Notes on the Changing Nature of Popular French.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curnow, Maureen Cheney

This paper provides examples of a variety of phonological, orthographical, and morphological changes in current popular French are noted. They include: dropping of silent vowels in spelling, particularly in advertising and product names; changes in the pronunciation of vowels due to manipulation for product names; combinations of otherwise…

Managed Relocation of Species: Noah's Ark or Pandora's Box?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safford, Hugh D.; Hellmann, Jessica J.; McLachlan, Jason; Sax, Dov F.; Schwartz, Mark W.

2009-01-01

Assisted Migration: Evaluating a New Strategy for Species Conservation; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 1-3 August 2008; The world's human population is growing rapidly. Annually we may now move more earth than natural geological processes, and our dependence on fossil fuels is causing wholesale changes in climate and many ecosystem processes. Although human impacts on the globe have long had major consequences for the Earth's other inhabitants, the current combination of massive habitat change and rapid climate change poses an especially daunting challenge for many species. Rates of anthropogenic global change, from habitat alteration to modifications of the atmosphere, are so high that many species do not possess the capacity to ``track'' these changes through natural dispersal. In addition, ``humanized'' landscapes are now so pervasive in some parts of the globe that natural dispersal corridors have all but completely disappeared.

Ad hoc committee on global climate issues: Annual report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.; Hanson, B.M.B.

2000-01-01

The AAPG Ad Hoc Committee on Global Climate Issues has studied the supposition of human-induced climate change since the committee's inception in January 1998. This paper details the progress and findings of the committee through June 1999. At that time there had been essentially no geologic input into the global climate change debate. The following statements reflect the current state of climate knowledge from the geologic perspective as interpreted by the majority of the committee membership. The committee recognizes that new data could change its conclusions. The earth's climate is constantly changing owing to natural variability in earth processes. Natural climate variability over recent geological time is greater than reasonable estimates of potential human-induced greenhouse gas changes. Because no tool is available to test the supposition of human-induced climate change and the range of natural variability is so great, there is no discernible human influence on global climate at this time.

Childhood and Family in the 21st Century: Preparing for an Unknown Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gammage, Philip

This paper examines the importance of children's early experience and its implications for the future. The paper notes three important societal changes--changes in women's roles, changes in the concept of marriage, and changes in the nature of childhood--and discusses the factors underlying these trends. Current research suggests that the…

Hierarchical photonic structured stimuli-responsive materials as high-performance colorimetric sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Tao; Zhu, Shenmin; Chen, Zhixin; Wang, Wanlin; Zhang, Wang; Zhang, Di

2016-05-01

Hierarchical photonic structures in nature are of special interest because they can be used as templates for fabrication of stimuli-responsive photonic crystals (PCs) with unique structures beyond man-made synthesis. The current stimuli-responsive PCs templated directly from natural PCs showed a very weak external stimuli response and poor durability due to the limitations of natural templates. Herein, we tackle this problem by chemically coating functional polymers, polyacrylamide, on butterfly wing scales which have hierarchical photonic structures. As a result of the combination of the strong water absorption properties of the polyacrylamide and the PC structures of the butterfly wing scales, the designed materials demonstrated excellent humidity responsive properties and a tremendous colour change. The colour change is induced by the refractive index change which is in turn due to the swollen nature of the polymer when the relative humidity changes. The butterfly wing scales also showed an excellent durability which is due to the chemical bonds formed between the polymer and wing scales. The synthesis strategy provides an avenue for the promising applications of stimuli-responsive PCs with hierarchical structures.Hierarchical photonic structures in nature are of special interest because they can be used as templates for fabrication of stimuli-responsive photonic crystals (PCs) with unique structures beyond man-made synthesis. The current stimuli-responsive PCs templated directly from natural PCs showed a very weak external stimuli response and poor durability due to the limitations of natural templates. Herein, we tackle this problem by chemically coating functional polymers, polyacrylamide, on butterfly wing scales which have hierarchical photonic structures. As a result of the combination of the strong water absorption properties of the polyacrylamide and the PC structures of the butterfly wing scales, the designed materials demonstrated excellent humidity responsive properties and a tremendous colour change. The colour change is induced by the refractive index change which is in turn due to the swollen nature of the polymer when the relative humidity changes. The butterfly wing scales also showed an excellent durability which is due to the chemical bonds formed between the polymer and wing scales. The synthesis strategy provides an avenue for the promising applications of stimuli-responsive PCs with hierarchical structures. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c6nr01875k

Climate-smart conservation: putting adaption principles into practice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, Bruce A.; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda

2014-01-01

Climate change already is having significant impacts on the nation’s species and ecosystems, and these effects are projected to increase considerably over time. As a result, climate change is now a primary lens through which conservation and natural resource management must be viewed. How should we prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change on wildlife and their habitats? What should we be doing differently in light of these climatic shifts, and what actions continue to make sense? Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice offers guidance for designing and carrying out conservation in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Traditionally, conservationists have focused their efforts on protecting and managing systems to maintain their current state, or to restore degraded systems back to a historical state regarded as more desirable. Conservation planners and practitioners will need to adopt forward-looking goals and implement strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to current and future climatic changes, and the associated impacts on natural systems and human communities—an emerging discipline known as climate change adaptation. The field of climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. Although there is increasing attention focused on the subject, much of the guidance developed to date has been general in nature, concentrating on high-level principles rather than specific actions. It is against this backdrop that this guide was prepared as a means for helping put adaptation principles into practice, and for moving adaptation from planning to action.

Investigating influences on current community pharmacy practice at micro, meso, and macro levels.

PubMed

Hermansyah, Andi; Sainsbury, Erica; Krass, Ines

The nature of Australian community pharmacy is continually evolving, raising the need to explore the current situation in order to understand the potential impact of any changes. Although community pharmacy has the potential to play a greater role in health care, it is currently not meeting this potential. To investigate the nature of the contemporary practice of community pharmacy in Australia and examine the potential missed opportunities for role expansion in health care. In-depth semi-structured interviews with a wide-range of key stakeholders within and beyond community pharmacy circles were conducted. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analyzed for emerging themes. Twenty-seven key informants across Eastern half of Australia were interviewed between December 2014 and August 2015. Several key elements of the current situation representing the social, economic and policy context of community pharmacy have been identified. These elements operate interdependently, influence micro, meso and macro levels of community pharmacy operation and are changing in the current climate. Community pharmacy has untapped potential in primary health care, but it has been slow to change to meet opportunities available in the current situation. As the current situation is complex, interrelated and dynamic with often unintended and unpredictable consequences, this paper suggests that policy makers to consider the micro, meso and macro levels of community pharmacy operation when making significant policy changes. The framework proposed in this study can be a helpful tool to analyze the processes operating at these three levels and their influences on practice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

77 FR 63324 - Notice of Certain Operating Cost Adjustment Factors for 2013

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-16

...: Energy Information Agency, Natural Gas, Residential Energy Price, 2010-2011 annual prices in dollars per.... The best current price data sources for the nine cost categories were used in calculating annual change factors. State-level data for fuel oil, electricity, and natural gas from Department of Energy...

Career Development Programs in the Workplace. Information Series No. 333.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slavenski, Lynn; Buckner, Marilyn

A number of factors drive the current trend toward career development in the workplace. They include the need to predict personnel needs, social and demographic trends, changing nature of work, changing types of jobs, equity, productivity, technological change, and organizational philosophies. Career development is important at every step in the…

Looking back to move forward: using history, discourse and text in medical education research: AMEE guide no. 73.

PubMed

Kuper, Ayelet; Whitehead, Cynthia; Hodges, Brian David

2013-01-01

As medical education research continues to diversify methodologically and theoretically, medical education researchers have been increasingly willing to challenge taken-for-granted assumptions about the form, content and function of medical education. In this AMEE guide we describe historical, discourse and text analysis approaches that can help researchers and educators question the inevitability of things that are currently seen as 'natural'. Why is such questioning important? By articulating our assumptions and interrogating the 'naturalness' of the status quo, one can then begin to ask why things are the way they are. Researchers can, for example, ask whether the models of medical education organization and delivery that currently seem 'natural' to them have been developed in order to provide the most benefit to students or patients--or whether they have, rather, been developed in ways that provide power to faculty members, medical schools or the medical profession as a whole. An understanding of the interplay of practices and power is a valuable tool for opening up the field to new possibilities for better medical education. The recognition that our current models, rather than being 'natural', were created in particular historical contexts for any number of contingent reasons leads inexorably to the possibility of change. For if our current ways of doing things are not, in fact, inevitable, not only can they be questioned, they can be made better; they can changed in ways that are attentive to whom they benefit, are congruent with our current beliefs about best practice and may lead to the production of better doctors.

Evaluating the impact of irrigation on surface water - groundwater interaction and stream temperature in an agricultural watershed.

PubMed

Essaid, Hedeff I; Caldwell, Rodney R

2017-12-01

Changes in groundwater discharge to streams caused by irrigation practices can influence stream temperature. Observations along two currently flood-irrigated reaches in the 640-square-kilometer upper Smith River watershed, an important agricultural and recreational fishing area in west-central Montana, showed a downstream temperature decrease resulting from groundwater discharge to the stream. A watershed-scale coupled surface water and groundwater flow model was used to examine changes in streamflow, groundwater discharge to the stream and stream temperature resulting from irrigation practices. The upper Smith River watershed was used to develop the model framework including watershed climate, topography, hydrography, vegetation, soil properties and current irrigation practices. Model results were used to compare watershed streamflow, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to the stream for three scenarios: natural, pre-irrigation conditions (PreIrr); current irrigation practices involving mainly stream diversion for flood and sprinkler irrigation (IrrCurrent); and a hypothetical scenario with only groundwater supplying sprinkler irrigation (IrrGW). Irrigation increased groundwater recharge relative to natural PreIrr conditions because not all applied water was removed by crop evapotranspiration. Groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream increased relative to natural PreIrr conditions when the source of irrigation water was mainly stream diversion as in the IrrCurrent scenario. The hypothetical IrrGW scenario, in which groundwater withdrawals were the sole source of irrigation water, resulted in widespread lowering of the water table and associated decreases in groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream. A mixing analysis using model predicted groundwater discharge along the reaches suggests that stream diversion and flood irrigation, represented in the IrrCurrent scenario, has led to cooling of stream temperatures relative to natural PreIrr conditions improving fish thermal habitat. However, the decrease in groundwater discharge in the IrrGW scenario resulting from large-scale groundwater withdrawal for irrigation led to warmer than natural stream temperatures and possible degradation of fish habitat. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluating the impact of irrigation on surface water – groundwater interaction and stream temperature in an agricultural watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Essaid, Hedeff I.; Caldwell, Rodney R.

2017-01-01

Changes in groundwater discharge to streams caused by irrigation practices can influence stream temperature. Observations along two currently flood-irrigated reaches in the 640-square-kilometer upper Smith River watershed, an important agricultural and recreational fishing area in west-central Montana, showed a downstream temperature decrease resulting from groundwater discharge to the stream. A watershed-scale coupled surface water and groundwater flow model was used to examine changes in streamflow, groundwater discharge to the stream and stream temperature resulting from irrigation practices. The upper Smith River watershed was used to develop the model framework including watershed climate, topography, hydrography, vegetation, soil properties and current irrigation practices. Model results were used to compare watershed streamflow, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to the stream for three scenarios: natural, pre-irrigation conditions (PreIrr); current irrigation practices involving mainly stream diversion for flood and sprinkler irrigation (IrrCurrent); and a hypothetical scenario with only groundwater supplying sprinkler irrigation (IrrGW). Irrigation increased groundwater recharge relative to natural PreIrr conditions because not all applied water was removed by crop evapotranspiration. Groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream increased relative to natural PreIrr conditions when the source of irrigation water was mainly stream diversion as in the IrrCurrent scenario. The hypothetical IrrGW scenario, in which groundwater withdrawals were the sole source of irrigation water, resulted in widespread lowering of the water table and associated decreases in groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream. A mixing analysis using model predicted groundwater discharge along the reaches suggests that stream diversion and flood irrigation, represented in the IrrCurrent scenario, has led to cooling of stream temperatures relative to natural PreIrr conditions improving fish thermal habitat. However, the decrease in groundwater discharge in the IrrGW scenario resulting from large-scale groundwater withdrawal for irrigation led to warmer than natural stream temperatures and possible degradation of fish habitat.

Teaching Math Online: Current Practices in Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akdemir, Omur

2011-01-01

Changing nature of student population, developments in technology, and insufficient number of traditional universities have made online courses popular around the globe. This study was designed to investigate the current practices of teaching mathematics online in Turkish Universities through a qualitative inquiry. The snowball sampling method was…

Observational changes to the natural flow regime in Lee Creek in relation to altered precipitation patterns and its implication for fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gatlin, Michael R.; Long, James M.; Turton, Donald J.

2015-01-01

The natural flow regime is important for structuring streams and their resident ichthyofauna and alterations to this regime can have cascading consequences. We sought to determine if changes in hydrology could be attributed to changes in precipitation in a minimally altered watershed (Lee Creek). The stream flow regime was analyzed using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) software, and data from a nearby climate station were used to summarize concurrent precipitation patterns. We discovered that Lee Creek hydrology had become flashier (i.e., increased frequency of extreme events of shorter duration) since 1992 coincident with changes in precipitation patterns. Specifically, our results show fewer but more intense rain events within the Lee Creek watershed. Our research provides evidence that climate-induced changes to the natural flow regime are currently underway and additional research on its effects on the fish community is warranted.

Qualitative Analysis of Organizational Change in One U.S. Dental School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crain, Geralyn Dell

2010-01-01

Currently, there is need for change in the way that dental schools in the United States educate their students to keep pace with the rapidly changing nature of the profession and to better address societal needs. Despite a well-documented change agenda put forth by individual authors and agencies both within and outside of dental education,…

HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

2018-03-01

The influence of social and economic change on the consequences of natural hazards has been a matter of much interest recently. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, high-resolution data on historical changes in land use, population, or assets available to study this topic. Here, we present the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) database, which contains two parts: (1) HANZE-Exposure with maps for 37 countries and territories from 1870 to 2020 in 100 m resolution and (2) HANZE-Events, a compilation of past disasters with information on dates, locations, and losses, currently limited to floods only. The database was constructed using high-resolution maps of present land use and population, a large compilation of historical statistics, and relatively simple disaggregation techniques and rule-based land use reallocation schemes. Data encompassed in HANZE allow one to "normalize" information on losses due to natural hazards by taking into account inflation as well as changes in population, production, and wealth. This database of past events currently contains 1564 records (1870-2016) of flash, river, coastal, and compound floods. The HANZE database is freely available at https://data.4tu.nl/repository/collection:HANZE.

75 FR 75959 - Notice of Intent: To Request a Revision of a Currently Approved Information Collection

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-07

..., and entities. These contracts provide for making land use changes and installing conservation measures and practices to conserve, develop, and use the soil, water, and related natural resources on private... ranching community to conserve and sustain our natural resources on privately owned land. The purpose of...

The Dysfunctional Nature of Political Systems in University Administration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gunn, Bruce

This paper argues that the rapid influx of information technology into society requires a change in university administration from the current political system to a computer based management system for higher productivity. The paper describes the dysfunctional nature of the political system of management in its lack of full accountability. The…

Controlling Your Environment and Yourself: Implications for Career Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Converse, Patrick D.; Pathak, Jaya; DePaul-Haddock, Anne Marie; Gotlib, Tomer; Merbedone, Matthew

2012-01-01

Given the complex and rapidly changing nature of the current work environment, individuals' capabilities to effectively influence their environment and regulate their behavior may be critical to career success. Drawing from the model of emergent interactive agency (Bandura, 1989), the current research examines this perspective, focusing on…

Conceptual Change in Understanding the Nature of Science Learning: An Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiBenedetto, Christina M.

This study is the first of its kind to explore the thoughts, beliefs, attitudes and values of secondary educators as they experience conceptual change in their understanding of the nature of science learning vis a vis the Framework for K-12 Science Education published by the National Research Council. The study takes aim at the existing gap between the vision for science learning as an active process of inquiry and current pedagogical practices in K-12 science classrooms. For students to understand and explain everyday science ideas and succeed in science studies and careers, the means by which they learn science must change. Focusing on this change, the study explores the significance of educator attitudes, beliefs and values to science learning through interpretive phenomenological analysis around the central question, "In what ways do educators understand and articulate attitudes and beliefs toward the nature of science learning?" The study further explores the questions, "How do educators experience changes in their understanding of the nature of science learning?" and "How do educators believe these changes influence their pedagogical practice?" Study findings converge on four conceptions that science learning: is the action of inquiry; is a visible process initiated by both teacher and learner; values student voice and changing conceptions is science learning. These findings have implications for the primacy of educator beliefs, attitudes and values in reform efforts, science teacher leadership and the explicit instruction of both Nature of Science and conceptual change in educator preparation programs. This study supports the understanding that the nature of science learning is cognitive and affective conceptual change. Keywords: conceptual change, educator attitudes and beliefs, framework for K-12 science education, interpretive phenomenological analysis, nature of science learning, next generation science standards, science professional development, secondary science education.

Seventy years of forest growth and community dynamics in an undisturbed northern hardwood forest

Treesearch

Jennifer Pontius; Joshua M. Halman; Paul G. Schaberg

2016-01-01

Long-term forest inventories provide a unique opportunity to quantify changes in forest structure and evaluate how changes compare with current stand development models. An examination of a 70 year record at the Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, indicated that although species abundances have primarily changed as expected under natural succession, some...

Climate change effects in El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico, and the Caribbean region

Treesearch

Lisa Nicole Jennings; Jamison Douglas; Emrys Treasure; Grizelle González

2014-01-01

Understanding the current and expected future conditions of natural resources under a changing climate is essential to making informed management decisions. However, the ever increasing volume of useful scientific information about climate change makes it difficult for managers and planners to effectively sort through and apply the emerging science. This report...

FRAMEWORK TO EVALUATE CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS TO THREATENED AND ENDANGERED SPECIES

EPA Science Inventory

Wildlife species listed as Threatened or Endangered under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (T&E species) suffer a significant risk of extinction in North America due to the adverse effects of current natural or anthropogenic stressors. Climate change, either acting alone or by ...

Natural Products for Cancer Prevention: Clinical Update 2016.

PubMed

Sanders, Kathleen; Moran, Zelda; Shi, Zaixing; Paul, Rachel; Greenlee, Heather

2016-08-01

To present a clinical update of natural products for cancer prevention and provide oncology nurses with an evidence-based review of natural products for patient counseling and education. Clinical trials published in PubMed. In the past 4 years since the publication of the original review there have been minimal changes in the conclusions of the published literature on the use of natural products for cancer prevention. To date, clinical trials have not demonstrated conclusive benefit of using natural products for cancer prevention, and current guidelines do not recommend their use. This review provides an update on published and ongoing trials and can serve as an updated resource for nurses. Evidence-based natural products databases can help nurses stay current with the scientific literature and be effective educators and health coaches for their patients, who can be influenced by marketing of unregulated products. Patients often discuss the use of natural products with nurses. Nurses have an opportunity to educate and coach patients in effective preventive lifestyle practices. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phenology at the crossroads?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzel, Annette

2014-05-01

Phenology is the study of the timing of natural events such as plant growth or animal migration. Currently nearly 500 papers are published annually that include 'phenolog*' in their title; many are related to anthropogenic change. Since seasonal events are triggered predominantly by climate, phenology has emerged as a key asset in identifying fingerprints of climate change in natural systems, especially since recent warming has been mirrored by significantly advancing spring events. Phenological changes have been reported across continents, habitats and taxa, predominantly as mean temporal changes ('trends') or as relationships to temperature and other drivers ('responses'), and have been summarised in various meta-analyses. However, a considerable variability in observed trends and responses is reported along with mixed messages of the footprint of climate change in nature. Phenology has made considerable advances but is a crossroads of understanding this variability. At the same time a change of emphasis in explanation, prediction and adaptation is emerging, which needs a full acknowledgement of this variability; likely yielding to more plasticity and resilience. In this review, I summarize current knowledge and recent insights into the role of • different observation methods, their accuracy and their target phenophases • observed events, species, traits, ontogenetic effects • species-specific safeguarding strategies, e.g. chilling, photoperiod • additional drivers other than climate, e.g. nutrients, GHG, biotic effects, anthropogenic / agricultural management • seasonal as well as spatio-temporal variation, effects of regional climate changes and analogous climates. This review clearly demonstrated that, comparable to weather and climate ensembles, only a full consideration of variation in responses allows a complete understanding of ecological, cultural and socioeconomic consequences of these phenological changes.

Bark beetles in a changing climate

Treesearch

John E. Lundquist; Barbara J. Bentz

2009-01-01

Over the past decade, native bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) have killed billions of trees across millions of hectares of forest from Alaska to Mexico. Although bark beetle infestations are a regular force of natural change in forested ecosystems, several current outbreaks occurring simultaneously across western North America are the largest and most...

Stream temperature variability: why it matters to salmon

Treesearch

E. Ashley Steel; Brian Beckman; Marie Oliver

2014-01-01

Salmon evolved in natural river systems, where temperatures fluctuate daily, weekly, seasonally, and all along a stream’s path—from the mountains to the sea. Climate change and human activities alter this natural variability. Dams, for example, tend to reduce thermal fluctuations.Currently, scientists gauge habitat suitability for aquatic species by...

Humans in changing shrubland ecosystems

Treesearch

Rosemary L. Pendleton; Stanley G. Kitchen; Andres F. Cibils

2014-01-01

Emerging arid-land research and management approaches are increasingly shaped by the recognition of the fact that humans are an integral part of ecosystems. The thrust to study the coupled natural-human dynamics of such systems1 and the growing awareness of the social-ecological nature of rangeland ecosystems2 are prompting a shift in the way we think about current and...

A novel ice storm manipulation experiment in a northern hardwood forest

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad; John L. Campbell

2012-01-01

Ice storms are an important natural disturbance within forest ecosystems of the northeastern United States. Current models suggest that the frequency and severity of ice storms may increase in the coming decades in response to changes in climate. Because of the stochastic nature of ice storms and difficulties in predicting their occurrence, most past investigations of...

Examining the impact of changes in school tobacco control policies and programs on current smoking and susceptibility to future smoking among youth in the first two years of the COMPASS study: looking back to move forward.

PubMed

Leatherdale, Scott T; Cole, Adam

2015-01-01

School-based prevention activities continue to be an important tobacco control resource, however there is little guidance for school-based tobacco control programming within Ontario. The objective of this study is to identify real-world changes in school-based tobacco control programs or policies in the COMPASS study and examine of those interventions (natural experiments) had any impact on the school-level prevalence of smoking susceptibility and current smoking over time. This paper uses longitudinal school-level smoking behaviour data from Year 1 (Y1: 2012-13) and Year 2 (Y2: 2013-14) of the COMPASS study. Changes to school-level tobacco control programs and policies were measured using the COMPASS School Programs and Policies Questionnaire and knowledge broker follow-up interviews. Quasi-experimental tests of proportion and difference-in-difference models were used to evaluate the impact of the interventions identified between Y1 and Y2 on school-level prevalence of smoking susceptibility among never smokers and current smoking. Between Y1 and Y2, 17 schools reported a change in their tobacco control programming or policies. In four of the intervention schools, the increase in the within-school prevalence of susceptible never smokers between Y1 and Y2 was significantly greater than the natural change observed in the control schools. In five of the intervention schools, the decrease in the within-school prevalence of current smokers between Y1 and Y2 was significantly greater than the natural change observed in the control schools. Only two of the new interventions evaluated (both focused on policies of progressive punishment for students caught smoking on school property), were associated with significant desirable changes in both smoking susceptibility and current smoking between Y1 and Y2. Interventions specific to effective and enforced tobacco control were the most common and consistently had the desired impact on the school-level prevalence of smoking susceptibility and current smoking. Due to the variation in the types of interventions implemented and their effectiveness, additional evaluation evidence is necessary to determine the most successful activities and contexts among individual students. The results presented here highlight which of these real-world promising interventions should be further evaluated using the longitudinal individual-level data in COMPASS over time.

Changing Directions: Toward a Comprehensive System of Services for Early Childhood Care and Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Susan R.

This paper discusses the nature and availability of early childhood care and education in Illinois and advances recommendations to improve the current system. It argues that current multiple federal, state, and local funding streams, with different eligibility requirements and administrations, divide families and programs into artificial and…

Changing Forest Values and Ecosystem Management

Treesearch

David N. Bengston

1994-01-01

There is substantial evidence that we are currently in a period of rapid and significant change in forest values. Some have charged that managing forests in ways that are responsive to diverse and changing forest values is the main challenge faced by public forest managers. To tackle this challenge, we need to address the following questions: (1) What is the nature of...

Are Early Childhood Disparities Narrowing? The Changing Nature of Early Childhood and Its Link to Narrowing School-Entry Achievement Gaps

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bassok, Daphna; Finch, Jenna; Lee, RaeHyuck; Reardon, Sean F.; Waldfogel, Jane

2016-01-01

To date, no studies have documented how much early childhood experiences have changed over time. In the current study, researchers use two large, nationally representative datasets of kindergarten entrants to document the following: (1) How have children's early childhood experiences changed between 1998 and 2010?; (2) To what extent have…

Global Climate Change - U.S. Economic and National Security Opportunity

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-20

The most recent findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions...challenges and opportunities for the United States as they balance national security and economic interests. The effects of climate change could act as a...are various opportunities associated with climate change including opening arctic navigational channels and the vast oil and natural gas resources

Study of enhanced photogalvanic effect of Naphthol Green B in natural sunlight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koli, Pooran

2015-07-01

The photogalvanic cells based on Naphthol Green B sensitizer-Fructose reductant-Sodium Lauryl Sulphate surfactant has been studied in natural sunlight. The cell has been found workable in natural sunlight with greatly enhanced optimum cell performance. The 1159.2 μW power, 4500 μA short-circuit current, 1070 mV open-circuit potential, 14.49% efficiency and 240 min storage capacity (as half change time) has been observed in optimum cell fabrication conditions.

The ‘structure-function’ relationship in glaucoma – past thinking and current concepts

PubMed Central

Malik, Rizwan; Swanson, William H.; Garway-Heath, David F

2013-01-01

An understanding of the relationship between functional and structural measures in primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) is necessary for both grading the severity of disease and for understanding the natural history of the condition. This article outlines the current evidence for the nature of this relationship, and highlights the current mathematical models linking structure and function. Large clinical trials demonstrate that both structural and functional change are apparent in advanced stages of disease, while, at an individual level, detectable structural abnormality may precede functional abnormality in some patients whilst the converse in true in other patients. Although the exact nature of the ‘structure-function’ relationship in POAG is still the topic of scientific debate and the subject of continuing research, this article aims to provide the clinician with an understanding of the past concepts and contemporary thinking in relation to the structure-function relationship in POAG. PMID:22339936

WasteWise Resource Management: Innovative Solid Waste Contracting Methods

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Resource management is an innovative contractual partnership between a waste-generating organization and a qualified contractor that changes the nature of current disposal services to support waste minimization and recycling.

Technology and Learning: Changing Minds in a Changing World. Schooling and Technology, Volume 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willis, Bernice H.; And Others

This document, the publishers' fourth volume on schooling and technology, explores in detail the mismatch between the historically developed purposes, roles, and practices of the schools and the nature of the new technology. Specifically, it juxtaposes characteristics of today's children and the currently available educational technologies…

Development of the Long-Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) Network: Current status and future trends

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term research conducted at multiple scales is critical to assessing the effects of key long term drivers (e.g., global population growth; land-use change; increased competition for natural resources; climate variability and change) on our ability to sustain or enhance agricultural production to...

Day One Sustainability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orr, John; Ibell, Timothy; Evernden, Mark; Darby, Antony

2015-01-01

Emissions reductions targets for the UK set out in the Climate Change Act for the period to 2050 will only be achieved with significant changes to the built environment, which is currently estimated to account for 50% of the UK's carbon emissions. The socio-technological nature of Civil Engineering means that this field is uniquely placed to lead…

Work and Family: 1992. Status Report and Outlook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galinsky, Ellen

Many parents are currently struggling to balance job and family responsibilities. Such attempts bring about changes in work and individual attitudes. This report presents the status of work and family in 1992, as well as the nature and direction of workplace changes to accommodate families. The report indicates that large United States companies…

Impacts of Climate Change on Regulated Streamflow, Hydrologic Extremes, Hydropower Production, and Sediment Discharge in the Skagit River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Se-Yeun; Hamlet, Alan F.; Grossman, Eric E.

2016-01-01

Previous studies have shown that the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic response of the Skagit River are likely to be substantial under natural (i.e. unregulated) conditions. To assess the combined effects of changing natural flow and dam operations that determine impacts to regulated flow, a new integrated daily-time-step reservoir operations model was constructed for the Skagit River Basin. The model was used to simulate current reservoir operating policies for historical flow conditions and for projected flows for the 2040s (2030–2059) and 2080s (2070–2099). The results show that climate change is likely to cause substantial seasonal changes in both natural and regulated flow, with more flow in the winter and spring, and less in summer. Hydropower generation in the basin follows these trends, increasing (+ 19%) in the winter/ spring, and decreasing (- 29%) in the summer by the 2080s. The regulated 100-year flood is projected to increase by 23% by the 2040s and 49% by the 2080s. Peak winter sediment loading in December is projected to increase by 335% by the 2080s in response to increasing winter flows, and average annual sediment loading increases from 2.3 to 5.8 teragrams (+ 149%) per year by the 2080s. Regulated extreme low flows (7Q10) are projected to decrease by about 30% by the 2080s, but remain well above natural low flows. Both current and proposed alternative flood control operations are shown to be largely ineffective in mitigating increasing flood risks in the lower Skagit due to the distribution of flow in the basin during floods.

Organizing phenological data resources to inform natural resource conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Kellermann, Jherime L.; Posthumus, Erin E.; Denny, Ellen G.; Guertin, Patricia; Marsh, Lee; Weltzin, Jake F.

2014-01-01

Changes in the timing of plant and animal life cycle events, in response to climate change, are already happening across the globe. The impacts of these changes may affect biodiversity via disruption to mutualisms, trophic mismatches, invasions and population declines. To understand the nature, causes and consequences of changed, varied or static phenologies, new data resources and tools are being developed across the globe. The USA National Phenology Network is developing a long-term, multi-taxa phenological database, together with a customizable infrastructure, to support conservation and management needs. We present current and potential applications of the infrastructure, across scales and user groups. The approaches described here are congruent with recent trends towards multi-agency, large-scale research and action.

Physiological plasticity increases resilience of ectothermic animals to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seebacher, Frank; White, Craig R.; Franklin, Craig E.

2015-01-01

Understanding how climate change affects natural populations remains one of the greatest challenges for ecology and management of natural resources. Animals can remodel their physiology to compensate for the effects of temperature variation, and this physiological plasticity, or acclimation, can confer resilience to climate change. The current lack of a comprehensive analysis of the capacity for physiological plasticity across taxonomic groups and geographic regions, however, constrains predictions of the impacts of climate change. Here, we assembled the largest database to date to establish the current state of knowledge of physiological plasticity in ectothermic animals. We show that acclimation decreases the sensitivity to temperature and climate change of freshwater and marine animals, but less so in terrestrial animals. Animals from more stable environments have greater capacity for acclimation, and there is a significant trend showing that the capacity for thermal acclimation increases with decreasing latitude. Despite the capacity for acclimation, climate change over the past 20 years has already resulted in increased physiological rates of up to 20%, and we predict further future increases under climate change. The generality of these predictions is limited, however, because much of the world is drastically undersampled in the literature, and these undersampled regions are the areas of greatest need for future research efforts.

Glaciers. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes.

PubMed

Marzeion, Ben; Cogley, J Graham; Richter, Kristin; Parkes, David

2014-08-22

The ongoing global glacier retreat is affecting human societies by causing sea-level rise, changing seasonal water availability, and increasing geohazards. Melting glaciers are an icon of anthropogenic climate change. However, glacier response times are typically decades or longer, which implies that the present-day glacier retreat is a mixed response to past and current natural climate variability and current anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that only 25 ± 35% of the global glacier mass loss during the period from 1851 to 2010 is attributable to anthropogenic causes. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic signal is detectable with high confidence in glacier mass balance observations during 1991 to 2010, and the anthropogenic fraction of global glacier mass loss during that period has increased to 69 ± 24%. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

What did we do and what can we do with our global soil resources?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoorvogel, Jetse

2017-04-01

Our global soil resources increasingly meet the headlines: soil degradation leads to irreversible changes and a loss of the global production potential, soil resources play a key role to reach the sustainable development goals, and soils are seen as a potential solution to some of the climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration. However, global assessments of soil degradation, soil resources, and the potential of soils to provide ecosystem services are not very consistent. This study aims to contribute to the discussion by providing a realistic opportunity space on the options for our soil resources. First, the natural and current soil conditions are estimated using the S-World methodology. S-World has been developed to provide global maps of soil properties at a 30 arc-second resolution for environmental modelling. By running the S-world methodology for current but also for natural land cover, natural and current soil conditions are estimated. This analysis tells us what we did to our global soil resources. Subsequently, the same methodology is used to analyse a range of different scenarios for the future to explore the potential for soil restoration and carbon sequestration. Although the actual management interventions required are not analysed, the analysis does provide the opportunity space and thus what we can do with our soil resources in terms of realistic ranges. The results are interpreted in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals and the recent 4‰-initiative for climate change mitigation.

Energy Switching Threshold for Climatic Benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.

2013-12-01

Climate change is one of the great challenges facing humanity currently and in the future. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems (1). A transition from the global system of high Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission electricity generation to low GHG emission energy technologies is required to mitigate climate change (2). Natural gas is increasingly seen as a choice for transitions to renewable sources. However, recent researches in energy and climate puzzled about the climate implications of relying more energy on natural gas. On one hand, a shift to natural gas is promoted as climate mitigation because it has lower carbon per unit energy than coal (3). On the other hand, the effect of switching to natural gas on nuclear-power and other renewable energies development may offset benefits from fuel-switching (4). Cheap natural gas is causing both coal plants and nuclear plants to close in the US. The objective of this study is to measure and evaluate the threshold of energy switching for climatic benefits. We hypothesized that the threshold ratio of energy switching for climatic benefits is related to GHGs emission factors of energy technologies, but the relation is not linear. A model was developed to study the fuel switching threshold for greenhouse gas emission reduction, and transition from coal and nuclear electricity generation to natural gas electricity generation was analyzed as a case study. The results showed that: (i) the threshold ratio of multi-energy switching for climatic benefits changes with GHGs emission factors of energy technologies. (ii)The mathematical relation between the threshold ratio of energy switching and GHGs emission factors of energies is a curved surface function. (iii) The analysis of energy switching threshold for climatic benefits can be used for energy and climate policy decision support.

Emerging Methane Sources: A Bang or Whimper? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harriss, R. C.

2013-12-01

In this presentation we examine two emerging methane emission sources that may further accelerate climate change in the 21st century: 1) Will fugitive methane emissions associated with the development of unconventional natural gas resources pose a significant threat of accelerating climate change? 2) Will continued warming of Arctic regions destabilize permafrost and methane hydrates rapidly increasing global atmospheric methane that results in a catastrophic climate change emergency? These risks are currently described in two different guises, with unconventional gas as persistent and gradually unfolding threat and Arctic rapid warming and release of methane as a low-probability event that could in an instant change everything. Current research is far from answering the question of whether these emerging methane sources will lead to a climate change bang or whimper. Both issues reflect the need to understand complex environmental and engineered systems as they interact with social and economic forces. While the evolution of energy systems favors methane as a contemporary transition fuel, researchers and practitioners need to address the fugitive methane leakage, reliability, and safety of natural gas systems. The concept of a methane bridge as a viable direction to decarbonization is appealing; it's just not as big or fast a step as many scientists want.

Natural Gas Value-Chain and Network Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kobos, Peter H.; Outkin, Alexander V.; Beyeler, Walter E.

2015-09-01

The current expansion of natural gas (NG) development in the United States requires an understanding of how this change will affect the natural gas industry, downstream consumers, and economic growth in order to promote effective planning and policy development. The impact of this expansion may propagate through the NG system and US economy via changes in manufacturing, electric power generation, transportation, commerce, and increased exports of liquefied natural gas. We conceptualize this problem as supply shock propagation that pushes the NG system and the economy away from its current state of infrastructure development and level of natural gas use. Tomore » illustrate this, the project developed two core modeling approaches. The first is an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach which addresses shock propagation throughout the existing natural gas distribution system. The second approach uses a System Dynamics-based model to illustrate the feedback mechanisms related to finding new supplies of natural gas - notably shale gas - and how those mechanisms affect exploration investments in the natural gas market with respect to proven reserves. The ABM illustrates several stylized scenarios of large liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the U.S. The ABM preliminary results demonstrate that such scenario is likely to have substantial effects on NG prices and on pipeline capacity utilization. Our preliminary results indicate that the price of natural gas in the U.S. may rise by about 50% when the LNG exports represent 15% of the system-wide demand. The main findings of the System Dynamics model indicate that proven reserves for coalbed methane, conventional gas and now shale gas can be adequately modeled based on a combination of geologic, economic and technology-based variables. A base case scenario matches historical proven reserves data for these three types of natural gas. An environmental scenario, based on implementing a $50/tonne CO 2 tax results in less proven reserves being developed in the coming years while demand may decrease in the absence of acceptable substitutes, incentives or changes in consumer behavior. An increase in demand of 25% increases proven reserves being developed by a very small amount by the end of the forecast period of 2025.« less

Enhancing the Australian healthcare sector's responsiveness to environmental sustainability issues: suggestions from Australian healthcare professionals.

PubMed

Dunphy, Jillian L

2013-05-01

Identify strategies to implement change across the Australian healthcare sector to better support social and natural environments. Methods. Qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews with Australian healthcare professionals. Interviewees described multiple barriers to implementing change and numerous strategies to overcome these barriers. They argued that action must be taken at the individual and systemic levels to produce substantial and effective change. The strategies recommended fall into four main categories: altering workplace cultures and professional identities, community engagement, political activity, and change from within. The overarching goals of these strategies are to reduce negative impacts on the natural environment, and increase social equity within and across generations. By implementing the strategies described, a more cohesive effort to address sustainability issues across the sector can be made. This may improve local and global health, within current and future generations. WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE TOPIC? Healthcare has a significant impact on the natural and social environments, which in turn have a significant impact upon health and healthcare. WHAT DOES THIS PAPER ADD? This paper describes strategies to alter healthcare to better support environmental sustainability. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTITIONERS? Collective implementation of the described strategies may allow a more cohesive and effective response across the Australian healthcare sector, to enhance local and global health for current and future generations.

Biologically Based Methods for Pest Management in Agriculture under Changing Climates: Challenges and Future Directions.

PubMed

Chidawanyika, Frank; Mudavanhu, Pride; Nyamukondiwa, Casper

2012-11-09

The current changes in global climatic regimes present a significant societal challenge, affecting in all likelihood insect physiology, biochemistry, biogeography and population dynamics. With the increasing resistance of many insect pest species to chemical insecticides and an increasing organic food market, pest control strategies are slowly shifting towards more sustainable, ecologically sound and economically viable options. Biologically based pest management strategies present such opportunities through predation or parasitism of pests and plant direct or indirect defense mechanisms that can all be important components of sustainable integrated pest management programs. Inevitably, the efficacy of biological control systems is highly dependent on natural enemy-prey interactions, which will likely be modified by changing climates. Therefore, knowledge of how insect pests and their natural enemies respond to climate variation is of fundamental importance in understanding biological insect pest management under global climate change. Here, we discuss biological control, its challenges under climate change scenarios and how increased global temperatures will require adaptive management strategies to cope with changing status of insects and their natural enemies.

Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufschmidt, G.; Crozier, M.; Glade, T.

2005-05-01

This study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons. Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that: 1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence, 2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and 4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural risks are currently available. Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk, since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand, dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This contribution reviews available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further concepts, and gives research perspectives on a New Zealand example.

Foundational literature for moving native plant materials in changing climates

Treesearch

Mary I. Williams; Kas Dumroese; Jeremy Pinto; Martin F. Jurgensen

2015-01-01

Seed transfer guidelines and zones are used to manage the movement of plant materials, but by the end of the century many landscapes across the globe will have climates that are incompatible with current vegetation. The mismatch in rates between climate change and plant migration and adaptation will pose significant challenges for natural resource managers, especially...

Using Item Response Theory to Conduct a Distracter Analysis on Conceptual Inventory of Natural Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Battisti, Bryce Thomas; Hanegan, Nikki; Sudweeks, Richard; Cates, Rex

2010-01-01

Concept inventories are often used to assess current student understanding although conceptual change models are problematic. Due to controversies with conceptual change models and the realities of student assessment, it is important that concept inventories are evaluated using a variety of theoretical models to improve quality. This study used a…

Two-dimensional velocity, optical risetime, and peak current estimates for natural positive lightning return strokes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mach, Douglas M.; Rust, W. D.

1993-01-01

Velocities, optical risetimes, and transmission line model peak currents for seven natural positive return strokes are reported. The average 2D positive return stroke velocity for channel segments of less than 500 m in length starting near the base of the channel is 0.8 +/- 0.3 x 10 exp 8 m/s, which is slower than the present corresponding average velocity for natural negative first return strokes of 1.7 +/- 0.7 x 10 exp 8/s. It is inferred that positive stroke peak currents in the literature, which assume the same velocity as negative strokes, are low by a factor of 2. The average 2D positive return stroke velocity for channel segments of greater than 500 m starting near the base of the channel is 0.9 +/- 0.4 x 10 exp 8 m/s. The corresponding average velocity for the present natural negative first strokes is 1.2 +/- 0.6 x 10 exp 8 m/s. No significant velocity change with height is found for positive return strokes.

Environmental Adult Education for Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production and Fish Farming in Rivers State of Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eheazu, Caroline L.; Ezeala, Joy I.

2017-01-01

The threats of climate change to human society and natural ecosystems have become a devastating environmental problem for crop production and fish farming in Nigeria. This is partly because farmers and fisher folk are known to adopt age-old methods that do not counter current global warming and climate change effects. The purpose of this study was…

77 FR 27403 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List the Eastern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-10

... level), rising sea levels due to climate change may inundate some habitat occupied by the species and... current population levels, and current and projected trends; and (e) Past and ongoing conservation... Philosophical Society, Vol. 4 (1799), pp. 362-381). The Florida Museum of Natural History Web site 2011 ( http...

Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnosky, Anthony D.; Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Head, Jason; Gonzalez, Patrick; Polly, P. David; Lawing, A. Michelle; Eronen, Jussi T.; Ackerly, David D.; Alex, Ken; Biber, Eric; Blois, Jessica L.; Brashares, Justin; Ceballos, Gerardo; Davis, Edward; Dietl, Gregory P.; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Doremus, Holly; Fortelius, Mikael; Greene, Harry W.; Hellmann, Jessica; Hickler, Thomas; Jackson, Stephen T.; Kemp, Melissa; Koch, Paul L.; Kremen, Claire; Lindsey, Emily L.; Looy, Cindy; Marshall, Charles R.; Mendenhall, Chase; Mulch, Andreas; Mychajliw, Alexis M.; Nowak, Carsten; Ramakrishnan, Uma; Schnitzler, Jan; Das Shrestha, Kashish; Solari, Katherine; Stegner, Lynn; Stegner, M. Allison; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Wake, Marvalee H.; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-01-01

The current impacts of humanity on nature are rapid and destructive, but species turnover and change have occurred throughout the history of life. Although there is much debate about the best approaches to take in conservation, ultimately, we need to permit or enhance the resilience of natural systems so that they can continue to adapt and function into the future. In a Review, Barnosky et al. argue that the best way to do this is to look back at paleontological history as a way to understand how ecological resilience is maintained, even in the face of change.

[Wetland landscape pattern change based on GIS and RS: a review].

PubMed

Kong, Fan-Ting; Xi, Min; Li, Yue; Kong, Fan-Long; Chen, Wan

2013-04-01

Wetland is an ecological landscape with most biodiversity in nature, which has unique ecological structure and function, and contains abundant natural resources to provide material guarantee for human's living and development. Wetland landscape pattern is the comprehensive result of various ecological processes, and has become a hot issue in wetland ecological study. At present, the combination of geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technologies is an important way to study the wetland landscape pattern change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the wetland landscape change based on GIS and RS from the aspects of the research methods of wetland landscape pattern, index of wetland landscape pattern, and driving forces of wetland landscape pattern evolution, and discussed the applications of the combination of GIS and RS in monitoring the wetland landscape pattern change, the index selection of wetland landscape pattern, and the driving mechanisms of the combined action of human and nature. Some deficiencies in the current studies were put forward, and the directions of the future-studies were prospected.

The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO): Science at Your Fingertips

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, L. N.; Treasure, E.; Moore Myers, J.; McNulty, S.

2012-12-01

There is an ever-increasing volume of useful scientific knowledge about climate change effects and management options for natural ecosystems. Agencies such as the USDA Forest Service have been charged with the need to evaluate this body of knowledge and if necessary adapt to the impacts of climate change in their forest planning and management. However, the combined volume of existing information and rate of development of new information, lack of climate change specialists, and limited technology transfer mechanisms make efficient access and use difficult. The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) addresses this difficulty through its publically accessible web-based tool that puts current and concise climate change science at the fingertips of forest planners and managers. A collaborative product of the USDA Forest Service Research Stations and the National Forest System, TACCIMO integrates peer-reviewed research with management and planning options through search and reporting tools that connect land managers with information they can trust. TACCIMO highlights elements from the wealth of climate change science with attention to what natural resource planners and managers need through a searchable repository of over 4,000 effects of climate change and close to 1,000 adaptive management options, all excerpted from a growing body of peer-reviewed scientific literature. A geospatial mapping application provides downscaled climate data for the nation and other spatially explicit models relevant to evaluating climate change impacts on forests. Report generators assist users in capturing outputs specific to a given location and resource area in a consistent and organized manner. For USDA Forest Service users, science findings can be readily linked with management conditions and capabilities from national forest management plans. The development of TACCIMO was guided by interactions with natural resource professionals, resulting in a flexible framework that allows new information to be added routinely and existing information to be reorganized as new science emerges and management needs change. TACCIMO is currently being used to support climate change science assessments for national forest land and management plan revisions in El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico, the Southern Sierra national forests in California, and Francis Marion National Forest in South Carolina. The tool is also being actively used by state, extension, and private natural resource professionals for climate change education and outreach. For all users, TACCIMO provides a fast, concise, and creditable starting point to guide critical thinking, additional analysis, and expert consultation to support all aspects of natural resource management decision making.

Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas (Non-Seismic)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snow, Robert L.; Ross, Steven B.; Sullivan, Robin S.

2010-09-24

The purpose of this review is to assess the need for updating Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas, as required by DOE Order 420.1B Chapter IV, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, based on significant changes in state-of-the-art NPH assessment methodology or site-specific information. The review includes all natural phenomena hazards with the exception of seismic/earthquake hazards, which are being addressed under a separate effort. It was determined that existing non-seismic NPH assessments are consistent with current design methodology and site specific data.

Ocean warming expands habitat of a rich natural resource and benefits a national economy.

PubMed

Jansen, Teunis; Post, Søren; Kristiansen, Trond; Óskarsson, Guðmundur J; Boje, Jesper; MacKenzie, Brian R; Broberg, Mala; Siegstad, Helle

2016-10-01

Geographic redistribution of living natural resources changes access and thereby harvesting opportunities between countries. Internationally shared fish resources can be sensitive to shifts in the marine environment and this may have great impact on the economies of countries and regions that rely most heavily on fisheries to provide employment and food supply. Here we present a climate change-related biotic expansion of a rich natural resource with substantial economic consequences, namely the appearance of northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in Greenlandic waters. In recent years, the summer temperature has reached record highs in the Irminger Current, and this development has expanded the available and realized mackerel habitat in time and space. Observations in the Irminger Current in east Greenland in 2011 of this temperature-sensitive epipelagic fish were the first records so far northwest in the Atlantic. This change in migration pattern was followed by a rapid development of a large-scale fishery of substantial importance for the national economy of Greenland (23% of Greenland's export value of all goods in 2014). A pelagic trawl survey was conducted in mid-summer 2014 and the results showed that the bulk of ~1 million Mg (=t) of mackerel in the Irminger Current in southeast Greenland were located in the relatively warm (>8.5°C) surface layer. Mackerel was also observed in southwest Greenland. Finally, 15 CMIP5 Earth System Model projections of future marine climate were used to evaluate the epipelagic environment in Greenland. These projections for moderate and high CO 2 emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5) suggest how the available mackerel habitat may expand further in space and time. Overall, our results indicate that, if the stock remains large, productive, and continues its current migration pattern, then climate change has provided Greenland with a new unique opportunity for commercial exploitation. However, positive cases like this should not be cherry-picked and misused as arguments against timely and effective mitigation of climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Nature's Trust: A Paradigm for Natural Resources Stewardship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, M. C.; Whitelaw, E.; Doppelt, B.; Burchell, A.

2007-12-01

Climate change uncertainty puts a premium on all remaining natural resources. Farmland, air, water, wetlands, wildlife, soils, mineral resources and forests must be protected to ensure that Americans - present citizens and future generations - have the fundamental survival resources they need in a future that holds many unknowns. Moreover, in light of the need to manage resources given climate and particle forcing, government must mitigate dangerous carbon loading of the atmosphere. Confronting climate change and protecting natural resources requires a clear sense of government obligation that is inherent to sovereignty, not a matter of political choice. Our government representatives can and must reframe government's discretion into a trustee obligation to protect Nature and ensure natural resource stewardship. Drawing upon enduring legal principles and court decisions, government can be characterized as a trustee of the natural resources essential to human survival. A trust is a fundamental type of ownership whereby one manages property for the benefit of another. Viewed as a trust, the environment consists of a portfolio of quantified natural assets that government manages. As beneficiaries, citizens hold a common property interest in defined, bounded assets that make up Nature's Trust. Such trust principles form the bedrock of statutory law. Trustees have a fiduciary obligation to protect trust assets and may not allow destruction of property they manage. This session will provide a policy frame for current scientific efforts to address climate change and natural resources loss. Under the Nature's Trust frame, U.S. government leaders and agencies at every level inherit a strict fiduciary obligation to protect our collective natural resources, including our water and the atmosphere, as assets in the trust. Their fiduciary standard of care consists of a proportionate responsibility, which ties directly to "Nature's Mandate" as defined by current climate scientists: each jurisdiction must cap and begin reducing total GHG emissions within the decade and continue reduction until they reach 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The trust framework positions all nations of the world in a logical relationship that can guide international diplomacy. The atmosphere, oceans and the global hydrologic cycle are commonly held assets shared as property among all nations on Earth. Thus, all Nations are sovereign co-tenant trustees, each holding the fiduciary responsibility to not degrade the common asset and to accomplish proportionate carbon reduction.

