Science.gov

Sample records for change impacts adaptation

  1. Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway.

    PubMed

    O'Brien, Karen; Eriksen, Siri; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto

    2006-03-01

    Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.

  2. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  3. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its

  4. Climate change and health: impacts, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation.

    PubMed

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Weaver, Haylee J

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change is progressing and health impacts have been observed in a number of countries, including Australia. The main health impacts will be due to direct heat exposure, extreme weather, air pollution, reduced local food production, food- and vectorborne infectious diseases and mental stress. The issue is one of major public health importance. Adaptation to reduce the effects of climate change involves many different sectors to minimise negative health outcomes. Wide-scale mitigation is also required, in order to reduce the effects of climate change. In addition, future urban design must be modified to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation can create co-benefits for both individual and community health, by reducing non-climate-related health hazard exposures and by encouraging health promoting behaviours and lifestyles.

  5. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION ON SUSTAINABILITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation presents the potential impacts that global climate change may have on the quality and quantity of water available to drinking water and wastewater treatment systems and the adaptations these systems might have to employ in order to remain in regulatory complianc...

  6. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION ON SUSTAINABILITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation presents the potential impacts that global climate change may have on the quality and quantity of water available to drinking water and wastewater treatment systems and the adaptations these systems might have to employ in order to remain in regulatory complianc...

  7. Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine.

    PubMed

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Abernethy, Kirsten E; Smart, Richard E; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2016-11-01

    The cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate-sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under suboptimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realize these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision-making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems.

  8. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  9. Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Options on Stream Flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Ashok; Bhave, Ajay; Raghuwanshi, Narendra

    2017-04-01

    Climate change, now, is taken as a reality with distressing effects on natural resources. It is an established fact that the negative impacts of climate change on freshwater will be greater with increased precipitation variability and seasonal runoff shifts on water supply and consequent impacts on water quantity and quality. Therefore, this sector necessitates identification of possible long term adaptation to changing climate and their impacts on regional water availability and demand. We assessed three stakeholder-identified adaptation options namely- construction of traditional ponds (TP), construction of check dams (CD) and increased forest cover (IFC) in Kangsabati reservoir catchment and command area, in India using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. Four high resolution ( 25km) regional climate model outputs and their ensemble for the period 2021-2050 provide a range of future climate (2021-2050) scenarios to force the WEAP model. Calibrated (1991-2000) and validated (2001-2010) WEAP model with reasonable NSE, R2 and PBIAS statistics has been used to test the effects of identified adaptation options on unmet demand of water, runoff generation and peak stream flow. Applying one traditional ponds for every 1 km2 area reduced unmet irrigation water demand by 4.5 x 109 m3 with reduced peak water demand from 0.78 x 109 m3 to 0.7 x 109 m3 compared to non-adaptation scenario. Increasing forest cover reduces runoff by 1000 times more than check dams and reduces monsoon season peak runoff rate as well. IFC demonstrates greater ability to meet the adaptation requirement by reducing high flows by upto 8 m3/s during monsoon season and increasing reservoir inflow by upto 0.5 m3/s during the lean season. While there is uncertainty in the magnitude of change of streamflow due to the effect of adaptation options, there is greater certainty in the sign of change. Results indicate that check dams and increasing forest cover as adaptation strategies have a

  10. Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation.

    PubMed

    Herrero, M; Addison, J; Bedelian, C; Carabine, E; Havlík, P; Henderson, B; Van De Steeg, J; Thornton, P K

    2016-11-01

    The authors discuss the main climate change impacts on pastoralist societies, including those on rangelands, livestock and other natural resources, and their extended repercussions on food security, incomes and vulnerability. The impacts of climate change on the rangelands of the globe and on the vulnerability of the people who inhabit them will be severe and diverse, and will require multiple, simultaneous responses. In higher latitudes, the removal of temperature constraints might increase pasture production and livestock productivity, but in tropical arid lands, the impacts are highly location specific, but mostly negative. The authors outline several adaptation options, ranging from implementing new technical practices and diversifying income sources to finding institutional support and introducing new market mechanisms, all of which are pivotal for enhancing the capacity of pastoralists to adapt to climate variability and change. Due to the dynamism of all the changes affecting pastoral societies, strategies that lock pastoral societies into specified development pathways could be maladaptive. Flexible and evolving combinations of practices and policies are the key to successful pastoral adaptation.

  11. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

  12. Climate change impacts and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2008-05-01

    The University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (CIG) is an interdisciplinary research group that studies the impacts of natural climate variability and change on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Through research and interaction with regional stakeholders, the CIG works to increase the resilience of the Pacific Northwest to fluctuations and long-term changes in climate. The CIG's research focuses on four key sectors of the PNW environment: water resources, aquatic ecosystems, forests, and coasts. This talk focuses specifically on the water resources sector of CIG, and its work addressing potential climate change impacts on the region's hydrology, and the potential for adaptation of water management, primarily through changes in reservoir operating policies, in response to projected effects of climate change. In the Pacific Northwest, as in most of the western U.S., warming temperatures are expected to result in lower winter snowpack, thus shifting seasonal runoff peaks earlier in the year, and increasing the duration of the summer and fall low flow period. The CIG is currently conducting a statewide assessment of the impacts of climate change for the State of Washington based on IPCC 2007 climate scenarios. Hydrologic scenarios have been generated by downscaling GCM scenarios to 1/16 degree latitude-longitude spatial resolution, and using these downscaled scenarios to force the macroscale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We describe the range of hydrologic projections recently performed for 16 downscaled GCMs and 2 global emissions scenarios for the next 100 years, with particular attention on the Puget Sound basin and the Yakima River basin. We also evaluate implications of the changing climate for the Columbia River reservoir system, both in terms of the tradeoff between reservoir releases made for salmonid protection and restoration and hydropower generation, and for flood control.

  13. Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Brown, Katrina; Marshall, Nadine; O'Brien, Karen

    2013-02-01

    Society's response to every dimension of global climate change is mediated by culture. We analyse new research across the social sciences to show that climate change threatens cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods that include the material and lived aspects of culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place. We find, furthermore, that there are important cultural dimensions to how societies respond and adapt to climate-related risks. We demonstrate how culture mediates changes in the environment and changes in societies, and we elucidate shortcomings in contemporary adaptation policy.

  14. Measuring adaptive capacity of urban wastewater infrastructure - Change impact and change propagation.

    PubMed

    Spiller, Marc

    2017-12-01

    The ability of urban wastewater systems to adapt and transform as a response to change is an integral part of sustainable development. This requires technology and infrastructure that can be adapted to new operational challenges. In this study the adaptive capacity of urban wastewater systems is evaluated by assessing the interdependencies between system components. In interdependent and therefore tightly coupled systems, changes to one systems component will require alteration elsewhere in the system, therefore impairing the capacity of these systems to be changed. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology to evaluate the adaptive capacity of urban wastewater systems by assessing how change drivers and innovation affect existing wastewater technology and infrastructure. The methodology comprises 7 steps and applies a change impact table and a design structure matrix that are completed by experts during workshops. Change impact tables quantify where change drivers, such as energy neutrality and resource recovery, require innovation in a system. The design structure matrix is a tool to quantify "emerging changes" that are a result of the innovation. The method is applied for the change driver of energy neutrality and shown for two innovations: a decentralised upflow anaerobic sludge blanket reactor followed by an anammox process and a conventional activated sludge treatment with enhanced chemical precipitation and high temperature-high pressure hydrolysis. The results show that the energy neutrality of wastewater systems can be address by either innovation in the decentralised or centralised treatment. The quantification of the emerging changes for both innovations indicates that the decentralised treatment is more disruptive, or in other words, the system needs to undergo more adaptation. It is concluded that the change impact and change propagation method can be used to characterise and quantify the technological or infrastructural transformations. In

  15. Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Mastrandrea, Michael D

    2010-07-13

    Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

  16. Congressional Briefing on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landau, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    During an 8 January 2010 congressional briefing on climate change cosponsored by AGU, speakers discussed the impacts of climate change in the United States and the ability of society to cope with these impacts. More than 200 congressional and federal agency staff attended the briefing, which featured Michael MacCracken, chief scientist for climate change programs at the Climate Institute; Kristie Ebi, executive director of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 2 Technical Support Unit; Katharine Jacobs, professor at the University of Arizona's Soil, Water and Environmental Science Department; and Susanne Moser, director and principal researcher at Susanne Moser Research and Consulting. The briefing was jointly sponsored by AGU, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Society, Ecological Society of America, and Pew Center on Global Climate Change. For more information about AGU's science policy program, visit http://www.agu.org/sci_pol/.

  17. America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilbanks, T.; Yohe, G.; Mengelt, C.; Casola, J.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study assessed, this study assessed how the nation can begin to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Much of the nation’s experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. Adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts. The Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change report calls for action at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector to assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and identify options for adaptation. Current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate change impacts at a scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report outlines a risk management framework that can be applied to assess vulnerabilities, compare and evaluate potential adaptation options, recognizing that decision makers across the country are likely to pursue a diverse set of adaptation measures. A major research effort is needed to improve knowledge about current and future vulnerabilities, explore new adaptation options, and better inform adaptation decisions. Therefore, the report also emphasizes the need to continually re-assess adaptation decisions as the experience and knowledge regarding effective adaptation evolves. A national adaptation strategy is needed in which the federal government would support and enhance adaptation activities undertaken by state, local, tribal, and private entities; identify and modify

  18. Climate change impacts and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    The University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (CIG) is an interdisciplinary research group that studies the impacts of natural climate variability and change on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Through research and interaction with regional stakeholders, the CIG works to increase the resilience of the Pacific Northwest to fluctuations and long-term changes in climate. The CIG's research focuses on four key sectors of the PNW environment: water resources, aquatic ecosystems, forests, and coasts. This talk focuses specifically on the water resources sector of CIG, and its work addressing potential climate change impacts on the region's hydrology being undertaken under an ongoing statewide climate impacts assessment (known as HB 1303). In the Pacific Northwest, as in most of the western U.S., warming temperatures are expected to result in lower winter snowpack, thus shifting seasonal runoff peaks earlier in the year, and increasing the duration of the summer and fall low flow period. The ongoing HB1303 work is based on IPCC 2007 climate scenarios. Hydrologic scenarios have been generated by downscaling GCM scenarios to 1/16 degree latitude-longitude spatial resolution, and using these downscaled scenarios to force the macroscale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We describe the range of hydrologic projections recently performed for 16 downscaled GCMs and 2 global emissions scenarios for the next 100 years, with particular attention on reservoir systems serving water supply needs in the Puget Sound basin and irrigation water in the Yakima River basin. We also evaluate implications of the changing climate for the Columbia River reservoir system, both in terms of the tradeoff between reservoir releases made for salmonid protection and restoration and hydropower generation, and for flood control.

  19. Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change.

    PubMed

    Reser, Joseph P; Swim, Janet K

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to adequately communicate and explain how a more psychological framing of the human dimensions of global environmental change can greatly inform and enhance effective and collaborative climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research. An integrative framework is provided that identifies and considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes relating to climate change adaptation, with particular emphasis given to environmental stress and stress and coping perspectives. This psychological perspective on climate change adaptation highlights crucial aspects of adaptation that have been neglected in the arena of climate change science. Of particular importance are intra-individual and social "psychological adaptation" processes that powerfully mediate public risk perceptions and understandings, effective coping responses and resilience, overt behavioral adjustment and change, and psychological and social impacts. This psychological window on climate change adaptation is arguably indispensable to genuinely multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and policy initiatives addressing the impacts of climate change.

  20. Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery T.; Brown, Helen L.; Katscherian, Dianne

    2011-04-15

    Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location. Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to

  1. Adapting to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vimont, D.; Liebl, D.

    2012-12-01

    The mission of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI; http://www.wicci.wisc.edu) is to assess the impacts of climate change on Wisconsin's natural, human, and built environments; and to assist in developing, recommending, and implementing climate adaptation strategies in Wisconsin. WICCI originated in 2007 as a partnership between the University of Wisconsin Nelson Institute and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and has since grown to include numerous other state, public, and private institutions. In 2011, WICCI released its First Assessment Report, which documents the efforts of over 200 individuals around the state in assessing vulnerability and estimating the risk that regional climate change poses to Wisconsin. The success of WICCI as an organization can be traced to its existence as a partnership between academic and state institutions, and as a boundary organization that catalyzes cross-disciplinary efforts between science and policy. WICCI's organizational structure and its past success at assessing climate impacts in Wisconsin will be briefly discussed. As WICCI moves into its second phase, it is increasing its emphasis on the second part of its mission: development, and implementation of adaptation strategies. Towards these goals WICCI has expanded its organizational structure to include a Communications and Outreach Committee that further ensures a necessary two-way communication of information between stakeholders / decision makers, and scientific efforts. WICCI is also increasing its focus on place-based efforts that include climate change information as one part of an integrated effort at sustainable development. The talk will include a discussion of current outreach and education efforts, as well as future directions for WICCI efforts.

  2. The environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fezzi, Carlo; Harwood, Amii R.; Lovett, Andrew A.; Bateman, Ian J.

    2015-03-01

    Encouraging adaptation is an essential aspect of the policy response to climate change. Adaptation seeks to reduce the harmful consequences and harness any beneficial opportunities arising from the changing climate. However, given that human activities are the main cause of environmental transformations worldwide, it follows that adaptation itself also has the potential to generate further pressures, creating new threats for both local and global ecosystems. From this perspective, policies designed to encourage adaptation may conflict with regulation aimed at preserving or enhancing environmental quality. This aspect of adaptation has received relatively little consideration in either policy design or academic debate. To highlight this issue, we analyse the trade-offs between two fundamental ecosystem services that will be impacted by climate change: provisioning services derived from agriculture and regulating services in the form of freshwater quality. Results indicate that climate adaptation in the farming sector will generate fundamental changes in river water quality. In some areas, policies that encourage adaptation are expected to be in conflict with existing regulations aimed at improving freshwater ecosystems. These findings illustrate the importance of anticipating the wider impacts of human adaptation to climate change when designing environmental policies.

  3. Adapting to and Coping with the Threat and Impacts of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reser, Joseph P.; Swim, Janet K.

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to…

  4. Adapting to and Coping with the Threat and Impacts of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reser, Joseph P.; Swim, Janet K.

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to…

  5. Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

  6. Approaches to evaluating climate change impacts on species: a guide to initiating the adaptation planning process.

    PubMed

    Rowland, Erika L; Davison, Jennifer E; Graumlich, Lisa J

    2011-03-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.

  7. Health impacts of heat in a changing climate: how can emerging science inform urban adaptation planning?

    PubMed Central

    Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Morita, Haruka

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat is one of the most important global causes of weather-related mortality, and climate change is leading to more frequent and intense heat waves. Recent epidemiologic findings on heat-related health impacts have reinforced our understanding of mortality impacts of extreme heat and have shown a range of impacts on morbidity outcomes including cardiovascular, respiratory and mental health responses. Evidence is also emerging on temporal trends towards decreasing exposure-response, probably reflecting autonomous population adaptation. Many cities are actively engaged in the development of heat adaptation plans to reduce future health impacts. Epidemiologic research into the evolution of local heat-health responses over time can greatly aid adaptation planning for heat, prevention of adverse health outcomes among vulnerable populations, as well as evaluation of new interventions. Such research will be facilitated by the formation of research partnerships involving epidemiologists, climate scientists, and local stakeholders. PMID:25422797

  8. Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

    PubMed

    Chrétien, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment--a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health--this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD.

  9. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    PubMed Central

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change. PMID:23618474

  10. Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    PubMed

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-30

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change.

  11. Approaches to evaluating climate change impacts on species: A guide to initiating the adaptation planning process

    Treesearch

    Erika L. Rowland; Jennifer E. Davison; Lisa J. Graumlich

    2011-01-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating...

  12. Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Solomon Islands: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    PubMed Central

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands’ responses to climate change. PMID:25168977

  13. Health impacts of climate change in the Solomon Islands: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    PubMed

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-06-25

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands' responses to climate change.

  14. The state of climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation research: strengthening knowledge base and community

    SciTech Connect

    Wilbanks, Thomas J; Rosenzweig, Dr. Cynthia

    2010-01-01

    It has taken about 35 years for scientists to bring the global climate change issue to the attention of the world s people and their leaders. With the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference of December 2009, it was hoped that the issue identification phase would segue at last into the solution phase. However, the outcome of COP15 shows that interdisciplinary work on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability is still critically needed to advance the development of the solution phase.

  15. Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options in Vulnerable Agro-Landscapes in East-Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manful, D.; Tscherning, K.; Kersebaum, K.; Dietz, J.; Dietrich, O.; Gomani, C.; Böhm, H.; Büchner, M.; Lischeid, G.,; Ojoyi, M.,

    2009-04-01

    Climate change poses a risk to the livelihoods of large populations in the developing world, especially in Africa. In East Africa, climate change is expected to affect the spatial distribution and quantity of precipitation. The proposed project will assess aspects of climate impacts and adaptation options in Tanzania. The project will attempt to quantify (1) projected impacts including: variability in temperature, rainfall, flooding and drought (2) the affect changes in 1. will have on specific sectors namely agriculture (food security), water resources and ecosystem services. The cumulative effects of diminished surface and ground water flow on agricultural production coupled with increasing demand for food due to increase in human pressure will also be evaluated. Expected outputs of the project include (1) downscaled climate change scenarios for different IPCC emission scenarios (2) model based estimations of climate change impacts on hydrological cycle and assessment of land use options (3) scenarios of sustainable livelihoods and resilient agro-landscapes under climate change (4) assessment of adaptive practices and criteria for best adaptation practices. The presentation will focus on novel approaches that focus on the use of agro-ecosystem models to predict local and regional impacts of climate variability on food with specific needs of the end-user factored into model set-up process. In other words, model configurations adapted to the information needs of a specific end-user or audience are evaluated. The perception of risk within different end-users (small scale farmer versus a regional or state level policy maker) are explicitly taken into consideration with the overarching aim of maximizing the impact of the results obtained from computer-based simulations.

  16. Cotton and Climate Change: Impacts and Options to mitigate and adapt.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ton, P.

    2012-04-01

    Cotton & Climate change: Impacts and Options to mitigate and adapt. Climate change will have major impacts on cotton production and trade depending on production location. This report to be presented analyses the impacts of climate change on cotton production and trade in the main producing areas world-wide, and the options available to mitigate and to adapt to these impacts. Cotton production is both a contributor to climate change and subject to its impacts. Agricultural production, processing, trade and consumption contribute up to 40% of the world's emissions when forest clearance is included in the calculation. Cotton production contributes to between 0.3% and 1% of total global GHG emissions. Cotton has a certain resilience to high temperatures and drought due to its vertical tap root. The crop is, however, sensitive to water availability, particularly at the height of flowering and boll formation. Rising temperatures favour plant development, unless day temperatures exceed 32°C. New production areas may be established where cotton was not grown before. Increases in atmospheric CO2 will also favour plant development. In turn, increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges. Overall, the negative impacts of climate change on cotton production relate to the reduced availability of water for irrigation, in particular in Xinjiang (China), Pakistan, Australia and the western United States. Heat stress risks creating depressed yields in Pakistan in particular, while in other countries limited increases in temperatures could favour cotton plant growth and lengthen the cotton growing season. The impacts of climate change on rainfall will likely be positive in the Yellow River area (China), in India, the south-eastern United States and south-eastern Anatolia (Turkey). Impacts on rainfall in Brazil and West and Central Africa are unclear. Mitigation and adaptation to climate change in cotton production, as in agriculture

  17. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

    2016-01-01

    Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reidsma, Pytrik; Wolf, Joost; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Schaap, Ben F.; Mandryk, Maryia; Verhagen, Jan; van Ittersum, Martin K.

    2015-04-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.

  19. Regional aspects of climate change impacts and related adaptation options in European agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eitzinger, J.

    2009-09-01

    Through a change in climatic conditions and variability, for example, extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) are likely to occur more frequently in different spatial and time scales in future. Since agriculture is one the man' activities more dependant on weather behaviour, the impact on risks of agricultural production is indeed one of the most important issues in climate change assessments. Therefore an early recognition of risks and implementation of adaptation strategies is crucial as anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Results of climate change impact and adaptation studies often show considerable different results, depending on the spatial scale of regionalisation. However, for a decision maker, only a high spatial resolution of related study results are useful as it can represent local conditions and its spatial variablitiy much better. Therefore the ADAGIO project (adagio-eu.org) was designed to focus on regional studies in order to uncover regional specific problems. In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientifc studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilites and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat is the main factor having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the mediterranean region, but also in the Central and Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. An important aspect is also that there are increasing regional differences in the crop production potential in Europe due to climate change and that

  20. Climate change and adaptational impacts in coastal systems: the case of sea defences.

    PubMed

    Firth, Louise B; Mieszkowska, Nova; Thompson, Richard C; Hawkins, Stephen J

    2013-09-01

    We briefly review how coastal ecosystems are responding to and being impacted by climate change, one of the greatest challenges facing society today. In adapting to rising and stormier seas associated with climate change, coastal defence structures are proliferating and becoming dominant coastal features, particularly in urbanised areas. Whilst the primary function of these structures is to protect coastal property and infrastructure, they inevitably have a significant secondary impact on the local environment and ecosystems. In this review we outline some of the negative and positive effects of these structures on physical processes, impacts on marine species, and the novel engineering approaches that have been employed to improve the ecological value of these structures in recent years. Finally we outline guidelines for an environmentally sensitive approach to design of such structures in the marine environment.

  1. Adaptation to Externally Driven Change: The Impact of Political Change on Job Satisfaction in the Public Sector

    PubMed Central

    Tabvuma, Vurain; Bui, Hong T M; Homberg, Fabian

    2014-01-01

    This article uses a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the adaptation of job satisfaction to externally driven political change in the public sector. This is important because democratic government bureaucracies often experience changes in leadership after elections. The analyses are based on data drawn from a large longitudinal data set, the British Household Panel Survey. Findings indicate that the impact of political elections is largely weak and temporary and is only present for men. For women, the internal processes of the organization tend to be more important. These findings suggest that changes in political leadership may not be associated with fundamental changes in policy. PMID:25598554

  2. Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

    2014-12-01

    Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in

  3. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lnkao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Matthias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2007-01-01

    Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e

  4. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lnkao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Matthias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2007-01-01

    Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e

  5. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Mattias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

  6. Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

    2013-04-01

    Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers

  7. Human Health Impacts of and Public Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2007-12-01

    Weather and climate are among the factors that determine the geographic range and incidence of several major causes of ill health, including undernutrition, diarrheal diseases and other conditions due to unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation, and malaria. The Human Health chapter in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, and that projected climate change will increase the risks of climate-sensitive health outcomes, particularly in lower-income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries. Those at greatest risk include the urban poor, older adults, children, traditional societies, subsistence farmers, and coastal populations, particularly in low income countries. The cause-and-effect chain from climate change to changing patterns of health determinants and outcomes is complex and includes socioeconomic, institutional, and other factors. The severity of future impacts will be determined by changes in climate as well as by concurrent changes in nonclimatic factors and by the adaptation measures implemented to reduce negative impacts. Public health has a long history of effectively intervening to reduce risks to the health of individuals and communities. Lessons learned from more than 150 years of research and intervention can provide insights to guide the design and implementation of effective and efficient interventions to reduce the current and projected impacts of climate variability and change.

  8. IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its

  9. Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

    PubMed

    Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

    Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

  10. Impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on crop production in Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2012-04-01

    The vulnerability of agricultural to climate change is of particular interest to policy makers because the high social and economical importance of agriculture sector in Nigeria, which contributes approximately 40 percent to total GDP and support 70 percent of the population. It is necessary to investigate the potential climate change impacts in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that will be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and implement and develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these changes. In this framework, this study aimed to assess the climate change impacts on Nigerian agricultural sector and to explore some of potential adaptation strategies for the most important crops in the food basket of the Country. The analysis was made using the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that allows to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. In this analysis, for each selected crop, the models included into DSSAT-CSM software were ran, after a calibration phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output were "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models in order to have a wide variety of possible climate projections for impact analysis. Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for each Agro-Ecological Zone of Nigeria. The climate impact assessment was made by comparing the yield obtained with the climate data for the present period and the yield obtainable under future changed climate conditions. The models ran by keeping

  11. Impact of climate change on health and strategies for mitigation and adaptation.

    PubMed

    Deb, Alok K; Kanungo, Suman; Deb, Manjari; Nair, Gopinath B

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its negative impacts on health are now globally recognized. A wide variety of diseases and health conditions - ranging from heat and radiation-related illnesses to water and vector-borne diseases, under-nutrition, respiratory and cardiac problems, drowning, injuries and mental stress arising from extreme and sudden weather events and their resultant population displacements - all have been associated with various components of changing climate. However, the exact nature and extent of such impacts are yet to be firmly established since many other non-climate factors also produce or affect similar outcomes. This calls for more research specially from the underdeveloped countries, where such impacts are disproportionately more but reliable data are remarkably less. Recognizing the importance of human influences on global warming, almost all countries in the world have undertaken some kind of policies and measures to mitigate adverse climatic changes. Unfortunately, even without further addition of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in our climate, the amount of GHGs already released has the potential to continue the damages for many more decades to come. Thus, all countries should also place priorities in assessing their own vulnerabilities from climate change and take adaptive measures accordingly. As climate change exerts its impact simultaneously in many non-health sectors as well, this would require strong intersectoral cooperation at various levels.

  12. Adapting water treatment design and operations to the impacts of global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Robert M.; Li, Zhiwei; Buchberger, Steven G.

    2011-12-01

    It is anticipated that global climate change will adversely impact source water quality in many areas of the United States and will therefore, potentially, impact the design and operation of current and future water treatment systems. The USEPA has initiated an effort called the Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP) which is intended to develop tools and techniques that can assess the impact of global climate change on urban drinking water and wastewater infrastructure. A three step approach for assessing climate change impacts on water treatment operation and design is being persude in this effort. The first step is the stochastic characterization of source water quality, the second step is the application of the USEPA Water Treatment Plant model and the third step is the application of cost algorithms to provide a metric that can be used to assess the coat impact of climate change. A model has been validated using data collected from Cincinnati's Richard Miller Water Treatment Plant for the USEPA Information Collection Rule (ICR) database. An analysis of the water treatment processes in response to assumed perturbations in raw water quality identified TOC, pH, and bromide as the three most important parameters affecting performance of the Miller WTP. The Miller Plant was simulated using the EPA WTP model to examine the impact of these parameters on selected regulated water quality parameters. Uncertainty in influent water quality was analyzed to estimate the risk of violating drinking water maximum contaminant levels (MCLs).Water quality changes in the Ohio River were projected for 2050 using Monte Carlo simulation and the WTP model was used to evaluate the effects of water quality changes on design and operation. Results indicate that the existing Miller WTP might not meet Safe Drinking Water Act MCL requirements for certain extreme future conditions. However, it was found that the risk of MCL violations under future conditions could be controlled by

  13. Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2014-01-01

    The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

  14. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Kirshen, P. H.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Rosenzweig, C. E.; Ruth, M.; Solecki, W.; Tarr, J. A.

    2007-05-01

    Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been enunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAP) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy makers, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are working on a chapter of SAP 4.6 ("Analysis of the Effects of Global Chance on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems") wherein we wish to describe the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the thoughts and ideas that are being formulated for our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We wish to present these ideas and concepts as a "work in progress" that are subject to several rounds of review, and we invite comments from listeners at this session on the rationale and veracity of our thoughts. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts

  15. Climate Change Impacts on Transportation; Groundwater Elevation, Road Performance, and Robust Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirshen, P. H.; Knott, J. F.; Ray, P.; Elshaer, M.; Daniel, J.; Jacobs, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Transportation climate change vulnerability and adaptation studies have primarily focused on surface-water flooding from sea-level rise (SLR); little attention has been given to the effects of climate change and SLR on groundwater and subsequent impacts on the unbound foundation layers of coastal-road infrastructure. The magnitude of service-life reduction depends on the height of the groundwater in the unbound pavement materials, the pavement structure itself, and the loading. Using a steady-state groundwater model, and a multi-layer elastic pavement evaluation model, the strain changes in the layers can be determined as a function of parameter values and the strain changes translated into failure as measured by number of loading cycles to failure. For a section of a major coastal road in New Hampshire, future changes in sea-level, precipitation, temperature, land use, and groundwater pumping are characterized by deep uncertainty. Parameters that describe the groundwater system such as hydraulic conductivity can be probabilistically described while road characteristics are assumed to be deterministic. To understand the vulnerability of this road section, a bottom-up planning approach was employed over time where the combinations of parameter values that cause failure were determined and their plausibility of their occurring was analyzed. To design a robust adaptation strategy that will function reasonably well in the present and the future given the large number of uncertain parameter values, performance of adaptation options were investigated. Adaptation strategies that were considered include raising the road, load restrictions, increasing pavement layer thicknesses, replacing moisture-sensitive materials with materials that are not moisture sensitive, improving drainage systems, and treatment of the underlying materials.

  16. Adaptation to impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and allergic respiratory diseases.

    PubMed

    Beggs, Paul J

    2010-08-01

    Climate change has the potential to have many significant impacts on aeroallergens such as pollen and mould spores, and therefore related diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis. This paper critically reviews this topic, with a focus on the potential adaptation measures that have been identified to date. These are aeroallergen monitoring; aeroallergen forecasting; allergenic plant management; planting practices and policies; urban/settlement planning; building design and heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC); access to health care and medications; education; and research.

  17. Adaptation to Impacts of Climate Change on Aeroallergens and Allergic Respiratory Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Beggs, Paul J.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change has the potential to have many significant impacts on aeroallergens such as pollen and mould spores, and therefore related diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis. This paper critically reviews this topic, with a focus on the potential adaptation measures that have been identified to date. These are aeroallergen monitoring; aeroallergen forecasting; allergenic plant management; planting practices and policies; urban/settlement planning; building design and heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC); access to health care and medications; education; and research. PMID:20948943

  18. Key landscape ecology metrics for assessing climate change adaptation options: rate of change and patchiness of impacts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    López-Hoffman, Laura; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Miller, Marc L.

