Spatial Exposure Analysis for Threatened and Endangered Species from Changing Pesticide Use Pattern in Southern Georgia

EPA Science Inventory

In recent decades, pesticide use patterns and crop distributions have changed; however, because there has not been a significant increase in usage disclosures, it is difficult to estimate the changes in potential exposure zones, this analysis focuses on the intersection of agricu...

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution range of the main silicate sinker of the Southern Ocean.

PubMed

Pinkernell, Stefan; Beszteri, Bánk

2014-08-01

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Macro-Climatic Distribution Limits Show Both Niche Expansion and Niche Specialization among C4 Panicoids.

PubMed

Aagesen, Lone; Biganzoli, Fernando; Bena, Julia; Godoy-Bürki, Ana C; Reinheimer, Renata; Zuloaga, Fernando O

2016-01-01

Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level.

Mapping the changing pattern of local climate as an observed distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

It is at local scales that the impacts of climate change will be felt directly and at which adaptation planning decisions must be made. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on the way observational data can be analysed to inform us about the pattern of local climate change. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs the pattern of variation in sensitivity with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify and map the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon.

PubMed

Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

2017-01-01

Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale-patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change-are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2016-01-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species’ suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr−1, about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr−1). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species’ distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-03-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution of mangroves in Moreton Bay, subtropical Australia: a comparison of pattern metrics and change detection analyses based on aerial photographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manson, F. J.; Loneragan, N. R.; Phinn, S. R.

2003-07-01

An assessment of the changes in the distribution and extent of mangroves within Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, was carried out. Two assessment methods were evaluated: spatial and temporal pattern metrics analysis, and change detection analysis. Currently, about 15,000 ha of mangroves are present in Moreton Bay. These mangroves are important ecosystems, but are subject to disturbance from a number of sources. Over the past 25 years, there has been a loss of more than 3800 ha, as a result of natural losses and mangrove clearing (e.g. for urban and industrial development, agriculture and aquaculture). However, areas of new mangroves have become established over the same time period, offsetting these losses to create a net loss of about 200 ha. These new mangroves have mainly appeared in the southern bay region and the bay islands, particularly on the landward edge of existing mangroves. In addition, spatial patterns and species composition of mangrove patches have changed. The pattern metrics analysis provided an overview of mangrove distribution and change in the form of single metric values, while the change detection analysis gave a more detailed and spatially explicit description of change. An analysis of the effects of spatial scales on the pattern metrics indicated that they were relatively insensitive to scale at spatial resolutions less than 50 m, but that most metrics became sensitive at coarser resolutions, a finding which has implications for mapping of mangroves based on remotely sensed data.

Seasonal changes in spatial patterns of two annual plants in the Chihuahuan Desert, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yin, Z.-Y.; Guo, Q.; Ren, H.; Peng, S.-L.

2005-01-01

Spatial pattern of a biotic population may change over time as its component individuals grow or die out, but whether this is the case for desert annual plants is largely unknown. Here we examined seasonal changes in spatial patterns of two annuals, Eriogonum abertianum and Haplopappus gracilis, in initial (winter) and final (summer) densities. The density was measured as the number of individuals from 384 permanent quadrats (each 0.5 m × 0.5 m) in the Chihuahuan Desert near Portal, Arizona, USA. We used three probability distributions (binomial, Poisson, and negative binomial or NB) that represent three basic spatial patterns (regular, random, and clumped) to fit the observed frequency distributions of densities of the two annuals. Both species showed clear clumped patterns as characterized by the NB and had similar inverse J-shaped frequency distribution curves in two density categories. Also, both species displayed a reduced degree of aggregation from winter to summer after the spring drought (massive die-off), as indicated by the increased k-parameter of the NB and decreased values of another NB parameter p, variance/mean ratio, Lloyd’s Index of Patchiness, and David and Moore’s Index of Clumping. Further, we hypothesized that while the NB (i.e., Poisson-logarithmic) well fits the distribution of individuals per quadrat, its components, the Poisson and logarithmic, may describe the distributions of clumps per quadrat and of individuals per clump, respectively. We thus obtained the means and variances for (1) individuals per quadrat, (2) clumps per quadrat, and (3) individuals per clump. The results showed that the decrease of the density from winter to summer for each plant resulted from the decrease of individuals per clump, rather than from the decrease of clumps per quadrat. The great similarities between the two annuals indicate that our observed temporal changes in spatial patterns may be common among desert annual plants.

Flight Investigation of the Cooling Characteristics of a Two-row Radial Engine Installation III : Engine Temperature Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rennak, Robert M; Messing, Wesley E; Morgan, James E

1946-01-01

The temperature distribution of a two-row radial engine in a twin-engine airplane has been investigated in a series of flight tests. The test engine was operated over a wide range of conditions at density altitudes of 5000 and 20,000 feet; quantitative results are presented showing the effects of flight and engine variables upon average engine temperature and over-all temperature spread. Discussions of the effect of the variables on the shape of the temperature patterns and on the temperature distribution of individual cylinders are also included. The results indicate that, for the tests conducted, the temperature distribution patterns were chiefly determined by the fuel-air ratio and cooling-air distributions. It was possible to calculate individual cylinder temperature, on the assumption of equal power distribution among cylinders, to within an average of plus or minus 14 degrees F. of the actual temperature. A considerable change occurred in either the spread or the thrust axis, the average engine fuel-air ratio, the engine speed, the power, or the blower ratio. Smaller effects on the temperature pattern were noticed with a change in cowl-flap opening and altitude. In most of the tests, a change in conditions affected the temperature of the barrels less than that of the heads. The variation of flight and engine variables had a negligible effect on the temperature distributions of the individual cylinders. (author)

A Data Centred Method to Estimate and Map Changes in the Full Distribution of Daily Precipitation and Its Exceedances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2014-12-01

Estimates of how our climate is changing are needed locally in order to inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles or thresholds in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. We develop a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes, to specifically address the challenges presented by 'heavy tailed' distributed variables such as daily precipitation. We extract from the data quantities that characterize the changes in time of the likelihood of daily precipitation above a threshold and of the relative amount of precipitation in those extreme precipitation days. Our method is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of precipitation distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily precipitation from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. We treat geographical location and precipitation as independent variables and thus obtain as outputs the pattern of change at a given threshold of precipitation and with geographical location. This is model- independent, thus providing data of direct value in model calibration and assessment. Our results identify regionally consistent patterns which, dependent on location, show systematic increase in precipitation on the wettest days, shifts in precipitation patterns to less moderate days and more heavy days, and drying across all days which is of potential value in adaptation planning. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287; D. A. Stainforth, S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [2] Haylock et al. 2008 J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo

2017-01-01

Background Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species. PMID:29023503

MONITORING CHANGES IN STRESSED ECOSYSTEMS USING SPATIAL PATTERNS OF ANT COMMUNITIES

EPA Science Inventory

We examined the feasibility of using changes in spatial patterns of ants-distribution on experimental plots as an indicator of response to environmental stress. We produced contour maps based on relative abundances of the three most common genera of ants based on pit-fall trap ca...

A data centred method to estimate and map how the local distribution of daily precipitation is changing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nick

2014-05-01

Estimates of how our climate is changing are needed locally in order to inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on a method to transform daily observations of precipitation into patterns of local climate change. We develop a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust changes, to specifically address the challenges presented by daily precipitation data. We extract from the data quantities that characterize the changes in time of the likelihood of daily precipitation above a threshold and of the relative amount of precipitation in those days. Our method is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of precipitation distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily precipitation from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. We treat geographical location and precipitation as independent variables and thus obtain as outputs the pattern of change at a given threshold of precipitation and with geographical location. This is model- independent, thus providing data of direct value in model calibration and assessment. Our results show regionally consistent patterns of systematic increase in precipitation on the wettest days, and of drying across all days which is of potential value in adaptation planning. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371 20120287; D. A. Stainforth, 2013, S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034031 [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119

Feminization of the fat distribution pattern of children and adolescents in a recent German population.

PubMed

Scheffler, Christiane; Dammhahn, Melanie

2017-09-10

During the early 1990s, the economic and political situation in eastern Germany changed overnight. Here, we use the rare chance of an experiment-like setting in humans and aim to test whether the rapid change of environmental conditions in eastern Germany in the 1990s led to a change in the sex-specific fat distribution pattern, an endocrine-influenced phenotypic marker. Based on a cross-sectional data set of 6- to 18-year-old girls and boys measured between 1982-1991 and 1997-2012, we calculated a skinfold ratio of triceps to subscapular and percentage of body fat. Using linear regressions, we tested for differences in percentage of body fat and skinfold ratio between these two time periods. We found that the percentage of body fat increased in boys and girls, and they accumulated relatively more fat on extremities than on the trunk in all BMI groups measured after 1997 as compared to those measured between 1982 and 1991. Concurrent with drastic and rapid changes of environmental conditions, the body fat distribution of children and adolescents changed to a more feminized pattern during the early 1990s in an East German population. The changes in this endocrinologically mediated pattern might be associated with the increased exposure of individuals to endocrine-disrupting chemicals which are known to influence the endocrine, reproductive, and immune systems in animals and humans. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predicting the distributions of Egypt's medicinal plants and their potential shifts under future climate change.

PubMed

Kaky, Emad; Gilbert, Francis

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most difficult of challenges to conserving biodiversity, especially for countries with few data on the distributions of their taxa. Species distribution modelling is a modern approach to the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, with the great advantage of being robust to small amounts of data. Taking advantage of a recently validated dataset, we use the medicinal plants of Egypt to identify hotspots of diversity now and in the future by predicting the effect of climate change on the pattern of species richness using species distribution modelling. Then we assess how Egypt's current Protected Area network is likely to perform in protecting plants under climate change. The patterns of species richness show that in most cases the A2a 'business as usual' scenario was more harmful than the B2a 'moderate mitigation' scenario. Predicted species richness inside Protected Areas was higher than outside under all scenarios, indicating that Egypt's PAs are well placed to help conserve medicinal plants.

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

Apparatus for detecting and recognizing analytes based on their crystallization patterns

DOEpatents

Morozov, Victor; Bailey, Charles L.; Vsevolodov, Nikolai N.; Elliott, Adam

2010-12-14

The invention contemplates apparatuses for recognition of proteins and other biological molecules by imaging morphology, size and distribution of crystalline and amorphous dry residues in droplets (further referred to as "crystallization patterns") containing predetermined amount of certain crystal-forming organic compounds (reporters) to which protein to be analyzed is added. Changes in the crystallization patterns of a number of amino-acids can be used as a "signature" of a protein added. Also, changes in the crystallization patterns, as well as the character of such changes, can be used as recognition elements in analysis of protein molecules.

[Land use pattern and its dynamic changes in Amur tiger distribution region].

PubMed

Li, Zhong-wen; Wu, Jian-guo; Kou, Xiao-jun; Tian, Yu; Wang, Tian-ming; Mu, Pu; Ge, Jian-ping

2009-03-01

Land use and land cover change has been the primary cause for the habitat loss and fragmentation in the distribution region of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica). Based on the spatiotemporal changes of land use and land cover in the distribution region, as well as their effects on the population dynamics of Amur tiger, this paper analyzed the development process and its characteristics of the main land use types (agricultural land, forest land, and construction land) in this region, with the land use change history being divided chronically into three distinctive periods, i.e., ancient times (prior to 1860), modern times (1860-1949), and contemporary times (after 1949). The results showed that the sporadic land use in ancient times had no significant effects on the survival of Amur tiger, while the extensive and intensive land use after the 1860s was mainly responsible for the decrease of Amur tiger population and its living space. Since 1949, the Amur tiger distribution region has been divided into two parts, i.e., Northeast China and Russia Far East. The differences in land use pattern, policy, and intensity between these two parts led to different survival status of Amur tiger. The key driving forces for the land use change in Amur tiger distribution region were human population increase, policy change, and increased productivity.

Analysis of Stomata Distribution Patterns for Quantification of the Foliar Plasticity of Tradescantia Zebrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batista Florindo, Joao; Landini, Gabriel; Almeida Filho, Humberto; Martinez Bruno, Odemir

2015-09-01

Here we propose a method for the analysis of the stomata distribution patterns on the surface of plant leaves. We also investigate how light exposure during growth can affect stomata distribution and the plasticity of leaves. Understanding foliar plasticity (the ability of leaves to modify their structural organization to adapt to changing environmental resources) is a fundamental problem in Agricultural and Environmental Sciences. Most published work on quantification of stomata has concentrated on descriptions of their density per unit of leaf area, however density alone does not provide a complete description of the problem and leaves several unanswered questions (e.g. whether the stomata patterns change across various areas of the leaf, or how the patterns change under varying observational scales). We used two approaches here, to know, multiscale fractal dimension and complex networks, as a means to provide a description of the complexity of these distributions. In the experiments, we used 18 samples from the plant Tradescantia Zebrina grown under three different conditions (4 hours of artificial light each day, 24 hours of artificial light each day, and sunlight) for a total of 69 days. The network descriptors were capable of correctly discriminating the different conditions in 88% of cases, while the fractal descriptors discriminated 83% of the samples. This is a significant improvement over the correct classification rates achieved when using only stomata density (56% of the samples).

The Impact of Service Sector Growth on Changing Patterns of Stratification among Communities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kassab, Cathy

This paper examines the impact of increasing service sector employment and decreasing manufacturing employment on the distribution of income across communities on the urban-rural continuum. Changes in the differential distribution of industries and family income across this continuum have important consequences for local services, including…

Inhomogeneity Based Characterization of Distribution Patterns on the Plasma Membrane

PubMed Central

Paparelli, Laura; Corthout, Nikky; Wakefield, Devin L.; Sannerud, Ragna; Jovanovic-Talisman, Tijana; Annaert, Wim; Munck, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Cell surface protein and lipid molecules are organized in various patterns: randomly, along gradients, or clustered when segregated into discrete micro- and nano-domains. Their distribution is tightly coupled to events such as polarization, endocytosis, and intracellular signaling, but challenging to quantify using traditional techniques. Here we present a novel approach to quantify the distribution of plasma membrane proteins and lipids. This approach describes spatial patterns in degrees of inhomogeneity and incorporates an intensity-based correction to analyze images with a wide range of resolutions; we have termed it Quantitative Analysis of the Spatial distributions in Images using Mosaic segmentation and Dual parameter Optimization in Histograms (QuASIMoDOH). We tested its applicability using simulated microscopy images and images acquired by widefield microscopy, total internal reflection microscopy, structured illumination microscopy, and photoactivated localization microscopy. We validated QuASIMoDOH, successfully quantifying the distribution of protein and lipid molecules detected with several labeling techniques, in different cell model systems. We also used this method to characterize the reorganization of cell surface lipids in response to disrupted endosomal trafficking and to detect dynamic changes in the global and local organization of epidermal growth factor receptors across the cell surface. Our findings demonstrate that QuASIMoDOH can be used to assess protein and lipid patterns, quantifying distribution changes and spatial reorganization at the cell surface. An ImageJ/Fiji plugin of this analysis tool is provided. PMID:27603951

Optimal joule heating of the subsurface

DOEpatents

Berryman, James G.; Daily, William D.

1994-01-01

A method for simultaneously heating the subsurface and imaging the effects of the heating. This method combines the use of tomographic imaging (electrical resistance tomography or ERT) to image electrical resistivity distribution underground, with joule heating by electrical currents injected in the ground. A potential distribution is established on a series of buried electrodes resulting in energy deposition underground which is a function of the resistivity and injection current density. Measurement of the voltages and currents also permits a tomographic reconstruction of the resistivity distribution. Using this tomographic information, the current injection pattern on the driving electrodes can be adjusted to change the current density distribution and thus optimize the heating. As the heating changes conditions, the applied current pattern can be repeatedly adjusted (based on updated resistivity tomographs) to affect real time control of the heating.

Holocene Changes in the Distribution and Abundance of Oaks in California

Treesearch

Roger Byrne; Eric Edlund; Scott Mensing

1991-01-01

Our knowledge of the long-term history of oaks is primarily based on biogeographical analysis of anomalous distribution patterns and paleobotanical macrofossil evidence. Neither of these provide a continuous record of change. In this paper, we present fossil pollen evidence which records significant changes in oak abundance over the last 10,000 years. Between 10,000-5,...

Changing Patterns of Human Anthrax in Azerbaijan during the Post-Soviet and Preemptive Livestock Vaccination Eras

PubMed Central

Kracalik, Ian; Abdullayev, Rakif; Asadov, Kliment; Ismayilova, Rita; Baghirova, Mehriban; Ustun, Narmin; Shikhiyev, Mazahir; Talibzade, Aydin; Blackburn, Jason K.

2014-01-01

We assessed spatial and temporal changes in the occurrence of human anthrax in Azerbaijan during 1984 through 2010. Data on livestock outbreaks, vaccination efforts, and human anthrax incidence during Soviet governance, post-Soviet governance, preemptive livestock vaccination were analyzed. To evaluate changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of anthrax, we used a combination of spatial analysis, cluster detection, and weighted least squares segmented regression. Results indicated an annual percent change in incidence of +11.95% from 1984 to 1995 followed by declining rate of −35.24% after the initiation of livestock vaccination in 1996. Our findings also revealed geographic variation in the spatial distribution of reporting; cases were primarily concentrated in the west early in the study period and shifted eastward as time progressed. Over twenty years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the distribution of human anthrax in Azerbaijan has undergone marked changes. Despite decreases in the incidence of human anthrax, continued control measures in livestock are needed to mitigate its occurrence. The shifting patterns of human anthrax highlight the need for an integrated “One Health” approach that takes into account the changing geographic distribution of the disease. PMID:25032701

Clustering of change patterns using Fourier coefficients.

PubMed

Kim, Jaehee; Kim, Haseong

2008-01-15

To understand the behavior of genes, it is important to explore how the patterns of gene expression change over a time period because biologically related gene groups can share the same change patterns. Many clustering algorithms have been proposed to group observation data. However, because of the complexity of the underlying functions there have not been many studies on grouping data based on change patterns. In this study, the problem of finding similar change patterns is induced to clustering with the derivative Fourier coefficients. The sample Fourier coefficients not only provide information about the underlying functions, but also reduce the dimension. In addition, as their limiting distribution is a multivariate normal, a model-based clustering method incorporating statistical properties would be appropriate. This work is aimed at discovering gene groups with similar change patterns that share similar biological properties. We developed a statistical model using derivative Fourier coefficients to identify similar change patterns of gene expression. We used a model-based method to cluster the Fourier series estimation of derivatives. The model-based method is advantageous over other methods in our proposed model because the sample Fourier coefficients asymptotically follow the multivariate normal distribution. Change patterns are automatically estimated with the Fourier representation in our model. Our model was tested in simulations and on real gene data sets. The simulation results showed that the model-based clustering method with the sample Fourier coefficients has a lower clustering error rate than K-means clustering. Even when the number of repeated time points was small, the same results were obtained. We also applied our model to cluster change patterns of yeast cell cycle microarray expression data with alpha-factor synchronization. It showed that, as the method clusters with the probability-neighboring data, the model-based clustering with our proposed model yielded biologically interpretable results. We expect that our proposed Fourier analysis with suitably chosen smoothing parameters could serve as a useful tool in classifying genes and interpreting possible biological change patterns. The R program is available upon the request.

Increasing sea surface temperature and range shifts of intertidal gastropods along the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubal, Marcos; Veiga, Puri; Cacabelos, Eva; Moreira, Juan; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel

2013-03-01

There are well-documented changes in abundance and geographical range of intertidal invertebrates related to climate change at north Europe. However, the effect of sea surface warming on intertidal invertebrates has been poorly studied at lower latitudes. Here we analyze potential changes in the abundance patterns and distribution range of rocky intertidal gastropods related to climate change along the Iberian Peninsula. To achieve this aim, the spatial distribution and range of sub-tropical, warm- and cold-water species of intertidal gastropods was explored by a fully hierarchical sampling design considering four different spatial scales, i.e. from region (100 s of km apart) to quadrats (ms apart). Variability on their patterns of abundance was explored by analysis of variance, changes on their distribution ranges were detected by comparing with previous records and their relationship with sea water temperature was explored by rank correlation analyses. Mean values of sea surface temperature along the Iberian coast, between 1949 and 2010, were obtained from in situ data compiled for three different grid squares: south Portugal, north Portugal, and Galicia. Lusitanian species did not show significant correlation with sea water temperature or changes on their distributional range or abundance, along the temperature gradient considered. The sub-tropical species Siphonaria pectinata has, however, increased its distribution range while boreal cold-water species showed the opposite pattern. The latter was more evident for Littorina littorea that was almost absent from the studied rocky shores of the Iberian Peninsula. Sub-tropical and boreal species showed significant but opposite correlation with sea water temperature. We hypothesized that the energetic cost of frequent exposures to sub-lethal temperatures might be responsible for these shifts. Therefore, intertidal gastropods at the Atlantic Iberian Peninsula coast are responding to the effect of global warming as it is happening at higher latitudes. However, the identity of the species showing changes in their range of distribution was different.

Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change

Treesearch

Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters

2011-01-01

Mounting evidence shows that organisms have already begun to respond to global climate change. Advances in our knowledge of how climate shapes species distributional patterns has helped us better understand the response of birds to climate change. However, the distribution of birds across the landscape is also driven by biotic and abiotic components, including habitat...

[Relation between species distribution of plant community and soil factors under grazing in alpine meadow].

PubMed

Niu, Yu Jie; Yang, Si Wei; Wang, Gui Zhen; Liu, Li; Du, Guo Zhen; Hua, Li Min

2017-12-01

The research selected the alpine meadow located in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the changes of vegetation community and soil properties under different grazing intensities, as well as the quantitative relation between the distribution patterns of plant species and the physical and chemical properties of soil. The results showed that the grazing caused the differentiation of the initial vegetation community with the dominant plants, Elymus nutans and Stipa grandis. In the plots with high and low grazing intensities, the dominant plants had changed to Kobresia humilis and Melissitus ruthenica, and E. nutans and Poa crymophila, respectively. With the increase of grazing intensity, the plant richness, importance value and biomass were significantly decreased. The sequence of plant species importance value in each plot against grazing intensity could be fitted by a logarithmic model. The number of required plant species was reduced while the importance value of the remaining plant species accounted for 50% of the importance value in the whole vegetation community. The available P, available K, soil compaction, soil water content, stable infiltration rate and large aggregate index were significantly changed with grazing intensity, however, the changes were different. The CCA ordination showed that the soil compaction was the key factor affecting the distribution pattern of the plant species under grazing. The variance decomposition indicated that the soil factors together explained 30.5% of the distribution of the plant species, in particular the soil physical properties alone explained 22.8% of the distribution of the plant species, which had the highest rate of contribution to the plant species distribution. The soil physical properties affected the distribution pattern of plant species on grazed alpine meadow.

Change Semantic Constrained Online Data Cleaning Method for Real-Time Observational Data Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yulin; Lin, Hui; Li, Rongrong

2016-06-01

Recent breakthroughs in sensor networks have made it possible to collect and assemble increasing amounts of real-time observational data by observing dynamic phenomena at previously impossible time and space scales. Real-time observational data streams present potentially profound opportunities for real-time applications in disaster mitigation and emergency response, by providing accurate and timeliness estimates of environment's status. However, the data are always subject to inevitable anomalies (including errors and anomalous changes/events) caused by various effects produced by the environment they are monitoring. The "big but dirty" real-time observational data streams can rarely achieve their full potential in the following real-time models or applications due to the low data quality. Therefore, timely and meaningful online data cleaning is a necessary pre-requisite step to ensure the quality, reliability, and timeliness of the real-time observational data. In general, a straightforward streaming data cleaning approach, is to define various types of models/classifiers representing normal behavior of sensor data streams and then declare any deviation from this model as normal or erroneous data. The effectiveness of these models is affected by dynamic changes of deployed environments. Due to the changing nature of the complicated process being observed, real-time observational data is characterized by diversity and dynamic, showing a typical Big (Geo) Data characters. Dynamics and diversity is not only reflected in the data values, but also reflected in the complicated changing patterns of the data distributions. This means the pattern of the real-time observational data distribution is not stationary or static but changing and dynamic. After the data pattern changed, it is necessary to adapt the model over time to cope with the changing patterns of real-time data streams. Otherwise, the model will not fit the following observational data streams, which may led to large estimation error. In order to achieve the best generalization error, it is an important challenge for the data cleaning methodology to be able to characterize the behavior of data stream distributions and adaptively update a model to include new information and remove old information. However, the complicated data changing property invalidates traditional data cleaning methods, which rely on the assumption of a stationary data distribution, and drives the need for more dynamic and adaptive online data cleaning methods. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper presents a change semantics constrained online filtering method for real-time observational data. Based on the principle that the filter parameter should vary in accordance to the data change patterns, this paper embeds semantic description, which quantitatively depicts the change patterns in the data distribution to self-adapt the filter parameter automatically. Real-time observational water level data streams of different precipitation scenarios are selected for testing. Experimental results prove that by means of this method, more accurate and reliable water level information can be available, which is prior to scientific and prompt flood assessment and decision-making.

Integrating satellite actual evapotranspiration patterns into distributed model parametrization and evaluation for a mesoscale catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, M. C.; Mai, J.; Stisen, S.; Mendiguren González, G.; Koch, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

2016-12-01

Distributed hydrologic models are traditionally calibrated and evaluated against observations of streamflow. Spatially distributed remote sensing observations offer a great opportunity to enhance spatial model calibration schemes. For that it is important to identify the model parameters that can change spatial patterns before the satellite based hydrologic model calibration. Our study is based on two main pillars: first we use spatial sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters controlling the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET). Second, we investigate the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). This distributed model is selected as it allows for a change in the spatial distribution of key soil parameters through the calibration of pedo-transfer function parameters and includes options for using fully distributed daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) directly as input. In addition the simulated AET can be estimated at the spatial resolution suitable for comparison to the spatial patterns observed using MODIS data. We introduce a new dynamic scaling function employing remotely sensed vegetation to downscale coarse reference evapotranspiration. In total, 17 parameters of 47 mHM parameters are identified using both sequential screening and Latin hypercube one-at-a-time sampling methods. The spatial patterns are found to be sensitive to the vegetation parameters whereas streamflow dynamics are sensitive to the PTF parameters. The results of multi-objective model calibration show that calibration of mHM against observed streamflow does not reduce the spatial errors in AET while they improve only the streamflow simulations. We will further examine the results of model calibration using only multi spatial objective functions measuring the association between observed AET and simulated AET maps and another case including spatial and streamflow metrics together.

Nonlinear optical coupler using a doped optical waveguide

DOEpatents

Pantell, Richard H.; Sadowski, Robert W.; Digonnet, Michel J. F.; Shaw, Herbert J.

1994-01-01

An optical mode coupling apparatus includes an Erbium-doped optical waveguide in which an optical signal at a signal wavelength propagates in a first spatial propagation mode and a second spatial propagation mode of the waveguide. The optical signal propagating in the waveguide has a beat length. The coupling apparatus includes a pump source of perturbational light signal at a perturbational wavelength that propagates in the waveguide in the first spatial propagation mode. The perturbational signal has a sufficient intensity distribution in the waveguide that it causes a perturbation of the effective refractive index of the first spatial propagation mode of the waveguide in accordance with the optical Kerr effect. The perturbation of the effective refractive index of the first spatial propagation mode of the optical waveguide causes a change in the differential phase delay in the optical signal propagating in the first and second spatial propagation modes. The change in the differential phase delay is detected as a change in the intensity distribution between two lobes of the optical intensity distribution pattern of an output signal. The perturbational light signal can be selectively enabled and disabled to selectively change the intensity distribution in the two lobes of the optical intensity distribution pattern.

Effect of population growth on changes in the agrarian structure of rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Chaudhury, R H

1981-01-01

The author examines available information on the effect of population growth on the agrarian structure of Bangladesh. Trends and patterns of land distribution over time are reviewed. The effects of changes in land distribution on productivity are investigated, and the relationship between family size and land ownership is analyzed.

Walrus distributional and foraging response to changing ice and benthic conditions in the Chukchi Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jay, Chadwick V.; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Fischbach, Anthony S.

2012-01-01

Arctic species such as the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are facing a rapidly changing environment. Walruses are benthic foragers and may shift their spatial patterns of foraging in response to changes in prey distribution. We used data from satellite radio-tags attached to walruses in 2009-2010 to map walrus foraging locations with concurrent sampling of benthic infauna to examine relationships between distributions of dominant walrus prey and spatial patterns of walrus foraging. Walrus foraging was concentrated offshore in the NE Chukchi Sea, and coastal areas of northwestern Alaska when sea ice was sparse. Walrus foraging areas in August-September were coincident with the biomass of two dominant bivalve taxa (Tellinidae and Nuculidae) and sipunculid worms. Walrusforaging costs associated with increased travel time to higher biomass food patches from land may be significantly higher than the costs from sea ice haul-outs and result in reduced energy storesin walruses. Identifying what resources are selected by walruses and how those resources are distributed in space and time will improve our ability to forecast how walruses might respond to a changing climate.

Change without Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naro, Anthony; Gorski, Edair; Fernandes, Eulalia

1999-01-01

Discusses a shift in the distribution of first person plural pronouns, as well as changes in the patterns of use of the corresponding verb inflections, in spoken Brazilian Portuguese across four generations of speakers from Rio de Janeiro. (Author/VWL)

Modeling distributional changes in winter precipitation of Canada using Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression subjected to different teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Chen, Shu; Liu, Bingjun

2018-05-01

Climate change and large-scale climate patterns may result in changes in probability distributions of climate variables that are associated with changes in the mean and variability, and severity of extreme climate events. In this paper, we applied a flexible framework based on the Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile (BSTQR) model to identify climate changes at different quantile levels and their teleconnections to large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA). Using the BSTQR model with time (year) as a covariate, we estimated changes in Canadian winter precipitation and their uncertainties at different quantile levels. There were some stations in eastern Canada showing distributional changes in winter precipitation such as an increase in low quantiles but a decrease in high quantiles. Because quantile functions in the BSTQR model vary with space and time and assimilate spatiotemporal precipitation data, the BSTQR model produced much spatially smoother and less uncertain quantile changes than the classic regression without considering spatiotemporal correlations. Using the BSTQR model with five teleconnection indices (i.e., SOI, PDO, PNA, NP and NAO) as covariates, we investigated effects of large-scale climate patterns on Canadian winter precipitation at different quantile levels. Winter precipitation responses to these five teleconnections were found to occur differently at different quantile levels. Effects of five teleconnections on Canadian winter precipitation were stronger at low and high than at medium quantile levels.

Optimal joule heating of the subsurface

DOEpatents

Berryman, J.G.; Daily, W.D.

1994-07-05

A method for simultaneously heating the subsurface and imaging the effects of the heating is disclosed. This method combines the use of tomographic imaging (electrical resistance tomography or ERT) to image electrical resistivity distribution underground, with joule heating by electrical currents injected in the ground. A potential distribution is established on a series of buried electrodes resulting in energy deposition underground which is a function of the resistivity and injection current density. Measurement of the voltages and currents also permits a tomographic reconstruction of the resistivity distribution. Using this tomographic information, the current injection pattern on the driving electrodes can be adjusted to change the current density distribution and thus optimize the heating. As the heating changes conditions, the applied current pattern can be repeatedly adjusted (based on updated resistivity tomographs) to affect real time control of the heating.

Spatial and temporal statistical analysis of bycatch data: Patterns of sea turtle bycatch in the North Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Sullivan, P.J.; Morreale, S.J.; Epperly, S.P.

2008-01-01

Loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtle distributions and movements in offshore waters of the western North Atlantic are not well understood despite continued efforts to monitor, survey, and observe them. Loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles are listed as endangered by the World Conservation Union, and thus anthropogenic mortality of these species, including fishing, is of elevated interest. This study quantifies spatial and temporal patterns of sea turtle bycatch distributions to identify potential processes influencing their locations. A Ripley's K function analysis was employed on the NOAA Fisheries Atlantic Pelagic Longline Observer Program data to determine spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal patterns of sea turtle bycatch distributions within the pattern of the pelagic fishery distribution. Results indicate that loggerhead and leatherback sea turtle catch distributions change seasonally, with patterns of spatial clustering appearing from July through October. The results from the space-time analysis indicate that sea turtle catch distributions are related on a relatively fine scale (30-200 km and 1-5 days). The use of spatial and temporal point pattern analysis, particularly K function analysis, is a novel way to examine bycatch data and can be used to inform fishing practices such that fishing could still occur while minimizing sea turtle bycatch. ?? 2008 NRC.

Spatial pattern of reference evapotranspiration change and its temporal evolution over Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shanlei; Wang, Guojie; Huang, Jin; Mu, Mengyuan; Yan, Guixia; Liu, Chunwei; Gao, Chujie; Li, Xing; Yin, Yixing; Zhang, Fangmin; Zhu, Siguang; Hua, Wenjian

2017-11-01

Due to the close relationship of climate change with reference evapotranspiration (ETo), detecting changes in ETo spatial distribution and its temporal evolution at local and regional levels is favorable to comprehensively understand climate change-induced impacts on hydrology and agriculture. In this study, the objective is to identify whether climate change has caused variation of ETo spatial distribution in different analysis periods [i.e., long- (20-year), medium- (10-year), and short-term (5-year)] and to investigate its temporal evolution (namely, when these changes happened) at annual and monthly scales in Southwest China (SWC). First, we estimated ETo values using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation, based on historical climate data measured at 269 weather sites during 1973-2012. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) results indicated that the spatial pattern of annual ETo had significantly changed during the past 40 years, particularly in west SWC for the long-term analysis period, and west and southeast SWC in both medium- and short-term periods, which corresponded to the percent area of significant differences which were 21.9, 58.0, and 48.2 %, respectively. For investigating temporal evolution of spatial patterns of annual ETo, Duncan's multiple range test was used, and we found that the most significant changes appeared during 1988-2002 with the significant area of higher than 25.0 %. In addition, for long-, medium-, and short-term analysis periods, the spatial distribution has significantly changed during March, September, November, and December, especially in the corresponding periods of 1988-1997, 1983-1992, 1973-1977, and 1988-2002. All in all, climate change has resulted in significant ETo changes in SWC since the 1970s. Knowledge of climate change-induced spatial distribution of ETo and its temporal evolution would aid in formulating strategies for water resources and agricultural managements.

Experimental evaluation of dynamic data allocation strategies in a distributed database with changing workloads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brunstrom, Anna; Leutenegger, Scott T.; Simha, Rahul

1995-01-01

Traditionally, allocation of data in distributed database management systems has been determined by off-line analysis and optimization. This technique works well for static database access patterns, but is often inadequate for frequently changing workloads. In this paper we address how to dynamically reallocate data for partionable distributed databases with changing access patterns. Rather than complicated and expensive optimization algorithms, a simple heuristic is presented and shown, via an implementation study, to improve system throughput by 30 percent in a local area network based system. Based on artificial wide area network delays, we show that dynamic reallocation can improve system throughput by a factor of two and a half for wide area networks. We also show that individual site load must be taken into consideration when reallocating data, and provide a simple policy that incorporates load in the reallocation decision.

Lubricant distribution and its effect on slider air bearing performance over bit patterned media disk of disk drives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Lin

2011-04-01

The distribution dynamics of a thin lubricant film on a bit-patterned media disk and its effect on the performance of the ultralow flying air bearing slider of disk drives are studied by direct numerical simulations. Our analysis shows that the physics governing lubricant distribution dynamics changes when deep enough sub-100-nm nanostructures are patterned on the disk surface. Air shearing under the slider that dominates lubricant flow on a flat disk may become negligible on a bit-patterned media disk. Surface tension and disjoining pressure become dominant factors instead. Our results show that disks with nanoscale patterns/roughness may no longer be treated as flat, and the air bearing load may strongly depend not only on the geometric detail of disk patterns but also on how lubricants are distributed on the patterns when slider-disk clearance is reduced to sub-10-nm. Air bearing load and consequently the slider's flying attitude are affected by disk pattern geometry, average lubricant thickness, and material properties of lubricant such as the surface tension coefficient and Hamaker constant. The significantly expanded parameter space, upon which ultralow flying slider's dynamics depends, has to be seriously considered in evaluating the head/disk interface tribology performance of next generation patterned media magnetic recording systems.

Depth distribution and abundance of a coral-associated reef fish: roles of recruitment and post-recruitment processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smallhorn-West, Patrick F.; Bridge, Tom C. L.; Munday, Philip L.; Jones, Geoffrey P.

2017-03-01

The abundance of many reef fish species varies with depth, but the demographic processes influencing this pattern remain unclear. Furthermore, while the distribution of highly specialized reef fish often closely matches that of their habitat, it is unclear whether changes in distribution patterns over depth are the result of changes in habitat availability or independent depth-related changes in population parameters such as recruitment and mortality. Here, we show that depth-related patterns in the distribution of the coral-associated goby, Paragobiodon xanthosoma, are strongly related to changes in recruitment and performance (growth and survival). Depth-stratified surveys showed that while the coral host, Seriatopora hystrix, extended into deeper water (>20 m), habitat use by P. xanthosoma declined with depth and both adult and juvenile P. xanthosoma were absent below 20 m. Standardization of S. hystrix abundance at three depths (5, 15 and 30 m) demonstrated that recruitment of P. xanthosoma was not determined by the availability of its habitat. Reciprocal transplantation of P. xanthosoma to S. hystrix colonies among three depths (5, 15 and 30 m) then established that individual performance (survival and growth) was lowest in deeper water; mortality was three times higher and growth greatly reduced in individuals transplanted to 30 m. Individuals collected from 15 m also exhibited growth rates 50% lower than fish from shallow depths. These results indicate that the depth distribution of this species is limited not by the availability of its coral habitat, but by demographic costs associated with living in deeper water.

Patterns of reflected radiance associated with geobotanical anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birnie, R. W.; Stone, T. A.; Francica, J. R.

1985-01-01

This paper summarizes three remote sensing experiments in which changes in remotely measured reflected radiance patterns of vegetation correlated with changes in geology. In two cases using airborne spectroradiometer data, changes in the physical properties of a uniform species correlated with zones of porphyry copper mineralization. In another case using Landsat digital data, changes were detected in the distribution and density of a number of species and combined with soil brightness data to produce a composite index useful for distinguishing lithologies.

Some considerations on the use of ecological models to predict species' geographic distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.

2001-01-01

Peterson (2001) used Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) models to predict distribution patterns from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Evaluations of these models should consider inherent limitations of BBS data: (1) BBS methods may not sample species and habitats equally; (2) using BBS data for both model development and testing may overlook poor fit of some models; and (3) BBS data may not provide the desired spatial resolution or capture temporal changes in species distributions. The predictive value of GARP models requires additional study, especially comparisons with distribution patterns from independent data sets. When employed at appropriate temporal and geographic scales, GARP models show considerable promise for conservation biology applications but provide limited inferences concerning processes responsible for the observed patterns.

Orbitofrontal sulcogyral pattern and olfactory sulcus depth in the schizophrenia spectrum.

PubMed

Nishikawa, Yumiko; Takahashi, Tsutomu; Takayanagi, Yoichiro; Furuichi, Atsushi; Kido, Mikio; Nakamura, Mihoko; Sasabayashi, Daiki; Noguchi, Kyo; Suzuki, Michio

2016-02-01

Morphological changes in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), such as an altered sulcogyral pattern of the 'H-shaped' orbital sulcus and a shallow olfactory sulcus, have been demonstrated in schizophrenia, possibly reflecting deviations in early neurodevelopment. However, it remains unclear whether patients with schizotypal features exhibit similar OFC changes. This magnetic resonance imaging study examined the OFC sulcogyral pattern (Types I, II, III, and IV) and olfactory sulcus morphology in 102 patients with schizophrenia, 47 patients with schizotypal disorder, and 84 healthy controls. The OFC sulcogyral pattern distribution between the groups was significantly different on the right hemisphere, with the schizophrenia patients showing a decrease in Type I (vs controls and schizotypal patients) and an increase in Type III (vs controls) expression. However, the schizotypal patients and controls did not differ in the OFC pattern. There were significant group differences in the olfactory sulcus depth bilaterally (schizophrenia patients < schizotypal patients < controls). Our findings suggest that schizotypal disorder, a milder form of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, partly shares the OFC changes (i.e., altered depth of the olfactory sulcus) with schizophrenia, possibly reflecting a common disease vulnerability. However, altered distribution of the OFC pattern specific to schizophrenia may at least partly reflect neurodevelopmental pathology related to a greater susceptibility to overt psychosis.

Combining Population Structure with Historic Abitoic Processes to Better Understand Species and Community Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. M.

2015-12-01

The evolution and speciation of plants is directly tied to the environment as the constrained stages of dispersal creates strong genetic differentiation among populations. This can result in differing genetic patterns between nuclear and chloroplast loci, where genes are inherited differently and dispersed via separate vectors. By developing distribution models based on genetic patterns found within a species, it is possible to begin understanding the influence of historic geomorphic and/or climatic processes on population evolution. If genetic patterns of the current range correlate with specific patterns of climate variability within the Pleistocene, it is possible that future shifts in species distribution in response to climate change can be more accurately modelled due to the historic signature that is found within inherited genes. Preliminary genetic analyses of Linanthus dichotomus, an annual herb distributed across California, suggests that the current taxonomic treatment does not accurately depict how this species is evolving. Genetic patterns of chloroplast genes suggest that populations are more correlated with biogeography than what the current nomenclature states. Additionally, chloroplast and nuclear genes show discrepancies in the dispersal across the landscape, suggesting pollinator driven gene flow overcoming seed dispersal boundaries. By comparing discrepancies between pollinator and seed induced gene flow we may be able to gain insight into historical pollinator communities within the Pleistocene. This information can then be applied to projected climate models to more accurately understand how species and/or communities will respond to a changing environment.

Landscape-scale processes influence riparian plant composition along a regulated river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmquist, Emily C.; Ralston, Barbara; Merritt, David M.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2018-01-01

Hierarchical frameworks are useful constructs when exploring landscape- and local-scale factors affecting patterns of vegetation in riparian areas. In drylands, which have steep environmental gradients and high habitat heterogeneity, landscape-scale variables, such as climate, can change rapidly along a river's course, affecting the relative influence of environmental variables at different scales. To assess how landscape-scale factors change the structure of riparian vegetation, we measured riparian vegetation composition along the Colorado River through Grand Canyon, determined which factors best explain observed changes, identified how richness and functional diversity vary, and described the implications of our results for river management. Cluster analysis identified three divergent floristic groups that are distributed longitudinally along the river. These groups were distributed along gradients of elevation, temperature and seasonal precipitation, but were not associated with annual precipitation or local-scale factors. Species richness and functional diversity decreased as a function of distance downstream showing that changing landscape-scale factors result in changes to ecosystem characteristics. Species composition and distribution remain closely linked to seasonal precipitation and temperature. These patterns in floristic composition in a semiarid system inform management and provide insights into potential future changes as a result of shifts in climate and changes in flow management.

Western forest diseases and climate relations: Root diseases and climate change

Treesearch

Mee-Sook Kim; Bryce A. Richardson; Ned B. Klopfenstein

2008-01-01

Climate change could alter patterns of disturbances from pathogens through (1) direct effects on the development, survival, reproduction, dispersal, and distribution of pathogens; (2) physiological changes in tree defenses; (3) indirect effects from changes in the abundance of mutualists and competitors.

Distribution pattern of public transport passenger in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narendra, Alfa; Malkhamah, Siti; Sopha, Bertha Maya

2018-03-01

The arrival and departure distribution pattern of Trans Jogja bus passenger is one of the fundamental model for simulation. The purpose of this paper is to build models of passengers flows. This research used passengers data from January to May 2014. There is no policy that change the operation system affecting the nature of this pattern nowadays. The roads, buses, land uses, schedule, and people are relatively still the same. The data then categorized based on the direction, days, and location. Moreover, each category was fitted into some well-known discrete distributions. Those distributions are compared based on its AIC value and BIC. The chosen distribution model has the smallest AIC and BIC value and the negative binomial distribution found has the smallest AIC and BIC value. Probability mass function (PMF) plots of those models were compared to draw generic model from each categorical negative binomial distribution models. The value of accepted generic negative binomial distribution is 0.7064 and 1.4504 of mu. The minimum and maximum passenger vector value of distribution are is 0 and 41.

Modeling the potential effects of climate change on high elevation vegetation in the Olympic Mountains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zolbrod, A.N.; Peterson, D.L.

1995-06-01

Subalpine and alpine vegetation may be particularly sensitive to climatic change, such as expected temperature increases and altered precipitation patterns with global warming. The gap replacement model ZELIG was modified and used to examine transient and steady-state changes in altitudinal treeline, tree species distribution, and forest structure and composition along elevation gradients in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, under a range of temperature and precipitation changes. Changes in vegetation pattern were examined for north vs. south aspects, and wet (southwest) vs. dry (northeast) regions of the mountains. The seedling establishment subroutine in ZELIG was improved to specifically model the complexities ofmore » tree invasion in subalpine meadows and include empirical data. A function allowing for stand replacement fire was also added in order to examine the role of altered disturbance regimes on vegetation change. Results indicate that distribution of tree species will change under various climate change scenarios, but future elevation of treeline depends greatly on precipitation levels, disturbance frequency, and aspect.« less

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spanbauer, Trisha; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Stow, Craig A.; Sundstrom, Shana M.

2016-01-01

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Phylogenetic fields through time: temporal dynamics of geographical co-occurrence and phylogenetic structure within species ranges

PubMed Central

Carotenuto, Francesco; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.

2016-01-01

Species co-occur with different sets of other species across their geographical distribution, which can be either closely or distantly related. Such co-occurrence patterns and their phylogenetic structure within individual species ranges represent what we call the species phylogenetic fields (PFs). These PFs allow investigation of the role of historical processes—speciation, extinction and dispersal—in shaping species co-occurrence patterns, in both extinct and extant species. Here, we investigate PFs of large mammalian species during the last 3 Myr, and how these correlate with trends in diversification rates. Using the fossil record, we evaluate species' distributional and co-occurrence patterns along with their phylogenetic structure. We apply a novel Bayesian framework on fossil occurrences to estimate diversification rates through time. Our findings highlight the effect of evolutionary processes and past climatic changes on species' distributions and co-occurrences. From the Late Pliocene to the Recent, mammal species seem to have responded in an individualistic manner to climate changes and diversification dynamics, co-occurring with different sets of species from different lineages across their geographical ranges. These findings stress the difficulty of forecasting potential effects of future climate changes on biodiversity. PMID:26977061

On the temperature control in self-controlling hyperthermia therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimi, Mahyar

2016-10-01

In self-controlling hyperthermia therapy, once the desired temperature is reached, the heat generation ceases and overheating is prevented. In order to design a system that generates sufficient heat without thermal ablation of surrounding healthy tissue, a good understanding of temperature distribution and its change with time is imperative. This study is conducted to extend our understanding about the heat generation and transfer, temperature distribution and temperature rise pattern in the tumor and surrounding tissue during self-controlling magnetic hyperthermia. A model consisting of two concentric spheres that represents the tumor and its surrounding tissue is considered and temperature change pattern and temperature distribution in tumor and surrounding tissue are studied. After describing the model and its governing equations and constants precisely, a typical numerical solution of the model is presented. Then it is showed that how different parameters like Curie temperature of nanoparticles, magnetic field amplitude and nanoparticles concentration can affect the temperature change pattern during self-controlling magnetic hyperthermia. The model system herein discussed can be useful to gain insight on the self-controlling magnetic hyperthermia while applied to cancer treatment in real scenario and can be useful for treatment strategy determination.

Phylogenetic fields through time: temporal dynamics of geographical co-occurrence and phylogenetic structure within species ranges.

PubMed

Villalobos, Fabricio; Carotenuto, Francesco; Raia, Pasquale; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F

2016-04-05

Species co-occur with different sets of other species across their geographical distribution, which can be either closely or distantly related. Such co-occurrence patterns and their phylogenetic structure within individual species ranges represent what we call the species phylogenetic fields (PFs). These PFs allow investigation of the role of historical processes--speciation, extinction and dispersal--in shaping species co-occurrence patterns, in both extinct and extant species. Here, we investigate PFs of large mammalian species during the last 3 Myr, and how these correlate with trends in diversification rates. Using the fossil record, we evaluate species' distributional and co-occurrence patterns along with their phylogenetic structure. We apply a novel Bayesian framework on fossil occurrences to estimate diversification rates through time. Our findings highlight the effect of evolutionary processes and past climatic changes on species' distributions and co-occurrences. From the Late Pliocene to the Recent, mammal species seem to have responded in an individualistic manner to climate changes and diversification dynamics, co-occurring with different sets of species from different lineages across their geographical ranges. These findings stress the difficulty of forecasting potential effects of future climate changes on biodiversity. © 2016 The Author(s).

Shifts in the potential distribution of Sky Island plant communities in response to climate change

Treesearch

John A. Kupfer; Jeff Balmat; Jacqueline L. Smith

2005-01-01

To examine potential responses of sky island ecosystem pattern to projected climate changes, we used topographic and climatic data to develop a predictive model of plant community distribution in Saguaro National Park East, AZ. Increasing temperatures led to an upslope movement of communities and increased the area of desert scrub at the expense of montane conifer...

From endogenous to exogenous pattern formation: Invasive plant species changes the spatial distribution of a native ant.

PubMed

Li, Kevin; He, Yifan; Campbell, Susanna K; Colborn, A Shawn; Jackson, Eliot L; Martin, Austin; Monagan, Ivan V; Ong, Theresa Wei Ying; Perfecto, Ivette

2017-06-01

Invasive species are a significant threat to global biodiversity, but our understanding of how invasive species impact native communities across space and time remains limited. Based on observations in an old field in Southeast Michigan spanning 35 years, our study documents significant impacts of habitat change, likely driven by the invasion of the shrub, Elaeagnus umbellata, on the nest distribution patterns and population demographics of a native ant species, Formica obscuripes. Landcover change in aerial photographs indicates that E. umbellata expanded aggressively, transforming a large proportion of the original open field into dense shrubland. By comparing the ant's landcover preferences before and after the invasion, we demonstrate that this species experienced a significant unfavorable change in its foraging areas. We also find that shrub landcover significantly moderates aggression between nests, suggesting nests are more related where there is more E. umbellata. This may represent a shift in reproductive strategy from queen flights, reported in the past, to asexual nest budding. Our results suggest that E. umbellata may affect the spatial distribution of F. obscuripes by shifting the drivers of nest pattern formation from an endogenous process (queen flights), which led to a uniform pattern, to a process that is both endogenous (nest budding) and exogenous (loss of preferred habitat), resulting in a significantly different clustered pattern. The number and sizes of F. obscuripes nests in our study site are projected to decrease in the next 40 years, although further study of this population's colony structures is needed to understand the extent of this decrease. Elaeagnus umbellata is a common invasive shrub, and similar impacts on native species might occur in its invasive range, or in areas with similar shrub invasions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Biomass distribution patterns of Alnus hirsuta and Betula platyphylla-swamp ecotone communities in Changbai Mountains].

PubMed

Mu, Changcheng; Wan, Shucheng; Su, Ping; Song, Hongwen; Sun, Zhihu

2004-12-01

In order to reveal the growth patterns of dominant tree species and the distribution patterns of community biomass along the horizontal environmental gradients or among the vertical layers of communities in Changbai Mountains, this paper studied the biomass distribution patterns of Alnus hirsuta-swamp and Betula platyphylla-swamp ecotone communities. The results showed that there were some differences in growth rate and in adaptability to habitats between A. hirsuta and B. platyphylla. In the wetland habitats of the ecotone, A. hirsuta grew 1-2 times faster than B. platyphylla, but along the gradient from swamp to forest, it grew slowly, while B. platyphylla grew fast. Therefore, A. hirsuta was a favorite tree species in wetland habitats. The distribution pattern of organ biomass was similar between A. hirsute and B. platyphylla, the trunk being 1/2, tree root 1/4, branch 1/10, bark 1.5/20, and leaf 1/20. The vertical distribution pattern of biomass was also similar between A. hirsute-swamp and B. platyphylla-swamp ecotone communities, the tree, shrub, and herbage layer accounted for 87%-90%, 7%-9%, and 2%-3%, respectively in the whole ecotone communities. The community biomass increased linearly from swamp to forest with the change of environment factors.

[Effects of topography on the diversity and distribution pattern of ground plants in karst montane forests in Southwest Guangxi, China].

PubMed

Yuan, Tie-Xiang; Zhang, He-Ping; Ou, Zhi-Yang; Tan, Yi-Bo

2014-10-01

Covariance analysis, curve-fitting, and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) were used to explore the effects of topographic factors on the plant diversity and distribution patterns of ground flora with different growth forms in the karst mountains of Southwest Guangxi, China. A total of 152 ground plants were recorded. Among them, 37 species were ferns, 44 species herbs, 9 species lianas, and 62 species shrubs. Covariance analysis revealed that altitude significantly correlated with the individual number and richness of ground plants, and slope aspect had a significant effect on richness. Statistical analyses showed a highly significant nonlinear correlation between the individual number or richness of ground plants and altitude. Results of CCA revealed that slope aspect had a significant effect on the distribution pattern of ferns, and slope had a significant effect on the distribution patterns of herbs, lianas and shrubs. Ferns were more sensitive than herbs, lianas and shrubs to changes in heat and soil water caused by aspect. The effect of slope was stronger than that of elevation on soil water and nutrients, and it was the most important topographic factor that affected the distribution patterns of herbs, lianas and shrubs in this region.

Patterns of particle distribution in multiparticle systems by random walks with memory enhancement and decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zhi-Jie; Zou, Xian-Wu; Huang, Sheng-You; Zhang, Wei; Jin, Zhun-Zhi

2002-07-01

We investigate the pattern of particle distribution and its evolution with time in multiparticle systems using the model of random walks with memory enhancement and decay. This model describes some biological intelligent walks. With decrease in the memory decay exponent α, the distribution of particles changes from a random dispersive pattern to a locally dense one, and then returns to the random one. Correspondingly, the fractal dimension Df,p characterizing the distribution of particle positions increases from a low value to a maximum and then decreases to the low one again. This is determined by the degree of overlap of regions consisting of sites with remanent information. The second moment of the density ρ(2) was introduced to investigate the inhomogeneity of the particle distribution. The dependence of ρ(2) on α is similar to that of Df,p on α. ρ(2) increases with time as a power law in the process of adjusting the particle distribution, and then ρ(2) tends to a stable equilibrium value.

Have bird distributions shifted along an elevational gradient on a tropical mountain?

PubMed

Campos-Cerqueira, Marconi; Arendt, Wayne J; Wunderle, Joseph M; Aide, T Mitchell

2017-12-01

An upward shift in elevation is one of the most conspicuous species responses to climate change. Nevertheless, downward shifts and, apparently, the absences of response have also been recently reported. Given the growing evidence of multiple responses of species distributions due to climate change and the paucity of studies in the tropics, we evaluated the response of a montane bird community to climate change, without the confounding effects of land-use change. To test for elevational shifts, we compared the distribution of 21 avian species in 1998 and 2015 using occupancy models. The historical data set was based on point counts, whereas the contemporary data set was based on acoustic monitoring. We detected a similar number of species in historical (36) and contemporary data sets (33). We show an overall pattern of no significant change in range limits for most species, although there was a significant shift in the range limit of eight species (38%). Elevation limits shifted mostly upward, and this pattern was more common for upper than lower limits. Our results highlight the variability of species responses to climate change and illustrate how acoustic monitoring provides an easy and powerful way to monitor animal populations along elevational gradients.

Apparent plasticity in functional traits determining competitive ability and spatial distribution: a case from desert.

PubMed

Xie, Jiang-Bo; Xu, Gui-Qing; Jenerette, G Darrel; Bai, Yong-fei; Wang, Zhong-Yuan; Li, Yan

2015-07-20

Species competitive abilities and their distributions are closely related to functional traits such as biomass allocation patterns. When we consider how nutrient supply affects competitive abilities, quantifying the apparent and true plasticity in functional traits is important because the allometric relationships among traits are universal in plants. We propose to integrate the notion of allometry and the classical reaction norm into a composite theoretical framework that quantifies the apparent and true plasticity. Combining the framework with a meta-analysis, a series of field surveys and a competition experiment, we aimed to determine the causes of the dune/interdune distribution patterns of two Haloxylon species in the Gurbantonggut Desert. We found that (1) the biomass allocation patterns of both Haloxylon species in responses to environmental conditions were apparent rather than true plasticity and (2) the allometric allocation patterns affected the plants' competition for soil nutrient supply. A key implication of our results is that the apparent plasticity in functional traits of plants determines their response to environmental change. Without identifying the apparent and true plasticity, we would substantially overestimate the magnitude, duration and even the direction of plant responses in functional traits to climate change.

Apparent plasticity in functional traits determining competitive ability and spatial distribution: a case from desert

PubMed Central

Xie, Jiang-Bo; Xu, Gui-Qing; Jenerette, G. Darrel; Bai, Yong-fei; Wang, Zhong-Yuan; Li, Yan

2015-01-01

Species competitive abilities and their distributions are closely related to functional traits such as biomass allocation patterns. When we consider how nutrient supply affects competitive abilities, quantifying the apparent and true plasticity in functional traits is important because the allometric relationships among traits are universal in plants. We propose to integrate the notion of allometry and the classical reaction norm into a composite theoretical framework that quantifies the apparent and true plasticity. Combining the framework with a meta-analysis, a series of field surveys and a competition experiment, we aimed to determine the causes of the dune/interdune distribution patterns of two Haloxylon species in the Gurbantonggut Desert. We found that (1) the biomass allocation patterns of both Haloxylon species in responses to environmental conditions were apparent rather than true plasticity and (2) the allometric allocation patterns affected the plants’ competition for soil nutrient supply. A key implication of our results is that the apparent plasticity in functional traits of plants determines their response to environmental change. Without identifying the apparent and true plasticity, we would substantially overestimate the magnitude, duration and even the direction of plant responses in functional traits to climate change. PMID:26190745

Dynamics of Learning in Cultured Neuronal Networks with Antagonists of Glutamate Receptors

PubMed Central

Li, Yanling; Zhou, Wei; Li, Xiangning; Zeng, Shaoqun; Luo, Qingming

2007-01-01

Cognitive dysfunction may result from abnormality of ionotropic glutamate receptors. Although various forms of synaptic plasticity in learning that rely on altering of glutamate receptors have been considered, the evidence is insufficient from an informatics view. Dynamics could reflect neuroinformatics encoding, including temporal pattern encoding, spatial pattern encoding, and energy distribution. Discovering informatics encoding is fundamental and crucial to understanding the working principle of the neural system. In this article, we analyzed the dynamic characteristics of response activities during learning training in cultured hippocampal networks under normal and abnormal conditions of ionotropic glutamate receptors, respectively. The rate, which is one of the temporal configurations, was decreased markedly by inhibition of α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methylisoxazole-4-proprionic acid (AMPA) receptors. Moreover, the energy distribution in different characteristic frequencies was changed markedly by inhibition of AMPA receptors. Spatial configurations, including regularization, correlation, and synchrony, were changed significantly by inhibition of N-methyl-d-aspartate receptors. These results suggest that temporal pattern encoding and energy distribution of response activities in cultured hippocampal neuronal networks during learning training are modulated by AMPA receptors, whereas spatial pattern encoding of response activities is modulated by N-methyl-d-aspartate receptors. PMID:17766359

Monitoring Agricultural Cropping Patterns in the Great Lakes Basin Using MODIS-NDVI Time Series Data

EPA Science Inventory

This research examined changes in agricultural cropping patterns across the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. Specific research objectives were to characterize the distribut...

Cryptic biodiversity loss linked to global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bálint, M.; Domisch, S.; Engelhardt, C. H. M.; Haase, P.; Lehrian, S.; Sauer, J.; Theissinger, K.; Pauls, S. U.; Nowak, C.

2011-09-01

Global climate change (GCC) significantly affects distributional patterns of organisms, and considerable impacts on biodiversity are predicted for the next decades. Inferred effects include large-scale range shifts towards higher altitudes and latitudes, facilitation of biological invasions and species extinctions. Alterations of biotic patterns caused by GCC have usually been predicted on the scale of taxonomically recognized morphospecies. However, the effects of climate change at the most fundamental level of biodiversity--intraspecific genetic diversity--remain elusive. Here we show that the use of morphospecies-based assessments of GCC effects will result in underestimations of the true scale of biodiversity loss. Species distribution modelling and assessments of mitochondrial DNA variability in nine montane aquatic insect species in Europe indicate that future range contractions will be accompanied by severe losses of cryptic evolutionary lineages and genetic diversity within these lineages. These losses greatly exceed those at the scale of morphospecies. We also document that the extent of range reduction may be a useful proxy when predicting losses of genetic diversity. Our results demonstrate that intraspecific patterns of genetic diversity should be considered when estimating the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Past connection and isolation of catchments: The sea-level changes affect the distribution and genetic variability of coastal freshwater fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tschá, Marcel K.; Bachmann, Lutz; Abilhoa, Vinícius; Boeger, Walter A.

2017-05-01

The Atlantic coast of South America is characterized by a great diversity and endemism of fishes. Past eustatic changes that promoted cycles of isolation, expansion, and connection of coastal catchments are considered putative drivers of genetic differentiation and phylogenetic diversity. It is hypothesized that recent eustatic movements have left signs of impact on the demographic history and local distribution patterns of freshwater fishes. This study addressed the phylogeography and demographic history of two siluriform (Scleromystax barbatus, Rineloricaria sp.) and one characiform (Mimagoniates microlepis) fish species from the coastal plain of the state of Paraná, Paranaguá Bay, Brazil. Nucleotide sequence data of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene support the hypothesis that the populations of the three species are genetically differentiated at all sampled catchments. Haplotype networks of these populations indicate different histories and include scenarios of secondary contact, population expansion, and isolation. Neutrality tests and the reconstructed patterns of demographic history in mismatch distributions were also consistent with population expansion in the western basins and, in general, secondary contact in the northern basins. Our results are consistent with the reconstructed paleodrainage in the region and with the hypothesis that recurrent reconnections and isolation of streams associated with eustatic changes have strongly influenced the current pattern of diversity, and reflect the distribution of freshwater fishes in this coastal hydrographic system.

Distribution of Boreal Toad Populations in Relation to Estimated UV-B Dose in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

EPA Science Inventory

This work provides information on amphibian distributions as well as the range of UV-B exposure in mountain habitats, and will be of use to scientists interested in tracking changes in amphibian distributions and abundance, and spatial and temporal patterns of UV-B exposure

Movements of wintering surf scoters: Predator responses to different prey landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirk, M.; Esler, Daniel N.; Iverson, S.A.; Boyd, W.S.

