Demography and the shaping of Israel's borders.

PubMed

Soffer, A

1989-01-01

"This paper will show that the demographic map of the Land of Israel in its present form is essentially the principal factor in shaping the extent of Jewish settlement in this generation, and that there is little possibility of changing this pattern except for making small and insignificant adjustments." The author describes the changing demographic picture in Palestine from the late nineteenth century to the present day, particularly changes in the ethnic composition of the population. He concludes that the presence of a majority Arab population in the Occupied Territories of Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip will oblige Israel to compromise with regard to granting cultural and political autonomy. Furthermore, three large Arab enclaves in Israel proper--Galilee, the triangle, and the Bedouin Negev--will have to be given up if current settlement patterns do not radically change, which is itself unlikely. excerpt

Toward a social justice theory of demographic transition: lessons from India's Kerala State.

PubMed

Ratcliffe, J W

1983-06-01

Recent research evidence, which suggests that observed demographic trends and patterns are largely consequences of broad structural changes in society, has raised serious doubts about the validity of traditional demographic theory and the framework for action it has generated. This theoretical essay 1st recasts classical demographic transition theory in general systems terms in order to make it consistent with the evidence and to place the processes of fertility and mortality in a larger social context. The demographic transition experience of Kerala State, India is then recounted to provide a concrete example of the demographic response in society to structural reforms based primarily on equity considerations.

The genetic pattern of population threat and loss: a case study of butterflies.

PubMed

Schmitt, T; Hewitt, G M

2004-01-01

Recent decreases in biodiversity in Europe are commonly thought to be due to land use and climate change. However, the genetic diversity of populations is also seen as one essential factor for their fitness. Genetic diversity in species across the continent of Europe has been recognized as being in part a consequence of ice age isolation in southern refugia and postglacial colonization northwards, and these phylogeographical patterns may themselves affect the adaptability of populations. Recent work on butterfly species with different refugia, colonization paths and genetic structures allows this idea to be examined. The 'chalk-hill blue' pattern is one of decreasing genetic diversity from south to north, whereas the 'woodland ringlet' pattern shows greater genetic diversity in eastern than in western lineages. Comparison of population demographic trends in species with these biogeographical patterns reveals higher rates of decrease with lower genetic diversity. This indicates reduced adaptability due to genetic impoverishment as a result of glacial and postglacial range changes. Analysis of phylogeographical pattern may be a useful guide to interpreting demographic trends and in conservation planning.

Patterns of demographic change in the Americas.

PubMed

Ubelaker, D H

1992-06-01

Considerable scholarly debate has focused on the nature of demographic change in the Americas before and after 1492. Recent research on human skeletal samples and related archeological materials suggests that morbidity and mortality were increasing throughout much of the Western Hemisphere before 1492 in response to increased population density, increased sedentism, and changing subsistence. The evidence suggests that after 1492 population reduction was caused not by continental pandemics but by localized or regional epidemics augmented by social and economic disruption. The twentieth century has witnessed remarkable Native American population recovery, fueled both by improvements in health care and changing definitions of "being Indian."

The Effect of Recent Trends on Dental Hygiene.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douglass, Chester W.

1991-01-01

Six trends affecting dental hygiene practice are discussed: demographic changes; disease pattern changes; higher societal expectations; financing and delivery system changes; technological advancement; and regulatory and legislative trends. It is argued that, though the trends reflect positively on dental hygiene, practitioners need to increase…

Multilocus patterns of nucleotide polymorphism and demographic change in Taxodium distichum (Cupressaceae) in the lower Mississippi River alluvial valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kusumi, Junko; Zidong, Li; Kado, Tomoyuki; Tsumura, Yoshihiko; Middleton, Beth A.; Tachida, Hidenori

2010-01-01

Conclusions: Taxodium distichum had significantly higher nucleotide variation than C. japonica, and its patterns of polymorphism contrasted strikingly with those of the latter, which previously has been inferred to have experienced a reduction in population size.

Children in an ageing society.

PubMed

Hall, D M

1999-11-20

This paper explores the implications of demographic aging for children and pediatric practice in the Western society. It focuses on the social class differences in childbearing patterns, specific issues related to disability, and distribution of resources between age groups. Women in the Western world are now having children at an older age than at any time in the past 50 years. Voluntary childlessness or deliberate delay in childbearing is common among highly educated women. This changing pattern in childbearing may increase and polarize health and wealth inequalities. With advancements in neonatal and pediatric care which prolong life expectancy and survival of disabled children, it is projected that there will be an increasing number of very old parents caring for severely disabled offspring. Meanwhile, there are also many children who are carrying considerable burdens of caring for their disabled parents. The community burden of disability will continue to rise. The needs of the elderly population may drain resources from child health services. Despite this demographic pattern, care for the children is still important. Health care authorities must not become contented with the existing pediatric care services just because demographic changes require that the nation should invest more in care of the older population.

Demographic patterns of a widespread long-lived tree are associated with rainfall and disturbances along rainfall gradients in SE Australia

PubMed Central

Cohn, Janet S; Lunt, Ian D; Bradstock, Ross A; Hua, Quan; McDonald, Simon

2013-01-01

Predicting species distributions with changing climate has often relied on climatic variables, but increasingly there is recognition that disturbance regimes should also be included in distribution models. We examined how changes in rainfall and disturbances along climatic gradients determined demographic patterns in a widespread and long-lived tree species, Callitris glaucophylla in SE Australia. We examined recruitment since 1950 in relation to annual (200–600 mm) and seasonal (summer, uniform, winter) rainfall gradients, edaphic factors (topography), and disturbance regimes (vertebrate grazing [tenure and species], fire). A switch from recruitment success to failure occurred at 405 mm mean annual rainfall, coincident with a change in grazing regime. Recruitment was lowest on farms with rabbits below 405 mm rainfall (mean = 0–0.89 cohorts) and highest on less-disturbed tenures with no rabbits above 405 mm rainfall (mean = 3.25 cohorts). Moderate levels of recruitment occurred where farms had no rabbits or less disturbed tenures had rabbits above and below 405 mm rainfall (mean = 1.71–1.77 cohorts). These results show that low annual rainfall and high levels of introduced grazing has led to aging, contracting populations, while higher annual rainfall with low levels of grazing has led to younger, expanding populations. This study demonstrates how demographic patterns vary with rainfall and spatial variations in disturbances, which are linked in complex ways to climatic gradients. Predicting changes in tree distribution with climate change requires knowledge of how rainfall and key disturbances (tenure, vertebrate grazing) will shift along climatic gradients. PMID:23919160

Past connection and isolation of catchments: The sea-level changes affect the distribution and genetic variability of coastal freshwater fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tschá, Marcel K.; Bachmann, Lutz; Abilhoa, Vinícius; Boeger, Walter A.

2017-05-01

The Atlantic coast of South America is characterized by a great diversity and endemism of fishes. Past eustatic changes that promoted cycles of isolation, expansion, and connection of coastal catchments are considered putative drivers of genetic differentiation and phylogenetic diversity. It is hypothesized that recent eustatic movements have left signs of impact on the demographic history and local distribution patterns of freshwater fishes. This study addressed the phylogeography and demographic history of two siluriform (Scleromystax barbatus, Rineloricaria sp.) and one characiform (Mimagoniates microlepis) fish species from the coastal plain of the state of Paraná, Paranaguá Bay, Brazil. Nucleotide sequence data of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene support the hypothesis that the populations of the three species are genetically differentiated at all sampled catchments. Haplotype networks of these populations indicate different histories and include scenarios of secondary contact, population expansion, and isolation. Neutrality tests and the reconstructed patterns of demographic history in mismatch distributions were also consistent with population expansion in the western basins and, in general, secondary contact in the northern basins. Our results are consistent with the reconstructed paleodrainage in the region and with the hypothesis that recurrent reconnections and isolation of streams associated with eustatic changes have strongly influenced the current pattern of diversity, and reflect the distribution of freshwater fishes in this coastal hydrographic system.

Grandchild, Grandparent, and Parent Coresidence from 1970 to 1990: Structural Factors Affecting State Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Twyla J.

2006-01-01

This study analyzes structural forces affecting state patterns of parental presence within grandparent-grandchild coresidence by testing demographic, social change, policy environment, and social problems models. The project combines published state-level data with the 1970, 1980, and 1990 Census Public Use Microdata Samples. While factors…

Empirical Succession Mapping and Data Assimilation to Constrain Demographic Processes in an Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.

2015-12-01

Shifts in ecological communities in response to environmental change have implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to global climate change. Community composition is fundamentally the product of demography, but demographic processes are simplified or missing altogether in many ecosystem, Earth system, and species distribution models. This limitation arises in part because demographic data are noisy and difficult to synthesize. As a consequence, demographic processes are challenging to formulate in models in the first place, and to verify and constrain with data thereafter. Here, we used a novel analysis of the USFS Forest Inventory Analysis to improve the representation of demography in an ecosystem model. First, we created an Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM) based on ~1 million individual tree observations from the eastern U.S. to identify broad demographic patterns related to forest succession and disturbance. We used results from this analysis to guide reformulation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), an existing forest simulator with explicit tree demography. Results from the ESM reveal a coherent, cyclic pattern of change in temperate forest tree size and density over the eastern U.S. The ESM captures key ecological processes including succession, self-thinning, and gap-filling, and quantifies the typical trajectory of these processes as a function of tree size and stand density. Recruitment is most rapid in early-successional stands with low density and mean diameter, but slows as stand density increases; mean diameter increases until thinning promotes recruitment of small-diameter trees. Strikingly, the upper bound of size-density space that emerges in the ESM conforms closely to the self-thinning power law often observed in ecology. The ED model obeys this same overall size-density boundary, but overestimates plot-level growth, mortality, and fecundity rates, leading to unrealistic emergent demographic patterns. In particular, the current ED formulation cannot capture steady state dynamics evident in the ESM. Ongoing efforts are aimed at reformulating ED to more closely approach overall forest dynamics evident in the ESM, and then assimilating inventory data to constrain model parameters and initial conditions.

The Changing Faces of Community College Students in Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, Tennessee, and Washington

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McColloch, Mark D.; Miller, Natasha A.

2010-01-01

One of the most fundamental drivers of change at the nation's community colleges is enrollment. This paper examines the enrollment patterns of community colleges across five different regions of the country. It illustrates how changing populations will affect the demographic make-up of the student body for each state.

Socio-demographic transformations and living conditions among two indigenous and black populations in Northern Cauca during the period of 1993-2005.

PubMed

Urrea Giraldo, Fernando; Rodríguez Sánchez, Diego Alejandro

2012-04-01

To describe the changes that occurred in some patterns of socio-demographic variables and in living conditions among the Nasa, Guambiana and Afrocolombian populations in the northern region of the Department of Cauca, and those occurring in two residential communities, one white-mestizo and one black, in Cali during the 1993-2005 period. This paper presents a descriptive study that analyzes several socio-demographic indicators from the census of 1993 and 2005, the specific data include: rate of juvenile dependency; total masculinity index; average size of the household; specific global and local birth rates, and infant mortality rates; life expectancy at birth; average years of schooling; health cover age status; and percentage of the population with unmet basic needs (UBN). In this way, it is possible to note differences in the course of socio-demographic evolution and in the standard of living trends in the differing populations under study. The Guambiana Indian population in the municipality of Silvia presents lower birth rates than the Nasa population, characterized by their seasonal birth rates. Differing from the pattern of the indigenous people of Northern Cauca, the Afro-Colombian population both from this region and from the population residing in the urban zones of Cali's tend to show similar socio-demographic patterns. Although there have been profound changes recorded during this period among these populations under study, the ethnic-racial inequalities and those of social class seem to persist. From this first diagnosis, attention is called to the need for a more adequate reproductive health policy to attend the specific needs presented by the indigenous population.

Socio-demographic transformations and living conditions among two indigenous and black populations in Northern Cauca during the period of 1993-2005

PubMed Central

Rodríguez Sánchez, Diego Alejandro

2012-01-01

Objectives: To describe the changes that occurred in some patterns of socio-demographic variables and in living conditions among the Nasa, Guambiana and Afrocolombian populations in the northern region of the Department of Cauca, and those occurring in two residential communities, one white-mestizo and one black, in Cali during the 1993-2005 period. Methods: This paper presents a descriptive study that analyzes several socio-demographic indicators from the census of 1993 and 2005, the specific data include: rate of juvenile dependency; total masculinity index; average size of the household; specific global and local birth rates, and infant mortality rates; life expectancy at birth; average years of schooling; health cover age status; and percentage of the population with unmet basic needs (UBN). In this way, it is possible to note differences in the course of socio-demographic evolution and in the standard of living trends in the differing populations under study. Results: The Guambiana Indian population in the municipality of Silvia presents lower birth rates than the Nasa population, characterized by their seasonal birth rates. Differing from the pattern of the indigenous people of Northern Cauca, the Afro-Colombian population both from this region and from the population residing in the urban zones of Cali's tend to show similar socio-demographic patterns. Conclusions: Although there have been profound changes recorded during this period among these populations under study, the ethnic-racial inequalities and those of social class seem to persist. From this first diagnosis, attention is called to the need for a more adequate reproductive health policy to attend the specific needs presented by the indigenous population. PMID:24893053

[The demographic potential of Russia].

PubMed

Vishnevskii, A

1998-05-01

This is a general review of current demographic trends in Russia. The author analyzes the decline in population size that is taking place at the end of the twentieth century, and traces its origins as far back as the disturbances associated with World War I, the Communist revolution, and the civil war that followed it. Political repression during the Stalinist period and the tribulations experienced during World War II also contributed to the current demographic crisis. The author discusses the changes in migration patterns and the declining fertility and increasing mortality rates. The decline in life expectancy is also addressed. Some comparisons are made with the demographic situation in other European countries.

Evolutionary history of Lissotriton helveticus: multilocus assessment of ancestral vs. recent colonization of the Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Recuero, Ernesto; García-París, Mario

2011-07-01

The Pleistocene was characterized by climatic changes that greatly altered the distribution of organisms. Population extinctions, bottlenecks, isolation, range expansions and contractions were often associated with glaciations, leaving signatures in the spatial patterns of genetic diversity across species. Lissotriton helveticus belongs to a Pan-European lineage of newts that were strongly affected by glaciations and represent an excellent model to analyse the effect of generalized climatic changes in phylogeographic patterns. We studied the genetic diversity of the species using data from two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes analyzed in a Bayesian phylogenetic framework to investigate the historical processes shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity. Mitochondrial haplotypes cluster in four different groups present in the Iberian Peninsula and of Pleistocene origin, probably by allopatric fragmentation. Nuclear genes present no obvious geographic structure patterns, suggesting gene flow and generalized incomplete lineage sorting. Populations north of the Pyrenees are closely related to those from northeastern Iberia, suggesting recent range expansion from this region. Historical demographic analyses indicate a demographic expansion starting about 100,000years ago and more recent population declines. Compared to other Lissotriton species, L. helveticus includes only relatively young genetic lineages, suggesting a Central European pre-Pleistocene distribution followed by complete extirpation of the species during glaciations in that area. Historical demographic trends in the Iberian Peninsula are reversed with respect to the more Mediterranean species Lissotriton boscai, indicating different responses of both species to climate changes. Diversity patterns among Lissotriton species seem to be defined by four main factors: ancestral distributions, colonization capabilities, interactions with other species and effective population sizes. Differences in these factors define two types of species, referred to as "R" (refugia) and "S" (sanctuaries) that explain part of the diversity in patterns of genetic diversity created by glaciations in Western Europe. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diffusion of Lexical Change in Social Media

PubMed Central

Eisenstein, Jacob; O'Connor, Brendan; Smith, Noah A.; Xing, Eric P.

2014-01-01

Computer-mediated communication is driving fundamental changes in the nature of written language. We investigate these changes by statistical analysis of a dataset comprising 107 million Twitter messages (authored by 2.7 million unique user accounts). Using a latent vector autoregressive model to aggregate across thousands of words, we identify high-level patterns in diffusion of linguistic change over the United States. Our model is robust to unpredictable changes in Twitter's sampling rate, and provides a probabilistic characterization of the relationship of macro-scale linguistic influence to a set of demographic and geographic predictors. The results of this analysis offer support for prior arguments that focus on geographical proximity and population size. However, demographic similarity – especially with regard to race – plays an even more central role, as cities with similar racial demographics are far more likely to share linguistic influence. Rather than moving towards a single unified “netspeak” dialect, language evolution in computer-mediated communication reproduces existing fault lines in spoken American English. PMID:25409166

Advance or Retreat? Early Childhood Services in the Eighties.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burns, Alisa

1981-01-01

Predicts that changing sociocultural patterns will affect services for Australian children in the 1980s. Among topics discussed are demographic changes: a decreased birth rate and an increased number of working mothers in fatherless families at the poverty level. Compensatory education programs and family policy development in Western societies…

Spatial pattern and scale influence invader demographic response to simulated precipitation change in an annual grassland community

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requ...

Managing Children's Services in the Public Library. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fasick, Adele M.

This book examines the ways in which children's librarians can manage their services so collections and programs reach the intended audience. In the introduction to this second edition, the author considers recent changes in demographics, economics, social patterns, media and technology trends, and consequent changing emphases in managing…

Coping with Changing Demographics. ERIC Digest Series Number EA45.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klauke, Amy

Studying local and national population distribution, as well as economic and social patterns, is becoming crucial for educators who serve rapidly changing communities. School officials should take into consideration the tremendous diversity in cultures, economic and family situations, and educational levels existing within an ethnic group. Several…

Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey; Lin, Lei

2017-08-16

With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variabilitymore » describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. In conclusion, the sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.« less

Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Lei; Gonder, Jeffrey; Lin, Lei

With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variabilitymore » describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. In conclusion, the sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.« less

Encouraging alternative transportation behavior among baby boomers via simulations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-04-01

Due to disruptions prompted by changing demographic patterns, aging infrastructure, and a : growing green culture New England states have been at the forefront of searching for options : to encourage sustainable transportation alternatives. How...

The Impact of Selection, Gene Conversion, and Biased Sampling on the Assessment of Microbial Demography.

PubMed

Lapierre, Marguerite; Blin, Camille; Lambert, Amaury; Achaz, Guillaume; Rocha, Eduardo P C

2016-07-01

Recent studies have linked demographic changes and epidemiological patterns in bacterial populations using coalescent-based approaches. We identified 26 studies using skyline plots and found that 21 inferred overall population expansion. This surprising result led us to analyze the impact of natural selection, recombination (gene conversion), and sampling biases on demographic inference using skyline plots and site frequency spectra (SFS). Forward simulations based on biologically relevant parameters from Escherichia coli populations showed that theoretical arguments on the detrimental impact of recombination and especially natural selection on the reconstructed genealogies cannot be ignored in practice. In fact, both processes systematically lead to spurious interpretations of population expansion in skyline plots (and in SFS for selection). Weak purifying selection, and especially positive selection, had important effects on skyline plots, showing patterns akin to those of population expansions. State-of-the-art techniques to remove recombination further amplified these biases. We simulated three common sampling biases in microbiological research: uniform, clustered, and mixed sampling. Alone, or together with recombination and selection, they further mislead demographic inferences producing almost any possible skyline shape or SFS. Interestingly, sampling sub-populations also affected skyline plots and SFS, because the coalescent rates of populations and their sub-populations had different distributions. This study suggests that extreme caution is needed to infer demographic changes solely based on reconstructed genealogies. We suggest that the development of novel sampling strategies and the joint analyzes of diverse population genetic methods are strictly necessary to estimate demographic changes in populations where selection, recombination, and biased sampling are present. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Genome Surfing As Driver of Microbial Genomic Diversity.

PubMed

Choudoir, Mallory J; Panke-Buisse, Kevin; Andam, Cheryl P; Buckley, Daniel H

2017-08-01

Historical changes in population size, such as those caused by demographic range expansions, can produce nonadaptive changes in genomic diversity through mechanisms such as gene surfing. We propose that demographic range expansion of a microbial population capable of horizontal gene exchange can result in genome surfing, a mechanism that can cause widespread increase in the pan-genome frequency of genes acquired by horizontal gene exchange. We explain that patterns of genetic diversity within Streptomyces are consistent with genome surfing, and we describe several predictions for testing this hypothesis both in Streptomyces and in other microorganisms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social and Demographic Problems of Young People in the Russian Federation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ermakov, S. P.

2014-01-01

Changes in reproductive behavior among young people in Russia, changing patterns of marriage and family formation, and high death rates among males are all affecting Russia's human capital potential, and public policy reforms will need to take this into account. The new Federal Law "On Youth Policy" represents an important stage that…

Patterns of participation over four rounds of annual fecal immunochemical test-based screening for colorectal cancer: what predicts rescreening?

PubMed

Osborne, Joanne M; Wilson, Carlene; Duncan, Amy; Cole, Stephen R; Flight, Ingrid; Turnbull, Deborah; Hughes, Donna L; Young, Graeme P

2017-08-01

Participation at the recommended intervals is critical for screening to be effective in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence. This study describes patterns of screening participation over four rounds of fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) to identify whether demographic variables and prior screening satisfaction are significantly associated with patterns of re-participation. Baseline surveys were mailed to 4000 South Australians randomly selected from the electoral-roll. Respondents (n = 1928/48.2%) were offered four annual FIT rounds. Screening participation and satisfaction at each round were recorded. Study participation was 58.5, 66.9, 73.1 and 71.4% respectively over four rounds. Three participation patterns were described: consistent participation (43.1%), consistent non-participation (26.4%) and inconsistent participation (changeable; 30.5%), including intermittent and sustained change patterns. Sustained change described those who changed participatory behavior and then maintained for at least two rounds (n = 375/19.5%). Older people, and those not working were most likely to sustain participation. Younger invitees, especially men, were more likely to change participatory behavior and sustain the change. People with higher disadvantage, less education, not working and with no prior (pre-trial) screening experience were more likely to start participating and drop out. People dissatisfied with a prior screening test, including finding aspects embarrassing or unpleasant, were also more likely not to participate in annual screening or to drop out. The findings identify those at risk of non- or inconsistent participation in rescreening. They should aid targeting of interventions for demographic groups at risk and ensuring screening experiences are not perceived as unpleasant or difficult.

Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hotaling, Scott; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Giersch, J. Joseph; Ali, Omar; Jordan, Steve; Miller, Michael R.; Luikart, Gordon; Weisrock, David W.

2018-01-01

AimClimate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and demographic modelling to resolve the evolutionary history of Lednia tumana, a rare, aquatic insect endemic to alpine streams. We also employed a range of widely used data filtering approaches to quantify how they influenced population structure results.LocationAlpine streams in the Rocky Mountains of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA.TaxonLednia tumana, a stonefly (Order Plecoptera) in the family Nemouridae.MethodsWe generated single nucleotide polymorphism data through restriction-site associated DNA sequencing to assess contemporary patterns of genetic structure for 11 L. tumana populations. Using identified clusters, we assessed demographic history through model selection and parameter estimation in a coalescent framework. During population structure analyses, we filtered our data to assess the influence of singletons, missing data and total number of markers on results.ResultsContemporary patterns of population structure indicate that L. tumana exhibits a pattern of isolation-by-distance among populations within three genetic clusters that align with geography. Mean pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) among populations was 0.033. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported divergence with gene flow among genetic clusters since the end of the Pleistocene (~13-17 kya), likely reflecting the south-to-north recession of ice sheets that accumulated during the Wisconsin glaciation.Main conclusionsWe identified a link between glacial retreat, evolutionary history and patterns of genetic diversity for a range-restricted stonefly imperiled by climate change. This finding included a history of divergence with gene flow, an unexpected conclusion for a mountaintop species. Beyond L. tumana, this study demonstrates the complexity of assessing genetic structure for weakly differentiated species, shows the degree to which rare alleles and missing data may influence results, and highlights the usefulness of genome-scale data to extend population genetic inquiry in non-model species.

Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O3) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics.

Migration, Acculturation and Environment: Determinants of Obesity among Iranian Migrants in Australia

PubMed Central

Delavari, Maryam; Sønderlund, Anders Larrabee; Mellor, David; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Swinburn, Boyd

2015-01-01

While migration from low- to high-income countries is typically associated with weight gain, the obesity risks of migration from middle-income countries are less certain. In addition to changes in behaviours and cultural orientation upon migration, analyses of changes in environments are needed to explain post-migration risks for obesity. The present study examines the interaction between obesity-related environmental factors and the pattern of migrant acculturation in a sample of 152 Iranian immigrants in Victoria, Australia. Weight measurements, demographics, physical activity levels and diet habits were also surveyed. The pattern of acculturation (relative integration, assimilation, separation or marginalization) was not related to body mass index, diet, or physical activity behaviours. Three relevant aspects of participants’ perception of the Australian environment (physically active environments, social pressure to be fit, unhealthy food environments) varied considerably by demographic characteristics, but only one (physically active environments) was related to a pattern of acculturation (assimilation). Overall, this research highlighted a number of key relationships between acculturation and obesity-related environments and behaviours for our study sample. Theoretical models on migration, culture and obesity need to include environmental factors. PMID:25648171

Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming

PubMed Central

Sorte, Cascade J. B.; White, J. Wilson

2013-01-01

Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns. PMID:23658199

Can legislation provide a better match between demand and supply in psychotherapy?

PubMed

Springer-Kremser, Marianne; Eder, Anselm; Jandl-Jager, Elisabeth; Hager, Isabella

2002-10-01

There is evidence showing that psychotherapy very often does not reach the persons most in need of it. A change in patterns of "consumer behaviour" is difficult to achieve on the basis of individual behavioural change. Can it be achieved by changes in legislation? By comparing socio-demographic criteria of patients seen at the University Clinic of Psychoanalysis and Psychotherapy between 1990 and 1996, we are able to give some evidence that changes in legislation, concerning psychotherapy, which took place in the years 1991, 1994 and 1995, had a significant effect on the socio-demographic composition of our patient population, showing a convergence of patient population towards the socio-demographic criteria of the population of Vienna. We argue that the changes in legislation in Austria, concerning funding of psychotherapy, and introducing a new profession "psychotherapist", have a measurable effect which works in two ways: 1) direct effect: decreased financial charge of patients; 2) indirect effect: increased motivation of patients, resulting from a reduction in stigmas attached to the role of "psychiatric patient".

[International demographic developments in 1991 and 1992].

PubMed

Zakee, R

1992-09-01

Patterns in international migration in Europe for 1991 and 1992 are analyzed. Consideration is given to migration within Europe and from outside Europe to the continent. The effects of recent political changes in Eastern Europe and Yugoslavia on asylum applications for the Netherlands are also discussed. Some data on population change in Europe are also presented. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

[Socio-demographic aspects of the family around the world].

PubMed

Dumont, G F

1996-06-01

Trends affecting the family around the world are reviewed. The author examines such issues as changing attitudes toward marriage, the decline in marriage rates and its consequences, changes in age at marriage, increases in life expectancy, divorce, and household size. He also discusses geographical differences in family patterns as well as features that are common to families everywhere.

Demographic amplification of climate change experienced by the contiguous United States population during the 20(th) century.

PubMed

Samson, Jason; Berteaux, Dominique; McGill, Brian J; Humphries, Murray M

2012-01-01

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20(th) century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.

Demographic Amplification of Climate Change Experienced by the Contiguous United States Population during the 20th Century

PubMed Central

Samson, Jason; Berteaux, Dominique; McGill, Brian J.; Humphries, Murray M.

2012-01-01

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20th century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse. PMID:23115624

Demographic patterns and trends in Central Ghana: baseline indicators from the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Nettey, Obed Ernest A.; Zandoh, Charles; Sulemana, Abubakari; Adda, Robert; Amenga-Etego, Seeba; Mbacke, Cheikh

2012-01-01

Background The dearth of health and demographic data in sub-Saharan Africa from vital registration systems and its impact on effective planning for health and socio-economic development is widely documented. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems have the capacity to address the dearth of quality data for policy making in resource-poor settings. Objective This article demonstrates the utility of the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) by showing the patterns and trends of population change from 2005 to 2009 in the Kintampo North Municipality and Kintampo South districts of Ghana through data obtained from the KHDSS biannual update rounds. Design Basic demographic rates for fertility, mortality, and migration were computed by year. School enrolment was computed as a percentage in school by age and sex for 6–18 year-olds. Socio-economic status was derived by use of Principal Components Analysis on household assets. Results Over the period, an earlier fertility decline was reversed in 2009; mortality declined slightly for all age-groups, and a significant share of working-age population was lost through out-migration. Large minorities of children of school-going age are not in school. Socio-economic factors are shown to be important determinants of fertility and mortality. Conclusion Strengthening the capacity of HDSSs could offer added value to evidence-driven policymaking at local level. PMID:23273249

Demographic patterns and trends in Central Ghana: baseline indicators from the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System.

PubMed

Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Nettey, Obed Ernest A; Zandoh, Charles; Sulemana, Abubakari; Adda, Robert; Amenga-Etego, Seeba; Mbacke, Cheikh

2012-12-20

The dearth of health and demographic data in sub-Saharan Africa from vital registration systems and its impact on effective planning for health and socio-economic development is widely documented. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems have the capacity to address the dearth of quality data for policy making in resource-poor settings. This article demonstrates the utility of the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) by showing the patterns and trends of population change from 2005 to 2009 in the Kintampo North Municipality and Kintampo South districts of Ghana through data obtained from the KHDSS biannual update rounds. Basic demographic rates for fertility, mortality, and migration were computed by year. School enrolment was computed as a percentage in school by age and sex for 6-18 year-olds. Socio-economic status was derived by use of Principal Components Analysis on household assets. Over the period, an earlier fertility decline was reversed in 2009; mortality declined slightly for all age-groups, and a significant share of working-age population was lost through out-migration. Large minorities of children of school-going age are not in school. Socio-economic factors are shown to be important determinants of fertility and mortality. Strengthening the capacity of HDSSs could offer added value to evidence-driven policymaking at local level.

Economic development, urbanization, technological change and overweight: What do we learn from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys?

PubMed Central

Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Suhrcke, Marc

2014-01-01

Obesity and overweight are spreading fast in developing countries, and have reached world record levels in some of them. Capturing the size, patterns and trends of the problem has, however, been severely hampered by the lack of comparable data in low and middle income countries. We seek to begin to fill this gap by testing several hypotheses on the determinants/correlates of overweight among women, related to the influence of economic and technological development. We undertake econometric analysis of nationally representative data on about 878,000 women aged 15–49 from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 56 countries over the years 1991–2009. Our findings support most previously expressed hypotheses of what might explain obesity patterns in developing countries, but they also reject some prior notions and add considerable nuance to the emerging pattern. PMID:24457038

The demographic dynamics of small island societies.

PubMed

Cruz, M; D'ayala, P G; Marcus, E; Mcelroy, J L; Rossi, O

1987-01-01

Small islands and microstates have demonstrated a unique demographic pattern, including cycles of swift population increases or decreases well beyond natural birth and death rate balances. These demographic fluctuations have been produced largely by rises or declines in market opportunities. The process of taking advantage of favorable opportunities is always followed by a specialization in the given activity, without regard to environmental protection issues or a longterm strategy for economic development and resource diversification. The population growth phase is associated with increasing fragility of the economic base, whether because of the external dangers of overspecialization or induced internal dysfunctions such as disease and resource depletion. Eventually complete collapse results, causing chronic outmigration or even depopulation. Case histories of maritime basins in the Mediterranean, Caribbean, and Pacific show that the demographic structure of small islands has been particularly sensitive to changing economic opportunities, the vagaries of market forces, and cataclysmic natural events. Experience in these areas suggests that balanced economic development of small islands should be based on diversification of activities, thus ensuring a relatively stable pattern of growth, sound environmental management, and control of dangerous demographic fluctuations. Special attention should be given to the development of broad-based research and cooperation to integrate specific island opportunities within a regional network.

Changes in seafood consumer preference patterns and associated changes in risk exposure.

PubMed

Jensen, Helen H

2006-01-01

Consumers world-wide are driving changes in the agriculture and food sector. Rising consumer income, changing demographics and lifestyles, and shifting preferences due to new information about the links between diet and health all contribute to new demands for foods. At the same time, technological changes in production, processing and distribution, growth in large-scale retailing, and changes in product availability, as well as expansion of trade world wide, have contributed to a rapidly changing market for food products. Changes in seafood consumption reflect these changes. The changes in consumer consumption patterns, new technologies and trade in product offer both expanded markets as well as new challenges to consumer exposure to food-borne risks. The strict quality control requirements of retail brokers, growth of private labels, and development of value-protecting marketing channels have become increasingly important in food markets. This paper addresses major trends that affect seafood consumption and the market for seafood products and the implications of these changes for consumer risk exposure to food safety hazards. The current economic environment highlights similarities and differences between the developed and developing countries, as well as diversity worldwide in consumption of seafood. Within this context, four major trends affect consumer consumption of foods, including seafood and fish products today: rising income; changing demographics; changing markets for food; and an increasingly global market for food products. Changes in consumer risk exposure to food safety problems are addressed in the context of these trends.

Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Mena, Carlos F; Walsh, Stephen J; Frizzelle, Brian G; Xiaozheng, Yao; Malanson, George P

2011-01-01

This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways.

Eating patterns and energy and nutrient intakes of US women.

PubMed

Haines, P S; Hungerford, D W; Popkin, B M; Guilkey, D K

1992-06-01

A longitudinal multivariate analysis was used to determine whether differences in energy and nutrient intakes were present for women classified into different eating patterns. Ten multidimensional eating patterns were created based on the proportion of energy consumed at home and at seven away-from-home locations. Data were from 1,120 women aged 19 through 50 years who were surveyed up to six times over a 1-year period as part of the 1985 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals, US Department of Agriculture. Data from 5,993 days were analyzed. To examine differences in energy and nutrient intakes, longitudinal multivariate analyses were used to control for eating pattern and factors such as demographics, season, and day of week. Younger women in the Fast Food eating pattern consumed the greatest intakes of energy, total fat, saturated fat, cholesterol, and sodium. Well-educated, higher-income women in the Restaurant pattern consumed diets with the highest overall fat density. Nutrient densities for dietary fiber, calcium, vitamin C, and folacin were particularly low in away-from-home eating patterns. In contrast, moderately educated, middle-aged and middle-income women in the Home Mixed eating pattern (70% at home, 30% away from home) consumed the most healthful diets. We conclude that knowledge of demographics such as income and education is not enough to target dietary interventions. Rather, educational efforts must consider both demographics and the location of away-from-home eating. This will allow development of behavioral change strategies that consider food choices dictated by the eating environment as well as personal knowledge and attitude factors related to adoption of healthful food choices.

A demographic perspective on the Middle to Later Stone Age transition from Nasera rockshelter, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Tryon, Christian A.; Faith, J. Tyler

2016-01-01

Increased population density is among the proposed drivers of the behavioural changes culminating in the Middle to Later Stone Age (MSA–LSA) transition and human dispersals from East Africa, but reliable archaeological measures of demographic change are lacking. We use Late Pleistocene–Holocene lithic and faunal data from Nasera rockshelter (Tanzania) to show progressive declines in residential mobility—a variable linked to population density—and technological shifts, the latter associated with environmental changes. These data suggest that the MSA–LSA transition is part of a long-term pattern of changes in residential mobility and technology that reflect human responses to increased population density, with dispersals potentially marking a complementary response to larger populations. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Major transitions in human evolution’. PMID:27298469

Asymmetric changes of growth and reproductive investment herald altitudinal and latitudinal range shifts of two woody species.

PubMed

Matías, Luis; Jump, Alistair S

2015-02-01

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of the geographical distribution of a species, where range expansions or contractions may occur. Current demographical status at geographical range limits can help us to predict population trends and their implications for the future distribution of the species. Thus, understanding the comparability of demographical patterns occurring along both altitudinal and latitudinal gradients would be highly informative. In this study, we analyse the differences in the demography of two woody species through altitudinal gradients at their southernmost distribution limit and the consistency of demographical patterns at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the complete distribution range. We focus on Pinus sylvestris and Juniperus communis, assessing their demographical structure (density, age and mortality rate), growth, reproduction investment and damage from herbivory on 53 populations covering the upper, central and lower altitudes as well as the treeline at central latitude and northernmost and southernmost latitudinal distribution limits. For both species, populations at the lowermost altitude presented older age structure, higher mortality, decreased growth and lower reproduction when compared to the upper limit, indicating higher fitness at the treeline. This trend at the treeline was generally maintained through the latitudinal gradient, but with a decreased growth at the northern edge for both species and lower reproduction for P. sylvestris. However, altitudinal and latitudinal transects are not directly comparable as factors other than climate, including herbivore pressure or human management, must be taken into account if we are to understand how to infer latitudinal processes from altitudinal data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multiple Health Behaviors: Patterns and Correlates of Diet and Exercise in a Hispanic College Sample

PubMed Central

Hu, Dixie; Taylor, Thom; Blow, Julie; Cooper, Theodore V.

2011-01-01

Obesity rates are alarming in various ethnocultural groups, particularly in Hispanics. With Hispanics being the fastest growing group to enter college, the aims of the current study were to examine patterns and correlates of exercise and dietary behaviors in Hispanic college students. Data were collected from 693 Hispanic undergraduates who enrolled online and received course extra credit for participation. Individuals completed questionnaires assessing constructs of the transtheoretical model for three health behaviors (exercise, dietary fat, and fruit/vegetable stages of change) along with demographic, psychosocial, and acculturation measures. Less than 1% of students had 0 obesity-relevant risks, while 68% indicated 2 or more risks. Only 2% of the sample met fruit and vegetable guidelines. Lower income was associated with greater obesity-relevant risks, while stress coping ability was associated with fewer such risks. Findings indicate specific obesity risk behaviors in Hispanic college students and suggest demographic and psychosocial targets for prevention and intervention according to stage of change. PMID:22051363

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Sex-specific genetic analysis indicates low correlation between demographic and genetic connectivity in the Scandinavian brown bear (Ursus arctos).

PubMed

Schregel, Julia; Kopatz, Alexander; Eiken, Hans Geir; Swenson, Jon E; Hagen, Snorre B

2017-01-01

The degree of gene flow within and among populations, i.e. genetic population connectivity, may closely track demographic population connectivity. Alternatively, the rate of gene flow may change relative to the rate of dispersal. In this study, we explored the relationship between genetic and demographic population connectivity using the Scandinavian brown bear as model species, due to its pronounced male dispersal and female philopatry. Thus, we expected that females would shape genetic structure locally, whereas males would act as genetic mediators among regions. To test this, we used eight validated microsatellite markers on 1531 individuals sampled noninvasively during country-wide genetic population monitoring in Sweden and Norway from 2006 to 2013. First, we determined sex-specific genetic structure and substructure across the study area. Second, we compared genetic differentiation, migration/gene flow patterns, and spatial autocorrelation results between the sexes both within and among genetic clusters and geographic regions. Our results indicated that demographic connectivity was not a reliable indicator of genetic connectivity. Among regions, we found no consistent difference in long-term gene flow and estimated current migration rates between males and females. Within regions/genetic clusters, only females consistently displayed significant positive spatial autocorrelation, indicating male-biased small-scale dispersal. In one cluster, however, males showed a dispersal pattern similar to females. The Scandinavian brown bear population has experienced substantial recovery over the last decades; however, our results did not show any changes in its large-scale population structure compared to previous studies, suggesting that an increase in population size and dispersal of individuals does not necessary lead to increased genetic connectivity. Thus, we conclude that both genetic and demographic connectivity should be estimated, so as not to make false assumptions about the reality of wildlife populations.

Patterns of leisure time and non-leisure time physical activity of Korean immigrant women.

PubMed

Choi, Jiwon; Wilbur, Joellen; Kim, Mi Ja

2011-02-01

Our purpose in this study was to examine the patterns of physical activity and demographic characteristics associated with those patterns in Korean immigrants in the United States. Participants were 197 women, and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire was utilized. The inactive pattern was the most frequent pattern in all domains of physical activity except household physical activity. There were differences among the patterns of physical activity that were associated with variations in demographic characteristics. Health care providers who serve immigrants should assess physical activity level and demographic characteristics of the immigrants to enhance their physical activity.

Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposures to ozone.

PubMed

Dionisio, Kathie L; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Graham, Stephen; Caraway, Nina; Foley, Kristen M; Isaacs, Kristin K

2017-05-01

The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O 3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O 3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O 3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O 3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics. These results indicate the potential for future changes in O 3 exposure as a result of changes in climate that could impact human health.

Understanding the Growth of Contingent Faculty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNaughtan, Jon; García, Hugo A.; Nehls, Kim

2017-01-01

This chapter presents demographic characteristics of contingent faculty across and within higher education sectors. The descriptive data provide insight into how each sector's hiring patterns have changed over the past 30 years. Results indicate that regardless of institutional type, the role of contingent faculty has increased and will likely…

The Retirees Are Coming--Or Are They?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoenfeld, Clay

1993-01-01

Changes in retirement patterns at colleges and universities can be expected because of demographic reasons and because of federal and state legislation uncapping mandatory retirement. Institutional policies that will encourage reluctant older faculty to retire need to address the three fundamental components of successful employee retirement: (1)…

Demographic expansion of two Tamarix species along the Yellow River caused by geological events and climate change in the Pleistocene.

PubMed

Liang, Hong-Yan; Feng, Zhi-Pei; Pei, Bing; Li, Yong; Yang, Xi-Tian

2018-01-08

The geological events and climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene played important roles in shaping patterns of species distribution. However, few studies have evaluated the patterns of species distribution that were influenced by the Yellow River. The present work analyzed the demography of two endemic tree species that are widely distributed along the Yellow River, Tamarix austromongolica and Tamarix chinensis, to understand the role of the Yellow River and Pleistocene climate in shaping their distribution patterns. The most common chlorotype, chlorotype 1, was found in all populations, and its divergence time could be dated back to 0.19 million years ago (Ma). This dating coincides well with the formation of the modern Yellow River and the timing of Marine Isotope Stages 5e-6 (MIS 5e-6). Bayesian reconstructions along with models of paleodistribution revealed that these two species experienced a demographic expansion in population size during the Quaternary period. Approximate Bayesian computation analyses supported a scenario of expansion approximately from the upper to lower reaches of the Yellow River. Our results provide support for the roles of the Yellow River and the Pleistocene climate in driving demographic expansion of the populations of T. austromongolica and T. chinensis. These findings are useful for understanding the effects of geological events and past climatic fluctuations on species distribution patterns.

Dietary Pattern Trajectories from 6 to 12 Months of Age in a Multi-Ethnic Asian Cohort

PubMed Central

Lim, Geraldine Huini; Toh, Jia Ying; Aris, Izzuddin M.; Chia, Ai-Ru; Han, Wee Meng; Saw, Seang Mei; Godfrey, Keith M.; Gluckman, Peter D.; Chong, Yap-Seng; Yap, Fabian; Lee, Yung Seng; Kramer, Michael S.; Chong, Mary Foong-Fong

2016-01-01

Little is known about the dietary patterns of Asian infants in the first year of life, nor of their associations with maternal socio-demographic factors. Based on the Growing Up in Singapore towards healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) mother-offspring cohort, cross-sectional dietary patterns were derived by factor analysis using 24-h recalls and food diaries of infants at 6-, 9- and 12-months of age. Dietary pattern trajectories were modeled by mapping similar dietary patterns across each age using multilevel mixed models. Associations with maternal socio-demographic variables, collected through questionnaires during pregnancy, were assessed using general linear models. In n = 486 infants, four dietary pattern trajectories were established from 6- to 12-months. Predominantly breastmilk: mainly breastmilk and less formula milk, Guidelines: rice porridge, vegetables, fruits and low-fat fish and meat, Easy-to-prepare foods: infant cereals, juices, cakes and biscuits and Noodles (in soup) and seafood: noodle and common accompaniments. In adjusted models, higher maternal education attainment was correlated with higher start scores on Predominantly breastmilk, but lowest education attainment increased its adherence over time. Older mothers had higher start scores on Easy-to-prepare foods, but younger mothers had increased adherence over time. Chinese mothers had higher start scores on Predominantly breastmilk but greater adherence to Guidelines over time, while Indian mothers had higher start scores on Easy-to-prepare foods but greater adherence to Predominantly breastmilk with time (p < 0.05 for all). Changes in trajectories over time were small. Hence, dietary patterns established during weaning are strongly influenced by maternal socio-demographic factors and remain stable over the first year of life. PMID:27314387

Dietary Pattern Trajectories from 6 to 12 Months of Age in a Multi-Ethnic Asian Cohort.

PubMed

Lim, Geraldine Huini; Toh, Jia Ying; Aris, Izzuddin M; Chia, Ai-Ru; Han, Wee Meng; Saw, Seang Mei; Godfrey, Keith M; Gluckman, Peter D; Chong, Yap-Seng; Yap, Fabian; Lee, Yung Seng; Kramer, Michael S; Chong, Mary Foong-Fong

2016-06-15

Little is known about the dietary patterns of Asian infants in the first year of life, nor of their associations with maternal socio-demographic factors. Based on the Growing Up in Singapore towards healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) mother-offspring cohort, cross-sectional dietary patterns were derived by factor analysis using 24-h recalls and food diaries of infants at 6-, 9- and 12-months of age. Dietary pattern trajectories were modeled by mapping similar dietary patterns across each age using multilevel mixed models. Associations with maternal socio-demographic variables, collected through questionnaires during pregnancy, were assessed using general linear models. In n = 486 infants, four dietary pattern trajectories were established from 6- to 12-months. Predominantly breastmilk: mainly breastmilk and less formula milk, rice porridge, vegetables, fruits and low-fat fish and meat, Easy-to-prepare foods: infant cereals, juices, cakes and biscuits and Noodles (in soup) and seafood: noodle and common accompaniments. In adjusted models, higher maternal education attainment was correlated with higher start scores on Predominantly breastmilk, but lowest education attainment increased its adherence over time. Older mothers had higher start scores on Easy-to-prepare foods, but younger mothers had increased adherence over time. Chinese mothers had higher start scores on Predominantly breastmilk but greater adherence to GUIDELINES over time, while Indian mothers had higher start scores on Easy-to-prepare foods but greater adherence to Predominantly breastmilk with time (p < 0.05 for all). Changes in trajectories over time were small. Hence, dietary patterns established during weaning are strongly influenced by maternal socio-demographic factors and remain stable over the first year of life.

Contemporary genetic structure and postglacial demographic history of the black scorpionfish, Scorpaena porcus, in the Mediterranean and the Black Seas.

PubMed

Boissin, E; Micu, D; Janczyszyn-Le Goff, M; Neglia, V; Bat, L; Todorova, V; Panayotova, M; Kruschel, C; Macic, V; Milchakova, N; Keskin, Ç; Anastasopoulou, A; Nasto, I; Zane, L; Planes, S

2016-05-01

Understanding the distribution of genetic diversity in the light of past demographic events linked with climatic shifts will help to forecast evolutionary trajectories of ecosystems within the current context of climate change. In this study, mitochondrial sequences and microsatellite loci were analysed using traditional population genetic approaches together with Bayesian dating and the more recent approximate Bayesian computation scenario testing. The genetic structure and demographic history of a commercial fish, the black scorpionfish, Scorpaena porcus, was investigated throughout the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The results suggest that the species recently underwent population expansions, in both seas, likely concomitant with the warming period following the Last Glacial Maximum, 20 000 years ago. A weak contemporaneous genetic differentiation was identified between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. However, the genetic diversity was similar for populations of the two seas, suggesting a high number of colonizers entered the Black Sea during the interglacial period and/or the presence of a refugial population in the Black Sea during the glacial period. Finally, within seas, an east/west genetic differentiation in the Adriatic seems to prevail, whereas the Black Sea does not show any structured spatial genetic pattern of its population. Overall, these results suggest that the Black Sea is not that isolated from the Mediterranean, and both seas revealed similar evolutionary patterns related to climate change and changes in sea level. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exploitation dynamics of small fish stocks like Arctic cisco

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielsen, Jennifer L.

2004-01-01

Potential impacts to the Arctic cisco population fall into both demographic and behavioral categories. Possible demographic impacts include stock recruitment effects, limited escapement into marine habitats, and variable age-class reproductive success. Potential behavioral impacts involve migratory patterns, variable life histories, and strategies for seasonal feeding. Arctic cisco stocks are highly susceptible to over-exploitation due to our limited basic knowledge of the highly variable Arctic environment and the role they play in this dynamic ecosystem.Our knowledge of potential demographic changes is very limited, and it is necessary to determine the abundance and recruitment of the hypothesized Mackenzie River source population, the extent of the coastal migratory corridor, growth patterns, and coastal upwelling and mixing effects on population dynamics for this species. Information needed to answer some of the demographic questions includes basic evolutionary history and molecular genetics of Arctic cisco (for instance, are there contributions to the Arctic cisco stock from the Yukon?), what is the effective population size (i.e., breeding population size), and potential links to changes in climate. The basic behavioral questions include migratory and variable life history questions. For instance, the extent of movement back and forth between freshwater and the sea, age-specific differences in food web dynamics, and nearshore brackish and high salinity habitats are topics that should be studied. Life history data should be gathered to understand the variation in age at reproduction, salinity tolerance, scale and duration of the freshwater stage, survival, and adult migration. Both molecular and ecological tools should be integrated to manage the Arctic cisco stock(s), such as understanding global climate changes on patterns of harvest and recruitment, and the genetics of population structure and colonization. Perhaps other populations are contributing to the population within the Colville River other than only the Mackenzie River population. This needs further exploration. By examining otolith microchemistry, unique transitions from freshwater to sea can be identified for these stocks. This may shed light on why some fish arrive at the mouth of the Colville River, while others don’t.

Productivity, Social Networks and Net Communities in the Workplace

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asunda, Paul

2010-01-01

The 21st century workplace is being shaped by ever-changing technological innovations, shifting demographic patterns, globalization and power shifts, in addition to different economic players such as policymakers, employers, education and training institutions that shape the quality of the future workforce. In today's work environment,…

Broader context for social, economic, and cultural components

Treesearch

Patricia L. Winter; Jonathan W. Long; Frank K. Lake; Susan Charnley

2014-01-01

This chapter sets the context for the following sociocultural sections of the synthesis by providing information on the broader social, cultural, and economic patterns in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range. Demographic influences surrounding population change, including those accounted for through amenity migration, are examined. Social and cultural concerns...

The Impact of Classroom Diversity on Teachers' Perspectives of Their Schools as Workplaces.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Michael; Goldring, Ellen

Changing demographic patterns present teachers with students of diverse ethnic backgrounds, learning abilities, family structures, and linguistic traditions. This study assessed the impact of classroom diversity on Israeli teachers' perspectives of the their workplace. Generally favorable perceptions of multiculturalism in the abstract conflict…

Desegregation, Unitary Status and Vouchers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Patten, James J.; Shircliffe, Barbara

This paper discusses how trends in school racial desegregation suggest a move back toward segregation. Courts are more willing now to attribute these patterns of racial segregation to demographic changes in residential housing markets rather than to past vestiges of the segregated system as they had done in the past. School officials and community…

Public School Nursing Practice in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willgerodt, Mayumi A.; Brock, Douglas M.; Maughan, Erin D.

2018-01-01

School nursing practice has changed dramatically over the past 20 years, yet few nationally representative investigations describing the school nursing workforce have been conducted. The National School Nurse Workforce Study describes the demographic and school nursing practice patterns among self-reported public school nurses and the number and…

Migration, settlement change and health in post-apartheid South Africa: Triangulating health and demographic surveillance with national census data1

PubMed Central

COLLINSON, MARK A.; TOLLMAN, STEPHEN M.; KAHN, KATHLEEN

2010-01-01

Background World population growth will be increasingly concentrated in the urban areas of the developing world; however, some scholars caution against the oversimplification of African urbanization noting that there may be “counter-urbanization” and a prevailing pattern of circular rural–urban migration. The aim of the paper is to examine the ongoing urban transition in South Africa in the post-apartheid period, and to consider the health and social policy implications of prevailing migration patterns. Methods Two data sets were analysed, namely the South African national census of 2001 and the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system. A settlement-type transition matrix was constructed on the national data to show how patterns of settlement have changed in a five-year period. Using the sub-district data, permanent and temporary migration was characterized, providing migration rates by age and sex, and showing the distribution of origins and destinations. Findings The comparison of national and sub-district data highlight the following features: urban population growth, particularly in metropolitan areas, resulting from permanent and temporary migration; prevailing patterns of temporary, circular migration, and a changing gender balance in this form of migration; stepwise urbanization; and return migration from urban to rural areas. Conclusions Policy concerns include: rural poverty exacerbated by labour migration; explosive conditions for the transmission of HIV; labour migrants returning to die in rural areas; and the challenges for health information created by chronically ill migrants returning to rural areas to convalesce. Lastly, suggestions are made on how to address the dearth of relevant population information for policy-making in the fields of migration, settlement change and health. PMID:17676507

Migration, settlement change and health in post-apartheid South Africa: triangulating health and demographic surveillance with national census data.

PubMed

Collinson, Mark A; Tollman, Stephen M; Kahn, Kathleen

2007-08-01

World population growth will be increasingly concentrated in the urban areas of the developing world; however, some scholars caution against the oversimplification of African urbanization noting that there may be "counter-urbanization" and a prevailing pattern of circular rural-urban migration. The aim of the paper is to examine the ongoing urban transition in South Africa in the post-apartheid period, and to consider the health and social policy implications of prevailing migration patterns. Two data sets were analysed, namely the South African national census of 2001 and the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system. A settlement-type transition matrix was constructed on the national data to show how patterns of settlement have changed in a five-year period. Using the sub-district data, permanent and temporary migration was characterized, providing migration rates by age and sex, and showing the distribution of origins and destinations. The comparison of national and sub-district data highlight the following features: urban population growth, particularly in metropolitan areas, resulting from permanent and temporary migration; prevailing patterns of temporary, circular migration, and a changing gender balance in this form of migration; stepwise urbanization; and return migration from urban to rural areas. Policy concerns include: rural poverty exacerbated by labour migration; explosive conditions for the transmission of HIV; labour migrants returning to die in rural areas; and the challenges for health information created by chronically ill migrants returning to rural areas to convalesce. Lastly, suggestions are made on how to address the dearth of relevant population information for policy-making in the fields of migration, settlement change and health.

Psychological and Demographic Correlates of Career Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reitzle, Matthias; Korner, Astrid; Vondracek, Fred W.

2009-01-01

Recent years have witnessed a growing diversity of career patterns, resulting from the relative decline of stable employment. In the present study of 1368 employed and self-employed German adults career pattern diversity was assessed using nine pictograms. The goal was to identify psychological and demographic correlates of these patterns and to…

Changing demographics: what to watch for.

PubMed

Morrison, P A

1987-07-01

Four broad demographic transformations: 1) the population's reconfiguration into smaller household units, especially those comprised of persons living alone; 2) changing employment patterns, notably the shift of married women into paid employment and the resulting proliferation of dual-earner families; 3) transformations in the population's age composition; and 4) the geography of growth in terms of regions that will gain or lose population--can be expected to have a profound impact on opportunities and challenges facing the business sector. The number of future households is projected to increase from 88.6 million in 1986 to 101.5 million by 1996. The sharpest gains will be among households headed by persons ranging in age from the late 30s to the early 50s. The fastest growth through the year 2000 is expected to occur in the Mountain states of the US. Business economists should be alert to these demographic analyses both to spot emerging growth markets and to identify long-term strategic issues, especially as the labor market changes. It will be increasingly important to differentiate time-sensitive from price-sensitive consumers.

Domestication and human demographic history in South America.

PubMed

Perez, S Ivan; Postillone, María Bárbara; Rindel, Diego

2017-05-01

The early groups of hunter-gatherers who peopled South America faced significant ecological changes in their trophic niche for a relatively short period after the initial peopling. In particular, the incorporation of cultigens during the Holocene led to a wider trophic niche and probably to an increased carrying capacity of the environment. Here, we study the relationship between the incorporation of domestic resources during the Holocene and the demographic dynamics of human populations at a regional scale in South America. We employ mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), radiocarbon data and Bayesian methods to estimate differences in population size, human occupation and explore the demographic changes of human populations in three regions (i.e., South-Central Andes, Northwest, and South Patagonia). We also use archaeological evidence to infer the main diet changes in these regions. The absolute population size during the later Late Holocene was fifteen times larger in the South-Central Andes than in Northwest Patagonia, and two times larger in the latter region than in South Patagonia. The South-Central Andes display the earlier and more abrupt population growth, beginning about 9000 years BP, whereas Northwest Patagonia exhibits a more slow growth, beginning about 7000-7500 years BP. South Patagonia represents a later and slower population increase. In this work we uncovered a well-supported pattern of the demographic change in the populations from South-Central Andes and Patagonia, obtained on the basis of different data and quantitative approaches, which suggests that the incorporation of domestic resources was paramount for the demographic expansion of these populations during the Holocene. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

PubMed Central

Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

2012-01-01

Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess their relative contributions. PMID:23166666

Spatiotemporal Patterns, Monitoring Network Design, and Environmental Justice of Air Pollution in the Phoenix Metropolitan Region: A Landscape Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Ronald L.

Air pollution is a serious problem in most urban areas around the world, which has a number of negative ecological and human health impacts. As a result, it's vitally important to detect and characterize air pollutants to protect the health of the urban environment and our citizens. An important early step in this process is ensuring that the air pollution monitoring network is properly designed to capture the patterns of pollution and that all social demographics in the urban population are represented. An important aspect in characterizing air pollution patterns is scale in space and time which, along with pattern and process relationships, is a key subject in the field of landscape ecology. Thus, using multiple landscape ecological methods, this dissertation research begins by characterizing and quantifying the multi-scalar patterns of ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) in the Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan region. Results showed that pollution patterns are scale-dependent, O3 is a regionally-scaled pollutant at longer temporal scales, and PM10 is a locally-scaled pollutant with patterns sensitive to season. Next, this dissertation examines the monitoring network within Maricopa County. Using a novel multiscale indicator-based approach, the adequacy of the network was quantified by integrating inputs from various academic and government stakeholders. Furthermore, deficiencies were spatially defined and recommendations were made on how to strengthen the design of the network. A sustainability ranking system also provided new insight into the strengths and weaknesses of the network. Lastly, the study addresses the question of whether distinct social groups were experiencing inequitable exposure to pollutants - a key issue of distributive environmental injustice. A novel interdisciplinary method using multi-scalar ambient pollution data and hierarchical multiple regression models revealed environmental inequities between air pollutants and race, ethnicity, age, and socioeconomic classes. The results indicate that changing the scale of the analysis can change the equitable relationship between pollution and demographics. The scientific findings of the scale-dependent relationships among air pollution patterns, network design, and population demographics, brought to light through this study, can help policymakers make informed decisions for protecting the human health and the urban environment in the Phoenix metropolitan region and beyond.

The changing pattern and determinants of declining consanguinity in Jordan during 1990-2012.

PubMed

Islam, M Mazharul

2018-03-01

Consanguinity is a deep rooted cultural trait in Jordan. To examine the patterns and determinants of declining rates of consanguineous marriage in Jordan during 1990-2012 in the context of the changing pattern of socio-economic and demographic conditions. The data come from the 1990 and 2012 Jordan Population and Family Health Surveys (JPFHSs). A total of 6461 women in 1990 and 11,352 women in 2012 were successfully interviewed. Descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques were used for data analysis. Consanguinity was found to be widely practiced (35% in 2012) until recent times in Jordan. However, there has been a secular declining trend over the last few decades as the practice of consanguinity has declined from 56% in 1990 to 35% in 2012. Increasing age at marriage and female education, higher level of education of husbands, declining family size, increasing rate of urbanisation and female employment, exposure to mass media and higher economic status appeared as significant predictors of declining consanguinity in Jordan. The findings of this study support Goode's hypothesis of a decrease of consanguinity with modernisation. Although consanguinity is a deeply rooted cultural trend in Jordan, it is gradually losing ground due to modernisation and socio-demographic transition of the country.

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

PubMed Central

Landguth, Erin L.; Bull, C. Michael; Banks, Sam C.; Gardner, Michael G.; Driscoll, Don A.

2016-01-01

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus. We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity in N. stellatus. Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics. PMID:27009225

Ramadan, Pregnancy, Nutrition, and Epidemiology.

PubMed

Stein, Aryeh D

2018-05-05

Ramadan is observed by 1.6 billion Muslims. In a paper published this month that uses data from the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System site in Burkina Faso, it is found that experiencing Ramadan in early pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of child mortality. Ramadan exposes observant individuals to a specific pattern of nutrition and other behaviors, including changes in sleep patterns. How these behaviors might result in child mortality is not yet understood, and the findings reported in the paper should be replicated in other settings.