    2013-01-01

    Under a changing climate, devising strategies to help stakeholders adapt to alterations to ecosystems and their services is of utmost importance. In western North America, diminished snowpack and river flows are causing relatively gradual, homogeneous (system-wide) changes in ecosystems and services. In addition, increased climate variability is also accelerating the incidence of abrupt and patchy disturbances such as fires, floods and droughts. This paper posits that two key variables often considered in landscape ecology—the rate of change and the degree of patchiness of change—can aid in developing climate change adaptation strategies. We use two examples from the “borderland” region of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In piñon-juniper woodland die-offs that occurred in the southwestern United States during the 2000s, ecosystem services suddenly crashed in some parts of the system while remaining unaffected in other locations. The precise timing and location of die-offs was uncertain. On the other hand, slower, homogeneous change, such as the expected declines in water supply to the Colorado River delta, will likely impact the entire ecosystem, with ecosystem services everywhere in the delta subject to alteration, and all users likely exposed. The rapidity and spatial heterogeneity of faster, patchy climate change exemplified by tree die-off suggests that decision-makers and local stakeholders would be wise to operate under a Rawlsian “veil of ignorance,” and implement adaptation strategies that allow ecosystem service users to equitably share the risk of sudden loss of ecosystem services before actual ecosystem changes occur. On the other hand, in the case of slower, homogeneous, system-wide impacts to ecosystem services as exemplified by the Colorado River delta, adaptation strategies can be implemented after the changes begin, but will require a fundamental rethinking of how ecosystems and services are used and valued. In

  19. Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

    PubMed

    van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

    2015-05-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Using Copernicus earth observation services to monitor climate change impacts and adaptations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, Daniel; Zebisch, Marc; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Schönthaler, Konstanze; von Andrian-Werburg, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    In the last years, earth observation made a big leap towards an operational monitoring of the state of environment. Remote sensing provides for instance information on the dynamics, trends and anomalies of snow and glaciers, vegetation, soil moisture or water temperature. In particular, the European Copernicus initiative offers new opportunities through new satellites with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, operational services for environmental monitoring and an open data access policy. With the Copernicus climate change service and the ESA climate change initiative, specific earth observation programs are in place to address the impacts of climate change. However, such products and services are until now rarely picked up in the field of policy or decision making oriented climate impact or climate risk assessments. In this talk, we will present results of a study, which focus on the question, if and how remote sensing approaches could be integrated into operational monitoring activities of climate impacts and response measures on a national and subnational scale. We assessed all existing and planned Copernicus services regarding their relevance for climate impact monitoring by comparing them against the indication fields from an indicator system for climate impact and response monitoring in Germany, which has lately been developed in the framework of the German national adaptation strategy. For several climate impact or response indicators, an immediate integration of remote sensing data could be identified and been recommended. For these cases, we will show practical examples on the benefit of remote sensing data. For other indication fields, promising approaches were found, which need further development. We argue that remote sensing is a very valuable complement to the existing indicator schemes by contributing with spatial explicit, timely information but not always easy to integrate with classical approaches, which are oriented towards consistent long

  1. A health impact assessment framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation planning for climate change.

    PubMed

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

  2. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru. PMID:25514146

  3. Climate change and health in british columbia: projected impacts and a proposed agenda for adaptation research and policy.

    PubMed

    Ostry, Aleck; Ogborn, Malcolm; Bassil, Kate L; Takaro, Tim K; Allen, Diana M

    2010-03-01

    This is a case study describing how climate change may affect the health of British Columbians and to suggest a way forward to promote health and policy research, and adaptation to these changes. After reviewing the limited evidence of the impacts of climate change on human health we have developed five principles to guide the development of research and policy to better predict future impacts of climate change on health and to enhance adaptation to these change in BC. We suggest that, with some modification, these principles will be useful to policy makers in other jurisdictions.

  4. Adaptive Management for Climate Change Impact for Water Sector in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Jun

    2013-04-01

    China, as a larger developing country in the world, in facing to bigger challenges than before on wisely managing water resources to support rapidly socio-economic development in 2020 and beyond. China has a vast area of 9.6 million sq. km and relatively abundant water resources with ranked sixth in the world after Brazil, the Russian Federation, Canada, the United States and Indonesia in terms of absolute amount of annual runoff. However, given its large population of over 1.3 billion, China has a very low per capita amount (about one quarter of the world average) of water resources and, is therefore one of the countries with the most severe shortage of water in the world, particular North China. North China is one of very important regions in China. For this region, population has 0.437 billion in 2000 that occupies 35% of total in China, GDP reaches 386 billion US that is also 32% of total in China. Irrigation area of North China is 42% of total in China, and agricultural product has 40% of total in China. However, it is the most water shortage area in China. For instance, water resources per capita in Hai River Basin have only 270 cubic meters, which is only 1/7 of the national average and 1/24 of the world average. Water Resource Vulnerability under impact of both climate change and human activities are rather significantly. This presentation will focus on two issues: (1) how to screening climate changes impact to water sector, and how to quantify water resource vulnerability related to impact of climate change and human activity? (2) how to take adaptation & wisely manage water to changing environment on existing water projects and new water programme & water policy in China? A screening process for climate impact to water sector in North China was proposed. A new study on quantifying water resource vulnerability, based on three practical and workable, i.e., the use to availability ratio, water crowding and per capita water use, were developed. Four case

  5. Adaptation Pathway of Low Impact Development Planning under Climate Change for a Sustainable Rural Community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, P. Y.; Tung, C. P.

    2016-12-01

    The study focuses on developing the methodology of adaptation pathway for storm water management in a community scale. Following previous results on adaptation procedures including problem and goal setup, current risk assessment and analysis, future risk assessment and analysis, and adaptation options identification and evaluation, the study aims at analyzing adaptation pathway planning and implementation, namely the fifth step, for applying low impact development (LID). Based on the efficacy analyses of the feasible adaptation options, an adaptation pathway map can be build. Each pathway is a combination of the adaptation measures arranged in certain order. The developed adaptation pathway map visualizes the relative effectiveness and the connection of the adaptation measures. In addition, the tipping points of the system can be clearly identified and the triggers can be defined accordingly. There are multiple choices of pathways in an adaptation pathway map, which can be referred as pathway candidates. To ensure the applicability and operability, the methodology of adaptation pathway analysis is applied to a case study. Required information for developing an adaptation pathway map includes the scores of the adaptation options on the criteria, namely the effects, costs, immediacy, and side effect. Feasible adaptation options for the design case are dredging, pipeline expansion, pumping station, LID and detention pond. By ranking the options according to the criteria, LID is found dominating dredging and pumping station in this case. The information of the pathway candidates can be further used by the stakeholders to select the most suitable and promising pathway.

  6. Agricultural Intensification as a Mechanism of Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kyle, P.; Calvin, K. V.; le Page, Y.; Patel, P.; West, T. O.; Wise, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The research, policy, and NGO communities have devoted significant attention to the potential for agricultural intensification, or closure of "yield gaps," to alleviate future global hunger, poverty, climate change impacts, and other threats. However, because the research to this point has focused on biophysically attainable yields—assuming optimal choices under ideal conditions—the presently available work has not yet addressed the likely responses of the agricultural sector to real-world conditions in the future. This study investigates endogenous agricultural intensification in response to global climate change impacts—that is, intensification independent of policies or other exogenous interventions to promote yield gap closure. The framework for the analysis is a set of scenarios to 2100 in the GCAM global integrated assessment model, enhanced to include endogenous irrigation, fertilizer application, and yields, in each of 283 land use regions, with maximum yields based on the 95th percentile of attainable yields in a recent global assessment. We assess three levels of agricultural climate impacts, using recent global gridded crop model datasets: none, low (LPJmL), and high (Pegasus). Applying formulations for decomposition of climate change impacts response developed in prior AgMIP work, we find that at the global level, availability of high-yielding technologies mitigates price shocks and shifts the agricultural sector's climate response modestly towards intensification, away from cropland expansion and reduced production. At the regional level, the behavior is more complex; nevertheless, availability of high-yielding production technologies enhances the inter-regional shifts in agricultural production that are induced by climate change, complemented by commensurate changes in trade patterns. The results highlight the importance of policies to facilitate yield gap closure and inter-regional trade as mechanisms for adapting to climate change

  7. Importance of impacts scenarios for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zullo, J.; Macedo, C.; Pinto, H. S.; Assad, E. D.; Koga Vicente, A.

    2012-12-01

    The great possibility that the climate is already changing, and the most drastic way possible, increases the challenge of agricultural engineering, especially in environmentally vulnerable areas and in regions where agriculture has a high economic and social importance. Knowledge of potential impacts that may be caused by changes in water and thermal regimes in coming decades is increasingly strategic, as they allow the development of techniques to adapt agriculture to climate change and therefore minimizes the risk of undesirable impacts, for example, in food and nutritional security. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to describe a way to generate impacts scenarios caused by anomalies of precipitation and temperature in the definition of climate risk zoning of an agricultural crop very important in the tropics, such as the sugar cane, especially in central-southern Brazil, which is one of its main world producers. A key point here is the choice of the climate model to be used, considering that 23 different models were used in the fourth IPCC report published in 2007. The number and range of available models requires the definition of criteria for choosing the most suitable for the preparation of the impacts scenarios. One way proposed and used in this work is based on the definition of two groups of models according to 27 technical attributes of them. The clustering of 23 models in two groups, with a model representing each group (UKMO_HadCM3 and MIROC3.2_medres), assists the generation and comparison of impacts scenarios, making them more representative and useful. Another important aspect in the generation of impacts scenarios is the estimate of the relative importance of the anomalies of precipitation and temperature, which are the most commonly used. To assess the relative importance of the anomalies are generated scenarios considering an anomaly at a time and both together. The impacts scenarios for a high emission of greenhouse gases (A2), from 2010

  8. Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic: adaptation to climate change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

    2010-05-01

    Extreme temperature events have pronounced negative impacts on ecosystems and society, including human health effects. The study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (central Europe) during 1986-2006. Declining trends in the mortality impacts are found in summer as well as in transition seasons, in spite of rising temperature trends (warming by 1.4 deg. C in summer over the 21-year period). The finding remains unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability. The results suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that influence vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address associated uncertainties in studies dealing with climate change projections of temperature-related mortality.

  9. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  10. Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.

    PubMed

    Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens

    2014-08-01

    Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts.

  11. Impact of farm level adaptation to climate change on agricultural productivity and farmers' wellbeing: Empirical evidence from Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abid, Muhammad; Scheffran, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is projected to adversely affect the agricultural sector and attached rural livelihoods, particularly in the developing countries. Hence adaptation to climate change is crucial to support agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods. The current study is based on comprehensive cross sectional data collected through 450 face-to-face interviews with farmers from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab province, Pakistan. This paper aims to examine the factors that influence the farmers' adaptation decisions and to assess the impact of farm level adaptation on crop productivity and farmers' wellbeing. The paper uses correlation analysis, binary logistic regression and propensity score matching techniques in order to explore the study objectives. The results of the study indicate that education, age, land holdings, farmer-to-farmer interaction, access to weather forecasting information and location in agro-ecological zone does have significant impact on farmers' decision to adapt to climate change. Major adaptation measures adopted by farmers were changing planting dates, changing cropping varieties, planting shaded trees and changing input-mix. Moreover the study found a positive and significant impact of adaptation on productivity of all major crops (wheat, sugarcane, maize and rice) and on farmers' wellbeing in term of farm income. Furthermore, the study also found that the extent of adaptation benefits increases with the number of adaptation measures. The findings of the study suggest to focus on farmers' education and easy access to climate-specific information for better adaptation at farm level and improved farm wellbeing. Key words: Climate change; Farm level adaptation; crop productivity; farmers' wellbeing; Pakistan

  12. Robust Impacts of Climate Change in Europe and Why Study Scale is Important for Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, C.; Andersson, J.; Olsson, J.; Bosshard, T.; Yang, W.; Berg, P.; Arheimer, B.

    2015-12-01

    for climate change impact studies where the regional-scale results and their known uncertainties are considered together with local-scale studies designed specifically for the changes to which a system must be adapted. We illustrate the value of the new method in a number of real case studies for various societal sectors.

  13. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  14. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  15. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    PubMed

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  16. Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in northern India: impacts and adaptation strategies.

    PubMed

    Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda

    2013-12-01

    Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of a waterborne infectious disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of northern India. A conceptual framework is presented for climate exposure response relationships based on studies from different countries, as empirical studies and appropriate epidemiological data sets for India are lacking. Four climate variables are included: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. Applying the conceptual framework to the latest regional climate projections for northern India shows increases between present and future (2040s), varying spatially from no change to an increase of 21% in diarrhoea incidences, with 13.1% increase on average for the Ganges basin. We discuss three types of measures against diarrhoeal disease: reactive actions, preventive actions and national policy options. Preventive actions have the potential to counterbalance this expected increase. However, given the limited progress in reducing incidences over the past decade consorted actions and effective implementation and integration of existing policies are needed.

  17. Climate Change and Waterborne Diarrhoea in Northern India: Impact and Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda

    2013-04-01

    Although some studies showed the vulnerability of human health to climate change (e.g. 22.000 to 45.000 excess mortality cases during the heat waves in Europe, or the association of malaria outbreaks with El Niño) a clear quantification of the increased risks attributable to climate change is often lacking. Even more complicated are the assessments of the adaptation measures for this sector. Adaptation measures are in most cases very site specific. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of waterborne disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of Northern India. India is by far the leading country when it comes to child mortality under five years caused by diarrhoea and accounted for 386.600 deaths in 2007. Estimates on the increased risk of diarrhoea as a result of increased temperature in the 2030ies range between 8-11%. Uncertainties around these estimates mainly relate to the few studies that have characterized the exposure-response relationship and inter-model discrepancy of climate models. The influence of other climate parameters than temperature on diarrhoea in the future has not been assessed. As empirical studies and surveillance data for India are lacking we developed a conceptual framework for climate exposure-response relationships based on a literature review and applied it to future climate projections for the Ganges basin. Four climate variables are analysed: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. In an analysis of reports on diarrhoea outbreaks we show the spatial and temporal distribution over the subcontinent. Most cases of diarrhoea occur during the hot summer (23%) and the wet and humid monsoon (57%) months. These reports often suggest sewage and pipe leakage as the leading cause of the local outbreaks. We demonstrate the applicability of the conceptual framework for the two districts in West Bengal, North and South 24 Parganas. All climate

  18. Research Priorities on Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation: Responding to the Climate Change Challenge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Horton, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    A major challenge of the research community is to provide relevant information to policymakers on vulnerability, impacts and adaptation (VIA) in the context of a changing climate, and to do so in a coherent and coordinated way. The Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (PROVIA) aims to respond to this challenge by harmonizing, mobilizing, and communicating the growing knowledgebase on VIA to relevant audiences. PROVIA, in consultation with experts and policymakers, has developed a set of Research Priorities for the global VIA research community, whose activities are primarily carried out by individual researchers and research institutions. The Research Priorities include new and emerging topics as well as topics that have long been recognized as important but for which research is still required. To develop the Research Priorities, input was gathered from expert and policymaker communities through separate solicitation pathways. The expert prioritization of research topics began with a gap analysis based on existing literature. The members of the PROVIA Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) then participated in a two-day Foresight Panel that focused on determining selection criteria for inclusion in the Research Priorities, grouping the research topics into themes, and identifying additional topics. A newly framed list of 54 priority research topics was generated by compiling the SSC selections and updated findings from new literature. This list was distributed as an electronic survey to a broad group of experts in the VIA community. Respondents were asked to score each topic, provide suggestions for additional topics, and offer comments. A research prioritization process with policymakers was developed in parallel with the expert community process described above and included representatives from both developed and developing countries. The rankings of the expert and policymaker processes were then combined, along with an

  19. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Water Supply Security through Adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation is to describe the water resources adaptation program (WRAP) at the U.S.EPA National Risk Management Research Laboratory, and to highlight initial research results on hydroclimatic periodicity and changes and on adaptation measures including sustainable water in...

  20. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Water Supply Security through Adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation is to describe the water resources adaptation program (WRAP) at the U.S.EPA National Risk Management Research Laboratory, and to highlight initial research results on hydroclimatic periodicity and changes and on adaptation measures including sustainable water in...

  1. The impact of climate change on grain maize production over Europe - adaptation with different irrigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceglar, A.; Srivastava, A. K.; Chukaliev, O.; Duveiller, G.; Niemeyer, S.

    2013-12-01

    The spatial distribution of water deficit and maize yield deficit across Europe has been compared between current and expected climatic conditions in the near future (time window 2030). Maize yields and water requirements were simulated using the WOFOST (World Food Studies) crop growth model. In our study, the priority has been given to future projections of the A1B emission scenario produced within the ENSEMBLE project: HadRM3 RCM nested within the HADCM3 GCM (HADLEY) and HIRHAM5 RCM nested within ECHAM5 GCM (ECHAM). The two realizations can be considered as warm (HADLEY) and cold (ECHAM5) according to simulated temperature in the near future and therefore represent the extremes in air temperature change within those analyzed in ENSEMBLES project, allowing us to evaluate the largest range of uncertainty in weather inputs to the impact model. In addition, we also explored the advantages of different irrigation strategies for the target crop to offset climate change impacts. In wake of limited amount of water availability for agriculture purposes, we explored effectiveness of three different irrigation strategies on maize yield over Europe, namely full, deficit and supplemental irrigation. The results of our study indicate that the maize yield under rainfed conditions is expected to decrease over the Southern Europe as well as regions around the Black Sea during the 2030s under both climate model realizations. Water deficit is expected to increase especially in the Mediterranean, whereas slightly less in parts of Central and Western Europe. However, adaptation strategies followed in this study negate the detrimental effect of climate change and result in an increased maize yield. Three irrigation strategies have been simulated differing in timing of water application and in the total volume of water supplied during the growing season. The results show that yields, achieved using deficit and full irrigation strategies, are not significantly different. Hence, at least

  2. Adaptation of land-use demands to the impact of climate change on the hydrological processes of an urbanized watershed.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

    2012-11-12

    The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region's hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region's ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model is used to simulate three hydrological components, namely, runoff, groundwater and streamflow, based on various land-use scenarios under six global climate models. The land-use allocations are simulated by the CLUE-s model for the various development scenarios. The simulation results show that runoff and streamflow are strongly related to the precipitation levels predicted by different global climate models for the wet and dry seasons, but groundwater cycles are more related to land-use. The effects of climate change on groundwater and runoff can be mitigated by modifying current land-use patterns; and slowing the rate of urbanization would also reduce the impact of climate change on hydrological components. Thus, land-use adaptation on a local/regional scale provides an alternative way to reduce the impacts of global climate change on local hydrology.

  3. Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

    PubMed

    Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

    2010-09-01

    This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

  4. Conservation strategies to adapt to projected climate change impacts in Malawi

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    There is potential for climate change to have negative effects on agricultural production via extreme events (Pruski and Nearing, 2002b; Zhang et al., 2012; Walthall 2012), and there is a need to implement conservation practices for climate change adaptation (Delgado et al. 2011; 2013). Recent repo...

  5. A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Gao, Yongli; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Du, Yajuan

    2015-01-01

    The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520–1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ18O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ18O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events. PMID:26270656

  6. A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years.

    PubMed

    Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Gao, Yongli; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Du, Yajuan

    2015-08-13

    The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ(18)O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ(18)O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.

  7. A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Gao, Yongli; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Du, Yajuan

    2015-08-01

    The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ18O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ18O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.

  8. Assessment of impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on maize production in Uganda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kikoyo, Duncan A.; Nobert, Joel

    2016-06-01

    Globally, various climatic studies have estimated a reduction of crop yields due to changes in surface temperature and precipitation especially for the developing countries which is heavily dependent on agriculture and lacks resources to counter the negative effects of climate change. Uganda's economy and the wellbeing of its populace depend on rain-fed agriculture which is susceptible to climate change. This study quantified the impacts of climate change and variability in Uganda and how coping strategies can enhance crop production against climate change and/or variability. The study used statistical methods to establish various climate change and variability indicators across the country, and uses the FAO AquaCrop model to simulate yields under possible future climate scenarios with and without adaptation strategies. Maize, the most widely grown crop was used for the study. Meteorological, soil and crop data were collected for various districts representing the maize growing ecological zones in the country. Based on this study, it was found that temperatures have increased by up to 1 °C across much of Uganda since the 1970s, with rates of warming around 0.3 °C per decade across the country. High altitude, low rainfall regions experience the highest level of warming, with over 0.5 °C/decade recorded in Kasese. Rainfall is variable and does not follow a specific significant increasing or decreasing trend. For both future climate scenarios, Maize yields will reduce in excess of 4.7% for the fast warming-low rainfall climates but increase on average by 3.5% for slow warming-high rainfall regions, by 2050. Improved soil fertility can improve yields by over 50% while mulching and use of surface water management practices improve yields by single digit percentages. The use of fertilizer application needs to go hand in hand with other water management strategies since more yields as a result of the improved soil fertility leads to increased water stress, especially

  9. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  10. Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: ecological buffering mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wichmann, Matthias C.; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Jeltsch, Florian; Grimm, Volker

    2005-07-01

    The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle ( Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted.

  11. The potential role of health impact assessment in tackling the complexity of climate change adaptation for health.

    PubMed

    Brown, Helen L; Proust, Katrina; Spickett, Jeffery; Capon, Anthony

    2011-12-01

    Managing an issue of the magnitude, scope and complexity of climate change is a daunting prospect, yet one which nations around the world must face. Climate change is an issue without boundaries--impacts will cut across administrative and geographical borders and be felt by every sector of society. Responses to climate change will need to employ system approaches that take into account the relationships that cross organisational and sectoral boundaries. Solutions designed in isolation from these interdependencies will be unlikely to succeed, squandering opportunities for long-term effective adaptation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a structural approach to identify, evaluate and manage health impacts of climate change that is inclusive of a wide range of stakeholders. Climate change will affect decision-making across every government level and sector and the health implications of these decisions can also be addressed with HIA. Given the nature of the issue, HIA of climate change will identify a large number of variables that influence the type and extent of health impacts and the management of these impacts. In order to implement the most effective adaptation measures, it is critica that an understanding of the interactions between these variables is developed. The outcome of HIA of climate change can therefore be strengthened by the introduction of system dynamics tools, such as causal loop diagrams, that are designed to examine interactions between variables and the resulting behaviour of complex systems.

  12. Climate change impacts and adaptation in forestry: responses by trees and markets.

    Treesearch

    Ralph Alig; Darius Adams; Linda Joyce; Brent. Sohngen

    2004-01-01

    The forest sector-forestry and forest industries-plays an important role in the global climate change debate. The sector influences the global carbon cycle through the sequestration of atmospheric carbon in forests and is in turn influenced by global climate change through its impacts on the rates of forest growth and climate-induced changes in natural disturbances...

  13. Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

    PubMed

    Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

    2013-01-15

    The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to

  14. Development and climate change: a mainstreaming approach for assessing economic, social, and environmental impacts of adaptation measures.

    PubMed

    Halsnaes, Kirsten; Traerup, Sara

    2009-05-01

    The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

  15. Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara

    2009-05-01

    The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

  16. Adapting to the health impacts of climate change in a sustainable manner.

    PubMed

    Hoy, Damian; Roth, Adam; Lepers, Christelle; Durham, Jo; Bell, Johann; Durand, Alexis; Lal, Padma Narsey; Souares, Yvan

    2014-12-11

    The climate is changing and this poses significant threats to human health. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing Pacific Island countries and territories due to their unique geophysical features, and their social, economic and cultural characteristics. The Pacific region also faces challenges with widely dispersed populations, limited resources and fragmented health systems. Over the past few years, there has been a substantial increase in international aid for health activities aimed at adapting to the threats of climate change. This funding needs to be used strategically to ensure an effective approach to reducing the health risk from climate change. Respecting the principles of development effectiveness will result in more effective and sustainable adaptation, in particular, 1) processes should be owned and driven by local communities, 2) investments should be aligned with existing national priorities and policies, and 3) existing systems must not be ignored, but rather expanded upon and reinforced.

  17. Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

    2014-12-01

    China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national

  18. A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change.

    PubMed

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J

    2013-09-10

    Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change.

  19. A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change.

    PubMed

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J

    2013-01-01

    Background Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. Objectives To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. Design A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. Results A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Conclusion Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change.

  20. A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Bowen, Kathryn J.; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J.

    2013-01-01

    Background Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. Objectives To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. Design A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. Results A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Conclusion Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change. PMID:24028938

  1. Adapting to climate change

    Treesearch

    Constance I. Millar; Christopher W. Swanston; David L. Peterson

    2014-01-01

    Federal agencies have led the development of adaptation principles and tools in forest ecosystems over the past decade. Successful adaptation efforts generally require organizations to: (1) develop science-management partnerships, (2) provide education on climate change science, (3) provide a toolkit of methods and processes for vulnerability assessment and adaptation...

  2. Selecting a change and evaluating its impact on the performance of a complex adaptive health care delivery system.

    PubMed

    Boustani, Malaz A; Munger, Stephanie; Gulati, Rajesh; Vogel, Mickey; Beck, Robin A; Callahan, Christopher M

    2010-05-25

    Complexity science suggests that our current health care delivery system acts as a complex adaptive system (CAS). Such systems represent a dynamic and flexible network of individuals who can coevolve with their ever changing environment. The CAS performance fluctuates and its members' interactions continuously change over time in response to the stress generated by its surrounding environment. This paper will review the challenges of intervening and introducing a planned change into a complex adaptive health care delivery system. We explore the role of the "reflective adaptive process" in developing delivery interventions and suggest different evaluation methodologies to study the impact of such interventions on the performance of the entire system. We finally describe the implementation of a new program, the Aging Brain Care Medical Home as a case study of our proposed evaluation process.

  3. Vulnerability of drained and rewetted organic soils to climate change impacts and associated adaptation options

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renou-Wilson, Florence; Müller, Christoph; Wilson, David

    2016-04-01

    With 20% of the land covered with peat soils, Ireland needs to develop a deeper understanding among stakeholders of the potential vulnerability of peatlands and organic soils to climate change (both gradual and extreme events) in the context of current land use changes. The fate of carbon in organic soils is critical for predicting future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. While keeping carbon stock in organic soils (for example by rewetting drained sites) can be an effective mitigation measures to reduce CO2 emissions, adaptation options are also required to ensure their 'resilience'. Rewetting of drained organic soils has been initiated at several sites across the country with the aim to (i) reduce net GHG emissions at the source and/or (ii) create suitable conditions for carbon sequestration in active peatland habitats. We present here two sites: an industrial cutaway peatland and an extensive grassland over organic soil, where long-term (> 4 years) environmental and GHG flux (chamber) datasets in both drained and rewetted areas have provided information on the impact of annual weather variability on net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Statistical response functions estimated for gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were used to reconstruct annual CO2 balances using site-specific models driven by soil temperature, solar radiation, soil water table levels and leaf area index. The modification of some of the model parameters to fit predicted future climate scenarios for the region allowed potential changes in modelled NEE to be assessed. Both sites were, on average, an annual source of CO2 when drained (138 - 232 g C m-2 yr-1) and a sink when rewetted (ranging from -40 g C m-2 yr-1 in the ungrazed rewetted grassland to a maximum of -260 g C m-2 yr-1 in the rewetted cutaway). At both sites, soil temperatures and water table levels varied significantly between all years. Average NEE at each site displayed a very large

  4. Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    PubMed

    Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae C; Perry, Allison L

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.

  5. The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

    2012-04-01

    This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

  6. Advancing scientific base lines for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in mountain regions in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huggel, C.; Jurt, N. Salzmann, C.; Calanca, P.; Ordonez, A. Diaz, J.; Zappa, T. Jonas M.; Konzelmann, T.; Lagos, P.; Obersteiner, M.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.

    2009-04-01

    Adaptation to climate change impacts is a major challenge for the human society. For countries in development, consistent base lines of expected impacts at the regional scale are required to plan and implement low-cost adaptation measures that effectively address societal needs. However, donors and implementing agencies are often confronted with a lack of scientific data. This poses a serious problem to global adaptation funds, such as the one established under the UNFCCC, which are predominantly directed towards developing countries. This contribution summarizes recent experiences gained from international projects in the Andes, by the Peruvian and Swiss Governments, and the World Bank, on the development of scientific base lines for selected regions in the Peruvian Andes. The focus is on the nexus between water resources, food security and natural disasters. The analysis shows that Peruvian Andes are among the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Negative impacts on water resources are expected from the rapid retreat of glaciers, extended and more frequent drought periods and increasing human needs. Climate change impacts are exacerbated by continued sub-optimal resource management. As a consequence of growing stresses, water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation is increasingly limited. Assessment of the current conditions and reliable projections for the future are hampered by scarce data availability and methodological problems, such as downscaling of global and regional climate scenarios, cross-sector effects, and others. It is critical that related uncertainties, and the propagation thereof, are assessed throughout the impact analysis for an improved management of adaptation measures. Challenges furthermore include communication and understanding among different actors, including the scientific community, political and implementation agencies, and local population. Based on our experiences we will outline a good practice

  7. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.

    PubMed

    McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L

    2016-11-01

    Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity

  8. Financing climate change adaptation.

    PubMed

    Bouwer, Laurens M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2006-03-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.

  9. Toward Collective Impact for Climate Resilience: Maximizing Climate Change Education for Preparedness, Adaptation, and Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; McCaffrey, M.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing the capacity of society to make informed climate decisions based on scientific evidence is imperative. While a wide range of education programs and communication efforts to improve understanding and facilitate responsible effective decision-making have been developed in recent years, these efforts have been largely disconnected. The interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary nature of the problems and potential responses to climate change requires a broad range of expertise and a strategy that overcomes the inherent limitations of isolated programs and efforts. To extend the reach and impact of climate change education and engagement efforts, it is necessary to have a coordination that results in greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network has facilitated a series of discussions at six professional meetings from late 2012 through spring 2014 to begin to develop and define the elements of collective impact on climate change education and engagement. These discussions have focused on getting input from the community on a common agenda and what a backbone support organization could do to help extend their reach and impact and enable a longer-term sustainability. These discussions will continue at future meetings, with the focus shifting to developing a common agenda and shared metrics. In this presentation we will summarize the outcomes of these discussions thus far, especially with respect to what activities a backbone support organization might provide to help increase the collective impact of climate change education effort and invite others to join the development of public-private partnership to improve the nations climate literacy. The cumulative input into this evolving discussion on collective

  10. Climate Change Adaptation: DOD Can Improve Infrastructure Planning and Processes to Better Account for Potential Impacts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-05-01

    in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity . 3GAO, Extreme Weather Events: Limiting Federal Fiscal...operations or test and training activities , increased maintenance costs, and damage to coastal infrastructure. DOD associates rising sea levels and...changes in ocean temperature, circulation, salinity, and acidity with potential climate change impacts such as coral reef losses that may negatively

  11. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities

    PubMed Central

    McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate

  12. Research, Adaptation, & Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morris, Lee A., Ed.; And Others

    Research adaptation is an endeavor that implies solid collaboration among school practitioners and university and college researchers. This volume addresses the broad issues of research as an educational endeavor, adaptation as a necessary function associated with applying research findings to school situations, and change as an inevitable…

  13. Research, Adaptation, & Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morris, Lee A., Ed.; And Others

    Research adaptation is an endeavor that implies solid collaboration among school practitioners and university and college researchers. This volume addresses the broad issues of research as an educational endeavor, adaptation as a necessary function associated with applying research findings to school situations, and change as an inevitable…

  14. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  15. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  16. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    PubMed

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  17. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Howden, S. Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists. PMID:18077402

  18. Adapting to Climate Change: Research Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palutikof, Jean; Romero-Lankao, Patricia

    2009-06-01

    Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Community Coordination; Boulder, Colorado, 8-9 January 2009; In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) reaffirmed that anthropogenic climate change is under way, that future climate change is unavoidable, and that observed impacts can be attributed, at least in part, to anthropogenic warming. In addition, a growing number of climate change adaptation strategies are being developed around the world, indicating that policy makers are waking up to the reality of climate change. While mitigation efforts remain vital for avoiding the most dangerous impacts, adapting to unavoidable climate change is also essential. The climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research community is now being called upon to demonstrate the likely impacts and vulnerabilities associated with future climate changes and to provide scientific advice on the most effective adaptation strategies.