2008-01-01

The distribution of predators is widely recognized to be intimately linked to the distribution of their prey. Foraging theory suggests that predators will modify their behaviors, including movements, to optimize net energy intake when faced with variation in prey attributes or abundance. While many studies have documented changes in movement patterns of animals in response to temporal changes in food, very few have contrasted movements of a single predator species naturally occurring in dramatically different prey landscapes. We documented variation in the winter movements, foraging range size, site fidelity, and distribution patterns of a molluscivorous sea duck, the surf scoter (Melanitta perspicillata), in two areas of coastal British Columbia with very different shellfish prey features. Baynes Sound has extensive tidal flats with abundant clams, which are high-quality and temporally stable prey for scoters. Malaspina Inlet is a rocky fjord-like inlet where scoters consume mussels that are superabundant and easily accessible in some patches but are heavily depleted over the course of winter. We used radio telemetry to track surf scoter movements in both areas and found that in the clam habitats of Baynes Sound, surf scoters exhibited limited movement, small winter ranges, strong foraging site fidelity, and very consistent distribution patterns. By contrast, in mussel habitats in the Malaspina Inlet, surf scoters displayed more movement, larger ranges, little fidelity to specific foraging sites, and more variable distribution patterns. We conclude that features associated with the different prey types, particularly the higher depletion rates of mussels, strongly influenced seasonal space use patterns. These findings are consistent with foraging theory and confirm that predator behavior, specifically movements, is environmentally mediated. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag.

Critical thresholds in species` responses to landscape structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

With, K.A.; Crist, T.O.

1995-12-01

Critical thresholds are transition ranges across which small changes in spatial pattern produce abrupt shifts in ecological responses. Habitat fragmentation provides a familiar example of a critical threshold. As the landscape becomes dissected into smaller parcels of habitat. landscape connectivity-the functional linkage among habitat patches - may suddenly become disrupted, which may have important consequences for the distribution and persistence of populations. Landscape connectivity depends not only on the abundance and spatial patterning of habitat. but also on the habitat specificity and dispersal abilities of species. Habitat specialists with limited dispersal capabilities presumably have a much lower threshold to habitatmore » fragmentation than highly vagile species, which may perceive the landscape as functionally connected across a greater range of fragmentation severity. To determine where threshold effects in species, responses to landscape structure are likely to occur, a simulation model modified from percolation theory was developed. Our simulations predicted the distributional patterns of populations in different landscape mosaics, which we tested empirically using two grasshopper species (Orthoptera: Acrididae) that occur in the shortgrass prairie of north-central Colorado. The distribution of these two species in this grassland mosaic matched the predictions from our simulations. By providing quantitative predictions of threshold effects, this modelling approach may prove useful in the formulation of conservation strategies and assessment of land-use changes on species` distributional patterns and persistence.« less

Chikungunya, climate change, and human rights.

PubMed

Meason, Braden; Paterson, Ryan

2014-06-14

Chikungunya is a re-emerging arbovirus that causes significant morbidity and some mortality. Global climate change leading to warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns allow mosquito vectors to thrive at altitudes and at locations where they previously have not, ultimately leading to a spread of mosquito-borne diseases. While mutations to the chikungunya virus are responsible for some portion of the re-emergence, chikungunya epidemiology is closely tied with weather patterns in Southeast Asia. Extrapolation of this regional pattern, combined with known climate factors impacting the spread of malaria and dengue, summate to a dark picture of climate change and the spread of this disease from south Asia and Africa into Europe and North America. This review describes chikungunya and collates current data regarding its spread in which climate change plays an important part. We also examine human rights obligations of States and others to protect against this disease. Copyright © 2014 Meason, Paterson. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Impact of topography and land-sea distribution on east Asian paleoenvironmental patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z. S.; Wang, H. J.; Guo, Z. T.; Jiang, D. B.

2006-03-01

Much geological research has illustrated the transition of paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic from a planetary-wind-dominant type to a monsoon-dominant type, indicating the initiation of the East Asian monsoon and inland-type aridity. However, there is a dispute about the causes and mechanisms of the transition, especially about the impact of the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat. Thirty numerical sensitivity experiments under different land-sea distributions and Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau topography conditions are performed here to simulate the evolution of climate belts with emphasis on changes in the rain band, and these are compared with the changes in the paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic recovered by geological records, The consistency between simulations and the geological evidence indicates that both the Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat play important roles in the formation of the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern. Furthermore, the simulations show the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern comes into being when the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau reaches 1000-2000 m high and the Paratethys Sea retreats to the Turan Plate.

Prediction-based dynamic load-sharing heuristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goswami, Kumar K.; Devarakonda, Murthy; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

1993-01-01

The authors present dynamic load-sharing heuristics that use predicted resource requirements of processes to manage workloads in a distributed system. A previously developed statistical pattern-recognition method is employed for resource prediction. While nonprediction-based heuristics depend on a rapidly changing system status, the new heuristics depend on slowly changing program resource usage patterns. Furthermore, prediction-based heuristics can be more effective since they use future requirements rather than just the current system state. Four prediction-based heuristics, two centralized and two distributed, are presented. Using trace driven simulations, they are compared against random scheduling and two effective nonprediction based heuristics. Results show that the prediction-based centralized heuristics achieve up to 30 percent better response times than the nonprediction centralized heuristic, and that the prediction-based distributed heuristics achieve up to 50 percent improvements relative to their nonprediction counterpart.

Dynamics of ecosystem service values in response to landscape pattern changes from 1995 to 2005 in Guangzhou, Southern China

Treesearch

Yanqiong Ye; Jia' en Zhang; Lili Chen; Ying Ouyang; Prem Parajuli

2015-01-01

This study analyzed the landscape pattern changes, the dynamics of the ecosystem service values (ESVs) and the spatial distribution of ESVs from 1995 to 2005 in Guangzhou, which is the capital of Guangdong Province and a regional central city in South China. Remote sensing data and geographic information system techniques, in conjunction with spatial metrics, were used...

A data centred method to estimate and map changes in the full distribution of daily surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2016-04-01

Characterizing how our climate is changing includes local information which can inform adaptation planning decisions. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in changes at specific quantiles or thresholds in distributions of variables such as daily surface temperature. Here we focus on these local changes and on a model independent method to transform daily observations into patterns of local climate change. Our method [1] is a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of how fast different quantiles of the distributions are changing. This involves both determining which quantiles and geographical locations show the greatest change but also, those at which any change is highly uncertain. For temperature, changes in the distribution itself can yield robust results [2]. We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely from observations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations [3]. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data [4] timeseries of local daily surface temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. [1] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, On estimating long term local climate trends, Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 (2013) [2] Stainforth, D. A. S. C. Chapman, N. W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions, ERL 8, 034031 (2013) [3] Chapman, S. C., Stainforth, D. A., Watkins, N. W. Limits to the quantification of local climate change, ERL 10, 094018 (2015) [4] Haylock M. R. et al ., A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, (2008)

Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four yucca moths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Christopher Irwin; Tank, Shantel; Godsoe, William; Levenick, Jim; Strand, Eva; Esque, Todd C.; Pellmyr, Olle

2011-01-01

Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community – Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial period, and the inferred demographic changes substantially predate Holocene climate changes.

Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: Concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four Yucca moths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, C.I.; Tank, S.; Godsoe, W.; Levenick, J.; Strand, Espen; Esque, T.; Pellmyr, O.

2011-01-01

Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community - Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial period, and the inferred demographic changes substantially predate Holocene climate changes.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.

PubMed

Castillo, Andrea G; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio

2018-01-01

The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species ( L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe ). We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile

PubMed Central

Castillo, Andrea G.; González, Benito A.

2018-01-01

Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe). Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics. PMID:29868293

Rooting depth distribution and nitrogen acquisition using 15N tracer, Barrow, Alaska, 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Colleen Iversen

Permafrost thaw and degradation may lead to altered thickness of the active soil layer and a changing distribution of plant-available nutrients throughout the soil, but little is known about the nutrient acquisition strategies of dominant tundra plant species. We conducted an 15N isotope tracer experiment to assess the vertical distribution of nutrient acquisition among three dominant species representing important plant functional types (PFTs) on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) in Barrow, Alaska. We found that vertical patterns of root distribution and nutrient acquisition varied among plant species, and that root density may not entirely explain patterns of nutrient acquisition formore » all species.« less

Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod.

PubMed

Engelhard, Georg H; Righton, David A; Pinnegar, John K

2014-08-01

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913-2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod - mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea - is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century - mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3 1/2 decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish. © 2013 Crown copyright. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Reflective Light Modulation by Cephalopods and Fishes in Shallow Nearshore Habitats

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

cephalopods and fish to document (a) speed of body patterning changes and (b) the range of microhabitats that they encounter 1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A...Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the...11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION /AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. PMID:28257501

Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod

PubMed Central

Engelhard, Georg H; Righton, David A; Pinnegar, John K

2014-01-01

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913–2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod – mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea – is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century – mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3½ decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish. PMID:24375860

Moving Uphill: Microbial Facilitation at the Leading Edge of Plant Species Distributional Shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suding, K.; Farrer, E.; Spasojevic, M.; Porazinska, D.; Bueno de Mesquita, C.; Schmidt, S. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to influence species distributions and reshuffle patterns of biodiversity. A key challenge to our understanding of these effects is that biotic interactions - new species to compete with, new stressors that increase dependence on facilitation, new prey or predators - will likely affect the ability of species to track climate at the leading edges of their distributional range. While it is well established that soil biota strongly influence plant abundance and diversity, it has been difficult to quantify the key belowground dynamics. This presentation will investigate the influence of one key biotic interaction, between plants and soil microbiota, on the ability of plant species to track climate change and expand their range uphill in a high montane system in the Front Range of Colorado. High-resolution photography from 1972 and 2008 indicate colonization of tundra vegetation in formerly unvegetated areas. Observational work on the distributions patterns of both plants and soil microbiota (bacteria, fungi and nematodes) in a spatially-explicit grid at the upper edge of plant distributions indicate strong, mostly positive, associations between plant species and soil taxa. Abiotic factors, while important, consistently underpredicted the occurrence of plant species and, in nine of the 12 most common tundra plants, co-occurring microbial taxa were important predictors of plant occurrence. Comparison of plant and microbial distributional patterns in 2007 and 2015 indicate the influence of microbial community composition on assembly and beta-diversity of the plant community over time. Plant colonization patterns in this region previously devoid of vegetation will likely influence carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics, with downstream consequences on nutrient limitation and phytoplankton composition in alpine lakes.

Biogeographic discordance of molecular phylogenetic and phenotypic variation in a continental archipelago radiation of land snails.

PubMed

Stankowski, Sean; Johnson, Michael S

2014-01-07

In island archipelagos, where islands have experienced repeated periods of fragmentation and connection through cyclic changes in sea level, complex among-island distributions might reflect historical distributional changes or local evolution. We test the relative importance of these mechanisms in an endemic radiation of Rhagada land snails in the Dampier Archipelago, a continental archipelago off the coast of Western Australia, where ten morphospecies have complex, overlapping distributions. We obtained partial mtDNA sequence (COI) for 1015 snails collected from 213 locations across 30 Islands, and used Bayesian phylogenetic analysis and Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) to determine whether geography or the morphological taxonomy best explains the pattern of molecular evolution. Rather than forming distinct monophyletic groups, as would be expected if they had single, independent origins, all of the widely distributed morphospecies were polyphyletic, distributed among several well-supported clades, each of which included several morphospecies. Each mitochondrial clade had a clear, cohesive geographic distribution, together forming a series of parapatric replacements separated by narrow contact zones. AMOVA revealed further incongruence between mtDNA diversity and morphological variation within clades, as the taxonomic hypothesis always explained a low or non-significant proportion of the molecular variation. In contrast, the pattern of mtDNA evolution closely reflected contemporary and historical marine barriers. Despite opportunities for distributional changes during periods when the islands were connected, there is no evidence that dispersal has contributed to the geographic variation of shell form at the broad scale. Based on an estimate of dispersal made previously for Rhagada, we conclude that the periods of connection have been too short in duration to allow for extensive overland dispersal or deep mitochondrial introgression. The result is a sharp and resilient phylogeographic pattern. The distribution of morphotypes among clades and distant islands is explained most simply by their parallel evolution.

Biogeographic discordance of molecular phylogenetic and phenotypic variation in a continental archipelago radiation of land snails

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In island archipelagos, where islands have experienced repeated periods of fragmentation and connection through cyclic changes in sea level, complex among-island distributions might reflect historical distributional changes or local evolution. We test the relative importance of these mechanisms in an endemic radiation of Rhagada land snails in the Dampier Archipelago, a continental archipelago off the coast of Western Australia, where ten morphospecies have complex, overlapping distributions. Results We obtained partial mtDNA sequence (COI) for 1015 snails collected from 213 locations across 30 Islands, and used Bayesian phylogenetic analysis and Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) to determine whether geography or the morphological taxonomy best explains the pattern of molecular evolution. Rather than forming distinct monophyletic groups, as would be expected if they had single, independent origins, all of the widely distributed morphospecies were polyphyletic, distributed among several well-supported clades, each of which included several morphospecies. Each mitochondrial clade had a clear, cohesive geographic distribution, together forming a series of parapatric replacements separated by narrow contact zones. AMOVA revealed further incongruence between mtDNA diversity and morphological variation within clades, as the taxonomic hypothesis always explained a low or non-significant proportion of the molecular variation. In contrast, the pattern of mtDNA evolution closely reflected contemporary and historical marine barriers. Conclusions Despite opportunities for distributional changes during periods when the islands were connected, there is no evidence that dispersal has contributed to the geographic variation of shell form at the broad scale. Based on an estimate of dispersal made previously for Rhagada, we conclude that the periods of connection have been too short in duration to allow for extensive overland dispersal or deep mitochondrial introgression. The result is a sharp and resilient phylogeographic pattern. The distribution of morphotypes among clades and distant islands is explained most simply by their parallel evolution. PMID:24393567

Seed-deposition and recruitment patterns of Clusia species in a disturbed tropical montane forest in Bolivia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saavedra, Francisco; Hensen, Isabell; Apaza Quevedo, Amira; Neuschulz, Eike Lena; Schleuning, Matthias

2017-11-01

Spatial patterns of seed dispersal and recruitment of fleshy-fruited plants in tropical forests are supposed to be driven by the activity of animal seed dispersers, but the spatial patterns of seed dispersal, seedlings and saplings have rarely been analyzed simultaneously. We studied seed deposition and recruitment patterns of three Clusia species in a tropical montane forest of the Bolivian Andes and tested whether these patterns changed between habitat types (forest edge vs. forest interior), distance to the fruiting tree and consecutive recruitment stages of the seedlings. We recorded the number of seeds deposited in seed traps to assess the local seed-deposition pattern and the abundance and distribution of seedlings and saplings to evaluate the spatial pattern of recruitment. More seeds were removed and deposited at the forest edge than in the interior. The number of deposited seeds decreased with distance from the fruiting tree and was spatially clustered in both habitat types. The density of 1-yr-old seedlings and saplings was higher at forest edges, whereas the density of 2-yr-old seedlings was similar in both habitat types. While seedlings were almost randomly distributed, seeds and saplings were spatially clustered in both habitat types. Our findings demonstrate systematic changes in spatial patterns of recruits across the plant regeneration cycle and suggest that the differential effects of biotic and abiotic factors determine plant recruitment at the edges and in the interior of tropical montane forests. These differences in the spatial distribution of individuals across recruitment stages may have strong effects on plant community dynamics and influence plant species coexistence in disturbed tropical forests.

An Analysis of the 1979 Annual Survey of Graduating Veterinary Students at U.S. and Canadian Colleges.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zeglen, Marie E.

1980-01-01

Results of a survey assessing changing patterns of veterinary manpower distribution and supply are reported and analyzed. Data are given on job application and employment patterns, preferences, and geographic location. Income levels, geographic mobility, and type of employment are also reported. (MSE)

Broken down by Sex and Age: Australian University Staffing Patterns 1994-2003

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dobson, Ian R.

2006-01-01

This article examines trends in Australian university staffing through an analysis of ten years' staff statistics, 1994-2003. An introduction which considers definitions, methodological issues, and overall changes in patterns of casualisation, sex and the distribution of academic and general ("non-academic") staff categories is followed…

Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P.

2013-12-01

Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.

Earnings of Students Who Change Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holmlund, Linda; Regner, Hakan

2012-01-01

Using data on Swedish university entrants, this study finds that earnings are significantly lower for students who change universities compared to students who do not change. Earnings differences decrease over time and over the earnings distribution. The pattern in the estimates seems consistent with non-transfer students having higher earnings…

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

PubMed

Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

Riding the Right Wavelet: Quantifying Scale Transitions in Fractured Rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzo, Roberto E.; Healy, David; Farrell, Natalie J.; Heap, Michael J.

2017-12-01

The mechanics of brittle failure is a well-described multiscale process that involves a rapid transition from distributed microcracks to localization along a single macroscopic rupture plane. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding both the length scale at which this transition occurs and the underlying causes that prompt this shift from a distributed to a localized assemblage of cracks or fractures. For the first time, we used an image analysis tool developed to investigate orientation changes at different scales in images of fracture patterns in faulted materials, based on a two-dimensional continuous wavelet analysis. We detected the abrupt change in the fracture pattern from distributed tensile microcracks to localized shear failure in a fracture network produced by triaxial deformation of a sandstone core plug. The presented method will contribute to our ability of unraveling the physical processes at the base of catastrophic rock failure, including the nucleation of earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions.

Stemwood production patterns in ponderosa pine: effects of stand dynamics and other factors

Treesearch

Michael J. Arbaugh; David L. Peterson

1993-01-01

Growth patterns of vertical stems in nine ponderosa pines from a stand in the southern Sierra Nevada were analyzed for recent changes due to stand dominance position, age, climate, and ozone exposure. Large positive correlations were found between increments in volume growth and basal area at d.b.h. The results indicated that patterns of wood distribution along the...

Unravelling a biogeographical knot: origin of the 'leapfrog' distribution pattern of Australo-Papuan sooty owls (Strigiformes) and logrunners (Passeriformes).

PubMed

Norman, J A; Christidis, L; Joseph, L; Slikas, B; Alpers, D

2002-10-22

Molecular analysis of two Australo-Papuan rainforest birds exhibiting correlated 'leapfrog' patterns were used to elucidate the evolutionary origin of this unusual pattern of geographical differentiation. In both sooty owls (Tyto) and logrunners (Orthonyx), phenotypically similar populations occupy widely disjunct areas (central-eastern Australia and upland New Guinea) with a third, highly distinctive population, occurring between them in northeastern Queensland. Two mechanisms have been proposed to explain the origin of leapfrog patterns in avian distributions: recent shared ancestry of terminal populations and unequal rates or phenotypic change among populations. As the former should generate correlated patterns of phenotypic and genetic differentiation, we tested for a sister relationship between populations from New Guinea and central-eastern Australia using nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequences. The resulting phylogenies not only refute recent ancestry as an explanation for the leapfrog pattern, but provide evidence of vastly different spatio-temporal histories for sooty owls and logrunners within the Australo-Papuan rainforests. This incongruence indicates that the evolutionary processes responsible for generating leapfrog patterns in these co-distributed taxa are complex, possibly involving a combination of selection and drift in sooty owls and convergence or retention of ancestral characteristics in logrunners.

[Responses of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to precipitation changes on the grassland of Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2015.

PubMed

Wang, Zhi Peng; Zhang, Xian Zhou; He, Yong Tao; Li, Meng; Shi, Pei Li; Zu, Jia Xing; Niu, Ben

2018-01-01

Precipitation change is an important factor in the inter-annual variation of grassland growth on the Tibetan Plateau. The total amount, distribution pattern and concentration time are three basic characteristics of precipitation change. The temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation change were analyzed based on climate data of 145 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau and nearby areas from 2000 to 2015. The total precipitation amount was characterized by annual precipitation, distribution pattern of precipitation during the year was characterized by improved precipitation concentration index (PCI), and precipitation centroid (PC) was defined to indicate the change in precipitation concentrated time. To better illustrate the response of grassland to precipitation change, vegetation growth status was characterized by the maximum value of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI max ). Results indicated that the annual precipitation and PCI had an apparent gradient across the whole plateau and the latest PC occurred in the southern plateau. NDVI max of alpine shrub grassland was significantly correlated with the change of PCI,increased with even distribution of precipitation during growth period, and limited by the total annual precipitation. Alpine meadow did not show significantly correlations with these three indices. The inter-annual variability of NDVI max of steppe was controlled by both PCI and PC. NDVI max of alpine desert grassland was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. In addition to annual total amount of precipitation, the distribution characteristics of precipitation should be further considered when the influence of precipitation change on different types of vegetation on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau was studied.

Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption: A No-Analog Future for California Birds?

PubMed Central

Stralberg, Diana; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Howell, Christine A.; Snyder, Mark A.; Alexander, John D.; Wiens, John A.; Root, Terry L.

2009-01-01

By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages. PMID:19724641

Effects of contrasting rooting distribution patterns on plant transpiration along a precipitation gradient

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding and predicting ecosystem functioning in water limited ecosystems requires a thorough assessment of the role plant root systems. Widespread ecological phenomena such as shrub encroachment may drastically change root distribution in the soil profile affecting the uptake of water and nutr...

Environmental, land cover and land use constraints on the distributional patterns of anurans: Leptodacylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae) from Dry Chaco

PubMed Central

Medina, Regina Gabriela; Aráoz, Ezequiel

2016-01-01

Subtropical dry forests are among the most vulnerable biomes to land transformation at a global scale. Among them, the Dry Chaco suffers an accelerated change due to agriculture expansion and intensification. The Dry Chaco ecoregion is characterized by high levels of endemisms and species diversity, which are the result of a variety of climates and reliefs, allowing a wide variety of environments. The amphibian group exhibits a high richness in the Dry Chaco, which has been barely studied in relation to land cover changes. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the potential geographic distribution of 10 Leptodactylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae), which are mainly distributed within the Dry Chaco. We characterized these distributions environmentally, analyzed their overlap with land cover classes, and assessed their diversity of ecoregions. Also, we evaluated how these species potential distribution is affected by the transformation of land, and quantified the proportional area of the potential distribution in protected areas. We found that temperature seasonality is the main constraint to the occurrence of the species studied, whose main habitats are savannas, grasslands and croplands. The main threats to these species are the effects of climate change over spatial patterns of seasonality, which could affect their breeding and reproduction mode; the loss of their natural habitat; the exposure to contaminants used by intensive agriculture and their underrepresentation in protected areas. PMID:27833796

Environmental, land cover and land use constraints on the distributional patterns of anurans: Leptodacylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae) from Dry Chaco.

PubMed

Medina, Regina Gabriela; Ponssa, Maria Laura; Aráoz, Ezequiel

2016-01-01

Subtropical dry forests are among the most vulnerable biomes to land transformation at a global scale. Among them, the Dry Chaco suffers an accelerated change due to agriculture expansion and intensification. The Dry Chaco ecoregion is characterized by high levels of endemisms and species diversity, which are the result of a variety of climates and reliefs, allowing a wide variety of environments. The amphibian group exhibits a high richness in the Dry Chaco, which has been barely studied in relation to land cover changes. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the potential geographic distribution of 10 Leptodactylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae), which are mainly distributed within the Dry Chaco. We characterized these distributions environmentally, analyzed their overlap with land cover classes, and assessed their diversity of ecoregions. Also, we evaluated how these species potential distribution is affected by the transformation of land, and quantified the proportional area of the potential distribution in protected areas. We found that temperature seasonality is the main constraint to the occurrence of the species studied, whose main habitats are savannas, grasslands and croplands. The main threats to these species are the effects of climate change over spatial patterns of seasonality, which could affect their breeding and reproduction mode; the loss of their natural habitat; the exposure to contaminants used by intensive agriculture and their underrepresentation in protected areas.

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, E.S.; Edwards, T.C.; Kienast, Felix; Dobbertin, M.; Zimmermann, N.E.

2011-01-01

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates.Location Europe.Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns.Results Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role.Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate-induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Ant Diversity and Distribution along Elevation Gradients in the Australian Wet Tropics: The Importance of Seasonal Moisture Stability.

PubMed

Nowrouzi, Somayeh; Andersen, Alan N; Macfadyen, Sarina; Staunton, Kyran M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Robson, Simon K A

2016-01-01

The threat of anthropogenic climate change has seen a renewed focus on understanding contemporary patterns of species distribution. This is especially the case for the biota of tropical mountains, because tropical species often have particularly narrow elevational ranges and there are high levels of short-range endemism. Here we describe geographic patterns of ant diversity and distribution in the World Heritage-listed rainforests of the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT), revealing seasonal moisture stability to be an important environmental correlate of elevational patterns of species composition. We sampled ants in leaf litter, on the litter surface and on tree trunks at 26 sites from six subregions spanning five degrees of latitude and elevation ranges from 100-1,300 m. A total of 296 species from 63 genera were recorded. Species richness showed a slight peak at mid elevations, and did not vary significantly with latitude. Species composition varied substantially between subregions, and many species have highly localised distributions. There was very marked species turnover with elevation, with a particularly striking compositional disjunction between 600 m and 800 m at each subregion. This disjunction coincides with a strong environmental threshold of seasonal stability in moisture associated with cloud 'stripping'. Our study therefore provides further support for climatic stability as a potential mechanism underlying patterns of diversity. The average height of orographic cloud layers is predicted to rise under global warming, and associated shifts in seasonal moisture stability may exacerbate biotic change caused by rising temperature alone.

Spatial patterns of primary productivity derived from the Dynamic Habitat Indices predict patterns of species richness and distributions in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suttidate, Naparat

Humans are changing the Earth's ecosystems, which has profound consequences for biodiversity. To understand how species respond to these changes, biodiversity science requires accurate assessments of biodiversity. However, biodiversity assessments are still limited in tropical regions. The Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs), derived from satellite data, summarize dynamic patterns of annual primary productivity: (a) cumulative annual productivity, (b) minimum annual productivity, and (c) seasonal variation in productivity. The DHIs have been successfully used in temperate regions, but not yet in the tropics. My goal was to evaluate the importance of primary productivity measured via the DHIs for assessing patterns of species richness and distributions in Thailand. First, I assessed the relationships between the DHIs and tropical bird species richness. I also evaluated the complementarity of the DHIs and topography, climate, latitudinal gradients, habitat heterogeneity, and habitat area in explaining bird species richness. I found that among three DHIs, cumulative annual productivity was the most important factor in explaining bird species richness and that the DHIs outperformed other environmental variables. Second, I developed texture measures derive from DHI cumulative annual productivity, and compared them to habitat composition and fragmentation as predictors of tropical forest bird distributions. I found that adding texture measures to habitat composition and fragmentation models improved the prediction of tropical bird distributions, especially area- and edge-sensitive tropical forest bird species. Third, I predicted the effects of trophic interactions between primary productivity, prey, and predators in relation to habitat connectivity for Indochinese tigers (Panthera tigris). I found that including trophic interactions improved habitat suitability models for tigers. However, tiger habitat is highly fragmented with few dispersal corridors. I also identified potential habitat patches and corridors that could serve as target sites for conservation. In summary, my dissertation reveals the relationship between species diversity and dynamic patterns of primary productivity. The DHIs are effective measures to identify assess broad-scale patterns of biodiversity in tropical ecosystems, and assist conservation planning and resource management. My dissertation research contributes substantially to biodiversity science, and has broad societal relevance, in striving to protect biodiversity and the ecosystem services given rapid environmental changes.

Sediment-hosted contaminants and distribution patterns in the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River Deltas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flocks, James G.; Kindinger, Jack G.; Ferina, Nicholas; Dreher, Chandra

2002-01-01

The Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers transport very large amounts of bedload and suspended sediments to the deltaic and coastal environments of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Absorbed onto these sediments are contaminants that may be detrimental to the environment. To adequately assess the impact of these contaminants it is first necessary to develop an understanding of sediment distribution patterns in these deltaic systems. The distribution patterns are defined by deltaic progradational cycles. Once these patterns are identified, the natural and industrial contaminant inventories and their depositional histories can be reconstructed. Delta progradation is a function of sediment discharge, as well as channel and receiving-basin dimensions. Fluvial energy controls the sediment distribution pattern, resulting in a coarse grained or sandy framework, infilled with finer grained material occupying the overbank, interdistributary bays, wetlands and abandoned channels. It has been shown that these fine-grained sediments can carry contaminants through absorption and intern them in the sediment column or redistribute them depending on progradation or degradation of the delta deposit. Sediment distribution patterns in delta complexes can be determined through high-resolution geophysical surveys and groundtruthed with direct sampling. In the Atchafalaya and Mississippi deltas, remote sensing using High-Resolution Single-Channel Seismic Profiling (HRSP) and Sidescan Sonar was correlated to 20-ft vibracores to develop a near-surface geologic framework that identifies variability in recent sediment distribution patterns. The surveys identified bedload sand waves, abandoned-channel back-fill, prodelta and distributary mouth bars within the most recently active portions of the deltas. These depositional features respond to changes in deltaic processes and through their response may intern or transport absorbed contaminants. Characterizing these features provides insight into the fate of sediment-hosted contaminants.

An eco-evolutionary IBM improves predictions of future geneticconnectivity for American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Crater Lake National Park, Oregon

EPA Science Inventory

In the face of rapid, contemporary climate change, conservationbiologists are relying heavily on species distribution models (SDMs)to predict shifting occupancy and distribution patterns in responseto future conditions. These models are critical tools for assessingvulnerability t...

Environmental impacts on the southern Florida coastal waters: a history of change in Florida Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brewster-Wingard, G. L.; Ishman, S. E.; Holmes, C. W.

1998-01-01

Analyses of four cores located in the northern transitional, eastern, and central portions of Florida Bay reveal historical patterns of change in salinity and seagrass distribution. Salinity and the distribution of seagrass beds are two critical issues for the restoration of Florida Bay. The distribution of benthic fauna in Bob Allen 6A and Russell Bank 19B cores illustrates changes in environmental parameters prior to 1900. Natural fluctuations occur in salinity, but the amplitude of those fluctuations was limited to a 15–20% shift about the mean. Subtle changes occur in the benthic fauna around 1910, but beginning around 1940, the pattern of salinity fluctuation departs substantially from the pre-1900 pattern. Post-1940, the salinity oscillates 40–60% about the mean. This pattern is seen in all indicators measured. Around 1970, a significant but short term decline occurred in salinity. The Taylor Creek T24 core from the northern transitional zone reflects changes in freshwater flow that have occurred during this century. The upper portion of the core records a significant increase in salinity, with a slight decrease occurring in recent years. The Pass Key 37 core represents an area of very high sedimentation rates; an increase in salinity occurs in the upper portion of the core. Natural fluctuations in seagrass distribution are inferred from the shifts in relative abundance of epiphytal species preserved in the cores. All four cores show an increase in epiphytes and therefore in seagrass coverage during this century. An increase also occurs in epiphytal species that can dwell on either Thalassia or macro-algal mats associated with Thalassia beds. These data suggest an increase in algal-mats has occurred during this century. The Bob Allen 6A core records an extensive period during the 1800's of little to no vegetative cover of the substrate based on the near absence of epiphytic species in that segment of the core. Following this period, the epiphytal species increase rapidly in abundance, implying that vegetation may have the ability to disseminate rapidly.

Effects of habitat fragmentation on passerine birds breeding in Intermountain shrubsteppe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knick, S.T.; Rotenberry, J.T.

2002-01-01

Habitat fragmentation and loss strongly influence the distribution and abundance of passerine birds breeding in Intermountain shrubsteppe. Wildfires, human activities, and change in vegetation communities often are synergistic in these systems and can result in radical conversion from shrubland to grasslands dominated by exotic annuals at large temporal and spatial scales from which recovery to native conditions is unlikely. As a result, populations of 5 of the 12 species in our review of Intermountain shrubsteppe birds are undergoing significant declines; 5 species are listed as at-risk or as candidates for protection in at least one state. The process by which fragmentation affects bird distributions in these habitats remains unknown because most research has emphasized the detection of population trends and patterns of habitat associations at relatively large spatial scales. Our research indicates that the distribution of shrubland-obligate species, such as Brewer's Sparrows (Spizella breweri), Sage Sparrows (Amphispiza belli), and Sage Thrashers (Oreoscoptes montanus), was highly sensitive to fragmentation of shrublands at spatial scales larger than individual home ranges. In contrast, the underlying mechanisms for both habitat change and bird population dynamics may operate independently of habitat boundaries. We propose alternative, but not necessarily exclusive, mechanisms to explain the relationship between habitat fragmentation and bird distribution and abundance. Fragmentation might influence productivity through differences in breeding density, nesting success, or predation. However, local and landscape variables were not significant determinants either of success, number fledged, or probability of predation or parasitism (although our tests had relatively low statistical power). Alternatively, relative absence of natal philopatry and redistribution by individuals among habitats following fledging or post-migration could account for the pattern of distribution and abundance. Thus, boundary dynamics may be important in determining the distribution of shrubland-obligate species but insignificant relative to the mechanisms causing the pattern of habitat and bird distribution. Because of the dichotomy in responses, Intermountain shrubsteppe systems present a unique challenge in understanding how landscape composition, configuration, and change influence bird population dynamics.

Development, primacy, and systems of cities.

PubMed

El-shakhs, S

1972-10-01

The relationship between the evolutionary changes in the city size distribution of nationally defined urban systems and the process of socioeconomic development is examined. Attention is directed to the problems of defining and measuring changes in city size distributions, using the results to test empirically the relationship of such changes to the development process. Existing theoretical structures and empirical generalizations which have tried to explain or to describe, respectively, the hierarchical relationships of cities are represented by central place theory and rank size relationships. The problem is not that deviations exist but that an adequate definition is lacking of urban systems on the 1 hand, and a universal measure of city size distribution, which could be applied to any system irrespective of its level of development, on the other. The problem of measuring changes in city size distributions is further compounded by the lack of sufficient reliable information about different systems of cities for the purposes of empirical comparative analysis. Changes in city size distributions have thus far been viewed largely within the framework of classic equilibrium theory. A more differentiated continuum of the development process should replace the bioplar continuum of underdeveloped developed countries in relating changes in city size distribution with development. Implicit in this distinction is the view that processes which influence spatial organization during the early formative stages of development are inherently different from those operating during the more advanced stages. 2 approaches were used to examine the relationship between national levels of development and primacy: a comparative analysis of a large number of countries at a given point in time; and a historical analysis of a limited sample of 2 advanced countries, the US and Great Britain. The 75 countries included in this study cover a wide range of characteristics. The study found a significant association between the degree of primacy of distributions of cities and their socioeconomic level of development; and the form of the primacy curve (or its evolution with development) seemed to follow a consistent pattern in which the peak of primacy obtained during the stages of socioeconomic transition with countries being less primate in either direction from that peak. This pattern is the result of 2 reverse influences of the development process on the spatial structure of countries--centralization and concentration beginning with the rise of cities and a decentralization and spread effect accompanying the increasing influence and importance of the periphery and structural changes in the pattern of authority.

Impacts of climate change on distributions and diversity of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Luo, Zhenhua; Jiang, Zhigang; Tang, Songhua

2015-01-01

Climate change has significant impacts on species' distributions and diversity patterns. Understanding range shifts and changes in richness gradients under climate change is crucial for conservation. The Tibetan Plateau, home to wild yak, chiru, and kiang, contains a biome with many endemic ungulates. It is highly sensitive to climate change and a region that merits particular attention with regard to the impacts of global climate change on its biomes. Maximum entropy approaches were used to estimate current and future potential distributions, in response to climate change, for 22 ungulate species. We used three general circulation (MK3, HADCM3, MIROC3_2-MED) and three emissions scenarios (Bl, A1B, A2) to derive estimated future measurements of 14 environmental variables over three time periods (2020, 2050, 2080), and then modeled species distributions using these predicted environmental measurements for each time period under two dispersal hypotheses (full and zero, respectively). This resulted in a total of 6160 prediction models. We found that these ungulates, on average, may lose 30-50% of their distributional areas, depending on the dispersal scenarios. In addition, 55-68% of the ungulate species were predicted to become locally endangered under the different dispersal assumptions, 23-32% to become locally critically endangered, and 4-7 endemic species to become globally endangered. Furthermore, ungulate species ranges may experience average poleward shifts of ~300 km. We also predict west-to-east reductions in species richness: southeastern mountainous areas currently have the highest species richness, but are predicted to face the greatest diversity losses, whereas the northern areas are predicted to see increasing numbers of ungulate species in the 21st century. Our study indicates much more severe range reductions of ungulates on the Tibetan Plateau than those anticipated elsewhere in the world, and species richness patterns will change dramatically with climate change. For conservation, we suggest (1) securing existing protected areas, and (2) establishing new nature reserves to counterbalance climate change impacts.

Demographic patterns of a widespread long-lived tree are associated with rainfall and disturbances along rainfall gradients in SE Australia

PubMed Central

Cohn, Janet S; Lunt, Ian D; Bradstock, Ross A; Hua, Quan; McDonald, Simon

2013-01-01

Predicting species distributions with changing climate has often relied on climatic variables, but increasingly there is recognition that disturbance regimes should also be included in distribution models. We examined how changes in rainfall and disturbances along climatic gradients determined demographic patterns in a widespread and long-lived tree species, Callitris glaucophylla in SE Australia. We examined recruitment since 1950 in relation to annual (200–600 mm) and seasonal (summer, uniform, winter) rainfall gradients, edaphic factors (topography), and disturbance regimes (vertebrate grazing [tenure and species], fire). A switch from recruitment success to failure occurred at 405 mm mean annual rainfall, coincident with a change in grazing regime. Recruitment was lowest on farms with rabbits below 405 mm rainfall (mean = 0–0.89 cohorts) and highest on less-disturbed tenures with no rabbits above 405 mm rainfall (mean = 3.25 cohorts). Moderate levels of recruitment occurred where farms had no rabbits or less disturbed tenures had rabbits above and below 405 mm rainfall (mean = 1.71–1.77 cohorts). These results show that low annual rainfall and high levels of introduced grazing has led to aging, contracting populations, while higher annual rainfall with low levels of grazing has led to younger, expanding populations. This study demonstrates how demographic patterns vary with rainfall and spatial variations in disturbances, which are linked in complex ways to climatic gradients. Predicting changes in tree distribution with climate change requires knowledge of how rainfall and key disturbances (tenure, vertebrate grazing) will shift along climatic gradients. PMID:23919160

Investigation of Essential Element Distribution in the Equine Metacarpophalangeal Joint using a Synchrotron Radiation Micro X-Ray Fluorescence Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaabar, Wejdan; Gundogdu, O.; Tzaphlidou, M.; Janousch, M.; Attenburrow, D.; Bradley, D. A.

2008-05-01

In articular cartilage, Ca, P, K and S are among some of the well known co-factors of the metalloproteinases enzymatic family, the latter playing a pivotal role in the growth and degeneration of the collagenous bone-cartilage interface of articulating joints. Current study forms part of a larger investigation concerning the distribution of these and other key elements in such media. For the purpose of evaluating these low atomic number elements (Z⩽20), use was made of the capabilities of the LUCIA Station, located at the synchrotron facility of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI). Using an incident radiation energy of 4.06 keV, a synchrotron radiation micro x-ray fluorescence (SR-μXRF) technique was applied in examining the distribution of the essential elements Ca, P, K and S in the bone-cartilage interface of both healthy and diseased (osteoarthritic) areas of an equine metacarpophalangeal joint. The SR-μXRF mappings and line profile patterns have revealed remarkable changes in both the pattern and absolute distributions of these elements, agreeing with the findings of others. The elemental presence shown in the individual area scans encompassing the lesion each reflect the visibly abraded outer surface of the cartilage and change in shape of the bone surface. One of the area scans for the bone-cartilage interface shows a marked change in both the pattern and absolute elemental presence for all three elements compared to that observed at two other scan sites. The observation of change in bone cartilage composition around the surface of the articulating joint is thought to be novel, the variation being almost certainly due to the differing weight-bearing role of the subchondral bone at each location.

Investigation of Essential Element Distribution in the Equine Metacarpophalangeal Joint using a Synchrotron Radiation Micro X-Ray Fluorescence Technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaabar, Wejdan; Gundogdu, O.; Attenburrow, D.

2008-05-20

In articular cartilage, Ca, P, K and S are among some of the well known co-factors of the metalloproteinases enzymatic family, the latter playing a pivotal role in the growth and degeneration of the collagenous bone-cartilage interface of articulating joints. Current study forms part of a larger investigation concerning the distribution of these and other key elements in such media. For the purpose of evaluating these low atomic number elements (Z{<=}20), use was made of the capabilities of the LUCIA Station, located at the synchrotron facility of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI). Using an incident radiation energy of 4.06 keV,more » a synchrotron radiation micro x-ray fluorescence (SR-{mu}XRF) technique was applied in examining the distribution of the essential elements Ca, P, K and S in the bone-cartilage interface of both healthy and diseased (osteoarthritic) areas of an equine metacarpophalangeal joint. The SR-{mu}XRF mappings and line profile patterns have revealed remarkable changes in both the pattern and absolute distributions of these elements, agreeing with the findings of others. The elemental presence shown in the individual area scans encompassing the lesion each reflect the visibly abraded outer surface of the cartilage and change in shape of the bone surface. One of the area scans for the bone-cartilage interface shows a marked change in both the pattern and absolute elemental presence for all three elements compared to that observed at two other scan sites. The observation of change in bone cartilage composition around the surface of the articulating joint is thought to be novel, the variation being almost certainly due to the differing weight-bearing role of the subchondral bone at each locati0008.« less

Characterizing climate change impacts on human exposures to air pollutants

EPA Science Inventory

Human exposures to air pollutants such as ozone (O3) have the potential to be altered by changes in climate through multiple factors that drive population exposures, including: ambient pollutant concentrations, human activity patterns, population sizes and distributions, and hous...

Beach Nourishment Dynamics in a Coupled Large-Scale Coastal Change and Economic Optimization Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D. E.; Murray, B.; Smith, M.

2008-12-01

Global climate change is predicted to have significant consequences for shoreline evolution from both sea level rise and changing wave climates. Because many coastal communities actively defend against erosion, changing environmental conditions will influence rates of nourishment. Over large coastal regions, including many towns, the anticipated future rate of nourishment is assumed to be proportional to the expected evolution of the shoreline in the region. This view neglects the possibility of strong coupling between the spatial patterns of nourishment and the distribution of property values within the region. To explore the impact of this coupling, we present a numerical model that incorporates the physical forces of alongshore sediment transport and erosion due to sea level rise as well as the economic forces that drive beach replenishment including the economic benefits of enhanced or maintained beach width and the costs of replenishing. Results are presented for a Carolina-like coastline and show how natural shoreline change rates are altered as the wave climate changes (because of changing storm behaviors). Results also show that the nourishment rate is conserved for varying property value distributions when the nourishment cost is unrelated to past nourishment and, in contrast, increasing nourishment cost as available sand for nourishment is depleted causes strong coupling between the property value distribution and erosion patterns. This strong coupling significantly alters the rate of nourishment and hence the depletion of available sand for nourishing.

Biotic and abiotic factors influencing zooplankton vertical distribution in Lake Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nowicki, Carly J.; Bunnell, David B.; Armenio, Patricia M.; Warner, David M.; Vanderploeg, Henry A.; Cavaletto, Joann F.; Mayer, Christine M.; Adams, Jean V.

2017-01-01

The vertical distribution of zooplankton can have substantial influence on trophic structure in freshwater systems, particularly by determining spatial overlap for predator/prey dynamics and influencing energy transfer. The zooplankton community in some of the Laurentian Great Lakes has undergone changes in composition and declines in total biomass, especially after 2003. Mechanisms underlying these zooplankton changes remain poorly understood, in part, because few studies have described their vertical distributions during daytime and nighttime conditions or evaluated the extent to which predation, resources, or environmental conditions could explain their distribution patterns. Within multiple 24-h periods during July through October 2012 in Lake Huron, we conducted daytime and nighttime sampling of zooplankton, and measured food (chlorophyll-a), temperature, light (Secchi disk depth), and planktivory (biomass of Bythotrephes longimanus and Mysis diluviana). We used linear mixed models to determine whether the densities for 22 zooplankton taxa varied between day and night in the epi-, meta-, and hypolimnion. For eight taxa, higher epilimnetic densities were observed at night than during the day; general linear models revealed these patterns were best explained by Mysis diluviana (four taxa), Secchi disk depth (three taxa), epilimnetic water temperature (three taxa), chlorophyll (one taxon), and biomass of Bythotrephes longimanus (one taxon). By investigating the potential effects of both biotic and abiotic variables on the vertical distribution of crustacean zooplankton and rotifers, we provide descriptions of the Lake Huron zooplankton community and discuss how future changes in food web dynamics or climate change may alter zooplankton distribution in freshwater environments.

Research on reconstructing spatial distribution of historical cropland over 300 years in traditional cultivated regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xuhong; Jin, Xiaobin; Guo, Beibei; Long, Ying; Zhou, Yinkang

2015-05-01

Constructing a spatially explicit time series of historical cultivated land is of upmost importance for climatic and ecological studies that make use of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) data. Some scholars have made efforts to simulate and reconstruct the quantitative information on historical land use at the global or regional level based on "top-down" decision-making behaviors to match overall cropland area to land parcels using land arability and universal parameters. Considering the concentrated distribution of cultivated land and various factors influencing cropland distribution, including environmental and human factors, this study developed a "bottom-up" model of historical cropland based on constrained Cellular Automaton (CA). Our model takes a historical cropland area as an external variable and the cropland distribution in 1980 as the maximum potential scope of historical cropland. We selected elevation, slope, water availability, average annual precipitation, and distance to the nearest rural settlement as the main influencing factors of land use suitability. Then, an available labor force index is used as a proxy for the amount of cropland to inspect and calibrate these spatial patterns. This paper applies the model to a traditional cultivated region in China and reconstructs its spatial distribution of cropland during 6 periods. The results are shown as follows: (1) a constrained CA is well suited for simulating and reconstructing the spatial distribution of cropland in China's traditional cultivated region. (2) Taking the different factors affecting spatial pattern of cropland into consideration, the partitioning of the research area effectively reflected the spatial differences in cropland evolution rules and rates. (3) Compared with "HYDE datasets", this research has formed higher-resolution Boolean spatial distribution datasets of historical cropland with a more definitive concept of spatial pattern in terms of fractional format. We conclude that our reconstruction is closer to the actual change pattern of the traditional cultivated region in China.

Changes of the time-varying percentiles of daily extreme temperature in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin; Chen, Fang; Xu, Feng; Wang, Xinrui

2017-11-01

Identifying the air temperature frequency distributions and evaluating the trends in time-varying percentiles are very important for climate change studies. In order to get a better understanding of the recent temporal and spatial pattern of the temperature changes in China, we have calculated the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature firstly. Then we divide all the stations to get the spatial patterns for the percentile trends using the average linkage cluster analysis method. To make a comparison, the shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 are also examined. Important results in three aspects have been achieved: (1) In terms of the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature, the most intense warming for daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) was detected in the upper percentiles with a significant increasing tendency magnitude (>2.5 °C/50year), and the greatest warming for daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) occurred with very strong trends exceeding 4 °C/50year. (2) The relative coherent spatial patterns for the percentile trends were found, and stations for the whole country had been divided into three clusters. The three primary clusters were distributed regularly to some extent from north to south, indicating the possible large influence of the latitude. (3) The most significant shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 was found in Tmax. More than half part of the frequency distribution show negative trends less than -0.5 °C/50year in 1961-1985, while showing trends less than 2.5 °C/50year in 1986-2010.

Role of endothelial permeability hotspots and endothelial mitosis in determining age-related patterns of macromolecule uptake by the rabbit aortic wall near branch points.

PubMed

Chooi, K Yean; Comerford, Andrew; Cremers, Stephanie J; Weinberg, Peter D

2016-07-01

Transport of macromolecules between plasma and the arterial wall plays a key role in atherogenesis. Scattered hotspots of elevated endothelial permeability to macromolecules occur in the aorta; a fraction of them are associated with dividing cells. Hotspots occur particularly frequently downstream of branch points, where lesions develop in young rabbits and children. However, the pattern of lesions varies with age, and can be explained by similar variation in the pattern of macromolecule uptake. We investigated whether patterns of hotspots and mitosis also change with age. Evans' Blue dye-labeled albumin was injected intravenously into immature or mature rabbits and its subsequent distribution in the aortic wall around intercostal branch ostia examined by confocal microscopy and automated image analysis. Mitosis was detected by immunofluorescence after adding 5-bromo-2-deoxiuridine to drinking water. Hotspots were most frequent downstream of branches in immature rabbits, but a novel distribution was observed in mature rabbits. Neither pattern was explained by mitosis. Hotspot uptake correlated spatially with the much greater non-hotspot uptake (p < 0.05), and the same pattern was seen when only the largest hotspots were considered. The pattern of hotspots changes with age. The data are consistent with there being a continuum of local permeabilities rather than two distinct mechanisms. The distribution of the dye, which binds to elastin and collagen, was similar to that of non-binding tracers and to lesions apart from a paucity at the lateral margins of branches that can be explained by lower levels of fibrous proteins in those regions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Climate change and Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae): Impacts of temperature and carbon dioxide on life history

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is relevant to life around the globe. A rise in ambient temperature and CO2 may have various impacts on arthropods such as altered life cycles, modified reproductive patterns, and changes in distribution. The sweetpotato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius), is a global agricultural...

Using biogeographic distributions and natural history to predict marine/estuarine species at risk to climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Effects of climate change on marine and estuarine species will vary with attributes of the species and the spatial patterns of environmental change at the habitat and global scales. To better predict which species are at greatest risk, we are developing a knowledge base of specie...

Historic changes in fish assemblage structure in midwestern nonwadeable rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parks, Timothy P.; Quist, Michael C.; Pierce, Clay L.

2014-01-01

Historical change in fish assemblage structure was evaluated in the mainstems of the Des Moines, Iowa, Cedar, Wapsipinicon, and Maquoketa rivers, in Iowa. Fish occurrence data were compared in each river between historical and recent time periods to characterize temporal changes among 126 species distributions and assess spatiotemporal patterns in faunal similarity. A resampling procedure was used to estimate species occurrences in rivers during each assessment period and changes in species occurrence were summarized. Spatiotemporal shifts in species composition were analyzed at the river and river section scale using cluster analysis, pairwise Jaccard's dissimilarities, and analysis of multivariate beta dispersion. The majority of species exhibited either increases or declines in distribution in all rivers with the exception of several “unknown” or inconclusive trends exhibited by species in the Maquoketa River. Cluster analysis identified temporal patterns of similarity among fish assemblages in the Des Moines, Cedar, and Iowa rivers within the historical and recent assessment period indicating a significant change in species composition. Prominent declines of backwater species with phytophilic spawning strategies contributed to assemblage changes occurring across river systems.

Orbscan II anterior elevation changes following corneal collagen cross-linking treatment for keratoconus.

PubMed

Tu, Kyaw Lin; Aslanides, Ioannis M

2009-08-01

To analyze anterior corneal elevation changes on Orbscan II following corneal collagen cross-linking (CXL) with riboflavin. This retrospective study included 8 patients (14 eyes) with keratoconus who underwent CXL, with a mean follow-up of 7 months (range: 5 to 10 months). Pre- and postoperative (at last clinic attendance) anterior elevation difference maps were examined for overall patterns of change. On preoperative maps, distances from maximum anterior elevation to pupil center and to topographic geometric center were compared between the two patterns identified. Pre- and postoperative topography, best spectacle-corrected visual acuity (BSCVA), and refraction were also compared between the two patterns. Two patterns of anterior elevation change were visually identified: (1) paracentral steepening, no change, or flattening centrally; and (2) central steepening. The preoperative maps of eyes that manifested pattern 1 had shorter mean distances for maximum anterior elevation to pupil center (1.70 vs. 2.27 mm) and maximum anterior elevation to geometric center (1.45 vs. 1.99 mm) than those that resulted in pattern 2. Mean maximum topographic simulated keratometry decreased (P = .004) and mean irregularity indices at 3 mm (P =.03) and 5 mm (P =.04) were reduced postoperatively in pattern 1 eyes; all increased in pattern 2 eyes. Mean BSCVA improved postoperatively for both patterns. Mean preoperative myopia decreased in pattern 1 eyes by 0.44 diopters (D), whereas it increased for pattern 2 eyes by 1.83 D. Corneal shape change influenced by anisotropy of collagen distribution is a factor in the outcome of CXL treatment for keratoconus.

Dynamic Laser-Light Scattering Study on Bacterial Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miike, Hidetoshi; Hideshima, Masao; Hashimoto, Hajime; Ebina, Yoshio

1984-08-01

The motility changes in growing bacteria in a culture medium were observed with a dynamic light-scattering technique used to analyse the frequency spectrum of the scattered light intensity. Two typical enterobacteriaceae, E. coil and P. morganii, were examined, and the change in the velocity distribution of the bacteria with time was analysed using the observed spectrum. The distribution pattern was found to change from a Gaussian-type to a Saclay-type with time, and the mean speed of the bacteria had a maximum value at around the turning point of the growth curve.

Spatio-Temporal Change Modeling of Lulc: a Semantic Kriging Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharjee, S.; Ghosh, S. K.

2015-07-01

Spatio-temporal land-use/ land-cover (LULC) change modeling is important to forecast the future LULC distribution, which may facilitate natural resource management, urban planning, etc. The spatio-temporal change in LULC trend often exhibits non-linear behavior, due to various dynamic factors, such as, human intervention (e.g., urbanization), environmental factors, etc. Hence, proper forecasting of LULC distribution should involve the study and trend modeling of historical data. Existing literatures have reported that the meteorological attributes (e.g., NDVI, LST, MSI), are semantically related to the terrain. Being influenced by the terrestrial dynamics, the temporal changes of these attributes depend on the LULC properties. Hence, incorporating meteorological knowledge into the temporal prediction process may help in developing an accurate forecasting model. This work attempts to study the change in inter-annual LULC pattern and the distribution of different meteorological attributes of a region in Kolkata (a metropolitan city in India) during the years 2000-2010 and forecast the future spread of LULC using semantic kriging (SemK) approach. A new variant of time-series SemK is proposed, namely Rev-SemKts to capture the multivariate semantic associations between different attributes. From empirical analysis, it may be observed that the augmentation of semantic knowledge in spatio-temporal modeling of meteorological attributes facilitate more precise forecasting of LULC pattern.

Application of a time-dependent coalescence process for inferring the history of population size changes from DNA sequence data.

PubMed

Polanski, A; Kimmel, M; Chakraborty, R

1998-05-12

Distribution of pairwise differences of nucleotides from data on a sample of DNA sequences from a given segment of the genome has been used in the past to draw inferences about the past history of population size changes. However, all earlier methods assume a given model of population size changes (such as sudden expansion), parameters of which (e.g., time and amplitude of expansion) are fitted to the observed distributions of nucleotide differences among pairwise comparisons of all DNA sequences in the sample. Our theory indicates that for any time-dependent population size, N(tau) (in which time tau is counted backward from present), a time-dependent coalescence process yields the distribution, p(tau), of the time of coalescence between two DNA sequences randomly drawn from the population. Prediction of p(tau) and N(tau) requires the use of a reverse Laplace transform known to be unstable. Nevertheless, simulated data obtained from three models of monotone population change (stepwise, exponential, and logistic) indicate that the pattern of a past population size change leaves its signature on the pattern of DNA polymorphism. Application of the theory to the published mtDNA sequences indicates that the current mtDNA sequence variation is not inconsistent with a logistic growth of the human population.

The Post-Glacial Species Velocity of Picea glauca following the Last Glacial Maximum in Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, B. D.; Napier, J.; Kelly, R.; Li, B.; Heath, K.; Hug, B.; Hu, F.; Greenberg, J. A.

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is leading to dramatic fluctuations to Earth's biodiversity that has not been observed since past interglacial periods. There is rising concern that Earth's warming climate will have significant impacts to current species ranges and the ability of a species to persist in a rapidly changing environment. The paleorecord provides information on past species distributions in relation to climate change, which can illuminate the patterns of potential future distributions of species. Particularly in areas where there are multiple potential limiting factors on a species' range, e.g. temperature, radiation, and evaporative demand, the spatial patterns of species migrations may be particularly complex. In this study, we assessed the change in the distributions of white spruce (Picea glauca) from the Last Glacial Maxima (LGM) to present-day for the entire state of Alaska. To accomplish this, we created species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated from modern vegetation data and high-resolution, downscaled climate surfaces at 60m. These SDMs were applied to downscaled modern and paleoclimate surfaces to produce estimated ranges of white spruce during the LGM and today. From this, we assessed the "species velocity", the rate at which white spruce would need to migrate to keep pace with climate change, with the goal of determining whether the expansion from the LGM to today originated from microclimate refugia. Higher species velocities indicate locations where climate changed drastically and white spruce would have needed to migrate rapidly to persist and avoid local extinction. Conversely, lower species velocities indicated locations where the local climate was changing less rapidly or was within the center of the range of white spruce, and indicated locations where white spruce distributions were unlikely to have changed significantly. Our results indicate the importance of topographic complexity in buffering the effects of climate change, particularly near the edges of the species' range.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Evolutionary history of Lissotriton helveticus: multilocus assessment of ancestral vs. recent colonization of the Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Recuero, Ernesto; García-París, Mario

2011-07-01

The Pleistocene was characterized by climatic changes that greatly altered the distribution of organisms. Population extinctions, bottlenecks, isolation, range expansions and contractions were often associated with glaciations, leaving signatures in the spatial patterns of genetic diversity across species. Lissotriton helveticus belongs to a Pan-European lineage of newts that were strongly affected by glaciations and represent an excellent model to analyse the effect of generalized climatic changes in phylogeographic patterns. We studied the genetic diversity of the species using data from two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes analyzed in a Bayesian phylogenetic framework to investigate the historical processes shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity. Mitochondrial haplotypes cluster in four different groups present in the Iberian Peninsula and of Pleistocene origin, probably by allopatric fragmentation. Nuclear genes present no obvious geographic structure patterns, suggesting gene flow and generalized incomplete lineage sorting. Populations north of the Pyrenees are closely related to those from northeastern Iberia, suggesting recent range expansion from this region. Historical demographic analyses indicate a demographic expansion starting about 100,000years ago and more recent population declines. Compared to other Lissotriton species, L. helveticus includes only relatively young genetic lineages, suggesting a Central European pre-Pleistocene distribution followed by complete extirpation of the species during glaciations in that area. Historical demographic trends in the Iberian Peninsula are reversed with respect to the more Mediterranean species Lissotriton boscai, indicating different responses of both species to climate changes. Diversity patterns among Lissotriton species seem to be defined by four main factors: ancestral distributions, colonization capabilities, interactions with other species and effective population sizes. Differences in these factors define two types of species, referred to as "R" (refugia) and "S" (sanctuaries) that explain part of the diversity in patterns of genetic diversity created by glaciations in Western Europe. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic models of farmers adaptation to climate change (case of rice farmers in Cemoro Watershed, Central Java, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugihardjo; Sutrisno, J.; Setyono, P.; Suntoro

2018-03-01

Farming activities are generally very sensitive to climate change variations. Global climate change will result in changes of patterns and distribution of rainfall. The impact of changing patterns and distribution of rainfall is the occurrence of early season shifts and periods of planting. Therefore, farmers need to adapt to the occurrence of climate change to avoid the decrease productivity on the farm land. This study aims to examine the impacts of climate change adaptation that farmers practiced on the farming productivity. The analysis is conducted dynamically using the Powersim 2.5. The result of analysis shows that the use of Planting Calendar and Integrated Crops Management technology can increase the rice productivity of certain area unity. Both technologies are the alternatives for farmers to adapt to climate change. Both farmers who adapt to climate change and do not adapt to climate change, experience an increase in rice production, time after time. However, farmers who adapt to climate change, increase their production faster than farmers who do not adapt to climate change. The use of the Planting Calendar and Integrated Crops Management strategy together as a farmers’ adaptation strategy is able to increase production compared to non-adaptive farmers.

Time of Day and Day of Week Trends in EMS Demand.

PubMed

Cantwell, Kate; Morgans, Amee; Smith, Karen; Livingston, Michael; Spelman, Tim; Dietze, Paul

2015-01-01

We examined temporal variations in overall Emergency Medical Services (EMS) demand, as well as medical and trauma cases separately. We analyzed cases according to time of day and day of week to determine whether population level demand demonstrates temporal patterns that will increase baseline knowledge for EMS planning. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the Ambulance Victoria data warehouse covering the period 2008-2011. We included all cases of EMS attendance which resulted in 1,203,803 cases for review. Data elements comprised age, gender, date and time of call to the EMS emergency number along with the clinical condition of the patient. We employed Poisson regression to analyze case numbers and trigonometric regression to quantify distribution patterns. EMS demand exhibited a bimodal distribution with the highest peak at 10:00 and a second smaller peak at 19:00. The highest number of cases occurred on Fridays, and the lowest on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. However, the distribution of cases throughout the day differed by day of week. Distribution patterns on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays differed significantly from the rest of the week (p < 0.001). When categorized into medical or trauma cases, medical cases were more frequent during working hours and involved patients of higher mean age (57 years vs. 49 years for trauma, p < 0.001). Trauma cases peaked on Friday and Saturday nights around midnight. Day of week EMS demand distribution patterns reveal differences that can be masked in aggregate data. Day of week EMS demand distribution patterns showed not only which days have differences in demand but the times of day at which the demand changes. Patterns differed by case type as well. These differences in distribution are important for EMS demand planning. Increased understanding of EMS demand patterns is imperative in a climate of ever-increasing demand and fiscal constraints. Further research is needed into the effect of age and case type on EMS demand.

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species’ distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr−1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities. PMID:27504632

Sandy beaches: state of the art of nematode ecology.

PubMed

Maria, Tatiana F; Vanaverbeke, Jan; Vanreusel, Ann; Esteves, André M

2016-01-01

In this review, we summarize existing knowledge of the ecology of sandy-beach nematodes, in relation to spatial distribution, food webs, pollution and climate change. We attempt to discuss spatial scale patterns (macro-, meso- and microscale) according to their degree of importance in structuring sandy-beach nematode assemblages. This review will provide a substantial background on current knowledge of sandy-beach nematodes, and can be used as a starting point to delineate further investigations in this field. Over decades, sandy beaches have been the scene of studies focusing on community and population ecology, both related to morphodynamic models. The combination of physical factors (e.g. grain size, tidal exposure) and biological interactions (e.g. trophic relationships) is responsible for the spatial distribution of nematodes. In other words, the physical factors are more important in structuring nematodes communities over large scale of distribution while biological interactions are largely important in finer-scale distributions. It has been accepted that biological interactions are assumed to be of minor importance because physical factors overshadow the biological interactions in sandy beach sediments; however, the most recent results from in-situ and ex-situ experimental investigations on behavior and biological factors on a microscale have shown promise for understanding the mechanisms underlying larger-scale patterns and processes. Besides nematodes are very promising organisms used to understand the effects of pollution and climate changes although these subjects are less studied in sandy beaches than distribution patterns.