Amplitude of travelling front as inferred from 14C predicts levels of genetic admixture among European early farmers.

PubMed

Silva, Fabio; Vander Linden, Marc

2017-09-20

Large radiocarbon datasets have been analysed statistically to identify, on the one hand, the dynamics and tempo of dispersal processes and, on the other, demographic change. This is particularly true for the spread of farming practices in Neolithic Europe. Here we combine the two approaches and apply them to a new, extensive dataset of 14,535 radiocarbon dates for the Mesolithic and Neolithic periods across the Near East and Europe. The results indicate three distinct demographic regimes: one observed in or around the centre of farming innovation and involving a boost in carrying capacity; a second appearing in regions where Mesolithic populations were well established; and a third corresponding to large-scale migrations into previously essentially unoccupied territories, where the travelling front is readily identified. This spatio-temporal patterning linking demographic change with dispersal dynamics, as displayed in the amplitude of the travelling front, correlates and predicts levels of genetic admixture among European early farmers.

Exurban Development and its Environmental Impact on Land Use in Kurgan City, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrievskikh, Daria

Exurban communities as one of the forms of urban sprawl can cause significant changes in natural land cover. Exurban development refers to an expansion of communities located outside a city and its suburbs. One of the main reasons these settlements develop is a desire to live closer to nature with better ecological conditions. Exurbs often represent prosperous regions inhabited by people with high income. However, exurban development involves the human consumption of natural environments. Specifically, it directly affects community patterns, species patterns, and demographic patterns of surrounding ecosystems, as well as land use. Therefore, it is important to study the impact of exurban settlements on the natural environment. This study uses remote sensing imagery, Census data and primary data to analyze land cover change due to the emergence of exurban communities around Kurgan City, Russia, with an emphasis on the change of natural vegetation such as, forests in addition to human behavior.

Benefits communication: its impact on employee benefits satisfaction under flexible programs.

PubMed

Rabin, B R

1994-01-01

Using field data from a private organization in upstate New York, a large statistically significant portion of benefits satisfaction was explained by benefits communication, employee benefits choice and change patterns, and demographics. Users of the organization's benefits communication materials and employees reporting fewer unmet benefits needs are more satisfied.

Applied Research and the Transformation of College Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doughty, Howard A.

2015-01-01

Like everything else today, there is a changing pattern in education. Some obvious elements are education's social function, demographics, and technology. A fourth dimension is being added to function, audience, and technique, and that is research. Research is also being reorganized, and now it is becoming an issue in the colleges. When, for…

Moving Out and Marriage: What Do Young Adults Expect?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldscheider, Calvin; Goldscheider, Frances K.

Living independently before marriage is part of a broader pattern of family and demographic change characterizing modern societies since World War II. This study examined expectations about premarital residential independence among young adults. Data were obtained from 28,240 high school seniors who participated in the High School and Beyond study…

College Choice: Understanding Student Enrollment Behavior. ERIC Digest.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paulsen, Michael B.

This digest summarizes in a question and answer format a full length report of the same title. It addresses trends in college student enrollment patterns with an emphasis on behavior underlying student choice of college. Demographic changes and cuts in important sources of student financial aid brought significant enrollment declines to higher…

Day Service Provision for People with Intellectual Disabilities: A Case Study Mapping 15-Year Trends in Ireland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Padraic; McGilloway, Sinead; Barry, Sarah

2017-01-01

Background: Day services for people with intellectual disabilities are experiencing a global paradigm shift towards innovative person-centred models of care. This study maps changing trends in day service utilization to highlight how policy, emergent patterns and demographic trends influence service delivery. Methods: National intellectual…

Higher Education into the 1990s. A Discussion Document.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Department of Education and Science, London (England).

An analysis of Great Britain's higher education system, primarily between 1981 and 1994, considers the possible implication of demographic trends and how that pattern may change over the next 15 years. The purpose of the paper is to direct public attention to the issues and encourage debate rather than present discrete policy options. Planning…

Landscape-based population viability models demonstrate importance of strategic conservation planning for birds

Treesearch

Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; D. Todd Jones-Farland

2013-01-01

Efforts to conserve regional biodiversity in the face of global climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation will depend on approaches that consider population processes at multiple scales. By combining habitat and demographic modeling, landscape-based population viability models effectively relate small-scale habitat and landscape patterns to regional population...

Rising risk of type 2 diabetes among inhabitants of Jamnagar, Gujarat: A cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rohit; Prajapati, Pradeep Kumar

2015-01-01

Introduction: Undoubtedly, diabetes is an incremental threat for the world health and substantial evidence now suggest that diabetes is strongly associated with patients’ unhealthy lifestyle, behavioral patterns, and socioeconomic changes. Treatment modalities, in particular to this disease differs from patient to patient. In Ayurveda, this individuality is decided on the basis of Prakriti, Vaya, Bala, Desha etc., and hence it is essential to know these factors for successful management of diseases. Aim: To assess the role of demographic profile, changes in life style habits, dietary patterns, occupational and social background in increasing prevalence of type 2 diabete mellitus (DM) at Jamnagar region. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional survey study was conducted on randomly selected 350 diabetic patients of Jamnagar region. A survey proforma was prepared and detailed history of each patient fulfilling the diagnostic criteria was taken along with demographic profile. Observations and Conclusion: The obtained data reveals that, certain faulty dietary and life style regimes of this region are responsible in manifestation of DM. Its magnitude and low awareness warrants appropriate public health interventions for its effective control. PMID:26730132

An improved Brass correlational fertility model.

PubMed

Zhang, E; Chen, J

1995-01-01

Demographers have for years tried to establish a mathematical model capable of accurately describing patterns of fertility change. William Brass's Gompertz correlational fertility model is based upon a standard age-specific fertility pattern correlated to the age-specific fertility rate of the area under study with the purpose of simulating the actual age-specific fertility rate of the area. While the Brass correlational fertility model has solved many problems in quantitative studies of fertility and has been applied in population simulation and prediction, it has been unsatisfactory in analyzing fertility changes in China. The authors therefore developed a parity-specific correlational model to better reflect the situation of rapid fertility decline in China. This modified model better describes the impact of current family planning policy in China. Moreover, satisfactory results can be obtained by simulating and analyzing fertility in recent years, and major parameters can be identified by using demographically definite and readily manageable indicators. These indicators can clearly reflect the goals of the country's family planning policy, such as the average age at child-bearing, median age at child-bearing, early reproduction ratio, and percentage of the second child.

Depth distribution and abundance of a coral-associated reef fish: roles of recruitment and post-recruitment processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallhorn-West, Patrick F.; Bridge, Tom C. L.; Munday, Philip L.; Jones, Geoffrey P.

2017-03-01

The abundance of many reef fish species varies with depth, but the demographic processes influencing this pattern remain unclear. Furthermore, while the distribution of highly specialized reef fish often closely matches that of their habitat, it is unclear whether changes in distribution patterns over depth are the result of changes in habitat availability or independent depth-related changes in population parameters such as recruitment and mortality. Here, we show that depth-related patterns in the distribution of the coral-associated goby, Paragobiodon xanthosoma, are strongly related to changes in recruitment and performance (growth and survival). Depth-stratified surveys showed that while the coral host, Seriatopora hystrix, extended into deeper water (>20 m), habitat use by P. xanthosoma declined with depth and both adult and juvenile P. xanthosoma were absent below 20 m. Standardization of S. hystrix abundance at three depths (5, 15 and 30 m) demonstrated that recruitment of P. xanthosoma was not determined by the availability of its habitat. Reciprocal transplantation of P. xanthosoma to S. hystrix colonies among three depths (5, 15 and 30 m) then established that individual performance (survival and growth) was lowest in deeper water; mortality was three times higher and growth greatly reduced in individuals transplanted to 30 m. Individuals collected from 15 m also exhibited growth rates 50% lower than fish from shallow depths. These results indicate that the depth distribution of this species is limited not by the availability of its coral habitat, but by demographic costs associated with living in deeper water.

Increases in residential and energy development are associated with reductions in recruitment for a large ungulate.

PubMed

Johnson, Heather E; Sushinsky, Jessica R; Holland, Andrew; Bergman, Eric J; Balzer, Trevor; Garner, James; Reed, Sarah E

2017-02-01

Land-use change due to anthropogenic development is pervasive across the globe and commonly associated with negative consequences for biodiversity. While land-use change has been linked to shifts in the behavior and habitat-use patterns of wildlife species, little is known about its influence on animal population dynamics, despite the relevance of such information for conservation. We conducted the first broad-scale investigation correlating temporal patterns of land-use change with the demographic rates of mule deer, an iconic species in the western United States experiencing wide-scale population declines. We employed a unique combination of long-term (1980-2010) data on residential and energy development across western Colorado, in conjunction with congruent data on deer recruitment, to quantify annual changes in land-use and correlate those changes with annual indices of demographic performance. We also examined annual variation in weather conditions, which are well recognized to influence ungulate productivity, and provided a basis for comparing the relative strength of different covariates in their association with deer recruitment. Using linear mixed models, we found that increasing residential and energy development within deer habitat were correlated with declining recruitment rates, particularly within seasonal winter ranges. Residential housing had two times the magnitude of effect of any other factor we investigated, and energy development had an effect size similar to key weather variables known to be important to ungulate dynamics. This analysis is the first to correlate a demographic response in mule deer with residential and energy development at large spatial extents relevant to population performance, suggesting that further increases in these development types on deer ranges are not compatible with the goal of maintaining highly productive deer populations. Our results underscore the significance of expanding residential development on mule deer populations, a factor that has received little research attention in recent years, despite its rapidly increasing footprint across the landscape. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model

PubMed Central

Mena, Carlos F.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; Xiaozheng, Yao; Malanson, George P.

2010-01-01

This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways. PMID:24436501

Evidence that disease-induced population decline changes genetic structure and alters dispersal patterns in the Tasmanian devil

PubMed Central

Lachish, S; Miller, K J; Storfer, A; Goldizen, A W; Jones, M E

2011-01-01

Infectious disease has been shown to be a major cause of population declines in wild animals. However, there remains little empirical evidence on the genetic consequences of disease-mediated population declines, or how such perturbations might affect demographic processes such as dispersal. Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) has resulted in the rapid decline of the Tasmanian devil, Sarcophilus harrisii, and threatens to cause extinction. Using 10 microsatellite DNA markers, we compared genetic diversity and structure before and after DFTD outbreaks in three Tasmanian devil populations to assess the genetic consequences of disease-induced population decline. We also used both genetic and demographic data to investigate dispersal patterns in Tasmanian devils along the east coast of Tasmania. We observed a significant increase in inbreeding (FIS pre/post-disease −0.030/0.012, P<0.05; relatedness pre/post-disease 0.011/0.038, P=0.06) in devil populations after just 2–3 generations of disease arrival, but no detectable change in genetic diversity. Furthermore, although there was no subdivision apparent among pre-disease populations (θ=0.005, 95% confidence interval (CI) −0.003 to 0.017), we found significant genetic differentiation among populations post-disease (θ=0.020, 0.010–0.027), apparently driven by a combination of selection and altered dispersal patterns of females in disease-affected populations. We also show that dispersal is male-biased in devils and that dispersal distances follow a typical leptokurtic distribution. Our results show that disease can result in genetic and demographic changes in host populations over few generations and short time scales. Ongoing management of Tasmanian devils must now attempt to maintain genetic variability in this species through actions designed to reverse the detrimental effects of inbreeding and subdivision in disease-affected populations. PMID:20216571

Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects.

PubMed

Jaramillo, Eduardo; Dugan, Jenifer E; Hubbard, David M; Contreras, Heraldo; Duarte, Cristian; Acuña, Emilio; Schoeman, David S

2017-01-01

Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal ecosystem, and for one species, across hemispheres in this space-for-time substitution, suggests predictions of ecosystem responses to thermal effects of climate change may potentially be generalised, with important implications for coastal conservation.

Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects

PubMed Central

Dugan, Jenifer E.; Hubbard, David M.; Contreras, Heraldo; Duarte, Cristian; Acuña, Emilio; Schoeman, David S.

2017-01-01

Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal ecosystem, and for one species, across hemispheres in this space-for-time substitution, suggests predictions of ecosystem responses to thermal effects of climate change may potentially be generalised, with important implications for coastal conservation. PMID:28481897

Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity.

PubMed

Davies, Ian D; Cary, Geoffrey J; Landguth, Erin L; Lindenmayer, David B; Banks, Sam C

2016-02-01

Exploring interactions between ecological disturbance, species' abundances and community composition provides critical insights for ecological dynamics. While disturbance is also potentially an important driver of landscape genetic patterns, the mechanisms by which these patterns may arise by selective and neutral processes are not well-understood. We used simulation to evaluate the relative importance of disturbance regime components, and their interaction with demographic and dispersal processes, on the distribution of genetic diversity across landscapes. We investigated genetic impacts of variation in key components of disturbance regimes and spatial patterns that are likely to respond to climate change and land management, including disturbance size, frequency, and severity. The influence of disturbance was mediated by dispersal distance and, to a limited extent, by birth rate. Nevertheless, all three disturbance regime components strongly influenced spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity within subpopulations, and were associated with changes in genetic structure. Furthermore, disturbance-induced changes in temporal population dynamics and the spatial distribution of populations across the landscape resulted in disrupted isolation by distance patterns among populations. Our results show that forecast changes in disturbance regimes have the potential to cause major changes to the distribution of genetic diversity within and among populations. We highlight likely scenarios under which future changes to disturbance size, severity, or frequency will have the strongest impacts on population genetic patterns. In addition, our results have implications for the inference of biological processes from genetic data, because the effects of dispersal on genetic patterns were strongly mediated by disturbance regimes.

Modeling Effects of Local Extinctions on Culture Change and Diversity in the Paleolithic

PubMed Central

Premo, L. S.; Kuhn, Steven L.

2010-01-01

The persistence of early stone tool technologies has puzzled archaeologists for decades. Cognitively based explanations, which presume either lack of ability to innovate or extreme conformism, do not account for the totality of the empirical patterns. Following recent research, this study explores the effects of demographic factors on rates of culture change and diversification. We investigate whether the appearance of stability in early Paleolithic technologies could result from frequent extinctions of local subpopulations within a persistent metapopulation. A spatially explicit agent-based model was constructed to test the influence of local extinction rate on three general cultural patterns that archaeologists might observe in the material record: total diversity, differentiation among spatially defined groups, and the rate of cumulative change. The model shows that diversity, differentiation, and the rate of cumulative cultural change would be strongly affected by local extinction rates, in some cases mimicking the results of conformist cultural transmission. The results have implications for understanding spatial and temporal patterning in ancient material culture. PMID:21179418

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E; Verdery, Ashton M; Rindfuss, Ronald R; Walsh, Stephen J; Malanson, George P; Mucha, Peter J; Frizzelle, Brian G; McDaniel, Philip M; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

2016-09-01

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, 'normal' scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

2016-01-01

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. PMID:27594725

Effects of Mitochondrial DNA Rate Variation on Reconstruction of Pleistocene Demographic History in a Social Avian Species, Pomatostomus superciliosus

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Blackmore, Caroline J.; Rourke, Meaghan; Christidis, Les

2014-01-01

Mitochondrial sequence data is often used to reconstruct the demographic history of Pleistocene populations in an effort to understand how species have responded to past climate change events. However, departures from neutral equilibrium conditions can confound evolutionary inference in species with structured populations or those that have experienced periods of population expansion or decline. Selection can affect patterns of mitochondrial DNA variation and variable mutation rates among mitochondrial genes can compromise inferences drawn from single markers. We investigated the contribution of these factors to patterns of mitochondrial variation and estimates of time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for two clades in a co-operatively breeding avian species, the white-browed babbler Pomatostomus superciliosus. Both the protein-coding ND3 gene and hypervariable domain I control region sequences showed departures from neutral expectations within the superciliosus clade, and a two-fold difference in TMRCA estimates. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis provided evidence of departure from a strict clock model of molecular evolution in domain I, leading to an over-estimation of TMRCA for the superciliosus clade at this marker. Our results suggest mitochondrial studies that attempt to reconstruct Pleistocene demographic histories should rigorously evaluate data for departures from neutral equilibrium expectations, including variation in evolutionary rates across multiple markers. Failure to do so can lead to serious errors in the estimation of evolutionary parameters and subsequent demographic inferences concerning the role of climate as a driver of evolutionary change. These effects may be especially pronounced in species with complex social structures occupying heterogeneous environments. We propose that environmentally driven differences in social structure may explain observed differences in evolutionary rate of domain I sequences, resulting from longer than expected retention times for matriarchal lineages in the superciliosus clade. PMID:25181547

Retinoblastoma incidence patterns in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program.

PubMed

Wong, Jeannette R; Tucker, Margaret A; Kleinerman, Ruth A; Devesa, Susan S

2014-04-01

IMPORTANCE Several studies have found no temporal or demographic differences in the incidence of retinoblastoma except for age at diagnosis, whereas other studies have reported variations in incidence by sex and race/ethnicity. OBJECTIVE To examine updated US retinoblastoma incidence patterns by sex, age at diagnosis, laterality, race/ethnicity, and year of diagnosis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) databases were examined for retinoblastoma incidence patterns by demographic and tumor characteristics. We studied 721 children in SEER 18 registries, 659 in SEER 13 registries, and 675 in SEER 9 registries. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incidence rates, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and annual percent changes in rates. RESULTS During 2000-2009 in SEER 18, there was a significant excess of total retinoblastoma among boys compared with girls (IRR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.36), in contrast to earlier reports of a female predominance. Bilateral retinoblastoma among white Hispanic boys was significantly elevated relative to white non-Hispanic boys (IRR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.22 to 2.79) and white Hispanic girls (IRR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.91) because of less rapid decreases in bilateral rates since the 1990s among white Hispanic boys than among the other groups. Retinoblastoma rates among white non-Hispanics decreased significantly since 1992 among those younger than 1 year and since 1998 among those with bilateral disease. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Although changes in the availability of prenatal screening practices for retinoblastoma may have contributed to these incidence patterns, further research is necessary to determine their actual effect on the changing incidence of retinoblastoma in the US population. In addition, consistent with other cancers, an excess of retinoblastoma diagnosed in boys suggests a potential effect of sex on cancer origin.

Population structure and demographic history of a tropical lowland rainforest tree species Shorea parvifolia (Dipterocarpaceae) from Southeastern Asia.

PubMed

Iwanaga, Hiroko; Teshima, Kosuke M; Khatab, Ismael A; Inomata, Nobuyuki; Finkeldey, Reiner; Siregar, Iskandar Z; Siregar, Ulfah J; Szmidt, Alfred E

2012-07-01

Distribution of tropical rainforests in Southeastern Asia has changed over geo-logical time scale, due to movement of tectonic plates and/or global climatic changes. Shorea parvifolia is one of the most common tropical lowland rainforest tree species in Southeastern Asia. To infer population structure and demographic history of S. parvifolia, as indicators of temporal changes in the distribution and extent of tropical rainforest in this region, we studied levels and patterns of nucleotide polymorphism in the following five nuclear gene regions: GapC, GBSSI, PgiC, SBE2, and SODH. Seven populations from peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and eastern Borneo were included in the analyses. STRUCTURE analysis revealed that the investigated populations are divided into two groups: Sumatra-Malay and Borneo. Furthermore, each group contained one admixed population. Under isolation with migration model, divergence of the two groups was estimated to occur between late Pliocene (2.6 MYA) and middle Pleistocene (0.7 MYA). The log-likelihood ratio tests of several demographic models strongly supported model with population expansion and low level of migration after divergence of the Sumatra-Malay and Borneo groups. The inferred demographic history of S. parvifolia suggested the presence of a scarcely forested land bridge on the Sunda Shelf during glacial periods in the Pleistocene and predominance of tropical lowland rainforest at least in Sumatra and eastern Borneo.

Towards an Employment-Oriented Training Policy: An Agenda for Action. Discussion Paper No. 60.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kanawaty, George; Castro, Claudio de Moura

Training systems are facing three basic considerations: (1) adjustment to demographic trends such as the population explosion in developing countries, the aging of the work force in developed countries, and the increased participation of women in economic activities; (2) changing patterns of demand, such as lower rates of growth, restructuring of…

Environmental imperatives reconsidered: demographic crises in western North America during the medieval climatic anomaly.

PubMed

Jones, T L; Brown, G M; Raab, L M; McVickar, J L; Spaulding, W G; Kennett, D J; York, A; Wlaker, P L

1999-04-01

Review of late Holocene paleoenvironmental and cultural sequences from four regions of western North America show striking correlations between drought and changes in subsistence, population, exchange, health, and interpersonal violence during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (A.D. 800-1350). While ultimate causality is difficult to identify in the archaeological record, synchrony of the environmental and cultural changes and the negative character of many human responses--increased interpersonal violence, deterioration of long-distance exchange relationships, and regional abandonments--suggest widespread demographic crises caused by decreased environmental productivity. The medieval droughts occurred at a unique juncture in the demographic history of western North America when unusually large populations of both hunter-gathers and agriculturalists had evolved highly intensified economies that put them in unprecedented ecological jeopardy. Long-term patterns in the archaeological record are inconsistent with the predicted outcomes of simple adaptation or continuous economic intensification, suggesting that in this instance environmental dynamics played a major role in cultural transformations across a wide expanse of western North America among groups with diverse subsistence strategies. These events suggest that environment should not be overlooked as a potential cause of prehistoric culture change.

Do Online Learning Patterns Exhibit Regional and Demographic Differences?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsieh, Tsui-Chuan; Yang, Chyan

2012-01-01

This paper used a multi-level latent class model to evaluate whether online learning patterns exhibit regional differences and demographics. This study discovered that the Internet learning pattern consists of five segments, and the region of Taiwan is divided into two segments and further found that both the user and the regional segments are…

Women's Retirement Expectations: How Stable Are They?

PubMed Central

Hardy, Melissa A.

2009-01-01

Objective Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Women, we examine between- and within-person differences in expected retirement age as a key element of the retirement planning process. The expectation typologies of 1,626 women born between 1923 and 1937 were classified jointly on the basis of specificity and consistency. Methods Latent class analysis was used to determine retirement expectation patterns over a 7-year span. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were employed to estimate the effects of demographic and status characteristics on the likelihood of reporting 4 distinct longitudinal patterns of retirement expectations. Results Substantial heterogeneity in reports of expected retirement age between and within individuals over the 7-year span was found. Demographic and status characteristics, specifically age, race, marital status, job tenure, and recent job change, sorted respondents into different retirement expectation patterns. Conclusions The frequent within-person fluctuations and substantial between-person heterogeneity in retirement expectations indicate uncertainty and variability in both expectations and process of expectation formation. Variability in respondents' reports suggests that studying retirement expectations at multiple time points better captures the dynamics of preretirement planning. PMID:19176483

Psychosocial mediators of change in physical activity in the Welsh national exercise referral scheme: secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Littlecott, Hannah J; Moore, Graham F; Moore, Laurence; Murphy, Simon

2014-08-27

While an increasing number of randomised controlled trials report impacts of exercise referral schemes (ERS) on physical activity, few have investigated the mechanisms through which increases in physical activity are produced. This study examines whether a National Exercise Referral Scheme (NERS) in Wales is associated with improvements in autonomous motivation, self-efficacy and social support, and whether change in physical activity is mediated by change in these psychosocial processes. A pragmatic randomised controlled trial of NERS across 12 LHBs in Wales. Questionnaires measured demographic data and physical activity at baseline. Participants (N = 2160) with depression, anxiety or CHD risk factors were referred by health professionals and randomly assigned to control or intervention. At six months psychological process measures were collected by questionnaire. At 12 months physical activity was assessed by 7 Day PAR telephone interview. Regressions tested intervention effects on psychosocial variables, physical activity before and after adjusting for mediators and socio demographic patterning. Significant intervention effects were found for autonomous motivation and social support for exercise at 6 months. No intervention effect was observed for self-efficacy. The data are consistent with a hypothesis of partial mediation of the intervention effect by autonomous motivation. Analysis of moderators showed significant improvements in relative autonomy in all subgroups. The greatest improvements in autonomous motivation were observed among patients who were least active at baseline. The present study offered key insights into psychosocial processes of change in an exercise referral scheme, with effects on physical activity mediated by autonomous motivation. Findings support the use of self-determination theory as a framework for ERS. Further research is required to explain socio-demographic patterning in responses to ERS, with changes in motivation occurring among all sub-groups of participants, though not always leading to higher adherence or behavioural change. This highlights the importance of socio-ecological approaches to developing and evaluating behaviour change interventions, which consider factors beyond the individual, including conditions in which improved motivation does or does not produce behavioural change. ISRCTN47680448.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics.

PubMed

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500  m ) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km. PMID:28878987

A demographic-economic explanation of political stability: Mauritius as a microcosm.

PubMed

Lempert, D

1987-06-01

"This paper examines current models of economic and political development--social modernization theory, political and economic characteristics of stable regimes, and cross country analysis of political stability--and tests them on the Indian Ocean Island of Mauritius. The analysis continues with a causal explanation for political stability in Mauritius' recent history, derived from an examination of economic policies and demographic patterns. Political change in Mauritius over the past sixty years seems to be explained best by a model for political stability which integrates specific economic and demographic factors. The model, applicable to development in other third world nations, revises Malthus' conclusion that population and economic conditions move in an oscillatory relationship and replaces it with a more comprehensive theory, suggesting that political stability is a function of both economic development and a repeating cyclical relationship between economics and population." excerpt

Potential (Mis)match? Marriage Markets Amidst Sociodemographic Change in India, 2005-2050.

PubMed

Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan

2015-02-01

We explore the impact of sociodemographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities-contemporary patterns by age, contemporary patterns by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries--to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: (1) female deficit in sex ratios at birth; (2) declining birth cohort size; (3) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRBs) in India's population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India's population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differences and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005-2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to multistate population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today's age patterns of marriage are viewed against age/sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women--particularly those with higher education--experience a more salient rise in nonmarriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns toward greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in nonmarriage.

Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2018-02-01

Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

Structured models of infectious disease: inference with discrete data

PubMed Central

Metcalf, C.J.E.; Lessler, J.; Klepac, P.; Morice, A.; Grenfell, B.T.; Bjørnstad, O.N.

2014-01-01

The usage of structured population models can make substantial contributions to public health, particularly for infections where clinical outcomes vary over age. There are three theoretical challenges in implementing such analyses: i) developing an appropriate framework that models both demographic and epidemiological transitions; ii) parameterizing the framework, where parameters may be based on data ranging from the biological course of infection, basic patterns of human demography, specific characteristics of population growth, and details of vaccination regimes implemented; and iii) evaluating public health strategies in the face of changing human demography. We illustrate the general approach by developing a model of rubella in Costa Rica. The demographic profile of this infection is a crucial aspect of its public health impact, and we use a transient perturbation analysis to explore the impact of changing human demography on immunization strategies implemented. PMID:22178687

Dietary patterns and their association with sociodemographic characteristics and perceived academic stress of college students in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Fabián, Carla; Pagán, Ideliz; Ríos, Josué L; Betancourt, Jesmari; Cruz, Sonia Y; González, Anaisa M; Palacios, Cristina; González, Michael J; Rivera-Soto, Winna T

2013-03-01

University students face academic responsibilities that may produce stress, which may lead to changes in dietary patterns (DPs). These changed patterns can become dysfunctional, often resulting in a negative impact on the health of the stressed student. Little is known about DPs in college students in Puerto Rico (PR). The purpose of this study was to describe the DPs of college students in PR and the association of these patterns with socio-demographic characteristics and perceived academic stress. This retrospective epidemiological study investigated self-reported DPs in a representative sample of 275 college students, in relation to socio-demographic characteristics, body composition (BC), and perceived academic stress; a Diet Quality Index was developed using the USDA Food Patterns for 2010 to determine whether their DPs were adequate or inadequate. Most of the participating students were female (67.6%), ranged from 21 to 30 years old (88%), lived in low household incomes (42.7%), and had healthy weights (56.4%). Most of the students perceived the stress levels as being moderate (60.7%). Most had diets that were below the dietary recommendations for grains, fruits, vegetables, dairy products, and protein, whereas fat consumption was adequate. Overall, most had inadequate DPs (62%). DP was significantly associated with age (p < 0.05); older students had better DPs than did younger students. In terms of the different schools (p < 0.05), those students from the School of Medicine and those from the School of Public Health had better DPs than did the students from the other schools. DP was not associated with income, gender, BMI, stress level, or course load. The majority of the students had inadequate DPs, which inadequacy was associated with both the age of the student and the school that he or she attended.

Patterns of Z chromosome divergence among Heliconius species highlight the importance of historical demography.

PubMed

Van Belleghem, Steven M; Baquero, Margarita; Papa, Riccardo; Salazar, Camilo; McMillan, W Owen; Counterman, Brian A; Jiggins, Chris D; Martin, Simon H

2018-03-22

Sex chromosomes are disproportionately involved in reproductive isolation and adaptation. In support of such a "large-X" effect, genome scans between recently diverged populations and species pairs often identify distinct patterns of divergence on the sex chromosome compared to autosomes. When measures of divergence between populations are higher on the sex chromosome compared to autosomes, such patterns could be interpreted as evidence for faster divergence on the sex chromosome, that is "faster-X", barriers to gene flow on the sex chromosome. However, demographic changes can strongly skew divergence estimates and are not always taken into consideration. We used 224 whole-genome sequences representing 36 populations from two Heliconius butterfly clades (H. erato and H. melpomene) to explore patterns of Z chromosome divergence. We show that increased divergence compared to equilibrium expectations can in many cases be explained by demographic change. Among Heliconius erato populations, for instance, population size increase in the ancestral population can explain increased absolute divergence measures on the Z chromosome compared to the autosomes, as a result of increased ancestral Z chromosome genetic diversity. Nonetheless, we do identify increased divergence on the Z chromosome relative to the autosomes in parapatric or sympatric species comparisons that imply postzygotic reproductive barriers. Using simulations, we show that this is consistent with reduced gene flow on the Z chromosome, perhaps due to greater accumulation of incompatibilities. Our work demonstrates the importance of taking demography into account to interpret patterns of divergence on the Z chromosome, but nonetheless provides evidence to support the Z chromosome as a strong barrier to gene flow in incipient Heliconius butterfly species. © 2018 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B,; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.

2018-01-01

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.

Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniveton, Dominic R.; Smith, Christopher D.; Black, Richard

2012-06-01

Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. ). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork. Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system. Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.

Who Gets What? Is Improved Access to Basic Education Pro-Poor in Sub-Saharan Africa?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewin, Keith M.; Sabates, Ricardo

2012-01-01

This paper explores changing patterns of access to basic education in six Sub-Saharan Africa countries using data from Demographic and Health Surveys at two points in time. In general the analysis confirms that participation of children in schooling has increased over the last decade. However, access to education remains strongly associated with…

The Financial Implications of Changing Patterns of Nonpublic School Operations in Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Dean Wilbur J.; And Others

Data for use in the development of sound public policies for financing education in the United States are provided. Chapter I deals with enrollment trends relating to urban public and nonpublic schools with a discussion of demographically related elements such as housing, migration, and race. Enrollment data is broken down by years, sponsors,…

Different histories but similar genetic diversity and structure for black walnut in Indiana and Missouri

Treesearch

Erin R. Victory; Jeffrey C. Glaubitz; Jennifer A. Fike; Olin E. Rhodes; Keith E. Woeste

2008-01-01

Missouri and Indiana have markedly different histories of glaciation and recolonization by forest trees. These states also differ in land use patterns and degree of anthropogenic landscape change such as forest fragmentation. To determine the overall effects of these and other demographic differences on the levels of genetic diversity and structure in black walnut (...

UK University Leaders at the Turn of the 21st Century: Changing Patterns in Their Socio-Demographic Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breakwell, Glynis M.; Tytherleigh, Michelle Y.

2008-01-01

While not the only title used by UK university leaders, the term Vice Chancellor will be used throughout this paper to include the other titles used (including Rector, Provost, Principal and President). According to data obtained pre-1997, UK Vice Chancellors (VCs) were predominantly scientists, largely former professors, Pro-VCs or deputy…

Shifting Quaternary migration patterns in the Bahamian archipelago: Evidence from the Zamia pumila complex at the northern limits of the Caribbean island biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Salas-Leiva, Dayana E; Meerow, Alan W; Calonje, Michael; Francisco-Ortega, Javier; Griffith, M Patrick; Nakamura, Kyoko; Sánchez, Vanessa; Knowles, Lindy; Knowles, David

2017-05-01

The Bahamas archipelago is formed by young, tectonically stable carbonate banks that harbor direct geological evidence of global ice-volume changes. We sought to detect signatures of major changes on gene flow patterns and reconstruct the phylogeographic history of the monophyletic Zamia pumila complex across the Bahamas. Nuclear molecular markers with both high and low mutation rates were used to capture two different time scale signatures and test several gene flow and demographic hypotheses. Single-copy nuclear genes unveiled apparent ancestral admixture on Andros, suggesting a significant role of this island as main hub of diversity of the archipelago. We detected demographic and spatial expansion of the Zamia pumila complex on both paleo-provinces around the Piacenzian (Pliocene)/Gelasian (Pleistocene). Populations evidenced signatures of different migration models that have occurred at two different times. Populations on Long Island ( Z. lucayana ) may either represent a secondary colonization of the Bahamas by Zamia or a rapid and early-divergence event of at least one population on the Bahamas. Despite changes in migration patterns with global climate, expected heterozygosity with both marker systems remains within the range reported for cycads, but with significant levels of increased inbreeding detected by the microsatellites. This finding is likely associated with reduced gene flow between and within paleo-provinces, accompanied by genetic drift, as rising seas enforced isolation. Our study highlights the importance of the maintenance of the predominant direction of genetic exchange and the role of overseas dispersion among the islands during climate oscillations. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

Recent trends in human migrations: the case of the Venezuelan Andes.

PubMed

Suarez, M M; Torrealba, R

1982-01-01

Changes in world capitalism caused prices of traditional raw materials to fall and new energy demands to arise at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century. The Andean countries witnessed the fall in the value of their exports and began to receive large flows of foreign investment in mining and industry. Consequently, urban economies were strengthened and demographic patterns were changed. This led to the internal migrations and to a process of social change. These consequences are summarized from relevant studies focusing on Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela. Since the 1960s a compendium of information has become available which highlights the causes of the migration, migration patterns, the composition of migratory movements, and the mechanisms that the migrant uses to establish himself/herself in the city. Preston (1969) distinguished 2 migratory patterns in Ecuador: rural to urban, with migratory flows from the rural areas to urban centers and new industrial cities that experienced development and high demand for unskilled labor at comparatively high wages: and rural to rural, based on the movement of population from depressed rural areas to other areas in which programs for colonization or commercial agriculture have been promoted. In a study of Colombia, McGreevey (1968) identifies the lack of cultivatable land, rural violence in certain departments, and other economic and family causes as the principal factors that induced migrations to the cities. The study emphasizes that the predominant model of movement relates to "fill in" migration. The spatial mobility of the Venezuelan Andean population was initially outlined in a voluminous report on economic and social problems of the region (1954). The study indicates that during the intercensal period 1941-50 cities grew much more rapidly than rural "municipos" and that the drive to find employment and earn a living were the most important motives in the movement of peasants to the cities. All of the studies identified that use demographic, economic, or phychosocial approaches have provided partial explanations of the current status of Andean migrations. The explanations they offer, by not transcending the current reality of the migrants, overlook the historical traits of internal migration. Migratory flows do not spring up suddenly. They result from specific socio-political circumstances which, when closely linked to demographic evidence, serve as a basis for understanding the process. Review of studies on internal migration in the Northern Andes, as presented here, reveals a series of distinguishing characteristics: there are 5 migratory patterns--rural to rural, rural to urban, urban to urban, seasonal worker migration, and return migration, and the predominant pattern has been rural to urban; the demographic data show the importance of rural migrants to urban growth in the region and a complementary loss of population in the rural areas; depopulation of the countryside has been selective; and there is a marked disparity in employment remuneration between rural and urban areas.

A parsimonious characterization of change in global age-specific and total fertility rates

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study aims to understand trends in global fertility from 1950-2010 though the analysis of age-specific fertility rates. This approach incorporates both the overall level, as when the total fertility rate is modeled, and different patterns of age-specific fertility to examine the relationship between changes in age-specific fertility and fertility decline. Singular value decomposition is used to capture the variation in age-specific fertility curves while reducing the number of dimensions, allowing curves to be described nearly fully with three parameters. Regional patterns and trends over time are evident in parameter values, suggesting this method provides a useful tool for considering fertility decline globally. The second and third parameters were analyzed using model-based clustering to examine patterns of age-specific fertility over time and place; four clusters were obtained. A country’s demographic transition can be traced through time by membership in the different clusters, and regional patterns in the trajectories through time and with fertility decline are identified. PMID:29377899

Climatic conditions produce contrasting influences on demographic traits in a long-distance Arctic migrant.

PubMed

Cleasby, Ian R; Bodey, Thomas W; Vigfusdottir, Freydis; McDonald, Jenni L; McElwaine, Graham; Mackie, Kerry; Colhoun, Kendrew; Bearhop, Stuart

2017-03-01

The manner in which patterns of variation and interactions among demographic rates contribute to population growth rate (λ) is key to understanding how animal populations will respond to changing climatic conditions. Migratory species are likely to be particularly sensitive to climatic conditions as they experience a range of different environments throughout their annual cycle. However, few studies have provided fully integrated demographic analyses of migratory populations in response to changing climatic conditions. Here, we employed integrated population models to demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a short but critical period play a central role in the demography of a long-distance migrant, the light-bellied Brent goose (Branta bernicla hrota). Female survival was positively associated with June North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, whereas male survival was not. In contrast, breeding productivity was negatively associated with June NAO, suggesting a trade-off between female survival and reproductive success. Both adult female and adult male survival showed low temporal variation, whereas there was high temporal variation in recruitment and breeding productivity. In addition, while annual population growth was positively correlated with annual breeding productivity, a sensitivity analysis revealed that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Our results demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a relatively short-time window at the start of the breeding season play a critical role in shaping the demography of a long-distant Arctic migrant. Crucially, different demographic rates responded in opposing directions to climatic variation, emphasising the need for integrated analysis of multiple demographic traits when understanding population dynamics. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Primary care physician shortages could be eliminated through use of teams, nonphysicians, and electronic communication.

PubMed

Green, Linda V; Savin, Sergei; Lu, Yina

2013-01-01

Most existing estimates of the shortage of primary care physicians are based on simple ratios, such as one physician for every 2,500 patients. These estimates do not consider the impact of such ratios on patients' ability to get timely access to care. They also do not quantify the impact of changing patient demographics on the demand side and alternative methods of delivering care on the supply side. We used simulation methods to provide estimates of the number of primary care physicians needed, based on a comprehensive analysis considering access, demographics, and changing practice patterns. We show that the implementation of some increasingly popular operational changes in the ways clinicians deliver care-including the use of teams or "pods," better information technology and sharing of data, and the use of nonphysicians-have the potential to offset completely the increase in demand for physician services while improving access to care, thereby averting a primary care physician shortage.

Associations between dietary patterns, socio-demographic factors and anthropometric measurements in adult New Zealanders: an analysis of data from the 2008/09 New Zealand Adult Nutrition Survey.

PubMed

Beck, K L; Jones, B; Ullah, I; McNaughton, S A; Haslett, S J; Stonehouse, W

2018-06-01

To investigate associations between dietary patterns, socio-demographic factors and anthropometric measurements in adult New Zealanders. Dietary patterns were identified using factor analysis in adults 15 years plus (n = 4657) using 24-h diet recall data from the 2008/09 New Zealand Adult Nutrition Survey. Multivariate regression was used to investigate associations between dietary patterns and age, gender and ethnicity. After controlling for demographic factors, associations between dietary patterns and food insecurity, deprivation, education, and smoking were investigated. Associations between dietary patterns and body mass index and waist circumference were examined adjusting for demographic factors, smoking and energy intake. Two dietary patterns were identified. 'Healthy' was characterised by breakfast cereal, low fat milk, soy and rice milk, soup and stock, yoghurt, bananas, apples, other fruit and tea, and low intakes of pies and pastries, potato chips, white bread, takeaway foods, soft drinks, beer and wine. 'Traditional' was characterised by beef, starchy vegetables, green vegetables, carrots, tomatoes, savoury sauces, regular milk, cream, sugar, tea and coffee, and was low in takeaway foods. The 'healthy' pattern was positively associated with age, female gender, New Zealand European or other ethnicity, and a secondary school qualification, and inversely associated with smoking, food insecurity, area deprivation, BMI and waist circumference. The 'traditional' pattern was positively associated with age, male gender, smoking, food insecurity and inversely associated with a secondary school qualification. A 'Healthy' dietary pattern was associated with higher socio-economic status and reduced adiposity, while the 'traditional' pattern was associated with lower socio-economic status.

The changing demographic, legal, and technological contexts of political representation.

PubMed

Forest, Benjamin

2005-10-25

Three developments have created challenges for political representation in the U.S. and particularly for the use of territorially based representation (election by district). First, the demographic complexity of the U.S. population has grown both in absolute terms and in terms of residential patterns. Second, legal developments since the 1960s have recognized an increasing number of groups as eligible for voting rights protection. Third, the growing technical capacities of computer technology, particularly Geographic Information Systems, have allowed political parties and other organizations to create election districts with increasingly precise political and demographic characteristics. Scholars have made considerable progress in measuring and evaluating the racial and partisan biases of districting plans, and some states have tried to use Geographic Information Systems technology to produce more representative districts. However, case studies of Texas and Arizona illustrate that such analytic and technical advances have not overcome the basic contradictions that underlie the American system of territorial political representation.

Demographic Change Among the Hopi and Navajo Indians. Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin Number 2, October 1973.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kunitz, Stephen J.

Concerned with historical patterns and with comparisons from one area to another, this report traced the growth of the Navajo and Hopi populations over the past 100 years (1870-1970). Data on fertility, mortality, and migration were obtained from the: Indian Health Service, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Public Health Service Office of Vital…

Stability and change in alcohol habits of different socio-demographic subgroups--a cohort study.

PubMed

Sydén, Lovisa; Wennberg, Peter; Forsell, Yvonne; Romelsjö, Anders

2014-05-29

Stability in alcohol habits varies over time and in subgroups, but there are few longitudinal studies assessing stability in alcohol habits by socio-demographic subgroups and potential predictors of stability and change. The aim was to study stability and change in alcohol habits by sex, age, and socio-economic position (SEP). Data derived from two longitudinal population based studies in Sweden; the PART study comprising 19 457 individuals aged 20-64 years in 1998-2000, and the Stockholm Public Health Cohort (SPHC) with 50 067 individuals aged 18-84 years in 2002. Both cohorts were followed-up twice; PART 2000-2003 and 2010, and SPHC 2007 and 2010. Alcohol habits were measured with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), and with normal weekly alcohol consumption (NWAC). Stability in alcohol habits was measured with intraclass correlation. Odds ratios were estimated in multinomial logistic regression analysis to predict stability in alcohol habits. For the two drinking measures there were no consistent patterns of stability in alcohol habits by sex or educational level. The stability was higher for older age groups and self-employed women. To be a man aged 30-39 at baseline predicted both increase and decrease in alcohol habits. The findings illustrate higher stability in alcohol habits with increasing age and among self-employed women with risky alcohol habits. To be a man and the age 30-39 predicted change in alcohol habits. No conclusive pattern of socio-economic position as predictor of change in alcohol habits was found and other studies of potential predictors seem warranted.

Lifestyle and Ice: The Relationship between Ecological Specialization and Response to Pleistocene Climate Change.

PubMed

Kašparová, Eva; Van de Putte, Anton P; Marshall, Craig; Janko, Karel

2015-01-01

Major climatic changes in the Pleistocene had significant effects on marine organisms and the environments in which they lived. The presence of divergent patterns of demographic history even among phylogenetically closely-related species sharing climatic changes raises questions as to the respective influence of species-specific traits on population structure. In this work we tested whether the lifestyle of Antarctic notothenioid benthic and pelagic fish species from the Southern Ocean influenced the concerted population response to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations. This was done by a comparative analysis of sequence variation at the cyt b and S7 loci in nine newly sequenced and four re-analysed species. We found that all species underwent more or less intensive changes in population size but we also found consistent differences between demographic histories of pelagic and benthic species. Contemporary pelagic populations are significantly more genetically diverse and bear traces of older demographic expansions than less diverse benthic species that show evidence of more recent population expansions. Our findings suggest that the lifestyles of different species have strong influences on their responses to the same environmental events. Our data, in conjunction with previous studies showing a constant diversification tempo of these species during the Pleistocene, support the hypothesis that Pleistocene glaciations had a smaller effect on pelagic species than on benthic species whose survival may have relied upon ephemeral refugia in shallow shelf waters. These findings suggest that the interaction between lifestyle and environmental changes should be considered in genetic analyses.

SECULAR GROWTH AND MATURATION CHANGES IN HUNGARY IN RELATION TO SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES.

PubMed

Bodzsar, Eva B; Zsakai, Annamaria; Mascie-Taylor, Nicholas

2016-03-01

This paper analyses the secular changes in the body development patterns of Hungarian children between the 1910s and the beginning of the 2000s in relation to socioeconomic and demographic changes in the country. Individual growth data of children were available from two national growth studies (1983-86, 2003-06), while sample-size weighted means of children's body dimensions were collected through regional studies between the 1920s and 1970s. Gross domestic product, Gini index, life expectancy at birth and under-5 mortality rate were used to assess the changes in economic status, income inequalities of the society and the population's general health status, respectively. Secular changes in food consumption habits were also examined. The positive Hungarian secular changes in socioeconomic status were associated with a continuous increase in children's body dimensions. The negative socioeconomic changes reflected only in wartime and post-war periods of children's growth, and the considerable socioeconomic changes at the beginning of the 1990s did not appear to influence the positive trend in children's growth. The positive secular trend in stature and body mass did not level off at the beginning of the 2000s: the socioeconomic conditions that support optimal growth and maturation could improve in Hungary.

Phylogeography of the sand dune ant Mycetophylax simplex along the Brazilian Atlantic Forest coast: remarkably low mtDNA diversity and shallow population structure.

PubMed

Cardoso, Danon Clemes; Cristiano, Maykon Passos; Tavares, Mara Garcia; Schubart, Christoph D; Heinze, Jürgen

2015-06-10

During past glacial periods, many species of forest-dwelling animals experienced range contractions. In contrast, species living outside such moist habitats appear to have reacted to Quaternary changes in different ways. The Atlantic Forest represents an excellent opportunity to test phylogeographic hypotheses, because it has a wide range of vegetation types, including unforested habitats covered predominantly by herbaceous and shrubby plants, which are strongly influenced by the harsh environment with strong wind and high insolation. Here, we investigated the distribution of genetic diversity in the endemic sand dune ant Mycetophylax simplex across its known range along the Brazilian coast, with the aim of contributing to the understanding of alternative phylogeographic patterns. We used partial sequences of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I and nuclear gene wingless from 108 specimens and 51 specimens, respectively, to assess the phylogeography and demographic history of this species. To achieve this we performed different methods of phylogenetic and standard population genetic analyses. The observed genetic diversity distribution and historical demographic profile suggests that the history of M. simplex does not match the scenario suggested for other Atlantic Forest species. Instead, it underwent demographic changes and range expansions during glacial periods. Our results show that M. simplex presents a shallow phylogeographic structure with isolation by distance among the studied populations, living in an almost panmictic population. Our coalescence approach indicates that the species maintained a stable population size until roughly 75,000 years ago, when it underwent a gradual demographic expansion that were coincident with the low sea-level during the Quaternary. Such demographic events were likely triggered by the expansion of the shorelines during the lowering of the sea level. Our data suggest that over evolutionary time M. simplex did not undergo dramatic range fragmentation, but rather it likely persisted in largely interconnected populations. Furthermore, we add an important framework about how both glacial and interglacial events could positively affect the distribution and diversification of species. The growing number of contrasting phylogeographic patterns within and among species and regions have shown that Quaternary events influenced the distribution of species in more ways than first supposed.

Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Wang, Guiming; Hobbs, N Thompson; Galbraith, Hector; Giesen, Kenneth M

2002-09-01

Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns, which, in turn, can impact a variety of ecological processes. However, it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied, it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, i.e., the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.

A cross-sectional cluster analysis of the combined association of physical activity and sleep with sociodemographic and health characteristics in mid-aged and older adults.

PubMed

Rayward, Anna T; Duncan, Mitch J; Brown, Wendy J; Plotnikoff, Ronald C; Burton, Nicola W

2017-08-01

This study aimed to identify how different patterns of physical activity, sleep duration and sleep quality cluster together, and to examine how the identified clusters differ in terms of socio-demographic and health characteristics. Participants were adults from Brisbane, Australia, aged 42-72 years who reported their physical activity, sleep duration, sleep quality, socio-demographic and health characteristics in 2011 (n=5854). Two-step Cluster Analyses were used to identify clusters. Cluster differences in socio-demographic and health characteristics were examined using chi square tests (p<0.05). Four clusters were identified: 'Poor Sleepers' (31.2%), 'Moderate Sleepers' (30.7%), 'Mixed Sleepers/Highly Active' (20.5%), and 'Excellent Sleepers/Mixed Activity' (17.6%). The 'Poor Sleepers' cluster had the highest proportion of participants with less-than-recommended sleep duration and poor sleep quality, had the poorest health characteristics and a high proportion of participants with low physical activity. Physical activity, sleep duration and sleep quality cluster together in distinct patterns and clusters of poor behaviours are associated with poor health status. Multiple health behaviour change interventions which target both physical activity and sleep should be prioritised to improve health outcomes in mid-aged adults. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Patterns of osteoporosis treatment change and treatment discontinuation among commercial and Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug members in a national health plan.

PubMed

Xu, Yihua; Viswanathan, Hema N; Ward, Melea A; Clay, Brad; Adams, John L; Stolshek, Bradley S; Kallich, Joel D; Fine, Shari; Saag, Kenneth G

2013-02-01

Multiple treatments are available for osteoporosis; however, little is known about treatment change patterns and associated factors. Osteoporosis treatment change patterns, discontinuation and factors associated with treatment change in members of a large national health plan were examined. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 7315 commercial and 34 146 Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug (MAPD) members newly initiated on an osteoporosis medication between 2006 and 2008. Osteoporosis treatment change, discontinuation and re-initiation patterns were assessed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with treatment change. Commercial and MAPD members were assessed separately because of differences in demographics and insurance benefits. Approximately 12% of members had a change in index therapy within 12 months. Almost 60% of members discontinued the index medication at least once, based on a 90-day refill gap. Over 40% of members discontinued all osteoporosis medications by the end of 12 months post-index. Among MAPD and commercial members, women and those with risedronate, ibandronate or calcitonin at index, index therapy in 2008 and an osteoporosis diagnosis were more likely to have a treatment change while members with health plans other than health maintenance organizations and generic alendronate at index were less likely to have a treatment change. Osteoporosis treatment change occurred in approximately 12% of members, while a greater proportion of members discontinued treatment completely within 12 months. Member characteristics may be used to predict therapy change for evaluation and quality initiatives within a health plan. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The social media: its impact on a vascular surgery practice.

PubMed

Turnipseed, William D

2013-04-01

Social media has revolutionized interpersonal communication and has become a commonly used public informational resource. This study evaluates the impact of intranet informatics on a specialty practice of vascular surgery. Referral patterns for patients with chronic compartment syndrome (CCS) and popliteal entrapment syndrome (PAES) between 2008 and 2011 were analyzed. Demographics included referral source (physicians, nonphysicians), media resource, and case volume change. Prior to 2008, referrals came from local or regional sports medicine practices (100%). Since 2008 this pattern has changed; local/regional (80%), national (15%), and international (5%). Physician referrals dropped from 97% to 70%, and nonphysician referrals increased from 3% to 30%. Both CCS procedures and PAES procedures increased as remote geographic and public referrals increased. Referral change was associated with social media searches using applications such as PubMed and Google. Social media is an evolving source of medical information and patient referrals which physicians should cautiously embrace.

[Epidemiological transition in Latin America: a comparison of four countries].

PubMed

Albala, C; Vio, F; Yáñez, M

1997-06-01

In the last decade, Latin America has experienced important transformations in its health conditions, due to demographic changes and a rapid urbanization process. To analyze socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiological changes in Chile, Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay and relate them to the different stages in the demographic and epidemiological transition of these countries. Data was obtained from official information of local and international organizations such as Pan-American Health Organization, United Nations, Latin American Center for Demography (CELADE) and World Bank. Guatemala is in a pre-transition stage with a high proportion of communicable diseases as causes of death (61%) as compared with Mexico (22%), Chile (13%) and Uruguay (7%). Mexico is in a prolonged transition situation and Chile is close to Uruguay in a post-transitional stage. Despite decreasing rates of mortality, the proportion of deaths represented by chronic diseases and injuries has increased to over 30% in all countries, except Uruguay. Adjusted mortality rates for cardiovascular diseases are lower in Latin American countries, as compared to Canada. However, excepting Guatemala, there are differences in the pattern of cardiovascular disease, with a higher mortality due to cerebrovascular and a lower mortality due to coronary artery diseases. An increment in non communicable diseases is expected for the next decades in Latin America. Analysis of demographic and epidemiological transition is crucial to define health policies and to adequate health systems to the new situations.

Nonlocal grazing in patterned ecosystems.

PubMed

Siero, E

2018-01-07

Many ecosystems exhibit gapped, labyrinthine, striped or spotted patterns. Important examples are vegetation patterns in drylands: these patterns are viewed as precursors of a catastrophic transition to a degraded state. A possible source of degradation is overgrazing, but many current spatially extended models include grazing in a local linear way. In this article nonlocal grazing responses are derived, taking into account (1) how many consumers there are (demographic response) (2) where they are (aggregative response) and (3) how much they forage (functional response). Different assumptions lead to different grazing responses, the type of grazing has a large influence on how ecosystems adapt to changing environmental conditions. In dryland simulations the different types of grazing are shown to alter the desertification process driven by decreasing rainfall. A sufficiently strong aggregative response leads to the suppression of vegetation patterns, nuancing their role as generic early warning signals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demographic stability metrics for conservation prioritization of isolated populations.

PubMed

Finn, Debra S; Bogan, Michael T; Lytle, David A

2009-10-01

Systems of geographically isolated habitat patches house species that occur naturally as small, disjunct populations. Many of these species are of conservation concern, particularly under the interacting influences of isolation and rapid global change. One potential conservation strategy is to prioritize the populations most likely to persist through change and act as sources for future recolonization of less stable localities. We propose an approach to classify long-term population stability (and, presumably, future persistence potential) with composite demographic metrics derived from standard population-genetic data. Stability metrics can be related to simple habitat measures for a straightforward method of classifying localities to inform conservation management. We tested these ideas in a system of isolated desert headwater streams with mitochondrial sequence data from 16 populations of a flightless aquatic insect. Populations exhibited a wide range of stability scores, which were significantly predicted by dry-season aquatic habitat size. This preliminary test suggests strong potential for our proposed method of classifying isolated populations according to persistence potential. The approach is complementary to existing methods for prioritizing local habitats according to diversity patterns and should be tested further in other systems and with additional loci to inform composite demographic stability scores.

Trajectory of Declines in Physical Activity in Community-Dwelling Older Women: Social Cognitive Influences

PubMed Central

Hall, Katherine S.; Motl, Robert W.; White, Siobhan M.; Wójcicki, Thomas R.; Hu, Liang; Doerksen, Shawna E.

2009-01-01

Studies examining physical activity behavior suggest that activity levels decline with age. Such declines are particularly problematic among older adults in light of the research suggesting a protective effect of physical activity on numerous physical health outcomes associated with independent living. Despite a growing recognition of the importance of a physically active lifestyle, little is known about the role of demographic and psychosocial variables on this trajectory of change. In this study, the roles played by outcome expectations, self-efficacy, and functional limitations on changes in physical activity levels over a 2-year period in older women were assessed using latent growth curve modeling. Data were obtained from 249 community-dwelling older women (M age = 68.12, n = 81 Black, and n = 168 White). Demographic, health status, and psychosocial data were collected via self-report upon entry into the study. Self-reported physical activity was assessed at baseline and again at 12 and 24 months. As expected, physical activity declined over the 2-year period. Self-efficacy demonstrated an indirect association with the trajectory of decline in physical activity through functional limitations. Importantly, the pattern of relationships appears independent of demographic factors and chronic health conditions. PMID:19528360

Uptake of Meningococcal Vaccine in Arizona Schoolchildren After Implementation of School-Entry Immunization Requirements

PubMed Central

Hills, Rebecca A.; Allwes, Deborah; Rasmussen, Lisa

2013-01-01

Objectives Meningitis and bacteremia due to Neisseria meningitidis are rare but potentially deadly diseases that can be prevented with immunization. Beginning in 2008, Arizona school immunization requirements were amended to include immunization of children aged 11 years or older with meningococcal vaccine before entering the sixth grade. We describe patterns in meningococcal vaccine uptake surrounding these school-entry requirement changes in Arizona. Methods We used immunization records from the Arizona State Immunization Information System (ASIIS) to compare immunization rates in 11- and 12-year-olds. We used principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis to identify and analyze demographic variables reported by the 2010 U.S. Census. Results Adolescent meningococcal immunization rates in Arizona increased after implementation of statewide school-entry immunization requirements. The increase in meningococcal vaccination rates among 11- and 12-year-olds from 2007 to 2008 was statistically significant (p<0.0001). All demographic groups had significantly higher odds of on-schedule vaccination after the school-entry requirement change (odds ratio range = 5.57 to 12.81, p<0.0001). County demographic factors that were associated with lower odds of on-schedule vaccination included higher poverty, more children younger than 18 years of age, fewer high school graduates, and a higher proportion of Native Americans. Conclusions This analysis suggests that implementation of school immunization requirements resulted in increased meningococcal vaccination rates in Arizona, with degree of response varying by demographic profile. ASIIS was useful for assessing changes in immunization rates over time. Further study is required to identify methods to control for population overestimates in registry data. PMID:23277658

Variation in dietary intake and physical activity pattern as predictors of change in body mass index (BMI) Z-score among Brazilian adolescents.

PubMed

Enes, Carla C; Slater, Betzabeth

2013-06-01

To assess whether changes in dietary intake and physical activity pattern are associated with the annual body mass index (BMI) z-score change among adolescents. The study was conducted in public schools in the city of Piracicaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil, with a probabilistic sample of 431 adolescents participating in wave I (2004) (hereafter, baseline) and 299 in wave II (2005) (hereafter, follow-up). BMI, usual food intake, physical activity, screen time, sexual maturation and demographic variables were assessed twice. The association between annual change in food intake, physical activity, screen time, and annual BMI z-score changes were assessed by multiple regression. The study showed a positive variation in BMI z-score over one-year. Among variables related to physical activity pattern only playing videogame and using computer increased over the year. The intake of fruits and vegetables and sugar-sweetened beverages increased over one year, while the others variables showed a reduction. An increased consumption of fatty foods (β = 0.04, p = 0.04) and sweetened natural fruit juices (β = 0.05, p = 0.03) was positively associated with the rise in BMI z-score. Unhealthy dietary habits can predict the BMI z-score gain more than the physical activity pattern. The intake of fatty foods and sweetened fruit juices is associated with the BMI z-score over one year.

Are species photosynthetic characteristics good predictors of seedling post-hurricane demographic patterns and species spatiotemporal distribution in a hurricane impacted wet montane forest?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Denneko; McLaren, Kurt

2018-05-01

In situ measurements of leaf level photosynthetic response to light were collected from seedlings of ten tree species from a tropical montane wet forest, the John Crow Mountains, Jamaica. A model-based recursive partitioning ('mob') algorithm was then used to identify species associations based on their fitted photosynthetic response curves. Leaf area dark respiration (RD) and light saturated maximum photosynthetic (Amax) rates were also used as 'mob' partitioning variables, to identify species associations based on seedling demographic patterns (from June 2007 to May 2010) following a hurricane (Aug. 2007) and the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of stems in 2006 and 2012. RD and Amax rates ranged from 1.14 to 2.02 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1 and 2.97-5.87 μmol (CO2) m-2s-1, respectively, placing the ten species in the range of intermediate shade tolerance. Several parsimonious species 'mob' groups were formed based on 1) interspecific differences among species response curves, 2) variations in post-hurricane seedling demographic trends and 3) RD rates and species spatiotemporal distribution patterns at aspects that are more or less exposed to hurricanes. The composition of parsimonious groupings based on photosynthetic curves was not concordant with the groups based on demographic trends but was partially concordant with the RD - species spatiotemporal distribution groups. Our results indicated that the influence of photosynthetic characteristics on demographic traits and species distributions was not straightforward. Rather, there was a complex pattern of interaction between ecophysiological and demographic traits, which determined species successional status, post-hurricane response and ultimately, species distribution at our study site.