  19. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

    PubMed

    Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, David W; Kendall, Anthony D; Grace, Peter R; Robertson, G Philip

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability.

  20. Evaluating climate change impacts and adaptation options for agriculture in West Africa: a multi-model comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Guan, K.; Roudier, P.; Piani, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is likely to stress food production in many parts of the developing world over the next few decades. In areas such as West Africa, where poor communities are highly dependent on the direct use of local natural resources, the effects of climate change on food security could be particularly devastating. Given these concerns, there is great interest in identifying and investing in technologies or practices that could help farmers adapt to climate variability and change. Recent studies found a robust agreement across the various climate models of the IPCC Coupled Models Inter-comparison Program ensemble on the seasonal distribution of Sahel rainfall changes (with a drying of the early season and positive rainfall anomaly at the end) in contrast with a large uncertainty for summertime rainfall totals. These changes will therefore certainly impact agriculture strategy (selection of new cultivars, later sowing) and output. This study estimates such impacts by using a series of climate scenarios as input for two crop models for multiple locations within West Africa. Simulations are run for the two major crops in the region - sorghum and millets. Building on the above simulations, we then simulate different scenarios of adaptation that could be used to cope with climate changes.

  1. Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

    PubMed Central

    Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, David W.; Kendall, Anthony D.; Grace, Peter R.; Robertson, G. Philip

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability. PMID:26043188

  2. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  3. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

    PubMed

    Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

  4. Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

  5. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlet, A. F.

    2011-05-01

    provide a reasonably solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historical records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration have (with some exceptions) contributed to widespread institutional "gridlock" in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting some of these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making progress in addressing the fundamental

  6. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlet, A. F.

    2010-07-01

    and institutional arrangements provide a solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historic records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration has (with some exceptions) led to institutional "gridlock" in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making progress in addressing the fundamental

  7. Consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation in EIA practice — Perspectives of actors in Austria and Germany

    SciTech Connect

    Jiricka, Alexandra; Formayer, Herbert; Schmidt, Anna; Völler, Sonja; Leitner, Markus; Fischer, Thomas B.; Wachter, Thomas F.

    2016-02-15

    Current political discussions and developments indicate the importance and urgency of incorporating climate change considerations into EIA processes. The recent revision of the EU Directive 2014/52/EU on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requires changes in the EIA practice of the EU member states. This paper investigates the extent to which the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) can contribute to an early consideration of climate change consequences in planning processes. In particular the roles of different actors in order to incorporate climate change impacts and adaptation into project planning subject to EIA at the appropriate levels are a core topic. Semi-structured expert interviews were carried out with representatives of the main infrastructure companies and institutions responsible in these sectors in Austria, which have to carry out EIA regularly. In a second step expert interviews were conducted with EIA assessors and EIA authorities in Austria and Germany, in order to examine the extent to which climate-based changes are already considered in EIA processes. This paper aims to discuss the different perspectives in the current EIA practice with regard to integrating climate change impacts as well as barriers and solutions identified by the groups of actors involved, namely project developers, environmental competent authorities and consultants (EIA assessors/practitioners). The interviews show that different groups of actors consider the topic to different degrees. Downscaling of climate change scenarios is in this context both, a critical issue with regards to availability of data and costs. Furthermore, assistance for the interpretation of relevant impacts, to be deducted from climate change scenarios, on the specific environmental issues in the area is needed. The main barriers identified by the EIA experts therefore include a lack of data as well as general uncertainty as to how far climate change should be considered in the process without

  8. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

    2015-07-01

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  9. Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashemi, H.; Uvo, C. B.; Berndtsson, R.

    2015-10-01

    The effect of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010-2030 and 2030-2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002-2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall-runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic heads. As a result of the rainfall-runoff modeling, under the B1 scenario the number of floods is projected to slightly increase in the area. This in turn calls for proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharge amount in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.

  10. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Water Resources and Agricultural Diversity of the Upper Rio Grande Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouhi Rad, M.; Hurd, B. H.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change can alter the balance of the water resources systems. It can both change the amount and the timing of the streamflow available in a basin and the amount of water consumed at the end point due to higher temperatures. These changes in the supply and demand sides can result in a different allocation of water and different price for water in basin scale based on economic principles. In a previous study Hurd and Coonrod (2012) modeled the impacts of climate change on the water related economic activities of the Rio Grande. In their study they assumed an aggregated benefit function for the agricultural sector. In another study on the Rio Grande Brinegar and Ward (2009) modeled the agricultural diversity of the Rio Grande within the framework of a hydro-economic model. This study builds upon and extends the previous studies by developing a model that can more carefully assess the role of adaptation in agriculture. Specially, the current study adds quadratic production functions for each crop. These production functions add a major benefit to the modeling of the hydro-economic system, namely that of adding diversity and expanded resolution to the agricultural sector. Using this production function the model includes both land and water as independent variables in the agricultural sector and, therefore this extension of the model has more flexibility to represent adaptive responses to climatic changes by including the capacity to change the crop mix and acreages as well as the water applied i.e. the capacity to deficit irrigate. The results of this study show that the agricultural sector can lose nearly a third of its water and more than 30% of its net economic benefits as a result of possible climate changes. It also shows as the climate become drier and population grows then economic forces will encourage agriculture to move towards more beneficial crops and reduce total acreage and in some cases applied water.

  11. Sustainability Impact Assessment of two forest-based bioenergy production systems related to mitigation and adaption to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gartzia-Bengoetxea, Nahia; Arias-González, Ander; Tuomasjukka, Diana

    2016-04-01

    New forest management strategies are necessary to resist and adapt to Climate Change (CC) and to maintain ecosystem functions such as forest productivity, water storage and biomass production. The increased use of forest-based biomass for energy generation as well as the application of combustion or pyrolysis co-products such as ash or biochar back into forest soils is being suggested as a CC mitigation and adaptation strategy while trying to fulfil the targets of both: (i) Europe 2020 growth strategy in relation to CC and energy sustainability and (ii) EU Action Plan for the Circular Economy. The energy stored in harvested biomass can be released through combustion and used for energy generation to enable national energy security (reduced oil dependence) and the substitution of fossil fuel by renewable biomass can decrease the emission of greenhouse gases.In the end, the wood-ash produced in the process can return to the forest soil to replace the nutrients exported by harvesting. Another way to use biomass in this green circular framework is to pyrolyse it. Pyrolysis of the biomass produce a carbon-rich product (biochar) that can increase carbon sequestration in the soils and liquid and gas co-products of biomass pyrolysis can be used for energy generation or other fuel use thereby offsetting fossil fuel consumption and so avoiding greenhouse gas emissions. Both biomass based energy systems differ in the amount of energy produced, in the co-product (biochar or wood ash) returned to the field, and in societal impacts they have. The Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) was used for modelling both energy production systems. ToSIA integrates several different methods, and allows a quantification and objective comparison of economic, environmental and social impacts in a sustainability impact assessment for different decision alternatives/scenarios. We will interpret the results in order to support the bioenergy planning in temperate forests under the

  12. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  13. Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tam, A.; Jain, M.

    2016-12-01

    This research includes two projects pertaining to agricultural systems' adaption to climate change. The first research project focuses on the wheat yielding regions of India. Wheat is a major staple crop and many rural households and smallholder farmers rely on crop yields for survival. We examine the impacts of weather variability and groundwater depletion on agricultural systems, using geospatial analysis and satellite-based analysis and household-based and census data sets. We use these methods to estimate the crop yields and identify what factors are associated with low versus high yielding regions. This can help identify strategies that should be further promoted to increase crop yields. The second research project is a literature review. We conduct a meta-analysis and synthetic review on literature about agricultural adaptation to climate change. We sort through numerous articles to identify and examine articles that associate socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors to farmers' adaption to climate change. Our preliminary results show that researchers tend to associate few factors to a farmers' vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and most of the research conducted is concentrated in North America, whereas tropical regions that are highly vulnerable to weather variability are underrepresented by literature. There are no conclusive results in both research projects as of so far.

  14. Metrics of Climate Change Impact and Adaptation of Physiologically-diverse Crops

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change is predicted to be most pronounced at high latitudes and is expected to cause a net loss of agro-ecosystem carbon (C) and a positive feedback to global warming. Nevertheless, demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy continues to be a major driver of global climate change, especially...

  15. Modeling of Climate Change Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation - Closed Announcement FY 2016

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Office of Atmospheric Programs is soliciting proposals to advance the field of climate economic modeling to assist decision makers and the public in effectively responding to the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change.

  16. An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

    2013-12-01

    Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as

  17. Impact of experimental thermal amplitude on ectotherm performance: Adaptation to climate change variability?

    PubMed

    Folguera, Guillermo; Bastías, Daniel A; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2009-11-01

    Global climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity; one of the most important effects is increase in the mean earth surface temperature. However, another but poorly studied main effect of global change appears to be an increase in temperature variability. Most of the current analyses of global change have focused on mean values, paying less attention to the role of the fluctuations of environmental variables. We tested the effects of daily thermal amplitude with constant mean (24-24 degrees C, 27-21 degrees C and 32-16 degrees C) on different performance traits (rollover speed, body mass balance and survival) in populations of woodlouse (Porcellio laevis) from two altitudes. We observed that maximum performance showed a significant effect of population in the first but not in the fifth week, and only the population effect was significant for optimum temperature. Interestingly, populations under higher amplitude in environmental temperature exhibited higher resistance to a fluctuating climatic regime. We suggest that our results indicate that thermal variability may produce important effects on biodiversity. Therefore, in order to develop more realistic scenarios of global climate change effects on biodiversity, the effects of thermal variability as well as mean need to be examined simultaneously.

  18. Climate change and thermal bioclimate in cities: impacts and options for adaptation in Freiburg, Germany.

    PubMed

    Matzarakis, Andreas; Endler, Christina

    2010-07-01

    The concept of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of thermal bioclimatic conditions in Freiburg, Germany, to show if days with extreme bioclimatic conditions will change and how extreme thermal conditions can be modified by changes in mean radiant temperature and wind speed. The results show that there will be an increase of days with heat stress (PET > 35 degrees C) in the order of 5% (from 9.2% for 1961-1990) and a decrease of days with cold stress (PET < 0 degrees C) from 16.4% to 3.8% per year. The conditions can be modified by measures modifying radiation and wind speed in the order of more than 10% of days per year by reducing global radiation in complex structures or urban areas.

  19. Increased Fitness of Rice Plants to Abiotic Stress Via Habitat Adapted Symbiosis: A Strategy for Mitigating Impacts of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Redman, Regina S.; Kim, Yong Ok; Woodward, Claire J. D. A.; Greer, Chris; Espino, Luis; Doty, Sharon L.; Rodriguez, Rusty J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and catastrophic events have contributed to rice shortages in several regions due to decreased water availability and soil salinization. Although not adapted to salt or drought stress, two commercial rice varieties achieved tolerance to these stresses by colonizing them with Class 2 fungal endophytes isolated from plants growing across moisture and salinity gradients. Plant growth and development, water usage, ROS sensitivity and osmolytes were measured with and without stress under controlled conditions. The endophytes conferred salt, drought and cold tolerance to growth chamber and greenhouse grown plants. Endophytes reduced water consumption by 20–30% and increased growth rate, reproductive yield, and biomass of greenhouse grown plants. In the absence of stress, there was no apparent cost of the endophytes to plants, however, endophyte colonization decreased from 100% at planting to 65% compared to greenhouse plants grown under continual stress (maintained 100% colonization). These findings indicate that rice plants can exhibit enhanced stress tolerance via symbiosis with Class 2 endophytes, and suggest that symbiotic technology may be useful in mitigating impacts of climate change on other crops and expanding agricultural production onto marginal lands. PMID:21750695

  20. Increased fitness of rice plants to abiotic stress via habitat adapted symbiosis: A strategy for mitigating impacts of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Redman, R.S.; Kim, Y.-O.; Woodward, C.J.D.A.; Greer, C.; Espino, L.; Doty, S.L.; Rodriguez, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and catastrophic events have contributed to rice shortages in several regions due to decreased water availability and soil salinization. Although not adapted to salt or drought stress, two commercial rice varieties achieved tolerance to these stresses by colonizing them with Class 2 fungal endophytes isolated from plants growing across moisture and salinity gradients. Plant growth and development, water usage, ROS sensitivity and osmolytes were measured with and without stress under controlled conditions. The endophytes conferred salt, drought and cold tolerance to growth chamber and greenhouse grown plants. Endophytes reduced water consumption by 20–30% and increased growth rate, reproductive yield, and biomass of greenhouse grown plants. In the absence of stress, there was no apparent cost of the endophytes to plants, however, endophyte colonization decreased from 100% at planting to 65% compared to greenhouse plants grown under continual stress (maintained 100% colonization). These findings indicate that rice plants can exhibit enhanced stress tolerance via symbiosis with Class 2 endophytes, and suggest that symbiotic technology may be useful in mitigating impacts of climate change on other crops and expanding agricultural production onto marginal lands.

  1. Increased fitness of rice plants to abiotic stress via habitat adapted symbiosis: a strategy for mitigating impacts of climate change.

    PubMed

    Redman, Regina S; Kim, Yong Ok; Woodward, Claire J D A; Greer, Chris; Espino, Luis; Doty, Sharon L; Rodriguez, Rusty J

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and catastrophic events have contributed to rice shortages in several regions due to decreased water availability and soil salinization. Although not adapted to salt or drought stress, two commercial rice varieties achieved tolerance to these stresses by colonizing them with Class 2 fungal endophytes isolated from plants growing across moisture and salinity gradients.Plant growth and development, water usage, ROS sensitivity and osmolytes were measured with and without stress under controlled conditions.The endophytes conferred salt, drought and cold tolerance to growth chamber and greenhouse grown plants. Endophytes reduced water consumption by 20-30% and increased growth rate, reproductive yield, and biomass of greenhouse grown plants. In the absence of stress, there was no apparent cost of the endophytes to plants, however, endophyte colonization decreased from 100% at planting to 65% compared to greenhouse plants grown under continual stress (maintained 100% colonization).These findings indicate that rice plants can exhibit enhanced stress tolerance via symbiosis with Class 2 endophytes, and suggest that symbiotic technology may be useful in mitigating impacts of climate change on other crops and expanding agricultural production onto marginal lands.

  2. Impacts of Climate Changes in Ukraine on Hydrological Regime and Water Resources: Assessment and Measures of Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manukalo, V.

    2009-12-01

    year; about 50% of annual flow will pass in winter months. An increase of risks of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the steppe zone and in the southern part of forest - steppe zone is projected. The region most prone to a rise in river flood frequency is the Ukrainian Carpathians. Generally, a negative impact of climate changes on hydrological regime is expected to outweigh a benefit for the most of regions. The most likely affected sectors by negative impact are: agriculture, industry, drinking water supply, human settlements, river ecosystems. In order to eliminate a possible negative effect on water resources, the adaptation strategies addressed on the national level will have to incorporate a number of legislative, organizational and technical measures aimed at protecting the water resources. The development of integrated water resources management is the essential terms in order to achieve adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems.

  3. Projected 21st Century Impacts of Climate Change on the Performance of the Los Angeles Aqueduct and Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Adverse Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mills, B.; Sayenko, K.; Roy, S. B.; Lew, C.

    2011-12-01

    One of the largest sources of drinking water to the City of Los Angeles (the City) comes from snow melt from the Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountains that drain into Owens Valley and Mono Basin. Much of this water is then transported to the City via the Los Angeles Aqueduct (LAA) originally built in 1913. During the 1980s and earlier, up to 500,000 acre-feet (af) of water was conveyed annually, but more recently less water has been transported due to increasing usage in Owens Valley, and due to a series of dry years.The City is concerned about potential impacts of climate change on this water supply, and commissioned the authors to perform a study to evaluate these potential impacts on both the infrastructure of the LAA and water supply to the City. This presentation focuses on the water supply issue, which has the potential to impact millions of customers. The study results presented here are part of a larger study where 16 global climate models were downscaled and applied to the Owens Valley and Mono Basin watersheds. This presentation begins by assuming base-of-mountain runoff is known from the 16 GCMs, and does not focus on the GCMs or downscaling.The results of the study described in this presentation are those of the authors and not of the LADWP. One of the most consequential findings of the study is the projected decrease in runoff from the watershed over the 21st century. While wet years are still dispersed between dry years, over the 21st century the loss in runoff is equivalent to approximately five years of historical average runoff. In addition to climate change impacts, water usage in the Owens valley is projected to increase over the 21st century and that increasing usage is projected to be comparable to climate change impacts. Eight adaptation options were identified to mitigate potential impacts. These included increasing storage volume of reservoirs in Owens Valley, changing operational rules for releasing water, construction of surface storage or

  4. Empirical Estimation of Climate Impacts Under Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2016-12-01

    Estimating the impacts of climate change requires a careful account of both the present levels of adaptation observed in different regions and the adaptive capacity those regions might show under climate change. To date, little empirical evidence on either of these components. We present a general approach for empirically estimating the impacts of climate change under both forms of adaptation, applied to the United States. We draw upon relationships between daily temperatures and impacts on mortality, agriculture, and crime, from the econometric climate impacts literature. These are estimated using year-to-year temperature variation within each location. The degree to which regions are vulnerable to high temperatures varies across the US, with warmer regions generally showing less vulnerability. As climate changes, cooler regions will adopt behaviors from warmer regions, such as greater use of air conditioning, and their impact relationships will change accordingly. The rate at which regions have adapted is estimated from changes in these relationships over recent decades. We use these results to model future changes in each US county. as they are exposed to warmer temperatures and adopt characteristics of currently warmer areas. We do this across a full range of climate and statistical uncertainty. The median degree to which adaptation alleviates impacts varies by sector, with 10% lower rates of temperature-induced crime, 15% lower yield losses to maize, to 80% lower rates of heat-related mortality. However, the uncertainty in adaptive capacity remains greater than these changes. Uncertainty in regional response relationships and the rate of adaptation dominate the uncertainty in our total result. We perform two thought experiments to explore the extreme potential for adaptation in light of this uncertainty. We replace the regional relationships with a uniform approach to complete temperature insensitivity, using the normal estimated rate of adaptation. We also

  5. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2009-05-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general development policies.

  6. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  7. CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

    2015-11-01

    Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  8. Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Fernández, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

  9. An extended modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashemi, H.; Uvo, C. B.; Berndtsson, R.

    2014-10-01

    The impact of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010-2030 and 2030-2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. The modified version of the HBV model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002-2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall-runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic head. The results of the rainfall-runoff modeling showed that under the B1 scenario the number of floods might increase in the area. This in turn calls for a proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharged water in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.

  10. Predicting the impacts of climate change on animal distributions: the importance of local adaptation and species' traits

    SciTech Connect

    HELLMANN, J. J.; LOBO, N. F.

    2011-12-20

    The geographic range limits of many species are strongly affected by climate and are expected to change under global warming. For species that are able to track changing climate over broad geographic areas, we expect to see shifts in species distributions toward the poles and away from the equator. A number of ecological and evolutionary factors, however, could restrict this shifting or redistribution under climate change. These factors include restricted habitat availability, restricted capacity for or barriers to movement, or reduced abundance of colonists due the perturbation effect of climate change. This research project examined the last of these constraints - that climate change could perturb local conditions to which populations are adapted, reducing the likelihood that a species will shift its distribution by diminishing the number of potential colonists. In the most extreme cases, species ranges could collapse over a broad geographic area with no poleward migration and an increased risk of species extinction. Changes in individual species ranges are the processes that drive larger phenomena such as changes in land cover, ecosystem type, and even changes in carbon cycling. For example, consider the poleward range shift and population outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle that has decimated millions of acres of Douglas fir trees in the western US and Canada. Standing dead trees cause forest fires and release vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. The beetle likely shifted its range because it is not locally adapted across its range, and it appears to be limited by winter low temperatures that have steadily increased in the last decades. To understand range and abundance changes like the pine beetle, we must reveal the extent of adaptive variation across species ranges - and the physiological basis of that adaptation - to know if other species will change as readily as the pine beetle. Ecologists tend to assume that range shifts are the dominant

  11. Narrative, Adaptation, and Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bateson, Mary Catherine

    2007-01-01

    This paper explores how individuals and communities orient themselves to the future by the way they story the past. There is a persistent tendency to think of such narratives as factual and therefore stable. The mutability of such narratives is actually a key adaptive characteristic, ranging from complete repression of individual traumas to public…

  12. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    PubMed Central

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    Background The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival. PMID:27388896

  13. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan.

    PubMed

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Data collected during the 2007-2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  14. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan.

    PubMed

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    Background The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods Data collected during the 2007-2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  15. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin — Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy

    PubMed Central

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S.

    2015-01-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.

    PubMed

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S

    2015-06-15

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders.

  17. Climate Change Adaptation Training

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    A list of on-line training modules to help local government officials and those interested in water management issues better understand how the changing climate affects the services and resources they care about

  18. Adapting to change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anscombe, Nadya

    2009-11-01

    From humble beginnings, the Belgian company Xenics has grown to become one of the world's leading suppliers of short-wave infrared cameras outside the US. Nadya Anscombe finds out how the company has survived the economic crisis by changing its business strategy and continually developing its products.

  19. Urban Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Europe: A Case Study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves. For example, the summer 2003 European heat wave caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. As around 75% of Europe's population resides in urban areas, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of seasonal to decadal-scale climate variability on urban areas and their populations. This study aims at downscaling the spatially coarse resolution CMIP5 climate predictions to the local urban scale and investigating the relation between heat waves and the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect). The resulting heat stress effect is not only driven by climatic variables but also impacted by urban morphology. Moreover, the exposure varies significantly with the geographical location. All this information is coupled with relevant socio-economic datasets such as population density, age structure, etc. focussing on human health. The analyses are conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (BE), Berlin (DE) and Almada (PT) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. The end-user needs have been consolidated in a climate services plan including the production of heat risk exposure maps and the analysis of various scenarios considering e.g. the uncertainty of the global climate predictions, urban expansion over time and the impact of mitigation measures such as green roofs. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for the design and management of climate resilient cities.

  20. Evaluating the contribution of Sustainable Land Management to climate change adaptation and mitigation, and its impacts on Mediterranean ecosystem services.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vente, Joris; Zagaria, Cecilia; Pérez-Cutillas, Pedro; Almagro, Maria; Martínez-Mena, Maria; Baartman, Jantiene; Boix-Fayos, Carolina

    2015-04-01

    Changing climate and land management have strong implications for soil and water resources and for many essential ecosystem services (ES), such as provision of drinking and irrigation water, soil erosion control, and carbon sequestration. Large impacts of climate change are expected in the Mediterranean, characterized by a high dependence on scarce soil and water resources. On the other hand, well designed Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies can reduce the risks associated with climate change, but their design requires knowledge of their multiple effects on ecosystem services under present and future climate scenarios and of possible tradeoffs. Moreover, strategies are only viable if suited to local environmental, socio-economic and cultural conditions, so stakeholder engagement is crucial during their selection, evaluation and implementation. We present preliminary results of a catchment wide assessment of the expected impacts of climate change on water availability in the Segura basin (18800 km2) southeastern Spain. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of past land use changes and the benefits of catchment wide implementation of SLM practices to protect soil and water resources, prevent sedimentation of reservoirs and increase carbon sequestration in soil and vegetation. We used the InVEST modeling framework to simulate the water availability and sediment export under different climate, land use and land management scenarios, and quantified carbon stocks in soil and vegetation. Realistic scenarios of implementation of SLM practices were prepared based on an extensive process of stakeholder engagement and using latest climate change predictions from Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios. Results indicate a strong decrease in water availability in the Segura catchment under expected climate change, with average reductions of upto 60% and large spatial variability. Land use changes (1990 - 2006) resulted in a slight increase in water

  1. Climate Change Adaptation in the Urban Environment

    SciTech Connect

    Wilbanks, Thomas J

    2011-01-01

    This overview chapter considers five questions that cut across the four case studies in the section to follow: (1) why are urban environments of particular interest; (2) what does an 'urban environment' mean as a focus for adaptation actions, (3) what do we know about climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials in urban areas; (4) what can we expect in the future with adaptation in urban areas; and (5) what is happening with climate change adaptation in urban areas? After decades of inattention, adaptation to risks and impacts of climate change is now receiving long overdue attention, and it is only natural that a considerable share of this attention is focused on the places where most people live. This section considers climate change adaptation in the urban environment, defined as settings where human populations cluster - generally implying relatively large clusters, but not excluding smaller settlements that operate as coherent geopolitical and economic entities. Consistent with the topic of the book, the emphasis of this overview will be on urban environments in developed countries, but it will also draw on knowledge being developed from urban experiences across the globe.

  2. Climate change: Cropping system changes and adaptations

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change impacts the life of every person; however, there is little comprehensive understanding of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on agriculture. Since our food, feed, fiber, and fruit is derived from agricultural systems, understanding the effects of changing temperature, p...

  3. Projected impacts of climate change on hydrology, water resource use and adaptation needs for the Chu and Talas cross-border rivers basin, Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamil Iliasov, Shamil; Dolgikh, Svetlana; Lipponen, Annukka; Novikov, Viktor

    2014-05-01

    The observed long-term trends, variability and projections of future climate and hydrology of the Chu and Talas transboundary rivers basin were analysed using a common approach for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan parts of the basin. Historical, current and forecasted demands and main uses of water in the basin were elaborated by the joint effort of both countries. Such cooperative approach combining scientific data, water practitioners' outlook with decision making needs allowed the first time to produce a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in the Chu-Talas transboundary rivers basin, identify future needs and develop the initial set of adaptation measures and recommendations. This work was carried out under the project "Promoting Cooperation to Adapt to Climate Change in the Chu and Talas Transboundary Basin", supported by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Climate change projections, including air temperatures and rainfall in the 21st century were determined with a spatial resolution 0.5 degrees based on the integration of 15 climate change model outputs (derived from IPCC's 4th Assessment Report, and partially 5th Assessment Report) combined with locally-designed hydrology and glacier models. A significant increase in surface air temperatures by 3-6°C may be expected in the basin area, especially in summer and autumn. This change is likely to be accompanied by rainfall increase during the cold season and a decrease in the warm half of the year. As a result, a deterioration of moisture conditions during the summer-autumn period is possible. Furthermore, milder winters and hotter summers can be expected. Mountains will likely receive more liquid precipitation, than snow, while the area and volume of glaciers may significantly reduce. Projected changes in climate and glaciers have implications for river hydrology and different sectors of the economy dependent

  4. The Economic Impact of Adaptive Responses to Future Scenarios of Socio-Economic and Ecological Change in the Tonle Sap Ecosystem, Cambodia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teh, L.; Bond, N.; KC, K. B.; Fraser, E. D. G.; Seng, R.; Sumaila, R.

    2016-12-01

    The livelihoods of people dependent on the Tonle Sap floodplain ecosystem in Cambodia are expected to be affected by future socio-economic, policy, ecological, and climate change. To investigate the economic impact of these changes on fishing dependent communities, we compare the net income from individuals' current livelihoods to that derived from reallocating their livelihood activities under 4 different scenarios depicting future change. Under current conditions, we find that the group of individuals who do not participate in fishing had the lowest net income. In contrast, individuals who participated in fishing only had comparatively higher average net income than those with multiple livelihoods, suggesting that there may be current gains from livelihood specialisation. When presented with scenarios of future ecological and socio-economic change, the majority of respondents chose to retain their current livelihood strategy under all future scenarios. Of those who did change their livelihood allocation, less than 10% actually experienced a gain in economic benefits. Overall, a loss in net income was expected under all future scenarios, with those engaged in single livelihoods being the most vulnerable because they were likely to experience the largest losses (7 - 29% loss vs. 1 - 17% for multi-livelihoods) across all 4 scenarios while having the least capacity to adapt. Respondents' choices generated the best economic outcome under the scenario depicting the status quo, indicating that they were capable of coping with current conditions, but were unlikely to make appropriate decisions when faced with future scenarios that they were unfamiliar with. By quantifying the consequences of low adaptive capacity in terms of income loss, this study provides an economic argument for addressing the social and economic factors that currently inhibit the capacity of Tonle Sap inhabitants to adapt to future change. It also emphasises the need for sustainable management of

  5. Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

    PubMed

    Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

    2016-11-25

    This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

  6. Assessment of the impacts of climate change and brackish irrigation water on rice productivity and evaluation of adaptation measures in Ca Mau province, Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deb, Proloy; Tran, Duong Anh; Udmale, Parmeshwar D.

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the temporal impacts of climate change on rice yield for summer-autumn (SA) and autumn-winter (AW) cropping pattern along with implication of brackish irrigation water for the SA season. Furthermore, evaluation of different agro-adaptations to overcome negative impacts of climate change was also done for Ca Mau province of Vietnam. Climatic variables were derived from six general circulation models which were further bias corrected at Ca Mau city station for three future time periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s). Calibrated AquaCrop 4.0 was used to project the future rice yield under climate change and different salinity levels in irrigation water. Simulation shows a decline in rice yield ranging from 1.60 to 23.69 % and 8.06 to 20.15 % by 2085s relative to baseline climate for A2 and B2 scenarios respectively in the case of the SA cropping season. However, an increase in rice yield ranging from 3.29 to 12.35 % and 6.64 to 17.23 % is observed for the corresponding time period and scenarios. Further simulations for the SA cropping season under climate change and increasing salinity in irrigation water suggest an insignificant increase in yield relative to the yield obtained without irrigation. Moreover, proper management practices, namely forward and early shifts in transplanting dates along with increasing fertilizer application rates, are observed to be beneficial to enhance the rice yield under climate change.

  7. Evolutionary Adaptations to Dietary Changes

    PubMed Central

    Luca, F.; Perry, G.H.; Di Rienzo, A.

    2014-01-01

    Through cultural innovation and changes in habitat and ecology, there have been a number of major dietary shifts in human evolution, including meat eating, cooking, and those associated with plant and animal domestication. The identification of signatures of adaptations to such dietary changes in the genome of extant primates (including humans) may shed light not only on the evolutionary history of our species, but also on the mechanisms that underlie common metabolic diseases in modern human populations. In this review, we provide a brief overview of the major dietary shifts that occurred during hominin evolution, and we discuss the methods and approaches used to identify signals of natural selection in patterns of sequence variation. We then review the results of studies aimed at detecting the genetic loci that played a major role in dietary adaptations and conclude by outlining the potential of future studies in this area. PMID:20420525

  8. Evolutionary adaptations to dietary changes.

    PubMed

    Luca, F; Perry, G H; Di Rienzo, A

    2010-08-21

    Through cultural innovation and changes in habitat and ecology, there have been a number of major dietary shifts in human evolution, including meat eating, cooking, and those associated with plant and animal domestication. The identification of signatures of adaptations to such dietary changes in the genome of extant primates (including humans) may shed light not only on the evolutionary history of our species, but also on the mechanisms that underlie common metabolic diseases in modern human populations. In this review, we provide a brief overview of the major dietary shifts that occurred during hominin evolution, and we discuss the methods and approaches used to identify signals of natural selection in patterns of sequence variation. We then review the results of studies aimed at detecting the genetic loci that played a major role in dietary adaptations and conclude by outlining the potential of future studies in this area.