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Initial observations on tree mortality following a severe drought in 2012 in two Indiana state forests and implications for long-term compositional dynamics

Treesearch

Andrew R. Meier; Mike R. Saunders

2014-01-01

Compositional and structural changes in response to silvicultural treatments in forest stands are well documented (e.g., Saunders and Wagner 2008), but the stochastic nature of natural disturbance events often precludes direct observation of their impacts on stand dynamics. Though the current dominance of oak-hickory forest types in the Central Hardwoods Forest region...

Simulating riparian vegetation and aquatic habitat dynamics in response to natural and anthropogenic disturbance regimes in the upper Grande Ronde River, Oregon, USA.

Treesearch

S.M. Wondzell; M.A. Hemstrom; P.A. Bisson

2007-01-01

This study explored the use of state and transition models (STMs) to evaluate the effects of natural disturbances and land-use practices on aquatic and riparian habitats. The probability of stand-replacing wildfires, underburns, grazing, floods, and debris flows were used to define historical and current disturbance regimes. Model runs illustrated dramatic changes in...

Preparation of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and State Soil Geographic Data Base (STATSGO) data for global change research in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

Loius R. Iverson; Anantha M. G. Prasad; Charles T. Scott

1996-01-01

The USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and the Natural Resource Conservation Service's State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data bases provide valuable natural resource data that can be analyzed at the national scale. When coupled with other data (e.g., climate), these data bases can provide insights into factors associated with current and...

Risk Management and Physical Modelling for Mountainous Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehning, Michael; Wilhelm, Christian

Population growth and climate change cause rapid changes in mountainous regions resulting in increased risks of floods, avalanches, debris flows and other natural hazards. Xevents are of particular concern, since attempts to protect against them result in exponentially growing costs. In this contribution, we suggest an integral risk management approach to dealing with natural hazards that occur in mountainous areas. Using the example of a mountain pass road, which can be protected from the danger of an avalanche by engineering (galleries) and/or organisational (road closure) measures, we show the advantage of an optimal combination of both versus the traditional approach, which is to rely solely on engineering structures. Organisational measures become especially important for Xevents because engineering structures cannot be designed for those events. However, organisational measures need a reliable and objective forecast of the hazard. Therefore, we further suggest that such forecasts should be developed using physical numerical modelling. We present the status of current approaches to using physical modelling to predict snow cover stability for avalanche warnings and peak runoff from mountain catchments for flood warnings. While detailed physical models can already predict peak runoff reliably, they are only used to support avalanche warnings. With increased process knowledge and computer power, current developments should lead to a enhanced role for detailed physical models in natural mountain hazard prediction.

Current status of the scientific study of the personality disorders: an overview of epidemiological, longitudinal, experimental psychopathology, and neurobehavioral perspectives.

PubMed

Lenzenweger, Mark F

2010-08-01

Research on the nature and development of personality disorders has grown immensely over the past thirty years. A selective summary overview is given of the current status of the scientific study of the personality disorders from several perspectives, including the epidemiological, longitudinal, experimental psychopathology, and neurobehavioral perspectives. From this research, we now know that approximately 10 percent of the general population suffer from a diagnosable personality disorder. Moreover, contrary to nearly a century of theory and clinical pedagogy, modern longitudinal studies clearly suggest that personality disorders decrease in severity over time. The mechanisms by which this change occurs are not understood at present, though it is not likely that change in underlying normal personality systems drives the change in personality disorder. The methods of the experimental psychopathology laboratory, including neuroimaging approaches, are being brought to bear on the nature of personality disorders in efforts to relate neurobiological and neurocognitive functions to personality disorder symptomatology. A model that links personality disorder feature development to underlying, interacting brain-based neurobehavioral systems is reviewed in brief. Current issues and findings illustrative of these developments are given using borderline personality disorder as an exemplar. Finally, areas of intersection between psychoanalytic treatment approaches and the growing science of personality disorder are highlighted.

Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions.

PubMed

Boyd, Philip W; Cornwall, Christopher E; Davison, Andrew; Doney, Scott C; Fourquez, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Lima, Ivan D; McMinn, Andrew

2016-08-01

Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate-change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats - from short-lived phytoplankton to long-lived corals - in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate-change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate-change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate-change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate-change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO2 (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to physiologically straddle wide-ranging timescales in the alteration of ocean conditions, including the need to adapt to rapidly rising CO2 and also acclimate to environmental heterogeneity in more slowly changing properties such as warming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecologically-Relevant Maps of Landforms and Physiographic Diversity for Climate Adaptation Planning

PubMed Central

Theobald, David M.; Harrison-Atlas, Dylan; Monahan, William B.; Albano, Christine M.

2015-01-01

Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale, and so we recommend using high-resolution datasets when possible, as well as generating metrics using multiple neighborhood sizes to both minimize and characterize potential unknown biases. We illustrate how our work can inform current strategies for climate change adaptation. The analytical framework and classification of landforms and parent material are easily extendable to other geographies and may be used to promote climate change adaptation in other settings. PMID:26641818

Restoring Coastal Plants to Improve Global Carbon Storage: Reaping What We Sow

PubMed Central

Irving, Andrew D.; Connell, Sean D.; Russell, Bayden D.

2011-01-01

Long-term carbon capture and storage (CCS) is currently considered a viable strategy for mitigating rising levels of atmospheric CO2 and associated impacts of global climate change. Until recently, the significant below-ground CCS capacity of coastal vegetation such as seagrasses, salt marshes, and mangroves has largely gone unrecognized in models of global carbon transfer. However, this reservoir of natural, free, and sustainable carbon storage potential is increasingly jeopardized by alarming trends in coastal habitat loss, totalling 30–50% of global abundance over the last century alone. Human intervention to restore lost habitats is a potentially powerful solution to improve natural rates of global CCS, but data suggest this approach is unlikely to substantially improve long-term CCS unless current restoration efforts are increased to an industrial scale. Failure to do so raises the question of whether resources currently used for expensive and time-consuming restoration projects would be more wisely invested in arresting further habitat loss and encouraging natural recovery. PMID:21479244

Simulation of forest change in the New Jersey Pine Barrens under current and pre-colonial conditions

Treesearch

Robert M. Scheller; Steve Van Tuyl; Kenneth Clark; Nicholas G. Hayden; John Hom; David J. Mladenoff

2008-01-01

Changes in land use patterns in and around forests, including rural development and road building, have occurred throughout the United States and are accelerating in many areas. As a result, there have been significant departures from 'natural' or pre-settlement disturbance regimes. Altered disturbance regimes can shift composition and dominance in tree...

What Elements in a Sustainability Course Contribute to Paradigm Change and Action Competence? A Study at Lincoln University, New Zealand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piasentin, Flora Bonazzi; Roberts, Lin

2018-01-01

A significant shift in the dominant paradigm governing the relationship of humans with nature and society is crucial in order to change the current unsustainable practices. This article describes a pilot-study based on a Masters level sustainability course, which explored what specific content, activities and resources may contribute to promoting…

Thirty years of weather change and effects on a grassland in the Peloncillo Mountains, New Mexico

Treesearch

William H. Moir

2011-01-01

In this paper I describe and compare grassland changes since 1977 at the Central Peloncillo Research Natural Area (CPRNA) with temperature and precipitation data from its nearby weather station. The grama grasslands there have thrived through two distinctive climate periods since 1977. The current period began with warm and dry years beginning around 1993 and...

The Effect of Land Use Changes on Blue Oak Regeneration and Recruitment

Treesearch

Scott Mensing

1991-01-01

Lack of blue oak (Quercus douglasii) saplings and seedlings throughout much of its range has prompted research into the regeneration status of the species. Our ability to assess whether the current lack of regeneration is a natural pattern or a response to human induced environmental change is limited by lack of data on the history of blue oak...

Workforce 2000 and the Mildly Handicapped. Identifying Emerging Issues and Trends in Technology for Special Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodward, John

As part of a 3-year study to identify emerging issues and trends in technology for special education, this paper explores the changing nature of the workforce in relation to concurrent changes in education services for students with mild disabilities. Current trends are identified and projections for the next decade are offered, which include the…

Climatic change and assisted migration: Strategic options for forest and conservation nurseries

Treesearch

Mary I. Williams; R. Kasten Dumroese

2013-01-01

In light of current studies (for example, Gray and Hamann 2012; Zhu and others 2012) that show climate will change faster than plants can adapt or migrate naturally, it begs the question, "What does this mean for forestry, specifically forest and conservation nurseries?" Growing trees that just survive may become more important than promoting fast growth...

A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutherland, William J.; Alves, José A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

2012-01-01

We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

A Comparative Study of Current Theories and Practices in Assessing Students' Achievements at Primary and Secondary Level. Final Report. IBE Document Series, Number 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Macintosh, Henry G.

A study was conducted to examine and compare, in 10 selected countries, the interaction between current conceptions and theories of assessment and assessment practices. Of particular interest was the nature of changing practice and theory in assessing the learning achievements of students in elementary and secondary education, as well as the…

Pest management under climate change: The importance of understanding tritrophic relations.

PubMed

Castex, V; Beniston, M; Calanca, P; Fleury, D; Moreau, J

2018-03-01

Plants and insects depend on climatic factors (temperature, solar radiation, precipitations, relative humidity and CO 2 ) for their development. Current knowledge suggests that climate change can alter plants and insects development and affect their interactions. Shifts in tritrophic relations are of particular concern for Integrated Pest Management (IPM), because responses at the highest trophic level (natural enemies) are highly sensitive to warmer temperature. It is expected that natural enemies could benefit from better conditions for their development in northern latitudes and IPM could be facilitated by a longer period of overlap. This may not be the case in southern latitudes, where climate could become too warm. Adapting IPM to future climatic conditions requires therefore understanding of changes that occur at the various levels and their linkages. The aim of this review is to assess the current state of knowledge and highlights the gaps in the existing literature concerning how climate change can affect tritrophic relations. Because of the economic importance of wine production, the interactions between grapevine, Vitis vinifera (1st), Lobesia botrana (2nd) and Trichogramma spp., (3rd), an egg parasitoid of Lobesia botrana, are considered as a case study for addressing specific issues. In addition, we discuss models that could be applied in order quantify alterations in the synchrony or asynchrony patterns but also the shifts in the timing and spatial distribution of hosts, pests and their natural enemies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Historical bathymetry and bathymetric change in the Mississippi-Alabama coastal region, 1847-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buster, Noreen A.; Morton, Robert A.

2011-01-01

Land loss and seafloor change around the Mississippi and Alabama (MS-AL) barrier islands are of great concern to the public and to local, state, and federal agencies. The islands provide wildlife protected areas and recreational land, and they serve as a natural first line of defense for the mainland against storm activity (index map on poster). Principal physical conditions that drive morphological seafloor and coastal change in this area include decreased sediment supply, sea-level rise, storms, and human activities (Otvos, 1970; Byrnes and others, 1991; Morton and others, 2004; Morton, 2008). Seafloor responses to the same processes can also affect the entire coastal zone. Sediment eroded from the barrier islands is entrained in the littoral system, where it is redistributed by alongshore currents. Wave and current activity is partially controlled by the profile of the seafloor, and this interdependency along with natural and anthropogenic influences has significant effects on nearshore environments. When a coastal system is altered by human activity such as dredging, as is the case of the MS-AL coastal region, the natural state and processes are altered, and alongshore sediment transport can be disrupted. As a result of deeply dredged channels, adjacent island migration is blocked, nearshore environments downdrift in the littoral system become sediment starved, and sedimentation around the channels is modified. Sediment deposition and erosion are reflected through seafloor evolution. In a rapidly changing coastal environment, understanding historically where and why changes are occurring is essential. To better assess the comprehensive dynamics of the MS-AL coastal zone, a 160-year evaluation of the bathymetry and bathymetric change of the region was conducted.

Challenges to conservation: land use change and local participation in the Al Reem Biosphere Reserve, West Qatar

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

One response to humanity's unsustainable use of natural resources and consequent degradation, even destruction of the environment, is to establish conservation areas to protect Nature and preserve biodiversity at least in selected regions. In Qatar, the government has shown strong support for this approach, confronted by the environmental consequences of oil and gas extraction and rapid urban development, by designating about one-tenth of the country a conservation area. Located in the west of the peninsula, it comprises the Al Reem Reserve, subsequently declared a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve. Several approaches have figured in conservation, currently popular is co-management featuring participation of the local population, which recognises that people's activities often contribute to today's environment, with the promotion of bio-cultural diversity. However, these assumptions may not hold where rapid social and cultural change occurs, as in Qatar. We explore the implications of such change, notably in land use. We detail changes resulting with the move from nomadic to sedentary lifestyles: in land access, which now features tribal-state control, and herding strategies, which now feature migrant labour and depend on imported fodder and water, underwritten by the country's large gas and oil revenues. Current stocking arrangements - animals herded in much smaller areas than previously - are thought responsible for the degradation of natural resources. The place of animals, notably camels, in Qatari life, has also changed greatly, possibly further promoting overstocking. Many local people disagree. What are the implications of such changes for the participatory co-management of conservation areas? Do they imply turning the clock back to centrally managed approaches that seek to control access and local activities? PMID:20964818

Inferences of Present and Past Changes at Isolated Enclaves and Matrix of Savannas by Carbon Isotopes in a Transitional Forest-Savanna Area in Northern Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couto-Santos, F. R.; Luizao, F. J.; Camargo, P. B.

2013-12-01

The evolutionary history of savannas influenced by short term climate cycles, during the Quaternary Period, could prompt variations in forest cover often related to movements of the forest-savanna boundary. In this study we investigated current and past changes in the structure of vegetation and the origins of savannas of different natures in a biogeographically and climatic transitional forest-savanna area in northern Amazonia. Variations in the isotopic composition of soil organic matter (δ13C) from surface soils (0-10 cm) along forest-savanna boundaries, detected by a sigmoidal non-linear function, were used to identify current changes in vegetation, while past changes were inferred by discontinuities in the evolution of δ13C with soil depth using piecewise regression associated with radiocarbon dating (14C). By comparing small isolated savanna enclaves inside a strictly protected nature reserve (ESEC Maracá) with its outskirts unprotected continuous savanna matrix, we found that origins and the patterns of dynamics were distinct between these areas and did not respond in the same way to climate change and fire events, either in the last decades or during the Holocene. The stability of the present boundaries of the surrounding savanna matrix reflects the resilience of the transitional forests under a recent intensified fire regime and favorable climate, while the deep forest soil isotopic signal indicated a forest shrinkage of at least 70 m occurring since its origin in early Holocene until 780 years BP associated with a climate drier than the current one. Contrarily, the protected enclaves inside ESEC Maracá, remained stable since the middle Holocene, suggesting a non-anthropogenic origin related to soil edaphic conditions, but with recent dynamics of advancing forest by 8 m century-1 favored by current climate and lacking fire events. A detailed understanding of the origins of savannas of distinct natures and the way they are affected by climate and fire events provided by carbon isotopes and radiocarbon analysis in both short and long term could help predict the future of these ecosystems under the envisaged climate change scenario. Financial Support: Boticário Group Foundation (Fundação Grupo Boticário); National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq); The Minas Gerais State Research Foundation (FAPEMIG).

Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis.

PubMed

Lewis, Owen T

2006-01-29

An article published in the journal Nature in January 2004-in which an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.

miRNAs and Other Epigenetic Changes as Biomarkers in Triple Negative Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Mathe, Andrea; Scott, Rodney J.; Avery-Kiejda, Kelly A.

2015-01-01

Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is characterised by the lack of receptors for estrogen (ER), progesterone (PR), and human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2). Since it cannot be treated by current endocrine therapies which target these receptors and due to its aggressive nature, it has one of the worst prognoses of all breast cancer subtypes. The only treatments remain chemo- and/or radio-therapy and surgery and because of this, novel biomarkers or treatment targets are urgently required to improve disease outcomes. MicroRNAs represent an attractive candidate for targeted therapies against TNBC, due to their natural ability to act as antisense interactors and regulators of entire gene sets involved in malignancy and their superiority over mRNA profiling to accurately classify disease. Here we review the current knowledge regarding miRNAs as biomarkers in TNBC and their potential use as therapeutic targets in this disease. Further, we review other epigenetic changes and interactions of these changes with microRNAs in this breast cancer subtype, which may lead to the discovery of new treatment targets for TNBC. PMID:26633365

Native America: American Indian Geoscientists & Earth System Science Leaders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolman, J. R.

2011-12-01

We are living in a definite time of change. Distinct changes are being experienced in our most sacred and natural environments. This is especially true on Native lands across the Americas. Native people have lived for millennia in distinct and unique ways. The knowledge of balancing the needs of people with the needs of our natural environments is paramount in all Tribal societies. These changes have accelerated the momentum to ensure the future of American Indian Geoscientists and Earth Systems Science Leaders. The presentation will bring to prominence the unique recruitment and mentoring necessary to achieve success that emerged through working with Tribal people. The presentation will highlight: 1) past and present philosophies on recruitment and mentoring of Native/Tribal students in geoscience and earth systems science; 2) current Native leadership and research development; 3) unique collaborations "bridging" Native people across geographic areas (International) in developing educational/research experiences which integrate the distinctive geoscience and earth systems science knowledge of Tribal peoples throughout the Americas. The presentation will highlight currently funded projects and initiatives as well as success stories of emerging Native geoscientists and earth systems science leaders.

Functional consequences of realistic biodiversity changes in a marine ecosystem

PubMed Central

Bracken, Matthew E. S.; Friberg, Sara E.; Gonzalez-Dorantes, Cirse A.; Williams, Susan L.

2008-01-01

Declines in biodiversity have prompted concern over the consequences of species loss for the goods and services provided by natural ecosystems. However, relatively few studies have evaluated the functional consequences of realistic, nonrandom changes in biodiversity. Instead, most designs have used randomly selected assemblages from a local species pool to construct diversity gradients. It is therefore difficult, based on current evidence, to predict the functional consequences of realistic declines in biodiversity. In this study, we used tide pool microcosms to demonstrate that the effects of real-world changes in biodiversity may be very different from those of random diversity changes. Specifically, we measured the relationship between the diversity of a seaweed assemblage and its ability to use nitrogen, a key limiting nutrient in nearshore marine systems. We quantified nitrogen uptake using both experimental and model seaweed assemblages and found that natural increases in diversity resulted in enhanced rates of nitrogen use, whereas random diversity changes had no effect on nitrogen uptake. Our results suggest that understanding the real-world consequences of declining biodiversity will require addressing changes in species performance along natural diversity gradients and understanding the relationships between species' susceptibility to loss and their contributions to ecosystem functioning. PMID:18195375

Darwin and the uses of extinction.

PubMed

Beer, Gillian

2009-01-01

We currently view extinction with dismay and even horror, but Darwin saw extinction as ordinary and as necessary to evolutionary change. Still, the degree to which extinction is fundamental to his theory is rarely discussed. This essay examines Darwin's linking of the idea of "improvement" with that of natural selection and tracks a cluster of reasons for our changed valuation of extinction now. Those reasons demonstrate how scientific information and ideological preferences have reshaped the concept. The essay challenges the reader to assess some current assumptions about extinction and concludes by considering the shift in Darwin's own understanding from the "Origin" to the late "Autobiography".

Comparing life history characteristics of Lake Michigan’s naturalized and stocked Chinook Salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kerns, Janice A; Rogers, Mark W.; Bunnell, David B.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Collingsworth, Paris D.

2016-01-01

Lake Michigan supports popular fisheries for Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that have been sustained by stocking since the late 1960s. Natural recruitment of Chinook Salmon in Lake Michigan has increased in the past few decades and currently contributes more than 50% of Chinook Salmon recruits. We hypothesized that selective forces differ for naturalized populations born in the wild and hatchery populations, resulting in divergent life history characteristics with implications for Chinook Salmon population production and the Lake Michigan fishery. First, we conducted a historical analysis to determine if life history characteristics changed through time as the Chinook Salmon population became increasingly naturalized. Next, we conducted a 2-year field study of naturalized and hatchery stocked Chinook Salmon spawning populations to quantify differences in fecundity, egg size, timing of spawning, and size at maturity. In general, our results did not indicate significant life history divergence between naturalized and hatchery-stocked Chinook Salmon populations in Lake Michigan. Although historical changes in adult sex ratio were correlated with the proportion of naturalized individuals, changes in weight at maturity were better explained by density-dependent factors. The field study revealed no divergence in fecundity, timing of spawning, or size at maturity, and only small differences in egg size (hatchery > naturalized). For the near future, our results suggest that the limited life history differences observed between Chinook Salmon of naturalized and hatchery origin will not lead to large differences in characteristics important to the dynamics of the population or fishery.

Impacts of Intensified Agriculture Developments on Marsh Wetlands

PubMed Central

Luan, Zhaoqing; Zhou, Demin

2013-01-01

A spatiotemporal analysis on the changes in the marsh landscape in the Honghe National Nature Reserve, a Ramsar reserve, and the surrounding farms in the core area of the Sanjiang Plain during the past 30 years was conducted by integrating field survey work with remote sensing techniques. The results indicated that intensified agricultural development had transformed a unique natural marsh landscape into an agricultural landscape during the past 30 years. Ninety percent of the natural marsh wetlands have been lost, and the areas of the other natural landscapes have decreased very rapidly. Most dry farmland had been replaced by paddy fields during the progressive change of the natural landscape to a farm landscape. Attempts of current Chinese institutions in preserving natural wetlands have achieved limited success. Few marsh wetlands have remained healthy, even after the establishment of the nature reserve. Their ecological qualities have been declining in response to the increasing threats to the remaining wetland habitats. Irrigation projects play a key role in such threats. Therefore, the sustainability of the natural wetland ecosystems is being threatened by increased regional agricultural development which reduced the number of wetland ecotypes and damaged the ecological quality. PMID:24027441

Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere

PubMed Central

Santer, Benjamin D.; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Bonfils, Céline; Mears, Carl A.; Solomon, Susan; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Doutriaux, Charles; Gillett, Nathan P.; Taylor, Karl E.; Thorne, Peter W.; Wentz, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger “total” natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. PMID:24043789

Adaptation or Resistance: a classification of responses to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, J. A.

2016-02-01

Societal responses to sea level rise and associated coastal change are apparently diverse in nature and motivation. Most are commonly referred to as 'adaptation'. Based on a review of current practice, however, it is argued that many of these responses do not involve adaptation, but are rather resisting change. There are several instances where formerly adaptive initiatives involving human adaptability are being replaced by initiatives that resist change. A classification is presented that recognises a continuum of responses ranging from adaptation to resistance, depending upon the willingness to change human activities to accommodate environmental change. In many cases climate change adaptation resources are being used for projects that are purely resistant and which foreclose future adaptation options. It is argued that a more concise definition of adaptation is needed if coastal management is to move beyond the current position of holding the shoreline, other tah n in a few showcase examples.

Sociocultural Behavior Influence Modelling & Assessment: Current Work and Research Frontiers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernard, Michael Lewis

A common problem associated with the effort to better assess potential behaviors of various individuals within different countries is the shear difficulty in comprehending the dynamic nature of populations, particularly over time and considering feedback effects. This paper discusses a theory-based analytical capability designed to enable analysts to better assess the influence of events on individuals interacting within a country or region. These events can include changes in policy, man-made or natural disasters, migration, war, or other changes in environmental/economic conditions. In addition, this paper describes potential extensions of this type of research to enable more timely and accurate assessments.

Parallel Approach Separation and Controller Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-11-01

adjacent runways from the current minimum of 2.0 to 1.5 nautical miles (nmi). The possible impact of this alteration included changes in the nature and...for aircraft in trail on the same approach. 4. Determine if a change in separation standard affects controller work effort and if so, how. SIMULATION...practice effects should be minimal. 2. They can evaluate the realism of the simulation. 3. They are better able to evaluate the impact of any changes

Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

2014-05-01

Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention, cost benefit analysis, spatial distribution of costs and benefits

Site productivity - current estimates, change, and possible enhancements for the Northern Research Station

Treesearch

Scott A. Pugh

2012-01-01

Site productivity (SP) is the inherent capacity to grow crops of industrial wood. SP identifies the potential growth in cubic feet/acre/year and is based on the culmination of mean annual increment of fully stocked natural stands. Changes in SP were summarized for timberland and the associated effects on net growth and removal estimates were investigated using data...

Adjustments Needed in Vocational Agriculture Programs To Meet the Employment Needs of the Food and Fiber System in the Next Decade. A Position Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Association of Supervisors of Agricultural Education.

The image of the instructional program in vocational agriculture must be changed to reflect a scientific and futuristic nature. The future of vocational agriculture depends upon a willingness of the agricultural education profession to analyze current programs and adjust them to meet the changes of today's rapidly advancing biotechnology and…

Al Qaeda in Iraq: Demobilizing the Threat

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

of experiences and events in the “world out there”.10 The most effective frames concurrently persuade the heart, mind and emotions ( ethos , logos ...examine the current status of the counterinsurgency operations and stabilization effort in Iraq. Trend-analysis tracks changes in key indicators...tracks changes in key indicators through time underscoring areas for concern and areas of positive movement. Based on the nature of AQI and the

Distant magnetic field effects associated with Birkeland currents /made possible by the evaluation of TRIAD's attitude oscillations/

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gustafsson, G.; Potemra, T. A.; Favin, S.; Saflekos, N. A.

1981-10-01

Principal oscillations of the TRIAD satellite are studied in 150 passes and are identified as the librations of a gravity-stabilized satellite. The libration periods are T(O)/2 and T(O)/(3) exp 1/2, where T(O) is the orbit period of about 100 min. The amplitude and phase change over periods of a few days, sometimes vanishing altogether, and these attitude changes are numerically evaluated and removed. Data from three consecutive passes spanning over three hours show a magnetic profile which extends as far as 10 deg in latitude from a single region 1 Birkeland current sheet, confirming the permanent and global nature of large-scale Birkeland currents.

[Effects of land use change on soil active organic carbon in deep soils in Hilly Loess Plateau region of Northwest China].

PubMed

Zhang, Shuai; Xu, Ming-Xiang; Zhang, Ya-Feng; Wang, Chao-Hua; Chen, Gai

2015-02-01

Response of soil active organic carbon to land-use change has become a hot topic in current soil carbon and nutrient cycling study. Soil active organic carbon distribution characteristics in soil profile under four land-use types were investigated in Ziwuling forest zone of the Hilly Loess Plateau region. The four types of land-use changes included natural woodland converted into artificial woodland, natural woodland converted into cropland, natural shrubland converted into cropland and natural shrubland converted into revegetated grassland. Effects of land-use changes on soil active organic carbon in deep soil layers (60-200 cm) were explored by comparison with the shallow soil layers (0-60 cm). The results showed that: (1) The labile organic carbon ( LOC) and microbial carbon (MBC) content were mainly concentrated in the shallow 0-60 cm soil, which accounted for 49%-66% and 71%-84% of soil active organic carbon in the profile (0-200 cm) under different land-use types. Soil active organic carbon content in shallow soil was significantly varied for the land-use changes types, while no obvious difference was observed in soil active organic carbon in deep soil layer. (2) Land-use changes exerted significant influence on soil active organic carbon, the active organic carbon in shallow soil was more sensitive than that in deep soil. The four types of land-use changes, including natural woodland to planted woodland, natural woodland to cropland, natural shrubland to revegetated grassland and natural shrubland to cropland, LOC in shallow soil was reduced by 10%, 60%, 29%, 40% and LOC in the deep layer was decreased by 9%, 21%, 12%, 1%, respectively. MBC in the shallow soil was reduced by 24% 73%, 23%, 56%, and that in the deep layer was decreased by 25%, 18%, 8% and 11%, respectively. (Land-use changes altered the distribution ratio of active organic carbon in soil profile. The ratio between LOC and SOC in shallow soil increased when natural woodland and shrubland were converted into farmland, but no obvious difference was observed in deep soil. The ratio of MBC/SOC in shallow soil decreased when natural shrubland was converted into farmland, also, no significant difference was detected in the ratio of MBC/SOC for other land-use change types. The results suggested that land-use change exerted significant influence on soil active organic carbon content and distribution proportion in soil profile. Soil organic carbon in deep soil was more stable than that in shallow soil.

What is Novel About Novel Ecosystems: Managing Change in an Ever-Changing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truitt, Amy M.; Granek, Elise F.; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Goldsmith, Kaitlin A.; Jordan, Meredith P.; Yazzie, Kimberly C.

2015-06-01

Influenced by natural climatic, geological, and evolutionary changes, landscapes and the ecosystems within are continuously changing. In addition to these natural pressures, anthropogenic drivers have increasingly influenced ecosystems. Whether affected by natural or anthropogenic processes, ecosystems, ecological communities, and ecosystem functioning are dynamic and can lead to "novel" or "emerging" ecosystems. Current literature identifies several definitions of these ecosystems but lacks an unambiguous definition and framework for categorizing what constitutes a novel ecosystem and for informing decisions around best management practices. Here we explore the various definitions used for novel ecosystems, present an unambiguous definition, and propose a framework for identifying the most appropriate management option. We identify and discuss three approaches for managing novel ecosystems: managing against, tolerating, and managing for these systems, and we provide real-world examples of each approach. We suggest that this framework will allow managers to make thoughtful decisions about which strategy is most appropriate for each unique situation, to determine whether the strategy is working, and to facilitate decision-making when it is time to modify the management approach.

What is Novel About Novel Ecosystems: Managing Change in an Ever-Changing World.

PubMed

Truitt, Amy M; Granek, Elise F; Duveneck, Matthew J; Goldsmith, Kaitlin A; Jordan, Meredith P; Yazzie, Kimberly C

2015-06-01

Influenced by natural climatic, geological, and evolutionary changes, landscapes and the ecosystems within are continuously changing. In addition to these natural pressures, anthropogenic drivers have increasingly influenced ecosystems. Whether affected by natural or anthropogenic processes, ecosystems, ecological communities, and ecosystem functioning are dynamic and can lead to "novel" or "emerging" ecosystems. Current literature identifies several definitions of these ecosystems but lacks an unambiguous definition and framework for categorizing what constitutes a novel ecosystem and for informing decisions around best management practices. Here we explore the various definitions used for novel ecosystems, present an unambiguous definition, and propose a framework for identifying the most appropriate management option. We identify and discuss three approaches for managing novel ecosystems: managing against, tolerating, and managing for these systems, and we provide real-world examples of each approach. We suggest that this framework will allow managers to make thoughtful decisions about which strategy is most appropriate for each unique situation, to determine whether the strategy is working, and to facilitate decision-making when it is time to modify the management approach.

Adiabatic quantum pump in a zigzag graphene nanoribbon junction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lin

2015-11-01

The adiabatic electron transport is theoretically studied in a zigzag graphene nanoribbon (ZGNR) junction with two time-dependent pumping electric fields. By modeling a ZGNR p-n junction and applying the Keldysh Green’s function method, we find that a pumped charge current is flowing in the device at a zero external bias, which mainly comes from the photon-assisted tunneling process and the valley selection rule in an even-chain ZGNR junction. The pumped charge current and its ON and OFF states can be efficiently modulated by changing the system parameters such as the pumping frequency, the pumping phase difference, and the Fermi level. A ferromagnetic ZGNR device is also studied to generate a pure spin current and a fully polarized spin current due to the combined spin pump effect and the valley valve effect. Our finding might pave the way to manipulate the degree of freedom of electrons in a graphene-based electronic device. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 110704033), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China (Grant No. BK2010416), and the Natural Science Foundation for Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province, China (Grant No. 13KJB140005).

We Can Change the Natural History of Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Ratner, Robert E.; Buse, John B.; Kahn, Steven E.

2014-01-01

As diabetes develops, we currently waste the first ∼10 years of the natural history. If we found prediabetes and early diabetes when they first presented and treated them more effectively, we could prevent or delay the progression of hyperglycemia and the development of complications. Evidence for this comes from trials where lifestyle change and/or glucose-lowering medications decreased progression from prediabetes to diabetes. After withdrawal of these interventions, there was no “catch-up”—cumulative development of diabetes in the previously treated groups remained less than in control subjects. Moreover, achieving normal glucose levels even transiently during the trials was associated with a substantial reduction in subsequent development of diabetes. These findings indicate that we can change the natural history through routine screening to find prediabetes and early diabetes, combined with management aimed to keep glucose levels as close to normal as possible, without hypoglycemia. We should also test the hypothesis with a randomized controlled trial. PMID:25249668

Using natural language processing to analyze physician modifications to data entry templates.

PubMed Central

Wilcox, Adam B.; Narus, Scott P.; Bowes, Watson A.

2002-01-01

Efficient data entry by clinicians remains a significant challenge for electronic medical records. Current approaches have largely focused on either structured data entry, which can be limiting in expressive power, or free-text entry, which restricts the use of the data for automated decision support. Text-based templates are a semi-structured data entry method that has been used to assist physicians in manually entering clinical notes, by allowing them to edit predefined example notes. We analyzed changes made to 18,726 sentences from text templates, using a natural language processor. The most common changes were addition or deletion of normal observations, or changes in certainty. We identified common modifications that could be captured in structured form by a graphical user interface. PMID:12463955

The electric field changes and UHF radiations caused by the triggered lightning in Japan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawasaki, Zen-Ichiro; Kanao, Tadashi; Matsuura, Kenji; Nakano, Minoru; Horii, Kenji; Nakamura, Koichi

1991-01-01

In the rocket triggered lightning experiment of fiscal 1989, researchers observed electromagnetic field changes and UHF electromagnetic radiation accompanying rocket triggered lightning. It was found that no rapid changes corresponding to the return stroke of natural lightning were observed in the electric field changes accompanying rocket triggered lightning. However, continuous currents were present. In the case of rocket triggered lightning to the tower, electromagnetic field changes corresponding to the initiation of triggered lightning showed a bipolar pulse of a relatively large amplitude. In contrast, the rocket triggered lightning to the ground did not have such a bipolar pulse. The UHF radiation accompanying the rocket triggered lightning preceded the waveform portions corresponding to the first changes in electromagnetic fields. The number of isolated pulses in the UHF radiation showed a correlation with the time duration from rocket launching up to triggered lightning. The time interval between consecutive isolated pulses tended to get shorter with the passage of time, just like the stepped leaders of natural lightning.

The Face of Alaska: A Look at Land Cover and the Potential Drivers of Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Benjamin M.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this report is to provide statewide baseline information on the status and potential drivers of land-cover change in Alaska. The information gathered for this report is based on a review and analysis of published literature and consists of prominent factors contributing to the current state of the land surface of Alaska as well as a synthesis of information about the status and trends of the factors affecting the land surface of Alaska. The land surface of Alaska is sparsely populated and the impacts from humans are far less extensive when compared to the contiguous United States. The changes in the population and the economy of Alaska have historically been driven by boom and bust cycles, primarily from mineral discoveries, logging, military expansion, and oil and gas development; however, the changes as a result of these factors have occurred in relatively small, localized areas. Many of the large-scale statewide changes taking place in the land surface however, are a result of natural or climate driven processes as opposed to direct anthropogenic activities. In recent times, reports such as this have become increasingly useful as a means of synthesizing information about the magnitude and frequency of changes imparted by natural and anthropogenic forces. Thus, it is essential to assess the current state of the land surface of Alaska and identify apparent trends in the surficial changes that are occurring in order to be prepared for the future.

Mid-infrared spectroscopy for characterization of Baltic amber (succinite)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner-Wysiecka, Ewa

2018-05-01

Natural Baltic amber (succinite) is the most appreciated fossil resin of the rich cultural traditions dating back to prehistoric times. Its unequivocal identification is extremely important in many branches of science and trades including archeology, paleontology, chemistry and finally mineralogical and gemological societies. Current methods of modification of natural succinite are more and more sophisticated making the identification of natural Baltic amber often challenging. In article the systematic analytical approach for identification of natural and modified under different conditions succinite, using mid-infrared spectroscopy (transmission, Drifts and ATR techniques) is presented. The correlation between spectral characteristics and properties of succinite is discussed pointing that the understanding of the nature of changes is the key of identification of this precious material.

How Natural is the Dissolved Inorganic Composition of Mississippi River Water?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peucker-Ehrenbrink, B.; Johnson, S. T.; Meaux, S. J.; Brown, K.; Blum, M. J.; Allison, M. A.; Halder, J.; Wassenaar, L. I.; Cuesta, A. M.; Norris, E. S.; Wang, R. S.

2017-12-01

The dissolved inorganic composition of rivers provides insights into natural interactions between the hydrologic cycle and the "critical zone" of watersheds, and anthropogenic modifications thereof. For instance, major ion compositions allow us to infer how effectively weathering processes counteract increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Prerequisite to such assessments is the ability to detect and correct for anthropogenic modifications of river chemistry. An observatory campaign of the Mississippi River in New Orleans from July 2015 to October 2016 with an in-situ sensor system (LOBO-SUNA) and 161 discrete water sampling events reveals systematic changes in the dissolved ion and water stable isotope compositions, nutrient loading, and physical parameters of the Mississippi River. Monthly sampling has continued since as part of the Global Rivers Observatory. We compare this high-resolution data set to long-term data generated by the USGS at St. Francisville upstream of Baton Rouge, data from the USGS Baton Rouge gaging station and in-situ sensor system, as well as other historic data. Results reveal systematic changes in major ion composition in response to hydrologic conditions. In addition to annual and interannual changes, decadal trends in concentrations of certain major ions (Na, Mg, Ca) are consistent with anthropogenic activities in the drainage basin that are reminiscent of well-known, long-term changes in nutrient fluxes that affect the northern Gulf of Mexico. Our current working hypotheses to explain observed increases in Mg and Na concentrations, for example, are contaminations from road salt, from additives used in drinking and waste water treatment, as well as from groundwater pumping, particularly in the western part of the Mississippi River basin. Uncorrected, these changes impede our abilitiy to use the current chemical composition of Mississippi River water as a quantitative indicator of natural processes in the watershed.

Gateless AlGaN/GaN HEMT response to block co-polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, B. S.; Louche, G.; Duran, R. S.; Gnanou, Y.; Pearton, S. J.; Ren, F.

2004-05-01

Gateless AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) structures exhibit large changes in source-drain current upon exposing the gate region to various block co-polymer solutions. The polar nature of some of these polymer chains lead to a change of surface charges in gate region on the HEMT, producing a change in surface potential at the semiconductor/liquid interface. The nitride sensors appear to be promising for a wide range of chemical gas, combustion gas, liquid and strain sensing.

Global climate change and children's health.

PubMed

Shea, Katherine M

2007-11-01

There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to this change.

Rasch Analysis of Scientific Literacy in an Astronomical Citizen Science Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, A.

2012-06-01

(Abstract only) We investigate change in attitudes towards science and belief in the nature of science by participants in a citizen science project about astronomy. A pre-test was given to 1,385 participants and a post-test was given six months later to 165 participants. Nine participants were interviewed. Responses were analyzed using the Rasch Rating Scale Model to place Likert data on an interval scale allowing for more sensitive parametric analysis. Results show that overall attitudes did not change, p = .225. However, there was significant change towards attitudes relating to science news (positive) and scientific self efficacy (negative), p = .001 and p = .035, respectively. This change was related to social activity in the project. Beliefs in the nature of science exhibited a small but significant increase, p = .04. Relative positioning of scores on the belief items suggests the increase is mostly due to reinforcement of current beliefs.

Rasch Analysis of Scientific Literacy in an Astronomical Citizen Science Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Aaron

2011-05-01

We investigate change in attitudes towards science and belief in the nature of science by participants in a citizen science project about astronomy. A pre-test was given to 1,385 participants and a post-test was given six months later to 165 participants. Nine participants were interviewed. Responses were analyzed using the Rasch Rating Scale Model to place Likert data on an interval scale allowing for more sensitive parametric analysis. Results show that overall attitudes did not change, p = .225. However, there was significant change towards attitudes relating to science news (positive) and scientific self efficacy (negative), p < .001 and p = .035 respectively. This change was related to social activity in the project. Beliefs in the nature of science exhibited a small, but significant increase, p = .04. Relative positioning of scores on the belief items suggests the increase is mostly due to reinforcement of current beliefs.

Making Democracy Matter: Responsibility and Effective Environmental Governance in Regional Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wallington, Tabatha J.; Lawrence, Geoffrey

2008-01-01

This paper will critically examine the changing social relations of responsibility associated with Australia's current regional "experiment" in environmental governance. This experiment centrally involves the transfer of responsibility for natural resource management (NRM) from Federal and State governments to community-based regional…

Tongass National Forest Transportation System Opportunity Study : Final Report for Hoonah and Wrangell Ranger Districts.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-07-01

Tongass National Forest (NF) is in Southeast Alaska, a region rich in natural and cultural resources, which is currently undergoing significant economic change. This study examines how the existing assets of the Tongass NF's transportation system can...

Why bother about wildlife disease?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friend, Milton

2014-01-01

In most developed countries, the maintenance of the numbers of wildlife1 is vested in the natural resource agencies of those countries. During earlier times, game species were the primary focus of natural resource agencies2,3 however, current wildlife conservation continues to transition towards a more holistic focus on biodiversity4 and environmental health5,6. Nevertheless, that transition lags behind in addressing wildlife disease in “…the struggle for existence between different forms of life…”.7 Thus, the primary objective of this presentation is to provide a pragmatic assessment of wildlife disease that is irrespective of one’s orientation towards wildlife conservation. A secondary objective is to highlight the changing role of disease over time as a wildlife conservation factor. That transition is relevant to the insights provided for current and future efforts focused on sustaining global biodiversity and desired levels of wildlife populations in nature.

Oil Palm expansion over Southeast Asia: land use change and air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, S. J.; Heald, C. L.; Geddes, J.; Marlier, M. E.; Austin, K.; Kasibhatla, P. S.

2015-12-01

Over recent decades oil palm plantations have rapidly expanded across Southeast Asia (SEA). Much of this expansion has come at the expense of natural forests and grasslands. Aircraft measurements from a 2008 campaign, OP3, found that oil palm plantations emit as much as 7 times more isoprene than nearby natural forests. Furthermore, SEA is a rapidly developing region, with increasing urban population, and growing air quality concerns. Thus, SEA represents an ideal case study to examine the impacts of land use change on air quality in the region, and whether those changes can be detected from satellite observations of atmospheric composition. We investigate the impacts of historical and future oil palm expansion in SEA using satellite data, high-resolution land maps, and the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. We examine the impact of palm plantations on surface-atmosphere processes (dry deposition, biogenic emissions). We show the sensitivity of air quality to current and future oil palm expansion scenarios, and discuss the limitations of current satellite measurements in capturing these changes. Our results indicate that while the impact of oil palm expansion on air quality can be significant, the retrieval error and sensitivity of the satellite measurements limit our ability to observe these impacts from space.

The role of the oceans in changes of the Earth's climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Schuckmann, K.

2016-12-01

Any changes to the Earth's climate system affect an imbalance of the Earth's energy budget due to natural or human made climate forcing. The current positive Earth's energy imbalance is mostly caused by human activity, and is driving global warming. Variations in the world's ocean heat storage and its associated volume changes are a key factor to gauge global warming, to assess changes in the Earth's energy budget and to estimate contributions to the global sea level budget. Present-day sea-level rise is one of the major symptoms of the current positive Earth Energy Imbalance. Sea level also responds to natural climate variability that is superimposing and altering the global warming signal. The most prominent signature in the global mean sea level interannual variability is caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It has been also shown that sea level variability in other regions of the Indo-Pacific area significantly alters estimates of the rate of sea level rise, i.e. in the Indonesian archipelago. In summary, improving the accuracy of our estimates of global Earth's climate state and variability is critical for advancing the understanding and prediction of the evolution of our climate, and an overview on recent findings on the role of the global ocean in changes of the Earth's climate system with particular focus on sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific region will be given in this contribution.

Current and emerging business models in the health care information technology industry: a view from wall street.

PubMed

Frank, Seth

2003-01-01

When we think about health care IT, we don't just think about clinical automation with the movement to computerized physician order entry (CPOE), but also the need to upgrade legacy financial and administrative systems to interact with clinical systems. Technology acceptance by physicians remains low, and computer use by physicians for data entry and analysis remains minimal. We expect this trend to change, and expect increased automation to represent gradual change. The HCIT space is dynamic, with many opportunities, but also many challenges. The unique nature of the end market buyers, existing business models, and nature of the technology makes this a challenging but dynamic area for equity investment.

Natural selection on plant physiological traits in an urban environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambrecht, Susan C.; Mahieu, Stephanie; Cheptou, Pierre-Olivier

2016-11-01

Current rates of urbanization are creating new opportunities for studying urban plant ecology, but our knowledge of urban plant physiology lags behind that of other ecosystems. Moreover, higher temperatures, elevated CO2, and increased inorganic nitrogen deposition along with altered moisture regimes of urban as compared to rural areas creates a compelling analog for studying adaptations of plants to climate change. We grew plants under common conditions in a greenhouse to determine whether populations of Crepis sancta (Asteraceae) differed in phenological, morphological, and physiological traits. We also used a field experiment to test for natural selection on these traits in urban Montpellier, France. Urban plants flowered and senesced later than rural plants, and natural selection favored later phenology in the urban habitat. Natural selection also favored larger plants with more leaves, and increased photosynthesis and leaf nitrogen concentration. Ours is the first study to document selection on plant functional traits in an urban habitat and, as such, advances our understanding of urban plant ecology and possible adaptations to climate change.

Stage-Specific Changes in Physiological and Life-History Responses to Elevated Temperature and Pco2 during the Larval Development of the European Lobster Homarus gammarus (L.).

PubMed

Small, Daniel P; Calosi, Piero; Boothroyd, Dominic; Widdicombe, Steve; Spicer, John I

2015-01-01

An organism's physiological processes form the link between its life-history traits and the prevailing environmental conditions, especially in species with complex life cycles. Understanding how these processes respond to changing environmental conditions, thereby affecting organismal development, is critical if we are to predict the biological implications of current and future global climate change. However, much of our knowledge is derived from adults or single developmental stages. Consequently, we investigated the metabolic rate, organic content, carapace mineralization, growth, and survival across each larval stage of the European lobster Homarus gammarus, reared under current and predicted future ocean warming and acidification scenarios. Larvae exhibited stage-specific changes in the temperature sensitivity of their metabolic rate. Elevated Pco2 increased C∶N ratios and interacted with elevated temperature to affect carapace mineralization. These changes were linked to concomitant changes in survivorship and growth, from which it was concluded that bottlenecks were evident during H. gammarus larval development in stages I and IV, the transition phases between the embryonic and pelagic larval stages and between the larval and megalopa stages, respectively. We therefore suggest that natural changes in optimum temperature during ontogeny will be key to larvae survival in a future warmer ocean. The interactions of these natural changes with elevated temperature and Pco2 significantly alter physiological condition and body size of the last larval stage before the transition from a planktonic to a benthic life style. Thus, living and growing in warm, hypercapnic waters could compromise larval lobster growth, development, and recruitment.

Landauer-Büttiker Approach to Strongly Coupled Quantum Thermodynamics: Inside-Outside Duality of Entropy Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruch, Anton; Lewenkopf, Caio; von Oppen, Felix

2018-03-01

We develop a Landauer-Büttiker theory of entropy evolution in time-dependent, strongly coupled electron systems. The formalism naturally avoids the problem of the system-bath distinction by defining the entropy current in the attached leads. This current can then be used to infer changes of the entropy of the system which we refer to as the inside-outside duality. We carry out this program in an adiabatic expansion up to first order beyond the quasistatic limit. When combined with particle and energy currents, as well as the work required to change an external potential, our formalism provides a full thermodynamic description, applicable to arbitrary noninteracting electron systems in contact with reservoirs. This provides a clear understanding of the relation between heat and entropy currents generated by time-dependent potentials and their connection to the occurring dissipation.

Teaching OOA: Issues and Challenges.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sim, Edward

This paper presents the argument that object oriented analysis (OOA) is rapidly becoming an important systems analysis methodology and that current systems analysis and design courses should present OOA. However, because of the embryonic nature and rapidly changing content of OOA, instructors are faced with special challenges when designing OOA…

Redefining the Speed Limit of Phase Change Memory Revealed by Time-resolved Steep Threshold-Switching Dynamics of AgInSbTe Devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Krishna Dayal; Saxena, Nishant; Durai, Suresh; Manivannan, Anbarasu

2016-11-01

Although phase-change memory (PCM) offers promising features for a ‘universal memory’ owing to high-speed and non-volatility, achieving fast electrical switching remains a key challenge. In this work, a correlation between the rate of applied voltage and the dynamics of threshold-switching is investigated at picosecond-timescale. A distinct characteristic feature of enabling a rapid threshold-switching at a critical voltage known as the threshold voltage as validated by an instantaneous response of steep current rise from an amorphous off to on state is achieved within 250 picoseconds and this is followed by a slower current rise leading to crystallization. Also, we demonstrate that the extraordinary nature of threshold-switching dynamics in AgInSbTe cells is independent to the rate of applied voltage unlike other chalcogenide-based phase change materials exhibiting the voltage dependent transient switching characteristics. Furthermore, numerical solutions of time-dependent conduction process validate the experimental results, which reveal the electronic nature of threshold-switching. These findings of steep threshold-switching of ‘sub-50 ps delay time’, opens up a new way for achieving high-speed non-volatile memory for mainstream computing.

Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland.

PubMed

O'Driscoll, Connie; Ledesma, José L J; Coll, John; Murnane, John G; Nolan, Paul; Mockler, Eva M; Futter, Martyn N; Xiao, Liwen W

2018-07-15

Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Need for a marginal methodology in assessing natural gas system methane emissions in response to incremental consumption.

PubMed

Mac Kinnon, Michael; Heydarzadeh, Zahra; Doan, Quy; Ngo, Cuong; Reed, Jeff; Brouwer, Jacob

2018-05-17

Accurate quantification of methane emissions from the natural gas system is important for establishing greenhouse gas inventories and understanding cause and effect for reducing emissions. Current carbon intensity methods generally assume methane emissions are proportional to gas throughput so that increases in gas consumption yield linear increases in emitted methane. However, emissions sources are diverse and many are not proportional to throughput. Insights into the causal drivers of system methane emissions, and how system-wide changes affect such drivers are required. The development of a novel cause-based methodology to assess marginal methane emissions per unit of fuel consumed is introduced. The carbon intensities of technologies consuming natural gas are critical metrics currently used in policy decisions for reaching environmental goals. For example, the low-carbon fuel standard in California uses carbon intensity to determine incentives provided. Current methods generally assume methane emissions from the natural gas system are completely proportional to throughput. The proposed cause-based marginal emissions method will provide a better understanding of the actual drivers of emissions to support development of more effective mitigation measures. Additionally, increasing the accuracy of carbon intensity calculations supports the development of policies that can maximize the environmental benefits of alternative fuels, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

An Experimental Work On The Electrical Conductivity Of PEG Under Changing Relative Humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdamar, O.; Skarlatos, Y.; Aktas, G.; Inci, M. N.