The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2013-12-01

Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

Challenges and approaches to projecting changes in forest distributions in complex mountain landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kueppers, L. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Meromy, L.; Moyes, A. B.; Conlisk, E.; Castanha, C.

2015-12-01

The extent and density of forest trees in mountain landscapes is a first order control on watershed function, affecting patterns of snow accumulation, timing of snowmelt, and amount and quality of run-off, through alterations of surface energy and water fluxes and wind. Climate change is increasingly affecting the density and distribution of mature forests through changes to disturbance regimes, increases in physiological stress and increases in mortality due to warmer temperatures. In addition, climate change is likely altering patterns of regeneration and driving establishment of trees in high elevation meadows and alpine tundra. Though hard to detect in current forestry datasets, changes in tree establishment are critical to the future of forests. Experimental approaches, such as our climate warming experiment in the Colorado Front Range, can provide valuable data regarding seedling sensitivity to climate variability and change across important landscape positions. We've found that warming enhances negative effects of water stress across forest, treeline and alpine sites, reducing recruitment in the absence of additional summer moisture. At the lowest elevation, reductions with warming have reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment to zero. Species differ in their responses to warming in the alpine, but together confirm the importance of seed dispersal to upward forest shifts. The presence of trees or other vegetation can facilitate tree establishment by modifying microclimates, especially at and above treeline. Ultimately, these ecological and demographic processes govern the timescales of tree and forest responses to climate variability and change. For the long-lived species that dominate high elevation watersheds, these processes can take decades or centuries to play out, meaning many tree populations are and will continue to be out of equilibrium with a rapidly changing climate. Projecting changes in tree distributions and abundances across mountain landscapes requires integration of changes in hydroclimatic conditions across diverse topoclimatic settings; the sensitivity of recruitment, growth and mortality to climate; and feedbacks between trees and microclimate into modeling tools that represent time-explicit ecological and demographic processes.

Interest in dietary pattern, social capital, and psychological distress: a cross-sectional study in a rural Japanese community

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Among life-style factors affecting mental health, dietary habits are becoming a public health concern in their relation to psychological distress and social capital. We examined associations between interest in dietary pattern, social capital, and psychological distress with a population-based cross-sectional study in rural Japan. Methods A total of 16,996 residents of a rural town in northern Japan aged 30–79 years participated in this questionnaire survey. The questionnaire gathered data about socio-demographic variables, psychological distress, issues related to dietary habits, including interest in dietary pattern, and the social capital factors of reciprocity and sense of community belonging. Factors related to psychological distress were analyzed by using multiple logistic regression analysis. Results A high interest in dietary pattern was significantly associated with a high level of social capital. In addition, an association between interest in dietary pattern and frequencies of intake of vegetables and fruits was confirmed. The multiple logistic regression analyses showed significant associations between interest in dietary pattern, social capital, frequency of intake of vegetables, and psychological distress after adjusting for socio-demographic variables. Low interest in dietary pattern was positively associated with psychological distress after adjusting for socio-demographic variables (OR = 2.18; 95%CI: 1.69-2.81). Low levels of both reciprocity and sense of community belonging were associated with psychological distress after adjusting for socio-demographic variables (OR = 3.46 with 95%CI of 2.10–5.71 for reciprocity, and OR = 7.42 with 95%CI of 4.64–11.87 for sense of community belonging). Conclusion Low interest in dietary pattern, low frequency of intake of vegetables, and low levels of social capital were significantly associated with psychological distress after adjusting for socio-demographic variables. PMID:24099097

Evolutionary and demographic processes shaping geographic patterns of genetic diversity in a keystone species, the African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis).

PubMed

Ishida, Yasuko; Gugala, Natalie A; Georgiadis, Nicholas J; Roca, Alfred L

2018-05-01

The past processes that have shaped geographic patterns of genetic diversity may be difficult to infer from current patterns. However, in species with sex differences in dispersal, differing phylogeographic patterns between mitochondrial (mt) and nuclear (nu) DNA may provide contrasting insights into past events. Forest elephants ( Loxodonta cyclotis ) were impacted by climate and habitat change during the Pleistocene, which likely shaped phylogeographic patterns in mitochondrial (mt) DNA that have persisted due to limited female dispersal. By contrast, the nuclear (nu) DNA phylogeography of forest elephants in Central Africa has not been determined. We therefore examined the population structure of Central African forest elephants by genotyping 94 individuals from six localities at 21 microsatellite loci. Between forest elephants in western and eastern Congolian forests, there was only modest genetic differentiation, a pattern highly discordant with that of mtDNA. Nuclear genetic patterns are consistent with isolation by distance. Alternatively, male-mediated gene flow may have reduced the previous regional differentiation in Central Africa suggested by mtDNA patterns, which likely reflect forest fragmentation during the Pleistocene. In species like elephants, male-mediated gene flow erases the nuclear genetic signatures of past climate and habitat changes, but these continue to persist as patterns in mtDNA because females do not disperse. Conservation implications of these results are discussed.

The Association of Socio-Demographic Status, Lifestyle Factors and Dietary Patterns with Total Urinary Phthalates in Australian Men

PubMed Central

Bai, Peter Y.; Wittert, Gary A.; Taylor, Anne W.; Martin, Sean A.; Milne, Robert W.; Shi, Zumin

2015-01-01

Objective To investigate the associations between socio-demographic status, lifestyle factors, dietary patterns and urinary total phthalate concentration in a cohort of South Australian men. Method We randomly selected 1527 males aged 39 to 84 from wave two of the Men Androgen Inflammation Lifestyle Environment and Stress (MAILES) study. Total phthalate concentration was examined in fasting morning urine samples. Socio-demographic and lifestyle factors were assessed by questionnaire. Food intake was assessed by food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Dietary patterns were constructed using factor analysis. Results Total phthalates were detected in 99.6% of the urine samples. The overall geometric mean (95% CI) of total phthalate concentration was 112.4 (107.5–117.5) ng/mL. The least square geometric means (LSGMs) of total phthalate concentration were significantly higher among people who were obese (127.8 ng/mL), consuming less than two serves fruit per day (125.7 ng/mL) and drinking more than one can (375mL) of carbonated soft drink per day (131.9 ng/mL). Two dietary patterns were identified: a prudent dietary pattern and a western dietary pattern. Both the western dietary pattern (p = 0.002) and multiple lifestyle risk factors including smoking, obesity, insufficient physical activity and the highest quartile of the western dietary pattern (p<0.001), were positively associated with total phthalate levels. There was no significant relationship between total phthalate concentration and socio-demographic status. Conclusion Phthalate exposure is ubiquitous and positively associated with lifestyle risk factors in urban dwelling Australian men. PMID:25875472

Demographic and substance abuse trends among pregnant and non-pregnant women: eleven years of treatment admission data.

PubMed

McCabe, Jennifer E; Arndt, Stephan

2012-11-01

The objective of this study was to identify demographic and substance abuse trends among pregnant women entering treatment over eleven years. This study compiled the publicly available Treatment Episode Datasets from the Substance Abuse Mental Health Services Administration from 1998 to 2008. Subjects included 1,724,479 women entering publicly funded substance abuse treatment for the first time, 81,818 of whom were pregnant. Compared to non-pregnant women, pregnant women were more likely to be younger, minority, never married, less educated, homeless, and on public-assistance or have no income. Referrals from health care providers (HCPs) among pregnant women entering treatment have stayed consistently low while referrals from the criminal justice system accounted for the largest portion of pregnant women entering treatment. Over the past eleven years, there has been a general decline in alcohol abuse and an increase in drug abuse among women entering treatment; this trend was more pronounced in pregnant women. Unlike their non-pregnant counterparts, pregnant women were more likely to report marijuana, not alcohol, as their primary problem substance as well as other drugs like methamphetamine and cocaine. Over the past eleven years, trends in the demographics and patterns of substance abuse among women have changed; some of these trends were unique to pregnant women. A large proportion of pregnant women entering treatment are referred by the criminal justice system. Knowledge surrounding the demographics and abuse patterns of pregnant women entering treatment can inform HCPs and community programs in their screening and outreach efforts.

Trends in substance use admissions among older adults.

PubMed

Chhatre, Sumedha; Cook, Ratna; Mallik, Eshita; Jayadevappa, Ravishankar

2017-08-22

Substance abuse is a growing, but mostly silent, epidemic among older adults. We sought to analyze the trends in admissions for substance abuse treatment among older adults (aged 55 and older). Treatment Episode Data Set - Admissions (TEDS-A) for period between 2000 and 2012 was used. The trends in admission for primary substances, demographic attributes, characteristics of substance abused and type of admission were analyzed. While total number of substance abuse treatment admissions between 2000 and 2012 changed slightly, proportion attributable to older adults increased from 3.4% to 7.0%. Substantial changes in the demographic, substance use pattern, and treatment characteristics for the older adult admissions were noted. Majority of the admissions were for alcohol as the primary substance. However there was a decreasing trend in this proportion (77% to 64%). The proportion of admissions for following primary substances showed increase: cocaine/crack, marijuana/hashish, heroin, non-prescription methadone, and other opiates and synthetics. Also, admissions for older adults increased between 2000 and 2012 for African Americans (21% to 28%), females (20% to 24%), high school graduates (63% to 75%), homeless (15% to 19%), unemployed (77% to 84%), and those with psychiatric problems (17% to 32%).The proportion of admissions with prior history of substance abuse treatment increased from 39% to 46% and there was an increase in the admissions where more than one problem substance was reported. Ambulatory setting continued to be the most frequent treatment setting, and individual (including self-referral) was the most common referral source. The use of medication assisted therapy remained low over the years (7% - 9%). The changing demographic and substance use pattern of older adults implies that a wide array of psychological, social, and physiological needs will arise. Integrated, multidisciplinary and tailored policies for prevention and treatment are necessary to address the growing epidemic of substance abuse in older adults.

Targeted capture sequencing in Whitebark pine reveals range-wide demographic and adaptive patterns despite challenges of a large, repetitive genome

Treesearch

John V. Syring; Jacob A. Tennessen; Tara N. Jennings; Jill Wegrzyn; Camille Scelfo-Dalbey; Richard Cronn

2016-01-01

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) inhabits an expansive range in western North America, and it is a keystone species of subalpine environments. Whitebark is susceptible to multiple threats – climate change, white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and fire exclusion – and it is suffering significant mortality range-wide, prompting the tree to be listed as ‘...

Climate, fishery and society interactions: Observations from the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, Lawrence C.

2007-11-01

Interdisciplinary studies comparing fisheries-dependent regions across the North Atlantic find a number of broad patterns. Large ecological shifts, disastrous to historical fisheries, have resulted when unfavorable climatic events occur atop overfishing. The "teleconnections" linking fisheries crises across long distances include human technology and markets, as well as climate or migratory fish species. Overfishing and climate-driven changes have led to a shift downwards in trophic levels of fisheries takes in some ecosystems, from dominance by bony fish to crustaceans. Fishing societies adapt to new ecological conditions through social reorganization that have benefited some people and places, while leaving others behind. Characteristic patterns of demographic change are among the symptoms of such reorganization. These general observations emerge from a review of recent case studies of individual fishing communities, such as those conducted for the North Atlantic Arc research project.

[The clinical picture and stability of non-cognitive symptoms in patients with Alzheimer's disease].

PubMed

Haupt, M; Jänner, M; Stierstorfer, A; Kretschmar, C

1998-05-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate noncognitive symptoms in Alzheimer's disease in order to identify symptom patterns and to study stability of such patterns prospectively. Furthermore, variables were examined which could be associated with certain types of symptom patterns or could be predictors of change of these patterns. Forty-eight patients with the clinical diagnosis of probable Alzheimer's disease were included in this study and were assessed weekly over a three-week period. Noncognitive symptoms were rated according to the Behavioral Abnormalities in Alzheimer's Disease Rating Scale (BEHAVE-AD) and the Dementia Mood Assessment Scale (DMAS) and to a set of items specifically assessing misidentifications. By means of principal component factor analysis different noncognitive symptom patterns were obtained yielding a four-factor solution. They were mapped as rational domains with respect to clinical experience: 'depression', 'apathy', 'psychotic symptoms/aggression', 'misidentifications/agitation'. Demographic and clinical variables were not associated with the factor solutions and did not predict change of the factor values. The results demonstrate that in Alzheimer's disease there are distinct noncognitive symptom patterns with at least short-term prospective stability. None of the examined clinical variables, such as age at entry, the status of the patients (outpatient or inpatient) or dementia severity, exerted substantial influence on the noncognitive symptom patterns. Further investigations should concentrate on the pathological and prognostical correlates of noncognitive symptom patterns in Alzheimer's disease.

Effect of changes in human ecology and behavior on patterns of sexually transmitted diseases, including human immunodeficiency virus infection.

PubMed Central

Wasserheit, J N

1994-01-01

The last 20 years have witnessed six striking changes in patterns of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs): emergence of new STD organisms and etiologies, reemergence of old STDs, shifts in the populations in which STDs are concentrated, shifts in the etiological spectra of STD syndromes, alterations in the incidence of STD complications, and increases in antimicrobial resistance. For example, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) emerged to devastate the United States with a fatal pandemic involving at least 1 million people. The incidence of syphilis rose progressively after 1956 to reach a 40-year peak by 1990. In both cases, disease patterns shifted from homosexual men to include minority heterosexuals. Over the last decade, gonorrhea became increasingly concentrated among adolescents, and several new types of antimicrobial resistance appeared. Three interrelated types of environments affect STD patterns. The microbiologic, hormonal, and immunologic microenvironments most directly influence susceptibility, infectiousness, and development of sequelae. These microenvironments are shaped, in part, by the personal environments created by an individual's sexual, substance-use, and health-related behaviors. The personal environments are also important determinants of acquisition of infection and development of sequelae but, in addition, they mediate risk of exposure to infection. These are, therefore, the environments that most directly affect changing disease patterns. Finally, individuals' personal environments are, in turn, molded by powerful macroenvironmental forces, including socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, political, epidemiologic, and technological factors. Over the past 20 years, the profound changes that have occurred in many aspects of the personal environment and the macroenvironment have been reflected in new STD patterns. PMID:8146135

Missing saiga on the taiga.

PubMed

Kuhn, Tyler S; Mooers, Arne Ø

2010-11-01

Conservation biologists understand that linking demographic histories of species at risk with causal biotic and abiotic events should help us predict the effects of ongoing biotic and abiotic change. In parallel, researchers have started to use ancient genetic information (aDNA) to explore the demographic histories of a number of species present in the Pleistocene fossil record (see, e.g. Shapiro et al. 2004). However, aDNA studies have primarily focused on identifying long-term population trends, linked to climate variability and the role of early human activity. Population trends over more recent time, e.g. during the Holocene, have been poorly explored, partly owing to analytical limitations. In this issue, Campos et al. (2010a) highlight the potential of aDNA to investigate demographic patterns over such recent time periods for the compelling and endangered saiga antelope Saiga tatarica (Fig. 1). The time may come when past and current demography can be combined to produce a seamless record. [Figure: see text]. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The changing demographic, legal, and technological contexts of political representation

PubMed Central

Forest, Benjamin

2005-01-01

Three developments have created challenges for political representation in the U.S. and particularly for the use of territorially based representation (election by district). First, the demographic complexity of the U.S. population has grown both in absolute terms and in terms of residential patterns. Second, legal developments since the 1960s have recognized an increasing number of groups as eligible for voting rights protection. Third, the growing technical capacities of computer technology, particularly Geographic Information Systems, have allowed political parties and other organizations to create election districts with increasingly precise political and demographic characteristics. Scholars have made considerable progress in measuring and evaluating the racial and partisan biases of districting plans, and some states have tried to use Geographic Information Systems technology to produce more representative districts. However, case studies of Texas and Arizona illustrate that such analytic and technical advances have not overcome the basic contradictions that underlie the American system of territorial political representation. PMID:16230615

Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

PubMed Central

Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frederic; Thuiller, Wilfried

2013-01-01

Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change. PMID:23209172

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

Lung cancer mortality clusters in Shandong Province, China: how do they change over 40 years?

PubMed Central

Fu, Zhentao; Li, Yingmei; Lu, Zilong; Chu, Jie; Sun, Jiandong; Zhang, Jiyu; Zhang, Gaohui; Xue, Fuzhong; Guo, Xiaolei; Xu, Aiqiang

2017-01-01

Lung cancer has long been a major health problem in China. This study aimed to examine the temporal trend and spatial pattern of lung cancer mortality in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2013. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from Shandong Death Registration System and three nationwide retrospective cause-of-death surveys. A Purely Spatial Scan Statistics method with Discrete Poisson models was used to detect possible high-risk spatial clusters. The results show that lung cancer mortality rate in Shandong Province increased markedly from 1970-1974 (7.22 per 100,000 person-years) to 2011-2013 (56.37/100, 000). This increase was associated with both demographic and non-demographic factors. Several significant spatial clusters with high lung cancer mortality were identified. The most likely cluster was located in the northern region of Shandong Province during both 1970-1974 and 2011-2013. It appears the spatial pattern remained largely consistent over the last 40 years despite the absolute increase in the mortality rates. These findings will help develop intervention strategies to reduce lung cancer mortality in this large Chinese population. PMID:29179474

Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pounds, J. Alan; Fogden, Michael P. L.; Campbell, John H.

1999-04-01

Recent warming has caused changes in species distribution and abundance, but the extent of the effects is unclear. Here we investigate whether such changes in highland forests at Monteverde, Costa Rica, are related to the increase in air temperatures that followed a step-like warming of tropical oceans in 1976 (refs4, 5). Twenty of 50 species of anurans (frogs and toads) in a 30-km2 study area, including the locally endemic golden toad (Bufo periglenes), disappeared following synchronous population crashes in 1987 (refs 6-8). Our results indicate that these crashes probably belong to a constellation of demographic changes that have altered communities of birds, reptiles and amphibians in the area and are linked to recent warming. The changes are all associated with patterns of dry-season mist frequency, which is negatively correlated with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and has declined dramatically since the mid-1970s. The biological and climatic patterns suggest that atmospheric warming has raised the average altitude at the base of the orographic cloud bank, as predicted by the lifting-cloud-base hypothesis,.

Economic and fiscal implications of aging for subnational American governments.

PubMed

Serow, W J

2001-01-01

This article begins with a brief review of the extensive literature dealing with the macroeconomic consequences of population aging in industrialized societies and places the question in the context of the political and economic framework of the United States. Next, we move to the fiscal ramifications of population aging for subnational units of government. The varying demographic sources of aging are then introduced and their economic implications are reviewed. The role of population aging within the context of subnational fiscal impacts is first examined by reviewing patterns of change in demand for state-government-provided public goods and services associated with an older population. These include primarily health care and income security. These considerations on the expenditure side are then extended to substate government, where primary and secondary education are easily the largest component of public budgets. Finally, the implications of demographic change on the revenue side of state and local public finances are considered, including potential impacts on sales, property, and income tax receipts.

Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease.

PubMed

Zhang, Ping; Atkinson, Peter M

2008-01-01

This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications.

Demographic crisis and recovery: a case study of the Xavante of Pimentel Barbosa.

PubMed

Flowers, N

1994-03-01

This case study of the Xavante of Pimentel Barbosa is an example of an Amazonian Indian group that, when exposed to White society, experienced the common history of diseases and social disruption, and then eventually, recovered from the demographic shock, increased fertility, and reduced mortality. Early contact for the Xavante was during the early 18th century in Goias state, Brazil; by the end of the 19th century the Xavante had migrated west into Mato Grosso in isolation. Brazilian government interests (1940s) and a research expeditionary group (1962) resulted in health posts and extensive genetic, epidemiologic, and demographic studies. The results showed good physical and nutritional status, but stress from epidemic disease and social disruption. Conditions had improved by 1976, and the battle was with encroaching ranchers. Strong indian political action led to the securing of boundaries within the Pimentel Barbosa reservation by 1977. The population doubled from 249 in 1977 to 411 in 1988, and increased to 3 villages. There was evidence of a return to more traditional practices. Data collection for this analysis occurred during 1976-77 and 1988 and 1990. Results were provided for recent demographic change, recent births and deaths, factors affecting fertility, fertility change, parity and infant mortality, life expectancy changes, infanticide, population growth, marriage patterns, and health changes. Fertility histories were collected from 71 women in 1971 and 109 women in 1990. Difficulties were encountered due to Xavante differences in enumeration of children. In the comparison of the surveys in 1977 and 1990, there was close correspondence of reported births, and discrepancies of 4-9 births and in age at death. The difficulties encountered were attributed to problems with interpreters. The demographic analysis showed evidence of introduced diseases, which increased infant mortality and threatened population replacement, followed by decreased infant mortality and a large cohort of reproductive age women increasing population growth. The history of this and similar populations is one of a rise and fall in population since colonial times. The seminomadic nature of this group may have saved them from extinction.

Vector-borne parasitic zoonoses: emerging scenarios and new perspectives.

PubMed

Colwell, Douglas D; Dantas-Torres, Filipe; Otranto, Domenico

2011-11-24

Changing climate is not the only driver for alterations in the dynamic interaction between arthropod vectors of zoonotic parasites and their hosts, including humans. A suite of other factors ranging from urbanization and deforestation to changing demographics in both developing and developed countries, the impact of the recent economic crisis, increased global movement of people and animals and follow-on effects of major catastrophes. This article reviews the most important vector-borne parasites of zoonotic concern that are changing/expanding their distribution patterns in both endemic and/or previously non-endemic areas. We include the discussion of the changing aspects of malaria, leishmaniasis, babesiosis, Chagas disease as well as of some spirurid and filarioid nematodes. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dental work force strategies during a period of change and uncertainty.

PubMed

Brown, L J

2001-12-01

Both supply and demand influence the ability of the dental work force to adequately and efficiently provide dental care to a U.S. population growing in size and diversity. Major changes are occurring on both sides of the dental care market. Among factors shaping the demand for dental care are changing disease patterns, shifting population demographics, the extent and features of third-party payment, and growth of the economy and the population. The capacity of the dental work force to provide care is influenced by enhancements of productivity and numbers of dental health personnel, as well as their demographic and practice characteristics. The full impact of these changes is difficult to predict. The dentist-to-population ratio does not reflect all the factors that must be considered to develop an effective dental work force policy. Nationally, the dental work force is likely to be adequate for the next several years, but regional work force imbalances appear to exist and may get worse. Against this backdrop of change and uncertainty, future dental work force strategies should strive for short-term responsiveness while avoiding long-term inflexibility. Trends in the work force must be continually monitored. Thorough analysis is required, and action should be taken when necessary.

Baby boomer doctors and nurses: demographic change and transitions to retirement.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah J; Beard, John R

2005-07-18

To examine the effect of demographic change on employment patterns for general practitioners, medical specialists and nurses since 1986, and to compare their patterns of retirement. Secondary analysis of previously unpublished Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data for the years 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001. Age distribution of GPs, specialists and nursing workforce; attrition rates as GPs, specialists and nurses left the workforce; and hours worked according to age group. The age profile of the GP, specialist and nursing workforce has aged since 1986 (P < 0.001), with the "baby boomer" generation making up more than half the workforce in 2001. A large proportion of GPs continued to work beyond the traditional retirement age of 65 years, with nurses retiring at a younger age than doctors (P < 0.001). All GP cohorts worked fewer hours in 2001 than they did in 1986 (P < 0.001), with "generation X" GPs working fewer hours than the baby boomers did at the same age (P < 0.001). Attrition of baby boomer clinicians will place unprecedented pressure on the medical workforce, and policy makers face a critical challenge to ensure workforce needs are met over the next 20 years. Policies and incentives to encourage ongoing employment among older clinicians, albeit at reduced hours, are crucial if the Australian health workforce is to be adequate to meet the growing community demand of the 21st century.

Demographic indicators of change in a deposit-feeding abyssal holothurian community (Station M, 4000 m)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffard, Christine L.; Kuhnz, Linda A.; Lemon, Larissa; Sherman, Alana D.; Smith, Kenneth L.

2016-03-01

Holothurians are among the most abundant benthic megafauna at abyssal depths, and important consumers and bioturbators of organic carbon on the sea floor. Significant fluctuations in abyssal holothurian density are often attributed to species-specific responses to variable particulate organic carbon flux (food supply) stemming from surface ocean events. We report changes in densities of 19 holothurian species at the abyssal monitoring site Station M in the northeast Pacific, recorded during 11 remotely operated vehicle surveys between Dec 2006 and Oct 2014. Body size demographics are presented for Abyssocucumis abyssorum, Synallactidae sp. 1, Paelopatides confundens, Elpidia sp. A, Peniagone gracilis, Peniagone papillata, Peniagone vitrea, Peniagone sp. A, Peniagone sp. 1, and Scotoplanes globosa. Densities were lower and species evenness was higher from 2006-2009 compared to 2011-2014. Food supply of freshly-settled phytodetritus was exceptionally high during this latter period. Based on relationships between median body length and density, numerous immigration and juvenile recruitment events of multiple species appeared to take place between 2011 and 2014. These patterns were dominated by elpidiids (Holothuroidea: Elasipodida: Elpidiidae), which consistently increased in density during a period of high food availability, while other groups showed inconsistent responses. We considered minimum body length to be a proxy for size at juvenile recruitment. Patterns in density clustered by this measure, which was a stronger predictor of maximum density than median and mean body length.

Development of the PCAD Model to Assess Biological Significance of Acoustic Disturbance

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

substantial pre-existing knowledge of foraging patterns , life-history schedules, and demographics. Therefore, it is essential to use well-studied species to...transiting areas of the post-molt migration . Using a bootstrapping approach, we simulated thousands of disturbances to achieve realistic error estimates...resident population). Given seasonal differences in calving, causes of mortality, and movement patterns , we will estimate demographic rates on a

The social distribution of dietary patterns. Traditional, modern and healthy eating among women in a Latin American city.

PubMed

Bojorquez, Ietza; Unikel, Claudia; Cortez, Irene; Cerecero, Diego

2015-09-01

Popkin's nutrition transition model proposes that after the change from the traditional to the modern dietary pattern, another change toward "healthy eating" could occur. As health-related practices are associated with social position, with higher socioeconomic groups generally being the first to adopt public health recommendations, a gradient of traditional-modern-healthy dietary patterns should be observed between groups. The objectives of this article were: 1) to describe the dietary patterns of a representative sample of adult women; 2) to assess whether dietary patterns differentiate in traditional, modern and healthy; and 3) to evaluate the association of social position and dietary patterns. We conducted a survey in Tijuana, a Mexican city at the Mexico-United States (US) border. Women 18-65 years old (n = 2345) responded to a food frequency questionnaire, and questions about socioeconomic and demographic factors. We extracted dietary patterns through factor analysis, and employed indicators of economic and cultural capital, life course stage and migration to define social position. We evaluated the association of social position and dietary patterns with linear regression models. Three patterns were identified: "tortillas," "hamburgers" and "vegetables." Women in a middle position of economic and cultural capital scored higher in the "hamburgers" pattern, and women in upper positions scored higher in the "vegetables" pattern. Economic and cultural capitals and migration interacted, so that for women lower in economic capital, having lived in the US was associated with higher scores in the "hamburgers" pattern. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Puer aeternus].

PubMed

Bélteczki, Zsuzsanna; Erdélyi, Agnes; Beszterci, Felícia

2011-01-01

The social changes of the last few decades have resulted in the revaluation of the classic life-stage models. The time of finding active employment and establishing a family have been postponed, thus not supporting self reliance and undertaking adult roles. In our comprehensive study we discuss the social and demographic phenomena that have contributed to the formation of post-adolescence. We analyse the significance of optional life-patterns which appeared instead of the standard life-course, as well as the change in the criteria system of adulthood and the separation dimensions. We review the psychoanalytic and psychosocial theories of adolescence- the theory of the Erikson adolescent crisis and Marcia's psychosocial moratorium theory, together with the cognitive patterns that lie in the background of post-adolescence, and the changes in lifestyle that characterize the social adaptation of youngsters. The differences between the Peter Pan syndrome and prolonged adolescence crisis are examined in the aspect of transaction-analysis. We take account of the psychic disorders, due to which these people seek for psychiatric help.

Molecular insights into the historic demography of bowhead whales: understanding the evolutionary basis of contemporary management practices

PubMed Central

Phillips, C D; Hoffman, J I; George, J C; Suydam, R S; Huebinger, R M; Patton, J C; Bickham, J W

2013-01-01

Patterns of genetic variation observed within species reflect evolutionary histories that include signatures of past demography. Understanding the demographic component of species' history is fundamental to informed management because changes in effective population size affect response to environmental change and evolvability, the strength of genetic drift, and maintenance of genetic variability. Species experiencing anthropogenic population reductions provide valuable case studies for understanding the genetic response to demographic change because historic changes in the census size are often well documented. A classic example is the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, which experienced dramatic population depletion due to commercial whaling in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Consequently, we analyzed a large multi-marker dataset of bowhead whales using a variety of analytical methods, including extended Bayesian skyline analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, to characterize genetic signatures of both ancient and contemporary demographic histories. No genetic signature of recent population depletion was recovered through any analysis incorporating realistic mutation assumptions, probably due to the combined influences of long generation time, short bottleneck duration, and the magnitude of population depletion. In contrast, a robust signal of population expansion was detected around 70,000 years ago, followed by a population decline around 15,000 years ago. The timing of these events coincides to a historic glacial period and the onset of warming at the end of the last glacial maximum, respectively. By implication, climate driven long-term variation in Arctic Ocean productivity, rather than recent anthropogenic disturbance, appears to have been the primary driver of historic bowhead whale demography. PMID:23403722

The effects of crises on differential mortality by sex in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Langsten, R

1981-01-01

Although the data available for secondary analysis are not ideal for the task at hand, they confirm that in normal times Bangladesh conforms to the South Asian pattern of sex differentials in mortality with females generally having higher death rates, and they clearly show that, in crisis years, the differential is inverted, with males in certain age groups suffering disproportionate increases in mortality. This crisis effect on sex differentials in mortality has been noted previously and on this point all observers appear to agree. Disagreement arises, however, as to the reasons why death rates among males increase more than those of females in crisis years. Explanations offered previously are either contradicted by available evidence or appear to be, at best, partial reasons for changes in some age groups. This paper reviews a number of suggested explanations, both cultural and demographic, which may provide an understanding of the mechanisms by which the normal sex specific mortality differentials are reversed at times of crisis. Some existing data, not currently available for detailed analysis, may be useful in examining some of the suggested reasons, particularly the demographic reasons. In the absence of far more information about intrafamilial decision making processes and how these may change in times of crisis, it is impossible to understand fully the reasons for changes in the mortality disadvantage. While the strong cultural bias favoring males offers a reason for lower male mortality, likely intervening variables such as nutrition and use of health facilities show only modest evidence of this bias. Crisis situations are those caused by war, severe flooding, price changes, and cyclones or other severe weather patterns, all of which impact on food production and access to health care.

Laryngeal cancer in the United States: changes in demographics, patterns of care, and survival.

PubMed

Hoffman, Henry T; Porter, Kimberly; Karnell, Lucy H; Cooper, Jay S; Weber, Randall S; Langer, Corey J; Ang, Kie-Kian; Gay, Greer; Stewart, Andrew; Robinson, Robert A

2006-09-01

Survival has decreased among patients with laryngeal cancer during the past 2 decades in the United States. During this same period, there has been an increase in the nonsurgical treatment of laryngeal cancer. The objectives of this study were to identify trends in the demographics, management, and outcome of laryngeal cancer in the United States and to analyze factors contributing to the decreased survival. The authors conducted a retrospective, longitudinal study of laryngeal cancer cases. Review of the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) revealed 158,426 cases of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (excluding verrucous carcinoma) diagnosed between the years 1985 and 2001. Analysis of these case records addressed demographics, management, and survival for cases grouped according to stage, site, and specific TNM classifications. This review of data from the NCDB analysis confirms the previously identified trend toward decreasing survival among patients with laryngeal cancer from the mid-1980s to mid-1990s. Patterns of initial management across this same period indicated an increase in the use of chemoradiation with a decrease in the use of surgery despite an increase in the use of endoscopic resection. The most notable decline in the 5-year relative survival between the 1985 to 1990 period and the 1994 to 1996 period occurred among advanced-stage glottic cancer, early-stage supraglottic cancers, and supraglottic cancers classified as T3N0M0. Initial treatment of T3N0M0 laryngeal cancer (all sites) in the 1994 to 1996 period resulted in poor 5-year relative survival for those receiving either chemoradiation (59.2%) or irradiation alone (42.7%) when compared with that of patients after surgery with irradiation (65.2%) and surgery alone (63.3%). In contrast, identical 5-year relative survival (65.6%) rates were observed during this same period for the subset of T3N0M0 glottic cancers initially treated with either chemoradiation or surgery with irradiation. The decreased survival recorded for patients with laryngeal cancer in the mid-1990s may be related to changes in patterns of management. Future studies are warranted to further evaluate these associations.

Oasis dynamics change and its influence on landscape pattern on Jinta oasis in arid China from 1963a to 2010a: Integration of multi-source satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yuchu; Gong, Jie; Sun, Peng; Gou, Xiaohua

2014-12-01

As one of the vital research highlights of global land use and cover change, oasis change and its interaction with landscape pattern have been regarded as an important content of regional environmental change research in arid areas. Jinta oasis, a typical agricultural oasis characterized by its dramatic exploitation and use of water and land resources in Hexi corridor, northwest arid region in China, was selected as a case to study the spatiotemporal oasis change and its effects on oasis landscape pattern. Based on integration of Keyhole satellite photographs, KATE-200 photographs, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM+ images, we evaluated and analyzed the status, trend and spatial pattern change of Jinta oasis and the characteristics of landscape pattern change by a set of mathematical models and combined this information with landscape metrics and community surveys. During the period of 1963a-2010a, Jinta oasis expanded gradually with an area increase of 219.15 km2, and the conversion between oasis and desert was frequent with a state of “imbalance-balance-extreme imbalance conditions”. Moreover, most of the changes took place in the ecotone between oasis and desert and the interior of oasis due to the reclamation of abandoned land, such as Yangjingziwan and Xiba townships. Furthermore, the area, size and spatial distribution of oasis were influenced by human activities and resulted in fundamental changes of oasis landscape pattern. The fractal characteristics, dispersion degree and fragmentation of Jinta oasis decreased and the oasis landscape tended to be simple and uniform. Oasis change trajectories and its landscape pattern were mainly influenced by water resource utilization, policies (especially land policies), demographic factors, technological advancements, as well as regional economic development. We found that time series analysis of multi-source remote sensing images and the application of an oasis change model provided a useful approach to monitor oasis change over a long-term period in arid area. It is recommended that the government and farmers should pay more attention to the fragility of the natural system and the government should enhance the leading role of environmental considerations in the development process of oasis change, particularly with respect to the utilization of the limited water and land resources in arid China.

Racial Diversity in the Suburbs: How Race-Neutral Responses to Demographic Change Perpetuate Inequity in Suburban School Districts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diem, Sarah; Welton, Anjalé D.; Frankenberg, Erica; Jellison Holme, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Suburbs across the US are experiencing dramatic demographic shifts, yet there is little research available on how suburban school districts are dealing with these changes. In this article, we examine the discourses surrounding race and demographic change in three suburban school districts that have been undergoing rapid demographic changes and…

Significant demographic and fine-scale genetic structure in expanding and senescing populations of the terrestrial orchid Cymbidium goeringii (Orchidaceae).

PubMed

Chung, Mi Yoon; Nason, John D; Chung, Myong Gi

2011-12-01

Fine-scale genetic structure (FSGS) in plants is influenced by variation in spatial and temporal demographic processes. To determine how demographic structure and FSGS change with stages of population succession, we studied replicate expanding and senescing populations of the Asian terrestrial orchid Cymbidium goeringii. We used spatial autocorrelation methods (O-ring and kinship statistics) to quantify spatial demographic structure and FSGS in two expanding and two senescing populations, also measuring genetic diversity and inbreeding in each. All populations exhibited significant aggregation of individuals and FSGS at short spatial scales. In expanding populations, this finding was associated with high recruitment rates, suggesting restricted seed dispersal. In senescing populations, recruitment was minimal, suggesting alternative mechanisms of aggregation, perhaps including spatial associations with mycorrhizal fungi. All populations had significant evidence of genetic bottlenecks, and inbreeding levels were consistently high. Our results indicate that different successional stages can generate similar patterns of spatial demographic and genetic structure, but as a consequence of different processes. These results contrast with the only other study of senescence effects on population genetic structure in an herbaceous perennial, which found little to no FSGS in senescing populations. With the exception of populations subject to mass collection by orchid sellers, significant FSGS is characteristic of the 16 terrestrial orchid species examined to date. From a conservation perspective, this result suggests that inference of orchid population history will benefit from analyses of both FSGS and demographic structure in combination with other ecological field data.

Large-scale patterns of turnover and Basal area change in Andean forests.

PubMed

Báez, Selene; Malizia, Agustina; Carilla, Julieta; Blundo, Cecilia; Aguilar, Manuel; Aguirre, Nikolay; Aquirre, Zhofre; Álvarez, Esteban; Cuesta, Francisco; Duque, Álvaro; Farfán-Ríos, William; García-Cabrera, Karina; Grau, Ricardo; Homeier, Jürgen; Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo; Malizia, Lucio R; Cruz, Omar Melo; Osinaga, Oriana; Phillips, Oliver L; Reynel, Carlos; Silman, Miles R; Feeley, Kenneth J

2015-01-01

General patterns of forest dynamics and productivity in the Andes Mountains are poorly characterized. Here we present the first large-scale study of Andean forest dynamics using a set of 63 permanent forest plots assembled over the past two decades. In the North-Central Andes tree turnover (mortality and recruitment) and tree growth declined with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. In addition, basal area increased in Lower Montane Moist Forests but did not change in Higher Montane Humid Forests. However, at higher elevations the lack of net basal area change and excess of mortality over recruitment suggests negative environmental impacts. In North-Western Argentina, forest dynamics appear to be influenced by land use history in addition to environmental variation. Taken together, our results indicate that combinations of abiotic and biotic factors that vary across elevation gradients are important determinants of tree turnover and productivity in the Andes. More extensive and longer-term monitoring and analyses of forest dynamics in permanent plots will be necessary to understand how demographic processes and woody biomass are responding to changing environmental conditions along elevation gradients through this century.

Large-Scale Patterns of Turnover and Basal Area Change in Andean Forests

PubMed Central

Blundo, Cecilia; Aguilar, Manuel; Aguirre, Nikolay; Aquirre, Zhofre; Álvarez, Esteban; Cuesta, Francisco; Farfán-Ríos, William; García-Cabrera, Karina; Grau, Ricardo; Linares-Palomino, Reynaldo; Malizia, Lucio R.; Cruz, Omar Melo; Osinaga, Oriana; Reynel, Carlos; Silman, Miles R.

2015-01-01

General patterns of forest dynamics and productivity in the Andes Mountains are poorly characterized. Here we present the first large-scale study of Andean forest dynamics using a set of 63 permanent forest plots assembled over the past two decades. In the North-Central Andes tree turnover (mortality and recruitment) and tree growth declined with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. In addition, basal area increased in Lower Montane Moist Forests but did not change in Higher Montane Humid Forests. However, at higher elevations the lack of net basal area change and excess of mortality over recruitment suggests negative environmental impacts. In North-Western Argentina, forest dynamics appear to be influenced by land use history in addition to environmental variation. Taken together, our results indicate that combinations of abiotic and biotic factors that vary across elevation gradients are important determinants of tree turnover and productivity in the Andes. More extensive and longer-term monitoring and analyses of forest dynamics in permanent plots will be necessary to understand how demographic processes and woody biomass are responding to changing environmental conditions along elevation gradients through this century. PMID:25973977

Geovisualization of Local and Regional Migration Using Web-mined Demographics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuermann, R. T.; Chow, T. E.

2014-11-01

The intent of this research was to augment and facilitate analyses, which gauges the feasibility of web-mined demographics to study spatio-temporal dynamics of migration. As a case study, we explored the spatio-temporal dynamics of Vietnamese Americans (VA) in Texas through geovisualization of mined demographic microdata from the World Wide Web. Based on string matching across all demographic attributes, including full name, address, date of birth, age and phone number, multiple records of the same entity (i.e. person) over time were resolved and reconciled into a database. Migration trajectories were geovisualized through animated sprites by connecting the different addresses associated with the same person and segmenting the trajectory into small fragments. Intra-metropolitan migration patterns appeared at the local scale within many metropolitan areas. At the scale of metropolitan area, varying degrees of immigration and emigration manifest different types of migration clusters. This paper presents a methodology incorporating GIS methods and cartographic design to produce geovisualization animation, enabling the cognitive identification of migration patterns at multiple scales. Identification of spatio-temporal patterns often stimulates further research to better understand the phenomenon and enhance subsequent modeling.

Changes in population characteristics and their implication on public health research.

PubMed

Du, Ping; Coles, F Bruce; O'Campo, Patricia; McNutt, Louise-Anne

2007-07-10

Population estimates are generally drawn from one point in time to study disease trends over time; changes in population characteristics over time are usually not assessed and included in the study design. We evaluated whether population characteristics remained static and assessed the degree of population shifts over time. The analysis was based on the New York State 1990 and 2000 census data with adjustments for changes in geographic boundaries. Differences in census tract information were quantified by calculating the mean, median, standard deviation, and the percent of change for each population characteristic. Between 1990 and 2000, positive and negative fluctuations in population size created a U-shaped bimodal pattern of population change which increased the disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status for many census tracts. While 268 (10%) census tracts contracted by 10%, twice as many census tracts (21%, N = 557) grew at least 10%. Notably, the non-Hispanic African-American population grew 10% or more in 152 tracts. Although there were overall reductions in working class and undereducated populations and gains in incomes, most census tracts experienced growing income inequalities and an increased poverty rate. These changes were most pronounced in urban census tracts. Differences in population characteristics in a decade showed growing disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status. This study elucidates that important population shifts should be taken into account when conducting longitudinal research.

Changes in population characteristics and their implication on public health research

PubMed Central

Du, Ping; Coles, F Bruce; O'Campo, Patricia; McNutt, Louise-Anne

2007-01-01

Population estimates are generally drawn from one point in time to study disease trends over time; changes in population characteristics over time are usually not assessed and included in the study design. We evaluated whether population characteristics remained static and assessed the degree of population shifts over time. The analysis was based on the New York State 1990 and 2000 census data with adjustments for changes in geographic boundaries. Differences in census tract information were quantified by calculating the mean, median, standard deviation, and the percent of change for each population characteristic. Between 1990 and 2000, positive and negative fluctuations in population size created a U-shaped bimodal pattern of population change which increased the disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status for many census tracts. While 268 (10%) census tracts contracted by 10%, twice as many census tracts (21%, N = 557) grew at least 10%. Notably, the non-Hispanic African-American population grew 10% or more in 152 tracts. Although there were overall reductions in working class and undereducated populations and gains in incomes, most census tracts experienced growing income inequalities and an increased poverty rate. These changes were most pronounced in urban census tracts. Differences in population characteristics in a decade showed growing disparities in demographics and socioeconomic status. This study elucidates that important population shifts should be taken into account when conducting longitudinal research. PMID:17623097

Who trusts scientists for information about climate change? Nuclear power? Vaccines?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, L.

2015-12-01

US public acceptance/rejection of science on the topic of climate change has become highly polarized, with a demographic profile well established through survey research. Trust in scientists for information about climate change tends to increase with education, decrease with age, and is higher among self-identified liberals and moderates than among conservatives. Demographic profiles of people who do or do not trust scientists regarding other disputed topics are less well established. Some observers have argued that certain domains such as vaccines, nuclear power or genetically modified organisms (GMOs) could present a mirror image of climate change, with liberals instead of conservatives disproportionately rejecting science on that topic. Evidence for this mirror-image hypothesis has been mainly anecdotal, however. Here we test it systematically using statewide survey data on more than 1200 interviews, comparing five similarly worded questions that ask respondents whether they trust, don't trust, or are unsure about scientists as a source of information about ... climate change, vaccines, evolution, nuclear power safety, or GMOs. Climate change proves to be the most polarized of these topics, but all five exhibit roughly similar age, education and ideological effects -- contrary to the mirror-image hypothesis. The common patterns across five science domains, chosen for their hypothetical contrasts, map out an unexpectedly cohesive picture of who trusts scientists for information, and who does not. Implications of these survey results for public outreach and science communication are explored.

Socio-demographic, behavioral and functional characteristics of groups of community and institutionalized elderly Quechua Indians of Peru, and their association with nutritional status.

PubMed

Fortunato, Laura; Drusini, Andrea G

2005-06-01

Socio-demographic, behavioral, functional and anthropometric data for groups of elderly Quechua Indians of Peru were used to investigate the effects of gender and lifestyle patterns on nutritional status. Two community-dwelling samples were selected for study, representative of divergent lifestyles in terms of their combination of socio-economic, demographic and cultural contexts, plus an ad-hoc sample of institutionalized individuals with controlled food intake and reduced physical activity. Results suggest that differences in socio-demographic, behavioral and functional characteristics exist between the sexes and across settings (low- vs. highland) and lifestyles (institutionalized vs. community-dwelling; semi-urban vs. rural). These factors are likely to be related to diverging dietary and physical activity patterns, and have considerable effects on the nutritional status of the respondents.

Nutrient Patterns and Their Association with Socio-Demographic, Lifestyle Factors and Obesity Risk in Rural South African Adolescents

PubMed Central

Pisa, Pedro T.; Pedro, Titilola M.; Kahn, Kathleen; Tollman, Stephen M.; Pettifor, John M.; Norris, Shane A.

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify and describe the diversity of nutrient patterns and how they associate with socio-demographic and lifestyle factors including body mass index in rural black South African adolescents. Nutrient patterns were identified from quantified food frequency questionnaires (QFFQ) in 388 rural South African adolescents between the ages of 11–15 years from the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS). Principle Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to 25 nutrients derived from QFFQs. Multiple linear regression and partial R2 models were fitted and computed respectively for each of the retained principal component (PC) scores on socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics including body mass index (BMI) for age Z scores. Four nutrient patterns explaining 79% of the total variance were identified: PCI (26%) was characterized by animal derived nutrients; PC2 (21%) by vitamins, fibre and vegetable oil nutrients; PC3 (19%) by both animal and plant derived nutrients (mixed diet driven nutrients); and PC4 (13%) by starch and folate. A positive and significant association was observed with BMI for age Z scores per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in PC1 (0.13 (0.02; 0.24); p = 0.02) and PC4 (0.10 (−0.01; 0.21); p = 0.05) scores only. We confirmed variability in nutrient patterns that were significantly associated with various lifestyle factors including obesity. PMID:25984738

Loco or no loco? Holocene climatic fluctuations, human demography and community base management of coastal resources in northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoro, Calogero M.; Gayo, Eugenia M.; Carter, Chris; Standen, Vivien G.; Castro, Victoria; Valenzuela, Daniela; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Marquet, Pablo A.; Latorre, Claudio

2017-10-01

The abundance of the southern Pacific mollusk loco (Concholepas concholepas), among other conspicuous marine supplies, are often cited as critical resources behind the long-term cultural and demographic fluctuations of prehistoric hunter-gatherers at the coastal Atacama Desert. These societies inhabited one of the world’s most productive marine environments flanked by one the world’s driest deserts. Both of these environments have witnessed significant ecological variation since people first colonized them at the end of the Pleistocene (c. 13,000 cal yr BP). Here, we examine the relationship between the relative abundance of shellfish (a staple resource) along a 9,500-year sequence of archaeological shell midden accumulations at Caleta (a small inlet or cove) Vitor, with past demographic trends (established via summed probability distributions of radiocarbon ages) and technological innovations together with paleoceanographic data on past primary productivity. We find that shellfish extraction varied considerably from one cultural period to the next in terms of the number of species and their abundance, with diversity increasing during periods of regionally decreased productivity. Such shifts in consumption patterns are considered community based management decisions, and for the most part they were synchronous with large and unusual regional demographic fluctuations experienced by prehistoric coastal societies in northern Chile. When taken together with their technological innovations, our data illustrates how these human groups tailored their socio-cultural patterns to what were often abrupt and prolonged environmental changes throughout the Holocene.

Population momentum across vertebrate life histories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, D.N.; Grand, J.B.; Arnold, J.M.

2006-01-01

Population abundance is critically important in conservation, management, and demographic theory. Thus, to better understand how perturbations to the life history affect long-term population size, we examined population momentum for four vertebrate classes with different life history strategies. In a series of demographic experiments we show that population momentum generally has a larger effect on long-term population size for organisms with long generation times than for organisms with short generation times. However, patterns between population momentum and generation time varied across taxonomic groups and according to the life history parameter that was changed. Our findings indicate that momentum may be an especially important aspect of population dynamics for long-lived vertebrates, and deserves greater attention in life history studies. Further, we discuss the importance of population momentum in natural resource management, pest control, and conservation arenas. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and Trends in Domestic Violence in South Korea: Findings From National Surveys.

PubMed

Kim, Jae Yop; Oh, Sehun; Nam, Seok In

2016-05-01

To examine trends in the prevalence of domestic violence since 1997, 1 year prior to the introduction of legislative countermeasures and accompanying services in South Korea, and to analyze what socio-demographic characteristics of perpetrators contribute to spousal violence and whether there were any changes in risk factors over time. This study used two sets of nationally representative household samples: married or cohabiting couples of 1,540 from the 1999 national survey and 3,269 from the 2010 National Survey of Domestic Violence. Frequency analysis was used to measure the prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV), and cross-tabulation, correlation, and logistic regression analyses were used to look for socio-demographic risk factors of spousal physical violence and patterns of change over time. The frequency analysis showed that the IPV prevalence dropped by approximately 50%, from 34.1% in 1999 to 16.5% in 2010, though it was still higher than many other countries. The cross-tabulation and logistic regression analyses suggested that men with low socio-demographic characteristics were generally more violent, though this tendency did not apply to women. Instead, younger women seemed to be more violent than older women. Last, different levels of household income were associated with different levels of IPV in 2010, but no linear trend was detected. In this study, IPV prevalence trends and risk factors of two different time periods were discussed to provide implications for tackling the IPV problem. Future countermeasures must build on understanding about men with low socio-demographic status and younger women, who were more violent in marital relationships. © The Author(s) 2015.

Strategic Responses to Demographic Changes: Students, Faculty, and Patrons.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Robert A.

Demographic changes affecting college students, faculty, and patrons and responses to the changes are considered. For each of the three groups, attention is directed to factors influencing change within and outside the campus, options available to the campus, and strategies for responding to the demographic changes. To recruit new full-time…

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

PubMed Central

Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2013-01-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico.

PubMed

Grineski, Sara E; Collins, Timothy W; McDonald, Yolanda J; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

2015-02-01

Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed.

Evaluation of Teacher Candidates According to the Organization People Pattern

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuzu, Okan; Çaliskan, Nihat; Kuzu, Yasemin

2017-01-01

In this study, we evaluated teacher candidates' (TCs') behavior patterns according to the organization people pattern for some demographics such as gender, educational status, accommodation and income levels. We administered to 875 TCs the organization people pattern rating scale (OPPRS) and investigated whether behavior patterns differed…

Inferring the Structure of Social Contacts from Demographic Data in the Analysis of Infectious Diseases Spread

PubMed Central

Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Manfredi, Piero; Vespignani, Alessandro; Merler, Stefano

2012-01-01

Social contact patterns among individuals encode the transmission route of infectious diseases and are a key ingredient in the realistic characterization and modeling of epidemics. Unfortunately, the gathering of high quality experimental data on contact patterns in human populations is a very difficult task even at the coarse level of mixing patterns among age groups. Here we propose an alternative route to the estimation of mixing patterns that relies on the construction of virtual populations parametrized with highly detailed census and demographic data. We present the modeling of the population of 26 European countries and the generation of the corresponding synthetic contact matrices among the population age groups. The method is validated by a detailed comparison with the matrices obtained in six European countries by the most extensive survey study on mixing patterns. The methodology presented here allows a large scale comparison of mixing patterns in Europe, highlighting general common features as well as country-specific differences. We find clear relations between epidemiologically relevant quantities (reproduction number and attack rate) and socio-demographic characteristics of the populations, such as the average age of the population and the duration of primary school cycle. This study provides a numerical approach for the generation of human mixing patterns that can be used to improve the accuracy of mathematical models in the absence of specific experimental data. PMID:23028275

Dietary Patterns in Pregnancy in New Zealand—Influence of Maternal Socio-Demographic, Health and Lifestyle Factors

PubMed Central

Wall, Clare R.; Gammon, Cheryl S.; Bandara, Dinusha K.; Grant, Cameron C.; Atatoa Carr, Polly E.; Morton, Susan M. B.

2016-01-01

Exploration of dietary pattern associations within a multi-ethnic society context has been limited. We aimed to describe dietary patterns of 5664 pregnant women from the Growing Up in New Zealand study, and investigate associations between these patterns and maternal socio-demographic, place of birth, health and lifestyle factors. Participants completed a food frequency questionnaire prior to the birth of their child. Principal components analysis was used to extract dietary patterns and multivariable analyses used to determine associations. Four dietary components were extracted. Higher scores on, ‘Junk’ and ‘Traditional/White bread’, were associated with decreasing age, lower educational levels, being of Pacific or Māori ethnicity and smoking. Higher scores on, ‘Health conscious’ and ‘Fusion/Protein’, were associated with increasing age, better self-rated health, lower pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and not smoking. Higher scores on ‘Junk’ and ‘Health conscious’ were associated with being born in New Zealand (NZ), whereas higher scores on ‘Fusion/Protein’ was associated with being born outside NZ and being of non-European ethnicity, particularly Asian. High scores on the ‘Health conscious’ dietary pattern showed the highest odds of adherence to the pregnancy dietary guidelines. In this cohort of pregnant women different dietary patterns were associated with migration, ethnicity, socio-demographic characteristics, health behaviors and adherence to dietary guidelines. PMID:27213438

Dietary patterns in the French adult population: a study from the second French national cross-sectional dietary survey (INCA2) (2006-2007).

PubMed

Gazan, R; Béchaux, C; Crépet, A; Sirot, V; Drouillet-Pinard, P; Dubuisson, C; Havard, S

2016-07-01

Identification and characterisation of dietary patterns are needed to define public health policies to promote better food behaviours. The aim of this study was to identify the major dietary patterns in the French adult population and to determine their main demographic, socio-economic, nutritional and environmental characteristics. Dietary patterns were defined from food consumption data collected in the second French national cross-sectional dietary survey (2006-2007). Non-negative-matrix factorisation method, followed by a cluster analysis, was implemented to derive the dietary patterns. Logistic regressions were then used to determine their main demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Finally, nutritional profiles and contaminant exposure levels of dietary patterns were compared using ANOVA. Seven dietary patterns, with specific food consumption behaviours, were identified: 'Small eater', 'Health conscious', 'Mediterranean', 'Sweet and processed', 'Traditional', 'Snacker' and 'Basic consumer'. For instance, the Health-conscious pattern was characterised by a high consumption of low-fat and light products. Individuals belonging to this pattern were likely to be older and to have a better nutritional profile than the overall population, but were more exposed to many contaminants. Conversely, individuals of Snacker pattern were likely to be younger, consumed more highly processed foods, had a nutrient-poor profile but were exposed to a limited number of food contaminants. The study identified main dietary patterns in the French adult population with distinct food behaviours and specific demographic, socio-economic, nutritional and environmental features. Paradoxically, for better dietary patterns, potential health risks cannot be ruled out. Therefore, this study demonstrated the need to conduct a risk-benefit analysis to define efficient public health policies regarding diet.

The Voiceless Majority: A Pair of Docs on Paradox and Changing Demographics in the American Professorate Related to Shared Governance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krupar, Karen; Cook, Susan L.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the changing demographics among higher education faculty across the country and the impact of these changing demographics on faculty perceptions of assimilation, engagement, and participation in shared governance. Coupled for a review of the secondary survey and demographic data online, the researchers…

Population demographics, survival, and reporduction: Alaska sea otter research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monson, Daniel H.; Bodkin, James L.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M.T.; Siniff, D.B.; Maldini, Daniela; Calkins, Donald; Atkinson, Shannon; Meehan, Rosa

2004-01-01

The fundamental force behind population change is the balance between age-specific survival and reproductive rates. Thus, understanding population demographics is crucial when trying to interpret trends in population change over time. For many species, demographic rates change as the population’s status (i.e., relative to prey resources) varies. Indices of body condition indicative of individual energy reserves can be a useful gauge of population status. Integrated studies designed to measure (1) population trends; (2) current population status; and (3) demographic rates will provide the most complete picture of the factors driving observed population changes. In particular, estimates of age specific survival and reproduction in conjunction with measures of population change can be integrated into population matrix models useful in explaining observed trends. We focus here on the methods used to measure demographic rates in sea otters, and note the importance of comparable methods between studies. Next, we review the current knowledge of the influence of population status on demographic parameters. We end with examples of the power of matrix modeling as a tool to integrate various types of demographic information for detecting otherwise hard to detect changes in demographic parameters.

Genetic signals of past demographic changes and the history of oak populations in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodd, R. S.

2009-04-01

A retrospective view of species' demographic changes can inform on population stability through times of climatic change and the origins and spatial structure of genetic diversity in contemporary populations. The former provides the means to predict responses to future climatic change, while the latter allows us to infer the ability of populations to buffer the effects of reductions in population size and fragmentation. The approximately 1.8 my of the Pleistocene is believed to have had a significant impact on diversity through high rates of extinction during early glacial cycles and population expansions and contractions during the later cycles. In the Mediterranean basin, early emphasis on taxa with wide latitudinal ranges led to models of refugial sites and subsequent recolonization routes that could explain geographic patterns in genetic diversity, with a trend towards reduced genetic diversity in the north. More recently, the study of strictly Mediterranean taxa has revealed relictual sites that have persisted over very long periods of time, commonly relatively poor in diversity, but populations well differentiated from one site to another. In California, relatively little is known of the population dynamics of plant taxa during the Pleistocene glacial cycles, or to what extent differentiation today is a result of pre-Pleistocene events. For several animal taxa, differentiation between Coastal and Sierran taxa are believed to date to the Pliocene. Major demographic changes resulting in population isolation, bottlenecks, founder events and population expansions leave a genetic signal that can be detected through appropriate genetic markers and analyses. Such signals help to infer whether past climate fluctuations have had important effects on population demographics. Here, I will focus on key oak species of the California mediterranean climate zone. I will explore the likely effects of the last glacial maximum on oak populations using palaeoclimate and niche modeling together with analyses of population genetic structure. One of the major questions that will be addressed is whether populations have persisted over long periods of time and if the contemporary population structure has derived from events earlier than the Pleistocene. Population genetic structure will then be used to propose strategies that will optimize conservation of genetic resources.

Eating patterns in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil): an exploratory analysis.

PubMed

Cardoso, Letícia de Oliveira; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves; Melere, Cristiane; Luft, Vivian Cristine; Molina, Maria Del Carmen Bisi; Faria, Carolina Perim de; Benseñor, Isabela M; Matos, Sheila Maria Alvim; Fonseca, Maria de Jesus Mendes da; Griep, Rosane Harter; Chor, Dóra

2016-01-01

The food consumption of 15,071 public employees was analyzed in six Brazilian cities participating in the baseline for Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil, 2008-2010) with the aim of identifying eating patterns and their relationship to socio-demographic variables. Multiple correspondence and cluster analysis were applied. Four patterns were identified, with their respective frequencies: "traditional" (48%); "fruits and vegetables" (25%); "pastry shop" (24%); and "diet/light" (5%) The "traditional" and "pastry shop" patterns were more frequent among men, younger individuals, and those with less schooling. "Fruits and vegetables" and "diet/light" were more frequent in women, older individuals, and those with more schooling. Our findings show the inclusion of new items in the "traditional" pattern and the appearance of the "low sugar/low fat" pattern among the eating habits of Brazilian workers, and signal socio-demographic and regional differences.

Assessing patterns of fish demographics and habitat in stream networks

EPA Science Inventory

Effective habitat restoration planning requires correctly anticipating demographic responses to altered habitats. New applications of Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag technology to fish-habitat research have provided critical insights into fish movement, growth, and surv...

Plant colonization and survival along a hydrological gradient: demography and niche dynamics.