Positive and Negative Feedbacks and Free-Scale Pattern Distribution in Rural-Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Alados, Concepción L.; Errea, Paz; Gartzia, Maite; Saiz, Hugo; Escós, Juan

2014-01-01

Depopulation of rural areas is a widespread phenomenon that has occurred in most industrialized countries, and has contributed significantly to a reduction in the productivity of agro-ecological resources. In this study, we identified the main trends in the dynamics of rural populations in the Central Pyrenees in the 20th C and early 21st C, and used density independent and density dependent models and identified the main factors that have influenced the dynamics. In addition, we investigated the change in the power law distribution of population size in those periods. Populations exhibited density-dependent positive feedback between 1960 and 2010, and a long-term positive correlation between agricultural activity and population size, which has resulted in a free-scale population distribution that has been disrupted by the collapse of the traditional agricultural society and by emigration to the industrialized cities. We concluded that complex socio-ecological systems that have strong feedback mechanisms can contribute to disruptive population collapses, which can be identified by changes in the pattern of population distribution. PMID:25474704

Unravelling a biogeographical knot: origin of the 'leapfrog' distribution pattern of Australo-Papuan sooty owls (Strigiformes) and logrunners (Passeriformes).

PubMed Central

Norman, J A; Christidis, L; Joseph, L; Slikas, B; Alpers, D

2002-01-01

Molecular analysis of two Australo-Papuan rainforest birds exhibiting correlated 'leapfrog' patterns were used to elucidate the evolutionary origin of this unusual pattern of geographical differentiation. In both sooty owls (Tyto) and logrunners (Orthonyx), phenotypically similar populations occupy widely disjunct areas (central-eastern Australia and upland New Guinea) with a third, highly distinctive population, occurring between them in northeastern Queensland. Two mechanisms have been proposed to explain the origin of leapfrog patterns in avian distributions: recent shared ancestry of terminal populations and unequal rates or phenotypic change among populations. As the former should generate correlated patterns of phenotypic and genetic differentiation, we tested for a sister relationship between populations from New Guinea and central-eastern Australia using nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequences. The resulting phylogenies not only refute recent ancestry as an explanation for the leapfrog pattern, but provide evidence of vastly different spatio-temporal histories for sooty owls and logrunners within the Australo-Papuan rainforests. This incongruence indicates that the evolutionary processes responsible for generating leapfrog patterns in these co-distributed taxa are complex, possibly involving a combination of selection and drift in sooty owls and convergence or retention of ancestral characteristics in logrunners. PMID:12396487

Alpine bird distributions along elevation gradients: the consistency of climate and habitat effects across geographic regions.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Dan; Brambilla, Mattia; Caprio, Enrico; Pedrini, Paolo; Rolando, Antonio

2016-08-01

Many species have shown recent shifts in their distributions in response to climate change. Patterns in species occurrence or abundance along altitudinal gradients often serve as the basis for detecting such changes and assessing future sensitivity. Quantifying the distribution of species along altitudinal gradients acts as a fundamental basis for future studies on environmental change impacts, but in order for models of altitudinal distribution to have wide applicability, it is necessary to know the extent to which altitudinal trends in occurrence are consistent across geographically separated areas. This was assessed by fitting models of bird species occurrence across altitudinal gradients in relation to habitat and climate variables in two geographically separated alpine regions, Piedmont and Trentino. The ten species studied showed non-random altitudinal distributions which in most cases were consistent across regions in terms of pattern. Trends in relation to altitude and differences between regions could be explained mostly by habitat or a combination of habitat and climate variables. Variation partitioning showed that most variation explained by the models was attributable to habitat, or habitat and climate together, rather than climate alone or geographic region. The shape and position of the altitudinal distribution curve is important as it can be related to vulnerability where the available space is limited, i.e. where mountains are not of sufficient altitude for expansion. This study therefore suggests that incorporating habitat and climate variables should be sufficient to construct models with high transferability for many alpine species.

Detection and recognition of analytes based on their crystallization patterns

DOEpatents

Morozov, Victor [Manassas, VA; Bailey, Charles L [Cross Junction, VA; Vsevolodov, Nikolai N [Kensington, MD; Elliott, Adam [Manassas, VA

2008-05-06

The invention contemplates a method for recognition of proteins and other biological molecules by imaging morphology, size and distribution of crystalline and amorphous dry residues in droplets (further referred to as "crystallization pattern") containing predetermined amount of certain crystal-forming organic compounds (reporters) to which protein to be analyzed is added. It has been shown that changes in the crystallization patterns of a number of amino-acids can be used as a "signature" of a protein added. It was also found that both the character of changer in the crystallization patter and the fact of such changes can be used as recognition elements in analysis of protein molecules.

Comparative Phylogeography of a Coevolved Community: Concerted Population Expansions in Joshua Trees and Four Yucca Moths

PubMed Central

Smith, Christopher Irwin; Tank, Shantel; Godsoe, William; Levenick, Jim; Strand, Eva; Esque, Todd; Pellmyr, Olle

2011-01-01

Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community – Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial period, and the inferred demographic changes substantially predate Holocene climate changes. PMID:22028785

Empirical analysis on the runners' velocity distribution in city marathons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zhenquan; Meng, Fan

2018-01-01

In recent decades, much researches have been performed on human temporal activity and mobility patterns, while few investigations have been made to examine the features of the velocity distributions of human mobility patterns. In this paper, we investigated empirically the velocity distributions of finishers in New York City marathon, American Chicago marathon, Berlin marathon and London marathon. By statistical analyses on the datasets of the finish time records, we captured some statistical features of human behaviors in marathons: (1) The velocity distributions of all finishers and of partial finishers in the fastest age group both follow log-normal distribution; (2) In the New York City marathon, the velocity distribution of all male runners in eight 5-kilometer internal timing courses undergoes two transitions: from log-normal distribution at the initial stage (several initial courses) to the Gaussian distribution at the middle stage (several middle courses), and to log-normal distribution at the last stage (several last courses); (3) The intensity of the competition, which is described by the root-mean-square value of the rank changes of all runners, goes weaker from initial stage to the middle stage corresponding to the transition of the velocity distribution from log-normal distribution to Gaussian distribution, and when the competition gets stronger in the last course of the middle stage, there will come a transition from Gaussian distribution to log-normal one at last stage. This study may enrich the researches on human mobility patterns and attract attentions on the velocity features of human mobility.

Pulse Check: Trends in Drug Abuse, Mid-Year 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meth, Marcia; Chalmers, Rebecca; Bassin, Gail

This report serves as a source of information on drug abuse and drug markets. It aims to describe drug-abusing populations; emerging drugs; new routes of administration; varying use patterns; changing demand for treatment; drug-related criminal activity; and shifts in supply and distribution patterns. It is not designed to be used as a law…

Postglacial recolonization shaped the genetic diversity of the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) in Europe

Treesearch

Jeremy C. Andersen; Nathan P. Havill; Adalgisa Caccone; Joseph S. Elkinton

2017-01-01

Changes in climate conditions, particularly during the Quaternary climatic oscillations, have long been recognized to be important for shaping patterns of species diversity. For species residing in the western Palearctic, two commonly observed genetic patterns resulting from these cycles are as follows: (1) that the numbers and distributions of genetic lineages...

Ant Diversity and Distribution along Elevation Gradients in the Australian Wet Tropics: The Importance of Seasonal Moisture Stability

PubMed Central

Nowrouzi, Somayeh; Andersen, Alan N.; Macfadyen, Sarina; Staunton, Kyran M.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Robson, Simon K. A.

2016-01-01

The threat of anthropogenic climate change has seen a renewed focus on understanding contemporary patterns of species distribution. This is especially the case for the biota of tropical mountains, because tropical species often have particularly narrow elevational ranges and there are high levels of short-range endemism. Here we describe geographic patterns of ant diversity and distribution in the World Heritage-listed rainforests of the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT), revealing seasonal moisture stability to be an important environmental correlate of elevational patterns of species composition. We sampled ants in leaf litter, on the litter surface and on tree trunks at 26 sites from six subregions spanning five degrees of latitude and elevation ranges from 100–1,300 m. A total of 296 species from 63 genera were recorded. Species richness showed a slight peak at mid elevations, and did not vary significantly with latitude. Species composition varied substantially between subregions, and many species have highly localised distributions. There was very marked species turnover with elevation, with a particularly striking compositional disjunction between 600 m and 800 m at each subregion. This disjunction coincides with a strong environmental threshold of seasonal stability in moisture associated with cloud ‘stripping’. Our study therefore provides further support for climatic stability as a potential mechanism underlying patterns of diversity. The average height of orographic cloud layers is predicted to rise under global warming, and associated shifts in seasonal moisture stability may exacerbate biotic change caused by rising temperature alone. PMID:27073848

Stability and change in the distribution of cytospecies of the Simulium damnosum complex (Diptera: Simuliidae) in southern Ghana from 1971 to 2011.

PubMed

Post, Rory J; Cheke, Robert A; Boakye, Daniel A; Wilson, Michael D; Osei-Atweneboana, Mike Y; Tetteh-Kumah, Anthony; Lamberton, Poppy Hl; Crainey, J Lee; Yaméogo, Laurent; Basáñez, María-Gloria

2013-07-13

Simulium damnosum s.l., the most important vector of onchocerciasis in Africa, is a complex of sibling species that have been described on the basis of differences in their larval polytene chromosomes. These (cyto) species differ in their geographical distributions, ecologies and epidemiological roles. In Ghana, distributional changes have been recorded as a consequence of vector control and environmental change (e.g. deforestation), with potential disease consequences. We review the distribution of cytospecies in southern Ghana and report changes observed with reference to historical data collated from 1971 to 2005 and new identifications made between 2006 and 2011. Larvae were collected from riverine breeding sites, fixed in Carnoy's solution and chromosome preparations made. Cytotaxonomic identifications from 1,232 samples (including 49 new samples) were analysed. We report long-term stability in cytospecies distribution in the rivers Afram, Akrum, Pawnpawn and Pru. For the rivers Oda, Ofin and Tano we describe (for the first time) patterns of distribution. We could not detect cytospecies composition changes in the upper Pra, and the lower Pra seems to have been stable. The elimination of the Djodji form of S. sanctipauli in the Volta Region seems to have had no long-term effects on the distribution of the other cytospecies, despite an initial surge by S. yahense. There has been a recent increase in the occurrence of savannah cytospecies in the river Asukawkaw, and this might be related to continuing deforestation. Cytospecies' distributions have not been stable from 1971 to 2011. Although there are no obvious causes for the temporary appearance and subsequent disappearance of cytospecies in a particular location, a major influence has been vector control and migration patterns, probably explaining observed changes on the Black Volta and lower Volta rivers. Deforestation was previously implicated in an increase of savannah cytospecies in southern Ghana (1975-1997). Our data had little power to support (or refute) suggestions of a continuing increase, except in the Asukawkaw river basin.

Stability and change in the distribution of cytospecies of the Simulium damnosum complex (Diptera: Simuliidae) in southern Ghana from 1971 to 2011

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Simulium damnosum s.l., the most important vector of onchocerciasis in Africa, is a complex of sibling species that have been described on the basis of differences in their larval polytene chromosomes. These (cyto) species differ in their geographical distributions, ecologies and epidemiological roles. In Ghana, distributional changes have been recorded as a consequence of vector control and environmental change (e.g. deforestation), with potential disease consequences. We review the distribution of cytospecies in southern Ghana and report changes observed with reference to historical data collated from 1971 to 2005 and new identifications made between 2006 and 2011. Methods/Results Larvae were collected from riverine breeding sites, fixed in Carnoy’s solution and chromosome preparations made. Cytotaxonomic identifications from 1,232 samples (including 49 new samples) were analysed. We report long-term stability in cytospecies distribution in the rivers Afram, Akrum, Pawnpawn and Pru. For the rivers Oda, Ofin and Tano we describe (for the first time) patterns of distribution. We could not detect cytospecies composition changes in the upper Pra, and the lower Pra seems to have been stable. The elimination of the Djodji form of S. sanctipauli in the Volta Region seems to have had no long-term effects on the distribution of the other cytospecies, despite an initial surge by S. yahense. There has been a recent increase in the occurrence of savannah cytospecies in the river Asukawkaw, and this might be related to continuing deforestation. Conclusions Cytospecies’ distributions have not been stable from 1971 to 2011. Although there are no obvious causes for the temporary appearance and subsequent disappearance of cytospecies in a particular location, a major influence has been vector control and migration patterns, probably explaining observed changes on the Black Volta and lower Volta rivers. Deforestation was previously implicated in an increase of savannah cytospecies in southern Ghana (1975–1997). Our data had little power to support (or refute) suggestions of a continuing increase, except in the Asukawkaw river basin. PMID:23849451

Climate change risks, extinction debt, and conservation implications for a threatened freshwater fish: Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus).

PubMed

Pandit, Shubha N; Maitland, Bryan M; Pandit, Laxmi K; Poesch, Mark S; Enders, Eva C

2017-11-15

Climate change is affecting many freshwater species, particularly fishes. Predictions of future climate change suggest large and deleterious effects on species with narrow dispersal abilities due to limited hydrological connectivity. In turn, this creates the potential for population isolation in thermally unsuitable habitats, leading to physiological stress, species declines or possible extirpation. The current extent of many freshwater fish species' spatio-temporal distribution patterns and their sensitivity to thermal impacts from climate change - critical information for conservation planning - are often unknown. Carmine shiner (Notropis percobromus) is an ecologically important species listed as threatened or imperilled nationally (Canada) and regionally (South Dakota, United States) due to its restricted range and sensitivity to water quality and temperature. This research aimed to determine the current distribution and spatio-temporal variability in projected suitable habitat for Carmine shiner using niche-based modeling approaches (MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN models). Statistically downscaled, bias-corrected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) data was used to model the distribution of Carmine shiner in central North America for the period of 2041-2060 (2050s). Maximum mean July temperature and temperature variability were the main factors in determining Carmine shiner distribution. Patterns of projected habitat change by the 2050s suggest the spatial extent of the current distribution of Carmine shiner would shift north, with >50% of the current distribution changing with future projections based on two Representative Concentrations Pathways for CO 2 emissions. Whereas the southern extent of the distribution would become unsuitable for Carmine shiner, suitable habitats are predicted to become available further north, if accessible. Importantly, the majority of habitat gains for Carmine shiner would be in areas currently inaccessible due to dispersal limitations, suggesting current populations may face an extinction debt within the next half century. These results provide evidence that Carmine shiner may be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and suggest that management actions - such as assisted migration - may be needed to mitigate impacts from climate change and ensure the long-term persistence of the species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accurate step-hold tracking of smoothly varying periodic and aperiodic probability.

PubMed

Ricci, Matthew; Gallistel, Randy

2017-07-01

Subjects observing many samples from a Bernoulli distribution are able to perceive an estimate of the generating parameter. A question of fundamental importance is how the current percept-what we think the probability now is-depends on the sequence of observed samples. Answers to this question are strongly constrained by the manner in which the current percept changes in response to changes in the hidden parameter. Subjects do not update their percept trial-by-trial when the hidden probability undergoes unpredictable and unsignaled step changes; instead, they update it only intermittently in a step-hold pattern. It could be that the step-hold pattern is not essential to the perception of probability and is only an artifact of step changes in the hidden parameter. However, we now report that the step-hold pattern obtains even when the parameter varies slowly and smoothly. It obtains even when the smooth variation is periodic (sinusoidal) and perceived as such. We elaborate on a previously published theory that accounts for: (i) the quantitative properties of the step-hold update pattern; (ii) subjects' quick and accurate reporting of changes; (iii) subjects' second thoughts about previously reported changes; (iv) subjects' detection of higher-order structure in patterns of change. We also call attention to the challenges these results pose for trial-by-trial updating theories.

Faster poleward range shifts in moths with more variable colour patterns

PubMed Central

Forsman, Anders; Betzholtz, Per-Eric; Franzén, Markus

2016-01-01

Range shifts have been documented in many organisms, and climate change has been implicated as a contributing driver of latitudinal and altitudinal range modifications. However, little is known about what species trait(s) allow for faster environmental tracking and improved capacity for distribution expansions. We used data for 416 species of moths, and show that range limits in Sweden have shifted to the north by on average 52.4 km per decade between 1973 and 2014. When also including non-expanding species, average expansion rate was 23.2 km per decade. The rate of boundary shifts increased with increasing levels of inter-individual variation in colour patterns and decreased with increasing latitude. The association with colour patterns indicate that variation in this functionally important trait enables species to cope with novel and changing conditions. Northern range limits also increased with average abundance and decreased with increasing year-to-year abundance fluctuations, implicating production of dispersers as a driver of range dynamics. Studies of terrestrial animals show that rates of poleward shifts differ between taxonomic groups, increase over time, and depend on study duration and latitude. Knowledge of how distribution shifts change with time, location, and species characteristics may improve projections of responses to climate change and aid the protection of biodiversity. PMID:27808116

Faster poleward range shifts in moths with more variable colour patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsman, Anders; Betzholtz, Per-Eric; Franzén, Markus

2016-11-01

Range shifts have been documented in many organisms, and climate change has been implicated as a contributing driver of latitudinal and altitudinal range modifications. However, little is known about what species trait(s) allow for faster environmental tracking and improved capacity for distribution expansions. We used data for 416 species of moths, and show that range limits in Sweden have shifted to the north by on average 52.4 km per decade between 1973 and 2014. When also including non-expanding species, average expansion rate was 23.2 km per decade. The rate of boundary shifts increased with increasing levels of inter-individual variation in colour patterns and decreased with increasing latitude. The association with colour patterns indicate that variation in this functionally important trait enables species to cope with novel and changing conditions. Northern range limits also increased with average abundance and decreased with increasing year-to-year abundance fluctuations, implicating production of dispersers as a driver of range dynamics. Studies of terrestrial animals show that rates of poleward shifts differ between taxonomic groups, increase over time, and depend on study duration and latitude. Knowledge of how distribution shifts change with time, location, and species characteristics may improve projections of responses to climate change and aid the protection of biodiversity.

Is the nestedness of metazoan parasite assemblages of marine fishes from the southeastern Pacific coast a pattern associated with the geographical distributional range of the host?

PubMed

González, M T; Oliva, M E

2009-04-01

Nested structure is a pattern originally described in island biogeography to characterize how a set of species is distributed among a set of islands. In parasite communities, nestedness has been intensively studied among individual fish from a locality. However, nested patterns among parasite assemblages from different host populations (localities) have scarcely been investigated. We recorded the occurrence of parasites in 9 fish species widely distributed along the southeastern Pacific coast to determine whether the ecto- and endoparasite assemblages of marine fishes show a nested structure associated with host distributional range. Nestedness was tested using Brualdi-Sanderson index of discrepancy (BR); and 5 null models incorporated in a 'Nestedness' programme (Ulrich, 2006). The ecto- and endoparasite richness do not show similar patterns of latitudinal gradients among fish hosts, with 33-66% of analysed ectoparasite assemblages, and 25-75% of endoparasite assemblages showing nested structures through the host distributional range. For ectoparasites, species richness gradients and nested structure (when present) might be associated with decreased host densities or could reflect negative environmental conditions in the distributional border of the host species, whereas for endoparasites might be caused by geographical breaks of prey or changes in prey availability (intermediate hosts). The sampled extension of the distributional range of the host species, as well as the lack of specificity of some parasites, could influence the detection of nestedness.

The Effects of Weather Patterns on the Spatio-Temporal Distribution of SO2 over East Asia as Seen from Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunlap, L.; Li, C.; Dickerson, R. R.; Krotkov, N. A.

2015-12-01

Weather systems, particularly mid-latitude wave cyclones, have been known to play an important role in the short-term variation of near-surface air pollution. Ground measurements and model simulations have demonstrated that stagnant air and minimal precipitation associated with high pressure systems are conducive to pollutant accumulation. With the passage of a cold front, built up pollution is transported downwind of the emission sources or washed out by precipitation. This concept is important to note when studying long-term changes in spatio-temporal pollution distribution, but has not been studied in detail from space. In this study, we focus on East Asia (especially the industrialized eastern China), where numerous large power plants and other point sources as well as area sources emit large amounts of SO2, an important gaseous pollutant and a precursor of aerosols. Using data from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) we show that such weather driven distribution can indeed be discerned from satellite data by utilizing probability distribution functions (PDFs) of SO2 column content. These PDFs are multimodal and give insight into the background pollution level at a given location and contribution from local and upwind emission sources. From these PDFs it is possible to determine the frequency for a given region to have SO2 loading that exceeds the background amount. By comparing OMI-observed long-term change in the frequency with meteorological data, we can gain insights into the effects of climate change (e.g., the weakening of Asian monsoon) on regional air quality. Such insight allows for better interpretation of satellite measurements as well as better prediction of future pollution distribution as a changing climate gives way to changing weather patterns.

Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

Population rate dynamics and multineuron firing patterns in sensory cortex

PubMed Central

Okun, Michael; Yger, Pierre; Marguet, Stephan; Gerard-Mercier, Florian; Benucci, Andrea; Katzner, Steffen; Busse, Laura; Carandini, Matteo; Harris, Kenneth D.

2012-01-01

Cortical circuits encode sensory stimuli through the firing of neuronal ensembles, and also produce spontaneous population patterns in the absence of sensory drive. This population activity is often characterized experimentally by the distribution of multineuron “words” (binary firing vectors), and a match between spontaneous and evoked word distributions has been suggested to reflect learning of a probabilistic model of the sensory world. We analyzed multineuron word distributions in sensory cortex of anesthetized rats and cats, and found that they are dominated by fluctuations in population firing rate rather than precise interactions between individual units. Furthermore, cortical word distributions change when brain state shifts, and similar behavior is seen in simulated networks with fixed, random connectivity. Our results suggest that similarity or dissimilarity in multineuron word distributions could primarily reflect similarity or dissimilarity in population firing rate dynamics, and not necessarily the precise interactions between neurons that would indicate learning of sensory features. PMID:23197704

Seasonal change of topology and resilience of ecological networks in wetlandscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bin, Kim; Park, Jeryang

2017-04-01

Wetlands distributed in a landscape provide various ecosystem services including habitat for flora and fauna, hydrologic controls, and biogeochemical processes. Hydrologic regime of each wetland at a given landscape varies by hydro-climatic and geological conditions as well as the bathymetry, forming a certain pattern in the wetland area distribution and spatial organization. However, its large-scale pattern also changes over time as this wetland complex is subject to stochastic hydro-climatic forcing in various temporal scales. Consequently, temporal variation in the spatial structure of wetlands inevitably affects the dispersal ability of species depending on those wetlands as habitat. Here, we numerically show (1) the spatiotemporal variation of wetlandscapes by forcing seasonally changing stochastic rainfall and (2) the corresponding ecological networks which either deterministically or stochastically forming the dispersal ranges. We selected four vernal pool regions with distinct climate conditions in California. The results indicate that the spatial structure of wetlands in a landscape by measuring the wetland area frequency distribution changes by seasonal hydro-climatic condition but eventually recovers to the initial state. However, the corresponding ecological networks, which the structure and function change by the change of distances between wetlands, and measured by degree distribution and network efficiency, may not recover to the initial state especially in the regions with high seasonal dryness index. Moreover, we observed that the changes in both the spatial structure of wetlands in a landscape and the corresponding ecological networks exhibit hysteresis over seasons. Our analysis indicates that the hydrologic and ecological resilience of a wetlandcape may be low in a dry region with seasonal hydro-climatic forcing. Implications of these results for modelling ecological networks depending on hydrologic systems especially for conservation purposes are discussed.

The Effect of Differences in Day and Night Lighting Distributions on Drivers' Speed Perception.

PubMed

Kim, Jonathan D; Perrone, John A; Isler, Robert B

2017-06-01

Previous research has shown that changes to contrast levels in the visual environment caused by fog can affect drivers' perceptions of speed. It is not easy, however, to extrapolate these results to other driving scenarios in which contrast is affected, such as during nighttime driving, because the measure of contrast is more complex when considering factors such as the illumination provided by headlights. Therefore, we investigated the differences in lighting distribution patterns between day- and nighttime driving on speed perception using prerendered 3D scenarios representing driving on a rural road. A two-alternative forced-choice design based on the method of constant stimuli was utilised, with 32 participants viewing a series of pairs of scenarios (day vs. night driving) from a driver's perspective while indicating for each pair whether the second scenario was faster or slower than the first scenario. Our results indicated that speed discrimination accuracy was minimally affected by changes in lighting distribution patterns between day and night.

Spatial and geographical changes in the mesozooplankton community in the Bering and Chukchi Seas during the summers of 2007 and 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsuno, Kohei; Landeira Sanchez, Jose M.; Yamaguchi, Atsushi; Hirawake, Toru; Kikuchi, Takashi

2016-09-01

From July to August 2007 and June to July 2008, the horizontal/geographical changes in the zooplankton community in the Bering and Chukchi Seas were studied. The geographical patterns, which were common for these two years, were observed for salinity, chlorophyll a (Chl. a), zooplankton chaetognaths, hydrozoans and the whole zooplankton community. Among them, the patterns of salinity and Chl. a were related with the horizontal distribution of the water masses. The distributions of the two carnivorous taxa were correlated with their prey (copepods or barnacle larvae). The analysis of the structural equation model (SEM) revealed that the horizontal distribution of the zooplankton abundance and biomass were governed by the different taxa. Thus, the zooplankton abundance was governed by the numerically dominant but smaller-bodied taxa, such as the barnacle larvae and copepod Pseudocalanus spp., while the zooplankton biomass was determined by the large-bodied copepods, such as Calanus glacialis/marshallae and Eucalanus bungii.

Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales.

PubMed

Beever, Erik A; Dobrowski, S Z; Long, J; Mynsberge, A R; Piekielek, N B

2013-07-01

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994-1999 and 2003-2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation,and climate at ecoregional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik A.; Solomon Dubrowski,; ,; ,; J. Long,; ,; A. Mysnberge,; Piekielek, N. B.

2014-01-01

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species’ distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994–1999 and 2003–2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

A Modeling Study of the Influence of Hemispheric Transport on Trends in O3 Distributions Over North America

EPA Science Inventory

Changing emission patterns across the globe are resulting in heterogeneous changes in tropospheric chemical composition and likely altering the long-range transport of air pollutants and their impact at receptor regions. In this study, we combine results from multi-decadal simula...

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. II. Change in Microbial Function Impacts Carbon Composition

Treesearch

Nicholas J. Bouskill; Tana E. Wood; Richard Baran; Zhao Hao; Zaw Ye; Ben P. Bowen; Hsiao Chien Lim; Peter S. Nico; Hoi-Ying Holman; Benjamin Gilbert; Whendee L. Silver; Trent R. Northen; Eoin L. Brodie

2016-01-01

Climate model projections for tropical regions show clear perturbation of precipitation patterns leading to increased frequency and severity of drought in some regions. Previous work has shown declining soil moisture to be a strong driver of changes in microbial trait distribution, however...

Coping with Changing Demographics. ERIC Digest Series Number EA45.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klauke, Amy

Studying local and national population distribution, as well as economic and social patterns, is becoming crucial for educators who serve rapidly changing communities. School officials should take into consideration the tremendous diversity in cultures, economic and family situations, and educational levels existing within an ethnic group. Several…

Technology and Work. Research Review No. 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taviss, Irene; Gerber, William

Recent literature reflecting the impact of technological change on the occupational distribution of the labor force and on work patterns and skills is reviewed. Social and policy implications of technological change which are considered include mechanisms for improving the coordination between labor supply and demand and the problems and prospects…

Tidal wetland plant and algal assemblages in Oregon: spatial patterns of composition and vulnerability to climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Tidal wetlands support important ecosystem functions along the coast of the Pacific Northwest such as primary production and nutrient transformation. Sea-level rise (SLR) and elevated salinity due to climate change may affect the abundance, distribution, and diversity of plants a...

A Review of Two Studies of Elasticity in Academe.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoffman, Emily P.

1986-01-01

Reviews two elasticity of demand papers in this "Economics of Education Review" issue. Refutes C.F. Chang and H.P. Tuckman's interpretation of college faculty substitution trends, attributing changes in rank distribution to academic hiring and promotion patterns. Affirms G.A. Chressanthis' class standing results and recommendation of a…

Spatial and temporal coherence in perceptual binding

PubMed Central

Blake, Randolph; Yang, Yuede

1997-01-01

Component visual features of objects are registered by distributed patterns of activity among neurons comprising multiple pathways and visual areas. How these distributed patterns of activity give rise to unified representations of objects remains unresolved, although one recent, controversial view posits temporal coherence of neural activity as a binding agent. Motivated by the possible role of temporal coherence in feature binding, we devised a novel psychophysical task that requires the detection of temporal coherence among features comprising complex visual images. Results show that human observers can more easily detect synchronized patterns of temporal contrast modulation within hybrid visual images composed of two components when those components are drawn from the same original picture. Evidently, time-varying changes within spatially coherent features produce more salient neural signals. PMID:9192701

Investigation of the 3D temperature distribution patterns above the Antarctic Peninsula using remote sensing data - A contribution for polar climate monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Höppner, Kathrin; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Diedrich, Erhard

2015-04-01

West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula are in the focus of current studies on a changing environment and climate of the polar regions. A recently founded Junior Researchers Group at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) is studying changing processes in cryosphere and atmosphere above the Antarctic Peninsula. It is the aim of the group to make use of long-term remote sensing data sets of the land and ice surfaces and the atmosphere in order to characterize environmental changes in this highly sensitive region. One of the PhD projects focuses on the investigation of the 3D temperature distribution patterns above the Antarctic Peninsula. Temperature data sets ranging from MODIS land surface temperatures up to middle atmosphere data of AURA/MLS will be evaluated over the last approx. 12 years. This 3-dimensional view allows comprehensive investigations of the thermal structure and spatio-temporal characteristics of the southern polar atmosphere. Tropospheric data sets will be analyzed by multivariate statistical methods and will allow the identification of dominant atmospheric circulation patterns as well as their temporal variability. An overview of the data sets and first results will be presented.

Laws of evolution of slip trace pattern and its parameters with deformation in [1.8.12] – single crystals of Ni{sub 3}Fe alloy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teplyakova, Ludmila, E-mail: lat168@mail.ru; Koneva, Nina, E-mail: koneva@mail.ru; Kunitsyna, Tatyana, E-mail: kma11061990@mail.ru

2016-01-15

The slip trace pattern of Ni{sub 3}Fe alloy single crystals with the short range order oriented for a single slip were investigated on replica at different stages of deformation using the transmission diffraction electron microscopy method. The connection of staging with the formation of slip trace pattern and the change of its parameters were established. The number of local areas where two or more slip systems work is increased with the change of stages. In these conditions the character of slip localization in the primary slip system is changed from the packets to the homogeneous distribution. The distributions of themore » distances between slip traces and the shear power in slip traces were plotted. The correlation between the average value of the shear power in the primary slip traces and the average distance between them was revealed in this work. It was established that the rates of the average value growth of the relative local shear and the shear power in the slip traces reach the largest values at the transition stage.« less

The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

PubMed

Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Patterns of change in tree islands in Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge from 1950 to 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brandt, L.A.; Portier, Kenneth M.; Kitchens, W.M.

2000-01-01

Size, shape, orientation, and distribution of tree islands in a remnant of northern Everglades wetland were examined from 1950 and 1991 aerial photography. The objectives were to quantify the patterns of tree islands in Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, to determine if the patterns of tree islands had changed between the two dates, and to relate the tree island patterns to modeled pre- and post-drainage hydrologic patterns. There was considerable variation in the patterns of tree islands spatially and temporally. Changes in the size and shape of tree islands from 1950 to 1991 are consistent with changes in the modeled pre- and post-drainage hydrologic patterns. Photo plots along the edges of the refuge, where hydroperiods are longer and depths deeper than they were historically, show a decrease in tree island size and in overall area of tree islands in the plots. Photo plots in the interior, where hydroperiods are shorter than they were pre-drainage, show an increase in tree island area. Overall, there is a tendency for more tree islands to be irregularly shaped in the 1991 photo plots than in the 1950 plots, a reflection of the loss of water flow, reduction of pulse magnitude, and the ponding of water along the perimeter dikes. This study illustrates the importance of considering long-term changes in hydroperiod, depths, and water flows in the restoration of this area.

Histopathological Study of Central Nervous System Lesions: Emphasizing Association of Neoplasms with ABO Blood Groups.

PubMed

Kumarguru, B N; Pallavi, P; Sunila; Manjunath, G V; Vasan, T S; Rajalakshmi, B R

2017-04-01

The Central Nervous System (CNS) lesions show considerable geographic and racial variations with respect to the incidence and the pattern of distribution of lesions. The ABO blood status is a readily accessible factor in genetic constitution of the patients. It has been shown to be associated with many diseases. But the influence of blood group status on the pathogenesis of brain tumours is still unclear. To study various histopathological patterns of CNS lesions and to evaluate the association of CNS tumours with the distribution of ABO blood groups in documented cases. In the present study, 147 cases were analyzed. It was an analytical type of study, done at JSS Medical College, Mysore, over a period of 2 years and 8 months from January 2009 to August 2011. Histopathology slides were routinely stained by Haematoxylin and Eosin (H&E) stain. Special stains were performed in selected cases. Blood group of the patients and the control group were documented. Blood group distribution pattern was assessed in relation to histopathological diagnosis of various CNS tumours. Histopathological diagnosis of 147 cases included neoplastic lesions (84.35%) and non-neoplastic lesions (15.64%). Neoplastic lesions (84.35%) constituted the majority, which included neuroepithelial tumours (29.25%) as predominant pattern. Non-neoplastic lesions constituted only 15.64%, which included inflammatory lesion (8.16%) as the predominant pattern. ABO blood group data was available in 92 cases (84.4%) of neoplastic lesions, which included 71 cases (48.29%) of primary CNS neoplasms categorized according to WHO grades. The control group constituted 21,067 healthy voluntary donors. Blood group O was the most frequent blood group in neoplastic lesions (40.21%) and primary CNS neoplasms categorized according to WHO grades (45.07%). The association between the CNS neoplasms and ABO blood groups was not statistically significant (p = 0.055). But a definite change in the pattern of distribution of ABO blood groups observed between neoplastic lesions and control groups. The influence of blood group types on the development of brain tumours appears intriguing and needs to be well established. Though statistically insignificant, a definite change in the pattern of distribution of ABO blood groups was observed between neoplastic lesions and control groups. This necessitates attention and stratification of patients for effective management.

Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Ben; Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne

Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is better in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decomposemore » the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO 2 portion and a non-CO 2 portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO 2-/non-CO 2-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.« less

Exploring precipitation pattern scaling methodologies and robustness among CMIP5 models

DOE PAGES

Kravitz, Ben; Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-05-12

Pattern scaling is a well-established method for approximating modeled spatial distributions of changes in temperature by assuming a time-invariant pattern that scales with changes in global mean temperature. We compare two methods of pattern scaling for annual mean precipitation (regression and epoch difference) and evaluate which method is better in particular circumstances by quantifying their robustness to interpolation/extrapolation in time, inter-model variations, and inter-scenario variations. Both the regression and epoch-difference methods (the two most commonly used methods of pattern scaling) have good absolute performance in reconstructing the climate model output, measured as an area-weighted root mean square error. We decomposemore » the precipitation response in the RCP8.5 scenario into a CO 2 portion and a non-CO 2 portion. Extrapolating RCP8.5 patterns to reconstruct precipitation change in the RCP2.6 scenario results in large errors due to violations of pattern scaling assumptions when this CO 2-/non-CO 2-forcing decomposition is applied. As a result, the methodologies discussed in this paper can help provide precipitation fields to be utilized in other models (including integrated assessment models or impacts assessment models) for a wide variety of scenarios of future climate change.« less

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being.

PubMed

Pecl, Gretta T; Araújo, Miguel B; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia; Bonebrake, Timothy C; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Evengård, Birgitta; Falconi, Lorena; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Jarzyna, Marta A; Jennings, Sarah; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif I; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; Mitchell, Nicola J; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Popova, Ekaterina; Robinson, Sharon A; Scheffers, Brett R; Shaw, Justine D; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Sunday, Jennifer M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wernberg, Thomas; Wapstra, Erik; Williams, Stephen E

2017-03-31

Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Low reflection and field localization over surface plasmon device with subwavelength patterned aluminum film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Ying; Peng, Sha; Long, Huabao; Liu, Runhan; Wei, Dong; Zhang, Xinyu; Wang, Haiwei; Xie, Changsheng

2018-02-01

In this paper, we propose a new device composed of patterned sub-wavelength arrays to investigate surface plasmons (SPs) over sub-wavelength metal nano-structures. The device consists of silicon substrate and sub-wavelength patterns fabricated on a layer of aluminum film with nanometer thickness. Each sub-wavelength pattern formed in aluminum film is composed of a basic nano-square and twelve triangles for shaping single nano-pattern, which are uniformly distributed on the four sides of each square. Reflectance spectra and electric field distribution in infrared region are simulated. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that the device can efficiently lower its reflectance in infrared spectrum, and the response frequency can be controlled by only changing the device parameters such as square side length and then triangle vertex angle. Besides, the simulated electric field distribution of the device shows obviously field localization effect at the edges of aluminum film nano-structure. The electric filed around the tips of aluminum triangles is localized into sub-wavelength scale, so as to be beyond the common diffraction limitation. Our work will help to reveal the interesting properties of SPs device, and also bring new prospect of photonic device.

Thyroglobulin autoantibodies switch to immunoglobulin (Ig)G1 and IgG3 subclasses and preserve their restricted epitope pattern after 131I treatment for Graves' hyperthyroidism: the activity of autoimmune disease influences subclass distribution but not epitope pattern of autoantibodies

PubMed Central

Latrofa, F; Ricci, D; Montanelli, L; Piaggi, P; Mazzi, B; Bianchi, F; Brozzi, F; Santini, P; Fiore, E; Marinò, M; Tonacchera, M; Vitti, P

2014-01-01

The subclass distribution of thyroglobulin autoantibodies (TgAb) is debated, whereas their epitope pattern is restricted. Radioidine (131I) treatment for Graves' disease (GD) induces a rise in TgAb levels, but it is unknown whether it modifies subclass distribution and epitope pattern of TgAb as well. We collected sera from GD patients before 131I treatment and 3 and 6 months thereafter. We measured total TgAb, TgAb light chains and TgAb subclasses by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in 25 patients. We characterized the TgAb epitope pattern in 30 patients by inhibiting their binding to 125-ITg by a pool of four TgAb-Fab (recognizing Tg epitope regions A, B, C and D) and to Tg in ELISA by each TgAb-Fab. Total TgAb immunoglobulin (Ig)G rose significantly (P = 0·024). TgAb κ chains did not change (P = 0·052), whereas TgAb λ chains increased significantly (P = 0·001) and persistently. We observed a significant rise in IgG1 and IgG3 levels after 131I (P = 0·008 and P = 0·006, respectively), while IgG2 and IgG4 levels did not change. The rise of IgG1 was persistent, that of IgG3 transient. The levels of inhibition of TgAb binding to Tg by the TgAb-Fab pool were comparable. A slight, non-significant reduction of the inhibition by the immune-dominant TgAb-Fab A was observed 3 and 6 months after 131I. We conclude that 131I treatment for GD increases the levels of the complement-activating IgG1 and IgG3 subclasses and does not influence significantly the epitope pattern of TgAb. In autoimmune thyroid disease subclass distribution of autoantibodies is dynamic in spite of a stable epitope pattern. PMID:25134846

Pulse Check: Trends in Drug Abuse January-June 2002 Reporting Period. Special Topic: A Look at Local Drug Markets.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meth, Marcia; Chalmers, Rebecca

The report aims to describe chronic drug users, emerging drugs, new routes of administration, varying use patterns, changing demand for treatment, drug-related criminal activity, drug markets, and shifts in supply and distribution patterns. Pulse Check regularly addresses four drugs of serious concern: heroin, crack cocaine/powder cocaine,…

[Landscape pattern and its vulnerability of Nansihu Lake basin during 1980-2015.

PubMed

Xui, Yan; Sun, Xiao Yin; Zhang, Da Zhi; Shan, Rui Feng; Liu, Fei

2018-02-01

Landscape pattern and its vulnerability have direct impacts on ecological environment in the basin. In order to protect the ecological security in Nansihu Lake basin, we analyzed the changes of landscape pattern based on seven sets of land use data (1980-2015), with landscape adaptability index (LAI) and landscape sensitivity index (LSI) being used to build the landscape vulnerability index (LVI). The spatial distribution and changes of LVI were analyzed. Results showed that the percentage of arable land areas decreased by 4.6% and construction land areas increased by 39.7% from 1980 to 2015. Other land use types showed fluctuating changes. The areas of forest land, grassland, and unused land decreased while water area increased. The arable land was the dominant land use type from 1980 to 2015 in this area. The degree of fragmentation of arable land and water area in the basin increased, whereas other land use types decreased. The fragmentation of whole basin decreased, but connectivity among landscape types enhanced. The irregularity and complexity of landscape pattern decreased, but diversity and evenness of landscape pattern displayed an increasing trend. With respect to LVI in different periods, the eastern part of the basin was higher than the western part, while the northern part was higher than the southern part. The spatial distribution of LVI was related to topography, layout of landscape types and change of land use. The LVI of Nansihu Lake basin showed a decline trend during 1980-2015. In the eastern part of the basin, higher level of LVI gradually dispersed and was replaced by lower level. In the northwest, the recovery of LVI was obvious. In the south and southwest parts, LVI was consistently low.

Variations of flow in human airways as a consequence of lung diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lizal, Frantisek; Stejskal, David; Belka, Miloslav; Jedelsky, Jan; Jicha, Miroslav; Brat, Kristian; Herout, Vladimir; Lizalova Sujanska, Elena

2018-06-01

The efficiency of drug delivery administered by inhalation depends, among other factors, such as size and shape of aerosol particles, significantly also on the flow in the airways. As many lung diseases change both the breathing pattern and the shape of airways, we focus in this study on the influence of several selected diseases on the distribution of flow between the lung lobes and on changes the diseases induce on the course of flowrate. First, we present results of a literature survey focused on the published records of pathological breathing patterns. In the second part, we describe the newly designed breathing simulator and the implementation of the patterns into it. The last part is focused on the experimental verification of fidelity of the simulated breathing patterns.

Quantifying full phenological event distributions reveals simultaneous advances, temporal stability and delays in spring and autumn migration timing in long-distance migratory birds.

PubMed

Miles, Will T S; Bolton, Mark; Davis, Peter; Dennis, Roy; Broad, Roger; Robertson, Iain; Riddiford, Nick J; Harvey, Paul V; Riddington, Roger; Shaw, Deryk N; Parnaby, David; Reid, Jane M

2017-04-01

Phenological changes in key seasonally expressed life-history traits occurring across periods of climatic and environmental change can cause temporal mismatches between interacting species, and thereby impact population and community dynamics. However, studies quantifying long-term phenological changes have commonly only measured variation occurring in spring, measured as the first or mean dates on which focal traits or events were observed. Few studies have considered seasonally paired events spanning spring and autumn or tested the key assumption that single convenient metrics accurately capture entire event distributions. We used 60 years (1955-2014) of daily bird migration census data from Fair Isle, Scotland, to comprehensively quantify the degree to which the full distributions of spring and autumn migration timing of 13 species of long-distance migratory bird changed across a period of substantial climatic and environmental change. In most species, mean spring and autumn migration dates changed little. However, the early migration phase (≤10th percentile date) commonly got earlier, while the late migration phase (≥90th percentile date) commonly got later. Consequently, species' total migration durations typically lengthened across years. Spring and autumn migration phenologies were not consistently correlated within or between years within species and hence were not tightly coupled. Furthermore, different metrics quantifying different aspects of migration phenology within seasons were not strongly cross-correlated, meaning that no single metric adequately described the full pattern of phenological change. These analyses therefore reveal complex patterns of simultaneous advancement, temporal stability and delay in spring and autumn migration phenologies, altering species' life-history structures. Additionally, they demonstrate that this complexity is only revealed if multiple metrics encompassing entire seasonal event distributions, rather than single metrics, are used to quantify phenological change. Existing evidence of long-term phenological changes detected using only one or two metrics should consequently be interpreted cautiously because divergent changes occurring simultaneously could potentially have remained undetected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Dynamic evolution of wetland landscape spatial pattern in Nansi Lake, China].

PubMed

Chen, Zhi Cong; Xie, Xiao Ping; Bai, Mao Wei

2016-10-01

Based on Landsat images in 1987, 2002 and 2014 from Nansi Lake located in Shandong Province, landscape pattern index, dynamic index, landscape gradient and gridding model were used for analysis of the wetland distribution in the lake. The results showed that the landscape contagion index and aggregation index gradually decreased from 1987 to 2014, while the landscape diversity index and evenness index gradually increased. The distribution of landscape area was more uniform while its patterns trended to be fragmented. Human activities impacted Nansi wetland distribution and the disturbance presented an increasing trend. The total area of Nansi wetland gradually increased during the study period. The area of lake first decreased then increased, and the area reached the maximum in 2014. The area of the ponds along the riparian zone had increased gradually, but the increasing speed slowed down. The area of the rivers remained stable, while the area of the swamps decreased continually during the period. The change of landscape pattern of Nansi Lake wetland mainly resulted from agricultural activities, establishment of Nansi Lake Natural Reserve, and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.

Extreme deconstruction supports niche conservatism driving New World bird diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Rangel, Thiago Fernando; dos Santos, Mariana Rocha

2012-08-01

It is expected that if environment fully establishes the borders of species geographic distribution, then richness patterns will arise simple by changing parameters on how environment affect each of the species. However, if other mechanisms (i.e., non-equilibrium of species' distributions with climate and historical contingency, shifts in adaptive peaks or biotic interactions) are driving species geographic distribution, models for species distribution and richness will not entirely match. Here we used the extreme deconstruction principle to test how niche conservatism keeping species geographic distributions in certain parts of environmental space drives richness patterns in New World birds, under tropical niche conservatism. Eight environmental variables were used to model the geographic distribution of 2790 species within 28 bird families using a GLM. Spatial patterns in richness for each of these families were also modeled as a function of these same variables using a standard OLS regression. Fit of these two types of models (mean MacFadden's ρ2 for GLM and R2 of OLS) across families and the match between GLM and OLS standardized slopes within and among bird families were then compared. We found a positive and significant correlation between GLM and OLS model fit (r = 0.601; P < 0.01), indicating that when environment strongly determine richness of a family, it also explains its species geographic distributions. The match between GLM and OLS slopes is significantly correlated with families' phylogenetic root distance (r = -0.467; P = 0.012), so that more basal families tend to have a better match between environmental drivers of richness and geographic distribution models. This is expected under tropical niche conservatism model and provides an integrated explanation on how processes at a lower hierarchical level (species' geographic distribution) drive diversity patterns.

An out of phase coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean over the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Ordoñez, Paulina; Gallego, David; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina

2017-04-01

An oscillation band, with a period ranging between 40 and 60 years, has been identified as the most intense signal over the North Atlantic Ocean using several oceanic and atmospheric reanalyses between 1856 and the present. This signal represents the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, an oscillation between warmer and colder than normal conditions in SST. Simultaneously, those changes in SST are accompanied by changes in atmospheric conditions represented by surface pressure, temperature and circulation. In fact, the evolution of the surface pressure pattern along this oscillation shows a North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern, suggesting the existence of an out of phase coupling between atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Further analysis shows that the evolution of the oceanic SST distribution modifies atmospheric baroclinic conditions in the mid to high latitudes of the North Atlantic and leads the atmospheric variability by 6-7 years. If AMO represents the oceanic conditons and NAO represents the atmospheric variability then it could be said that AMO of one sign leads NAO of the opposite sign with a lag of 6-7 years. On the other hand, the evolution of atmospheric conditions, represented by pressure distribution patterns, favors atmospheric circulation anomalies and induces a heat advection which tends to change the sign of the existing SST distribution and oceanic conditions with a lag of 16-17 years. In this case, NAO of one sign leads AMO of the same sign with a lag of 16-17 years.

Polymorphic nuclear markers for coastal plant species with dynamic geographic distributions, the rock samphire (Crithmum maritimum) and the vulnerable dune pansy (Viola tricolor subsp. curtisii).

PubMed

Latron, Mathilde; Arnaud, Jean-François; Ferla, Héloïse; Godé, Cécile; Duputié, Anne

2018-06-01

Identifying spatial patterns of genetic differentiation across a species range is critical to set up conservation and restoration decision-making. This is especially timely, since global change triggers shifts in species' geographic distribution and in the geographical variation of mating system and patterns of genetic differentiation, with varying consequences at the trailing and leading edges of a species' distribution. Using 454 pyrosequencing, we developed nuclear microsatellite loci for two plant species showing a strictly coastal geographical distribution and contrasting range dynamics: the expanding rock samphire (Crithmum maritimum, 21 loci) and the highly endangered and receding dune pansy (Viola tricolor subsp. curtisii, 12 loci). Population genetic structure was then assessed by genotyping more than 100 individuals from four populations of each of the two target species. Rock samphire displayed high levels of genetic differentiation (F ST  = 0.38), and a genetic structure typical of a mostly selfing species (F IS ranging from 0.16 to 0.58). Populations of dune pansy showed a less pronounced level of population structuring (F ST  = 0.25) and a genotypic structure more suggestive of a mixed-mating system when excluding two loci with heterozygote excess. These results demonstrate that the genetic markers developed here are useful to assess the mating system of populations of these two species. They will be tools of choice to investigate phylogeographical patterns and variation in mating system over the geographical distribution ranges for two coastal plant species that are subject to dynamic evolution due to rapid contemporary global change.

Species distribution and introgressive hybridization of two Avicennia species from the Western Hemisphere unveiled by phylogeographic patterns.

PubMed

Mori, Gustavo M; Zucchi, Maria I; Sampaio, Iracilda; Souza, Anete P

2015-04-10

Mangrove plants grow in the intertidal zone in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. The global latitudinal distribution of the mangrove is mainly influenced by climatic and oceanographic features. Because of current climate changes, poleward range expansions have been reported for the major biogeographic regions of mangrove forests in the Western and Eastern Hemispheres. There is evidence that mangrove forests also responded similarly after the last glaciation by expanding their ranges. In this context, the use of genetic tools is an informative approach for understanding how historical processes and factors impact the distribution of mangrove species. We investigated the phylogeographic patterns of two Avicennia species, A. germinans and A. schaueriana, from the Western Hemisphere using nuclear and chloroplast DNA markers. Our results indicate that, although Avicennia bicolor, A. germinans and A. schaueriana are independent lineages, hybridization between A. schaueriana and A. germinans is a relevant evolutionary process. Our findings also reinforce the role of long-distance dispersal in widespread mangrove species such as A. germinans, for which we observed signs of transatlantic dispersal, a process that has, most likely, contributed to the breadth of the distribution of A. germinans. However, along the southern coast of South America, A. schaueriana is the only representative of the genus. The distribution patterns of A. germinans and A. schaueriana are explained by their different responses to past climate changes and by the unequal historical effectiveness of relative gene flow by propagules and pollen. We observed that A. bicolor, A. germinans and A. schaueriana are three evolutionary lineages that present historical and ongoing hybridization on the American continent. We also inferred a new evidence of transatlantic dispersal for A. germinans, which may have contributed to its widespread distribution. Despite the generally wider distribution of A. germinans, only A. schaueriana is found in southern South America, which may be explained by the different demographic histories of these two species and the larger proportion of gene flow produced by propagules rather than pollen in A. schaueriana. These results highlight that these species responded in different ways to past events, indicating that such differences may also occur in the currently changing world.

Comparison of the spatial patterns of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe at two points in time, spaced twenty-nine years apart: is climate variability of importance?

PubMed

Pedersen, Ulrik B; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Midzi, Nicholas; Mduluza, Tkafira; Mukaratirwa, Samson; Fensholt, Rasmus; Vennervald, Birgitte J; Kristensen, Thomas K; Vounatsou, Penelope; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie

2017-05-08

Temperature, precipitation and humidity are known to be important factors for the development of schistosome parasites as well as their intermediate snail hosts. Climate therefore plays an important role in determining the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis and it is expected that climate change will alter distribution and transmission patterns. Reliable predictions of distribution changes and likely transmission scenarios are key to efficient schistosomiasis intervention-planning. However, it is often difficult to assess the direction and magnitude of the impact on schistosomiasis induced by climate change, as well as the temporal transferability and predictive accuracy of the models, as prevalence data is often only available from one point in time. We evaluated potential climate-induced changes on the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe using prevalence data from two points in time, 29 years apart; to our knowledge, this is the first study investigating this over such a long time period. We applied historical weather data and matched prevalence data of two schistosome species (Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni). For each time period studied, a Bayesian geostatistical model was fitted to a range of climatic, environmental and other potential risk factors to identify significant predictors that could help us to obtain spatially explicit schistosomiasis risk estimates for Zimbabwe. The observed general downward trend in schistosomiasis prevalence for Zimbabwe from 1981 and the period preceding a survey and control campaign in 2010 parallels a shift towards a drier and warmer climate. However, a statistically significant relationship between climate change and the change in prevalence could not be established.

Chained nuclei and python pattern in skeletal muscle cells as histological markers for electrical injury.

PubMed

Tanaka, Hiroki; Okuda, Katsuhiro; Ohtani, Seiji; Asari, Masaru; Horioka, Kie; Isozaki, Shotaro; Hayakawa, Akira; Ogawa, Katsuhiro; Hiroshi, Shiono; Shimizu, Keiko

2018-05-01

Electrical injury is damage caused by an electrical current passing through the body. We have previously reported that irregular stripes crossing skeletal muscle fibers (python pattern) and multiple small nuclei arranged in the longitudinal direction of the muscle fibers (chained nuclear change) are uniquely observed by histopathological analysis in the skeletal muscle tissues of patients with electrical injury. However, it remains unclear whether these phenomena are caused by the electrical current itself or by the joule heat generated by the electric current passing through the body. To clarify the causes underlying these changes, we applied electric and heat injury to the exteriorized rat soleus muscle in situ. Although both the python pattern and chained nuclear change were induced by electric injury, only the python pattern was induced by heat injury. Furthermore, a chained nuclear change was induced in the soleus muscle cells by electric current flow in physiological saline at 40 °C ex vivo, but a python pattern was not observed. When the skeletal muscle was exposed to electrical injury in cardiac-arrested rats, a python pattern was induced within 5 h after cardiac arrest, but no chained nuclear change was observed. Therefore, a chained nuclear change is induced by an electrical current alone in tissues in vital condition, whereas a python pattern is caused by joule heat, which may occur shortly after death. The degree and distribution of these skeletal muscle changes may be useful histological markers for analyzing cases of electrical injury in forensic medicine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model Simulation of Diurnal Vertical Migration Patterns of Different-Sized Colonies of Microcystis Employing a Particle Trajectory Approach.

PubMed

Chien, Yu Ching; Wu, Shian Chee; Chen, Wan Ching; Chou, Chih Chung

2013-04-01

Microcystis , a genus of potentially harmful cyanobacteria, is known to proliferate in stratified freshwaters due to its capability to change cell density and regulate buoyancy. In this study, a trajectory model was developed to simulate the cell density change and spatial distribution of Microcystis cells with nonuniform colony sizes. Simulations showed that larger colonies migrate to the near-surface water layer during the night to effectively capture irradiation and become heavy enough to sink during daytime. Smaller-sized colonies instead took a longer time to get to the surface. Simulation of the diurnally varying Microcystis population profile matched the observed pattern in the field when the radii of the multisized colonies were in a beta distribution. This modeling approach is able to take into account the history of cells by keeping track of their positions and properties, such as cell density and the sizes of colonies. It also serves as the basis for further developmental modeling of phytoplanktons that are forming colonies and changing buoyancy.

Can We "Future-Proof" Marine Conservation Planning?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsky, M. L.; Rogers, L. A.

2016-02-01

Marine conservation and marine spatial planning strategies worldwide are designed around biogeographic patterns, often under the assumption that these patterns are relatively stable. With climate change, however, distributions are shifting rapidly as species seek more suitable conditions. Here, we use distribution projections from 2006-2100 for 360 marine species in North America to evaluate the effectiveness of the current marine protected area (MPA) network and to test climate-ready planning approaches. We consider both expected community changes and the uncertainty in those projections. We find that existing MPAs are likely to lose more species over the coming century than other locations on the continental shelf. We also find substantial shifts in the location of high- and low-value regions, which can complicate conservation planning. However, planning portfolios can be developed that perform much better in the face of changes expected over the coming century. The theory and practice of marine spatial planning and marine conservation can be substantially more responsive to our dynamic ocean.

Growth and patterning are evolutionarily dissociated in the vestigial wing discs of workers of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta.

PubMed

Bowsher, Julia H; Wray, Gregory A; Abouheif, Ehab

2007-12-15

Over the last decade, it has become clear that organismal form is largely determined by developmental and evolutionary changes in the growth and pattern formation of tissues. Yet, there is little known about how these two integrated processes respond to environmental cues or how they evolve relative to one another. Here, we present the discovery of vestigial wing imaginal discs in worker larvae of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta. These vestigial wing discs are present in all worker larvae, which is uncommon for a species with a large worker size distribution. Furthermore, the growth trajectory of these vestigial discs is distinct from all of the ant species examined to date because they grow at a rate slower than the leg discs. We predicted that the growth trajectory of the vestigial wing discs would be mirrored by evolutionary changes in their patterning. We tested this prediction by examining the expression of three patterning genes, extradenticle, ultrabithorax, and engrailed, known to underlie the wing polyphenism in ants. Surprisingly, the expression patterns of these three genes in the vestigial wing discs was the same as those found in ant species with different worker size distributions and wing disc growth than fire ants. We conclude that growth and patterning are evolutionarily dissociated in the vestigial wing discs of S. invicta because patterning in these discs is conserved, whereas their growth trajectories are not. The evolutionary dissociation of growth and patterning may be an important feature of gene networks that underlie polyphenic traits. 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Demographic expansion of two Tamarix species along the Yellow River caused by geological events and climate change in the Pleistocene.

PubMed

Liang, Hong-Yan; Feng, Zhi-Pei; Pei, Bing; Li, Yong; Yang, Xi-Tian

2018-01-08

The geological events and climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene played important roles in shaping patterns of species distribution. However, few studies have evaluated the patterns of species distribution that were influenced by the Yellow River. The present work analyzed the demography of two endemic tree species that are widely distributed along the Yellow River, Tamarix austromongolica and Tamarix chinensis, to understand the role of the Yellow River and Pleistocene climate in shaping their distribution patterns. The most common chlorotype, chlorotype 1, was found in all populations, and its divergence time could be dated back to 0.19 million years ago (Ma). This dating coincides well with the formation of the modern Yellow River and the timing of Marine Isotope Stages 5e-6 (MIS 5e-6). Bayesian reconstructions along with models of paleodistribution revealed that these two species experienced a demographic expansion in population size during the Quaternary period. Approximate Bayesian computation analyses supported a scenario of expansion approximately from the upper to lower reaches of the Yellow River. Our results provide support for the roles of the Yellow River and the Pleistocene climate in driving demographic expansion of the populations of T. austromongolica and T. chinensis. These findings are useful for understanding the effects of geological events and past climatic fluctuations on species distribution patterns.

Depth gradients in food web processes linking habitats in large lakes: Lake Superior as an exemplar ecosystem

EPA Science Inventory

In large lakes around the world, water depth is often associated with shifts in ecological communities. Depth-based changes in the abundance and distribution of invertebrate and fish species suggest that there may be concomitant changes in patterns of resource allocation. Using L...

EFFECTS OF RED TIDE (KARENIA BREVIS) ON PISCIVOROUS BIRDS IN SARASOTA BAY, FLORIDA

EPA Science Inventory

Red tide will cause changes in the abundance and distribution of fishes, which will be accompanied by changes in the patterns of habitat use by birds. Birds will be affected by exposure to brevetoxin via their prey and they will also face decreased availability of prey during...

Global Weirding? - Using Very Large Ensembles and Extreme Value Theory to assess Changes in Extreme Weather Events Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Mitchell, D.; Sippel, S.; Black, M. T.; Dittus, A. J.; Harrington, L. J.; Mohd Saleh, N. H.

2014-12-01

A shift in the distribution of socially-relevant climate variables such as daily minimum winter temperatures and daily precipitation extremes, has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change for various mid-latitude regions. However, while there are many process-based arguments suggesting also a change in the shape of these distributions, attribution studies demonstrating this have not currently been undertaken. Here we use a very large initial condition ensemble of ~40,000 members simulating the European winter 2013/2014 using the distributed computing infrastructure under the weather@home project. Two separate scenarios are used:1. current climate conditions, and 2. a counterfactual scenario of "world that might have been" without anthropogenic forcing. Specifically focusing on extreme events, we assess how the estimated parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution vary depending on variable-type, sampling frequency (daily, monthly, …) and geographical region. We find that the location parameter changes for most variables but, depending on the region and variables, we also find significant changes in scale and shape parameters. The very large ensemble allows, furthermore, to assess whether such findings in the fitted GEV distributions are consistent with an empirical analysis of the model data, and whether the most extreme data still follow a known underlying distribution that in a small sample size might otherwise be thought of as an out-lier. The ~40,000 member ensemble is simulated using 12 different SST patterns (1 'observed', and 11 best guesses of SSTs with no anthropogenic warming). The range in SSTs, along with the corresponding changings in the NAO and high-latitude blocking inform on the dynamics governing some of these extreme events. While strong tele-connection patterns are not found in this particular experiment, the high number of simulated extreme events allows for a more thorough analysis of the dynamics than has been performed before. Therefore, combining extreme value theory with very large ensemble simulations allows us to understand the dynamics of changes in extreme events which is not possible just using the former but also shows in which cases statistics combined with smaller ensembles give as valid results as very large initial conditions.

Nonlinear Buckling Analysis of Functionally Graded Graphene Reinforced Composite Shallow Arches with Elastic Rotational Constraints under Uniform Radial Load.

PubMed

Huang, Yonghui; Yang, Zhicheng; Liu, Airong; Fu, Jiyang

2018-05-28

The buckling behavior of functionally graded graphene platelet-reinforced composite (FG-GPLRC) shallow arches with elastic rotational constraints under uniform radial load is investigated in this paper. The nonlinear equilibrium equation of the FG-GPLRC shallow arch with elastic rotational constraints under uniform radial load is established using the Halpin-Tsai micromechanics model and the principle of virtual work, from which the critical buckling load of FG-GPLRC shallow arches with elastic rotational constraints can be obtained. This paper gives special attention to the effect of the GPL distribution pattern, weight fraction, geometric parameters, and the constraint stiffness on the buckling load. The numerical results show that all of the FG-GPLRC shallow arches with elastic rotational constraints have a higher buckling load-carrying capacity compared to the pure epoxy arch, and arches of the distribution pattern X have the highest buckling load among four distribution patterns. When the GPL weight fraction is constant, the thinner and larger GPL can provide the better reinforcing effect to the FG-GPLRC shallow arch. However, when the value of the aspect ratio is greater than 4, the flakiness ratio is greater than 103, and the effect of GPL's dimensions on the buckling load of the FG-GPLRC shallow arch is less significant. In addition, the buckling model of FG-GPLRC shallow arch with elastic rotational constraints is changed as the GPL distribution patterns or the constraint stiffness changes. It is expected that the method and the results that are presented in this paper will be useful as a reference for the stability design of this type of arch in the future.

Host contact and shedding patterns clarify variation in pathogen exposure and transmission in threatened tortoise Gopherus agassizii: implications for disease modelling and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, Shweta; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Mean field models may misrepresent natural transmission patterns in this and other populations depending on the distribution of high-risk contact and shedding events. Rapid outbreaks in generally solitary species may result from changes to their naturally low-risk contact patterns or due to increases in the frequency of severe infections or super-shedding events – population characteristics that should be further investigated to develop effective management strategies.

Global linkages between teleconnection patterns and the terrestrial biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlin, Kyla M.; Ault, Toby R.

2018-07-01

Interannual variability in the global carbon cycle is largely due to variations in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems, yet linkages between climate variability and variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle are not well understood at the global scale. Using a 30-year satellite record of semi-monthly leaf area index (LAI), we show that four modes of climate variability - El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic Meridional Mode, and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode - strongly impact interannual vegetation growth patterns, with 68% of the land surface impacted by at least one of these teleconnection patterns, yet the spatial distribution of these impacts is heterogeneous. Considering the patterns' impacts by biome, none has an exclusively positive or negative relationship with LAI. Our findings imply that future changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of teleconnection patterns will lead to diverse changes to the terrestrial biosphere and the global carbon cycle.

Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

PubMed

Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

2016-03-01

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fire patterns of South Eastern Queensland in a global context: A review

Treesearch

Philip Le C. F. Stewart; Patrick T. Moss

2015-01-01

Fire is an important driver in ecosystem evolution, composition, structure and distribution, and is vital for maintaining ecosystems of the Great Sandy Region (GSR). Charcoal records for the area dating back over 40, 000 years provide evidence of the great changes in vegetation composition, distribution and abundance in the region over time as a result of fire. Fires...

Variation in freshwater fish assemblages along a regional elevation gradient in the northern Andes, Colombia

PubMed Central

Carvajal-Quintero, Juan D; Escobar, Federico; Alvarado, Fredy; Villa-Navarro, Francisco A; Jaramillo-Villa, Úrsula; Maldonado-Ocampo, Javier A

2015-01-01

Studies on elevation diversity gradients have covered a large number of taxa and regions throughout the world; however, studies of freshwater fish are scarce and restricted to examining their changes along a specific gradient. These studies have reported a monotonic decrease in species richness with increasing elevation, but ignore the high taxonomic differentiation of each headwater assemblage that may generate high β-diversity among them. Here, we analyzed how fish assemblages vary with elevation among regional elevation bands, and how these changes are related to four environmental clines and to changes in the distribution, habitat use, and the morphology of fish species. Using a standardized field sampling technique, we assessed three different diversity and two structural assemblage measures across six regional elevation bands located in the northern Andes (Colombia). Each species was assigned to a functional group based on its body shape, habitat use, morphological, and/or behavioral adaptations. Additionally, at each sampling site, we measured four environmental variables. Our analyses showed: (1) After a monotonic decrease in species richness, we detected an increase in richness in the upper part of the gradient; (2) diversity patterns vary depending on the diversity measure used; (3) diversity patterns can be attributed to changes in species distribution and in the richness and proportions of functional groups along the regional elevation gradient; and (4) diversity patterns and changes in functional groups are highly correlated with variations in environmental variables, which also vary with elevation. These results suggest a novel pattern of variation in species richness with elevation: Species richness increases at the headwaters of the northern Andes owing to the cumulative number of endemic species there. This highlights the need for large-scale studies and has important implications for the aquatic conservation of the region. PMID:26257874

Changes in Voice Onset Time and Motor Speech Skills in Children following Motor Speech Therapy: Evidence from /pa/ productions

PubMed Central

Yu, Vickie Y.; Kadis, Darren S.; Oh, Anna; Goshulak, Debra; Namasivayam, Aravind; Pukonen, Margit; Kroll, Robert; De Nil, Luc F.; Pang, Elizabeth W.

2016-01-01

This study evaluated changes in motor speech control and inter-gestural coordination for children with speech sound disorders (SSD) subsequent to PROMPT (Prompts for Restructuring Oral Muscular Phonetic Targets) intervention. We measured the distribution patterns of voice onset time (VOT) for a voiceless stop (/p/) to examine the changes in inter-gestural coordination. Two standardized tests were used (VMPAC, GFTA-2) to assess the changes in motor speech skills and articulation. Data showed positive changes in patterns of VOT with a lower pattern of variability. All children showed significantly higher scores for VMPAC, but only some children showed higher scores for GFTA-2. Results suggest that the proprioceptive feedback provided through PROMPT had a positive influence on motor speech control and inter-gestural coordination in voicing behavior. This set of VOT data for children with SSD adds to our understanding of the speech characteristics underlying motor speech control. Directions for future studies are discussed. PMID:24446799

Fragmentation and Isolation

EPA Science Inventory

Landscapes are being modified by humans at ever-increasing rates worldwide. This landscape level modification has resulted in changes in ecological patterns and processes, including species distributions. The rate at which humans are altering both terrestrial and aquatic habitats...

Effects of Drought, Pest Pressure and Light Availability on Seedling Establishment and Growth: Their Role for Distribution of Tree Species across a Tropical Rainfall Gradient

PubMed Central

Gaviria, Julian; Engelbrecht, Bettina M. J.

2015-01-01

Tree species distributions associated with rainfall are among the most prominent patterns in tropical forests. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these patterns is important to project impacts of global climate change on tree distributions and diversity in the tropics. Beside direct effects of water availability, additional factors co-varying with rainfall have been hypothesized to play an important role, including pest pressure and light availability. While low water availability is expected to exclude drought-intolerant wet forest species from drier forests (physiological tolerance hypothesis), high pest pressure or low light availability are hypothesized to exclude dry forest species from wetter forests (pest pressure gradient and light availability hypothesis, respectively). To test these hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition, the potentially most critical stage for species discrimination, we conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment combined with a pest exclosure treatment at a wet and a dry forest site in Panama with seeds of 26 species with contrasting origin. Establishment success after one year did not reflect species distribution patterns. However, in the wet forest, wet origin species had a home advantage over dry forest species through higher growth rates. At the same time, drought limited survival of wet origin species in the dry forest, supporting the physiological tolerance hypothesis. Together these processes sort species over longer time frames, and exclude species outside their respective home range. Although we found pronounced effects of pests and some effects of light availability on the seedlings, they did not corroborate the pest pressure nor light availability hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition. Our results underline that changes in water availability due to climate change will have direct consequences on tree regeneration and distributions along tropical rainfall gradients, while indirect effects of light and pests are less important. PMID:26619138

Rapid variation in the circumstellar 10 micron emission of Alpha Orionis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloemhof, E. E.; Danchi, W. C.; Townes, C. H.

1985-01-01

The spatial distribution of 10 micron continuum flux around the supergiant star Alpha Orionis was measured on two occasions separated by an interval of 1 yr. A significant change in the infrared radiation pattern on the subarcsecond scale was observed. This change cannot be explained plausibly by macroscopic motion but may be due to a change in the physical properties of the circumstellar dust.

Seasonal temperature and precipitation regulate brook trout young-of-the-year abundance and population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kanno, Yoichiro; Pregler, Kasey C.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Hocking, Daniel; Wofford, John E.B.

2015-01-01

Our results indicate that YOY abundance is a key driver of brook trout population dynamics that is mediated by seasonal weather patterns. A reliable assessment of climate change impacts on brook trout needs to account for how alternations in seasonal weather patterns impact YOY abundance and how such relationships may differ across the range of brook trout distribution.

Testing hypotheses on distribution shifts and changes in phenology of imperfectly detectable species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambert, Thierry A.; Kendall, William L.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Pedrini, Paolo; Waddle, J. Hardin; Tavecchia, Giacomo; Walls, Susan C.; Tenan, Simone

2015-01-01

With ongoing climate change, many species are expected to shift their spatial and temporal distributions. To document changes in species distribution and phenology, detection/non-detection data have proven very useful. Occupancy models provide a robust way to analyse such data, but inference is usually focused on species spatial distribution, not phenology.We present a multi-season extension of the staggered-entry occupancy model of Kendall et al. (2013, Ecology, 94, 610), which permits inference about the within-season patterns of species arrival and departure at sampling sites. The new model presented here allows investigation of species phenology and spatial distribution across years, as well as site extinction/colonization dynamics.We illustrate the model with two data sets on European migratory passerines and one data set on North American treefrogs. We show how to derive several additional phenological parameters, such as annual mean arrival and departure dates, from estimated arrival and departure probabilities.Given the extent of detection/non-detection data that are available, we believe that this modelling approach will prove very useful to further understand and predict species responses to climate change.

Bioelectric patterning during oogenesis: stage-specific distribution of membrane potentials, intracellular pH and ion-transport mechanisms in Drosophila ovarian follicles.

PubMed

Krüger, Julia; Bohrmann, Johannes

2015-01-16

Bioelectric phenomena have been found to exert influence on various developmental and regenerative processes. Little is known about their possible functions and the cellular mechanisms by which they might act during Drosophila oogenesis. In developing follicles, characteristic extracellular current patterns and membrane-potential changes in oocyte and nurse cells have been observed that partly depend on the exchange of protons, potassium ions and sodium ions. These bioelectric properties have been supposed to be related to various processes during oogenesis, e. g. pH-regulation, osmoregulation, cell communication, cell migration, cell proliferation, cell death, vitellogenesis and follicle growth. Analysing in detail the spatial distribution and activity of the relevant ion-transport mechanisms is expected to elucidate the roles that bioelectric phenomena play during oogenesis. To obtain an overview of bioelectric patterning along the longitudinal and transversal axes of the developing follicle, the spatial distributions of membrane potentials (Vmem), intracellular pH (pHi) and various membrane-channel proteins were studied systematically using fluorescent indicators, fluorescent inhibitors and antisera. During mid-vitellogenic stages 9 to 10B, characteristic, stage-specific Vmem-patterns in the follicle-cell epithelium as well as anteroposterior pHi-gradients in follicle cells and nurse cells were observed. Corresponding distribution patterns of proton pumps (V-ATPases), voltage-dependent L-type Ca(2+)-channels, amiloride-sensitive Na(+)-channels and Na(+),H(+)-exchangers (NHE) and gap-junction proteins (innexin 3) were detected. In particular, six morphologically distinguishable follicle-cell types are characterized on the bioelectric level by differences concerning Vmem and pHi as well as specific compositions of ion channels and carriers. Striking similarities between Vmem-patterns and activity patterns of voltage-dependent Ca(2+)-channels were found, suggesting a mechanism for transducing bioelectric signals into cellular responses. Moreover, gradients of electrical potential and pH were observed within single cells. Our data suggest that spatial patterning of Vmem, pHi and specific membrane-channel proteins results in bioelectric signals that are supposed to play important roles during oogenesis, e. g. by influencing spatial coordinates, regulating migration processes or modifying the cytoskeletal organization. Characteristic stage-specific changes of bioelectric activity in specialized cell types are correlated with various developmental processes.

Spatiotemporal patterns of the fish assemblages downstream of the Gezhouba Dam on the Yangtze River.

PubMed

Tao, Jiangping; Gong, Yutian; Tan, Xichang; Yang, Zhi; Chang, Jianbo

2012-07-01

An explicit demonstration of the changes in fish assemblages is required to reveal the influence of damming on fish species. However, information from which to draw general conclusions regarding changes in fish assemblages is insufficient because of the limitations of available approaches. We used a combination of acoustic surveys, gillnet sampling, and geostatistical simulations to document the spatiotemporal variations in the fish assemblages downstream of the Gezhouba Dam, before and after the third impoundment of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). To conduct a hydroacoustic identification of individual species, we matched the size distributions of the fishes captured by gillnet with those of the acoustic surveys. An optimum threshold of target strength of -50 dB re 1 m(2) was defined, and acoustic surveys were purposefully extended to the selected fish assemblages (i.e., endemic Coreius species) that was acquired by the size and species selectivity of the gillnet sampling. The relative proportion of fish species in acoustic surveys was allocated based on the composition (%) of the harvest in the gillnet surveys. Geostatistical simulations were likewise used to generate spatial patterns of fish distribution, and to determine the absolute abundance of the selected fish assemblages. We observed both the species composition and the spatial distribution of the selected fish assemblages changed significantly after implementation of new flow regulation in the TGR, wherein an immediate sharp population decline in the Coreius occurred. Our results strongly suggested that the new flow regulation in the TGR impoundment adversely affected downstream fish species, particularly the endemic Coreius species. To determine the factors responsible for the decline, we associated the variation in the fish assemblage patterns with changes in the environment and determined that substrate erosion resulting from trapping practices in the TGR likely played a key role.

DNA analysis on fox faeces and competition induced niche shifts.

PubMed

Dalen, Love; Elmhagen, Bodil; Angerbjorn, Anders

2004-08-01

Interference competition can force inferior competitors to change their distribution patterns. It is, however, possible that the dominant competitor poses a higher threat during certain times of the year, for example during reproduction. In such cases, the inferior competitor is expected to change its distribution accordingly. We used a molecular species identification method on faeces to investigate how the spatial overlap between arctic and red foxes changes between seasons. The results show that arctic and red foxes are sympatric during winter, but allopatric in summer as arctic foxes retreat to higher altitudes further from the tree-line during the breeding season. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Climate change, fisheries management and fishing aptitude affecting spatial and temporal distributions of the Barents Sea cod fishery.

PubMed

Eide, Arne

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to influence spatial and temporal distributions of fish stocks. The aim of this paper is to compare climate change impact on a fishery with other factors impacting the performance of fishing fleets. The fishery in question is the Northeast Arctic cod fishery, a well-documented fishery where data on spatial and temporal distributions are available. A cellular automata model is developed for the purpose of mimicking possible distributional patterns and different management alternatives are studied under varying assumptions on the fleets' fishing aptitude. Fisheries management and fishing aptitude, also including technological development and local knowledge, turn out to have the greatest impact on the spatial distribution of the fishing effort, when comparing the IPCC's SRES A1B scenario with repeated sequences of the current environmental situation over a period of 45 years. In both cases, the highest profits in the simulation period of 45 years are obtained at low exploitation levels and moderate fishing aptitude.

Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

PubMed Central

Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

2014-01-01

Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as species experience changes in distribution in response to climate change. PMID:24466253

Deposition patterns and transport mechanisms for the endocrine disruptor 4-nonylphenol across the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California.

PubMed

Lyons, Rebecca; Van de Bittner, Kyle; Morgan-Jones, Sean

2014-12-01

Dust and particulate distribution patterns are shifting as global climate change brings about longer drought periods. Particulates act as vehicles for long range transport of organic pollutants, depositing at locations far from their source. Nonylphenol, a biodegradation product of nonylphenol polyethoxylate, is a known endocrine disruptor. Nonylphenol polyethoxylate enters the environment as an inert ingredient in pesticide sprays, potentially traveling great distances from its application site. This is of concern when a highly agricultural region, California's Central Valley, lies adjacent to sensitive areas like the Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountains. The distribution and transport mechanisms for 4-nonylphenol were investigated in Eastern Sierra Nevada canyons. Regions close to canyon headwalls showed trace amounts of 4-nonylphenol in surface water, snow, and atmospheric deposition. Exposed areas had yearly average concentrations as high as 9 μg/L. Distribution patterns are consistent with particulate-bound transport. This suggests with increasing drought periods, higher levels of persistent organic pollutants are likely. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Particle Size, Composition, and Ocean Temperature Govern the Global Distribution of Particle Transfer Efficiency to the Mesopelagic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cram, J. A.; Weber, T. S.; Leung, S.; Deutsch, C. A.

2016-02-01

New analyses of geochemical tracer data detect significant differences between ocean basins in the depth scale of particle remineralization, with deepest in high latitudes, shallowest in the subtropical gyres, and intermediate in the tropics. We evaluate the possible causes of this pattern using a mechanistic model of particle dynamics that includes microbial colonization, detachment, and degradation of sinking particles. The model represents the size structure of particles, the effects of mineral ballast (diagnosed from alkalinity and silicate distributions) and seawater temperature (which influences particle velocity and microbial metabolic rates). We find that diagnosed spatial patterns in particle flux profiles can be best reproduced through a combination of surface particle size distribution and temperature, which both favor low transfer efficiency in subtropical gyres, and high transfer efficiency in higher latitudes and intermediate tropical values. Particle mineral content is shown to significantly modulate these patterns, albeit with a high remaining uncertainty. Implications of these mechanisms for changes in biological carbon storage in a warmer ocean are examined.

Survey on how fluctuating petrol prices are affecting Malaysian large city dwellers in changing their trip patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohani, M. M.; Pahazri, N.

2018-04-01

Rising fuel prices shocks have a significant impact on the way of life of most Malaysians. Due to the rising of oil prices, the costs of travel for private vehicle users are therefore increasing. The study was conducted based on the objective of studying the impact of rising fuel prices on three types of trip patterns of Malaysians who are living in the city areas. The three types of trip patterns are, workplaces trip, leisure trip and personal purposes trip during the weekdays. This study was conducted by distributing questionnaires to respondents of private vehicle users in selected city such as Johor Bahru, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Melaka, Perak, Selangor and Kelantan. This study, found that the trip patterns of those who were using their own vehicles had changed after the rising of fuel prices. The changes showed that many private vehicle users were taking steps to save money on petrol by adjusting their trips.

White clouds on Io?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, J. H.

1998-10-01

This paper reports rapid changes in the distribution of bright white patches in one region of Io, close to the subjovian point and the caldera Karei Patera. A stable pattern of white patches in this region was recorded by Voyager in 1979. A strikingly different pattern was shown in the first Galileo-G1 image (1996 June). However, the patterns in another Galileo-G1 and several Galileo-G2 images (1996 September) were similar although not identical to that seen by Voyager. Hubble Space Telescope images in 1994 and 1995 also resembled the Voyager pattern. The changes in the first Galileo image are not easily attributable to differences in lighting and viewing angles, and appear to be real physical changes, which occurred over a matter of days during the Galileo-G1 encounter. They also do not have the characteristics expected of surface deposits. I suggest that some of these white patches may be drifting opaque white clouds. They may be emitted from volcanic sources which have recently been reported in this area.

Anthropogenic aerosols and the distribution of past large-scale precipitation change

DOE PAGES

Wang, Chien

2015-12-28

In this paper, the climate response of precipitation to the effects of anthropogenic aerosols is a critical while not yet fully understood aspect in climate science. Results of selected models that participated the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and the data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project suggest that, throughout the tropics and also in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, aerosols have largely dominated the distribution of precipitation changes in reference to the preindustrial era in the second half of the last century. Aerosol-induced cooling has offset some of the warming caused by the greenhouse gases from the tropics tomore » the Arctic and thus formed the gradients of surface temperature anomaly that enable the revealed precipitation change patterns to occur. Improved representation of aerosol-cloud interaction has been demonstrated as the key factor for models to reproduce consistent distributions of past precipitation change with the reanalysis data.« less

Distributed patterns of activity in sensory cortex reflect the precision of multiple items maintained in visual short-term memory.

PubMed

Emrich, Stephen M; Riggall, Adam C; Larocque, Joshua J; Postle, Bradley R

2013-04-10

Traditionally, load sensitivity of sustained, elevated activity has been taken as an index of storage for a limited number of items in visual short-term memory (VSTM). Recently, studies have demonstrated that the contents of a single item held in VSTM can be decoded from early visual cortex, despite the fact that these areas do not exhibit elevated, sustained activity. It is unknown, however, whether the patterns of neural activity decoded from sensory cortex change as a function of load, as one would expect from a region storing multiple representations. Here, we use multivoxel pattern analysis to examine the neural representations of VSTM in humans across multiple memory loads. In an important extension of previous findings, our results demonstrate that the contents of VSTM can be decoded from areas that exhibit a transient response to visual stimuli, but not from regions that exhibit elevated, sustained load-sensitive delay-period activity. Moreover, the neural information present in these transiently activated areas decreases significantly with increasing load, indicating load sensitivity of the patterns of activity that support VSTM maintenance. Importantly, the decrease in classification performance as a function of load is correlated with within-subject changes in mnemonic resolution. These findings indicate that distributed patterns of neural activity in putatively sensory visual cortex support the representation and precision of information in VSTM.

Climate suitability for European ticks: assessing species distribution models against null models and projection under AR5 climate.

PubMed

Williams, Hefin Wyn; Cross, Dónall Eoin; Crump, Heather Louise; Drost, Cornelis Jan; Thomas, Christopher James

2015-08-28

There is increasing evidence that the geographic distribution of tick species is changing. Whilst correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to predict areas that are potentially suitable for ticks, models have often been assessed without due consideration for spatial patterns in the data that may inflate the influence of predictor variables on species distributions. This study used null models to rigorously evaluate the role of climate and the potential for climate change to affect future climate suitability for eight European tick species, including several important disease vectors. We undertook a comparative assessment of the performance of Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance SDMs based on observed data against those of null models based on null species distributions or null climate data. This enabled the identification of species whose distributions demonstrate a significant association with climate variables. Latest generation (AR5) climate projections were subsequently used to project future climate suitability under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Seven out of eight tick species exhibited strong climatic signals within their observed distributions. Future projections intimate varying degrees of northward shift in climate suitability for these tick species, with the greatest shifts forecasted under the most extreme RCPs. Despite the high performance measure obtained for the observed model of Hyalomma lusitanicum, it did not perform significantly better than null models; this may result from the effects of non-climatic factors on its distribution. By comparing observed SDMs with null models, our results allow confidence that we have identified climate signals in tick distributions that are not simply a consequence of spatial patterns in the data. Observed climate-driven SDMs for seven out of eight species performed significantly better than null models, demonstrating the vulnerability of these tick species to the effects of climate change in the future.

Wrinkling and collapse of mesh reinforced membrane inflated beam under bending

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Qiang; Wang, Changguo; Xue, Zhiming; Xie, Zhimin; Tan, Huifeng

2016-11-01

A novel concept of mesh reinforced membrane (MRM) is proposed in this paper. The tensile collapse mechanism of MRM is elucidated based on three obvious deformed stages. An improved Shell-Membrane model is used to predict the wrinkling and collapse of MRM inflated beam which is verified by a non-contact experiment based on the digital image correlation technique. Further the wrinkling details including the wrinkling evolution, pattern, shape, stress distribution are simulated to evaluate the functions of MRM for loading-carrying capacity of inflated beam. Pressure resistant performance of inflated beam was studied at last. The results revealed that MRM shows a great improvement on the collapse moment of inflated beam. MRM contributes to restrain wrinkling evolution by changing the transfer path of loadings which results from dispersing stress distribution and changing wrinkling pattern. The results show good references to the wrinkling control and the improvement of load-carrying capacity of inflated beam.

Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin M.; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Nied, Manuela

2013-04-01

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic climate change on weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin. The study is based on an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5 MPIOM coupled model forced with historical and SRES A1B greenhouse gas concentrations. Relevant weather types, occuring in association with recent flood events, are identified in the ERA40 reanalysis data set. The weather types are classified with the SANDRA cluster algorithm. Distributions of tropospheric humidity content, 500 hPa geopotential height and 500 hPa temperature over Europe are taken as input parameters. 8 (out of 40) weather types are found to be associated with flooding events in the Elbe river basin. The majority of these (6) typically occur during winter, while 2 are warm season patterns. Downscaling reveals characteristic precipitation anomalies associated with the individual patterns. The 8 flood relevant weather types are then identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. The effect of climate change on these patterns is investigated by comparing the last 30 years of the previous century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. According to the model the frequency of most patterns will not change. 5 patterns may experience a statistically significant increase in the mean precipitation over the catchment area and 4 patterns an increase in extreme precipitation. Persistence may slightly decrease for 2 patterns and remain unchanged for the others. Overall, this indicates a moderate increase in the risk for Elbe river flooding, related to changes in the weather patterns, in the coming decades.

Is expert opinion enough? A critical assessment of the evidence for potential impacts of climate change on tick-borne diseases.

PubMed

Randolph, Sarah E

2013-12-01

Before attributing cause and consequence to climate change, the precise patterns of change must be known. Ground records across much of Europe show a 1-2 °C rise in temperatures in 1989 with no significant rise since then. The timing and spatial uniformity of this pattern, relative to changes in the distribution and incidence of many vector-borne diseases, are sufficient to falsify most simple claims that climate change is the principal cause of disease emergence. Furthermore, age-specific increases in incidence indicate causes other than, or in addition to, climate change. Unfortunately, many public health professionals repeat the received wisdom that climate change is worsening the burden of indirectly transmitted infections; this 'expert opinion' soon becomes consensus dogma divorced from quantitative evidence. The pressing need is to gather appropriate data to test the simple concept that the composition and relative importance of disparate multifactorial factors, commonly integrated within a causal nexus, will inevitably vary with the geographical, cultural, socio-economical, wildlife, etc. context. The greatest impact of warming occurs at the geographical limits of current distributions, where low temperatures limit the hazard of infected vectors. Within core endemic regions, changing exposure of humans to this hazard, through changing socio-economic factors is evidently more important amongst both the poor and the wealthy.

Characterization of traffic-related PM concentration distribution and fluctuation patterns in near-highway urban residential street canyons.

PubMed

Hahn, Intaek; Brixey, Laurie A; Wiener, Russell W; Henkle, Stacy W; Baldauf, Richard

2009-12-01

Analyses of outdoor traffic-related particulate matter (PM) concentration distribution and fluctuation patterns in urban street canyons within a microscale distance of less than 500 m from a highway source are presented as part of the results from the Brooklyn Traffic Real-Time Ambient Pollutant Penetration and Environmental Dispersion (B-TRAPPED) study. Various patterns of spatial and temporal changes in the street canyon PM concentrations were investigated using time-series data of real-time PM concentrations measured during multiple monitoring periods. Concurrent time-series data of local street canyon wind conditions and wind data from the John F. Kennedy (JFK) International Airport National Weather Service (NWS) were used to characterize the effects of various wind conditions on the behavior of street canyon PM concentrations.Our results suggest that wind direction may strongly influence time-averaged mean PM concentration distribution patterns in near-highway urban street canyons. The rooftop-level wind speeds were found to be strongly correlated with the PM concentration fluctuation intensities in the middle sections of the street blocks. The ambient turbulence generated by shifting local wind directions (angles) showed a good correlation with the PM concentration fluctuation intensities along the entire distance of the first and second street blocks only when the wind angle standard deviations were larger than 30 degrees. Within-canyon turbulent shearing, caused by fluctuating local street canyon wind speeds, showed no correlation with PM concentration fluctuation intensities. The time-averaged mean PM concentration distribution along the longitudinal distances of the street blocks when wind direction was mostly constantly parallel to the street was found to be similar to the distribution pattern for the entire monitoring period when wind direction fluctuated wildly. Finally, we showed that two different PM concentration metrics-time-averaged mean concentration and number of concentration peaks above a certain threshold level-can possibly lead to different assessments of spatial concentration distribution patterns.

Exploiting the Adaptation Dynamics to Predict the Distribution of Beneficial Fitness Effects

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Adaptation of asexual populations is driven by beneficial mutations and therefore the dynamics of this process, besides other factors, depends on the distribution of beneficial fitness effects. It is known that on uncorrelated fitness landscapes, this distribution can only be of three types: truncated, exponential and power law. We performed extensive stochastic simulations to study the adaptation dynamics on rugged fitness landscapes, and identified two quantities that can be used to distinguish the underlying distribution of beneficial fitness effects. The first quantity studied here is the fitness difference between successive mutations that spread in the population, which is found to decrease in the case of truncated distributions, remains nearly a constant for exponentially decaying distributions and increases when the fitness distribution decays as a power law. The second quantity of interest, namely, the rate of change of fitness with time also shows quantitatively different behaviour for different beneficial fitness distributions. The patterns displayed by the two aforementioned quantities are found to hold good for both low and high mutation rates. We discuss how these patterns can be exploited to determine the distribution of beneficial fitness effects in microbial experiments. PMID:26990188

Spatiotemporal patterns of unburned areas within fire perimeters in the northwestern United States from 1984 to 2014

Treesearch

Arjan J. H. Meddens; Crystal A. Kolden; James A. Lutz; John T. Abatzoglou; Andrew T. Hudak

2018-01-01

A warming climate, fire exclusion, and land cover changes are altering the conditions that produced historical fire regimes and facilitating increased recent wildfire activity in the northwestern United States. Understanding the impacts of changing fire regimes on forest recruitment and succession, species distributions, carbon cycling, and ecosystem services is...

Evidence for a prepupal diapause in the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae, Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae)

Treesearch

Barbara J. Bentz; E. Matthew Hansen

2017-01-01

Dormancy strategies, including diapause and quiescence, enable insects to evade adverse conditions and ensure seasonally appropriate life stages. A mechanistic understanding of a species’ dormancy is necessary to predict population response in a changing climate. Climate change is influencing distribution patterns and population success of many species, including...

Modeling effects of climate change and fire management on western white pine (Pinus monticola) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Jason A. Clark; Robert E. Keane

2011-01-01

Climate change is projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. Mountainous landscapes have been shown to be...

Thermal and athermal crackling noise in ferroelastic nanostructures.

PubMed

Zhao, Z; Ding, X; Sun, J; Salje, E K H

2014-04-09

The evolution of ferroelastic microstructures under external shear is determined by large-scale molecular dynamics simulations in two and three dimensions. Ferroelastic pattern formation was found to be almost identical in two and three dimensions, with only the ferroelastic transition temperature changing. The twin patterns generated by shear deformation depend strongly on temperature, with high wall densities nucleating under optimized temperature conditions. The dynamical tweed and mobile kink movement inside the twin walls is continuous and thermally activated at high temperatures, and becomes jerky and athermal at low temperatures. With decreasing temperature, the statistical distributions of dynamical tweed and kinks vary from a Vogel-Fulcher law P(E)~exp-(E/(T-TVF)) to an athermal power-law distribution P(E)~E-E. During the yield event, the nucleation of needles and kinks is always jerky, and the energy of the jerks is power-law distributed. Low-temperature yield proceeds via one large avalanche. With increasing temperature, the large avalanche is thermally broken up into a multitude of small segments. The power-law exponents reflect the changes in temperature, even in the athermal regime.

Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.

1997-12-31

The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less

Mixed reality framework for collective motion patterns of swarms with delay coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szwaykowska, Klementyna; Schwartz, Ira

The formation of coherent patterns in swarms of interacting self-propelled autonomous agents is an important subject for many applications within the field of distributed robotic systems. However, there are significant logistical challenges associated with testing fully distributed systems in real-world settings. In this paper, we provide a rigorous theoretical justification for the use of mixed-reality experiments as a stepping stone to fully physical testing of distributed robotic systems. We also model and experimentally realize a mixed-reality large-scale swarm of delay-coupled agents. Our analyses, assuming agents communicating over an Erdos-Renyi network, demonstrate the existence of stable coherent patterns that can be achieved only with delay coupling and that are robust to decreasing network connectivity and heterogeneity in agent dynamics. We show how the bifurcation structure for emergence of different patterns changes with heterogeneity in agent acceleration capabilities and limited connectivity in the network as a function of coupling strength and delay. Our results are verified through simulation as well as preliminary experimental results of delay-induced pattern formation in a mixed-reality swarm. K. S. was a National Research Council postdoctoral fellow. I.B.S was supported by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory funding (N0001414WX00023) and office of Naval Research (N0001414WX20610).

Sulphated glycosaminoglycans and proteoglycans in the developing vertebral column of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

PubMed

Hannesson, Kirsten O; Ytteborg, Elisabeth; Takle, Harald; Enersen, Grethe; Bæverfjord, Grete; Pedersen, Mona E

2015-08-01

In the present study, the distribution of sulphated glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) in the developing vertebral column of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) at 700, 900, 1100 and 1400 d° was examined by light microscopy. The mineralization pattern was outlined by Alizarin red S and soft structures by Alcian blue. The temporal and spatial distribution patterns of different types of GAGs: chondroitin-4-sulphate/dermatan sulphate, chondroitin-6-sulphate, chondroitin-0-sulphate and keratan sulphate were addressed by immunohistochemistry using monoclonal antibodies against the different GAGs. The specific pattern obtained with the different antibodies suggests a unique role of the different GAG types in pattern formation and mineralization. In addition, the distribution of the different GAG types in normal and malformed vertebral columns from 15 g salmon was compared. A changed expression pattern of GAGs was found in the malformed vertebrae, indicating the involvement of these molecules during the pathogenesis. The molecular size of proteoglycans (PGs) in the vertebrae carrying GAGs was analysed with western blotting, and mRNA transcription of the PGs aggrecan, decorin, biglycan, fibromodulin and lumican by real-time qPCR. Our study reveals the importance of GAGs in development of vertebral column also in Atlantic salmon and indicates that a more comprehensive approach is necessary to completely understand the processes involved.

Proton beam shaped by “particle lens” formed by laser-driven hot electrons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhai, S. H.; Shen, B. F., E-mail: bfshen@mail.shcnc.ac.cn, E-mail: wwpvin@hotmail.com, E-mail: yqgu@caep.cn; Wang, W. P., E-mail: bfshen@mail.shcnc.ac.cn, E-mail: wwpvin@hotmail.com, E-mail: yqgu@caep.cn

2016-05-23

Two-dimensional tailoring of a proton beam is realized by a “particle lens” in our experiment. A large quantity of electrons, generated by an intense femtosecond laser irradiating a polymer target, produces an electric field strong enough to change the trajectory and distribution of energetic protons flying through the electron area. The experiment shows that a strip pattern of the proton beam appears when hot electrons initially converge inside the plastic plate. Then the shape of the proton beam changes to a “fountain-like” pattern when these hot electrons diffuse after propagating a distance.

Deviations from Rayleigh statistics in ultrasonic speckle.

PubMed

Tuthill, T A; Sperry, R H; Parker, K J

1988-04-01

The statistics of speckle patterns in ultrasound images have potential for tissue characterization. In "fully developed speckle" from many random scatterers, the amplitude is widely recognized as possessing a Rayleigh distribution. This study examines how scattering populations and signal processing can produce non-Rayleigh distributions. The first order speckle statistics are shown to depend on random scatterer density and the amplitude and spacing of added periodic scatterers. Envelope detection, amplifier compression, and signal bandwidth are also shown to cause distinct changes in the signal distribution.

Impacts of changing ocean circulation on the distribution of marine microplastic litter.

PubMed

Welden, Natalie Ac; Lusher, Amy L

2017-05-01

Marine plastic pollution is currently a major scientific focus, with attention paid to its distribution and impacts within ecosystems. With recent estimates indicating that the mass of plastic released to the marine environment may reach 250 million metric tons by 2025, the effects of plastic on our oceans are set to increase. Distribution of microplastics, those plastics measuring less than 5 mm, are of increasing concern because they represent an increasing proportion of marine litter and are known to interact with species in a range of marine habitats. The local abundance of microplastic is dependent on a complex interaction between the scale of local plastic sources and prevailing environmental conditions; as a result, microplastic distribution is highly heterogeneous. Circulation models have been used to predict plastic distribution; however, current models do not consider future variation in circulation patterns and weather systems caused by a changing climate. In this study, we discuss the potential impacts of global climate change on the abundance and distribution of marine plastic pollution. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:483-487. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa.

PubMed

Lyam, Paul Terwase; Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to impact species' genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species' ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species' adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change.

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa

PubMed Central

Duque-Lazo, Joaquín; Durka, Walter; Hauenschild, Frank; Schnitzler, Jan; Michalak, Ingo; Ogundipe, Oluwatoyin Temitayo; Muellner-Riehl, Alexandra Nora

2018-01-01

Climate change is predicted to impact species’ genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species’ ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species’ adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change. PMID:29659603

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Analysis for Regional Climate Change Using Mathematical Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, M.; Ghosh, S. K.

2015-07-01

Of late, significant changes in climate with their grave consequences have posed great challenges on humankind. Thus, the detection and assessment of climatic changes on a regional scale is gaining importance, since it helps to adopt adequate mitigation and adaptation measures. In this paper, we have presented a novel approach for detecting spatio-temporal pattern of regional climate change by exploiting the theory of mathematical morphology. At first, the various climatic zones in the region have been identified by using multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) of different climate variables of interest. Then, the directional granulometry with four different structuring elements has been studied to detect the temporal changes in spatial distribution of the identified climatic zones in the region and further insights have been drawn with respect to morphological uncertainty index and Hurst exponent. The approach has been evaluated with the daily time series data of land surface temperature (LST) and precipitation rate, collected from Microsoft Research - Fetch Climate Explorer, to analyze the spatio-temporal climatic pattern-change in the Eastern and North-Eastern regions of India throughout four quarters of the 20th century.

Evidence of territoriality and species interactions from spatial point-pattern analyses of subarctic-nesting geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiter, Matthew E.; Andersen, David E.

2013-01-01

Quantifying spatial patterns of bird nests and nest fate provides insights into processes influencing a species’ distribution. At Cape Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, recent declines in breeding Eastern Prairie Population Canada geese (Branta canadensis interior) has coincided with increasing populations of nesting lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) and Ross’s geese (Chen rossii). We conducted a spatial analysis of point patterns using Canada goose nest locations and nest fate, and lesser snow goose nest locations at two study areas in northern Manitoba with different densities and temporal durations of sympatric nesting Canada and lesser snow geese. Specifically, we assessed (1) whether Canada geese exhibited territoriality and at what scale and nest density; and (2) whether spatial patterns of Canada goose nest fate were associated with the density of nesting lesser snow geese as predicted by the protective-association hypothesis. Between 2001 and 2007, our data suggest that Canada geese were territorial at the scale of nearest neighbors, but were aggregated when considering overall density of conspecifics at slightly broader spatial scales. The spatial distribution of nest fates indicated that lesser snow goose nest proximity and density likely influence Canada goose nest fate. Our analyses of spatial point patterns suggested that continued changes in the distribution and abundance of breeding lesser snow geese on the Hudson Bay Lowlands may have impacts on the reproductive performance of Canada geese, and subsequently the spatial distribution of Canada goose nests.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Japanese encephalitis Disease and Detection of Disease Hotspots: a Case Study of Gorakhpur District, Uttar Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, S.; Gupta, R. D.

2014-11-01

In recent times, Japanese Encephalitis (JE) has emerged as a serious public health problem. In India, JE outbreaks were recently reported in Uttar Pradesh, Gorakhpur. The present study presents an approach to use GIS for analyzing the reported cases of JE in the Gorakhpur district based on spatial analysis to bring out the spatial and temporal dynamics of the JE epidemic. The study investigates spatiotemporal pattern of the occurrence of disease and detection of the JE hotspot. Spatial patterns of the JE disease can provide an understanding of geographical changes. Geospatial distribution of the JE disease outbreak is being investigated since 2005 in this study. The JE incidence data for the years 2005 to 2010 is used. The data is then geo-coded at block level. Spatial analysis is used to evaluate autocorrelation in JE distribution and to test the cases that are clustered or dispersed in space. The Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation technique is used to predict the pattern of JE incidence distribution prevalent across the study area. Moran's I Index (Moran's I) statistics is used to evaluate autocorrelation in spatial distribution. The Getis-Ord Gi*(d) is used to identify the disease areas. The results represent spatial disease patterns from 2005 to 2010, depicting spatially clustered patterns with significant differences between the blocks. It is observed that the blocks on the built up areas reported higher incidences.

Cellular organization of pre-mRNA splicing factors in several tissues. Changes in the uterus by hormone action.

PubMed

George-Téllez, R; Segura-Valdez, M L; González-Santos, L; Jiménez-García, L F

2002-05-01

In the mammalian cell nucleus, splicing factors are distributed in nuclear domains known as speckles or splicing factor compartments (SFCs). In cultured cells, these domains are dynamic and reflect transcriptional and splicing activities. We used immunofluorescence and confocal microscopy to monitor whether splicing factors in differentiated cells display similar features. Speckled patterns are observed in rat hepatocytes, beta-cells, bronchial and intestine epithelia and also in three cell types of the uterus. Moreover, the number, distribution and sizes of the speckles vary among them. In addition, we studied variations in the circular form (shape) of speckles in uterine cells that are transcriptionally modified by a hormone action. During proestrus of the estral cycle, speckles are irregular in shape while in diestrus I they are circular. Experimentally, in castrated rats luminal epithelial cells show a pattern where speckles are dramatically rounded, but they recover their irregular shape rapidly after an injection of estradiol. The same results were observed in muscle and gland epithelial cells of the uterus. We concluded that different speckled patterns are present in various cells types in differentiated tissues and that these patterns change in the uterus depending upon the presence or absence of hormones such as estradiol.

Change in the Body Mass Index Distribution for Women: Analysis of Surveys from 37 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

PubMed Central

Razak, Fahad; Corsi, Daniel J.; SV Subramanian

2013-01-01

Background There are well-documented global increases in mean body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of overweight (BMI≥25.0 kg/m2) and obese (BMI≥30.0 kg/m2). Previous analyses, however, have failed to report whether this weight gain is shared equally across the population. We examined the change in BMI across all segments of the BMI distribution in a wide range of countries, and assessed whether the BMI distribution is changing between cross-sectional surveys conducted at different time points. Methods and Findings We used nationally representative surveys of women between 1991–2008, in 37 low- and middle-income countries from the Demographic Health Surveys ([DHS] n = 732,784). There were a total of 96 country-survey cycles, and the number of survey cycles per country varied between two (21/37) and five (1/37). Using multilevel regression models, between countries and within countries over survey cycles, the change in mean BMI was used to predict the standard deviation of BMI, the prevalence of underweight, overweight, and obese. Changes in median BMI were used to predict the 5th and 95th percentile of the BMI distribution. Quantile-quantile plots were used to examine the change in the BMI distribution between surveys conducted at different times within countries. At the population level, increasing mean BMI is related to increasing standard deviation of BMI, with the BMI at the 95th percentile rising at approximately 2.5 times the rate of the 5th percentile. Similarly, there is an approximately 60% excess increase in prevalence of overweight and 40% excess in obese, relative to the decline in prevalence of underweight. Quantile-quantile plots demonstrate a consistent pattern of unequal weight gain across percentiles of the BMI distribution as mean BMI increases, with increased weight gain at high percentiles of the BMI distribution and little change at low percentiles. Major limitations of these results are that repeated population surveys cannot examine weight gain within an individual over time, most of the countries only had data from two surveys and the study sample only contains women in low- and middle-income countries, potentially limiting generalizability of findings. Conclusions Mean changes in BMI, or in single parameters such as percent overweight, do not capture the divergence in the degree of weight gain occurring between BMI at low and high percentiles. Population weight gain is occurring disproportionately among groups with already high baseline BMI levels. Studies that characterize population change should examine patterns of change across the entire distribution and not just average trends or single parameters. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23335861

Late Quaternary climate stability and the origins and future of global grass endemism.

PubMed

Sandel, Brody; Monnet, Anne-Christine; Govaerts, Rafaël; Vorontsova, Maria

2017-01-01

Earth's climate is dynamic, with strong glacial-interglacial cycles through the Late Quaternary. These climate changes have had major consequences for the distributions of species through time, and may have produced historical legacies in modern ecological patterns. Unstable regions are expected to contain few endemic species, many species with strong dispersal abilities, and to be susceptible to the establishment of exotic species from relatively stable regions. We test these hypotheses with a global dataset of grass species distributions. We described global patterns of endemism, variation in the potential for rapid population spread, and exotic establishment in grasses. We then examined relationships of these response variables to a suite of predictor variables describing the mean, seasonality and spatial pattern of current climate and the temperature change velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Grass endemism is strongly concentrated in regions with historically stable climates. It also depends on the spatial pattern of current climate, with many endemic species in areas with regionally unusual climates. There was no association between the proportion of annual species (representing potential population spread rates) and climate change velocity. Rather, the proportion of annual species depended very strongly on current temperature. Among relatively stable regions (<10 m year -1 ), increasing velocity decreased the proportion of species that were exotic, but this pattern reversed for higher-velocity regions (>10 m year -1 ). Exotic species were most likely to originate from relatively stable regions with climates similar to those found in their exotic range. Long-term climate stability has important influences on global endemism patterns, largely confirming previous work from other groups. Less well recognized is its role in generating patterns of exotic species establishment. This result provides an important historical context for the conjecture that climate change in the near future may promote species invasions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Insect-plant-pathogen interactions as shaped by future climate: effects on biology, distribution, and implications for agriculture.

PubMed

Trębicki, Piotr; Dáder, Beatriz; Vassiliadis, Simone; Fereres, Alberto

2017-12-01

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the main anthropogenic gas which has drastically increased since the industrial revolution, and current concentrations are projected to double by the end of this century. As a consequence, elevated CO 2 is expected to alter the earths' climate, increase global temperatures and change weather patterns. This is likely to have both direct and indirect impacts on plants, insect pests, plant pathogens and their distribution, and is therefore problematic for the security of future food production. This review summarizes the latest findings and highlights current knowledge gaps regarding the influence of climate change on insect, plant and pathogen interactions with an emphasis on agriculture and food production. Direct effects of climate change, including increased CO 2 concentration, temperature, patterns of rainfall and severe weather events that impact insects (namely vectors of plant pathogens) are discussed. Elevated CO 2 and temperature, together with plant pathogen infection, can considerably change plant biochemistry and therefore plant defense responses. This can have substantial consequences on insect fecundity, feeding rates, survival, population size, and dispersal. Generally, changes in host plant quality due to elevated CO 2 (e.g., carbon to nitrogen ratios in C3 plants) negatively affect insect pests. However, compensatory feeding, increased population size and distribution have also been reported for some agricultural insect pests. This underlines the importance of additional research on more targeted, individual insect-plant scenarios at specific locations to fully understand the impact of a changing climate on insect-plant-pathogen interactions. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Enhanced freight sketch planning tool for assessing multimodal investment strategies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-09-01

In recent years, there have been dramatic changes in the volume and movement of freight within the : US and internationally. Traditional distribution systems have been replaced by just-in-time driven : processes and freight transportation patterns ha...

Use of acoustic tools to reveal otherwise cryptic responses of forest elephants to oil exploration.

PubMed

Wrege, Peter H; Rowland, Elizabeth D; Thompson, Bruce G; Batruch, Nikolas

2010-12-01

Most evaluations of the effects of human activities on wild animals have focused on estimating changes in abundance and distribution of threatened species; however, ecosystem disturbances also affect aspects of animal behavior such as short-term movement, activity budgets, and reproduction. It may take a long time for changes in behavior to manifest as changes in abundance or distribution. Therefore, it is important to have methods with which to detect short-term behavioral responses to human activity. We used continuous acoustic and seismic monitoring to evaluate the short-term effects of seismic prospecting for oil on forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) in Gabon, Central Africa. We monitored changes in elephant abundance and activity as a function of the frequency and intensity of acoustic and seismic signals from dynamite detonation and human activity. Elephants did not flee the area being explored; the relative number of elephants increased in a seasonal pattern typical of elsewhere in the ecosystem. In the exploration area, however, they became more nocturnal. Neither the intensity nor the frequency of dynamite blasts affected the frequency of calling or the daily pattern of elephant activity. Nevertheless, the shift of activity to nocturnal hours became more pronounced as human activity neared each monitored area of forest. This change in activity pattern and its likely causes would not have been detected through standard monitoring methods, which are not sensitive to behavioral changes over short time scales (e.g., dung transects, point counts) or cover a limited area (e.g., camera traps). Simultaneous acoustic monitoring of animal communication, human, and environmental sounds allows the documentation of short-term behavioral changes in response to human disturbance. © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population trends and distribution of Common Murre Uria aalge colonies in Washington, 1996-2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Susan M; Lyons, James E.

2017-01-01

Periodic assessments of population trends and changes in spatial distribution are valuable for managing marine birds and their breeding habitats, particularly when evaluating long-term response to threats such as oil spills, predation pressure, and changing ocean conditions. We evaluated recent trends in abundance and distribution of the Common Murre Uria aalge within Copalis, Quillayute Needles, and Flattery Rocks National Wildlife Refuges, which include all murre colonies in Washington except one, off-refuge, on Tatoosh Island. In 1996-2001 and 2010-2015, aerial photographic surveys were conducted during the incubation phase (mid-June through mid-July) each year. Using images from film (1996-2001) and digital (2010-2015) cameras that included all parts of each colony, we manually counted murres. We estimated population trend as annual percent change in whole-colony counts using an overdispersed Poisson regression model. Overall, numbers of murres counted at breeding colonies in Washington increased by 8.8% per year (95% CI 3.0%-14.9%) during 1996–2015. The overall statewide increase was driven by an increase at colonies in northern Washington of approximately 11% per year (95% CI 4.5%-17.8%). Despite an increasing trend, abundance remains lower than levels in the late 1970s, and the spatial distribution has changed. Colonies in southern Washington - where murres were historically the most abundant - are no longer active, or only minimally so, whereas colonies in the north - which were rarely active in the early 1970s - are now the largest. There was high variability in spatial distribution among years, a pattern that indicates a need for coordinated monitoring and movement studies throughout the California Current System to understand dispersal and colonization. Our results indicate that future management of refuge islands could protect both current and historic colony locations, given the patterns of colony dynamics and the uncertainty about long-term effects of a changing ocean ecosystem and predation pressure on the status of murres.

The comparative phylogeography of east coast estuarine fishes in formerly glaciated sites: Persistence versus recolonization in Cyprinodon variegatus ovinus and Fundulus heteroclitus macrolepidotus.

PubMed

Haney, Robert A; Dionne, Michelle; Puritz, Jon; Rand, David M

2009-01-01

Species distributions may be dramatically affected by climatic variability, such as occurred during Pleistocene glaciation. Populations of coastal organisms could have been affected directly by ice movement or through sea level change. Response could involve shifts in distribution southwards or persistence through the full range or in limited high-latitude refugia. Comparative studies of the response of ecologically similar species can provide a useful complement to those examining response across disparate species in defining what parameters influence persistence. Patterns of mitochondrial genetic variation in 2 estuarine fish subspecies from the Northwest Atlantic, Fundulus heteroclitus macrolepidotus and Cyprinodon variegatus ovinus, indicate that ecological similarity does not necessarily predict propensity for glacial persistence. Fundulus heteroclitus macrolepidotus is highly diverse in glaciated regions, with isolated populations whose origins predate the last glacial maximum and may have recently expanded it's range to the south from New England. However, within glaciated regions, signals of population growth and distributional shifts indicate a dynamic Pleistocene history for F. h. macrolepidotus, in contrast with recent studies involving microsatellites. A different pattern is found in C. v. ovinus, which is depauperate in formerly glaciated sites, with a clear signal of recent recolonization of glaciated regions from the south. Genetic differentiation in glaciated areas is consistent with isolation after glacial withdrawal. In C. v. ovinus, rapidly evolving microsatellite loci show a similar pattern to mitochondrial DNA but may be reaching equilibrium on small spatial scales. These contrasting patterns of variation illustrate how ecologically similar species can respond to large-scale environmental change in distinct ways.

Specialty distribution of physician assistants and nurse practitioners in North Carolina.

PubMed

Fraher, Erin P; Morgan, Perri; Johnson, Anna

2016-04-01

Physician workforce projections often include scenarios that forecast physician shortages under different assumptions about the deployment of physician assistants (PAs) and nurse practitioners (NPs). These scenarios generally assume that PAs and NPs are an interchangeable resource and that their specialty distributions do not change over time. This study investigated changes in PA and NP specialty distribution in North Carolina between 1997 and 2013. The data show that over the study period, PAs and NPs practiced in a wide range of specialties, but each profession had a specific pattern. The proportion of PAs-but not NPs-reporting practice in primary care dropped significantly. PAs were more likely than NPs to report practice in urgent care, emergency medicine, and surgical subspecialties. Physician workforce models need to account for the different and changing specialization trends of NPs and PAs.

Diurnal variations in maize and soybean vegetation indices from continuous measurements of ground-based spectral reflectance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkebauer, T. J.; Walter-Shea, E. A.

2017-12-01

Vegetation indices, based on canopy spectral reflectance, are widely used to infer physical and biological characteristics of vegetation. Understanding the changes in remotely sensed signals as vegetation responds to its changing environment is essential for full assessment of canopy structure and function. Canopy-level reflectance has been measured at Nebraska AmeriFlux sites US-Ne1, US-Ne2 and US-Ne3 for most years since flux measurements were initiated in 2001. Tower-mounted spectral sensors provided 10-minute averaged reflectance (in PAR and NIR spectral regions) every half hour through the growing season for maize and soybean. Canopy reflectance varied over diurnal and seasonal time periods which led to variations in vegetation indices. One source of variation is due to the interaction of incident solar radiant energy with canopy structure (e.g., reflectance varies with changes in solar zenith angle and direct beam fraction, vegetative fraction, and leaf angle distribution). Another source of variation results from changes in canopy function (e.g., fluctuations in gross primary production and invocation of photoprotective mechanisms with plant stress). We present here a series of diurnal "patterns" of vegetation indices (including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Chlorophyll Index) for maize and soybean under mostly clear sky conditions. We demonstrate that diurnal patterns change as the LAI of the canopy changes through the course of the growing season in a somewhat predictable pattern from plant emergence (low vegetative cover) through peak green LAI (full vegetation cover). However, there are changes in the diurnal pattern that we have yet to fully understand; this variation in pattern may indicate variation in canopy function. Initially, we have explored the pattern changes qualitatively and are currently developing more quantitative approaches.

Stress distributions of a bracket type orthodontic miniscrew and the surrounding bone under moment loadings: Three-dimensional finite element analysis

PubMed Central

Ajami, Shabnam; Mina, Ahmad; Nabavizadeh, Seyed Amin

2016-01-01

Objectives: To evaluate the effect of moments and the combination of forces and moments on the mechanical properties of a bracket type miniscrew, resembling engagement of a rectangular wire by three-dimensional (3D) finite element study. Materials and Methods: By solid work software (Dassaunlt systems solid works, concord, Mass), a 3D miniscrew model of 6, 8, 10 mm lengths was designed and inserted in the osseous block, consisted of the cortical, and cancellous bones. The stress distributions, maximum stresses, and deflections of the miniscrew were evaluated for all parts using ANSYS (Work Bench, 2014). Results: As the magnitudes of the load increased from 100 to 200, 400 and 800 grf-mm, the peak of stresses in the 6 mm long miniscrew were increased from 7.7 to 61.5 Mpa. The maximum values of Von Mises in the cancellous bone were tremendously lower in comparison to the cortical bone by one hundredth. As the length of the miniscrew in contact with the bone was increased, the amounts and patterns of stress distribution in the cortical bone and the miniscrew did not change significantly. Conclusions: As the moment magnitude increased, the pick stresses increased linearly. The existence of cancellous bone was not significantly responsible for the stress distribution. The pattern of stress distribution did not change by the length of the miniscrew. PMID:27127753

Robust organelle size extractions from elastic scattering measurements of single cells (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaday, Ashley E.; Draham, Robert; Berger, Andrew J.

2016-04-01

The goal of this project is to estimate non-nuclear organelle size distributions in single cells by measuring angular scattering patterns and fitting them with Mie theory. Simulations have indicated that the large relative size distribution of organelles (mean:width≈2) leads to unstable Mie fits unless scattering is collected at polar angles less than 20 degrees. Our optical system has therefore been modified to collect angles down to 10 degrees. Initial validations will be performed on polystyrene bead populations whose size distributions resemble those of cell organelles. Unlike with the narrow bead distributions that are often used for calibration, we expect to see an order-of-magnitude improvement in the stability of the size estimates as the minimum angle decreases from 20 to 10 degrees. Scattering patterns will then be acquired and analyzed from single cells (EMT6 mouse cancer cells), both fixed and live, at multiple time points. Fixed cells, with no changes in organelle sizes over time, will be measured to determine the fluctuation level in estimated size distribution due to measurement imperfections alone. Subsequent measurements on live cells will determine whether there is a higher level of fluctuation that could be attributed to dynamic changes in organelle size. Studies on unperturbed cells are precursors to ones in which the effects of exogenous agents are monitored over time.

Update on imbalanced distribution of endodontists: 1995-2006.

PubMed

Waldman, H Barry; Bruder, George A

2009-05-01

Past studies on the number of endodontists in the United States indicated an imbalanced distribution of private practice endodontic practitioners in most regions, states, counties, and zip code areas of the country. The availability of more recent studies by the American Dental Association (ADA) provides an opportunity to follow up on these previous studies. The 2006 and past ADA surveys on the Distribution of Dentists in the United States, Advanced Dental Education, and Dental Practice were used to evaluate the number of graduates from advanced education programs in endodontics, the changing number and distribution of endodontists, full-time and part-time work patterns, and the income of private practicing endodontists. A gradual increase in the number of graduates from advanced education programs in endodontics is reflected in a continuing increase in the overall number of private practicing endodontists, but with ongoing differences in endodontists-to-population ratios at the regional and state levels. The findings follow previous study results confirming the increasing numbers of endodontists and continuing differences in the endodontists-to-population ratios at both the regional and state levels. Concerns about the distribution of endodontists in the future need to be considered in terms of evolving dental disease patterns, changing demands for services, evolving third-party mechanisms, and the increased number of female practitioners (with fewer reported working hours than their male counterparts).

Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics.

PubMed

Cherry, Seth G; Derocher, Andrew E; Thiemann, Gregory W; Lunn, Nicholas J

2013-07-01

Understanding how seasonal environmental conditions affect the timing and distribution of synchronized animal movement patterns is a central issue in animal ecology. Migration, a behavioural adaptation to seasonal environmental fluctuations, is a fundamental part of the life history of numerous species. However, global climate change can alter the spatiotemporal distribution of resources and thus affect the seasonal movement patterns of migratory animals. We examined sea ice dynamics relative to migration patterns and seasonal geographical fidelity of an Arctic marine predator, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Polar bear movement patterns were quantified using satellite-linked telemetry data collected from collars deployed between 1991-1997 and 2004-2009. We showed that specific sea ice characteristics can predict the timing of seasonal polar bear migration on and off terrestrial refugia. In addition, fidelity to specific onshore regions during the ice-free period was predicted by the spatial pattern of sea ice break-up but not by the timing of break-up. The timing of migration showed a trend towards earlier arrival of polar bears on shore and later departure from land, which has been driven by climate-induced declines in the availability of sea ice. Changes to the timing of migration have resulted in polar bears spending progressively longer periods of time on land without access to sea ice and their marine mammal prey. The links between increased atmospheric temperatures, sea ice dynamics, and the migratory behaviour of an ice-dependent species emphasizes the importance of quantifying and monitoring relationships between migratory wildlife and environmental cues that may be altered by climate change. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Residual flow patterns and morphological changes along a macro- and meso-tidal coastline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Plater, Andrew James

2017-11-01

The hydrodynamic and residual transport patterns arising from oscillating tidal motion have important consequences for the transport of sediments, and for the evolution of the shoreline, especially under macro- and meso-tidal conditions. For many locations there are significant uncertainties about residual currents and sediment transport characteristics, and their possible influence on the morphological evolution of the coastline and on the character of the bed. Herein we use the coastline of SE England as a test case to investigate possible changes in residual currents, and residual transport patterns from neap to spring tide, the reciprocal interaction between residuals and the character of the bed, and the morphological evolution of the coastline at a century timescale. We found that in the long term the morphology of the system evolves toward a dynamic equilibrium configuration characterized by smaller, and spatially constant residual transport patterns. While the spatial distribution of residual currents maintains a similar trend during both neap and spring tide, during spring tide and for large areas residual currents switch between northerly and southerly directions, and their magnitude is doubled. Residual eddies develop in regions characterized by the presence of sand bars due to the interaction of the tide with the varying topography. Residual transport patterns are also computed for various sediment fractions, and based on the hydrodynamics and sediment availability at the bottom. We found that the distribution of sediments on the bed is significantly correlated with the intensity of residuals. Finally, the majority of long-term morphological changes tend to develop or augment sand banks features, with an increase in elevation and steepening of the bank contours.

Mortality gradients within and among dominant plant populations as barometers of ecosystem change during extreme drought.

PubMed

Gitlin, Alicyn R; Sthultz, Christopher M; Bowker, Matthew A; Stumpf, Stacy; Paxton, Kristina L; Kennedy, Karla; Muñoz, Axhel; Bailey, Joseph K; Whitham, Thomas G

2006-10-01

Understanding patterns of plant population mortality during extreme weather events is important to conservation planners because the frequency of such events is expected to increase, creating the need to integrate climatic uncertainty into management. Dominant plants provide habitat and ecosystem structure, so changes in their distribution can be expected to have cascading effects on entire communities. Observing areas that respond quickly to climate fluctuations provides foresight into future ecological changes and will help prioritize conservation efforts. We investigated patterns of mortality in six dominant plant species during a drought in the southwestern United States. We quantified population mortality for each species across its regional distribution and tested hypotheses to identify ecological stress gradients for each species. Our results revealed three major patterns: (1) dominant species from diverse habitat types (i.e., riparian, chaparral, and low- to high-elevation forests) exhibited significant mortality, indicating that the effects of drought were widespread; (2) average mortality differed among dominant species (one-seed juniper[Juniperus monosperma (Engelm.) Sarg.] 3.3%; manzanita[Arctostaphylos pungens Kunth], 14.6%; quaking aspen[Populus tremuloides Michx.], 15.4%; ponderosa pine[Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson], 15.9%; Fremont cottonwood[Populus fremontii S. Wats.], 20.7%; and pinyon pine[Pinus edulis Engelm.], 41.4%); (3) all dominant species showed localized patterns of very high mortality (24-100%) consistent with water stress gradients. Land managers should plan for climatic uncertainty by promoting tree recruitment in rare habitat types, alleviating unnatural levels of competition on dominant plants, and conserving sites across water stress gradients. High-stress sites, such as those we examined, have conservation value as barometers of change and because they may harbor genotypes that are adapted to climatic extremes.

Numerical study of effect of compressor swirling flow on combustor design in a MTE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Yong; Wang, Chengdong; Liu, Cunxi; Liu, Fuqiang; Hu, Chunyan; Xu, Gang; Zhu, Junqiang

2017-08-01

An effect of the swirling flow on the combustion performance is studied by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in a micro-gas turbine with a centrifugal compressor, dump diffuser and forward-flow combustor. The distributions of air mass and the Temperature Pattern Factor (as: Overall Temperature Distribution Factor -OTDF) in outlet are investigated with two different swirling angles of compressed air as 0° and 15° in three combustors. The results show that the influences of swirling flow on the air distribution and OTDF cannot be neglected. Compared with no-swirling flow, the air through outer liner is more, and the air through the inner liner is less, and the pressure loss is bigger under the swirling condition in the same combustor. The Temperature Pattern Factor changes under the different swirling conditions.

Quantifying Shark Distribution Patterns and Species-Habitat Associations: Implications of Marine Park Zoning

PubMed Central

Espinoza, Mario; Cappo, Mike; Heupel, Michelle R.; Tobin, Andrew J.; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.

2014-01-01

Quantifying shark distribution patterns and species-specific habitat associations in response to geographic and environmental drivers is critical to assessing risk of exposure to fishing, habitat degradation, and the effects of climate change. The present study examined shark distribution patterns, species-habitat associations, and marine reserve use with baited remote underwater video stations (BRUVS) along the entire Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) over a ten year period. Overall, 21 species of sharks from five families and two orders were recorded. Grey reef Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, silvertip C. albimarginatus, tiger Galeocerdo cuvier, and sliteye Loxodon macrorhinus sharks were the most abundant species (>64% of shark abundances). Multivariate regression trees showed that hard coral cover produced the primary split separating shark assemblages. Four indicator species had consistently higher abundances and contributed to explaining most of the differences in shark assemblages: C. amblyrhynchos, C. albimarginatus, G. cuvier, and whitetip reef Triaenodon obesus sharks. Relative distance along the GBRMP had the greatest influence on shark occurrence and species richness, which increased at both ends of the sampling range (southern and northern sites) relative to intermediate latitudes. Hard coral cover and distance across the shelf were also important predictors of shark distribution. The relative abundance of sharks was significantly higher in non-fished sites, highlighting the conservation value and benefits of the GBRMP zoning. However, our results also showed that hard coral cover had a large effect on the abundance of reef-associated shark species, indicating that coral reef health may be important for the success of marine protected areas. Therefore, understanding shark distribution patterns, species-habitat associations, and the drivers responsible for those patterns is essential for developing sound management and conservation approaches. PMID:25207545

Quantifying shark distribution patterns and species-habitat associations: implications of marine park zoning.

PubMed

Espinoza, Mario; Cappo, Mike; Heupel, Michelle R; Tobin, Andrew J; Simpfendorfer, Colin A

2014-01-01

Quantifying shark distribution patterns and species-specific habitat associations in response to geographic and environmental drivers is critical to assessing risk of exposure to fishing, habitat degradation, and the effects of climate change. The present study examined shark distribution patterns, species-habitat associations, and marine reserve use with baited remote underwater video stations (BRUVS) along the entire Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) over a ten year period. Overall, 21 species of sharks from five families and two orders were recorded. Grey reef Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, silvertip C. albimarginatus, tiger Galeocerdo cuvier, and sliteye Loxodon macrorhinus sharks were the most abundant species (>64% of shark abundances). Multivariate regression trees showed that hard coral cover produced the primary split separating shark assemblages. Four indicator species had consistently higher abundances and contributed to explaining most of the differences in shark assemblages: C. amblyrhynchos, C. albimarginatus, G. cuvier, and whitetip reef Triaenodon obesus sharks. Relative distance along the GBRMP had the greatest influence on shark occurrence and species richness, which increased at both ends of the sampling range (southern and northern sites) relative to intermediate latitudes. Hard coral cover and distance across the shelf were also important predictors of shark distribution. The relative abundance of sharks was significantly higher in non-fished sites, highlighting the conservation value and benefits of the GBRMP zoning. However, our results also showed that hard coral cover had a large effect on the abundance of reef-associated shark species, indicating that coral reef health may be important for the success of marine protected areas. Therefore, understanding shark distribution patterns, species-habitat associations, and the drivers responsible for those patterns is essential for developing sound management and conservation approaches.

The debt of nations and the distribution of ecological impacts from human activities

PubMed Central

Srinivasan, U. Thara; Carey, Susan P.; Hallstein, Eric; Higgins, Paul A. T.; Kerr, Amber C.; Koteen, Laura E.; Smith, Adam B.; Watson, Reg; Harte, John; Norgaard, Richard B.

2008-01-01

As human impacts to the environment accelerate, disparities in the distribution of damages between rich and poor nations mount. Globally, environmental change is dramatically affecting the flow of ecosystem services, but the distribution of ecological damages and their driving forces has not been estimated. Here, we conservatively estimate the environmental costs of human activities over 1961–2000 in six major categories (climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, agricultural intensification and expansion, deforestation, overfishing, and mangrove conversion), quantitatively connecting costs borne by poor, middle-income, and rich nations to specific activities by each of these groups. Adjusting impact valuations for different standards of living across the groups as commonly practiced, we find striking imbalances. Climate change and ozone depletion impacts predicted for low-income nations have been overwhelmingly driven by emissions from the other two groups, a pattern also observed for overfishing damages indirectly driven by the consumption of fishery products. Indeed, through disproportionate emissions of greenhouse gases alone, the rich group may have imposed climate damages on the poor group greater than the latter's current foreign debt. Our analysis provides prima facie evidence for an uneven distribution pattern of damages across income groups. Moreover, our estimates of each group's share in various damaging activities are independent from controversies in environmental valuation methods. In a world increasingly connected ecologically and economically, our analysis is thus an early step toward reframing issues of environmental responsibility, development, and globalization in accordance with ecological costs. PMID:18212119

Stability and Change in Female and Male Violence across Rural and Urban Counties, 1981-2006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Jennifer; Gertseva, Arina

2010-01-01

Two durable criminological patterns have been higher violence rates in urban compared to rural areas and by males compared to females. To derive and evaluate hypotheses related to correspondence across place and sex groups in changes in violence trends, we draw on a spatial-inequality perspective that attends to the geographic distribution of…

BIOGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS, ABUNDANCES, AND VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF BRACHYURAN AND LITHODID CRABS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE BEAUFORT SEA - 9-19-2014

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an EPA/USGS project to predict the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change we analyzed the biogeographic and abundance patterns of the brachyuran or ‘True’ crabs (n=368) and lithodid or ‘King’ crabs (n=20) that are found...

Modeling climate changes and wildfire interactions: Effects on whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and implications for restoration, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Allissa Corrow; Robert E. Keane

2011-01-01

Climate changes are projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions, or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. High-elevation landscapes have been shown to be...

BIOGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS, ABUNDANCES, AND VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF BRACHYURAN AND LITHODID CRABS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE BEAUFORT SEA

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an EPA/USGS project to predict the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change we analyzed the biogeographic and abundance patterns of the brachyuran or ‘True’ crabs (n=368) and lithodid or ‘King’ crabs (n=20) that are found...

CRABS IN CRISIS:BIOGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS, ABUNDANCES, AND VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF BRACHYURAN AND LITHODID CRABS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE BEAUFORT SEA

EPA Science Inventory

To predict the relative vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change we analyzed the biogeographic and abundance patterns of the brachyuran or ‘True’ crabs (n=368) and lithodid or ‘King’ crabs (n=20) that are found in the twelve MEOW (“Mar...

Variation in genetic structure and gene flow across the range of Sequoiadendron giganteum (giant sequoia)

Treesearch

Rainbow DeSilva; Richard S. Dodd

2017-01-01

During this century, climate warming and altered precipitation patterns will lead to habitat changes that may be beneficial to some long-lived tree species and detrimental to others. Paleoendemics, with limited and disjunct distributions will face the greatest challenges, as migration rates will be too slow to keep pace with rapid environmental change and populations...

Analysis of Changes in the Lorenz Energy Budget of the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, T. D.

2009-12-01

Several recent papers have addressed the topic of changes in global precipitation rates related to changes in Earth's global energy balance. Less studied are the processes that may be governing the large-scale regional distribution of precipitation around the globe. This study uses the energy budget partition paradigm first put forth by Lorenz (1955) and follows the methodology of Arpé et al. (1986) and Oriol (1982) to identify latitude bands where the partition of energy amongst zonal and eddy kinetic and potential energy bins may account for the spatial patterns of precipitation change predicted by many IPCC AR4 models. In doing so, this study may help to identify whether or not the climate change predicted by these models is indeed creating enhanced baroclinic storms in the mid-latitudes or if there are other mechanisms at work producing the patterns of precipitation change.

Do Aphids Alter Leaf Surface Temperature Patterns During Early Infestation?

PubMed Central

Cahon, Thomas; Caillon, Robin

2018-01-01

Arthropods at the surface of plants live in particular microclimatic conditions that can differ from atmospheric conditions. The temperature of plant leaves can deviate from air temperature, and leaf temperature influences the eco-physiology of small insects. The activity of insects feeding on leaf tissues, may, however, induce changes in leaf surface temperatures, but this effect was only rarely demonstrated. Using thermography analysis of leaf surfaces under controlled environmental conditions, we quantified the impact of presence of apple green aphids on the temperature distribution of apple leaves during early infestation. Aphids induced a slight change in leaf surface temperature patterns after only three days of infestation, mostly due to the effect of aphids on the maximal temperature that can be found at the leaf surface. Aphids may induce stomatal closure, leading to a lower transpiration rate. This effect was local since aphids modified the configuration of the temperature distribution over leaf surfaces. Aphids were positioned at temperatures near the maximal leaf surface temperatures, thus potentially experiencing the thermal changes. The feedback effect of feeding activity by insects on their host plant can be important and should be quantified to better predict the response of phytophagous insects to environmental changes. PMID:29538342

Sixty-Five Million Years of Change in Temperature and Topography Explain Evolutionary History in Eastern North American Plethodontid Salamanders.

PubMed

Barnes, Richard; Clark, Adam Thomas

2017-07-01

For many taxa and systems, species richness peaks at midelevations. One potential explanation for this pattern is that large-scale changes in climate and geography have, over evolutionary time, selected for traits that are favored under conditions found in contemporary midelevation regions. To test this hypothesis, we use records of historical temperature and topographic changes over the past 65 Myr to construct a general simulation model of plethodontid salamander evolution in eastern North America. We then explore possible mechanisms constraining species to midelevation bands by using the model to predict plethodontid evolutionary history and contemporary geographic distributions. Our results show that models that incorporate both temperature and topographic changes are better able to predict these patterns, suggesting that both processes may have played an important role in driving plethodontid evolution in the region. Additionally, our model (whose annotated source code is included as a supplement) represents a proof of concept to encourage future work that takes advantage of recent advances in computing power to combine models of ecology, evolution, and earth history to better explain the abundance and distribution of species over time.

Dependence of B1+ and B1- Field Patterns of Surface Coils on the Electrical Properties of the Sample and the MR Operating Frequency.

PubMed

Vaidya, Manushka V; Collins, Christopher M; Sodickson, Daniel K; Brown, Ryan; Wiggins, Graham C; Lattanzi, Riccardo

2016-02-01

In high field MRI, the spatial distribution of the radiofrequency magnetic ( B 1 ) field is usually affected by the presence of the sample. For hardware design and to aid interpretation of experimental results, it is important both to anticipate and to accurately simulate the behavior of these fields. Fields generated by a radiofrequency surface coil were simulated using dyadic Green's functions, or experimentally measured over a range of frequencies inside an object whose electrical properties were varied to illustrate a variety of transmit [Formula: see text] and receive [Formula: see text] field patterns. In this work, we examine how changes in polarization of the field and interference of propagating waves in an object can affect the B 1 spatial distribution. Results are explained conceptually using Maxwell's equations and intuitive illustrations. We demonstrate that the electrical conductivity alters the spatial distribution of distinct polarized components of the field, causing "twisted" transmit and receive field patterns, and asymmetries between [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Additionally, interference patterns due to wavelength effects are observed at high field in samples with high relative permittivity and near-zero conductivity, but are not present in lossy samples due to the attenuation of propagating EM fields. This work provides a conceptual framework for understanding B 1 spatial distributions for surface coils and can provide guidance for RF engineers.

Optimization of Training Sets for Neural-Net Processing of Characteristic Patterns from Vibrating Solids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Arthur J.

2001-01-01

Artificial neural networks have been used for a number of years to process holography-generated characteristic patterns of vibrating structures. This technology depends critically on the selection and the conditioning of the training sets. A scaling operation called folding is discussed for conditioning training sets optimally for training feed-forward neural networks to process characteristic fringe patterns. Folding allows feed-forward nets to be trained easily to detect damage-induced vibration-displacement-distribution changes as small as 10 nm. A specific application to aerospace of neural-net processing of characteristic patterns is presented to motivate the conditioning and optimization effort.

Distinct patterns of seasonal Greenland glacier velocity

PubMed Central

Moon, Twila; Joughin, Ian; Smith, Ben; van den Broeke, Michiel R; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Usher, Mika

2014-01-01

Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss due to ice dynamics requires a complete understanding of spatiotemporal velocity fluctuations and related control mechanisms. We present a 5 year record of seasonal velocity measurements for 55 marine-terminating glaciers distributed around the ice sheet margin, along with ice-front position and runoff data sets for each glacier. Among glaciers with substantial speed variations, we find three distinct seasonal velocity patterns. One pattern indicates relatively high glacier sensitivity to ice-front position. The other two patterns are more prevalent and appear to be meltwater controlled. These patterns reveal differences in which some subglacial systems likely transition seasonally from inefficient, distributed hydrologic networks to efficient, channelized drainage, while others do not. The difference may be determined by meltwater availability, which in some regions may be influenced by perennial firn aquifers. Our results highlight the need to understand subglacial meltwater availability on an ice sheet-wide scale to predict future dynamic changes. Key Points First multi-region seasonal velocity measurements show regional differences Seasonal velocity fluctuations on most glaciers appear meltwater controlled Seasonal development of efficient subglacial drainage geographically divided PMID:25821275

The influence of climate change on the global distribution and fate processes of anthropogenic persistent organic pollutants.

PubMed

Kallenborn, Roland; Halsall, Crispin; Dellong, Maud; Carlsson, Pernilla

2012-11-01

The effect of climate change on the global distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is of growing interest to both scientists and policy makers alike. The impact of warmer temperatures and the resulting changes to earth system processes on chemical fate are, however, unclear, although there are a growing number of studies that are beginning to examine these impacts and changes in a quantitative way. In this review, we examine broad areas where changes are occurring or are likely to occur with regard to the environmental cycling and fate of chemical contaminants. For this purpose we are examining scientific information from long-term monitoring data with particular emphasis on the Arctic, to show apparent changes in chemical patterns and behaviour. In addition, we examine evidence of changing chemical processes for a number of environmental compartments and indirect effects of climate change on contaminant emissions and behaviour. We also recommend areas of research to address knowledge gaps. In general, our findings indicate that the indirect consequences of climate change (i.e. shifts in agriculture, resource exploitation opportunities, etc.) will have a more marked impact on contaminants distribution and fate than direct climate change.

Dispersal in patchy environments: effect on the prevalence of small mammal ectoparasites.

PubMed

Lundqvist, L; Edler, A

1987-01-01

Part-time ectoparasites on small mammals disperse via the habitat, while full-time parasites spread throughout the host population by direct contacts between host animals. It is therefore supposed that the effect of the natural environment is different for the two groups. This was studied as differences between observed and expected prevalence, the percentage of the infested host population, during different environmental conditions. Two possible mechanisms of such an effect were analysed, i.e. a) host selection and its change with host frequency and b) parasite migration and reproduction rates as reflected by the frequency distribution patterns on the hosts. As expected the prevalence of full-time ectoparasites (Anoplura and subfamily Laelapinae) could be predicted on the basis of host species frequencies during different environmental conditions, with the exception of one louse species (Hoplopleura acanthopus), because of its restricted distribution. Prediction was not possible for part-time ectoparasites (subfamily Hameogamasinae). Species of the subfamily Haemogamasinae were more catholic in host selection than species of Anoplura and subfamily Laelapinae. The haemogamasin mites changed host species to a greater extent than did Anoplura and Laelapinae. All haemogamasin mites had short-tailed frequency distribution patterns and all Anoplura and Laelapinae, except Hyperlaelaps microti, had long-tailed frequency distributions.

Spatial and temporal changes in Lutzomyia longipalpis abundance, a Leishmania infantum vector in an urban area in northeastern Argentina

PubMed Central

Fernández, María Soledad; Santini, María Soledad; Cavia, Regino; Sandoval, Adolfo Enrique; Pérez, Adriana Alicia; Acardi, Soraya; Salomón, Oscar Daniel

2013-01-01

This study aimed to analyse changes in the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Posadas, an urban area located in northeastern Argentina. Data were obtained during the summer of 2007 and 2009 through two entomological surveys of peridomiciles distributed around the city. The abundance distribution pattern for 2009 was computed and compared with the previous pattern obtained in 2007, when the first human visceral leishmaniasis cases were reported in the city. Vector abundance was also examined in relation to micro and macrohabitat characteristics. In 2007 and 2009, Lu. longipalpis was distributed among 41.5% and 31% of the households in the study area, respectively. In both years, the abundance rates at most of the trapping sites were below 30 Lu. longipalpis per trap per night; however, for areas exhibiting 30-60 Lu. longipalpis and more than 60 Lu. longipalpis, the areas increased in both size and number from 2007-2009. Lu. longipalpis was more abundant in areas with a higher tree and bush cover (a macrohabitat characteristic) and in peridomiciles with accumulated unused material (a microhabitat characteristic). These results will help to prioritise and focus control efforts by defining which peridomiciles display a potentially high abundance of Lu. longipalpis. PMID:24271040

Short-term thermal stratification and partial overturning events in a warm polymictic reservoir: effects on distribution of phytoplankton community.

PubMed

Santos, R M; Saggio, A A; Silva, T L R; Negreiros, N F; Rocha, O

2015-01-01

In lentic freshwater ecosystems, patterns of thermal stratification play a considerable part in determining the population dynamics of phytoplankton. In this study we investigated how these thermal patterns and the associated hydrodynamic processes affect the vertical distribution of phytoplankton during two consecutive diel cycles in a warm polymictic urban reservoir in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil. Water samples were taken and physical, chemical and biological data collected at half-meter intervals of depth along a water column at a fixed site, every 3 hours throughout the 48-hour period. Two events of stratification, followed by deepening of the thermocline occurred during the study period and led to changes in the vertical distribution of phytoplankton populations. Aphanocapsa delicatissima Nägeli was the single dominant species throughout the 48-hour period. In the second diel cycle, the density gradient induced by temperature differences avoided the sedimentation of Mougeotia sp. C. Agardh to the deepest layers. On the other hand, Pseudanabaena galeata Böcher remained in the 4.0-5.5 m deep layer. The thermal structure of the water was directly affected by two meteorological factors: air temperature and wind speed. Changes in the cell density and vertical distribution of the phytoplankton were controlled by the thermal and hydrodynamic events.

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Dalmaris, Eleftheria; Ramalho, Cristina E; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik J; Byrne, Margaret

2015-11-01

A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM). A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction. Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impacts of changes in land use and fragmentation patterns on Atlantic coastal forests in northern Spain.

PubMed

Teixido, Alberto L; Quintanilla, Luis G; Carreño, Francisco; Gutiérrez, David

2010-01-01

Changes in forested landscapes may have important consequences for ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. In northern Spain, major changes in land use occurred during the second half of the 20th century, but their impacts on forests have not been quantified. We evaluated the dynamics of landscape and forest distribution patterns between 1957 and 2003 in Fragas do Eume Natural Park (northwestern Spain). We used orthoimages and a set of standard landscape metrics to determine transitions between land cover classes and to examine forest distribution patterns. Eucalypt plantations showed the greatest increase in area (197%) over time. Furthermore, transitions to eucalypt plantations were found in all major land cover classes. Forest showed a net decline of 20% in total area and represented 30% of the landscape area in 2003. Forest losses were mainly due to eucalypt plantations and the building of a water reservoir, while forest gains were due to increases in shrubland, meadows and cultivated fields which had been recolonised. Forest patch size and core area decreased, and edge length increased over time. In turn, increases were obtained in mean distance between forest patches, and in adjacency to eucalypt plantations and to a water reservoir. These results suggest an increase in forest fragmentation from 1957 to 2003, as well as a change in the nature of the habitat surrounding forest patches. This study shows that land use changes, mostly from eucalypt plantation intensification, negatively affected forested habitats, although some regeneration was ongoing through ecological succession from land abandonment. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil water content evaluation considering time-invariant spatial pattern and space-variant temporal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, W.; Si, B. C.

2013-10-01

Soil water content (SWC) varies in space and time. The objective of this study was to evaluate soil water content distribution using a statistical model. The model divides spatial SWC series into time-invariant spatial patterns, space-invariant temporal changes, and space- and time-dependent redistribution terms. The redistribution term is responsible for the temporal changes in spatial patterns of SWC. An empirical orthogonal function was used to separate the total variations of redistribution terms into the sum of the product of spatial structures (EOFs) and temporally-varying coefficients (ECs). Model performance was evaluated using SWC data of near-surface (0-0.2 m) and root-zone (0-1.0 m) from a Canadian Prairie landscape. Three significant EOFs were identified for redistribution term for both soil layers. EOF1 dominated the variations of redistribution terms and it resulted in more changes (recharge or discharge) in SWC at wetter locations. Depth to CaCO3 layer and organic carbon were the two most important controlling factors of EOF1, and together, they explained over 80% of the variations in EOF1. Weak correlation existed between either EOF2 or EOF3 and the observed factors. A reasonable prediction of SWC distribution was obtained with this model using cross validation. The model performed better in the root zone than in the near surface, and it outperformed conventional EOF method in case soil moisture deviated from the average conditions.

The structure of biodiversity – insights from molecular phylogeography

PubMed Central

Hewitt, Godfrey M

2004-01-01

DNA techniques, analytical methods and palaeoclimatic studies are greatly advancing our knowledge of the global distribution of genetic diversity, and how it evolved. Such phylogeographic studies are reviewed from Arctic, Temperate and Tropical regions, seeking commonalities of cause in the resulting genetic patterns. The genetic diversity is differently patterned within and among regions and biomes, and is related to their histories of climatic changes. This has major implications for conservation science. PMID:15679920

FISHER'S GEOMETRIC MODEL WITH A MOVING OPTIMUM

PubMed Central

Matuszewski, Sebastian; Hermisson, Joachim; Kopp, Michael

2014-01-01

Fisher's geometric model has been widely used to study the effects of pleiotropy and organismic complexity on phenotypic adaptation. Here, we study a version of Fisher's model in which a population adapts to a gradually moving optimum. Key parameters are the rate of environmental change, the dimensionality of phenotype space, and the patterns of mutational and selectional correlations. We focus on the distribution of adaptive substitutions, that is, the multivariate distribution of the phenotypic effects of fixed beneficial mutations. Our main results are based on an “adaptive-walk approximation,” which is checked against individual-based simulations. We find that (1) the distribution of adaptive substitutions is strongly affected by the ecological dynamics and largely depends on a single composite parameter γ, which scales the rate of environmental change by the “adaptive potential” of the population; (2) the distribution of adaptive substitution reflects the shape of the fitness landscape if the environment changes slowly, whereas it mirrors the distribution of new mutations if the environment changes fast; (3) in contrast to classical models of adaptation assuming a constant optimum, with a moving optimum, more complex organisms evolve via larger adaptive steps. PMID:24898080

Patterns and variability of projected bioclimatic habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

PubMed

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

Patterns and Variability of Projected Bioclimatic Habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J.; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980–2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2–29% and 0.04–10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010–2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910–2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios. PMID:25372719

Ecosystem relevance of variable jellyfish biomass in the Irish Sea between years, regions and water types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastian, Thomas; Lilley, Martin K. S.; Beggs, Steven E.; Hays, Graeme C.; Doyle, Thomas K.

2014-08-01

Monitoring the abundance and distribution of taxa is essential to assess their contribution to ecosystem processes. For marine taxa that are difficult to study or have long been perceived of little ecological importance, quantitative information is often lacking. This is the case for jellyfish (medusae and other gelatinous plankton). In the present work, 4 years of scyphomedusae by-catch data from the 2007-2010 Irish Sea juvenile gadoid fish survey were analysed with three main objectives: (1) to provide quantitative and spatially-explicit species-specific biomass data, for a region known to have an increasing trend in jellyfish abundance; (2) to investigate whether year-to-year changes in catch-biomass are due to changes in the numbers or in the size of medusa (assessed as the mean mass per individual), and (3) to determine whether inter-annual variation patterns are consistent between species and water masses. Scyphomedusae were present in 97% of samples (N = 306). Their overall annual median catch-biomass ranged from 0.19 to 0.92 g m-3 (or 8.6 to 42.4 g m-2). Aurelia aurita and Cyanea spp. (Cyanea lamarckii and Cyanea capillata) made up 77.7% and 21.5% of the total catch-biomass respectively, but species contributions varied greatly between sub-regions and years. No consistent pattern was detected between the distribution and inter-annual variations of the two genera, and contrasting inter-annual patterns emerged when considering abundance either as biomass or as density. Significantly, A. aurita medusae were heavier in stratified than in mixed waters, which we hypothesize may be linked to differences in timing and yield of primary and secondary productions between water masses. These results show the vulnerability of time-series from bycatch datasets to phenological changes and highlight the importance of taking species- and population-specific distribution patterns into account when integrating jellyfish into ecosystem models.

JPL Electronic Nose: From Sniffing Brain Cancer to Trouble in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Homer, Margie L.

2011-01-01

What Is An Electronic Nose? An array of non-specific chemical sensors, controlled and analyzed electronically, which mimics the action of the mammalian nose by recognizing patterns of response. An Enose: (1.) ENose measures background resistance in each sensor and establishes a baseline. (2.) Contaminant comes in contact with sensors on the sensing head. (3.) The sensing films, change physical properties, such as thickness or color, as air composition changes. (4.) Sensor response is recorded by a computer, the change in resistance is computed, and the distributed response pattern of the sensor array is used to identify gases and mixtures of gases. (5. Responses of the sensor array are analyzed and quantified using software developed for the task.

The temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for an optimum.

PubMed

Chevin, Luis-Miguel; Haller, Benjamin C

2014-12-01

Temporal variation in phenotypic selection is often attributed to environmental change causing movements of the adaptive surface relating traits to fitness, but this connection is rarely established empirically. Fluctuating phenotypic selection can be measured by the variance and autocorrelation of directional selection gradients through time. However, the dynamics of these gradients depend not only on environmental changes altering the fitness surface, but also on evolution of the phenotypic distribution. Therefore, it is unclear to what extent variability in selection gradients can inform us about the underlying drivers of their fluctuations. To investigate this question, we derive the temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for a phenotypic optimum that is either constant or fluctuates randomly in various ways in a finite population. Our analytical results, combined with population- and individual-based simulations, show that although some characteristic patterns can be distinguished, very different types of change in the optimum (including a constant optimum) can generate similar temporal distributions of selection gradients, making it difficult to infer the processes underlying apparent fluctuating selection. Analyzing changes in phenotype distributions together with changes in selection gradients should prove more useful for inferring the mechanisms underlying estimated fluctuating selection. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Assessment of projected climate change in the Carpathian Region using the Holdridge life zone system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szelepcsényi, Zoltán; Breuer, Hajnalka; Kis, Anna; Pongrácz, Rita; Sümegi, Pál

2018-01-01

In this paper, expected changes in the spatial and altitudinal distribution patterns of Holdridge life zone (HLZ) types are analysed to assess the possible ecological impacts of future climate change for the Carpathian Region, by using 11 bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation. The distribution patterns of HLZ types are characterized by the relative extent, the mean centre and the altitudinal range. According to the applied projections, the following conclusions can be drawn: (a) the altitudinal ranges are likely to expand in the future, (b) the lower and upper altitudinal limits as well as the altitudinal midpoints may move to higher altitudes, (c) a northward shift is expected for most HLZ types and (d) the magnitudes of these shifts can even be multiples of those observed in the last century. Related to the northward shifts, the HLZ types warm temperate thorn steppe and subtropical dry forest can also appear in the southern segment of the target area. However, a large uncertainty in the estimated changes of precipitation patterns was indicated by the following: (a) the expected change in the coverage of the HLZ type cool temperate steppe is extremely uncertain because there is no consensus among the projections even in terms of the sign of the change (high inter-model variability) and (b) a significant trend in the westward/eastward shift is simulated just for some HLZ types (high temporal variability). Finally, it is important to emphasize that the uncertainty of our results is further enhanced by the fact that some important aspects (e.g. seasonality of climate variables, direct CO2 effect, etc.) cannot be considered in the estimating process.

Analysis of Land-Use Effects on Landscape Patterns and Biological Diversity in Pacific North Forests: 1972-1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallin, David O.; Cohen, Warren B.; Bradshaw, G. A.; Spies, T. A.; Hansen, A.; Huff, M. H.; Lehmkuhl, J. F.; Raphael, M. G.; Ripple, W. J.

1998-01-01

While there is widespread recognition of the importance of preserving biological diversity there is considerable uncertainty about how to map current patterns of diversity and monitor changes through time. Ground-based approaches are impractical for examining regional patterns of biological diversity, for monitoring change, and they may actually overlook important higher-order phenomena. Thus, there is a critical need for innovative techniques to examine land-use effects on biological diversity at the landscape and regional scales. In this project, we have used satellite-based remote sensing to examine land-use effects on forest ecosystems in the Pacific NorthWest region (PNW) of the U.S.A. Rates and patterns of forest change throughout the region were quantified for the period from 1972 to 1993. This information was then used to map changes in the abundance and distribution of potential habitat for selected vertebrate species. The results of this project will be useful for identifying "keystone" stands that are important in maintaining habitat connectivity at the regional scale and for evaluating the impact of future land-use on vertebrate diversity throughout the region. The approaches developed here will also be useful in other forested regions throughout the world.

Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Ogden, Nicholas H; Semenza, Jan C; Woodward, Alistair

2017-08-07

Detection and attribution of health impacts caused by climate change uses formal methods to determine a ) whether the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has changed, and b ) the extent to which that change could be attributed to climate change. There have been limited efforts to undertake detection and attribution analyses in health. Our goal was to show a range of approaches for conducting detection and attribution analyses. Case studies for heatwaves, Lyme disease in Canada, and Vibrio emergence in northern Europe highlight evidence that climate change is adversely affecting human health. Changes in rates and geographic distribution of adverse health outcomes were detected, and, in each instance, a proportion of the observed changes could, in our judgment, be attributed to changes in weather patterns associated with climate change. The results of detection and attribution studies can inform evidence-based risk management to reduce current, and plan for future, changes in health risks associated with climate change. Gaining a better understanding of the size, timing, and distribution of the climate change burden of disease and injury requires reliable long-term data sets, more knowledge about the factors that confound and modify the effects of climate on health, and refinement of analytic techniques for detection and attribution. At the same time, significant advances are possible in the absence of complete data and statistical certainty: there is a place for well-informed judgments, based on understanding of underlying processes and matching of patterns of health, climate, and other determinants of human well-being. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1509.

Two-dimensional distribution of microbial activity and flow patterns within naturally fractured chalk.

PubMed

Arnon, Shai; Ronen, Zeev; Adar, Eilon; Yakirevich, Alexander; Nativ, Ronit

2005-10-01

The two-dimensional distribution of flow patterns and their dynamic change due to microbial activity were investigated in naturally fractured chalk cores. Long-term biodegradation experiments were conducted in two cores ( approximately 20 cm diameter, 31 and 44 cm long), intersected by a natural fracture. 2,4,6-tribromophenol (TBP) was used as a model contaminant and as the sole carbon source for aerobic microbial activity. The transmissivity of the fractures was continuously reduced due to biomass accumulation in the fracture concurrent with TBP biodegradation. From multi-tracer experiments conducted prior to and following the microbial activity, it was found that biomass accumulation causes redistribution of the preferential flow channels. Zones of slow flow near the fracture inlet were clogged, thus further diverting the flow through zones of fast flow, which were also partially clogged. Quantitative evaluation of biodegradation and bacterial counts supported the results of the multi-tracer tests, indicating that most of the bacterial activity occurs close to the inlet. The changing flow patterns, which control the nutrient supply, resulted in variations in the concentrations of the chemical constituents (TBP, bromide and oxygen), used as indicators of biodegradation.

Time variations in the Earth's gravity field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, C. K.; Eanes, R. J.

1992-01-01

At the present time, the causes and consequences of changes in the Earth's gravity field due to geophysical and meteorological phenomena are not well understood. The Earth's gravity field represents the complicated distribution of all of the matter that makes up our planet. Its variations are caused by the motions of the solid Earth interacting with the gravitational attraction of the Sun and the Moon (tides) and with the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, polar ice caps and groundwater due to changing weather patterns. These variations influence the rotation of the Earth, alter the orbits of Earth satellites, cause sea level fluctuations, and indirectly affect the global climate pattern.

Understanding human dynamics in microblog posting activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhihong; Zhang, Yubao; Wang, Hui; Li, Pei

2013-02-01

Human activity patterns are an important issue in behavior dynamics research. Empirical evidence indicates that human activity patterns can be characterized by a heavy-tailed inter-event time distribution. However, most researchers give an understanding by only modeling the power-law feature of the inter-event time distribution, and those overlooked non-power-law features are likely to be nontrivial. In this work, we propose a behavior dynamics model, called the finite memory model, in which humans adaptively change their activity rates based on a finite memory of recent activities, which is driven by inherent individual interest. Theoretical analysis shows a finite memory model can properly explain various heavy-tailed inter-event time distributions, including a regular power law and some non-power-law deviations. To validate the model, we carry out an empirical study based on microblogging activity from thousands of microbloggers in the Celebrity Hall of the Sina microblog. The results show further that the model is reasonably effective. We conclude that finite memory is an effective dynamics element to describe the heavy-tailed human activity pattern.

Interaction of HSP20 with a viral RdRp changes its sub-cellular localization and distribution pattern in plants.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Xiang, Cong-Ying; Yang, Jian; Chen, Jian-Ping; Zhang, Heng-Mu

2015-09-11

Small heat shock proteins (sHSPs) perform a fundamental role in protecting cells against a wide array of stresses but their biological function during viral infection remains unknown. Rice stripe virus (RSV) causes a severe disease of rice in Eastern Asia. OsHSP20 and its homologue (NbHSP20) were used as baits in yeast two-hybrid (YTH) assays to screen an RSV cDNA library and were found to interact with the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) of RSV. Interactions were confirmed by pull-down and BiFC assays. Further analysis showed that the N-terminus (residues 1-296) of the RdRp was crucial for the interaction between the HSP20s and viral RdRp and responsible for the alteration of the sub-cellular localization and distribution pattern of HSP20s in protoplasts of rice and epidermal cells of Nicotiana benthamiana. This is the first report that a plant virus or a viral protein alters the expression pattern or sub-cellular distribution of sHSPs.

Patterns of ecology and distribution of the tree crickets Oecanthus dulcisonans and O. pellucens (Orthoptera: Gryllidae; Oecanthinae) in southern Italy.

PubMed

Labadessa, Rocco; Todisco, Simone

2016-09-21

Ecological proclivities of the tree cricket Oecanthus dulcisonans, which has been recently separated from the well known O. pellucens, have been poorly investigated. Moreover, studies on the patterns driving niche segregation between these related species are still needed. This study aims to explore the role of macro-habitat in shaping the distribution of O. dulcisonans and O. pellucens in southern Italy. Occurrence data were sampled by means of a rapid acoustic survey scheme at a regional scale. The significance of difference in ecological and habitat parameters was tested between the two species. While confirming species behavioural patterns, new findings are provided with regard to their ecological difference. Species distribution proves to be primarily driven by elevation gradient and temperature variation, with O. dulcisonans common and widespread in warmer lowlands and O. pellucens limited to higher altitudes. The two species also show significant spatial segregation within vegetation layers. These findings also provide cues for future studies on species interaction, as well as for the assessment of a monitoring scheme which may help interpreting the effects of broad environmental changes.

A Theory of Age-Dependent Mutation and Senescence

PubMed Central

Moorad, Jacob A.; Promislow, Daniel E. L.

2008-01-01

Laboratory experiments show us that the deleterious character of accumulated novel age-specific mutations is reduced and made less variable with increased age. While theories of aging predict that the frequency of deleterious mutations at mutation–selection equilibrium will increase with the mutation's age of effect, they do not account for these age-related changes in the distribution of de novo mutational effects. Furthermore, no model predicts why this dependence of mutational effects upon age exists. Because the nature of mutational distributions plays a critical role in shaping patterns of senescence, we need to develop aging theory that explains and incorporates these effects. Here we propose a model that explains the age dependency of mutational effects by extending Fisher's geometrical model of adaptation to include a temporal dimension. Using a combination of simple analytical arguments and simulations, we show that our model predicts age-specific mutational distributions that are consistent with observations from mutation-accumulation experiments. Simulations show us that these age-specific mutational effects may generate patterns of senescence at mutation–selection equilibrium that are consistent with observed demographic patterns that are otherwise difficult to explain. PMID:18660535

Heterogeneous distributional responses to climate warming: evidence from rodents along a subtropical elevational gradient.

PubMed

Wen, Zhixin; Wu, Yi; Ge, Deyan; Cheng, Jilong; Chang, Yongbin; Yang, Zhisong; Xia, Lin; Yang, Qisen

2017-04-20

Understanding whether species' elevational range is shifting in response to directional changes in climate and whether there is a predictable pattern in that response is one of the major challenges in ecology. However, so far very little is known about the distributional responses of subtropical species to climate change, especially for small mammals. In this study, we examined the elevational range shifts at three range points (upper and lower range limits and abundance-weighted range centre) of rodents over a 30-year period (1986 to 2014-2015), in a subtropical forest of Southwest China. We also examined the influences of four ecological traits (body mass, habitat breadth, diet and daily activity pattern) on the upslope shifts in species' abundance-weighted range centres. Despite the warming trend between 1986 and 2015, the 11 rodent species in analysis displayed heterogeneous dynamics at each of the three range points. Species which have larger body sizes and narrower habitat breadths, show both diurnal and nocturnal activities and more specialized dietary requirements, are more likely to exhibit upslope shifts in abundance-weighted range centres. Species' distributional responses can be heterogeneous even though there are directional changes in climate. Our study indicates that climate-induced alleviation of competition and lag in response may potentially drive species' range shift, which may not conform to the expectation from climate change. Difference in traits can lead to different range dynamics. Our study also illustrates the merit of multi-faceted assessment in studying elevational range shifts.

On the mechanism of pattern formation in glow dielectric barrier discharge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qiao, Yajun; Li, Ben; Ouyang, Jiting, E-mail: jtouyang@bit.edu.cn

2016-01-15

The formation mechanism of pattern in glow dielectric barrier discharge is investigated by two-dimensional fluid modeling. Experimental results are shown for comparison. The simulation results show that the non-uniform distribution of space charges makes the discharge be enhanced in the high-density region but weakened in its neighborhood, which is considered as an activation-inhibition effect. This effect shows through during a current pulse (one discharge event) but also in a certain period of time after discharge that determines a driving frequency range for the non-uniformity of space charges to be enhanced. The effects of applied voltage, surface charge, electrode boundary, andmore » external field are also discussed. All these factors affect the formation of dielectric-barrier-discharge pattern by changing the distribution or the dynamics of space charges and hence the activation-inhibition effect of non-uniform space charges.« less

Cell segmentation in time-lapse fluorescence microscopy with temporally varying sub-cellular fusion protein patterns.

PubMed

Bunyak, Filiz; Palaniappan, Kannappan; Chagin, Vadim; Cardoso, M

2009-01-01

Fluorescently tagged proteins such as GFP-PCNA produce rich dynamically varying textural patterns of foci distributed in the nucleus. This enables the behavioral study of sub-cellular structures during different phases of the cell cycle. The varying punctuate patterns of fluorescence, drastic changes in SNR, shape and position during mitosis and abundance of touching cells, however, require more sophisticated algorithms for reliable automatic cell segmentation and lineage analysis. Since the cell nuclei are non-uniform in appearance, a distribution-based modeling of foreground classes is essential. The recently proposed graph partitioning active contours (GPAC) algorithm supports region descriptors and flexible distance metrics. We extend GPAC for fluorescence-based cell segmentation using regional density functions and dramatically improve its efficiency for segmentation from O(N(4)) to O(N(2)), for an image with N(2) pixels, making it practical and scalable for high throughput microscopy imaging studies.

A deployment of fine-grained sensor network and empirical analysis of urban temperature.

PubMed

Thepvilojanapong, Niwat; Ono, Takahiro; Tobe, Yoshito

2010-01-01

Temperature in an urban area exhibits a complicated pattern due to complexity of infrastructure. Despite geographical proximity, structures of a group of buildings and streets affect changes in temperature. To investigate the pattern of fine-grained distribution of temperature, we installed a densely distributed sensor network called UScan. In this paper, we describe the system architecture of UScan as well as experience learned from installing 200 sensors in downtown Tokyo. The field experiment of UScan system operated for two months to collect long-term urban temperature data. To analyze the collected data in an efficient manner, we propose a lightweight clustering methodology to study the correlation between the pattern of temperature and various environmental factors including the amount of sunshine, the width of streets, and the existence of trees. The analysis reveals meaningful results and asserts the necessity of fine-grained deployment of sensors in an urban area.

Inner membrane fusion mediates spatial distribution of axonal mitochondria

PubMed Central

Yu, Yiyi; Lee, Hao-Chih; Chen, Kuan-Chieh; Suhan, Joseph; Qiu, Minhua; Ba, Qinle; Yang, Ge

2016-01-01

In eukaryotic cells, mitochondria form a dynamic interconnected network to respond to changing needs at different subcellular locations. A fundamental yet unanswered question regarding this network is whether, and if so how, local fusion and fission of individual mitochondria affect their global distribution. To address this question, we developed high-resolution computational image analysis techniques to examine the relations between mitochondrial fusion/fission and spatial distribution within the axon of Drosophila larval neurons. We found that stationary and moving mitochondria underwent fusion and fission regularly but followed different spatial distribution patterns and exhibited different morphology. Disruption of inner membrane fusion by knockdown of dOpa1, Drosophila Optic Atrophy 1, not only increased the spatial density of stationary and moving mitochondria but also changed their spatial distributions and morphology differentially. Knockdown of dOpa1 also impaired axonal transport of mitochondria. But the changed spatial distributions of mitochondria resulted primarily from disruption of inner membrane fusion because knockdown of Milton, a mitochondrial kinesin-1 adapter, caused similar transport velocity impairment but different spatial distributions. Together, our data reveals that stationary mitochondria within the axon interconnect with moving mitochondria through fusion and fission and that local inner membrane fusion between individual mitochondria mediates their global distribution. PMID:26742817

Mineralisation and mechanical strength of the glenoid cavity subchondral bone plate.

PubMed

Kraljević, Marko; Zumstein, Valentin; Wirz, Dieter; Hügli, Rolf; Müller-Gerbl, Magdalena

2011-12-01

Failures in total shoulder replacements are often due to aseptic loosening of the glenoid component; the subchondral bone plate is an important factor governing primary fixation of implant materials. Therefore, we investigated characteristic mineralisation patterns of the subchondral bone plate, which demonstrate long-term stress on articular surfaces, age-related changes, postsurgical biomechanical situations and regions of fixation. Using computed tomography osteo-absorptiometry (CT-OAM), these distribution patterns can be demonstrated in vivo. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between subchondral bone-plate mineralisation measured with CT-OAM and the mechanical strength measured by indentation. A total of 32 cadaverous glenoid cavities were evaluated by CT-OAM and indentation testing. Linear regression was used to compare mineralisation and strength of the subchondral bone plate. Results showed two patterns of mineralisation distribution. Twenty-eight cavities were related to bicentric distribution pattern and four showed a single maximum. The correlation coefficient between CT-OAM density and subchondral bone-plate strength was determined to be between 0.62 and 0.96 (P < 0.02). Long-term stress affects not only the subchondral but also the underlying cancellous bone. It therefore can be assumed that mineralisation patterns of the subchondral bone plate continue in cancellous bone. Areas of high density could serve as anchoring locations for orthopaedic implants in resurfacing the glenoid cavity.

The formation and distribution of hippocampal synapses on patterned neuronal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowell-Mesfin, Natalie M.

Communication within the central nervous system is highly orchestrated with neurons forming trillions of specialized junctions called synapses. In vivo, biochemical and topographical cues can regulate neuronal growth. Biochemical cues also influence synaptogenesis and synaptic plasticity. The effects of topography on the development of synapses have been less studied. In vitro, neuronal growth is unorganized and complex making it difficult to study the development of networks. Patterned topographical cues guide and control the growth of neuronal processes (axons and dendrites) into organized networks. The aim of this dissertation was to determine if patterned topographical cues can influence synapse formation and distribution. Standard fabrication and compression molding procedures were used to produce silicon masters and polystyrene replicas with topographical cues presented as 1 mum high pillars with diameters of 0.5 and 2.0 mum and gaps of 1.0 to 5.0 mum. Embryonic rat hippocampal neurons grown unto patterned surfaces. A developmental analysis with immunocytochemistry was used to assess the distribution of pre- and post-synaptic proteins. Activity-dependent pre-synaptic vesicle uptake using functional imaging dyes was also performed. Adaptive filtering computer algorithms identified synapses by segmenting juxtaposed pairs of pre- and post-synaptic labels. Synapse number and area were automatically extracted from each deconvolved data set. In addition, neuronal processes were traced automatically to assess changes in synapse distribution. The results of these experiments demonstrated that patterned topographic cues can induce organized and functional neuronal networks that can serve as models for the study of synapse formation and plasticity as well as for the development of neuroprosthetic devices.

Assessment of Climate Change and Vector-borne Diseases in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaghan, A. J.; Beard, C. B.; Eisen, R. J.; Barker, C. M.; Garofalo, J.; Hahn, M.; Hayden, M.; Ogden, N.; Schramm, P.

2016-12-01

Vector-borne diseases are illnesses that are transmitted by vectors, which include mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas. The seasonality, distribution, and prevalence of vector-borne diseases are influenced significantly by climate factors, primarily high and low temperature extremes and precipitation patterns. In this presentation we summarize key findings from Chapter 5 ("Vector-borne Diseases") of the recently published USGCRP Scientific Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States. Climate change is expected to alter geographic and seasonal distributions of vectors and vector-borne diseases, leading to earlier activity and northward range expansion of ticks capable of carrying the bacteria that cause Lyme disease and other pathogens, and influencing the distribution, abundance and prevalence of infection in mosquitoes that transmit West Nile virus and other pathogens. The emergence or reemergence of vector-borne pathogens is also likely.

Incorporating Context Dependency of Species Interactions in Species Distribution Models.

PubMed

Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Gouhier, Tarik C; Menge, Bruce A

2017-07-01

Species distribution models typically use correlative approaches that characterize the species-environment relationship using occurrence or abundance data for a single species. However, species distributions are determined by both abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Therefore, climate change is expected to impact species through direct effects on their physiology and indirect effects propagated through their resources, predators, competitors, or mutualists. Furthermore, the sign and strength of species interactions can change according to abiotic conditions, resulting in context-dependent species interactions that may change across space or with climate change. Here, we incorporated the context dependency of species interactions into a dynamic species distribution model. We developed a multi-species model that uses a time-series of observational survey data to evaluate how abiotic conditions and species interactions affect the dynamics of three rocky intertidal species. The model further distinguishes between the direct effects of abiotic conditions on abundance and the indirect effects propagated through interactions with other species. We apply the model to keystone predation by the sea star Pisaster ochraceus on the mussel Mytilus californianus and the barnacle Balanus glandula in the rocky intertidal zone of the Pacific coast, USA. Our method indicated that biotic interactions between P. ochraceus and B. glandula affected B. glandula dynamics across >1000 km of coastline. Consistent with patterns from keystone predation, the growth rate of B. glandula varied according to the abundance of P. ochraceus in the previous year. The data and the model did not indicate that the strength of keystone predation by P. ochraceus varied with a mean annual upwelling index. Balanus glandula cover increased following years with high phytoplankton abundance measured as mean annual chlorophyll-a. M. californianus exhibited the same pattern to a lesser degree, although this pattern was not significant. This work bridges the disciplines of biogeography and community ecology to develop tools to better understand the direct and indirect effects of abiotic conditions on ecological communities. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander

2016-04-01

Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series of transdisciplinary participatory modelling workshops, and a questionnaire-based survey targeted at regional farmers. Beside the integrated socioecological model a catalogue of recommended actions will be developed in order to distribute the insights of the research to the most relevant regional stakeholder groups.

Challenges and approaches to projecting changes in forest distributions in complex mountain landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kueppers, L. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Meromy, L.; Moyes, A. B.; Conlisk, E.; Castanha, C.

2015-12-01

The extent and density of forest trees in mountain landscapes is a first order control on watershed function, affecting patterns of snow accumulation, timing of snowmelt, and amount and quality of run-off, through alterations of surface energy and water fluxes and wind. Climate change is increasingly affecting the density and distribution of mature forests through changes to disturbance regimes, increases in physiological stress and increases in mortality due to warmer temperatures. In addition, climate change is likely altering patterns of regeneration and driving establishment of trees in high elevation meadows and alpine tundra. Though hard to detect in current forestry datasets, changes in tree establishment are critical to the future of forests. Experimental approaches, such as our climate warming experiment in the Colorado Front Range, can provide valuable data regarding seedling sensitivity to climate variability and change across important landscape positions. We've found that warming enhances negative effects of water stress across forest, treeline and alpine sites, reducing recruitment in the absence of additional summer moisture. At the lowest elevation, reductions with warming have reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment to zero. Species differ in their responses to warming in the alpine, but together confirm the importance of seed dispersal to upward forest shifts. The presence of trees or other vegetation can facilitate tree establishment by modifying microclimates, especially at and above treeline. Ultimately, these ecological and demographic processes govern the timescales of tree and forest responses to climate variability and change. For the long-lived species that dominate high elevation watersheds, these processes can take decades or centuries to play out, meaning many tree populations are and will continue to be out of equilibrium with a rapidly changing climate. Projecting changes in tree distributions and abundances across mountain landscapes requires integration of changes in hydroclimatic conditions across diverse topoclimatic settings; the sensitivity of recruitment, growth and mortality to climate; and feedbacks between trees and microclimate into modeling tools that represent time-explicit ecological and demographic processes.

The relationship of meteorological patterns with changes in floristic richness along a large elevational gradient in a seasonally dry region of southern Mexico.

PubMed

Salas-Morales, Silvia H; Meave, Jorge A; Trejo, Irma

2015-12-01

Globally, climate is a fundamental driver of plant species' geographical distributions, yet we still lack a good understanding of climatic variation on tropical mountains and its consequences for elevational floristic patterns. In a seasonally dry region of southern Mexico, we analysed meteorological patterns along a large elevational gradient (0-3670 m a.s.l.) and examined their relationship with changes in floristic richness. Meteorological patterns were characterised using two data sources. First, climatic information was extracted from cartography and records from a few existing meteorological stations. Additionally, air temperature and humidity were recorded hourly during 1 year with data loggers, at sites representing 200-m elevation increments. Floristic information was extracted from a database containing 10,124 records of plant collections, and organized in 200-m elevational belts. Climatic charts distinguished three climate types along the gradient, all with marked rainfall seasonality, but these bore little correspondence with the information obtained with the data loggers. Mean annual air temperature decreased with increasing elevation (lapse rate of 0.542 °C 100 m(-1)). Thermal oscillation was minimum around 1400 m and increased towards both extremes of the gradient. Relative humidity opposed this pattern, with maxima between 800 and 1800 m, decreasing towards the highest elevations. An analysis of temperature frequency distributions revealed meteorological features undetectable from the annual or monthly means of this variable; despite an overall gradual transition of the proportions of time recorded at different temperatures, some changes did not conform to this pattern. The first discontinuity occurred between 1000-1200 m, where dominant temperatures shifted abruptly; also noticeable was an abrupt increase of the proportion of time elapsed at 0.1-10 °C between 2400 and 2600 m. Air temperature appears to be the most influential climatic factor driving elevational variation of plant species richness in this region.

Relative Roles of Deterministic and Stochastic Processes in Driving the Vertical Distribution of Bacterial Communities in a Permafrost Core from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.

PubMed

Hu, Weigang; Zhang, Qi; Tian, Tian; Li, Dingyao; Cheng, Gang; Mu, Jing; Wu, Qingbai; Niu, Fujun; Stegen, James C; An, Lizhe; Feng, Huyuan

2015-01-01

Understanding the processes that influence the structure of biotic communities is one of the major ecological topics, and both stochastic and deterministic processes are expected to be at work simultaneously in most communities. Here, we investigated the vertical distribution patterns of bacterial communities in a 10-m-long soil core taken within permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. To get a better understanding of the forces that govern these patterns, we examined the diversity and structure of bacterial communities, and the change in community composition along the vertical distance (spatial turnover) from both taxonomic and phylogenetic perspectives. Measures of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity revealed that bacterial community composition changed continuously along the soil core, and showed a vertical distance-decay relationship. Multiple stepwise regression analysis suggested that bacterial alpha diversity and phylogenetic structure were strongly correlated with soil conductivity and pH but weakly correlated with depth. There was evidence that deterministic and stochastic processes collectively drived bacterial vertically-structured pattern. Bacterial communities in five soil horizons (two originated from the active layer and three from permafrost) of the permafrost core were phylogenetically random, indicator of stochastic processes. However, we found a stronger effect of deterministic processes related to soil pH, conductivity, and organic carbon content that were structuring the bacterial communities. We therefore conclude that the vertical distribution of bacterial communities was governed primarily by deterministic ecological selection, although stochastic processes were also at work. Furthermore, the strong impact of environmental conditions (for example, soil physicochemical parameters and seasonal freeze-thaw cycles) on these communities underlines the sensitivity of permafrost microorganisms to climate change and potentially subsequent permafrost thaw.

Relative Roles of Deterministic and Stochastic Processes in Driving the Vertical Distribution of Bacterial Communities in a Permafrost Core from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Tian, Tian; Li, Dingyao; Cheng, Gang; Mu, Jing; Wu, Qingbai; Niu, Fujun; Stegen, James C.; An, Lizhe; Feng, Huyuan

2015-01-01

Understanding the processes that influence the structure of biotic communities is one of the major ecological topics, and both stochastic and deterministic processes are expected to be at work simultaneously in most communities. Here, we investigated the vertical distribution patterns of bacterial communities in a 10-m-long soil core taken within permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. To get a better understanding of the forces that govern these patterns, we examined the diversity and structure of bacterial communities, and the change in community composition along the vertical distance (spatial turnover) from both taxonomic and phylogenetic perspectives. Measures of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity revealed that bacterial community composition changed continuously along the soil core, and showed a vertical distance-decay relationship. Multiple stepwise regression analysis suggested that bacterial alpha diversity and phylogenetic structure were strongly correlated with soil conductivity and pH but weakly correlated with depth. There was evidence that deterministic and stochastic processes collectively drived bacterial vertically-structured pattern. Bacterial communities in five soil horizons (two originated from the active layer and three from permafrost) of the permafrost core were phylogenetically random, indicator of stochastic processes. However, we found a stronger effect of deterministic processes related to soil pH, conductivity, and organic carbon content that were structuring the bacterial communities. We therefore conclude that the vertical distribution of bacterial communities was governed primarily by deterministic ecological selection, although stochastic processes were also at work. Furthermore, the strong impact of environmental conditions (for example, soil physicochemical parameters and seasonal freeze-thaw cycles) on these communities underlines the sensitivity of permafrost microorganisms to climate change and potentially subsequent permafrost thaw. PMID:26699734

Effect of body mass distribution on the ontogeny of positional behaviors in non-human primates: Longitudinal follow-up of infant captive olive baboons (Papio anubis).

PubMed

Druelle, François; Aerts, Peter; Berillon, Gilles

2016-11-01

The diversity of primates' positional capabilities is unique among mammals. Indeed, they exhibit a daily repertoire composed of various locomotor and postural modes that may be linked to their particular morphological pattern. Because ontogeny undergoes parallel behavioral and morphological modifications, it may be useful to investigate the biomechanical consequences of the changing body shape. We, therefore, collected accurate quantitative and longitudinal data on positional behaviors, body mass distribution patterns, activities, and environment on a sample of six infant olive baboons, Papio anubis. These baboons are kept at the Primatology Station of the CNRS, France, where they live within the same social group. Individual behaviors were quantified using the focal sampling method. The body mass distribution was estimated according to a geometric model based on direct external measurements. Multivariate analysis enabled us to analyze the interactions between the data. Our results show that body mass distribution changes together with the ontogenetic changes in positional behaviors. At an early age, individuals have distally heavy segment masses in the limbs and an important fraction of the behavioral repertoire involves efficient grasping abilities. At the end of infancy, the same individuals have relatively more mass in proximal segments of the limbs and the proportion of quadrupedal walking is significantly higher while other climbing and suspensory behaviors decreased substantially. The present study experimentally confirms the association between body mass distribution and the positional repertoire of primates. These relationships, when interpreted in the context of basic biomechanical concepts, may improve our understanding of primate locomotion. We discuss further the implications of these functional relationships when modeling the evolutionary pathway of primates. Am. J. Primatol. 78:1201-1221, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Asymmetric changes of growth and reproductive investment herald altitudinal and latitudinal range shifts of two woody species.

PubMed

Matías, Luis; Jump, Alistair S

2015-02-01

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of the geographical distribution of a species, where range expansions or contractions may occur. Current demographical status at geographical range limits can help us to predict population trends and their implications for the future distribution of the species. Thus, understanding the comparability of demographical patterns occurring along both altitudinal and latitudinal gradients would be highly informative. In this study, we analyse the differences in the demography of two woody species through altitudinal gradients at their southernmost distribution limit and the consistency of demographical patterns at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the complete distribution range. We focus on Pinus sylvestris and Juniperus communis, assessing their demographical structure (density, age and mortality rate), growth, reproduction investment and damage from herbivory on 53 populations covering the upper, central and lower altitudes as well as the treeline at central latitude and northernmost and southernmost latitudinal distribution limits. For both species, populations at the lowermost altitude presented older age structure, higher mortality, decreased growth and lower reproduction when compared to the upper limit, indicating higher fitness at the treeline. This trend at the treeline was generally maintained through the latitudinal gradient, but with a decreased growth at the northern edge for both species and lower reproduction for P. sylvestris. However, altitudinal and latitudinal transects are not directly comparable as factors other than climate, including herbivore pressure or human management, must be taken into account if we are to understand how to infer latitudinal processes from altitudinal data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Working Time in Comparative Perspective. Volume I: Patterns, Trends, and the Policy Implications for Earnings Inequality and Unemployment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wong, Ging, Ed.; Picot, Garnett, Ed.

This is the first of two volumes of selected papers presented at the 1996 conference on "Changes in Working Time in Canada and the United States." Eleven chapters focus on weekly hours worked by individuals, including the recent changes in the distribution of weekly working time in Canada and the U.S., implications of the changing…

Cetacean response to environmental and anthropogenic drivers of change: Results of a 25-year distribution study in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azzellino, Arianna; Airoldi, Sabina; Lanfredi, Caterina; Podestà, Michela; Zanardelli, Margherita

2017-12-01

Marine mammals are in many situations one of the most studied component of marine ecosystems. Their habitat requirements may be used to detect and describe the impacts of changes in the environmental conditions or in the human-induced pressures affecting the area where they live. The aim of this study is to investigate the distribution patterns of the most frequent cetacean species occurring in the area of the Pelagos Sanctuary (Northwestern Mediterranean Sea) and their potential correlations with both environmental and anthropogenic drivers of changes. Two different types of data were used: sighting data from ship-board surveys and strandings data collected along the Ligurian coast by the Italian Stranding Network, spanning from 1986 to 2014. Sighting data were collected during summer surveys conducted from June to September, between 1990 and 2014 in an area of approximately 29,000 km2, within the Pelagos Sanctuary for over 115,000 km surveyed under favorable conditions. A total of 4,683 sightings of the five most common cetacean species were collected: 3,305 (70.5%) striped dolphins, 814 (17.3%) fin whales, 169 (3.6%) Risso's dolphins, 347 (7.4%) sperm whales and 48 (1.02%) Cuvier's beaked whales. The species time series of both encounter and stranding rates have been investigated in the light of potential drivers of changes. The results suggest that the area may be suffering from some ecosystem change which is causing the observed changes in the distribution pattern of the five species. Potential disturbance from human activities, namely fishery and maritime traffic, could not be excluded.

Quantifying salinity-induced changes on estuarine benthic fauna: The potential implications of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, S.; Wood, P. J.; Elliott, M.

2017-11-01

Coastal and estuarine systems worldwide are under threat from global climate change, with potential consequences including an increase in salinities and incursion of saltwater into areas currently subject to tidal and non-tidal freshwater regimes. It is commonly assumed that climate-driven increases in estuarine salinities and saline incursion will be directly reflected in an upstream shift in species distributions and patterns of community composition based on salinity tolerance. This study examined the responses of benthos to medium-term salinity changes in two macrotidal river-estuary systems in SE England to test whether these responses may be representative of climate-induced salinity changes over the long-term. The study reinforced the effect of salinity, related to tidal incursion, as the primary environmental driver of benthic species distribution and community composition. Salinity, however, acted within a hierarchy of factors followed by substratum type, with biotic competition and predator-prey relationships superimposed on these. The assumption that increasing salinities will be directly reflected in a shift in species distributions and patterns of community composition upstream over the long-term was shown to be over simplistic and not representative of a complex and highly variable system. Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) projections were predicted to increase estuarine salinities and saline incursion in the study estuaries, which together with projected reductions in river flow will have important consequences for estuarine structure and function, particularly in tidal limnetic zones, despite estuarine communities being pre-adapted to cope with fluctuating salinities. The study identified, however, that limnic-derived fauna inhabiting these zones may demonstrate greater tolerance to salinity change than is currently recognised, and may persist where salinity increases are gradual and zones unbounded.

[Prediction of the potential distribution of Tibetan medicinal Lycium ruthenicum in context of climate change].

PubMed

Lin, Li; Jin, Ling; Wang, Zhen-Heng; Cui, Zhi-Jia; Ma, Yi

2017-07-01

To predict the suitable distribution patterns of Lycium ruthenicum in the present and future under the background of climate change, and provide reference for the resources sustainable utilization and GAP standardized planting. The software of Maxent and ArcGis was used to predict the potential suitable regions and grades of L. ruthenicum in China based on the 149 distribution information, climate data of contemporary (1950-2000) and future (20-80 decade of 21 century), and considering of three greenhouse gaseous emission scenario. The results showed that：the suitable distribution regions of L. ruthenicum are mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Neimenggu, and Ningxia province in present. In addition, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Xizang are also distribution regions.The suitable distribution area of L. ruthenicum is 284.506 949×104 km2, accounted for 29.6% of the land area of China.The relatively stable area of the suitable regions accounted for 25.2% of the total suitable region area.Under the background of climate change, compared with contemporary, the total area of suitable region is reducing and moderately suitable area is increasing at different degree at the 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 decade of 21 century. Climate change both can change the total area of suitable regions and habitat suitability of L. ruthenicum. It could provide a strategic guidance for protection, development and utilization of L. ruthenicum though the prediction of potential suitable regions distribution of L. ruthenicum based on the mainly factor of climate change. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects.

PubMed

Jaramillo, Eduardo; Dugan, Jenifer E; Hubbard, David M; Contreras, Heraldo; Duarte, Cristian; Acuña, Emilio; Schoeman, David S

2017-01-01

Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal ecosystem, and for one species, across hemispheres in this space-for-time substitution, suggests predictions of ecosystem responses to thermal effects of climate change may potentially be generalised, with important implications for coastal conservation.

Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects

PubMed Central

Dugan, Jenifer E.; Hubbard, David M.; Contreras, Heraldo; Duarte, Cristian; Acuña, Emilio; Schoeman, David S.

2017-01-01

Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal ecosystem, and for one species, across hemispheres in this space-for-time substitution, suggests predictions of ecosystem responses to thermal effects of climate change may potentially be generalised, with important implications for coastal conservation. PMID:28481897

Lineage-specific responses of microbial communities to environmental change.

PubMed

Youngblut, Nicholas D; Shade, Ashley; Read, Jordan S; McMahon, Katherine D; Whitaker, Rachel J

2013-01-01

A great challenge facing microbial ecology is how to define ecologically relevant taxonomic units. To address this challenge, we investigated how changing the definition of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) influences the perception of ecological patterns in microbial communities as they respond to a dramatic environmental change. We used pyrosequenced tags of the bacterial V2 16S rRNA region, as well as clone libraries constructed from the cytochrome oxidase C gene ccoN, to provide additional taxonomic resolution for the common freshwater genus Polynucleobacter. At the most highly resolved taxonomic scale, we show that distinct genotypes associated with the abundant Polynucleobacter lineages exhibit divergent spatial patterns and dramatic changes over time, while the also abundant Actinobacteria OTUs are highly coherent. This clearly demonstrates that different bacterial lineages demand different taxonomic definitions to capture ecological patterns. Based on the temporal distribution of highly resolved taxa in the hypolimnion, we demonstrate that change in the population structure of a single genotype can provide additional insight into the mechanisms of community-level responses. These results highlight the importance and feasibility of examining ecological change in microbial communities across taxonomic scales while also providing valuable insight into the ecological characteristics of ecologically coherent groups in this system.

Irradiance tailoring by fractional Fourier transform of a radial Gaussian beam array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Pu; Wang, Xiaolin; Ma, Yanxing; Ma, Haotong; Liu, Zejin

2011-03-01

The fractional Fourier transform (FRFT) is applied to a radial Gaussian beam array. Analytical formula is derived for the irradiance distribution of coherent and incoherent radial Gaussian beam array in FRFT domain using Collins integral formula. It is revealed that the irradiance pattern can be tailored to be controllable dark-hollow, flat-topped and Gaussian beam pattern by changing of the fractional order of FRFT and the coherent state of the laser array.

Irradiance tailoring by fractional Fourier transform of a radial Gaussian beam array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Pu; Wang, Xiaolin; Ma, Yanxing; Ma, Haotong; Liu, Zejin

2010-07-01

The fractional Fourier transform (FRFT) is applied to a radial Gaussian beam array. Analytical formula is derived for the irradiance distribution of coherent and incoherent radial Gaussian beam array in FRFT domain using Collins integral formula. It is revealed that the irradiance pattern can be tailored to be controllable dark-hollow, flat-topped and Gaussian beam pattern by changing of the fractional order of FRFT and the coherent state of the laser array.

The Influence of Shaping Air Pressure of Pneumatic Spray Gun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wenzhuo; Chen, Yan; Pan, Haiwei; Zhang, Weiming; Li, Bo

2018-02-01

The shaping air pressure is a very important parameter in the application of pneumatic spray gun, and studying its influence on spray flow field and film thickness distribution has practical values. In this paper, Euler-Lagrangian method is adopted to describe the two-phase spray flow of pneumatic painting process, and the air flow fields, spray patterns and dynamic film thickness distributions were obtained with the help of the computational fluid dynamics code—ANSYS Fluent. Results show that with the increase of the shaping air pressure, the air phase flow field spreads in the plane perpendicular to the shaping air hole plane, the spray pattern becomes narrower and flatter, and the width of the dynamic film increases with the reduced maximum value of the film thickness. But the film thickness distribution seems to change little with the shaping air pressure decreasing from 0.6bar to 0.9bar.

Population-Level Transcriptomic Responses of the Southern Ocean Salp Salpa thompsoni to Environment Variability of the Western Antarctic Peninsula Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucklin, A. C.; Batta Lona, P. G.; Maas, A. E.; O'Neill, R. J.; Wiebe, P. H.

2015-12-01

In response to the changing Antarctic climate, the Southern Ocean salp Salpa thompsoni has shown altered patterns of distribution and abundance that are anticipated to have profound impacts on pelagic food webs and ecosystem dynamics. The physiological and molecular processes that underlay ecological function and biogeographical distribution are key to understanding present-day dynamics and predicting future trajectories. This study examined transcriptome-wide patterns of gene expression in relation to biological and physical oceanographic conditions in coastal, shelf and offshore waters of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region during austral spring and summer 2011. Based on field observations and collections, seasonal changes in the distribution and abundance of salps of different life stages were associated with differences in water mass structure of the WAP. Our observations are consistent with previous suggestions that bathymetry and currents in Bransfield Strait could generate a retentive cell for an overwintering population of S. thompsoni, which may generate the characteristic salp blooms found throughout the region later in summer. The statistical analysis of transcriptome-wide patterns of gene expression revealed differences among salps collected in different seasons and from different habitats (i.e., coastal versus offshore) in the WAP. Gene expression patterns also clustered by station in austral spring - but not summer - collections, suggesting stronger heterogeneity of environmental conditions. During the summer, differentially expressed genes covered a wider range of functions, including those associated with stress responses. Future research using novel molecular transcriptomic / genomic characterization of S. thompsoni will allow more complete understanding of individual-, population-, and species-level responses to environmental variability and prediction of future dynamics of Southern Ocean food webs and ecosystems.

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Climate change and farmers’ cropping patterns in Cemoro watershed area, Central Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugihardjo; Sutrisno, J.; Setyono, P.; Suntoro

2018-03-01

Cropping pattern applied by farmers is usually based on the availability of water. Farmers cultivate rice when water is available. If it is unavailable, farmers will choose to plant crops that need less water. Climate change greatly affects to farmers in determining the cropping pattern as it alters the rainfall pattern and distribution in the region. This condition requires farmers to adjust the cropping pattern so that they can do the farming successfully. This study aims to examine the application of cropping patterns applied by the farmers in the Cemoro Watershed, Central Java, Indonesia. Descriptive analysis approach is employed in this research. The results showed that farmers’ cropping pattern is not based on the availability of water. However, it adopts a habit that has been practiced since long time ago or just adopt others farmer's habit. The cropping pattern applied by irrigated paddy farmers in Cemoro watershed area consists of two types: rice-rice-rice and rice-rice-secondary crops. Among those two types, most farmers apply the rice-rice-rice pattern. Meanwhile, there are three cropping patterns applied in the rain-land, namely rice-rice-rice, rice-rice-secondary crop, and rice-rice-fallow. The majority of farmers apply the second pattern (rice-rice-secondary crops). It was also found that farmers’ cropping pattern was not in accordance with the recommendation of the local government.

Long-term changes of tree species composition and distribution in Korean mountain forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Boknam; Lee, Hoontaek; Cho, Sunhee; Yoon, Jongguk; Park, Jongyoung; Kim, Hyun Seok

2017-04-01

Long-term changes in the abundance and distribution of tree species in the temperate forests of South Korea remain poorly understood. We investigated how tree species composition and stand distribution change across temperate mountainous forests using the species composition and DBH size collected over the past 15 years (1998-2012) across 130 permanent forest plots of 0.1 ha in Jiri and Baegun mountains in South Korea. The overall net change of tree communities over the years showed positive in terms of stand density, richness, diversity, and evenness. At the species level, the change of relative species composition has been led by intermediate and shade-tolerant species, such as Quercus mongolica, Carpinus laxiflora, Quercus serrate, Quercus variabilis, Styrax japonicus, Lindera erythrocarpa, and Pinus densiflora and was categorized into five species communities, representing gradual increase or decrease, establishment, extinction, fluctuation of species population. At the community level, the change in species composition appeared to have consistent and directional patterns of increase in the annual rate of change in the mean species traits including species density, pole growth rate, adult growth rate, and adult stature. Based on the additive models, the distribution of species diversity was significantly related to topographical variables including elevation, latitude, longitude, slope, topographic wetness index, and curvature where elevation was the most significant driver, followed by latitude and longitude. However, the change in distribution of species diversity was only significantly influenced by latitude and longitude. This is the first study to reveal the long-term dynamics of change in tree species composition and distribution, which are important to broaden our understanding of temperate mountainous forest ecosystem in South Korea.

The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx.

PubMed

Row, Jeffrey R; Wilson, Paul J; Gomez, Celine; Koen, Erin L; Bowman, Jeff; Thornton, Daniel; Murray, Dennis L

2014-07-01

Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic-climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west-to-east) across the Pacific-North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041-2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east-west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing risk based on uncertain avalanche activity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeidler, Antonia; Fromm, Reinhard

2015-04-01

Avalanches may affect critical infrastructure and may cause great economic losses. The planning horizon of infrastructures, e.g. hydropower generation facilities, reaches well into the future. Based on the results of previous studies on the effect of changing meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature) and the effect on avalanche activity we assume that there will be a change of the risk pattern in future. The decision makers need to understand what the future might bring to best formulate their mitigation strategies. Therefore, we explore a commercial risk software to calculate risk for the coming years that might help in decision processes. The software @risk, is known to many larger companies, and therefore we explore its capabilities to include avalanche risk simulations in order to guarantee a comparability of different risks. In a first step, we develop a model for a hydropower generation facility that reflects the problem of changing avalanche activity patterns in future by selecting relevant input parameters and assigning likely probability distributions. The uncertain input variables include the probability of avalanches affecting an object, the vulnerability of an object, the expected costs for repairing the object and the expected cost due to interruption. The crux is to find the distribution that best represents the input variables under changing meteorological conditions. Our focus is on including the uncertain probability of avalanches based on the analysis of past avalanche data and expert knowledge. In order to explore different likely outcomes we base the analysis on three different climate scenarios (likely, worst case, baseline). For some variables, it is possible to fit a distribution to historical data, whereas in cases where the past dataset is insufficient or not available the software allows to select from over 30 different distribution types. The Monte Carlo simulation uses the probability distribution of uncertain variables using all valid combinations of the values of input variables to simulate all possible outcomes. In our case the output is the expected risk (Euro/year) for each object (e.g. water intake) considered and the entire hydropower generation system. The output is again a distribution that is interpreted by the decision makers as the final strategy depends on the needs and requirements of the end-user, which may be driven by personal preferences. In this presentation, we will show a way on how we used the uncertain information on avalanche activity in future to subsequently use it in a commercial risk software and therefore bringing the knowledge of natural hazard experts to decision makers.

Deoxygenation alters bacterial diversity and community composition in the ocean's largest oxygen minimum zone.

PubMed

Beman, J Michael; Carolan, Molly T

2013-01-01

Oceanic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) have a central role in biogeochemical cycles and are expanding as a consequence of climate change, yet how deoxygenation will affect the microbial communities that control these cycles is unclear. Here we sample across dissolved oxygen gradients in the oceans' largest OMZ and show that bacterial richness displays a unimodal pattern with decreasing dissolved oxygen, reaching maximum values on the edge of the OMZ and decreasing within it. Rare groups on the OMZ margin are abundant at lower dissolved oxygen concentrations, including sulphur-cycling Chromatiales, for which 16S rRNA was amplified from extracted RNA. Microbial species distribution models accurately replicate community patterns based on multivariate environmental data, demonstrate likely changes in distributions and diversity in the eastern tropical North Pacific Ocean, and highlight the sensitivity of key bacterial groups to deoxygenation. Through these mechanisms, OMZ expansion may alter microbial composition, competition, diversity and function, all of which have implications for biogeochemical cycling in OMZs.

Deoxygenation alters bacterial diversity and community composition in the ocean’s largest oxygen minimum zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beman, J. Michael; Carolan, Molly T.

2013-10-01

Oceanic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) have a central role in biogeochemical cycles and are expanding as a consequence of climate change, yet how deoxygenation will affect the microbial communities that control these cycles is unclear. Here we sample across dissolved oxygen gradients in the oceans’ largest OMZ and show that bacterial richness displays a unimodal pattern with decreasing dissolved oxygen, reaching maximum values on the edge of the OMZ and decreasing within it. Rare groups on the OMZ margin are abundant at lower dissolved oxygen concentrations, including sulphur-cycling Chromatiales, for which 16S rRNA was amplified from extracted RNA. Microbial species distribution models accurately replicate community patterns based on multivariate environmental data, demonstrate likely changes in distributions and diversity in the eastern tropical North Pacific Ocean, and highlight the sensitivity of key bacterial groups to deoxygenation. Through these mechanisms, OMZ expansion may alter microbial composition, competition, diversity and function, all of which have implications for biogeochemical cycling in OMZs.

Linked hydrologic and climate variations in British Columbia and Yukon.

PubMed

Whitfield, P H

2001-01-01

Climatic and hydrologic variations between the decades 1976-1985 and 1986-1995 are examined at 34 climate stations and 275 hydrology stations. The variations in climate are distributed across a broad spatial area. Temperatures were generally warmer in the most recent decade, with many stations showing significant increases during the spring and fall. No significant decreases in temperature were found. Significant increases in temperature were more frequent in the south than in the northern portions of the region. Significant changes in precipitation were also more prevalent in the south. In coastal areas, there were significant decreases in precipitation during the dry season, and significant increases during the wet season. In the BC interior, significant precipitation decreases occurred during the fall, with significant increases during the winter and spring. In the north there were few changes in precipitation. The hydrologic responses to these variations in climate follow six distinctive patterns. The spatial distribution of these patterns suggests that in different ecozones, small variations in climate, particularly temperature, elicit different hydrologic responses.

Patterns of foraging and distribution of bluegill sunfish in a Mississippi River backwater: Influence of macrophytes and predation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dewey, M.R.; Richardson, W.B.; Zigler, S.J.

1997-01-01

We studied the trophic interactions and spatial distributions of bluegills Lepomis macrochirus and largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides in a macrophyte bed in Lake Onalaska, a backwater lake in the upper Mississippi River. The diets of adult and age-0 bluegills were similar and changed seasonally probably in response to changes in life stages of macroinvertebrates (i.e. emergence of winged adults). Diets and diel patterns of abundance of bluegill suggest that age-0 and adults were feeding in the vegetated, littoral zone. Predation by age-0 largemouth bass appears to influence use of vegetated habitat by age-0 bluegills. In summer, when most age-0 bluegills were vulnerable to predation by age-0 largemouth bass, bluegill abundance was strongly correlated with vegetation biomass. In October and November, piscivory by age-0 largemouth bass was limited by gape. Consequently, the relationship between the abundance of age-0 bluegills and vegetation biomass was weakened because predation risk by age-0 largemouth bass was reduced.

Ranges of North American breeding birds: visualizing long-term population changes in North American breeding birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Price, Jeff

1995-01-01

These maps show changes in the distribution and abundance patterns of some North American birds for the last 20 years. For each species there are four maps, each representing the average distribution and abundance pattern over the five-year periods 1970-1974, 1975-1979, 1980-1984, and 1985-1989. The maps are based on data collected by the USFWS/CWS Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Only BBS routes that were run at least once during each of the five-year periods were used (about 1300 routes). The maps were created in the software package Surfer using a kriging technique to interpolate mean relative abundances for areas where no routes were run. On each map, a portion of northeast Canada was blanked out because there were not enough routes to allow for adequate interpolation. All of the maps in this presentation use the same color scale (shown below). The minimum value mapped was 0.5 birds per route, which represents the edge of the species range.

Differences in Pain Location, Intensity and Quality by Pain Pattern in Outpatients with Cancer

PubMed Central

Ngamkham, Srisuda; Holden, Janean E.; Wilkie, Diana J.

2013-01-01

Pain pattern represents how the individual’s pain changes temporally with activities or other factors. Understanding pain pattern is important for appropriate timing of pain interventions, but researchers have studied less the temporal aspects of cancer pain than pain location, intensity, and quality parameters. The study purpose was to explore differences in pain location, intensity, and quality by pattern groups in outpatients with cancer. We conducted a comparative, secondary data analysis of data collected from 1994 to 2007. 762 outpatients with cancer had completed the 0-to-10 Pain Intensity Number Scale and the McGill Pain Questionnaire to measure pain location, quality and pattern. From all possible combinations of the three types of pain patterns, we created seven pain pattern groups. The distribution of pain pattern was: pattern-1 (27%); pattern-2 (24%); pattern-3 (8%); pattern-4 (12%); pattern-5 (3%); pattern-6 (18%); and pattern-7 (8%). A statistically significant higher proportion of patients with continuous pain patterns (pattern 1, 4, 5, and 7) reported pain location in two or more sites. Patients with pattern 1, 4, and 7 reported statistically significant, higher worst pain mean scores than patients with pattern 2, 3, and 6 (not continuous descriptors). Patients with pattern7 reported statistically significant, higher mean scores (pain rating index-sensory and total number of words selected) than patients with pattern1, 2, 3, 4, and 6. Using pain pattern groups may help clinicians to understand temporal changes in cancer pain and to provide more effective pain management by recognizing the high risk if the pain is continuous. PMID:21512345

Distributions and Changes of Carbonate Parameters Along the U.S. East Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y. Y.; Cai, W. J.; Wanninkhof, R. H.; Salisbury, J., II

2017-12-01

On top of anthropogenic climate change, upwelling, eutrophication, river discharge, and interactions with the open ocean have affected carbonate chemistry in coastal waters. In this study, we present the large-scale variations of carbonate parameters along the U.S. east coast using in situ observations obtained during an East Coast Ocean Acidification (ECOA) cruise in summer 2015. Compare with previous large-scale cruises along the east coast, the ECOA cruise increases spatial coverage in the Gulf of Marine region and has more offshore stations for a better understanding of carbon dynamics in coastal waters and their interactions with open ocean waters. Our results show that the spatial distribution of water mass properties set up the large-scale advection of salt and heat and the distribution of total alkalinity (TA). However, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) shows a distinct pattern. Coastal water pH displays high variability in the Gulf of Maine and the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). But it is relatively homogeneous in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB). In contrast, the distribution of aragonite saturation state (Ω) has an increase pattern from north to south similar to those of TA, SST, and SSS. A mechanistic discussion will be presented to understand the controls on Ω in eastern coastal waters. A comparison with previous cruises also suggests very different changes of pH and Ω in the MAB and SAB. Preliminary analysis suggests an overall increase in surface pH and Ω in the MAB. In contrast, pH and Ω in the SAB surface waters decrease over the past two decades. This work serves as a platform for the monitoring of large-scale carbon cycling in the U.S. east coast. It is also important to identify the physical and biogeochemical processes that affect these distributions and changes over time for a better understanding of carbon cycling and ocean acidification in coastal waters.

Competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents is a slow process: Evidence and implications for species distribution modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.

2016-01-01

There is considerable debate about the role of competition in shaping species distributions over broad spatial extents. This debate has practical implications because predicting changes in species' geographic ranges in response to ongoing environmental change would be simpler if competition could be ignored. While this debate has been the subject of many reviews, recent literature has not addressed the rates of relevant processes. This omission is surprising in that ecologists hypothesized decades ago that regional competitive exclusion is a slow process. The goal of this review is to reassess the debate under the hypothesis that competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents is a slow process.Available evidence, including simulations presented for the first time here, suggests that competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents occurs slowly over temporal extents of many decades to millennia. Ecologists arguing against an important role for competition frequently study modern patterns and/or range dynamics over periods of decades, while much of the evidence for competition shaping geographic ranges at broad spatial extents comes from paleoecological studies over time scales of centuries or longer. If competition is slow, as evidence suggests, the geographic distributions of some, perhaps many species, would continue to change over time scales of decades to millennia, even if environmental conditions did not continue to change. If the distributions of competing species are at equilibrium it is possible to predict species distributions based on observed species–environment relationships. However, disequilibrium is widespread as a result of competition and many other processes. Studies whose goal is accurate predictions over intermediate time scales (decades to centuries) should focus on factors associated with range expansion (colonization) and loss (local extinction), as opposed to current patterns. In general, understanding of modern range dynamics would be enhanced by considering the rates of relevant processes.

Postglacial recolonization history of the European crabapple (Malus sylvestris Mill.), a wild contributor to the domesticated apple.

PubMed

Cornille, A; Giraud, T; Bellard, C; Tellier, A; Le Cam, B; Smulders, M J M; Kleinschmit, J; Roldan-Ruiz, I; Gladieux, P

2013-04-01

Understanding the way in which the climatic oscillations of the Quaternary Period have shaped the distribution and genetic structure of extant tree species provides insight into the processes driving species diversification, distribution and survival. Deciphering the genetic consequences of past climatic change is also critical for the conservation and sustainable management of forest and tree genetic resources, a timely endeavour as the Earth heads into a period of fast climate change. We used a combination of genetic data and ecological niche models to investigate the historical patterns of biogeographic range expansion of a wild fruit tree, the European crabapple (Malus sylvestris), a wild contributor to the domesticated apple. Both climatic predictions for the last glacial maximum and analyses of microsatellite variation indicated that M. sylvestris experienced range contraction and fragmentation. Bayesian clustering analyses revealed a clear pattern of genetic structure, with one genetic cluster spanning a large area in Western Europe and two other genetic clusters with a more limited distribution range in Eastern Europe, one around the Carpathian Mountains and the other restricted to the Balkan Peninsula. Approximate Bayesian computation appeared to be a powerful technique for inferring the history of these clusters, supporting a scenario of simultaneous differentiation of three separate glacial refugia. Admixture between these three populations was found in their suture zones. A weak isolation by distance pattern was detected within each population, indicating a high extent of historical gene flow for the European crabapple. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The theory behind, and the challenges of, conserving nature's stage in a time of rapid change.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J; Ackerly, David D; Albano, Christine M; Anderson, Mark G; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Gill, Jacquelyn L; Heller, Nicole E; Pressey, Robert L; Sanderson, Eric W; Weiss, Stuart B

2015-06-01

Most conservation planning to date has focused on protecting today's biodiversity with the assumption that it will be tomorrow's biodiversity. However, modern climate change has already resulted in distributional shifts of some species and is projected to result in many more shifts in the coming decades. As species redistribute and biotic communities reorganize, conservation plans based on current patterns of biodiversity may fail to adequately protect species in the future. One approach for addressing this issue is to focus on conserving a range of abiotic conditions in the conservation-planning process. By doing so, it may be possible to conserve an abiotically diverse "stage" upon which evolution will play out and support many actors (biodiversity). We reviewed the fundamental underpinnings of the concept of conserving the abiotic stage, starting with the early observations of von Humboldt, who mapped the concordance of abiotic conditions and vegetation, and progressing to the concept of the ecological niche. We discuss challenges posed by issues of spatial and temporal scale, the role of biotic drivers of species distributions, and latitudinal and topographic variation in relationships between climate and landform. For example, abiotic conditions are not static, but change through time-albeit at different and often relatively slow rates. In some places, biotic interactions play a substantial role in structuring patterns of biodiversity, meaning that patterns of biodiversity may be less tightly linked to the abiotic stage. Furthermore, abiotic drivers of biodiversity can change with latitude and topographic position, meaning that the abiotic stage may need to be defined differently in different places. We conclude that protecting a diversity of abiotic conditions will likely best conserve biodiversity into the future in places where abiotic drivers of species distributions are strong relative to biotic drivers, where the diversity of abiotic settings will be conserved through time, and where connectivity allows for movement among areas providing different abiotic conditions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Modeling of the Nano- and Picoseismicity Rate Changes Resulting from Static Stress Triggering due to Small (MW2.2) Event Recorded at Mponeng Deep Gold Mine, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlowska, M.; Orlecka-Sikora, B.; Kwiatek, G.; Boettcher, M. S.; Dresen, G. H.

2014-12-01

Static stress changes following large earthquakes are known to affect the rate and spatio-temporal distribution of the aftershocks. Here we utilize a unique dataset of M ≥ -3.4 earthquakes following a MW 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa, to investigate this process for nano- and pico- scale seismicity at centimeter length scales in shallow, mining conditions. The aftershock sequence was recorded during a quiet interval in the mine and thus enabled us to perform the analysis using Dietrich's (1994) rate and state dependent friction law. The formulation for earthquake productivity requires estimation of Coulomb stress changes due to the mainshock, the reference seismicity rate, frictional resistance parameter, and the duration of aftershock relaxation time. We divided the area into six depth intervals and for each we estimated the parameters and modeled the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity rates after the stress perturbation. Comparing the modeled patterns of seismicity with the observed distribution we found that while the spatial patterns match well, the rate of modeled aftershocks is lower than the observed rate. To test our model, we used four metrics of the goodness-of-fit evaluation. Testing procedure allowed rejecting the null hypothesis of no significant difference between seismicity rates only for one depth interval containing the mainshock, for the other, no significant differences have been found. Results show that mining-induced earthquakes may be followed by a stress relaxation expressed through aftershocks located on the rupture plane and in regions of positive Coulomb stress change. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the main features of the temporal and spatial distribution of very small, mining-induced earthquakes at shallow depths can be successfully determined using rate- and state-based stress modeling.

Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world.

PubMed

Bebber, Daniel Patrick

2015-01-01

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

Cytherellid species (Ostracoda) and their significance to the Late Quaternary events in the Santos Basin, Brazil

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bergue, C.T.; Coimbra, J.C.; Cronin, T. M.

2007-01-01

Four autochthonous cytherellid species (Cytherella serratula (BRADY, 1880), C. hermargentina WHATLEY et al. 1998, C. pleistocenica sp. nov. and C. santosensis sp. nov.) have been identified from two offshore cores (44 samples) within the Santos Basin. The distribution of these ostracodes is controlled by local hydrological conditions such as the temperature and, possibly, the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). However, these factors cannot explain completely the species occurrence in the analysed cores, and relative sea level changes and productivity variation driven by climatic changes are proposed as additional explanations for the faunal distribution pattern. ?? E. Schweizerbart'sche Verlagsbuchhandlung (Na??gele u. Obermiller), 2007.

Observed and theoretical variations of atmospheric ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

London, J.

1976-01-01

Results are summarized from three areas of ozone research: (1) continued analysis of the global distribution of total ozone to extend the global ozone atlas to summarize 15 years (1957-72) of ground based observations; (2) analysis of balloon borne ozonesonde observations for Arosa, Switzerland, and Hohenpeissenberg, Germany (GFR); (3) contined processing of the (Orbiting Geophysical Observatory-4) satellite data to complete the analysis of the stratospheric ozone distribution from the available OGO-4 data. Results of the analysis of the total ozone observations indicated that the long term ozone variation have marked regional patterns and tend to alternate with season and hemisphere. It is becoming increasingly clear that these long period changes are associated with large scale variations in the general upper atmosphere circulation patterns.

Developmental changes in the distribution of cecal lectin-binding sites of Balb-c mice.

PubMed

Doehrn, S; Breipohl, W; Lierse, W; Romaniuk, K; Young, W

1992-01-01

The existence of lectin-binding sites was investigated in the cecum of Balb-c mice at seven developmental stages ranging from 18 days post conception (p.c.) to 8 weeks after birth. Nine horseradish-peroxidase-conjugated lectins (concanavalin A, Triticum vulgaris, Dolichus biflorus, Helix pomatia, Arachis hypogaea, Glycine maximus, Lotus tetragonolobus, Ulex europaeus, Limulus polyphemus) were applied to 5- to 7-microns thin paraffin sections of Bouin-fixed tissue. After DAB staining the sections were evaluated by light microscopy. It was shown that each lectin exhibits a unique developmental pattern. The adult binding patterns were established at the age of 3-4 weeks with only minor changes occurring thereafter. Considerable differences in binding patterns occurred not only between lectins of different groups but also between lectins with the same nominal monosaccharide specificity.

Modelling benthic macrofauna and seagrass distribution patterns in a North Sea tidal basin in response to 2050 climatic and environmental scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Anja; Millat, Gerald; Staneva, Joanna; Kröncke, Ingrid

2017-03-01

Small-scale spatial distribution patterns of seven macrofauna species, seagrass beds and mixed mussel/oyster reefs were modelled for the Jade Bay (North Sea, Germany) in response to climatic and environmental scenarios (representing 2050). For the species distribution models four presence-absence modelling methods were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform 'biomod2'. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled by statistically related species presences, true species absences and six high-resolution environmental grids. The future spatial distribution was then predicted in response to expected climate change-induced ongoing (1) sea-level rise and (2) water temperature increase. Between 2009 and 2050, the present and future prediction maps revealed a significant range gain for two macrofauna species (Macoma balthica, Tubificoides benedii), whereas the species' range sizes of five macrofauna species remained relatively stable across space and time. The predicted probability of occurrence (PO) of two macrofauna species (Cerastoderma edule, Scoloplos armiger) decreased significantly under the potential future habitat conditions. In addition, a clear seagrass bed extension (Zostera noltii) on the lower intertidal flats (mixed sediments) and a decrease in the PO of mixed Mytilus edulis/Crassostrea gigas reefs was predicted for 2050. Until the mid-21st century, our future climatic and environmental scenario revealed significant changes in the range sizes (gains-losses) and/or the PO (increases-decreases) for seven of the 10 modelled species at the study site.

Biogeography of top predators - seabirds and cetaceans - along four latitudinal transects in the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungblut, Simon; Nachtsheim, Dominik A.; Boos, Karin; Joiris, Claude R.

2017-07-01

The distribution, abundance, and species assemblage of top predators - seabirds and cetaceans - can be correlated to water masses as defined by hydrological parameters. In comparison to other oceans, information about the structuring effects of water masses on top predators in the Atlantic Ocean is limited. The present study aims 1) to provide baseline distributional data of top predators for future comparisons, for instance in the course of climate change, and 2) to test how water masses and seasons affect distributional patterns of seabirds and cetaceans in the temperate and tropical Atlantic. During four trans-equatorial expeditions of the RV Polarstern between 2011 and 2014, at-sea observation data of seabirds, cetaceans and other megafauna were collected. Counts of top predators were generally low in the surveyed regions. Statistical analyses for the eight most abundant seabird species and the pooled number of cetaceans revealed water masses and seasons to account for differences in counts and thus also distribution. In most cases, borders between water masses were not very distinct due to gradual changes in surface water properties. Thus, top predator counts were correlated to water masses but, in contrast to polar waters, not strongly linked to borders between water masses. Additional factors, e.g. distance to locally productive areas (upwelling), competition effects, and seabird associations to prey-accumulating subsurface predators may be similarly important in shaping distributional patterns of top predators in the tropical and temperate Atlantic, but could not be specifically tested for here.

Epidemiology of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Czech Republic 1970–2008

PubMed Central

Maly, Marek; Benes, Cestmir; Daniel, Milan

2012-01-01

Abstract This article presents major epidemiologic features of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in the Czech Republic, using data of laboratory-confirmed cases since 1970. A total of 17,053 cases of TBE were reported in the Czech Republic (population 10 million) in 1970–2008. The data show several important features. First, the pattern of TBE incidence changed over time. Until the end of the 1970s, TBE was characterized by periods of alternately higher and lower incidence (between 180 and 595 cases per year); the 1980s were a period of low incidence with minimum variability; since the beginning of the 1990s, there has been a steep rise in incidence, with marked year-to-year variation (e.g., 745 cases were registered in 1995, and a maximum of 1029 cases were registered in 2006). Second, the age distribution of TBE incidence has changed. Until the end of 1990s, incidence peaked among those 15–19 years of age, with a gradual decline with age. In the 2000s, however, TBE incidence has been rising in those aged 60–64 years, with a sharp decline in those older than 65 years. Third, the seasonal pattern of TBE has changed markedly over time. In the earlier period, incidence had a clear peak in July/August; since the 1990s, more cases have occurred in earlier and later months of the year. The proportion of cases occurring in April, May, October, and November increased from 9% in the 1970s to 23% in 2000–2008. Fourth, the geographical distribution of TBE also changed over time, with TBE increasingly occurring in the mountainous districts at higher altitudes. These changes in incidence patterns appear to be linked with changes in climatic and meteorological conditions. The link between climate change and TBE incidence is plausible, since TBE is a recreation-related infection associated with outdoor activities, and since climatic changes affect the life cycle of the vector. PMID:23025693

Seasonal climate variation and caribou availability: Modeling sequential movement using satellite-relocation data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicolson, Craig; Berman, Matthew; West, Colin Thor; Kofinas, Gary P.; Griffith, Brad; Russell, Don; Dugan, Darcy

2013-01-01

Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range.

Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

PubMed

Boucek, Ross E; Heithaus, Michael R; Santos, Rolando; Stevens, Philip; Rehage, Jennifer S

2017-10-01

Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify potential mechanisms that may influence population effects following these disturbances. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Distribution of Cenozoic plant relicts in China explained by drought in dry season.

PubMed

Huang, Yongjiang; Jacques, Frédéric M B; Su, Tao; Ferguson, David K; Tang, Hui; Chen, Wenyun; Zhou, Zhekun

2015-09-15

Cenozoic plant relicts are those groups that were once widespread in the Northern Hemisphere but are now restricted to some small isolated areas as a result of drastic climatic changes. They are good proxies to study how plants respond to climatic changes since their modern climatic requirements are known. Herein we look at the modern distribution of 65 palaeoendemic genera in China and compare it with the Chinese climatic pattern, in order to find a link between the plant distribution and climate. Central China and Taiwan Island are shown to be diversity centres of Cenozoic relict genera, consistent with the fact that these two regions have a shorter dry season with comparatively humid autumn and spring in China. Species distribution models indicate that the precipitation parameters are the most important variables to explain the distribution of relict genera. The Cenozoic wide-scale distribution of relict plants in the Northern Hemisphere is therefore considered to be linked to the widespread humid climate at that time, and the subsequent contraction of their distributional ranges was probably caused by the drying trend along with global cooling.

Distribution of Cenozoic plant relicts in China explained by drought in dry season

PubMed Central

Huang, Yongjiang; Jacques, Frédéric M. B.; Su, Tao; Ferguson, David K.; Tang, Hui; Chen, Wenyun; Zhou, Zhekun

2015-01-01

Cenozoic plant relicts are those groups that were once widespread in the Northern Hemisphere but are now restricted to some small isolated areas as a result of drastic climatic changes. They are good proxies to study how plants respond to climatic changes since their modern climatic requirements are known. Herein we look at the modern distribution of 65 palaeoendemic genera in China and compare it with the Chinese climatic pattern, in order to find a link between the plant distribution and climate. Central China and Taiwan Island are shown to be diversity centres of Cenozoic relict genera, consistent with the fact that these two regions have a shorter dry season with comparatively humid autumn and spring in China. Species distribution models indicate that the precipitation parameters are the most important variables to explain the distribution of relict genera. The Cenozoic wide-scale distribution of relict plants in the Northern Hemisphere is therefore considered to be linked to the widespread humid climate at that time, and the subsequent contraction of their distributional ranges was probably caused by the drying trend along with global cooling. PMID:26369980

Population substructure and space use of Foxe Basin polar bears.

PubMed

Sahanatien, Vicki; Peacock, Elizabeth; Derocher, Andrew E

2015-07-01

Climate change has been identified as a major driver of habitat change, particularly for sea ice-dependent species such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Population structure and space use of polar bears have been challenging to quantify because of their circumpolar distribution and tendency to range over large areas. Knowledge of movement patterns, home range, and habitat is needed for conservation and management. This is the first study to examine the spatial ecology of polar bears in the Foxe Basin management unit of Nunavut, Canada. Foxe Basin is in the mid-Arctic, part of the seasonal sea ice ecoregion and it is being negatively affected by climate change. Our objectives were to examine intrapopulation spatial structure, to determine movement patterns, and to consider how polar bear movements may respond to changing sea ice habitat conditions. Hierarchical and fuzzy cluster analyses were used to assess intrapopulation spatial structure of geographic position system satellite-collared female polar bears. Seasonal and annual movement metrics (home range, movement rates, time on ice) and home-range fidelity (static and dynamic overlap) were compared to examine the influence of regional sea ice on movements. The polar bears were distributed in three spatial clusters, and there were differences in the movement metrics between clusters that may reflect sea ice habitat conditions. Within the clusters, bears moved independently of each other. Annual and seasonal home-range fidelity was observed, and the bears used two movement patterns: on-ice range residency and annual migration. We predict that home-range fidelity may decline as the spatial and temporal predictability of sea ice changes. These new findings also provide baseline information for managing and monitoring this polar bear population.

The effects of prolonged spaceflight on the regional distribution of fluid, muscle and fat: Biostereometric results from Skylab

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whittle, M. W.; Herron, R. L.; Cuzzi, J. R.; Keys, C. W.

1977-01-01

Biostereometric analysis of body form was performed several times preflight and postflight on the astronauts of all three skylab flights. The analysis was made by deriving the three-dimensional coordinates of numerous points on the body surface from stereoscopic pairs of photographs of the subject, using a stereoplotter. The volume of segments of the body, and of the body as a whole, was calculated by integration of cross sectional areas derived from the coordinate data. All nine astronauts demonstrated regional changes in volume distribution which could be related to changes in total body water, muscle mass, and fat deposits. The change in water resulted from a redistribution of fluid in response to zero gravity. Changes in muscle mass resulted from an alternation in patterns of musclar activity in the absence of gravity, and changes in fat resulted from discrepancies between the individual's caloric needs and his food consumption.

Landscape patterns in rainforest phylogenetic signal: isolated islands of refugia or structured continental distributions?

PubMed

Kooyman, Robert M; Rossetto, Maurizio; Sauquet, Hervé; Laffan, Shawn W

2013-01-01

Identify patterns of change in species distributions, diversity, concentrations of evolutionary history, and assembly of Australian rainforests. We used the distribution records of all known rainforest woody species in Australia across their full continental extent. These were analysed using measures of species richness, phylogenetic diversity (PD), phylogenetic endemism (PE) and phylogenetic structure (net relatedness index; NRI). Phylogenetic structure was assessed using both continental and regional species pools. To test the influence of growth-form, freestanding and climbing plants were analysed independently, and in combination. Species richness decreased along two generally orthogonal continental axes, corresponding with wet to seasonally dry and tropical to temperate habitats. The PE analyses identified four main areas of substantially restricted phylogenetic diversity, including parts of Cape York, Wet Tropics, Border Ranges, and Tasmania. The continental pool NRI results showed evenness (species less related than expected by chance) in groups of grid cells in coastally aligned areas of species rich tropical and sub-tropical rainforest, and in low diversity moist forest areas in the south-east of the Great Dividing Range and in Tasmania. Monsoon and drier vine forests, and moist forests inland from upland refugia showed phylogenetic clustering, reflecting lower diversity and more relatedness. Signals for evenness in Tasmania and clustering in northern monsoon forests weakened in analyses using regional species pools. For climbing plants, values for NRI by grid cell showed strong spatial structuring, with high diversity and PE concentrated in moist tropical and subtropical regions. Concentrations of rainforest evolutionary history (phylo-diversity) were patchily distributed within a continuum of species distributions. Contrasting with previous concepts of rainforest community distribution, our findings of continuous distributions and continental connectivity have significant implications for interpreting rainforest evolutionary history and current day ecological processes, and for managing rainforest diversity in changing circumstances.

Projecting distribution of the overwintering population of Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), in Yunnan, China with analysis on key influencing climatic factors.

PubMed

Hu, Shao-Ji; Liu, Xiao-Fei; Fu, Da-Ying; Huang, Wei; Wang, Xue-Ying; Liu, Xiao-Jun; Lü, Jian-Ping; Ye, Hui

2015-01-01

Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) is the most threatening migratory rice pest in Yunnan, China. S. furcifera overwinters in low- altitude basins and valleys in southern Yunnan and migrates northward in spring and summer of the following year, causing serious damage during migration. The overwintering distribution, areas, and spatial pattern of S. furcifera are relevant to the migration and outbreak of this pest. Based on a 4-yr field survey (2010-2013), this study projected areas suitable for S. furcifera to overwinter using a species distribution model, and analyzed the key influencing climatic factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA). Our field survey showed that the northern latitudinal- and upper elevation limits of overwintering S. furcifera was 25.4° N and 1,608 m in western Yunnan and 24.2° N and 1,563 m in eastern Yunnan. The species distribution model produced a fragmented distribution pattern, with most of which in western Yunnan and only a few in eastern Yunnan. The PCA and ENFA analyses showed that the mean temperature of the driest quarter and the precipitation of the coldest quarter significantly influenced the distribution of S. furcifera in winter. The results suggested that the complex topography, spatial differences in winter temperatures, and host availability altogether determined the distribution of overwintering S. furcifera. Compared with previous surveys, the northern latitudinal- and upper elevation limits of overwintering S. furcifera were higher, while the population became rarer in some suitable areas due to change of farmland utilization in winter and possibly climate change. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Differences in spike train variability in rat vasopressin and oxytocin neurons and their relationship to synaptic activity

PubMed Central

Li, Chunyan; Tripathi, Pradeep K; Armstrong, William E

2007-01-01

The firing pattern of magnocellular neurosecretory neurons is intimately related to hormone release, but the relative contribution of synaptic versus intrinsic factors to the temporal dispersion of spikes is unknown. In the present study, we examined the firing patterns of vasopressin (VP) and oxytocin (OT) supraoptic neurons in coronal slices from virgin female rats, with and without blockade of inhibitory and excitatory synaptic currents. Inhibitory postsynaptic currents (IPSCs) were twice as prevalent as their excitatory counterparts (EPSCs), and both were more prevalent in OT compared with VP neurons. Oxytocin neurons fired more slowly and irregularly than VP neurons near threshold. Blockade of Cl− currents (including tonic and synaptic currents) with picrotoxin reduced interspike interval (ISI) variability of continuously firing OT and VP neurons without altering input resistance or firing rate. Blockade of EPSCs did not affect firing pattern. Phasic bursting neurons (putative VP neurons) were inconsistently affected by broad synaptic blockade, suggesting that intrinsic factors may dominate the ISI distribution during this mode in the slice. Specific blockade of synaptic IPSCs with gabazine also reduced ISI variability, but only in OT neurons. In all cases, the effect of inhibitory blockade on firing pattern was independent of any consistent change in input resistance or firing rate. Since the great majority of IPSCs are randomly distributed, miniature events (mIPSCs) in the coronal slice, these findings imply that even mIPSCs can impart irregularity to the firing pattern of OT neurons in particular, and could be important in regulating spike patterning in vivo. For example, the increased firing variability that precedes bursting in OT neurons during lactation could be related to significant changes in synaptic activity. PMID:17332000

Trends in U.S. life expectancy gradients: the role of changing educational composition.

PubMed

Hendi, Arun S

2015-06-01

I examined age patterns and the role of shifting educational distributions in driving trends in educational gradients in life expectancy among non-Hispanic Whites between 1991 and 2005. Data were from the 1986-2004 National Health Interview Survey with mortality follow-up through 2006. Life expectancies were computed by sex, period and education. Age decompositions of life expectancy gradients and composition-adjusted life expectancies were computed to account for age patterns and shifting educational distributions. Life expectancy at age 25 among White men increased for all education groups, decreased among the least-educated White women and increased among White women with college degrees. Much of the decline in measured life expectancy for White women with less than a high school education comes from the 85+ age group. Educational gradients in life expectancy widened for White men and women. One-third of the gradient is due to ages below 50. Approximately 26% (0.7 years) and 87% (0.8 years) of the widening of the gradient in life expectancy between ages 25 and 85 for White women and men is attributable to shifting education distributions. Over half of the decline in temporary life expectancy among the least-educated White women is due to compositional change. Life expectancy has increased among White men for all education groups and has decreased among White women with less than a high school education, though not to the extent reported in previous studies. The fact that a large proportion of the change in education-specific life expectancy among women is due to the 85+ age group suggests changes in institutionalization may be affecting estimates. Much of the change in education-specific life expectancy and the growth in the educational gradient in life expectancy is due to the shifting distribution of individuals across education categories. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Technical Note: Higher-order statistical moments and a procedure that detects potentially anomalous years as two alternative methods describing alterations in continuous environmental data

Treesearch

I. Arismendi; S. L. Johnson; J. B. Dunham

2015-01-01

Statistics of central tendency and dispersion may not capture relevant or desired characteristics of the distribution of continuous phenomena and, thus, they may not adequately describe temporal patterns of change. Here, we present two methodological approaches that can help to identify temporal changes in environmental regimes. First, we use higher-order statistical...

Understanding the role of wildland fire, insects, and disease in predicting climate change effects on whitebark pine: Simulating vegetation, disturbance, and climate dynamics in a northern Rocky Mountain landscape

Treesearch

Robert Keane; Rachel Loehman

2010-01-01

Climate changes are projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions, or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. High-elevation landscapes have been shown to be...

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations.

PubMed

Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Liu, Saiyan; Meng, Erhao; Li, Pei

2017-07-19

Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.

Systematic Conservation Planning in the Face of Climate Change: Bet-Hedging on the Columbia Plateau

PubMed Central

Schloss, Carrie A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Larson, Eric R.; Papendick, Hilary L.; Case, Michael J.; Evans, Daniel M.; DeLap, Jack H.; Langdon, Jesse G. R.; Hall, Sonia A.; McRae, Brad H.

2011-01-01

Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts. PMID:22174897

Predicting impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity of Kalopanax septemlobus in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Wanmo; Minor, Emily S.; Lee, Dowon; Park, Chan-Ryul

2016-02-01

Understanding the drivers of habitat distribution patterns and assessing habitat connectivity are crucial for conservation in the face of climate change. In this study, we examined a sparsely distributed tree species, Kalopanax septemlobus (Araliaceae), which has been heavily disturbed by human use in temperate forests of South Korea. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling (MaxEnt) to identify the climatic and topographic factors driving the distribution of the species. Then, we constructed habitat models under current and projected climate conditions for the year 2050 and evaluated changes in the extent and connectivity of the K. septemlobus habitat. Annual mean temperature and terrain slope were the two most important predictors of species distribution. Our models predicted the range shift of K. septemlobus toward higher elevations under medium-low and high emissions scenarios for 2050, with dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (51% and 85%, respectively). In addition, connectivity analysis indicated that climate change is expected to reduce future levels of habitat connectivity. Even under the Representative Construction Pathway (RCP) 4.5 medium-low warming scenario, the projected climate conditions will decrease habitat connectivity by 78%. Overall, suitable habitats for K. septemlobus populations will likely become more isolated depending on the severity of global warming. The approach presented here can be used to efficiently assess species and habitat vulnerability to climate change.

Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America.

PubMed

La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel; Blancher, Peter J; Rodewald, Amanda D; Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Rosenberg, Kenneth V; Hochachka, Wesley M; Verburg, Peter H; Kelling, Steve

2017-12-01

Understanding the susceptibility of highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds to global change requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non-breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where habitat loss has been associated with population declines. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We estimate species' distributional dynamics across the annual cycle, which we use to determine how species are currently associated with public protected areas and projected changes in climate and land-use. The effects of global change on the non-breeding grounds is characterized by decreasing precipitation, especially during the summer, and the conversion of forest to cropland, grassland, or peri-urban. The effects of global change on the breeding grounds are characterized by increasing winter precipitation, higher temperatures, and the conversion of forest to peri-urban. During spring and autumn migration, species are projected to encounter higher temperatures, forests that have been converted to peri-urban, and increased precipitation during spring migration. Based on current distributional dynamics, susceptibility to global change is characterized by the loss of forested habitats on the non-breeding grounds, warming temperatures during migration and on the breeding grounds, and declining summer rainfall on the non-breeding grounds. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent on the non-breeding grounds, suggesting that management opportunities currently exist to mitigate near-term non-breeding habitat losses. These efforts would affect more individuals of more species during a longer period of the annual cycle, which may create additional opportunities for species to respond to changes in habitat or phenology that are likely to develop under climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial Distribution Patterns in the Very Rare and Species-Rich Picea chihuahuana Tree Community (Mexico).

PubMed

Wehenkel, Christian; Brazão-Protázio, João Marcelo; Carrillo-Parra, Artemio; Martínez-Guerrero, José Hugo; Crecente-Campo, Felipe

2015-01-01

The very rare Mexican Picea chihuahuana tree community covers an area of no more than 300 ha in the Sierra Madre Occidental. This special tree community has been the subject of several studies aimed at learning more about the genetic structure and ecology of the species and the potential effects of climate change. The spatial distribution of trees is a result of many ecological processes and can affect the degree of competition between neighbouring trees, tree density, variability in size and distribution, regeneration, survival, growth, mortality, crown formation and the biological diversity within forest communities. Numerous scale-dependent measures have been established in order to describe spatial forest structure. The overall aim of most of these studies has been to obtain data to help design preservation and conservation strategies. In this study, we examined the spatial distribution pattern of trees in the P. chihuahuana tree community in 12 localities, in relation to i) tree stand density, ii) diameter distribution (vertical structure), iii) tree species diversity, iv) geographical latitude and v) tree dominance at a fine scale (in 0.25 ha plots), with the aim of obtaining a better understanding of the complex ecosystem processes and biological diversity. Because of the strongly mixed nature of this tree community, which often produces low population densities of each tree species and random tree fall gaps caused by tree death, we expect aggregated patterns in individual Picea chihuahuana trees and in the P. chihuahuana tree community, repulsive Picea patterns to other tree species and repulsive patterns of young to adult trees. Each location was represented by one plot of 50 x 50 m (0.25 ha) established in the centre of the tree community. The findings demonstrate that the hypothesis of aggregated tree pattern is not applicable to the mean pattern measured by Clark-Evans index, Uniform Angle index and Mean Directional index of the uneven-aged P. chihuahuana trees and P. chihuahuana tree community and but to specific spatial scales measured by the univariate L-function. The spatial distribution pattern of P. chihuahuana trees was found to be independent of patches of other tree species measured by the bivariate L-function. The spatial distribution was not significantly related to tree density, diameter distribution or tree species diversity. The index of Clark and Evans decreased significantly from the southern to northern plots containing all tree species. Self-thinning due to intra and inter-specific competition-induced mortality is probably the main cause of the decrease in aggregation intensity during the course of population development in this tree community. We recommend the use of larger sampling plots (> 0.25 ha) in uneven-aged and species-rich forest ecosystems to detect less obvious, but important, relationships between spatial tree pattern and functioning and diversity in these forests.

Spatial Distribution Patterns in the Very Rare and Species-Rich Picea chihuahuana Tree Community (Mexico)

PubMed Central

Wehenkel, Christian; Brazão-Protázio, João Marcelo; Carrillo-Parra, Artemio; Martínez-Guerrero, José Hugo; Crecente-Campo, Felipe

2015-01-01

The very rare Mexican Picea chihuahuana tree community covers an area of no more than 300 ha in the Sierra Madre Occidental. This special tree community has been the subject of several studies aimed at learning more about the genetic structure and ecology of the species and the potential effects of climate change. The spatial distribution of trees is a result of many ecological processes and can affect the degree of competition between neighbouring trees, tree density, variability in size and distribution, regeneration, survival, growth, mortality, crown formation and the biological diversity within forest communities. Numerous scale-dependent measures have been established in order to describe spatial forest structure. The overall aim of most of these studies has been to obtain data to help design preservation and conservation strategies. In this study, we examined the spatial distribution pattern of trees in the P. chihuahuana tree community in 12 localities, in relation to i) tree stand density, ii) diameter distribution (vertical structure), iii) tree species diversity, iv) geographical latitude and v) tree dominance at a fine scale (in 0.25 ha plots), with the aim of obtaining a better understanding of the complex ecosystem processes and biological diversity. Because of the strongly mixed nature of this tree community, which often produces low population densities of each tree species and random tree fall gaps caused by tree death, we expect aggregated patterns in individual Picea chihuahuana trees and in the P. chihuahuana tree community, repulsive Picea patterns to other tree species and repulsive patterns of young to adult trees. Each location was represented by one plot of 50 x 50 m (0.25 ha) established in the centre of the tree community. The findings demonstrate that the hypothesis of aggregated tree pattern is not applicable to the mean pattern measured by Clark-Evans index, Uniform Angle index and Mean Directional index of the uneven-aged P. chihuahuana trees and P. chihuahuana tree community and but to specific spatial scales measured by the univariate L-function. The spatial distribution pattern of P. chihuahuana trees was found to be independent of patches of other tree species measured by the bivariate L-function. The spatial distribution was not significantly related to tree density, diameter distribution or tree species diversity. The index of Clark and Evans decreased significantly from the southern to northern plots containing all tree species. Self-thinning due to intra and inter-specific competition-induced mortality is probably the main cause of the decrease in aggregation intensity during the course of population development in this tree community. We recommend the use of larger sampling plots (> 0.25 ha) in uneven-aged and species-rich forest ecosystems to detect less obvious, but important, relationships between spatial tree pattern and functioning and diversity in these forests. PMID:26496189

Performance Simulation of a Flat-Plate Thermoelectric Module Consisting of Square Truncated Pyramid Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, Sae; Suzuki, Ryosuke O.

2017-05-01

The performance of a flat-plate thermoelectric (TE) module consisting of square truncated pyramid elements is simulated using commercial software and original TE programs. Assuming that the temperatures of both the hot and cold surfaces are constant, the performance can be varied by changing the element shape and element alignment pattern. When the angle between the edge and the base is 85° and the small square surfaces of all n-type element faces are connected to the low-temperature surface, the efficiency becomes the largest among all the 17 examined shapes and patterns. By changing the shape to match the temperature distribution, the performance of the TE module is maximized.

Quantitative characterization of the regressive ecological succession by fractal analysis of plant spatial patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alados, C.L.; Pueyo, Y.; Giner, M.L.; Navarro, T.; Escos, J.; Barroso, F.; Cabezudo, B.; Emlen, J.M.

2003-01-01

We studied the effect of grazing on the degree of regression of successional vegetation dynamic in a semi-arid Mediterranean matorral. We quantified the spatial distribution patterns of the vegetation by fractal analyses, using the fractal information dimension and spatial autocorrelation measured by detrended fluctuation analyses (DFA). It is the first time that fractal analysis of plant spatial patterns has been used to characterize the regressive ecological succession. Plant spatial patterns were compared over a long-term grazing gradient (low, medium and heavy grazing pressure) and on ungrazed sites for two different plant communities: A middle dense matorral of Chamaerops and Periploca at Sabinar-Romeral and a middle dense matorral of Chamaerops, Rhamnus and Ulex at Requena-Montano. The two communities differed also in the microclimatic characteristics (sea oriented at the Sabinar-Romeral site and inland oriented at the Requena-Montano site). The information fractal dimension increased as we moved from a middle dense matorral to discontinuous and scattered matorral and, finally to the late regressive succession, at Stipa steppe stage. At this stage a drastic change in the fractal dimension revealed a change in the vegetation structure, accurately indicating end successional vegetation stages. Long-term correlation analysis (DFA) revealed that an increase in grazing pressure leads to unpredictability (randomness) in species distributions, a reduction in diversity, and an increase in cover of the regressive successional species, e.g. Stipa tenacissima L. These comparisons provide a quantitative characterization of the successional dynamic of plant spatial patterns in response to grazing perturbation gradient. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Size-dependent regulation of dorsal-ventral patterning in the early Drosophila embryo

PubMed Central

Garcia, Mayra; Nahmad, Marcos; Reeves, Gregory T.; Stathopoulos, Angelike

2013-01-01

How natural variation in embryo size affects patterning of the Drosophila embryo dorsal-ventral (DV) axis is not known. Here we examined quantitatively the relationship between nuclear distribution of the Dorsal transcription factor, boundary positions for several target genes, and DV axis length. Data were obtained from embryos of a wild-type background as well as from mutant lines inbred to size select embryos of smaller or larger sizes. Our data show that the width of the nuclear Dorsal gradient correlates with DV axis length. In turn, for some genes expressed along the DV axis, the boundary positions correlate closely with nuclear Dorsal levels and with DV axis length; while the expression pattern of others is relatively constant and independent of the width of the Dorsal gradient. In particular, the patterns of snail (sna) and ventral nervous-system defective (vnd) correlate with nuclear Dorsal levels and exhibit scaling to DV length; while the pattern of intermediate neuroblasts defective (ind) remains relatively constant with respect to changes in Dorsal and DV length. However, in mutants that exhibit an abnormal expansion of the Dorsal gradient which fails to scale to DV length, only sna follows the Dorsal distribution and exhibits overexpansion; in contrast, vnd and ind do not overexpand suggesting some additional mechanism acts to refine the dorsal boundaries of these two genes. Thus, our results argue against the idea that the Dorsal gradient works as a global system of relative coordinates along the DV axis and suggest that individual targets respond to changes in embryo size in a gene-specific manner. PMID:23800450

Predicted Shifts in Small Mammal Distributions and Biodiversity in the Altered Future Environment of Alaska: An Open Access Data and Machine Learning Perspective

PubMed Central

Baltensperger, A. P.; Huettmann, F.

2015-01-01

Climate change is acting to reallocate biomes, shift the distribution of species, and alter community assemblages in Alaska. Predictions regarding how these changes will affect the biodiversity and interspecific relationships of small mammals are necessary to pro-actively inform conservation planning. We used a set of online occurrence records and machine learning methods to create bioclimatic envelope models for 17 species of small mammals (rodents and shrews) across Alaska. Models formed the basis for sets of species-specific distribution maps for 2010 and were projected forward using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 scenario to predict distributions of the same species for 2100. We found that distributions of cold-climate, northern, and interior small mammal species experienced large decreases in area while shifting northward, upward in elevation, and inland across the state. In contrast, many southern and continental species expanded throughout Alaska, and also moved down-slope and toward the coast. Statewide community assemblages remained constant for 15 of the 17 species, but distributional shifts resulted in novel species assemblages in several regions. Overall biodiversity patterns were similar for both time frames, but followed general species distribution movement trends. Biodiversity losses occurred in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and Seward Peninsula while the Beaufort Coastal Plain and western Brooks Range experienced modest gains in species richness as distributions shifted to form novel assemblages. Quantitative species distribution and biodiversity change projections should help land managers to develop adaptive strategies for conserving dispersal corridors, small mammal biodiversity, and ecosystem functionality into the future. PMID:26207828

Experimental study of surface pattern effects on the propulsive performance and wake of a bio-inspired pitching panel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Justin; Kumar, Rajeev; Green, Melissa

2016-11-01

Force measurements and stereoscopic particle image velocimetry (PIV) were used to characterize the propulsive performance and wake structure of rigid, bio-inspired trapezoidal pitching panels. In the literature, it has been demonstrated that quantities such as thrust coefficient and propulsive efficiency are affected by changes in the surface characteristics of a pitching panel or foil. More specifically, the variation of surface pattern produces significant changes in wake structure and dynamics, especially in the distribution of vorticity in the wake. Force measurements and PIV data were collected for multiple surface patterns chosen to mimic fish surface morphology over a Strouhal number range of 0.17 to 0.56. Performance quantities are compared with the three-dimensional vortex wake structure for both the patterned and smooth panels to determine the nature and magnitude of surface pattern effects in terms of thrust produced, drag reduced, and wake vortices reshaped and reorganized. This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research under ONR Award No. N00014-14-1-0418.

Probing Atomic Dynamics and Structures Using Optical Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmittberger, Bonnie L.; Gauthier, Daniel J.

2015-05-01

Pattern formation is a widely studied phenomenon that can provide fundamental insights into nonlinear systems. Emergent patterns in cold atoms are of particular interest in condensed matter physics and quantum information science because one can relate optical patterns to spatial structures in the atoms. In our experimental system, we study multimode optical patterns generated from a sample of cold, thermal atoms. We observe this nonlinear optical phenomenon at record low input powers due to the highly nonlinear nature of the spatial bunching of atoms in an optical lattice. We present a detailed study of the dynamics of these bunched atoms during optical pattern formation. We show how small changes in the atomic density distribution affect the symmetry of the generated patterns as well as the nature of the nonlinearity that describes the light-atom interaction. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the National Science Foundation through Grant #PHY-1206040.

The application of a sparse, distributed memory to the detection, identification and manipulation of physical objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanerva, P.

1986-01-01

To determine the relation of the sparse, distributed memory to other architectures, a broad review of the literature was made. The memory is called a pattern memory because they work with large patterns of features (high-dimensional vectors). A pattern is stored in a pattern memory by distributing it over a large number of storage elements and by superimposing it over other stored patterns. A pattern is retrieved by mathematical or statistical reconstruction from the distributed elements. Three pattern memories are discussed.

