Impact of Real-world Factors Influencing Investment Decisions on the Costs and Distribution of Climate Change Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, J.; Iyer, G.; McJeon, H. C.; Leon, C.; Hultman, N.

2015-12-01

Strategies to mitigate dangerous anthropogenic climate change require a dramatic transformation of the energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that in turn requires large-scale investments. Investment decisions depend not only on investment capital availability but also on investment risks. A number of factors such as national policy environments, quality of public and private institutions, sector, firm and technology specific characteristics can affect investors' assessments of risks, leading to a wide variation in the business climate for investment. Such heterogeneity in investment risks can have important implications, as investors usually respond to risks by requiring higher returns for riskier projects; delaying or forgoing the investments; or preferring to invest in existing, familiar projects. We study the impact of variation in investment risks on regional patterns of emissions mitigation, the cost of emissions mitigation and patterns of technology deployment. We modify an integrated assessment model, widely used in global climate policy analyses (the Global Change Assessment Model) and incorporate decisions on investments based on risks along two dimensions. Along the first dimension, we vary perceived risks associated with particular technologies. To do so, we assign a higher cost of capital for investment in low-carbon technologies as these involve intrinsically higher levels of regulatory and market risk. The second dimension uses a proxy to vary investment risks across regions, based on an institutional quality metric published by the World Economic Forum. Explicit representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, it raises the cost of emissions mitigation relative to a world with uniform investment risks. Second, it shifts the pattern of emissions mitigation, with industrialized countries mitigating more, and developing countries mitigating less. Our results suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment risks could be an important element in lowering the cost of climate change mitigation solutions.

Racial/ethnic and gender differences in individual workplace injury risk trajectories: 1988-1998.

PubMed

Berdahl, Terceira A

2008-12-01

I examined workplace injury risk over time and across racial/ethnic and gender groups to observe patterns of change and to understand how occupational characteristics and job mobility influence these changes. I used hierarchical generalized linear models to estimate individual workplace injury and illness risk over time ("trajectories") for a cohort of American workers who participated in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1988-1998). Significant temporal variation in injury risk was observed across racial/ethnic and gender groups. At baseline, White men had a high risk of injury relative to the other groups and experienced the greatest decline over time. Latino men demonstrated a pattern of lower injury risk across time compared with White men. Among both Latinos and non-Latino Whites, women had lower odds of injury than did men. Non-Latino Black women's injury risk was similar to Black men's and greater than that for both Latino and non-Latino White women. Occupational characteristics and job mobility partly explained these differences. Disparities between racial/ethnic and gender groups were dynamic and changed over time. Workplace injury risk was associated with job dimensions such as work schedule, union representation, health insurance, job hours, occupational racial segregation, and occupational environmental hazards.

Remission death in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: a changing pattern.

PubMed Central

Atra, A; Richards, S M; Chessells, J M

1993-01-01

The pattern of remission deaths was examined in 842 children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) treated at a single centre over 18 years. The mortality rate from leukaemia fell significantly during three consecutive time periods during which treatment became progressively more intensive and that during remission induction fell from 3.5% to under 1%, but the rate of death in remission stayed constant at 5-6%. The factors associated with an increased risk of remission death were: young age, a higher leucocyte count, bone marrow transplantation, and Down's syndrome. The pattern of remission deaths changed over the years; measles and herpes viruses decreased while deaths associated with periods of intensification and gut toxicity increased. Four children developed second neoplasms. Treatment of ALL is still associated with a significant risk of death in remission but the pattern of infective deaths has changed. Many should be avoidable by provision of adequate supportive care, close supervision after periods of intensive treatment, and appropriate antibiotic, antifungal, and cytokine therapy. PMID:8257173

Temporally varying relative risks for infectious diseases: implications for infectious disease control

PubMed Central

Goldstein, Edward; Pitzer, Virginia E.; O'Hagan, Justin J.; Lipsitch, Marc

2016-01-01

Risks for disease in some population groups relative to others (relative risks) are usually considered to be consistent over time, though they are often modified by other, non-temporal factors. For infectious diseases, in which overall incidence often varies substantially over time, the patterns of temporal changes in relative risks can inform our understanding of basic epidemiologic questions. For example, recent work suggests that temporal changes in relative risks of infection over the course of an epidemic cycle can both be used to identify population groups that drive infectious disease outbreaks, and help elucidate differences in the effect of vaccination against infection (that is relevant to transmission control) compared with its effect against disease episodes (that reflects individual protection). Patterns of change in the in age groups affected over the course of seasonal outbreaks can provide clues to the types of pathogens that could be responsible for diseases for which an infectious cause is suspected. Changing apparent efficacy of vaccines during trials may provide clues to the vaccine's mode of action and/or indicate risk heterogeneity in the trial population. Declining importance of unusual behavioral risk factors may be a signal of increased local transmission of an infection. We review these developments and the related public health implications. PMID:27748685

Temporally Varying Relative Risks for Infectious Diseases: Implications for Infectious Disease Control.

PubMed

Goldstein, Edward; Pitzer, Virginia E; O'Hagan, Justin J; Lipsitch, Marc

2017-01-01

Risks for disease in some population groups relative to others (relative risks) are usually considered to be consistent over time, although they are often modified by other, nontemporal factors. For infectious diseases, in which overall incidence often varies substantially over time, the patterns of temporal changes in relative risks can inform our understanding of basic epidemiologic questions. For example, recent studies suggest that temporal changes in relative risks of infection over the course of an epidemic cycle can both be used to identify population groups that drive infectious disease outbreaks, and help elucidate differences in the effect of vaccination against infection (that is relevant to transmission control) compared with its effect against disease episodes (that reflects individual protection). Patterns of change in the age groups affected over the course of seasonal outbreaks can provide clues to the types of pathogens that could be responsible for diseases for which an infectious cause is suspected. Changing apparent efficacy of vaccines during trials may provide clues to the vaccine's mode of action and/or indicate risk heterogeneity in the trial population. Declining importance of unusual behavioral risk factors may be a signal of increased local transmission of an infection. We review these developments and the related public health implications.

Host contact and shedding patterns clarify variation in pathogen exposure and transmission in threatened tortoise Gopherus agassizii: implications for disease modelling and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, Shweta; Hudson, Peter J.

2016-01-01

Mean field models may misrepresent natural transmission patterns in this and other populations depending on the distribution of high-risk contact and shedding events. Rapid outbreaks in generally solitary species may result from changes to their naturally low-risk contact patterns or due to increases in the frequency of severe infections or super-shedding events – population characteristics that should be further investigated to develop effective management strategies.

Beverage Consumption Patterns of Children Born at Different Risk of Obesity

PubMed Central

Kral, Tanja V.E.; Stunkard, Albert J.; Berkowitz, Robert I.; Stallings, Virginia A.; Moore, Reneé H.; Faith, Myles S.

2010-01-01

Background Increased intake of sugar-sweetened beverages and fruit juice has been associated with overweight in children. Objective This study prospectively assessed beverage consumption patterns and their relationship with weight status in a cohort of children born at different risk for obesity. Methods and Procedures Participants were children born at low risk (n = 27) or high risk (n = 22) for obesity based on maternal prepregnancy BMI (kg/m2). Daily beverage consumption was generated from 3-day food records from children aged 3–6 years and coded into seven beverage categories (milk, fruit juice, fruit drinks, caloric and noncaloric soda, soft drinks including and excluding fruit juice). Child anthropometric measures were assessed yearly. Results High-risk children consumed a greater percentage of daily calories from beverages at age 3, more fruit juice at ages 3 and 4, more soft drinks (including fruit juice) at ages 3–5, and more soda at age 6 compared to low-risk children. Longitudinal analyses showed that a greater 3-year increase in soda intake was associated with an increased change in waist circumference, whereas a greater increase in milk intake was associated with a reduced change in waist circumference. There was no significant association between change in intake from any of the beverage categories and change in BMI z-score across analyses. Discussion Children’s familial predisposition to obesity may differentially affect their beverage consumption patterns. Future research should examine the extent to which dietary factors may play a role in pediatric body fat deposition over time. PMID:18535546

Impacts of global change on landslide hazard and risk in Europe in 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaedicke, C.; Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B.; Sverdrup-Thygeson, K.; Radermacher, C.; Fischer, G.; Hervas, J.; Van Den Eeckhaut, M.

2012-04-01

The research done previously in the SafeLand project (www.safeland-fp7.eu) identified the hotspots of landslide hazard and risk in Europe using three different models. All models were, however, based on the same input data. The analyses covered entire Europe, such that differences between regions and countries in Europe could be identified. This homogenous and objective analysis allowed comparing and ranking European countries in absolute or relative numbers of exposed land area, population and infrastructure. All models identified Italy as the country with the highest exposure to landslide risk. However, the small alpine countries had the highest relative exposure compared to their total land area and population. Overall, 4 to 7 million people in Europe, as well as significant amount of infrastructure are exposed to landslide threat. In the expectation of a changing climate, the question arises on how the level and spatial pattern of landslide hazard and risk in Europe will develop in the 21st century. To answer this question, several factors must be considered. Not only will the climate change in the next 90 years, but also the demography and land cover in Europe will change significantly. Prognosis of landslide risk must take into account a possible reduction in the total population and significant urbanisation in most parts of Europe. This again leads to changes in land cover where for example the amount of forested areas and urban areas may change dramatically. The paper presents the results of a study in the SafeLand project that explores the possible changes in landslide risk and hazard in Europe. The main objective of the study was to quantify the landslide hazard and risk in Europe now and in the future and see if there will be significant changes. Changing precipitation pattern, land cover and population were used as input to assess the landslide hazard and risk in the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. The results were then compared to the present situation in 2010. The effect of climate change varies depending on the type of landslide. In this study the focus was on precipitation-induced landslides, which are a direct consequence of the extreme precipitation events and therefore closely coupled to a change in the frequency of extreme events. Other landslides caused by draught or melt-freeze cycles are often followed a complex sequence of weather events that are difficult, if not impossible to forecast into the future. The study showed that climate change and changes in land cover will only cause minor variations in landslide hazard. The risk associated with landslides, however, is expected to change significantly due to changing patterns of population in Europe.

Changes in seafood consumer preference patterns and associated changes in risk exposure.

PubMed

Jensen, Helen H

2006-01-01

Consumers world-wide are driving changes in the agriculture and food sector. Rising consumer income, changing demographics and lifestyles, and shifting preferences due to new information about the links between diet and health all contribute to new demands for foods. At the same time, technological changes in production, processing and distribution, growth in large-scale retailing, and changes in product availability, as well as expansion of trade world wide, have contributed to a rapidly changing market for food products. Changes in seafood consumption reflect these changes. The changes in consumer consumption patterns, new technologies and trade in product offer both expanded markets as well as new challenges to consumer exposure to food-borne risks. The strict quality control requirements of retail brokers, growth of private labels, and development of value-protecting marketing channels have become increasingly important in food markets. This paper addresses major trends that affect seafood consumption and the market for seafood products and the implications of these changes for consumer risk exposure to food safety hazards. The current economic environment highlights similarities and differences between the developed and developing countries, as well as diversity worldwide in consumption of seafood. Within this context, four major trends affect consumer consumption of foods, including seafood and fish products today: rising income; changing demographics; changing markets for food; and an increasingly global market for food products. Changes in consumer risk exposure to food safety problems are addressed in the context of these trends.

Education-based disparities in knowledge of novel health risks: The case of knowledge gaps in HIV risk perceptions.

PubMed

Kiviniemi, Marc T; Orom, Heather; Waters, Erika A; McKillip, Megan; Hay, Jennifer L

2018-05-01

Risk perception is a key determinant of preventive health behaviour, but when asked, some individuals indicate they do not know their health risk. Low education is associated with both lack of knowledge about health risk and with the persistence and exacerbation of gaps in knowledge about health issues. This study uses the context of an emerging infectious disease threat to explore the hypothesis that the education-don't know risk relation results from differences in knowledge about the health issue of interest. Specifically, we examine whether patterns of change over time follow theoretical predictions that disparities in risk knowledge would increase over time in less educated sectors of the population (knowledge gap hypothesis). Secondary analysis of population-representative behavioural surveillance survey. We analysed data from the 1993 to 2000 Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys, which measured education and perceived HIV/AIDS risk in a population sample collected separately in each survey year; don't know responses were coded. In each year, individuals with higher education were less likely to respond don't know. The absolute prevalence of don't know responding dropped over time; nonetheless, there was an increase over time in the magnitude of the pattern of lower education being associated with greater don't know responding. We found support for the knowledge gap hypothesis. Over time, populations with greater education gained more knowledge about their HIV risk than populations with lower education. Results highlight the need to carefully consider health communication strategies to reach and address those individuals with low education and health knowledge. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? A meaningful potion of the population answers 'don't know' when asked to report their risk for health problems, indicating a lack of risk perception in the domain. Previous studies have shown that level of education is associated with don't know responding - those with lower educational attainment are more likely to respond don't know. The education-don't know responding relation suggests that lack of health information and health domain knowledge might be a factor in lacking risk perception, but this mechanism has not been previously tested. What does this study add? Patterns of changes in don't know responding over time as population-level knowledge of a health risk increase are consistent with the health information/health knowledge hypothesis outlined above. As population knowledge of HIV/AIDS risk in the United States increased over time (indicated by declining overall rates of don't know responses), the relation of education level to don't know responding actually became stronger. The pattern of change over time is the classic 'knowledge gap hypothesis' pattern, which has not been previously demonstrated for knowledge of personal health risk. The knowledge gap response pattern supports the health information/health knowledge hypothesis. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

The Impacts of Dietary Change on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Land Use, Water Use, and Health: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Green, Rosemary; Joy, Edward J. M.; Smith, Pete; Haines, Andy

2016-01-01

Food production is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water and land use, and dietary risk factors are contributors to non-communicable diseases. Shifts in dietary patterns can therefore potentially provide benefits for both the environment and health. However, there is uncertainty about the magnitude of these impacts, and the dietary changes necessary to achieve them. We systematically review the evidence on changes in GHG emissions, land use, and water use, from shifting current dietary intakes to environmentally sustainable dietary patterns. We find 14 common sustainable dietary patterns across reviewed studies, with reductions as high as 70–80% of GHG emissions and land use, and 50% of water use (with medians of about 20–30% for these indicators across all studies) possible by adopting sustainable dietary patterns. Reductions in environmental footprints were generally proportional to the magnitude of animal-based food restriction. Dietary shifts also yielded modest benefits in all-cause mortality risk. Our review reveals that environmental and health benefits are possible by shifting current Western diets to a variety of more sustainable dietary patterns. PMID:27812156

A Healthy Dietary Pattern Reduces Lung Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Sun, Yanlai; Li, Zhenxiang; Li, Jianning; Li, Zengjun; Han, Jianjun

2016-03-04

Diet and nutrients play an important role in cancer development and progress; a healthy dietary pattern has been found to be associated with several types of cancer. However, the association between a healthy eating pattern and lung cancer risk is still unclear. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to evaluate whether a healthy eating pattern might reduce lung cancer risk. We identified relevant studies from the PubMed and Embase databases up to October 2015, and the relative risks were extracted and combined by the fixed-effects model when no substantial heterogeneity was observed; otherwise, the random-effects model was employed. Subgroup and publication bias analyses were also performed. Finally, eight observational studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled relative risk of lung cancer for the highest vs. lowest category of healthy dietary pattern was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.75-0.86), and no significant heterogeneity was detected. The relative risks (RRs) for non-smokers, former smokers and current smokers were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.63-1.27), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62-0.89) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.79-0.93), respectively. The results remained stable in subgroup analyses by other confounders and sensitivity analysis. The results of our meta-analysis suggest that a healthy dietary pattern is associated with a lower lung cancer risk, and they provide more beneficial evidence for changing the diet pattern in the general population.

A public health approach to the impact of climate change on health in southern Africa - identifying priority modifiable risks.

PubMed

Myers, J; Young, T; Galloway, M; Manyike, P; Tucker, T

2011-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change and anticipated adverse impacts on human health as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are taken as given. A conceptual model for thinking about the spectrum of climate-related health risks ranging from distal and infrastructural to proximal and behavioural and their relation to the burden of disease pattern typical of sub-Saharan Africa is provided. The model provides a tool for identifying modifiable risk factors with a view to future research, specifically into the performance of interventions to reduce the impact of climate change.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC AND NATURAL CHANGES IN CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

Both natural and anthropogenic factors affect spatial and temporal patterns in ecosystem conditions. To manage environmental change and risks, distinguishing between natural variations in ecosystem conditions and anthropogenic changes becomes important. This concept is illustrate...

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

2014-11-04

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change

PubMed Central

Dickinson, Maria G.; Orme, C. David L.; Suttle, K. Blake; Mace, Georgina M.

2014-01-01

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk. PMID:25367429

Determinants of changes in dietary patterns among Chinese immigrants: a cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Rosenmöller, Doenja L; Gasevic, Danijela; Seidell, Jaap; Lear, Scott A

2011-05-18

Chinese individuals who have immigrated to a Western country initially tend to have a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared to people who are already living there. Some studies have found, however, that CVD risk increases over time in immigrants and that immigration to a western country is associated with changes in dietary patterns. This could have unfavourable effects on the risk of CVD. There is limited knowledge on the food patterns, awareness and knowledge about healthy nutrition among Chinese immigrants. The objective for this study is to explore changes in food patterns, and levels of awareness and knowledge of healthy nutrition by length of residence among Chinese immigrants to Canada. 120 Chinese individuals born in China but currently living in Canada completed an assessment on socio-demographic characteristics, changes in dietary patterns and variables of awareness and knowledge about healthy foods. With ordinal logistic regression the associations between the quartiles of length of residence and dietary patterns, variables of awareness and knowledge about healthy foods were explored, adjusting for age, sex, education and body mass index. More than 50% of the participants reported increasing consumption of fruits and vegetables, decreasing the use of deep-frying after immigration. Increased awareness and knowledge about healthy foods was reported by more than 50% of the participants. Ordinal regression indicated that Chinese immigrants who lived in Canada the longest, compared to Chinese immigrants who lived in Canada the shortest, consumed significant greater portion sizes (OR: 9.9; 95% CI: 3.11 - 31.15), dined out more frequently (OR: 15.8; 95% CI: 5.0 - 49.85), and consumed convenience foods more often (OR: 3.5; 95% CI: 1.23 - 10.01). Chinese immigrants reported some favourable changes in their dietary intake and greater awareness and more knowledge about healthy foods after immigration. However, an increase in portion size, an increased frequency of dining out and an increased consumption of convenience foods could indicate some unfavourable changes. These results suggest that health promotion strategies should build on the observed benefits of improved nutritional knowledge and target areas of portion size and convenience eating.

Evaluation and applications of the clinically significant change method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: implications for risk-change communication.

PubMed

Olver, Mark E; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Wong, Stephen C P

2015-02-01

We examined the use of the clinically significant change (CSC) method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO), and its implications for risk communication, in a combined sample of 945 treated sexual offenders from three international settings, followed up for a minimum 5 years post-release. The reliable change (RC) index was used to identify thresholds of clinically meaningful change and to create four CSC groups (already okay, recovered, improved, unchanged) based on VRS-SO dynamic scores and amount of change made. Outcome analyses demonstrated important CSC-group differences in 5-year rates of sexual and violent recidivism. However, when baseline risk was controlled via Cox regression survival analysis, the pattern and magnitude of CSC-group differences in sexual and violent recidivism changed to suggest that observed variation in recidivism base rates could be at least partly explained by pre-existing group differences in risk level. Implications for communication of risk-change information and applications to clinical practice are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Changes of menstruation patterns and adverse effects during the treatment of LNG-IUS for symptomatic adenomyosis].

PubMed

Li, L; Leng, J H; Zhang, J J; Jia, S Z; Li, X Y; Shi, J H; Dai, Y; Zhang, J R; Li, T; Xu, X X; Liu, Z Z; You, S S; Chang, X Y; Lang, J H

2016-09-25

Objective: To investigate the changes of mestruation patterns and adverse effects during the treatment of levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system(LNG-IUS)for symptomatic adenomyosis in a prospective cohort study. Methods: From December, 2006 to December, 2014, patients of symptomatic adenomyosis diagnosed by transvaginal ultrasound in Peking Union Medical College Hospital were given LNG-IUS. Before and after placement of IUS, all patients' parameters were recorded, including carrying status of IUS, symptoms and scores of dysmenorrhea, menstruation scores, biochemical indicators, physical parameters, menstruation patterns and adverse effects. Risk factors for changes of menstruation patterns and adverse effects, and their impact on treatment effects were analyzed. Results: Totally 1 100 cases met inclusion criteria, with median age 36 years(range 20-44 years), median follow-up 35 months(range 1 -108 months). During follow-up changes of menstruation patterns increased significantly with amenorrhea and shortened-menstruation being the most common manifestations. On 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months after the placement of LNG-IUS, 0, 5.8%(43/744), 6.9%(47/682), 10.1%(60/595), 17.3%(87/502), 27.2%(104/383)and 29.6%(82/277)patients achieved amenorrhea respectively( P <0.01). Total and subclassification of adverse effects decreased significantly( P <0.01). Within 12 months and >12 months after placement, abdominal pain and body weight increasing ≥5 kg/year were the most common adverse effects. Changes of menstruation patterns, total and subclassifications of adverse effects were neither dependent on patient parameters, treatment modes and treatment effects, nor could predict future LNG-IUS carrying status(all P > 0.05). After taking out of LNG-IUS, most changes of menstruation and adverse effects disappeared. Conclusions: During the treatment of LNG-IUS for symptomatic adenomyosis, changes of menstruation patterns increase gradually with amenorrhea and shortened-menstruation being the most common manifestations, while adverse effects decrease significantly. Changes of menstruation patterns or adverse effects neither have any risk factor nor have impact on treatment effects.

Multiple Health Behaviors: Patterns and Correlates of Diet and Exercise in a Hispanic College Sample

PubMed Central

Hu, Dixie; Taylor, Thom; Blow, Julie; Cooper, Theodore V.

2011-01-01

Obesity rates are alarming in various ethnocultural groups, particularly in Hispanics. With Hispanics being the fastest growing group to enter college, the aims of the current study were to examine patterns and correlates of exercise and dietary behaviors in Hispanic college students. Data were collected from 693 Hispanic undergraduates who enrolled online and received course extra credit for participation. Individuals completed questionnaires assessing constructs of the transtheoretical model for three health behaviors (exercise, dietary fat, and fruit/vegetable stages of change) along with demographic, psychosocial, and acculturation measures. Less than 1% of students had 0 obesity-relevant risks, while 68% indicated 2 or more risks. Only 2% of the sample met fruit and vegetable guidelines. Lower income was associated with greater obesity-relevant risks, while stress coping ability was associated with fewer such risks. Findings indicate specific obesity risk behaviors in Hispanic college students and suggest demographic and psychosocial targets for prevention and intervention according to stage of change. PMID:22051363

Healthful dietary patterns and long-term weight change among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Tobias, D K; Zhang, C; Chavarro, J; Olsen, S; Bao, W; Bjerregaard, A A; Fung, T T; Manson, J E; Hu, F B

2016-11-01

Diet represents a key strategy for the prevention of obesity and type 2 diabetes among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), although effective dietary patterns to prevent weight gain in the long term are largely unknown. We sought to evaluate whether improvement in overall diet quality is associated with less long-term weight gain among high-risk women with prior GDM. Women with a history of GDM (N=3397) were followed from 1991 to 2011, or until diagnosis of type 2 diabetes or other chronic disease. Usual diet was assessed via food frequency questionnaire every 4 years from which we calculated the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (aHEI-2010), Alternate Mediterranean Diet (AMED) and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) dietary pattern scores. Weight, lifestyle and health-related outcomes were self-reported every 2 years. We estimated the change in dietary score with change in body weight using linear regression models adjusting for age, baseline body mass index (BMI), baseline and simultaneous change in physical activity and smoking status and other risk factors. Women were followed up to 20 years, gaining an average 1.9 kg (s.d.=7.0) per 4-year period. Women in the highest quintile (Q5) of diet change (most improvement in quality) gained significantly less weight per 4-year period than the lowest quintile (Q1; decrease in quality), independent of other risk factors (4-year weight change, aHEI-2010: Q5=1.30 kg vs Q1=3.27 kg; AMED: Q5=0.94 kg vs Q1=2.56 kg, DASH: Q5=0.64 kg vs Q1=2.75 kg). Significant effect modification by BMI (p-interactions <0.001) indicated a greater magnitude of weight change among women with a higher baseline BMI for all three patterns. Increased diet quality was associated with less weight gain, independent of other lifestyle factors. Post-partum recommendations on diet quality may provide one strategy to prevent long-term weight gain in this high-risk group.

Improving adherence to healthy dietary patterns, genetic risk, and long term weight gain: gene-diet interaction analysis in two prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Wang, Tiange; Heianza, Yoriko; Sun, Dianjianyi; Huang, Tao; Ma, Wenjie; Rimm, Eric B; Manson, JoAnn E; Hu, Frank B; Willett, Walter C

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To investigate whether improving adherence to healthy dietary patterns interacts with the genetic predisposition to obesity in relation to long term changes in body mass index and body weight. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Health professionals in the United States. Participants 8828 women from the Nurses’ Health Study and 5218 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Exposure Genetic predisposition score was calculated on the basis of 77 variants associated with body mass index. Dietary patterns were assessed by the Alternate Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010), Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH), and Alternate Mediterranean Diet (AMED). Main outcome measures Five repeated measurements of four year changes in body mass index and body weight over follow-up (1986 to 2006). Results During a 20 year follow-up, genetic association with change in body mass index was significantly attenuated with increasing adherence to the AHEI-2010 in the Nurses’ Health Study (P=0.001 for interaction) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (P=0.005 for interaction). In the combined cohorts, four year changes in body mass index per 10 risk allele increment were 0.07 (SE 0.02) among participants with decreased AHEI-2010 score and −0.01 (0.02) among those with increased AHEI-2010 score, corresponding to 0.16 (0.05) kg versus −0.02 (0.05) kg weight change every four years (P<0.001 for interaction). Viewed differently, changes in body mass index per 1 SD increment of AHEI-2010 score were −0.12 (0.01), −0.14 (0.01), and −0.18 (0.01) (weight change: −0.35 (0.03), −0.36 (0.04), and −0.50 (0.04) kg) among participants with low, intermediate, and high genetic risk, respectively. Similar interaction was also found for DASH but not for AMED. Conclusions These data indicate that improving adherence to healthy dietary patterns could attenuate the genetic association with weight gain. Moreover, the beneficial effect of improved diet quality on weight management was particularly pronounced in people at high genetic risk for obesity. PMID:29321156

Cost-efficient and storm surge-sensitive bridge design for coastal Maine.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Climatic variation felt through changing weather patterns is having increasingly acute effects on Maines : transportation infrastructure. Acute risk occurs as a result of events, such as storms and flooding, while chronic risk : surrounds longer r...

Neural measures of social attention across the first years of life: characterizing typical development and markers of autism risk.

PubMed

Luyster, Rhiannon J; Powell, Christine; Tager-Flusberg, Helen; Nelson, Charles A

2014-04-01

Few studies employing event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine infant perception/cognition have systematically characterized age-related changes over the first few years of life. Establishing a 'normative' template of development is important in its own right, and doing so may also better highlight points of divergence for high-risk populations of infants, such as those at elevated genetic risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The present investigation explores the developmental progression of the P1, N290, P400 and Nc components for a large sample of young children between 6 and 36 months of age, addressing age-related changes in amplitude, sensitivity to familiar and unfamiliar stimuli and hemispheric lateralization. Two samples of infants are included: those at low- and high-risk for ASD. The four components of interest show differential patterns of change over time and hemispheric lateralization; however, infants at low- and high-risk for ASD do not show significant differences in patterns of neural response to faces. These results will provide a useful point of reference for future developmental cognitive neuroscience research targeting both typical development and vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Change in Level of Service Inventory-Ontario Revised (LSI-OR) Risk Scores Over Time: An Examination of Overall Growth Curves and Subscale-Dependent Growth Curves.

PubMed

Day, David M; Wilson, Holly A; Bodwin, Kelly; Monson, Candice M

2017-10-01

The dynamic nature of risk to re-offend is an important issue in the management of offenders and has stimulated extensive research into dynamic risk factors that can alter an individual's overall risk to re-offend if addressed. However, few studies have examined the relative importance of these dynamic risk factors, complicating the task of developing case management and treatment plans that will effect the most change. Using a large, high-risk sample and multi-wave data of a common risk assessment tool, the Level of Service Inventory-Ontario Revised (LSI-OR), the current study investigated the relationship among criminogenic risk factors and their role in influencing the overall risk score. Results indicated a diverse pattern of effects on the eight subscale scores, specifically suggesting that changes on Procriminal Attitude/Orientation, Criminal History, and Leisure/Recreation subscales resulted in a quicker rate of change to the overall risk score over time. These results suggest that some factors may be driving the change in overall risk and could potentially effect the most change if prioritized for intervention. Practical implications and implications for further research are discussed.

Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

2010-12-01

Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

Association of major dietary patterns with obesity risk among Mongolian men and women.

PubMed

Dugee, Otgontuya; Khor, Geok Lin; Lye, Munn-Sann; Luvsannyam, Lhagva; Janchiv, Oyunbileg; Jamyan, Batjargal; Esa, Norhaizan

2009-01-01

Mongolia is experiencing changes in its unique nomadic lifestyle and dietary habits in the last two decades with accompanying increase in obesity rate. The dietary pattern approach, which investigates the overall diet in relation to obesity risks, has become appealing in nutrition epidemiology. The aim of this study was to identify major dietary patterns of the Mongolian adults in relation to the risk of having obesity. Dietary intake of a total 418 adults aged ? 25 years was assessed by using a food frequency questionnaire with 68 items. An exploratory factor analysis resulted in three dietary patterns: transitional high in processed meat and potato, traditional rich in whole milk, fats and oils and healthy with greater intake of whole grains, mixed vegetables and fruits. Individuals in the upper quintile of the transitional pattern had significantly greater risk of obesity (BMI > or =25 kg/m2: OR=2.47; 95% CI=1.04-5.86) while subjects in the highest quintile of the healthy dietary pattern were found to have significantly decreased risk of obesity (OR: 0.49; 95% CI=0.25-0.95). Men in the highest quintile of the transitional pattern had greater risk of abdominal obesity WC > or =90 cm: OR= 4.08; 95% CI=1.11-14.97) than those in the lowest quintile. Women in the top quintile of the traditional pattern had a greater odds of having abdominal obesity (WC > or =80 cm: OR=4.59; 95% CI=1.58-13.30) than those in the lowest quintile. The study suggests that public health efforts be targeted at adults in Mongolia to address the undesirable aspects of the transitional and the traditional dietary patterns.

Changes in patterns of injecting drug use in Hungary: a shift to synthetic cathinones.

PubMed

Péterfi, Anna; Tarján, Anna; Horváth, Gergely Csaba; Csesztregi, Tamás; Nyírády, Adrienn

2014-01-01

The spread of synthetic cathinone injecting is a new phenomenon observed in recent years in Hungary. Until 2010, when the first anecdotal reports on cathinone injecting appeared, injecting was associated with the use of heroin and amphetamine. In this paper we review available evidence of the changes in the drug market and a concurrent shift in patterns of injecting drug use that have been taking place in Hungary since 2010. Remarkable changes have been observed in police seizures data since 2010. While new psychoactive substances have appeared, the availability of heroin has dropped significantly. A qualitative study in 2011 revealed that these market changes correlate with changes in patterns of injecting drug use: decreasing heroin use and the appearance of mephedrone injecting were reported by treatment and needle and syringe programme (NSP) personnel. These changes are detectable in other routine epidemiological data collection systems in the following years as well (i.e. treatment, drug-related deaths, NSP clientele). Heroin-related treatment demand dropped, as did heroin-related mortality. Parallel to this, a growing number of clients appeared in treatment and in NSPs who were primarily injecting cathinones. The shift to cathinones can be observed in amphetamine and heroin injectors as well. Monitoring changes in patterns of injecting drug use are especially important because of the vulnerability of this drug-user population and the consequences of this high-risk route of drug administration. The realignment observed in Hungary is to be further investigated with regard to its determinants, changes in risk behaviour, and in treatment needs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Traditional dietary pattern is associated with elevated cholesterol among the Inuit of Nunavik.

PubMed

Labonté, Marie-Ève; Dewailly, Eric; Lucas, Michel; Chateau-Degat, Marie-Ludivine; Couture, Patrick; Lamarche, Benoît

2014-08-01

Our cross-sectional study assessed the associations between dietary patterns and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among Nunavik Inuit. This study was conducted as part of the 2004 Nunavik Inuit Health Survey, which included the collection of clinical measurements, plasma samples, and diet information from a food frequency questionnaire. A sample of 666 Inuit aged 18 years and older was included in our analyses. Dietary patterns were generated by principal component analysis. Multivariate general linear models adjusting for sex, age, waist circumference, and other potential confounders were used to examine associations between dietary patterns and CVD risk factors. Four distinct patterns were identified, namely the traditional, Western, nutrient-poor food, and healthy patterns. The traditional pattern showed positive associations with plasma total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, apolipoprotein B100, LDL peak particle diameter, and oxidized LDL (all P values for trend≤0.04), but showed no association with the total cholesterol:high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio or with inflammatory biomarkers (all P values for trend ≥0.19). The nutrient-poor food pattern was positively associated with oxidized LDL (P=0.04), but inversely associated with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P<0.0001). The Western and healthy patterns showed no association with any CVD risk factor. Our data show that high adherence to a traditional pattern among Nunavik Inuit is not associated with important changes in CVD risk factors, with the exception of a slight elevation in cholesterol concentrations, most likely attributable to increased n-3 fatty acid intake. Dietary patterns reflecting the recent introduction of market foods in the Inuit diet appear to exert a trivial influence on CVD risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting stability and change in risky driving from late adolescence to the late twenties.

PubMed

Vassallo, Suzanne; Lahausse, Julie; Edwards, Ben

2016-03-01

The risky driving tendencies of young drivers has been extensively researched, but much less is known about across-time patterns of risky driving behavior and the factors which influence these. This study identified factors associated with stable, increasing and decreasing risky driving trajectories among 751 Australian drivers participating in an ongoing longitudinal study. Five groups were formed on the basis of participants' patterns of risky driving from 19-20 to 27-28 years (i.e., stable low-risk, stable speeding, stable high-risk, increasing and decreasing). Very few participants exhibited a stable high-risk pattern. Characteristics that differentiated the different across-time groups were identified using Multinomial Logistic Regression. The most consistent correlates of risky driving patterns were antisocial behavior, binge drinking and relationship status. Sex, school completion, temperament, civic engagement, and antisocial peer friendships were also correlated with different across-time patterns. The implications of these findings for road safety are discussed. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patterns of reasoning and decision making about condom use by urban college students.

PubMed

Patel, V L; Gutnik, L A; Yoskowitz, N A; O'sullivan, L F; Kaufman, D R

2006-11-01

HIV infection rates are rapidly increasing among young heterosexuals, making it increasingly important to understand how these individuals make decisions regarding risk in sexual encounters. Our objective in this study was to characterize young adults' safer sex behaviour and associate this behaviour with patterns of reasoning, using cognitive, information processing methods to understand the process of sexual risk taking. Sixty urban college students from NYC maintained diaries for two weeks and then were interviewed regarding lifetime condom use and sexual history. Using cognitive analysis, we characterized four patterns of condom use behaviour: consistent condom use (35.0%), inconsistent condom use (16.7%), shifting from consistent to inconsistent condom use (35.0%), and shifting from inconsistent to consistent condom use (13.3%). Directionality of reasoning (i.e. data-driven and hypothesis-driven reasoning) was analysed in the explanations provided for condom use decisions. The consistent and inconsistent patterns of condom use were associated with data-driven heuristic reasoning, where behaviour becomes automated and is associated with a high level of confidence in one's judgment. In the other two patterns, the shift in behaviour was due to a significant event that caused a change in type of reasoning to explanation-based reasoning, reflecting feelings of uncertainty and willingness to evaluate their decisions. We discuss these results within the framework of identifying potentially high-risk groups (e.g. heterosexual young adults) as well as intervention strategies for risk reduction. Further, our findings not only identify different patterns of condom use behaviour, but our investigation of the cognitive process of decision-making characterizes the conditions under which such behaviour and reasoning change.

[Ecological risk assessment of rural-urban ecotone based on landscape pattern: A case study in Daiyue District of Tai' an City, Shandong Province of East China].

PubMed

Shi, Hao-Peng; Yu, Kai-Qin; Feng, Yong-jun

2013-03-01

Based on the remote sensing data in 2000, 2005, and 2010, this paper analyzed the variation trends of the land use type and landscape pattern in Daiyue District of Tai' an City from 2000 to 2010. The ecological risk index was built, that of the District was re-sampled and spatially interpolated, and the spatiotemporal pattern of the ecological risk in the rural-urban ecotone of the District was analyzed. In 2000-2010, the main variation trend of the land use type in the District was the shift from natural landscape to artificial landscape. The intensity of human disturbance was larger in cultivated land, garden plot, and forestland than in other landscape types, while the human disturbance in water area was smaller. The ecological loss degree of cultivated land and water area decreased somewhat, while that of the other land use types presented an increasing trend. The ecological risk distribution in the District was discrete in 2000 and 2010, but most centralized in 2005. The ecological risk of each ecological risk sub-area had an increasing trend in 2000-2005, but was in adverse in 2005-2010. In 2000-2010, the ecological risk of the District was mainly at medium level. Spatially, the distribution of the ecological risk in the District had an obvious differentiation, with an overall diffusive increasing from forestland as the center to the surrounding areas. In the District, the ecological risk was mainly at medium and higher levels, the area with lower ecological risk had an obvious dynamic change, while that with the lowest and highest ecological risk had less change.

Climate teleconnections and recent patterns of human and animal disease outbreaks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the p...

Mortality and economic instability: detailed analyses for Britain and comparative analyses for selected industrialized countries.

PubMed

Brenner, M H

1983-01-01

This paper discusses a first-stage analysis of the link of unemployment rates, as well as other economic, social and environmental health risk factors, to mortality rates in postwar Britain. The results presented represent part of an international study of the impact of economic change on mortality patterns in industrialized countries. The mortality patterns examined include total and infant mortality and (by cause) cardiovascular (total), cerebrovascular and heart disease, cirrhosis of the liver, and suicide, homicide and motor vehicle accidents. Among the most prominent factors that beneficially influence postwar mortality patterns in England/Wales and Scotland are economic growth and stability and health service availability. A principal detrimental factor to health is a high rate of unemployment. Additional factors that have an adverse influence on mortality rates are cigarette consumption and heavy alcohol use and unusually cold winter temperatures (especially in Scotland). The model of mortality that includes both economic changes and behavioral and environmental risk factors was successfully applied to infant mortality rates in the interwar period. In addition, the "simple" economic change model of mortality (using only economic indicators) was applied to other industrialized countries. In Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden, the simple version of the economic change model could be successfully applied only if the analysis was begun before World War II; for analysis beginning in the postwar era, the more sophisticated economic change model, including behavioral and environmental risk factors, was required. In France, West Germany, Italy, and Spain, by contrast, some success was achieved using the simple economic change model.