  9. Modelling climate change impacts on and adaptation strategies for agriculture in Sardinia and Tunisia using AquaCrop and value-at-risk.

    PubMed

    Bird, David Neil; Benabdallah, Sihem; Gouda, Nadine; Hummel, Franz; Koeberl, Judith; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Meyer, Swen; Prettenthaler, Franz; Soddu, Antonino; Woess-Gallasch, Susanne

    2016-02-01

    In Europe, there is concern that climate change will cause significant impacts around the Mediterranean. The goals of this study are to quantify the economic risk to crop production, to demonstrate the variability of yield by soil texture and climate model and to investigate possible adaptation strategies. In the Rio Mannu di San Sperate watershed, located in Sardinia (Italy) we investigate production of wheat, a rainfed crop. In the Chiba watershed located in Cap Bon (Tunisia), we analyze irrigated tomato production. We find, using the FAO model AquaCrop that crop production will decrease significantly in a future climate (2040-2070) as compared to the present without adaptation measures. Using "value-at-risk", we show that production should be viewed in a statistical manner. Wheat yields in Sardinia are modelled to decrease by 64% on clay loams, and to increase by 8% and 26% respectively on sandy loams and sandy clay loams. Assuming constant irrigation, tomatoes sown in August in Cap Bon are modelled to have a 45% chance of crop failure on loamy sands; a 39% decrease in yields on sandy clay loams; and a 12% increase in yields on sandy loams. For tomatoes sown in March; sandy clay loams will fail 81% of the time; on loamy sands the crop yields will be 63% less while on sandy loams, the yield will increase by 12%. However, if one assume 10% less water available for irrigation then tomatoes sown in March are not viable. Some adaptation strategies will be able to counteract the modelled crop losses. Increasing the amount of irrigation one strategy however this may not be sustainable. Changes in agricultural management such as changing the planting date of wheat to coincide with changing rainfall patterns in Sardinia or mulching of tomatoes in Tunisia can be effective at reducing crop losses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    PubMed

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  11. Changing social contracts in climate-change adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adger, W. Neil; Quinn, Tara; Lorenzoni, Irene; Murphy, Conor; Sweeney, John

    2013-04-01

    Risks from extreme weather events are mediated through state, civil society and individual action. We propose evolving social contracts as a primary mechanism by which adaptation to climate change proceeds. We use a natural experiment of policy and social contexts of the UK and Ireland affected by the same meteorological event and resultant flooding in November 2009. We analyse data from policy documents and from household surveys of 356 residents in western Ireland and northwest England. We find significant differences between perceptions of individual responsibility for protection across the jurisdictions and between perceptions of future risk from populations directly affected by flooding events. These explain differences in stated willingness to take individual adaptive actions when state support retrenches. We therefore show that expectations for state protection are critical in mediating impacts and promoting longer-term adaptation. We argue that making social contracts explicit may smooth pathways to effective and legitimate adaptation.

  12. [Review on farmer's climate change perception and adaptation].

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xue-Yan

    2014-08-01

    As the most serious challenge that the humankind is facing, climate change has been strengthened vulnerability in many countries and regions, and how to scientifically adapt to climate change has become the global issue of common concern to the international community today. The impact of climate change on farming people depending on the nature resource is especially remarkable, and understanding farmers' adaptation mechanism and process is very important to effectively make the adaptation policy. As the basis of understanding the human response action, public perception has provided a new perspective to verify the farmers' adaptation mechanism and process about climate change. Based on the recent theoretical and empirical developments of farmers' perception and adaptation, the impact of climate change on the farmers' livelihood was analyzed, and the main adaptation obstacles which the farmers faced in response to climate change were summarized systematically. Then, we analyzed the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation, illuminated the key cognitive elements in the process of the farmers' climate change adaptation and introduced the framework to analyze the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation. At last, this review put forward the key questions which should be considered in study on the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation.

  13. Impacts of Climate Change and of Anthropisation on Water Resources: from the Risk Assessment to Adaptation, the Case of the Seine Basin (including Paris, France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habets, F.; Viennot, P.; Thierion, C.; Vergnes, J. P.; Ait Kaci, A.; Caballero, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Seine river, located in the temperate climate of northern France and flowing over a large sedimentary basins that hosts multilayer aquifers, is characterized by small temporal variations of its discharge. However, the presence of a megacity (Paris) and a wide area of intensive agriculture combined with climate change puts pressure on the water resources both in terms of quality and quantity. Previous research projects have estimated the impact of climate change on the water resource of the Seine basin, with the uncertainties associated to climate projections, hydrological models or downscaling methods. The water resource was projected to decrease by -14 % ± 10 % in 2050 and -28 +/-16% in 2100. This led to new studies that focus on the combined impact of climate change and adaptations. The tested adaptations are: a reduction of the groundwater abstractions, evolution of land use, development of small dams to « harvest water » or artificial recharge of aquifers. The communication of the results of these projects to stakeholders have led to the development on new indicators that better express the risk on the water resource management, especially for the groundwater. For instance maps of the evolution of piezometric head are difficult to interpret. To better express the risk evolution, a new indicator was defined: the evolution of the groundwater crisis duration, ie, the period when the charge of the aquifer is below the crisis piezometric level defined by the stakeholders. Such crisis piezometric levels are used to help defining the period when the groundwater abstraction should be reduced. Such maps are more efficient to communicate with water resources managers. This communication will focus on the results from the MEDDE Explore 2070 and ANR Oracle projects.

  14. Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation

    Treesearch

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar

    2012-01-01

    To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...

  15. Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient.

    PubMed

    Kates, Robert W; Travis, William R; Wilbanks, Thomas J

    2012-05-08

    All human-environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.

  16. Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient

    PubMed Central

    Kates, Robert W.; Travis, William R.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.

    2012-01-01

    All human–environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations. PMID:22509036

  17. Changes in Rumen Microbial Community Composition during Adaption to an In Vitro System and the Impact of Different Forages

    PubMed Central

    Lengowski, Melanie B.; Zuber, Karin H. R.; Witzig, Maren; Möhring, Jens; Boguhn, Jeannette; Rodehutscord, Markus

    2016-01-01

    This study examined ruminal microbial community composition alterations during initial adaption to and following incubation in a rumen simulation system (Rusitec) using grass or corn silage as substrates. Samples were collected from fermenter liquids at 0, 2, 4, 12, 24, and 48 h and from feed residues at 0, 24, and 48 h after initiation of incubation (period 1) and on day 13 (period 2). Microbial DNA was extracted and real-time qPCR was used to quantify differences in the abundance of protozoa, methanogens, total bacteria, Fibrobacter succinogenes, Ruminococcus albus, Ruminobacter amylophilus, Prevotella bryantii, Selenomonas ruminantium, and Clostridium aminophilum. We found that forage source and sampling time significantly influenced the ruminal microbial community. The gene copy numbers of most microbial species (except C. aminophilum) decreased in period 1; however, adaption continued through period 2 for several species. The addition of fresh substrate in period 2 led to increasing copy numbers of all microbial species during the first 2–4 h in the fermenter liquid except protozoa, which showed a postprandial decrease. Corn silage enhanced the growth of R. amylophilus and F. succinogenes, and grass silage enhanced R. albus, P. bryantii, and C. aminophilum. No effect of forage source was detected on total bacteria, protozoa, S. ruminantium, or methanogens or on total gas production, although grass silage enhanced methane production. This study showed that the Rusitec provides a stable system after an adaption phase that should last longer than 48 h, and that the forage source influenced several microbial species. PMID:26928330

  18. Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Frances C.; Lobell, David B.

    2014-07-01

    Projecting the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires knowing or assuming how farmers will adapt. However, empirical estimates of the effectiveness of this private adaptation are scarce and the sensitivity of impact assessments to adaptation assumptions is not well understood. Here we assess the potential effectiveness of private farmer adaptation in Europe by jointly estimating both short-run and long-run response functions using time-series and cross-sectional variation in subnational yield and profit data. The difference between the impacts of climate change projected using the short-run (limited adaptation) and long-run (substantial adaptation) response curves can be interpreted as the private adaptation potential. We find high adaptation potential for maize to future warming but large negative effects and only limited adaptation potential for wheat and barley. Overall, agricultural profits could increase slightly under climate change if farmers adapt but could decrease in many areas if there is no adaptation. Decomposing the variance in 2040 projected yields and farm profits using an ensemble of 13 climate model runs, we find that the rate at which farmers will adapt to rising temperatures is an important source of uncertainty.

  19. The impact of climate change and sustainable land management based adaptation on hydrology and soil erosion of a large semiarid catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eekhout, Joris; de Vente, Joris; Terink, Wilco

    2016-04-01

    Climate change has strong implications for many essential ecosystem services, such as provision of drinking and irrigation water, soil erosion and flood control. Especially large impacts are expected in the Mediterranean, already characterised by frequent floods and droughts, and for which less rainfall and more extreme weather events are projected for the coming decades. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies are increasingly promoted to reduce the risks associated with climate change on ecosystem services. However, there is surprisingly little known about their impacts and trade-offs on ecosystem services at regional scales. The aim of this research is to provide insight in the potential of SLM for climate change adaptation, focusing on regional-scale impacts on soil and water resources. We applied the processed-based spatially-distributed hydrological model SPHY (Spatial Processes in HYdrology) on a daily timescale to the semi-arid Segura River catchment (18,800 km2) in SE Spain. In addition, we coupled the MUSLE soil erosion equation to the hydrological model to simulate soil erosion and sediment transport. We run the model for three periods: one historic (1981-2000) and two future scenarios (2031-2050 and 2081-2100), with and without implementation of SLM strategies. Climate input data for the historic scenario was based on interpolated measured data and for the future scenarios on output from regional climate models for different emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Realistic scenarios of SLM practices were based on a previous stakeholder consultation process. Analysis of the regional climate models under the most extreme emission scenario showed an average decrease of yearly precipitation of 97 mm (28%) and an increase of average temperature of 4.8 °C (29%). Preliminary model results, based on these scenarios, show a maximum 80% decrease in discharge under future climate conditions. Wide-scale implementation of SLM can effectively contribute to

  20. Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masutomi, Yuji; Hanasaki, Naota; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Shiogama, Hideo; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

    2015-09-16

    Agricultural adaptation is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and to maintain food production. However, few studies have assessed the course of adaptation along with the progress of climate change in each of the current major food producing countries. Adaptation pathways, which describe the temporal sequences of adaptations, are helpful for illustrating the timing and intensity of the adaptation required. Here we present adaptation pathways in the current major wheat-producing countries, based on sequential introduction of the minimum adaptation measures necessary to maintain current wheat yields through the 21st century. We considered two adaptation options: (i) expanding irrigation infrastructure; and (ii) switching crop varieties and developing new heat-tolerant varieties. We find that the adaptation pathways differ markedly among the countries. The adaptation pathways are sensitive to both the climate model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system, and the degree of sensitivity differs among countries. Finally, the negative impacts of climate change could be moderated by implementing adaptations steadily according to forecasts of the necessary future adaptations, as compared to missing the appropriate timing to implement adaptations.

  1. Procedures to Evaluate Sea Level Change; Impacts, Responses and Adaptation; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-01-01

    human health and safety, economic costs and benefits , environmental impacts, and other social effects. Annapolis, MD 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15...strategy. Additional information regarding project area sensitivity, potential consequences, available response time as well as benefit / cost ...environmental, policy, benefit - cost , and residual risk for a project. Early on in the process the goal is to determine to what extent different

  2. Climate Change Adaptation: Putting Principles into Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausden, Malcolm

    2014-10-01

    Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years. Significant long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.

  3. IPCC Working Group II: Impacts and Adaptation Part I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2007-12-01

    The IPCC (as opposed to the UN Framework Convention) defines climate change as" any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity". The IPCC Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability) was charged with assessing the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of vulnerability to climate change, and, the negative and positive consequences for ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health. The Working Group II report focused on the following issues for different sectors and regions (e.g. water, agriculture, biodiversity) and communities (coastal, island, etc.): · The role of adaptation in reducing vulnerability and impacts, · Assessment of adaptation capacity, options and constraints, and · Enhancing adaptation practice and operations. This presentation will address the following questions in the context of the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG II: · What are the barriers, knowledge gaps, and opportunities for impacts assessments? · How are decisions about adaptation being made, and what types of adaptation strategies are being undertaken? · What are good adaptation practices and how are they learned over time? Examples will be drawn from the freshwater resources, small islands and adaptation chapters to which the presenter contributed. Many lessons have been identified but few have been implemented or evaluated over time. Adaptation occurs in the context of multiple stresses. Adaptation will be important in coping with early impacts in the near-term and continue to be important as our climate changes, regardless of how that change is derived. It is important to note that unmitigated climate change could, in the long term, exceed the capacity of different natural, managed and human systems to adapt. The assessment leads to the following conclusions: · Adaptation to climate change is already taking place, but on a limited basis · Adaptation measures

  4. The effects of global climate change on Southeast Asia: A survey of likely impacts and problems of adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Njoto, Sukrisno; Howe, Charles W.

    1991-01-01

    Study results indicate the likelihood of significant net damages from climate change, in particular damages from sea-level rise and higher temperatures that seem unlikely to be offset by favorable shifts in precipitation and carbon dioxide. Also indicated was the importance of better climate models, in particular models that can calculate climate change on a regional scale appropriate to policy-making. In spite of this potential for damage, there seems to be a low level of awareness and concern, probably caused by the higher priority given to economic growth and reinforced by the great uncertainty in the forecasts. The common property nature of global environment systems also leads to a feeling of helplessness on the part of country governments.

  5. Adapting to climate change in United States national forests

    Treesearch

    G. M. Blate; L. A. Joyce; J. S. Littell; S. G. McNulty; C. I. Millar; S. C. Moser; R. P. Neilson; K. O’Halloran; D. L. Peterson

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is already affecting forests and other ecosystems, and additional, potentially more severe impacts are expected (IPCC, 2007; CCSP, 2008a, 2008b). As a result, forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their goals. Adaptations of forest ecosystems, which in this context refer to adjustments...

  6. A Model for Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasqualini, D.; Keating, G. N.

    2009-12-01

    Climate models predict serious impacts on the western U.S. in the next few decades, including increased temperatures and reduced precipitation. In combination, these changes are linked to profound impacts on fundamental systems, such as water and energy supplies, agriculture, population stability, and the economy. Global and national imperatives for climate change mitigation and adaptation are made actionable at the state level, for instance through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and incentives for renewable energy sources. However, adaptation occurs at the local level, where energy and water usage can be understood relative to local patterns of agriculture, industry, and culture. In response to the greenhouse gas emission reductions required by California’s Assembly Bill 32 (2006), Sonoma County has committed to sharp emissions reductions across several sectors, including water, energy, and transportation. To assist Sonoma County develop a renewable energy (RE) portfolio to achieve this goal we have developed an integrated assessment model, CLEAR (CLimate-Energy Assessment for Resiliency) model. Building on Sonoma County’s existing baseline studies of energy use, carbon emissions and potential RE sources, the CLEAR model simulates the complex interactions among technology deployment, economics and social behavior. This model enables assessment of these and other components with specific analysis of their coupling and feedbacks because, due to the complex nature of the problem, the interrelated sectors cannot be studied independently. The goal is an approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation that is replicable for use by other interested communities. The model user interfaces helps stakeholders and policymakers understand options for technology implementation.

  7. Renewable Energies and Enhanced Energy Efficiencies: Mitigation/Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts on Cyprus and in the Eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    The Eastern Mediterranean in general and Cyprus in particular are considered "hot spots" of future climate change. This will become manifest through an increase in the number and duration of drought events and extended hot-spells. The need to cope with the impacts of climate change will lead to enhanced requirements for cooling of private and public housing and growing demands for potable water derived from seawater desalination. This in turn will cause increasing pressures on electricity production and will result in additional strain on the energy sector in the region. For Cyprus, the current electricity production is entirely based on fossil-fuel fired power plants. However, the use of conventional energy sources is clearly an undesirable option. It enhances the economic burden on energy consumers and at the same time increases Cyprus' dependency on external providers of petroleum products. Moreover, it leads to growing emissions of carbon dioxide and thereby worsens Cyprus' already challenged greenhouse gas emission budget. While current emissions amount to about 9.9 Mill. t of CO2, the total allowance according to EU regulations lies at 5.5 Mill. t. The current building stock on Cyprus lacks basic measures for energy efficiency. This is particularly noteworthy with regard to insufficient insulation of buildings, which causes significant amounts of energy to be expanded for cooling. In light of these facts, an increased use of renewable energies and measures to enhance energy efficiencies in the built environment constitute important elements of a stringent and effective mitigation/adaptation strategy to climate change. The Eastern Mediterranean is among the most suitable location for the utilization of solar energy in Europe. A global direct normal irradiance of more than 1 800 kWh/m2 on Cyprus offers a renewable electricity potential of app. 20 to 23 TWh/yr when concentrated solar power (CSP) technology is employed. With regard to enhanced energy efficiency

  8. Impact assessment of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and mustard (Brassica spp.) production and its adaptation strategies in different districts of Gujarat, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, V.; Patel, H. R.; Yadav, S. B.; Patil, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    Gujarat is the western-most state of India with a long (1600 km) sea coast on the Arabian Sea. Average annual rainfall ranges from as high as 1900 mm in the sub-humid southeast to as low as 250 mm in the arid north. There are three distinct crop seasons- rainy (June to September), winter (Oct.-Nov. through Feb.-March) and summer (Feb-March through May-June). Wheat and mustard are grown during winter seasons. The past climatic records suggested increasing trends in rainfall( 2 to 5 mm per year), maximum (0.03 to 0.05 0C per year) and minimum temperatures (0.02 to 0.05 0C per year) at most of places in Gujarat. But the minimum temperature is fould to be increasing significantly at all the locations. This affects the winter season crops viz. wheat and mustard adversely. Simulation results with DSSAT CERES-wheat model revealed that with increase in temperature by 2 0C in different months (November to February) the decrease in wheat yield is observed between 7 to 29 per cent. The impact of increase in maximum temperature during early (November) and late (February) is less (<12.5 %) than that during active vegetative and reproductive period (December and January; >24.8 %). The climate change projections during 2071-2100 using PRECIS output suggested that there would be increase in maximum temperature by 3.2 to 5.2 0C in different districts of Gujarat over baseline period of 1961-1990 while minimum temperature is project to increase by 2.8 to 5.8 0C. Rainfall is also projected to increase by 28 to 70 per cent in different districts. The impact of climate change on wheat would be reduction in its duration by 14-20 days and the grain yield would be reduced by 20-55 per cent in different districts. In case of mustard crops the duration of crop would be reduced by 11 to 16 days and seed yield would be reduced by 32-50 per cent. In order to mitigate the ill effect of climate change, various adaptation strategies vis change in dates of sowing, change in variety, additional

  9. EMS adaptation for climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, C.; Chang, Y.; Wen, J.; Tsai, M.

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to find an appropriate scenario of pre-hospital transportation of an emergency medical service (EMS) system for burdensome casualties resulting from extreme climate events. A case of natural catastrophic events in Taiwan, 88 wind-caused disasters, was reviewed and analyzed. A sequential-conveyance method was designed to shorten the casualty transportation time and to promote the efficiency of ambulance services. A proposed mobile emergency medical center was first constructed in a safe area, but nearby the disaster area. The Center consists of professional medical personnel who process the triage of incoming patients and take care of casualties with minor injuries. Ambulances in the Center were ready to sequentially convey the casualties with severer conditions to an assigned hospital that is distant from the disaster area for further treatment. The study suggests that if we could construct a spacious and well-equipped mobile emergency medical center, only a small portion of casualties would need to be transferred to distant hospitals. This would reduce the over-crowding problem in hospital ERs. First-line ambulances only reciprocated between the mobile emergency medical center and the disaster area, saving time and shortening the working distances. Second-line ambulances were highly regulated between the mobile emergency medical center and requested hospitals. The ambulance service of the sequential-conveyance method was found to be more efficient than the conventional method and was concluded to be more profitable and reasonable on paper in adapting to climate change. Therefore, additional practical work should be launched to collect more precise quantitative data.

  10. A roadmap for climate change adaptation in Sweden's forests: addressing wicked problems using adaptive management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We

  11. Monitoring adaptive genetic responses to environmental change

    Treesearch

    Michael M. Hansen; Isabelle Olivieri; Donald M. Waller; Einar E. Nielsen; F. W. Allendorf; M. K. Schwartz; C. S. Baker; D. P. Gregovich; J. A. Jackson; K. C. Kendall; L. Laikre; K. McKelvey; M. C. Neel; N. Ryman; R. Short Bull; J. B. Stetz; D. A. Tallmon; C. D. Vojta; R. S. Waples

    2012-01-01

    Widespread environmental changes including climate change, selective harvesting and landscape alterations now greatly affect selection regimes for most organisms. How animals and plants can adapt to these altered environments via contemporary evolution is thus of strong interest. We discuss how to use genetic monitoring to study adaptive responses via repeated analysis...

  12. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

  13. 2012 NEHA/UL sabbatical report: vulnerability to potential impacts of climate change: adaptation and risk communication strategies for environmental health practitioners in the United Kingdom.

    PubMed

    Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut

    2014-04-01

    Climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning have become increasingly important to environmental health practitioners (EHPs). The NEHA/UL Sabbatical Exchange Award allowed me to investigate how EHPs in the UK are incorporating climate change planning and communication strategies into their work. Projected climate change risks in the UK include flooding, extreme heat, water shortages, severe weather, decreased air quality, and changes in vectors. Despite public perception and funding challenges, all the local government representatives with whom I met incorporated climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning into their work. The mandated Community Risk Register serves as a key planning document developed by each local government authority and is a meaningful way to look at potential climate change health risks. Adaptation and sustainability were common threads in my meetings. These often took the form of "going green" with transportation, energy efficiency, conserving resources, and building design because the efforts made sense monetarily as future cost savings. Communication strategies targeted a variety of audiences (EHPs, non-EHP government employees, politicians, and the general public) using a broad range of communication channels (professional training, lobbying, conferences and fairs, publications, print materials, Internet resources, social media, billboards, etc).

  14. Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change.

    PubMed

    Araya-Muñoz, Dahyann; Metzger, Marc J; Stuart, Neil; Wilson, A Meriwether W; Alvarez, Luis

    2016-12-01

    Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. We examine the capacity of adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling was developed to standardise and aggregate, through a stepwise approach, seventeen indicators derived from widely available census statistical data into an adaptive capacity index. The results indicate that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002. However, the relative differences between municipalities did not change significantly over the studied timeframe. Fuzzy overlay allowed us to standardise and to effectively aggregate indicators with differing ranges and granularities of attribute values into an overall index. It also provided a conceptually sound and reproducible means of exploring the interplay of many indicators that individually influence adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it captured the complex, aggregated and continued nature of the adaptive capacity, favouring to deal with gaps of data and knowledge associated with the concept of adaptive capacity. The resulting maps can help identify municipalities where adaptive capacity is weak and identify which components of adaptive capacity need strengthening. Identification of these capacity conditions can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas and how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change.

  15. The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, James D.; McDowell, Graham; Jones, Julie

    2014-10-01

    The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts.

  16. Engaging a moving target: Adapting to rates of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shayegh, S.; Caldeira, K.; Moreno-Cruz, J.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is affecting the planet and its human and natural systems at an increasing rate. As temperatures continue to rise, the international community has increasingly been considering adaptation measures to prepare for future climate change. However, most discussion around adaptation strategies has focused on preparedness for some expected amount of climate change impacts, e.g. 2 meters sea level rise. In this study, we discuss adaptation to rates of change as an alternative conceptual framework for thinking about adaptation. Adaptation is not only about adapting to amounts of change, but the rate at which these changes occur is also critically important. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal coastal investment in the face of ongoing sea level rise. Sea level rise threatens coastal assets. Finite resources could be devoted to building infrastructure further inland or to building coastal defense systems. A possible policy response could be to create a "no-build" coastal buffer zone that anticipates a future higher sea level. We present a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among various important factors (rate of sea level rise, discount rate, capital depreciation rate, attractiveness of coastal land, etc). For some cases, strategies that combine periodic defensive investments (e.g. dikes) with planned retreat can maximize welfare when adapting to rates of climate change. In other cases, planned retreat may be optimal. It is important to prepare for ongoing increasing amounts of climate change. Preparing for a fixed amount of climate change can lead to a suboptimal solution. Climate is likely to continue changing throughout this century and beyond. To reduce adverse climate impacts, ecosystems and human systems will need to continuously adapt to a moving target.

  17. Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans in California: A Guide and Online Visualization Tool for Planners to Incorporate Risks of Climate Change Impacts in Policy and Decision-Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, W.; Tucker, K.; DeFlorio, J.

    2012-12-01

    for the strategy framework. The strategy framework for MPOs and RTPAs is used to: 1) Assess the relative risks to their transportation system infrastructure and services of different climate stressors (sea level rise, temperature changes, snow melt, precipita¬tion changes, flooding, extreme weather events); 2) Conduct an asset inventory and vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure; 3) Prioritize segments and facilities for adaptation action; 4) Identify appropriate and cost-effective adaptation strategies; and 5) Incorporate climate impact considerations into future long-range transportation planning and investment decisions. This framework complements the broader planning and investment processes that MPOs and RTPAs already manage. It recognizes the varying capacities and resources among MPOs and RTPAs and provide methods that can be used by organizations seeking to conduct in-depth analysis or a more sketch-level assessment.

  18. Public Libraries: Adapting to Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Durrance, Joan; Van Fleet, Connie

    1992-01-01

    Reports on a study of changing trends in public libraries. Interviews with public library leaders identified five areas of changing emphasis: information technology, community needs, strategic planning, public relations and marketing, and funding. (seven references) (EA)

  19. Climate Change Adaptation Practices in Various Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanik, A.; Tekten, D.

    2017-08-01

    The paper will be a review work on the recent strategies of EU in general, and will underline the inspected sectoral based adaptation practices and action plans of 7 countries; namely Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Denmark, USA and Kenya from Africa continent. Although every countries’ action plan have some similarities on sectoral analysis, each country in accordance with the specific nature of the problem seems to create its own sectoral analysis. Within this context, green and white documents of EU adaptation to climate change, EU strategy on climate change, EU targets of 2020 on climate change and EU adaptation support tools are investigated.

  20. Agricultural adaptation of climate change in China.

    PubMed

    You, S C

    2001-04-01

    This paper presents the study on agriculture adaptation to climate change by adopting the assumed land use change strategy to resist the water shortage and to build the capacity to adapt the expected climate change in the northern China. The cost-benefit analysis result shows that assumed land use change from high water consuming rice cultivation to other crops is very effective. Over 7 billions m3 of water can be saved. Potential conflicts between different social interest groups, different regions, demand and supply, and present and future interests have been analyzed for to form a policy to implement the adaptation strategy. Trade, usually taken as one of adaptation strategies, was suggested as a policy option for to support land use change, which not only meets the consumption demand, but also, in terms of resources, imports water resources.

  1. Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armsworth, Paul R.; Larson, Eric R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Sax, Dov F.; Simonin, Paul W.; Blossey, Bernd; Green, Nancy; Lester, Liza; Klein, Mary L.; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Runge, Michael C.; Shaw, M. Rebecca

    2015-01-01

    Conservation organizations must adapt to respond to the ecological impacts of global change. Numerous changes to conservation actions (eg facilitated ecological transitions, managed relocations, or increased corridor development) have been recommended, but some institutional restructuring within organizations may also be needed. Here we discuss the capacity of conservation organizations to adapt to changing environmental conditions, focusing primarily on public agencies and nonprofits active in land protection and management in the US. After first reviewing how these organizations anticipate and detect impacts affecting target species and ecosystems, we then discuss whether they are sufficiently flexible to prepare and respond by reallocating funding, staff, or other resources. We raise new hypotheses about how the configuration of different organizations enables them to protect particular conservation targets and manage for particular biophysical changes that require coordinated management actions over different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we provide a discussion resource to help conservation organizations assess their capacity to adapt.

  2. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    SciTech Connect

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  3. Climate Change and Agriculture: Effects and Adaptation

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This document is a synthesis of science literature on the effects of climate change on agriculture and issues associated with agricultural adaptation to climate change. Information is presented on how long-term changes in air temperatures, precipitation, and atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide wi...

  4. Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Public Health Practice: Using Adaptive Management to Increase Adaptive Capacity and Build Resilience

    PubMed Central

    McDowell, Julia Z.; Luber, George

    2011-01-01

    Background: Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems. Objectives: We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate–health challenges that may lie outside public health’s coping range, and consider changes in practice that could increase public health’s adaptive capacity. Methods: We conducted a substantive, interdisciplinary literature review focused on climate change adaptation in public health, social learning, and management of socioeconomic systems exhibiting dynamic complexity. Discussion: There are two competing views of how public health should engage climate change adaptation. Perspectives differ on whether climate change will primarily amplify existing hazards, requiring enhancement of existing public health functions, or present categorically distinct threats requiring innovative management strategies. In some contexts, distinctly climate-sensitive health threats may overwhelm public health’s adaptive capacity. Addressing these threats will require increased emphasis on institutional learning, innovative management strategies, and new and improved tools. Adaptive management, an iterative framework that embraces uncertainty, uses modeling, and integrates learning, may be a useful approach. We illustrate its application to extreme heat in an urban setting. Conclusions: Increasing public health capacity will be necessary for certain climate–health threats. Focusing efforts to increase adaptive capacity in specific areas, promoting institutional learning, embracing adaptive management, and developing tools to facilitate these processes are important priorities and can improve the resilience of local public health systems to climate change. PMID:21997387

  5. Beyond Adapting to Climate Change: Embedding Adaptation in Responses to Multiple Threats and Stresses

    SciTech Connect

    Wilbanks, Thomas J; Kates, Dr. Robert W.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change impacts are already being experienced in every region of the United States and every part of the world most severely in Arctic regions and adaptation is needed now. Although climate change adaptation research is still in its infancy, significant adaptation planning in the United States has already begun in a number of localities. This article seeks to broaden the adaptation effort by integrating it with broader frameworks of hazards research, sustainability science, and community and regional resilience. To extend the range of experience, we draw from ongoing case studies in the Southeastern United States and the environmental history of New Orleans to consider the multiple threats and stresses that all communities and regions experience. Embedding climate adaptation in responses to multiple threats and stresses helps us to understand climate change impacts, themselves often products of multiple stresses, to achieve community acceptance of needed adaptations as co-benefits of addressing multiple threats, and to mainstream the process of climate adaptation through the larger envelope of social relationships, communication channels, and broad-based awareness of needs for risk management that accompany community resilience.