PubMed

Damgaard, Christian; Merlin, Amandine; Bonis, Anne

2017-01-01

Predicting the effect of a changing environment, e.g., caused by climate change, on realized niche dynamics, and consequently, biodiversity is a challenging scientific question that needs to be addressed. One promising approach is to use estimated demographic parameters for predicting plant abundance and occurrence probabilities. Using longitudinal pinpoint cover data sampled along a hydrological gradient in the Marais poitevin grasslands, France, the effect of the gradient on the demographic probabilities of colonization and survival was estimated. The estimated probabilities and calculated elasticities of survival and colonization covaried with the observed cover of the different species along the hydrological gradient. For example, the flooding tolerant grass A. stolonifera showed a positive response in both colonization and survival to flooding, and the hydrological gradient is clearly the most likely explanation for the occurrence pattern observed for A. stolonifera. The results suggest that knowledge on the processes of colonization and survival of the individual species along the hydrological gradient is sufficient for at least a qualitative understanding of species occurrences along the gradient. The results support the hypothesis that colonization has a predominant role for determining the ecological success along the hydrological gradient compared to survival. Importantly, the study suggests that it may be possible to predict the realized niche of different species from demographic studies. This is encouraging for the important endeavor of predicting realized niche dynamics.

Meeting the challenges of an aging workforce.

PubMed

Silverstein, Michael

2008-04-01

Demographic, labor market and economic forces are combining to produce increases in the number and percentage of U.S. workers 55 and older. In some ways these workers will be our most skilled and productive employees but in others the most vulnerable. The literature on aging and work was reviewed, including demographic trends, physical and cognitive changes, safety and performance, work ability, and retirement patterns. Older workers have more serious, but less frequent, workplace injuries and illnesses than younger ones. There is evidence that many of these problems can be prevented and their consequences reduced by anticipating the physical and cognitive changes of age. Many employers are aware that such efforts are necessary, but most have not yet addressed them. There is a need for implementation and evaluative research of programs and policies with four dimensions: the work environment, work arrangements and work-life balance, health promotion and disease prevention, and social support. Employers who establish age-friendly workplaces that promote and support the work ability of employees as they age may gain in safety, productivity, competitiveness, and sustainable business practices. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Temporal dynamics of religion as a determinant of HIV infection in East Zimbabwe: a serial cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Manzou, Rumbidzai; Schumacher, Christina; Gregson, Simon

2014-01-01

Religion is an important underlying determinant of HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about how religion influences changes in HIV prevalence and associated sexual behaviours over time. To compare changes in HIV prevalence between major religious groups in eastern Zimbabwe during a period of substantial HIV risk reduction (1998-2005) and to investigate whether variations observed can be explained by differences in behaviour change. We analysed serial cross-sectional data from two rounds of a longitudinal population survey in eastern Zimbabwe. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were developed to compare differences in sexual behaviour and HIV prevalence between religious groups and to investigate changes over time controlling for potential confounders. Christian churches were the most popular religious grouping. Over time, Spiritualist churches increased in popularity and, for men, Traditional religion and no religion became less and more common, respectively. At baseline (1998-2000), HIV prevalence was higher in Traditionalists and in those with no religion than in people in Christian churches (men 26.7% and 23.8% vs. 17.5%, women: 35.4% and 37.5% vs. 24.1%). These effects were explained by differences in socio-demographic characteristics (for Traditional and men with no religion) or sexual behaviour (women with no religion). Spiritualist men (but not women) had lower HIV prevalence than Christians, after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics (14.4% vs. 17.5%, aOR = 0.8), due to safer behaviour. HIV prevalence had fallen in all religious groups at follow-up (2003-2005). Odds of infection in Christians reduced relative to those in other religious groups for both sexes, effects that were mediated largely by greater reductions in sexual-risk behaviour and, possibly, for women, by patterns of conversion between churches. Variation in behavioural responses to HIV between the major church groupings has contributed to a change in the religious pattern of infection in eastern Zimbabwe.

Temporal Dynamics of Religion as a Determinant of HIV Infection in East Zimbabwe: A Serial Cross-Sectional Analysis

PubMed Central

Manzou, Rumbidzai; Schumacher, Christina; Gregson, Simon

2014-01-01

Background Religion is an important underlying determinant of HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about how religion influences changes in HIV prevalence and associated sexual behaviours over time. Objectives To compare changes in HIV prevalence between major religious groups in eastern Zimbabwe during a period of substantial HIV risk reduction (1998–2005) and to investigate whether variations observed can be explained by differences in behaviour change. Methods We analysed serial cross-sectional data from two rounds of a longitudinal population survey in eastern Zimbabwe. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were developed to compare differences in sexual behaviour and HIV prevalence between religious groups and to investigate changes over time controlling for potential confounders. Results Christian churches were the most popular religious grouping. Over time, Spiritualist churches increased in popularity and, for men, Traditional religion and no religion became less and more common, respectively. At baseline (1998–2000), HIV prevalence was higher in Traditionalists and in those with no religion than in people in Christian churches (men 26.7% and 23.8% vs. 17.5%, women: 35.4% and 37.5% vs. 24.1%). These effects were explained by differences in socio-demographic characteristics (for Traditional and men with no religion) or sexual behaviour (women with no religion). Spiritualist men (but not women) had lower HIV prevalence than Christians, after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics (14.4% vs. 17.5%, aOR = 0.8), due to safer behaviour. HIV prevalence had fallen in all religious groups at follow-up (2003–2005). Odds of infection in Christians reduced relative to those in other religious groups for both sexes, effects that were mediated largely by greater reductions in sexual-risk behaviour and, possibly, for women, by patterns of conversion between churches. Conclusion Variation in behavioural responses to HIV between the major church groupings has contributed to a change in the religious pattern of infection in eastern Zimbabwe. PMID:24465868

Diet patterns are associated with demographic factors and nutritional status in South Indian children.

PubMed

Kehoe, Sarah H; Krishnaveni, Ghattu V; Veena, Sargoor R; Guntupalli, Aravinda M; Margetts, Barrie M; Fall, Caroline H D; Robinson, Sian M

2014-01-01

The burden of non-communicable chronic disease (NCD) in India is increasing. Diet and body composition 'track' from childhood into adult life and contribute to the development of risk factors for NCD. Little is known about the diet patterns of Indian children. We aimed to identify diet patterns and study associations with body composition and socio-demographic factors in the Mysore Parthenon Study cohort. We collected anthropometric and demographic data from children aged 9.5 years (n = 538). We also administered a food frequency questionnaire and measured fasting blood concentrations of folate and vitamin B12. Using principal component analysis, we identified two diet patterns. The 'snack and fruit' pattern was characterised by frequent intakes of snacks, fruit, sweetened drinks, rice and meat dishes and leavened breads. The 'lacto-vegetarian' pattern was characterised by frequent intakes of finger millet, vegetarian rice dishes, yoghurt, vegetable dishes and infrequent meat consumption. Adherence to the 'snack and fruit' pattern was associated with season, being Muslim and urban dwelling. Adherence to the lacto-vegetarian pattern was associated with being Hindu, rural dwelling and a lower maternal body mass index. The 'snack and fruit' pattern was negatively associated with the child's adiposity. The lacto-vegetarian pattern was positively associated with blood folate concentration and negatively with vitamin B12 concentration. This study provides new information on correlates of diet patterns in Indian children and how diet relates to nutritional status. Follow-up of these children will be important to determine the role of these differences in diet in the development of risk factors for NCD including body composition. © 2013 The Authors. Maternal and Child Nutrition published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Diet patterns are associated with demographic factors and nutritional status in South Indian children

PubMed Central

Kehoe, Sarah H; Krishnaveni, Ghattu V; Veena, Sargoor R; Guntupalli, Aravinda M; Margetts, Barrie M; Fall, Caroline HD; Robinson, Sian M

2014-01-01

The burden of non-communicable chronic disease (NCD) in India is increasing. Diet and body composition ‘track’ from childhood into adult life and contribute to the development of risk factors for NCD. Little is known about the diet patterns of Indian children. We aimed to identify diet patterns and study associations with body composition and socio-demographic factors in the Mysore Parthenon Study cohort. We collected anthropometric and demographic data from children aged 9.5 years (n = 538). We also administered a food frequency questionnaire and measured fasting blood concentrations of folate and vitamin B12. Using principal component analysis, we identified two diet patterns. The ‘snack and fruit’ pattern was characterised by frequent intakes of snacks, fruit, sweetened drinks, rice and meat dishes and leavened breads. The ‘lacto-vegetarian’ pattern was characterised by frequent intakes of finger millet, vegetarian rice dishes, yoghurt, vegetable dishes and infrequent meat consumption. Adherence to the ‘snack and fruit’ pattern was associated with season, being Muslim and urban dwelling. Adherence to the lacto-vegetarian pattern was associated with being Hindu, rural dwelling and a lower maternal body mass index. The ‘snack and fruit’ pattern was negatively associated with the child's adiposity. The lacto-vegetarian pattern was positively associated with blood folate concentration and negatively with vitamin B12 concentration. This study provides new information on correlates of diet patterns in Indian children and how diet relates to nutritional status. Follow-up of these children will be important to determine the role of these differences in diet in the development of risk factors for NCD including body composition. PMID:23819872

From endogenous to exogenous pattern formation: Invasive plant species changes the spatial distribution of a native ant.

PubMed

Li, Kevin; He, Yifan; Campbell, Susanna K; Colborn, A Shawn; Jackson, Eliot L; Martin, Austin; Monagan, Ivan V; Ong, Theresa Wei Ying; Perfecto, Ivette

2017-06-01

Invasive species are a significant threat to global biodiversity, but our understanding of how invasive species impact native communities across space and time remains limited. Based on observations in an old field in Southeast Michigan spanning 35 years, our study documents significant impacts of habitat change, likely driven by the invasion of the shrub, Elaeagnus umbellata, on the nest distribution patterns and population demographics of a native ant species, Formica obscuripes. Landcover change in aerial photographs indicates that E. umbellata expanded aggressively, transforming a large proportion of the original open field into dense shrubland. By comparing the ant's landcover preferences before and after the invasion, we demonstrate that this species experienced a significant unfavorable change in its foraging areas. We also find that shrub landcover significantly moderates aggression between nests, suggesting nests are more related where there is more E. umbellata. This may represent a shift in reproductive strategy from queen flights, reported in the past, to asexual nest budding. Our results suggest that E. umbellata may affect the spatial distribution of F. obscuripes by shifting the drivers of nest pattern formation from an endogenous process (queen flights), which led to a uniform pattern, to a process that is both endogenous (nest budding) and exogenous (loss of preferred habitat), resulting in a significantly different clustered pattern. The number and sizes of F. obscuripes nests in our study site are projected to decrease in the next 40 years, although further study of this population's colony structures is needed to understand the extent of this decrease. Elaeagnus umbellata is a common invasive shrub, and similar impacts on native species might occur in its invasive range, or in areas with similar shrub invasions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting global variation in infectious disease severity: A bottom-up approach.

PubMed

Jensen, Per M; De Fine Licht, Henrik H

2016-02-15

Understanding the underlying causes for the variation in case-fatality-ratios (CFR) is important for assessing the mechanism governing global disparity in the burden of infectious diseases. Variation in CFR is likely to be driven by factors such as population genetics, demography, transmission patterns and general health status. We present data here that support the hypothsis that changes in CFRs for specific diseases may be the result of serial passage through different hosts. For example passage through adults may lead to lower CFR, whereas passage through children may have the opposite effect. Accordingly changes in CFR may occur in parallel with demographic transitions. We explored the predictability of CFR using data obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) disease databases for four human diseases: mumps, malaria, tuberculosis and leptospirosis and assessed these for association with a range of population characteristics, such as crude birth and death rates, median age of the population, mean body mass index, proportion living in urban areas and tuberculosis vaccine coverage. We then tested this predictive model on Danish historical demographic and population data. Birth rates were the best predictor for mumps and malaria CFR. For tuberculosis CFR death rates were the best predictor and for leptospirosis population density was a significant predictor. CFR predictors differed among diseases according to their biology. We suggest that the overall result reflects an interaction between the forces driving demographic change and the virulence of human-to-human transmitted diseases. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

Substance use trends among active duty military personnel: findings from the United States Department of Defense Health Related Behavior Surveys, 1980-2005.

PubMed

Bray, Robert M; Hourani, Laurel L

2007-07-01

This study was designed to assess trends in cigarette, illicit drug, and heavy alcohol use among active-duty military personnel from 1980 to 2005 and to examine the influence of socio-demographic changes within the military on patterns of substance use. Substance use prevalence rates were estimated from cross-sectional data obtained from nine self-report surveys administered to more than 150 000 active-duty service members world-wide over a 25-year period. Direct standardization was used to adjust for socio-demographic changes. Measures included self-reported cigarette use, illicit drug use and heavy alcohol use in the 30 days prior to the survey. Heavy alcohol use was defined as drinking five or more drinks per typical drinking occasion at least once a week in the past 30 days. Cigarette and illicit drug use among military personnel declined sharply and significantly from 1980 to 1998. Heavy alcohol use decreased in the mid-1980s but was stable from 1988 to 1998. Both cigarette smoking and heavy alcohol use increased significantly between 1998 and 2002 and remained at those levels in 2005. Illicit drug use remained low. Logistic regression analyses indicated that trends were influenced by other factors besides socio-demographic changes across survey years. The military has made notable progress in decreasing cigarette smoking and illicit drug use, but has made less progress in reducing heavy alcohol use. Additional emphasis should be placed on understanding recent increases in substance use and on planning effective interventions and prevention programs to reduce use in this high-risk population.

Population differentiation in the context of Holocene climate change for a migratory marine species, the southern elephant seal.

PubMed

Corrigan, L J; Fabiani, A; Chauke, L F; McMahon, C R; de Bruyn, M; Bester, M N; Bastos, A; Campagna, C; Muelbert, M M C; Hoelzel, A R

2016-09-01

Understanding observed patterns of connectivity requires an understanding of the evolutionary processes that determine genetic structure among populations, with the most common models being associated with isolation by distance, allopatry or vicariance. Pinnipeds are annual breeders with the capacity for extensive range overlap during seasonal migrations, establishing the potential for the evolution of isolation by distance. Here, we assess the pattern of differentiation among six breeding colonies of the southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, based on mtDNA and 15 neutral microsatellite DNA markers, and consider measures of their demography and connectivity. We show that all breeding colonies are genetically divergent and that connectivity in this highly mobile pinniped is not strongly associated with geographic distance, but more likely linked to Holocene climate change and demographic processes. Estimates of divergence times between populations were all after the last glacial maximum, and there was evidence for directional migration in a clockwise pattern (with the prevailing current) around the Antarctic. We discuss the mechanisms by which climate change may have contributed to the contemporary genetic structure of southern elephant seal populations and the broader implications. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Alcohol and the economic crisis in Argentina: recent findings.

PubMed

Munné, Myriam I

2005-12-01

In 2002 Argentina participated in the GENACIS project (Gender, Alcohol, and Culture: An International Study) as one of the countries funded by the World Health Organization. Four questions about the current economic crisis in Argentina were added to the original GENACIS questionnaire in order to find out the opinions of the general population in relation to alcohol and the economic crisis. Gender differences in the answers to these questions were examined. Logistic regression was used to identify demographic, drinking pattern and drinking problems variables related significantly to responses to the economic crisis questions. During the economic crisis people stopped or reduced going to bars and instead drank at home or at friends' homes. A large number of respondents also reported that people had changed to cheaper or lower-quality alcoholic drinks. Women were more likely to agree with statements that the economic crisis had increased 'escape' drinking and required reductions in money spent on alcohol; men were more likely to agree that the crisis had led to less drinking in bars and to the purchase of cheaper or lower-quality alcoholic beverages. Respondents who reported having significant others with drinking-related problems were more likely to endorse all four statements about effects of the economic crisis on drinking behaviour. A qualitative approach was used to discuss themes in the general comments that were recorded by the interviewers while collecting data. A strongly moralistic attitude towards alcohol was present in these comments, especially among women. The findings suggest that the economic crisis in Argentina led to major changes in patterns of drinking that differed according to gender roles and other demographic variables. The long-term effects of these changes remain to be determined as economic circumstances improve.

Spatial and temporal genetic diversity of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis (Mitchill)) from Lake Huron and Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stott, Wendylee; Ebener, Mark P.; Mohr, Lloyd; Hartman, Travis; Johnson, Jim; Roseman, Edward F.

2013-01-01

Lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis (Mitchill)) are important commercially, culturally, and ecologically in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Stocks of lake whitefish in the Great Lakes have recovered from low levels of abundance in the 1960s. Reductions in abundance, loss of habitat and environmental degradation can be accompanied by losses of genetic diversity and overall fitness that may persist even as populations recover demographically. Therefore, it is important to be able to identify stocks that have reduced levels of genetic diversity. In this study, we investigated patterns of genetic diversity at microsatellite DNA loci in lake whitefish collected between 1927 and 1929 (historical period) and between 1997 and 2005 (contemporary period) from Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Genetic analysis of lake whitefish from Lakes Huron and Erie shows that the amount of population structuring varies from lake to lake. Greater genetic divergences among collections from Lake Huron may be the result of sampling scale, migration patterns and demographic processes. Fluctuations in abundance of lake whitefish populations may have resulted in periods of increased genetic drift that have resulted in changes in allele frequencies over time, but periodic genetic drift was not severe enough to result in a significant loss of genetic diversity. Migration among stocks may have decreased levels of genetic differentiation while not completely obscuring stock boundaries. Recent changes in spatial boundaries to stocks, the number of stocks and life history characteristics of stocks further demonstrate the potential of coregonids for a swift and varied response to environmental change and emphasise the importance of incorporating both spatial and temporal considerations into management plans to ensure that diversity is preserved.

A population-based longitudinal study on the implication of demographic changes on blood donation and transfusion demand.

PubMed

Greinacher, Andreas; Weitmann, Kerstin; Schönborn, Linda; Alpen, Ulf; Gloger, Doris; Stangenberg, Wolfgang; Stüpmann, Kerstin; Greger, Nico; Kiefel, Volker; Hoffmann, Wolfgang

2017-06-13

Transfusion safety includes the risk of transmission of pathogens, appropriate transfusion thresholds, and sufficient blood supply. All industrialized countries experience major ongoing demographic changes resulting from low birth rates and aging of the baby boom generation. Little evidence exists about whether future blood supply and demand correlate with these demographic changes. The ≥50% decline in birth rate in the eastern part of Germany after 1990 facilitates systematic study of the effects of pronounced demographic changes on blood donation and demand. In this prospective, 10-year longitudinal study, we enrolled all whole blood donors and all patients receiving red blood cell transfusions in the state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. We compared projections made in 2005 based on the projected demographic changes with: (1) number and age distribution of blood donors and transfusion recipients in 2015 and (2) blood demand within specific age and patient groups. Blood donation rates closely followed the demographic changes, showing a decrease of -18% (vs projected -23%). In contrast, 2015 transfusion rates were -21.3% lower than projected. We conclude that although changes in demography are highly predictive for the blood supply, transfusion demand is strongly influenced by changes in medical practice. Given ongoing pronounced demographic change, regular monitoring of the donor/recipient age distributions and associated impact on blood demand/supply relationships is required to allow strategic planning to prevent blood shortages or overproduction.

Counting Souls: Towards an historical demography of Africa

PubMed Central

Walters, Sarah

2016-01-01

Background Little is known about even the relatively recent demographic history of Africa, because of the lack of data. Elsewhere, historical demographic trends have been reconstructed by applying family reconstitution to church records. Such data also exist throughout Africa from the late 19th century. For the Counting Souls Project, nearly one million records from the oldest Catholic parishes in East and Central Africa have been digitised. These data are currently being processed into a relational database. The aim of this paper is to describe their potential for demographic reconstruction in the region, and to outline how their provenance defines the analytical approach. Results Empirically, religion is correlated with population patterns in contemporary Africa, and, historically, reproduction and family formation were central to Christian mission in the region. Measuring change using sources created by agents of change raises questions of epistemology, causation, and selection bias. This paper describes how these concerns are balanced by missionary determination to follow the intimate lives of their parishioners, to monitor their ‘souls’, and to measure their morality, fidelity, and faith. This intimate recording means that the African parish registers, together with related sources such as missionary diaries and letters and oral histories, describe qualitatively and quantitatively what happens to individual agency (reproductive decision-making) when the moral hegemony shifts (via evangelisation and colonisation), and how the two interact in a reciprocal process of change. Conclusion Reconstructing long-term demographic trends using parish registers in Africa is therefore more than simply generating rates and testing their reliability. It is a bigger description of how ‘decision rules’ are structured and re-structured, unpicking the cognitive seam between individual and culture by exploring dynamic micro-interactions between reproduction, honour, hope, and modernity over the long term. With such a mixed-methods approach, parish registers offer real potential for historical demography in Africa. PMID:27313490

Seasonal patterns of weight, hematology, and serum characteristics of free-ranging female white-tailed deer in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

DelGiudice, G.D.; Mech, L.D.; Kunkel, K.E.; Gese, E.M.; Seal, U.S.

1992-01-01

Weights, hematology, and serum profIles of white-tailed does in the central Superior National Forest of northeastern Minnesota were examined year-around to determine seasonal patterns of nutritional condition and metabolism. Deer were initially captured by Clover trap or rocket net. Between 15 February 1989 and 23 January 1990, we recaptured 12 adult (> 1.5 years) female deer 1-9 times each (a total of 59 recaptures) using a radio-controlled capture collar. Monthly weights of deer exhibited a cyclic seasonal pattern. Mean weight declined 22 % from February to an annual minimum during May, then steadily increased 45 % to a maximum in October. Seasonal patterns were most evident for hemoglobin concentration, red blood cells, packed cell volume, serum total protein, urea nitrogen, creatinine, the urea N to creatinine ratio, triiodothyronine, cortisol, and potassium. Wide seasonal variations of these characteristics were indicative of shifts in the deer's metabolic physiology. Although seasonal metabolic shifts are partially attributable to an endogenous rhythm, the intensity of, their expression was most likely affected by nutritional changes and concomitant alterations of body condition. Annual changes in seasonal trends of blood characteristics may be useful in investigating nutritional effects of specific environmental and demographic factors. We compare our findings with those reported for deer on ranges farther south.

Correlates of US adult physical activity and sedentary behavior patterns.

PubMed

Jones, Sydney A; Wen, Fang; Herring, Amy H; Evenson, Kelly R

2016-12-01

Physical activity and sedentary behavior patterns may be differentially associated with socio-demographic and health measures. We explored correlates of day-to-day patterns over a week in accelerometer measured physical activity and sedentary behavior to inform intervention development. Cross-sectional study. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) adult participants (≥20 years) in 2003-2006 wore an accelerometer for 1 week. Accelerometer data from 7236 participants were used to derive latent classes describing day-to-day patterns over a week of physical activity and sedentary behavior. Correlates of each pattern were identified using multinomial logistic regression from 21 potential variables grouped into four domains: socio-demographic, acculturation, cardiovascular, and health history. Older age, female sex, higher body mass index, and history of chronic disease were consistently associated with lower odds of being in a more active compared to the least active class. In contrast, being employed, speaking Spanish at home, and having better self-rated health were associated with higher odds of being in a more active compared to the least active class. Correlates of physical activity and sedentary behavior patterns were identified from all domains (socio-demographic, acculturation, cardiovascular, and health history). Most correlates that were positively associated with physical activity were negatively associated with sedentary behavior. Better understanding of the correlates of physical activity and sedentary behavior patterns can inform interventions to promote physical activity and reduce sedentary behavior. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fertility decline and the changing dynamics of wealth, status and inequality.

PubMed

Colleran, Heidi; Jasienska, Grazyna; Nenko, Ilona; Galbarczyk, Andrzej; Mace, Ruth

2015-05-07

In the course of demographic transitions (DTs), two large-scale trends become apparent: (i) the broadly positive association between wealth, status and fertility tends to reverse, and (ii) wealth inequalities increase and then temporarily decrease. We argue that these two broad patterns are linked, through a diversification of reproductive strategies that subsequently converge as populations consume more, become less self-sufficient and increasingly depend on education as a route to socio-economic status. We examine these links using data from 22 mid-transition communities in rural Poland. We identify changing relationships between fertility and multiple measures of wealth, status and inequality. Wealth and status generally have opposing effects on fertility, but these associations vary by community. Where farming remains a viable livelihood, reproductive strategies typical of both pre- and post-DT populations coexist. Fertility is lower and less variable in communities with lower wealth inequality, and macro-level patterns in inequality are generally reproduced at the community level. Our results provide a detailed insight into the changing dynamics of wealth, status and inequality that accompany DTs at the community level where peoples' social and economic interactions typically take place. We find no evidence to suggest that women with the most educational capital gain wealth advantages from reducing fertility, nor that higher educational capital delays the onset of childbearing in this population. Rather, these patterns reflect changing reproductive preferences during a period of profound economic and social change, with implications for our understanding of reproductive and socio-economic inequalities in transitioning populations.

How should Malaysia respond to its ageing society?

PubMed

Forsyth, D R; Chia, Y C

2009-03-01

As Malaysia ages its health and social care systems will have to adapt to a changing pattern of disease and dependency. Improved public health measures extend life expectancy at the relative expense of increased prevalence of currently incurable conditions such as dementia and Parkinson's disease. In this article we discuss how these demographic changes will impact and suggest possible means of coping with the altered epidemiology of disease and disability. Malaysia will need to swiftly develop sufficient expertise in acute Geriatric Medicine, rehabilitation of older people; the management of long-term conditions in older people with multiple complex problems within Primary Care; as well as an infrastructure for home and institutional care.

Aedes aegypti in south Vietnam: ecology, genetic structure, vectorial competence and resistance to insecticides.

PubMed

Huber, Karine; Le Loan, Luu; Hoang, Tran Huu; Tien, Tran Khanh; Rodhain, François; Failloux, Anna-Bella

2003-03-01

In Vietnam, dengue hemorrhagic fever has been detected since the 1950s. In Southeast Asia, urban centers expanded rapidly in an uncontrolled and unplanned way. The Aedes aegypti populations and dengue viruses thrived in these new ecological and demographic settings. The result of these changes was a greatly extended geographic distribution, increased densities of Ae. aegypti and the maintenance of the four dengue serotypes leading to a dramatic increase in dengue transmission. To assess the role of the vector in the changing pattern of the disease in Southeast Asia, we studied the ecology of Ae. aegypti, genetic differentiation, variability in competence as a vector for dengue 2 virus, and resistance to insecticides.

Scaling in sensitivity analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Doherty, P.F.

2002-01-01

Population matrix models allow sets of demographic parameters to be summarized by a single value 8, the finite rate of population increase. The consequences of change in individual demographic parameters are naturally measured by the corresponding changes in 8; sensitivity analyses compare demographic parameters on the basis of these changes. These comparisons are complicated by issues of scale. Elasticity analysis attempts to deal with issues of scale by comparing the effects of proportional changes in demographic parameters, but leads to inconsistencies in evaluating demographic rates. We discuss this and other problems of scaling in sensitivity analysis, and suggest a simple criterion for choosing appropriate scales. We apply our suggestions to data for the killer whale, Orcinus orca.

Beyond drinking: differential effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors on alcohol-related adverse consequences across European countries.

PubMed

Kuendig, Hervé; Plant, Moira L; Plant, Martin A; Kuntsche, Sandra; Miller, Patrick; Gmel, Gerhard; Ahlström, Salme; Bergmark, Karin Helmersson; Olafsdóttir, Hildigunnur; Elekes, Zsuzsanna; Csemy, Ladislav; Knibbe, Ronald

2008-01-01

Evidence underlines the importance of drinking patterns and individual characteristics in experiencing adverse alcohol-related consequences; however, little research has been conducted to explore who does and who does not experience consequences with similar drinking patterns. Using data from seven European countries, this study assesses the association between demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and six adverse consequences. Conditional logistic regression models were estimated, cases (experiencing a consequence) being matched to controls (not experiencing the consequence) by drinking patterns. In general, protective effects with increasing age and being in a partnership were consistent. Gender effects were mixed, but mainly protective for women. Educational achievement and economic status showed consistent effects across countries, but different directions of effect across consequences. Consequences mostly associated with individual drinking pattern (injury, blackout, and loss of control over drinking) exhibited similar patterns of associations, but varying ones arose for consequences additionally influenced by societal reaction to drinking (guilt, role failure, and pressure to cut down drinking). Differences in strengths and directions of effects across consequences pointed to the possibility that the reporting of adverse consequences is not only influenced by alcohol consumption, but also by attributional processes related to demographic and socioeconomic statuses. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Demographic Divergence History of Pied Flycatcher and Collared Flycatcher Inferred from Whole-Genome Re-sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Olason, Pall I.; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2013-01-01

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000–80,000) and census sizes (5–50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species. PMID:24244198

Demographic divergence history of pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher inferred from whole-genome re-sequencing data.

PubMed

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Olason, Pall I; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2013-11-01

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000-80,000) and census sizes (5-50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species.

Effects of Demographic History on the Detection of Recombination Hotspots from Linkage Disequilibrium

PubMed Central

Dapper, Amy L; Payseur, Bret A

2018-01-01

Abstract In some species, meiotic recombination is concentrated in small genomic regions. These “recombination hotspots” leave signatures in fine-scale patterns of linkage disequilibrium, raising the prospect that the genomic landscape of hotspots can be characterized from sequence variation. This approach has led to the inference that hotspots evolve rapidly in some species, but are conserved in others. Historic demographic events, such as population bottlenecks, are known to affect patterns of linkage disequilibrium across the genome, violating population genetic assumptions of this approach. Although such events are prevalent, demographic history is generally ignored when making inferences about the evolution of recombination hotspots. To determine the effect of demography on the detection of recombination hotspots, we use the coalescent to simulate haplotypes with a known recombination landscape. We measure the ability of popular linkage disequilibrium-based programs to detect hotspots across a range of demographic histories, including population bottlenecks, hidden population structure, population expansions, and population contractions. We find that demographic events have the potential to greatly reduce the power and increase the false positive rate of hotspot discovery. Neither the power nor the false positive rate of hotspot detection can be predicted without also knowing the demographic history of the sample. Our results suggest that ignoring demographic history likely overestimates the power to detect hotspots and therefore underestimates the degree of hotspot sharing between species. We suggest strategies for incorporating demographic history into population genetic inferences about recombination hotspots. PMID:29045724

Christian Schools and Demographic Change: Two Case Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huyser, Mackenzi; Boerman-Cornell, Bill; DeBoer, Kendra

2011-01-01

This article explores how two Christian school systems have responded to neighborhood demographic change. Researchers conducted interviews, attended meetings, and reviewed documents to explore two case studies--one of a school struggling to redefine its identity, purpose, and vision in response to demographic change, and another school that has…

Life history tactics shape amphibians' demographic responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

PubMed

Cayuela, Hugo; Joly, Pierre; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Pichenot, Julian; Bonnaire, Eric; Priol, Pauline; Peyronel, Olivier; Laville, Mathias; Besnard, Aurélien

2017-11-01

Over the last three decades, climate abnormalities have been reported to be involved in biodiversity decline by affecting population dynamics. A growing number of studies have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences the demographic parameters of a wide range of plant and animal taxa in different ways. Life history theory could help to understand these different demographic responses to the NAO. Indeed, theory states that the impact of weather variation on a species' demographic traits should depend on its position along the fast-slow continuum. In particular, it is expected that NAO would have a higher impact on recruitment than on adult survival in slow species, while the opposite pattern is expected occur in fast species. To test these predictions, we used long-term capture-recapture datasets (more than 15,000 individuals marked from 1965 to 2015) on different surveyed populations of three amphibian species in Western Europe: Triturus cristatus, Bombina variegata, and Salamandra salamandra. Despite substantial intraspecific variation, our study revealed that these three species differ in their position on a slow-fast gradient of pace of life. Our results also suggest that the differences in life history tactics influence amphibian responses to NAO fluctuations: Adult survival was most affected by the NAO in the species with the fastest pace of life (T. cristatus), whereas recruitment was most impacted in species with a slower pace of life (B. variegata and S. salamandra). In the context of climate change, our findings suggest that the capacity of organisms to deal with future changes in NAO values could be closely linked to their position on the fast-slow continuum. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fluid intake patterns of children and adolescents: results of six Liq.In7 national cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Morin, C; Gandy, J; Brazeilles, R; Moreno, L A; Kavouras, S A; Martinez, H; Salas-Salvadó, J; Bottin, J; Guelinckx, Isabelle

2018-06-01

This study aimed to identify and characterize patterns of fluid intake in children and adolescents from six countries: Argentina, Brazil, China, Indonesia, Mexico and Uruguay. Data on fluid intake volume and type amongst children (4-9 years; N = 1400) and adolescents (10-17 years; N = 1781) were collected using the validated 7-day fluid-specific record (Liq.In 7 record). To identify relatively distinct clusters of subjects based on eight fluid types (water, milk and its derivatives, hot beverages, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB), 100% fruit juices, artificial/non-nutritive sweetened beverages, alcoholic beverages, other beverages), a cluster analysis (partitioning around k-medoids algorithm) was used. Clusters were then characterized according to their socio-demographics and lifestyle indicators. The six interpretable clusters identified were: low drinkers-SSB (n 523), low drinkers-water and milk (n 615), medium mixed drinkers (n 914), high drinkers-SSB (n 513), high drinkers-water (n 352) and very high drinkers-water (n 264). Country of residence was the dominant characteristic, followed by socioeconomic level, in all six patterns. This analysis showed that consumption of water and SSB were the primary drivers of the clusters. In addition to country, socio-demographic and lifestyle factors played a role in determining the characteristics of each cluster. This information highlights the need to target interventions in particular populations aimed at changing fluid intake behavior and improving health in children and adolescents.

Examining the Cross-Roads: School Segregation in Indiana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moon, Jodi S.; Krull, Lauren

2017-01-01

Demographics in the U.S. have changed dramatically over the last three decades. Indiana's demographics are changing, too--albeit less dramatically. To explore how demographic shifts are changing the composition of Indiana's schools, the Center for Evaluation and Education Policy (CEEP) uses Common Core of Data (CCD) school enrollment data from the…

One size (never) fits all: segment differences observed following a school-based alcohol social marketing program.

PubMed

Dietrich, Timo; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Leo, Cheryl; Connor, Jason

2015-04-01

According to commercial marketing theory, a market orientation leads to improved performance. Drawing on the social marketing principles of segmentation and audience research, the current study seeks to identify segments to examine responses to a school-based alcohol social marketing program. A sample of 371 year 10 students (aged: 14-16 years; 51.4% boys) participated in a prospective (pre-post) multisite alcohol social marketing program. Game On: Know Alcohol (GO:KA) program included 6, student-centered, and interactive lessons to teach adolescents about alcohol and strategies to abstain or moderate drinking. A repeated measures design was used. Baseline demographics, drinking attitudes, drinking intentions, and alcohol knowledge were cluster analyzed to identify segments. Change on key program outcome measures and satisfaction with program components were assessed by segment. Three segments were identified; (1) Skeptics, (2) Risky Males, (3) Good Females. Segments 2 and 3 showed greatest change in drinking attitudes and intentions. Good Females reported highest satisfaction with all program components and Skeptics lowest program satisfaction with all program components. Three segments, each differing on psychographic and demographic variables, exhibited different change patterns following participation in GO:KA. Post hoc analysis identified that satisfaction with program components differed by segment offering opportunities for further research. © 2015, American School Health Association.

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mikle, Nathaniel; Graves, Tabitha A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Macleod, Amy C.

2016-01-01

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

PubMed Central

Kovach, Ryan; Kendall, Katherine C.; Macleod, Amy C.

2016-01-01

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral. PMID:27655768

Determinants of changes in dietary patterns among Chinese immigrants: a cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Rosenmöller, Doenja L; Gasevic, Danijela; Seidell, Jaap; Lear, Scott A

2011-05-18

Chinese individuals who have immigrated to a Western country initially tend to have a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared to people who are already living there. Some studies have found, however, that CVD risk increases over time in immigrants and that immigration to a western country is associated with changes in dietary patterns. This could have unfavourable effects on the risk of CVD. There is limited knowledge on the food patterns, awareness and knowledge about healthy nutrition among Chinese immigrants. The objective for this study is to explore changes in food patterns, and levels of awareness and knowledge of healthy nutrition by length of residence among Chinese immigrants to Canada. 120 Chinese individuals born in China but currently living in Canada completed an assessment on socio-demographic characteristics, changes in dietary patterns and variables of awareness and knowledge about healthy foods. With ordinal logistic regression the associations between the quartiles of length of residence and dietary patterns, variables of awareness and knowledge about healthy foods were explored, adjusting for age, sex, education and body mass index. More than 50% of the participants reported increasing consumption of fruits and vegetables, decreasing the use of deep-frying after immigration. Increased awareness and knowledge about healthy foods was reported by more than 50% of the participants. Ordinal regression indicated that Chinese immigrants who lived in Canada the longest, compared to Chinese immigrants who lived in Canada the shortest, consumed significant greater portion sizes (OR: 9.9; 95% CI: 3.11 - 31.15), dined out more frequently (OR: 15.8; 95% CI: 5.0 - 49.85), and consumed convenience foods more often (OR: 3.5; 95% CI: 1.23 - 10.01). Chinese immigrants reported some favourable changes in their dietary intake and greater awareness and more knowledge about healthy foods after immigration. However, an increase in portion size, an increased frequency of dining out and an increased consumption of convenience foods could indicate some unfavourable changes. These results suggest that health promotion strategies should build on the observed benefits of improved nutritional knowledge and target areas of portion size and convenience eating.

Effects of population succession on demographic and genetic processes: predictions and tests in the daylily Hemerocallis thunbergii (Liliaceae).

PubMed

Chung, Mi Yoon; Nason, John D; Chung, Myong Gi

2007-07-01

Spatial genetic structure within plant populations is influenced by variation in demographic processes through space and time, including a population's successional status. To determine how demographic structure and fine-scale genetic structure (FSGS) change with stages in a population's successional history, we studied Hemerocallis thunbergii (Liliaceae), a nocturnal flowering and hawkmoth-pollinated herbaceous perennial with rapid population turnover dynamics. We examined nine populations assigned to three successive stages of population succession: expansion, maturation, and senescence. We developed stage-specific expectations for within-population demographic and genetic structure, and then for each population quantified the spatial aggregation of individuals and genotypes using spatial autocorrelation methods (nonaccumulative O-ring and kinship statistics, respectively), and at the landscape level measured inbreeding and genetic structure using Wright's F-statistics. Analyses using the O-ring statistic revealed significant aggregation of individuals at short spatial scales in expanding and senescing populations, in particular, which may reflect restricted seed dispersal around maternal individuals combined with relatively low local population densities at these stages. Significant FSGS was found for three of four expanding, no mature, and only one senescing population, a pattern generally consistent with expectations of successional processes. Although allozyme genetic diversity was high within populations (mean %P = 78.9 and H(E) = 0.281), landscape-level differentiation among sites was also high (F(ST) = 0.166) and all populations exhibited a significant deficit of heterozygotes relative to Hardy-Weinberg expectations (range F = 0.201-0.424, mean F(IS) = 0.321). Within populations, F was not correlated with the degree of FSGS, thus suggesting inbreeding due primarily to selfing as opposed to mating among close relatives in spatially structured populations. Our results demonstrate considerable variation in the spatial distribution of individuals and patterns and magnitude of FSGS in H. thunbergii populations across the landscape. This variation is generally consistent with succession-stage-specific differences in ecological processes operating within these populations.

Demographic histories of adaptively diverged riparian and non-riparian species of Ainsliaea (Asteraceae) inferred from coalescent analyses using multiple nuclear loci.

PubMed

Mitsui, Yuki; Setoguchi, Hiroaki

2012-12-28

Understanding demographic histories, such as divergence time, patterns of gene flow, and population size changes, in ecologically diverging lineages provide implications for the process and maintenance of population differentiation by ecological adaptation. This study addressed the demographic histories in two independently derived lineages of flood-resistant riparian plants and their non-riparian relatives [Ainsliaea linearis (riparian) and A. apiculata (non-riparian); A. oblonga (riparian) and A. macroclinidioides (non-riparian); Asteraceae] using an isolation-with-migration (IM) model based on variation at 10 nuclear DNA loci. The highest posterior probabilities of the divergence time parameters were estimated to be ca. 25,000 years ago for A. linearis and A. apiculata and ca. 9000 years ago for A. oblonga and A. macroclinidioides, although the confidence intervals of the parameters had broad ranges. The likelihood ratio tests detected evidence of historical gene flow between both riparian/non-riparian species pairs. The riparian populations showed lower levels of genetic diversity and a significant reduction in effective population sizes compared to the non-riparian populations and their ancestral populations. This study showed the recent origins of flood-resistant riparian plants, which are remarkable examples of plant ecological adaptation. The recent divergence and genetic signatures of historical gene flow among riparian/non-riparian species implied that they underwent morphological and ecological differentiation within short evolutionary timescales and have maintained their species boundaries in the face of gene flow. Comparative analyses of adaptive divergence in two sets of riparian/non-riparian lineages suggested that strong natural selection by flooding had frequently reduced the genetic diversity and size of riparian populations through genetic drift, possibly leading to fixation of adaptive traits in riparian populations. The two sets of riparian/non-riparian lineages showed contrasting patterns of gene flow and genetic differentiation, implying that each lineage showed different degrees of reproductive isolation and that they had experienced unique evolutionary and demographic histories in the process of adaptive divergence.

How do drug market changes affect characteristics of injecting initiation and subsequent patterns of drug use? Findings from a cohort of regular heroin and methamphetamine injectors in Melbourne, Australia.

PubMed

Horyniak, Danielle; Stoové, Mark; Degenhardt, Louisa; Aitken, Campbell; Kerr, Thomas; Dietze, Paul

2015-01-01

Changes in drug market characteristics have been shown to affect drug use patterns but few studies have examined their impacts on injecting initiation experiences and subsequent patterns of injecting drug use (IDU). We collected data on self-reported injecting initiation experiences and past-month patterns of IDU from 688 regular heroin and methamphetamine injectors in Melbourne, Australia, who initiated injecting across three different drug market periods (prior to the Australian heroin shortage ('high heroin')/immediately following the shortage ('low heroin')/'contemporary' markets (fluctuating heroin and methamphetamine availability)). We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression to examine the relationship between period of injecting initiation and first drug injected, and multinomial logistic regression for the relationship between period of injecting initiation and current injecting patterns. 425 participants (62%) reported initiating injecting in the high heroin period, 146 (21%) in the low heroin period, and 117 (17%) in the contemporary period. Participants who initiated injecting during the low heroin period were twice as likely to initiate injecting using a drug other than heroin (AOR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.27-2.95). The most common patterns of drug use among study participants in the month preceding interview were polydrug use (44%) and primary heroin use (41%). Injecting initiation period was either non-significantly or weakly associated with current drug use pattern, which was more strongly associated with other socio-demographic and drug use characteristics, particularly self-reported drug of choice. The drug market period in which injecting initiation occurred influenced the first drug injected and influenced some aspects of subsequent drug use. In the context of highly dynamic drug markets in which polydrug use is common there is a need for broad harm reduction and drug treatment services which are flexible and responsive to changing patterns of drug use. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Framing of Animal Farming and Meat Consumption: On the Diversity of Topics Used and Qualitative Patterns in Selected Demographic Contexts.

PubMed

Nijland, Hanneke J; Aarts, Noelle; van Woerkum, Cees M J

2018-01-24

In various contexts, people talk about animal farming and meat consumption using different arguments to construct and justify their (non-)acceptability. This article presents the results of an in-depth qualitative inquiry into the content of and contextual patterns in the everyday-life framing regarding this issue, performed among consumers in various settings in two extremes in the European sphere: the Netherlands and Turkey. We describe the methodological steps of collecting, coding, and organizing the variety of encountered framing topics, as well as our search for symbolic convergence in groups of consumers from different selected demographic contexts (country, urban-rural areas, gender, age, and education level). The framing of animal farming and meat consumption in everyday-life is not a simple one-issue rational display of facts; people referred to a vast range of topics in the categories knowledge, convictions, pronounced behaviour, values, norms, interests, and feelings. Looking at framing in relation to the researched demographic contexts, most patterns were found on the level of topics; symbolic convergence in lines of reasoning and composite framing was less prominent in groups based on single demographic contexts than anticipated. An explanation for this lies in the complexity of frame construction, happening in relation with multiple interdependent contextual features.

The Relationship between Addiction and Socio-demographic Characteristics of Iranian Newcomer Prisoners

PubMed Central

Amiri, Mehdi; Dejman, Masoumeh; Dastoury, Mojgan; Roushanfekr, Payam

2014-01-01

Prison has proven to be a suitable environment for the identification of various socio-demographic characteristics of those individuals whose drug use, or related crimes lead to incarceration. Furthermore, the prison environment could also support increased understanding of both the pattern and the relationship between drug use and the incidence of crime and deviances. Using the survey method, this study examines the socio-demographic features of 2200 prisoners in seven provinces of Iran. More specifically; drug abuse patterns and the relationship among addiction, crime prevalence, and some personal as well as socio-demographic characteristics were studied. According to the findings, characteristics such as age, education level, economic status, urban and/or rural status, all have an effects on the rate of drug use and, on crime commitment and its re-occurrence. Accordingly, younger age, lower socioeconomic status and urban residence showed a relationship with tendency to commit crime and repeat it while employment had no significant effect. PMID:24576377

Maternal responses to childhood fevers: a comparison of rural and urban residents in coastal Kenya.

PubMed

Molyneux, C S; Mung'Ala-Odera, V; Harpham, T; Snow, R W

1999-12-01

Urbanization is an important demographic phenomenon in sub-Saharan Africa, and rural-urban migration remains a major contributor to urban growth. In a context of sustained economic recession, these demographic processes have been associated with a rise in urban poverty and ill health. Developments in health service provision need to reflect new needs arising from demographic and disease ecology change. In malaria-endemic coastal Kenya, we compared lifelong rural (n = 248) and urban resident (n = 284) Mijikenda mothers' responses to childhood fevers. Despite marked differences between the rural and urban study areas in demographic structure and physical access to biomedical services, rural and urban mothers' treatment-seeking patterns were similar: most mothers sought only biomedical treatment (88%). Shop-bought medicines were used first or only in 69% of the rural and urban fevers that were treated, and government or private clinics were contacted in 49%. A higher proportion of urban informal vendors stocked prescription-only drugs, and urban mothers more likely to contact a private than a government facility. We conclude that improving self-treatment has enormous potential to reduce morbidity and mortality in low-income urban areas, as has frequently been argued for rural areas. However, because of the underlying socio-economic, cultural and structural differences between rural and urban areas, rural approaches to tackle this may have to be modified in urban environments.

Uncovering patterns of spring migration in the monarch butterfly using stable isotopes and demographic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, R.; Miller, N.; Wassenaar, L.; Hobson, K.

2010-12-01

Each spring, millions of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) migrate up to 3000 km from central Mexico to re-colonize eastern North America. However, despite centuries of research, the patterns of re-colonization are not well understood. We combined stable-hydrogen (δD) and -carbon (δ13C) isotope measurements with demographic models to test (1) whether individuals sampled in the northern part of the breeding range in the Great Lakes originate directly from Mexico or are second generation individuals born in the southern US and (2) to estimate whether populations on the eastern seaboard migrate longitudinally over the Appalachians or originate directly from the Gulf Coast. In the Great Lakes, we found that the majority of individuals were second-generation monarchs born in the Gulf Coast and Central regions of the US. However, 25% individuals originated directly from Mexico and we estimated that these individuals produced the majority of offspring born in the Great Lakes region during June. On the eastern seaboard, we found the majority of monarchs (88%) originated in the mid-west and Great Lakes regions, providing the first direct evidence that second generation monarchs born in June complete a (trans-) longitudinal migration across the Appalachian mountains. The remaining individuals (12%) originated from parents that migrated directly from the Gulf coast during early spring. Our results demonstrate how stable isotopes, when combined with ecological data, can provide insights into patterns of connectivity in migratory insects that have been impossible to test using conventional techniques. The migration patterns presented here have important implications for predicting future changes in population size and for developing effective conservation plans for this species.

Leisure time physical activity in Saudi Arabia: prevalence, pattern and determining factors.

PubMed

Amin, Tarek Tawfik; Al Khoudair, Ali Salah; Al Harbi, Mohammad Abdulwahab; Al Ali, Ahmed Radi

2012-01-01

Identification of reliable predictors of leisure time physical activity (LTPA) will enable healthcare providers to intervene and change the patterns of LTPA in the population to improve community health. The objectives of this study were to determine prevalence and pattern of LTPA among adult Saudis aged 18-65 years, and to define the socio-demographic determinants that correlate with LTPA in Al-Hassa, Saudi Arabia. A cross-sectional study of 2176 adult Saudis attending urban and rural primary health care centers were selected using a multistage proportionate sampling method. Participants were personally interviewed to gather information regarding socio-demographics, physical activity pattern using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ). Physical activity (PA) in each domain was expressed in metabolic equivalents (METs). The median total METs minutes/week for LTPA for both genders was 256, higher for men (636 METs minutes/week) compared to women (249 METs minutes/week). Overall, only 19.8% of the total PA was derived from LTPA. Of the sampled population 50.0% reported doing no leisure activity. Using the cut off of 600 METs-minutes/day or 150 minutes of moderate intensity over 5 or more days/week, only 21.0% of the included sample were considered as being sufficiently active and 10.4% were in the high active category with beneficial health effects. Multivariate regression analysis showed that male, younger age (<35 years), absence of chronic disease conditions and moderate level of total PA were significant predictors for being active in the LTPA domain. The prevalence and intensity of LTPA among the included sample demonstrated low levels. Nearly 80% of the included sample population did not achieve the recommended LTPA level with beneficial health effects. Female gender, urban residence and associated chronic diseases correlated with a low LTPA.

Time-activity relationships to VOC personal exposure factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Rufus D.; Schweizer, Christian; Llacqua, Vito; Lai, Hak Kan; Jantunen, Matti; Bayer-Oglesby, Lucy; Künzli, Nino

Social and demographic factors have been found to play a significant role in differences between time-activity patterns of population subgroups. Since time-activity patterns largely influence personal exposure to compounds as individuals move across microenvironments, exposure subgroups within the population may be defined by factors that influence daily activity patterns. Socio-demographic and environmental factors that define time-activity subgroups also define quantifiable differences in VOC personal exposures to different sources and individual compounds in the Expolis study. Significant differences in exposures to traffic-related compounds ethylbenzene, m- and p-xylene and o-xylene were observed in relation to gender, number of children and living alone. Categorization of exposures further indicated time exposed to traffic at work and time in a car as important determinants. Increased exposures to decane, nonane and undecane were observed for males, housewives and self-employed. Categorization of exposures indicated exposure subgroups related to workshop use and living downtown. Higher exposures to 3-carene and α-pinene commonly found in household cleaning products and fragrances were associated with more children, while exposures to traffic compounds ethylbenzene, m- and p-xylene and o-xylene were reduced with more children. Considerable unexplained variation remained in categorization of exposures associated with home product use and fragrances, due to individual behavior and product choice. More targeted data collection methods in VOC exposure studies for these sources should be used. Living alone was associated with decreased exposures to 2-methyl-1-propanol and 1-butanol, and traffic-related compounds. Identification of these subgroups may help to reduce the large amount of unexplained variation in VOC exposure studies. Further they may help in assessing impacts of urban planning that result in changes in behavior of individuals, resulting in shifts in the patterns of exposure experienced by the population.

Population decline induced by gonorrhoea and tuberculosis transmission: Micronesia during the Japanese occupation, 1919–45

PubMed Central

Singer, Burton H.

2011-01-01

The islands of Yap in Micronesia survived a period of severe depopulation during the Japanese occupation from 1919 to 1945. Using data from historical documents, supplemented by ethnographic evidence, we calibrate a simulation model that accounts for this phenomenon. Our model tracks the reproduction histories of a synthetic cohort of women in Yap, including effects of infertility due to gonorrhoea as well as tuberculosis mortality, and predicts the net reproduction rate (NRR). In this particular case and throughout history, human migrations and associated social and cultural interactions have frequently been accompanied by dramatic changes in patterns of disease transmission and substantial demographic consequences. Despite the broad emphasis on mortality as a measure of demographic consequences in the historical and contemporary literature, there are important instances where life expectancy at birth, fertility rates, and total population size are important demographic consequences. We find that gonorrhoea may have significantly contributed to depopulation during the Japanese occupation of Micronesia, due to repeated infections and high risk of sterility. Results of our model suggest that gonorrhoea alone could have reduced the net reproduction rate by 82%, whereas deaths from tuberculosis may have contributed to a 17% decline. PMID:21666856

Changes in rates of capture and demographics of Myotis septentrionalis (Northern Long-eared Bat) in Western Virginia before and after onset of white-nose syndrome

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Richard J.; Powers, Karen E.; Orndorff, Wil; Ford, W. Mark; Hobson, Christopher S.

2016-01-01

Documenting the impacts of white-nose syndrome (WNS) on demographic patterns, such as annual survivorship and recruitment, is important to understanding the extirpation or possible stabilization and recovery of species over time. To document demographic impacts of WNS on Myotis septentrionalis (Northern Long-eared Bat), we mistnetted at sites in western Virginia where Northern Long-eared Bats were captured in summer before (1990–2009) and after (2011–2013) the onset of WNS. Our mean capture rates per hour, adjusted for area of net and sampling duration, declined significantly from 0.102 bats/ m2/h before WNS to 0.005 bats/m2/h (-95.1%) by 2013. We noted a time lag in the rate of decline between published data based on bats captured during the swarming season and our summer mist-netting captures from the same geographic area. Although proportions of pregnant or lactating females did not vary statistically in samples obtained before and after the onset of WNS, the proportion of juvenile bats declined significantly (-76.7%), indicating that the viability of Northern Long-eared Bats in western Virginia is tenuous.

A Temporal Perspective on the Interplay of Demography and Selection on Deleterious Variation in Humans

PubMed Central

Koch, Evan; Novembre, John

2017-01-01

When mutations have small effects on fitness, population size plays an important role in determining the amount and nature of deleterious genetic variation. The extent to which recent population size changes have impacted deleterious variation in humans has been a question of considerable interest and debate. An emerging consensus is that the Out-of-Africa bottleneck and subsequent growth events have been too short to cause meaningful differences in genetic load between populations; though changes in the number and average frequencies of deleterious variants have taken place. To provide more support for this view and to offer additional insight into the divergent evolution of deleterious variation across populations, we numerically solve time-inhomogeneous diffusion equations and study the temporal dynamics of the frequency spectra in models of population size change for modern humans. We observe how the response to demographic change differs by the strength of selection, and we then assess whether similar patterns are observed in exome sequence data from 33,370 and 5203 individuals of non-Finnish European and West African ancestry, respectively. Our theoretical results highlight how even simple summaries of the frequency spectrum can have complex responses to demographic change. These results support the finding that some apparent discrepancies between previous results have been driven by the behaviors of the precise summaries of deleterious variation. Further, our empirical results make clear the difficulty of inferring slight differences in frequency spectra using recent next-generation sequence data. PMID:28159863

Range-wide parallel climate-associated genomic clines in Atlantic salmon

PubMed Central

Stanley, Ryan R. E.; Wringe, Brendan F.; Guijarro-Sabaniel, Javier; Bourret, Vincent; Bernatchez, Louis; Bentzen, Paul; Beiko, Robert G.; Gilbey, John; Clément, Marie; Bradbury, Ian R.

2017-01-01

Clinal variation across replicated environmental gradients can reveal evidence of local adaptation, providing insight into the demographic and evolutionary processes that shape intraspecific diversity. Using 1773 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms we evaluated latitudinal variation in allele frequency for 134 populations of North American and European Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We detected 84 (4.74%) and 195 (11%) loci showing clinal patterns in North America and Europe, respectively, with 12 clinal loci in common between continents. Clinal single nucleotide polymorphisms were evenly distributed across the salmon genome and logistic regression revealed significant associations with latitude and seasonal temperatures, particularly average spring temperature in both continents. Loci displaying parallel clines were associated with several metabolic and immune functions, suggesting a potential basis for climate-associated adaptive differentiation. These climate-based clines collectively suggest evidence of large-scale environmental associated differences on either side of the North Atlantic. Our results support patterns of parallel evolution on both sides of the North Atlantic, with evidence of both similar and divergent underlying genetic architecture. The identification of climate-associated genomic clines illuminates the role of selection and demographic processes on intraspecific diversity in this species and provides a context in which to evaluate the impacts of climate change. PMID:29291123

Increasing Inequality in Physical Activity Among Minnesota Secondary Schools, 2001-2010.

PubMed

Nelson, Toben F; MacLehose, Richard F; Davey, Cynthia; Rode, Peter; Nanney, Marilyn S

2018-05-01

Two Healthy People 2020 goals are to increase physical activity (PA) and to reduce disparities in PA. We explored whether PA at the school level changed over time in Minnesota schools and whether differences existed by demographic and socioeconomic factors. We examine self-reported PA (n = 276,089 students; N = 276 schools) for 2001-2010 from the Minnesota Student Survey linked to school demographic data from the National Center for Education Statistics and the Rural-Urban Commuting Area Codes. We conducted analyses at the school level using multivariable linear regression with cluster-robust recommendation errors. Overall, students who met PA recommendations increased from 59.8% in 2001 to 66.3% in 2010 (P < .001). Large gains in PA occurred at schools with fewer racial/ethnic minority students (0%-60.1% in 2001 to 67.5% in 2010, P < .001), whereas gains in PA were comparatively small at schools with a high proportion of racial/ethnic minority students in 2001 (30%-59.2% in 2001 to 62.7% in 2010). We found increasing inequalities in school-level PA by racial/ethnic characteristics of their schools and communities among secondary school students. Future research should monitor patterns of PA over time and explore mechanisms for patterns of inequality.

Clustering of health-related behaviors, health outcomes and demographics in Dutch adolescents: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Busch, Vincent; Van Stel, Henk F; Schrijvers, Augustinus J P; de Leeuw, Johannes R J

2013-12-04

Recent studies show several health-related behaviors to cluster in adolescents. This has important implications for public health. Interrelated behaviors have been shown to be most effectively targeted by multimodal interventions addressing wider-ranging improvements in lifestyle instead of via separate interventions targeting individual behaviors. However, few previous studies have taken into account a broad, multi-disciplinary range of health-related behaviors and connected these behavioral patterns to health-related outcomes. This paper presents an analysis of the clustering of a broad range of health-related behaviors with relevant demographic factors and several health-related outcomes in adolescents. Self-report questionnaire data were collected from a sample of 2,690 Dutch high school adolescents. Behavioral patterns were deducted via Principal Components Analysis. Subsequently a Two-Step Cluster Analysis was used to identify groups of adolescents with similar behavioral patterns and health-related outcomes. Four distinct behavioral patterns describe the analyzed individual behaviors: 1- risk-prone behavior, 2- bully behavior, 3- problematic screen time use, and 4- sedentary behavior. Subsequent cluster analysis identified four clusters of adolescents. Multi-problem behavior was associated with problematic physical and psychosocial health outcomes, as opposed to those exerting relatively few unhealthy behaviors. These associations were relatively independent of demographics such as ethnicity, gender and socio-economic status. The results show that health-related behaviors tend to cluster, indicating that specific behavioral patterns underlie individual health behaviors. In addition, specific patterns of health-related behaviors were associated with specific health outcomes and demographic factors. In general, unhealthy behavior on account of multiple health-related behaviors was associated with both poor psychosocial and physical health. These findings have significant meaning for future public health programs, which should be more tailored with use of such knowledge on behavioral clustering via e.g. Transfer Learning.

Clustering of health-related behaviors, health outcomes and demographics in Dutch adolescents: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent studies show several health-related behaviors to cluster in adolescents. This has important implications for public health. Interrelated behaviors have been shown to be most effectively targeted by multimodal interventions addressing wider-ranging improvements in lifestyle instead of via separate interventions targeting individual behaviors. However, few previous studies have taken into account a broad, multi-disciplinary range of health-related behaviors and connected these behavioral patterns to health-related outcomes. This paper presents an analysis of the clustering of a broad range of health-related behaviors with relevant demographic factors and several health-related outcomes in adolescents. Methods Self-report questionnaire data were collected from a sample of 2,690 Dutch high school adolescents. Behavioral patterns were deducted via Principal Components Analysis. Subsequently a Two-Step Cluster Analysis was used to identify groups of adolescents with similar behavioral patterns and health-related outcomes. Results Four distinct behavioral patterns describe the analyzed individual behaviors: 1- risk-prone behavior, 2- bully behavior, 3- problematic screen time use, and 4- sedentary behavior. Subsequent cluster analysis identified four clusters of adolescents. Multi-problem behavior was associated with problematic physical and psychosocial health outcomes, as opposed to those exerting relatively few unhealthy behaviors. These associations were relatively independent of demographics such as ethnicity, gender and socio-economic status. Conclusions The results show that health-related behaviors tend to cluster, indicating that specific behavioral patterns underlie individual health behaviors. In addition, specific patterns of health-related behaviors were associated with specific health outcomes and demographic factors. In general, unhealthy behavior on account of multiple health-related behaviors was associated with both poor psychosocial and physical health. These findings have significant meaning for future public health programs, which should be more tailored with use of such knowledge on behavioral clustering via e.g. Transfer Learning. PMID:24305509

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.

PubMed

Prem, Kiesha; Cook, Alex R; Jit, Mark

2017-09-01

Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which contact data such as POLYMOD are not yet available.

Spatiotemporal changes of land use patterns in high mountain areas of Northeast Turkey: a case study in Maçka.

PubMed

Sen, Gokhan; Bayramoglu, Mahmut M; Toksoy, Devlet

2015-08-01

High mountain forests (HMFs) have an important significance in forest ecosystems, but the benefits from such ecosystems have been compromised in recent years. In Turkey, HMFs constitute significant portions of Turkish forests because they cover 4% of Turkey; 15% of all Turkish forest areas are HMFs. The Eastern Black Sea region has a particular importance for HMFs due to its biological diversity and the rich presence of endemic species. This study analyzes the changes in spatial and temporal patterns of forest cover in HMF from 1973 to 2008 in the town of Maçka, which is located at the center of the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey. The spatial and temporal change patterns of land use are quantified by interpreting spatial data. Remote sensing (RS), geographical information system (GIS), and a spatial pattern analysis program for categorical maps (FRAGSTATS) have been used for data collection, analysis, and presentation. The results showed that the HMF areas had biphasic growth from 1973 to 2008. Despite a net increase of 200.6 ha in forested areas between 1984 and 2008, there was an overall decrease from 1973 to 2008. The annual percentage of forestation for the forest areas within the study period was 0.04% in Maçka. The amount of aggregated forest area fragments rose from 388 in 1973 to 711 in 2008. The increase in the HMF of Maçka can be explained to some extent by the change in the demographic structure of Maçka and its plateaus, which contributed to changes in the daily life of the population of Maçka and its villages, such as changes in annual incomes, their lifestyles, decrease in transhumance and stockbreeding, decrease in the time of dwelling on the plateaus, and changes in the traditional architectural style.

Study of dyadic communication in couples managing prostate cancer: a longitudinal perspective

PubMed Central

Song, L; Northouse, LL; Zhang, L; Braun, TM; Cimprich, B; Ronis, DL; Mood, DW

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE Cancer patients and partners often report inadequate communication about illness-related issues, although it is essential for mutual support and informal caregiving. This study examined the patterns of change in dyadic communication between patients with prostate cancer and their partners, and also determined if certain factors affected their communication over time. METHOD Using multilevel modeling, this study analyzed longitudinal data obtained from a randomized clinical trial with prostate cancer patients and their partners, to examine their communication over time. Patients and partners (N=134 pairs) from the usual-care control group independently completed baseline demographic assessment and measures of social support, uncertainty, symptom distress, and dyadic communication at baseline, and 4-, 8-, and 12-month follow-ups. RESULTS The results indicated that (1) patients and partners reported similar levels of open communication at the time of diagnosis. Communication reported by patients and partners decreased over time in a similar trend, regardless of phase of illness; (2) phase of illness affected couples’ open communication at diagnosis but not patterns of change over time; and (3) couples’ perceived communication increased as they reported more social support, less uncertainty, and fewer hormonal symptoms in patients. Couples’ demographic factors and general symptoms, and patients’ prostate cancer-specific symptoms did not affect their levels of open communication. CONCLUSIONS Perceived open communication between prostate cancer patients and partners over time is affected by certain baseline and time-varying psychosocial and cancer-related factors. The results provide empirical evidence that may guide the development of strategies to facilitate couples’ interaction and mutual support during survivorship. PMID:20967920

Study of dyadic communication in couples managing prostate cancer: a longitudinal perspective.

PubMed

Song, Lixin; Northouse, Laurel L; Zhang, Lingling; Braun, Thomas M; Cimprich, Bernadine; Ronis, David L; Mood, Darlene W

2012-01-01

Cancer patients and partners often report inadequate communication about illness-related issues, although it is essential for mutual support and informal caregiving. This study examined the patterns of change in dyadic communication between patients with prostate cancer and their partners, and also determined if certain factors affected their communication over time. Using multilevel modeling, this study analyzed longitudinal data obtained from a randomized clinical trial with prostate cancer patients and their partners, to examine their communication over time. Patients and partners (N=134 pairs) from the usual-care control group independently completed baseline demographic assessment and measures of social support, uncertainty, symptom distress, and dyadic communication at baseline, and 4-, 8-, and 12-month follow-ups. The results indicated that (1) patients and partners reported similar levels of open communication at the time of diagnosis. Communication reported by patients and partners decreased over time in a similar trend, regardless of phase of illness; (2) phase of illness affected couples' open communication at diagnosis but not patterns of change over time; and (3) couples' perceived communication increased as they reported more social support, less uncertainty, and fewer hormonal symptoms in patients. Couples' demographic factors and general symptoms, and patients' prostate cancer-specific symptoms did not affect their levels of open communication. Perceived open communication between prostate cancer patients and partners over time is affected by certain baseline and time-varying psychosocial and cancer-related factors. The results provide empirical evidence that may guide the development of strategies to facilitate couples' interaction and mutual support during survivorship. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of Demographic History on the Detection of Recombination Hotspots from Linkage Disequilibrium.

PubMed

Dapper, Amy L; Payseur, Bret A

2018-02-01

In some species, meiotic recombination is concentrated in small genomic regions. These "recombination hotspots" leave signatures in fine-scale patterns of linkage disequilibrium, raising the prospect that the genomic landscape of hotspots can be characterized from sequence variation. This approach has led to the inference that hotspots evolve rapidly in some species, but are conserved in others. Historic demographic events, such as population bottlenecks, are known to affect patterns of linkage disequilibrium across the genome, violating population genetic assumptions of this approach. Although such events are prevalent, demographic history is generally ignored when making inferences about the evolution of recombination hotspots. To determine the effect of demography on the detection of recombination hotspots, we use the coalescent to simulate haplotypes with a known recombination landscape. We measure the ability of popular linkage disequilibrium-based programs to detect hotspots across a range of demographic histories, including population bottlenecks, hidden population structure, population expansions, and population contractions. We find that demographic events have the potential to greatly reduce the power and increase the false positive rate of hotspot discovery. Neither the power nor the false positive rate of hotspot detection can be predicted without also knowing the demographic history of the sample. Our results suggest that ignoring demographic history likely overestimates the power to detect hotspots and therefore underestimates the degree of hotspot sharing between species. We suggest strategies for incorporating demographic history into population genetic inferences about recombination hotspots. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

A Demographic Perspective on Family Change

PubMed Central

Bianchi, Suzanne M.

2014-01-01

Demographic analysis seeks to understand how individual microlevel decisions about child-bearing, marriage and partnering, geographic mobility, and behaviors that influence health and longevity aggregate to macrolevel population trends and differentials in fertility, mortality and migration. In this review, I first discuss theoretical perspectives—classic demographic transition theory, the perspective of the “second demographic transition,” the spread of developmental idealism—that inform demographers’ understanding of macrolevel population change. Then, I turn to a discussion of the role that demographically informed data collection has played in illuminating family change since the mid-20th century in the United States. Finally, I discuss ways in which demographic theory and data collection might inform future areas of family research, particularly in the area of intergenerational family relationships and new and emerging family forms. PMID:26078785

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Analysis of Binary Multivariate Longitudinal Data via 2-Dimensional Orbits: An Application to the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa

PubMed Central

Visaya, Maria Vivien; Sherwell, David; Sartorius, Benn; Cromieres, Fabien

2015-01-01

We analyse demographic longitudinal survey data of South African (SA) and Mozambican (MOZ) rural households from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa. In particular, we determine whether absolute poverty status (APS) is associated with selected household variables pertaining to socio-economic determination, namely household head age, household size, cumulative death, adults to minor ratio, and influx. For comparative purposes, households are classified according to household head nationality (SA or MOZ) and APS (rich or poor). The longitudinal data of each of the four subpopulations (SA rich, SA poor, MOZ rich, and MOZ poor) is a five-dimensional space defined by binary variables (questions), subjects, and time. We use the orbit method to represent binary multivariate longitudinal data (BMLD) of each household as a two-dimensional orbit and to visualise dynamics and behaviour of the population. At each time step, a point (x, y) from the orbit of a household corresponds to the observation of the household, where x is a binary sequence of responses and y is an ordering of variables. The ordering of variables is dynamically rearranged such that clusters and holes associated to least and frequently changing variables in the state space respectively, are exposed. Analysis of orbits reveals information of change at both individual- and population-level, change patterns in the data, capacity of states in the state space, and density of state transitions in the orbits. Analysis of household orbits of the four subpopulations show association between (i) households headed by older adults and rich households, (ii) large household size and poor households, and (iii) households with more minors than adults and poor households. Our results are compared to other methods of BMLD analysis. PMID:25919116

Socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours for climate change mitigation in urban China.

PubMed

Chan, Emily Ying Yang; Wang, Susan Shuxin; Ho, Janice Ying-En; Huang, Zhe; Liu, Sida; Guo, Chunlan

2017-01-01

This study aims to examine the patterns and socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours that support climate change mitigation in a densely populated Asian metropolis-Hong Kong. A population-based, stratified and cross-sectional random digit dialling telephone survey study was conducted between January and February 2016, among the Cantonese-speaking population aged 15 and above in Hong Kong. Socio-demographic data and the self-reported practice of 10 different co-benefit behaviours were solicited. Ethics approval and participant's verbal consent were sought. The study sample consisted of 1,017 respondents (response rate: 63.6%) were comparable to the age, gender and geographical distributions of the Hong Kong population found in the latest 2011 Hong Kong Population Census. Among the co-benefit behaviours, using less packaging and disposable shopping bags were practiced in the highest frequency (70.1%). However, four behaviours were found to have never been practiced by more than half of the respondents, including bringing personal eating utensils when dining in restaurants or small eateries, showering less than five minutes, having one vegetarian meal a week, and buying more organic food. Results of multivariable logistic regression showed that frequency of practicing co-benefit behaviours were consistently associated with gender and age. Urban residents in Hong Kong do not engage in the practice of co-benefit behaviours in a uniform way. In general, females and older people are more likely to adopt co-benefit behaviours in their daily lives. Further research to assess the knowledge and attitudes of the population towards these co-benefit behaviours will provide support to relevant climate change mitigation policies and education programmes.

Socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours for climate change mitigation in urban China

PubMed Central

Wang, Susan Shuxin; Ho, Janice Ying-en; Huang, Zhe; Liu, Sida; Guo, Chunlan

2017-01-01

Objective This study aims to examine the patterns and socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours that support climate change mitigation in a densely populated Asian metropolis—Hong Kong. Methods A population-based, stratified and cross-sectional random digit dialling telephone survey study was conducted between January and February 2016, among the Cantonese-speaking population aged 15 and above in Hong Kong. Socio-demographic data and the self-reported practice of 10 different co-benefit behaviours were solicited. Ethics approval and participant’s verbal consent were sought. Findings The study sample consisted of 1,017 respondents (response rate: 63.6%) were comparable to the age, gender and geographical distributions of the Hong Kong population found in the latest 2011 Hong Kong Population Census. Among the co-benefit behaviours, using less packaging and disposable shopping bags were practiced in the highest frequency (70.1%). However, four behaviours were found to have never been practiced by more than half of the respondents, including bringing personal eating utensils when dining in restaurants or small eateries, showering less than five minutes, having one vegetarian meal a week, and buying more organic food. Results of multivariable logistic regression showed that frequency of practicing co-benefit behaviours were consistently associated with gender and age. Conclusion Urban residents in Hong Kong do not engage in the practice of co-benefit behaviours in a uniform way. In general, females and older people are more likely to adopt co-benefit behaviours in their daily lives. Further research to assess the knowledge and attitudes of the population towards these co-benefit behaviours will provide support to relevant climate change mitigation policies and education programmes. PMID:29176879

A Community-Wide Perspective into Changing Trends in the Utilization of Diagnostic and Interventional Procedures in Patients Hospitalized with Acute Myocardial Infarction

PubMed Central

Hahn, Jessica; Lessard, Darleen; Yarzebski, Jorge; Goldberg, Jordan; Pruell, Sean; Spencer, Frederick A.; Gore, Joel M.; Goldberg, Robert J.

2007-01-01

Background Limited data are available describing contemporary trends in the utilization of diagnostic and interventional procedures in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The objectives of our population-based investigation were to examine long-term trends (1986–2003) in the utilization of cardiac catheterization, percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI), and coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) in a community sample of patients hospitalized with AMI. We examined the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients who received these diagnostic and interventional procedures and determined whether the profile of patients undergoing these procedures had changed over time. Methods The study sample consisted of 9,422 greater Worcester (MA) residents hospitalized with confirmed AMI at all metropolitan Worcester medical centers in 10 annual periods between 1986 and 2003. Information on patient demographics, clinical course, and treatment practices was obtained through the review of hospital medical records. Results Marked increases were observed in the utilization of cardiac catheterization (18.4% to 55.8%) and PCI (2.0% to 42.1%) between 1986 and 2003, respectively. Utilization of CABG showed modest increases in the early 1990's while its use was relatively stable thereafter. Several demographic and clinical characteristics were associated with the receipt of these diagnostic and interventional procedures. Conclusions The results of this study of patients hospitalized with AMI in a large Northeast community suggest evolving trends in the use of cardiac catheterization, PCI, and CABG. Despite these changing patterns, our findings suggest that there remains room for improvement in the therapeutic management of patients hospitalized with AMI, including certain high risk groups. PMID:17383299

Multilocus dataset reveals demographic histories of two peat mosses in Europe

PubMed Central

Szövényi, Péter; Hock, Zsófia; Schneller, Jakob J; Tóth, Zoltán

2007-01-01

Background Revealing the past and present demographic history of populations is of high importance to evaluate the conservation status of species. Demographic data can be obtained by direct monitoring or by analysing data of historical and recent collections. Although these methods provide the most detailed information they are very time consuming. Another alternative way is to make use of the information accumulated in the species' DNA over its history. Recent development of the coalescent theory makes it possible to reconstruct the demographic history of species using nucleotide polymorphism data. To separate the effect of natural selection and demography, multilocus analysis is needed because these two forces can produce similar patterns of polymorphisms. In this study we investigated the amount and pattern of sequence variability of a Europe wide sample set of two peat moss species (Sphagnum fimbriatum and S. squarrosum) with similar distributions and mating systems but presumably contrasting historical demographies using 3 regions of the nuclear genome (appr. 3000 bps). We aimed to draw inferences concerning demographic, and phylogeographic histories of the species. Results All three nuclear regions supported the presence of an Atlantic and Non-Atlantic clade of S. fimbriatum suggesting glacial survival of the species along the Atlantic coast of Europe. Contrarily, S. squarrosum haplotypes showed three clades but no geographic structure at all. Maximum likelihood, mismatch and Bayesian analyses supported a severe historical bottleneck and a relatively recent demographic expansion of the Non-Atlantic clade of S. fimbriatum, whereas size of S. squarrosum populations has probably decreased in the past. Species wide molecular diversity of the two species was nearly the same with an excess of replacement mutations in S. fimbriatum. Similar levels of molecular diversity, contrasting phylogeographic patterns and excess of replacement mutations in S. fimbriatum compared to S. squarrosum mirror unexpected differences in the demography and population history of the species. Conclusion This study represents the first detailed European wide phylodemographic investigation on bryophytes and shows how pattern of nucleotide polymorphism can reveal unexpected differences in the population history of haploid plants with seemingly similar characteristics. PMID:17714592

Shaping Graduate Education's Future: Implications of Demographic Shifts for the 21st Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brazziel, William F.

Due to demographic changes and trends now in progress graduate education delivery systems for students, teachers, and support providers will all be different in the future. Demographics will be the engine of change and the change itself will come rapidly as countries take steps to maintain and expand competitive skills in their work forces. There…

Workplace Determinants of Social Capital: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Evidence from a Finnish Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Oksanen, Tuula; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kouvonen, Anne; Takao, Soshi; Suzuki, Etsuji; Virtanen, Marianna; Pentti, Jaana; Kivimäki, Mika; Vahtera, Jussi

2013-01-01

Objective To examine which contextual features of the workplace are associated with social capital. Methods This is a cohort study of 43,167 employees in 3090 Finnish public sector workplaces who responded to a survey of individual workplace social capital in 2000–02 (response rate 68%). We used ecometrics approach to estimate social capital of work units. Features of the workplace were work unit's demographic and employment patterns and size, obtained from employers' administrative records. We used multilevel-multinomial logistic regression models to examine cross-sectionally whether these features were associated with social capital between individuals and work units. Fixed effects models were used for longitudinal analyses in a subsample of 12,108 individuals to examine the effects of changes in workplace characteristics on changes in social capital between 2000 and 2004. Results After adjustment for individual characteristics, an increase in work unit size reduced the odds of high levels of individual workplace social capital (odds ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.91–0.98 per 30-person-year increase). A 20% increase in the proportion of manual and male employees reduced the odds of high levels of social capital by 8% and 23%, respectively. A 30% increase in temporary employees and a 20% increase in employee turnover were associated with 11% (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.17) and 24% (95% confidence interval 1.18–1.30) higher odds of having high levels of social capital respectively). Results from fixed effects models within individuals, adjusted for time-varying covariates, and from social capital of the work units yielded consistent results. Conclusions These findings suggest that workplace social capital is contextually patterned. Workplace demographic and employment patterns as well as the size of the work unit are important in understanding variations in workplace social capital between individuals and workplaces. PMID:23776555

Genetic evidence supports larval retention in the Western Caribbean for an invertebrate with high dispersal capability ( Ophiothrix suensonii: Echinodermata, Ophiuroidea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, V. P.; DeBiasse, M. B.; Shivji, M. S.

2015-03-01

The brittle star Ophiothrix suensonii is a common coral reef sponge commensal with high dispersal potential. Here, we utilize COI sequence data from 264 O. suensonii individuals collected from 10 locations throughout Florida and the Caribbean to investigate dispersal dynamics and demographic history. Locations separated by up to 1,700 km lacked genetic differentiation, confirming the ability for long-range dispersal. However, significant differentiation was detected among other regions. Samples from Utila, Honduras showed the greatest differentiation, suggesting that the circulation of the Mesoamerican gyre could be a significant factor restricting gene flow in this region. Demographic analyses provided strong evidence for a population expansion, possibly out of Florida, through the Caribbean, and into Honduras, which commenced in the early Pleistocene. However, the presence of a clade of rare haplotypes, which split much earlier (mid-Pliocene), indicates that O. suensonii persisted long before its recent expansion, suggesting a cyclic history of population contraction and expansion. Finally, patterns of gene flow are not concordant with contemporary surface currents; rather, they reflect historical movements possibly linked with changes in circulation during periods of Pleistocene climate change.

The multiplicity of malaria transmission: a review of entomological inoculation rate measurements and methods across sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Kelly-Hope, Louise A; McKenzie, F Ellis

2009-01-01

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a serious tropical disease that causes more than one million deaths each year, most of them in Africa. It is transmitted by a range of Anopheles mosquitoes and the risk of disease varies greatly across the continent. The "entomological inoculation rate" is the commonly-used measure of the intensity of malaria transmission, yet the methods used are currently not standardized, nor do they take the ecological, demographic, and socioeconomic differences across populations into account. To better understand the multiplicity of malaria transmission, this study examines the distribution of transmission intensity across sub-Saharan Africa, reviews the range of methods used, and explores ecological parameters in selected locations. It builds on an extensive geo-referenced database and uses geographical information systems to highlight transmission patterns, knowledge gaps, trends and changes in methodologies over time, and key differences between land use, population density, climate, and the main mosquito species. The aim is to improve the methods of measuring malaria transmission, to help develop the way forward so that we can better assess the impact of the large-scale intervention programmes, and rapid demographic and environmental change taking place across Africa. PMID:19166589

Quantifying the Shape of Aging

PubMed Central

Wrycza, Tomasz F.; Missov, Trifon I.; Baudisch, Annette

2015-01-01

In Biodemography, aging is typically measured and compared based on aging rates. We argue that this approach may be misleading, because it confounds the time aspect with the mere change aspect of aging. To disentangle these aspects, here we utilize a time-standardized framework and, instead of aging rates, suggest the shape of aging as a novel and valuable alternative concept for comparative aging research. The concept of shape captures the direction and degree of change in the force of mortality over age, which—on a demographic level—reflects aging. We 1) provide a list of shape properties that are desirable from a theoretical perspective, 2) suggest several demographically meaningful and non-parametric candidate measures to quantify shape, and 3) evaluate performance of these measures based on the list of properties as well as based on an illustrative analysis of a simple dataset. The shape measures suggested here aim to provide a general means to classify aging patterns independent of any particular mortality model and independent of any species-specific time-scale. Thereby they support systematic comparative aging research across different species or between populations of the same species under different conditions and constitute an extension of the toolbox available to comparative research in Biodemography. PMID:25803427

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

PubMed

Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

2011-04-01

The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Economic and Demographic Factors Impacting Placement of Students with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kurth, Jennifer A.; Mastergeorge, Ann M.; Paschall, Katherine

2016-01-01

Educational placement of students with autism is often associated with child factors, such as IQ and communication skills. However, variability in placement patterns across states suggests that other factors are at play. This study used hierarchical cluster analysis techniques to identify demographic, economic, and educational covariates…

Life form influences survivorship patterns for 109 herbaceous perennials from six semi-arid ecosystems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We compiled six long-term datasets from western North America to test for ecosystem-dependent demographic responses for forbs and grasses. Based on these data, we characterized 123 survivorship curves for 109 species. Three demographic parameters were extracted from these survivorship curves: surviv...

The Demographics of Corporal Punishment in Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Stephanie

2012-01-01

This dissertation examined the student discipline policies of 1,025 Texas school districts, as well as data from the Texas Education Agency's Academic Excellence Indicator System in order to identify demographic patterns regarding corporal punishment policies in Texas schools. The study also studied the relationship between a district's corporal…

"An empire lost but a province gained": a cohort analysis of British international retirement in the Algarve.

PubMed

Williams, A M; Patterson, G

1998-06-01

"The growth of international retirement in the Algarve has coincided with a number of changes in the international framework for population mobility as well as in the nature of the Algarve [Portugal] as a destination area. Tourism development, which is intimately linked to subsequent retirement migration, is particularly important in this. This paper considers the nature of the link between cycles of migration and of development in recipient areas, in the context of the remarkable and relatively late development of the Algarve as an area of tourism and retirement.... Cohort analysis...provides the basis for an examination of changes over time in the socio-demographic profiles of the migrants, their motivations, their residential patterns and their integration." excerpt

Fertility decline and the changing dynamics of wealth, status and inequality

PubMed Central

Colleran, Heidi; Jasienska, Grazyna; Nenko, Ilona; Galbarczyk, Andrzej; Mace, Ruth

2015-01-01

In the course of demographic transitions (DTs), two large-scale trends become apparent: (i) the broadly positive association between wealth, status and fertility tends to reverse, and (ii) wealth inequalities increase and then temporarily decrease. We argue that these two broad patterns are linked, through a diversification of reproductive strategies that subsequently converge as populations consume more, become less self-sufficient and increasingly depend on education as a route to socio-economic status. We examine these links using data from 22 mid-transition communities in rural Poland. We identify changing relationships between fertility and multiple measures of wealth, status and inequality. Wealth and status generally have opposing effects on fertility, but these associations vary by community. Where farming remains a viable livelihood, reproductive strategies typical of both pre- and post-DT populations coexist. Fertility is lower and less variable in communities with lower wealth inequality, and macro-level patterns in inequality are generally reproduced at the community level. Our results provide a detailed insight into the changing dynamics of wealth, status and inequality that accompany DTs at the community level where peoples' social and economic interactions typically take place. We find no evidence to suggest that women with the most educational capital gain wealth advantages from reducing fertility, nor that higher educational capital delays the onset of childbearing in this population. Rather, these patterns reflect changing reproductive preferences during a period of profound economic and social change, with implications for our understanding of reproductive and socio-economic inequalities in transitioning populations. PMID:25833859

Living in the tide of change: explaining Japanese subjective health from the socio-demographic change

PubMed Central

Hitokoto, Hidefumi; Tanaka-Matsumi, Junko

2014-01-01

Today, countries around the world are caught in the tide of change toward Gesellshaft, or individualistic socio-demographic condition. Recent investigations in Japan have suggested negative impacts of change on emotional and motivational aspects of the Japanese self (Norasakkunkit et al., 2012; Ogihara and Uchida, 2014). Building on previous findings, in Study 1, we measured socio-demographic change toward individualistic societal condition during 1990–2010—two decades marked by great economic recession—at the levels of prefecture and city using archival data. In Study 2, we tested whether Japanese adults' general health, satisfaction with life, self-esteem, and perceived social support were negatively predicted by the change using social survey. Results of hierarchical linear modeling showed small but unique negative effects of the change on several health measures, suggesting that this change had an impact on health, above and beyond individual personality traits, and demographics. Additionally, interdependent happiness, the type of cultural happiness grounded in interdependence of the self (Hitokoto and Uchida, 2014), showed an independent positive relationship with all aspects of health examined. Implications for health studies in changing socio-demographic condition are discussed in the context of Japanese society after economic crisis. PMID:25400604

Changing Patterns in Rates and Means of Suicide in California, 2005 to 2013

PubMed Central

Galin, Jessica; Ahern, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Objectives. To describe recent trends in suicide throughout California and to compare rates and methods of suicide (“means”) across demographic groups. Methods. Data from statewide mortality records were used to estimate age-adjusted rates of suicide from 2005 to 2013, overall and by means, age, gender, race/ethnicity, urbanicity, and county. Results. The suicide rate increased 12.6% between 2005 and 2013, from 11.2 to 12.6 per 100 000 population, but this overall trend masks substantial heterogeneity across subgroups. In particular, rapid increases were observed for individuals of multiple races/ethnicities. Means of suicide changed, trending away from firearms toward suffocation and drug poisoning. Conclusions. High-risk groups and means of suicide are changing rapidly in California, so appropriate public health programming should prioritize population-based strategies. PMID:28177819

Geographic migration of black and white families over four generations.

PubMed

Sharkey, Patrick

2015-02-01

This article analyzes patterns of geographic migration of black and white American families over four consecutive generations. The analysis is based on a unique set of questions in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) asking respondents about the counties and states in which their parents and grandparents were raised. Using this information along with the extensive geographic information available in the PSID survey, the article tracks the geographic locations of four generations of family members and considers the ways in which families and places are linked together over the course of a family's history. The patterns documented in the article are consistent with much of the demographic literature on the Great Migration of black Americans out of the South, but they reveal new insights into patterns of black migration after the Great Migration. In the most recent generation, black Americans have remained in place to a degree that is unique relative to the previous generation and relative to whites of the same generation. This new geographic immobility is the most pronounced change in black Americans' migration patterns after the Great Migration, and it is a pattern that has implications for the demography of black migration as well as the literature on racial inequality.

Mitochondrial lineage sorting in action – historical biogeography of the Hyles euphorbiae complex (Sphingidae, Lepidoptera) in Italy

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Mitochondrial genes are among the most commonly used markers in studies of species’ phylogeography and to draw conclusions about taxonomy. The Hyles euphorbiae complex (HEC) comprises six distinct mitochondrial lineages in the Mediterranean region, of which one exhibits a cryptic disjunct distribution. The predominant mitochondrial lineage in most of Europe, euphorbiae, is also present on Malta; however, it is nowadays strangely absent from Southern Italy and Sicily, where it is replaced by 'italica'. A separate biological entity in Italy is further corroborated by larval colour patterns with a congruent, confined suture zone along the Northern Apennines. By means of historic DNA extracted from museum specimens, we aimed to investigate the evolution of the mitochondrial demographic structure of the HEC in Italy and Malta throughout the Twentieth Century. Results At the beginning of the Twentieth Century, the European mainland lineages were also present at a moderate frequency in Southern Italy and Sicily. The proportion of 'italica' then steadily increased in this area from below 60 percent to near fixation in about 120 years. Thus, geographical sorting of mitochondrial lineages in the HEC was not as complete then as the current demography suggests. The pattern of an integral 'italica' core region and a disjunct euphorbiae distribution evolved very recently. To explain these strong demographic changes, we propose genetic drift due to anthropogenic habitat loss and fragmentation in combination with an impact from recent climate warming that favoured the spreading of the potentially better adapted 'italica' populations. Conclusions The pattern of geographically separated mitochondrial lineages is commonly interpreted as representing long term separated entities. However, our results indicate that such a pattern can emerge surprisingly quickly, even in a widespread and rather common taxon. We thus caution against drawing hasty taxonomic conclusions from biogeographical patterns of mitochondrial markers derived from modern sampling alone. PMID:23594258

Investigating the association between HIV/AIDS and recent fertility patterns in Kenya.

PubMed

Magadi, Monica Akinyi; Agwanda, Alfred O

2010-07-01

Findings from previous studies linking the HIV/AIDS epidemic and fertility of populations have remained inconclusive. In sub-Saharan Africa, demographic patterns point to the epidemic resulting in fertility reduction. However, evidence from the 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) has revealed interesting patterns, with regions most adversely affected with HIV/AIDS showing the clearest reversal trend in fertility decline. While there is suggestive evidence that fertility behaviour in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa has changed in relation to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, more rigorous empirical analysis is necessary to better understand this relationship. In this paper, we examine individual and contextual community HIV/AIDS factors associated with fertility patterns in Kenya, paying particular attention to possible mechanisms of the association. Multilevel models are applied to the 2003 KDHS, introducing various proximate fertility determinants in successive stages, to explore possible mechanisms through which HIV/AIDS may be associated with fertility. The results corroborate findings from earlier studies of the fertility inhibiting effect of HIV among infected women. HIV-infected women have 40 percent lower odds of having had a recent birth than their uninfected counterparts of similar background characteristics. Further analysis suggests an association between HIV/AIDS and fertility that exists through proximate fertility determinants relating to sexual exposure, breastfeeding duration, and foetal loss. While HIV/AIDS may have contributed to reduced fertility, mainly through reduced sexual exposure, there is evidence that it has contributed to increased fertility, through reduced breastfeeding and increased desire for more children resulting from increased infant/child mortality (i.e. a replacement phenomenon). In communities at advanced stages of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, it is possible that infant/child mortality has reached appreciably high levels where the impact of replacement and reduced breastfeeding duration is substantial enough to result in a reversal of fertility decline. This provides a plausible explanation for the patterns observed in regions with particularly high HIV prevalence in Kenya. Crown Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How does variance in fertility change over the demographic transition?

PubMed Central

Hruschka, Daniel J.; Burger, Oskar

2016-01-01

Most work on the human fertility transition has focused on declines in mean fertility. However, understanding changes in the variance of reproductive outcomes can be equally important for evolutionary questions about the heritability of fertility, individual determinants of fertility and changing patterns of reproductive skew. Here, we document how variance in completed fertility among women (45–49 years) differs across 200 surveys in 72 low- to middle-income countries where fertility transitions are currently in progress at various stages. Nearly all (91%) of samples exhibit variance consistent with a Poisson process of fertility, which places systematic, and often severe, theoretical upper bounds on the proportion of variance that can be attributed to individual differences. In contrast to the pattern of total variance, these upper bounds increase from high- to mid-fertility samples, then decline again as samples move from mid to low fertility. Notably, the lowest fertility samples often deviate from a Poisson process. This suggests that as populations move to low fertility their reproduction shifts from a rate-based process to a focus on an ideal number of children. We discuss the implications of these findings for predicting completed fertility from individual-level variables. PMID:27022082

[The Hessian care monitor. Transparency on regional labor markets].

PubMed

Lauxen, O; Bieräugel, R

2013-08-01

The Hessian Care Monitor is a Web-based monitoring system of the regional care labor market. It contains information on the current labor market and on future developments. Official statistics are analyzed, primary data are collected, and forecasts are calculated. Since 2008, the demand for nurses in Hesse has been higher than the supply. In 2010, there was a lack of more than 4,400 nurses. Moreover, in 2025, around 5,500 additional nurses will be needed to meet the increasing demand arising from demographic changes. However, there are three different regional patterns: regions with high current shortages but little additional demand in the future; regions with low current shortages but large future needs; and regions with high current shortages and large future demand. Appropriate strategies for handling labor shortages have to be selected according to the different regional patterns.

Intercultural communication in nursing education: when Asian students and American faculty converge.

PubMed

Xu, Yu; Davidhizar, Ruth

2005-05-01

In the context of globalization and changing American demographics, it is becoming increasingly important to understand and communicate effectively with people from diverse cultural and racial/ethnic backgrounds. This article applies the framework of cultural variability and intercultural communication research literature to examine and highlight the different communication behaviors of Asians and non-Asians in the United States. The meanings of various verbal and nonverbal behaviors of Asian students are examined to clarify their communication patterns. Culture-based assumptions are identified, and measures to improve intercultural communication in nursing education are provided.

Rural migration and agrarian reform in Russia: a research note.

PubMed

Wegren, S K

1995-07-01

This study focuses primarily on trends in rural-urban migration in Russia and the former Soviet Union. "New data suggest that a historic shift in migration patterns is underway in Russia, a change that may have profound long-term effects on agrarian reform and the nature of the Russian countryside. We begin with a short review of past rural migration trends and the rural demographic situation, in part using archival data for an oblast in central Russia. We will then present new data on rural migration. Finally, we assess the implications of rural migratory trends for agrarian reform in Russia." excerpt

Prescribing patterns of psychotropic medications and clinical features in patients with major depressive disorder with and without comorbid dysthymia in China.

PubMed

Feng, Yuan; Sha, Sha; Hu, Chen; Wang, Gang; Ungvari, Gabor S; Chiu, Helen F K; Ng, Chee H; Si, Tian-Mei; Chen, Da-Fang; Fang, Yi-Ru; Lu, Zheng; Yang, Hai-Chen; Hu, Jian; Chen, Zhi-Yu; Huang, Yi; Sun, Jing; Wang, Xiao-Ping; Li, Hui-Chun; Zhang, Jin-Bei; Xiang, Yu-Tao

2017-03-01

Little has been reported about the demographic and clinical features of major depressive disorder (MDD) with comorbid dysthymia in Chinese patients. This study examined the frequency of comorbid dysthymia in Chinese MDD patients together with the demographic and clinical correlates and prescribing patterns of psychotropic drugs. Consecutively collected sample of 1178 patients with MDD were examined in 13 major psychiatric hospitals in China. Patients' demographic and clinical characteristics and psychotropic drugs prescriptions were recorded using a standardized protocol and data collection procedure. The diagnosis of dysthymia was established using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview. Medications ascertained included antidepressants, antipsychotics, benzodiazepines, and mood stabilizers. One hundred and three (8.7%) patients fulfilled criteria for dysthymia. In multiple logistic regression analyses, compared to non-dysthymia counterparts, MDD patients with dysthymia had more depressive episodes with atypical features including increased appetite, sleep, and weight gain, more frequent lifetime depressive episodes, and less likelihood of family history of psychiatric disorders. There was no significant difference in the pattern of psychotropic prescription between the 2 groups. There are important differences in the demographic and clinical features of comorbid dysthymia in Chinese MDD patients compared with previous reports. The clinical profile found in this study has implications for treatment decisions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

PubMed

Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

2017-12-01

Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

Contrasting support for alternative models of genomic variation based on microhabitat preference: species-specific effects of climate change in alpine sedges.

PubMed

Massatti, Rob; Knowles, L Lacey

2016-08-01

Deterministic processes may uniquely affect codistributed species' phylogeographic patterns such that discordant genetic variation among taxa is predicted. Yet, explicitly testing expectations of genomic discordance in a statistical framework remains challenging. Here, we construct spatially and temporally dynamic models to investigate the hypothesized effect of microhabitat preferences on the permeability of glaciated regions to gene flow in two closely related montane species. Utilizing environmental niche models from the Last Glacial Maximum and the present to inform demographic models of changes in habitat suitability over time, we evaluate the relative probabilities of two alternative models using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) in which glaciated regions are either (i) permeable or (ii) a barrier to gene flow. Results based on the fit of the empirical data to data sets simulated using a spatially explicit coalescent under alternative models indicate that genomic data are consistent with predictions about the hypothesized role of microhabitat in generating discordant patterns of genetic variation among the taxa. Specifically, a model in which glaciated areas acted as a barrier was much more probable based on patterns of genomic variation in Carex nova, a wet-adapted species. However, in the dry-adapted Carex chalciolepis, the permeable model was more probable, although the difference in the support of the models was small. This work highlights how statistical inferences can be used to distinguish deterministic processes that are expected to result in discordant genomic patterns among species, including species-specific responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Anthropometric geography applied to the analysis of socioeconomic disparities: cohort trends and spatial patterns of height and robustness in 20th-century Spain.

PubMed

Camara, Antonio D; Roman, Joan Garcia

2015-11-01

Anthropometrics have been widely used to study the influence of environmental factors on health and nutritional status. In contrast, anthropometric geography has not often been employed to approximate the dynamics of spatial disparities associated with socioeconomic and demographic changes. Spain exhibited intense disparity and change during the middle decades of the 20 th century, with the result that the life courses of the corresponding cohorts were associated with diverse environmental conditions. This was also true of the Spanish territories. This paper presents insights concerning the relationship between socioeconomic changes and living conditions by combining the analysis of cohort trends and the anthropometric cartography of height and physical build. This analysis is conducted for Spanish male cohorts born 1934-1973 that were recorded in the Spanish military statistics. This information is interpreted in light of region-level data on GDP and infant mortality. Our results show an anthropometric convergence across regions that, nevertheless, did not substantially modify the spatial patterns of robustness, featuring primarily robust northeastern regions and weak Central-Southern regions. These patterns persisted until the 1990s (cohorts born during the 1970s). For the most part, anthropometric disparities were associated with socioeconomic disparities, although the former lessened over time to a greater extent than the latter. Interestingly, the various anthropometric indicators utilized here do not point to the same conclusions. Some discrepancies between height and robustness patterns have been found that moderate the statements from the analysis of cohort height alone regarding the level and evolution of living conditions across Spanish regions.

Potential Changes in Disease Patterns and Pharmaceutical Use in Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Redshaw, Clare H.; Stahl-Timmins, Will M.; Fleming, Lora E.; Davidson, Iain; Depledge, Michael H.

2013-01-01

As climate change alters environmental conditions, the incidence and global patterns of human diseases are changing. These modifications to disease profiles and the effects upon human pharmaceutical usage are discussed. Climate-related environmental changes are associated with a rise in the incidence of chronic diseases already prevalent in the Northern Hemisphere, for example, cardiovascular disease and mental illness, leading to greater use of associated heavily used Western medications. Sufferers of respiratory diseases may exhibit exacerbated symptoms due to altered environmental conditions (e.g., pollen). Respiratory, water-borne, and food-borne toxicants and infections, including those that are vector borne, may become more common in Western countries, central and eastern Asia, and across North America. As new disease threats emerge, substantially higher pharmaceutical use appears inevitable, especially of pharmaceuticals not commonly employed at present (e.g., antiprotozoals). The use of medications for the treatment of general symptoms (e.g., analgesics) will also rise. These developments need to be viewed in the context of other major environmental changes (e.g., industrial chemical pollution, biodiversity loss, reduced water and food security) as well as marked shifts in human demographics, including aging of the population. To identify, prevent, mitigate, and adapt to potential threats, one needs to be aware of the major factors underlying changes in the use of pharmaceuticals and their subsequent release, deliberately or unintentionally, into the environment. This review explores the likely consequences of climate change upon the use of medical pharmaceuticals in the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:23909463

Demographic and Economic Changes and Postsecondary Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charner, Ivan

The interaction of demographic and economic shifts has led to, and will continue to effect, changes in the postsecondary education system and institutions. Demographic shifts include aging of the population, more women in the paid labor force, and increased numbers of minorities. Economic shifts include the growth of the information sector,…

Patterns of Communication in a Rural Population. Research Bulletin 1095.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ross, Peggy J.; Napier, Ted L.

Patterns of communication among residents of a predominantly rural county in Ohio were analyzed in 1975 to examine behavioral and attitudinal patterns regarding mass communication systems, and to test the extent to which variations in attitudes toward mass media were a function of variations in socio-economic and demographic characteristics.…

Divergence history of the Carpathian and smooth newts modelled in space and time.

PubMed

Zieliński, P; Nadachowska-Brzyska, K; Dudek, K; Babik, W

2016-08-01

Information about demographic history is essential for the understanding of the processes of divergence and speciation. Patterns of genetic variation within and between closely related species provide insights into the history of their interactions. Here, we investigated historical demography and genetic exchange between the Carpathian (Lissotriton montandoni, Lm) and smooth (L. vulgaris, Lv) newts. We combine an extensive geographical sampling and multilocus nuclear sequence data with the approximate Bayesian computation framework to test alternative scenarios of divergence and reconstruct the temporal and spatial pattern of gene flow between species. A model of recent (last glacial period) interspecific gene flow was favoured over alternative models. Thus, despite the relatively old divergence (4-6 mya) and presumably long periods of isolation, the species have retained the ability to exchange genes. Nevertheless, the low migration rates (ca. 10(-6) per gene copy per generation) are consistent with strong reproductive isolation between the species. Models allowing demographic changes were favoured, suggesting that the effective population sizes of both species at least doubled as divergence reaching the current ca. 0.2 million in Lm and 1 million in Lv. We found asymmetry in rates of interspecific gene flow between Lm and one evolutionary lineage of Lv. We suggest that intraspecific polymorphism for hybrid incompatibilities segregating within Lv could explain this pattern and propose further tests to distinguish between alternative explanations. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating intraspecific genetic structure into the models investigating the history of divergence. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial patterns of air pollutants and social groups: a distributive environmental justice study in the phoenix metropolitan region of USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Ronald; Wu, Jianguo; Boone, Christopher

2016-11-01

Quantifying spatial distribution patterns of air pollutants is imperative to understand environmental justice issues. Here we present a landscape-based hierarchical approach in which air pollution variables are regressed against population demographics on multiple spatiotemporal scales. Using this approach, we investigated the potential problem of distributive environmental justice in the Phoenix metropolitan region, focusing on ambient ozone and particulate matter. Pollution surfaces (maps) are evaluated against the demographics of class, age, race (African American, Native American), and ethnicity (Hispanic). A hierarchical multiple regression method is used to detect distributive environmental justice relationships. Our results show that significant relationships exist between the dependent and independent variables, signifying possible environmental inequity. Although changing spatiotemporal scales only altered the overall direction of these relationships in a few instances, it did cause the relationship to become nonsignificant in many cases. Several consistent patterns emerged: people aged 17 and under were significant predictors for ambient ozone and particulate matter, but people 65 and older were only predictors for ambient particulate matter. African Americans were strong predictors for ambient particulate matter, while Native Americans were strong predictors for ambient ozone. Hispanics had a strong negative correlation with ambient ozone, but a less consistent positive relationship with ambient particulate matter. Given the legacy conditions endured by minority racial and ethnic groups, and the relative lack of mobility of all the groups, our findings suggest the existence of environmental inequities in the Phoenix metropolitan region. The methodology developed in this study is generalizable with other pollutants to provide a multi-scaled perspective of environmental justice issues.

Environmental margin and island evolution in Middle Eastern populations of the Egyptian fruit bat.

PubMed

Hulva, P; Marešová, T; Dundarova, H; Bilgin, R; Benda, P; Bartonička, T; Horáček, I

2012-12-01

Here, we present a study of the population genetic architecture and microevolution of the Egyptian fruit bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus) at the environmental margins in the Middle East using mitochondrial sequences and nuclear microsatellites. In contrast to the rather homogenous population structure typical of cave-dwelling bats in climax tropical ecosystems, a relatively pronounced isolation by distance and population diversification was observed. The evolution of this pattern could be ascribed to the complicated demographic history at higher latitudes related to the range margin fragmentation and complex geomorphology of the studied area. Lineages from East Africa and Arabia show divergent positions. Within the northwestern unit, the most marked pattern of the microsatellite data set is connected with insularity, as demonstrated by the separate status of populations from Saharan oases and Cyprus. These demes also exhibit a reduction in genetic variability, which is presumably connected with founder effects, drift and other potential factors related to island evolution as site-specific selection. Genetic clustering indicates a semipermeability of the desert barriers in the Sahara and Arabian Peninsula and a corridor role of the Nile Valley. The results emphasize the role of the island environment in restricting the gene flow in megabats, which is also corroborated by biogeographic patterns within the family, and suggests the possibility of nascent island speciation on Cyprus. Demographic analyses suggest that the colonization of the region was connected to the spread of agricultural plants; therefore, the peripatric processes described above might be because of or strengthened by anthropogenic changes in the environment. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. Methods: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. Conclusions: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 PMID:27337737

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Vink, Jan K; Horton, Radley M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A; Francis, Joe D; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

Changing Susceptibility to Non-Optimum Temperatures in Japan, 1972-2012: The Role of Climate, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Factors.

PubMed

Chung, Yeonseung; Yang, Daewon; Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Fook Sheng Ng, Chris; Kim, Yoonhee; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro

2018-05-02

Previous studies have shown that population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures has changed over time, but little is known about the related time-varying factors that underlie the changes. Our objective was to investigate the changing population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in 47 prefectures of Japan over four decades from 1972 to 2012, addressing three aspects: minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and heat- and cold-related mortality risks. In addition, we aimed to examine how these aspects of susceptibility were associated with climate, demographic, and socioeconomic variables. We first used a two-stage time-series design with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the time-varying MMT, heat- and cold-related mortality risks. We then applied linear mixed effects models to investigate the association between each of the three time-varying aspects of susceptibility and various time-varying factors. MMT increased from 23.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 23, 23.6] to 28.7 (27.0, 29.7) °C. Heat-related mortality risk [relative risk (RR) for the 99th percentile of temperature vs. the MMT] decreased from 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) to 1.01 (0.98, 1.04). Cold-related mortality risk (RR for the first percentile vs. the MMT) generally decreased from 1.48 (1.41, 1.54) to 1.35 (1.32, 1.40), with the exception of a few eastern prefectures that showed increased risk. The changing patterns in all three aspects differed by region, sex, and causes of death. Higher mean temperature was associated ( p <0.01) with lower heat risk, whereas higher humidity was associated with higher cold risk. A higher percentage of elderly people was associated with a higher cold risk, whereas higher economic strength of the prefecture was related to lower cold risk. Population susceptibility to heat has decreased over the last four decades in Japan. Susceptibility to cold has decreased overall except for several eastern prefectures where it has either increased or remained unchanged. Certain climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors explored in the current study might underlie this changing susceptibility. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2546.

Demographic Accounting and Model-Building. Education and Development Technical Reports.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stone, Richard

This report describes and develops a model for coordinating a variety of demographic and social statistics within a single framework. The framework proposed, together with its associated methods of analysis, serves both general and specific functions. The general aim of these functions is to give numerical definition to the pattern of society and…

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs): Participant Activity, Demographics, and Satisfaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shrader, Sara; Wu, Maryalice; Owens, Dawn; Santa Ana, Kathleen

2016-01-01

This paper examines activity patterns, participant demographics, and levels of satisfaction in multiple MOOC offerings at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign from August 2012-December 2013. Using the following guiding questions: "Who are MOOC participants, how do they participate, and were they able to get what they wanted out of…

Moving the Markers: New Perspectives on Adult Literacy Rates in Canada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sussman, Susan B.

2003-01-01

This report describes a project originally intended to identify demographic patterns among adults with low literacy skills in each Canadian province. The project was carried out between March 2000 and June 2001 under the auspices of Movement for Canadian Literacy (MCL). The project was based on the assumption that demographic information about…

Space-time correlations in urban sprawl.

PubMed

Hernando, A; Hernando, R; Plastino, A

2014-02-06

Understanding demographic and migrational patterns constitutes a great challenge. Millions of individual decisions, motivated by economic, political, demographic, rational and/or emotional reasons underlie the high complexity of demographic dynamics. Significant advances in quantitatively understanding such complexity have been registered in recent years, as those involving the growth of cities but many fundamental issues still defy comprehension. We present here compelling empirical evidence of a high level of regularity regarding time and spatial correlations in urban sprawl, unravelling patterns about the inertia in the growth of cities and their interaction with each other. By using one of the world's most exhaustive extant demographic data basis--that of the Spanish Government's Institute INE, with records covering 111 years and (in 2011) 45 million people, distributed among more than 8000 population nuclei--we show that the inertia of city growth has a characteristic time of 15 years, and its interaction with the growth of other cities has a characteristic distance of 80 km. Distance is shown to be the main factor that entangles two cities (60% of total correlations). The power of our current social theories is thereby enhanced.

Inferring Demographic History Using Two-Locus Statistics.

PubMed

Ragsdale, Aaron P; Gutenkunst, Ryan N

2017-06-01

Population demographic history may be learned from contemporary genetic variation data. Methods based on aggregating the statistics of many single loci into an allele frequency spectrum (AFS) have proven powerful, but such methods ignore potentially informative patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between neighboring loci. To leverage such patterns, we developed a composite-likelihood framework for inferring demographic history from aggregated statistics of pairs of loci. Using this framework, we show that two-locus statistics are more sensitive to demographic history than single-locus statistics such as the AFS. In particular, two-locus statistics escape the notorious confounding of depth and duration of a bottleneck, and they provide a means to estimate effective population size based on the recombination rather than mutation rate. We applied our approach to a Zambian population of Drosophila melanogaster Notably, using both single- and two-locus statistics, we inferred a substantially lower ancestral effective population size than previous works and did not infer a bottleneck history. Together, our results demonstrate the broad potential for two-locus statistics to enable powerful population genetic inference. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Millennials and Their Parents: Implications of the New Young Adulthood for Midlife Adults

PubMed Central

Fingerman, Karen L

2017-01-01

Abstract The period of young adulthood has transformed dramatically over the past few decades. Today, scholars refer to “emerging adulthood” and “transitions to adulthood” to describe adults in their 20s. Prolonged youth has brought concomitant prolonged parenthood. This article addresses 3 areas of change in parent/child ties, increased (a) contact between generations, (b) support from parents to grown children as well as coresidence and (c) affection between the generations. We apply the Multidimensional Intergenerational Support Model (MISM) to explain these changes, considering societal (e.g., economic, technological), cultural, family demographic (e.g., fertility, stepparenting), relationship, and psychological (normative beliefs, affection) factors. Several theoretical perspectives (e.g., life course theory, family systems theory) suggest that these changes may have implications for the midlife parents’ well-being. For example, parents may incur deleterious effects from (a) grown children’s problems or (b) their own normative beliefs that offspring should be independent. Parents may benefit via opportunities for generativity with young adult offspring. Furthermore, current patterns may affect future parental aging. As parents incur declines of late life, they may be able to turn to caregivers with whom they have intimate bonds. Alternately, parents may be less able to obtain such care due to demographic changes involving grown children raising their own children later or who have never fully launched. It is important to consider shifts in the nature of young adulthood to prepare for midlife parents’ future aging. PMID:29795793

Dietary variation and stress among prehistoric Jomon foragers from Japan.

PubMed

Temple, Daniel H

2007-08-01

Current archaeological evidence indicates that greater dietary reliance on marine resources is recorded among the eastern Jomon, while plant dependence prevailed in western/inland Japan. The hypothesis that the dietary choices of the western/inland Jomon will be associated with greater systemic stress is tested by comparing carious tooth and enamel hypoplasia frequencies between the eastern and western/inland Jomon. Demographic collapse coincides with climate change during the Middle to Late Jomon period, suggesting dwindling resource availability. It is hypothesized that this change was associated with greater systemic stress and/or dietary change among the Middle to Late Jomon. This hypothesis is tested by comparing enamel hypoplasia and carious tooth frequencies between Middle to Late and Late to Final Jomon foragers. Enamel hypoplasia was significantly more prevalent among the western/inland Jomon. Such findings are consistent with archaeological studies that argue for greater plant consumption and stresses associated with seasonal resource depletion among the western/inland Jomon. Approximately equivalent enamel hypoplasia frequencies between Middle to Late and Late to Final Jomon foragers argues against a demographic collapse in association with diminished nutritional returns. Significant differences in carious tooth frequencies are, however, observed between Middle to Late and Late to Final Jomon foragers. These results suggest a subsistence shift during the Middle to Late Jomon period, perhaps in response to a changed climate. The overall patterns of stress documented by this study indicate wide-spread environmentally directed biological variation among the prehistoric Jomon. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development

PubMed Central

Lesthaeghe, Ron

2014-01-01

This article gives a concise overview of the theoretical development of the concept of the “second demographic transition” since it was coined in 1986, its components, and its applicability, first to European populations and subsequently also to non-European societies as well. Both the demographic and the societal contrasts between the first demographic transition (FDT) and the second demographic transition (SDT) are highlighted. Then, the major criticisms of the SDT theory are outlined, and these issues are discussed in the light of the most recent developments in Europe, the United States, the Far East, and Latin America. It turns out that three major SDT patterns have developed and that these evolutions are contingent on much older systems of kinship and family organization. PMID:25453112

Stratification based on reproductive state reveals contrasting patterns of age-related variation in demographic parameters in the kittiwake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Monnat, J.-Y.

2000-01-01

Heterogeneity in individual quality can be a major obstacle when interpreting age-specific variation in life-history traits. Heterogeneity is likely to lead to within-generation selection, and patterns observed at the population level may result from the combination of hidden patterns specific to subpopulations. Population-level patterns are not relevant to hypotheses concerning the evolution of age-specific reproductive strategies if they differ from patterns at the individual level. We addressed the influence of age and a variable used as a surrogate of quality (yearly reproductive state) on survival and breeding probability in the kittiwake. We found evidence of an effect of age and quality on both demographic parameters. Patterns observed in breeders are consistent with the selection hypothesis, which predicts age-related increases in survival and traits positively correlated with survival. Our results also reveal unexpected age effects specific to subgroups: the influence of age on survival and future breeding probability is not the same in nonbreeders and breeders. These patterns are observed in higher-quality breeding habitats, where the influence of extrinsic factors on breeding state is the weakest. Moreover, there is slight evidence of an influence of sex on breeding probability (not on survival), but the same overall pattern is observed in both sexes. Our results support the hypothesis that age-related variation in demographic parameters observed at the population level is partly shaped by heterogeneity among individuals. They also suggest processes specific to subpopulations. Recent theoreticaI developments lay emphasis on integration of sources of heterogeneity in optimization models to account for apparently 'sub-optimal' empirical patterns. Incorporation of sources of heterogeneity is also the key to investigation of age-related reproductive strategies in heterogeneous populations. Thwarting 'heterogeneity's ruses' has become a major challenge: for detecting and understanding natural processes, and a constructive confrontation between empirical and theoretical studies.

Variation in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) land use indicates production and population peaks prior to European contact.

PubMed

Stevenson, Christopher M; Puleston, Cedric O; Vitousek, Peter M; Chadwick, Oliver A; Haoa, Sonia; Ladefoged, Thegn N

2015-01-27

Many researchers believe that prehistoric Rapa Nui society collapsed because of centuries of unchecked population growth within a fragile environment. Recently, the notion of societal collapse has been questioned with the suggestion that extreme societal and demographic change occurred only after European contact in AD 1722. Establishing the veracity of demographic dynamics has been hindered by the lack of empirical evidence and the inability to establish a precise chronological framework. We use chronometric dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites in regional study areas to evaluate regional land-use within Rapa Nui. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics including precontact land use decline in some near-coastal and upland areas and postcontact increases and subsequent declines in other coastal locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality, with poorer environmental locations declining earlier. This analysis confirms that the intensity of land use decreased substantially in some areas of the island before European contact.

Variation in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) land use indicates production and population peaks prior to European contact

PubMed Central

Stevenson, Christopher M.; Puleston, Cedric O.; Vitousek, Peter M.; Chadwick, Oliver A.; Haoa, Sonia; Ladefoged, Thegn N.

2015-01-01

Many researchers believe that prehistoric Rapa Nui society collapsed because of centuries of unchecked population growth within a fragile environment. Recently, the notion of societal collapse has been questioned with the suggestion that extreme societal and demographic change occurred only after European contact in AD 1722. Establishing the veracity of demographic dynamics has been hindered by the lack of empirical evidence and the inability to establish a precise chronological framework. We use chronometric dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites in regional study areas to evaluate regional land-use within Rapa Nui. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics including precontact land use decline in some near-coastal and upland areas and postcontact increases and subsequent declines in other coastal locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality, with poorer environmental locations declining earlier. This analysis confirms that the intensity of land use decreased substantially in some areas of the island before European contact. PMID:25561523

Spatiotemporal historical datasets at micro-level for geocoded individuals in five Swedish parishes, 1813–1914

PubMed Central

Hedefalk, Finn; Svensson, Patrick; Harrie, Lars

2017-01-01

This paper presents datasets that enable historical longitudinal studies of micro-level geographic factors in a rural setting. These types of datasets are new, as historical demography studies have generally failed to properly include the micro-level geographic factors. Our datasets describe the geography over five Swedish rural parishes, and by linking them to a longitudinal demographic database, we obtain a geocoded population (at the property unit level) for this area for the period 1813–1914. The population is a subset of the Scanian Economic Demographic Database (SEDD). The geographic information includes the following feature types: property units, wetlands, buildings, roads and railroads. The property units and wetlands are stored in object-lifeline time representations (information about creation, changes and ends of objects are recorded in time), whereas the other feature types are stored as snapshots in time. Thus, the datasets present one of the first opportunities to study historical spatio-temporal patterns at the micro-level. PMID:28398288

On aging and aged care in Serbia.

PubMed

Sevo, G; Davidovic, M; Erceg, P; Despotovic, N; Milosevic, D P; Tasic, M

2015-06-01

Serbia is a demographically old nation, with 17.4 % of its residents being aged 65 years and older in 2011. The previous two decades of turbulent history have significantly affected the demographic picture of this country, and their ramifications remain visible in Serbia's economic, political, cultural, and health spheres. Major demographic forces behind population aging in Serbia can be attributed to lower fertility rates, migrations, and declining mortality (reflecting improvements in overall health leading to a longer life expectancy). In Serbia, low fertility and migrations appear to play major roles, although the relative contribution of recent migrations cannot be measured with accuracy. Patterns of demographic aging vary considerably across different geographic, socioeconomic, and cultural settings. The common denominator throughout present day Serbia is extensive political and economic transition. One would expect that, given sufficient time, this process will result in improved population health, and yet, at this stage outcomes of major health care reform in Serbia are somewhat perplexing. For the second consecutive year, Serbia's health care system has been ranked at the very bottom of the scale among 34 European countries. It is then no surprise that the elderly represent particularly vulnerable population segment. This paper discusses some of the issues relevant to these demographic patterns of aging and aged care in contemporary Serbia, focusing on the period after 2000.

Data-driven model for the assessment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in evolving demographic structures

PubMed Central

Arregui, Sergio; Marinova, Dessislava; Sanz, Joaquín

2018-01-01

In the case of tuberculosis (TB), the capabilities of epidemic models to produce quantitatively robust forecasts are limited by multiple hindrances. Among these, understanding the complex relationship between disease epidemiology and populations’ age structure has been highlighted as one of the most relevant. TB dynamics depends on age in multiple ways, some of which are traditionally simplified in the literature. That is the case of the heterogeneities in contact intensity among different age strata that are common to all airborne diseases, but still typically neglected in the TB case. Furthermore, while demographic structures of many countries are rapidly aging, demographic dynamics are pervasively ignored when modeling TB spreading. In this work, we present a TB transmission model that incorporates country-specific demographic prospects and empirical contact data around a data-driven description of TB dynamics. Using our model, we find that the inclusion of demographic dynamics is followed by an increase in the burden levels predicted for the next decades in the areas of the world that are most hit by the disease today. Similarly, we show that considering realistic patterns of contacts among individuals in different age strata reshapes the transmission patterns reproduced by the models, a result with potential implications for the design of age-focused epidemiological interventions. PMID:29563223

Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

PubMed Central

Kuate Defo, Barthélémy

2014-01-01

Background Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. Objective The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Results Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1) theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2) simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3) marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4) the rapid decline in infant mortality and gains in life expectancy from the 1950s through the 1990s in a context of preponderant communicable diseases in all African countries; 5) the salient role of adult mortality, mostly ascribed to HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities, since the 1990s in reversing trends in mortality decline, its interruption of life expectancy improvements, and its reversal of gender differences in life expectancies disadvantaging women in several countries with the highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS; 6) the huge impact of wars in reversing the trends in under-five mortality decline in sub-Saharan countries in the 1990s and beyond. These assessments of these transition frameworks and these phenomena were not well documented to date for all five regions and 57 countries of Africa. Conclusion Prevailing frameworks of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions as descriptive and predictive models are incomplete or irrelevant for charting the population and health experiences and prospects of national populations in the African context. PMID:24848648

Socio-demographic differences in acculturation and mental health for a sample of 2nd generation/early immigrant Arab Americans.