Broad-scale sampling of primary freshwater fish populations reveals the role of intrinsic traits, inter-basin connectivity, drainage area and latitude on shaping contemporary patterns of genetic diversity

PubMed Central

Robalo, Joana I.; Pereira, Ana M.; Branco, Paulo; Santos, José Maria; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Sousa, Mónica; Doadrio, Ignacio

2016-01-01

Background. Worldwide predictions suggest that up to 75% of the freshwater fish species occurring in rivers with reduced discharge could be extinct by 2070 due to the combined effect of climate change and water abstraction. The Mediterranean region is considered to be a hotspot of freshwater fish diversity but also one of the regions where the effects of climate change will be more severe. Iberian cyprinids are currently highly endangered, with over 68% of the species raising some level of conservation concern. Methods. During the FISHATLAS project, the Portuguese hydrographical network was extensively covered (all the 34 river basins and 47 sub-basins) in order to contribute with valuable data on the genetic diversity distribution patterns of native cyprinid species. A total of 188 populations belonging to 16 cyprinid species of Squalius, Luciobarbus, Achondrostoma, Iberochondrostoma, Anaecypris and Pseudochondrostoma were characterized, for a total of 3,678 cytochrome b gene sequences. Results. When the genetic diversity of these populations was mapped, it highlighted differences among populations from the same species and between species with identical distribution areas. Factors shaping the contemporary patterns of genetic diversity were explored and the results revealed the role of latitude, inter-basin connectivity, migratory behaviour, species maximum size, species range and other species intrinsic traits in determining the genetic diversity of sampled populations. Contrastingly, drainage area and hydrological regime (permanent vs. temporary) seem to have no significant effect on genetic diversity. Species intrinsic traits, maximum size attained, inter-basin connectivity and latitude explained over 30% of the haplotype diversity variance and, generally, the levels of diversity were significantly higher for smaller sized species, from connected and southerly river basins. Discussion. Targeting multiple co-distributed species of primary freshwater fish allowed us to assess the relative role of historical versus contemporary factors affecting genetic diversity. Since different patterns were detected for species with identical distribution areas we postulate that contemporary determinants of genetic diversity (species’ intrinsic traits and landscape features) must have played a more significant role than historical factors. Implications for conservation in a context of climate change and highly disturbed habitats are detailed, namely the need to focus management and conservation actions on intraspecific genetic data and to frequently conduct combined genetic and demographic surveys. PMID:26966653

Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK).

PubMed

Kosanic, Aleksandra; Anderson, Karen; Harrison, Stephan; Turkington, Thea; Bennie, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species' geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies.

Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK)

PubMed Central

Kosanic, Aleksandra; Anderson, Karen; Harrison, Stephan; Turkington, Thea; Bennie, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species’ geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies. PMID:29401494

Species interactions and response time to climate change: ice-cover and terrestrial run-off shaping Arctic char and brown trout competitive asymmetries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finstad, A. G.; Palm Helland, I.; Jonsson, B.; Forseth, T.; Foldvik, A.; Hessen, D. O.; Hendrichsen, D. K.; Berg, O. K.; Ulvan, E.; Ugedal, O.

2011-12-01

There has been a growing recognition that single species responses to climate change often mainly are driven by interaction with other organisms and single species studies therefore not are sufficient to recognize and project ecological climate change impacts. Here, we study how performance, relative abundance and the distribution of two common Arctic and sub-Arctic freshwater fishes (brown trout and Arctic char) are driven by competitive interactions. The interactions are modified both by direct climatic effects on temperature and ice-cover, and indirectly through climate forcing of terrestrial vegetation pattern and associated carbon and nutrient run-off. We first use laboratory studies to show that Arctic char, which is the world's most northernmost distributed freshwater fish, outperform trout under low light levels and also have comparable higher growth efficiency. Corresponding to this, a combination of time series and time-for-space analyses show that ice-cover duration and carbon and nutrient load mediated by catchment vegetation properties strongly affected the outcome of the competition and likely drive the species distribution pattern through competitive exclusion. In brief, while shorter ice-cover period and decreased carbon load favored brown trout, increased ice-cover period and increased carbon load favored Arctic char. Length of ice-covered period and export of allochthonous material from catchments are major, but contrasting, climatic drivers of competitive interaction between these two freshwater lake top-predators. While projected climate change lead to decreased ice-cover, corresponding increase in forest and shrub cover amplify carbon and nutrient run-off. Although a likely outcome of future Arctic and sub-arctic climate scenarios are retractions of the Arctic char distribution area caused by competitive exclusion, the main drivers will act on different time scales. While ice-cover will change instantaneously with increasing temperature, changes in catchment vegetation, such as forest-line or shrub advancement affecting carbon and nutrient transport into lakes, act on considerably longer time-scales. This study therefore emphasizes the recurring challenge for ecological climate change studies related to species interactions within and across ecosystem compartments and the response time of ecosystems.

[Geostatistics analyzing to cause of formation of circle distribution of plant communities in Horqin Sandy Land].

PubMed

He, Xingdong; Gao, Yubao; Zhao, Wenzhi; Cong, Zili

2004-09-01

Investigation results in the present study showed that plant communities took typical concentric circles distribution patterns along habitat gradient from top, slope to interdune on a few large fixed dunes in middle part of Korqin Sandy Land. In order to explain this phenomenon, analysis of water content and its spatial heterogeneity in sand layers on different locations of dunes was conducted. In these dunes, water contents in sand layers of the tops were lower than those of the slopes; both of them were lower than those of the interdunes. According to the results of geostatistics analysis, whether shifting dune or fixed dune, spatial heterogeneity of water contents in sand layers took on regular changes, such as ratios between nugget and sill and ranges reduced gradually, fractal dimension increased gradually, the regular changes of these parameters indicated that random spatial heterogeneity reduced gradually, and autocorrelation spatial heterogeneity increased gradually from the top, the slope to the interdune. The regular changes of water contents in sand layers and their spatial heterogeneity of different locations of the dunes, thus, might be an important cause resulted in the formation of the concentric circles patterns of the plant communities on these fixed dunes.

Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin A.; Taylor, Nick G. H.; Hartnell, Rachel; Siitonen, Anja; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2013-01-01

There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078°Cyr-1 (6.3-7.8°C per century; refs , ), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.

Comparative phylogeography of eight herbs and lianas (Marantaceae) in central African rainforests.

PubMed

Ley, Alexandra C; Dauby, Gilles; Köhler, Julia; Wypior, Catherina; Röser, Martin; Hardy, Olivier J

2014-01-01

Vegetation history in tropical Africa is still to date hardly known and the drivers of population differentiation and speciation processes are little documented. It has often been postulated that population fragmentations following climate changes have played a key role in shaping the geographic distribution patterns of genetic diversity and in driving speciation. Here we analyzed phylogeographic patterns (chloroplast-DNA sequences) within and between eight (sister) species of widespread rainforest herbs and lianas from four genera of Marantaceae (Halopegia, Haumania, Marantochloa, Megaphrynium), searching for concordant patterns across species and concordance with the Pleistocene refuge hypothesis. Using 1146 plastid DNA sequences sampled across African tropical lowland rainforest, particularly in the Lower Guinean (LG) phytogeographic region, we analyzed intra- and interspecific patterns of genetic diversity, endemism and distinctiveness. Intraspecific patterns of haplotype diversity were concordant among most species as well as with the species-level diversity pattern of Marantaceae. Highest values were found in the hilly areas of Cameroon and Gabon. However, the spatial distribution of endemic haplotypes, an indicator for refuge areas in general, was not congruent across species. Each proposed refuge exhibited high values of endemism for one or a few species indicating their potential role as area of retraction for the respective species only. Thus, evolutionary histories seem to be diverse across species. In fact, areas of high diversity might have been both refuge and/or crossing zone of recolonization routes i.e., secondary contact zone. We hypothesize that retraction of species into one or the other refuge happened by chance depending on the species' distribution range at the time of climate deterioration. The idiosyncratic patterns found in Marantaceae species are similar to those found among tropical tree species, especially in southern LG.

Comparative phylogeography of eight herbs and lianas (Marantaceae) in central African rainforests

PubMed Central

Ley, Alexandra C.; Dauby, Gilles; Köhler, Julia; Wypior, Catherina; Röser, Martin; Hardy, Olivier J.

2014-01-01

Vegetation history in tropical Africa is still to date hardly known and the drivers of population differentiation and speciation processes are little documented. It has often been postulated that population fragmentations following climate changes have played a key role in shaping the geographic distribution patterns of genetic diversity and in driving speciation. Here we analyzed phylogeographic patterns (chloroplast-DNA sequences) within and between eight (sister) species of widespread rainforest herbs and lianas from four genera of Marantaceae (Halopegia, Haumania, Marantochloa, Megaphrynium), searching for concordant patterns across species and concordance with the Pleistocene refuge hypothesis. Using 1146 plastid DNA sequences sampled across African tropical lowland rainforest, particularly in the Lower Guinean (LG) phytogeographic region, we analyzed intra- and interspecific patterns of genetic diversity, endemism and distinctiveness. Intraspecific patterns of haplotype diversity were concordant among most species as well as with the species-level diversity pattern of Marantaceae. Highest values were found in the hilly areas of Cameroon and Gabon. However, the spatial distribution of endemic haplotypes, an indicator for refuge areas in general, was not congruent across species. Each proposed refuge exhibited high values of endemism for one or a few species indicating their potential role as area of retraction for the respective species only. Thus, evolutionary histories seem to be diverse across species. In fact, areas of high diversity might have been both refuge and/or crossing zone of recolonization routes i.e., secondary contact zone. We hypothesize that retraction of species into one or the other refuge happened by chance depending on the species' distribution range at the time of climate deterioration. The idiosyncratic patterns found in Marantaceae species are similar to those found among tropical tree species, especially in southern LG. PMID:25477901

Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

2010-12-01

Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

The combined effects of exogenous and endogenous variability on the spatial distribution of ant communities in a forested ecosystem (Hymenoptera: Formicidae).

PubMed

Yitbarek, Senay; Vandermeer, John H; Allen, David

2011-10-01

Spatial patterns observed in ecosystems have traditionally been attributed to exogenous processes. Recently, ecologists have found that endogenous processes also have the potential to create spatial patterns. Yet, relatively few studies have attempted to examine the combined effects of exogenous and endogenous processes on the distribution of organisms across spatial and temporal scales. Here we aim to do this, by investigating whether spatial patterns of under-story tree species at a large spatial scale (18 ha) influences the spatial patterns of ground foraging ant species at a much smaller spatial scale (20 m by 20 m). At the regional scale, exogenous processes (under-story tree community) had a strong effect on the spatial patterns in the ground-foraging ant community. We found significantly more Camponotus noveboracensis, Formica subsericae, and Lasius alienus species in black cherry (Prunis serotine Ehrh.) habitats. In witch-hazel (Hamamelis virginiana L.) habitats, we similarly found significantly more Myrmica americana, Formica fusca, and Formica subsericae. At smaller spatial scales, we observed the emergence of mosaic ant patches changing rapidly in space and time. Our study reveals that spatial patterns are the result of both exogenous and endogenous forces, operating at distinct scales.

Higher-order statistical moments and a procedure that detects potentially anomalous years as two alternative methods describing alterations in continuous environmental data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.

2015-01-01

Statistics of central tendency and dispersion may not capture relevant or desired characteristics of the distribution of continuous phenomena and, thus, they may not adequately describe temporal patterns of change. Here, we present two methodological approaches that can help to identify temporal changes in environmental regimes. First, we use higher-order statistical moments (skewness and kurtosis) to examine potential changes of empirical distributions at decadal extents. Second, we adapt a statistical procedure combining a non-metric multidimensional scaling technique and higher density region plots to detect potentially anomalous years. We illustrate the use of these approaches by examining long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-influenced streams. In particular, we contrast predictions about thermal regime responses to changing climates and human-related water uses. Using these methods, we effectively diagnose years with unusual thermal variability and patterns in variability through time, as well as spatial variability linked to regional and local factors that influence stream temperature. Our findings highlight the complexity of responses of thermal regimes of streams and reveal their differential vulnerability to climate warming and human-related water uses. The two approaches presented here can be applied with a variety of other continuous phenomena to address historical changes, extreme events, and their associated ecological responses.

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use and land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Li, Guiying; Moran, Emilio; Hetrick, Scott

2013-01-01

This paper provides a comparative analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) changes among three study areas with different biophysical environments in the Brazilian Amazon at multiple scales, from per-pixel, polygon, census sector, to study area. Landsat images acquired in the years of 1990/1991, 1999/2000, and 2008/2010 were used to examine LULC change trajectories with the post-classification comparison approach. A classification system composed of six classes – forest, savanna, other-vegetation (secondary succession and plantations), agro-pasture, impervious surface, and water, was designed for this study. A hierarchical-based classification method was used to classify Landsat images into thematic maps. This research shows different spatiotemporal change patterns, composition and rates among the three study areas and indicates the importance of analyzing LULC change at multiple scales. The LULC change analysis over time for entire study areas provides an overall picture of change trends, but detailed change trajectories and their spatial distributions can be better examined at a per-pixel scale. The LULC change at the polygon scale provides the information of the changes in patch sizes over time, while the LULC change at census sector scale gives new insights on how human-induced activities (e.g., urban expansion, roads, and land use history) affect LULC change patterns and rates. This research indicates the necessity to implement change detection at multiple scales for better understanding the mechanisms of LULC change patterns and rates. PMID:24127130

Event segmentation and seven types of narrative discontinuity in popular movies.

PubMed

Cutting, James E

2014-06-01

Using a sample of 24 movies I investigate narrative shifts in location, characters, and time frame that do and do not align with viewer segmentations of events (scenes and subscenes) in popular movies. Taken independently these dimensions create eight categories, seven of change and one of nonchange. Data show that the more dimensions that are changed the more viewers agree on their segmentations, although the nonadditive variations across the seven change types are large and systematic. Dissolves aid segmentation but over the last 70 years they have been used less and less by filmmakers, except for two infrequent shift types. Locations and characters are strongly yoked, jointly accounting for most narrative shifts. There are also interactions of shift types over the 70-year span and across genres, as well as differences that affect the scale of the establishing shot in a new scene. In addition, several aspects of the narratives of individual movies affect the distributions of shift types. Together these results suggest that there are at least four different signatures of narrative shifts to be found in popular movies - general patterns across time, patterns of historical change, genre-specific patterns, and film-specific patterns. Copyright © 2014 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oasis dynamics change and its influence on landscape pattern on Jinta oasis in arid China from 1963a to 2010a: Integration of multi-source satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yuchu; Gong, Jie; Sun, Peng; Gou, Xiaohua

2014-12-01

As one of the vital research highlights of global land use and cover change, oasis change and its interaction with landscape pattern have been regarded as an important content of regional environmental change research in arid areas. Jinta oasis, a typical agricultural oasis characterized by its dramatic exploitation and use of water and land resources in Hexi corridor, northwest arid region in China, was selected as a case to study the spatiotemporal oasis change and its effects on oasis landscape pattern. Based on integration of Keyhole satellite photographs, KATE-200 photographs, Landsat MSS, TM and ETM+ images, we evaluated and analyzed the status, trend and spatial pattern change of Jinta oasis and the characteristics of landscape pattern change by a set of mathematical models and combined this information with landscape metrics and community surveys. During the period of 1963a-2010a, Jinta oasis expanded gradually with an area increase of 219.15 km2, and the conversion between oasis and desert was frequent with a state of “imbalance-balance-extreme imbalance conditions”. Moreover, most of the changes took place in the ecotone between oasis and desert and the interior of oasis due to the reclamation of abandoned land, such as Yangjingziwan and Xiba townships. Furthermore, the area, size and spatial distribution of oasis were influenced by human activities and resulted in fundamental changes of oasis landscape pattern. The fractal characteristics, dispersion degree and fragmentation of Jinta oasis decreased and the oasis landscape tended to be simple and uniform. Oasis change trajectories and its landscape pattern were mainly influenced by water resource utilization, policies (especially land policies), demographic factors, technological advancements, as well as regional economic development. We found that time series analysis of multi-source remote sensing images and the application of an oasis change model provided a useful approach to monitor oasis change over a long-term period in arid area. It is recommended that the government and farmers should pay more attention to the fragility of the natural system and the government should enhance the leading role of environmental considerations in the development process of oasis change, particularly with respect to the utilization of the limited water and land resources in arid China.

Temporal dynamics influenced by global change: bee community phenology in urban, agricultural, and natural landscapes.

PubMed

Leong, Misha; Ponisio, Lauren C; Kremen, Claire; Thorp, Robbin W; Roderick, George K

2016-03-01

Urbanization and agricultural intensification of landscapes are important drivers of global change, which in turn have direct impacts on local ecological communities leading to shifts in species distributions and interactions. Here, we illustrate how human-altered landscapes, with novel ornamental and crop plant communities, result not only in changes to local community diversity of floral-dependent species, but also in shifts in seasonal abundance of bee pollinators. Three years of data on the spatio-temporal distributions of 91 bee species show that seasonal patterns of abundance and species richness in human-altered landscapes varied significantly less compared to natural habitats in which floral resources are relatively scarce in the dry summer months. These findings demonstrate that anthropogenic environmental changes in urban and agricultural systems, here mediated through changes in plant resources and water inputs, can alter the temporal dynamics of pollinators that depend on them. Changes in phenology of interactions can be an important, though frequently overlooked, mechanism of global change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological studies of Eastern Australian fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in their endemic habitat : II. The spatial pattern of abundance.

PubMed

Zalucki, M P; Drew, R A I; Hooper, G H S

1984-10-01

11 fruit fly species captured at 47 sites in a natural forest area at Cooloola (south-east Queensland) revealed specific patterns of spatial abundance. Although all species were collected throughout the study area, D. bryoniae, D. mayi, D. neohumeralis and D. tryoni were more prevalent (average number caught per trap) in the open Eucalypt forest than the rainforest, whereas C. aequalis, D. absonifacies and D. endiandrae were more prevalent in the rainforest. D. cacuminatus, D. choristus, D. quadratus and D. signatifrons were equally prevalent throughout both forest types. Fly numbers were not distributed randomly throughout the trap sites. The clumped dispersion patterns seemed to be species specific as assessed and summarised by Taylor's Power Law. The exponent (b) relating mean spatial abundance to its variance ranged from 1.6-5.11 for the 11 species captured. Changing patterns of trap catches from one sampling period to another were analysed using correlograms for the 6 most abundant species (D. tryoni, D. neohumeralis, D. endiandrae, C. aequalis, D. cacuminatus and D. mayi). These revealed changing patterns of relative spatial abundance which can be related, in part, to changing population abundance levels. The various spatial patterns recognised are related to each species movement, breeding and feeding behaviour. It is proposed that flies migrate into the rainforest area from distant locations and that the rainforest habitat is an important adult feeding site.

Inherent and environmental patterns in biomass allocation and allometry among higher plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poorter, Hendrik

2017-04-01

It is well-known that plants may adjust the distribution of biomass over leaves, stems and roots depending on environmental conditions. It is also clear that size is an important factor as well. However, good quantitative insights are lacking. In this talk I analyse biomass allocation patterns to leaves, stems and roots of herbs and woody species. A database was compiled with 11.000 records of leaf, stem and root biomass for 1200 species. First, I'll derive general dose-response curves that describe the relationship between biomass allocation and the 12 most important a-biotic environmental factors and compare them with the changes in leaf, stem and root morphology. Second, I'll focus on allometric relationships between the various organs and test to what extent they comply with models like that for Metabolic Scaling Theory, where the slope of the log-log relationship between leaf and root biomass is expected to have a value of ¾. Third, I analyse how leaf, stem and root mass fractions change as a function of total plant size. This offers a great opportunity to test to what extent there are systematic differences in allocation patterns related to phylogeny (e.g. Gymnosperms vs. Angiosperms, grasses vs. herbaceous dicots) and functional group (e.g. deciduous vs. evergreens). Poorter et al. (2012) Biomass allocation to leaves, stems and roots: meta-analyses of interspecific variation and environmental control. New Phytol. 193: 30-50. Poorter & Sack (2012) Pitfalls and possibilities in the analysis of biomass allocation patterns in plants. Front. Plant Sci. 3: 259. Poorter et al. (2015) How does biomass distribution change with size and differ among species? New Phytol. 208: 736-749

Occupancy patterns of mammals and lentic amphibians in the Elwha River riparian zone before dam removal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt J.; Chelgren, Nathan; Sager-Fradkin, K.A.; Happe, P.J.; Adams, Michael J.

2015-01-01

The downstream transport of sediments and organics and upstream migration of anadromous fishes are key ecological processes in unregulated riverine ecosystems of the North Pacific coast, but their influence on wildlife habitats and populations is poorly documented. Removal of two large hydroelectric dams in Washington’s Elwha Valley provides an unprecedented opportunity to study long-term responses of wildlife populations to dam removal and restoration of these key ecological processes. We compared pre-dam removal patterns in the relative abundance and occupancy of mesocarnivores, small mammals and lentic amphibians of the Elwha River riparian zone above, between and below the dams. Occupancy of riparian habitats by three mesocarnivore species diminished upriver but did not appear to be closely linked with the absence of salmon in the upper river. Although the importance of salmon in the lower river cannot be discounted, other gradients in food resources also likely contributed to observed distribution patterns of mesocarnivores. Abundance and occupancy patterns within congeneric pairs of new world mice (Peromyscus spp.) and shrews (Sorex spp.) indicated that closely related species were negatively associated with each other and responded to habitat gradients in the riparian zone. The availability of lentic habitats of amphibians was highly variable, and occupancy was low as a result of rapidly changing flows during the larval development period. We speculate that long-term changes in habitat conditions and salmon availability following dam removal will elicit long-term changes in distribution of mesocarnivores, small mammals and amphibians. Long-term monitoring will enhance understanding of the role of fish and restored ecosystem processes on wildlife communities along salmon-bearing rivers in the region.

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities.

PubMed

Frelat, Romain; Lindegren, Martin; Denker, Tim Spaanheden; Floeter, Jens; Fock, Heino O; Sguotti, Camilla; Stäbler, Moritz; Otto, Saskia A; Möllmann, Christian

2017-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs.

Biodiversity, molecular ecology and phylogeography of marine sponges: patterns, implications and outlooks.

PubMed

Wörheide, Gert; Solé-Cava, Antonio M; Hooper, John N A

2005-04-01

Marine sponges are an ecologically important and highly diverse component of marine benthic communities, found in all the world's oceans, at all depths. Although their commercial potential and evolutionary importance is increasingly recognized, many pivotal aspects of their basic biology remain enigmatic. Knowledge of historical biogeographic affinities and biodiversity patterns is rudimentary, and there are still few data about genetic variation among sponge populations and spatial patterns of this variation. Biodiversity analyses of tropical Australasian sponges revealed spatial trends not universally reflected in the distributions of other marine phyla within the Indo-West Pacific region. At smaller spatial scales sponges frequently form heterogeneous, spatially patchy assemblages, with some empirical evidence suggesting that environmental variables such as light and/or turbidity strongly contribute to local distributions. There are no apparent latitudinal diversity gradients at larger spatial scales but stochastic processes, such as changing current patterns, the presence or absence of major carbonate platforms and historical biogeography, may determine modern day distributions. Studies on Caribbean oceanic reefs have revealed similar patterns, only weakly correlated with environmental factors. However, several questions remain where molecular approaches promise great potential, e.g., concerning connectivity and biogeographic relationships. Studies to date have helped to reveal that sponge populations are genetically highly structured and that historical processes might play an important role in determining such structure. Increasingly sophisticated molecular tools are now being applied, with results contributing significantly to a better understanding of poriferan microevolutionary processes and molecular ecology.

Assessing the long-term effects of land use changes on runoff patterns and food production in a large lake watershed with policy implications.

PubMed

Sun, Zhandong; Lotz, Tom; Chang, Ni-Bin

2017-12-15

Effects of land use development on runoff patterns are salient at a hydrological response unit scale. However, quantitative analysis at the watershed scale is still a challenge due to the complex spatial heterogeneity of the upstream and downstream hydrological relationships and the inherent structure of drainage systems. This study aims to use the well-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the response of hydrological processes under different land use scenarios in a large lake watershed (Lake Dongting) in the middle Yangtze River basin in China. Based on possible land use changes, scale-dependent land use scenarios were developed and parameters embedded in SWAT were calibrated and validated for hydrological systems analysis. This approach leads to the simulation of the land use change impacts on the hydrological cycle. Results indicated that evapotranspiration, surface runoff, groundwater flow, and water yield were affected by the land use change scenarios in different magnitudes. Overall, changes of land use and land cover have significant impacts on runoff patterns at the watershed scale in terms of both the total water yield (i.e., groundwater flow, surface runoff, and interflow, minus transmission losses) and the spatial distribution of runoff. The changes in runoff distribution were resulted in opposite impacts within the two land use scenarios including forest and agriculture. Water yield has a decrease of 1.8 percent in the forest-prone landscape scenario and an increase of 4.2 percent in the agriculture-rich scenario during the simulated period. Surface runoff was the most affected component in the hydrological cycle. Whereas surface runoff as part of water yield has a decrease of 8.2 percent in the forest- prone landscape scenario, there is an increase of 8.6 percent in the agriculture-rich landscape scenario. Different runoff patterns associated with each land use scenario imply the potential effect on flood or drought mitigation policy. Based on the results, key areas were identified to show that hydrological extreme mitigation and flood control can be coordinated by some land use regulations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead.

PubMed

Greer, Amy; Ng, Victoria; Fisman, David

2008-03-11

Global climate change is inevitable--the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a buildup of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth's climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes and hurricanes). Although these events may have direct consequences for health (e.g., injuries and displacement of populations due to thermal stress), they are also likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs (e.g., endemic fungal diseases). Changes in weather patterns and ecosystems, and health consequences of climate change will probably be most severe in far northern regions (e.g., the Arctic). We provide an overview of the expected nature and direction of such changes, which pose current and future challenges to health care providers and public health agencies.

Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead

PubMed Central

Greer, Amy; Ng, Victoria; Fisman, David

2008-01-01

Global climate change is inevitable — the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a buildup of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth's climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes and hurricanes). Although these events may have direct consequences for health (e.g., injuries and displacement of populations due to thermal stress), they are also likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs (e.g., endemic fungal diseases). Changes in weather patterns and ecosystems, and health consequences of climate change will probably be most severe in far northern regions (e.g., the Arctic). We provide an overview of the expected nature and direction of such changes, which pose current and future challenges to health care providers and public health agencies. PMID:18332386

Optimization of pressure gauge locations for water distribution systems using entropy theory.

PubMed

Yoo, Do Guen; Chang, Dong Eil; Jun, Hwandon; Kim, Joong Hoon

2012-12-01

It is essential to select the optimal pressure gauge location for effective management and maintenance of water distribution systems. This study proposes an objective and quantified standard for selecting the optimal pressure gauge location by defining the pressure change at other nodes as a result of demand change at a specific node using entropy theory. Two cases are considered in terms of demand change: that in which demand at all nodes shows peak load by using a peak factor and that comprising the demand change of the normal distribution whose average is the base demand. The actual pressure change pattern is determined by using the emitter function of EPANET to reflect the pressure that changes practically at each node. The optimal pressure gauge location is determined by prioritizing the node that processes the largest amount of information it gives to (giving entropy) and receives from (receiving entropy) the whole system according to the entropy standard. The suggested model is applied to one virtual and one real pipe network, and the optimal pressure gauge location combination is calculated by implementing the sensitivity analysis based on the study results. These analysis results support the following two conclusions. Firstly, the installation priority of the pressure gauge in water distribution networks can be determined with a more objective standard through the entropy theory. Secondly, the model can be used as an efficient decision-making guide for gauge installation in water distribution systems.

Views on System Governance. AASCU Studies, No. 2, 1980.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delaney, Harold; And Others

Four articles on changing governance patterns of state colleges and universities are presented. In "State Control vs. Campus Autonomy: A Struggle for Balance," Donald E. Walters discusses the distribution of power in Illinois'"system of systems" governance structure. In Illinois several multi-campus university systems coexist;…

Geographic patterns of genetic variation and population structure in Pinus aristata, Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Pinus aristata Engelm., Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine, has a narrow core geographic and elevational distribution, occurs in disjunct populations and is threatened by multiple stresses, including rapid climate change, white pine blister rust, and bark beetles. Knowledge of genetic diversity and pop...

Wildfire patterns and landscape changes in Mediterranean oak woodlands.

PubMed

Guiomar, N; Godinho, S; Fernandes, P M; Machado, R; Neves, N; Fernandes, J P

2015-12-01

Fire is infrequent in the oak woodlands of southern Portugal (montado) but large and severe fires affected these agro-forestry systems in 2003-2005. We hypothesised transition from forest to shrubland as a fire-driven process and investigated the links between fire incidence and montado change to other land cover types, particularly those related with the presence of pioneer communities (generically designed in this context as "transitions to early-successional communities"). We present a landscape-scale framework for assessing the probability of transition from montado to pioneer communities, considering three sets of explanatory variables: montado patterns in 1990 and prior changes from montado to early-successional communities (occurred between 1960 and 1990), fire patterns, and spatial factors. These three sets of factors captured 78.2% of the observed variability in the transitions from montado to pioneer vegetation. The contributions of fire patterns and spatial factors were high, respectively 60.6% and 43.4%, the influence of montado patterns and former changes in montado being lower (34.4%). The highest amount of explained variation in the occurrence of transitions from montado to early-successional communities was related to the pure effect of fire patterns (19.9%). Low spatial connectedness in montado landscape can increase vulnerability to changes, namely to pioneer vegetation, but the observed changes were mostly explained by fire characteristics and spatial factors. Among all metrics used to characterize fire patterns and extent, effective mesh size provided the best modelling results. Transitions from montado to pioneer communities are more likely in the presence of high values of the effective mesh size of total burned area. This cross-boundary metric is an indicator of the influence of large fires in the distribution of the identified transitions and, therefore, we conclude that the occurrence of large fires in montado increases its probability of transition to shrubland. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earthquake potential in California-Nevada implied by correlation of strain rate and seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeng, Yuehua; Petersen, Mark D.; Shen, Zheng-Kang

2018-01-01

Rock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased significantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate field was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation field evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.

Earthquake Potential in California-Nevada Implied by Correlation of Strain Rate and Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yuehua; Petersen, Mark D.; Shen, Zheng-Kang

2018-02-01

Rock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased significantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate field was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation field evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.

Phylogenetic patterns and phenotypic plasticity of molluscan sexual systems.

PubMed

Collin, Rachel

2013-10-01

Molluscs show a wide diversity of sexual systems and strategies. There are both gastropod and bivalve families that are each primarily dioecious, simultaneous hermaphrodites, or sequential hermaphrodites, and other families in which almost every sexual strategy occurs. The multiple evolutionary transitions of sexual systems within molluscs would allow comparative analyses of the associated ecological factors, but data on all but a few groups are too sparse to draw many solid conclusions. The phylogenetic distribution of sexual systems in the Mollusca shows that gastropods and bivalves demonstrate different patterns, possibly associated with the presence/absence of copulation. The distribution of change of sex suggests that, in gastropods, sequential hermaphrodites do not evolve from simultaneous hermaphrodites, and that sex reversal (flip-flopping) occurs in free-spawners but not in copulators. Three well-studied protandrous gastropod groups (calyptraeids, coralliophilids, and patellogastropods) show similar responses to environmental conditions and associations with conspecifics. They all have the following attributes: (1) they are sedentary, (2) they live in groups, patches, or aggregates, and (3) size at sex change varies among sites and among aggregates. In addition the available experimental evidence suggests that (4) the presence of females or large individuals represses growth and sex change of males, and (5) behavior seems to mediate the repressive influence of large females. Available data from other species tend to support these patterns. Finally, the repression of growth of males by females in protandry likely facilitates the evolution of dwarf males.

Sequence stratigraphy in the middle Ordovician shale successions, mid-east Korea: Stratigraphic variations and preservation potential of organic matter within a sequence stratigraphic framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, Uk Hwan; Lee, Hyun Suk; Kwon, Yi Kyun

2018-02-01

The Jigunsan Formation is the middle Ordovician shale-dominated transgressive succession in the Taebaeksan Basin, located in the eastern margin of the North China platform. The total organic carbon (TOC) content and some geochemical properties of the succession exhibit a stratigraphically distinct distribution pattern. The pattern was closely associated with the redox conditions related to decomposition, bulk sedimentation rate (dilution), and productivity. To explain the distinct distribution pattern, this study attempted to construct a high-resolution sequence stratigraphic framework for the Jigunsan Formation. The shale-dominated Jigunsan Formation comprises a lower layer of dark gray shale, deposited during transgression, and an upper layer of greenish gray siltstone, deposited during highstand and falling stage systems tracts. The concept of a back-stepped carbonate platform is adopted to distinguish early and late transgressive systems tracts (early and late TST) in this study, whereas the highstand systems tracts and falling stage systems tracts can be divided by changes in stacking patterns from aggradation to progradation. The late TST would be initiated on a rapidly back-stepping surface of sediments and, just above the surface, exhibits a high peak in TOC content, followed by a gradually upward decrease. This trend of TOC distribution in the late TST continues to the maximum flooding surface (MFS). The perplexing TOC distribution pattern within the late TST most likely resulted from both a gradual reduction in productivity during the late TST and a gradual increase in dilution effect near the MFS interval. The reduced production of organic matter primarily incurred decreasing TOC content toward the MFS when the productivity was mainly governed by benthic biota because planktonic organisms were not widespread in the Ordovician. Results of this study will help improve the understanding of the source rock distribution in mixed carbonate-siliciclastic successions within a stratigraphic framework, particularly for unconventional shale reservoirs.

Temporal distribution of suicide mortality: A systematic review.

PubMed

Galvão, Pauliana Valéria Machado; Silva, Hugo Rafael Souza E; Silva, Cosme Marcelo Furtado Passos da

2018-03-01

suicide is a problem with world impact and the leading cause of premature deaths. The study of its distribution over time can bring a changed understanding of parameters attributed to, and the prevention of, suicide. to identify the temporal pattern of suicide by systematic review. Pubmed (Medline), LILACS, Virtual Health Library (VHL), Science Direct and Scopus (Elsevier), Web of Science (Thomson Reuters) and PsyNET (APA) were searched, using suicide-related descriptors and terms, for observational epidemiological studies of the temporal distribution of suicide. The review protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42016038470). The lack of uniformity in reporting or standardisation of methodology in the studies selected, hindered comparison of populations with similar socioeconomic and cultural profiles, considerably limiting the scope of the results of this review. forty-five studies from 26 different countries were included in this review. Clear seasonal patterns were observed by day of the week, month, season and age-period-cohort effects. Few studies studied by trend, time of day or day of the month. the review findings provide further evidence of substantial temporal patterns influenced by geographic, climatic and social conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A recovery principle provides insight into auxin pattern control in the Arabidopsis root

PubMed Central

Moore, Simon; Liu, Junli; Zhang, Xiaoxian; Lindsey, Keith

2017-01-01

Regulated auxin patterning provides a key mechanism for controlling root growth and development. We have developed a data-driven mechanistic model using realistic root geometry and formulated a principle to theoretically investigate quantitative auxin pattern recovery following auxin transport perturbation. This principle reveals that auxin patterning is potentially controlled by multiple combinations of interlinked levels and localisation of influx and efflux carriers. We demonstrate that (1) when efflux carriers maintain polarity but change levels, maintaining the same auxin pattern requires non-uniform and polar distribution of influx carriers; (2) the emergence of the same auxin pattern, from different levels of influx carriers with the same nonpolar localisation, requires simultaneous modulation of efflux carrier level and polarity; and (3) multiple patterns of influx and efflux carriers for maintaining an auxin pattern do not have spatially proportional correlation. This reveals that auxin pattern formation requires coordination between influx and efflux carriers. We further show that the model makes various predictions that can be experimentally validated. PMID:28220889

Complementary Speckle Patterns: Deterministic Interchange of Intrinsic Vortices and Maxima through Scattering Media.

PubMed

Gateau, Jérôme; Rigneault, Hervé; Guillon, Marc

2017-01-27

Intensity maxima and zeros of speckle patterns obtained behind a diffuser are experimentally interchanged by applying a spiral phase delay of charge ±1 to the impinging coherent beam. This transform arises from the expectation that tightly focused beams, which have a planar wave front around the focus, are so changed into vortex beams and vice versa. The statistics of extrema locations and the intensity distribution of the so-generated "complementary" patterns are characterized by numerical simulations. It is demonstrated experimentally that the incoherent superposition of the three "complementary speckle patterns" yield a synthetic speckle grain size enlarged by a factor of sqrt[3]. A cyclic permutation of optical vortices and intensity maxima is unexpectedly observed and discussed.

Dominant covarying climate signals in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice influence during last three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrone, Dario; Fusco, Giannetta; Simmonds, Ian; Aulicino, Giuseppe; Budillon, Giorgio

2017-04-01

A composite dataset (comprising geopotential height, sea surface temperature, zonal and meridional surface winds, precipitation, cloud cover, surface air temperature, latent plus sensible heat fluxes , and sea ice concentration) has been investigated with the aim of revealing the dominant timescales of variability from 1982 to 2013. Three covarying climate signals associated with variations in the sea ice distribution around Antarctica have been detected through the application of the Multiple-Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD). Features of the established patterns of variation over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics have been identified in each of these three climate signals in the form of coupled or individual oscillations. The climate patterns considered here are the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Pacific-South America (PSA) teleconnection, the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) and Zonal Wavenumber-3 (ZW3) mode. It is shown that most of the sea ice temporal variance is concentrated at the quasi-triennial scale resulting from the constructive superposition of the PSA and ZW3 patterns. In addition the combination of the SAM and SAO patterns is found to promote the interannual sea ice variations underlying a general change in the Southern Ocean atmospheric and oceanic circulations. These two modes of variability are also found consistent with the occurrence of the SAM+/PSA- or SAM-/PSA+ combinations, which could have favored the cooling of the sub-Antarctic and important changes in the Antarctic sea ice distribution since 2000.

The electrosensorial pore system of the cephalofoil in the four most common species of hammerhead shark (Elasmobranchii: Sphyrnidae) from the Southwestern Atlantic.

PubMed

Mello, Waldiney

2009-04-01

The laterally expanded head is the principal character distinguishing hammerhead sharks, and its morphology is important for interpreting their ontogeny and species diversity. Because their head shape changes during its ontogeny, it is vital to evaluate it in order to establish other taxonomical characteristics to correctly identify Sphyrna species. This study examines the distribution of electrosensorial pore regions on the ventral surface of the cephalofoil (VSC) in Sphyrna lewini, S. tiburo, S. tudes and S. zygaena from the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The pore distribution patterns in the VSC can distinguish these species. Use of those patterns, with the head shape, confirms the identification of the four most common species of hammerhead sharks in the Southwestern Atlantic.

Species-abundance distribution patterns of soil fungi: contribution to the ecological understanding of their response to experimental fire in Mediterranean maquis (southern Italy).

PubMed

Persiani, Anna Maria; Maggi, Oriana

2013-01-01

Experimental fires, of both low and high intensity, were lit during summer 2000 and the following 2 y in the Castel Volturno Nature Reserve, southern Italy. Soil samples were collected Jul 2000-Jul 2002 to analyze the soil fungal community dynamics. Species abundance distribution patterns (geometric, logarithmic, log normal, broken-stick) were compared. We plotted datasets with information both on species richness and abundance for total, xerotolerant and heat-stimulated soil microfungi. The xerotolerant fungi conformed to a broken-stick model for both the low- and high intensity fires at 7 and 84 d after the fire; their distribution subsequently followed logarithmic models in the 2 y following the fire. The distribution of the heat-stimulated fungi changed from broken-stick to logarithmic models and eventually to a log-normal model during the post-fire recovery. Xerotolerant and, to a far greater extent, heat-stimulated soil fungi acquire an important functional role following soil water stress and/or fire disturbance; these disturbances let them occupy unsaturated habitats and become increasingly abundant over time.

Understanding the spatial distribution of subtidal reef assemblages in the southern Baltic Sea using towed camera platform imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beisiegel, Kolja; Darr, Alexander; Zettler, Michael L.; Friedland, René; Gräwe, Ulf; Gogina, Mayya

2018-07-01

Quantitative sampling of sessile assemblages on temperate subtidal rocky reefs is expensive and severely time-limited by logistics. However, knowledge about distribution patterns of critical and endangered species and habitats at different spatial scales is needed for effective marine management strategies. To gain information of sessile community distribution on broader spatial scales (>1 km), visual imaging was employed for the first time on a reef complex in the south-western Baltic Sea. Analysis of 3000 images along 6 transects (in total 18 km long) from 10 to 40 m depth revealed high natural variation in reef physical structure, with well-defined changes in sessile species richness, cover and composition. Overall 14 morphological groups could be distinguished by imaging and 4 distinct community groups associated with specific habitat requirements were identified. Depth remained the best descriptor. However, data indicate that light intensity, concentration of organic carbon and suspended particulate matter have an effect on reef community distribution. Compared to fully marine conditions, the study revealed a unique zonation pattern in the circalittoral zone of the Fehmarnbelt brackish transition area, with an unexpected reef habitat in the trench. We conclude that towed camera platform imagery might help to close the information gap regarding rocky reefs in the temperate subtidal. It provides a valuable tool to assess the main distribution patterns of sessile assemblages on rough terrain, potentially applicable for management and conservation planning.

Recent Changes in Tree Species Abundance: Patterns, Trends, and Drivers Across Northeastern US Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gudex-Cross, D.; Pontius, J.; Adams, A.

2017-12-01

Monitoring trends in the abundance and distribution of tree species is essential to understanding potential impacts of climate change on forested ecosystems. Related studies to date have largely focused on modeling distributional shifts according to future climate scenarios or used field inventory data to examine compositional changes across broader landscapes. Here, we leverage a novel remote sensing technique that utilizes field data, multitemporal Landsat imagery, and spectral unmixing to model regional changes in the abundance (percent basal area) of key northeastern US species over a 30-year period (1985-2015). We examine patterns in how species abundance has changed, as well as their relationship with climate, landscape, and soil characteristics using spatial regression models. Results show significant declines in overall abundance for sugar maple ( 8.6% 30-yr loss), eastern hemlock ( 7.8% 30-yr loss), balsam fir ( 5.0% 30-yr loss), and red spruce ( 3.8% total 30-yr loss). Species that saw significant increasing abundance include American beech ( 7.0% 30-yr gain) and red maple ( 2.5% 30-yr gain). However, these changes were not consistent across the landscape. For example, red spruce is increasing at upper elevations with concurrent losses in balsam fir and birch species. Similarly, sugar maple decreases are concentrated at lower elevations, likely due to increases in American beech. Various abiotic factors were significantly associated with changes in species composition including landscape position (e.g. longitude, elevation, and heat load index) and ecologically-relevant climate variables (e.g. growing season precipitation and annual temperature range). Interestingly, there was a stronger relationship in abundance changes across longitudes, rather than latitudes or elevations as predicted in modeled species migration scenarios.These results indicate that the dominant composition of northeastern forests is changing in ways that run counter to accepted successional patterns and land use history effects. We hypothesize that climate change and other anthropogenic stress agents (e.g. acid deposition legacy) are likely altering the competitive relationships among co-occurring species, with potential implications for forest management and ecosystem modeling efforts.

Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

2010-05-01

Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region changed from warm temperate forest during the last glacial maximum to the grassland and dry shrubland, suggesting a drier climate during Heinrich event 1. In south-western Africa savanna and dry woodland changed into boreal forest and boreal-temperate forest suggesting wetter conditions. The biomes diagnosed from the control-run, were compared to the modern vegetation reconstruction of BIOME 4 (http://www.bridge.bris.ac.uk/resources/Databases/BIOMES_data). Consistent biome patterns were simulated for the tropical forests of western and south-western Africa and the grasslands of northern Africa. On the other hand, in southern Europe, where the BIOME 4 vegetation reconstruction is dominated by warm temperate and temperate forest, our model shows a strong bias towards the grassland.

Spatial EMG potential distribution pattern of vastus lateralis muscle during isometric knee extension in young and elderly men.

PubMed

Watanabe, Kohei; Kouzaki, Motoki; Merletti, Roberto; Fujibayashi, Mami; Moritani, Toshio

2012-02-01

The aim of the present study was to compare spatial electromyographic (EMG) potential distribution during force production between elderly and young individuals using multi-channel surface EMG (SEMG). Thirteen elderly (72-79years) and 13 young (21-27years) healthy male volunteers performed ramp submaximal contraction during isometric knee extension from 0% to 65% of maximal voluntary contraction. During contraction, multi-channel EMG was recorded from the vastus lateralis muscle. To evaluate alteration in heterogeneity and pattern in spatial EMG potential distribution, coefficient of variation (CoV), modified entropy and correlation coefficients with initial torque level were calculated from multi-channel SEMG at 5% force increment. Increase in CoV and decrease in modified entropy of RMS with increase of exerted torque were significantly smaller in elderly group (p<0.05) and correlation coefficients with initial torque level were significantly higher in elderly group than in young group at moderate torque levels (p<0.05). These data suggest that the increase of heterogeneity and the change in the activation pattern are smaller in elderly individuals than in young individuals. We speculated that multi-channel SEMG pattern in elderly individual reflects neuromuscular activation strategy regulated predominantly by clustering of similar type of muscle fibers in aged muscle. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constraints on radial migration in spiral galaxies - II. Angular momentum distribution and preferential migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniel, Kathryne J.; Wyse, Rosemary F. G.

2018-05-01

The orbital angular momentum of individual stars in galactic discs can be permanently changed through torques from transient spiral patterns. Interactions at the corotation resonance dominate these changes and have the further property of conserving orbital circularity. We derived in an earlier paper an analytic criterion that an unperturbed stellar orbit must satisfy in order for such an interaction to occur, i.e. for it to be in a trapped orbit around corotation. We here use this criterion in an investigation of how the efficiency of induced radial migration for a population of disc stars varies with the angular momentum distribution of that population. We frame our results in terms of the velocity dispersion of the population, this being an easier observable than is the angular momentum distribution. Specifically, we investigate how the fraction of stars in trapped orbits at corotation varies with the velocity dispersion of the population, for a system with an assumed flat rotation curve. Our analytic results agree with the finding from simulations that radial migration is less effective in populations with `hotter' kinematics. We further quantify the dependence of this trapped fraction on the strength of the spiral pattern, finding a higher trapped fraction for higher amplitude perturbations.

Application of Powder Diffraction Methods to the Analysis of Short- and Long-Range Atomic Order in Nanocrystalline Diamond and SiC: The Concept of the Apparent Lattice Parameter (alp)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palosz, B.; Grzanka, E.; Gierlotka, S.; Stelmakh, S.; Pielaszek, R.; Bismayer, U.; Weber, H.-P.; Palosz, W.

2003-01-01

Two methods of the analysis of powder diffraction patterns of diamond and SiC nanocrystals are presented: (a) examination of changes of the lattice parameters with diffraction vector Q ('apparent lattice parameter', alp) which refers to Bragg scattering, and (b), examination of changes of inter-atomic distances based on the analysis of the atomic Pair Distribution Function, PDF. Application of these methods was studied based on the theoretical diffraction patterns computed for models of nanocrystals having (i) a perfect crystal lattice, and (ii), a core-shell structure, i.e. constituting a two-phase system. The models are defined by the lattice parameter of the grain core, thickness of the surface shell, and the magnitude and distribution of the strain field in the shell. X-ray and neutron experimental diffraction data of nanocrystalline SiC and diamond powders of the grain diameter from 4 nm up to micrometers were used. The effects of the internal pressure and strain at the grain surface on the structure are discussed based on the experimentally determined dependence of the alp values on the Q-vector, and changes of the interatomic distances with the grain size determined experimentally by the atomic Pair Distribution Function (PDF) analysis. The experimental results lend a strong support to the concept of a two-phase, core and the surface shell structure of nanocrystalline diamond and SiC.

Geographic associations between lactase phenotype, multiple sclerosis, and inflammatory bowel diseases; Does obesity trump geography?

PubMed

Szilagyi, Andew; Xue, Xiaoqing

2016-11-01

Geographic patterns with diminishing rates from north to south toward the equator have been described for a number of diseases, putatively related largely to "western" lifestyle. Among these the inflammatory bowel diseases; Crohn's (CD) and Ulcerative colitis (UC) have been prominent in sharing distributions with a number of autoimmune diseases. One of the interesting associations is the epidemiologic similarity with multiple sclerosis (MS). However, in addition, at least some of these diseases also correlated inversely with lactase non persistent population (LNP) distributions. It is hypothesized that MS should also have an inverse relationship with LNP. We provide support for this by comparing published MS, CD, UC and LNP national rates to the beginning of the new millennium. Possible links among these diseases may be an evolutionary signature of new genes which may have accompanied emergence of lactase persistence millennia ago. The emergent phenotypic dichotomy also forced different assimilation responses to lactose digestion. While intestinal retention of lactase results in direct host enzymatic digestion, in LNP persons intestinal bacterial metabolism of lactose impacts on the host micro-flora. These microbial changes may play some role in altering rates of diseases including IBD and MS. However, since the late 20th century previously observed patterns are changing. Although industrialization is considered to play an important modifying role, the rising rates of obesity with an emphasis on diet, and microfloral pathogenesis, but with an independent geographic pattern may also facilitate altering rates and geographic distributions of both of these and other diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea in relation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Walraven, Lodewijk; Dapper, Rob; Nauw, Janine J.; Tulp, Ingrid; Witte, Johannes IJ.; van der Veer, Henk W.

2017-09-01

Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea were studied using a 53 year (1960-2013) high resolution time series of daily kom-fyke catches in spring and autumn. Trends in first appearance, last occurrence and peak abundance were analysed for the most common species in relation to mode of life (pelagic, demersal, benthopelagic) and biogeographic guild (northern or southern distribution). Climate change in the western Wadden Sea involved an increase in water temperature from 1980 onwards. The main pattern in first day of occurrence, peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was similar: a positive trend over time and a correlation with spring and summer water temperature. This is counterintuitive; with increasing temperature, an advanced immigration of fish species would be expected. An explanation might be that water temperatures have increased offshore as well and hence fish remain longer there, delaying their immigration to the Wadden Sea. The main trend towards later date of peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was in line with our expectations: a forward shift in immigration into the Wadden Sea implies also that peak abundance is delayed. As a consequence of the increased water temperature, autumn water temperature remains favourable longer than before. For most of the species present, the Wadden Sea is not near the edge of their distributional range. The most striking phenological shifts occurred in those individual species for which the Wadden Sea is near the southern or northern edge of their distribution.

Measuring the relative resilience of subarctic lakes to global change: redundancies of functions within and across temporal scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2013-01-01

1. Ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are expected to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global change. We assessed the responses of littoral invertebrate communities to changing abiotic conditions in subarctic Swedish lakes with long-term data (1988–2010) and compared the responses of subarctic lakes with those of more southern, hemiboreal lakes. 2. We used a complex systems approach, based on multivariate time-series modelling, and identified dominant and distinct temporal frequencies in the data; that is, we tracked community change at distinct temporal scales. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across temporal scales. Within and cross-scale distributions of functions have been considered to confer resilience to ecosystems, despite changing environmental conditions. 3. Two patterns of temporal change within the invertebrate communities were identified that were consistent across the lakes. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second was one of showing fluctuation patterns largely unrelated to gradual environmental change. Thus, two dominant and distinct temporal frequencies (temporal scales) were present in all lakes analysed. 4. Although the contribution of individual feeding groups varied between subarctic and hemiboreal lakes, they shared overall similar functional attributes (richness, evenness, diversity) and redundancies of functions within and between the observed temporal scales. This highlights similar resilience characteristics in subarctic and hemiboreal lakes. 5. Synthesis and applications. The effects of global change can be particularly strong at a single scale in ecosystems. Over time, this can cause monotonic change in communities and eventually lead to a loss of important ecosystem services upon reaching a critical threshold. Dynamics at other spatial or temporal scales can be unrelated to environmental change. The relative ‘intactness’ of these scales that are unaffected by global change and the persistence of functions at those scales may safeguard the whole system from the potential loss of functions at the scale at which global change impacts can be substantial. Thus, an understanding of scale-specific processes provides managers with a realistic assessment of vulnerabilities and the relative resilience of ecosystems to environmental change. Explicit consideration of ‘intact’ and ‘affected’ scales in analyses of global change impacts provides opportunities to tailor more specific management plans.

Prey field switching based on preferential behaviour can induce Lévy flights

PubMed Central

Lundy, Mathieu G.; Harrison, Alan; Buckley, Daniel J.; Boston, Emma S.; Scott, David D.; Teeling, Emma C.; Montgomery, W. Ian; Houghton, Jonathan D. R.

2013-01-01

Using the foraging movements of an insectivorous bat, Myotis mystacinus, we describe temporal switching of foraging behaviour in response to resource availability. These observations conform to predictions of optimized search under the Lévy flight paradigm. However, we suggest that this occurs as a result of a preference behaviour and knowledge of resource distribution. Preferential behaviour and knowledge of a familiar area generate distinct movement patterns as resource availability changes on short temporal scales. The behavioural response of predators to changes in prey fields can elicit different functional responses, which are considered to be central in the development of stable predator–prey communities. Recognizing how the foraging movements of an animal relate to environmental conditions also elucidates the evolution of optimized search and the prevalence of discrete strategies in natural systems. Applying techniques that use changes in the frequency distribution of movements facilitates exploration of the processes that underpin behavioural changes. PMID:23054951

The development of a multifunction lens test instrument by using computer aided variable test patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chun-Jen; Wu, Wen-Hong; Huang, Kuo-Cheng

2009-08-01

A multi-function lens test instrument is report in this paper. This system can evaluate the image resolution, image quality, depth of field, image distortion and light intensity distribution of the tested lens by changing the tested patterns. This system consists of a tested lens, a CCD camera, a linear motorized stage, a system fixture, an observer LCD monitor, and a notebook for pattern providing. The LCD monitor displays a serious of specified tested patterns sent by the notebook. Then each displayed pattern goes through the tested lens and images in the CCD camera sensor. Consequently, the system can evaluate the performance of the tested lens by analyzing the image of CCD camera with special designed software. The major advantage of this system is that it can complete whole test quickly without interruption due to part replacement, because the tested patterns are statically displayed on monitor and controlled by the notebook.

Characterising and Predicting Benthic Biodiversity for Conservation Planning in Deepwater Environments

PubMed Central

Dunstan, Piers K.; Althaus, Franziska; Williams, Alan; Bax, Nicholas J.

2012-01-01

Understanding patterns of biodiversity in deep sea systems is increasingly important because human activities are extending further into these areas. However, obtaining data is difficult, limiting the ability of science to inform management decisions. We have used three different methods of quantifying biodiversity to describe patterns of biodiversity in an area that includes two marine reserves in deep water off southern Australia. We used biological data collected during a recent survey, combined with extensive physical data to model, predict and map three different attributes of biodiversity: distributions of common species, beta diversity and rank abundance distributions (RAD). The distribution of each of eight common species was unique, although all the species respond to a depth-correlated physical gradient. Changes in composition (beta diversity) were large, even between sites with very similar environmental conditions. Composition at any one site was highly uncertain, and the suite of species changed dramatically both across and down slope. In contrast, the distributions of the RAD components of biodiversity (community abundance, richness, and evenness) were relatively smooth across the study area, suggesting that assemblage structure (i.e. the distribution of abundances of species) is limited, irrespective of species composition. Seamounts had similar biodiversity based on metrics of species presence, beta diversity, total abundance, richness and evenness to the adjacent continental slope in the same depth ranges. These analyses suggest that conservation objectives need to clearly identify which aspects of biodiversity are valued, and employ an appropriate suite of methods to address these aspects, to ensure that conservation goals are met. PMID:22606271

Characterising and predicting benthic biodiversity for conservation planning in deepwater environments.

PubMed

Dunstan, Piers K; Althaus, Franziska; Williams, Alan; Bax, Nicholas J

2012-01-01

Understanding patterns of biodiversity in deep sea systems is increasingly important because human activities are extending further into these areas. However, obtaining data is difficult, limiting the ability of science to inform management decisions. We have used three different methods of quantifying biodiversity to describe patterns of biodiversity in an area that includes two marine reserves in deep water off southern Australia. We used biological data collected during a recent survey, combined with extensive physical data to model, predict and map three different attributes of biodiversity: distributions of common species, beta diversity and rank abundance distributions (RAD). The distribution of each of eight common species was unique, although all the species respond to a depth-correlated physical gradient. Changes in composition (beta diversity) were large, even between sites with very similar environmental conditions. Composition at any one site was highly uncertain, and the suite of species changed dramatically both across and down slope. In contrast, the distributions of the RAD components of biodiversity (community abundance, richness, and evenness) were relatively smooth across the study area, suggesting that assemblage structure (i.e. the distribution of abundances of species) is limited, irrespective of species composition. Seamounts had similar biodiversity based on metrics of species presence, beta diversity, total abundance, richness and evenness to the adjacent continental slope in the same depth ranges. These analyses suggest that conservation objectives need to clearly identify which aspects of biodiversity are valued, and employ an appropriate suite of methods to address these aspects, to ensure that conservation goals are met.

The effects of nicotine exposure and PFC transection on the time-frequency distribution of VTA DA neurons' firing activities.

PubMed

Chen, Ting Y; Zhang, Die; Dragomir, Andrei; Akay, Yasemin; Akay, Metin

2011-05-01

We investigated the influence of nicotine exposure and prefrontal cortex (PFC) transections on ventral tegmental areas (VTA) dopamine (DA) neurons' firing activities using a time-frequency method based on the continuous wavelet transform (CWT). Extracellular single-unit neural activity was recorded from DA neurons in the VTA area of rats. One group had their PFC inputs to the VTA intact, while the other group had the inputs to VTA bilaterally transected immediate caudal to the PFC. We hypothesized that the systemic nicotine exposure will significantly change the energy distribution in the recorded neural activity. Additionally, we investigated whether the loss of inputs to the VTA caused by the PFC transection resulted in the cancellation of the nicotine' effect on the neurons' firing patterns. The time-frequency representations of VTA DA neurons firing activity were estimated from the reconstructed firing rate histogram. The energy contents were estimated from three frequency bands, which are known to encompass the significant modes of operation of DA neurons. Our results show that systemic nicotine exposure disrupts the energy distribution in PFC-intact rats. Particularly, there is a significant increase in energy contents of the 1-1.5 Hz frequency band. This corresponds to an observed increase in the firing rate of VTA DA neurons following nicotine exposure. Additionally, our results from PFC-transected rats show that there is no change in the energy distribution of the recordings after systemic nicotine exposure. These results indicate that the PFC plays an important role in affecting the activities of VTA DA neurons and that the CWT is a useful method for monitoring the changes in neural activity patterns in both time and frequency domains.

Combined point and distributed techniques for multidimensional estimation of spatial groundwater-stream water exchange in a heterogeneous sand bed-stream.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaona Garcia, J.; Lewandowski, J.; Bellin, A.

2017-12-01

Groundwater-stream water interactions in rivers determine water balances, but also chemical and biological processes in the streambed at different spatial and temporal scales. Due to the difficult identification and quantification of gaining, neutral and losing conditions, it is necessary to combine techniques with complementary capabilities and scale ranges. We applied this concept to a study site at the River Schlaube, East Brandenburg-Germany, a sand bed stream with intense sediment heterogeneity and complex environmental conditions. In our approach, point techniques such as temperature profiles of the streambed together with vertical hydraulic gradients provide data for the estimation of fluxes between groundwater and surface water with the numerical model 1DTempPro. On behalf of distributed techniques, fiber optic distributed temperature sensing identifies the spatial patterns of neutral, down- and up-welling areas by analysis of the changes in the thermal patterns at the streambed interface under certain flow. The study finally links point and surface temperatures to provide a method for upscaling of fluxes. Point techniques provide point flux estimates with essential depth detail to infer streambed structures while the results hardly represent the spatial distribution of fluxes caused by the heterogeneity of streambed properties. Fiber optics proved capable of providing spatial thermal patterns with enough resolution to observe distinct hyporheic thermal footprints at multiple scales. The relation of thermal footprint patterns and temporal behavior with flux results from point techniques enabled the use of methods for spatial flux estimates. The lack of detailed information of the physical driver's spatial distribution restricts the spatial flux estimation to the application of the T-proxy method, whose highly uncertain results mainly provide coarse spatial flux estimates. The study concludes that the upscaling of groundwater-stream water interactions using thermal measurements with combined point and distributed techniques requires the integration of physical drivers because of the heterogeneity of the flux patterns. Combined experimental and modeling approaches may help to obtain more reliable understanding of groundwater-surface water interactions at multiple scales.

Pigment pattern in jaguar/obelix zebrafish is caused by a Kir7.1 mutation: implications for the regulation of melanosome movement.

PubMed

Iwashita, Motoko; Watanabe, Masakatsu; Ishii, Masaru; Chen, Tim; Johnson, Stephen L; Kurachi, Yoshihisa; Okada, Norihiro; Kondo, Shigeru

2006-11-24

Many animals have a variety of pigment patterns, even within a species, and these patterns may be one of the driving forces of speciation. Recent molecular genetic studies on zebrafish have revealed that interaction among pigment cells plays a key role in pattern formation, but the mechanism of pattern formation is unclear. The zebrafish jaguar/obelix mutant has broader stripes than wild-type fish. In this mutant, the development of pigment cells is normal but their distribution is altered, making these fish ideal for studying the process of pigment pattern formation. Here, we utilized a positional cloning method to determine that the inwardly rectifying potassium channel 7.1 (Kir7.1) gene is responsible for pigment cell distribution among jaguar/obelix mutant fish. Furthermore, in jaguar/obelix mutant alleles, we identified amino acid changes in the conserved region of Kir7.1, each of which affected K(+) channel activity as demonstrated by patch-clamp experiments. Injection of a bacterial artificial chromosome containing the wild-type Kir7.1 genomic sequence rescued the jaguar/obelix phenotype. From these results, we conclude that mutations in Kir7.1 are responsible for jaguar/obelix. We also determined that the ion channel function defect of melanophores expressing mutant Kir7.1 altered the cellular response to external signals. We discovered that mutant melanophores cannot respond correctly to the melanosome dispersion signal derived from the sympathetic neuron and that melanosome aggregation is constitutively activated. In zebrafish and medaka, it is well known that melanosome aggregation and subsequent melanophore death increase when fish are kept under constant light conditions. These observations indicate that melanophores of jaguar/obelix mutant fish have a defect in the signaling pathway downstream of the alpha2-adrenoceptor. Taken together, our results suggest that the cellular defect of the Kir7.1 mutation is directly responsible for the pattern change in the jaguar/obelix mutant.