2007-04-01

Polyethylene glycol (PEG) thin films are investigated experimentally. Dc measurements are done under changing relative humidity (rh) to study the change in the electrical conductivity. Upto 70 % rh, electronic conduction takes place with the increase in the current as a result of the absorbed water. Around 70 % rh, the polymer melts from the semicrystalline form, the water vapor condenses and conduction begins to take an ionic nature. At that point, the current shows a sudden increase. After 75 % rh, the conductivity shows irregularities with respect to the increase in rh. There is a hysterisis between the absorption and desorption of water as the film can not get its pre-absorption form, which can be maintained after drying the sample, in the time interval of desorption.

Field-scale observations of a transient geobattery resulting from natural attenuation of a crude oil spill

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heenan, Jeffrey; Ntarlagiannis, Dimitris; Slater, Lee; Beaver, Carol; Rossbach, S.; Revil, A.; Atekwana, E.A.; Bekins, Barbara A.

2017-01-01

We present evidence of a geobattery associated with microbial degradation of a mature crude oil spill. Self-potential measurements were collected using a vertical array of nonpolarizing electrodes, starting at the land surface and passing through the smear zone where seasonal water table fluctuations have resulted in the coating of hydrocarbons on the aquifer solids. These passive electrical potential measurements exhibit a dipolar pattern associated with a current source. The anodic and cathodic reactions of this natural battery occur below and above the smear zone, respectively. The smear zone is characterized by high magnetic susceptibility values associated with the precipitation of semiconductive magnetic iron phase minerals as a by-product of biodegradation, facilitating electron transfer between the anode and the cathode. This geobattery response appears to have a transient nature, changing on a monthly scale, probably resulting from chemical and physical changes in subsurface conditions such as water table fluctuations.

Natural gas and CO2 price variation: impact on the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipelines.

PubMed

Ulvestad, Marte; Overland, Indra

2012-06-01

THIS ARTICLE DEVELOPS A FORMAL MODEL FOR COMPARING THE COST STRUCTURE OF THE TWO MAIN TRANSPORT OPTIONS FOR NATURAL GAS: liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines. In particular, it evaluates how variations in the prices of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions affect the relative cost-efficiency of these two options. Natural gas is often promoted as the most environmentally friendly of all fossil fuels, and LNG as a modern and efficient way of transporting it. Some research has been carried out into the local environmental impact of LNG facilities, but almost none into aspects related to climate change. This paper concludes that at current price levels for natural gas and CO 2 emissions the distance from field to consumer and the volume of natural gas transported are the main determinants of transport costs. The pricing of natural gas and greenhouse emissions influence the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipeline transport, but only to a limited degree at current price levels. Because more energy is required for the LNG process (especially for fuelling the liquefaction process) than for pipelines at distances below 9100 km, LNG is more exposed to variability in the price of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions up to this distance. If the prices of natural gas and/or greenhouse gas emission rise dramatically in the future, this will affect the choice between pipelines and LNG. Such a price increase will be favourable for pipelines relative to LNG.

Natural gas and CO2 price variation: impact on the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipelines

PubMed Central

Ulvestad, Marte; Overland, Indra

2012-01-01

This article develops a formal model for comparing the cost structure of the two main transport options for natural gas: liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipelines. In particular, it evaluates how variations in the prices of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions affect the relative cost-efficiency of these two options. Natural gas is often promoted as the most environmentally friendly of all fossil fuels, and LNG as a modern and efficient way of transporting it. Some research has been carried out into the local environmental impact of LNG facilities, but almost none into aspects related to climate change. This paper concludes that at current price levels for natural gas and CO2 emissions the distance from field to consumer and the volume of natural gas transported are the main determinants of transport costs. The pricing of natural gas and greenhouse emissions influence the relative cost-efficiency of LNG and pipeline transport, but only to a limited degree at current price levels. Because more energy is required for the LNG process (especially for fuelling the liquefaction process) than for pipelines at distances below 9100 km, LNG is more exposed to variability in the price of natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions up to this distance. If the prices of natural gas and/or greenhouse gas emission rise dramatically in the future, this will affect the choice between pipelines and LNG. Such a price increase will be favourable for pipelines relative to LNG. PMID:24683269

Evolutionary change and phylogenetic relationships in light of horizontal gene transfer.

PubMed

Boto, Luis

2015-06-01

Horizontal gene transfer has, over the past 25 years, become a part of evolutionary thinking. In the present paper I discuss horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in relation to contingency, natural selection, evolutionary change speed and the Tree-of-Life endeavour, with the aim of contributing to the understanding of the role of HGT in evolutionary processes. In addition, the challenges that HGT imposes on the current view of evolution are emphasized.

Enhancing Participation in the U.S. Global Change Research Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Washington, Warren; Lee, Kai; Arent, Doug

2016-02-29

The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. As the understanding of global change has evolved over the past decades and as demand for scientific information on global change has increased, the USGCRP has increasingly focused on research that can inform decisions to cope with current climate variability and change, to reduce the magnitude of future changes, and to prepare for changes projected over coming decades. Overall, the currentmore » breadth and depth of research in these agencies is insufficient to meet the country's needs, particularly to support decision makers. This report provides a rationale for evaluating current program membership and capabilities and identifying potential new agencies and departments in the hopes that these changes will enable the program to more effectively inform the public and prepare for the future. It also offers actionable recommendations for adjustments to the methods and procedures that will allow the program to better meet its stated goals.« less

What is motivating middle-school science teachers to teach climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeal, Peggy; Petcovic, Heather; Reeves, Patricia

2017-05-01

Adoption of science content standards that include anthropogenic climate change has prompted widespread instruction in climate change for the first time. However, the controversial nature of the topic can be daunting and many teachers share misconceptions that lead to weak treatment of climate change in classrooms. Nevertheless, numerous teachers have embraced the topic and are providing illustrations of deliberate climate change education. In this study we investigated teacher motivation using focus groups with middle school teachers who currently teach climate change. Qualitative analysis of the collective teacher voices yielded underlying motivations. Our findings suggest that these teachers' interest in environmentalism naturally translates to climate change advocacy and motivates teaching the topic. Their knowledge and expertise gives them confidence to teach it. These teachers see themselves as scientists, therefore their views align with the scientific consensus. They practice authentic scientific research with their students, thus confirming valued characteristics of their scientist identity. Finally, our findings suggest that teaching climate change gives these teachers a sense of hope as they impact the future through their students. This study contrasts with skepticism over the state of climate change education and contributes to an understanding of how climate change education is motivated in teachers.

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

2007-01-01

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

76 FR 70535 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-14

...-0092. Type of Review: Extension without change of a currently approved collection. Title: Marks on Wine Containers, TTB REC 5120/3. Abstract: TTB requires that wine on wine premises be identified by statements of... approved collection. Title: Certification of Proper Cellar Treatment for Imported Natural Wine. Abstract...

Role of Technology in Decision Making: Exploring Land-Use Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zaino, Maureen A.

2012-01-01

Increases in population, climatic changes, and other environmental issues are current challenges affecting the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) decision to examine land-use trends and emphasize efficient use and reuse of limited resources. Because of global concerns involving limited natural resources, researchers recognize land-use decision…

The Public Dimension of Broadcasting: Learning from the Canadian Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raboy, Marc

The political context surrounding Canadian broadcasting dramatically changed following the election of a conservative government in 1984, and Canada's current broadcasting debate is marked by national and special interest concerns. While an important social aspect of the system is its profoundly undemocratic nature, the constituent elements of a…

Intergovernmental Relations and the Governance of Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Roald F.

Schools are currently under the many strains and stresses involving change, such as concern with the nature and purpose of schools, the growth of alternative systems, the push for new structures, the demands of new participants, financial worries, and interventions from State and national agencies. Each of these strains creates problems in…

The Wisdom of Scientific Inquiry on Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glass, Gene V.

1972-01-01

Under current conditions evaluative research based on curriculum products of master teachers using basic knowledge from the social and natural sciences is more likely to contribute to the improvement of educational practice than is an attempt to build theories of teaching based upon rapidly changing philosophy and technique. (AL)

Multimodal Application for Foreign Language Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magal-Royo, Teresa; Gimenez-Lopez, Jose Luis; Pairy, Blas; Garcia-Laborda, Jesus; Gonzalez-Del Rio, Jimena

2011-01-01

The current development of educational applications for language learning has experienced a qualitative change in the criteria of interaction between users and devices due to the technological advances of input and output data through keyboard, mouse, stylus, tactile screen, etc. The multiple interactions generated in a natural way by humans…

77 FR 22286 - NCAnet: Building a Network of Networks in Support of the National Climate Assessment (NCA)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-13

... effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and..., NCADAC recognizes and seeks to leverage the important and growing distributed science capabilities and... communities, professional societies, and private industry represent currently untapped assets and diverse...

AN EVALUATION OF HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO 25 YEARS OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE IN A SEMI-ARID WATERSHED

EPA Science Inventory

The assessment of land use and land cover is an extremely important activity for contemporary land management. A large body of current literature suggests that human land-use practices are the most important factor influencing natural resource management at multiple scales. D...

75 FR 68217 - Acquisition Regulation: Agency Supplementary Regulations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-05

... amending the Department of Energy Acquisition Regulation (DEAR) on DOE Management and Operating Contracts..., and update references. Today's rule does not alter substantive rights or obligations under current law... Contracts to conform it to the FAR. None of today's changes are substantive or of a nature to cause any...

75 FR 37358 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Revised Critical Habitat for the Arroyo Toad

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-29

... whether the DEA makes appropriate assumptions regarding current practices and any regulatory changes that... from adverse modification or destruction of critical habitat. In practice, situations with a Federal... Newhall Land and Farming Company (Newhall LFC). Newhall LFC developed the Natural River Management Plan...

Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate Events: Foundation for a Climate Resilience Screening Index

EPA Science Inventory

The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and g...

A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change.

PubMed

Roger, Erin; Duursma, Daisy Englert; Downey, Paul O; Gallagher, Rachael V; Hughes, Lesley; Steel, Jackie; Johnson, Stephen B; Leishman, Michelle R

2015-08-15

Predicting the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation of management actions for alien plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate the potential of future changes in climate conditions to influence the distribution of alien plant species. Here, we develop an Australia-wide screening tool to assess the potential of naturalised alien plants to establish and spread under both current and future climatic conditions. The screening tool developed uses five spatially explicit criteria to establish the likelihood of alien plant population establishment and expansion under baseline climate conditions and future climates for the decades 2035 and 2065. Alien plants are then given a threat rating according to current and future threat to enable natural resource managers to focus on those species that pose the largest potential threat now and in the future. To demonstrate the screening tool, we present results for a representative sample of approximately 10% (n = 292) of Australia's known, naturalised alien plant species. Overall, most alien plant species showed decreases in area of habitat suitability under future conditions compared to current conditions and therefore the threat rating of most alien plant species declined between current and future conditions. Use of the screening tool is intended to assist natural resource managers in assessing the threat of alien plant establishment and spread under current and future conditions and thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments for those species that pose the greatest threat. The screening tool is associated with a searchable database for all 292 alien plant species across a range of spatial scales, available through an interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Hybrid Zones: Windows on Climate Change

PubMed Central

Larson, Erica L.; Harrison, Richard G.

2016-01-01

Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor species' responses to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semi-permeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change. PMID:25982153

Modelling consequences of change in biodiversity and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This chapter offers an assessment of the rapidly changing landscape of methods assessing and forecasting the benefits that people receive from nature and how these benefits are shaped by institutions and various anthropogenic assets. There has been an explosion of activity in understanding and modeling the benefits that people receive from nature, and this explosion has provided a diversity of approaches that are both complementary and contradictory. However, there remain major gaps in what current models can do. They are not well suited to estimate most types of benefits at national, regional, or global scales. they are focused on decision analysis, but have not focused on implementation, learning, or dialogue. This hap in particular means that current models are not well suited to bridging among multiple knowledge systems, however, there are initial efforts made towards this goal. Furthermore, while participatory social-ecological scenarios are able to bridge multiple knowledge systems in their assessment and analysis of multiple ecosystem series, the social-ecological scenarios community is fragmented and not well connected. Consequently, IPBES has an excellent knowledge base to build upon, but a real investment in building a more integrated modeling and scenarios community of practice is needed to produce a more complete and useful toolbox of approaches to meet the needs of IPBES assessment and other assessment of nature benefits. This Chapter describes

Method and apparatus for inspecting reflection masks for defects

DOEpatents

Bokor, Jeffrey; Lin, Yun

2003-04-29

An at-wavelength system for extreme ultraviolet lithography mask blank defect detection is provided. When a focused beam of wavelength 13 nm is incident on a defective region of a mask blank, three possible phenomena can occur. The defect will induce an intensity reduction in the specularly reflected beam, scatter incoming photons into an off-specular direction, and change the amplitude and phase of the electric field at the surface which can be monitored through the change in the photoemission current. The magnitude of these changes will depend on the incident beam size, and the nature, extent and size of the defect. Inspection of the mask blank is performed by scanning the mask blank with 13 nm light focused to a spot a few .mu.m in diameter, while measuring the reflected beam intensity (bright field detection), the scattered beam intensity (dark-field detection) and/or the change in the photoemission current.

A natural language screening measure for motivation to change.

PubMed

Miller, William R; Johnson, Wendy R

2008-09-01

Client motivation for change, a topic of high interest to addiction clinicians, is multidimensional and complex, and many different approaches to measurement have been tried. The current effort drew on psycholinguistic research on natural language that is used by clients to describe their own motivation. Seven addiction treatment sites participated in the development of a simple scale to measure client motivation. Twelve items were drafted to represent six potential dimensions of motivation for change that occur in natural discourse. The maximum self-rating of motivation (10 on a 0-10 scale) was the median score on all items, and 43% of respondents rated 10 on all 12 items - a substantial ceiling effect. From 1035 responses, three factors emerged representing importance, ability, and commitment - constructs that are also reflected in several theoretical models of motivation. A 3-item version of the scale, with one marker item for each of these constructs, accounted for 81% of variance in the full scale. The three items are: 1. It is important for me to . . . 2. I could . . . and 3. I am trying to . . . This offers a quick (1-minute) assessment of clients' self-reported motivation for change.

MODIS NDVI Change Detection Techniques and Products Used in the Near Real Time ForWarn System for Detecting, Monitoring, and Analyzing Regional Forest Disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William; Gasser, Jerry; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip D.

2014-01-01

This presentation discusses MODIS NDVI change detection methods and products used in the ForWarn Early Warning System (EWS) for near real time (NRT) recognition and tracking of regionally evident forest disturbances throughout the conterminous US (CONUS). The latter has provided NRT forest change products to the forest health protection community since 2010, using temporally processed MODIS Aqua and Terra NDVI time series data to currently compute and post 6 different forest change products for CONUS every 8 days. Multiple change products are required to improve detectability and to more fully assess the nature of apparent disturbances. Each type of forest change product reports per pixel percent change in NDVI for a given 24 day interval, comparing current versus a given historical baseline NDVI. EMODIS 7 day expedited MODIS MOD13 data are used to obtain current and historical NDVIs, respectively. Historical NDVI data is processed with Time Series Product Tool (TSPT); and 2) the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool (PPET) software. While each change products employ maximum value compositing (MVC) of NDVI, the design of specific products primarily differs in terms of the historical baseline. The three main change products use either 1, 3, or all previous years of MVC NDVI as a baseline. Another product uses an Adaptive Length Compositing (ALC) version of MVC to derive an alternative current NDVI that is the freshest quality NDVI as opposed to merely the MVC NDVI across a 24 day time frame. The ALC approach can improve detection speed by 8 to 16 days. ForWarn also includes 2 change products that improve detectability of forest disturbances in lieu of climatic fluctuations, especially in the spring and fall. One compares current MVC NDVI to the zonal maximum under the curve NDVI per pheno-region cluster class, considering all previous years in the MODIS record. The other compares current maximum NDVI to the mean of maximum NDVI for all previous MODIS years.

Development of a natural practice to adapt conservation goals to global change.

PubMed

Heller, Nicole E; Hobbs, Richard J

2014-06-01

Conservation goals at the start of the 21st century reflect a combination of contrasting ideas. Ideal nature is something that is historically intact but also futuristically flexible. Ideal nature is independent from humans, but also, because of the pervasiveness of human impacts, only able to reach expression through human management. These tensions emerge in current management rationales because scientists and managers are struggling to accommodate old and new scientific and cultural thinking, while also maintaining legal mandates from the past and commitments to preservation of individual species in particular places under the stresses of global change. Common management goals (such as integrity, wilderness, resilience), whether they are forward looking and focused on sustainability and change, or backward looking and focused on the persistence and restoration of historic states, tend to create essentialisms about how ecosystems should be. These essentialisms limit the options of managers to accommodate the dynamic, and often novel, response of ecosystems to global change. Essentialisms emerge because there is a tight conceptual coupling of place and historical species composition as an indicator of naturalness (e.g., normal, healthy, independent from humans). Given that change is increasingly the norm and ecosystems evolve in response, the focus on idealized ecosystem states is increasingly unwise and unattainable. To provide more open-ended goals, we propose greater attention be paid to the characteristics of management intervention. We suggest that the way we interact with other species in management and the extent to which those interactions reflect the interactions among other biotic organisms, and also reflect our conservation virtues (e.g., humility, respect), influences our ability to cultivate naturalness on the landscape. We call this goal a natural practice (NP) and propose it as a framework for prioritizing and formulating how, when, and where to intervene in this period of rapid change. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

From climate-change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st Century California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

The uncertainties associated with climate-change projections for California are unlikely to disappear any time soon, and yet important long-term decisions will be needed to accommodate those potential changes. Projection uncertainties have typically been addressed by analysis of a few scenarios, chosen based on availability or to capture the extreme cases among available projections. However, by focusing on more common projections rather than the most extreme projections (using a new resampling method), new insights into current projections emerge: (1) uncertainties associated with future greenhouse-gas emissions are comparable with the differences among climate models, so that neither source of uncertainties should be neglected or underrepresented; (2) twenty-first century temperature projections spread more, overall, than do precipitation scenarios; (3) projections of extremely wet futures for California are true outliers among current projections; and (4) current projections that are warmest tend, overall, to yield a moderately drier California, while the cooler projections yield a somewhat wetter future. The resampling approach applied in this paper also provides a natural opportunity to objectively incorporate measures of model skill and the likelihoods of various emission scenarios into future assessments.

Current state and prospects of carbon management in high latitudes of Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepaschenko, Dmitry; Shvidenko, Anatoly

2010-05-01

The current state and trajectories of future development of natural landscapes in high latitudes of Northern Eurasia are defined inter alia by (1) current unsatisfactory social and economic situation in boreal Northern Eurasia; (2) the dramatic magnitude of on-going and expected climatic change (warming up to 10-12oC under global warming at 4oC); (3) increasing anthropogenic pressure, particularly in regions of intensive oil and gas exploration and extraction; (4) large areas of sparsely populated and practically unmanaged land; (5) vulnerability of northern ecosystems which historically developed under cold climates and buffering capacity of which is not well known; (6) risk of catastrophic natural disturbances (fire, insect outbreaks) whose frequency and severity have accelerated during recent decades; and (7) high probability of irreversible changes of vegetation cover. These specifics are overlapped with insufficient governance of natural renewable resources (e.g., forests) and destructed practice of industrial development of new territories (oil and gas extraction and exploration, metallurgy etc.). Based on a full carbon account for terrestrial vegetation ecosystems of Northern Eurasia, we analyze the relative impacts of major drivers on magnitude and uncertainty of the Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB) under current and expected climate and environment. Dynamic trends and interannual variability of NECB are mostly dependent on weather conditions during growth seasons of individual years, regimes of natural disturbances, and anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems. In a short term, disturbances and human impacts cause a theoretically 'manageable' part of the full carbon account, which on average is estimated to be of about 20% of annual net primary production. In a long term, thawing of permafrost and change of hydrological regimes of vast territories may result in a catastrophic decline of the forested area and wide distribution of 'green desertification'. The paradigm of sustainable forest management (SFM) is a cornerstone of integrated landscape management in boreal regions and a basic prerequisite of proper management of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Basic drivers which generate major threats for terrestrial ecosystems and particularly for forests are increasing aridity of climate over major part of Asian Russia (the trend already clearly observed during the last 50 years), intra-seasonal variability of weather and irreversible changes of the hydrological regime. Development of an efficient system of forest protection is a crucial prerequisite. Current fire protection requires principal improvement of all its components (monitoring; technical and financial capacity; education of population; etc). Preparation of boreal landscape structure against the increasing threat of catastrophic fire is an urgent today's problem. However, transition to SFM is hindered by economic stagnation of vast territories (outside of areas of intensively exploited natural resources) and unsatisfactory demographic processes. Introduction of ecologically friendly methods of industrial development and integrated land management on a landscape basis is one of the very few ways to introduce proper carbon management in the region. A number of socio-economic and land use - land cover scenarios for such development indicate the existence of possible methods to do so if appropriate national policies will be developed and implemented.

Student Researcher Experiences (SRE): From the Field to Life as a Steward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, J.; Jenkins, T.; Chase, Z.

2017-12-01

Florida is a beautiful place to live; water, woods and wildlife are abundant. Many people want to live or visit our area to enjoy our natural resources. However, more people and technology lead to more changes in our resources, and conservation of our natural resources becomes even more important. Youth with conservation interests can benefit greatly from partnerships with scientists and organizations involved in conservation. Partnering with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission biologists helps youth learn how to construct scientific research projects that are current and meaningful, and will supply data to secure the health of our natural resources. Partnerships with scientists gives youth opportunities to become critical thinkers, citizen scientists, stewards, and a voice for nature in their community.

Robustness of self-organised systems to changes in behaviour: an example from real and simulated self-organised snail aggregations.

PubMed

Stafford, Richard; Williams, Gray A; Davies, Mark S

2011-01-01

Group or population level self-organised systems comprise many individuals displaying group-level emergent properties. Current theory indicates that individual-level behaviours have an effect on the final group-level behaviour; that is, self-organised systems are sensitive to small changes in individual behaviour. Here we examine a self-organised behaviour in relation to environmentally-driven individual-level changes in behaviour, using both natural systems and computer simulations. We demonstrate that aggregations of intertidal snails slightly decrease in size when, owing to hotter and more desiccating conditions, individuals forage for shorter periods--a seemingly non-adaptive behaviour for the snails since aggregation reduces desiccation stress. This decrease, however, only occurs in simple experimental systems (and simulations of these systems). When studied in their natural and more complex environment, and simulations of such an environment, using the same reduced foraging time, no difference in aggregation behaviour was found between hot and cool days. These results give an indication of how robust self-organised systems are to changes in individual-level behaviour. The complexity of the natural environment and the interactions of individuals with this environment, therefore, can result in self-organised systems being more resilient to individual-level changes than previously assumed.

Changes of forest cover and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests of the Alps☆

PubMed Central

Bebi, P.; Seidl, R.; Motta, R.; Fuhr, M.; Firm, D.; Krumm, F.; Conedera, M.; Ginzler, C.; Wohlgemuth, T.; Kulakowski, D.

2017-01-01

Natural disturbances, such as avalanches, snow breakage, insect outbreaks, windthrow or fires shape mountain forests globally. However, in many regions over the past centuries human activities have strongly influenced forest dynamics, especially following natural disturbances, thus limiting our understanding of natural ecological processes, particularly in densely-settled regions. In this contribution we briefly review the current understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests across the European Alps over the past millennia. We also quantify changes in forest cover across the entire Alps based on inventory data over the past century. Finally, using the Swiss Alps as an example, we analyze in-depth changes in forest cover and forest structure and their effect on patterns of fire and wind disturbances, based on digital historic maps from 1880, modern forest cover maps, inventory data on current forest structure, topographical data, and spatially explicit data on disturbances. This multifaceted approach presents a long-term and detailed picture of the dynamics of mountain forest ecosystems in the Alps. During pre-industrial times, natural disturbances were reduced by fire suppression and land-use, which included extraction of large amounts of biomass that decreased total forest cover. More recently, forest cover has increased again across the entire Alps (on average +4% per decade over the past 25–115 years). Live tree volume (+10% per decade) and dead tree volume (mean +59% per decade) have increased over the last 15–40 years in all regions for which data were available. In the Swiss Alps secondary forests that established after 1880 constitute approximately 43% of the forest cover. Compared to forests established previously, post-1880 forests are situated primarily on steep slopes (>30°), have lower biomass, a more aggregated forest structure (primarily stem-exclusion stage), and have been more strongly affected by fires, but less affected by wind disturbance in the 20th century. More broadly, an increase in growing stock and expanding forest areas since the mid-19th century have - along with climatic changes - contributed to an increasing frequency and size of disturbances in the Alps. Although many areas remain intensively managed, the extent, structure, and dynamics of the forests of the Alps reflect natural drivers more strongly today than at any time in the past millennium. PMID:28860675

Changes of forest cover and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests of the Alps.

PubMed

Bebi, P; Seidl, R; Motta, R; Fuhr, M; Firm, D; Krumm, F; Conedera, M; Ginzler, C; Wohlgemuth, T; Kulakowski, D

2017-03-15

Natural disturbances, such as avalanches, snow breakage, insect outbreaks, windthrow or fires shape mountain forests globally. However, in many regions over the past centuries human activities have strongly influenced forest dynamics, especially following natural disturbances, thus limiting our understanding of natural ecological processes, particularly in densely-settled regions. In this contribution we briefly review the current understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests across the European Alps over the past millennia. We also quantify changes in forest cover across the entire Alps based on inventory data over the past century. Finally, using the Swiss Alps as an example, we analyze in-depth changes in forest cover and forest structure and their effect on patterns of fire and wind disturbances, based on digital historic maps from 1880, modern forest cover maps, inventory data on current forest structure, topographical data, and spatially explicit data on disturbances. This multifaceted approach presents a long-term and detailed picture of the dynamics of mountain forest ecosystems in the Alps. During pre-industrial times, natural disturbances were reduced by fire suppression and land-use, which included extraction of large amounts of biomass that decreased total forest cover. More recently, forest cover has increased again across the entire Alps (on average +4% per decade over the past 25-115 years). Live tree volume (+10% per decade) and dead tree volume (mean +59% per decade) have increased over the last 15-40 years in all regions for which data were available. In the Swiss Alps secondary forests that established after 1880 constitute approximately 43% of the forest cover. Compared to forests established previously, post-1880 forests are situated primarily on steep slopes (>30°), have lower biomass, a more aggregated forest structure (primarily stem-exclusion stage), and have been more strongly affected by fires, but less affected by wind disturbance in the 20th century. More broadly, an increase in growing stock and expanding forest areas since the mid-19th century have - along with climatic changes - contributed to an increasing frequency and size of disturbances in the Alps. Although many areas remain intensively managed, the extent, structure, and dynamics of the forests of the Alps reflect natural drivers more strongly today than at any time in the past millennium.

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE PAGES

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2016-10-04

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

2017-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

Electromagnetic backscattering from one-dimensional drifting fractal sea surface I: Wave-current coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Xie; Shang-Zhuo, Zhao; William, Perrie; He, Fang; Wen-Jin, Yu; Yi-Jun, He

2016-06-01

To study the electromagnetic backscattering from a one-dimensional drifting fractal sea surface, a fractal sea surface wave-current model is derived, based on the mechanism of wave-current interactions. The numerical results show the effect of the ocean current on the wave. Wave amplitude decreases, wavelength and kurtosis of wave height increase, spectrum intensity decreases and shifts towards lower frequencies when the current occurs parallel to the direction of the ocean wave. By comparison, wave amplitude increases, wavelength and kurtosis of wave height decrease, spectrum intensity increases and shifts towards higher frequencies if the current is in the opposite direction to the direction of ocean wave. The wave-current interaction effect of the ocean current is much stronger than that of the nonlinear wave-wave interaction. The kurtosis of the nonlinear fractal ocean surface is larger than that of linear fractal ocean surface. The effect of the current on skewness of the probability distribution function is negligible. Therefore, the ocean wave spectrum is notably changed by the surface current and the change should be detectable in the electromagnetic backscattering signal. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41276187), the Global Change Research Program of China (Grant No. 2015CB953901), the Priority Academic Development Program of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), Program for the Innovation Research and Entrepreneurship Team in Jiangsu Province, China, the Canadian Program on Energy Research and Development, and the Canadian World Class Tanker Safety Service.

More green infrastructure is required to maintain ecosystem services under current trends in land-use change in Europe.

PubMed

Maes, Joachim; Barbosa, Ana; Baranzelli, Claudia; Zulian, Grazia; Batista E Silva, Filipe; Vandecasteele, Ine; Hiederer, Roland; Liquete, Camino; Paracchini, Maria Luisa; Mubareka, Sarah; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Castillo, Carolina Perpiña; Lavalle, Carlo

Green infrastructure (GI), a network of nature, semi-natural areas and green space, delivers essential ecosystem services which underpin human well-being and quality of life. Maintaining ecosystem services through the development of GI is therefore increasingly recognized by policies as a strategy to cope with potentially changing conditions in the future. This paper assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the aggregated provision of eight ecosystem services at the regional scale of the European Union, measured by the Total Ecosystem Services Index (TESI8). Moreover, the paper reports how further implementation of GI across Europe can help maintain ecosystem services at baseline levels. Current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect land use, were derived from the so called Reference Scenario. This scenario is established by the European Commission to assess the impact of energy and climate policy up to 2050. Under the Reference Scenario, economic growth, coupled with the total population, stimulates increasing urban and industrial expansion. TESI8 is expected to decrease across Europe between 0 and 5 % by 2020 and between 10 and 15 % by 2050 relative to the base year 2010. Based on regression analysis, we estimated that every additional percent increase of the proportion of artificial land needs to be compensated with an increase of 2.2 % of land that qualifies as green infrastructure in order to maintain ecosystem services at 2010 levels.

Extremophiles and biotechnology: current uses and prospects

PubMed Central

Coker, James A.

2016-01-01

Biotechnology has almost unlimited potential to change our lives in very exciting ways. Many of the chemical reactions that produce these products can be fully optimized by performing them at extremes of temperature, pressure, salinity, and pH for efficient and cost-effective outcomes. Fortunately, there are many organisms (extremophiles) that thrive in extreme environments found in nature and offer an excellent source of replacement enzymes in lieu of mesophilic ones currently used in these processes. In this review, I discuss the current uses and some potential new applications of extremophiles and their products, including enzymes, in biotechnology. PMID:27019700

Significance of the Human Being as an Element in an Information System: WWII Forward Air Controllers and Close Air Support

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

the doctrine and the people involved as they related to the forward air control-close air support information system. Other areas that will be...discussed as they relate to the development of close air support include: incremental vs. radical change, organizational culture and change, and the...dynamic nature of current and future operations as they relate to information systems. The primary research objective is to explore

Kidney disease and obesity: epidemiology, mechanisms and treatment.

PubMed

Câmara, Niels Olsen Saraiva; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Kramer, Holly; Liu, Zhi-Hong; Sharma, Kumar

2017-03-01

The theme of World Kidney Day 2017 is 'kidney disease and obesity: healthy lifestyle for healthy kidneys'. To mark this event, Nature Reviews Nephrology invited five leading researchers to describe changes in the epidemiology of obesity-related kidney disease, advances in current understanding of the mechanisms and current approaches to the management of affected patients. The researchers also highlight new advances that could lead to the development of novel treatments and identify areas in which further basic and clinical studies are needed.

Engineered containment and control systems: nurturing nature.

PubMed

Clarke, James H; MacDonell, Margaret M; Smith, Ellen D; Dunn, R Jeffrey; Waugh, W Jody

2004-06-01

The development of engineered containment and control systems for contaminated sites must consider the environmental setting of each site. The behaviors of both contaminated materials and engineered systems are affected by environmental conditions that will continue to evolve over time as a result of such natural processes as climate change, ecological succession, pedogenesis, and landform changes. Understanding these processes is crucial to designing, implementing, and maintaining effective systems for sustained health and environmental protection. Traditional engineered systems such as landfill liners and caps are designed to resist natural processes rather than working with them. These systems cannot be expected to provide long-term isolation without continued maintenance. In some cases, full-scale replacement and remediation may be required within 50 years, at an effort and cost much higher than for the original cleanup. Approaches are being developed to define smarter containment and control systems for stewardship sites, considering lessons learned from implementing prescriptive waste disposal regulations enacted since the 1970s. These approaches more effectively involve integrating natural and engineered systems; enhancing sensors and predictive tools for evaluating performance; and incorporating information on failure events, including precursors and consequences, into system design and maintenance. An important feature is using natural analogs to predict environmental conditions and system responses over the long term, to accommodate environmental change in the design process, and, as possible, to engineer containment systems that mimic favorable natural systems. The key emphasis is harmony with the environment, so systems will work with and rely on natural processes rather than resisting them. Implementing these new integrated systems will reduce current requirements for active management, which are resource-intensive and expensive.

Exploring life history characteristics of naturalized versus stocked chinook

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rogers, Mark W.; Kerns, Janice A; Bunnell, David B.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Collingsworth, Paris D.

2011-01-01

Naturalization of stocked populations can result in divergence of life-history traits from domestic stocks. Lake Michigan supports popular Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Salmon fisheries that have been sustained by stocking since the late 1960s. Natural recruitment of Chinook Salmon in Lake Michigan has increased in the last few decades and currently contributes over 50% of Chinook Salmon recruits. Samples collected as part of a lakewide mass-marking of Lake Michigan Chinook Salmon, starting with the 2006 year class, indicated hatchery fish average 30-mm longer and 130 grams heavier than naturalized fish at age-1. We hypothesized that selective forces differ for naturalized and hatchery populations resulting in divergent life-history characteristics with implications for Chinook Salmon population production and the Lake Michigan fishery. Specific life-history metrics of interest include: age- and size- at maturity, spawning run timing, fecundity, and sex ratio. Objectives: We evaluated life history characteristics between naturally recruited and stocked Chinook Salmon in Lake Michigan to help discern potential changes resulting from naturalization and implications for fisheries. A. Conduct an analysis of historical data to determine if life-history parameters changed through time as the Chinook Salmon population became increasingly naturalized. B. Conduct a two-year field study of naturalized and hatchery stocked Chinook Salmon spawning populations to quantify differences in life-history metrics of adults. C. Determine if reproductive potential differs between naturalized and hatchery stocked Chinook salmon by measuring egg thiamine levels.

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

PubMed

Brown, Iain

2018-06-13

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Iain

2018-06-01

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Emerging issues in biodiversity & conservation management: The need for a palaeoecological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froyd, C. A.; Willis, K. J.

2008-09-01

The study of Quaternary environmental change is directly applicable to on-going issues of global conservation. Palaeoecological research techniques provide the tools to address some of the key questions presently being asked by conservation ecologists and land management organizations. But is this type of analysis currently being utilized to its full potential? Are the results of palaeoenvironmental analyses routinely applied to practical issues of natural resource management, and if not what can be done to expand the application of this research within the conservation community? This paper reviews recent developments in the application of the analysis of late Quaternary environmental change to key environmental issues of biodiversity and conservation management and examines areas which could be strengthened in the future including: (i) determination of baselines and natural ecosystem variability; (ii) understanding ecological thresholds and resilience; (iii) climate change conservation strategies; (iv) biological invasions; and (v) conservation and culture.

Anticancer Natural Compounds as Epigenetic Modulators of Gene Expression

PubMed Central

Ratovitski, Edward A.

2017-01-01

Abstract: Accumulating evidence shows that hallmarks of cancer include: “genetic and epigenetic alterations leading to inactivation of cancer suppressors, overexpression of oncogenes, deregulation of intracellular signaling cascades, alterations of cancer cell metabolism, failure to undergo cancer cell death, induction of epithelial to mesenchymal transition, invasiveness, metastasis, deregulation of immune response and changes in cancer microenvironment, which underpin cancer development”. Natural compounds as bioactive ingredients isolated from natural sources (plants, fungi, marine life forms) have revolutionized the field of anticancer therapeutics and rapid developments in preclinical studies are encouraging. Natural compounds could affect the epigenetic molecular mechanisms that modulate gene expression, as well as DNA damage and repair mechanisms. The current review will describe the latest achievements in using naturally produced compounds targeting epigenetic regulators and modulators of gene transcription in vitro and in vivo to generate novel anticancer therapeutics. PMID:28367075

Arctic climate tipping points.

PubMed

Lenton, Timothy M

2012-02-01

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

Investigation of environmental change pattern in Japan. Investigation of variations in the prominent oceanic current, Kuroshio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maruyasu, T.; Shoji, D. (Principal Investigator)

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Rias shorelines are interpreted from the fine depiction of their complex features in the image of band 7. Sand beaches are discriminated from their linear nature, and the similarity of sand beaches among the all band is very good.

What’s After joint Multi Domain Operations as the Next Evolution in Warfare

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-15

132 Multi-domain operations is similarly a philosophy: descriptive in nature not prescriptive, a mindset rather than a method. Change Cannot Wait...this equates to ends, ways, and means respectively.191 The current service’s descriptions of why either focuses on the broad, winning the nations

Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

2011-01-01

Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime…

An Analysis of States' Policies Regarding Social Media Use in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Janette K.

2016-01-01

This policy analysis project focused on states' policies regarding social media use in education. Currently, policies, practices and laws are not keeping pace with the rapidly changing nature of technology. As a result of the quick advancement of social media practices, the need exists for organic policies and practices within the educational…

The Future of Management Education in Australia: Challenges and Innovations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Richard; Agarwal, Renu; Green, Roy

2013-01-01

Purpose -- The purpose of this paper is to undertake a survey of the external and internal forces changing the nature of business schools and business education. It aims to investigate how management education responds to increasing productivity, innovation and capability challenges, examine how MBA programs currently meet these demands, and how…

Teacher-Parent Interactions in Taiwan: A Qualitative Investigation of Teachers' Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Pi-Ju

2015-01-01

Because the importance of parental involvement in education has been emphasized recently in Taiwan, the nature of teacher-parent interactions has changed. The current study describes teacher-parent interactions from teacher perspectives in grades 1-12 in Taiwan. Data were collected from 50 teachers using open-ended questionnaires. Thematic…

Resilience and Learning: A Conspectus for Environmental Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundholm, Cecilia; Plummer, Ryan

2010-01-01

There has been an increasing interest in how environmental education contributes to sustainability dating from the 1977 UNESCO conference in Tbilisi to the current Decade of Education for Sustainable Development, which in 2009, reached mid term. There is also a growing interest and concern in the complexity, uncertainty and changing nature of…

Biotechnology, Ethics and Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzsimons, Peter John

2007-01-01

Fundamental differences between current and past knowledge in the field of biotechnology mean that we now have at our disposal the means to irreversibly change what is meant by "human nature". This paper explores some of the ethical issues that accompany the (as yet tentative) attempt to increase scientific control over the human genetic code in…

Meeting the Needs of Children and Families: Opportunities and Challenges for School Psychology Training Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curtis, Michael J.; Batsche, George M.

1991-01-01

Notes that graduate training programs face challenges, as well as opportunities, in fulfillment of their responsibilities to prepare school psychologists for entry into professional practice. Examines nature and origins of potential changes facing school psychology and discusses adequacy of current training programs. Discusses future implications…

Institutional barriers and incentives for ecosystem management: a problem analysis.

Treesearch

H.J. Cortner; M.A. Shannon; M.G. Wallace; S. Burke; M.A. Moote

1996-01-01

Ecosystem management is currently being proposed as a new resource management philosophy. This approach to resource management will require changes in how society approaches nature, science, and politics. Further, if efforts to implement ecosystem management are to succeed, institutional issues must be examined. This report identifies five problem areas where social...

Science accomplishments report.

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2003-01-01

Today, as in the past, complex forces of nature intersect with communities and society. Fire, climate change, invasive species, and large-scale shifts in forest cover and use are some of the key issues society currently faces. This accomplishment report encapsulates a year’s work from our scientists. This work is often interdisciplinary, long term, geographically broad...

75 FR 35375 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Designation of Critical Habitat for Roswell...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-22

... assessment makes appropriate assumptions regarding current practices and likely regulatory changes imposed as... unsuitable for the species from urban areas, agriculture, release of chemicals, and oil and gas operations... private lands with multiple land uses including expanding urban development. There are 378 natural gas and...

Could natural selection change the geographic range limits of light brown apple moth (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae) in North America?

Treesearch

Amy C. Morey; Robert C. Venette; William D. Hutchison

2013-01-01

We artificially selected for increased freeze tolerance in the invasive light brown apple moth. Our results suggest that, by not accounting for adaptation to cold, current models of potential geographic distributions could underestimate the areas at risk of exposure to this species.

Modeling mountain pine beetle habitat suitability within Sequoia National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Andrew

Understanding significant changes in climate and their effects on timber resources can help forest managers make better decisions regarding the preservation of natural resources and land management. These changes may to alter natural ecosystems dependent on historical and current climate conditions. Increasing mountain pine beetle (MBP) outbreaks within the southern Sierra Nevada are the result of these alterations. This study better understands MPB behavior within Sequoia National Park (SNP) and model its current and future habitat distribution. Variables contributing to MPB spread are vegetation stress, soil moisture, temperature, precipitation, disturbance, and presence of Ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa) and Lodgepole (Pinus contorta) pine trees. These variables were obtained using various modeled, insitu, and remotely sensed sources. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to calculate the statistical significance of each variable contributing to MPB spread and also created maps identifying habitat suitability. Results indicate vegetation stress and forest disturbance to be variables most indicative of MPB spread. Additionally, the model was able to detect habitat suitability of MPB with a 45% accuracy concluding that a geospatial driven modeling approach can be used to delineate potential MPB spread within SNP.

Biomimetics in Tribology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebeshuber, I. C.; Majlis, B. Y.; Stachelberger, H.

Science currently goes through a major change. Biology is evolving as new Leitwissenschaft, with more and more causation and natural laws being uncovered. The term `technoscience' denotes the field where science and technology are inseparably interconnected, the trend goes from papers to patents, and the scientific `search for truth' is increasingly replaced by search for applications with a potential economic value. Biomimetics, i.e. knowledge transfer from biology to technology, is a field that has the potential to drive major technical advances. The biomimetic approach might change the research landscape and the engineering culture dramatically, by the blending of disciplines. It might substantially support successful mastering of current tribological challenges: friction, adhesion, lubrication and wear in devices and systems from the meter to the nanometer scale. A highly successful method in biomimectics, the biomimicry innovation method, is applied in this chapter to identify nature's best practices regarding two key issues in tribology: maintenance of the physical integrity of a system, and permanent as well as temporary attachment. The best practices identified comprise highly diverse organisms and processes and are presented in a number of tables with detailed references.

Primary Visual Cortex Represents the Difference Between Past and Present

PubMed Central

Nortmann, Nora; Rekauzke, Sascha; Onat, Selim; König, Peter; Jancke, Dirk

2015-01-01

The visual system is confronted with rapidly changing stimuli in everyday life. It is not well understood how information in such a stream of input is updated within the brain. We performed voltage-sensitive dye imaging across the primary visual cortex (V1) to capture responses to sequences of natural scene contours. We presented vertically and horizontally filtered natural images, and their superpositions, at 10 or 33 Hz. At low frequency, the encoding was found to represent not the currently presented images, but differences in orientation between consecutive images. This was in sharp contrast to more rapid sequences for which we found an ongoing representation of current input, consistent with earlier studies. Our finding that for slower image sequences, V1 does no longer report actual features but represents their relative difference in time counteracts the view that the first cortical processing stage must always transfer complete information. Instead, we show its capacities for change detection with a new emphasis on the role of automatic computation evolving in the 100-ms range, inevitably affecting information transmission further downstream. PMID:24343889

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Lackawanna and Wayne Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milheim, L.E.; Slonecker, E.T.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Malizia, A.R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Lackawanna County and Wayne County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Armstrong and Indiana Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, Terry E.; Milheim, Lesley E.; Roig-Silva, Coral M.; Malizia, Alexander R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Armstrong County and Indiana County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Somerset and Westmoreland Counties, Pennsylvania,2004--2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milheim, L.E.; Slonecker, E.T.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Malizia, A.R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Somerset County and Westmoreland County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Sullivan and Wyoming Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, Terry E.; Milheim, Lesley E.; Roig-Silva, Coral M.; Malizia, Alexander R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Sullivan County and Wyoming County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Fayette and Lycoming Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E.T.; Milheim, L.E.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Malizia, A.R.; Gillenwater, B.H.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Fayette County and Lycoming County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Beaver and Butler Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roig-Silva, Coral M.; Slonecker, E. Terry; Milheim, Lesley E.; Malizia, Alexander R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Beaver County and Butler County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Potential increases in natural disturbance rates could offset forest management impacts on ecosystem carbon stocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Jensen, Nicholas R.; Domke, Grant M.; D’Amato, Anthony W.

2013-01-01

Forested ecosystems contain the majority of the world’s terrestrial carbon, and forest management has implications for regional and global carbon cycling. Carbon stored in forests changes with stand age and is affected by natural disturbance and timber harvesting. We examined how harvesting and disturbance interact to influence forest carbon stocks over the Superior National Forest, in northern Minnesota. Forest inventory data from the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis program were used to characterize current forest age structure and quantify the relationship between age and carbon stocks for eight forest types. Using these findings, we simulated the impact of alternative management scenarios and natural disturbance rates on forest-wide terrestrial carbon stocks over a 100-year horizon. Under low natural mortality, forest-wide total ecosystem carbon stocks increased when 0% or 40% of planned harvests were implemented; however, the majority of forest-wide carbon stocks decreased with greater harvest levels and elevated disturbance rates. Our results suggest that natural disturbance has the potential to exert stronger influence on forest carbon stocks than timber harvesting activities and that maintaining carbon stocks over the long-term may prove difficult if disturbance frequency increases in response to climate change.

Assessment of Genetically Modified Soybean in Relation to Natural Variation in the Soybean Seed Metabolome

PubMed Central

Clarke, Joseph D.; Alexander, Danny C.; Ward, Dennis P.; Ryals, John A.; Mitchell, Matthew W.; Wulff, Jacob E.; Guo, Lining

2013-01-01

Genetically modified (GM) crops currently constitute a significant and growing part of agriculture. An important aspect of GM crop adoption is to demonstrate safety and equivalence with respect to conventional crops. Untargeted metabolomics has the ability to profile diverse classes of metabolites and thus could be an adjunct for GM crop substantial equivalence assessment. To account for environmental effects and introgression of GM traits into diverse genetic backgrounds, we propose that the assessment for GM crop metabolic composition should be understood within the context of the natural variation for the crop. Using a non-targeted metabolomics platform, we profiled 169 metabolites and established their dynamic ranges from the seeds of 49 conventional soybean lines representing the current commercial genetic diversity. We further demonstrated that the metabolome of a GM line had no significant deviation from natural variation within the soybean metabolome, with the exception of changes in the targeted engineered pathway. PMID:24170158

Notice of Changes to the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

EIA Publications

2015-01-01

On November 19, 2015, EIA will release the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR) with new data breakouts for five regions of the Lower 48 states, converting from the current three-region structure. On Monday, November 16, 2015, EIA will re-release the data that will be published on Friday, November 13 (for the week ending Friday, November 6) in the new five-region format. The release will be conducted through the same timed countdown procedures used for normal releases on the same WNGSR web page: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html.

Ionic components of electric current at rat corneal wounds.

PubMed

Vieira, Ana Carolina; Reid, Brian; Cao, Lin; Mannis, Mark J; Schwab, Ivan R; Zhao, Min

2011-02-25

Endogenous electric fields and currents occur naturally at wounds and are a strong signal guiding cell migration into the wound to promote healing. Many cells involved in wound healing respond to small physiological electric fields in vitro. It has long been assumed that wound electric fields are produced by passive ion leakage from damaged tissue. Could these fields be actively maintained and regulated as an active wound response? What are the molecular, ionic and cellular mechanisms underlying the wound electric currents? Using rat cornea wounds as a model, we measured the dynamic timecourses of individual ion fluxes with ion-selective probes. We also examined chloride channel expression before and after wounding. After wounding, Ca(2+) efflux increased steadily whereas K(+) showed an initial large efflux which rapidly decreased. Surprisingly, Na(+) flux at wounds was inward. A most significant observation was a persistent large influx of Cl(-), which had a time course similar to the net wound electric currents we have measured previously. Fixation of the tissues abolished ion fluxes. Pharmacological agents which stimulate ion transport significantly increased flux of Cl(-), Na(+) and K(+). Injury to the cornea caused significant changes in distribution and expression of Cl(-) channel CLC2. These data suggest that the outward electric currents occurring naturally at corneal wounds are carried mainly by a large influx of chloride ions, and in part by effluxes of calcium and potassium ions. Ca(2+) and Cl(-) fluxes appear to be mainly actively regulated, while K(+) flux appears to be largely due to leakage. The dynamic changes of electric currents and specific ion fluxes after wounding suggest that electrical signaling is an active response to injury and offers potential novel approaches to modulate wound healing, for example eye-drops targeting ion transport to aid in the challenging management of non-healing corneal ulcers.

Evolutionary consequences of habitat loss for Pacific anadromous salmonids

PubMed Central

McClure, Michelle M; Carlson, Stephanie M; Beechie, Timothy J; Pess, George R; Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; Sogard, Susan M; Sultan, Sonia E; Holzer, Damon M; Travis, Joseph; Sanderson, Beth L; Power, Mary E; Carmichael, Richard W

2008-01-01

Large portions of anadromous salmonid habitat in the western United States has been lost because of dams and other blockages. This loss has the potential to affect salmonid evolution through natural selection if the loss is biased, affecting certain types of habitat differentially, and if phenotypic traits correlated with those habitat types are heritable. Habitat loss can also affect salmonid evolution indirectly, by reducing genetic variation and changing its distribution within and among populations. In this paper, we compare the characteristics of lost habitats with currently accessible habitats and review the heritability of traits which show correlations with habitat/environmental gradients. We find that although there is some regional variation, inaccessible habitats tend to be higher in elevation, wetter and both warmer in the summer and colder in the winter than habitats currently available to anadromous salmonids. We present several case studies that demonstrate either a change in phenotypic or life history expression or an apparent reduction in genetic variation associated with habitat blockages. These results suggest that loss of habitat will alter evolutionary trajectories in salmonid populations and Evolutionarily Significant Units. Changes in both selective regime and standing genetic diversity might affect the ability of these taxa to respond to subsequent environmental perturbations. Both natural and anthropogenic and should be considered seriously in developing management and conservation strategies. PMID:25567633

Effects of Governance on Availability of Land for Agriculture and Conservation in Brazil.

PubMed

Sparovek, Gerd; Barretto, Alberto Giaroli de Oliveira Pereira; Matsumoto, Marcelo; Berndes, Göran

2015-09-01

The 2012 revision of the Brazilian Forest Act changed the relative importance of private and public governance for nature conservation and agricultural production. We present a spatially explicit land-use model for Brazilian agricultural production and nature conservation that considers the spatial distribution of agricultural land suitability, technological and management options, legal command, and control frameworks including the Atlantic Forest Law, the revised Forest Act, and the Amazonian land-titling, "Terra Legal," and also market-driven land use regulations. The model is used to analyze land use allocation under three scenarios with varying priorities among agricultural production and environmental protection objectives. In all scenarios, the legal command and control frameworks were the most important determinants of conservation outcomes, protecting at least 80% of the existing natural vegetation. Situations where such frameworks are not expected to be effective can be identified and targeted for additional conservation (beyond legal requirements) through voluntary actions or self-regulation in response to markets. All scenarios allow for a substantial increase in crop production, using an area 1.5-2.7 times the current cropland area, with much of new cropland occurring on current pastureland. Current public arrangements that promote conservation can, in conjunction with voluntary schemes on private lands where conversion to agriculture is favored, provide important additional nature conservation without conflicting with national agricultural production objectives.

Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll

PubMed Central

Cody, Emily M.; Reagan, Andrew J.; Mitchell, Lewis; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word “climate” collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness. PMID:26291877

Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll.

PubMed

Cody, Emily M; Reagan, Andrew J; Mitchell, Lewis; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

2015-01-01

The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

Realistic anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacko, Zacharia; Luty, Markus A.; Maksymyk, Ivan; Pontón, Eduardo

2000-03-01

We consider supersymmetry breaking communicated entirely by the superconformal anomaly in supergravity. This scenario is naturally realized if supersymmetry is broken in a hidden sector whose couplings to the observable sector are suppressed by more than powers of the Planck scale, as occurs if supersymmetry is broken in a parallel universe living in extra dimensions. This scenario is extremely predictive: soft supersymmetry breaking couplings are completely determined by anomalous dimensions in the effective theory at the weak scale. Gaugino and scalar masses are naturally of the same order, and flavor-changing neutral currents are automatically suppressed. The most glaring problem with this scenario is that slepton masses are negative in the minimal supersymmetric standard model. We point out that this problem can be simply solved by coupling extra Higgs doublets to the leptons. Lepton flavor-changing neutral currents can be naturally avoided by approximate symmetries. We also describe more speculative solutions involving compositeness near the weak scale. We then turn to electroweak symmetry breaking. Adding an explicit μ term gives a value for Bμ that is too large by a factor of ~ 100. We construct a realistic model in which the μ term arises from the vacuum expectation value of a singlet field, so all weak-scale masses are directly related to m3/2. We show that fully realistic electroweak symmetry breaking can occur in this model with moderate fine-tuning.

Native American Indian Successes in Natural Resources, Science and Engineering: PreK through Ph.D.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolman, J. R.

2005-12-01

We are living in a definite time of change. Distinct changes are being experienced in our most sacred and natural environments. This is especially true on Native lands. Native people have lived for millennia in distinct and unique ways. The knowledge of balancing the needs of people with the needs of our natural environments is paramount in all tribal societies. This inherent knowledge has become the foundation on which to build a "blended" contemporary understanding of western science. The Dakota's and Northern California have recognized the critical need in understanding successful tribal strategies to engage educational systems (K-12 and higher education), to bring to prominence the professional development opportunities forged through working with tribal peoples and ensure the growth of Native people in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) professions. The presentation will highlight: 1) current philosophies on building a STEM Native workforce; 2) successful educational programs/activities in PreK-Ph.D. systems; 3) current Native professionals, their research and tribal applicability; and 4) forwarding thinking for creating sustainable environmental and social infrastructures for all people. South Dakota School of Mines and Technology (SDSM&T) and Humboldt State University (HSU) have been recognized nationally for their partnerships with Native communities. SDSM&T has set record numbers for graduating Native students in science and engineering. SDSM&T had 27 graduates in five years (2000-2005) and hosted more than 1000+ Native students for programs and activities. Humboldt State University is the only university in the CSU system with a program focusing specifically on Natives in natural resources, science and engineering as well as a Native American Studies degree. Both universities have designed programs to meet current needs and address challenging issues in Earth, Wind, Fire and Water. The programs are funded through NASA, NSF, NIH and others.

Identification and quantification of the hydrological impacts of imperviousness in urban catchments: a review.

PubMed

Jacobson, Carol R

2011-06-01

Urbanisation produces numerous changes in the natural environments it replaces. The impacts include habitat fragmentation and changes to both the quality and quantity of the stormwater runoff, and result in changes to hydrological systems. This review integrates research in relatively diverse areas to examine how the impacts of urban imperviousness on hydrological systems can be quantified and modelled. It examines the nature of reported impacts of urbanisation on hydrological systems over four decades, including the effects of changes in imperviousness within catchments, and some inconsistencies in studies of the impacts of urbanisation. The distribution of imperviousness within urban areas is important in understanding the impacts of urbanisation and quantification requires detailed characterisation of urban areas. As a result most mapping of urban areas uses remote sensing techniques and this review examines a range of techniques using medium and high resolution imagery, including spectral unmixing. The third section examines the ways in which scientists and hydrological and environmental engineers model and quantify water flows in urban areas, the nature of hydrological models and methods for their calibration. The final section examines additional factors which influence the impact of impervious surfaces and some uncertainties that exist in current knowledge. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two hot to handle: How do we manage the simultaneous impacts of climate change and natural disasters on human health?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phalkey, R. K.; Louis, V. R.

2016-05-01

Climate change is one of the major challenges we face today. There is recognition alongside evidence that the health impacts of both climate change and natural disasters are significant and rising. The impacts of both are also complex and span well beyond health to include environmental, social, demographic, cultural, and economic aspects of human lives. Nonetheless integrated impact assessments are rare and so are system level approaches or systematic preparedness and adaptation strategies to brace the two simultaneously particularly in low and middle-income countries. Ironically the impacts of both climate change as well as natural disasters will be disproportionately borne by low emitters. Sufficiently large and long-term data from comprehensive weather, socio-economic, demographic and health observational systems are currently unavailable to guide adaptation strategies with the necessary precision. In the absence of these and given the uncertainties around the health impact projections alongside the geographic disparities even within the countries, the main question is how can countries then prepare to brace the unknown? We certainly cannot wait to obtain answers to all the questions before we plan solutions. Strengthening health systems is therefore a pragmatic "zero regrets" strategy and should be adopted hastily before the parallel impacts from climate change and associated extreme weather events (disasters thereof) become too hot to handle.

Remote sensing and GIS-based integrated analysis of land cover change in Duzce plain and its surroundings (north western Turkey).

PubMed

Ikiel, Cercis; Ustaoglu, Beyza; Dutucu, Ayse Atalay; Kilic, Derya Evrim

2013-02-01

The aim of this study is to research natural land cover change caused by the permanent effects of human activities in Duzce plain and its surroundings, and to determine the current status of the land cover. For this purpose, two Landsat TM images were used in the study for the years 1987 and 2010. These images are analysed by using data image processing techniques in ERDAS Imagine©10.0 and ArcGIS©10.0 software. Land cover change nomenclature is classified according to the Coordination of Information on the Environment Level 2 Classification (1--urban fabric, 2--industrial, commercial and transport units, 3--heterogeneous agricultural areas, 4--forests, and 5--inland wetlands). Furthermore, the image analysis results are confirmed by the field research. According to the results, a decrease of 33.5 % was recorded in forest areas from 24,840.7 to 16,529.0 ha; an increase of 11.2 % was recorded in heterogeneous agricultural areas from 47,702.7 to 53,051.7 ha. Natural vegetation, which is the large part of land cover in the research area, has been changing rapidly because of rapid urbanisation and agricultural activities. As a result, it is concluded that significant changes have occurred on the natural land cover between the years 1987 and 2010 in the Duzce plain and its surroundings.

The complex nature of mixed farming systems requires multidimensional actions supported by integrative research and development efforts.

PubMed

González-García, E; Gourdine, J L; Alexandre, G; Archimède, H; Vaarst, M

2012-05-01

Mixed farming systems (MFS) have demonstrated some success by focusing on the use of integrative and holistic mechanisms, and rationally building on and using the natural and local resource base without exhausting it, while enhancing biodiversity, optimizing complementarities between crops and animal systems and finally increasing opportunities in rural livelihoods. Focusing our analysis and discussion on field experiences and empirical knowledge in the Caribbean islands, this paper discusses the opportunities for a change needed in current MFS research-development philosophy. The importance of shifting from fragile/specialized production systems to MFS under current global conditions is argued with an emphasis on the case of Small Islands Developing States (SIDS) and the Caribbean. Particular vulnerable characteristics as well as the potential and constraints of SIDS and their agricultural sectors are described, while revealing the opportunities for the 'richness' of the natural and local resources to support authentic and less dependent production system strategies. Examples are provided of the use of natural grasses, legumes, crop residues and agro-industrial by-products. We analyse the requirement for a change in research strategies and initiatives through the development of a complex but necessary multi-/inter-/trans-disciplinary teamwork spirit. We stress as essential the collaboration and active participation of local and regional actors, stakeholders and end-users in the identification of research priorities, as well as the generation, exchange and dissemination of knowledge and technology innovations, while strengthening the leadership roles in the conduct of integrative and participative research and development projects.

Understanding Work and Literacy: (E)merging Discourses at Work. Research into Practice Series Number 7.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castleton, Geraldine; Ovens, Carolyn; Ralston, Deborah

The nature and effects of current common understandings of the relationship between work and literacy were examined along with the typical design and objectives of workplace literacy programs for members of Australia's work force. Special attention was paid to the following topics: changing demands of work and literacy at work; discourses of…

Supporting New Scholars: A Learner-Centered Approach to New Faculty Orientation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cullen, Roxanne; Harris, Michael

2008-01-01

A new generation of faculty is entering the academic workforce and they are increasingly dissatisfied with current working environments. Institutions must begin to address the changing nature of this new generation. This article reports on a New Faculty Orientation program based on elements of the learner-centered pedagogy. The goal was to achieve…

The Future of Teaching Research in the Social Sciences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wagner, C.

2009-01-01

Current literature on teaching research methodology in the social sciences highlights the changing nature of our world in terms of its complexity and diversity, and points to how this affects the way in which we search for answers to related problems (Brew 2003, 3; Tashakkori and Teddlie 2003, 74). New ways of approaching research problems that…

Responding to the Ecological Crisis: Transformative Pathways for Social Work Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Peter

2010-01-01

The nature and extent of the current ecological crisis raises the question: Does social work have a contribution to make in addressing the social and environmental changes required if we are to move toward a sustainable future? Given the links between the traditional concerns of social work and the emerging concerns of environmental and ecological…

Bark beetle outbreaks in western North America: Causes and consequences

Treesearch

Barbara Bentz; Jesse Logan; Jim MacMahon; Craig D. Allen; Matt Ayres; Ed Berg; Allan Carroll; Matt Hansen; Jeff Hicke; Linda Joyce; Wallace Macfarlane; Steve Munson; Jose Negron; Tim Paine; Jim Powell; Ken Raffa; Jacques Regniere; Mary Reid; Bill Romme; Steven J. Seybold; Diana Six; Diana Tomback; Jim Vandygriff; Tom Veblen; Mike White; Jeff Witcosky; David Wood

2009-01-01

Since 1990, native bark beetles have killed billions of trees across millions of acres of forest from Alaska to northern Mexico. Although bark beetle infestations are a regular force of natural change in forested ecosystems, several of the current outbreaks, which are occurring simultaneously across western North America, are the largest and most severe in recorded...

Ecological Consciousness in Ontario Elementary Schools: The Truant Curriculum and the Consequences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puk, T.; Makin, Darrell

2006-01-01

Global ecological degradation is currently causing widespread suffering and this is expected to worsen unless we change our global behaviors. Wilson (2002) has suggested that the consequences of ecological degradation are a threat to all life on earth. Woodbridge (2004) asserts that human pressures on natural systems will reach pivotal status by…

Roles for agroforestry in hardwood regeneration and natural-stand management

Treesearch

H. E. ' Gene' Garrett

2003-01-01

A convincing case can be made that current land-use patterns in the Central Hardwood region reflect a significant underutilization of our land-based resources. A land-use strategy is required that would allow landowners who are interested in converting marginal crop lands to forests, or unproductive woodlots to productive woodlots, to make the change without financial...

77 FR 30999 - Notice of Submission for OMB Review; Office of Planning, Evaluation and Policy Development; Case...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-24

... Institutions of Higher Education that have entered into consortium arrangements with states or school districts... structure of the education they provide to current and prospective teachers of English Learners; (2) the nature of changes they attempt to make to the full teacher education program at their institutions; (3...

Emotional Intelligence and Deans: Exploring the Nature of the Emotional Intelligence of Community College Deans in the Southeastern Region of the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maundu, Irene Kasungwa

2013-01-01

Leadership is an essential aspect of community college administration. Community colleges are currently facing numerous challenges such as: above average retirement rates for administrators, funding and limited government support, diverse student populations, changes in technology, shift in teaching to student-centered learning, and steep…

The "Working Lives" Project: A Window into Australian Education and Workforce Participation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fehring, Heather; Herring, Katherine

2013-01-01

Lifting the rate of workforce participation in Australia has been called "the challenge of the decade". In light of the ageing workforce, changing nature of work demands and workforce attitudes, the need for insight into current patterns of workforce participation has never been more urgent. The following paper offers an overview of an…

New Metaphors for Organizing Data Could Change the Nature of Computers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Jeffrey R.

1997-01-01

Based on the idea that the current framework for organizing electronic data does not take advantage of the mind's ability to make connections among disparate pieces of information, several projects at universities around the country are taking new approaches to classification and storage of vast amounts of computerized data. The new systems take…

Bark beetle outbreaks in western North America: Causes and consequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bentz, Barbara; Logan, Jesse; MacMahon, James A.; Allen, Craig D.; Ayres, Matt; Berg, Edward E; Carroll, Allan; Hansen, Matt; Hicke, Jeff H.; Joyce, Linda A.; Macfarlane, Wallace; Munson, Steve; Negron, Jose; Paine, Tim; Powell, Jim; Raffa, Kenneth; Regniere, Jacques; Reid, Mary; Romme, Bill; Seybold, Steven J.; Six, Diana; Vandygriff, Jim; Veblen, Tom; White, Mike; Witcosky, Jeff

2005-01-01

Since 1990, native bark beetles have killed billions of trees across millions of acres of forest from Alaska to northern Mexico. Although bark beetle infestations are a regular force of natural change in forested ecosystems, several of the current outbreaks, which are occurring simultaneously across western North America, are the largest and most severe in recorded history.

Valuing state parks: Accounting for diverse visitor perspectives

Treesearch

Jason W. Whiting; Lincoln R. Larson; Gary T. Green

2012-01-01

Current and estimated future changes in the United States population suggest that racial and ethnic minority groups are growing rapidly. Minority groups, however, continue to be underrepresented in visitation to state parks. It is also unclear how minority groups value natural settings, such as state parks. The lack of visitation and lack of information pertaining to...

Life Is Getting Better: Societal Evolution and Fit with Human Nature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veenhoven, Ruut

2010-01-01

Human society has changed much over the last centuries and this process of "modernization" has profoundly affected the lives of individuals; currently we live quite different lives from those forefathers lived only five generations ago. There is difference of opinion as to whether we live better now than before and consequently there is also…

The"minimum information about an environmental sequence" (MIENS) specification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yilmaz, P.; Kottmann, R.; Field, D.

We present the Genomic Standards Consortium's (GSC) 'Minimum Information about an ENvironmental Sequence' (MIENS) standard for describing marker genes. Adoption of MIENS will enhance our ability to analyze natural genetic diversity across the Tree of Life as it is currently being documented by massive DNA sequencing efforts from myriad ecosystems in our ever-changing biosphere.

Technology transfer of remote sensing technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, A. D.

1980-01-01

The basic philosophy and some current activities of MSFC Technology Transfer with regard to remote sensing technology are briefly reviewed. Among the problems that may be alleviated through such technology transfer are the scarcity of energy and mineral resources, the alteration of the environment by man, unpredictable natural disasters, and the effect of unanticipated climatic change on agricultural productivity.

Tools for assessing climate impacts on fish and wildlife

Treesearch

Chad B. Wilsey; Joshua J. Lawler; Edwin P. Maurer; Donald McKenzie; Patricia A. Townsend; Richard Gwozdz; James A. Freund; Keala Hagmann; Karen M. Hutten

2013-01-01

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we...

How Technology Changes Demands for Human Skills. OECD Education Working Papers, No. 45

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Frank

2010-01-01

This paper places the competencies to be measured by the OECD's Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) in the context of the technological developments which are reshaping the nature of the workplace and work in the 21st century. The largest technological force currently shaping work is the computer. Computers are…

Designing Technology: An Exploration of the Relationship between Technological Literacy and Design Capability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hope, Gill

2013-01-01

The aim of this article is to contribute to the debate on the nature of technology education. This is especially pertinent at times of curriculum change and uncertainty, such as currently exist in relation to the Primary school curriculum in England and Wales. Two phrases ("technological literacy" and "design capability") have…

Effect of multiple stressors on eelgrass Zostera marina L. from the Pacific Northwest, USA: Manipulation of temperature and nutrients - November 2011

EPA Science Inventory

Estuarine eelgrass beds in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) are being exposed to a range of natural and anthropogenic stressors and climate change. The purpose of the current study was to examine the effects of temperature and nutrient quantity on Z. marina growth and physiology. Ma...

Ecology of Buzzards Bay: An Estuarine Profile

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-09-01

bucera Polychaeta Ascophyllum nodosum Phaeophyta Tellina tenera Bivalvia Fucus vesiculosus Phaeophyta Ninoe nigripes Polychaeata Chondrus crispus...Because the current and future environmental health of these types of embayments can be directly influenced by activities within contributing watersheds...restricted coastal embayments, while natural and anthropogenic influences responsible for present and future changes to bay systems are the focus of Chap

Roles for agroforestry in hardwood regeneration and natural-stand management

Treesearch

H. E. ' Gene' Garrett

2003-01-01

A convincing case can be made that current land-use patterns in the Central Hardwood region reflect a significant underutilization of our land-based resources. A landuse strategy is required that would allow landowners who are interested in converting marginal crop lands to forests, or unproductive woodlots to productive woodlots, to make the change without financial...

Imaginary Gardens? Real Problems: An Analysis of Federal Information Sources on Rural Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parks, Gail; Sher, Jonathan P.

Comprehension of the current condition of rural education is essential to national education policy and program considerations, yet rural schools go unnoticed at the federal level because of a paucity of national rural data. The changing nature of rural population, the national mandate for equal educational opportunity, and the need for a timely…

Natural enemies govern ecosystem resilience in the face of extreme droughts.

PubMed

He, Qiang; Silliman, Brian R; Liu, Zezheng; Cui, Baoshan

2017-02-01

Severe droughts are on the rise in many regions. But thus far, attempts to predict when drought will cause a major regime shift or when ecosystems are resilient, often using plant drought tolerance models, have been frustrated. Here, we show that pressure from natural enemies regulates an ecosystem's resilience to severe droughts. Field experiments revealed that in protected salt marshes experiencing a severe drought, plant-eating grazers eliminated drought-stressed vegetation that could otherwise survive and recover from the climate extreme, transforming once lush marshes into persistent salt barrens. These results provide an explicit experimental demonstration for the obligatory role of natural enemies across the initiation, expansion and recovery stages of a natural ecosystem's collapse. Our study highlights that natural enemies can hasten an ecosystem's resilience to drought to much lower levels than currently predicted, calling for integration into climate change predictions and conservation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Landscape anthropogenic disturbance in the Mediterranean ecosystem: is the current landscape sustainable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, Guido; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo; Franciosi, Chiara; Lima, Marco

2013-04-01

Mediterranean landscape during the last centuries has been subject to strong anthropogenic disturbances who shifted natural vegetation cover in a cultural landscape. Most of the natural forest were destroyed in order to allow cultivation and grazing activities. In the last century, fast growing conifer plantations were introduced in order to increase timber production replacing slow growing natural forests. In addition, after the Second World War most of the grazing areas were changed in unmanaged mediterranean conifer forest frequently spread by fires. In the last decades radical socio economic changes lead to a dramatic abandonment of the cultural landscape. One of the most relevant result of these human disturbances, and in particular the replacement of deciduous forests with coniferous forests, has been the increasing in the number of forest fires, mainly human caused. The presence of conifers and shrubs, more prone to fire, triggered a feedback mechanism that makes difficult to return to the stage of potential vegetation causing huge economic, social and environmental damages. The aim of this work is to investigate the sustainability of the current landscape. A future landscape scenario has been simulated considering the natural succession in absence of human intervention assuming the current fire regime will be unaltered. To this end, a new model has been defined, implementing an ecological succession model coupled with a simply Forest Fire Model. The ecological succession model simulates the vegetation dynamics using a rule-based approach discrete in space and time. In this model Plant Functional Types (PFTs) are used to describe the landscape. Wildfires are randomly ignited on the landscape, and their propagation is simulated using a stochastic cellular automata model. The results show that the success of the natural succession toward a potential vegetation cover is prevented by the frequency of fire spreading. The actual landscape is then unsustainable because of the high cost of fire fighting activities. The right path to success consists in development of suitable land use planning and forest management to mitigate the consequences of past anthropogenic disturbances.

Perspectives on Hydro-Climatic Change in Rivers Sourced From the Khangai Mountains, Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venable, N. B.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Tumenjargal, S.; Batbuyan, B.; Odgarav, J.; Sukhbataar, J.; Fernandez-Gimenez, M.; Adyabadam, G.

2012-12-01

Patterns of pastoralism have shaped the Mongolian countryside throughout history. These patterns are largely dictated by seasonal and extreme climate and water conditions. While change has always been a part of the traditional herder lifestyle, the magnitude and variety of impacts imposed by natural and human-induced changes in the last few decades has increased, negatively affecting the coupled natural-human systems of Mongolia. Regional hydrologic impacts from increased mining, irrigation, urbanization, and climate change are challenging to measure and model due to sparse and relatively short meteorological and hydrological records. Characterization of the variability inherent in Mongolian hydrological systems in the international literature remains limited. To quantify recent changes to these systems, several river basins near the Khangai Mountains were analyzed. These basins adjoin and include community-based managed and non-managed grazing lands under study as part of an ongoing National Science Foundation Coupled Natural and Human Systems (NSF-CNH) project. Statistically significant increasing temperatures and decreasing streamflows in the study areas support herder's perceptions of hydro-climatic changes and variability. The results of basin characterization combined with water balance modeling and trend analyses illustrate the future potential for further change in these hydro-climatic systems. Alternate land-uses and herder lifestyle modifications may amplify impacts from climatic change. Recent fieldwork also revealed complex surface-groundwater interactions in some areas that may affect model outcomes. Future explorations of longer-term variability through the use of proxies and the development of hydrologic scenarios will place the current basin analyses in context to more fully assess possible impacts to the hydrologic-human systems of Mongolia.

Integrating natural and social sciences to manage sustainably vectors of change in the marine environment: Dogger Bank transnational case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burdon, Daryl; Boyes, Suzanne J.; Elliott, Michael; Smyth, Katie; Atkins, Jonathan P.; Barnes, Richard A.; Wurzel, Rüdiger K.

2018-02-01

The management of marine resources is a complex process driven by the dynamics of the natural system and the influence of stakeholders including policy-makers. An integration of natural and social sciences research is required by policy-makers to better understand, and manage sustainably, natural changes and anthropogenic activities within particular marine systems. Given the uncertain development of activities in the marine environment, future scenarios assessments can be used to investigate whether marine policy measures are robust and sustainable. This paper develops an interdisciplinary framework, which incorporates future scenarios assessments, and identifies four main types of evaluation needed to integrate natural and social sciences research to support the integrated management of the marine environment: environmental policy and governance assessments; ecosystem services, indicators and valuation; modelling tools for management evaluations, and risk assessment and risk management. The importance of stakeholder engagement within each evaluation method is highlighted. The paper focuses on the transnational spatial marine management of the Dogger Bank, in the central North Sea, a site which is very important ecologically, economically and politically. Current management practices are reviewed, and research tools to support future management decisions are applied and discussed in relation to two main vectors of change affecting the Dogger Bank, namely commercial fisheries and offshore wind farm developments, and in relation to the need for nature conservation. The input of local knowledge through stakeholder engagement is highlighted as a necessary requirement to produce site-specific policy recommendations for the future management of the Dogger Bank. We present wider policy recommendations to integrate natural and social sciences in a global marine context.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Greene and Tioga Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E.T.; Milheim, L.E.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Fisher, G.B.

2012-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in the area of Pennsylvania. Coalbed methane, which is sometimes extracted using the same technique, is commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and is frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Greene County and Tioga County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics are also used to quantify these changes and are included in this publication.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Allegheny and Susquehanna Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004--2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E.T.; Milheim, L.E.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Malizia, A.R.

2013-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Coalbed methane, which is sometimes extracted using the same technique, is commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and is frequently developed in clusters of wells across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Allegheny County and Susquehanna County in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication.

Carbon Nanostructures in Bone Tissue Engineering

PubMed Central

Perkins, Brian Lee; Naderi, Naghmeh

2016-01-01

Background: Recent advances in developing biocompatible materials for treating bone loss or defects have dramatically changed clinicians’ reconstructive armory. Current clinically available reconstructive options have certain advantages, but also several drawbacks that prevent them from gaining universal acceptance. A wide range of synthetic and natural biomaterials is being used to develop tissue-engineered bone. Many of these materials are currently in the clinical trial stage. Methods: A selective literature review was performed for carbon nanostructure composites in bone tissue engineering. Results: Incorporation of carbon nanostructures significantly improves the mechanical properties of various biomaterials to mimic that of natural bone. Recently, carbon-modified biomaterials for bone tissue engineering have been extensively investigated to potentially revolutionize biomaterials for bone regeneration. Conclusion: This review summarizes the chemical and biophysical properties of carbon nanostructures and discusses their functionality in bone tissue regeneration. PMID:28217212

A comparative proteomic characterization and nutritional assessment of naturally- and artificially-cultivated Cordyceps sinensis.

PubMed

Zhang, Xu; Liu, Qun; Zhou, Wei; Li, Ping; Alolga, Raphael N; Qi, Lian-Wen; Yin, Xiaojian

2018-06-15

Cordyceps sinensis has gained increasing attention due to its nutritional and medicinal properties. Herein, we employed label-free quantitative mass spectrometry to explore the proteome differences between naturally- and artificially-cultivated C. sinensis. A total of 22,829 peptides with confidence ≥95%, corresponding to 2541 protein groups were identified from the caterpillar bodies/stromata of 12 naturally- and artificially-cultivated samples of C. sinensis. Among them, 165 proteins showed significant differences between the samples of natural and artificial cultivation. These proteins were mainly involved in energy production/conversion, amino acid transport/metabolism, and transcription regulation. The proteomic results were confirmed by the identification of 4 significantly changed metabolites, thus, lysine, threonine, serine, and arginine via untargeted metabolomics. The change tendencies of these metabolites were partly in accordance with changes in abundance of the proteins, which was upstream of their synthetic pathways. In addition, the nutritional value in terms of the levels of nucleosides, nucleotides, and adenosine between the artificially- and naturally-cultivated samples was virtually same. These proteomic data will be useful for understanding the medicinal value of C. sinensis and serve as reference for its artificial cultivation. C. sinensis is a precious and valued medicinal product, the current basic proteome dataset would provide useful information to understand its development/infection processes as well as help to artificially cultivate it. This work would also provide basic proteome profile for further study of C. sinensis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A reversal of fortunes: climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in Antarctic Peninsula penguins

PubMed Central

Clucas, Gemma V.; Dunn, Michael J.; Dyke, Gareth; Emslie, Steven D.; Levy, Hila; Naveen, Ron; Polito, Michael J.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Rogers, Alex D.; Hart, Tom

2014-01-01

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces ‘winners’, species that benefit from these events and ‘losers’, species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adélie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a ‘reversal of fortunes’ as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change ‘winners’, while Adélie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change ‘losers’. PMID:24865774

A reversal of fortunes: climate change 'winners' and 'losers' in Antarctic Peninsula penguins.

PubMed

Clucas, Gemma V; Dunn, Michael J; Dyke, Gareth; Emslie, Steven D; Naveen, Ron; Polito, Michael J; Pybus, Oliver G; Rogers, Alex D; Hart, Tom

2014-06-12

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces 'winners', species that benefit from these events and 'losers', species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adélie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a 'reversal of fortunes' as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change 'winners', while Adélie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change 'losers'.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM)more » is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.« less

Time-Variable Phenomena in the Jovian System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belton, Michael J. S. (Editor); West, Robert A. (Editor); Rahe, Jurgen (Editor); Pereyda, Margarita

1989-01-01

The current state of knowledge of dynamic processes in the Jovian system is assessed and summaries are provided of both theoretical and observational foundations upon which future research might be based. There are three sections: satellite phenomena and rings; magnetospheric phenomena, Io's torus, and aurorae; and atmospheric phenomena. Each chapter discusses time dependent theoretical framework for understanding and interpreting what is observed; others describe the evidence and nature of observed changes or their absence. A few chapters provide historical perspective and attempt to present a comprehensive synthesis of the current state of knowledge.

Intonation in neurogenic foreign accent syndrome.

PubMed

Kuschmann, Anja; Lowit, Anja; Miller, Nick; Mennen, Ineke

2012-01-01

Foreign accent syndrome (FAS) is a motor speech disorder in which changes to segmental as well as suprasegmental aspects lead to the perception of a foreign accent in speech. This paper focuses on one suprasegmental aspect, namely that of intonation. It provides an in-depth analysis of the intonation system of four speakers with FAS with the aim of establishing the intonational changes that have taken place as well as their underlying origin. Using the autosegmental-metrical framework of intonational analysis, four different levels of intonation, i.e., inventory, distribution, realisation and function, were examined in short sentences. Results revealed that the speakers with FAS had the same structural inventory at their disposal as the control speakers, but that they differed from the latter in relation to the distribution, implementation and functional use of their inventory. The current results suggest that these intonational changes cannot be entirely attributed to an underlying intonation deficit but reflect secondary manifestations of physiological constraints affecting speech support systems and compensatory strategies. These findings have implications for the debate surrounding intonational deficits in FAS, advocating a reconsideration of current assumptions regarding the underlying nature of intonation impairment in FAS. The reader will be able to (1) explain the relevance of intonation in defining foreign accent syndrome; (2) describe the process of intonation analysis within the autosegmental-metrical (AM) framework; and (3) discuss the manifestation of intonation changes in FAS at the different levels of intonation and their potential underlying nature. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterization of Local pH Changes in Brain Using Fast-Scan Cyclic Voltammetry with Carbon Microelectrodes

PubMed Central

Takmakov, Pavel; Zachek, Matthew K.; Keithley, Richard B.; Bucher, Elizabeth; McCarty, Gregory S.; Wightman, R. Mark

2010-01-01

Transient local pH changes in the brain are important markers of neural activity that can be used to follow metabolic processes that underlie the biological basis of behavior, learning and memory. There are few methods that can measure pH fluctuations with sufficient time resolution in freely moving animals. Previously, fast-scan cyclic voltammetry at carbon-fiber microelectrodes was used for the measurement of such pH transients. However, the origin of the potential dependent current in the cyclic voltammograms for pH changes recorded in vivo was unclear. The current work explored the nature of these peaks and established the origin for some of them. A peak relating to the capacitive nature of the pH CV was identified. Adsorption of electrochemically inert species, such as aromatic amines and calcium could suppress this peak, and is the origin for inconsistencies regarding in vivo and in vitro data. Also, we identified an extra peak in the in vivo pH CV relating to the presence of 3,4-dihydroxyacetic acid (DOPAC) in the brain extracellular fluid. To evaluate the in vivo performance of the carbon-fiber sensor, carbon dioxide inhalation by an anesthetized rat was used to induce brain acidosis induced by hypercapnia. Hypercapnia is demonstrated to be a useful tool to induce robust in vivo pH changes, allowing confirmation of the pH signal observed with FSCV. PMID:21047096

Effects of Disasters on Smoking and Relapse: An Exploratory Study of Hurricane Katrina Victims.

PubMed

Lanctot, Jennifer Q; Stockton, Michelle B; Mzayek, Fawaz; Read, Mary; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan; Ward, Kenneth

2008-01-01

Psychosocial stress maintains cigarette use and precipitates relapse, but little is known about how natural disasters in particular affect smoking. To determine the feasibility of recruiting victims soon after a natural disaster for a survey study, and to assess the types and determinants of changes in smoking behavior resulting from exposure to the disaster. A convenience sample of 35 Hurricane Katrina refugees who had smoked more than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime were surveyed one month after the storm to evaluate changes in smoking behavior. Among a small sample of former smokers, more than half relapsed after Katrina, citing stress, urge, and sadness. Among current smokers, 52% increased their smoking after Katrina by more than half a pack per day on average. Most individuals who increased their smoking or relapsed expressed interest in receiving cessation assistance within the next month. Stress-related increases in smoking and relapse may be common after a natural disaster. Health education professionals have an important role to play in responding to changes in tobacco use in the aftermath of disasters. Educational interventions to discourage tobacco use as a coping strategy may be especially warranted given the high level of interest expressed in smoking cessation.

How Can the Science Community Support Reality Based Policies to Reducing the Escalating Toll of Natural Hazards?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, E. A.

2012-12-01

Worldwide, the toll of disaster damage caused by foreseeable natural hazards is growing, despite the fact that science is increasingly able to quantify the risk and foresee the likely location of natural events (NCDC 2012; NHC 2010). Those events can cause disastrous consequences if human built infrastructure is not properly designed for both the current state and future events (IBHS, 2012). Our existing approaches are not working at reducing the mounting toll of disasters which follow foreseeable natural events. Rather, even if the climate were not changing, current land use decisions coupled with development, engineering, design, and construction practices are significantly contributing to further increasing an unsustainable toll from disasters (Pielke, Gratz et al. 2007). Safe and proper construction practices developed to reduce flood losses (e.g. Design for Flooding, Watson, Adams et al., 2010) are all too often thought of as a zero sum situation where the community wins and the developer loses. In reality, the United States and the rest of the world often can find win-win solutions based on sound economics, law, ethics, and environmental sustainability that will benefit communities, developers, and natural hazard risk mitigation practitioners. While such solutions are being implemented in a fragmentary manner throughout the United States, communities implementing these solutions are increasingly working together in peer networks, such as the Natural Hazard Mitigation Association (NHMA)'s Resilient Neighbors Network. Examples include the Urban Drainage and Flood Control District that covers the metropolitan Denver area and recent work in Tulsa, Oklahoma. This presentation will set forth the scientific, ethical, and legal basis of higher development standards which, when combined with good negotiations techniques, can significantly decrease the terrible misery from wildfires, tornadoes, floods, and other natural disasters. Communities clearly have the legal right to implement safe design standards (Thomas, Riley Medlock 2008); yet all too often do not (NOAA, 2010). The required negotiations techniques must include outreach even to those who believe the topics of climate change and sustainability are some sort of plot against property rights and the free enterprise system. The presentation will also challenge the scientific community to support reasoned efforts to better prepare society for the even greater challenges posed by climate variability, uncertainty, and change: to work with practitioners who seek to build a safe and sustainable future to identify gaps in scientific knowledge and help develop workable solutions at the local level. Edward A. Thomas Esq. President Natural Hazard Mitigation Association

Scalar flavor changing neutral currents and rare top quark decays in a two Higgs doublet model 'for the top quark'

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baum, Itzhak; Physics Department, Technion-Institute of Technology, Haifa 32000; Eilam, Gad

2008-06-01

In the so-called two Higgs doublet model for the top quark (T2HDM), first suggested by Das and Kao, the top quark receives a special status, which endows it with a naturally large mass, and also potentially gives rise to large flavor changing neutral currents only in the up-quark sector. In this paper, we calculate the branching ratio for the rare decays t{yields}ch and h{yields}tc (h is a neutral Higgs scalar) in the T2HDM, at tree level and at 1-loop when it exceeds the tree level. We compare our results to predictions from other versions of 2HDM's and find that themore » scalar flavor changing neutral currents in the T2HDM can play a significant role in these decays. In particular, the 1-loop mediated decays can be significantly enhanced in the T2HDM compared with the 2HDM of types I and II, in some instances reaching BR{approx}10{sup -4}, which is within the detectable level at the LHC.« less

Monitoring structural breaks in vegetation dynamics of the nature reserve Königsbrücker Heide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessollek, Christine; Karrasch, Pierre

2017-10-01

Nowadays remote sensing is a well-established method and technique of providing data. The current development shows the availability of systems with very high geometric resolution for the monitoring of vegetation. At the same time, however, the value of temporally high-resolution data is underestimated, particularly in applications focusing on the detection of short-term changes. These can be natural processes like natural disasters as well as changes caused by anthropogenic interventions. These include economic activities such as forestry, agriculture or mining but also processes which are intended to convert previously used areas into natural or near-natural surfaces. The K¨onigsbr¨ucker Heide is a former military training site located about 30 km north of the Saxon state capitol Dresden. After the withdrawal of the Soviet forces in 1992 and after nearly 100 years of military use this site was declared as nature reserve in 1996. The management of the whole protection area is implemented in three different management zone. Based on MODIS-NDVI time series between 2000 and 2016 different developments are apparent in the nature development zone and the zone of controlled succession. Nevertheless, the analyses also show that short-term changes, so called breaks in the vegetation development cannot be described using linear trend models. The complete understanding of vegetation trends is only given if discontinuities in vegetation development are considered. Structural breaks in the NDVI time series can be found simultaneously in the whole study area. Hence it can be assumed that these breaks have a more natural character, caused for example by climatic conditions like temperature or precipitation. Otherwise, especially in the zone of controlled succession structural breaks can be detected which cannot be traced back to natural conditions. Final analyses of the spatial distribution of breakpoints as well as their frequency depending on the respective protection zone allow a detailed view to vegetation development in the K¨onigsbr¨ucker Heide.

New approach to flavor symmetry and an extended naturalness principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barr, S. M.

2010-09-01

A class of nonsupersymmetric extensions of the standard model is proposed in which there is a multiplicity of light scalar doublets in a multiplet of a nonabelian family group with the standard model Higgs doublet. Anthropic tuning makes the latter light, and consequently the other scalar doublets remain light because of the family symmetry. The family symmetry greatly constrains the pattern of flavor-changing neutral-current interactions (FCNC) and p decay operators coming from scalar-exchange. Such models show that useful constraints on model-building can come from an extended naturalness principle when the electroweak scale is anthropically tuned.

Research challenges in digital education.

PubMed

Norman, Geoff

2014-09-01

Simulation and other forms of digital learning will occupy a place of increasing prominence in medical education in the future. However, to maximally use the potential of these media, we must go beyond a research agenda dictated by a 'Does it work?' question to one driven by careful analysis of the nature of the task to be learned and its relation to the characteristics of the technology. Secondly, we must change the focus from the characteristics of individual devices to a broader approach to design of a digital curriculum based on current understanding of the nature of human learning.

The Changing Nature of QU Carinae: SN Ia Progenitor or a Hoax?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafka, Stella

2013-01-01

The race to the elusive Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) progenitors is at its zenith, with numerous clues from SNe Ia ejecta and a dearth of observational candidates. Still, the single degenerate channel is a viable route of mass accumulation onto a white dwarf to the Chandrasekhar limit. I present long-term high resolution spectroscopy of QU Carinae, one of the most promising single degenerate SNe Ia progenitors. I discuss its highly variable nature and compare it to current scenarios for mass accumulation onto high-mass white dwarfs, eventually leading to WD detonation and to a supernova explosion.

Understanding How Climate Change Could Affect Tornadoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsner, James; Guishard, Mark

2014-11-01

Current understanding of how tornadoes might change with global warming is limited. Incomplete data sets and the small-scale nature of tornadic events make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. A consensus report on the climate of extreme storms found little evidence of trends in tornado frequency in the United States. However new research suggests a potential climate change footprint on tornadoes. Some of this research was presented at the First International Summit on Tornadoes and Climate Change, hosted by Aegean Conferences. The summit took place at the Minoa Palace in Chania, Greece, from 25 to 30 May 2014. Thirty delegates from eight countries—Greece, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, Japan, Israel, and Taiwan—participated.

[Spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under future climate change].

PubMed

Liu, Jian-gong; Zhu, Qiu-an; Shen, Yan; Yang, Yan-zheng; Luo, Yun-peng; Peng, Chang-hui

2015-11-01

Based on a new process-based model, TRIPLEX-GHG, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed, the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8% by the end of 21st century under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides, there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially, the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future, most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However, under RCP2.6 scenario, the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4 emissions (especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) begin to decrease in the late 21st century.

The climatic sensitivity of the forest, savanna and forest-savanna transition in tropical South America.

PubMed

Hirota, Marina; Nobre, Carlos; Oyama, Marcos Daisuke; Bustamante, Mercedes M C

2010-08-01

*We used a climate-vegetation-natural fire (CVNF) conceptual model to evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of forest, savanna, and the forest-savanna transition to environmental changes in tropical South America. *Initially, under current environmental conditions, CVNF model results suggested that, in the absence of fires, tropical forests would extend c. 200 km into the presently observed savanna domain. *Environmental changes were then imposed upon the model in temperature, precipitation and lightning strikes. These changes ranged from 2 to 6 degrees C warming, +10 to -20% precipitation change and 0 to 15% increase in lightning frequency, which, in aggregate form, represent expected future climatic changes in response to global warming and deforestation. *The most critical vegetation changes are projected to take place over the easternmost portions of the basin, with a widening of the forest-savanna transition. The transition width would increase from 150 to c. 300 km, with tree cover losses ranging from 20 to 85%. This means that c. 6% of the areas currently covered by forests could potentially turn into grass-dominated savanna landscapes. The mechanism driving tree cover reduction consists of the combination of less favorable climate conditions for trees and more fire activity. In addition, this sensitivity analysis predicts that the current dry shrubland vegetation of northeast Brazil could potentially turn into a bare soil landscape.

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations

PubMed Central

Whitacre, James M.; Atamas, Sergei P.

2013-01-01

Trait diversity – the substrate for natural selection – is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy’s role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes. PMID:22910487

Residential demand for energy. Volume 1: Residential energy demand in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, L. D.; Blattenberger, G. R.; Rennhack, R. K.

1982-04-01

Updated and improved versions of the residential energy demand models that are currently used in EPRI's Demand 80/81 Model are presented. The primary objective of the study is the development and estimation of econometric demand models that take into account in a theoretically appropriate way the problems caused by decreasing-block pricing in the sale of electricity and natural gas. An ancillary objective is to take into account the impact on electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil demands of differences and changes in the availability of natural gas. Econometric models of residential demand are estimated for all three fuel tyes using time series data by state. Price and income elasticities for a number of alternative models are presented.

Determination of the natural convection coefficient in low-gravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldmeer, J.; Motevalli, V.; Haghdoust, M.; Jumper, G.

1992-01-01

Fire safety is an important issue in the current space program; ignition in low-g needs to be studied. The reduction in the gravitational acceleration causes changes in the ignition process. This paper examines the effect of gravity on natural convection, which is one of the important parameters in the ignition process. The NASA-Lewis 2.2 Second Drop Tower provided the low-gravity environment for the experiments. A series of experiments was conducted to measure the temperature of a small copper plate which was heated by a high intensity lamp. These experiments verified that in low-gravity the plate temperature increased faster than in the corresponding 1-g cases, and that the natural convection coefficient rapidly decreased in the low-gravity environment.

Current issues in natural gas lubrication

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reber, J.

1997-10-01

Because of the ability of natural gas to burn completely relatively easily, supplying excess oxygen to promote complete reactions is a viable alternative to catalysts. Hence, lean burn technology has a natural fit for this industry. Lube oil is not adversely affected by lean burn operation. There is a slight tendency to cause more oil nitration than oxidation, but the real difference is not significant. Operators may notice somewhat more varnish (caramel color) and less sludge (black) as a result. Because the fuel is burned more completely, there is less problem with fuel-derived oil contamination. Also because of the excessmore » air in the combustion chamber, overall cylinder temperature is lower, causing less stress on the oil. Oil life is generally lengthened. One common misconception that lean burn engines require different lubricants may stem from a change at Waukesha Engine Division--Dresser Industries. Waukesha has changed its lube oil requirements for VHP 3521, 5115, 7042, 9390 GL turbocharged and lean burn model engines. The lube oil specification for these engines is 1% to 1.7% ash with the same 0.10% zinc maximum. This change is not because of the lean burn nature of these engines, rather it is because of drastically decreased lube oil consumption. With less oil consumption, less ash is carried to the critical exhaust valve seat area to prevent valve recession.« less

Dryland ecohydrology and climate change: critical issues and technical advances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; D'Odorico, P.; Evans, J. P.; Eldridge, D.; McCabe, M. F.; Caylor, K. K.; King, E. G.

2012-04-01

Drylands cover about 40% of the terrestrial land surface and account for approximately 40% of global net primary productivity. Water is fundamental to the biophysical processes that sustain ecosystem function and food production, particularly in drylands, where a tight coupling exists between water resource availability and ecosystem productivity, surface energy balance, and biogeochemical cycles. Currently, drylands support at least 2 billion people and comprise both natural and managed ecosystems. In this synthesis, we identify some current critical issues in the understanding of dryland systems and discuss how arid and semiarid environments are responding to the changes in climate and land use. Specifically, we focus on dryland agriculture and food security, dryland population growth, desertification, shrub encroachment and dryland development issues as factors of change requiring increased understanding and management. We also review recent technical advances in the quantitative assessment of human versus climate change related drivers of desertification, evapotranspiration partitioning using field deployable stable water isotope systems and the remote sensing of key ecohydrological processes. These technological advances provide new tools that assist in addressing major critical issues in dryland ecohydrology under climate change

Assessing Climate Change Perceptions, Management Strategies, and Information Needs for Indiana Agricultural and Forestry Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherkauer, K. A.; Chin, N.

2016-12-01

The agricultural and forestry sectors in the state of Indiana are highly dependent on climate and, subsequently, highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Higher temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns, more widespread prevalence of pests and pathogens, and increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events could all have negative effects on these two sectors in the future. Agricultural and forest producers are already modifying their management strategies in response to perceptions of changes in climate risk, but such responses have been primarily reactive in nature and, in many cases, demonstrate a disconnect between scientific findings and stakeholder perceptions of the greatest climate risks. This research has been conducted to help improve understanding of climate change risks to agriculture and forestry in Indiana; stakeholder perceptions of climate risks and their current management strategies; and the effectiveness of these management strategies for dealing with current and future climate risk. Sector-specific focus groups, expert panel assessments and surveys have all been utilized in this work, which will also contribute to the new Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment report.

Using the Theme of Mass Extinctions to Teach Science to Non-Science Major College and University Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boness, D. A.

2013-12-01

The general public is heavily exposed to "news" and commentary---and arts and entertainment---that either inadvertently misrepresents science or even acts to undermine it. Climate change denial and evolution denial is well funded and pervasive. Even university-educated people get little exposure to the aims, methods, debates, and results of scientific inquiry because unless they earn degrees in science they typically only take one or two introductory science courses at the university level. This presentation reports the development of a new, non-science major Seattle University course on mass extinctions throughout earth history. Seattle University is an urban, Jesuit Catholic university. The topic of mass extinctions was chosen for several reasons: (1) To expose the students to a part of current science that has rich historical roots yet by necessity uses methods and reasoning from geology, geophysics, oceanography, physics, chemistry, biology, and astronomy. This multidisciplinary course provides some coverage of sciences that the student would not typically ever see beyond secondary school. (2) To enable the students to learn enough to follow some of the recent and current debates within science (e.g., mass extinctions by asteroid impact versus massive volcanism, ocean anoxia, and ocean acidification), with the students reading some of the actual literature, such as articles in Science, Nature, or Nature Geoscience. (3) To emphasize the importance of "deep time" as evolutionary biological processes interact with massive environmental change over time scales from hundreds of millions of years down to the seconds and hours of an asteroid or comet strike. (4) To show the effects of climate change in the past, present, and future, due to both natural and anthropogenic causes. (5) To help the student critically evaluate the extent to which their future involves a human-caused mass extinction.

Evidence for phase change memory behavior in In2(SexTe1-x)3 thin films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matheswaran, P.; Sathyamoorthy, R.; Asokan, K.

2012-08-01

Crystalline In2(Se0.5Te0.5)3 thin films are prepared by thermal evaporation and subsequently annealed at 300°C in Ar atmosphere. SEM image of the crystalline sample shows spherical nature of constituents, distributed uniformly throughout the surface. Island structure of the surface is clearly visible after switching. Elemental composition of the sample remains unchanged even after switching. Temperature dependent I-V analysis shows stoichiometric phase change at 80°C [from In2(Se0.5Te0.5)3 to In2Te3 and In2Se3 phase], where current switches three orders of magnitude higher than that in lower temperature. Further rise in temperature results increase in current only after switching, where threshold voltage remains constant.

US strategy for forest management adaptation to climate change: building a framework for decision making

Treesearch

V. Alaric Sample; Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

2014-01-01

This paper describes methods developed to (1) assess current risks, vulnerabilities, and gaps in knowledge; (2) engage internal agency resources and external partners in the development of options and solutions; and (3) manage forest resources for resilience, not just in terms of natural ecosystems but in affected human communities as well. We describe an approach...

76 FR 16650 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change To Amend...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-24

... investors and the public interest; and are not designed to permit unfair discrimination among customers... proposed rule's impact on efficiency, competition, and capital formation. 15 U.S.C. 78c(f). \\9\\ 15 U.S.C... between customers based on the nature and profitability of their business. Currently under BOX's rules, an...

Can One Hour Per Week of Therapy Lead to Lasting Changes in Young Children with Autism?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vismara, Laurie A.; Colombi, Costanza; Rogers, Sally J.

2009-01-01

Deficits in attention, communication, imitation, and play skills reduce opportunities for children with autism to learn from natural interactive experiences that occur throughout the day. These developmental delays are already present by the time these children reach the toddler period. The current study provided a brief 12 week, 1 hour per week,…

The History in DNA: A Proposal to Generate a Change of Vision of Science in School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cortez, Leonardo A.; Latorre, Nubia P.; Hernández, Rubinsten

2016-01-01

Currently, in science teaching and in particular, natural science teaching there are concepts in the school that have a high level of abstraction. Concepts, such as atom, gene, mole and energy, among others are difficult to explain in an understanding manner to students. This situation requires the teacher to design alternative strategies to…

The Changing Face of the Australian Teaching Profession: New Generations and New Ways of Working and Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mayer, Diane

2006-01-01

Today's workforce is characterised by an increasing mix of people with varying career aspirations, work motivators and job satisfiers. This paper discusses the intergenerational nature of today's workforce, which is currently dominated by the age groups commonly referred to as Baby Boomers and Generation X. The Baby Boomers defined and redefined…

Relationships among climate, forests, and insects in North America: Examples of the importance of long-term and broad-scale perspectives

Treesearch

Talbot Trotter

2013-01-01

Forest structure is strongly influenced by disturbance, agents of which can include fire, weather, mammals, annelids, fungi, insects, and increasingly with the advent of the Anthropocene, climate. Currently, climate change represents one of the broadest threats to natural systems, including forests, with the potential to directly alter forest structure and function...

