Testing mediators hypothesized to account for the effects of a dissonance-based eating disorder prevention program over longer term follow-up.

PubMed

Stice, Eric; Marti, C Nathan; Rohde, Paul; Shaw, Heather

2011-06-01

Test the hypothesis that reductions in thin-ideal internalization and body dissatisfaction mediate the effects of a dissonance-based eating disorder prevention program on reductions in eating disorder symptoms over 1-year follow-up. Data were drawn from a randomized effectiveness trial in which 306 female high school students (mean age = 15.7 years, SD = 1.1) with body image concerns were randomized to the 4-session dissonance-based prevention program or an educational brochure control condition, wherein school counselors and nurses were responsible for participant recruitment and intervention delivery. Dissonance-intervention participants showed greater reductions in thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, and eating disorder symptoms; change in thin-ideal internalization predicted change in body dissatisfaction and symptoms; change in body dissatisfaction predicted change in symptoms; and all indirect effects were significant. Change in thin-ideal internalization fully mediated the effects of intervention condition on change in body dissatisfaction and partially mediated the effects on symptoms; change in body dissatisfaction partially mediated the effect of intervention condition on change in symptoms. Findings provided support for the intervention theory of this eating disorder prevention program over longer term follow-up, extending the evidence base for this effective intervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved).

Testing Mediators Hypothesized to Account for the Effects of a Dissonance Eating Disorder Prevention Program Over Longer-Term Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Stice, Eric; Marti, C. Nathan; Rohde, Paul; Shaw, Heather

2011-01-01

Objective Test the hypothesis that reductions in thin-ideal internalization and body dissatisfaction mediate the effects of a dissonance-based eating disorder prevention program on reductions in eating disorder symptoms over 1-year follow-up. Method Data were drawn from a randomized effectiveness trial in which 306 female high school students (M age = 15.7 SD = 1.1) with body image concerns were randomized to the 4-session dissonance-based prevention program or an educational brochure control condition, wherein school counselors and nurses were responsible for participant recruitment and intervention delivery. Results Dissonance participants showed greater reductions in thin-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, and eating disorder symptoms; change in thin-ideal internalization predicted change in body dissatisfaction and symptoms; change in body dissatisfaction predicted change in symptoms; and all indirect effects were significant. Change in thin-ideal internalization fully mediated the effects of intervention condition on change in body dissatisfaction and partially mediated the effects on symptoms; change in body dissatisfaction partially mediated the effect of intervention condition on change in symptoms. Conclusions Findings provided support for the intervention theory of this eating disorder prevention program over longer-term follow-up, extending the evidence base for this effective intervention. PMID:21500884

Regression Simulation Model. Appendix X. Users Manual,

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-01

change as the prediction equations become refined. Whereas no notice will be provided when the changes are made, the programs will be modified such that...NATIONAL BUREAU Of STANDARDS 1963 A ___,_ __ _ __ _ . APPENDIX X ( R4/ EGRESSION IMULATION ’jDEL. Ape’A ’) 7 USERS MANUA submitted to The Great River...regression analysis and to establish a prediction equation (model). The prediction equation contains the partial regression coefficients (B-weights) which

An empirical evaluation of two theoretically-based hypotheses on the directional association between self-worth and hope.

PubMed

McDavid, Lindley; McDonough, Meghan H; Smith, Alan L

2015-06-01

Fostering self-worth and hope are important goals of positive youth development (PYD) efforts, yet intervention design is complicated by contrasting theoretical hypotheses regarding the directional association between these constructs. Therefore, within a longitudinal design we tested: (1) that self-worth predicts changes in hope (self theory; Harter, 1999), and (2) that hope predicts changes in self-worth (hope theory; Snyder, 2002) over time. Youth (N = 321; Mage = 10.33 years) in a physical activity-based PYD program completed surveys 37-45 days prior to and on the second day and third-to-last day of the program. A latent variable panel model that included autoregressive and cross-lagged paths indicated that self-worth was a significant predictor of change in hope, but hope did not predict change in self-worth. Therefore, the directional association between self-worth and hope is better explained by self-theory and PYD programs should aim to enhance perceptions of self-worth to build perceptions of hope. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SU-E-T-385: Evaluation of DVH Change for PTV Due to Patient Weight Loss in Prostate VMAT Using Gaussian Error Function

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Viraganathan, H; Jiang, R; Chow, J

Purpose: We proposed a method to predict the change of dose-volume histogram (DVH) for PTV due to patient weight loss in prostate volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). This method is based on a pre-calculated patient dataset and DVH curve fitting using the Gaussian error function (GEF). Methods: Pre-calculated dose-volume data from patients having weight loss in prostate VMAT was employed to predict the change of PTV coverage due to reduced depth in external contour. The effect of patient weight loss in treatment was described by a prostate dose-volume factor (PDVF), which was evaluated by the prostate PTV. Along with themore » PDVF, the GEF was used to fit into the DVH curve for the PTV. To predict a new DVH due to weight loss, parameters from the GEF describing the shape of DVH curve were determined. Since the parameters were related to the PDVF as per the specific reduced depth, we could first predict the PDVF at a reduced depth based on the prostate size from the pre-calculated dataset. Then parameters of the GEF could be determined from the PDVF to plot the new DVH for the PTV corresponding to the reduced depth. Results: A MATLAB program was built basing on the patient dataset with different prostate sizes. We input data of the prostate size and reduced depth of the patient into the program. The program then calculated the PDVF and DVH for the PTV considering the patient weight loss. The program was verified by different patient cases with various reduced depths. Conclusion: Our method can estimate the change of DVH for the PTV due to patient weight loss quickly without CT rescan and replan. This would help the radiation staff to predict the change of PTV coverage, when patient’s external contour reduced in prostate VMAT.« less

Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life Changing and Life Threatening Health Changes among Aging Veterans and Civilians with Spinal Cord Injury

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0629 TITLE: Understanding, Predicting, and Preventing Life-Changing and Life-Threatening Health Changes among Aging...Threatening Health Changes among Aging Veterans and Civilians with Spinal Cord Injury 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-16-1-0629 5c. PROGRAM... health conditions, such as pressure ulcers and infections, that occur either in isolation or in combination. Our purpose is to identify how multiple

Short-Term Study Abroad: Predicting Changes in Oral Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martinsen, Rob A.

2010-01-01

Increasing numbers of students are opting for study abroad programs of 2 months or less while research on study abroad generally focuses on semester- or year-long programs. This study quantitatively examines changes in students' spoken Spanish after 6 weeks in Argentina using native speaker ratings of student speech. The researcher then uses…

Self-consistency test reveals systematic bias in programs for prediction change of stability upon mutation.

PubMed

Usmanova, Dinara R; Bogatyreva, Natalya S; Ariño Bernad, Joan; Eremina, Aleksandra A; Gorshkova, Anastasiya A; Kanevskiy, German M; Lonishin, Lyubov R; Meister, Alexander V; Yakupova, Alisa G; Kondrashov, Fyodor A; Ivankov, Dmitry N

2018-05-02

Computational prediction of the effect of mutations on protein stability is used by researchers in many fields. The utility of the prediction methods is affected by their accuracy and bias. Bias, a systematic shift of the predicted change of stability, has been noted as an issue for several methods, but has not been investigated systematically. Presence of the bias may lead to misleading results especially when exploring the effects of combination of different mutations. Here we use a protocol to measure the bias as a function of the number of introduced mutations. It is based on a self-consistency test of the reciprocity the effect of a mutation. An advantage of the used approach is that it relies solely on crystal structures without experimentally measured stability values. We applied the protocol to four popular algorithms predicting change of protein stability upon mutation, FoldX, Eris, Rosetta, and I-Mutant, and found an inherent bias. For one program, FoldX, we manage to substantially reduce the bias using additional relaxation by Modeller. Authors using algorithms for predicting effects of mutations should be aware of the bias described here. ivankov13@gmail.com. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Our Changing Planet: The FY 1993 US Global Change Research Program. A report by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, a supplement to the US President's fiscal year 1993 budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The U.S. Global Change Reasearch Program (USGCRP) was established as a Presidential initiative in the FY-1990 Budget to help develop sound national and international policies related to global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The USGCRP is implemented through a priority-driven scientific research agenda that is designed to be integrated, comprehensive, and multidisciplinary. It is designed explicitly to address scientific uncertainties in such areas as climate change, ozone depletion, changes in terrestrial and marine productivity, global water and energy cycles, sea level changes, the impact of global changes on human health and activities, and the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Earth system. The USGCRP addresses three parallel but interconnected streams of activity: documenting global change (observations); enhancing understanding of key processes (process research); and predicting global and regional environmental change (integrated modeling and prediction).

Short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery predict program sustainability.

PubMed

Cramm, Jane Murray; Nieboer, Anna Petra

2014-01-01

Empirical evidence on sustainability of programs that improve the quality of care delivery over time is lacking. Therefore, this study aims to identify the predictive role of short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery on program sustainability. In this longitudinal study, professionals [2010 (T0): n=218, 55% response rate; 2011 (T1): n=300, 68% response rate; 2012 (T2): n=265, 63% response rate] from 22 Dutch disease-management programs completed surveys assessing quality of care and program sustainability. Our study findings indicated that quality of chronic care delivery improved significantly in the first 2 years after implementation of the disease-management programs. At T1, overall quality, self-management support, delivery system design, and integration of chronic care components, as well as health care delivery and clinical information systems and decision support, had improved. At T2, overall quality again improved significantly, as did community linkages, delivery system design, clinical information systems, decision support and integration of chronic care components, and self-management support. Multilevel regression analysis revealed that quality of chronic care delivery at T0 (p<0.001) and quality changes in the first (p<0.001) and second (p<0.01) years predicted program sustainability. In conclusion this study showed that disease-management programs based on the chronic care model improved the quality of chronic care delivery over time and that short and long term changes in the quality of chronic care delivery predicted the sustainability of the projects. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

USGS global change research

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

The Earth's global environment--its interrelated climate, land, oceans, fresh water, atmospheric and ecological systems-has changed continually throughout Earth history. Human activities are having ever-increasing effects on these systems. Sustaining our environment as population and demands for resources increase requires a sound understanding of the causes and cycles of natural change and the effects of human activities on the Earth's environmental systems. The U.S. Global Change Research Program was authorized by Congress in 1989 to provide the scientific understanding necessary to develop national and international policies concerning global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The program addresses questions such as: what factors determine global climate; have humans already begun to change the global climate; will the climate of the future be very different; what will be the effects of climate change; and how much confidence do we have in our predictions? Through understanding, we can improve our capability to predict change, reduce the adverse effects of human activities, and plan strategies for adapting to natural and human-induced environmental change.

Predicted changes in advanced turboprop noise with shaft angle of attack

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padula, S. L.; Block, P. J. W.

1984-01-01

Advanced turboprop blade designs and new propeller installation schemes motivated an effort to include unsteady loading effects in existing propeller noise prediction computer programs. The present work validates the prediction capability while studing the effects of shaft inclination on the radiated sound field. Classical methods of propeller performance analysis supply the time-dependent blade loading needed to calculate noise. Polar plots of the sound pressure level (SPL) of the first four harmonics and overall SPL are indicative of the change in directivity pattern as a function of propeller angle of attack. Noise predictions are compared with newly available wind tunnel data and the accuracy and applicability of the prediction method are discussed. It is concluded that unsteady blade loading caused by inclining the propeller with respect to the flow changes the directionality and the intensity of the radiated noise. These changes are well modeled by the present quasi-steady prediction method.

Students' Midprogram Content Area Performance as a Predictor of End-of-Program NCLEX Readiness.

PubMed

Brussow, Jennifer A; Dunham, Michelle

2017-12-22

Many programs have implemented end-of-program predictive testing to identify students at risk of NCLEX-RN failure. Unfortunately, for many students, end-of-program testing comes too late. Regression and relative importance analysis were used to explore relationships between 9 content area assessments and an end-of-program assessment shown to be predictive of NCLEX-RN success. Results indicate that scores on assessments for content areas such as medical surgical nursing and care of children are predictive of end-of-program test scores, suggesting that instructors should provide remediation at the first sign of lagging performance.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in anyway or used commercially without permission from the journal.

KC-135 winglet program overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barber, M. R.; Selegan, D.

1982-01-01

A joint NASA/USAF program was conducted to accomplish the following objectives: (1) evaluate the benefits that could be achieved from the application of winglets to KC-135 aircraft; and (2) determine the ability of wind tunnel tests and analytical analysis to predict winglet characteristics. The program included wind-tunnel development of a test winglet configuration; analytical predictions of the changes to the aircraft resulting from the application of the test winglet; and finally, flight tests of the developed configuration. Pressure distribution, loads, stability and control, buffet, fuel mileage, and flutter data were obtained to fulfill the objectives of the program.

Overview of mechanics of materials branch activities in the computational structures area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poe, C. C., Jr.

1992-01-01

Base programs and system programs are discussed. The base programs include fundamental research of composites and metals for airframes leading to characterization of advanced materials, models of behavior, and methods for predicting damage tolerance. Results from the base programs support the systems programs, which change as NASA's missions change. The National Aerospace Plane (NASP), Advanced Composites Technology (ACT), Airframe Structural Integrity Program (Aging Aircraft), and High Speed Research (HSR) programs are currently being supported. Airframe durability is one of the key issues in each of these system programs. The base program has four major thrusts, which will be reviewed subsequently. Additionally, several technical highlights will be reviewed for each thrust.

Predicted effect of landscape position on wildlife habitat value of Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program wetlands in a tile-drained agricultural region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Otis, David L.; Crumpton, William R.; Green, David; Loan-Wilsey, Anna; Cooper, Tom; Johnson, Rex R.

2013-01-01

Justification for investment in restored or constructed wetland projects are often based on presumed net increases in ecosystem services. However, quantitative assessment of performance metrics is often difficult and restricted to a single objective. More comprehensive performance assessments could help inform decision-makers about trade-offs in services provided by alternative restoration program design attributes. The primary goal of the Iowa Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program is to establish wetlands that efficiently remove nitrates from tile-drained agricultural landscapes. A secondary objective is provision of wildlife habitat. We used existing wildlife habitat models to compare relative net change in potential wildlife habitat value for four alternative landscape positions of wetlands within the watershed. Predicted species richness and habitat value for birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles generally increased as the wetland position moved lower in the watershed. However, predicted average net increase between pre- and post-project value was dependent on taxonomic group. The increased average wetland area and changes in surrounding upland habitat composition among landscape positions were responsible for these differences. Net change in predicted densities of several grassland bird species at the four landscape positions was variable and species-dependent. Predicted waterfowl breeding activity was greater for lower drainage position wetlands. Although our models are simplistic and provide only a predictive index of potential habitat value, we believe such assessment exercises can provide a tool for coarse-level comparisons of alternative proposed project attributes and a basis for constructing informed hypotheses in auxiliary empirical field studies.

Reverse-engineering the genetic circuitry of a cancer cell with predicted intervention in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

PubMed

Vallat, Laurent; Kemper, Corey A; Jung, Nicolas; Maumy-Bertrand, Myriam; Bertrand, Frédéric; Meyer, Nicolas; Pocheville, Arnaud; Fisher, John W; Gribben, John G; Bahram, Seiamak

2013-01-08

Cellular behavior is sustained by genetic programs that are progressively disrupted in pathological conditions--notably, cancer. High-throughput gene expression profiling has been used to infer statistical models describing these cellular programs, and development is now needed to guide orientated modulation of these systems. Here we develop a regression-based model to reverse-engineer a temporal genetic program, based on relevant patterns of gene expression after cell stimulation. This method integrates the temporal dimension of biological rewiring of genetic programs and enables the prediction of the effect of targeted gene disruption at the system level. We tested the performance accuracy of this model on synthetic data before reverse-engineering the response of primary cancer cells to a proliferative (protumorigenic) stimulation in a multistate leukemia biological model (i.e., chronic lymphocytic leukemia). To validate the ability of our method to predict the effects of gene modulation on the global program, we performed an intervention experiment on a targeted gene. Comparison of the predicted and observed gene expression changes demonstrates the possibility of predicting the effects of a perturbation in a gene regulatory network, a first step toward an orientated intervention in a cancer cell genetic program.

Predictive validity of five cognitive skills tests among women receiving engineering training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittig, Michele Andrisin; Hennix Sasse, Sharon; Giacomi, Jean

This article addresses two sets of theoretical and practical issues related to increasing the percentage of women engineers. First, the measurement of women's aptitude for and changes in skills during engineering training was assessed. Five cognitive skills tests were administered in a one-group pretest-posttest design to 24 baccalaureate women enrolled in an eleven-month engineering training course. Significant increases in skills were shown on three of the five assessments. Scores on a mathematics anxiety scale and a measure of conservation of horizontality are also reported. Second, the relationship of academic and demographic information and cognitive skills to degree of success in the program is reported. Pretraining spatial visualization scores predicted posttraining GPA group membership. The results are compared and contrasted with those of studies of male undergraduates. Implications are drawn concerning the ways in which evaluations of such programs can contribute to our understanding of the changes in skills that occur with training in engineering and of the factors that predict success in such programs.

Environmental assessment for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: Southern Great Plains Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Policastro, A.J.; Pfingston, J.M.; Maloney, D.M.

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is aimed at supplying improved predictive capability of climate change, particularly the prediction of cloud-climate feedback. The objective will be achieved by measuring the atmospheric radiation and physical and meteorological quantities that control solar radiation in the earth`s atmosphere and using this information to test global climate and related models. The proposed action is to construct and operate a Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) research site in the southern Great Plains as part of the Department of Energy`s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program whose objective is to develop an improved predictive capability of global climatemore » change. The purpose of this CART research site in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma would be to collect meteorological and other scientific information to better characterize the processes controlling radiation transfer on a global scale. Impacts which could result from this facility are described.« less

Comparison of two procedures for predicting rocket engine nozzle performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidian, Kenneth J.

1987-01-01

Two nozzle performance prediction procedures which are based on the standardized JANNAF methodology are presented and compared for four rocket engine nozzles. The first procedure required operator intercedence to transfer data between the individual performance programs. The second procedure is more automated in that all necessary programs are collected into a single computer code, thereby eliminating the need for data reformatting. Results from both procedures show similar trends but quantitative differences. Agreement was best in the predictions of specific impulse and local skin friction coefficient. Other compared quantities include characteristic velocity, thrust coefficient, thrust decrement, boundary layer displacement thickness, momentum thickness, and heat loss rate to the wall. Effects of wall temperature profile used as an input to the programs was investigated by running three wall temperature profiles. It was found that this change greatly affected the boundary layer displacement thickness and heat loss to the wall. The other quantities, however, were not drastically affected by the wall temperature profile change.

STC-SAB program users manual for the turbulent boundary layer and turbulent separation prediction methods employed in the NASA Langley streamtube curvature computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferguson, D. R.

1972-01-01

The streamtube curvature program (STC) has been developed to predict the inviscid flow field and the pressure distribution about nacelles at transonic speeds. The effects of boundary layer are to displace the inviscid flow and effectively change the body shape. Thus, the body shape must be corrected by the displacement thickness in order to calculate the correct pressure distribution. This report describes the coupling of the Stratford and Beavers boundary layer solution with the inviscid STC analysis so that all nacelle pressure forces, friction drag, and incipient separation may be predicted. The usage of the coupled STC-SAB computer program is outlined and the program input and output are defined. Included in this manual are descriptions of the principal boundary layer tables and other revisions to the STC program. The use of the viscous option is controlled by the engineer during program input definition.

Program closure and change among VA substance abuse treatment programs.

PubMed

Floyd, A S

1999-10-01

The population of Veterans Affairs (VA) substance abuse treatment programs in 1990 and 1994 was examined to determine which factors-program legitimacy or cost-accounted for program closure and change. Legitimacy is a concept in institutional theory that organizations tend to take on a form appropriate to the environment. The study had two competing hypotheses. The first was that if external pressures push programs to produce high-quality and efficient treatment, then those that are initially closer to the legitimate form should be less likely to close later, and among surviving programs they should be less likely to experience change. The second hypothesis was that cost is the primary factor in program closure and change. The study used data from administrative surveys of all VA programs (273 in 1990 and 389 in 1994). Program legitimacy variables measured whether programs offered the prevalent type of treatment, such as 12-step groups or behavioral treatment, and had the prevalent type of staff. Program costs did not explain closure or change. For inpatient programs, the risk of closure increased in facilities with more than one substance abuse treatment program. The risk of closure increased for outpatient programs offering the prevalent type of treatment, contrary to what was predicted by the legitimacy hypothesis. Inpatient programs that offered the prevalent treatment were less likely to change the type of treatment offered. Patterns of change differed over time for inpatient and outpatient programs. Legitimacy factors, rather than cost, seem to play a role in program closure and change, although the picture is clearer for inpatient programs than for outpatient programs.

Attending to Structural Programming Features Predicts Differences in Learning and Motivation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Witherspoon, Eben B.; Schunn, Christian D.; Higashi, Ross M.; Shoop, Robin

2018-01-01

Educational robotics programs offer an engaging opportunity to potentially teach core computer science concepts and practices in K-12 classrooms. Here, we test the effects of units with different programming content within a virtual robotics context on both learning gains and motivational changes in middle school (6th-8th grade) robotics…

NASA Contributions to Improve Understanding of Extreme Events in the Global Energy and Water Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has established the water cycle goals of the Nation's climate change program. Accomplishing these goals will require, in part, an accurate accounting of the key reservoirs and fluxes associated with the global water and energy cycle, including their spatial and temporal variability. through integration of all necessary observations and research tools, To this end, in conjunction with NASA's Earth science research strategy, the overarching long-term NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) grand challenge can he summarized as documenting and enabling improved, observationally based, predictions of water and energy cycle consequences of Earth system variability and change. This challenge requires documenting and predicting trends in the rate of the Earth's water and energy cycling that corresponds to climate change and changes in the frequency and intensity of naturally occurring related meteorological and hydrologic events, which may vary as climate may vary in the future. The cycling of water and energy has obvious and significant implications for the health and prosperity of our society. The importance of documenting and predicting water and energy cycle variations and extremes is necessary to accomplish this benefit to society.

Enhancing Participation in the U.S. Global Change Research Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Washington, Warren; Lee, Kai; Arent, Doug

2016-02-29

The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. As the understanding of global change has evolved over the past decades and as demand for scientific information on global change has increased, the USGCRP has increasingly focused on research that can inform decisions to cope with current climate variability and change, to reduce the magnitude of future changes, and to prepare for changes projected over coming decades. Overall, the currentmore » breadth and depth of research in these agencies is insufficient to meet the country's needs, particularly to support decision makers. This report provides a rationale for evaluating current program membership and capabilities and identifying potential new agencies and departments in the hopes that these changes will enable the program to more effectively inform the public and prepare for the future. It also offers actionable recommendations for adjustments to the methods and procedures that will allow the program to better meet its stated goals.« less

Outcomes and Utilization of a Low Intensity Workplace Weight Loss Program

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Kelly M.; Lovejoy, Jennifer C.; Lange, Jane M.; Hapgood, Jenny E.; Zbikowski, Susan M.

2014-01-01

Obesity is related to high health care costs and lost productivity in the workplace. Employers are increasingly sponsoring weight loss and wellness programs to ameliorate these costs. We evaluated weight loss outcomes, treatment utilization, and health behavior change in a low intensity phone- and web-based, employer-sponsored weight loss program. The intervention included three proactive counseling phone calls with a registered dietician and a behavioral health coach as well as a comprehensive website. At six months, one third of those who responded to the follow-up survey had lost a clinically significant amount of weight (≥5% of body weight). Clinically significant weight loss was predicted by the use of both the counseling calls and the website. When examining specific features of the web site, the weight tracking tool was the most predictive of weight loss. Health behavior changes such as eating more fruits and vegetables, increasing physical activity, and reducing stress were all predictive of clinically significant weight loss. Although limited by the low follow-up rate, this evaluation suggests that even low intensity weight loss programs can lead to clinical weight loss for a significant number of participants. PMID:24688791

Viewing death on television increases the appeal of advertised products.

PubMed

Dar-Nimrod, Ilan

2012-01-01

References to death abound in many television programs accessible to most people. Terror Management Theory postulates that existential anxiety, which death reminders activate, may reinforce materialistic tendencies. The current article explores the effect of a death reminder in television shows on the desirability of advertised products. Consistent with Terror Management Theory's predictions, in two studies participants show greater desire for products, which were advertised immediately following clips from programs that featured a death scene, compared with programs that did not. Cognitive accessibility of death predicted the appeal difference while changes in affect or interest in the show did not. The findings are discussed in light on affective and existential theories which make opposite predictions. Implications and future directions are considered.

Viewing Death on Television Increases the Appeal of Advertised Products

PubMed Central

DAR-NIMROD, ILAN

2012-01-01

References to death abound in many television programs accessible to most people. Terror Management Theory (TMT) postulates that existential anxiety, which death reminders activate, may reinforce materialistic tendencies. The current paper explores the effect of a death reminder in television shows on the desirability of advertised products. Consistent with TMT's predictions, in two studies participants show greater desire for products, which were advertised immediately following clips from programs that featured a death scene, compared with programs that did not. Cognitive accessibility of death predicted the appeal difference while changes in affect or interest in the show did not. The findings are discussed in light on affective and existential theories which make opposite predictions. Implications and future directions are considered. PMID:22468421

Community-Based Mindfulness Program for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion: Targeting Stress Reduction.

PubMed

Galla, Brian M; O'Reilly, Gillian A; Kitil, M Jennifer; Smalley, Susan L; Black, David S

2015-01-01

Poorly managed stress leads to detrimental physical and psychological consequences that have implications for individual and community health. Evidence indicates that U.S. adults predominantly use unhealthy strategies for stress management. This study examines the impact of a community-based mindfulness training program on stress reduction. This study used a one-group pretest-posttest design. The study took place at the UCLA Mindful Awareness Research Center in urban Los Angeles. A sample of N = 127 community residents (84% Caucasian, 74% female) were included in the study. Participants received mindfulness training through the Mindful Awareness Practices (MAPs) for Daily Living I. Mindfulness, self-compassion, and perceived stress were measured at baseline and postintervention. Paired-sample t-tests were used to test for changes in outcome measures from baseline to postintervention. Hierarchical regression analysis was fit to examine whether change in self-reported mindfulness and self-compassion predicted postintervention perceived stress scores. There were statistically significant improvements in self-reported mindfulness (t = -10.67, p < .001, d = .90), self-compassion (t = -8.50, p < .001, d = .62), and perceived stress (t = 9.28, p < .001, d = -.78) at postintervention. Change in self-compassion predicted postintervention perceived stress (β = -.44, t = -5.06, p < .001), but change in mindfulness did not predict postintervention perceived stress (β = -.04, t = -.41, p = .68). These results indicate that a community-based mindfulness training program can lead to reduced levels of psychological stress. Mindfulness training programs such as MAPs may offer a promising approach for general public health promotion through improving stress management in the urban community.

Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology

PubMed Central

Stillman, Richard A.; Railsback, Steven F.; Giske, Jarl; Berger, Uta; Grimm, Volker

2014-01-01

Ecologists urgently need a better ability to predict how environmental change affects biodiversity. We examine individual-based ecology (IBE), a research paradigm that promises better a predictive ability by using individual-based models (IBMs) to represent ecological dynamics as arising from how individuals interact with their environment and with each other. A key advantage of IBMs is that the basis for predictions—fitness maximization by individual organisms—is more general and reliable than the empirical relationships that other models depend on. Case studies illustrate the usefulness and predictive success of long-term IBE programs. The pioneering programs had three phases: conceptualization, implementation, and diversification. Continued validation of models runs throughout these phases. The breakthroughs that make IBE more productive include standards for describing and validating IBMs, improved and standardized theory for individual traits and behavior, software tools, and generalized instead of system-specific IBMs. We provide guidelines for pursuing IBE and a vision for future IBE research. PMID:26955076

Quantifying the importance of patch-specific changes in habitat to metapopulation viability of an endangered songbird.

PubMed

Horne, Jon S; Strickler, Katherine M; Alldredge, Mathew

2011-10-01

A growing number of programs seek to facilitate species conservation using incentive-based mechanisms. Recently, a market-based incentive program for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Dendroica chrysoparia) was implemented on a trial basis at Fort Hood, an Army training post in Texas, USA. Under this program, recovery credits accumulated by Fort Hood through contracts with private landowners are used to offset unintentional loss of breeding habitat of Golden-cheeked Warblers within the installation. Critical to successful implementation of such programs is the ability to value, in terms of changes to overall species viability, both habitat loss and habitat restoration or protection. In this study, we sought to answer two fundamental questions: Given the same amount of change in breeding habitat, does the change in some patches have a greater effect on metapopulation persistence than others? And if so, can characteristics of a patch (e.g., size or spatial location) be used to predict how the metapopulation will respond to these changes? To answer these questions, we describe an approach for using sensitivity analysis of a metapopulation projection model to predict how changes to specific habitat patches would affect species viability. We used a stochastic, discrete-time projection model based on stage-specific estimates of survival and fecundity, as well as various assumptions about dispersal among populations. To assess a particular patch's leverage, we quantified how much metapopulation viability was expected to change in response to changing the size of that patch. We then related original patch size and distance from the largest patch to each patch's leverage to determine if general patch characteristics could be used to develop guidelines for valuing changes to patches within a metapopulation. We found that both the characteristic that best predicted patch leverage and the magnitude of the relationship changed under different model scenarios. Thus, we were unable to find a consistent set of relationships, and therefore we emphasize the dangers in relying on general guidelines to assess patch value. Instead, we provide an approach that can be used to quantitatively evaluate patch value and identify critical needs for future research.

AUTO-MUTE 2.0: A Portable Framework with Enhanced Capabilities for Predicting Protein Functional Consequences upon Mutation.

PubMed

Masso, Majid; Vaisman, Iosif I

2014-01-01

The AUTO-MUTE 2.0 stand-alone software package includes a collection of programs for predicting functional changes to proteins upon single residue substitutions, developed by combining structure-based features with trained statistical learning models. Three of the predictors evaluate changes to protein stability upon mutation, each complementing a distinct experimental approach. Two additional classifiers are available, one for predicting activity changes due to residue replacements and the other for determining the disease potential of mutations associated with nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs) in human proteins. These five command-line driven tools, as well as all the supporting programs, complement those that run our AUTO-MUTE web-based server. Nevertheless, all the codes have been rewritten and substantially altered for the new portable software, and they incorporate several new features based on user feedback. Included among these upgrades is the ability to perform three highly requested tasks: to run "big data" batch jobs; to generate predictions using modified protein data bank (PDB) structures, and unpublished personal models prepared using standard PDB file formatting; and to utilize NMR structure files that contain multiple models.

Forming, changing, and acting on attitude toward affirmative action programs in employment: a theory-driven approach.

PubMed

Bell, M P; Harrison, D A; McLaughlin, M E

2000-10-01

A model of attitude toward affirmative action programs (AAPs) was applied in 4 studies involving 1,622 participants. In Study 1, attributes people tacitly associate with AAPs were identified by open-ended elicitation. Using those attributes, an instrument was developed and administered in Studies 2, 3, and 4. In those studies, a multiplicative composite of beliefs and evaluations about the AAP attributes predicted AAP attitude, consistent with M. Fishbein and I. Ajzen's (1975) theory of reasoned action. Demographic effects on AAP attitude were partially mediated by this composite. In Studies 3 and 4, an experimental manipulation of AAP information was successful in changing AAP attitude, but in a way that polarized existing demographic differences. Study 4 also showed that AAP attitude and subjective norm jointly and uniquely predicted intentions to perform AAP-related behaviors. Intentions predicted the actual behavior of mailing postcards to political representatives reflecting participants' support for AAPs.

Assessment of the Effects of High-Speed Aircraft in the Stratosphere: 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. Randolph; Anderson, James G.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Brock, Charles A.; Brune, William H.; Cohen, Ronald C.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Newman, Paul A.; Rodriquez, Jose M.; Stolarski, Richard S.;

Assessment of the Effects of High-Speed Aircraft in the Stratosphere: 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. Randolph; Anderson, James G.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Brock, Charles A.; Brune, William H.; Cohen, Ronald C.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Newman, Paul A.; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Stolarski, Richard S.;

YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGES IN LUNG FUNCTION IN INDIVIDUALS WITH CYSTIC FIBROSIS

PubMed Central

Liou, Theodore G.; Elkin, Eric P.; Pasta, David J.; Jacobs, Joan R.; Konstan, Michael W.; Morgan, Wayne J.; Wagener, Jeffrey S.

2014-01-01

Background We examined the year-to-year change in FEV1 for individuals and the overall cystic fibrosis population to better understand how individual trends may differ from population trends. Methods We calculated individual yearly changes using the largest annual FEV1 percent predicted (FEV1%) measurement in 20,644 patients (6–45 years old) included in the Epidemiologic Study of Cystic Fibrosis. We calculated yearly population changes using age-specific medians. Results FEV1% predicted decreased 1–3 points per year for individuals, with maximal decreases in 14–15 year olds. Population changes agreed with individual changes up to age 15; however after age 30, yearly population change approximated zero while individual FEV1% predicted decreases were 1–2 points per year. Conclusions Adolescents have the greatest FEV1% predicted decreases; however. loss of FEV1 is a persistent risk in 6–45 year old CF patients. Recognizing individual year-to-year changes may improve patient-specific care and may suggest new methods for measuring program quality. PMID:20471331

An Overview of the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS) and the North American Water Program (NAWP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houser, P. R.

2014-12-01

NEWS: 10 years ago, NASA established the NASA Energy and Water-cycle Study (NEWS), whose long-term grand challenge is to document and enable improved, observationally based, predictions of water and energy cycle consequences of Earth system variability and change. The NEWS program builds upon existing NASA-supported basic research in atmospheric physics and dynamics, radiation, climate modeling, and terrestrial hydrology. While these NASA programs fund research activities that address individual aspects of the global energy and water cycles, they are not specifically designed to generate a coordinated result. NEWS developed the first coordinated attempt to describe the complete global energy and water cycle using existing and forthcoming satellite and ground based observations, and laying the foundation for essential NEWS developments in model representations of atmospheric energy and water exchange processes. This comprehensive energy and water data analysis program exploited crucial datasets, some requiring complete re-processing, and new satellite measurements. NAWP: Dramatically changing climates has had an indelible impact on North America's water crisis. To decisively address these challenges, we recommend that NAWP coalesce an interdisciplinary, international and interagency effort to make significant contributions to continental- to decision-scale hydroclimate science and solutions. By entraining, integrating and coordinating the vast array of interdisciplinary observational and prediction resources available, NAWP will significantly advance skill in predicting, assessing and managing variability and changes in North American water resources. We adopt three challenges to organize NAWP efforts. The first deals with developing a scientific basis and tools for mitigating and adapting to changes in the water supply-demand balance. The second challenge is benchmarking; to use incomplete and uncertain observations to assess water storage and quality dynamics, and to characterize the information content of water cycle predictions in a way that allows for model improvement. The final challenge is to establish clear pathways to inform water managers, practitioners and decision makers about newly developed tools, observations and research results.

Pain sensitivity and torque used during measurement predicts change in range of motion at the knee.

PubMed

Bishop, Mark D; George, Steven Z

2017-01-01

To determine the extent to which changes in knee range of motion (ROM) after a stretching program are related to sensory factors at the time of testing and the amount of force used during the measurement of ROM, rather than changes in soft-tissue properties. Randomized, single-blind design. Participants were randomly assigned to a control or stretching group. Research laboratory. Forty-four healthy volunteers (22.8±2.8 years of age; 23 men). The stretching group undertook static stretching twice a day for 8 weeks. The control group continued with routine activity, but was discouraged from starting a flexibility program. ROM and tissue extensibility was assessed using a Biodex3 dynamometer, and ratings of thermal pain were collected at baseline and at 4 and 8 weeks by an examiner blinded to group assignment. Multilevel modeling was used to examine predictors of ROM across time. The stretching group showed a 6% increase, and the control group had a 2% increase, in ROM over the 8-week program. However, when fixed and random effects were tested in a complete model, the group assignment was not significant. End-point torque during ROM testing ( p =0.021) and the ratings in response to thermal testing ( p <0.001) were significant, however. ROM measured in a testing session was not predicted by assignment to a stretching program. Rather, ROM was predicted by the ratings of thermal stimuli and the peak torque used to apply the stretch.

A genomic lifespan program that reorganises the young adult brain is targeted in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Skene, Nathan G; Roy, Marcia; Grant, Seth Gn

2017-09-12

The genetic mechanisms regulating the brain and behaviour across the lifespan are poorly understood. We found that lifespan transcriptome trajectories describe a calendar of gene regulatory events in the brain of humans and mice. Transcriptome trajectories defined a sequence of gene expression changes in neuronal, glial and endothelial cell-types, which enabled prediction of age from tissue samples. A major lifespan landmark was the peak change in trajectories occurring in humans at 26 years and in mice at 5 months of age. This species-conserved peak was delayed in females and marked a reorganization of expression of synaptic and schizophrenia-susceptibility genes. The lifespan calendar predicted the characteristic age of onset in young adults and sex differences in schizophrenia. We propose a genomic program generates a lifespan calendar of gene regulation that times age-dependent molecular organization of the brain and mutations that interrupt the program in young adults cause schizophrenia.

"She Finally Smiles … for Real": Reducing Depressive Symptoms and Bolstering Resilience Through a Camp Intervention for LGBTQ Youth.

PubMed

Gillig, Traci K; Miller, Lynn C; Cox, Courtney M

2017-11-29

While summer camps are a recognized evidence-based strategy for building social and emotional skills among youth (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2009), no known studies have evaluated the effects of camp programming for LGBTQ youth in the United States. This pilot study evaluates a novel program (Brave Trails) for LGBTQ youth ages 12 to 20, using a pre-post camper survey (N = 56) and a post-camp parent survey (N = 54). Results show campers experienced increases in identity affirmation and hope and a reduction in depressive symptoms. Regression analyses found changes in identity affirmation predicted reductions in depressive symptoms and increases in resilience. Additionally, campers' experience of key camp programming features predicted changes in depressive symptoms. Findings from the parent survey were consistent with camper survey results. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Third National Aeronautics and Space Administration Weather and climate program science review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreins, E. R. (Editor)

1977-01-01

Research results of developing experimental and prototype operational systems, sensors, and space facilities for monitoring, and understanding the atmosphere are reported. Major aspects include: (1) detection, monitoring, and prediction of severe storms; (2) improvement of global forecasting; and (3) monitoring and prediction of climate change.

Technically Speaking: Why Should You Use Virtual Grower?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Virtual Grower is a free, easy-to-use software program that every grower who heats their greenhouse should install on their computer. The program enables growers to simulate their own greenhouse and predict how changes or investments could impact the growing environment, heating costs, and crop res...

Geochemical challenge to earthquake prediction.

PubMed Central

Wakita, H

1996-01-01

The current status of geochemical and groundwater observations for earthquake prediction in Japan is described. The development of the observations is discussed in relation to the progress of the earthquake prediction program in Japan. Three major findings obtained from our recent studies are outlined. (i) Long-term radon observation data over 18 years at the SKE (Suikoen) well indicate that the anomalous radon change before the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake can with high probability be attributed to precursory changes. (ii) It is proposed that certain sensitive wells exist which have the potential to detect precursory changes. (iii) The appearance and nonappearance of coseismic radon drops at the KSM (Kashima) well reflect changes in the regional stress state of an observation area. In addition, some preliminary results of chemical changes of groundwater prior to the 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken nanbu) earthquake are presented. PMID:11607665

Detection of meso-micro scale surface features based on microcanonical multifractal formalism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yuanyuan; Chen, Wei; Xie, Tao; Perrie, William

2018-01-01

Not Available Project supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFC1401007), the Global Change Research Program of China (Grant No. 2015CB953901), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41776181), the Canadian Program on Energy Research and Development (OERD), Canadian Space Agency’s SWOT Program, and the Canadian Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response Network (MEOPAR).

A new version of the helicopter aural detection program, ICHIN

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, A. W.; Smith, C. D.; Shepherd, K. P.; Sullivan, B. M.

1986-01-01

NASA Langley Research Center personnel have conducted an evaluation of the helicopter aural detection program I Can Hear It Now (ICHIN version-5). This was accomplished using flight noise data of five helicopters, obtained from a joint NASA and U.S. Army acoustics measurement program. The evaluation consisted of presenting the noise data to a jury of 20 subjects and to the ICHIN-5 program. A comparative study was then made of the detection distances determined by the jury and predicted by ICHIN-5. This report presents the changes made in the ICHIN-5 program as a result of this comparative study. The changes represent current psychoacoustics and propagation knowledge.

Prediction-based dynamic load-sharing heuristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goswami, Kumar K.; Devarakonda, Murthy; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

1993-01-01

The authors present dynamic load-sharing heuristics that use predicted resource requirements of processes to manage workloads in a distributed system. A previously developed statistical pattern-recognition method is employed for resource prediction. While nonprediction-based heuristics depend on a rapidly changing system status, the new heuristics depend on slowly changing program resource usage patterns. Furthermore, prediction-based heuristics can be more effective since they use future requirements rather than just the current system state. Four prediction-based heuristics, two centralized and two distributed, are presented. Using trace driven simulations, they are compared against random scheduling and two effective nonprediction based heuristics. Results show that the prediction-based centralized heuristics achieve up to 30 percent better response times than the nonprediction centralized heuristic, and that the prediction-based distributed heuristics achieve up to 50 percent improvements relative to their nonprediction counterpart.

Department of Defense Food service Program Needs Contracting and Management Improvements.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-10-20

in the ration, changes in consumer preferences , and advances in food technology, we believe composition changes could occur which would reduce the...accurately predict consumer preferences . The computer model which the DoD has developed to implement the proposed changes to Title 10 U.S.C. is based upon more

Career Development Programs in the Workplace. Information Series No. 333.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slavenski, Lynn; Buckner, Marilyn

A number of factors drive the current trend toward career development in the workplace. They include the need to predict personnel needs, social and demographic trends, changing nature of work, changing types of jobs, equity, productivity, technological change, and organizational philosophies. Career development is important at every step in the…

The Brand's PREACH Model: Predicting Readiness to Engage African American Churches in Health.

PubMed

Brand, Dorine J; Alston, Reginald J

2017-09-01

Despite many attempts to reduce health disparities, health professionals face obstacles in improving poor health outcomes within the African American (AA) community. To promote change for improved health measures, it is important to implement culturally tailored programming through a trusted institution, such as the AA church. While churches have the potential to play an important role in positively impacting health among AAs, it is unclear what attributes are necessary to predict success or failure for health promotion within these institutions. The purpose of this study was to create a model, the Brand's PREACH ( Predicting Readiness to Engage African American Churches in Health) Model, to predict the readiness of AA churches to engage in health promotion programming. Thirty-six semistructured key informant interviews were conducted with 12 pastors, 12 health leaders, and 12 congregants to gain information on the relationship between church infrastructure (physical structure, personnel, funding, and social/cultural support), readiness, and health promotion programming. The findings revealed that church infrastructure has an association with and will predict the readiness of a church to engage in health promotion programming. The ability to identify readiness early on will be useful for developing, implementing, and evaluating faith-based interventions, in partnership with churches, which is a key factor for sustainable and effective programs.

Estimating Acceptability of Financial Health Incentives.

PubMed

Bigsby, Elisabeth; Seitz, Holli H; Halpern, Scott D; Volpp, Kevin; Cappella, Joseph N

2017-08-01

A growing body of evidence suggests that financial incentives can influence health behavior change, but research on the public acceptability of these programs and factors that predict public support have been limited. A representative sample of U.S. adults ( N = 526) were randomly assigned to receive an incentive program description in which the funding source of the program (public or private funding) and targeted health behavior (smoking cessation, weight loss, or colonoscopy) were manipulated. Outcome variables were attitude toward health incentives and allocation of hypothetical funding for incentive programs. Support was highest for privately funded programs. Support for incentives was also higher among ideologically liberal participants than among conservative participants. Demographics and health history differentially predicted attitude and hypothetical funding toward incentives. Incentive programs in the United States are more likely to be acceptable to the public if they are funded by private companies.

Parent Involvement in Head Start and Children's Development: Indirect Effects Through Parenting.

PubMed

Ansari, Arya; Gershoff, Elizabeth

2016-04-01

The authors examined the extent to which parent involvement in Head Start programs predicted changes in both parent and child outcomes over time, using a nationally representative sample of 1,020 three-year-old children over 3 waves of the Family and Child Experiences Survey. Center policies that promote involvement predicted greater parent involvement, and parents who were more involved in Head Start centers demonstrated increased cognitive stimulation and decreased spanking and controlling behaviors. In turn, these changes in parenting behaviors were associated with gains in children's academic and behavioral skills. These findings suggest that Head Start programs should do even more to facilitate parent involvement because it can serve as an important means for promoting both parent and child outcomes.

Estimating Acceptability of Financial Health Incentives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bigsby, Elisabeth; Seitz, Holli H.; Halpern, Scott D.; Volpp, Kevin; Cappella, Joseph N.

2017-01-01

A growing body of evidence suggests that financial incentives can influence health behavior change, but research on the public acceptability of these programs and factors that predict public support have been limited. A representative sample of U.S. adults (N = 526) were randomly assigned to receive an incentive program description in which the…

Using a Programmable Calculator to Teach Teophylline Pharmacokinetics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Closson, Richard Grant

1981-01-01

A calculator program for a Texas Instruments Model 59 to predict serum theophylline concentrations is described. The program accommodates the input of multiple dose times at irregular intervals, clearance changes due to concurrent patient diseases and age less than 17 years. The calculations for five hypothetical patients are given. (Author/MLW)

Behavioral and Environmental Characteristics of Delinquent Youths as Related to Recidivisim.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chase, Mary M.

This study examined the usefulness of certain sociodemographic and psychological measures for explaining and predicting postrelease recidivism among youths treated in the New York State Division for Youth rehabilitation programs during 1971-1972. Changes in hostile behaviors were related most to program structure, but passive and work-related…

Readiness to Change as a Predictor of Treatment Engagement and Outcome for Partner Violent Men.

PubMed

Maldonado, Ana I; Murphy, Christopher M

2018-05-01

Resistance to change has been long recognized as a barrier to successful intervention for partner violent individuals. Using archival data from a community-based intimate partner violence (IPV) intervention program, the current study investigated readiness to change as a predictor of treatment engagement and outcome in cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for IPV, and examined whether court referral status, antisocial personality characteristics, and borderline personality characteristics moderate these associations. During program intake, male IPV perpetrators ( N = 195) provided structured interview data on demographics and referral source, and self-report data on readiness to change, borderline personality traits, and antisocial personality traits. During group CBT, participants and their therapists completed measures of the working alliance, and the therapists completed ratings of compliance with behavior change homework assignments. Criminal recidivism data were gathered from public records for 2 years after scheduled completion of treatment. Readiness to change significantly predicted client ratings of the working alliance, but not therapist ratings of the working alliance, CBT homework compliance, or criminal recidivism. Court referral status moderated predictive associations between readiness to change and working alliance ratings, and borderline and antisocial characteristics moderated predictive associations between readiness to change and working alliance as well as criminal recidivism. Interestingly, readiness to change is a stronger predictor of positive treatment response for court- versus self-referred individuals and for those with either very low or very high levels of borderline and antisocial characteristics. Hence, strategies to enhance motivation to change may be particularly be important for IPV perpetrators with these characteristics.

Improvements in Resilience, Stress, and Somatic Symptoms Following Online Resilience Training

PubMed Central

Smith, Brad; Shatté, Andrew; Perlman, Adam; Siers, Michael; Lynch, Wendy D.

2018-01-01

Objective: To determine if participation in an online resilience program impacts resilience, stress, and somatic symptoms. Methods: Approximately 600 enrollees in the meQuilibrium resilience program received a series of brief, individually prescribed video, and text training modules in a user-friendly format. Regression models tested how time in the program affected change in resilience from baseline and how changes in resilience affected change in stress and reported symptoms. Results: A significant dose–response was detected, where increases in the time spent in training corresponded to greater improvements in resilience. Degree of change in resilience predicted the magnitude of reduction in stress and symptoms. Participants with the lowest resilience level at baseline experienced greater improvements. Conclusion: Interaction with the online resilience training program had a positive effect on resilience, stress, and symptoms in proportion to the time of use. PMID:28820863

Aura Science and Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilsenrath, E.; Schoeberl, M.; Douglass, A.; Anderson, J.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The EOS-Aura Mission is designed to answer three basic questions concerning the Earth's atmosphere: 1) Is ozone recovering as predicted, 2) is air quality getting worse, and 3) how is climate changing? Aura's four instruments work synergistically and are dedicated to answering these questions. These questions relate to NASA Earth Science Enterprise's overall strategic questions, which seek to understand the consequences of climate change for human civilization and determine if these changes can be predicted. NASA supports an ongoing research and analysis program, which is conducted independently and in support of satellite missions. The research program conducts several on-going field campaigns employing aircraft, balloons, and ground based systems. These campaigns have focused on exploring processes in the tropics, high latitudes, and continental outflow to explain the chemistry and transport in the troposphere and stratosphere and how these regions interact. NASA is now studying how the Aura mission and requirements of the research and analysis program might be merged to achieve its strategic goals related to global atmospheric chemistry changes. In addition, NASA field campaign resources will be folded into Aura's validation requirements. Aura validation requires correlative measurements throughout the troposphere and stratosphere under a range of observing and geophysical conditions. Because of the recent launches of Envisat and other smaller international chemistry satellites, the NASA program plans to collaborate with European space agencies in developing a series of campaigns that will provide continuity between those satellites missions and Aura.

Pulse Rate and Transit Time Analysis to Predict Hypotension Events After Spinal Anesthesia During Programmed Cesarean Labor.

PubMed

Bolea, Juan; Lázaro, Jesús; Gil, Eduardo; Rovira, Eva; Remartínez, José M; Laguna, Pablo; Pueyo, Esther; Navarro, Augusto; Bailón, Raquel

2017-09-01

Prophylactic treatment has been proved to reduce hypotension incidence after spinal anesthesia during cesarean labor. However, the use of pharmacological prophylaxis could carry out undesirable side-effects on mother and fetus. Thus, the prediction of hypotension becomes an important challenge. Hypotension events are hypothesized to be related to a malfunctioning of autonomic nervous system (ANS) regulation of blood pressure. In this work, ANS responses to positional changes of 51 pregnant women programmed for a cesarean labor were explored for hypotension prediction. Lateral and supine decubitus, and sitting position were considered while electrocardiographic and pulse photoplethysmographic signals were recorded. Features based on heart rate variability, pulse rate variability (PRV) and pulse transit time (PTT) analysis were used in a logistic regression classifier. The results showed that PRV irregularity changes, assessed by approximate entropy, from supine to lateral decubitus, and standard deviation of PTT in supine decubitus were found as the combination of features that achieved the best classification results sensitivity of 76%, specificity of 70% and accuracy of 72%, being normotensive the positive class. Peripheral regulation and blood pressure changes, measured by PRV and PTT analysis, could help to predict hypotension events reducing prophylactic side-effects in the low-risk population.

Intensive Evening Outpatient Treatment for Patients With Personality Dysfunction: Early Group Process, Change in Interpersonal Distress, and Longer-Term Social Functioning.

PubMed

Joyce, Anthony S; Ogrodniczuk, John S; Kealy, David

2017-01-01

Entrenched interpersonal difficulties are a defining feature of those with personality dysfunction. Evening treatment-a comprehensive and intensive group-oriented outpatient therapy program-offers a unique approach to delivering mental health services to patients with chronic personality dysfunction. This study assessed change in interpersonal problems as a key outcome, the relevance of such change to future social functioning, and the influence of early group processes on this change. Consecutively admitted patients (N = 75) to a group-oriented evening treatment program were recruited; the majority were diagnosed with personality disorder. Therapy outcome was represented by scores on the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems. Follow-up outcome was represented by the global score of the Social Adjustment Scale. Group climate, group cohesion, and the therapeutic alliance were examined as process variables. Patients experienced substantial reduction in distress associated with interpersonal problems; early process factors that reflected a cohesive and engaged group climate and stronger therapeutic alliance were predictive of this outcome. Improvement in interpersonal distress was predictive of global social functioning six months later. The therapeutic alliance most strongly accounted for change in interpersonal problems at posttreatment and social functioning at follow-up. A comprehensive and integrated outpatient group therapy program, offered in the evening to accommodate patients' real-life demands, can facilitate considerable improvement in interpersonal problems, which in turn influences later social functioning. The intensity and intimacy of peer interactions in the therapy groups, and a strong alliance with the program therapists, are likely interacting factors that are particularly important to facilitate such change.

Development of a Land Use Mapping and Monitoring Protocol for the High Plains Region: A Multitemporal Remote Sensing Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Kevin P.; Nellis, M. Duane

1996-01-01

The purpose of this project was to develop a practical protocol that employs multitemporal remotely sensed imagery, integrated with environmental parameters to model and monitor agricultural and natural resources in the High Plains Region of the United States. The value of this project would be extended throughout the region via workshops targeted at carefully selected audiences and designed to transfer remote sensing technology and the methods and applications developed. Implementation of such a protocol using remotely sensed satellite imagery is critical for addressing many issues of regional importance, including: (1) Prediction of rural land use/land cover (LULC) categories within a region; (2) Use of rural LULC maps for successive years to monitor change; (3) Crop types derived from LULC maps as important inputs to water consumption models; (4) Early prediction of crop yields; (5) Multi-date maps of crop types to monitor patterns related to crop change; (6) Knowledge of crop types to monitor condition and improve prediction of crop yield; (7) More precise models of crop types and conditions to improve agricultural economic forecasts; (8;) Prediction of biomass for estimating vegetation production, soil protection from erosion forces, nonpoint source pollution, wildlife habitat quality and other related factors; (9) Crop type and condition information to more accurately predict production of biogeochemicals such as CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases that are inputs to global climate models; (10) Provide information regarding limiting factors (i.e., economic constraints of pumping, fertilizing, etc.) used in conjunction with other factors, such as changes in climate for predicting changes in rural LULC; (11) Accurate prediction of rural LULC used to assess the effectiveness of government programs such as the U.S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Conservation Reserve Program; and (12) Prediction of water demand based on rural LULC that can be related to rates of draw-down of underground water supplies.

The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - DYNAMO Recent Project Advancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.; Higgins, W.

2013-12-01

The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within the Earth System Science (ESS) Division at NOAA's Climate Program Office. Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO): The Indian Ocean is one of Earth's most sensitive regions because the interactions between ocean and atmosphere there have a discernable effect on global climate patterns. The tropical weather that brews in that region can move eastward along the equator and reverberate around the globe, shaping weather and climate in far-off places. The vehicle for this variability is a phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. The MJO, which originates over the Indian Ocean roughly every 30 to 90 days, is known to influence the Asian and Australian monsoons. It can also enhance hurricane activity in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, trigger torrential rainfall along the west coast of North America, and affect the onset of El Niño. CVP-funded scientists participated in the DYNAMO field campaign in 2011-12. Results from this international campaign are expected to improve researcher's insights into this influential phenomenon. A better understanding of the processes governing MJO is an essential step toward improving their representations in numerical models and improving MJO simulation and prediction. Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized in this poster.

Erratum: Raman linewidths and rotationally inelastic collision rates in nitrogen [J. Chem. Phys. 98, 257 (1993)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Sheldon

1993-09-01

A computer program error led to erroneous results in the titled paper. Corrected generalized IOS cross sections are significantly changed, especially at lower collision energies. These changes tend to cancel in predicted Raman linewidths; there is a systematic increase of 10-15 %, changing quantitative, but not qualitative, comparisons with experimental data.

Comparative Theories of Social Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peter, Hollis W.; And Others

This symposium report contains various statements of the theory of change and societal growth and maintenance viewed from the perspectives of major social disciplines. Comparative theories in these areas can provide guidelines for predicting, planning, and carrying out social development programs. The theme of the symposium was the problem of…

A comparison between the clinical significance and growth mixture modelling early change methods at predicting negative outcomes.

PubMed

Flood, Nicola; Page, Andrew; Hooke, Geoff

2018-05-03

Routine outcome monitoring benefits treatment by identifying potential no change and deterioration. The present study compared two methods of identifying early change and their ability to predict negative outcomes on self-report symptom and wellbeing measures. 1467 voluntary day patients participated in a 10-day group Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) program and completed the symptom and wellbeing measures daily. Early change, as defined by (a) the clinical significance method and (b) longitudinal modelling, was compared on each measure. Early change, as defined by the simpler clinical significance method, was superior at predicting negative outcomes than longitudinal modelling. The longitudinal modelling method failed to detect a group of deteriorated patients, and agreement between the early change methods and the final unchanged outcome was higher for the clinical significance method. Therapists could use the clinical significance early change method during treatment to alert them of patients at risk for negative outcomes, which in turn could allow therapists to prevent those negative outcomes from occurring.

Predicting Improvement After a Bystander Program for the Prevention of Sexual and Dating Violence.

PubMed

Hines, Denise A; Palm Reed, Kathleen M

2015-07-01

Although evidence suggests that bystander prevention programs are promising interventions for decreasing sexual violence and dating violence on college campuses, there have been no studies to date evaluating moderators of bystander program effectiveness. The current study evaluates whether different demographic characteristics, attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors at pretest predict change over a 6-month follow-up for students who participated in a bystander prevention program. Participants in the three assessments (pretest, posttest, 6-month follow-up) included 296 college students who were mandated to attend a bystander program during their first year orientation. Analyses showed that with few exceptions, the bystander program worked best for students who were most at risk given their pretest demographics and levels of attitudes condoning dating violence and sexual violence, bystander efficacy, and bystander behaviors. Results are discussed in terms of suggestions for future research. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

A dynamic model for plant growth: validation study under changing temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wann, M.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Raper CD, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1984-01-01

A dynamic simulation model to describe vegetative growth of plants, for which some functions and parameter values have been estimated previously by optimization search techniques and numerical experimentation based on data from constant temperature experiments, is validated under conditions of changing temperatures. To test the predictive capacity of the model, dry matter accumulation in the leaves, stems, and roots of tobacco plants (Nicotiana tabacum L.) was measured at 2- or 3-day intervals during a 5-week period when temperatures in controlled-environment rooms were programmed for changes at weekly and daily intervals and in ascending or descending sequences within a range of 14 to 34 degrees C. Simulations of dry matter accumulation and distribution were carried out using the programmed changes for experimental temperatures and compared with the measured values. The agreement between measured and predicted values was close and indicates that the temperature-dependent functional forms derived from constant-temperature experiments are adequate for modelling plant growth responses to conditions of changing temperatures with switching intervals as short as 1 day.

Propeller aircraft interior noise model. II - Scale-model and flight-test comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willis, C. M.; Mayes, W. H.

1987-01-01

A program for predicting the sound levels inside propeller driven aircraft arising from sidewall transmission of airborne exterior noise is validated through comparisons of predictions with both scale-model test results and measurements obtained in flight tests on a turboprop aircraft. The program produced unbiased predictions for the case of the scale-model tests, with a standard deviation of errors of about 4 dB. For the case of the flight tests, the predictions revealed a bias of 2.62-4.28 dB (depending upon whether or not the data for the fourth harmonic were included) and the standard deviation of the errors ranged between 2.43 and 4.12 dB. The analytical model is shown to be capable of taking changes in the flight environment into account.

Changes in sunburn and tanning attitudes among lifeguards over a summer season.

PubMed

Hiemstra, Marieke; Glanz, Karen; Nehl, Eric

2012-03-01

Skin cancer is one of the most common cancers in the United States. Lifeguards are at increased risk of excessive sun exposure and sunburn. We sought to examine changes in: (1) sunburn frequency over a summer while controlling for sun exposure, sun protection habits, and participation in a skin cancer prevention program; and (2) tanning attitudes while controlling for participation in the program. Participants in this study were lifeguards (n = 3014) at swimming pools participating in the Pool Cool program in 2005. Lifeguards completed surveys at the beginning and end of the summer. Sequential regression analyses were used to assess changes in sunburn frequency and tanning attitudes. Sunburn frequency decreased between baseline and follow-up. Having a sunburn over the summer was significantly predicted by baseline sunburn history, ethnicity, skin cancer risk, and sun exposure. The tanning attitude, "People are more attractive if they have a tan," was significantly predicted from baseline tanning attitude and ethnicity. The second tanning attitude, "It helps to have a good base suntan," was significantly predicted by baseline tanning attitude, ethnicity, basic/enhanced group, and moderate skin cancer risk. Self-reported data and limited generalizability to lifeguards at other outdoor pools are limitations. The findings showed that previous sunburn history is an important predictor of sunburn prospectively. In addition, a more risky tanning attitude is an important predictor of future attitudes toward tanning. Active involvement in targeted prevention programs may help to increase preventive behavior and health risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in sunburn and tanning attitudes among lifeguards over a summer season

PubMed Central

Hiemstra, Marieke; Glanz, Karen; Nehl, Eric

2013-01-01

Background Skin cancer is one of the most common cancers in the United States. Lifeguards are at increased risk of excessive sun exposure and sunburn. Objectives We sought to examine changes in: (1) sunburn frequency over a summer while controlling for sun exposure, sun protection habits, and participation in a skin cancer prevention program; and (2) tanning attitudes while controlling for participation in the program. Methods Participants in this study were lifeguards (n = 3014) at swimming pools participating in the Pool Cool program in 2005. Lifeguards completed surveys at the beginning and end of the summer. Sequential regression analyses were used to assess changes in sunburn frequency and tanning attitudes. Results Sunburn frequency decreased between baseline and follow-up. Having a sunburn over the summer was significantly predicted by baseline sunburn history, ethnicity, skin cancer risk, and sun exposure. The tanning attitude, “People are more attractive if they have a tan,” was significantly predicted from baseline tanning attitude and ethnicity. The second tanning attitude, “It helps to have a good base suntan,” was significantly predicted by baseline tanning attitude, ethnicity, basic/enhanced group, and moderate skin cancer risk. Limitations Self-reported data and limited generalizability to lifeguards at other outdoor pools are limitations. Conclusion The findings showed that previous sunburn history is an important predictor of sunburn prospectively. In addition, a more risky tanning attitude is an important predictor of future attitudes toward tanning. Active involvement in targeted prevention programs may help to increase preventive behavior and health risk reduction. PMID:21745696

Parent Involvement in Head Start and Children’s Development: Indirect Effects Through Parenting

PubMed Central

Ansari, Arya; Gershoff, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

The authors examined the extent to which parent involvement in Head Start programs predicted changes in both parent and child outcomes over time, using a nationally representative sample of 1,020 three-year-old children over 3 waves of the Family and Child Experiences Survey. Center policies that promote involvement predicted greater parent involvement, and parents who were more involved in Head Start centers demonstrated increased cognitive stimulation and decreased spanking and controlling behaviors. In turn, these changes in parenting behaviors were associated with gains in children’s academic and behavioral skills. These findings suggest that Head Start programs should do even more to facilitate parent involvement because it can serve as an important means for promoting both parent and child outcomes. PMID:27022200

Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012

PubMed Central

Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W.; Li, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Background Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. Methods We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011–2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Results Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed. PMID:26991658

Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012.

PubMed

Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W; Li, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011-2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed.

Providing culturally competent services for American Indian and Alaska Native veterans to reduce health care disparities.

PubMed

Noe, Timothy D; Kaufman, Carol E; Kaufmann, L Jeanne; Brooks, Elizabeth; Shore, Jay H

2014-09-01

We conducted an exploratory study to determine what organizational characteristics predict the provision of culturally competent services for American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) veterans in Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health facilities. In 2011 to 2012, we adapted the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment (ORCA) for a survey of 27 VA facilities in the Western Region to assess organizational readiness and capacity to adopt and implement native-specific services and to profile the availability of AI/AN veteran programs and interest in and resources for such programs. Several ORCA subscales (Program Needs, Leader's Practices, and Communication) statistically significantly predicted whether VA staff perceived that their facilities were meeting the needs of AI/AN veterans. However, none predicted greater implementation of native-specific services. Our findings may aid in developing strategies for adopting and implementing promising native-specific programs and services for AI/AN veterans, and may be generalizable for other veteran groups.

Providing Culturally Competent Services for American Indian and Alaska Native Veterans to Reduce Health Care Disparities

PubMed Central

Kaufman, Carol E.; Kaufmann, L. Jeanne; Brooks, Elizabeth; Shore, Jay H.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We conducted an exploratory study to determine what organizational characteristics predict the provision of culturally competent services for American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) veterans in Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health facilities. Methods. In 2011 to 2012, we adapted the Organizational Readiness to Change Assessment (ORCA) for a survey of 27 VA facilities in the Western Region to assess organizational readiness and capacity to adopt and implement native-specific services and to profile the availability of AI/AN veteran programs and interest in and resources for such programs. Results. Several ORCA subscales (Program Needs, Leader’s Practices, and Communication) statistically significantly predicted whether VA staff perceived that their facilities were meeting the needs of AI/AN veterans. However, none predicted greater implementation of native-specific services. Conclusions. Our findings may aid in developing strategies for adopting and implementing promising native-specific programs and services for AI/AN veterans, and may be generalizable for other veteran groups. PMID:25100420

Geography program, design, structure and operational strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, R. H.

1970-01-01

The geography program is designed to move systematically toward a capability to increase remote sensing data into operational systems for monitoring land use and related environmental change. The problems of environmental imbalance arising from rapid urbanization and other dramatic changes in land use are considered. These overall problems translate into working level problems of establishing the validity of various sensor-data combinations that will best obtain the regional land use and environmental information. The goal, to better understand, predict, and assist policy makers to regulate urban and regional land use changes resulting from population growth and technological advancement, is put forth.

Advance or Retreat? Early Childhood Services in the Eighties.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Alisa

1981-01-01

Predicts that changing sociocultural patterns will affect services for Australian children in the 1980s. Among topics discussed are demographic changes: a decreased birth rate and an increased number of working mothers in fatherless families at the poverty level. Compensatory education programs and family policy development in Western societies…

Prediction of protein interaction hot spots using rough set-based multiple criteria linear programming.

PubMed

Chen, Ruoying; Zhang, Zhiwang; Wu, Di; Zhang, Peng; Zhang, Xinyang; Wang, Yong; Shi, Yong

2011-01-21

Protein-protein interactions are fundamentally important in many biological processes and it is in pressing need to understand the principles of protein-protein interactions. Mutagenesis studies have found that only a small fraction of surface residues, known as hot spots, are responsible for the physical binding in protein complexes. However, revealing hot spots by mutagenesis experiments are usually time consuming and expensive. In order to complement the experimental efforts, we propose a new computational approach in this paper to predict hot spots. Our method, Rough Set-based Multiple Criteria Linear Programming (RS-MCLP), integrates rough sets theory and multiple criteria linear programming to choose dominant features and computationally predict hot spots. Our approach is benchmarked by a dataset of 904 alanine-mutated residues and the results show that our RS-MCLP method performs better than other methods, e.g., MCLP, Decision Tree, Bayes Net, and the existing HotSprint database. In addition, we reveal several biological insights based on our analysis. We find that four features (the change of accessible surface area, percentage of the change of accessible surface area, size of a residue, and atomic contacts) are critical in predicting hot spots. Furthermore, we find that three residues (Tyr, Trp, and Phe) are abundant in hot spots through analyzing the distribution of amino acids. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive and Treatment Validity of Life Satisfaction and the Quality of Life Inventory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frisch, Michael B.; Clark, Michelle P.; Rouse, Steven V.; Rudd, M. David; Paweleck, Jennifer K.; Greenstone, Andrew; Kopplin, David A.

2005-01-01

The clinical and positive psychology usefulness of quality of life, well-being, and life satisfaction assessments depends on their ability to predict important outcomes and to detect intervention-related change. These issues were explored in the context of a program of instrument validation for the Quality of Life Inventory (QOLI) involving 3,927…

Proposed comprehensive ototoxicity monitoring program for VA healthcare (COMP-VA)

PubMed Central

Konrad-Martin, Dawn; Reavis, Kelly M.; McMillan, Garnett; Helt, Wendy J.; Dille, Marilyn

2015-01-01

Prevention and rehabilitation of hearing loss and tinnitus, the two most commonly awarded service-connected disabilities, are high priority initiatives in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). At least 4,000 Veterans, most with significant hearing loss, will receive cisplatin this year, with more than half sustaining permanent hearing shift and nearly 40% developing new tinnitus. With improved survivability following cancer treatment, Veterans treated with cisplatin are approached with the dual goals of effective treatment and preserved quality of life. This article describes COMP-VA, a comprehensive ototoxicity monitoring program developed for VA patients receiving cisplatin. The program includes an individualized pretreatment prediction model that identifies the likelihood of hearing shift given cisplatin dose and patient factors. It supports both manual and automated hearing testing with a newly developed portable audiometer capable of performing the recommended procedures on the chemotherapy unit during treatment. It also includes objective methods for identifying outer hair cell changes and predicting audiogram changes using distortion-product otoacoustic emissions. We describe this program of evidence-based ototoxicity monitoring protocols using a case example to give the reader an understanding of how this program would be applied, along with a plan for future work to accomplish the final stages of program development. PMID:24805896

Preview of Our Changing Planet. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2008

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-01

reduce the uncertainty in predictions of the global and regional water cycle and surface climate. Sunlight not reflected back to space provides the...research elements include atmospheric composition, climate variability and change, the global water cycle , land-use and land-cover change, the global...entire planet, and researchers with the ability to better explain observed changes in the climate system. Global Water Cycle – Research associated with

Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region- A project of GRENE-ei programs in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizoguchi, M.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.; Tanaka, K.; Kuwagata, T.

2015-12-01

It is important to predict climate change correctly in regional scale and to build adaptation measures and mitigation measures in the Asian monsoon region where more than 60 % of the world's population are living. The reliability of climate change prediction model is evaluated by the reproducibility of past climate in general. However, because there are many developing countries in the Asian monsoon region, adequate documentations of past climate which are needed to evaluate the climate reproducibility have not been prepared. In addition, at present it is difficult to get information on wide-area agricultural meteorological data which affect the growth of agricultural crops when considering the impact on agriculture of climate. Therefore, we have started a research project entitled "Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region (CAAM)" under the research framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) for the Japanese fiscal years from 2011 to 2015 supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). This project aims to improve the reliability of future climate prediction and to develop the information platform which will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic changes in Asian monsoon regions. What is GRENE?Based on the new growth strategy which was approved by the Cabinet of Japan in June 2010, Green Network of Excellence program (GRENE) has started under MEXT from FY 2011. The objectives of this program are that the domestic leading universities work together strategically and promote a comprehensive human resource development and research of the highest level in the world while sharing research resources and research goals. In the field of environmental information, it is required that universities and research institutions, which are working on issues such as adaptation to climate change, cooperate to promote the utilization of environmental information and to develop human resources while using DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System) which has been built by MEXT.

Anticipatory guidance as a principle of faculty development: managing transition and change.

PubMed

Schor, Nina F; Guillet, Ronnie; McAnarney, Elizabeth R

2011-10-01

Although one cannot anticipate every individual's unique responses to the transitions and changes that regularly occur in academic medicine, a department-wide faculty development program, based on predictable transition points and supporting faculty at all levels, can minimize such negative responses to change as stress and burnout. In 2007, the authors implemented a new, formal faculty development program in the pediatrics department built on the principle of anticipatory guidance, defined as providing guidance in anticipation of future academic events. The primary components of the program are mentoring committees for individual junior faculty, group leadership development and teaching forums for midlevel faculty, and events that focus on life and career changes for senior faculty. Other department-wide activities augment the program, including review of grant submissions, annual review by a senior faculty committee of the progress of National Institutes of Health mentored research (K-) awardees, women faculty luncheons, and discussions about faculty development at regular faculty meetings. The department's faculty also participate in the University of Rochester Medical Center's active faculty development program. Feedback on the faculty development program has been constructive and mainly positive and will serve to guide the continuing evolution of the program.

Manage Your Life Online (MYLO): a pilot trial of a conversational computer-based intervention for problem solving in a student sample.

PubMed

Gaffney, Hannah; Mansell, Warren; Edwards, Rachel; Wright, Jason

2014-11-01

Computerized self-help that has an interactive, conversational format holds several advantages, such as flexibility across presenting problems and ease of use. We designed a new program called MYLO that utilizes the principles of METHOD of Levels (MOL) therapy--based upon Perceptual Control Theory (PCT). We tested the efficacy of MYLO, tested whether the psychological change mechanisms described by PCT mediated its efficacy, and evaluated effects of client expectancy. Forty-eight student participants were randomly assigned to MYLO or a comparison program ELIZA. Participants discussed a problem they were currently experiencing with their assigned program and completed measures of distress, resolution and expectancy preintervention, postintervention and at 2-week follow-up. MYLO and ELIZA were associated with reductions in distress, depression, anxiety and stress. MYLO was considered more helpful and led to greater problem resolution. The psychological change processes predicted higher ratings of MYLO's helpfulness and reductions in distress. Positive expectancies towards computer-based problem solving correlated with MYLO's perceived helpfulness and greater problem resolution, and this was partly mediated by the psychological change processes identified. The findings provide provisional support for the acceptability of the MYLO program in a non-clinical sample although its efficacy as an innovative computer-based aid to problem solving remains unclear. Nevertheless, the findings provide tentative early support for the mechanisms of psychological change identified within PCT and highlight the importance of client expectations on predicting engagement in computer-based self-help.

Development of a Tool to Recreate the Mars Science Laboratory Aerothermal Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beerman, A. F.; Lewis, M. J.; Santos, J. A.; White, T. R.

2010-01-01

The Mars Science Laboratory will enter the Martian atmosphere in 2012 with multiple char depth sensors and in-depth thermocouples in its heatshield. The aerothermal environment experienced by MSL may be computationally recreated using the data from the sensors and a material response program, such as the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal (FIAT) response program, through the matching of the char depth and thermocouple predictions of the material response program to the sensor data. A tool, CHanging Inputs from the Environment of FIAT (CHIEF), was developed to iteratively change different environmental conditions such that FIAT predictions match within certain criteria applied to an external data set. The computational environment is changed by iterating on the enthalpy, pressure, or heat transfer coefficient at certain times in the trajectory. CHIEF was initially compared against arc-jet test data from the development of the MSL heatshield and then against simulated sensor data derived from design trajectories for MSL. CHIEF was able to match char depth and in-depth thermocouple temperatures within the bounds placed upon it for these cases. Further refinement of CHIEF to compare multiple time points and assign convergence criteria may improve accuracy.

Predicting Climate-sensitive Infectious Diseases: Development of a Federal Science Plan and the Path Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trtanj, J.; Balbus, J. M.; Brown, C.; Shimamoto, M. M.

2017-12-01

The transmission and spread of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases and zoonosis, are influenced by short and long-term climate factors, in conjunction with numerous other drivers. Public health interventions, including vaccination, vector control programs, and outreach campaigns could be made more effective if the geographic range and timing of increased disease risk could be more accurately targeted, and high risk areas and populations identified. While some progress has been made in predictive modeling for transmission of these diseases using climate and weather data as inputs, they often still start after the first case appears, the skill of those models remains limited, and their use by public health officials infrequent. And further, predictions with lead times of weeks, months or seasons are even rarer, yet the value of acting early holds the potential to save more lives, reduce cost and enhance both economic and national security. Information on high-risk populations and areas for infectious diseases is also potentially useful for the federal defense and intelligence communities as well. The US Global Change Research Program, through its Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), has put together a science plan that pulls together federal scientists and programs working on predictive modeling of climate-sensitive diseases, and draws on academic and other partners. Through a series of webinars and an in-person workshop, the CCHHG has convened key federal and academic stakeholders to assess the current state of science and develop an integrated science plan to identify data and observation systems needs as well as a targeted research agenda for enhancing predictive modeling. This presentation will summarize the findings from this effort and engage AGU members on plans and next steps to improve predictive modeling for infectious diseases.

TI-59 helps predict IPRs for gravel-packed gas wells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Capdevielle, W.C.

The inflow performance relationship (IPR) is an important tool for reservoir and production engineers. It helps optimize completion, tubing, gas lift, and storm choke design. It facilitates accurate rate predictions that can be used to evaluate field development decisions. The IPR is the first step of the systems analysis that translates reservoir rock and fluid parameters into predictable flow rates. Use of gravel packing for sand control complicates the calculation that predicts a well's IPR curve, particularly in gas wells where high velocities in the formation and through gravel-filled perforation tunnels can cause turbulent flow. The program presented in thismore » article calculates the pressure drop and the flowing bottomhole pressures at varying flow rates for gravel-packed gas wells. The program was written for a Texas Instruments TI-59 programmable calculator with a PC-100 printer. Program features include: Calculations for in-casing gravel packs, open-hole gravel packs, or ungravel packed wells. Program prompts for the required data variables. Easy change of data values to run new cases. Calculates pressures for an unlimited number of flow rates. Results show the total pressure drop and the relative magnitude of its components.« less

Predictors of sustained reduction in energy and fat intake in the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study intensive lifestyle intervention.

PubMed

Davis, Nichola J; Ma, Yong; Delahanty, Linda M; Hoffman, Heather J; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth; Franks, Paul W; Brown-Friday, Janet; Isonaga, Mae; Kriska, Andrea M; Venditti, Elizabeth M; Wylie-Rosett, Judith

2013-11-01

Few lifestyle intervention studies examine long-term sustainability of dietary changes. To describe sustainability of dietary changes over 9 years in the Diabetes Prevention Program and its outcomes study, the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study, among participants receiving the intensive lifestyle intervention. One thousand seventy-nine participants were enrolled in the intensive lifestyle intervention arm of the Diabetes Prevention Program; 910 continued participation in the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study. Fat and energy intake derived from food frequency questionnaires at baseline and post-randomization Years 1 and 9 were examined. Parsimonious models determined whether baseline characteristics and intensive lifestyle intervention session participation predicted sustainability. Self-reported energy intake was reduced from a median of 1,876 kcal/day (interquartile range [IQR]=1,452 to 2,549 kcal/day) at baseline to 1,520 kcal/day (IQR=1,192 to 1,986 kcal/day) at Year 1, and 1,560 kcal/day (IQR=1,223 to 2,026 kcal/day) at Year 9. Dietary fat was reduced from a median of 70.4 g (IQR=49.3 to 102.5 g) to 45 g (IQR=32.2 to 63.8 g) at Year 1 and increased to 61.0 g (IQR=44.6 to 82.7 g) at Year 9. Percent energy from fat was reduced from a median of 34.4% (IQR=29.6% to 38.5%) to 27.1% (IQR=23.1% to 31.5%) at Year 1 but increased to 35.3% (IQR=29.7% to 40.2%) at Year 9. Lower baseline energy intake and Year 1 dietary reduction predicted lower energy and fat gram intake at Year 9. Higher leisure physical activity predicted lower fat gram intake but not energy intake. Intensive lifestyle intervention can result in reductions in total energy intake for up to 9 years. Initial success in achieving reductions in fat and energy intake and success in attaining activity goals appear to predict long-term success at maintaining changes. Copyright © 2013 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Response of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: The Western Mountain Initiative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephenson, Nathan L.; Peterson, Dave; Fagre, Daniel B.; Allen, Craig D.; McKenzie, Donald; Baron, Jill S.; O'Brian, Kelly

2007-01-01

Mountain ecosystems within our national parks and other protected areas provide valuable goods and services such as clean water, biodiversity conservation, and recreational opportunities, but their potential responses to expected climatic changes are inadequately understood. The Western Mountain Initiative (WMI) is a collaboration of scientists whose research focuses on understanding and predicting responses of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change. It is a legacy of the Global Change Research Program initiated by the National Park Service (NPS) in 1991 and continued by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to this day as part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (http://www.climatescience.gov/). All WMI scientists are active participants in CIRMOUNT, and seek to further its goals.

Selecting Policy Indicators and Developing Simulation Models for the National School Lunch and Breakfast Programs. Final Report. Special Nutrition Programs Report Series. Special Nutrition Programs Report No. CN-10-PRED

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dragoset, Lisa; Gordon, Anne

2010-01-01

This report describes work using nationally representative 2005 data from the School Nutrition Dietary Assessment-III (SNDA-III) study to develop a simulation model to predict the potential implications of changes in policies or practices related to school meals and school food environments. The model focuses on three domains of outcomes: (1) the…

Educational Programs as a Means of Changing Attitudes Toward Gay People

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morin, Stephen F.

1974-01-01

This study attempted to assess ways in which a specifically designed course on homosexuality including seven groups of gay speakers affected attitudes of 18 advanced college students. The results indicated a significant change ina positive direction as predicted. These results are discussed in terms of Weinberg's theory of homophobia. (Author)

US Climate Variability and Predictability Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Mike

The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year supportmore » of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.« less

US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project- Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Mike

The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year supportmore » of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.« less

Land-use changes and the physical habitat of streams - a review with emphasis on studies within the U.S. Geological Survey Federal-State Cooperative Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Femmer, Suzanne R.; McKenney, Rose A.

2001-01-01

Understanding the links between land-use changes and physical stream habitat responses is of increasing importance to guide resource management and stream restoration strategies. Transmission of runoff and sediment to streams can involve complex responses of drainage basins, including time lags, thresholds, and cumulative effects. Land-use induced runoff and sediment yield often combine with channel-scale disturbances that decrease flow resistance and erosion resistance, or increase stream energy. The net effects of these interactions on physical stream habitat—depth, velocity, substrate, cover, and temperature—are a challenge to predict. Improved diagnosis and predictive understanding of future change usually require multifaceted, multi-scale, and multidisciplinary studies based on a firm understanding of the history and processes operating in a drainage basin. The U.S. Geological Survey Federal-State Cooperative Program has been instrumental in fostering studies of the links between land use and stream habitat nationwide.

Improving hand hygiene compliance in healthcare settings using behavior change theories: reflections.

PubMed

Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A; Pittet, Didier

2013-01-01

Although hand hygiene is the most effective method for preventing healthcare-associated infections, hand hygiene practice falls short in many healthcare facilities. The compliance rate is mostly linked to system design and easily accessible hand hygiene products. System change, healthcare worker motivation, and complex behavioral considerations seem to play a significant role. This article discusses the application of behavioral theories in hand hygiene promotion in a theoretical manner. The program relies on the transtheoretical model (TTM) of health behavior change, John Keller's (ARCS) Model of Motivational Design, and the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Thus, the program links attitudes and behavior to hand hygiene promotion. The TTM of health behavior change helps to tailor interventions to predict and motivate individual movement across the pathway to change. A program could be based on this theory with multiple intercalations with John Keller's ARCS and the TPB. Such a program could be strengthened by linking attitudes and behavior to promote hand hygiene. The program could utilize different strategies such as organization cultural change that may increase the attention as well as fostering the movement in the ARCS stages. In addition, modeling TPB by creating peer pressure, ability to overcome obstacles, and increasing knowledge of the role of hand hygiene may lead to the desired outcome. The understanding and application of behavior change theories may result in an effective program to improve awareness and raise intention and thus may increase the potential for success of hand hygiene promotion programs.

Web-Based Self-Help for Preventing Mental Health Problems in Universities: Comparing Acceptance and Commitment Training to Mental Health Education.

PubMed

Levin, Michael E; Hayes, Steven C; Pistorello, Jacqueline; Seeley, John R

2016-03-01

This study sought to test the feasibility of a web-based Acceptance and Commitment Training (ACT) prototype prevention program called ACT on College Life (ACT-CL). A sample of 234 university students was randomized to either the ACT-CL website or a mental health education (MHE) website. Findings indicated a lower level of user engagement and satisfaction ratings with the prototype of ACT-CL than the MHE website. There were no significant differences between conditions on outcome measures at post or follow-up. However, statistical trends suggested the MHE condition actually led to greater remission of severe symptoms than the ACT-CL condition among those with severe symptoms at baseline. There were no differences between conditions on ACT process of change measures. Changes in psychological flexibility were predictive of changes in mental health across conditions, but relations dissipated over time. Furthermore, greater engagement in some components of ACT-CL predicted improvements in psychological flexibility, though not on mental health outcomes. The effects of the ACT-CL program on mental health outcomes and ACT process measures were largely equivalent to those of an education website, although there was a lower level of program engagement with ACT-CL. Findings are discussed in the context of feasibility issues and lessons learned for program revisions. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Does improvement in self-management skills predict improvement in quality of life and depressive symptoms? A prospective study in patients with heart failure up to one year after self-management education.

PubMed

Musekamp, Gunda; Schuler, Michael; Seekatz, Bettina; Bengel, Jürgen; Faller, Hermann; Meng, Karin

2017-02-15

Heart failure (HF) patient education aims to foster patients' self-management skills. These are assumed to bring about, in turn, improvements in distal outcomes such as quality of life. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that change in self-reported self-management skills observed after participation in self-management education predicts changes in physical and mental quality of life and depressive symptoms up to one year thereafter. The sample comprised 342 patients with chronic heart failure, treated in inpatient rehabilitation clinics, who received a heart failure self-management education program. Latent change modelling was used to analyze relationships between both short-term (during inpatient rehabilitation) and intermediate-term (after six months) changes in self-reported self-management skills and both intermediate-term and long-term (after twelve months) changes in physical and mental quality of life and depressive symptoms. Short-term changes in self-reported self-management skills predicted intermediate-term changes in mental quality of life and long-term changes in physical quality of life. Intermediate-term changes in self-reported self-management skills predicted long-term changes in all outcomes. These findings support the assumption that improvements in self-management skills may foster improvements in distal outcomes.

Effects of the KiVa Anti-bullying Program on Adolescents' Depression, Anxiety, and Perception of Peers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williford, Anne; Boulton, Aaron; Noland, Brian; Little, Todd D.; Karna, Antti; Salmivalli, Christina

2012-01-01

The present study investigated the effects of the KiVa antibullying program on students' anxiety, depression, and perception of peers in Grades 4-6. Furthermore, it was investigated whether reductions in peer-reported victimization predicted changes in these outcome variables. The study participants included 7,741 students from 78 schools who were…

Treatment retention in a prison-based residential sex offender treatment program.

PubMed

Pelissier, Bernadette

2007-12-01

This study assessed the role of static factors, a dynamic factor (motivation to change sexually deviant behavior), and an administrative factor in predicting treatment retention within a prison-based sex offender treatment program. The analyses also included assessing differences in initial levels of motivation and differences in beginning-versus end-of-treatment motivation scores for various types of program discharges. The sample consisted of 251 individuals who were admitted to a residential prison-based sex offender treatment program where 46% completed the program. Paired comparison t-tests showed higher motivation scores at the end of treatment only among treatment completers. Multivariate analyses showed that treatment retention was associated with higher initial motivation scores, higher levels of education and admission to treatment within 3 months of initial commitment to prison. Implications for motivational enhancement programming as well as for changes in admission criteria are discussed.

Calculation of Shuttle Base Heating Environments and Comparison with Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenwood, T. F.; Lee, Y. C.; Bender, R. L.; Carter, R. E.

1983-01-01

The techniques, analytical tools, and experimental programs used initially to generate and later to improve and validate the Shuttle base heating design environments are discussed. In general, the measured base heating environments for STS-1 through STS-5 were in good agreement with the preflight predictions. However, some changes were made in the methodology after reviewing the flight data. The flight data is described, preflight predictions are compared with the flight data, and improvements in the prediction methodology based on the data are discussed.

The Magic Background of Pearl Harbor. Volume 3 (August 5, 1941 - October 17, 1941)

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-01-01

174. Change Predicted in Japanese-American Relations hhu__nn _uu_u uu__h_nn_u_uu- 175. Washington Warns Tokyo of Security Violation 177. Japa...u u u u n 251. Consul Nihro Reports Trend Toward Philippine Independence 252. Filipinos Predict Japanese Occupation of Thailand u u u- u u u _n- u u...expansionist program but when. If the United States were to lose the present opportunity to Japan’s reactions to any circumstances could not be predicted

Elastic-plastic analysis of a propagating crack under cyclic loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, J. C., Jr.; Armen, H., Jr.

1974-01-01

Development and application of a two-dimensional finite-element analysis to predict crack-closure and crack-opening stresses during specified histories of cyclic loading. An existing finite-element computer program which accounts for elastic-plastic material behavior under cyclic loading was modified to account for changing boundary conditions - crack growth and intermittent contact of crack surfaces. This program was subsequently used to study the crack-closure behavior under constant-amplitude and simple block-program loading.

Predicting Changes in Athletes' Well Being from Changes in Need Satisfaction over the Course of a Competitive Season

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amorose, Anthony J.; Anderson-Butcher, Dawn; Cooper, Jillian

2009-01-01

It is commonly believed that participation in structured sport programs leads to positive experiences and beneficial developmental outcomes for children and adolescents. For instance, proponents of organized sport cite that participation can help build self-esteem, promote sportspersonship, encourage a valuing of physical activity, and provide a…

Effects of a one year physical activity program on serum C Terminal Agrin Fragment (CAF) concentrations among mobility limited older adults

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

OBJECTIVES: C terminal Agrin Fragment (CAF) has been proposed as a potential circulating biomarker for predicting changes in physical function among older adults. To determine the effect of a one year PA intervention on changes in CAF concentrations and to evaluate baseline and longitudinal associat...

Modeling of Compressible Flow with Friction and Heat Transfer Using the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bandyopadhyay, Alak; Majumdar, Alok

2007-01-01

The present paper describes the verification and validation of a quasi one-dimensional pressure based finite volume algorithm, implemented in Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP), for predicting compressible flow with friction, heat transfer and area change. The numerical predictions were compared with two classical solutions of compressible flow, i.e. Fanno and Rayleigh flow. Fanno flow provides an analytical solution of compressible flow in a long slender pipe where incoming subsonic flow can be choked due to friction. On the other hand, Raleigh flow provides analytical solution of frictionless compressible flow with heat transfer where incoming subsonic flow can be choked at the outlet boundary with heat addition to the control volume. Nonuniform grid distribution improves the accuracy of numerical prediction. A benchmark numerical solution of compressible flow in a converging-diverging nozzle with friction and heat transfer has been developed to verify GFSSP's numerical predictions. The numerical predictions compare favorably in all cases.

A New NOAA Research Initiative on the Seasonal Prediction of U.S. Coastal High Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariotti, A.; Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Huang, J.

2017-12-01

A crucial part of NOAA's service mission is to make U.S. communities more resilient to rises in coastal sea level, which on a seasonal timescale may increase the threat for nuisance ("sunny day") flooding, as well as enhance the severity of storm surge events. Over a season, variability in climate or ocean dynamics, in combination with longer-term trends, can influence coastal sea level in a way that is potentially predictable. To leverage these emerging scientific findings, the Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program, in partnership with the National Marine Fisheries Service, has funded a set of three-year projects starting in FY 2017 to help develop NOAA's capability to produce skillful seasonal (i.e, 2-9 month) predictions of coastal high water levels as well as changing living marine resources. This presentation will describe the goals, scope and intended activities of this research initiative and its coordination via a new MAPP Ocean Prediction Task Force.

Development Context Driven Change Awareness and Analysis Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarma, Anita; Branchaud, Josh; Dwyer, Matthew B.; Person, Suzette; Rungta, Neha

2014-01-01

Recent work on workspace monitoring allows conflict prediction early in the development process, however, these approaches mostly use syntactic differencing techniques to compare different program versions. In contrast, traditional change-impact analysis techniques analyze related versions of the program only after the code has been checked into the master repository. We propose a novel approach, De- CAF (Development Context Analysis Framework), that leverages the development context to scope a change impact analysis technique. The goal is to characterize the impact of each developer on other developers in the team. There are various client applications such as task prioritization, early conflict detection, and providing advice on testing that can benefit from such a characterization. The DeCAF framework leverages information from the development context to bound the iDiSE change impact analysis technique to analyze only the parts of the code base that are of interest. Bounding the analysis can enable DeCAF to efficiently compute the impact of changes using a combination of program dependence and symbolic execution based approaches.

Development Context Driven Change Awareness and Analysis Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarma, Anita; Branchaud, Josh; Dwyer, Matthew B.; Person, Suzette; Rungta, Neha; Wang, Yurong; Elbaum, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Recent work on workspace monitoring allows conflict prediction early in the development process, however, these approaches mostly use syntactic differencing techniques to compare different program versions. In contrast, traditional change-impact analysis techniques analyze related versions of the program only after the code has been checked into the master repository. We propose a novel approach, DeCAF (Development Context Analysis Framework), that leverages the development context to scope a change impact analysis technique. The goal is to characterize the impact of each developer on other developers in the team. There are various client applications such as task prioritization, early conflict detection, and providing advice on testing that can benefit from such a characterization. The DeCAF framework leverages information from the development context to bound the iDiSE change impact analysis technique to analyze only the parts of the code base that are of interest. Bounding the analysis can enable DeCAF to efficiently compute the impact of changes using a combination of program dependence and symbolic execution based approaches.

GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Try, Paul

1993-01-01

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) represents the World Climate Research Program activities on clouds, radiation, and land-surface processes. The goal of the program is to reproduce and predict, by means of suitable models, the variations of the global hydrological regime and its impact on atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. However, GEWEX is also concerned with variations in regional hydrological processes and water resources and their response to changes in the environment such as increasing greenhouse gases. In fact, GEWEX contains a major new international project called the GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP), which is designed to bridge the gap between the small scales represented by hydrological models and those scales that are practical for predicting the regional impacts of climate change. The development and use of coupled mesoscale-hydrological models for this purpose is a high priority in GCIP. The objectives of GCIP are presented.

Sensitivity of ab Initio vs Empirical Methods in Computing Structural Effects on NMR Chemical Shifts for the Example of Peptides.

PubMed

Sumowski, Chris Vanessa; Hanni, Matti; Schweizer, Sabine; Ochsenfeld, Christian

2014-01-14

The structural sensitivity of NMR chemical shifts as computed by quantum chemical methods is compared to a variety of empirical approaches for the example of a prototypical peptide, the 38-residue kaliotoxin KTX comprising 573 atoms. Despite the simplicity of empirical chemical shift prediction programs, the agreement with experimental results is rather good, underlining their usefulness. However, we show in our present work that they are highly insensitive to structural changes, which renders their use for validating predicted structures questionable. In contrast, quantum chemical methods show the expected high sensitivity to structural and electronic changes. This appears to be independent of the quantum chemical approach or the inclusion of solvent effects. For the latter, explicit solvent simulations with increasing number of snapshots were performed for two conformers of an eight amino acid sequence. In conclusion, the empirical approaches neither provide the expected magnitude nor the patterns of NMR chemical shifts determined by the clearly more costly ab initio methods upon structural changes. This restricts the use of empirical prediction programs in studies where peptide and protein structures are utilized for the NMR chemical shift evaluation such as in NMR refinement processes, structural model verifications, or calculations of NMR nuclear spin relaxation rates.

Counselor-Level Predictors of Sustained Use of an Indicated Preventive Intervention for Aggressive Children.

PubMed

Lochman, John E; Powell, Nicole P; Boxmeyer, Caroline L; Qu, Lixin; Sallee, Meghann; Wells, Karen C; Windle, Michael

2015-11-01

Despite widespread concern about the frequent failure of trained prevention staff to continue to use evidence-based programs following periods of intensive training, little research has addressed the characteristics and experiences of counselors that might predict their sustained use of a program. The current study follows a sample of school counselors who were trained to use an indicated preventive intervention, the Coping Power program, in an earlier dissemination study, and determines their levels of continued use of the program's child and parent components in the 2 years following the counselors' intensive training in the program. Counselor characteristics and experiences were also examined as predictors of their sustained use of the program components. The Coping Power program addresses children's emotional regulation, social cognitive processes, and increases in positive interpersonal behaviors with at-risk children who have been screened to have moderate to high levels of aggressive behavior. The results indicated that counselors' perceptions of interpersonal support from teachers within their schools, their perceptions of the effectiveness of the program, and their expectations for using the program were all predictive of program use over the following 2 years. In addition, certain counselor personality characteristics (i.e., conscientiousness) and the level of actual teacher-rated behavior change experienced by the children they worked with during training were predictors of counselors' use of the program during the second year after training. These results indicate the central importance of teacher support and of child progress during training in the prediction of counselors' sustained use of a prevention program.

Curriculum emphasis and resident preparation in postgraduate general dentistry programs.

PubMed

Lefever, Karen H; Atchison, Kathryn A; Mito, Ronald S; Lin, Sylvia

2002-06-01

In 1999 HRSA contracted with the UCLA School of Dentistry to evaluate the impact of federal funding on postgraduate general dentistry programs. Part of that evaluation analyzed curriculum emphasis and preparation of incoming residents in advanced general dentistry programs over a five-year period. Directors of 208 civilian AEGD and GPR programs were surveyed about the curriculum content of their programs, increased or decreased emphasis in thirty subject areas, and resident preparation and quality (GPA and National Board scores). Results indicate that curriculum changes in AEGD and GPR programs over the time period have been responsive to the changing nature of general practice. At least half of all program directors reported that their residents were less than adequately prepared in fourteen curriculum areas. Sub-analyses were conducted for AEGD/GPR programs and HRSA-funded versus nonfunded programs. Multivariate regression identified lower student quality as the most important program variable in predicting a perceived need for resident remediation. Logistic regression showed that programs with higher resident GPA and National Board Part I scores had less difficulty filling resident positions.

Reconstruction of Past Mediterranean Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Herrera, Ricardo; Luterbacher, Jürg; Lionello, Piero; Gonzáles-Rouco, Fidel; Ribera, Pedro; Rodó, Xavier; Kull, Christoph; Zerefos, Christos

2007-02-01

First MEDCLIVAR Workshop on Reconstruction of Past Mediterranean Climate; Pablo de Olavide University, Carmona, Spain, 8-11 November 2006; Mediterranean Climate Variability and Predictability (MEDCLIVAR; http://www.medclivar.eu) is a program that coordinates and promotes research on different aspects of Mediterranean climate. The main MEDCLIVAR goals include the reconstruction of past climate, describing patterns and mechanisms characterizing climate space-time variability, extremes at different time and space scales, coupled climate model/empirical reconstruction comparisons, seasonal forecasting, and the identification of the forcings responsible for the observed changes. The program has been endorsed by CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability project) and is funded by the European Science Foundation.

Development and pilot-test of the Workplace Readiness Questionnaire, a theory-based instrument to measure small workplaces’ readiness to implement wellness programs

PubMed Central

Hannon, Peggy A.; Helfrich, Christian D.; Chan, K. Gary; Allen, Claire L.; Hammerback, Kristen; Kohn, Marlana J.; Parrish, Amanda T.; Weiner, Bryan J.; Harris, Jeffrey R.

2016-01-01

Purpose To develop a theory-based questionnaire to assess readiness for change in small workplaces adopting wellness programs. Design In developing our scale, we first tested items via “think-aloud” interviews. We tested the revised items in a cross-sectional quantitative telephone survey. Setting Small workplaces (20–250 employees) in low-wage industries. Subjects Decision-makers representing small workplaces in King County, Washington (think-aloud interviews, n=9) and the United States (telephone survey, n=201). Measures We generated items for each construct in Weiner’s theory of organizational readiness for change. We also measured workplace characteristics and current implementation of workplace wellness programs. Analysis We assessed reliability by coefficient alpha for each of the readiness questionnaire subscales. We tested the association of all subscales with employers’ current implementation of wellness policies, programs, and communications, and conducted a path analysis to test the associations in the theory of organizational readiness to change. Results Each of the readiness subscales exhibited acceptable internal reliability (coefficient alpha range = .75–.88) and was positively associated with wellness program implementation (p <.05). The path analysis was consistent with the theory of organizational readiness to change, except change efficacy did not predict change-related effort. Conclusion We developed a new questionnaire to assess small workplaces’ readiness to adopt and implement evidence-based wellness programs. Our findings also provide empirical validation of Weiner’s theory of readiness for change. PMID:26389975

Development and Pilot Test of the Workplace Readiness Questionnaire, a Theory-Based Instrument to Measure Small Workplaces' Readiness to Implement Wellness Programs.

PubMed

Hannon, Peggy A; Helfrich, Christian D; Chan, K Gary; Allen, Claire L; Hammerback, Kristen; Kohn, Marlana J; Parrish, Amanda T; Weiner, Bryan J; Harris, Jeffrey R

2017-01-01

To develop a theory-based questionnaire to assess readiness for change in small workplaces adopting wellness programs. In developing our scale, we first tested items via "think-aloud" interviews. We tested the revised items in a cross-sectional quantitative telephone survey. The study setting comprised small workplaces (20-250 employees) in low-wage industries. Decision-makers representing small workplaces in King County, Washington (think-aloud interviews, n = 9), and the United States (telephone survey, n = 201) served as study subjects. We generated items for each construct in Weiner's theory of organizational readiness for change. We also measured workplace characteristics and current implementation of workplace wellness programs. We assessed reliability by coefficient alpha for each of the readiness questionnaire subscales. We tested the association of all subscales with employers' current implementation of wellness policies, programs, and communications, and conducted a path analysis to test the associations in the theory of organizational readiness to change. Each of the readiness subscales exhibited acceptable internal reliability (coefficient alpha range, .75-.88) and was positively associated with wellness program implementation ( p < .05). The path analysis was consistent with the theory of organizational readiness to change, except change efficacy did not predict change-related effort. We developed a new questionnaire to assess small workplaces' readiness to adopt and implement evidence-based wellness programs. Our findings also provide empirical validation of Weiner's theory of readiness for change.

Computer simulated building energy consumption for verification of energy conservation measures in network facilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plankey, B.

1981-01-01

A computer program called ECPVER (Energy Consumption Program - Verification) was developed to simulate all energy loads for any number of buildings. The program computes simulated daily, monthly, and yearly energy consumption which can be compared with actual meter readings for the same time period. Such comparison can lead to validation of the model under a variety of conditions, which allows it to be used to predict future energy saving due to energy conservation measures. Predicted energy saving can then be compared with actual saving to verify the effectiveness of those energy conservation changes. This verification procedure is planned to be an important advancement in the Deep Space Network Energy Project, which seeks to reduce energy cost and consumption at all DSN Deep Space Stations.

Predicting non-stationary algal dynamics following changes in hydrometeorological conditions using data assimilation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Seo, D. J.

2017-12-01

When water temperature (TW) increases due to changes in hydrometeorological conditions, the overall ecological conditions change in the aquatic system. The changes can be harmful to human health and potentially fatal to fish habitat. Therefore, it is important to assess the impacts of thermal disturbances on in-stream processes of water quality variables and be able to predict effectiveness of possible actions that may be taken for water quality protection. For skillful prediction of in-stream water quality processes, it is necessary for the watershed water quality models to be able to reflect such changes. Most of the currently available models, however, assume static parameters for the biophysiochemical processes and hence are not able to capture nonstationaries seen in water quality observations. In this work, we assess the performance of the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) in predicting algal dynamics following TW increase. The study area is located in the Republic of Korea where waterway change due to weir construction and drought concurrently occurred around 2012. In this work we use data assimilation (DA) techniques to update model parameters as well as the initial condition of selected state variables for in-stream processes relevant to algal growth. For assessment of model performance and characterization of temporal variability, various goodness-of-fit measures and wavelet analysis are used.

Predicting efficacy of robot-aided rehabilitation in chronic stroke patients using an MRI-compatible robotic device.

PubMed

Sergi, Fabrizio; Krebs, Hermano Igo; Groissier, Benjamin; Rykman, Avrielle; Guglielmelli, Eugenio; Volpe, Bruce T; Schaechter, Judith D

2011-01-01

We are investigating the neural correlates of motor recovery promoted by robot-mediated therapy in chronic stroke. This pilot study asked whether efficacy of robot-aided motor rehabilitation in chronic stroke could be predicted by a change in functional connectivity within the sensorimotor network in response to a bout of motor rehabilitation. To address this question, two stroke patients participated in a functional connectivity MRI study pre and post a 12-week robot-aided motor rehabilitation program. Functional connectivity was evaluated during three consecutive scans before the rehabilitation program: resting-state; point-to-point reaching movements executed by the paretic upper extremity (UE) using a newly developed MRI-compatible sensorized passive manipulandum; resting-state. A single resting-state scan was conducted after the rehabilitation program. Before the program, UE movement reduced functional connectivity between the ipsilesional and contralesional primary motor cortex. Reduced interhemispheric functional connectivity persisted during the second resting-state scan relative to the first and during the resting-state scan after the rehabilitation program. Greater reduction in interhemispheric functional connectivity during the resting-state was associated with greater gains in UE motor function induced by the 12-week robotic therapy program. These findings suggest that greater reduction in interhemispheric functional connectivity in response to a bout of motor rehabilitation may predict greater efficacy of the full rehabilitation program.

Assessing the Culture of Residency Using the C - Change Resident Survey: Validity Evidence in 34 U.S. Residency Programs.

PubMed

Pololi, Linda H; Evans, Arthur T; Civian, Janet T; Shea, Sandy; Brennan, Robert T

2017-07-01

A practical instrument is needed to reliably measure the clinical learning environment and professionalism for residents. To develop and present evidence of validity of an instrument to assess the culture of residency programs and the clinical learning environment. During 2014-2015, we surveyed residents using the C - Change Resident Survey to assess residents' perceptions of the culture in their programs. Residents in all years of training in 34 programs in internal medicine, pediatrics, and general surgery in 14 geographically diverse public and private academic health systems. The C - Change Resident Survey assessed residents' perceptions of 13 dimensions of the culture: Vitality, Self-Efficacy, Institutional Support, Relationships/Inclusion, Values Alignment, Ethical/Moral Distress, Respect, Mentoring, Work-Life Integration, Gender Equity, Racial/Ethnic Minority Equity, and self-assessed Competencies. We measured the internal reliability of each of the 13 dimensions and evaluated response process, content validity, and construct-related evidence validity by assessing relationships predicted by our conceptual model and prior research. We also assessed whether the measurements were sensitive to differences in specialty and across institutions. A total of 1708 residents completed the survey [internal medicine: n = 956, pediatrics: n = 411, general surgery: n = 311 (51% women; 16% underrepresented in medicine minority)], with a response rate of 70% (range across programs, 51-87%). Internal consistency of each dimension was high (Cronbach α: 0.73-0.90). The instrument was able to detect significant differences in the learning environment across programs and sites. Evidence of validity was supported by a good response process and the demonstration of several relationships predicted by our conceptual model. The C - Change Resident Survey assesses the clinical learning environment for residents, and we encourage further study of validity in different contexts. Results could be used to facilitate and monitor improvements in the clinical learning environment and resident well-being.

Student Use of Physics to Make Sense of Incomplete but Functional VPython Programs in a Lab Setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherford, Shawn A.

2011-12-01

Computational activities in Matter & Interactions, an introductory calculus-based physics course, have the instructional goal of providing students with the experience of applying the same set of a small number of fundamental principles to model a wide range of physical systems. However there are significant instructional challenges for students to build computer programs under limited time constraints, especially for students who are unfamiliar with programming languages and concepts. Prior attempts at designing effective computational activities were successful at having students ultimately build working VPython programs under the tutelage of experienced teaching assistants in a studio lab setting. A pilot study revealed that students who completed these computational activities had significant difficultly repeating the exact same tasks and further, had difficulty predicting the animation that would be produced by the example program after interpreting the program code. This study explores the interpretation and prediction tasks as part of an instructional sequence where students are asked to read and comprehend a functional, but incomplete program. Rather than asking students to begin their computational tasks with modifying program code, we explicitly ask students to interpret an existing program that is missing key lines of code. The missing lines of code correspond to the algebraic form of fundamental physics principles or the calculation of forces which would exist between analogous physical objects in the natural world. Students are then asked to draw a prediction of what they would see in the simulation produced by the VPython program and ultimately run the program to evaluate the students' prediction. This study specifically looks at how the participants use physics while interpreting the program code and creating a whiteboard prediction. This study also examines how students evaluate their understanding of the program and modification goals at the beginning of the modification task. While working in groups over the course of a semester, study participants were recorded while they completed three activities using these incomplete programs. Analysis of the video data showed that study participants had little difficulty interpreting physics quantities, generating a prediction, or determining how to modify the incomplete program. Participants did not base their prediction solely from the information from the incomplete program. When participants tried to predict the motion of the objects in the simulation, many turned to their knowledge of how the system would evolve if it represented an analogous real-world physical system. For example, participants attributed the real-world behavior of springs to helix objects even though the program did not include calculations for the spring to exert a force when stretched. Participants rarely interpreted lines of code in the computational loop during the first computational activity, but this changed during latter computational activities with most participants using their physics knowledge to interpret the computational loop. Computational activities in the Matter & Interactions curriculum were revised in light of these findings to include an instructional sequence of tasks to build a comprehension of the example program. The modified activities also ask students to create an additional whiteboard prediction for the time-evolution of the real-world phenomena which the example program will eventually model. This thesis shows how comprehension tasks identified by Palinscar and Brown (1984) as effective in improving reading comprehension are also effective in helping students apply their physics knowledge to interpret a computer program which attempts to model a real-world phenomena and identify errors in their understanding of the use, or omission, of fundamental physics principles in a computational model.

Use of the partial farm budget technique to predict the economic impact of the flock management decision to use B-mode ultrasonographic pregnancy diagnosis.

PubMed

Sprecher, D J; Ley, W B; Whittier, W D; Bowen, J M; Thatcher, C D; Pelzer, K D; Moore, J M

1989-07-15

A computer spreadsheet was developed to predict the economic impact of a management decision to use B-mode ultrasonographic ovine pregnancy diagnosis. The spreadsheet design and spreadsheet cell formulas are provided. The program used the partial farm budget technique to calculate net return (NR) or cash flow changes that resulted from the decision to use ultrasonography. Using the program, either simple pregnancy diagnosis or pregnancy diagnosis with the ability to determine singleton or multiple pregnancies may be compared with no flock ultrasonographic pregnancy diagnosis. A wide range of user-selected regional variables are used to calculate the cash flow changes associated with the ultrasonography decisions. A variable may be altered through a range of values to conduct a sensitivity analysis of predicted NR. Example sensitivity analyses are included for flock conception rate, veterinary ultrasound fee, and the price of corn. Variables that influence the number of cull animals and the cost of ultrasonography have the greatest impact on predicted NR. Because the determination of singleton or multiple pregnancies is more time consuming, its economic practicality in comparison with simple pregnancy diagnosis is questionable. The value of feed saved by identifying and separately feeding ewes with singleton pregnancies is not offset by the increased ultrasonography cost.

Our Mission to Planet Earth: A guide to teaching Earth system science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, floods, and El Nino are naturally occurring events over which humans have no control. But can human activities cause additional environmental change? Can scientists predict the global impacts of increased levels of pollutants in the atmosphere? Will the planet warm because increased levels of greenhouse gases, produced by the burning of fossil fuels, trap heat and prevent it from being radiated back into space? Will the polar ice cap melt, causing massive coastal flooding? Have humans initiated wholesale climatic change? These are difficult questions, with grave implications. Predicting global change and understanding the relationships among earth's components have increased in priority for the nation. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), along with many other government agencies, has initiated long-term studies of earth's atmosphere, oceans, and land masses using observations from satellite, balloon, and aircraft-borne instruments. NASA calls its research program Mission to Planet Earth. Because NASA can place scientific instruments far above earth's surface, the program allows scientists to explore earth's components and their interactions on a global scale.

Earth system science: A program for global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

The Earth System Sciences Committee (ESSC) was appointed to consider directions for the NASA Earth-sciences program, with the following charge: review the science of the Earth as a system of interacting components; recommend an implementation strategy for Earth studies; and define the role of NASA in such a program. The challenge to the Earth system science is to develop the capability to predict those changes that will occur in the next decade to century, both naturally and in response to human activity. Sustained, long-term measurements of global variables; fundamental descriptions of the Earth and its history; research foci and process studies; development of Earth system models; an information system for Earth system science; coordination of Federal agencies; and international cooperation are examined.

Cortical Auditory Evoked Potentials Recorded From Nucleus Hybrid Cochlear Implant Users.

PubMed

Brown, Carolyn J; Jeon, Eun Kyung; Chiou, Li-Kuei; Kirby, Benjamin; Karsten, Sue A; Turner, Christopher W; Abbas, Paul J

2015-01-01

Nucleus Hybrid Cochlear Implant (CI) users hear low-frequency sounds via acoustic stimulation and high-frequency sounds via electrical stimulation. This within-subject study compares three different methods of coordinating programming of the acoustic and electrical components of the Hybrid device. Speech perception and cortical auditory evoked potentials (CAEP) were used to assess differences in outcome. The goals of this study were to determine whether (1) the evoked potential measures could predict which programming strategy resulted in better outcome on the speech perception task or was preferred by the listener, and (2) CAEPs could be used to predict which subjects benefitted most from having access to the electrical signal provided by the Hybrid implant. CAEPs were recorded from 10 Nucleus Hybrid CI users. Study participants were tested using three different experimental processor programs (MAPs) that differed in terms of how much overlap there was between the range of frequencies processed by the acoustic component of the Hybrid device and range of frequencies processed by the electrical component. The study design included allowing participants to acclimatize for a period of up to 4 weeks with each experimental program prior to speech perception and evoked potential testing. Performance using the experimental MAPs was assessed using both a closed-set consonant recognition task and an adaptive test that measured the signal-to-noise ratio that resulted in 50% correct identification of a set of 12 spondees presented in background noise. Long-duration, synthetic vowels were used to record both the cortical P1-N1-P2 "onset" response and the auditory "change" response (also known as the auditory change complex [ACC]). Correlations between the evoked potential measures and performance on the speech perception tasks are reported. Differences in performance using the three programming strategies were not large. Peak-to-peak amplitude of the ACC was not found to be sensitive enough to accurately predict the programming strategy that resulted in the best performance on either measure of speech perception. All 10 Hybrid CI users had residual low-frequency acoustic hearing. For all 10 subjects, allowing them to use both the acoustic and electrical signals provided by the implant improved performance on the consonant recognition task. For most subjects, it also resulted in slightly larger cortical change responses. However, the impact that listening mode had on the cortical change responses was small, and again, the correlation between the evoked potential and speech perception results was not significant. CAEPs can be successfully measured from Hybrid CI users. The responses that are recorded are similar to those recorded from normal-hearing listeners. The goal of this study was to see if CAEPs might play a role either in identifying the experimental program that resulted in best performance on a consonant recognition task or in documenting benefit from the use of the electrical signal provided by the Hybrid CI. At least for the stimuli and specific methods used in this study, no such predictive relationship was found.

Heat generation in Aircraft tires under yawed rolling conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dodge, Richard N.; Clark, Samuel K.

1987-01-01

An analytical model was developed for approximating the internal temperature distribution in an aircraft tire operating under conditions of yawed rolling. The model employs an assembly of elements to represent the tire cross section and treats the heat generated within the tire as a function of the change in strain energy associated with predicted tire flexure. Special contact scrubbing terms are superimposed on the symmetrical free rolling model to account for the slip during yawed rolling. An extensive experimental program was conducted to verify temperatures predicted from the analytical model. Data from this program were compared with calculation over a range of operating conditions, namely, vertical deflection, inflation pressure, yaw angle, and direction of yaw. Generally the analytical model predicted overall trends well and correlated reasonably well with individual measurements at locations throughout the cross section.

Taking dietary habits into account: A computational method for modeling food choices that goes beyond price

PubMed Central

Jones-Smith, Jessica C.; Igusa, Takeru

2017-01-01

Computational models have gained popularity as a predictive tool for assessing proposed policy changes affecting dietary choice. Specifically, they have been used for modeling dietary changes in response to economic interventions, such as price and income changes. Herein, we present a novel addition to this type of model by incorporating habitual behaviors that drive individuals to maintain or conform to prior eating patterns. We examine our method in a simulated case study of food choice behaviors of low-income adults in the US. We use data from several national datasets, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA, to parameterize our model and develop predictive capabilities in 1) quantifying the influence of prior diet preferences when food budgets are increased and 2) simulating the income elasticities of demand for four food categories. Food budgets can increase because of greater affordability (due to food aid and other nutritional assistance programs), or because of higher income. Our model predictions indicate that low-income adults consume unhealthy diets when they have highly constrained budgets, but that even after budget constraints are relaxed, these unhealthy eating behaviors are maintained. Specifically, diets in this population, before and after changes in food budgets, are characterized by relatively low consumption of fruits and vegetables and high consumption of fat. The model results for income elasticities also show almost no change in consumption of fruit and fat in response to changes in income, which is in agreement with data from the World Bank’s International Comparison Program (ICP). Hence, the proposed method can be used in assessing the influences of habitual dietary patterns on the effectiveness of food policies. PMID:28542615

Taking dietary habits into account: A computational method for modeling food choices that goes beyond price.

PubMed

Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Igusa, Takeru

2017-01-01

Computational models have gained popularity as a predictive tool for assessing proposed policy changes affecting dietary choice. Specifically, they have been used for modeling dietary changes in response to economic interventions, such as price and income changes. Herein, we present a novel addition to this type of model by incorporating habitual behaviors that drive individuals to maintain or conform to prior eating patterns. We examine our method in a simulated case study of food choice behaviors of low-income adults in the US. We use data from several national datasets, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA, to parameterize our model and develop predictive capabilities in 1) quantifying the influence of prior diet preferences when food budgets are increased and 2) simulating the income elasticities of demand for four food categories. Food budgets can increase because of greater affordability (due to food aid and other nutritional assistance programs), or because of higher income. Our model predictions indicate that low-income adults consume unhealthy diets when they have highly constrained budgets, but that even after budget constraints are relaxed, these unhealthy eating behaviors are maintained. Specifically, diets in this population, before and after changes in food budgets, are characterized by relatively low consumption of fruits and vegetables and high consumption of fat. The model results for income elasticities also show almost no change in consumption of fruit and fat in response to changes in income, which is in agreement with data from the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP). Hence, the proposed method can be used in assessing the influences of habitual dietary patterns on the effectiveness of food policies.

Patterns of individual change in a parenting program for child maltreatment and their relation to family and professional environments.

PubMed

Byrne, S; Rodrigo, M J; Máiquez, M L

2014-03-01

In the area of child maltreatment prevention, little is known about the typology of changes that individuals undergo in response to parent-training interventions. In this study, we examined the patterns of change observed in parents immediately after their completion of the Apoyo Personal y Familiar (APF, Personal and Family Support) parenting program. We identified five clusters and classified 496 parents according to two criteria: (a) the amount of pre-post changes (total or partial) as reflected in their self-reports on implicit theories, parental agency and childrearing practices, and (b) the positive, negative or mixed character of these changes. The study also included a follow-up of a subset of 95 participants intended to examine the extent to which the patterns of change identified in the first part of the study might predict the quality of the childrearing environment at home and the successful integration of the APF program into social services structures one year on. In this follow-up study, external evaluators observed families' home environments and collected the parenting program facilitators' self-reports on changes to their work environment. The evaluators found higher-quality childrearing environments and more positive appraisals of the changes to the teams' work with families in those cases where participants had experienced partial or total positive changes as a result of the APF. This approach offers insights into processes of individual change that have practical implications for the successful implementation of parenting programs in child maltreatment prevention services. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Relationship between Intensity and Breadth of After-School Program Participation and Academic Achievement: Evidence from a Short-Term Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Springer, Ken; Diffily, Deborah

2012-01-01

We explored the extent to which intensity and breadth of participation in an after-school program (ASP) predicted academic achievement, as measured by changes in grades and attendance. The sample comprised 719 2nd-grade through 8th-grade Boys and Girls Clubs of Greater Dallas members during the 2009-2010 academic year. With respect to intensity,…

Collaborations for Arctic Sea Ice Information and Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield Guy, L.; Wiggins, H. V.; Turner-Bogren, E. J.; Rich, R. H.

2017-12-01

The dramatic and rapid changes in Arctic sea ice require collaboration across boundaries, including between disciplines, sectors, institutions, and between scientists and decision-makers. This poster will highlight several projects that provide knowledge to advance the development and use of sea ice knowledge. Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO: https://www.arcus.org/search-program/siwo) - SIWO is a resource for Alaskan Native subsistence hunters and other interested stakeholders. SIWO provides weekly reports, during April-June, of sea ice conditions relevant to walrus in the northern Bering and southern Chukchi seas. Collaboration among scientists, Alaskan Native sea-ice experts, and the Eskimo Walrus Commission is fundamental to this project's success. Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN: https://www.arcus.org/sipn) - A collaborative, multi-agency-funded project focused on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions. The goals of SIPN include: coordinate and evaluate Arctic sea ice predictions; integrate, assess, and guide observations; synthesize predictions and observations; and disseminate predictions and engage key stakeholders. The Sea Ice Outlook—a key activity of SIPN—is an open process to share and synthesize predictions of the September minimum Arctic sea ice extent and other variables. Other SIPN activities include workshops, webinars, and communications across the network. Directory of Sea Ice Experts (https://www.arcus.org/researchers) - ARCUS has undertaken a pilot project to develop a web-based directory of sea ice experts across institutions, countries, and sectors. The goal of the project is to catalyze networking between individual investigators, institutions, funding agencies, and other stakeholders interested in Arctic sea ice. Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH: https://www.arcus.org/search-program) - SEARCH is a collaborative program that advances research, synthesizes research findings, and broadly communicates the results to support informed decision-making. One of SEARCH's primary science topics is focused on Arctic sea ice; the SEARCH Sea Ice Action Team is leading efforts to advance understanding and awareness of the impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss.

A computer program for detailed analysis of the takeoff and approach performance capabilities of transport category aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foss, W. E., Jr.

1979-01-01

The takeoff and approach performance of an aircraft is calculated in accordance with the airworthiness standards of the Federal Aviation Regulations. The aircraft and flight constraints are represented in sufficient detail to permit realistic sensitivity studies in terms of either configuration modifications or changes in operational procedures. The program may be used to investigate advanced operational procedures for noise alleviation such as programmed throttle and flap controls. Extensive profile time history data are generated and are placed on an interface file which can be input directly to the NASA aircraft noise prediction program (ANOPP).

The effects of climate change on the demand for municipal water for residential landscaping in Southern Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchigriaeva, E.; Lott, C.; Rollins, K.

2013-12-01

We analyze urban residential water demand for Southern Nevada as a part of the Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach project. The Nevada Climate Change project is a statewide interdisciplinary program which has launched joint research, education, and outreach on the effects of regional climate change on ecosystem services in Nevada with a particular focus on water resources. We estimate a random effect multiple regression model of urban residential water demand in order to better understand how residential water use is impacted by weather conditions and landscape characteristics and ultimately to inform predictions of urban water demand. The project develops a methodology of unification for several datasets from various sources including the Las Vegas Valley Water District (LVVWD), the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA), Clark County Assessor, and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) resulting in a sample of 3,671,983 observations for 62,237 households with uninterrupted water use history for Las Vegas urban residents for the period from February 2007 to December 2011. The presented results (i) are significantly robust and in accordance with the economics theories, (ii) support basic empirical knowledge of weather and surface influence on water outdoor consumption, (iii) suggest quantitative measurements for predicting future water use due to climate/temperature changes as well as landscape redesign practices, and (iv) provide quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of the existing water conservation programs by the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA). The further study of conservation programs and analysis of interactions between surfaces and weather using the developed approach looks promising.

Supporting decisions through the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Program: A History and Way Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Druckenmiller, M. L.; Wiggins, H. V.; Eicken, H.; Francis, J. A.; Huntington, H.; Scambos, T. A.