  6. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  7. "Climate change impact on water resources - a challenge for IWRM". BRAHMATWINN - Twinning European and South Asian River Basins to enhance capacity and implement adaptive management approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartosch, A.; Pechstädt, J.; Müller Schmied, H.; Flügel, W.-A.

    2009-04-01

    BRAHMATWINN addresses climate change impact of the hydrology of two macro-scale river basins having headwaters in alpine mountain massifs. The project will elaborate on the consequential vulnerability of present IWRM and river basin management that have been persistent in these basins during the past decades and will develop tested approaches and technologies for adaptive IWRM and resilience. The overall objective of BRAHMATWINN is to enhance and improve capacity to carry out a harmonized integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach as addressed by the European Water Initiative (EWI) in headwater river systems of alpine mountain massifs in respect to impacts from likely climate change, and to transfer professional IWRM expertise, approaches and tools based on case studies carried out in twinning European and Asian river basins, the Upper Danube River Basin (UDRB) and the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin (UBRB). Sustainable IWRM in river basins of such kind face common problems: (i) floods e.g. during spring melt or heavy storms and droughts during summer; (ii) competing water demands for agriculture, hydropower, rural, urban and industrial development, and the environment; (iii) pollution from point as well as diffuse sources; and (iv) socio-economic and legal issues related to water allocation. Besides those common topics both basins also differ in other issues requiring the adaptation of the IWRM tools; these are for example climate conditions, the density of monitoring network, political framework and trans-boundary conflicts. An IWRM has to consider all water-related issues like the securing of water supply for the population in sufficient quantity and quality, the protection of the ecological function of water bodies and it has to consider the probability of natural hazards like floods and droughts. Furthermore the resource water should be threatened in a way that the needs of future generations can be satisfied. Sustainable development is one of the

  8. A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa

  9. A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa

  10. VisAdapt: A Visualization Tool to Support Climate Change Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Johansson, Jimmy; Opach, Tomasz; Glaas, Erik; Neset, Tina-Simone; Navarra, Carlo; Linner, Bjorn-Ola; Rod, Jan Ketil

    2017-01-01

    The web-based visualization VisAdapt tool was developed to help laypeople in the Nordic countries assess how anticipated climate change will impact their homes. The tool guides users through a three-step visual process that helps them explore risks and identify adaptive actions specifically modified to their location and house type. This article walks through the tool's multistep, user-centered design process. Although VisAdapt's target end users are Nordic homeowners, the insights gained from the development process and the lessons learned from the project are applicable to a wide range of domains.

  11. Adaptive Landscapes of Resistance Genes Change as Antibiotic Concentrations Change.

    PubMed

    Mira, Portia M; Meza, Juan C; Nandipati, Anna; Barlow, Miriam

    2015-10-01

    Most studies on the evolution of antibiotic resistance are focused on selection for resistance at lethal antibiotic concentrations, which has allowed the detection of mutant strains that show strong phenotypic traits. However, solely focusing on lethal concentrations of antibiotics narrowly limits our perspective of antibiotic resistance evolution. New high-resolution competition assays have shown that resistant bacteria are selected at relatively low concentrations of antibiotics. This finding is important because sublethal concentrations of antibiotics are found widely in patients undergoing antibiotic therapies, and in nonmedical conditions such as wastewater treatment plants, and food and water used in agriculture and farming. To understand the impacts of sublethal concentrations on selection, we measured 30 adaptive landscapes for a set of TEM β-lactamases containing all combinations of the four amino acid substitutions that exist in TEM-50 for 15 β-lactam antibiotics at multiple concentrations. We found that there are many evolutionary pathways within this collection of landscapes that lead to nearly every TEM-genotype that we studied. While it is known that the pathways change depending on the type of β-lactam, this study demonstrates that the landscapes including fitness optima also change dramatically as the concentrations of antibiotics change. Based on these results we conclude that the presence of multiple concentrations of β-lactams in an environment result in many different adaptive landscapes through which pathways to nearly every genotype are available. Ultimately this may increase the diversity of genotypes in microbial populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Local initiatives and adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Blanco, Ana V Rojas

    2006-03-01

    Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number and strength of natural hazards produced by climatic events. This paper presents some examples of the experiences of community-based organisations (CBOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) of variations in climate, and looks at how they have incorporated their findings into the design and implementation of local adaptation strategies. Local organisations integrate climate change and climatic hazards into the design and development of their projects as a means of adapting to their new climatic situation. Projects designed to boost the resilience of local livelihoods are good examples of local adaptation strategies. To upscale these adaptation initiatives, there is a need to improve information exchange between CBOs, NGOs and academia. Moreover, there is a need to bridge the gap between scientific and local knowledge in order to create projects capable of withstanding stronger natural hazards.

  13. Helping your woodland adapt to climate change

    Treesearch

    Tracey Saxby; Marcus Griswold; Caroline Wicks

    2013-01-01

    Your woods are always changing and adapting as they grow and mature, or regrow after agricultural abandonment, natural disturbances, or harvesting activities. Events like storms, droughts, insect and disease outbreaks, or other stressors can damage trees or slow their growth. A changing climate may make your woods more susceptible to the problems these events can cause...

  14. Phytoplankton adapt to changing ocean environments.

    PubMed

    Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Müller-Karger, Frank E; Troccoli Ghinaglia, Luis

    2015-05-05

    Model projections indicate that climate change may dramatically restructure phytoplankton communities, with cascading consequences for marine food webs. It is currently not known whether evolutionary change is likely to be able to keep pace with the rate of climate change. For simplicity, and in the absence of evidence to the contrary, most model projections assume species have fixed environmental preferences and will not adapt to changing environmental conditions on the century scale. Using 15 y of observations from Station CARIACO (Carbon Retention in a Colored Ocean), we show that most of the dominant species from a marine phytoplankton community were able to adapt their realized niches to track average increases in water temperature and irradiance, but the majority of species exhibited a fixed niche for nitrate. We do not know the extent of this adaptive capacity, so we cannot conclude that phytoplankton will be able to adapt to the changes anticipated over the next century, but community ecosystem models can no longer assume that phytoplankton cannot adapt.

  15. Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Liu, De Li; Macadam, Ian; Kelly, Georgina

    2013-07-01

    The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer's training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short

  16. Development of Climate Change Adaptation Platform using Spatial Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, J.; Oh, K. Y.; Lee, M. J.; Han, W. J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change adaptation has attracted growing attention with the recent extreme weather conditions that affect people around the world. More and more countries, including the Republic of Korea, have begun to hatch adaptation plan to resolve these matters of great concern. They all, meanwhile, have mentioned that it should come first to integrate climate information in all analysed areas. That's because climate information is not independently made through one source; that is to say, the climate information is connected one another in a complicated way. That is the reason why we have to promote integrated climate change adaptation platform before setting up climate change adaptation plan. Therefore, the large-scaled project has been actively launched and worked on. To date, we researched 620 literatures and interviewed 51 government organizations. Based on the results of the researches and interviews, we obtained 2,725 impacts about vulnerability assessment information such as Monitoring and Forecasting, Health, Disaster, Agriculture, Forest, Water Management, Ecosystem, Ocean/Fisheries, Industry/Energy. Among 2,725 impacts, 995 impacts are made into a database until now. This database is made up 3 sub categories like Climate-Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, presented by IPCC. Based on the constructed database, vulnerability assessments were carried out in order to evaluate climate change capacity of local governments all over the country. These assessments were conducted by using web-based vulnerability assessment tool which was newly developed through this project. These results have shown that, metropolitan areas like Seoul, Pusan, Inchon, and so on have high risks more than twice than rural areas. Acknowledgements: The authors appreciate the support that this study has received from "Development of integrated model for climate change impact and vulnerability assessment and strengthening the framework for model implementation ", an initiative of the

  17. Changes in adaptive capacity of Kenyan fishing communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cinner, Joshua E.; Huchery, Cindy; Hicks, Christina C.; Daw, Tim M.; Marshall, Nadine; Wamukota, Andrew; Allison, Edward H.

    2015-09-01

    Coastal communities are particularly at risk from the impacts of a changing climate. Building the capacity of coastal communities to cope with and recover from a changing environment is a critical means to reducing their vulnerability. Yet, few studies have quantitatively examined adaptive capacity in such communities. Here, we build on an emerging body of research examining adaptive capacity in natural resource-dependent communities in two important ways. We examine how nine indicators of adaptive capacity vary: among segments of Kenyan fishing communities; and over time. Socially disaggregated analyses found that the young, those who had migrated, and those who do not participate in decision-making seemed least prepared for adapting to change in these resource-dependent communities. These results highlight the most vulnerable segments of society when it comes to preparing for and adapting to change in resource-dependent communities. Comparisons through time showed that aspects of adaptive capacity seemed to have increased between 2008 and 2012 owing to higher observed community infrastructure and perceived availability of credit.

  18. Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgeson, Lucien; Maslin, Mark; Poessinouw, Martyn; Howard, Steve

    2016-06-01

    Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Policymakers need to understand current adaptation spend to plan comprehensively and effectively. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined `adaptation economy', we analyse current climate change adaptation efforts in ten megacities. In all cases, the adaptation economy remains a small part of the overall economy, representing a maximum of 0.33% of a city's gross domestic product (here referred to as GDPc). Differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed, emerging and developing countries, ranging from #15 million to #1,600 million. Comparing key subsectors, we demonstrate the differences in adaptation profiles. Developing cities have higher proportional spend on health and agriculture, whereas developed cities have higher spend on energy and water. Spend per capita and percentage of GDPc comparisons more clearly show disparities between cities. Developing country cities spend half the proportion of GDPc and significantly less per capita, suggesting that adaptation spend is driven by wealth rather than the number of vulnerable people. This indicates that current adaptation activities are insufficient in major population centres in developing and emerging economies.

  19. Data Bus Adapts to Changing Traffic Level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lew, Eugene; Deruiter, John; Varga, Mike

    1987-01-01

    Access becomes timed when collisions threaten. Two-mode scheme used to grant terminals access to data bus. Causes bus to alternate between random accessibility and controlled accessibility to optimize performance and adapt to changing data-traffic conditions. Bus is part of 100-Mb/s optical-fiber packet data system.

  20. Impact of Pre-adapted HIV Transmission

    PubMed Central

    Carlson, Jonathan M.; Du, Victor Y.; Pfeifer, Nico; Bansal, Anju; Tan, Vincent Y.F.; Power, Karen; Brumme, Chanson J.; Kreimer, Anat; DeZiel, Charles E.; Fusi, Nicolo; Schaefer, Malinda; Brockman, Mark A.; Gilmour, Jill; Price, Matt A.; Kilembe, William; Haubrich, Richard; John, Mina; Mallal, Simon; Shapiro, Roger; Frater, John; Harrigan, P. Richard; Ndung’u, Thumbi; Allen, Susan; Heckerman, David; Sidney, John; Allen, Todd M.; Goulder, Philip J.R.; Brumme, Zabrina L.; Hunter, Eric; Goepfert, Paul A.

    2016-01-01

    Human Leukocyte Antigen class I (HLA) restricted CD8+ T lymphocyte (CTL) responses are critical to HIV-1 control. Although HIV can evade these responses, the longer-term impact of viral escape mutants remains unclear, since these variants can also reduce intrinsic viral fitness. To address this question, we here develop a metric to determine the degree of HIV adaptation to an HLA profile. We demonstrate that transmission of viruses pre-adapted to the HLA molecules expressed in the recipient is associated with impaired immunogenicity, elevated viral load and accelerated CD4 decline. Furthermore, the extent of pre-adaptation among circulating viruses explains much of the variation in outcomes attributed to expression of certain HLA alleles. Thus, viral pre-adaptation exploits “holes” in the immune response. Accounting for these holes may be critical for vaccine strategies seeking to elicit functional responses from viral variants, and to HIV cure strategies requiring broad CTL responses to achieve successful eradication of HIV reservoirs. PMID:27183217

  1. Beyond Brainstorming: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garfin, Gregg; Jacobs, Katharine; Buizer, James

    2008-06-01

    Climate Change Adaptation for Water Managers; Oracle, Arizona, 4-5 February 2008; The most visible manifestation of climate change in the American Southwest is its effects on water resources. Since 1999, the region's water supplies and major rivers have been tested by burgeoning population growth and drought. Model projections suggest increasing drought severity and duration due to rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and enhanced atmospheric circulation from the tropics (Hadley circulation).

  2. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    PubMed

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  3. Climate Change: Believing and Seeing Implies Adapting

    PubMed Central

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ±0.01) to 0.81 (SD ±0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ±0.008) to 0.91 (SD ±0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered. PMID:23185568

  4. The psychological impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological impacts: direct (e.g., acute or traumatic effects of extreme weather events and a changed environment); indirect (e.g., threats to emotional well-being based on observation of impacts and concern or uncertainty about future risks); and psychosocial (e.g., chronic social and community effects of heat, drought, migrations, and climate-related conflicts, and postdisaster adjustment). Responses include providing psychological interventions in the wake of acute impacts and reducing the vulnerabilities contributing to their severity; promoting emotional resiliency and empowerment in the context of indirect impacts; and acting at systems and policy levels to address broad psychosocial impacts. The challenge of climate change calls for increased ecological literacy, a widened ethical responsibility, investigations into a range of psychological and social adaptations, and an allocation of resources and training to improve psychologists' competency in addressing climate change-related impacts.

  5. Adaptation of trees, forests and forestry to climate change

    Treesearch

    Daniel J. Chmura; Glenn T. Howe; Paul D. Anderson; Bradley J. St Clair

    2010-01-01

    Ongoing climate change will likely expose trees and forests to new stresses and disturbances during this century. Trees naturally adapt to changes in climate, but their natural adaptive ability may be compromised by the rapid changes projected for this century. In the broad sense, adaptation to climate change also includes the purposeful adaptation of human systems,...

  6. Coastal Hazards and Integration of Impacts in Local Adaptation Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knudsen, P.; Sorensen, C.; Molgaard, M. R.; Broge, N. H.; Andersen, O. B.

    2016-12-01

    Data on sea and groundwater levels, precipitation, land subsidence, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with information on flood and erosion protection measures to analyze water-related impacts from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Future sea extremes will have a large impact but several coupled effects in the hydrological system need to be considered as well to provide for optimal protection and mitigation efforts. For instance, the investment and maintenance costs of securing functional water and wastewater pipes are significantly reduced by incorporating knowledge about climate change. The translation of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures should take into account the potentially affected stakeholders who must collaborate on common and shared adaptation solutions. Here, knowledge integration across levels of governance and between research, private and public institutions, and the local communities provides: understanding of the immediate and potential future challenges; appreciation of different stakeholder motives, business agendas, legislative constraints etc., and a common focus on how to cost-efficiently adapt to and manage impacts of climate change. By construction of a common working platform that is updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from future regional models or extreme events, advances in sea level research can more readily be translated into concrete and local impact measures in a way that handles uncertainties in the future climate and urban development as well as suiting the varying stakeholder needs.

  7. Adaptation Strategies for Global Environmental Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ojima, D. S.; Corell, R.

    2007-12-01

    The global environmental challenges society faces today are unheralded due to the pace at which human activities are affecting the earth system. The rates of energy consumption, nitrogen use and production, and water use increases each year leading to greater global environmental changes affecting warming of the earth system and loss of ecosystem services. The challenge we face today as a society is the manner and speed at which we can adapt to these changes affecting the ecosystem services we depend upon. Innovative strategies are needed to develop the adaptive management tools to integrate the sectors and science necessary to deal with the complexity of effects. Developing strategies to better guide decision making related to climate change trends into changing weather patterns at meaningful temporal and spatial scales are needed, observations and prognostic analyses of climate related triggers of threshold events in ecosystem dynamics, and transfer of knowledge between science, technology, and decision makers. These strategies need to better integrate science (physical, biological, and social knowledge), engineering, policy, and economics interests to create a framework to develop strategies for adaptation and mitigation to global change and to create bridges with institutions and organizations that deal with these issues as a governmental agency or private sector enterprise.

  8. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  9. Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change

    PubMed Central

    Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A.; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

    2015-01-01

    Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian–Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25 000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. PMID:25972463

  10. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  11. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  12. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  13. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for

  14. Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Baron, Jill S.; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.; Joyce, Linda A.; Blate, Geoffrey; Peterson, Charles H.; Palmer, Margaret; Keller, Brian D.; Kareiva, Peter; Scott, J. Michael; Griffith, Brad

    2008-01-01

    The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century – and especially in the last 30 years – is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change. Climate creates the context for ecosystems, and climate variables strongly influence the structure, composition, and processes that characterize distinct ecosystems. Climate change, therefore, is having direct and indirect effects on species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue regardless of emissions mitigation, management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems will become increasingly important. It is essential that management responses to climate change proceed using the best available science despite uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate effects, and the effects of management. Given these uncertainties, management adaptation will require flexibility to reflect our growing understanding of climate change impacts and management effectiveness.

  15. Competencies Demonstrated by Municipal Employees during Adaptation to Climate Change: A Pilot Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pruneau, Diane; Kerry, Jackie; Blain, Sylvie; Evichnevetski, Evgueni; Deguire, Paul; Barbier, Pierre-Yves; Freiman, Viktor; Therrien, Jimmy; Langis, Joanne; Lang, Mathieu

    2013-01-01

    Since coastal communities are already subjected to the impacts of climate change, adaptation has become a necessity. This article presents competencies demonstrated by Canadian municipal employees during an adaptation process to sea level rise. To adapt, the participants demonstrated the following competencies: problem solving (highlighting…

  16. Competencies Demonstrated by Municipal Employees during Adaptation to Climate Change: A Pilot Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pruneau, Diane; Kerry, Jackie; Blain, Sylvie; Evichnevetski, Evgueni; Deguire, Paul; Barbier, Pierre-Yves; Freiman, Viktor; Therrien, Jimmy; Langis, Joanne; Lang, Mathieu

    2013-01-01

    Since coastal communities are already subjected to the impacts of climate change, adaptation has become a necessity. This article presents competencies demonstrated by Canadian municipal employees during an adaptation process to sea level rise. To adapt, the participants demonstrated the following competencies: problem solving (highlighting…

  17. Cellular modes of adaptation to environmental changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huckle, William R.

    2001-10-01

    Eukaryotic cells are remarkably adaptable entities. Whether embedded in solid tissues or freely suspended in blood or other fluids, cells principally exist in an aqueous environment but maintain a hydrophobic barrier, the plasma membrane, across which changes in the environment are detected. Utilizing specialized macromolecular components, cells can sense changes in temperature, hydrostatic pressure, oxygen tension, shear, shape, osmolarity, pH, electrical potential, electromagnetic radiation, and the concentrations of specific chemical compounds. Modes of response are equally varied, ranging from rapid secretion of stored substances to irreversible functional differentiation to self-destruction. Recent research has elucidated many of the enzymatic and genetic programs that accomplish these adaptations and suggests novel targets for therapeutic intervention.

  18. World agriculture and climate change: Economic adaptations. Agriculture economic report

    SciTech Connect

    Darwin, R.; Tsigas, M.; Lewandrowski, J.; Raneses, A.

    1995-06-01

    Recent studies suggest that global increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns during the next century will affect world agriculture. Because farmer adaptations, however, these changes are not likely to imperil world food production. Nevertheless, world production of all goods and services may decline if climate change is severe enough or if cropland expansion is hindered. Impacts are not equally distributed around the world. Agricultural production may increase in polar and alpine areas, but decrease in tropical and some other areas. In the United States, soil moisture losses may reduce agricultural production in the Corn Belt or Southeast.

  19. CSIR Contribution to Defining Adaptive Capacity in the Context of Environmental Change

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-01-31

    including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), stating that adaptation options exist in all sectors, but some adaptation responses...supports CSIR and ERDC research in adaptation to water-related impacts of climate change . The grant supports a comparison of historic human responses to...reducing the exposure to the hazard or reducing the vulnerability associated with the hazard. Whereas the reduction of the hazard ( climate change

  20. Vulnerability assessment and risk level of ecosystem services for climate change impacts and adaptation in the High-Atlas mountain of Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Messouli, Mohammed; Bounoua, Lahouari; Babqiqi, Abdelaziz; Ben Salem, Abdelkrim; Yacoubi-Khebiza, Mohammed

    2010-05-01

    Moroccan mountain biomes are considered endangered due to climate change that affects directly or indirectly different key features (biodiversity, snow cover, run-off processes, and water availability). The present article describes the strategy for achieving collaboration between natural and social scientists, stakeholders, decision-makers, and other societal groups, in order to carry out an integrated assessment of climate change in the High-Atlas Mountains of Morocco, with an emphasis on vulnerability and adaptation. We will use a robust statistical technique to dynamically downscale outputs from the IPCC climates models to the regional study area. Statistical downscaling provides a powerful method for deriving local-to-regional scale information on climate variables from large-scale climate model outputs. The SDSM will be used to produce the high resolution climate change scenarios from climate model outputs at low resolution. These data will be combined with socio-economic attributes such as the amount of water used for irrigation of agricultural lands, agricultural practices and phenology, cost of water delivery and non-market values of produced goods and services. This study, also analyzed spatial and temporal in land use/land cover changes (LUCC) in a typical watershed covering an area of 203 km2 by comparing classified satellite images from 1976, 1989 and 2000 coupled by GIS analyses and also investigated changes in the shape of land use patches over the period. The GIS-platform, which compiles gridded spatial and temporal information of environmental, socio-economic and biophysical data is used to map vulnerability assessment and risk levels over a wide region of Southern High-Atlas. For each scenario, we will derive and analyze near future (10-15 years) key climate indicators strongly related to sustainable management of ecosystem goods and services. Forest cover declined at an average rate of 0.35 ha per year due to timber extraction, cultivation

  1. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    PubMed

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  2. [Caffeine and adaptive changes in the circulatory system during pregnancy].

    PubMed

    Cendrowska-Pinkosz, Monika; Dworzański, Wojciech; Krauze, Magdalena; Burdan, Franciszek

    2017-01-23

    Adaptive physiological changes that occur in pregnant women can fluctuate with the intake of substances with proven, adverse biological effect on the body. Due to the fact that caffeine is one of the most chronically used xenobiotics, the impact of consuming caffeine on adaptive processes in the circulatory system of a pregnant women required a research. Many researchers emphasise its negative effect on the circulatory system of the mother and her offspring. However, in spite of years of observation, there is no clear answer to what extent dose or in what period of time the caffeine modulates the adaptive processes during pregnancy. Because of the potential risk the supply of caffeine during pregnancy should be subjected to considerable restrictions.

  3. Global Change adaptation in water resources management: the Water Change project.

    PubMed

    Pouget, Laurent; Escaler, Isabel; Guiu, Roger; Mc Ennis, Suzy; Versini, Pierre-Antoine

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as changes in climate, water demand or land use, which can be grouped under the term Global Change. The Water Change project (LIFE+ funding) developed a methodology and a tool to assess the Global Change impacts on water resources, thus helping river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. The main result of the project was the creation of a step by step methodology to assess Global Change impacts and define strategies of adaptation. This methodology was tested in the Llobregat river basin (Spain) with the objective of being applicable to any water system. It includes several steps such as setting-up the problem with a DPSIR framework, developing Global Change scenarios, running river basin models and performing a cost-benefit analysis to define optimal strategies of adaptation. This methodology was supported by the creation of a flexible modelling system, which can link a wide range of models, such as hydrological, water quality, and water management models. The tool allows users to integrate their own models to the system, which can then exchange information among them automatically. This enables to simulate the interactions among multiple components of the water cycle, and run quickly a large number of Global Change scenarios. The outcomes of this project make possible to define and test different sets of adaptation measures for the basin that can be further evaluated through cost-benefit analysis. The integration of the results contributes to an efficient decision-making on how to adapt to Global Change impacts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

    PubMed

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2008-02-01

    Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

  5. Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

    PubMed

    Lawler, Joshua J

    2009-04-01

    Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

  6. Mitigation, adaptation, and climate change: results from recent research on US timber markets.

    Treesearch

    Brent Sohngen; Ralph. Alig

    2000-01-01

    This paper reviews recent studies that have addressed how US timber markets may adapt to climate change, and how US forests could be used to mitigate potential climate change. The studies are discussed in light of the ecological and economic assumptions used to estimate adaptation. Estimates of both economic impacts and carbon sequestration costs depend heavily on the...

  7. Adaptive robot path planning in changing environments

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, P.C.

    1994-08-01

    Path planning needs to be fast to facilitate real-time robot programming. Unfortunately, current planning techniques are still too slow to be effective, as they often require several minutes, if not hours of computation. To overcome this difficulty, we present an adaptive algorithm that uses past experience to speed up future performance. It is a learning algorithm suitable for incrementally-changing environments such as those encountered in manufacturing of evolving products and waste-site remediation. The algorithm allows the robot to adapt to its environment by having two experience manipulation schemes: For minor environmental change, we use an object-attached experience abstraction scheme to increase the flexibility of the learned experience; for major environmental change, we use an on-demand experience repair scheme to retain those experiences that remain valid and useful. Using this algorithm, we can effectively reduce the overall robot planning time by re-using the computation result for one task to plan a path for another.

  8. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  9. Probabilistic adaptation in changing microbial environments

    PubMed Central

    Springer, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Microbes growing in animal host environments face fluctuations that have elements of both randomness and predictability. In the mammalian gut, fluctuations in nutrient levels and other physiological parameters are structured by the host’s behavior, diet, health and microbiota composition. Microbial cells that can anticipate environmental fluctuations by exploiting this structure would likely gain a fitness advantage (by adapting their internal state in advance). We propose that the problem of adaptive growth in structured changing environments, such as the gut, can be viewed as probabilistic inference. We analyze environments that are “meta-changing”: where there are changes in the way the environment fluctuates, governed by a mechanism unobservable to cells. We develop a dynamic Bayesian model of these environments and show that a real-time inference algorithm (particle filtering) for this model can be used as a microbial growth strategy implementable in molecular circuits. The growth strategy suggested by our model outperforms heuristic strategies, and points to a class of algorithms that could support real-time probabilistic inference in natural or synthetic cellular circuits. PMID:27994963

  10. Climate change impacts on forestry

    SciTech Connect

    Kirilenko, A.P.; Sedjo, R.A.

    2007-12-11

    Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. The authors' review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. They concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand.

  11. Climate change impacts on forestry

    PubMed Central

    Kirilenko, Andrei P.; Sedjo, Roger A.

    2007-01-01

    Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. Our review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. We concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand. PMID:18077403

  12. Adaptive path planning in changing environments

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Pang C.

    1993-10-01

    Path planning needs to be fast to facilitate real-time robot programming. Unfortunately, current planning techniques are still too slow to be effective, as they often require several minutes, if not hours of computation. To overcome this difficulty, we present an adaptive algorithm that uses previous experience to speed up future performance. It is a learning algorithm suitable for incrementally-changing environments such as those encountered in manufacturing of evolving products and waste-site remediation. The algorithm extends our previous work for stationary environments in two directions: For minor environmental change, an object-attached experience abstraction scheme is introduced to increase the flexibility of the learned experience; for major environmental change, an on-demand experience repair scheme is also introduced to retain those experiences that remain valid and useful. In addition to presenting this algorithm, we identify three other variants with different repair strategies. To compare these algorithms, we develop an analytic model to compare the costs and benefits of the corresponding repair processes. Using this model, we formalize the concept of incremental change, and prove the optimality of our proposed algorithm under such change. Empirically, we also characterize the performance curve of each variant, confirm our theoretical optimality results, and demonstrate the practicality of our algorithm.

  13. Appropriate technology and climate change adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gomez, Carlos

    2016-02-01

    Climate change is emerging as the greatest significant environmental problem for the 21st Century and the most important global challenge faced by human kind. Based on evidence recognized by the international scientific community, climate change is already an unquestionable reality, whose first effects are beginning to be measured. Available climate projections and models can assist in anticipating potential far-reaching consequences for development processes. Climatic transformations will impact the environment, biodiversity and water resources, putting several productive processes at risk; and will represent a threat to public health and water availability in quantity and quality.

  14. The full spectrum of climate change adaptation: testing an analytical framework in Tyrolean mountain agriculture (Austria).

    PubMed

    Grüneis, Heidelinde; Penker, Marianne; Höferl, Karl-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Our scientific view on climate change adaptation (CCA) is unsatisfying in many ways: It is often dominated by a modernistic perspective of planned pro-active adaptation, with a selective focus on measures directly responding to climate change impacts and thus it is far from real-life conditions of those who are actually affected by climate change. Farmers have to simultaneously adapt to multiple changes. Therefore, also empirical climate change adaptation research needs a more integrative perspective on real-life climate change adaptations. This also has to consider "hidden" adaptations, which are not explicitly and directly motivated by CCA but actually contribute to the sector's adaptability to climate change. The aim of the present study is to develop and test an analytic framework that contributes to a broader understanding of CCA and to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and practical action. The framework distinguishes three types of CCA according to their climate related motivations: explicit adaptations, multi-purpose adaptations, and hidden adaptations. Although agriculture is among the sectors that are most affected by climate change, results from the case study of Tyrolean mountain agriculture show that climate change is ranked behind other more pressing "real-life-challenges" such as changing agricultural policies or market conditions. We identified numerous hidden adaptations which make a valuable contribution when dealing with climate change impacts. We conclude that these hidden adaptations have not only to be considered to get an integrative und more realistic view on CCA; they also provide a great opportunity for linking adaptation strategies to farmers' realities.

  15. Adaptation to Impacts of Greenhouse Gases on the Ocean (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldeira, K.