The Changing Nature and Definitions of Industrial Design and Implications for Prospective Undergraduate Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goatman, Mike; Moody, Louise

2014-01-01

There are currently a wide range of Higher Education Industrial Design courses available in the UK. In the present era, a wider breadth of narrative has developed within the subject, and as a result the content of industrial design educational offerings varies considerably. The paper assesses the industry view of Industrial Design as a discipline…

Integrating Educational Technologies into the Culinary Classroom and Instructional Kitchen

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glass, Samuel

2005-01-01

The integration of educational technologies has and will continue to change the nature of education. From the advent of the printed word to the current use of computer assisted teaching and learning, the use of technology is an integral part of modern day realities and approaches to education. The purpose of this paper is to review some of the…

Rigidity-tuning conductive elastomer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Wanliang; Diller, Stuart; Tutcuoglu, Abbas; Majidi, Carmel

2015-06-01

We introduce a conductive propylene-based elastomer (cPBE) that rapidly and reversibly changes its mechanical rigidity when powered with electrical current. The elastomer is rigid in its natural state, with an elastic (Young’s) modulus of 175.5 MPa, and softens when electrically activated. By embedding the cPBE in an electrically insulating sheet of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), we create a cPBE-PDMS composite that can reversibly change its tensile modulus between 37 and 1.5 MPa. The rigidity change takes ˜6 s and is initiated when a 100 V voltage drop is applied across the two ends of the cPBE film. This magnitude of change in elastic rigidity is similar to that observed in natural skeletal muscle and catch connective tissue. We characterize the tunable load-bearing capability of the cPBE-PDMS composite with a motorized tensile test and deadweight experiment. Lastly, we demonstrate the ability to control the routing of internal forces by embedding several cPBE-PDMS ‘active tendons’ into a soft robotic pneumatic bending actuator. Selectively activating the artificial tendons controls the neutral axis and direction of bending during inflation.

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China

PubMed Central

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J.; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-01

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change. PMID:26725308

Changing choices in health care: implications for equity, efficiency and cost.

PubMed

Bevan, Gwyn; Helderman, Jan-Kees; Wilsford, David

2010-07-01

Although choice may be seen as an end in itself, the papers included in this special issue of Health Economics, Policy and Law, examine choice policies in European systems of health care, which aim to be effective instruments for ameliorating the systemic pressures from the iron triangle of equity, efficiency, and cost. Three papers consider the nature of differences between and within countries following the Beveridge and Bismarck models of financing and organising the delivery of care, and how choices are changing within different systems. Within countries following the Beveridge model, current policies in England, Denmark and Sweden emphasise increasing patient choice of provider. Within countries following the Bismarck model, current policies in France and Germany seek to restrict choice of specialists by introducing 'soft' gatekeeping; and in the Netherlands there is a system of managed competition with choice of insurer that, in principle, allows insurers to contract selectively with providers. A fourth paper considers how government policies that seek to restrict choice within systems of universal coverage have been subject to challenges in the courts. A commentary explores the implications of the fraught and complex nature of choices between insurers and providers of health care for designing effective choice policies.

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.

PubMed

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-04

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change.

Global change effects on biogeochemical processes of Argentinian estuaries: an overview of vulnerabilities and ecohydrological adaptive outlooks.

PubMed

Kopprio, Germán A; Biancalana, Florencia; Fricke, Anna; Garzón Cardona, John E; Martínez, Ana; Lara, Rubén J

2015-02-28

The aims of this work are to provide an overview of the current stresses of estuaries in Argentina and to propose adaptation strategies from an ecohydrological approach. Several Argentinian estuaries are impacted by pollutants, derived mainly from sewage discharge and agricultural or industrial activities. Anthropogenic impacts are expected to rise with increasing human population. Climate-driven warmer temperature and hydrological changes will alter stratification, residence time, oxygen content, salinity, pollutant distribution, organism physiology and ecology, and nutrient dynamics. Good water quality is essential in enhancing estuarine ecological resilience to disturbances brought on by global change. The preservation, restoration, and creation of wetlands will help to protect the coast from erosion, increase sediment accretion rates, and improve water quality by removing excess nutrients and pollutants. The capacity of hydrologic basin ecosystems to absorb human and natural impacts can be improved through holistic management, which should consider social vulnerability in complex human-natural systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Production of bio-synthetic natural gas in Canada.

PubMed

Hacatoglu, Kevork; McLellan, P James; Layzell, David B

2010-03-15

Large-scale production of renewable synthetic natural gas from biomass (bioSNG) in Canada was assessed for its ability to mitigate energy security and climate change risks. The land area within 100 km of Canada's network of natural gas pipelines was estimated to be capable of producing 67-210 Mt of dry lignocellulosic biomass per year with minimal adverse impacts on food and fiber production. Biomass gasification and subsequent methanation and upgrading were estimated to yield 16,000-61,000 Mm(3) of pipeline-quality gas (equivalent to 16-63% of Canada's current gas use). Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of bioSNG-based electricity were calculated to be only 8.2-10% of the emissions from coal-fired power. Although predicted production costs ($17-21 GJ(-1)) were much higher than current energy prices, a value for low-carbon energy would narrow the price differential. A bioSNG sector could infuse Canada's rural economy with $41-130 billion of investments and create 410,000-1,300,000 jobs while developing a nation-wide low-carbon energy system.

Climate and land use changes effects on soil organic carbon stocks in a Mediterranean semi-natural area.

PubMed

Lozano-García, Beatriz; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Parras-Alcántara, Luis

2017-02-01

A thorough knowledge of the effects of climate and land use changes on the soil carbon pool is critical to planning effective strategies for adaptation and mitigation in future scenarios of global climate and land use change. In this study, we used CarboSOIL model to predict changes in soil organic carbon stocks in a semi-natural area of Southern Spain in three different time horizons (2040, 2070, 2100), considering two general circulation models (BCM2 and ECHAM5) and three IPCC scenarios (A1b, A2, B2). The effects of potential land use changes from natural vegetation (Mediterranean evergreen oak woodland) to agricultural land (olive grove and cereal) on soil organic carbon stocks were also evaluated. Predicted values of SOC contents correlated well those measured (R2 ranging from 0.71 at 0-25cm to 0.97 at 50-75cm) showing the efficiency of the model. Results showed substantial differences among time horizons, climate and land use scenarios and soil depth with larger decreases of soil organic carbon stocks in the long term (2100 time horizon) and particularly in olive groves. The combination of climate and land use scenarios (in particular conversion from current 'dehesa' to olive groves) resulted in yet higher losses of soil organic carbon stocks, e.g. -30, -15 and -33% in the 0-25, 25-50 and 50-75cm sections respectively. This study shows the importance of soil organic carbon stocks assessment under both climate and land use scenarios at different soil sections and point towards possible directions for appropriate land use management in Mediterranean semi natural areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fluctuating interaction network and time-varying stability of a natural fish community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushio, Masayuki; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Masuda, Reiji; Deyle, Ethan R.; Ye, Hao; Chang, Chun-Wei; Sugihara, George; Kondoh, Michio

2018-02-01

Ecological theory suggests that large-scale patterns such as community stability can be influenced by changes in interspecific interactions that arise from the behavioural and/or physiological responses of individual species varying over time. Although this theory has experimental support, evidence from natural ecosystems is lacking owing to the challenges of tracking rapid changes in interspecific interactions (known to occur on timescales much shorter than a generation time) and then identifying the effect of such changes on large-scale community dynamics. Here, using tools for analysing nonlinear time series and a 12-year-long dataset of fortnightly collected observations on a natural marine fish community in Maizuru Bay, Japan, we show that short-term changes in interaction networks influence overall community dynamics. Among the 15 dominant species, we identify 14 interspecific interactions to construct a dynamic interaction network. We show that the strengths, and even types, of interactions change with time; we also develop a time-varying stability measure based on local Lyapunov stability for attractor dynamics in non-equilibrium nonlinear systems. We use this dynamic stability measure to examine the link between the time-varying interaction network and community stability. We find seasonal patterns in dynamic stability for this fish community that broadly support expectations of current ecological theory. Specifically, the dominance of weak interactions and higher species diversity during summer months are associated with higher dynamic stability and smaller population fluctuations. We suggest that interspecific interactions, community network structure and community stability are dynamic properties, and that linking fluctuating interaction networks to community-level dynamic properties is key to understanding the maintenance of ecological communities in nature.

A climate trend analysis of Uganda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies observed changes in rainfall and temperature in Uganda, based on an analysis of a quality-controlled, long time series of station observations throughout Uganda. Extending recent trends forward, it also provides a current and near-future context for understanding the actual nature of climate change impacts in the country, and a basis for identifying climate adaptations that may protect and improve the country's food security.

Artificial gravity for long duration spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Malcolm M.

1989-01-01

This paper reviews the fundamental physical properties of gravitational and centrifugal forces, describes the physiological changes that result from long-term exposure to the nearly gravity-free environment of space, and explores the nature of these changes. The paper then cites currently employed and advanced techniques that can be used to prevent some of these changes. Following this review, the paper examines the potential use of artificial gravity as the ultimate technique to maintain terrestrial levels of physiological functioning in space, and indicates some of the critical studies that must be conducted and some of the trade-offs that must be made before artificial gravity can intelligently be used for long duration spaceflight.

Sensitivity of water resources in the Delaware River basin to climate variability and change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayers, Mark A.; Wolock, David M.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Tasker, Gary D.

1993-01-01

Because of the "greenhouse effect," projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might cause global warming, which in turn could result in changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration and in increases in sea level. This report describes the greenhouse effect; discusses the problems and uncertainties associated with the detection, prediction, and effects of climatic change, and presents the results of sensitivity-analysis studies of the potential effects of climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin. On the basis of sensitivity analyses, potentially serious shortfalls of certain water resources in the basin could result if some climatic-change scenarios become true. The results of basin streamflow-model simulations in this study demonstrate the difficulty in distinguishing effects of climatic change on streamflow and water supply from effects of natural variability in current climate. The future direction of basin changes in most water resources, furthermore, cannot be determined precisely because of uncertainty in current projections of regional temperature and precipitation. This large uncertainty indicates that, for resource planning, information defining the sensitivities of water resources to a range of climate change is most relevant. The sensitivity analyses could be useful in developing contingency plans on how to evaluate and respond to changes, should they occur.

Status of Current and Future Remote Sensing with EO-1 Hyperion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ungar, Stephen

2006-01-01

The Earth Observing-One (EO-1) satellite, launched in November of 2000, will complete six full years of operation near the end of this year. Observations from the Hyperion Imaging Spectrometer on board EO-1 have contributed to over 300 papers in refereed journals, conference proceeds and other presentations. Hyperion has been used to study a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including hazards and catastrophes, agricultural health and productivity, ecological disturbance/development, and land use/land cover change. As an example, Hyperion has been used in hazard and catastrophe studies to monitor and assess effects of tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, mudslides, tornadoes, hurricanes, wild-fires (natural and human ignited), oil spills, and the aftermath of world trade center bombing. This presentation summarizes the current status of EO-1 Hyperion in terms of key scientific findings to date and future plans for operation of this instrument through 2007.

[Comparison of soil respiration in natural Castanopsis carlesii forest and plantation forest].

PubMed

Wu, Jun-Jun; Yang, Zhi-Jie; Weng, Fa-Jin; Liu, Xiao-Fei; Chen, Chao-Qi; Lin, Wei-Sheng; Wang, Xiao-Hong; Chen, Tan

2014-06-01

By using the Li-8100 open soil carbon flux system, the dynamic change of soil respiration rate in natural Castanopsis carlesii and plantation of Castanopsis carlesii forests in Geshikao Nature Reserve in Fujian Province of China were measured from January 2011 to December 2011, with the relationship between the dynamic changes and the relation affecting factors analyzed. The monthly variation of soil respiration in the two types of forests were both single-peaked,with the peaks appeared in early June [7.03 micromol x (m2 x s) (-1)] andlate July [5.12 micromol x (m2 x s)(-1)], respectively. The average annual soil respiration rates of the two forests were 3.74 micromol x (m2 x s)(-1) and 3.05 micromol x (m2 x s)(-1), respectively, showing significant difference. Soil temperature was the main factor affecting soil respiration, explaining 80.1% and 81.0% of the monthly variation of soil respiration. There was a significant positive correlation between the soil respiration rate and soil moisture content in natural Castanopsis carlesii forest, but lower correlation in plantation of Castanopsis carlesii forest. The soil respiration had extremely significant correlation with the litterfall mass of the current month and the month before. The Q10 values of soil respiration in natural Castanopsis carlesii and plantation of Castanopsis carlesii forests were 1.86 and 2.01, and the annual CO2 fluxes were 14.34 t x (hm2 x a)(-1) and 11.18 t x (hm2 x a)(-1), respectively. The soil respiration declined by 22.03% after natural forest was changed to plantation forest.

Resilience of Socio-Hydrological Systems in Canadian Prairies to Agricultural Drainage: Policy Analysis and Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.; Xu, L.; Gober, P.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wong, J.

2017-12-01

Extensive agricultural drainage of lakes and wetlands in the Canadian Prairies has led to benefits for agricultural production, but has had a substantial influence on hydrological regimes and wetland extent. There is need for the potential impacts of current policy in changing the socio-hydrological resilience of prairie wetland basins in response to agricultural drainage to be examined. Whilst wetland drainage can increase agricultural productivity, it can also reduce stocks of natural capital and decrease ecosystem services, such as pollutant retention, habitat for waterfowls, carbon sequestration, and downstream flood attenuation. Effective policies that balance drainage benefits and negative externalities have to consider pricing. This is explored here using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model for hydrological simulations and the Inclusive Wealth approach for modelling in support of cost-benefit analysis. Inclusive wealth aggregates the value of natural, human, and technological assets used to produce social welfare. A shadow price, defined as the marginal change in social value for a marginal change in the current stock quantity, is used to valuate assets that contribute to social welfare. The shadow price of each asset is estimated by taking into account the social and economic benefits and external losses of wetland services caused by wetland drainage. The coupled model was applied to the Smith Creek Research Basin in south-eastern Saskatchewan, Canada where wetland drainage has caused major alterations of the hydrological regime including increased peak flows, discharge volumes and duration of streamflow. Changes in depressional storage in wetlands was used to calculate the corresponding changes of inclusive wealth over a 30-year period under the impacts from the limitation proposed in the Agricultural Water Management Strategy of Saskatchewan. The adjusted societal values of drainage demonstrate the dynamics between changes in hydrological conditions of wetland basins and social welfare, which help to evaluate potential impacts of the current policy on the resilience and sustainability of socio-hydrological systems. The results also help determine effective goals for management to maximize the societal benefits of drainage and minimize its negative impacts on ecosystem functions.

A Carbonate Platform Record of Neogene Paleoenvironmental Changes in the Indian Ocean (Maldives)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betzler, C.; Kroon, D.; Lindhorst, S.; Reolid, J.; Lüdmann, T.; Eberli, G. P.

2017-12-01

The Maldives Inner Sea is a natural sediment trap which preserves a 25 Myrs record of paleoenvironmental changes in the Indian Ocean. This encompasses records of past changes in sea level, productivity, and circulation, but also of the dust influx. As such, the sedimentary succession, which has been cored during IODP Expedition 359, provides the opportunity to study the evolution and the dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon. This amends the reconstruction developed in other, mainly siliciclastic records such as in the Bengal and Indus fan deposits. Seismic-, downhole-, and core data show that windblown dust has been deposited in the Maldives since 22 Ma. However, from 22 to 13 Ma the sedimentation in the Maldives under a weak monsoon was mainly controlled by sea level changes. At 13 Ma this situation changed, and wind driven currents started to control sedimentation, as reflected by the onset of widespread drift deposits. This is interpreted to reflect a more vigorous atmospheric circulation. Linked to the current onset, there was a rise of productivity and a coeval expansion of the oxygen minimum zone. Changes in magnetic susceptibility during the Late Miocene and Pliocene, as imaged in downhole magnetic susceptibility logs are interpreted to reflect fluctuations of the dust influx, mainly from the Indian subcontinent. The combination of XRF data and non-carbonate grain-size data allows a further and detailed reconstruction of variations in the dust influx and bottom-current changes for the last 4 Myrs.

Financial vulnerability of the electricity sector to drought, and the impacts of changes in generation mix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kern, J.

2015-12-01

Electric power utilities are increasingly cognizant of the risks water scarcity and rising temperatures pose for generators that use water as a "fuel" (i.e., hydroelectric dams) and generators that use water for cooling (i.e., coal, natural gas and nuclear). At the same time, utilities are under increasing market and policy pressure to retire coal-fired generation, the primary source of carbon emissions in the electric power sector. Due to falling costs of renewables and low natural gas prices, retiring coal fired generation is mostly being replaced with combined cycle natural gas, wind and solar. An immediate benefit of this shift has been a reduction in water withdrawals per megawatt-hour and reduced thermal impacts in surface water systems. In the process of retiring older coal-fired power plants, many of which use water intensive open-loop cooling systems, utilities are making their systems less vulnerable to water scarcity and higher water temperatures. However, it is not clear whether financial risks from water scarcity will decrease as result of this change. In particular, the choice to replace coal with natural gas combined cycle plants leaves utilities financially exposed to natural gas prices, especially during droughts when natural gas generation is used to replace lost hydropower production. Utility-scale solar, while more expensive than natural gas combined cycle generation, gives utilities an opportunity to simultaneously reduce their exposure to water scarcity and fuel price risk. In this study, we assess how switching from coal to natural gas and solar changes a utility's financial exposure to drought. We model impacts on retail prices and a utility's rate of return under current conditions and non-stationarity in natural gas prices and temperature and streamflows to determine whether increased exposure to natural gas prices offsets corresponding gains in water use efficiency. We also evaluate whether utility scale solar is an effective hedge against the combined effects of drought and natural gas price volatility—one that increases costs on average but reduces exposure to large drought-related losses.

Tiny and Hidden but Changing Your World: The Importance of Soil Microbes to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldo, N.; Neumann, R. B.

2017-12-01

When most people think about global climate change they think about massive power plants billowing smoke and expansive glaciers melting to nothingness. What the public often overlooks is how natural processes invisible to the naked eye can be changed by the climate, and the fact that the natural response to those changes can further alter the climate. Scientists call these reactions "feedback cycles", and understanding them is crucial to predicting the true impact of human activities. In our research, we study one particular feedback cycle: the effect of increased plant productivity on methane emissions from wetlands. Globally, wetlands account for about a third of annual emissions of methane, the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. This heat-trapping gas is generated in the soil of wetlands by microscopic organisms that consume, among other things, proteins and sugars released by the roots of plants. As the atmosphere becomes warmer and richer in carbon dioxide, these plants will grow larger and faster, releasing more of this microbe food into the soil. Our current research seeks to understand how that will affect the microbial ecosystem, and through it the emissions of methane gas.

Time-dependent photon heat transport through a mesoscopic Josephson device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Wen-Ting; Zhao, Hong-Kang

2017-02-01

The time-oscillating photon heat current through a dc voltage biased mesoscopic Josephson Junction (MJJ) has been investigated by employing the nonequilibrium Green's function approach. The Landauer-like formula of photon heat current has been derived in both of the Fourier space and its time-oscillating versions, where Coulomb interaction, self inductance, and magnetic flux take effective roles. Nonlinear behaviors are exhibited in the photon heat current due to the quantum nature of MJJ and applied external dc voltage. The magnitude of heat current decreases with increasing the external bias voltage, and subtle oscillation structures appear as the superposition of different photon heat branches. The overall period of heat current with respect to time is not affected by Coulomb interaction, however, the magnitude and phase of it vary considerably by changing the Coulomb interaction.

Euro-NOTES Status Paper: from the concept to clinical practice.

PubMed

Fuchs, K H; Meining, A; von Renteln, D; Fernandez-Esparrach, G; Breithaupt, W; Zornig, C; Lacy, A

2013-05-01

The concept of natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery (NOTES) consists of the reduction of access trauma by using a natural orifice access to the intra-abdominal cavity. This could possibly lead to less postoperative pain, quicker recovery from surgery, fewer postoperative complications, fewer wound infections, and fewer long-term problems such as hernias. The Euro-NOTES Foundation has organized yearly meetings to work on this concept to bring it safely into clinical practice. The aim of this Euro-NOTES status update is to assess the yearly scientific working group reports and provide an overview on the current clinical practice of NOTES procedures. After the Euro-NOTES meeting 2011 in Frankfurt, Germany, an analysis was started regarding the most important topics of the European working groups. All prospectively documented information was gathered from Euro-NOTES and D-NOTES working groups from 2007 to 2011. The top five topics were analyzed. The statements of the working group activities demonstrate the growing information and changing insights. The most important selected topics were infection issue, peritoneal access, education and training, platforms and new technology, closure, suture, and anastomosis. The focus on research topics changed over time. The principle of hybrid access has overcome the technical and safety limitations of pure NOTES. Currently the following NOTES access routes are established for several indications: transvaginal access for cholecystectomy, appendectomy and colon resections; transesophageal access for myotomy; transgastric access for full-thickness small-tumor resections; and transanal/transcolonic access for rectal and colon resections. NOTES and hybrid NOTES techniques have emerged for all natural orifices and were introduced into clinical practice with a good safety record. There are different indications for different natural orifices. Each technique has been optimized for the purpose of finding a safe and realistic solution to perform the procedure according to the specific indication.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Integrating Partial Polarization into a Metal-Ferroelectric-Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacLeod, Todd C.; Ho, Fat Duen

1999-01-01

The ferroelectric channel in a Metal-Ferroelectric-Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor (MFSFET) can partially change its polarization when the gate voltage near the polarization threshold voltage. This causes the MFSFET Drain current to change with repeated pulses of the same gate voltage near the polarization threshold voltage. A previously developed model [11, based on the Fermi-Dirac function, assumed that for a given gate voltage and channel polarization, a sin-le Drain current value would be generated. A study has been done to characterize the effects of partial polarization on the Drain current of a MFSFET. These effects have been described mathematically and these equations have been incorporated into a more comprehensive mathematical model of the MFSFET. The model takes into account the hysteresis nature of the MFSFET and the time dependent decay as well as the effects of partial polarization. This model defines the Drain current based on calculating the degree of polarization from previous gate pulses, the present Gate voltage, and the amount of time since the last Gate volta-e pulse.

Epigenetic Studies Point to DNA Replication/Repair Genes as a Basis for the Heritable Nature of Long Term Complications in Diabetes.

PubMed

Leontovich, Alexey A; Intine, Robert V; Sarras, Michael P

2016-01-01

Metabolic memory (MM) is defined as the persistence of diabetic (DM) complications even after glycemic control is pharmacologically achieved. Using a zebrafish diabetic model that induces a MM state, we previously reported that, in this model, tissue dysfunction was of a heritable nature based on cell proliferation studies in limb tissue and this correlated with epigenetic DNA methylation changes that paralleled alterations in gene expression. In the current study, control, DM, and MM excised fin tissues were further analyzed by MeDIP sequencing and microarray techniques. Bioinformatics analysis of the data found that genes of the DNA replication/DNA metabolism process group (with upregulation of the apex1, mcm2, mcm4, orc3, lig1, and dnmt1 genes) were altered in the DM state and these molecular changes continued into MM. Interestingly, DNA methylation changes could be found as far as 6-13 kb upstream of the transcription start site for these genes suggesting potential higher levels of epigenetic control. In conclusion, DNA methylation changes in members of the DNA replication/repair process group best explain the heritable nature of cell proliferation impairment found in the zebrafish DM/MM model. These results are consistent with human diabetic epigenetic studies and provide one explanation for the persistence of long term tissue complications as seen in diabetes.

Worth of Geophysical Data in Natural-Disaster-Insurance Rate Setting.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attanasi, E. D.; Karlinger, M. R.

1982-04-01

Insurance firms that offer natural-disaster insurance base their rates on available information. The benefits from collecting additional data and incorporating this information to improve parameter estimates of probability distributions that are used to characterize natural-disaster events can be determined by computing changes in premiums as a function of additional data. Specifically, the worth of data can be measured by changes in consumer's surplus (the widely applied measure of benefits to consumers used in benefit-cost analysis) brought about when the premiums are adjusted. In this paper, a formal model of the process for setting insurance rates is hypothesized in which the insurance firm sets rates so as to trade off penalties of overestimation and underestimation of expected damages estimated from currently available hydrologic data. A Bayesian preposterior analysis is performed which permits the determination of the expected benefits of collecting additional geophysical data by examining the changes in expected premium rates as a function of the longer record before the data are actually collected. An estimate of the expected benefits associated with collecting more data for the representative consumer is computed using an assumed demand function for insurance. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of expected benefits to changes in insurance demand and firm rate-setting procedures is carried out. From these results, conclusions are drawn regarding aggregate benefits to all flood insurance purchasers.

Current Status and Bioinspired Perspective of Electrochemical Conversion of CO2 to a Long-Chain Hydrocarbon.

PubMed

Yang, Ki Dong; Lee, Chan Woo; Jin, Kyoungsuk; Im, Sang Won; Nam, Ki Tae

2017-01-19

Electrocatalytic conversion of CO 2 into a long-chain hydrocarbon represents an important research direction in adding value to CO 2 -based chemicals and realizing its practical application. Long-chain hydrocarbons may change the current fossil fuel-based industry in that those chemicals have a similar energy density as gasoline, high compatibility with the current infrastructure, and low hydroscopicity for pipeline distribution. However, most of the electrocatalysts produce C 1 , C 2 , and C 3 chemicals, and methods for producing long-chain hydrocarbons are not available thus far. Interestingly, nature utilizes many enzymes to generate long-chain hydrocarbons using C 2 building blocks and suggests key mechanisms, inspiring new perspective in the design of electrocatalysts. In this Perspective, we present case studies to demonstrate how CO 2 and its reductive derivatives interact with the electrode surface during C-C bond formation and introduce how these issues are addressed in biological systems. We end this Perspective by outlining possible strategies to translate the natural mechanism into a heterogeneous electrode.

Affective responsiveness is influenced by intake of oral contraceptives.

PubMed

Radke, Sina; Derntl, Birgit

2016-06-01

Despite the widespread use of oral contraceptive pills (OCs), little is known about their impact on psychological processes and emotional competencies. Recent data indicate impaired emotion recognition in OC users compared to naturally cycling females. Building upon these findings, the current study investigated the influence of OC use on three components of empathy, i.e., emotion recognition, perspective-taking, and affective responsiveness. We compared naturally cycling women to two groups of OC users, one being tested in their pill-free week and one in the phase of active intake. Whereas groups did not differ in emotion recognition and perspective-taking, an effect of pill phase was evident for affective responsiveness: Females currently taking the pill showed better performance than those in their pill-free week. These processing advantages complement previous findings on menstrual cycle effects and thereby suggest an association with changes in endogenous and exogenous reproductive hormones. The current study highlights the need for future research to shed more light on the neuroendocrine alterations accompanying OC intake. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Using Local Stories as a Call to Action on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Minnesota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phipps, M.

2015-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy and the University of Minnesota's Regional Sustainability Development Partnerships (RSDP) have developed a novel approach to engaging rural Minnesotans on climate change issues. Through the use of personal, local stories about individuals' paths to action to mitigate and or adapt to climate change, Climate Generation and RSDP aim to spur others to action. Minnesota's Changing Climate project includes 12 Climate Convenings throughout rural Minnesota in a range of communities (tourism-based, agrarian, natural resources-based, university towns) to engage local populations in highly local conversations about climate change, its local impacts, and local solutions currently occurring. Climate Generation and RSDP have partnered with Molly Phipps Consulting to evaluate the efficacy of this approach in rural Minnesota. Data include pre and post convening surveys examining participants' current action around climate change, attitudes toward climate change (using questions from Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz, 2009), and the strength of their social network to support their current and ongoing work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Although the Climate Convenings are tailored to each community, all include a resource fair of local organizations already engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation activities which participants can participate in, a welcome from a trusted local official, a presentation on the science of climate change, sharing of local climate stories, and break-out groups where participants can learn how to get involved in a particular mitigation or adaptation strategy. Preliminary results have been positive: participants feel motivated to work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change, and more local stories have emerged that can be shared in follow-up webinars and on a project website to continue to inspire others to act.

Variation among genotypes in responses to increasing temperature in a marine parasite: evolutionary potential in the face of global warming?

PubMed

Berkhout, Boris W; Lloyd, Melanie M; Poulin, Robert; Studer, Anja

2014-11-01

Climates are changing worldwide, and populations are under selection to adapt to these changes. Changing temperature, in particular, can directly impact ectotherms and their parasites, with potential consequences for whole ecosystems. The potential of parasite populations to adapt to climate change largely depends on the amount of genetic variation they possess in their responses to environmental fluctuations. This study is, to our knowledge, the first to look at differences among parasite genotypes in response to temperature, with the goal of quantifying the extent of variation among conspecifics in their responses to increasing temperature. Snails infected with single genotypes of the trematode Maritrema novaezealandensis were sequentially acclimatised to two different temperatures, 'current' (15°C) and 'elevated' (20°C), over long periods. These temperatures are based on current average field conditions in the natural habitat and those predicted to occur during the next few decades. The output and activity of cercariae (free-swimming infective stages emerging from snails) were assessed for each genotype at each temperature. The results indicate that, on average, both cercarial output and activity are higher at the elevated acclimation temperature. More importantly, the output and activity of cercariae are strongly influenced by a genotype-by-temperature interaction, such that different genotypes show different responses to increasing temperature. Both the magnitude and direction (increase or decrease) of responses to temperature varied widely among genotypes. Therefore, there is much potential for natural selection to act on this variation, and predicting how the trematode M. novaezealandensis will respond to the climate changes predicted for the next century will prove challenging. Copyright © 2014 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of 21st century climate changes on flora and vegetation in Denmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skov, Flemming; Nygaard, Bettina; Wind, Peter; Borchsenius, Finn; Normand, Signe; Balslev, Henrik; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2009-11-01

In this paper we examined the potential impacts of predicted climatic changes on the flora and vegetation in Denmark using data from a digital database on the natural vegetation of Europe. Climate scenarios A2 and B2 were used to find regions with present climatic conditions similar to Denmark's climate in the year 2100. The potential natural vegetation of Denmark today is predominantly deciduous forest that would cover more than 90% of the landscape. Swamps, bogs, and wet forest would be found under moist or wet conditions. Dwarf shrub heaths would be naturally occurring on poor soils along the coast together with dune systems and salt-marsh vegetation. When comparing the natural vegetation of Denmark to the vegetation of five future-climate analogue areas, the most obvious trend is a shift from deciduous to thermophilous broadleaved forest currently found in Southern and Eastern Europe. A total of 983 taxa were recorded for this study of which 539 were found in Denmark. The Sørensen index was used to measure the floristic similarity between Denmark and the five subregions. Deciduous forest, dwarf shrub heath, and coastal vegetation were treated in more detail, focusing on potential new immigrant species to Denmark. Finally, implications for management were discussed. The floristic similarity between Denmark and regions in Europe with a climate similar to what is expected for Denmark in year 2100 was found to vary between 48-78%, decreasing from North to South. Hence, it seems inevitable that climate changes of the magnitudes foreseen will alter the distribution of individual species and the composition of natural vegetation units. Changes, however, will not be immediate. Historic evidence shows a considerable lag in response to climatic change under natural conditions, but little is known about the effects of human land-use and pollution on this process. Facing such uncertainties we suggested that a dynamic strategy based on modeling, monitoring and adaptive management is adopted. Modeling techniques can be constantly improved, but will never be perfect and should therefore be linked to a fine-masked network of observatories to check model predictions and feed empirical data back into the models for calibration and further development.

The relationship between climate change and the endangered rainforest shrub Triunia robusta (Proteaceae) endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu-Kimura, Yoko; Accad, Arnon; Shapcott, Alison

2017-04-01

Threatened species in rainforests may be vulnerable to climate change, because of their potentially narrow thermal tolerances, small population sizes and restricted distributions. This study modelled climate induced changes on the habitat distribution of the endangered rainforest plant Triunia robusta, endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia. Species distribution models were developed for eastern Australia at 250 m grids and southeast Queensland at 25 m grids using ground-truthed presence records and environmental predictor data. The species’ habitat distribution under the current climate was modelled, and the future potential habitat distributions were projected for the epochs 2030, 2050 and 2070. The eastern Australia model identified several spatially disjunct, broad habitat areas of coastal eastern Australia consistent with the current distribution of rainforests, and projected a southward and upslope contraction driven mainly by average temperatures exceeding current range limits. The southeast Queensland models suggest a dramatic upslope contraction toward locations where the majority of known populations are found. Populations located in the Sunshine Coast hinterland, consistent with past rainforest refugia, are likely to persist long-term. Upgrading the level of protection for less formal nature reserves containing viable populations is a high priority to better protect refugial T. robusta populations with respect to climate change.

The relationship between climate change and the endangered rainforest shrub Triunia robusta (Proteaceae) endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Shimizu-Kimura, Yoko; Accad, Arnon; Shapcott, Alison

2017-01-01

Threatened species in rainforests may be vulnerable to climate change, because of their potentially narrow thermal tolerances, small population sizes and restricted distributions. This study modelled climate induced changes on the habitat distribution of the endangered rainforest plant Triunia robusta, endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia. Species distribution models were developed for eastern Australia at 250 m grids and southeast Queensland at 25 m grids using ground-truthed presence records and environmental predictor data. The species’ habitat distribution under the current climate was modelled, and the future potential habitat distributions were projected for the epochs 2030, 2050 and 2070. The eastern Australia model identified several spatially disjunct, broad habitat areas of coastal eastern Australia consistent with the current distribution of rainforests, and projected a southward and upslope contraction driven mainly by average temperatures exceeding current range limits. The southeast Queensland models suggest a dramatic upslope contraction toward locations where the majority of known populations are found. Populations located in the Sunshine Coast hinterland, consistent with past rainforest refugia, are likely to persist long-term. Upgrading the level of protection for less formal nature reserves containing viable populations is a high priority to better protect refugial T. robusta populations with respect to climate change. PMID:28422136

Identifying drivers of biodiversity change from fossil long-lived lakes: lessons for risk and resilience of todays long-lived lake biota.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wesselingh, Frank

2015-04-01

Several fossil long-lived lake systems exist that have a very good spatiotemporal geological and faunal record enabling us to study timeseries of biodiversity change. These complexes, such as the Miocene Pannonian and Quaternary Pontocaspian systems of Europe, Quaternary Lake Biwa in Japan and the Miocene Pebas System in South America enable us to assess the impact of environmental stability and pertubation on component processes of turnover, e.g. migration, speciation and extinction/ extirpation. Also, the temporal dimensions of such processes can be clarified and compared to the nature and rates of current turnover in long-lived lake systems. Our studies suggest that we are currently witnessing dramatic biodiversity loss caused mostly by habitat degradation and destruction in smaller lakes and invasives in larger lakes that may exceed the potential of endemic lake biota to recover. Long-live lakes should serve as an excellent illustration of the magnitude of the current anthropogenic-induced biodiversity crisis.

Monotonicity-based electrical impedance tomography for lung imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Liangdong; Harrach, Bastian; Seo, Jin Keun

2018-04-01

This paper presents a monotonicity-based spatiotemporal conductivity imaging method for continuous regional lung monitoring using electrical impedance tomography (EIT). The EIT data (i.e. the boundary current-voltage data) can be decomposed into pulmonary, cardiac and other parts using their different periodic natures. The time-differential current-voltage operator corresponding to the lung ventilation can be viewed as either semi-positive or semi-negative definite owing to monotonic conductivity changes within the lung regions. We used these monotonicity constraints to improve the quality of lung EIT imaging. We tested the proposed methods in numerical simulations, phantom experiments and human experiments.

Evidence of transcranial direct current stimulation-generated electric fields at subthalamic level in human brain in vivo.

PubMed

Chhatbar, Pratik Y; Kautz, Steven A; Takacs, Istvan; Rowland, Nathan C; Revuelta, Gonzalo J; George, Mark S; Bikson, Marom; Feng, Wuwei

2018-03-13

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a promising brain modulation technique for several disease conditions. With this technique, some portion of the current penetrates through the scalp to the cortex and modulates cortical excitability, but a recent human cadaver study questions the amount. This insufficient intracerebral penetration of currents may partially explain the inconsistent and mixed results in tDCS studies to date. Experimental validation of a transcranial alternating current stimulation-generated electric field (EF) in vivo has been performed on the cortical (using electrocorticography, ECoG, electrodes), subcortical (using stereo electroencephalography, SEEG, electrodes) and deeper thalamic/subthalamic levels (using DBS electrodes). However, tDCS-generated EF measurements have never been attempted. We aimed to demonstrate that tDCS generates biologically relevant EF as deep as the subthalamic level in vivo. Patients with movement disorders who have implanted deep brain stimulation (DBS) electrodes serve as a natural experimental model for thalamic/subthalamic recordings of tDCS-generated EF. We measured voltage changes from DBS electrodes and body resistance from tDCS electrodes in three subjects while applying direct current to the scalp at 2 mA and 4 mA over two tDCS montages. Voltage changes at the level of deep nuclei changed proportionally with the level of applied current and varied with different tDCS montages. Our findings suggest that scalp-applied tDCS generates biologically relevant EF. Incorporation of these experimental results may improve finite element analysis (FEA)-based models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The relation between land use and subsidence in the Vietnamese Mekong delta.

PubMed

Minderhoud, P S J; Coumou, L; Erban, L E; Middelkoop, H; Stouthamer, E; Addink, E A

2018-09-01

The Vietnamese Mekong delta is subsiding due to a combination of natural and human-induced causes. Over the past several decades, large-scale anthropogenic land-use changes have taken place as a result of increased agricultural production, population growth and urbanization in the delta. Land-use changes can alter the hydrological system or increase loading of the delta surface, amplifying natural subsidence processes or creating new anthropogenic subsidence. The relationships between land use histories and current rates of land subsidence have so far not been studied in the Mekong delta. We quantified InSAR-derived subsidence rates for the various land-use classes and past land-use changes using a new, optical remote sensing-based, 20-year time series of land use. Lowest mean subsidence rates were found for undeveloped land-use classes, like marshland and wetland forest (~6-7mmyr -1 ), and highest rates for areas with mixed-crop agriculture and cities (~18-20mmyr -1 ). We assessed the relationship strength between current land use, land-use history and subsidence by predicting subsidence rates during the measurement period solely based on land-use history. After initial training of all land-use sequences with InSAR-derived subsidence rates, the land-use-based approach predicted 65-92% of the spatially varying subsidence rates within the measurement error range of the InSAR observations (RMSE=5.8mm). As a result, the spatial patterns visible in the observed subsidence can largely be explained by land use. We discuss in detail the dominant land-use change pathways and their indirect, causal relationships with subsidence. Our spatially explicit evaluation of these pathways provides valuable insights for policymakers concerned with land-use planning in both subsiding and currently stable areas of the Mekong delta and similar systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Few multi-year precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship

DOE PAGES

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Penuelas, Josep; ...

2016-04-06

Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effectsmore » of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. Seventy two percent of expiriments showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid.« less

Few multi-year precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Penuelas, Josep

Well-defined productivity–precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity–precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation–reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effectsmore » of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation–manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity–precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. Seventy two percent of expiriments showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation–reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid.« less

Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship.

PubMed

Estiarte, Marc; Vicca, Sara; Peñuelas, Josep; Bahn, Michael; Beier, Claus; Emmett, Bridget A; Fay, Philip A; Hanson, Paul J; Hasibeder, Roland; Kigel, Jaime; Kröel-Dulay, Gyorgy; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Lellei-Kovács, Eszter; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Reinsch, Sabine; Sala, Osvaldo E; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Sternberg, Marcelo; Tielbörger, Katja; Tietema, Albert; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-07-01

Well-defined productivity-precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity-precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation-reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effects of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation-manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity-precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. The majority of experiments (72%) showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation-reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using estimates of natural variation to detect ecologically important change in forest spatial patterns: a case study, Cascade Range, eastern Washington.

Treesearch

Paul F. Hessburg; Bradley G. Smith; R. Brion Salter

1999-01-01

Using hierarchical clustering techniques, we grouped subwatersheds on the eastern slope of the Cascade Range in Washington State into ecological subregions by similarity of area in potential vegetation and climate attributes. We then built spatially continuous historical and current vegetation maps for 48 randomly selected subwatersheds from interpretations of 1938-49...

Connecting across the Web: An Exploration of Student Perceptions of the Effects of Virtual Social Learning on Student Professional Skills in College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LaVoy, Lynea D.

2011-01-01

The emergence of a new digital landscape coupled with the pervasive nature of digital experiences has fundamentally changed both current and future students in colleges and universities across the world. A new generation of learners has entered college armed with an understanding of technology that prepares them to have a greater control over…

Culture of fire and environmental education in wildfire-prone areas: current situation in Spain

Treesearch

Clara Quesada-Fernández; Daniel Quesada-Fernández

2013-01-01

The culture of fire in the context of climate change has become a complicated relationship between people and natural areas. The interaction between people and fire is not a new issue. The use of fire by humans in most aspects of life, especially in rural areas, together with rapid and haphazard growth of structures in wildfire-prone areas, has led...

Designing a dynamic data driven application system for estimating real-time load of dissolved organic carbon in a river

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang

2012-01-01

Understanding the dynamics of naturally occurring dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in a river is central to estimating surface water quality, aquatic carbon cycling, and global climate change. Currently, determination of the DOC in surface water is primarily accomplished by manually collecting samples for laboratory analysis, which requires at least 24 h. In other words...

Predicting Trophic Interactions and Habitat Utilization in the California Current Ecosystem

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

spatial and temporal distribution of key marine organisms over multiple trophic levels, and (2) natural and anthropogenic variability in ecosystem...areas of climate modeling in upwelling regions (E. Curchitser), physical-biological modeling in the CCLME (J. Fiechter and C. Edwards), data...optimal growth conditions). By comparing interannual changes in fat depot against EOF modes for environmental variability (i.e., SST) and prey

Chapter 8: Estimating net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wood energy use; Issues and the current state of knowledge

Treesearch

Prakash Nepal; Kenneth E. Skog

2014-01-01

Use of woody biomass from sustainably managed sources to produce energy is considered an important strategy to mitigate climate change because the resource is renewable (biomass regrowth on land recaptures emitted carbon dioxide (CO2) due to biomass burning) and can substitute for fossil-fuel-based energy such as coal and natural gas. However,...

Soil fauna responses to natural disturbances, invasive species, and global climate change: Current state of the science and a call to action

Treesearch

David R. Coyle; Uma J. Nagendra; Melanie K. Taylor; J. Holly Campbell; Chelsea E. Cunard; Aaron H. Joslin; Abha Mundepi; Carly A. Phillips; Mac A. Callaham

2017-01-01

Environmental disturbances seem to be increasing in frequency and impact, yet we have little understanding of the belowground impacts of these events. Soil fauna, while widely acknowledged to be important drivers of biogeochemical function, soil structure and sustainability, and trophic interactions, are understudied compared to other belowground organisms such as...

Ionic Components of Electric Current at Rat Corneal Wounds

PubMed Central

Cao, Lin; Mannis, Mark J.; Schwab, Ivan R.; Zhao, Min

2011-01-01

Background Endogenous electric fields and currents occur naturally at wounds and are a strong signal guiding cell migration into the wound to promote healing. Many cells involved in wound healing respond to small physiological electric fields in vitro. It has long been assumed that wound electric fields are produced by passive ion leakage from damaged tissue. Could these fields be actively maintained and regulated as an active wound response? What are the molecular, ionic and cellular mechanisms underlying the wound electric currents? Methodology/Principal Findings Using rat cornea wounds as a model, we measured the dynamic timecourses of individual ion fluxes with ion-selective probes. We also examined chloride channel expression before and after wounding. After wounding, Ca2+ efflux increased steadily whereas K+ showed an initial large efflux which rapidly decreased. Surprisingly, Na+ flux at wounds was inward. A most significant observation was a persistent large influx of Cl−, which had a time course similar to the net wound electric currents we have measured previously. Fixation of the tissues abolished ion fluxes. Pharmacological agents which stimulate ion transport significantly increased flux of Cl−, Na+ and K+. Injury to the cornea caused significant changes in distribution and expression of Cl− channel CLC2. Conclusions/Significance These data suggest that the outward electric currents occurring naturally at corneal wounds are carried mainly by a large influx of chloride ions, and in part by effluxes of calcium and potassium ions. Ca2+ and Cl− fluxes appear to be mainly actively regulated, while K+ flux appears to be largely due to leakage. The dynamic changes of electric currents and specific ion fluxes after wounding suggest that electrical signaling is an active response to injury and offers potential novel approaches to modulate wound healing, for example eye-drops targeting ion transport to aid in the challenging management of non-healing corneal ulcers. PMID:21364900

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Cameron, Clarion, Elk, Forest, Jefferson, McKean, Potter, and Warren Counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milheim, L. E.; Slonecker, E. T.; Roig-Silva, C. M.; Winters, S. G.; Ballew, J. R.

2014-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract unconventional natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique for extraction, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Cameron, Clarion, Elk, Forest, Jefferson, McKean, Potter, and Warren Counties in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication. In this region, natural gas and oil development disturbed approximately 5,255 hectares (ha) (conventional, 2,400 ha; Marcellus, 357 ha; and oil, 1,883 ha) of land of which 3,507 ha were forested land and 610 ha were agricultural land. Eighty percent of that total disturbance was from conventional natural gas and oil development.

Landscape consequences of natural gas extraction in Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Huntingdon, and Luzerne counties, Pennsylvania, 2004-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E.T.; Milheim, L.E.; Roig-Silva, C.M.; Winters, S.G.

2014-01-01

Increased demands for cleaner burning energy, coupled with the relatively recent technological advances in accessing unconventional hydrocarbon-rich geologic formations, have led to an intense effort to find and extract natural gas from various underground sources around the country. One of these sources, the Marcellus Shale, located in the Allegheny Plateau, is currently undergoing extensive drilling and production. The technology used to extract gas in the Marcellus Shale is known as hydraulic fracturing and has garnered much attention because of its use of large amounts of fresh water, its use of proprietary fluids for the hydraulic-fracturing process, its potential to release contaminants into the environment, and its potential effect on water resources. Nonetheless, development of natural gas extraction wells in the Marcellus Shale is only part of the overall natural gas story in this area of Pennsylvania. Conventional natural gas wells, which sometimes use the same technique, are commonly located in the same general area as the Marcellus Shale and are frequently developed in clusters across the landscape. The combined effects of these two natural gas extraction methods create potentially serious patterns of disturbance on the landscape. This document quantifies the landscape changes and consequences of natural gas extraction for Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Huntingdon, and Luzerne Counties in Pennsylvania between 2004 and 2010. Patterns of landscape disturbance related to natural gas extraction activities were collected and digitized using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery for 2004, 2005/2006, 2008, and 2010. The disturbance patterns were then used to measure changes in land cover and land use using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of 2001. A series of landscape metrics is also used to quantify these changes and is included in this publication. In this region, natural gas development disturbed approximately 943 hectares of land in which forest sustained three times the amount of disturbance as agricultural land. One-quarter of that total disturbance was from Marcellus natural gas development.

Older Adults' Current and Potential Uses of Information Technologies in a Changing World: A Theoretical Perspective.

PubMed

Backonja, Uba; Hall, Amanda K; Thielke, Stephen

2014-12-01

Technologies have become a major force in people's lives. They change how people interact with the environment, even as the environment changes. We propose that technology use in the setting of changing environments is motivated by essential needs and tensions experienced by the individual. We apply three developmental and behavioral theories (Erikson's stages of psychosocial development, Maslow's hierarchy of needs, and Bronfenbrenner's ecological model) to explain technology-related behaviors among older adults. We consider how technology use has addressed and can address major ecological changes, in three areas: health promotion, natural disasters, and disparities. We propose that considering these theories can help researchers and developers ensure that technologies will help promote a healthier world for older adults. © The Author(s) 2015.

Older Adults’ Current and Potential Uses of Information Technologies in a Changing World: A Theoretical Perspective

PubMed Central

Backonja, Uba; Hall, Amanda K.; Thielke, Stephen

2015-01-01

Technologies have become a major force in people’s lives. They change how people interact with the environment, even as the environment changes. We propose that technology use in the setting of changing environments is motivated by essential needs and tensions experienced by the individual. We apply three developmental and behavioral theories (Erikson’s stages of psychosocial development, Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, and Bronfenbrenner’s ecological model) to explain technology-related behaviors among older adults. We consider how technology use has addressed and can address major ecological changes, in three areas: health promotion, natural disasters, and disparities. We propose that considering these theories can help researchers and developers ensure that technologies will help promote a healthier world for older adults. PMID:26215298

Low genetic diversity in pygmy blue whales is due to climate-induced diversification rather than anthropogenic impacts.

PubMed

Attard, Catherine R M; Beheregaray, Luciano B; Jenner, K Curt S; Gill, Peter C; Jenner, Micheline-Nicole M; Morrice, Margaret G; Teske, Peter R; Möller, Luciana M

2015-05-01

Unusually low genetic diversity can be a warning of an urgent need to mitigate causative anthropogenic activities. However, current low levels of genetic diversity in a population could also be due to natural historical events, including recent evolutionary divergence, or long-term persistence at a small population size. Here, we determine whether the relatively low genetic diversity of pygmy blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda) in Australia is due to natural causes or overexploitation. We apply recently developed analytical approaches in the largest genetic dataset ever compiled to study blue whales (297 samples collected after whaling and representing lineages from Australia, Antarctica and Chile). We find that low levels of genetic diversity in Australia are due to a natural founder event from Antarctic blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia) that occurred around the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by evolutionary divergence. Historical climate change has therefore driven the evolution of blue whales into genetically, phenotypically and behaviourally distinct lineages that will likely be influenced by future climate change. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M.; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R.; Sharp, Anthony K.; Martin, Karl J.

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress.

PubMed

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R; Sharp, Anthony K; Martin, Karl J

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Prenatal Famine and Adult Health

PubMed Central

Lumey, L.H.; Stein, Aryeh D.; Susser, Ezra

2013-01-01

We review human studies on the relation between acute exposures to prenatal famine and adult physical and mental health. These studies are observational and include exposures to a famine environment by natural or man-made causes or, more commonly, from the interplay between natural and human factors. These natural experiments provide an opportunity to examine long-term outcomes after famine exposures by comparing exposed and nonexposed individuals. The studies show consistent associations between prenatal famine and adult body size, diabetes, and schizophrenia. For other measures of adult health, findings are less robust. A relation between prenatal famine and some reported epigenetic changes may provide a potential mechanism to explain specific associations. Much progress can be made if current separate studies are further analyzed with comparable definitions of exposures and outcomes and using common analytic strategies. PMID:21219171

Micro-organisms in latex and natural rubber coagula of Hevea brasiliensis and their impact on rubber composition, structure and properties.

PubMed

Salomez, M; Subileau, M; Intapun, J; Bonfils, F; Sainte-Beuve, J; Vaysse, L; Dubreucq, E

2014-10-01

Natural rubber, produced by coagulation of the latex from the tree Hevea brasiliensis, is an important biopolymer used in many applications for its outstanding properties. Besides polyisoprene, latex is rich in many nonisoprene components such as carbohydrates, proteins and lipids and thereby constitutes a favourable medium for the development of micro-organisms. The fresh rubber coagula obtained by latex coagulation are not immediately processed, allowing the development of various microbial communities. The time period between tree tapping and coagula processing is called maturation, during which an evolution of the properties of the corresponding dry natural rubber occurs. This evolution is partly related to the activity of micro-organisms and to the modification of the biochemical composition. This review synthesizes the current knowledge on microbial populations in latex and natural rubber coagula of H. brasiliensis and the changes they induce on the biochemistry and technical properties of natural rubber during maturation. © 2014 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Electromagnetic pulsed thermography for natural cracks inspection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yunlai; Tian, Gui Yun; Wang, Ping; Wang, Haitao; Gao, Bin; Woo, Wai Lok; Li, Kongjing

2017-02-01

Emerging integrated sensing and monitoring of material degradation and cracks are increasingly required for characterizing the structural integrity and safety of infrastructure. However, most conventional nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods are based on single modality sensing which is not adequate to evaluate structural integrity and natural cracks. This paper proposed electromagnetic pulsed thermography for fast and comprehensive defect characterization. It hybrids multiple physical phenomena i.e. magnetic flux leakage, induced eddy current and induction heating linking to physics as well as signal processing algorithms to provide abundant information of material properties and defects. New features are proposed using 1st derivation that reflects multiphysics spatial and temporal behaviors to enhance the detection of cracks with different orientations. Promising results that robust to lift-off changes and invariant features for artificial and natural cracks detection have been demonstrated that the proposed method significantly improves defect detectability. It opens up multiphysics sensing and integrated NDE with potential impact for natural understanding and better quantitative evaluation of natural cracks including stress corrosion crack (SCC) and rolling contact fatigue (RCF).

Nature as a network of morphological infocomputational processes for cognitive agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodig-Crnkovic, Gordana

2017-01-01

This paper presents a view of nature as a network of infocomputational agents organized in a dynamical hierarchy of levels. It provides a framework for unification of currently disparate understandings of natural, formal, technical, behavioral and social phenomena based on information as a structure, differences in one system that cause the differences in another system, and computation as its dynamics, i.e. physical process of morphological change in the informational structure. We address some of the frequent misunderstandings regarding the natural/morphological computational models and their relationships to physical systems, especially cognitive systems such as living beings. Natural morphological infocomputation as a conceptual framework necessitates generalization of models of computation beyond the traditional Turing machine model presenting symbol manipulation, and requires agent-based concurrent resource-sensitive models of computation in order to be able to cover the whole range of phenomena from physics to cognition. The central role of agency, particularly material vs. cognitive agency is highlighted.

Changes in DNA methylation fingerprint of Quercus ilex trees in response to experimental field drought simulating projected climate change.

PubMed

Rico, L; Ogaya, R; Barbeta, A; Peñuelas, J

2014-03-01

Rapid genetic changes in plants have been reported in response to current climate change. We assessed the capacity of trees in a natural forest to produce rapid acclimation responses based on epigenetic modifications. We analysed natural populations of Quercus ilex, the dominant tree species of Mediterranean forests, using the methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) technique to assess patterns and levels of methylation in individuals from unstressed forest plots and from plots experimentally exposed to drought for 12 years at levels projected for the coming decades. The percentage of hypermethylated loci increased, and the percentage of fully methylated loci clearly decreased in plants exposed to drought. Multivariate analyses exploring the status of methylation at MSAP loci also showed clear differentiation depending on stress. The PCA scores for the MSAP profiles clearly separated the genetic from the epigenetic structure, and also significantly separated the samples within each group in response to drought. Changes in DNA methylation highlight the large capacity of plants to rapidly acclimate to changing environmental conditions, including trees with long life spans, and our results demonstrate those changes. These changes, although unable to prevent the decreased growth and higher mortality associated with this experimental drought, occurred together with a dampening in such decreases as the long-term treatment progressed. © 2013 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Effects of Disasters on Smoking and Relapse: An Exploratory Study of Hurricane Katrina Victims

PubMed Central

Lanctot, Jennifer Q.; Stockton, Michelle B.; Mzayek, Fawaz; Read, Mary; McDevitt-Murphy, Meghan; Ward, Kenneth

2016-01-01

Background Psychosocial stress maintains cigarette use and precipitates relapse, but little is known about how natural disasters in particular affect smoking. Purpose To determine the feasibility of recruiting victims soon after a natural disaster for a survey study, and to assess the types and determinants of changes in smoking behavior resulting from exposure to the disaster. Methods A convenience sample of 35 Hurricane Katrina refugees who had smoked more than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime were surveyed one month after the storm to evaluate changes in smoking behavior. Results Among a small sample of former smokers, more than half relapsed after Katrina, citing stress, urge, and sadness. Among current smokers, 52% increased their smoking after Katrina by more than half a pack per day on average. Most individuals who increased their smoking or relapsed expressed interest in receiving cessation assistance within the next month. Discussion Stress-related increases in smoking and relapse may be common after a natural disaster. Translation to Health Education Practice Health education professionals have an important role to play in responding to changes in tobacco use in the aftermath of disasters. Educational interventions to discourage tobacco use as a coping strategy may be especially warranted given the high level of interest expressed in smoking cessation. PMID:28496561

Quantifying Anthropogenic Stress on Groundwater Resources.

PubMed

Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Alizadeh, Amin; Mousavi Baygi, Mohammad; R Moftakhari, Hamed; Mirchi, Ali; Anjileli, Hassan; Madani, Kaveh

2017-10-10

This study explores a general framework for quantifying anthropogenic influences on groundwater budget based on normalized human outflow (h out ) and inflow (h in ). The framework is useful for sustainability assessment of groundwater systems and allows investigating the effects of different human water abstraction scenarios on the overall aquifer regime (e.g., depleted, natural flow-dominated, and human flow-dominated). We apply this approach to selected regions in the USA, Germany and Iran to evaluate the current aquifer regime. We subsequently present two scenarios of changes in human water withdrawals and return flow to the system (individually and combined). Results show that approximately one-third of the selected aquifers in the USA, and half of the selected aquifers in Iran are dominated by human activities, while the selected aquifers in Germany are natural flow-dominated. The scenario analysis results also show that reduced human withdrawals could help with regime change in some aquifers. For instance, in two of the selected USA aquifers, a decrease in anthropogenic influences by ~20% may change the condition of depleted regime to natural flow-dominated regime. We specifically highlight a trending threat to the sustainability of groundwater in northwest Iran and California, and the need for more careful assessment and monitoring practices as well as strict regulations to mitigate the negative impacts of groundwater overexploitation.

[Changes of wetland landscape pattern in Dayang River Estuary based on high-resolution remote sensing image].

PubMed

Wu, Tao; Zhao, Dong-zhi; Zhang, Feng-shou; Wei, Bao-quan

2011-07-01

Based on the comprehensive consideration of the high resolution characteristics of remote sensing data and the current situation of land cover and land use in Dayang River Estuary wetland, a classification system with different resolutions of wetland landscape in the Estuary was established. The landscape pattern indices and landscape transition matrix were calculated by using the high resolution remote sensing data, and the dynamic changes of the landscape pattern from 1984 to 2008 were analyzed. In the study period, the wetland landscape components changed drastically. Wetland landscape transferred from natural wetland into artificial wetland, and wetland core regional area decreased. Natural wetland's largest patch area index descended, and the fragmentation degree ascended; while artificial wetland area expanded, its patch number decreased, polymerization degree increased, and the maximum patch area index had an obvious increasing trend. Increasing human activities, embankment construction, and reclamation for aquaculture were the main causes for the decrease of wetland area and the degradation of the ecological functions of Dayang River Estuary. To constitute long-term scientific and reasonable development plan, establish wetland nature reserves, protect riverway, draft strict inspective regimes for aquaculture reclamation, and energetically develop resource-based tourism industry would be the main strategies for the protection of the estuarine wetland.

One Size Does Not Fit All: Taking Diversity, Culture and Context Seriously

PubMed Central

Alegria, Margarita; Atkins, Marc; Farmer, Elizabeth; Slaton, Elaine; Stelk, Wayne

2010-01-01

Evidence suggests that the current mental health system is failing in the provision of quality mental health care for diverse children and families. This paper discusses one critical domain missing to improve care: serious attention given to diversity, culture, and context. It discusses what we mean by understanding culture and context at the individual, family, organizational, and societal level. Focusing on key predictors of children’s adjustment in natural contexts would increase attention to building community and family capacities that strengthen children’s mental health. To conclude, we suggest changes in organizational culture to build natural supports to enhance children's mental health. PMID:20165910

Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory

2017-01-01

Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.

Flooding disturbances increase resource availability and productivity but reduce stability in diverse plant communities.

PubMed

Wright, Alexandra J; Ebeling, Anne; de Kroon, Hans; Roscher, Christiane; Weigelt, Alexandra; Buchmann, Nina; Buchmann, Tina; Fischer, Christine; Hacker, Nina; Hildebrandt, Anke; Leimer, Sophia; Mommer, Liesje; Oelmann, Yvonne; Scheu, Stefan; Steinauer, Katja; Strecker, Tanja; Weisser, Wolfgang; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Eisenhauer, Nico

2015-01-20

The natural world is increasingly defined by change. Within the next 100 years, rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will continue to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. Simultaneously, human activities are reducing global biodiversity, with current extinction rates at ~1,000 × what they were before human domination of Earth's ecosystems. The co-occurrence of these trends may be of particular concern, as greater biological diversity could help ecosystems resist change during large perturbations. We use data from a 200-year flood event to show that when a disturbance is associated with an increase in resource availability, the opposite may occur. Flooding was associated with increases in productivity and decreases in stability, particularly in the highest diversity communities. Our results undermine the utility of the biodiversity-stability hypothesis during a large number of disturbances where resource availability increases. We propose a conceptual framework that can be widely applied during natural disturbances.

Degeneracy allows for both apparent homogeneity and diversification in populations.

PubMed

Whitacre, James M; Atamas, Sergei P

2012-10-01

Trait diversity - the substrate for natural selection - is necessary for adaptation through selection, particularly in populations faced with environmental changes that diminish population fitness. In habitats that remain unchanged for many generations, stabilizing selection maximizes exploitation of resources by reducing trait diversity to a narrow optimal range. One might expect that such ostensibly homogeneous populations would have a reduced potential for heritable adaptive responses when faced with fitness-reducing environmental changes. However, field studies have documented populations that, even after long periods of evolutionary stasis, can still rapidly evolve in response to changed environmental conditions. We argue that degeneracy, the ability of diverse population elements to function similarly, can satisfy both the current need to maximize fitness and the future need for diversity. Degenerate ensembles appear functionally redundant in certain environmental contexts and functionally diverse in others. We propose that genetic variation not contributing to the observed range of phenotypes in a current population, also known as cryptic genetic variation (CGV), is a specific case of degeneracy. We argue that CGV, which gradually accumulates in static populations in stable environments, reveals hidden trait differences when environments change. By allowing CGV accumulation, static populations prepare themselves for future rapid adaptations to environmental novelty. A greater appreciation of degeneracy's role in resolving the inherent tension between current stabilizing selection and future directional selection has implications in conservation biology and may be applied in social and technological systems to maximize current performance while strengthening the potential for future changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Creating a Future for Occupational Health.

PubMed

Peckham, Trevor K; Baker, Marissa G; Camp, Janice E; Kaufman, Joel D; Seixas, Noah S

2017-01-01

Economic, social, technical, and political drivers are fundamentally changing the nature of work and work environments, with profound implications for the field of occupational health. Nevertheless, researchers and practitioners entering the field are largely being trained to assess and control exposures using approaches developed under old models of work and risks. A speaker series and symposium were organized to broadly explore current challenges and future directions for the occupational health field. Broad themes identified throughout these discussions are characterized and discussed to highlight important future directions of occupational health. Despite the relatively diverse group of presenters and topics addressed, some important cross-cutting themes emerged. Changes in work organization and the resulting insecurity and precarious employment arrangements change the nature of risk to a large fraction of the workforce. Workforce demographics are changing, and economic disparities among working groups are growing. Globalization exacerbates the 'race to the bottom' for cheap labor, poor regulatory oversight, and limited labor rights. Largely, as a result of these phenomena, the historical distinction between work and non-work exposures has become largely artificial and less useful in understanding risks and developing effective public health intervention models. Additional changes related to climate change, governmental and regulatory limitations, and inadequate surveillance systems challenge and frustrate occupational health progress, while new biomedical and information technologies expand the opportunities for understanding and intervening to improve worker health. The ideas and evidences discussed during this project suggest that occupational health training, professional practice, and research evolve towards a more holistic, public health-oriented model of worker health. This will require engagement with a wide network of stakeholders. Research and training portfolios need to be broadened to better align with the current realities of work and health and to prepare practitioners for the changing array of occupational health challenges. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Spatial and topographic trends in forest expansion and biomass change, from regional to local scales.

PubMed

Buma, Brian; Barrett, Tara M

2015-09-01

Natural forest growth and expansion are important carbon sequestration processes globally. Climate change is likely to increase forest growth in some regions via CO2 fertilization, increased temperatures, and altered precipitation; however, altered disturbance regimes and climate stress (e.g. drought) will act to reduce carbon stocks in forests as well. Observations of asynchrony in forest change is useful in determining current trends in forest carbon stocks, both in terms of forest density (e.g. Mg ha(-1) ) and spatially (extent and location). Monitoring change in natural (unmanaged) areas is particularly useful, as while afforestation and recovery from historic land use are currently large carbon sinks, the long-term viability of those sinks depends on climate change and disturbance dynamics at their particular location. We utilize a large, unmanaged biome (>135 000 km(2) ) which spans a broad latitudinal gradient to explore how variation in location affects forest density and spatial patterning: the forests of the North American temperate rainforests in Alaska, which store >2.8 Pg C in biomass and soil, equivalent to >8% of the C in contiguous US forests. We demonstrate that the regional biome is shifting; gains exceed losses and are located in different spatio-topographic contexts. Forest gains are concentrated on northerly aspects, lower elevations, and higher latitudes, especially in sheltered areas, whereas loss is skewed toward southerly aspects and lower latitudes. Repeat plot-scale biomass data (n = 759) indicate that within-forest biomass gains outpace losses (live trees >12.7 cm diameter, 986 Gg yr(-1) ) on gentler slopes and in higher latitudes. This work demonstrates that while temperate rainforest dynamics occur at fine spatial scales (<1000 m(2) ), the net result of thousands of individual events is regionally patterned change. Correlations between the disturbance/establishment imbalance and biomass accumulation suggest the potential for relatively rapid biome shifts and biomass changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeigler, Sara; Catlin, Daniel H.; Bomberger Brown, M.; Fraser, J.D.; Dinan, Lauren R.; Hunt, Kelsi L.; Jorgensen, Joel G.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

2017-01-01

Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the persistence of metapopulations of early-successional species under both suppressed disturbance regimes and disturbance regimes where climate change has further altered disturbance frequency or scope.

Lab Experiments Probe Interactions Between Dilute Pyroclastic Density Currents and 3D Barriers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fauria, K.; Andrews, B. J.; Manga, M.

2014-12-01

We conducted scaled laboratory experiments of unconfined dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) to examine interactions between three - dimensional obstacles and dilute PDCs. While it is known that PDCs can surmount barriers by converting kinetic energy into potential energy, the signature of topography on PDC dynamics is unclear. To examine the interplay between PDCs and topography, we turbulently suspended heated and ambient-temperature 20 μm talc powder in air within an 8.5 x 6.1 x 2.6 m tank. Experimental parameters (Froude number, densimetric and thermal Richardson number, particle Stokes and Settling numbers) were scaled such that the experimental currents were dynamically similar to natural PCS. The Reynolds number, however, is much smaller than in natural currents, but still large enough for the flows to be turbulent. We placed cylindrical and ridge-like objects in the path of the currents, illuminated the currents with orthogonal laser sheets, and recorded each experiment with high definition cameras. We observed currents surmounting ridge-like barriers (barrier height = current height). Slanted ridges redirected the currents upward and parallel to the upstream face of the ridges (~45° from horizontal). Down stream of the slanted ridges, ambient-temperature currents reattached to the floor. By comparison, hot currents reversed buoyancy and lifted off. These observations suggest that obstacles enhance air entrainment, a process key to affecting runout distance and the depletion of fine particles in ignimbrites. Moreover, we observed vortex shedding in the wake of cylinders. Our experiments demonstrate that barriers of various shapes affect PDC dynamics and can shorten PDC runout distances. Understanding the effects of topography on PDCs is required for interpreting many deposits because processes such as vortex shedding and topographically-induced changes in turbulent length scales and entrainment likely leave depositional signatures.

Climate forcings in the industrial era.

PubMed

Hansen, J E; Sato, M; Lacis, A; Ruedy, R; Tegen, I; Matthews, E

1998-10-27

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

1998-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is-that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Climate forcings in the Industrial era

PubMed Central

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

1998-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular “business as usual” or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue. PMID:9788985

Climate Simulations of Past, Present and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

1999-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Climate Forcing in the Industrial Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

1998-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Perspective: Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

1998-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Land Configuration Changes Using an Integrated Hydrologic Model at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prucha, R. H.; Dayton, C. S.; Hawley, C. M.

2002-12-01

The Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in Golden, Colorado, a former Department of Energy nuclear weapons manufacturing facility, is currently undergoing closure. The natural semi-arid interaction between surface and subsurface flow at RFETS is complex and complicated by the industrial modifications to the flow system. Using a substantial site data set, a distributed parameter, fully-integrated hydrologic model was developed to assess the hydrologic impact of different hypothetical site closure configurations on the current flow system and to better understand the integrated hydrologic behavior of the system. An integrated model with this level of detail has not been previously developed in a semi-arid area, and a unique, but comprehensive, approach was required to calibrate and validate the model. Several hypothetical scenarios were developed to simulate hydrologic effects of modifying different aspects of the site. For example, some of the simulated modifications included regrading the current land surface, changing the existing surface channel network, removing subsurface trenches and gravity drain flow systems, installing a slurry wall and geotechnical cover, changing the current vegetative cover, and converting existing buildings and pavement to permeable soil areas. The integrated flow model was developed using a rigorous physically-based code so that realistic design parameters can simulate these changes. This code also permitted evaluation of changes to complex integrated hydrologic system responses that included channelized and overland flow, pond levels, unsaturated zone storage, groundwater heads and flow directions, and integrated water balances for key areas. Results generally show that channel flow offsite decreases substantially for different scenarios, while groundwater heads generally increase within the reconfigured industrial area most of which is then discharged as evapotranspiration. These changes have significant implications to site closure and operation.

Age-related changes to the production of linguistic prosody

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Daniel R.

The production of speech prosody (the rhythm, pausing, and intonation associated with natural speech) is critical to effective communication. The current study investigated the impact of age-related changes to physiology and cognition in relation to the production of two types of linguistic prosody: lexical stress and the disambiguation of syntactically ambiguous utterances. Analyses of the acoustic correlates of stress: speech intensity (or sound-pressure level; SPL), fundamental frequency (F0), key word/phrase duration, and pause duration revealed that both young and older adults effectively use these acoustic features to signal linguistic prosody, although the relative weighting of cues differed by group. Differences in F0 were attributed to age-related physiological changes in the laryngeal subsystem, while group differences in duration measures were attributed to relative task complexity and the cognitive-linguistic load of these respective tasks. The current study provides normative acoustic data for older adults which informs interpretation of clinical findings as well as research pertaining to dysprosody as the result of disease processes.

Evolutionary rescue in vertebrates: evidence, applications and uncertainty

PubMed Central

Vander Wal, E.; Garant, D.; Festa-Bianchet, M.; Pelletier, F.

2013-01-01

The current rapid rate of human-driven environmental change presents wild populations with novel conditions and stresses. Theory and experimental evidence for evolutionary rescue present a promising case for species facing environmental change persisting via adaptation. Here, we assess the potential for evolutionary rescue in wild vertebrates. Available information on evolutionary rescue was rare and restricted to abundant and highly fecund species that faced severe intentional anthropogenic selective pressures. However, examples from adaptive tracking in common species and genetic rescues in species of conservation concern provide convincing evidence in favour of the mechanisms of evolutionary rescue. We conclude that low population size, long generation times and limited genetic variability will result in evolutionary rescue occurring rarely for endangered species without intervention. Owing to the risks presented by current environmental change and the possibility of evolutionary rescue in nature, we suggest means to study evolutionary rescue by mapping genotype → phenotype → demography → fitness relationships, and priorities for applying evolutionary rescue to wild populations. PMID:23209171

Conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in southwestern Kansas: from the wells to people, a holistic coupled natural-human model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aistrup, Joseph A.; Bulatewicz, Tom; Kulcsar, Laszlo J.; Peterson, Jeffrey M.; Welch, Stephen M.; Steward, David R.

2017-12-01

The impact of water policy on conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in Groundwater Management District 3 (GMD3) in southwestern Kansas is analyzed using a system-level theoretical approach integrating agricultural water and land use patterns, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In so doing, we (1) model the current hyper-extractive coupled natural-human (CNH) system, (2) forecast outcomes of policy scenarios transitioning the current groundwater-based economic system toward more sustainable paths for the social, economic, and natural components of the integrated system, and (3) develop public policy options for enhanced conservation while minimizing the economic costs for the region's communities. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities. However, we also find that the expanded presence of irrigated acreage reduces the impact of an increasingly drier climate on the region's economy and creates greater long-term stability in the farming sector along with increased employment and population in the region. On the negative side, conservation lowers the net present value of farmers' current investments and there is not a policy scenario that achieves a truly sustainable solution as defined by Peter H. Gleick. This study reinforces the salience of interdisciplinary linked CNH models to provide policy prescriptions to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues.

The anthropogenic nature of present-day low energy rivers in western France and implications for current restoration projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lespez, L.; Viel, V.; Rollet, A. J.; Delahaye, D.

2015-12-01

As in other European countries, western France has seen an increase in river restoration projects. In this paper, we examine the restoration goals, methods and objectives with respect to the long-term trajectory and understanding of the contemporary dynamics of the small low energy rivers typical of the lowlands of Western Europe. The exhaustive geomorphological, paleoenvironmental and historical research conducted in the Seulles river basin (Normandy) provides very accurate documentation of the nature and place of the different legacies in the fluvial systems we have inherited. The sedimentation rate in the Seulles valley bottom has multiplied by a factor of 20 since the end of the Bronze Age and has generated dramatic changes in fluvial forms. Hydraulic control of the rivers and valley bottoms drainage throughout the last millennium has channelized rivers within these deposits. The single meandering channel which characterizes this river today is the legacy of the delayed and complex effects of long term exploitation of the river basin and the fluvial system. Bring to light that the "naturalness" of the restored rivers might be questioned. Our research emphasizes the gap between the poor knowledge of the functioning of these rivers and the concrete objectives of the restoration works undertaken, including dam and weir removal. Account of the long-term history of fluvial systems is required, not only to produce a pedagogic history of the "river degradation" but more fundamentally (i) to situate the current functioning of the fluvial system in a trajectory to try to identify thresholds and anticipate the potential turning points in a context of climate and land use change, (ii) to understand the role of morphosedimentary legacies on the current dynamics, (iii) to open the discussion on reference functioning or expected states and (iv) to open discussion on the sustainability of ecological restoration. To conclude, we point out the necessity to take into account the hybrid nature of low energy rivers in rural environments and to develop specific evaluation protocols which would include both biophysical processes and usual human activities which could be a way to share the evaluation and overcome conflicts between socioeconomic needs and environmental issues.

Unsupervised Multi-Scale Change Detection from SAR Imagery for Monitoring Natural and Anthropogenic Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajadi, Olaniyi A.

Radar remote sensing can play a critical role in operational monitoring of natural and anthropogenic disasters. Despite its all-weather capabilities, and its high performance in mapping, and monitoring of change, the application of radar remote sensing in operational monitoring activities has been limited. This has largely been due to: (1) the historically high costs associated with obtaining radar data; (2) slow data processing, and delivery procedures; and (3) the limited temporal sampling that was provided by spaceborne radar-based satellites. Recent advances in the capabilities of spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors have developed an environment that now allows for SAR to make significant contributions to disaster monitoring. New SAR processing strategies that can take full advantage of these new sensor capabilities are currently being developed. Hence, with this PhD dissertation, I aim to: (i) investigate unsupervised change detection techniques that can reliably extract signatures from time series of SAR images, and provide the necessary flexibility for application to a variety of natural, and anthropogenic hazard situations; (ii) investigate effective methods to reduce the effects of speckle and other noise on change detection performance; (iii) automate change detection algorithms using probabilistic Bayesian inferencing; and (iv) ensure that the developed technology is applicable to current, and future SAR sensors to maximize temporal sampling of a hazardous event. This is achieved by developing new algorithms that rely on image amplitude information only, the sole image parameter that is available for every single SAR acquisition.. The motivation and implementation of the change detection concept are described in detail in Chapter 3. In the same chapter, I demonstrated the technique's performance using synthetic data as well as a real-data application to map wildfire progression. I applied Radiometric Terrain Correction (RTC) to the data to increase the sampling frequency, while the developed multiscale-driven approach reliably identified changes embedded in largely stationary background scenes. With this technique, I was able to identify the extent of burn scars with high accuracy. I further applied the application of the change detection technology to oil spill mapping. The analysis highlights that the approach described in Chapter 3 can be applied to this drastically different change detection problem with only little modification. While the core of the change detection technique remained unchanged, I made modifications to the pre-processing step to enable change detection from scenes of continuously varying background. I introduced the Lipschitz regularity (LR) transformation as a technique to normalize the typically dynamic ocean surface, facilitating high performance oil spill detection independent of environmental conditions during image acquisition. For instance, I showed that LR processing reduces the sensitivity of change detection performance to variations in surface winds, which is a known limitation in oil spill detection from SAR. Finally, I applied the change detection technique to aufeis flood mapping along the Sagavanirktok River. Due to the complex nature of aufeis flooded areas, I substituted the resolution-preserving speckle filter used in Chapter 3 with curvelet filters. In addition to validating the performance of the change detection results, I also provide evidence of the wealth of information that can be extracted about aufeis flooding events once a time series of change detection information was extracted from SAR imagery. A summary of the developed change detection techniques is conducted and suggested future work is presented in Chapter 6.

Market power and the sale of Ontario residential natural gas: An institutional analysis and a laboratory experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloemhof, Barbara Lynn

2005-11-01

The Ontario residential natural gas market underwent a significant institutional change in 1986, after the federal government decontrolled natural gas prices. Currently, consumers may sign up for fixed-cost natural gas from a broker, or they may continue to be served by the regulated distribution company. This thesis examines the economic effects on consumers of the institutional change, and particularly whether or not market power was enhanced by the change. In the thesis, I first present the industrial organization of the residential natural gas sector, and explain the institutional evolution using an institutional economic approach. I then construct a model of the market environment, with sellers acting as middlemen in a well-defined Bertrand oligopoly setting with no production constraints and single-unit consumer demands. In this model, the only Nash equilibrium in the one-period game is the joint profit maximizing price, and its likelihood of obtaining depends on the nature of the cost of signing up new customers. I then take a version of this model into the laboratory with human subject sellers and simulated buyers and run six replications each of a balanced treatment design under a unique information mechanism that parallels individual customer canvassing used by sellers in the naturally-occurring market. Treatment variables are: number of sellers, number of simulated at-cost sellers present, and presence of input cost uncertainty for sellers. I find that adding any seller to the market has about the same impact on market price, irrespective of whether it is a human subject or a simulated at-cost seller. Although increasing the number of sellers does decrease the market price somewhat, it does not bring about the competitive outcome predicted by the benchmark microeconomic model. This research contributes to the literature on policy making and energy market design, as well as to experimental methodology aimed at policy evaluation.

Natural capital and ecosystem services informing decisions: From promise to practice

PubMed Central

Guerry, Anne D.; Polasky, Stephen; Lubchenco, Jane; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Daily, Gretchen C.; Griffin, Robert; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Bateman, Ian J.; Duraiappah, Anantha; Elmqvist, Thomas; Feldman, Marcus W.; Folke, Carl; Hoekstra, Jon; Kareiva, Peter M.; Keeler, Bonnie L.; Li, Shuzhuo; McKenzie, Emily; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Reyers, Belinda; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Rockström, Johan; Tallis, Heather; Vira, Bhaskar

2015-01-01

The central challenge of the 21st century is to develop economic, social, and governance systems capable of ending poverty and achieving sustainable levels of population and consumption while securing the life-support systems underpinning current and future human well-being. Essential to meeting this challenge is the incorporation of natural capital and the ecosystem services it provides into decision-making. We explore progress and crucial gaps at this frontier, reflecting upon the 10 y since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We focus on three key dimensions of progress and ongoing challenges: raising awareness of the interdependence of ecosystems and human well-being, advancing the fundamental interdisciplinary science of ecosystem services, and implementing this science in decisions to restore natural capital and use it sustainably. Awareness of human dependence on nature is at an all-time high, the science of ecosystem services is rapidly advancing, and talk of natural capital is now common from governments to corporate boardrooms. However, successful implementation is still in early stages. We explore why ecosystem service information has yet to fundamentally change decision-making and suggest a path forward that emphasizes: (i) developing solid evidence linking decisions to impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services, and then to human well-being; (ii) working closely with leaders in government, business, and civil society to develop the knowledge, tools, and practices necessary to integrate natural capital and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making; and (iii) reforming institutions to change policy and practices to better align private short-term goals with societal long-term goals. PMID:26082539

Natural capital and ecosystem services informing decisions: From promise to practice.

PubMed

Guerry, Anne D; Polasky, Stephen; Lubchenco, Jane; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Daily, Gretchen C; Griffin, Robert; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Bateman, Ian J; Duraiappah, Anantha; Elmqvist, Thomas; Feldman, Marcus W; Folke, Carl; Hoekstra, Jon; Kareiva, Peter M; Keeler, Bonnie L; Li, Shuzhuo; McKenzie, Emily; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Reyers, Belinda; Ricketts, Taylor H; Rockström, Johan; Tallis, Heather; Vira, Bhaskar

2015-06-16

The central challenge of the 21st century is to develop economic, social, and governance systems capable of ending poverty and achieving sustainable levels of population and consumption while securing the life-support systems underpinning current and future human well-being. Essential to meeting this challenge is the incorporation of natural capital and the ecosystem services it provides into decision-making. We explore progress and crucial gaps at this frontier, reflecting upon the 10 y since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We focus on three key dimensions of progress and ongoing challenges: raising awareness of the interdependence of ecosystems and human well-being, advancing the fundamental interdisciplinary science of ecosystem services, and implementing this science in decisions to restore natural capital and use it sustainably. Awareness of human dependence on nature is at an all-time high, the science of ecosystem services is rapidly advancing, and talk of natural capital is now common from governments to corporate boardrooms. However, successful implementation is still in early stages. We explore why ecosystem service information has yet to fundamentally change decision-making and suggest a path forward that emphasizes: (i) developing solid evidence linking decisions to impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services, and then to human well-being; (ii) working closely with leaders in government, business, and civil society to develop the knowledge, tools, and practices necessary to integrate natural capital and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making; and (iii) reforming institutions to change policy and practices to better align private short-term goals with societal long-term goals.

The Life Sciences program at the NASA Ames Research Center - An overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vernikos-Danellis, Joan; Sharp, Joseph C.

1989-01-01

The research projects planned for the Life Sciences program have a goal of answering basic questions concerning the nature of life itself and its evolution in the universe from basic elements, as well as the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. The program also includes studies of the evolution and development of life on the planet earth, and the global changes occurring today that affect life on the earth. The paper describes the simulation models developed to study the effects of space, the flight projects of the program, and the biomedical program, which currently focuses on the physiological changes in the human body that are associated with space flights and the interactions among these changes.

Do changes in sex steroid hormones precede or follow increases in body weight during the menopause transition? Results from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation.

PubMed

Wildman, Rachel P; Tepper, Ping G; Crawford, Sybil; Finkelstein, Joel S; Sutton-Tyrrell, Kim; Thurston, Rebecca C; Santoro, Nanette; Sternfeld, Barbara; Greendale, Gail A

2012-09-01

Whether menopause-related changes in sex steroids account for midlife weight gain in women or whether weight drives changes in sex steroids remains unanswered. The objective of the study was to characterize the potential reciprocal nature of the associations between sex hormones and their binding protein with waist circumference in midlife women. The study included 1528 women (mean age 46 yr) with 9 yr of follow-up across the menopause transition from the observational Study of Women's Health Across the Nation. Waist circumference, SHBG, testosterone, FSH, and estradiol were measured. Current waist circumference predicted future SHBG, testosterone, and FSH but not vice versa. For each SD higher current waist circumference, at the subsequent visit SHBG was lower by 0.04-0.15 SD, testosterone was higher by 0.08-0.13 SD, and log(2) FSH was lower by 0.15-0.26 SD. Estradiol results were distinct from those above, changing direction across the menopause transition. Estradiol and waist circumference were negatively associated in early menopausal transition stages and positively associated in later transition stages (for each SD higher current waist circumference, future estradiol was lower by 0.15 SD in pre- and early perimenopause and higher by 0.38 SD in late peri- and postmenopause; P for interaction <0.001). In addition, they appeared to be reciprocal, with current waist circumference associated with future estradiol and current estradiol associated with future waist circumference. However, associations in the direction of current waist circumference predicting future estradiol levels were of considerably larger magnitude than the reverse. These Study of Women's Health Across the Nation data suggest that the predominant temporal sequence is that weight gain leads to changes in sex steroids rather than vice versa.

[ON SOME DEBATABLE PROBLEMS OF THE NATURAL NIDALITY OF PLAGUE].

PubMed

Verzhutsky, D B; Balakhonov, S V

2016-01-01

The communication substantiates the opinion that the theory of natural nidality of plague; which is based on the fundamental recognition that fleas play a leading role in the transmission and accumulation of the plague pathogen, cannot be disproved or substantially changed on the alternative weakly reasoned assumptions and hypotheses. All its "bottlenecks" are quite understandable when considering the long-term volumetric materials that have been gathered directly in nature and generalized in multiple publications. Plague is an obligate transmissive infection; its, agent is a highly specialized parasite that is completely associated in its vital activity with the only group of the blood-sucking insects--fleas and that is transmitted through periodic colonization of warm-blooded animals for a short time. All other types of plague microbe persistence in nature are either occasional or minor and do not play any significant role in pathogen persistence in the natural foci of this disease. There are no strong grounds for seriously considering the attempts to revise the main points of the theory of natural nidality of plague, which are widely held in current academic publications.

Prospective Changes in Alcohol Use Among Hazardous Drinkers in the Absence of Treatment

PubMed Central

Dearing, Ronda L.; Witkiewitz, Katie; Connors, Gerard J.; Walitzer, Kimberly S.

2012-01-01

Gaining a better understanding of the natural course of hazardous alcohol consumption could inform the development of brief interventions to encourage self-change. In the current study, hazardous drinkers (based on Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score) were recruited using advertisements to participate in a 2-year multi-wave prospective study. Participants (N = 206) provided self-reports every six months during the study, including reports of daily alcohol consumption. The current investigation focuses on self-initiated change in participants’ frequency of heavy drinking days (i.e., ≥ 5/4 drinks per day for men/women), as predicted by a number of demographic (e.g., age) and psychosocial (e.g., guilt-proneness) variables. Latent growth curve models of the change in percent heavy drinking days over the 2-year period provided an excellent fit to the observed data and indicated a significant decline in percent heavy drinking days over time. Reductions in heavy drinking frequency were predicted by younger age and higher guilt-proneness. The identification of these predictors of reductions in heavy drinking frequency provides information to guide future work investigating self-change among hazardous drinkers. PMID:22612252

A University-Level Curriculum in Climate Change for SE Asia and the Asian Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furniss, M. J.; Saah, D. S.; Hines, S. J.; Radel, C. A.; McGroddy, M. E.; Ganz, D. J.

2014-12-01

A university-level curriculum has been developed for the SE Asia and Asia Pacific region and is currently being implemented by 12+ universities; in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea. The curriculum is supported by USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development) through the LEAF program (Lowering Emissions in Asian Forests), under the technical leadership of the U.S. Forest Service. Four modules have been developed: Basic Climate Change, Low-Emissions Land Use Planning, Social and Environmental Soundness, and Carbon Measurement and Monitoring. This presentation will focus on the Basic Climate Change module. This is a survey course that covers a wide range of climate change topics, including causes, effects, and responses. The level of detail in each of the covered topics is calibrated to current issues in the region. The module is elaborated in English and will be translated into the national language of the participating countries. The module is designed to be flexible and can be tailored to both degree and non-degree programs; as well as for trainings for natural resources professionals and policy-makers. Important training topics can be selected as short course trainings for practitioners and leaders working on climate change.

Prospective changes in alcohol use among hazardous drinkers in the absence of treatment.

PubMed

Dearing, Ronda L; Witkiewitz, Katie; Connors, Gerard J; Walitzer, Kimberly S

2013-03-01

Gaining a better understanding of the natural course of hazardous alcohol consumption could inform the development of brief interventions to encourage self-change. In the current study, hazardous drinkers (based on Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score) were recruited using advertisements to participate in a 2-year multiwave prospective study. Participants (n = 206) provided self-reports every six months during the study, including reports of daily alcohol consumption. The current investigation focuses on self-initiated change in participants' frequency of heavy drinking days (i.e., ≥ 5/4 drinks per day for men/women), as predicted by a number of demographic (e.g., age) and psychosocial (e.g., guilt-proneness) variables. Latent growth curve models of the change in percent heavy drinking days over the 2-year period provided an excellent fit to the observed data and indicated a significant decline in percent heavy drinking days over time. Reductions in heavy drinking frequency were predicted by younger age and higher guilt-proneness. The identification of these predictors of reductions in heavy drinking frequency provides information to guide future work investigating self-change among hazardous drinkers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Seasonal activity and morphological changes in martian gullies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dundas, Colin M.; Diniega, Serina; Hansen, Candice J.; Byrne, Shane; McEwen, Alfred S.

2012-01-01

Recent studies of martian dune and non-dune gullies have suggested a seasonal control on present-day gully activity. The timing of current gully activity, especially activity involving the formation or modification of channels (which commonly have been taken as evidence of fluvial processes), has important implications regarding likely gully formation processes and necessary environmental conditions. In this study, we describe the results of frequent meter-scale monitoring of several active gully sites by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The aim is to better assess the scope and nature of current morphological changes and to provide improved constraints on timing of gully activity on both dune and non-dune slopes. Our observations indicate that (1) gully formation on Mars is ongoing today and (2) the most significant morphological changes are strongly associated with seasonal frost and defrosting activity. Observed changes include formation of all major components of typical gully landforms, although we have not observed alcove formation in coherent bedrock. These results reduce the need to invoke recent climate change or present-day groundwater seepage to explain the many martian gullies with pristine appearance.

Nature exposure sufficiency and insufficiency: The benefits of environmental preservation.

PubMed

Reddon, John R; Durante, Salvatore B

2018-01-01

Increasing industrialization, urbanization, and a failure of many world leaders to appreciate the consequences of climate change are deleteriously impacting quality of life as well as diminishing the prospects for long term survival. Economic competitiveness and corporate profitability often pre-empt environmental concerns. The calving of an iceberg in Antarctica and the hurricane activity in the Caribbean during 2017 are unfortunate illustrations of the continuing escalation of environmental issues. We provide historical and current evidence for the importance of Nature Exposure (NE) and introduce the continuum Nature Exposure Sufficiency (NES) and Insufficiency (NEI). Insufficiency includes impoverished environments (e.g., slums and prisons) where nature exposure is very limited. Nature Exposure Sufficiency (NES) is an optimal amount of exposure to nature where many benefits such as reinvigoration can be obtained by everyone. NES also has several benefits for individuals with various health conditions such as arthritis, dementia, or depression. The benefits of NE are not just derivable from parks, forests, and other natural settings. Interiors of buildings and homes can be enhanced with plants and even pictures or objects from nature. Additionally, there is abundant evidence indicating that virtual and artificial environments depicting nature can provide substantial NE and therefore contribute to general wellbeing. Besides the difficulty in achieving cooperation amongst nations, corporations, and other collectives in developing and implementing long range plans to deal with climate change, there is also sometimes an aversion at the individual level whereby people are unwilling to experience nature due to insects and other discomforts. Such individuals are often averse to supplanting the comforts of home, even temporarily, with inadequate facilities that are seemingly less pleasant than their typical dwellings. We propose using the term Nature Exposure Aversion (NEA) to describe such behavior and propose that the aversion is largely due to conditioning. Such behavior may be addressed through desensitization in virtual environments which in turn may contribute to an endorsement of the view that climate change is occurring and must be dealt with. The issues of Nature Exposure Sufficiency and Insufficiency are intertwined with the sustainability of the planet and future planning and efforts to deal with the environment. If the outcome is unfavorable, the descent of civilization will be more rapid than the ascent. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transformational capacity and the influence of place and identity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, N. A.; Park, S. E.; Adger, W. N.; Brown, K.; Howden, S. M.

2012-09-01

Climate change is altering the productivity of natural resources with far-reaching implications for those who depend on them. Resource-dependent industries and communities need the capacity to adapt to a range of climate risks if they are to remain viable. In some instances, the scale and nature of the likely impacts means that transformations of function or structure will be required. Transformations represent a switch to a distinct new system where a different suite of factors become important in the design and implementation of response strategies. There is a critical gap in knowledge on understanding transformational capacity and its influences. On the basis of current knowledge on adaptive capacity we propose four foundations for measuring transformational capacity: (1) how risks and uncertainty are managed, (2) the extent of skills in planning, learning and reorganizing, (3) the level of financial and psychological flexibility to undertake change and (4) the willingness to undertake change. We test the influence of place attachment and occupational identity on transformational capacity using the Australian peanut industry, which is presently assessing significant structural change in response to predicted climatic changes. Survey data from 88% of peanut farmers in Queensland show a strong negative correlation between transformational capacity and both place attachment and occupational attachment, suggesting that whilst these factors may be important positive influences on the capacity to adapt to incremental change, they act as barriers to transformational change.

[Climate change risk of nature reserve and its assessment: A case study of Dalinuoer National Nature Reserve in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region].

PubMed

Zhao, Wei; Shen, Wei Shou; Liu, Hai Yue

2016-12-01

According to the theoretical framework of addressing climate change based on risk mana-gement and the challenge to nature reserve management under climate change, climate change risk of nature reserve was analyzed and defined. Focus on birds and water habitat, grassland habitat, forest habitat, wetland habitat in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk assessment method of nature reserve under climate change was formulated, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were assessed and predicted. The results showed that, during the period from 1997 to 2010, there was significant volatility in dynamic changes of climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region, Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were in status of risk in 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2008, wetland habitat was also in status of risk in 2002 and 2004. Under scenario A, B and C, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region would be more serious in 2020 and 2030, compared with the 2010 level. Climate change risks to different habitats were different significantly, with most serious climate change risk to wetland habitat due to its sensitivity to climate change and rich bird resources. The effect of climate change on nature reserve and related risk would be aggravated by excess utilization of water resource and grassland resource. As climate change risks had appeared in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk management associated with climate change could greatly help to maintain and enhance biodiversity protection function of nature reserves.

Teasing apart the effects of natural and constructed green ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Summer low flows and stream temperature maxima are key drivers affecting the sustainability of fish populations. Thus, it is critical to understand both the natural templates of spatiotemporal variability, how these are shifting due to anthropogenic influences of development and climate change, and how these impacts can be moderated by natural and constructed green infrastructure. Low flow statistics of New England streams have been characterized using a combination of regression equations to describe long-term averages as a function of indicators of hydrologic regime (rain- versus snow-dominated), precipitation, evapotranspiration or temperature, surface water storage, baseflow recession rates, and impervious cover. Difference equations have been constructed to describe interannual variation in low flow as a function of changing air temperature, precipitation, and ocean-atmospheric teleconnection indices. Spatial statistical network models have been applied to explore fine-scale variability of thermal regimes along stream networks in New England as a function of variables describing natural and altered energy inputs, groundwater contributions, and retention time. Low flows exacerbate temperature impacts by reducing thermal inertia of streams to energy inputs. Based on these models, we can construct scenarios of fish habitat suitability using current and projected future climate and the potential for preservation and restoration of historic habitat regimes th

Effects of Natural Disaster Trends: A Case Study for Expanding the Pre-Positioning Network of CARE International

PubMed Central

Bozkurt, Melda; Duran, Serhan

2012-01-01

The increasing number of natural disasters in the last decade necessitates the increase in capacity and agility while delivering humanitarian relief. A common logistics strategy used by humanitarian organizations to respond this need is the establishment of pre-positioning warehouse networks. In the pre-positioning strategy, critical relief inventories are located near the regions at which they will be needed in advance of the onset of the disaster. Therefore, pre-positioning reduces the response time by totally or partially eliminating the procurement phase and increasing the availability of relief items just after the disaster strikes. Once the pre-positioning warehouse locations are decided and warehouses on those locations become operational, they will be in use for a long time. Therefore, the chosen locations should be robust enough to enable extensions, and to cope with changing trends in disaster types, locations and magnitudes. In this study, we analyze the effects of natural disaster trends on the expansion plan of pre-positioning warehouse network implemented by CARE International. We utilize a facility location model to identify the additional warehouse location(s) for relief items to be stored as an extension of the current warehouse network operated by CARE International, considering changing natural disaster trends observed over the past three decades. PMID:23066402

Increasing population and declining biological resources in the context of global change and globalization.

PubMed

Ramakrishnan, P S

2001-11-01

In the context of over-consumption of natural resources in the name of development and rapid industrialization by a small section of the human population that is rapidly growing, the world is currently faced with a variety of environmental uncertainties. 'Global change' covering a whole variety of ecological issues, and 'globalization' in an economic sense, are two major phenomena that are responsible for these uncertainties. There is increasing evidence to suggest that the developing countries more than the developed, particularly the marginalized traditional (those living close to nature and natural resources) societies would be the worst sufferers. In order to cope with this problem in a situation where the traditional societies have to cope with rapidly depleting biodiversity on which they are dependant for their livelihood, there is an urgent need to explore additional pathways for sustainable management of natural resources and societal development. Such pathways should be based on a landscape management strategy, that takes into consideration the rich traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) that these societies have. This is critical because TEK is the connecting link between conservation and sustainable development. This paper explores the possibilities in this direction through a balanced approach to development, that links the 'traditional' with the 'modern', in a location-specific way.

Effects of natural disaster trends: a case study for expanding the pre-positioning network of CARE International.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Melda; Duran, Serhan

2012-08-01

The increasing number of natural disasters in the last decade necessitates the increase in capacity and agility while delivering humanitarian relief. A common logistics strategy used by humanitarian organizations to respond this need is the establishment of pre-positioning warehouse networks. In the pre-positioning strategy, critical relief inventories are located near the regions at which they will be needed in advance of the onset of the disaster. Therefore, pre-positioning reduces the response time by totally or partially eliminating the procurement phase and increasing the availability of relief items just after the disaster strikes. Once the pre-positioning warehouse locations are decided and warehouses on those locations become operational, they will be in use for a long time. Therefore, the chosen locations should be robust enough to enable extensions, and to cope with changing trends in disaster types, locations and magnitudes. In this study, we analyze the effects of natural disaster trends on the expansion plan of pre-positioning warehouse network implemented by CARE International. We utilize a facility location model to identify the additional warehouse location(s) for relief items to be stored as an extension of the current warehouse network operated by CARE International, considering changing natural disaster trends observed over the past three decades.

Estimating climate resilience for conservation across geophysical settings.

PubMed

Anderson, Mark G; Clark, Melissa; Sheldon, Arlene Olivero

2014-08-01

Conservationists need methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every 405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high-scoring sites had the greatest resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their high-quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High-scoring sites captured significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations. Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies-for every geophysical setting-sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Valuating Ecosystem Services of Urban Ponds - case study from Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carle, Nina

2016-04-01

A climate risk assessment for the city of Barisal was carried out by a consultancy firm, financed by KfW Development Bank of Germany. Due to high dependencies on natural capital of people in developing countries they are facing high vulnerability when it comes to changes of the asset category 'natural capital' (here: urban ponds), whether due to the exposition on climate (change) related impacts, implemented measures or land use change. With a closer view on the city's assets, the question remained open to the author 1) Under current conditions, what is the demand for ecosystem services (ES) 2) What is the value of the benefits and the how much is the contribution to the city's welfare? 3) What are the future changes in the demand for ES? And what are the future changes on the supply side (pressures and threats to the ecosystem)? Methodology: The City of Barisal in Bangladesh has a calculated number of around 10.000 urban rain-fed ponds,representing 6.5% of the city area, which represents a huge natural water supply and gives the city its characteristic face. In August 2015 a user survey was conducted in the city of Barisal, in every ward (administrative unit), to determine the demand for ecosystem services related to urban ponds, evaluating over 600 ponds. The findings will present the huge variation of provisioning ecosystem services and an important regulating service, related to economic and domestic use, in a spatial resolution. It will be shown, how the importance of ES changes, by changing the unit of analysis (families or ponds or the city) and the importance for the livelihood of pond owners and users. A relationship between pond area(m2) and number of users was detected, also the role of compensation payments for the pond owners by the users. It will be shown how natural capital, privately and publicly owned,contributes in an important way in buffering unequal distribution of societies resources in the short- and long-run. However society's demand for ES will change in the future, as climate models indicate a change in precipitation patterns for Barisal. Climate change is operating multisectoral and therefore all assets have to be considered to detect the potential damage. This research can show the pathways of people depending on natural captital in developing countries, sharpening the view for vulnerable groups. Furthermore the research can deliver a contribution to the discussion on (financial) investments to build resilient futures.

Changing stakeholder relationships in nature reserve management: a case study on Snake Island-Laotie Mountain National Nature Reserve, Liaoning, China.

PubMed

Zhou, Dan; Wang, Ziyan; Lassoie, James; Wang, Xiaoping; Sun, Lixin

2014-12-15

The number and total area of nature reserves in China has increased rapidly over the past couple of decades; however, the ability to effectively manage these reserves has not kept pace and conflicts between conservation efforts and economic development have emerged. The Snake Island-Laotie Mountain National Nature Reserve (SILMNNR) currently is experiencing the challenges of balancing conservation with local community development. This paper uses components analysis of human ecosystems (HEC) to examine conflicts arising from the management of the nature reserve and uses a stakeholder analysis to identify and better understand stakeholder inter-relationships in the SILMNNR-HEC. The goal of this study is to identify critical factors influencing stakeholder relationships in order to find ways of relieving conflicts between the reserve management and development. The stakeholder analysis revealed that the key stakeholders in the SILMNNR-HEC are natural resources, the Liaoning SILMNNR Authority, local residents, and enterprise developers; however, there was unequal power among stakeholders in the decision making process affecting the nature reserve. The paper evaluated the conditions and processes of SILMNNR-HEC through a framework of stakeholder relationships where critical factors, such as policy, finance, technology, and labor, and their respective strengths and feedbacks among stakeholders, were assessed and showed unequal flows of power among stakeholders. Two approaches are provided for transforming the unbalanced relationships into a stable and sustainable framework to sustainably manage the nature reserve: the first is by changing stakeholder relationships from opposition to cooperation; and the second by enhancing feedbacks and dynamics among stakeholders. The analysis used in this paper can be used as a model to assess conflicts around other protected areas in China and elsewhere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in nurse education: delivering the curriculum.

PubMed

Carr, Graham

2008-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine changes in pre-registration nursing education through the personal accounts of nurse teachers. This paper is based on 37 in-depth interviews within a central London Healthcare Faculty. Each interview was subjected to a process of content analysis described by Miles and Huberman. The interviews took place between August 2003 and March 2004 and totalled 34.4 hours or 305,736 words. There were thirty female and seven male participants, who shared 1015 years of nursing experience, averaging at 27.4 years (min 7-max 42). These were supplemented by 552 years of teaching practice, the average being 15 years (min 0.5-max 29). This paper--delivering the nursing curriculum--identifies that the nature of nursing has changed as it has both expanded and contracted. Participants identified three major changes; the nature of nursing, selection of future nurses and the current impact that large cohorts have on our traditional model of person-centred education. The practice placements remain central to nursing education and it is the nursing role that should define the curriculum and the values of higher education should be supportive of this identity.

[Long-term consequences of polycystic ovary syndrome].

PubMed

Grigoryan, O R; Zhemaite, N S; Volevodz, N N; Andreeva, E N; Melnichenko, G A; Dedov, I I

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common chronic endocrine disease in women. The prevailing complaints at a young age are menstrual irregularities, infertility, and hyperandrogenism-related problems. However, metabolic disorder-induced complications have been in the foreground over years. The review gives the current ideas on a change of clinical manifestations in the natural course of PCOS, as well as the pathogenetically grounded prevention of complications in patients.

Fostering Digital Citizenship through Safe and Responsible Use of ICT: A Review of Current Status in Asia and the Pacific as of December 2014

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

UNESCO Bangkok, 2015

2015-01-01

The proliferation and emergence of information and communications technology (ICT) has fundamentally changed the way in which society operates. The increasingly ubiquitous nature of ICT has also inevitably caused it to become indispensable as part of daily life and a basic building block of modern society. When used effectively and appropriately,…

Illustrative Projections of World Populations to the 21st Century. Current Population Reports, Special Studies Series P-23, No. 79.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Maurice J., Ed.; O'Connell, Martin, Ed.

The document presents high, medium, and low projections of the world's population for the year 2000. The objective of the study is to determine demands on natural resources and the environment which will be brought about by changes in the world's population. The document is presented in three major sections. Section I provides an overview of the…

Towards a More Appropriate University English Curriculum in China in the Context of English as an International Language

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiaoqiong, Betsy Hu; Jing, Xi

2013-01-01

The rapid and wide spread of English has given rise to its lingua franca status, which in turn, changes the nature of English and English teaching at the tertiary level. This paper, based on a survey, discusses some of the problems with the current English curriculum used in Chinese universities and proceeds to offer some suggestions for a more…

Medicaid Program; Mechanized Claims Processing and Information Retrieval Systems (90/10). Final rule.

PubMed

2015-12-04

This final rule will extend enhanced funding for Medicaid eligibility systems as part of a state's mechanized claims processing system, and will update conditions and standards for such systems, including adding to and updating current Medicaid Management Information Systems (MMIS) conditions and standards. These changes will allow states to improve customer service and support the dynamic nature of Medicaid eligibility, enrollment, and delivery systems.

A risk-based classification scheme for genetically modified foods. II: Graded testing.

PubMed

Chao, Eunice; Krewski, Daniel

2008-12-01

This paper presents a graded approach to the testing of crop-derived genetically modified (GM) foods based on concern levels in a proposed risk-based classification scheme (RBCS) and currently available testing methods. A graded approach offers the potential for more efficient use of testing resources by focusing less on lower concern GM foods, and more on higher concern foods. In this proposed approach to graded testing, products that are classified as Level I would have met baseline testing requirements that are comparable to what is widely applied to premarket assessment of GM foods at present. In most cases, Level I products would require no further testing, or very limited confirmatory analyses. For products classified as Level II or higher, additional testing would be required, depending on the type of the substance, prior dietary history, estimated exposure level, prior knowledge of toxicity of the substance, and the nature of the concern related to unintended changes in the modified food. Level III testing applies only to the assessment of toxic and antinutritional effects from intended changes and is tailored to the nature of the substance in question. Since appropriate test methods are not currently available for all effects of concern, future research to strengthen the testing of GM foods is discussed.

Are post-fire silvicultural treatments a useful tool to fight the climate change threat in terms of plant diversity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedo de Santiago, Javier; Esteban Lucasr Borja, Manuel; de las Heras, Jorge

2016-04-01

Adaptative forest management demands a huge scientific knowledge about post-fire vegetation dynamics, taking into account the current context of global change. We hypothesized that management practices should be carry out taking into account the climate change effect, to obtain better results in the biodiversity maintenance across time. All of this with respect to diversity and species composition of the post-fire naturally regenerated Aleppo pine forests understory. The study was carried out in two post-fire naturally regenerated Aleppo pine forests in the Southeastern of the Iberian Peninsula, under contrasting climatic conditions: Yeste (Albacete) shows a dry climate and Calasparra (Murcia) shows a semiarid climate. Thinning as post-fire silvicultural treatment was carried out five years after the wildfire event, in the year 1999. An experiment of artificial drought was designed to evacuate 15% of the natural rainfall in both sites, Yeste and Calasparra, to simulate climate change. Taking into account all the variables (site, silvicultural treatment and artificial drought), alpha diversity indices including species richness, Shannon and Simpson diversity indices, and plant cover, were analyzed as a measure of vegetation abundance. The results showed that plant species were affected by thinning, whereas induced drought affected total cover and species, with lower values at Yeste. Significant site variation was also observed in soil properties, species richness and total plant cover, conversely to the plant species diversity indices. We conclude that the plant community shows different responses to a simulated environment of climate change depending on the experimental site.

Natural or Plant Products for the Treatment of Neurological Disorders: Current Knowledge.

PubMed

Parvez, Mohammad Khalid

2018-01-01

In recent decades, complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) has become very popular in the treatment of several chronic diseases. Natural products as one of the CAM modalities offer potential opportunities to discover lead compounds for novel drug development. The use of CAM or natural products in the prevention of neurodegenerative diseases is comparatively a newer area. A structured online literature search for peer-reviewed research articles was conducted on the PubMed, Europe PMC, Medline and Google Scholar portals, using phrases: natural products for neurologic disorders, phytomedicine for neurodegenerative diseases, natural therapeutics for neurological symptopms etc. Results: The retrieved data showed the natural therapeutics with anti-oxidative and anti-inflammatory salutations evidently plays a crucial role in protecting neurons. Of these, the most promising are caffeine, trigonelline, shogaol, curcumin, resveratrol, baicalein, wogonin, ginsenosides, tanshinones, withanolides, picrosides, parthenolide, cannabinoids, Devil's claw and white willow bark, including Chinese formulations Renshen Shouwu and Shengmai San. Though several herbs and their active ingredients have been studied in laboratory and clinical settings, only a few have been investigated for their molecular mechanisms of action. Notably, despite the promising and safe therapeutic benefits of CAM/herbal medicines, there exists a possible risk when combining them with prescription drugs. As a result, many drugs have shown changes in blood pressure, hepatotoxicity, seizures etc. when combined with certain herbs. Certainly, extensive work is needed to make sure that patients should take a regimen of protective and restorative therapy under an experienced healthcare professional. This article updates on the current knowledge of promising natural products used in neurological disorders. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Hydraulic fracturing for natural gas: impact on health and environment.

PubMed

Carpenter, David O

2016-03-01

Shale deposits exist in many parts of the world and contain relatively large amounts of natural gas and oil. Recent technological developments in the process of horizontal hydraulic fracturing (hydrofracturing or fracking) have suddenly made it economically feasible to extract natural gas from shale. While natural gas is a much cleaner burning fuel than coal, there are a number of significant threats to human health from the extraction process as currently practiced. There are immediate threats to health resulting from air pollution from volatile organic compounds, which contain carcinogens such as benzene and ethyl-benzene, and which have adverse neurologic and respiratory effects. Hydrogen sulfide, a component of natural gas, is a potent neuro- and respiratory toxin. In addition, levels of formaldehyde are elevated around fracking sites due to truck traffic and conversion of methane to formaldehyde by sunlight. There are major concerns about water contamination because the chemicals used can get into both ground and surface water. Much of the produced water (up to 40% of what is injected) comes back out of the gas well with significant radioactivity because radium in subsurface rock is relatively water soluble. There are significant long-term threats beyond cancer, including exacerbation of climate change due to the release of methane into the atmosphere, and increased earthquake activity due to disruption of subsurface tectonic plates. While fracking for natural gas has significant economic benefits, and while natural gas is theoretically a better fossil fuel as compared to coal and oil, current fracking practices pose significant adverse health effects to workers and near-by residents. The health of the public should not be compromized simply for the economic benefits to the industry.

A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warszawski, Lila; Friend, Andrew; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Beerling, David; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Keribin, Rozenn; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark; Nishina, Kazuya; Pavlick, Ryan; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Schewe, Jacob; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2013-12-01

Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5-19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980-2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest.

Rapidly assessing changes in bone mineral balance using natural stable calcium isotopes

PubMed Central

Morgan, Jennifer L. L.; Skulan, Joseph L.; Gordon, Gwyneth W.; Romaniello, Stephen J.; Smith, Scott M.; Anbar, Ariel D.

2012-01-01

The ability to rapidly detect changes in bone mineral balance (BMB) would be of great value in the early diagnosis and evaluation of therapies for metabolic bone diseases such as osteoporosis and some cancers. However, measurements of BMB are hampered by difficulties with using biochemical markers to quantify the relative rates of bone resorption and formation and the need to wait months to years for altered BMB to produce changes in bone mineral density large enough to resolve by X-ray densitometry. We show here that, in humans, the natural abundances of Ca isotopes in urine change rapidly in response to changes in BMB. In a bed rest experiment, use of high-precision isotope ratio MS allowed the onset of bone loss to be detected in Ca isotope data after about 1 wk, long before bone mineral density has changed enough to be detectable with densitometry. The physiological basis of the relationship between Ca isotopes and BMB is sufficiently understood to allow quantitative translation of changes in Ca isotope abundances to changes in bone mineral density using a simple model. The rate of change of bone mineral density inferred from Ca isotopes is consistent with the rate observed by densitometry in long-term bed rest studies. Ca isotopic analysis provides a powerful way to monitor bone loss, potentially making it possible to diagnose metabolic bone disease and track the impact of treatments more effectively than is currently possible. PMID:22652567

From classical mutagenesis to nuclease-based breeding - directing natural DNA repair for a natural end-product.

PubMed

Pacher, Michael; Puchta, Holger

2017-05-01

Production of mutants of crop plants by the use of chemical or physical genotoxins has a long tradition. These factors induce the natural DNA repair machinery to repair damage in an error-prone way. In the case of radiation, multiple double-strand breaks (DSBs) are induced randomly in the genome, leading in very rare cases to a desirable phenotype. In recent years the use of synthetic, site-directed nucleases (SDNs) - also referred to as sequence-specific nucleases - like the CRISPR/Cas system has enabled scientists to use exactly the same naturally occurring DNA repair mechanisms for the controlled induction of genomic changes at pre-defined sites in plant genomes. As these changes are not necessarily associated with the permanent integration of foreign DNA, the obtained organisms per se cannot be regarded as genetically modified as there is no way to distinguish them from natural variants. This applies to changes induced by DSBs as well as single-strand breaks, and involves repair by non-homologous end-joining and homologous recombination. The recent development of SDN-based 'DNA-free' approaches makes mutagenesis strategies in classical breeding indistinguishable from SDN-derived targeted genome modifications, even in regard to current regulatory rules. With the advent of new SDN technologies, much faster and more precise genome editing becomes available at reasonable cost, and potentially without requiring time-consuming deregulation of newly created phenotypes. This review will focus on classical mutagenesis breeding and the application of newly developed SDNs in order to emphasize similarities in the context of the regulatory situation for genetically modified crop plants. © 2016 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage

PubMed Central

Magrach, Ainhoa; Ghazoul, Jaboury

2015-01-01

Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes. PMID:26177201

Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning.

PubMed

Thomassen, Henri A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Semple Delaney, Kathleen; Riley, Seth P D; Serieys, Laurel E K; Pease, Katherine; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Thomas B

2018-02-01

Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11-81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Cross-tail current, field-aligned current, and B(y)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufmann, Richard L.; Lu, Chen; Larson, Douglas J.

1994-01-01

Orbits of individual charged particles were traced in a one-dimensional magnetic field model that included a uniform cross-tail component B(sub yo). The effects of B(sub yo) on the cross-tail current distribution j(sub y)(z), the average cross-tail drift velocity(nu(sub y)z), and the average pitch angle change(delta alpha) experienced during current sheet encounters were calculated. The addition of a B(sub yo) that exceeded several tenths of one nanotesla completely eliminated all resonance effects for odd-N orbits. An odd-N resonance involves ions that enter and exit the current sheet on the same side. Pitch angles of nearly all such ions changed substantially during a typical current sheet interaction, and there was no region of large cross-tail drift velocity in the presence of a modest B(sub yo). the addition of a very large B(sub yo) guide field in the direction that enhances the natural drift produces a large j(y) and small (Delta alpha) for ions with all energies. The addition of a modest B(sub yo) had less effect near even-N resonances. In this case, ions in a small energy range were found to undergo so little change in pitch angle that particles which originated in the ionosphere would pass through the current sheet and return to the conjugate ionosphere. Finally, the cross-tail drift of ions from regions dominated by stochastic orbits to regions dominated by either resonant or guiding center orbits was considered. The ion drift speed changed substantially during such transitions. The accompanying electrons obey the guiding center equations, so electron drift is more uniform. Any difference between gradients in the fluxes associated with electron and ion drifts requires the presence of a Birkeland current in order to maintain charge neutrality. This plasma sheet region therefore serves as a current generator. The analysis predicts that the resulting Birkeland current connects to the lowest altitude equatorial regions in which ions drift to or from a point at which stochastic orbits predominate. The proposed mechanism appears only in analyses that include non-guiding-center effects.

Electrical Characterization of Critical Phase Change Conditions in Nanoscale Ge2Sb2Te5 Pillars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozatay, Ozhan; Stipe, Barry; Katine, Jordan; Terris, Bruce

2008-03-01

Following the original work of Ovshinsky on disordered semiconductors that exhibit ovonic threshold switching (OTS) there has been substantial interest in the electronic reversible switching properties of chalcogenides^1. The current induced phase transitions between polycrystalline and amorphous states in these materials offer orders of magnitude changes in the conductance which makes them an ideal candidate for non-volatile data storage applications. In this work we investigate the scaling of critical programming conditions required to observe such transitions between highly resistive (disordered) and highly conductive (ordered) states by constructing a resistance map with various pulse widths and amplitudes under different cooling conditions (as a function of pulse trailing edge). We study the evolution of critical phase change conditions as a function of contact size (50nm-1μm) and shape (circle-square-rectangle). We compare the resulting switching behaviour with the predictions of a finite-element model of the electro-thermal physics to analyze the nature of the switching dynamics at the nanoscale. ^1 S-H. Lee, Y. Jung, R. Agarwal, Nature Nanotechnology; doi:10:1038/nnano.2007.291

Changing landowners, changing ecosystem? Land-ownership motivations as drivers of land management practices.

PubMed

Sorice, Michael G; Kreuter, Urs P; Wilcox, Bradford P; Fox, William E

2014-01-15

Motivations for owning rural land are shifting from an agricultural-production orientation to a preference for natural and cultural amenities. Resultant changes in land management have significant implications for the type and distribution of landscape-level disturbances that affect the delivery of ecosystem services. We examined the relationship between motivations for owning land and the implementation of conservation land management practices by landowners in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. Using a mail survey, we classified landowners into three groups: agricultural production, multiple-objective, and lifestyle-oriented. Cross tabulations of landowner group with past, current, and future use of 12 different land management practices (related to prescribed grazing, vegetation management, restoration, and water management) found that lifestyle-oriented landowners were overall less likely to adopt these practices. To the degree that the cultural landscape of rural lands transitions from production-oriented to lifestyle-oriented landowners, the ecological landscape and the associated flow of ecosystem services will likely change. This poses new challenges to natural resource managers regarding education, outreach, and policy; however, a better understanding about the net ecological consequences of lower rates of adoption of conservation management practices requires consideration of the ecological tradeoffs associated with the changing resource dependency of rural landowners. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of natural current pH variability on the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus larvae development and settlement.

PubMed

García, Eliseba; Clemente, Sabrina; Hernández, José Carlos

2018-08-01

One of the most important environmental factors controlling the distribution, physiology, morphology and behaviour of marine invertebrates is ocean pH. In the last decade, the effects of decreasing ocean pH as a result of climate change processes (i.e. ocean acidification) on marine organisms have been target of much research. However, the effects of natural pH variability in the species' niche have been largely neglected. Marine coastal habitats are characterized by a high environmental variability and, in some cases, organisms are already coping with pH values predicted by the end of the century. It is thought that because of adaptation or acclimation to natural environmental variability, intertidal species may have some resilience to future changes. In this study, we explored the sensitivities of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus during its larvae development and settlement undergoing two different daily pH frequencies (12 h fluctuation from 7.7 to 8.1 units of pH, and constant pH treatment of 8.1 units of pH) that have been currently recorded in the sampling region (Canary Islands). Results showed that, despite larvae development was slightly enhanced by moderated fluctuating pH regimes, P. lividus larva was able to develop normally in both, fluctuating and constant, pH environments. Results of the settlement experiment showed very clear patterns since postlarvae settlement was only successful when a covering of algae was added, regardless of the pH fluctuation applied. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Misconceptions Surrounding Climate Change: A Review of the Literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, C. M.; McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.

2011-12-01

Misconceptions about climate change abound in every corner of society. The result manifests itself ranging from apprehension to total disregard for climate change conditions. According to several sources, however, a large percentage of the U. S. population do, indeed indicate some concern over global warming and climate change in general. These climate change misconceptions are numerous and include, to name a few; confusion between weather and climate, how greenhouse gases are affecting the earth, the effects of ozone depletion, earth's natural cycles, volcanic activity, nuclear waste and a host of other anthropogenic influences. This paper is a review of the current research literature relating to climate change misconceptions. These errant views will be addressed, cataloged, enumerated, and ranked to get a grasp on where the general population, politicians, scientists, and educators as well as students stand on informed climate change information. The categories where misconceptions arise have been identified in this literature review study and include the following: Natural cycles of the earth, ecological which include deforestation, urban development and any human intervention on the environment, educational - including teacher strategies, student understanding and textbook updates, emotional, ozone layer and its interactions, polar ice, political regulations, mandates and laws, pollution from human sources as well as from nature, religious beliefs and dogma and social beliefs. We suggest appropriate solutions for addressing these misconceptions, especially in the classroom setting, and broadly include available funding sources for work in climate change education. Some solutions include need for compilation of appropriate education resources and materials for public use, need for the development of educational materials that appropriately address the variety of publics, and need for programs that are conducting climate change education research and EPO work to communicate and share resources in a common community. Many organizations are addressing these critical needs and we will compile these efforts in our analysis as well.

Do Changes in Current Flow as a Result of Arrays of Tidal Turbines Have an Effect on Benthic Communities?

PubMed

Kregting, Louise; Elsaesser, Bjoern; Kennedy, Robert; Smyth, David; O'Carroll, Jack; Savidge, Graham

2016-01-01

Arrays of tidal energy converters have the potential to provide clean renewable energy for future generations. Benthic communities may, however, be affected by changes in current speeds resulting from arrays of tidal converters located in areas characterised by strong currents. Current speed, together with bottom type and depth, strongly influence benthic community distributions; however the interaction of these factors in controlling benthic dynamics in high energy environments is poorly understood. The Strangford Lough Narrows, the location of SeaGen, the world's first single full-scale, grid-compliant tidal energy extractor, is characterised by spatially heterogenous high current flows. A hydrodynamic model was used to select a range of benthic community study sites that had median flow velocities between 1.5-2.4 m/s in a depth range of 25-30 m. 25 sites were sampled for macrobenthic community structure using drop down video survey to test the sensitivity of the distribution of benthic communities to changes in the flow field. A diverse range of species were recorded which were consistent with those for high current flow environments and corresponding to very tide-swept faunal communities in the EUNIS classification. However, over the velocity range investigated, no changes in benthic communities were observed. This suggested that the high physical disturbance associated with the high current flows in the Strangford Narrows reflected the opportunistic nature of the benthic species present with individuals being continuously and randomly affected by turbulent forces and physical damage. It is concluded that during operation, the removal of energy by marine tidal energy arrays in the far-field is unlikely to have a significant effect on benthic communities in high flow environments. The results are of major significance to developers and regulators in the tidal energy industry when considering the environmental impacts for site licences.

Do Changes in Current Flow as a Result of Arrays of Tidal Turbines Have an Effect on Benthic Communities?

PubMed Central

Kregting, Louise; Elsaesser, Bjoern; Kennedy, Robert; Smyth, David; O’Carroll, Jack; Savidge, Graham

2016-01-01

Arrays of tidal energy converters have the potential to provide clean renewable energy for future generations. Benthic communities may, however, be affected by changes in current speeds resulting from arrays of tidal converters located in areas characterised by strong currents. Current speed, together with bottom type and depth, strongly influence benthic community distributions; however the interaction of these factors in controlling benthic dynamics in high energy environments is poorly understood. The Strangford Lough Narrows, the location of SeaGen, the world’s first single full-scale, grid-compliant tidal energy extractor, is characterised by spatially heterogenous high current flows. A hydrodynamic model was used to select a range of benthic community study sites that had median flow velocities between 1.5–2.4 m/s in a depth range of 25–30 m. 25 sites were sampled for macrobenthic community structure using drop down video survey to test the sensitivity of the distribution of benthic communities to changes in the flow field. A diverse range of species were recorded which were consistent with those for high current flow environments and corresponding to very tide-swept faunal communities in the EUNIS classification. However, over the velocity range investigated, no changes in benthic communities were observed. This suggested that the high physical disturbance associated with the high current flows in the Strangford Narrows reflected the opportunistic nature of the benthic species present with individuals being continuously and randomly affected by turbulent forces and physical damage. It is concluded that during operation, the removal of energy by marine tidal energy arrays in the far-field is unlikely to have a significant effect on benthic communities in high flow environments. The results are of major significance to developers and regulators in the tidal energy industry when considering the environmental impacts for site licences. PMID:27560657

Patterns and natural history of radiographically defined osteoarthritis in a registry of women

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cerhan, J.R.

The authors studied the natural history of osteoarthritis (OA) in a registry of female radium dial painters who had longitudinal radiographic examinations. Radiographs of the hands, spine, pelvis, knees and feet were graded for OA using the method of Kellgren and Lawrence. The prevalence of OA in this study was consistent with other population-based studies of OA in white women. A full body OA score was defined as the summation of the number of joints with OA. Higher full body OA score was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, after controlling for age and year of birth. Variables cross-sectionallymore » associated with the full body OA score included increasing age; later year of birth; increasing systolic and diastolic blood pressure; increasing uric acid level; a history of diabetes, cholecystectomy, or cardiovascular disease; and being a current drinker of alcohol or being a current smoker. The authors described that natural history of OA for individual joints, joint groups, and the full body. The authors found that progression of OA was common, but not universal. Every joint group studied also displayed some amount of regression, although the authors could not conclude how much of the regression was real versus measurement error. The authors found that, in general, joints with a baseline OA grade of one to four were more likely to progress to a higher grade compared to joints with a grade of zero at baseline. Finally, the authors described predictors of followup OA status and predictors of change from baseline to followup for the full body. Predictors of greater change (to more OA) included increasing age, a history of cholecystectomy, having ever drank alcohol, and not having ever smoked. Predictors of a higher followup OA status included increasing age, increasing baseline full body OA score, a history of cholecystectomy, being a current drinker, and having never smoked.« less

Wildlife and wildlife management in Tanzania.

PubMed

Caro, Tim; Davenport, Tim R B

2016-08-01

Tanzania, arguably mainland Africa's most important nation for conservation, is losing habitat and natural resources rapidly. Moving away from a charcoal energy base and developing sustainable finance mechanisms for natural forests are critical to slowing persistent deforestation. Addressing governance and capacity deficits, including law enforcement, technical skills, and funding, across parts of the wildlife sector are key to effective wildlife protection. These changes could occur in tandem with bringing new models of natural resource management into play that include capacity building, corporate payment for ecosystem services, empowering nongovernmental organizations in law enforcement, greater private-sector involvement, and novel community conservation strategies. The future of Tanzania's wildlife looks uncertain-as epitomized by the current elephant crisis-unless the country confronts issues of governance, embraces innovation, and fosters greater collaboration with the international community. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Electrical characterization of dye sensitized nano solar cell using natural pomegranate juice as photosensitizer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adithi, U.; Thomas, Sara; Uma, V.; Pradeep, N.

2013-02-01

This paper shows Electrical characterization of Dye Sensitized Solar Cell using natural dye, extracted from the pomegranate as a photo sensitizer and ZnO nanoparticles as semiconductor. The constituents of fabricated dye sensitized solar cell were working electrode, dye, electrolyte and counter electrode. ZnO nanoparticles were synthesized and used as semiconductor in working electrode. Carbon soot was used as counter electrode. The resistance of ZnO film on ITO film was found out. There was an increase in the resistance of the film and film changes from conducting to semiconducting. Photovoltaic parameters of the fabricated cell like Short circuit current, open circuit voltage, Fill factor and Efficiency were found out. This paper shows that usage of natural dyes like pomegranate juice as sensitizer enables faster and simpler production of cheaper and environmental friendly solar cell.

Long-term dynamics of a floodplain shallow lake in the Pantanal wetland: Is it all about climate?

PubMed

Silio-Calzada, Ana; Barquín, José; Huszar, Vera L M; Mazzeo, Nestor; Méndez, Fernando; Álvarez-Martínez, Jose Manuel

2017-12-15

Hydrological variability over seasonal and multi-annual timescales strongly shapes the ecological structure and functioning of floodplain ecosystems. The current IPCC climate scenario foresees an increase in the frequency of extreme events. This, in conjunction with other anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., river regulation or land-use changes) poses a serious threat to the natural functioning of these ecosystems. In this study we aimed to i) evaluate the long-term variability of the flooded area of the third largest floodplain lake in the Brazilian Pantanal using remote sensing techniques, and ii) analyze the possible factors influencing this variability. Changes in open-water and riparian floodplain-wetland vegetation areas were mapped by applying an ad hoc-developed remote-sensing method (including a newly developed normalized water index, NWI) to 221 Landsat-Thematic Mapper (TM)/Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images, acquired between 1984 and 2011. Added to the lake's natural swing between riparian floodplain-wetland vegetation expansion and retraction, our analyses revealed large interannual changes, grouped into three main periods within the studied time interval. Moreover, our results indicate that this floodplain-lake system is losing open-water area, paired with an increase in riparian floodplain-wetland vegetation. The system's long-term dynamics are not all climate related, but are the result of a combination of drivers. The start of the Manso dam's operation upstream of the studied system, and the subsequent river regulation because of the dam operation, coupled with climatic oscillation appear to be responsible for the observed changes. However, other factors which were not considered in this study might also be important in this process and contributing to the reduction of the system's resilience to droughts (e.g., land-use changes). This study illustrates the serious conservation risks that the Pantanal faces in the near future, given the current climate-change scenario and the accumulation of dam building projects in this region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

PubMed

Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W; Brown, Ross D; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L H; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V

2016-09-01

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Hojlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne;

Video and Visualization to Communicate Current Geoscience at Museums and Science Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, L.; Trakinski, V.; Gardiner, N.; Foutz, S.; Pisut, D.

2012-12-01

Science Bulletins, a current-science video exhibition program produced by the American Museum of Natural History, was developed to communicate scientific concepts and results to a wide public and educator audience. Funded by a NOAA Environmental Literacy Grant and developed in collaboration with scientists, a series of Science Bulletins pieces mixes data visualization, video, and non-narrated text to highlight recent issues and findings relevant to short and long-term change in the Earth system. Some of the pieces have been evaluated with audiences to assess learning outcomes and improve practices. Videos, evaluation results, and multiplatform dissemination strategies from this series will be shared and discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

Senate consideration of S. 1730 resulted in a recommendation for passage of a bill which would open up onshore oil and gas leasing and eliminate the known geological structure (KGS) requirement for competitive bidding. The Energy and Natural Resources Committee report reviews the 1920 Mineral Leasing Act, and notes that 95% of outstanding leases were awarded on a noncompetitive basis using the KGS designation. The report examines problems under the current simultaneous oil and gas (SIMO) lottery system, the probable impacts of amending the 1920 law, and analyzes each section of the proposed bill. The report concludes with correspondence, statements,more » and an explanation of changes which will be required in current law.« less

Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

PubMed

Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

2017-06-01

Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

Global warming and hepatotoxin production by cyanobacteria: what can we learn from experiments?

PubMed

El-Shehawy, Rehab; Gorokhova, Elena; Fernández-Piñas, Francisca; del Campo, Francisca F

2012-04-01

Global temperature is expected to rise throughout this century, and blooms of cyanobacteria in lakes and estuaries are predicted to increase with the current level of global warming. The potential environmental, economic and sanitation repercussions of these blooms have attracted considerable attention among the world's scientific communities, water management agencies and general public. Of particular concern is the worldwide occurrence of hepatotoxic cyanobacteria posing a serious threat to global public health. Here, we highlight plausible effects of global warming on physiological and molecular changes in these cyanobacteria and resulting effects on hepatotoxin production. We also emphasize the importance of understanding the natural biological function(s) of hepatotoxins, various mechanisms governing their synthesis, and climate-driven changes in food-web interactions, if we are to predict consequences of the current and projected levels of global warming for production and accumulation of hepatotoxins in aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Klonner, Günther; Rammer, Werner; Essl, Franz; Moreno, Adam; Neumann, Mathias; Dullinger, Stefan

2018-04-24

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species.

Purple head broccoli (Brassica oleracea L. var. italica Plenck), a functional food crop for antioxidant and anticancer potential.

PubMed

Chaudhary, Ashun; Choudhary, Sonika; Sharma, Upendra; Vig, Adarsh Pal; Singh, Bikram; Arora, Saroj

2018-05-01

Natural foods are used in many folks and household treatments and have immense potential to treat a serious complication and health benefits, in addition to the basic nutritional values. These food products improve health, delay the aging process, increase life expectancy, and possibly prevent chronic diseases. Purple head Brassica oleracea L. var. italica Plenck is one of such foods and in current studies was explored for chemical compounds at different development stages by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Antioxidant potential was explored employing different assays like molybdate ion reduction, DPPH, superoxide anion radical scavenging and plasmid nicking assay. Inspired by antioxidant activity results, we further explored these extracts for antiproliferative potential by morphological changes, cell cycle analysis, measurement of intracellular peroxides and mitochondrial membrane potential changes. Current study provides the scientific basis for the use of broccoli as easily affordable potent functional food.

Simulating the natural variability of the freshwater budget of the Arctic ocean from the mid to late Holocene using LOVECLIM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, F. J.; Goosse, H.; Renssen, H.

2012-04-01

The influence of freshwater on the long term climatic variability of the Arctic region is currently of significant interest. Alterations to the natural variability of the oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric sources of freshwater to the Arctic ocean, caused by anthropogenic induced warming, are likely to have far reaching effects on oceanic processes and climate. A number of these changes are already observable, such as an intensification of the hydrological cycle, a 7% increase in Eurasian river runoff (1936-1999), a 9% reduction of sea-ice extent per decade (1979-2006), a 120km northward migration of permafrost in Northern Canada (1968-1994), and air temperatures 6°C warmer, in parts, from 2007 to 2010, when compared to the 1958-1996 average. All of these changes add another layer of complexity to understanding the role of the freshwater budget, and this makes it difficult to say with any certainty how these future changes will impact freshwater fluxes of the Arctic gateways, such as the Bering Strait, Fram Strait, Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Barents Sea inflow. Despite these difficulties, there have been studies that have integrated the available data, from both in situ measurements and modelling studies, and used this as a basis to form a picture of the current freshwater budget, and then project upon these hypotheses for the future (Holland et al., 2007). However, one particular aspect of these future projections that is lacking is the accountability of how much future variance is attributable to both natural variability and anthropogenic influences. Here we present results of a mid to late (6-0ka) Holocene transient simulation, using the earth model of intermediate complexity, LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). The model is forced with orbital and greenhouse gas forcings appropriate for the time period. The results will highlight the natural variability of the oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric components of the freshwater budget, over decadal and centennial timescales. When computing the freshwater budget for the period, where in situ measurements are available, LOVECLIM has been shown to perform reasonably well. The intention here is not to present a fully quantitative assessment of the freshwater budget of the Arctic Ocean as such, but to highlight the natural variability of the freshwater budget and its individual components. We hope that this inspires other modelling groups to take a similar approach and work towards understanding the natural variability of the freshwater budget over timescales longer than current measurements allow, and modelling studies have previously attempted. Goosse, H., Brovkin, V., Fichefet, T., Haarsma, R., Huybrechts, P., Jongma, J., Mouchet, A., Selten, F., Barriat, P-Y., Campin, J-M., Deleersnijder, E., Driesschaert, E., Goelzer, H., Janssens, I., Loutre, M-F., Morales Maqueda, M.A., Opsteegh, T., Mathieu, P-P., Munhoven, G., Pettersson, E.J., Renssen, H., Roche, D.M., Schaeffer, M., Tartinville, B., Timmermann, A., Weber, S.L. (2010) Description of the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM Version 1.2, Geoscientific Model Development, 3:603-633 doi: 10.5194/gmd-3-603-2010. Holland, M.M., Finnis, J., Barrett, A.P., Serreze, M.C. (2007) Projected Changes in Arctic Ocean Freshwater Budgets, Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, G04S55, doi:10.1029/2006JG000354, 2007

A multi-site reconstruction algorithm for bottom-up vulnerability assessment of water resource systems to changing streamflow conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Zaerpour, M.

2016-12-01

Current paradigm for assessing the vulnerability of water resource systems to changing streamflow conditions often involves a cascade application of climate and hydrological models to project the future states of streamflow regime, entering to a given water resource system. It is widely warned, however, that the overall uncertainty in this "top-down" modeling enterprise can be large due to the limitations in representing natural and anthropogenic processes that affect future streamflow variability and change. To address this, various types of stress-tests are suggested to assess the vulnerability of water resources systems under a wide range of possible changes in streamflow conditions. The scope of such "bottom-up" assessments can go well beyond top-down projections and therefore provide a basis for monitoring different response modes, under which water resource systems become vulnerable. Despite methodological differences, all bottom-up assessments are equipped with a systematic sampling procedure, with which different possibilities for future climate and/or streamflow conditions can be realized. Regardless of recent developments, currently available streamflow sampling algorithms are still limited, particularly in regional contexts, for which accurate representation of spatiotemporal dependencies in streamflow regime are of major importance. In this presentation, we introduce a new development that enables handling temporal and spatial dependencies in regional streamflow regimes through a unified stochastic reconstruction algorithm. We demonstrate the application of this algorithm accross various Canadian regions. By considering a real-world regional water resources system, we show how the new multi-site reconstruction algorithm can extend the practical utility of bottom-up vulnerability assessment and improve quantifying the associated risk in natural and anthropogenic water systems under unknown future conditions.

Investigating sea bed morphology of an estuary located in the western coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, P.; Behera, M. R.; Ranjan, P.

2016-02-01

Estuaries and tidal inlets are complex natural systems. They form a vital ecosystem and host a plethora of diverse flora and fauna. The major problem associated with them is that they experience both climate effects and human interference in different spatial and temporal scales. The increasing threats of sea level variability and changes in the other ocean parameters like currents, waves, winds and tidal ranges may cause these inlets to behave differently. Mandovi - Zuari is one such complex inlet situated in the western coast of India. It is a major tourist attraction and a home to dense mangrove forest. It experiences mixed tides (mainly semi-diurnal in nature). Also the salinity of this region tends to change seasonally. The annual evolution in morphology of this region is of importance as the sediment transport in this area plays an important role in determining the beach morphology of the adjacent beaches. Tourism being the most important economic driver of this state, it is important to assess the possible changes in the beach morphology over the coming decades. A state-of-the-art process based model, Delft 3D, is used to calculate the annual sediment transport with a focus to understand the morphological evolution history of this inlet. In this regard a hydrodynamic analysis of the region is carried out by forcing a composite tide at the offshore boundary of the model domain to obtain the tidal levels and currents. The sea bed contours are obtained with the help of admiralty charts. For estimating the sediment transport, Van Rijn formula is used as found in the sediment module of Delft 3D. The morphological changes along the coast of Goa, India is estimated and the locations of accretion and erosion are identified.

Near Real-time Ecological Forecasting of Peatland Responses to Warming and CO2 Treatment through EcoPAD-SPRUCE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; Stacy, M.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Sundi, N.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Ecological forecasting is critical in various aspects of our coupled human-nature systems, such as disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change mitigation. Novel advancements are in urgent need to deepen our understandings of ecosystem dynamics, boost the predictive capacity of ecology, and provide timely and effective information for decision-makers in a rapidly changing world. Our Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD) facilitates the integration of current best knowledge from models, manipulative experimentations, observations and other modern techniques and provides both near real-time and long-term forecasting of ecosystem dynamics. As a case study, the web-based EcoPAD platform synchronizes real- or near real-time field measurements from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change Experiment (SPRUCE), a whole ecosystem warming and CO2 enrichment treatment experiment, assimilates multiple data streams into process based models, enhances timely feedback between modelers and experimenters, and ultimately improves ecosystem forecasting and makes best utilization of current knowledge. In addition to enable users to (i) estimate model parameters or state variables, (ii) quantify uncertainty of estimated parameters and projected states of ecosystems, (iii) evaluate model structures, (iv) assess sampling strategies, and (v) conduct ecological forecasting, EcoPAD-SPRUCE automated the workflow from real-time data acquisition, model simulation to result visualization. EcoPAD-SPRUCE promotes seamless feedback between modelers and experimenters, hand in hand to make better forecasting of future changes. The framework of EcoPAD-SPRUCE (with flexible API, Application Programming Interface) is easily portable and will benefit scientific communities, policy makers as well as the general public.

Membrane potential dynamics of axons in cultured hippocampal neurons probed by second-harmonic-generation imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuriya, Mutsuo; Yasui, Masato

2010-03-01

The electrical properties of axons critically influence the nature of communication between neurons. However, due to their small size, direct measurement of membrane potential dynamics in intact and complex mammalian axons has been a challenge. Furthermore, quantitative optical measurements of axonal membrane potential dynamics have not been available. To characterize the basic principles of somatic voltage signal propagation in intact axonal arbors, second-harmonic-generation (SHG) imaging is applied to cultured mouse hippocampal neurons. When FM4-64 is applied extracellularly to dissociated neurons, whole axonal arbors are visualized by SHG imaging. Upon action potential generation by somatic current injection, nonattenuating action potentials are recorded in intact axonal arbors. Interestingly, however, both current- and voltage-clamp recordings suggest that nonregenerative subthreshold somatic voltage changes at the soma are poorly conveyed to these axonal sites. These results reveal the nature of membrane potential dynamics of cultured hippocampal neurons, and further show the possibility of SHG imaging in physiological investigations of axons.

Formal Definition of Measures for BPMN Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynoso, Luis; Rolón, Elvira; Genero, Marcela; García, Félix; Ruiz, Francisco; Piattini, Mario

Business process models are currently attaining more relevance, and more attention is therefore being paid to their quality. This situation led us to define a set of measures for the understandability of BPMN models, which is shown in a previous work. We focus on understandability since a model must be well understood before any changes are made to it. These measures were originally informally defined in natural language. As is well known, natural language is ambiguous and may lead to misunderstandings and a misinterpretation of the concepts captured by a measure and the way in which the measure value is obtained. This has motivated us to provide the formal definition of the proposed measures using OCL (Object Constraint Language) upon the BPMN (Business Process Modeling Notation) metamodel presented in this paper. The main advantages and lessons learned (which were obtained both from the current work and from previous works carried out in relation to the formal definition of other measures) are also summarized.

Managing autonomy levels in the SSM/PMAD testbed. [Space Station Power Management and Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashworth, Barry R.

1990-01-01

It is pointed out that when autonomous operations are mixed with those of a manual nature, concepts concerning the boundary of operations and responsibility become clouded. The space station module power management and distribution (SSM/PMAD) automation testbed has the need for such mixed-mode capabilities. The concept of managing the SSM/PMAD testbed in the presence of changing levels of autonomy is examined. A knowledge-based approach to implementing autonomy management in the distributed SSM/PMAD utilizing a centralized planning system is presented. Its knowledge relations and system-wide interactions are discussed, along with the operational nature of the currently functioning SSM/PMAD knowledge-based systems.

The transition to modernity and chronic disease: mismatch and natural selection.

PubMed

Corbett, Stephen; Courtiol, Alexandre; Lummaa, Virpi; Moorad, Jacob; Stearns, Stephen

2018-05-09

The Industrial Revolution and the accompanying nutritional, epidemiological and demographic transitions have profoundly changed human ecology and biology, leading to major shifts in life history traits, which include age and size at maturity, age-specific fertility and lifespan. Mismatch between past adaptations and the current environment means that gene variants linked to higher fitness in the past may now, through antagonistic pleiotropic effects, predispose post-transition populations to non-communicable diseases, such as Alzheimer disease, cancer and coronary artery disease. Increasing evidence suggests that the transition to modernity has also altered the direction and intensity of natural selection acting on many traits, with important implications for public and global health.

75 FR 26208 - Natural Currents Energy Services, LLC; Notice of Preliminary Permit Application Accepted for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-11

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Project No. 12731-004] Natural Currents Energy Services, LLC; Notice of Preliminary Permit Application Accepted for Filing and Soliciting... April 7, 2010, Natural Currents Energy Services, LLC, filed an application for a preliminary permit...

77 FR 39693 - Natural Currents Energy Services, LLC; Notice of Preliminary Permit Application Accepted for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-05

... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Project No. 14395-000] Natural Currents... Comments, Motions To Intervene, and Competing Applications On April 24, 2012, Natural Currents Energy... the feasibility of the Fisher's Island Tidal Energy Project, which would be located on the Long Island...

Using NASA`s Airborne Topographic Mapper IV to Quantify Geomorphic Change in Arid Southwestern Stream Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finnegan, D. C.; Krabill, W.; Lichvar, R. W.; Ericsson, M. P.; Frederick, E.; Manizade, S.; Yungel, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.

2005-12-01

Understanding how arid stream systems respond to individual climatic events is often difficult given the dynamic and `flashy' nature of most watersheds and the unpredictable nature of individual storm events. Until recently conventional methods for quantifying change dictated the use of stream gauge measurements coupled with periodic cross-section measurements to quantify changes in large-scale channel geometry. Using this approach to quantify change across large areas often proves to be impractical and unattainable given the laborious nature of most surveying techniques including modern GPS systems. Alternately, airborne laser technologies such as NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) are capable of quantifying small-scale changes (~5-10cm) across large-scale terrain rapidly and accurately. The ATM was developed at the NASA-GSFC Wallops Flight Facility. Its current version, ATM-4, measures topography 5,000 times per second across a 45-degree swath below the aircraft by transmitting a 532nm (green) laser pulse and receiving the backscattered signal in a high-speed waveform digitizer. The laser range measurements are combined with aircraft location from GPS and attitude from an inertial navigation system (INS) to provide a precise XYZ coordinate for each (~1-meter diameter) laser footprint on the ground. Our work focuses on the use of airborne laser altimetry to quantify the nature of individual surfaces and the geomorphic change that occurs within small arid stream systems during significant storm events. In September of 2003 and 2005 acquisition surveys using NASA's ATM-IV were flown over Mission Creek, a small arid stream system in Southern California's Mojave Desert with a relatively long gauging history (>40yrs), allowing us to quantify the geomorphic change occurring within the channel as a result of the record storm events during the winter of 2004-2005. Preliminary results associated with our work are encouraging and lead us to believe that when compared to conventional GPS surveys that the accuracy of airborne data is well within the boundaries of data collection necessary for accurate scientific measurements.

Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

2014-12-01

Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in regions where human activity is significant, even if it is under the worst-case RCP8.5 scenario. More realistic assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and the cost estimation of how much economic investments are needed to maintain the current level of the risks of water scarcity are necessary.

Scenarios of large mammal loss in Europe for the 21st century.

PubMed

Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero

2015-08-01

Distributions and populations of large mammals are declining globally, leading to an increase in their extinction risk. We forecasted the distribution of extant European large mammals (17 carnivores and 10 ungulates) based on 2 Rio+20 scenarios of socioeconomic development: business as usual and reduced impact through changes in human consumption of natural resources. These scenarios are linked to scenarios of land-use change and climate change through the spatial allocation of land conversion up to 2050. We used a hierarchical framework to forecast the extent and distribution of mammal habitat based on species' habitat preferences (as described in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List database) within a suitable climatic space fitted to the species' current geographic range. We analyzed the geographic and taxonomic variation of habitat loss for large mammals and the potential effect of the reduced impact policy on loss mitigation. Averaging across scenarios, European large mammals were predicted to lose 10% of their habitat by 2050 (25% in the worst-case scenario). Predicted loss was much higher for species in northwestern Europe, where habitat is expected to be lost due to climate and land-use change. Change in human consumption patterns was predicted to substantially improve the conservation of habitat for European large mammals, but not enough to reduce extinction risk if species cannot adapt locally to climate change or disperse. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.;

Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem

PubMed Central

Asch, Rebecca G.

2015-01-01

Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends. PMID:26159416

Evolutionary Connectionism: Algorithmic Principles Underlying the Evolution of Biological Organisation in Evo-Devo, Evo-Eco and Evolutionary Transitions.

PubMed

Watson, Richard A; Mills, Rob; Buckley, C L; Kouvaris, Kostas; Jackson, Adam; Powers, Simon T; Cox, Chris; Tudge, Simon; Davies, Adam; Kounios, Loizos; Power, Daniel

2016-01-01

The mechanisms of variation, selection and inheritance, on which evolution by natural selection depends, are not fixed over evolutionary time. Current evolutionary biology is increasingly focussed on understanding how the evolution of developmental organisations modifies the distribution of phenotypic variation, the evolution of ecological relationships modifies the selective environment, and the evolution of reproductive relationships modifies the heritability of the evolutionary unit. The major transitions in evolution, in particular, involve radical changes in developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations that instantiate variation, selection and inheritance at a higher level of biological organisation. However, current evolutionary theory is poorly equipped to describe how these organisations change over evolutionary time and especially how that results in adaptive complexes at successive scales of organisation (the key problem is that evolution is self-referential, i.e. the products of evolution change the parameters of the evolutionary process). Here we first reinterpret the central open questions in these domains from a perspective that emphasises the common underlying themes. We then synthesise the findings from a developing body of work that is building a new theoretical approach to these questions by converting well-understood theory and results from models of cognitive learning. Specifically, connectionist models of memory and learning demonstrate how simple incremental mechanisms, adjusting the relationships between individually-simple components, can produce organisations that exhibit complex system-level behaviours and improve the adaptive capabilities of the system. We use the term "evolutionary connectionism" to recognise that, by functionally equivalent processes, natural selection acting on the relationships within and between evolutionary entities can result in organisations that produce complex system-level behaviours in evolutionary systems and modify the adaptive capabilities of natural selection over time. We review the evidence supporting the functional equivalences between the domains of learning and of evolution, and discuss the potential for this to resolve conceptual problems in our understanding of the evolution of developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations and, in particular, the major evolutionary transitions.

Natural variability of pCO2 and pH in the Atlantic and Pacific coastal margins of the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, A. J.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.; Newton, J.; Salisbury, J.; Vandemark, D. C.; Musielewicz, S. B.; Maenner-Jones, S.; Bott, R.; Lawrence-Slavas, N.

2011-12-01

The discovery that seawater chemistry is changing as a result of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, referred to as "ocean acidification", has prompted a large effort to understand how this changing chemistry will impact marine life. Changes in carbon chemistry have been documented in the open ocean; however, in dynamic coastal systems where many marine species live, ocean acidification and the natural biogeochemical variability that organisms are currently exposed to are poorly quantified. In 2010 we began equipping coastal moorings currently measuring pCO2 with pH and other biogeochemical sensors to measure ocean acidification parameters at 3 hour intervals in the surface water. Here we present the magnitude and diurnal to seasonal variability of pCO2 and pH during the first year of observations at 2 sites in the Atlantic and Pacific coastal margins of the U.S.: the Gulf of Maine and outer coast of Washington state. Both the magnitude and range of pCO2 and pH values were much greater at the coastal moorings compared to the open ocean mooring at Ocean Station Papa in the North Pacific and also varied between the two coastal mooring sites. We observed maximum pCO2 values in coastal waters exceeding predicted values for the open ocean at 2x pre-industrial CO2 levels. The range of pCO2 and pH values during this time series was approximately 4 times the range observed at open ocean mooring Papa (2007-2011 time series). In many cases, large variance was observed at short time scales, with values fluctuating more than 200 μatm pCO2 and 0.2 pH between 3-hour cycles. These types of observations are critical for understanding how ocean acidification will manifest in naturally dynamic coastal systems and for informing the experimental design of species response studies that aim to mimic carbon chemistry experienced by coastal marine organisms.

Tissue resistivities determine the current flow in the cochlea.

PubMed

Micco, Alan Gerard; Richter, Claus-Peter

2006-10-01

In individuals with severe to profound hearing loss, cochlear implants bypass normal inner ear function by applying electrical current directly into the cochlea, thereby stimulating cochlear nerve fibers. Stimulating discrete populations of spiral ganglion cells in cochlear implant users' ears is similar to the encoding of small acoustic frequency bands in a normal-hearing person's ear. Thus, spiral ganglion cells stimulated by an electrode convey the information contained by a small acoustic frequency band. Problems that refer to the current spread and subsequent nonselective stimulation of spiral ganglion cells in the cochlea are reviewed. Cochlear anatomy and tissue properties determine the current path in the cochlea. Current spreads largely via scala tympani and across turns. While most of the current leaves the cochlea via the modiolus, the facial canal and the round window constitute additional natural escape paths for the current from the cochlea. Moreover, degenerative processes change tissue resistivities and thus may affect current spread in the cochlea. Electrode design and coding strategies may result in more spatial stimulation of spiral ganglion cells, resulting in a better performance of the electrode-tissue interface.

MARO - Mass Atrocity Response Operations: A Military Planning Handbook

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

while conveying an implied deterrent message to perpetrators. • Current military presence in the region can be reinforced with addi- tional US ...complete HUMINT network is likely to be a time- consuming process, ear- ly efforts may provide useful dividends. • Shows of force can be conducted...climate change, the impact of the information environment on military operations, and the evolving nature of warfare. coL (ret) scott Feil ( Us army) is an

Rewriting History: Historical Research With the Digital Plan

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

significant enough to warrant a change or further analysis of how cadets take notes. The simple nature of the digital pen, akin to writing with a pen on... significant . By the third week the larger the percentage of handwriting correctly recognized, the higher the performance rating for the pen. Related...the pen at all. The current data showed two significant correlations between percent of handwriting recognized and the factors of pen performance and

Adaptation Design Tool for Climate-Smart Management of Coral Reefs and Other Natural Resources.

PubMed

West, Jordan M; Courtney, Catherine A; Hamilton, Anna T; Parker, Britt A; Gibbs, David A; Bradley, Patricia; Julius, Susan H

2018-06-22

Scientists and managers of natural resources have recognized an urgent need for improved methods and tools to enable effective adaptation of management measures in the face of climate change. This paper presents an Adaptation Design Tool that uses a structured approach to break down an otherwise overwhelming and complex process into tractable steps. The tool contains worksheets that guide users through a series of design considerations for adapting their planned management actions to be more climate-smart given changing environmental stressors. Also provided with other worksheets is a framework for brainstorming new adaptation options in response to climate threats not yet addressed in the current plan. Developed and tested in collaboration with practitioners in Hawai'i and Puerto Rico using coral reefs as a pilot ecosystem, the tool and associated reference materials consist of worksheets, instructions and lessons-learned from real-world examples. On the basis of stakeholder feedback from expert consultations during tool development, we present insights and recommendations regarding how to maximize tool efficiency, gain the greatest value from the thought process, and deal with issues of scale and uncertainty. We conclude by reflecting on how the tool advances the theory and practice of assessment and decision-making science, informs higher level strategic planning, and serves as a platform for a systematic, transparent and inclusive process to tackle the practical implications of climate change for management of natural resources.

Monitoring the Carbon Cycle: Improving Our Ability to Proved Policy Relevant Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruhwiler, L.

2017-12-01

Humans have altered the energy balance of the climate system mainly by producing and consuming fossil fuels, but also by emissions from food production. Manufacture and use of halocarbons, many of which are also strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) have added to anthropogenic radiative forcing. In response, the global atmosphere has warmed over the last half century at a rate of 0.17°C. The largest contribution to radiative forcing is due to CO2, and at present, about half of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions have been taken up by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. The size of this "carbon emission discount" may change in the future as more carbon accumulates in the oceans, as human alter landscapes, and as climate changes. Efforts to limit global average temperature increases to 2°C and avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change depend on keeping track of both human emissions of greenhouse gases and changes in natural fluxes of carbon and nitrogen that occur in response to human activities and changing climate. Global in situ network observations provide information about changes in global GHG abundances over recent decades, as well as changing distributions between hemispheres. This information gives insight into changes in global and hemispheric sources and sinks of GHGs. It is, however, currently difficult to obtain robust information about regional sources and to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic fluxes. Information about regional sources is needed for GHG policymaking, while discrimination of natural sources is necessary for detection of trends in GHG fluxes and evaluation of coupled carbon cycle climate models. Although column average GHG abundances from space-based remote sensing data could provide considerable constraints on GHG budgets, there are still technical challenges to be overcome. Possible strategies for making progress involve greater increased observational coverage and more international collaboration, as well as improved modeling and assimilation techniques for estimating fluxes from observations.

WICCI Wildlife Working Group Report

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeDee, Olivia E.; Hagell, Suzanne; Martin, K.; McFarland, David; Meyer, Michael; Paulios, Andy; Ribic, Christine A.; Sample, D.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

2013-01-01

Wisconsin is world-renowned for its diversity of ecological landscapes and wildlife populations.  The northern forests, southern prairies, and interior and coastal wetlands of the state are home to more than 500 terrestrial animal species.  These animals supply the Wisconsin public with aesthetic, cultural, and economic benefits; our identity and economy are intertwined with these natural resources.  Climate change is altering the behavior, distribution, development, reproduction, and survival of these animal populations.  In turn, these changes will alter the aesthetic, cultural, and economic benefits we receive from them.  The focus of the Wildlife Working Group is to document past and current impacts, anticipate changes in wildlife distribution and abundance, and develop adaptation strategies to maintain the vitality and diversity of Wisconsin's wildlife populations.

Biochemical regulation of pigment motility in vertebrate chromatophores: a review of physiological color change mechanisms

PubMed Central

McCartney, Kristen L.

2016-01-01

Abstract The fundamental unit of rapid, physiological color change in vertebrates is the dermal chromatophore unit. This unit, comprised of cellular associations between different chromatophore types, is relatively conserved across the fish, amphibian, and reptilian species capable of physiological color change and numerous attempts have been made to understand the nature of the four major chromatophore types (melanophores, erythrophores, xanthophores, and iridophores) and their biochemical regulation. In this review, we attempt to describe the current state of knowledge regarding what classifies a pigment cell as a dynamic chromatophore, the unique characteristics of each chromatophore type, and how different hormones, neurotransmitters, or other signals direct pigment reorganization in a variety of vertebrate taxa. PMID:29491911

Will novel agents for ALL finally change the natural history?

PubMed

Douer, Dan

2014-01-01

Pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) cure rates have markedly improved over the past years to approximately 85%, but remain at 40%-50% in adults. Redefining current adult chemotherapy regimens is likely to improve the natural course of the disease, but new agents are needed. Immunotherapy approaches for pre-B ALL are in the forefront of research on novel agents; in particular, advances are being made in manipulating autologous T cells either by infusion of a bifunctional antibody (eg, blinatumomab) or by ex vivo genetic modification of chimeric antigen receptors (CARs). The natural course of Philadelphia positive ALL has already improved by targeting ABL/BCR1. Other mutated genes are being discovered and novel small molecules that target their products are being studied in clinical trials. Finally, ALL is a heterogeneous disease and novel agents are likely to impact the natural course of smaller populations of biologically defined ALL subtypes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive capacity and community-based natural resource management.

PubMed

Armitage, Derek

2005-06-01

Why do some community-based natural resource management strategies perform better than others? Commons theorists have approached this question by developing institutional design principles to address collective choice situations, while other analysts have critiqued the underlying assumptions of community-based resource management. However, efforts to enhance community-based natural resource management performance also require an analysis of exogenous and endogenous variables that influence how social actors not only act collectively but do so in ways that respond to changing circumstances, foster learning, and build capacity for management adaptation. Drawing on examples from northern Canada and Southeast Asia, this article examines the relationship among adaptive capacity, community-based resource management performance, and the socio-institutional determinants of collective action, such as technical, financial, and legal constraints, and complex issues of politics, scale, knowledge, community and culture. An emphasis on adaptive capacity responds to a conceptual weakness in community-based natural resource management and highlights an emerging research and policy discourse that builds upon static design principles and the contested concepts in current management practice.

Managing fish habitat for flow and temperature extremes ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Summer low flows and stream temperature maxima are key drivers affecting the sustainability of fish populations. Thus, it is critical to understand both the natural templates of spatiotemporal variability, how these are shifting due to anthropogenic influences of development and climate change, and how these impacts can be moderated by natural and constructed green infrastructure. Low flow statistics of New England streams have been characterized using a combination of regression equations to describe long-term averages as a function of indicators of hydrologic regime (rain- versus snow-dominated), precipitation, evapotranspiration or temperature, surface water storage, baseflow recession rates, and impervious cover. Difference equations have been constructed to describe interannual variation in low flow as a function of changing air temperature, precipitation, and ocean-atmospheric teleconnection indices. Spatial statistical network models have been applied to explore fine-scale variability of thermal regimes along stream networks in New England as a function of variables describing natural and altered energy inputs, groundwater contributions, and retention time. Low flows exacerbate temperature impacts by reducing thermal inertia of streams to energy inputs. Based on these models, we can construct scenarios of fish habitat suitability using current and projected future climate and the potential for preservation and restoration of historic habitat regimes th

Behavioral ecology of captive species: using behavioral adaptations to assess and enhance welfare of nonhuman zoo animals.

PubMed

Koene, Paul

2013-01-01

This project aimed to estimate a species' adaptations in nature and in captivity, assess welfare, suggest environmental changes, and find species characteristics that underlie welfare problems in nonhuman animals in the zoo. First, the current status of zoo animal welfare assessment was reviewed, and the behavioral ecology approach was outlined. In this approach, databases of species characteristics were developed using (a) literature of natural behavior and (b) captive behavior. Species characteristics were grouped in 8 functional behavioral ecological fitness-related categories: space, time, metabolic, safety, reproductive, comfort, social, and information adaptations. Assessments of the strength of behavioral adaptations in relation to environmental demands were made based on the results available from the literature. The databases with literature at the species level were coupled with databases of (c) behavioral observations and (d) welfare assessments under captive conditions. Observation and welfare assessment methods were adapted from the animal on the farm realm and applied to zoo species. It was expected that the comparison of the repertoire of behaviors in natural and captive environments would highlight welfare problems, provide solutions to welfare problems by environmental changes, and identify species characteristics underlying zoo animal welfare problems.

Electromagnetic pulsed thermography for natural cracks inspection

PubMed Central

Gao, Yunlai; Tian, Gui Yun; Wang, Ping; Wang, Haitao; Gao, Bin; Woo, Wai Lok; Li, Kongjing

2017-01-01

Emerging integrated sensing and monitoring of material degradation and cracks are increasingly required for characterizing the structural integrity and safety of infrastructure. However, most conventional nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods are based on single modality sensing which is not adequate to evaluate structural integrity and natural cracks. This paper proposed electromagnetic pulsed thermography for fast and comprehensive defect characterization. It hybrids multiple physical phenomena i.e. magnetic flux leakage, induced eddy current and induction heating linking to physics as well as signal processing algorithms to provide abundant information of material properties and defects. New features are proposed using 1st derivation that reflects multiphysics spatial and temporal behaviors to enhance the detection of cracks with different orientations. Promising results that robust to lift-off changes and invariant features for artificial and natural cracks detection have been demonstrated that the proposed method significantly improves defect detectability. It opens up multiphysics sensing and integrated NDE with potential impact for natural understanding and better quantitative evaluation of natural cracks including stress corrosion crack (SCC) and rolling contact fatigue (RCF). PMID:28169361

State of the art in protection of erosion-corrosion on vertical axis tidal current turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musabikha, Siti; Utama, I. Ketut Aria Pria; Mukhtasor

2018-05-01

Vertical axis tidal current turbine is main part of ocean energy devices which converts the tidal current energy into electricity. Its development is arising too due to increased interest research topic concerning climate change mitigation. Due to its rotating movement, it will be induced mechanical forces, such as shear stress and/or particle impact. Because of its natural operations, vertical axis turbine is also being exposed to harsh and corroding marine environment itself. In order to secure the vertical tidal turbine devices from mechanical wear and corrosion effects which is lead to a material loss, an appropriate erosion-corrosion protection needs to be defined. Its protection actionscan be derived such as design factors, material selections, inhibitors usage, cathodic protections, and coatings. This paper aims to analyze protection method which is necessary to control erosion-corrosion phenomenon that appears to the vertical axis tidal current turbine.

Towards safer, better healthcare: harnessing the natural properties of complex sociotechnical systems.

PubMed

Braithwaite, J; Runciman, W B; Merry, A F

2009-02-01

To sustain an argument that harnessing the natural properties of sociotechnical systems is necessary to promote safer, better healthcare. Triangulated analyses of discrete literature sources, particularly drawing on those from mathematics, sociology, marketing science and psychology. Progress involves the use of natural networks and exploiting features such as their scale-free and small world nature, as well as characteristics of group dynamics like natural appeal (stickiness) and propagation (tipping points). The agenda for change should be set by prioritising problems in natural categories, addressed by groups who self select on the basis of their natural interest in the areas in question, and who set clinical standards and develop tools, the use of which should be monitored by peers. This approach will facilitate the evidence-based practice that most agree is now overdue, but which has not yet been realised by the application of conventional methods. A key to health system transformation may lie under-recognised under our noses, and involves exploiting the naturally-occurring characteristics of complex systems. Current strategies to address healthcare problems are insufficient. Clinicians work best when their expertise is mobilised, and they flourish in groupings of their own interests and preference. Being invited, empowered and nurtured rather than directed, micro-managed and controlled through a hierarchy is preferable.

Towards safer, better healthcare: harnessing the natural properties of complex sociotechnical systems

PubMed Central

Braithwaite, J; Runciman, W B; Merry, A F

2009-01-01

Objectives: To sustain an argument that harnessing the natural properties of sociotechnical systems is necessary to promote safer, better healthcare. Methods: Triangulated analyses of discrete literature sources, particularly drawing on those from mathematics, sociology, marketing science and psychology. Results: Progress involves the use of natural networks and exploiting features such as their scale-free and small world nature, as well as characteristics of group dynamics like natural appeal (stickiness) and propagation (tipping points). The agenda for change should be set by prioritising problems in natural categories, addressed by groups who self select on the basis of their natural interest in the areas in question, and who set clinical standards and develop tools, the use of which should be monitored by peers. This approach will facilitate the evidence-based practice that most agree is now overdue, but which has not yet been realised by the application of conventional methods. Conclusion: A key to health system transformation may lie under-recognised under our noses, and involves exploiting the naturally-occurring characteristics of complex systems. Current strategies to address healthcare problems are insufficient. Clinicians work best when their expertise is mobilised, and they flourish in groupings of their own interests and preference. Being invited, empowered and nurtured rather than directed, micro-managed and controlled through a hierarchy is preferable. PMID:19204130

77 FR 17474 - Natural Currents Energy Services, LLC; Notice of Preliminary Permit Application Accepted for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-26

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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-20

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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-02

.... The proposed project would consist of: (1) Installation of 2 NC Sea Dragon or Red Hawk tidal turbines... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Project No. 14222-000] Natural Currents... Comments, Motions To Intervene, and Competing Applications On July 13, 2011, Natural Currents Energy...

Monitoring Hawaiian biodiversity: Pilot study to assess changes to forest birds and their habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Gaudioso, Jacqueline; Brinck, Kevin W.; Berkowitz, Paul; Jacobi, James D.

2017-01-01

Biological diversity, or biodiversity, is the variety and abundance of species in a defined area, and is one of the oldest and most basic descriptions of biological communities. Understanding how populations and communities are structured and change over space and time in response to internal and external forces is a management priority. Effective management practices and conservation strategies depend on our understanding of the relationship between changes in biodiversity and ecological drivers such as invasive species, land use and climate change. To demonstrate how changes in biodiversity may be monitored over a large (400 km2) tract of native forest habitat, we compared bird and plant community composition and structure in an upper montane region of Hawai‘i Island originally surveyed in 1977 as part of the Hawai‘i Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986) with a comprehensive sample of the same region in 2015.Our findings suggest that across a region spanning an elevation range of 600 to 2,000 m considerable changes occurred in the plant and bird communities between 1977 and 2015. Endemic and indigenous plants species richness (i.e., total number of species) decreased dramatically in the low and middle elevations below an invasive weed front, whereas naturalized plant species richness did not change between the two periods at any elevation. Endemic bird abundance decreased and two species were lost in the lower elevations (< 1,100 m) between 1977 and 2015, while naturalized bird abundance and the numbers of species increased in the same area. In addition to changes in community composition, the structure of the forest showed evidence of changes in dominant and sub-dominant tree canopy cover, shrub and herbaceous cover, dominant tree canopy height, and matted fern cover. Biodiversity monitoring helps to define specific conservation targets and to measure progress towards reaching those targets. It is difficult to ascribe causative factors to a change in biodiversity without directly manipulating the environment. Forest habitat in a variety of settings (i.e., islands and regions with differing land-use histories and elevation ranges), however, can provide opportunities to evaluate the influence of ecological drivers. Declines in native bird biodiversity in low-elevation areas may be attributed to invasive species as land use and climate conditions have remained relatively similar over the 40-year period. Thus, the shift from an endemic-naturalized co-dominated community in 1977 to one dominated by naturalized, alien birds in 2015, and reduction in native bird abundance over that period, may reflect increasing dominance by naturalized plants within this forested area. Inferences drawn from analyses of region-wide surveys, especially with replicate datasets, will facilitate the identification of broad-scale changes in biodiversity, and provide a needed current datum in Hawaiian plant and bird biodiversity monitoring.

Evaluating differences in forest fragmentation and restoration between western natural forests and southeastern plantation forests in the United States.

PubMed

Ren, Xinyu; Lv, Yingying; Li, Mingshi

2017-03-01

Changes in forest ecosystem structure and functions are considered some of the research issues in landscape ecology. In this study, advancing Forman's theory, we considered five spatially explicit processes associated with fragmentation, including perforation, dissection, subdivision, shrinkage, and attrition, and two processes associated with restoration, i.e., increment and expansion processes. Following this theory, a forest fragmentation and restoration process model that can detect the spatially explicit processes and ecological consequences of forest landscape change was developed and tested in the current analysis. Using the National Land Cover Databases (2001, 2006 and 2011), the forest fragmentation and restoration process model was applied to US western natural forests and southeastern plantation forests to quantify and classify forest patch losses into one of the four fragmentation processes (the dissection process was merged into the subdivision process) and to classify the newly gained forest patches based on the two restoration processes. At the same time, the spatio-temporal differences in fragmentation and restoration patterns and trends between natural forests and plantations were further compared. Then, through overlaying the forest fragmentation/restoration processes maps with targeting year land cover data and land ownership vectors, the results from forest fragmentation and the contributors to forest restoration in federal and nonfederal lands were identified. Results showed that, in natural forests, the forest change patches concentrated around the urban/forest, cultivated/forest, and shrubland/forest interfaces, while the patterns of plantation change patches were scattered sparsely and irregularly. The shrinkage process was the most common type in forest fragmentation, and the average size was the smallest. Expansion, the most common restoration process, was observed in both natural forests and plantations and often occurred around the previous expansion or covered the previous subdivision or shrinkage processes. The overall temporal fragmentation pattern of natural forests had a "perforation-subdivision/shrinkage-attrition" pathway, which corresponded to Forman's landscape fragmentation rule, while the plantation forests did not follow the rule strictly. The main land cover types resulted from forest fragmentation in natural forests and plantation forests were shrubland and herbaceous, mainly through subdivision and shrinkages process. The processes and effects of restoration of plantation forests were more diverse and efficient, compared to the natural forest, which were simpler with a lower regrowth rate. The fragmentation mostly occurred in nonfederal lands. In natural forests, forest fragmentation pattern differed in different land tenures, yet plantations remained the same in federal and nonfederal lands. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natural toxins for use in pest management.

PubMed

Duke, Stephen O; Cantrell, Charles L; Meepagala, Kumudini M; Wedge, David E; Tabanca, Nurhayat; Schrader, Kevin K

2010-08-01

Natural toxins are a source of new chemical classes of pesticides, as well as environmentally and toxicologically safer molecules than many of the currently used pesticides. Furthermore, they often have molecular target sites that are not exploited by currently marketed pesticides. There are highly successful products based on natural compounds in the major pesticide classes. These include the herbicide glufosinate (synthetic phosphinothricin), the spinosad insecticides, and the strobilurin fungicides. These and other examples of currently marketed natural product-based pesticides, as well as natural toxins that show promise as pesticides from our own research are discussed.

Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment.

PubMed

Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair B A; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

2013-01-01

Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Climate-Soil-Vegetation Interactions: A Case-Study from the Forest Fire Phenomenon in Southern Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinhard, M.; Alexakis, E.; Rebetez, M.; Schlaepfer, R.

2003-04-01

In Southern Switzerland, we have observed increasing trends in extreme drought and precipitation events, probably linked to global climatic change. These modifications are more important than changes in annual precipitation sums. On the one hand, an increase in extreme drought implies a higher risk for forest fires, impeding the fulfilment of the various forest functions, on the other hand, extreme precipitation events, developing over a short time span, could simultaneously damage the forest ecosystems or destabilise the soil of burned areas, triggering debris flows. Climatic changes might additionally lead to modifications of the current species composition in the forests. Changes are currently observed at lower elevations (laurophiliation), but are still largely unknown at higher elevations. For the time being, forest fires cannot be regarded as natural phenomena in the South of Switzerland because they are mostly anthropogenically triggered. However, the changing climatic patterns, which set new conditions for the forests, may become a new ecological regulator for the forests as well as the forest fires. The social and environmental consequences are important for these issues. The implications for forest planning and management must be further studied and taken into account. Despite uncertainty about the response of forest ecosystems to climate change, planning and management can no longer rely on decadal to century climatic patterns. The increasing importance of changing environmental conditions within the framework of prevention will have to be reconsidered.

The importance of natural history and research collections to environmental reconstruction and remediation, and the establishment of shifting baselines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roopnarine, P. D.; Anderson, L.; Roopnarine, D.; Gillikin, D. P.; Leal, J.

2012-12-01

The Earth's environments are changing more rapidly today than at almost any time in the Phanerozoic. These changes are driven by human activities, and include climate change, landscape alteration, fragmentation and destruction, environmental pollution, species overexploitation, and invasive species. The rapidity of the changes challenges our best efforts to document what is changing, how it has changed, and what has been lost. Central to these efforts, therefore, is the proper documentation, archiving and curation of past environments. Natural history and other research collections form the core of this documentation, and have proven vital to recent studies of environmental change. Those collections are, however, generally under-utilized and under-appreciated by the general research community. Also, their utility is hampered by insufficient availability of the data, and the very nature of what has been collected in the past. Past collections emphasized a typological approach, placing emphasis on individual specimens and diversity, whether geological or biological, while what is needed today is greater emphasis on archiving entire environments. The concept of shifting baselines establishes that even on historical time scales, the notion of what constitutes an unaltered environment is biased by a lack of documentation and understanding of environments in the recent past. Baselines are necessary, however, for the proper implementation of mitigating procedures, for environmental restoration or remediation, and for predicting the near-term future. Here we present results from a study of impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DWH) on the American oyster Crassostrea virginica. Natural history collections of specimens from the Gulf and elsewhere have been crucial to this effort, and serve as an example of how important such collections are to current events. We are examining the effects of spill exposure on shell growth and tissue development, as well as the potential incorporation of trace heavy metals into the tissues and shells of the animals. There are numerous natural hydrocarbon seeps in the Gulf, however, as well as thousands of active and past industrial drill sites. It is expected that organisms in the Gulf have been and continue to be exposed to hydrocarbon contamination, and any conclusions drawn regarding the impact of DWH must account for those other sources. We are therefore establishing baselines of contamination both pre-dating the petroleum industry, and pre-dating the DWH spill. Natural history museum specimens dating back to the 19th century and spanning the 20th, coupled with material collected just prior to, during, and since the spill, are being combined to create a narrative of changing conditions in the Gulf. Those specimens represent our best record of the recent environmental history and states of Gulf coastal environments.

Social and economic impacts of climate.

PubMed

Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

2016-09-09

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Levels of Emotional Awareness: a model for conceptualizing and measuring emotion-centered structural change.

PubMed

Subic-Wrana, Claudia; Beutel, Manfred E; Garfield, David A S; Lane, Richard D

2011-04-01

The need to establish the efficacy of psychoanalytic long-term treatments has promoted efforts to operationalize psychic structure and structural change as key elements of psychoanalytic treatments and their outcomes. Current, promising measures of structural change, however, require extensive interviews and rater training. The purpose of this paper is to present the theory and measurement of Levels of Emotional Awareness (LEA) and to illustrate its use based on clinical case vignettes. The LEA model lays out a developmental trajectory of affective processing, akin to Piaget's theory of sensory-cognitive development, from implicit to explicit processing. Unlike other current assessments of psychic structure (Scales of Psychological Capacities, Reflective Functioning, Operationalized Psychodynamic Diagnostics) requiring intensive rater and interviewer training, it is easily assessed based on a self-report performance test. The LEA model conceptualizes a basic psychological capacity, affect processing. As we will illustrate using two case vignettes, by operationalizing implicit and explicit modes of affect processing, it provides a clinical measure of emotional awareness that is highly pertinent to the ongoing psychoanalytic debate on the nature and mechanisms of structural change. Copyright © 2011 Institute of Psychoanalysis.

The Online Dissemination of Nature-Health Concepts: Lessons from Sentiment Analysis of Social Media Relating to "Nature-Deficit Disorder".

PubMed

Palomino, Marco; Taylor, Tim; Göker, Ayse; Isaacs, John; Warber, Sara

2016-01-19

Evidence continues to grow supporting the idea that restorative environments, green exercise, and nature-based activities positively impact human health. Nature-deficit disorder, a journalistic term proposed to describe the ill effects of people's alienation from nature, is not yet formally recognized as a medical diagnosis. However, over the past decade, the phrase has been enthusiastically taken up by some segments of the lay public. Social media, such as Twitter, with its opportunities to gather "big data" related to public opinions, offers a medium for exploring the discourse and dissemination around nature-deficit disorder and other nature-health concepts. In this paper, we report our experience of collecting more than 175,000 tweets, applying sentiment analysis to measure positive, neutral or negative feelings, and preliminarily mapping the impact on dissemination. Sentiment analysis is currently used to investigate the repercussions of events in social networks, scrutinize opinions about products and services, and understand various aspects of the communication in Web-based communities. Based on a comparison of nature-deficit-disorder "hashtags" and more generic nature hashtags, we make recommendations for the better dissemination of public health messages through changes to the framing of messages. We show the potential of Twitter to aid in better understanding the impact of the natural environment on human health and wellbeing.

Tree physiology research in a changing world.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Merrill R.; Linder, Sune

1996-01-01

Changes in issues and advances in methodology have contributed to substantial progress in tree physiology research during the last several decades. Current research focuses on process interactions in complex systems and the integration of processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales. An increasingly important challenge for future research is assuring sustainability of production systems and forested ecosystems in the face of increased demands for natural resources and human disturbance of forests. Meeting this challenge requires significant shifts in research approach, including the study of limitations of productivity that may accompany achievement of system sustainability, and a focus on the biological capabilities of complex land bases altered by human activity.

Spontaneous electric current flow during deformation of non-piezoelectric marble samples: an indicator of stress state?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartwright-Taylor, A. L.; Sammonds, P. R.; Vallianatos, F.

2016-12-01

We recorded spontaneous electric current flow in non-piezoelectric Carrara marble samples during triaxial deformation. Mechanical data, ultrasonic velocities and acoustic emissions were acquired simultaneously with electric current to constrain the relationship between electric current flow, differential stress and damage. Under strain-controlled loading, spontaneous electric current signals (nA) were generated and sustained under all conditions tested. In dry samples, a detectable electric current arises only during dilatancy and is correlated with the damage induced by microcracking. Signal variations with confining pressure correspond to microcrack suppression, while variations with strain rate are associated with time-dependent differences in deformation mechanism across the brittle to semi-brittle transition. In the brittle regime, the signal exhibits a precursory change as damage localises and the stress drop accelerates towards failure. This change is particularly distinct at dynamic strain rates. Similar changes are seen in the semi-brittle regime although the signal is more oscillatory in nature. Current flow in dry samples is proportional to stress within 90% of peak stress. In fluid-saturated samples proportionality holds from 40% peak stress, with a significant increase in the rate of current production from 90% peak stress associated with fluid flow during dilatancy. This direct relationship demonstrates that electric current could be used as a proxy for stress, indicating when the rock is reaching the limit of its strength. The experimental power law relationship between electric current and strain rate, which mirrors the power-law creep equation, supports this observation. High-frequency fluctuations of electric current are not normally distributed - they exhibit `heavy-tails'. We model these distributions with q-Gaussian statistics and evolution of the q-parameter during deformation reveals a two-stage precursory anomaly prior to sample failure, consistent with the acoustic emissions b-value and stress intensity evolution as modelled from fracture mechanics. Our findings support the idea that electric currents in the crust can be generated purely from solid state fracture processes and that these currents may reflect the stress state within the damaged rock.

On the behavior of return stroke current and the remotely detected electric field change waveform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Xuan-Min; Lay, Erin; Jacobson, Abram R.

2012-04-01

After accumulating a large number of remotely recorded negative return stroke electric field change waveforms, a subtle but persistent kink was found following the main return stroke peak by several microseconds. To understand the corresponding return stroke current properties behind the kink and the general return stroke radiation waveform, we analyze strokes occurring in triggered lightning flashes for which have been measured both the channel base current and simultaneous remote electric radiation field. In this study, the channel base current is assumed to propagate along the return stroke channel in a dispersive and lossy manner. The measured channel base current is band-pass filtered, and the higher-frequency component is assumed to attenuate faster than the lower-frequency component. The radiation electric field is computed for such a current behavior and is then propagated to distant sensors. It is found that such a return stroke model is capable of very closely reproducing the measured electric waveforms at multiple stations for the triggered return strokes, and such a model is considered applicable to the common behavior of the natural return stroke as well. On the basis of the analysis, a number of other observables are derived. The time-evolving current dispersion and attenuation compare well with previously reported optical observations. The observable speed tends to agree with optical and VHF observations. Line charge density that is removed or deposited by the return stroke is derived, and the implication of the charge density distribution on leader channel decay is discussed.

In Brief: Refugee numbers could increase due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielinski, Sarah

2007-05-01

Climate change could push the number of refugees globally to more than one billion by 2050, according to a new report from the British charity Christian Aid. Currently, there are about 155 million `internally displaced persons' worldwide, driven from their homes due to conflict, ethnic persecution, or natural disasters. The addition of climate change and growing population numbers could exacerbate these ongoing problems. In the report, Mali is presented as a case study where ongoing climate change is forcing farmers to find other ways to feed their families; one result is an increased number of people attempting to migrate to Europe. The report calls on rich nations to devote US$100 billion each year to help poor people adapt to changing weather patterns. The report, ``Human tide: the real migration crisis,'' is available at http://www.christian-aid.org.uk/indepth/705caweekreport/

Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik; Hall, L. Embere; Varner, Johanna; Loosen, Anne E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Gahl, Megan K.; Smith, Felisa A.; Lawler, Joshua J.

2017-01-01

Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the limits or constraints on behavioral responses to changing conditions. Here, we characterize the contexts in which organisms respond to climate variability through behavior. First, we quantify patterns in behavioral responses across taxa with respect to timescales, climatic stimuli, life-history traits, and ecology. Next, we identify existing knowledge gaps, research biases, and other challenges. Finally, we discuss how conservation practitioners and resource managers can incorporate an improved understanding of behavioral flexibility into natural resource management and policy decisions.

A Landscape Indicator Approach to the Identification and Articulation of the Ecological Consequences of Land Cover Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, 1970-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, Terrence

2008-01-01

The advancement of geographic science in the area of land surface status and trends and land cover change is at the core of the current geographic scientific research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (McMahon and others, 2005). Perhaps the least developed or articulated aspects of USGS land change science have been the identification and analysis of the ecological consequences of land cover change. Changes in land use and land cover significantly affect the ability of ecosystems to provide essential ecological goods and services, which, in turn, affect the economic, public health, and social benefits that these ecosystems provide. One of the great scientific challenges for geographic science is to understand and calibrate the effects of land use and land cover change and the complex interaction between human and biotic systems at a variety of natural, geographic, and political scales. Understanding the dynamics of land surface change requires an increased understanding of the complex nature of human-environmental systems and will require a suite of scientific tools that include traditional geographic data and analysis methods, such as remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS), as well as innovative approaches to understanding the dynamics of complex systems. One such approach that has gained much recent scientific attention is the landscape indicator, or landscape assessment, approach, which has been developed with the emergence of the science of landscape ecology.

The Worldviews Network: Digital Planetariums for Engaging Public Audiences in Global Change Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyatt, R. J.; Koontz, K.; Yu, K.; Gardiner, N.; Connolly, R.; Mcconville, D.

2013-12-01

Utilizing the capabilities of digital planetariums, the Denver Museum of Nature & Science, the California Academy of Sciences, NOVA/WGBH, The Elumenati, and affiliates of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration formed the Worldviews Network. The network's mission is to place Earth in its cosmic context to encourage participants to explore connections between social & ecological issues in their backyards. Worldviews launched with informal science institution partners: the American Museum of Natural History, the Perot Museum of Nature & Science, the Journey Museum, the Bell Museum of Natural History, the University of Michigan Natural History Museum, and the National Environmental Modeling & Analysis Center. Worldviews uses immersive visualization technology to engage public audiences on issues of global environmental change at a bioregional level. An immersive planetarium show and dialogue deepens public engagement and awareness of complex human-natural system interactions. People have altered the global climate system. Our communities are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events. Land use decisions that people make every day put both human lives and biodiversity at risk through direct and indirect effects. The Worldviews programs demonstrate the complex linkages between Earth's physical and biological systems and their relationship to human health, agriculture, infrastructure, water resources, and energy. We have focused on critical thresholds, such as freshwater use, biodiversity loss, land use change, and anthropogenic changes to the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. We have been guided by environmental literacy principles to help our audiences understand that humans drive current trends in coupled human-natural systems--and that humans could choose to play an important role in reversing these trends. Museum and planetarium staff members join the Worldviews Network team and external advisers to produce programs that span cosmic, global, and bioregional scales. Each presentation employs a 'See, Know, Do' transformative learning model. 'Seeing' involves the creation, presentation, and experience of viewing immersive visualizations within the planetarium to engage visitors' visual-spatial intelligence. For 'Knowing,' the narratives are constructed to help visitors understand the web of physical-ecological-social systems that interact on Earth. The 'Doing' component emerges from interaction among participants: for example, researchers and non-governmental organizations help audience members conceive of their own relationship to the highlighted issue and ways they may remain involved in systemically addressing problems the audience identifies.

49 CFR 1312.10 - Notification of tariff changes and nature of changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Notification of tariff changes and nature of... WATER CARRIER IN NONCONTIGUOUS DOMESTIC TRADE § 1312.10 Notification of tariff changes and nature of... changes and their nature (whether an increase or decrease in service, rates or transportation charges). ...

49 CFR 1312.10 - Notification of tariff changes and nature of changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Notification of tariff changes and nature of... WATER CARRIER IN NONCONTIGUOUS DOMESTIC TRADE § 1312.10 Notification of tariff changes and nature of... changes and their nature (whether an increase or decrease in service, rates or transportation charges). ...

49 CFR 1312.10 - Notification of tariff changes and nature of changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Notification of tariff changes and nature of... WATER CARRIER IN NONCONTIGUOUS DOMESTIC TRADE § 1312.10 Notification of tariff changes and nature of... changes and their nature (whether an increase or decrease in service, rates or transportation charges). ...

49 CFR 1312.10 - Notification of tariff changes and nature of changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Notification of tariff changes and nature of... WATER CARRIER IN NONCONTIGUOUS DOMESTIC TRADE § 1312.10 Notification of tariff changes and nature of... changes and their nature (whether an increase or decrease in service, rates or transportation charges). ...

49 CFR 1312.10 - Notification of tariff changes and nature of changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Notification of tariff changes and nature of... WATER CARRIER IN NONCONTIGUOUS DOMESTIC TRADE § 1312.10 Notification of tariff changes and nature of... changes and their nature (whether an increase or decrease in service, rates or transportation charges). ...

Do Natural Experiments of Changes in Neighborhood Built Environment Impact Physical Activity and Diet? A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

George, Emma S.; Feng, Xiaoqi; Merom, Dafna; Bennie, Andrew; Cook, Amelia; Dwyer, Genevieve; Pang, Bonnie; Astell-Burt, Thomas

2018-01-01

Physical activity and diet are major modifiable risk factors for chronic disease and have been shown to be associated with neighborhood built environment. Systematic review evidence from longitudinal studies on the impact of changing the built environment on physical activity and diet is currently lacking. A systematic review of natural experiments of neighborhood built environment was conducted. The aims of this systematic review were to summarize study characteristics, study quality, and impact of changes in neighborhood built environment on physical activity and diet outcomes among residents. Natural experiments of neighborhood built environment change, exploring longitudinal impacts on physical activity and/or diet in residents, were included. From five electronic databases, 2084 references were identified. A narrative synthesis was conducted, considering results in relation to study quality. Nineteen papers, reporting on 15 different exposures met inclusion criteria. Four studies included a comparison group and 11 were pre-post/longitudinal studies without a comparison group. Studies reported on the impact of redeveloping or introducing cycle and/or walking trails (n = 5), rail stops/lines (n = 4), supermarkets and farmers’ markets (n = 4) and park and green space (n = 2). Eight/15 studies reported at least one beneficial change in physical activity, diet or another associated health outcome. Due to limitations in study design and reporting, as well as the wide array of outcome measures reported, drawing conclusions to inform policy was challenging. Future research should consider a consistent approach to measure the same outcomes (e.g., using measurement methods that collect comparable physical activity and diet outcome data), to allow for pooled analyses. Additionally, including comparison groups wherever possible and ensuring high quality reporting is essential. PMID:29373567

Do Natural Experiments of Changes in Neighborhood Built Environment Impact Physical Activity and Diet? A Systematic Review.

PubMed

MacMillan, Freya; George, Emma S; Feng, Xiaoqi; Merom, Dafna; Bennie, Andrew; Cook, Amelia; Sanders, Taren; Dwyer, Genevieve; Pang, Bonnie; Guagliano, Justin M; Kolt, Gregory S; Astell-Burt, Thomas

2018-01-26

Physical activity and diet are major modifiable risk factors for chronic disease and have been shown to be associated with neighborhood built environment. Systematic review evidence from longitudinal studies on the impact of changing the built environment on physical activity and diet is currently lacking. A systematic review of natural experiments of neighborhood built environment was conducted. The aims of this systematic review were to summarize study characteristics, study quality, and impact of changes in neighborhood built environment on physical activity and diet outcomes among residents. Natural experiments of neighborhood built environment change, exploring longitudinal impacts on physical activity and/or diet in residents, were included. From five electronic databases, 2084 references were identified. A narrative synthesis was conducted, considering results in relation to study quality. Nineteen papers, reporting on 15 different exposures met inclusion criteria. Four studies included a comparison group and 11 were pre-post/longitudinal studies without a comparison group. Studies reported on the impact of redeveloping or introducing cycle and/or walking trails ( n = 5), rail stops/lines ( n = 4), supermarkets and farmers' markets ( n = 4) and park and green space ( n = 2). Eight/15 studies reported at least one beneficial change in physical activity, diet or another associated health outcome. Due to limitations in study design and reporting, as well as the wide array of outcome measures reported, drawing conclusions to inform policy was challenging. Future research should consider a consistent approach to measure the same outcomes (e.g., using measurement methods that collect comparable physical activity and diet outcome data), to allow for pooled analyses. Additionally, including comparison groups wherever possible and ensuring high quality reporting is essential.

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

PubMed

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Ungulate management in national parks of the United States and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Demarais, S.; Cornicelli, L.; Kahn, R.; Merrill, E.; Miller, C.; Peek, J.M.; Porter, W.F.; Sargeant, G.A.

2012-01-01

Enabling legislation—that which gives appropriate officials the authority to implement or enforce the law—impacts management of ungulates in national parks of Canada and the United States (U.S.). The initial focus of such legislation in both countries centered on preserving natural and culturally significant areas for posterity. Although this objective remains primary, philosophies and practices have changed. A Canadian vision for ungulate management emerged during the latter half of the 20th century to protect and maintain or restore the ecological integrity of representative samples of the country’s 39 distinct landscapes, and to include provisions for traditional hunting and fishing practices representative of past cultural impacts on the environment. The current ungulate management approach in the U.S. relies on natural (ecological) processes, as long as normal conditions are promoted and there is no impairment of natural resources. Emphasizing natural processes as the basis has been a challenge because ecosystem dynamics are complex and management is multi-jurisdictional. Additionally, natural regulation typically will not prevent ungulates from reaching and sustaining densities that are incompatible with preservation or restoration of native flora and fauna, natural processes, or historical landscapes.

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine

PubMed Central

D’Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated. PMID:29252985

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine.

PubMed

Bombi, Pierluigi; D'Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated.

The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.; McDowell, Graham; Jones, Julie

2014-10-01

The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shales, J.

Scientists from all over the world are currently attempting to evaluate the impact of both manmade and natural phenomena on climate change, including such issues as the role of oceans as sinks in absorbing CO{sub 2}, the role of sunspots, the absorptive capacity of different tree species, the impact of nitrous oxide and non- CO{sub 2} greenhouse gases, the length of time carbon remains in the atmosphere, the impact of ocean currents and innumerable other issues. Understanding these phenomena, and their interaction will be critical to properly addressing the issue which has tremendous importance for both the US and themore » world economic future development. The climate change issue has the potential to become the vehicle which will link developing countries to the rest of the world, since, embodies in the global climate debate are several of the social issues that the U.N. has attempted to address over the last two decades: hunger, overpopulation, environment, technology, and development. The climate change issue has the potential to test new international institutions, relationships between developed and developing counties and between traditional trading partners.« less

From Risk Towards Resilience: Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptability to Climate Change in the Mekong Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, F. H.; Yasuhara, K.; Tamura, M.; Tabayashi, Y.

2012-12-01

While efforts to mainstream climate adaptation have only begun in recent years, many developing regions are already taking measures to proof themselves from various natural disasters, including storm surges, flooding, land subsidence, and erosion. In the Asia-Pacific region, one of the most vulnerable in the world, climate resilience is urgently needed due to sea level rise and the increasing frequency and intensity of climate events. Yet, many regions and communities are unprepared due to insufficient awareness of disaster risks. In order to utilize the science of the changing environment more effectively, there is a critical need to understand the social context and perception of those who are affected by climate change. Using the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam as an example, we discuss our current efforts to develop a vulnerability and adaptation index for building climate resilience in the Asia-Pacific Region. A survey of current adaptation efforts in this region will be shown and preliminary findings from our survey to understand the perception of disaster risk in this region will be discussed.

GlobTherm, a global database on thermal tolerances for aquatic and terrestrial organisms.

PubMed

Bennett, Joanne M; Calosi, Piero; Clusella-Trullas, Susana; Martínez, Brezo; Sunday, Jennifer; Algar, Adam C; Araújo, Miguel B; Hawkins, Bradford A; Keith, Sally; Kühn, Ingolf; Rahbek, Carsten; Rodríguez, Laura; Singer, Alexander; Villalobos, Fabricio; Ángel Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel; Morales-Castilla, Ignacio

2018-03-13

How climate affects species distributions is a longstanding question receiving renewed interest owing to the need to predict the impacts of global warming on biodiversity. Is climate change forcing species to live near their critical thermal limits? Are these limits likely to change through natural selection? These and other important questions can be addressed with models relating geographical distributions of species with climate data, but inferences made with these models are highly contingent on non-climatic factors such as biotic interactions. Improved understanding of climate change effects on species will require extensive analysis of thermal physiological traits, but such data are both scarce and scattered. To overcome current limitations, we created the GlobTherm database. The database contains experimentally derived species' thermal tolerance data currently comprising over 2,000 species of terrestrial, freshwater, intertidal and marine multicellular algae, plants, fungi, and animals. The GlobTherm database will be maintained and curated by iDiv with the aim to keep expanding it, and enable further investigations on the effects of climate on the distribution of life on Earth.

Metabolic rates of giant pandas inform conservation strategies.

PubMed

Fei, Yuxiang; Hou, Rong; Spotila, James R; Paladino, Frank V; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Zhihe

2016-06-06

The giant panda is an icon of conservation and survived a large-scale bamboo die off in the 1980s in China. Captive breeding programs have produced a large population in zoos and efforts continue to reintroduce those animals into the wild. However, we lack sufficient knowledge of their physiological ecology to determine requirements for survival now and in the face of climate change. We measured resting and active metabolic rates of giant pandas in order to determine if current bamboo resources were sufficient for adding additional animals to populations in natural reserves. Resting metabolic rates were somewhat below average for a panda sized mammal and active metabolic rates were in the normal range. Pandas do not have exceptionally low metabolic rates. Nevertheless, there is enough bamboo in natural reserves to support both natural populations and large numbers of reintroduced pandas. Bamboo will not be the limiting factor in successful reintroduction.

The epigenome and nature/nurture reunification: a challenge for anthropology.

PubMed

Lock, Margaret

2013-01-01

Recognition among molecular biologists of variables external to the body that can bring about hereditable changes in gene expression or cellular phenotypes has reignited nature/nurture discussion. These epigenetic findings may well set off a new round of somatic reductionism because research is confined largely to the molecular level. A brief review of the late nineteenth-century formulation of the nature/nurture concept is followed by a discussion of the positions taken by Boas and Kroeber on this matter. I then illustrate how current research into Alzheimer's disease uses a reductionistic approach, despite epigenetic findings in this field that make the shortcomings of reductionism clear. In order to transcend the somatic reductionism associated with epigenetics, drawing on concepts of local biologies and embedded bodies, anthropologists can carry out research in which epigenetic findings are contextualized in the specific historical, socio/political, and environmental realities of lived experience.

Metabolic rates of giant pandas inform conservation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fei, Yuxiang; Hou, Rong; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Zhihe

2016-06-01

The giant panda is an icon of conservation and survived a large-scale bamboo die off in the 1980s in China. Captive breeding programs have produced a large population in zoos and efforts continue to reintroduce those animals into the wild. However, we lack sufficient knowledge of their physiological ecology to determine requirements for survival now and in the face of climate change. We measured resting and active metabolic rates of giant pandas in order to determine if current bamboo resources were sufficient for adding additional animals to populations in natural reserves. Resting metabolic rates were somewhat below average for a panda sized mammal and active metabolic rates were in the normal range. Pandas do not have exceptionally low metabolic rates. Nevertheless, there is enough bamboo in natural reserves to support both natural populations and large numbers of reintroduced pandas. Bamboo will not be the limiting factor in successful reintroduction.

Metabolic rates of giant pandas inform conservation strategies

PubMed Central

Fei, Yuxiang; Hou, Rong; Spotila, James R.; Paladino, Frank V.; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Zhihe

2016-01-01

The giant panda is an icon of conservation and survived a large-scale bamboo die off in the 1980s in China. Captive breeding programs have produced a large population in zoos and efforts continue to reintroduce those animals into the wild. However, we lack sufficient knowledge of their physiological ecology to determine requirements for survival now and in the face of climate change. We measured resting and active metabolic rates of giant pandas in order to determine if current bamboo resources were sufficient for adding additional animals to populations in natural reserves. Resting metabolic rates were somewhat below average for a panda sized mammal and active metabolic rates were in the normal range. Pandas do not have exceptionally low metabolic rates. Nevertheless, there is enough bamboo in natural reserves to support both natural populations and large numbers of reintroduced pandas. Bamboo will not be the limiting factor in successful reintroduction. PMID:27264109

Gulf of Mexico Climate-History Calibration Study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spear, Jessica W.; Poore, Richard Z.

2010-01-01

Reliable instrumental records of past climate are available for about the last 150 years only. To supplement the instrumental record, reconstructions of past climate are made from natural recorders such as trees, ice, corals, and microfossils preserved in sediments. These proxy records provide information on the rate and magnitude of past climate variability, factors that are critical to distinguishing between natural and human-induced climate change in the present. However, the value of proxy records is heavily dependent on calibration between the chemistry of the natural recorder and of the modern environmental conditions. The Gulf of Mexico Climate and Environmental History Project is currently undertaking a climate-history calibration study with material collected from an automated sediment trap. The primary focus of the calibration study is to provide a better calibration of low-latitude environmental conditions and shell chemistry of calcareous microfossils, such as planktic Foraminifera.

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Industrial Forest Clearcuts in the Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, L. Z.; Boschetti, L.

2015-12-01

Remote sensing has been widely used for mapping and characterizing changes in forest cover, but the available remote sensing forest change products are not discriminating between deforestation (permanent transition from forest to non forest) and industrial forest management (logging followed by regrowth, with no land cover/ land use class change) (Hansen et al, 2010). Current estimates of carbon-equivalent emissions report the contribution of deforestation as 12% of total anthropogenic carbon emissions (van der Werf et al., 2009), but accurate monitoring of forest carbon balance should discriminate between land use change related to forest natural disturbances, and forest management. The total change in forest cover (Gross Forest Cover Loss, GFLC) needs to be characterized based on the cause (natural/human) and on the outcome of the change (regeneration to forest/transition to non/forest)(Kurtz et al, 2010). This paper presents the methodology used to classify the forest loss detected by the University of Maryland Global Forest Change product (Hansen, 2013) into deforestation, disturbances (fires, insect outbreaks) and industrial forest clearcuts. The industrial forest clearcuts were subsequently analysed by converting the pixel based detections into objects, and applying patch level metrics (e.g. size, compactness, straightness of boundaries) and contextual measures. The analysis is stratified by region and by dominant forest specie, to highlight changes in the rate of forest resource utilization in the 2003-2013 period covered by the Maryland Forest Cover Change Product. References Hansen, M.C., Stehman, S.V., & Potapov, P.V. (2010). Reply to Wernick et al.: Global scale quantification of forest change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107, E148-E148 Hansen, M.C., Potapov, P.V., Moore, R et al., (2013), "High resolution Global Maps for the 21stCentury Forest Cover Change", Science 342: 850-853 Kurz, W.A. (2010). An ecosystem context for global gross forest cover loss estimates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107, 9025-9026 van der Werf, G.R., Morton, D.C., DeFries, R.S., Olivier, J.G., Kasibhatla, P.S., Jackson, R.B., Collatz, G.J., & Randerson, J. (2009). CO2 emissions from forest loss. Nature Geoscience, 2, 737-738

The Fate of the World is in your hands: computer gaming for multi-faceted climate change education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedford, D. P.

2015-12-01

Climate change is a multi-faceted (or 'wicked') problem. True climate literacy therefore requires understanding not only the workings of the climate system, but also the current and potential future impacts of climate change and sea level rise on individuals, communities and countries around the world, as noted in the US Global Change Research Program's (2009) Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The asymmetric nature of climate change impacts, whereby the world's poorest countries have done the least to cause the problem but will suffer disproportionate consequences, has also been widely noted. Education in climate literacy therefore requires an element of ethics in addition to physical and social sciences. As if addressing these multiple aspects of climate change were not challenging enough, polling data has repeatedly shown that many members of the public tend to see climate change as a far away problem affecting people remote from them at a point in the future, but not themselves. This perspective is likely shared by many students. Computer gaming provides a possible solution to the combined problems of, on the one hand, addressing the multi-faceted nature of climate change, and, on the other hand, making the issue real to students. Fate of the World, a game produced by the company Red Redemption, has been used on several occasions in a small (20-30 students) introductory level general education course on global warming at Weber State University. Players are required to balance difficult decisions about energy investment while managing regional political disputes and attempting to maintain minimum levels of development in the world's poorer countries. By providing a realistic "total immersion" experience, the game has the potential to make climate change issues more immediate to players, and presents them with the ethical dilemmas inherent in climate change. This presentation reports on the use of Fate of the World in an educational setting, highlighting student experiences and lessons learned from two attempts to use the game as a tool for teaching the multi-faceted nature of climate change.