2015-12-01

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH), ongoing since the early-2000s, aims to develop scientific knowledge to help society understand and respond to the rapidly changing Arctic. Through collaboration with the research community, funding agencies, national and international science programs, and other stakeholders, SEARCH facilitates research activities across local-to-global scales, with increasing emphasis on addressing the information needs of policy and decision-makers. This talk will explore the program's history, spanning its earliest efforts to understand interrelated atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial changes in the Arctic to more recent objectives of providing stakeholder-relevant information, such as community-wide summaries of the expected arctic summer sea ice minimum or up-to-date information on sea ice conditions to Alaska Native walrus hunters in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. We will discuss SEARCH's recent shift toward a "Knowledge to Action" vision and implementation of focused Action Teams to: (1) improve understanding, advance prediction, and explore consequences of changing arctic sea ice; (2) document and understand how degradation of near-surface permafrost will affect arctic and global systems; and (3) improve predictions of future land-ice loss and impacts on sea level. Tracking and evaluating how scientific information from such research reaches stakeholders and informs decisions are critical for interactions that allow the research community to keep pace with an evolving landscape of arctic decision-makers. Examples will be given for the new directions these Action Teams are taking regarding science communication and approaches for research community collaboration to synthesize research findings and promote arctic science and interdisciplinary scientific discovery.

Short-term Efficacy of Click City®: Tobacco: Changing Etiological Mechanisms Related to the Onset of Tobacco Use

PubMed Central

Andrews, Judy A.; Gordon, Judith S.; Hampson, Sarah H.; Christiansen, Steven M.; Gunn, Barbara; Slovic, Paul; Severson, Herbert H.

2011-01-01

This paper described the short-term results from an ongoing randomized controlled efficacy study of Click City®: Tobacco, a tobacco prevention program designed for 5th graders, with a booster in sixth grade. Click City®: Tobacco is an innovative school-based prevention program delivered via an intranet, a series of linked computers with a single server. The components of the program target theoretically based and empirically supported etiological mechanisms predictive of future willingness and intentions to use tobacco and initiation of tobacco use. Each component was designed to change one or more etiological mechanisms and was empirically evaluated in the laboratory prior to inclusion in the program. Short-term results from 47 elementary schools (24 schools who used Click City®: Tobacco, and 23 who continued with their usual curriculum) showed change in intentions and willingness to use tobacco from baseline to one-week following the completion of the 5th grade sessions. The results demonstrate the short-term efficacy of this program and suggest that experimentally evaluating components prior to including them in the program contributed to the efficacy of the program. The program was most efficacious for students who were most at risk. PMID:21286810

The 1991 version of the plume impingement computer program. Volume 2: User's input guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bender, Robert L.; Somers, Richard E.; Prendergast, Maurice J.; Clayton, Joseph P.; Smith, Sheldon D.

1991-01-01

The Plume Impingement Program (PLIMP) is a computer code used to predict impact pressures, forces, moments, heating rates, and contamination on surfaces due to direct impingement flowfields. Typically, it has been used to analyze the effects of rocket exhaust plumes on nearby structures from ground level to the vacuum of space. The program normally uses flowfields generated by the MOC, RAMP2, SPF/2, or SFPGEN computer programs. It is capable of analyzing gaseous and gas/particle flows. A number of simple subshapes are available to model the surfaces of any structure. The original PLIMP program has been modified many times of the last 20 years. The theoretical bases for the referenced major changes, and additional undocumented changes and enhancements since 1988 are summarized in volume 1 of this report. This volume is the User's Input Guide and should be substituted for all previous guides when running the latest version of the program. This version can operate on VAX and UNIX machines with NCAR graphics ability.

Reflector surface distortion analysis techniques (thermal distortion analysis of antennas in space)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharp, R.; Liao, M.; Giriunas, J.; Heighway, J.; Lagin, A.; Steinbach, R.

1989-01-01

A group of large computer programs are used to predict the farfield antenna pattern of reflector antennas in the thermal environment of space. Thermal Radiation Analysis Systems (TRASYS) is a thermal radiation analyzer that interfaces with Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer (SINDA), a finite difference thermal analysis program. The programs linked together for this analysis can now be used to predict antenna performance in the constantly changing space environment. They can be used for very complex spacecraft and antenna geometries. Performance degradation caused by methods of antenna reflector construction and materials selection are also taken into consideration. However, the principal advantage of using this program linkage is to account for distortions caused by the thermal environment of space and the hygroscopic effects of the dry-out of graphite/epoxy materials after the antenna is placed into orbit. The results of this type of analysis could ultimately be used to predict antenna reflector shape versus orbital position. A phased array antenna distortion compensation system could then use this data to make RF phase front corrections. That is, the phase front could be adjusted to account for the distortions in the antenna feed and reflector geometry for a particular orbital position.

PREDICTING TURBINE STAGE PERFORMANCE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyle, R. J.

1994-01-01

This program was developed to predict turbine stage performance taking into account the effects of complex passage geometries. The method uses a quasi-3D inviscid-flow analysis iteratively coupled to calculated losses so that changes in losses result in changes in the flow distribution. In this manner the effects of both the geometry on the flow distribution and the flow distribution on losses are accounted for. The flow may be subsonic or shock-free transonic. The blade row may be fixed or rotating, and the blades may be twisted and leaned. This program has been applied to axial and radial turbines, and is helpful in the analysis of mixed flow machines. This program is a combination of the flow analysis programs MERIDL and TSONIC coupled to the boundary layer program BLAYER. The subsonic flow solution is obtained by a finite difference, stream function analysis. Transonic blade-to-blade solutions are obtained using information from the finite difference, stream function solution with a reduced flow factor. Upstream and downstream flow variables may vary from hub to shroud and provision is made to correct for loss of stagnation pressure. Boundary layer analyses are made to determine profile and end-wall friction losses. Empirical loss models are used to account for incidence, secondary flow, disc windage, and clearance losses. The total losses are then used to calculate stator, rotor, and stage efficiency. This program is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution and has been implemented on an IBM 370/3033 under TSS with a central memory requirement of approximately 4.5 Megs of 8 bit bytes. This program was developed in 1985.

Thermal Ablation Modeling for Silicate Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yih-Kanq

2016-01-01

A general thermal ablation model for silicates is proposed. The model includes the mass losses through the balance between evaporation and condensation, and through the moving molten layer driven by surface shear force and pressure gradient. This model can be applied in the ablation simulation of the meteoroid and the glassy ablator for spacecraft Thermal Protection Systems. Time-dependent axisymmetric computations are performed by coupling the fluid dynamics code, Data-Parallel Line Relaxation program, with the material response code, Two-dimensional Implicit Thermal Ablation simulation program, to predict the mass lost rates and shape change. The predicted mass loss rates will be compared with available data for model validation, and parametric studies will also be performed for meteoroid earth entry conditions.

A computational cognitive model of self-efficacy and daily adherence in mHealth.

PubMed

Pirolli, Peter

2016-12-01

Mobile health (mHealth) applications provide an excellent opportunity for collecting rich, fine-grained data necessary for understanding and predicting day-to-day health behavior change dynamics. A computational predictive model (ACT-R-DStress) is presented and fit to individual daily adherence in 28-day mHealth exercise programs. The ACT-R-DStress model refines the psychological construct of self-efficacy. To explain and predict the dynamics of self-efficacy and predict individual performance of targeted behaviors, the self-efficacy construct is implemented as a theory-based neurocognitive simulation of the interaction of behavioral goals, memories of past experiences, and behavioral performance.

The Interrupted Time Series as Quasi-Experiment: Three Tests of Significance. A Fortran Program for the CDC 3400 Computer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sween, Joyce; Campbell, Donald T.

Computational formulae for the following three tests of significance, useful in the interrupted time series design, are given: (1) a "t" test (Mood, 1950) for the significance of the first post-change observation from a value predicted by a linear fit of the pre-change observations; (2) an "F" test (Walker and Lev, 1953) of the…

SU-E-J-164: Estimation of DVH Variation for PTV Due to Interfraction Organ Motion in Prostate VMAT Using Gaussian Error Function

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, C; Jiang, R; Chow, J

2015-06-15

Purpose: We developed a method to predict the change of DVH for PTV due to interfraction organ motion in prostate VMAT without repeating the CT scan and treatment planning. The method is based on a pre-calculated patient database with DVH curves of PTV modelled by the Gaussian error function (GEF). Methods: For a group of 30 patients with different prostate sizes, their VMAT plans were recalculated by shifting their PTVs 1 cm with 10 increments in the anterior-posterior, left-right and superior-inferior directions. The DVH curve of PTV in each replan was then fitted by the GEF to determine parameters describingmore » the shape of curve. Information of parameters, varying with the DVH change due to prostate motion for different prostate sizes, was analyzed and stored in a database of a program written by MATLAB. Results: To predict a new DVH for PTV due to prostate interfraction motion, prostate size and shift distance with direction were input to the program. Parameters modelling the DVH for PTV were determined based on the pre-calculated patient dataset. From the new parameters, DVH curves of PTVs with and without considering the prostate motion were plotted for comparison. The program was verified with different prostate cases involving interfraction prostate shifts and replans. Conclusion: Variation of DVH for PTV in prostate VMAT can be predicted using a pre-calculated patient database with DVH curve fitting. The computing time is fast because CT rescan and replan are not required. This quick DVH estimation can help radiation staff to determine if the changed PTV coverage due to prostate shift is tolerable in the treatment. However, it should be noted that the program can only consider prostate interfraction motions along three axes, and is restricted to prostate VMAT plan using the same plan script in the treatment planning system.« less

Changes in thoracic gas volume with air-displacement plethysmography after a weight loss program in overweight and obese women.

PubMed

Minderico, C S; Silva, A M; Fields, D A; Branco, T L; Martins, S S; Teixeira, P J; Sardinha, L B

2008-03-01

This study was designed to compare measured and predicted thoracic gas volume (V (TG)) after weight loss and to analyze the effect of body composition confounders such as waist circumference (WC) on measured V (TG) changes. Prospective intervention study. Outpatient University Laboratory, Lisbon, Portugal. Eighty-five overweight and obese women (body mass index = 30.0+/-3.5 kg/m(2); age = 39.0+/-5.7 years) participating in a 16-month university-based weight control program designed to increase physical activity and improve diet. Body weight (Wb), body volume (Vb), body density (Db), fat mass (FM), percent fat mass (%FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) were assessed by air-displacement plethysmography (ADP) at baseline and at post-intervention (16 months). The ADP assessment included a protocol to measure V (TG) and a software-based predicted V (TG). Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) (Hologic QDR 1500) was also used to estimate FM, %FM and FFM. Maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2) max) was assessed with a modified Balke cardiopulmonary exercise testing protocol with a breath-by-breath gas analysis. Significant differences between the baseline and post-weight loss intervention were observed for body weight and composition (Vb, Db, %FM, FM and FFM), and measures of V (TG) (measured: Delta=0.2 l, P<0.001; predicted: Delta=0.01 l, P<0.010) variables. Measured V (TG) change was negatively associated with the change in the WC (P=0.008), controlling for VO(2) max and age (P=0.007, P=0.511 and P=0.331). Linear regression analysis results indicated that %FM and FM using the measured and predicted V (TG) explained 72 and 76%, and 86 and 90% respectively, of the variance in %FM and FM changes using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. After weight loss, measured V (TG) increased significantly, which was partially attributed to changes is an indicator of body fat distribution such as WC. Consequently, measured and predicted V (TG) should not be used interchangeably when tracking changes in body composition. The mechanisms relating the reduction of an upper body fat distribution with an increase measured V (TG) are worthy of future investigation.

A collaborative environment for developing and validating predictive tools for protein biophysical characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, Michael A.; Farrell, Damien; Nielsen, Jens Erik

2012-04-01

The exchange of information between experimentalists and theoreticians is crucial to improving the predictive ability of theoretical methods and hence our understanding of the related biology. However many barriers exist which prevent the flow of information between the two disciplines. Enabling effective collaboration requires that experimentalists can easily apply computational tools to their data, share their data with theoreticians, and that both the experimental data and computational results are accessible to the wider community. We present a prototype collaborative environment for developing and validating predictive tools for protein biophysical characteristics. The environment is built on two central components; a new python-based integration module which allows theoreticians to provide and manage remote access to their programs; and PEATDB, a program for storing and sharing experimental data from protein biophysical characterisation studies. We demonstrate our approach by integrating PEATSA, a web-based service for predicting changes in protein biophysical characteristics, into PEATDB. Furthermore, we illustrate how the resulting environment aids method development using the Potapov dataset of experimentally measured ΔΔGfold values, previously employed to validate and train protein stability prediction algorithms.

Associations between change in sedentary behavior and outcome in standard behavioral weight loss treatment.

PubMed

Kerrigan, Stephanie G; Call, Christine; Schaumberg, Katherine; Forman, Evan; Butryn, Meghan L

2018-03-01

Sedentary behavior, particularly in prolonged periods, is an important determinant of health. Little research exploring changes in sedentary behavior during behavioral weight loss programs exists. This study evaluated the magnitude of changes in total and prolonged sedentary behavior and how these changes related to changes in weight and cardiovascular outcomes during a behavioral weight loss program. Participants (n = 450) in two lifestyle modification programs underwent assessments of sedentary behavior (by accelerometry), weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, and resting heart rate at baseline and after 6 months of treatment. Sedentary behavior was defined as both total and prolonged (≥30 continuous minutes) sedentary minutes/day. Reductions in total and prolonged sedentary time were significant and were accounted for by increases in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Only changes in MVPA significantly predicted change in weight when entered into a model simultaneously with changes in sedentary behavior. Changes in total and prolonged sedentary time were not associated with changes in waist circumference, heart rate, or blood pressure. Change in sedentary time was not independently associated with change in health outcomes during a behavioral weight loss treatment. High variability in changes in sedentary time indicate that individual differences may be important to examine. Reducing sedentary time may not be powerful enough to impact these health outcomes above the effects of other changes made during these programs; alternatively, it may be that increasing focus in treatment on reducing sedentary time may engender greater decreases in sedentariness, which could lead to better health outcomes.

Online Health Behavior and Disease Management Programs: Are We Ready for Them? Are They Ready for Us?

PubMed Central

Cummins, Carol O; Prochaska, James O; Prochaska, Janice M

2005-01-01

Advancing the science and practice of health promotion and disease management on the Internet requires a systematic program of research examining the population impact of such programs. With impact described as the combination of effectiveness and participation, such research needs to include the examination of the quality and effectiveness of programs that are available to the general public, as well as descriptive and predictive knowledge about population readiness to participate in such programs. There have been few studies examining the quality of interactive health behavior change (HBC) programs on the Internet, and even fewer investigations of the effectiveness of such programs. Based on the review of over 300 HBC programs on the Internet using the “5 A's” of Health Behavior Change on the Internet (HBC-I Screener), which represent standard minimum guidelines for evaluation, it appears HBC on the Internet is in the early stages of development. As health behavior change on the Internet matures from the provision of health information to meeting the requirements necessary to produce health behavior change, and as program developers take advantage of the interactive nature of the Internet, the basic screening and expanded evaluation criteria developed in this project will provide templates for both consumers and developers of programs. The second component necessary for evaluating the impact of HBC on the Internet is the extent to which the population is ready to participate in such programs. We need to move beyond a narrow focus on early adopters and produce a population perspective that includes those not ready, those getting ready, and those ready to use such programs, as well as those already participating. By understanding participation levels of such programs, and what drives this participation, the development and dissemination of practical tailored and targeted interventions can help maximize population participation in Internet programs for health behavior change. PMID:15998618

Computer model for refinery operations with emphasis on jet fuel production. Volume 1: Program description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunbar, D. N.; Tunnah, B. G.

1978-01-01

A FORTRAN computer program is described for predicting the flow streams and material, energy, and economic balances of a typical petroleum refinery, with particular emphasis on production of aviation turbine fuel of varying end point and hydrogen content specifications. The program has provision for shale oil and coal oil in addition to petroleum crudes. A case study feature permits dependent cases to be run for parametric or optimization studies by input of only the variables which are changed from the base case.

Computer model for refinery operations with emphasis on jet fuel production. Volume 3: Detailed systems and programming documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunbar, D. N.; Tunnah, B. G.

1978-01-01

The FORTRAN computing program predicts flow streams and material, energy, and economic balances of a typical petroleum refinery, with particular emphasis on production of aviation turbine fuels of varying end point and hydrogen content specifications. The program has a provision for shale oil and coal oil in addition to petroleum crudes. A case study feature permits dependent cases to be run for parametric or optimization studies by input of only the variables which are changed from the base case.

Tracing Changes in Families Who Participated in the Home-Start Parenting Program: Parental Sense of Competence as Mechanism of Change

PubMed Central

Asscher, Jessica J.; Hermanns, Jo; Reitz, Ellen; Prinzie, Peter; van den Akker, Alithe L.

2010-01-01

The present study aimed to (1) determine the long-term effectiveness of Home-Start, a preventive parenting program, and (2) test the hypothesis that changes in maternal sense of competence mediate the program’s effects. Participants were 124 mothers (n = 66 intervention, n = 58 comparison). Four assessments took place during a 1-year period. Latent growth modeling showed that Home-Start enhanced growth in maternal sense of competence and supportive parenting, and led to a decrease in the use of inept discipline. Results of mediational and cross-lagged analyses were consistent with the hypothesized model: Participation in Home-Start was related to the changes in maternal sense of competence, which in turn predicted changes in parenting. The results affirm the importance of directly targeting parental sense of competence in the context of prevention work with parents. PMID:20101464

KC-135 Winglet Program Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The results of a joint NASA/USAF program to develop flight test winglets on a KC-135 aircraft are reviewed. The winglet development from concept through wind tunnel and flight tests is discussed. Predicted, wind tunnel, and flight test results are compared for the performance, loads and flutter characteristics of the winglets. The flight test winglets had a variable winglet cant and incidence angle capability which enabled a limited evaluation of the effects of these geometry changes.

Nursing education trends: future implications and predictions.

PubMed

Valiga, Theresa M Terry

2012-12-01

This article examines current trends in nursing education and proposes numerous transformations needed to ensure that programs are relevant, fully engage learners, reflect evidence-based teaching practices, and are innovative. Such program characteristics are essential if we are to graduate nurses who can practice effectively in today's complex, ambiguous, ever-changing health care environments and who are prepared to practice in and, indeed, shape tomorrow's unknown practice environments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding adolescent response to a technology-based depression prevention program.

PubMed

Gladstone, Tracy; Marko-Holguin, Monika; Henry, Jordan; Fogel, Joshua; Diehl, Anne; Van Voorhees, Benjamin W

2014-01-01

Guided by the Behavioral Vaccine Theory of prevention, this study uses a no-control group design to examine intervention variables that predict favorable changes in depressive symptoms at 6- to 8-week follow-up in at-risk adolescents who participated in a primary care, Internet-based prevention program. Participants included 83 adolescents from primary care settings ages 14 to 21 (M = 17.5, SD = 2.04), 56.2% female, with 41% non-White. Participants completed self-report measures, met with a physician, and then completed a 14-module Internet intervention targeting the prevention of depression. Linear regression models indicated that several intervention factors (duration on website in days, the strength of the relationship with the physician, perceptions of ease of use, and the perceived relevance of the material presented) were significantly associated with greater reductions in depressive symptoms from baseline to follow-up. Automatic negative thoughts significantly mediated the relation between change in depressive symptoms scores and both duration of use and physician relationship. Several intervention variables predicted favorable changes in depressive symptom scores among adolescents who participated in an Internet-based prevention program, and the strength of two of these variables was mediated by automatic negative thoughts. These findings support the importance of cognitive factors in preventing adolescent depression and suggest that modifiable aspects of technology-based intervention experience and relationships should be considered in optimizing intervention design.

Prediction of exercise-mediated changes in metabolic markers by gene polymorphism.

PubMed

Kahara, Toshio; Takamura, Toshinari; Hayakawa, Tetsuo; Nagai, Yukihiro; Yamaguchi, Hiromi; Katsuki, Tatsuo; Katsuki, Ken-ichi; Katsuki, Michio; Kobayashi, Ken-ichi

2002-08-01

The effects of regular physical exercise on obesity-associated metabolic abnormalities vary for each individual. In this study, we investigated whether genotypes of genes associated with obesity can predict the effects of exercise on changes in metabolic markers in healthy men. Healthy Japanese men (n=106) performed the exercise program at 50% of their maximal heart rate for 20-60 min a day, 2-3 days each week for 3 months. The levels of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and serum leptin significantly decreased after the exercise program. Polymorphisms of the beta3-adrenergic receptor (beta3AR) and uncoupling protein-1 (UCP-1) genes were analyzed with RFLP methods. In the Trp/Trp genotype of the beta3AR gene, the levels of serum leptin, FPG and fructosamine (FrAm) decreased significantly after the exercise program, but not in the Arg/Arg genotype. In the AG heterozygote and the GG homozygote of the UCP-1 gene, FPG and FrAm levels were significantly reduced, respectively. In conclusion, gene polymorphism of the beta3AR and UCP-1 was found to be associated with the exercise-mediated improvement in glucose tolerance and leptin resistance in healthy Japanese men.

Feasibility of Forecasting Highway Safety in Support of Safety Incentive and Safety Target Programs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-11-01

Using the frequency of fatal crashes from the current observation period (e.g. month, year, etc.) as the : prediction of expected future performance does not account for changes in safety that result from : increases in exposure (population, addition...

Awareness Programs and Change in Taste-Based Caste Prejudice

PubMed Central

Banerjee, Ritwik; Datta Gupta, Nabanita

2015-01-01

Becker's theory of taste-based discrimination predicts that relative employment of the discriminated social group will improve if there is a decrease in the level of prejudice for the marginally discriminating employer. In this paper we experimentally test this prediction offered by Garry Becker in his seminal work on taste based discrimination, in the context of caste in India, with management students (potential employers in the near future) as subjects. First, we measure caste prejudice and show that awareness through a TV social program reduces implicit prejudice against the lower caste and the reduction is sustained over time. Second, we find that the treatment reduces the prejudice levels of those in the left tail of the prejudice distribution - the group which can potentially affect real outcomes as predicted by the theory. And finally, a larger share of the treatment group subjects exhibit favorable opinion about reservation in jobs for the lower caste. PMID:25902290

Awareness programs and change in taste-based caste prejudice.

PubMed

Banerjee, Ritwik; Datta Gupta, Nabanita

2015-01-01

Becker's theory of taste-based discrimination predicts that relative employment of the discriminated social group will improve if there is a decrease in the level of prejudice for the marginally discriminating employer. In this paper we experimentally test this prediction offered by Garry Becker in his seminal work on taste based discrimination, in the context of caste in India, with management students (potential employers in the near future) as subjects. First, we measure caste prejudice and show that awareness through a TV social program reduces implicit prejudice against the lower caste and the reduction is sustained over time. Second, we find that the treatment reduces the prejudice levels of those in the left tail of the prejudice distribution--the group which can potentially affect real outcomes as predicted by the theory. And finally, a larger share of the treatment group subjects exhibit favorable opinion about reservation in jobs for the lower caste.

Sea Ice Prediction Has Easy and Difficult Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Cutler, Matthew; Kay, Jennifer; Meier, Walter N.; Stroeve, Julienne; Wiggins, Helen

2014-01-01

Arctic sea ice follows an annual cycle, reaching its low point in September each year. The extent of sea ice remaining at this low point has been trending downwards for decades as the Arctic warms. Around the long-term downward trend, however, there is significant variation in the minimum extent from one year to the next. Accurate forecasts of yearly conditions would have great value to Arctic residents, shipping companies, and other stakeholders and are the subject of much current research. Since 2008 the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook) organized by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program) has invited predictions of the September Arctic sea ice minimum extent, which are contributed from the Arctic research community. Individual predictions, based on a variety of approaches, are solicited in three cycles each year in early June, July, and August. (SEARCH 2013).

Effects of aging on action-intentional programming.

PubMed

Shoraka, Ali R; Otzel, Dana M; M Zilli, Eduardo; Finney, Glen R; Doty, Leilani; Falchook, Adam D; Heilman, Kenneth M

2018-03-01

Action-intentional programs control "when" we initiate, inhibit, continue, and stop motor actions. The purpose of this study was to learn if there are changes in the action-intentional system with healthy aging, and if these changes are asymmetrical (right versus left upper limb) or related to impaired interhemispheric communication. We administered tests of action-intention to 41 middle-aged and older adults (61.9 ± 12.3 years). Regression analyses revealed that older age predicted a decrement in performance for tests of crossed motor response inhibition as well as slower motor initiation with the left hand. Changes in action-intention with aging appear to be related to alterations of interhemispheric communication and/or age-related right hemisphere dysfunction; however, further research is needed to identify the mechanisms for age-related changes in the brain networks that mediate action-intention.

Systems Training for Emotional Predictability and Problem Solving Program and Emotion Dysregulation: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Boccalon, Silvia; Alesiani, Roberta; Giarolli, Laura; Fossati, Andrea

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to assess the observed changes on emotion dysregulation obtained through the Systems Training for Emotional Predictability and Problem Solving (STEPPS) program. The sample is composed of 24 subjects with a personality disorder with borderline features. All participants filled out the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS). There was a significant decrease in the DERS total score at the end of the treatment and at 6-month follow-up. Friedman test showed a significant decrease in suicide attempts and hospitalizations over time. The analysis of the DERS subscales showed that "goals" and "impulse" were the two dimensions on which the treatment acted and the changes were stable over time. STEPPS is associated with an improvement in emotion regulation and a reduction in the number of hospitalizations and suicide attempts. The treatment seems to act on the behavioral dimensions of emotion dysregulation like the ability to control impulsive behaviors and to achieve goals.

Testing a Longitudinal Integrated Self-Efficacy and Self-Determination Theory Model for Physical Activity Post-Cardiac Rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Sweet, Shane N.; Fortier, Michelle S.; Strachan, Shaelyn M.; Blanchard, Chris M.; Boulay, Pierre

2014-01-01

Self-determination theory and self-efficacy theory are prominent theories in the physical activity literature, and studies have begun integrating their concepts. Sweet, Fortier, Strachan and Blanchard (2012) have integrated these two theories in a cross-sectional study. Therefore, this study sought to test a longitudinal integrated model to predict physical activity at the end of a 4-month cardiac rehabilitation program based on theory, research and Sweet et al.’s cross-sectional model. Participants from two cardiac rehabilitation programs (N=109) answered validated self-report questionnaires at baseline, two and four months. Data were analyzed using Amos to assess the path analysis and model fit. Prior to integration, perceived competence and self-efficacy were combined, and labeled as confidence. After controlling for 2-month physical activity and cardiac rehabilitation site, no motivational variables significantly predicted residual change in 4-month physical activity. Although confidence at two months did not predict residual change in 4-month physical activity, it had a strong positive relationship with 2-month physical activity (β=0.30, P<0.001). The overall model retained good fit indices. In conclusion, results diverged from theoretical predictions of physical activity, but self-determination and self-efficacy theory were still partially supported. Because the model had good fit, this study demonstrated that theoretical integration is feasible. PMID:26973926

Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal

PubMed Central

Jueterbock, Alexander; Tyberghein, Lennert; Verbruggen, Heroen; Coyer, James A; Olsen, Jeanine L; Hoarau, Galice

2013-01-01

The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600 km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertidal foundation species. We asked the question: Where will climate change have the greatest impact on three foundational, macroalgal species that occur along North-Atlantic shores: Fucus serratus, Fucus vesiculosus, and Ascophyllum nodosum? To predict distributional changes of these key species under three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) over the coming two centuries, we generated Ecological Niche Models with the program MAXENT. Model predictions suggest that these three species will shift northwards as an assemblage or “unit” and that phytogeographic changes will be most pronounced in the southern Arctic and the southern temperate provinces. Our models predict that Arctic shores in Canada, Greenland, and Spitsbergen will become suitable for all three species by 2100. Shores south of 45° North will become unsuitable for at least two of the three focal species on both the Northwest- and Northeast-Atlantic coasts by 2200. If these foundational species are unable to adapt to the rising temperatures, they will lose their centers of genetic diversity and their loss will trigger an unpredictable shift in the North-Atlantic intertidal ecosystem. PMID:23762521

Does Classification of Chronic Musculoskeletal Disorder Patients Into Psychosocial Subgroups Predict Differential Treatment Responsiveness and 1-Year Outcomes After a Functional Restoration Program?

PubMed

Asih, Sali; Mayer, Tom G; Williams, Mark; Choi, Yun Hee; Gatchel, Robert J

2015-12-01

The objectives of this study: (1) to assess whether Multidimensional Pain Inventory (MPI) profiles predicted differential responses to a functional restoration program (FRP) in chronic disabling occupational musculoskeletal disorder (CDOMD) patients; (2) to examine whether coping style improves following FRP; and (3) to determine whether discharge MPI profiles predict discharge psychosocial and 1-year socioeconomic outcomes. Consecutive CDOMD patients (N=716) were classified into Adaptive Coper (AC, n=209), Interpersonally Distressed (ID, n=154), Dysfunctional (DYS, n=310), and Anomalous (n=43) using the MPI, and reclassified at discharge. Profiles were compared on psychosocial measures and 1-year socioeconomic outcomes. An intent-to-treat sample analyzed the effect of drop-outs on treatment responsiveness. The MPI classification significantly predicted program completion (P=0.001), although the intent-to-treat analyses found no significant effects of drop-out on treatment responsiveness. There was a significant increase in the number of patients who became AC or Anomalous at FRP discharge and a decrease in those who were ID or DYS. Patients who changed or remained as DYS at FRP discharge reported the highest levels of pain, disability, and depression. No significant interaction effect was found between MPI group and time for pain intensity or disability. All groups improved on psychosocial measures at discharge. DYS patients had decreased work retention and a greater health care utilization at 1 year. An FRP was clinically effective for CDOMD patients regardless of initial MPI profiles. The FRP modified profiles, with patients changing from negative to positive profiles. Discharge DYS were more likely to have poor 1-year outcomes. Those classified as Anomalous had a good prognosis for functional recovery similar to ACs.

Composite Nanomechanics: A Mechanistic Properties Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Handler, Louis M.; Manderscheid, Jane M.

2007-01-01

A unique mechanistic theory is described to predict the properties of nanocomposites. The theory is based on composite micromechanics with progressive substructuring down to a nanoscale slice of a nanofiber where all the governing equations are formulated. These equations hav e been programmed in a computer code. That computer code is used to predict 25 properties of a mononanofiber laminate. The results are pr esented graphically and discussed with respect to their practical sig nificance. Most of the results show smooth distributions. Results for matrix-dependent properties show bimodal through-the-thickness distr ibution with discontinuous changes from mode to mode.

Exercise Experiences and Changes in Affective Attitude: Direct and Indirect Effects of In Situ Measurements of Experiences

PubMed Central

Sudeck, Gorden; Schmid, Julia; Conzelmann, Achim

2016-01-01

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between exercise experiences (perceptions of competence, perceived exertion, acute affective responses to exercise) and affective attitudes toward exercise. This relationship was analyzed in a non-laboratory setting during a 13-weeks exercise program. Materials and Methods: 56 women and 49 men (aged 35–65 years; Mage = 50.0 years; SD = 8.2 years) took part in the longitudinal study. Affective responses to exercise (affective valence, positive activation, calmness) as well as perceptions of competence and perceived exertion were measured at the beginning, during, and end of three exercise sessions within the 13-weeks exercise program. Affective attitude toward exercise were measured before and at the end of the exercise program. A two-level path analysis was conducted. The direct and indirect effects of exercise experiences on changes in affective attitude were analyzed on the between-person level: firstly, it was tested whether perceptions of competence and perceived exertion directly relate to changes in affective attitude. Secondly, it was assessed whether perceptions of competence and perceived exertion indirectly relate to changes in affective attitudes—imparted via the affective response during exercise. Results and Conclusion: At the between-person level, a direct effect on changes in affective attitude was found for perceptions of competence (β = 0.24, p < 0.05). The model revealed one significant indirect pathway between perceived exertion and changes in affective attitude via positive activation: on average, the less strenuous people perceive physical exercise to be, the more awake they will feel during exercise (β = -0.57, p < 0.05). Those people with higher average levels of positive activation during exercise exhibit more improvements in affective attitudes toward exercise from the beginning to the end of the 13-weeks exercise program (β = 0.24, p < 0.05). Main study results have revealed that in situ experiences predicted changes in affective attitude during multi-week exercise programs. These relevant in situ experiences encompass cognitive factors, the sensation of interoceptive cues, and affective responses to exercise. Considering the predictive role of affective attitudes for exercise behavior, these findings suggest that exercise interventions should put greater emphasis on specific exercise experiences. PMID:27378992

Creating a Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) for science and conservation applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Poppenga, Sandra K.; Gesch, Dean B.; Palaseanu-Lovejoy, Monica; Barras, John; Evans, Gayla A.; Gibbs, Ann

2016-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is creating the Coastal National Elevation Database, an expanding set of topobathymetric elevation models that extend seamlessly across coastal regions of high societal or ecological significance in the United States that are undergoing rapid change or are threatened by inundation hazards. Topobathymetric elevation models are raster datasets useful for inundation prediction and other earth science applications, such as the development of sediment-transport and storm surge models. These topobathymetric elevation models are being constructed by the broad regional assimilation of numerous topographic and bathymetric datasets, and are intended to fulfill the pressing needs of decision makers establishing policies for hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness, coastal managers tasked with coastal planning compatible with predictions of inundation due to sea-level rise, and scientists investigating processes of coastal geomorphic change. A key priority of this coastal elevation mapping effort is to foster collaborative lidar acquisitions that meet the standards of the USGS National Geospatial Program's 3D Elevation Program, a nationwide initiative to systematically collect high-quality elevation data. The focus regions are located in highly dynamic environments, for example in areas subject to shoreline change, rapid wetland loss, hurricane impacts such as overwash and wave scouring, and/or human-induced changes to coastal topography.

Prediction of residual feed intake for first-lactation dairy cows using orthogonal polynomial random regression.

PubMed

Manafiazar, G; McFadden, T; Goonewardene, L; Okine, E; Basarab, J; Li, P; Wang, Z

2013-01-01

Residual Feed Intake (RFI) is a measure of energy efficiency. Developing an appropriate model to predict expected energy intake while accounting for multifunctional energy requirements of metabolic body weight (MBW), empty body weight (EBW), milk production energy requirements (MPER), and their nonlinear lactation profiles, is the key to successful prediction of RFI in dairy cattle. Individual daily actual energy intake and monthly body weight of 281 first-lactation dairy cows from 1 to 305 d in milk were recorded at the Dairy Research and Technology Centre of the University of Alberta (Edmonton, AB, Canada); individual monthly milk yield and compositions were obtained from the Dairy Herd Improvement Program. Combinations of different orders (1-5) of fixed (F) and random (R) factors were fitted using Legendre polynomial regression to model the nonlinear lactation profiles of MBW, EBW, and MPER over 301 d. The F5R3, F5R3, and F5R2 (subscripts indicate the order fitted) models were selected, based on the combination of the log-likelihood ratio test and the Bayesian information criterion, as the best prediction equations for MBW, EBW, and MPER, respectively. The selected models were used to predict daily individual values for these traits. To consider the body reserve changes, the differences of predicted EBW between 2 consecutive days were considered as the EBW change between these days. The smoothed total 301-d actual energy intake was then linearly regressed on the total 301-d predicted traits of MBW, EBW change, and MPER to obtain the first-lactation RFI (coefficient of determination=0.68). The mean of predicted daily average lactation RFI was 0 and ranged from -6.58 to 8.64 Mcal of NE(L)/d. Fifty-one percent of the animals had an RFI value below the mean (efficient) and 49% of them had an RFI value above the mean (inefficient). These results indicate that the first-lactation RFI can be predicted from its component traits with a reasonable coefficient of determination. The predicted RFI could be used in the dairy breeding program to increase profitability by selecting animals that are genetically superior in energy efficiency based on RFI, or through routinely measured traits, which are genetically correlated with RFI. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Insects in fluctuating thermal environments.

PubMed

Colinet, Hervé; Sinclair, Brent J; Vernon, Philippe; Renault, David

2015-01-07

All climate change scenarios predict an increase in both global temperature means and the magnitude of seasonal and diel temperature variation. The nonlinear relationship between temperature and biological processes means that fluctuating temperatures lead to physiological, life history, and ecological consequences for ectothermic insects that diverge from those predicted from constant temperatures. Fluctuating temperatures that remain within permissive temperature ranges generally improve performance. By contrast, those which extend to stressful temperatures may have either positive impacts, allowing repair of damage accrued during exposure to thermal extremes, or negative impacts from cumulative damage during successive exposures. We discuss the mechanisms underlying these differing effects. Fluctuating temperatures could be used to enhance or weaken insects in applied rearing programs, and any prediction of insect performance in the field-including models of climate change or population performance-must account for the effect of fluctuating temperatures.

A mathematical model of electrolyte and fluid transport across corneal endothelium.

PubMed

Fischbarg, J; Diecke, F P J

2005-01-01

To predict the behavior of a transporting epithelium by intuitive means can be complex and frustrating. As the number of parameters to be considered increases beyond a few, the task can be termed impossible. The alternative is to model epithelial behavior by mathematical means. For that to be feasible, it has been presumed that a large amount of experimental information is required, so as to be able to use known values for the majority of kinetic parameters. However, in the present case, we are modeling corneal endothelial behavior beginning with experimental values for only five of eleven parameters. The remaining parameter values are calculated assuming cellular steady state and using algebraic software. With that as base, as in preceding treatments but with a distribution of channels/transporters suited to the endothelium, temporal cell and tissue behavior are computed by a program written in Basic that monitors changes in chemical and electrical driving forces across cell membranes and the paracellular pathway. We find that the program reproduces quite well the behaviors experimentally observed for the translayer electrical potential difference and rate of fluid transport, (a) in the steady state, (b) after perturbations by changes in ambient conditions HCO3-, Na+, and Cl- concentrations), and (c) after challenge by inhibitors (ouabain, DIDS, Na+- and Cl(-)-channel inhibitors). In addition, we have used the program to compare predictions of translayer fluid transport by two competing theories, electro-osmosis and local osmosis. Only predictions using electro-osmosis fit all the experimental data.

Indicators of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) career interest among middle school students in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, Leila A.

This study examines middle school students' perceptions of a future career in a science, math, engineering, or technology (STEM) career field. Gender, grade, predispositions to STEM contents, and learner dispositions are examined for changing perceptions and development in career-related choice behavior. Student perceptions as measured by validated measurement instruments are analyzed pre and post participation in a STEM intervention energy-monitoring program that was offered in several U.S. middle schools during the 2009-2010, 2010-2011 school years. A multiple linear regression (MLR) model, developed by incorporating predictors identified by an examination of the literature and a hypothesis-generating pilot study for prediction of STEM career interest, is introduced. Theories on the career choice development process from authors such as Ginzberg, Eccles, and Lent are examined as the basis for recognition of career concept development among students. Multiple linear regression statistics, correlation analysis, and analyses of means are used to examine student data from two separate program years. Study research questions focus on predictive ability, RSQ, of MLR models by gender/grade, and significance of model predictors in order to determine the most significant predictors of STEM career interest, and changes in students' perceptions pre and post program participation. Analysis revealed increases in the perceptions of a science career, decreases in perceptions of a STEM career, increase of the significance of science and mathematics to predictive models, and significant increases in students' perceptions of creative tendencies.

Continued development and correlation of analytically based weight estimation codes for wings and fuselages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mullen, J., Jr.

1978-01-01

The implementation of the changes to the program for Wing Aeroelastic Design and the development of a program to estimate aircraft fuselage weights are described. The equations to implement the modified planform description, the stiffened panel skin representation, the trim loads calculation, and the flutter constraint approximation are presented. A comparison of the wing model with the actual F-5A weight material distributions and loads is given. The equations and program techniques used for the estimation of aircraft fuselage weights are described. These equations were incorporated as a computer code. The weight predictions of this program are compared with data from the C-141.

Building addiction recovery capital through online participation in a recovery community.

PubMed

Bliuc, Ana-Maria; Best, David; Iqbal, Muhammad; Upton, Katie

2017-11-01

This study examines how online participation in a community of recovery contributes to personal journeys of recovery. It investigates whether recovery capital building - as indicated by increased levels and quality of online social interactions - and markers of positive identity development predict retention in a recovery program designed around fostering community involvement for early stage recovery addicts. It was predicted that online participation on the group's Facebook page and positive identity development are associated to retention in the program. To map how participants interact online, social network analysis (SNA) based on naturally occurring online data (N = 609) on the Facebook page of a recovery community was conducted. Computerised linguistic analyses evaluated sentiment of the textual data (capturing social identity markers). Linear regression analyses evaluated whether indicators of recovery capital predict program retention. To illustrate the findings in the context of the specific recovery community, presented are two case studies of key participants who moved from the periphery to the centre of the social network. By conducting in-depth interviews with these participants, personal experiences of engagement in the online community of group members who have undergone the most significant changes since joining the community are explored. Retention in the program was determined by a) the number of comment 'likes' and all 'likes' received on the Facebook page; b) position in the social network (degree of centrality); and c) linguistic content around group identity and achievement. Positive online interactions between members of recovery communities support the recovery process through helping participants to develop recovery capital that binds them to groups supportive of positive change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Prospective Relationships Among Intrinsic Motivation, Neurocognition, and Psychosocial Functioning in Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Nakagami, Eri; Hoe, Maanse; Brekke, John S.

2010-01-01

To address significant gaps in our understanding about how neurocognition, intrinsic motivation (IM), and psychosocial functioning are interrelated in schizophrenia, this study investigated the following questions: Is IM stable or dynamic over time? Does neurocognition predict change in IM over time? What is the association between change in neurocognition, change in IM, and change in psychosocial functioning? Finally, what is the causal structure of the relationships among neurocognition, IM, and psychosocial functioning over time? One hundred and thirty individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder were recruited from 4 community-based psychosocial rehabilitation programs in urban Los Angeles. Measures of neurocognition were taken at baseline and 12 months. Measures of IM, psychosocial functioning, and symptoms were taken at baseline, 6, and 12 months. Results of latent growth curve modeling analyses demonstrated that IM is dynamic over time. Baseline neurocognition was associated with the initial level of IM but did not predict the rate of change in motivation. However, baseline levels of IM predicted rates of subsequent improvement in neurocognition. Change in IM was strongly associated with change in psychosocial functioning, and change in neurocognition was associated with change in psychosocial functioning, but change in IM was not associated with change in neurocognition. Latent difference score analyses revealed that neurocognition caused changes in psychosocial functioning, and psychosocial functioning caused changes in IM. These findings improve our fundamental understanding of the relationships among these variables and contribute to intervention development for improving outcomes in schizophrenia. PMID:20462998

Evaluating watershed protection programs in New York City's Cannonsville Reservoir source watershed using SWAT-HS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Moore, K. E.; Owens, E. M.; Steenhuis, T. S.

2017-12-01

New York City (NYC)'s reservoirs supply over one billion gallons of drinking water each day to over nine million consumers in NYC and upstate communities. The City has invested more than $1.5 billion in watershed protection programs to maintain a waiver from filtration for the Catskill and Delaware Systems. In the last 25 years, the NYC Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) has implemented programs in cooperation with upstate communities that include nutrient management, crop rotations, improvement of barnyards and manure storage, implementing tertiary treatment for Phosphorus (P) in wastewater treatment plants, and replacing failed septic systems in an effort to reduce P loads to water supply reservoirs. There have been several modeling studies evaluating the effect of agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) on P control in the Cannonsville watershed in the Delaware System. Although these studies showed that BMPs would reduce dissolved P losses, they were limited to farm-scale or watershed-scale estimates of reduction factors without consideration of the dynamic nature of overland flow and P losses from variable source areas. Recently, we developed the process-based SWAT-Hillslope (SWAT-HS) model, a modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that can realistically predict variable source runoff processes. The objective of this study is to use the SWAT-HS model to evaluate watershed protection programs addressing both point and non-point sources of P. SWAT-HS predicts streamflow very well for the Cannonsville watershed with a daily Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.85 at the watershed outlet and NSE values ranging from 0.56 - 0.82 at five other locations within the watershed. Based on good hydrological prediction, we applied the model to predict P loads using detailed P inputs that change over time due to the implementation of watershed protection programs. Results from P model predictions provide improved projections of P loads and form a basis for evaluating the cumulative and individual effects of watershed protection programs.

Predicting changes in hypertension control using electronic health records from a chronic disease management program

PubMed Central

Sun, Jimeng; McNaughton, Candace D; Zhang, Ping; Perer, Adam; Gkoulalas-Divanis, Aris; Denny, Joshua C; Kirby, Jacqueline; Lasko, Thomas; Saip, Alexander; Malin, Bradley A

2014-01-01

Objective Common chronic diseases such as hypertension are costly and difficult to manage. Our ultimate goal is to use data from electronic health records to predict the risk and timing of deterioration in hypertension control. Towards this goal, this work predicts the transition points at which hypertension is brought into, as well as pushed out of, control. Method In a cohort of 1294 patients with hypertension enrolled in a chronic disease management program at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, patients are modeled as an array of features derived from the clinical domain over time, which are distilled into a core set using an information gain criteria regarding their predictive performance. A model for transition point prediction was then computed using a random forest classifier. Results The most predictive features for transitions in hypertension control status included hypertension assessment patterns, comorbid diagnoses, procedures and medication history. The final random forest model achieved a c-statistic of 0.836 (95% CI 0.830 to 0.842) and an accuracy of 0.773 (95% CI 0.766 to 0.780). Conclusions This study achieved accurate prediction of transition points of hypertension control status, an important first step in the long-term goal of developing personalized hypertension management plans. PMID:24045907

Predicting changes in hypertension control using electronic health records from a chronic disease management program.

PubMed

Sun, Jimeng; McNaughton, Candace D; Zhang, Ping; Perer, Adam; Gkoulalas-Divanis, Aris; Denny, Joshua C; Kirby, Jacqueline; Lasko, Thomas; Saip, Alexander; Malin, Bradley A

2014-01-01

Common chronic diseases such as hypertension are costly and difficult to manage. Our ultimate goal is to use data from electronic health records to predict the risk and timing of deterioration in hypertension control. Towards this goal, this work predicts the transition points at which hypertension is brought into, as well as pushed out of, control. In a cohort of 1294 patients with hypertension enrolled in a chronic disease management program at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, patients are modeled as an array of features derived from the clinical domain over time, which are distilled into a core set using an information gain criteria regarding their predictive performance. A model for transition point prediction was then computed using a random forest classifier. The most predictive features for transitions in hypertension control status included hypertension assessment patterns, comorbid diagnoses, procedures and medication history. The final random forest model achieved a c-statistic of 0.836 (95% CI 0.830 to 0.842) and an accuracy of 0.773 (95% CI 0.766 to 0.780). This study achieved accurate prediction of transition points of hypertension control status, an important first step in the long-term goal of developing personalized hypertension management plans.

International Low-Earth-Orbit Spacecraft Materials Test Program Initiated for Better Prediction of Durability and Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutledge, Sharon K.

1999-01-01

Spacecraft in low Earth orbit (LEO) are subjected to many components of the environment, which can cause them to degrade much more rapidly than intended and greatly shorten their functional life. The atomic oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, and cross contamination present in LEO can affect sensitive surfaces such as thermal control paints, multilayer insulation, solar array surfaces, and optical surfaces. The LEO Spacecraft Materials Test (LEO-SMT) program is being conducted to assess the effects of simulated LEO exposure on current spacecraft materials to increase understanding of LEO degradation processes as well as to enable the prediction of in-space performance and durability. Using ground-based simulation facilities to test the durability of materials currently flying in LEO will allow researchers to compare the degradation evidenced in the ground-based facilities with that evidenced on orbit. This will allow refinement of ground laboratory test systems and the development of algorithms to predict the durability and performance of new materials in LEO from ground test results. Accurate predictions based on ground tests could reduce development costs and increase reliability. The wide variety of national and international materials being tested represent materials being functionally used on spacecraft in LEO. The more varied the types of materials tested, the greater the probability that researchers will develop and validate predictive models for spacecraft long-term performance and durability. Organizations that are currently participating in the program are ITT Research Institute (USA), Lockheed Martin (USA), MAP (France), SOREQ Nuclear Research Center (Israel), TNO Institute of Applied Physics (The Netherlands), and UBE Industries, Ltd. (Japan). These represent some of the major suppliers of thermal control and sensor materials currently flying in LEO. The participants provide materials that are exposed to selected levels of atomic oxygen, vacuum ultraviolet radiation, contamination, or synergistic combined environments at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Changes in characteristics that could affect mission performance or lifetime are then measured. These characteristics include changes in mass, solar absorptance, and thermal emittance. The durability of spacecraft materials from U.S. suppliers is then compared with those of materials from other participating countries. Lewis will develop and validate performance and durability prediction models using this ground data and available space data. NASA welcomes the opportunity to consider additional international participants in this program, which should greatly aid future spacecraft designers as they select materials for LEO missions.

Callus remodelling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miodowska, Justyna; Bielski, Jan; Kromka-Szydek, Magdalena

2018-01-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the healing process of the callus using bone remodelling approach. A new mathematical model of bone remodelling is proposed including both underload and overload resorption, as well as equilibrium and bone growth states. The created model is used to predict the stress-stimulated change in the callus density. The permanent and intermittent loading programs are considered. The analyses indicate that obtaining a sufficiently high values of the callus density (and hence the elasticity) modulus is only possible using time-varying load parameters. The model predictions also show that intermittent loading program causes delayed callus healing. Understanding how mechanical conditions influence callus remodelling process may be relevant in the bone fracture treatment and initial bone loading during rehabilitation.

Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program: supporting climate science and enhancing climate services in Pacific Island Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy; Jones, David; Hendon, Harry; Charles, Andrew; Shelton, Kay; de Wit, Roald; Cottrill, Andrew; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Seuseu, Sunny; Kaniaha, Salesa

2013-04-01

Over the past few years, significant progress in developing climate science for the Pacific has been achieved through a number of research projects undertaken under the Australian government International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI). Climate change has major impact on Pacific Island Countries and advancement in understanding past, present and futures climate in the region is vital for island nation to develop adaptation strategies to their rapidly changing environment. This new science is now supporting new services for a wide range of stakeholders in the Pacific through the National Meteorological Agencies of the region. Seasonal climate prediction is particularly important for planning in agriculture, tourism and other weather-sensitive industries, with operational services provided by all National Meteorological Services in the region. The interaction between climate variability and climate change, for example during droughts or very warm seasons, means that much of the early impacts of climate change are being felt through seasonal variability. A means to reduce these impacts is to improve forecasts to support decision making. Historically, seasonal climate prediction has been developed based on statistical past relationship. Statistical methods relate meteorological variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) to indices which describe large-scale environment (e.g. ENSO indices) using historical data. However, with observed climate change, statistical approaches based on historical data are getting less accurate and less reliable. Recognising the value of seasonal forecasts, we have used outputs of a dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia), to develop web-based information tools (http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/index.shtml) which are now used by climate services in 15 partner countries in the Pacific for preparing seasonal climate outlooks. Initial comparison conducted during 2012 has shown that the predictive skill of POAMA is consistently higher than skill of statistical-based method. Presently, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program, we are developing dynamical model-based seasonal climate prediction for climate extremes. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones which are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas of Australia and Pacific Island Countries. To analyse historical cyclone data, we developed a consolidate archive for the Southern Hemisphere and North-Western Pacific (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/). Using dynamical climate models (POAMA and Japan Meteorological Agency's model), we work on improving accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved seasonal climate prediction based on dynamical models will further enhance climate services in Australia and Pacific Island Countries.

Enhancing seasonal climate prediction capacity for the Pacific countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Hendon, H.; Charles, A.; Cottrill, A.; Lim, E.-P.; Langford, S.; de Wit, R.; Shelton, K.

2012-04-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability is a major factor in determining the vulnerability of many Pacific Island Countries to climate change and there is need to improve weekly to seasonal range climate prediction capabilities beyond what is currently available from statistical models. In the seasonal climate prediction project under the Australian Government's Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP), we describe a comprehensive project to strengthen the climate prediction capacities in National Meteorological Services in 14 Pacific Island Countries and East Timor. The intent is particularly to reduce the vulnerability of current services to a changing climate, and improve the overall level of information available assist with managing climate variability. Statistical models cannot account for aspects of climate variability and change that are not represented in the historical record. In contrast, dynamical physics-based models implicitly include the effects of a changing climate whatever its character or cause and can predict outcomes not seen previously. The transition from a statistical to a dynamical prediction system provides more valuable and applicable climate information to a wide range of climate sensitive sectors throughout the countries of the Pacific region. In this project, we have developed seasonal climate outlooks which are based upon the current dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia) seasonal forecast system. At present, meteorological services of the Pacific Island Countries largely employ statistical models for seasonal outlooks. Outcomes of the PASAP project enhanced capabilities of the Pacific Island Countries in seasonal prediction providing National Meteorological Services with an additional tool to analyse meteorological variables such as sea surface temperatures, air temperature, pressure and rainfall using POAMA outputs and prepare more accurate seasonal climate outlooks.

Predictors of dropout in an outpatient treatment for problem drinkers including cognitive-behavioral therapy and the opioid antagonist naltrexone.

PubMed

Vuoristo-Myllys, Salla; Lahti, Jari; Alho, Hannu; Julkunen, Juhani

2013-11-01

This study investigated predictors of dropout in an outpatient treatment program for problem drinking that included individual cognitive-behavioral therapy combined with naltrexone. Specifically, we investigated whether sociodemographic factors, severity of alcohol dependence, history of problem drinking, or intensity of alcohol craving assessed at the beginning of the treatment predicted dropout from an outpatient program among a sample of 372 patients (65% male). We also investigated whether the effectiveness of the treatment (the change in alcohol consumption and symptoms of alcohol craving) or adherence to naltrexone was related to dropout. Predictors of dropout were investigated using an analysis of covariance with the number of attended treatment sessions as an independent variable. Our results demonstrated that the treatment entry factors predictive of dropout were younger age, lower severity of alcohol dependence, better ability to resist and control alcohol use, and lower obsession with alcohol. In addition, those who dropped out were more likely to begin the program by abstaining from alcohol and had lower adherence to naltrexone use than those who completed the program. The length of stay for treatment was not related to change in alcohol consumption. Patients with less severe alcohol-related problems may lack motivation for treatment, specifically cognitive-behavioral therapy and naltrexone. These patients may benefit more from less intensive treatments.

Past, Present, and Future: A Science Program for the Arctic Ocean Linking Ancient and Contemporary Observations of Change Through Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coakley, Bernard; Edmonds, Henrietta N.; Frey, Karen; Gascard, Jean-Claude; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Kassens, Heidemarie; Thiede, Jörn; Wegner, Carolyn

2007-07-01

A follow-up to the 2nd International Conference on Arctic Research Planning, 19-21 November 2007, Potsdam, Germany The Arctic Ocean is the missing piece for any global model. Records of processes at both long and short timescales will be necessary to predict the future evolution of the Arctic Ocean through what appears to be a period of rapid climate change. Ocean monitoring is impoverished without the long-timescale records available from paleoceanography and the boundary conditions that can be obtained from marine geology and geophysics. The past and the present are the key to our ability to predict the future.

Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

2003-01-01

A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Clinician impression versus prescription drug monitoring program criteria in the assessment of drug-seeking behavior in the emergency department.

PubMed

Weiner, Scott G; Griggs, Christopher A; Mitchell, Patricia M; Langlois, Breanne K; Friedman, Franklin D; Moore, Rebecca L; Lin, Shuo Cheng; Nelson, Kerrie P; Feldman, James A

2013-10-01

We compare emergency provider impression of drug-seeking behavior with objective criteria from a state prescription drug monitoring program, assess change in opioid pain reliever prescribing after prescription drug monitoring program review, and examine clinical factors associated with suspected drug-seeking behavior. This was a prospective observational study of emergency providers assessing a convenience sample of patients aged 18 to 64 years who presented to either of 2 academic medical centers with chief complaint of back pain, dental pain, or headache. Drug-seeking behavior was objectively defined as present when a patient had greater than or equal to 4 opioid prescriptions by greater than or equal to 4 providers in the 12 months before emergency department evaluation. Emergency providers completed data forms recording their impression of the likelihood of drug-seeking behavior, patient characteristics, and plan for prescribing pre- and post-prescription drug monitoring program review. Descriptive statistics were generated. We calculated agreement between emergency provider impression of drug-seeking behavior and prescription drug monitoring program definition, and sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of emergency provider impression, using prescription drug monitoring program criteria as the criterion standard. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine clinical factors associated with drug-seeking behavior. Thirty-eight emergency providers with prescription drug monitoring program access participated. There were 544 patient visits entered into the study from June 2011 to January 2013. There was fair agreement between emergency provider impression of drug-seeking behavior and prescription drug monitoring program (κ=0.30). Emergency providers had sensitivity 63.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 54.8% to 71.7%), specificity 72.7% (95% CI 68.4% to 77.0%), and positive predictive value 41.2% (95% CI 34.4% to 48.2%) for identifying drug-seeking behavior. After exposure to prescription drug monitoring program data, emergency providers changed plans to prescribe opioids at discharge in 9.5% of cases (95% CI 7.3% to 12.2%), with 6.5% of patients (n=35) receiving opioids not previously planned and 3.0% (n=16) no longer receiving opioids. Predictors for drug-seeking behavior by prescription drug monitoring program criteria were patient requests opioid medications by name (odds ratio [OR] 1.91; 95% CI 1.13 to 3.23), multiple visits for same complaint (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.49 to 4.18), suspicious history (OR 1.88; 95% CI 1.1 to 3.19), symptoms out of proportion to examination (OR 1.83; 95% CI 1.1 to 3.03), and hospital site (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.76 to 5.44). Emergency providers had fair agreement with objective criteria from the prescription drug monitoring program in suspecting drug-seeking behavior. Program review changed management plans in a small number of cases. Multiple clinical factors were predictive of drug-seeking behavior. Copyright © 2013 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Six-Month Changes in Spirituality and Religiousness in Alcoholics Predict Drinking Outcomes at Nine Months*

PubMed Central

Robinson, Elizabeth A. R.; Krentzman, Amy R.; Webb, Jon R.; Brower, Kirk J.

2011-01-01

Objective: Although spiritual change is hypothesized to contribute to recovery from alcohol dependence, few studies have used prospective data to investigate this hypothesis. Prior studies have also been limited to treatment-seeking and Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) samples. This study included alcohol-dependent individuals, both in treatment and not, to investigate the effect of spiritual and religious (SR) change on subsequent drinking outcomes, independent of AA involvement. Method: Alcoholics (N = 364) were recruited for a panel study from two abstinence-based treatment centers, a moderation drinking program, and untreated individuals from the local community. Quantitative measures of SR change between baseline and 6 months were used to predict 9-month drinking outcomes, controlling for baseline drinking and AA involvement. Results: Significant 6-month changes in 8 of 12 SR measures were found, which included private SR practices, beliefs, daily spiritual experiences, three measures of forgiveness, negative religious coping, and purpose in life. Increases in private SR practices and forgiveness of self were the strongest predictors of improvements in drinking outcomes. Changes in daily spiritual experiences, purpose in life, a general measure of forgiveness, and negative religious coping also predicted favorable drinking outcomes. Conclusions: SR change predicted good drinking outcomes in alcoholics, even when controlling for AA involvement. SR variables, broadly defined, deserve attention in fostering change even among those who do not affiliate with AA or religious institutions. Last, future research should include SR variables, particularly various types of forgiveness, given the strong effects found for forgiveness of self. PMID:21683048

Impact of active controls technology on structural integrity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noll, Thomas; Austin, Edward; Donley, Shawn; Graham, George; Harris, Terry

1991-01-01

This paper summarizes the findings of The Technical Cooperation Program to assess the impact of active controls technology on the structural integrity of aeronautical vehicles and to evaluate the present state-of-the-art for predicting the loads caused by a flight-control system modification and the resulting change in the fatigue life of the flight vehicle. The potential for active controls to adversely affect structural integrity is described, and load predictions obtained using two state-of-the-art analytical methods are given.

Predictiveness of Disease Risk in a Global Outreach Tourist Setting in Thailand Using Meteorological Data and Vector-Borne Disease Incidences

PubMed Central

Ninphanomchai, Suwannapa; Chansang, Chitti; Hii, Yien Ling; Rocklöv, Joacim; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2014-01-01

Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate. PMID:25325356

Predictiveness of disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting in Thailand using meteorological data and vector-borne disease incidences.

PubMed

Ninphanomchai, Suwannapa; Chansang, Chitti; Hii, Yien Ling; Rocklöv, Joacim; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2014-10-16

Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate.

NASA Earth Observations Informing Renewable Energy Management and Policy Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckman, Richard S.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

2008-01-01

The NASA Applied Sciences Program partners with domestic and international governmental organizations, universities, and private entities to improve their decisions and assessments. These improvements are enabled by using the knowledge generated from research resulting from spacecraft observations and model predictions conducted by NASA and providing these as inputs to the decision support and scenario assessment tools used by partner organizations. The Program is divided into eight societal benefit areas, aligned in general with the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) themes. The Climate Application of the Applied Sciences Program has as one of its focuses, efforts to provide for improved decisions and assessments in the areas of renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency, and climate change impacts. The goals of the Applied Sciences Program are aligned with national initiatives such as the U.S. Climate Change Science and Technology Programs and with those of international organizations including the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). Activities within the Program are funded principally through proposals submitted in response to annual solicitations and reviewed by peers.

Motivation and Reasons to Quit: Predictive Validity among Adolescent Smokers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Lindsey R.; Mermelstein, Robin

2004-01-01

Objectives : To examine reasons to quit among adolescents in a smoking cessation program, and whether reasons were associated with subsequent cessation. Methods : Participants were 351 adolescents. At baseline, adolescents reported motivation, reasons to quit, and stage of change for cessation. Quit status was assessed at end of treatment. Results…

Successful Vocational Rehabilitation of Clients with Retinitis Pigmentosa.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taheri-Araghi, M.; Hendren, G.

1994-01-01

Statistical analysis of 10 personal (client) variables and four program variables related to 76 people who became blind from retinitis pigmentosa revealed that 6 variables predicted clients' rehabilitation outcomes: age, gender, race, work status, amount of case-service money spent on the client's behalf, and number of changes in career objectives…

Decision support: Vulnerability, conservation, and restoration (Chapter 8)

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Jeremiah R. Pinto; R. Kasten Dumroese; Nancy L. Shaw

2012-01-01

Current predictive tools, management options, restoration paradigms, and conservation programs are insufficient to meet the challenges of climate change in western North America. Scientific and management capabilities and resources will be sapped trying to identify risks to genetic resources and ecosystems and determine new approaches for mitigating and managing...

75 FR 38602 - Qualification of Drivers; Exemption Applications; Vision

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-02

... posts all comments received without change to http://www.regulations.gov , including any personal.... These factors provide an adequate basis for predicting each driver's ability to continue to drive safely... Policy and Program Development. [FR Doc. 2010-16180 Filed 7-1-10; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE 4910-EX-P ...

Early Brain changes May Help Predict Autism Among High-Risk Infants

MedlinePlus

... early as age 2 years, based on certain behaviors and communication difficulties. The study, funded by the NIH Autism Centers of Excellence Program , is published in the February 16, 2017, issue of Nature . Approximately 1 out of every 68 children in the United States has autism, according to ...

Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

2017-06-01

Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

Aircraft aerodynamic prediction method for V/STOL transition including flow separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilmer, B. R.; Miner, G. A.; Bristow, D. R.

1983-01-01

A numerical procedure was developed for the aerodynamic force and moment analysis of V/STOL aircraft operating in the transition regime between hover and conventional forward flight. The trajectories, cross sectional area variations, and mass entrainment rates of the jets are calculated by the Adler-Baron Jet-in-Crossflow Program. The inviscid effects of the interaction between the jets and airframe on the aerodynamic properties are determined by use of the MCAIR 3-D Subsonic properties are determined by use of the MCAIR 3-D Subsonic Potential Flow Program, a surface panel method. In addition, the MCAIR 3-D Geometry influence Coefficient Program is used to calculate a matrix of partial derivatives that represent the rate of change of the inviscid aerodynamic properties with respect to arbitrary changes in the effective wing shape.

The effects of psychoeducation and self-monitoring in a cognitive-behavioral program for body-image improvement.

PubMed

Cash, Thomas F; Hrabosky, Joshua I

2003-01-01

Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is an efficacious treatment for body-image difficulties and disorders. The current study evaluated two combined components of Cash's (1997) self-administered body-image CBT program--psychoeducation and self-monitoring. Twenty-five body-dissatisfied college students enrolled in the three-week program and were required to hand in homework weekly in brief meetings with the experimenter. From pre- to posttest, participants became significantly more satisfied with their appearance and reported less situational body-image dysphoria, less weight-related concern, and less investment in their appearance as a source of self-evaluation. Changes generalized to improved self-esteem, eating attitudes, and social anxiety. Better self-monitoring compliance predicted greater reductions in body-image dysphoria. The study's methodological limitations and clinical implications are considered, and mechanisms of change are discussed.

Change in avian abundance predicted from regional forest inventory data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twedt, Daniel J.; Tirpak, John M.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd; Thompson, Frank R.; Uihlein, William B.; Fitzgerald, Jane A.

2010-01-01

An inability to predict population response to future habitat projections is a shortcoming in bird conservation planning. We sought to predict avian response to projections of future forest conditions that were developed from nationwide forest surveys within the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. To accomplish this, we evaluated the historical relationship between silvicolous bird populations and FIA-derived forest conditions within 25 ecoregions that comprise the southeastern United States. We aggregated forest area by forest ownership, forest type, and tree size-class categories in county-based ecoregions for 5 time periods spanning 1963-2008. We assessed the relationship of forest data with contemporaneous indices of abundance for 24 silvicolous bird species that were obtained from Breeding Bird Surveys. Relationships between bird abundance and forest inventory data for 18 species were deemed sufficient as predictive models. We used these empirically derived relationships between regional forest conditions and bird populations to predict relative changes in abundance of these species within ecoregions that are anticipated to coincide with projected changes in forest variables through 2040. Predicted abundances of these 18 species are expected to remain relatively stable in over a quarter (27%) of the ecoregions. However, change in forest area and redistribution of forest types will likely result in changed abundance of some species within many ecosystems. For example, abundances of 11 species, including pine warbler (Dendroica pinus), brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla), and chuckwills- widow (Caprimulgus carolinensis), are projected to increase within more ecoregions than ecoregions where they will decrease. For 6 other species, such as blue-winged warbler (Vermivora pinus), Carolina wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), and indigo bunting (Passerina cyanea), we projected abundances will decrease within more ecoregions than ecoregions where they will increase.

Prediction of Change in Prescription Ingredient Costs and Co-payment Rates under a Reference Pricing System in South Korea.

PubMed

Heo, Ji Haeng; Rascati, Karen L; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-05-01

The reference pricing system (RPS) establishes reference prices within interchangeable reference groupings. For drugs priced higher than the reference point, patients pay the difference between the reference price and the total price. To predict potential changes in prescription ingredient costs and co-payment rates after implementation of an RPS in South Korea. Korean National Health Insurance claims data were used as a baseline to develop possible RPS models. Five components of a potential RPS policy were varied: reference groupings, reference pricing methods, co-pay reduction programs, manufacturer price reductions, and increased drug substitutions. The potential changes for prescription ingredient costs and co-payment rates were predicted for the various scenarios. It was predicted that transferring the difference (total price minus reference price) from the insurer to patients would reduce ingredient costs from 1.4% to 22.8% for the third-party payer (government), but patient co-payment rates would increase from a baseline of 20.4% to 22.0% using chemical groupings and to 25.0% using therapeutic groupings. Savings rates in prescription ingredient costs (government and patient combined) were predicted to range from 1.6% to 13.7% depending on various scenarios. Although the co-payment rate would increase, a 15% price reduction by manufacturers coupled with a substitution rate of 30% would result in a decrease in the co-payment amount (change in absolute dollars vs. change in rates). Our models predicted that the implementation of RPS in South Korea would lead to savings in ingredient costs for the third-party payer and co-payments for patients with potential scenarios. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A population survey on legislative measures to restrict smoking in Ontario: 4. Variables related to knowledge of active and passive smoking health effects and to predicted behavior of smokers and nonsmokers.

PubMed

Pederson, L L; Bull, S B; Ashley, M J; Lefcoe, N M

1989-01-01

Results from the further analysis of a population survey on legislative measures to restrict smoking revealed that identification of subgroups of smokers is more reliable than identification of subgroups of nonsmokers when a variety of attitudes were the measures of interest. A similar pattern emerged when analyses were carried out on knowledge of active and passive smoking health effects and on predicted personal and general compliance. Because distinct sets of variables were found to be related to distinct outcomes, program planning for changes in knowledge and behavior might, of necessity, have to be different. Media messages might be useful for changes in knowledge, while actual experience might be more important for attitude and behavior change.

NASA Tools for Climate Impacts on Water Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toll, David; Doorn, Brad

2010-01-01

Climate and environmental change are expected to fundamentally alter the nation's hydrological cycle and water availability. Satellites provide global or near-global coverage using instruments, allowing for consistent, well-calibrated, and equivalent-quality data of the Earth system. A major goal for NASA climate and environmental change research is to create multi-instrument data sets to span the multi-decadal time scales of climate change and to combine these data with those from modeling and surface-based observing systems to improve process understanding and predictions. NASA and Earth science data and analyses will ultimately enable more accurate climate prediction, and characterization of uncertainties. NASA's Applied Sciences Program works with other groups, including other federal agencies, to transition demonstrated observational capabilities to operational capabilities. A summary of some of NASA tools for improved water resources management will be presented.

Figures of Merit for Aeronautics Programs and Addition to NASA LARC Fire Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harper, Belinda M.

1995-01-01

This report accounts details of two research projects for the Langley Aerospace Research Summer Scholars (LARSS) program. The first project, with the Office of Mission Assurance, involved subjectively predicting the probable success of two aeronautics programs by means of a tool called a Figure of Merit. The figure of merit bases program success on the quality and reliability of the following factors: parts, complexity of research, quality programs, hazards elimination, and single point failures elimination. The second project, for the Office of Safety and Facilities Assurance, required planning, layouts, and source seeking for an addition to the fire house. Forecasted changes in facility layout necessitate this addition which will serve as housing for the fire fighters.

Does Gender Moderate the Relations Between Externalizing Behavior and Key Emergent Literacy Abilities? Evidence From a Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Allan, Nicholas P; Joye, Shauna W; Lonigan, Christopher J

2017-05-01

There is a significant negative relation between externalizing behavior and emergent literacy skills among preschool children. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of gender on the predictive relation of externalizing behavior and emergent literacy in a group of 178 preschool children (mean age = 48.50 months, SD = 3.66; 48% boys). Externalizing behaviors predicted emergent literacy over time. Distinct patterns of predictive associations dependent on gender were found. Girls with higher levels of externalizing behaviors experienced less change in their vocabulary skills compared with the vocabulary change shown by girls with lower levels of these problem behaviors. The results suggest that early identification programs that include externalizing behavior problems and their relation with emergent literacy development should account for potential gender differences. A theoretical framework in which girls with behavior problems receive less opportunity for vocabulary acquisition is presented.

Additional application of the NASCAP code. Volume 1: NASCAP extension

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katz, I.; Cassidy, J. J.; Mandell, M. J.; Parks, D. E.; Schnuelle, G. W.; Stannard, P. R.; Steen, P. G.

1981-01-01

The NASCAP computer program comprehensively analyzes problems of spacecraft charging. Using a fully three dimensional approach, it can accurately predict spacecraft potentials under a variety of conditions. Several changes were made to NASCAP, and a new code, NASCAP/LEO, was developed. In addition, detailed studies of several spacecraft-environmental interactions and of the SCATHA spacecraft were performed. The NASCAP/LEO program handles situations of relatively short Debye length encountered by large space structures or by any satellite in low earth orbit (LEO).

Internet-based motivation program for women with eating disorders: eating disorder pathology and depressive mood predict dropout.

PubMed

von Brachel, Ruth; Hötzel, Katrin; Hirschfeld, Gerrit; Rieger, Elizabeth; Schmidt, Ulrike; Kosfelder, Joachim; Hechler, Tanja; Schulte, Dietmar; Vocks, Silja

2014-03-31

One of the main problems of Internet-delivered interventions for a range of disorders is the high dropout rate, yet little is known about the factors associated with this. We recently developed and tested a Web-based 6-session program to enhance motivation to change for women with anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, or related subthreshold eating pathology. The aim of the present study was to identify predictors of dropout from this Web program. A total of 179 women took part in the study. We used survival analyses (Cox regression) to investigate the predictive effect of eating disorder pathology (assessed by the Eating Disorders Examination-Questionnaire; EDE-Q), depressive mood (Hopkins Symptom Checklist), motivation to change (University of Rhode Island Change Assessment Scale; URICA), and participants' age at dropout. To identify predictors, we used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. The dropout rate was 50.8% (91/179) and was equally distributed across the 6 treatment sessions. The LASSO analysis revealed that higher scores on the Shape Concerns subscale of the EDE-Q, a higher frequency of binge eating episodes and vomiting, as well as higher depression scores significantly increased the probability of dropout. However, we did not find any effect of the URICA or age on dropout. Women with more severe eating disorder pathology and depressive mood had a higher likelihood of dropping out from a Web-based motivational enhancement program. Interventions such as ours need to address the specific needs of women with more severe eating disorder pathology and depressive mood and offer them additional support to prevent them from prematurely discontinuing treatment.

Internet-Based Motivation Program for Women With Eating Disorders: Eating Disorder Pathology and Depressive Mood Predict Dropout

PubMed Central

Hirschfeld, Gerrit; Rieger, Elizabeth; Schmidt, Ulrike; Kosfelder, Joachim; Hechler, Tanja; Schulte, Dietmar; Vocks, Silja

2014-01-01

Background One of the main problems of Internet-delivered interventions for a range of disorders is the high dropout rate, yet little is known about the factors associated with this. We recently developed and tested a Web-based 6-session program to enhance motivation to change for women with anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, or related subthreshold eating pathology. Objective The aim of the present study was to identify predictors of dropout from this Web program. Methods A total of 179 women took part in the study. We used survival analyses (Cox regression) to investigate the predictive effect of eating disorder pathology (assessed by the Eating Disorders Examination-Questionnaire; EDE-Q), depressive mood (Hopkins Symptom Checklist), motivation to change (University of Rhode Island Change Assessment Scale; URICA), and participants’ age at dropout. To identify predictors, we used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. Results The dropout rate was 50.8% (91/179) and was equally distributed across the 6 treatment sessions. The LASSO analysis revealed that higher scores on the Shape Concerns subscale of the EDE-Q, a higher frequency of binge eating episodes and vomiting, as well as higher depression scores significantly increased the probability of dropout. However, we did not find any effect of the URICA or age on dropout. Conclusions Women with more severe eating disorder pathology and depressive mood had a higher likelihood of dropping out from a Web-based motivational enhancement program. Interventions such as ours need to address the specific needs of women with more severe eating disorder pathology and depressive mood and offer them additional support to prevent them from prematurely discontinuing treatment. PMID:24686856

Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

PubMed

Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

2015-12-01

Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

New correction procedures for the fast field program which extend its range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, M.; Sack, R. A.

1990-01-01

A fast field program (FFP) algorithm was developed based on the method of Lee et al., for the prediction of sound pressure level from low frequency, high intensity sources. In order to permit accurate predictions at distances greater than 2 km, new correction procedures have had to be included in the algorithm. Certain functions, whose Hankel transforms can be determined analytically, are subtracted from the depth dependent Green's function. The distance response is then obtained as the sum of these transforms and the Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) of the residual k dependent function. One procedure, which permits the elimination of most complex exponentials, has allowed significant changes in the structure of the FFP algorithm, which has resulted in a substantial reduction in computation time.

Managing Reliability in the 21st Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dellin, T.A.

1998-11-23

The rapid pace of change at Ike end of the 20th Century should continue unabated well into the 21st Century. The driver will be the marketplace imperative of "faster, better, cheaper." This imperative has already stimulated a revolution-in-engineering in design and manufacturing. In contrast, to date, reliability engineering has not undergone a similar level of change. It is critical that we implement a corresponding revolution-in-reliability-engineering as we enter the new millennium. If we are still using 20th Century reliability approaches in the 21st Century, then reliability issues will be the limiting factor in faster, better, and cheaper. At the heartmore » of this reliability revolution will be a science-based approach to reliability engineering. Science-based reliability will enable building-in reliability, application-specific products, virtual qualification, and predictive maintenance. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate a dialogue on the future of reliability engineering. We will try to gaze into the crystal ball and predict some key issues that will drive reliability programs in the new millennium. In the 21st Century, we will demand more of our reliability programs. We will need the ability to make accurate reliability predictions that will enable optimizing cost, performance and time-to-market to meet the needs of every market segment. We will require that all of these new capabilities be in place prior to the stint of a product development cycle. The management of reliability programs will be driven by quantifiable metrics of value added to the organization business objectives.« less

A Simple Climate Model Program for High School Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommenget, D.

2012-04-01

The future climate change projections of the IPCC AR4 are based on GCM simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern, with an arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land sea contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the IPCC predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change are very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex GCM simulations and they are not accessible for ordinary people. In this study presented here we will introduce a very simple gridded globally resolved energy balance model based on strongly simplified physical processes, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the 1-dimensional energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex GCMs. It runs on standard PC computers computing globally resolved climate simulation with 2yrs per second or 100,000yrs per day. The program can compute typical global warming scenarios in a few minutes on a standard PC. The computer code is only 730 line long with very simple formulations that high school students should be able to understand. The simple model's climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern is within the uncertainties of the IPCC AR4 models simulations. It is capable of simulating the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land sea contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC AR4 models in amplitude and structure. The program can be used to do sensitivity studies in which students can change something (e.g. reduce the solar radiation, take away the clouds or make snow black) and see how it effects the climate or the climate response to changes in greenhouse gases. This program is available for every one and could be the basis for high school education. Partners for a high school project are wanted!

Training on the DSM-5 Cultural Formulation Interview Improves Cultural Competence in General Psychiatry Residents: A Multi-site Study.

PubMed

Mills, Stacia; Wolitzky-Taylor, Kate; Xiao, Anna Q; Bourque, Marie Claire; Rojas, Sandra M Peynado; Bhattacharya, Debanjana; Simpson, Annabelle K; Maye, Aleea; Lo, Pachida; Clark, Aaron; Lim, Russell; Lu, Francis G

2016-10-01

The authors assessed whether a 1-h didactic session on the DSM-5 Cultural Formulation Interview (CFI) improves cultural competence of general psychiatry residents. Psychiatry residents at six residency programs completed demographics and pre-intervention questionnaires, were exposed to a 1-h session on the CFI, and completed a post-intervention questionnaire. Repeated measures ANCOVA compared pre- to post-intervention change. Linear regression assessed whether previous cultural experience predicted post-intervention scores. Mean scores on the questionnaire significantly changed from pre- to post-intervention (p < 0.001). Previous cultural experience did not predict post-intervention scores. Psychiatry residents' cultural competence scores improved with a 1-h session on the CFI but with notable limitations.

How can a modular Master Program in Hydrology provide a framework for future education challenges?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiler, Markus; Lange, Jens

2010-05-01

A new Master program in Hydrology started at the University of Freiburg in 2008 as a continuation of the Diploma program in Hydrology due to the proposed changes according to the Bologna ac-cord. This imposed formation provided a perfect opportunity to develop a new program that is able to meet the challenges of future hydrology students to work in a nonstationary world due to climate and land use change. A modular program with individual three week hydrological courses was es-tablished, which builds on a general bachelor knowledge in natural sciences. Besides broad theory, students are taught in all relevant methods of hydrological field data collection and laboratory analy-sis. Recurrently, practical data analysis is carried out using freeware software tools. Examples in-clude time series analysis, (geo-)statistics and independently programmed water balance models including uncertainty assessments. Students work on data sets of different climatic zones and are made aware of hydrological problem areas around the globe. Hence, graduates know how to collect, analyse and evaluate hydrological information and may prepare their own, independent tools to pre-dict future changes. In addition, the new modular program includes instructors from the industry and public authorities to provide the students a broad perspective of their future profession. Finally, the new program allows directly to teach university students and practicing hydrologists together to provide evolving methods in hydrology to the practitioners and to allow contacts to professional for the university students.

Individual Characteristics, Family Factors, and Classroom Experiences as Predictors of Low-Income Kindergarteners' Social Skills.

PubMed

Griffith, Shayl; Arnold, David; Voegler-Lee, Mary-Ellen; Kupersmidt, Janis

2016-01-01

There has been increasing awareness of the need for research and theory to take into account the intersection of individual characteristics and environmental contexts when examining predictors of child outcomes. The present longitudinal, multi-informant study examined the cumulative and interacting contributions of child characteristics (language skills, inattention/hyperactivity, and aggression) and preschool and family contextual factors in predicting kindergarten social skills in 389 low-income preschool children. Child characteristics and classroom factors, but not family factors, predicted teacher-rated kindergarten social skills, while child characteristics alone predicted change in teacher-rated social skills from preschool to kindergarten. Child characteristics and family factors, but not classroom factors, predicted parent-rated kindergarten social skills. Family factors alone predicted change in parent-rated social skills from preschool to kindergarten. Individual child characteristics did not interact with family or classroom factors in predicting parent- or teacher-rated social skills, and support was therefore found for an incremental, rather than an interactive, predictive model of social skills. The findings underscore the importance of assessing outcomes in more than one context, and of considering the impact of both individual and environmental contextual factors on children's developing social skills when designing targeted intervention programs to prepare children for kindergarten.

Individual Characteristics, Family Factors, and Classroom Experiences as Predictors of Low-Income Kindergarteners’ Social Skills

PubMed Central

Griffith, Shayl; Arnold, David; Voegler-Lee, Mary-Ellen; Kupersmidt, Janis

2017-01-01

There has been increasing awareness of the need for research and theory to take into account the intersection of individual characteristics and environmental contexts when examining predictors of child outcomes. The present longitudinal, multi-informant study examined the cumulative and interacting contributions of child characteristics (language skills, inattention/hyperactivity, and aggression) and preschool and family contextual factors in predicting kindergarten social skills in 389 low-income preschool children. Child characteristics and classroom factors, but not family factors, predicted teacher-rated kindergarten social skills, while child characteristics alone predicted change in teacher-rated social skills from preschool to kindergarten. Child characteristics and family factors, but not classroom factors, predicted parent-rated kindergarten social skills. Family factors alone predicted change in parent-rated social skills from preschool to kindergarten. Individual child characteristics did not interact with family or classroom factors in predicting parent- or teacher-rated social skills, and support was therefore found for an incremental, rather than an interactive, predictive model of social skills. The findings underscore the importance of assessing outcomes in more than one context, and of considering the impact of both individual and environmental contextual factors on children’s developing social skills when designing targeted intervention programs to prepare children for kindergarten. PMID:28804528

Predicting CD4 count changes among patients on antiretroviral treatment: Application of data mining techniques.

PubMed

Kebede, Mihiretu; Zegeye, Desalegn Tigabu; Zeleke, Berihun Megabiaw

2017-12-01

To monitor the progress of therapy and disease progression, periodic CD4 counts are required throughout the course of HIV/AIDS care and support. The demand for CD4 count measurement is increasing as ART programs expand over the last decade. This study aimed to predict CD4 count changes and to identify the predictors of CD4 count changes among patients on ART. A cross-sectional study was conducted at the University of Gondar Hospital from 3,104 adult patients on ART with CD4 counts measured at least twice (baseline and most recent). Data were retrieved from the HIV care clinic electronic database and patients` charts. Descriptive data were analyzed by SPSS version 20. Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) methodology was followed to undertake the study. WEKA version 3.8 was used to conduct a predictive data mining. Before building the predictive data mining models, information gain values and correlation-based Feature Selection methods were used for attribute selection. Variables were ranked according to their relevance based on their information gain values. J48, Neural Network, and Random Forest algorithms were experimented to assess model accuracies. The median duration of ART was 191.5 weeks. The mean CD4 count change was 243 (SD 191.14) cells per microliter. Overall, 2427 (78.2%) patients had their CD4 counts increased by at least 100 cells per microliter, while 4% had a decline from the baseline CD4 value. Baseline variables including age, educational status, CD8 count, ART regimen, and hemoglobin levels predicted CD4 count changes with predictive accuracies of J48, Neural Network, and Random Forest being 87.1%, 83.5%, and 99.8%, respectively. Random Forest algorithm had a superior performance accuracy level than both J48 and Artificial Neural Network. The precision, sensitivity and recall values of Random Forest were also more than 99%. Nearly accurate prediction results were obtained using Random Forest algorithm. This algorithm could be used in a low-resource setting to build a web-based prediction model for CD4 count changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neuronal Susceptibility to GRIM in Drosophila melanogaster Measures the Rate of Genetic Changes that Scale to Lifespan

PubMed Central

Bedoukian, Matthew A.; Rodriguez, Sarah M.; Cohen, Matthew B.; Duncan Smith, Stuart V.; Park, Jennifer

2009-01-01

Gene expression in Drosophila melanogaster changes significantly throughout life and some of these changes can be delayed by lowering ambient temperature and also by dietary restriction. These two interventions are known to slow the rate of aging as well as the accumulation of damage. It is unknown, however, whether gene expression changes that occur during development and early adult life make an animal more vulnerable to death. Here we develop a method capable of measuring the rate of programmed genetic changes during young adult life in Drosophila melanogaster and show that these changes can be delayed or accelerated in a manner that is predictive of longevity. We show that temperature shifts and dietary restriction, which slow the rate of aging in Drosophila melanogaster, extend the window of neuronal susceptibility to GRIM over-expression in a way that scales to lifespan. We propose that this susceptibility can be used to test compounds and genetic manipulations that alter the onset of senescence by changing the programmed timing of gene expression that correlates and may be causal to aging. PMID:19428445

NOAA's Education Program: Review and Critique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farrington, John W., Ed.; Feder, Michael A., Ed.

2010-01-01

There is a national need to educate the public about the ocean, coastal resources, atmosphere and climate. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the agency responsible for understanding and predicting changes in the Earth's environment and conserving and managing coastal and marine resources to meet the nation's…

Physical Therapy Principles in Rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Sparto, Patrick J.

2016-01-01

The use of vestibular rehabilitation for persons with balance and vestibular disorders is used to improve function and decrease dizziness symptoms. Principles of a vestibular rehabilitation program are described including common exercises and outcome measures used to report change. A review of negative and positive predictive factors related to recovery is also provided. PMID:22027077

Predicting Success in Nursing Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herrera, Cheryl; Blair, Jennifer

2015-01-01

As the U.S. population ages and policy changes emerge, such as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, the U.S. will experience a significant shortage of Registered Nurses (RNs). Many colleges and universities are attempting to increase the size of nursing cohorts to respond to this imminent shortage. Notwithstanding a 2.6%…

Using a Planetarium Software Program to Promote Conceptual Change with Young Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hobson, Sally M.; Trundle, Kathy Cabe; Sackes, Mesut

2010-01-01

This study explored young children's understandings of targeted lunar concepts, including when the moon can be observed, observable lunar phase shapes, predictable lunar patterns, and the cause of lunar phases. Twenty-one children (ages 7-9 years) from a multi-aged, self-contained classroom participated in this study. The instructional…

75 FR 27621 - Qualification of Drivers; Exemption Applications; Vision

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-17

... for this Notice. Note that DOT posts all comments received without change to http://www.regulations.... These factors provide an adequate basis for predicting each driver's ability to continue to drive safely... Policy and Program Development. [FR Doc. 2010-11711 Filed 5-14-10; 8:45 am] BILLING CODE 4910-EX-P ...

Predictive Accuracy of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version Risk and Change Scores in Treated Canadian Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Sexual Offenders.

PubMed

Olver, Mark E; Sowden, Justina N; Kingston, Drew A; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Wong, Stephen C P

2018-04-01

The present study examined the predictive properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal sexual offenders in a combined sample of 1,063 Canadian federally incarcerated men. All men participated in sexual offender treatment programming through the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) at sites across its five regions. The Static-99R was also examined for comparison purposes. In total, 393 of the men were identified as Aboriginal (i.e., First Nations, Métis, Circumpolar) while 670 were non-Aboriginal and primarily White. Aboriginal men scored significantly higher on the Static-99R and VRS-SO and had higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism; however, there were no significant differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal groups on treatment change with both groups demonstrating close to a half-standard deviation of change pre and post treatment. VRS-SO risk and change scores significantly predicted sexual and violent recidivism over fixed 5- and 10-year follow-ups for both racial/ancestral groups. Cox regression survival analyses also demonstrated positive treatment changes to be significantly associated with reductions in sexual and violent recidivism among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men after controlling baseline risk. A series of follow-up Cox regression analyses demonstrated that risk and change score information accounted for much of the observed differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men in rates of sexual recidivism; however, marked group differences persisted in rates of general violent recidivism even after controlling for these covariates. The results support the predictive properties of VRS-SO risk and change scores with treated Canadian Aboriginal sexual offenders.

Does a brief suicide prevention gatekeeper training program enhance observed skills?

PubMed

Cross, Wendi; Matthieu, Monica M; Lezine, Dequincy; Knox, Kerry L

2010-01-01

Suicide is a significant public health problem worldwide that requires evidence-based prevention efforts. One approach to prevention is gatekeeper training. Gatekeeper training programs for community members have demonstrated positive changes in knowledge and attitudes about suicide. Changes in gatekeeper skills have not been well established. To assess and to predict the impact of a brief, gatekeeper training on community members' observed skills. Participants in a community gatekeeper training were employees at US universities. 50 participants were randomly selected for skills assessment and videotaped interacting with a standardized actor prior to and following training. Tapes were reliably rated for general and suicide-specific skills. Gatekeeper skills increased from pre- to posttest: 10% of participants met criteria for acceptable gatekeeper skills before training, while 54% met criteria after training. Pretraining variables did not predict increased skills. Results do not provide conclusions about the relationship between observed gatekeeper skills and actual use of those skills in the future. Gatekeeper training enhances suicide-specific skills for the majority of participants. Other strategies, such as behavioral rehearsal, may be necessary to enhance skills in the remaining participants.

Modeling the Earth system in the Mission to Planet Earth era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unninayar, Sushel; Bergman, Kenneth H.

1993-01-01

A broad overview is made of global earth system modeling in the Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) era for the multidisciplinary audience encompassed by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP). Time scales of global system fluctuation and change are described in Section 2. Section 3 provides a rubric for modeling the global earth system, as presently understood. The ability of models to predict the future state of the global earth system and the extent to which their predictions are reliable are covered in Sections 4 and 5. The 'engineering' use of global system models (and predictions) is covered in Section 6. Section 7 covers aspects of an increasing need for improved transform algorithms and better methods to assimilate this information into global models. Future monitoring and data requirements are detailed in Section 8. Section 9 covers the NASA-initiated concept 'Mission to Planet Earth,' which employs space and ground based measurement systems to provide the scientific basis for understanding global change. Section 10 concludes this review with general remarks concerning the state of global system modeling and observing technology and the need for future research.

NEW IMPROVEMENTS TO MFIRE TO ENHANCE FIRE MODELING CAPABILITIES.

PubMed

Zhou, L; Smith, A C; Yuan, L

2016-06-01

NIOSH's mine fire simulation program, MFIRE, is widely accepted as a standard for assessing and predicting the impact of a fire on the mine ventilation system and the spread of fire contaminants in coal and metal/nonmetal mines, which has been used by U.S. and international companies to simulate fires for planning and response purposes. MFIRE is a dynamic, transient-state, mine ventilation network simulation program that performs normal planning calculations. It can also be used to analyze ventilation networks under thermal and mechanical influence such as changes in ventilation parameters, external influences such as changes in temperature, and internal influences such as a fire. The program output can be used to analyze the effects of these influences on the ventilation system. Since its original development by Michigan Technological University for the Bureau of Mines in the 1970s, several updates have been released over the years. In 2012, NIOSH completed a major redesign and restructuring of the program with the release of MFIRE 3.0. MFIRE's outdated FORTRAN programming language was replaced with an object-oriented C++ language and packaged into a dynamic link library (DLL). However, the MFIRE 3.0 release made no attempt to change or improve the fire modeling algorithms inherited from its previous version, MFIRE 2.20. This paper reports on improvements that have been made to the fire modeling capabilities of MFIRE 3.0 since its release. These improvements include the addition of fire source models of the t-squared fire and heat release rate curve data file, the addition of a moving fire source for conveyor belt fire simulations, improvement of the fire location algorithm, and the identification and prediction of smoke rollback phenomena. All the improvements discussed in this paper will be termed as MFIRE 3.1 and released by NIOSH in the near future.

The Role of Leaders’ Working Alliance in Premarital Education

PubMed Central

Owen, Jesse J.; Rhoades, Galena K.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.

2011-01-01

Premarital (and general relationship) education programs, as a prevention method, have been shown to have a positive effect on marital quality and can prevent divorce. However, it is unclear whether these positive effects are consistent across leaders who conduct premarital education programs. Examining the variability in relationship outcomes attributed to the leaders of premarital education programs, and the role of general therapeutic factors such as working alliance in explaining relationship outcomes, may help increase the effectiveness of these programs. Accordingly, this study examined 31 leaders who trained 118 couples (236 attendees) in a randomized clinical trial of PREP, a research-based and empirically supported premarital education program being compared to a treatment as usual track. The results demonstrated that couples’ relationship outcomes from pre to post training varied based on the leader who provided the premarital education training. Both training in PREP and aggregated leader working alliance quality (as rated by attendees) explained variability between leaders in change in attendees’ observed negative and positive communication. Leaders’ aggregated working alliance quality also explained change in relationship satisfaction. Additionally, attendees’ ratings of their leaders’ working alliance predicted change in their relationship satisfaction and confidence, and attendees had higher positive communication when they reported better working alliance with their leader. PMID:21355646

ElecSus: Extension to arbitrary geometry magneto-optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keaveney, James; Adams, Charles S.; Hughes, Ifan G.

2018-03-01

We present a major update to ElecSus, a computer program and underlying model to calculate the electric susceptibility of an alkali-metal atomic vapour. Knowledge of the electric susceptibility of a medium is essential to predict its absorptive and dispersive properties. In this version we implement several changes which significantly extend the range of applications of ElecSus, the most important of which is support for non-axial magnetic fields (i.e. fields which are not aligned with the light propagation axis). Supporting this change requires a much more general approach to light propagation in the system, which we have now implemented. We exemplify many of these new applications by comparing ElecSus to experimental data. In addition, we have developed a graphical user interface front-end which makes the program much more accessible, and have improved on several other minor areas of the program structure.

Overview of the United States Department of Energy's ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stokes, G.M.; Tichler, J.L.

The Department of Energy (DOE) is initiating a major atmospheric research effort, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM). The program is a key component of DOE's research strategy to address global climate change and is a direct continuation of DOE's decade-long effort to improve the ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to provide reliable simulations of regional, and long-term climate change in response to increasing greenhouse gases. The effort is multi-disciplinary and multi-agency, involving universities, private research organizations and more than a dozen government laboratories. The objective of the ARM Research is to provide an experimental testbed for the studymore » of important atmospheric effects, particularly cloud and radiative processes, and to test parameterizations of these processes for use in atmospheric models. This effort will support the continued and rapid improvement of GCM predictive capability. 2 refs.« less

Observed Changes in As-Fabricated U-10Mo Monolithic Fuel Microstructures After Irradiation in the Advanced Test Reactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiser, Dennis; Jue, Jan-Fong; Miller, Brandon; Gan, Jian; Robinson, Adam; Madden, James

2017-12-01

A low-enriched uranium U-10Mo monolithic nuclear fuel is being developed by the Material Management and Minimization Program, earlier known as the Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors Program, for utilization in research and test reactors around the world that currently use high-enriched uranium fuels. As part of this program, reactor experiments are being performed in the Advanced Test Reactor. It must be demonstrated that this fuel type exhibits mechanical integrity, geometric stability, and predictable behavior to high powers and high fission densities in order for it to be a viable fuel for qualification. This paper provides an overview of the microstructures observed at different regions of interest in fuel plates before and after irradiation for fuel samples that have been tested. These fuel plates were fabricated using laboratory-scale fabrication methods. Observations regarding how microstructural changes during irradiation may impact fuel performance are discussed.

Research and development program for the development of advanced time-temperature dependent constitutive relationships. Volume 1: Theoretical discussion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cassenti, B. N.

1983-01-01

The results of a 10-month research and development program for the development of advanced time-temperature constitutive relationships are presented. The program included (1) the effect of rate of change of temperature, (2) the development of a term to include time independent effects, and (3) improvements in computational efficiency. It was shown that rate of change of temperature could have a substantial effect on the predicted material response. A modification to include time-independent effects, applicable to many viscoplastic constitutive theories, was shown to reduce to classical plasticity. The computation time can be reduced by a factor of two if self-adaptive integration is used when compared to an integration using ordinary forward differences. During the course of the investigation, it was demonstrated that the most important single factor affecting the theoretical accuracy was the choice of material parameters.

Ecological Forecasting in the Applied Sciences Program and Input to the Decadal Survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skiles, Joseph

2015-01-01

Ecological forecasting uses knowledge of physics, ecology and physiology to predict how ecosystems will change in the future in response to environmental factors. Further, Ecological Forecasting employs observations and models to predict the effects of environmental change on ecosystems. In doing so, it applies information from the physical, biological, and social sciences and promotes a scientific synthesis across the domains of physics, geology, chemistry, biology, and psychology. The goal is reliable forecasts that allow decision makers access to science-based tools in order to project changes in living systems. The next decadal survey will direct the development Earth Observation sensors and satellites for the next ten years. It is important that these new sensors and satellites address the requirements for ecosystem models, imagery, and other data for resource management. This presentation will give examples of these model inputs and some resources needed for NASA to continue effective Ecological Forecasting.

Performance deterioration based on simulated aerodynamic loads test, JT9D jet engine diagnostics program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stromberg, W. J.

1981-01-01

An engine was specially prepared with extensive instrumentation to monitor performance, case temperatures, and clearance changes. A special loading device was used to apply known loads on the engine by the use of cables placed around the flight inlet. These loads simulated the estimated aerodynamic pressure distributions that occur on the inlet in various segments of a typical airplane flight. Test results indicate that the engine lost 1.3 percent in take-off thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC) during the course of the test effort. Permanent clearance changes due to the loads accounted for 1.1 percent; increase in low pressure compressor airfoil roughness and thermal distortion in the high pressure turbine accounted for 0.2 percent. Pretest predicted performance loss due to clearance changes was 0.9 percent in TSFC. Therefore, the agreement between measurement and prediction is considered to be excellent.

Epigenetics and obesity.

PubMed

Campión, Javier; Milagro, Fermin; Martínez, J Alfredo

2010-01-01

The etiology of obesity is multifactorial, involving complex interactions among the genetic makeup, neuroendocrine status, fetal programming, and different unhealthy environmental factors, such as sedentarism or inadequate dietary habits. Among the different mechanisms causing obesity, epigenetics, defined as the study of heritable changes in gene expression that occur without a change in the DNA sequence, has emerged as a very important determinant. Experimental evidence concerning dietary factors influencing obesity development through epigenetic mechanisms has been described. Thus, identification of those individuals who present with changes in DNA methylation profiles, certain histone modifications, or other epigenetically related processes could help to predict their susceptibility to gain or lose weight. Indeed, research concerning epigenetic mechanisms affecting weight homeostasis may play a role in the prevention of excessive fat deposition, the prediction of the most appropriate weight reduction plan, and the implementation of newer therapeutic approaches. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The relation between maternal ADHD symptoms & improvement in child behavior following brief behavioral parent training is mediated by change in negative parenting.

PubMed

Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea; O'Brien, Kelly A; Johnston, Charlotte; Jones, Heather A; Clarke, Tana L; Raggi, Veronica L; Rooney, Mary E; Diaz, Yamalis; Pian, Jessica; Seymour, Karen E

2011-10-01

This study examined the extent to which maternal attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms predict improvement in child behavior following brief behavioral parent training. Change in parenting was examined as a potential mediator of the negative relationship between maternal ADHD symptoms and improvement in child behavior. Seventy mothers of 6-10 year old children with ADHD underwent a comprehensive assessment of adult ADHD prior to participating in an abbreviated parent training program. Before and after treatment, parenting was assessed via maternal reports and observations and child disruptive behavior was measured via maternal report. Controlling for pre-treatment levels, maternal ADHD symptomatology predicted post-treatment child disruptive behavior problems. The relation between maternal ADHD symptomatology and improvement in child behavior was mediated by change in observed maternal negative parenting. This study replicated findings linking maternal ADHD symptoms with attenuated child improvement following parent training, and is the first to demonstrate that negative parenting at least partially explains this relationship. Innovative approaches combining evidence-based treatment for adult ADHD with parent training may therefore be necessary for families in which both the mother and child have ADHD. Larger-scale studies using a full evidence-based parent training program are needed to replicate these findings.

The Relation Between Maternal ADHD Symptoms & Improvement in Child Behavior Following Brief Behavioral Parent Training is Mediated by Change in Negative Parenting

PubMed Central

Chronis-Tuscano, Andrea; O’Brien, Kelly A.; Johnston, Charlotte; Jones, Heather A.; Clarke, Tana L.; Raggi, Veronica L.; Rooney, Mary E.; Diaz, Yamalis; Pian, Jessica; Seymour, Karen E.

2012-01-01

This study examined the extent to which maternal attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms predict improvement in child behavior following brief behavioral parent training. Change in parenting was examined as a potential mediator of the negative relationship between maternal ADHD symptoms and improvement in child behavior. Seventy mothers of 6–10 year old children with ADHD underwent a comprehensive assessment of adult ADHD prior to participating in an abbreviated parent training program. Before and after treatment, parenting was assessed via maternal reports and observations and child disruptive behavior was measured via maternal report. Controlling for pre-treatment levels, maternal ADHD symptomatology predicted post-treatment child disruptive behavior problems. The relation between maternal ADHD symptomatology and improvement in child behavior was mediated by change in observed maternal negative parenting. This study replicated findings linking maternal ADHD symptoms with attenuated child improvement following parent training, and is the first to demonstrate that negative parenting at least partially explains this relationship. Innovative approaches combining evidence-based treatment for adult ADHD with parent training may therefore be necessary for families in which both the mother and child have ADHD. Larger-scale studies using a full evidence-based parent training program are needed to replicate these findings. PMID:21537894

The role of leaders' working alliance in premarital education.

PubMed

Owen, Jesse J; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

2011-02-01

Premarital (and general relationship) education programs, as a prevention method, have been shown to have a positive effect on marital quality and can prevent divorce. However, it is unclear whether these positive effects are consistent across leaders who conduct premarital education programs. Examining the variability in relationship outcomes attributed to the leaders of premarital education programs, and the role of general therapeutic factors such as working alliance in explaining relationship outcomes, may help increase the effectiveness of these programs. Accordingly, this study examined 31 leaders who trained 118 couples (236 attendees) in a randomized clinical trial of the Prevention and Relationship Enhancement Program (PREP), a research-based and empirically supported premarital education program being compared with a treatment as usual track. The results demonstrated that couples' relationship outcomes from pre- to post-training varied on the basis of the leader who provided the premarital education training. Both training in PREP and aggregated leader working alliance quality (as rated by attendees) explained variability between leaders in change in attendees' observed negative and positive communication. Leaders' aggregated working alliance quality also explained change in relationship satisfaction. In addition, attendees' ratings of their leaders' working alliance predicted change in their relationship satisfaction and confidence, and attendees had higher positive communication when they reported better working alliance with their leader. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

Developing a comprehensive training curriculum for integrated predictive maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurzbach, Richard N.

2002-03-01

On-line equipment condition monitoring is a critical component of the world-class production and safety histories of many successful nuclear plant operators. From addressing availability and operability concerns of nuclear safety-related equipment to increasing profitability through support system reliability and reduced maintenance costs, Predictive Maintenance programs have increasingly become a vital contribution to the maintenance and operation decisions of nuclear facilities. In recent years, significant advancements have been made in the quality and portability of many of the instruments being used, and software improvements have been made as well. However, the single most influential component of the success of these programs is the impact of a trained and experienced team of personnel putting this technology to work. Changes in the nature of the power generation industry brought on by competition, mergers, and acquisitions, has taken the historically stable personnel environment of power generation and created a very dynamic situation. As a result, many facilities have seen a significant turnover in personnel in key positions, including predictive maintenance personnel. It has become the challenge for many nuclear operators to maintain the consistent contribution of quality data and information from predictive maintenance that has become important in the overall equipment decision process. These challenges can be met through the implementation of quality training to predictive maintenance personnel and regular updating and re-certification of key technology holders. The use of data management tools and services aid in the sharing of information across sites within an operating company, and with experts who can contribute value-added data management and analysis. The overall effectiveness of predictive maintenance programs can be improved through the incorporation of newly developed comprehensive technology training courses. These courses address the use of key technologies such as vibration analysis, infrared thermography, and oil analysis not as singular entities, but as a toolbox resource from which to address overall equipment and plant reliability in a structured program and decision environment.

Analysis, prediction, and case studies of early-age cracking in bridge decks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ElSafty, Adel; Graeff, Matthew K.; El-Gharib, Georges; Abdel-Mohti, Ahmed; Mike Jackson, N.

2016-06-01

Early-age cracking can adversely affect strength, serviceability, and durability of concrete bridge decks. Early age is defined as the period after final setting, during which concrete properties change rapidly. Many factors can cause early-age bridge deck cracking including temperature change, hydration, plastic shrinkage, autogenous shrinkage, and drying shrinkage. The cracking may also increase the effect of freeze and thaw cycles and may lead to corrosion of reinforcement. This research paper presents an analysis of causes and factors affecting early-age cracking. It also provides a tool developed to predict the likelihood and initiation of early-age cracking of concrete bridge decks. Understanding the concrete properties is essential so that the developed tool can accurately model the mechanisms contributing to the cracking of concrete bridge decks. The user interface of the implemented computer Excel program enables the user to input the properties of the concrete being monitored. The research study and the developed spreadsheet were used to comprehensively investigate the issue of concrete deck cracking. The spreadsheet is designed to be a user-friendly calculation tool for concrete mixture proportioning, temperature prediction, thermal analysis, and tensile cracking prediction. The study also provides review and makes recommendations on the deck cracking based mainly on the Florida Department of Transportation specifications and Structures Design Guidelines, and Bridge Design Manuals of other states. The results were also compared with that of other commercially available software programs that predict early-age cracking in concrete slabs, concrete pavement, and reinforced concrete bridge decks. The outcome of this study can identify a set of recommendations to limit the deck cracking problem and maintain a longer service life of bridges.

Aminoglycoside Therapy Manager: An Advanced Computer Program for Decision Support for Drug Dosing and Therapeutic Monitoring

PubMed Central

Lenert, Leslie; Lurie, Jon; Coleman, Robert; Klosterman, Heidrun; Blaschke, Terrence

1990-01-01

In this paper, we will describe an advanced drug dosing program, Aminoglycoside Therapy Manager that reasons using Bayesian pharmacokinetic modeling and symbolic modeling of patient status and drug response. Our design is similar to the design of the Digitalis Therapy Advisor program, but extends previous work by incorporating a Bayesian pharmacokinetic model, a “meta-level” analysis of drug concentrations to identify sampling errors and changes in pharmacokinetics, and including the results of the “meta-level” analysis in reasoning for dosing and therapeutic monitoring recommendations. The program is user friendly and runs on low cost general-purpose hardware. Validation studies show that the program is as accurate in predicting future drug concentrations as an expert using commercial Bayesian forecasting software.

Crossing 138: two approaches to churn under the Affordable Care Act.

PubMed

Ravel, Gabriel; DeSantis, J Angelo

2014-01-01

A predicted side effect of the Medicaid expansion and state-based Exchanges under the Affordable Care Act is churn. Churn is the shifting into and out of eligibility for insurance affordability programs due to income changes. Because the line between Medicaid and Exchange eligibility is fine -138% of the federal poverty level -millions of Americans are expected to gain and lose eligibility. Frequently, this churning undermines continuity of care, raises costs, and frustrates those affected. This article explores two proposed programs to mitigate the effects of churn: the Basic Health Program and the Bridge Program. This article evaluates both programs' ability to mitigate the effects of churn, the likely side effects to states' implementing them, and legal and practical obstacles to their implementation. It concludes that the Bridge Program is the better approach.

A controlled evaluation of an eating disorders primary prevention videotape using the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion.

PubMed

Withers, Giselle F; Twigg, Kylie; Wertheim, Eleanor H; Paxton, Susan J

2002-11-01

The aim was to extend findings related to a previously reported eating disorders prevention program by comparing treatment and control groups, adding a follow-up, and examining whether receiver characteristics, personal relevance and need for cognition (NFC), could predict attitude change in early adolescent girls. Grade 7 girls were either shown a brief prevention videotape on dieting and body image (n = 104) or given no intervention (n = 114). All girls completed pre-, post- and 1-month follow-up questionnaires. The intervention group resulted in significantly more positive changes in attitude and knowledge at post-intervention, but only in knowledge at follow-up. There was no strong evidence that pre-intervention characteristics of recipients predicted responses to the videotape intervention when changes were compared to the control group. This prevention videotape appeared to have positive immediate effects, but additional intervention (e.g., booster sessions) may be required for longer-term change. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Inc.

Measuring the effectiveness of the episodic control program Spare the Air in the San Francisco Bay Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, T.G.; Hinman, T.T.

1997-12-31

Episodic control programs that ask the public to voluntarily reduce activities that pollute on days when ozone excesses are predicted are now operating in many parts of the country. The activities include driving, using consumer products that contain reactive organic compounds and lawn and garden equipment with small gasoline engines like lawn mowers and leaf blowers. The effectiveness of these programs as public education tools, their impact in changing behavior and their potential as control tools needs to be assessed. In the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area the Spare the Air program has been operating for five years. The programmore » has a strong employer component as well as a program directed at the general public. During the 1996 ozone season, the Bay Area AQMD, in cooperation with the business community, used several methods to assess awareness and behavior change on Spare the Air days. This included telephone public opinion surveys, a pilot program that offered free transit for employees at 8 companies with measurement feedback from the companies, a telecommuting web page that measured participation, a special carpool matching program and a broad based Capture the Credit initiative by business. This paper describes these initiatives, their results and the next steps anticipated for the 1997 program.« less

Common and specific process factors in cardiac rehabilitation: independent and interactive effects of the working alliance and self-efficacy.

PubMed

Burns, John W; Evon, Donna

2007-11-01

Therapeutic processes in cardiac rehabilitation programs are virtually unexamined. Models were tested by which changes in the working alliance between patient and staff (agreement on goals/tasks; emotional bond) may affect outcomes in conjunction with changes in patient self-efficacy to change their diets and increase exercise. Cardiac patients (n = 79) participated in a 12-week program, and completed assessments at early, mid, and late treatment. Changes in cardiac depression, physical health, perceived exertion during exercise, rate/pressure product at submaximal exercise tolerance, weight loss, return to work, total fat intake. Early-treatment changes in agreement on goals/tasks were related to changes in psychosocial factors and perceived exertion during exercise independent of effects of changes in self-efficacy. Early-treatment changes in goals/tasks and self-efficacy interacted to predict changes in cardiorespiratory fitness, weight loss, and return to work such that patients high on both goals/tasks and self-efficacy showed the most gains. Sound therapeutic relationships between patients and staff may play an important role in facilitating the achievement of a wide-range of salutary outcomes during cardiac rehabilitation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved).

Disease Management: The Need for a Focus on Broader Self-Management Abilities and Quality of Life

PubMed Central

Nieboer, Anna Petra

2015-01-01

Abstract The study objective was to investigate long-term effects of disease management programs (DMPs) on (1) health behaviors (smoking, physical exercise); (2) self-management abilities (self-efficacy, investment behavior, initiative taking); and (3) physical and mental quality of life among chronically ill patients. The study also examined whether (changes in) health behaviors and self-management abilities predicted quality of life. Questionnaires were sent to all 5076 patients participating in 18 Dutch DMPs in 2010 (T0; 2676 [53%] respondents). Two years later (T1), questionnaires were sent to 4350 patients still participating in DMPs (1722 [40%] respondents). Structured interviews were held with the 18 DMP project leaders. DMP implementation improved patients' health behavior and physical quality of life, but mental quality of life and self-management abilities declined over time. Changes in patients' investment behavior predicted physical quality of life at T1 (P<.001); physical activity, investment behavior (both P<.05), and self-efficacy (P<.01) at T0, and changes in self-efficacy and investment behavior (both P<.001) predicted patients' mental quality of life at T1. The long-term benefits of these DMPs include successful improvement of chronically ill patients' health behaviors and physical quality of life. However, these programs were not able to improve or maintain broader self-management abilities or mental quality of life, highlighting the need to focus on these abilities and overall quality of life. As coproducers of care, patients should be stimulated and enabled to manage their health and quality of life. (Population Health Management 2015;18:246–255) PMID:25607246

Disease Management: The Need for a Focus on Broader Self-Management Abilities and Quality of Life.

PubMed

Cramm, Jane Murray; Nieboer, Anna Petra

2015-08-01

The study objective was to investigate long-term effects of disease management programs (DMPs) on (1) health behaviors (smoking, physical exercise); (2) self-management abilities (self-efficacy, investment behavior, initiative taking); and (3) physical and mental quality of life among chronically ill patients. The study also examined whether (changes in) health behaviors and self-management abilities predicted quality of life. Questionnaires were sent to all 5076 patients participating in 18 Dutch DMPs in 2010 (T0; 2676 [53%] respondents). Two years later (T1), questionnaires were sent to 4350 patients still participating in DMPs (1722 [40%] respondents). Structured interviews were held with the 18 DMP project leaders. DMP implementation improved patients' health behavior and physical quality of life, but mental quality of life and self-management abilities declined over time. Changes in patients' investment behavior predicted physical quality of life at T1 (P<.001); physical activity, investment behavior (both P<.05), and self-efficacy (P<.01) at T0, and changes in self-efficacy and investment behavior (both P<.001) predicted patients' mental quality of life at T1. The long-term benefits of these DMPs include successful improvement of chronically ill patients' health behaviors and physical quality of life. However, these programs were not able to improve or maintain broader self-management abilities or mental quality of life, highlighting the need to focus on these abilities and overall quality of life. As coproducers of care, patients should be stimulated and enabled to manage their health and quality of life.

The effect of ambient conditions on carbon monoxide emissions from an idling gas turbine combustor. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Subramanian, A. K.

1977-01-01

A test program employing a gas turbine combustor is outlined; the results of which quantize the effects of changes in ambient temperature and humidity on carbon monoxide emissions at simulated idle operating conditions. A comparison of the experimental results with analytical results generated by a kinetic model of the combustion process, and reflecting changing ambient conditions, is given. It is demonstrated that for a complete range of possible ambient variations, significant changes do occur in the amount of carbon monoxide emitted by a gas turbine at idle, and that the analytical model is reasonably successful in predicting changes.

Skylab

NASA Image and Video Library

1973-01-01

This chart details Skylab's In-Flight Lower Body Negative Pressure experiment facility, a medical evaluation designed to monitor changes in astronauts' cardiovascular systems during long-duration space missions. This experiment collected in-flight data for predicting the impairment of physical capacity and the degree of orthostatic intolerance to be expected upon return to Earth. Data to be collected were blood pressure, heart rate, body temperature, vectorcardiogram, lower body negative pressure, leg volume changes, and body mass. The Marshall Space Flight Center had program management responsibility for the development of Skylab hardware and experiments.

Skylab

NASA Image and Video Library

1970-01-01

This 1970 photograph shows Skylab's In-Flight Lower Body Negative Pressure experiment facility, a medical evaluation designed to monitor changes in astronauts' cardiovascular systems during long-duration space missions. This experiment collected in-flight data for predicting the impairment of physical capacity and the degree of orthostatic intolerance to be expected upon return to Earth. Data to be collected were blood pressure, heart rate, body temperature, vectorcardiogram, lower body negative pressure, leg volume changes, and body mass. The Marshall Space Flight Center had program management responsibility for the development of Skylab hardware and experiments.

Recently Identified Changes to the Demographics of the Current and Future Geoscience Workforce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, C. E.; Keane, C. M.; Houlton, H. R.

2014-12-01

The American Geosciences Institute's (AGI) Geoscience Workforce Program collects and analyzes data pertaining to the changes in the supply, demand, and training of the geoscience workforce. Much of these trends are displayed in detail in AGI's Status of the Geoscience Workforce reports. In May, AGI released the Status of the Geoscience Workforce 2014, which updates these trends since the 2011 edition of this report. These updates highlight areas of change in the education of future geoscientists from K-12 through graduate school, the transition of geoscience graduates into early-career geoscientists, the dynamics of the current geoscience workforce, and the future predictions of the changes in the availability of geoscience jobs. Some examples of these changes include the increase in the number of states that will allow a high school course of earth sciences as a credit for graduation and the increasing importance of two-year college students as a talent pool for the geosciences, with over 25% of geoscience bachelor's graduates attending a two-year college for at least a semester. The continued increase in field camp hinted that these programs are at or reaching capacity. The overall number of faculty and research staff at four-year institutions increased slightly, but the percentages of academics in tenure-track positions continued to slowly decrease since 2009. However, the percentage of female faculty rose in 2013 for all tenure-track positions. Major geoscience industries, such as petroleum and mining, have seen an influx of early-career geoscientists. Demographic trends in the various industries in the geoscience workforce forecasted a shortage of approximately 135,000 geoscientists in the next decade—a decrease from the previously predicted shortage of 150,000 geoscientists. These changes and other changes identified in the Status of the Geoscience Workforce will be addressed in this talk.

ARM Climate Research Facility Annual Report 2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voyles, J.

2004-12-31

Like a rock that slowly wears away beneath the pressure of a waterfall, planet earth?s climate is almost imperceptibly changing. Glaciers are getting smaller, droughts are lasting longer, and extreme weather events like fires, floods, and tornadoes are occurring with greater frequency. Why? Part of the answer is clouds and the amount of solar radiation they reflect or absorb. These two factors clouds and radiative transfer represent the greatest source of error and uncertainty in the current generation of general circulation models used for climate research and simulation. The U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 established an interagency programmore » within the Executive Office of the President to coordinate U.S. agency-sponsored scientific research designed to monitor, understand, and predict changes in the global environment. To address the need for new research on clouds and radiation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. As part of the DOE?s overall Climate Change Science Program, a primary objective of the ARM Program is improved scientific understanding of the fundamental physics related to interactions between clouds and radiative feedback processes in the atmosphere.« less

Sea change: Charting the course for biogeochemical ocean time-series research in a new millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Church, Matthew J.; Lomas, Michael W.; Muller-Karger, Frank

2013-09-01

Ocean time-series provide vital information needed for assessing ecosystem change. This paper summarizes the historical context, major program objectives, and future research priorities for three contemporary ocean time-series programs: The Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT), the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS), and the CARIACO Ocean Time-Series. These three programs operate in physically and biogeochemically distinct regions of the world's oceans, with HOT and BATS located in the open-ocean waters of the subtropical North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively, and CARIACO situated in the anoxic Cariaco Basin of the tropical Atlantic. All three programs sustain near-monthly shipboard occupations of their field sampling sites, with HOT and BATS beginning in 1988, and CARIACO initiated in 1996. The resulting data provide some of the only multi-disciplinary, decadal-scale determinations of time-varying ecosystem change in the global ocean. Facilitated by a scoping workshop (September 2010) sponsored by the Ocean Carbon Biogeochemistry (OCB) program, leaders of these time-series programs sought community input on existing program strengths and for future research directions. Themes that emerged from these discussions included: 1. Shipboard time-series programs are key to informing our understanding of the connectivity between changes in ocean-climate and biogeochemistry 2. The scientific and logistical support provided by shipboard time-series programs forms the backbone for numerous research and education programs. Future studies should be encouraged that seek mechanistic understanding of ecological interactions underlying the biogeochemical dynamics at these sites. 3. Detecting time-varying trends in ocean properties and processes requires consistent, high-quality measurements. Time-series must carefully document analytical procedures and, where possible, trace the accuracy of analyses to certified standards and internal reference materials. 4. Leveraged implementation, testing, and validation of autonomous and remote observing technologies at time-series sites provide new insights into spatiotemporal variability underlying ecosystem changes. 5. The value of existing time-series data for formulating and validating ecosystem models should be promoted. In summary, the scientific underpinnings of ocean time-series programs remain as strong and important today as when these programs were initiated. The emerging data inform our knowledge of the ocean's biogeochemistry and ecology, and improve our predictive capacity about planetary change.

Contributions of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the ARM Climate Research Facility to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

SA Edgerton; LR Roeder

The Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and thermal (or infrared) radiation emitted by the Earth back to space. Changes in atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gases, clouds, and aerosols can alter this balance and produce significant climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool for quantifying future climate change; however, there remain significant uncertainties in the GCM treatment of clouds, aerosol, and their effects on the Earth’s energy balance. The 2007 assessment (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports a substantial range among GCMs in climate sensitivity to greenhousemore » gas emissions. The largest contributor to this range lies in how different models handle changes in the way clouds absorb or reflect radiative energy in a changing climate (Solomon et al. 2007). In 1989, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science created the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program within the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a specific focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. To address this problem, BER has adopted a unique two-pronged approach: * The ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF), a scientific user facility for obtaining long-term measurements of radiative fluxes, cloud and aerosol properties, and related atmospheric characteristics in diverse climate regimes. * The ARM Science Program, focused on the analysis of ACRF data to address climate science issues associated with clouds, aerosols, and radiation, and to improve GCMs. This report describes accomplishments of the BER ARM Program toward addressing the primary uncertainties related to climate change prediction as identified by the IPCC.« less

Prediction of forces and moments for flight vehicle control effectors: Workplan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maughmer, Mark D.

1989-01-01

Two research activities directed at hypersonic vehicle configurations are currently underway. The first involves the validation of a number of classical local surface inclination methods commonly employed in preliminary design studies of hypersonic flight vehicles. Unlike studies aimed at validating such methods for predicting overall vehicle aerodynamics, this effort emphasizes validating the prediction of forces and moments for flight control studies. Specifically, several vehicle configurations for which experimental or flight-test data are available are being examined. By comparing the theoretical predictions with these data, the strengths and weaknesses of the local surface inclination methods can be ascertained and possible improvements suggested. The second research effort, of significance to control during take-off and landing of most proposed hypersonic vehicle configurations, is aimed at determining the change due to ground effect in control effectiveness of highly swept delta planforms. Central to this research is the development of a vortex-lattice computer program which incorporates an unforced trailing vortex sheet and an image ground plane. With this program, the change in pitching moment of the basic vehicle due to ground proximity, and whether or not there is sufficient control power available to trim, can be determined. In addition to the current work, two different research directions are suggested for future study. The first is aimed at developing an interactive computer program to assist the flight controls engineer in determining the forces and moments generated by different types of control effectors that might be used on hypersonic vehicles. The first phase of this work would deal in the subsonic portion of the flight envelope, while later efforts would explore the supersonic/hypersonic flight regimes. The second proposed research direction would explore methods for determining the aerodynamic trim drag of a generic hypersonic flight vehicle and ways in which it can be minimized through vehicle design and trajectory optimization.

A National Program for Analysis of the Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Arkin, Phil; Kalnay, Eugenia; Laver, James; Trenberth, Kevin

2002-01-01

Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to fundamental advances in our understanding of climate variability and climate change is the lack of robust and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system. Such observations are critical for the identification and diagnosis of climate variations, and provide the constraints necessary for developing and validating climate models. The first generation of reanalysis efforts, by using fixed analysis systems, eliminated the artificial climate signals that occurred in analyses generated at the operational numerical weather prediction centers. These datasets are now widely used by the scientific community in a variety of applications including atmosphere-ocean interactions, seasonal prediction, climate monitoring, the hydrological cycle, and a host of regional and other diagnostic studies. These reanalyses, however, had problems that made them sub-optimal or even unusable for some applications. Perhaps the most serious problem for climate applications was that, while the assimilation system remained fixed, changes in the observing systems did produce spurious changes in the perceived climate. The first generation reanalysis products also exposed problems with physical consistency of the products and the accurate representation of physical processes in the climate system. Examples are bias in the estimates of ocean surface fluxes, and inadequate representation of polar hydrology. In this talk, I will describe some initial plans for a national program on reananlysis. The program is envisioned to be part of an on-going activity to maintain, improve, and reprocess our record of climate observations. I will discuss various issues affecting the quality of reanalyses, with a special focus on those relevant to the ocean.

Computer Modeling to Evaluate the Impact of Technology Changes on Resident Procedural Volume.

PubMed

Grenda, Tyler R; Ballard, Tiffany N S; Obi, Andrea T; Pozehl, William; Seagull, F Jacob; Chen, Ryan; Cohn, Amy M; Daskin, Mark S; Reddy, Rishindra M

2016-12-01

As resident "index" procedures change in volume due to advances in technology or reliance on simulation, it may be difficult to ensure trainees meet case requirements. Training programs are in need of metrics to determine how many residents their institutional volume can support. As a case study of how such metrics can be applied, we evaluated a case distribution simulation model to examine program-level mediastinoscopy and endobronchial ultrasound (EBUS) volumes needed to train thoracic surgery residents. A computer model was created to simulate case distribution based on annual case volume, number of trainees, and rotation length. Single institutional case volume data (2011-2013) were applied, and 10 000 simulation years were run to predict the likelihood (95% confidence interval) of all residents (4 trainees) achieving board requirements for operative volume during a 2-year program. The mean annual mediastinoscopy volume was 43. In a simulation of pre-2012 board requirements (thoracic pathway, 25; cardiac pathway, 10), there was a 6% probability of all 4 residents meeting requirements. Under post-2012 requirements (thoracic, 15; cardiac, 10), however, the likelihood increased to 88%. When EBUS volume (mean 19 cases per year) was concurrently evaluated in the post-2012 era (thoracic, 10; cardiac, 0), the likelihood of all 4 residents meeting case requirements was only 23%. This model provides a metric to predict the probability of residents meeting case requirements in an era of changing volume by accounting for unpredictable and inequitable case distribution. It could be applied across operations, procedures, or disease diagnoses and may be particularly useful in developing resident curricula and schedules.

The impact of a telehealth web-based solution on neurosurgery triage and consultation.

PubMed

Moya, Monica; Valdez, Jessica; Yonas, Howard; Alverson, Dale C

2010-11-01

To enhance the quality of neurosurgery consultations, triage, and transport decisions between a Level I trauma service neurosurgery program at the University of New Mexico Hospital and referring hospitals, a secure Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)-compliant Web-based system was developed, to which digital neurological images could be sent for review by a neurosurgeon for consultation or patient transfer. Based upon prior experience of neurosurgery, it was predicted that 25% of transfer requests would be avoided if the neurosurgeons reviewed the computerized tomography scans at the time of a transfer request. In addition, it was predicted in 25% of the case that changes in management recommendations would take place independent of the transfer decision. The program was designed to allow referring hospitals to transmit digital images to the Web site, providing consulting doctors with additional patient information. This project analyzed the neurosurgeons' responses to questions designed to determine if transport or management decisions were altered when using this telehealth program in response to a request for consultation or transfer from a rural facility. Analysis of the responses of the consulting neurosurgeons revealed that, after viewing the images, 44% of the potential transfers were avoided and 44% of consulted cases resulted in management recommendation changes independent of the transfer decision. Use of the system resulted in improved triage and changes in transfer or management recommendations. A significant number of potential transfers were avoided, resulting in transport cost avoidance, more effective use of resources, and more appropriate use of the neurosurgery service as well as improved patient preparation.

Predictable Unpredictability: the Problem with Basing Medicare Policy on Long-Term Financial Forecasting.

PubMed

Glied, Sherry; Zaylor, Abigail

2015-07-01

The authors assess how Medicare financing and projections of future costs have changed since 2000. They also assess the impact of legislative reforms on the sources and levels of financing and compare cost forecasts made at different times. Although the aging U.S. population and rising health care costs are expected to increase the share of gross domestic product devoted to Medicare, changes made in the program over the past decade have helped stabilize Medicare's financial outlook--even as benefits have been expanded. Long-term forecasting uncertainty should make policymakers and beneficiaries wary of dramatic changes to the program in the near term that are intended to alter its long-term forecast: the range of error associated with cost forecasts rises as the forecast window lengthens. Instead, policymakers should focus on the immediate policy window, taking steps to reduce the current burden of Medicare costs by containing spending today.

Effect of changes in graduate medical education funding on emergency medicine residency programs.

PubMed

Stead, L; Schafermeyer, R W; Counselman, F L; Blackburn, P; Perina, D

2001-06-01

To determine whether changes in graduate medical education (GME) funding have had an impact on emergency medicine (EM) residency training programs. A 34-question survey was mailed to the program directors (PDs) of all 115 Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME)-accredited EM residency programs in the United States in the fall of 1998, requesting information concerning the impact of changes in GME funding on various aspects of the EM training. The results were then compared with a similar unpublished survey conducted in the fall of 1996. One hundred one completed surveys were returned (88% response rate). Seventy-one (70%) of the responding EM residency programs were PGY-I through PGY-III, compared with 55 (61%) of the responding programs in 1996. The number of PGY-II through PGY-IV programs decreased from 25 (28%) of responding programs in 1996 to 17 (16%). The number of PGY-I through PGY-IV programs increased slightly (13 vs 10); the number of EM residency positions remained relatively stable. Fifteen programs projected an increase in their number of training positions in the next two years, while only three predicted a decrease. Of the respondents, 56 programs reported reductions in non-EM residency positions and 35 programs reported elimination of fellowship positions at their institutions. Only four of these were EM fellowships. Forty-six respondents reported a reduction in the number of non-EM residents rotating through their EDs, and of these, 11 programs reported this had a moderate to significant effect on their ability to adequately staff the ED with resident physicians. Sixteen programs limited resident recruitment to only those eligible for the full three years of GME funding. Eighty-seven EM programs reported no change in faculty size due to funding issues. Sixty-two programs reported no change in the total number of hours of faculty coverage in the ED, while 34 programs reported an increase. Three EM programs reported recommendations being made to close their residency programs in the near future. Changes in GME funding have not caused a decrease in the number of existing EM residency and fellowship training positions, but may have had an impact in other areas, including: an increase in the number of EM programs structured in a PGY-I through PGY-III format (with a corresponding decrease in the number of PGY-II through PGY-IV programs); a decrease in the number of non-EM residents rotating through the ED; restriction of resident applicants who are ineligible for full GME funding from consideration by some EM training programs; and an increase in the total number of faculty clinical hours without an increase in faculty size.

Structure prediction of polyglutamine disease proteins: comparison of methods

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The expansion of polyglutamine (poly-Q) repeats in several unrelated proteins is associated with at least ten neurodegenerative diseases. The length of the poly-Q regions plays an important role in the progression of the diseases. The number of glutamines (Q) is inversely related to the onset age of these polyglutamine diseases, and the expansion of poly-Q repeats has been associated with protein misfolding. However, very little is known about the structural changes induced by the expansion of the repeats. Computational methods can provide an alternative to determine the structure of these poly-Q proteins, but it is important to evaluate their performance before large scale prediction work is done. Results In this paper, two popular protein structure prediction programs, I-TASSER and Rosetta, have been used to predict the structure of the N-terminal fragment of a protein associated with Huntington's disease with 17 glutamines. Results show that both programs have the ability to find the native structures, but I-TASSER performs better for the overall task. Conclusions Both I-TASSER and Rosetta can be used for structure prediction of proteins with poly-Q repeats. Knowledge of poly-Q structure may significantly contribute to development of therapeutic strategies for poly-Q diseases. PMID:25080018

A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

Treesearch

Eric L. Smith

1987-01-01

Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

Guidelines for Migrant Infant and Toddler Day Care Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birckmayer, Jennifer; Willis, Anne

Constant, unpredictable change is a condition of daily life for children of migrant workers; this factor affects much of the care that should be given them. Predictability in the child's daily experience with the same basic routines, toys, bed, and caretakers helps stabilize his world and allows him to build up experiences and make sense of them.…

Wanted: Community-College Leaders to Serve in the Hinterlands

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eddy, Pamela L.

2009-01-01

Signs of a leadership crisis in community colleges have been building over the past decade, with one study predicting that as many as 84 percent of current presidents could retire within the next 10 years. Several plans of action are under way to handle this changing of the guard, including more leadership-preparation programs offered by such…

SeaRISE: A Multidisciplinary Research Initiative to Predict Rapid Changes in Global Sea Level Caused by Collapse of Marine Ice Sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The results of a workshop held to discuss the role of the polar ice sheets in global climate change are reported. The participants agreed that the most important aspect of the ice sheets' involvement in climate change is the potential of marine ice sheets to cause a rapid change in global sea level. To address this concern, a research initiative is called for that considers the full complexity of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-lithosphere system. This initiative, called SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) has the goal of predicting the contribution of marine ice sheets to rapid changes in global sea level in the next decade to few centuries. To attain this goal, a coordinated program of multidisciplinary investigations must be launched with the linked objectives of understanding the current state, internal dynamics, interactions, and history of this environmental system. The key questions needed to satisfy these objectives are presented and discussed along with a plan of action to make the SeaRISE project a reality.

Technique for predicting high-frequency stability characteristics of gaseous-propellant combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Priem, R. J.; Jefferson, Y. S. Y.

1973-01-01

A technique for predicting the stability characteristics of a gaseous-propellant rocket combustion system is developed based on a model that assumes coupling between the flow through the injector and the oscillating chamber pressure. The theoretical model uses a lumped parameter approach for the flow elements in the injection system plus wave dynamics in the combustion chamber. The injector flow oscillations are coupled to the chamber pressure oscillations with a delay time. Frequency and decay (or growth) rates are calculated for various combustor design and operating parameters to demonstrate the influence of various parameters on stability. Changes in oxidizer design parameters had a much larger influence on stability than a similar change in fuel parameters. A complete description of the computer program used to make these calculations is given in an appendix.

The study of heat penetration of kimchi soup on stationary and rotary retorts.

PubMed

Cho, Won-Il; Park, Eun-Ji; Cheon, Hee Soon; Chung, Myong-Soo

2015-03-01

The aim of this study was to determine the heat-penetration characteristics using stationary and rotary retorts to manufacture Kimchi soup. Both heat-penetration tests and computer simulation based on mathematical modeling were performed. The sterility was measured at five different positions in the pouch. The results revealed only a small deviation of F 0 among the different positions, and the rate of heat transfer was increased by rotation of the retort. The thermal processing of retort-pouched Kimchi soup was analyzed mathematically using a finite-element model, and optimum models for predicting the time course of the temperature and F 0 were developed. The mathematical models could accurately predict the actual heat penetration of retort-pouched Kimchi soup. The average deviation of the temperature between the experimental and mathematical predicted model was 2.46% (R(2)=0.975). The changes in nodal temperature and F 0 caused by microbial inactivation in the finite-element model predicted using the NISA program were very similar to that of the experimental data of for the retorted Kimchi soup during sterilization with rotary retorts. The correlation coefficient between the simulation using the NISA program and the experimental data was very high, at 99%.

The Study of Heat Penetration of Kimchi Soup on Stationary and Rotary Retorts

PubMed Central

Cho, Won-Il; Park, Eun-Ji; Cheon, Hee Soon; Chung, Myong-Soo

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the heat-penetration characteristics using stationary and rotary retorts to manufacture Kimchi soup. Both heat-penetration tests and computer simulation based on mathematical modeling were performed. The sterility was measured at five different positions in the pouch. The results revealed only a small deviation of F0 among the different positions, and the rate of heat transfer was increased by rotation of the retort. The thermal processing of retort-pouched Kimchi soup was analyzed mathematically using a finite-element model, and optimum models for predicting the time course of the temperature and F0 were developed. The mathematical models could accurately predict the actual heat penetration of retort-pouched Kimchi soup. The average deviation of the temperature between the experimental and mathematical predicted model was 2.46% (R2=0.975). The changes in nodal temperature and F0 caused by microbial inactivation in the finite-element model predicted using the NISA program were very similar to that of the experimental data of for the retorted Kimchi soup during sterilization with rotary retorts. The correlation coefficient between the simulation using the NISA program and the experimental data was very high, at 99%. PMID:25866751

Predicted avian responses to bioenergy development scenarios in an intensive agricultural landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; McCoy, Tim D.; Guan, Qingfeng

2015-01-01

Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize (Zea mays) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.

Exercise motivation, eating, and body image variables as predictors of weight control.

PubMed

Teixeira, Pedro J; Going, Scott B; Houtkooper, Linda B; Cussler, Ellen C; Metcalfe, Lauve L; Blew, Rob M; Sardinha, Luis B; Lohman, Timothy G

2006-01-01

This study investigated changes in psychosocial variables related to exercise, eating, and body image during a weight reduction program and evaluated their association with weight loss in middle-aged overweight and obese women up to 1 yr after intervention. The 136 participants (age, 48.1 +/- 4.4 yr; weight, 30.6 +/- 5.6 kg x m(-2)) who completed the 4-month lifestyle weight reduction program (86% retention), losing -6.2 +/- 4.6% (P < 0.001) of their initial weight, were followed up for 12 additional months. Of these, 82% completed 16-month assessments (weight change, -5.5 +/- 7.7%, P < 0.001). Psychosocial variables were assessed by validated instruments in standardized conditions at baseline and after the intervention (4 months). Compared with 4-month assessments, body weight did not change at 16 months (P > 0.09). Changes in eating restraint, disinhibition, and hunger; exercise, self-efficacy, and intrinsic motivation; body shape concerns; and physical self-worth were associated with weight change at 4 months (P < 0.001, except hunger, P < 0.05). Baseline-adjusted 4-month scores in all psychosocial variables also predicted weight change from baseline to 16 months (P < 0.01), except hunger (P > 0.05). After controlling for 4-month weight change and other covariates, increases in exercise intrinsic motivation remained predictive of weight loss at 16 months (P < 0.05). Multiple linear regression showed that eating variables were significant and independent correlates of short-term weight change, whereas changes in exercise variables were stronger predictors of longer term weight outcomes. Results highlight the importance of cognitive processes during weight control and support the notion that initial focus on diet is associated with short-term weight loss, while change in exercise-related motivational factors, with a special emphasis on intrinsic sources of motivation (e.g., interest and enjoyment in exercise), play a more important role in longer term weight management.

An Overview of Factors Associated with Adherence to Lifestyle Modification Programs for Weight Management in Adults

PubMed Central

Chan, Ruth S. M.; Sea, Mandy M. M.

2017-01-01

This review aims to provide an overview of the factors associated with adherence reported in existing literature on lifestyle modification programs for weight management among the adult population. An electronic search was performed using PubMed, Medline, PsycINFO and PsycARTICLE to identify studies that examined the factors of adherence to lifestyle modification programs with explicit definition of adherence indicators. We identified 19 studies published between 2004 and 2016. The most commonly used indicator of adherence was attrition, followed by attendance, self-monitoring and dietary adherence. A broad array of factors has been studied but only few studies exploring each factor. Limited evidence suggested older age, higher education, healthier eating and physical activity behaviours, higher stage of change at baseline and higher initial weight loss may predict better adherence. On the other hand, having depression, stress, strong body shape concern, more previous weight loss attempts and being unemployed may predict poor adherence. Inconsistent findings were obtained for self-efficacy, motivation and male gender. This review highlights the need for more rigorous studies to enhance our knowledge on factors related to adherence. Identification of the factors of adherence could provide important implication for program improvement, ultimately improving the effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle modification program. PMID:28813030

Exercise capacity before and after an 8-week multidisciplinary inpatient rehabilitation program in lung cancer patients: a pilot study.

PubMed

Spruit, Martijn A; Janssen, Paul P; Willemsen, Sonja C P; Hochstenbag, Monique M H; Wouters, Emiel F M

2006-05-01

Although lung cancer is a highly prevalent type of cancer, the effects of an inpatient multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on pulmonary function and exercise capacity have never been studied in these patients. Pulmonary function, 6-min walking distance and peak exercise capacity of 10 patients with a severely impaired pulmonary function following treatment of lung cancer were assessed in this pilot study before and after an 8-week inpatient multidisciplinary rehabilitation program. At baseline, patients had a restrictive pulmonary function and an apparent exercise intolerance (median 6-min walking distance: 63.6% predicted; median peak cycling load: 58.5% predicted). Despite the lack of change in median pulmonary function [FEV1: -0.01L, p = 0.5469], functional exercise capacity [145 m; 43.2% of the initial values, p=0.0020] and peak exercise capacity [26 W; 34.4% of the initial values, p = 0.0078] improved significantly compared to baseline. Future trials have to corroborate the present findings. Nevertheless, patients with lung cancer have a clear indication to start a comprehensive rehabilitation program following intensive treatment of their disease. In fact, based on the results of the present pilot study it appears that these patients are good candidates for pulmonary rehabilitation programs.

Progress in Modeling Pu Properties and Aging - ESC Review, March 19-23, 2001

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolfer, W G; Caturla, M; Kubota, A

2001-03-29

An important component of the Pu aging programs both here at LLNL and at LANL is the development of models for the aging processes. These models will, in the foreseeable future, be validated with more and more data from different experiments, and eventually enable us to predict the lifetime of pits. The processes of aging from within the material are mainly caused by the radioactive decay of Pu, and this produces three drivers for changes in properties: (1) Radiation damage in the form of displacements, of defects, of dislocations, and voids. (2) Helium will aggregate in the form of bubblesmore » and cavities. (3) Uranium, Americium, and Neptunium will change the chemical composition and perhaps the phase stability. All the three drivers act synergistically, no doubt. But it is useful to approach the complexity of Pu aging with the strategy of ''first divide, conquer, and then unify''. In this spirit, we have divided the program into three major task areas with individual subtasks to be conquered by various researchers. The subtasks and staffing has changed somewhat from last year, and this is indicated on the viewgraph by underlines. Undoubtedly, it will change in the future, but the objectives of the major tasks and of the entire project will not change until the mission as stated at the beginning will have been accomplished. As you see from the third task, there is a strong emphasis on providing theoretical and computational support for critical, fundamental experiments. Before reviewing the progress made last year for the various tasks, let me briefly state what the physical properties are that we monitor for signs of aging. Prominent is the change in density and microstructure, and its effects on strength and EOS. You will hear little if anything at all about the latter two properties, but work is in progress on these issues, and the review committee will hear about it at the next review. For this review, I want to concentrate on dimensional changes and the underlying changes in microstructure. Once we understand the changes in the microstructure, we can perhaps predict its influence on strength and EOS. It forms the basis for the predictive capability that we want to develop.« less

Self-Regulation and Recall: Growth Curve Modeling of Intervention Outcomes for Older Adults

PubMed Central

West, Robin L.; Hastings, Erin C.

2013-01-01

Memory training has often been supported as a potential means to improve performance for older adults. Less often studied are the characteristics of trainees that benefit most from training. Using a self-regulatory perspective, the current project examined a latent growth curve model to predict training-related gains for middle-aged and older adult trainees from individual differences (e.g., education), information processing skills (strategy use) and self-regulatory factors such as self-efficacy, control, and active engagement in training. For name recall, a model including strategy usage and strategy change as predictors of memory gain, along with self-efficacy and self-efficacy change, showed comparable fit to a more parsimonious model including only self-efficacy variables as predictors. The best fit to the text recall data was a model focusing on self-efficacy change as the main predictor of memory change, and that model showed significantly better fit than a model also including strategy usage variables as predictors. In these models, overall performance was significantly predicted by age and memory self-efficacy, and subsequent training-related gains in performance were best predicted directly by change in self-efficacy (text recall), or indirectly through the impact of active engagement and self-efficacy on gains (name recall). These results underscore the benefits of targeting self-regulatory factors in intervention programs designed to improve memory skills. PMID:21604891

Self-regulation and recall: growth curve modeling of intervention outcomes for older adults.

PubMed

West, Robin L; Hastings, Erin C

2011-12-01

Memory training has often been supported as a potential means to improve performance for older adults. Less often studied are the characteristics of trainees that benefit most from training. Using a self-regulatory perspective, the current project examined a latent growth curve model to predict training-related gains for middle-aged and older adult trainees from individual differences (e.g., education), information processing skills (strategy use) and self-regulatory factors such as self-efficacy, control, and active engagement in training. For name recall, a model including strategy usage and strategy change as predictors of memory gain, along with self-efficacy and self-efficacy change, showed comparable fit to a more parsimonious model including only self-efficacy variables as predictors. The best fit to the text recall data was a model focusing on self-efficacy change as the main predictor of memory change, and that model showed significantly better fit than a model also including strategy usage variables as predictors. In these models, overall performance was significantly predicted by age and memory self-efficacy, and subsequent training-related gains in performance were best predicted directly by change in self-efficacy (text recall), or indirectly through the impact of active engagement and self-efficacy on gains (name recall). These results underscore the benefits of targeting self-regulatory factors in intervention programs designed to improve memory skills.

Acceptance and relationship context: a model of substance use disorder treatment outcome.

PubMed

Gifford, Elizabeth V; Ritsher, Jennifer B; McKellar, John D; Moos, Rudolf H

2006-08-01

This study presented and tested a model of behavior change in long-term substance use disorder recovery, the acceptance and relationship context (ARC) model. The model specifies that acceptance-based behavior and constructive social relationships lead to recovery, and that treatment programs with supportive, involved relationships facilitate the development of these factors. This study used a prospective longitudinal naturalistic design and controlled for baseline levels of study variables. The model was tested on a sample of 2549 patients in 15 residential substance use disorder treatment programs. Acceptance-based responding (ABR), social relationship quality (SRQ), treatment program alliance (TPA) and substance use-related impairment were assessed using interviews and self-report questionnaires. TPA predicted ABR and SRQ and, in turn, ABR predicted better 2-year and 5-year treatment outcomes. The baseline-controlled model accounted for 41% of the variance in outcome at 2-year follow-up and 28% of the variance in outcome at 5-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Patients from treatment programs with an affiliative relationship network are more likely to respond adaptively to internal states associated previously with substance use, develop constructive social relationships and achieve long-term treatment benefits.

Efficacy of the National Football League-225 Test to Track Changes in One Repetition Maximum Bench Press After Training in National Collegiate Athletic Association Division IA Football Players.

PubMed

Mann, J Bryan; Ivey, Pat A; Stoner, Josh D; Mayhew, Jerry L; Brechue, William F

2015-11-01

Numerous investigations have attested to the efficacy of the National Football League (NFL)-225 test to estimate one repetition maximum (1RM) bench press. However, no studies have assessed the efficacy of the test to track changes in strength across a training program. The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy of the NFL-225 test for determining the change in 1RM bench press in National Collegiate Athletic Association Division IA college football players after training. Over a 4-year period, players (n = 203) were assessed before and after a 6-week off-season resistance program for 1RM bench press and repetitions completed with 102.3 kg (225 lbs). Test sessions typically occurred within 1 week of each other. Players significantly increased 1RM by 4.2 ± 8.6 kg and NFL-225 repetitions by 0.9 ± 2.3, although the effect size (ES) for each was trivial (ES = 0.03 and 0.07, respectively). National Football League 225 prediction equations had higher correlations with 1RM before training (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.95) than after training (ICC = 0.75). The correlation between the change in NFL-225 repetitions and change in 1RM was low and negative (r = -0.22, p < 0.02). Short-term heavy resistance training may alter the association between muscular strength and muscular endurance in college football players and render the NFL-225 test less effective in predicting the change in 1RM bench press strength after short-term training.

[The Da Vinci Medical-mental motivation program for supporting lifestyle changes in patients with type 2 diabetes].

PubMed

Kempf, K; Dirk, M; Kolb, H; Hebestreit, A; Bittner, G; Martin, S

2012-02-01

Healthy diet and physical activity can improve metabolic control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, lifestyle change without external help is difficult: an alteration of mental attitude is necessary to achieve long-term success. A computer-based motivational program ("Da Vinci") has been developed to help patients to change their mental attitudes and beliefs. Patients with type 2 diabetes were supervised by psychological trainers in four sessions at ten study centers. The interactive computer program allowed for identification of motivation restraints and overcoming them. Parameters of carbohydrate metabolism were measured at the beginning and end of the three-months program as well as three and six months after end of program. All participants (n = 61) developed a positive attitude towards the range of their action and by themselves changed their lifestyle. After three months their weight (-4.6 kg; p < 0.0001), body mass index (-1.1 kg/m2; p < 0.0001), waist circumference (-3.5 cm; p < 0.0001), HbA1c (-0.6 %; p < 0.0001), triglycerides (-31.1 mg/dl; p = 0.033), systolic (-4.0 mmHg; p = 0.005) and diastolic blood pressure (-3.0 mmHg; p = 0.006) had been reduced. Short duration of diabetes and high baseline HbA1c values were predictive for successful HbA1c reduction. Three and six months after end of the program participants were able to maintain or even augment achieved improvements. During the motivational program, which is intended to alter mental attitude and beliefs, but not to teach knowledge about diabetes, participants were able to significantly improve their metabolic control. As these improvements were maintained long-term, this points to sustainable lifestyle change. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

The impact of premorbid adjustment, neurocognition, and depression on social and role functioning in patients in an early psychosis treatment program.

PubMed

Minor, Kyle S; Friedman-Yakoobian, Michelle; Leung, Y Jude; Meyer, Eric C; Zimmet, Suzanna V; Caplan, Brina; Monteleone, Thomas; Bryant, Caitlin; Guyer, Margaret; Keshavan, Matcheri S; Seidman, Larry J

2015-05-01

Functional impairments are debilitating concomitants of psychotic disorders and are present early in the illness course and, commonly, prior to psychosis onset. The factors affecting social and role functioning in early psychosis (EP) following treatment are unclear. We evaluated whether six months of participation in the PREP(R), Boston, EP treatment program, part of a public-academic community mental health center, was related to improvements in social and role functioning and whether premorbid adjustment in adolescence, baseline neurocognition, and depression symptoms predicted functional improvement. The Global Functioning Social and Role scales, MATRICS neurocognitive battery, and Calgary Depression Scale were assessed at baseline and six months during naturalistic treatment, while premorbid adjustment was measured at baseline. All participants were psychotic disorder patients in PREP(R) (n = 46 with social functioning and 47 with role functioning measures at both time points). Large improvements were observed in role functioning (d = 0.84) and medium to large improvements were observed in social functioning (d = 0.70). Models consisting of adolescent premorbid adjustment and change in depression symptoms predicted social and role functioning change, whereas neuropsychological functioning did not. Substantial improvements in social and role functioning were observed among this sample participating in a recovery-based EP program. The impact of clinical factors on social and role functioning was highlighted. Further studies of premorbid adjustment in adolescence and the treatment of depression in EP programs in controlled treatment trials are needed to confirm these findings. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Longitudinal Model Predicting Self-Concept in Pediatric Chronic Illness.

PubMed

Emerson, Natacha D; Morrell, Holly E R; Neece, Cameron; Tapanes, Daniel; Distelberg, Brian

2018-04-16

Although self-concept has been identified as salient to the psychosocial adjustment of adolescents dealing with a chronic illness (CI), little research has focused on its predictors it. Given that depression and parent-child attachment have been linked to self-concept in the population at large, the goal of this study was to evaluate these relationships longitudinally in a sample of adolescents with CI. Using participant data from the Mastering Each New Direction (MEND) program, a 3-month psychosocial, family based intensive outpatient program for adolescents with CI, we employed multilevel modeling to test longitudinal changes in self-concept, as predicted by depressive symptoms and parent-child attachment, in a sample of 50 youths (M age  = 14.56, SD age  = 1.82) participating in MEND. Both "time spent in the program" and decreases in depressive symptoms were associated with increases in self-concept over time. Higher baseline levels of avoidant attachment to both mother and father were also associated with greater initial levels of self-concept. Targeting depressive symptoms and supporting adaptive changes in attachment may be key to promoting a healthy self-concept in pediatric CI populations. The association between avoidant attachment and higher baseline self-concept scores may reflect differences in participants' autonomy, self-confidence, or depression. Limitations of the study include variability in the amount of time spent in the program, attrition in final time point measures, and the inability to fully examine and model all potential covariates due to a small sample size (e.g. power). © 2018 Family Process Institute.

Network inference reveals novel connections in pathways regulating growth and defense in the yeast salt response.

PubMed

MacGilvray, Matthew E; Shishkova, Evgenia; Chasman, Deborah; Place, Michael; Gitter, Anthony; Coon, Joshua J; Gasch, Audrey P

2018-05-01

Cells respond to stressful conditions by coordinating a complex, multi-faceted response that spans many levels of physiology. Much of the response is coordinated by changes in protein phosphorylation. Although the regulators of transcriptome changes during stress are well characterized in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the upstream regulatory network controlling protein phosphorylation is less well dissected. Here, we developed a computational approach to infer the signaling network that regulates phosphorylation changes in response to salt stress. We developed an approach to link predicted regulators to groups of likely co-regulated phospho-peptides responding to stress, thereby creating new edges in a background protein interaction network. We then use integer linear programming (ILP) to integrate wild type and mutant phospho-proteomic data and predict the network controlling stress-activated phospho-proteomic changes. The network we inferred predicted new regulatory connections between stress-activated and growth-regulating pathways and suggested mechanisms coordinating metabolism, cell-cycle progression, and growth during stress. We confirmed several network predictions with co-immunoprecipitations coupled with mass-spectrometry protein identification and mutant phospho-proteomic analysis. Results show that the cAMP-phosphodiesterase Pde2 physically interacts with many stress-regulated transcription factors targeted by PKA, and that reduced phosphorylation of those factors during stress requires the Rck2 kinase that we show physically interacts with Pde2. Together, our work shows how a high-quality computational network model can facilitate discovery of new pathway interactions during osmotic stress.

WallGen, software to construct layered cellulose-hemicellulose networks and predict their small deformation mechanics.

PubMed

Kha, Hung; Tuble, Sigrid C; Kalyanasundaram, Shankar; Williamson, Richard E

2010-02-01

We understand few details about how the arrangement and interactions of cell wall polymers produce the mechanical properties of primary cell walls. Consequently, we cannot quantitatively assess if proposed wall structures are mechanically reasonable or assess the effectiveness of proposed mechanisms to change mechanical properties. As a step to remedying this, we developed WallGen, a Fortran program (available on request) building virtual cellulose-hemicellulose networks by stochastic self-assembly whose mechanical properties can be predicted by finite element analysis. The thousands of mechanical elements in the virtual wall are intended to have one-to-one spatial and mechanical correspondence with their real wall counterparts of cellulose microfibrils and hemicellulose chains. User-defined inputs set the properties of the two polymer types (elastic moduli, dimensions of microfibrils and hemicellulose chains, hemicellulose molecular weight) and their population properties (microfibril alignment and volume fraction, polymer weight percentages in the network). This allows exploration of the mechanical consequences of variations in nanostructure that might occur in vivo and provides estimates of how uncertainties regarding certain inputs will affect WallGen's mechanical predictions. We summarize WallGen's operation and the choice of values for user-defined inputs and show that predicted values for the elastic moduli of multinet walls subject to small displacements overlap measured values. "Design of experiment" methods provide systematic exploration of how changed input values affect mechanical properties and suggest that changing microfibril orientation and/or the number of hemicellulose cross-bridges could change wall mechanical anisotropy.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Review of science issues, deployment strategy, and status for the ARM north slope of Alaska-Adjacent Arctic Ocean climate research site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stamnes, K.; Ellingson, R.G.; Curry, J.A.

1999-01-01

Recent climate modeling results point to the Arctic as a region that is particularly sensitive to global climate change. The Arctic warming predicted by the models to result from the expected doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide is two to three times the predicted mean global warming, and considerably greater than the warming predicted for the Antarctic. The North Slope of Alaska-Adjacent Arctic Ocean (NSA-AAO) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is designed to collect data on temperature-ice-albedo and water vapor-cloud-radiation feedbacks, which are believed to be important to the predicted enhanced warming inmore » the Arctic. The most important scientific issues of Arctic, as well as global, significance to be addressed at the NSA-AAO CART site are discussed, and a brief overview of the current approach toward, and status of, site development is provided. ARM radiometric and remote sensing instrumentation is already deployed and taking data in the perennial Arctic ice pack as part of the SHEBA (Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic ocean) experiment. In parallel with ARM`s participation in SHEBA, the NSA-AAO facility near Barrow was formally dedicated on 1 July 1997 and began routine data collection early in 1998. This schedule permits the US Department of Energy`s ARM Program, NASA`s Arctic Cloud program, and the SHEBA program (funded primarily by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research) to be mutually supportive. In addition, location of the NSA-AAO Barrow facility on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration land immediately adjacent to its Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory Barrow Observatory includes NOAA in this major interagency Arctic collaboration.« less

Care delivery and compensation system changes: a case study of organizational readiness within a large dental care practice organization in the United States.

PubMed

Cunha-Cruz, Joana; Milgrom, Peter; Huebner, Colleen E; Scott, JoAnna; Ludwig, Sharity; Dysert, Jeanne; Mitchell, Melissa; Allen, Gary; Shirtcliff, R Mike

2017-12-20

Dental care delivery systems in the United States are consolidating and large practice organizations are becoming more common. At the same time, greater accountability for addressing disparities in access to care is being demanded when public funds are used to pay for care. As change occurs within these new practice structures, attempts to implement change in the delivery system may be hampered by failure to understand the organizational climate or fail to prepare employees to accommodate new goals or processes. Studies of organizational behavior within oral health care are sparse and have not addressed consolidation of current delivery systems. The objective of this case study was to assess organizational readiness for implementing change in a large dental care organization consisting of staff model clinics and affiliated dental practices and test associations of readiness with workforce characteristics and work environment. A dental care organization implemented a multifaceted quality improvement program, called PREDICT, in which community-based mobile and clinic-based dental services were integrated and the team compensated based in part on meeting performance targets. Dental care providers and supporting staff members (N = 181) were surveyed before program implementation and organizational readiness for implementing change (ORIC) was assessed by two 5-point scales: change commitment and efficacy. Providers and staff demonstrated high organizational readiness for change. Median change commitment was 3.8 (Interquartile range [IQR]: 3.3-4.3) and change efficacy was 3.8 (IQR: 3.0-4.2). In the adjusted regression model, change commitment was associated with organizational climate, support for methods to arrest tooth decay and was inversely related to office chaos. Change efficacy was associated with organizational climate, support for the company's mission and was inversely related to burnout. Each unit increase in the organizational climate scale predicted 0.45 and 0.8-unit increases in change commitment and change efficacy. The survey identified positive readiness for change and highlighted weaknesses that are important cautions for this organization and others initiating change. Future studies will examine how organizational readiness to change, workforce characteristics and work environment influenced successful implementation within this organization.

A job-satisfaction measure for internal medicine residency program directors.

PubMed

Beasley, B W; Kern, D E; Howard, D M; Kolodner, K

1999-03-01

To develop a job-satisfaction measure that encompasses the multifaceted job of internal medicine residency program directors. Questions were devised to measure program directors satisfaction with various facets of their jobs. In 1996, the authors surveyed all non-military internal medicine program directors in the United States. Of the program directors surveyed, 301 (78%) responded. More respondents than non-respondents held the title of department chairperson in addition to the title of program director (22% vs 7%). Factor analysis and correlation analysis yielded a multifaceted measure (termed PD-Sat) composed of 20 questions and six facets (work with residents, colleague relationships, resources, patient care, pay, and promotion) that made sense based on literature review and discussions with program directors (face validity). The PD-Sat had good internal reliability (Cronbach's alpha = .88), as had each of its six facets (Cronbach's alphas = .60-.90). The six facets correlated modestly with one another (Pearson's r2 = .12-.67), suggesting they were measuring different aspects of a common concept. The PD-Sat correlated significantly with an established four-question global job-satisfaction scale used in previous studies (Pearson's r2 = .33) demonstrating concurrent validity. Scores on the PD-Sat predicted whether program directors were considering, seeking, or making a job change (predictive validity). The PD-Sat performed comparably well in subsets of program directors who were and were not department chairs, suggesting that it might be applicable to different populations of program directors. The authors have developed a new facet-specific job-satisfaction measure that is reliable and valid for assessing the job satisfaction of internal medicine program directors. Because job descriptions for program directors in other specialties are similar, it may also be useful in these populations.

The effect of a depression prevention program on negative cognitive style trajectories in early adolescents.

PubMed

Kindt, Karlijn C M; Kleinjan, Marloes; Janssens, Jan M A M; Scholte, Ron H J

2016-10-01

As restructuring a negative cognitive style is a central skill taught in many depression prevention programs, we tested whether a universal prevention program evoked a change in negative cognitive style in adolescents. In addition, we examined distinct developmental trajectories of negative cognitive styles and assessed whether research condition (intervention versus control) predicted these trajectories. Young adolescents (n = 1343; Mean age = 13.4 years; SD = 0.77; 52.3% girls) were randomly allocated to a cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT)-based depression prevention program or a care as usual control condition. A negative cognitive style was assessed at baseline, post-treatment and 6- and 12-months follow-up. Adolescents who received the intervention did not differ in their negative cognitive style from the control group at any time-point. We found four distinctive trajectories of negative cognitive style: normative, increasing, decreasing and stable high, which were not predicted by intervention condition and were not moderated by gender. Yet, the results revealed a trend, which indicated that adolescents who followed the program tended to show an increasing than a normative developmental pattern. We concluded that the CBT-based depression prevention program did not reduce or prevent an increase in negative cognitive style. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Molecular Structure-Based Large-Scale Prediction of Chemical-Induced Gene Expression Changes.

PubMed

Liu, Ruifeng; AbdulHameed, Mohamed Diwan M; Wallqvist, Anders

2017-09-25

The quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) approach has been used to model a wide range of chemical-induced biological responses. However, it had not been utilized to model chemical-induced genomewide gene expression changes until very recently, owing to the complexity of training and evaluating a very large number of models. To address this issue, we examined the performance of a variable nearest neighbor (v-NN) method that uses information on near neighbors conforming to the principle that similar structures have similar activities. Using a data set of gene expression signatures of 13 150 compounds derived from cell-based measurements in the NIH Library of Integrated Network-based Cellular Signatures program, we were able to make predictions for 62% of the compounds in a 10-fold cross validation test, with a correlation coefficient of 0.61 between the predicted and experimentally derived signatures-a reproducibility rivaling that of high-throughput gene expression measurements. To evaluate the utility of the predicted gene expression signatures, we compared the predicted and experimentally derived signatures in their ability to identify drugs known to cause specific liver, kidney, and heart injuries. Overall, the predicted and experimentally derived signatures had similar receiver operating characteristics, whose areas under the curve ranged from 0.71 to 0.77 and 0.70 to 0.73, respectively, across the three organ injury models. However, detailed analyses of enrichment curves indicate that signatures predicted from multiple near neighbors outperformed those derived from experiments, suggesting that averaging information from near neighbors may help improve the signal from gene expression measurements. Our results demonstrate that the v-NN method can serve as a practical approach for modeling large-scale, genomewide, chemical-induced, gene expression changes.

Motivation and reasons to quit: predictive validity among adolescent smokers.

PubMed

Turner, Lindsey R; Mermelstein, Robin

2004-01-01

To examine reasons to quit among adolescents in a smoking cessation program, and whether reasons were associated with subsequent cessation. Participants were 351 adolescents. At baseline, adolescents reported motivation, reasons to quit, and stage of change for cessation. Quit status was assessed at end of treatment. Girls were more likely to endorse image and appearance reasons to quit. Cessation was more likely among adolescents with higher motivation and those wanting to quit because of friends. Different reasons to quit were associated with motivation and cessation. Baseline motivation strongly predicted cessation, suggesting the relative value of assessing global motivation.

Predictive models for fish assemblages in eastern USA streams: implications for assessing biodiversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meador, Michael R.; Carlisle, Daren M.

2009-01-01

Management and conservation of aquatic systems require the ability to assess biological conditions and identify changes in biodiversity. Predictive models for fish assemblages were constructed to assess biological condition and changes in biodiversity for streams sampled in the eastern United States as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Separate predictive models were developed for northern and southern regions. Reference sites were designated using land cover and local professional judgment. Taxonomic completeness was quantified based on the ratio of the number of observed native fish species expected to occur to the number of expected native fish species. Models for both regions accurately predicted fish species composition at reference sites with relatively high precision and low bias. In general, species that occurred less frequently than expected (decreasers) tended to prefer riffle areas and larger substrates, such as gravel and cobble, whereas increaser species (occurring more frequently than expected) tended to prefer pools, backwater areas, and vegetated and sand substrates. In the north, the percentage of species identified as increasers and the percentage identified as decreasers were equal, whereas in the south nearly two-thirds of the species examined were identified as decreasers. Predictive models of fish species can provide a standardized indicator for consistent assessments of biological condition at varying spatial scales and critical information for an improved understanding of fish species that are potentially at risk of loss with changing water quality conditions.

Which Pedagogical Parameters Predict the General Quality of ICT Integration from the Perspective of Elementary School Leaders?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shamir-Inbal, Tamar; Blau, Ina

2017-01-01

Technological changes in the digital age require schools to integrate innovative technologies in learning and the curriculum. This study analyzes data collected from elementary schools toward the end of the second and the third years of the national program for the gradual integration of ICT in Israeli schools. The study examines how school…

Accelerated test program for sealed nickel-cadmium spacecraft batteries/cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, L. A.

1976-01-01

The feasibility was examined of inducing an accelerated test on sealed Nickel-Cadmium batteries or cells as a tool for spacecraft projects and battery users to determine: (1) the prediction of life capability; (2) a method of evaluating the effect of design and component changes in cells; and (3) a means of reducing time and cost of cell testing.

Predicting the Quality of Elementary Mathematics Teachers Utilizing Pre-Graduation Data Collected from Teacher Preparation Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robertson, Mary Amos

2016-01-01

In order to change the direction of mathematics education, the training of elementary teachers in the United States needs to be of equal or higher quality than top preforming countries. However, pre-service elementary teachers in the United States fall behind their peers in other countries in mathematical content knowledge and mathematical…

No Worries about the Future: Young Adults' Perceptions of Risk and Opportunity while Attending Technical College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barabasch, Antje

2006-01-01

In this ever-changing economy, young adults must remain flexible and adaptable as they transition from school to work and plan their future life courses. It is difficult for today's youth to choose training programs which will guarantee them secure, long-term employment. As the future grows less predictable, greater uncertainty and risk are…

Impact of changes in weight, fat depth, and loin muscle depth on carcass yield and value and implications for selection and pricing of rams from terminal-sire sheep breeds

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Breeding objectives and selection indexes are necessary to support comprehensive genetic improvement programs. This study used off-test body weights (OTBW) or chilled carcass weights (CCW), ultrasonic measurements of fat depth (USFD, mm), and predicted ultrasound loin muscle depths (USLMD, mm) from ...

Perceptions of academic administrators of the effect of involvement in doctoral programs on faculty members' research and work-life balance.

PubMed

Smeltzer, Suzanne C; Sharts-Hopko, Nancy C; Cantrell, Mary Ann; Heverly, Mary Ann; Wise, Nancy; Jenkinson, Amanda

Support for research strongly predicts doctoral program faculty members' research productivity. Although academic administrators affect such support, their views of faculty members' use of support are unknown. We examined academic administrators' perceptions of institutional support and their perceptions of the effects of teaching doctoral students on faculty members' scholarship productivity and work-life balance. An online survey was completed by a random sample of 180 deans/directors of schools of nursing and doctoral programs directors. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, chi-square analysis, and analysis of variance. Deans and doctoral program directors viewed the level of productivity of program faculty as high to moderately high and unchanged since faculty started teaching doctoral students. Deans perceived better administrative research supports, productivity, and work-life balance of doctoral program faculty than did program directors. Findings indicate the need for greater administrative support for scholarship and mentoring given the changes in the composition of doctoral program faculty. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MRI-Based Computational Fluid Dynamics in Experimental Vascular Models: Toward the Development of an Approach for Prediction of Cardiovascular Changes During Prolonged Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spirka, T. A.; Myers, J. G.; Setser, R. M.; Halliburton, S. S.; White, R. D.; Chatzimavroudis, G. P.

2005-01-01

A priority of NASA is to identify and study possible risks to astronauts health during prolonged space missions [l]. The goal is to develop a procedure for a preflight evaluation of the cardiovascular system of an astronaut and to forecast how it will be affected during the mission. To predict these changes, a computational cardiovascular model must be constructed. Although physiology data can be used to make a general model, a more desirable subject-specific model requires anatomical, functional, and flow data from the specific astronaut. MRI has the unique advantage of providing images with all of the above information, including three-directional velocity data which can be used as boundary conditions in a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program [2,3]. MRI-based CFD is very promising for reproduction of the flow patterns of a specific subject and prediction of changes in the absence of gravity. The aim of this study was to test the feasibility of this approach by reconstructing the geometry of MRI-scanned arterial models and reproducing the MRI-measured velocities using CFD simulations on these geometries.

Psychosocial Predictors of Weight Loss among American Indian and Alaska Native Participants in a Diabetes Prevention Translational Project

PubMed Central

Dill, Edward J.; Manson, Spero M.; Jiang, Luohua; Pratte, Katherine A.; Gutilla, Margaret J.; Knepper, Stephanie L.; Beals, Janette; Roubideaux, Yvette; Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention Demonstration Project

2016-01-01

The association of psychosocial factors (psychological distress, coping skills, family support, trauma exposure, and spirituality) with initial weight and weight loss among American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) in a diabetes prevention translational project was investigated. Participants (n = 3,135) were confirmed as prediabetic and subsequently enrolled in the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention (SDPI-DP) demonstration project implemented at 36 Indian health care programs. Measures were obtained at baseline and after completing a 16-session educational curriculum focusing on weight loss through behavioral changes. At baseline, psychological distress and negative family support were linked to greater weight, whereas cultural spirituality was correlated with lower weight. Furthermore, psychological distress and negative family support predicted less weight loss, and positive family support predicted greater weight loss, over the course of the intervention. These bivariate relationships between psychosocial factors and weight remained statistically significant within a multivariate model, after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. Conversely, coping skills and trauma exposure were not significantly associated with baseline weight or change in weight. These findings demonstrate the influence of psychosocial factors on weight loss in AI/AN communities and have substantial implications for incorporating adjunctive intervention components. PMID:26649314

Advanced Software for Analysis of High-Speed Rolling-Element Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poplawski, J. V.; Rumbarger, J. H.; Peters, S. M.; Galatis, H.; Flower, R.

2003-01-01

COBRA-AHS is a package of advanced software for analysis of rigid or flexible shaft systems supported by rolling-element bearings operating at high speeds under complex mechanical and thermal loads. These loads can include centrifugal and thermal loads generated by motions of bearing components. COBRA-AHS offers several improvements over prior commercial bearing-analysis programs: It includes innovative probabilistic fatigue-life-estimating software that provides for computation of three-dimensional stress fields and incorporates stress-based (in contradistinction to prior load-based) mathematical models of fatigue life. It interacts automatically with the ANSYS finite-element code to generate finite-element models for estimating distributions of temperature and temperature-induced changes in dimensions in iterative thermal/dimensional analyses: thus, for example, it can be used to predict changes in clearances and thermal lockup. COBRA-AHS provides an improved graphical user interface that facilitates the iterative cycle of analysis and design by providing analysis results quickly in graphical form, enabling the user to control interactive runs without leaving the program environment, and facilitating transfer of plots and printed results for inclusion in design reports. Additional features include roller-edge stress prediction and influence of shaft and housing distortion on bearing performance.

Does a brief suicide prevention gatekeeper training program enhance observed skills?

PubMed Central

Cross, Wendi; Matthieu, Monica M.; Lezine, DeQuincy; Knox, Kerry L.

2010-01-01

Background Suicide is a significant public health problem worldwide that requires evidence-based prevention efforts. One approach to prevention is gatekeeper training. Gatekeeper training programs for community members have demonstrated positive changes in knowledge and attitudes about suicide. Changes in gatekeeper skills have not been well established. Aims To assess and predict the impact of a brief, gatekeeper training on community members’ observed skills. Methods Participants in a community gatekeeper training were employees at US universities. 50 participants were randomly selected for skills assessment and videotaped interacting with a standardized actor prior to and following training. Tapes were reliability rated for general and suicide-specific skills. Results Gatekeeper skills increased from pre- to posttest: 10% of participants met criteria for acceptable gatekeeper skills before training, while 54% met criteria after training. Pretraining variables did not predict increased skills. Limitations Results do not provide conclusions about the relationship between observed gatekeeper skills and actual use of those skills in the future. Conclusions Gatekeeper training enhances suicide-specific skills for the majority of participants. Other strategies, such as behavioral rehearsal, may be necessary to enhance skills in the remaining participants. PMID:20573609

Predictors of weight loss success. Exercise vs. dietary self-efficacy and treatment attendance.

PubMed

Byrne, Shannon; Barry, Danielle; Petry, Nancy M

2012-04-01

Pre-treatment diet and exercise self-efficacies can predict weight loss success. Changes in diet self-efficacy across treatment appear to be even stronger predictors than baseline levels, but research on changes in exercise self-efficacy is lacking. Using data from a pilot study evaluating tangible reinforcement for weight loss (N=30), we examined the impact of changes in diet and exercise self-efficacy on outcomes. Multiple regression analyses indicated that treatment attendance and changes in exercise self-efficacy during treatment were the strongest predictors of weight loss. Developing weight loss programs that foster the development of exercise self-efficacy may enhance participants' success. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Fan Noise Prediction System Development: Source/Radiation Field Coupling and Workstation Conversion for the Acoustic Radiation Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, H. D.

1993-01-01

The Acoustic Radiation Code (ARC) is a finite element program used on the IBM mainframe to predict far-field acoustic radiation from a turbofan engine inlet. In this report, requirements for developers of internal aerodynamic codes regarding use of their program output an input for the ARC are discussed. More specifically, the particular input needed from the Bolt, Beranek and Newman/Pratt and Whitney (turbofan source noise generation) Code (BBN/PWC) is described. In a separate analysis, a method of coupling the source and radiation models, that recognizes waves crossing the interface in both directions, has been derived. A preliminary version of the coupled code has been developed and used for initial evaluation of coupling issues. Results thus far have shown that reflection from the inlet is sufficient to indicate that full coupling of the source and radiation fields is needed for accurate noise predictions ' Also, for this contract, the ARC has been modified for use on the Sun and Silicon Graphics Iris UNIX workstations. Changes and additions involved in this effort are described in an appendix.

Thick thermal barrier coatings for diesel engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beardsley, M. Brad

1995-01-01

Caterpillar's approach to applying thick thermal barrier coatings (TTBC's) to diesel engine combustion chambers has been to use advanced modeling techniques to predict engine conditions and combine this information with fundamental property evaluation of TTBC systems to predict engine performance and TTBC stress states. Engine testing has been used to verify the predicted performance of the TTBC systems and provide information on failure mechanisms. The objective Caterpillar's program to date has been to advance the fundamental understanding of thick thermal barrier coating systems. Previous reviews of thermal barrier coating technology concluded that the current level of understanding of coating system behavior is inadequate and the lack of fundamental understanding may impeded the application of TTBC's to diesel engines. Areas of TTBC technology being examined in this program include powder characteristics and chemistry; bond coat composition; coating design, microstructure, and thickness as they affect properties, durability, and reliability; and TTBC 'aging' effects (microstructural and property changes) under diesel engine operating conditions. Methods to evaluate the reliability and durability of TTBC's have been developed that attempt to understand the fundamental strength of TTBC's for particular stress states.

Soil-transmitted helminthiasis: the relationship between prevalence and classes of intensity of infection.

PubMed

Montresor, Antonio; À Porta, Natacha; Albonico, Marco; Gabrielli, Albis Francesco; Jankovic, Dina; Fitzpatrick, Christopher; Vercruysse, Jozef; Levecke, Bruno

2015-04-01

Recently, WHO has developed a predictive model to evaluate the impact of preventive chemotherapy programs to control the morbidity of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). To make predictions, this model needs baseline information about the proportion of infections classified as low, moderate and high intensity, for each of the three STH species. However, epidemiological data available are often limited to prevalence estimates. We reanalyzed available data from 19 surveys in 10 countries and parameterized the relationship between prevalence of STH infections and the proportion of moderate and heavy intensity infections. The equations derived allow feeding the WHO model with estimates of the proportion of the different classes of infection intensity when only prevalence data is available. The prediction capacities of the STH model using the equations developed in the present study, should be tested by comparing it with the changes on STH epidemiological data observed in control programs operating for several years. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

fMRI Reactivity to High-Calorie Food Pictures Predicts Short- and Long-Term Outcome in a Weight-Loss Program

PubMed Central

Murdaugh, Donna L.; Cox, James E.; Cook, Edwin W.; Weller, Rosalyn E.

2011-01-01

Behavioral studies have suggested that food cues have stronger motivating effects in obese than in normal-weight individuals, which may be a risk factor underlying obesity. Previous cross-sectional neuroimaging studies have suggested that this difference is mediated by increased reactivity to food cues in parts of the reward system in obese individuals. To date, however, only a few prospective neuroimaging studies have been conducted to examine whether individual differences in brain activation elicited by food cues can predict differences in weight change. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate activation in reward-system as well as other brain regions in response to viewing high-calorie food vs. control pictures in 25 obese individuals before and after a 12-week psychosocial weight-loss treatment and at 9-mo follow-up. In those obese individuals who were least successful in losing weight during the treatment, we found greater pre-treatment activation to high-calorie food vs. control pictures in brain regions implicated in reward-system processes, such as the nucleus accumbens, anterior cingulate, and insula. We found similar correlations with weight loss in brain regions implicated by other studies in vision and attention, such as superior occipital cortex, inferior and superior parietal lobule, and prefrontal cortex. Furthermore, less successful weight maintenance at 9-mo follow-up was predicted by greater post-treatment activation in such brain regions as insula, ventral tegmental area, putamen, and fusiform gyrus. In summary, we found that greater activation in brain regions mediating motivational and attentional salience of food cues in obese individuals at the start of a weight-loss program was predictive of less success in the program and that such activation following the program predicted poorer weight control over a 9-mo follow-up period. PMID:22332246

Shuttle TPS thermal performance and analysis methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neuenschwander, W. E.; Mcbride, D. U.; Armour, G. A.

1983-01-01

Thermal performance of the thermal protection system was approximately as predicted. The only extensive anomalies were filler bar scorching and over-predictions in the high Delta p gap heating regions of the orbiter. A technique to predict filler bar scorching has been developed that can aid in defining a solution. Improvement in high Delta p gap heating methodology is still under study. Minor anomalies were also examined for improvements in modeling techniques and prediction capabilities. These include improved definition of low Delta p gap heating, an analytical model for inner mode line convection heat transfer, better modeling of structure, and inclusion of sneak heating. The limited number of problems related to penetration items that presented themselves during orbital flight tests were resolved expeditiously, and designs were changed and proved successful within the time frame of that program.

The Strengthening Families Program 10-14: influence on parent and youth problem-solving skill.

PubMed

Semeniuk, Y; Brown, R L; Riesch, S K; Zywicki, M; Hopper, J; Henriques, J B

2010-06-01

The aim of this paper is to report the results of a preliminary examination of the efficacy of the Strengthening Families Program (SFP) 10-14 in improving parent and youth problem-solving skill. The Hypotheses in this paper include: (1) youth and parents who participated in SFP would have lower mean scores immediately (T2) and 6 months (T3) post intervention on indicators of hostile and negative problem-solving strategies; (2) higher mean scores on positive problem-solving strategies; and (3) youth who participated in SFP would have higher mean scores at T2 and at T3 on indicators of individual problem solving and problem-solving efficacy than youth in the comparison group. The dyads were recruited from elementary schools that had been stratified for race and assigned randomly to intervention or comparison conditions. Mean age of youth was 11 years (SD = 1.04). Fifty-seven dyads (34-intervention&23-control) were videotaped discussing a frequently occurring problem. The videotapes were analysed using the Iowa Family Interaction Rating Scale (IFIRS) and data were analysed using Dyadic Assessment Intervention Model. Most mean scores on the IFIRS did not change. One score changed as predicted: youth hostility decreased at T3. Two scores changed contrary to prediction: parent hostility increased T3 and parent positive problem solving decreased at T2. SFP demonstrated questionable efficacy for problem-solving skill in this study.

Changes in smoke alarm coverage following two fire department home visiting programs: what predicts success?

PubMed

Gielen, Andrea C; Perry, Elise C; Shields, Wendy C; McDonald, Eileen; Frattaroli, Shannon; Jones, Vanya

2014-12-01

Door-to-door canvassing and installation of smoke alarms have been found to be effective at increasing the number of homes protected. This analysis reports on how smoke alarm coverage changes six months after a home visiting program in a large urban sample, and how this change varies by characteristics of the residents and characteristics of the services delivered during the home visit. Fire department Standard and Enhanced home visiting programs were compared. During the home visit, fire fighters installed lithium battery smoke alarms. Residents in the Enhanced program received tailored education about fire safety. Six months after the home visit, participating residences were visited to complete a follow-up survey and to have the installed alarms checked. 81% of the 672 homes that had a working smoke alarm on every level of the home at the end of the home visit remained safe at follow-up, and 87% of the residents found the home visit was very useful, and these rates did not differ between the Enhanced and Standard programs. The degree to which firefighters delivered their services varied, although households in which the resident's engagement with the fire department team was rated as excellent were 3.96 times as likely to be safe at follow-up compared to those with poor or fair resident engagement (p=0.03). There is a need to better understand how to maximize the time spent with residents during smoke alarm home visiting programs. This study helps with the development of methods needed for implementing and evaluating such programs in real-world settings.

Cognitive Reserve in Dementia: Implications for Cognitive Training

PubMed Central

Mondini, Sara; Madella, Ileana; Zangrossi, Andrea; Bigolin, Angela; Tomasi, Claudia; Michieletto, Marta; Villani, Daniele; Di Giovanni, Giuseppina; Mapelli, Daniela

2016-01-01

Cognitive reserve (CR) is a potential mechanism to cope with brain damage. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of CR on a cognitive training (CT) in a group of patients with dementia. Eighty six participants with mild to moderate dementia were identified by their level of CR quantified by the CR Index questionnaire (CRIq) and underwent a cycle of CT. A global measure of cognition mini mental state examination (MMSE) was obtained before (T0) and after (T1) the training. Multiple linear regression analyses highlighted CR as a significant factor able to predict changes in cognitive performance after the CT. In particular, patients with lower CR benefited from a CT program more than those with high CR. These data show that CR can modulate the outcome of a CT program and that it should be considered as a predictive factor of neuropsychological rehabilitation training efficacy in people with dementia. PMID:27199734

Thermal Ablation Modeling for Silicate Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yih-Kanq

2016-01-01

A thermal ablation model for silicates is proposed. The model includes the mass losses through the balance between evaporation and condensation, and through the moving molten layer driven by surface shear force and pressure gradient. This model can be applied in ablation simulations of the meteoroid or glassy Thermal Protection Systems for spacecraft. Time-dependent axi-symmetric computations are performed by coupling the fluid dynamics code, Data-Parallel Line Relaxation program, with the material response code, Two-dimensional Implicit Thermal Ablation simulation program, to predict the mass lost rates and shape change. For model validation, the surface recession of fused amorphous quartz rod is computed, and the recession predictions reasonably agree with available data. The present parametric studies for two groups of meteoroid earth entry conditions indicate that the mass loss through moving molten layer is negligibly small for heat-flux conditions at around 1 MW/cm(exp. 2).

Faster Trees: Strategies for Accelerated Training and Prediction of Random Forests for Classification of Polsar Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänsch, Ronny; Hellwich, Olaf

2018-04-01

Random Forests have continuously proven to be one of the most accurate, robust, as well as efficient methods for the supervised classification of images in general and polarimetric synthetic aperture radar data in particular. While the majority of previous work focus on improving classification accuracy, we aim for accelerating the training of the classifier as well as its usage during prediction while maintaining its accuracy. Unlike other approaches we mainly consider algorithmic changes to stay as much as possible independent of platform and programming language. The final model achieves an approximately 60 times faster training and a 500 times faster prediction, while the accuracy is only marginally decreased by roughly 1 %.

Plasma myostatin is only a weak predictor for weight maintenance in obese adults.

PubMed

Tsioga, M N; Oikonomou, D; Vittas, S; Kalscheuer, H; Roeder, E; Wintgens, K F; Nawroth, P P; Wolfrum, C; Rudofsky, G

2015-09-01

Predicting an individual's success in a non-surgical weight loss approach is a demanding need since obesity is becoming an epidemic burden. A possible predictive marker is myostatin, a member of the transforming growth factor b superfamily, which has been shown to be an important regulator of muscle homeostasis. In the present study, we analyzed myostatin as a marker to predict weight loss of patients that participated in a 2 phased weight reduction program, comprising a weight loss period of 12 weeks and a weight stabilization period of 40 weeks. Therefore, 62 obese individuals with a mean BMI of 40.6 kg/m(2) were included. Plasma myostatin was measured with ELISA at the beginning (T0), after weight loss (T1) and at the end of the program (T2). Although significant weight loss of -23.9±14.9 kg was achieved, myostatin did not change significantly during the program (T0>T1: p=0.46; T1>T2: p=0.70; T0>T2: p=0.57). Myostatin at baseline did neither negatively correlate with the achieved weight loss in the weight reduction phase (T0>T1: r=0.27, p=0.16) nor with weight loss during the whole program (T0>T2: r=0.20, p=0.29). Only a minor correlation with myostatin levels after weight loss with weight regain during maintenance period was detected. (T1>T2: r=-0.37, p=0.05). Plasma myostatin might be suitable in predicting weight regain after marked weight loss, but no association with weight loss was observed in patients undergoing a non-surgical weight loss program. Therefore, myostatin does not seem to be a predictor for success in non-surgical weight loss approaches. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Fish habitat regression under water scarcity scenarios in the Douro River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, Teresa

2015-04-01

Climate change will predictably alter hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goals of this study are to identify the stream reaches that will undergo more pronounced flow reduction under different climate change scenarios and to assess which fish species will be more affected by the consequent regression of suitable habitats. The interplay between changes in flow and temperature and the presence of transversal artificial obstacles (dams and weirs) is analysed. The results will contribute to river management and impact mitigation actions under climate change. This study was carried out in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of 29 Hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were modelled using a water modelling system (MOHID), based on meteorological data recorded monthly between 2008 and 2014. The same variables were modelled considering future climate change scenarios. The resulting variables were used in empirical habitat models of a set of key species (brown trout Salmo trutta fario, barbell Barbus bocagei, and nase Pseudochondrostoma duriense) using boosted regression trees. The stream segments between tributaries were used as spatial sampling units. Models were developed for the whole Douro basin using 401 fish sampling sites, although the modelled probabilities of species occurrence for each stream segment were predicted only for the Tâmega catchment. These probabilities of occurrence were used to classify stream segments into suitable and unsuitable habitat for each fish species, considering the future climate change scenario. The stream reaches that were predicted to undergo longer flow interruptions were identified and crossed with the resulting predictive maps of habitat suitability to compute the total area of habitat loss per species. Among the target species, the brown trout was predicted to be the most sensitive to habitat regression due to the interplay of flow reduction, increase of temperature and transversal barriers. This species is therefore a good indicator of climate change impacts in rivers and therefore we recommend using this species as a target of monitoring programs to be implemented in the context of climate change adaptation strategies.

In-Flight Lower Body Negative Pressure - Skylab Experiment M092

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

This chart details Skylab's In-Flight Lower Body Negative Pressure experiment facility, a medical evaluation designed to monitor changes in astronauts' cardiovascular systems during long-duration space missions. This experiment collected in-flight data for predicting the impairment of physical capacity and the degree of orthostatic intolerance to be expected upon return to Earth. Data to be collected were blood pressure, heart rate, body temperature, vectorcardiogram, lower body negative pressure, leg volume changes, and body mass. The Marshall Space Flight Center had program management responsibility for the development of Skylab hardware and experiments.

PREDICTS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Hanying

2007-01-01

PREDICTS is a computer program that predicts the frequencies, as functions of time, of signals to be received by a radio science receiver in this case, a special-purpose digital receiver dedicated to analysis of signals received by an antenna in NASA s Deep Space Network (DSN). Unlike other software used in the DSN, PREDICTS does not use interpolation early in the calculations; as a consequence, PREDICTS is more precise and more stable. The precision afforded by the other DSN software is sufficient for telemetry; the greater precision afforded by PREDICTS is needed for radio-science experiments. In addition to frequencies as a function of time, PREDICTS yields the rates of change and interpolation coefficients for the frequencies and the beginning and ending times of reception, transmission, and occultation. PREDICTS is applicable to S-, X-, and Ka-band signals and can accommodate the following link configurations: (1) one-way (spacecraft to ground), (2) two-way (from a ground station to a spacecraft to the same ground station), and (3) three-way (from a ground transmitting station to a spacecraft to a different ground receiving station).

Prediction of energy balance and utilization for solar electric cars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

2017-11-01

Solar irradiation and ambient temperature are characterized by region, season and time-domain, which directly affects the performance of solar energy based car system. In this paper, the model of solar electric cars used was based in Xi’an. Firstly, the meteorological data are modelled to simulate the change of solar irradiation and ambient temperature, and then the temperature change of solar cell is calculated using the thermal equilibrium relation. The above work is based on the driving resistance and solar cell power generation model, which is simulated under the varying radiation conditions in a day. The daily power generation and solar electric car cruise mileage can be predicted by calculating solar cell efficiency and power. The above theoretical approach and research results can be used in the future for solar electric car program design and optimization for the future developments.

The X-15/HL-20 operations support comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, W. Douglas

1993-01-01

During the 1960's, the United States X-15 rocket-plane research program successfully demonstrated the ability to support a reusable vehicle operating in a near-space environment. The similarity of the proposed HL-20 lifting body concept in general size, weight, and subsystem composition to that of the X-15 provided an opportunity for a comparison of the predicted support manpower and turnaround times with those experienced in the X-15 program. Information was drawn from both reports and discussions with X-15 program personnel to develop comparative operations and support data. Based on the assumption of comparability between the two systems, the predicted staffing levels, skill mix, and refurbishment times of an operational HL-20 appear to be similar to those experienced by the X-15 for ground support. However, safety, environmental, and support requirements have changed such that the HL-20 will face a different operating environment than existed at Edwards during the 1950's and 1960's. Today's operational standards may impose additional requirements on the HL-20 that will add to the maintenance and support burden estimate based on the X-15 analogy.

Predictors of Intervention Success in a Sports-Based Program for Adolescents at Risk of Juvenile Delinquency

PubMed Central

Spruit, Anouk; van der Put, Claudia; van Vugt, Eveline; Stams, Geert Jan

2017-01-01

To prevent juvenile delinquency, there is growing interest in the use of sports-based interventions. To date, there is little empirical research that provides insights into for whom, how, and when sports-based crime prevention programs are most effective. Therefore, the current study assessed which youth, coach, and context factors were predictive of change in risk factors and protective factors for delinquency in a sports-based crime prevention program for at-risk adolescents. Participants (N = 155) and their teachers filled in questionnaires about risk and protective factors for delinquency at the start of the intervention and 13 months later. In addition, the coaches and participants filled in questionnaires about the predictors of intervention success. The youths showed significant improvements over the course of the intervention. Various youth, coach, and context factors (e.g., the type of education of youth and the sociomoral climate at the sports club) were associated to change in the outcome variables. PMID:28741394

Predictors of Intervention Success in a Sports-Based Program for Adolescents at Risk of Juvenile Delinquency.

PubMed

Spruit, Anouk; van der Put, Claudia; van Vugt, Eveline; Stams, Geert Jan

2018-05-01

To prevent juvenile delinquency, there is growing interest in the use of sports-based interventions. To date, there is little empirical research that provides insights into for whom, how, and when sports-based crime prevention programs are most effective. Therefore, the current study assessed which youth, coach, and context factors were predictive of change in risk factors and protective factors for delinquency in a sports-based crime prevention program for at-risk adolescents. Participants ( N = 155) and their teachers filled in questionnaires about risk and protective factors for delinquency at the start of the intervention and 13 months later. In addition, the coaches and participants filled in questionnaires about the predictors of intervention success. The youths showed significant improvements over the course of the intervention. Various youth, coach, and context factors (e.g., the type of education of youth and the sociomoral climate at the sports club) were associated to change in the outcome variables.

Global changes: Impacts on habitability. A scientific basis for assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goody, R.

1982-01-01

The feasibility of a major NASA research initiative to document, to understand, and if possible, to predict long-term (5 to 50 years) global changes that can affect the habitability of the Earth is addressed. The major factor contributing to change is human activity. The program discussed involves studies of the atmosphere, oceans, land, the cryosphere, and the biosphere. On decadal time scales, these regimes and the cycles of physical and chemical entities through them are coupled into a single interlocking system. Some part of this system can be studied in a straightforward manner (the atmosphere) and some with great difficulty (the biosphere).

Computational Modeling and Simulation of Developmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Developmental and Reproductive Toxicity (DART) testing is important for assessing the potential consequences of drug and chemical exposure on human health and well-being. Complexity of pregnancy and the reproductive cycle makes DART testing challenging and costly for traditional (animal-based) methods. A compendium of in vitro data from ToxCast/Tox21 high-throughput screening (HTS) programs is available for predictive toxicology. ‘Predictive DART’ will require an integrative strategy that mobilizes HTS data into in silico models that capture the relevant embryology. This lecture addresses progress on EPA's 'virtual embryo'. The question of how tissues and organs are shaped during development is crucial for understanding (and predicting) human birth defects. While ToxCast HTS data may predict developmental toxicity with reasonable accuracy, mechanistic models are still necessary to capture the relevant biology. Subtle microscopic changes induced chemically may amplify to an adverse outcome but coarse changes may override lesion propagation in any complex adaptive system. Modeling system dynamics in a developing tissue is a multiscale problem that challenges our ability to predict toxicity from in vitro profiling data (ToxCast/Tox21). (DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the US EPA). This was an invited seminar presentation to the National Institute for Public H

Directions of the US Geological Survey Landslide Hazards Reduction Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.

1993-01-01

The US Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Hazards Reduction Program includes studies of landslide process and prediction, landslide susceptibility and risk mapping, landslide recurrence and slope evolution, and research application and technology transfer. Studies of landslide processes have been recently conducted in Virginia, Utah, California, Alaska, and Hawaii, Landslide susceptibility maps provide a very important tool for landslide hazard reduction. The effects of engineering-geologic characteristics of rocks, seismic activity, short and long-term climatic change on landslide recurrence are under study. Detailed measurement of movement and deformation has begun on some active landslides. -from Author

Computer model for refinery operations with emphasis on jet fuel production. Volume 2: Data and technical bases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunbar, D. N.; Tunnah, B. G.

1978-01-01

The FORTRAN computing program predicts the flow streams and material, energy, and economic balances of a typical petroleum refinery, with particular emphasis on production of aviation turbine fuel of varying end point and hydrogen content specifications. The program has provision for shale oil and coal oil in addition to petroleum crudes. A case study feature permits dependent cases to be run for parametric or optimization studies by input of only the variables which are changed from the base case. The report has sufficient detail for the information of most readers.

Organizational Changes to Thyroid Regulation in Alligator mississippiensis: Evidence for Predictive Adaptive Responses

PubMed Central

Boggs, Ashley S. P.; Lowers, Russell H.; Cloy-McCoy, Jessica A.; Guillette, Louis J.

2013-01-01

During embryonic development, organisms are sensitive to changes in thyroid hormone signaling which can reset the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis. It has been hypothesized that this developmental programming is a ‘predictive adaptive response’, a physiological adjustment in accordance with the embryonic environment that will best aid an individual's survival in a similar postnatal environment. When the embryonic environment is a poor predictor of the external environment, the developmental changes are no longer adaptive and can result in disease states. We predicted that endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and environmentally-based iodide imbalance could lead to developmental changes to the thyroid axis. To explore whether iodide or EDCs could alter developmental programming, we collected American alligator eggs from an estuarine environment with high iodide availability and elevated thyroid-specific EDCs, a freshwater environment contaminated with elevated agriculturally derived EDCs, and a reference freshwater environment. We then incubated them under identical conditions. We examined plasma thyroxine and triiodothyronine concentrations, thyroid gland histology, plasma inorganic iodide, and somatic growth at one week (before external nutrition) and ten months after hatching (on identical diets). Neonates from the estuarine environment were thyrotoxic, expressing follicular cell hyperplasia (p = 0.01) and elevated plasma triiodothyronine concentrations (p = 0.0006) closely tied to plasma iodide concentrations (p = 0.003). Neonates from the freshwater contaminated site were hypothyroid, expressing thyroid follicular cell hyperplasia (p = 0.01) and depressed plasma thyroxine concentrations (p = 0.008). Following a ten month growth period under identical conditions, thyroid histology (hyperplasia p = 0.04; colloid depletion p = 0.01) and somatic growth (body mass p<0.0001; length p = 0.02) remained altered among the contaminated sites. This work supports the hypothesis that embryonic EDC exposure or iodide imbalance could induce adult metabolic disease states, thereby stressing the need to consider the multiple environmental variables present during development. PMID:23383213

A "Cap" on Medicaid: How Block Grants, Per Capita Caps, and Capped Allotments Might Fundamentally Change the Safety Net.

PubMed

Mager-Mardeusz, Haleigh; Lenz, Cosima; Kominski, Gerald F

2017-04-01

Changing the Medicaid program is a top priority for the Republican party. Common themes from GOP proposals include converting Medicaid from a jointly financed entitlement benefit to a form of capped federal financing. While proponents of this reform argue that it would provide greater flexibility and a more predictable budget for state governments, serious consequences would likely result for Medicaid enrollees and state governments. Under all three scenarios promoted by Republicans--block grants, capped allotments, and per capita caps—most states would face increased costs. For all three scenarios, the capped nature of the funding guarantees that the real value of funds would decrease in future years relative to what would be expected from growth under the current program. Although the federal government would undoubtedly realize savings from all three scenarios, the impact might lead states to reduce benefits and services, create waiting lists, impose cost-sharing on a traditionally low-income enrollee population, or impose other obstacles to coverage. Nationally, as many as 20.5 million Americans stand to lose coverage under the proposed Medicaid changes. In California, up to 6 million people could lose coverage if changes to the Medicaid program were coupled with the repeal of coverage for the expansion population.

Prevention effects on trajectories of African American adolescents' exposure to interparental conflict and depressive symptoms.

PubMed

Barton, Allen W; Beach, Steven R H; Kogan, Steven M; Stanley, Scott M; Fincham, Frank D; Hurt, Tera R; Brody, Gene H

2015-04-01

The present study investigates the trajectory of children's exposure to interparental conflict during adolescence, its effects on adolescents' psychological adjustment, as well as the ability of a family-centered prevention program to alter this trajectory. A total of 331 African American couples with an adolescent or preadolescent child participated in a randomized control trial of the Promoting Strong African American Families program, a newly developed program targeting couple and cocaregiving processes. Using a multi-informant, latent growth curve approach, child exposure to interparental conflict during adolescence was found to be stable over a period of 2 years among families in the control group, but significantly declined among families in the treatment condition. Rates of change were significantly different between intervention and control groups based on parents' report of youth exposure to interparental conflict, but not for child's report. Structural equation models found trajectory parameters of interparental conflict predicted changes in adolescent depressive symptoms, with increasing rates of changes in conflict associated with increases in adolescent internalizing symptoms over the 2-year duration of the study. Finally, a significant indirect effect was identified linking treatment, changes in parents' reports of child exposure to interparental conflict, and adolescent depressive symptoms. The implications for research and intervention are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Prevention effects on trajectories of African American adolescents' exposure to interparental conflict and depressive symptoms

PubMed Central

Barton, Allen W.; Beach, Steven R. H.; Kogan, Steven M.; Stanley, Scott M.; Fincham, Frank D.; Hurt, Tera R.; Brody, Gene H.

2015-01-01

The present study investigates the trajectory of children's exposure to interparental conflict during adolescence, its effects on adolescents' psychological adjustment, as well as the ability of a family-centered prevention program to alter this trajectory. A total of 331 African American couples with an adolescent or pre-adolescent child participated in a randomized control trial of the Promoting Strong African American Families (ProSAAF) program, a newly-developed program targeting couple and co-caregiving processes. Using a multi-informant, latent growth curve approach, child exposure to interparental conflict during adolescence was found to be stable over a period of two years among families in the control group, but significantly declined among families in the treatment condition. Rates of change were significantly different between intervention and control groups based on parents' report of youth exposure to interparental conflict, but not for child's report. Structural equation models found trajectory parameters of interparental conflict predicted changes in adolescent depressive symptoms, with increasing rates of changes in conflict associated with increases in adolescent internalizing symptoms over the 2-year duration of the study. Finally, a significant indirect effect was identified linking treatment, changes in parents' reports of child exposure to interparental conflict, and adolescent depressive symptoms. The implications for research and intervention are discussed. PMID:25844492

Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Stodola, K.W.; Cooper, R.J.

2011-01-01

The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

A gene expression biomarker accurately predicts estrogen ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EPA’s vision for the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP) in the 21st Century (EDSP21) includes utilization of high-throughput screening (HTS) assays coupled with computational modeling to prioritize chemicals with the goal of eventually replacing current Tier 1 screening tests. The ToxCast program currently includes 18 HTS in vitro assays that evaluate the ability of chemicals to modulate estrogen receptor α (ERα), an important endocrine target. We propose microarray-based gene expression profiling as a complementary approach to predict ERα modulation and have developed computational methods to identify ERα modulators in an existing database of whole-genome microarray data. The ERα biomarker consisted of 46 ERα-regulated genes with consistent expression patterns across 7 known ER agonists and 3 known ER antagonists. The biomarker was evaluated as a predictive tool using the fold-change rank-based Running Fisher algorithm by comparison to annotated gene expression data sets from experiments in MCF-7 cells. Using 141 comparisons from chemical- and hormone-treated cells, the biomarker gave a balanced accuracy for prediction of ERα activation or suppression of 94% or 93%, respectively. The biomarker was able to correctly classify 18 out of 21 (86%) OECD ER reference chemicals including “very weak” agonists and replicated predictions based on 18 in vitro ER-associated HTS assays. For 114 chemicals present in both the HTS data and the MCF-7 c

Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study.

PubMed

Escarela, Gabriel

2012-06-01

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

Impact of predictive model-directed end-of-life counseling for Medicare beneficiaries.

PubMed

Hamlet, Karen S; Hobgood, Adam; Hamar, Guy Brent; Dobbs, Angela C; Rula, Elizabeth Y; Pope, James E

2010-05-01

To validate a predictive model for identifying Medicare beneficiaries who need end-of-life care planning and to determine the impact on cost and hospice care of a telephonic counseling program utilizing this predictive model in 2 Medicare Health Support (MHS) pilots. Secondary analysis of data from 2 MHS pilot programs that used a randomized controlled design. A predictive model was developed using intervention group data (N = 43,497) to identify individuals at greatest risk of death. Model output guided delivery of a telephonic intervention designed to support educated end-of-life decisions and improve end-of-life provisions. Control group participants received usual care. As a primary outcome, Medicare costs in the last 6 months of life were compared between intervention group decedents (n = 3112) and control group decedents (n = 1630). Hospice admission rates and duration of hospice care were compared as secondary measures. The predictive model was highly accurate, and more than 80% of intervention group decedents were contacted during the 12 months before death. Average Medicare costs were $1913 lower for intervention group decedents compared with control group decedents in the last 6 months of life (P = .05), for a total savings of $5.95 million. There were no significant changes in hospice admissions or mean duration of hospice care. Telephonic end-of-life counseling provided as an ancillary Medicare service, guided by a predictive model, can reach a majority of individuals needing support and can reduce costs by facilitating voluntary election of less intensive care.

Is sense of coherence a predictor of lifestyle changes in subjects at risk for type 2 diabetes?

PubMed

Nilsen, V; Bakke, P S; Rohde, G; Gallefoss, F

2015-02-01

To determine whether the sense of coherence (SOC) could predict the outcome of an 18-month lifestyle intervention program for subjects at risk of type 2 diabetes. Subjects at high risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus were recruited to a low-intensity lifestyle intervention program by their general practitioners. Weight reduction ≥ 5% and improvement in exercise capacity of ≥ 10% from baseline to follow-up indicated a clinically significant lifestyle change. SOC was measured using the 13-item SOC questionnaire. The study involved 213 subjects with a mean body mass index of 37 (SD ± 6). Complete follow-up data were obtained for 131 (62%). Twenty-six participants had clinically significant lifestyle changes. There was a 21% increase in the odds of a clinically significant lifestyle change for each point increase in the baseline SOC score (odds ratio = 1.21; confidence interval = 1.11-1.32). The success rate was 14 times higher in the highest SOC score tertile group compared with the lowest. High SOC scores were good predictors of successful lifestyle change in subjects at risk of type 2 diabetes. SOC-13 can be used in daily practice to increase clinical awareness on the impact of mastery on the outcome of life-style intervention programs. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

High Speed Research Noise Prediction Code (HSRNOISE) User's and Theoretical Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golub, Robert (Technical Monitor); Rawls, John W., Jr.; Yeager, Jessie C.

2004-01-01

This report describes a computer program, HSRNOISE, that predicts noise levels for a supersonic aircraft powered by mixed flow turbofan engines with rectangular mixer-ejector nozzles. It fully documents the noise prediction algorithms, provides instructions for executing the HSRNOISE code, and provides predicted noise levels for the High Speed Research (HSR) program Technology Concept (TC) aircraft. The component source noise prediction algorithms were developed jointly by Boeing, General Electric Aircraft Engines (GEAE), NASA and Pratt & Whitney during the course of the NASA HSR program. Modern Technologies Corporation developed an alternative mixer ejector jet noise prediction method under contract to GEAE that has also been incorporated into the HSRNOISE prediction code. Algorithms for determining propagation effects and calculating noise metrics were taken from the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program.

Developing and Applying Control Charts to Detect Change Water Chemistry Parameters Measured in the Athabasca River Near the Oil Sands: A Tool for Surveillance Monitoring.

PubMed

Arciszewski, Tim J; Hazewinkel, Rod R; Munkittrick, Kelly R; Kilgour, Bruce W

2018-05-10

Control charting is a simple technique to identify change and is well-suited for use in water quality programs. Control charts accounting for co-variation associated with discharge and time were used to explore example and representative variables routinely measured in the Athabasca River near the oil sands area for indications of change, including 5 major ions (chloride, sodium, sulphate, calcium, magnesium), 5 total metals (aluminum, iron, thallium, molybdenum, vanadium) and total suspended solids (TSS). Regression equations developed from reference data (1988-2009) were used to predict observations and calculate residuals from later test observations (2010-2016). Evidence of change was sought in the deviation of residual errors from the test period compared to the patterns expected and defined from probability distributions of the reference residuals using the Odds Ratio. In most cases, the patterns in test residuals were not statistically different from those expected from the reference period, especially when data was examined annually. However, some differences were apparent and more differences were apparent as data accumulated and was analysed over time. In sum, the analyses suggest higher concentrations than predicted in most major ions, but the source of the changes is uncertain. In contrast, most metals were lower than expected and may be related to changing deposition patterns of materials or weathering of minerals during construction activities of the 2000's which influence the reference data used. The analyses also suggest alternative approaches may be necessary to understand change in some variables. Despite this, the results support the use of control charts to detect changes in water chemistry parameters and the value of the tool in surveillance phases of long-term and adaptive monitoring programs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Six degree of freedom FORTRAN program, ASTP docking dynamics, users guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mount, G. O., Jr.; Mikhalkin, B.

1974-01-01

The digital program ASTP Docking Dynamics as outlined is intended to aid the engineer using the program to determine the docking system loads and attendant vehicular motion resulting from docking two vehicles that have an androgynous, six-hydraulic-attenuator, guide ring, docking interface similar to that designed for the Apollo/Soyuz Test Project (ASTP). This program is set up to analyze two different vehicle combinations: the Apollo CSM docking to Soyuz and the shuttle orbiter docking to another orbiter. The subroutine modifies the vehicle control systems to describe one or the other vehicle combinations; the rest of the vehicle characteristics are changed by input data. To date, the program has been used to predict and correlate ASTP docking loads and performance with docking test program results from dynamic testing. The program modified for use on IBM 360 computers. Parts of the original docking system equations in the areas of hydraulic damping and capture latches are modified to better describe the detail design of the ASTP docking system.

PSA: A program to streamline orbit determination for launch support operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Legerton, V. N.; Mottinger, N. A.

1988-01-01

An interactive, menu driven computer program was written to streamline the orbit determination process during the critical launch support phase of a mission. Residing on a virtual memory minicomputer, this program retains the quantities in-core needed to obtain a least squares estimate of the spacecraft trajectory with interactive displays to assist in rapid radio metric data evaluation. Menu-driven displays allow real time filter and data strategy development. Graphical and tabular displays can be sent to a laser printer for analysis without exiting the program. Products generated by this program feed back to the main orbit determination program in order to further refine the estimate of the trajectory. The final estimate provides a spacecraft ephemeris which is transmitted to the mission control center and used for antenna pointing and frequency predict generation by the Deep Space Network. The development and implementation process of this program differs from that used for most other navigation software by allowing the users to check important operating features during development and have changes made as needed.

Feasibility of an acceptance and commitment therapy adjunctive web-based program for counseling centers.

PubMed

Levin, Michael E; Pistorello, Jacqueline; Hayes, Steven C; Seeley, John R; Levin, Crissa

2015-07-01

Web-based adjunctive tools provide a promising method for addressing the challenges college counseling centers face in meeting the mental health needs of students. The current study tested an initial adjunctive prototype based on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) in a pre-post open trial with 30 counselors and 82 student clients across 4 counseling centers. Results indicated high ratings of program satisfaction and usability with counselors and students. The majority of students completed at least part of the program. Significant improvements were found across almost all outcome and ACT process measures with student clients. Improvements in student outcomes were predicted by both changes in psychological inflexibility and how often counselors discussed the program with students. Results are discussed in relation to support for and future development of a flexible, adjunctive ACT program for counseling centers. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Theoretical technique for predicting the cumulative impact of iron and manganese oxidation in streams receiving discharge from coal mines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bobay, Keith E.

1986-01-01

Two U.S. Geological Survey computer programs are modified and linked to predict the cumulative impact of iron and manganese oxidation in coal-mine discharge water on the dissolved chemical quality of a receiving stream. The coupled programs calculate the changes in dissolved iron, dissolved manganese, and dissolved oxygen concentrations; alkalinity; and, pH of surface water downstream from the point of discharge. First, the one-dimensional, stead-state stream, water quality program uses a dissolved oxygen model to calculate the changes in concentration of elements as a function of the chemical reaction rates and time-of-travel. Second, a program (PHREEQE) combining pH, reduction-oxidation potential, and equilibrium equations uses an aqueous-ion association model to determine the saturation indices and to calculate pH; it then mixes the discharge with a receiving stream. The kinetic processes of the first program dominate the system, whereas the equilibrium thermodynamics of the second define the limits of the reactions. A comprehensive test of the technique was not possible because a complete set of data was unavailable. However, the cumulative impact of representative discharges from several coal mines on stream quality in a small watershed in southwestern Indiana was simulated to illustrate the operation of the technique and to determine its sensitivity to changes in physical, chemical, and kinetic parameters. Mine discharges averaged 2 cu ft/sec, with a pH of 6.0, and concentrations of 7.0 mg/L dissolved iron, 4.0 mg/L dissolved manganese, and 8.08 mg/L dissolved oxygen. The receiving stream discharge was 2 cu ft/sec, with a pH of 7.0, and concentrations of 0.1 mg/L dissolved iron, 0.1 mg/L dissolved manganese, and 8.70 mg/L dissolved oxygen. Results of the simulations indicated the following cumulative impact on the receiving stream from five discharges as compared with the effect from one discharge: 0.30 unit decrease in pH, 1.82 mg/L increase in dissolved iron, 1.50 mg/L increase in dissolved manganese, and 0.24 mg/L decrease in dissolved oxygen concentration.

Propeller aircraft interior noise model utilization study and validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pope, L. D.

1984-01-01

Utilization and validation of a computer program designed for aircraft interior noise prediction is considered. The program, entitled PAIN (an acronym for Propeller Aircraft Interior Noise), permits (in theory) predictions of sound levels inside propeller driven aircraft arising from sidewall transmission. The objective of the work reported was to determine the practicality of making predictions for various airplanes and the extent of the program's capabilities. The ultimate purpose was to discern the quality of predictions for tonal levels inside an aircraft occurring at the propeller blade passage frequency and its harmonics. The effort involved three tasks: (1) program validation through comparisons of predictions with scale-model test results; (2) development of utilization schemes for large (full scale) fuselages; and (3) validation through comparisons of predictions with measurements taken in flight tests on a turboprop aircraft. Findings should enable future users of the program to efficiently undertake and correctly interpret predictions.

Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J.; Niessen, L.W.

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due tomore » expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

Beyond expectations: Post-implementation data shows rotavirus vaccination is likely cost-saving in Australia.

PubMed

Reyes, J F; Wood, J G; Beutels, P; Macartney, K; McIntyre, P; Menzies, R; Mealing, N; Newall, A T

2017-01-05

Universal vaccination against rotavirus was included in the funded Australian National Immunisation Program in July 2007. Predictive cost-effectiveness models assessed the program before introduction. We conducted a retrospective economic evaluation of the Australian rotavirus program using national level post-implementation data on vaccine uptake, before-after measures of program impact and published estimates of excess intussusception cases. These data were used as inputs into a multi-cohort compartmental model which assigned cost and quality of life estimates to relevant health states, adopting a healthcare payer perspective. The primary outcome was discounted cost per quality adjusted life year gained, including or excluding unspecified acute gastroenteritis (AGE) hospitalisations. Relative to the baseline period (1997-2006), over the 6years (2007-2012) after implementation of the rotavirus program, we estimated that ∼77,000 hospitalisations (17,000 coded rotavirus and 60,000 unspecified AGE) and ∼3 deaths were prevented, compared with an estimated excess of 78 cases of intussusception. Approximately 90% of hospitalisations prevented were in children <5years, with evidence of herd protection in older age groups. The program was cost-saving when observed changes (declines) in both hospitalisations coded as rotavirus and as unspecified AGE were attributed to the rotavirus vaccine program. The adverse impact of estimated excess cases of intussusception was far outweighed by the benefits of the program. The inclusion of herd impact and declines in unspecified AGE hospitalisations resulted in the value for money achieved by the Australian rotavirus immunisation program being substantially greater than predicted bypre-implementation models, despite the potential increased cases of intussusception. This Australian experience is likely to be relevant to high-income countries yet to implement rotavirus vaccination programs. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The influence of maternal health literacy and child's age on participation in social welfare programs.

PubMed

Pati, Susmita; Siewert, Elizabeth; Wong, Angie T; Bhatt, Suraj K; Calixte, Rose E; Cnaan, Avital

2014-07-01

The objective of this study is to determine the influence of maternal health literacy and child's age on participation in social welfare programs benefiting children. In a longitudinal prospective cohort study of 560 Medicaid-eligible mother-infant dyads recruited in Philadelphia, maternal health literacy was assessed using the test of functional health literacy in adults (short version). Participation in social welfare programs [Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF), Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), child care subsidy, and public housing] was self-reported at child's birth, and at the 6, 12, 18, 24 month follow-up interviews. Generalized estimating equations quantified the strength of maternal health literacy as an estimator of program participation. The mothers were primarily African-Americans (83%), single (87%), with multiple children (62%). Nearly 24% of the mothers had inadequate or marginal health literacy. Children whose mothers had inadequate health literacy were less likely to receive child care subsidy (adjusted OR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.34-0.85) than children whose mothers had adequate health literacy. Health literacy was not a significant predictor for TANF, SNAP, WIC or housing assistance. The predicted probability for participation in all programs decreased from birth to 24 months. Most notably, predicted WIC participation declined rapidly after age one. During the first 24 months, mothers with inadequate health literacy could benefit from simplified or facilitated child care subsidy application processes. Targeted outreach and enrollment efforts conducted by social welfare programs need to take into account the changing needs of families as children age.

Effects of Metabolic Programming on Juvenile Play Behavior and Gene Expression in the Prefrontal Cortex of Rats.

PubMed

Hehar, Harleen; Ma, Irene; Mychasiuk, Richelle

2016-01-01

Early developmental processes, such as metabolic programming, can provide cues to an organism, which allow it to make modifications that are predicted to be beneficial for survival. Similarly, social play has a multifaceted role in promoting survival and fitness of animals. Play is a complex behavior that is greatly influenced by motivational and reward circuits, as well as the energy reserves and metabolism of an organism. This study examined the association between metabolic programming and juvenile play behavior in an effort to further elucidate insight into the consequences that early adaptions have on developmental trajectories. The study also examined changes in expression of four genes (Drd2, IGF1, Opa1, and OxyR) in the prefrontal cortex known to play significant roles in reward, bioenergetics, and social-emotional functioning. Using four distinct variations in developmental programming (high-fat diet, caloric restriction, exercise, or high-fat diet combined with exercise), we found that dietary programming (high-fat diet vs. caloric restriction) had the greatest impact on play behavior and gene expression. However, exercise also induced changes in both measures. This study demonstrates that metabolic programming can alter neural circuits and bioenergetics involved in play behavior, thus providing new insights into mechanisms that allow programming to influence the evolutionary success of an organism. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Changes in anthropometry and performance, and their interrelationships, across three seasons in elite youth rugby league players.

PubMed

Waldron, Mark; Worsfold, Paul; Twist, Craig; Lamb, Kevin

2014-11-01

This study investigated the changes in anthropometry and performance, and their interrelationships, across 3 consecutive seasons (under-15 to under-17 age groups) in elite youth rugby league players. Each player participated in annual anthropometrical and performance assessments, comprising measurements of stature; body mass; limb lengths and circumference; skinfolds; predicted muscle cross-sectional area (CSA); 20-m speed, countermovement jump height, vertical power, and aerobic power. Lean body mass percentage changed (p ≤ 0.05) between the under-15 (70.9 ± 5.9%), under-16 (72.0 ± 5.8%), and the under-17 age groups (74.1 ± 5.7%). Likewise, predicted quadriceps muscle CSA also changed (p ≤ 0.05) between each age group (under-15 = 120.9 ± 37.8 cm; under-16 = 133.2 ± 36.0 cm; under-17 = 154.8 ± 28.3 cm). Concomitant changes between the under-15 and under-16 groups were found for 20-m speed (3.5 ± 0.1 cf. 3.4 ± 0.2 seconds; p = 0.008) and predicted jumping power (3,611.3 ± 327.3 W cf. 4,081.5 ± 453.9 W; p = 0.003). Both lean body mass and quadriceps muscle CSA consistently, related to both 20-m sprint time and jumping power, with r values ranging between -0.39 and -0.63 (20-m sprint time) and 0.55 to 0.75 (jumping power). Our findings demonstrate the importance of gains in lean body mass across later adolescence that support the ability to generate horizontal speed and predicted vertical power. This information informs the expectations and subsequent training programs of elite rugby league practitioners.

Neurolinguistic programming training, trait anxiety, and locus of control.

PubMed

Konefal, J; Duncan, R C; Reese, M A

1992-06-01

Training in the neurolinguistic programming techniques of shifting perceptual position, visual-kinesthetic dissociation, timelines, and change-history, all based on experiential cognitive processing of remembered events, leads to an increased awareness of behavioral contingencies and a more sensitive recognition of environmental cues which could serve to lower trait anxiety and increase the sense of internal control. This study reports on within-person and between-group changes in trait anxiety and locus of control as measured on the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Wallston, Wallston, and DeVallis' Multiple Health Locus of Control immediately following a 21-day residential training in neurolinguistic programming. Significant with-in-person decreases in trait-anxiety scores and increases in internal locus of control scores were observed as predicted. Chance and powerful other locus of control scores were unchanged. Significant differences were noted on trait anxiety and locus of control scores between European and U.S. participants, although change scores were similar for the two groups. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that this training may lower trait-anxiety scores and increase internal locus of control scores. A matched control group was not available, and follow-up was unfortunately not possible.

Assessment of the 1998–2001 drought impact on forest health in southeastern forests: an analysis of drought severity using FHM data

Treesearch

R. J. Klos; G. G. Wang; W. L. Bauerle

2010-01-01

Analyses of forest health indicators monitored through the Forest Health and Monitoring (FHM) program suggested that weather was the most important cause of tree mortality. Drought is of particular importance among weather variables because several global climate change scenarios predicted more frequent and/or intense drought in the Southeastern United States. During...

GOING DUTCH WHY THE DUTCH DO NOT SPEND 2% GDP ON DEFENSE

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-06

considers four major changes in the external environment that influence coalition decision- making . Combined with the party programs and the Advocation...benefit their constituents, rather than make unfavorable decisions to heighten the Defense budget. Additionally, this paper will predict that based...explains the dynamics in coalition decision- making and has three major elements; the policy subsystem, advocacy coalitions that act within the

Model Study for an Economic Data Program on the Conditions of Arts and Cultural Institutions. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deane, Robert T.; And Others

The development of econometric models and a data base to predict the responsiveness of arts institutions to changes in the economy is reported. The study focused on models for museums, theaters (profit and non-profit), symphony, ballet, opera, and dance. The report details four objectives of the project: to identify useful databases and studies on…

Life Is like the Seasons: Responding to Change, Loss, and Grief through a Peer-Based Education Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graham, Anne

2004-01-01

The experience of loss can place children and young people in a vulnerable position as it affects their development and overall emotional and social wellbeing. The experience of loss can markedly influence young people's perceptions of themselves and their world. They may not trust the predictability of events, their self-image may be damaged,…

Exercise program-induced mood improvement and improved eating in severely obese adults.

PubMed

Annesi, James J; Tennant, Gisèle A

Using a practical setting, this study aimed to test exercise and nutrition interventions' effects on negative mood, self-regulation, and self-efficacy to control eating; and to assess the ability of mood change to predict changes in eating behavior, while accounting for changes in self-regulation and self-efficacy. Severely obese adults participated in a cognitive-behavioral exercise support treatment paired with either nutrition education (n = 140) or cognitive-behavioral methods applied to improved eating (n = 146). They were assessed on measures of overall negative mood, self-regulatory skill usage, self-efficacy to control eating when negative moods are present, and fruit and vegetable consumption at baseline and Week 26. Significant improvements in each psychosocial variable and fruit and vegetable intake were found. Improved mood significantly predicted fruit and vegetable consumption change, R2 = 0.12, P < 0.001. Entry of changes in self-regulation and self-efficacy into the multiple regression equation significantly strengthened the variance explained, R2 = 0.18, P < 0.001. Findings suggest that exercise-induced improvements in mood improve eating behaviors, with increases in self-regulation and self-efficacy adding to this effect.

Economic Evaluation of Screening Strategies Combined with HPV Vaccination of Preadolescent Girls for the Prevention of Cervical Cancer in Vientiane, Lao PDR

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Several approaches to reduce the incidence of invasive cervical cancers exist. The approach adopted should take into account contextual factors that influence the cost-effectiveness of the available options. Objective To determine the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies combined with a vaccination program for 10-year old girls for cervical cancer prevention in Vientiane, Lao PDR. Methods A population-based dynamic compartment model was constructed. The interventions consisted of a 10-year old girl vaccination program only, or this program combined with screening strategies, i.e., visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), cytology-based screening, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing, or combined VIA and cytology testing. Simulations were run over 100 years. In base-case scenario analyses, we assumed a 70% vaccination coverage with lifelong protection and a 50% screening coverage. The outcome of interest was the incremental cost per Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted. Results In base-case scenarios, compared to the next best strategy, the model predicted that VIA screening of women aged 30–65 years old every three years, combined with vaccination, was the most attractive option, costing 2 544 international dollars (I$) per DALY averted. Meanwhile, rapid HPV DNA testing was predicted to be more attractive than cytology-based screening or its combination with VIA. Among cytology-based screening options, combined VIA with conventional cytology testing was predicted to be the most attractive option. Multi-way sensitivity analyses did not change the results. Compared to rapid HPV DNA testing, VIA had a probability of cost-effectiveness of 73%. Compared to the vaccination only option, the probability that a program consisting of screening women every five years would be cost-effective was around 60% and 80% if the willingness-to-pay threshold is fixed at one and three GDP per capita, respectively. Conclusions A VIA screening program in addition to a girl vaccination program was predicted to be the most attractive option in the health care context of Lao PDR. When compared with other screening methods, VIA was the primary recommended method for combination with vaccination in Lao PDR. PMID:27631732

Economic Evaluation of Screening Strategies Combined with HPV Vaccination of Preadolescent Girls for the Prevention of Cervical Cancer in Vientiane, Lao PDR.

PubMed

Chanthavilay, Phetsavanh; Reinharz, Daniel; Mayxay, Mayfong; Phongsavan, Keokedthong; Marsden, Donald E; Moore, Lynne; White, Lisa J

2016-01-01

Several approaches to reduce the incidence of invasive cervical cancers exist. The approach adopted should take into account contextual factors that influence the cost-effectiveness of the available options. To determine the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies combined with a vaccination program for 10-year old girls for cervical cancer prevention in Vientiane, Lao PDR. A population-based dynamic compartment model was constructed. The interventions consisted of a 10-year old girl vaccination program only, or this program combined with screening strategies, i.e., visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), cytology-based screening, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing, or combined VIA and cytology testing. Simulations were run over 100 years. In base-case scenario analyses, we assumed a 70% vaccination coverage with lifelong protection and a 50% screening coverage. The outcome of interest was the incremental cost per Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted. In base-case scenarios, compared to the next best strategy, the model predicted that VIA screening of women aged 30-65 years old every three years, combined with vaccination, was the most attractive option, costing 2 544 international dollars (I$) per DALY averted. Meanwhile, rapid HPV DNA testing was predicted to be more attractive than cytology-based screening or its combination with VIA. Among cytology-based screening options, combined VIA with conventional cytology testing was predicted to be the most attractive option. Multi-way sensitivity analyses did not change the results. Compared to rapid HPV DNA testing, VIA had a probability of cost-effectiveness of 73%. Compared to the vaccination only option, the probability that a program consisting of screening women every five years would be cost-effective was around 60% and 80% if the willingness-to-pay threshold is fixed at one and three GDP per capita, respectively. A VIA screening program in addition to a girl vaccination program was predicted to be the most attractive option in the health care context of Lao PDR. When compared with other screening methods, VIA was the primary recommended method for combination with vaccination in Lao PDR.

Interactive-graphic flowpath plotting for turbine engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corban, R. R.

1981-01-01

An engine cycle program capable of simulating the design and off-design performance of arbitrary turbine engines, and a computer code which, when used in conjunction with the cycle code, can predict the weight of the engines are described. A graphics subroutine was added to the code to enable the engineer to visualize the designed engine with more clarity by producing an overall view of the designed engine for output on a graphics device using IBM-370 graphics subroutines. In addition, with the engine drawn on a graphics screen, the program allows for the interactive user to make changes to the inputs to the code for the engine to be redrawn and reweighed. These improvements allow better use of the code in conjunction with the engine program.

Enhancing nurses' ethical practice: development of a clinical ethics program.

PubMed

McDaniel, C

1998-06-01

There is increasing attention paid to ethics under managed care; however, few clinical-based ethics programs are reported. This paper reports the assessment and outcomes of one such program. A quasi-experimental research design with t-tests is used to assess the outcome differences between participants and control groups. There are twenty nurses in each; they are assessed for comparability. Differences are predicted on two outcomes using reliable and valid measures: nurses' time with their patients in ethics discussions, and nurses' opinions regarding their clinical ethics environments. Results reveal a statistically significant difference (p <.05) between the two groups, with modest positive change in the participants. Additional exploratory analyses are reported on variables influential in health care services.

Beach morphology monitoring in the Columbia River Littoral Cell: 1997-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruggiero, Peter; Eshleman, Jodi L.; Kingsley, Etienne; Thompson, David M.; Voigt, Brian; Kaminsky, George M.; Gelfenbaum, Guy

2007-01-01

This report describes methods used, data collected, and results of the Beach Morphology Monitoring Program in the Columbia River Littoral Cell (CRLC) from 1997 to 2005. A collaborative group primarily consisting of the US Geological Survey and the Washington State Department of Ecology performed this work. Beach Monitoring efforts consisted of collecting topographic and bathymetric horizontal and vertical position data using a Real Time Kinematic Differential Global Positioning System (RTK-DGPS). Sediment size distribution data was also collected as part of this effort. The monitoring program was designed to: 1) quantify the short- to medium-term (seasonal to interannual) beach change rates and morphological variability along the CRLC and assess the processes responsible for these changes; 2) collect beach state data (i.e., grain size, beach slope, and dune/sandbar height/position) to enhance the conceptual understanding of CRLC functioning and refine predictions of future coastal change and hazards; 3) compare and contrast the scales of environmental forcing and beach morphodynamics in the CRLC to other coastlines of the world; and 4) provide beach change data in a useful format to land use managers.

Within-person changes in mindfulness and self-compassion predict enhanced emotional well-being in healthy, but stressed adolescents.

PubMed

Galla, Brian M

2016-06-01

Meditation training programs for adolescents are predicated on the assumptions that mindfulness and self-compassion can be directly cultivated, and further, that doing so is beneficial for emotional well-being. Yet, very little research with adolescents has tested these assumptions directly. In the current study, I examined longitudinal relationships between changes in mindfulness and self-compassion and changes in emotional well-being among healthy, but stressed adolescents who participated in five-day, intensive meditation retreats. Immediately before and after the retreats, and then three months later, 132 adolescents (Mage = 16.76 years, 61% female) completed questionnaires measuring mindfulness, self-compassion, and emotional well-being. Repeated measures ANOVA showed adolescents improved in mindfulness, self-compassion, and all indices of emotional well-being immediately following the retreat (Cohen's d = |0.39-1.19|), and many of these improvements were maintained three months later (Cohen's d = |0.04-0.68|). Further, multilevel growth curve analyses with time-varying covariates indicated within-person changes in self-compassion predicted enhanced emotional well-being more consistently than within-person changes in mindfulness. Specifically, increases in self-compassion predicted reductions in perceived stress, rumination, depressive symptoms, and negative affect, and conversely, increases in positive affect and life satisfaction (pseudo-R(2) variance explained = 5.9% and 15.8%, ps < 0.01). Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterising RNA secondary structure space using information entropy

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Comparative methods for RNA secondary structure prediction use evolutionary information from RNA alignments to increase prediction accuracy. The model is often described in terms of stochastic context-free grammars (SCFGs), which generate a probability distribution over secondary structures. It is, however, unclear how this probability distribution changes as a function of the input alignment. As prediction programs typically only return a single secondary structure, better characterisation of the underlying probability space of RNA secondary structures is of great interest. In this work, we show how to efficiently compute the information entropy of the probability distribution over RNA secondary structures produced for RNA alignments by a phylo-SCFG, and implement it for the PPfold model. We also discuss interpretations and applications of this quantity, including how it can clarify reasons for low prediction reliability scores. PPfold and its source code are available from http://birc.au.dk/software/ppfold/. PMID:23368905

Coupling Protein Side-Chain and Backbone Flexibility Improves the Re-design of Protein-Ligand Specificity.

PubMed

Ollikainen, Noah; de Jong, René M; Kortemme, Tanja

2015-01-01

Interactions between small molecules and proteins play critical roles in regulating and facilitating diverse biological functions, yet our ability to accurately re-engineer the specificity of these interactions using computational approaches has been limited. One main difficulty, in addition to inaccuracies in energy functions, is the exquisite sensitivity of protein-ligand interactions to subtle conformational changes, coupled with the computational problem of sampling the large conformational search space of degrees of freedom of ligands, amino acid side chains, and the protein backbone. Here, we describe two benchmarks for evaluating the accuracy of computational approaches for re-engineering protein-ligand interactions: (i) prediction of enzyme specificity altering mutations and (ii) prediction of sequence tolerance in ligand binding sites. After finding that current state-of-the-art "fixed backbone" design methods perform poorly on these tests, we develop a new "coupled moves" design method in the program Rosetta that couples changes to protein sequence with alterations in both protein side-chain and protein backbone conformations, and allows for changes in ligand rigid-body and torsion degrees of freedom. We show significantly increased accuracy in both predicting ligand specificity altering mutations and binding site sequences. These methodological improvements should be useful for many applications of protein-ligand design. The approach also provides insights into the role of subtle conformational adjustments that enable functional changes not only in engineering applications but also in natural protein evolution.

The Impact of Social Support and Attachment Style on Quality of Life and Readiness to Change in a Sample of Individuals Receiving Medication-Assisted Treatment for Opioid Dependence.

PubMed

Cavaiola, Alan A; Fulmer, Barbara A; Stout, David

2015-01-01

A basic principle within the addictions treatment field is that social support is a vital ingredient in the recovery process. This study examines the nature of social support in a sample of opioid-dependent men and women who are currently being treated in a medication-assisted treatment program (methadone). This research examines the types of social support behaviors that the opioid-dependent individuals consider helpful and explores whether attachment style (i.e., secure, ambivalent, or anxious attachment) was a determining factor in whether social support was perceived as helpful. The dependent variables included readiness to change addictive behaviors and abstinence from other mood-altering drugs. Participants (N = 159) completed a demographic questionnaire, the Significant Others Scale, the Experiences in Close Relationships Scale, the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support Assessment, the Readiness to Change Scale, and an Attachment Style Questionnaire. The demographic questionnaire included subjective ratings of self-improvement. Social support predicted perceived improvement in all of the areas examined (e.g., health, family/social relationships) and abstinence; however, attachment style did not predict improvement or with readiness to change. Social support is an important factor in one's recovery from substance use disorders. Yet attachment style (i.e., anxious, avoidant, or secure) did not predict abstinence or overall improvement in functioning.

SEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic Change--A System-scale, Cross-disciplinary Arctic Research Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shnoro, R. S.; Eicken, H.; Francis, J. A.; Scambos, T. A.; Schuur, E. A.; Straneo, F.; Wiggins, H. V.

2013-12-01

SEARCH is an interdisciplinary, interagency program that works with academic and government agency scientists and stakeholders to plan, conduct, and synthesize studies of Arctic change. Over the past three years, SEARCH has developed a new vision and mission, a set of prioritized cross-disciplinary 5-year goals, an integrated set of activities, and an organizational structure. The vision of SEARCH is to provide scientific understanding of arctic environmental change to help society understand and respond to a rapidly changing Arctic. SEARCH's 5-year science goals include: 1. Improve understanding, advance prediction, and explore consequences of changing Arctic sea ice. 2. Document and understand how degradation of near-surface permafrost will affect Arctic and global systems. 3. Improve predictions of future land-ice loss and impacts on sea level. 4. Analyze societal and policy implications of Arctic environmental change. Action Teams organized around each of the 5-year goals will serve as standing groups responsible for implementing specific goal activities. Members will be drawn from academia, different agencies and stakeholders, with a range of disciplinary backgrounds and perspectives. 'Arctic Futures 2050' scenarios tasks will describe plausible future states of the arctic system based on recent trajectories and projected changes. These scenarios will combine a range of data including climate model output, paleo-data, results from data synthesis and systems modeling, as well as expert scientific and traditional knowledge. Current activities include: - Arctic Observing Network (AON) - coordinating a system of atmospheric, land- and ocean-based environmental monitoring capabilities that will significantly advance our observations of arctic environmental conditions. - Arctic Sea Ice Outlook - an international effort that provides monthly summer reports synthesizing community estimates of the expected sea ice minimum. A newly-launched Sea Ice Prediction Network will create a network of scientists and stakeholders to generate, assess and communicate Arctic seasonal sea ice forecasts. - Collaboration with the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC) to implement mutual science goals. SEARCH is sponsored by 8 U.S. agencies, including: the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, the Department of the Interior, the Smithsonian Institution, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The U.S. Arctic Research Commission participates as an observer. For more information: http://www.arcus.org/search.

Attentional Bias Modification for Social Anxiety Disorder: What do Patients Think and Why does it Matter?

PubMed

Kuckertz, Jennie M; Schofield, Casey A; Clerkin, Elise M; Primack, Jennifer; Boettcher, Hannah; Weisberg, Risa B; Amir, Nader; Beard, Courtney

2018-05-06

In the past decade, a great deal of research has examined the efficacy and mechanisms of attentional bias modification (ABM), a computerized cognitive training intervention for anxiety and other disorders. However, little research has examined how anxious patients perceive ABM, and it is unclear to what extent perceptions of ABM influence outcome. To examine patient perceptions of ABM across two studies, using a mixed methods approach. In the first study, participants completed a traditional ABM program and received a hand-out with minimal information about the purpose of the task. In the second study, participants completed an adaptive ABM program and were provided with more extensive rationale and instructions for changing attentional biases. A number of themes emerged from qualitative data related to perceived symptom changes and mechanisms of action, acceptability, early perceptions of the program, barriers/facilitators to engagement, and responses to adaptive features. Moreover, quantitative data suggested that patients' perceptions of the program predicted symptom reduction as well as change in attentional bias. Our quantitative data suggest that it may be possible to quickly and inexpensively identify some patients who may benefit from current ABM programs, although our qualitative data suggest that ABM needs major modifications before it will be an acceptable and credible treatment more broadly. Although the current study was limited by sample size and design features of the parent trials from which these data originated, our findings may be useful for guiding hypotheses in future studies examining patient perceptions towards ABM.

Workplace threats to health and job turnover among women workers.

PubMed

Gucer, Patricia W; Oliver, Marc; McDiarmid, Melissa

2003-07-01

Is job turnover related to concern about workplace health risks? Using data from a national sample of working women, we examined the relationships among workplace risk communications, worker concerns about workplace threats from hazardous substances, indoor air quality, and job change. Eight percent reported changing a job as a result of concern over workplace threats to health. Previous workplace injury predicted concern about hazardous materials and indoor air quality as well as job change, but employer communication about workplace health risks was associated with less job change and less concern about indoor air quality. Women worry about workplace threats to their health enough to change their jobs, but employers may have the power to cut turnover costs and reduce disruption to workers' lives through the use of risk communication programs.

[Development of a predictive program for microbial growth under various temperature conditions].

PubMed

Fujikawa, Hiroshi; Yano, Kazuyoshi; Morozumi, Satoshi; Kimura, Bon; Fujii, Tateo

2006-12-01

A predictive program for microbial growth under various temperature conditions was developed with a mathematical model. The model was a new logistic model recently developed by us. The program predicts Escherichia coli growth in broth, Staphylococcus aureus growth and its enterotoxin production in milk, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus growth in broth at various temperature patterns. The program, which was built with Microsoft Excel (Visual Basic Application), is user-friendly; users can easily input the temperature history of a test food and obtain the prediction instantly on the computer screen. The predicted growth and toxin production can be important indices to determine whether a food is microbiologically safe or not. This program should be a useful tool to confirm the microbial safety of commercial foods.

Predicting nonstationary flood frequencies: Evidence supports an updated stationarity thesis in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Adam; Vrugt, Jasper A.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Matthew, Richard; Sanders, Brett F.

2017-07-01

Nonstationary extreme value analysis (NEVA) can improve the statistical representation of observed flood peak distributions compared to stationary (ST) analysis, but management of flood risk relies on predictions of out-of-sample distributions for which NEVA has not been comprehensively evaluated. In this study, we apply split-sample testing to 1250 annual maximum discharge records in the United States and compare the predictive capabilities of NEVA relative to ST extreme value analysis using a log-Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution. The parameters of the LPIII distribution in the ST and nonstationary (NS) models are estimated from the first half of each record using Bayesian inference. The second half of each record is reserved to evaluate the predictions under the ST and NS models. The NS model is applied for prediction by (1) extrapolating the trend of the NS model parameters throughout the evaluation period and (2) using the NS model parameter values at the end of the fitting period to predict with an updated ST model (uST). Our analysis shows that the ST predictions are preferred, overall. NS model parameter extrapolation is rarely preferred. However, if fitting period discharges are influenced by physical changes in the watershed, for example from anthropogenic activity, the uST model is strongly preferred relative to ST and NS predictions. The uST model is therefore recommended for evaluation of current flood risk in watersheds that have undergone physical changes. Supporting information includes a MATLAB® program that estimates the (ST/NS/uST) LPIII parameters from annual peak discharge data through Bayesian inference.

Evaluating Fidelity: Predictive Validity for a Measure of Competent Adherence to the Oregon Model of Parent Management Training

PubMed Central

Forgatch, Marion S.; Patterson, Gerald R.; DeGarmo, David S.

2006-01-01

When efficacious interventions are implemented in real-world conditions, it is important to evaluate whether or not the programs are practiced as intended. This article presents the Fidelity of Implementation Rating System (FIMP), an observation-based measure assessing competent adherence to the Oregon model of Parent Management Training (PMTO). FIMP evaluates 5 dimensions of competent adherence to PMTO (i.e., knowledge, structure, teaching skill, clinical skill, and overall effectiveness) specified in the intervention model. Predictive validity for FIMP was evaluated with a subsample of stepfamilies participating in a preventive PMTO intervention. As hypothesized, high FIMP ratings predicted change in observed parenting practices from baseline to 12 months. The rigor and scope of adherence measures are discussed. PMID:16718302

Limits to captive breeding of mammals in zoos.

PubMed

Alroy, John

2015-06-01

Captive breeding of mammals in zoos is the last hope for many of the best-known endangered species and has succeeded in saving some from certain extinction. However, the number of managed species selected is relatively small and focused on large-bodied, charismatic mammals that are not necessarily under strong threat and not always good candidates for reintroduction into the wild. Two interrelated and more fundamental questions go unanswered: have the major breeding programs succeeded at the basic level of maintaining and expanding populations, and is there room to expand them? I used published counts of births and deaths from 1970 to 2011 to quantify rates of growth of 118 captive-bred mammalian populations. These rates did not vary with body mass, contrary to strong predictions made in the ecological literature. Most of the larger managed mammalian populations expanded consistently and very few programs failed. However, growth rates have declined dramatically. The decline was predicted by changes in the ratio of the number of individuals within programs to the number of mammal populations held in major zoos. Rates decreased as the ratio of individuals in programs to populations increased. In other words, most of the programs that could exist already do exist. It therefore appears that debates over the general need for captive-breeding programs and the best selection of species are moot. Only a concerted effort could create room to manage a substantially larger number of endangered mammals. © 2015, Society for Conservation Biology.

Capitation of public mental health services in Colorado: a five-year follow-up of system-level effects.

PubMed

Bloom, Joan R; Wang, Huihui; Kang, Soo Hyang; Wallace, Neal T; Hyun, Jenny K; Hu, Teh-wei

2011-02-01

Capitated Medicaid mental health programs have reduced costs over the short term by lowering the utilization of high-cost inpatient services. This study examined the five-year effects of capitated financing in community mental health centers (CMHCs) by comparing not-for-profit with for-profit programs. Data were from the Medicaid billing system in Colorado for the precapitation year (1994) and a shadow billing system for the postcapitation years (1995-1999). In a panel design, a random-effect approach estimated the impact of two financing systems on service utilization and cost while adjusting for all the covariates. Consistent with predictions, in both the for-profit and the not-for-profit CMHCs, relative to the precapitation year, there were significant reductions in each postcapitation year in high-cost treatments (inpatient treatment) for all but one comparison (not-for-profit CMHCs in 1999). Also consistent with predictions, the for-profit programs realized significant reductions in cost per user for both outpatient services and total services. In the not-for-profit programs, there were no significant changes in cost per user for total services; a significant reduction in cost per user for outpatient services was found only in the first two years, 1995 and 1996). The evidence suggests that different strategies were used by the not-for-profit and for-profit programs to control expenditures and utilization and that the for-profit programs were more successful in reducing cost per user.

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Science and Prediction Initiatives of the NOAA MAPP Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Mariotti, A.

2016-12-01

There is great practical interest in developing predictions beyond the 2-week weather timescale. Scientific communities have historically organized themselves around the weather and climate problems, but the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale range overall is recognized as new territory for which a concerted shared effort is needed. For instance, the climate community, as part of programs like CLIVAR, has historically tackled coupled phenomena and modeling, keys to harnessing predictability on longer timescales. In contrast, the weather community has focused on synoptic dynamics, higher-resolution modeling, and enhanced model initialization, of importance at the shorter timescales and especially for the prediction of extremes. The processes and phenomena specific to timescales between weather and climate require a unified approach to science, modeling, and predictions. Internationally, the WWRP/WCRP S2S Prediction Project is a promising catalyzer for these types of activities. Among the various contributing U.S. research programs, the Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program, as part of the NOAA Climate Program Office, has launched coordinated research and transition activities that help to meet the agency's goals to fill the weather-to-climate prediction gap and will contribute to advance international goals. This presentation will describe ongoing MAPP program S2S science and prediction initiatives, specifically the MAPP S2S Task Force and the SubX prediction experiment.

Exercise program for nursing home residents with Alzheimer's disease: a 1-year randomized, controlled trial.

PubMed

Rolland, Yves; Pillard, Fabien; Klapouszczak, Adrian; Reynish, Emma; Thomas, David; Andrieu, Sandrine; Rivière, Daniel; Vellas, Bruno

2007-02-01

To investigate the effectiveness of an exercise program in improving ability to perform activities of daily living (ADLs), physical performance, and nutritional status and decreasing behavioral disturbance and depression in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). Randomized, controlled trial. Five nursing homes. One hundred thirty-four ambulatory patients with mild to severe AD. Collective exercise program (1 hour, twice weekly of walk, strength, balance, and flexibility training) or routine medical care for 12 months. ADLs were assessed using the Katz Index of ADLs. Physical performance was evaluated using 6-meter walking speed, the get-up-and-go test, and the one-leg-balance test. Behavioral disturbance, depression, and nutritional status were evaluated using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory, the Montgomery and Asberg Depression Rating Scale, and the Mini-Nutritional Assessment. For each outcome measure, the mean change from baseline to 12 months was calculated using intention-to-treat analysis. ADL mean change from baseline score for exercise program patients showed a slower decline than in patients receiving routine medical care (12-month mean treatment differences: ADL=0.39, P=.02). A significant difference between the groups in favor of the exercise program was observed for 6-meter walking speed at 12 months. No effect was observed for behavioral disturbance, depression, or nutritional assessment scores. In the intervention group, adherence to the program sessions in exploratory analysis predicted change in ability to perform ADLs. No adverse effects of exercise occurred. A simple exercise program, 1 hour twice a week, led to significantly slower decline in ADL score in patients with AD living in a nursing home than routine medical care.

Solid-propellant rocket motor internal ballistics performance variation analysis, phase 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sforzini, R. H.; Murph, J. E.