    2010-12-01

    Greenhouse gases are producing changes in ocean temperature and circulation, and these changes are already adversely affecting marine biota. Furthermore, carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans from the atmosphere, and this too is already adversely affecting some marine ecosystems. And, of course, sea-level rise affects both what is above and below the waterline. Clearly, the most effective approach to limit the negative impacts of climate change and acidification on the marine environment is to greatly diminish the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are other measures that can be taken to limit some of the negative effects of these stresses in the marine environment. Marine ecosystems are subject to multiple stresses, including overfishing, pollution, and loss of coastal wetlands that often serve as nurseries for the open ocean. The adaptive capacity of marine environments can be improved by limiting these other stresses. If current carbon dioxide emission trends continue, for some cases (e.g., coral reefs), it is possible that no amount of reduction in other stresses can offset the increase in stresses posed by warming and acidification. For other cases (e.g., blue-water top-predator fisheries), better fisheries management might yield improved population health despite continued warming and acidification. In addition to reducing stresses so as to improve the adaptive capacity of marine ecosystems, there is also the issue of adaptation in human communities that depend on this changing marine environment. For example, communities that depend on services provided by coral reefs may need to locate alternative foundations for their economies. The fishery industry will need to adapt to changes in fish abundance, timing and location. Most of the things we would like to do to increase the adaptive capacity of marine ecosystems (e.g., reduce fishing pressure, reduce coastal pollution, preserve coastal wetlands) are things that would make sense to do even in

  16. Climate Change Adaptation Challenges and EO Business Opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Bansal, Rahul; Del Rey, Maria; Mohamed, Ebrahim; Ruiz, Paz; Signes, Marcos

    Climate change is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century, but is no longer a matter of just scientific concern. It encompasses economics, sociology, global politics as well as national and local politics, law, health and environmental security, etc. The challenge of facing the impacts of climate change is often framed in terms of two potential paths that civilization might take: mitigation and adaptation. On the one hand, mitigation involves reducing the magnitude of climate change itself and is composed of emissions reductions and geoengineering. On the other hand and by contrast, adaptation involves efforts to limit our vulnerability to climate change impacts through various measures. It refers to our ability to adjust ourselves to climate change -including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Therefore, we are now faced with a double challenge: next to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, we also need to adapt to the changing climate conditions. The use of satellites to monitor processes and trends at the global scale is essential in the context of climate change. Earth Observation has the potential to improve our predictive vision and to advance climate models. Space sciences and technologies constitute a significant issue in Education and Public Awareness of Science. Space missions face the probably largest scientific and industrial challenges of humanity. It is thus a fact that space drives innovation in the major breakthrough and cutting edge technological advances of mankind (techniques, processes, new products, … as well as in markets and business models). Technology and innovation is the basis of all space activities. Space agencies offer an entire range of space-related activities - from space science and environmental monitoring to industrial competitiveness and end-user services. More specifically, Earth Observation satellites have a unique

  17. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  18. Developing a Climate Change Boundary Organization: the Montana Adaptation Exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitlock, C. L.; Brooks, S.; Armstrong, T.; Bryan, B.

    2016-12-01

    Small-population large-area states like Montana are often challenged by a need to offer timely and relevant climate-change information that addresses diverse and widely dispersed stakeholder groups. In Montana, filling the gap between science and various types of decision-makers has motivated development of the first Montana Climate Assessment (MCA1), to be released in 2017 with a focus on climate-change impacts for agricultural, water and forestry sectors. To sustain and build on the MCA1 effort, we are also in the process of creating a Boundary Organization (defined by the National Academy of Sciences) called the Montana Adaptation Exchange (the Exchange); this entity will facilitate the flow of information across the boundaries between science, knowledge and implementation. In Montana, the Exchange brings scientists and practitioners together to seek solutions related to climate-change adaptation and other pressing environmental and social-economic challenges. The Montana Adaptation Exchange (1) is a collaborative partnership of members from the science and practitioner communities under a shared governance and participatory model; (2) presents research that has been vetted by the scientific community at large and represents the current state of knowledge; (3) allows for revision and expansion of assessments like the MCA; (4) communicates relevant, often technical, research and findings to a wide variety of resource managers and other stakeholders; (5) develops and maintains an extensive online database that organizes, regularly updates, and makes research data products readily available; and (6) offers an online portal and expert network of affiliated researchers and climate adaptation specialists to provide effective customer support. Boundary organizations, such as the Montana Adaptation Exchange, offer a scalable path to effectively move from "science to knowledge to action" while also allowing stakeholder needs to help inform research agendas.

  19. Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: Initial experiments using GCAM

    SciTech Connect

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2013-04-01

    Historically climate impacts research and climate mitigation research have been two separate and independent domains of inquiry. Climate mitigation research has investigated greenhouse gas emissions assuming that climate is unchanging. At the same time climate mitigation research has investigated the implications of climate change on the assumption that climate mitigation will proceed without affecting the degree of climate impacts or the ability of human and natural systems to adapt. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has largely been employed to study climate mitigation. Here we explore the development of capabilities to assess climate change impacts and adaptation within the GCAM model. These capabilities are being developed so as to be able to simultaneously reconcile the joint implications of climate change mitigation, impacts and adaptive potential. This is an important step forward in that it enables direct comparison between climate mitigation activities and climate impacts and the opportunity to understand interactions between the two.

  20. Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Thorpe, Roger S; Barlow, Axel; Malhotra, Anita; Surget-Groba, Yann

    2015-03-01

    Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot.

  1. Adapting to climate change or to stakeholders?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Camera, Corrado; Giannakis, Elias; Zoumides, Christos; Eliades, Marinos; Djuma, Hakan

    2015-04-01

    The Tamassos dam protects the Pedieos watershed in Cyprus against floods. The waterbody behind the dam serves as a new biodiversity and recreational resource. Water from the dam is also used for domestic water supply for nearby rural communities. However, this peaceful picture is threatened by climate change. Regional Climate Models indicate a drier and warmer Pedieos watershed in the near future (2020-2050). Interviews and meetings with a wide variety of stakeholders, for the development of a climate change adaptation plan for the Pedieos watershed, has created even more uncertainties than climate change. Environmental-minded stakeholders suggested to demolish the dam and to return the watershed to its natural state and the water to downstream ecosystems. Agricultural producers would also like to see the return of stream flows, such that they can divert or impound the water for groundwater recharge and subsequent irrigation. Community leaders similarly prefer stream flows for the recharge of the alluvial river aquifers, to allow them to abstract more groundwater for community water supply. Downstream authorities have different concerns. Here the usually dry river bed serves as the drainage of the urban agglomeration of the capital of Nicosia; and has been identified as an area of potentially significant flood risk for the European Flood Directive (2007/60/EC). The largest storm event in the upstream area in the recent past occurred in January 1989, before the construction of the dam. The runoff totalled 3.1 million m3 in one day and 4.4 million m3 in two days. Thus, part of the runoff would have flown straight through the spillway of the 2.8 million m3 dam reservoir. Average annual precipitation in the highly sloping, forested upstream area is 500 mm, while stream flows average 4.7 million m3/yr (1981-2001). This results in an average runoff coefficient of 19% for the 45-km2 upstream area. Past observations, climate change projections and hydrologic models

  2. Selecting downscaled climate projections for water resource impacts and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît

    2015-04-01

    variables - climate change signal in temporally and spatially integrated variables - has been carefully made with respect their relevance for water resource management. This work proposes a twofold assessment of this selection approach. First, a climate validation allows checking the selection response of more extreme climate variables critical for hydrological impacts as well as spatially distributed ones. Second, a hydrological validation allows checking the selection response of streamflow variables relevant for water resource management. Findings highlight that such validations may critically help preventing misinterpretations and misuses of impact model ensemble outputs for integrated adaptation purposes. This work is part of the GICC R2D2-2050 project (Risk, water Resources and sustainable Development of the Durance catchment in 2050) and the EU FP7 COMPLEX project (Knowledge Based Climate Mitigation Systems for a Low Carbon Economy). Christierson, B. v., Vidal, J.-P., & Wade, S. D. (2012) Using UKCP09 probabilistic climate information for UK water resource planning}. J. Hydrol., {424-425}, 48-67. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.12.020} Lafaysse, M.; Hingray, B.; Terray, L.; Mezghani, A. & Gailhard, J. (2014) Internal variability and model uncertainty components in future hydrometeorological projections: The Alpine Durance basin. Water Resour. Res., {50}, 3317-3341. doi: 10.1002/2013WR014897 Vidal, J.-P. & Hingray, B. (2014) A framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections for impact and adaptation studies. EGU2014-7851

  3. Impact of climate change adaptation strategies on winter wheat and cropping system performance across precipitation gradients in the inland Pacific Northwest, USA

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Ecological instability and low resource use efficiencies are concerns for the long-term productivity of conventional cereal monoculture systems, particularly those threatened by projected climate change. Crop intensification, diversification, reduced tillage, and variable N management are among str...

  4. Community-Based Adaptation To A Changing Climate

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This resource discusses how climate change is affecting community services, presents sample adaptation strategies, gives examples of successful community adaptation actions, and provides links to other key federal resources.

  5. Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

    PubMed

    Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

    2015-06-07

    Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  6. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    PubMed Central

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

  7. Assessment of the health impacts of climate change in Kiribati.

    PubMed

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-05-14

    Kiribati-a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation-is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

  8. Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

    2014-12-01

    Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

  9. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  10. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  11. Facilitating Adaptation to Changing Storm Surge Patterns in Western Alaska.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, K. A.; Holman, A.; Reynolds, J.

    2014-12-01

    Coastal regions of North America are already experiencing the effects of climate change and the consequences of new storm patterns and sea level rise. These climate change effects are even more pronounced in western Alaska where the loss of sea ice in early winter and spring are exposing the coast to powerful winter storms that are visibly altering the landscape, putting coastal communities at risk, and are likely impacting important coastal wildlife habitat in ways we don't yet understand. The Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative has funded a suite of projects to improve the information available to assist managers and communities to adapt changes in coastal storms and their impacts. Projects range from modeling tide, wave and storm surge patters, to ShoreZone and NHD mapping, to bathymetry mapping, community vulnerability assessments and risks to important wildlife habitat. This group of diverse projects has helped stimulate momentum among partners which will lead to better tools for communities to respond to dangerous storms. For example, the State of Alaska and NOAA are working together to compile a series of community-scale maps that utilize best-available datasets to streamline communication about forecasted storm surges, local elevations and potentially impacted infrastructure during storm events that may lead to coastal flooding.

  12. Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change

    PubMed Central

    Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P.; Alghabari, F.; Gooding, M.J.

    2014-01-01

    Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat. PMID:24882934

  13. Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change.

    PubMed

    Semenov, M A; Stratonovitch, P; Alghabari, F; Gooding, M J

    2014-05-01

    Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

  14. Public Health Climate Change Adaptation Planning Using Stakeholder Feedback.

    PubMed

    Eidson, Millicent; Clancy, Kathleen A; Birkhead, Guthrie S

    2016-01-01

    Public health climate change adaptation planning is an urgent priority requiring stakeholder feedback. The 10 Essential Public Health Services can be applied to adaptation activities. To develop a state health department climate and health adaptation plan as informed by stakeholder feedback. With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funding, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) implemented a 2010-2013 climate and health planning process, including 7 surveys on perceptions and adaptation priorities. New York State Department of Health program managers participated in initial (n = 41, denominator unknown) and follow-up (72.2%) needs assessments. Surveillance system information was collected from 98.1% of surveillance system managers. For adaptation prioritization surveys, participants included 75.4% of NYSDOH leaders; 60.3% of local health departments (LHDs); and 53.7% of other stakeholders representing environmental, governmental, health, community, policy, academic, and business organizations. Interviews were also completed with 38.9% of other stakeholders. In 2011 surveys, 34.1% of state health program directors believed that climate change would impact their program priorities. However, 84.6% of state health surveillance system managers provided ideas for using databases for climate and health monitoring/surveillance. In 2012 surveys, 46.5% of state health leaders agreed they had sufficient information about climate and health compared to 17.1% of LHDs (P = .0046) and 40.9% of other stakeholders (nonsignificant difference). Significantly fewer (P < .0001) LHDs (22.9%) were incorporating or considering incorporating climate and health into planning compared to state health leaders (55.8%) and other stakeholders (68.2%). Stakeholder groups agreed on the 4 highest priority adaptation categories including core public health activities such as surveillance, coordination/collaboration, education, and policy development. Feedback from diverse

  15. Empirically Estimating the Potential for Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western European Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, F. C.; Lobell, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This

  16. Empirically Estimating the Potential for Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western European Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mills, C. M.; Walsh, J. E.; Deser, C.

    2011-12-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This

  17. Beyond Reduction: Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Universities and Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Owen, Rochelle; Fisher, Erica; McKenzie, Kyle

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to outline a unique six-step process for the inclusion of climate change adaption goals and strategies in a University Climate Change Plan. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed-method approach was used to gather data on campus climate change vulnerabilities and adaption strategies. A literature review…

  18. Beyond Reduction: Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Universities and Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Owen, Rochelle; Fisher, Erica; McKenzie, Kyle

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to outline a unique six-step process for the inclusion of climate change adaption goals and strategies in a University Climate Change Plan. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed-method approach was used to gather data on campus climate change vulnerabilities and adaption strategies. A literature review…

  19. Development of adaptive IWRM options for climate change mitigation and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flügel, W.-A.

    2011-04-01

    Adaptive Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) options related to the impacts of climate change in the twinning basins of the Upper Danube River Basin (UDRB) and the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin (UBRB) are developed based on the results obtained in the different work packages of the BRAHMATWINN project. They have been described and discussed in Chapter 2 till Chapter 9 and the paper is referring to and is integrating these findings with respect to their application and interpretation for the development of adaptive IWRM options addressing impacts of climate change in river basins. The data and information related to the results discussed in Chapter 2 till 8 have been input to the RBIS as a central component of the IWRMS (Chapter 9). Meanwhile the UDRB has been analysed with respect to IWRM and climate change impacts by various projects, i.e. the GLOWA-Danube BMBF funded project (GLOWA Danube, 2009; Mauser and Ludwig, 2002) the UBRB has not been studied so far in a similar way as it was done in the BRAHMATWINN project. Therefore the IWRM option development is focussing on the UBRB but the methodology presented can be applied for the UDRB and other river basins as well. Data presented and analysed in this chapter have been elaborated by the BRAHMATWINN project partners and are published in the project deliverable reports available from the project homepage http://www.brahmatwinn.uni-jena.de/index.php?id=5311&L=2.

  20. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  1. A National Climate Change Adaptation Network for Protecting Water Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weaver, A.; Sauchyn, D.; Byrne, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    Water security and resource-dependent community-survival are being increasingly challenged as a consequence of climate change, and it is urgent that we plan now for the security of our water supplies which support our lives and livelihoods. However, the range of impacts of climate change on water availability, and the consequent environmental and human adaptations that are required, is so complex and serious that it will take the combined work of natural, health and social scientists working with industries and communities to solve them. Networks are needed that will identify crucial water issues under climate change at a range of scales in order to provide regionally-sensitive, solutions-oriented research and adaptation. We suggest national and supra-national water availability and community sustainability issues must be addressed by multidisciplinary research and adaptation networks. The work must be driven by a bottom-up research paradigm — science in the service of community and governance. We suggest that interdisciplinary teams of researchers, in partnership with community decision makers and local industries, are the best means to develop solutions as communities attempt to address future water demands, protect their homes from infrastructure damage, and meet their food, drinking water, and other essential resource requirements. The intention is to cover: the impact of climate change on Canadian natural resources, both marine and terrestrial; issues of long-term sustainability and resilience in human communities and the environments in which they are embedded; the making and moving of knowledge, be that between members of Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities, researchers of different disciplines, communities, industry, policymakers and the academy and the crucial involvement of the various orders of government in the response to water problems, under conditions of heightened uncertainty. Such an adaptation network must include a national

  2. The Changing Landscape of HIV Prevention in the United States: Health Department Experiences and Local Adaptations in Response to the National HIV/AIDS Strategy and High-Impact Prevention Approach.

    PubMed

    Fisher, Holly H; Essuon, Aba; Hoyte, Tamika; Shapatava, Ekaterine; Shelley, Gene; Rios, Aisha; Beane, Stephanie; Bourgeois, Stacey; Dunbar, Erica; Sapiano, Tobey

    2017-05-10

    HIV prevention has changed substantially in recent years due to changes in national priorities, biomedical advances, and health care reform. Starting in 2010, motivated by the National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) High-Impact Prevention (HIP), health departments realigned resources so that cost-effective, evidence-based interventions were targeted to groups at risk in areas most affected by HIV. This analysis describes how health departments in diverse settings were affected by NHAS and HIP. We conducted interviews and a consultation with health departments from 16 jurisdictions and interviewed CDC project officers who monitored programs in 5 of the jurisdictions. Participants were asked to describe changes since NHAS and HIP and how they adapted. We used inductive qualitative analysis to identify themes of change. Health departments improved their HIV prevention practices in different ways. They aligned jurisdictional plans with NHAS and HIP goals, increased local data use to monitor program performance, streamlined services, and strengthened partnerships to increase service delivery to persons at highest risk for infection/transmission. They shifted efforts to focus more on the needs of people with diagnosed HIV infection, increased HIV testing and routine HIV screening in clinical settings, raised provider and community awareness about preexposure prophylaxis, and used nontraditional strategies to successfully engage out-of-care people with diagnosed HIV infection. However, staff-, provider-, and data-related barriers that could slow scale-up of priority programs were consistently reported by participants, potentially impeding the ability to meet national goals. Findings suggest progress toward NHAS and HIP goals has been made in some jurisdictions but highlight the need to monitor prevention programs in different contexts to identify areas for improvement and increase the likelihood of national success

  3. Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.

    PubMed

    Gosling, Simon N; Hondula, David M; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2017-08-16

    Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.

  4. Marine reserves can mitigate and promote adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Callum M; O'Leary, Bethan C; McCauley, Douglas J; Cury, Philippe Maurice; Duarte, Carlos M; Lubchenco, Jane; Pauly, Daniel; Sáenz-Arroyo, Andrea; Sumaila, Ussif Rashid; Wilson, Rod W; Worm, Boris; Castilla, Juan Carlos

    2017-06-13

    Strong decreases in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the reduction trajectory resolved within the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, even these decreases will not avert serious stress and damage to life on Earth, and additional steps are needed to boost the resilience of ecosystems, safeguard their wildlife, and protect their capacity to supply vital goods and services. We discuss how well-managed marine reserves may help marine ecosystems and people adapt to five prominent impacts of climate change: acidification, sea-level rise, intensification of storms, shifts in species distribution, and decreased productivity and oxygen availability, as well as their cumulative effects. We explore the role of managed ecosystems in mitigating climate change by promoting carbon sequestration and storage and by buffering against uncertainty in management, environmental fluctuations, directional change, and extreme events. We highlight both strengths and limitations and conclude that marine reserves are a viable low-tech, cost-effective adaptation strategy that would yield multiple cobenefits from local to global scales, improving the outlook for the environment and people into the future.

  5. Adaptively managing wildlife for climate change: a fuzzy logic approach.

    PubMed

    Prato, Tony

    2011-07-01

    Wildlife managers have little or no control over climate change. However, they may be able to alleviate potential adverse impacts of future climate change by adaptively managing wildlife for climate change. In particular, wildlife managers can evaluate the efficacy of compensatory management actions (CMAs) in alleviating potential adverse impacts of future climate change on wildlife species using probability-based or fuzzy decision rules. Application of probability-based decision rules requires managers to specify certain probabilities, which is not possible when they are uncertain about the relationships between observed and true ecological conditions for a species. Under such uncertainty, the efficacy of CMAs can be evaluated and the best CMA selected using fuzzy decision rules. The latter are described and demonstrated using three constructed cases that assume: (1) a single ecological indicator (e.g., population size for a species) in a single time period; (2) multiple ecological indicators for a species in a single time period; and (3) multiple ecological conditions for a species in multiple time periods.

  6. Styles of Adaptation: The Impact of Frequency and Valence of Adaptation on Preventing Substance Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansen, William B.; Pankratz, Melinda M.; Dusenbury, Linda; Giles, Steven M.; Bishop, Dana C.; Albritton, Jordan; Albritton, Lauren P.; Strack, Joann

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To be effective, evidence-based programs should be delivered as prescribed. This suggests that adaptations that deviate from intervention goals may limit a program's effectiveness. This study aims to examine the impact that number and quality of adaptations have on substance use outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: The authors examined…

  7. Styles of Adaptation: The Impact of Frequency and Valence of Adaptation on Preventing Substance Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansen, William B.; Pankratz, Melinda M.; Dusenbury, Linda; Giles, Steven M.; Bishop, Dana C.; Albritton, Jordan; Albritton, Lauren P.; Strack, Joann

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To be effective, evidence-based programs should be delivered as prescribed. This suggests that adaptations that deviate from intervention goals may limit a program's effectiveness. This study aims to examine the impact that number and quality of adaptations have on substance use outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: The authors examined…

  8. Weather Extremes, Climate Change and Adaptive Governance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veland, S.; Lynch, A. H.

    2014-12-01

    Human societies have become a geologic agent of change, and with this is an increasing awareness of the environment risks that confront human activities and values. More frequent and extreme hydroclimate events, anomalous tropical cyclone seasons, heat waves and droughts have all been documented, and many rigorously attributed to fossil fuel emissions (e.g. DeGaetano 2009; Hoyos et al. 2006). These extremes, however, do not register themselves in the abstract - they occur in particular places, affecting particular populations and ecosystems (Turner et al. 2003). This can be considered to present a policy window to decrease vulnerability and enhance emergency management. However, the asymmetrical character of these events may lead some to treat remote areas or disenfranchised populations as capable of absorbing the environmental damage attributable to the collective behavior of those residing in wealthy, populous, industrialized societies (Young 1989). Sound policies for adaptation to changing extremes must take into account the multiple interests and resource constraints for the populations affected and their broader contexts. Minimizing vulnerability to weather extremes is only one of many interests in human societies, and as noted, this interest competes with the others for limited time, attention, funds and other resources. Progress in reducing vulnerability also depends on policy that integrates the best available local and scientific knowledge and experience elsewhere. This improves the chance that each policy will succeed, but there are no guarantees. Each policy must be recognized as a matter of trial and error to some extent; surprises are inevitable. Thus each policy should be designed to fail gracefully if it fails, to learn from the experience, and to leave resources sufficient to implement the lessons learned. Overall policy processes must be quasi-evolutionary, avoiding replication without modification of failed policies and building on the successes

  9. Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies.

    PubMed

    Bannayan, Mohammad; Paymard, Parisa; Ashraf, Batool

    2016-10-01

    Climate change can affect the productivity and geographic distribution of crops. Therefore, evaluation of adaptive management options is crucial in dealing with negative impacts of climate change. The objectives of this study were to simulate the impacts of climate change on maize production in the north-east of Iran. Moreover, vulnerability index which indicated that how much of the crop yield loss is related to the drought was computed for each location to identify where adaptation and mitigation strategies are effective. Different sowing dates were also applied as an adaptation approach to decrease the negative impacts of climate change in study area. The results showed that the maize yield would decline during the 21st century from -2.6% to -82% at all study locations in comparison with the baseline. The result of vulnerability index also indicated that using the adaptation strategies could be effective in all of the study areas. Using different sowing dates as an adaptation approach showed that delaying the sowing date will be advantageous in order to obtain higher yield in all study locations in future. This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

  10. Climate change concerns, weather expectations, and willingness to adapt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klima, K.; Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Lefevre, C.; Taylor, A.

    2016-12-01

    Adaptation will become necessary as climate change causes more extreme weather worldwide. People with lower climate change concerns may be less willing to act. Yet, people who dismiss climate change may still perceive that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent or more intense. It is possible that weather perceptions and change concerns are partially independent constructs, even if they do inform each other. In this research, we ask: 1) How likely do people think that wet, windy, and hot weather events will become worse by 2050? 2) How willing are people to implement climate change adaptation? and 3) Is willingness to adapt to climate change motivated by perceptions of extreme weather, independent of concerns about climate change? To answer these questions, we surveyed two areas with different political views on climate change and extreme weather events, the United States (474 participants) and the United Kingdom (607 participants). We find expectations for extreme weather and willingness to adapt vary between countries; US residents expect hot weather to worsen the most, and for UK residents the least. Willingness to adapt varies as well. Yet, for each type of weather, weather expectations and climate change concerns independently predict willingness to adapt, in the US and the UK. Our findings have implications for communications about climate change adaptation. Willingness to prepare for extreme weather may be higher among individuals with low climate change concerns if the term `climate change' is omitted from communications.

  11. Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change.

    PubMed

    MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Cinner, Joshua E; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Loring, Philip A; Jennings, Simon; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Fisk, Aaron T; McClanahan, Tim R

    2010-11-27

    Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.

  12. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    SciTech Connect

    Dewart, Jean Marie

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  13. Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

    PubMed Central

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services. PMID:23991125

  14. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  15. Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008).

    PubMed

    Jude, S R; Drew, G H; Pollard, S J T; Rocks, S A; Jenkinson, K; Lamb, R

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. An Evidence-Based Public Health Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E.; Raab, Kristin K.; Luber, George

    2014-01-01

    Background: Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Objectives: Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. Methods: We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. Discussion: A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. Conclusions: The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders. Citation: Hess JJ, Eidson M, Tlumak JE, Raab KK, Luber G. 2014. An evidence-based public

  17. Estimating the Importance of Private Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture: A Review of Empirical Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, F.; Burke, M.

    2015-12-01

    A wide range of studies using a variety of methods strongly suggest that climate change will have a negative impact on agricultural production in many areas. Farmers though should be able to learn about a changing climate and to adjust what they grow and how they grow it in order to reduce these negative impacts. However, it remains unclear how effective these private (autonomous) adaptations will be, or how quickly they will be adopted. Constraining the uncertainty on this adaptation is important for understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Here we review a number of empirical methods that have been proposed for understanding the rate and effectiveness of private adaptation to climate change. We compare these methods using data on agricultural yields in the United States and western Europe.

  18. Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

  19. Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change: The Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and other key stakeholders in the Blue Mountains region of northeastern Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

  20. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-12-01

    Ocean and Bay of Bengal reach Myanmar’s vast coastline, and as shrinking mountain glaciers in the Himalayas affect water supplies of the Irrawaddy...century. Finally, as a byproduct of warming, glacier size, snow cover, and Arctic sea ice will continue to decrease throughout the century in all...heat energy, they naturally expand, contributing to rising ocean levels. The second primary factor is melting ice sheets and glaciers . As the

  1. Growing assisted migration: Synthesis of a climate change adaptation strategy

    Treesearch

    Mary I. Williams; R. Kasten Dumroese

    2013-01-01

    Assisted migration may be necessary as a climate change adaptation strategy for native plant species that are less adaptive or mobile. Moving plants has been practiced a long time in human history, but movement of species in response to climate change is a new context. First proposed in 1985, assisted migration has gained attention since 2007 as a strategy to prevent...

  2. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans

    PubMed Central

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S.

    2016-01-01

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago’s are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others. PMID:27110801

  3. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

    PubMed

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

    2016-04-21

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

  4. Adapting Dam and Reservoir Design and Operations to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, René; Braun, Marco; Chaumont, Diane

    2013-04-01

    In order to identify the potential initiatives that the dam, reservoir and water resources systems owners and operators may undertake to cope with climate change issues, it is essential to determine the current state of knowledge of their impacts on hydrological variables at regional and local scales. Future climate scenarios derived from climate model simulations can be combined with operational hydrological modeling tools and historical observations to evaluate realistic pathways of future hydrological conditions for specific drainage basins. In the case of hydropower production those changes in hydrological conditions may have significant economic impacts. For over a decade the state owned hydropower producer Hydro Québec has been exploring the physical impacts on their watersheds by relying on climate services in collaboration with Ouranos, a consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change. Previous climate change impact analysis had been including different sources of climate simulation data, explored different post-processing approaches and used hydrological impact models. At a new stage of this collaboration the operational management of Hydro Quebec aspired to carry out a cost-benefit analysis of considering climate change in the refactoring of hydro-power installations. In the process of the project not only a set of scenarios of future runoff regimes had to be defined to support long term planning decisions of a dam and reservoir operator, but also the significance of uncertainties needed to be communicated and made understood. We provide insight into a case study that took some unexpected turns and leaps by bringing together climate scientists, hydrologists and hydro-power operation managers. The study includes the selection of appropriate climate scenarios, the correction of biases, the application of hydrological models and the assessment of uncertainties. However, it turned out that communicating the science properly and

  5. An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress

    PubMed Central

    Sherwood, Steven C.; Huber, Matthew

    2010-01-01

    Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature TW, is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. TW never exceeds 31 °C. Any exceedence of 35 °C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11–12 °C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 °C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record. PMID:20439769

  6. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  7. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Canadian Jurisdictions

    PubMed Central

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Ford, James D.; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Araos, Malcolm; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change poses numerous risks to the health of Canadians. Extreme weather events, poor air quality, and food insecurity in northern regions are likely to increase along with the increasing incidence and range of infectious diseases. In this study we identify and characterize Canadian federal, provincial, territorial and municipal adaptation to these health risks based on publically available information. Federal health adaptation initiatives emphasize capacity building and gathering information to address general health, infectious disease and heat-related risks. Provincial and territorial adaptation is varied. Quebec is a leader in climate change adaptation, having a notably higher number of adaptation initiatives reported, addressing almost all risks posed by climate change in the province, and having implemented various adaptation types. Meanwhile, all other Canadian provinces and territories are in the early stages of health adaptation. Based on publically available information, reported adaptation also varies greatly by municipality. The six sampled Canadian regional health authorities (or equivalent) are not reporting any adaptation initiatives. We also find little relationship between the number of initiatives reported in the six sampled municipalities and their provinces, suggesting that municipalities are adapting (or not adapting) autonomously. PMID:25588156

  8. Farm Level Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of Farmer's in the Ethiopian Highlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-07-01

    In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.

  9. Farm level adaptation to climate change: the case of farmer's in the Ethiopian highlands.

    PubMed

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-07-01

    In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.

  10. Adapting Scotland’s forests to climate change using an action expiration chart

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petr, M.; Boerboom, L. G. J.; Ray, D.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-10-01

    The inherent uncertainty of climate change impacts is one of the main challenges for adaptation in environmental management. The lack of knowledge about climate impacts on ecosystem services at high spatial and temporal resolution limits when and what adaptation measures should be taken. We addressed these limits by assessing four ecosystem services—forest production, tree growth, sequestered carbon, and tourism potential—under drought or climate change. To support adaptation, we adapted the existing concept of ‘dynamic adaptive policy pathways’ for forest management by developing an action expiration chart, which helps to define expiry dates for forestry actions using ecosystem services delivery thresholds. We assessed services for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak on the National Forest Estate in Scotland for the next 80 years using probabilistic climate change data from the UKCP09 weather generator. Findings showed that drought would have an overall long-term negative impact on the provision of three services with a decrease up to 41%, whereas climate change has a positive impact on tourism potential with up to five times higher frequency of good climate conditions during summer months. Furthermore, the results highlighted when forestry actions, mainly in the lowlands, will reach their environmental limits during the next 80 years. Our findings reduce knowledge uncertainty and highlight when and where adaptation should be implemented to ensure the provision of future forest ecosystem services in Scotland.

  11. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J. J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.

    2015-10-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management; (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation.

  12. Extratropical Transitions in Atlantic Canada: Impacts and Adaptive Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masson, Athena; Catto, Norm

    2013-04-01

    . Storm surge damage occurred along the north shore of the Bonavista Peninsula. Similar effects, differing only in the size of the affected areas, have resulted from several extratropical transitions which have impacted Atlantic Canada since July 1989. Extratropical transition "Leslie" impacted Newfoundland on 10-11 September 2012. Although the area affected was comparable to "Igor", wind velocities and rainfall totals were less, fortunately limiting damage. Preparation, advance warning to the population, proaction, and response efforts all showed significant improvement, however, indicating that the experience gained from coping with "Igor" had been successfully applied in adaptation to "Leslie". Extratropical transitions pose a significantly different set of challenges for adaptation in comparison to purely tropical hurricanes, and responses and adaptation strategies should be tailored to address these specific events. Calculating the frequency, magnitude and intensity of potential shifts is important for accurate forecasting and public awareness, safety management, preparedness, and adaptation. Available data indicate an increase in extratropical frequency and severity in Atlantic Canada since 1991, but there are difficulties in establishing the extent and nature of transition for previous storm events. A cautionary policy would assume no significant changes in extratropical transition frequency for Atlantic Canada, but would also acknowledge that large events remain probable.