A developmental study of risky decisions on the cake gambling task: age and gender analyses of probability estimation and reward evaluation.

PubMed

Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Westenberg, P Michiel; Crone, Eveline A

2008-01-01

Decision making, or the process of choosing between competing courses of actions, is highly sensitive to age-related change, showing development throughout adolescence. In this study, we tested whether the development of decision making under risk is related to changes in risk-estimation abilities. Participants (N = 93) between ages 8-30 performed a child friendly gambling task, the Cake Gambling task, which was inspired by the Cambridge Gambling Task (Rogers et al., 1999), which has previously been shown to be sensitive to orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) damage. The task allowed comparisons of the contributions to risk perception of (1) the ability to estimate probabilities and (2) evaluate rewards. Adult performance patterns were highly similar to those found in previous reports, showing increased risk taking with increases in the probability of winning and the magnitude of potential reward. Behavioral patterns in children and adolescents did not differ from adult patterns, showing a similar ability for probability estimation and reward evaluation. These data suggest that participants 8 years and older perform like adults in a gambling task, previously shown to depend on the OFC in which all the information needed to make an advantageous decision is given on each trial and no information needs to be inferred from previous behavior. Interestingly, at all ages, females were more risk-averse than males. These results suggest that the increase in real-life risky behavior that is seen in adolescence is not a consequence of changes in risk perception abilities. The findings are discussed in relation to theories about the protracted development of the prefrontal cortex.

Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China

PubMed Central

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

2016-01-01

Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21st century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change. PMID:26867481

Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

PubMed

Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

2016-02-12

Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

Weight change across the start of three consecutive pregnancies and the risk of maternal morbidity and SGA birth at the second and third pregnancy

PubMed Central

Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Horgan, Graham W.

2017-01-01

Background Weight-change across parities and/or current BMI may influence maternal and fetal morbidity and requires to be differentiated to better inform weight-management guidance. Methods Direction, pattern and magnitude of weight-change across three consecutive parities and thereby two inter-pregnancy periods was described in 5079 women. The association between inter-pregnancy weight-change versus current BMI and adverse maternal events, SGA-birth and preterm delivery at second and third pregnancy were investigated by logistic regression. Results More women gained weight across the defined childbearing period than lost it, with ~35% of normal and overweight women gaining sufficient weight to move up a BMI-category. Nine patterns of weight-change were defined across two inter-pregnancy periods and 50% of women remained weight-stable throughout (within 2BMI units/period). Women who were overweight/obese at first pregnancy had higher risk of substantial weight-gain and loss (>10kg) during each of two inter-pregnancy periods. Inter-pregnancy weight-gain (> 2BMI units) between first and second pregnancy increased the risk of maternal morbidity (1or more event of hypertensive disease, caesarean-section, thromboembolism) at second pregnancy, while weight-loss (>2BMI units) increased the risk of SGA-birth. Similarly, increased risk of maternal morbidity at the third pregnancy was influenced by weight-gain during both inter-pregnancy periods but not by current BMI-category. Both weight-gain between first and second pregnancy, and being overweight/obese by third pregnancy protected the fetus against SGA-birth whereas weight-loss between second and third pregnancy doubled the SGA risk. Conclusion Half the women studied exhibited significant weight-fluctuations. This influenced their risk of maternal morbidity and SGA-birth at second and third pregnancy. PMID:28628636

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Effect of Health Lifestyle Pattern on Dietary Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Halloran, Peggy; Lazovich, DeAnn; Patterson, Ruth E.; Harnack, Lisa; French, Simone; Curry, Sue J.; Beresford, Shirley A. A.

2001-01-01

Examined the impact of lifestyle on the effectiveness of a low-intensity dietary intervention. Analysis of data from the Eating Patterns Study indicated that people who practiced certain combinations of health behaviors responded differently to the low-intensity dietary intervention. People with high-risk behaviors were the least successful in…

Changing patterns of clinical malaria since 1965 among a tea estate population located in the Kenyan highlands*

PubMed Central

Shanks, G. D.; Biomndo, K.; Hay, S. I.; Snow, R. W.

2012-01-01

The changing epidemiology of clinical malaria since 1965 among hospitalized patients was studied at a group of tea estates in the western highlands of Kenya. These data indicate recent dramatic increases in the numbers of malaria admissions (6·5 to 32·5% of all admissions), case fatality (1·3 to 6%) and patients originating from low-risk, highland areas (34 to 59%). Climate change, environmental management, population migration, and breakdown in health service provision seem unlikely explanations for this changing disease pattern. The coincident arrival of chloroquine resistance during the late 1980s in the sub-region suggests that drug resistance is a key factor in the current pattern and burden of malaria among this highland population. PMID:10974991

Dietary patterns and weight change: 15-year longitudinal study in Australian adults.

PubMed

Arabshahi, Simin; Ibiebele, Torukiri I; Hughes, Maria Celia B; Lahmann, Petra H; Williams, Gail M; van der Pols, Jolieke C

2017-06-01

Dietary intake is one of the most modifiable risk factors associated with obesity. However, data on the relationship between dietary patterns and long-term weight change are limited. We therefore investigated the association between dietary patterns and 15-year weight change in a sample of 1186 Australian adults (1992-2007). We measured body weight and collected data on socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics in 1992 and 2007. Applying principal component analysis to 38 food groups from a food frequency questionnaire collected at baseline, we identified two dietary patterns: 'meat-and-fat' and 'fruit-and-vegetable.' Using generalized estimating equations, multivariable regression models, stratified by sex, were adjusted for concurrent changes in socio-demographic and lifestyle variables. The average increase in body weight of men in the highest tertile of the meat-and-fat pattern was more than twice that of men in the lowest tertile; mean weight change (95 % CI): 4.8 (-0.1, 9.7) kg versus 2.3 (-2.6, 7.1) kg, P-for-trend = 0.02. In contrast, average weight gain of men in the highest tertile of the fruit-and-vegetable pattern was only about half that of men in the lowest tertile; mean weight change (95 % CI): 2.9 (-2.0, 7.8) kg versus 5.4 (-1.5, 10.4) kg, P-for-trend = 0.02. Among women, dietary patterns were not related to weight change. These dietary patterns predict change in body weight in men, but not in women. In this cohort, a dietary pattern high in fruit and vegetables was related to less weight gain in men than a dietary pattern high in meat and fat.

Improving adherence to healthy dietary patterns, genetic risk, and long term weight gain: gene-diet interaction analysis in two prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Wang, Tiange; Heianza, Yoriko; Sun, Dianjianyi; Huang, Tao; Ma, Wenjie; Rimm, Eric B; Manson, JoAnn E; Hu, Frank B; Willett, Walter C; Qi, Lu

2018-01-10

To investigate whether improving adherence to healthy dietary patterns interacts with the genetic predisposition to obesity in relation to long term changes in body mass index and body weight. Prospective cohort study. Health professionals in the United States. 8828 women from the Nurses' Health Study and 5218 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Genetic predisposition score was calculated on the basis of 77 variants associated with body mass index. Dietary patterns were assessed by the Alternate Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010), Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH), and Alternate Mediterranean Diet (AMED). Five repeated measurements of four year changes in body mass index and body weight over follow-up (1986 to 2006). During a 20 year follow-up, genetic association with change in body mass index was significantly attenuated with increasing adherence to the AHEI-2010 in the Nurses' Health Study (P=0.001 for interaction) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (P=0.005 for interaction). In the combined cohorts, four year changes in body mass index per 10 risk allele increment were 0.07 (SE 0.02) among participants with decreased AHEI-2010 score and -0.01 (0.02) among those with increased AHEI-2010 score, corresponding to 0.16 (0.05) kg versus -0.02 (0.05) kg weight change every four years (P<0.001 for interaction). Viewed differently, changes in body mass index per 1 SD increment of AHEI-2010 score were -0.12 (0.01), -0.14 (0.01), and -0.18 (0.01) (weight change: -0.35 (0.03), -0.36 (0.04), and -0.50 (0.04) kg) among participants with low, intermediate, and high genetic risk, respectively. Similar interaction was also found for DASH but not for AMED. These data indicate that improving adherence to healthy dietary patterns could attenuate the genetic association with weight gain. Moreover, the beneficial effect of improved diet quality on weight management was particularly pronounced in people at high genetic risk for obesity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Changes in Coronary Heart Disease Risk Profile of Adults with Intellectual Disabilities following a Physical Activity Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moss, S. J.

2009-01-01

Background: Regular physical activity is one of the modifiable risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD). With an increasing age profile and similar patterns of morbidity to the general population, persons with intellectual disabilities (ID) and their caregivers would benefit from data that indicate CHD risk factors. Knowledge of the CHD risk…

Using temporal mining to examine the development of lymphedema in breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Green, Jason M; Paladugu, Sowjanya; Shuyu, Xu; Stewart, Bob R; Shyu, Chi-Ren; Armer, Jane M

2013-01-01

Secondary lymphedema is a lifetime risk for breast cancer survivors and can severely affect quality of life. Early detection and treatment are crucial for successful lymphedema management. Limb volume measurements can be utilized not only to diagnose lymphedema but also to track progression of limb volume changes before lymphedema, which has the potential to provide insight into the development of this condition. This study aims to identify commonly occurring patterns in limb volume changes in breast cancer survivors before the development of lymphedema and to determine if there were differences in these patterns between certain patient subgroups. Furthermore, pattern differences were studied between patients who developed lymphedema quickly and those whose onset was delayed. A temporal data mining technique was used to identify and compare common patterns in limb volume measurements in patient subgroups of study participants (n = 232). Patterns were filtered initially by support and confidence values, and then t tests were used to determine statistical significance of the remaining patterns. Higher body mass index and the presence of postoperative swelling are supported as risk factors for lymphedema. In addition, a difference in trajectory to the lymphedema state was observed. The results have potential to guide clinical guidelines for assessment of latent and early-onset lymphedema.

Cell-Mediated Immune Function and Cytokine Regulation During Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sams, Clarence F.; Pierson, Duane L.; Paloski, W. H. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The changes in immune function which occur during space flight potentially expose the crews to an increased risk for development of illness. Decreased cellular immune function has been repeatedly documented after space flight and confirmed during flight by in vivo delayed-type hypersensitivity testing. However, correlation of immune changes with a clinically significant risk factor has not yet been performed. Our hypothesis is that space flight induces a decrease in cell-mediated immune function accompanied by a shift from a type 1 cytokine pattern (favoring cell-mediated immunity) to a type 2 cytokine pattern (favoring humoral immunity). We further hypothesize that reactivation of latent viruses will occur during space flight in association with the decreased cellular immunity. To test these hypotheses, we will determine the effects of space flight on cell-mediated immunity and viral reactivation. We will utilize delayed-type hypersensitivity testing as an in vivo measure of integrated cell-mediated immune function. The production of cytokines and immunoregulatory factors by lymphocytes and monocytes will be measured to determine whether changes in cytokine patterns are associated with the space flight-induced immune dysregulation. Correlation of antigen-specific immune changes with reactivation of latent herpes viruses will be determined by measuring peripheral levels of viral (CMV, VZV, EBV) antigen-specific T cells and comparing to the levels of EBV-infected B-cells by fluorescence in situ hybridization and flow cytometry. A comparison of cell-mediated immune function, cytokine regulation and viral reactivation will provide new insights into crew member health risks during flight.

Association between dietary pattern and cardiometabolic risk in children and adolescents: a systematic review.

PubMed

Rocha, Naruna Pereira; Milagres, Luana Cupertino; Longo, Giana Zarbato; Ribeiro, Andréia Queiroz; Novaes, Juliana Farias de

To evaluate the association between dietary patterns and cardiometabolic risk factors in children and adolescents. This article followed the recommendations of PRISMA, which aims to guide review publications in the health area. The article search strategy included searches in the electronic databases MEDLINE via PubMed, Scopus, and LILACS. There was no date limitation for publications. The descriptors were used in English according to MeSH and in Portuguese according to DeCS. Only articles on dietary patterns extracted by the a posteriori methodology were included. The question to be answered was: how much can an "unhealthy" dietary pattern influence biochemical and inflammatory markers in this population? The studies showed an association between dietary patterns and cardiometabolic alterations. The patterns were characterized as unhealthy when associated to the consumption of ultraprocessed products, poor in fiber and rich in sodium, fat, and refined carbohydrates. Despite the associations, in several studies, the strength of this association for some risk markers was reduced or lost after adjusting for confounding variables. There was a positive association between "unhealthy" dietary patterns and cardiometabolic alterations in children and adolescents. Some unconfirmed associations may be related to the difficulty of assessing food consumption. Nevertheless, studies involving dietary patterns and their association with risk factors should be performed in children and adolescents, aiming at interventions and early changes in dietary habits considered to be inadequate. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda.

Effects of climate change on landslide hazard in Europe (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadim, F.; Solheim, A.

2009-12-01

Landslides represent a major threat to human life, property and constructed facilities, infrastructure and natural environment in most mountainous and hilly regions of the world. As a consequence of climatic changes and potential global warming, an increase of landslide activity is expected in some parts of the world in the future. This will be due to increased extreme rainfall events, changes of hydrological cycles, meteorological events followed by sea storms causing coastal erosion and melting of snow and of frozen soils in the high mountains. During the past century, Europe experienced many fatalities and significant economic losses due to landslides. Since in many parts of Europe landslides are the most serious natural hazard, several recent European research projects are looking into the effects of climate change on the risk associated with landslides. Examples are the recently initiated SafeLand project, which looks into this problem across the continent, and GeoExtreme, which focused on Norway. The ongoing project SafeLand (www.safeland-fp7.eu) is a large, integrating project financed by the European Commission. It involves close to 30 organizations from 13 countries in Europe, and it looks into the effects of global change (mainly changes in demography and climate change) on the pattern of landslide risk in Europe. The SafeLand objectives are to (1) provide policy-makers, public administrators, researchers, scientists, educators and other stakeholders with improved harmonized framework and methodology for the assessment and quantification of landslide risk in Europe's regions; (2) evaluate the changes in risk pattern caused by climate change, human activity and policy changes; and (3) provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate risk management strategies, including risk mitigation and prevention measures. To assess the changes in the landslide risk pattern in Norway over the next 50 years, the four-year integrated research project GeoExtreme (www.geoextreme.no) was executed. Different modules of the project established the database of landslide and avalanche events in Norway, investigated the coupling between climatic parameters and the occurrence of avalanches and landslides, developed regional, down-scaled climate scenarios for the next 50 years, and simulated a picture of possible future geohazards risk in Norway. The socioeconomic implications of geohazards in Norway, both in the past, and under the predicted future climate scenarios were also studied in the project. The latter study considered the costs related to damage by natural disasters and mitigation measures, ability to learn by experience, changes in preparedness, and impact of policy decisions. The main conclusion of the GeoExtreme project was that in a country with large climatic variation like Norway, the effects of climate change on the geohazard situation will vary significantly from location to location. Over a short time interval of 50 years, the largest increase in the direct socio-economic costs will most likely be in the transport sector. However, better adaptation to the present climate and geohazard problems would also require large investments, and this would in fact be the most important step in preparing for the expected changes during the next 50 years.

Risk/Protective Factors for Alcohol Use among Hispanic and White Teenagers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Felix-Ortiz, Maria; Newcomb, Michael D.

Changing alcohol and drug use patterns among women and ethnic minorities, such as the over-representation of Hispanics in alcohol-related deaths, drunk driving arrests, and treatment facilities, emphasize the importance of understanding substance use patterns in these populations. This study attempted to identify a single cause of substance abuse…

Patterns of participation over four rounds of annual fecal immunochemical test-based screening for colorectal cancer: what predicts rescreening?

PubMed

Osborne, Joanne M; Wilson, Carlene; Duncan, Amy; Cole, Stephen R; Flight, Ingrid; Turnbull, Deborah; Hughes, Donna L; Young, Graeme P

2017-08-01

Participation at the recommended intervals is critical for screening to be effective in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence. This study describes patterns of screening participation over four rounds of fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) to identify whether demographic variables and prior screening satisfaction are significantly associated with patterns of re-participation. Baseline surveys were mailed to 4000 South Australians randomly selected from the electoral-roll. Respondents (n = 1928/48.2%) were offered four annual FIT rounds. Screening participation and satisfaction at each round were recorded. Study participation was 58.5, 66.9, 73.1 and 71.4% respectively over four rounds. Three participation patterns were described: consistent participation (43.1%), consistent non-participation (26.4%) and inconsistent participation (changeable; 30.5%), including intermittent and sustained change patterns. Sustained change described those who changed participatory behavior and then maintained for at least two rounds (n = 375/19.5%). Older people, and those not working were most likely to sustain participation. Younger invitees, especially men, were more likely to change participatory behavior and sustain the change. People with higher disadvantage, less education, not working and with no prior (pre-trial) screening experience were more likely to start participating and drop out. People dissatisfied with a prior screening test, including finding aspects embarrassing or unpleasant, were also more likely not to participate in annual screening or to drop out. The findings identify those at risk of non- or inconsistent participation in rescreening. They should aid targeting of interventions for demographic groups at risk and ensuring screening experiences are not perceived as unpleasant or difficult.

AIDS and behavioral change to reduce risk: a review.

PubMed Central

Becker, M H; Joseph, J G

1988-01-01

Published reports describing behavioral changes in response to the threat of AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) are reviewed. These studies demonstrate rapid, profound, but expectably incomplete alterations in the behavior of both homosexual/bisexual males and intravenous drug users. This is true in the highest risk metropolitan areas such as New York City and in areas with lower AIDS incidence. Risk reduction is occurring more frequently through the modification of sexual or drug-use behavior than through its elimination. In contrast to aggregate data, longitudinal descriptions of individual behavior demonstrate considerable instability or recidivism. Behavioral change in the potentially vulnerable heterosexual adolescent and young adult populations is less common, as is risk reduction among urban minorities. Reports of AIDS-related knowledge and attitudes generally parallel the pattern of behavioral changes. Nonetheless, few studies investigate the relationship of knowledge and attitudes to risk reduction. Future studies should provide much-needed information about the determinants as well as the magnitude of behavioral changes required to reduce the further spread of AIDS. PMID:3279837

Precipitation Based Malaria Patterns in the Amazon -- Will Deforestation Alter Risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, S. H.; Durieux, L.; Elguero, E.; Foley, J.; Gagnon, R.; Guegan, J.; Patz, J.

2007-12-01

The World Health Organization, estimates that forty-two percent of malaria cases are "associated with policies and practices regarding land use, deforestation, water resource management, settlement siting and modified house design". This estimate was drawn from expert opinion and studies performed at local scales, but little research has investigated the cumulative impacts of land use and land cover changes occurring in the Amazon Basin on malaria. Much less is understood about the impact of changing land use and subsequent precipitation regimes on malaria risk. To understand how land use practices may alter malaria patterns in the Basin we present an analysis of municipio (n=755) malaria case data and monthly precipitation patterns between 1996 and 1999. Climate data originated from the CRU TS 2.1 half-degree grid resolution climate data set. We present a hierarchical (random coefficients) log-linear Poisson model relating malaria incidence to precipitation for both municipos and states. At the Basin scale precipitation and cases show strong relationships. Precipitation and cases are asynchronous across the period of observation, but detailed inspection of states and individual municipios reveal geographic dependencies of precipitation and malaria incidence. Future research will link the patterns of precipitation and malaria to anticipated changes in climate from deforestation in the Basin.

Dietary Patterns Exhibit Sex-Specific Associations with Adiposity and Metabolic Risk in a Cross-Sectional Study in Urban Mexican Adolescents.

PubMed

Perng, Wei; Fernandez, Carmen; Peterson, Karen E; Zhang, ZhenZhen; Cantoral, Alejandra; Sanchez, Brisa N; Solano-González, Maritsa; Téllez-Rojo, Martha Maria; Baylin, Ana

2017-10-01

Background: Studies in Western nations have shown associations of certain dietary patterns with obesity and metabolic risk in youth. Little is known about these relations in newly industrialized countries where obesity prevalence is surpassing those of developed countries. Objective: We sought to characterize dietary patterns in a cross-sectional study in 224 adolescents aged 8-14 y in Mexico and to investigate associations of the dietary patterns with adiposity and metabolic risk. Methods: We used principal components analysis to derive dietary patterns from food-frequency questionnaire data. By using linear regression models that accounted for mother's marital status, education, and smoking habits and child's age and physical activity, we examined associations of the dietary patterns with adiposity [body mass index z score, waist circumference, the sum and ratio of the subscapular and triceps skinfold thicknesses, blood pressure, serum fasting glucose and a C-peptide-based measure of insulin resistance (CP-IR), lipid profile, and a metabolic syndrome risk z score (MetS z score)]. Results: We identified a "prudent" dietary pattern characterized by high intakes of vegetables, fruit, fish, chicken, and legumes and a "transitioning" dietary pattern, which comprises processed meats, Mexican foods, and sweetened beverages. Each unit increase in the prudent pattern factor score corresponded with 0.33 ng/mL (95% CI: 0.09, 0.57 ng/mL) lower C-peptide, 0.08 units (95% CI: 0.02, 0.13 units) lower CP-IR, and a 0.14 unit (0.00, 0.27 unit) lower MetS z score in boys. In girls, the transitioning pattern corresponded with higher subscapular + triceps skinfold thickness (per 1-unit increase in the factor score: 2.46 mm; 95% CI: 0.10, 4.81 mm). These results did not change after accounting for pubertal status. Conclusions: A prudent dietary pattern was protective against metabolic risk in adolescent boys, whereas a transitioning dietary pattern corresponded with higher adiposity among adolescent girls. Given that adolescence is a key developmental period for long-term health, efforts to elucidate dietary determinants of metabolic risk during this life stage may have long-term benefits. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Advanced brain aging: relationship with epidemiologic and genetic risk factors, and overlap with Alzheimer disease atrophy patterns.

PubMed

Habes, M; Janowitz, D; Erus, G; Toledo, J B; Resnick, S M; Doshi, J; Van der Auwera, S; Wittfeld, K; Hegenscheid, K; Hosten, N; Biffar, R; Homuth, G; Völzke, H; Grabe, H J; Hoffmann, W; Davatzikos, C

2016-04-05

We systematically compared structural imaging patterns of advanced brain aging (ABA) in the general-population, herein defined as significant deviation from typical BA to those found in Alzheimer disease (AD). The hypothesis that ABA would show different patterns of structural change compared with those found in AD was tested via advanced pattern analysis methods. In particular, magnetic resonance images of 2705 participants from the Study of Health in Pomerania (aged 20-90 years) were analyzed using an index that captures aging atrophy patterns (Spatial Pattern of Atrophy for Recognition of BA (SPARE-BA)), and an index previously shown to capture atrophy patterns found in clinical AD (Spatial Patterns of Abnormality for Recognition of Early Alzheimer's Disease (SPARE-AD)). We studied the association between these indices and risk factors, including an AD polygenic risk score. Finally, we compared the ABA-associated atrophy with typical AD-like patterns. We observed that SPARE-BA had significant association with: smoking (P<0.05), anti-hypertensive (P<0.05), anti-diabetic drug use (men P<0.05, women P=0.06) and waist circumference for the male cohort (P<0.05), after adjusting for age. Subjects with ABA had spatially extensive gray matter loss in the frontal, parietal and temporal lobes (false-discovery-rate-corrected q<0.001). ABA patterns of atrophy were partially overlapping with, but notably deviating from those typically found in AD. Subjects with ABA had higher SPARE-AD values; largely due to the partial spatial overlap of associated patterns in temporal regions. The AD polygenic risk score was significantly associated with SPARE-AD but not with SPARE-BA. Our findings suggest that ABA is likely characterized by pathophysiologic mechanisms that are distinct from, or only partially overlapping with those of AD.

The impact of direct-to-consumer personal genomic testing on perceived risk of breast, prostate, colorectal, and lung cancer: findings from the PGen study.

PubMed

Carere, Deanna Alexis; VanderWeele, Tyler; Moreno, Tanya A; Mountain, Joanna L; Roberts, J Scott; Kraft, Peter; Green, Robert C

2015-10-15

Direct access to genomic information has the potential to transform cancer risk counseling. We measured the impact of direct-to-consumer genomic risk information on changes to perceived risk (ΔPR) of breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancer among personal genomic testing (PGT) customers. We hypothesized that ΔPR would reflect directionality of risk estimates, attenuate with time, and be modified by participant characteristics. Pathway Genomics and 23andMe customers were surveyed prior to receiving PGT results, and 2 weeks and 6 months post-results. For each cancer, PR was measured on a 5-point ordinal scale from "much lower than average" to "much higher than average." PGT results, based on genotyping of common genetic variants, were dichotomized as elevated or average risk. The relationship between risk estimate and ΔPR was evaluated with linear regression; generalized estimating equations modeled this relationship over time. With the exception of lung cancer (for which ΔPR was positive regardless of result), elevated risk results were significantly associated with positive ΔPR, and average risk results with negative ΔPR (e.g., prostate cancer, 2 weeks: least squares-adjusted ΔPR = 0.77 for elevated risk versus -0.21 for average risk; p-valuedifference < 0.0001) among 1154 participants. Large changes were rare: for each cancer, <4 % of participants overall reported a ΔPR of ±3 or more units. Effect modification by age, cancer family history, and baseline interest was observed for breast, colorectal, and lung cancer, respectively. A pattern of decreasing impact on ΔPR over time was consistently observed, but this trend was significant only in the case of colorectal cancer. We have quantified the effect on consumer risk perception of returning genetic-based cancer risk information directly to consumers without clinician mediation. Provided via PGT, this information has a measurable but modest effect on perceived cancer risk, and one that is in some cases modified by consumers' non-genetic risk context. Our observations of modest marginal effect sizes, infrequent extreme changes in perceived risk, and a pattern of diminishing impact with time, suggest that the ability of PGT to effect changes to cancer screening and prevention behaviors may be limited by relatively small changes to perceived risk.

Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy.

PubMed

Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Alcasena, Fermin J; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Spano, Donatella

2015-01-01

In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame length were observed in late July. We found that patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity were mainly related to spatiotemporal variation in ignition locations, fuel moisture, and wind vectors. Our modeling approach allowed consideration of historical patterns of winds, ignition locations, and live and dead fuel moisture on fire exposure factors. The methodology proposed can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for addressing and informing fuel management and risk mitigation issues.

Identifying Learning Patterns of Children at Risk for Specific Reading Disability

PubMed Central

Barbot, Baptiste; Krivulskaya, Suzanna; Hein, Sascha; Reich, Jodi; Thuma, Philip E.; Grigorenko, Elena L.

2016-01-01

Differences in learning patterns of vocabulary acquisition in children at risk (+SRD) and not at risk (SRD) for Specific Reading Disability (SRD) were examined using a microdevelopmental paradigm applied to the multi-trial Foreign Language Learning Task (FLLT; Baddeley et al., 1995). The FLLT was administered to 905 children from rural Chitonga-speaking Zambia. A multi-group Latent Growth Curve Model (LGCM) was implemented to study interindividual differences in intraindividual change across trials. Results showed that the +SRD group recalled fewer words correctly in the first trial, learned at a slower rate during the subsequent trials, and demonstrated a more linear learning pattern compared to the SRD group. This study illustrates the promise of LGCM applied to multi-trial learning tasks, by isolating three components of the learning process (initial recall, rate of learning, and functional pattern of learning). Implications of this microdevelopmental approach to SRD research in low-to-middle income countries are discussed. PMID:26037654

Identifying learning patterns of children at risk for Specific Reading Disability.

PubMed

Barbot, Baptiste; Krivulskaya, Suzanna; Hein, Sascha; Reich, Jodi; Thuma, Philip E; Grigorenko, Elena L

2016-05-01

Differences in learning patterns of vocabulary acquisition in children at risk (+SRD) and not at risk (-SRD) for Specific Reading Disability (SRD) were examined using a microdevelopmental paradigm applied to the multi-trial Foreign Language Learning Task (FLLT; Baddeley et al., 1995). The FLLT was administered to 905 children from rural Chitonga-speaking Zambia. A multi-group Latent Growth Curve Model (LGCM) was implemented to study interindividual differences in intraindividual change across trials. Results showed that the +SRD group recalled fewer words correctly in the first trial, learned at a slower rate during the subsequent trials, and demonstrated a more linear learning pattern compared to the -SRD group. This study illustrates the promise of LGCM applied to multi-trial learning tasks, by isolating three components of the learning process (initial recall, rate of learning, and functional pattern of learning). Implications of this microdevelopmental approach to SRD research in low-to-middle income countries are discussed. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changing livestock vaccination policy alters the epidemiology of human anthrax, Georgia, 2000-2013.

PubMed

Kracalik, Ian; Malania, Lile; Broladze, Mariam; Navdarashvili, Archil; Imnadze, Paata; Ryan, Sadie J; Blackburn, Jason K

2017-11-01

Anthrax is a widely spread zoonotic disease found on nearly every continent. To control the disease in humans and animals, annual livestock vaccination is recommended. However, in 2007, the country of Georgia ended its policy of compulsory annual livestock anthrax vaccination. Our objective was to assess how the epidemiology of human anthrax has evolved from 2000-2013 in Georgia, in the wake of this cessation. We used passive surveillance data on epidemiological surveys of human anthrax case patients. Risk factors and rates of self-reported sources of infection were compared, before and after the change in livestock vaccination policy. We mapped ethnicity-adjusted incidence during the two periods and assessed changes in the spatial pattern of risk. The overall risk of human anthrax increased >5-fold, from 0.7 cases per 100,000 in 2000 to 3.7 cases per 100,000 by 2013. Ethnic disparities in risk became pronounced; from 2000 to 2013, incidence increased >60-fold in Azerbaijanis from 0.35 to 21.1 cases/100,000 Azerbaijanis compared to 0.61 to 1.9 cases/100,000 among ethnic Georgians. Food-borne exposures from purchasing meat increased from 11% in 2000-2006 to 21% in 2007-2013. Spatial analyses revealed a shift from a random pattern of reporting pre-policy change to clustering among district municipalities following the change in policy. Our findings indicate there were unintended human health consequences associated with changing livestock vaccination policy. Following a reduction in the immunizations administered, there was a major shift in the epidemiology of human anthrax in Georgia. Current infection risk is now highest among ethnic minorities. Increased reporting among individuals uncharacteristically at risk for anthrax from foodborne exposures suggests spillover from modes of agricultural production. Given the importance of human-livestock health linkages, careful evaluations of policy need to be undertaken before changes to animal vaccination are made. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate pluvial floods risk under changing climate: The case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy).

PubMed

Sperotto, A; Torresan, S; Gallina, V; Coppola, E; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2016-08-15

Global climate change is likely to pose increasing threats in nearly all sectors and across all sub-regions worldwide (IPCC, 2014). Particularly, extreme weather events (e.g. heavy precipitations), together with changing exposure and vulnerability patterns, are expected to increase the damaging effect of storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding. Developing climate and adaptation services for local planners and decision makers is becoming essential to transfer and communicate sound scientific knowledge about climate related risks and foster the development of national, regional and local adaptation strategies. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on pluvial flood risk and advice adaptation planning, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice. Based on the integrated analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk, RRA allows identifying and prioritizing targets and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood risk due to heavy precipitation events in the future scenario 2041-2050. From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the requests, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. Results of the analysis showed that all targets (i.e. residential, commercial-industrial areas and infrastructures) are vulnerable to pluvial floods due to the high impermeability and low slope of the topography. The spatial pattern of risk mostly reflects the distribution of the hazard and the districts with the higher percentage of receptors' surface in the higher risk classes (i.e. very high, high and medium) are Lido-Pellestrina and Marghera. The paper discusses how risk-based maps and statistics integrate scientific and local knowledge with the final aim to mainstream climate adaptation in the development of risk mitigation and urban plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implications for U.S. trade and nonindigenous species risk resulting from increased economic integration of the Asia-Pacific Region

Treesearch

Amanda M. Countryman; Travis Warziniack; Erin Grey

2018-01-01

This work investigates how potential changes in trade patterns resulting from increased economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region may affect the risk for nonindigenous species spread to the United States. We construct an invasion risk index utilizing the results from a global economic modeling framework in tandem with data for climate similarities between trade...

Wildfire disturbance, erosion and sedimentation risks following the Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, K.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Chin, A.; Florsheim, J. L.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.

2016-12-01

Wildfire is a landscape-scale disturbance that causes abrupt changes to hydrological responses and sediment flux during subsequent storms. Burning hillslope vegetation during wildfires induces changes to sediment supply and stream flow magnitude. Altered post-fire processes such as channel erosion and sedimentation or flooding enhance downstream hazards that may threaten human populations and physical aquatic habitat over various time scales. Using data from a small drainage basin (Williams Canyon, 4.7 km2) in the Colorado front range burned by the 2012 Waldo Fire as a case study, we investigate post-fire recovery and assess changes in fire-related risks to downstream areas. Our local ground-based precipitation, field measurements, terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning together with satellite-based remote sensing data (i.e. Landsat) provide a basis for time series analyses of reach-scale erosion and sedimentation response to rainfall patterns as vegetation patterns change following the wildfire. As a first step in quantifying the likelihood and consequences of specific risk scenarios, we examine changes in the combined probability of storm flows and post-fire erosion and sedimentation as vegetation recovers within the study watershed. We explore possible feedbacks and thresholds related to vegetation-hydrology-sediment interactions following wildfire under changing climate regimes. This information is needed to assist in post-fire management to promote sustainability of wildland fluvial systems.

Western forest, fire risk, and climate change

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

Western forests, fire risk, and climate change.

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watson, A.; Butheau, M.; Sandor, D.

Colombia's economy has grown more than 4 percent per year for a decade, but climate change is posing new risks to sustaining that development. With the nation's coastal areas, mountain ranges, rain forests, plains, and river basins vulnerable to changing weather patterns and growing seasons, Colombia is building resilience to climate change while working to curb emissions and pursue new options for low emission development.

Patterns and distribution of HIV among adult men and women in India.

PubMed

Perkins, Jessica M; Khan, Kashif T; Subramanian, S V

2009-05-21

While the estimated prevalence of HIV in India experienced a downward revision in 2007, the patterning and distribution of HIV in the population remains unclear. We examined the individual and state-level socioeconomic patterning of individual HIV status among adult men and women in India as well as the patterning of other individual demographic and behavioral determinants of HIV status. We conducted logistic regression models accounting for the survey design using nationally representative, cross-sectional data on 100,030 women and men from the 2005-2006 India National Family Health survey which, for the first time, provided objective assessments of HIV seroprevalence. Although there was a weak relationship between household wealth and risk of being HIV-positive, there was a clear negative relationship between individual education attainment and risk of being HIV-positive among both men and women. A 1000 Rupee change in the per capita net state domestic product was associated with a 4% and 5% increase in the risk for positive HIV status among men and women, respectively. State-level income inequality was associated with increased risk of HIV for men. Marital status and selected sexual behavior indicators were significant predictors of HIV status among women whereas the age effect was the most dominant predictor of HIV infection among men. Although the prevalence of HIV in India is low, the lack of strong wealth patterning in the risk of HIV suggests a more generalized distribution of HIV risk than some of India's high-risk group HIV prevention policies have assumed. The positive association between state economic development and individual risk for HIV is intriguing and requires further scrutiny.

College students' drinking patterns: trajectories of AUDIT scores during the first four years at university.

PubMed

Johnsson, Kent O; Leifman, Anders; Berglund, Mats

2008-01-01

Changes in AUDIT score trajectories were examined in a student population during their first 4 years at a university, including high-risk consumers and a subsample of low-risk consumers. 359 students were selected for the present study, comprising all high-risk consumers (the 27% with highest scores, i.e. 11 for males and 7 for females) and a randomized sample of low-risk consumers (n = 177 and 182, respectively). The Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) was used as screening instrument. Trajectory analyses were made using a semiparametric group-based model. In the low-AUDIT group, five distinct trajectories were identified: three stable non-risky consumption groups (83%) and two increasing groups (17%; from non-risky to risky). In the high-AUDIT group, three groups were identified: two stable high groups (58%) and one decreasing group (from risky to non-risky consumption; 41%). In the integrated model, stable risky consumption comprised 16% of the total sample, decreasing consumption 11%, increasing consumption comprised 13% and stable non-risky consumption 60% of the sample. Gender influenced the trajectories. The pattern of changes in risk consumption is similar to that found in corresponding US studies. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales.

PubMed

Beever, Erik A; Dobrowski, S Z; Long, J; Mynsberge, A R; Piekielek, N B

2013-07-01

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994-1999 and 2003-2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation,and climate at ecoregional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik A.; Solomon Dubrowski,; ,; ,; J. Long,; ,; A. Mysnberge,; Piekielek, N. B.

2014-01-01

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species’ distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994–1999 and 2003–2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

Educational Differences in U.S. Adult Mortality: A Cohort Perspective*

PubMed Central

Masters, Ryan K.; Hummer, Robert A.; Powers, Daniel A.

2014-01-01

We use hierarchical cross-classified random-effects models to simultaneously measure age, period, and cohort patterns of mortality risk between 1986 and 2006 for non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black men and women with less than a high school education, a high school education, and more than a high school education. We examine all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease, lung cancer, and unpreventable cancers. Findings reveal that temporal reductions in black and white men’s and women’s mortality rates were driven entirely by cohort changes in mortality. Findings also demonstrate that disparate cohort effects between education groups widened the education gap in all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease and lung cancer across this time period. Educational disparities in mortality risk from unpreventable cancers, however, did not change. This research uncovers widening educational differences in adult mortality and demonstrates that a cohort perspective provides valuable insights for understanding recent temporal changes in U.S. mortality risk. PMID:25346542

Predicting patterns of vulnerability to climate change in near coastal species using an algorithm-based risk assessment framework

EPA Science Inventory

Near-coastal (0-200 depth) ecosystems and species are under threat from increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. However, species vary in their vulnerability to specific climatic changes and climate impacts will vary geographically. For management to resp...

Patterns and Determinants of Temporal Change in High-sensitivity Cardiac Troponin-T: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Cohort Study

PubMed Central

McEvoy, John W; Lazo, Mariana; Chen, Yuan; Shen, Lu; Nambi, Vijay; Hoogeveen, Ron C; Ballantyne, Christie M; Blumenthal, Roger S; Coresh, Josef; Selvin, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Background Patterns and determinants of temporal change in highly-sensitivity troponin-T (hs-cTNT), a novel measure of subclinical myocardial injury, among asymptomatic persons have not been well characterized. Methods We studied 8,571 ARIC Study participants, free of cardiovascular disease, who had hs-cTNT measured at two time-points, 6 years apart (1990–1992 and 1996–1998). We examined the association of baseline 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular (ASCVD) risk-group (<5%, 5–7.4%, ≥7.5%) and individual cardiac risk-factors with change across hs-cTNT categories using Poisson and Multinomial Logistic regression and with mean continuous hs-cTNT change using linear regression. Results Mean age was 57 years and 43% were male. Mean (SD) 6-year hs-cTNT change was higher across increasing ASCVD risk-groups; +1.2 (6.1) ng/L [<5%], +2.1 (5.4) ng/L [5–7.4%], and +2.8 (8.8) ng/L [≥7.5%]. Major baseline determinants of temporal hs-cTNT increases were; age, male gender, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. In addition, the relative risk (RR) of incident elevated hs-cTNT (≥14ng/L) was 1.46 (95% CI 1.1–2.0) for persons with sustained hypertension compared to those who remained normotensive. Results for sustained obesity (RR 1.65 [1.19–2.29]) and hyperglycemia (RR 1.76 [1.16–2.67]) were similar. These associations were generally stronger after accounting for survival bias. However, smoking, LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides were not associated with hs-cTNT change. HDL-cholesterol was associated with declining hs-cTNT. Conclusions Persons in higher ASCVD risk-groups were more likely to have increases in hs-cTNT over 6 years of follow-up. The modifiable risk-factors primarily driving this association were diabetes, hypertension, and obesity; particularly when they were persistently elevated over follow-up. Future studies are needed to determine whether modifying these risk factors can prevent progression of subclinical myocardial injury. PMID:25880403

Scale-dependence of desease impacts on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) mortality risk in the southwestern U.S.

Treesearch

David M. Bell; John B. Bradford; William K. Lauenroth

2015-01-01

Depending on how disease impacts tree exposure to risk, both the prevalence of disease and disease effects on survival may contribute to patterns of mortality risk across a species’ range. Disease may accelerate tree species’ declines in response to global change factors, such as drought, biotic interactions, such as competition, or functional traits, such as allometry...

Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

PubMed

Tomasek, Bradley J; Williams, Martin M; Davis, Adam S

2017-01-01

As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

The diurnal variation in urine acidification differs between normal individuals and uric acid stone formers

PubMed Central

Cameron, Mary Ann; Maalouf, Naim M.; Poindexter, John; Adams-Huet, Beverley; Sakhaee, Khashayar; Moe, Orson W.

2012-01-01

Many biologic functions follow circadian rhythms driven by internal and external cues that synchronize and coordinate organ physiology to diurnal changes in the environment and behavior. Urinary acid-base parameters follow diurnal patterns and it is thought these changes are due to periodic surges in gastric acid secretion. Abnormal urine pH is a risk factor for specific types of nephrolithiasis and uric acid stones are typical of excessively low urine pH. Here we placed 9 healthy volunteers and 10 uric acid stone formers on fixed metabolic diets to study the diurnal pattern of urinary acidification. All showed clear diurnal trends in urinary acidification but none of the patterns were affected by inhibitors of the gastric proton pump. Uric acid stone formers had similar patterns of change through the day but their urine pH was always lower compared to healthy volunteers. Uric acid stone formers excreted more acid (normalized to acid ingestion) with the excess excreted primarily as titratable acid rather than ammonium. Urine base excretion was also lower in uric acid stone formers (normalized to base ingestion) along with lower plasma bicarbonate concentrations during part of the day. Thus, increased net acid presentation to the kidney and the preferential use of buffers, other than ammonium, result in much higher concentrations of un-dissociated uric acid throughout the day and consequently an increased risk of uric acid stones. PMID:22297671

Changes in Eating and Physical Activity Behaviors across Seven Semesters of College: Living on or off Campus Matters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Small, Meg; Bailey-Davis, Lisa; Morgan, Nicole; Maggs, Jennifer

2013-01-01

The transition from adolescence to adulthood is an important period for establishing behavioral patterns that affect long-term health and chronic disease risk. Nelson and colleagues speculated that developmental changes and changes in living situation may play an important role in the nutrition and physical activity behaviors of college students.…

Assessing Climate Change Perceptions, Management Strategies, and Information Needs for Indiana Agricultural and Forestry Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherkauer, K. A.; Chin, N.

2016-12-01

The agricultural and forestry sectors in the state of Indiana are highly dependent on climate and, subsequently, highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Higher temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns, more widespread prevalence of pests and pathogens, and increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events could all have negative effects on these two sectors in the future. Agricultural and forest producers are already modifying their management strategies in response to perceptions of changes in climate risk, but such responses have been primarily reactive in nature and, in many cases, demonstrate a disconnect between scientific findings and stakeholder perceptions of the greatest climate risks. This research has been conducted to help improve understanding of climate change risks to agriculture and forestry in Indiana; stakeholder perceptions of climate risks and their current management strategies; and the effectiveness of these management strategies for dealing with current and future climate risk. Sector-specific focus groups, expert panel assessments and surveys have all been utilized in this work, which will also contribute to the new Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment report.

A multiphase non-linear mixed effects model: An application to spirometry after lung transplantation.

PubMed

Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Blackstone, Eugene H

2017-02-01

In medical sciences, we often encounter longitudinal temporal relationships that are non-linear in nature. The influence of risk factors may also change across longitudinal follow-up. A system of multiphase non-linear mixed effects model is presented to model temporal patterns of longitudinal continuous measurements, with temporal decomposition to identify the phases and risk factors within each phase. Application of this model is illustrated using spirometry data after lung transplantation using readily available statistical software. This application illustrates the usefulness of our flexible model when dealing with complex non-linear patterns and time-varying coefficients.

Protect Thy Neighbor: Investigating the Spatial Externalities of Community Wildfire Hazard Mitigation

Treesearch

David Butry; Geoffrey Donovan

2008-01-01

Climate change, increased wildland fuels, and residential development patterns in fire-prone areas all combine to make wildfire risk mitigation an important public policy issue. One approach to wildfire risk mitigation is to encourage homeowners to use fire-resistant building materials and to create defensible spaces around their homes. We develop a theoretical model...

[Telephone consultations on exposure to nuclear disaster radiation].

PubMed

Yashima, Sachiko; Chida, Koichi

2014-03-01

The Fukushima nuclear disaster occurred on March 11, 2011. For about six weeks, I worked as a counselor for phone consultations regarding radiation risk. I analyzed the number of consultations, consultations by telephone, and their changing patterns with elapse of time, to assist with consultations about risk in the future. There were a large number of questions regarding the effects of radiation, particularly with regard to children. We believe that counseling and risk communication are the key to effectively informing the public about radiation risks.

Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk

PubMed Central

Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C.; Brooks, Thomas M.; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C.; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H.

2017-01-01

Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species’ trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally. PMID:29145486

Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

PubMed

Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

2017-01-01

Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

Influence of Running on Pistol Shot Hit Patterns.

PubMed

Kerkhoff, Wim; Bolck, Annabel; Mattijssen, Erwin J A T

2016-01-01

In shooting scene reconstructions, risk assessment of the situation can be important for the legal system. Shooting accuracy and precision, and thus risk assessment, might be correlated with the shooter's physical movement and experience. The hit patterns of inexperienced and experienced shooters, while shooting stationary (10 shots) and in running motion (10 shots) with a semi-automatic pistol, were compared visually (with confidence ellipses) and statistically. The results show a significant difference in precision (circumference of the hit patterns) between stationary shots and shots fired in motion for both inexperienced and experienced shooters. The decrease in precision for all shooters was significantly larger in the y-direction than in the x-direction. The precision of the experienced shooters is overall better than that of the inexperienced shooters. No significant change in accuracy (shift in the hit pattern center) between stationary shots and shots fired in motion can be seen for all shooters. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Using topic coding to understand the nature of change language in a motivational intervention to reduce alcohol and sex risk behaviors in emergency department patients.

PubMed

Kahler, Christopher W; Caswell, Amy J; Laws, M Barton; Walthers, Justin; Magill, Molly; Mastroleo, Nadine R; Howe, Chanelle J; Souza, Timothy; Wilson, Ira; Bryant, Kendall; Monti, Peter M

2016-10-01

To elucidate patient language that supports changing a health behavior (change talk) or sustaining the behavior (sustain talk). We developed a novel coding system to characterize topics of patient speech in a motivational intervention targeting alcohol and HIV/sexual risk in 90 Emergency Department patients. We further coded patient language as change or sustain talk. For both alcohol and sex, discussions focusing on benefits of behavior change or change planning were most likely to involve change talk, and these topics comprised a large portion of all change talk. Greater discussion of barriers and facilitators of change also was associated with more change talk. For alcohol use, benefits of drinking behavior was the most common topic of sustain talk. For sex risk, benefits of sexual behavior were rarely discussed, and sustain talk centered more on patterns and contexts, negations of drawbacks, and drawbacks of sexual risk behavior change. Topic coding provided unique insights into the content of patient change and sustain talk. Patients are most likely to voice change talk when conversation focuses on behavior change rather than ongoing behavior. Interventions addressing multiple health behaviors should address the unique motivations for maintaining specific risky behaviors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Promoting Sustainable Economic Growth in Mexico (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watson, A.; Butheau, M.; Sandor, D.

2013-11-01

Mexico is the second largest economy in Latin America, with rapid growth occurring in the industrial and services sectors. A forward-thinking country on climate change, the nation recognizes that the threat of higher temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and more frequent weather-related disasters could pose a substantial risk to its expanding economy.

Patterns in longitudinal growth of refraction in Southern Chinese children: cluster and principal component analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Yanxian; Chang, Billy Heung Wing; Ding, Xiaohu; He, Mingguang

2016-11-22

In the present study we attempt to use hypothesis-independent analysis in investigating the patterns in refraction growth in Chinese children, and to explore the possible risk factors affecting the different components of progression, as defined by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). A total of 637 first-born twins in Guangzhou Twin Eye Study with 6-year annual visits (baseline age 7-15 years) were available in the analysis. Cluster 1 to 3 were classified after a partitioning clustering, representing stable, slow and fast progressing groups of refraction respectively. Baseline age and refraction, paternal refraction, maternal refraction and proportion of two myopic parents showed significant differences across the three groups. Three major components of progression were extracted using PCA: "Average refraction", "Acceleration" and the combination of "Myopia stabilization" and "Late onset of refraction progress". In regression models, younger children with more severe myopia were associated with larger "Acceleration". The risk factors of "Acceleration" included change of height and weight, near work, and parental myopia, while female gender, change of height and weight were associated with "Stabilization", and increased outdoor time was related to "Late onset of refraction progress". We therefore concluded that genetic and environmental risk factors have different impacts on patterns of refraction progression.

Patterns in longitudinal growth of refraction in Southern Chinese children: cluster and principal component analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Yanxian; Chang, Billy Heung Wing; Ding, Xiaohu; He, Mingguang

2016-01-01

In the present study we attempt to use hypothesis-independent analysis in investigating the patterns in refraction growth in Chinese children, and to explore the possible risk factors affecting the different components of progression, as defined by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). A total of 637 first-born twins in Guangzhou Twin Eye Study with 6-year annual visits (baseline age 7–15 years) were available in the analysis. Cluster 1 to 3 were classified after a partitioning clustering, representing stable, slow and fast progressing groups of refraction respectively. Baseline age and refraction, paternal refraction, maternal refraction and proportion of two myopic parents showed significant differences across the three groups. Three major components of progression were extracted using PCA: “Average refraction”, “Acceleration” and the combination of “Myopia stabilization” and “Late onset of refraction progress”. In regression models, younger children with more severe myopia were associated with larger “Acceleration”. The risk factors of “Acceleration” included change of height and weight, near work, and parental myopia, while female gender, change of height and weight were associated with “Stabilization”, and increased outdoor time was related to “Late onset of refraction progress”. We therefore concluded that genetic and environmental risk factors have different impacts on patterns of refraction progression. PMID:27874105

Vegetarian diet, change in dietary patterns, and diabetes risk: a prospective study.

PubMed

Chiu, Tina H T; Pan, Wen-Harn; Lin, Ming-Nan; Lin, Chin-Lon

2018-03-09

Vegetarian diets are inversely associated with diabetes in Westerners but their impact on Asians-whose pathophysiology differ from Westerners-is unknown. We aim to investigate the association between a vegetarian diet, change in dietary patterns and diabetes risk in a Taiwanese Buddhist population. We prospectively followed 2918 non-smoking, non-alcohol drinking Buddhists free of diabetes, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases at baseline, for a median of 5 years, with 183 incident diabetes cases confirmed. Diet was assessed through a validated food frequency questionnaire at baseline and a simple questionnaire during follow-ups. Incident cases of diabetes were ascertained through follow-up questionnaires, fasting glucose and HbA1C. Stratified Cox Proportional Hazards Regression was used to assess the effect of diets on risk of diabetes. Consistent vegetarian diet was associated with 35% lower hazards (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.92), while converting from a nonvegetarian to a vegetarian pattern was associated with 53% lower hazards (HR: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.30, 0.71) for diabetes, comparing with nonvegetarians while adjusting for age, gender, education, physical activity, family history of diabetes, follow-up methods, use of lipid-lowering medications, and baseline BMI. Vegetarian diet and converting to vegetarian diet may protect against diabetes independent of BMI among Taiwanese.

Assessing risk based on uncertain avalanche activity patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeidler, Antonia; Fromm, Reinhard

2015-04-01

Avalanches may affect critical infrastructure and may cause great economic losses. The planning horizon of infrastructures, e.g. hydropower generation facilities, reaches well into the future. Based on the results of previous studies on the effect of changing meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature) and the effect on avalanche activity we assume that there will be a change of the risk pattern in future. The decision makers need to understand what the future might bring to best formulate their mitigation strategies. Therefore, we explore a commercial risk software to calculate risk for the coming years that might help in decision processes. The software @risk, is known to many larger companies, and therefore we explore its capabilities to include avalanche risk simulations in order to guarantee a comparability of different risks. In a first step, we develop a model for a hydropower generation facility that reflects the problem of changing avalanche activity patterns in future by selecting relevant input parameters and assigning likely probability distributions. The uncertain input variables include the probability of avalanches affecting an object, the vulnerability of an object, the expected costs for repairing the object and the expected cost due to interruption. The crux is to find the distribution that best represents the input variables under changing meteorological conditions. Our focus is on including the uncertain probability of avalanches based on the analysis of past avalanche data and expert knowledge. In order to explore different likely outcomes we base the analysis on three different climate scenarios (likely, worst case, baseline). For some variables, it is possible to fit a distribution to historical data, whereas in cases where the past dataset is insufficient or not available the software allows to select from over 30 different distribution types. The Monte Carlo simulation uses the probability distribution of uncertain variables using all valid combinations of the values of input variables to simulate all possible outcomes. In our case the output is the expected risk (Euro/year) for each object (e.g. water intake) considered and the entire hydropower generation system. The output is again a distribution that is interpreted by the decision makers as the final strategy depends on the needs and requirements of the end-user, which may be driven by personal preferences. In this presentation, we will show a way on how we used the uncertain information on avalanche activity in future to subsequently use it in a commercial risk software and therefore bringing the knowledge of natural hazard experts to decision makers.

Public Perception of Climate Risk: The Case of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voskaki, Asimina; Tsermenidis, Konstantinos

2015-04-01

Climate change is generally considered as one of the greatest challenges our world is facing. In the case of Greece climatic change seems to be associated with sea level rise, increase in temperature, variation in precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. As a result of climate pattern changes a series of consequences are expected in areas involving build environment, infrastructures, health and various sectors of the economy. Even though climate change is probably going to affect Greece in terms of human welfare and economic growth, public perception and attitude do not always identify it as the most important, amongst others, environmental area of concern, or compared to various socio-economic issues. Considering that topics related to climate change involve a certain degree of uncertainty public perception seems to be important when dealing with adaptation strategies to manage or prevent risks from climate change impact and therefore people's reaction to risks seem to be an issue of great importance in future policy planning and implementation. The key issue of this paper is to investigate and analyse public perception in Greece as regards to climate change risk. Through a questionnaire survey this research investigates people's understanding, specific knowledge, opinion, awareness, emotions, behavior with regards to climate change risks and their willingness to pay in order to minimize or prevent risk. In addition, it examines people's willingness to alter current lifestyle and adapt to a changing climate. The information derived from survey data concern the topics and the perceived importance of the causes of the climate change between certain groups of people; the analysis of the data is focused on the correlation between perceived risk and knowledge about the issues involved. Rather than applying a specific technique extensively, we choose to deploy a number of methodologies with which we are able to draw different aspects from the data. To this end, we apply descriptive statistics, cluster analysis techniques and logistic regression. Descriptive statistics result in some general conclusions from the data concerning sex, age, location, residential characteristics, level of education and level of actual knowledge. Cluster analysis gives us an intuitive on how the subjects are grouped in certain profiles, according to their attitude towards climate change and the associated risk. Logistic regression provides a probabilistic approach in order to interpret the way the subjects respond to our questions in relation to their specific background. Based on analysis results, this paper, amongst others, points out the vulnerability of Greek society to climate risk and highlights factors that influence individual perception; in addition it identifies drivers of behavior change that can facilitate efficient adaptation plans for future use. The results of this research could be used as a basis for understanding public responses to climate change risk and for facilitating communication between experts, policy makers and communities.

Circadian Role in Daily Pattern of Cardiovascular Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Hu, Kun; Chen, Zhi; Hilton, Michael F.; Stanley, H. Eugene; Shea, Steven A.

2004-03-01

Numerous epidemiological studies demonstrate that sudden cardiac death, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, and stroke have a 24-hour daily pattern with a broad peak between 9-11am. Such a daily pattern in cardiovascular risk could be attributable to external factors, such as the daily behavior patterns, including sleep-wake cycles and activity levels, or internal factors, such as the endogenous circadian pacemaker. Findings of significant alternations in the temporal organization and nonlinear properties of heartbeat fluctuations with disease and with sleep-wake transitions raise the intriguing possibility that changes in the mechanism of control associated with behavioral sleep-wake transition may be responsible for the increased cardiac instability observed in particular circadian phases. Alternatively, we hypothesize that there is a circadian clock, independent of the sleep-wake cycle, which affects the cardiac dynamics leading to increased cardiovascular risk. We analyzed continuous recordings from healthy subjects during 7 cycles of forced desynchrony routine wherein subjects' sleep-wake cycles are adjusted to 28 hours so that their behaviors occur across all circadian phases. Heartbeat data were divided into one-hour segments. For each segment, we estimated the correlations and the nonlinear properties of the heartbeat fluctuations at the corresponding circadian phase. Since the sleep and wake contributions are equally weighted in our experiment, a change of the properties of the heartbeat dynamics with circadian phase suggest a circadian rhythm. We show significant circadian-mediated alterations in the correlation and nonlinear properties of the heartbeat resembling those observed in patients with heart failure. Remarkably, these dynamical alterations are centered at 60 degrees circadian phase, coinciding with the 9-11am window of cardiac risk.

Changes in Cancer Incidence Patterns among a Northeastern American Indian Population: 1955-1969 versus 1990-2004

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahoney, Martin C.; Va, Puthiery; Stevens, Adrian; Kahn, Amy R.; Michalek, Arthur M.

2009-01-01

Purpose: This manuscript examines shifts in patterns of cancer incidence among the Seneca Nation of Indians (SNI) for the interval 1955-1969 compared to 1990-2004. Methods: A retrospective cohort design was used to examine cancer incidence among the SNI during 2 time intervals: 1955-1969 and 1990-2004. Person-years at risk were multiplied by…

Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin M.; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Nied, Manuela

2013-04-01

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic climate change on weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin. The study is based on an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5 MPIOM coupled model forced with historical and SRES A1B greenhouse gas concentrations. Relevant weather types, occuring in association with recent flood events, are identified in the ERA40 reanalysis data set. The weather types are classified with the SANDRA cluster algorithm. Distributions of tropospheric humidity content, 500 hPa geopotential height and 500 hPa temperature over Europe are taken as input parameters. 8 (out of 40) weather types are found to be associated with flooding events in the Elbe river basin. The majority of these (6) typically occur during winter, while 2 are warm season patterns. Downscaling reveals characteristic precipitation anomalies associated with the individual patterns. The 8 flood relevant weather types are then identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. The effect of climate change on these patterns is investigated by comparing the last 30 years of the previous century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. According to the model the frequency of most patterns will not change. 5 patterns may experience a statistically significant increase in the mean precipitation over the catchment area and 4 patterns an increase in extreme precipitation. Persistence may slightly decrease for 2 patterns and remain unchanged for the others. Overall, this indicates a moderate increase in the risk for Elbe river flooding, related to changes in the weather patterns, in the coming decades.

Dynamical System Modeling of Immune Reconstitution after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation Identifies Patients at Risk for Adverse Outcomes

PubMed Central

Toor, Amir A.; Sabo, Roy T.; Roberts, Catherine H.; Moore, Bonny L.; Salman, Salman R.; Scalora, Allison F.; Aziz, May T.; Shubar Ali, Ali S.; Hall, Charles E.; Meier, Jeremy; Thorn, Radhika M.; Wang, Elaine; Song, Shiyu; Miller, Kristin; Rizzo, Kathryn; Clark, William B.; McCarty, John M.; Chung, Harold M.; Manjili, Masoud H.; Neale, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Systems that evolve over time and follow mathematical laws as they evolve are called dynamical systems. Lymphocyte recovery and clinical outcomes in 41 allograft recipients conditioned using antithymocyte globulin (ATG) and 4.5-Gy total body irradiation were studied to determine if immune reconstitution could be described as a dynamical system. Survival, relapse, and graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) were not significantly different in 2 cohorts of patients receiving different doses of ATG. However, donor-derived CD3+ cell reconstitution was superior in the lower ATG dose cohort, and there were fewer instances of donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI). Lymphoid recovery was plotted in each individual over time and demonstrated 1 of 3 sigmoid growth patterns: Pattern A (n = 15) had rapid growth with high lymphocyte counts, pattern B (n = 14) had slower growth with intermediate recovery, and pattern C (n = 10) had poor lymphocyte reconstitution. There was a significant association between lymphocyte recovery patterns and both the rate of change of donor-derived CD3+ at day 30 after stem cell transplantation (SCT) and clinical outcomes. GVHD was observed more frequently with pattern A, relapse and DLI more so with pattern C, with a consequent survival advantage in patients with patterns A and B. We conclude that evaluating immune reconstitution after SCT as a dynamical system may differentiate patients at risk of adverse outcomes and allow early intervention to modulate that risk. PMID:25849208

Dietary Pattern and Macronutrients Profile on the Variation of Inflammatory Biomarkers: Scientific Update.

PubMed

Silveira, Brenda Kelly Souza; Oliveira, Thatianne Moreira Silva; Andrade, Patrícia Amaro; Hermsdorff, Helen Hermana Miranda; Rosa, Carla de Oliveira Barbosa; Franceschini, Sylvia do Carmo Castro

2018-01-01

It is known that the dietary pattern and macronutrients profile may influence the expression and secretion of inflammatory biomarkers, and the low-grade inflammation is associated with the manifestation of noncommunicable chronic diseases. Therefore, this review aimed to present and discuss the role of dietary patterns and macronutrients on the variation of inflammatory markers related to NCD risk. Scientific evidences within the last five years based on clinical trials, case-controls, cohorts, and cross-sectional studies indicate that normocaloric, carbohydrate-moderated, low-glycemic index, protein-moderated, monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acid-rich, omega-3, and low-saturated fat diets display positive effects on the inflammatory state, both in healthy individuals and in those with cardiovascular risk, although the second group seems to benefit more from changes in the dietary profile.

[Application and analysis of abdominal aortic branch malperfusion pattern in thoracic endovascular aortic repair for Stanford B aortic dissection].

PubMed

Han, X F; Guo, X; Li, T Z; Liu, G R; Huang, L J

2017-12-18

To evaluate the efficiency of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) in dealing with abdominal aortic branch malperfusion based on the analysis of aortic computed tomography angiography (CTA) images in pre- and post-TEVAR. Retrospective analysis from September 2015 to March 2016 in single institution to 32 patients, diagnosed as Stanford B aortic dissection with abdominal aortic branch malperfusion, CTA images in pre- and post-TEVAR were collected. Based on the aortic branch malperfusion pattern redefined by Nagamine, we identified and characterized branch malperfusion pattern for four abdominal aortic branches (celiac trunk, superior mesenteric artery, bilateral renal artery) in statistical analysis. In the four abdominal aortic branches (total 128 branches), 86 branches (67.2%) expressed with Class I patterns, in which subtype I-b presented with 0.8%, subtype I-c with 5.5%; 14 branches (10.9%) expressed with Class II patterns, in which subtype II-b-1 with 3.9%, subtype II-b-2 with 3.1%; 16 branches (12.5%) expressed with Class III patterns, all with subtype III-a, no subtype III-b and III-c presented. The remaining 12 branches were normal. The 100% successful rate of TEVAR obtained in 32 patients performed. The mean following-up was 4 months. Aortic CTA showed that among the 14 "high-risk" abdominal aortic branch malperfusion, 13 (92.9%) with obvious branch malperfusion in post-TEVAR were observed to improve, and the remaining one branch malperfusion (7.1%) was observed to change from subtype I-b to I-c. Few ratios in abdominal aortic branches suffered with obvious malperfusion complicated by Stanford B aortic dissection. For branches with "high-risk" malperfusion pattern, optimal changes were observed in abdominal aortic branch without revascularization in post-TEVAR, as well other branches with non-"high-risk" pattern perfusion were mostly stable in post-TEVAR. It could be of profound benefit to extend branch malperfusion patterns redefined by Nagamine in clinical practice to assess aortic dissection and in further guide for revascularization or not.

Glucocorticoid stress hormones and the effect of predation risk on elk reproduction.

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Winnie, John A; Christianson, David

2009-07-28

Predators affect prey demography through direct predation and through the costs of antipredator behavioral responses, or risk effects. Experiments have shown that risk effects can comprise a substantial proportion of a predator's total effect on prey dynamics, but we know little about their strength in wild populations, or the physiological mechanisms that mediate them. When wolves are present, elk alter their grouping patterns, vigilance, foraging behavior, habitat selection, and diet. These responses are associated with decreased progesterone levels, decreased calf production, and reduced population size [Creel S, Christianson D, Liley S, Winnie JA (2007) Science 315:960]. Two general mechanisms for the effect of predation risk on reproduction have been proposed: the predation stress hypothesis and the predator-sensitive-food hypothesis. Here, we used enzyme immunoassay to measure fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations for 1,205 samples collected from 4 elk populations over 4 winters to test the hypothesis that the effect of predation risk on elk reproduction is mediated by chronic stress. Across populations and years, fecal glucocorticoid concentrations were not related to predator-prey ratios, progesterone concentrations or calf-cow ratios. Overall, the effect of wolf presence on elk reproduction is better explained by changes in foraging patterns that carry nutritional costs than by changes in glucocorticoid concentrations.

Risk-based management of invading plant disease.

PubMed

Hyatt-Twynam, Samuel R; Parnell, Stephen; Stutt, Richard O J H; Gottwald, Tim R; Gilligan, Christopher A; Cunniffe, Nik J

2017-05-01

Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Glucocorticoid stress hormones and the effect of predation risk on elk reproduction

PubMed Central

Creel, Scott; Winnie, John A.; Christianson, David

2009-01-01

Predators affect prey demography through direct predation and through the costs of antipredator behavioral responses, or risk effects. Experiments have shown that risk effects can comprise a substantial proportion of a predator's total effect on prey dynamics, but we know little about their strength in wild populations, or the physiological mechanisms that mediate them. When wolves are present, elk alter their grouping patterns, vigilance, foraging behavior, habitat selection, and diet. These responses are associated with decreased progesterone levels, decreased calf production, and reduced population size [Creel S, Christianson D, Liley S, Winnie JA (2007) Science 315:960]. Two general mechanisms for the effect of predation risk on reproduction have been proposed: the predation stress hypothesis and the predator-sensitive-food hypothesis. Here, we used enzyme immunoassay to measure fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations for 1,205 samples collected from 4 elk populations over 4 winters to test the hypothesis that the effect of predation risk on elk reproduction is mediated by chronic stress. Across populations and years, fecal glucocorticoid concentrations were not related to predator-prey ratios, progesterone concentrations or calf-cow ratios. Overall, the effect of wolf presence on elk reproduction is better explained by changes in foraging patterns that carry nutritional costs than by changes in glucocorticoid concentrations. PMID:19617549

Proteome changes in rat plasma in response to sibutramine.

PubMed

Choi, Jung-Won; Joo, Jeong In; Kim, Dong Hyun; Wang, Xia; Oh, Tae Seok; Choi, Duk Kwon; Yun, Jong Won

2011-04-01

Sibutramine is an anti-obesity agent that induces weight loss by selective inhibition of neuronal reuptake of serotonin and norepinephrine; however, it is associated with the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including heart attack and stroke. Here, we analyzed global protein expression patterns in plasma of control and sibutramine-treated rats using proteomic analysis for a better understanding of the two conflicting functions of this drug, appetite regulation, and cardiovascular risk. The control (n=6) and sibutramine-treated groups (n=6) were injected by vehicle and sibutramine, respectively, and 2-DE combined with MALDI-TOF/MS were performed. Compared to control rats, sibutramine-administered rats gained approximately 18% less body weight and consumed about 13% less food. Plasma leptin and insulin levels also showed a significant decrease in sibutramine-treated rats. As a result of proteomic analysis, 23 differentially regulated proteins were discovered and were reconfirmed by immunoblot analysis. Changed proteins were classified into appetite regulation and cardiovascular risk, according to their regulation pattern. Because the differential levels of proteins that have been well recognized as predictors of CVD risk were not well matched with the results of our proteomic analysis, this study does not conclusively prove that sibutramine has an effect on CVD risk. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Risk of transitional-cell carcinoma of the bladder in first- and second-generation immigrants to Sweden.

PubMed

Mousavi, Seyed Mohsen; Sundquist, Jan; Hemminki, Kari

2010-07-01

Environmental risk factors, particularly tobacco smoking, are important for transitional-cell carcinoma of the bladder. Studies in migrants may provide valuable insight into the environmental and genetic etiology of cancer. The nationwide Swedish Family-Cancer Database was used to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for transitional-cell carcinoma among the immigrants compared with native Swedes. SIRs for lung cancer were also calculated as a proxy for smoking prevalence. Significantly decreased risks of bladder cancer were observed for male (SIR=0.89) and female (0.71) Finns and male East Asian (0.39) first-generation immigrants. Male immigrants from many countries showed increased risks, ranging from 1.18 to 2.29. Only female immigrants from Denmark (1.40) and Norway (1.27) had increased risks. The risks for bladder and lung cancers correlated, except for Finnish and Iranian men. The sons of immigrants born in high-risk countries had an increased SIR (1.51) whereas the daughters of immigrants born in low-risk countries had a decreased risk (0.32). The risk in the second-generation immigrants born in Sweden was equal to that of natives. In conclusion, the observed bladder cancer risks in the first-generation immigrants, the changes in risks in the second-generation immigrants, and the covariation of the risk patterns of bladder and lung cancers suggested a main contribution by tobacco smoking. The exceptional patterns among the Finns and Iranians may point to the existence of modifying factors. The changes in incidence in second-generation immigrants, yet based on small case numbers, lend little support to the involvement of genetic factors.

2010 SSS Presidential Address: The Devolution of Risk and the Changing Life Course in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Rand, Angela M.

2011-01-01

Recent patterns of labor exit in late life in the United States are increasingly heterogeneous. This heterogeneity stems from diverse employment careers that are emerging in the workplace where job security is declining. Individuals' structural locations in the labor market expose them to diverse risks for employment and income security at older…

Migration, Acculturation and Environment: Determinants of Obesity among Iranian Migrants in Australia

PubMed Central

Delavari, Maryam; Sønderlund, Anders Larrabee; Mellor, David; Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Swinburn, Boyd

2015-01-01

While migration from low- to high-income countries is typically associated with weight gain, the obesity risks of migration from middle-income countries are less certain. In addition to changes in behaviours and cultural orientation upon migration, analyses of changes in environments are needed to explain post-migration risks for obesity. The present study examines the interaction between obesity-related environmental factors and the pattern of migrant acculturation in a sample of 152 Iranian immigrants in Victoria, Australia. Weight measurements, demographics, physical activity levels and diet habits were also surveyed. The pattern of acculturation (relative integration, assimilation, separation or marginalization) was not related to body mass index, diet, or physical activity behaviours. Three relevant aspects of participants’ perception of the Australian environment (physically active environments, social pressure to be fit, unhealthy food environments) varied considerably by demographic characteristics, but only one (physically active environments) was related to a pattern of acculturation (assimilation). Overall, this research highlighted a number of key relationships between acculturation and obesity-related environments and behaviours for our study sample. Theoretical models on migration, culture and obesity need to include environmental factors. PMID:25648171

Changing Patterns of Nonprior Service Attrition in the Army National Guard and Army Reserve

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-07-01

attrition risk is gender . Women are at much higher risk of attrition than males with similar characteristics. However, the gap between male and... gender (Table 5.1). Women are at much higher risk of attrition than similar males. However, the gap between male and female attrition narrows...the basis of gender , educational achievement, aptitude scores, race, and age. 1Vi" The characteristic that makes the largest consistent difference in

Assessment of primary healthcare professionals' management of hypertensive patients with riser pattern.

PubMed

Sagarra-Tió, María; Félez-Carrobé, Estel; Baiget, Montserrat; Félez, Jordi

2015-02-01

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) was implemented in our primary care setting four years ago. Since then, 450 ABPMs have been performed and 69 riser subjects identified. The riser pattern is an independent risk factor for both incidence of cardiovascular events and their associated mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess the amount of control of essential hypertension (EH) among riser patients and to evaluate how our health professionals manage therapeutic changes in riser individuals. This retrospective study involved 34,289 inhabitants served in a centre in the Barcelona metropolitan area. EH individuals (450) were recruited and ABPM was performed following guidelines of the MAPAPRES (www.cardiorisc.com/MP/index_MP.asp). Good control of blood pressure was observed in 46% of dipper and non-dipper subjects but only 35% of riser subjects had blood pressures within good control ranges. The measured cardiovascular risk was either high or very high in 35% of riser individuals. Changes in medication were introduced in riser patients with both good and poor blood pressure control. A second follow-up ABPM was done in only 27% of the riser individuals. In these subjects, therapeutic changes successfully modified ABPM patterns in 87% of cases. Therapeutic changes in riser patients were introduced when these subjects were poorly controlled and these changes were highly effective. Additional ABPM to confirm the effectiveness of therapeutic changes was only performed in some individuals. Thus, for management of riser patients, more specific training of health professionals is needed. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013.

A Multiphase Non-Linear Mixed Effects Model: An Application to Spirometry after Lung Transplantation

PubMed Central

Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Blackstone, Eugene H.

2014-01-01

In medical sciences, we often encounter longitudinal temporal relationships that are non-linear in nature. The influence of risk factors may also change across longitudinal follow-up. A system of multiphase non-linear mixed effects model is presented to model temporal patterns of longitudinal continuous measurements, with temporal decomposition to identify the phases and risk factors within each phase. Application of this model is illustrated using spirometry data after lung transplantation using readily available statistical software. This application illustrates the usefulness of our flexible model when dealing with complex non-linear patterns and time varying coefficients. PMID:24919830

Macro Social Flaws and Intervention's Unfinished Business: A Personal Note on Young People's Drug Use in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Cheung, Yuet W

2015-01-01

This paper traces how social, economic, and cultural changes in Hong Kong in the past five decades might have affected the pattern of illicit drug use among young people in Hong Kong. The prevalence of illicit drug use by young people had been very low before the 1990s, and like adult users, young users mostly used heroin. This pattern of drug use started to change in the late 1990s, when there was a sudden upsurge of drug use among young people, and psychoactive drugs such as ketamine quickly replaced heroin as the most popular drugs among them. An attempt is made to explain the new pattern of young people's drug use with respect to the changes of the social, economic and cultural conditions of Hong Kong since the 1960s, making use of Beck's risk society perspective and Parker's concept of normalization of recreational drug use. The identification of macro social flaws points to the need to address societal factors impeding successful interventions, which will involve reducing the blockage of upward mobility for young people, and providing them with the latest scientific knowledge of the physical and mental damages of ketamine and other psychoactive drugs for their better understanding of the risk of drug use.

Cultural Orientation Trajectories and Substance Use: Findings From a Longitudinal Study of Mexican-Origin Youth.

PubMed

Cruz, Rick A; King, Kevin M; Cauce, Ana M; Conger, Rand D; Robins, Richard W

2017-03-01

Cultural adaptation may influence Latino youth substance use (SU) development, yet few longitudinal studies have examined cultural change over time and adolescent SU outcomes. Using longitudinal data collected annually across ages 10-16 from 674 Mexican-origin youth (50% female), the authors characterized cultural adaptation patterns for language use (English and Spanish use), values (American values and familism values), and identity (ethnic pride), and examined whether these cultural adaptation patterns were associated with differential SU risk. Youth with increasing bilingualism and high/stable family values had lower SU risk compared to youth who primarily spoke English and endorsed decreasing family values, respectively. Ethnic pride trajectories were not associated with SU. Findings highlight the importance of considering cultural change related to Latino youth SU. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Hippocampal Sclerosis of Aging, a Common Alzheimer's Disease 'Mimic': Risk Genotypes are Associated with Brain Atrophy Outside the Temporal Lobe.

PubMed

Nho, Kwangsik; Saykin, Andrew J; Nelson, Peter T

2016-01-01

Hippocampal sclerosis of aging (HS-Aging) is a common brain disease in older adults with a clinical course that is similar to Alzheimer's disease. Four single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have previously shown association with HS-Aging. The present study investigated structural brain changes associated with these SNPs using surface-based analysis. Participants from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort (ADNI; n = 1,239), with both MRI scans and genotype data, were used to assess the association between brain atrophy and previously identified HS-Aging risk SNPs in the following genes: GRN, TMEM106B, ABCC9, and KCNMB2 (minor allele frequency for each is >30%). A fifth SNP (near the ABCC9 gene) was evaluated in post-hoc analysis. The GRN risk SNP (rs5848_T) was associated with a pattern of atrophy in the dorsomedial frontal lobes bilaterally, remarkable since GRN is a risk factor for frontotemporal dementia. The ABCC9 risk SNP (rs704180_A) was associated with multifocal atrophy whereas a SNP (rs7488080_A) nearby (∼50 kb upstream) ABCC9 was associated with atrophy in the right entorhinal cortex. Neither TMEM106B (rs1990622_T), KCNMB2 (rs9637454_A), nor any of the non-risk alleles were associated with brain atrophy. When all four previously identified HS-Aging risk SNPs were summed into a polygenic risk score, there was a pattern of associated multifocal brain atrophy in a predominately frontal pattern. We conclude that common SNPs previously linked to HS-Aging pathology were associated with a distinct pattern of anterior cortical atrophy. Genetic variation associated with HS-Aging pathology may represent a non-Alzheimer's disease contribution to atrophy outside of the hippocampus in older adults.

Hippocampal Sclerosis of Aging, a Common Alzheimer’s Disease ‘Mimic’: Risk Genotypes are Associated with Brain Atrophy Outside the Temporal Lobe

PubMed Central

Nho, Kwangsik; Saykin, Andrew J.; Nelson, Peter T.

2016-01-01

Hippocampal sclerosis of aging (HS-Aging) is a common brain disease in older adults with a clinical course that is similar to Alzheimer’s disease. Four single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have previously shown association with HS-Aging. The present study investigated structural brain changes associated with these SNPs using surface-based analysis. Participants from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort (ADNI; n = 1,239), with both MRI scans and genotype data, were used to assess the association between brain atrophy and previously identified HS-Aging risk SNPs in the following genes: GRN, TMEM106B, ABCC9, and KCNMB2 (minor allele frequency for each is >30%). A fifth SNP (near the ABCC9 gene) was evaluated in post-hoc analysis. The GRN risk SNP (rs5848_T) was associated with a pattern of atrophy in the dorsomedial frontal lobes bilaterally, remarkable since GRN is a risk factor for frontotemporal dementia. The ABCC9 risk SNP (rs704180_A) was associated with multifocal atrophy whereas a SNP (rs7488080_A) nearby (~50 kb upstream) ABCC9 was associated with atrophy in the right entorhinal cortex. Neither TMEM106B (rs1990622_T), KCNMB2 (rs9637454_A), nor any of the non-risk alleles were associated with brain atrophy. When all four previously identified HS-Aging risk SNPs were summed into a polygenic risk score, there was a pattern of associated multifocal brain atrophy in a predominately frontal pattern. We conclude that common SNPs previously linked to HS-Aging pathology were associated with a distinct pattern of anterior cortical atrophy. Genetic variation associated with HS-Aging pathology may represent a non-Alzheimer’s disease contribution to atrophy outside of the hippocampus in older adults. PMID:27003218

Change-of-Direction Biomechanics: Is What's Best for Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury Prevention Also Best for Performance?

PubMed

Fox, Aaron S

2018-05-02

Change-of-direction maneuvers (e.g., side-step cutting) are an important aspect of performance in multi-directional sports, but these maneuvers are also associated with anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Despite this, the impact of biomechanics on ACL injury risk and performance is often examined in isolation. The purpose of this review was to examine the alignment between biomechanical recommendations for ACL injury prevention and performance with regard to change-of-direction maneuvers. Several studies linking change-of-direction biomechanics to both ACL injury risk and performance were examined. A degree of overlap was identified between biomechanical strategies that could both reduce ACL injury risk and enhance performance during change-of-direction maneuvers. A fore-foot footfall pattern along with trunk rotation and lateral flexion in the intended cutting direction were identified as biomechanical strategies that could both reduce potentially hazardous knee joint moments and enhance change-of-direction speed. Minimizing knee valgus during change-of-direction maneuvers may also reduce ACL injury risk, with this biomechanical strategy found to have no impact on performance. Certain biomechanical strategies proposed to reduce ACL injury risk were linked to reduced change-of-direction performance. A narrow foot placement and "soft" landings with greater knee flexion were identified as ACL injury prevention strategies that could have a negative impact on performance. The findings of this review emphasize the need to consider both ACL injury risk and performance when examining the biomechanics of change-of-direction maneuvers.

Effect of Climate Change on Invasion Risk of Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica Férussac, 1821: Achatinidae) in India

PubMed Central

Rekha Sarma, Roshmi; Munsi, Madhushree; Neelavara Ananthram, Aravind

2015-01-01

The Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica) is considered to be one the world’s 100 worst invasive alien species. The snail has an impact on native biodiversity, and on agricultural and horticultural crops. In India, it is known to feed on more than fifty species of native plants and agricultural crops and also outcompetes the native snails. It was introduced into India in 1847 and since then it has spread all across the country. In this paper, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the distribution pattern of Giant African Snail (GAS) under different climate change scenarios. The niche modeling results indicate that under the current climate scenario, Eastern India, peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are at high risk of invasion. The three different future climate scenarios show that there is no significant change in the geographical distribution of invasion prone areas. However, certain currently invaded areas will be more prone to invasion in the future. These regions include parts of Bihar, Southern Karnataka, parts of Gujarat and Assam. The Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands are highly vulnerable to invasion under changed climate. The Central Indian region is at low risk due to high temperature and low rainfall. An understanding of the invasion pattern can help in better management of this invasive species and also in formulating policies for its control. PMID:26618637

Effect of Climate Change on Invasion Risk of Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica Férussac, 1821: Achatinidae) in India.

PubMed

Sarma, Roshmi Rekha; Munsi, Madhushree; Ananthram, Aravind Neelavara

2015-01-01

The Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica) is considered to be one the world's 100 worst invasive alien species. The snail has an impact on native biodiversity, and on agricultural and horticultural crops. In India, it is known to feed on more than fifty species of native plants and agricultural crops and also outcompetes the native snails. It was introduced into India in 1847 and since then it has spread all across the country. In this paper, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the distribution pattern of Giant African Snail (GAS) under different climate change scenarios. The niche modeling results indicate that under the current climate scenario, Eastern India, peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are at high risk of invasion. The three different future climate scenarios show that there is no significant change in the geographical distribution of invasion prone areas. However, certain currently invaded areas will be more prone to invasion in the future. These regions include parts of Bihar, Southern Karnataka, parts of Gujarat and Assam. The Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands are highly vulnerable to invasion under changed climate. The Central Indian region is at low risk due to high temperature and low rainfall. An understanding of the invasion pattern can help in better management of this invasive species and also in formulating policies for its control.

Changes in step-width during dual-task walking predicts falls.

PubMed

Nordin, E; Moe-Nilssen, R; Ramnemark, A; Lundin-Olsson, L

2010-05-01

The aim was to evaluate whether gait pattern changes between single- and dual-task conditions were associated with risk of falling in older people. Dual-task cost (DTC) of 230 community living, physically independent people, 75 years or older, was determined with an electronic walkway. Participants were followed up each month for 1 year to record falls. Mean and variability measures of gait characteristics for 5 dual-task conditions were compared to single-task walking for each participant. Almost half (48%) of the participants fell at least once during follow-up. Risk of falling increased in individuals where DTC for performing a subtraction task demonstrated change in mean step-width compared to single-task walking. Risk of falling decreased in individuals where DTC for carrying a cup and saucer demonstrated change compared to single-task walking in mean step-width, mean step-time, and step-length variability. Degree of change in gait characteristics related to a change in risk of falling differed between measures. Prognostic guidance for fall risk was found for the above DTCs in mean step-width with a negative likelihood ratio of 0.5 and a positive likelihood ratio of 2.3, respectively. Findings suggest that changes in step-width, step-time, and step-length with dual tasking may be related to future risk of falling. Depending on the nature of the second task, DTC may indicate either an increased risk of falling, or a protective strategy to avoid falling. Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier B.V.

[Mortality from Suicide in the Municipalities of Mainland Portugal: Spatio-Temporal Evolution between 1980 and 2015].

PubMed

Loureiro, Adriana; Almendra, Ricardo; Costa, Cláudia; Santana, Paula

2018-01-31

Suicide is considered a public health priority. It is a complex phenomenon resulting from the interaction of several factors, which do not depend solely on individual conditions. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of suicide mortality between 1980 and 2015, identifying areas of high risk, and their variation, in the 278 municipalities of Continental Portugal. Based on the number of self-inflicted injuries and deaths from suicide and the resident population, the spatio-temporal evolution of the suicide mortality rate was assessed via: i) a Poisson joinpoint regression model, and ii) spatio-temporal clustering methods. The suicide mortality rate evolution showed statistically significant increases over three periods (1980 - 1984; 1999 - 2002 and 2006 - 2015) and two statistically significant periods of decrease (1984 - 1995 and 1995 - 1999). The spatio-temporal analysis identified five clusters of high suicide risk (relative risk >1) and four clusters of low suicide risk (relative risk < 1). The periods when suicide mortality increases seem to overlap with times of economic and financial instability. The geographical pattern of suicide risk has changed: presently, the suicide rates from the municipalities in the Center and North are showing more similarity with those seen in the South, thus increasing the ruralization of the phenomenon of suicide. Between 1980 and 2015 the spacio-temporal pattern of mortality from suicide has been changing and is a phenomenon that is currently experiencing a growing trend (since 2006) and is of higher risk in rural areas.

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

PubMed Central

Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

2015-01-01

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

Applying machine learning to pattern analysis for automated in-design layout optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cain, Jason P.; Fakhry, Moutaz; Pathak, Piyush; Sweis, Jason; Gennari, Frank; Lai, Ya-Chieh

2018-04-01

Building on previous work for cataloging unique topological patterns in an integrated circuit physical design, a new process is defined in which a risk scoring methodology is used to rank patterns based on manufacturing risk. Patterns with high risk are then mapped to functionally equivalent patterns with lower risk. The higher risk patterns are then replaced in the design with their lower risk equivalents. The pattern selection and replacement is fully automated and suitable for use for full-chip designs. Results from 14nm product designs show that the approach can identify and replace risk patterns with quantifiable positive impact on the risk score distribution after replacement.

Utilizing Electronic Medical Records to Discover Changing Trends of Medical Behaviors Over Time.

PubMed

Yin, Liangying; Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; He, Chunhua; Duan, Huilong

2017-05-05

Medical behaviors are playing significant roles in the delivery of high quality and cost-effective health services. Timely discovery of changing frequencies of medical behaviors is beneficial for the improvement of health services. The main objective of this work is to discover the changing trends of medical behaviors over time. This study proposes a two-steps approach to detect essential changing patterns of medical behaviors from Electronic Medical Records (EMRs). In detail, a probabilistic topic model, i.e., Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), is firstly applied to disclose yearly treatment patterns in regard to the risk stratification of patients from a large volume of EMRs. After that, the changing trends by comparing essential/critical medical behaviors in a specific time period are detected and analyzed, including changes of significant patient features with their values, and changes of critical treatment interventions with their occurring time stamps. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 12,152 patient cases with a time range of 10 years. Totally, 135 patients features and 234 treatment interventions in three treatment patterns were selected to detect their changing trends. In particular, evolving trends of yearly occurring probabilities of the selected medical behaviors were categorized into six content changing patterns (i.e, 112 growing, 123 declining, 43 up-down, 16 down-up, 35 steady, and 40 jumping), using the proposed approach. Besides, changing trends of execution time of treatment interventions were classified into three occurring time changing patterns (i.e., 175 early-implemented, 50 steady-implemented and 9 delay-implemented). Experimental results show that our approach has an ability to utilize EMRs to discover essential evolving trends of medical behaviors, and thus provide significant potential to be further explored for health services redesign and improvement.

Dietary Patterns in Asian Indians in the United States: An Analysis of the Metabolic Syndrome and Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America Study (MASALA)

PubMed Central

Gadgil, Meghana D.; Anderson, Cheryl A. M.; Kandula, Namratha R.; Kanaya, Alka M.

2013-01-01

Dietary patterns contribute to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Asian Indians have earlier onset, more severe and prevalent CVD than many other racial/ethnic groups. We aimed to characterize dietary patterns in Asian Indians living in the United States and examine associations with cardio-metabolic risk factors. 150 Asian Indians, aged 45–84 years, without known cardiovascular disease, living in the San Francisco Bay area between August 2006 and October 2007 were enrolled into the Metabolic Syndrome and Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) study. A food frequency questionnaire validated in Asian Indians, fasting blood samples, and CT scans were obtained on all participants. Principal component analysis with varimax rotation was used to determine prevalent dietary patterns. Linear regression analyses were performed for associations between dietary patterns and metabolic factors, adjusting initially for age and sex, then additionally for BMI, income, education, MET-minutes of exercise, alcohol consumption, and smoking. Two distinct dietary patterns were identified that we termed “Western,” and “Vegetarian.” Compared with the Western diet, the Vegetarian diet was associated with lower HOMA-IR (−1.12; p=0.05) and lower HDL (−4.77, p=0.09). Given that the Western and Vegetarian patterns were each associated with adverse metabolic changes, healthful dietary choices may help Asian Indians improve risk factors for CVD. PMID:24295929

Clinical significance of J-wave in elite athletes.

PubMed

Pelliccia, Antonio; Quattrini, Filippo M

2015-01-01

The J-wave pattern on 12-lead ECG is traditionally defined as a positive deflection at junction between the end of the QRS and the beginning of the ST-segment. This pattern has recently been associated with increased risk for idiopathic ventricular fibrillation in the absence of cardiovascular disease. The interest for the clinical significance of J-wave pattern as a potential ECG hallmark of high risk for cardiac arrest has recently been reinforced by the growing practice of ECG screening, such as occurs in large population of young competitive athletes. The available scientific evidence shows that the J-wave pattern is relatively common in trained athletes (ranging from 14% to 44%) and, differently from subjects who suffered from ventricular fibrillation, commonly localized in lateral leads while it is relatively rare to be found in inferior leads. Furthermore the J-wave pattern has been demonstrated to be a dynamic phenomenon related to the training status, with the larger prominence at the peak of training and with an inverse relation between magnitude of J-wave and heart rate. In addition the J-wave pattern is usually associated with other ECG changes, such as increased QRS voltages and ST-segment elevation, as well as LV remodeling, suggesting that it likely represents another expression of the physiologic athlete's heart. Finally the scientific data available demonstrated that during a medium follow-up period the J-wave pattern does not convey risk for adverse cardiac events, including sudden death or ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term changes in the heat-mortality relationship according to heterogeneous regional climate: a time-series study in South Korea.

PubMed

Heo, Seulkee; Lee, Eunil; Kwon, Bo Yeon; Lee, Suji; Jo, Kyung Hee; Kim, Jinsun

2016-08-03

Several studies identified a heterogeneous impact of heat on mortality in hot and cool regions during a fixed period, whereas less evidence is available for changes in risk over time due to climate change in these regions. We compared changes in risk during periods without (1996-2000) and with (2008-2012) heatwave warning forecasts in regions of South Korea with different climates. Study areas were categorised into 3 clusters based on the spatial clustering of cooling degree days in the period 1993-2012: hottest cluster (cluster H), moderate cluster (cluster M) and cool cluster (cluster C). The risk was estimated according to increases in the daily all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality per 1°C change in daily temperature above the threshold, using a generalised additive model. The risk of all types of mortality increased in cluster H in 2008-2012, compared with 1996-2000, whereas the risks in all-combined regions and cooler clusters decreased. Temporal increases in mortality risk were larger for some vulnerable subgroups, including younger adults (<75 years), those with a lower education and blue-collar workers, in cluster H as well as all-combined regions. Different patterns of risk change among clusters might be attributable to large increases in heatwave frequency or duration during study periods and the degree of urbanisation in cluster H. People living in hotter regions or with a lower socioeconomic status are at higher risk following an increasing trend of heat-related mortality risks. Continuous efforts are needed to understand factors which affect changes in heat-related mortality risks. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Further Trends in Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders-A Comparison of Risk factors for Symptoms Using Quality of Work Life Data From the 2002, 2006 and 2010 General Social Survey

PubMed Central

Dick, Robert B.; Lowe, Brian; Ming-Lun, Lu; Krieg, Edward F.

2015-01-01

Objective Report trends for risk of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). Methods Three QWL surveys examine the risk factors for MSDs. Results Findings similar for several risk factors, but differences across the reporting years may reflect economic conditions. 2010 respondent numbers were reduced, some risk factors had pattern changes and there were gender and age differences. Trend analysis showed most significant changes were for the “Work Fast” risk factor. New 2010 “Physical Effort” item showed gender differences and items reflective of total worker health showed strong associations with “Back Pain” and “Pain in Arms.” Conclusions Intervention strategies should focus on physical exposures and psychosocial risk factors (work stress, safety climate, job satisfaction, supervisor support, work fast, work freedom, work time) that have been consistently related to reports of MSDs. Economic conditions will influence some psychosocial risk factors. PMID:26247646

Risk Estimation and Sexual Behaviour: A Longitudinal Study of 16- 21-year olds.

PubMed

Breakwell, G M; Breakwell, G M

1996-01-01

The relationships among risk estimation, impulsivity and patterns of sexual risk-taking in 16-21-year-olds are examined. A sample of 236 males and 340 females completed a postal questionnaire on three occasions at annual intervals. They reported their assessment of their own risk of HIV infection, the risk of HIV infection associated with six types of sexual activity, their likelihood of engaging in each of these activities, and whether they had participated in these activities between the first and second data collections. Impulsivity was indexed using a standard test. The data support the conclusion that strong social representations of sexual risks exist which do not markedly change during late adolescence. These risk estimates predict behavioural expectations, primarily for the riskiest behaviours, and for females (actual participation in vaginal sex); but for males, risk estimates fail to predict behaviour. Evidence here for a rational model of individual decision- making in relation to sexual risk- taking is sparse. Impulsivity was not a good predictor of expected or actual patterns of sexual behaviour, though higher impulsivity was associated with having more sexual partners and, in females, with starting to have sex younger.

A TIERED APPROACH TO WILDLIFE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Populations of several wildlife species are experiencing increased pressure from human-induced changes in landscape pattern, habitat quality, and toxic chemical exposure in the environment. Governmental agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) are requ...

Dietary Pattern and Macronutrients Profile on the Variation of Inflammatory Biomarkers: Scientific Update

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Thatianne Moreira Silva; Andrade, Patrícia Amaro; Hermsdorff, Helen Hermana Miranda; Rosa, Carla de Oliveira Barbosa

2018-01-01

It is known that the dietary pattern and macronutrients profile may influence the expression and secretion of inflammatory biomarkers, and the low-grade inflammation is associated with the manifestation of noncommunicable chronic diseases. Therefore, this review aimed to present and discuss the role of dietary patterns and macronutrients on the variation of inflammatory markers related to NCD risk. Scientific evidences within the last five years based on clinical trials, case-controls, cohorts, and cross-sectional studies indicate that normocaloric, carbohydrate-moderated, low-glycemic index, protein-moderated, monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acid-rich, omega-3, and low-saturated fat diets display positive effects on the inflammatory state, both in healthy individuals and in those with cardiovascular risk, although the second group seems to benefit more from changes in the dietary profile. PMID:29725543

Negotiated risk and resident autonomy: Frontline care staff perspectives on culture change in long term care in Nova Scotia, Canada.

PubMed

Roberts, Emily

2016-08-12

Regulating risk, freedom of action, and autonomy in decision making are problems shared by both caregivers and residents in long term care settings, and may become the subject of tension and constant negotiation. This study focuses on long term care staff and management perceptions of day to day life in a care community which has gone through a culture change transition, where small residentially scaled households replace large instutional models of care. In each household, the setting is considered to be home for the 8-12 residents, creating a major shift of roles for the caregivers; they are, in essence, coming into a home rather than institutional environment as a place of work. This potentially changes the dynamics of both patterns of work for caregivers and patterns of daily living for residents. Participant observations and care staff interviews. Several key themes emrged which include: teamwork; the culture of care; regulating risk; the physical environment and care staff empowerment. An unexpected outcome was the consensus among care staff that it is they who feel at home while working in the care households, leading to empowerment in their work roles and a deeper understanding of the importance of their role in the lives of the residents.

Lifestyle Changes and Pressure Ulcer Prevention in Adults With Spinal Cord Injury in the Pressure Ulcer Prevention Study Lifestyle Intervention

PubMed Central

Ghaisas, Samruddhi; Pyatak, Elizabeth A.; Blanche, Erna; Clark, Florence

2015-01-01

Pressure ulcers (PrUs) are a major burden to patients with spinal cord injury (SCI), affecting their psychological, physical, and social well-being. Lifestyle choices are thought to contribute to the risk of developing PrUs. This article focuses on the interaction between lifestyle choices and the development of PrUs in community settings among participants in the University of Southern California–Rancho Los Amigos National Rehabilitation Center Pressure Ulcer Prevention Study (PUPS II), a randomized controlled trial of a lifestyle intervention for adults with SCI. We conducted a secondary cross-case analysis of treatment notes of 47 PUPS II participants and identified four patterns relating PrU development to lifestyle changes: positive PrU changes (e.g., healing PrUs) with positive lifestyle changes, negative or no PrU changes with positive lifestyle changes, positive PrU changes with minor lifestyle changes, and negative or no PrU changes with no lifestyle changes. We present case studies exemplifying each pattern. PMID:25553751

Less is More: Comparing the 2015 and 2009 American Thyroid Association Guidelines for Thyroid Nodules and Cancer.

PubMed

Kim, Brian W; Yousman, Wina; Wong, Wei Xiang; Cheng, Cheng; McAninch, Elizabeth A

2016-06-01

The American Thyroid Association (ATA) has recently revised its guidance pertaining to thyroid nodules and follicular cell-derived thyroid cancer. The 2015 guidelines are massive in both scope and scale, with changes in the organizational approach to risk stratification of nodules and cancer, as well as multiple sections covering new material. This review highlights the major structural and organizational changes, focusing attention on the most dramatically changed recommendations, that is, those recommendations that clinicians will find striking because they call for significant divergence from prior clinical practice. The revised approach to thyroid nodule risk stratification is based on sonographic pattern, with an emphasis on pattern rather than growth in the long-term surveillance of nodules. Accumulating data have also been incorporated into an updated risk stratification scheme for thyroid cancer that increases the size of the low-risk pool, in part because low-volume lymph nodal metastases are now considered low risk. The most fundamentally altered recommendation is that lobectomy might be considered as the initial surgical approach for follicular cell-derived thyroid cancers from 1 to 4 cm in size. The underlying theme of the 2015 ATA guidelines is that "less is more." As these new recommendations are adopted, fewer fine-needle aspiration biopsies will need to be done, less extensive surgeries will become more common, less radioactive iodine will be used either for treatment or for diagnostics, and less stimulated thyroglobulin testing will be done. Mastery of these guidelines will help clinicians know when it is reasonable to do less, thus providing responsibly individualized therapy for their patients.

Dynamical System Modeling of Immune Reconstitution after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation Identifies Patients at Risk for Adverse Outcomes.

PubMed

Toor, Amir A; Sabo, Roy T; Roberts, Catherine H; Moore, Bonny L; Salman, Salman R; Scalora, Allison F; Aziz, May T; Shubar Ali, Ali S; Hall, Charles E; Meier, Jeremy; Thorn, Radhika M; Wang, Elaine; Song, Shiyu; Miller, Kristin; Rizzo, Kathryn; Clark, William B; McCarty, John M; Chung, Harold M; Manjili, Masoud H; Neale, Michael C

2015-07-01

Systems that evolve over time and follow mathematical laws as they evolve are called dynamical systems. Lymphocyte recovery and clinical outcomes in 41 allograft recipients conditioned using antithymocyte globulin (ATG) and 4.5-Gy total body irradiation were studied to determine if immune reconstitution could be described as a dynamical system. Survival, relapse, and graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) were not significantly different in 2 cohorts of patients receiving different doses of ATG. However, donor-derived CD3(+) cell reconstitution was superior in the lower ATG dose cohort, and there were fewer instances of donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI). Lymphoid recovery was plotted in each individual over time and demonstrated 1 of 3 sigmoid growth patterns: Pattern A (n = 15) had rapid growth with high lymphocyte counts, pattern B (n = 14) had slower growth with intermediate recovery, and pattern C (n = 10) had poor lymphocyte reconstitution. There was a significant association between lymphocyte recovery patterns and both the rate of change of donor-derived CD3(+) at day 30 after stem cell transplantation (SCT) and clinical outcomes. GVHD was observed more frequently with pattern A, relapse and DLI more so with pattern C, with a consequent survival advantage in patients with patterns A and B. We conclude that evaluating immune reconstitution after SCT as a dynamical system may differentiate patients at risk of adverse outcomes and allow early intervention to modulate that risk. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China.

PubMed

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-11-09

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution-severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

PubMed Central

Gong, Jian; Yang, Jianxin; Tang, Wenwu

2015-01-01

Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems. PMID:26569270

Assessing the Vulnerability of Streams to Increased Frequency and Severity of Low Flows in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, C. P.

2014-12-01

A changing climate poses risks to the availability and quality of water resources. Among the risks, increased frequency and severity of low flow periods in streams would be significant for many in-stream and out-of-stream uses of water. While down-scaled climate projections serve as the basis for understanding impacts of climate change on hydrologic systems, a robust framework for risk assessment incorporates multiple dimensions of risks including the vulnerability of hydrologic systems to climate change impacts. Streamflow records from the southeastern US were examined to assess the vulnerability of streams to increased frequency and severity of low flows. Long-term (>50 years) records provide evidence of more frequent and severe low flows in more streams than would be expected from random chance. Trends in low flows appear to be a result of changes in the temporal distribution rather than the annual amount of preciptation and/or in evaporation. Base flow recession provides an indicator of a stream's vulnerability to such changes. Linkages between streamflow patterns across temporal scales can be used for understanding and asessing stream responses to the various possible expressions of a changing climate.

Mobile work: Ergonomics in a rapidly changing work environment.

PubMed

Honan, Meg

2015-01-01

Places of work have been completely transformed by innovations in mobile work tools and ever-present access to internet data. This article characterizes use patterns and provides preliminary considerations for productive and comfortable use of common mobile devices. Two surveys described trends in mobile work. In the first, ergonomics professionals who oversee programs reported common mobile devices, their users and what data is accessed. The second, an end user survey, explored common activities performed on mobile devices, duration of use and locations where mobile work is common. The survey results provide a baseline data point for the status of mobile work in early 2014. Research indicates that additional risks have been introduced to the neck, thumbs and hands when using mobile devices. Possible trends regarding device use and work locations emerge. Intervention studies provide some direction for the practitioner. Practical strategies are outlined to reduce exposure intensity and duration. Contemporary mobile work presents tremendous change and opportunity for ergonomists and researchers to keep pace with fitting the changing models of work to the person. Continued research is needed on current mobile device use patterns to better understand ergonomic risk exposure in this rapidly changing realm.

Earth as humans’ habitat: global climate change and the health of populations

PubMed Central

McMichael, Anthony J

2014-01-01

Human-induced climate change, with such rapid and continuing global-scale warming, is historically unprecedented and signifies that human pressures on Earth’s life-supporting natural systems now exceed the planet’s bio-geo-capacity. The risks from climate change to health and survival in populations are diverse, as are the social and political ramifications. Although attributing observed health changes in a population to the recent climatic change is difficult, a coherent pattern of climate- and weather-associated changes is now evident in many regions of the world. The risks impinge unevenly, especially on poorer and vulnerable regions, and are amplified by pre-existing high rates of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions. If, as now appears likely, the world warms by 3-5oC by 2100, the health consequences, directly and via massive social and economic disruption, will be severe. The health sector has an important message to convey, comparing the health risks and benefits of enlightened action to avert climate change and to achieve sustainable ways of living versus the self-interested or complacent inaction. PMID:24596901

Efficient discovery of risk patterns in medical data.

PubMed

Li, Jiuyong; Fu, Ada Wai-chee; Fahey, Paul

2009-01-01

This paper studies a problem of efficiently discovering risk patterns in medical data. Risk patterns are defined by a statistical metric, relative risk, which has been widely used in epidemiological research. To avoid fruitless search in the complete exploration of risk patterns, we define optimal risk pattern set to exclude superfluous patterns, i.e. complicated patterns with lower relative risk than their corresponding simpler form patterns. We prove that mining optimal risk pattern sets conforms an anti-monotone property that supports an efficient mining algorithm. We propose an efficient algorithm for mining optimal risk pattern sets based on this property. We also propose a hierarchical structure to present discovered patterns for the easy perusal by domain experts. The proposed approach is compared with two well-known rule discovery methods, decision tree and association rule mining approaches on benchmark data sets and applied to a real world application. The proposed method discovers more and better quality risk patterns than a decision tree approach. The decision tree method is not designed for such applications and is inadequate for pattern exploring. The proposed method does not discover a large number of uninteresting superfluous patterns as an association mining approach does. The proposed method is more efficient than an association rule mining method. A real world case study shows that the method reveals some interesting risk patterns to medical practitioners. The proposed method is an efficient approach to explore risk patterns. It quickly identifies cohorts of patients that are vulnerable to a risk outcome from a large data set. The proposed method is useful for exploratory study on large medical data to generate and refine hypotheses. The method is also useful for designing medical surveillance systems.

Evolvement rules of basin flood risk under low-carbon mode. Part I: response of soil organic carbon to land use change and its influence on land use planning in the Haihe basin.

PubMed

Li, Fawen; Wang, Liping; Zhao, Yong

2017-08-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. The aim of this study was to evaluate the response of SOC to land use change and its influence on land use planning in the Haihe basin, and provide planning land use pattern for basin flood risk assessment. Firstly, the areas of different land use types in 1980, 2008, and the planning year (2020) were counted by area statistics function of ArcGIS. Then, the transfer matrixes of land use were produced by spatial overlay analysis function. Lastly, based on the land use maps, soil type map and soil profile database, SOC storage of different land use types in three different periods were calculated. The results showed the patterns of land use have changed a lot from 1980 to 2008, among the 19,835 km 2 of grassland was transformed into forestland, which was the largest conversion landscape. And land use conversion brought the SOC storage changes. Total carbon source was 88.83 Tg, and total carbon sink was 85.49 Tg. So, the Haihe basin presented as a carbon source from 1980 to 2008. From 2008 to 2020, the changes of forestland and grassland are the biggest in Haihe basin, which cause the SOC pool change from a carbon source to a carbon sink. SOC storage will increase from 2420.5 Tg in 2008 to 2495.5 Tg in 2020. The changing trend is conducive to reducing atmospheric concentrations. Therefore, land use planning in Haihe basin is reasonable and can provide the underlying surface condition for flood risk assessment.

Changing patterns of use of osteoporosis medications in the years after launch: implications for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Reams, B Diane; O'Malley, Cynthia D; Critchlow, Cathy W; Lauffenburger, Julie C; Brookhart, M Alan

2014-03-01

Newly marketed medications may be used selectively in patients with more severe disease. Changes in patterns of use following a drug's introduction to the market can greatly influence results from non-experimental comparative effectiveness research. We sought to explore this issue by characterizing trends in oral and injectable prescription drug claims for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. We examined a post-menopausal population of women age 55 years and older in the Truven Health Analytics MarketScan® Databases. We used propensity score (PS) methods to describe how predictors of new users of oral and injectable osteoporosis medications change over time. We found that injectable osteoporosis medications tended to be used more selectively in the higher risk patients shortly after launch. Over time, they appeared to be used increasingly in lower risk patients. If disease severity is incompletely captured in the data, comparative effectiveness of novel osteoporosis medications may be difficult to accurately estimate, particularly when medications are new to market. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Snack Dietary Pattern Increases the Risk of Hypercholesterolemia in Northern Chinese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Na, Lixin; Han, Tianshu; Zhang, Wei; Wu, Xiaoyan; Na, Guanqiong; Du, Shanshan; Li, Ying; Sun, Changhao

2015-01-01

The evidence about the effect of dietary patterns on blood cholesterol from cohort studies was very scarce. The study was to identify the association of dietary patterns with lipid profile, especially cholesterol, in a cohort in north China. Using a 1-year food frequency questionnaire, we assessed the dietary intake of 4515 adults from the Harbin People’s Health Study in 2008, aged 20-74 years. Principle component analysis was used to identify dietary patterns. The follow-up was completed in 2012. Fasting blood samples were collected for the determination of blood lipid concentrations. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association of dietary patterns with the incidence of hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and low-HDL cholesterolemia. Five dietary patterns were identified (“staple food”, “vegetable, fruit and milk”, “potato, soybean and egg”, “snack”, and “meat”). The relative risk (RR) between the extreme tertiles of the snack dietary pattern scores was 1.72 (95% CI = 1.14, 2.59, P = 0.004) for hypercholesterolemia, 1.39 (1.13, 1.75, P = 0.036) for hypertriglyceridemia, after adjustment for age, sex, education, body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, energy intake, exercise and baseline lipid concentrations. There was a significant positive association between the snack dietary pattern scores and fasting serum total cholesterol (SRC (standardized regression coefficient) = 0.262, P = 0.025), LDL-c (SRC = 0.324, P = 0.002) and triglycerides (SRC = 0.253, P = 0.035), after adjustment for the multiple variables above. Moreover, the adjusted RR of hypertriglyceridemia between the extreme tertiles was 0.73 (0.56, 0.94, P = 0.025) for the vegetable, fruit and milk dietary pattern, and 1.86 (1.33, 2.41, P = 0.005) for the meat dietary pattern. The snack dietary pattern was a newly emerged dietary pattern in northern Chinese adults. It appears conceivable that the risk of hypercholesterolemia can be reduced by changing the snack dietary pattern. PMID:26244510

Disassortative mixing patterns of drug-using and sex networks on HIV risk behaviour among young drug users in Yunnan, China.

PubMed

Li, J; Luo, J; Li, J; Liu, H

2015-09-01

The dominant mode of HIV transmission in China has changed from injection drug use to sexual contact. The objectives of this study were to describe the disassortative and assortative mixing patterns of drug-using and sex networks among young drug users in China. Cross-sectional study. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) was used to recruit young drug users in an egocentric network study in Yunnan, China. Egos were categorized as having disassortative mixing network patterns if they reported both sex and drug-using networks. Egos who only had a sex network (no drug-using network), or only a drug-using network (no sex network) were categorized as having assortative mixing network patterns. Multiple logistic regression was performed to analyze the relationships between disassortative patterns with risky sexual behaviour and drug-using practices. A total of 426 participants were recruited into the study. Two hundred forty-two egos reported disassortative mixing patterns and 139 egos had assortative patterns. The RDS-adjusted proportion of having a disassortative pattern was 53.2%. Participants with disassortative patterns were more likely to engage in HIV risk behaviour compared to those with assortative patterns. Specifically, drug users with disassortative patterns reported more multiple sex partners (31.4% vs 19.6%), concurrent partnerships (52.1% vs 39.0%), non-regular sex partners (12.0% vs 4.3%), and sex partners who were IDUs (24.9% vs 12.5%). Consistent condom use with regular or non-regular partners was low (between 18.9% and 47.2%) regardless of the mixing pattern. However, parenteral risk for HIV transmission was relatively low in both groups. The transition of the HIV epidemic in China from injection drug use to sexual contact may be attributed to disassortative mixing in drug-use and sexual networks. HIV programs should consider disassortative mixing patterns when designing new behavioural interventions. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Snack Dietary Pattern Increases the Risk of Hypercholesterolemia in Northern Chinese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Na, Lixin; Han, Tianshu; Zhang, Wei; Wu, Xiaoyan; Na, Guanqiong; Du, Shanshan; Li, Ying; Sun, Changhao

2015-01-01

The evidence about the effect of dietary patterns on blood cholesterol from cohort studies was very scarce. The study was to identify the association of dietary patterns with lipid profile, especially cholesterol, in a cohort in north China. Using a 1-year food frequency questionnaire, we assessed the dietary intake of 4515 adults from the Harbin People's Health Study in 2008, aged 20-74 years. Principle component analysis was used to identify dietary patterns. The follow-up was completed in 2012. Fasting blood samples were collected for the determination of blood lipid concentrations. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association of dietary patterns with the incidence of hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and low-HDL cholesterolemia. Five dietary patterns were identified ("staple food", "vegetable, fruit and milk", "potato, soybean and egg", "snack", and "meat"). The relative risk (RR) between the extreme tertiles of the snack dietary pattern scores was 1.72 (95% CI = 1.14, 2.59, P = 0.004) for hypercholesterolemia, 1.39 (1.13, 1.75, P = 0.036) for hypertriglyceridemia, after adjustment for age, sex, education, body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, energy intake, exercise and baseline lipid concentrations. There was a significant positive association between the snack dietary pattern scores and fasting serum total cholesterol (SRC (standardized regression coefficient) = 0.262, P = 0.025), LDL-c (SRC = 0.324, P = 0.002) and triglycerides (SRC = 0.253, P = 0.035), after adjustment for the multiple variables above. Moreover, the adjusted RR of hypertriglyceridemia between the extreme tertiles was 0.73 (0.56, 0.94, P = 0.025) for the vegetable, fruit and milk dietary pattern, and 1.86 (1.33, 2.41, P = 0.005) for the meat dietary pattern. The snack dietary pattern was a newly emerged dietary pattern in northern Chinese adults. It appears conceivable that the risk of hypercholesterolemia can be reduced by changing the snack dietary pattern.

Vaccination for the expatriate and long-term traveler.

PubMed

Shepherd, Suzanne M; Shoff, William H

2014-06-01

Duration of travel is an important factor in addressing travel health safety due to cumulative risk of exposure to illness and injury. The diverse group of expatriate and long-term business and leisure travelers present a different spectrum of issues for the travel medicine practitioner to address during consultation than does the short-term traveler, due to changes in travel patterns and activities, lifestyle alterations, and increased interaction with local populations. Immunization provides one safe and reliable method of preventing infectious illness in this group. We review travel patterns and available data on illnesses that they may be exposed to, including the increased risk of certain vaccine-preventable illnesses. We review the pre-travel management of these travelers, particularly the increased risk of certain vaccine-preventable illnesses as it applies to routine vaccines, recommended travel vaccines and required travel vaccines.

Mapping rural community and dairy cow heat stress in Southern Ontario: A common geographic pattern from 2010 to 2012.

PubMed

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Kelton, David F

2016-07-03

Climate change has increased the occurrence of heat waves, causing heat stress among humans and livestock, with potentially fatal consequences. Heat stress maps provide information about related health risks and insight for control strategies. Weather data were collected throughout Southern Ontario, and the heat stress index (HSI) was estimated for 2010-2012. Geostatistical kriging was applied to map heat stress, heat waves, and control periods. Average HSI for each period ranged from 55 to 78 during control periods, and from 65 to 84 during heat waves, surpassing levels where morbidity is known to increase substantially. Heat stress followed a temporally consistent geographic pattern. HSI maps indicate high-risk areas for heat-related illness and indicate areas where agriculture and human health may be at increased risk in future.

Normalisation theory: Does it accurately describe temporal changes in adolescent drunkenness and smoking?

PubMed

Sznitman, Sharon R; Zlotnick, Cheryl; Harel-Fisch, Yossi

2016-07-01

The multiple risk model postulates that accumulating risk factors increase adolescent drunkenness and smoking. The normalisation theory adds to this by arguing that the relation between accumulative risk and drunkenness and smoking is dependent on the distribution of these behaviours in the larger population. More concretely, normalisation theory predicts that: (i) when population level use increases, low risk adolescents will be more likely to use alcohol and cigarettes; and (ii) adolescents facing multiple risk factors will be equally likely to use alcohol and cigarettes, regardless of trends in population level use. The current study empirically tests these assumptions on five waves of nationally representative samples of Israeli Jewish youth. Five cross-sectional waves of data from the Israeli Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey for Jewish 10th graders were used. Logistic regression models measured the impact of changes in population level use across waves on drunkenness and smoking, and their association with differing levels of risk factors. Between zero and two risk factors, the risk of drunkenness and smoking increases for each additional risk factor. When reaching two risk factors, added risk does not significantly increase the likelihood of smoking and drunkenness. Changes in population level drunkenness and smoking did not systematically relate to changes in the individual level relationship between risk factors and smoking and drunkenness. The pattern of results in this study provides strong evidence for the multiple risk factor model and inconsistent evidence for the normalisation theory. [Sznitman SR, Zlotnick C, Harel-Fisch Y. Normalisation theory: Does it accurately describe temporal changes in adolescent drunkenness and smoking? Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:424-432]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

PubMed

Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

2017-12-01

Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development for making decision under land use and climate changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exercise effects on lipids in persons with varying dietary patterns - Does diet matter if they exercise? Responses in STRRIDE I

PubMed Central

Huffman, Kim M.; Hawk, Victoria H.; Henes, Sarah T.; Ocampo, Christine I.; Orenduff, Melissa C.; Slentz, Cris A.; Johnson, Johanna L.; Houmard, Joseph A.; Samsa, Gregory P.; Kraus, William E.; Bales, Connie W.

2012-01-01

Background The standard clinical approach for reducing cardiovascular disease risk due to dyslipidemia is to prescribe changes in diet and physical activity. The purpose of the current study was to determine if, across a range of dietary patterns, there were variable lipoprotein responses to an aerobic exercise training intervention. Methods Subjects were participants in the Studies of a Targeted Risk Reduction Intervention through Defined Exercise (STRRIDE I), a supervised exercise program in sedentary, overweight subjects randomized to 6 months of inactivity or one of 3 aerobic exercise programs. To characterize diet patterns observed during the study, we calculated a modified z-score that included intakes of total fat, saturated fat, trans fatty acids, cholesterol, omega-3 fatty acids and fiber as compared to the 2006 AHA diet recommendations. Linear models were used to evaluate relationships between diet patterns and exercise effects on lipoproteins/lipids. Results Independent of diet, exercise had beneficial effects on LDL-cholesterol particle number, LDL-cholesterol size, HDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol size, and triglycerides (P<0.05 for all). However, having a diet pattern that closely adhered to AHA recommendations was not related to changes in these or any other serum lipids or lipoproteins in any of the exercise groups. Conclusions We found that even in sedentary individuals whose habitual diets vary in the extent of adherence to AHA dietary recommendations, a rigorous, supervised exercise intervention can achieve significant beneficial lipid effects. PMID:22795291

Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Ogden, Nicholas H; Semenza, Jan C; Woodward, Alistair

2017-08-07

Detection and attribution of health impacts caused by climate change uses formal methods to determine a ) whether the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has changed, and b ) the extent to which that change could be attributed to climate change. There have been limited efforts to undertake detection and attribution analyses in health. Our goal was to show a range of approaches for conducting detection and attribution analyses. Case studies for heatwaves, Lyme disease in Canada, and Vibrio emergence in northern Europe highlight evidence that climate change is adversely affecting human health. Changes in rates and geographic distribution of adverse health outcomes were detected, and, in each instance, a proportion of the observed changes could, in our judgment, be attributed to changes in weather patterns associated with climate change. The results of detection and attribution studies can inform evidence-based risk management to reduce current, and plan for future, changes in health risks associated with climate change. Gaining a better understanding of the size, timing, and distribution of the climate change burden of disease and injury requires reliable long-term data sets, more knowledge about the factors that confound and modify the effects of climate on health, and refinement of analytic techniques for detection and attribution. At the same time, significant advances are possible in the absence of complete data and statistical certainty: there is a place for well-informed judgments, based on understanding of underlying processes and matching of patterns of health, climate, and other determinants of human well-being. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1509.

Lower-Limb Joint Coordination Pattern in Obese Subjects

PubMed Central

Ranavolo, Alberto; Donini, Lorenzo M.; Mari, Silvia; Serrao, Mariano; Silvetti, Alessio; Iavicoli, Sergio; Cava, Edda; Asprino, Rosa; Pinto, Alessandro; Draicchio, Francesco

2013-01-01

The coordinative pattern is an important feature of locomotion that has been studied in a number of pathologies. It has been observed that adaptive changes in coordination patterns are due to both external and internal constraints. Obesity is characterized by the presence of excess mass at pelvis and lower-limb areas, causing mechanical constraints that central nervous system could manage modifying the physiological interjoint coupling relationships. Since an altered coordination pattern may induce joint diseases and falls risk, the aim of this study was to analyze whether and how coordination during walking is affected by obesity. We evaluated interjoint coordination during walking in 25 obese subjects as well as in a control group. The time-distance parameters and joint kinematics were also measured. When compared with the control group, obese people displayed a substantial similarity in joint kinematic parameters and some differences in the time-distance and in the coupling parameters. Obese subjects revealed higher values in stride-to-stride intrasubjects variability in interjoint coupling parameters, whereas the coordinative mean pattern was unaltered. The increased variability in the coupling parameters is associated with an increased risk of falls and thus should be taken into account when designing treatments aimed at restoring a normal locomotion pattern. PMID:23484078

Different Sex-Based Responses of Gut Microbiota During the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Liver-Specific Tsc1-Knockout Mice.

PubMed

Huang, Rong; Li, Ting; Ni, Jiajia; Bai, Xiaochun; Gao, Yi; Li, Yang; Zhang, Peng; Gong, Yan

2018-01-01

Gut microbial dysbiosis is correlated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore, analyzing the changing patterns in gut microbiota during HCC development, especially before HCC occurrence, is essential for the diagnosis and prevention of HCC based on gut microbial composition. However, these changing patterns in HCC are poorly understood, especially considering the sex differences in HCC incidence and mortality. Here, with an aim to determine the relationship between gut microbiota and HCC development in both sexes, and to screen potential microbial biomarkers for HCC diagnosis, we studied the changing patterns in the gut microbiota from mice of both sexes with liver-specific knockout of Tsc1 ( LTsc1KO ) that spontaneously developed HCC by 9-10 months of age and compared them to the patterns observed in their wide-type Tsc1 fl/fl cohorts using high-throughput sequencing. Using the LTsc1KO model, we were able to successfully exclude the continuing influence of diet on the gut microbiota. Based on gut microbial composition, the female LTsc1KO mice exhibited gut microbial disorder earlier than male LTsc1KO mice during the development of HCC. Our findings also indicated that the decrease in the relative abundance of anaerobic bacteria and the increase in the relative abundance of facultative anaerobic bacteria can be used as risk indexes of female HCC, but would be invalid for male HCC. Most of the changes in the gut bacteria were different between female and male LTsc1KO mice. In particular, the increased abundances of Allobaculum , Erysipelotrichaceae, Neisseriaceae, Sutterella , Burkholderiales, and Prevotella species have potential for use as risk indicators of female HCC, and the increased abundances of Paraprevotella, Paraprevotellaceae, and Prevotella can probably be applied as risk indicators of male HCC. These relationships between the gut microbiota and HCC discovered in the present study may serve as a platform for the identification of potential targets for the diagnosis and prevention of HCC in the future.

Changing mobility patterns and road mortality among pre-license teens in a late licensing country: an epidemiological study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Whereas the safety of teens in early licensing countries has been extensively studied, little is known about the safety of pre-license teens in late licensing countries, where these teens also may be at risk. This risk exists because of the combination of a) increasing use of travel modes with a high injury risk, such as bicycles and mopeds, b) inexperience, and c) teens’ developmental stage, known to be associated with risk taking and novelty seeking, especially among males. To explore the magnitude and nature of pre-license road risk, this study analysed epidemiological data from the Netherlands, and hypothesized that in this late licensing country, ‘independent travel’ and the use of riskier modes of transport increase among pre-license teens 10 to 17 years of age, resulting in higher fatality rates, with ‘experience’ and ‘gender’ as risk modifying factors. Method National travel and fatality data of pre-license adolescents in the Netherlands were analysed by traffic role (cyclist, pedestrian, car passenger and moped rider), and compared to a younger age group (0–9 years) and an older age group (18+ years). Results The study of travel data showed that teens migrate from being car occupants to being users of riskier modes of transport, specifically bicycles and mopeds. This migration resulted in a strong rise in road fatalities, illustrating the importance of mobility patterns for understanding changes in road fatalities in this age group. The data further suggested a protective role of early cycle experience for young adolescent cyclists, particularly for young males. But further study into the underlying mechanism is needed to confirm this relationship. Moped risk was extremely high, especially among young males, and even higher than that of young male car drivers. Conclusions The study confirmed the importance of changes in mobility patterns for understanding the rising road mortality when youngsters enter into their teens. The focus on fatalities has led to an underestimation of the magnitude of the problem because of the physical resilience of young adolescents that leads to high survival rates but probably also to long term disabilities. In addition, to explore the generalizability of these results, international comparisons among and between early and late licensing countries are necessary, especially in relation to moped riding as an alternative for car driving. PMID:23577703

Changing mobility patterns and road mortality among pre-license teens in a late licensing country: an epidemiological study.

PubMed

Twisk, Divera; Bos, Niels; Shope, Jean T; Kok, Gerjo

2013-04-11

Whereas the safety of teens in early licensing countries has been extensively studied, little is known about the safety of pre-license teens in late licensing countries, where these teens also may be at risk. This risk exists because of the combination of a) increasing use of travel modes with a high injury risk, such as bicycles and mopeds, b) inexperience, and c) teens' developmental stage, known to be associated with risk taking and novelty seeking, especially among males. To explore the magnitude and nature of pre-license road risk, this study analysed epidemiological data from the Netherlands, and hypothesized that in this late licensing country, 'independent travel' and the use of riskier modes of transport increase among pre-license teens 10 to 17 years of age, resulting in higher fatality rates, with 'experience' and 'gender' as risk modifying factors. National travel and fatality data of pre-license adolescents in the Netherlands were analysed by traffic role (cyclist, pedestrian, car passenger and moped rider), and compared to a younger age group (0-9 years) and an older age group (18+ years). The study of travel data showed that teens migrate from being car occupants to being users of riskier modes of transport, specifically bicycles and mopeds. This migration resulted in a strong rise in road fatalities, illustrating the importance of mobility patterns for understanding changes in road fatalities in this age group. The data further suggested a protective role of early cycle experience for young adolescent cyclists, particularly for young males. But further study into the underlying mechanism is needed to confirm this relationship. Moped risk was extremely high, especially among young males, and even higher than that of young male car drivers. The study confirmed the importance of changes in mobility patterns for understanding the rising road mortality when youngsters enter into their teens. The focus on fatalities has led to an underestimation of the magnitude of the problem because of the physical resilience of young adolescents that leads to high survival rates but probably also to long term disabilities. In addition, to explore the generalizability of these results, international comparisons among and between early and late licensing countries are necessary, especially in relation to moped riding as an alternative for car driving.

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Baho, Didier L.; Allen, Craig R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Better knowledge improves adherence to lifestyle changes and medication in patients with coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Alm-Roijer, Carin; Stagmo, Martin; Udén, Giggi; Erhardt, Leif

2004-12-01

Many patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) are not managed adequately, and we often fail to reach treatment targets. To investigate if knowledge of risk factors for CHD, measured by a questionnaire, would show any relation to advice to compliance to lifestyle changes to attain treatment goals and adherence to drug therapy. Men and women <71 years who had had a cardiac event were screened consecutively (509) from the medical records. Responders (392) were interviewed, examined and received a questionnaire. Three hundred and forty-seven patients answered the questionnaire regarding their general knowledge of risk factors for CHD, compliance to lifestyle changes to attain treatment goals and adherence to drug therapy. There were statistically significant correlations between general knowledge about risk factors for CHD and compliance to certain lifestyle changes: weight, physical activity, stress management, diet, attainment of lipid level goals and the likelihood of taking prescribed blood pressure-lowering drugs. General knowledge of risk factors had no correlation to blood glucose or blood pressure levels nor on smoking habits or treatment patterns for prescribed lipid- and blood glucose-lowering drugs. Knowledge correlates to patient behaviour with respect to some risk factors, which should be recognised in preventive programs.

Patterns and comparisons of human-induced changes in river flood impacts in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Stephanie; Sharma, Ashish; Sisson, Scott A.

2018-03-01

In this study, information extracted from the first global urban fluvial flood risk data set (Aqueduct) is investigated and visualized to explore current and projected city-level flood impacts driven by urbanization and climate change. We use a novel adaption of the self-organizing map (SOM) method, an artificial neural network proficient at clustering, pattern extraction, and visualization of large, multi-dimensional data sets. Prevalent patterns of current relationships and anticipated changes over time in the nonlinearly-related environmental and social variables are presented, relating urban river flood impacts to socioeconomic development and changing hydrologic conditions. Comparisons are provided between 98 individual cities. Output visualizations compare baseline and changing trends of city-specific exposures of population and property to river flooding, revealing relationships between the cities based on their relative map placements. Cities experiencing high (or low) baseline flood impacts on population and/or property that are expected to improve (or worsen), as a result of anticipated climate change and development, are identified and compared. This paper condenses and conveys large amounts of information through visual communication to accelerate the understanding of relationships between local urban conditions and global processes.

Differences in Pain Location, Intensity and Quality by Pain Pattern in Outpatients with Cancer

PubMed Central

Ngamkham, Srisuda; Holden, Janean E.; Wilkie, Diana J.

2013-01-01

Pain pattern represents how the individual’s pain changes temporally with activities or other factors. Understanding pain pattern is important for appropriate timing of pain interventions, but researchers have studied less the temporal aspects of cancer pain than pain location, intensity, and quality parameters. The study purpose was to explore differences in pain location, intensity, and quality by pattern groups in outpatients with cancer. We conducted a comparative, secondary data analysis of data collected from 1994 to 2007. 762 outpatients with cancer had completed the 0-to-10 Pain Intensity Number Scale and the McGill Pain Questionnaire to measure pain location, quality and pattern. From all possible combinations of the three types of pain patterns, we created seven pain pattern groups. The distribution of pain pattern was: pattern-1 (27%); pattern-2 (24%); pattern-3 (8%); pattern-4 (12%); pattern-5 (3%); pattern-6 (18%); and pattern-7 (8%). A statistically significant higher proportion of patients with continuous pain patterns (pattern 1, 4, 5, and 7) reported pain location in two or more sites. Patients with pattern 1, 4, and 7 reported statistically significant, higher worst pain mean scores than patients with pattern 2, 3, and 6 (not continuous descriptors). Patients with pattern7 reported statistically significant, higher mean scores (pain rating index-sensory and total number of words selected) than patients with pattern1, 2, 3, 4, and 6. Using pain pattern groups may help clinicians to understand temporal changes in cancer pain and to provide more effective pain management by recognizing the high risk if the pain is continuous. PMID:21512345

Changing pattern of landslide risk in Europe - The SafeLand project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B.

2012-04-01

The need to protect people and property with a changing pattern of landslide hazard and risk caused by climate change and changes in demography, and the reality for societies in Europe to live with the risk associated with natural hazards, were the motives for the project SafeLand: "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies." SafeLand is a large, integrating research project under the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme (FP7). The project started on 1 May 2009 and will end on 30 April 2012. It involves 27 partners from 12 European countries, and has international collaborators and advisers from China, India, USA, Japan and Hong Kong. SafeLand also involves 25 End-Users from 11 countries. SafeLand is coordinated by the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) at Norwegian Geotechnical Institute in Norway. Further information on the SafeLand project can be found at its web site http://safeland-fp7.eu/. Main results achieved in SafeLand include: - Various guidelines related to landslide triggering processes and run-out modelling. - Development and testing of several empirical methods for predicting the characteristics of threshold rainfall events for triggering of precipitation-induced landslides, and development of an empirical model for assessing the changes in landslide frequency (hazard) as a function of changes in the demography and population density. - Guideline for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment and zoning. - New methodologies for physical and societal vulnerability assessment. - Identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots for Europe. The results show clearly where areas with the largest landslide risk are located in Europe and the objective approach allows a ranking of the countries by exposed area and population. - Different regional and local climate model simulations over selected regions of Europe at spatial resolutions of 10x10 km and 2.8x2.8 km. These simulations were used to perform an extreme value analysis for trends in heavy precipitation events, and subsequent effects on landslide hazard and risk trends. - Guidelines for use of remote sensing techniques, monitoring and early warning systems. - Development of a prototype web-based "toolbox" of innovative and technically appropriate prevention and mitigation measures. The toolbox does a preliminary assessment and ranking of up to 60 structural and non-structural landslide risk mitigation options. - Case histories and "hotspots" of European Land¬slides have been collected and documented. Data for close to fifty potential case study sites have been compiled and summarized. Most of the case study sites are located in Europe (Italy, France, Norway, Switzerland, Austria, Andorra, and Romania); but they also include one site in Canada and one in India. Almost every type of landslide and every type of movement is represented in these sites. - Research on stakeholder workshops and participatory processes to involve the population exposed to landslide risk in the decision-making process for choosing the most appropriate risk mitigation measure(s).

Assessing Flood Risk at Nuclear Power Plants with an Uncertain Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wigmosta, M. S.; Vail, L. W.

2011-12-01

In 2010 a tsunami severely damaged the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan. As a result, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission directed that a systematic and methodical review of Commission processes and regulations be performed to determine whether the agency should make additional improvements to its regulatory system and to make recommendations to the Commission. Two of the recommendations of the Task Force created to inform the Commission were: establish a logical, systematic, and coherent regulatory framework for adequate protection that appropriately balances defense-in-depth and risk considerations and that the NRC require licensees to reevaluate and upgrade as necessary the design-basis flooding protection of structures, systems, and components for each operating reactor. These recommendations came at the same time as technical discussions about updating approaches to evaluate flood hazard were underway. These discussions included: consideration of climate nonstationarity in flood assessments; transitioning from PMP/PMF assessments to probabilistic flood analyses to better align with risk-informed decision making; and systematic consideration of combined events in flood risk analysis. There is no scientific basis to assume that shifts in long-term mean precipitation and temperature (such as is commonly derived from climate models) relate to flood probability. Flood mechanisms are often more complex and reflect climate pattern anomalies more than mean annual shifts. Instead of discounting historical data due to climatic nonstationarity, it is important to better understand the climate patterns that have triggered floods in the past and to look to climate forecasts to understand the likely changes in the frequency of those historical climate patterns with climate change. It is equally important to have a better understanding of whether climate change will result in flood-generating climate systems heretofore unknown in the particular locale. This presentation will provide a roadmap to ensuring that the flood hazards of existing and future nuclear power plants are well defined.

Mortality patterns among a Native American population in New York State.

PubMed

Michalek, A M; Mahoney, M C; Cummings, K M; Hanley, J; Snyder, R

1989-10-01

This study investigated patterns of mortality among a Native American tribe, the Seneca Nation of Indians (SNI). The names of 962 tribal members reported to have died in New York State between 1955 and the end of 1984 were identified through a review of tribal roll books maintained by the Seneca Nation. Positive matches were obtained for 796 (83%) of these individuals using New York State mortality files for the period under investigation. Standardized Proportionate Mortality Ratios (PMR) were computed for major causes of death based on cause-specific mortality patterns in the New York State population for each sex during the same time period. Significantly elevated risks of mortality were observed for all infectious diseases, tuberculosis, diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis, and accidents. Depressed mortality ratios were noted for deaths due to all cancers combined, and for cancers of the lung, pancreas, breast, and lymphatic/hematopoietic cancers. Changes in mortality risks over time were also observed.

Increasing atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration alleviate forest mortality risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yanlan; Parolari, Anthony J.; Kumar, Mukesh

Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry. By using a dynamic soil–plant–atmosphere model, mortality risks associated with hydraulic failure and stomatal closure for 13 temperate and tropical forest biomes across the globe are analyzed. The mortality risk is evaluated in response to both individual and combined changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonalmore » distribution, mean air temperature, specific humidity, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Model results show that the risk is predicted to significantly increase due to changes in precipitation and air temperature regime for the period 2050–2069. However, this increase may largely get alleviated by concurrent increases in atmospheric specific humidity and CO 2 concentration. The increase in mortality risk is expected to be higher for needleleaf forests than for broadleaf forests, as a result of disparity in hydraulic traits. These findings will further facilitate decisions about intervention and management of different forest types under changing climate.« less

Increasing atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration alleviate forest mortality risk

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yanlan; Parolari, Anthony J.; Kumar, Mukesh; ...

2017-08-28

Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry. By using a dynamic soil–plant–atmosphere model, mortality risks associated with hydraulic failure and stomatal closure for 13 temperate and tropical forest biomes across the globe are analyzed. The mortality risk is evaluated in response to both individual and combined changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonalmore » distribution, mean air temperature, specific humidity, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Model results show that the risk is predicted to significantly increase due to changes in precipitation and air temperature regime for the period 2050–2069. However, this increase may largely get alleviated by concurrent increases in atmospheric specific humidity and CO 2 concentration. The increase in mortality risk is expected to be higher for needleleaf forests than for broadleaf forests, as a result of disparity in hydraulic traits. These findings will further facilitate decisions about intervention and management of different forest types under changing climate.« less

Patterns of Yoga Practice and Physical Activity Following a Yoga Intervention for Adults With or at Risk for Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Alexander, Gina; Innes, Kim E.; Bourguignon, Cheryl; Bovbjerg, Viktor E.; Kulbok, Pamela; Taylor, Ann Gill

2012-01-01

Background The current study described patterns of yoga practice and examined differences in physical activity over time between individuals with or at risk for type 2 diabetes who completed an 8-week yoga intervention compared with controls. Methods A longitudinal comparative design measured the effect of a yoga intervention on yoga practice and physical activity, using data at baseline and postintervention months 3, 6, and 15. Results Disparate patterns of yoga practice occurred between intervention and control participants over time, but the subjective definition of yoga practice limits interpretation. Multilevel model estimates indicated that treatment group did not have a significant influence in the rate of change in physical activity over the study period. While age and education were not significant individual predictors, the inclusion of these variables in the model did improve fit. Conclusions Findings indicate that an 8-week yoga intervention had little effect on physical activity over time. Further research is necessary to explore the influence of yoga on behavioral health outcomes among individuals with or at risk for type 2 diabetes. PMID:22232506

Patterns of yoga practice and physical activity following a yoga intervention for adults with or at risk for type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Alexander, Gina; Innes, Kim E; Bourguignon, Cheryl; Bovbjerg, Viktor E; Kulbok, Pamela; Taylor, Ann Gill

2012-01-01

The current study described patterns of yoga practice and examined differences in physical activity over time between individuals with or at risk for type 2 diabetes who completed an 8-week yoga intervention compared with controls. A longitudinal comparative design measured the effect of a yoga intervention on yoga practice and physical activity, using data at baseline and postintervention months 3, 6, and 15. Disparate patterns of yoga practice occurred between intervention and control participants over time, but the subjective definition of yoga practice limits interpretation. Multilevel model estimates indicated that treatment group did not have a significant influence in the rate of change in physical activity over the study period. While age and education were not significant individual predictors, the inclusion of these variables in the model did improve fit. Findings indicate that an 8-week yoga intervention had little effect on physical activity over time. Further research is necessary to explore the influence of yoga on behavioral health outcomes among individuals with or at risk for type 2 diabetes.

A high-fat, high-glycaemic index, low-fibre dietary pattern is prospectively associated with type 2 diabetes in a British birth cohort.

PubMed

Pastorino, Silvia; Richards, Marcus; Pierce, Mary; Ambrosini, Gina L

2016-05-01

The combined association of dietary fat, glycaemic index (GI) and fibre with type 2 diabetes has rarely been investigated. The objective was to examine the relationship between a high-fat, high-GI, low-fibre dietary pattern across adult life and type 2 diabetes risk using reduced rank regression. Data were from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. Repeated measures of dietary intake estimated using 5-d diet diaries were available at the age of 36, 43 and 53 years for 1180 study members. Associations between dietary pattern scores at each age, as well as longitudinal changes in dietary pattern z-scores, and type 2 diabetes incidence (n 106) from 53 to 60-64 years were analysed. The high-fat, high-GI, low-fibre dietary pattern was characterised by low intakes of fruit, vegetables, low-fat dairy products and whole-grain cereals, and high intakes of white bread, fried potatoes, processed meat and animal fats. There was an increasing trend in OR for type 2 diabetes with increasing quintile of dietary pattern z-scores at the age of 43 years among women but not among men. Women in the highest z-score quintile at the age of 43 years had an OR for type 2 diabetes of 5·45 (95 % CI 2·01, 14·79). Long-term increases in this dietary pattern, independently of BMI and waist circumference, were also detrimental among women: for each 1 sd unit increase in dietary pattern z-score between 36 and 53 years, the OR for type 2 diabetes was 1·67 (95 % CI 1·20, 2·43) independently of changes in BMI and waist circumference in the same periods. A high-fat, high-GI, low-fibre dietary pattern was associated with increased type 2 diabetes risk in middle-aged British women but not in men.

Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.

PubMed

Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S

2015-06-15

The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders.

Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.

2018-01-01

Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present in damage reporting errors, claims from private insurers and adaptation effects after damaging events. As for the latter, preliminary results indicate that investments regularly occur after big events, which may skew subsequent damage claims. Their effectiveness, though, needs to be analyzed in future research.

Differences in gay men's AIDS risk knowledge and behavior patterns in high and low AIDS prevalence cities.

PubMed

St Lawrence, J S; Hood, H V; Brasfield, T; Kelly, J A

1989-01-01

Several studies have found reductions in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) risk practices among gay men in high AIDS-prevalence cities since the start of the AIDS crisis. Much less is known about risk behavior patterns among gay men in smaller cities, where AIDS cases are less common and the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection is relatively lower. In the study, men entering gay bars in three cities, one large and two small, completed anonymous surveys of sexual practices and AIDS risk knowledge. Men in high AIDS-prevalence areas were found to have had a greater number of sexual partners, were more knowledgeable about AIDS, were much more likely to engage in low-risk practices (such as mutual masturbation or body rubbing), and had unprotected anal intercourse less frequently than gay men in smaller cities. The most common sexual activity among gay men in the larger city was mutual masturbation, a low-risk practice. The most common sexual activity among gay men in the smaller cities was unprotected anal intercourse. Increased efforts are needed to educate gay men and to promote risk behavior changes among those living in smaller cities and in communities outside the prominent AIDS epicenters.

Drinking Like an Adult? Trajectories of Alcohol Use Patterns Before and After College Graduation.

PubMed

Arria, Amelia M; Caldeira, Kimberly M; Allen, Hannah K; Vincent, Kathryn B; Bugbee, Brittany A; O'Grady, Kevin E

2016-03-01

College students who engage in high-risk drinking patterns are thought to "mature out" of these patterns as they transition to adult roles. College graduation is an important milestone demarcating this transition. We examine longitudinal changes in quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption between the college years and the 4 years after graduation and explore variation in these changes by gender and race/ethnicity. Participants were 1,128 college graduates enrolled in a longitudinal prospective study of health-risk behaviors. Standard measures of alcohol consumption were gathered during 8 annual personal interviews (76 to 91% annual follow-up). Graduation dates were culled from administrative data and self-report. Spline models, in which separate trajectories were modeled before and after the "knot" of college graduation, were fit to 8 annual observations of past-year alcohol use frequency and quantity (typical number of drinks/drinking day). Frequency increased linearly pregraduation, slightly decreased postgraduation, and then rebounded to pregraduation levels. Pregraduation frequency increased more steeply among individuals who drank more heavily at college entry. Quantity decreased linearly during college, followed by quadratic decreases after graduation. Results suggest that the postcollege "maturing-out" phenomenon might be attributable to decreases in alcohol quantity but not frequency. High-frequency drinking patterns that develop during college appear to persist several years postgraduation. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Drinking like an adult? Trajectories of alcohol use patterns before and after college graduation

PubMed Central

Arria, Amelia M.; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Allen, Hannah K.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; Bugbee, Brittany A.; O’Grady, Kevin E.

2015-01-01

Background College students who engage in high-risk drinking patterns are thought to “mature out” of these patterns as they transition to adult roles. College graduation is an important milestone demarcating this transition. We examine longitudinal changes in quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption between the college years and the four years after graduation; and explore variation in these changes by gender and race/ethnicity. Methods Participants were 1128 college graduates enrolled in a longitudinal prospective study of health-risk behaviors. Standard measures of alcohol consumption were gathered during eight annual personal interviews (76% to 91% annual follow-up). Graduation dates were culled from administrative data and self-report. Spline models, in which separate trajectories were modeled before and after the “knot” of college graduation, were fit to eight annual observations of past-year alcohol use frequency and quantity (typical number of drinks/drinking day). Results Frequency increased linearly pre-graduation, slightly decreased post-graduation, and then rebounded to pre-graduation levels. Pre-graduation frequency increased more steeply among individuals who drank more heavily at college entry. Quantity decreased linearly during college, followed by quadratic decreases after graduation. Conclusions Results suggest that the post-college “maturing out” phenomenon might be attributable to decreases in alcohol quantity but not frequency. High-frequency drinking patterns that develop during college appear to persist several years post-graduation. PMID:26893253

Socioeconomic and Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Cancer Mortality, Incidence, and Survival in the United States, 1950–2014: Over Six Decades of Changing Patterns and Widening Inequalities

PubMed Central

Jemal, Ahmedin

2017-01-01

We analyzed socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in US mortality, incidence, and survival rates from all-cancers combined and major cancers from 1950 to 2014. Census-based deprivation indices were linked to national mortality and cancer data for area-based socioeconomic patterns in mortality, incidence, and survival. The National Longitudinal Mortality Study was used to analyze individual-level socioeconomic and racial/ethnic patterns in mortality. Rates, risk-ratios, least squares, log-linear, and Cox regression were used to examine trends and differentials. Socioeconomic patterns in all-cancer, lung, and colorectal cancer mortality changed dramatically over time. Individuals in more deprived areas or lower education and income groups had higher mortality and incidence rates than their more affluent counterparts, with excess risk being particularly marked for lung, colorectal, cervical, stomach, and liver cancer. Education and income inequalities in mortality from all-cancers, lung, prostate, and cervical cancer increased during 1979–2011. Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality widened as mortality in lower socioeconomic groups/areas declined more slowly. Mortality was higher among Blacks and lower among Asian/Pacific Islanders and Hispanics than Whites. Cancer patient survival was significantly lower in more deprived neighborhoods and among most ethnic-minority groups. Cancer mortality and incidence disparities may reflect inequalities in smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, diet, alcohol use, screening, and treatment. PMID:28408935

Pericentral retinopathy and racial differences in hydroxychloroquine toxicity.

PubMed

Melles, Ronald B; Marmor, Michael F

2015-01-01

To describe patterns of hydroxychloroquine retinopathy distinct from the classic parafoveal (bull's eye) maculopathy. Retrospective case series. Patients from a large multi-provider group practice and a smaller university referral practice diagnosed with hydroxychloroquine retinopathy. Patients with widespread or "end-stage" retinopathy were excluded. Review of ophthalmic studies (fundus photography, spectral-domain optical coherence tomography, fundus autofluorescence, multifocal electroretinography, visual fields) and classification of retinopathy into 1 of 3 patterns: parafoveal (retinal changes 2°-6° from the fovea), pericentral (retinal changes ≥ 8° from the fovea), or mixed (retinal changes in both parafoveal and pericentral areas). Relative frequency of different patterns of hydroxychloroquine retinopathy and comparison of risk factors. Of 201 total patients (18% Asian) with hydroxychloroquine retinopathy, 153 (76%) had typical parafoveal changes, 24 (12%) also had a zone of pericentral damage, and 24 (12%) had pericentral retinopathy without any parafoveal damage. Pericentral retinopathy alone was seen in 50% of Asian patients but only in 2% of white patients. Patients with the pericentral pattern were taking hydroxychloroquine for a somewhat longer duration (19.5 vs. 15.0 years, P < 0.01) and took a larger cumulative dose (2186 vs. 1813 g, P = 0.02) than patients with the parafoveal pattern, but they were diagnosed at a more severe stage of toxicity. Hydroxychloroquine retinopathy does not always develop in a parafoveal (bull's eye) pattern, and a pericentral pattern of damage is especially prevalent among Asian patients. Screening practices may need to be adjusted to recognize pericentral and parafoveal hydroxychloroquine retinopathy. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DNA Methylation Patterns in Normal Tissue Correlate more Strongly with Breast Cancer Status than Copy-Number Variants.

PubMed

Gao, Yang; Widschwendter, Martin; Teschendorff, Andrew E

2018-05-04

Normal tissue at risk of neoplastic transformation is characterized by somatic mutations, copy-number variation and DNA methylation changes. It is unclear however, which type of alteration may be more informative of cancer risk. We analyzed genome-wide DNA methylation and copy-number calls from the same DNA assay in a cohort of healthy breast samples and age-matched normal samples collected adjacent to breast cancer. Using statistical methods to adjust for cell type heterogeneity, we show that DNA methylation changes can discriminate normal-adjacent from normal samples better than somatic copy-number variants. We validate this important finding in an independent dataset. These results suggest that DNA methylation alterations in the normal cell of origin may offer better cancer risk prediction and early detection markers than copy-number changes. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Cancer Risk Information Sharing: The Experience of Individuals Receiving Genetic Counseling for BRCA1/2 Mutations

PubMed Central

Chopra, Ishveen; Kelly, Kimberly M.

2017-01-01

Genetic counseling and testing for familial cancer is a unique context for the communication of risk information in the family. This study utilized a theoretical framework based on the family systems perspective to understand intra-familial cancer risk communication patterns in the Ashkenazi Jewish population. Individuals (n=120) at an elevated risk for BRCA1/2 mutations were included. Change in communication patterns over time was assessed using McNemar tests. Associations with communication patterns were assessed with multivariable logistic regression. Overall, the proportion of participants encouraged by others significantly (P<0.001) increased from pre- to post-genetic counseling. A higher proportion of participants were encouraged by female family members compared to male family members. Participants who were older, had no personal history of cancer, and had a higher cancer risk perception were more likely to be encouraged by others for genetic testing. Participant’s intent to encourage family members for genetic testing from pre-counseling to post-receipt of genetic test results decreased by 16.7%. Participants who had no personal history of cancer and had informative test results for a BRCA1/2 mutation were more likely to encourage other family members for genetic testing. In addition, qualitative findings suggested that closeness among family members, concern for family, especially future generations, and cognizance about cancer risk facilitates information sharing and encouragement for genetic testing. Our findings indicate that intra-familial cancer risk communication varies with structure of family relationships, where genetic counseling played an important role in improving intra-familial cancer risk communication. PMID:28112991

Different Patterns of Risk Reducing Decisions in Affected or Unaffected BRCA Pathogenic Variant Carriers.

PubMed

Lee, Eun-Gyeong; Kang, Hyok Jo; Lim, Myong Cheol; Park, Boyoung; Park, Soo Jin; Jung, So-Youn; Lee, Seeyoun; Kang, Han-Sung; Park, Sang-Yoon; Park, Boram; Joo, Jungnam; Han, Jai Hong; Kong, Sun-Young; Lee, Eun Sook

2018-05-04

The purpose of this study was to investigate decision patterns to reduce the risks of BRCA-related breast and gynecologic cancers in carriers of BRCA pathogenic variants. We found a change in risk-reducing (RR) management patterns after December 2012, when the National Health Insurance System (NHIS) of Korea began to pay for BRCA testing and risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) in pathogenic-variant carriers. The study group consisted of 992 patients, including 705 with breast cancer (BC), 23 with ovarian cancer (OC), 10 with both, and 254 relatives of high-risk patients who underwent BRCA testing at the National Cancer Center of Korea from January 2008 to December 2016.We analyzed patterns of and factors in RR management. Of the 992 patients, 220 (22.2%) were carriers of BRCA pathogenic variants. About 92.3% (203/220) had a family history of BC and/or OC, which significantly differed between BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers (p<0.001). All 41 male carriers chose surveillance. Of the 179 female carriers, 59 (71.1%) of the 83 carriers with BC and the 39 (49.4%) of 79 unaffected carriers underwent RR management. None of the carriers affected with OC underwent RR management. Of the management types, RRSO had the highest rate (42.5%) of patient choice. The rate of risk-reducing surgery was significantly higher after 2013 than before 2013 (46.3% [74/160] vs. 31.6% [6/19], p<0.001). RRSO was the preferred management for carriers of BRCA pathogenic variants. The most important factors in treatment choice were NHIS reimbursement and/or the severity of illness.

Changing Waters: Are Climate-Driven Changes in Discharge Regimes Increasing Eutrophication Risk in the Great Lakes Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Meter, K. J.; Basu, N. B.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) has experienced increasing precipitation, warming temperatures, and earlier spring thaws. During this same period, the region has been plagued by problems of water quality, with Lake Erie, in particular, experiencing a re-emergence of major eutrophication events, including an increased incidence of Harmful Algal Blooms. Although the prevailing paradigm is that eutrophication of inland waters is directly correlated with total phosphorus (P) inputs, recent decades have seen a decrease in the total P being delivered to the lakes from contributing watersheds. This apparent disconnect between inputs and outputs, i.e. decreasing P inputs but increased eutrophication, has led some to speculate that loading of total P is an insufficient metric of eutrophication risk and that increasing ratios of soluble reactive P (SRP) in relation to the total P (TP) entering inland water bodies may be a more important driver of algal growth. We hypothesize that changes in seasonal discharge patterns may be contributing to changes in the forms of P being delivered to the lakes, potentially due to changes in delivery pathways-for example surface pathways are more dominant in spring snowmelt, while shallow subsurface and tile pathways are more dominant during winter freeze-thaw events. To test this hypothesis, we have utilized data from more than 200 gaging stations across the GLB to explore the influences of climate and changing hydrologic patterns on biogeochemical processing and transport within the GLB. More specifically, we have asked the following questions: 1) How are discharge patterns changing across the GLB? 2) Are SRP:TP ratios increasing in subwatersheds of the GLB, and what are the spatial patterns in these changes? 3) Are climate-related changes in seasonality, e.g. earlier snowmelt, decreasing snowfall, longer growing seasons, linked to increased ratios of bioavailable P? Our results suggest that changes in precipitation as well as milder winters have led to a seasonal homogenization of discharge within the GLB, with decreases in spring flows but significant increases in winter discharge. Our results also show significant increases in SRP:TP ratios across the GLB, largely driven by the increased winter discharge and high SRP concentrations during the winter months.

Prescribing Patterns in Outpatient Clinics of Township Hospitals in China: A Comparative Study before and after the 2009 Health System Reform.

PubMed

Ding, Ding; Pan, Qingxia; Shan, Linghan; Liu, Chaojie; Gao, Lijun; Hao, Yanhua; Song, Jian; Ning, Ning; Cui, Yu; Li, Ye; Qi, Xinye; Liang, Chao; Wu, Qunhong; Liu, Guoxiang

2016-07-05

China introduced a series of health reforms in 2009, including a national essential medicines policy and a medical insurance system for primary care institutions. This study aimed to determine the changing prescribing patterns associated with those reforms in township hospitals. A multi-stage stratified random cluster sampling method was adopted to identify 29 township hospitals from six counties in three provinces. A total of 2899 prescriptions were collected from the participating township hospitals using a systematic random sampling strategy. Seven prescribing indicators were calculated and compared between 2008 and 2013, assessing use of medicines (antibiotics and adrenal corticosteroids) and polypharmacy, administration route of medicines (injections), and affordability of medicines. Significant changes in prescribing patterns were found. The average number of medicines and costs per-prescription dropped by about 50%. The percentage of prescriptions requiring antibiotics declined from 54% to 38%. The percentage of prescriptions requiring adrenal corticosteroid declined from 14% to 4%. The percentage of prescriptions requiring injections declined from 54% to 25%. Despite similar changing patterns, significant regional differences were observed. Significant changes in prescribing patterns are evident in township hospitals in China. Overprescription of antibiotics, injections and adrenal corticosteroids has been reduced. However, salient regional disparities still exist. Further studies are needed to determine potential shifts in the risk of the inappropriate use of medicines from primary care settings to metropolitan hospitals.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Bumblebees Foraging under Predation Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenz, Friedrich; Ings, Thomas C.; Chittka, Lars; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Klages, Rainer

2012-03-01

We analyze 3D flight paths of bumblebees searching for nectar in a laboratory experiment with and without predation risk from artificial spiders. For the flight velocities we find mixed probability distributions reflecting the access to the food sources while the threat posed by the spiders shows up only in the velocity correlations. The bumblebees thus adjust their flight patterns spatially to the environment and temporally to predation risk. Key information on response to environmental changes is contained in temporal correlation functions, as we explain by a simple emergent model.

One Health – a strategy for resilience in a changing arctic

PubMed Central

Ruscio, Bruce A.; Brubaker, Michael; Glasser, Joshua; Hueston, Will; Hennessy, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

The circumpolar north is uniquely vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. While international Arctic collaboration on health has enhanced partnerships and advanced the health of inhabitants, significant challenges lie ahead. One Health is an approach that considers the connections between the environment, plant, animal and human health. Understanding this is increasingly critical in assessing the impact of global climate change on the health of Arctic inhabitants. The effects of climate change are complex and difficult to predict with certainty. Health risks include changes in the distribution of infectious disease, expansion of zoonotic diseases and vectors, changing migration patterns, impacts on food security and changes in water availability and quality, among others. A regional network of diverse stakeholder and transdisciplinary specialists from circumpolar nations and Indigenous groups can advance the understanding of complex climate-driven health risks and provide community-based strategies for early identification, prevention and adaption of health risks in human, animals and environment. We propose a regional One Health approach for assessing interactions at the Arctic human–animal–environment interface to enhance the understanding of, and response to, the complexities of climate change on the health of the Arctic inhabitants. PMID:26333722

Impacts of road network expansion on landscape ecological risk in a megacity, China: A case study of Beijing.

PubMed

Mo, Wenbo; Wang, Yong; Zhang, Yingxue; Zhuang, Dafang

2017-01-01

Road networks affect the spatial structure of urban landscapes, and with continuous expansion, it will also exert more widespread influences on the regional ecological environment. With the support of geographic information system (GIS) technology, based on the application of various spatial analysis methods, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of road networks and landscape ecological risk in the research area of Beijing to explore the impacts of road network expansion on ecological risk in the urban landscape. The results showed the following: 1) In the dynamic processes of change in the overall landscape pattern, the changing differences in landscape indices of various landscape types were obvious and were primarily related to land-use type. 2) For the changes in a time series, the expansion of the road kernel area was consistent with the extension of the sub-low-risk area in the urban center, but some differences were observed during different stages of development. 3) For the spatial position, the expanding changes in the road kernel area were consistent with the grade changes of the urban central ecological risk, primarily because both had a certain spatial correlation with the expressways. 4) The influence of road network expansion on the ecological risk in the study area had obvious spatial differences, which may be closely associated with the distribution of ecosystem types. Copyright © 2016 Office national des forêts. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of midday moderate-intensity exercise on postexercise hypoglycemia risk in individuals with type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Davey, Raymond J; Howe, Warwick; Paramalingam, Nirubasini; Ferreira, Luis D; Davis, Elizabeth A; Fournier, Paul A; Jones, Timothy W

2013-07-01

Exercise increases the risk of hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes. Recently we reported a biphasic increase in glucose requirements to maintain euglycemia after late-afternoon exercise, suggesting a unique pattern of delayed risk for nocturnal hypoglycemia. This study examined whether this pattern of glucose requirements occurs if exercise is performed earlier in the day. Ten adolescents with type 1 diabetes underwent a hyperinsulinemic euglycemic glucose clamp on 2 different occasions during which they either rested or performed 45 minutes of moderate-intensity exercise at midday. Glucose was infused to maintain euglycemia for 17 hours after exercise. The glucose infusion rate (GIR) to maintain euglycemia, glucose rates of appearance and disappearance, and levels of counterregulatory hormones were compared between conditions. GIRs to maintain euglycemia were not significantly different between groups at baseline (9.8 ± 1.4 and 9.5 ± 1.6 g/h before the exercise and rest conditions, respectively) and did not change in the rest condition throughout the study. In contrast, GIR increased more than 3-fold during exercise (from 9.8 ± 1.4 to 30.6 ± 4.7 g/h), fell within the first hour of recovery, but remained elevated until 11 hours after exercise before returning to baseline levels. The pattern of glucose requirements to maintain euglycemia in response to moderate-intensity exercise performed at midday suggests that the risk of exercise-mediated hypoglycemia increases during and for several hours after moderate-intensity exercise, with no evidence of a biphasic pattern of postexercise risk of hypoglycemia.

Respiratory Deposition of Fine and Coarse Particles during Moderate Exercise

EPA Science Inventory

During exercise breathing patterns change by increasing ventilation rate and this has a direct impact on risk to exposure to ambient pollutants. Although the number of people increases participating in more active life styles, specific data for lung deposition of particulate matt...

Predictiveness of Disease Risk in a Global Outreach Tourist Setting in Thailand Using Meteorological Data and Vector-Borne Disease Incidences

PubMed Central

Ninphanomchai, Suwannapa; Chansang, Chitti; Hii, Yien Ling; Rocklöv, Joacim; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2014-01-01

Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate. PMID:25325356

Population structure and infectious disease risk in southern Africa.

PubMed

Uren, Caitlin; Möller, Marlo; van Helden, Paul D; Henn, Brenna M; Hoal, Eileen G

2017-06-01

The KhoeSan populations are the earliest known indigenous inhabitants of southern Africa. The relatively recent expansion of Bantu-speaking agropastoralists, as well as European colonial settlement along the south-west coast, dramatically changed patterns of genetic diversity in a region which had been largely isolated for thousands of years. Owing to this unique history, population structure in southern Africa reflects both the underlying KhoeSan genetic diversity as well as differential recent admixture. This population structure has a wide range of biomedical and sociocultural implications; such as changes in disease risk profiles. Here, we consolidate information from various population genetic studies that characterize admixture patterns in southern Africa with an aim to better understand differences in adverse disease phenotypes observed among groups. Our review confirms that ancestry has a direct impact on an individual's immune response to infectious diseases. In addition, we emphasize the importance of collaborative research, especially for populations in southern Africa that have a high incidence of potentially fatal infectious diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis.

The changing patterns of psychosocial exposures at work in the south of Europe: Spain as a labor market laboratory.

PubMed

Utzet, Mireia; Moncada, Salvador; Molinero, Emilia; Llorens, Clara; Moreno, Neus; Navarro, Albert

2014-09-01

To examine the pattern of psychosocial risk exposures at work among wage-earners in Spain in 2005 and 2010, and to analyze changes in exposure inequalities by gender and job category. Psychosocial exposures were compared using the COPSOQ-ISTAS21 method, based on two surveys representative of the Spanish wage-earning population (2005 and 2010). Statistical analysis was conducted using correspondence analysis. There was an increase in exposure to high Double Presence, low Social Support, high Work Pace, and high Insecurity about finding a job; and reduction in exposure to high Insecurity about losing a job, and to high Insecurity over worsening of employment conditions. A gender- and occupation-related gradient was maintained. Although this study analyzes wage-earner "survivors" after the outbreak of the current economic crisis, it shows a worsening of harmful exposures to some psychosocial risks. In a context of job destruction, concerns about worsening working conditions appear to be subordinate to insecurity about job loss. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predictiveness of disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting in Thailand using meteorological data and vector-borne disease incidences.

PubMed

Ninphanomchai, Suwannapa; Chansang, Chitti; Hii, Yien Ling; Rocklöv, Joacim; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2014-10-16

Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate.

Month of birth and survival to age 105+: evidence from the age validation study of German semi-supercentenarians.

PubMed

Doblhammer, Gabriele; Scholz, Rembrandt; Maier, Heiner

2005-10-01

Using data from Germany, we examine if month of birth influences survival up to age 105. Since age reporting at the highest ages is notoriously unreliable we draw on age-validated information from a huge age validation project of 1487 alleged German semi-supercentenarians aged 105+. We use month of birth as an exogenous indicator for seasonal changes in the environment around the time of birth. We find that the seasonal distribution of birth dates changes with age. For 925 age-validated semi-supercentenarians the seasonality is more pronounced than at the time of their birth (1880-1900). Among the December-born the relative risk of survival from birth to age 105+is 16% higher than the average, among the June-born, 23% lower. The month-of-birth pattern in the survival risk of the German semi-supercentenarians resembles closely the month-of-birth pattern in remaining life expectancy at age 50 in Denmark.

Risk factors of urinary tract infection in pregnancy.

PubMed

Haider, Gulfareen; Zehra, Nishat; Munir, Aftab Afroze; Haider, Ambreen

2010-03-01

To determine the frequency, risk factors and pattern of urinary complaints during pregnancy. A descriptive study was conducted in the Obstetric and Gynaecology Department of Isra University Hospital, Hyderabad from 1st January to 30th August 2008. Total 232 women were selected to ascertain the frequency and pattern of urinary symptoms as well as the risk factors of urinary tract infection (UTI) such as age, parity, education, past history of UTI and haemoglobin among women attending an antenatal clinic. All pregnant women irrespective of age, parity and gestational age were included, while women with known underlying renal pathology, chronic renal disease, renal transplant, diabetes or taking immunosuppressant therapy were excluded. Informed consent was taken and data collected on a self designed proforma. All the women underwent complete examination of urine. Dipstick test was performed on midstream urine and urine was cultured incase of positive dipstick test and women with urinary symptoms. Data was analyzed on SPSS version 11. Odds ratio and 95% confidence interval were calculated among the categorical parameters by applying the Fisher's exact test. Out of 232 women, 108(46.5%) reported urinary symptoms which were due to pregnancy induced changes on urinary system as no growth was obtained on urine culture, while 10 (4.3%) were due to underlying UTI. Most common urinary symptom in these women was abnormal voiding pattern 85 (40.3%) followed by irritative symptoms and voiding difficulties. Illiteracy, history of sexual activity, low socioeconomic (monthly income < Rs. 10,000 / month) group, past history of UTI and multiparity were found to be risk factors for UTI in these women. On complete urine examination, 222 (95.6%) patients either did not reveal any pus cells or had less than 5 WBC/HPF. Out of 108 cultures, only 10 (4.3%) specimens showed growth. E-coli was the most commonly detected organism 7 (3%) followed by S-aureus in 3 (1.3%). The common urinary symptoms encountered in the studied women were abnormal voiding pattern followed by irritative symptoms. Majority of urinary symptoms were due to pregnancy related changes in the urinary system. Past history of UTI, sexual activity, lower socioeconomic group and multi parity were significant risk factors for UTI.

Histology-specific risks in testicular cancer in immigrants to Sweden.

PubMed

Hemminki, Kari; Mousavi, Seyed Mohsen; Brandt, Andreas; Ji, Jianguang; Sundquist, Jan

2010-06-01

The changes of cancer incidence upon immigration have been used as an estimator of environmental influence on cancer risk. The previous immigrant studies have indicated that the origins of testicular cancer are at an early age in life, probably in the intrauterine period. We wanted to reexamine the critical periods on histology-specific testicular cancer in sons of immigrants to Sweden. We used the nationwide Swedish Family-Cancer Database to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for testicular cancer in sons of parents immigrating to Sweden from low- and high-risk countries compared with the native Swedes. Among the large immigrant groups, the SIRs for sons of two Finnish and Asian parents were decreased if the sons were born outside Sweden. The sons of a Danish immigrant couple showed an increased risk of testicular cancer. The changes in SIR were most systematic for seminoma. The present patterns of testicular cancer risk among sons of immigrants point to the early environmental risk factors, which influence the risk probably after the intrauterine period. These factors appear to influence seminoma risk in a more enduring way than they influence non-seminoma.

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa.

PubMed

Redding, David W; Tiedt, Sonia; Lo Iacono, Gianni; Bett, Bernard; Jones, Kate E

2017-07-19

Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'. © 2017 The Authors.

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. PMID:28584173

Association of 1-y changes in diet pattern with cardiovascular disease risk factors and adipokines: results from the 1-y randomized Oslo Diet and Exercise Study.

PubMed

Jacobs, David R; Sluik, Diewertje; Rokling-Andersen, Merethe H; Anderssen, Sigmund A; Drevon, Christian A

2009-02-01

We hypothesized that favorable changes in dietary patterns would lead to a reduction in body size and an improvement in metabolic status. The objective was to study changes in diet patterns relative to changes in body size, blood pressure, and circulating concentrations of lipids, glucose, insulin, adiponectin, and other cytokines in the context of a 1-y randomized intervention study. For 1 y, 187 men aged 45 +/- 2 y, approximately 50% of whom met the criteria of the metabolic syndrome, were randomly assigned to a diet protocol (n = 45), an exercise protocol (n = 48), a protocol of diet plus exercise (n = 58), or a control protocol (n = 36). A previously defined a priori diet score was created by summing tertile rankings of 35 food group variables; a higher score generally reflected recommended dietary changes in the trial (mean +/- SD at baseline: 31 +/- 6.5; range: 15-47). Over the study year, the diet score increased by approximately 2 +/- 5.5 in both diet groups, with a decrease of an equivalent amount in the exercise and control groups. The weight change was -3.5 +/- 0.6 kg/10-point change in diet score (P < 0.0001), similarly within each intervention group, independently of the change in energy intake or baseline age and smoking status. Weight change was attenuated but remained significant after adjustment for intervention group and percentage body fat. Subjects with an increased diet score had more favorable changes in other body size variables, systolic blood pressure, and blood lipid, glucose, insulin, and adiponectin concentrations. Change in diet score was unrelated to resistin and several cytokines. The change toward a more favorable diet pattern was associated with improved body size and metabolic profile.

Contradicting habitat type-extinction risk relationships between living and fossil amphibians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tietje, Melanie; Rödel, Mark-Oliver

2017-05-01

Trait analysis has become a crucial tool for assessing the extinction risk of species. While some extinction risk-trait relationships have been often identical between different living taxa, a temporal comparison of fossil taxa with related current taxa was rarely considered. However, we argue that it is important to know if extinction risk-trait relations are constant or changing over time. Herein we investigated the influence of habitat type on the persistence length of amphibian species. Living amphibians are regarded as the most threatened group of terrestrial vertebrates and thus of high interest to conservationists. Species from different habitat types show differences in extinction risk, i.e. species depending on flowing waters being more threatened than those breeding in stagnant sites. After assessing the quality of the available amphibian fossil data, we show that today's habitat type-extinction risk relationship is reversed compared to fossil amphibians, former taxa persisting longer when living in rivers and streams, thus suggesting a change of effect direction of this trait. Neither differences between amphibian orders nor environmentally caused preservation effects could explain this pattern. We argue this change to be most likely a result of anthropogenic influence, which turned a once favourable strategy into a disadvantage.

Risk assessments of regional climate change over Europe: generation of probabilistic ensemble and uncertainty assessment for EURO-CODEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, J.; Kopp, R. E.

2017-12-01

Quantitative risk analysis of regional climate change is crucial for risk management and impact assessment of climate change. Two major challenges to assessing the risks of climate change are: CMIP5 model runs, which drive EURO-CODEX downscaling runs, do not cover the full range of uncertainty of future projections; Climate models may underestimate the probability of tail risks (i.e. extreme events). To overcome the difficulties, this study offers a viable avenue, where a set of probabilistic climate ensemble is generated using the Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) method. The probabilistic ensembles for temperature and precipitation are used to assess the range of uncertainty covered by five bias-corrected simulations from the high-resolution (0.11º) EURO-CODEX database, which are selected by the PESETA (The Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) III project. Results show that the distribution of SMME ensemble is notably wider than both distribution of raw ensemble of GCMs and the spread of the five EURO-CORDEX in RCP8.5. Tail risks are well presented by the SMME ensemble. Both SMME ensemble and EURO-CORDEX projections are aggregated to administrative level, and are integrated into impact functions of PESETA III to assess climate risks in Europe. To further evaluate the uncertainties introduced by the downscaling process, we compare the 5 runs from EURO-CORDEX with runs from the corresponding GCMs. Time series of regional mean, spatial patterns, and climate indices are examined for the future climate (2080-2099) deviating from the present climate (1981-2010). The downscaling processes do not appear to be trend-preserving, e.g. the increase in regional mean temperature from EURO-CORDEX is slower than that from the corresponding GCM. The spatial pattern comparison reveals that the differences between each pair of GCM and EURO-CORDEX are small in winter. In summer, the temperatures of EURO-CORDEX are generally lower than those of GCMs, while the drying trends in precipitation of EURO-CORDEX are smaller than those of GCMs. Climate indices are significantly affected by bias-correction and downscaling process. Our study provides valuable information for selecting climate indices in different regions over Europe.

Utilizing Electronic Medical Records to Discover Changing Trends of Medical Behaviors Over Time*

PubMed Central

Yin, Liangying; Dong, Wei; He, Chunhua; Duan, Huilong

2017-01-01

Summary Objectives Medical behaviors are playing significant roles in the delivery of high quality and cost-effective health services. Timely discovery of changing frequencies of medical behaviors is beneficial for the improvement of health services. The main objective of this work is to discover the changing trends of medical behaviors over time. Methods This study proposes a two-steps approach to detect essential changing patterns of medical behaviors from Electronic Medical Records (EMRs). In detail, a probabilistic topic model, i.e., Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), is firstly applied to disclose yearly treatment patterns in regard to the risk stratification of patients from a large volume of EMRs. After that, the changing trends by comparing essential/critical medical behaviors in a specific time period are detected and analyzed, including changes of significant patient features with their values, and changes of critical treatment interventions with their occurring time stamps. Results We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 12,152 patient cases with a time range of 10 years. Totally, 135 patients features and 234 treatment interventions in three treatment patterns were selected to detect their changing trends. In particular, evolving trends of yearly occurring probabilities of the selected medical behaviors were categorized into six content changing patterns (i.e, 112 growing, 123 declining, 43 up-down, 16 down-up, 35 steady, and 40 jumping), using the proposed approach. Besides, changing trends of execution time of treatment interventions were classified into three occurring time changing patterns (i.e., 175 early-implemented, 50 steady-implemented and 9 delay-implemented). Conclusions Experimental results show that our approach has an ability to utilize EMRs to discover essential evolving trends of medical behaviors, and thus provide significant potential to be further explored for health services redesign and improvement. PMID:28474729

Genetic profiling links changing sea-ice to shifting beluga whale migration patterns

PubMed Central

Mahoney, Andrew R.; Suydam, Robert; Quakenbush, Lori; Whiting, Alex; Lowry, Lloyd; Harwood, Lois

2016-01-01

There is increasing concern over how Arctic fauna will adapt to climate related changes in sea-ice. We used long-term sighting and genetic data on beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) in conjunction with multi-decadal patterns of sea-ice in the Pacific Arctic to investigate the influence of sea-ice on spring migration and summer residency patterns. Substantial variations in sea-ice conditions were detected across seasons, years and sub-regions, revealing ice–ocean dynamics more complex than Arctic-wide trends suggest. This variation contrasted with a highly consistent pattern of migration and residency by several populations, indicating that belugas can accommodate widely varying sea-ice conditions to perpetuate philopatry to coastal migration destinations. However, a number of anomalous migration and residency events were detected and coincided with anomalous ice years, and in one case with an increase in killer whale (Orcinus orca) sightings and reported predation on beluga whales. The behavioural shifts were likely driven by changing sea-ice and associated changes in resource dispersion and predation risk. Continued reductions in sea-ice may result in increased predation at key aggregation areas and shifts in beluga whale behaviour with implications for population viability, ecosystem structure and the subsistence cultures that rely on them.

Concern About Petrochemical Health Risk Before and After a Refinery Explosion

PubMed Central

Cutchin, Malcolm P.; Martin, Kathryn Remmes; Owen, Steven V.; Goodwin, James S.

2014-01-01

On March 23, 2005, a large explosion at an oil refinery in Texas City, Texas caused 15 deaths and approximately 170 injuries. Little is known about how such an industrial accident influences concern about environmental health risks. We used measures of environmental health concern about nearby petrochemical production with a sample of Texas City residents to understand patterns of concern and change in concern after an industrial accident, as well as individual and contextual factors associated with those patterns. Survey interviews with residents of Texas City, Texas (N =315) both pre- and postexplosion using a brief Concern About Petrochemical Health Risk Scale (CAPHRS) and other questions were used to collect pertinent predictor information. CAPHRS baseline, postexplosion, and change scores were compared and modeled using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and a mixed model. Higher preexplosion CAPHRS scores were predicted by younger adults, foreign-born Hispanics, non-Hispanic blacks, lower- and middle-income groups, and those who live with someone who has worked at the petrochemical plants. Higher CAPHRS change scores are predicted by the same variables (except income), as well as proximity to, or perception of, the explosion, and reports of neighborhood damage. Findings suggest these groups’ concern scores could indicate a greater vulnerability to psychological and physical harm generated by concern and stress arising from local petrochemical activities. A clearer understanding of concern about actual environmental health risks in exposed populations may enhance the evolving theory of stress and coping and eventually enable public health professionals to develop appropriate mitigation strategies. PMID:18643817

Postmenopausal hormone therapy and changes in mammographic density.

PubMed

van Duijnhoven, Fränzel J B; Peeters, Petra H M; Warren, Ruth M L; Bingham, Sheila A; van Noord, Paulus A H; Monninkhof, Evelyn M; Grobbee, Diederick E; van Gils, Carla H

2007-04-10

Hormone therapy (HT) use has been associated with an increased breast cancer risk. We explored the underlying mechanism further by determining the effects of HT on mammographic density, a measure of dense tissue in the breast and a consistent breast cancer risk factor. A total of 620 HT users and 620 never users from the Dutch Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort and 175 HT users and 161 never users from the United Kingdom EPIC-Norfolk cohort were included. For HT users, one mammogram before and one mammogram during HT use was included. For never users, mammograms with similar time intervals were included. Mammographic density was assessed using a computer-assisted method. Changes in density were analyzed using linear regression. The median time between mammograms was 3.0 years and the median duration of HT use was 1 year. The absolute mean decline in percent density was larger in never users (7.3%) than in estrogen therapy users (6.4%; P = .22) and combined HT users (3.5%; P < .01). The effect of HT appeared to be high in a small number of women, whereas most women were unaffected. Our results suggest that HT use, and especially estrogen and progestin use, slows the changes from dense patterns to more fatty patterns that are normally seen in women with increasing age. Given that it is postulated that lifetime cumulative exposure to high density may be related to breast cancer risk, a delay in density decline in HT users potentially could explain their increased breast cancer risk.

Facilitating Adaptation to Changing Storm Surge Patterns in Western Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. A.; Holman, A.; Reynolds, J.

2014-12-01

Coastal regions of North America are already experiencing the effects of climate change and the consequences of new storm patterns and sea level rise. These climate change effects are even more pronounced in western Alaska where the loss of sea ice in early winter and spring are exposing the coast to powerful winter storms that are visibly altering the landscape, putting coastal communities at risk, and are likely impacting important coastal wildlife habitat in ways we don't yet understand. The Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative has funded a suite of projects to improve the information available to assist managers and communities to adapt changes in coastal storms and their impacts. Projects range from modeling tide, wave and storm surge patters, to ShoreZone and NHD mapping, to bathymetry mapping, community vulnerability assessments and risks to important wildlife habitat. This group of diverse projects has helped stimulate momentum among partners which will lead to better tools for communities to respond to dangerous storms. For example, the State of Alaska and NOAA are working together to compile a series of community-scale maps that utilize best-available datasets to streamline communication about forecasted storm surges, local elevations and potentially impacted infrastructure during storm events that may lead to coastal flooding.

Ramadan, Pregnancy, Nutrition, and Epidemiology.

PubMed

Stein, Aryeh D

2018-05-05

Ramadan is observed by 1.6 billion Muslims. In a paper published this month that uses data from the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System site in Burkina Faso, it is found that experiencing Ramadan in early pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of child mortality. Ramadan exposes observant individuals to a specific pattern of nutrition and other behaviors, including changes in sleep patterns. How these behaviors might result in child mortality is not yet understood, and the findings reported in the paper should be replicated in other settings.

Risk factors for psychosis: impaired social and role functioning.

PubMed

Cornblatt, Barbara A; Carrión, Ricardo E; Addington, Jean; Seidman, Larry; Walker, Elaine F; Cannon, Tyronne D; Cadenhead, Kristin S; McGlashan, Thomas H; Perkins, Diana O; Tsuang, Ming T; Woods, Scott W; Heinssen, Robert; Lencz, Todd

2012-11-01

Risk for psychosis is currently defined primarily on the basis of attenuated positive symptoms (APS), with no inclusion of the functional deficits characteristic of schizophrenia. Impaired social and role functioning have been of interest for reflecting poor outcome but far less is known about the developmental impact of these deficits as vulnerability or risk factors. Age-appropriate social and role functioning were prospectively assessed in 100 individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis included in the 8-site North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study database. A nested case-control design was used to compare changes in social and role functioning in 26 individuals converting to psychosis shortly after baseline assessment and 24 converting over a year later. Individuals in each converter subgroup were directly matched to a non-converter at the same site, controlling for time to conversion, age, gender, and severity of baseline symptoms. At baseline, CHR subjects who later became psychotic were significantly more likely to be impaired socially than matched non-converters. Onset of psychosis did not further disrupt social difficulties. Role functioning showed some of the same trends, but the overall pattern was not as consistent as for the social domain. Controlling for neurocognition did not change the pattern of group differences. Early impaired social functioning appears to be a risk factor for psychosis and, added to APS, could potentially contribute to accurate identification of CHR individuals and provide a new direction for early intervention to reduce long-term disability.

The Role of Family in a Dietary Risk Reduction Intervention for Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Schumacher, Tracy L; Burrows, Tracy L; Thompson, Deborah I; Callister, Robin; Spratt, Neil J; Collins, Clare E

2016-09-30

Diet is an essential strategy for the prevention of primary and secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The objectives were to examine: how families at increased risk of CVD perceived personal risk, their motivations to make dietary changes, their understanding of diet, and the influence of other family members. Individuals (>18 years) who completed an Australian family-based CVD risk reduction program were invited to a semi-structured telephone interview. Responses were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a systematic deductive approach with coding derived from key concepts developed as part of the interview structure. Seventeen participants from eight families were interviewed (aged 18-70 years, 47% male, five with CVD diagnosis). Key themes indicated both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to improve heart health, variations in risk perception, recognition of the role diet plays in heart health, and the extent of family influences on eating patterns. Discrepancies between perceived and actual CVD risk perception impacted on perceived "need" to modify current dietary patterns towards heart health recommendations. Therefore, strategies not reliant on risk perception are needed to engage those with low risk perception. This could involve identifying and accessing the family "ringleader" to influence involvement and capitalising on personal accountability to other family members.

Exercise effects on lipids in persons with varying dietary patterns-does diet matter if they exercise? Responses in Studies of a Targeted Risk Reduction Intervention through Defined Exercise I.

PubMed

Huffman, Kim M; Hawk, Victoria H; Henes, Sarah T; Ocampo, Christine I; Orenduff, Melissa C; Slentz, Cris A; Johnson, Johanna L; Houmard, Joseph A; Samsa, Gregory P; Kraus, William E; Bales, Connie W

2012-07-01

The standard clinical approach for reducing cardiovascular disease risk due to dyslipidemia is to prescribe changes in diet and physical activity. The purpose of the current study was to determine if, across a range of dietary patterns, there were variable lipoprotein responses to an aerobic exercise training intervention. Subjects were participants in the STRRIDE I, a supervised exercise program in sedentary, overweight subjects randomized to 6 months of inactivity or 1 of 3 aerobic exercise programs. To characterize diet patterns observed during the study, we calculated a modified z-score that included intakes of total fat, saturated fat, trans fatty acids, cholesterol, omega-3 fatty acids, and fiber as compared with the 2006 American Heart Association diet recommendations. Linear models were used to evaluate relationships between diet patterns and exercise effects on lipoproteins/lipids. Independent of diet, exercise had beneficial effects on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol particle number, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol size, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol size, and triglycerides (P < .05 for all). However, having a diet pattern that closely adhered to American Heart Association recommendations was not related to changes in these or any other serum lipids or lipoproteins in any of the exercise groups. We found that even in sedentary individuals whose habitual diets vary in the extent of adherence to AHA dietary recommendations, a rigorous, supervised exercise intervention can achieve significant beneficial lipid effects. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Wellness motivation in cardiac rehabilitation: the role of self-knowledge in cardiovascular risk modification.

PubMed

Fleury, Julie; Sedikides, Constantine

2007-08-01

Understanding the factors that motivate behavioral change is central to health promotion efforts. We used qualitative descriptive methods in an effort to understand the role of self-knowledge in the process of risk factor modification. The sample consisted of 17 men and 7 women with diagnosed coronary heart disease, who were attempting to initiate and sustain programs of cardiovascular risk modification. Participants described self-knowledge in terms of three contextually situated patterns: representational, evaluative, and behavioral action. Results reinforce the motivational role of the self and highlight the importance of understanding dimensions of self-knowledge relevant to cardiovascular risk reduction.

Issues in the Perception of AIDS Risk and Risk Reduction Activities by Black and Hispanic/Latina Women

PubMed Central

Mays, Vickie M.; Cochran, Susan D.

2014-01-01

Although to date most cases of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) have occurred among men, AIDS poses a serious threat for Black and Latina women, particularly for those who are poor and live in geographic areas of higher AIDS incidence. Yet many may not perceive themselves to be at risk from what has generally been portrayed as a “White gay disease.” This article examines patterns of AIDS infection in women and factors associated with risk perception and behavior change. In doing so, the influence of ethnic minority culture on the behavior of individual women is explored. PMID:3214007

An empirical assessment of driver motivation and emotional states in perceived safety margins under varied driving conditions.

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Kaber, David B

2013-01-01

Motivation models in driving behaviour postulate that driver motives and emotional states dictate risk tolerance under various traffic conditions. The present study used time and driver performance-based payment systems to manipulate motivation and risk-taking behaviour. Ten participants drove to a predefined location in a simulated driving environment. Traffic patterns (density and velocity) were manipulated to cause driver behaviour adjustments due to the need to conform with the social norms of the roadway. The driving environment complexity was investigated as a mediating factor in risk tolerance. Results revealed the performance-based payment system to closely relate to risk-taking behaviour as compared with the time-based payment system. Drivers conformed with social norms associated with specific traffic patterns. Higher roadway complexity led to a more conservative safety margins and speeds. This research contributes to the further development of motivational models of driver behaviour. This study provides empirical justification for two motivation factors in driver risk-taking decisions, including compliance with social norm and emotions triggered by incentives. Environment complexity was identified as a mediating factor in motivational behaviour model. This study also recommended safety margin measures sensitive to changes in driver risk tolerance.

Risk, Scientific Uncertainty, and Policy Implications of Global Climate Change Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, C.; Sahagian, D.

2006-12-01

The risks of global climate change to human populations and natural environments have received increasing attention in recent years. With high-profile events such as hurricane Katrina in the United States, rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet, shifting precipitation patterns in Europe and elsewhere, more political attention has been given to the risks posed by anthropogenic changes in the earth's atmosphere. Yet despite increasing scientific evidence of such environmental risks, reactions from political sources have been far from consistent. While some states have adopted emissions regulations on greenhouse gases, other states or national governments have downplayed the existence of any significant risk. Explanations for why political actors or the public may appear unaware of scientific data relate to the nature of uncertainty in environmental risk models and decisions. Professional scientific methodologies must approach uncertainty in a far different manner than government agencies or members of the public, and these varying types of uncertainty create spaces for translation of scientific data into incompatible conclusions. Such conclusions depend not only upon the translation of scientific data, but also perception of the risks involved, differential local impacts of climate change, and available policy alternatives and resources. Scientists involved in climate research bear a particular responsibility for how their data are interpreted politically, but this requires awareness of the manners in which uncertainty is employed, the ethics of applying research to policy questions, and realization that risks will be perceived differently according to political cultures and geographic regions.

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

2018-05-01

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural land systems under environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

E6-associated transcription patterns in human papilloma virus 16-positive cervical tissues.

PubMed

Lin, Kezhi; Lu, Xulian; Chen, Jun; Zou, Ruanmin; Zhang, Lifang; Xue, Xiangyang

2015-01-01

The change in transcription pattern induced by post-transcriptional RNA splicing is an important mechanism in the regulation of the early gene expression of human papilloma virus (HPV). The present study was conducted to establish a method to specifically amplify HPV-16 E6-associated transcripts. The E6-related transcripts from 63 HPV-16-positive cervical tumor tissue samples were amplified, consisting of eight cases of low-risk intraepithelial lesions, 38 cases of high-risk intraepithelial lesions and 17 cases of cervical cancer (CxCa). The appropriate amplified segments were recovered following agarose gel electrophoresis, and subjected to further sequencing and sequence alignment analysis. Six groups of E6 transcription patterns were identified from HPV-16-positive cervical tumor tissue, including five newly-discovered transcripts. Different HPV-16 E6-associated transcription patterns were detected during the development of CxCa. Over the course of the progression of the low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions to CxCa, the specific HPV-16 E6-associated transcription patterns and the dominant transcripts were all different. As indicated by this study, the transcription pattern of the E6 early gene of HPV-16 was closely associated with the stages of cervical carcinogenesis, and may also be involved in the development of CxCa.

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate vulnerability and risks of pluvial floods under changing climate: the case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Coppola, Erika; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Global climate change is expected to affect the intensity and frequency of extreme events (e.g. heat waves, drought, heavy precipitations events) leading to increasing natural disasters and damaging events (e.g. storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding) worldwide. Especially in urban areas, disasters risks can be exacerbated by changes in exposure and vulnerability patterns (i.e. urbanization, population growth) and should be addressed by adopting a multi-disciplinary approach. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrating climate and environmental sciences with bottom-up participative processes was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice in order to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on pluvial flood risk in urban areas. Based on the consecutive analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risks, the RRA methodology is a screening risk tool to identify and prioritize major elements at risk (e.g. residential, commercial areas and infrastructures) and to localize sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by flood risk due to heavy precipitation events, in the future scenario (2041-2050). From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach to select and score site-specific vulnerability factors (e.g. slope, permeability of the soil, past flooded areas) and to consider the requests and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region, by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. The main outputs of the assessment are risk and vulnerability maps and statistics aimed at increasing awareness about the potential effect of climate change on pluvial flood risks and at identifying hot-spot areas where future adaptation actions should be required to decrease physical-environmental vulnerabilities or building resilience and coping capacity of human society to climate change. The overall risk assessment methodology and the results of its application to the territory of the municipality of Venice will be here presented and discussed.

Suboptimal decision making by children with ADHD in the face of risk: Poor risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general proneness to taking risks.

PubMed

Sørensen, Lin; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund; Eichele, Heike; van Wageningen, Heidi; Wollschlaeger, Daniel; Plessen, Kerstin Jessica

2017-02-01

Suboptimal decision making in the face of risk (DMR) in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may be mediated by deficits in a number of different neuropsychological processes. We investigated DMR in children with ADHD using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) to distinguish difficulties in adjusting to changing probabilities of choice outcomes (so-called risk adjustment) from general risk proneness, and to distinguish these 2 processes from delay aversion (the tendency to choose the least delayed option) and impairments in the ability to reflect on choice options. Based on previous research, we predicted that suboptimal performance on this task in children with ADHD would be primarily relate to problems with risk adjustment and delay aversion rather than general risk proneness. Drug naïve children with ADHD (n = 36), 8 to 12 years, and an age-matched group of typically developing children (n = 34) performed the CGT. As predicted, children with ADHD were not more prone to making risky choices (i.e., risk proneness). However, they had difficulty adjusting to changing risk levels and were more delay aversive-with these 2 effects being correlated. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that children with ADHD do not favor risk taking per se when performing gambling tasks, but rather may lack the cognitive skills or motivational style to appraise changing patterns of risk effectively. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Trajectories of depressive symptoms among high risk African-American adolescents.

PubMed

Repetto, Paula B; Caldwell, Cleopatra H; Zimmerman, Marc A

2004-12-01

To examine the trajectories of depressive symptoms among African-American youth and the psychosocial factors associated with these trajectories. The sample included 579 African-American adolescents who were at risk of dropping out of school, interviewed annually starting from ninth grade for 4 years. The measures included depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, self-esteem, stress, and active coping; all self-reported. We used cluster analysis to develop longitudinal trajectories of depression in our sample. Four different trajectories of depressive symptoms were found that represented the changes in depressive symptoms among the participants. These trajectories are: consistently high (15.9%), consistently low (21.1%), decreasing (41.8%), and increasing (21.2%) depressive symptoms. The results from the comparisons of the trajectories indicated that adolescents who presented consistently high levels of depressive symptoms were more likely to be female, reported more anxiety symptoms, lower self-esteem, higher stress, and lower grade point average (GPA) compared with adolescent members of the other trajectories. Depressive symptoms may be manifested in different ways according to the patterns of change. Different correlates are associated with these trajectories of depressive symptoms and provide insights about the antecedents and consequences of the patterns of change in depressive symptoms.

Contact, Travel, and Transmission: The Impact of Winter Holidays on Influenza Dynamics in the United States

PubMed Central

Ewing, Anne; Lee, Elizabeth C.; Viboud, Cécile

2017-01-01

Abstract Background. The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns. We aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial influenza transmission. Methods. We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model. Results. Winter holidays reduced influenza transmission and delayed the trajectory of influenza season epidemics. The holiday period was marked by a shift in the relative risk of disease from children toward adults. Model results indicated that holidays delayed epidemic peaks and synchronized incidence across locations, and that contact reductions from school closures, rather than age-specific mixing and travel, produced these observed holiday influenza dynamics. Conclusions. Winter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk toward adults because of changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods. PMID:28031259

Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin A.; Taylor, Nick G. H.; Hartnell, Rachel; Siitonen, Anja; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2013-01-01

There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078°Cyr-1 (6.3-7.8°C per century; refs , ), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.

But is helping you worth the risk? Defining Prosocial Risk Taking in adolescence

PubMed Central

Do, Kathy T.; Guassi Moreira, João F.; Telzer, Eva H.

2017-01-01

Recent work has shown that the same neural circuitry that typically underlies risky behaviors also contributes to prosocial behaviors. Despite the striking overlap between two seemingly distinct behavioral patterns, little is known about how risk taking and prosociality interact and inform adolescent decision making. We review literature on adolescent brain development as it pertains to risk taking and prosociality and propose a new area of study, Prosocial Risk Taking, which suggests that adolescents can make risky decisions with the intention of helping other individuals. Given key socialization processes and ongoing neurodevelopmental changes during this time, adolescence may represent a sensitive period for the emergence of Prosocial Risk Taking, especially within a wide variety of social contexts when youth’s increased sensitivity to social evaluation and belonging impacts their behaviors. Prosocial Risk Taking in adolescence is an area of study that has been overlooked in the literature, but could help explain how ontogenetic changes in the adolescent brain may create not only vulnerabilities, but also opportunities for healthy prosocial development. PMID:28063823

AIDS related attitudes and sexual practices of the Jakarta WARIA (male transvestites).