PubMed

Amer, Mona M; Hovey, Joseph D

2007-10-01

This study examined socio-demographic differences in acculturation patterns among early immigrant and second-generation Arab Americans, using data from 120 participants who completed a Web-based study. Although sex, age, education, and income did not significantly relate to the acculturation process, respondents who were female and those who were married reported greater Arab ethnic identity and religiosity. Striking differences were found based on religious affiliation. Christian patterns of acculturation and mental health were consistent with acculturation theory. For Muslims, however, integration was not associated with better mental health, and religiosity was predictive of better family functioning and less depression. The results of this study suggest unique acculturation patterns for Christian and Muslim subgroups that can better inform future research and mental health service.

When Do States Respond to Low Fertility? Contexts of State Concern in Wealthier Countries, 1976-2011.

PubMed

Marshall, Emily A

2015-06-01

Since the 1970s, expressions of state concern over low fertility have greatly increased among wealthier countries. This study asks to what extent this increase is explained by demographic factors, national-level economic and political factors, and processes of international diffusion and changing international norms. Analyses integrate the world polity literature on global policy diffusion with a social problems approach to examine international diffusion of state concern among more powerful members of the world polity, a process that can produce changes in international policy consensus. Comparisons of the characteristics of states that do and do not express concern over low fertility find that among wealthier "first-world" countries, state concern has become more responsive to fertility rates: fertility rates are not significantly associated with concern early in the study period, but are strongly associated with concern later in the study period. There is no evidence that integration into the world polity is associated with concern in these countries, and some evidence that less integrated countries are more likely to express concern, suggesting that processes shaping the diffusion of state concern may differ from those identified as shaping policy diffusion in the existing literature. Among "second-world" former Eastern bloc countries, different patterns of associations reflect different political histories: concern is associated only with demographic factors, with no significant change in this association over time.

When Do States Respond to Low Fertility? Contexts of State Concern in Wealthier Countries, 1976–2011

PubMed Central

Marshall, Emily A.

2015-01-01

Since the 1970s, expressions of state concern over low fertility have greatly increased among wealthier countries. This study asks to what extent this increase is explained by demographic factors, national-level economic and political factors, and processes of international diffusion and changing international norms. Analyses integrate the world polity literature on global policy diffusion with a social problems approach to examine international diffusion of state concern among more powerful members of the world polity, a process that can produce changes in international policy consensus. Comparisons of the characteristics of states that do and do not express concern over low fertility find that among wealthier “first-world” countries, state concern has become more responsive to fertility rates: fertility rates are not significantly associated with concern early in the study period, but are strongly associated with concern later in the study period. There is no evidence that integration into the world polity is associated with concern in these countries, and some evidence that less integrated countries are more likely to express concern, suggesting that processes shaping the diffusion of state concern may differ from those identified as shaping policy diffusion in the existing literature. Among “second-world” former Eastern bloc countries, different patterns of associations reflect different political histories: concern is associated only with demographic factors, with no significant change in this association over time. PMID:26213421

Population Composition, Migration and Inequality: The Influence of Demographic Changes on Disaster Risk and Vulnerability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donner, William; Rodriguez, Havidan

2008-01-01

The changing demographic landscape of the United States calls for a reassessment of the societal impacts and consequences of so called "natural" and technological disasters. An increasing trend towards greater demographic and socio-economic diversity (in part due to high rates of international immigration), combined with mounting…

The Unaddressed Costs of Changing Student Demographics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Leslie S.; Owings, William A.

2013-01-01

This article discusses the impact of changing student demographics on financing education and on our national wellbeing. We begin by examining the research of current student demographics and their relationship to learning and education costs. We then calculate a 1% cost factor from the average per-pupil expenditure based on the 2011 "Digest…

From jhum to broom: Agricultural land-use change and food security implications on the Meghalaya Plateau, India.

PubMed

Behera, Rabi Narayan; Nayak, Debendra Kumar; Andersen, Peter; Måren, Inger Elisabeth

2016-02-01

Human population growth in the developing world drives land-use changes, impacting food security. In India, the dramatic change in demographic dynamics over the past century has reduced traditional agricultural land-use through increasing commercialization. Here, we analyze the magnitude and implications for the farming system by the introduction of cash-cropping, replacing the traditional slash and burn rotations (jhum), of the tribal people on the Meghalaya Plateau, northeast India, by means of agricultural census data and field surveys conducted in seven villages. Land-use change has brought major alterations in hill agricultural practices, enhanced cash-cropping, promoted mono-cropping, changed food consumption patterns, underpinned the emergence of a new food system, and exposed farmers and consumers to the precariousness of the market, all of which have both long- and short-term food security implications. We found dietary diversity to be higher under jhum compared to any of the cash-crop systems, and higher under traditional cash-cropping than under modern cash-cropping.

Exploring Demographic, Physical, and Historical Explanations for the Genetic Structure of Two Lineages of Greater Antillean Bats

PubMed Central

Muscarella, Robert A.; Murray, Kevin L.; Ortt, Derek; Russell, Amy L.; Fleming, Theodore H.

2011-01-01

Observed patterns of genetic structure result from the interactions of demographic, physical, and historical influences on gene flow. The particular strength of various factors in governing gene flow, however, may differ between species in biologically relevant ways. We investigated the role of demographic factors (population size and sex-biased dispersal) and physical features (geographic distance, island size and climatological winds) on patterns of genetic structure and gene flow for two lineages of Greater Antillean bats. We used microsatellite genetic data to estimate demographic characteristics, infer population genetic structure, and estimate gene flow among island populations of Erophylla sezekorni/E. bombifrons and Macrotus waterhousii (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae). Using a landscape genetics approach, we asked if geographic distance, island size, or climatological winds mediate historical gene flow in this system. Samples from 13 islands spanning Erophylla's range clustered into five genetically distinct populations. Samples of M. waterhousii from eight islands represented eight genetically distinct populations. While we found evidence that a majority of historical gene flow between genetic populations was asymmetric for both lineages, we were not able to entirely rule out incomplete lineage sorting in generating this pattern. We found no evidence of contemporary gene flow except between two genetic populations of Erophylla. Both lineages exhibited significant isolation by geographic distance. Patterns of genetic structure and gene flow, however, were not explained by differences in relative effective population sizes, island area, sex-biased dispersal (tested only for Erophylla), or surface-level climatological winds. Gene flow among islands appears to be highly restricted, particularly for M. waterhousii, and we suggest that this species deserves increased taxonomic attention and conservation concern. PMID:21445291

Surveillance programs for detection and characterization of emergent pathogens and antimicrobial resistance: results from the Division of Infectious Diseases, UNIFESP.

PubMed

Colombo, Arnaldo L; Janini, Mario; Salomão, Reinaldo; Medeiros, Eduardo A S; Wey, Sergio B; Pignatari, Antonio C C

2009-09-01

Several epidemiological changes have occurred in the pattern of nosocomial and community acquired infectious diseases during the past 25 years. Social and demographic changes possibly related to this phenomenon include a rapid population growth, the increase in urban migration and movement across international borders by tourists and immigrants, alterations in the habitats of animals and arthropods that transmit disease, as well as the raise of patients with impaired host defense abilities. Continuous surveillance programs of emergent pathogens and antimicrobial resistance are warranted for detecting in real time new pathogens, as well as to characterize molecular mechanisms of resistance. In order to become more effective, surveillance programs of emergent pathogens should be organized as a multicenter laboratory network connected to the main public and private infection control centers. Microbiological data should be integrated to guide therapy, adapting therapy to local ecology and resistance patterns. This paper presents an overview of data generated by the Division of Infectious Diseases, Federal University of São Paulo, along with its participation in different surveillance programs of nosocomial and community acquired infectious diseases.

Changing demographics and state fiscal outlook: the case of sales taxes.

PubMed

Mullins, D R; Wallace, S

1996-04-01

"Broad-scale demographic changes have implications for state and local finance in terms of the composition of the base of revenue sources and their yields. This article examines the effect of such changes on the potential future yield of consumption-based taxes. The effect of household characteristics and composition on the consumption of selected groups of goods subject to ad valorem retail sales taxes is estimated, generating demographic elasticities of consumption. These elasticities are applied to projected demographic changes in eight states through the year 2000. The results show rather wide variation in expected consumption shifts and potential tax bases across the states, with income growth having the greatest effect...." The geographical focus is on the United States. excerpt

How much water do we need for irrigation under Climate Change in the Mediterranean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, Marianela; Alberte, Bondeau; Wolfgang, Cramer; Simon, Decock; Sinan, Shi

2014-05-01

Anthropogenic climate change will very likely alter the hydrological system of already water-limited agricultural landscapes around the Mediterranean. This includes the need for, as well as the availability of irrigation water. On top of that Mediterranean agroecosystems are very likely to be under strong pressure in the near future through changes in consumer demands and diets, increasing urbanization, demographic change, and new markets for agricultural exportation. As a first step to assess the water demand of the agricultural sector, we use an ecohydrological model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed land model, LPJmL) to estimate current and future irrigation water requirements of this region, considering various climate and socio-economic scenarios. LPJmL is a process-based, agricultural and water balance model, where plant growth is ecophysiologically coupled with hydrological variables. For these simulations, the model was adapted to the Mediterranean region in terms of agrosystems as well as crop parameters, and a sensitivity analysis for the irrigation system efficiency was performed. Patterns of current irrigation water requirements differ strongly spatially within the Mediterranean region depending mainly on potential evapotranspiration, the combination of crops cultivated and the extension of irrigated areas. The simulations for the future indicate that the Mediterranean may need considerable additional amounts of irrigation water. However, the regional patterns differ strongly depending on changes in length of growing periods, changes in transpirational rate (temperature and precipitation change, CO2-fertilization), and the consideration of potential improvements in irrigation system efficiency.

A simple, sufficient, and consistent method to score the status of threats and demography of imperiled species

PubMed Central

Webber, Whitney M.; Li, Ya-Wei

2016-01-01

Managers of large, complex wildlife conservation programs need information on the conservation status of each of many species to help strategically allocate limited resources. Oversimplifying status data, however, runs the risk of missing information essential to strategic allocation. Conservation status consists of two components, the status of threats a species faces and the species’ demographic status. Neither component alone is sufficient to characterize conservation status. Here we present a simple key for scoring threat and demographic changes for species using detailed information provided in free-form textual descriptions of conservation status. This key is easy to use (simple), captures the two components of conservation status without the cost of more detailed measures (sufficient), and can be applied by different personnel to any taxon (consistent). To evaluate the key’s utility, we performed two analyses. First, we scored the threat and demographic status of 37 species recently recommended for reclassification under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and 15 control species, then compared our scores to two metrics used for decision-making and reports to Congress. Second, we scored the threat and demographic status of all non-plant ESA-listed species from Florida (54 spp.), and evaluated scoring repeatability for a subset of those. While the metrics reported by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) are often consistent with our scores in the first analysis, the results highlight two problems with the oversimplified metrics. First, we show that both metrics can mask underlying demographic declines or threat increases; for example, ∼40% of species not recommended for reclassification had changes in threats or demography. Second, we show that neither metric is consistent with either threats or demography alone, but conflates the two. The second analysis illustrates how the scoring key can be applied to a substantial set of species to understand overall patterns of ESA implementation. The scoring repeatability analysis shows promise, but indicates thorough training will be needed to ensure consistency. We propose that large conservation programs adopt our simple scoring system for threats and demography. By doing so, program administrators will have better information to monitor program effectiveness and guide their decisions. PMID:27478713

A simple, sufficient, and consistent method to score the status of threats and demography of imperiled species.

PubMed

Malcom, Jacob W; Webber, Whitney M; Li, Ya-Wei

2016-01-01

Managers of large, complex wildlife conservation programs need information on the conservation status of each of many species to help strategically allocate limited resources. Oversimplifying status data, however, runs the risk of missing information essential to strategic allocation. Conservation status consists of two components, the status of threats a species faces and the species' demographic status. Neither component alone is sufficient to characterize conservation status. Here we present a simple key for scoring threat and demographic changes for species using detailed information provided in free-form textual descriptions of conservation status. This key is easy to use (simple), captures the two components of conservation status without the cost of more detailed measures (sufficient), and can be applied by different personnel to any taxon (consistent). To evaluate the key's utility, we performed two analyses. First, we scored the threat and demographic status of 37 species recently recommended for reclassification under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and 15 control species, then compared our scores to two metrics used for decision-making and reports to Congress. Second, we scored the threat and demographic status of all non-plant ESA-listed species from Florida (54 spp.), and evaluated scoring repeatability for a subset of those. While the metrics reported by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) are often consistent with our scores in the first analysis, the results highlight two problems with the oversimplified metrics. First, we show that both metrics can mask underlying demographic declines or threat increases; for example, ∼40% of species not recommended for reclassification had changes in threats or demography. Second, we show that neither metric is consistent with either threats or demography alone, but conflates the two. The second analysis illustrates how the scoring key can be applied to a substantial set of species to understand overall patterns of ESA implementation. The scoring repeatability analysis shows promise, but indicates thorough training will be needed to ensure consistency. We propose that large conservation programs adopt our simple scoring system for threats and demography. By doing so, program administrators will have better information to monitor program effectiveness and guide their decisions.

Federal Republic of Germany: family planning, family policy and demographic policy.

PubMed

Zuhlke, W

1989-01-01

Decades of social change in West Germany and the emergence of an ideology that stresses individualism have altered dramatically procreative behavioral patterns. At present, West Germany is characterized by a low marriage rate (6.1/1000 in 1986), declining fertility (10.3 birth/1000), rising divorce rates (20.1/1000), and increases in the proportion of single-person households (34%). The relationship between family planning, family policy, and demographic policy is unclear and changing. Family planning practice is viewed as a part of comprehensive life planning and is based on factors such as partnership or marital status, sex roles, the conflict between working in the home and having a career, consumer aspirations, and housing conditions. The Government's family policy includes the following components: child benefits, tax relief on children, tax splitting arrangements for married couples, childcare allowance, parental leave, student grants, tax deductions for domiciliary professional help and nursing assistance, and the provision of daycare. Thus, West Germany's family policy is directed more at encouraging and facilitating parenthood and family life than at a setting demographic goals. There is no evidence, however, that such measures will be successful and divergent influences of other policy areas are often more compelling. Nor is there any way to quantify the fertility-costing impact of individual family policy measures. The indistinct nature of family planning policy in West Germany mirrors political differences between the current coalition government, which maintains a traditional view of the family, and the opposition Social-Democratic and Green Parties, which question whether the equality of men and women can be achieved in the context of old family structures.

[Changes in the patterns of food consumption in Latin America].

PubMed

Tagle, M A

1988-09-01

Food consumption patterns have suffered important although not generalized changes in recent years. A series of factors favor these changes, such as variations in family income, rural-urban migration, increase of tertiary activities related to foods, and exposure to commercial propaganda. All of these factors, when compared among them, do not have the same impact or validity. Thus, while the first two induce changes in the food pattern, the last two guide the consumer to certain food products. Modernization of the food pattern in Latin America and the Caribbean has been inspired by the USA food pattern of the previous decade, which from the nutritional and economic points of view, does not prove to be desirable. The average USA diet is rich in both saturated and mono- and polyunsaturated fats, as well as in refined sugar and all types of additives. It is poor in carbohydrates, particular in those of the complex type; most of its protein is of animal origin. It may also be rich in salt and poor in fiber, as it is made up by well-diversified industrialized foods in their presentation, manufactured and marketed by a highly industrialized production-distribution capitalized structure. The adopted model is not in correspondence with out countries' natural resources; it produces a displacement of the consumption patterns based on autochthonous and/or traditional components, and induces an increase in food imports. Since Latin American countries are of poor economic resources, and the model renders expensive products, these are absorbed by the socioeconomic group able to pay for them and/or--intermittently--as a high-cost product by calorie delivered, by the poor groups who are most in need, a situation which would imply serious damage on the quality and quantity of their diet. Changes in food habits and in food consumption patterns are related to a certain socio-demographic process which cannot be stopped. Consequently, this process should be carefully analyzed and understood in order to contribute to channel it in the best possible manner and to protect the food and nutritional situation of the consumer. The expert in nutrition should therefore play an important role in those tasks of public benefit, fundamentally in the areas of regulation and normalization of the quality of new foods, as well as in the diffusion of information and education, at all levels, of the consumer.

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species.

PubMed

Pomara, Lars Y; LeDee, Olivia E; Martin, Karl J; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2014-07-01

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using deep learning and Google Street View to estimate the demographic makeup of neighborhoods across the United States

PubMed Central

Gebru, Timnit; Krause, Jonathan; Wang, Yilun; Chen, Duyun; Deng, Jia; Aiden, Erez Lieberman; Fei-Fei, Li

2017-01-01

The United States spends more than $250 million each year on the American Community Survey (ACS), a labor-intensive door-to-door study that measures statistics relating to race, gender, education, occupation, unemployment, and other demographic factors. Although a comprehensive source of data, the lag between demographic changes and their appearance in the ACS can exceed several years. As digital imagery becomes ubiquitous and machine vision techniques improve, automated data analysis may become an increasingly practical supplement to the ACS. Here, we present a method that estimates socioeconomic characteristics of regions spanning 200 US cities by using 50 million images of street scenes gathered with Google Street View cars. Using deep learning-based computer vision techniques, we determined the make, model, and year of all motor vehicles encountered in particular neighborhoods. Data from this census of motor vehicles, which enumerated 22 million automobiles in total (8% of all automobiles in the United States), were used to accurately estimate income, race, education, and voting patterns at the zip code and precinct level. (The average US precinct contains ∼1,000 people.) The resulting associations are surprisingly simple and powerful. For instance, if the number of sedans encountered during a drive through a city is higher than the number of pickup trucks, the city is likely to vote for a Democrat during the next presidential election (88% chance); otherwise, it is likely to vote Republican (82%). Our results suggest that automated systems for monitoring demographics may effectively complement labor-intensive approaches, with the potential to measure demographics with fine spatial resolution, in close to real time. PMID:29183967

Using deep learning and Google Street View to estimate the demographic makeup of neighborhoods across the United States.

PubMed

Gebru, Timnit; Krause, Jonathan; Wang, Yilun; Chen, Duyun; Deng, Jia; Aiden, Erez Lieberman; Fei-Fei, Li

2017-12-12

The United States spends more than $250 million each year on the American Community Survey (ACS), a labor-intensive door-to-door study that measures statistics relating to race, gender, education, occupation, unemployment, and other demographic factors. Although a comprehensive source of data, the lag between demographic changes and their appearance in the ACS can exceed several years. As digital imagery becomes ubiquitous and machine vision techniques improve, automated data analysis may become an increasingly practical supplement to the ACS. Here, we present a method that estimates socioeconomic characteristics of regions spanning 200 US cities by using 50 million images of street scenes gathered with Google Street View cars. Using deep learning-based computer vision techniques, we determined the make, model, and year of all motor vehicles encountered in particular neighborhoods. Data from this census of motor vehicles, which enumerated 22 million automobiles in total (8% of all automobiles in the United States), were used to accurately estimate income, race, education, and voting patterns at the zip code and precinct level. (The average US precinct contains ∼1,000 people.) The resulting associations are surprisingly simple and powerful. For instance, if the number of sedans encountered during a drive through a city is higher than the number of pickup trucks, the city is likely to vote for a Democrat during the next presidential election (88% chance); otherwise, it is likely to vote Republican (82%). Our results suggest that automated systems for monitoring demographics may effectively complement labor-intensive approaches, with the potential to measure demographics with fine spatial resolution, in close to real time. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

What is Urban? A study of census and satellite-derived urban classes in the United States (1990-2010) with comparisons to India and Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balk, D.; Leyk, S.; Jones, B.; Clark, A.; Montgomery, M.

2017-12-01

Geographers and demographers have contributed much to understanding urban population and urban place. Yet, we nevertheless remain ill-prepared to fully understand past urban processes and our urban future, and importantly, connect that knowledge to pressing concerns such as climate and environmental change. This is largely due to well-known data limitations and inherent inconsistencies in the urban definition across countries and over time and spatial scales, and because urban models and definitions arise out of disciplinary silos. This paper provides a new framework for urban inquiry in that it combines urban definitions used by the U.S. Census Bureau from 1990-2010 with newly available satellite-based (mostly Landsat) data on built-up area from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). We identify areas of agreement and disagreement, as well as the population distribution underlying various GHSL derived built-up land thresholds. Our analysis allows for a systematic means of discerning peri-urban areas from other types of urban development, as well as examines differences in these patterns at the national and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)-level. While we find overwhelming areas of agreement - about 70% of the census-designated urban population can be characterized as living on land that is at least 50% built-up - we also learn much of the significant heterogeneity in levels and patterns of growth between different MSAs. We further compare the US results with those for India and Mexico. This research unlocks the potential of such alternative measures for creating globally and temporally consistent proxies of urban land and may guide further research on consistent modeling of spatial demographic urban change, highly urgent for future work to distinguish between fine-scale levels of urban development and to forecast urban expansion.

Is a clean river fun for all? Recognizing social vulnerability in watershed planning.

PubMed

Cutts, Bethany B; Greenlee, Andrew J; Prochaska, Natalie K; Chantrill, Carolina V; Contractor, Annie B; Wilhoit, Juliana M; Abts, Nancy; Hornik, Kaitlyn

2018-01-01

Watershed planning can lead to policy innovation and action toward environmental protection. However, groups often suffer from low engagement with communities that experience disparate impacts from flooding and water pollution. This can limit the capacity of watershed efforts to dismantle pernicious forms of social inequality. As a result, the benefits of environmental changes often flow to more empowered residents, short-changing the power of watershed-based planning as a tool to transform ecological, economic, and social relationships. The objectives of this paper are to assess whether the worldview of watershed planning actors are sufficiently attuned to local patterns of social vulnerability and whether locally significant patterns of social vulnerability can be adequately differentiated using conventional data sources. Drawing from 35 in-depth interviews with watershed planners and community stakeholders in the Milwaukee River Basin (WI, USA), we identify five unique definitions of social vulnerability. Watershed planners in our sample articulate a narrower range of social vulnerability definitions than other participants. All five definitions emphasize spatial and demographic characteristics consistent with existing ways of measuring social vulnerability. However, existing measures do not adequately differentiate among the spatio-temporal dynamics used to distinguish definitions. In response, we develop two new social vulnerability measures. The combination of interviews and demographic analyses in this study provides an assessment technique that can help watershed planners (a) understand the limits of their own conceptualization of social vulnerability and (b) acknowledge the importance of place-based vulnerabilities that may otherwise be obscured. We conclude by discussing how our methods can be a useful tool for identifying opportunities to disrupt social vulnerability in a watershed by evaluating how issue frames, outreach messages, and engagement tactics. The approach allows watershed planners to shift their own culture in order to consider socially vulnerable populations comprehensively.

Is a clean river fun for all? Recognizing social vulnerability in watershed planning

PubMed Central

Greenlee, Andrew J.; Prochaska, Natalie K.; Chantrill, Carolina V.; Contractor, Annie B.; Wilhoit, Juliana M.; Abts, Nancy; Hornik, Kaitlyn

2018-01-01

Watershed planning can lead to policy innovation and action toward environmental protection. However, groups often suffer from low engagement with communities that experience disparate impacts from flooding and water pollution. This can limit the capacity of watershed efforts to dismantle pernicious forms of social inequality. As a result, the benefits of environmental changes often flow to more empowered residents, short-changing the power of watershed-based planning as a tool to transform ecological, economic, and social relationships. The objectives of this paper are to assess whether the worldview of watershed planning actors are sufficiently attuned to local patterns of social vulnerability and whether locally significant patterns of social vulnerability can be adequately differentiated using conventional data sources. Drawing from 35 in-depth interviews with watershed planners and community stakeholders in the Milwaukee River Basin (WI, USA), we identify five unique definitions of social vulnerability. Watershed planners in our sample articulate a narrower range of social vulnerability definitions than other participants. All five definitions emphasize spatial and demographic characteristics consistent with existing ways of measuring social vulnerability. However, existing measures do not adequately differentiate among the spatio-temporal dynamics used to distinguish definitions. In response, we develop two new social vulnerability measures. The combination of interviews and demographic analyses in this study provides an assessment technique that can help watershed planners (a) understand the limits of their own conceptualization of social vulnerability and (b) acknowledge the importance of place-based vulnerabilities that may otherwise be obscured. We conclude by discussing how our methods can be a useful tool for identifying opportunities to disrupt social vulnerability in a watershed by evaluating how issue frames, outreach messages, and engagement tactics. The approach allows watershed planners to shift their own culture in order to consider socially vulnerable populations comprehensively. PMID:29715285

Separated by sand, fused by dropping water: habitat barriers and fluctuating water levels steer the evolution of rock-dwelling cichlid populations in Lake Tanganyika.

PubMed

Koblmüller, Stephan; Salzburger, Walter; Obermüller, Beate; Eigner, Eva; Sturmbauer, Christian; Sefc, Kristina M

2011-06-01

The conditions of phenotypic and genetic population differentiation allow inferences about the evolution, preservation and loss of biological diversity. In Lake Tanganyika, water level fluctuations are assumed to have had a major impact on the evolution of stenotopic littoral species, though this hypothesis has not been specifically examined so far. The present study investigates whether subtly differentiated colour patterns of adjacent Tropheus moorii populations are maintained in isolation or in the face of continuous gene flow, and whether the presumed influence of water level fluctuations on lacustrine cichlids can be demonstrated in the small-scale population structure of the strictly stenotopic, littoral Tropheus. Distinct population differentiation was found even across short geographic distances and minor habitat barriers. Population splitting chronology and demographic histories comply with our expectation of old and rather stable populations on steeper sloping shore, and more recently established populations in a shallower region. Moreover, population expansions seem to coincide with lake level rises in the wake of Late Pleistocene megadroughts ~100 KYA. The imprint of hydrologic events on current population structure in the absence of ongoing gene flow suggests that phenotypic differentiation among proximate Tropheus populations evolves and persists in genetic isolation. Sporadic gene flow is effected by lake level fluctuations following climate changes and controlled by the persistence of habitat barriers during lake level changes. Since similar demographic patterns were previously reported for Lake Malawi cichlids, our data furthermore strengthen the hypothesis that major climatic events synchronized facets of cichlid evolution across the East African Great Lakes. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Implications of prebasic and a previously undescribed prealternate molt for aging Rusty Blackbirds

Treesearch

Claudial Mettke-Hofmann; Pamela H. Sinclair; Paul B. Hamel; Russell Greenberg

2010-01-01

Aging birds often relies on differences in plumage between immatures and adults, and understanding these patterns can improve our ability to discern demographic patterns within populations. We investigated patterns of prebasic molt of the Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) in fall at Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, and developed a new technique for aging based on...

Recreational Substance Use Patterns and Co-Morbid Psychopathology in Adults with Intellectual Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chaplin, Eddie; Gilvarry, Catherine; Tsakanikos, Elias

2011-01-01

There is very limited evidence on the patterns of recreational substance use among adults with Intellectual Disabilities (ID) who have co-morbid mental health problems. In this study we collected clinical and socio-demographic information as well as data on substance use patterns for consecutive new referrals (N = 115) to specialist mental health…

The Worldwide Growth of Private Higher Education: Cross-National Patterns of Higher Education Institution Foundings by Sector

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buckner, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

This article investigates cross-national patterns of public and private higher education institution (HEI) foundings from 1960 to 2006. It argues that in addition to national demographic and economic factors, patterns of HEI foundings also reflect world-level models about how nations should structure their higher education systems. Findings…

Culture and fertility in the Nepal Himalayas: a test of a hypothesis.

PubMed

Ross, J L

1984-01-01

In the Nepal Himalayas the Tibetan sociocultural system of fraternal polyandry (the form of marriage where 1 woman has 2 or more brothers as husbands) reduces aggregate fertility whereas Hindu marriage patterns appear to maximize fertility since there is very early and universally monogamous marriages. Over an 18-month period, reseach in the upper reaches of the Humla Distrist of northwestern Nepal focused upon 2 culturally distinct but geographically contiguous communities. 1 is Nepali speaking and high-caste Hindu; the other, Tibetan speaking and Buddhist. The 2 populations present a relatively unique natural laboratory in which several key factors (geographic, environmental and economic) are controlled. Population dynamics in these 2 communities are principally determined by patterns of fertility and mortality. A summary of a number of characteristics of the population dynamics of these 2 populations (e.g., age at 1st birth, birth interval, crude birth rate, completed fertility rate, general fertility rate, % children surviving), shows that they are more alike than dissimilar. Fertility levels between the Hindu and Tibetan population are virtually the same. While Tibetan fraternal polyandry does reduce aggregate fertility, the hypothesis that the Tibetans would have a substantially lower fertility rate than the Hindus is false, because the effects of fraternal polyandry are roughly balanced by the effects of post-widowhood celibacy among the Hindus. This study points up an important issue often overlooked in demographic analysis. Aggregate statistics such as the completed fertility rate, while important, can be deceptive, since very different factors can produce the same result at any given point in time. Diachronically, however, these underlying facotrs may change very differently. For example, fraternal poyandry is highly susceptiable to change because of the constant reevaluation of the opportunity costs associated with its practice. Anticipating the potential cause and directions of future change illustrates an important point. It is imperative in demographic analysis to elucidate the sociocultural factors underlying the reproductive performance of the populations. Culture and population dynamics are intimately intertwined in these communities.

The 2030 Problem: Caring for Aging Baby Boomers

PubMed Central

Knickman, James R; Snell, Emily K

2002-01-01

Objective To assess the coming challenges of caring for large numbers of frail elderly as the Baby Boom generation ages. Study Setting A review of economic and demographic data as well as simulations of projected socioeconomic and demographic patterns in the year 2030 form the basis of a review of the challenges related to caring for seniors that need to be faced by society. Study Design A series of analyses are used to consider the challenges related to caring for elders in the year 2030: (1) measures of macroeconomic burden are developed and analyzed, (2) the literatures on trends in disability, payment approaches for long-term care, healthy aging, and cultural views of aging are analyzed and synthesized, and(3)simulations of future income and assets patterns of the Baby Boom generation are developed. Principal Findings The economic burden of aging in 2030 should be no greater than the economic burden associated with raising large numbers of baby boom children in the 1960s. The real challenges of caring for the elderly in 2030 will involve: (1) making sure society develops payment and insurance systems for long-term care that work better than existing ones, (2) taking advantage of advances in medicine and behavioral health to keep the elderly as healthy and active as possible, (3) changing the way society organizes community services so that care is more accessible, and (4) altering the cultural view of aging to make sure all ages are integrated into the fabric of community life. Conclusions To meet the long-term care needs of Baby Boomers, social and public policy changes must begin soon. Meeting the financial and social service burdens of growing numbers of elders will not be a daunting task if necessary changes are made now rather than when Baby Boomers actually need long-term care. PMID:12236388

The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

PubMed

Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

2015-08-01

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

British pharmacists' work-life balance - is it a problem?

PubMed

Seston, Elizabeth; Hassell, Karen

2014-04-01

Using a validated tool, the study aimed to explore pharmacists' experiences of maintaining work/life balance in a large, nationally representative sample of pharmacists in Great Britain (GB). A two-page postal questionnaire was sent in 2008 to all GB-domiciled pharmacists who were registered with the regulatory body for pharmacy in GB (just over 44 000 pharmacists). Demographic information, work patterns and other employment data were collected and analysed using regression techniques to explore the link between these characteristics and a validated measure of work/life balance. The response rate to the census was 69.6% (n = 30 517). Eighty-three per cent (n = 25 243) of respondents were working as a pharmacist and were therefore eligible to complete the work/life balance statements. The results reported here relate to 12 364 individuals who had full data for the work/life balance scale and the demographic and work variables. Findings indicate that age, ethnicity, having caring responsibilities, sector of practice, hours of work and type of job are significant predictors of work/life balance problems. Pharmacy employers and government should recognise the changing demographic characteristics of the profession and consider what support might be available to the workforce to help alleviate work/life balance problems being experienced by certain groups of pharmacists. © 2013 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

Implications of Demographic Change for the Design of Retirement Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biggs, John H.

1994-01-01

The influences that demographic changes may have on the design of private pension plans in the twenty-first century are examined. Major demographic factors to be considered include the aging of the population, declining mortality rate, potential for an even lower mortality rate, improved health for all ages and especially for older workers, and…

Web Usage, Advertising, and Shopping: Relationship Patterns.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Korgaonkar, Pradeep; Wolin, Lori D.

2002-01-01

Discusses Web sales and explores the differences between heavy, medium, and light Web users in terms of their beliefs about Web advertising, attitudes toward Web advertising, purchasing patterns, and demographics. Suggests marketers need to target Web advertising to particular Web users. (Author/LRW)

Pragmatic perspective on conservation genetics and demographic history of the last surviving population of Kashmir red deer (Cervus elaphus hanglu) in India.

PubMed

Mukesh; Kumar, Ved P; Sharma, Lalit K; Shukla, Malay; Sathyakumar, Sambandam

2015-01-01

The hangul (Cervus elaphus hanglu) is of great conservation concern because it represents the easternmost and only hope for an Asiatic survivor of the red deer species in the Indian subcontinent. Despite the rigorous conservation efforts of the Department of Wildlife Protection in Jammu & Kashmir, the hangul population has experienced a severe decline in numbers and range contraction in the past few decades. The hangul population once abundant in the past has largely become confined to the Dachigam landscape, with a recent population estimate of 218 individuals. We investigated the genetic variability and demographic history of the hangul population and found that it has shown a relatively low diversity estimates when compared to other red deer populations of the world. Neutrality tests, which are used to evaluate demographic effects, did not support population expansion, and the multimodal pattern of mismatch distribution indicated that the hangul population is under demographic equilibrium. Furthermore, the hangul population did not exhibit any signature of bottleneck footprints in the past, and Coalescent Bayesian Skyline plot analysis revealed that the population had not experienced any dramatic changes in the effective population size over the last several thousand years. We observed a strong evidence of sub-structuring in the population, wherein the majority of individuals were assigned to different clusters in Bayesian cluster analysis. Population viability analysis demonstrated insignificant changes in the mean population size, with a positive growth rate projected for the next hundred years. We discuss the phylogenetic status of hangul for the first time among the other red deer subspecies of the world and strongly recommend to upgrade hangul conservation status under IUCN that should be discrete from the other red deer subspecies of the world to draw more conservation attention from national and international bodies.

The natural history of achalasia: Evidence of a continuum-"The evolutive pattern theory".

PubMed

Salvador, Renato; Voltarel, Guerrino; Savarino, Edoardo; Capovilla, Giovanni; Pesenti, Elisa; Perazzolo, Anna; Nicoletti, Loredana; Costantini, Andrea; Merigliano, Stefano; Costantini, Mario

2018-04-01

It is currently unclear if the three manometric patterns of esophageal achalasia represent distinct entities or part of a disease continuum. The study's aims were: a) to test the hypothesis that the three patterns represent different stages in the evolution of achalasia; b) to investigate whether manometric patterns change after Laparoscopic-Heller-Dor (LHD). We assessed the patients diagnosed with achalasia who underwent LHD as their first treatment from 1992 to 2016. Their symptoms were scored using a detailed questionnaire for dysphagia, food-regurgitation, and chest pain. Barium-swallow, endoscopy, and esophageal-manometry were performed before and 6 months after surgery. The study population consisted of 511 patients (M:F=283:228). Patients' demographic and clinical data showed that those with pattern III had a shorter history of symptoms, a higher incidence of chest pain, and a less dilated gullet (p<0.001). All patients with a sigmoid-shaped mega-esophagus had pattern I achalasia. One patient with a diagnosis of pattern III achalasia developed pattern II at a follow-up manometry before surgery. At a median follow-up of 30 months (IQR 12-56), the outcome of surgery was positive in 479 patients (91.7%). All patients with pattern I preoperatively had the same pattern after LHD, whereas more than 50% of patients with pattern III before treatment showed pattern I or II after surgery. This study supports the hypothesis/theory that the different manometric patterns represent different stages in the evolution of the disease-where pattern III is the earliest stage, pattern II an intermediate stage, and pattern I the final stage. Copyright © 2017 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socio-demographic and lifestyle determinants of dietary patterns in French-speaking Switzerland, 2009-2012.

PubMed

Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Waeber, Gérard; Vollenweider, Peter; Guessous, Idris

2018-01-12

Food intake is a complex behaviour which can be assessed using dietary patterns. Our aim was to characterize dietary patterns and associated factors in French-speaking Switzerland. Cross-sectional study conducted between 2009 and 2012 in the city of Lausanne, Switzerland, including 4372 participants (54% women, 57.3 ± 10.3 years). Food consumption was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Dietary patterns were assessed by principal components analysis. Three patterns were identified: "Meat & fries"; "Fruits & Vegetables" and "Fatty & sugary". The "Meat & fries" pattern showed the strongest correlations with total and animal protein and cholesterol carbohydrates, dietary fibre and calcium. The "Fruits & Vegetables" pattern showed the strongest correlations with dietary fibre, carotene and vitamin D. The "Fatty & sugary" pattern showed the strongest correlations with total energy and saturated fat. On multivariate analysis, male gender, low educational level and sedentary status were positively associated with the "Meat & fries" and the "Fatty & sugary" patterns, and negatively associated with the "Fruits & Vegetables" pattern. Increasing age was inversely associated with the "Meat & fries" pattern; smoking status was inversely associated with the "Fruits & Vegetables" pattern. Being born in Portugal or Spain was positively associated with the "Meat & fries" and the "Fruits & Vegetables" patterns. Increasing body mass index was positively associated with the "Meat & fries" pattern and inversely associated with the "Fatty & sugary" pattern. Three dietary patterns, one healthy and two unhealthy, were identified in the Swiss population. Several associated modifiable behaviours were identified; the information on socio- demographic determinants allows targeting of the most vulnerable groups in the context of public health interventions.

AIDS communications through social networks: catalyst for behaviour changes in Uganda.

PubMed

Low-Beer, Daniel; Stoneburner, Rand L

2004-05-01

To investigate distinctive communications through social networks which may be associated with population behaviour changes and HIV prevalence declines in Uganda compared to other countries. We undertook a comparative analysis of demographic and HIV behavioural data collected in Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS III) in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe as well as Knowledge, Attitudes and Behaviours (KABP) surveys in Uganda in 1989 and 1995. AIDS behaviours, social communications and channels for communication about AIDS and people with AIDS were analysed by age, sex and country. Modelling was developed to investigate at what stage of the epidemic a majority of people will know someone with AIDS, given differing communication patterns through social networks. Finally AIDS reporting and Voluntary Counselling and Testing (VCT) trends were analysed to assess if the impact of social communications worked through clinical services and interventions or more directly at the population level in community contexts. Uganda showed unique patterns of communications through social networks including a shift from mass and institutional to personal channels for communicating about AIDS, 1989-1995. This was associated with higher levels of knowing someone with AIDS through social networks and, in turn, positive risk ratios for behaviour change including reducing casual sex and condom use. Youth had distinctively high levels of knowing someone with AIDS in Uganda, suggesting widespread community communication across age groups. Patterns of disclosure, AIDS diagnosis and reporting were influential on social communications about AIDS. Over 90%, 45% or under 20% of people know someone with AIDS at peak HIV incidence and high AIDS mortality, depending on whether communications through social networks are extensive or restricted. There are distinctive patterns for communicating through social networks about AIDS and people with AIDS in Uganda. They appear to work directly at population level rather than in response to clinical interventions and testing and may be important in the uptake of the latter services. This communication response provides an important basis for HIV prevention if it is to be scaled to the population level. Vertical prevention (and even treatment) interventions need to engage more closely with local, horizontal communication and behavioural responses to AIDS. Communication programmes have to take root at the level of social networks working though local networks of meetings, chiefs, churches and health personnel as well as the media. Mobilising basic social communications may be a necessary resource (as much as services and finance) to scale HIV prevention and treatment to the population level.

The Relationship between Multiple Substance Use, Perceived Academic Achievements, and Selected Socio-Demographic Factors in a Polish Adolescent Sample

PubMed Central

Mazur, Joanna; Tabak, Izabela; Dzielska, Anna; Wąż, Krzysztof; Oblacińska, Anna

2016-01-01

Predictors of high-risk patterns of substance use are often analysed in relation to demographic and school-related factors. The interaction between these factors and the additional impact of family wealth are still new areas of research. The aim of this study was to find determinants of the most common patterns of psychoactive substance use in mid-adolescence, compared to non-users. A sample of 1202 Polish students (46.1% boys, mean age of 15.6 years) was surveyed in 2013/2014. Four patterns of psychoactive substance use were defined using cluster analysis: non-users—71.9%, mainly tobacco and alcohol users—13.7%, high alcohol and cannabis users—7.2%, poly-users—7.2%. The final model contained the main effects of gender and age, and one three-way (perceived academic achievement × gender × family affluence) interaction. Girls with poor perception of school performance (as compared to girls with better achievements) were at significantly higher risk of being poly-users, in both less and more affluent families (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 5.55 and OR = 3.60, respectively). The impact of family affluence was revealed only in interaction with other factors. Patterns of substance use in mid-adolescence are strongly related to perceived academic achievements, and these interact with selected socio-demographic factors. PMID:28009806

Characterizing and Discovering Spatiotemporal Social Contact Patterns for Healthcare.

PubMed

Yang, Bo; Pei, Hongbin; Chen, Hechang; Liu, Jiming; Xia, Shang

2017-08-01

During an epidemic, the spatial, temporal and demographic patterns of disease transmission are determined by multiple factors. In addition to the physiological properties of the pathogens and hosts, the social contact of the host population, which characterizes the reciprocal exposures of individuals to infection according to their demographic structure and various social activities, are also pivotal to understanding and predicting the prevalence of infectious diseases. How social contact is measured will affect the extent to which we can forecast the dynamics of infections in the real world. Most current work focuses on modeling the spatial patterns of static social contact. In this work, we use a novel perspective to address the problem of how to characterize and measure dynamic social contact during an epidemic. We propose an epidemic-model-based tensor deconvolution framework in which the spatiotemporal patterns of social contact are represented by the factors of the tensors. These factors can be discovered using a tensor deconvolution procedure with the integration of epidemic models based on rich types of data, mainly heterogeneous outbreak surveillance data, socio-demographic census data and physiological data from medical reports. Using reproduction models that include SIR/SIS/SEIR/SEIS models as case studies, the efficacy and applications of the proposed framework are theoretically analyzed, empirically validated and demonstrated through a set of rigorous experiments using both synthetic and real-world data.

The Relationship between Multiple Substance Use, Perceived Academic Achievements, and Selected Socio-Demographic Factors in a Polish Adolescent Sample.

PubMed

Mazur, Joanna; Tabak, Izabela; Dzielska, Anna; Wąż, Krzysztof; Oblacińska, Anna

2016-12-21

Predictors of high-risk patterns of substance use are often analysed in relation to demographic and school-related factors. The interaction between these factors and the additional impact of family wealth are still new areas of research. The aim of this study was to find determinants of the most common patterns of psychoactive substance use in mid-adolescence, compared to non-users. A sample of 1202 Polish students (46.1% boys, mean age of 15.6 years) was surveyed in 2013/2014. Four patterns of psychoactive substance use were defined using cluster analysis: non-users-71.9%, mainly tobacco and alcohol users-13.7%, high alcohol and cannabis users-7.2%, poly-users-7.2%. The final model contained the main effects of gender and age, and one three-way (perceived academic achievement × gender × family affluence) interaction. Girls with poor perception of school performance (as compared to girls with better achievements) were at significantly higher risk of being poly-users, in both less and more affluent families (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 5.55 and OR = 3.60, respectively). The impact of family affluence was revealed only in interaction with other factors. Patterns of substance use in mid-adolescence are strongly related to perceived academic achievements, and these interact with selected socio-demographic factors.

Effects of demographic and health variables on Rasch scaled cognitive scores.

PubMed

Zelinski, Elizabeth M; Gilewski, Michael J

2003-08-01

To determine whether demographic and health variables interact to predict cognitive scores in Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest-Old (AHEAD), a representative survey of older Americans, as a test of the developmental discontinuity hypothesis. Rasch modeling procedures were used to rescale cognitive measures into interval scores, equating scales across measures, making it possible to compare predictor effects directly. Rasch scaling also reduces the likelihood of obtaining spurious interactions. Tasks included combined immediate and delayed recall, the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS), Series 7, and an overall cognitive score. Demographic variables most strongly predicted performance on all scores, with health variables having smaller effects. Age interacted with both demographic and health variables, but patterns of effects varied. Demographic variables have strong effects on cognition. The developmental discontinuity hypothesis that health variables have stronger effects than demographic ones on cognition in older adults was not supported.

Evaluating methods to visualize patterns of genetic differentiation on a landscape.

PubMed

House, Geoffrey L; Hahn, Matthew W

2018-05-01

With advances in sequencing technology, research in the field of landscape genetics can now be conducted at unprecedented spatial and genomic scales. This has been especially evident when using sequence data to visualize patterns of genetic differentiation across a landscape due to demographic history, including changes in migration. Two recent model-based visualization methods that can highlight unusual patterns of genetic differentiation across a landscape, SpaceMix and EEMS, are increasingly used. While SpaceMix's model can infer long-distance migration, EEMS' model is more sensitive to short-distance changes in genetic differentiation, and it is unclear how these differences may affect their results in various situations. Here, we compare SpaceMix and EEMS side by side using landscape genetics simulations representing different migration scenarios. While both methods excel when patterns of simulated migration closely match their underlying models, they can produce either un-intuitive or misleading results when the simulated migration patterns match their models less well, and this may be difficult to assess in empirical data sets. We also introduce unbundled principal components (un-PC), a fast, model-free method to visualize patterns of genetic differentiation by combining principal components analysis (PCA), which is already used in many landscape genetics studies, with the locations of sampled individuals. Un-PC has characteristics of both SpaceMix and EEMS and works well with simulated and empirical data. Finally, we introduce msLandscape, a collection of tools that streamline the creation of customizable landscape-scale simulations using the popular coalescent simulator ms and conversion of the simulated data for use with un-PC, SpaceMix and EEMS. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological determinants of divorce: a structural approach to the explanation of Japanese divorce.

PubMed

Fukurai, H; Alston, J P

1992-01-01

This paper examines the ecological determinants of contemporary Japanese divorce rates on the prefectural level. LISREL and computer-generated graphics are the analytic methods used. The aggregate level of analysis demands the use of the ecological model which posits that demographic changes, economic activities, migration patterns, and the level of urbanization are significant predictors of divorce rate. Our analysis demonstrates that sex ratio, female labor force participation, female in-migration patterns, population increase, and net household income all play a significant role in affecting the divorce rate. Our findings also confirm the well-supported hypothesis that both population density and modernization positively influence modern Japan's divorce rates. The residual analysis also points out that in order to account for the large proportion of the unexplained variance of Japanese divorce, behavioral-related variables and island- or prefecture-specific dimensions need to be included in the ecological model of divorce.

Demographic histories of adaptively diverged riparian and non-riparian species of Ainsliaea (Asteraceae) inferred from coalescent analyses using multiple nuclear loci

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Understanding demographic histories, such as divergence time, patterns of gene flow, and population size changes, in ecologically diverging lineages provide implications for the process and maintenance of population differentiation by ecological adaptation. This study addressed the demographic histories in two independently derived lineages of flood-resistant riparian plants and their non-riparian relatives [Ainsliaea linearis (riparian) and A. apiculata (non-riparian); A. oblonga (riparian) and A. macroclinidioides (non-riparian); Asteraceae] using an isolation-with-migration (IM) model based on variation at 10 nuclear DNA loci. Results The highest posterior probabilities of the divergence time parameters were estimated to be ca. 25,000 years ago for A. linearis and A. apiculata and ca. 9000 years ago for A. oblonga and A. macroclinidioides, although the confidence intervals of the parameters had broad ranges. The likelihood ratio tests detected evidence of historical gene flow between both riparian/non-riparian species pairs. The riparian populations showed lower levels of genetic diversity and a significant reduction in effective population sizes compared to the non-riparian populations and their ancestral populations. Conclusions This study showed the recent origins of flood-resistant riparian plants, which are remarkable examples of plant ecological adaptation. The recent divergence and genetic signatures of historical gene flow among riparian/non-riparian species implied that they underwent morphological and ecological differentiation within short evolutionary timescales and have maintained their species boundaries in the face of gene flow. Comparative analyses of adaptive divergence in two sets of riparian/non-riparian lineages suggested that strong natural selection by flooding had frequently reduced the genetic diversity and size of riparian populations through genetic drift, possibly leading to fixation of adaptive traits in riparian populations. The two sets of riparian/non-riparian lineages showed contrasting patterns of gene flow and genetic differentiation, implying that each lineage showed different degrees of reproductive isolation and that they had experienced unique evolutionary and demographic histories in the process of adaptive divergence. PMID:23273287

Demographically Corrected Normative Standards for the Spanish Language Version of the NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery.

PubMed

Casaletto, Kaitlin B; Umlauf, Anya; Marquine, Maria; Beaumont, Jennifer L; Mungas, Daniel; Gershon, Richard; Slotkin, Jerry; Akshoomoff, Natacha; Heaton, Robert K

2016-03-01

Hispanics are the fastest growing ethnicity in the United States, yet there are limited well-validated neuropsychological tools in Spanish, and an even greater paucity of normative standards representing this population. The Spanish NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery (NIHTB-CB) is a novel neurocognitive screener; however, the original norms were developed combining Spanish- and English-versions of the battery. We developed normative standards for the Spanish NIHTB-CB, fully adjusting for demographic variables and based entirely on a Spanish-speaking sample. A total of 408 Spanish-speaking neurologically healthy adults (ages 18-85 years) and 496 children (ages 3-7 years) completed the NIH Toolbox norming project. We developed three types of scores: uncorrected based on the entire Spanish-speaking cohort, age-corrected, and fully demographically corrected (age, education, sex) scores for each of the seven NIHTB-CB tests and three composites (Fluid, Crystallized, Total Composites). Corrected scores were developed using polynomial regression models. Demographic factors demonstrated medium-to-large effects on uncorrected NIHTB-CB scores in a pattern that differed from that observed on the English NIHTB-CB. For example, in Spanish-speaking adults, education was more strongly associated with Fluid scores, but showed the strongest association with Crystallized scores among English-speaking adults. Demographic factors were no longer associated with fully corrected scores. The original norms were not successful in eliminating demographic effects, overestimating children's performances, and underestimating adults' performances on the Spanish NIHTB-CB. The disparate pattern of demographic associations on the Spanish versus English NIHTB-CB supports the need for distinct normative standards developed separately for each population. Fully adjusted scores presented here will aid in more accurately characterizing acquired brain dysfunction among U.S. Spanish-speakers.

Reproductive pattern in agrarian and immigrant receptor populations: a survey of El Ejido (SE Spain).

PubMed

Alonso, Verónica; Luna, Francisco

2005-06-01

This paper deals with the fertility pattern of the El Ejido population, an agricultural Spanish community characterised by the rapid development of its modern agrarian economy. Consequently, the arrival of immigrants has sharply increased throughout the second half of the twentieth century, with important demographic consequences as well as reproductive changes. The analyses of the age-specific fertility rate (fx) and the total fertility rate (TFR) were used in order to describe the reproductive pattern of this population in 2000. The main characteristics were the following: a) Regarding the temporal change, an important decrease of fx has been observed in all age groups for the last twenty years, as a consequence of progressive birth control. However, the reproductive pattern has kept almost invariable and has been characterised by a maximum fertility at age group of 25-29 years old. b) Regarding the general Spanish fertility, the comparison of fx in both populations suggests a younger maternity in the agricultural population than in the national, the maximum fertility delayed to the 30-34 age group. c) Moreover, the El Ejido population showed a clear higher offspring per woman (TFR = 1.42) than the national (TFR = 1.24), according to the agrarian character of the El Ejido population. d) Finally, this greater reproductive level of El Ejido is also due to the arrival of women at fertile age, who come mainly from Africa, and above all from Morocco.

Modeling Relationships Between Flight Crew Demographics and Perceptions of Interval Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remy, Benjamin; Wilson, Sara R.

2016-01-01

The Interval Management Alternative Clearances (IMAC) human-in-the-loop simulation experiment was conducted to assess interval management system performance and participants' acceptability and workload while performing three interval management clearance types. Twenty-four subject pilots and eight subject controllers flew ten high-density arrival scenarios into Denver International Airport during two weeks of data collection. This analysis examined the possible relationships between subject pilot demographics on reported perceptions of interval management in IMAC. Multiple linear regression models were created with a new software tool to predict subject pilot questionnaire item responses from demographic information. General patterns were noted across models that may indicate flight crew demographics influence perceptions of interval management.

PATTERNS OF MYCOBACTERIUM LEPRAE INFECTION IN WILD NINE-BANDED ARMADILLOS (DASYPUS NOVEMCINCTUS) IN MISSISSIPPI, USA.

PubMed

Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; Loughry, W J; Anderson, Corey Devin; Oli, Madan K

2016-07-01

The nine-banded armadillo ( Dasypus novemcinctus ) is the only known nonhuman reservoir of Mycobacterium leprae , the causative agent of Hansen's disease or leprosy. We conducted a 6-yr study on a wild population of armadillos in western Mississippi that was exposed to M. leprae to evaluate the importance of demographic and spatial risk factors on individual antibody status. We found that spatially derived covariates were not predictive of antibody status. Furthermore, analyses revealed no evidence of clustering by antibody-positive individuals. Lactating females and adult males had higher odds of being antibody positive than did nonlactating females. No juveniles or yearlings were antibody positive. Results of these analyses support the hypothesis that M. leprae infection patterns are spatially homogeneous within this armadillo population. Further research related to movement patterns, contact among individuals, antibody status, and environmental factors could help address hypotheses related to the role of environmental transmission on M. leprae infection and the mechanisms underlying the differential infection patterns among demographic groups.

Ecocultural patterns of family engagement among low-income Latino families of preschool children.

PubMed

McWayne, Christine M; Melzi, Gigliana; Limlingan, Maria Cristina; Schick, Adina

2016-07-01

For the 5 million low-income Latino children in the United States who are disproportionately impacted by the numerous risk factors associated with poverty, it is essential to identify proximal protective factors that mitigate these risks and bolster the academic and social skills that are foundational to a successful transition into formal schooling. Using ecocultural theory as a lens to guide this work, the present study: (a) described patterns of culture-contextualized family engagement among a low-income, Latino sample, and (b) examined relations between these patterns, family demographic factors, and children's language and social skills in preschool. Across Spanish and English language subsamples, we found evidence that there is heterogeneity in patterns of family engagement within and across language groups, such that different forms of family engagement defined the high engagement profiles in particular. We also found that demographic factors (such as child gender, family structure, and parental education and employment) predicted these patterns differentially across language groups, and that these patterns related to children's social and language skills in meaningful ways. Findings provide directions for future research, theory, and practice with this heterogeneous cultural group. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Urbanization and the Resulting Peripheralization in Solo Raya, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradoto, W.; Mardiansjah, F. H.; Manullang, O. R.; Putra, A. A.

2018-02-01

Dynamic urbanization in Solo Raya, a local term for Surakarta Metropolitan, amongst rapid regional based-urbanization in Indonesia, shows the unbalance pattern of growth. A number of Surakarta City’s peripherals become the newly growing area which is characterized by a well-facilitated region, while the former urbanized areas next to the city center present the declining process. Different socioeconomic development triggers a unique mosaic of socio-spatial pattern, on which the phenomena of peripheralization could be investigated. Urban investment that boosted by the political will of both the national and local government has led to a shift in demographic condition. A relatively massive in-migration has been attracted to the peripheral and creates the new landscape of urban-rural society. Complex dynamic of metropolitan growth and the resulting peripheralization reminds that socio-spatial pattern calls the challenges for managing the rapid change of land use and space use. The pattern of urbanization that differs upon the surrounding areas of Surakarta City would be interesting to be explored. This paper will discuss the conceptual framework of peripheral urbanization and the methodological approach. It is actually the part of ongoing research on peripheralisation in Solo Raya.

Longitudinal Analysis of Adolescent Girls' Activity Patterns: Understanding the Influence of the Transition to Licensure

PubMed Central

McDonald, Noreen C.; Merlin, Louis; Hu, Haoting; Shih, Joshu; Cohen, Deborah A.; Evenson, Kelly R.; McKenzie, Thomas L.; Rodriguez, Daniel A.

2016-01-01

The proportion of teens and young adults with driver's licenses has declined sharply in many industrialized countries including the United States. Explanations for this decline have ranged from the introduction of graduated driver licensing programs to the increase in online social interaction. We used a longitudinal cohort study of teenage girls in San Diego and Minneapolis to evaluate factors associated with licensure and whether teens' travel patterns become more independent as they aged. We found that licensure depended not only on age, but on race and ethnicity as well as variables that correlate with household income. Results also showed evidence that teen travel became more independent as teen's age, and that acquiring a license is an important part of this increased independence. However, we found limited evidence that teen's travel-activity patterns changed as a result of acquiring a driver's license. Rather, teen independence resulted in less parental chauffeuring, but little shift in travel patterns. For the larger debate on declining Millennial mobility, our results suggest the need for more nuanced attention to variation across demographic groups and consideration of the equity implications if declines in travel and licensure are concentrated in low-income and minority populations. PMID:28458769

Demographic Changes in the U.S. into the Twenty-First Century: Their Impact on Sport Marketing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofacre, Susan; And Others

1992-01-01

Issues confronting sport marketers as U.S. demographics change include more older people, ethnic groups, working women, and minorities; television hours watched; and changes in family makeup. As the changes affect marketing, sport marketing will have to become more efficient in defining and reaching different markets. (SM)

Demographic Changes of Hispanic Populations and Hispanic Student Enrollment in Texas Community Colleges: A Literature Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hernandez, Jack; Slate, John R.; Joyner, Sheila A.

2015-01-01

In this literature review, Hispanic demographic changes in the United States and in Texas are examined. Hispanics have accounted for large changes in population, population change, and proportion of population. Accordingly, the literature was reviewed regarding Hispanic immigrants, both authorized and non-authorized immigrants. The issue of…

Demographic, socioeconomic and nutritional determinants of daily versus non-daily sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened beverage consumption.

PubMed

Mullie, P; Aerenhouts, D; Clarys, P

2012-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of demographic, socioeconomic and nutritional determinants on daily versus non-daily sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened beverage consumption. Cross-sectional design in 1852 military men. Using mailed questionnaires, sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened beverage consumption was recorded. Principal component analysis was used for dietary pattern analysis. Sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened beverages were consumed daily by 36.3% and 33.2% of the participants, respectively. Age, body mass index (BMI), non-smoking and income were negatively related to sugar-sweetened beverage consumption. High BMI and trying to lose weight were related to artificially sweetened beverages consumption. Three major patterns were obtained from principal component analysis: first, the 'meat pattern', was loaded for red meats and processed meats; second, the 'healthy pattern', was loaded for tomatoes, fruit, whole grain, vegetables, fruit, fish, tea and nuts; finally, the 'sweet pattern' was loaded for sweets, desserts, snacks, high-energy drinks, high-fat dairy products and refined grains. The sugar-sweetened beverage consumption was strongly related with both the meat and sweet dietary patterns and inversely related to the healthy dietary pattern. The artificially sweetened beverage consumption was strongly related with the sweet and healthy dietary pattern. Daily consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages was inversely associated with a healthy dietary pattern. Daily consumption of artificially sweetened beverages was clearly associated with weight-loss intention.