  13. Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paukert, Craig; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

  14. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries.

    PubMed

    Austin, Stephanie E; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D

    2016-09-07

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will-or should-include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation-cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning-and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning.

  15. Civil society organizations and adaptation to the health effects of climate change in Canada.

    PubMed

    Poutiainen, C; Berrang-Ford, L; Ford, J; Heymann, J

    2013-05-01

    Adaptation will be necessary to cope with the impacts of climate change on the health of Canadians. Civil society organizations (CSOs) have an important role in health adaptation, but it is unknown what actions they are undertaking. To identify and examine what adaptations are being developed by CSOs to adapt to the health effects of climate change based on a systematic review of the activities of 190 organizations and 1196 reported adaptation actions. There were six key findings: (1) health adaptation actions are predominantly led by environmental CSOs; (2) most actions are occurring at national and regional levels; (3) food and/or water contamination and air quality are dominant climate change stimuli for action; (4) responses predominantly reflect awareness and research activities, with limited evidence of substantive intervention; (5) consideration of vulnerable groups is limited; and (6) climate change is usually considered alongside other factors, if at all. The results indicate a deficit in terms of what needs to be done for health adaptation and what is being done; part of a broader adaptation deficit in Canada. Coordinated adaptation planning at federal and provincial level is needed, involving collaboration between CSOs and public health bodies. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change in the City of Chicago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuebbles, D. J.; Hayhoe, K.; Coffee, J.; McGraw, J.; Parzen, J.

    2008-12-01

    Under Mayor Richard M. Daley's leadership, the City of Chicago initiated the Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP) to better understand local implications of global climate change in both higher and lower emissions scenarios, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and implement programs to build future climate change resilience. The City approached this work not only as a way to make Chicago more adaptable in the future, but also to improve Chicago's quality of life today. The Chicago Climate Action Plan adopted stresses the importance of both reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Chicago and preparing for climate changes that may be unavoidable. Building off of the City's significant environmental programs and projects, and based on our analyses of the climate effects and impacts that improved the scientific understanding of future climate change impacts on Chicago, the City then developed a set of climate change adaptation strategies, resulting in the City of Chicago Climate Change Adaptation Summary. This document includes prioritization of climate change adaptations based on relative risk as well as framework strategies for those tactics categorized as "must do/early action." In early 2008, The Mayor's Office asked five Commissioners from its Green Steering Committee to chair adaptation work groups including: extreme heat; extreme precipitation; buildings, infrastructure and equipment; ecosystems; and leadership, planning and communications. Working with staff from relevant departments, sister agencies and other stakeholders, these work groups developed 39 basic adaptation work plans, including plans for enhancing the City's existing projects and programs that relate to climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation work will be on-going in City Departments under the Mayor's Office leadership. The City intends to continually monitor and improve its response to climate change, resulting in an improved quality of life for Chicago residents.

  17. An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation.

    PubMed

    Hess, Jeremy J; Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E; Raab, Kristin K; Luber, George

    2014-11-01

    Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders.

  18. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  19. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  20. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries

    PubMed Central

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will—or should—include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation—cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning—and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning. PMID:27618074

  1. A Meta-Analysis of Urban Climate Change Adaptation ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in developing frameworks for adaptation planning and identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empirical work evaluating urban adaptation planning processes has been relatively piecemeal. Existing assessments of current experience with urban adaptation provide necessarily broad generalizations based on the available peer-reviewed literature. This paper uses a meta-analysis of U.S. cities’ current experience with urban adaptation planning drawing from 54 sources that include peer-reviewed literature, government reports, white papers, and reports published by non-governmental organizations. The analysis specifically evaluates the institutional support structures being developed for urban climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that adaptation planning is driven by a desire to reduce vulnerability and often catalyzes new collaborations and coordination mechanisms in urban governance. As a result, building capacity for urban climate change adaptation planning requires a focus not only on city governments themselves but also on the complex horizontal and vertical networks that have arisen around such efforts. Existing adaptation planning often lacks attention to equity issues, social vulnerability, and the influence of non-climatic factors on vulnerability. Engaging city govern

  2. A Meta-Analysis of Urban Climate Change Adaptation ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in developing frameworks for adaptation planning and identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empirical work evaluating urban adaptation planning processes has been relatively piecemeal. Existing assessments of current experience with urban adaptation provide necessarily broad generalizations based on the available peer-reviewed literature. This paper uses a meta-analysis of U.S. cities’ current experience with urban adaptation planning drawing from 54 sources that include peer-reviewed literature, government reports, white papers, and reports published by non-governmental organizations. The analysis specifically evaluates the institutional support structures being developed for urban climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that adaptation planning is driven by a desire to reduce vulnerability and often catalyzes new collaborations and coordination mechanisms in urban governance. As a result, building capacity for urban climate change adaptation planning requires a focus not only on city governments themselves but also on the complex horizontal and vertical networks that have arisen around such efforts. Existing adaptation planning often lacks attention to equity issues, social vulnerability, and the influence of non-climatic factors on vulnerability. Engaging city govern

  3. Guidelines for the adaptation to floods in changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata J.

    2017-06-01

    A decrease of flood damages in the future requires not only adaptation to flood caused by present day climate, but also climate change effects on floods should be taken into account. The paper illustrates the need to take into account changing climate conditions in flood adaptation strategies and to apply in practice the concept of integrated water resource management (IWRM). IWRM is based on a number of policy instruments, economic instruments, political signals, and also, on the effects of climate change on floods and collaboration across national, regional and local administrative units. The guidelines for a country adaptation to floods in a changing climate are outlined. A comparison of the adaptive capacities in Poland and Norway is used to illustrate the need for the implementation of proposed guidelines to assure flood risk management under climate change in a sustainable way.

  4. Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change on Inuit Health

    PubMed Central

    Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks—one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context. PMID:24754615

  5. Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    PubMed Central

    Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

  6. Adapting to the effects of climate change on Inuit health.

    PubMed

    Ford, James D; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

    2014-06-01

    Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks-one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context.

  7. Environmental change drives accelerated adaptation through stimulated copy number variation.

    PubMed

    Hull, Ryan M; Cruz, Cristina; Jack, Carmen V; Houseley, Jonathan

    2017-06-01

    Copy number variation (CNV) is rife in eukaryotic genomes and has been implicated in many human disorders, particularly cancer, in which CNV promotes both tumorigenesis and chemotherapy resistance. CNVs are considered random mutations but often arise through replication defects; transcription can interfere with replication fork progression and stability, leading to increased mutation rates at highly transcribed loci. Here we investigate whether inducible promoters can stimulate CNV to yield reproducible, environment-specific genetic changes. We propose a general mechanism for environmentally-stimulated CNV and validate this mechanism for the emergence of copper resistance in budding yeast. By analysing a large cohort of individual cells, we directly demonstrate that CNV of the copper-resistance gene CUP1 is stimulated by environmental copper. CNV stimulation accelerates the formation of novel alleles conferring enhanced copper resistance, such that copper exposure actively drives adaptation to copper-rich environments. Furthermore, quantification of CNV in individual cells reveals remarkable allele selectivity in the rate at which specific environments stimulate CNV. We define the key mechanistic elements underlying this selectivity, demonstrating that CNV is regulated by both promoter activity and acetylation of histone H3 lysine 56 (H3K56ac) and that H3K56ac is required for CUP1 CNV and efficient copper adaptation. Stimulated CNV is not limited to high-copy CUP1 repeat arrays, as we find that H3K56ac also regulates CNV in 3 copy arrays of CUP1 or SFA1 genes. The impact of transcription on DNA damage is well understood, but our research reveals that this apparently problematic association forms a pathway by which mutations can be directed to particular loci in particular environments and furthermore that this mutagenic process can be regulated through histone acetylation. Stimulated CNV therefore represents an unanticipated and remarkably controllable pathway

  8. Environmental change drives accelerated adaptation through stimulated copy number variation

    PubMed Central

    Hull, Ryan M.; Cruz, Cristina; Jack, Carmen V.

    2017-01-01

    Copy number variation (CNV) is rife in eukaryotic genomes and has been implicated in many human disorders, particularly cancer, in which CNV promotes both tumorigenesis and chemotherapy resistance. CNVs are considered random mutations but often arise through replication defects; transcription can interfere with replication fork progression and stability, leading to increased mutation rates at highly transcribed loci. Here we investigate whether inducible promoters can stimulate CNV to yield reproducible, environment-specific genetic changes. We propose a general mechanism for environmentally-stimulated CNV and validate this mechanism for the emergence of copper resistance in budding yeast. By analysing a large cohort of individual cells, we directly demonstrate that CNV of the copper-resistance gene CUP1 is stimulated by environmental copper. CNV stimulation accelerates the formation of novel alleles conferring enhanced copper resistance, such that copper exposure actively drives adaptation to copper-rich environments. Furthermore, quantification of CNV in individual cells reveals remarkable allele selectivity in the rate at which specific environments stimulate CNV. We define the key mechanistic elements underlying this selectivity, demonstrating that CNV is regulated by both promoter activity and acetylation of histone H3 lysine 56 (H3K56ac) and that H3K56ac is required for CUP1 CNV and efficient copper adaptation. Stimulated CNV is not limited to high-copy CUP1 repeat arrays, as we find that H3K56ac also regulates CNV in 3 copy arrays of CUP1 or SFA1 genes. The impact of transcription on DNA damage is well understood, but our research reveals that this apparently problematic association forms a pathway by which mutations can be directed to particular loci in particular environments and furthermore that this mutagenic process can be regulated through histone acetylation. Stimulated CNV therefore represents an unanticipated and remarkably controllable pathway

  9. Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs

  10. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-03-01

    Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  11. Modeling Two Types of Adaptation to Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-live...

  12. Modeling Two Types of Adaptation to Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-live...

  13. Complex Adaptive Schools: Educational Leadership and School Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kershner, Brad; McQuillan, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    This paper utilizes the theoretical framework of complexity theory to compare and contrast leadership and educational change in two urban schools. Drawing on the notion of a complex adaptive system--an interdependent network of interacting elements that learns and evolves in adapting to an ever-shifting context--our case studies seek to reveal the…

  14. The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

    2013-12-01

    Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand

  15. Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by fish farmers in Epe Local Government Area of Lagos State, Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Arimi, Kayode S

    2014-05-01

    Undesirable impacts of climate change have been a common occurrence that has made fish farmers in developing countries adopt some climate-change adaptation strategies. However, little is known about determinants of climate-change adaptation strategies used by these fish farmers. This study, therefore, articulates novelties on adaptation to climate change, as well ascertains determinants of adaptation strategies used by fish farmers in Epe, Lagos State, Nigeria. Climate change adaptation strategies mostly used by fish farmers include frequent seeking for early warning information about climate change (76.7%) and avoidance of areas susceptible to flooding (60.0%). Climate-change adaptation strategies used by fish farmers were significantly influenced by access to early warning information (β = 7.21), knowledge of farmers about climate change adaptation strategies (β = 8.86), access to capital (β = 28.25), and participation in workshop and conferences (β = 37.19) but were reduced by number of fish stocking (β = -2.06). The adaptation strategies used by fish farmers were autonomous and mostly determined by the access to credit facilities and information. Development policy should focus on carbon capture and storage technology in order to reduce adverse impacts of climate change, as well as making early warning information on climate change available to fish farmers. These will enhance adaptation to climate change. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

  16. Ecosystem productivity and the impact of climate change

    Treesearch

    Linda A. Joyce; Martha Nungesser

    2000-01-01

    Earlier analyses of the supply and demand of timber assumed the continuation of historical climate and thus, did not explicitly incorporate factors such as temperature or precipitation into the projections of timber growth. Forests are adapted to local climates and changes in these climates are likely to impact future forest growth and timber outputs. Within the...

  17. Water System Adaptation to Hydrological Changes: Module 1, Introduction to Water System Adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Contemporary water management requires resilience, the ability to meet ever increasing water needs, and capacity to adapt to abrupt or transient changes in water quality and availability. For this purpose, effective adaptation to extreme hydrological events (e.g. intense storms, ...

  18. Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

    2008-12-01

    We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for

  19. Integrated watershed analysis: adapting to changing times

    Treesearch

    Gordon H. Reeves

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers are increasingly required to conduct integrated analyses of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems before undertaking any activities. Th ere are a number of research studies on the impacts of management actions on these ecosystems, as well as a growing body of knowledge about ecological processes that aff ect them, particularly aquatic ecosystems, which...

  20. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Treesearch

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  1. Adapting organizational structure to a changing environment.

    PubMed

    Arrildt, W D

    1986-01-01

    The design of a successful organization is related to its environment, according to Mr. Arrildt. He traces the organizational changes made by a large, complex teaching institution, The Johns Hopkins Hospital, in response to environmental change, and analyzes the place of radiology in the new structure.

  2. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

    PubMed

    Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

    2015-11-13

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions.

  3. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allison, Edward H.; Bassett, Hannah R.

    2015-11-01

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society’s diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions.

  4. Adaptation to climate change in agriculture in Bangladesh: The role of formal institutions.

    PubMed

    Islam, Md Torikul; Nursey-Bray, Melissa

    2017-09-15

    Bangladesh is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and adaptation is emerging as a key policy response. Place based programs that build adaptive capacity are needed. This paper explores the effectiveness of formal institutions in climate change adaptation for agriculture from the perspectives of farmers and institutional communities of practice within two drought-prone areas in Bangladesh. Our findings show that formal institutions via their communities of practice play an important role in building place based capacity for mitigation and adaptation strategies in agriculture. Over-emphasis on technology, lack of acknowledgement of cultural factors and a failure of institutional communities of practice to mediate and create linkages with informal institutional communities of practice remain barriers. We argue that in order for formal institutions to play an ongoing and crucial role in building adaptive agriculture in Bangladesh, they must incorporate cultural mechanisms and build partnerships with more community based informal institutions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Estimating farmers' willingness to pay for climate change adaptation: the case of the Malaysian agricultural sector.

    PubMed

    Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Junsheng, Ha; Akhtar, Rulia; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Kari, Fatimah Binti

    2015-02-01

    This paper estimates Malaysian farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme for addressing climate issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. We used the contingent valuation method (CVM) for a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for a planned adaptation programme by ascertaining the value attached to address climatic issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. Structured questionnaires were distributed among the sampled farmers. The study found that 74 % of respondents were willing to pay for a planned adaptation programme and that several socioeconomic and motivation factors have greater influence on their WTP. This paper clearly specifies the steps needed for all institutional bodies to better address issues in climate change. The outcomes of this paper will support policy makers to better design an efficient adaptation framework for adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change.

  6. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

  7. Health risks of climate change: an assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies.

    PubMed

    Wardekker, J Arjan; de Jong, Arie; van Bree, Leendert; Turkenburg, Wim C; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P

    2012-09-19

    Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system's and society's capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health

  8. Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Rovin, Kimberly; Hardee, Karen; Kidanu, Aklilu

    2013-09-01

    Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary family planning and reproductive health into local and national climate change adaptation plans.

  9. Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.

    2014-02-01

    The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

  10. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-05-01

    There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment in Odense, Denmark, and find that the uncertainty on the climate change impact appears to have the least influence on the net present value of the studied adaptation measures-. This does not imply that the climate change impact is not important, but that the uncertainties are not dominating when deciding on action or in-action. We then consider the uncertainty related to choosing between adaptation options given that a decision of action has been taken. In this case the major part of the

  11. Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change.

    PubMed

    Bocedi, Greta; Atkins, Katherine E; Liao, Jishan; Henry, Roslyn C; Travis, Justin M J; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2013-09-01

    Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

  12. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Challinor, A. J.; Watson, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Howden, S. M.; Smith, D. R.; Chhetri, N.

    2014-04-01

    Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7-15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.

  13. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-12-01

    Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  14. Savings in locomotor adaptation explained by changes in learning parameters following initial adaptation.

    PubMed

    Mawase, Firas; Shmuelof, Lior; Bar-Haim, Simona; Karniel, Amir

    2014-04-01

    Faster relearning of an external perturbation, savings, offers a behavioral linkage between motor learning and memory. To explain savings effects in reaching adaptation experiments, recent models suggested the existence of multiple learning components, each shows different learning and forgetting properties that may change following initial learning. Nevertheless, the existence of these components in rhythmic movements with other effectors, such as during locomotor adaptation, has not yet been studied. Here, we study savings in locomotor adaptation in two experiments; in the first, subjects adapted to speed perturbations during walking on a split-belt treadmill, briefly adapted to a counter-perturbation and then readapted. In a second experiment, subjects readapted after a prolonged period of washout of initial adaptation. In both experiments we find clear evidence for increased learning rates (savings) during readaptation. We show that the basic error-based multiple timescales linear state space model is not sufficient to explain savings during locomotor adaptation. Instead, we show that locomotor adaptation leads to changes in learning parameters, so that learning rates are faster during readaptation. Interestingly, we find an intersubject correlation between the slow learning component in initial adaptation and the fast learning component in the readaptation phase, suggesting an underlying mechanism for savings. Together, these findings suggest that savings in locomotion and in reaching may share common computational and neuronal mechanisms; both are driven by the slow learning component and are likely to depend on cortical plasticity.

  15. Iowa Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Report

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The findings of a pilot project to work with stakeholders and governments in Iowa to identify barriers to and incentives for considering regional effects of climate change in hazard mitigation planning and other community planning processes.

  16. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  17. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  18. Climate change adaptation and Integrated Water Resource Management in the water sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludwig, Fulco; van Slobbe, Erik; Cofino, Wim

    2014-10-01

    Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) was introduced in 1980s to better optimise water uses between different water demanding sectors. However, since it was introduced water systems have become more complicated due to changes in the global water cycle as a result of climate change. The realization that climate change will have a significant impact on water availability and flood risks has driven research and policy making on adaptation. This paper discusses the main similarities and differences between climate change adaptation and IWRM. The main difference between the two is the focus on current and historic issues of IWRM compared to the (long-term) future focus of adaptation. One of the main problems of implementing climate change adaptation is the large uncertainties in future projections. Two completely different approaches to adaptation have been developed in response to these large uncertainties. A top-down approach based on large scale biophysical impacts analyses focussing on quantifying and minimizing uncertainty by using a large range of scenarios and different climate and impact models. The main problem with this approach is the propagation of uncertainties within the modelling chain. The opposite is the bottom up approach which basically ignores uncertainty. It focusses on reducing vulnerabilities, often at local scale, by developing resilient water systems. Both these approaches however are unsuitable for integrating into water management. The bottom up approach focuses too much on socio-economic vulnerability and too little on developing (technical) solutions. The top-down approach often results in an “explosion” of uncertainty and therefore complicates decision making. A more promising direction of adaptation would be a risk based approach. Future research should further develop and test an approach which starts with developing adaptation strategies based on current and future risks. These strategies should then be evaluated using a range

  19. Adapting to climate change despite scientific uncertainty: A case study of coastal protection from sea-level rise in Kiribati

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, S. D.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change adaptation is an increasing focus of international aid. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help developing countries, like the low-lying island nation of Kiribati, respond to the impacts of climate change. These emerging adaptation efforts must proceed despite the large and partially irreducible scientific uncertainty about the magnitude of those future climate impacts. In this study, we use the example of efforts to adapt to sea-level rise in Kiribati to document the challenges facing such internationally-funded climate change adaptation projects given the scientific uncertainty about climate impacts. Drawing on field and document research, we describe the scientific uncertainty about projected sea-level rise in Tarawa, the capital of Kiribati, how that uncertainty can create trade-offs between adaptation measures, and the social, political and economic context in which adaptation decisions must be made. The analysis shows there is no 'silver bullet' adaptation strategy in countries like Kiribati, given the long-term scientific uncertainty about sea-level rise and the environment of climate change aid. The existence of irreducible scientific uncertainty does not preclude effective climate change adaptation, but instead requires adaptation programs that embrace multiple strategies and planning horizons, and continually build on and re-adjust previous investments. This work highlights the importance of sustained international climate change financing, as proposed in UNFCCC negotiations.

  20. Evolutionary adaptation of marine zooplankton to global change.

    PubMed

    Dam, Hans G

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the response of the biota to global change remains a formidable endeavor. Zooplankton face challenges related to global warming, ocean acidification, the proliferation of toxic algal blooms, and increasing pollution, eutrophication, and hypoxia. They can respond to these changes by phenotypic plasticity or genetic adaptation. Using the concept of the evolution of reaction norms, I address how adaptive responses can be unequivocally discerned from phenotypic plasticity. To date, relatively few zooplankton studies have been designed for such a purpose. As case studies, I review the evidence for zooplankton adaptation to toxic algal blooms, hypoxia, and climate change. Predicting the response of zooplankton to global change requires new information to determine (a) the trade-offs and costs of adaptation, (b) the rates of evolution versus environmental change, (c) the consequences of adaptation to stochastic or cyclic (toxic algal blooms, coastal hypoxia) versus directional (temperature, acidification, open ocean hypoxia) environmental change, and (d) the interaction of selective pressures, and evolutionary and ecological processes, in promoting or hindering adaptation.

  1. Explaining and overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eisenack, Klaus; Moser, Susanne C.; Hoffmann, Esther; Klein, Richard J. T.; Oberlack, Christoph; Pechan, Anna; Rotter, Maja; Termeer, Catrien J. A. M.

    2014-10-01

    The concept of barriers is increasingly used to describe the obstacles that hinder the planning and implementation of climate change adaptation. The growing literature on barriers to adaptation reveals not only commonly reported barriers, but also conflicting evidence, and few explanations of why barriers exist and change. There is thus a need for research that focuses on the interdependencies between barriers and considers the dynamic ways in which barriers develop and persist. Such research, which would be actor-centred and comparative, would help to explain barriers to adaptation and provide insights into how to overcome them.

  2. Implementing Culture Change in Nursing Homes: An Adaptive Leadership Framework.

    PubMed

    Corazzini, Kirsten; Twersky, Jack; White, Heidi K; Buhr, Gwendolen T; McConnell, Eleanor S; Weiner, Madeline; Colón-Emeric, Cathleen S

    2015-08-01

    To describe key adaptive challenges and leadership behaviors to implement culture change for person-directed care. The study design was a qualitative, observational study of nursing home staff perceptions of the implementation of culture change in each of 3 nursing homes. We conducted 7 focus groups of licensed and unlicensed nursing staff, medical care providers, and administrators. Questions explored perceptions of facilitators and barriers to culture change. Using a template organizing style of analysis with immersion/crystallization, themes of barriers and facilitators were coded for adaptive challenges and leadership. Six key themes emerged, including relationships, standards and expectations, motivation and vision, workload, respect of personhood, and physical environment. Within each theme, participants identified barriers that were adaptive challenges and facilitators that were examples of adaptive leadership. Commonly identified challenges were how to provide person-directed care in the context of extant rules or policies or how to develop staff motivated to provide person-directed care. Implementing culture change requires the recognition of adaptive challenges for which there are no technical solutions, but which require reframing of norms and expectations, and the development of novel and flexible solutions. Managers and administrators seeking to implement person-directed care will need to consider the role of adaptive leadership to address these adaptive challenges. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Implementing Culture Change in Nursing Homes: An Adaptive Leadership Framework

    PubMed Central

    Corazzini, Kirsten; Twersky, Jack; White, Heidi K.; Buhr, Gwendolen T.; McConnell, Eleanor S.; Weiner, Madeline; Colón-Emeric, Cathleen S.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: To describe key adaptive challenges and leadership behaviors to implement culture change for person-directed care. Design and Methods: The study design was a qualitative, observational study of nursing home staff perceptions of the implementation of culture change in each of 3 nursing homes. We conducted 7 focus groups of licensed and unlicensed nursing staff, medical care providers, and administrators. Questions explored perceptions of facilitators and barriers to culture change. Using a template organizing style of analysis with immersion/crystallization, themes of barriers and facilitators were coded for adaptive challenges and leadership. Results: Six key themes emerged, including relationships, standards and expectations, motivation and vision, workload, respect of personhood, and physical environment. Within each theme, participants identified barriers that were adaptive challenges and facilitators that were examples of adaptive leadership. Commonly identified challenges were how to provide person-directed care in the context of extant rules or policies or how to develop staff motivated to provide person-directed care. Implications: Implementing culture change requires the recognition of adaptive challenges for which there are no technical solutions, but which require reframing of norms and expectations, and the development of novel and flexible solutions. Managers and administrators seeking to implement person-directed care will need to consider the role of adaptive leadership to address these adaptive challenges. PMID:24451896

  4. Recent Advances in Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Studies in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D. R.; Moser, S. C.; Hanemann, M.; Pittiglio, S.

    2010-12-01

    The State of California is committed to preparing periodic climate change impacts and adaptation assessments to inform and develop policy in the State. The most recent assessment was released late in 2009 and a new vulnerability and adaptation assessment is underway for release in late 2011. Both assessments use IPCC climate simulations that were statistically downscaled to a horizontal resolution of about 12 Km. The 2009 California assessment attempted to translate some impacts and adaptation options into monetary terms which introduced additional uncertainties. The 2011 California assessment combines a set of coordinated statewide and regional/local studies because many adaptation options, though informed by state and national policies, will be implemented at regional and local levels. The 2011 assessment expands the number of climate simulations that are employed in order to form a fuller estimate of the potential envelope of climate change and its impacts in the state. It also introduces a subset of dynamically downscaled scenarios to understand how well statistical relationships, developed using historical data, hold up in future climate regimes. Investigations are on-going to translate the ensemble of climate simulations and to begin to attach probabilities to the scenarios using subjective and objective techniques. In addition to advances in climate simulations and downscaling techniques, the new vulnerability and adaptation assessment also increasingly integrates social science approaches to assessing vulnerabilities and adaptation options. This presentation will illustrate results from the 2009 assessment and describe the design and initial implementation of the 2011 assessment.

  5. Impacts of local adaptation of forest trees on associations with herbivorous insects: implications for adaptive forest management

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, Frazer H; Stone, Graham N; Nicholls, James A; Cavers, Stephen; Gibbs, Melanie; Butterill, Philip; Wagner, Stefanie; Ducousso, Alexis; Gerber, Sophie; Petit, Rémy J; Kremer, Antoine; Schönrogge, Karsten

    2015-01-01

    Disruption of species interactions is a key issue in climate change biology. Interactions involving forest trees may be particularly vulnerable due to evolutionary rate limitations imposed by long generation times. One mitigation strategy for such impacts is Climate matching – the augmentation of local native tree populations by input from nonlocal populations currently experiencing predicted future climates. This strategy is controversial because of potential cascading impacts on locally adapted animal communities. We explored these impacts using abundance data for local native gallwasp herbivores sampled from 20 provenances of sessile oak (Quercus petraea) planted in a common garden trial. We hypothesized that non-native provenances would show (i) declining growth performance with increasing distance between provenance origin and trial site, and (ii) phenological differences to local oaks that increased with latitudinal differences between origin and trial site. Under a local adaptation hypothesis, we predicted declining gallwasp abundance with increasing phenological mismatch between native and climate-matched trees. Both hypotheses for oaks were supported. Provenance explained significant variation in gallwasp abundance, but no gall type showed the relationship between abundance and phenological mismatch predicted by a local adaptation hypothesis. Our results show that climate matching would have complex and variable impacts on oak gall communities. PMID:26640522

  6. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  7. Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

    SciTech Connect

    Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

    2015-05-25

    The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However, the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.

  8. [Adaptive changes in the body upon exposure to electromagnetic radiation].

    PubMed

    Zubkova, S M

    1996-01-01

    The chance to use electromagnetic exposures as active adaptogen and the detecting of adaptive changes following them were objects of our studies. The data of experimental and clinical studies significative the dependence of changes on the functional state of organism were seen. Particular attention is paid to the site of exposure and to the advantages in the action of electromagnetic exposures on areas overlaying the endocrine glands and control centers of central nerve system. In these conditions electromagnetic exposures play a part of trigger initiated natural processes of homeostatic regulation in the organism functional systems. It is shown that the course of electromagnetic exposures in wide frequency range until laser radiation (infrared and red) arises adaptive changes of the regulator systems, of the bioenergetic and the biosynthetic processes in myocardium, liver, brain, thymus and other tissues predetermined genetically and secured the power of the adaptive systems. The cross-adaptation effects underlie the electromagnetic exposures medical action.

  9. INVESTIGATION OF EXISTING POLICIES CONTRIBUTION TO PROMOTING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION -A CASE STUDY IN TOKYO-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hijioka, Yasuaki; Oka, Kazutaka; Takano, Saneyuki; Yoshikawa, Minoru; Ichihashi, Arata

    The impacts of global warming are already appearing in various regions of the world. Therefore, in addition to strongly promoting mitigation policies, it is an urgent need to study and implement adaptation policies from a long-term perspective in preparation for some possible negative impacts. The Japanese Government has long promoted various countermeasures for disaster prevention, environmental management, food production and protection of the nation's health. These counterm easures are considered to have potential effects asclimate change adaptation. This study investigated to what extent the existing policies for Tokyo can contribute to its climate change adaptation on the basis of comprehensively organizing targeted fields an dindicators in which adaptation policies should be taken. Research results indicated that the existing policies could be useful as climate change adaptation in many fields and indicators. Furthermore, the present problems were clarified accompanied with implementation of climate change adaptation at the municipalities' level, and solutions were proposed on how to use scientific knowledge to solve the problems.

  10. Changing Rural Social Systems: Adaptation and Survival.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Nan E., Ed.; Wang, Ching-li, Ed.

    This book includes studies of globalization-related social changes in rural areas of the United States and other countries and implications of these studies for sociological theory. Although no chapter focuses exclusively on education, education-related themes include rural school dropouts and intergenerational poverty, the migration of rural…

  11. Changing Rural Social Systems: Adaptation and Survival.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Nan E., Ed.; Wang, Ching-li, Ed.

    This book includes studies of globalization-related social changes in rural areas of the United States and other countries and implications of these studies for sociological theory. Although no chapter focuses exclusively on education, education-related themes include rural school dropouts and intergenerational poverty, the migration of rural…

  12. Adapting dairy farms to climate change

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change is projected to affect many aspects of dairy production. These aspects include the growing season length, crop growth processes, harvest timing and losses, heat stress on cattle, nutrient emissions and losses, and ultimately farm profitability. To assess the sensitivity of dairy farms...

  13. Regional Climate Tutorial: Assessing Regional Climate Change and Its Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barron, E.; Fisher, A.