1980-01-01

The results of research aimed at improving the predictability of internal ballistics performance of solid-propellant rocket motors (SRM's) including thrust imbalance between two SRM's firing in parallel are presented. Static test data from the first six Space Shuttle SRM's is analyzed using a computer program previously developed for this purpose. The program permits intentional minor design biases affecting the imbalance between any two SMR's to be removed. Results for the last four of the six SRM's, with only the propellant bulk temperature as a non-random variable, are generally within limits predicted by theory. Extended studies of internal ballistic performance of single SRM's are presented based on an earlier developed mathematical model which includes an assessment of grain deformation. The erosive burning rate law used in the model is upgraded and made more general. Excellent results are obtained in predictions of the performances of five different SRM's of quite different sizes and configurations. These SRM's all employ PBAN type propellants with ammonium perchlorate oxidizer and 16 to 20% aluminum except one which uses carboxyl terminated butadiene binder. The only non-calculated parameters in the burning rate equations that are changed for the different SRM's are the zero crossflow velocity burning rate coefficients and exponents. The results, in general, confirm the importance of grain deformation. The improved internal ballistic model makes practical development of an effective computer program for application of an optimization technique to SRM design which is also demonstrated. The program uses a pattern search technique to minimize the difference between a desired thrust-time trace and one calculated based on the internal ballistic model.

MACARON: A python framework to identify and re-annotate multi-base affected codons in whole genome/exome sequence data.

PubMed

Khan, Waqasuddin; Saripella, Ganapathi Varma-; Ludwig, Thomas; Cuppens, Tania; Thibord, Florian; Génin, Emmanuelle; Deleuze, Jean-Francois; Trégouët, David-Alexandre

2018-05-03

Predicted deleteriousness of coding variants is a frequently used criterion to filter out variants detected in next-generation sequencing projects and to select candidates impacting on the risk of human diseases. Most available dedicated tools implement a base-to-base annotation approach that could be biased in presence of several variants in the same genetic codon. We here proposed the MACARON program that, from a standard VCF file, identifies, re-annotates and predicts the amino acid change resulting from multiple single nucleotide variants (SNVs) within the same genetic codon. Applied to the whole exome dataset of 573 individuals, MACARON identifies 114 situations where multiple SNVs within a genetic codon induce an amino acid change that is different from those predicted by standard single SNV annotation tool. Such events are not uncommon and deserve to be studied in sequencing projects with inconclusive findings. MACARON is written in python with codes available on the GENMED website (www.genmed.fr). david-alexandre.tregouet@inserm.fr. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Prediction monitoring and evaluation program; a progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunter, R.N.; Derr, J.S.

1978-01-01

As part of an attempt to separate useful predictions from inaccurate guesses, we have kept score on earthquake predictions from all sources brought to our attention over the past year and a half. The program was outlined in "Earthquake Prediction;Fact and Fallacy" by Roger N. Hunter (Earthquake Information Bulletin, vol. 8, no. 5, September-October 1976, p. 24-25). The program attracted a great deal of public attention, and, as a result, our files now contain over 2500 predictions from more than 230 different people. 

Organizational attributes of practices successful at a disease management program.

PubMed

Cloutier, Michelle M; Wakefield, Dorothy B; Tsimikas, John; Hall, Charles B; Tennen, Howard; Brazil, Kevin

2009-02-01

To assess the contribution of organizational factors to implementation of 3 asthma quality measures: enrollment in a disease management program, development of a written treatment plan, and prescription of severity-appropriate anti-inflammatory therapy. A total of 138 pediatric clinicians and 247 office staff in 13 urban clinics and 23 nonurban private practices completed questionnaires about their practice's organizational characteristics (eg, leadership, communication, perceived effectiveness, job satisfaction). 94% of the clinicians and 92% of the office staff completed questionnaires. When adjusted for confounders, greater practice activity and perceived effectiveness in meeting family needs were associated with higher rates of enrollment in the Easy Breathing program, whereas higher scores for 3 organizational characteristics--communication timeliness, decision authority, and job satisfaction--were associated with both higher enrollment and a greater number of written treatment plans. None of the organizational characteristics was associated with greater use of anti-inflammatory therapy. Three organizational characteristics predicted 2 quality asthma measures: use of a disease management program and creation of a written asthma treatment plan. If these organizational characteristics were amenable to change, then our findings could help focus interventions in areas of effective and acceptable organizational change.

Predictors of Program Use and Child and Parent Outcomes of A Brief Online Parenting Intervention.

PubMed

Baker, Sabine; Sanders, Matthew R

2017-10-01

Web-based parenting interventions have the potential to increase the currently low reach of parenting programs, but few evidence-based online programs are available, and little is known about who benefits from this delivery format. This study investigated if improvements in child behavior and parenting, following participation in a brief online parenting program (Triple P Online Brief), can be predicted by family and program-related factors. Participants were 100 parents of 2-9-year-old children displaying disruptive behavior problems. Regression analyses showed that higher baseline levels of child behavior problems, older parental age and more intense conflict over parenting pre-intervention predicted greater improvement in child behavior at 9-month follow-up. Improvement in parenting was predicted by higher pre-intervention levels of ineffective parenting. Family demographics, parental adjustment and program related factors did not predict treatment outcomes. Younger child age and lower disagreement over parenting pre-intervention predicted completion of the recommended minimum dose of the program.

A Joyful Heart is Good Medicine: Positive Affect Predicts Memory Complaints.

PubMed

Lee, Pai-Lin

2016-08-01

Positive affect (PA) systematically improves cognitive performance on a wide range of cognitive tasks, but the link between PA and subjective memory complaints (SMCs) is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between PA (level and change) and SMCs over a 10-year span. Current data included participants who completed all measures in the Midlife in the US Study (N = 2,214; age range: 50-84 years; mean: 62.81; standard deviation [SD]: 8.98). The level (mean of Time 1 and Time 2) and change (Time 2 minus Time 1) of PA was examined longitudinally to determine if PA predicts SMCs. The long-term level and change of PA predicted SMCs. No age and education differences were found for the effects of PA (PA × age and PA × education) on SMCs. Additional comparison analysis found high PA (+1 SD) differs from low PA (-1 SD) on age, financial condition and depression, and physical activity. This study provides longitudinal evidence that further supports PA is associated with a key cognitive aging outcome, SMCs. Effective cognitive-health programs may need to pay more attention to PA intervention. Copyright © 2016 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

Carvalho, B M; Rangel, E F; Vale, M M

2017-08-01

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

Program, policy, and price interventions for tobacco control: quantifying the return on investment of a state tobacco control program.

PubMed

Dilley, Julia A; Harris, Jeffrey R; Boysun, Michael J; Reid, Terry R

2012-02-01

We examined health effects associated with 3 tobacco control interventions in Washington State: a comprehensive state program, a state policy banning smoking in public places, and price increases. We used linear regression models to predict changes in smoking prevalence and specific tobacco-related health conditions associated with the interventions. We estimated dollars saved over 10 years (2000-2009) by the value of hospitalizations prevented, discounting for national trends. Smoking declines in the state exceeded declines in the nation. Of the interventions, the state program had the most consistent and largest effect on trends for heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, and cancer. Over 10 years, implementation of the program was associated with prevention of nearly 36,000 hospitalizations, at a value of about $1.5 billion. The return on investment for the state program was more than $5 to $1. The combined program, policy, and price interventions resulted in reductions in smoking and related health effects, while saving money. Public health and other leaders should continue to invest in tobacco control, including comprehensive programs.

FLAPS (Fatigue Life Analysis Programs): Computer Programs to Predict Cyclic Life Using the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning and Other Life Prediction Methods. Users' Manual and Example Problems, Version 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arya, Vinod K.; Halford, Gary R. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

This manual presents computer programs FLAPS for characterizing and predicting fatigue and creep-fatigue resistance of metallic materials in the high-temperature, long-life regime for isothermal and nonisothermal fatigue. The programs use the Total Strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP), and several other life prediction methods described in this manual. The user should be thoroughly familiar with the TS-SRP and these life prediction methods before attempting to use any of these programs. Improper understanding can lead to incorrect use of the method and erroneous life predictions. An extensive database has also been developed in a parallel effort. The database is probably the largest source of high-temperature, creep-fatigue test data available in the public domain and can be used with other life-prediction methods as well. This users' manual, software, and database are all in the public domain and can be obtained by contacting the author. The Compact Disk (CD) accompanying this manual contains an executable file for the FLAPS program, two datasets required for the example problems in the manual, and the creep-fatigue data in a format compatible with these programs.

MIZEX: A Program for Mesoscale Air-Ice-Ocean Interaction Experiments in Arctic Marginal Ice Zones. VIII. A Science Plan for a Winter Marginal Ice Zone Experiment in the Fram Strait/Greenland Sea: 1987/89,

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-04-01

forward modeling, with the pa- be telemetered via the ARGOS system for real - rameter changes needed to bring the predictions time evaluation, and the...integrated en ’i- rtinnental measurement svs fern. quisition system to the Winter MIZEX in I-ram To control and direct the experiment, real - time Strait...to measure, under- Electromagnetic sensing via aircraft and satellites stand, and model: will be employed in real time to identify eddy " Changes in

Dynamic and thermal analysis of high speed tapered roller bearings under combined loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crecelius, W. J.; Milke, D. R.

1973-01-01

The development of a computer program capable of predicting the thermal and kinetic performance of high-speed tapered roller bearings operating with fluid lubrication under applied axial, radial and moment loading (five degrees of freedom) is detailed. Various methods of applying lubrication can be considered as well as changes in bearing internal geometry which occur as the bearing is brought to operating speeds, loads and temperatures.

A research program to reduce interior noise in general aviation airplanes: Noise reduction through a cavity-backed flexible plate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roskam, J.; Vandam, C. P. G.

1978-01-01

A prediction method is reported for noise reduction through a cavity-backed panel. The analysis takes into account only cavity modes in one direction. The results of this analysis were to find the effect of acoustic stiffness of a backing cavity on the panel behavior. The resulting changes in the noise reduction through the panel are significant.

Using vibrational molecular spectroscopy to reveal association of steam-flaking induced carbohydrates molecular structural changes with grain fractionation, biodigestion and biodegradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ningning; Liu, Jianxin; Yu, Peiqiang

2018-04-01

Advanced vibrational molecular spectroscopy has been developed as a rapid and non-destructive tool to reveal intrinsic molecular structure conformation of biological tissues. However, this technique has not been used to systematically study flaking induced structure changes at a molecular level. The objective of this study was to use vibrational molecular spectroscopy to reveal association between steam flaking induced CHO molecular structural changes in relation to grain CHO fractionation, predicted CHO biodegradation and biodigestion in ruminant system. The Attenuate Total Reflectance Fourier-transform Vibrational Molecular Spectroscopy (ATR-Ft/VMS) at SRP Key Lab of Molecular Structure and Molecular Nutrition, Ministry of Agriculture Strategic Research Chair Program (SRP, University of Saskatchewan) was applied in this study. The fractionation, predicted biodegradation and biodigestion were evaluated using the Cornell Net Carbohydrate Protein System. The results show that: (1) The steam flaking induced significant changes in CHO subfractions, CHO biodegradation and biodigestion in ruminant system. There were significant differences between non-processed (raw) and steam flaked grain corn (P < .01); (2) The ATR-Ft/VMS molecular technique was able to detect the processing induced CHO molecular structure changes; (3) Induced CHO molecular structure spectral features are significantly correlated (P < .05) to CHO subfractions, CHO biodegradation and biodigestion and could be applied to potentially predict CHO biodegradation (R2 = 0.87, RSD = 0.74, P < .01) and intestinal digestible undegraded CHO (R2 = 0.87, RSD = 0.24, P < .01). In summary, the processing induced molecular CHO structure changes in grain corn could be revealed by the ATR-Ft/VMS vibrational molecular spectroscopy. These molecular structure changes in grain were potentially associated with CHO biodegradation and biodigestion.

The Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) Software Toolbox Capabilities in Assessing the Degradation of Cementitious Barriers - 13487

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flach, G.P.; Burns, H.H.; Langton, C.

2013-07-01

The Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) Project is a multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional collaboration supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) Office of Tank Waste and Nuclear Materials Management. The CBP program has developed a set of integrated tools (based on state-of-the-art models and leaching test methods) that help improve understanding and predictions of the long-term structural, hydraulic and chemical performance of cementitious barriers used in nuclear applications. Tools selected for and developed under this program have been used to evaluate and predict the behavior of cementitious barriers used in near-surface engineered waste disposal systems for periods of performance up tomore » 100 years and longer for operating facilities and longer than 1000 years for waste disposal. The CBP Software Toolbox has produced tangible benefits to the DOE Performance Assessment (PA) community. A review of prior DOE PAs has provided a list of potential opportunities for improving cementitious barrier performance predictions through the use of the CBP software tools. These opportunities include: 1) impact of atmospheric exposure to concrete and grout before closure, such as accelerated slag and Tc-99 oxidation, 2) prediction of changes in K{sub d}/mobility as a function of time that result from changing pH and redox conditions, 3) concrete degradation from rebar corrosion due to carbonation, 4) early age cracking from drying and/or thermal shrinkage and 5) degradation due to sulfate attack. The CBP has already had opportunity to provide near-term, tangible support to ongoing DOE-EM PAs such as the Savannah River Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) by providing a sulfate attack analysis that predicts the extent and damage that sulfate ingress will have on the concrete vaults over extended time (i.e., > 1000 years). This analysis is one of the many technical opportunities in cementitious barrier performance that can be addressed by the DOE-EM sponsored CBP software tools. Modification of the existing tools can provide many opportunities to bring defense in depth in prediction of the performance of cementitious barriers over time. (authors)« less

Small Engine Technology (SET). Task 33: Airframe, Integration, and Community Noise Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lieber, Lys S.; Elkins, Daniel; Golub, Robert A. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Task Order 33 had four primary objectives as follows: (1) Identify and prioritize the airframe noise reduction technologies needed to accomplish the NASA Pillar goals for business and regional aircraft. (2) Develop a model to estimate the effect of jet shear layer refraction and attenuation of internally generated source noise of a turbofan engine on the aircraft system noise. (3) Determine the effect on community noise of source noise changes of a generic turbofan engine operating from sea level to 15,000 feet. (4) Support lateral attenuation experiments conducted by NASA Langley at Wallops Island, VA, by coordinating opportunities for Contractor Aircraft to participate as a noise source during the noise measurements. Noise data and noise prediction tools, including airframe noise codes, from the NASA Advanced Subsonic Technology (AST) program were applied to assess the current status of noise reduction technologies relative to the NASA pillar goals for regional and small business jet aircraft. In addition, the noise prediction tools were applied to evaluate the effectiveness of airframe-related noise reduction concepts developed in the AST program on reducing the aircraft system noise. The AST noise data and acoustic prediction tools used in this study were furnished by NASA.

VLF nighttime data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1991-03-01

This paper documents a very low frequency/low frequency (VLF/LF) Data Analysis task by the Naval Ocean Systems Center to improve the modeling of the nighttime ionosphere when making propagation predictions with the Long Wave Propagation Capability (LWPC) computer program. The task utilizes an extensive database of VLF measured data recorded during the 1985 to 1986 trips of the merchant ship GTS Callaghan in the North Atlantic area. By constraining the Callaghan data to those periods when both the ship and the distant transmitters were in time zones consistent with all-nighttime propagation, and by eliminating data from trips outside the principal area of interest, an aggregated set of recorded data was assembled for each frequency of concern. Four frequencies were examined: 16.0, 19.0, 21.4 and 24.0 kHz. Recorded data sets were graphed as signal vs. distance plots, computing distance from the transmitter for each ship's location. The LWPC program was then utilized to compute signal vs. distance along a typical path in the same ocean area, and the predicted and recorded data were compared. By changing the LWPC parameters different propagation predictions were compared with the recorded data until a best fit was obtained.

Consumer factors predicting level of treatment response to illness management and recovery.

PubMed

White, Dominique A; McGuire, Alan B; Luther, Lauren; Anderson, Adrienne I; Phalen, Peter; McGrew, John H

2017-12-01

This study aims to identify consumer-level predictors of level of treatment response to illness management and recovery (IMR) to target the appropriate consumers and aid psychiatric rehabilitation settings in developing intervention adaptations. Secondary analyses from a multisite study of IMR were conducted. Self-report data from consumer participants of the parent study (n = 236) were analyzed for the current study. Consumers completed prepost surveys assessing illness management, coping, goal-related hope, social support, medication adherence, and working alliance. Correlations and multiple regression analyses were run to identify self-report variables that predicted level of treatment response to IMR. Analyses revealed that goal-related hope significantly predicted level of improved illness self-management, F(1, 164) = 10.93, p < .001, R2 = .248, R2 change = .05. Additionally, we found that higher levels of maladaptive coping at baseline were predictive of higher levels of adaptive coping at follow-up, F(2, 180) = 5.29, p < .02, R2 = .38, R2 change = .02. Evidence did not support additional predictors. Previously, consumer-level predictors of level of treatment response have not been explored for IMR. Although 2 significant predictors were identified, study findings suggest more work is needed. Future research is needed to identify additional consumer-level factors predictive of IMR treatment response in order to identify who would benefit most from this treatment program. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

TS-SRP/PACK - COMPUTER PROGRAMS TO CHARACTERIZE ALLOYS AND PREDICT CYCLIC LIFE USING THE TOTAL STRAIN VERSION OF STRAINRANGE PARTITIONING

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltsman, J. F.

1994-01-01

TS-SRP/PACK is a set of computer programs for characterizing and predicting fatigue and creep-fatigue resistance of metallic materials in the high-temperature, long-life regime for isothermal and nonisothermal fatigue. The programs use the total strain version of the Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP). The user should be thoroughly familiar with the TS-SRP method before attempting to use any of these programs. The document for this program includes a theory manual as well as a detailed user's manual with a tutorial to guide the user in the proper use of TS-SRP. An extensive database has also been developed in a parallel effort. This database is an excellent source of high-temperature, creep-fatigue test data and can be used with other life-prediction methods as well. Five programs are included in TS-SRP/PACK along with the alloy database. The TABLE program is used to print the datasets, which are in NAMELIST format, in a reader friendly format. INDATA is used to create new datasets or add to existing ones. The FAIL program is used to characterize the failure behavior of an alloy as given by the constants in the strainrange-life relations used by the total strain version of SRP (TS-SRP) and the inelastic strainrange-based version of SRP. The program FLOW is used to characterize the flow behavior (the constitutive response) of an alloy as given by the constants in the flow equations used by TS-SRP. Finally, LIFE is used to predict the life of a specified cycle, using the constants characterizing failure and flow behavior determined by FAIL and FLOW. LIFE is written in interpretive BASIC to avoid compiling and linking every time the equation constants are changed. Four out of five programs in this package are written in FORTRAN 77 for IBM PC series and compatible computers running MS-DOS and are designed to read data using the NAMELIST format statement. The fifth is written in BASIC version 3.0 for IBM PC series and compatible computers running MS-DOS version 3.10. The executables require at least 239K of memory and DOS 3.1 or higher. To compile the source, a Lahey FORTRAN compiler is required. Source code modifications will be necessary if the compiler to be used does not support NAMELIST input. Probably the easiest revision to make is to use a list-directed READ statement. The standard distribution medium for this program is a set of two 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskettes. The contents of the diskettes are compressed using the PKWARE archiving tools. The utility to unarchive the files, PKUNZIP.EXE, is included. TS-SRP/PACK was developed in 1992.

Sun Series program for the REEDA System. [predicting orbital lifetime using sunspot values

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shankle, R. W.

1980-01-01

Modifications made to data bases and to four programs in a series of computer programs (Sun Series) which run on the REEDA HP minicomputer system to aid NASA's solar activity predictions used in orbital life time predictions are described. These programs utilize various mathematical smoothing technique and perform statistical and graphical analysis of various solar activity data bases residing on the REEDA System.

Predictors of early versus late smoking abstinence within a 24-month disease management program.

PubMed

Cox, Lisa Sanderson; Wick, Jo A; Nazir, Niaman; Cupertino, A Paula; Mussulman, Laura M; Ahluwalia, Jasjit S; Ellerbeck, Edward F

2011-03-01

Standard smoking cessation treatment studies have been limited to 6- to 12-month follow-up, and examination of predictors of abstinence has been restricted to this timeframe. The KanQuit study enrolled 750 rural smokers across all stages of readiness to stop smoking and provided pharmacotherapy management and/or disease management, including motivational interviewing (MI) counseling every 6 months over 2 years. This paper examines differences in predictors of abstinence following initial (6-month) and extended (24-month) intervention. Baseline variables were analyzed as potential predictors of self-reported smoking abstinence at Month 6 and at Month 24. Chi-square tests, 2-sample t tests, and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of abstinence among 592 participants who completed assessment at baseline and Months 6 and 24. Controlling for treatment group, the final regression models showed that male gender and lower baseline cigarettes per day predicted abstinence at both 6 and 24 months. While remaining significant, the relative advantage of being male decreased over time. Global motivation to stop smoking, controlled motivation, and self-efficacy predicted abstinence at 6 months but did not predict abstinence at Month 24. In contrast, stage of change was strongly predictive of 24-month smoking status. While the importance of some predictors of successful smoking cessation appeared to diminish over time, initial lack of interest in cessation and number of cigarettes per day strongly predicted continued smoking following a 2-year program.

Sudden temperature changes in the Sydney Basin: climatology and case studies during the Olympic months of September and October

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buckley, Bruce W.; Leslie, Lance M.

2000-03-01

The accurate prediction of sudden large changes in the maximum temperature from one day to the next remains one of the major challenges for operational forecasters. It is probably the meteorological parameter most commonly verified and used as a measure of the skill of a meteorological service and one that is immediately evident to the general public. Marked temperature changes over a short period of time have widespread social, economic, health and safety effects on the community. The first part of this paper describes a 40-year climatology for Sydney, Australia, of sudden temperature rises and falls, defined as maximum temperature changes of 5°C or more from one day to the next, for the months of September and October. The nature of the forecasting challenge during the period of the Olympic and Paralympic Games to be held in Sydney in the year 2000 will be described as a special application. The international importance of the accurate prediction of all types of significant weather phenomena during this period has been recognized by the World Meteorological Organisation's Commission for Atmospheric Science. The first World Weather Research Program forecast demonstration project is to be established in the Sydney Office of the Bureau of Meteorology over this period in order to test the ability of existing systems to predict such phenomena. The second part of this study investigates two case studies from the Olympic months in which there were both abrupt temperature rises and falls over a 4-day interval. Currently available high resolution numerical weather prediction systems are found to have significant skill several days ahead in predicting a large amount of the detail of these events, provided they are run at an appropriate resolution. The limitations of these systems are also discussed, with areas requiring further development being identified if the desired levels of accuracy of predictions are to be reliably delivered. Differences between the predictability of sudden temperature rises and sudden temperature falls are also explored.

Global Observations and Understanding of the General Circulation of the Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The workshop was organized to: (1) assess the ability to obtain ocean data on a global scale that could profoundly change our understanding of the circulation; (2) identify the primary and secondary elements needed to conduct a World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE); (3) if the ability is achievable, to determine what the U.S. role in such an experiment should be; and (4) outline the steps necessary to assure that an appropriate program is conducted. The consensus of the workshop was that a World Ocean Circulation Experiment appears feasible, worthwhile, and timely. Participants did agree that such a program should have the overall goal of understanding the general circulation of the global ocean well enough to be able to predict ocean response and feedback to long-term changes in the atmosphere. The overall goal, specific objectives, and recommendations for next steps in planning such an experiment are included.

The WFIRST Interim Design Reference Mission: Capabilities, Constraints, and Open Questions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kruk, Jeffrey W.

2012-01-01

The Project Office and Science Definition Team for the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) are in the midst of a pre-Phase A study to establish a Design Reference Mission (DRM). An Interim report was released in June 2011, with a final report due later in 2012. The predicted performance of the Interim DRM Observatory will be described, including optical quality, observing efficiency, and sensitivity for representative observing scenarios. Observing constraints and other limitations on performance will also be presented, with an emphasis on potential Guest Observer programs. Finally, a brief status update will be provided on open trade studies of interest to the scientific community. The final DRM may differ from the Interim DRM presented here. However, the underlying requirements of the scientific programs are not expected to change, hence the capabilities of the IDRM are likely to be maintained even if the implementation changes in significant ways.

The influence of maternal health literacy and child’s age on participation in social welfare programs

PubMed Central

Pati, Susmita; Siewert, Elizabeth; Wong, Angie T.; Bhatt, Suraj K.; Calixte, Rose E.; Cnaan, Avital

2013-01-01

Objective To determine the influence of maternal health literacy and child’s age on participation in social welfare programs benefiting children. Methods In a longitudinal prospective cohort study of 560 Medicaid-eligible mother-infant dyads recruited in Philadelphia, maternal health literacy was assessed using the Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults (short version). Participation in social welfare programs (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families [TANF], Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program [SNAP], Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children [WIC], child care subsidy, and public housing) was self-reported at child’s birth, and at the 6, 12, 18, 24 month follow-up interviews. Generalized estimating equations quantified the strength of maternal health literacy as an estimator of program participation. Results The mothers were primarily African-Americans (83%), single (87%), with multiple children (62%). Nearly 24% of the mothers had inadequate or marginal health literacy. Children whose mothers had inadequate health literacy were less likely to receive child care subsidy (adjusted OR= 0.54, 95% CI: 0.34–0.85) than children whose mothers had adequate health literacy. Health literacy was not a significant predictor for TANF, SNAP, WIC or housing assistance. The predicted probability for participation in all programs decreased from birth to 24 months. Most notably, predicted WIC participation declined rapidly after age one. Conclusions During the first 24 months, mothers with inadequate health literacy could benefit from simplified or facilitated child care subsidy application processes. Targeted outreach and enrollment efforts conducted by social welfare programs need to take into account the changing needs of families as children age. PMID:23990157

Land-Use Analysis and Simulated Effects of Land-Use Change and Aggregate Mining on Groundwater Flow in the South Platte River Valley, Brighton to Fort Lupton, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.R.; Mladinich, C.S.; Langer, W.H.; Daniels, J.S.

2010-01-01

Land use in the South Platte River valley between the cities of Brighton and Fort Lupton, Colo., is undergoing change as urban areas expand, and the extent of aggregate mining in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area is increasing as the demand for aggregate grows in response to urban development. To improve understanding of land-use change and the potential effects of land-use change and aggregate mining on groundwater flow, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the cities of Brighton and Fort Lupton, analyzed socioeconomic and land-use trends and constructed a numerical groundwater flow model of the South Platte alluvial aquifer in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area. The numerical groundwater flow model was used to simulate (1) steady-state hydrologic effects of predicted land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040, (2) transient cumulative hydrologic effects of the potential extent of reclaimed aggregate pits in 2020 and 2040, (3) transient hydrologic effects of actively dewatered aggregate pits, and (4) effects of different hypothetical pit spacings and configurations on groundwater levels. The SLEUTH (Slope, Land cover, Exclusion, Urbanization, Transportation, and Hillshade) urban-growth modeling program was used to predict the extent of urban area in 2020 and 2040. Wetlands in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area were mapped as part of the study, and mapped wetland locations and areas of riparian herbaceous vegetation previously mapped by the Colorado Division of Wildlife were compared to simulation results to indicate areas where wetlands or riparian herbaceous vegetation might be affected by groundwater-level changes resulting from land-use change or aggregate mining. Analysis of land-use conditions in 1957, 1977, and 2000 indicated that the general distribution of irrigated land and non-irrigated land remained similar from 1957 to 2000, but both land uses decreased as urban area increased. Urban area increased about 165 percent from 1957 to 1977 and about 56 percent from 1977 to 2000 with most urban growth occurring east of Brighton and Fort Lupton and along major transportation corridors. Land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 predicted by the SLEUTH modeling program indicated urban growth will continue to develop primarily east of Brighton and Fort Lupton and along major transportation routes, but substantial urban growth also is predicted south and west of Brighton. Steady-state simulations of the hydrologic effects of predicted land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 indicated groundwater levels declined less than 2 feet relative to simulated groundwater levels in 2000. Groundwater levels declined most where irrigated land was converted to urban area and least where non-irrigated land was converted to urban area. Simulated groundwater-level declines resulting from land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 are not predicted to substantially affect wetlands or riparian herbaceous vegetation in the study area because the declines are small and wetlands and riparian herbaceous vegetation generally are not located where simulated declines occur. See Report PDF for unabridged abstract.

Effects of breakpoint changes on carbapenem susceptibility rates of Enterobacteriaceae: Results from the SENTRY Antimicrobial Surveillance Program, United States, 2008 to 2012

PubMed Central

Rennie, Robert P; Jones, Ronald N

2014-01-01

In the absence of clinical resistance, breakpoints for many antimicrobial agents are often set high. Clinical failures following use of the agents over time requires re-evaluation of breakpoints. This is based on patient response, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic information and in vitro minimal inhibitory concentration data. Data from the SENTRY Antimicrobial Surveillance Program has shown that Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute breakpoint changes for carbapenems that occurred between 2008 and 2012 in North America have resulted in decreased levels of susceptibility for some species. In particular, reduced susceptibility to imipenem was observed for Proteus mirabilis (35%) and Morganella morganii (80%). Minor decreases in susceptibility were also noted for Enterobacter species with ertapenem (5%) and imipenem (4.3%), and Serratia species with imipenem (6.4%). No significant decreases in susceptibility were observed for meropenem following the breakpoint changes. There were no earlier breakpoints established for doripenem. Very few of these Enterobacteriaceae produce carbapenamase enzymes; therefore, the clinical significance of these changes has not yet been clearly determined. In conclusion, ongoing surveillance studies with in vitro minimum inhibitory concentration data are essential in predicting the need for breakpoint changes and in identifying the impact of such changes on the percent susceptibility of different species. PMID:25371693

Commitment to Change and Challenges to Implementing Changes After Workplace-Based Assessment Rater Training.

PubMed

Kogan, Jennifer R; Conforti, Lisa N; Yamazaki, Kenji; Iobst, William; Holmboe, Eric S

2017-03-01

Faculty development for clinical faculty who assess trainees is necessary to improve assessment quality and impor tant for competency-based education. Little is known about what faculty plan to do differently after training. This study explored the changes faculty intended to make after workplace-based assessment rater training, their ability to implement change, predictors of change, and barriers encountered. In 2012, 45 outpatient internal medicine faculty preceptors (who supervised residents) from 26 institutions participated in rater training. They completed a commitment to change form listing up to five commitments and ranked (on a 1-5 scale) their motivation for and anticipated difficulty implementing each change. Three months later, participants were interviewed about their ability to implement change and barriers encountered. The authors used logistic regression to examine predictors of change. Of 191 total commitments, the most common commitments focused on what faculty would change about their own teaching (57%) and increasing direct observation (31%). Of the 183 commitments for which follow-up data were available, 39% were fully implemented, 40% were partially implemented, and 20% were not implemented. Lack of time/competing priorities was the most commonly cited barrier. Higher initial motivation (odds ratio [OR] 2.02; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14, 3.57) predicted change. As anticipated difficulty increased, implementation became less likely (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.49, 0.93). While higher baseline motivation predicted change, multiple system-level barriers undermined ability to implement change. Rater-training faculty development programs should address how faculty motivation and organizational barriers interact and influence ability to change.

Climatic crystal balls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

What do anchovy and coffee prices have in common? They both are influenced by weather patterns. And so are a lot of other industries in the world of commodities. A new report from the National Research Council says it's time to protect these economic interests. The report outlines a new 15-year global research program that would help scientists make better seasonal and interannual climate predictions. Called the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System or GOALS, the new program would be an extension of the decade-long international Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, which comes to an end this year. Besides studying the climatic effects of tropical phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the program would expand these types of studies to Earth's higher latitudes and to additional physical processes, such as the effects of changes in upper ocean currents, soil moisture, vegetation, and land, snow, and sea-ice cover, among others.

Post-game analysis: An initial experiment for heuristic-based resource management in concurrent systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Jerry C.

1987-01-01

In concurrent systems, a major responsibility of the resource management system is to decide how the application program is to be mapped onto the multi-processor. Instead of using abstract program and machine models, a generate-and-test framework known as 'post-game analysis' that is based on data gathered during program execution is proposed. Each iteration consists of (1) (a simulation of) an execution of the program; (2) analysis of the data gathered; and (3) the proposal of a new mapping that would have a smaller execution time. These heuristics are applied to predict execution time changes in response to small perturbations applied to the current mapping. An initial experiment was carried out using simple strategies on 'pipeline-like' applications. The results obtained from four simple strategies demonstrated that for this kind of application, even simple strategies can produce acceptable speed-up with a small number of iterations.

The U.S. Geological Survey Land Remote Sensing Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2007-01-01

The fundamental goals of the U.S. Geological Survey's Land Remote Sens-ing (LRS) Program are to provide the Federal Government and the public with a primary source of remotely sensed data and applications and to be a leader in defining the future of land remote sensing, nationally and internationally. Remotely sensed data provide information that enhance the understand-ing of ecosystems and the capabilities for predicting ecosystem change. The data promote an understanding of the role of the environment and wildlife in human health issues, the requirements for disaster response, the effects of climate variability, and the availability of energy and mineral resources. Also, as land satellite systems acquire global coverage, the program coordinates a network of international receiving stations and users of the data. It is the responsibility of the program to assure that data from land imaging satellites, airborne photography, radar, and other technologies are available to the national and global science communities.

Learning and adaptation in the management of waterfowl harvests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.

2011-01-01

A formal framework for the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests was adopted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1995. The process admits competing models of waterfowl population dynamics and harvest impacts, and relies on model averaging to compute optimal strategies for regulating harvest. Model weights, reflecting the relative ability of the alternative models to predict changes in population size, are used in the model averaging and are updated each year based on a comparison of model predictions and observations of population size. Since its inception the adaptive harvest program has focused principally on mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), which constitute a large portion of the U.S. waterfowl harvest. Four competing models, derived from a combination of two survival and two reproductive hypotheses, were originally assigned equal weights. In the last year of available information (2007), model weights favored the weakly density-dependent reproductive hypothesis over the strongly density-dependent one, and the additive mortality hypothesis over the compensatory one. The change in model weights led to a more conservative harvesting policy than what was in effect in the early years of the program. Adaptive harvest management has been successful in many ways, but nonetheless has exposed the difficulties in defining management objectives, in predicting and regulating harvests, and in coping with the tradeoffs inherent in managing multiple waterfowl stocks exposed to a common harvest. The key challenge now facing managers is whether adaptive harvest management as an institution can be sufficiently adaptive, and whether the knowledge and experience gained from the process can be reflected in higher-level policy decisions.

Development of a predictive program for Vibrio parahaemolyticus growth under various environmental conditions.

PubMed

Fujikawa, Hiroshi; Kimura, Bon; Fujii, Tateo

2009-09-01

In this study, we developed a predictive program for Vibrio parahaemolyticus growth under various environmental conditions. Raw growth data was obtained with a V. parahaemolyticus O3:K6 strain cultured at a variety of broth temperatures, pH, and salt concentrations. Data were analyzed with our logistic model and the parameter values of the model were analyzed with polynomial equations. A prediction program consisting of the growth model and the polynomial equations was then developed. After the range of the growth environments was modified, the program successfully predicted the growth for all environments tested. The program could be a useful tool to ensure the bacteriological safety of seafood.

Near-roadway monitoring of vehicle emissions as a function of mode of operation for light-duty vehicles.

PubMed

Wen, Dongqi; Zhai, Wenjuan; Xiang, Sheng; Hu, Zhice; Wei, Tongchuan; Noll, Kenneth E

2017-11-01

Determination of the effect of vehicle emissions on air quality near roadways is important because vehicles are a major source of air pollution. A near-roadway monitoring program was undertaken in Chicago between August 4 and October 30, 2014, to measure ultrafine particles, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, traffic volume and speed, and wind direction and speed. The objective of this study was to develop a method to relate short-term changes in traffic mode of operation to air quality near roadways using data averaged over 5-min intervals to provide a better understanding of the processes controlling air pollution concentrations near roadways. Three different types of data analysis are provided to demonstrate the type of results that can be obtained from a near-roadway sampling program based on 5-min measurements: (1) development of vehicle emission factors (EFs) for ultrafine particles as a function of vehicle mode of operation, (2) comparison of measured and modeled CO 2 concentrations, and (3) application of dispersion models to determine concentrations near roadways. EFs for ultrafine particles are developed that are a function of traffic volume and mode of operation (free flow and congestion) for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) under real-world conditions. Two air quality models-CALINE4 (California Line Source Dispersion Model, version 4) and AERMOD (American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model)-are used to predict the ultrafine particulate concentrations near roadways for comparison with measured concentrations. When using CALINE4 to predict air quality levels in the mixing cell, changes in surface roughness and stability class have no effect on the predicted concentrations. However, when using AERMOD to predict air quality in the mixing cell, changes in surface roughness have a significant impact on the predicted concentrations. The paper provides emission factors (EFs) that are a function of traffic volume and mode of operation (free flow and congestion) for LDVs under real-world conditions. The good agreement between monitoring and modeling results indicates that high-resolution, simultaneous measurements of air quality and meteorological and traffic conditions can be used to determine real-world, fleet-wide vehicle EFs as a function of vehicle mode of operation under actual driving conditions.

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) in the IPY 2007-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennicutt, M. C.; Wilson, T. J.; Summerhayes, C.

2005-05-01

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) initiates, develops, and coordinates international scientific research in the Antarctic region. SCAR is assuming a leadership position in the IPY primarily through its five major Scientific Research Programs; ACE, SALE, EBA, AGCS, and ICESTAR; which will be briefly described.Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE) promotes the exchange of data and ideas between research groups focusing on the evolution of Antarctica's climate system and ice sheet. The program will: (1) quantitatively assess the climate and glacial history of Antarctica; (2) identify the processes which govern Antarctic change and feed back around the globe; (3) improve our ability to model past changes in Antarctica; and (4)document past change to predict future change in Antarctica. Subglacial Antarctic Lake Environments (SALE) promotes, facilitates, and champions cooperation and collaboration in the exploration and study of subglacial environments in Antarctica. SALE intends to understand the complex interplay of biological, geological, chemical, glaciological, and physical processes within subglacial lake environments through coordinated international research teams. Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic (EBA) will use a suite of modern techniques and interdisciplinary approaches, to explore the evolutionary history of selected modern Antarctic biota, examine how modern biological diversity in the Antarctic influences the way present-day ecosystems function, and thereby predict how the biota may respond to future environmental change. Antarctica and the Global Climate System (AGCS) will investigate the nature of the atmospheric and oceanic linkages between the climate of the Antarctic and the rest of the Earth system, and the mechanisms involved therein. A combination of modern instrumented records of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and the climate signals held within ice cores will be used to understand past and future climate variability and change in the Antarctic as a result of natural and anthropogenic forcings over the last 100,000 years. Interhemispheric Conjugacy Effects in Solar-Terrestrial and Aeronomy Research (ICESTAR) will study the interactions between and collective behavior of the many component parts of the Earth system, including the interaction between the natural environment and human society. Objectives include specification and prediction of the state of the system and assimilation and integration of data from disparate sources to understand the complex geospace environment.

Space shuttle main engine plume radiation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reardon, J. E.; Lee, Y. C.

1978-01-01

The methods are described which are used in predicting the thermal radiation received by space shuttles, from the plumes of the main engines. Radiation to representative surface locations were predicted using the NASA gaseous plume radiation GASRAD program. The plume model is used with the radiative view factor (RAVFAC) program to predict sea level radiation at specified body points. The GASRAD program is described along with the predictions. The RAVFAC model is also discussed.

Computer programs to predict induced effects of jets exhausting into a crossflow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perkins, S. C., Jr.; Mendenhall, M. R.

1984-01-01

A user's manual for two computer programs was developed to predict the induced effects of jets exhausting into a crossflow. Program JETPLT predicts pressures induced on an infinite flat plate by a jet exhausting at angles to the plate and Program JETBOD, in conjunction with a panel code, predicts pressures induced on a body of revolution by a jet exhausting normal to the surface. Both codes use a potential model of the jet and adjacent surface with empirical corrections for the viscous or nonpotential effects. This program manual contains a description of the use of both programs, instructions for preparation of input, descriptions of the output, limitations of the codes, and sample cases. In addition, procedures to extend both codes to include additional empirical correlations are described.

Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua).

PubMed

Holt, Rebecca E; Jørgensen, Christian

2014-01-01

Climate change influences the marine environment, with ocean warming being the foremost driving factor governing changes in the physiology and ecology of fish. At the individual level, increasing temperature influences bioenergetics and numerous physiological and life-history processes, which have consequences for the population level and beyond. We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model that predicts temperature-induced adaptations for life histories and behaviour for the North-East Arctic stock (NEA) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to climate warming. The key constraint is temperature-dependent respiratory physiology, and the model includes a number of trade-offs that reflect key physiological and ecological processes. Dynamic programming is used to find an evolutionarily optimal strategy of foraging and energy allocation that maximizes expected lifetime reproductive output given constraints from physiology and ecology. The optimal strategy is then simulated in a population, where survival, foraging behaviour, growth, maturation and reproduction emerge. Using current forcing, the model reproduces patterns of growth, size-at-age, maturation, gonad production and natural mortality for NEA cod. The predicted climate responses are positive for this stock; under a 2°C warming, the model predicted increased growth rates and a larger asymptotic size. Maturation age was unaffected, but gonad weight was predicted to more than double. Predictions for a wider range of temperatures, from 2 to 7°C, show that temperature responses were gradual; fish were predicted to grow faster and increase reproductive investment at higher temperatures. An emergent pattern of higher risk acceptance and increased foraging behaviour was also predicted. Our results provide important insight into the effects of climate warming on NEA cod by revealing the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change. We show how temperature-induced adaptations of behaviour and several life-history traits are not only mediated by physiology but also by trade-offs with survival, which has consequences for conservation physiology.

Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

PubMed Central

Holt, Rebecca E.; Jørgensen, Christian

2014-01-01

Climate change influences the marine environment, with ocean warming being the foremost driving factor governing changes in the physiology and ecology of fish. At the individual level, increasing temperature influences bioenergetics and numerous physiological and life-history processes, which have consequences for the population level and beyond. We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model that predicts temperature-induced adaptations for life histories and behaviour for the North-East Arctic stock (NEA) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to climate warming. The key constraint is temperature-dependent respiratory physiology, and the model includes a number of trade-offs that reflect key physiological and ecological processes. Dynamic programming is used to find an evolutionarily optimal strategy of foraging and energy allocation that maximizes expected lifetime reproductive output given constraints from physiology and ecology. The optimal strategy is then simulated in a population, where survival, foraging behaviour, growth, maturation and reproduction emerge. Using current forcing, the model reproduces patterns of growth, size-at-age, maturation, gonad production and natural mortality for NEA cod. The predicted climate responses are positive for this stock; under a 2°C warming, the model predicted increased growth rates and a larger asymptotic size. Maturation age was unaffected, but gonad weight was predicted to more than double. Predictions for a wider range of temperatures, from 2 to 7°C, show that temperature responses were gradual; fish were predicted to grow faster and increase reproductive investment at higher temperatures. An emergent pattern of higher risk acceptance and increased foraging behaviour was also predicted. Our results provide important insight into the effects of climate warming on NEA cod by revealing the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change. We show how temperature-induced adaptations of behaviour and several life-history traits are not only mediated by physiology but also by trade-offs with survival, which has consequences for conservation physiology. PMID:27293671

High calorie, low nutrient food/beverage intake and video gaming in children as potential signals for addictive behavior.

PubMed

Pentz, Mary Ann; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Chou, Chih Ping; Riggs, Nathaniel R

2011-12-01

Little is known about the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors in childhood that may signal later addictive behavior. Using a survey, this study evaluated high calorie, low nutrient HCLN intake and video gaming behaviors in 964 fourth grade children over 18 months, with stress, sensation-seeking, inhibitory control, grades, perceived safety of environment, and demographic variables as predictors. SEM and growth curve analyses supported a co-occurrence model with some support for addiction specificity. Male gender, free/reduced lunch, low perceived safety and low inhibitory control independently predicted both gaming and HCLN intake. Ethnicity and low stress predicted HCLN. The findings raise questions about whether living in some impoverished neighborhoods may contribute to social isolation characterized by staying indoors, and HCLN intake and video gaming as compensatory behaviors. Future prevention programs could include skills training for inhibitory control, combined with changes in the built environment that increase safety, e.g., implementing Safe Routes to School Programs.

Implementing effective policy in a national mental health re-engagement program for Veterans

PubMed Central

Smith, Shawna N.; Lai, Zongshan; Almirall, Daniel; Goodrich, David E.; Abraham, Kristen M.; Nord, Kristina M.; Kilbourne, Amy M.

2016-01-01

Policy is a powerful motivator of clinical change, but implementation success can depend on organizational characteristics. This paper used validated measures of organizational resources, culture and climate to predict uptake of a nationwide VA policy aimed at implementing Re-Engage, a brief care management program that re-establishes contact with Veterans with serious mental illness lost to care. Patient care databases were used to identify 2,738 Veterans lost to care. Local Recovery Coordinators (LRCs) were to update disposition for 2,738 Veterans at 158 VA facilities and, as appropriate, facilitate a return to care. Multivariable regression assessed organizational culture and climate as predictors of early policy compliance (via LRC presence) and uptake at six months. Higher composite climate and culture scores were associated with higher odds of having a designated LRC, but were not predictive of higher uptake. Sites with LRCs had significantly higher rates of updated documentation than sites without LRCs. PMID:27668352

High Calorie, Low Nutrient Food/Beverage Intake and Video Gaming in Children as Potential Signals for Addictive Behavior

PubMed Central

Pentz, Mary Ann; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Chou, Chih Ping; Riggs, Nathaniel R.

2011-01-01

Little is known about the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors in childhood that may signal later addictive behavior. Using a survey, this study evaluated high calorie, low nutrient HCLN intake and video gaming behaviors in 964 fourth grade children over 18 months, with stress, sensation-seeking, inhibitory control, grades, perceived safety of environment, and demographic variables as predictors. SEM and growth curve analyses supported a co-occurrence model with some support for addiction specificity. Male gender, free/reduced lunch, low perceived safety and low inhibitory control independently predicted both gaming and HCLN intake. Ethnicity and low stress predicted HCLN. The findings raise questions about whether living in some impoverished neighborhoods may contribute to social isolation characterized by staying indoors, and HCLN intake and video gaming as compensatory behaviors. Future prevention programs could include skills training for inhibitory control, combined with changes in the built environment that increase safety, e.g., implementing Safe Routes to School Programs. PMID:22408581

Forecasting Caspian Sea level changes using satellite altimetry data (June 1992-December 2013) based on evolutionary support vector regression algorithms and gene expression programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imani, Moslem; You, Rey-Jer; Kuo, Chung-Yen

2014-10-01

Sea level forecasting at various time intervals is of great importance in water supply management. Evolutionary artificial intelligence (AI) approaches have been accepted as an appropriate tool for modeling complex nonlinear phenomena in water bodies. In the study, we investigated the ability of two AI techniques: support vector machine (SVM), which is mathematically well-founded and provides new insights into function approximation, and gene expression programming (GEP), which is used to forecast Caspian Sea level anomalies using satellite altimetry observations from June 1992 to December 2013. SVM demonstrates the best performance in predicting Caspian Sea level anomalies, given the minimum root mean square error (RMSE = 0.035) and maximum coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.96) during the prediction periods. A comparison between the proposed AI approaches and the cascade correlation neural network (CCNN) model also shows the superiority of the GEP and SVM models over the CCNN.

Scaling analysis applied to the NORVEX code development and thermal energy flight experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skarda, J. Raymond Lee; Namkoong, David; Darling, Douglas

1991-01-01

A scaling analysis is used to study the dominant flow processes that occur in molten phase change material (PCM) under 1 g and microgravity conditions. Results of the scaling analysis are applied to the development of the NORVEX (NASA Oak Ridge Void Experiment) computer program and the preparation of the Thermal Energy Storage (TES) flight experiment. The NORVEX computer program which is being developed to predict melting and freezing with void formation in a 1 g or microgravity environment of the PCM is described. NORVEX predictions are compared with the scaling and similarity results. The approach to be used to validate NORVEX with TES flight data is also discussed. Similarity and scaling show that the inertial terms must be included as part of the momentum equation in either the 1 g or microgravity environment (a creeping flow assumption is invalid). A 10(exp -4) environment was found to be a suitable microgravity environment for the proposed PCM.

Performance of a parallel code for the Euler equations on hypercube computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barszcz, Eric; Chan, Tony F.; Jesperson, Dennis C.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.

1990-01-01

The performance of hypercubes were evaluated on a computational fluid dynamics problem and the parallel environment issues were considered that must be addressed, such as algorithm changes, implementation choices, programming effort, and programming environment. The evaluation focuses on a widely used fluid dynamics code, FLO52, which solves the two dimensional steady Euler equations describing flow around the airfoil. The code development experience is described, including interacting with the operating system, utilizing the message-passing communication system, and code modifications necessary to increase parallel efficiency. Results from two hypercube parallel computers (a 16-node iPSC/2, and a 512-node NCUBE/ten) are discussed and compared. In addition, a mathematical model of the execution time was developed as a function of several machine and algorithm parameters. This model accurately predicts the actual run times obtained and is used to explore the performance of the code in interesting but yet physically realizable regions of the parameter space. Based on this model, predictions about future hypercubes are made.

Predicting treatment noncompliance among criminal justice-mandated clients: a theoretical and empirical exploration.

PubMed

Sung, Hung-En; Belenko, Steven; Feng, Li; Tabachnick, Carrie

2004-01-01

Compliance with therapeutic regimens constitutes an important but infrequently studied precursor of treatment engagement and is a necessary condition of successful treatment. This study builds on recent treatment process research and provides a theory-driven analysis of treatment compliance. Five hypotheses are formulated to predict treatment noncompliance among criminal justice-mandated clients. These hypotheses tap different determinants of treatment progress, including physical prime, supportive social network, conventional social involvement, treatment motivation, and risk-taking propensity. Data from 150 addicted felons participating in a diversion program are analyzed to test the hypotheses. Predictors related to these hypotheses correctly identify 58% of the fully compliant clients and 55-88% of the noncompliant clients. Most hypotheses are at least partially corroborated and a few strong correlates emerge across analyses. Clients in their physical prime, those with poorer social support, and those lacking internal desires for change were found especially likely to violate treatment program rules. Clinical implications are discussed.

Computing Thermal Effects of Cavitation in Cryogenic Liquids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hosangadi, Ashvin; Ahuja, Vineet; Dash, Sanford M.

2005-01-01

A computer program implements a numerical model of thermal effects of cavitation in cryogenic fluids. The model and program were developed for use in designing and predicting the performances of turbopumps for cryogenic fluids. Prior numerical models used for this purpose do not account for either the variability of properties of cryogenic fluids or the thermal effects (especially, evaporative cooling) involved in cavitation. It is important to account for both because in a cryogenic fluid, the thermal effects of cavitation are substantial, and the cavitation characteristics are altered by coupling between the variable fluid properties and the phase changes involved in cavitation. The present model accounts for both thermal effects and variability of properties by incorporating a generalized representation of the properties of cryogenic fluids into a generalized compressible-fluid formulation for a cavitating pump. The model has been extensively validated for liquid nitrogen and liquid hydrogen. Using the available data on the properties of these fluids, the model has been shown to predict accurate temperature-depression values.

Inlet Flow Control and Prediction Technologies for Embedded Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McMillan, Michelle L.; Gissen, Abe; Vukasinovic, Bojan; Lakebrink, Matthew T.; Glezer, Ari; Mani, Mori; Mace, James

2010-01-01

Fail-safe inlet flow control may enable high-speed cruise efficiency, low noise signature, and reduced fuel-burn goals for hybrid wing-body aircraft. The objectives of this program are to develop flow control and prediction methodologies for boundary-layer ingesting (BLI) inlets used in these aircraft. This report covers the second of a three year program. The approach integrates experiments and numerical simulations. Both passive and active flow-control devices were tested in a small-scale wind tunnel. Hybrid actuation approaches, combining a passive microvane and active synthetic jet, were tested in various geometric arrangements. Detailed flow measurements were taken to provide insight into the flow physics. Results of the numerical simulations were correlated against experimental data. The sensitivity of results to grid resolution and turbulence models was examined. Aerodynamic benefits from microvanes and microramps were assessed when installed in an offset BLI inlet. Benefits were quantified in terms of recovery and distortion changes. Microvanes were more effective than microramps at improving recovery and distortion.

Flowfield analysis for successive oblique shock wave-turbulent boundary layer interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, C. C.; Childs, M. E.

1976-01-01

A computation procedure is described for predicting the flowfields which develop when successive interactions between oblique shock waves and a turbulent boundary layer occur. Such interactions may occur, for example, in engine inlets for supersonic aircraft. Computations are carried out for axisymmetric internal flows at M 3.82 and 2.82. The effect of boundary layer bleed is considered for the M 2.82 flow. A control volume analysis is used to predict changes in the flow field across the interactions. Two bleed flow models have been considered. A turbulent boundary layer program is used to compute changes in the boundary layer between the interactions. The results given are for flows with two shock wave interactions and for bleed at the second interaction site. In principle the method described may be extended to account for additional interactions. The predicted results are compared with measured results and are shown to be in good agreement when the bleed flow rate is low (on the order of 3% of the boundary layer mass flow), or when there is no bleed. As the bleed flow rate is increased, differences between the predicted and measured results become larger. Shortcomings of the bleed flow models at higher bleed flow rates are discussed.

Predictability of physiological testing and the role of maturation in talent identification for adolescent team sports.

PubMed

Pearson, D T; Naughton, G A; Torode, M

2006-08-01

Entrepreneurial marketing of sport increases demands on sport development officers to identify talented individuals for specialist development at the youngest possible age. Talent identification results in the streamlining of resources to produce optimal returns from a sports investment. However, the process of talent identification for team sports is complex and success prediction is imperfect. The aim of this review is to describe existing practices in physiological tests used for talent identification in team sports and discuss the impact of maturity-related differences on the long term outcomes particularly for male participants. Maturation is a major confounding variable in talent identification during adolescence. A myriad of hormonal changes during puberty results in physical and physiological characteristics important for sporting performance. Significant changes during puberty make the prediction of adult performance difficult from adolescent data. Furthermore, for talent identification programs to succeed, valid and reliable testing procedures must be accepted and implemented in a range of performance-related categories. Limited success in scientifically based talent identification is evident in a range of team sports. Genetic advances challenge the ethics of talent identification in adolescent sport. However, the environment remains a significant component of success prediction in sport. Considerations for supporting talented young male athletes are discussed.

Processes Understanding of Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prömmel, Kerstin; Cubasch, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The realistic representation of decadal climate variability in the models is essential for the quality of decadal climate predictions. Therefore, the understanding of those processes leading to decadal climate variability needs to be improved. Several of these processes are already included in climate models but their importance has not yet completely been clarified. The simulation of other processes requires sometimes a higher resolution of the model or an extension by additional subsystems. This is addressed within one module of the German research program "MiKlip II - Decadal Climate Predictions" (http://www.fona-miklip.de/en/) with a focus on the following processes. Stratospheric processes and their impact on the troposphere are analysed regarding the climate response to aerosol perturbations caused by volcanic eruptions and the stratospheric decadal variability due to solar forcing, climate change and ozone recovery. To account for the interaction between changing ozone concentrations and climate a computationally efficient ozone chemistry module is developed and implemented in the MiKlip prediction system. The ocean variability and air-sea interaction are analysed with a special focus on the reduction of the North Atlantic cold bias. In addition, the predictability of the oceanic carbon uptake with a special emphasis on the underlying mechanism is investigated. This addresses a combination of physical, biological and chemical processes.

Search for Functional Flexible Regions in the G-protein Family: New Reading of the FoldUnfold Program.

PubMed

Galzitskaya, Oxana; Deryusheva, Eugenia; Machulin, Andrey; Nemashkalova, Ekaterina; Glyakina, Anna

2018-06-21

High prediction accuracy of flexible loops in different protein families is a challenge because of the crucial functions associated with these regions. Results of the currently available programs for prediction of loops vary from protein to protein. For prediction of flexible regions in the G-domain for 23 representatives of G-proteins with the known 3D structure we have used eight programs. The results of predictions demonstrate that the FoldUnfold program predicts better loop positions than the PONDR, RОNN, DisEMBL, IUPred, GlobPlot 2, FoldIndex, and MobiDB programs. When classifying the predicted loops (rigid/flexible) according to the Debye-Waller fluctuation factors, our data reveal the existing weak correlation between the B-factors and the average number of closed residues according to the FoldUnfold program; the percentage of overlapping characteristics (residue fold/unfold status) of the protein residues from the two methods is about 60-70%. According to the FoldUnfold program, for G-proteins with the posttranslational modifications, the surrounding binding site residues by disordered-promoting glycine and alanine residues conduces to a more flexible position of the binding sites for fatty acid, while methionine, cysteine and isoleucine residues provide more rigid binding sites. Thus, our research demonstrates additional possibilities of the FoldUnfold program for prediction of flexible regions and characteristics of individual residues in a different protein family. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

The Visceral Adiposity Index: Relationship with cardiometabolic risk factors in obese and overweight postmenopausal women--a MONET group study.

PubMed

Elisha, Belinda; Messier, Virginie; Karelis, Antony; Coderre, Lise; Bernard, Sophie; Prud'homme, Denis; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi

2013-08-01

A recent study suggested visceral adipose index (VAI) as an indicator of adipose tissue distribution and function associated with cardiometabolic risk. We aim to examine the association between VAI and visceral adipose tissue (VAT), insulin sensitivity, and a large panel of associated cardiometabolic risk factors, and to determine if changes in VAI after weight loss intervention will reflect changes in VAT. We performed a secondary analysis using the data of 99 overweight and postmenopausal women that completed a 6-month weight loss program (Montreal Ottawa New Emerging Team Study). VAI was calculated according to the equation by Amato et al. (2010; Diabetes Care, 33(4):920-922). At baseline, VAI was associated with VAT (r = 0.284, p < 0.01) but not with subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) while body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were significantly related to both. BMI and WC demonstrated significantly stronger predictive value of VAT accumulation (area under the curve = 0.84 and 0.86, respectively) than VAI (area under the curve = 0.61; p < 0.01). However, VAT, BMI, WC, and VAI were similarly related to fasting insulin and glucose disposal rates. After a 6-month weight loss program, VAI decreased significantly and similarly in both intervention groups (p < 0.01). In addition, the percentage of change in VAI showed the significantly weakest correlation (r = 0.25) with the percentage of change in VAT than BMI (r = 0.56; p < 0.01 for r comparisons) and was not a significant predictor of interindividual percentage of change in VAT while BMI accounted for 33.7%. VAI is a weak indicator of VAT function and did not predict changes in VAT after weight loss. Furthermore, this index was not superior to BMI or WC. However, VAI is a good indicator of metabolic syndrome.

An assessment of health hazard/health risk appraisal.

PubMed Central

Wagner, E H; Beery, W L; Schoenbach, V J; Graham, R M

1982-01-01

A state-of-the-art review of a widely-used health promotion technique, the health hazard/health risk appraisal (HHA/HRA), was conducted. The review included preparing a 212-item annotated bibliography, compiling an inventory of 217 programs that have used HHA/HRA, holding discussions with HHA/HRA developers and users, conducting formal site visits to 15 HHA/HRA programs, and consultation with experts on epidemiology, biostatistics, and behavioral science as well as developers and users of HHA/HRA. Programs use HHA/HRA primarily as a promotional device, as a tool for structuring education about health-related behaviors, and as a motivational device for stimulating behavioral change. The scientific basis for HHA/HRA risk predictions is problematic, but their arithmetic imprecision is of less concern than insufficiency of the scientific evidence for certain behavioral recommendations, and inaccuracies in client-supplied data. Widely-held beliefs in HHA/HRA's efficacy for motivating behavioral change cannot be substantiated from available evidence, nor can the assumed absence of adverse effects. The importance of this particular health promotion technique appears to have been exaggerated. PMID:7065313

Aircraft Noise Prediction Program theoretical manual: Propeller aerodynamics and noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zorumski, W. E. (Editor); Weir, D. S. (Editor)

1986-01-01

The prediction sequence used in the aircraft noise prediction program (ANOPP) is described. The elements of the sequence are called program modules. The first group of modules analyzes the propeller geometry, the aerodynamics, including both potential and boundary-layer flow, the propeller performance, and the surface loading distribution. This group of modules is based entirely on aerodynamic strip theory. The next group of modules deals with the first group. Predictions of periodic thickness and loading noise are determined with time-domain methods. Broadband noise is predicted by a semiempirical method. Near-field predictions of fuselage surface pressrues include the effects of boundary layer refraction and scattering. Far-field predictions include atmospheric and ground effects.

EPA'S TOXCAST PROGRAM FOR PREDICTING TOXICITY AND PRIORITIZING ENVIRONMENTAL CHEMICALS

EPA Science Inventory

ToxCast is a research program to predict or forecast toxicity by evaluating a broad spectrum of chemicals and effects; physical-chemical properties, predicted bioactivities, HTS and cell-based assays, and genomics. Data will be interpretively linked to known or predicted toxicol...

e-Cow: an animal model that predicts herbage intake, milk yield and live weight change in dairy cows grazing temperate pastures, with and without supplementary feeding.

PubMed

Baudracco, J; Lopez-Villalobos, N; Holmes, C W; Comeron, E A; Macdonald, K A; Barry, T N; Friggens, N C

2012-06-01

This animal simulation model, named e-Cow, represents a single dairy cow at grazing. The model integrates algorithms from three previously published models: a model that predicts herbage dry matter (DM) intake by grazing dairy cows, a mammary gland model that predicts potential milk yield and a body lipid model that predicts genetically driven live weight (LW) and body condition score (BCS). Both nutritional and genetic drives are accounted for in the prediction of energy intake and its partitioning. The main inputs are herbage allowance (HA; kg DM offered/cow per day), metabolisable energy and NDF concentrations in herbage and supplements, supplements offered (kg DM/cow per day), type of pasture (ryegrass or lucerne), days in milk, days pregnant, lactation number, BCS and LW at calving, breed or strain of cow and genetic merit, that is, potential yields of milk, fat and protein. Separate equations are used to predict herbage intake, depending on the cutting heights at which HA is expressed. The e-Cow model is written in Visual Basic programming language within Microsoft Excel®. The model predicts whole-lactation performance of dairy cows on a daily basis, and the main outputs are the daily and annual DM intake, milk yield and changes in BCS and LW. In the e-Cow model, neither herbage DM intake nor milk yield or LW change are needed as inputs; instead, they are predicted by the e-Cow model. The e-Cow model was validated against experimental data for Holstein-Friesian cows with both North American (NA) and New Zealand (NZ) genetics grazing ryegrass-based pastures, with or without supplementary feeding and for three complete lactations, divided into weekly periods. The model was able to predict animal performance with satisfactory accuracy, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.81, 0.76 and 0.62 for herbage DM intake, milk yield and LW change, respectively. Simulations performed with the model showed that it is sensitive to genotype by feeding environment interactions. The e-Cow model tended to overestimate the milk yield of NA genotype cows at low milk yields, while it underestimated the milk yield of NZ genotype cows at high milk yields. The approach used to define the potential milk yield of the cow and equations used to predict herbage DM intake make the model applicable for predictions in countries with temperate pastures.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedrichs, D.R.; Cole, C.R.; Arnett, R.C.

The Hanford Pathline Calculational Program (HPCP) is a numerical model developed to predict the movement of fluid particles from one location to another within the Hanford or similar groundwater systems. As such it can be considered a simple transport model wherein only advective changes are considered. Application of the numerical HPCP to test cases for which semianalytical results are obtainable showed that with reasonable time steps and the grid spacing requirements HPCP give good agreement with the semianalytical solution. The accuracy of the HPCP results is most sensitive in areas near steep or rapidly changing potential gradients and may requiremore » finer grid spacing in those areas than for the groundwater system as a whole. Initial applications of HPCP to the Hanford groundwater flow regime show that significant differences (improvements) in the predictions of fluid particle movement are obtainable with the pathline approach (changing groundwater potential or water table surface) as opposed to the streamline approach (unchanging potential or water table surface) used in past Hanford groundwater analyses. This report documents capability developed for estimating groundwater travel times from the Hanford high-level waste areas to the Columbia River at different water table levels.« less

Development and practical implications of the Exercise Resourcefulness Inventory.

PubMed

Fast, Hilary V; Kennett, Deborah J

2015-05-01

To determine the validity and reliability of the Exercise Resourcefulness Inventory (ERI) designed to assess the self-regulatory strategies used to promote regular exercise. In Study 1, the inventory's relationship with other established scales in the exercise behavior change field was examined. In Study 2, the test-retest reliability and predictive validity of the ERI was established by having participants from Study 1 complete the inventory a second time. Internal consistency, and convergent, discriminant, and concurrent validity were supported in both studies. The test-retest correlation of the ERI was .80. As well, participants scoring higher on the ERI in Study 1 were more likely to be at a higher stage of change in Study 2, and greater increases in exercise resourcefulness over time were predictive of advancement to higher stages of change. ERI is a reliable and valid measure to assess the self-regulatory strategies used to promote regular exercise. Facilitators may want to tailor exercise programs for individuals scoring lower in resourcefulness to prevent them from relapsing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study on the social behavior and social isolation of the elderly Korea.

PubMed

Yi, Eun-Surk; Hwang, Hee-Joung

2015-06-01

This study aimed at presenting what factors are to predict the social isolation of the elderly as an element to prevent the problem of why various matters related to old people are inevitably taking place by carefully examining the meaning of social isolation and the conditions of social isolation that the South Korean senior citizens go through after working on previous studies. This section discusses the results obtained through document analysis. First, the aspects of the elderly's social isolation arising from the changes of the South Korean society are changes of family relationship, the social structure, the economic structure and the culture. Second, the social isolation and social activity of the elderly are problems (suicide, criminals, dementia, depression and medical costs) of the elderly, change trend of the elderly issues related to social isolation and prediction factors that personal and regional. Lastly, as a role and challenges of the field of rehabilitation exercise aimed at resolving social isolation should be vitalized such as the development and provision of various relationship-building programs.

A study on the social behavior and social isolation of the elderly Korea

PubMed Central

Yi, Eun-Surk; Hwang, Hee-Joung

2015-01-01

This study aimed at presenting what factors are to predict the social isolation of the elderly as an element to prevent the problem of why various matters related to old people are inevitably taking place by carefully examining the meaning of social isolation and the conditions of social isolation that the South Korean senior citizens go through after working on previous studies. This section discusses the results obtained through document analysis. First, the aspects of the elderly’s social isolation arising from the changes of the South Korean society are changes of family relationship, the social structure, the economic structure and the culture. Second, the social isolation and social activity of the elderly are problems (suicide, criminals, dementia, depression and medical costs) of the elderly, change trend of the elderly issues related to social isolation and prediction factors that personal and regional. Lastly, as a role and challenges of the field of rehabilitation exercise aimed at resolving social isolation should be vitalized such as the development and provision of various relationship-building programs. PMID:26171377

Modeling and Analysis of the Water Cycle: Seasonal and Event Variability at the Walnut River Research Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, M. A.; Miller, N. L.; Sale, M. J.; Springer, E. P.; Wesely, M. L.; Bashford, K. E.; Conrad, M. E.; Costigan, K. R.; Kemball-Cook, S.; King, A. W.; Klazura, G. E.; Lesht, B. M.; Machavaram, M. V.; Sultan, M.; Song, J.; Washington-Allen, R.

2001-12-01

A multi-laboratory Department of Energy (DOE) team (Argonne National Laboratory, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory) has begun an investigation of hydrometeorological processes at the Whitewater subbasin of the Walnut River Watershed in Kansas. The Whitewater sub-basin is viewed as a DOE long-term hydrologic research watershed and resides within the well-instrumented Atmospheric Radiation Measurement/Cloud Radiation Atmosphere Testbed (ARM/CART) and the proposed Arkansas-Red River regional hydrologic testbed. The focus of this study is the development and evaluation of coupled regional to watershed scale models that simulate atmospheric, land surface, and hydrologic processes as systems with linkages and feedback mechanisms. This pilot is the precursor to the proposed DOE Water Cycle Dynamics Prediction Program. An important new element is the introduction of water isotope budget equations into mesoscale and hydrologic modeling. Two overarching hypotheses are part of this pilot study: (1) Can the predictability of the regional water balance be improved using high-resolution model simulations that are constrained and validated using new water isotope and hydrospheric water measurements? (2) Can water isotopic tracers be used to segregate different pathways through the water cycle and predict a change in regional climate patterns? Initial results of the pilot will be presented along with a description and copies of the proposed DOE Water Cycle Dynamics Prediction Program.

Differentiating progress in a clinical group of fibromyalgia patients during and following a multicomponent treatment program.

PubMed

Van Den Houte, Maaike; Luyckx, Koen; Van Oudenhove, Lukas; Bogaerts, Katleen; Van Diest, Ilse; De Bie, Jozef; Van den Bergh, Omer

2017-07-01

Treatments including multiple nonpharmacological components have beneficial effects on the key symptoms of fibromyalgia, although effects are limited and often do not persist. In this study, we examined different patterns of clinical progress and the dynamic interplay between predictors and outcomes over time. Fibromyalgia patients (N=153; 135 women) followed a multidisciplinary group program spanning 12weeks, aimed at "regaining control over daily functioning". Anxiety, depression, pain coping and kinesiophobia were used as predictor variables. Outcome variables were pain severity, pain-related disability, physical functioning and functional interference. All variables were assessed at 3 moments: on the first and last day of treatment, and 12weeks after the last day of treatment. Overall treatment effects were analyzed using mixed model analyses. Latent class growth analysis identifying different treatment trajectory classes was used to investigate individual differences in treatment effects. Finally, cross-lagged structural equation models were used to investigate the dynamic interplay between predictors and outcomes over time. Only a fourth to a third of the total group showed improvement on the outcome variables. These patients had lower baseline anxiety, depression and kinesiophobia, and improved more on anxiety, depression and kinesiophobia. Physical well-being had a stronger effect on anxiety and depression than vice versa. Physical functioning predicted relative changes in kinesiophobia, while kinesiophobia predicted relative changes in pain-related disability. The results emphasize the importance of tailoring treatments to individual needs in order to improve overall effectiveness of treatment programs. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Comparative study on change in groundwaters of rural and urban areas in Korea: effects of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Sang Woong; Seul Kim, Ye; Kim, Dong Hyun; Kim, Ho Chul; Shin, Min Cheol; Park, Jae Yong; Kim, Heejung; Lee, Jin-Yong

2013-04-01

Groundwater occupies a considerable proportion of the world's water resources and is affected by climate change. It is important to understand how water budget responds to future precipitation variability for sustainable management of groundwater resources. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater resources in the future, it is necessary to not only collect field data but also predict groundwater change using some groundwater numerical modelling. In this study, a relevant climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) was adopted and Visual MODFLOW was used as a main tool for predicting water budget. The predicted precipitation and air temperature data were obtained from Climate Change Information Center (CCIC) of Korea. By using the data on the scenario from 2011 to 2100, the future water budget was calculated using groundwater numerical modelling for both Wonju (WJ: urban area) and Yanggu (YG: rural area) of Gangwon Province in Korea. The model calibration was done by the groundwater level measured at 10 monitoring wells. For the numerical prediction, the groundwater recharge (WJ: 10.1%, YG: 13.3%) was estimated using watertable fluctuation (WTF) method and a concept of threshold precipitation (WJ: 240.5 mm, YG: 363.8 mm) was applied. Consequently, the water levels in both Wonju and Yanggu showed gradually increasing trends and ranged from 3.0 to 10.8 m, from 0.5 to 1.8 m in 2100, respectively. Under annual precipitation fluctuation on the scenario (2011-2100), water budget IN-OUT value (-0.87~1.07 m3/day) in Wonju city gradually increases while that (-0.73~0.46 m3/day) of Yanggu county does not. However, its annual difference is enlarged with year for both areas. The results indicate that securing groundwater resource and its management will be difficult because of frequent annual change of the groundwater storage. This work was supported by Science High School R&E program (No. C1008804-01-01) and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MEST) (No. 2012-0002628).

Predicting Treatment Response in Social Anxiety Disorder From Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging

PubMed Central

Doehrmann, Oliver; Ghosh, Satrajit S.; Polli, Frida E.; Reynolds, Gretchen O.; Horn, Franziska; Keshavan, Anisha; Triantafyllou, Christina; Saygin, Zeynep M.; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Hofmann, Stefan G.; Pollack, Mark; Gabrieli, John D.

2013-01-01

Context Current behavioral measures poorly predict treatment outcome in social anxiety disorder (SAD). To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine neuroimaging-based treatment prediction in SAD. Objective To measure brain activation in patients with SAD as a biomarker to predict subsequent response to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Design Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data were collected prior to CBT intervention. Changes in clinical status were regressed on brain responses and tested for selectivity for social stimuli. Setting Patients were treated with protocol-based CBT at anxiety disorder programs at Boston University or Massachusetts General Hospital and underwent neuroimaging data collection at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Patients Thirty-nine medication-free patients meeting DSM-IV criteria for the generalized subtype of SAD. Interventions Brain responses to angry vs neutral faces or emotional vs neutral scenes were examined with fMRI prior to initiation of CBT. Main Outcome Measures Whole-brain regression analyses with differential fMRI responses for angry vs neutral faces and changes in Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale score as the treatment outcome measure. Results Pretreatment responses significantly predicted subsequent treatment outcome of patients selectively for social stimuli and particularly in regions of higher-order visual cortex. Combining the brain measures with information on clinical severity accounted for more than 40% of the variance in treatment response and substantially exceeded predictions based on clinical measures at baseline. Prediction success was unaffected by testing for potential confounding factors such as depression severity at baseline. Conclusions The results suggest that brain imaging can provide biomarkers that substantially improve predictions for the success of cognitive behavioral interventions and more generally suggest that such biomarkers may offer evidence-based, personalized medicine approaches for optimally selecting among treatment options for a patient. PMID:22945462

Analysis and prediction of calcium-binding pockets from apo-protein structures exhibiting calcium-induced localized conformational changes

PubMed Central

Wang, Xue; Zhao, Kun; Kirberger, Michael; Wong, Hing; Chen, Guantao; Yang, Jenny J

2010-01-01

Calcium binding in proteins exhibits a wide range of polygonal geometries that relate directly to an equally diverse set of biological functions. The binding process stabilizes protein structures and typically results in local conformational change and/or global restructuring of the backbone. Previously, we established the MUG program, which utilized multiple geometries in the Ca2+-binding pockets of holoproteins to identify such pockets, ignoring possible Ca2+-induced conformational change. In this article, we first report our progress in the analysis of Ca2+-induced conformational changes followed by improved prediction of Ca2+-binding sites in the large group of Ca2+-binding proteins that exhibit only localized conformational changes. The MUGSR algorithm was devised to incorporate side chain torsional rotation as a predictor. The output from MUGSR presents groups of residues where each group, typically containing two to five residues, is a potential binding pocket. MUGSR was applied to both X-ray apo structures and NMR holo structures, which did not use calcium distance constraints in structure calculations. Predicted pockets were validated by comparison with homologous holo structures. Defining a “correct hit” as a group of residues containing at least two true ligand residues, the sensitivity was at least 90%; whereas for a “correct hit” defined as a group of residues containing at least three true ligand residues, the sensitivity was at least 78%. These data suggest that Ca2+-binding pockets are at least partially prepositioned to chelate the ion in the apo form of the protein. PMID:20512971

A Spatio-Temporal Understanding of Growth Regulation during the Salt Stress Response in Arabidopsis[W

PubMed Central

Geng, Yu; Wu, Rui; Wee, Choon Wei; Xie, Fei; Wei, Xueliang; Chan, Penny Mei Yeen; Tham, Cliff; Duan, Lina; Dinneny, José R.

2013-01-01

Plant environmental responses involve dynamic changes in growth and signaling, yet little is understood as to how progress through these events is regulated. Here, we explored the phenotypic and transcriptional events involved in the acclimation of the Arabidopsis thaliana seedling root to a rapid change in salinity. Using live-imaging analysis, we show that growth is dynamically regulated with a period of quiescence followed by recovery then homeostasis. Through the use of a new high-resolution spatio-temporal transcriptional map, we identify the key hormone signaling pathways that regulate specific transcriptional programs, predict their spatial domain of action, and link the activity of these pathways to the regulation of specific phases of growth. We use tissue-specific approaches to suppress the abscisic acid (ABA) signaling pathway and demonstrate that ABA likely acts in select tissue layers to regulate spatially localized transcriptional programs and promote growth recovery. Finally, we show that salt also regulates many tissue-specific and time point–specific transcriptional responses that are expected to modify water transport, Casparian strip formation, and protein translation. Together, our data reveal a sophisticated assortment of regulatory programs acting together to coordinate spatially patterned biological changes involved in the immediate and long-term response to a stressful shift in environment. PMID:23898029

Science Writers' Guide to TERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

The launch of NASA's Terra spacecraft marks a new era of comprehensive monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and continents from a single space-based platform. Data from the five Terra instruments will create continuous, long-term records of the state of the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Together with data from other satellite systems launched by NASA and other countries, Terra will inaugurate a new self-consistent data record that will be gathered over the next 15 years. The science objectives of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) program are to provide global observations and scientific understanding of land cover change and global productivity, climate variability and change, natural hazards, and atmospheric ozone. Observations by the Terra instruments will: provide the first global and seasonal measurements of the Earth system, including such critical functions as biological productivity of the land and oceans, snow and ice, surface temperature, clouds, water vapor, and land cover; improve our ability to detect human impacts on the Earth system and climate, identify the "fingerprint" of human activity on climate, and predict climate change by using the new global observations in climate models; help develop technologies for disaster prediction, characterization, and risk reduction from wildfires, volcanoes, floods, and droughts, and start long-term monitoring of global climate change and environmental change.

The Role of Twelve-Step-Related Spirituality in Addiction Recovery.

PubMed

Dermatis, Helen; Galanter, Marc

2016-04-01

This paper reviews empirical studies conducted on the role of spirituality and religiosity (S/R) characteristics in 12-step recovery among program members followed up after substance abuse treatment and those assessed independent of formal treatment. Aspects of spiritual functioning that change in relation to program participation and those S/R characteristics that were found to mediate the association between program involvement and drinking-related outcomes are discussed. In addition, a review is provided of 12-step program studies investigating S/R-related predictors of clinical outcomes relevant to risk of relapse among members in long-term recovery. To further examine the role of S/R characteristics in recovery, a study was conducted on long-term AA members to assess the relationship of S/R characteristics and AA program involvement to craving for alcohol and emotional distress after controlling for relevant demographic variables. Feeling God's presence daily, believing in a higher power as a universal spirit, and serving as an AA sponsor were all predictive of positive outcomes.

Effects of the men's program on U.S. Army soldiers' intentions to commit and willingness to intervene to prevent rape: a pretest posttest study.

PubMed

Foubert, John D; Masin, Ryan C

2012-01-01

Noncommissioned male officers in the U.S. Army stationed in Germany were trained to present a 1-hour rape prevention workshop--The Men's Program--to 237 enlisted male soldiers. A comparison group of 244 male soldiers received a briefing focused on reducing the individual's risk for experiencing sexual assault, discussion of myths and facts about sexual assault, and how to avoid being accused of sexual assault. Participants in The Men's Program experienced significant change in the predicted direction for bystander willingness to help, bystander efficacy, rape myth acceptance, likelihood of raping, and likelihood of committing sexual assault with low to medium effect sizes. Comparison group participants experienced no effect on these variables except for a significant decline in rape myth acceptance with a very low effect size. Between-group differences pointed to the efficacy of The Men's Program. Implications of these results for rape prevention programming in the military are discussed.

Humanoid Robotics: Real-Time Object Oriented Programming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newton, Jason E.

2005-01-01

Programming of robots in today's world is often done in a procedural oriented fashion, where object oriented programming is not incorporated. In order to keep a robust architecture allowing for easy expansion of capabilities and a truly modular design, object oriented programming is required. However, concepts in object oriented programming are not typically applied to a real time environment. The Fujitsu HOAP-2 is the test bed for the development of a humanoid robot framework abstracting control of the robot into simple logical commands in a real time robotic system while allowing full access to all sensory data. In addition to interfacing between the motor and sensory systems, this paper discusses the software which operates multiple independently developed control systems simultaneously and the safety measures which keep the humanoid from damaging itself and its environment while running these systems. The use of this software decreases development time and costs and allows changes to be made while keeping results safe and predictable.

Predictors of change in life skills in schizophrenia after cognitive remediation.

PubMed

Kurtz, Matthew M; Seltzer, James C; Fujimoto, Marco; Shagan, Dana S; Wexler, Bruce E

2009-02-01

Few studies have investigated predictors of response to cognitive remediation interventions in patients with schizophrenia. Predictor studies to date have selected treatment outcome measures that were either part of the remediation intervention itself or closely linked to the intervention with few studies investigating factors that predict generalization to measures of everyday life-skills as an index of treatment-related improvement. In the current study we investigated the relationship between four measures of neurocognitive function, crystallized verbal ability, auditory sustained attention and working memory, verbal learning and memory, and problem-solving, two measures of symptoms, total positive and negative symptoms, and the process variables of treatment intensity and duration, to change on a performance-based measure of everyday life-skills after a year of computer-assisted cognitive remediation offered as part of intensive outpatient rehabilitation treatment. Thirty-six patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder were studied. Results of a linear regression model revealed that auditory attention and working memory predicted a significant amount of the variance in change in performance-based measures of everyday life skills after cognitive remediation, even when variance for all other neurocognitive variables in the model was controlled. Stepwise regression revealed that auditory attention and working memory predicted change in everyday life-skills across the trial even when baseline life-skill scores, symptoms and treatment process variables were controlled. These findings emphasize the importance of sustained auditory attention and working memory for benefiting from extended programs of cognitive remediation.

Aeroelastic loads prediction for an arrow wing. Task 3: Evaluation of the Boeing three-dimensional leading-edge vortex code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manro, M. E.

1983-01-01

Two separated flow computer programs and a semiempirical method for incorporating the experimentally measured separated flow effects into a linear aeroelastic analysis were evaluated. The three dimensional leading edge vortex (LEV) code is evaluated. This code is an improved panel method for three dimensional inviscid flow over a wing with leading edge vortex separation. The governing equations are the linear flow differential equation with nonlinear boundary conditions. The solution is iterative; the position as well as the strength of the vortex is determined. Cases for both full and partial span vortices were executed. The predicted pressures are good and adequately reflect changes in configuration.

A Worst-Case Approach for On-Line Flutter Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick C.; Brenner, Martin J.

1998-01-01

Worst-case flutter margins may be computed for a linear model with respect to a set of uncertainty operators using the structured singular value. This paper considers an on-line implementation to compute these robust margins in a flight test program. Uncertainty descriptions are updated at test points to account for unmodeled time-varying dynamics of the airplane by ensuring the robust model is not invalidated by measured flight data. Robust margins computed with respect to this uncertainty remain conservative to the changing dynamics throughout the flight. A simulation clearly demonstrates this method can improve the efficiency of flight testing by accurately predicting the flutter margin to improve safety while reducing the necessary flight time.

The development of an acute care case manager orientation.

PubMed

Strzelecki, S; Brobst, R

1997-01-01

The authors describe the development of an inpatient acute care case manager orientation in a community hospital. Benner's application of the Dreyfus model of skill acquisition provides the basis for the orientation program. The candidates for the case manager position were expert clinicians. Because of the role change it was projected that they would function as advanced beginners. It was also predicted that, as the case managers progressed within the role, the educational process would need to be adapted to facilitate progression of skills to the proficient level. Feedback from participants reinforced that the model supported the case manager in the role transition. In addition, the model provided a predictive framework for ongoing educational activities.

Research Program in Tropical Infectious Diseases

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-01

Individ- patiis B and delta in the southeast of Chiapas , Mexico . uals~~~~~~~~~~~~~ inetdwt B h r oiiefrHeuae Aivosdelrimstigdcon Medica ( Mexico ). 20, 189...patterns of drug resistance of Neisseria gonorrhea in various regions . 4. Determine patterns of malaria transmission; maintain surveillance for chloroquine...remote sensing models developed for use in predicting temporal and spatial changes in malaria vector abundance in Mexico , in a second ecologically

Fast Scattering Code (FSC) User's Manual: Version 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tinetti, Ana F.; Dun, M. H.; Pope, D. Stuart

2006-01-01

The Fast Scattering Code (version 2.0) is a computer program for predicting the three-dimensional scattered acoustic field produced by the interaction of known, time-harmonic, incident sound with aerostructures in the presence of potential background flow. The FSC has been developed for use as an aeroacoustic analysis tool for assessing global effects on noise radiation and scattering caused by changes in configuration (geometry, component placement) and operating conditions (background flow, excitation frequency).

Final Environmental Assessment: C-17 Program Changes Altus Air Force Base, Oklahoma

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-07-01

speed aircraft on MTRs showed that there is little probability of structural damage from such operations ( Sutherland 1989). One finding in that...October. Plotkin, K.J., 1996. PCBoom3 Sonic Boom Prediction Model: Version 1.0c. Wyle Research Report WR 95-22C. May. Plotkin, K.J., Sutherland ...Rate on Aircraft Noise Annoyance. Volume 3: Hybrid Own-Home Experiment. Wyle Laboratories Research Report WR 93-22. December. Sutherland , L

Combustor liner durability analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, V.

1981-01-01

An 18 month combustor liner durability analysis program was conducted to evaluate the use of advanced three dimensional transient heat transfer and nonlinear stress-strain analyses for modeling the cyclic thermomechanical response of a simulated combustor liner specimen. Cyclic life prediction technology for creep/fatigue interaction is evaluated for a variety of state-of-the-art tools for crack initiation and propagation. The sensitivity of the initiation models to a change in the operating conditions is also assessed.

Computer-Aided Process Model For Carbon/Phenolic Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Letson, Mischell A.; Bunker, Robert C.

1996-01-01

Computer program implements thermochemical model of processing of carbon-fiber/phenolic-matrix composite materials into molded parts of various sizes and shapes. Directed toward improving fabrication of rocket-engine-nozzle parts, also used to optimize fabrication of other structural components, and material-property parameters changed to apply to other materials. Reduces costs by reducing amount of laboratory trial and error needed to optimize curing processes and to predict properties of cured parts.

Nomogram to Predict Postoperative Readmission in Patients Who Undergo General Surgery.

PubMed

Tevis, Sarah E; Weber, Sharon M; Kent, K Craig; Kennedy, Gregory D

2015-06-01

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have implemented penalties for hospitals with above-average readmission rates under the Hospital Readmissions Reductions Program. These changes will likely be extended to affect postoperative readmissions in the future. To identify variables that place patients at risk for readmission, develop a predictive nomogram, and validate this nomogram. Retrospective review and prospective validation of a predictive nomogram. A predictive nomogram was developed with the linear predictor method using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database paired with institutional billing data for patients who underwent nonemergent inpatient general surgery procedures. The nomogram was developed from August 1, 2006, through December 31, 2011, in 2799 patients and prospectively validated from November 1, 2013, through December 19, 2013, in 255 patients at a single academic institution. Area under the curve and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. The outcome of interest was readmission within 30 days of discharge following an index hospitalization for a surgical procedure. Bleeding disorder (odds ratio, 2.549; 95% CI, 1.464-4.440), long operative time (odds ratio, 1.601; 95% CI, 1.186-2.160), in-hospital complications (odds ratio, 16.273; 95% CI, 12.028-22.016), dependent functional status, and the need for a higher level of care at discharge (odds ratio, 1.937; 95% CI, 1.176-3.190) were independently associated with readmission. The nomogram accurately predicted readmission (C statistic = 0.756) in a prospective evaluation. The negative predictive value was 97.9% in the prospective validation, while the positive predictive value was 11.1%. Development of an online calculator using this predictive model will allow us to identify patients who are at high risk for readmission at the time of discharge. Patients with increased risk may benefit from more intensive postoperative follow-up in the outpatient setting.

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

COSIM: A Finite-Difference Computer Model to Predict Ternary Concentration Profiles Associated With Oxidation and Interdiffusion of Overlay-Coated Substrates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, James A.

2001-01-01

A finite-difference computer program (COSIM) has been written which models the one-dimensional, diffusional transport associated with high-temperature oxidation and interdiffusion of overlay-coated substrates. The program predicts concentration profiles for up to three elements in the coating and substrate after various oxidation exposures. Surface recession due to solute loss is also predicted. Ternary cross terms and concentration-dependent diffusion coefficients are taken into account. The program also incorporates a previously-developed oxide growth and spalling model to simulate either isothermal or cyclic oxidation exposures. In addition to predicting concentration profiles after various oxidation exposures, the program can also be used to predict coating life based on a concentration dependent failure criterion (e.g., surface solute content drops to 2%). The computer code is written in FORTRAN and employs numerous subroutines to make the program flexible and easily modifiable to other coating oxidation problems.

Using Predictive Analytics to Detect Major Problems in Department of Defense Acquisition Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

research is focused on three questions. First, can we predict the contractor provided estimate at complete (EAC)? Second, can we use those predictions to...develop an algorithm to determine if a problem will occur in an acquisition program or sub-program? Lastly, can we provide the probability of a problem...more than doubling the probability of a problem occurrence compared to current tools in the cost community. Though program managers can use this

Indicators of asthma control among students in a rural, school-based asthma management program

PubMed Central

Rasberry, Catherine N.; Cheung, Karen; Buckley, Rebekah; Dunville, Richard; Daniels, Brandy; Cook, Deborah; Robin, Leah; Dean, Blair

2015-01-01

Objective The evaluation sought to determine if a comprehensive, school-based asthma management program in a small, rural school district helped students improve asthma control. Methods To determine if students in the asthma program demonstrated better asthma control than students in a comparison school district, the evaluation team used a quasi-experimental, cross-sectional design and administered questionnaires assessing asthma control (which included FEV1 measurement) to 456 students with asthma in the intervention and comparison districts. Data were analyzed for differences in asthma control between students in the two districts. To determine if students in the intervention experienced increased asthma control between baseline and follow-up, the evaluation team used a one-group retrospective design. Program records for 323 students were analyzed for differences in percent of predicted forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) between baseline and follow-up. Results Students with asthma in the intervention district exhibited significantly better asthma control than students with asthma in the comparison district. Percent of predicted FEV1 did not change significantly between baseline and follow-up for the intervention participants; however, post hoc analyses revealed students with poorly-controlled asthma at baseline had significantly higher FEV1 scores at follow-up, and students with well-controlled asthma at baseline had significantly lower FEV1 scores at follow-up. Conclusions Findings suggest the comprehensive school-based program led to improvements in asthma control for students with poorly controlled asthma at baseline, and school-based programs need mechanisms for tracking students with initially well-controlled asthma in order to ensure they maintain control. PMID:24730771

Life on the Edge - Improved Forest Cover Mapping in Mixed-Use Tropical Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C.; Mendenhall, C. D.; Daily, G.

2016-12-01

Tropical ecosystems and biodiversity are experiencing rapid change, primarily due to conversion of forest habitat to agriculture. Protected areas, while effective for conservation, only manage 15% of terrestrial area, whereas approximately 58% is privately owned. To incentivize private forest management and slow the loss of biodiversity, payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs were established in Costa Rica that pay landowners who maintain trees on their property. While this program is effective in improving livelihoods and preventing forest conversion, it is only managing payments to landowners on 1% of eligible, non-protected forested land.A major bottleneck for this program is access to accurate, national-scale tree cover maps. While the remote sensing community has made great progress in global-scale tree cover mapping, these maps are not sufficient to guide investments for PES programs. The major limitations of current global-scale tree-cover maps are that they a) do not distinguish between forest and agriculture and b) overestimate tree cover in mixed land-use areas (e.g. Global Forest Change overestimates by 20% on average in this region). This is especially problematic in biodiversity-rich Costa Rica, where small patches of forest intermix with agricultural production, and where the conservation value of tree-cover is high. To address this problem, we are developing a new forest cover mapping method that a) performs a least-squares spectral mixture analysis (SMA) using repeat Landsat imagery and canopy radiative transfer modeling: b) combines Landsat data, SMA results, and radar backscatter data using multi-sensor fusion techniques and: c) trains tree-cover classification models using high resolution data sets along a land use-intensity gradient. Our method predicted tree cover with 85% accuracy when compared to a fine-scale map of tree cover in a tropical, agricultural landscape, whereas the next-best method, the Global Forest Change map, predicted tree cover with 72% accuracy. Next steps will aim to test, improve, and apply this method globally to guide investments in nature in agricultural landscapes where forest stewardship will sustain biodiversity.

Motives as predictors of the public's attitudes toward solid waste issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebreo, A.; Vining, J.

2000-02-01

Surveys focusing on solid-waste-related issues, conducted over a period of several years, provided data from independent samples of residents of a Midwestern, USA, community. The collection of these data yielded useful information about the relationship between residents' recycling motives and their attitudes toward solid waste management in light of several changes in the solid waste infrastructure of the community over that time. The initial survey assessed baseline beliefs and attitudes, while later surveys were conducted after the implementation of a community educational program and a curbside recycling program. The findings indicated that for recyclers and nonrecyclers, different motives predicted endorsementmore » of solid waste programs and policies. Although a similar percentage of recyclers and nonrecyclers were in support of various proposed programs and policies, concern for the environment was found to be positively related to nonrecyclers' support of proposed programs, particularly before these programs were implemented. Prior to program implementation, motives other than environmental altruism were found to be related to recyclers' support of the programs. Additional findings support the idea that educational programs and increased accessibility to recycling opportunities affect the relationship between people's attitudes toward solid waste management and their recycling motives.« less

The Use of Linear Programming for Prediction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schnittjer, Carl J.

The purpose of the study was to develop a linear programming model to be used for prediction, test the accuracy of the predictions, and compare the accuracy with that produced by curvilinear multiple regression analysis. (Author)

The effects of pulmonary rehabilitation in the national emphysema treatment trial.

PubMed

Ries, Andrew L; Make, Barry J; Lee, Shing M; Krasna, Mark J; Bartels, Matthew; Crouch, Rebecca; Fishman, Alfred P

2005-12-01

Pulmonary rehabilitation is an established treatment in patients with chronic lung disease but is not widely utilized. Most trials have been conducted in single centers. The National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT) provided an opportunity to evaluate pulmonary rehabilitation in a large cohort of patients who were treated in centers throughout the United States. Prospective observational study of cohort prior to randomization in a multicenter clinical trial. University-based clinical centers and community-based satellite pulmonary rehabilitation programs. A total of 1,218 patients with severe emphysema underwent pulmonary rehabilitation before and after randomization to lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) or continued medical management. Rehabilitation was conducted at 17 NETT centers supplemented by 539 satellite centers. Lung function, exercise tolerance, dyspnea, and quality of life were evaluated at regular intervals. Significant (p < 0.001) improvements were observed consistently in exercise (cycle ergometry, 3.1 W; 6-min walk test distance, 76 feet), dyspnea (University of California, San Diego Shortness of Breath Questionnaire score, -3.2; Borg breathlessness score: breathing cycle, -0.8; 6-min walk, -0.5) and quality of life (St. George Respiratory Questionnaire score, -3.5; Quality of Well-Being Scale score, +0.035; Medical Outcomes Study 36-item short form score: physical health summary, +1.3; mental health summary, + 2.0). Patients who had not undergone prior rehabilitation improved more than those who had. In multivariate models, only prior rehabilitation status predicted changes after rehabilitation. In 20% of patients, exercise level changed sufficiently after rehabilitation to alter the NETT subgroup predictive of outcome. Overall, changes after rehabilitation did not predict differential mortality or improvement in exercise (primary outcomes) by treatment group. The NETT experience demonstrates the effectiveness of pulmonary rehabilitation in patients with severe emphysema who were treated in a national cross-section of programs. Pulmonary rehabilitation plays an important role in preparing and selecting patients for surgical interventions such as LVRS.

Month-wise variation and prediction of bulk tank somatic cell count in Brazilian dairy herds and its impact on payment based on milk quality.

PubMed

Busanello, Marcos; de Freitas, Larissa Nazareth; Winckler, João Pedro Pereira; Farias, Hiron Pereira; Dos Santos Dias, Carlos Tadeu; Cassoli, Laerte Dagher; Machado, Paulo Fernando

2017-01-01

Payment programs based on milk quality (PPBMQ) are used in several countries around the world as an incentive to improve milk quality. One of the principal milk parameters used in such programs is the bulk tank somatic cell count (BTSCC). In this study, using data from an average of 37,000 farms per month in Brazil where milk was analyzed, BTSCC data were divided into different payment classes based on milk quality. Then, descriptive and graphical analyses were performed. The probability of a change to a worse payment class was calculated, future BTSCC values were predicted using time series models, and financial losses due to the failure to reach the maximum bonus for the payment based on milk quality were simulated. In Brazil, the mean BTSCC has remained high in recent years, without a tendency to improve. The probability of changing to a worse payment class was strongly affected by both the BTSCC average and BTSCC standard deviation for classes 1 and 2 (1000-200,000 and 201,000-400,000 cells/mL, respectively) and only by the BTSCC average for classes 3 and 4 (401,000-500,000 and 501,000-800,000 cells/mL, respectively). The time series models indicated that at some point in the year, farms would not remain in their current class and would accrue financial losses due to payments based on milk quality. The BTSCC for Brazilian dairy farms has not recently improved. The probability of a class change to a worse class is a metric that can aid in decision-making and stimulate farmers to improve milk quality. A time series model can be used to predict the future value of the BTSCC, making it possible to estimate financial losses and to show, moreover, that financial losses occur in all classes of the PPBMQ because the farmers do not remain in the best payment class in all months.

The predictive information obtained by testing multiple software versions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Larry D.

1987-01-01

Multiversion programming is a redundancy approach to developing highly reliable software. In applications of this method, two or more versions of a program are developed independently by different programmers and the versions are combined to form a redundant system. One variation of this approach consists of developing a set of n program versions and testing the versions to predict the failure probability of a particular program or a system formed from a subset of the programs. The precision that might be obtained, and also the effect of programmer variability if predictions are made over repetitions of the process of generating different program versions, are examined.

An analysis for high speed propeller-nacelle aerodynamic performance prediction. Volume 2: User's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egolf, T. Alan; Anderson, Olof L.; Edwards, David E.; Landgrebe, Anton J.

1988-01-01

A user's manual for the computer program developed for the prediction of propeller-nacelle aerodynamic performance reported in, An Analysis for High Speed Propeller-Nacelle Aerodynamic Performance Prediction: Volume 1 -- Theory and Application, is presented. The manual describes the computer program mode of operation requirements, input structure, input data requirements and the program output. In addition, it provides the user with documentation of the internal program structure and the software used in the computer program as it relates to the theory presented in Volume 1. Sample input data setups are provided along with selected printout of the program output for one of the sample setups.

SRB-3D Solid Rocket Booster performance prediction program. Volume 3: Programmer's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winkler, J. C.

1976-01-01

The programmer's manual for the Modified Solid Rocket Booster Performance Prediction Program (SRB-3D) describes the major control routines of SRB-3D, followed by a super index listing of the program and a cross-reference of the program variables.

Descriptive and sensitivity analyses of WATBALI: A dynamic soil water model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildreth, W. W. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A soil water computer model that uses the IBM Continuous System Modeling Program III to solve the dynamic equations representing the soil, plant, and atmospheric physical or physiological processes considered is presented and discussed. Using values describing the soil-plant-atmosphere characteristics, the model predicts evaporation, transpiration, drainage, and soil water profile changes from an initial soil water profile and daily meteorological data. The model characteristics and simulations that were performed to determine the nature of the response to controlled variations in the input are described the results of the simulations are included and a change that makes the response of the model more closely represent the observed characteristics of evapotranspiration and profile changes for dry soil conditions is examined.

A manpower calculus: the implications of SUO fellowship expansion on oncologic surgeon case volumes.

PubMed

See, William A

2014-01-01

Society of Urologic Oncology (SUO)-accredited fellowship programs have undergone substantial expansion. This study developed a mathematical model to estimate future changes in urologic oncologic surgeon (UOS) manpower and analyzed the effect of those changes on per-UOS case volumes. SUO fellowship program directors were queried as to the number of positions available on an annual basis. Current US UOS manpower was estimated from the SUO membership list. Future manpower was estimated on an annual basis by linear senescence of existing manpower combined with linear growth of newly trained surgeons. Case-volume estimates for the 4 surgical disease sites (prostate, kidney/renal pelvis, bladder, and testes) were obtained from the literature. The future number of major cases was determined from current volumes based upon the US population growth rates and the historic average annual change in disease incidence. Two models were used to predict future per-UOS major case volumes. Model 1 assumed the current distribution of cases between nononcologic surgeons and UOS would continue. Model 2 assumed a progressive redistribution of cases over time such that in 2043 100% of major urologic cancer cases would be performed by UOSs. Over the 30-year period to "manpower steady-state" SUO-accredited UOSs practicing in the United States have the potential to increase from approximately 600 currently to 1,650 in 2043. During this interval, case volumes are predicted to change 0.97-, 2.4-, 1.1-, and 1.5-fold for prostatectomy, nephrectomy, cystectomy, and retroperitoneal lymph node dissection, respectively. The ratio of future to current total annual case volumes is predicted to be 0.47 and 0.9 for models 1 and 2, respectively. The number of annual US practicing graduates necessary to achieve a future to current case-volume ratio greater than 1 is 25 and 49 in models 1 and 2, respectively. The current number of SUO fellowship trainees has the potential to decrease future per-UOS case volumes relative to current levels. Redistribution of existing case volume or a decrease in the annual number of trainees or both would be required to insure sufficient surgical volumes for skill maintenance and optimal patient outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Using adaptive processes and adverse outcome pathways to develop meaningful, robust, and actionable environmental monitoring programs.

PubMed

Arciszewski, Tim J; Munkittrick, Kelly R; Scrimgeour, Garry J; Dubé, Monique G; Wrona, Fred J; Hazewinkel, Rod R

2017-09-01

The primary goals of environmental monitoring are to indicate whether unexpected changes related to development are occurring in the physical, chemical, and biological attributes of ecosystems and to inform meaningful management intervention. Although achieving these objectives is conceptually simple, varying scientific and social challenges often result in their breakdown. Conceptualizing, designing, and operating programs that better delineate monitoring, management, and risk assessment processes supported by hypothesis-driven approaches, strong inference, and adverse outcome pathways can overcome many of the challenges. Generally, a robust monitoring program is characterized by hypothesis-driven questions associated with potential adverse outcomes and feedback loops informed by data. Specifically, key and basic features are predictions of future observations (triggers) and mechanisms to respond to success or failure of those predictions (tiers). The adaptive processes accelerate or decelerate the effort to highlight and overcome ignorance while preventing the potentially unnecessary escalation of unguided monitoring and management. The deployment of the mutually reinforcing components can allow for more meaningful and actionable monitoring programs that better associate activities with consequences. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:877-891. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

The Effects of Mother Participation in Relationship Education on Coparenting, Parenting, and Child Social Competence: Modeling Spillover Effects for Low-Income Minority Preschool Children.

PubMed

Adler-Baeder, Francesca; Garneau, Chelsea; Vaughn, Brian; McGill, Julianne; Harcourt, Kate Taylor; Ketring, Scott; Smith, Thomas

2018-03-01

Although suggestions are that benefits of relationship and marriage education (RME) participation extend from the interparental relationship with parenting and child outcomes, few evaluation studies of RME test these assumptions and the relationship among changes in these areas. This quasi-experimental study focuses on a parallel process growth model that tests a spillover hypothesis of program effects and finds, in a sample of low-income minority mothers with a child attending a Head Start program, that increases in mother reports of coparenting agreement for RME participants predict decreases in their reports of punitive parenting behaviors. Although improvements in parenting behaviors did not predict increases in teacher reports of children's social competence, improvements in coparenting agreement were associated with increases in children's social competence over time. In addition, comparative tests of outcomes between parents in the program and parents in a comparison group reveal that RME program participants (n = 171) demonstrate significant improvements compared to nonparticipants (n = 143) on coparenting agreement, parenting practices, and teachers' reports of preschool children's social competence over a 1 year period. The findings are offered as a step forward in better understanding the experiences of low-resource participants in RME. Implications for future research are discussed. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Estimating Thruster Impulses From IMU and Doppler Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lisano, Michael E.; Kruizinga, Gerhard L.

2009-01-01

A computer program implements a thrust impulse measurement (TIM) filter, which processes data on changes in velocity and attitude of a spacecraft to estimate the small impulsive forces and torques exerted by the thrusters of the spacecraft reaction control system (RCS). The velocity-change data are obtained from line-of-sight-velocity data from Doppler measurements made from the Earth. The attitude-change data are the telemetered from an inertial measurement unit (IMU) aboard the spacecraft. The TIM filter estimates the threeaxis thrust vector for each RCS thruster, thereby enabling reduction of cumulative navigation error attributable to inaccurate prediction of thrust vectors. The filter has been augmented with a simple mathematical model to compensate for large temperature fluctuations in the spacecraft thruster catalyst bed in order to estimate thrust more accurately at deadbanding cold-firing levels. Also, rigorous consider-covariance estimation is applied in the TIM to account for the expected uncertainty in the moment of inertia and the location of the center of gravity of the spacecraft. The TIM filter was built with, and depends upon, a sigma-point consider-filter algorithm implemented in a Python-language computer program.

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

2013-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

To the National Map and beyond

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelmelis, J.

2003-01-01

Scientific understanding, technology, and social, economic, and environmental conditions have driven a rapidly changing demand for geographic information, both digital and analog. For more than a decade, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing innovative partnerships with other government agencies and private industry to produce and distribute geographic information efficiently; increase activities in remote sensing to ensure ongoing monitoring of the land surface; and develop new understanding of the causes and consequences of land surface change. These activities are now contributing to a more robust set of geographic information called The National Map (TNM). The National Map is designed to provide an up-to-date, seamless, horizontally and vertically integrated set of basic digital geographic data, a frequent monitoring of changes on the land surface, and an understanding of the condition of the Earth's surface and many of the processes that shape it. The USGS has reorganized its National Mapping Program into three programs to address the continuum of scientific activities-describing (mapping), monitoring, understanding, modeling, and predicting. The Cooperative Topographic Mapping Program focuses primarily on the mapping and revision aspects of TNM. The National Map also includes results from the Land Remote Sensing and Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Programs that provide continual updates, new insights, and analytical tools. The National Map is valuable as a framework for current research, management, and operational activities. It also provides a critical framework for the development of distributed, spatially enabled decision support systems.

An analysis of human-induced land transformations in the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirtland, David A.; Gaydos, L.J.; Clarke, Keith; DeCola, Lee; Acevedo, William; Bell, Cindy

1994-01-01

Part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Global Change Research Program involvesstudying the area from the Pacific Ocean to the Sierra foothills to enhance understanding ofthe role that human activities play in global change. The study investigates the ways thathumans transform the land and the effects that changing the landscape may have on regionaland global systems. To accomplish this research, scientists are compiling records ofhistorical transformations in the region's land cover over the last 140 years, developing asimulation model to predict land cover change, and assembling a digital data set to analyzeand describe land transformations. The historical data regarding urban growth focusattention on the significant change the region underwent from 1850 to 1990. Animation isused to visualize a time series of the change in land cover. The historical change is beingused to calibrate a prototype cellular automata model, developed to predict changes in urbanland cover 100 years into the future. Future urban growth scenarios will be developed foranalyzing possible human-induced impacts on land cover at a regional scale. These data aidin documenting and understanding human-induced land transformations from both historical andpredictive perspectives. A descriptive analysis of the region is used to investigate therelationships among data characteristic of the region. These data consist of multilayertopography, climate, vegetation, and population data for a 256-km2 region of centralCalifornia. A variety of multivariate analysis tools are used to integrate the data inraster format from map contours, interpolated climate observations, satellite observations,and population estimates.

Spectators or participants: How can SETAC become more engaged in international climate change research programs?

PubMed

Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L; Clements, William H

2017-08-01

Environmental toxicologists and chemists have been crucial to evaluating the chemical fate and toxicological effects of environmental contaminants, including chlorinated pesticides, before and after Rachel Carson's publication of Silent Spring in 1962. Like chlorinated pesticides previously, global climate change is widely considered to be one of the most important environmental challenges of our time. Over the past 30 yr, climate scientists and modelers have shown that greenhouse gases such as CO 2 and CH 4 cause radiative forcing (climate forcing) and lead to increased global temperatures. Despite significant climate change research efforts worldwide, the climate science community has overlooked potential problems associated with chemical contaminants, in particular how climate change could magnify the ecological consequences of their use and disposal. It is conceivable that the impacts of legacy or new chemical contaminants on wildlife and humans may be exacerbated when climate changes, especially if global temperatures rise as predicted. This lack of attention to chemical contaminants represents an opportunity for environmental toxicologists and chemists to become part of the global research program, and our objective is to highlight the importance of and ways for that to occur. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1971-1977. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

[Predictive value of Hodgkin's lymphoma tumor burden in present].

PubMed

Kulyova, S A; Karitsky, A P

2014-01-01

Today approximately 70% of patients with Hodgkin lymphoma can be cured with the combined-modality therapy. Tumor burden, the importance of which was demonstrated 15 years ago for the first time, is a powerful prognostic factor. Data of literature of representations on predictive value of Hodgkin's lymphoma tumor burden are shown in the article. The difficult immunological relations between tumor cells and reactive ones lead to development of the main symptoms. Nevertheless, the collective sign of tumor burden shows the greatest influence on survival and on probability of resistance, which relative risk can be predicted on this variable and treatment program. Patients with bulky disease need escalated therapy with high-dose chemotherapy. Integration into predictive models of the variable will change an expected contribution of clinical and laboratory parameters in the regression analyses constructed on patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma. Today the role of diagnostic functional methods, in particular a positron emission tomography, for metabolic active measurement is conducted which allows excluding a reactive component.

Change in "resolved plans" and "suicidal ideation" factors of suicidality after participation in an intensive outpatient treatment program.

PubMed

Minnix, Jennifer A; Romero, Catherine; Joiner, Thomas E; Weinberg, Elizabeth F

2007-11-01

This study aims to investigate factors related to suicide in a unique clinical population with more chronic psychopathology than many outpatient samples. One hundred and five adult outpatients were included in the current study. We predicted that higher scores on the resolved plans and preparation (RPP) factor of the Beck Suicide Scale [Beck, A.T., Kovacs, M., Weissman, M., (1979). Assessment of suicidal intention: The scale for suicidal ideation. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 47, 343-352] would predict multiple attempter status even after accounting for co-morbid diagnoses and suicidal ideation (SI) factor scores. Additionally, we predicted that the scores on the RPP factor would decrease less over time than scores on the SI factor. Results were consistent with both hypotheses, suggesting that RPP factor scores were uniquely predictive of status as a multiple attempter and were more stable over time. Mental health diagnoses were rendered without the use of a structured interview and therefore no reliability data were collected.

A pragmatic randomized controlled trial of the Flinders Program of chronic condition management in community health care services.

PubMed

Battersby, Malcolm; Harris, Melanie; Smith, David; Reed, Richard; Woodman, Richard

2015-11-01

To evaluate the Flinders Program in improving self-management in common chronic conditions. To examine properties of the Partners in Health scale (PIH). Participants were randomized to usual care or Flinders Program plus usual care. Self-management competency, quality of life, and other outcomes were measured at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Of 231 participants, 172 provided data at 6 months and 61 at 12 months. At 6 months, intention-to-treat outcomes favoured the intervention group for SF-12 physical health (p=0.043). Other pre-determined outcomes did not show significance. At 6 months intervention participants' problem severity scores reduced (p<0.001) and goal achievement scores increased (p<0.001). Only 55% of the intervention group received a Flinders Program, compromising study power. The PIH was associated with other measures at baseline and for change over time. In a pragmatic community trial, the Flinders Program improved quality of life at 6 months. Incomplete in-practice intervention delivery limited trial power. Studies are now needed on improving delivery. The PIH has potential as a generic risk screening tool and predictive measure of change in self-management and chronic condition outcomes over time. Better implementation including service integration is required for improved chronic disease management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic Programming as Alternative for Predicting Development Effort of Individual Software Projects

PubMed Central

Chavoya, Arturo; Lopez-Martin, Cuauhtemoc; Andalon-Garcia, Irma R.; Meda-Campaña, M. E.

2012-01-01

Statistical and genetic programming techniques have been used to predict the software development effort of large software projects. In this paper, a genetic programming model was used for predicting the effort required in individually developed projects. Accuracy obtained from a genetic programming model was compared against one generated from the application of a statistical regression model. A sample of 219 projects developed by 71 practitioners was used for generating the two models, whereas another sample of 130 projects developed by 38 practitioners was used for validating them. The models used two kinds of lines of code as well as programming language experience as independent variables. Accuracy results from the model obtained with genetic programming suggest that it could be used to predict the software development effort of individual projects when these projects have been developed in a disciplined manner within a development-controlled environment. PMID:23226305

Forecasting near-surface weather conditions and precipitation in Alaska's Prince William Sound with the PWS-WRF modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsson, Peter Q.; Volz, Karl P.; Liu, Haibo

2013-07-01

In the summer of 2009, several scientific teams engaged in a field program in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska to test an end-to-end atmosphere/ocean prediction system specially designed for this region. The "Sound Predictions Field Experiment" (FE) was a test of the PWS-Observing System (PWS-OS) and the culmination of a five-year program to develop an observational and prediction system for the Sound. This manuscript reports on results of an 18-day high-resolution atmospheric forecasting field project using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Special attention was paid to surface meteorological properties and precipitation. Upon reviewing the results of the real-time forecasts, modifications were incorporated in the PWS-WRF modeling system in an effort to improve objective forecast skill. Changes were both geometric (model grid structure) and physical (different physics parameterizations).The weather during the summer-time FE was typical of the PWS in that it was characterized by a number of minor disturbances rotating around an anchored low, but with no major storms in the Gulf of Alaska. The basic PWS-WRF modeling system as implemented operationally for the FE performed well, especially considering the extremely complex terrain comprising the greater PWS region.Modifications to the initial PWS-WRF modeling system showed improvement in predicting surface variables, especially where the ambient flow interacted strongly with the terrain. Prediction of precipitation on an accumulated basis was more accurate than prediction on a day-to-day basis. The 18-day period was too short to provide reliable assessment and intercomparison of the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) skill of the PWS-WRF model variants.

A computer program for the prediction of near field noise of aircraft in cruising flight: User's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tibbetts, J. G.

1980-01-01

Detailed instructions for using the near field cruise noise prediction program, a program listing, and a sample case with output are presented. The total noise for free field lossless conditions at selected observer locations is obtained by summing the contributions from up to nine acoustic sources. These noise sources, selected at the user's option, include the fan/compressor, turbine, core (combustion), jet, shock, and airframe (trailing edge and turbulent boundary layers). The effects of acoustic suppression materials such as engine inlet treatment may also be included in the noise prediction. The program is available for use on the NASA/Langley Research Center CDC computer. Comparisons of the program predictions with measured data are also given, and some possible reasons for their lack of agreement presented.

Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora.

PubMed

Patiño, Jairo; Mateo, Rubén G; Zanatta, Florian; Marquet, Adrien; Aranda, Silvia C; Borges, Paulo A V; Dirkse, Gerard; Gabriel, Rosalina; Gonzalez-Mancebo, Juana M; Guisan, Antoine; Muñoz, Jesús; Sim-Sim, Manuela; Vanderpoorten, Alain

2016-07-05

Oceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make predictions on the fate of the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora in the context of ongoing climate change. The potential distribution of 35 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species was assessed under present and future climate conditions using an ensemble modelling approach. Projections of the models under different climate change scenarios predicted an average decrease of suitable areas of 62-87% per species and a significant elevational increase by 2070, so that even the commonest species were predicted to fit either the Vulnerable or Endangered IUCN categories. Complete extinctions were foreseen for six of the studied Macaronesian endemic species. Given the uncertainty regarding the capacity of endemic species to track areas of suitable climate within and outside the islands, active management associated to an effective monitoring program is suggested.

Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora

PubMed Central

Patiño, Jairo; Mateo, Rubén G.; Zanatta, Florian; Marquet, Adrien; Aranda, Silvia C.; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Dirkse, Gerard; Gabriel, Rosalina; Gonzalez-Mancebo, Juana M.; Guisan, Antoine; Muñoz, Jesús; Sim-Sim, Manuela; Vanderpoorten, Alain

2016-01-01

Oceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make predictions on the fate of the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora in the context of ongoing climate change. The potential distribution of 35 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species was assessed under present and future climate conditions using an ensemble modelling approach. Projections of the models under different climate change scenarios predicted an average decrease of suitable areas of 62–87% per species and a significant elevational increase by 2070, so that even the commonest species were predicted to fit either the Vulnerable or Endangered IUCN categories. Complete extinctions were foreseen for six of the studied Macaronesian endemic species. Given the uncertainty regarding the capacity of endemic species to track areas of suitable climate within and outside the islands, active management associated to an effective monitoring program is suggested. PMID:27377592

Report from the workshop on climate downscaling and its application in high Hawaiian Islands, September 16–17, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helweg, David A.; Keener, Victoria; Burgett, Jeff M.

2016-07-14

In the subtropical and tropical Pacific islands, changing climate is predicted to influence precipitation and freshwater availability, and thus is predicted to impact ecosystems goods and services available to ecosystems and human communities. The small size of high Hawaiian Islands, plus their complex microlandscapes, require downscaling of global climate models to provide future projections of greater skill and spatial resolution. Two different climate modeling approaches (physics-based dynamical downscaling and statistics-based downscaling) have produced dissimilar projections. Because of these disparities, natural resource managers and decision makers have low confidence in using the modeling results and are therefore are unwilling to include climate-related projections in their decisions. In September 2015, the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC), and the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) program convened a 2-day facilitated workshop in which the two modeling teams, plus key model users and resource managers, were brought together for a comparison of the two approaches, culminating with a discussion of how to provide predictions that are useable by resource managers. The proceedings, discussions, and outcomes of this Workshop are summarized in this Open-File Report.

Columbia Glacier stake location, mass balance, glacier surface altitude, and ice radar data, 1978 measurement year

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mayo, L.R.; Trabant, D.C.; March, Rod; Haeberli, Wilfried

1979-01-01

A 1 year data-collection program on Columbia Glacier, Alaska has produced a data set consisting of near-surface ice kinematics, mass balance, and altitude change at 57 points and 34 ice radar soundings. These data presented in two tables, are part of the basic data required for glacier dynamic analysis, computer models, and predictions of the number and size of icebergs which Columbia Glacier will calve into shipping lanes of eastern Prince William Sound. A metric, sea-level coordinate system was developed for use in surveying throughout the basin. Its use is explained and monument coordinates listed. A series of seven integrated programs for calculators were used in both the field and office to reduce the surveying data. These programs are thoroughly documented and explained in the report. (Kosco-USGS)

Surgical prediction of skeletal and soft tissue changes in treatment of Class II.

PubMed

de Lira, Ana de Lourdes Sá; de Moura, Walter Leal; Artese, Flávia; Bittencourt, Marcos Alan Vieira; Nojima, Lincoln Issamu

2013-04-01

The purpose of this study was to study the treatment outcomes and the accuracy of digital prediction and the actual postoperative outcome with Dolphin program on subjects presenting Class II malocclusions. Forty patients underwent surgical mandibular advancement (Group 1) and 40 underwent combined surgery of mandibular advancement and maxillary impaction (Group 2). The available pre surgical (t₁) and a minimum of 12 months post surgical (t₂) cephalometric radiographs were digitized. Predictive cephalograms (t₃) for both groups were traced. At all times evaluated, Group 1 displayed a shorter mandibular length and Group 2 had a longer lower face. In both groups the surgical interventions (t₂) were greater than initially predicted. There was no significant difference between groups with regards to overjet, overbite and soft tissue measurements. In both groups surgeries were more extensive than planned. Facial convexity and the distance of the lips to cranial base presented similar values between t₂ (post surgical) and t₃ (predicted). Copyright © 2012 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensory education program development, application and its therapeutic effect in children

PubMed Central

Chung, Hae-Kyung

2014-01-01

There has recently been Increased interest in the emotional intelligence (EQ) of elementary school students, which is recognized as a more important value than IQ (intelligence quotient) for predict of their success in school or later life. However, there are few sensory education programs, available to improve the EQ of elementary school student's in Korea. This study was conducted to develop an educational program that reflects the characteristics and contents of traditional rice culture and verify the effects of those programs on the EQ of children. The program was developed based on the ADDIE (Analysis, Design, Development, Implementation and Evaluation) model and participants were elementary school students in 3rd and 4th grade (n = 120) in Cheonan, Korea. Descriptive statistics and paired t-tests were used. EQ scores pertaining to the basic sense group, culture group, and food group were significantly improved after the sensory educational program(P < 0.05), but no change was observed in the control group. These findings indicate that sensory education contributed to improving elementary school children's Emotional Intelligence (EI) and their actual understanding about Korean traditional rice culture. PMID:24611113

Handling Input and Output for COAMPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitzpatrick, Patrick; Tran, Nam; Li, Yongzuo; Anantharaj, Valentine

2007-01-01

Two suites of software have been developed to handle the input and output of the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS), which is a regional atmospheric model developed by the Navy for simulating and predicting weather. Typically, the initial and boundary conditions for COAMPS are provided by a flat-file representation of the Navy s global model. Additional algorithms are needed for running the COAMPS software using global models. One of the present suites satisfies this need for running COAMPS using the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The first step in running COAMPS downloading of GFS data from an Internet file-transfer-protocol (FTP) server computer of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is performed by one of the programs (SSC-00273) in this suite. The GFS data, which are in gridded binary (GRIB) format, are then changed to a COAMPS-compatible format by another program in the suite (SSC-00278). Once a forecast is complete, still another program in the suite (SSC-00274) sends the output data to a different server computer. The second suite of software (SSC- 00275) addresses the need to ingest up-to-date land-use-and-land-cover (LULC) data into COAMPS for use in specifying typical climatological values of such surface parameters as albedo, aerodynamic roughness, and ground wetness. This suite includes (1) a program to process LULC data derived from observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Terra and Aqua satellites, (2) programs to derive new climatological parameters for the 17-land-use-category MODIS data; and (3) a modified version of a FORTRAN subroutine to be used by COAMPS. The MODIS data files are processed to reformat them into a compressed American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) format used by COAMPS for efficient processing.

Comparison of two computer programs by predicting turbulent mixing of helium in a ducted supersonic airstream

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pan, Y. S.; Drummond, J. P.; Mcclinton, C. R.

1978-01-01

Two parabolic flow computer programs, SHIP (a finite-difference program) and COMOC (a finite-element program), are used for predicting three-dimensional turbulent reacting flow fields in supersonic combustors. The theoretical foundation of the two computer programs are described, and then the programs are applied to a three-dimensional turbulent mixing experiment. The cold (nonreacting) flow experiment was performed to study the mixing of helium jets with a supersonic airstream in a rectangular duct. Surveys of the flow field at an upstream were used as the initial data by programs; surveys at a downstream station provided comparison to assess program accuracy. Both computer programs predicted the experimental results and data trends reasonably well. However, the comparison between the computations from the two programs indicated that SHIP was more accurate in computation and more efficient in both computer storage and computing time than COMOC.

Computer prediction of three-dimensional potential flow fields in which aircraft propellers operate: Computer program description and users manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jumper, S. J.

1979-01-01

A method was developed for predicting the potential flow velocity field at the plane of a propeller operating under the influence of a wing-fuselage-cowl or nacelle combination. A computer program was written which predicts the three dimensional potential flow field. The contents of the program, its input data, and its output results are described.