Anthropometric geography applied to the analysis of socioeconomic disparities: cohort trends and spatial patterns of height and robustness in 20th-century Spain

PubMed Central

Camara, Antonio D.; Roman, Joan Garcia

2014-01-01

Anthropometrics have been widely used to study the influence of environmental factors on health and nutritional status. In contrast, anthropometric geography has not often been employed to approximate the dynamics of spatial disparities associated with socioeconomic and demographic changes. Spain exhibited intense disparity and change during the middle decades of the 20th century, with the result that the life courses of the corresponding cohorts were associated with diverse environmental conditions. This was also true of the Spanish territories. This paper presents insights concerning the relationship between socioeconomic changes and living conditions by combining the analysis of cohort trends and the anthropometric cartography of height and physical build. This analysis is conducted for Spanish male cohorts born 1934–1973 that were recorded in the Spanish military statistics. This information is interpreted in light of region-level data on GDP and infant mortality. Our results show an anthropometric convergence across regions that, nevertheless, did not substantially modify the spatial patterns of robustness, featuring primarily robust northeastern regions and weak Central-Southern regions. These patterns persisted until the 1990s (cohorts born during the 1970s). For the most part, anthropometric disparities were associated with socioeconomic disparities, although the former lessened over time to a greater extent than the latter. Interestingly, the various anthropometric indicators utilized here do not point to the same conclusions. Some discrepancies between height and robustness patterns have been found that moderate the statements from the analysis of cohort height alone regarding the level and evolution of living conditions across Spanish regions. PMID:26640422

Typology of emergent eating patterns in early childhood.

PubMed

Hittner, James B; Faith, Myles S

2011-12-01

The stability of eating patterns from infancy through childhood is largely unknown. This study identified subgroups of children based on emergent eating patterns from ages 1 to 3 years and examined differences between groups in demographic, anthropometric and temperamental variables. We conducted secondary analyses of 262 boys and 225 girls from the Colorado Adoption Project. Three eating styles (Reactivity to Food, Predictable Appetite, Distractibility at Mealtime) and five temperaments were assessed at ages 1 and 3 years. Weight and height (length) were assessed on children and mothers. Correlations examined the stability of eating patterns, cluster analysis identified subgroups of emergent eating styles, and analysis of variance identified variables differentiating the derived subgroups. Eating styles were moderately stable over time, although all increased on average. Four subgroups were identified: Diet Expanding and Preference Establishing Eaters (37%), Emerging Reactive Tendency Eaters (23%), Emerging Food-Indifferent and Non-Fussy Eaters (31%), and Emerging High-Reactive and Fussy Eaters (9%). The subgroups differed in year 1 Wt/L and Reaction to Food, and year 1-to-3 changes in Emotionality and Reaction to Food. Four emergent eating patterns were identified. How these subgroups of children differ in later weight and health trajectories warrants research. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hispanic Children and Youth in the United States: A Resource Guide. Reference Books on Family Issues (Vol. 20). Garland Reference Library of Social Science (Vol. 608).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carrasquillo, Angela L.

This book discusses the demographic, cultural, linguistic, socioeconomic, and educational characteristics of Hispanic children and youth. Chapters cover: (1) historical and demographic overview (history of Hispanic presence in the United States, geographic distribution, population size and growth, migration, social and cultural patterns, parent…

Spawning demographics and juvenile dispersal of an adfluvial bull trout population in Trestle Creek, Idaho

Treesearch

Christopher C. Downs; Dona Horan; Erin Morgan-Harris; Robert Jakubowski

2006-01-01

We utilized a screw trap, trap-box weir, remote passive integrated transponder tag (PIT) detection weir, and otolith microchemistry to evaluate (2000–2004) spawning demographics and migration patterns of adfluvial bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in Trestle Creek, Idaho, a tributary to Lake Pend Oreille. Annual repeat spawning was more common than...

Socio-demographic patterns of disability among older adult populations of low-income and middle-income countries: results from World Health Survey.

PubMed

Hosseinpoor, Ahmad Reza; Bergen, Nicole; Kostanjsek, Nenad; Kowal, Paul; Officer, Alana; Chatterji, Somnath

2016-04-01

Our objective was to quantify disability prevalence among older adults of low- and middle-income countries, and measure socio-demographic distribution of disability. World Health Survey data included 53,447 adults aged 50 or older from 43 low- and middle-income countries. Disability was a binary classification, based on a composite score derived from self-reported functional difficulties. Socio-demographic variables included sex, age, marital status, area of residence, education level, and household economic status. A multivariate Poisson regression model with robust variance was used to assess associations between disability and socio-demographic variables. Overall, 33.3 % (95 % CI 32.2-34.4 %) of older adults reported disability. Disability was 1.5 times more common in females, and was positively associated with increasing age. Divorced/separated/widowed respondents reported higher disability rates in all but one study country, and education and wealth levels were inversely associated with disability rates. Urban residence tended to be advantageous over rural. Country-level datasets showed disparate patterns. Effective approaches aimed at disability prevention and improved disability management are warranted, including the inclusion of equity considerations in monitoring and evaluation activities.

U.S. consumer demand for restaurant calorie information: targeting demographic and behavioral segments in labeling initiatives.

PubMed

Kolodinsky, Jane; Reynolds, Travis William; Cannella, Mark; Timmons, David; Bromberg, Daniel

2009-01-01

To identify different segments of U.S. consumers based on food choices, exercise patterns, and desire for restaurant calorie labeling. Using a stratified (by region) random sample of the U.S. population, trained interviewers collected data for this cross-sectional study through telephone surveys. Center for Rural Studies U.S. national health survey. The final sample included 580 responses (22% response rate); data were weighted to be representative of age and gender characteristics of the U.S. population. Self-reported behaviors related to food choices, exercise patterns, desire for calorie information in restaurants, and sample demographics. Clusters were identified using Schwartz Bayesian criteria. Impacts of demographic characteristics on cluster membership were analyzed using bivariate tests of association and multinomial logit regression. Cluster analysis revealed three clusters based on respondents' food choices, activity levels, and desire for restaurant labeling. Two clusters, comprising three quarters of the sample, desired calorie labeling in restaurants. The remaining cluster opposed restaurant labeling. Demographic variables significantly predicting cluster membership included region of residence (p < .10), income (p < .05), gender (p < .01), and age (p < .10). Though limited by a low response and potential self-reporting bias in the phone survey, this study suggests that several groups are likely to benefit from restaurant calorie labeling. Specific demographic clusters could be targeted through labeling initiatives.

Socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic variables affecting the diverse degrees of consanguineous marriages in Spain.

PubMed

Fuster, V; Colantonio, S E

2004-02-01

In a population the inbreeding coefficient alpha is determined by the relative incidence of the various degrees of consanguineous marriages--uncle-niece or aunt-nephew (C12), first cousin (C22), first cousin once removed (C23), second cousin (C33)--which may be related to temporal, geographic, demographic, and economic factors. Using published information from Spain corresponding to urban and rural areas, in this article we seek to establish how each specific relationship behaves with respect to geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors, to determine differential urban-rural patterns, and to study whether the diverse types of consanguineous matings relate homogeneously to these factors. For this purpose we performed multiple regressions in which the dependent variables were the different degrees of consanguinity previously selected and the independent variables were geographic, demographic, and economic factors. Our results indicate that the various types of consanguineous marriages in Spain are more conditioned by geographic, demographic, and economic variables than by the inbreeding level alpha (the coefficient of determination was between 0.22 and 0.72; the maximum for alpha was 0.35). A regional pattern exists in Spain and corresponds to close and to remote kinship, which may be mainly related to economic and family factors. Close relationships appear to be more associated with economic variables, whereas second-cousin marriages correspond largely to rural areas of the Spanish Central Plateau.

MOLECULAR DEMOGRAPHIC HISTORY OF THE ANNUAL SUNFLOWERS HELIANTHUS ANNUUS AND H. PETIOLARIS—LARGE EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZES AND RATES OF LONG-TERM GENE FLOW

PubMed Central

Strasburg, Jared L.; Rieseberg, Loren H.

2008-01-01

Hybridization between distinct species may lead to introgression of genes across species boundaries, and this pattern can potentially persist for extended periods as long as selection at some loci or genomic regions prevents thorough mixing of gene pools. However, very few reliable estimates of long-term levels of effective migration are available between hybridizing species throughout their history. Accurate estimates of divergence dates and levels of gene flow require data from multiple unlinked loci as well as an analytical framework that can distinguish between lineage sorting and gene flow and incorporate the effects of demographic changes within each species. Here we use sequence data from 18 anonymous nuclear loci in two broadly sympatric sunflower species, Helianthus annuus and H. petiolaris, analyzed within an “isolation with migration” framework to make genome-wide estimates of the ages of these two species, long-term rates of gene flow between them, and effective population sizes and historical patterns of population growth. Our results indicate that H. annuus and H. petiolaris are approximately one million years old and have exchanged genes at a surprisingly high rate (long-term Nef m estimates of approximately 0.5 in each direction), with somewhat higher rates of introgression from H. annuus into H. petiolaris than vice versa. In addition, each species has undergone dramatic population expansion since divergence, and both species have among the highest levels of genetic diversity reported for flowering plants. Our results provide the most comprehensive estimate to date of long-term patterns of gene flow and historical demography in a nonmodel plant system, and they indicate that species integrity can be maintained even in the face of extensive gene flow over a prolonged period. PMID:18462213

Demographic studies of Joshua trees in Mojave Desert National Parks: demography with emphasis on germination and recruitment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esque, T.C.; Reynolds, B.; DeFalco, L.A.; Waitman, B.A.; Hughson, Debra

2010-01-01

The study of population change with regard to reproduction, seed dispersal, and germination, establishment, growth, and survival/mortality is known as demography. Demographic studies provide managers with information to assess future trends on the density, distribution, health, and population changes of importance or value, including Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia). Demographic research provides the potential to understand the combined impacts of climate change and land-use practices and determine if strategies for protecting important species are likely to succeed or fall short of management goals and will identify factors that have the potential to de-stabilize populations outside the realm of natural variation so that management strategies can be developed to circumvent challenges for key species, processes, and ecosystems. The National Park Service and US Geological Survey are collaborating to collect demographic information about the demographics of Joshua tree in the Mojave Desert.

Additive Partitioning of Coral Reef Fish Diversity across Hierarchical Spatial Scales throughout the Caribbean

PubMed Central

Francisco-Ramos, Vanessa; Arias-González, Jesús Ernesto

2013-01-01

There is an increasing need to examine regional patterns of diversity in coral-reef systems since their biodiversity is declining globally. In this sense, additive partitioning might be useful since it quantifies the contribution of alpha and beta to total diversity across different scales. We applied this approach using an unbalanced design across four hierarchical scales (80 sites, 22 subregions, six ecoregions, and the Caribbean basin). Reef-fish species were compiled from the Reef Environmental Education Foundation (REEF) database and distributions were confirmed with published data. Permutation tests were used to compare observed values to those expected by chance. The primary objective was to identify patterns of reef-fish diversity across multiple spatial scales under different scenarios, examining factors such as fisheries and demographic connectivity. Total diversity at the Caribbean scale was attributed to β-diversity (nearly 62% of the species), with the highest β-diversity at the site scale. α¯-diversity was higher than expected by chance in all scenarios and at all studied scales. This suggests that fish assemblages are more homogenous than expected, particularly at the ecoregion scale. Within each ecoregion, diversity was mainly attributed to alpha, except for the Southern ecoregion where there was a greater difference in species among sites. β-components were lower than expected in all ecoregions, indicating that fishes within each ecoregion are a subsample of the same species pool. The scenario involving the effects of fisheries showed a shift in dominance for β-diversity from regions to subregions, with no major changes to the diversity patterns. In contrast, demographic connectivity partially explained the diversity pattern. β-components were low within connectivity regions and higher than expected by chance when comparing between them. Our results highlight the importance of ecoregions as a spatial scale to conserve local and regional coral reef-fish diversity. PMID:24205311

Participation Patterns in an Urban Special Olympics Programme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillespie, Mike

2009-01-01

Special Olympics is the largest competitive sports organisation in the world for athletes with intellectual disabilities. The organisation has attempted to make adjustments to its programmes in order to stay relevant to participants. However, minimal investigation relative to participation patterns and demographics of athletes are available. Given…

Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan.

PubMed

Crema, Enrico R; Habu, Junko; Kobayashi, Kenichi; Madella, Marco

2016-01-01

Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD) of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido) and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes.

Summed Probability Distribution of 14C Dates Suggests Regional Divergences in the Population Dynamics of the Jomon Period in Eastern Japan

PubMed Central

Habu, Junko; Kobayashi, Kenichi; Madella, Marco

2016-01-01

Recent advances in the use of summed probability distribution (SPD) of calibrated 14C dates have opened new possibilities for studying prehistoric demography. The degree of correlation between climate change and population dynamics can now be accurately quantified, and divergences in the demographic history of distinct geographic areas can be statistically assessed. Here we contribute to this research agenda by reconstructing the prehistoric population change of Jomon hunter-gatherers between 7,000 and 3,000 cal BP. We collected 1,433 14C dates from three different regions in Eastern Japan (Kanto, Aomori and Hokkaido) and established that the observed fluctuations in the SPDs were statistically significant. We also introduced a new non-parametric permutation test for comparing multiple sets of SPDs that highlights point of divergences in the population history of different geographic regions. Our analyses indicate a general rise-and-fall pattern shared by the three regions but also some key regional differences during the 6th millennium cal BP. The results confirm some of the patterns suggested by previous archaeological studies based on house and site counts but offer statistical significance and an absolute chronological framework that will enable future studies aiming to establish potential correlation with climatic changes. PMID:27128032

Landscape genomics of Sphaeralcea ambigua in the Mojave Desert: a multivariate, spatially-explicit approach to guide ecological restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shryock, Daniel F.; Havrilla, Caroline A.; DeFalco, Lesley; Esque, Todd C.; Custer, Nathan; Wood, Troy E.

2015-01-01

Local adaptation influences plant species’ responses to climate change and their performance in ecological restoration. Fine-scale physiological or phenological adaptations that direct demographic processes may drive intraspecific variability when baseline environmental conditions change. Landscape genomics characterize adaptive differentiation by identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability and mapping the associated landscape patterns. We applied such an approach to Sphaeralcea ambigua, an important restoration plant in the arid southwestern United States, by analyzing variation at 153 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci in the context of environmental gradients separating 47 Mojave Desert populations. We identified 37 potentially adaptive loci through a combination of genome scan approaches. We then used a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) to relate variability in potentially adaptive loci with spatial gradients in temperature, precipitation, and topography. We identified non-linear thresholds in loci frequencies driven by summer maximum temperature and water stress, along with continuous variation corresponding to temperature seasonality. Two GDM-based approaches for mapping predicted patterns of local adaptation are compared. Additionally, we assess uncertainty in spatial interpolations through a novel spatial bootstrapping approach. Our study presents robust, accessible methods for deriving spatially-explicit models of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species that will inform climate change modelling and ecological restoration.

A Theory of Age-Dependent Mutation and Senescence

PubMed Central

Moorad, Jacob A.; Promislow, Daniel E. L.

2008-01-01

Laboratory experiments show us that the deleterious character of accumulated novel age-specific mutations is reduced and made less variable with increased age. While theories of aging predict that the frequency of deleterious mutations at mutation–selection equilibrium will increase with the mutation's age of effect, they do not account for these age-related changes in the distribution of de novo mutational effects. Furthermore, no model predicts why this dependence of mutational effects upon age exists. Because the nature of mutational distributions plays a critical role in shaping patterns of senescence, we need to develop aging theory that explains and incorporates these effects. Here we propose a model that explains the age dependency of mutational effects by extending Fisher's geometrical model of adaptation to include a temporal dimension. Using a combination of simple analytical arguments and simulations, we show that our model predicts age-specific mutational distributions that are consistent with observations from mutation-accumulation experiments. Simulations show us that these age-specific mutational effects may generate patterns of senescence at mutation–selection equilibrium that are consistent with observed demographic patterns that are otherwise difficult to explain. PMID:18660535

Provisioning the Ritual Neolithic Site of Kfar HaHoresh, Israel at the Dawn of Animal Management.

PubMed

Meier, Jacqueline S; Goring-Morris, A Nigel; Munro, Natalie D

2016-01-01

It is widely agreed that a pivotal shift from wild animal hunting to herd animal management, at least of goats, began in the southern Levant by the Middle Pre-Pottery Neolithic B period (10,000-9,500 cal. BP) when evidence of ritual activities flourished in the region. As our knowledge of this critical change grows, sites that represent different functions and multiple time periods are needed to refine the timing, pace and character of changing human-animal relationships within the geographically variable southern Levant. In particular, we investigate how a ritual site was provisioned with animals at the time when herd management first began in the region. We utilize fauna from the 2010-2012 excavations at the mortuary site of Kfar HaHoresh-the longest continuous Pre-Pottery Neolithic B faunal sequence in the south Levantine Mediterranean Hills (Early-Late periods, 10,600-8,700 cal. BP). We investigate the trade-off between wild and domestic progenitor taxa and classic demographic indicators of management to detect changes in hunted animal selection and control over herd animal movement and reproduction. We find that ungulate selection at Kfar HaHoresh differs from neighboring sites, although changes in dietary breadth, herd demographics and body-size data fit the regional pattern of emerging management. Notably, wild ungulates including aurochs and gazelle are preferentially selected to provision Kfar HaHoresh in the PPNB, despite evidence that goat management was underway in the Mediterranean Hills. The preference for wild animals at this important site likely reflects their symbolic significance in ritual and mortuary practice.

The changing profile of disability in the U.S. Army: 1981-2005.

PubMed

Bell, Nicole S; Schwartz, Carolyn E; Harford, Thomas; Hollander, Ilyssa E; Amoroso, Paul J

2008-01-01

we sought to provide a profile of U.S. Army soldiers discharged with a permanent disability and to clarify whether underlying demographic changes explain increasing risks. frequency distributions and logistic regression analyses describe active-duty Army soldiers discharged with a disability (January 1981 through December 2005; N = 108,119). Time-series analysis describes temporal changes in demographic factors associated with disability. disability risk has increased 7-fold over the past 25 years. In 2005, there were 1,262 disability discharges per 100,000 active-duty soldiers. Risk factors include female gender, lower rank, married or formerly married, high school education or less, and age 40 or younger. Army population demographics changed during this time; the average age and tenure of soldiers increased, and the proportion of soldiers who were officers, women, and college educated grew. Adjusting for these demographic changes did not explain the rapidly increasing risk of disability. Time-series models revealed that disability among women is increasing independently of the increasing number of women in the Army; disability is also increasing at a faster pace for younger, lower-ranked, enlisted, and shorter-tenured soldiers. disability is costly and growing in the Army. Temporal changes in underlying Army population demographics do not explain overall disability increases. Disability is increasing most rapidly among female, junior enlisted, and younger soldiers.

Denver Public Schools: Resegregation, Latino Style

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chungmei

2006-01-01

The Denver Public Schools (DPS) provide a unique opportunity to study the dynamics of school segregation within the context of rapid demographic changes and key policy changes. This paper, the first of two reports, focuses on the dynamics of segregation, demographic changes, and implications for graduation rates in the Denver Public Schools. It…

Higher Education Finance Issues in a Period of Transition. Working Papers in Education Finance, No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidtlein, Frank A.; Popovich, Joseph J., Jr.

Trends affecting postsecondary education finance, including declining enrollments, are considered, including: demographic changes, changes in student enrollment rates, fundamental shifts in the economy, and the changing social priority assigned to postsecondary education. Major demographic trends that have major implications for postsecondary…

The Evolution of Human Genetic and Phenotypic Variation in Africa

PubMed Central

Campbell, Michael C.

2010-01-01

Africa is the birthplace of modern humans, and is the source of the geographic expansion of ancestral populations into other regions of the world. Indigenous Africans are characterized by high levels of genetic diversity within and between populations. The pattern of genetic variation in these populations has been shaped by demographic events occurring over the last 200,000 years. The dramatic variation in climate, diet, and exposure to infectious disease across the continent has also resulted in novel genetic and phenotypic adaptations in extant Africans. This review summarizes some recent advances in our understanding of the demographic history and selective pressures that have influenced levels and patterns of diversity in African populations. PMID:20178763

Age- and treatment-related associations with health behavior change among breast cancer survivors

PubMed Central

Anderson, Chelsea; Sandler, Dale P.; Weinberg, Clarice R.; Houck, Kevin; Chunduri, Minal; Hodgson, M. Elizabeth; Sabatino, Susan A.; White, Mary C.; Rodriguez, Juan L.; Nichols, Hazel B.

2017-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to identify demographic and treatment-related factors associated with health-promoting behavior changes after a breast cancer diagnosis. Changes in health behaviors were also evaluated according to weight, exercise, diet and alcohol consumption patterns before breast cancer diagnosis. Materials and methods We examined self-reported behavior changes among 1,415 women diagnosed with breast cancer in the NIEHS Sister Study cohort. Women reported changes in exercising, eating healthy foods, maintaining a healthy body weight, drinking alcohol, smoking, getting enough sleep, spending time with family and friends, and participating in breast cancer awareness events. Results: On average, women were 3.7 years from their breast cancer diagnosis. Overall, 20–36% reported positive changes in exercise, eating healthy foods, maintaining a healthy weight, or alcohol consumption. However, 17% exercised less. With each 5-year increase in diagnosis age, women were 11–16% less likely to report positive change in each of these behaviors (OR=0.84–0.89; p<0.05), except alcohol consumption (OR=0.97; CI: 0.81, 1.17). Women who underwent chemotherapy were more likely to report eating more healthy foods (OR =1.47; 95% CI 1.16–1.86), drinking less alcohol (OR=2.01; 95% CI: 1.01, 4.06), and sleeping enough (OR=1.41; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.91). The majority of women (50–84%) reported no change in exercise, eating healthy foods, efforts to maintain a healthy weight, alcohol consumption, sleep patterns, or time spent with family or friends. Conclusions Many women reported no change in cancer survivorship guideline-supported behaviors after diagnosis. Positive changes were more common among younger women or those who underwent chemotherapy. PMID:28254640

Age- and treatment-related associations with health behavior change among breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Anderson, Chelsea; Sandler, Dale P; Weinberg, Clarice R; Houck, Kevin; Chunduri, Minal; Hodgson, M Elizabeth; Sabatino, Susan A; White, Mary C; Rodriguez, Juan L; Nichols, Hazel B

2017-06-01

The aim of this study was to identify demographic and treatment-related factors associated with health-promoting behavior changes after a breast cancer diagnosis. Changes in health behaviors were also evaluated according to weight, exercise, diet and alcohol consumption patterns before breast cancer diagnosis. We examined self-reported behavior changes among 1415 women diagnosed with breast cancer in the NIEHS Sister Study cohort. Women reported changes in exercising, eating healthy foods, maintaining a healthy body weight, drinking alcohol, smoking, getting enough sleep, spending time with family and friends, and participating in breast cancer awareness events. On average, women were 3.7 years from their breast cancer diagnosis. Overall, 20-36% reported positive changes in exercise, eating healthy foods, maintaining a healthy weight, or alcohol consumption. However, 17% exercised less. With each 5-year increase in diagnosis age, women were 11-16% less likely to report positive change in each of these behaviors (OR = 0.84-0.89; p < 0.05), except alcohol consumption (OR = 0.97; CI: 0.81, 1.17). Women who underwent chemotherapy were more likely to report eating more healthy foods (OR = 1.47; 95% CI 1.16-1.86), drinking less alcohol (OR = 2.01; 95% CI: 1.01, 4.06), and sleeping enough (OR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.91). The majority of women (50-84%) reported no change in exercise, eating healthy foods, efforts to maintain a healthy weight, alcohol consumption, sleep patterns, or time spent with family or friends. Many women reported no change in cancer survivorship guideline-supported behaviors after diagnosis. Positive changes were more common among younger women or those who underwent chemotherapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dietary patterns associated with metabolic syndrome, sociodemographic and lifestyle factors in young adults: the Bogalusa Heart Study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Our objective was to examine the association between dietary patterns (DP) and risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS); and to identify differences in DP by socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle factors. Dietary intake (from an FFQ), anthropometric/biochemical parameters and sociodemographic/lifestyl...

Hispanics in the Work Force, Part II: Hispanic Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Escutia, Marta M.; Prieto, Margarita

This paper evaluates the status of Hispanic women in the United States work force. First, demographic information on age patterns, fertility rates, and educational attainment is reviewed. Then, labor market status is assessed in relation to Hispanic women's labor force participation, employment patterns, and poverty. Next, the Federal response to…

Adjustment Problems of Sibling and Nonsibling Pairs Referred to a School Mental Health Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallagher, Richard; Cowen, Emory L.

1976-01-01

In this study, siblings who developed school adjustment problems had more similar referral patterns than demographically matched, unrelated referral pairs. This effect was strongest among like sex pairs. Common environmental characteristics leading to similar coping patterns were seen to explain the results. (NG)

Patterns of Health-Risk Behavior among Japanese High School Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Takakura, Minoru; Nagayama, Tomoko; Sakihara, Seizo; Willcox, Craig

2001-01-01

Surveyed Japanese high school students' health risk behavior patterns, examining clustering and accumulation of health risk behaviors. Physical inactivity and alcohol use were the most common risk behaviors. Prevalence rates for most risk behaviors varied by demographic variables. Smoking, drinking, and sexual intercourse clustered among both…

"Counseling and Values" Publication Patterns from 1990 to 2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erford, Bradley T.; Erford, Breann M.; Hoffman, Caren; Erford, Matthew R.

2013-01-01

The authors reviewed publication patterns for articles published from 1990 to 2009 in the journal "Counseling and Values". Article content and author demographic characteristics (i.e., sex of authors, nation of domicile, employment setting of authors, frequently contributing individuals and universities) were analyzed by 5-year periods for trends…

Youth and the Modernization of Rural Patterns.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dragut, Aurel

Participation of Romanian youth in the modernization of rural patterns should be viewed in terms of the Romanian village and its economic, socio-cultural, and demographic characteristics. While agricultural technology has improved the quality of life in the Romanian village, the schooling network has been structured according to urban models and…

Demographic Responses To Climate Manipulations Across a Species Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldfather, M. F.

2016-12-01

Species biogeographic responses to climate change will occur through the local extinction and establishment of populations. The overall performance of populations across a species range is shaped by the idiosyncratic sensitivities of demographic rates to the changing climate conditions. Heterogeneous topography partially decouples temperature and soil moisture presenting an opportunity to disentangle demographic sensitivity to multiple local climate variables and refine range shift predictions in response to complex climate change. Since 2013, I have monitored 16 populations of a long-lived alpine plant, Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis (Rosaceae) across the entirety of its altitudinal range in the arid White Mountains, CA (3350 - 4420m). I quantified microclimatic soil moisture and temperature, and the demographic rates of over 4,000 individuals. Demographic rates exhibited sensitivity to accumulated degree-days (ex. reproduction), soil volumetric water content (ex. germination), or the interaction between these climate variables (ex. survival). These observations motivated an experimental test of the relationship between demography and local climate with manipulations of increased summertime temperature and precipitation in nine populations. All demographic rates were sensitive to the climate manipulations and the magnitude of the demographic response depended on the population's location within the range. However, the modeled population growth rate was only minimally affected by the manipulations in most populations. The inverse responses of many of the demographic rates may allow populations to demographically buffer against the climate manipulations. However, in one low elevation edge population the negative effect of heating on survival overwhelmed the positive effect on germination, indicating that the capacity of populations to demographically buffer may have a limit.

Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Booth, Robert K.; Gray, Stephen T.

2009-01-01

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, S.T.; Betancourt, J.L.; Booth, R.K.; Gray, S.T.

2009-01-01

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Markov Chains for Investigating and Predicting Migration: A Case from Southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Bo; Wang, Yiyu; Xu, Haoming

2018-03-01

In order to accurately predict the population’s happiness, this paper conducted two demographic surveys on a new district of a city in western China, and carried out a dynamic analysis using related mathematical methods. This paper argues that the migration of migrants in the city will change the pattern of spatial distribution of human resources in the city and thus affect the social and economic development in all districts. The migration status of the population will change randomly with the passage of time, so it can be predicted and analyzed through the Markov process. The Markov process provides the local government and decision-making bureau a valid basis for the dynamic analysis of the mobility of migrants in the city as well as the ways for promoting happiness of local people’s lives.

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

PubMed Central

Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Booth, Robert K.; Gray, Stephen T.

2009-01-01

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics. PMID:19805104

Impact of demographic change, socioeconomics, and health care resources on life expectancy in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar.

PubMed

Chan, Moon Fai; Taylor, Beverly Joan

2013-05-01

Demographic and socioeconomic changes and the availability of health care resources were collected to examine the impacts on life expectancy in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. An ecological design collecting 29 years (1980-2008) data for three Southeast Asian countries. Life expectancy, demographics, socioeconomic status, and health care resources were collected. The structural equation model indicates that more available health care resources and socioeconomic advantages were more likely to increase life expectancy. By contrast, demographic change was more likely to increase life expectancy by way of health care resources. Results show that factors that had direct impacts on life expectancy in all three countries were socioeconomic status and health care resources. Demographic changes had an indirect influence on life expectancy via health care resources. These findings suggest that policymakers should be focusing on how to remove the barriers that impede access to health care services during economic downturns. In addition, how to increase preventive care for the populations that have less access to health care in communities. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Geographical variations in seasonal mortality across the United States: A bioclimatological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalkstein, Adam

2008-10-01

Human mortality exhibits a strong seasonal pattern with deaths in winter far exceeding those in the summer. Surprisingly, this seasonal trend is evident in all major cities across the United States, seemingly independent of climate. While the pattern itself is clear, its magnitude varies considerably across space, and it is not known if there is regional homogeneity among cities. Additionally, the causal mechanisms relating to pattern variability are not clearly understood. The goal of this study is to conduct a comprehensive geographic analysis of seasonal mortality across the United States, to uncover systematic regional differences in such mortality, and to determine what role weather plays in impacting seasonal mortality rates. Unique seasonal mortality curves were created for 28 Metropolitan Statistical Areas across the United States, and the amplitude and timing of mortality peaks were determined. In addition, seasonality was calculated for different demographic groups and causes of death. Meteorological factors were also evaluated as possible causal mechanisms. The findings here indicate that the seasonality of mortality exhibits strong spatial variation with the largest seasonal mortality amplitudes found in the southwestern United States and the smallest in the North, along with South Florida. In addition, there have been changes in the timing of seasonal mortality; the date of maximum mortality is occurring increasingly early in the year. Demographics also play an important role with women, Whites, and the elderly exhibiting the strongest seasonality in mortality. There is a strong connection between respiratory disease and other causes of death, implying a cause-effect relationship. Meteorology also plays an important role in seasonal mortality; variations in the frequency of certain air masses were associated with changes in the timing and amplitude of seasonal mortality. Finally, there were strong intra-regional similarities that exist among the examined cities, implying that environmental factors are more important than social factors in determining seasonal mortality response. This work begins to fill a large gap within the scientific literature concerning the causes, geographic variation, and meteorological influences on seasonal mortality. Additionally, these results will increase the forecasting capabilities of determining when and where winter mortality will reach unusually high levels.

Digital Divides and Socio-Demographic Factors: A Longitudinal Quantitative Study of Internet Users in U.S. from 2000 to 2010

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Peter H.

2013-01-01

This research attempted to reveal the existence of digital divides, their relationships to users' socio-demographics, and the Internet adoption and usage patterns. It was a longitudinal investigation targeted to the adults eighteen years or older in the household setting from the nation-wide surveys conducted in the United States between 2000…

Some demographic issues affecting private health insurance.

PubMed

Hanning, Brian

2004-01-01

There will be significant changes in the demography of persons with Private Health Insurance (PHI). Two methods of projecting PHI coverage are discussed in this paper. The first assumes the only factors affecting PHI coverage are demographic change and mortality and facilitates comparisons between actual and projected PHI coverage. The second projects the percentage of the population insured in each five year age cohort, and makes allowance for changes in PHI coverage due to all factors. Demographic change will increase Registered Health Benefit Organization (RHBO) premiums by 1.7% per annum. The role of these projections in analysing the effect of future premium increases on PHI retention rates is also discussed.

Spatial extent of analysis influences observed patterns of population genetic structure in a widespread darter species (Percidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Argentina, Jane E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hallerman, Eric M.; Welsh, Stuart A.

2018-01-01

Connectivity among stream fish populations allows for exchange of genetic material and helps maintain genetic diversity, adaptive potential and population stability over time. Changes in species demographics and population connectivity have the potential to permanently alter the genetic patterns of stream fish, although these changes through space and time are variable and understudied in small‐bodied freshwater fish.As a spatially widespread, common species of benthic freshwater fish, the variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) is a model species for documenting how patterns of genetic structure and diversity respond to increasing isolation due to large dams and how scale of study may shape our understanding of these patterns. We sampled variegate darters from 34 sites across their range in the North American Ohio River basin and examined how patterns of genetic structure and diversity within and between populations responded to historical population changes and dams within and between populations.Spatial scale and configuration of genetic structure varied across the eight identified populations, from tributaries within a watershed, to a single watershed, to multiple watersheds that encompass Ohio River mainstem habitats. This multiwatershed pattern of population structuring suggests genetic dispersal across large distances was and may continue to be common, although some populations remain isolated despite no apparent structural dispersal barriers. Populations with low effective population sizes and evidence of past population bottlenecks showed low allelic richness, but diversity patterns were not related to watershed size, a surrogate for habitat availability. Pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) increased with fluvial distance and was related to both historic and contemporary processes. Genetic diversity changes were influenced by underlying population size and stability, and while instream barriers were not strong determinants of genetic structuring or loss of genetic diversity, they reduce population connectivity and may impact long‐term population persistence.The broad spatial scale of this study demonstrated the large spatial extent of some variegate darter populations and indicated that dispersal is more extensive than expected given the movement patterns typically observed for small‐bodied, benthic fish. Dam impacts depended on underlying population size and stability, with larger populations more resilient to genetic drift and allelic richness loss than smaller populations.Other darters that inhabit large river habitats may show similar patterns in landscape‐scale studies, and large river barriers may impact populations of small‐bodied fish more than previously expected. Estimation of dispersal rates and behaviours is critical to conservation of imperilled riverine species such as darters.

Human ecology and behavior and sexually transmitted bacterial infections.

PubMed Central

Holmes, K K

1994-01-01

The three direct determinants of the rate of spread of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are sexual behaviors, the mean duration of infectiousness, and the mean efficiency of sexual transmission of each STD. Underlying ecological and behavioral factors that operate through one or more of these direct determinants lie on a continuum, ranging from those most proximate back to those more remote (in time or mechanism) from the direct determinants. Most remote and least modifiable are the historical stages of economic development that even today conspicuously influence patterns of sexual behavior. Next are the distribution and changing patterns of climate, hygiene, and population density; the global population explosion and stages of the demographic transition; and ongoing changes in human physiology (e.g., menarche at younger age) and culture (e.g., later marriage). More proximate on the continuum are war, migration, and travel; and current policies for economic development and social welfare. Most recent or modifiable are technologic and commercial product development (e.g., oral contraceptives); circumcision, condom, spermicide, and contraception practices; patterns of illicit drug use that influence sexual behaviors; and the accessibility, quality, and use of STD health care. These underlying factors help explain why the curable bacterial STDs are epidemic in developing countries and why the United States is the only industrialized country that has failed to control bacterial STDs during the AIDS era. Images PMID:8146138

Forest Conversion, Agricultural Transitions and the Influence of Multi-scale Market Factors in Southwest Cameroon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordway, E.; Lambin, E.; Asner, G. P.

2015-12-01

The changing structure of demand for commodities associated with food security and energy has had a startling impact on land use change in tropical forests in recent decades. Yet, the composition of conversion in the Congo basin remains a major uncertainty, particularly with regards to the scale of drivers of change. Owing to rapid expansion of production globally and longstanding historical production locally in the Congo basin, oil palm offers a lens through which to evaluate local land use decisions across a spectrum of small- to large-scales of production as well as interactions with regional and global supply chains. We examined the effect of global commodity crop expansion on land use change in Southwest Cameroon using a mixed-methods approach to integrate remote sensing, field surveys and socioeconomic data. Southwest Cameroon (2.5 Mha) has a long history of large- and small-scale agriculture, ranging from mixed crop subsistence agriculture to large monocrop plantations of oil palm, cocoa, and rubber. Trends and spatial patterns of forest conversion and agricultural transitions were analyzed from 2000-2015 using satellite imagery. We used economic, demographic and field survey datasets to assess how regional and global market factors and local commodity crop decisions affect land use patterns. Our results show that oil palm is a major commodity crop expanding in this region, and that conversion is occurring primarily through expansion by medium-scale producers and local elites. Results also indicate that global and regional supply chain dynamics influence local land use decision making. This research contributes new information on land use patterns and dynamics in the Congo basin, an understudied region. More specifically, results from this research contribute information on recent trends of oil palm expansion in Cameroon that will be used in national land use planning strategies.

Detecting future performance of the reservoirs under the changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biglarbeigi, Pardis; Strong, W. Alan; Griffiths, Philip

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect the hydrological cycle resulting in changes in rainfall patterns, seasonal variations as well as flooding and drought. Also, changes in the hydrologic regime of the rivers are another anticipated effects of climate change. This climatic variability put pressure on renewable water resources with its increase in some regions, decrease in the others and high uncertainties in every region. As a result of the pressure of climate change on water resources, the operation of reservoir and dams is expected to experience uncertainties in different aspects such as supplying water and controlling the flood. In this study, we model two hypothetical dams on different streamflows, based on the water needs of 20'000 and 100'000 people. UK, as a country that suffered from several flooding events during the past years, and Iran, as a country with severe water scarcity, are chosen as the nations under study. For this study, the hypothetical modeled dam is located on three streamflows in each nation. Then, the mass-balance model of the system is optimised over 25 years of historical data, considering two objectives: 1) Minimisation of the water deficit in different sectors (agricultural, domestic and industrial) and 2) Minimisation of the flooding around the reservoir catchment. The optimised policies are simulated into the model again under different climate change and demographic scenarios to obtain the Resilience, Reliability and Vulnerability (RRV indices) of the system. In order to gain this goal, two different set of scenarios are introduced; the first set is the scenarios introduced in IPCC assessment in its Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The second set is introduced as a Monte Carlo simulation of demographic and temperature scenarios. Demographic scenarios are defined as the UN's estimation of population based on age, sex, fertility, mortality and migration rates with a 2-year frequency. Temperature scenarios, on the other hand, are defined based on the target of COP21, Paris which proposed to keep "the global temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius, while urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees", as well as temperatures higher than this limit to better address the effects of climate change. Numerical results of the proposed model are anticipated to represent the performance of the system by the year 2100 through RRV indices. RRV metrices are effective means of quantitative estimation of climate change impacts on reservoir system in order to obtain the potential policies to solve the future water supply issues.

Trajectories of change in cognitive function in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Park, Soo Kyung

2018-04-01

To describe changes in cognitive function, as measured by the trail making test; to identify distinct patterns of change in cognitive function; and to examine predictors of change in cognitive function in people with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. How cognitive function changes in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and what factors influence those changes over time is not well known, despite the fact that it declines rapidly in this population and significantly impacts functional decline in healthy older adults. A secondary analysis and longitudinal study with a follow-up period of 3 years. A data set from the National Emphysema Treatment Trial provided participant data. Patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (n = 307) were recruited at a clinical site. Several demographic and clinical measures were assessed at baseline. Trail making test scores were measured at baseline, 1, 2 and 3 years. Cognitive function was stable for 3 years in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, four distinct patterns of change in cognitive function were identified. Age, education, 6-min walk distance and cognitive impairment scores at baseline on the trail making test Part B were significant predictors of worsening cognitive function and below-average cognitive function over 3 years. These findings suggest that increasing exercise capacity improves cognitive function and delays deterioration of cognitive function in people with COPD. Understanding the trajectories of change in cognitive function and predictors of change in cognitive function over 3 years may enable health care providers to identify patients at greatest risk of developing mental deterioration and those who might benefit from interventions to improve cognitive function. Health care providers should periodically assess and frequently screen people with COPD for cognitive function. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change

PubMed Central

Billari, Francesco C.

2015-01-01

Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed. PMID:25912913

Diet and Eating Pattern Modifications Used by Community Living Adults to Manage Their Fecal Incontinence

PubMed Central

Croswell, Emily; Bliss, Donna Z.; Savik, Kay

2010-01-01

Purpose The study aimed to describe modifications in diet and eating patterns made by community-living people to manage fecal incontinence (FI) and to compare these differences according to sex, age, and FI severity. Subjects and Setting Subjects were 188 community-living adults (77% female, 92% white, 34% ≥ 65 years of age) in the upper Midwest who participated in a study about managing FI with dietary fiber. Methods Subjects were interviewed about diet and eating pattern changes that they made to manage FI and self reported demographic data. FI severity was recorded daily. Results Fifty-five percent of participants perceived that some foods worsen their FI (e.g., fatty or spicy foods and dairy products). More women than men (40 vs 18%, p=.008) reported avoiding foods in order to manage FI. A greater percentage of younger than older people believed that fatty/greasy foods (15% vs. 4%,) and alcohol (14% vs. 3%,) worsened their FI. Subjects with a higher FI severity score appeared to wait until FI was more severe before restricting caffeine than those with lower severity scores (22.2 ± 9.8 vs 11.69 ± 8.3, p = .034). One-third of subjects consumed foods rich in dietary fiber to prevent FI. Subjects also reported altered eating or cooking patterns; skipping meals, or eating at consistent times to manage FI. Conclusions Diet modification for managing FI incorporates involves restriction of some foods, along with adding others foods to the diet. Nursing assessments of self-care practices for FI should include diet and eating pattern changes when developing a plan of care. PMID:21076267

Exploiting temporal variability to understand tree recruitment response to climate change

Treesearch

Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Shannon LaDeau; Janneke Hill Ris Lambers

2007-01-01

Predicting vegetation shifts under climate change is a challenging endeavor, given the complex interactions between biotic and abiotic variables that influence demographic rates. To determine how current trends and variation in climate change affect seedling establishment, we analyzed demographic responses to spatiotemporal variation to temperature and soil moisture in...

Phylogeography and demographic history of Lacerta lepida in the Iberian Peninsula: multiple refugia, range expansions and secondary contact zones

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The Iberian Peninsula is recognized as an important refugial area for species survival and diversification during the climatic cycles of the Quaternary. Recent phylogeographic studies have revealed Iberia as a complex of multiple refugia. However, most of these studies have focused either on species with narrow distributions within the region or species groups that, although widely distributed, generally have a genetic structure that relates to pre-Quaternary cladogenetic events. In this study we undertake a detailed phylogeographic analysis of the lizard species, Lacerta lepida, whose distribution encompasses the entire Iberian Peninsula. We attempt to identify refugial areas, recolonization routes, zones of secondary contact and date demographic events within this species. Results Results support the existence of 6 evolutionary lineages (phylogroups) with a strong association between genetic variation and geography, suggesting a history of allopatric divergence in different refugia. Diversification within phylogroups is concordant with the onset of the Pleistocene climatic oscillations. The southern regions of several phylogroups show a high incidence of ancestral alleles in contrast with high incidence of recently derived alleles in northern regions. All phylogroups show signs of recent demographic and spatial expansions. We have further identified several zones of secondary contact, with divergent mitochondrial haplotypes occurring in narrow zones of sympatry. Conclusions The concordant patterns of spatial and demographic expansions detected within phylogroups, together with the high incidence of ancestral haplotypes in southern regions of several phylogroups, suggests a pattern of contraction of populations into southern refugia during adverse climatic conditions from which subsequent northern expansions occurred. This study supports the emergent pattern of multiple refugia within Iberia but adds to it by identifying a pattern of refugia coincident with the southern distribution limits of individual evolutionary lineages. These areas are important in terms of long-term species persistence and therefore important areas for conservation. PMID:21682856

Phylogeography and demographic history of Lacerta lepida in the Iberian Peninsula: multiple refugia, range expansions and secondary contact zones.

PubMed

Miraldo, Andreia; Hewitt, Godfrey M; Paulo, Octavio S; Emerson, Brent C

2011-06-17

The Iberian Peninsula is recognized as an important refugial area for species survival and diversification during the climatic cycles of the Quaternary. Recent phylogeographic studies have revealed Iberia as a complex of multiple refugia. However, most of these studies have focused either on species with narrow distributions within the region or species groups that, although widely distributed, generally have a genetic structure that relates to pre-Quaternary cladogenetic events. In this study we undertake a detailed phylogeographic analysis of the lizard species, Lacerta lepida, whose distribution encompasses the entire Iberian Peninsula. We attempt to identify refugial areas, recolonization routes, zones of secondary contact and date demographic events within this species. Results support the existence of 6 evolutionary lineages (phylogroups) with a strong association between genetic variation and geography, suggesting a history of allopatric divergence in different refugia. Diversification within phylogroups is concordant with the onset of the Pleistocene climatic oscillations. The southern regions of several phylogroups show a high incidence of ancestral alleles in contrast with high incidence of recently derived alleles in northern regions. All phylogroups show signs of recent demographic and spatial expansions. We have further identified several zones of secondary contact, with divergent mitochondrial haplotypes occurring in narrow zones of sympatry. The concordant patterns of spatial and demographic expansions detected within phylogroups, together with the high incidence of ancestral haplotypes in southern regions of several phylogroups, suggests a pattern of contraction of populations into southern refugia during adverse climatic conditions from which subsequent northern expansions occurred. This study supports the emergent pattern of multiple refugia within Iberia but adds to it by identifying a pattern of refugia coincident with the southern distribution limits of individual evolutionary lineages. These areas are important in terms of long-term species persistence and therefore important areas for conservation.

DNA Methylation of Cellular Retinoic Acid-Binding Proteins in Cervical Cancer.

PubMed

Arellano-Ortiz, Ana L; Salcedo-Vargas, Mauricio; Vargas-Requena, Claudia L; López-Díaz, José A; De la Mora-Covarrubias, Antonio; Silva-Espinoza, Juan C; Jiménez-Vega, Florinda

2016-01-01

This study determined the methylation status of cellular retinoic acid-binding protein ( CRABP ) gene promoters and associated them with demographic characteristics, habits, and the presence of human papilloma virus (HPV) in patients with cervical cancer (CC), low and high squamous intraepithelial lesions, and no intraepithelial lesion. Women (n = 158) were selected from the Colposcopy Clinic of Sanitary Jurisdiction II in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico. Demographic characteristics and habit information were collected. Cervical biopsy and endocervical scraping were used to determine methylation in promoter regions by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction technique. We found hemi-methylation patterns in the promoter regions of CRABP1 and CRABP2 ; there was 28.5% hemi-methylation in CRABP1 and 7.0% in that of CRABP2 . Methylation in CRABP1 was associated with age (≥35 years, P = 0.002), family history of cancer ( P = 0.032), the presence of HPV-16 ( P = 0.013), and no alcohol intake ( P = 0.035). These epigenetic changes could be involved in the CC process, and CRABP1 has the potential to be a predictive molecular marker of retinoid therapy response.

DNA Methylation of Cellular Retinoic Acid-Binding Proteins in Cervical Cancer

PubMed Central

Arellano-Ortiz, Ana L.; Salcedo-Vargas, Mauricio; Vargas-Requena, Claudia L.; López-Díaz, José A.; De la Mora-Covarrubias, Antonio; Silva-Espinoza, Juan C.; Jiménez-Vega, Florinda

2016-01-01

This study determined the methylation status of cellular retinoic acid-binding protein (CRABP) gene promoters and associated them with demographic characteristics, habits, and the presence of human papilloma virus (HPV) in patients with cervical cancer (CC), low and high squamous intraepithelial lesions, and no intraepithelial lesion. Women (n = 158) were selected from the Colposcopy Clinic of Sanitary Jurisdiction II in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico. Demographic characteristics and habit information were collected. Cervical biopsy and endocervical scraping were used to determine methylation in promoter regions by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction technique. We found hemi-methylation patterns in the promoter regions of CRABP1 and CRABP2; there was 28.5% hemi-methylation in CRABP1 and 7.0% in that of CRABP2. Methylation in CRABP1 was associated with age (≥35 years, P = 0.002), family history of cancer (P = 0.032), the presence of HPV-16 (P = 0.013), and no alcohol intake (P = 0.035). These epigenetic changes could be involved in the CC process, and CRABP1 has the potential to be a predictive molecular marker of retinoid therapy response. PMID:27867303

Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

PubMed

Miller, Tom E X

2007-07-01

1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

Menstrual change during the menopause transition: do women find it problematic?

PubMed

Mackey, Sandra

2009-10-20

To describe changes in the characteristics of women's menstrual cycles during the menopause transition and to identify whether such changes are perceived by women as being problematic. A cross-sectional descriptive study using a community-based convenience sample of 119 women aged 37-70 years. Participants completed a questionnaire to obtain data on demographic characteristics, menopausal status and changes to menstrual flow, duration, frequency and regularity. There was a common pattern of menstrual change which was of heavier, less frequent, irregular menstruation. Forty one percent of post-menopausal and 40% of women still in the menopause transition stated that, in terms of overall perception, the changes to menstruation experienced during the menopause transition were not problematic or disruptive. When specific change characteristics were examined, significant differences were found in duration of menses (p=0.014) and cycle irregularity (p=0.005) but no significant differences were found on the amount of flow (p=0.125) or frequency of cycles (p=0.142). Increased duration and increased irregularity of occurrence of each period are problematic for women going through the menopause transition, however, increased amount of menstrual flow at each period and increased frequency of cycles are not problematic changes.

Adolescence and changing family relations in the Central Canadian Arctic.

PubMed

Condon, R G

1990-04-01

This paper reports on a ten-year longitudinal study of adolescent development and socialization conducted in the Copper Inuit community of Holman. This research has documented how demographic, social, and economic changes have dramatically altered the patterning and sequencing of traditional Inuit life stages, thus giving rise to a prolonged adolescent life stage which was non-existent in the precontact period. At the same time, Inuit family relations have undergone drastic changes as a result of population increase, population concentration, access to government housing, introduction of formal schooling, and the availability of social subsides. Today, the Copper Inuit family has lost its focus as the primary agent of socialization and learning, and many young Inuit now spend most of their time within the context of a greatly expanded peer group which has gradually acquired the values and aspirations of the southern adolescent sub-culture. This paper will discuss the impact of these changing attitudes upon parent-child relations as well as the social adjustment problems experienced by young Inuit as they strive to find a place in the North's changing social landscape.

Pulmonary changes on HRCT scans in nonsmoking females with COPD due to wood smoke exposure *

PubMed Central

Moreira, Maria Auxiliadora Carmo; Barbosa, Maria Alves; de Queiroz, Maria Conceição de Castro Antonelli Monteiro; Teixeira, Kim Ir Sen Santos; Torres, Pedro Paulo Teixeira e Silva; de Santana, Pedro José; Montadon, Marcelo Eustáquio; Jardim, José Roberto

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To identify and characterize alterations seen on HRCT scans in nonsmoking females with COPD due to wood smoke exposure. METHODS: We evaluated 42 nonsmoking females diagnosed with wood smoke-related COPD and 31 nonsmoking controls with no history of wood smoke exposure or pulmonary disease. The participants completed a questionnaire regarding demographic data, symptoms, and environmental exposure. All of the participants underwent spirometry and HRCT of the chest. The COPD and control groups were adjusted for age (23 patients each). RESULTS: Most of the patients in the study group were diagnosed with mild to moderate COPD (83.3%). The most common findings on HRCT scans in the COPD group were bronchial wall thickening, bronchiectasis, mosaic perfusion pattern, parenchymal bands, tree-in-bud pattern, and laminar atelectasis (p < 0.001 vs. the control group for all). The alterations were generally mild and not extensive. There was a positive association between bronchial wall thickening and hour-years of wood smoke exposure. Centrilobular emphysema was uncommon, and its occurrence did not differ between the groups (p = 0.232). CONCLUSIONS: Wood smoke exposure causes predominantly bronchial changes, which can be detected by HRCT, even in patients with mild COPD. PMID:23670500

Factors influencing time-location patterns and their impact on estimates of exposure: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air).

PubMed

Spalt, Elizabeth W; Curl, Cynthia L; Allen, Ryan W; Cohen, Martin; Williams, Kayleen; Hirsch, Jana A; Adar, Sara D; Kaufman, Joel D

2016-06-01

We assessed time-location patterns and the role of individual- and residential-level characteristics on these patterns within the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) cohort and also investigated the impact of individual-level time-location patterns on individual-level estimates of exposure to outdoor air pollution. Reported time-location patterns varied significantly by demographic factors such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, income, education, and employment status. On average, Chinese participants reported spending significantly more time indoors and less time outdoors and in transit than White, Black, or Hispanic participants. Using a tiered linear regression approach, we predicted time indoors at home and total time indoors. Our model, developed using forward-selection procedures, explained 43% of the variability in time spent indoors at home, and incorporated demographic, health, lifestyle, and built environment factors. Time-weighted air pollution predictions calculated using recommended time indoors from USEPA overestimated exposures as compared with predictions made with MESA Air participant-specific information. These data fill an important gap in the literature by describing the impact of individual and residential characteristics on time-location patterns and by demonstrating the impact of population-specific data on exposure estimates.

The independent influences of age and education on functional brain networks and cognition in healthy older adults.

PubMed

Perry, Alistair; Wen, Wei; Kochan, Nicole A; Thalamuthu, Anbupalam; Sachdev, Perminder S; Breakspear, Michael

2017-10-01

Healthy aging is accompanied by a constellation of changes in cognitive processes and alterations in functional brain networks. The relationships between brain networks and cognition during aging in later life are moderated by demographic and environmental factors, such as prior education, in a poorly understood manner. Using multivariate analyses, we identified three latent patterns (or modes) linking resting-state functional connectivity to demographic and cognitive measures in 101 cognitively normal elders. The first mode (P = 0.00043) captures an opposing association between age and core cognitive processes such as attention and processing speed on functional connectivity patterns. The functional subnetwork expressed by this mode links bilateral sensorimotor and visual regions through key areas such as the parietal operculum. A strong, independent association between years of education and functional connectivity loads onto a second mode (P = 0.012), characterized by the involvement of key hub regions. A third mode (P = 0.041) captures weak, residual brain-behavior relations. Our findings suggest that circuits supporting lower level cognitive processes are most sensitive to the influence of age in healthy older adults. Education, and to a lesser extent, executive functions, load independently onto functional networks-suggesting that the moderating effect of education acts upon networks distinct from those vulnerable with aging. This has important implications in understanding the contribution of education to cognitive reserve during healthy aging. Hum Brain Mapp 38:5094-5114, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Variability of kokanee and rainbow trout food habits, distribution, and population dynamics, in an ultraoligotrophic lake with no manipulative management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buktenica, M.W.; Girdner, S.F.; Larson, G.L.; McIntire, C.D.

2007-01-01

Crater Lake is a unique environment to evaluate the ecology of introduced kokanee and rainbow trout because of its otherwise pristine state, low productivity, absence of manipulative management, and lack of lotic systems for fish spawning. Between 1986 and 2004, kokanee displayed a great deal of variation in population demographics with a pattern that reoccurred in about 10 years. We believe that the reoccurring pattern resulted from density dependent growth, and associated changes in reproduction and abundance, driven by prey resource limitation that resulted from low lake productivity exacerbated by prey consumption when kokanee were abundant. Kokanee fed primarily on small-bodied prey from the mid-water column; whereas rainbow trout fed on large-bodied prey from the benthos and lake surface. Cladoceran zooplankton abundance may be regulated by kokanee. And kokanee growth and reproductive success may be influenced by the availability of Daphnia pulicaria, which was absent in zooplankton samples collected annually from 1990 to 1995, and after 1999. Distribution and diel migration of kokanee varied over the duration of the study and appeared to be most closely associated with prey availability, maximization of bioenergetic efficiency, and fish density. Rainbow trout were less abundant than were kokanee and exhibited less variation in population demographics, distribution, and food habits. There is some evidence that the population dynamics of rainbow trout were in-part related to the availability of kokanee as prey. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Demographic stability and high historical connectivity explain the diversity of a savanna tree species in the Quaternary

PubMed Central

Telles, Mariana P. C.; Chaves, Lázaro J.; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S.; Collevatti, Rosane G.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims Cyclic glaciations were frequent throughout the Quaternary and this affected species distribution and population differentiation worldwide. The present study reconstructed the demographic history and dispersal routes of Eugenia dysenterica lineages and investigated the effects of Quaternary climate change on its spatial pattern of genetic diversity. Methods A total of 333 individuals were sampled from 23 populations and analysed by sequencing four regions of the chloroplast DNA and the internal transcribed spacer of the nuclear DNA. The analyses were performed using a multi-model inference approach based on ecological niche modelling and statistical phylogeography. Key Results Coalescent simulation showed that population stability through time is the most likely scenario. The palaeodistribution dynamics predicted by the ecological niche models revealed that the species was potentially distributed across a large area, extending over Central-Western Brazil through the last glaciation. The lineages of E. dysenterica dispersed from Central Brazil towards populations at the northern, western and south-eastern regions. A historical refugium through time may have favoured lineage dispersal and the maintenance of genetic diversity. Conclusions The results suggest that the central region of the Cerrado biome is probably the centre of distribution of E. dysenterica and that the spatial pattern of its genetic diversity may be the outcome of population stability throughout the Quaternary. The lower genetic diversity in populations in the south-eastern Cerrado biome is probably due to local climatic instability during the Quaternary. PMID:28115317

Time-activity patterns of pregnant women and changes during the course of pregnancy.

PubMed

Nethery, Elizabeth; Brauer, Michael; Janssen, Patti

2009-03-01

Numerous studies suggest that in utero exposures to environmental contaminants are associated with fetal development, congenital anomalies, learning difficulties or other health impacts later in life. Although location and time-activity data have been used to model exposure to specific contaminants in epidemiological studies, little information is available about time-activity patterns of pregnant women. We measured changes in location-based activity patterns over the course of pregnancy (48-h periods, during two or three trimesters) using a self-reported time-activity log among a nonrandom sample of pregnant women (n=62). We assessed the influence of demographics and personal factors on changes in activity over pregnancy using mixed effects regression models. Increasing weeks of pregnancy was a significant predictor for increased time spent at home (1 h/day increase for each trimester of pregnancy), after adjusting for income (2.6 more h/day at home in lowest income group), work status (3.5 more h/day at home for nonworkers) and other children in the family (1.5 more h/day at home with other children). No other measured activities (time outdoors, time in transit modalities or time in other indoor locations) were related to weeks of pregnancy. As our results indicate that pregnant women tend to spend more time at home during the latter stages of pregnancy, future exposure and epidemiological research should consider the potential increase in home-based exposures (i.e., indoor air pollution or chemicals in the home) late in pregnancy, and increased confidence in exposure proxies based on home locations or characteristics during the same period.

Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, Effective Population Size, Demographic History and Regional Connectivity Patterns of the Endangered Dusky Grouper, Epinephelus marginatus (Teleostei: Serranidae), within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone

PubMed Central

Vella, Adriana

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to describe the genetic population structure and demographic history of the endangered marine fish, Epinephelus marginatus, within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone for the purpose of localised conservation planning. Epinephelus marginatus is a long-lived, sedentary, reef-associated protogynous hermaphrodite with high commercial and recreational value that is at risk of extinction throughout its global distribution. Based on global trends, population substructuring and gaps in local knowledge this has led to an increased interest in evaluation of local stock. Assessment of Maltese demography was based on historical and contemporary catch landings data whilst genetic population structure and regional connectivity patterns were evaluated by examining 175 individuals collected within the central Mediterranean region between 2002 and 2009 using 14 nuclear microsatellite loci. Demographic stock assessment of Maltese E. marginatus’ revealed a 99% decline in catch landings between 1947 and 2009 within the Fisheries Management Zone. A contemporary modest mean size was observed, 3 ± 3 kg, where approximately 17% of the population was juvenile, 68% female/sex-changing and 15% were male with a male-to-female sex ratio of 1:5. Genetic analysis describes the overall population of E. marginatus’ within the Fisheries Management Zone as decreasing in size (ƟH = 2.2), which has gone through a significant size reduction in the past (M = 0.41) and consequently shows signs of moderate inbreeding (FIS = 0.10, p < 0.001) with an estimated effective population size of 130 individuals. Results of spatially explicit Bayesian genetic cluster analysis detected two geographically distinct subpopulations within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone and that they are connected to a larger network of E. marginatus’ within the Sicily Channel. Results suggest conservation management should be designed to reflect E. marginatus’ within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone as two management units. PMID:27463811

Patterns of morning and evening fatigue among adults with HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Lerdal, Anners; Gay, Caryl L; Aouizerat, Bradley E; Portillo, Carmen J; Lee, Kathryn A

2011-08-01

Describe patterns of morning and evening fatigue in adults with HIV and examine their relationship to demographic and clinical factors and other symptoms. Most studies of HIV-related fatigue assess average levels of fatigue and do not address its diurnal fluctuations. Patterns of fatigue over the course of the day may have important implications for assessment and treatment. A cross-sectional, correlational design was used with six repeated measures over 72 hours. A convenience sample of 318 HIV-infected adults was recruited in San Francisco. Socio-demographic, clinical and symptom data were collected with questionnaires. CD4+ T-cell count and viral load were obtained from medical records. Participants completed a four-item version of the Lee Fatigue Scale each morning and evening for three consecutive days. Participants were grouped based on their diurnal pattern of fatigue (high evening only, high morning only, high morning and evening and low morning and evening). Group comparisons and logistic regression were used to determine the unique predictors of each fatigue pattern. The high evening fatigue pattern was associated with anxiety and the high morning pattern was associated with anxiety and depression. The morning fatigue pattern showed very little fluctuation between morning and evening, the evening pattern showed the largest fluctuation. The high morning and evening pattern was associated with anxiety, depression and sleep disturbance and this group reported the most fatigue-related distress and interference in functioning. These results provide initial evidence for the importance of assessing the patient's daily pattern of fatigue fluctuation, as different patterns were associated with different symptom experiences and perhaps different aetiologies. Different fatigue patterns may benefit from tailored intervention strategies. Management of depressive symptoms could be tested in patients who experience high levels of morning fatigue. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Maternal and child dietary patterns and their determinants in Nigeria.