    2002-05-01

    Recent scientific progress now enables credible projections of global changes in climate over long time periods. But people will experience global climate change where they live and work, and have difficulty thinking of a future beyond their grandchildren's lifetime. Although the task of projecting climate change and its impacts is far more challenging for regional and relatively near-term time scales, these are the scales at which actions most easily can be taken to moderate negative impacts. This tutorial will summarize what is known about projecting changes in regional climate, and about assessing the impacts for sectors such as forests, agriculture, fresh water quantity and quality, coastal zones, human health, and ecosystems. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) is used to provide context and illustrate how adaptation within the region and feedback from other regions influence the impacts that might be experienced.

  14. The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

  15. The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

  16. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

    2014-11-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

  17. Adapting to a changing world: Implications for water management.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loucks, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    Everyone is aware that the world is changing, and that many of these changes will impact our water resource supplies and how they are used and managed. It's always a challenge to try to predict the future, especially the very uncertain distant future. But one thing is certain, the future environment our descendants will experience will differ from the economic, social, technological and natural conditions we experience today. Some aspects of the changes that are happening may not be under human control, but many are. And to the extent they are, we can influence that future. In this paper I attempt to speculate about a future some 40 to 50 years from now, and how water will need to be managed then. My goal is to motivate some thinking and discussion about how we as water managers can influence and prepare ourselves (or our successors) for that future. It will require collaboration among multiple disciplines to determine how best we as a profession can help society adapt to these changes, and this in turn will require all of us to learn how to work together more effectively than we do now. This theme fits in with the current interest in sustainability, for no matter how it is defined, sustainability makes us think about the long-term future. How do we develop and manage our natural and cultural resources in ways that benefit both us and future generations of people living on this earth? What will their needs and goals be? We don't know and that is the major challenge in deciding what decisions we might make today on their behalf. Here I attempt to identify the challenges and issues water managers could be addressing some 40 to 50 years from now, and what we in each of our disciplines, and together, can begin to do now to address them.

  18. Program on Promoting Climate Change Adaptation Technologies Bridging Policy Making and Science Research in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Y.; Chiang, W.; Sui, C.; Tung, C.; Ho, H.; Li, M.; Chan, S.; Climate Change Adaptation Technologies Program, National Science Council, Taiwan

    2010-12-01

    Climate changes adaptation needs innovative technological revolution on demand for transdisciplinary studies in various temporal and spatial scales. In our proposed program, a systematic and scientific framework will be developed to promote innovative adaptation technologies with respect to providing decision making information for government sectors, enhancing applicability of scientific research output, strengthening national research capabilities, and integrating both academic and non-academic resources. The objectives of this program are to identify key issues, required technologies, and scientific knowledge for climate change adaptations, and to build a transdisciplinary platform bridging science-supported technologies required by government sectors and demand-oriented scientific research conducted by academic communities. The approach proposed herein will be practiced in vulnerable regions, such as urban, rural, mountain, river basin, and coastal areas, which are particularly sensitive to climate change. The first phase of 3-year (2011~2013) work is to deploy framework and strategies of climate change impact assessment and adaptation measures between related government sectors and researchers from academic communities. The proposed framework involves three principle research groups, namely Environmental System, Vulnerability Assessment, and Risk Management and Adaptation Technology. The goal of the first group, Environmental System, is to combine climate change projections with enhanced scientific and environmental monitoring technologies for better adaptations to future scenarios in different social, economic, and environmental sectors to support adaptation measures planning and to reduce uncertainties on assessing vulnerability. The goal of the second group, Vulnerability Assessment, is to identify interfaces and information structures of climate change vulnerably issues and to develop protocol, models, and indices for vulnerability assessment. The goal of

  19. Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Arbuthnott, Katherine; Hajat, Shakoor; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris

    2016-03-08

    examined the risk of cold. In contrast to the changes in heat related mortality observed, only one found a significant decrease in cold related mortality in later time periods. There is evidence that across a number of different settings, population susceptibility to heat and heatwaves has been decreasing. These changes in heat related susceptibility have important implications for health impact assessments of future heat related risk. A similar decrease in cold related mortality was not shown. Adaptation to heat has implications for future planning, particularly in urban areas, with anticipated increases in temperature due to climate change.

  20. Severe Weather in a Changing Climate: Getting to Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuebbles, D. J.; Janssen, E.; Kunkel, K.

    2011-12-01

    warming, and large precipitation events will likely increase in intensity and frequency. In the presentation, we will not only discuss the recent trends in severe weather and the projections of the impacts of climate change on severe weather in the future, but also specific examples of how this information is being used in developing and applying adaptation policies.

  1. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Seino, Hiroshi

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  2. Environmental insurance adapts to changing needs

    SciTech Connect

    Vuono, M. )

    1995-03-01

    No longer simply a specialty service niche, environmental insurance has become an increasingly important asset to businesses worldwide. Companies of all sizes are using insurance as a proactive tool for prudent environmental risk management. During the last five years, the environmental insurance industry has matured to meet the ever-changing environmental insurance needs of business. A broad range of policies and programs offers coverage against damages caused by chemical spills, hazardous material and related environmental contaminants. Securing environmental insurance coverage has become as customary for many businesses as acquiring general liability and automobile insurance.

  3. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes

  4. Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

    Treesearch

    Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

    2016-01-01

    Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

  5. Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?

    PubMed

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Friel, Sharon

    2012-05-27

    Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

  6. Climate change adaptation: Where does global health fit in the agenda?

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities. PMID:22632569

  7. Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wein, Anne M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines possible adaptations to climate change in terms of pasture and crop land use and stocking rate in the United States (U.S.). Using Agricultural Census and climate data in a statistical model, we find that as temperature and precipitation increases agricultural commodity producers respond by reducing crop land and increasing pasture land. In addition, cattle stocking rate decreases as the summer Temperature-humidity Index (THI) increases and summer precipitation decreases. Using the statistical model with climate data from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), we project that land use shifts from cropping to grazing and the stocking rate declines, and these adaptations are more pronounced in the central and the southeast regions of the U.S. Controlling for other farm production variables, crop land decreases by 6 % and pasture land increases by 33 % from the baseline. Correspondingly, the associated economic impact due to adaptation is around -14 and 29 million dollars to crop producers and pasture producers by the end of this century, respectively. The national and regional results have implications for farm programs and subsidy policies.

  8. Human Interventions versus Climate Change: Impacts on Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

    2009-12-01

    Water availability and occurrence of water induced disasters are impacted by both natural and human centric drivers. Climate change is considered to be one of the noted drivers in this regard. Human interventions through land use/land cover change, stream and floodplain regulations via dams, weirs, and embankments could be other equally important group of drivers. Unlike developed countries that have both resources and capabilities to adapt and mitigate the impact of such drivers, developing countries are increasingly at more risk. Identifying roles of such drivers are fundamental to the formulation of any adaptation and mitigation plans for their impacts for developing countries. In this study, we present a few examples from three regions of Nepal- a developing country in South Asia generally considered as a water rich country. Through results of modeling and statistical analyses, we show which driver is in control in different watersheds. Preliminary results show that climate change impact appears to be more prominent in large snow-fed river basins. In the smaller non-snow-fed watersheds originating from the middle hill, the impacts are not explicit despite perception of local people about changes in the water availability. In the southern belt bordering India, the impacts of river regulation on downstream areas are found to be the principal cause of flooding/inundation.

  9. Resituation or Resistance? Higher Education Teachers' Adaptations to Technological Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Westberry, Nicola; McNaughton, Susan; Billot, Jennie; Gaeta, Helen

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the findings from a project that explored teachers' adaptations to technological change in four large classes in higher education. In these classes, lecturers changed from single- to multi-lecture settings mediated by videoconferencing, requiring them to transfer their beliefs and practices into a new pedagogical space. The…

  10. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

    2017-01-01

    The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership was developed to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Blue Mountains region, to find solutions that can minimize negative effects of climate change, and to facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. Partnering organizations included three national forests (Malheur, Umatilla...

  11. Adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability: a comparative study between seven contrasting river basins.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Droogers, P.

    2003-04-01

    Climate change and climate variability is and will have a tremendous impact on hydrology and consequently on food security and environmental protection. From the four major components in climate change and climate variability studies, projection, mitigation, impact and adaptation, has the latter so far received less attention than the other three. An international collaboration of ten institutions is comparing adaptation strategies between contrasting basins ranging from wet to dry and from poor to rich. Basins included are: Mekong, Walawe (Sri Lanka), Rhine, Sacramento, Syr Darya, Volta, and Zayandeh (Iran). Simulation models at basin and field scale have been set up and possible adaptation strategies are explored by these models. Preliminary results indicate that appropriate adaptation strategies are different between these seven contrasting basins. It is also clear that these adaptation strategies should focus on increased variability rather than on the overall change of the mean. The focus was hereby not only on an increase in variation but especially on the number of successive dry and wet years. Results show that the studies on these adaptation strategies could not be performed only at one scale, but that a combination of field scale as well as basin scale analysis is essential.

  12. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-04-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  13. Governance of social dilemmas in climate change adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisaro, Alexander; Hinkel, Jochen

    2016-04-01

    In the field of adaptation governance research, current discussion on the barriers to adaptation shows that theoretical explanations for why institutions emerge and how they enable or constrain adaptation are underdeveloped. In this Perspective, we show that there is a significant opportunity to advance the understanding of adaptation governance by integrating insights that have been developed in the extensive commons literature on the institutions that work to overcome social conflicts or dilemmas. 'Realist-materialist' approaches to understanding such collective action are particularly valuable to adaptation governance research because they emphasize how biophysical conditions give rise to certain types of social dilemma. Climate change affects these biophysical conditions, and thus may alter dilemmas or create new ones. Based on realist-materialist reasoning, this Perspective describes six types of dilemma, illustrates each with a case from the adaptation literature and draws on insights from the commons literature regarding relevant contextual conditions and effective policy instruments for overcoming social dilemmas. The dilemma types provide entry points for rigorous comparative adaptation research to deepen understanding of how context influences adaptation governance processes.

  14. Decisions from Experience: How Groups and Individuals Adapt to Change

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-01-01

    Recency , then, may have helped individuals adapt to changes. Although recency effects are a common finding in the context of decisions from...decision-making behavior shows recency effects , as is commonly observed in the literature, individuals can be expected to deviate from Bayesian...Betsch, et al., in press, refer to as routine effects ). Alternatively, they may deviate from Bayesian updating in two ways: They may delay adaptation

  15. National Hydroclimatic Change and Infrastructure Adaptation Assessment: Region-Specific Adaptation Factors

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change, land use and socioeconomic developments are principal variables that define the need and scope of adaptive engineering and management to sustain water resource and infrastructure development. As described in IPCC (2007), hydroclimatic changes in the next 30-50 ye...

  16. National Hydroclimatic Change and Infrastructure Adaptation Assessment: Region-Specific Adaptation Factors

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change, land use and socioeconomic developments are principal variables that define the need and scope of adaptive engineering and management to sustain water resource and infrastructure development. As described in IPCC (2007), hydroclimatic changes in the next 30-50 ye...

  17. A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change

    Treesearch

    Leslie Brandt; Abigail Derby Lewis; Robert Fahey; Lydia Scott; Lindsay Darling; Chris Swanston

    2016-01-01

    Planting urban trees and expanding urban forest canopy cover are often considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areas. However, urban trees and forests can also be vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat suitability, changes in pests and diseases, and changes in extreme weather events. We developed a three-step...

  18. Adaptive potential of a Pacific salmon challenged by climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muñoz, Nicolas J.; Farrell, Anthony P.; Heath, John W.; Neff, Bryan D.

    2015-02-01

    Pacific salmon provide critical sustenance for millions of people worldwide and have far-reaching impacts on the productivity of ecosystems. Rising temperatures now threaten the persistence of these important fishes, yet it remains unknown whether populations can adapt. Here, we provide the first evidence that a Pacific salmon has both physiological and genetic capacities to increase its thermal tolerance in response to rising temperatures. In juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a 4 °C increase in developmental temperature was associated with a 2 °C increase in key measures of the thermal performance of cardiac function. Moreover, additive genetic effects significantly influenced several measures of cardiac capacity, indicative of heritable variation on which selection can act. However, a lack of both plasticity and genetic variation was found for the arrhythmic temperature of the heart, constraining this upper thermal limit to a maximum of 24.5 +/- 2.2 °C. Linking this constraint on thermal tolerance with present-day river temperatures and projected warming scenarios, we predict a 17% chance of catastrophic loss in the population by 2100 based on the average warming projection, with this chance increasing to 98% in the maximum warming scenario. Climate change mitigation is thus necessary to ensure the future viability of Pacific salmon populations.

  19. Adaptable habitablity, niche filling and exo-climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagai, Perets

    2015-07-01

    Planetary orbits may change due to gravitational perturbations by external bodies. Such changes can occur both on short and long timescales, and give rise to significant changes in the planetary climate and habitability. Such changes may render the climate inhabitable for any original pre-existing organisms. However, if the climate change timescale is longer than the timescale for organism genetic adaptation over several generations, the population of pre- existing organisms may evolve and adapt to the new conditions. This raises the possibility for the existence of planets in which life formed and evolved under favorable conditions, and then adapted to extreme conditions once significant climate-change occured. Such planets may therefore appear today as having too-extreme conditions as to allow for the emergence of life, even though life could have formed at ealier epoch at which time the planet climate differed. One can therefore discuss the possibility of "adaptable habitability", which relies not only on the current conditions but on the climate history and the dynamics of the planetary system. Moreover, once life emerges and evolves to the stage in which rapid adaptababilty is possible, organisms may adapt as to fill extreme environmental nches (e.g. extremophiles on Earth). Once climate-change leads to overall extreme planetary conditions, such originally extreme- niche filling organisms can prevail and occupy the main environments of the planets, where as such extreme planetary conditions, if they existed primordially, wouldn't have allowed for the emergence of life to begin with. We discuss these issues, and provide detailed planetary dynamics examples for such adaptable habitability to occur.

  20. Synthetic circuit for exact adaptation and fold-change detection

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jongmin; Khetarpal, Ishan; Murray, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Biological organisms use their sensory systems to detect changes in their environment. The ability of sensory systems to adapt to static inputs allows wide dynamic range as well as sensitivity to input changes including fold-change detection, a response that depends only on fold changes in input, and not on absolute changes. This input scale invariance underlies an important strategy for search that depends solely on the spatial profile of the input. Synthetic efforts to reproduce the architecture and response of cellular circuits provide an important step to foster understanding at the molecular level. We report the bottom-up assembly of biochemical systems that show exact adaptation and fold-change detection. Using a malachite green aptamer as the output, a synthetic transcriptional circuit with the connectivity of an incoherent feed-forward loop motif exhibits pulse generation and exact adaptation. A simple mathematical model was used to assess the amplitude and duration of pulse response as well as the parameter regimes required for fold-change detection. Upon parameter tuning, this synthetic circuit exhibits fold-change detection for four successive rounds of two-fold input changes. The experimental realization of fold-change detection circuit highlights the programmability of transcriptional switches and the ability to obtain predictive dynamical systems in a cell-free environment for technological applications. PMID:24728988

  1. Synthetic circuit for exact adaptation and fold-change detection.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jongmin; Khetarpal, Ishan; Sen, Shaunak; Murray, Richard M

    2014-05-01

    Biological organisms use their sensory systems to detect changes in their environment. The ability of sensory systems to adapt to static inputs allows wide dynamic range as well as sensitivity to input changes including fold-change detection, a response that depends only on fold changes in input, and not on absolute changes. This input scale invariance underlies an important strategy for search that depends solely on the spatial profile of the input. Synthetic efforts to reproduce the architecture and response of cellular circuits provide an important step to foster understanding at the molecular level. We report the bottom-up assembly of biochemical systems that show exact adaptation and fold-change detection. Using a malachite green aptamer as the output, a synthetic transcriptional circuit with the connectivity of an incoherent feed-forward loop motif exhibits pulse generation and exact adaptation. A simple mathematical model was used to assess the amplitude and duration of pulse response as well as the parameter regimes required for fold-change detection. Upon parameter tuning, this synthetic circuit exhibits fold-change detection for four successive rounds of two-fold input changes. The experimental realization of fold-change detection circuit highlights the programmability of transcriptional switches and the ability to obtain predictive dynamical systems in a cell-free environment for technological applications.

  2. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    PubMed

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-12-15

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Water governance: learning by developing adaptive capacity to incorporate climate variability and change.

    PubMed

    Kashyap, A

    2004-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities.

  4. Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Holmner, Åsa; Rocklöv, Joacim; Ng, Nawi; Nilsson, Maria

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on ‘green information and communication technology (ICT)’ are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies. PMID:22679398

  5. Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation.

    PubMed

    Holmner, Asa; Rocklöv, Joacim; Ng, Nawi; Nilsson, Maria

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on 'green information and communication technology (ICT)' are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies.

  6. Limits to health adaptation in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2015-12-01

    Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the magnitude and pattern of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

  7. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    PubMed

    Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Adger, W Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

  8. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Cities: A Global Baseline.

    PubMed

    Araos, Malcolm; Austin, Stephanie E; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will have significant impacts on human health, and urban populations are expected to be highly sensitive. The health risks from climate change in cities are compounded by rapid urbanization, high population density, and climate-sensitive built environments. Local governments are positioned to protect populations from climate health risks, but it is unclear whether municipalities are producing climate-adaptive policies. In this article, we develop and apply systematic methods to assess the state of public health adaptation in 401 urban areas globally with more than 1 million people, creating the first global baseline for urban public health adaptation. We find that only 10% of the sampled urban areas report any public health adaptation initiatives. The initiatives identified most frequently address risks posed by extreme weather events and involve direct changes in management or behavior rather than capacity building, research, or long-term investments in infrastructure. Based on our characterization of the current urban health adaptation landscape, we identify several gaps: limited evidence of reporting of institutional adaptation at the municipal level in urban areas in the Global South; lack of information-based adaptation initiatives; limited focus on initiatives addressing infectious disease risks; and absence of monitoring, reporting, and evaluation. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change.

    PubMed

    Atkins, K E; Travis, J M J

    2010-10-07

    The potential impact of climate change on biodiversity is well documented. A well developed range of statistical methods currently exists that projects the possible future habitat of a species directly from the current climate and a species distribution. However, studies incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes remain limited. Here, we focus on the potential role that local adaptation to climate may play in driving the range dynamics of sessile organisms. Incorporating environmental adaptation into a stochastic simulation yields several new insights. Counter-intuitively, our simulation results suggest that species with broader ranges are not necessarily more robust to climate change. Instead, species with broader ranges can be more susceptible to extinction as locally adapted genotypes are often blocked from range shifting by the presence of cooler adapted genotypes that persist even when their optimum climate has left them behind. Interestingly, our results also suggest that it will not always be the cold-adapted phenotypes that drive polewards range expansion. Instead, range shifts may be driven by phenotypes conferring adaptation to conditions prevalent towards the centre of a species' equilibrium distribution. This may have important consequences for the conservation method termed predictive provenancing. These initial results highlight the potential importance of local adaptation in determining how species will respond to climate change and we argue that this is an area requiring urgent theoretical and empirical attention.

  10. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Louisa S.; Hicks, Christina C.; Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L.; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute. PMID:26960200

  11. Probable impacts of climate change on public health in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Shahid, Shamsuddin

    2010-07-01

    The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirmed that there is overwhelming evidence that the global climate will severely affect human health. Climate change might have severe consequences on public health in Bangladesh, especially in light of the poor state of the country's public health infrastructure. A number of possible direct and indirect impacts of climate change on public health in Bangladesh have been identified in this article. Adaptive measures that should be taken to reduce the negative consequences of climate change on public health have also been discussed.

  12. Extending the Roy adaptation model to meet changing global needs.

    PubMed

    Roy, Callista

    2011-10-01

    The purpose of this article is to articulate how the Roy adaptation model has been extended as a conceptual framework to meet changing global needs. Nursing's social mandate is described within the significant global changes of this century. The required synthesis of the individual and common good is predicated within the thinking of the model. Changes are described with specific examples of groups from the family to global society levels. The implications of this work for knowledge development are identified.

  13. Data and knowledge gaps in glacier, snow and related runoff research - A climate change adaptation perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salzmann, Nadine; Huggel, Christian; Rohrer, Mario; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-10-01

    Glacier and snow cover changes with related impacts on melt runoff can seriously affect human societies which are depending on fresh water from cryospheric sources. Observed trends and projected future evolutions of climatic and cryospheric variables clearly show the need to adapt to these changes. Accordingly, the topics addressed herein have been put on the agendas of many larger funding agencies. This article provides a brief overview on major ongoing activities on glacier, snow and related runoff research in order to then analyze data gaps and research needs from a climate change adaptation perspective. Major data needs are identified with respect to the spatial and temporal coverage of local-scale data and related needs for (data) services that distribute and maintain these data sets. Moreover, clear research needs are also recognized at the local scale where process knowledge needs to be improved (e.g., the influence of albedo on snow and ice or debris cover on glaciers) in order to derive plausible climate change impacts assessments. The paper then discusses directions on how to move forward to better serve the practical needs for climate change adaptation planning. In the future, substantial support by large funding agencies might be key for capacity building in target regions of climate change adaptation programs, for longer-term and more sustainable commitments, and for the development of approaches, which aim at assessing the transferability of data, techniques, and tools.

  14. Adapting to Change: The Value of Change Information and Meaning-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van den Heuvel, Machteld; Demerouti, Evangelia; Bakker, Arnold B.; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this 3-wave study is to examine the micro process of how employees adapt to change over time. We combined Conservation of Resources theory with insights from the organizational change literature to study employees in a Dutch police district undergoing reorganization. A model was tested where employee adaptability, operationalized by…

  15. Adapting to Change: The Value of Change Information and Meaning-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van den Heuvel, Machteld; Demerouti, Evangelia; Bakker, Arnold B.; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this 3-wave study is to examine the micro process of how employees adapt to change over time. We combined Conservation of Resources theory with insights from the organizational change literature to study employees in a Dutch police district undergoing reorganization. A model was tested where employee adaptability, operationalized by…

  16. Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

  17. Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

    PubMed

    Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  18. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  19. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  20. A Web Based Geographic Information Platform to Support Urban Adaptation to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Nugent, Philip J; Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Mei, Rui; Ernst, Kathleen M; Absar, Mariya

    2015-01-01

    The urban climate is changing rapidly. Therefore, climate change and its projected impacts on environmental conditions must be considered in assessing and comparing urban planning alternatives. In this paper, we present an integrated framework for urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT) that will help cities to plan for, rather than react to, possible risks. Urban-CAT will be developed as a scenario planning tool that is locally relevant to existing urban decision-making processes.

  1. Climate Change Adaptation Science Activities at NASA Johnson Space Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stefanov, William L.; Lulla, Kamlesh

    2012-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center (JSC), located in the southeast metropolitan region of Houston, TX is the prime NASA center for human spaceflight operations and astronaut training, but it also houses the unique collection of returned extraterrestrial samples, including lunar samples from the Apollo missions. The Center's location adjacent to Clear Lake and the Clear Creek watershed, an estuary of Galveston Bay, puts it at direct annual risk from hurricanes, but also from a number of other climate-related hazards including drought, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, and high wind events all assigned Threat Levels of 2 or 3 in the most recent NASA Center Disaster/Risk Matrix produced by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Working Group. Based on prior CASI workshops at other NASA centers, it is recognized that JSC is highly vulnerable to climate-change related hazards and has a need for adaptation strategies. We will present an overview of prior CASI-related work at JSC, including publication of a climate change and adaptation informational data brochure, and a Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop that was held at JSC in early March 2012. Major outcomes of that workshop that form a basis for work going forward are 1) a realization that JSC is embedded in a regional environmental and social context, and that potential climate change effects and adaptation strategies will not, and should not, be constrained by the Center fence line; 2) a desire to coordinate data collection and adaptation planning activities with interested stakeholders to form a regional climate change adaptation center that could facilitate interaction with CASI; 3) recognition that there is a wide array of basic data (remotely sensed, in situ, GIS/mapping, and historical) available through JSC and other stakeholders, but this data is not yet centrally accessible for planning purposes.

  2. Adaptation services of floodplains and wetlands under transformational climate change.

    PubMed

    Colloff, Matthew J; Lavorel, Sandra; Wise, Russell M; Dunlop, Michael; Overton, Ian C; Williams, Kristen J

    2016-06-01

    Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can

  3. Adaptation services of floodplains and wetlands under transformational climate change.

    PubMed

    Colloff, Matthew; Lavorel, Sandra; Wise, Russell M; Dunlop, Michael; Overton, Ian C; Williams, Kristen J

    2016-06-01

    Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can

  4. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torda, Gergely; Donelson, Jennifer M.; Aranda, Manuel; Barshis, Daniel J.; Bay, Line; Berumen, Michael L.; Bourne, David G.; Cantin, Neal; Foret, Sylvain; Matz, Mikhail; Miller, David J.; Moya, Aurelie; Putnam, Hollie M.; Ravasi, Timothy; van Oppen, Madeleine J. H.; Thurber, Rebecca Vega; Vidal-Dupiol, Jeremie; Voolstra, Christian R.; Watson, Sue-Ann; Whitelaw, Emma; Willis, Bette L.; Munday, Philip L.

    2017-09-01

    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  5. The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change.

    PubMed

    Warren, Rachel

    2011-01-13

    The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4°C world, and also makes a comparison with a 2°C world. In a 4°C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4°C world. By contrast, a 2°C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the Earth's forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2°C or a 4°C world.

  6. Health care facilities resilient to climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Paterson, Jaclyn; Berry, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Varangu, Linda

    2014-12-01

    Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator's guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change.

  7. Health Care Facilities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Paterson, Jaclyn; Berry, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Varangu, Linda

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator’s guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change. PMID:25522050

  8. A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Moser, Susanne C.; Ekstrom, Julia A.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a systematic framework to identify barriers that may impede the process of adaptation to climate change. The framework targets the process of planned adaptation and focuses on potentially challenging but malleable barriers. Three key sets of components create the architecture for the framework. First, a staged depiction of an idealized, rational approach to adaptation decision-making makes up the process component. Second, a set of interconnected structural elements includes the actors, the larger context in which they function (e.g., governance), and the object on which they act (the system of concern that is exposed to climate change). At each of these stages, we ask (i) what could impede the adaptation process and (ii) how do the actors, context, and system of concern contribute to the barrier. To facilitate the identification of barriers, we provide a series of diagnostic questions. Third, the framework is completed by a simple matrix to help locate points of intervention to overcome a given barrier. It provides a systematic starting point for answering critical questions about how to support climate change adaptation at all levels of decision-making. PMID:21135232

  9. Expert views of climate change adaptation in least developed Asia.

    PubMed

    Sovacool, Benjamin K; D'Agostino, Anthony L; Meenawat, Harsha; Rawlani, Amireeta

    2012-04-30

    Drawing primarily from original data collected from more than 100 semi-structured research interviews, this study discusses the benefits of four climate change adaptation projects being implemented in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, and the Maldives. The article begins by explaining its research methods and selecting a sample of Global Environment Facility-Least Developed Country Fund projects being implemented in Asia to analyze. It then describes ongoing adaptation efforts in each of these four countries. It finds that projects enhance infrastructural resilience by building relevant, robust, and flexible technologies. They build institutional resilience by creating strong, permanent, legitimate organizations in place to respond to climate change issues. They promote community resilience by enhancing local ownership, building capacity, and creating networks that help ordinary people learn and adapt to climate change. We find that all four of our case studies couple adaptive improvements in technology and infrastructure with those in governance and community welfare, underscoring the holistic or systemic aspect of resilience. Our study also demonstrates the salience of a functions-based approach to resilience and adaptive capacity rather than an asset-based one. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Communicating climate change adaptation information using web-based platforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karali, Eleni; Mattern, Kati

    2017-07-01

    To facilitate progress in climate change adaptation policy and practice, it is important not only to ensure the production of accurate, comprehensive and relevant information, but also the easy, timely and affordable access to it. This can contribute to better-informed decisions and improve the design and implementation of adaptation policies and other relevant initiatives. Web-based platforms can play an important role in communicating and distributing data, information and knowledge that become constantly available, reaching out to a large group of potential users. Indeed in the last decade there has been an extensive increase in the number of platforms developed for this purpose in many fields including climate change adaptation. This short paper concentrates on the web-based adaptation platforms developed in Europe. It provides an overview of the recently emerged landscape, examines the basic characteristics of a set of platforms that operate at national, transnational and European level, and discusses some of the key challenges related to their development, maintenance and overall management. Findings presented in this short paper are discussed in greater detailed in the Technical Report of the European Environment Agency Overview of climate change adaptation platforms in Europe.

  11. Visuomotor adaptation changes stereoscopic depth perception and tactile discrimination.

    PubMed

    Volcic, Robert; Fantoni, Carlo; Caudek, Corrado; Assad, John A; Domini, Fulvio

    2013-10-23

    Perceptual judgments of relative depth from binocular disparity are systematically distorted in humans, despite in principle having access to reliable 3D information. Interestingly, these distortions vanish at a natural grasping distance, as if perceived stereo depth is contingent on a specific reference distance for depth-disparity scaling that corresponds to the length of our arm. Here we show that the brain's representation of the arm indeed powerfully modulates depth perception, and that this internal calibration can be quickly updated. We used a classic visuomotor adaptation task in which subjects execute reaching movements with the visual feedback of their reaching finger displaced farther in depth, as if they had a longer arm. After adaptation, 3D perception changed dramatically, and became accurate at the "new" natural grasping distance, the updated disparity scaling reference distance. We further tested whether the rapid adaptive changes were restricted to the visual modality or were characteristic of sensory systems in general. Remarkably, we found an improvement in tactile discrimination consistent with a magnified internal image of the arm. This suggests that the brain integrates sensory signals with information about arm length, and quickly adapts to an artificially updated body structure. These adaptive processes are most likely a relic of the mechanisms needed to optimally correct for changes in size and shape of the body during ontogenesis.

  12. Accelerating adaptation of natural resource management to address climate change.

    PubMed

    Cross, Molly S; McCarthy, Patrick D; Garfin, Gregg; Gori, David; Enquist, Carolyn A F

    2013-02-01

    Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants' self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  13. Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This techn...

  14. Climate change and air quality: the potential impact on health.

    PubMed

    Spickett, Jeff T; Brown, H L; Rumchev, Krassi

    2011-03-01

    The objectives of the study were to: consider the potential health impacts in Australia and the region arising from changes in air quality occurring as a result of climate change, identify vulnerable groups and potential adaptation measures and discuss the implications for policy. The authors provide an overview of international and national information on the potential health impacts of air pollutants that would most likely be affected by climate change and a discussion of the policy implications. Climate change is likely to have an impact on levels of ozone and possibly particulates, both of which are associated with increased mortality and a range of respiratory and cardiovascular health effects. One of the implications is therefore a possible increase in adverse health effects due to air pollutants. Regional health impact assessments of climate change should address the issue of air quality, consider current coping capacity, and determine the need for adaptation, particularly for vulnerable groups. Implications for policy include the need for improved modeling and forecasting of air pollutant levels, increased efforts to reduce emissions of air pollutants, continued monitoring of air pollutant levels, and monitoring of the incidence of health effects associated with air pollutants in all countries in the region.

  15. A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies.