Final Report: Synthesis of aquatic climate change vulnerability assessments for the Interior West

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Carly K. Woodlief

2015-01-01

Water is a critical resource for humans and ecological systems in the western United States. Aquatic ecosystems including lakes, rivers, riparian areas and wetlands, are at high risk of climate impacts because they experience relatively high exposure to climate fluctuations and extremes. In turn, impacts arising from climate change are far reaching because these...

75 FR 3516 - Invitation for Recommendations for U.S. Authors and Reviewers to the Fifth Assessment Report of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-21

... Reviewers to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ACTION... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of State invites recommendations for... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will be developed and finalized over the coming four years...

VTrans climate change action plan

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

VTrans is working closely with other state agencies, including the Agency of Natural Resources (ANR) to review and implement the transportation-related recommendations from the 2007 Governors Commission on Climate Change (GCCC) final report. The r...

Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Final Scientific/Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaudhary, Aashish

Seven Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, Universities, and Kitware, undertook a coordinated effort to build an Earth system modeling capability tailored to meet the climate change research strategic objectives of the DOE Office of Science, as well as the broader climate change application needs of other DOE programs.

Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

2016-01-01

Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

Evaluating Urban Resilience to Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Approach (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA is announcing the availability of this final report prepared by the Air, Climate, and Energy (ACE) Research Program, located within the Office of Research and Development, with support from Cadmus. One of the goals of the ACE research program is to provide scientific informat...

A vulnerability and risk assessment of SEPTA's regional rail : a transit climate change adaptation assessment pilot.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

This final report for the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Transit Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Pilot describes the actions : taken, information gathered, analyses performed, and lessons learned throughout the pilot project. This report d...

Changing Minds about the Changing Climate: a Longitudinal Study of the Impacts of a Climate Change Curriculum on Undergraduate Student Knowledge and Attitudes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkholder, K. C.; Mooney, S.

2016-12-01

In the fall of 2013, 24 sophomore students enrolled in a three-course Learning Community entitled "The Ethics and Science of Climate Change." This learning community was comprised of two disciplinary courses in environmental ethics and environmental science as well as a seminar course in which the students designed and delivered climate change education events in the community beyond campus. Students were surveyed prior to and upon completion of the semester using a variant of the Yale Climate Literacy Survey in order to assess their knowledge of and attitudes towards climate change. An analysis of those survey results demonstrated that the non-traditional curriculum resulted in significant improvements that extended beyond disciplinary knowledge of climate change: the student attitudes about climate change and our cultural response to the issues associated with climate change shifted as well. Finally, a third administration of the survey (n=17) plus follow up interviews with 10 of those original students conducted during the students' senior year in 2016 suggest that the changes that the students underwent as sophomores were largely retained.

Energy and Climate Change Report Provides Options for the White House

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2013-03-01

A newly approved energy and climate change report prepared by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) provides a menu of options for President Barack Obama to consider in dealing with climate change and includes components for a national climate preparedness strategy. The report was approved at a 15 March PCAST meeting in Washington, D. C., and is subject to final edits. It is the first report by the advisory council that focuses exclusively on climate, according to PCAST member Daniel Schrag, who provided a presentation about the document at the meeting.

Final Technical Report for Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models, DE-FG02-07ER64429

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smyth, Padhraic

2013-07-22

This is the final report for a DOE-funded research project describing the outcome of research on non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. The main results consist of extensive development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies ofmore » climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes.« less

Lens on Climate Change (LOCC) - Engaging Secondary Students in Climate Science through Videography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, A. U.; Oonk, D. J.; Smith, L. K.; Sullivan, S. B.; Boykoff, M.; Osnes, B.

2014-12-01

The impact of climate change is often discussed using examples from Polar Regions such as decreasing polar bear populations but significant changes are happening to local climates around the world. Climate change is often perceived as happening elsewhere, evoking a sense that others have to take action to mitigate climate change. Learning about climate change is very tangible for students when it addresses impacts they can observe close to their home. The Lens on Climate Change (LOCC) program engaged Colorado middle and high school students in producing short videos about climate change topics in Colorado, specifically ones that are impacting students' lives and their local community. Participating schools were located in rural, suburban and urban Colorado many of which have diverse student populations and high Free and Reduced Lunch rates. Project staff recruited university graduate and undergraduate student to mentor the students in their research and video production. With the help of these mentors, ten student groups selected and researched climate topics, interviewed science experts from local research institutes and produced short videos. The program aimed at engaging students in self-motivated researching and learning about a climate topic. Furthermore, it served as a way to spark students' interest in a career in science by matching them with college students for the program duration and bringing them to the University of Colorado campus for a final screening event, for many of students their first visit to a college campus. The LOCC middle and high school student groups were in addition paired with undergraduate student groups enrolled in a college course that explores climate change through artistic compositions. The undergraduate students were tasked to develop a companion video based only on a brief prompt from the secondary students. Both student videos were screened back-to-back at a final screening. The LOCC project's goal was to connect secondary students, who would otherwise not have the opportunity, with college life and the scientific community. Our evaluation results showed that the process of video production was a powerful tool for the students to explore and learn about climate change topics. Students and teachers appreciated the unique approach to learning.

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing developmen...

Social Climate Science: A New Vista for Psychological Science.

PubMed

Pearson, Adam R; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Romero-Canyas, Rainer

2016-09-01

The recent Paris Agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions, adopted by 195 nations at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, signaled unprecedented commitment by world leaders to address the human social aspects of climate change. Indeed, climate change increasingly is recognized by scientists and policymakers as a social issue requiring social solutions. However, whereas psychological research on intrapersonal and some group-level processes (e.g., political polarization of climate beliefs) has flourished, research into other social processes-such as an understanding of how nonpartisan social identities, cultural ideologies, and group hierarchies shape public engagement on climate change-has received substantially less attention. In this article, we take stock of current psychological approaches to the study of climate change to explore what is "social" about climate change from the perspective of psychology. Drawing from current interdisciplinary perspectives and emerging empirical findings within psychology, we identify four distinct features of climate change and three sets of psychological processes evoked by these features that are fundamentally social and shape both individual and group responses to climate change. Finally, we consider how a more nuanced understanding of the social underpinnings of climate change can stimulate new questions and advance theory within psychology. © The Author(s) 2016.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Gao, X.

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity, with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also nd that dierent initial conditions lead to dierences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

What is motivating middle-school science teachers to teach climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeal, Peggy; Petcovic, Heather; Reeves, Patricia

2017-05-01

Adoption of science content standards that include anthropogenic climate change has prompted widespread instruction in climate change for the first time. However, the controversial nature of the topic can be daunting and many teachers share misconceptions that lead to weak treatment of climate change in classrooms. Nevertheless, numerous teachers have embraced the topic and are providing illustrations of deliberate climate change education. In this study we investigated teacher motivation using focus groups with middle school teachers who currently teach climate change. Qualitative analysis of the collective teacher voices yielded underlying motivations. Our findings suggest that these teachers' interest in environmentalism naturally translates to climate change advocacy and motivates teaching the topic. Their knowledge and expertise gives them confidence to teach it. These teachers see themselves as scientists, therefore their views align with the scientific consensus. They practice authentic scientific research with their students, thus confirming valued characteristics of their scientist identity. Finally, our findings suggest that teaching climate change gives these teachers a sense of hope as they impact the future through their students. This study contrasts with skepticism over the state of climate change education and contributes to an understanding of how climate change education is motivated in teachers.

77 FR 70805 - Presquile National Wildlife Refuge, Chesterfield County, VA; Final Comprehensive Conservation...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-27

... opportunities, including environmental education programs for approximately 120 school-aged students each year... species, protect cultural resources, monitor for climate change impacts, distribute refuge revenue sharing..., and a more aggressive response to habitat changes associated with invasive species, global climate...

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation strategies into New York State Department of Transportation's operations : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-31

This study identifies climate change adaptation strategies and recommends ways of mainstreaming them into planned actions, including legislation, policies, programs and projects in all areas and at all levels within the New York State Department of T...

ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON REGIONAL U.S. AIR QUALITY: A SYNTHESIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON GROUND-LEVEL OZONE (AN INTERIM REPORT OF THE U.S. EPA GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM)

EPA Science Inventory

The Air Quality Assessment Final Report is intended for managers and scientists working on air quality to provide them with information on the potential effects of climate change on regional air quality in the United States.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2013-10-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2011-01-01

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2012-11-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Can increasing carbon dioxide cause climate change?

PubMed Central

Lindzen, Richard S.

1997-01-01

The realistic physical functioning of the greenhouse effect is reviewed, and the role of dynamic transport and water vapor is identified. Model errors and uncertainties are quantitatively compared with the forcing due to doubling CO2, and they are shown to be too large for reliable model evaluations of climate sensitivities. The possibility of directly measuring climate sensitivity is reviewed. A direct approach using satellite data to relate changes in globally averaged radiative flux changes at the top of the atmosphere to naturally occurring changes in global mean temperature is described. Indirect approaches to evaluating climate sensitivity involving the response to volcanic eruptions and Eocene climate change are also described. Finally, it is explained how, in principle, a climate that is insensitive to gross radiative forcing as produced by doubling CO2 might still be able to undergo major changes of the sort associated with ice ages and equable climates. PMID:11607742

77 FR 59962 - John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge at Tinicum, DE and Philadelphia Counties, PA; Final...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-01

... efforts, and increase monitoring efforts for species and for climate change effects. Our environmental...-term relationships with schools and school districts. We would work to expand environmental... for climate change adaptation. However, under alternative C, we would delay much of these efforts to...

77 FR 76034 - National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-26

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OW-2011-0943; FRL9716-6] National Water Program 2012... availability. SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is publishing the final ``National Water...-term visions and goals for the management of water resources in light of climate change and charts key...

CONSEQUENCES OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON MAIZE YIELDS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES. (R824996)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

The effects of climate-change-induced drought and freshwater wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, B.A.; Kleinebecker, Till; Middleton, B.A.

2012-01-01

Drought cycles in wetlands may become more frequent and severe in the future, with consequences for wetland distribution and function. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, 2012. Online: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf, climate-change is likely to affect precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns so that the world’s wetlands may have more frequent episodes of extreme flooding and drought. This chapter contributes to a worldwide view of how wetland processes may be affected by these predicted changes in climate. Specifically, the occurrence of drought may increase, and that increase may affect the critical processes that sustain biodiversity in wetlands. We include specific examples that explore the effects of drought and other climate-change factors on wetland function in various parts of the world. In a concluding section we discuss management strategies for climate-change in wetlands. The synthesis of information in this chapter will contribute to a better understanding of how climate-change-induced drought may affect the function and distribution of wetlands in the future.

Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Areas.

PubMed

Hassan, Noor Artika; Hashim, Zailina; Hashim, Jamal Hisham

2016-03-01

This review discusses how climate undergo changes and the effect of climate change on air quality as well as public health. It also covers the inter relationship between climate and air quality. The air quality discussed here are in relation to the 5 criteria pollutants; ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter (PM). Urban air pollution is the main concern due to higher anthropogenic activities in urban areas. The implications on health are also discussed. Mitigating measures are presented with the final conclusion. © 2015 APJPH.

Conveying the Science of Climate Change: Explaining Natural Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanton, J.

2011-12-01

One of the main problems in climate change education is reconciling the role of humans and natural variability. The climate is always changing, so how can humans have a role in causing change? How do we reconcile and differentiate the anthropogenic effect from natural variability? This talk will offer several approaches that have been successful for the author. First, the context of climate change during the Pleistocene must be addressed. Second, is the role of the industrial revolution in significantly altering Pleistocene cycles, and introduction of the concept of the Anthropocene. Finally the positive feedbacks between climatic nudging due to increased insolation and greenhouse gas forcing can be likened to a rock rolling down a hill, without a leading cause. This approach has proven successful in presentations to undergraduates to state agencies.

Climate Velocity Can Inform Conservation in a Warming World.

PubMed

Brito-Morales, Isaac; García Molinos, Jorge; Schoeman, David S; Burrows, Michael T; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Brown, Christopher J; Ferrier, Simon; Harwood, Tom D; Klein, Carissa J; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Watson, James E M; Wenger, Amelia S; Richardson, Anthony J

2018-06-01

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean biodiversity in 3D, and informing conservation actions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change effects on international stability : a white paper.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, Kathryn; Taylor, Mark A.; Fujii, Joy

2004-12-01

This white paper represents a summary of work intended to lay the foundation for development of a climatological/agent model of climate-induced conflict. The paper combines several loosely-coupled efforts and is the final report for a four-month late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project funded by the Advanced Concepts Group (ACG). The project involved contributions by many participants having diverse areas of expertise, with the common goal of learning how to tie together the physical and human causes and consequences of climate change. We performed a review of relevant literature on conflict arising from environmental scarcity. Rather than simply reviewingmore » the previous work, we actively collected data from the referenced sources, reproduced some of the work, and explored alternative models. We used the unfolding crisis in Darfur (western Sudan) as a case study of conflict related to or triggered by climate change, and as an exercise for developing a preliminary concept map. We also outlined a plan for implementing agents in a climate model and defined a logical progression toward the ultimate goal of running both types of models simultaneously in a two-way feedback mode, where the behavior of agents influences the climate and climate change affects the agents. Finally, we offer some ''lessons learned'' in attempting to keep a diverse and geographically dispersed group working together by using Web-based collaborative tools.« less

Tracing the flow: Climate change actor-networks in Oklahoma secondary science education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colston, Nicole Marie

This dissertation reports research about the translation of climate change in science education. Public controversies about climate change education raises questions about the lived experiences of teachers in Oklahoma and the role of science education in increasing public understanding. A mixed methods research design included rhetorical analysis of climate change denial media, key informant interviews with science education stakeholders, and a survey questionnaire of secondary science teachers. Final analysis was further informed by archival research and supplemented by participant observation in state-wide meetings and science teacher workshops. The results are organized into three distinct manuscripts intended for publication across the fields of communication, science education, and climate science. As a whole the dissertation answers the research question, how does manufactured scientific controversy about climate change present specific challenges and characterize negotiations in secondary science education in Oklahoma? Taken together, the findings suggest that manufactured controversy about climate change introduces a logic of non-problematicity, challenges science education policy making, and undermines scientific consensus about global warming.

Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

DOE PAGES

Bring, Arvid; Rogberg, Peter; Destouni, Georgia

2015-05-28

Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countriesmore » with more limited commitments. Finally, in the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.« less

Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bring, Arvid; Rogberg, Peter; Destouni, Georgia

Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countriesmore » with more limited commitments. Finally, in the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.« less

Arctic climate tipping points.

PubMed

Lenton, Timothy M

2012-02-01

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

DOE PAGES

Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

2015-12-21

Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here in this work, we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is stillmore » weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Finally, hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.« less

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Boysen, Lena R.; Ford, James D.; Fox, Andrew; Gallo, Kevin; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Huntington, Thomas G.; Liu, Zhihua; Loveland, Thomas R.; Norby, Richard J.; Sohl, Terry L.; Steiner, Allison L.; Yuan, Wenping; Zhang, Zhao; Zhao, Shuqing

2017-01-01

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

DOE SBIR Phase II Final Technical Report - Assessing Climate Change Effects on Wind Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whiteman, Cameron; Capps, Scott

Specialized Vertum Partners software tools were prototyped, tested and commercialized to allow wind energy stakeholders to assess the uncertainties of climate change on wind power production and distribution. This project resulted in three commercially proven products and a marketing tool. The first was a Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) based resource evaluation system. The second was a web-based service providing global 10m wind data from multiple sources to wind industry subscription customers. The third product addressed the needs of our utility clients looking at climate change effects on electricity distribution. For this we collaborated on the Santa Ana Wildfiremore » Threat Index (SAWTi), which was released publicly last quarter. Finally to promote these products and educate potential users we released “Gust or Bust”, a graphic-novel styled marketing publication.« less

Climate Change? Who Knows? A Comparison of Secondary Students and Pre-Service Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boon, Helen J.

2010-01-01

In the context of recently published academic discrepancies between Queensland students and students from other Australian states, final year pre-service teachers were surveyed to explore their understanding and knowledge of climate change. Their responses were compared to those of secondary students to discern any significant gains in knowledge…

Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species.

PubMed

Frishkoff, Luke O; Karp, Daniel S; Flanders, Jon R; Zook, Jim; Hadly, Elizabeth A; Daily, Gretchen C; M'Gonigle, Leithen K

2016-09-01

Land-use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species' responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land-use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land-use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest-dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land-use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Climate Change Professional Development: Design, Implementation, and Initial Outcomes on Teacher Learning, Practice, and Student Beliefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, Nicole A.; Mouza, Chrystalla; Drewes, Andrea

2016-04-01

In this work, we present the design, implementation, and initial outcomes of the Climate Academy, a hybrid professional development program delivered through a combination of face-to-face and online interactions, intended to prepare formal and informal science teachers (grades 5-16) in teaching about climate change. The Climate Academy was designed around core elements of successful environmental professional development programs and aligned with practices advocated in benchmarked science standards. Data were collected from multiple sources including observations of professional development events, participants' reflections on their learning, and collection of instructional units designed during the Academy. Data were also collected from a focal case study teacher in a middle school setting. Case study data included classroom observations, teacher interviews, and student beliefs toward climate change. Results indicated that the Climate Academy fostered increased learning among participants of both climate science content and pedagogical strategies for teaching about climate change. Additionally, results indicated that participants applied their new learning in the design of climate change instructional units. Finally, results from the case study indicated positive impacts on student beliefs and greater awareness about climate change. Results have implications for the design of professional development programs on climate change, a topic included for the first time in national standards.

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity

PubMed Central

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-01-01

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors’ experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public health There is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change. PMID:27190980

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

PubMed

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-04-26

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.

How does climate change cause extinction?

PubMed Central

Cahill, Abigail E.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Yeong Ryu, Hae; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J.

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. PMID:23075836

How does climate change cause extinction?

PubMed

Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

2013-01-07

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bouska, Kristen; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Lant, Christopher; Schoof, Justin

2018-01-01

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Landscape-scale modelling of soil carbon dynamics under land use and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacoste, Marine; Viaud, Valérie; Michot, Didier; Christian, Walter

2013-04-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is highly linked to soil use and farming practices, but also to soil redistributions, soil properties, and climate. In a global change context, landscape, farming practice and climate changes are expected; and they will most probably impact SOC dynamics. To assess their respective impacts, we modelled the SOC contents and stocks evolution at the scale of an agricultural landscape, by taking into account the soil redistribution by tillage and water processes. The simulations were conducted from 2010 to 2100 under different scenarios of landscape and climate. These scenarios combined different land uses associated to specific farming practices (mixed dairy with rotations of crops and grasslands, intensive cropping with only crops rotations or permanent grasslands), landscape managements (hedges planting or removal), and climates (business-as-usual climate and climate change, with temperature and precipitations increase). We used a spatially SOC dynamic model (adapted from RothC), coupled to a soil redistribution model (LandSoil). SOC dynamics were spatially modelled with a lateral resolution of 2-m and for soil organic layers up to 105 cm. Initial SOC stocks were described with a 2-m resolution map based on field data and produced with digital soil mapping methods. The major factor of change in SOC stocks was land use change, the second factor of importance was climate change, and finally landscape management: for the total SOC stocks (0-to-105 cm soil layer) the change of land use, climate and landscape management induced a respective mean absolute variation of 10 to 20 tC ha-1, 9 tC ha-1 and 0.4 tC ha-1. When considering the 0-to-105 cm soil layer, the different modelled landscapes showed the same sensitivity to climate change, with induced a mean decrease of 10 tC ha-1. However, the impact of climate change was found different according to the different modelled landscape when considering the 0-to-7.5 and 0-to-30 cm soil layers: the more sensitive landscapes were those of intensive cropping. This shows the importance of considering not only the plough layer, but also the vertical distribution of SOC stocks to assess the variation in SOC dynamics under land use, landscape management or climate change. Finally, rural hedgerow landscapes were proved to be quite well adapted for soil protection in a context of climate change, focusing on both carbon storage and soil erosion.

Climate Change Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

1998-03-01

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

Can "Ozzie" the Ostrich Prepare the Public for Better Learning about Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. F.; Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Lockwood, L.

2016-02-01

Climate change is one of the most pressing societal issues today, and educators are struggling with how to inform people of all ages and backgrounds about the reality and relevance of climate change. ScienceToGo.org has designed 12 posters that were placed on the Boston subways over the course of 15 months. Surveys of T-riders suggest that Ozzie the Ostrich is highly recognizable, is non-threatening, and is connecting Boston with climate change impacts and solutions. We hypothesize that our advertising campaign not only raises awareness about climate change in Boston and engages the public in thinking and talking about climate change, but also prepares them for learning more about climate change in the future. By exposing students to the 12 posters, we think that fears associated with climate change are lessened, and that students are more willing to explore a variety of media (newspaper articles, internet postings, peer-reviewed journal articles, data, and graphs) compared to students that are not exposed to the posters. Students will complete an initial survey, be exposed (or not exposed) to Ozzie posters, asked to explore a variety of media related to climate change, then surveyed again. Finally, focus groups will be conducted to gain insights on how students interact about climate change with or without exposure to Ozzie. We are interested in learning if exposure to brief, engaging, and humorous advertising messages will change the way students learn about climate change. This presentation will present initial results of this study.

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

PubMed

Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

2006-02-01

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

Promotion of Youth-Led Enterprises in Off-Grid Renewable Energy. Youth Employment Summit. Final Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Education Development Center, Inc, 2004

2004-01-01

The focus of this project was to address global climate change and, in the same context, analyze how proposed solutions could simultaneously enhance employment opportunities for youth. The outcomes of the project include: (1) greater awareness and engagement of youth in climate change issues, including the need to promote renewable energy…

Vulnerability-based evaluation of water supply design under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umit Taner, Mehmet; Ray, Patrick; Brown, Casey

2015-04-01

Long-lived water supply infrastructures are strategic investments in the developing world, serving the purpose of balancing water deficits compounded by both population growth and socio-economic development. Robust infrastructure design under climate change is compelling, and often addressed by focusing on the outcomes of climate model projections ('scenario-led' planning), or by identifying design options that are less vulnerable to a wide range of plausible futures ('vulnerability-based' planning). Decision-Scaling framework combines these two approaches by first applying a climate stress test on the system to explore vulnerabilities across many traces of the future, and then employing climate projections to inform the decision-making process. In this work, we develop decision scaling's nascent risk management concepts further, directing actions on vulnerabilities identified during the climate stress test. In the process, we present a new way to inform climate vulnerability space using climate projections, and demonstrate the use of multiple decision criteria to guide to a final design recommendation. The concepts are demonstrated for a water supply project in the Mombasa Province of Kenya, planned to provide domestic and irrigation supply. Six storage design capacities (from 40 to 140 million cubic meters) are explored through a stress test, under a large number climate traces representing both natural climate variability and plausible climate changes. Design outcomes are simulated over a 40-year planning period with a coupled hydrologic-water resources systems model and using standard reservoir operation rules. Resulting performance is expressed in terms of water supply reliability and economic efficiency. Ensemble climate projections are used for assigning conditional likelihoods to the climate traces using a statistical distance measure. The final design recommendations are presented and discussed for the decision criteria of expected regret, satisficing, and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).

How will biotic interactions influence climate change-induced range shifts?

PubMed

HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Harsch, Melanie A; Ettinger, Ailene K; Ford, Kevin R; Theobald, Elinore J

2013-09-01

Biotic interactions present a challenge in determining whether species distributions will track climate change. Interactions with competitors, consumers, mutualists, and facilitators can strongly influence local species distributions, but few studies assess how and whether these interactions will impede or accelerate climate change-induced range shifts. In this paper, we explore how ecologists might move forward on this question. We first outline the conditions under which biotic interactions can result in range shifts that proceed faster or slower than climate velocity and result in ecological surprises. Next, we use our own work to demonstrate that experimental studies documenting the strength of biotic interactions across large environmental gradients are a critical first step for understanding whether they will influence climate change-induced range shifts. Further progress could be made by integrating results from these studies into modeling frameworks to predict how or generalize when biotic interactions mediate how changing climates influence range shifts. Finally, we argue that many more case studies like those described here are needed to explore the importance of biotic interactions during climate change-induced range shifts. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

2015-03-01

The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

Western water and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2015-01-01

In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik; Hall, L. Embere; Varner, Johanna; Loosen, Anne E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Gahl, Megan K.; Smith, Felisa A.; Lawler, Joshua J.

2017-01-01

Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the limits or constraints on behavioral responses to changing conditions. Here, we characterize the contexts in which organisms respond to climate variability through behavior. First, we quantify patterns in behavioral responses across taxa with respect to timescales, climatic stimuli, life-history traits, and ecology. Next, we identify existing knowledge gaps, research biases, and other challenges. Finally, we discuss how conservation practitioners and resource managers can incorporate an improved understanding of behavioral flexibility into natural resource management and policy decisions.

An interactive web application for visualizing climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-01-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

An Interactive Web Application for Visualizing Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-05-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

Climatic effects on mosquito abundance in Mediterranean wetlands

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases is highly controversial. One of the principal points of debate is whether or not climate influences mosquito abundance, a key factor in disease transmission. Methods To test this hypothesis, we analysed ten years of data (2003–2012) from biweekly surveys to assess inter-annual and seasonal relationships between the abundance of seven mosquito species known to be pathogen vectors (West Nile virus, Usutu virus, dirofilariasis and Plasmodium sp.) and several climatic variables in two wetlands in SW Spain. Results Within-season abundance patterns were related to climatic variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, tide heights, relative humidity and photoperiod) that varied according to the mosquito species in question. Rainfall during winter months was positively related to Culex pipiens and Ochlerotatus detritus annual abundances. Annual maximum temperatures were non-linearly related to annual Cx. pipiens abundance, while annual mean temperatures were positively related to annual Ochlerotatus caspius abundance. Finally, we modelled shifts in mosquito abundances using the A2 and B2 temperature and rainfall climate change scenarios for the period 2011–2100. While Oc. caspius, an important anthropophilic species, may increase in abundance, no changes are expected for Cx. pipiens or the salt-marsh mosquito Oc. detritus. Conclusions Our results highlight that the effects of climate are species-specific, place-specific and non-linear and that linear approaches will therefore overestimate the effect of climate change on mosquito abundances at high temperatures. Climate warming does not necessarily lead to an increase in mosquito abundance in natural Mediterranean wetlands and will affect, above all, species such as Oc. caspius whose numbers are not closely linked to rainfall and are influenced, rather, by local tidal patterns and temperatures. The final impact of changes in vector abundance on disease frequency will depend on the direct and indirect effects of climate and other parameters related to pathogen amplification and spillover on humans and other vertebrates. PMID:25030527

Responding to climate change in New York State: the ClimAID integrated assessment for effective climate change adaptation in New York State. Final report.

PubMed

2011-12-01

Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.

The future of fishes and fisheries in the changing oceans.

PubMed

Cheung, W W L

2018-03-01

This paper aims to highlight the risk of climate change on coupled marine human and natural systems and explore possible solutions to reduce such risk. Specifically, it explores some of the key responses of marine fish stocks and fisheries to climate change and their implications for human society. It highlights the importance of mitigating carbon emission and achieving the Paris Agreement in reducing climate risk on marine fish stocks and fisheries. Finally, it discusses potential opportunities for helping fisheries to reduce climate threats, through local adaptation. A research direction in fish biology and ecology is proposed that would help support the development of these potential solutions. © 2018 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Environmental, genetic, and ecophysiological variation of western and Utah juniper and their hybrids: A model system for vegetation response to climate change. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nowak, R.S.; Tausch, R.J.

1998-11-01

This report focuses on the following two research projects relating to the biological effects of climate change: Hybridization and genetic diversity populations of Utah (Juniperus osteosperma) and western (Juniperus occidentalis) juniper: Evidence from nuclear ribosomal and chloroplast DNA; and Ecophysiological patterns of pinyon and juniper.

A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the report, A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report is a screening-level assessment of the potential implications...

Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

2014-12-01

The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

UV radiation in the melanoma capital of the world: What makes New Zealand so different?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenzie, Richard

2017-02-01

To better understand New Zealand's high rates of skin cancer, the UV climate of New Zealand is discussed in relation to other locations, and the factors contributing to geographical differences in UV are explored. Historical and projected future changes in UV are discussed in the context of what would have happened without implementation of the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer. The effects of interactions due to future climate change are also discussed. Finally, the effects of our unique UV climate on human health are discussed briefly; along with changing public advice.

Climate Change in the US: Potential Consequences for Human Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2001-01-01

The U.S. National Assessment identified five major areas of consequences of climate change in the United States: temperature-related illnesses and deaths, health effects related to extreme weather events, air pollution-related health effects, water- and food-borne diseases, and insect-, tick-, and rodent-borne diseases. The U.S. National Assessment final conclusions about these potential health effects will be described. In addition, a summary of some of the new tools for studying human health aspects of climate change as well as environment-health linkages through remotely sensed data and observations will be provided.

Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2014-01-01

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

Health Care Facilities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts

PubMed Central

Paterson, Jaclyn; Berry, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Varangu, Linda

2014-01-01

Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator’s guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change. PMID:25522050

Climate change impacts on marine water quality: The case study of the Northern Adriatic sea.

PubMed

Rizzi, J; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Zabeo, A; Brigolin, D; Carniel, S; Pastres, R; Marcomini, A

2016-01-30

Climate change is posing additional pressures on coastal ecosystems due to variations in water biogeochemical and physico-chemical parameters (e.g., pH, salinity) leading to aquatic ecosystem degradation. With the main aim of analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on marine water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic. It integrates the outputs of regional biogeochemical and physico-chemical models considering future climate change scenarios (i.e., years 2070 and 2100) with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators. Results showed that salinity and temperature will be the main drivers of changes, together with macronutrients, especially in the area of the Po' river delta. The final outputs are exposure, susceptibility and risk maps supporting the communication of the potential consequences of climate change on water quality to decision makers and stakeholders and provide a basis for the definition of adaptation and management strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring the burden of disease due to climate change and developing a forecast model in South Korea.

PubMed

Yoon, S-J; Oh, I-H; Seo, H-Y; Kim, E-J

2014-08-01

Climate change influences human health in various ways, and quantitative assessments of the effect of climate change on health at national level are becoming essential for environmental health management. This study quantified the burden of disease attributable to climate change in Korea using disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and projected how this would change over time. Diseases related to climate change in Korea were selected, and meteorological data for each risk factor of climate change were collected. Mortality was calculated, and a database of incidence and prevalence was established. After measuring the burden of each disease, the total burden of disease related to climate change was assessed by multiplying population-attributable fractions. Finally, an estimation model for the burden of disease was built based on Korean climate data. The total burden of disease related to climate change in Korea was 6.85 DALY/1000 population in 2008. Cerebrovascular diseases induced by heat waves accounted for 72.1% of the total burden of disease (hypertensive disease 1.82 DALY/1000 population, ischaemic heart disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population, cerebrovascular disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population). According to the estimation model, the total burden of disease will be 11.48 DALY/1000 population in 2100, which is twice the total burden of disease in 2008. This study quantified the burden of disease caused by climate change in Korea, and provides valuable information for determining the priorities of environmental health policy in East Asian countries with similar climates. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CENTER OF THE DOE NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATIC CHANGE RESEARCH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burton, Andrew J.

2014-02-28

The goal of NICCR (National Institute for Climatic Change Research) was to mobilize university researchers, from all regions of the country, in support of the climatic change research objectives of DOE/BER. The NICCR Midwestern Regional Center (MRC) supported work in the following states: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. The MRC of NICCR was able to support nearly $8 million in climatic change research, including $6,671,303 for twenty projects solicited and selected by the MRC over five requests for proposals (RFPs) and $1,051,666 for the final year of ten projectsmore » from the discontinued DOE NIGEC (National Institute for Global Environmental Change) program. The projects selected and funded by the MRC resulted in 135 peer-reviewed publications and supported the training of 25 PhD students and 23 Masters students. Another 36 publications were generated by the final year of continuing NIGEC projects supported by the MRC. The projects funded by the MRC used a variety of approaches to answer questions relevant to the DOE’s climate change research program. These included experiments that manipulated temperature, moisture and other global change factors; studies that sought to understand how the distribution of species and ecosystems might change under future climates; studies that used measurements and modeling to examine current ecosystem fluxes of energy and mass and those that would exist under future conditions; and studies that synthesized existing data sets to improve our understanding of the effects of climatic change on terrestrial ecosystems. In all of these efforts, the MRC specifically sought to identify and quantify responses of terrestrial ecosystems that were not well understood or not well modeled by current efforts. The MRC also sought to better understand and model important feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and regional and global climate systems. The broad variety of projects the MRC has supported gave us a unique opportunity to greatly improve our ability to predict the future health, composition and function of important agricultural and natural terrestrial ecosystems within the Midwestern Region.« less

NCSE's 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change, Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, Ellen

The National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) held its 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change, on January 27-29, 2015, at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Crystal City, VA. The National Conference: Energy and Climate Change developed and advanced partnerships that focused on transitioning the world to a new “low carbon” and “climate resilient” energy system. It emphasized advancing research and technology, putting ideas into action, and moving forward on policy and practice. More than 900 participants from the scientific research, policy and governance, business and civil society, and educationmore » communities attended. The Conference was organized around four themes: (1) a new energy system (including energy infrastructure, technologies and efficiencies, changes in distribution of energy sources, and low carbon transportation); (2) energy, climate and sustainable development; (3) financing and markets; and (4) achieving progress (including ideas for the 21st Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). The program featured six keynote presentations, six plenary sessions, 41 symposia and 20 workshops. Conference participants were involved in the 20 workshops, each on a specific energy and climate-related issue. The workshops were designed as interactive sessions, with each workshop generating 10-12 recommendations on the topic. The recommendations were prepared in the final conference report, were disseminated nationally, and continue to be available for public use. The conference also featured an exhibition and poster sessions. The National Conference on Energy and Climate Change addressed a wide range of issues specific to the U.S. Department of Energy’s programs; involved DOE’s scientists and program managers in sessions and workshops; and reached out to a broad array of DOE stakeholders.« less

Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

2014-12-01

China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national agriculture adaptation strategy decisions.

US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project- Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Mike

The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year supportmore » of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.« less

Global food security under climate change

PubMed Central

Schmidhuber, Josef; Tubiello, Francesco N.

2007-01-01

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses. PMID:18077404

An investigation of the ways in which public health nutrition policy and practices can address climate change.

PubMed

Sulda, Heidi; Coveney, John; Bentley, Michael

2010-03-01

To develop a framework to guide action in the public health nutrition workforce to develop policies and practices addressing factors contributing to climate change. Action/consultative research. Interviews - South Australia, questionnaire - Australia. Interviews - key informants (n 6) were from various government, academic and non-government positions, invited through email. Questionnaire - participants were members of the public health nutrition workforce (n 186), recruited to the study through emails from public health nutrition contacts for each State in Australia (with the exception of South Australia). Support by participants for climate change as a valid role for dietitians and nutritionists was high (78 %). However, climate change was ranked low against other public health nutrition priorities. Support of participants to conduct programmes to address climate change from professional and work organisations was low. The final framework developed included elements of advocacy/lobbying, policy, professional recognition/support, organisational support, knowledge/skills, partnerships and programmes. This research demonstrates a need for public health nutrition to address climate change, which requires support by organisations, policy, improved knowledge and increased professional development opportunities.

Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years.

PubMed

Grant, K M; Rohling, E J; Bar-Matthews, M; Ayalon, A; Medina-Elizalde, M; Ramsey, C Bronk; Satow, C; Roberts, A P

2012-11-29

Current global warming necessitates a detailed understanding of the relationships between climate and global ice volume. Highly resolved and continuous sea-level records are essential for quantifying ice-volume changes. However, an unbiased study of the timing of past ice-volume changes, relative to polar climate change, has so far been impossible because available sea-level records either were dated by using orbital tuning or ice-core timescales, or were discontinuous in time. Here we present an independent dating of a continuous, high-resolution sea-level record in millennial-scale detail throughout the past 150,000 years. We find that the timing of ice-volume fluctuations agrees well with that of variations in Antarctic climate and especially Greenland climate. Amplitudes of ice-volume fluctuations more closely match Antarctic (rather than Greenland) climate changes. Polar climate and ice-volume changes, and their rates of change, are found to covary within centennial response times. Finally, rates of sea-level rise reached at least 1.2 m per century during all major episodes of ice-volume reduction.

Climate Change and Interacting Stressors: Implications for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the release of the final document, Climate Change and Interacting Stressors: Implications for Coral Reef Management in American Samoa. This report provides a synthesis of information on the interactive effects of climate change and other stressors on the reefs of American Samoa as well as an assessment of potential management responses. This report provides the coral reef managers of American Samoa, as well as other coral reef managers in the Pacific region, with some management options to help enhance the capacity of local coral reefs to resist the negative effects of climate change. This report was designed to take advantage of diverse research and monitoring efforts that are ongoing in American Samoa to: analyze and compile the results of multiple research projects that focus on understanding climate-related stressors and their effects on coral reef ecosystem degradation and recovery; and assess implications for coral reef managment of the combined information, including possible response options.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here in this work, we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is stillmore » weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Finally, hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.« less

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE PAGES

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; ...

2017-07-31

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Thome, K. J; Leroy, S.; Corliss, J.; Anderson, J. G.; Ao, C. O.; Bantges, R.; Best, F.;

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

PubMed

Rempel, Robert S; Hornseth, Megan L

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species. PMID:28225817

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change. PMID:24823495

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

To frame is to explain: a deductive frame-analysis of Dutch and French climate change coverage during the annual UN Conferences of the Parties.

PubMed

Dirikx, Astrid; Gelders, Dave

2010-11-01

This study examines the way Dutch and French newspapers frame climate change during the annual United Nations Conferences of the Parties. The methods used in previous studies on the framing of climate change do not allow for general cross-national comparisons. We conduct a quantitative deductive framing analysis on 257 quality Dutch and French newspaper articles between 2001 and 2007. Both countries' newspapers seem to frame climate change through mainly the same lens. The majority of the articles make reference to the consequences of the (non-)pursuit of a certain course of action and of possible losses and gains (consequences frame). Additionally, many articles mention the need for urgent actions, refer to possible solutions and suggest that governments are responsible for and/or capable of alleviating climate change problems (responsibility frame). Finally, the conflict frame was found to be used less often than the aforementioned frames, but more regularly than the human interest frame.

Climate Change Conceptual Change: Scientific Information Can Transform Attitudes.

PubMed

Ranney, Michael Andrew; Clark, Dav

2016-01-01

Of this article's seven experiments, the first five demonstrate that virtually no Americans know the basic global warming mechanism. Fortunately, Experiments 2-5 found that 2-45 min of physical-chemical climate instruction durably increased such understandings. This mechanistic learning, or merely receiving seven highly germane statistical facts (Experiment 6), also increased climate-change acceptance-across the liberal-conservative spectrum. However, Experiment 7's misleading statistics decreased such acceptance (and dramatically, knowledge-confidence). These readily available attitudinal and conceptual changes through scientific information disconfirm what we term "stasis theory"--which some researchers and many laypeople varyingly maintain. Stasis theory subsumes the claim that informing people (particularly Americans) about climate science may be largely futile or even counterproductive--a view that appears historically naïve, suffers from range restrictions (e.g., near-zero mechanistic knowledge), and/or misinterprets some polarization and (noncausal) correlational data. Our studies evidenced no polarizations. Finally, we introduce HowGlobalWarmingWorks.org--a website designed to directly enhance public "climate-change cognition." Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction

PubMed Central

Slingo, Julia; Palmer, Tim

2011-01-01

Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This paper gives a perspective on Lorenz's work and how it has influenced the ways in which we seek to represent uncertainty in forecasts on all lead times from hours to decades. It looks at how model uncertainty has been represented in probabilistic prediction systems and considers the challenges posed by a changing climate. Finally, the paper considers how the uncertainty in projections of climate change can be addressed to deliver more reliable and confident assessments that support decision-making on adaptation and mitigation. PMID:22042896

Final Report on Hierarchical Coupled Modeling and Prediction of Regional Climate Change in the Atlantic Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saravanan, Ramalingam

2011-10-30

During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: a) Carried out studies of climate changes in the past using a hierarchy of intermediate coupled models (Chang et al., 2008; Wan et al 2009; Wen et al., 2010a,b) b) Completed the development of a Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM; Patricola et al., 2011a,b) c) Carried out studies testing hypotheses testing the origin of systematic errors in the CRCM (Patricola et al., 2011a,b) d) Carried out studies of the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, in the context of barrier layer interactions (Balaguru et al)

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

Understanding potential impacts of climate change is complicated by spatially mismatched land representations between gridded datasets and models, and land use models with larger regions defined by geopolitical and/or biophysical criteria. Here in this study, we quantify the sensitivity of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) outputs to the delineation of Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs), which are normally based on historical (1961–1990) climate. We reconstruct GCAM's land regions using projected (2071–2100) climate, and find large differences in estimated future land use that correspond with differences in agricultural commodity prices and production volumes. Importantly, historically delineated AEZs experience spatially heterogeneous climate impacts overmore » time, and do not necessarily provide more homogenous initial land productivity than projected AEZs. Finally, we conclude that non-climatic criteria for land use region delineation are likely preferable for modeling land use change in the context of climate change, and that uncertainty associated with land delineation needs to be quantified.« less

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

DOE PAGES

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

2016-09-03

Understanding potential impacts of climate change is complicated by spatially mismatched land representations between gridded datasets and models, and land use models with larger regions defined by geopolitical and/or biophysical criteria. Here in this study, we quantify the sensitivity of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) outputs to the delineation of Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs), which are normally based on historical (1961–1990) climate. We reconstruct GCAM's land regions using projected (2071–2100) climate, and find large differences in estimated future land use that correspond with differences in agricultural commodity prices and production volumes. Importantly, historically delineated AEZs experience spatially heterogeneous climate impacts overmore » time, and do not necessarily provide more homogenous initial land productivity than projected AEZs. Finally, we conclude that non-climatic criteria for land use region delineation are likely preferable for modeling land use change in the context of climate change, and that uncertainty associated with land delineation needs to be quantified.« less

Learning and Risk Exposure in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F.

2015-12-01

Climate change is a gradual process most apparent over long time-scales and large spatial scales, but it is experienced by those affected as changes in local weather. Climate change will gradually push the weather people experience outside the bounds of historic norms, resulting in unprecedented and extreme weather events. However, people do have the ability to learn about and respond to a changing climate. Therefore, connecting the weather people experience with their perceptions of climate change requires understanding how people infer the current state of the climate given their observations of weather. This learning process constitutes a first-order constraint on the rate of adaptation and is an important determinant of the dynamic adjustment costs associated with climate change. In this paper I explore two learning models that describe how local weather observations are translated into perceptions of climate change: an efficient Bayesian learning model and a simpler rolling-mean heuristic. Both have a period during which the learner's beliefs about the state of the climate are different from its true state, meaning the learner is exposed to a different range of extreme weather outcomes then they are prepared for. Using the example of surface temperature trends, I quantify this additional exposure to extreme heat events under both learning models and both RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Risk exposure increases for both learning models, but by substantially more for the rolling-mean learner. Moreover, there is an interaction between the learning model and the rate of climate change: the inefficient rolling-mean learner benefits much more from the slower rates of change under RCP 2.6 then the Bayesian. Finally, I present results from an experiment that suggests people are able to learn about a trending climate in a manner consistent with the Bayesian model.

Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Blaustein, Andrew R; Johnson, Pieter T J; Paull, Sara H; Young, Suzanne

2013-01-01

Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host-parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host-parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change-disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host-parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host-parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations.

Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid

2017-10-01

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2015-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

Considering Students' Out-of-School Lives and Values in Designing Learning Environments for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, E.; Tsurusaki, B.

2012-12-01

What are the implications of social controversy for the teaching and learning of climate change science? How do the political dimensions of this controversy affect learners' attitudes towards and reasoning about climate change and climate science? Case studies from a pilot enactment of an ecological impacts of climate change curriculum explore these questions by describing how five high school students' understandings of climate change science developed at the intersection of political and scientific values, attitudes, and ways of knowing. Case studies combine qualitative, ethnographic methods including interviews and classroom video observations with quantitative pre/post-assessments of student conceptual understandings and weekly surveys of student engagement. Data indicate that students had initial perceptions of climate change informed by the media and their families—both supporting and rejecting the scientific consensus—that influenced how they engaged with the scientific evidence. While students who were initially antagonistic to anthropogenic climate change did develop conceptual understandings of the scientific evidence for human-influences on climate change, this work was challenging and at times frustrating for them. These case studies demonstrate the wide range of initial attitudes and understandings that students bring to the study of climate change. They also demonstrate that it is possible to make significant shifts in students' understandings of climate change science, even in students who were initially resistant to the idea of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, multiple case studies discuss ways that the learning that occurred in the classroom crossed out of the classroom into the students' homes and family talk. This work highlights how learners' pathways are shaped not only by their developing understanding of the scientific evidence but also by the political and social influences that learners navigate across the contexts of their lives. It underscores the need to understand and support students as they interact with climate change across the contexts of their lives.

78 FR 43912 - Final Candidate Conservation Agreement with Assurances, Final Environmental Assessment, and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-22

... climate change. Because of the range contraction and the imminent threats, the Rio Grande cutthroat trout... Finding of No Significant Impact; Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout, New Mexico and Colorado AGENCY: Fish and... Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki virginialis) in New Mexico and Colorado, as well as the final...

Public Inaccuracy in Meta-perceptions of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swim, J.; Fraser, J.

2012-12-01

Public perceptions of climate change and meta-perceptions of the public and climate scientist's perceptions of climate change were assessed to benchmark the National Network for Climate Change Interpretation's impacts. Meta-perceptions are important to examine because they can have implications for willingness to take action to address climate change. For instance, recent research suggests a tendency to misperceive that there is disagreement among climate scientists is predictive of lack of support for climate change policies. Underestimating public concern about climate change could also be problematic: it could lead individuals to withdraw from personal efforts to reduce impact and engage others in discussions about climate change. Presented results will demonstrate that respondents in a national survey underestimated the percent of the public who were very concerned, concerned or cautious about climate change and overestimated the extent others were disengaged, doubted, or non-believers. They underestimated the percent of the public who likely believed that humans caused climate change and overestimate the percent that believed climate change was not happening nor human induced. Finally, they underestimated the percent of the public that believed climate change threatened ocean health. The results also explore sources of misperceptions. First, correlates with TV viewing habits suggest that inaccuracy is a result of too little attention to network news, with one exception: Greater attention to FOX among doubters reduced accuracy. Second, adding to other evidence that basic cognitive heuristics (such as availability heuristic) influence perceptions of climate change, we show that that false consensus effects account for meta-perceptions of the public and climate scientists beliefs. The false consensus effect, in combination with underestimating concern among the public, results in those most concerned about climate change and those who believe it to be human caused to be more accurate in their meta-perceptions than their disbelieving counterparts. Yet, even this group underestimates the public's concern about climate change and the presence of the false consensus effect suggests that greater accuracy is not a result of greater knowledge about other's beliefs but rather a result of personal cognitive or motivational biases counteracting a general trend toward underestimating the general public's concern. We conclude that there is need to inform the public about wide-spread agreement that human caused climate change and its impacts on oceans is believed by the majority of the public and to increase the public's confidence in climate scientist agreement about the existence, causes, and impacts of climate change.; Perceptions and metaperceptions of concern about climate change

A Social Science Guide for Communication on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St John, C.; Marx, S.; Markowitz, E.

2014-12-01

Researchers from the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) published "The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public" in 2009. This landmark guide provided climate change communicators a synthesis of the social science research that was pertinent to understanding how people think about climate change and how the practice could be improved. In the fall of 2014 this guide will be rereleased, with a new title, and in a partnership between CRED and ecoAmerica. The updated guide addresses how and why Americans respond in certain ways to climate change and explains how communicators can apply best practices to their own work. The guide, which includes research from a range of social science fields including psychology, anthropology, communications, and behavioral economics, is designed to be useful for experienced and novice communicators alike. Included in the guide are strategies to boost engagement, common mistakes to avoid, and best practices that organizations around the world have used to meaningfully engage individuals and groups on climate change. The proposed presentation will provide an overview of the main findings and tips from the 2014 climate change communication guide. It will provide a deeper look at a few of the key points that are crucial for increasing audience engagement with climate change including understanding how identity shapes climate change, how to lead with solutions, and how to bring the impacts of climate change close to home. It will highlight tips for motivating positive behavior change that will lead people down the path toward solutions. Finally, it will address the benefits and challenges associated with producing a communication guide and insight into synthesizing social science research findings into a usable format for a variety of audiences.

Interactive effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning.

PubMed

Pires, Aliny P F; Srivastava, Diane S; Marino, Nicholas A C; MacDonald, A Andrew M; Figueiredo-Barros, Marcos Paulo; Farjalla, Vinicius F

2018-05-01

Climate change and biodiversity loss are expected to simultaneously affect ecosystems, however research on how each driver mediates the effect of the other has been limited in scope. The multiple stressor framework emphasizes non-additive effects, but biodiversity may also buffer the effects of climate change, and climate change may alter which mechanisms underlie biodiversity-function relationships. Here, we performed an experiment using tank bromeliad ecosystems to test the various ways that rainfall changes and litter diversity may jointly determine ecological processes. Litter diversity and rainfall changes interactively affected multiple functions, but how depends on the process measured. High litter diversity buffered the effects of altered rainfall on detritivore communities, evidence of insurance against impacts of climate change. Altered rainfall affected the mechanisms by which litter diversity influenced decomposition, reducing the importance of complementary attributes of species (complementarity effects), and resulting in an increasing dependence on the maintenance of specific species (dominance effects). Finally, altered rainfall conditions prevented litter diversity from fueling methanogenesis, because such changes in rainfall reduced microbial activity by 58%. Together, these results demonstrate that the effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystems cannot be understood in isolation and interactions between these stressors can be multifaceted. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Forest Ecosystem in Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozcan, O.; Musaoglu, N.; Türkeş, M.

2017-12-01

The concept of `climate change vulnerability' helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. Herein, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. Thus, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem are based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a "very low" vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as "very low" account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as "low" account for 36%, those classed as "medium" account for 20%, and those classed as "high" account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, which is characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and the maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation

PubMed Central

Rohr, Jason R.; Raffel, Thomas R.; Blaustein, Andrew R.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Paull, Sara H.; Young, Suzanne

2013-01-01

Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host–parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host–parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change–disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host–parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host–parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host–parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations. PMID:27293606

Pre-service teacher professional development on climate change: Assessment of workshop success and influence of prior knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veron, D. E.; Ad-Marbach, G.; Fox-Lykens, R.; Ozbay, G.; Sezen-Barrie, A.; Wolfson, J.

2017-12-01

As states move to adopt the next generation science standards, in-service teachers are being provided with professional development that introduces climate change content and best practices for teaching climate change in the classroom. However, research has shown that it is challenging to bring this information into the higher education curriculum in education courses for pre-service teachers due to curricular and programming constraints. Over two years, the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) project explored a professional development approach for pre-service teachers which employed paired workshops that resulted in participant-developed lesson plans based on climate change content. The workshops were designed to provide pre-service teachers with climate change content related to the carbon cycle and to model a variety of techniques and activities for presenting this information in the classroom. Lesson plans were developed between the first and second workshop, presented at the second workshop and discussed with peers and in-service teachers, and then revised in response to feedback from the second workshop. Participant climate change content knowledge was assessed before the first workshop, and after the final revision of the lesson plan was submitted to the MADE-CLEAR team. Climate content knowledge was also assessed using the same survey for additional pre-service teacher groups who did not participate in the professional development. Results show that while the paired workshop approach increased climate content knowledge, the amount of improvement varied depending on the participants' prior knowledge in climate change content. In addition, some alternate conceptions of climate change were not altered by participant involvement in the professional development approach. Revised lesson plans showed understanding of underlying climate change impacts and demonstrated awareness of appropriate techniques for introducing this complex topic. These findings will be useful to those planning pre-service teacher professional development on climate change in the future.

BASINs 4.0 Climate Assessment Tool (CAT): Supporting Documentation and User's Manual (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the report, BASINS 4.0 Climate Assessment Tool (CAT): Supporting Documentation and User's Manual. This report was prepared by the EPA's Global Change Research Program (GCRP), an assessment-oriented program, that sits within the Office of R...

The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Hibbard, K. A.

2016-12-01

The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) will provide key input into the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). The report was initiated in 2016 under the guidance of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) as a new, stand-alone report of the state-of-science relating to climate change and its physical impacts. The report is undergoing peer and public review in late 2016 with the aim for final publication in the fourth quarter of 2017. CSSR will provide a comprehensive assessment of the science underlying the changes occurring in the Earth's climate system, with a special focus on the United States. CSSR will serve several purposes for NCA4, including 1) providing an updated detailed analysis of the findings of how climate change is affecting weather and climate across the United States, 2) providing an executive summary that will be used as the basis for the climate science discussion in NCA4, and 3) providing foundational information and projections for climate change, including extremes, to improve "end-to-end" consistency in sectoral, regional, and resilience analyses for NCA4. We will present a summary of the origins and development of CSSR, the writing team, the chapter topics and the relation of CSSR content to NCA4, other assessments and relevance to policy and research communities.

Climate Changes and Human Health: A Review of the Effect of Environmental Stressors on Cardiovascular Diseases Across Epidemiology and Biological Mechanisms.

PubMed

Giorgini, Paolo; Di Giosia, Paolo; Petrarca, Marco; Lattanzio, Francesco; Stamerra, Cosimo Andrea; Ferri, Claudio

2017-01-01

Climate change is rapidly affecting all the regions of our planet. The most relevant example is global warming, which impacts on the earth's ecosystems, threatening human health. Other effects include extreme variations in temperature and increases in air pollution. These events may negatively impact mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases. In this review, we discuss the main effects of climate changes on cardiovascular diseases, reporting the epidemiological evidences and the biological mechanisms linking climate change consequences to hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart diseases, heart failure and stroke. Up to now, findings suggest that humans acclimate under different weather conditions, even though extreme temperatures and higher levels of air pollution can influence health-related outcomes. In these cases, climate change adversely affects cardiovascular system and the high-risk subjects for cardiovascular diseases are those more exposed. Finally, we examine climate change implications on publich health and suggest adaptation strategies to monitor the high-risk population, and reduce the amount of hospital admissions associated to these events. Such interventions may minimize the costs of public health and reduce the mortality for cardiovascular diseases. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Is There a Temperate Bias in Our Understanding of How Climate Change Will Alter Plant-Herbivore Interactions? A Meta-analysis of Experimental Studies.

PubMed

Mundim, Fabiane M; Bruna, Emilio M

2016-09-01

Climate change can drive major shifts in community composition and interactions between resident species. However, the magnitude of these changes depends on the type of interactions and the biome in which they take place. We review the existing conceptual framework for how climate change will influence tropical plant-herbivore interactions and formalize a similar framework for the temperate zone. We then conduct the first biome-specific tests of how plant-herbivore interactions change in response to climate-driven changes in temperature, precipitation, ambient CO2, and ozone. We used quantitative meta-analysis to compare predicted and observed changes in experimental studies. Empirical studies were heavily biased toward temperate systems, so testing predicted changes in tropical plant-herbivore interactions was virtually impossible. Furthermore, most studies investigated the effects of CO2 with limited plant and herbivore species. Irrespective of location, most studies manipulated only one climate change factor despite the fact that different factors can act in synergy to alter responses of plants and herbivores. Finally, studies of belowground plant-herbivore interactions were also rare; those conducted suggest that climate change could have major effects on belowground subsystems. Our results suggest that there is a disconnection between the growing literature proposing how climate change will influence plant-herbivore interactions and the studies testing these predictions. General conclusions will also be hampered without better integration of above- and belowground systems, assessing the effects of multiple climate change factors simultaneously, and using greater diversity of species in experiments.

Media Articles Describing Advances in Scientific Research as a Vehicle for Student Engagement Fostering Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brassell, S. C.

2014-12-01

"Records of Global Climate Change" enables students to fulfill the science component of an undergraduate distribution requirement in "Critical Approaches" at IU Bloomington. The course draws students from all disciplines with varying levels of understanding of scientific approaches and often limited familiarity with climate issues. Its discussion sessions seek to foster scientific literacy via an alternating series of assignments focused on a combination of exercises that involve either examination and interpretation of on-line climate data or consideration and assessment of the scientific basis of new discoveries about climate change contained in recently published media articles. The final assignment linked to the discussion sessions requires students to review and summarize the topics discussed during the semester. Their answers provide direct evidence of newly acquired abilities to assimilate and evaluate scientific information on a range of topics related to climate change. In addition, student responses to an end-of-semester survey confirm that the vast majority considers that their knowledge and understanding of climate change was enhanced, and unsolicited comments note that the discussion sessions contributed greatly to this advancement. Many students remarked that the course's emphasis on examination of paleoclimate records helped their comprehension of the unprecedented nature of present-day climate trends. Others reported that their views on the significance of climate change had been transformed, and some commented that they now felt well equipped to engage in discussions about climate change because they were better informed about its scientific basis and facts.

Glacial-interglacial climate changes recorded by debris flow fan deposits, Owens Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Arcy, Mitch; Roda-Boluda, Duna C.; Whittaker, Alexander C.

2017-08-01

It is hotly debated whether and how climate changes are recorded by terrestrial stratigraphy. Basin sediments produced by catchment-alluvial fan systems may record past climate over a variety of timescales, and could offer unique information about how climate controls sedimentation. Unfortunately, there are fundamental uncertainties about how climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature translate into sedimentological signals. Here, we examine 35 debris flow fan surfaces in Owens Valley, California, that record deposition throughout the past 125,000 years, during which climate has varied significantly. We show that the last full glacial-interglacial cycle is recorded with high fidelity by the grain size distributions of the debris flow deposits. These flows transported finer sediment during the cooler glacial climate, and became systematically coarser-grained as the climate warmed and dried. We explore the physical mechanisms that might explain this signal, and rule out changes in sediment supply through time. Instead, we propose that grain size records past changes in storm intensity, which is responsible for debris flow initiation in this area and is decoupled from average rainfall rates. This is supported by an exponential Clausius-Clapeyron-style scaling between grain size and temperature, and also reconciles with climate dynamics and the initiation of debris flows. The fact that these alluvial fans exhibit a strong, sustained sensitivity to orbital climate changes sheds new light on how eroding landscapes and their sedimentary products respond to climatic forcing. Finally, our findings highlight the importance of threshold-controlled events, such as storms and debris flows, in driving erosion and sedimentation at the Earth's surface in response to climate change.

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

DOE PAGES

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; ...

2018-01-03

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. In this paper, we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO 2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalentmore » to 80% of the net effects of CO 2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850–2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. Finally, we conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.« less

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. In this paper, we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO 2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalentmore » to 80% of the net effects of CO 2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850–2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. Finally, we conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.« less

Hydroecology of Intermittent and Ephemeral Streams: Will Landscape Connectivity Sustain Aquatic Organisms in a Changing Climate?

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

CIRCUITSCAPE (McRae 2006). CIRCUITSCAPE uses circuit theory to simulate gene flow (i.e., “current”) through a resistance surface in which landscape ...2010. Utility of computer simulations in landscape genetics. Mol Ecol 19: 3549–64. Erös T, Schmera D, Schick RS. 2011. Network thinking in...FINAL REPORT Hydroecology of Intermittent and Ephemeral Streams: Will Landscape Connectivity Sustain Aquatic Organisms in a Changing Climate

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Damages under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranson, M.; Kousky, C.; Ruth, M.; Jantarasami, L.; Crimmins, A.; Tarquinio, L.

2014-12-01

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone losses under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 296 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from twenty studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models (84 and 92 percent, respectively) predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5°C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 62 percent. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are approximately one third of that magnitude. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.

Visualizing and communicating climate change using the ClimateWizard: decision support and education through web-based analysis and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Duffy, P.

2009-12-01

Virtually all fields of study and parts of society—from ecological science and nature conservation, to global development, multinational corporations, and government bodies—need to know how climate change has and may impact specific locations of interest. Our ability to respond to climate change depends on having convenient tools that make past and projected climate trends available to planners, managers, scientists and the general public, at scales ranging from global to local scales. Web-mapping applications provide an effective platform for communicating climate change impacts in specific geographic areas of interest to the public. Here, we present one such application, the ClimateWizard, that allows users to analyze, visualize and explore climate change maps for specific geographic areas of interest throughout the world (http://ClimateWizard.org). Built on Web 2.0 web-services (SOAP), Google Maps mash-up, and cloud computing technologies, the ClimateWizard analyzes large databases of climate information located on remote servers to create synthesized information and useful products tailored to geographic areas of interest (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). We demonstrate how the ClimateWizard can be used to assess projected changes to temperature and precipitation across all states in the contiguous United States and all countries of the world using statistically downscaled general circulation models from the CMIP3 dataset. We then go on to show how ClimateWizard can be used to analyze changes to other climate related variables, such as moisture stress and water production. Finally, we discuss how this tool can be adapted to develop a wide range of web-based tools that are targeted at informing specific audiences—from scientific research and natural resource management, to K-12 and higher education—about how climate change may affect different aspects of human and natural systems.

Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

PubMed

Lemoine, Nathan P

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration.

Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

PubMed Central

Lemoine, Nathan P.

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration. PMID:25705876

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

Climate change, water rights, and water supply: The case of irrigated agriculture in Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wenchao; Lowe, Scott E.; Adams, Richard M.

2014-12-01

We conduct a hedonic analysis to estimate the response of agricultural land use to water supply information under the Prior Appropriation Doctrine by using Idaho as a case study. Our analysis includes long-term climate (weather) trends and water supply conditions as well as seasonal water supply forecasts. A farm-level panel data set, which accounts for the priority effects of water rights and controls for diversified crop mixes and rotation practices, is used. Our results indicate that farmers respond to the long-term surface and ground water conditions as well as to the seasonal water supply variations. Climate change-induced variations in climate and water supply conditions could lead to substantial damages to irrigated agriculture. We project substantial losses (up to 32%) of the average crop revenue for major agricultural areas under future climate scenarios in Idaho. Finally, farmers demonstrate significantly varied responses given their water rights priorities, which imply that the distributional impact of climate change is sensitive to institutions such as the Prior Appropriation Doctrine.

Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change: The Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2014-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and other key stakeholders in the Blue Mountains region of northeastern Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

Detrending phenological time series improves climate-phenology analyses and reveals evidence of plasticity.

PubMed

Iler, Amy M; Inouye, David W; Schmidt, Niels M; Høye, Toke T

2017-03-01

Time series have played a critical role in documenting how phenology responds to climate change. However, regressing phenological responses against climatic predictors involves the risk of finding potentially spurious climate-phenology relationships simply because both variables also change across years. Detrending by year is a way to address this issue. Additionally, detrending isolates interannual variation in phenology and climate, so that detrended climate-phenology relationships can represent statistical evidence of phenotypic plasticity. Using two flowering phenology time series from Colorado, USA and Greenland, we detrend flowering date and two climate predictors known to be important in these ecosystems: temperature and snowmelt date. In Colorado, all climate-phenology relationships persist after detrending. In Greenland, 75% of the temperature-phenology relationships disappear after detrending (three of four species). At both sites, the relationships that persist after detrending suggest that plasticity is a major component of sensitivity of flowering phenology to climate. Finally, simulations that created different strengths of correlations among year, climate, and phenology provide broader support for our two empirical case studies. This study highlights the utility of detrending to determine whether phenology is related to a climate variable in observational data sets. Applying this as a best practice will increase our understanding of phenological responses to climatic variation and change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Constraints to species' elevational range shifts as climate changes.

PubMed

Forero-Medina, German; Joppa, Lucas; Pimm, Stuart L

2011-02-01

Predicting whether the ranges of tropical species will shift to higher elevations in response to climate change requires models that incorporate data on topography and land use. We incorporated temperature gradients and land-cover data from the current ranges of species in a model of range shifts in response to climate change. We tested four possible scenarios of amphibian movement on a tropical mountain: movement upslope through and to land cover suitable for the species; movement upslope to land-cover types that will not sustain survival and reproduction; movement upslope to areas that previously were outside the species' range; and movement upslope to cooler areas within the current range. Areas in the final scenario will become isolated as climate continues to change. In our scenarios more than 30% of the range of 21 of 46 amphibian species in the tropical Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta is likely to become isolated as climate changes. More than 30% of the range of 13 amphibian species would shift to areas that currently are unlikely to sustain survival and reproduction. Combined, over 70% of the current range of seven species would become thermally isolated or shift to areas that currently are unlikely to support survival and reproduction. The constraints on species' movements to higher elevations in response to climate change can increase considerably the number of species threatened by climate change in tropical mountains. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

SENSITIVITY OF WINTER WHEAT YIELDS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES TO FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, AND CO2 FERTILIZATION. (R824996)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

The Effect of Information Provision on Public Consensus about Climate Change.

PubMed

Deryugina, Tatyana; Shurchkov, Olga

2016-01-01

Despite over 20 years of research and scientific consensus on the topic, climate change continues to be a politically polarizing issue. We conducted a survey experiment to test whether providing the public with information on the exact extent of scientific agreement about the occurrence and causes of climate change affects respondents' own beliefs and bridges the divide between conservatives and liberals. First, we show that the public significantly underestimated the extent of the scientific consensus. We then find that those given concrete information about scientists' views were more likely to report believing that climate change was already underway and that it was caused by humans. However, their beliefs about the necessity of making policy decisions and their willingness to donate money to combat climate change were not affected. Information provision affected liberals, moderates, and conservatives similarly, implying that the gap in beliefs between liberals and conservatives is not likely to be bridged by information treatments similar to the one we study. Finally, we conducted a 6-month follow-up with respondents to see if the treatment effect persisted; the results were statistically inconclusive.

Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gammans, Matthew; Mérel, Pierre; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

2017-05-01

In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring-summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.

NASA Briefing New Mission to Weigh in on Earth's Changing Water

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-04-30

At a NASA media briefing on April 30, scientists discussed an upcoming mission that will provide unique insights into Earth’s changing climate and have far-reaching benefits to society, such as improved water resource management. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission will measure monthly changes in how mass is redistributed within and among Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, land and ice sheets. GRACE-FO’s pair of spacecraft are in final preparations for a California launch no earlier than Saturday, May 19.

Lessons learnt from the Climate Dialogue initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crok, Marcel; Strengers, Bart; Vasileiadou, Eleftheria

2015-04-01

The weblog Climate Dialogue (climatedialogue.org) has been an experimental climate change communication project. It was the result of a motion in the Dutch parliament, which asked the Dutch government "to also involve climate sceptics in future studies on climate change". Climate Dialogue was set up by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), and Dutch science journalist Marcel Crok. It operated for slightly more than two years (From November 2012 till December 2014). Around 20 climate scientists from all over the world, many of them leading in their respective fields, participated in six dialogues. Climate Dialogue was a moderated blog on controversial climate science topics introducing a combination of several novel elements: a) bringing together scientists with widely separated viewpoints b) strict moderation of the discussion and c) compilation of executive and extended summaries of the discussions that were approved by the invited scientists. In our talk, we will discuss the operation and results of the Climate Dialogue project, focusing more explicitly on the lessons learnt with respect to online climate change communication addressing the question: "To what extent can online climate change communication bring together climate scientists with widely separated viewpoints, and what would be the advantage of such communication practice?" We identify how Climate Dialogue was received and perceived by the participating scientists, but also by different scientific and online communities. Finally, we present our ideas on how Climate Dialogue could evolve in a novel way of contributing to (climate) science and what steps would be necessary and/or beneficial for such a platform to survive and succeed.

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California.

PubMed

Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

2014-09-01

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Final Rule for Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles - Phase 2

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule to finalize standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles that would improve fuel efficiency and cut carbon pollution to reduce the impacts of climate change, while bolstering energy security and spurring manufacturing innovation.

The Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)) target diseases in face of climate change.

PubMed

Yang, Guo-Jing; Utzinger, Jürg; Lv, Shan; Qian, Ying-Jun; Li, Shi-Zhu; Wang, Qiang; Bergquist, Robert; Vounatsou, Penelope; Li, Wei; Yang, Kun; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2010-01-01

Climate change-according to conventional wisdom-will result in an expansion of tropical parasitic diseases in terms of latitude and altitude, with vector-borne diseases particularly prone to change. However, although a significant rise in temperature occurred over the past century, there is little empirical evidence whether climate change has indeed favoured infectious diseases. This might be explained by the complex relationship between climate change and the frequency and the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, which is characterised by nonlinear associations and countless other complex factors governing the distribution of infectious diseases. Here, we explore whether and how climate change might impact on diseases targeted by the Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)). We start our review with a short summary of the current evidence-base how climate change affects the distribution of infectious diseases. Next, we introduce biology-based models for predicting the distribution of infectious diseases in a future, warmer world. Two case studies are presented: the classical RNAS(+) disease schistosomiasis and an emerging disease, angiostrongyliasis, focussing on their occurrences in the People's Republic of China. Strengths and limitations of current models for predicting the impact of climate change on infectious diseases are discussed, and we propose model extensions to include social and ecological factors. Finally, we recommend that mitigation and adaptation strategies to diminish potential negative effects of climate change need to be developed in concert with key stakeholders so that surveillance and early-warning systems can be strengthened and the most vulnerable population groups protected. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Vulnerabilities of North American Shorebirds to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W.; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J. Michael

2014-01-01

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at–risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners–in–Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower–risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change. PMID:25268907

Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

PubMed

Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J Michael

2014-01-01

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

Development of a Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A Climate Resilience Screening Index is being developed that is applicable at multiple scales for the United States. Those scales include national, state, county and community. The index will be applied at the first three scales and at selected communities. The index was developed in order to explicitly include domains, indicators and metrics addressing environmental, economic and societal aspects of climate resilience. In addition, the index uses indicators and metrics that assess ecosystem, economic, governance and social services at these scales. Finally, we are developing forecasting approaches that can relate intended changes in services and governance to likely levels of changes in the resiliency of communities to climate change impacts. The present challenge is the incorporation of the index, its relationships to governance and the developing forecasting tools into Federal decision-making across US government and into state/county/community decision-making across the US. Governmental acceptance of changes to policies often can be just as challenging as the initial technical acceptance of the index and its relation to climate change. Climate Resilience Index is a requested product by ORD AA and EPA Administrator through SHC Program. Index needed to assess states', counties', and communities' abilities of recovery from climate events. Audience: Internal EPA (Administrator, IO, OLEM, OW and OAR) and external (states, counties and communities). Product

Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Bocedi, Greta; Atkins, Katherine E; Liao, Jishan; Henry, Roslyn C; Travis, Justin M J; Hellmann, Jessica J

2013-09-01

Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Lens on Climate Change (LOCC) - Engaging Diverse Secondary Students in Climate Science through Videography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Anne; Smith, Lesley; Leckey, Erin; Oonk, David; Woods, Melanie

2016-04-01

The impact of climate change is often discussed using examples from Polar Regions, such as decreasing polar bear populations, but significant changes are happening to local climates around the world. Climate change is often perceived as happening elsewhere, evoking a sense that others have to take action to mitigate climate change. Learning about climate change is very tangible for students when it addresses impacts they can observe close to their home. The Lens on Climate Change (LOCC) program engages students, ages 11to18 in producing short videos about climate change topics in Colorado, USA, specifically ones that are impacting students' lives and their local community. Participating schools are located in rural, suburban and urban Colorado many of which have diverse student populations often from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds. Project staff recruits university graduate and undergraduate students to mentor the students in their research and video production. With the help of these mentors, student groups select and research climate topics, interview science experts and stakeholders, and produce short videos. The program aims to engage students in self-motivated research and learning about a climate topic. Furthermore, it serves as a way to spark students' interest in a career in science by matching them with college students for the program duration and bringing them to a university campus for a final screening event. For many of the students it is their first visit to a college campus. The LOCC project aims to connect secondary students, who otherwise would not have this opportunity, with college life and the scientific community. Evaluation results show that the process of video production is a powerful tool for the students to explore and learn about climate change topics. Students and teachers appreciate the unique approach to learning. The here presented approach of teaching science with videography in an active, self-directed style can easily be transferred.

Urban planning as a tool to cope with climate change. Cooperation between the University of Lisbon and the Municipality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcoforado, M. J.; Andrade, H.; Lopes, A.

2009-09-01

Climate change is a current and urgent topic. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the concentration of population, infrastructures and activities and to their specific climatic features, for example the urban heat island. In certain cities, temperature has already risen to values predicted for the planet's mean temperature in 2100. Some questions arise: Is there a direct or indirect effect of urban warming upon planetary climate change? What are the consequences of global warming to the urban heat island? What can be done to cope with climate change impacts in urban areas without compromising their sustainability, that is, to minimise the impacts upon the environment while maintaining the quality of life of urban dwellers? On the other hand, cities have the potential (in terms of critical mass and technology) to promote innovative solutions that are easily reproducible on a wider scale. The great concentration of resources may, in certain cases, improve our capacity to take the most appropriate action. In cities, there are potentially less obstructions to the implementation of measures and to decision making than at a national and global level. So, the main question is: should we not consider cities as privileged places to test different types of adaptation to climate change? We are still at an initial stage in the development of a global answer to the threat of climate change and in this sense cities can be an advantageous starting point. Lisbon's case will be presented. Geographers form the University of Lisbon have worked together with the Municipality of Lisbon and have studied Lisbon's urban climate in order to give spatialized climate guidelines, both for the whole city and at a city district level. The mapping of Lisbon's physical features was done using a Geographical Information System. A "ventilation map” was produced using a Digital Terrain Model and data of urban roughness. A "built-density” map was also prepared based on the analysis of a Landsat image and field work. By crosstabulating these two layers, a final map depicting Lisbon's "homogeneous climatic-response units” was prepared and can be consulted at the Municipality site (http://pdm.cm-lisboa.pt/pdf/RPDMLisboa_avaliacao_climatica.pdf). Finally, a series of climatic guidelines for planning were put forth for the different units and are to be included in the next version of the Master Plan. Subsequently, a city district microclimatic study is being carried out in a fast growing urban area north of Lisbon. Climate guidelines have also been put forth. The increase of vegetation in certain areas, the improvement of green spaces, the adequate disposal of new buildings in relation to wind and solar radiation are some of the outlined measures. The application of adaptation measures to climate change in urban areas contribute, at the same time, to an improved urban environment with benefits on energy consumption, air quality, comfort and human health, among others.

Decoupling the direct and indirect effects of climate on plant litter decomposition: Accounting for stress-induced modifications in plant chemistry.

PubMed

Suseela, Vidya; Tharayil, Nishanth

2018-04-01

Decomposition of plant litter is a fundamental ecosystem process that can act as a feedback to climate change by simultaneously influencing both the productivity of ecosystems and the flux of carbon dioxide from the soil. The influence of climate on decomposition from a postsenescence perspective is relatively well known; in particular, climate is known to regulate the rate of litter decomposition via its direct influence on the reaction kinetics and microbial physiology on processes downstream of tissue senescence. Climate can alter plant metabolism during the formative stage of tissues and could shape the final chemical composition of plant litter that is available for decomposition, and thus indirectly influence decomposition; however, these indirect effects are relatively poorly understood. Climatic stress disrupts cellular homeostasis in plants and results in the reprogramming of primary and secondary metabolic pathways, which leads to changes in the quantity, composition, and organization of small molecules and recalcitrant heteropolymers, including lignins, tannins, suberins, and cuticle within the plant tissue matrix. Furthermore, by regulating metabolism during tissue senescence, climate influences the resorption of nutrients from senescing tissues. Thus, the final chemical composition of plant litter that forms the substrate of decomposition is a combined product of presenescence physiological processes through the production and resorption of metabolites. The changes in quantity, composition, and localization of the molecular construct of the litter could enhance or hinder tissue decomposition and soil nutrient cycling by altering the recalcitrance of the lignocellulose matrix, the composition of microbial communities, and the activity of microbial exo-enzymes via various complexation reactions. Also, the climate-induced changes in the molecular composition of litter could differentially influence litter decomposition and soil nutrient cycling. Compared with temperate ecosystems, the indirect effects of climate on litter decomposition in the tropics are not well understood, which underscores the need to conduct additional studies in tropical biomes. We also emphasize the need to focus on how climatic stress affects the root chemistry as roots contribute significantly to biogeochemical cycling, and on utilizing more robust analytical approaches to capture the molecular composition of tissue matrix that fuel microbial metabolism. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California

PubMed Central

Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

2014-01-01

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. PMID:24934878

Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions.

PubMed

Islam, Muhammad Saiful; Chaussalet, Thierry J; Koizumi, Naoru

2017-02-01

Identification of 'cut-points' or thresholds of climate factors would play a crucial role in alerting risks of climate change and providing guidance to policymakers. This study investigated a 'Climate Threshold' for emergency hospital admissions of chronic lower respiratory diseases by using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We analysed a unique longitudinal dataset (10 years, 2000-2009) on emergency hospital admissions, climate, and pollution factors for the Greater London. Our study extends existing work on this topic by considering non-linearity, lag effects between climate factors and disease exposure within the DLNM model considering B-spline as smoothing technique. The final model also considered natural cubic splines of time since exposure and 'day of the week' as confounding factors. The results of DLNM indicated a significant improvement in model fitting compared to a typical GLM model. The final model identified the thresholds of several climate factors including: high temperature (≥27°C), low relative humidity (≤ 40%), high Pm10 level (≥70-µg/m 3 ), low wind speed (≤ 2 knots) and high rainfall (≥30mm). Beyond the threshold values, a significantly higher number of emergency admissions due to lower respiratory problems would be expected within the following 2-3 days after the climate shift in the Greater London. The approach will be useful to initiate 'region and disease specific' climate mitigation plans. It will help identify spatial hot spots and the most sensitive areas and population due to climate change, and will eventually lead towards a diversified health warning system tailored to specific climate zones and populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using social network analysis to evaluate health-related adaptation decision-making in Cambodia.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

2014-01-30

Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or 'shadow networks') in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance 'map' in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

Using Social Network Analysis to Evaluate Health-Related Adaptation Decision-Making in Cambodia

PubMed Central

Bowen, Kathryn J.; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

2014-01-01

Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’) in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes. PMID:24487452

Climate Change Education Today in K-12: What's Happening in the Earth and Space Science Classroom?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzer, M. A.; National Earth Science Teachers Association

2011-12-01

Climate change is a highly interdisciplinary topic, involving not only multiple fields of science, but also social science and the humanities. There are many aspects of climate change science that make it particularly well-suited for exploration in the K-12 setting, including opportunities to explore the unifying processes of science such as complex systems, models, observations, change and evolution. Furthermore, this field of science offers the opportunity to observe the nature of science in action - including how scientists develop and improve their understanding through research and debate. Finally, climate change is inherently highly relevant to students - indeed, students today will need to deal with the consequences of the climate change. The science of climate change is clearly present in current science education standards, both at the National level as well as in the majority of states. Nonetheless, a significant number of teachers across the country report difficulties addressing climate change in the classroom. The National Earth Science Teachers Association has conducted several surveys of Earth and space science educators across the country over the past several years on a number of issues, including their needs and concerns, including their experience of external influences on what they teach. While the number of teachers that report external pressures to not teach climate change science are in the minority (and less than the pressure to not teach evolution and related topics), our results suggest that this pressure against climate change science in the K-12 classroom has grown over the past several years. Some teachers report being threatened by parents, being encouraged by administrators to not teach the subject, and a belief that the "two sides" of climate change should be taught. Survey results indicate that teachers in religious or politically-conservative districts are more likely to report difficulties in teaching about climate change than in other areas of the country. This presentation will provide an overview of our most recent survey results on climate change education in the K-12 Earth and space science classroom, including highlighting some of the strategies that teachers are using to bring this critically important area of science to their students.

Climate Impacts of Fire-Induced Land-Surface Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hao, X.; Qu, J. J.

2017-12-01

One of the consequences of wildfires is the changes in land-surface properties such as removal of vegetation. This will change local and regional climate through modifying the land-air heat and water fluxes. This study investigates mechanism by developing and a parameterization of fire-induced land-surface property changes and applying it to modeling of the climate impacts of large wildfires in the United States. Satellite remote sensing was used to quantitatively evaluate the land-surface changes from large fires provided from the Monitoring Trends in Burning Severity (MTBS) dataset. It was found that the changes in land-surface properties induced by fires are very complex, depending on vegetation type and coverage, climate type, season and time after fires. The changes in LAI are remarkable only if the actual values meet a threshold. Large albedo changes occur in winter for fires in cool climate regions. The signs are opposite between the first post-fire year and the following years. Summer day-time temperature increases after fires, while nigh-time temperature changes in various patterns. The changes are larger in forested lands than shrub / grassland lands. In the parameterization scheme, the detected post-fire changes are decomposed into trends using natural exponential functions and fluctuations of periodic variations with the amplitudes also determined by natural exponential functions. The final algorithm is a combination of the trends, periods, and amplitude functions. This scheme is used with Earth system models to simulate the local and regional climate effects of wildfires.

40 CFR 80.1450 - What are the registration requirements under the RFS program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... buildings to control ambient climate for human comfort, and no other purpose. (B) Affidavits from the final... of heating interior spaces of homes or buildings to control ambient climate for human comfort, and no....—(1) Any producer of renewable fuel, and any foreign ethanol producer who makes changes to his...

Stormwater Management in Response to Climate Change Impacts: Lessons from the Chesapeake Bay and Great Lakes Regions (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

This report was prepared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Air, Climate, and Energy (ACE) research program, located within the Office of Research and Development, with support from ICF International. One of the goals of the ACE research program is to provide sci...

Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

2014-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by changing the food price or food supply. Changes in river runoff can also make an impact on the hydropower efficiency. Comprehensive pictures of climate risks and their interconnections are clearly shown in a straightforward manner by the network diagram. We will have a discussion how our results can be helpful for our society to recognize the climate risk.

In Brief: Climate Change Technology Program Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierly, Eugene

2006-09-01

The U.S. Department of Energy released its Plan for Climate Change Technology Programs (CCTP) at a 20 September hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives Science Subcommittee on energy. The goal of the hearing, which was chaired by Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.), was to examine the Bush Administration's CCTP plan, review it in light of the Administration's stated goals, and determine what action might be undertaken to implement the plan. For details of the plan, see http://www.climatetechnology.gov/stratplan/final/index.htm

Confluence of climate change policies and international trade

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vickery, R.E. Jr.

1997-12-31

The paper summarizes market information on energy conservation and renewable energy industries in the U.S., and highlights activities of the International Trade Administration. International treaties agreements on environmental issues are examined with respect to their influence on U.S. trade promotion and job creation. A sectoral analysis of the economic impact of greenhouse gas emissions reductions on industries is very briefly summarized. Finally, the need for a climate change treaty in spite of possible adverse impacts is discussed. 1 tab.

Impacts of climate change on prioritizing conservation areas of hydrological ecosystem services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lien, Wan Yu; Lin, Yu Pin

2015-04-01

Ecosystem services (ESs) including hydrological services play important roles in our daily life and provide a lot of benefits for human beings from ecological systems. The systems and their services may be threatened by climate change from global to local scales. We herein developed a systematic approach to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological ecosystem services, such as water yield, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) retention, and soil retention in a watershed in Northern Taiwan. We first used an ecosystem service evaluation model, InVEST, to estimate the amount and spatial patterns of annual and monthly hydrological ecosystem services under historical weather data, and different climate change scenarios based on five GMSs. The monthly and annual spatiotemporal variations of the ESs were analyzed in this study. Finally, the multiple estimated ESs were considered as the protection conservation targets and regarded as the input data of the systematic conservation planning software, Zonation, to systematically prioritize reserve areas of the ESs under the climate change scenarios. The ES estimation results indicated that the increasing rainfall in wet season leads to the higher water yield and results in the higher sediment and nutrient export indirectly. The Zonation successfully fielded conservation priorities of the ESs. The conservation priorities of the ESs significantly varied spatially and monthly under the climate change scenarios. The ESs results also indicated that the areas where ESs values and conservation priorities with low resilience under climate change should be considered as high priority protected area to ensure the hydrological services in future. Our proposed approach is a novel systematic approach which can be applied to assess impacts of climate change on spatiotemporal variations of ESs as well as prioritize protected area of the ESs under various climate change scenarios. Keyword: climate change, ecosystem service, conservation planning, spatial analysis.

Response of evapotranspiration to changes in land use and land cover and climate in China during 2001-2013.

PubMed

Li, Gen; Zhang, Fangmin; Jing, Yuanshu; Liu, Yibo; Sun, Ge

2017-10-15

Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is a central component of the Earth's global energy balance and water cycle. Understanding ET is important in quantifying the impacts of human influences on the hydrological cycle and thus helps improving water use efficiency and strengthening water use planning and watershed management. China has experienced tremendous land use and land cover changes (LUCC) as a result of urbanization and ecological restoration under a broad background of climate change. This study used MODIS data products to analyze how LUCC and climate change affected ET in China in the period 2001-2013. We examined the separate contribution to the estimated ET changes by combining LUCC and climate data. Results showed that the average annual ET in China decreased at a rate of -0.6mm/yr from 2001 to 2013. Areas in which ET decreased significantly were mainly distributed in the northwest China, the central of southwest China, and most regions of south central and east China. The trends of four climatic factors including air temperature, wind speed, sunshine duration, and relative humidity were determined, while the contributions of these four factors to ET were quantified by combining the ET and climate datasets. Among the four climatic factors, sunshine duration and wind speed had the greatest influence on ET. LUCC data from 2001 to 2013 showed that forests, grasslands and croplands in China mutually replaced each other. The reduction of forests had much greater effects on ET than change by other land cover types. Finally, through quantitative separation of the distinct effects of climate change and LUCC on ET, we conclude that climate change was the more significant than LULC change in influencing ET in China during the period 2001-2013. Effective water resource management and vegetation-based ecological restoration efforts in China must consider the effects of climate change on ET and water availability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of the Changes of Drought Occurrence in Turkey Using Regional Climate Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibel Saygili, Fatma; Tufan Turp, M.; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2017-04-01

As a consequence of the negative impacts of climate change, Turkey, being a country in the Mediterranean Basin, is under a serious risk of increased drought conditions. In this study, it is aimed to determine and compare the spatial distributions of climatological drought probabilities for Turkey. For this purpose, by making use of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), the outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology are downscaled to 50km for Turkey. To make the future projection over Turkey for the period of 2071-2100 with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, the worst case emission pathway RCP8.5 is used. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values are computed and classified in accordance with the seven classifications of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Finally, the spatial distribution maps showing the changes in drought probabilities over Turkey are obtained in order to see the impact of climate change on Turkey's drought patterns.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

PubMed

Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

2012-04-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity

PubMed Central

Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

2013-01-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g., phenology), space (e.g., range) and self (e.g., physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesize their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. PMID:22257223

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China.

PubMed

Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara; Ji, Xiang

2016-01-01

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137-4,124 m to 286-4,396 m in the 2050s or 314-4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

PubMed Central

Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara

2016-01-01

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137–4,124 m to 286–4,396 m in the 2050s or 314–4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded. PMID:27547522

Values in Time Discounting.

PubMed

Heilmann, Conrad

2017-10-01

Controversies about time discounting loom large in decisions about climate change. Prominently, a particularly controversial debate about time discounting in climate change decision-making has been conducted within climate economics, between the authors of Stern et al. (Stern review on the economics of climate change, 2006) and their critics (most prominently Dasgupta in Comments on the Stern review's economics of climate change, 2006; Tol in Energy Environ 17(6):977-981, 2006; Weitzman in J Econ Lit XLV:703-724, 2007; Nordhaus in J Econ Lit XLV:686-702, 2007). The article examines the role of values in this debate. Firstly, it is shown that time discounting is a case in which values are key because it is at heart an ethical problem. Secondly, it is argued that time discounting in climate economics is a case of economists making frequent and routine references to ethical values and indeed conduct ethical debates with each other. Thirdly, it is argued that there is evidence for deep and pervasive entanglement between facts and values in the prevalent methodologies for time discounting. Finally, it is argued that this means that economists have given up the 'value-free ideal' concerning time discounting, and discussed how the current methodology of time discounting in economics can be improved.

Explaining topic prevalence in answers to open-ended survey questions about climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tvinnereim, Endre; Fløttum, Kjersti

2015-08-01

Citizens’ opinions are crucial for action on climate change, but are, owing to the complexity of the issue, diverse and potentially unformed. We contribute to the understanding of public views on climate change and to knowledge needed by decision-makers by using a new approach to analyse answers to the open survey question `what comes to mind when you hear the words `climate change’?’. We apply automated text analysis, specifically structural topic modelling, which induces distinct topics based on the relative frequencies of the words used in 2,115 responses. From these data, originating from the new, nationally representative Norwegian Citizen Panel, four distinct topics emerge: Weather/Ice, Future/Impact, Money/Consumption and Attribution. We find that Norwegians emphasize societal aspects of climate change more than do respondents in previous US and UK studies. Furthermore, variables that explain variation in closed questions, such as gender and education, yield different and surprising results when employed to explain variation in what respondents emphasize. Finally, the sharp distinction between scepticism and acceptance of conventional climate science, often seen in previous studies, blurs in many textual responses as scepticism frequently turns into ambivalence.

Late mid-Holocene sea-level oscillation: A possible cause

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, D. B.; Collins, E. S.

Sea level oscillated between 5500 and 3500 years ago at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, Chezzetcook and Baie Verte, Nova Scotia and Montmagny, Quebec. The oscillation is well constrained by foraminiferal marsh zonations in three locations and by diatoms in the fourth one. The implications are: (1) there was a eustatic sea-level oscillation of about 2-10 m in the late mid-Holocene on the southeast coast of North America (South Carolina to Quebec) that is not predicted by present geophysical models of relative sea-level change; (2) this oscillation coincides with oceanographic cooling on the east coast of Canada that we associate with melting ice; and (3) this sea- level oscillation/climatic event coincides exactly with the end of pyramid building in Egypt which is suggested to have resulted from a climate change (i.e. drought, cooling). This sea-level/climatic change is a prime example of feedback where climatic warming in the mid-Holocene promoted ice melt in the Arctic which subsequently caused climatic cooling by opening up Arctic channels releasing cold water into the Inner Labrador Current that continued to intensify until 4000 years ago. This sea-level event may also be the best way of measuring when the final ice melted since most estimates of the ages of the last melting are based on end moraine dates in the Arctic which may not coincide with when the last ice actually melted out, since there is no way of dating the final ice positions.

Wildlife habitat connectivity in the changing climate of New York's Hudson Valley.

PubMed

Howard, Timothy G; Schlesinger, Matthew D

2013-09-01

Maintaining and restoring connectivity are key adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change. We present a novel combination of species distribution and connectivity modeling using current and future climate regimes to prioritize connections among populations of 26 rare species in New York's Hudson Valley. We modeled patches for each species for each time period and modeled potential connections among habitat patches by finding the least-cost path for every patch-to-patch connection. Finally, we aggregated these patches and paths to the tax parcel, commonly the primary unit of conservation action. Under future climate regimes, suitable habitat was predicted to contract or appear upslope and farther north. On average, predicted patches were nine times smaller and paths were twice as long under future climate. Parcels within the Hudson Highlands, Shawangunk Ridge, Catskill Mountains, and Harlem Valley had high species overlap, with areas upslope and northward increasing in importance over time. We envision that land managers and conservation planners can use these results to help prioritize parcel-level conservation and management and thus support biodiversity adaptation to climate change. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Coupling Processes Between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Weisenstein, Debra; Rodriguez, Jose; Danilin, Michael; Scott, Courtney; Shia, Run-Lie; Eluszkiewicz, Junusz; Sze, Nien-Dak

1999-01-01

This is the final report. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes among atmospheric chemistry, aerosol and climate, all important for quantitative assessments of global change. Among our priority are changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The work emphasizes two important aspects: (1) AER's continued participation in preparation of, and providing scientific input for, various scientific reports connected with assessment of stratospheric ozone and climate. These include participation in various model intercomparison exercises as well as preparation of national and international reports. and (2) Continued development of the AER three-wave interactive model to address how the transport circulation will change as ozone and the thermal properties of the atmosphere change, and assess how these new findings will affect our confidence in the ozone assessment results.

Going with the flow: Hydrologic response of middle Lena River (Siberia) to the climate variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautier, Emmanuèle; Dépret, Thomas; Costard, François; Virmoux, Clément; Fedorov, Alexander; Grancher, Delphine; Konstantinov, Pavel; Brunstein, Daniel

2018-02-01

Recent observations indicate that over the last decades, climate change has increasingly influenced the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme climatic and hydrologic events. The main aim of this study is to determine the hydrologic response, especially the flood evolution, of the Lena River in Eastern Siberia to ongoing climate change. Draining the coldest region of the Northern Hemisphere, the Lena River is impacted by global warming, which is particularly pronounced in periglacial areas characterized by deep and continuous permafrost. We document the hydrologic variability of the Middle Lena River, first by characterizing trend and stationarity of monthly discharges. Second, we analyze on the basis of the peak over threshold method (POT) the temporal evolution of intensity and duration of three discharge classes: bar-full discharge, bank-full discharge and large floods. Finally, we also determined the dates of the flood beginning and of the flood peak. Data on mean monthly discharge and flood peaks are available since 1936 and daily discharges since 1954. Our results provide evidence for a net hydrologic change with an increase in the intensity and duration of floods in the two decades ending in 2012. The frequency of high floods is unprecedented, and small floods no longer occur. The tail of the temporal distribution of the flood peak is also changing. More frequent early floods are occurring in spring with secondary flood peaks in summer, the latest probably represents the most striking change. Furthermore, the changes have been accelerating since 2004. Finally, two islands were instrumented (2008-2012) in order to study the flooding dynamics with a better precision.

Hysteresis in the Central African Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, Stephan Alexander; Elias Bednar, Johannes; Gautam, Sishir; Petritsch, Richard; Schier, Franziska; Stanzl, Patrick

2014-05-01

Past climate change caused severe disturbances of the Central African rainforest belt, with forest fragmentation and re-expansion due to drier and wetter climate conditions. Besides climate, human induced forest degradation affected biodiversity, structure and carbon storage of Congo basin rainforests. Information on climatically stable, mature rainforest, unaffected by human induced disturbances, provides means of assessing the impact of forest degradation and may serve as benchmarks of carbon carrying capacity over regions with similar site and climate conditions. BioGeoChemical (BGC) ecosystem models explicitly consider the impacts of site and climate conditions and may assess benchmark levels over regions devoid of undisturbed conditions. We will present a BGC-model validation for the Western Congolian Lowland Rainforest (WCLRF) using field data from a recently confirmed forest refuge, show model - data comparisons for disturbed und undisturbed forests under different site and climate conditions as well as for sites with repeated assessment of biodiversity and standing biomass during recovery from intensive exploitation. We will present climatic thresholds for WCLRF stability, analyse the relationship between resilience, standing C-stocks and change in climate and finally provide evidence of hysteresis.

NASA and the National Climate Assessment: Promoting awareness of NASA Earth science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidner, A. K.

2014-12-01

NASA Earth science observations, models, analyses, and applications made significant contributions to numerous aspects of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) report and are contributing to sustained climate assessment activities. The agency's goal in participating in the NCA was to ensure that NASA scientific resources were made available to understand the current state of climate change science and climate change impacts. By working with federal agency partners and stakeholder communities to develop and write the report, the agency was able to raise awareness of NASA climate science with audiences beyond the traditional NASA community. To support assessment activities within the NASA community, the agency sponsored two competitive programs that not only funded research and tools for current and future assessments, but also increased capacity within our community to conduct assessment-relevant science and to participate in writing assessments. Such activities fostered the ability of graduate students, post-docs, and senior researchers to learn about the science needs of climate assessors and end-users, which can guide future research activities. NASA also contributed to developing the Global Change Information System, which deploys information from the NCA to scientists, decision makers, and the public, and thus contributes to climate literacy. Finally, NASA satellite imagery and animations used in the Third NCA helped the pubic and decision makers visualize climate changes and were frequently used in social media to communicate report key findings. These resources are also key for developing educational materials that help teachers and students explore regional climate change impacts and opportunities for responses.

Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Disasters for Small and Mid-Sized Streams due to Climate Change and Stream Improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, D.; Jun, H. D.; Kim, S.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment plays an important role in drawing up climate change adaptation plans. Although there are some studies on broad vulnerability assessment in Korea, there have been very few studies to develop and apply locally focused and specific sector-oriented climate change vulnerability indicators. Especially, there has seldom been any study to investigate the effect of an adaptation project on assessing the vulnerability status to climate change for fundamental local governments. In order to relieve adverse effects of climate change, Korean government has performed the project of the Major Four Rivers (Han, Geum, Nakdong and Yeongsan river) Restoration since 2008. It is expected that water level in main stream of 4 rivers will be dropped through this project, but flood effect will be mainly occurred in small and mid-sized streams which flows in main stream. Hence, we examined how much the project of the major four rivers restoration relieves natural disasters. Conceptual framework of vulnerability-resilience index to climate change for the Korean fundamental local governments is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Then, statistical data on scores of proxy variables assumed to comprise climate change vulnerability for local governments are collected. Proxy variables and estimated temporary weights of them are selected by surveying a panel of experts using Delphi method, and final weights are determined by modified Entropy method. Developed vulnerability-resilience index was applied to Korean fundamental local governments and it is calculated under each scenario as follows. (1) Before the major four rivers restoration, (2) 100 years after represented climate change condition without the major four rivers restoration, (3) After the major four rivers restoration without representing climate change (this means present climate condition) and (4) After the major four rivers restoration and 100 years after represented climate change condition. In the results of calculated vulnerability-resilience index of each scenario, it can be noticed that vulnerability of watersheds which are located near main stream of four rivers is alleviated, but because of climate change, vulnerability is getting high in most watersheds. Also, considering future climate change and river restoration, vulnerability of several watersheds is relieved by river restoration. Acknowledges This work was funded by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in Korea Program under Grant NEMA-10-NH-04.

Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

2017-12-01

Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

Climate change and highland malaria: fresh air for a hot debate.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Koenraadt, Constantianus J M

2010-03-01

In recent decades, malaria has become established in zones at the margin of its previous distribution, especially in the highlands of East Africa. Studies in this region have sparked a heated debate over the importance of climate change in the territorial expansion of malaria, where positions range from its neglect to the reification of correlations as causes. Here, we review studies supporting and rebutting the role of climatic change as a driving force for highland invasion by malaria. We assessed the conclusions from both sides of the argument and found that evidence for the role of climate in these dynamics is robust. However, we also argue that over-emphasizing the importance of climate is misleading for setting a research agenda, even one which attempts to understand climate change impacts on emerging malaria patterns. We review alternative drivers for the emergence of this disease and highlight the problems still calling for research if the multidimensional nature of malaria is to be adequately tackled. We also contextualize highland malaria as an ongoing evolutionary process. Finally, we present Schmalhausen's law, which explains the lack of resilience in stressed systems, as a biological principle that unifies the importance of climatic and other environmental factors in driving malaria patterns across different spatio-temporal scales.

A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

EDMONDS, JAMES A.; LINK, ROBERT; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T.

Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-seriesmore » observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.« less

Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pinter, N.; Fiedel, S.; Keeley, J.E.

2011-01-01

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt postglacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

PubMed Central

MIMURA, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment in Industrial Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. J.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change has recently caused frequent natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. Such disasters have also increased industrial damages. We must establish climate change adaptation policies to reduce the industrial damages. It is important to make accurate vulnerability assessment to establish climate change adaptation policies. Thus, this study aims at establishing a new index to assess vulnerability level in industrial complexes. Most vulnerability indices have been developed with subjective approaches, such as the Delphi survey and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The subjective approaches rely on the knowledge of a few experts, which provokes the lack of the reliability of the indices. To alleviate the problem, we have designed a vulnerability index incorporating objective approaches. We have investigated 42 industrial complex sites in Republic of Korea (ROK). To calculate weights of variables, we used entropy method as an objective method integrating the Delphi survey as a subjective method. Finally, we found our method integrating both subjective method and objective method could generate result. The integration of the entropy method enables us to assess the vulnerability objectively. Our method will be useful to establish climate change adaptation policies by reducing the uncertainties of the methods based on the subjective approaches.

Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey.

PubMed

Colagiuri, Ruth; Boylan, Sinead; Morrice, Emily

2015-10-16

Climate change and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are arguably the greatest global challenges of the 21st Century. However, the confluence between them remains under-examined and there is little evidence of a comprehensive, systematic approach to identifying research priorities to mitigate their joint impact. Consequently, we: (i) convened a workshop of academics (n = 25) from the Worldwide Universities Network to identify priority areas at the interface between NCDs and climate change; (ii) conducted a Delphi survey of international opinion leaders in public health and relevant other disciplines; and (iii) convened an expert panel to review and advise on final priorities. Three research areas (water security; transport; conceptualising NCD harms to support policy formation) were listed among the top 10 priorities by >90% of Delphi respondents, and ranked among the top 12 priorities by >60% of respondents who ranked the order of priority. A fourth area (reducing the carbon footprint of cities) was ranked highest by the same >60% of respondents. Our results are consistent with existing frameworks on health and climate change, and extends them by focusing specifically on NCDs. Researching these priorities could progress understanding of climate change and NCDs, and inform global and national policy decisions for mitigating associated harms.

Mapping of interconnection of climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokohata, Tokuta; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Nishina, Kazuya; Takanashi, Kiyoshi; Emori, Seita; Kiguchi, Masashi; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Honda, Yasushi; Okada, Masashi; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Yamamoto, Akitomo; Shigemitsu, Masahito; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Iwase, Kenta; Hanasaki, Naota; Ito, Akihiko; Sakurai, Gen; Iizumi, Toshichika; Oki, Taikan

2015-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by changing the food price or food supply. Changes in river runoff can also make an impact on the hydropower efficiency. Comprehensive pictures of climate risks and their interconnections are clearly shown in a straightforward manner by the network diagram. We will have a discussion how our results can be helpful for our society to recognize the climate risk.

Talking Climate Science in a Changing Media Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullen, H. M.

2014-12-01

Founded in 2008 by leading scientists and communications experts at Princeton, Yale and Stanford, Climate Central brings together award-winning journalists and internationally recognized scientists to report the science and impacts of climate change through its research and journalism programs. Climate Central works to tackle the misperception that climate change is a distant thing - affecting other people and other places - by demonstrating the local and personal impacts of global warming. This talk will focus on describing three important Climate Central initiatives. First, our Climate Matters program delivers localized climate information at the regional and local level to weathercasters around the U.S., providing ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses that put climate change in a local context. After three years, the program has grown from a pilot with just one TV meteorologist in Columbia, South Carolina to a network of more than 150 weathercasters across the country. Climate Central was also closely involved in the development and production of Years of Living Dangerously - a 9-part global warming documentary that premiered in April 2014. Finally, the World Weather Attribution project is a new initiative that aims to identify the human fingerprint in certain types of extreme weather events, including sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events, heavy rainfall events/flooding, and drought. Our goal is to objectively and transparently assess certain extreme events and equip journalists and scientists with the tools to provide the larger global warming context in real-time while there is still media interest.

EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDL Pilot – South Fork Nooksack River, Washington Final Report

EPA Science Inventory

This final report provides an overarching summary of the pilot research project, including the methods used in and the findings of the quantitative and qualitative assessments. It is written to appeal to a wide audience of policy makers, managers, agency staff and the general pub...

Climate change and our environment: the effect on respiratory and allergic disease.

PubMed

Barne, Charles; Alexis, Neil E; Bernstein, Jonathan A; Cohn, John R; Demain, Jeffrey G; Horner, Elliot; Levetin, Estelle; Nei, Andre; Phipatanakul, Wanda

2013-03-01

Climate change is a constant and ongoing process. It is postulated that human activities have reached a point at which we are producing global climate change. It provides suggestions to help the allergist/environmental physician integrate recommendations about improvements in outdoor and indoor air quality and the likely response to predicted alterations in the earth's environment into his or her patient's treatment plan. It incorporates references retrieved from Pub Med searches for topics, including:climate change, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gasses, air pollution, particulates, black carbon, soot and sea level, as well as references contributed by the individual authors. Many changes that affect respiratory disease are anticipated.Examples of responses to climate change include energy reduction retrofits in homes that could potentially affect exposure to allergens and irritants, more hot sunny days that increase ozone-related difficulties, and rises in sea level or altered rainfall patterns that increase exposure to damp indoor environments.Climate changes can also affect ecosystems, manifested as the appearance of stinging and biting arthropods in new areas.Higher ambient carbon dioxide concentrations, warmer temperatures, and changes in floristic zones could potentially increase exposure to ragweed and other outdoor allergens,whereas green practices such as composting can increase allergen and irritant exposure. Finally, increased energy costs may resultin urban crowding and human source pollution, leading to changes in patterns of infectious respiratory illnesses. Improved governmental controls on airborne pollutants could lead to cleaner air and reduced respiratory diseases but will meet strong opposition because of their effect on business productivity. The allergy community must therefore adapt, as physician and research scientists always have, by anticipating the needs of patients and by adopting practices and research methods to meet changing environmental conditions.

Empowering America's Communities to Prepare for the Effects of Climate Change: Developing Actionable Climate Science Under the President's Climate Action Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, P. B.; Colohan, P.; Driggers, R.; Herring, D.; Laurier, F.; Petes, L.; Ruffo, S.; Tilmes, C.; Venkataraman, B.; Weaver, C. P.

2014-12-01

Effective adaptation to impacts of climate change requires best-available information. To be most useful, this information should be easily found, well-documented, and translated into tools that decision-makers use and trust. To meet these needs, the President's Climate Action Plan includes efforts to develop "actionable climate science". The Climate Data Initiative (CDI) leverages the Federal Government's extensive, open data resources to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in support of actions to prepare for climate change. The Initiative forges commitments and partnerships from the private, NGO, academic, and public sectors to create data-driven tools. Open data from Federal agencies to support this innovation is available on Climate.Data.gov, initially focusing on coastal flooding but soon to expand to topics including food, energy, water, energy, transportation, and health. The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) will facilitate access to data-driven resilience tools, services, and best practices, including those accessible through the CDI. The CRT will also include access to training and tutorials, case studies, engagement forums, and other information sources. The Climate Action Plan also calls for a public-private partnership on extreme weather risk, with the goal of generating improved assessments of risk from different types of extreme weather events, using methods and data that are transparent and accessible. Finally, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and associated agencies work to advance the science necessary to inform decisions and sustain assessments. Collectively, these efforts represent increased emphasis across the Federal Government on the importance of information to support climate resilience.

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach Using Expert Judgement, Volume II: Results for the Massachusetts Bays Program (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared a report exploring a new methodology fo...

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach Using Expert Judgment, Volume I: Results for the San Francisco Estuary Partnership (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new metho...

BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the release of the final report, BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications. This report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the Better Assessment Science Integrating point & Non-point Sources (BASINS) and the Water Erosion Prediction Project Climate Assessment Tool (WEPPCAT). The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments of the potential effects of climate change on streamflow and water quality. This report presents a series of short, illustrative case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools.

Plasticity in functional traits in the context of climate change: a case study of the subalpine forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae).

PubMed

Anderson, Jill T; Gezon, Zachariah J

2015-04-01

Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ, and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low-elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2-3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco-evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Odyssey: Communicating Coastal Change through Art, Science, and Sail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klos, P. Z.; Holtsnider, L.

2016-12-01

Climate Odyssey (climateodyssey.org) is a year-long sailing expedition and continuing collaboration aimed at using overlaps in science and visual art to communicate coastal climate change impacts and solutions. We, visual artist Lucy Holtsnider and climate scientist Zion Klos, are using our complimentary skills in art, science and communication to engage audiences both affectively and cognitively regarding the urgency of climate change through story and visualization. In July of 2015, we embarked on the sailing portion of Climate Odyssey, beginning in Lake Michigan, continuing along the Eastern Seaboard, and concluding in May 2016 in the tropics. Along the way we photographed climate change impacts and adaptation strategies, interviewed stakeholders, scientists, and artists. We are now sharing our photographs and documented encounters through a tangible artist's book, interactive digital map, and blog. Each of our images added to the artist's book and digital map are linked to relevant blog entries and other external scientific resources, making the map both an aesthetic piece of art and an engaging tool for sharing the science of climate change impacts and solutions. After completing the sailing component of the project, we are now working to finalize our media and share our pieces with the public via libraries, galleries, and classrooms in coastal communities. At AGU, we will share with our peers the completed version of the artist's book, digital map, and online blog so we can both discuss public engagement strategies and showcase this example of art-science outreach with the broader science communication community.

Presentation of uncertainties on web platforms for climate change information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, Thomas; Wrobel, Markus; Reusser, Dominik

2014-05-01

Climate research has a long tradition, however there is still uncertainty about the specific effects of climate change. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to the challenge that the scientific information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, however, the complexity of the science behind needs to be incorporated. In particular, this requires the explicit representation of spatial and temporal uncertainty information to lay people. Within this talk/poster we survey how climate change and climate impact uncertainty information is presented on various climate service web-based platforms. We outline how the specifics of this medium make it challenging to find adequate and readable representations of uncertainties. First, we introduce a multi-step approach in communicating the uncertainty basing on a typology of uncertainty distinguishing between epistemic, natural stochastic, and human reflexive uncertainty. Then, we compare existing concepts and representations for uncertainty communication with current practices on web-based platforms, including own solutions within our web platforms ClimateImpactsOnline and ci:grasp. Finally, we review surveys on how spatial uncertainty visualization techniques are conceived by untrainded users.

Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glantz, M.H.; Moore, C.M.; Streets, D.G.

This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have beenmore » proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.« less

Uncertainties in Climate Change, Following the Causal Chain from Human Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prather, M. J.; Match Group,.

2009-12-01

As part of a UNFCCC initiative to attribute climate change to individual countries, a research group (MATCH) examined the quantifiable link between emissions and climate change. A constrained propagation of errors was developed that tracks uncertainties from reporting human activities to greenhouse gas emissions, to increasing abundances of greenhouse gases, to radiative forcing of climate, and finally to climate change. As a case study, we consider the causal chain for greenhouse gases emitted by developed nations since national reporting began in 1990. We combine uncertainties in the forward modeling at each step with top-down constraints on the observed changes in greenhouse gases and temperatures, although the propagation of uncertainties remains problematical. In this study, we find that global surface temperature increased by +0.11 C in 2003 due to the developed nations’ emissions of Kyoto greenhouse gases from 1990 to 2002 with a 68%-confidence uncertainty range of +0.08 C to +0.14 C. Uncertainties in climate response dominate this overall range, but uncertainties in emissions, particularly for land-use change and forestry and the non-CO2 greenhouse gases, are responsible for almost half. Bar chart of RF components & 68%-confidence intervals averaged over first and last half of 20th century, showing importance of volcanoes. Reduction in atmospheric CO2 (ppm) relative to observed increase as calculated without Annex-I(reporting) emissions, showing the 16%-to-84%-confidence range.

Climate Change and Cerebrospinal Meningitis in the Ghanaian Meningitis Belt

PubMed Central

Codjoe, Samuel Nii Ardey; Nabie, Vivian Adams

2014-01-01

Cerebrospinal meningitis (CSM) is one of the infectious diseases likely to be affected by climate change. Although there are a few studies on the climate change-CSM nexus, none has considered perceptions of community members. However, understanding public perception in relation to a phenomenon is very significant for the design of effective communication and mitigation strategies as well as coping and adaptation strategies. This paper uses focus group discussions (FGDs) to fill this knowledge lacuna. Results show that although a few elderly participants ascribed fatal causes (disobedience to gods, ancestors, and evil spirits) to CSM infections during FGDs, majority of participants rightly linked CSM infections to dry, very hot and dusty conditions experienced during the dry season. Finally, community members use a suite of adaptation options to curb future CSM epidemics. PMID:25003550

Climate and reproduction of grizzly bears in Yellowstone National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Picton, Harold D.

1978-01-01

Controversy surrounds the conflicts between the requirements of human safety and the preservation of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in western North America. It has been difficult to separate the effect of factors such as the closure of garbage dumps from that of the climate. It has also proved difficult to relate climatic data to changes in the populations of large mammals. I report here a correlation of climatic change with fluctuations in the sizes of litters of grizzly bears born in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, during 1958–1976. The decrease in litter sizes observed since the closure of garbage dumps seems to be largely a consequence of unfavourable weather during the periods of the final fattening of the mother, winter sleep, birth, lactation and early spring foraging. This study represents one of the few times that the effects of climate have been demonstrated for large omnivorous or carnivorous mammals.

Final Technical Report for DOE Award SC0006616

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Andrew

2015-08-01

This report summarizes research carried out by the project "Collaborative Research, Type 1: Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoonal Asia. This collaborative project brought together climate dynamicists (UCLA, IRI), dendroclimatologists (LDEO Tree Ring Laboratory), computer scientists (UCI), and hydrologists (Columbia Water Center, CWC), together with applied scientists in climate risk management (IRI) to create new scientific approaches to quantify and exploit the role of climate variability and change in the growing water crisis across southern and eastern Asia. This project developed new tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions for rivers in monsoonal Asia; improved understanding of hydrologic spatio-temporal modesmore » of variability over monsoonal Asia on interannual-to-centennial time scales; assessed decadal predictability of hydrologic spatio-temporal modes; developed stochastic simulation tools for creating downscaled future climate scenarios based on historical/proxy data and GCM climate change; and developed stochastic reservoir simulation and optimization for scheduling hydropower, irrigation and navigation releases.« less

The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffert, M.I.

1996-10-01

This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic changemore » from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.« less

Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment: An overview of the IPCC SREX report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Nicholls, N.; Easterling, D.; Goodess, C. M.; Kanae, S.; Kossin, J.; Luo, Y.; Marengo, J.; McInnes, K.; Rahimi, M.; Reichstein, M.; Sorteberg, A.; Vera, C.; Zhang, X.

2012-04-01

In April 2009, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) decided to prepare a new special report with involvement of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) on the topic "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation" (SREX, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/). This special report reviews the scientific literature on past and projected changes in weather and climate extremes, and the relevance of such changes to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The SREX Summary for Policymakers was approved at an IPCC Plenary session on November 14-18, 2011, and the full report is planned for release in February 2012. This presentation will provide an overview on the structure and contents of the SREX, focusing on Chapter 3: "Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment" [1]. It will in particular present the main findings of the chapter, including differences between the SREX's conclusions and those of the IPCC Fourth Assessment of 2007, and the implications of this new assessment for disaster risk reduction. Finally, aspects relevant to impacts on the biogeochemical cycles will also be addressed. [1] Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C.M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Kossin, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Sorteberg, C. Vera, and X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost and adaptation cost in Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, H. G.; Sung, S.; Jung, T. Y.

2015-12-01

Various studies show that raising the temperature as well as storms, cold snap, raining and drought caused by climate change. And variety disasters have had a damage to mankind. The world risk report(2012, The Nature Conservancy) and UNU-EHS (the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security) reported that more and more people are exposed to abnormal weather such as floods, drought, earthquakes, typhoons and hurricanes over the world. In particular, the case of Korea, we influenced by various pollutants which are occurred in Northeast Asian countries, China and Japan, due to geographical meteorological characteristics. These contaminants have had a significant impact on air quality with the pollutants generated in Korea. Recently, around the world continued their effort to reduce greenhouse gas and to improve air quality in conjunction with the national or regional development goals priority. China is also working on various efforts in accordance with the international flows to cope with climate change and air pollution. In the future, effect of climate change and air quality in Korea and Northeast Asia will be change greatly according to China's growth and mitigation policies. The purpose of this study is to minimize the damage caused by climate change on the Korean peninsula through an integrated approach taking into account the mitigation and adaptation plan. This study will suggest a climate change strategy at the national level by means of a comprehensive economic analysis of the impacts and mitigation of climate change. In order to quantify the impact and damage cost caused by climate change scenarios in a regional scale, it should be priority variables selected in accordance with impact assessment of climate change. The sectoral impact assessment was carried out on the basis of selected variables and through this, to derive the methodology how to estimate damage cost and adaptation cost. And then, the methodology was applied in Korea. Finally, we build an integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost, and adaptation cost by climate change

Learning as change: Responding to socio-scientific issues through informal education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Lauren Brooks

Informal learning is an important venue for educating the general public about complex socio-scientific issues: intersections of scientific understanding and society. My dissertation is a multi-tiered analysis of how informal education, and particularly informal educators, can leverage learning to respond to one particular socio-scientific issue: climate change. Life-long, life-wide, and life-deep learning not only about the science of climate change, but how communities and society as a whole can respond to it in ways that are commensurate with its scale are necessary. In my three-article dissertation, I investigated the changes in practice and learning that informal educators from a natural history museum underwent in the process of implementing a new type of field trip about climate change. This study focused on inquiry-based learning principles taken on by the museum educators, albeit in different ways: learner autonomy, conversation, and deep investigation. My second article, a short literature review, makes the argument that climate change education must have goals beyond simply increasing learners' knowledge of climate science, and proposes three research-based principles for such learning: participation, relevance, and interconnectedness. These principles are argued to promote learning to respond to climate change as well as increased collective efficacy, necessary for responding. Finally, my third article is an in-depth examination of a heterogeneous network of informal educators and environmental professionals who worked together to design and implement a city-wide platform for informal climate change learning. By conceptualizing climate change learning at the level of the learning ecology, educators and learners are able to see how it can be responded to at the community level, and understand how climate change is interconnected with other scientific, natural, and social systems. I briefly discuss a different socio-scientific issue to which these principles can be applied: heritable, human manipulation of other biological entities; in other words, genetic engineering.

Life in the clouds: are tropical montane cloud forests responding to changes in climate?

PubMed

Hu, Jia; Riveros-Iregui, Diego A

2016-04-01

The humid tropics represent only one example of the many places worldwide where anthropogenic disturbance and climate change are quickly affecting the feedbacks between water and trees. In this article, we address the need for a more long-term perspective on the effects of climate change on tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) in order to fully assess the combined vulnerability and long-term response of tropical trees to changes in precipitation regimes, including cloud immersion. We first review the ecophysiological benefits that cloud water interception offers to trees in TMCF and then examine current climatological evidence that suggests changes in cloud base height and impending changes in cloud immersion for TMCF. Finally, we propose an experimental approach to examine the long-term dynamics of tropical trees in TMCF in response to environmental conditions on decade-to-century time scales. This information is important to assess the vulnerability and long-term response of TMCF to changes in cloud cover and fog frequency and duration.

Integrating Climate Change into Great Lakes Protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedman, S.

2012-12-01

Climate change is now recognized as one of the greatest threats to the Great Lakes. Projected climate change impacts to the Great Lakes include increases in surface water and air temperature; decreases in ice cover; shorter winters, early spring, and longer summers; increased frequency of intense storms; more precipitation falling as rain in the winter; less snowfall; and variations in water levels, among other effects. Changing climate conditions may compromise efforts to protect and restore the Great Lakes ecosystem and may lead to irrevocable impacts on the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of the Great Lakes. Examples of such potential impacts include the transformation of coastal wetlands into terrestrial ecosystems; reduced fisheries; increased beach erosion; change in forest species composition as species migrate northward; potential increase in toxic substance concentrations; potential increases in the frequency and extent of algal blooms; degraded water quality; and a potential increase in invasive species. The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, signed into law by President Obama in 2010, represents the commitment of the federal government to protect, restore, and maintain the Great Lakes ecosystem. The GLRI Action Plan, issued in February 2010, identifies five focus areas: - Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern - Invasive Species - Nearshore Health and Nonpoint Source Pollution - Habitat and Wildlife Protection and Restoration - Accountability, Education, Monitoring, Evaluation, Communication, and Partnerships The Action Plan recognizes that the projected impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes have implications across all focus areas and encourages incorporation of climate change considerations into GLRI projects and programs as appropriate. Under the GLRI, EPA has funded climate change-related work by states, tribes, federal agencies, academics and NGOs through competitive grants, state and tribal capacity grants, and Interagency Agreements. EPA has provided GLRI funding for a diverse suite of climate change-related projects including Great Lakes climate change research and modeling; adaptation plan development and implementation; ecosystem vulnerability assessments; outreach and education programs; habitat restoration and protection projects that will increase ecosystem resilience; and other projects that address climate change impacts. This presentation will discuss how the GLRI is helping to improve the climate change science needed to support the Action Plan. It will further describe how the GLRI is helping coordinate climate change efforts among Great Lakes states, tribes, Federal agencies, and other stakeholders. Finally, it will discuss how the GLRI is facilitating adaptation planning by our Great Lakes partners. The draft Lake Superior Ecosystem Climate Change Adaptation Plan serves as a case study for an integrated, collaborative, and coordinated climate change effort.

Assessing ExxonMobil’s climate change communications (1977-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supran, Geoffrey; Oreskes, Naomi

2017-08-01

This paper assesses whether ExxonMobil Corporation has in the past misled the general public about climate change. We present an empirical document-by-document textual content analysis and comparison of 187 climate change communications from ExxonMobil, including peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed publications, internal company documents, and paid, editorial-style advertisements (‘advertorials’) in The New York Times. We examine whether these communications sent consistent messages about the state of climate science and its implications—specifically, we compare their positions on climate change as real, human-caused, serious, and solvable. In all four cases, we find that as documents become more publicly accessible, they increasingly communicate doubt. This discrepancy is most pronounced between advertorials and all other documents. For example, accounting for expressions of reasonable doubt, 83% of peer-reviewed papers and 80% of internal documents acknowledge that climate change is real and human-caused, yet only 12% of advertorials do so, with 81% instead expressing doubt. We conclude that ExxonMobil contributed to advancing climate science—by way of its scientists’ academic publications—but promoted doubt about it in advertorials. Given this discrepancy, we conclude that ExxonMobil misled the public. Our content analysis also examines ExxonMobil’s discussion of the risks of stranded fossil fuel assets. We find the topic discussed and sometimes quantified in 24 documents of various types, but absent from advertorials. Finally, based on the available documents, we outline ExxonMobil’s strategic approach to climate change research and communication, which helps to contextualize our findings.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

Disputed climate science in the media: do countries matter?

PubMed

Grundmann, Reiner; Scott, Mike

2014-02-01

This article presents findings from a large-scale newspaper analysis of climate change discourses in four developed countries, using corpus linguistics methodology. We map the discourse over time, showing peaks and troughs of attention and explaining their causes. Different connotations of common terms such as global warming and climate change in different countries are analysed. Cluster and key-word analysis show the relative salience of specific words and word combinations during crucial periods. We identify main claims makers and the relative visibility of advocates and sceptics. The main finding is that former are far more prominent in all countries. We also look at the coverage of 'climategate'. Finally, we make reference to existing theoretical frameworks.

Built Expansion and Global Climate Change Drive Projected Urban Heat: Relative Magnitudes, Interactions, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2016-12-01

Surface climates are projected to warm due to global climate change over the course of the 21st century, and demographic projections suggest urban areas in the United States will continue to expand and develop, with associated local climate outcomes. Interactions between these two drivers of urban heat have not been robustly quantified to date. Here, simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (coupled to a Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model) are performed at 20 km resolution over the continental U.S. for two 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009) and end-of-century (2090-2099). Present and end of century urban land use are derived from the Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios. Modelled effects on urban climates are evaluated regionally. Sensitivity to climate projection (Community Climate System Model 4.0, RCP 4.5 vs. RCP 8.5) and associated urban development scenarios are assessed. Effects on near-surface urban air temperature of RCP8.5 climate change are greater than those attributable to the corresponding urban development in many regions. Interaction effects vary by region, and while of lesser magnitude, are not negligible. Moreover, urban development and its interactions with RCP8.5 climate change modify the distribution of convective precipitation over the eastern US. Interaction effects result from the different meteorological effects of urban areas under current and future climate. Finally, the potential for design implementations such as green roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Impacts of these implementations on precipitation are also assessed.

The impacts of climate change on irrigation and crop production in Northeast China and implications for energy use and GHG Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Tingting; Wang, Jinxia; Huang, Jikun; Xie, Wei; Zhu, Tingju

2018-06-01

The water-food-energy-GHG nexus under climate change has been gaining increasing attention from both the research and policy communities, especially over the past several years. However, most existing nexus studies are qualitative and explorative in nature. So far, very few studies provide integrated analysis of this nexus across all the four sectors. The purpose of this paper is to examine this nexus by assessing the effects of climate change on agricultural production through the change in water availability, evaluating the adjustment responses and resulting energy consumption and GHG emission, with the Northeast China as a case study. Based on our simulation results, by 2030, climate change is projected to increase water supply and demand gap for irrigation in Northeast China. Due to the increase in water scarcity, irrigated areas will decrease, and the cropping pattern will be adjusted by increasing maize sown areas and decreasing rice sown areas. As a result, the total output of crops and profits will clearly be reduced. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emission from irrigation will be reduced. This study suggests that climate change impact assessment fully consider the nexus among water, food, energy and GHG; however, more studies need to be conducted in the future.

Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Desprez, Marine; Fay, Remi; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Caswell, Hal

2018-07-01

Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd oxn behalf of British Ecological Society.

Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: A single watershed study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang

2010-12-01

Climatic variability and forest disturbance are commonly recognized as two major drivers influencing streamflow change in large-scale forested watersheds. The greatest challenge in evaluating quantitative hydrological effects of forest disturbance is the removal of climatic effect on hydrology. In this paper, a method was designed to quantify respective contributions of large-scale forest disturbance and climatic variability on streamflow using the Willow River watershed (2860 km2) located in the central part of British Columbia, Canada. Long-term (>50 years) data on hydrology, climate, and timber harvesting history represented by equivalent clear-cutting area (ECA) were available to discern climatic and forestry influences on streamflow by three steps. First, effective precipitation, an integrated climatic index, was generated by subtracting evapotranspiration from precipitation. Second, modified double mass curves were developed by plotting accumulated annual streamflow against annual effective precipitation, which presented a much clearer picture of the cumulative effects of forest disturbance on streamflow following removal of climatic influence. The average annual streamflow changes that were attributed to forest disturbances and climatic variability were then estimated to be +58.7 and -72.4 mm, respectively. The positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) values in streamflow change indicated opposite change directions, which suggest an offsetting effect between forest disturbance and climatic variability in the study watershed. Finally, a multivariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was generated to establish quantitative relationships between accumulated annual streamflow deviation attributed to forest disturbances and annual ECA. The model was then used to project streamflow change under various timber harvesting scenarios. The methodology can be effectively applied to any large-scale single watershed where long-term data (>50 years) are available.

Comparing the Climate Agendas of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, S. R.; Oculi, N.

2016-12-01

Effective mitigation of and adaptation to climate change requires multilateral coordination of numerous political and scientific activities and priorities. Since its inception in 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has sought a comprehensive international response to the climate threat, culminating most recently in December 2015 at COP 21. The Paris Agreement was lauded as a landmark step toward global climate action as it represented a consensus of 196 countries to limit global warming to 2° C above pre-industrial levels with an additional stated goal to "pursue efforts" to limit the increase to 1.5° C. However, taken in a vacuum, the global Agreement masks important differences among its signatory countries in capabilities and priorities for tackling climate change, and obscures pathways for place-specific scientific research and intervention. Here we present a quantitative content analysis of official UNFCCC documents including COP transcripts, meeting agendas, and mitigation commitments outlined in pledged Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to reveal areas of alignment and divergence among UNFCCC stakeholders. Textual cluster analysis illustrates the relative salience of key climate-related discourses (e.g. vulnerability; loss and damage; decarbonization; technology transfer) in the agendas of negotiating parties, and the degree to which the interests of some parties are over- or under-represented in the final "consensus" agreement. Understanding these disparities, and their potential to promote cooperation and/or disagreement among stakeholders, will be critical to scientists' efforts to develop equitable and sustainable long-term climate solutions.

Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization), tailored case by case to different sets of natural hazards and elements at risk. Finally, the multi-risk assessment integrates the multi-hazard with the multi-vulnerability index of exposed receptors, providing a relative ranking of areas and targets potentially affected by multiple risks in the considered region. The methodology was applied to the North Adriatic coast (Italy) producing a range of GIS-based multi-hazard, exposure, multi-vulnerability and multi-risk maps that can be used by policy-makers to define risk management and adaptation strategies. Results show that areas affected by higher multi-hazard scores are located close to the coastline where all the investigated hazards are present. Multi-vulnerability assumes relatively high scores in the whole case study, showing that beaches, wetlands, protected areas and river mouths are the more sensible targets. The final estimate of multi-risk for coastal municipalities provides useful information for local public authorities to set future priorities for adaptation and define future plans for shoreline and coastal management in view of climate change.

Ecosystem and Food Security in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, C. B.

2011-12-01

Observed and projected impacts of climate change for ecosystem and food security tend to appear as changes in the risk of both desirable and undesirable outcomes. As a consequence, it is useful to frame the challenge of adaptation to a changing climate as a problem in risk management. For some kinds of impacts, the risks are relatively well characterized. For others, they are poorly known. Especially for the cases where the risks are poorly known, effective adaptation will need to consider approaches that build dynamic portfolios of options, based on learning from experience. Effective adaptation approaches also need to consider the risks of threshold-type responses, where opportunities for gradual adaptation based on learning may be limited. Finally, effective adaptation should build on the understanding that negative impacts on ecosystems and food security often result from extreme events, where a link to climate change may be unclear now and far into the future. Ecosystem and food security impacts that potentially require adaptation to a changing climate vary from region to region and interact strongly with actions not related to climate. In many ecosystems, climate change shifts the risk profile to increase risks of wildfire and biological invasions. Higher order risks from factors like pests and pathogens remain difficult to quantify. For food security, observational evidence highlights threshold-like behavior to high temperature in yields of a number of crops. But the risks to food security may be much broader, encompassing risks to availability of irrigation, degradation of topsoil, and challenges of storage and distribution. A risk management approach facilitates consideration of all these challenges with a unified framework.

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

PubMed

Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

2016-01-01

Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Cecil, L. Dewayne; Horton, Radley M.; Gordon, Roman; McCollum, Raymond (Brown, Douglas); Brown, Douglas; Killough, Brian; Goldberg, Richard; Greeley, Adam P.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Assessing climate-change risks to cultural and natural resources in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, James R.; Waste, Stephen M.; Maule, Alec G.

2014-01-01

We provide an overview of an interdisciplinary special issue that examines the influence of climate change on people and fish in the Yakima River Basin, USA. Jenni et al. (2013) addresses stakeholder-relevant climate change issues, such as water availability and uncertainty, with decision analysis tools. Montag et al. (2014) explores Yakama Tribal cultural values and well-being and their incorporation into the decision-making process. Graves and Maule (2012) simulates effects of climate change on stream temperatures under baseline conditions (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios (increased air temperature of 1 °C and 2 °C). Hardiman and Mesa (2013) looks at the effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth with a bioenergetics model. Finally, Hatten et al. (2013) examines how changes in stream flow will affect salmonids with a rule-based fish habitat model. Our simulations indicate that future summer will be a very challenging season for salmonids when low flows and high water temperatures can restrict movement, inhibit or alter growth, and decrease habitat. While some of our simulations indicate salmonids may benefit from warmer water temperatures and increased winter flows, the majority of simulations produced less habitat. The floodplain and tributary habitats we sampled are representative of the larger landscape, so it is likely that climate change will reduce salmonid habitat potential throughout particular areas of the basin. Management strategies are needed to minimize potential salmonid habitat bottlenecks that may result from climate change, such as keeping streams cool through riparian protection, stream restoration, and the reduction of water diversions. An investment in decision analysis and support technologies can help managers understand tradeoffs under different climate scenarios and possibly improve water and fish conservation over the next century.

Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vammen Larsen, Sanne, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk; Kornov, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk; Wejs, Anja, E-mail: wejs@plan.aau.dk

2012-02-15

This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations asmore » to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Synergies between climate change mitigation, adaptation and other environmental concerns are not addressed in Danish SEA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Institutional explanations relate to organisational set-ups and understandings of climate change as a new planning issue. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper points to a need for developing SEA to include climate change in a more systematic and integrated manner.« less

Final Rule for Finding That Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Aircraft Cause or Contribute to Air Pollution That May Reasonably Be Anticipated To Endanger Public Health and Welfare

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EPA finalized findings that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from certain classes of engines used in aircraft contribute to the air pollution that causes climate change endangering public health and welfare under section 231(a) of the Clean Air Act.

Using Planetarium Programs to Teach Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.; Handron, K.

2007-12-01

By creating engaging and entertaining fulldome immersive planetarium shows, we are able to "sneak the science in", teaching about climate change on short, long, and extremely long time scales. In our show "Force 5", we talk about the shortest times: not really climate, but weather, including hurricanes, tornadoes, and space storms. Our show "Night of the Titanic" extends the time line to include changes in ocean currents, glaciers, and icebergs on decadal time periods, associated with global warming and changes in the sun. Our show "Dinosaur Prophecy" uses four dinosaur death sites to investigate the long-term changes or events that caused their demise. And finally, in "Lucy's Cradle: the Birth of Wonder" we investigate very long-term changes that spurred human development and migration. In this paper we discuss the techniques of creating planetarium shows and the "Discovery Dome" outreach network which has grown from six sites to 30 sites in 15 states and 7 countries. If space allows, we will demonstrate the shows in a portable dome in the poster session.

Transforming the Culture of School Leadership: Humanizing Our Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giancola, Joseph M.; Hutchison, Janice

2005-01-01

How do successful schools create meaningful change? How can stakeholders improve and impact final decisions in the change process? Lasting organizational improvement and effective leadership blossom in climates of compassion, trust, and productive relationships. The authors describe the key to true organizational transformation in the one-on-one…

Assessing vulnerable and expanding vegetation stands and species in the San Francisco Bay Area for conservation management under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morueta-Holme, N.; Heller, N. E.; McLaughlin, B.; Weiss, S. B.; Ackerly, D.

2015-12-01

The distribution of suitable climatic areas for species and vegetation types is expected to shift due to ongoing climate change. While the pace at which current distributions will shift is hard to quantify, predictions of where climatically suitable areas will be in the future can allow us to map 1) areas currently occupied by a species or vegetation type unlikely to persist through the end of this century (vulnerable stands), 2) areas likely to do better in the future and serve as nuclei for population expansion (expanding stands), and 3) areas likely to act as climate refugia (persisting stands). We quantified the vulnerability of 27 individual plant species and 27 vegetation types in the San Francisco Bay Area as well as the conservation importance, vulnerability, and resilience of selected management sites for climate change resilient conservation. To this end, we developed California-wide models of species and vegetation distributions using climate data from the 2014 California Basin Characterization Model at a 270 m resolution, projected to 18 different end-of century climate change scenarios. Combining these distribution models with high resolution maps of current vegetation, we were able to map projected vulnerable, expanding, and persisting stands within the Bay Area. We show that vegetation and species are expected to shift considerably within the study region over the next decades; although we also identify refugia potentially able to offset some of the negative impacts of climate change. We discuss the implications for managers that wish to incorporate climate change in conservation decisions, in particular related to choosing species for restoration, identifying areas to collect seeds for restoration, and preparing for expected major vegetation changes. Our evaluation of individual management sites highlights the need for stronger coordination of efforts across sites to prioritize monitoring and protection of species whose ranges are contracting elsewhere. Finally, we present and discuss novel ways in visualizing and communicating condensed predictions and their uncertainty to land managers and challenges inherent. This work is part of the Terrestrial Biodiversity and Climate Change Collaborative, committed to developing a scientific basis for climate adaptation conservation strategies.

Impact of climate change on waterborne diseases.

PubMed

Funari, Enzo; Manganelli, Maura; Sinisi, Luciana

2012-01-01

Change in climate and water cycle will challenge water availability but it will also increase the exposure to unsafe water. Floods, droughts, heavy storms, changes in rain pattern, increase of temperature and sea level, they all show an increasing trend worldwide and will affect biological, physical and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. This paper is intended, through reviewing the available literature, to highlight environmental changes and critical situations caused by floods, drought and warmer temperature that will lead to an increase of exposure to water related pathogens, chemical hazards and cyanotoxins. The final aim is provide knowledge-based elements for more focused adaptation measures.

Tropical forests and the changing earth system.

PubMed

Lewis, Simon L

2006-01-29

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.

The Seasonal cycle of the Tropical Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in Chemistry-Climate Models in Comparison with Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Dessler, A. E.

2017-12-01

The seasonal cycle is one of the key features of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, so it is important that the climate models reproduce it. In this analysis, we evaluate how well the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) reproduce the seasonal cycle of tropical lower stratospheric water vapor. We do this by comparing the models to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERAi). We also evaluate if the chemistry-climate models (CCMs) reproduce the key transport and dehydration processes that regulate the seasonal cycle using a forward, domain filling, diabatic trajectory model. Finally, we explore the changes of the seasonal cycle during the 21st century in the two CCMs. Our results show general agreement in the seasonal cycles from the MLS, the ERAi, and the CCMs. Despite this agreement, there are some clear disagreements between the models and the observations on the details of transport and dehydration in the TTL. Finally, both the CCMs predict a moister seasonal cycle by the end of the 21st century. But they disagree on the changes of the seasonal amplitude, which is predicted to increase in the GEOSCCM and decrease in the WACCM.

Ocean Sciences Sequence for Grades 6-8: Climate Change Curriculum Developed Through a Collaboration Between Scientists and Educators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halversen, C.; Weiss, E. L.; Pedemonte, S.

2016-02-01

Today's youth have been tasked with the overwhelming job of addressing the world's climate future. The students who will become the scientists, policy makers, and citizens of tomorrow must gain a robust understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, as well as possible adaptation strategies. Currently, few high quality curriculum materials exist that address climate change in a developmentally appropriate manner. The NOAA-funded Ocean Sciences Sequence for Grades 6-8: The Ocean-Atmosphere Connection and Climate Change (OSS) addresses this gap by providing teachers with scientifically accurate climate change curriculum that hits on some of the most salient points in climate science, while simultaneously developing students' science process skills. OSS was developed through a collaboration between some of the nation's leading ocean and climate scientists and the Lawrence Hall of Science's highly qualified curriculum development team. Scientists were active partners throughout the entire development process, from initial brainstorming of key concepts and creating the conceptual storyline for the curriculum to final review of the content and activities. The goal was to focus strategically and effectively on core concepts within ocean and climate sciences that students should understand. OSS was designed in accordance with the latest research from the learning sciences and provides numerous opportunities for students to develop facility with science practices by "doing" science.Through hands-on activities, technology, informational readings, and embedded assessments, OSS deeply addresses a significant number of standards from the Next Generation Science Standards and is being used by many teachers as they explore the shifts required by NGSS. It also aligns with the Ocean Literacy and Climate Literacy Frameworks. OSS comprises 33 45-minute sessions organized into three thematic units, each driven by an exploratory question: (1) How do the ocean and atmosphere interact?; (2) How does carbon flow through the ocean, land, and atmosphere?; and (3) What are the causes and effects of climate change? The curriculum deliberately explores the ocean and climate as global systems and challenges students to use scientific evidence to make explanations about climate change.

Climate of migration? How climate triggered migration from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaser, Rüdiger; Himmelsbach, Iso; Bösmeier, Annette

2017-11-01

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the extent to which climate and climatic change can have a negative impact on societies by triggering migration, or even contribute to conflict. It summarizes results from the transdisciplinary project Climate of migration (funded 2010-2014), whose innovative title was created by Franz Mauelshagen and Uwe Lübken. The overall goal of this project was to analyze the relation between climatic and socioeconomic parameters and major migration waves from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century. The article assesses the extent to which climatic conditions triggered these migration waves. The century investigated was in general characterized by the Little Ice Age with three distinct cooling periods, causing major glacier advances in the alpine regions and numerous climatic extremes such as major floods, droughts and severe winter. Societal changes were tremendous, marked by the warfare during the Napoleonic era (until 1815), the abolition of serfdom (1817), the bourgeois revolution (1847/48), economic freedom (1862), the beginning of industrialization accompanied by large-scale rural-urban migration resulting in urban poverty, and finally by the foundation of the German Empire in 1871.

The presented study is based on quantitative data and a qualitative, information-based discourse analysis. It considers climatic conditions as well as socioeconomic and political issues, leading to the hypothesis of a chain of effects ranging from unfavorable climatic conditions to a decrease in crop yields to rising cereal prices and finally to emigration. These circumstances were investigated extensively for the peak emigration years identified with each migration wave. Furthermore, the long-term relations between emigration and the prevailing climatic conditions, crop yields and cereal prices were statistically evaluated with a sequence of linear models which were significant with explanatory power between 22 and 38 %.

Assessing the Robustness of Green Infrastructure under Stochastic Design Storms and Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chui, T. F. M.; Yang, Y.

2017-12-01

Green infrastructures (GI) have been widely used to mitigate flood risk, improve surface water quality, and to restore predevelopment hydrologic regimes. Commonly-used GI include, bioretention system, porous pavement and green roof, etc. They are normally sized to fulfil different design criteria (e.g. providing certain storage depths, limiting peak surface flow rates) that are formulated for current climate conditions. While GI commonly have long lifespan, the sensitivity of their performance to climate change is however unclear. This study first proposes a method to formulate suitable design criteria to meet different management interests (e.g. different levels of first flush reduction and peak flow reduction). Then typical designs of GI are proposed. In addition, a high resolution stochastic design storm generator using copulas and random cascade model is developed, which is calibrated using recorded rainfall time series. Then, few climate change scenarios are generated by varying the duration and depth of design storms, and changing the parameters of the calibrated storm generator. Finally, the performance of GI with typical designs under the random synthesized design storms are then assessed using numerical modeling. The robustness of the designs is obtained by the comparing their performance in the future scenarios to the current one. This study overall examines the robustness of the current GI design criteria under uncertain future climate conditions, demonstrating whether current GI design criteria should be modified to account for climate change.

Moving the Conversation on Climate Change and Inequality to the Local

PubMed Central

TELLER, AMY S.

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to shift seasonality in Tanzania, while smallholder farmers’ livelihoods and the economy rely upon the success of rainfed agriculture. However, we should not a priori assume doomsday climate vulnerability scenarios of drought and devastation in the rural global South nor, on the other hand, that farmers will optimally employ local knowledge for effective adaptation. Drawing from qualitative fieldwork in two Tanzanian communities, I question these grand narratives of devastation and local adaptive capacity and introduce an approach that brings inequality to the center. Poorer nations are most vulnerable to climate change, but they are not homogenous and neither are the smallholder farmers living within them. I present evidence on the crucial context-specific dimensions of socio-ecological vulnerability for these smallholder farmers—1) water resources and access to them; 2) agricultural knowledge, including farmers’ own knowledge and their interactions with sources like government-run agricultural extension and NGOs; and 3) existing drought-coping strategies—and the heterogeneity among farmers across these dimensions. Ultimately, this case demonstrates how climate change can reproduce existing inequalities within nations by drawing upon how farmers currently respond to drought as evidence. I present the difficult and somewhat bleak contexts within which the farmers are coping, but also illustrate the agency that farmers exhibit in response to these conditions and the adaptive capacity they possess. Finally, I call for more sub-national research on climate and inequality by sociologists and draw connections among within-nation inequality, climate change, and agricultural development initiatives. PMID:28989959

An aerobic scope-based habitat suitability index for predicting the effects of multi-dimensional climate change stressors on marine teleosts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Raye, Gen; Weng, Kevin C.

2015-03-01

Climate change will expose many marine ecosystems to temperature, oxygen and CO2 conditions that have not been experienced for millennia. Predicting the impact of these changes on marine fishes is difficult due to the complexity of these disparate stressors and the inherent non-linearity of physiological systems. Aerobic scope (the difference between maximum and minimum aerobic metabolic rates) is a coherent, unifying physiological framework that can be used to examine all of the major environmental changes expected to occur in the oceans during this century. Using this framework, we develop a physiology-based habitat suitability model to forecast the response of marine fishes to simultaneous ocean acidification, warming and deoxygenation, including interactions between all three stressors. We present an example of the model parameterized for Thunnus albacares (yellowfin tuna), an important fisheries species that is likely to be affected by climate change. We anticipate that if embedded into multispecies ecosystem models, our model could help to more precisely forecast climate change impacts on the distribution and abundance of other high value species. Finally, we show how our model may indicate the potential for, and limits of, adaptation to chronic stressors.

Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

PubMed

Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

2015-11-15

Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on river ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

DOE PAGES

Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Boysen, Lena R.; ...

2017-03-28

Half of the Earth s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affects a myriad of land surface processes and our adaptation behaviors. We here review the status and major knowledge gaps of studying the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present eleven grand challenge areas for scientific research and adaptation communities in the coming decade: (1) collective and separate impacts of major land changes and the interactions with non-land-change factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase, (2) carbon and other biogeochemicalmore » cycles, (3) climatically relevant biospheric emissions such as aerosols, (4) water cycle, (5) agriculture, (6) urbanization, (7) gradual acclimation of plants, communities, and ecosystems to climate and environmental changes, (8) plant migration, (9) land use projections, (10) reduction of uncertainties in models and data, and finally (11) adaptation strategies. We conclude that we need to create and maintain a close cross-disciplinary coordination between measurements and process representation in models to analyze complex multi-facet interrelated perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes. Along with major scientific research thrusts, land-use and land cover change mitigation and adaptation assessments should be strengthened to identify barriers that need to be overcome, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision making processes work in specific contexts.« less

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Boysen, Lena R.

Half of the Earth s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affects a myriad of land surface processes and our adaptation behaviors. We here review the status and major knowledge gaps of studying the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present eleven grand challenge areas for scientific research and adaptation communities in the coming decade: (1) collective and separate impacts of major land changes and the interactions with non-land-change factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase, (2) carbon and other biogeochemicalmore » cycles, (3) climatically relevant biospheric emissions such as aerosols, (4) water cycle, (5) agriculture, (6) urbanization, (7) gradual acclimation of plants, communities, and ecosystems to climate and environmental changes, (8) plant migration, (9) land use projections, (10) reduction of uncertainties in models and data, and finally (11) adaptation strategies. We conclude that we need to create and maintain a close cross-disciplinary coordination between measurements and process representation in models to analyze complex multi-facet interrelated perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes. Along with major scientific research thrusts, land-use and land cover change mitigation and adaptation assessments should be strengthened to identify barriers that need to be overcome, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision making processes work in specific contexts.« less

Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Breecker, Daniel O.

2015-11-01

Speleothems have become a cornerstone of the approach to better understanding Earth's climatic teleconnections due to their precise absolute chronologies, their continuous or semicontinuous deposition and their global terrestrial distribution. We review the last decade of speleothem-related research, building off a similar review by McDermott (2004), in three themes - i) investigation of global teleconnections using speleothem-based climate reconstructions, ii) refinement of climate interpretations from speleothem proxies through cave monitoring, and iii) novel, technical methods of speleothem-based climate reconstructions. Speleothem records have enabled critical insight into the response of global hydroclimate to large climate changes. This includes the relevant forcings and sequence of climatic responses involved in glacial terminations and recognition of a global monsoon response to climate changes on orbital and millennial time scales. We review advancements in understanding of the processes that control speleothem δ13C values and introduce the idea of a direct atmospheric pCO2 influence. We discuss progress in understanding kinetic isotope fractionation, which, with further advances, may help quantify paleoclimate changes despite non-equilibrium formation of speleothems. This feeds into the potential of proxy system modeling to consider climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical processes with the objective of quantitatively interpreting speleothem proxies. Finally, we provide an overview of emerging speleothem proxies and novel approaches using existing proxies. Most recently, technical advancements made in the measurement of fluid inclusions are now yielding reliable determinations of paleotemperatures.

Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

2010-12-01

Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and discuss the impact of climate change on future development of the region.

Climate program "stone soup": Assessing climate change vulnerabilities in the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Littell, J. S.; Poe, A.; van Pelt, T.

2015-12-01

Climate change is already affecting the Bering Sea and Aleutian Island region of Alaska. Past and present marine research across a broad spectrum of disciplines is shedding light on what sectors of the ecosystem and the human dimension will be most impacted. In a grassroots approach to extend existing research efforts, leveraging recently completed downscaled climate projections for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region, we convened a team of 30 researchers-- with expertise ranging from anthropology to zooplankton to marine mammals-- to assess climate projections in the context of their expertise. This Aleutian-Bering Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ABCVA) began with researchers working in five teams to evaluate the vulnerabilities of key species and ecosystem services relative to projected changes in climate. Each team identified initial vulnerabilities for their focal species or services, and made recommendations for further research and information needs that would help managers and communities better understand the implications of the changing climate in this region. Those draft recommendations were shared during two focused, public sessions held within two hub communities for the Bering and Aleutian region: Unalaska and St. Paul. Qualitative insights about local concerns and observations relative to climate change were collected during these sessions, to be compared to the recommendations being made by the ABCVA team of researchers. Finally, we used a Structured Decision Making process to prioritize the recommendations of participating scientists, and integrate the insights shared during our community sessions. This work brought together residents, stakeholders, scientists, and natural resource managers to collaboratively identify priorities for addressing current and expected future impacts of climate change. Recommendations from this project will be incorporated into future research efforts of the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ABSI LCC), the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS), and the Alaska Climate Science Center.

BREEDING AND GENETICS SYMPOSIUM: Climate change and selective breeding in aquaculture.

PubMed

Sae-Lim, P; Kause, A; Mulder, H A; Olesen, I

2017-04-01

Aquaculture is the fastest growing food production sector and it contributes significantly to global food security. Based on Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, aquaculture production must increase significantly to meet the future global demand for aquatic foods in 2050. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and FAO, climate change may result in global warming, sea level rise, changes of ocean productivity, freshwater shortage, and more frequent extreme climate events. Consequently, climate change may affect aquaculture to various extents depending on climatic zones, geographical areas, rearing systems, and species farmed. There are 2 major challenges for aquaculture caused by climate change. First, the current fish, adapted to the prevailing environmental conditions, may be suboptimal under future conditions. Fish species are often poikilothermic and, therefore, may be particularly vulnerable to temperature changes. This will make low sensitivity to temperature more important for fish than for livestock and other terrestrial species. Second, climate change may facilitate outbreaks of existing and new pathogens or parasites. To cope with the challenges above, 3 major adaptive strategies are identified. First, general 'robustness' will become a key trait in aquaculture, whereby fish will be less vulnerable to current and new diseases while at the same time thriving in a wider range of temperatures. Second, aquaculture activities, such as input power, transport, and feed production contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Selection for feed efficiency as well as defining a breeding goal that minimizes greenhouse gas emissions will reduce impacts of aquaculture on climate change. Finally, the limited adoption of breeding programs in aquaculture is a major concern. This implies inefficient use of resources for feed, water, and land. Consequently, the carbon footprint per kg fish produced is greater than when fish from breeding programs would be more heavily used. Aquaculture should use genetically improved and robust organisms not suffering from inbreeding depression. This will require using fish from well-managed selective breeding programs with proper inbreeding control and breeding goals. Policymakers and breeding organizations should provide incentives to boost selective breeding programs in aquaculture for more robust fish tolerating climatic change.

An effective online data monitoring and saving strategy for large-scale climate simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xian, Xiaochen; Archibald, Rick; Mayer, Benjamin

Large-scale climate simulation models have been developed and widely used to generate historical data and study future climate scenarios. These simulation models often have to run for a couple of months to understand the changes in the global climate over the course of decades. This long-duration simulation process creates a huge amount of data with both high temporal and spatial resolution information; however, how to effectively monitor and record the climate changes based on these large-scale simulation results that are continuously produced in real time still remains to be resolved. Due to the slow process of writing data to disk,more » the current practice is to save a snapshot of the simulation results at a constant, slow rate although the data generation process runs at a very high speed. This study proposes an effective online data monitoring and saving strategy over the temporal and spatial domains with the consideration of practical storage and memory capacity constraints. Finally, our proposed method is able to intelligently select and record the most informative extreme values in the raw data generated from real-time simulations in the context of better monitoring climate changes.« less

An effective online data monitoring and saving strategy for large-scale climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Xian, Xiaochen; Archibald, Rick; Mayer, Benjamin; ...

2018-01-22

Large-scale climate simulation models have been developed and widely used to generate historical data and study future climate scenarios. These simulation models often have to run for a couple of months to understand the changes in the global climate over the course of decades. This long-duration simulation process creates a huge amount of data with both high temporal and spatial resolution information; however, how to effectively monitor and record the climate changes based on these large-scale simulation results that are continuously produced in real time still remains to be resolved. Due to the slow process of writing data to disk,more » the current practice is to save a snapshot of the simulation results at a constant, slow rate although the data generation process runs at a very high speed. This study proposes an effective online data monitoring and saving strategy over the temporal and spatial domains with the consideration of practical storage and memory capacity constraints. Finally, our proposed method is able to intelligently select and record the most informative extreme values in the raw data generated from real-time simulations in the context of better monitoring climate changes.« less

Climate change and adaptational impacts in coastal systems: the case of sea defences.

PubMed

Firth, Louise B; Mieszkowska, Nova; Thompson, Richard C; Hawkins, Stephen J

2013-09-01

We briefly review how coastal ecosystems are responding to and being impacted by climate change, one of the greatest challenges facing society today. In adapting to rising and stormier seas associated with climate change, coastal defence structures are proliferating and becoming dominant coastal features, particularly in urbanised areas. Whilst the primary function of these structures is to protect coastal property and infrastructure, they inevitably have a significant secondary impact on the local environment and ecosystems. In this review we outline some of the negative and positive effects of these structures on physical processes, impacts on marine species, and the novel engineering approaches that have been employed to improve the ecological value of these structures in recent years. Finally we outline guidelines for an environmentally sensitive approach to design of such structures in the marine environment.

Integrated Framework for an Urban Climate Adaptation Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omitaomu, O.; Parish, E. S.; Nugent, P.; Mei, R.; Sylvester, L.; Ernst, K.; Absar, M.

2015-12-01

Cities have an opportunity to become more resilient to future climate change through investments made in urban infrastructure today. However, most cities lack access to credible high-resolution climate change projection information needed to assess and address potential vulnerabilities from future climate variability. Therefore, we present an integrated framework for developing an urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT). Urban-CAT consists of four modules. Firstly, it provides climate projections at different spatial resolutions for quantifying urban landscape. Secondly, this projected data is combined with socio-economic data using leading and lagging indicators for assessing landscape vulnerability to climate extremes (e.g., urban flooding). Thirdly, a neighborhood scale modeling approach is presented for identifying candidate areas for adaptation strategies (e.g., green infrastructure as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding). Finally, all these capabilities are made available as a web-based tool to support decision-making and communication at the neighborhood and city levels. In this paper, we present some of the methods that drive each of the modules and demo some of the capabilities available to-date using the City of Knoxville in Tennessee as a case study.

Disentangling the driving mechanism of streamflow trends using runoff senstivity to land use and climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silverman, N. L.; Moore, J. N.; Maneta, M. P.

2014-12-01

The majority of watersheds within the United States have been disturbed by anthropogenic land use change. On top of this, there is strong evidence of (historic and projected) climatic changes that affect earth's hydrologic cycle. Streamflow measurements integrate the effects of land use and climate change on watershed hydrology. Therefore, when temporal trends are present, teasing out the cause is challenging due to the overlying climate and land use signals. In this study, we develop an analytical framework for distinguishing trends in streamflow that are driven by climate change from those that are driven by land use change. This framework is based on the theory that during wetter years runoff is affected more by changes in climate than during drier years. Whereas, the inverse is true for land use change. During wetter years runoff is affected less by land use change than during drier years. This difference can be seen in the quantile regression of the 75th and 25th percentile annual stream flows which represent wetter and drier years, respectively. This creates a defining characteristic in how these two forcing mechanisms manifest within the streamflow record. We empirically test this framework and show that the sensitivity of runoff to climate and land use change is uniquely dependent on the spatiotemporal water and energy limitations of a catchment. Finally we apply the framework using 1,566 watersheds across the contiguous United States. We use gages from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) network. The gages are selected because they have continuous and complete data from the years 1950 to 2009 and represent watersheds which are characterized by a range of disturbances. Our results show that the driving mechanisms of streamflow change across the U.S. are regionally coherent and correspond with land management activities and climate zones. This methodology provides a simple means of classifying watershed to regional scale hydroclimatic change without relying on reference stream gages, complex models, or observational climate networks.

Western water and climate change.

PubMed

Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

2015-12-01

The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

A HYPOTHESIS-DRIVEN FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Understanding how climate change will alter the availability of coastal final ecosystem goods and services (FEGS; such as food provisioning from fisheries, property protection, and recreation) has significant implications for coastal planning and the development of adaptive management strategies to maximize sustainability of natural resources. The dynamic social and physical settings of these important resources means that there is not a “one-size-fits-all” model to predict the specific changes in coastal FEGS that will occur as a result of climate change. Instead, we propose a hypothesis-driven approach that builds on available literature to understand the likely effects of climate change on FEGS across coastal regions of the United States. We present an analysis for three FEGS: food provisioning from fisheries, recreation, and property protection. Hypotheses were restricted to changes precipitated by four prominent climate stressors projected in coastal areas: 1) sea-level rise, 2) ocean acidification, 3) increased temperatures, and 4) intensification of coastal storms. Our approach identified links between these stressors and the ecological processes that produce the FEGS, with the capacity to incorporate regional differences in FEGS availability. Linkages were first presented in a logic model to conceptualize the framework. For each region, we developed hypotheses regarding the effects of climate stressors on FEGS by examining case studies For example, w

Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey

PubMed Central

Colagiuri, Ruth; Boylan, Sinead; Morrice, Emily

2015-01-01

Climate change and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are arguably the greatest global challenges of the 21st Century. However, the confluence between them remains under-examined and there is little evidence of a comprehensive, systematic approach to identifying research priorities to mitigate their joint impact. Consequently, we: (i) convened a workshop of academics (n = 25) from the Worldwide Universities Network to identify priority areas at the interface between NCDs and climate change; (ii) conducted a Delphi survey of international opinion leaders in public health and relevant other disciplines; and (iii) convened an expert panel to review and advise on final priorities. Three research areas (water security; transport; conceptualising NCD harms to support policy formation) were listed among the top 10 priorities by >90% of Delphi respondents, and ranked among the top 12 priorities by >60% of respondents who ranked the order of priority. A fourth area (reducing the carbon footprint of cities) was ranked highest by the same >60% of respondents. Our results are consistent with existing frameworks on health and climate change, and extends them by focusing specifically on NCDs. Researching these priorities could progress understanding of climate change and NCDs, and inform global and national policy decisions for mitigating associated harms. PMID:26501301

The contributions of climate and land cover impacts on streamflow in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shaochun; Eisner, Stephanie; Astrup, Rasmus; Beldring, Stein

2017-04-01

Located in high latitudes, Norway experienced significant changes in climate in the last 115 years. The average temperature rises at an average rate of 0.09 °C/decade while the annual precipitation increased by ca. 16% from 1900 to 2014 with statistical significance. In the meantime, the standing forest timber volume has increased continuously and almost tripled by the year 2012. Both the changes in climate and land cover would directly affect the streamflow and the hydropower production in Norway, which accounts for about 98% of the total electricity production of the whole country. However, there is a lack of understanding of the contribution of these different drivers to changes in streamflow in Norway, although such knowledge provides important information for future changes in water availability. This paper aims to quantify the relative contribution of climate and land cover impacts on the mean annual and seasonal streamflow (including total, quick and base flow) using the hydrological model HBV for 56 natural catchments in Norway. The changes in forest extend and structure are considered as the major land cover changes in these catchments. The discharge data are split into two periods (1961 - 1988 and 1989 - 2015) as the reference and changing periods. The HBV model was firstly calibrated in the reference period for all catchment separately and the simulated discharge in the changing period was used to calculate the relative contributions. The results show that the climate change played a bigger role than land cover change on annual total, quick and base flows in 62%, 48% and 82% studied basins, respectively. The climate change is the dominant driver on streamflows in winter and spring in most basins, while the land use change affected more significantly on summer flows as well as the base flow in autumn. Finally, the resulted contribution will be compared with the changes in climate and forest characteristics as external validation.

Climate change impact on the establishment and seasonal abundance of Invasive Mosquito Species: current state and future risk maps over southeast Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagaris, Efthimios; -Eleni Sotiropoulou, Rafaella; Sotiropoulos, Andreas; Spanos, Ioannis; Milonas, Panayiotis; Michaelakis, Antonios

2017-04-01

Establishment and seasonal abundance of a region for Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS) are related to climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation. In this work the current state is assessed using data from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project over Greece and Italy for the development of current spatial risk databases of IMS. Results are validated from the installation of a prototype IMS monitoring device that has been designed and developed in the framework of the LIFE CONOPS project at key points across the two countries. Since climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the future potentiality of IMS establishment and spread over Greece and Italy is assessed using the climatic parameters in 2050's provided by the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. The need for regional climate projections in a finer grid size is assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale GCM simulations. The estimated changes in the future meteorological parameters are combined with the observation data in order to estimate the future levels of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product includes spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Acknowledgement: LIFE CONOPS project "Development & demonstration of management plans against - the climate change enhanced - invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe" (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP

DOE PAGES

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; ...

2016-11-16

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. PMID:28257501

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Kim, Young-Min; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; ...

2014-11-16

We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O 3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O 3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5)more » and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O 3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O 3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O 3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O 3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.« less

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Young-Min; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang

We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O 3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O 3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5)more » and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O 3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O 3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O 3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O 3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.« less

Country Contributions to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuenemann, K. C.

2016-12-01

An assignment called "Country Contributions to Climate Change" is used in an introductory Global Climate Change course and answers the question, "Who is responsible for climate change?" This assignment is used about a third of the way into the course, which fulfills a science requirement, but also a Global Diversity requirement within the university. The assignment involves taking a trip to the computer lab to learn how to create graphs in Excel. Two graphs are created, the Keeling Curve, and a graph on total carbon emissions by country since 1900. Students are given data for a few key countries, then are sent to the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) website to find data on their assigned country. Students create a graph to compare emissions over time from each of these countries. Using this data and the data from the CDIAC, students are asked to draw conclusions about which country is the largest emitter, then on a per capita basis, which people are the largest emitters. Later in the semester they will calculate their own carbon footprint and compare to these numbers. Finally, students are asked to add up emissions by country since 1900 to find out how the countries compare in cumulative emissions, and we learn why this number is relevant. Students also learn the difference between carbon emissions and concentrations, tying together some lessons on the carbon cycle. Students discover the complex role of several countries in climate change, showing them how complicated a climate change solution policy can be.

Land Use, Climate, and Water Resources-Global Stages of Interaction.

PubMed

Kaushal, Sujay S; Gold, Arthur J; Mayer, Paul M

2017-10-24

Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, and highlight those in this special issue. We identify stages that characterize increasing interaction between land use and climate change. During the first stage, hydrologic modifications and the built environment amplify overland flow via processes associated with runoff-dominated ecosystems (e.g., soil compaction, impervious surface cover, drainage, and channelization). During the second stage, changes in water storage impact the capacity of ecosystems to buffer extremes in water quantity and quality (e.g., either losses in snowpack, wetlands, and groundwater recharge or gains in water and nutrient storage behind dams in reservoirs). During the third stage, extremes in water quantity and quality contribute to losses in ecosystem services and water security (e.g., clean drinking water, flood mitigation, and habitat availability). During the final stage, management and restoration strategies attempt to regain lost ecosystem structure, function, and services but need to adapt to climate change. By anticipating the increasing interaction between land use and climate change, intervention points can be identified, and management strategies can be adjusted to improve outcomes for realistic expectations. Overall, global water security cannot be adequately restored without considering an increasing interaction between land use and climate change across progressive stages and our ever-increasing human domination of the water cycle from degradation to ecosystem restoration.

Lightning Applications in Weather and Climate Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Colin G.

2013-11-01

Thunderstorms, and lightning in particular, are a major natural hazard to the public, aviation, power companies, and wildfire managers. Lightning causes great damage and death every year but also tells us about the inner working of storms. Since lightning can be monitored from great distances from the storms themselves, lightning may allow us to provide early warnings for severe weather phenomena such as hail storms, flash floods, tornadoes, and even hurricanes. Lightning itself may impact the climate of the Earth by producing nitrogen oxides (NOx), a precursor of tropospheric ozone, which is a powerful greenhouse gas. Thunderstorms themselves influence the climate system by the redistribution of heat, moisture, and momentum in the atmosphere. What about future changes in lightning and thunderstorm activity? Many studies show that higher surface temperatures produce more lightning, but future changes will depend on what happens to the vertical temperature profile in the troposphere, as well as changes in water balance, and even aerosol loading of the atmosphere. Finally, lightning itself may provide a useful tool for tracking climate change in the future, due to the nonlinear link between lightning, temperature, upper tropospheric water vapor, and cloud cover.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

PubMed

Mimura, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinter, Nicholas; Fiedel, Stuart; Keeley, Jon E.

2011-02-01

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.

Tropospheric processes: Observations and interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Fuglestvedt, J. A.; Lee, Yuan-Pern; Johnson, Colin; Atkinson, Roger; Lelieveld, Joseph; Sidebottom, Howard; Thompson, Anne; Brune, William H.; Oppenheimer, Michael

1991-01-01

Three aspects of tropospheric chemical processes imposed by manmade emission of source gases will be discussed. First, the implications for the OH distribution and thereby for the lifetime of source gases which are controlled by reactions with OH in the troposphere (e.g., CH4 and HCFC) are investigated. This is of importance for stratosphere ozone and climate. Second, we will study the impact of source gas emission on tropospheric ozone and discuss the possibility to estimate indirect climate effects from the changes in ozone and other climate gases. Finally, the degradation of HFC and HCFC's is discussed.

Getting Decision Makers to the Table: Digestible Facts, a Few Good Friends and Sharing Recipes for Solutions to Climate Change Impacts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudrias, M. A.; Estrada, M.; Gershunov, A.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Young, E.

2014-12-01

Decision makers and community leaders are key audiences to engage in our efforts to improve climate literacy. Climate Education Partners has been working with business leaders, elected officials, tribal leaders, and other Key Influentials in the San Diego Region to enhance the channels of communication outside traditional settings. Over the past year we have interviewed over 90 Key Influential San Diego leaders asking them about their knowledge of climate change and their personal and professional efforts to adapt to and/or mitigate the impacts of climate change. We also engaged them directly in the creation of an innovative educational resource called "San Diego, 2050 is Calling. How will we answer?" Results of the interviews indicate that 90% of these leaders are concerned about climate change, more than 50% are already doing something about the impacts, and the majority of them want more information, greater dialogue and examples of actions taken by other community leaders. We found that repeated engagement of leaders at the San Diego County Water Authority went from basic collaboration in our water tours, to greater participation of their top leaders in a water tour for top decision makers from the City of San Diego, finally culminating with full support of and participation in the 2050 report. The 2050 report represents an integrated approach blending local climate change science, social science education theory and presentation of a suite of solution-driven opportunities for local leaders. The report includes science infographics that illustrate rigorous scientific facts, statements from expert scientists and direct quotes from decision makers, and examples of successful climate change adaptation actions from companies, government groups and others. The video and photography sessions for the 2050 report led to many unexpected discussion among leaders with differing opinions on climate change, greater enthusiasm to participate in outreach activities with other leaders and an increased willingness to share their successes publicly. Climate Education Partners is finding that linking excellent local science with healthy community dialogue is resulting in San Diego leaders and their communities making more informed decisions on how to adapt to climate change now and for all future generations.

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

PubMed

Pilliod, David S; Arkle, Robert S; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie A; Funk, W Chris

2015-09-01

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

Coupling Processes Between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm; Weisenstein, Debra; Rodriquez, Jose; Danilin, Michael; Scott, Courtney; Shia, Run-Lie; Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Sze, Nien-Dak; Stewart, Richard W. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

This is the final report for NAS5-97039 for work performed between December 1996 and November 1999. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes among atmospheric chemistry, aerosol and climate, all important for quantitative assessments of global change. Among our priority are changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The work emphasizes two important aspects: (1) AER's continued participation in preparation of, and providing scientific input for, various scientific reports connected with assessment of stratospheric ozone and climate. These include participation in various model intercomparison exercises as well as preparation of national and international reports. (2) Continued development of the AER three-wave interactive model to address how the transport circulation will change as ozone and the thermal properties of the atmosphere change, and assess how these new findings will affect our confidence in the ozone assessment results.

Physiological and Agronomic Performance of the Coffee Crop in the Context of Climate Change and Global Warming: A Review.

PubMed

DaMatta, Fábio M; Avila, Rodrigo T; Cardoso, Amanda A; Martins, Samuel C V; Ramalho, José C

2018-05-30

Coffee is one of the most important global crops and provides a livelihood to millions of people living in developing countries. Coffee species have been described as being highly sensitive to climate change, as largely deduced from modeling studies based on predictions of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. Here, we discuss the physiological responses of the coffee tree in the context of present and ongoing climate changes, including drought, heat, and light stresses, and interactions between these factors. We also summarize recent insights on the physiological and agronomic performance of coffee at elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and highlight the key role of CO 2 in mitigating the harmful effects of heat stress. Evidence is shown suggesting that warming, per se, may be less harmful to coffee suitability than previously estimated, at least under the conditions of an adequate water supply. Finally, we discuss several mitigation strategies to improve crop performance in a changing world.

Calculating net primary productivity of forest ecosystem with G4M model: case study on South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, S.; Forsell, N.; Kindermann, G.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is considered as an important indicator for forest ecosystem since the role of forest is highlighted as a stepping stone for mitigating climate change. Especially rapidly urbanizing countries which have high carbon dioxide emission have large interest in calculating forest NPP under climate change. Also maximizing carbon sequestration in forest sector has became a global goal to minimize the impacts of climate change. Therefore, the objective of this research is estimating carbon stock change under the different climate change scenarios by using G4M (Global Forestry Model) model in South Korea. We analyzed four climate change scenarios in different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). In this study we used higher resolution data (1kmx1km) to produce precise estimation on NPP from regionalized four climate change scenarios in G4M model. Finally, we set up other environmental variables for G4M such as water holding capacity, soil type and elevation. As a result of this study, temperature showed significant trend during 2011 to 2100. Average annual temperature increased more than 5℃ in RCP 8.5 scenario while 1℃ increased in RCP 2.6 scenario. Each standard deviation of the annual average temperature showed similar trend. Average annual precipitation showed similarity within four scenarios. However the standard deviation of average annual precipitation is higher in RCP8.5 scenario which indicates the ranges of precipitation is wider in RCP8.5 scenario. These results present that climate indicators such as temperature and precipitation have uncertainties in climate change scenarios. NPP has changed from 5-13tC/ha/year in RCP2.6 scenario to 9-21 tC/ha/year in RCP8.5 scenario in 2100. In addition the spatial distribution of NPP presented different trend among the scenarios. In conclusion we calculated differences in temperature and precipitation and NPP change in different climate change scenarios. This study can be applied for maximizing carbon seqestration of vegetation.

People as sensors: mass media and local temperature influence climate change discussion on Twitter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirilenko, A.; Molodtsova, T.; Stepchenkova, S.

2014-12-01

We examined whether people living under significant temperature anomalies connect their sensory experiences to climate change and the role that media plays in this process. We used Twitter messages containing words "climate change" and "global warming" as the indicator of attention that public pays to the issue. Specifically, the goals were: (1) to investigate whether people immediately notice significant local weather anomalies and connect them to climate change and (2) to examine the role of mass media in this process. Over 2 million tweets were collected for a two-year period (2012 - 2013) and were assigned to 157 urban areas in the continental USA (Figure 1). Geographical locations of the tweets were identified with a geolocation resolving algorithm based the profile of the users. Daily number of tweets (tweeting rate) was computed for 157 conterminous USA urban areas and adjusted for data acquisition errors. The USHCN daily minimum and maximum temperatures were obtained for the station locations closest to the centers of the urban areas and the 1981-2010 30-year temperature mean and standard deviation were used as the climate normals. For the analysis, we computed the following indices for each day of 2012 - 2013 period: standardized temperature anomaly, absolute standardized temperature anomaly, and extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies for each urban zone. The extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies were then transformed into country-level values that represent the number of people living in extreme temperature conditions. The rate of tweeting on climate change was regressed on the time variables, number of climate change publications in the mass media, and temperature. In the majority of regression models, the mass media and temperature variables were significant at the p<0.001 level. Additionally, we did not find convincing evidence that the media acts as a mediator in the relationship between local weather and climate change discourse intensity. Our analysis of Twitter data confirmed that the public is able to recognize extreme temperature anomalies and connects these anomalies to climate change. Finally, we demonstrated the utility of social network data for research on public climate change perception.

Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

2010-01-01

Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

Markov chain decomposition of monthly rainfall into daily rainfall: Evaluation of climate change impact

DOE PAGES

Yoo, Chulsang; Lee, Jinwook; Ro, Yonghun

2016-01-01

This paper evaluates the effect of climate change on daily rainfall, especially on the mean number of wet days and the mean rainfall intensity. Assuming that the mechanism of daily rainfall occurrences follows the first-order Markov chain model, the possible changes in the transition probabilities are estimated by considering the climate change scenarios. Also, the change of the stationary probabilities of wet and dry day occurrences and finally the change in the number of wet days are derived for the comparison of current (1x CO 2) and 2x CO 2conditions. As a result of this study, the increase or decreasemore » in the mean number of wet days was found to be not enough to explain all of the change in monthly rainfall amounts, so rainfall intensity should also be modified. The application to the Seoul weather station in Korea shows that about 30% of the total change in monthly rainfall amount can be explained by the change in the number of wet days and the remaining 70% by the change in the rainfall intensity. That is, as an effect of climate change, the increase in the rainfall intensity could be more significant than the increase in the wet days and, thus, the risk of flood will be much highly increased.« less

Strategies for reforestation under uncertain future climates: guidelines for Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Gray, Laura K; Hamann, Andreas

2011-01-01

Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions.

IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, C. B.; Stocker, T. F.; Barros, V. R.; Qin, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Midgley, P. M.

2011-12-01

The Summary for Policy Makers of the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation will be approved by the world governments in November 2011. The focus of the Special Report is on climate change and its role in altering the frequency, severity, and impact of extreme events or disasters, and on the costs of both impacts and the actions taken to prepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme events and disasters. The emphasis is on understanding the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, on recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and on managing the risks of disasters over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The assessment considers a broad suite of adaptations and explores the limits to adaptation. The assessment was designed to build durable links and foundations for partnerships between the stakeholder communities focused on climate change and those focused on disaster risk reduction. The Special Report begins with material that frames the issues, followed by an assessment of the reasons that communities are vulnerable. Two chapters assess the role of past and future climate change in altering extremes and the impact of these on the physical environment and human systems. Three chapters assess available knowledge on impacts and adaptation, with separate chapters considering the literature, stakeholder relationships, and potential policy tools relevant to the local, national, and international scales. Longer-term components of adaptation to weather and climate extremes and disasters are assessed in the context of moving toward sustainability. The final chapter provides case studies that integrate themes across several chapters or are so unique that they need to be considered separately.

How Will Sea Ice Loss Affect the Greenland Ice Sheet? On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Roberts, William H. G.

2016-01-01

The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates the quantitative interpretation of ice core signals but also makes the stable ice isotope signal a more robust regional indicator of climate, speakers noted. Meeting participants agreed that to further our understanding of these relationships, we need more process-focused field and laboratory campaigns.

Modeling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Mediterranean During the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A.

2017-12-01

Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Changes in Migration Pattern of Transhumance due to Climate Change: An Empirical Analysis of Gaddi Community of Himachal Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Himanshu; Wasini Pandey, Bindhy

2017-04-01

Transhumance is a complex and traditional livelihood system seeking to maintain equilibrium between pastures, livestock and local people in variable and inhospitable environments. In Western Himalayas in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, pastoral groups of Gaddis inhabit almost inaccessible areas, where scarce resources and extreme climatic conditions limit options for alternative land use and livelihood systems. In such a harsh and unforgiving environment, mobility in the form of transhumance has been the traditional ecological response to climatic extremes. However, recently, such additional factors as global as well as regional climate change have brought about changes in the tree line, snow line and pastoral grounds along the historical route of seasonal migration of the Gaddis. The growing unpredictability of the once static route of migration has raised the possibility of Gaddis shifting to alternative land use and land management techniques. In the present research, we explore how transhumant pastoralism has been sustained and stimulated in the context of socioeconomic and climate change in the mountainous region of Himachal Pradesh and the future challenges that it faces. Based on case study research conducted in Chamba district in Himachal Pradesh; we have analysed the status, opportunities, and constraints of transhumant pastoralism in the changing context and modeled the possible alternative land use decisions. Finally we conclude that unless there are affirmative and progressive policy and institutional framework to support transhumant system, the indigenous practice will soon disappear from this part of the world. Keywords: Climate change, Gaddis, Himachal Pradesh, Transhumance, Alternative Land Use

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.

PubMed

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

On-line Education Initiatives to Galvanize Climate Mitigation in the Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.

2014-12-01

The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) is supporting two different on-line education initiatives that teach about climate change while emphasizing informed and effective responses. The first is an on-line introductory level course for undergraduate students (http://c3.ssec.wisc.edu/) offered through the University of Wisconsin-Madison Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (AOS) department. Along with a lighter carbon footprint and the convenience of web-based access, students interact via Drupal forums, Google hangouts and twitter. Activities include several pedagogical tools with sustainability-related content and a final project requiring a discussion of regionally relevant mitigation responses to achieve low emission scenarios for assigned locations. The other initiative is a MOOC (massive open online course) focusing on the changing weather and climate in the Great Lakes Region. This 4-week course is set to launch February 23 2015. One of the primary goals of this MOOC will be having participants change four habits, one per week. Each behavior change will provide a personal benefit to participating individuals while also helping to mitigate the collective impacts of climate change. This presentation will share strategies and insights from both projects.

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sultan, B.; Guan, K.; Kouressy, M.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.; Lobell, D. B.

2014-10-01

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031-2060 compared to a baseline of 1961-1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16-20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate impacts on sorghum yields by about 10%, with drier regions experiencing the largest benefits, though the net impacts of climate change remain negative even after accounting for CO2.

Potential effects of climate change on inland glacial lakes and implications for lake-dependent biota in Wisconsin: final report April 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Walker, John F.; Kenow, Kevin P.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Garrison, Paul J.; Hanson, Paul C.; Hunt, Randall J.

2013-01-01

F statewide, and an increase in precipitation of 1”–2”. However, summer precipitation in the northern part of the state is expected to be less and winter precipitation will be greater. By the end of the 21st century, the magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to intensify. Such climatic changes have altered, and would further alter hydrological, chemical, and physical properties of inland lakes. Lake-dependent wildlife sensitive to changes in water quality, are particularly susceptible to lake quality-associated habitat changes and are likely to suffer restrictions to current breeding distributions under some climate change scenarios. We have selected the common loon (Gavia immer) to serve as a sentinel lake-dependent piscivorous species to be used in the development of a template for linking primary lake-dependent biota endpoints (e.g., decline in productivity and/or breeding range contraction) to important lake quality indicators. In the current project, we evaluate how changes in freshwater habitat quality (specifically lake clarity) may impact common loon lake occupancy in Wisconsin under detailed climate-change scenarios. In addition, we employ simple land-use/land cover and habitat scenarios to illustrate the potential interaction of climate and land-use/land cover effects. The methods employed here provide a template for studies where integration of physical and biotic models is used to project future conditions under various climate and land use change scenarios. Findings presented here project the future conditions of lakes and loons within an important watershed in northern Wisconsin – of importance to water resource managers and state citizens alike.

Integrating climate change into the transportation planning process : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-07-01

The objective of this study is to advance the practice and application of transportation planning among state, regional, and local transportation planning agencies to successfully meet growing concerns about the relationship between transportation an...

Evaluation of biotechnologies for flexible pavement applications : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

With solid data from environmental scientists supporting climate change there has been a strong push in the industry to look for alternative green or environmentally friendly methods to keep building and maintaining our infrastructure. This col...

Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans.

PubMed

Papadaki, Christina; Soulis, Konstantinos; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Martinez-Capel, Francisco; Zogaris, Stamatis; Ntoanidis, Lazaros; Dimitriou, Elias

2016-01-01

The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate change impacts on the south-western Balkan river ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adapting regional watershed management to climate change in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf; Muerth, Markus; Schmid, Josef; Jobst, Andreas; Caya, Daniel; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Chaumont, Diane; Velazquez, Juan-Alberto; Turcotte, Richard; Ricard, Simon

2013-04-01

The international research project QBic3 (Quebec-Bavarian Collaboration on Climate Change) aims at investigating the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of regional scale catchments in Southern Quebec (Canada) and Bavaria (Germany). For this purpose, a hydro-meteorological modeling chain has been established, applying climatic forcing from both dynamical and statistical climate model data to an ensemble of hydrological models of varying complexity. The selection of input data, process descriptions and scenarios allows for the inter-comparison of the uncertainty ranges on selected runoff indicators; a methodology to display the relative importance of each source of uncertainty is developed and results for past runoff (1971-2000) and potential future changes (2041-2070) are obtained. Finally, the impact of hydrological changes on the operational management of dams, reservoirs and transfer systems is investigated and shown for the Bavarian case studies, namely the potential change in i) hydro-power production for the Upper Isar watershed and ii) low flow augmentation and water transfer rates at the Donau-Main transfer system in Central Franconia. Two overall findings will be presented and discussed in detail: a) the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows, is strongly affected by the choice of the hydrological model. It can be shown that an assessment of the changes in the hydrological cycle is best represented by a complex physically based hydrological model, computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) can give a significant level of trust for selected indicators. b) the major differences in the projected climate forcing stemming from the ensemble of dynamic climate models (GCM/RCM) versus the statistical-stochastical WETTREG2010 approach. While the dynamic ensemble reveals a moderate modification of the hydrological processes in the investigated catchments, the WETTREG2010 driven runs show a severe detraction for all water operations, mainly related to a strong decline in projected precipitation in all seasons (except winter).

Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2016-12-01

Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

Elevation-dependent temperature trends in the Rocky Mountain Front Range: changes over a 56- and 20-year record.

PubMed

McGuire, Chris R; Nufio, César R; Bowers, M Deane; Guralnick, Robert P

2012-01-01

Determining the magnitude of climate change patterns across elevational gradients is essential for an improved understanding of broader climate change patterns and for predicting hydrologic and ecosystem changes. We present temperature trends from five long-term weather stations along a 2077-meter elevational transect in the Rocky Mountain Front Range of Colorado, USA. These trends were measured over two time periods: a full 56-year record (1953-2008) and a shorter 20-year (1989-2008) record representing a period of widely reported accelerating change. The rate of change of biological indicators, season length and accumulated growing-degree days, were also measured over the 56 and 20-year records. Finally, we compared how well interpolated Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) datasets match the quality controlled and weather data from each station. Our results show that warming signals were strongest at mid-elevations over both temporal scales. Over the 56-year record, most sites show warming occurring largely through increases in maximum temperatures, while the 20-year record documents warming associated with increases in maximum temperatures at lower elevations and increases in minimum temperatures at higher elevations. Recent decades have also shown a shift from warming during springtime to warming in July and November. Warming along the gradient has contributed to increases in growing-degree days, although to differing degrees, over both temporal scales. However, the length of the growing season has remained unchanged. Finally, the actual and the PRISM interpolated yearly rates rarely showed strong correlations and suggest different warming and cooling trends at most sites. Interpretation of climate trends and their seasonal biases in the Rocky Mountain Front Range are dependent on both elevation and the temporal scale of analysis. Given mismatches between interpolated data and the directly measured station data, we caution against an over-reliance on interpolation methods for documenting local patterns of climatic change.

Elevation-Dependent Temperature Trends in the Rocky Mountain Front Range: Changes over a 56- and 20-Year Record

PubMed Central

McGuire, Chris R.; Nufio, César R.; Bowers, M. Deane; Guralnick, Robert P.

2012-01-01

Determining the magnitude of climate change patterns across elevational gradients is essential for an improved understanding of broader climate change patterns and for predicting hydrologic and ecosystem changes. We present temperature trends from five long-term weather stations along a 2077-meter elevational transect in the Rocky Mountain Front Range of Colorado, USA. These trends were measured over two time periods: a full 56-year record (1953–2008) and a shorter 20-year (1989–2008) record representing a period of widely reported accelerating change. The rate of change of biological indicators, season length and accumulated growing-degree days, were also measured over the 56 and 20-year records. Finally, we compared how well interpolated Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) datasets match the quality controlled and weather data from each station. Our results show that warming signals were strongest at mid-elevations over both temporal scales. Over the 56-year record, most sites show warming occurring largely through increases in maximum temperatures, while the 20-year record documents warming associated with increases in maximum temperatures at lower elevations and increases in minimum temperatures at higher elevations. Recent decades have also shown a shift from warming during springtime to warming in July and November. Warming along the gradient has contributed to increases in growing-degree days, although to differing degrees, over both temporal scales. However, the length of the growing season has remained unchanged. Finally, the actual and the PRISM interpolated yearly rates rarely showed strong correlations and suggest different warming and cooling trends at most sites. Interpretation of climate trends and their seasonal biases in the Rocky Mountain Front Range are dependent on both elevation and the temporal scale of analysis. Given mismatches between interpolated data and the directly measured station data, we caution against an over-reliance on interpolation methods for documenting local patterns of climatic change. PMID:22970205

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China

PubMed Central

Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981–2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981–2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change. PMID:29099842

Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Junfang; Pu, Feiyu; Li, Yunpeng; Xu, Jingwen; Li, Ning; Zhang, Yi; Guo, Jianping; Pan, Zhihua

2017-01-01

Understanding the regional relationships between climate change and crop production will benefit strategic decisions for future agricultural adaptation in China. In this study, the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield over the past three decades in Inner Mongolia, China, were explored based on the daily climate variables from 1981-2014 and detailed observed data of spring wheat from 1981-2014. Inner Mongolia was divided into three different climate type regions, the eastern, central and western regions. The data were gathered from 10 representative agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Inner Mongolia and analysed with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. First, the performance of the APSIM model in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was tested. Then, the key climatic factors limiting the phenophases and yield of spring wheat were identified. Finally, the responses of spring wheat phenophases and yield to climate change were further explored regionally. Our results revealed a general yield reduction of spring wheat in response to the pronounced climate warming from 1981 to 2014, with an average of 3564 kg·ha-1. The regional differences in yields were significant. The maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region. However, the minimum potential yield was found in the middle region. The air temperature and soil surface temperature were the optimum climatic factors that affected the key phenophases of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. The influence of the average maximum temperature on the key phenophases of spring wheat was greater than the average minimum temperature, followed by the relative humidity and solar radiation. The most insensitive climatic factors were precipitation, wind speed and reference crop evapotranspiration. As for the yield of spring wheat, temperature, solar radiation and air relative humidity were major meteorological factors that affected in the eastern and western Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, the effect of the average minimum temperature on yield was greater than that of the average maximum temperature. The increase of temperature in the western and middle regions would reduce the spring wheat yield, while in the eastern region due to the rising temperature, the spring wheat yield increased. The increase of solar radiation in the eastern and central regions would increase the yield of spring wheat. The increased air relative humidity would make the western spring wheat yield increased and the eastern spring wheat yield decreased. Finally, the models describing combined effects of these dominant climatic factors on the maturity and yield in different regions of Inner Mongolia were used to establish geographical differences. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and for local agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.

ClimatePad: Enabling public exploration of climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, J. E.; Chapman, W. L.

2012-12-01

Informal learners interested in climate issues can find a wealth of information in the print and online media related to climate and climate change. Throughout these resources, the equal use of generic terms like 'global warming' and 'climate change' suggest a level of nuance in the science that is not easy to convey in this conventional media. Perhaps more than any other discipline, climate literacy has the most potential to be enhanced via the process of cognitive construction and reconstruction, rather than simple transmission of knowledge. Constructionism suggests that meaningful learning happens most effectively if the learner is actively engaged in constructing a product in the real world rather than absorbing information passively. Recent technological innovations have introduced mobile computing devices with sufficient power to do serious data analysis. The potential of these devices to augment climate literacy by turning citizens into scientists has yet to be exploited. We introduce ClimatePad, an iPad application that permits students and public to actively browse climate datasets, construct trends, plot time series, create composite differences and view animations of real-world climate data. Interactions with the ClimatePad permits varying the starting and ending dates of trends and differences. Climate analysis maps and animations can be customized with different color palettes, enticing the user to delve into and absorb the subtleties of the regional and temporal variations of the recent climate record. Finally, user-generated climate visualizations created with ClimatePad can be emailed to friends and shared via Facebook, entraining even more active learners.

Broken Robustness Analysis: How to make proper climate change conclusions in contradictory multimodal measurement contexts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, V.

2015-12-01

Philosophers of science discuss how multiple modes of measurement can generate evidence for the existence and character of a phenomenon (Horwich 1982; Hacking 1983; Franklin and Howson 1984; Collins 1985; Sober 1989; Trout 1993; Culp 1995; Keeley 2002; Staley 2004; Weber 2005; Keyser 2012). But how can this work systematically in climate change measurement? Additionally, what conclusions can scientists and policy-makers draw when different modes of measurement fail to be robust by producing contradictory results? First, I present a new technical account of robust measurement (RAMP) that focuses on the physical independence of measurement processes. I detail how physically independent measurement processes "check each other's results." (This account is in contrast to philosophical accounts of robustness analysis that focus on independent model assumptions or independent measurement products or results.) Second, I present a puzzle about contradictory and divergent climate change measures, which has consistently re-emerged in climate measurement. This discussion will focus on land, drilling, troposphere, and computer simulation measures. Third, to systematically solve this climate measurement puzzle, I use RAMP in the context of drought measurement in order to generate a classification of measurement processes. Here, I discuss how multimodal precipitation measures—e.g., measures of precipitation deficit like the Standard Precipitation Index vs. air humidity measures like the Standardized Relative Humidity Index--can help with the classification scheme of climate change measurement processes. Finally, I discuss how this classification of measures can help scientists and policy-makers draw effective conclusions in contradictory multimodal climate change measurement contexts.

Moving the Conversation on Climate Change and Inequality to the Local: Socio-ecological Vulnerability in Agricultural Tanzania.

PubMed

Teller, Amy S

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to shift seasonality in Tanzania, while smallholder farmers' livelihoods and the economy rely upon the success of rainfed agriculture. However, we should not a priori assume doomsday climate vulnerability scenarios of drought and devastation in the rural global South nor, on the other hand, that farmers will optimally employ local knowledge for effective adaptation. Drawing from qualitative fieldwork in two Tanzanian communities, I question these grand narratives of devastation and local adaptive capacity and introduce an approach that brings inequality to the center. Poorer nations are most vulnerable to climate change, but they are not homogenous and neither are the smallholder farmers living within them. I present evidence on the crucial context-specific dimensions of socio-ecological vulnerability for these smallholder farmers-1) water resources and access to them; 2) agricultural knowledge, including farmers' own knowledge and their interactions with sources like government-run agricultural extension and NGOs; and 3) existing drought-coping strategies-and the heterogeneity among farmers across these dimensions. Ultimately, this case demonstrates how climate change can reproduce existing inequalities within nations by drawing upon how farmers currently respond to drought as evidence. I present the difficult and somewhat bleak contexts within which the farmers are coping, but also illustrate the agency that farmers exhibit in response to these conditions and the adaptive capacity they possess. Finally, I call for more sub-national research on climate and inequality by sociologists and draw connections among within-nation inequality, climate change, and agricultural development initiatives.

An ecohydrological model to quantify the risk of drought-induced forest mortality events across climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolari, A.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2013-12-01

Regional scale drought-induced forest mortality events are projected to become more frequent under future climates due to changes in rainfall patterns. However, the ability to predict the conditions under which such events occur is currently lacking. To quantify and understand the underlying causes of drought-induced forest mortality, we propose a stochastic ecohydrological model that explicitly couples tree water and carbon use strategies with climate characteristics, such as the frequency and severity of drought. Using the model and results from a controlled drought experiment, we identify the soil, vegetation, and climate factors that underlie tree water and carbon deficits and, ultimately, the risk of drought-induced forest mortality. This mortality risk is then compared across the spectrum of anisohydric-isohydric stomatal control strategies and a range of rainfall regimes. These results suggest certain soil-plant combinations may maximize the survivable drought length in a given climate. Finally, we discuss how this approach can be expanded to estimate the effect of anticipated climate change on drought-induced forest mortality and associated consequences for forest water and carbon balances.

Integrating Climate Science, Marine Ecology, and Fisheries Economics to Predict the Effects of Climate Change on New England lobster Fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bris, A.; Pershing, A. J.; Holland, D. S.; Mills, K.; Sun, C. H. J.

2016-02-01

The Gulf of Maine and the northwest Atlantic shelf have experienced one of the fastest warming rates of the global ocean over the past decade, and concerns are growing about the long-term sustainability of the fishing industries in the region. The lucrative American lobster fishery occurs over a steep temperature gradient, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate the consequences of climate change and variability on marine socio-ecological systems. This study aims at developing an integrated climate, population dynamics, and fishery economics model to predict consequences of climate change on the American lobster fishery. In this talk, we first describe a mechanistic model that combines life-history theory and a size-spectrum approach to simulate the dynamics of the population. Results show that as temperature increases, early growth rate and predation on small individuals increases, while size-at-maturity, maximum length and predation on large individuals decreases, resulting in a lower recruitment in the southern New-England and higher recruitment in the northern Gulf of Maine. Second, we present an integrated fishery and economic module that links temperature to landings and price through its influence on catchability and abundance. Preliminary results show that temperature is positively correlated with landings and negatively correlated with price in the Gulf of Maine. Finally, we discuss how model simulations under various fishing effort, market and climate scenarios can be used to identify adaptation opportunities to improve the resilience of the fishery to climate change.

DOE Final Report on Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, C. Adam; Melillo, Jerry M.

2015-11-03

Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments thatmore » encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.« less

Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Fung, Emily; Hannah, Lee; Navarro-Racines, Carlos E; Roubik, David W; Ricketts, Taylor H; Harvey, Celia A; Donatti, Camila I; Läderach, Peter; Locatelli, Bruno; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

2017-09-26

Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73-88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46-76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8-18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46-59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10-22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34-51% of other areas. Finally, in 31-33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, Joshua J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2010-01-01

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the Western hemisphere.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J; Shafer, Sarah L; Bancroft, Betsy A; Blaustein, Andrew R

2010-02-01

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071-2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Groundwater nitrate pollution and climate change: learnings from a water balance-based analysis of several aquifers in a western Mediterranean region (Catalonia).

PubMed

Mas-Pla, Josep; Menció, Anna

2018-04-11

Climate change will affect the dynamics of the hydrogeological systems and their water resources quality; in particular nitrate, which is herein taken as a paradigmatic pollutant to illustrate the effects of climate change on groundwater quality. Based on climatic predictions of temperature and precipitation for the horizon of 2021 and 2050, as well as on land use distribution, water balances are recalculated for the hydrological basins of distinct aquifer systems in a western Mediterranean region as Catalonia (NE Spain) in order to determine the reduction of available water resources. Besides the fact that climate change will represent a decrease of water availability, we qualitatively discuss the modifications that will result from the future climatic scenarios and their impact on nitrate pollution according to the geological setting of the selected aquifers. Climate effects in groundwater quality are described according to hydrological, environmental, socio-economic, and political concerns. Water reduction stands as a major issue that will control stream-aquifer interactions and subsurface recharge, leading to a general modification of nitrate in groundwater as dilution varies. A nitrate mass balance model provides a gross estimation of potential nitrate evolution in these aquifers, and it points out that the control of the fertilizer load will be crucial to achieve adequate nitrate content in groundwater. Reclaimed wastewater stands as local reliable resource, yet its amount will only satisfy a fraction of the loss of available resources due to climate change. Finally, an integrated management perspective is necessary to avoid unplanned actions from private initiatives that will jeopardize the achievement of sustainable water resources exploitation under distinct hydrological scenarios.

Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia.

PubMed

Cola, G; Failla, O; Maghradze, D; Megrelidze, L; Mariani, L

2017-04-01

While the climate of Western Europe has been deeply affected by the abrupt climate change that took place in the late '1980s of the twentieth century, a similar signal is detected only few years later, in 1994, in Georgia. Grapevine phenology is deeply influenced by climate and this paper aimed to analyze how phenological timing changed before and after the climatic change of 1994. Availability of thermal resources in the two climatic phases for the five altitudinal belts in the 0-1250-m range was analyzed. A phenological dataset gathered in two experimental sites during the period 2012-2014, and a suitable thermal dataset was used to calibrate a phenological model based on the normal approach and able to describe BBCH phenological stages 61 (beginning of flowering), 71 (fruit set), and 81 (veraison). Calibration was performed for four relevant Georgian varieties (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi, and Saperavi). The model validation was performed on an independent 3-year dataset gathered in Gorizia (Italy). Furthermore, in the case of variety Rkatsiteli, the model was applied to the 1974-2013 thermal time series in order to obtain phenological maps of the Georgian territory. Results show that after the climate change of 1994, Rkatsiteli showed an advance, more relevant at higher altitudes where the whole increase of thermal resource was effectively translated in phenological advance. For instance the average advance of veraison was 5.9 days for 250-500 m asl belt and 18.1 days for 750-1000 m asl). On the other hand, at lower altitudes, phenological advance was depleted by superoptimal temperatures. As a final result, some suggestions for the adaptation of viticultural practices to the current climatic phase are provided.

Neo-Liberal Educational Reform and the Role of Teachers' Unions in the Context of Private Schools in Nepal: Possibility or Paralysis?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poudyal, Chandra Sharma

2015-01-01

Nepal experienced political change from absolute monarchy to constitutional monarchy in 1990 and finally to a republic in 2008. These changes in the political climate were followed by subsequent change in the educational policy as the incoming regimes tried to incorporate its ideology in the educational policy. This paper analyses the role of…

Leading change: 3--implementation.

PubMed

Kerridge, Joanna

The potential for all staff to contribute to service improvement, irrespective of discipline, role or function, is outlined in the 2011 NHS leadership framework. This advocates developing the skills of the entire workforce to create a climate of continuous service improvement. As nurses are often required to take the lead in managing change in clinical practice, this final article in a three-part series focuses on implementing ande potentia reviewing change.

The potential effects of climate change on the native vascular flora of North America. A preliminary climate envelopes analysis: Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morse, L.E.; Kutner, L.S.; Maddox, G.D.

1993-11-01

To assess the potential effects of global warming on the North American flora, the reported geographical distributions of the 15,148 native North American vascular plant species were matched with climate data for 194 geographical areas to estimate the current ``climate envelope`` for each species. Three methods of analysis were used to construct these envelopes, all based on the limits of mean annual temperatures currently experienced by each species within its present range. Published models of future climates predict a possible increase in mean annual temperatures of 3{degree}C (5.4{degree}F) within the next century. Assuming that species might be eliminated from areasmore » outside their present climate envelope, then about 7% to 11% of North America`s native plant species would be entirely out of their envelopes in a +3{degree}C climate. Rare species would be disproportionately affected -- between 10% and 18% of these species would be entirely out of their climate envelopes. However, some rare species may be able to persist at their present sites due to the availability of suitable microhabitats or genetic variation in climate tolerances. Of the more common species, only about 1% to 2% would be vulnerable in a +3{degree}C climate. The local effects of climate change on plant species would vary considerably if species withdraw from the southern or low-elevation portions of their ranges. Species may expand their ranges northwards as new areas become climatically suitable for them, producing significant changes in local floras. Species vary in their ability to make such migrations, depending upon limitations imposed by dispersal ability and/or specialized habitat requirements. An estimate of dispersibility suggests that species with narrow climate envelopes tend to lack characteristics promoting mobility.« less

Biodiversity Hotspots, Climate Change, and Agricultural Development: Global Limits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, U. A.; Rasche, L.; Schmid, E.; Habel, J. C.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems are threatened by climate and land management change. These changes result from complex and heterogeneous interactions of human activities and natural processes. Here, we study the potential change in pristine area in 33 global biodiversity hotspots within this century under four climate projections (representative concentration pathways) and associated population and income developments (shared socio-economic pathways). A coupled modelling framework computes the regional net expansion of crop and pasture lands as result of changes in food production and consumption. We use a biophysical crop simulation model to quantify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, water, and nutrient emissions for alternative crop management systems in more than 100 thousand agricultural land polygons (homogeneous response units) and for each climate projection. The crop simulation model depicts detailed soil, weather, and management information and operates with a daily time step. We use time series of livestock statistics to link livestock production to feed and pasture requirements. On the food consumption side, we estimate national demand shifts in all countries by processing population and income growth projections through econometrically estimated Engel curves. Finally, we use a global agricultural sector optimization model to quantify the net change in pristine area in all biodiversity hotspots under different adaptation options. These options include full-scale global implementation of i) crop yield maximizing management without additional irrigation, ii) crop yield maximizing management with additional irrigation, iii) food yield maximizing crop mix adjustments, iv) food supply maximizing trade flow adjustments, v) healthy diets, and vi) combinations of the individual options above. Results quantify the regional potentials and limits of major agricultural producer and consumer adaptation options for the preservation of pristine areas in biodiversity hotspots. Results also quantify the conflicts between food and water security, biodiversity protection, and climate change mitigation.

Seawater intrusion risk analysis under climate change conditions for the Gaza Strip aquifer (Palestine)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dentoni, Marta; Deidda, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Marrocu, Marino; Lecca, Giuditta

2014-05-01

Seawater intrusion (SWI) has become a major threat to coastal freshwater resources, particularly in the Mediterranean basin, where this problem is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate groundwater resources management and with serious potential impacts from projected climate changes. A proper analysis and risk assessment that includes climate scenarios is essential for the design of water management measures to mitigate the environmental and socio-economic impacts of SWI. In this study a methodology for SWI risk analysis in coastal aquifers is developed and applied to the Gaza Strip coastal aquifer in Palestine. The method is based on the origin-pathway-target model, evaluating the final value of SWI risk by applying the overlay principle to the hazard map (representing the origin of SWI), the vulnerability map (representing the pathway of groundwater flow) and the elements map (representing the target of SWI). Results indicate the important role of groundwater simulation in SWI risk assessment and illustrate how mitigation measures can be developed according to predefined criteria to arrive at quantifiable expected benefits. Keywords: Climate change, coastal aquifer, seawater intrusion, risk analysis, simulation/optimization model. Acknowledgements. The study is partially funded by the project "Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB)", FP7-ENV-2009-1, GA 244151.

A quantitative assessment of the contributions of climatic indicators to changes in nutrients and oxygen levels in a shallow reservoir in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chen; Zhang, Wenna; Liu, Hanan; Gao, Xueping; Huang, Yixuan

2017-06-01

Climate change has an indirect effect on water quality in freshwater ecosystems, but it is difficult to assess the contribution of climate change to the complex system. This study explored to what extent climatic indicators (air temperature, wind speed, and rainfall) influence nutrients and oxygen levels in a shallow reservoir, Yuqiao Reservoir, China. The study comprises three parts—describing the temporal trends of climatic indicators and water quality parameters during the period 1992-2011, analyzing the potential impacts of climate on water quality, and finally developing a quantitative assessment to evaluate how climatic factors govern nutrient levels in the reservoir. Our analyses showed that the reservoir experienced substantial cold periods (1992-2001) followed by a warm period (2002-2011). The results showed that increasing air temperature in spring, autumn, and winter and increasing annual wind speed decrease total phosphorus (TP) concentration in the reservoir in spring, summer, and winter. According to the quantitative assessment, the increase in air temperature in spring and winter had a larger contribution to the decrease in TP concentration (47.2 and 64.1%), compared with the influence from decreased wind speed and rainfall. The field data suggest that nutrients decline due to enhanced uptake by macrophytes in years when spring was warmer and the macrophytes started to grow earlier in the season. The increasing wind speed and air temperature in spring also significantly contribute to the increase in dissolved oxygen concentration. This study helps managers to foresee how potential future climate change might influence water quality in similar lake ecosystems.

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

External costs of transport in central and eastern Europe : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-08-08

Current and projected transport trends in Central and Eastern Europe are not sustainable and cause severe damage to human health and the environment. Transport-related accidents, air pollution, noise, climate change impacts, etc. generate large socia...

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific objectives and experimental design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

Iowa's renewable energy and infrastructure impacts : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

The federal government is aggressively promoting biofuels as an answer to global climate change and dependence on imported sources : of energy. Iowa has quickly become a leader in the bioeconomy and wind energy production, but meeting the United Stat...

77 FR 76510 - Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, Sussex County, DE; Final Comprehensive Conservation Plan and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-28

... included climate change, sea level rise, refuge marshes, habitat and wildlife species management, mosquito... adulticides for mosquito control when there is a documented human disease threat, instead of only when a...

Climate Change and Our Environment: The Effect on Respiratory and Allergic Disease

PubMed Central

Barnes, Charles S.; Alexis, Neil E.; Bernstein, Jonathan A.; Cohn, John R.; Demain, Jeffrey G.; Horner, Elliott; Levetin, Estelle; Nel, Andre; Phipatanakul, Wanda

2013-01-01

Climate change is a constant and ongoing process. It is postulated that human activities have reached a point at which we are producing global climate change. This article provides suggestions to help the allergist/environmental physician integrate recommendations about improvements in outdoor and indoor air quality and the likely response to predicted alterations in the earth’s environment into their patient’s treatment plan. Many changes that affect respiratory disease are anticipated. Examples of responses to climate change include energy reduction retrofits in homes that could potentially affect exposure to allergens and irritants, more hot sunny days that increase ozone-related difficulties, and rises in sea level or altered rainfall patterns that increase exposure to damp indoor environments. Climate changes can also affect ecosystems, manifested as the appearance of stinging and biting arthropods in new areas. Higher ambient carbon dioxide concentrations, warmer temperatures, and changes in floristic zones could potentially increase exposure to ragweed and other outdoor allergens, whereas green practices such as composting can increase allergen and irritant exposure. Finally, increased energy costs may result in urban crowding and human source pollution, leading to changes in patterns of infectious respiratory illnesses. Improved governmental controls on airborne pollutants could lead to cleaner air and reduced respiratory diseases but will meet strong opposition because of their effect on business productivity. The allergy community must therefore adapt, as physician and research scientists always have, by anticipating the needs of patients and by adopting practices and research methods to meet changing environmental conditions. PMID:23687635

Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.

PubMed

Martinez, Pablo Ariel; Andrade, Mayane Alves; Bidau, Claudio Juan

2018-06-01

The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring Undergraduate Engagement With The Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, N.; Danielson, R.; Lombardi, D.

2013-12-01

Engendering conceptual change from naive to scientifically sophisticated beliefs is a difficult task. One factor that fosters conceptual change is greater engagement with a topic. Yet if one asks about a topic in the wrong way, one may fail to find engagement where it exists or assume it exists where it does not. Climate change is an immense topic with consequences across many domains and people may be more concerned with specific consequences than with the topic generally. Therefore, it may be helpful to disambiguate the various risks to see which consequences people find especially engaging and which they do not. We asked 188 undergraduate students at a large university in California to rate twenty-five potential consequences of climate change on several questions. The questions were drawn from constructs that lead to greater engagement with a topic according to the Cognitive Reconstruction of Knowledge Model (Dole & Sinatra, 1998). Scores were then combined to create engagement scores. We found that two potential consequences of climate change were rated as more engaging than climate change generally: air pollution and increases in the price of food. Many consequences were rated as less engaging, including floods, stronger hurricanes, and melting permafrost. This implies that some consequences that scientists consider potentially worthy of concern are nonetheless not considered engaging by many. We also asked participants several open-ended questions about their perceptions of climate change and what consequences they especially cared about. Results were broadly similar but demonstrated many misconceptions about the mechanics and consequences of climate change. Several participants expressed concerns about increases in earthquakes, changes to the ozone layer, and dangerous changes to the density of the atmosphere. We asked participants about the relationship between the terms climate change and global warming. There was considerable disagreement on how these two terms were related. This is problematic if educators assume that people are using the terms synonymously. Finally, we asked participants about whether humanity would be able to solve climate change before catastrophic consequences occurred. To our surprise, only one out of five participants believed we would do so. Some participants were unsure whether we would solve it or believed that we would only address it after some catastrophic consequences had already occurred, but the majority of participants believed that we would fail to solve it. Climate science educators have often tried to avoid portraying climate change as unavoidable and hopeless, yet many people have nonetheless come to this conclusion. Relying on positive messages about solving climate change in the hope of forestalling hopelessness may be insufficient and we may need to help people deal with feelings of hopelessness directly.

Impact of climate change and water use policies on hydropower potential in the south-eastern Alpine region.

PubMed

Majone, Bruno; Villa, Francesca; Deidda, Roberto; Bellin, Alberto

2016-02-01

Climate change is expected to cause alterations of streamflow regimes in the Alpine region, with possible relevant consequences for several socio-economic sectors including hydropower production. The impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower production is evaluated with reference to the Noce catchment, which is located in the Southeastern Alps, Italy. Projected changes of precipitation and temperature, derived from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) runs for the period 2040-2070 under the SRES A1B emission scenario, have been downscaled and bias corrected before using them as climatic forcing in a hydrological model. Projections indicate an increase of the mean temperature of the catchment in the range 2-4K, depending on the climate model used. Projections of precipitation indicate an increase of annual precipitation in the range between 2% and 6% with larger changes in winter and autumn. Hydrological simulations show an increase of water yield during the period 2040-2070 with respect to 1970-2000. Furthermore, a transition from glacio-nival to nival regime is projected for the catchment. Hydrological regime is expected to change as a consequence of less winter precipitation falling as snow and anticipated melting in spring, with the runoff peak decreasing in intensity and anticipating from July to June. Changes in water availability reflect in the Technical Hydropower Potential (THP) of the catchment, with larger changes projected for the hydropower plants located at the highest altitudes. Finally, the impacts on THP of water use policies such as the introduction of prescriptions for minimum ecological flow (MEF) have been analyzed. Simulations indicate that in the lower part of the catchment reduction of the hydropower production due to MEF releases from the storage reservoirs counterbalances the benefits associated to the projected increases of inflows as foreseen by simulations driven only by climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polish country study to address climate change: Strategies of the GHG`s emission reduction and adaptation of the Polish economy to the changed climate. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-01-01

The Polish Country Study Project was initiated in 1992 as a result of the US Country Study Initiative whose objective was to grant the countries -- signatories of the United Nations` Framework Convention on Climate Change -- assistance that will allow them to fulfill their obligations in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG`s) inventory, preparation of strategies for the reduction of their emission, and adapting their economies to the changed climatic conditions. In February 1993, in reply to the offer from the United States Government, the Polish Government expressed interest in participation in this program. The Study proposal, prepared by themore » Ministry of Environmental Protection, Natural Resources and Forestry was presented to the US partner. The program proposal assumed implementation of sixteen elements of the study, encompassing elaboration of scenarios for the strategy of mission reduction in energy sector, industry, municipal management, road transport, forestry, and agriculture, as well as adaptations to be introduced in agriculture, forestry, water management, and coastal management. The entire concept was incorporated in macroeconomic strategy scenarios. A complementary element was the elaboration of a proposal for economic and legal instruments to implement the proposed strategies. An additional element was proposed, namely the preparation of a scenario of adapting the society to the expected climate changes.« less

How Can Urban Policies Improve Air Quality and Help Mitigate Global Climate Change: a Systematic Mapping Review.

PubMed

Slovic, Anne Dorothée; de Oliveira, Maria Aparecida; Biehl, João; Ribeiro, Helena

2016-02-01

Tackling climate change at the global level is central to a growing field of scientific research on topics such as environmental health, disease burden, and its resulting economic impacts. At the local level, cities constitute an important hub of atmospheric pollution due to the large amount of pollutants that they emit. As the world population shifts to urban centers, cities will increasingly concentrate more exposed populations. Yet, there is still significant progress to be made in understanding the contribution of urban pollutants other than CO2, such as vehicle emissions, to global climate change. It is therefore particularly important to study how local governments are managing urban air pollution. This paper presents an overview of local air pollution control policies and programs that aim to reduce air pollution levels in megacities. It also presents evidence measuring their efficacy. The paper argues that local air pollution policies are not only beneficial for cities but are also important for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. The results systematize several policy approaches used around the world and suggest the need for more in-depth cross-city studies with the potential to highlight best practices both locally and globally. Finally, it calls for the inclusion of a more human rights-based approach as a mean of guaranteeing of clean air for all and reducing factors that exacerbate climate change.

Education in Austerity: Options for Planners. Fundamentals for Planning 36.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewin, Keith M.

This book explores the issues raised by the changing climate within which educational planning will take place in the final years of the 20th century. The volume focuses on the problems faced by countries hardest hit by economic recession and the need for adjustment to a changing economic environment. Organized into six chapters, the book…

Mapping urban climate zones and quantifying climate behaviors--an application on Toulouse urban area (France).

PubMed

Houet, Thomas; Pigeon, Grégoire

2011-01-01

Facing the concern of the population to its environment and to climatic change, city planners are now considering the urban climate in their choices of planning. The use of climatic maps, such Urban Climate Zone‑UCZ, is adapted for this kind of application. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the UCZ classification, integrated in the World Meteorological Organization guidelines, first can be automatically determined for sample areas and second is meaningful according to climatic variables. The analysis presented is applied on Toulouse urban area (France). Results show first that UCZ differentiate according to air and surface temperature. It has been possible to determine the membership of sample areas to an UCZ using landscape descriptors automatically computed with GIS and remote sensed data. It also emphasizes that climate behavior and magnitude of UCZ may vary from winter to summer. Finally we discuss the influence of climate data and scale of observation on UCZ mapping and climate characterization. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends and Controls of inter-annual Variability in the Carbon Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.

2014-12-01

The climate sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon budget will substantially affect the sign and strength of the land-climate feedbacks and the future climate trajectories. Current trends in the inter-annual variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes (IAV) may contribute to clarify the relative role of physical and biological controls of ecosystem responses to climate change. For this purpose we investigated how recent climate variability has impacted the carbon fluxes at long-term FLUXNET sites. Using a novel method, the IAV has been factored out in climate induced variability (physical control), variability due to changes in ecosystem functioning (biological control) and the interaction of the two terms. The relative control of the main climatic drivers (temperature, water availability) on the physical and biological sources of IAV has been investigated using both site level fluxes and global gridded products generated from the up-scaling of flux data. Results of this analysis highlight the fundamental role of precipitation trends on the pattern of IAV in the last 30 years. Our findings on the spatial/temporal trends of IAV have been finally confirmed using the signal derived from the global network of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measurements.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

2017-03-28

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Climate Odyssey: Resources for Understanding Coastal Change through Art, Science, and Sail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klos, P. Z.; Holtsnider, L.

2017-12-01

Climate Odyssey (climateodyssey.org) is a year-long sailing expedition and continuing collaboration aimed at using overlaps in science and visual art to communicate coastal climate change impacts and solutions. We, visual artist Lucy Holtsnider and climate scientist Zion Klos, are using our complimentary skills in art, science and communication to engage audiences both intuitively and cognitively regarding the urgency of climate change through story and visualization. Over the 2015 - 2016 academic year, we embarked on the sailing portion of Climate Odyssey, beginning in Lake Michigan, continuing along the Eastern Seaboard, and concluding in the tropics. Along the way we photographed climate change impacts and adaptation strategies, interviewed stakeholders, scientists, and artists. We are now sharing our photographs and documented encounters through a tangible artist's book, interactive digital map, blog, and series of K16 lesson plans. Each of our images added to the artist's book and digital map are linked to relevant blog entries and other external scientific resources, making the map both a piece of art and an engaging education tool for sharing the science of climate change impacts and solutions. After completing the sailing component of the project, we have now finalized our multi-media resources and are working to share these with the public via libraries, galleries, and K16 classrooms in coastal communities. At AGU, we will share with our peers the completed version of the series of K16 lesson plans that provide educators an easy-to-use way to introduce and utilize the material in the artist's book, digital map, and online blog. Through this, we hope to both discuss climate-focused education and engagement strategies, as well as showcase this example of art-science outreach with the broader science education and communication community that is focused on climate literacy in the U.S. and beyond.

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avolio, Elenio; Orlandi, Fabio; Bellecci, Carlo; Fornaciari, Marco; Federico, Stefano

2012-02-01

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree ( Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999-2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981-2000 and 2081-2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9 days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34 days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Climate Risk assessment and management in rainfed agriculture areas in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khresat, Saeb

2017-04-01

Agricultural production is closely tied to climate, making agriculture one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Figures and data from official resources and previous studies demonstrated that most of agricultural areas in Jordan were rainfed which made agriculture in the country more susceptible to climate change. The percentage of harvested to cultivated areas in those areas over the past ten years ranged from 45-55%, indicating a high risk associated with rainfed agriculture in Jordan. The anticipated increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation would adversely affect crops and water availability, critically influencing the patterns of future agricultural production, threatens livelihoods and keeps vulnerable people insecure. The anticipated increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation would result in 15-20% yield reduction for major field crops and vegetable crops by 2050 and 2070. This study was conducted to help in formulating action plans to adapt to climate change by assessing the risk from climate change on rainfed agriculture. The scenarios of climate change were used to assess the impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture. The overall risk level was based on possible land use shifts and crop yield under the most probable climate change scenarios. Accordingly, adaptive measures were proposed to reduce the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Jordan. The adaptation measures included the improvement of soil water storage to maximize plant water availability, the management of crop residue and tillage to conserve soil and water, the selection of drought-tolerant crop varieties, the expansion of water harvesting schemes through encouraging the farmers to adopt and apply the in-situ water harvesting systems (micro-catchment). Finally, the study emphasized the need for capacity building and awareness creation at the levels of farmers and extension staff. This would require the formulation of plans and strategies to support services that would promote adoption and adaptation. The empowerment of farmer service centers to provide technical advice and information on viable adaptation options would be needed. This also would require the development of micro-credit/revolving grants to farmers to apply the developed adaptation systems.

Strategies for Reforestation under Uncertain Future Climates: Guidelines for Alberta, Canada

PubMed Central

Gray, Laura K.; Hamann, Andreas

2011-01-01

Background Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. Conclusion/Significance More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions. PMID:21853061

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine

PubMed Central

D’Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated. PMID:29252985

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine.

PubMed

Bombi, Pierluigi; D'Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated.

Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Climate-Response Program in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lent, Robert M.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2009-01-01

This report presents a framework for a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic climate-response program designed to provide early warning of changes in the seasonal water cycle of Maine. Climate-related hydrologic changes on Maine's rivers and lakes in the winter and spring during the last century are well documented, and several river and lake variables have been shown to be sensitive to air-temperature changes. Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. The framework of the hydrologic climate-response program presented here consists of four major parts: (1) identifying homogeneous climate-response regions; (2) identifying hydrologic components and key variables of those components that would be included in a hydrologic climate-response data network - as an example, streamflow has been identified as a primary component, with a key variable of streamflow being winter-spring streamflow timing; the data network would be created by maintaining existing USGS data-collection stations and establishing new ones to fill data gaps; (3) regularly updating historical trends of hydrologic data network variables; and (4) establishing basins for process-based studies. Components proposed for inclusion in the hydrologic climate-response data network have at least one key variable for which substantial historical data are available. The proposed components are streamflow, lake ice, river ice, snowpack, and groundwater. The proposed key variables of each component have extensive historical data at multiple sites and are expected to be responsive to climate change in the next few decades. These variables are also important for human water use and (or) ecosystem function. Maine would be divided into seven climate-response regions that follow major river-basin boundaries (basins subdivided to hydrologic units with 8-digit codes or larger) and have relatively homogeneous climates. Key hydrologic variables within each climate-response region would be analyzed regularly to maintain up-to-date analyses of year-to-year variability, decadal variability, and longer term trends. Finally, one basin in each climate-response region would be identified for process-based hydrologic and ecological studies.

Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

PubMed

Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced information about the potential variations of the water balance components (e.g. river discharge, groundwater level and volume) due to climate change. Such projections were used to develop potential hazard scenarios for the case study area, to be further applied within climate change risk assessment studies for groundwater resources and associated ecosystems. This paper describes the models' chain and the methodological approach adopted in the TRUST project and analyzes the hazard scenarios produced in order to investigate climate change risks for the case study area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Teaching Earth System Science Using Climate Educational Modules Based on NASA and NOAA Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, P. C.; LaDochy, S.; Patzert, W. C.; Willis, J. K.

2011-12-01

The Earth System Science Education Alliance (ESSEA) recently developed a set of climate related educational modules to be used by K-12 teachers. These modules incorporate recent NASA and NOAA resources in Earth Science education. In the summer of 2011, these modules were tested by in-service teachers in courses held at several college campuses. At California State University, Los Angeles, we reviewed two climate modules: The Great Ocean Conveyer Belt and Abrupt Climate Change (http://essea.strategies.org/module.php?module_id=148) and Sulfur Dioxide: Its Role in Climate Change (http://essea.strategies.org/module.php?module_id=168). For each module, 4-6 teachers formed a cohort to complete assignments and unit assessments and to evaluate the effectiveness of the module for use in their classroom. Each module presented the teachers with a task that enabled them to research and better understand the science behind the climate related topic. For The Great Ocean Conveyer Belt, teachers are tasked with evaluating the impacts of the slowing or stopping of the thermohaline circulation on climate. In the same module teachers are charged with determining the possibilities of an abrupt climate shift during this century such as happened in the past. For the Sulfur Dioxide module teachers investigated the climate implications of the occurrence of several major volcanic eruptions within a short time period, as well as the feasibility of using sulfates to geoengineer climate change. In completing module assignments, teachers must list what they already know about the topic as well as formulate questions that still need to be addressed. Teachers then model the related interactions between spheres comprising the earth system (atmosphere-lithosphere, for example) to evaluate possible environmental impacts. Finally, teachers applied their research results to create lesson plans for their students. At a time when climate change and global warming are important topics in science education, these climate modules provide valuable learning experiences and resources for K-12 teachers.

Tracing society in climate change: Societal negotiations and physical dynamics of water under climate change conditions in the Cordillera Blanca region, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuburger, Martina; Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Maussion, Fabien; Singer, Katrin; Kaser, Georg

2017-04-01

Natural scientists observe and project changes in precipitation and temperature at different spatio-temporal scales and investigate impacts on glaciers and hydrological regimes. Simultaneously, social groups experience ecological phenomena as linked to climate change and integrate them into their understanding of nature and their logics of action, while political actors refer to scientific results as legitimization to focus on adaptation and mitigation strategies on global, national and regional/local level. However, natural and socio-political changes on various scales (regarding time and space) are not directly interlinked, but are communicated by energy and material flows, by discourses, power relations and institutional regulations. In this context, it remains still unclear how natural dynamics are (dis)entangled with societal processes in their historical dimensions and in their interrelations from global via national to regional and local scales. Considering the Cordillera Blanca region in Peru as an example, we analyze the intertwining of scales (global, national, regional, local) and spheres (natural, political, societal) to detect entanglements and disconnections of observed processes. Using the methodology of a time line, we present precipitation variability and glacier recession at different scales, estimate qualitative water availability and investigate the links to the implementation of international and national political programs on climate change adaptation in the Cordillera Blanca region focusing on water and agrarian programs. Finally, we include supposedly contradictory reports of rural population on climate change and related impacts on water availability and agricultural production to analyze the (dis)entanglement due to changing power relations and dominant discourses.

Disease Risk in a Dynamic Environment: The Spread of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Minnesota, USA

PubMed Central

Robinson, Stacie J.; Neitzel, David F.; Moen, Ronald A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Hamilton, Karin E.; Johnson, Lucinda B.; Mulla, David J.; Munderloh, Ulrike G.; Redig, Patrick T.; Smith, Kirk E.; Turner, Clarence L.; Umber, Jamie K.; Pelican, Katharine M.

2015-01-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease. PMID:25281302

Disease risk in a dynamic environment: the spread of tick-borne pathogens in Minnesota, USA.

PubMed

Robinson, Stacie J; Neitzel, David F; Moen, Ronald A; Craft, Meggan E; Hamilton, Karin E; Johnson, Lucinda B; Mulla, David J; Munderloh, Ulrike G; Redig, Patrick T; Smith, Kirk E; Turner, Clarence L; Umber, Jamie K; Pelican, Katharine M

2015-03-01

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease.

Regional climate service in Southern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schipper, Janus; Hackenbruch, Julia

2013-04-01

Climate change challenges science, politics, business and society at the international, national and regional level. The South German Climate Office at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) is a contact for the structuring and dissemination of information on climate and climate change in the South German region. It provides scientifically based and user-oriented climate information. Thereby it builds a bridge between the climate sciences and society and provides scientific information on climate change in an understandable way. The expertise of KIT, in which several institutions operate on fundamental and applied climate research, and of partner institutions is the basis for the work in the climate office. The regional focus is on the south of Germany. Thematic focuses are e.g. regional climate modeling, trends in extreme weather events such as heavy rain and hail event, and issues for energy and water management. The South German Climate Office is one of four Regional Helmholtz Climate Offices, of which each has a regional and thematic focus. The users of the Climate Office can be summarized into three categories. First, there is the general public. This category consists mainly of non-professionals. Here, special attention is on an understandable translation of climate information. Attention is paid to application-related aspects, because each individual is affected in a different way by climate change. Typical examples of this category are school groups, citizens and the media. The second category consists of experts of other disciplines. Unlike the first category they are mainly interested in the exchange of results and data. It is important to the climate office to provide support for the use of climatological results. Typical representatives of this category are ministries, state offices, and companies. In the third and final category are scientists. In addition to the climatologists, this category also holds representatives from other scientific disciplines, which are directly or indirectly cope with climate change. This category encompasses for example hydrologists (estimation of future flood events) and engineers (housing in a changing climate). For these three categories, different approaches are needed. First, the South German Climate Office reaches a wide audience through regular appearance in the media (newspapers, radio, and television). Because for such appearances the information content needs to be simplified quite strongly, experts will be better addressed through workshops and conferences. For example, the Climate Office has carried out a few events on "Climate and Constructions' in recent years. Several collaborations that led to project work between different scientific disciplines resulted from these events. The experience at the South German Climate Office has shown that the demand for information about climate change and its consequences is very diverse. Therefore, part of the activities is to carry out a categorized view on the requests in order to allow such a user-oriented answering. An additional role of the climate office is to enhance the general visibility of climatological results by workshops and conferences.

A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Jeremy M.; Lajeunesse, Marc J.; Rohr, Jason R.

2018-03-01

Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species1-5. Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level1, latitude6 and how phenological responses are measured7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.

Sensitivity of worst-case strom surge considering influence of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takayabu, Izuru; Hibino, Kenshi; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Mori, Nobuhito; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya

2016-04-01

There are two standpoints when assessing risk caused by climate change. One is how to prevent disaster. For this purpose, we get probabilistic information of meteorological elements, from enough number of ensemble simulations. Another one is to consider disaster mitigation. For this purpose, we have to use very high resolution sophisticated model to represent a worst case event in detail. If we could use enough computer resources to drive many ensemble runs with very high resolution model, we can handle these all themes in one time. However resources are unfortunately limited in most cases, and we have to select the resolution or the number of simulations if we design the experiment. Applying PGWD (Pseudo Global Warming Downscaling) method is one solution to analyze a worst case event in detail. Here we introduce an example to find climate change influence on the worst case storm-surge, by applying PGWD to a super typhoon Haiyan (Takayabu et al, 2015). 1 km grid WRF model could represent both the intensity and structure of a super typhoon. By adopting PGWD method, we can only estimate the influence of climate change on the development process of the Typhoon. Instead, the changes in genesis could not be estimated. Finally, we drove SU-WAT model (which includes shallow water equation model) to get the signal of storm surge height. The result indicates that the height of the storm surge increased up to 20% owing to these 150 years climate change.

Port resilience: overcoming threats to maritime infrastructure and operations from climate change : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-12-01

In the coastal zone, seaports and their intermodal connectors are key types of infrastructure that support the global : supply chain, provide regional economic activity, local transportation system services, and community jobs. The : protection of co...

Proposed Rule for Repeal of Emission Requirements for Glider Vehicles, Glider Engines, and Glider Kits

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule to finalize standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles that would improve fuel efficiency and cut carbon pollution to reduce the impacts of climate change, while bolstering energy security and spurring manufacturing innovation.

Central New Mexico climate change scenario planning project : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-04

From 2013 to 2015, the U.S. Department of Transportation (US DOT) John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) partnered with the Mid Region Council of Governments (MRCOG) and other...

HYDROLOGIC SENSITIVITY OF GLOBAL RIVERS TO CLIMATE CHANGE. (R824802)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics

PubMed Central

Haunschild, Robin; Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner

2016-01-01

This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5–6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top—the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling. PMID:27472663

Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2014-05-01

Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some months over different years. There are no chances of overtopping of the dam during the 2020s and the 2050s under A2 and B2 scenarios. _______________________________________________________________________________KEY WORDS: Climate Model, Climate Change, Hydrological Model, Climate Change Scenarios, Tarbela Reservoir, Inflow, Outflow, Evaporation, Indus River, Calibration, Bias Correction.

Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics.

PubMed

Haunschild, Robin; Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner

2016-01-01

This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5-6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top-the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling.

How will climate change affect vine behaviour in different soils?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leibar, Urtzi; Aizpurua, Ana; Morales, Fermin; Pascual, Inmaculada; Unamunzaga, Olatz

2014-05-01

Various agricultural sectors are sensitive to projected climate change. In this sense, the strong link between climate and grapevine phenology and berry quality suggests a relevant impact. Within the concept of terroir, climate is a factor that influences ripening of a specific variety and resulting wine style. Furthermore, the effect of soil on grape potential is complex, because the soil acts on grapevine water and nutrient supply, and influences root zone temperature. The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of climate change (increased CO2, higher temperature and lower relative humidity), soil texture and irrigation on the physiology, yield and berry quality of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) cv. Tempranillo. A greenhouse experiment was carried out with potted, own-rooted fruit-bearing cuttings. Three factors were studied: a) climate change (700 μmol CO2 mol-1 air, 28/18°C and 45/65% day/night relative humidity) vs. current conditions (375 μmol CO2 mol-1 air, 24/14ºC and 33/53% day/night relative humidity), b) soil texture (9, 18 and 36% soil clay content) and c) irrigation; well-irrigated (20-35% of soil water content) vs. water deficit (60% of the water applied to the irrigated plants). Berries were harvested at ripeness (21-23 ºBrix). Climate change shortened the time between veraison and full maturity up to 9 days and reduced the number of berries per bunch. Grapes grown under climate change conditions had higher pH and lower acidity (due to malic and tartaric acids), anthocyanins content and colour intensity. Water-deficit delayed ripening up to 10 days and reduced final leaf area and root weight. Berries from water stressed plants had an increased skin/pulp ratio and pH, and lower acidity (malic acid) and polyphenol content. Regarding soil texture, plants grown in the soil with lower clay content increased root fresh weight and had higher total anthocyanins content. There were no interactions between factors. In conclusion, both climate change and water-deficit had a clear influence on the grape phenological development and composition, whilst soil affected root configuration and anthocyanins concentration. Effects of climate change and water availability on different soil conditions should be considered to take full advantage or mitigate the consequences of the future climate conditions.

Communicating climate information to end-users: an experience driven by the understanding and anticipation of user needs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaumont, Diane; Huard, David; Logan, Travis; Sottile, Marie-France; Brown, Ross; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Grenier, Patrick; Braun, Marco

2013-04-01

Planning and adapting to a changing climate requires credible information about the magnitude and rate of projected changes. Ouranos, a consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change was launched in the Province of Québec, Canada, ten years ago, with the objective of developing and providing climate information and expertise in support to adaption. Ouranos differs from most other climate service centers by integrating climate modeling activities, impacts and adaptation expertise and climate analysis services under one roof. The Climate Scenarios Group operates at the interface between climate modellers and users and is responsible for developing, producing and communicating climate scenarios to end-users in a consistent manner. This process requires close collaboration with users to define, understand and eventually anticipate their needs. The varied scientific expertise of climate scenarios specialists --who also act as communicators-- has proven to be a key element for successful communication. A large amount of effort is spent on the characterization and communication of the uncertainties involved in scenario construction. Two main activities have been put in place by the experts in climate modeling to address this: (1) a training course on climate models and (2) a fact-sheet summarizing the uncertainty and robustness of the climate change scenario provided for each I&A application. The latter tool ensures the transparency, traceability, and accountability of our products, and at the same time, encourages a sense of shared responsibility for the final choice of climate scenarios. In addition to uncertainty, two other main issues have been identified as essential in communication with users: 1) observed natural variability at relevant scales and 2) reconciliation of the projected trend with the recent observed trend. Our group has devoted substantial resources for the advancement of communication with end-users in these particular areas. This presentation will provide an overview of progress in communicating climate information at the Ouranos Consortium. We will discuss success and failures and future plans, in particular the extent to which Ouranos needs to work with users in decision-making activities.

Effects of changes in climate variability and extremes on the exceedance of critical algal bloom thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, J. S.; Zia, A.; Beckage, B.; Winter, J.; Schroth, A. W.; Bomblies, A.; Clemins, P. J.; Rizzo, D. M.

2017-12-01

Identifying critical thresholds associated with algal blooms in freshwater lakes is important for avoiding persistent eutrophic conditions and their undesirable ecological, recreational and drinking water impacts. Recent Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) and Bayesian network studies have demonstrated that future climatic changes could increase the duration and intensity of these blooms. Yet, few studies have systematically examined the sensitivity of algal blooms to projected changes in precipitation and temperature variability and extremes at storm-event to seasonal timescales. We employ an IAM, which couples downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) output with hydrologic and water quality models, to examine the sensitivity of algal blooms in Lake Champlain's shallow Missisquoi Bay to potential future climate changes. We first identify a set of statistically downscaled GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) that reproduce recent historical daily temperature and precipitation observations well in the Lake Champlain basin. Then, we identify plausible covarying changes in the (i) mean and variance of seasonal precipitation and temperature distributions and (ii) frequency and magnitude of individual storm events. We assess the response of water quality indicators (e.g. chlorophyll a concentrations, Trophic State Index) and societal impacts to sequences of daily meteorological series generated from distributions that account for these covarying changes. We also discuss strategies for examining the sensitivity of bloom impacts to different weather sequences generated from a single set of precipitation and temperature distributions with a limited number of computationally intensive IAM simulations. We then evaluate the implications of modeling these changes in climate variability and extreme precipitation events for nutrient management. Finally, we consider the generalizability of our findings for water bodies with different physical and climatic characteristics and address the extent to which climate-driven alterations to terrestrial hydrologic processes, such as evapotranspiration and soil moisture storage, mediate changes to lake water quality.

Alpine glacial relict species losing out to climate change: The case of the fragmented mountain hare population (Lepus timidus) in the Alps.

PubMed

Rehnus, Maik; Bollmann, Kurt; Schmatz, Dirk R; Hackländer, Klaus; Braunisch, Veronika

2018-03-13

Alpine and Arctic species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, which is expected to cause habitat loss, fragmentation and-ultimately-extinction of cold-adapted species. However, the impact of climate change on glacial relict populations is not well understood, and specific recommendations for adaptive conservation management are lacking. We focused on the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) as a model species and modelled species distribution in combination with patch and landscape-based connectivity metrics. They were derived from graph-theory models to quantify changes in species distribution and to estimate the current and future importance of habitat patches for overall population connectivity. Models were calibrated based on 1,046 locations of species presence distributed across three biogeographic regions in the Swiss Alps and extrapolated according to two IPCC scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 & 8.5), each represented by three downscaled global climate models. The models predicted an average habitat loss of 35% (22%-55%) by 2100, mainly due to an increase in temperature during the reproductive season. An increase in habitat fragmentation was reflected in a 43% decrease in patch size, a 17% increase in the number of habitat patches and a 34% increase in inter-patch distance. However, the predicted changes in habitat availability and connectivity varied considerably between biogeographic regions: Whereas the greatest habitat losses with an increase in inter-patch distance were predicted at the southern and northern edges of the species' Alpine distribution, the greatest increase in patch number and decrease in patch size is expected in the central Swiss Alps. Finally, both the number of isolated habitat patches and the number of patches crucial for maintaining the habitat network increased under the different variants of climate change. Focusing conservation action on the central Swiss Alps may help mitigate the predicted effects of climate change on population connectivity. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Engaging Key Stakeholders in Climate Change: A Community-Based Project for Youth-Led Participatory Climate Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trott, Carlie D.

Few studies have examined how youth think about, and take action on climate change and far fewer have sought to facilitate their engagement using participatory methods. This dissertation evaluated the impacts of Science, Camera, Action! (SCA), a novel after-school program that combined climate change education with participatory action through photovoice. The specific aims of this study were to: (1) Evaluate the impacts of SCA on youth participants' climate change knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors; (2) Examine how SCA participation served to empower youth agency; and (3) Explore SCA's influence on youths' science engagement. Participants were 55 youths (ages 10 to 12) across three Boys and Girls Club sites in Northern Colorado. SCA's Science component used interactive activities to demonstrate the interrelationships between Earth's changing climate, ecosystems, and sustainable actions within communities. Photovoice, SCA's Camera component, was used to explore youths' climate change perspectives and to identify opportunities for their active engagement. Finally, SCA's Action component aimed to cultivate youth potential as agents of change in their families and communities through the development and implementation of youth-led action projects. Action projects included local policy advocacy, a tree-planting campaign, a photo gallery opening, development of a website, and the establishment of a Boys and Girls Club community garden. To evaluate SCA impacts, a combination of survey and focus group methods were used. Following the program, youth demonstrated increased knowledge of the scientific and social dimensions of the causes and consequences of climate change, as well as its solutions through human action. Though participants expressed a mix of positive (e.g., hope) and negative (e.g., sadness) emotions about climate change, they left the program with an increased sense of respect for nature, an enhanced sense of environmental responsibility, and a greater sense of urgency towards the need for climate change action. Further, participants reported increased engagement in personal pro-environmental behaviors, an enhanced sense of agency in the context of climate change, and provided strong evidence of their role as agents of change in family and community contexts. Through SCA, participants gained a deeper appreciation for science (e.g., in school, careers, and society) and reported increased interest, participation, confidence, and performance in school science. Findings contribute to the vast and growing psychology literature on climate change perceptions and action, and from the understudied perspective of youth. Through a combination of innovative methods and interactive projects, the youth in this study gained a number of psychosocial and educational benefits, while tangibly contributing to the sustainable transformation of their families and communities. Findings of this dissertation have implications for educational programs, youth organizing, and interventions aimed to strengthen youths' active engagement with critical social and scientific issues that impact their lives.

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-03-01

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary study was to address the possible causal relationships between climatic and socio-economic change and to assess the resilience of the Byzantine socio-economic system in the context of climate change impacts.

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-04-01

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary study was to address the possible causal relationships between climatic and socio-economic change and to assess the resilience of the Byzantine socio-economic system in the context of climate change impacts.

Towards a Unified Framework in Hydroclimate Extremes Prediction in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.; Zarekarizi, M.; Bracken, C.

2016-12-01

Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of hydroclimate extremes are of paramount importance in disaster mitigation and emergency management. The IPCC special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters emphasizes that the global warming would change the frequency, severity, and spatial pattern of extremes. In addition to climate change, land use and land cover changes also influence the extreme characteristics at regional scale. Therefore, natural variability and anthropogenic changes to the hydroclimate system result in nonstationarity in hydroclimate variables. In this presentation recent advancements in developing and using Bayesian approaches to account for non-stationarity in hydroclimate extremes are discussed. Also, implications of these approaches in flood frequency analysis, treatment of spatial dependence, the impact of large-scale climate variability, the selection of cause-effect covariates, with quantification of model errors in extreme prediction is explained. Within this framework, the applicability and usefulness of the ensemble data assimilation for extreme flood predictions is also introduced. Finally, a practical and easy to use approach for better communication with decision-makers and emergency managers is presented.

Animal health aspects of adaptation to climate change: beating the heat and parasites in a warming Europe.

PubMed

Skuce, P J; Morgan, E R; van Dijk, J; Mitchell, M

2013-06-01

Weather patterns in northern European regions have changed noticeably over the past several decades, featuring warmer, wetter weather with more extreme events. The climate is projected to continue on this trajectory for the foreseeable future, even under the most modest warming scenarios. Such changes will have a significant impact on livestock farming, both directly through effects on the animals themselves, and indirectly through changing exposure to pests and pathogens. Adaptation options aimed at taking advantage of new opportunities and/or minimising the risks of negative impacts will, in themselves, have implications for animal health and welfare. In this review, we consider the potential consequences of future intensification of animal production, challenges associated with indoor and outdoor rearing of animals and aspects of animal transportation as key examples. We investigate the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the epidemiology of important livestock pathogens, with a particular focus on parasitic infections, and the likely animal health consequences associated with selected adaptation options. Finally, we attempt to identify key gaps in our knowledge and suggest future research priorities.

Florida-focused climate change lesson demonstrations from the ASK Florida global and regional climate change professional development workshops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weihs, R. R.

2013-12-01

A variety of Florida-focused climate change activities will be featured as part of the ASK Florida global and regional climate change professional development workshops. In a combined effort from Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) and University of South Florida's Coalition for Science Literacy (CSL), and supported by NASA's NICE initiative, the ASK Florida professional development workshops are a series of workshops designed to enhance and support climate change information and related pedagogical skills for middle school science teachers from Title-I schools in Florida. These workshops took place during a two-year period from 2011 to 2013 and consisted of two cohorts in Hillsborough and Volusia counties in Florida. Featured activities include lab-style exercises demonstrating topics such as storm surge and coastal geometry, sea level rise from thermal expansion, and the greenhouse effect. These types of labs are modified so that they allow more independent, inquiry thinking as they require teachers to design their own experiment in order to test a hypothesis. Lecture based activities are used to cover a broad range of topics including hurricanes, climate modeling, and sink holes. The more innovative activities are group activities that utilize roll-playing, technology and resources, and group discussion. For example, 'Climate Gallery Walk' is an activity that features group discussions on each of the climate literacy principles established by the United States Global Change Research Program. By observing discussions between individuals and groups, this activity helps the facilitators gather information on their previous knowledge and identify possible misconceptions that will be addressed within the workshops. Furthermore, 'Fact or Misconception' presents the challenge of identifying whether a given statement is fact or misconception based on the material covered throughout the workshops. It serves as a way to evaluate retention of knowledge as well as clarification and reinforcement of topics. Another featured activity is 'Climate Change Scenario' in which teachers roll play as groups from various facets of local government, who decide how to deal with a given climate change scenario in the Miami-Dade county area. This activity demonstrates the complexities of negotiations that policy makers must make for the greater good of the local economy and ecology. Finally, we highlight activities that utilize online resources for both scientific information and pedagogical strategies for teaching climate change at the middle school level. Such resources include MYNASADATA, hurricane tracking websites, other scientist-vetted climate change lessons, and outreach events like NOAA's Adopt-a-drifter. These activities are highlighted for other scientists, educators, and professional development groups in the hopes that they will inspire further collaboration and further commitment to enhancing climate change education for our nation's youth.

Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

PubMed

Bond, Tami C; Sun, Haolin

2005-08-15

Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO2 (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement.

Effects of geoengineering on crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongratz, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.

2011-12-01

The potential of "solar radiation management" (SRM) to reduce future climate change and associated risks has been receiving significant attention in scientific and policy circles. SRM schemes aim to reduce global warming despite increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations by diminishing the amount of solar insolation absorbed by the Earth, for example, by injecting scattering aerosols into the atmosphere. Climate models predict that SRM could fully compensate warming at the global mean in a high-CO2 world. While reduction of global warming may offset a part of the predicted negative effects of future climate change on crop yields, SRM schemes are expected to alter regional climate and to have substantial effects on climate variables other than temperature, such as precipitation. It has therefore been warned that, overall, SRM may pose a risk to food security. Assessments of benefits and risks of geoengineering are imperative, yet such assessments are only beginning to emerge; in particular, effects on global food security have not previously been assessed. Here, for the first time, we combine climate model simulations with models of crop yield responses to climate to assess large-scale changes in yields and food production under SRM. In most crop-growing regions, we find that yield losses caused by climate changes are substantially reduced under SRM as compared with a non-geoengineered doubling of atmospheric CO2. Substantial yield losses with SRM are only found for rice in high latitudes, where the limits of low temperatures are no longer alleviated. At the same time, the beneficial effect of CO2-fertilization on plant productivity remains active. Overall therefore, SRM in our models causes global crop yields to increase. We estimate the direct effects of climate and CO2 changes on crop production, and do not quantify effects of market dynamics and management changes. We note, however, that an SRM deployment would be unlikely to maintain the economic status quo, as market shares of agricultural output may change with the different spatial pattern of climate change. More importantly, geoengineering by SRM does not address a range of other detrimental consequences of climate change, such as ocean acidification, which could also affect food security via effects on marine food webs. Finally, SRM poses substantial anticipated and unanticipated risks by interfering with complex, not fully understood systems. Therefore, despite potential positive effects of SRM on crop yields, the most certain way to reduce climate risks to global food security is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Moisture fluxes towards Switzerland: investigating future changes in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazan, Valerie; Martius, Olivia; Martynov, Andrey; Panziera, Luca

2017-04-01

High integrated vapor transport (IVT) in the atmosphere directed perpendicular to the orography is an important proxy for flood related precipitation in many mountainous areas around the world. Here we focus on flood related IVT and its changes in a warmer climate in Switzerland, where most high-impact floods events in the past 30 years were connected to exceptional IVT upstream of the mountains. Our study aims at investigating how these critical IVT values are projected to evolve in the future in a changing climate. The IVT is computed from 15 CMIP5 climate models for the past (1950-2005) and the future (2006-2100) under the RCP 8.5 scenario ("business as usual"). In order to check the accuracy of the models and the effect of the varying resolution, present day IVT from the CMIP5 models is compared with the ERA-Interim reanalysis data (period 1979-2015). A quantile mapping technique is then used to correct biases. The same bias corrections are applied to the future (2006-2100) IVT data. Finally, future changes in extreme IVT are investigated. This includes an analysis of changes in the magnitude and direction of the moisture flux in the different seasons for different regions in Switzerland.

Xylogenesis: Coniferous Trees of Temperate Forests Are Listening to the Climate Tale during the Growing Season But Only Remember the Last Words!1

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The complex inner mechanisms that create typical conifer tree-ring structure (i.e. the transition from large, thin-walled earlywood cells to narrow, thick-walled latewood cells) were recently unraveled. However, what physiological or environmental factors drive xylogenesis key processes remain unclear. Here, we aim to quantify the influence of seasonal variations in climatic factors on the spectacular changes in the kinetics of wood cell differentiation and in the resulting tree-ring structure. Wood formation was monitored in three sites over 3 years for three coniferous species (Norway spruce [Picea abies], Scots pine [Pinus sylvestris], and silver fir [Abies alba]). Cell differentiation rates and durations were calculated and related to tracheid final dimensions and corresponding climatic conditions. On the one hand, we found that the kinetics of cell enlargement and the final size of the tracheids were not explained by the seasonal changes in climatic factors. On the other hand, decreasing temperatures strongly constrained cell wall deposition rates during latewood formation. However, the influence of temperature was permanently written into tree-ring structure only for the very last latewood cells, when the collapse of the rate of wall deposition was no longer counterbalanced by the increase of its duration. Our results show that the formation of the typical conifer tree-ring structure, in normal climatic conditions, is only marginally driven by climate, suggesting strong developmental control of xylogenesis. The late breakage of the compensatory mechanism at work in the wall deposition process appears as a clue to understand the capacity of the maximum latewood density to record past temperature conditions. PMID:27208048

Xylogenesis: Coniferous Trees of Temperate Forests Are Listening to the Climate Tale during the Growing Season But Only Remember the Last Words!

PubMed

Cuny, Henri E; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K

2016-05-01

The complex inner mechanisms that create typical conifer tree-ring structure (i.e. the transition from large, thin-walled earlywood cells to narrow, thick-walled latewood cells) were recently unraveled. However, what physiological or environmental factors drive xylogenesis key processes remain unclear. Here, we aim to quantify the influence of seasonal variations in climatic factors on the spectacular changes in the kinetics of wood cell differentiation and in the resulting tree-ring structure. Wood formation was monitored in three sites over 3 years for three coniferous species (Norway spruce [Picea abies], Scots pine [Pinus sylvestris], and silver fir [Abies alba]). Cell differentiation rates and durations were calculated and related to tracheid final dimensions and corresponding climatic conditions. On the one hand, we found that the kinetics of cell enlargement and the final size of the tracheids were not explained by the seasonal changes in climatic factors. On the other hand, decreasing temperatures strongly constrained cell wall deposition rates during latewood formation. However, the influence of temperature was permanently written into tree-ring structure only for the very last latewood cells, when the collapse of the rate of wall deposition was no longer counterbalanced by the increase of its duration. Our results show that the formation of the typical conifer tree-ring structure, in normal climatic conditions, is only marginally driven by climate, suggesting strong developmental control of xylogenesis. The late breakage of the compensatory mechanism at work in the wall deposition process appears as a clue to understand the capacity of the maximum latewood density to record past temperature conditions. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

PubMed

Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

2015-01-01

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.

Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Bruno M.; Ready, Paul D.

2015-01-01

Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region. PMID:26619186

Integrating Climate Change Science and Sustainability in Environmental Science, Sociology, Philosophy and Business Courses.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudrias, M. A.; Cantzler, J.; Croom, S.; Huston, C.; Woods, M.

2015-12-01

Courses on sustainability can be taught from multiple perspectives with some focused on specific areas (environmental, socio-cultural, economic, ethics) and others taking a more integrated approach across areas of sustainability and academic disciplines. In conjunction with the Climate Change Education Program efforts to enhance climate change literacy with innovative approaches, resources and communication strategies developed by Climate Education Partners were used in two distinct ways to integrate climate change science and impacts into undergraduate and graduate level courses. At the graduate level, the first lecture in the MBA program in Sustainable Supply Chain Management is entirely dedicated to climate change science, local and global impacts and discussions about key messages to communicate to the business community. Basic science concepts are integrated with discussions about mitigation and adaptation focused on business leaders. The concepts learned are then applied to the semester-long business plan project for the students. At the undergraduate level, a new model of comprehensive integration across disciplines was implemented in Spring 2015 across three courses on Sustainability each with a specific lens: Natural Science, Sociology and Philosophy. All three courses used climate change as the 'big picture' framing concept and had similar learning objectives creating a framework where lens-specific topics, focusing on depth in a discipline, were balanced with integrated exercises across disciplines providing breadth and possibilities for integration. The comprehensive integration project was the creation of the climate action plan for the university with each team focused on key areas of action (water, energy, transportation, etc.) and each team built with at least one member from each class ensuring a natural science, sociological and philosophical perspective. The final project was presented orally to all three classes and an integrated paper included all three perspectives. The best projects are being compiled so they can be shared with the University of San Diego's planning committee.

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhu; Shi, Peijun; Zhang, Zhao; Meng, Yongchang; Luan, Yibo; Wang, Jiwei

2017-09-01

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the "fluctuation threshold" which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented "trade-offs" among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12.99%). Finally, the methodology use to separate out the influences of the climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield was proved to be feasible and robust. Designing different climate scenarios and feeding them into a crop system model is a potential way to evaluate the quantitative impact of each climate variable.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil microbial and soil microbial-plant interactions: What lies ahead?

DOE PAGES

Classen, Aimée T.; Sundqvist, Maja K.; Henning, Jeremiah A.; ...

2015-08-07

Global change is altering species distributions and thus interactions among organisms. Organisms live in concert with thousands of other species, some beneficial, some pathogenic, some which have little to no effect in complex communities. Since natural communities are composed of organisms with very different life history traits and dispersal ability it is unlikely they will all respond to climatic change in a similar way. Disjuncts in plant-pollinator and plant-herbivore interactions under global change have been relatively well described, but plant-soil microorganism and soil microbe-microbe relationships have received less attention. Since soil microorganisms regulate nutrient transformations, provide plants with nutrients, allowmore » co-existence among neighbors, and control plant populations, changes in soil microorganism-plant interactions could have significant ramifications for plant community composition and ecosystem function. Finally, in this paper we explore how climatic change affects soil microbes and soil microbe-plant interactions directly and indirectly, discuss what we see as emerging and exciting questions and areas for future research, and discuss what ramifications changes in these interactions may have on the composition and function of ecosystems.« less

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil microbial and soil microbial-plant interactions: What lies ahead?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Classen, Aimée T.; Sundqvist, Maja K.; Henning, Jeremiah A.

Global change is altering species distributions and thus interactions among organisms. Organisms live in concert with thousands of other species, some beneficial, some pathogenic, some which have little to no effect in complex communities. Since natural communities are composed of organisms with very different life history traits and dispersal ability it is unlikely they will all respond to climatic change in a similar way. Disjuncts in plant-pollinator and plant-herbivore interactions under global change have been relatively well described, but plant-soil microorganism and soil microbe-microbe relationships have received less attention. Since soil microorganisms regulate nutrient transformations, provide plants with nutrients, allowmore » co-existence among neighbors, and control plant populations, changes in soil microorganism-plant interactions could have significant ramifications for plant community composition and ecosystem function. Finally, in this paper we explore how climatic change affects soil microbes and soil microbe-plant interactions directly and indirectly, discuss what we see as emerging and exciting questions and areas for future research, and discuss what ramifications changes in these interactions may have on the composition and function of ecosystems.« less

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians

PubMed Central

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J.

2014-01-01

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. PMID:25274369

Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.

PubMed

Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J

2014-11-22

The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Urban-Climate Adaptation Tool: Optimizing Green Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellows, J. D.; Bhaduri, B. L.

2016-12-01

Cities have an opportunity to become more resilient to future climate change and green through investments made in urban infrastructure today. However, most cities lack access to credible high-resolution climate change projection and other environmental information needed to assess and address potential vulnerabilities from future climate variability. Therefore, we present an integrated framework for developing an urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT). The initial focus of Urban-CAT is to optimize the placement of green infrastructure (e.g., green roofs, porous pavements, retention basins, etc.) to be better control stormwater runoff and lower the ambient urban temperature. Urban-CAT consists of four modules. Firstly, it provides climate projections at different spatial resolutions for quantifying urban landscape. Secondly, this projected data is combined with socio-economic and other environmental data using leading and lagging indicators for assessing landscape vulnerability to climate extremes (e.g., urban flooding). Thirdly, a neighborhood scale modeling approach is presented for identifying candidate areas for adaptation strategies (e.g., green infrastructure as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding). Finally, all these capabilities are made available as a web-based tool to support decision-making and communication at the neighborhood and city levels. This presentation will highlight the methods that drive each of the modules, demo some of the capabilities using Knoxville Tennessee as a case study, and discuss the challenges of working with communities to incorporate climate change into their planning. Next steps on Urban-CAT is to additional capabilities to create a comprehensive climate adaptation tool, including energy, transportation, health, and other key urban services.

Collaborating on Climate: The Signs of the Land Camp as a Model for Meaningful Learning Between Indigenous Communities and Western Climate Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chase, M.; Brunacini, J.; Sparrow, E. B.

2016-12-01

As interest in Indigenous Knowledge (IK) grows, how can researchers ensure that collaboration is meaningful, relevant, and valuable for those involved? The Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change Camp is a collaborative project developed by the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE), the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), and the PoLAR Partnership. Modeled on AINE's Elder Academy and supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation, the camp facilitates in-depth dialogue about climate change and explores causes, impacts, and solutions through the cultural lens of Alaska Native communities. The project integrates local observations, IK, and western climate science. Participants engage with Alaska Native Elders, local climate researchers, and learn about climate communication tools and resources for responding. Following camps in 2014 and 2016, project partners identified a variety of questions about the challenges and opportunities of the collaboration that will be discussed in this presentation. For instance, what does it mean to equitably integrate IK, and in what ways are Native communities able to participate in research project design, delivery, and evaluation? How are decisions made and consensus built within cultural practices, project goals, and funding expectations? How do opportunities available to Indigenous communities to engage with western climate science broaden understanding and response? And, how does the ability to connect with and learn from Alaska Native Elders affect motivation, engagement, and community action? Finally, what is the effect of learning about climate change in a cultural camp setting?

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie; Funk, W. Chris

2015-01-01

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on the Aboveground Carbon Sequestration Rate of a Temperate Forest in Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Ma, Jun; Hu, Yuanman; Bu, Rencang; Chang, Yu; Deng, Huawei; Qin, Qin

2014-01-01

The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species. PMID:24763409

Predicting impacts of climate change on the aboveground carbon sequestration rate of a temperate forest in northeastern China.

PubMed

Ma, Jun; Hu, Yuanman; Bu, Rencang; Chang, Yu; Deng, Huawei; Qin, Qin

2014-01-01

The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species.

It Ain't the Heat, It's the Humanity: Evidence and Implications of a Knowledge-Based Consensus on Man-Made Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, P.; Cook, J.; Nuccitelli, D. A.

2013-12-01

One of the most worrisome misconceptions among the general public about climate change is a belief that scientists disagree not only about the cause of the present climate change, but also whether or not the planet is currently warming. Recent surveys have demonstrated that an overwhelming consensus exists, both within the scientific literature and among scientists with climate expertise, that the planet is warming and humans are driving this climatic change. This disconnect, or 'consensus gap', between scientific agreement and public belief has significant consequences for public understanding of the reality and cause of climate change, as well as support for potential solutions. Ensuring that the consensus message is not simply broadcast but is also accepted as legitimate by the public appears to be a primary education and communications opportunity. While the existence of a consensus is not itself evidence of a position's truth, according to Miller (2013) scientific consensus can be taken as evidence that a position is true if it is 'knowledge-based', satisfying the conditions of social calibration, apparent consilience of evidence, and social diversity. We demonstrate that the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change is knowledge-based, satisfying Miller's criteria. In so doing, we hope to increase confidence in its use as an education and communications tool, and assure the public of its validity. We show the consensus is socially calibrated, based on common evidential standards, ontological schemes, and shared formalism. We establish that consilience of evidence points overwhelmingly to the reality of anthropogenic climate change by examining the evidence from several perspectives. We identify unique fingerprints expected as a result of increased greenhouse forcing, eliminate potential natural drivers of climate change as the cause of the present change, and demonstrate the consistency of the observed climate response with known changes in natural and manmade forcings across a wide variety of indices. Finally, we determine that the consensus is socially diverse, being geographically and disciplinarily varied, supported within public and private institutions, and endorsed by research organizations as well as groups with obvious financial incentives to deny it, such as fossil fuel companies. Additionally, we briefly discuss examples of purported incorrect consensus in climate research, and detail how they fail to satisfy one or more aspects of Miller's criteria. We conclude by discussing the key role that knowledge-based consensus can potentially play in education, influencing public beliefs about climate change, and increasing support for solutions.

Vulnerability of High-Quality Winegrowing to Climate Change in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, K. N.; Field, C. B.; Matthews, M. A.; Lobell, D. B.

2009-05-01

We took an interdisciplinary approach to examine the climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity of both the ecological and social systems of winegrowing. In a three-year study, we used field, laboratory, modeling, and anthropological approaches to examine the vulnerability of the wine industry to climate change. We developed models of winegrape yields based on the effects of historical temperature and precipitation in California, and used these findings to project future yields under climate change. We examined the concentrations of phenolic compounds important to wine quality (anthocyanins and tannins) in Pinot noir grapes from across a range of mesoclimates. We found that increased concentrations of these phenolic compounds were correlated with cool temperatures in the fall the year before harvest, warm temperatures from budburst to bloom, and cool temperatures from bloom to veraison, and with lower light intensities in these highly sun-exposed vines. We also conducted interviews to examine the adaptation responses of winegrowers to environmental stresses. We found that growers undertake a wide variety of environmental management strategies in the vineyard, most of which are individual in nature, and either in response to an existing stress, or in anticipation of an imminent stress. Finally, we examined the potential adaptive capacity of the wine industry to climate change, based on its awareness of climate change, ability to react, and actual actions and barriers to action. We conclude that winegrowers have a fairly high adaptive capacity, but that successful adaptation in practice depends on including proactive and coordinated community responses, which are beginning to develop.

Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

2011-12-01

Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

Simulated crop yield in response to changes in climate and agricultural practices: results from a simple process based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldararu, S.; Smith, M. J.; Purves, D.; Emmott, S.

2013-12-01

Global agriculture will, in the future, be faced with two main challenges: climate change and an increase in global food demand driven by an increase in population and changes in consumption habits. To be able to predict both the impacts of changes in climate on crop yields and the changes in agricultural practices necessary to respond to such impacts we currently need to improve our understanding of crop responses to climate and the predictive capability of our models. Ideally, what we would have at our disposal is a modelling tool which, given certain climatic conditions and agricultural practices, can predict the growth pattern and final yield of any of the major crops across the globe. We present a simple, process-based crop growth model based on the assumption that plants allocate above- and below-ground biomass to maintain overall carbon optimality and that, to maintain this optimality, the reproductive stage begins at peak nitrogen uptake. The model includes responses to available light, water, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration as well as nitrogen fertilisation and irrigation. The model is data constrained at two sites, the Yaqui Valley, Mexico for wheat and the Southern Great Plains flux site for maize and soybean, using a robust combination of space-based vegetation data (including data from the MODIS and Landsat TM and ETM+ instruments), as well as ground-based biomass and yield measurements. We show a number of climate response scenarios, including increases in temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations as well as responses to irrigation and fertiliser application.

ANALYZING INVESTMENTS FOR MANAGING GREAT LAKES LEVELS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. (R825150)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Climate Projection Data base for Roads - CliPDaR: Design a guideline for a transnational database of downscaled climate projection data for road impact models - within the Conference's of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) TRANSNATIONAL ROAD RESEARCH PROG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Türk, Konrad

2013-04-01

The European road sector is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena, which can cause large socio-economic losses. Almost every year there occur several weather triggered events (like heavy precipitation, floods, landslides, high winds, snow and ice, heat or cold waves, etc.), that disrupt transportation, knock out power lines, cut off populated regions from the outside and so on. So, in order to avoid imbalances in the supply of vital goods to people as well as to prevent negative impacts on health and life of people travelling by car it is essential to know present and future threats to roads. Climate change might increase future threats to roads. CliPDaR focuses on parts of the European road network and contributes, based on the current body of knowledge, to the establishment of guidelines helping to decide which methods and scenarios to apply for the estimation of future climate change based challenges in the field of road maintenance. Based on regional scale climate change projections specific road-impact models are applied in order to support protection measures. In recent years, it has been recognised that it is essential to assess the uncertainty and reliability of given climate projections by using ensemble approaches and downscaling methods. A huge amount of scientific work has been done to evaluate these approaches with regard to reliability and usefulness for investigations on possible impacts of climate changes. CliPDaR is going to collect the existing approaches and methodologies in European countries, discuss their differences and - in close cooperation with the road owners - develops a common line on future applications of climate projection data to road impact models. As such, the project will focus on reviewing and assessing existing regional climate change projections regarding transnational highway transport needs. The final project report will include recommendations how the findings of CliPDaR may support the decision processes of European national road administrations regarding possible future climate change impacts. First project results are presented at the conference.

Bio-physical vs. Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on World Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Lobell, D. B.

2010-12-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. The recent paper by Hertel, Burke and Lobell (GEC, 2010) considers three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change, corresponding to the fifth, fiftieth, and ninety fifth percentiles of projected yield distributions for the world’s crops in 2030. They evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, their low productivity scenario reveals the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have hitherto focused on the most likely outcomes. The poverty impacts of price changes under the extremely adverse scenario are quite heterogeneous and very significant in some population strata. They conclude that it is critical to look beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields and highly aggregated poverty impacts. In this paper, we conduct a more formal, systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) with respect to uncertainty in the biophysical impacts of climate change on agriculture, by explicitly specifying joint distributions for global yield changes - this time focusing on 2050. This permits us to place confidence intervals on the resulting price impacts and poverty results which reflect the uncertainty inherited from the biophysical side of the analysis. We contrast this with the economic uncertainty inherited from the global general equilibrium model (GTAP), by undertaking SSA with respect to the behavioral parameters in that model. This permits us to assess which type of uncertainty is more important for regional price and poverty outcomes. Finally, we undertake a combined SSA, wherein climate change-induced productivity shocks are permitted to interact with the uncertain economic parameters. This permits us to examine potential interactions between the two sources of uncertainty.

Climate variability and demand growth as drivers of water scarcity in the Turkwel river basin: a bottom-up risk assessment of a data-sparse basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirpa, F. A.; Dyer, E.; Hope, R.; Dadson, S. J.

2017-12-01

Sustainable water management and allocation are essential for maintaining human well-being, sustaining healthy ecosystems, and supporting steady economic growth. The Turkwel river basin, located in north-western Kenya, experiences a high level of water scarcity due to its arid climate, high rainfall variability, and rapidly growing water demand. However, due to sparse hydro-climatic data and limited literature, the water resources system of the basin has been poorly understood. Here we apply a bottom-up climate risk assessment method to estimate the resilience of the basin's water resources system to growing demand and climate stressors. First, using a water resource system model and historical climate data, we construct a climate risk map that depicts the way in which the system responds to climate change and variability. Then we develop a set of water demand scenarios to identify the conditions that potentially lead to the risk of unmet water demand and groundwater depletion. Finally, we investigate the impact of climate change and variability by stress testing these development scenarios against historically strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years and future climate projections from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results reveal that climate variability and increased water demand are the main drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Our findings show that increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation and population growth exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource supply requirements, and in all cases considered increase the impacts of droughts caused by future climate variability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of combining analysis of future climate risks with other development decisions that affect water resources planning. Policy and investment decisions which maximise water use efficiency in the present day are likely to impart resilience to climate change and variability under a wide range of future scenarios and therefore constitute low regret measures for climate adaptation.

Vegetation zones in changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belda, Michal; Holtanova, Eva; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava

2017-04-01

Climate patterns analysis can be performed for individual climate variables separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. Thus, the Köppen-Trewartha classification provides integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also can be used as a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is applied on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Moreover, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. Quite significant uncertainty can be seen for some types. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries between the selected types can be studied as well providing the information on climate change signal. The shift of the boundary between the boreal zone and continental temperate zone to the north is clearly seen in most simulations as well as eastern move of the boundary of the maritime and continental type of temperate zone. However, there can be quite clear problem with model biases in climate types association. When analysing climate types in Europe and their shifts under climate change using Köppen-Trewartha classification (KTC), for the temperate climate type there are subtypes defined following the continentality patterns, and we can see their generally meridionally located divide across Europe shifted to the east. There is a question whether this is realistic or rather due to the simplistic condition in KTC following the winter minimum temperature, while other continentality indices consider rather the amplitude of temperature during the year. This leads us to connect our analysis of climate change effects using climate classification to the more detailed analysis of continentality patterns development in Europe to provide better insight on the climate regimes and to verify the continentality conditions, their definitions and climate change effects on them. The comparison of several selected continentality indices is shown.

Asymmetries in Climate Change Feedbacks: Why the Future may be Hotter Than you Think

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torn, M. S.; Harte, J.

2006-12-01

Feedbacks in the climate system are major sources of uncertainty, and climate predictions do not yet include one key set of feedbacks, namely biospheric greenhouse gas (GhG) feedbacks. Historical evidence shows that atmospheric GhG concentrations increase during periods of warming, implying a positive feedback to future climate change. We quantify this feedback for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) by combining the mathematics of feedback with both empirical ice-core information and general circulation model climate sensitivity. We find that a warming of 1.7-5.8°C predicted for the year 2100 is amplified to a warming commitment of 1.9-7.7°C, with the range deriving from different GCM simulations and paleo temperature records. Thus, anthropogenic emissions result in higher final GhG concentrations, and therefore more warming, than would be predicted in the absence of this feedback. Uncertainty in climate change predictions have been used as a rationale for inaction against the threat of global warming, based on a prevailing view that the uncertainties are symmetric, giving equal support to climate "optimists" (who think it will be a small problem) and "pessimists," (it will be a big problem). Our results show that even a symmetrical uncertainty in any component of feedback, whether positive or negative, produces an asymmetrical distribution of expected temperatures skewed towards higher temperature. For both reasons, the omission of key positive feedbacks and asymmetrical uncertainty from feedbacks, it is likely that the future will be hotter than we think, which implies more severe climate change impacts. Thus, these results suggest that a conservative policy approach would employ lower emission targets and tighter stabilization time horizons than would otherwise be required.

A Framework for Addressing Skeptics' Claims Using Evidence-Based Argumentation: Lessons Learned from Educational Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, J. L.; Bleicher, R. E.; Edwards, A.; Henderson, A.

2012-12-01

In science education, climate change is an issue that is especially useful for teaching concepts spanning several fields of science, as well the nature and practices of science. In response, we are developing a NASA-funded curriculum, titled Climate Science Investigations (CSI): South Florida, that teaches high school and first-year undergraduate level students how to analyze and use scientific data answer questions about climate change. To create an effective curriculum, we integrated lessons learned from our educational research conducted within our elementary science methods courses (Lambert, Lindgren, & Bleicher, 2012). For the past few years, we have been integrating climate science in our courses as a way to teach standards across several science disciplines and assessing our preservice teachers' gains in knowledge over the semesters. More recently, given the media attention and reports on the public's shift in opinion toward being more skeptical (Kellstedt, Zahran, & Vedlitz, 2008; Washington & Cook, 2011), we have assessed our students' perceptions about climate change and implemented strategies to help students use evidence-based scientific argumentation to address common claims of climate skeptics. In our elementary science methods courses, we framed climate change as a crosscutting theme, as well as a core idea, in the Next Generation Science Standards. We proposed that the issue and science of climate change would help preservice teachers not only become more interested in the topic, but also be more prepared to teach core science concepts spanning several disciplines (physical, life, and earth sciences). We also thought that highlighting the "practice of scientific inquiry" by teaching students to develop evidence-based arguments would help the preservice teachers become more analytical and able to differentiate scientific evidence from opinions, which could ultimately influence their perceptions on climate change. Lessons learned from our preservice teachers' conceptions and perceptions about climate change, as well as the difficulties in engaging in evidence-based argumentation, have informed and enhanced the framework for development of the CSI: South Florida curriculum. The modules are sequenced according to the proposed learning progression. First, students are introduced to the nature of science and Earth's energy balance. Students then investigate the temporal and spatial temperature data to answer the question of whether Earth is warming. Students also compare natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change, investigate the various observed and projected consequences of climate change in the fourth module, and examine ways to mitigate the effects of and adapt to climate change. Finally, students learn how to refute skeptics' claims by providing counter evidence and reasoning of why the skeptics' claim is not the appropriate explanation. This paper describes our conceptual framework for teaching students how to address the skeptics' claims using the content learned in the CSI: South Florida curriculum and evidence-based argumentation.

On our rapidly shrinking capacity to comply with the planetary boundaries on climate change.

PubMed

Mathias, Jean-Denis; Anderies, John M; Janssen, Marco A

2017-02-07

The planetary boundary framework constitutes an opportunity for decision makers to define climate policy through the lens of adaptive governance. Here, we use the DICE model to analyze the set of adaptive climate policies that comply with the two planetary boundaries related to climate change: (1) staying below a CO 2 concentration of 550 ppm until 2100 and (2) returning to 350 ppm in 2100. Our results enable decision makers to assess the following milestones: (1) a minimum of 33% reduction of CO 2 emissions by 2055 in order to stay below 550 ppm by 2100 (this milestone goes up to 46% in the case of delayed policies); and (2) carbon neutrality and the effective implementation of innovative geoengineering technologies (10% negative emissions) before 2060 in order to return to 350 ppm in 2100, under the assumption of getting out of the baseline scenario without delay. Finally, we emphasize the need to use adaptive path-based approach instead of single point target for climate policy design.

On our rapidly shrinking capacity to comply with the planetary boundaries on climate change

PubMed Central

Mathias, Jean-Denis; Anderies, John M.; Janssen, Marco A.

2017-01-01

The planetary boundary framework constitutes an opportunity for decision makers to define climate policy through the lens of adaptive governance. Here, we use the DICE model to analyze the set of adaptive climate policies that comply with the two planetary boundaries related to climate change: (1) staying below a CO2 concentration of 550 ppm until 2100 and (2) returning to 350 ppm in 2100. Our results enable decision makers to assess the following milestones: (1) a minimum of 33% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2055 in order to stay below 550 ppm by 2100 (this milestone goes up to 46% in the case of delayed policies); and (2) carbon neutrality and the effective implementation of innovative geoengineering technologies (10% negative emissions) before 2060 in order to return to 350 ppm in 2100, under the assumption of getting out of the baseline scenario without delay. Finally, we emphasize the need to use adaptive path-based approach instead of single point target for climate policy design. PMID:28169336

On our rapidly shrinking capacity to comply with the planetary boundaries on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Jean-Denis; Anderies, John M.; Janssen, Marco A.

2017-02-01

The planetary boundary framework constitutes an opportunity for decision makers to define climate policy through the lens of adaptive governance. Here, we use the DICE model to analyze the set of adaptive climate policies that comply with the two planetary boundaries related to climate change: (1) staying below a CO2 concentration of 550 ppm until 2100 and (2) returning to 350 ppm in 2100. Our results enable decision makers to assess the following milestones: (1) a minimum of 33% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2055 in order to stay below 550 ppm by 2100 (this milestone goes up to 46% in the case of delayed policies); and (2) carbon neutrality and the effective implementation of innovative geoengineering technologies (10% negative emissions) before 2060 in order to return to 350 ppm in 2100, under the assumption of getting out of the baseline scenario without delay. Finally, we emphasize the need to use adaptive path-based approach instead of single point target for climate policy design.

Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.

PubMed

Reid, Philip C; Fischer, Astrid C; Lewis-Brown, Emily; Meredith, Michael P; Sparrow, Mike; Andersson, Andreas J; Antia, Avan; Bates, Nicholas R; Bathmann, Ulrich; Beaugrand, Gregory; Brix, Holger; Dye, Stephen; Edwards, Martin; Furevik, Tore; Gangstø, Reidun; Hátún, Hjálmar; Hopcroft, Russell R; Kendall, Mike; Kasten, Sabine; Keeling, Ralph; Le Quéré, Corinne; Mackenzie, Fred T; Malin, Gill; Mauritzen, Cecilie; Olafsson, Jón; Paull, Charlie; Rignot, Eric; Shimada, Koji; Vogt, Meike; Wallace, Craig; Wang, Zhaomin; Washington, Richard

2009-01-01

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Model-based conservation planning of the genetic diversity of Phellodendron amurense Rupr due to climate change

PubMed Central

Wan, Jizhong; Wang, Chunjing; Yu, Jinghua; Nie, Siming; Han, Shijie; Zu, Yuangang; Chen, Changmei; Yuan, Shusheng; Wang, Qinggui

2014-01-01

Climate change affects both habitat suitability and the genetic diversity of wild plants. Therefore, predicting and establishing the most effective and coherent conservation areas is essential for the conservation of genetic diversity in response to climate change. This is because genetic variance is a product not only of habitat suitability in conservation areas but also of efficient protection and management. Phellodendron amurense Rupr. is a tree species (family Rutaceae) that is endangered due to excessive and illegal harvesting for use in Chinese medicine. Here, we test a general computational method for the prediction of priority conservation areas (PCAs) by measuring the genetic diversity of P. amurense across the entirety of northeast China using a single strand repeat analysis of twenty microsatellite markers. Using computational modeling, we evaluated the geographical distribution of the species, both now and in different future climate change scenarios. Different populations were analyzed according to genetic diversity, and PCAs were identified using a spatial conservation prioritization framework. These conservation areas were optimized to account for the geographical distribution of P. amurense both now and in the future, to effectively promote gene flow, and to have a long period of validity. In situ and ex situ conservation, strategies for vulnerable populations were proposed. Three populations with low genetic diversity are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change, making conservation of genetic diversity challenging due to decreasing habitat suitability. Habitat suitability was important for the assessment of genetic variability in existing nature reserves, which were found to be much smaller than the proposed PCAs. Finally, a simple set of conservation measures was established through modeling. This combined molecular and computational ecology approach provides a framework for planning the protection of species endangered by climate change. PMID:25165526

Assessing the impact of future land use and land cover changes on climate over Brazilian semiarid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunha, A. M.; Alvalá, R. S.; Kubota, P. Y.; Vieira, R.

2013-12-01

The continental surface vegetal cover has been considerably changed by human activities, mainly through natural vegetation conversion in grasslands. Such changes in surface cover may impact the regional and global climates, through of the changes in biophysical processes and CO2 exchanges between vegetation and atmosphere. In recent decades, most of the Brazilian territory has been presenting transformation in the land use/cover spatial patterns. The typical vegetation of the Brazilian semiarid, known as caatinga (closed shrubland) had been replaced by pasture lands. Based on that, the main objective of this work was to investigate the impacts of future land cover and land use changes (LCLUC) on surface processes and on the climate of Brazilian semiarid region. Numerical experiments using the AGCM/CPTEC/IBIS were performed in order to investigate the impacts of LCLUC on the climate of Brazilian semiarid due to the replacement of natural vegetation by pasture and degraded areas. The climate impacts of LUCC were assessed using climate simulations considering two scenarios of vegetation distribution: i) Potential Vegetation (Control) and ii) Future scenario of the vegetation: maximum pasture limited by areas of desert and semidesert. These degraded areas were obtained from the future projection of the biome distribution in South America developed by Salazar Velasquez (2009) using CPTEC PVMReg and emission scenarios A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In general, the simulation results showed that the LCLUC, due to the changes in relevant surface variables, has caused alterations in local and neighborhood regions climate. The LCLUC leads to a decrease in mean rainfall during dry season at study area. A meridional dipole pattern with near surface temperature increase (reduction) in the northern (southern) areas of semiarid was found. The results also highlight that LUCC led to changes in the components of the surface energy and carbon balance. These results suggest that LCLUC, even on a small scale in Brazil's semiarid region, can cause climate impacts, in local and regional scale. Finally, we highlight that the diagnosis of the evolution of LUCC and its climatic implications are essential to guide policy makers in regard to resources application and on policies development, in order to achieve a better management and planning for this important region of the country.

Climate change, water, and agriculture: a study of two contrasting regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.; Zhang, X.

2009-12-01

We present a study of potential impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in two contrasting regions, the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia and the Northern Great Plains in the United States. The Aral Sea basin is one of the most anthropogenically modified areas of the world; it is also a zone of a water-related ecological crisis. We concentrate on studying water security of five countries in the region, which inherit their water regulation from the planned economy of USSR. Water management was targeted at maximizing agricultural output through diverting the river flow into an extensive and largely ineffective network of irrigation canals. The current water crisis is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and discuss the impact of climate change on future development of the region. In the same way as the Aral Sea basin, the Northern Great Plains is expected to be a region heavily impacted by climate change. We concentrate on studying climate change impact on water resources of the region, and on the impacts of these changes on agriculture. The additional focus of our interest is Devils Lake watershed in North Dakota. Similar to Aral Sea, Devils Lake is an endorheic lake, which is heavily impacted by both the changes in climate and land conversion to agriculture. However, contrasting the dynamics of the Aral Sea, Devils Lake area has been increased dramatically in the past 70 years. We present regional projections of climate change, based on an analysis of a multimodel ensemble of GCM results, and the projections of consequent changes in performance of agriculture. We also discuss the differences in how the scenarios of socio-economic development affect the results of our modeling.

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e., changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened.

Climate Change Impacts of US Reactive Nitrogen Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinder, R. W.; Davidson, E. A.; Goodale, C. L.; Greaver, T.; Herrick, J.; Liu, L.

2011-12-01

By fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application, the US has substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here, we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions. We use the global temperature potential (GTP) as a common metric, and we calculate the GTP at 20 and 100 years in units of CO2 equivalents. At both time-scales, nitrogen enhancement of CO2 uptake has the largest impact, because in the eastern US, areas of high nitrogen deposition are co-located with forests. In the short-term, the effect due to NOx altering ozone and methane concentrations is also substantial, but are not important on the 100 year time scale. Finally, the GTP of N2O emissions is substantial at both time scales. We have also attributed these impacts to combustion and agricultural sources, and quantified the uncertainty. Reactive nitrogen from combustion sources contribute more to cooling than warming. The impacts of agricultural sources tend to cancel each other out, and the net effect is uncertain. Recent trends show decreasing reactive nitrogen from US combustion sources, while agricultural sources are increasing. Fortunately, there are many mitigation strategies currently available to reduce the climate change impacts of US agricultural sources.

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

PubMed

Mendoza-González, Gabriela; Martínez, M Luisa; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Vázquez, Gabriela; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B

2013-08-01

Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Migration, climate and health].

PubMed

Tellier, Siri; Carballo, Manuel; Calballo, Manuel

2009-10-26

Many tentative connections have been postulated between migration and climate. This article points to rural-urban migration, particularly into low elevation urban slums prone to flooding as an issue needing urgent attention by health professionals. It also notes the no-man's land in which environmental refugees find themselves and the consequences this may have. Finally, it points to the urgent need to reform health systems in both developing and developed countries to adapt to rapidly changing disease patterns and to become more responsive to them.

A fickle sun could be altering Earth`s climate after all

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

1995-08-01

A long effort to link slight fluctuations in solar output with climate on Earth may finally be succeeding. A cycle of temperature changes in much of the middle and low atmosphere matches the 11 year sunspot cycle over much of the Northern Hemisphere. The findings were reported at the International Union of Geodesy and Gophysics meeting in Colorado. This article discusses the evidence and the modeling which has been done to reveal this possible connection. 1 fig.

Application of climatic indices to analyse viticultural suitability in Extremadura, south-western Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; de Salazar, Enrique Martínez

2016-01-01

Although climate is recognised as one of the main drivers of viticulture success, its main features have not been sufficiently described in many viticultural regions, including Extremadura, which contains one of the largest grapevine-growing areas in Europe. Using climatic data from 80 weather stations located throughout Extremadura, seven bioclimatic indices were calculated to estimate heat accumulation and potential water balance during the growing season and the thermal regime during the ripening of grapes. Differences in some climatic indices were found, and after a multivariate geographic analysis, four groups were delimited containing weather stations with similar climatic features, with variability between groups explained by heat accumulation and tempearture and thermal amplitude during the ripening season. Suitability for cultivation of grapevines without thermal restriction and temperate nights during the ripening period are the main characteristics of the weather stations studied, but spatial variability found in climatic potential denotes the importance of differentiating locations to properly relate the viticultural climate to grape quality factors and the style of wines produced. The climatic features of the four groups are very similar to those described in other viticultural regions, including those in close proximity to Extremadura and others worldwide, but few studies have used broad and updated temporal climate data for computing bioclimatic indices as in this case study. Finally, trends in climate indices were analysed. Results revealed that all groups have experienced warmer growing seasons, driven mainly by changes in minimum temperatures. This fact has numerous potential impacts, including changes in grapevine phenological timing, disruption of balanced composition in grapes (ultimately affecting wine characteristics), alterations in varieties grown and spatial changes in viable winegrape-growing zones.

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA accessible to a broader audience.

Current Climate Variability & Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

2013-12-01

Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and climate change. The next section guides students through the exploration of temporal changes in global temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Students discover that there has been global warming over the past several decades, and the subsequent section allows them to consider solar radiation and greenhouse gases as possible causes of this warming. Students then zoom in on different latitudinal zones to examine changes in temperature for each zone and hypothesize about why one zone may have warmed more than others. The final section, prior to the answering of the essential questions, is an examination of the following effects of the current change in temperatures: loss of sea ice; rise of sea level; loss of permafrost loss; and moistening of the atmosphere. The lab addresses 14 climate-literacy concepts and all seven climate-literacy principles through data and images that are mainly NASA products. It focuses on the satellite era of climate data; therefore, 1979 is the typical starting year for most datasets used by students. Additionally, all time-series analysis end with the latest year with full-year data availability; thus, the climate variability and trends truly are 'current.'

Future premature mortality due to O3, secondary inorganic aerosols and primary PM in Europe--sensitivity to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, population and building stock.

PubMed

Geels, Camilla; Andersson, Camilla; Hänninen, Otto; Lansø, Anne Sofie; Schwarze, Per E; Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-03-04

Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000-2009, 2050-2059 and 2080-2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

PubMed Central

Geels, Camilla; Andersson, Camilla; Hänninen, Otto; Lansø, Anne Sofie; Schwarze, Per E.; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-01-01

Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future. PMID:25749320

Solar dimming above temperate forests and its impact on local climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tudoroiu, M.; Genesio, L.; Gioli, B.; Schume, H.; Knohl, A.; Brümmer, C.; Miglietta, F.

2018-06-01

Vegetation has a substantial impact on the local climate. Land cover changes through afforestation or deforestation can amplify or mitigate climate warming by changes in biophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms. In the montane to subalpine area of the Eastern Alps in Europe, where forests have constantly expanded in the last four decades, data of meteorological stations show a consistent reduction in incoming global radiation for the period 2000–2015. To assess the potential role of forests in contributing to such a reduction, three site pairs in Central Europe with neighbouring forest and non-forest sites were analysed. In all the pairs, a lower amount of incoming radiation was recorded at the forest site. When biophysical mechanisms such as albedo, surface roughness and Bowen ratio changes were modelled together with changes in global radiation, the total radiative forcing accounted for a rate of change in air temperature was equal to 0.032 °C ± 0.01 °C per Wm‑2. These results suggest that local climate is influenced by land cover change through afforestation both via albedo and radiation feedbacks but also by means of indirect biophysical and species-dependent mechanisms. The data obtained for the site pairs in Central Europe are finally discussed to infer the occurrence of similar forest-driven effects in the Eastern Alps which may explain part of the solar dimming observed in high elevation weather stations.

Evaluating a 5 year climate change research teacher professional development program in Southern Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buck, P.; Rudd, L.; McAlister, J.; Bonde, A.

2013-12-01

We present results of a 5 yr NSF funded project, part of Nevada ';s Climate Change Research Education and Outreach EPSCoR award. Goals of the K-12 portion of the project included: a replicable professional development model of K-12 climate change science education for Nevada and other institutions; strengthened relationships between secondary school teachers and NSHE climate change researchers; and greater teacher pedagogical content knowledge in climate change science and greater confidence in ability to teach effectively. Two overarching research questions formed the foundation of our teacher professional development program: 1) How will climate change affect Nevada's baseline water resources (groundwater and surface water) and linked ecosystem services? 2) How will climate change affect natural and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., wildland fires, invasive species, and insect outbreaks)? All teachers participated in at least one (2-week long) summer institute and academic year follow up focused on one of two overarching research questions forming the basis of the award assisted by a disciplinary graduate student . An on-line class (ENV 794) was a 3 credit graduate credit bearing class from UNLV based on the fundamentals of climate change science was available free to participating teachers. A supplemental program in the final award year was added following advisory board recommendations to develop a cohort or "learning community" approach at an interested high school. The 'About Climate Change' Integrated Curriculum spans several subject areas and cuts across national standards for STEM English and Social Studies; a 2-week unit developed by Clark HS teachers for their classes. Our teachers increased their content knowledge about climate change science. This is indicated in student evaluations of the on-line course ENV 794, and in the summer institute post test of content knowledge which included about 25 questions. There was improvement for our one focus question about climate change having the greatest impact on high-latitudes. While there was no improvement on our focus question of human produced CO2 being greater than nature sequestered CO2, for this question nearly everyone got it correct pre and post, which makes it seem that our group of teachers began the institute with an understanding that humans are producing CO2 which has an impact on climate and our summer institutes nurtured that understanding. Teachers feel that they are more competent to teach climate change science effectively in the classroom. All teachers rated themselves as significantly more confident in reference to selected focus questions (11 in total, only 4 are described here). They were asked to describe their current belief about their level of skill and knowledge in teaching the following topics; Q#1 explain the greenhouse effect; Q#6 relate climate change to disturbances in natural ecosystems; Q#8 incorporate climate change labs into your science teaching; and Q#10 teach about local impacts of climate change in your science classroom. Each teacher was observed delivering a lesson plan in their classroom. We conducted no formal audit or assessment of any teachers pedagogical skill in teaching-this was beyond the scope of the project. Likewise, the program did not attempt to assess learning of the students taught by our teachers.

58th SOW Low-Dust Helicopter Landing Zone Final Environmental Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-01

Effects AQCR Air Quality Control Region BASH Bird/wildlife-Aircraft Strike Hazard CEQ Council on Environmental Quality CFR Code of Federal Regulations...force would continue to be applied to minimize risks to aircrews and the general population. No unacceptable hazards to military personnel, the public...and Final EA As a result of comments received on the Draft EA, Section 3.1.2, Global Climate Change, and Hazardous and Toxic Materials and Waste

Future Precipitation Extremes in China Under Climate Change and Their Possible Mechanisms by Regional Climate Model and Earth System Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, P.; Xie, Z.

2017-12-01

Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.

Uncertainty in future agro-climate projections in the United States and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Xu, Liyi; Snyder, Richard

2016-05-01

Scientific challenges exist on how to extract information from the wide range of projected impacts simulated by crop models driven by climate ensembles. A stronger focus is required to understand and identify the mechanisms and drivers of projected changes in crop yield. In this study, we investigate the robustness of future projections of five metrics relevant to agriculture stakeholders (accumulated frost days, dry days, growing season length, plant heat stress and start of field operations). We use a large ensemble of climate simulations by the MIT IGSM-CAM integrated assessment model that accounts for the uncertainty associated with different emissions scenarios, climate sensitivities, and representations of natural variability. By the end of the century, the US is projected to experience fewer frosts, a longer growing season, more heat stress and an earlier start of field operations—although the magnitude and even the sign of these changes vary greatly by regions. Projected changes in dry days are shown not to be robust. We highlight the important role of natural variability, in particular for changes in dry days (a precipitation-related index) and heat stress (a threshold index). The wide range of our projections compares well the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, especially for temperature-related indices. This suggests that using a single climate model that accounts for key sources of uncertainty can provide an efficient and complementary framework to the more common approach of multi-model ensembles. We also show that greenhouse gas mitigation has the potential to significantly reduce adverse effects (heat stress, risks of pest and disease) of climate change on agriculture, while also curtailing potentially beneficial impacts (earlier planting, possibility for multiple cropping). A major benefit of climate mitigation is potentially preventing changes in several indices to emerge from the noise of natural variability, even by 2100. This has major implications considering that any significant climate change impacts on crop yield would result in nation-wide changes in the agriculture sector. Finally, we argue that the analysis of agro-climate indices should more often complement crop model projections, as they can provide valuable information to better understand the drivers of changes in crop yield and production and thus better inform adaptation decisions.

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES. (R826939)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

THE RESPONSE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY SALINITY TO CLIMATE-INDUCED CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.;

Adaptive population divergence and directional gene flow across steep elevational gradients in a climate‐sensitive mammal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waterhouse, Matthew D.; Erb, Liesl P.; Beever, Erik; Russello, Michael A.

2018-01-01

The American pika is a thermally sensitive, alpine lagomorph species. Recent climate-associated population extirpations and genetic signatures of reduced population sizes range-wide indicate the viability of this species is sensitive to climate change. To test for potential adaptive responses to climate stress, we sampled pikas along two elevational gradients (each ~470 to 1640 m) and employed three outlier detection methods, BAYESCAN, LFMM, and BAYPASS, to scan for genotype-environment associations in samples genotyped at 30,763 SNP loci. We resolved 173 loci with robust evidence of natural selection detected by either two independent analyses or replicated in both transects. A BLASTN search of these outlier loci revealed several genes associated with metabolic function and oxygen transport, indicating natural selection from thermal stress and hypoxia. We also found evidence of directional gene flow primarily downslope from large high-elevation populations and reduced gene flow at outlier loci, a pattern suggesting potential impediments to the upward elevational movement of adaptive alleles in response to contemporary climate change. Finally, we documented evidence of reduced genetic diversity associated the south-facing transect and an increase in corticosterone stress levels associated with inbreeding. This study suggests the American pika is already undergoing climate-associated natural selection at multiple genomic regions. Further analysis is needed to determine if the rate of climate adaptation in the American pika and other thermally sensitive species will be able to keep pace with rapidly changing climate conditions.

Sr/Ca and δ18O records of a coral from Sanya: reconstructions of temperature and precipitation in the northern South China Sea in the late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A.

2016-12-01

Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history.

Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

2012-12-01

There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the daily temperature from its 30-year mean exceeding one standard deviation of the mean daily temperatures collected for the same date throughout 1971-2000. In the same way, the days with "significant change" in the number of tweets on climate change were defined. Pearson correlation between the anomalies in blogging intensity and temperature index was 0.28 (significance 0.001, N=174); Spearman's ρ = 0.27 (significance 0.001, N=174). At the same time, the number of tweets originating from the entire USA, while following closely the New York frequency numbers (Pearson correlation 0.69), did not demonstrate a significant correlation with the New York area weather: Pearson correlation was 0.14 (significance 0.075); Spearman's ρ = 0.14 (significance 0.077).The preliminary analysis has confirmed that the weather anomalies experienced at a certain location is perceived by general public as proxy of climate change and is immediately reflected in the intensity of microblogging discussing climate change.

Climate change risk analysis framework (CCRAF) a probabilistic tool for analyzing climate change uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legget, J.; Pepper, W.; Sankovski, A.; Smith, J.; Tol, R.; Wigley, T.

2003-04-01

Potential risks of human-induced climate change are subject to a three-fold uncertainty associated with: the extent of future anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions; global and regional climatic responses to emissions; and impacts of climatic changes on economies and the biosphere. Long-term analyses are also subject to uncertainty regarding how humans will respond to actual or perceived changes, through adaptation or mitigation efforts. Explicitly addressing these uncertainties is a high priority in the scientific and policy communities Probabilistic modeling is gaining momentum as a technique to quantify uncertainties explicitly and use decision analysis techniques that take advantage of improved risk information. The Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework (CCRAF) presented here a new integrative tool that combines the probabilistic approaches developed in population, energy and economic sciences with empirical data and probabilistic results of climate and impact models. The main CCRAF objective is to assess global climate change as a risk management challenge and to provide insights regarding robust policies that address the risks, by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and by adapting to climate change consequences. The CCRAF endogenously simulates to 2100 or beyond annual region-specific changes in population; GDP; primary (by fuel) and final energy (by type) use; a wide set of associated GHG emissions; GHG concentrations; global temperature change and sea level rise; economic, health, and biospheric impacts; costs of mitigation and adaptation measures and residual costs or benefits of climate change. Atmospheric and climate components of CCRAF are formulated based on the latest version of Wigley's and Raper's MAGICC model and impacts are simulated based on a modified version of Tol's FUND model. The CCRAF is based on series of log-linear equations with deterministic and random components and is implemented using a Monte-Carlo method with up to 5000 variants per set of fixed input parameters. The shape and coefficients of CCRAF equations are derived from regression analyses of historic data and expert assessments. There are two types of random components in CCRAF - one reflects a year-to-year fluctuations around the expected value of a given variable (e.g., standard error of the annual GDP growth) and another is fixed within each CCRAF variant and represents some essential constants within a "world" represented by that variant (e.g., the value of climate sensitivity). Both types of random components are drawn from pre-defined probability distributions functions developed based on historic data or expert assessments. Preliminary CCRAF results emphasize the relative importance of uncertainties associated with the conversion of GHG and particulate emissions into radiative forcing and quantifying climate change effects at the regional level. A separates analysis involves an "adaptive decision-making", which optimizes the expected future policy effects given the estimated probabilistic uncertainties. As uncertainty for some variables evolve over the time steps, the decisions also adapt. This modeling approach is feasible only with explicit modeling of uncertainties.

Not All Skepticism Is Equal: Exploring the Ideological Antecedents of Science Acceptance and Rejection

PubMed Central

Rutjens, Bastiaan T.; Sutton, Robbie M.; van der Lee, Romy

2017-01-01

Many topics that scientists investigate speak to people’s ideological worldviews. We report three studies—including an analysis of large-scale survey data—in which we systematically investigate the ideological antecedents of general faith in science and willingness to support science, as well as of science skepticism of climate change, vaccination, and genetic modification (GM). The main predictors are religiosity and political orientation, morality, and science understanding. Overall, science understanding is associated with vaccine and GM food acceptance, but not climate change acceptance. Importantly, different ideological predictors are related to the acceptance of different scientific findings. Political conservatism best predicts climate change skepticism. Religiosity, alongside moral purity concerns, best predicts vaccination skepticism. GM food skepticism is not fueled by religious or political ideology. Finally, religious conservatives consistently display a low faith in science and an unwillingness to support science. Thus, science acceptance and rejection have different ideological roots, depending on the topic of investigation. PMID:29191107

Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change

DOE PAGES

Zaveri, Esha; Grogan, Danielle S.; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; ...

2016-08-03

India is one of the world's largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India's agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people. Groundwater overexploitation has led to drastic declines in groundwater levels, threatening to push this vital resource out of reach for millions of small-scale farmers who are the backbone of India's food security. Historically, losing access to groundwater has decreased agricultural production and increased poverty. We take a multidisciplinary approach to assess climate change challenges facing India's agricultural system, and to assess the effectiveness of large-scalemore » water infrastructure projects designed to meet these challenges. We find that even in areas that experience climate change induced precipitation increases, expansion of irrigated agriculture will require increasing amounts of unsustainable groundwater. Finally, the large proposed national river linking project has limited capacity to alleviate groundwater stress. Thus, without intervention, poverty and food insecurity in rural India is likely to worsen.« less

Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zaveri, Esha; Grogan, Danielle S.; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

India is one of the world's largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India's agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people. Groundwater overexploitation has led to drastic declines in groundwater levels, threatening to push this vital resource out of reach for millions of small-scale farmers who are the backbone of India's food security. Historically, losing access to groundwater has decreased agricultural production and increased poverty. We take a multidisciplinary approach to assess climate change challenges facing India's agricultural system, and to assess the effectiveness of large-scalemore » water infrastructure projects designed to meet these challenges. We find that even in areas that experience climate change induced precipitation increases, expansion of irrigated agriculture will require increasing amounts of unsustainable groundwater. Finally, the large proposed national river linking project has limited capacity to alleviate groundwater stress. Thus, without intervention, poverty and food insecurity in rural India is likely to worsen.« less

Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

DOE PAGES

Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.; ...

2017-04-05

Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a negative feedback for climate change. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent biogeochemical processes can suppress global GPP growth. In consequence, model estimates of terrestrial carbon storage and carbon cycle –climate feedbacks remain poorly constrained. Here we present a global, measurement-based estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century based on long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulphide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. Here, we interpret these records using a model that simulates changes in COS concentration due to changes in its sources and sinks, including amore » large sink that is related to GPP. We find that the COS record is most consistent with climate-carbon cycle model simulations that assume large GPP growth during the twentieth century (31% ± 5%; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Finally, while this COS analysis does not directly constrain estimates of future GPP growth it provides a global-scale benchmark for historical carbon cycle simulations.« less

Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.

Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a negative feedback for climate change. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent biogeochemical processes can suppress global GPP growth. In consequence, model estimates of terrestrial carbon storage and carbon cycle –climate feedbacks remain poorly constrained. Here we present a global, measurement-based estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century based on long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulphide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. Here, we interpret these records using a model that simulates changes in COS concentration due to changes in its sources and sinks, including amore » large sink that is related to GPP. We find that the COS record is most consistent with climate-carbon cycle model simulations that assume large GPP growth during the twentieth century (31% ± 5%; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Finally, while this COS analysis does not directly constrain estimates of future GPP growth it provides a global-scale benchmark for historical carbon cycle simulations.« less

Stable Water Use Efficiency under Climate Change of Three Sympatric Conifer Species at the Alpine Treeline.

PubMed

Wieser, Gerhard; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas; Leo, Marco; Matyssek, Rainer; Grams, Thorsten Erhard Edgar

2016-01-01

The ability of treeline associated conifers in the Central Alps to cope with recent climate warming and increasing CO2 concentration is still poorly understood. We determined tree ring stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of Pinus cembra, Picea abies, and Larix decidua trees from 1975 to 2010. Stable isotope ratios were compared with leaf level gas exchange measurements carried out in situ between 1979 and 2007. Results indicate that tree ring derived intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of P. cembra, P. abies and L. decidua remained constant during the last 36 years despite climate warming and rising atmospheric CO2. Temporal patterns in Δ(13)C and Δ(18)O mirrored leaf level gas exchange assessments, suggesting parallel increases of CO2-fixation and stomatal conductance of treeline conifer species. As at the study site soil water availability was not a limiting factor iWUE remained largely stable throughout the study period. The stability in iWUE was accompanied by an increase in basal area increment (BAI) suggesting that treeline trees benefit from both recent climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Finally, our results suggest that iWUE may not change species composition at treeline in the Austrian Alps due to similar ecophysiological responses to climatic changes of the three sympatric study species.

Biophysical impacts of climate-smart agriculture in the Midwest United States.

PubMed

Bagley, Justin E; Miller, Jesse; Bernacchi, Carl J

2015-09-01

The potential impacts of climate change in the Midwest United States present unprecedented challenges to regional agriculture. In response to these challenges, a variety of climate-smart agricultural methodologies have been proposed to retain or improve crop yields, reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, retain soil quality and increase climate resilience of agricultural systems. One component that is commonly neglected when assessing the environmental impacts of climate-smart agriculture is the biophysical impacts, where changes in ecosystem fluxes and storage of moisture and energy lead to perturbations in local climate and water availability. Using a combination of observational data and an agroecosystem model, a series of climate-smart agricultural scenarios were assessed to determine the biophysical impacts these techniques have in the Midwest United States. The first scenario extended the growing season for existing crops using future temperature and CO2 concentrations. The second scenario examined the biophysical impacts of no-till agriculture and the impacts of annually retaining crop debris. Finally, the third scenario evaluated the potential impacts that the adoption of perennial cultivars had on biophysical quantities. Each of these scenarios was found to have significant biophysical impacts. However, the timing and magnitude of the biophysical impacts differed between scenarios. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Gravity Field Changes due to Long-Term Sea Level Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarynskyy, O.; Kuhn, M.; Featherstone, W. E.

2004-12-01

Long-term sea level changes caused by climatic changes (e.g. global warming) will alter the system Earth. This includes the redistribution of ocean water masses due to the migration of cold fresh water from formerly ice-covered regions to the open oceans mainly caused by the deglaciation of polar ice caps. Consequently also a change in global ocean circulation patterns will occur. Over a longer timescale, such mass redistributions will be followed by isostatic rebound/depression due to the changed surface un/loading, resulting in variable sea level change around the world. These, in turn, will affect the gravity field, location of the geocentre, and the Earth's rotation vector. This presentation focuses mainly on gravity field changes induced by long-term (hundredths to many thousand years) sea level changes using an Earth System Climate Model (ESCM) of intermediate complexity. In this study, the coupled University of Victoria (Victoria, Canada) Earth System Climate Model (Uvic ESCM) was used, which embraces the primary thermodynamic and hydrological components of the climate system including sea and land-ice information. The model was implemented to estimate changes in global precipitation, ocean mass redistribution, seawater temperature and salinity on timescales from hundreds to thousands years under different greenhouse warming scenarios. The sea level change output of the model has been converted into real mass changes by removing the steric effect, computed from seawater temperature and salinity information at different layers also provided by Uvic ESCM. Finally the obtained mass changes have been converted into changes of the gravitational potential and subsequently of the geoid height using a spherical harmonic representation of the different data. Preliminary numerical results are provided for sea level change as well as change in geoid height.

Dietary variation and stress among prehistoric Jomon foragers from Japan.

PubMed

Temple, Daniel H

2007-08-01

Current archaeological evidence indicates that greater dietary reliance on marine resources is recorded among the eastern Jomon, while plant dependence prevailed in western/inland Japan. The hypothesis that the dietary choices of the western/inland Jomon will be associated with greater systemic stress is tested by comparing carious tooth and enamel hypoplasia frequencies between the eastern and western/inland Jomon. Demographic collapse coincides with climate change during the Middle to Late Jomon period, suggesting dwindling resource availability. It is hypothesized that this change was associated with greater systemic stress and/or dietary change among the Middle to Late Jomon. This hypothesis is tested by comparing enamel hypoplasia and carious tooth frequencies between Middle to Late and Late to Final Jomon foragers. Enamel hypoplasia was significantly more prevalent among the western/inland Jomon. Such findings are consistent with archaeological studies that argue for greater plant consumption and stresses associated with seasonal resource depletion among the western/inland Jomon. Approximately equivalent enamel hypoplasia frequencies between Middle to Late and Late to Final Jomon foragers argues against a demographic collapse in association with diminished nutritional returns. Significant differences in carious tooth frequencies are, however, observed between Middle to Late and Late to Final Jomon foragers. These results suggest a subsistence shift during the Middle to Late Jomon period, perhaps in response to a changed climate. The overall patterns of stress documented by this study indicate wide-spread environmentally directed biological variation among the prehistoric Jomon. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Climate Change Impact on Variability of Rainfall Intensity in Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worku, L. Y.

2015-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are major problems in Ethiopia with the resulting floods that usually could cause significant damage to agriculture, ecology, infrastructure, disruption to human activities, loss of property, loss of lives and disease outbreak. The aim of this study was to explore the likely changes of precipitation extreme changes due to future climate change. The study specifically focuses to understand the future climate change impact on variability of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency in Upper Blue Nile basin. Precipitations data from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been used in the study are HadCM3 and CGCM3. Rainfall frequency analysis was carried out to estimate quantile with different return periods. Probability Weighted Method (PWM) selected estimation of parameter distribution and L-Moment Ratio Diagrams (LMRDs) used to find the best parent distribution for each station. Therefore, parent distributions for derived from frequency analysis are Generalized Logistic (GLOG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Gamma & Pearson III (P3) parent distribution. After analyzing estimated quantile simple disaggregation model was applied in order to find sub daily rainfall data. Finally the disaggregated rainfall is fitted to find IDF curve and the result shows in most parts of the basin rainfall intensity expected to increase in the future. As a result of the two GCM outputs, the study indicates there will be likely increase of precipitation extremes over the Blue Nile basin due to the changing climate. This study should be interpreted with caution as the GCM model outputs in this part of the world have huge uncertainty.

Morphological Inheritance in Sandy Coastline Morphologies Subject to Long-Term Changes in Wave Climate: Surprising Insights from a Coastline Evolution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, A. B.; Thomas, C.; Hurst, M. D.; Barkwith, A.; Ashton, A. D.; Ellis, M. A.

2014-12-01

Recent numerical modelling demonstrates that when sandy coastlines are affected predominantly by waves approaching from "high" angles (> ~45° between the coastline and wave crests at the offshore limit of shore-parallel contours), large-scale (kms to 100 kms) morphodynamic instabilities and finite-amplitude interactions can lead to the emergence of striking coastline features, including sand waves, capes and spits. The type of feature that emerges depends on the wave climate, defined as the angular distribution of wave influences on alongshore sediment transport. Under a constant wave climate, coastline morphology reaches a dynamical steady state; the cross-shore/alongshore aspect ratio and the general appearance of the features remains constant. In previous modelling involving wave-climate change, as well as comparisons between observed coastline morphologies and wave climates, it has been implicitly assumed that the morphology adjusts in a quasi-equilibrium fashion, so that at any time the coastline shape reflects the current forcing. However, here we present new model results showing pronounced path dependence in coastline morphodynamics. In experiments with a period of constant wave climate followed by a period of transition to a new wave climate and then a run-on phase, the features that exist during the run-on phase can be qualitatively and quantitatively different from those that would develop initially under the final wave climate. Although the features inherited from the past wave-climate history may in some case be true alternate stable states, in other cases the inherited features gradually decay toward the morphology that would be expected given the final wave climate. A suite of such experiments allows us to characterize how the e-folding timescale of this decay depends on 1) the initial wave climate, 2) the path through wave-climate space, and 3) the rate of transition. When the initial features are flying spits with cross-shore amplitudes of 6 - 8 km, e-folding times can be on the order of millennia or longer. These results could provide a new perspective when interpreting current and past coastline features. In addition, the complex paleo-coastline structure that develops in the coastal hinterlands in these experiments could be relevant to the structures observed in some coastal environments.

Land use and climate change impacts on runoff and soil erosion at the hillslope scale in the Brazilian Cerrado.

PubMed

Anache, Jamil A A; Flanagan, Dennis C; Srivastava, Anurag; Wendland, Edson C

2018-05-01

Land use and climate change can influence runoff and soil erosion, threatening soil and water conservation in the Cerrado biome in Brazil. The adoption of a process-based model was necessary due to the lack of long-term observed data. Our goals were to calibrate the WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) model for different land uses under subtropical conditions in the Cerrado biome; predict runoff and soil erosion for these different land uses; and simulate runoff and soil erosion considering climate change. We performed the model calibration using a 5-year dataset (2012-2016) of observed runoff and soil loss in four different land uses (wooded Cerrado, tilled fallow without plant cover, pasture, and sugarcane) in experimental plots. Selected soil and management parameters were optimized for each land use during the WEPP model calibration with the existing field data. The simulations were conducted using the calibrated WEPP model components with a 100-year climate dataset created with CLIGEN (weather generator) based on regional climate statistics. We obtained downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections, and runoff and soil loss were predicted with WEPP using future climate scenarios for 2030, 2060, and 2090 considering different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The WEPP model had an acceptable performance for the subtropical conditions. Land use can influence runoff and soil loss rates in a significant way. Potential climate changes, which indicate the increase of rainfall intensities and depths, may increase the variability and rates of runoff and soil erosion. However, projected climate changes did not significantly affect the runoff and soil erosion for the four analyzed land uses at our location. Finally, the runoff behavior was distinct for each land use, but for soil loss we found similarities between pasture and wooded Cerrado, suggesting that the soil may attain a sustainable level when the land management follows conservation principles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

PubMed Central

Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

2009-01-01

Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions. PMID:19558717

Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and services (e.g. climate projections and maps) for coastal stakeholders. The final results include climate products developed by climate experts through the analysis of climate observations and scenarios (e.g. standard indices of extreme precipitations and droughts, consecutive days of heavy rain, mean sea level pressure) and risk-based maps supplied by environmental risk experts to facilitate the definition of adaptation strategies (e.g. sea-level rise/storm surge risk maps with the surface of receptor lost; drought risk maps with the percentage of suffering agricultural areas). The preliminary climate products and the results of North Adriatic case study will be here presented and discussed.

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

Providing a Scientific Foundation in Climate Studies for Non-Science Majors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Moran, J. M.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Lambert, J.; Blair, B. A.; Hopkins, E. J.; O'Neill, K. L.; Hyre, H. R.; Nugnes, K. A.; Moses, M. N.

2010-12-01

Climate change has become a politically charged topic, creating the necessity for a scientifically literate population. Therefore, the American Meteorological Society (AMS), in partnership with NASA, has produced an introductory level, climate science course that engages students, allows for course flexibility, and boosts scientific knowledge about climate. This course shares NASA’s goal of observing, understanding, and modeling the Earth system, to discover how it is changing, to better predict change, and to understand the consequences for life. In Spring 2010, AMS Climate Studies was piloted to determine the most effective method to foster an understanding of some of the more difficult concepts of climate science. This study was offered as part of the NASA grant. This presentation will report the results of that study. Faculty and students from fourteen colleges and universities throughout the country evaluated the course using pre- and post-test questions, which included multiple choice and short answer questions, weekly course content evaluations, and an extensive post-course evaluation. The large majority of participating teachers rated the overall course, scientific content, internet delivery, and study materials as ‘good’, the most positive response available. Feedback from faculty members as well as suggestions from NASA reviewers were used to enhance the final version of the textbook and Investigations Manual for the Fall 2010 academic semester. Following the proven course work of AMS Weather and AMS Ocean Studies, AMS Climate Studies is a turnkey package utilizing both printed and online materials. It covers topics such as the water in Earth’s climate system, paleoclimates, along with climate change and public policy. The Investigations include 30 complimentary lab-style activities including the Conceptual Energy Model, which explores the flow of energy from space to Earth. Additionally, the course website features Current Climate Studies where students use real-world data and up-to-the-minute information regarding recent climate events. AMS Climate Studies can be presented in traditional, online, or blended environments, as best suites the instructor, student, and institution. By exploring the Earth’s climate as part of a larger Earth system, AMS Climate Studies will serve as a great primer in preparing students to become responsible, scientifically-literate participants in discussions of climate science and climate change. It maintains a strong focus on the fundamental science while still addressing many of the societal impacts that draw the attention of today’s students. AMS Climate Studies is available for full implementation at institutions nationwide.

Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explainsscenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Miller, Brian; Cross, Molly; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

2017-12-01

Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface water and energy balances, highlighting the need to incorporate human activities such as irrigation into the framework of global climate models and Earth system models for better prediction of future changes under increasing human influence and continuing global climate change.

Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau's Concord: a community perspective.

PubMed

Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Primack, Richard B

2008-02-01

As a result of climate change, many plants are now flowering measurably earlier than they did in the past. However, some species' flowering times have changed much more than others. Data at the community level can clarify the variation in flowering responses to climate change. In order to determine how North American species' flowering times respond to climate, we analyzed a series of previously unstudied records of the dates of first flowering for over 500 plant taxa in Concord, Massachusetts, USA. These records began with six years of observations by the famous naturalist Henry David Thoreau from 1852 to 1858, continued with 16 years of observations by the botanist Alfred Hosmer in 1878 and 1888-1902, and concluded with our own observations in 2004, 2005, and 2006. From 1852 through 2006, Concord warmed by 2.4 degrees C due to global climate change and urbanization. Using a subset of 43 common species, we determined that plants are now flowering seven days earlier on average than they did in Thoreau's times. Plant flowering times were most correlated with mean temperatures in the one or two months just before flowering and were also correlated with January temperatures. Summer-flowering species showed more interannual variation in flowering time than did spring-flowering species, but the flowering times of spring-flowering species correlated more strongly to mean monthly temperatures. In many cases, such as within the genera Betula and Solidago, closely related, co-occurring species responded to climate very differently from one another. The differences in flowering responses to warming could affect relationships in plant communities as warming continues. Common St. John's wort (Hypericum perforatum) and highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) are particularly responsive to changes in climate, are common across much of the United States, and could serve as indicators of biological responses to climate change. We discuss the need for researchers to be aware, when using data sets involving multiple observers, of how varying methodologies, sample sizes, and sampling intensities affect the results. Finally, we emphasize the importance of using historical observations, like those of Thoreau and Hosmer, as sources of long-term data and to increase public awareness of biological responses to climate change.

Assessing changes in drought characteristics with standardized indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Najac, Julien; Martin, Eric; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2010-05-01

Standardized drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are more and more frequently adopted for drought reconstruction, monitoring and forecasting, and the SPI has been recently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to characterize meteorological droughts. Such indices are based on the statistical distribution of a hydrometeorological variable (e.g., precipitation) in a given reference climate, and a drought event is defined as a period with continuously negative index values. Because of the way these indices are constructed, some issues may arise when using them in a non-stationnary climate. This work thus aims at highlighting such issues and demonstrating the different ways these indices may - or may not - be applied and interpreted in the context of an anthropogenic climate change. Three major points are detailed through examples taken from both a high-resolution gridded reanalysis dataset over France and transient projections from the ARPEGE general circulation model downscaled over France. The first point deals with the choice of the reference climate, and more specifically its type (from observations/reanalysis or from present-day modelled climate) and its record period. Second, the interpretation of actual changes are closely linked with the type of the selected drought feature over a future period: mean index value, under-threshold frequency, or drought event characteristics (number, mean duration and magnitude, seasonality, etc.). Finally, applicable approaches as well as related uncertainties depend on the availability of data from a future climate, whether in the form of a fully transient time series from present-day or only a future time slice. The projected evolution of drought characteristics under climate change must inform present decisions on long-term water resources planning. An assessment of changes in drought characteristics should therefore provide water managers with appropriate information that can help building effective adaptation strategies. This work thus aims at showing the potential of standardized indices to describe changes in drought characteristics, but also possible pitfalls and potentially misleading interpretations.

Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Anderson, Kurt E; Akçakaya, H Resit; Mizerek, Toni; Winchell, Clark; Regan, Helen M

2014-08-01

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutz, Sebastian G.; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Lohmann, Gerrit; Stepanek, Christian; Li, Jingmin

2018-04-01

The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ˜ 3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ˜ 21 ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ˜ 6 ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ˜ 3 Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, K.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Sebastian, A.; Singh, R.; Arrighi, J.; Otto, F. E. L.; Haustein, K.; Li, S.; Vecchi, G.; Cullen, H. M.

2017-12-01

During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation over Houston and the surrounding area, particularly on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. Using observational datasets and high-resolution global climate model experiments we investigate the return period of this event and to what extent anthropogenic climate change influenced the likelihood and intensity of this type of events. The event definition for the attribution is set by the main impact, flooding in the city of Houston. Most rivers crested on August 28 or 29, driven by intensive rainfall on August 26-28. We therefore use the annual maximum of three-day average precipitation as the event definition. Station data (GHCN-D) and a gridded precipitation product (CPC unified analysis) are used to find the return period of the event and changes in the observed record. To attribute changes to anthropogenic climate change we use time-slice experiments from two high-resolution global climate models (EC-Earth 2.3 and GFDL HiFLOR, both integrated at approximately 25 km). A regional model (HadRM3P) was rejected because of unrealistic modelled extremes. Finally we put the attribution results in context, given local vulnerability and exposure.

HYDROLOGY-BIOGEOCHEMISTRY MODEL FOR INVESTIGATING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND TIMBER HARVEST ON WATERSHEDS. (R824803)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

REGENERATION IN GAP MODELS: PRIORITY ISSUES FOR STUDYING FOREST RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE. (R828785)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC POTENTIAL AS PROJECTED BY GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. (R824802)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Forecasted range shifts of arid-land fishes in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitney, James E.; Whittier, Joanna B.; Paukert, Craig P.; Olden, Julian D.; Strecker, Angela L.

2017-01-01

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according to fish traits. We examined relationships among traits and range shift metrics either singly using univariate linear modeling or combined with multivariate redundancy analysis. We found that trophic and dispersal traits were associated with shifts at the leading and trailing edges, respectively, although projected range shifts were largely unexplained by traits. As expected, piscivores and omnivores with broader diets shifted upslope most at the leading edge while more specialized invertivores exhibited minimal changes. Fishes that were more mobile shifted upslope most at the trailing edge, defying predictions. No traits explained changes in range center or size. Finally, current preference explained multivariate range shifts, as fishes with faster current preferences exhibited smaller multivariate changes. Although range shifts were largely unexplained by traits, more specialized invertivorous fishes with lower dispersal propensity or greater current preference may require the greatest conservation efforts because of their limited capacity to shift ranges under climate change.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haywood, Alan; Dowsett, Harry; Dolan, Aisling; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark; Hunter, Stephen; Lunt, Daniel; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate, and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilised for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilise state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land/ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

USGCRP's Sustained Assessment Process: Progress to date and future plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeAngelo, B. J.; Reidmiller, D.; Lipschultz, F.; Cloyd, E. T.

2016-12-01

One of the four main objectives of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) Strategic Plan is to "Conduct Sustained Assessments", which seeks to build a process that synthesizes and advances the state of scientific knowledge on global change, develops future scenarios and potential impacts, and evaluates how effectively science is being and can be used to inform and support the Nation's response to climate change. To do so, USGCRP strives to establish a standing capacity to conduct national climate assessments with sectoral and regional information to evaluate climate risks and opportunities, and to inform decision-making, especially with regard to resiliency planning and adaptation measures. Building on the success of the 3rd National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2014), we discuss the range of USGCRP activities that embody the sustained assessment concept. Special reports, such as the recent Climate and Human Health Assessment and upcoming Climate Science Special Report, fill gaps in our understanding and provide crucial building blocks for next NCA report (NCA4). To facilitate the use of consistent assumptions across NCA4, new scenario products for climate, population, and land use will be made available through initiatives such as NOAA's Climate Resilience Toolkit. NCA4 will be informed by user engagement to advance the customization of knowledge. The report will strive to advance our ability to quantify various risks, monetize certain impacts, and communicate the benefits (i.e., avoided impacts) of various mitigation pathways. NCAnet (a national network of climate-interested stakeholders) continues to grow and foster collaborations across levels of governance and within civil society. Finally, USGCRP continues to actively engage with other assessment processes, at international, state, city, and tribal levels, to exchange ideas and to facilitate the potential for "linked" assessments across spatial scales.

The last Deglaciation in the Mediterranean region: a multi-archives synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazin, Lucie; Siani, Giuseppe; Landais, Amaelle; Bassinot, Frank; Genty, Dominique; Govin, Aline; Michel, Elisabeth; Nomade, Sebastien; Waelbroeck, Claire

2016-04-01

Multiple proxies record past climatic changes in different climate archives. These proxies are influenced by different component of the climate system and bring complementary information on past climate variability. The major limitation when combining proxies from different archives comes from the coherency of their chronologies. Indeed, each climate archives possess their own dating methods, not necessarily coherent with each other's. Consequently, when we want to assess the latitudinal changes and mechanisms behind a climate event, we often have to rely on assumptions of synchronisation between the different archives, such as synchronous temperature changes during warming events (Austin and Hibbert 2010). Recently, a dating method originally developed to produce coherent chronologies for ice cores (Datice,Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) has been adapted in order to integrate different climate archives (ice cores, sediment cores and speleothems (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2015, Bazin et al., in prep)). In this presentation we present the validation of this multi-archives dating tool with a first application covering the last Deglaciation in the Mediterranean region. For this experiment, we consider the records from Monticchio, the MD90-917, Tenaghi Philippon and Lake Orhid sediment cores as well as continuous speleothems from Sofular, Soreq and La Mine caves. Using the Datice dating tool, and with the identification of common tephra layers between the cores considered, we are able to produce a multi-archives coherent chronology for this region, independently of any climatic assumption. Using this common chronological framework, we show that the usual climatic synchronisation assumptions are not valid over this region for the last glacial-interglacial transition. Finally, we compare our coherent Mediterranean chronology with Greenland ice core records in order to discuss the sequence of events of the last Deglaciation between these two regions.

Definition and preliminary design of the LAWS (Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder), volume 2, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

Accurate knowledge of winds is critical to our understanding of the earth's climate and to our ability to predict climate change. Winds are a fundamental component of highly nonlinear interactions between oceans, land surfaces, and the atmosphere. Interactions at these interfaces are the focus of much climate change research. Although wind information is critical for advancing our understanding, currently most of our description of atmospheric motion is obtained indirectly - i.e., derived from observations of temperature and moisture through geostrophic relationships. Direct measurement of winds over the globe is limited to land-based rawinsonde surface stations and a few ship/aircraft reports. Cloud track winds using satellite imagery are calculated but must be used with great care. The LAWS mission objective, therefore, is to provide diurnal and global direct observations of winds - an observation that will incrementally enhance our knowledge of the earth's climate and physical processes responsible for its change. This document is Volume 2 of the LAWS Phase 2 Final Study Report and describes the definition and preliminary design of the LAWS instrument, together with details of the laser breadboard program conducted during the last 18 months of the program.

Can metric-based approaches really improve multi-model climate projections? A perfect model framework applied to summer temperature change in France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boé, Julien; Terray, Laurent

2014-05-01

Ensemble approaches for climate change projections have become ubiquitous. Because of large model-to-model variations and, generally, lack of rationale for the choice of a particular climate model against others, it is widely accepted that future climate change and its impacts should not be estimated based on a single climate model. Generally, as a default approach, the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) is considered to provide the best estimate of climate change signals. The MMEM approach is based on the implicit hypothesis that all the models provide equally credible projections of future climate change. This hypothesis is unlikely to be true and ideally one would want to give more weight to more realistic models. A major issue with this alternative approach lies in the assessment of the relative credibility of future climate projections from different climate models, as they can only be evaluated against present-day observations: which present-day metric(s) should be used to decide which models are "good" and which models are "bad" in the future climate? Once a supposedly informative metric has been found, other issues arise. What is the best statistical method to combine multiple models results taking into account their relative credibility measured by a given metric? How to be sure in the end that the metric-based estimate of future climate change is not in fact less realistic than the MMEM? It is impossible to provide strict answers to those questions in the climate change context. Yet, in this presentation, we propose a methodological approach based on a perfect model framework that could bring some useful elements of answer to the questions previously mentioned. The basic idea is to take a random climate model in the ensemble and treat it as if it were the truth (results of this model, in both past and future climate, are called "synthetic observations"). Then, all the other members from the multi-model ensemble are used to derive thanks to a metric-based approach a posterior estimate of climate change, based on the synthetic observation of the metric. Finally, it is possible to compare the posterior estimate to the synthetic observation of future climate change to evaluate the skill of the method. The main objective of this presentation is to describe and apply this perfect model framework to test different methodological issues associated with non-uniform model weighting and similar metric-based approaches. The methodology presented is general, but will be applied to the specific case of summer temperature change in France, for which previous works have suggested potentially useful metrics associated with soil-atmosphere and cloud-temperature interactions. The relative performances of different simple statistical approaches to combine multiple model results based on metrics will be tested. The impact of ensemble size, observational errors, internal variability, and model similarity will be characterized. The potential improvements associated with metric-based approaches compared to the MMEM is terms of errors and uncertainties will be quantified.

Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobanova, Anastasia; Liersch, Stefan; Tàbara, J. David; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

2017-05-01

Conventional water management strategies, that serve solely socio-economic demands and neglect changing natural conditions of the river basins, face significant challenges in governing complex human-hydrological systems, especially in the areas with constrained water availability. In this study we assess the possibility to harmonize the inter-sectoral water allocation scheme within a highly altered human-hydrological system under reduction in water availability, triggered by projected climate change applying scenario-based approach. The Tagus River Basin headwaters, with significant disproportion in the water resources allocation between the environmental and socio-economic targets were taken as a perfect example of such system out of balance. We propose three different water allocation strategies for this region, including two conventional schemes and one imposing shift to sustainable water management and environmental restoration of the river. We combine in one integrated modelling framework the eco-hydrological process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), coupled with the conceptual reservoir and water allocation modules driven by the latest bias-corrected climate projections for the region and investigate possible water allocation scenarios in the region under constrained water availability in the future. Our results show that the socio-economic demands have to be re-considered and lowered under any water allocation strategy, as the climate impacts may significantly reduce water availability in the future. Further, we show that a shift to sustainable water management strategy and river restoration is possible even under reduced water availability. Finally, our results suggest that the adaptation of complex human-hydrological systems to climate change and a shift to a more sustainable water management are likely to be parts of one joint strategy to cope with climate change impacts.

Projected impact of climate change in the hydroclimatology of Senegal with a focus over the Lake of Guiers for the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tall, Moustapha; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Diallo, Ismaïla; Pal, Jeremy S.; Faye, Aïssatou; Mbaye, Mamadou Lamine; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

2017-07-01

This study analyzes the impact of anthropogenic climate change in the hydroclimatology of Senegal with a focus over the lake of Guiers basin for the middle (2041-2060) and late twenty-first century (2080-2099). To this end, high-resolution multimodel ensemble based on regional climate model experiments considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is used. The results indicate that an elevated warming, leading to substantial increase of atmospheric water demand, is projected over the whole of Senegal. In the Lake basin, these increases in potential evapotranspiration (PE) range between 10 and 25 % in the near future and for RCP4.5 while for the far future and RCP8.5, they exceed 50 %. In addition, mean precipitation unveils contrasting changes with wetter (10 to 25 % more) conditions by the middle of the century and drier conditions (more than 50 %) during the late twenty-first century. Such changes cause more/less evapotranspiration and soil moisture respectively during the two future periods. Furthermore, surface runoff shows a tendency to increase in most areas amid few locations including the Lake basin with substantial reduction. Finally, it is found that while semi-arid climates develop in the RCP4.5 scenario, generalized arid conditions prevail over the whole Senegal for RCP8.5. It is thus evident that these future climate conditions substantially threaten freshwater availability for the country and irrigated cropping over the Lake basin. Therefore, strong governmental politics are needed to help design response options to cope with the challenges posed by the projected climate change for the country.

The role of land-climate interactions for the regional amplification of temperature extremes in climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Vogel, M.; Zscheischler, J.; Schwingshackl, C.; Davin, E.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hauser, M.; Hirsch, A.; Hirschi, M.; Humphrey, V.; Thiery, W.

2017-12-01

Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than the global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level (Seneviratne et al. 2016). This presentation will highlight the processes underlying this behavior, which is strongly related to land-climate feedbacks (Vogel et al. 2017). The identified feedbacks are also affecting the occurrence probability of compound drought and heat events (Zscheischler and Seneviratne 2017), with high relevance for impacts on forest fire and agriculture production. Moreover, the responsible land processes strongly contribute to the inter-model spread in the projections, and can thus be used to derive observations-based constraints to reduce the uncertainty of projected changes in climate extremes. Finally, we will also discuss the role of soil moisture effects on carbon uptake and their relevance for projections, as well as the role of land use changes in affecting the identified feedbacks and projected changes in climate extremes. References: Seneviratne, S.I., M. Donat, A.J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R.L. Wilby, 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., R. Orth, F. Cheruy, S. Hagemann, R. Lorenz, B.J.J.M. Hurk, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519, doi:10.1002/2016GL071235. Zscheischler, J., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events. Science Advances, 3(6), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263

Unleashing Expert Judgment in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, P. T.; Mach, K. J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.

2016-12-01

IPCC assessments are critical vehicles for evaluating and synthesizing existing knowledge about climate change, its impacts, and potential options for adaptation and mitigation. In these assessments, rigorous expert judgment is essential for characterizing current scientific understanding including persistent and complex uncertainties related to climate change. Over its history the IPCC has iteratively developed frameworks for evaluating and communicating what is known and what is not known about climate change science. In this presentation, we explore advances and challenges in approaches to evaluating and communicating expert judgment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). We present an analysis of the frequency of the use of calibrated degree-of-certainty terms in the policymaker summaries from the IPCC's AR5 and Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We find that revised guidance for IPCC author teams in the AR5 improved the development of balanced judgments on scientific evidence across disciplines. Overall, degree-of-certainty terms are more abundant in the AR5 policymaker summaries compared to those of the AR4, demonstrating an increased commitment to extensively and transparently characterizing expert judgments underpinning report conclusions. This analysis also shows that while working groups still favor different degree-of-certainty scales in the AR5, authors employed a wider array of degree-of-certainty scales to communicate expert judgment supporting report findings compared to the policymaker summaries of the AR4. Finally, our analysis reveals greater inclusion of lower-certainty findings in the AR5 as compared to the AR4, critical for communicating a fuller range of possible climate change impacts and response options. Building on our findings we propose a simpler, more transparent, and more rigorous framework for developing and communicating expert judgments in future climate and environmental assessments.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE PAGES

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; ...

2017-06-27

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

2017-04-01

The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Integrated modeling of land-use change: the role of coupling, interactions and feedbacks between the human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ejaz, Q.; Winchester, N.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

2016-12-01

Land-use change integrates a large number of components of the human and Earth systems, including climate, energy, water, and land. These complex coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks take place on a variety of space and time scales, thus increasing the complexity of land-use change modeling frameworks. In this study, we aim to identify which coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks are important for modeling land-use change, both at the global and regional level. First, we review the existing land-use change modeling framework used to develop land-use change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In such framework, land-use change is simulated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and mainly influenced by economic, energy, demographic and policy drivers. IAMs focus on representing the demand for agriculture and forestry goods (crops for food and bioenergy, forest products for construction and bioenergy), the interactions with other sectors of the economy and trade between various regions of the world. Then, we investigate how important various coupling elements and feedbacks with the Earth system are for projections of land-use change at the global and regional level. We focus on the following: i) the climate impacts on land productivity and greenhouse gas emissions, which requires climate change information and coupling to a terrestrial ecosystem model/crop model; ii) the climate and economic impacts on irrigation availability, which requires coupling the LUC modeling framework to a water resources management model and disaggregating rainfed and irrigated croplands; iii) the feedback of land-use change on the global and regional climate system through land-use change emissions and changes in the surface albedo and hydrology, which requires coupling to an Earth system model. Finally, we conclude our study by highlighting the current lack of clarity in how various components of the human and Earth systems are coupled in IAMs , and the need for a lexicon that is agreed upon by the IAM community.

Climate Generation: Advancing Climate Action through Education, Public Engagement and Youth Leadership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppleton, K. L. I.

2017-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy empowers youth, educators, decision-makers and the public to foster climate literacy and action with the goal of building a more equitable and resilient future. We have over eleven years of experience delivering high-quality K-12 education, public engagement and youth leadership programming, reaching over 75,000 people, 35,000 students and 17,000 educators since 2006. By engaging educators, youth, and the public, we believe that communities can be better positioned to build a resilient and equitable future. For this reason we strive to engage with all these sectors through innovative programming and policy initiatives. Communities are resilient when individuals are connected to each other, resources, and decision-makers. Sharing personal narratives, and highlighting locally relevant solutions are all tools that Climate Generation employs to engage the public. We do this through community wide convenings, as well as sector specific events including at breweries, art fairs, and businesses. Education is also an integral piece for sustained action on climate change. We support educators with a science-based, interdisciplinary model of climate change education that engages all learners, and fosters climate literacy and action. We develop curriculum and offer professional development, encouraging teachers to develop today's students into action-competent citizens. Finally, Climate Generation recognizes the importance of empowering high school youth as a key strategy in transitioning to a just and sustainable future for all. We believe in the inherent genius of youth and know from experience that mentorship fosters powerful youth leadership at the community level, inspiring peers, family members, and local decision-makers to take critical action on climate change solutions. In order to accelerate and implement action on climate change we must take a multi-faceted approach: we are building public will for strong climate action at the local and state level; preparing educators and their students to understand the problem and implement clean energy solutions; and pushing our decision-makers to do the right thing via pressure from their constituents, including youth, who can effectively articulate equitable policy solutions and hold officials accountable.

Using Four Downscaling Techniques to Characterize Uncertainty in Updating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, L. M.; Samaras, C.; McGinnis, S. A.

2017-12-01

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are a common input to urban drainage design, and are used to represent extreme rainfall in a region. As rainfall patterns shift into a non-stationary regime as a result of climate change, these curves will need to be updated with future projections of extreme precipitation. Many regions have begun to update these curves to reflect the trends from downscaled climate models; however, few studies have compared the methods for doing so, as well as the uncertainty that results from the selection of the native grid scale and temporal resolution of the climate model. This study examines the variability in updated IDF curves for Pittsburgh using four different methods for adjusting gridded regional climate model (RCM) outputs into station scale precipitation extremes: (1) a simple change factor applied to observed return levels, (2) a naïve adjustment of stationary and non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters, (3) a transfer function of the GEV parameters from the annual maximum series, and (4) kernel density distribution mapping bias correction of the RCM time series. Return level estimates (rainfall intensities) and confidence intervals from these methods for the 1-hour to 48-hour duration are tested for sensitivity to the underlying spatial and temporal resolution of the climate ensemble from the NA-CORDEX project, as well as, the future time period for updating. The first goal is to determine if uncertainty is highest for: (i) the downscaling method, (ii) the climate model resolution, (iii) the climate model simulation, (iv) the GEV parameters, or (v) the future time period examined. Initial results of the 6-hour, 10-year return level adjusted with the simple change factor method using four climate model simulations of two different spatial resolutions show that uncertainty is highest in the estimation of the GEV parameters. The second goal is to determine if complex downscaling methods and high-resolution climate models are necessary for updating, or if simpler methods and lower resolution climate models will suffice. The final results can be used to inform the most appropriate method and climate model resolutions to use for updating IDF curves for urban drainage design.

Understanding the climate-included variations in the seasonal water demands of irrigated crops in Northern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattarai, N.; Jain, M.

2016-12-01

Expected changes in temperature and precipitation patterns in the rice-wheat belt of Northern India have implications for balancing crop water demand and available water resources. Because the impacts of water scarcity and reduced crop production are realized at a local scale, water-saving interventions are most effective when implemented locally. However, a paucity of fine-scale studies on the relationship between variations in climate and crop water demand has limited our ability to effectively implement such interventions. In an effort to better understand the responses of irrigated crops to changing climate in Northern India at finer-scales, we propose a remote sensing based semi-empirical approach. First, we employ a multi-model surface energy balance (SEB) approach to map seasonal evapotranspiration (ET)/water use (1995-2015) at 30 to 100 m resolution from space and investigate how seasonal and inter-annual variations in temperature and precipitation are associated with regional surface-energy budgets. Second, using remote estimates of ET and other biophysical variables, such as vegetation indices, land surface temperature, and albedo, we will explain the possible relationships between climate change and seasonal water demands of crops. Our estimates of high/moderate resolution (30 to 100 m) seasonal ET maps can make clear distinctions between impacts of climate variations on crop water demand at field, plot, and regional scales in Northern India. Finally, by improving our ability to identify targeted area for water-saving interventions, this study supports agricultural resiliency of Northern India in the face of climate change.

Effects of climate change on hydrology and hydraulics of Qu River Basin, East China.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C.; Zhu, Q.; Zhao, Z.; Pan, S.; Xu, Y. P.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate change on regional hydrological extreme events have attracted much attention in recent years. This paper aims to provide a general overview of changes on future runoffs and water levels in the Qu River Basin, upper reaches of Qiantang River, East China by combining future climate scenarios, hydrological model and 1D hydraulic model. The outputs of four GCMs BCC, BNU, CanESM and CSIRO under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2021-2050 are chosen to represent future climate change projections. The LARS-WG statistical downscaling method is used to downscale the coarse GCM outputs and generate 50 years of synthetic precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to drive the GR4J hydrological model and the 1D hydraulic model for the baseline period 1971-2000 and the future period 2021-2050. Finally the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) method is applied to analyze the change of extreme events in the study area. The results show that design runoffs and water levels all indicate an increasing trend in the future period for Changshangang River, Jiangshangang River and Qu River at most cases, especially for small return periods(≤20), and for Qu River the increase becomes larger, which suggests that the risk of flooding will probably become greater and appropriate adaptation measures need to be taken.

Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina-Perez, Edmundo

It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty: climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

Using ground- and satellite-based measurements and models to quantify response to multiple disturbances and climate change in South African semi-arid ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falge, Eva; Brümmer, Christian; Schmullius, Christiane; Scholes, Robert; Twine, Wayne; Mudau, Azwitamisi; Midgley, Guy; Hickler, Thomas; Bradshaw, Karen; Lück, Wolfgang; Thiel-Clemen, Thomas; du Toit, Justin; Sankaran, Vaith; Kutsch, Werner

2016-04-01

Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences significant changes in shrubland, savanna and mixed woodland ecosystems driving degradation, affecting fire frequency and water availability, and eventually fueling climate change. The project 'Adaptive Resilience of Southern African Ecosystems' (ARS AfricaE) conducts research and develops scenarios of ecosystem development under climate change, for management support in conservation or for planning rural area development. For a network of research clusters along an aridity gradient in South Africa, we measure greenhouse gas exchange, ecosystem structure and eco-physiological properties as affected by land use change at paired sites with natural and altered vegetation. We set up dynamic vegetation models and individual-based models to predict ecosystem dynamics under (post) disturbance managements. We monitor vegetation amount and heterogeneity using remotely sensed images and aerial photography over several decades to examine time series of land cover change. Finally, we investigate livelihood strategies with focus on carbon balance components to develop sustainable management strategies for disturbed ecosystems and land use change. Emphasis is given on validation of estimates obtained from eddy covariance, model approaches and satellite derivations. We envision our methodological approach on a network of research clusters a valuable means to investigate potential linkages to concepts of adaptive resilience.

Variations of the paleo-productivity in benthic foraminifera records in MIS 3 from western South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Y.; Du, J.; Huang, B.; Chen, M.

2010-12-01

Understanding climate change of last glacial age as the background information of climate forecasting is particularly important in climate research. Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 61-24 ka B.P.) is a relative warm and unstable period in the last glacial. Millennium scale abrupt climate changes, such as Heinrich events and Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles, are identified in this period. Research topic on the variations of monsoon during the glacial cycles, especially in MIS 3, is critical for understanding low latitude climatic change and the global paleo-environment as a whole. Fortunately, high resolution sedimentary records in western South China Sea provide us valuable materials to uncover how East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) system acts in a highly fluctuating climate ambient like MIS 3. Core 17954 is located in the modern summer upwelling area off the Vietnam coast in western South China Sea (SCS), its sediments record the variations of upwelling generated by EASM. In this work, we carry out paleo-ecological analyses on planktonic ( Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Globigerina bulloides) and benthic foraminifera (Bulimina aculeate, Uvigerina peregrina, Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi, ect.) sampled from Core 17954 to investigate paleo-productivity and nutrition change of western SCS and its relation to EASM. The results show that benthic and planktonic foraminifera have similar responses to nutrition change. Various indicators of productivity on the basis of benthic foraminiferal analyses reflect an overall three stage change trend: productivity gradually increases from the beginning of MIS 3 (60-40 ka) to its maximum during 35-30 ka, and finally declines after 30 ka. There is also another important discovery, if we observe the climate change in MIS 3 as a whole, we can also find western SCS and Northern Hemisphere High latitude have strong correspondences in such changes: Heinrich events coincided with high productivity events in the western SCS. Further, the result of this study also support precious study’s conclusion of five strengthened EASM periods (referred as S1-5) because productivity inferred form benthic foraminiferal analysis during these periods are relative high.

Effects of climate change on aerosol concentrations in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Megaritis, Athanasios G.; Fountoukis, Christos; Pandis, Spyros N.

2013-04-01

High concentrations of particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in size (PM2.5), ozone and other major constituents of air pollution, have adverse effects on human health, visibility and ecosystems (Seinfeld and Pandis, 2006), and are strongly influenced by meteorology. Emissions control policy is currently made assuming that climate will remain constant in the future. However, climate change over the next decades is expected to be significant (IPCC, 2007) and may impact local and regional air quality. Determining the sensitivity of the concentrations of air pollutants to climate change is an important step toward estimating future air quality. In this study we applied PMCAMx (Fountoukis et al., 2011), a three dimensional chemical transport model, over Europe, in order to quantify the individual effects of various meteorological parameters on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. A suite of perturbations in various meteorological factors, such as temperature, wind speed, absolute humidity and precipitation were imposed separately on base case conditions to determine the sensitivities of PM2.5 concentrations and composition to these parameters. Different simulation periods (summer, autumn 2008 and winter 2009) are used to examine also the seasonal dependence of the air quality - climate interactions. The results of these sensitivity simulations suggest that there is an important link between changes in meteorology and PM2.5 levels. We quantify through separate sensitivity simulations the processes which are mainly responsible for the final predicted changes in PM2.5 concentration and composition. The predicted PM2.5 response to those meteorology perturbations was found to be quite variable in space and time. These results suggest that, the changes in concentrations caused by changes in climate should be taken into account in long-term air quality planning. References Fountoukis C., Racherla P. N., Denier van der Gon H. A. C., Polymeneas P., Charalampidis P. E., Pilinis C., Wiedensohler A., Dall'Osto M., O'Dowd C., and S. N. Pandis: Evaluation of a three-dimensional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) in the European domain during the EUCAARI May 2008 campaign, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 10331-10347, 2011. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report: Summary for Policymakers, 2007. Seinfeld, J. H., and Pandis, S. N.: Atmospheric chemistry and physics: From air pollution to climate change, 2nd ed.; John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ, 2006.

Assessment of Spatio-temporal Barren-lands Expansion and Agricultural Adaptation due to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity: A Geospatial Approach in Hot Semi-arid Region of Maharashtra State, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, A.; Inamdar, A. B.

2017-12-01

Major parts of Upper Godavari River Basin are intensely drought prone and climate vulnerable in Maharashtra State, India. The economy of the state depends on the agronomic productivity of this region. So, it is necessary to monitor and regulate the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on agricultural land in that region. This study investigates and maps the barren-lands and alteration of agricultural lands, their decadal deviations with the multi-temporal LANDSAT satellite images; and finally quantifies the agricultural adaptations. This work involves the utilization of remote sensing and GIS tools and modeling. First, climatic trend analysis is carried out with dataset obtained from India Meteorological Department. Then, multi-temporal LANDSAT images are classified (Level I, hybrid classification technique are followed) to determine the decadal Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes and correlated with the agricultural water demand. Finally, various LANDSAT band analysis is conducted to determine irrigated and non-irrigated cropping area estimation and identifying the agricultural adaptations. The analysis of LANDSAT images shows that barren-lands are most increased class during the study period. The overall spatial extent of barren-lands are increased drastically during the study period. The geospatial study (class-to-class conversion study) shows that, most of the conversion of the barren-lands are from the agricultural land and reserve or open forests. The barren-lands are constantly increasing and the agricultural land is linearly decreasing. Hence, there is an inverse correlation between barren-lands and agricultural land. Moreover, there is a shift to non-irrigated and less water demanding crops, from more water demanding crops, which is a noticeable adaptation. The surface-water availability is highly dependent on rainfall and/or climatic conditions. It is changing either way in a random fashion based upon the quantity of rainfall occurred in near preceding years. The agricultural lands are densely replenished around the dams and natural water bodies which serve as the water supply stations for the irrigation purposes. Hence, the study shows there are alteration in LULC, agricultural practices and surface-water availability and expansion of barren-lands.

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON ALPINE TUNDRA ECOSYSTEMS IN THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO. (R827449)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Military Potential Test of the UH-2A Helicopter.

DTIC Science & Technology

1963-10-25

required to fully service two engines during engine change. 3. One quart of hydr aulic fluid , MIL 5606. Used to replace spillage while disconnecting...Maryland , dated 24 January 1963. 7. Report Nr. 1, Final Report, Climatic Laboratory Environ- mental Test of the Model UH- 2A Helicopter , by US

SIMULATION MODEL RESULTS OF LYME DISEASE INFECTIVITY RATES IN VERTEBRATE HOSTS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

SPATIAL TESTS OF THE PESTICIDE DRIFT, HABITAT DESTRUCTION, UV-B AND CLIMATE CHANGE HYPOTHESES FOR CALIFORNIA AMPHIBIAN DECLINES. (R825285)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

A Framework to Quantify the Strength of the Ecological Links Between an Environmental Stressor and Final Ecosystem Services

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic stressors such as climate change, fire, and pollution are driving shifts in ecosystem function and resilience. Scientists generally rely on biological indicators of these stressors to signal that ecosystem conditions have been altered beyond an acceptable amount. Ho...

Transportation System Vulnerability and Resilience to Extreme Weather Events and Other Natural Hazards : Final Results of Vulnerability Assessment of National Highway System for All KYTC Districts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-05-01

Recent federal legislation and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) have directed state transportation agencies to identify potential vulnerabilities associated with extreme weather events and climate change, develop a risk-based asset managemen...

Late Responders to Online Self-Report U.S. Air Force Occupational Health Screenings

DTIC Science & Technology

Health screening surveys play a key role in understanding military personnels perceived climate of their organization. These screenings provide...recorded after the final reminder email resulted in similar outcomes, and the extra week of data collection did not change results for either sample.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON ELK POPULATION DYNAMICS IN ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK, COLORADO, USA. (R827449)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

HYPERSALINE CYANOBACTERIAL MATS AS INDICATORS OF ELEVATED TROPICAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE CHANGE. (R828677C001)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Identification of the potential gap areas for the developing green infrastructure in the Urban area using High resolution satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanaparthi, M. B.

2017-12-01

In India urban population is growing day by day which is causing air pollution less air quality finally leading to climate change and global warming. To mitigate the effect of the climate change we need to plant more trees in the urban area. The objective of this study is develop a plan to improve the urban Green Infrastructure (GI) to fight against the climate change and global warming. Improving GI is a challenging and difficult task in the urban areas because land unavailability of land, to overcome the problem greenways is a good the solution. Greenway is a linear open space developed along the rivers, canals, roads in the urban areas to form a network of green spaces. Roads are the most common structures in the urban area. The idea is to develop the greenways alongside the road to connecting the different green spaces. Tree crowns will act as culverts to connect the green spaces. This will require the spatial structure of the green space, distribution of trees along the roads and the gap areas along the road where more trees can be planted. This can be achieved with help of high resolution Satellite Imagery and the object extraction techniques. This study was carried in the city Bhimavaram which is located in state Andhra Pradesh. The final outcome of this study is potential gap areas for planting trees in the city.

EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joseph H. Hartman

1999-09-01

This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join thesemore » various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern Great Plains, northern hemisphere, and elsewhere. Finally these data can be integrated into a history of climate change and predictive climate models. This is not a small undertaking. The goals of researchers and the methods used vary considerably. The primary task of this project was literature research to (1) evaluate existing methodologies used in geologic climate change studies and evidence for short-term cycles produced by these methodologies and (2) evaluate late Holocene climate patterns and their interpretations.« less

Outdoor occupational environments and heat stress in IRAN.

PubMed

Heidari, Hamidreza; Golbabaei, Farideh; Shamsipour, Aliakbar; Rahimi Forushani, Abbas; Gaeini, Abbasali

2015-01-01

The present study aimed at demonstrating the heat stress situation (distribution and intensity) based on a standard and common heat stress index, Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), during hot seasons and interpret the obtained results considering global warming and rising temperature in different parts of the country based on climate changes studied in Iran. Heat stress assessment was done using WBGT index. Environmental parameters were measured simultaneously in the early, middle and end of shift work. The personal parameters including cloth thermal insulation and metabolic rate of 242 participants from 9 climatic categories were recorded for estimating effective WBGT (measured WBGT plus cloth adjustment factor as well as metabolic rate effect). The values of the indicator were categorized in the statistical software media and then linked to the climatic zoning of the data in the GIS information layers, in which, WBGT values relating to selected stations were given generalization to similar climatic regionalization. The obtained results showed that in the summer about 60 % and more than 75 % of the measurements relating to 12 pm and 3 pm, respectively, were in heat stress situations (i.e. the average amount of heat stress index was higher than 28 °C). These values were found to be about 20-25 % in the spring. Moreover, only in the early hours of shift work in spring could safe conditions be seen throughout the country. This situation gradually decreased in the middle of the day hours and was replaced by the warning status and stress. And finally, in the final hours of shift work thermal stresses reached their peaks. These conditions for the summer were worse. Regarding several studies related to climate change in Iran and the results of present study, heat stress, especially in the central and southern parts of Iran, can be exacerbated in the decades to come if climate change and rising temperature occurs. Therefore, paying attention to this critical issue and adopting macro-management policies and programs in the field of workplace health is essential.

Impact of the Little Ice Age cooling and 20th century climate change on peatland vegetation dynamics in central and northern Alberta using a multi-proxy approach and high-resolution peat chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnan, Gabriel; van Bellen, Simon; Davies, Lauren; Froese, Duane; Garneau, Michelle; Mullan-Boudreau, Gillian; Zaccone, Claudio; Shotyk, William

2018-04-01

Northern boreal peatlands are major terrestrial sinks of organic carbon and these ecosystems, which are highly sensitive to human activities and climate change, act as sensitive archives of past environmental change at various timescales. This study aims at understanding how the climate changes of the last 1000 years have affected peatland vegetation dynamics in the boreal region of Alberta in western Canada. Peat cores were collected from five bogs in the Fort McMurray region (56-57° N), at the southern limit of sporadic permafrost, and two in central Alberta (53° N and 55° N) outside the present-day limit of permafrost peatlands. The past changes in vegetation communities were reconstructed using detailed plant macrofossil analyses combined with high-resolution peat chronologies (14C, atmospheric bomb-pulse 14C, 210Pb and cryptotephras). Peat humification proxies (C/N, H/C, bulk density) and records of pH and ash content were also used to improve the interpretation of climate-related vegetation changes. Our study shows important changes in peatland vegetation and physical and chemical peat properties during the Little Ice Age (LIA) cooling period mainly from around 1700 CE and the subsequent climate warming of the 20th century. In some bogs, the plant macrofossils have recorded periods of permafrost aggradation during the LIA with drier surface conditions, increased peat humification and high abundance of ericaceous shrubs and black spruce (Picea mariana). The subsequent permafrost thaw was characterized by a short-term shift towards wetter conditions (Sphagnum sect. Cuspidata) and a decline in Picea mariana. Finally, a shift to a dominance of Sphagnum sect. Acutifolia (mainly Sphagnum fuscum) occurred in all the bogs during the second half of the 20th century, indicating the establishment of dry ombrotrophic conditions under the recent warmer and drier climate conditions.

Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan.

PubMed

Awais, Muhammad; Wajid, Aftab; Saleem, Muhammad Farrukh; Nasim, Wajid; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Raza, Muhammad Aown Sammar; Bashir, Muhammad Usman; Mubeen, Muhammad; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Habib Ur Rahman, Muhammad; Saeed, Umer; Arshad, Muhammad Naveed; Hussain, Jamshad

2018-05-01

Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop's yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO 2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO 2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO 2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha -1 ) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.

The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China.

PubMed

Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Xun, Bin; Sun, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

2014-01-01

Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change.

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

In biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface— fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover are present.Though there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, in this paper we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrustmore » communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, these results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. Finally, this is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.« less

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

DOE PAGES

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-09-14

In biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface— fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover are present.Though there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, in this paper we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrustmore » communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, these results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. Finally, this is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.« less

A needs assessment for climate change education in the Great Lakes region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, S.; Schneider, L. B.; Walters, H.

2011-12-01

The National Science Foundation funded Great Lakes Climate Change Science and Education Systemic Network project is implementing a two year planning effort to create innovative education programs to benefit the public, formal and informal educators, scientists, and journalists in the region. The current partners include Eastern Michigan University, NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, University of Michigan, Michigan State University, Knight Center for Environmental Journalism, Ashland University, Ann Arbor Hands-On Museum, and the College of Exploration. To create a network we are planning to bring together different stakeholders to write two white papers, one from the scientists' perspective and the other from the educators'(both formal and informal) perspective. The current partners' key personnel have produced a list of possible people/institutions to include in a stakeholder survey. Some of the key personnel developed their databases from scratch. Some used listserves, and others tried a snowball email. To identify the best strategy that will inform these various stakeholders and the public regarding the science of climate change in the Great Lakes Region, a survey was developed for each of the different stakeholders. The survey is divided into three parts: 1) questions which convey some understanding of climate science and climate change 2) demographic questions, and finally 3) questions that pertain to the professional concerns or perspectives of the various stakeholders. This survey is being used to provide the project team with a "needs assessment" from the interested members of those stakeholders. The results from this process will be summarized.

Lessons learned from Applications of a Decision Tree for Confronting Climate Change Uncertainty - the Short Term and the Long Term

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Wi, S.; Bonzanigo, L.; Taner, M. U.; Rodriguez, D.; Garcia, L.; Brown, C.

2016-12-01

The Decision Tree for Confronting Climate Change Uncertainty is a hierarchical, staged framework for accomplishing climate change risk management in water resources system investments. Since its development for the World Bank Water Group two years ago, the framework has been applied to pilot demonstration projects in Nepal (hydropower generation), Mexico (water supply), Kenya (multipurpose reservoir operation), and Indonesia (flood risks to dam infrastructure). An important finding of the Decision Tree demonstration projects has been the need to present the risks/opportunities of climate change to stakeholders and investors in proportion to risks/opportunities and hazards of other kinds. This presentation will provide an overview of tools and techniques used to quantify risks/opportunities to each of the project types listed above, with special attention to those found most useful for exploration of the risk space. Careful exploration of the risk/opportunity space shows that some interventions would be better taken now, whereas risks/opportunities of other types would be better instituted incrementally in order to maintain reversibility and flexibility. A number of factors contribute to the robustness/flexibility tradeoff: available capital, magnitude and imminence of potential risk/opportunity, modular (or not) character of investment, and risk aversion of the decision maker, among others. Finally, in each case, nuance was required in the translation of Decision Tree findings into actionable policy recommendations. Though the narrative of stakeholder solicitation, engagement, and ultimate partnership is unique to each case, summary lessons are available from the portfolio that can serve as a guideline to the community of climate change risk managers.

[Farmer's perception and adaptation intention for climate change in high-cold eco-fragile region: A case of Gannan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Xue Yan; Xue, Bing

2016-07-01

In order to provide reference for formulating the effective policies of climate change, we selected Ganan Plateau located in the eastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the study area, and used the farmer's investigation data to analyze the impact of the farmers' perception of climate change on their adaptation indention. The results showed that the farmer's severity perception of climate change declined from the pure agriculture household to the household with combined occupation, and to the non-agriculture household, but the farmer's adaptation efficacy perception was vice versa. Moreover, all of the perceived probability, self-efficacy and adaptation cost of the household with combined occupation were highest, those of the non-agriculture household were the second place and those of the pure agriculture household were the lowest. The farmer's positive adaptation indention of climate change increased from the pure agriculture household to the household with combined occupation, and to the non-agriculture household. Increasing the perceived risk and adaptation efficacy would promote the farmer's positive adaptation intention, but increasing the perceived adaptation cost would promote the farmers' passive adaptation intention. Meanwhile, the more the farmer's agricultural acreage, livestock, income and optimistic degree were, the stronger the farmer's positive adaptation intention was; But the more the farmers' fixed capital, unpaid cash assistance opportunities, relative number and the number of people offering help were, the weaker the farmers' positive adaptation intention was. Finally, we pointed out the measures of promoting the positive adaptation intention and the problems on which we should focus in the future research.

Trans- and Interdisciplinarity in K-14 Climate Change Education: Trends Emerging from Recent Reports by the National Research Council

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storksdieck, M.

2012-12-01

A recent report by the National Research Council placed climate change or climate science education deeply into the curriculum of K-12 science education in the US (A Framework for K-12 Science Education). The NRC Framework is currently being translated into the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), an effort by 26 states, representing 57% of the US school-aged population, under the leadership of the educational nonprofit Achieve. A first draft version of the NGSS was made available to public audiences in June of 2012, and a revised draft will be available for a second round of reviews in later November of 2012; the final version of the NGSS which will likely feature climate change and climate science as part of Earth Systems Science, but also embedded in other areas of the science curriculum, is expected to be released in the spring of 2013. It has already become apparent, though, that successful implementation of the new standards down into effective classroom-based instruction will require a deep analysis of current and likely future barriers and opportunities for engaging K-14 students in climate change education. A recently released report on an NRC workshop conducted in 2011 summarizes these discussions (Climate Change Education in Formal Settings, K-14: A Workshop Summary). The proceedings of the workshop highlight the need to think in trans- or interdisciplinary ways about educating children in primary, secondary and early post-secondary education. This report builds on a 2010 workshop that addressed how to best reach general audiences on the issue of climate change education, particularly if the desired outcome is seen as building adaptive capacity in children and adults alike. This workshop was summarized in a report entitled Climate Change Education: Goals, Audiences, and Strategies. Opportunities for engaging students in trans- or interdisciplinary exploration of climate science or climate change-related topics, while available to K-12 students, abound in undergraduate education and informal learning. This presentation will feature a variety of cases in which climate is being addressed this way, and discuss principles that one can extract from such diverse examples as an integrated undergraduate minor; a youth-oriented show and related activities for schools provided by an educational non-profit; Green Schools and other specialty initiatives at the K-12 level that integrate education around climate and energy challenges, or programs in nature and science centers that address climate issues from a stewardship perspective, addressing actions children can take as part of the educational activities themselves. Principles that have guided various successful efforts to implement trans-and interdisciplinary climate education include orientation towards local and community action; relevance to learners; commitment by leadership and staff; institutional and organizational freedom to experiment and cooperate; opportunities to explore underlying natural and social science phenomena through hands-on and active learning; and commitment to excellence and scientific "truth". The session will close with a reflection on the merits of infusing climate change throughout the learning trajectory of a child, adolescent or young adult.

Prolonged carbonate diagenesis under an evolving late cenozoic climate; Nullarbor Plain, southern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Cody R.; James, Noel P.; Bone, Yvonne

2012-06-01

The Nullarbor Plain in southern Australia, the largest areal karst on the globe, is a ~ 240,000 km2 uplifted succession of Cenozoic marine carbonates whose surface has been exposed for 14 to 15 m.y. The middle Miocene Nullarbor Limestone forms the upper surface of the plain and hosts a complex and prolonged record of meteoric diagenesis. Such a complete record offers unique insights into the effects of climate, tectonics, sea level, topography, and hydrology on the style and placement of numerous diagenetic events in flat low lying carbonate plains. Alteration took place during three broad phases comprising eight stages that are interpreted to have formed against a background of dramatic climate change. Middle Miocene phase one diagenesis took place under a humid climate and resulted in rapid mineral equilibration, calcite cementation, extensive karst development, and finally widespread lacustrine and palustrine sedimentation. Resultant palustrine sediments, especially terrestrial ooids, are now preserved at the surface and in underlying karst cavities. Latest middle Miocene to middle Pliocene phase two diagenesis occurred during a prolonged period (~ 8 m.y.) of temperate climate and resulted in initial deep cave dissolution during low sea levels and later shallow cave development in the course of a high sea level. Onset of a somewhat more arid climate in the latest Pliocene led to the development of the modern desolate landscape of the Plain. This final phase of diagenesis involved creation of solution pits filled with black limestone pebbles, open and closed dolines with associated colluvium fill, and pervasive pedogenic calcrete. The Nullarbor Plain demonstrates that low lying carbonate plains can have low surficial erosion rates, precisely record relative sea level positions, be able to have extensive caves with extended periods of arrested calcite precipitation, and finally host extensive terrestrial ooid deposits. The importance of this comprehensive paragenetic record is its applicability to not only recognize unconformities in the rock record but to better appreciate the climate in which they formed.

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for releasemore » in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.« less

Effect assessment of Future Climate Change on Water Resource and Snow Quality in cold snowy regions in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, Y.; Nakatsugawa, M.; Kudo, K.

2017-12-01

It is predicted that the effects of global warming on everyday life will be clearly seen in cold, snowy regions such as Hokkaido. In relation to climate change, there is the concern that the warmer climate will affect not only water resources, but also local economies, in snowy areas, when air temperature increases and snowfall decreases become more marked in the future. Communities whose economies are greatly dependent on snow as a tourism resource, such as for winter sports and snow events, will lose large numbers of visitors because of the shortened winter season. This study was done as a basic study to provide basic ideas for planning adaptation strategies against climate change based on the local characteristics of a cold, snowy region. By taking dam catchment basins in Hokkaido as the subject areas and by using the climate change prediction data that correspond to IPCCAR5, the local-level influence of future climate change on snowfall and snow quality in relation to water resources and winter sports was quantitatively assessed. The water budget was examined for a dam catchment basin in Hokkaido under the present climate (September 1984 to August 2004) and under the future climate (September 2080 to August 2100) by using rainfall, snowfall and evapotranspiration estimated by the LoHAS heat and water balance analysis model.The examination found that, under the future climate, the net annual precipitation will decrease by up to 200 mm because of decreases in precipitation and in runoff height that will result from increased evapotranspiration. The predicted decrease in annual hydro potential of snowfall was considered to greatly affect the dam reservoir operation during the snowmelt season. The snow quality analysis by SNOWPACK revealed that the future snow would become granular earlier than it does at present. Most skiers' snow preferences, from best to worst, are light dry snow (i.e., fresh snow), lightly compacted snow, compacted snow and, finally, granular snow. If the late-season snow on the slope becomes granular earlier than it has in previous years, then the ski resort's snow conditions will deteriorate. Businesses that receive economic benefits from snow have developed in cold, snowy areas. This study demonstrates that the economic benefits of snow are expected to be greatly reduced by future climate change.

Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; Nicolau, Alex

Atmospheric chemistry controls the abundances and hence climate forcing of important greenhouse gases including N 2O, CH 4, HFCs, CFCs, and O 3. Attributing climate change to human activities requires, at a minimum, accurate models of the chemistry and circulation of the atmosphere that relate emissions to abundances. This DOE-funded research provided realistic, yet computationally optimized and affordable, photochemical modules to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that augment the CESM capability to explore the uncertainty in future stratospheric-tropospheric ozone, stratospheric circulation, and thus the lifetimes of chemically controlled greenhouse gases from climate simulations. To this end, we have successfullymore » implemented Fast-J (radiation algorithm determining key chemical photolysis rates) and Linoz v3.0 (linearized photochemistry for interactive O 3, N 2O, NO y and CH 4) packages in LLNL-CESM and for the first time demonstrated how change in O2 photolysis rate within its uncertainty range can significantly impact on the stratospheric climate and ozone abundances. From the UCI side, this proposal also helped LLNL develop a CAM-Superfast Chemistry model that was implemented for the IPCC AR5 and contributed chemical-climate simulations to CMIP5.« less