PubMed

Nwaru, Bright I; Onyeka, Ifeoma N; Ndiokwelu, Chika; Esangbedo, Dorothy O; Ngwu, Elizabeth K; Okolo, Selina N

2015-07-01

Understanding the overall dietary patterns of a population is a key step in initiating appropriate nutritional interventions and policies. Studies characterising the dietary patterns of Nigerian mothers and children are lacking. Complete dietary data for 13,566 mothers and their 13,506 children were analysed from the 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS), a nationally representative sample, to identify the overall maternal and child dietary patterns and to study the potential determinants of such dietary patterns. The 2008 NDHS included questions that inquired about the food items mothers and their children had consumed during the 24 h preceding the day of the interview. Factor analysis with the principal component procedure was used to construct the dietary patterns, and multiple multilevel logistic regression was used to investigate the determinants of the dietary patterns. Four ('mixed', 'traditional', 'staple foods and milk products' and 'beverages') and five ('mixed', 'selective', 'beverages and candies', 'gruels, grains and semi-solids' and 'infant formula and cereals') distinct dietary patterns were obtained for the mothers and children, respectively. The key determinants of both maternal and child dietary patterns were month of interview, religion, region of residence, maternal education, maternal occupation, wealth index and maternal body mass index. Marital status additionally predicted maternal patterns, while sex of the child, number of siblings, child's age, maternal age and place of residence additionally determined the child's patterns. This study has identified four and five different dietary patterns to characterise the dietary habits of Nigerian mothers and their children, respectively, and has shown the important socio-economic/demographic factors influencing the dietary patterns, which can guide appropriate nutritional interventions among Nigerian mothers and children. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Association of Point-of-Sale E-cigarette Advertising with Socio-Demographic Characteristics of Neighborhoods.

PubMed

Wan, Neng; Siahpush, Mohammad; Shaikh, Raees A; McCarthy, Molly; Ramos, Athena; Correa, Antonia

2018-06-01

Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) marketing expenditure is skyrocketing in the United States. However, little is understood about the geographic and socio-demographic patterns of e-cigarette advertising. We examined the associations between point-of-sale (POS) e-cigarette advertising and neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics in the Omaha Metropolitan Area of Nebraska. In 2014, fieldworkers collected comprehensive POS e-cigarette advertising data from all stores that sell tobacco (n = 463) in the Omaha Metropolitan Area. We used Geographic Information Systems to map POS e-cigarette advertisement density for the entire study area. Linear regression was used to examine the association between socio-demographic factors and POS e-cigarette advertising density. E-cigarette advertising density exhibited an obviously uneven geographic pattern in Omaha. Higher level of POS e-cigarette advertising was significantly related to lower median household income, higher percentage of Hispanics, and higher percentage of young adults. However, after adjusting for covariates, only median household income remained significantly associated with POS e-cigarette advertising. We found geographic, socioeconomic, and racial and ethnic disparities in exposure to POS e-cigarette advertising in Omaha, Nebraska. Future studies are needed to understand how these disparities influence e-cigarette adoption by different social groups and how to use such information to inform e-cigarette prevention strategies.

[Twenty-second conference of the Czechoslovak Demographic Society: "The Demographic Position of Czechoslovakia within Europe and the World"].

PubMed

Fialova, L; Rychtarikova, J; Roubicek, V; Stloukal, L; Veres, P; Koschin, F; Novakova, B; Pavlik, Z

1992-01-01

This is a collection of short papers presented at a conference held in Prague, Czechoslovakia, in 1991. The focus of the conference was on the demographic changes that have occurred in Czechoslovakia since World War II and their relationship to such changes in the rest of Europe and elsewhere in the world. Essay topics include fertility trends; contraceptive prevalence, including abortion rates; living standards and health care; and changes in the age structure. Some data for selected countries are included for comparison. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis)

PubMed Central

Ruane, Sara; Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Burbrink, Frank T.

2015-01-01

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene. PMID:26083467

[Impact of demographic changes on health care expenditure in Germany: an analysis considering the expenditures of decedents].

PubMed

Gandjour, A; Ihle, P; Schubert, I

2008-02-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of demographic changes on future health care expenditure of the German social health insurances considering the expenditures of survivors and decedents by age. The study analysed data from 269,646 members up to the age of 99 years of the AOK - one of Germany's largest social health insurers - in the State of Hesse in 2000/2001. In order to determine future health care expenditures, per-capita expenditures by age for outpatient, inpatient, rehabilitation, and nursing services of survivors and decedents (death within the next 12 months) were multiplied by the estimated number of survivors and decedents by age in Germany in 2020, 2035 und 2050. Expenditures for all ages were summed together. The paper shows that demographic changes until 2050 will lead to an increase of health care expenditures by 20% in total or less than 1% annually. Considering the future re-duction in workforce, demographic changes until 2050 will result in an estimated increase in health care expenditures per employee by about 57% (undifferentiated model). Considering the cost of survivors and decedents separately, this increase will amount to 50%. Hence, undifferentiated models overestimate the impact of demographic changes by about 10%.

Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis).

PubMed

Ruane, Sara; Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Burbrink, Frank T

2015-01-01

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene.

"Journal of Counseling & Development" Publication Patterns: Author and Article Characteristics From 1994 to 2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erford, Bradley T.; Miller, Emily M.; Schein, Hallie; McDonald, Allison; Ludwig, Lisa; Leishear, Kathleen

2011-01-01

Publication patterns of articles in the "Journal of Counseling & Development" from 1994 to 2009 were reviewed. Trends over time were analyzed in article content (e.g., type, content topic) and author demographic characteristics (i.e., gender, nation of domicile, and employment setting). Of particular interest because of the scientific…

Public Support for Public Schools: The Past, the Future, and the Federal Role.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piele, Philip K.

1983-01-01

Various indices of public support for the schools--school finance voting patterns, public opinion polls, and court litigation--are analyzed to document current trends. Two possible scenarios are forecast for the future, based on socioeconomic and demographic patterns. The need for future government support is stressed. (PP)

Career Patterns: A Twenty-Year Panel Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biemann, Torsten; Zacher, Hannes; Feldman, Daniel C.

2012-01-01

Using 20years of employment and job mobility data from a representative German sample (N = 1259), we employ optimal matching analysis (OMA) to identify six career patterns which deviate from the traditional career path of long-term, full-time employment in one organization. Then, in further analyses, we examine which socio-demographic predictors…

Phylogeography of the bark beetle Dendroctonus mexicanus Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae)

Treesearch

Miguel A. Anducho-Reyes; Anthony I. Cognato; Jane L. Hayes; Gerardo. Zuniga

2008-01-01

Dendroctonus mexicanus is polyphagous within the Pinus genus and has a wide geographical distribution in Mexico and Guatemala. We examined the pattern of genetic variation across the range of this species to explore its demographic history and its phylogeographic pattern. Analysis of the mtDNA sequences of 173 individuals from...

Mother-Child Interactional Patterns in High- and Low-Risk Mothers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dolz, Laura; Cerezo, M. Angeles; Milner, Joel S.

1997-01-01

A study of 10 high-risk (of child physical abuse) and 10 demographically similar low-risk Spanish mother-child dyads investigated interactional patterns in the home. High-risk mothers made fewer neutral approaches to their children, displayed more negative behaviors toward their children, and made more indiscriminate responses to their children's…

Parental Activity as a Determinant of Activity Level and Patterns of Activity in Obese Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalakanis, Lisa E.; Goldfield, Gary S.; Paluch, Rocco A.; Epstein, Leonard H.

2001-01-01

Investigated the level and pattern of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in obese children, examining predictors of their activity. Children and their parents wore accelerometers for several days and provided demographic data. Parental activity levels significantly and independently predicted and improved the prediction of children's…

Submission Patterns: "Measurement and Evaluation in Counseling and Development" Author and Article Characteristics from 1990 to 2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erford, Bradley T.; Miller, Emily M.; Duncan, Kelly; Erford, Breann M.

2010-01-01

Submission patterns of articles accepted for publication in "Measurement and Evaluation in Counseling and Development" from 1990 to 2009 are reviewed. Trends are analyzed in article content (i.e., type, issue, statistical procedures) and author demographic characteristics (e.g., sex, nation of domicile, professional title, departmental…

A Study of Career Patterns of the Presidents of Independent Colleges and Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley III, Harold V.; Godin, Eric E.

2009-01-01

"A Study of Career Patterns of the Presidents of Independent Colleges and Universities," examines the various career routes and other characteristics of first-time presidents. Using data from the American Council on Education American College President Study, CIC analyzed the career pathways; demographic characteristics such as gender,…

A Metastudy of "Journal of Employment Counseling" Publication Patterns from 1994 through 2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erford, Bradley T.; Crockett, Stephanie; Giguere, Monica; Darrow, Jenna

2011-01-01

The authors reviewed article and author patterns for articles published in the "Journal of Employment Counseling (JEC)" from 1994 through 2009. Author demographic characteristics assessed included sex of lead and all authors, lead author domicile, employment setting of lead and all authors, and individuals and universities contributing most…

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Demographic transition and the dynamics of measles in six provinces in China: A modeling study

PubMed Central

Su, Qiru; An, Zhijie; Ma, Fubao; Xie, Shuyun; Xu, Aiqiang; Zhang, Yanyang; Ding, Zhengrong; Li, Hui; Wang, Huaqing; Luo, Huiming; Wang, Ning; Li, Li; Ferrari, Matthew J.

2017-01-01

Background Industrialization and demographic transition generate nonstationary dynamics in human populations that can affect the transmission and persistence of infectious diseases. Decades of increasing vaccination and development have led to dramatic declines in the global burden of measles, but the virus remains persistent in much of the world. Here we show that a combination of demographic transition, as a result of declining birth rates, and reduced measles prevalence, due to improved vaccination, has shifted the age distribution of susceptibility to measles throughout China. Methods and findings We fit a novel time-varying catalytic model to three decades of age-specific measles case reporting in six provinces in China to quantify the change in the age-specific force of infection for measles virus over time. We further quantified the impact of supplemental vaccination campaigns on the reduction of susceptible individuals. The force of infection of measles has declined dramatically (90%–97% reduction in transmission rate) in three industrialized eastern provinces during the last decade, driving a concomitant increase in both the relative proportion and absolute number of adult cases, while three central and western provinces exhibited dynamics consistent with endemic persistence (24%–73% reduction in transmission rate). The reduction in susceptible individuals due to supplemental vaccination campaigns is frequently below the nominal campaign coverage, likely because campaigns necessarily vaccinate those who may already be immune. The impact of these campaigns has significantly improved over time: campaigns prior to 2005 were estimated to have achieved less than 50% reductions in the proportion susceptible in the target age classes, but campaigns from 2005 onwards reduced the susceptible proportion by 32%–87%. A limitation of this study is that it relies on case surveillance, and thus inference may be biased by age-specific variation in measles reporting. Conclusions The age distribution of measles cases changes in response to both demographic and vaccination processes. Combining both processes in a novel catalytic model, we illustrate that age-specific incidence patterns reveal regional differences in the progress to measles elimination and the impact of vaccination controls in China. The shift in the age distribution of measles susceptibility in response to demographic and vaccination processes emphasizes the importance of progressive control strategies and measures to evaluate program success that anticipate and react to this transition in observed incidence. PMID:28376084

Pharmaco-economic impact of demographic change on pharmaceutical expenses in Germany and France

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Most European health care systems are suffering from the impact of demographic change. In short, aging of society is leading to higher costs of treatment per capita, while reproduction rates below 2.1 children per woman lead to a reduced number of younger people to provide for the necessary contributions into the health insurance system. This research paper addresses the questions what impact the demographic development will have on one particular spending area, what are pharmaceutical expenditure in two of Europe’s largest health care systems, Germany and France, and what the implications are for pharmaceutical companies. Methods The research is based on publicly available data from German and French health ministries, the OECD, and institutes which focus on projection of demographic development in those countries. In a first step, data was clustered into age groups, and average spending on pharmaceuticals was allocated to that. In the second step, these figures were extrapolated, based on the projected change in the demographic structure of the countries from 2004 until 2050. This leads to a deeper understanding of demand for pharmaceutical products in the future due to the demographic development as a single driving factor. Results Pharmaceutical expenses per head (patient) will grow only slightly until 2050 (0.5% p.a. in both countries). Demographic change alone only provides for a slowly growing market for pharmaceutical companies both in Germany and in France, but for a relevant change in the consumption mix of pharmaceutical products, based on a shift of relevance of different age groups. Conclusions Despite demographic changes pharmaceutical expenses per head (patient) and the overall pharmaceutical markets will grow only slightly until 2050 in Germany as well as in France. Nevertheless, the aging of society implies different challenges for pharmaceutical companies and also for the health care system. Companies have to cope with the shift of relevance of different age groups and within the health care system new options for financing the slowly growing expenses have to be found. PMID:23092314

Demographic change and income distribution.

PubMed

Von Weizsacker, R K

1989-03-01

This paper examines the interactions between demographic change and income distribution, especially in the context of government. Starting from a simple, descriptive life-cycle model of individual income, this paper established an explicit link between the age composition of a population and the personal distribution of incomes. Demographic effects on income inequality are derived. Next, 2 income maintenance programs are introduced: a redistributive tax-transfer scheme and a pay-as-you-go financed state pension system. The resulting government budget constraints entail interrelations between fiscal and demographic variables, causing an additional, indirect demographic impact on the distribution. This is shown not only to change, but in some cases even to reverse the distributional incidence of demographic trends. The superimposition of different age structures on populations of otherwise identical characteristics is non-neutral with respect to income distribution: disregarding state interventions, population aging increases income inequality. This result may no longer generally hold if redistribution policies are taken into account. The paper provides an example of how indirect demographic effects may lead to a reversal of sign. In the absence of any government program, a higher ratio of pensioners to active workers raises income inequality. In the presence of a redistributive tax-transfer scheme and pay-as-you-go financed state pension system, a higher dependency ratio decreases income dispersion. The restoration of government budget equilibrium induces unintended distributional effects which put the incidence of demographic shifts in a different light. Varying important aging indicator with realistic forecast bounds leads to inequality fluctuations up to 35%. This illustrates the quantitative scale and hence the political importance of demographically caused inequality distortions.

Mobile phone ownership and use among school children in three Hungarian cities.

PubMed

Mezei, Gabor; Benyi, Maria; Muller, Agnes

2007-05-01

In spite of rapid worldwide increase in mobile phone use and public concerns about associated potential health effects, little is known about patterns of mobile phone ownership and use in the general population and among children. In April 2005, we conducted a survey of mobile phone ownership and use among fourth grade school children in three Hungarian cities. From 24 schools, 1301 student filled out a short, self-administered questionnaire on basic demographics, mobile phone ownership, pattern of mobile phone use, and after-school activities. Overall, 989 students (76%) owned a mobile phone. Three hundred thirteen students (24%) used a mobile phone daily to make phone calls, and an additional 427 students (33%) used mobile phones for phone calls at least several times per week. Sixty-six students (5%) sent text messages daily and an additional 308 students (24%) sent text messages at least several times per week. Girls, children with no siblings, children who were members of a sport club, and children who played computer games daily were more likely to own and use mobile phones regularly. A higher number of socially disadvantaged children in a class predicted lower likelihood of regular mobile phone use among children. Our results suggest that mobile phone ownership and regular use is highly prevalent among school children in Hungary. Due to rapid changes in ownership patterns follow up surveys will be required to obtain information on temporal trends and changes in mobile phone ownership and pattern of use among school children. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Román, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

2015-06-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roman, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

2015-01-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services.

PubMed

Román, Miguel O; Stokes, Eleanor C

2015-06-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Land cover characterization and mapping of continental southeast Asia using multi-resolution satellite sensor data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giri, Chandra; Defourny, Pierre; Shrestha, Surendra

2003-01-01

Land use/land cover change, particularly that of tropical deforestation and forest degradation, has been occurring at an unprecedented rate and scale in Southeast Asia. The rapid rate of economic development, demographics and poverty are believed to be the underlying forces responsible for the change. Accurate and up-to-date information to support the above statement is, however, not available. The available data, if any, are outdated and are not comparable for various technical reasons. Time series analysis of land cover change and the identification of the driving forces responsible for these changes are needed for the sustainable management of natural resources and also for projecting future land cover trajectories. We analysed the multi-temporal and multi-seasonal NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data of 1985/86 and 1992 to (1) prepare historical land cover maps and (2) to identify areas undergoing major land cover transformations (called ‘hot spots’). The identified ‘hot spot’ areas were investigated in detail using high-resolution satellite sensor data such as Landsat and SPOT supplemented by intensive field surveys. Shifting cultivation, intensification of agricultural activities and change of cropping patterns, and conversion of forest to agricultural land were found to be the principal reasons for land use/land cover change in the Oudomxay province of Lao PDR, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam and the Loei province of Thailand, respectively. Moreover, typical land use/land cover change patterns of the ‘hot spot’ areas were also examined. In addition, we developed an operational methodology for land use/land cover change analysis at the national level with the help of national remote sensing institutions.

National health expenditures, 1986-2000

PubMed Central

1987-01-01

Patterns of spending for health during 1986 and beyond reflect a mixture of adherence to and change from historical trends. From a level of $458 billion in 1986—10.9 percent of the GNP—national health expenditures are projected to reach $1.5 trillion by the year 2000—15.0 percent of the GNP. This article presents a provisional estimate of spending in 1986 and projections of spending (under the assumption of current law) through the year 2000. Also discussed are the effects of the demographic composition of the population on spending for health, and how spending would increase in the future simply as a result of the evolution of that composition. PMID:10312184

Socio-demographic patterns of posttraumatic stress disorder in Medellin, Colombia and the context of lifetime trauma exposure

PubMed Central

Gaviria, Silvia Lucia; Espinola, Maria; Restrepo, Diana; Lotero, Juliana; Berbesi, Dedsy Y.; Sierra, Gloria Maria; Chaskel, Roberto; Espinel, Zelde; Shultz, James M.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Colombia, South America is currently transitioning to post-conflict status following 6 decades of armed conflict. The population has experienced extensive exposures to potentially traumatic events throughout the lifespan. Sources of trauma exposure include the prolonged armed insurgency, narco-trafficking violence, urban gang violence, violent actions of criminal bands, intra-familial violence, gender-based violence, and sex trafficking. Exposure to potentially traumatic events is related to a variety of psychiatric outcomes, in particular, posttraumatic stress disorder. Given this context of lifetime trauma exposure, socio-demographic patterns of posttraumatic stress disorder were explored in a sample of residents of Medellin, Colombia, the nation's second largest city and a nexus for multiple types of trauma exposure. PMID:28265488

Diversifying High Schools in Racially Changing Suburban Districts: Expanding Opportunity, Creating Barriers?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frankenberg, Erica; Ayscue, Jennifer B.; Tyler, Alison C.

2016-01-01

Although demographic change is happening more rapidly at the elementary school level, the intersection of these demographic trends with the changing mission of high schools may offer the opportunity to reduce some of the persistent racial gaps in educational attainment. At the same time, when schools became diverse as desegregation took place,…

Demographic Changes and Literacy Development in a Decade. Working Paper Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reder, Stephen; Edmonston, Barry

Anticipated demographic changes in the United States adult population in the decade between the National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS) of 1992 and the National Assessment of Adult Literacy (NAAL), which is scheduled for 2002, were reviewed. Next, the implications of those changes for the NALS and NAAL were analyzed. The analysis focused on births,…

Recent Changes in the Demographic Structure of Urban and Rural Families. Working Paper No. 7706.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, David L.

Despite pervasive and far-reaching changes in the institution of the family in this century, demographic data suggest not a breakdown of the American family; rather, significant change has occurred in its structure and function. Timing of family formation and childbearing, household size and living arrangements, marital stability (including racial…

City 2020+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, C.; Buttstädt, M.; Merbitz, H.; Sachsen, T.; Ketzler, G.; Michael, S.; Klemme, M.; Dott, W.; Selle, K.; Hofmeister, H.

2010-09-01

This research initiative CITY 2020+ assesses the risks and opportunities for residents in urban built environments under projected demographic and climate change for the year 2020 and beyond, using the City of Aachen as a case study. CITY 2020+ develops scenarios, options and tools for planning and developing sustainable future city structures. We investigate how urban environment, political structure and residential behavior can best be adapted, with attention to the interactions among structural, political, and sociological configurations and with their consequences on human health. Demographers project that in the EU-25-States by 2050, approximately 30% of the population will be over age 65. Also by 2050, average tem¬peratures are projected to rise by 1 to 2 K. Combined, Europe can expect enhanced thermal stress and higher levels of particulate matter. CITY 2020+ amongst other sub-projects includes research project dealing with (1) a micro-scale assessment of blockages to low-level cold-air drainage flow into the city centre by vegetation and building structures, (2) a detailed analysis of the change of probability density functions related to the occurrence of heat waves during summer and the spatial and temporal structure of the urban heat island (UHI) (3) a meso-scale analysis of particulate matter (PM) concentrations depending on topography, local meteorological conditions and synoptic-scale weather patterns. First results will be presented specifically from sub-projects related to vegetation barriers within cold air drainage, the assessment of the UHI and the temporal and spatial pattern of PM loadings in the city centre. The analysis of the cold air drainage flow is investigated in two consecutive years with a clearing of vegetation stands in the beginning of the second year early in 2010. The spatial pattern of the UHI and its possible enhancement by climate change is addressed employing a unique setup using GPS devices and temperature probes fixed to several public transport units running all across the city. This is accompanied by an analysis of probability density functions (PDF) for heat waves based on recent climate data and climate projections. A dense net of 40 PM measurement sites is operated in order to obtain the spatial pattern of PM concentration as depending on meteorological condition and location. It is lined out how this climate related sub-projects interact with investigations on social networks, governance issues, buildings structure development and health outcome. Related to the later the chemical composition of PM is analyzed in more detail and related to the spatial patterns of health deficiencies. At a later stage City2020+ will propose new strategies based on cooperation from the fields of medicine, geography, sociology, history, civil engineering, and architecture for adapting the city for future needs. The Project CITY 2020+ is part of the interdisciplinary Project House HumTec (Human Sciences and Technology) at RWTH Aachen University funded by the Excellence Initiative of the German federal and state governments through the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation, DFG).

Demographics in Astronomy and Astrophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulvestad, James S.

2011-05-01

Astronomy has been undergoing a significant demographic shift over the last several decades, as shown by data presented in the 2000 National Research Council (NRC) report "Federal Funding of Astronomical Research," and the 2010 NRC report, "New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics." For example, the number of advertised postdoctoral positions in astronomy has increased much more rapldly than the number of faculty positions, contributing to a holding pattern of early-career astronomers in multiple postdoctoral positions. This talk will summarize some of the current demographic trends in astronomy, including information about gender and ethnic diversity, and describe some of the possible implications for the future. I thank the members of the Astro2010 Demographics Study Group, as well as numerous white-paper contributors to Astro2010, for providing data and analyses.

Hydrological sciences and water security: An overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, G.; Demuth, S.; Mishra, A.; Cudennec, C.

2015-04-01

This paper provides an introduction to the concepts of water security including not only the risks to human wellbeing posed by floods and droughts, but also the threats of inadequate supply of water in both quantity and quality for food production, human health, energy and industrial production, and for the natural ecosystems on which life depends. The overall setting is one of constant change in all aspects of Earth systems. Hydrological systems (processes and regimes) are changing, resulting from varying and changing precipitation and energy inputs, changes in surface covers, mining of groundwater resources, and storage and diversions by dams and infrastructures. Changes in social, political and economic conditions include population and demographic shifts, political realignments, changes in financial systems and in trade patterns. There is an urgent need to address hydrological and social changes simultaneously and in combination rather than as separate entities, and thus the need to develop the approach of `socio-hydrology'. All aspects of water security, including the responses of both UNESCO and the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) to the concepts of socio-hydrology, are examined in detailed papers within the volume titled Hydrological Sciences and Water Security: Past, Present and Future.

Geospatial Analysis of Climate-Related Changes in North American Arctic Ecosystems and Implications for Terrestrial Flora and Fauna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirazodi, S.; Griffin, R.

2016-12-01

Climate change induces range shifts among many terrestrial species in Arctic regions. At best, warming often forces poleward migration if a stable environment is to be maintained. At worst, marginal ecosystems may disappear entirely without a contiguous shift allowing migratory escape to similar environs. These changing migration patterns and poleward range expansion push species into higher latitudes where ecosystems are less stable and more sensitive to change. This project focuses on ecosystem geography and interspecies relationships and interactions by analyzing seasonality and changes over time in variables including the following: temperature, precipitation, vegetation, physical boundaries, population demographics, permafrost, sea ice, and food and water availability. Publicly available data from remote sensing platforms are used throughout, and processed with both commercially available and open sourced GIS tools. This analysis describes observed range changes for selected North American species, and attempts to provide insight into the causes and effects of these phenomena. As the responses to climate change are complex and varied, the goal is to produce the aforementioned results in an easily understood set of geospatial representations to better support decision making regarding conservation prioritization and enable adaptive responses and mitigation strategies.

Genome surfing as driver of microbial genomic diversity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Historical changes in population size, such as those caused by demographic range expansions, can produce nonadaptive changes in genomic diversity through mechanisms such as gene surfing. We propose that demographic range expansion of a microbial population capable of horizontal gene exchange can res...

Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study.

PubMed

Horn, Johannes; Damm, Oliver; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hengel, Hartmut; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Siedler, Anette; Ultsch, Bernhard; Weidemann, Felix; Wichmann, Ole; Karch, André; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2018-01-09

Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years. We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population. Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios. Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

Pre- and Post-displacement Stressors and Body Weight Development in Iraqi Refugees in Michigan.

PubMed

Jen, K-L Catherine; Zhou, Kequan; Arnetz, Bengt; Jamil, Hikmet

2015-10-01

Refugees have typically experienced stress and trauma before entering the US. Stressors and mental health disorders may contribute to obesity. The aim of this study was to investigate changes in the body mass index (BMI) in Iraqi refugees settled in Michigan in relationship to pre- and post-migration stressors and mental health. Anthropometric and demographic data were collected from 290 Iraqi refugees immediately after they arrived in Michigan and one year after settlement. Significant increases were observed in BMI (+0.46 ± 0.09 kg/m(2), p < 0.0001) and the percentage of refugees suffering from hypertension (from 9.6 to 13.1%, p < 0.05). Significant increases in stress, depression and acculturation, as well as decreases in post-migration trauma and social support, were also observed. Linear regression analyses failed to link stressors, well-being, and mental health to changes in BMI. It is likely that acculturation to a new lifestyle, including dietary patterns and physical activity levels, may have contributed to these changes.

The resilience of neighborhood social processes: A case study of the 2011 Brisbane flood.

PubMed

Wickes, Rebecca; Britt, Chester; Broidy, Lisa

2017-02-01

Social disorganization theories position neighborhood social capital and collective efficacy as key social processes that should facilitate community resilience in the aftermath of disaster. Yet limited evidence demonstrates that these social processes are themselves resilient with some studies showing that disaster can fracture even once cohesive neighborhoods. In this paper we assess the stability of neighborhood level collective efficacy and social capital before and after a disaster. We use multilevel structural equation modeling and draw on census and longitudinal survey data collected from over 4000 residents living in 148 neighborhoods in Brisbane, Australia before and after a significant flood event. We examine what happens to social capital and collective efficacy in flooded and non-flooded neighborhoods and assess whether demographic shifts are associated with change and/or stability in these processes. We find strong evidence that these processes operate similarly across flooded and not flooded communities. Our findings also reveal significant stability for our measures of social capital across time, while collective efficacy increases post flood across all neighborhoods, but more so in flooded neighborhoods. Neighborhood demographics have limited effect on patterns of stability or change in these social processes. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings for our understanding of neighborhood resilience in the wake of disaster. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reflections on societal change, adjustments, and responses.

PubMed

Friedlander, D; Okun, B

2009-04-01

Building on Davis (1963) and subsequent work, we propose a conceptual framework that provides a guide for the organization of empirical demographic research. Our approach is based on the notion that changes in nuptiality, fertility, and migration are not objectives in and of themselves, but means for reducing welfare gaps - defined as the gaps between actual welfare and that which could be attained with altered demographic and/or other behavior. We clarify theoretical issues concerning three levels of analysis. At the highest level, societal change leads to welfare gaps for families and/or individuals. In turn, behavioral adjustments are made to reduce these gaps. Finally, demographic responses at the community level result when large numbers of families and/or individuals adjust behavior in a particular manner. We consider and exemplify relationships among demographic and other responses in historical, agricultural contexts.

Comparative phylogeography and demographic history of the wood lemming (Myopus schisticolor): implications for late Quaternary history of the taiga species in Eurasia.

PubMed

Fedorov, V B; Goropashnaya, A V; Boeskorov, G G; Cook, J A

2008-01-01

The association between demographic history, genealogy and geographical distribution of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b haplotypes was studied in the wood lemming (Myopus schisticolor), a species that is closely associated with the boreal forest of the Eurasian taiga zone from Scandinavia to the Pacific coast. Except for a major phylogeographic discontinuity (0.9% nucleotide divergence) in southeastern Siberia, only shallow regional genetic structure was detected across northern Eurasia. Genetic signs of demographic expansions imply that successive range contractions and expansions on different spatial scales represented the primary historical events that shaped geographical patterns of genetic variation. Comparison of phylogeographic structure across a taxonomically diverse array of other species that are ecologically associated with the taiga forest revealed similar patterns and identified two general aspects. First, the major south-north phylogeographic discontinuity observed in five out of six species studied in southeastern Siberia and the Far East implies vicariant separation in two different refugial areas. The limited distribution range of the southeastern lineages provides no evidence of the importance of the putative southeastern refugial area for postglacial colonization of northern Eurasia by boreal forest species. Second, the lack of phylogeographic structure associated with significant reciprocal monophyly and genetic signatures of demographic expansion in all nine boreal forest animal species studied to date across most of northern Eurasia imply contraction of each species to a single refugial area during the late Pleistocene followed by range expansion on a continental scale. Similar phylogeographic patterns observed in this taxonomically diverse set of organisms with different life histories and dispersal potentials reflect the historical dynamics of their shared environment, the taiga forest in northern Eurasia.

Wanna know about vaping? Patterns of message exposure, seeking and sharing information about e-cigarettes across media platforms.

PubMed

Emery, Sherry L; Vera, Lisa; Huang, Jidong; Szczypka, Glen

2014-07-01

Awareness and use of electronic cigarettes has rapidly grown in the USA recently, in step with increased product marketing. Using responses to a population survey of US adults, we analysed demographic patterns of exposure to, searching for and sharing of e-cigarette-related information across media platforms. An online survey of 17,522 US adults was conducted in 2013. The nationally representative sample was drawn from GfK Group's KnowledgePanel plus off-panel recruitment. Fixed effects logit models were applied to analyse relationships between exposure to, searching for and sharing of e-cigarette-related information and demographic characteristics, e-cigarette and tobacco use, and media behaviours. High levels of awareness about e-cigarettes were indicated (86% aware; 47% heard through media channels). Exposure to e-cigarette-related information was associated with tobacco use, age, gender, more education, social media use and time spent online. Although relatively small proportions of the sample had searched for (∼5%) or shared (∼2%) e-cigarette information, our analyses indicated demographic patterns to those behaviours. Gender, high income and using social media were associated with searching for e-cigarette information; lesbian, gay and bisexual and less education were associated with sharing. Current tobacco use, age, being Hispanic and time spent online were associated with both searching and sharing. US adults are widely exposed to e-cigarette marketing through the media; such marketing may differentially target specific demographic groups. Further research should longitudinally examine how exposure to, searching for and sharing of e-cigarette information relate to subsequent use of e-cigarettes and/or combustible tobacco. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Wanna know about vaping? Patterns of message exposure, seeking and sharing information about e-cigarettes across media platforms

PubMed Central

Emery, Sherry L; Vera, Lisa; Huang, Jidong; Szczypka, Glen

2014-01-01

Background Awareness and use of electronic cigarettes has rapidly grown in the USA recently, in step with increased product marketing. Using responses to a population survey of US adults, we analysed demographic patterns of exposure to, searching for and sharing of e-cigarette-related information across media platforms. Methods An online survey of 17 522 US adults was conducted in 2013. The nationally representative sample was drawn from GfK Group's KnowledgePanel plus off-panel recruitment. Fixed effects logit models were applied to analyse relationships between exposure to, searching for and sharing of e-cigarette-related information and demographic characteristics, e-cigarette and tobacco use, and media behaviours. Results High levels of awareness about e-cigarettes were indicated (86% aware; 47% heard through media channels). Exposure to e-cigarette-related information was associated with tobacco use, age, gender, more education, social media use and time spent online. Although relatively small proportions of the sample had searched for (∼5%) or shared (∼2%) e-cigarette information, our analyses indicated demographic patterns to those behaviours. Gender, high income and using social media were associated with searching for e-cigarette information; lesbian, gay and bisexual and less education were associated with sharing. Current tobacco use, age, being Hispanic and time spent online were associated with both searching and sharing. Conclusions US adults are widely exposed to e-cigarette marketing through the media; such marketing may differentially target specific demographic groups. Further research should longitudinally examine how exposure to, searching for and sharing of e-cigarette information relate to subsequent use of e-cigarettes and/or combustible tobacco. PMID:24935893

Comparative demographics of a Hawaiian forest bird community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guillaumet, Alban; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Camp, Richard J.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimates of demographic parameters such as survival and reproductive success are critical for guiding management efforts focused on species of conservation concern. Unfortunately, reliable demographic parameters are difficult to obtain for any species, but especially for rare or endangered species. Here we derived estimates of adult survival and recruitment in a community of Hawaiian forest birds, including eight native species (of which three are endangered) and two introduced species at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawaiʻi. Integrated population models (IPM) were used to link mark–recapture data (1994–1999) with long-term population surveys (1987–2008). To our knowledge, this is the first time that IPM have been used to characterize demographic parameters of a whole avian community, and provides important insights into the life history strategies of the community. The demographic data were used to test two hypotheses: 1) arthropod specialists, such as the ‘Akiapōlā‘au Hemignathus munroi, are ‘slower’ species characterized by a greater relative contribution of adult survival to population growth, i.e. lower fecundity and increased adult survival; and 2) a species’ susceptibility to environmental change, as reflected by its conservation status, can be predicted by its life history traits. We found that all species were characterized by a similar population growth rate around one, independently of conservation status, origin (native vs non-native), feeding guild, or life history strategy (as measured by ‘slowness’), which suggested that the community had reached an equilibrium. However, such stable dynamics were achieved differently across feeding guilds, as demonstrated by a significant increase of adult survival and a significant decrease of recruitment along a gradient of increased insectivory, in support of hypothesis 1. Supporting our second hypothesis, we found that slower species were more vulnerable species at the global scale than faster ones. The possible causes and conservation implications of these patterns are discussed.

Genetic Signatures of Demographic Changes in an Avian Top Predator during the Last Century: Bottlenecks and Expansions of the Eurasian Eagle Owl in the Iberian Peninsula

PubMed Central

Graciá, Eva; Ortego, Joaquín; Godoy, José Antonio; Pérez-García, Juan Manuel; Blanco, Guillermo; del Mar Delgado, María; Penteriani, Vincenzo; Almodóvar, Irene; Botella, Francisco; Sánchez-Zapata, José Antonio

2015-01-01

The study of the demographic history of species can help to understand the negative impact of recent population declines in organisms of conservation concern. Here, we use neutral molecular markers to explore the genetic consequences of the recent population decline and posterior recovery of the Eurasian eagle owl (Bubo bubo) in the Iberian Peninsula. During the last century, the species was the object of extermination programs, suffering direct persecution by hunters until the 70’s. Moreover, during the last decades the eagle owl was severely impacted by increased mortality due to electrocution and the decline of its main prey species, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). In recent times, the decrease of direct persecution and the implementation of some conservation schemes have allowed the species’ demographic recovery. Yet, it remains unknown to which extent the past population decline and the later expansion have influenced the current species’ pattern of genetic diversity. We used eight microsatellite markers to genotype 235 eagle owls from ten Spanish subpopulations and analyse the presence of genetic signatures attributable to the recent population fluctuations experienced by the species. We found moderate levels of differentiation among the studied subpopulations and Bayesian analyses revealed the existence of three genetic clusters that grouped subpopulations from central, south-western and south-eastern Spain. The observed genetic structure could have resulted from recent human-induced population fragmentation, a patchy distribution of prey populations and/or the philopatric behaviour and habitat selection of the species. We detected an old population bottleneck, which occurred approximately 10,000 years ago, and significant signatures of recent demographic expansions. However, we did not find genetic signatures for a recent bottleneck, which may indicate that population declines were not severe enough to leave detectable signals on the species genetic makeup or that such signals have been eroded by the rapid demographic recovery experienced by the species in recent years. PMID:26230922

Climate and demography in early prehistory: using calibrated (14)C dates as population proxies.

PubMed

Riede, Felix

2009-04-01

Although difficult to estimate for prehistoric hunter-gatherer populations, demographic variables-population size, density, and the connectedness of demes-are critical for a better understanding of the processes of material culture change, especially in deep prehistory. Demography is the middle-range link between climatic changes and both biological and cultural evolutionary trajectories of human populations. Much of human material culture functions as a buffer against climatic changes, and the study of prehistoric population dynamics, estimated through changing frequencies of calibrated radiocarbon dates, therefore affords insights into how effectively such buffers operated and when they failed. In reviewing a number of case studies (Mesolithic Ireland, the origin of the Bromme culture, and the earliest late glacial human recolonization of southern Scandinavia), I suggest that a greater awareness of demographic processes, and in particular of demographic declines, provides many fresh insights into what structured the archaeological record. I argue that we cannot sideline climatic and environmental factors or extreme geophysical events in our reconstructions of prehistoric culture change. The implications of accepting demographic variability as a departure point for evaluating the archaeological record are discussed.

Spatial and temporal patterns of neutral and adaptive genetic variation in the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus).

PubMed

Marsden, Clare D; Woodroffe, Rosie; Mills, Michael G L; McNutt, J Weldon; Creel, Scott; Groom, Rosemary; Emmanuel, Masenga; Cleaveland, Sarah; Kat, Pieter; Rasmussen, Gregory S A; Ginsberg, Joshua; Lines, Robin; André, Jean-Marc; Begg, Colleen; Wayne, Robert K; Mable, Barbara K

2012-03-01

Deciphering patterns of genetic variation within a species is essential for understanding population structure, local adaptation and differences in diversity between populations. Whilst neutrally evolving genetic markers can be used to elucidate demographic processes and genetic structure, they are not subject to selection and therefore are not informative about patterns of adaptive variation. As such, assessments of pertinent adaptive loci, such as the immunity genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), are increasingly being incorporated into genetic studies. In this study, we combined neutral (microsatellite, mtDNA) and adaptive (MHC class II DLA-DRB1 locus) markers to elucidate the factors influencing patterns of genetic variation in the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus); an endangered canid that has suffered extensive declines in distribution and abundance. Our genetic analyses found all extant wild dog populations to be relatively small (N(e)  < 30). Furthermore, through coalescent modelling, we detected a genetic signature of a recent and substantial demographic decline, which correlates with human expansion, but contrasts with findings in some other African mammals. We found strong structuring of wild dog populations, indicating the negative influence of extensive habitat fragmentation and loss of gene flow between habitat patches. Across populations, we found that the spatial and temporal structure of microsatellite diversity and MHC diversity were correlated and strongly influenced by demographic stability and population size, indicating the effects of genetic drift in these small populations. Despite this correlation, we detected signatures of selection at the MHC, implying that selection has not been completely overwhelmed by genetic drift. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Phylogeography of Chinese cherry (Prunus pseudocerasus Lindl.) inferred from chloroplast and nuclear DNA: insights into evolutionary patterns and demographic history.

PubMed

Chen, T; Chen, Q; Luo, Y; Huang, Z-L; Zhang, J; Tang, H-R; Pan, D-M; Wang, X-R

2015-07-01

Chinese cherry (Prunus pseudocerasus Lindl.) is a commercially valuable fruit crop in China. In order to obtain new insights into its evolutionary history and provide valuable recommendations for resource conservation, phylogeographic patterns of 26 natural populations (305 total individuals) from six geographic regions were analyzed using chloroplast and nuclear DNA fragments. Low levels of haplotype and nucleotide diversity were found in these populations, especially in landrace populations. It is likely that a combined effect of botanical characteristics impact the effective population size, such as inbreeding mating system, long life span, as well as vegetative reproduction. In addition, strong bottleneck effect caused by domestication, together with founder effect after dispersal and subsequent demographic expansion, might also accelerate the reduction of the genetic variation in landrace populations. Interestingly, populations from Longmen Mountain (LMM) and Daliangshan Mountain (DLSM) exhibited relatively higher levels of genetic diversity, inferring the two historical genetic diversity centers of the species. Moreover, moderate population subdivision was also detected by both chloroplast DNA (GST = 0.215; NST = 0.256) and nuclear DNA (GST = 0.146; NST = 0.342), respectively. We inferred that the episodes of efficient gene flow through seed dispersal, together with features of long generation cycle and inbreeding mating system, were likely the main contributors causing the observed phylogeographic patterns. Finally, factors that led to the present demographic patterns of populations from these regions and taxonomic varieties were also discussed. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Gossypibomas, a surgeon's nightmare—patient demographics, risk factors, imaging and how we can prevent it

PubMed Central

Thomas, Binston; Basti, Ram S; Suresh, Hadihally B

2017-01-01

Objective: Gossypibomas are a cottonoid matrix left behind following surgery. Owing to the legal issues associated with it, very few literature studies are available online, most of them being case reports. The purpose of our study was to identify the patient demographics, risk factors and imaging features. Methods: Six surgically identified and histopathologically confirmed cases of gossypibomas recorded over a period of 5 years from a single tertiary institution were retrospectively evaluated for patient demographics [sex, age, body mass index (BMI)], type of surgery and duration from time of surgery to onset of symptoms. Ultrasound and CT images obtained from our hospital database were evaluated for their characteristic pattern. Statistics used included percentage and frequency. Results: Females formed the bulk of our patients and the mean BMI of our patients was 24.25. The interval between surgery and symptom presentation ranged from 2 months to 7 years. The most common imaging patterns observed on ultrasound and CT were a thick-walled hypoechoic lesion with a strong posterior acoustic shadowing and a “spongiform pattern”, respectively. Conclusion: A detailed patient history, taking into account radiologist—surgeon interaction, along with familiarization of the various risk factors and imaging patterns can bring about an accurate diagnosis of a gossypiboma. Advances in knowledge: Our study showed that the female sex, especially those undergoing gynaecology-related surgery such as hysterectomy and patients with a high BMI were at risk of gossypibomas. The combination of a hypoechoic lesion with strong posterior shadowing on ultrasound along with a spongiform pattern on CT was highly characteristic for gossypiboma on imaging. PMID:27885854

Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

2012-07-14

Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An aging society: opportunity or challenge?

PubMed

Cutler, D M; Poterba, J M; Sheiner, L M; Summers, L H

1990-01-01

"This paper steps back from the current political debate [in the United States] over the social security trust fund and examines the more general question of how serious a macroeconomic problem aging is and how policy should respond to it. We focus primarily on issues relating to saving and capital accumulation. We do not consider the broader question of whether the current U.S. national saving rate is too high or too low, but focus on the effect of demographic changes on the optimal level of national saving. In addition, we consider the effects of demographic change on productivity growth and the optimal timing of tax collections. Our general conclusion is that demographic changes will improve American standards of living in the near future, but lower them slightly over the very long term. Other things being equal, the optimal policy response to recent and anticipated demographic changes is almost certainly a reduction rather than an increase in the national saving rate." excerpt

Shaping nursing profession regulation through history - a systematic review.

PubMed

Stievano, A; Caruso, R; Pittella, F; Shaffer, F A; Rocco, G; Fairman, J

2018-03-23

The aim of this systematic review was to provide a critical synthesis of the factors that historically shaped the advancements of nursing regulators worldwide. An in-depth examination of the different factors that moulded regulatory changes over time is pivotal to comprehend current issues in nursing. In the light of global health scenarios, the researchers explored the factors that historically influenced the socio-contextual circumstances upon which governments made regulatory changes. A systematic search was performed on the following databases: PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, OpenGrey and ScienceDirect. The review included papers from January 2000 to October 2016 published in English. The authors used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and an inductive thematic approach for synthesis. Two main themes were identified: factors underpinning current challenges and historical and contextual triggers of regulation. The first theme was composed of three aspects: education, migration and internationalization, and policy and regulation; the second theme consisted of four attributes: demographics, economics, history of registration and wars, and historical changes in nursing practice. Factors that shaped nursing regulation were linked to changing demographics and economics, education, history of nursing registration, shifting patterns of migration and internationalization, nursing practice, policy and regulation and significant societal turns often prompted by wars. A deeper understanding of the developments of the nursing regulatory institutions provides the foundation for portable standards that can be applied across an array of jurisdictions to guarantee a better public safety. Understanding factors that socially, legislatively and politically have influenced the development of regulatory bodies over time helps to mould local, national and international policies that have a stronger impact on health worldwide. To achieve this, there must be effective cooperation among systems of nursing regulations globally. © 2018 International Council of Nurses.

FEMALE EDUCATION AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH CHANGES IN SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC BEHAVIOUR: EVIDENCE FROM INDIA.

PubMed

Borkotoky, Kakoli; Unisa, Sayeed

2015-09-01

Education is a crucial factor in influencing the pattern and timing of marriage for women, and the changes in levels of female literacy will also change the dynamics of family formation. India has experienced consistent improvement in levels of female literacy; therefore, this study examined the association of women's education with the changes in their demographic behaviour in the Indian context. The central idea of the paper is to examine the differences in age at marriage and first birth, choice of marriage partner and the number of children ever born based on educational attainment of women. In addition, the study examined incongruence in years of schooling and discontinuation from school, for children based on education of the mother. The study utilized data from the third round of District Level Household and Facility Survey. The sample constituted 344,164 ever-married women aged 35 years and above with surviving children aged 5-20 years. The results imply that women with higher education are more likely to marry late and have fewer children compared with less educated women. Accordingly, increase in education of women also increases the probability of marrying men with better education than themselves. The study further observed that education of wife has a greater association with the number of children ever born than the education of husband. At the same time, incongruence in years of schooling and drop-out from school are both high for children of uneducated women. The study also found that the children from urban areas are more likely to drop out than their rural counterparts. In addition to education of the mother, number and composition of children in the family and economic condition of the household are some other factors that influence the educational attainment of children.

Coevolution of patients and hospitals: how changing epidemiology and technological advances create challenges and drive organizational innovation.

PubMed

Lega, Federico; Calciolari, Stefano

2012-01-01

Over the last 20 years, hospitals have revised their organizational structures in response to new environmental pressures. Today, demographic and epidemiologic trends and recent technological advances call for new strategies to cope with ultra-elderly frail patients characterized by chronic conditions, high-severity health problems, and complex social situations. The main areas of change surround new ways of managing emerging clusters of patients whose needs are not efficiently or effectively met within traditional hospital organizations. Following the practitioner and academic literature, we first identify the most relevant clusters of new kinds of patients who represent an increasingly larger share of the hospital population in developed countries. Second, we propose a framework that synthesizes the major organizational innovations adopted by successful organizations around the world. We conclude by substantiating the trends of and the reasoning behind the prospective pattern of hospital organizational development.

Examining a shrinking rustbelt city: A case of Binghamton, NY (1990 - 2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Paul Sung-Pyo

Shrinking cities are locations that have experienced population and economic loss. Each shrinking city is unique in the influential characteristics that result in loss, however, patterns of the contemporary city is highly based on economic changes. The impact of shrinking cities is a global phenomenon not only limited to the U.S. or the developed world. However, among large shrinking cities of the world, 25% are located in the U.S. Therefore, it is of utter importance to understand and examine these locations. The connection of spectral findings of a shrinking "Rustbelt" city of Binghamton, NY using a multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN) mean of classification was made with spatial findings of demographic and socioeconomic status of the local population. This resulted in a high scale classification of urban ecozones, which created the boundaries for examining the changes in population size and the types of individuals associated with these populations.

Socio-demographic characteristics of New Zealand adult smokers, ex-smokers and non-smokers: results from the 2013 Census.

PubMed

Tu, Danny; Newcombe, Rhiannon; Edwards, Richard; Walton, Darren

2016-12-16

To describe the smoking prevalence by key socio-demographic characteristics (age, gender, ethnicity, education, labour status, income and socioeconomic deprivation) in New Zealand in 2013 and make comparisons with 2006. Data on cigarette smoking and key socio-demographics variables were obtained from the 2013 New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings. Age standardised smoking prevalence rates were calculated by gender, ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation using the WHO Population Standard. Results were compared against 2006 Census data to identify changes in smoking prevalence. In 2013, around one in seven (15.1%) of New Zealand adults aged 15 years and older reported that they were regular smokers (smoked one or more cigarettes per day), a 5.6% absolute decrease in the smoking prevalence since the previous Census in 2006. The number of regular adult smokers dropped from 597,792 in 2006 to 463,194 in 2013, a 22.5% decrease. Falls in smoking prevalence occurred among all demographic sub-groups, including Māori and young adults. There were substantial disparities in smoking by age, ethnicity and socio-economic status. Māori continue to have the highest age-standardised smoking prevalence (32.4%), with the highest prevalence (43.1%) among young Māori women aged 25 to 29 years. Decreases in smoking prevalence were greater between 2006 and 2013 than between 1996 and 2006. The findings suggest that the decline in smoking prevalence is accelerating in New Zealand, including among high priority groups like Māori, Pacific peoples and young adults. This study confirms the value of census data for understanding patterns of tobacco use in New Zealand, to inform effective intervention development and monitoring progress towards the Smokefree 2025 goal.

THE PHOENIX POPULATION: DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS AND REBOUND IN CAMBODIA*

PubMed Central

HEUVELINE, PATRICK; POCH, BUNNAK

2014-01-01

The study of mortality crises provides an unusual and valuable perspective on the relationship between mortality and fertility changes, a relationship that has puzzled demographers for decades. In this article, we combine nationally representative survey and demographic-surveillance system data to study fertility trends around the time of the Khmer Rouge (KR) regime, under which 25% of the Cambodian population died. We present the first quantitative evidence to date that attests to a one-third decline of fertility during this regime, followed by a substantial “baby boom” after the fall of the KR. Further analyses reveal that the fertility rebound was produced not only by a two-year marriage bubble but also by a surge in marital fertility that remained for nearly a decade above its precrisis level. Our results illustrate the potential influence of mortality on fertility, which may be more difficult to identify for more gradual mortality declines. To the extent that until recently, Cambodian fertility appears to fit natural fertility patterns, our findings also reinforce meaning of this core paradigm of demographic analysis. In July 1978, a youth named Korb, bound hand and foot, arrived at a Pol Pot regime extermination camp. The local security chief, “Comrade Uncle An,” was handed the following note: Formerly this person was normal in character. Then, over about ten days, he went crazy. […] If many people come in, first he begins to whistle, and then he sings the following rhyme out loud: O! Khmers with black blood Now the eight-year Buddhist prophecy is being fulfilled. Vietnam is the elder brother Kampuchea is the younger. If we do not follow the Vietnamese as our elder brothers There will be nothing left of the Khmer this time but ashes.(Kiernan and Boua 1982:363) PMID:17583312

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress-Insights from a System Dynamics-Individual-Based Hybrid Model.

PubMed

Vincenot, Christian E; Carteni, Fabrizio; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Rietkerk, Max; Giannino, Francesco

2016-01-01

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)-Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed.

Patterns of the Demographics, Clinical Characteristics, and Resource Utilization Among Maternal Decedents in Texas, 2001 - 2010: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Oud, Lavi

2015-12-01

Contemporary reporting of maternal mortality is focused on single, mutually exclusive causes of death among a minority of maternal decedents (pregnancy-related deaths), reflecting initial events leading to death. Although obstetric patients are susceptible to the lethal effects of downstream, more proximate contributors to death and to conditions not caused or precipitated by pregnancy, the burden of both categories and related patients' attributes is invisible to clinicians and healthcare policy makers with the current reporting system. Thus, the population-level demographics, clinical characteristics, and resource utilization associated with pregnancy-associated deaths in the United States have not been adequately characterized. We used the Texas Inpatient Public Use Data File to perform a population-based cohort study of the patterns of demographics, chronic comorbidity, occurrence of early maternal demise, potential contributors to maternal death, and resource utilization among maternal decedents in the state during 2001 - 2010. There were 557 maternal decedents during study period. Chronic comorbidity was reported in 45.2%. Most women (74.1%) were admitted to an ICU. Hemorrhage (27.8%), sepsis (23.5%), and cardiovascular conditions (22.6%) were the most commonly reported potential contributing conditions to maternal death, varying across categories of pregnancy-associated hospitalizations. More than one condition was reported in 39% of decedents. One in three women died during their first day of hospitalization, with no significant change over the past decade. The mean hospital length of stay was 7.9 days and total hospital charges were $250,000 or higher in 65 (11.7%) women. The findings of the high burden of chronic illness, patterns of occurrence of a broad array of potential contributing conditions to pregnancy-associated death, and the resource-intensive needs of a large contemporary population-based cohort of maternal decedents may better inform preventive and intervention measures at the bedside and as healthcare policy priorities. The prevalent and unchanged occurrence of rapid maternal demise following presentation for hospitalization supports a special focus on means to identify and effectively address front-line clinician- and healthcare system-related performance areas that can improve maternal outcomes. The common reporting of more than one potential contributing condition underscores the complexity of determination of causes of maternal death.

Spatial Self-Organization of Vegetation Subject to Climatic Stress—Insights from a System Dynamics—Individual-Based Hybrid Model

PubMed Central

Vincenot, Christian E.; Carteni, Fabrizio; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Rietkerk, Max; Giannino, Francesco

2016-01-01

In simulation models of populations or communities, individual plants have often been obfuscated in favor of aggregated vegetation. This simplification comes with a loss of biological detail and a smoothing out of the demographic noise engendered by stochastic individual-scale processes and heterogeneities, which is significant among others when studying the viability of small populations facing challenging fluctuating environmental conditions. This consideration has motivated the development of precise plant-centered models. The accuracy gained in the representation of plant biology has then, however, often been balanced by the disappearance in models of important plant-soil interactions (esp. water dynamics) due to the inability of most individual-based frameworks to simulate complex continuous processes. In this study, we used a hybrid modeling approach, namely integrated System Dynamics (SD)—Individual-based (IB), to illustrate the importance of individual plant dynamics to explain spatial self-organization of vegetation in arid environments. We analyzed the behavior of this model under different parameter sets either related to individual plant properties (such as seed dispersal distance and reproductive age) or the environment (such as intensity and yearly distribution of precipitation events). While the results of this work confirmed the prevailing theory on vegetation patterning, they also revealed the importance therein of plant-level processes that cannot be rendered by reaction-diffusion models. Initial spatial distribution of plants, reproductive age, and average seed dispersal distance, by impacting patch size and vegetation aggregation, affected pattern formation and population survival under climatic variations. Besides, changes in precipitation regime altered the demographic structure and spatial organization of vegetation patches by affecting plants differentially depending on their age and biomass. Water availability influenced non-linearly total biomass density. Remarkably, lower precipitation resulted in lower mean plant age yet higher mean individual biomass. Moreover, seasonal variations in rainfall greater than a threshold (here, ±0.45 mm from the 1.3 mm baseline) decreased mean total biomass and generated limit cycles, which, in the case of large variations, were preceded by chaotic demographic and spatial behavior. In some cases, peculiar spatial patterns (e.g., rings) were also engendered. On a technical note, the shortcomings of the present model and the benefit of hybrid modeling for virtual investigations in plant science are discussed. PMID:27252707

The Evolution of Mothers' Beliefs About Overweight and Obesity in Their Early School-Age Children.

PubMed

Pesch, Megan H; Meixner, Kaitlin A; Appugliese, Danielle P; Rosenblum, Katherine L; Miller, Alison L; Lumeng, Julie C

2016-08-01

To identify changes in maternal beliefs, concerns, and perspectives about overweight and obesity in their children over a 2-year period. A total of 37 low-income English-speaking mothers of overweight or obese children participated in 2 semistructured interviews, separated by about 2 years. Mean child age was 5.9 years at baseline and 8.2 years at follow-up. Mother and child anthropometric data were obtained, and mothers completed demographic questionnaires at both time points. Mothers' interviews were analyzed using the constant comparative method for longitudinal patterns of change in their perspectives on childhood obesity across the 2 time points. Six longitudinal patterns of change in mothers' perspectives and beliefs were identified: 1) mothers' identification of a weight problem in their child emerges gradually, 2) mothers' level of concern about their child overeating increases, 3) mothers' concerns about consequences of obesity intensify and change over time, 4) mothers feel less control over their child's eating and weight, 5) mothers' efforts to manage eating and weight become more intentional, and 6) mothers are more likely to initiate conversations about weight as their child gets older. Mothers' concerns about children's weight and eating habits increased, and reported weight management strategies became more intentional over a 2-year period. Further research should consider attending to maternal perspectives on child weight and eating and their evolution in the development of family-based interventions for childhood obesity. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The evolution of mothers’ beliefs about overweight and obesity in their early school age children

PubMed Central

Pesch, Megan H.; Meixner, Kaitlin A.; Appugliese, Danielle P.; Rosenblum, Katherine L.; Miller, Alison L; Lumeng, Julie C.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To identify changes in maternal beliefs, concerns and perspectives about overweight and obesity in their children over a two year period. METHODS A total of 37 low-income English speaking mothers of overweight or obese children participated in two semi-structured interviews, separated by about two years, (mean child age was 5.9 years at baseline and 8.2 years at follow-up). Mother and child anthropometrics were obtained and mothers completed demographic questionnaires at both time points. Mothers’ interviews were analyzed using the constant comparative method for longitudinal patterns of change in their perspectives on childhood obesity across the two time points. RESULTS Six longitudinal patterns of change in mothers’ perspectives and beliefs were identified: 1) mothers’ identification of a weight problem in their child emerges gradually, 2) mothers’ level of concern about their child overeating increases, 3) mothers’ concerns about consequences of obesity intensify and change over time, 4) mothers feel less control over their child’s eating and weight, 5) mothers’ efforts to manage eating and weight become more intentional and 6) mothers are more likely to initiate conversations about weight as their child gets older. CONCLUSIONS In this study, mothers’ concerns about children’s weight and eating habits increased and reported weight management strategies became more intentional over a two year period. Further research should consider attending to maternal perspectives on child weight and eating and their evolution in the development of family based interventions for childhood obesity. PMID:27045463

The Challenges of Change. A Report from the Aspen Institute Seminar on Hispanic Americans and the Business Community (Aspen, Colorado, July 27-30, 1997).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuire, Georgianna; Nicolau, Siobhan

This report from the 1997 Aspen Institute seminar concerns how demographic changes in American will affect Hispanic Americans' role in the business community. Section 1, "Lashes: Back, Front, and Sideways" (Harold Hodgkinson), describes pervasive national pessimism over demographic change and documents universal backlash to that change…

Predicted Hematologic and Plasma Volume Responses Following Rapid Ascent to Progressive Altitudes

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

of these changes, and define baseline demographics and physiologic descriptors that are important in predicting these changes. The overall impact of... physiologic descriptors that are important in predicting these changes. Using general linear mixed models and a comprehensive relational database...accomplished using a comprehensive relational database containing individual ascent profiles, demographics, and physiologic subject descriptors as well as