Pigment Pattern in jaguar/obelix Zebrafish Is Caused by a Kir7.1 Mutation: Implications for the Regulation of Melanosome Movement

PubMed Central

Iwashita, Motoko; Watanabe, Masakatsu; Ishii, Masaru; Chen, Tim; Johnson, Stephen L; Kurachi, Yoshihisa; Okada, Norihiro; Kondo, Shigeru

2006-01-01

Many animals have a variety of pigment patterns, even within a species, and these patterns may be one of the driving forces of speciation. Recent molecular genetic studies on zebrafish have revealed that interaction among pigment cells plays a key role in pattern formation, but the mechanism of pattern formation is unclear. The zebrafish jaguar/obelix mutant has broader stripes than wild-type fish. In this mutant, the development of pigment cells is normal but their distribution is altered, making these fish ideal for studying the process of pigment pattern formation. Here, we utilized a positional cloning method to determine that the inwardly rectifying potassium channel 7.1 (Kir7.1) gene is responsible for pigment cell distribution among jaguar/obelix mutant fish. Furthermore, in jaguar/obelix mutant alleles, we identified amino acid changes in the conserved region of Kir7.1, each of which affected K+ channel activity as demonstrated by patch-clamp experiments. Injection of a bacterial artificial chromosome containing the wild-type Kir7.1 genomic sequence rescued the jaguar/obelix phenotype. From these results, we conclude that mutations in Kir7.1 are responsible for jaguar/obelix. We also determined that the ion channel function defect of melanophores expressing mutant Kir7.1 altered the cellular response to external signals. We discovered that mutant melanophores cannot respond correctly to the melanosome dispersion signal derived from the sympathetic neuron and that melanosome aggregation is constitutively activated. In zebrafish and medaka, it is well known that melanosome aggregation and subsequent melanophore death increase when fish are kept under constant light conditions. These observations indicate that melanophores of jaguar/obelix mutant fish have a defect in the signaling pathway downstream of the α2-adrenoceptor. Taken together, our results suggest that the cellular defect of the Kir7.1 mutation is directly responsible for the pattern change in the jaguar/obelix mutant. PMID:17121467

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

PubMed

Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie

2018-02-01

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats). © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Differential distribution of blood and lymphatic vessels in the murine cornea.

PubMed

Ecoiffier, Tatiana; Yuen, Don; Chen, Lu

2010-05-01

Because of its unique characteristics, the cornea has been widely used for blood and lymphatic vessel research. However, whether limbal or corneal vessels are evenly distributed under normal or inflamed conditions has never been studied. The purpose of this study was to investigate this question and to examine whether and how the distribution patterns change during corneal inflammatory lymphangiogenesis (LG) and hemangiogenesis (HG). Corneal inflammatory LG and HG were induced in two most commonly used mouse strains, BALB/c and C57BL/6 (6-8 weeks of age), by a standardized two-suture placement model. Oriented flat-mount corneas together with the limbal tissues were used for immunofluorescence microscope studies. Blood and lymphatic vessels under normal and inflamed conditions were analyzed and quantified to compare their distributions. The data demonstrate, for the first time, greater distribution of both blood and lymphatic vessels in the nasal side in normal murine limbal areas. This nasal-dominant pattern was maintained during corneal inflammatory LG, whereas it was lost for HG. Blood and lymphatic vessels are not evenly distributed in normal limbal areas. Furthermore, corneal LG and HG respond differently to inflammatory stimuli. These new findings will shed some light on corneal physiology and pathogenesis and on the development of experimental models and therapeutic strategies for corneal diseases.

Thermokarst Characteristics and Distribution in a Transitional Arctic Biome: New Discoveries and Possible Monitoring Directions in a Climate Change Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balser, A. W.; Gooseff, M. N.; Jones, J. B.; Bowden, W. B.; Sanzone, D. M.; Allen, A.; Larouche, J. R.

2006-12-01

In arctic regions, climate warming is leading to permafrost melting and wide-scale ecosystem alteration. A prominent pathway of permafrost loss is through thermokarst, which includes the catastrophic loss of soil structure and rapid subsidence. The regional-scale distribution of thermokarst is poorly documented throughout arctic regions. Remote landscapes and a lack of reliable, regional-scale detection techniques severely hamper our understanding of past prevalence and present distribution patterns. Intensive field campaigns are providing key data to bolster our understanding of the distribution and the characteristics of thermokarst formation, and enabling comprehensive method studies to develop remotely-sensed detection techniques. The Noatak Valley in northwestern Alaska's Brooks Range mountains harbors a transitional landscape from arctic and alpine tundra to boreal forest, all contained in a single 7,000,000 acre watershed. Preliminary field investigations augmented by photogrammetric measurements in 2006 revealed consistent patterns in the distribution of classifiable thermokarst feature types in a 2300 square-mile study area in the middle Noatak basin. Four distinct classes of thermokarst show remarkably tight relationships with ambient slope and local landcover. These investigations tie to larger efforts to document past and present regional distribution, testing remotely sensed data analysis techniques for baseline metrics and a future monitoring scheme.

High-resolution pattern of mangrove species distribution is controlled by surface elevation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leong, Rick C.; Friess, Daniel A.; Crase, Beth; Lee, Wei Kit; Webb, Edward L.

2018-03-01

Mangrove vegetation species respond to multiple environmental gradients, and an enhanced understanding of how mangrove species are distributed across these gradients will facilitate conservation and management. Many environmental gradients correlate with tidal inundation; however small-scale inundation patterns resulting from microtopographical changes are difficult to capture empirically. In contrast, surface elevation is often a suitable, measurable and cost-effective proxy for inundation. This study investigated the relationships between species distribution and surface elevation in a mangrove forest in northwest Singapore. Through high-resolution land surveying, we developed a digital elevation model (DEM) and conducted a comprehensive survey of 4380 trees with a stem diameter ≥ 5 cm. A total of 15 species were encountered, and elevation envelopes were generated for 12. Species envelopes were distributed along an elevation continuum, with most species overlapping within the continuum. Spatial autocorrelation (SAC) was present for nine of the 15 species, and when taken into account, species ordering was modified across the elevation continuum. The presence of SAC strongly reinforces the need for research to control for SAC: classical spatial description of mangrove species distribution should be revised to account for ecological factors. This study suggests that (1) surface elevation applies strong controls on species distribution and (2) most mangroves at our study site have similar physiological tolerances.

Lévy flight and Brownian search patterns of a free-ranging predator reflect different prey field characteristics.

PubMed

Sims, David W; Humphries, Nicolas E; Bradford, Russell W; Bruce, Barry D

2012-03-01

1. Search processes play an important role in physical, chemical and biological systems. In animal foraging, the search strategy predators should use to search optimally for prey is an enduring question. Some models demonstrate that when prey is sparsely distributed, an optimal search pattern is a specialised random walk known as a Lévy flight, whereas when prey is abundant, simple Brownian motion is sufficiently efficient. These predictions form part of what has been termed the Lévy flight foraging hypothesis (LFF) which states that as Lévy flights optimise random searches, movements approximated by optimal Lévy flights may have naturally evolved in organisms to enhance encounters with targets (e.g. prey) when knowledge of their locations is incomplete. 2. Whether free-ranging predators exhibit the movement patterns predicted in the LFF hypothesis in response to known prey types and distributions, however, has not been determined. We tested this using vertical and horizontal movement data from electronic tagging of an apex predator, the great white shark Carcharodon carcharias, across widely differing habitats reflecting different prey types. 3. Individual white sharks exhibited movement patterns that predicted well the prey types expected under the LFF hypothesis. Shark movements were best approximated by Brownian motion when hunting near abundant, predictable sources of prey (e.g. seal colonies, fish aggregations), whereas movements approximating truncated Lévy flights were present when searching for sparsely distributed or potentially difficult-to-detect prey in oceanic or shelf environments, respectively. 4. That movement patterns approximated by truncated Lévy flights and Brownian behaviour were present in the predicted prey fields indicates search strategies adopted by white sharks appear to be the most efficient ones for encountering prey in the habitats where such patterns are observed. This suggests that C. carcharias appears capable of exhibiting search patterns that are approximated as optimal in response to encountered changes in prey type and abundance, and across diverse marine habitats, from the surf zone to the deep ocean. 5. Our results provide some support for the LFF hypothesis. However, it is possible that the observed Lévy patterns of white sharks may not arise from an adaptive behaviour but could be an emergent property arising from simple, straight-line movements between complex (e.g. fractal) distributions of prey. Experimental studies are needed in vertebrates to test for the presence of Lévy behaviour patterns in the absence of complex prey distributions. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Effect of tubing deposition, breathing pattern, and temperature on aerosol mass distribution measured by cascade impactor.

PubMed

Gurses, Burak K; Smaldone, Gerald C

2003-01-01

Aerosols produced by nebulizers are often characterized on the bench using cascade impactors. We studied the effects of connecting tubing, breathing pattern, and temperature on mass-weighted aerodynamic particle size aerosol distributions (APSD) measured by cascade impaction. Our experimental setup consisted of a piston ventilator, low-flow (1.0 L/min) cascade impactor, two commercially available nebulizers that produced large and small particles, and two "T"-shaped tubes called "Tconnector(cascade)" and "Tconnector(nebulizer)" placed above the impactor and the nebulizer, respectively. Radiolabeled normal saline was nebulized using an airtank at 50 PSIG; APSD, mass balance, and Tconnector(cascade) deposition were measured with a gamma camera and radioisotope calibrator. Flow through the circuit was defined by the air tank (standing cloud, 10 L/min) with or without a piston pump, which superimposed a sinusoidal flow on the flow from the air tank (tidal volume and frequency of breathing). Experiments were performed at room temperature and in a cooled environment. With increasing tidal volume and frequency, smaller particles entered the cascade impactor (decreasing MMAD; e.g., Misty-Neb, 4.2 +/- 0.9 microm at lowest ventilation and 2.7 +/- 0.1 microm at highest, p = 0.042). These effects were reduced in magnitude for the nebulizer that produced smaller particles (AeroTech II, MMAD 1.8 +/- 0.1 to 1.3 +/- 0.1 microm; p = 0.0044). Deposition on Tconnector(cascade) increased with ventilation but was independent of cascade impactor flow. Imaging of the Tconnector(cascade) revealed a pattern of deposition unaffected by cascade impactor flow. These measurements suggest that changes in MMAD with ventilation were not artifacts of tubing deposition in the Tconnector(cascade). At lower temperatures, APSD distributions were more polydisperse. Our data suggest that, during patient inhalation, changes in particle distribution occur that are related to conditions in the tubing and may reduce the diameters of particles entering the patient. This effect is more significant for nebulizers producing large particles. Changes in ambient temperature did not affect these observations.

Distributional properties of relative phase in bimanual coordination.

PubMed

James, Eric; Layne, Charles S; Newell, Karl M

2010-10-01

Studies of bimanual coordination have typically estimated the stability of coordination patterns through the use of the circular standard deviation of relative phase. The interpretation of this statistic depends upon the assumption of a von Mises distribution. The present study tested this assumption by examining the distributional properties of relative phase in three bimanual coordination patterns. There were significant deviations from the von Mises distribution due to differences in the kurtosis of distributions. The kurtosis depended upon the relative phase pattern performed, with leptokurtic distributions occurring in the in-phase and antiphase patterns and platykurtic distributions occurring in the 30° pattern. Thus, the distributional assumptions needed to validly and reliably use the standard deviation are not necessarily present in relative phase data though they are qualitatively consistent with the landscape properties of the intrinsic dynamics.

Common Warming Pattern Emerges Irrespective of Forcing Location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Sarah M.; Park, Kiwoong; Jin, Fei-Fei; Stuecker, Malte F.

2017-10-01

The Earth's climate is changing due to the existence of multiple radiative forcing agents. It is under question whether different forcing agents perturb the global climate in a distinct way. Previous studies have demonstrated the existence of similar climate response patterns in response to aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings. In this study, the sensitivity of tropospheric temperature response patterns to surface heating distributions is assessed by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet slab ocean with a wide range of possible forcing patterns. We show that a common climate pattern emerges in response to localized forcing at different locations. This pattern, characterized by enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and the polar lower troposphere, resembles the historical trends from observations and models as well as the future projections. Atmospheric dynamics in combination with thermodynamic air-sea coupling are primarily responsible for shaping this pattern. Identifying this common pattern strengthens our confidence in the projected response to GHG and aerosols in complex climate models.

Spatiotemporal patterns of population distribution as crucial element for risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gokesch, Karin; Promper, Catrin; van Westen, Cees J.; Glade, Thomas

2014-05-01

The spatiotemporal distribution and presence of the population in a certain area is a crucial element within natural hazard risk management, especially in the case of rapid onset hazard events and emergency management. When fast onset hazards such as earthquakes, flash floods or industrial accidents occur, people may not have adequate time for evacuation and the emergency management requires a fast response and reaction. Therefore, information on detailed distribution of people affected by a certain hazard is important for a fast assessment of the situation including the number and the type of people (distinguishing between elderly or handicapped people, children, working population etc.) affected. This study thus aims at analyzing population distribution on an hourly basis for different days e.g. workday or holiday. The applied method combines the basic assessment of population distribution in a given area with specific location-related patterns of distribution-changes over time. The calculations are based on detailed information regarding the expected presence of certain groups of people, e.g. school children, working or elderly people, which all show different patterns of movement over certain time periods. The study area is the city of Waidhofen /Ybbs located in the Alpine foreland in the Southwest of Lower Austria. This city serves as a regional center providing basic infrastructure, shops and schools for the surrounding countryside. Therefore a lot of small and medium businesses are located in this area showing a rather high variation of population present at different times of the day. The available building footprint information was classified with respect to building type and occupancy type, which was used to estimate the expected residents within the buildings, based on the floorspace of the buildings and the average floorspace per person. Additional information on the distribution and the average duration of stay of the people in these buildings was assessed using general population statistics and specific information about selected buildings, such as schools, hospitals or homes for the elderly, to calculate the distribution patterns for each group of people over time.

The regional distribution of doctors in Mexico, 1930-1990: a policy assessment.

PubMed

Nigenda, G

1997-02-01

The results of the doctor distributional policy in Mexico is evaluated. Despite the government's efforts to achieve a better distribution of doctors throughout the country between 1930 and 1990, important disparities still exist among geographic areas. Diverse factors ranging from the underdevelopment of some areas, to the resistance of doctors to leave the urban areas, are related to this unequal distribution. Early programmes aimed at redressing the original distribution in the 1930's had limited effects. In subsequent years, additional programmes were implemented. However, a lack of coordination and the short time span of many programmes produced only minor changes to the distributional pattern. Although in recent years the distribution has improved, southern states still suffer an acute scarcity while northern states have a relative abundance. Finally, the paper discusses how economic, political and social variables, as well as the structure of the health system, have shaped the current distribution of Mexican doctors.

Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model using observed spatial patterns from MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirel, Mehmet C.; González, Gorka M.; Mai, Juliane; Stisen, Simon

2016-04-01

Distributed hydrologic models are typically calibrated against streamflow observations at the outlet of the basin. Along with these observations from gauging stations, satellite based estimates offer independent evaluation data such as remotely sensed actual evapotranspiration (aET) and land surface temperature. The primary objective of the study is to compare model calibrations against traditional downstream discharge measurements with calibrations against simulated spatial patterns and combinations of both types of observations. While the discharge based model calibration typically improves the temporal dynamics of the model, it seems to give rise to minimum improvement of the simulated spatial patterns. In contrast, objective functions specifically targeting the spatial pattern performance could potentially increase the spatial model performance. However, most modeling studies, including the model formulations and parameterization, are not designed to actually change the simulated spatial pattern during calibration. This study investigates the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM). This model is selected as it allows for a change in the spatial distribution of key soil parameters through the optimization of pedo-transfer function parameters and includes options for using fully distributed daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) values directly as input. In addition the simulated aET can be estimated at a spatial resolution suitable for comparison to the spatial patterns observed with MODIS data. To increase our control on spatial calibration we introduced three additional parameters to the model. These new parameters are part of an empirical equation to the calculate crop coefficient (Kc) from daily LAI maps and used to update potential evapotranspiration (PET) as model inputs. This is done instead of correcting/updating PET with just a uniform (or aspect driven) factor used in the mHM model (version 5.3). We selected the 20 most important parameters out of 53 mHM parameters based on a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (Cuntz et al., 2015). We calibrated 1km-daily mHM for the Skjern basin in Denmark using the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm and inputs at different spatial scales i.e. meteorological data at 10km and morphological data at 250 meters. We used correlation coefficients between observed monthly (summer months only) MODIS data calculated from cloud free days over the calibration period from 2001 to 2008 and simulated aET from mHM over the same period. Similarly other metrics, e.g mapcurves and fraction skill-score, are also included in our objective function to assess the co-location of the grid-cells. The preliminary results show that multi-objective calibration of mHM against observed streamflow and spatial patterns together does not significantly reduce the spatial errors in aET while it improves the streamflow simulations. This is a strong signal for further investigation of the multi parameter regionalization affecting spatial aET patterns and weighting the spatial metrics in the objective function relative to the streamflow metrics.

Shape, colour plasticity, and habitat use indicate morph-specific camouflage strategies in a marine shrimp.

PubMed

Duarte, Rafael C; Stevens, Martin; Flores, Augusto A V

2016-10-18

Colour and shape polymorphisms are important features of many species and may allow individuals to exploit a wider array of habitats, including through behavioural differences among morphs. In addition, differences among individuals in behaviour and morphology may reflect different strategies, for example utilising different approaches to camouflage. Hippolyte obliquimanus is a small shrimp species inhabiting different shallow-water vegetated habitats. Populations comprise two main morphs: homogeneous shrimp of variable colour (H) and transparent individuals with coloured stripes (ST). These morphs follow different distribution patterns between their main algal habitats; the brown weed Sargassum furcatum and the pink-red weed Galaxaura marginata. In this study, we first investigated morph-specific colour change and habitat selection, as mechanisms underlying camouflage and spatial distribution patterns in nature. Then, we examined habitat fidelity, mobility, and morphological traits, further indicating patterns of habitat use. H shrimp are capable of changing colour in just a few days towards their algal background, achieving better concealment in the more marginal, and less preferred, red weed habitat. Furthermore, laboratory trials showed that habitat fidelity is higher for H shrimp, whereas swimming activity is higher for the ST morph, aligned to morphological evidence indicating these two morphs comprise a more benthic (H) and a more pelagic (ST) life-style, respectively. Results suggest that H shrimp utilise a camouflage strategy specialised to a limited number of backgrounds at any one time, whereas ST individuals comprise a phenotype with more generalist camouflage (transparency) linked to a more generalist background utilisation. The coexistence within a population of distinct morphotypes with apparently alternative strategies of habitat use and camouflage may reflect differential responses to substantial seasonal changes in macroalgal cover. Our findings also demonstrate how colour change, behaviour, morphology, and background use all interact in achieving camouflage.

Meta-analysis of published transcriptional and translational fold changes reveals a preference for low-fold inductions.

PubMed

Wren, Jonathan D; Conway, Tyrrell

2006-01-01

The goals of this study were to gain a better quantitative understanding of the dynamic range of transcriptional and translational response observed in biological systems and to examine the reporting of regulatory events for trends and biases. A straightforward pattern-matching routine extracted 3,408 independent observations regarding transcriptional fold-changes and 1,125 regarding translational fold-changes from over 15 million MEDLINE abstracts. Approximately 95% of reported changes were > or =2-fold. Further, the historical trend of reporting individual fold-changes is declining in favor of high-throughput methods for transcription but not translation. Where it was possible to compare the average fold-changes in transcription and translation for the same gene/product (203 examples), approximately 53% were a < or =2-fold difference, suggesting a loose tendency for the two to be coupled in magnitude. We found also that approximately three-fourths of reported regulatory events have been at the transcriptional level. The frequency distribution appears to be normally distributed and peaks near 2-fold, suggesting that nature selects for a low-energy solution to regulatory responses. Because high-throughput technologies ordinarily sacrifice measurement quality for quantity, this also suggests that many regulatory events may not be reliably detectable by such technologies. Text mining of regulatory events and responses provides additional information incorporable into microarray analysis, such as prior fold-change observations and flagging genes that are regulated post-transcription. All extracted regulation and response patterns can be downloaded at the following website: www.ou.edu/microarray/ oumcf/Meta_analysis.xls.

Spatiotemporal distribution of Holocene populations in North America

PubMed Central

Chaput, Michelle A.; Kriesche, Björn; Betts, Matthew; Martindale, Andrew; Kulik, Rafal; Schmidt, Volker; Gajewski, Konrad

2015-01-01

As the Cordilleran and Laurentide Ice Sheets retreated, North America was colonized by human populations; however, the spatial patterns of subsequent population growth are unclear. Temporal frequency distributions of aggregated radiocarbon (14C) dates are used as a proxy of population size and can be used to track this expansion. The Canadian Archaeological Radiocarbon Database contains more than 35,000 14C dates and is used in this study to map the spatiotemporal demographic changes of Holocene populations in North America at a continental scale for the past 13,000 y. We use the kernel method, which converts the spatial distribution of 14C dates into estimates of population density at 500-y intervals. The resulting maps reveal temporally distinct, dynamic patterns associated with paleodemographic trends that correspond well to genetic, archaeological, and ethnohistoric evidence of human occupation. These results have implications for hypothesizing and testing migration routes into and across North America as well as the relative influence of North American populations on the evolution of the North American ecosystem. PMID:26351683

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify threshold values of indices useful to determine the end of the potential fire season due to fuel status. A weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Sardinia, Italy. Finally, impacts of future climate change on fire season length at local scale were simulated. Results confirmed that the projected climate scenarios over the Mediterranean area will determine an overall increase of the fire season length.

Changing the Spatial Scope of Attention Alters Patterns of Neural Gain in Human Cortex

PubMed Central

Garcia, Javier O.; Rungratsameetaweemana, Nuttida; Sprague, Thomas C.

2014-01-01

Over the last several decades, spatial attention has been shown to influence the activity of neurons in visual cortex in various ways. These conflicting observations have inspired competing models to account for the influence of attention on perception and behavior. Here, we used electroencephalography (EEG) to assess steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEP) in human subjects and showed that highly focused spatial attention primarily enhanced neural responses to high-contrast stimuli (response gain), whereas distributed attention primarily enhanced responses to medium-contrast stimuli (contrast gain). Together, these data suggest that different patterns of neural modulation do not reflect fundamentally different neural mechanisms, but instead reflect changes in the spatial extent of attention. PMID:24381272

A priori discretization quality metrics for distributed hydrologic modeling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hongli; Tolson, Bryan; Craig, James; Shafii, Mahyar; Basu, Nandita

2016-04-01

In distributed hydrologic modelling, a watershed is treated as a set of small homogeneous units that address the spatial heterogeneity of the watershed being simulated. The ability of models to reproduce observed spatial patterns firstly depends on the spatial discretization, which is the process of defining homogeneous units in the form of grid cells, subwatersheds, or hydrologic response units etc. It is common for hydrologic modelling studies to simply adopt a nominal or default discretization strategy without formally assessing alternative discretization levels. This approach lacks formal justifications and is thus problematic. More formalized discretization strategies are either a priori or a posteriori with respect to building and running a hydrologic simulation model. A posteriori approaches tend to be ad-hoc and compare model calibration and/or validation performance under various watershed discretizations. The construction and calibration of multiple versions of a distributed model can become a seriously limiting computational burden. Current a priori approaches are more formalized and compare overall heterogeneity statistics of dominant variables between candidate discretization schemes and input data or reference zones. While a priori approaches are efficient and do not require running a hydrologic model, they do not fully investigate the internal spatial pattern changes of variables of interest. Furthermore, the existing a priori approaches focus on landscape and soil data and do not assess impacts of discretization on stream channel definition even though its significance has been noted by numerous studies. The primary goals of this study are to (1) introduce new a priori discretization quality metrics considering the spatial pattern changes of model input data; (2) introduce a two-step discretization decision-making approach to compress extreme errors and meet user-specified discretization expectations through non-uniform discretization threshold modification. The metrics for the first time provides quantification of the routing relevant information loss due to discretization according to the relationship between in-channel routing length and flow velocity. Moreover, it identifies and counts the spatial pattern changes of dominant hydrological variables by overlaying candidate discretization schemes upon input data and accumulating variable changes in area-weighted way. The metrics are straightforward and applicable to any semi-distributed or fully distributed hydrological model with grid scales are greater than input data resolutions. The discretization metrics and decision-making approach are applied to the Grand River watershed located in southwestern Ontario, Canada where discretization decisions are required for a semi-distributed modelling application. Results show that discretization induced information loss monotonically increases as discretization gets rougher. With regards to routing information loss in subbasin discretization, multiple interesting points rather than just the watershed outlet should be considered. Moreover, subbasin and HRU discretization decisions should not be considered independently since subbasin input significantly influences the complexity of HRU discretization result. Finally, results show that the common and convenient approach of making uniform discretization decisions across the watershed domain performs worse compared to a metric informed non-uniform discretization approach as the later since is able to conserve more watershed heterogeneity under the same model complexity (number of computational units).

RURAL EDUCATION IN TRANSITION, A STUDY OF TRENDS AND PATTERNS IN LOUISIANA.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

BERTRAND, ALVIN L.; SMITH, MARION B.

POPULATION TRENDS, DEFINED AS DISTRIBUTION, COMPOSITION, AND CHANGES IN NUMBERS WERE DETERMINED IN THIS DOCUMENT FOR THE STATE OF LOUISIANA. DATA WERE GATHERED FROM PUBLICATIONS OF THE BUREAU OF THE CENSUS, THE LOUISIANA STATE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION, AND QUESTIONNAIRE RESPONSES OF HIGH SCHOOL JUNIORS AND SENIORS IN SELECTED SAMPLE SCHOOLS. THE…

Microbial communities may modify how litter quality affects potential decomposition rates as tree species migrate

Treesearch

Ashley D. Keiser; Jennifer D. Knoepp; Mark A. Bradford

2013-01-01

Background and aims Climate change alters regional plant species distributions, creating new combinations of litter species and soil communities. Biogeographic patterns in microbial communities relate to dissimilarity in microbial community function, meaning novel litters to communities may decompose differently than predicted from their chemical composition. Therefore...

A Portrait of Race and Ethnicity in California: An Assessment of Social and Economic Well-Being.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reyes, Belinda I., Ed.

This document examines differences in socioeconomic status by racial and ethnic groups in California, exploring changing patterns over time. It analyzes trends and outcomes in demography, geographic distribution, health, education, crime, labor markets, economic status, and political participation. Data on educational outcomes include: education…

Previous land use alters plant allocation and growth in forest herbs

Treesearch

Jennifer M. Fraterrigo; Monica G. Turner; Scott M. Pearson

2006-01-01

Former human practices can persistently influence forest ecosystems, particularly by altering the distribution and abundance of vegetation. Previous research has focused on the role of colonization success in governing plant community patterns in abandoned forests, but few studies have explored how changes in the performance of adult plants may contribute to...

Learning Different Light Prior Distributions for Different Contexts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kerrigan, Iona S.; Adams, Wendy J.

2013-01-01

The pattern of shading across an image can provide a rich sense of object shape. Our ability to use shading information is remarkable given the infinite possible combinations of illumination, shape and reflectance that could have produced any given image. Illumination can change dramatically across environments (e.g. indoor vs. outdoor) and times…

Wind-Induced Reconfigurations in Flexible Branched Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojo, Oluwafemi; Shoele, Kourosh

2017-11-01

Wind induced stresses are the major mechanical cause of failure in trees. We know that the branching mechanism has an important effect on the stress distribution and stability of a tree in the wind. Eloy in PRL 2011, showed that Leonardo da Vinci's original observation which states the total cross section of branches is conserved across branching nodes is the best configuration for resisting wind-induced fracture in rigid trees. However, prediction of the fracture risk and pattern of a tree is also a function of their reconfiguration capabilities and how they mitigate large wind-induced stresses. In this studies through developing an efficient numerical simulation of flexible branched trees, we explore the role of the tree flexibility on the optimal branching. Our results show that the probability of a tree breaking at any point depends on both the cross-section changes in the branching nodes and the level of tree flexibility. It is found that the branching mechanism based on Leonardo da Vinci's original observation leads to a uniform stress distribution over a wide range of flexibilities but the pattern changes for more flexible systems.

Physician Dispensing of Oxycodone and Other Commonly Used Opioids, 2000-2015, United States.

PubMed

Mack, Karin Ann; Jones, Christopher McCall; McClure, Roderick John

2018-05-01

An average of 91 people in the United States die every day from an opioid-related overdose (including prescription opioids and heroin). The direct dispensing of opioids from health care practitioner offices has been linked to opioid-related harms. The objective of this study is to describe the changing nature of the volume of this type of prescribing at the state level. This descriptive study examines the distribution of opioids by practitioners using 1999-2015 Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System data. Analyses were restricted to opioids distributed to practitioners. Amount distributed (morphine milligram equivalents [MMEs]) and number of practitioners are presented. Patterns of distribution to practitioners and the number of practitioners varied markedly by state and changed dramatically over time. Comparing 1999 with 2015, the MME distributed to dispensing practitioners decreased in 16 states and increased in 35. Most notable was the change in Florida, which saw a peak of 8.94 MMEs per 100,000 persons in 2010 (the highest distribution in all states in all years) and a low of 0.08 in 2013. This study presents the first state estimates of office-based dispensing of opioids. Increases in direct dispensing in recent years may indicate a need to monitor this practice and consider whether changes are needed. Using controlled substances data to identify high prescribers and dispensers of opioids, as well as examining overall state trends, is a foundational activity to informing the response to potentially high-risk clinical practices.

Evolutionary response of landraces to climate change in centers of crop diversity

PubMed Central

Mercer, Kristin L; Perales, Hugo R

2010-01-01

Landraces cultivated in centers of crop diversity result from past and contemporary patterns of natural and farmer-mediated evolutionary forces. Successful in situ conservation of crop genetic resources depends on continuity of these evolutionary processes. Climate change is projected to affect agricultural production, yet analyses of impacts on in situ conservation of crop genetic diversity and farmers who conserve it have been absent. How will crop landraces respond to alterations in climate? We review the roles that phenotypic plasticity, evolution, and gene flow might play in sustaining production, although we might expect erosion of genetic diversity if landrace populations or entire races lose productivity. For example, highland maize landraces in southern Mexico do not express the plasticity necessary to sustain productivity under climate change, but may evolve in response to altered conditions. The outcome for any given crop in a given region will depend on the distribution of genetic variation that affects fitness and patterns of climate change. Understanding patterns of neutral and adaptive diversity from the population to the landscape scale is essential to clarify how landraces conserved in situ will continue to evolve and how to minimize genetic erosion of this essential natural resource. PMID:25567941

Evolutionary response of landraces to climate change in centers of crop diversity.

PubMed

Mercer, Kristin L; Perales, Hugo R

2010-09-01

Landraces cultivated in centers of crop diversity result from past and contemporary patterns of natural and farmer-mediated evolutionary forces. Successful in situ conservation of crop genetic resources depends on continuity of these evolutionary processes. Climate change is projected to affect agricultural production, yet analyses of impacts on in situ conservation of crop genetic diversity and farmers who conserve it have been absent. How will crop landraces respond to alterations in climate? We review the roles that phenotypic plasticity, evolution, and gene flow might play in sustaining production, although we might expect erosion of genetic diversity if landrace populations or entire races lose productivity. For example, highland maize landraces in southern Mexico do not express the plasticity necessary to sustain productivity under climate change, but may evolve in response to altered conditions. The outcome for any given crop in a given region will depend on the distribution of genetic variation that affects fitness and patterns of climate change. Understanding patterns of neutral and adaptive diversity from the population to the landscape scale is essential to clarify how landraces conserved in situ will continue to evolve and how to minimize genetic erosion of this essential natural resource.

[Research progress in water use efficiency of plants under global climate change].

PubMed

Wang, Qing-wei; Yu, Da-pao; Dai, Li-min; Zhou, Li; Zhou, Wang-ming; Qi, Guang; Qi, Lin; Ye, Yu-jing

2010-12-01

Global climate change is one of the most concerned environmental problems in the world since the 1980s, giving significant effects on the plant productivity and the water transport and use patterns. These effects would be reflected in the water use efficiency (WUE) of individual plants, communities, and ecosystems, and ultimately, in the vegetation distribution pattern, species composition, and ecosystem structure. To study the WUE of plants would help to the understanding and forecasting of the responses of terrestrial vegetation to global climate change, and to the adoption of adaptive strategies. This paper introduced the concept of plant WUE and the corresponding measurement techniques at the scales of leaf, individual plant, community, and ecosystem, and reviewed the research progress in the effects of important climatic factors such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation pattern, nitrogen deposition, and their combination on the plant WUE, as well as the variation characteristics of plant WUE and the adaptive survival strategies of plants under different site conditions. Some problems related to plant WUE research were pointed out, and the future research directions in the context of global climate change were prospected.

Large Occurrence Patterns of New Zealand Deep Earthquakes: Characterization by Use of a Switching Poisson Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaochuan, Lu; Vere-Jones, David

2011-10-01

The paper studies the statistical properties of deep earthquakes around North Island, New Zealand. We first evaluate the catalogue coverage and completeness of deep events according to cusum (cumulative sum) statistics and earlier literature. The epicentral, depth, and magnitude distributions of deep earthquakes are then discussed. It is worth noting that strong grouping effects are observed in the epicentral distribution of these deep earthquakes. Also, although the spatial distribution of deep earthquakes does not change, their occurrence frequencies vary from time to time, active in one period, relatively quiescent in another. The depth distribution of deep earthquakes also hardly changes except for events with focal depth less than 100 km. On the basis of spatial concentration we partition deep earthquakes into several groups—the Taupo-Bay of Plenty group, the Taranaki group, and the Cook Strait group. Second-order moment analysis via the two-point correlation function reveals only very small-scale clustering of deep earthquakes, presumably limited to some hot spots only. We also suggest that some models usually used for shallow earthquakes fit deep earthquakes unsatisfactorily. Instead, we propose a switching Poisson model for the occurrence patterns of deep earthquakes. The goodness-of-fit test suggests that the time-varying activity is well characterized by a switching Poisson model. Furthermore, detailed analysis carried out on each deep group by use of switching Poisson models reveals similar time-varying behavior in occurrence frequencies in each group.

Exploring Instructive Physiological Signaling with the Bioelectric Tissue Simulation Engine

PubMed Central

Pietak, Alexis; Levin, Michael

2016-01-01

Bioelectric cell properties have been revealed as powerful targets for modulating stem cell function, regenerative response, developmental patterning, and tumor reprograming. Spatio-temporal distributions of endogenous resting potential, ion flows, and electric fields are influenced not only by the genome and external signals but also by their own intrinsic dynamics. Ion channels and electrical synapses (gap junctions) both determine, and are themselves gated by, cellular resting potential. Thus, the origin and progression of bioelectric patterns in multicellular tissues is complex, which hampers the rational control of voltage distributions for biomedical interventions. To improve understanding of these dynamics and facilitate the development of bioelectric pattern control strategies, we developed the BioElectric Tissue Simulation Engine (BETSE), a finite volume method multiphysics simulator, which predicts bioelectric patterns and their spatio-temporal dynamics by modeling ion channel and gap junction activity and tracking changes to the fundamental property of ion concentration. We validate performance of the simulator by matching experimentally obtained data on membrane permeability, ion concentration and resting potential to simulated values, and by demonstrating the expected outcomes for a range of well-known cases, such as predicting the correct transmembrane voltage changes for perturbation of single cell membrane states and environmental ion concentrations, in addition to the development of realistic transepithelial potentials and bioelectric wounding signals. In silico experiments reveal factors influencing transmembrane potential are significantly different in gap junction-networked cell clusters with tight junctions, and identify non-linear feedback mechanisms capable of generating strong, emergent, cluster-wide resting potential gradients. The BETSE platform will enable a deep understanding of local and long-range bioelectrical dynamics in tissues, and assist the development of specific interventions to achieve greater control of pattern during morphogenesis and remodeling. PMID:27458581

Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.

PubMed

Schwalm, Donelle; Epps, Clinton W; Rodhouse, Thomas J; Monahan, William B; Castillo, Jessica A; Ray, Chris; Jeffress, Mackenzie R

2016-04-01

Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nutrient addition shifts plant community composition towards earlier flowering species in some prairie ecoregions in the U.S. Central Plains.

PubMed

Biederman, Lori; Mortensen, Brent; Fay, Philip; Hagenah, Nicole; Knops, Johannes; La Pierre, Kimberly; Laungani, Ramesh; Lind, Eric; McCulley, Rebecca; Power, Sally; Seabloom, Eric; Tognetti, Pedro

2017-01-01

The distribution of flowering across the growing season is governed by each species' evolutionary history and climatic variability. However, global change factors, such as eutrophication and invasion, can alter plant community composition and thus change the distribution of flowering across the growing season. We examined three ecoregions (tall-, mixed, and short-grass prairie) across the U.S. Central Plains to determine how nutrient (nitrogen (N), phosphorus, and potassium (+micronutrient)) addition alters the temporal patterns of plant flowering traits. We calculated total community flowering potential (FP) by distributing peak-season plant cover values across the growing season, allocating each species' cover to only those months in which it typically flowers. We also generated separate FP profiles for exotic and native species and functional group. We compared the ability of the added nutrients to shift the distribution of these FP profiles (total and sub-groups) across the growing season. In all ecoregions, N increased the relative cover of both exotic species and C3 graminoids that flower in May through August. The cover of C4 graminoids decreased with added N, but the response varied by ecoregion and month. However, these functional changes only aggregated to shift the entire community's FP profile in the tall-grass prairie, where the relative cover of plants expected to flower in May and June increased and those that flower in September and October decreased with added N. The relatively low native cover in May and June may leave this ecoregion vulnerable to disturbance-induced invasion by exotic species that occupy this temporal niche. There was no change in the FP profile of the mixed and short-grass prairies with N addition as increased abundance of exotic species and C3 graminoids replaced other species that flower at the same time. In these communities a disturbance other than nutrient addition may be required to disrupt phenological patterns.

Nutrient addition shifts plant community composition towards earlier flowering species in some prairie ecoregions in the U.S. Central Plains

PubMed Central

Mortensen, Brent; Fay, Philip; Hagenah, Nicole; Knops, Johannes; La Pierre, Kimberly; Laungani, Ramesh; Lind, Eric; McCulley, Rebecca; Power, Sally; Seabloom, Eric; Tognetti, Pedro

2017-01-01

The distribution of flowering across the growing season is governed by each species’ evolutionary history and climatic variability. However, global change factors, such as eutrophication and invasion, can alter plant community composition and thus change the distribution of flowering across the growing season. We examined three ecoregions (tall-, mixed, and short-grass prairie) across the U.S. Central Plains to determine how nutrient (nitrogen (N), phosphorus, and potassium (+micronutrient)) addition alters the temporal patterns of plant flowering traits. We calculated total community flowering potential (FP) by distributing peak-season plant cover values across the growing season, allocating each species’ cover to only those months in which it typically flowers. We also generated separate FP profiles for exotic and native species and functional group. We compared the ability of the added nutrients to shift the distribution of these FP profiles (total and sub-groups) across the growing season. In all ecoregions, N increased the relative cover of both exotic species and C3 graminoids that flower in May through August. The cover of C4 graminoids decreased with added N, but the response varied by ecoregion and month. However, these functional changes only aggregated to shift the entire community’s FP profile in the tall-grass prairie, where the relative cover of plants expected to flower in May and June increased and those that flower in September and October decreased with added N. The relatively low native cover in May and June may leave this ecoregion vulnerable to disturbance-induced invasion by exotic species that occupy this temporal niche. There was no change in the FP profile of the mixed and short-grass prairies with N addition as increased abundance of exotic species and C3 graminoids replaced other species that flower at the same time. In these communities a disturbance other than nutrient addition may be required to disrupt phenological patterns. PMID:28552986

Thermal effects in nano-sized adsorbate islands growth processes at vapor deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharchenko, Vasyl O.; Kharchenko, Dmitrii O.; Dvornichenko, Alina V.

2016-02-01

We study a model of pattern formation in adsorptive systems with a local change in the surface temperature due to adsorption/desorption processes. It is found that thermal effects shrink the domain of main system parameters, when pattern formation is possible. It is shown that an increase in a surface reheat efficiency delays ordering processes. We have found that a distribution of adsorbate islands over sizes depends on relaxation and reheat processes. We have shown that the mean linear size of stationary adsorbate islands is of nano-meter range.

Urban and regional planning proposal no. Y-10-066-001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hannah, J. W.; Thomas, G. L.; Esparza, F. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. An investigation is underway to determine the applicability of ERTS-1 data to urban and regional planning problems, using data for East Central Florida. Small scale land use mapping is feasible. Urban and commercial areas are sufficiently distinguishable that ERTS-1 appears to be a useful tool for monitoring urban and commercial growth. Development patterns of cities, growth patterns of cities, and distribution and changes in certain sectors within cities can be analyzed effectively. Digital analysis methods are proving useful.

Inputs and spatial distribution patterns of Cr in Jiaozhou Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Dongfang; Miao, Zhenqing; Huang, Xinmin; Wei, Linzhen; Feng, Ming

2018-03-01

Cr pollution in marine bays has been one of the critical environmental issues, and understanding the input and spatial distribution patterns is essential to pollution control. In according to the source strengths of the major pollution sources, the input patterns of pollutants to marine bay include slight, moderate and heavy, and the spatial distribution are corresponding to three block models respectively. This paper analyzed input patterns and distributions of Cr in Jiaozhou Bay, eastern China based on investigation on Cr in surface waters during 1979-1983. Results showed that the input strengths of Cr in Jiaozhou Bay could be classified as moderate input and slight input, and the input strengths were 32.32-112.30 μg L-1 and 4.17-19.76 μg L-1, respectively. The input patterns of Cr included two patterns of moderate input and slight input, and the horizontal distributions could be defined by means of Block Model 2 and Block Model 3, respectively. In case of moderate input pattern via overland runoff, Cr contents were decreasing from the estuaries to the bay mouth, and the distribution pattern was parallel. In case of moderate input pattern via marine current, Cr contents were decreasing from the bay mouth to the bay, and the distribution pattern was parallel to circular. The Block Models were able to reveal the transferring process of various pollutants, and were helpful to understand the distributions of pollutants in marine bay.

Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

2013-01-01

The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

Charting the Course for Ocean Science in the United States for the Next Decade: An Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-26

ocean affects calcifying organisms, such as corals , with significant effects to reefs , the ecosystems they support, and their ability to pro- tect...water coral reefs , to open- ocean systems. For example, increasing ocean acidity, altered biogeochemistry, changing current patterns, loss of sea ice...for example, large swings in the populations of commercial fisheries, changes in seabird-population distributions, and coral - reef -bleaching events

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang

Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating themore » potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. In conclusion, this study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.« less

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations

DOE PAGES

Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; ...

2017-07-19

Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating themore » potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. In conclusion, this study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.« less

Ontogenetic changes in cranial vault thickness in a modern sample of Homo sapiens.

PubMed

Anzelmo, Marisol; Ventrice, Fernando; Barbeito-Andrés, Jimena; Pucciarelli, Héctor M; Sardi, Marina L

2015-01-01

This work assesses cranial vault thickness (CVT) ontogenetic changes using a computed tomography database to register thickness across multiple regions. Vault images of 143 individuals from 0 to 31 years old were analyzed by thickness semiautomatic measurements. For each individual, we obtained a thickness mean measure (TMM) and its coefficient of variation, a measure of endocranial volume (EV), the distribution of relative frequencies of thickness-relative frequency polygon, and a topographic mapping that shows the thickness arrangement through a chromatic scale. Ontogenetic changes of these variables were evaluated by different regression models (TMM vs. age, EV vs. age, TMM vs. EV) and visual comparisons between the age groups. TMM increased during ontogeny until the onset of adulthood without sex differences, but the most accelerated growth rates occur during the first 6 years of postnatal life. TMM variations were associated with EV only in infants and children, but not in later periods. The polygons showed a flattening during ontogeny, probably due to an increase in thickness variation within individuals. However, the adult pattern of thickness arrangement, with the lateral region thinner than the regions near sagittal plane, was detected from infancy. The pattern of thickness arrangement is established early in ontogeny but CVT increases and changes in distribution until adolescence. Several factors may influence CVT, such as the brain, muscles, vessels, and sutures. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effect of Climate Change on Invasion Risk of Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica Férussac, 1821: Achatinidae) in India

PubMed Central

Rekha Sarma, Roshmi; Munsi, Madhushree; Neelavara Ananthram, Aravind

2015-01-01

The Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica) is considered to be one the world’s 100 worst invasive alien species. The snail has an impact on native biodiversity, and on agricultural and horticultural crops. In India, it is known to feed on more than fifty species of native plants and agricultural crops and also outcompetes the native snails. It was introduced into India in 1847 and since then it has spread all across the country. In this paper, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the distribution pattern of Giant African Snail (GAS) under different climate change scenarios. The niche modeling results indicate that under the current climate scenario, Eastern India, peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are at high risk of invasion. The three different future climate scenarios show that there is no significant change in the geographical distribution of invasion prone areas. However, certain currently invaded areas will be more prone to invasion in the future. These regions include parts of Bihar, Southern Karnataka, parts of Gujarat and Assam. The Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands are highly vulnerable to invasion under changed climate. The Central Indian region is at low risk due to high temperature and low rainfall. An understanding of the invasion pattern can help in better management of this invasive species and also in formulating policies for its control. PMID:26618637

Effect of Climate Change on Invasion Risk of Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica Férussac, 1821: Achatinidae) in India.

PubMed

Sarma, Roshmi Rekha; Munsi, Madhushree; Ananthram, Aravind Neelavara

2015-01-01

The Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica) is considered to be one the world's 100 worst invasive alien species. The snail has an impact on native biodiversity, and on agricultural and horticultural crops. In India, it is known to feed on more than fifty species of native plants and agricultural crops and also outcompetes the native snails. It was introduced into India in 1847 and since then it has spread all across the country. In this paper, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the distribution pattern of Giant African Snail (GAS) under different climate change scenarios. The niche modeling results indicate that under the current climate scenario, Eastern India, peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are at high risk of invasion. The three different future climate scenarios show that there is no significant change in the geographical distribution of invasion prone areas. However, certain currently invaded areas will be more prone to invasion in the future. These regions include parts of Bihar, Southern Karnataka, parts of Gujarat and Assam. The Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands are highly vulnerable to invasion under changed climate. The Central Indian region is at low risk due to high temperature and low rainfall. An understanding of the invasion pattern can help in better management of this invasive species and also in formulating policies for its control.

Speciation of lipids and humus-like colloidal compounds in a forest soil reclaimed with municipal solid waste compost.

PubMed

Zancada, M Cristina; Almendros, Gonzalo; Sanz, Jesús; Román, Román

2004-02-01

The progressive transformations of lipid and humus-like fractions in soil after massive input (400 Mg ha(-1)) of urban waste have been studied during an 87-week experiment in field plots of a degraded Calcic Regosol in Central Spain. Structural changes in the macromolecular fractions were small when compared with the qualitative and quantitative changes in lipid composition. The intense depletion of the lipid fraction with time and the decrease of the humic acid to fulvic acid ratio were the most significant quantitative indices of the compost transformation in soil. Changes in soil lipid fractions were especially noted in relation to their speciation status and distribution patterns (carbon preference index and relative chain length). Three subfractions were considered: (I) direct extraction with petroleum ether, (II) liquid-liquid extraction after soil treatment with 2 M H3PO4 and (III) after soil treatment with 0.1 M NaOH. Although lipid concentration tends to decrease with time, lipids in the fraction tightly bonded to soil (III) remained qualitatively and quantitatively constant in the course of the field experiment. Gas chromatographic-mass spectrometric analyses showed that the more stable the association of lipid to the soil matrix, the fewer the changes observed in the distribution pattern of the fatty acids during the progressive transformation stages.

Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

2015-04-01

Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare traditional vulnerability distributions with more recent conceptualisation of risks, more research should be devoted to global assessments of climate change risk distributions.

Ground-based studies of ionospheric convection associated with substorm expansion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kamide, Y.; Richmond, A. D.; Emery, B. A.; Hutchins, C. F.; Ahn, B.-H.; De La Beaujardiere, O.; Foster, J. C.; Heelis, R. A.; Kroehl, H. W.; Rich, F. J.

1994-01-01

The instantaneous patterns of electric fields and currents in the high-latitude ionosphere are deduced by combining satellite and radar measurements of the ionospheric drift velocity, along with ground-based magnetometer observations for October 25, 1981. The period under study was characterized by a relatively stable southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), so that the obtained electric field patterns do reflect, in general, the state of sustained and enhanced plasma convection in the magnetosphere. During one of the satellite passes, however, an intense westward electrojet caused by a substorm intruded into the satellite (DE2) and radar (Chatanika, Alaska) field of view in the premidnight sector, providing a unique opportunity to differentiate the enhanced convection and substorm expansion fields. The distributions of the calculated electric potential for the expansion and maximum phases of the substorm show the first clear evidence of the coexistence of two physically different systems in the global convection pattern. The changes in the convection pattern during the substorm indicate that the large-scale potential distributions are indeed of general two-cell patterns representing the southward IMF status, but the night-morning cell has two positive peaks, one in the midnight sector and the other in the late morning hours, corresponding to the substorm expansion and the convection enhancement, respectively.

Effects of land cover and regional climate variations on long-term spatiotemporal changes in sagebrush ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2012-01-01

This research investigated the effects of climate and land cover change on variation in sagebrush ecosystems. We combined information of multi-year sagebrush distribution derived from multitemporal remote sensing imagery and climate data to study the variation patterns of sagebrush ecosystems under different potential disturbances. We found that less than 40% of sagebrush ecosystem changes involved abrupt changes directly caused by landscape transformations and over 60% of the variations involved gradual changes directly related to climatic perturbations. The primary increases in bare ground and declines in sagebrush vegetation abundance were significantly correlated with the 1996-2006 decreasing trend in annual precipitation.

Highly sensitive distributed birefringence measurements based on a two-pulse interrogation of a dynamic Brillouin grating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto, Marcelo A.; Denisov, Andrey; Angulo-Vinuesa, Xabier; Martin-Lopez, Sonia; Thévenaz, Luc; Gonzalez-Herraez, Miguel

2017-04-01

A method for distributed birefringence measurements is proposed based on the interference pattern generated by the interrogation of a dynamic Brillouin grating (DBG) using two short consecutive optical pulses. Compared to existing DBG interrogation techniques, the method here offers an improved sensitivity to birefringence changes thanks to the interferometric effect generated by the reflections of the two pulses. Experimental results demonstrate the possibility to obtain the longitudinal birefringence profile of a 20 m-long Panda fibre with an accuracy of 10-8 using 16 averages and 30 cm spatial resolution. The method enables sub-metric and highly-accurate distributed temperature and strain sensing.

Stress Distribution in a Rigidly Clamped Composite Plate with Locally Curved Structures under Forced Vibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamanov, A. D.

2001-09-01

A problem on the forced vibrations of a rectangular composite plate with locally curved structures is formulated using the exact three-dimensional equations of continuum mechanics and continuum theory. A technique for numerical solution of the problem is developed based on the semianalytic finite-element method. Numerical results are given for the stress distribution in the plate under forced vibrations. The results obtained are analyzed to study the effect of the curvature in the structure of the plate on the distribution of stress amplitudes. It is shown that the curvatures change significantly the stress pattern under either static or dynamic loading

Concordant Biogeographic Patterns among Multiple Taxonomic Groups in the Mexican Freshwater Biota

PubMed Central

Quiroz-Martínez, Benjamín; Álvarez, Fernando; Espinosa, Héctor; Salgado-Maldonado, Guillermo

2014-01-01

In this paper we analyse the degree of concordance in species richness and taxonomic distinctness (diversity) patterns among different freshwater taxonomic groups in order to test three long held patterns described in Mexican freshwater biogeography: 1. The aquatic biota of Mexico includes two distinct faunas, a rich Neotropical component in the south and a south-eastern region and a less rich Nearctic component towards central and northern latitudes of the country. 2. A hotspot of species richness and diversity has been recorded in the Usumacinta, including the Yucatan Peninsula. 3. The presence of two distinct biotas in Mexico, an eastern one distributed along the Gulf of Mexico slope, and a western one associated to the Pacific versant. We use species richness and taxonomic distinctness to explore patterns of diversity and how these patterns change between zoogeographical regions. This paper points out a clear separation between Neotropical and Nearctic drainage basins but also between eastern (Gulf of Mexico) and western (Pacific) drainage basins. Present data gives additional empirical support from freshwater biota for three long held beliefs regarding distributional patterns of the Mexican biota. The neotropical basins of Mexico are generally host to a richest and more diversified fauna, that includes more families, genera and species, compared to the less rich and less diverse fauna in the nearctic basins. PMID:25136979

Kinetics of particle deposition at heterogeneous surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stojiljković, D. Lj.; Vrhovac, S. B.

2017-12-01

The random sequential adsorption (RSA) approach is used to analyze adsorption of spherical particles of fixed diameter d0 on nonuniform surfaces covered by square cells arranged in a square lattice pattern. To characterize such pattern two dimensionless parameters are used: the cell size α and the cell-cell separation β, measured in terms of the particle diameter d0. Adsorption is assumed to occur if the particle (projected) center lies within a cell area. We focus on the kinetics of deposition process in the case when no more than a single disk can be placed onto any square cell (α < 1 /√{ 2 } ≈ 0 . 707). We find that the asymptotic approach of the coverage fraction θ(t) to the jamming limit θJ is algebraic if the parameters α and β satisfy the simple condition, β + α / 2 < 1. If this condition is not satisfied, the late time kinetics of deposition process is not consistent with the power law behavior. However, if the geometry of the pattern approaches towards ;noninteracting conditions; (β > 1), when adsorption on each cell can be decoupled, approach of the coverage fraction θ(t) to θJ becomes closer to the exponential law. Consequently, changing the pattern parameters in the present model allows to interpolate the deposition kinetics between the continuum limit and the lattice-like behavior. Structural properties of the jammed-state coverings are studied in terms of the radial distribution function g(r) and spatial distribution of particles inside the cell. Various, non-trivial spatial distributions are observed depending on the geometry of the pattern.

Randomly displaced phase distribution design and its advantage in page-data recording of Fourier transform holograms.

PubMed

Emoto, Akira; Fukuda, Takashi

2013-02-20

For Fourier transform holography, an effective random phase distribution with randomly displaced phase segments is proposed for obtaining a smooth finite optical intensity distribution in the Fourier transform plane. Since unitary phase segments are randomly distributed in-plane, the blanks give various spatial frequency components to an image, and thus smooth the spectrum. Moreover, by randomly changing the phase segment size, spike generation from the unitary phase segment size in the spectrum can be reduced significantly. As a result, a smooth spectrum including sidebands can be formed at a relatively narrow extent. The proposed phase distribution sustains the primary functions of a random phase mask for holographic-data recording and reconstruction. Therefore, this distribution is expected to find applications in high-density holographic memory systems, replacing conventional random phase mask patterns.

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Denker, Tim Spaanheden; Floeter, Jens; Fock, Heino O.; Sguotti, Camilla; Stäbler, Moritz; Otto, Saskia A.; Möllmann, Christian

2017-01-01

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs. PMID:29136658

A comparison of regional flood frequency analysis approaches in a simulation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, D.; Laio, F.

2016-07-01

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve at ungauged (or scarcely gauged) sites. Different RFA approaches exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest, but it is not clear in the literature if a specific method systematically outperforms the others. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison by building up a virtual environment based on synthetically generated data. The considered regional approaches include: (i) a unique regional curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model where homogeneous subregions are determined through cluster analysis; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially smooth estimation procedure where the parameters of the regional model vary continuously along the space. Virtual environments are generated considering different patterns of heterogeneity, including step change and smooth variations. If the region is heterogeneous, with the parent distribution changing continuously within the region, the spatially smooth regional approach outperforms the others, with overall errors 10-50% lower than the other methods. In the case of a step-change, the spatially smooth and clustering procedures perform similarly if the heterogeneity is moderate, while clustering procedures work better when the step-change is severe. To extend our findings, an extensive sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of sample length, number of virtual stations, return period of the predicted quantile, variability of the scale parameter of the parent distribution, number of predictor variables and different parent distribution. Overall, the spatially smooth approach appears as the most robust approach as its performances are more stable across different patterns of heterogeneity, especially when short records are considered.

Nanoseismicity and picoseismicity rate changes from static stress triggering caused by a Mw 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozłowska, Maria; Orlecka-Sikora, Beata; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Boettcher, Margaret S.; Dresen, Georg

2015-01-01

Static stress changes following large earthquakes are known to affect the rate and distribution of aftershocks, yet this process has not been thoroughly investigated for nanoseismicity and picoseismicity at centimeter length scales. Here we utilize a unique data set of M ≥ -3.4 earthquakes following a Mw 2.2 earthquake in Mponeng gold mine, South Africa, that was recorded during a quiet interval in the mine to investigate if rate- and state-based modeling is valid for shallow, mining-induced seismicity. We use Dieterich's (1994) rate- and state-dependent formulation for earthquake productivity, which requires estimation of four parameters: (1) Coulomb stress changes due to the main shock, (2) the reference seismicity rate, (3) frictional resistance parameter, and (4) the duration of aftershock relaxation time. Comparisons of the modeled spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity based on two different source models with the observed distribution show that while the spatial patterns match well, the rate of modeled aftershocks is lower than the observed rate. To test our model, we used three metrics of the goodness-of-fit evaluation. The null hypothesis, of no significant difference between modeled and observed seismicity rates, was only rejected in the depth interval containing the main shock. Results show that mining-induced earthquakes may be followed by a stress relaxation expressed through aftershocks located on the rupture plane and in regions of positive Coulomb stress change. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the main features of the temporal and spatial distributions of very small, mining-induced earthquakes can be successfully determined using rate- and state-based stress modeling.

Abundance and Distribution Patterns of Thunnus albacares in Isla del Coco National Park through Predictive Habitat Suitability Models

PubMed Central

Gonzáles-Andrés, Cristina; F. M. Lopes, Priscila; Cortés, Jorge; Sánchez-Lizaso, José Luis; Pennino, Maria Grazia

2016-01-01

Information on the distribution and habitat preferences of ecologically and commercially important species is essential for their management and protection. This is especially important as climate change, pollution, and overfishing change the structure and functioning of pelagic ecosystems. In this study, we used Bayesian hierarchical spatial-temporal models to map the Essential Fish Habitats of the Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the waters around Isla del Coco National Park, Pacific Costa Rica, based on independent underwater observations from 1993 to 2013. We assessed if observed changes in the distribution and abundance of this species are related with habitat characteristics, fishing intensity or more extreme climatic events, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and changes on the average sea surface temperature. Yellowfin tuna showed a decreasing abundance trend in the sampled period, whereas higher abundances were found in shallow and warmer waters, with high concentration of chlorophyll-a, and in surrounding seamounts. In addition, El Niño Southern Oscillation events did not seem to affect Yellowfin tuna distribution and abundance. Understanding the habitat preferences of this species, using approaches as the one developed here, may help design integrated programs for more efficient management of vulnerable species. PMID:27973538

Abundance and Distribution Patterns of Thunnus albacares in Isla del Coco National Park through Predictive Habitat Suitability Models.

PubMed

Gonzáles-Andrés, Cristina; F M Lopes, Priscila; Cortés, Jorge; Sánchez-Lizaso, José Luis; Pennino, Maria Grazia

2016-01-01

Information on the distribution and habitat preferences of ecologically and commercially important species is essential for their management and protection. This is especially important as climate change, pollution, and overfishing change the structure and functioning of pelagic ecosystems. In this study, we used Bayesian hierarchical spatial-temporal models to map the Essential Fish Habitats of the Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the waters around Isla del Coco National Park, Pacific Costa Rica, based on independent underwater observations from 1993 to 2013. We assessed if observed changes in the distribution and abundance of this species are related with habitat characteristics, fishing intensity or more extreme climatic events, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and changes on the average sea surface temperature. Yellowfin tuna showed a decreasing abundance trend in the sampled period, whereas higher abundances were found in shallow and warmer waters, with high concentration of chlorophyll-a, and in surrounding seamounts. In addition, El Niño Southern Oscillation events did not seem to affect Yellowfin tuna distribution and abundance. Understanding the habitat preferences of this species, using approaches as the one developed here, may help design integrated programs for more efficient management of vulnerable species.

Deriving field-based species sensitivity distributions (f-SSDs) from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs).

PubMed

Schipper, Aafke M; Posthuma, Leo; de Zwart, Dick; Huijbregts, Mark A J

2014-12-16

Quantitative relationships between species richness and single environmental factors, also called species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), are helpful to understand and predict biodiversity patterns, identify environmental management options and set environmental quality standards. However, species richness is typically dependent on a variety of environmental factors, implying that it is not straightforward to quantify SSDs from field monitoring data. Here, we present a novel and flexible approach to solve this, based on the method of stacked species distribution modeling. First, a species distribution model (SDM) is established for each species, describing its probability of occurrence in relation to multiple environmental factors. Next, the predictions of the SDMs are stacked along the gradient of each environmental factor with the remaining environmental factors at fixed levels. By varying those fixed levels, our approach can be used to investigate how field-based SSDs for a given environmental factor change in relation to changing confounding influences, including for example optimal, typical, or extreme environmental conditions. This provides an asset in the evaluation of potential management measures to reach good ecological status.

[Effects of land use change on landscape pattern vulnerability in Yinchuan Basin, Northwest China].

PubMed

Ren, Zhi-yuan; Zhang, Han

2016-01-01

Landscape pattern vulnerability reflects the instability and sensitivity of ecological system to external disturbances and helps to understand the status and trend of ecological environment. This paper used landscape sensitivity index and landscape adaptability index to construct the landscape pattern vulnerability index of Yinchuan Basin, and got the distribution of the landscape pattern vulnerability in 2001 and 2013. Our study explored the effect of the land use degree composite index, the integrated land use dynamic degree, the importance index of land use change and various types of land transfer on landscape pattern vulnerability. Results showed that the land use degree composite index was mainly caused by the increase of the arable land, forest and the construction land. The higher proportion of the arable land or forest, the lower the vulnerability was, and the construction land had the opposite effect. With the increase of integrated land use dynamic degree, the construction land significantly increased the vulnerability, followed by grassland, and the forest significantly decreased the vulnerability, followed by the arable land. As the importance index of land use change increasing, the arable land could significantly decrease the vulnerability, followed by the forest, the grassland had a weaker trend with no obvious pattern, and the construction land significantly increased the vulnerability. When the arable land, forest and the grassland were the maintypes of land use transfer, the increasing proportion of the construction land increased the vulnerability. When the construction land was the main type of land use transfer, the grassland and forest improved the vulnerability and the arable land had the opposite effect. Changes in the number of land use types influenced the spatial structure of land use to a certain extent, which could offer a reference on using and developing the land resources scientifically. The ternary diagram could reflect the impact of various types of and use change on the landscape vulnerability, which diagram enriched the content of the research on the land use and change.