PubMed

Lubis, I; Master, J; Bambang, M; Papilaya, A; Anthony, R L

1994-03-01

As part of a community based educational campaign to convey the risk of HIV infection and AIDS to commercial sex workers in Jakarta, over 600 male transvestites (WARIA) were questioned about their sexual behavior patterns and their knowledge and attitude towards HIV infection and AIDS. Most expressed a genuine fear about AIDS, but they stated they did not have sufficient information to determine if their risk of infection, at this time, was great enough to command a change in their sexual conduct. Among the group who felt they were not at risk for HIV infection, 40% had 8 or more different sex partners per week. Low risk receptive oral sex, thigh massage (simulated vaginal sex) and masturbation of the client were routine activities but high risk receptive anal sex without condoms was most common. Despite such high risk behavior, the WARIA community remains free of HIV infections. However, if they refuse to accept the endorsement of their peer leaders and they fail to alter their sexual behavior because of an unawareness of their risk, that status will change soon.

Trajectories of the relationships of physical activity with body composition changes in older men: the MrOS study.

PubMed

Laddu, Deepika R; Cawthon, Peggy M; Parimi, Neeta; Hoffman, Andrew R; Orwoll, Eric; Miljkovic, Iva; Stefanick, Marcia L

2017-06-05

Excess adiposity gains and significant lean mass loss may be risk factors for chronic disease in old age. Long-term patterns of change in physical activity (PA) and their influence on body composition decline during aging has not been characterized. We evaluated the interrelationships of PA and body composition at the outset and over longitudinal follow-up to changes in older men. Self-reported PA by the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE), clinic body weight, and whole-body lean mass (LM) and fat mass, by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), were assessed in 5964 community-dwelling men aged ≥65 years at baseline (2000-2002) and at two subsequent clinic visits up until March 2009 (an average 4.6 and 6.9 years later). Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) identified patterns of change in PA and body composition variables. Relationships of PA and body composition changes were then assessed. GBTM identified three discrete trajectory patterns, all with declining PA, associated primarily with initial PA levelshigh-activity (7.2% of men), moderate-activity (50.0%), and low-activity (42.8%). In separate models, GBTM identified eight discrete total weight change groups, five fat mass change groups, and six LM change groups. Joint trajectory modeling by PA and body composition group illustrated significant declines in total weight and LM, whereas fat mass levels were relatively unchanged among high-activity and low-activity-declining groups, and significantly increased in the moderate-activity-declining group. Although patterns of change in PA and body composition were identified, groups were primarily differentiated by initial PA or body composition rather than by distinct trajectories of change in these variables.

Temporal trends in marijuana attitudes, availability and use in Colorado compared to non-medical marijuana states: 2003-11.

PubMed

Schuermeyer, Joseph; Salomonsen-Sautel, Stacy; Price, Rumi Kato; Balan, Sundari; Thurstone, Christian; Min, Sung-Joon; Sakai, Joseph T

2014-07-01

In 2009, policy changes were accompanied by a rapid increase in the number of medical marijuana cardholders in Colorado. Little published epidemiological work has tracked changes in the state around this time. Using the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, we tested for temporal changes in marijuana attitudes and marijuana-use-related outcomes in Colorado (2003-11) and differences within-year between Colorado and thirty-four non-medical-marijuana states (NMMS). Using regression analyses, we further tested whether patterns seen in Colorado prior to (2006-8) and during (2009-11) marijuana commercialization differed from patterns in NMMS while controlling for demographics. Within Colorado those reporting "great-risk" to using marijuana 1-2 times/week dropped significantly in all age groups studied between 2007-8 and 2010-11 (e.g. from 45% to 31% among those 26 years and older; p=0.0006). By 2010-11 past-year marijuana abuse/dependence had become more prevalent in Colorado for 12-17 year olds (5% in Colorado, 3% in NMMS; p=0.03) and 18-25 year olds (9% vs. 5%; p=0.02). Regressions demonstrated significantly greater reductions in perceived risk (12-17 year olds, p=0.005; those 26 years and older, p=0.01), and trend for difference in changes in availability among those 26 years and older and marijuana abuse/dependence among 12-17 year olds in Colorado compared to NMMS in more recent years (2009-11 vs. 2006-8). Our results show that commercialization of marijuana in Colorado has been associated with lower risk perception. Evidence is suggestive for marijuana abuse/dependence. Analyses including subsequent years 2012+ once available, will help determine whether such changes represent momentary vs. sustained effects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating the Risk of Liver Fluke Infection using a Mechanistic Hydro-epidemiological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, Ludovica; Dunne, Toby; Rose, Hannah; Walker, Josephine; Morgan, Eric; Vickerman, Peter; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Liver Fluke (Fasciola hepatica) is a common parasite found in livestock and responsible for considerable economic losses throughout the world. Risk of infection is strongly influenced by climatic and hydrological conditions, which characterise the host environment for parasite development and transmission. Despite on-going control efforts, increases in fluke outbreaks have been reported in recent years in the UK, and have been often attributed to climate change. Currently used fluke risk models are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data. However, hydro-climate conditions are becoming increasingly non-stationary due to climate change and direct anthropogenic impacts such as land use change, making empirical models unsuitable for simulating future risk. In this study we introduce a mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Liver Fluke, which explicitly simulates habitat suitability for disease development in space and time, representing the parasite life cycle in connection with key environmental conditions. The model is used to assess patterns of Liver Fluke risk for two catchments in the UK under current and potential future climate conditions. Comparisons are made with a widely used empirical model employing different datasets, including data from regional veterinary laboratories. Results suggest that mechanistic models can achieve adequate predictive ability and support adaptive fluke control strategies under climate change scenarios.

Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment.

PubMed

Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair B A; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

2013-01-01

Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

A 'dynamic' landscape of fear: prey responses to spatiotemporal variations in predation risk across the lunar cycle.

PubMed

Palmer, M S; Fieberg, J; Swanson, A; Kosmala, M; Packer, C

2017-11-01

Ambiguous empirical support for 'landscapes of fear' in natural systems may stem from failure to consider dynamic temporal changes in predation risk. The lunar cycle dramatically alters night-time visibility, with low luminosity increasing hunting success of African lions. We used camera-trap data from Serengeti National Park to examine nocturnal anti-predator behaviours of four herbivore species. Interactions between predictable fluctuations in night-time luminosity and the underlying risk-resource landscape shaped herbivore distribution, herding propensity and the incidence of 'relaxed' behaviours. Buffalo responded least to temporal risk cues and minimised risk primarily through spatial redistribution. Gazelle and zebra made decisions based on current light levels and lunar phase, and wildebeest responded to lunar phase alone. These three species avoided areas where likelihood of encountering lions was high and changed their behaviours in risky areas to minimise predation threat. These patterns support the hypothesis that fear landscapes vary heterogeneously in both space and time. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Youth Participation and Injury Risk in Martial Arts.

PubMed

Demorest, Rebecca A; Koutures, Chris

2016-12-01

The martial arts can provide children and adolescents with vigorous levels of physical exercise that can improve overall physical fitness. The various types of martial arts encompass noncontact basic forms and techniques that may have a lower relative risk of injury. Contact-based sparring with competitive training and bouts have a higher risk of injury. This clinical report describes important techniques and movement patterns in several types of martial arts and reviews frequently reported injuries encountered in each discipline, with focused discussions of higher risk activities. Some of these higher risk activities include blows to the head and choking or submission movements that may cause concussions or significant head injuries. The roles of rule changes, documented benefits of protective equipment, and changes in training recommendations in attempts to reduce injury are critically assessed. This information is intended to help pediatric health care providers counsel patients and families in encouraging safe participation in martial arts. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Impacts of Climate Anomalies on the Vegetation Patterns in the Arid and Semi-Arid Zones of Uzbekistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dildora, Aralova; Toderich, Kristina; Dilshod, Gafurov

2016-08-01

Steadily rising temperature anomalies in last decades are causing changes in vegetation patterns for sensitive to climate change in arid and semi-arid dryland ecosystems. After desiccation of the Aral Sea, Uzbekistan has been left with the challenge to develop drought and heat stress monitoring system and tools (e.g., to monitor vegetation status and/crop pattern dynamics) with using remote sensing technologies in broad scale. This study examines several climate parameters, NDVI and drought indexes within geostatistical method to predict further vegetation status in arid and semi-arid zones of landscapes. This approaches aimed to extract and utilize certain variable environmental data (temperature and precipitation) for assessment and inter-linkages of vegetation cover dynamics, specifically related to predict degraded and recovered zones or desertification process in the drylands due to scarcity of water resources and high risks of climate anomalies in fragile ecosystem of Uzbekistan.

Disruption of an Evolutionarily Novel Synaptic Expression Pattern in Autism

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xi; Hu, Haiyang; Guijarro, Patricia; Mitchell, Amanda; Ely, John J.; Sherwood, Chet C.; Hof, Patrick R.; Qiu, Zilong; Pääbo, Svante; Akbarian, Schahram; Khaitovich, Philipp

2016-01-01

Cognitive defects in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) include socialization and communication: key behavioral capacities that separate humans from other species. Here, we analyze gene expression in the prefrontal cortex of 63 autism patients and control individuals, as well as 62 chimpanzees and macaques, from natal to adult age. We show that among all aberrant expression changes seen in ASD brains, a single aberrant expression pattern overrepresented in genes involved synaptic-related pathways is enriched in nucleotide variants linked to autism. Furthermore, only this pattern contains an excess of developmental expression features unique to humans, thus resulting in the disruption of human-specific developmental programs in autism. Several members of the early growth response (EGR) transcription factor family can be implicated in regulation of this aberrant developmental change. Our study draws a connection between the genetic risk architecture of autism and molecular features of cortical development unique to humans. PMID:27685936

Effect of changes in human ecology and behavior on patterns of sexually transmitted diseases, including human immunodeficiency virus infection.

PubMed Central

Wasserheit, J N

1994-01-01

The last 20 years have witnessed six striking changes in patterns of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs): emergence of new STD organisms and etiologies, reemergence of old STDs, shifts in the populations in which STDs are concentrated, shifts in the etiological spectra of STD syndromes, alterations in the incidence of STD complications, and increases in antimicrobial resistance. For example, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) emerged to devastate the United States with a fatal pandemic involving at least 1 million people. The incidence of syphilis rose progressively after 1956 to reach a 40-year peak by 1990. In both cases, disease patterns shifted from homosexual men to include minority heterosexuals. Over the last decade, gonorrhea became increasingly concentrated among adolescents, and several new types of antimicrobial resistance appeared. Three interrelated types of environments affect STD patterns. The microbiologic, hormonal, and immunologic microenvironments most directly influence susceptibility, infectiousness, and development of sequelae. These microenvironments are shaped, in part, by the personal environments created by an individual's sexual, substance-use, and health-related behaviors. The personal environments are also important determinants of acquisition of infection and development of sequelae but, in addition, they mediate risk of exposure to infection. These are, therefore, the environments that most directly affect changing disease patterns. Finally, individuals' personal environments are, in turn, molded by powerful macroenvironmental forces, including socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, political, epidemiologic, and technological factors. Over the past 20 years, the profound changes that have occurred in many aspects of the personal environment and the macroenvironment have been reflected in new STD patterns. PMID:8146135

Thoracopelvic assisted movement training to improve gait and balance in elderly at risk of falling: a case series

PubMed Central

Springer, Shmuel; Friedman, Itamar; Ohry, Avi

2018-01-01

Background Age-related changes in coordinated movement pattern of the thorax and pelvis may be one of the factors contributing to fall risk. This report describes the feasibility of using a new thoracopelvic assisted movement device to improve gait and balance in an elderly population with increased risk for falls. Methods In this case series, 19 older adults were recruited from an assisted living facility. All had gait difficulties (gait speed <1.0 m/s) and history of falls. Participants received 12 training sessions with the thoracopelvic assisted movement device. Functional performance was measured before, during (after 6 sessions), and after the 12 sessions. Outcomes measures were Timed Up and Go, Functional Reach Test, and the 10-meter Walk Test. Changes in outcomes were calculated for each participant in the context of minimal detectable change (MDC) values. Results More than 25% of participants showed changes >MDC in their clinical measures after 6 treatment sessions, and more than half improved >MDC after 12 sessions. Six subjects (32%) improved their Timed Up and Go time by >4 seconds after 6 sessions, and 10 (53%) after 12 sessions. After the intervention, 4 subjects (21%) improved their 10-meter Walk Test velocity from limited community ambulation (0.4–0.8 m/s) to functional community ambulation (>0.8 m/s). Conclusion Thoracopelvic assisted movement training that mimics normal walking pattern may have clinical implications, by improving skills that enhance balance and gait function. Additional randomized, controlled studies are required to examine the effects of this intervention on larger cohorts with a variety of subjects.

ANALYSIS OF LANDSCAPE AND WATER QUALITY IN THE NEW YORK CATSKILL - DELAWARE WATERSHED (1973-1998)

EPA Science Inventory

The primary goal of this study is to improve risk assessment through the development of methods and tools for characterization of landscape and water resource change. Exploring the relationship between landscape pattern and water quality in the Catskill-Delaware basins will impro...

Historical Compilation and Georeferencing of Dengue and Chikungunya outbreak data for Disease Modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The risk of vector-borne disease spread is increasing due to significant changes and variability in the global climate and increasing global travel and trade. Understanding the relationships between climate variability and disease outbreak patterns are critical to the design and construction of pred...

Changing What You Know and Do: The Parent-Child Psychotherapy Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Betty Ann; Venza, James

2011-01-01

The Parent-Child Psychotherapy Program (PPP) is a multifamily group therapy intervention for parents and young children at high risk for intergenerational patterns of neglect, abuse, and disorganized attachment. A "developmental and experiential model" that incorporates principles of attachment theory, the PPP addresses parent and child needs…

Flooding in the future--predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas.

PubMed

Ashley, R M; Balmforth, D J; Saul, A J; Blanskby, J D

2005-01-01

Engineering infrastructure is provided at high cost and is expected to have a useful operational life of decades. However, it is clear that the future is uncertain. Traditional approaches to designing and operating urban storm drainage assets have relied on past performance of natural systems and the ability to extrapolate this performance, together with that of the assets across the usable lifetime. Whether or not climate change is going to significantly alter future weather patterns in Europe, it is clear that it is now incumbent on designers and operators of storm drainage systems to prepare for greater uncertainty in the effectiveness of storm drainage systems. A recent U.K. Government study considered the potential effects of climate and socio-economic change in the U.K. in terms of four future scenarios and what the implications are for the performance of existing storm drainage facilities. In this paper the modelling that was undertaken to try to quantify the changes in risk, together with the effectiveness of responses in managing that risk, are described. It shows that flood risks may increase by a factor of almost 30 times and that traditional engineering measures alone are unlikely to be able to provide protection.

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

PubMed

Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie

2018-02-01

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats). © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Age Patterns in Risk Taking Across the World.

PubMed

Duell, Natasha; Steinberg, Laurence; Icenogle, Grace; Chein, Jason; Chaudhary, Nandita; Di Giunta, Laura; Dodge, Kenneth A; Fanti, Kostas A; Lansford, Jennifer E; Oburu, Paul; Pastorelli, Concetta; Skinner, Ann T; Sorbring, Emma; Tapanya, Sombat; Uribe Tirado, Liliana Maria; Alampay, Liane Peña; Al-Hassan, Suha M; Takash, Hanan M S; Bacchini, Dario; Chang, Lei

2018-05-01

Epidemiological data indicate that risk behaviors are among the leading causes of adolescent morbidity and mortality worldwide. Consistent with this, laboratory-based studies of age differences in risk behavior allude to a peak in adolescence, suggesting that adolescents demonstrate a heightened propensity, or inherent inclination, to take risks. Unlike epidemiological reports, studies of risk taking propensity have been limited to Western samples, leaving questions about the extent to which heightened risk taking propensity is an inherent or culturally constructed aspect of adolescence. In the present study, age patterns in risk-taking propensity (using two laboratory tasks: the Stoplight and the BART) and real-world risk taking (using self-reports of health and antisocial risk taking) were examined in a sample of 5227 individuals (50.7% female) ages 10-30 (M = 17.05 years, SD = 5.91) from 11 Western and non-Western countries (China, Colombia, Cyprus, India, Italy, Jordan, Kenya, the Philippines, Sweden, Thailand, and the US). Two hypotheses were tested: (1) risk taking follows an inverted-U pattern across age groups, peaking earlier on measures of risk taking propensity than on measures of real-world risk taking, and (2) age patterns in risk taking propensity are more consistent across countries than age patterns in real-world risk taking. Overall, risk taking followed the hypothesized inverted-U pattern across age groups, with health risk taking evincing the latest peak. Age patterns in risk taking propensity were more consistent across countries than age patterns in real-world risk taking. Results suggest that although the association between age and risk taking is sensitive to measurement and culture, around the world, risk taking is generally highest among late adolescents.

The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

PubMed Central

Trærup, Sara L. M.; Ortiz, Ramon A.; Markandya, Anil

2011-01-01

Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in Tanzania and uses socioeconomic data to control for the impacts of general development on the risk of cholera. The results show a significant relationship between temperature and the incidence of cholera. For a 1 degree Celsius temperature increase the initial relative risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable to climate change are shown to be in the range of 0.32 to 1.4 percent of GDP in Tanzania 2030. The results provide useful insights into national-level estimates of the implications of climate change on the health sector and offer information which can feed into both national and international debates on financing and planning adaptation. PMID:22408580

Temporal changes in incidence and pattern of central nervous system relapses in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia treated on four consecutive Medical Research Council Trials, 1985–2001

PubMed Central

Krishnan, Shekhar; Wade, Rachel; Moorman, Anthony V; Mitchell, Chris; Kinsey, Sally E; Eden, TOB; Parker, Catriona; Vora, Ajay; Richards, Sue; Saha, Vaskar

2009-01-01

Despite the success of contemporary treatment protocols in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), relapse within the central nervous system (CNS) remains a challenge. To better understand this phenomenon, we have analysed the changes in incidence and pattern of CNS relapses in 5564 children enrolled on four successive MRC-ALL trials between 1985 and 2001. Changes in the incidence and pattern of CNS relapses were examined and the relationship with patient characteristics assessed. Factors affecting post-relapse outcome were determined. Overall, relapses declined by 49%. Decreases occurred primarily in non-CNS and combined relapses with a progressive shift towards later (≥30 months from diagnosis) relapses (p<0·0001). Although isolated CNS relapses declined, the proportional incidence and timing of relapse remained unchanged. Age and presenting white cell count were risk factors for CNS relapse. On multivariate analysis, the time to relapse and the trial period influenced post-relapse outcomes. Relapse trends differed within biological subtypes. In ETV6-RUNX1 ALL, relapse patterns mirrored overall trends while in High Hyperdiploidy ALL, these appear to have plateaued over the latter two trial periods. Intensive systemic and intrathecal chemotherapy have decreased the overall CNS relapse rates and changed the patterns of recurrence. The heterogeneity of therapeutic response in the biological subtypes suggests room for further optimisation using currently available chemotherapy. PMID:20016529

Qualitative and quantitative dermatoglyphic traits in patients with breast cancer: a prospective clinical study

PubMed Central

Chintamani; Khandelwal, Rohan; Mittal, Aliza; Saijanani, Sai; Tuteja, Amita; Bansal, Anju; Bhatnagar, Dinesh; Saxena, Sunita

2007-01-01

Background Breast cancer is one of the most extensively studied cancers and its genetic basis is well established. Dermatoglyphic traits are formed under genetic control early in development but may be affected by environmental factors during first trimester of pregnancy. They however do not change significantly thereafter, thus maintaining stability not greatly affected by age. These patterns may represent the genetic make up of an individual and therefore his/her predisposition to certain diseases. Patterns of dermatoglyphics have been studied in various congenital disorders like Down's syndrome and Kleinfelter syndrome. The prints can thus represent a non-invasive anatomical marker of breast cancer risk and thus facilitate early detection and treatment. Methods The study was conducted on 60 histo-pathologically confirmed breast cancer patients and their digital dermatoglyphic patterns were studied to assess their association with the type and onset of breast cancer. Simultaneously 60 age-matched controls were also selected that had no self or familial history of a diagnosed breast cancer and the observations were recorded. The differences of qualitative (dermatoglyphic patterns) data were tested for their significance using the chi-square test, and for quantitative (ridge counts and pattern intensity index) data using the t- test. Results It was observed that six or more whorls in the finger print pattern were statistically significant among the cancer patients as compared to controls. It was also seen that whorls in the right ring finger and right little finger were found increased among the cases as compared to controls. The differences between mean pattern intensity index of cases and controls were found to be statistically significant. Conclusion The dermatoglyphic patterns may be utilized effectively to study the genetic basis of breast cancer and may also serve as a screening tool in the high-risk population. In a developing country like India it might prove to be an anatomical, non-invasive, inexpensive and effective tool for screening and studying the patterns in the high-risk population. PMID:17397524

Lifestyle interventions targeting body weight changes during the menopause transition: a systematic review.

PubMed

Jull, Janet; Stacey, Dawn; Beach, Sarah; Dumas, Alex; Strychar, Irene; Ufholz, Lee-Anne; Prince, Stephanie; Abdulnour, Joseph; Prud'homme, Denis

2014-01-01

To determine the effectiveness of exercise and/or nutrition interventions and to address body weight changes during the menopause transition. A systematic review of the literature was conducted using electronic databases, grey literature, and hand searching. Two independent researchers screened for studies using experimental designs to evaluate the impact of exercise and/or nutrition interventions on body weight and/or central weight gain performed during the menopausal transition. Studies were quality appraised using Cochrane risk of bias. Included studies were analyzed descriptively. Of 3,564 unique citations screened, 3 studies were eligible (2 randomized controlled trials, and 1 pre/post study). Study quality ranged from low to high risk of bias. One randomized controlled trial with lower risk of bias concluded that participation in an exercise program combined with dietary interventions might mitigate body adiposity increases, which is normally observed during the menopause transition. The other two studies with higher risk of bias suggested that exercise might attenuate weight loss or weight gain and change abdominal adiposity patterns. High quality studies evaluating the effectiveness of interventions targeting body weight changes in women during their menopause transition are needed. Evidence from one higher quality study indicates an effective multifaceted intervention for women to minimize changes in body adiposity.

Lifestyle Interventions Targeting Body Weight Changes during the Menopause Transition: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Jull, Janet; Stacey, Dawn; Beach, Sarah; Dumas, Alex; Strychar, Irene; Ufholz, Lee-Anne; Prince, Stephanie; Abdulnour, Joseph; Prud'homme, Denis

2014-01-01

Objective. To determine the effectiveness of exercise and/or nutrition interventions and to address body weight changes during the menopause transition. Methods. A systematic review of the literature was conducted using electronic databases, grey literature, and hand searching. Two independent researchers screened for studies using experimental designs to evaluate the impact of exercise and/or nutrition interventions on body weight and/or central weight gain performed during the menopausal transition. Studies were quality appraised using Cochrane risk of bias. Included studies were analyzed descriptively. Results. Of 3,564 unique citations screened, 3 studies were eligible (2 randomized controlled trials, and 1 pre/post study). Study quality ranged from low to high risk of bias. One randomized controlled trial with lower risk of bias concluded that participation in an exercise program combined with dietary interventions might mitigate body adiposity increases, which is normally observed during the menopause transition. The other two studies with higher risk of bias suggested that exercise might attenuate weight loss or weight gain and change abdominal adiposity patterns. Conclusions. High quality studies evaluating the effectiveness of interventions targeting body weight changes in women during their menopause transition are needed. Evidence from one higher quality study indicates an effective multifaceted intervention for women to minimize changes in body adiposity. PMID:24971172

Is Serotonin Transporter Genotype Associated with Epigenetic Susceptibility or Vulnerability? Examination of the Impact of SES Risk on African American Youth

PubMed Central

Beach, S. R. H.; Brody, G. H.; Lei, M.K.; Kim, S.; Cui, J.

2014-01-01

We hypothesized that presence of the s allele in the promoter region of the serotonin transporter (5-HTTLR) would moderate the effect of early cumulative SES risk on epigenetic change among African American youth. Contrasting hypotheses regarding the shape of the interaction effect were generated using vulnerability and susceptibility frameworks and applied to data from a sample of 388 African American youth. Early, cumulative SES risk assessed at 11–13 years based on parent report interacted with presence of the s allele to predict differential methylation assessed at age 19. Across multiple tests, a differential susceptibility perspective rather than a diathesis stress framework best fit the data for genes associated with depression, consistently demonstrating greater epigenetic response to early cumulative SES risk among s allele carriers. A pattern consistent with greater impact among s allele carriers also was observed using all CpG sites across the genome that were differentially affected by early cumulative SES risk. We conclude that the s allele is associated with increased responsiveness to early cumulative SES risk among African American youth, leading to epigenetic divergence for depression-related genes in response to exposure to heightened SES risk among s allele carriers in a “for better” or “for worse” pattern. PMID:24438855

Differences in gay men's AIDS risk knowledge and behavior patterns in high and low AIDS prevalence cities.

PubMed Central

St Lawrence, J S; Hood, H V; Brasfield, T; Kelly, J A

1989-01-01

Several studies have found reductions in acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) risk practices among gay men in high AIDS-prevalence cities since the start of the AIDS crisis. Much less is known about risk behavior patterns among gay men in smaller cities, where AIDS cases are less common and the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection is relatively lower. In the study, men entering gay bars in three cities, one large and two small, completed anonymous surveys of sexual practices and AIDS risk knowledge. Men in high AIDS-prevalence areas were found to have had a greater number of sexual partners, were more knowledgeable about AIDS, were much more likely to engage in low-risk practices (such as mutual masturbation or body rubbing), and had unprotected anal intercourse less frequently than gay men in smaller cities. The most common sexual activity among gay men in the larger city was mutual masturbation, a low-risk practice. The most common sexual activity among gay men in the smaller cities was unprotected anal intercourse. Increased efforts are needed to educate gay men and to promote risk behavior changes among those living in smaller cities and in communities outside the prominent AIDS epicenters. PMID:2502813

A Western Dietary Pattern Increases Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Fabiani, Roberto; Minelli, Liliana; Bertarelli, Gaia; Bacci, Silvia

2016-10-12

Dietary patterns were recently applied to examine the relationship between eating habits and prostate cancer (PC) risk. While the associations between PC risk with the glycemic index and Mediterranean score have been reviewed, no meta-analysis is currently available on dietary patterns defined by "a posteriori" methods. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science) to identify studies reporting the relationship between dietary patterns and PC risk. Relevant dietary patterns were selected and the risks estimated were calculated by a random-effect model. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs), for a first-percentile increase in dietary pattern score, were combined by a dose-response meta-analysis. Twelve observational studies were included in the meta-analysis which identified a "Healthy pattern" and a "Western pattern". The Healthy pattern was not related to PC risk (OR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-1.04) while the Western pattern significantly increased it (OR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.08-1.65). In addition, the "Carbohydrate pattern", which was analyzed in four articles, was positively associated with a higher PC risk (OR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.35-2.00). A significant linear trend between the Western ( p = 0.011) pattern, the Carbohydrate ( p = 0.005) pattern, and the increment of PC risk was observed. The small number of studies included in the meta-analysis suggests that further investigation is necessary to support these findings.

Monitoring and Analyzing the Geospatial Patterns of the Pearl River Delta (prd) from 1960 TO 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Wu, Z.; Li, S.; Cao, Z.

2018-04-01

The Geospatial Patterns Pearl River Delta (PRD), one of the most economically-important and fastest-growing regions in China, have changed remarkably and continuously during the past decades. In this research, the change of landuse, coastline during 1960-2012 were closely investigated to provide better description and explanation of the geospatial pattern. And the relationships between them were explored. Finally, the impact that urban expansion brought to the coastal environment was quantitatively analyzed. The main remarks of this research are summarized into the following points: (1) In PRD, construction land expanded 33 times. In the meantime, the area of forest and farmland decreased 47.53 % and 56.70 %, respectively. (2) The land demand for agricultural development was the key factor that changed coastline in PRD before 2000. Since 2000, land demand for urban construction has been the key factor that changed coastline in PRD. (3) During 1960 to 2012, the length of coastline in PRD increased from 1134.95 km to 1508.02 km with an increasing speed of 7.17 km per year. Relatively, the coastline changed more obvious in three periods (2004 to 2006, 2006 to 2008 and 2008 to 2010). (4) The type of coastline changed remarkably from 1960 to 2012. 82.94 % of the natural coastline in PRD disappeared until 2012. Known from this research, the geospatial patterns of the PRD changed remarkably during 1960 to 2012, mainly driven by human activities. The coastal environment is facing serious risks and challenges under the rapid process of urbanization.

Impaired cognitive discrimination and discoordination of coupled theta-gamma oscillations in Fmr1 knockout mice

PubMed Central

Radwan, Basma; Dvorak, Dino; Fenton, André

2016-01-01

Fragile X syndrome (FXS) patients do not make the fragile X mental retardation protein (FMRP). Absence of FMRP causes dysregulated translation, abnormal synaptic plasticity and the most common form of inherited intellectual disability. But FMRP loss has minimal effects on memory itself, making it difficult to understand why absence of FMRP impairs memory discrimination and increases risk of autistic symptoms in patients, such as exaggerated responses to environmental changes. While Fmr1 knockout (KO) and wild-type (WT) mice perform cognitive discrimination tasks, we find abnormal patterns of coupling between theta and gamma oscillations in perisomatic and dendritic hippocampal CA1 local field potentials of the KO. Perisomatic CA1 theta-gamma phase-amplitude coupling (PAC) decreases with familiarity in both the WT and KO, but activating an invisible shock zone, subsequently changing its location, or turning it off, changes the pattern of oscillatory events in the LFPs recorded along the somato-dendritic axis of CA1. The cognition-dependent changes of this pattern of neural activity are relatively constrained in WT mice compared to KO mice, which exhibit abnormally weak changes during the cognitive challenge caused by changing the location of the shock zone and exaggerated patterns of change when the shock zone is turned off. Such pathophysiology might explain how dysregulated translation leads to intellectual disability in FXS. These findings demonstrate major functional abnormalities after the loss of FMRP in the dynamics of neural oscillations and that these impairments would be difficult to detect by steady-state measurements with the subject at rest or in steady conditions. PMID:26792400

Can changes in population mixing and socio-economic deprivation in Cumbria, England explain changes in cancer incidence around Sellafield?

PubMed

McNally, Richard J Q; James, Peter W; Blakey, Karen; Basta, Nermine O; Norman, Paul D; Pearce, Mark S

2017-06-01

Previously excesses in incident cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma have been observed amongst young people born or resident in Seascale, Cumbria. These excesses have not been seen more recently. It is postulated that the former apparent increased risk was related to 'unusual population mixing', which is not present in recent years. This study investigated changes in measures of population mixing from 1951-2001. Comparisons were made between three specified areas. Area-based measures were calculated (migration, commuting, deprivation, population density). All areas have become more affluent, although Seascale was consistently the most affluent. Seascale has become less densely populated, with less migration into the ward and less diversity with respect to migrants' origin. There have been marked changes in patterns of population mixing throughout Cumbria. Lesser population mixing has been observed in Seascale in recent decades. Changes in pattern and nature of population mixing may explain the lack of recent excesses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Change in fracture risk and fracture pattern after bariatric surgery: nested case-control study.

PubMed

Rousseau, Catherine; Jean, Sonia; Gamache, Philippe; Lebel, Stéfane; Mac-Way, Fabrice; Biertho, Laurent; Michou, Laëtitia; Gagnon, Claudia

2016-07-27

 To investigate whether bariatric surgery increases the risk of fracture.  Retrospective nested case-control study.  Patients who underwent bariatric surgery in the province of Quebec, Canada, between 2001 and 2014, selected using healthcare administrative databases.  12 676 patients who underwent bariatric surgery, age and sex matched with 38 028 obese and 126 760 non-obese controls.  Incidence and sites of fracture in patients who had undergone bariatric surgery compared with obese and non-obese controls. Fracture risk was also compared before and after surgery (index date) within each group and by type of surgery from 2006 to 2014. Multivariate conditional Poisson regression models were adjusted for fracture history, number of comorbidities, sociomaterial deprivation, and area of residence.  Before surgery, patients undergoing bariatric surgery (9169 (72.3%) women; mean age 42 (SD 11) years) were more likely to fracture (1326; 10.5%) than were obese (3065; 8.1%) or non-obese (8329; 6.6%) controls. A mean of 4.4 years after surgery, bariatric patients were more susceptible to fracture (514; 4.1%) than were obese (1013; 2.7%) and non-obese (3008; 2.4%) controls. Postoperative adjusted fracture risk was higher in the bariatric group than in the obese (relative risk 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.55) and non-obese (1.44, 1.29 to 1.59) groups. Before surgery, the risk of distal lower limb fracture was higher, upper limb fracture risk was lower, and risk of clinical spine, hip, femur, or pelvic fractures was similar in the bariatric and obese groups compared with the non-obese group. After surgery, risk of distal lower limb fracture decreased (relative risk 0.66, 0.56 to 0.78), whereas risk of upper limb (1.64, 1.40 to 1.93), clinical spine (1.78, 1.08 to 2.93), pelvic, hip, or femur (2.52, 1.78 to 3.59) fractures increased. The increase in risk of fracture reached significance only for biliopancreatic diversion.  Patients undergoing bariatric surgery were more likely to have fractures than were obese or non-obese controls, and this risk remained higher after surgery. Fracture risk was site specific, changing from a pattern associated with obesity to a pattern typical of osteoporosis after surgery. Only biliopancreatic diversion was clearly associated with fracture risk; however, results for Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and sleeve gastrectomy remain inconclusive. Fracture risk assessment and management should be part of bariatric care. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Risky Decisions Despite Counter Evidence: Modeling a Culture of Safer Sexual Practices

PubMed Central

Patel, Vimla L.; Yoskowitz, Nicole A.; Kaufman, David R.; Gutnik, Lily A.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

2005-01-01

To create a culture of safe practices, we need to understand how and under what conditions the public makes risky decisions about their health. Because risky sexual behaviors are known to be common in young adults, we investigated their decision making regarding sexual activities that could incur a high risk of HIV infection. Sixty young urban adults maintained journals for two weeks and were interviewed regarding condom use and sexual history. We characterized four patterns of condom use behavior: consistent (35.0%), inconsistent (16.7%), consistent to inconsistent (35.0%), and inconsistent to consistent (13.3%). Directionality of reasoning was analyzed in the explanations provided for condom use decisions. The consistent and inconsistent patterns were associated with data-driven heuristic reasoning, where behavior becomes automated and is associated with a high level of confidence in one’s judgment. In the other two patterns, the shift in behavior was due to a significant event that influenced a change in directionality to explanation-based reasoning. We discuss these results within the framework of identifying potentially high-risk groups for whom customized intervention strategies (such as computer-based educational programs) can be used to reduce risk, thereby creating a culture of safer sexual practices. PMID:16779109

Risky decisions despite counter evidence: modeling a culture of safer sexual practices.

PubMed

Patel, Vimla L; Yoskowitz, Nicole A; Kaufman, David R; Gutnik, Lily A; Shortliffe, Edward H

2005-01-01

To create a culture of safe practices, we need to understand how and under what conditions the public makes risky decisions about their health. Because risky sexual behaviors are known to be common in young adults, we investigated their decision making regarding sexual activities that could incur a high risk of HIV infection. Sixty young urban adults maintained journals for two weeks and were interviewed regarding condom use and sexual history. We characterized four patterns of condom use behavior: consistent (35.0%), inconsistent (16.7%), consistent to inconsistent (35.0%), and inconsistent to consistent (13.3%). Directionality of reasoning was analyzed in the explanations provided for condom use decisions. The consistent and inconsistent patterns were associated with data-driven heuristic reasoning, where behavior becomes automated and is associated with a high level of confidence in one's judgment. In the other two patterns, the shift in behavior was due to a significant event that influenced a change in directionality to explanation-based reasoning. We discuss these results within the framework of identifying potentially high-risk groups for whom customized intervention strategies (such as computer-based educational programs) can be used to reduce risk, thereby creating a culture of safer sexual practices.

Dietary patterns: biomarkers and chronic disease risk.

PubMed

Kant, Ashima K

2010-04-01

With increasing appreciation of the complexity of diets consumed by free-living individuals, there is interest in the assessment of the overall diet or dietary patterns in which multiple related dietary characteristics are considered as a single exposure. The 2 most frequently used methods to derive dietary patterns use (i) scores or indexes based on prevailing hypotheses about the role of dietary factors in disease prevention; and (ii) factors and clusters from exploration of available dietary data. A third method, a hybrid of the hypothesis-driven and data-driven methods, attempts to predict food combinations related to nutrients or biomarkers with hypothesized associations with particular health outcomes. Dietary patterns derived from the first 2 approaches have been examined in relation to nutritional and disease biomarkers and various health outcomes, and generally show the desirable dietary pattern to be consistent with prevalent beliefs about what constitutes a healthful diet. Results from observational studies suggest that the healthful dietary patterns were associated with significant but modest risk reduction (15%-30%) for all-cause mortality and coronary heart disease. Findings for various cancers have been inconsistent. The available randomized controlled intervention trials with a long-term follow-up to examine dietary patterns in relation to health outcome have generally produced null findings. Novel findings with the potential to change existing beliefs about diet and health relationships are yet to emerge from the dietary patterns research. The field requires innovation in methods to derive dietary patterns, validation of prevalent methods, and assessment of the effect of dietary measurement error on dietary patterns.

Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Albrich, Katharina; Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner

2018-03-01

In order to prevent irreversible impacts of climate change on the biosphere it is imperative to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the provisioning of renewable resources such as timber and biomass from forests is an ecosystem service of increasing importance. However, risk factors such as changing disturbance regimes are challenging the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services, and are thus a key concern in forest management. We here used simulation modeling to study different risk management strategies in the context of timber production under changing climate and disturbance regimes, focusing on a 8127 ha forest landscape in the Northern Front Range of the Alps in Austria. We show that under a continuation of historical management, disturbances from wind and bark beetles increase by +39.5% on average over 200 years in response to future climate change. Promoting mixed forests and climate-adapted tree species as well as increasing management intensity effectively reduced future disturbance risk. Analyzing the spatial patterns of disturbance on the landscape, we found a highly uneven distribution of risk among stands (Gini coefficients up to 0.466), but also a spatially variable effectiveness of silvicultural risk reduction measures. This spatial variability in the contribution to and control of risk can be used to inform disturbance management: Stands which have a high leverage on overall risk and for which risks can effectively be reduced (24.4% of the stands in our simulations) should be a priority for risk mitigation measures. In contrast, management should embrace natural disturbances for their beneficial effects on biodiversity in areas which neither contribute strongly to landscape-scale risk nor respond positively to risk mitigation measures (16.9% of stands). We here illustrate how spatial heterogeneity in forest landscapes can be harnessed to address both positive and negative effects of changing natural disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert; Albrich, Katharina; Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner

2018-01-01

In order to prevent irreversible impacts of climate change on the biosphere it is imperative to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the provisioning of renewable resources such as timber and biomass from forests is an ecosystem service of increasing importance. However, risk factors such as changing disturbance regimes are challenging the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services, and are thus a key concern in forest management. We here used simulation modeling to study different risk management strategies in the context of timber production under changing climate and disturbance regimes, focusing on a 8127 ha forest landscape in the Northern Front Range of the Alps in Austria. We show that under a continuation of historical management, disturbances from wind and bark beetles increase by +39.5% on average over 200 years in response to future climate change. Promoting mixed forests and climate-adapted tree species as well as increasing management intensity effectively reduced future disturbance risk. Analyzing the spatial patterns of disturbance on the landscape, we found a highly uneven distribution of risk among stands (Gini coefficients up to 0.466), but also a spatially variable effectiveness of silvicultural risk reduction measures. This spatial variability in the contribution to and control of risk can be used to inform disturbance management: Stands which have a high leverage on overall risk and for which risks can effectively be reduced (24.4% of the stands in our simulations) should be a priority for risk mitigation measures. In contrast, management should embrace natural disturbances for their beneficial effects on biodiversity in areas which neither contribute strongly to landscape-scale risk nor respond positively to risk mitigation measures (16.9% of stands). We here illustrate how spatial heterogeneity in forest landscapes can be harnessed to address both positive and negative effects of changing natural disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. PMID:29275284

Analysis of work zone rear-end crash risk for different vehicle-following patterns.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Meng, Qiang; Yan, Xuedong

2014-11-01

This study evaluates rear-end crash risk associated with work zone operations for four different vehicle-following patterns: car-car, car-truck, truck-car and truck-truck. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is adopted to measure work zone rear-end crash risk. Results show that the car-truck following pattern has the largest rear-end crash risk, followed by truck-truck, truck-car and car-car patterns. This implies that it is more likely for a car which is following a truck to be involved in a rear-end crash accident. The statistical test results further confirm that rear-end crash risk is statistically different between any two of the four patterns. We therefore develop a rear-end crash risk model for each vehicle-following pattern in order to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk and its influencing factors, including lane position, the heavy vehicle percentage, lane traffic flow and work intensity which can be characterized by the number of lane reductions, the number of workers and the amount of equipment at the work zone site. The model results show that, for each pattern, there will be a greater rear-end crash risk in the following situations: (i) heavy work intensity; (ii) the lane adjacent to work zone; (iii) a higher proportion of heavy vehicles and (iv) greater traffic flow. However, the effects of these factors on rear-end crash risk are found to vary according to the vehicle-following patterns. Compared with the car-car pattern, lane position has less effect on rear-end crash risk in the car-truck pattern. The effect of work intensity on rear-end crash risk is also reduced in the truck-car pattern. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unique dietary patterns and chronic disease risk profiles of adult men: the Framingham nutrition studies.

PubMed

Millen, Barbara E; Quatromoni, Paula A; Pencina, Michael; Kimokoti, Ruth; Nam, Byung-H O; Cobain, Sonia; Kozak, Waldemar; Appugliese, Danielle P; Ordovas, Jose; D'Agostino, Ralph B

2005-11-01

To identify the dietary patterns of adult men and examine their relationships with nutrient intake and chronic disease risk over long-term follow-up. Baseline 145-item food frequency questionnaires from 1,666 Framingham Offspring-Spouse cohort men were used to identify comprehensive dietary patterns. Independent 3-day dietary records at baseline and 8 years later provided estimates of subjects' nutrient intake by dietary pattern. Chronic disease risk factor status was compared at baseline and 16-year follow-up across all male dietary patterns. Cluster analysis was applied to food frequency data to identify non-overlapping male dietary patterns. Analysis of covariance and logistic regression were used to compare nutrient intake, summary nutritional risk scores, and chronic disease risk status at baseline and follow-up by male dietary pattern. Five distinct and comprehensive dietary patterns of Framingham Offspring-Spouse men were identified and ordered according to overall nutritional risk: Transition to Heart Healthy, Higher Starch, Average Male, Lower Variety, and Empty Calories. Nutritional risk was high and varied by dietary pattern; key nutrient contrasts were stable over 8-year follow-up. Chronic disease risk also varied by dietary pattern and specific subgroup differences persisted over 16 years, notably rates of overweight/obesity and smoking. Quantitative cluster analysis applied to food frequency questionnaire data identified five distinct, comprehensive, and stable dietary patterns of adult Framingham Offspring-Spouse cohort men. The close associations between the dietary patterns, nutritional risk, and chronic disease profiles of men emphasize the importance of targeted preventive nutrition interventions to promote health in the male population.

Landscape Fragmentation as a Risk Factor for Buruli Ulcer Disease in Ghana

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Smithwick, Erica A. H.

2016-01-01

Land cover and its change have been linked to Buruli ulcer (BU), a rapidly emerging tropical disease. However, it is unknown whether landscape structure affects the disease prevalence. To examine the association between landscape pattern and BU presence, we obtained land cover information for 20 villages in southwestern Ghana from high resolution satellite images, and analyzed the landscape pattern surrounding each village. Eight landscape metrics indicated that landscape patterns between BU case and reference villages were different (P < 0.05) at the broad spatial extent examined (4 km). The logistic regression models showed that landscape fragmentation and diversity indices were positively associated with BU presence in a village. Specifically, for each increase in patch density and edge density by 100 units, the likelihood of BU presence in a village increased 2.51 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36–4.61) and 4.18 (95% CI = 1.63–10.76) times, respectively. The results suggest that increased landscape fragmentation may pose a risk to the emergence of BU. PMID:27185767

Influence of the Angelina Jolie Announcement and Insurance Reimbursement on Practice Patterns for Hereditary Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Lee, Jihyoun; Kang, Eunyoung; Park, Suyeon; Kim, Zisun; Lee, Min Hyuk

2017-01-01

Lack of awareness, the stigma of carrying a genetic mutation, and economic factors are barriers to acceptance of BRCA genetic testing or appropriate risk management. We aimed to investigate the influence of Angelina Jolie's announcement of her medical experience and also health insurance reimbursement for BRCA gene testing on practice patterns for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC). A survey regarding changes in practice patterns for HBOC before and after the announcement was conducted online. The rate of BRCA gene testing was obtained from the National Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database. From May to August 2016, 70 physicians responded to the survey. Genetic testing recommendations and prophylactic management were increased after the announcement. Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy and contralateral prophylactic mastectomy was significantly increased in BRCA carriers with breast cancer. The BRCA testing rate increased annually. Health insurance and a celebrity announcement were associated with increased genetic testing. PMID:28690658

The Age-IPV Curve: Changes in Intimate Partner Violence Perpetration during Adolescence and Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Johnson, Wendi L.; Giordano, Peggy C.; Manning, Wendy D.; Longmore, Monica A.

2014-01-01

Research on intimate partner violence (IPV) has evolved over the last decade with increasing interest in how IPV develops over adolescence and young adulthood. Studies examining patterns of IPV over time have generally focused on victimization with less attention to temporal shifts in perpetration. While it is generally assumed that IPV peaks during young adulthood, this has not been empirically verified and documented. Additionally, prior longitudinal analyses of IPV have focused on identifying trajectories and their accompanying risk factors, with less attention given to within-individual change in IPV experiences across and within relationships. Drawing on five waves of data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS), we examined patterns of the perpetration of IPV among a diverse sample of adolescents and young adults (51.1% female, 63.9% non-Hispanic White, 24.6% non-Hispanic Black, 11.5% Hispanic) spanning the ages of 13–28 years (N = 1,164). Analyses demonstrated that IPV patterns deviate from the age-crime curve, with women’s involvement in IPV increasing, while their involvement in other antisocial behaviors is decreasing. Traditional behavioral and psychological risk factors (delinquency, alcohol and drug use, depressive symptoms) accounted for some of the age variation in IPV for men, but these factors did not account for age variation in IPV among women. Relationship risk factors including frequency of disagreements, trust, jealousy, validation and self-disclosure, however, accounted for substantial portions of the age-IPV perpetration relationship for male and female youth. These findings reinforce recent calls for prevention efforts that focus on the development and maintenance of healthy relationships. PMID:25081024

Application of Ecosystem Models to Assess Environmental Drivers of Mosquito Abundance and Virus Transmission Risk and Associated Public Health Implications of Climate and Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melton, F.; Barker, C.; Park, B.; Reisen, W.; Michaelis, A.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Hiatt, S.; Nemani, R.

2008-12-01

The NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) is a modeling framework that integrates satellite observations, meteorological observations, and ancillary data to support monitoring and modeling of ecosystem and land surface conditions in near real-time. TOPS provides spatially continuous gridded estimates of a suite of measurements describing environmental conditions, and these data products are currently being applied to support the development of new models capable of forecasting estimated mosquito abundance and transmission risk for mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. We present results from the modeling analyses, describe their incorporation into the California Vectorborne Disease Surveillance System, and describe possible implications of projected climate and land use change for patterns in mosquito abundance and transmission risk for West Nile virus in California.

Use of space-time models to investigate the stability of patterns of disease.

PubMed

Abellan, Juan Jose; Richardson, Sylvia; Best, Nicky

2008-08-01

The use of Bayesian hierarchical spatial models has become widespread in disease mapping and ecologic studies of health-environment associations. In this type of study, the data are typically aggregated over an extensive time period, thus neglecting the time dimension. The output of purely spatial disease mapping studies is therefore the average spatial pattern of risk over the period analyzed, but the results do not inform about, for example, whether a high average risk was sustained over time or changed over time. We investigated how including the time dimension in disease-mapping models strengthens the epidemiologic interpretation of the overall pattern of risk. We discuss a class of Bayesian hierarchical models that simultaneously characterize and estimate the stable spatial and temporal patterns as well as departures from these stable components. We show how useful rules for classifying areas as stable can be constructed based on the posterior distribution of the space-time interactions. We carry out a simulation study to investigate the sensitivity and specificity of the decision rules we propose, and we illustrate our approach in a case study of congenital anomalies in England. Our results confirm that extending hierarchical disease-mapping models to models that simultaneously consider space and time leads to a number of benefits in terms of interpretation and potential for detection of localized excesses.

Extinction risk escalates in the tropics.

PubMed

Vamosi, Jana C; Vamosi, Steven M

2008-01-01

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient remains one of the most widely recognized yet puzzling patterns in nature. Presently, the high level of extinction of tropical species, referred to as the "tropical biodiversity crisis", has the potential to erode this pattern. While the connection between species richness, extinction, and speciation has long intrigued biologists, these interactions have experienced increased poignancy due to their relevancy to where we should concentrate our conservation efforts. Natural extinction is a phenomenon thought to have its own latitudinal gradient, with lower extinction rates in the tropics being reported in beetles, birds, mammals, and bivalves. Processes that have buffered ecosystems from high extinction rates in the past may also buffer ecosystems against disturbance of anthropogenic origin. While potential parallels between historical and present-day extinction patterns have been acknowledged, they remain only superficially explored and plant extinction patterns have been particularly neglected. Studies on the disappearances of animal species have reached conflicting conclusions, with the rate of extinction appearing either higher or lower in species richness hotspots. Our global study of extinction risk in vascular plants finds disproportionately higher extinction risk in tropical countries, even when indicators of human pressure (GDP, population density, forest cover change) are taken into account. Our results are at odds with the notion that the tropics represent a museum of plant biodiversity (places of historically lowered extinction) and we discuss mechanisms that may reconcile this apparent contradiction.

Beyond the Floodplain: Drivers of Flood Risk in Coastal Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; McPhearson, T.; Rosi, E. J.

2017-12-01

While the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Katrina increased awareness of coastal flood risk, conventional approaches to flood risk assessment do not adequately represent the drivers of flood risk in the unique, highly engineered landscape of dense cities. We review the recent (1996-2016) history of flooding events and current regional climate change projection for 4 diverse coastal cities in the United States: San Juan, Miami, Baltimore and New York. Our review suggests that while all 4 of these cities face increased risk from direct coastal flooding with climate change, pluvial flooding will be an additional, important driver of risk that is currently poorly quantified. Unlike other types of flooding, pluvial flood risk is not limited to a contiguous riverine or coastal floodplain, but is instead driven by interactions between spatially variable geophysical drivers (intense rainfall, shallow groundwater, and influent tidal water), social drivers (patterns of land use) and technical drivers (urban stormwater and coastal infrastructure). We discuss approaches for quantitative assessment of pluvial flood risk, the challenges presented by the lack of data on geophysical flooding drivers in dense cities, and opportunities for integrated research to provide the scientific information needed by practitioners.

Climate change and health modeling: horses for courses.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Rocklöv, Joacim

2014-01-01

Mathematical and statistical models are needed to understand the extent to which weather, climate variability, and climate change are affecting current and may affect future health burdens in the context of other risk factors and a range of possible development pathways, and the temporal and spatial patterns of any changes. Such understanding is needed to guide the design and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Because each model projection captures only a narrow range of possible futures, and because models serve different purposes, multiple models are needed for each health outcome ('horses for courses'). Multiple modeling results can be used to bracket the ranges of when, where, and with what intensity negative health consequences could arise. This commentary explores some climate change and health modeling issues, particularly modeling exposure-response relationships, developing early warning systems, projecting health risks over coming decades, and modeling to inform decision-making. Research needs are also suggested.

Carbon pollution increases health inequities: lessons in resilience from the most vulnerable.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Fawcett, Stephen B; Spiegel, Jerry; Tovalin, Horacio

2016-09-01

Climate change is a social justice as well as an environmental issue. The magnitude and pattern of changes in weather and climate variables are creating differential exposures, vulnerabilities, and health risks that increase stress on health systems while exacerbating existing and creating new health inequities. Examples from national and local health adaptation projects highlight that developing partnerships across sectors and levels are critical for building climate-resilient health systems and communities. Strengthening current and implementing new health interventions, such as using environmental information to develop early warning systems, can be effective in protecting the most vulnerable. However, not all projected risks of climate change can be avoided by climate policies and programs, so health system strengthening is also critical. Applying a health inequity lens can reduce current vulnerabilities while building resilience to longer-term climate change. Taking inequities into account is critical if societies are to effectively prepare for and manage the challenges ahead.

Assessing future risks to agricultural productivity, water resources and food security: How can remote sensing help?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thenkabail, Prasad S.; Knox, Jerry W.; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Gumma, Murali Krishna; Congalton, Russell G.; Wu, Zhuoting; Milesi, Cristina; Finkral, Alex; Marshall, Mike; Mariotto, Isabella; You, Songcai; Giri, Chandra; Nagler, Pamela

2012-01-01

of changing dietary consumption patterns, a changing climate and the growing scarcity of water and land (Beddington, 2010). The impact from these changes wi ll affect the viability of both dryland subsistence and irrigated commodity food production (Knox, et al., 2010a). Since climate is a primary determinant of agricultural productivity, any changes will influence not only crop yields, but also the hydrologic balances, and supplies of inputs to managed farming systems as well as potentially shifting the geographic location for specific crops . Unless concerted and collective action is taken, society risks worldwide food shortages, scarcity of water resources and insufficient energy. This has the potential to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and migration as people flee the worst-affected regions to seck refuge in "safe havens", a situation that Beddington described as the "perfect storm" (2010).

Assessment and possible control of endemic measles in urban Nigeria.

PubMed

Byass, P; Adedeji, M D; Mongdem, J G; Zwandor, A C; Brew-Graves, S H; Clements, C J

1995-06-01

Measles remains as a serious problem of infancy and childhood in the developing world, despite the availability of a vaccine. Increasing urbanization is changing patterns of endemicity. A survey of measles in an urban area of Nigeria, using a rapid assessment approach, was carried out to characterize measles in this community. An annual incidence rate of 11.8% among under-fives was found, associated with an acute case fatality rate of 3.3%. This level of endemicity was two orders of magnitude greater than that suggested by official case reports. An endemic, rather than epidemic, pattern was found over the six-month period of the study. Vaccine efficacy was estimated at 26%. Risk factor analyses showed the major risks for measles to be clinic attendance in the month preceding disease, households with more than one mother, and having under-five siblings. Measles itself was the principal risk factor for malnutrition and against survival. Improved understanding of measles epidemiology and risk factors are prerequisites for effective control. Possible strategies should include vertical vaccination efforts in addition to routine programmes.

Identification and Evaluation of Integration and Cross Cutting Issues Across HRP Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, S. L.; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

The HRP Integrated Research Plan contains the research plans for the 32 risks requiring research to characterize and mitigate. These risks to human health and performance in spaceflight are identified by evidence and each one focuses on a single aspect of human physiology or performance. They are further categorized by aspects of the spaceflight environment, such as altered gravity or space radiation, that that play a major role in their likelihood and consequence. From its inception the "integrate" in the Research Plan has denoted the integrated nature of risks to human health and performance, the connectedness of physiological systems within the human body regardless of the spaceflight environment, and the integrated response of the human body to the spaceflight environment. Common characteristics of the spaceflight environment include altered gravity, atmospheres and light/dark cycles, space radiation, isolation, noise, and periods of high or low workload. Long term exposure to this unique environment produces a suite of physiological effects such as stress; vision, neurocognitive and anthropometric changes; circadian misalignment; fluid shifts, deconditioning; immune dysregulation; and altered nutritional requirements. Matrix diagraming was used to systematically identify, analyze and rate the many-to-many relationships between environmental characteristics and the suite of physiological effects. It was also to identify patterns in the relationships of common physiological effects to each other. Analyses of patterns or relationships in these diagrams help to identify issues that cut across multiple risks. Cross cutting issues benefit from a multidisciplinary approach that synthesizes concepts or data from two or more disciplines to identify and characterize risk factors or develop countermeasures relevant to multiple risks. They also help to illuminate possible problem areas that may arise when a countermeasure impacts risks other than those which it was developed to mitigate, or identify groupings of physiological changes that are likely to occur that may impact the overall risk posture.

Cardiovascular Disease and Patterns of Change in Functional Status Over 15 Years: Findings From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

PubMed

Kucharska-Newton, Anna; Griswold, Michael; Yao, Zhihao Howard; Foraker, Randi; Rose, Kathryn; Rosamond, Wayne; Wagenknecht, Lynne; Koton, Silvia; Pompeii, Lisa; Windham, B Gwen

2017-03-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of premature disability, yet few prospective studies have examined functional status (FS) among persons with CVD. Our aim was to examine patterns of change in FS prior to and after hospitalization for nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure among members of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study cohort. FS was assessed using a modified Rosow-Breslau questionnaire administered during routine annual telephone interviews conducted from 1993 through 2007 among 15 277 ARIC study participants. An FS score was constructed as a summary measure of responses to questions about participants' ability to perform selected tasks of daily living (eg, walking half a mile, climbing stairs). Incidence of CVD was assessed through ARIC surveillance of hospitalized events. Rate of change in FS over time prior to and following a CVD event was examined using generalized estimating equations. A decline in FS was observed on average 2 years prior to a myocardial infarction hospitalization and on average 3 years prior to a stroke or heart failure hospitalization. FS post-myocardial infarction declined relative to pre-event levels but improved to close to pre-myocardial infarction levels within 3 years. Decline in FS following incident heart failure and stroke remained over time. Observed patterns of change in FS did not differ appreciably by race or sex. This study documents that a decline in FS precedes incidence of CVD-related hospitalization by at least 2 years, providing a strong argument for routine preventative assessment of FS among older adults. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

Effect of genetic testing for risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus on health behaviors and outcomes: study rationale, development and design.

PubMed

Cho, Alex H; Killeya-Jones, Ley A; O'Daniel, Julianne M; Kawamoto, Kensaku; Gallagher, Patrick; Haga, Susanne; Lucas, Joseph E; Trujillo, Gloria M; Joy, Scott V; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S

2012-01-18

Type 2 diabetes is a prevalent chronic condition globally that results in extensive morbidity, decreased quality of life, and increased health services utilization. Lifestyle changes can prevent the development of diabetes, but require patient engagement. Genetic risk testing might represent a new tool to increase patients' motivation for lifestyle changes. Here we describe the rationale, development, and design of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) assessing the clinical and personal utility of incorporating type 2 diabetes genetic risk testing into comprehensive diabetes risk assessments performed in a primary care setting. Patients are recruited in the laboratory waiting areas of two primary care clinics and enrolled into one of three study arms. Those interested in genetic risk testing are randomized to receive either a standard risk assessment (SRA) for type 2 diabetes incorporating conventional risk factors plus upfront disclosure of the results of genetic risk testing ("SRA+G" arm), or the SRA alone ("SRA" arm). Participants not interested in genetic risk testing will not receive the test, but will receive SRA (forming a third, "no-test" arm). Risk counseling is provided by clinic staff (not study staff external to the clinic). Fasting plasma glucose, insulin levels, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference are measured at baseline and 12 months, as are patients' self-reported behavioral and emotional responses to diabetes risk information. Primary outcomes are changes in insulin resistance and BMI after 12 months; secondary outcomes include changes in diet patterns, physical activity, waist circumference, and perceived risk of developing diabetes. The utility, feasibility, and efficacy of providing patients with genetic risk information for common chronic diseases in primary care remain unknown. The study described here will help to establish whether providing type 2 diabetes genetic risk information in a primary care setting can help improve patients' clinical outcomes, risk perceptions, and/or their engagement in healthy behavior change. In addition, study design features such as the use of existing clinic personnel for risk counseling could inform the future development and implementation of care models for the use of individual genetic risk information in primary care. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00849563.

Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenzel, F.

2009-12-01

The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.

Integrating human and ecological risk assessment: application to the cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom problem.

PubMed

Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Munns, Wayne R

2008-01-01

Environmental and public health policy continues to evolve in response to new and complex social, economic and environmental drivers. Globalization and centralization of commerce, evolving patterns of land use (e.g., urbanization, deforestation), and technological advances in such areas as manufacturing and development of genetically modified foods have created new and complex classes of stressors and risks (e.g., climate change, emergent and opportunist disease, sprawl, genomic change). In recognition of these changes, environmental risk assessment and its use are changing from stressor-endpoint specific assessments used in command and control types of decisions to an integrated approach for application in community-based decisions. As a result, the process of risk assessment and supporting risk analyses are evolving to characterize the human-environment relationship. Integrating risk paradigms combine the process of risk estimation for humans, biota, and natural resources into one assessment to improve the information used in environmental decisions (Suter et al. 2003b). A benefit to this approach includes a broader, system-wide evaluation that considers the interacting effects of stressors on humans and the environment, as well the interactions between these entities. To improve our understanding of the linkages within complex systems, risk assessors will need to rely on a suite of techniques for conducting rigorous analyses characterizing the exposure and effects relationships between stressors and biological receptors. Many of the analytical techniques routinely employed are narrowly focused and unable to address the complexities of an integrated assessment. In this paper, we describe an approach to integrated risk assessment, and discuss qualitative community modeling and Probabilistic Relational Modeling techniques that address these limitations and evaluate their potential for use in an integrated risk assessment of cyanobacteria.

Geospatial Analysis of Urban Land Use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic Fever Risk - a Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izzah, L. N.; Majid, Z.; Ariff, M. A. M.; Fook, C. K.

2016-09-01

Human modification of the natural environment continues to create habitats in which vectors of a wide variety of human and animal pathogens (such as Plasmodium, Aedes aegypti, Arenavirus etc.) thrive if unabated with an enormous potential to negatively affect public health. Typical examples of these modifications include impoundments, dams, irrigation systems, landfills and so on that provide enabled environment for the transmission of Hemorrhagic fever such as malaria, dengue, avian flu, Lassa fever etc. Furthermore, contemporary urban dwelling pattern appears to be associated with the prevalence of Hemorrhagic diseases in recent years. These observations are not peculiar to the developing world, as urban expansion also contributes significantly to mosquito and other vectors habitats. This habitats offer breeding ground to some vector virus populations. The key to disease control is developing an understanding of the contribution of human landscape modification to vector-borne pathogen transmission and how a balance may be achieved between human development, public health, and responsible urban land use. A comprehensive review of urban land use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic fever risk has been conducted in this paper. The study found that most of the available literatures dwell more on the impact of urban land use on malaria and dengue fevers; however, studies are yet to be found discussing the implications of urban land use on the risk of Ebola, Lassa and other non-mosquito borne VHFs. A relational model for investigating the influence of urban land use change pattern on the risk of Hemorrhagic fever has been proposed in this study.

Assessment of hemodynamics of intracranial aneurysms using Doppler optical coherence tomography in patient specific phantoms: preliminary results (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramjist, Joel M.; Jivraj, Jamil; Barrows, Dexter; Vuong, Barry; Wong, Ronnie; Yang, Victor X. D.

2017-02-01

Intracranial aneurysms affect a large number of individuals every year. Changes to hemodynamics are thought to be a crucial factor in the initial formation and enlargement of intracranial aneurysms. Previously, surgical clipping - an open an invasive procedure, was the standard of care. More recently, minimally invasive, catheter based therapies, specifically stenting and coiling, has been employed for treatment as it is less invasive and poses fewer overall risks. However, these treatments can further alter hemodynamic patterns of patients, affecting efficacy and prognosis. Doppler optical coherence tomography (DOCT) has shown to be useful for the evaluation of changes to hemodynamic patterns in various vascular pathologies, and intravascular DOCT may provide useful insight in the evaluation and changes to hemodynamic patterns before and during the treatment of aneurysms. In this study, we present preliminary results of DOCT imaging used in three patient-specific aneurysm phantoms located within the Circle of Willis both pre and post-treatment. These results are compared with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and high-speed camera imaging for further interpretation and validation of results.

Growing number of female physicians changing the face of Canadian medicine.

PubMed Central

Birenbaum, R

1995-01-01

The growing number of female physicians is changing the way medicine is practised. One recent Canadian study found that "significant differences in practice characteristics and service mix and pattern between men and women." Another change involves differences in the way men and women communicate. One lawyer noted that most medical lawsuits involve a breakdown in communication between doctor and patient, and very few female physicians have been the target of malpractice suits--even in high-risk specialties such as obstetrics and anesthesiology. Images p1165-a PMID:7553527

Vegetarianism and colorectal cancer risk in a low-selenium environment: effect modification by selenium status? A possible factor contributing to the null results in British vegetarians.

PubMed

Sobiecki, Jakub G

2017-08-01

Despite the consistent findings of lower total cancer incidence in vegetarians than in meat-eaters in the UK, the results of studies of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in British vegetarians have largely been null. This was in contrast to the hypothesis of a decreased risk of CRC in this population due to null intake of red and processed meats and increased intake of fibre. Although the data are inconsistent, it has been suggested that selenium (Se) status may influence CRC risk. A literature review was performed of studies on CRC risk in vegetarians, Se intakes and status in vegetarians, and changes of Se intakes and status in the UK throughout the follow-up periods of studies on CRC risk in British vegetarians. Vegetarians in the UK and other low-Se areas were found to have low Se intakes and status compared to non-vegetarians. There was some evidence of a reverse J-shaped curve of Se intakes and status in the UK throughout the last three decades. These presumed patterns were followed by the changes in CRC mortality or incidence in British vegetarians during this period. Available data on Se intake and status in British vegetarians, as well as the relationship between their secular changes in the UK and changes in CRC risk in this dietary group, are compatible with the hypothesis that low Se status may contribute to the largely null results of studies of CRC risk in vegetarians in the UK.

U.S. Funding is insufficient to address the human health impacts of and public health responses to climate variability and change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Balbus, John; Kinney, Patrick L; Lipp, Erin; Mills, David; O'Neill, Marie S; Wilson, Mark L

2009-06-01

The need to identify and try to prevent adverse health impacts of climate change has risen to the forefront of climate change policy debates and become a top priority of the public health community. Given the observed and projected changes in climate and weather patterns, their current and anticipated health impacts, and the significant degree of regulatory discussion underway in the U.S. government, it is reasonable to determine the extent of federal investment in research to understand, avoid, prepare for, and respond to the human health impacts of climate change in the United States. In this commentary we summarize the health risks of climate change in the United States and examine the extent of federal funding devoted to understanding, avoiding, preparing for, and responding to the human health risks of climate change. Future climate change is projected to exacerbate various current health problems, including heat-related mortality, diarrheal diseases, and diseases associated with exposure to ozone and aeroallergens. Demographic trends and geophysical and socioeconomic factors could increase overall vulnerability. Despite these risks, extramural federal funding of climate change and health research is estimated to be < $3 million per year. Given the real risks that climate change poses for U.S. populations, the National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and other agencies need to have robust intramural and extramural programs, with funding of > $200 million annually. Oversight of the size and priorities of these programs could be provided by a standing committee within the National Academy of Sciences.

Cross-comparison of diet quality indices for predicting chronic disease risk: findings from the Observation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Luxembourg (ORISCAV-LUX) study.

PubMed

Alkerwi, Ala'a; Vernier, Cédric; Crichton, Georgina E; Sauvageot, Nicolas; Shivappa, Nitin; Hébert, James R

2015-01-28

The scientific community has become increasingly interested in the overall quality of diets rather than in single food-based or single nutrient-based approaches to examine diet-disease relationships. Despite the plethora of indices used to measure diet quality, there still exist questions as to which of these can best predict health outcomes. The present study aimed to compare the ability of five diet quality indices, namely the Recommendation Compliance Index (RCI), Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), and Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII), to detect changes in chronic disease risk biomarkers. Nutritional data from 1352 participants, aged 18-69 years, of the Luxembourg nationwide cross-sectional ORISCAV-LUX (Observation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Luxembourg) study, 2007-8, were used to calculate adherence to the diet quality index. General linear modelling was performed to assess trends in biomarkers according to adherence to different dietary patterns, after adjustment for age, sex, education level, smoking status, physical activity and energy intake. Among the five selected diet quality indices, the MDS exhibited the best ability to detect changes in numerous risk markers and was significantly associated with lower levels of LDL-cholesterol, apo B, diastolic blood pressure, renal function indicators (creatinine and uric acid) and liver enzymes (serum γ-glutamyl-transpeptidase and glutamate-pyruvate transaminase). Compared with other dietary patterns, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with a favourable cardiometabolic, hepatic and renal risk profile. Diets congruent with current universally accepted guidelines may be insufficient to prevent chronic diseases. Clinicians and public health decision makers should be aware of needs to improve the current dietary guidelines.

Dietary change and reduced breast cancer events among women without hot flashes after treatment of early-stage breast cancer: subgroup analysis of the Women's Healthy Eating and Living Study1234

PubMed Central

Pierce, John P; Natarajan, Loki; Caan, Bette J; Flatt, Shirley W; Kealey, Sheila; Gold, Ellen B; Hajek, Richard A; Newman, Vicky A; Rock, Cheryl L; Pu, Minya; Saquib, Nazmus; Stefanick, Marcia L; Thomson, Cynthia A; Parker, Barbara

2009-01-01

Background: A diet high in vegetables, fruit, and fiber and low in fat decreased additional risk of secondary breast cancer events in women without hot flashes (HF−) compared with that in women with hot flashes (HF+), possibly through lowered concentrations of circulating estrogens. Objective: The objective was to investigate the intervention effect by baseline quartiles of dietary pattern among breast cancer survivors in the HF− subgroup of the Women's Healthy Eating and Living Study. Design: A randomized controlled trial compared a putative cancer prevention diet with a diet of 5 servings of vegetables and fruit daily in early-stage breast cancer survivors. Participants did not experience hot flashes at baseline (n = 896). We confirmed cancer status for 96% of participants ≈7.3 y after enrollment. Results: The study intervention achieved a large between-group difference in dietary pattern that, at 4 y, was not significantly different across baseline quartiles of dietary pattern. The intervention group experienced fewer breast cancer events than did the comparison group for all of the baseline quartiles. This difference was significant only in upper baseline quartiles of intake of vegetables, fruit, and fiber and in the lowest quartile of fat. A significant trend for fewer breast cancer events was observed across quartiles of vegetable-fruit and fiber consumption. Conclusions: The secondary analysis showing the decreased risk in the HF− subgroup was not explained by amount of change in dietary pattern achieved. The difference was strongest in the quartile with the most putatively cancer-preventive dietary pattern at baseline. PMID:19339393

Temporal trends of cumulative risks to phthalate mixtures in the United States from 2005 to 2014

EPA Science Inventory

Phthalates are used in a wide range of consumer goods resulting in widespread exposures among the general population. Exposures to specific phthalates are expected to vary over time with changes in the patterns of phthalate use. We investigated the existence of trends in estimate...

Feasibility of recruiting families into a heart disease prevention program based on dietary patterns

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Offspring of parents with a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) inherit a similar genetic profile and share diet and lifestyle behaviors. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of recruiting families at risk of CVD to a dietary prevention program, determine the changes in diet achieved, an...

Developmental Changes in Dopamine Neurotransmission in Adolescence: Behavioral Implications and Issues in Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wahlstrom, Dustin; Collins, Paul; White, Tonya; Luciana, Monica

2010-01-01

Adolescence is characterized by increased risk-taking, novelty-seeking, and locomotor activity, all of which suggest a heightened appetitive drive. The neurotransmitter dopamine is typically associated with behavioral activation and heightened forms of appetitive behavior in mammalian species, and this pattern of activation has been described in…

Transitions from School to Work in Europe: Destandardization and Policy Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walther, Andreas; Plug, Wim

2006-01-01

This chapter deals with a fundamental change in young people's transitions to work. Flexible labor markets have led to a diversification of transition patterns, but policy measures are unresponsive to the needs and aspirations of young people. New risks and challenges emerge that are addressed differently in the different European societies.…

Foraging Activity Pattern Is Shaped by Water Loss Rates in a Diurnal Desert Rodent.

PubMed

Levy, Ofir; Dayan, Tamar; Porter, Warren P; Kronfeld-Schor, Noga

2016-08-01

Although animals fine-tune their activity to avoid excess heat, we still lack a mechanistic understanding of such behaviors. As the global climate changes, such understanding is particularly important for projecting shifts in the activity patterns of populations and communities. We studied how foraging decisions vary with biotic and abiotic pressures. By tracking the foraging behavior of diurnal desert spiny mice in their natural habitat and estimating the energy and water costs and benefits of foraging, we asked how risk management and thermoregulatory requirements affect foraging decisions. We found that water requirements had the strongest effect on the observed foraging decisions. In their arid environment, mice often lose water while foraging for seeds and cease foraging even at high energetic returns when water loss is high. Mice also foraged more often when energy expenditure was high and for longer times under high seed densities and low predation risks. Gaining insight into both energy and water balance will be crucial to understanding the forces exerted by changing climatic conditions on animal energetics, behavior, and ecology.

Influence of land-use dynamics on natural hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazza, Giacomo; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

2016-04-01

In the recent past the magnitude and frequency of natural hazard events has increased notably worldwide, along with global GDP. A higher number of elements are exposed to natural events, therefore the risk is higher. Both estimated losses and understanding about natural hazards have increased during the past decades, which is contradictory as we may logically think. Risk is increasing, due to climate change and societal change: more severe hazards are happening due to changing climatic patterns and conditions, while society is concentrating assets and people in punctual places leading to a higher exposure. Increasing surface of settled area and the concentration of highly valuable assets (e.g. technology) in exposed areas lead to higher probability of losses. Human use of land resources, namely landuse, is the product of human needs and biophysical characteristics of the land. Landuse involves arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. These changes are due to many reasons, or driving factors: socio-economical, environmental, accessibility to land, land-tenure, etc. The change of those factors may cause many effects and impacts, at various levels and at different time spans. The relation between driving factors and impacts is not straight. It is although a complex interrelation that turns around two central questions: (1) what drives landuse changes and why and (2) what are the impacts on the environment and on the human society of these changes, regarding to natural hazards. The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatio-temporal environmental changes referring to exposure as well as to test the possibilities and limitations of the land use change model Dyna-CLUEs in a mountain region taking parts of the Republic of Austria as an example, and simulating the future landuse dynamics until 2030. We selected an area composed by eighteen municipalities in the Ill-Walgau in the Austrian federal state of Vorarlberg. The choice is due to the interesting spatial arrangement of the area which alternate a well-developed infrastructure network, a high percentage in forest cover, industrial areas and two relatively big cities, Feldkirch and Bludenz. As we observed, the past two decades did not face substantial landuse change - in comparison with the decades from the 1950s to the 1990s - hence we may also expect that the next three decades will follow the same trend of the recent past. Four scenarios were built in order to end up with four future landuse maps. We cross-checked these maps with hazard zoning by the Austrian Torrent and Avalanche Control Service (WLV) and the zonation by the Austrian Hydraulic Engineering Administration (BWV). Excluding a significant change in the next 30 years in the hazard propagation (intensity, frequency, etc.) - hence excluding climate change effects - we observed how the risk changes with changing landuse patterns throughout the years. The study aims to show the importance of spatial planning and restriction policies in mitigation of natural hazards. Still, the spatial planning is or should be one fundamental pillar of risk management, although is not yet a homogenous and standardized element in risk management in Austria.

Maternal dietary patterns during pregnancy and risk of wheeze and eczema in Japanese infants aged 16-24 months: the Osaka Maternal and Child Health Study.

PubMed

Miyake, Yoshihiro; Okubo, Hitomi; Sasaki, Satoshi; Tanaka, Keiko; Hirota, Yoshio

2011-11-01

Maternal diet during pregnancy might influence the development of childhood allergic disorders.   This prospective study examined the relationship between maternal dietary patterns during pregnancy and the risk of wheeze and eczema in the offspring aged 16-24 months. Subjects were 763 mother-child pairs. Data on maternal intake during pregnancy were assessed with a diet history questionnaire. Dietary patterns were derived from factor analysis of 33 predefined food groups. Symptoms of wheeze and eczema were based on criteria of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood. Adjustment was made for maternal age, gestation, residential municipality, family income, maternal and paternal education, maternal and paternal history of allergic disorders, changes in maternal diet in pregnancy, season at baseline, maternal smoking during pregnancy, baby's older siblings, sex, birth weight, age at the third survey, household smoking, and breastfeeding duration. Three dietary patterns were identified: 'healthy', characterized by high intake of green and yellow vegetables, seaweed, mushrooms, white vegetables, pulses, potatoes, fish, sea products, fruit, and shellfish; 'Western', characterized by high intake of vegetable oil, salt-containing seasonings, beef and pork, processed meat, eggs, chicken, and white vegetables; and 'Japanese', characterized by high intake of rice, miso soup, sea products, and fish. There was a tendency for an inverse exposure-response relationship between the maternal Western pattern during pregnancy and the risk of childhood wheeze by crude analysis. After adjustment for the confounding factors under study, the inverse relationship was strengthened: the adjusted OR between extreme quartiles was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.35-0.98, p for trend = 0.02). No such inverse association was observed for childhood eczema. Neither the maternal healthy pattern nor the Japanese pattern during pregnancy was related to childhood wheeze or eczema. The maternal Western pattern during pregnancy may be preventive against wheeze in the offspring. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Hospitalizations for Accidents and Injuries in the U.S. Navy. III. Time in Assignment and Seniority.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART NATIONAL BJREAU OF STANARDS 1963 A 2i ... ........................ . . . . . . . . . . . . AD-A161 677 HOSPITALIZATIONS FOR...formula ( Lilienfeld and Lilien- feld, 19801: p ± 1.96 (p)(l-P) N Relative risk levels were then computed as the ratio of these rates; 95% confidence...financial change, etc.) which bring about a significant change * in an individual’s ongoing life pattern may cause psychological turrmoil that can

Comparative epidemiology of cancer between the United States and Japan. A second look.

PubMed

Wynder, E L; Fujita, Y; Harris, R E; Hirayama, T; Hiyama, T

1991-02-01

Vital statistics were examined for the years 1955 through 1985 for Japanese natives and United States whites to elucidate changes in cancer mortality and related antecedent patterns of life-style in these two populations. Results show that lung cancer rates are rapidly accelerating among Japanese males as a consequence of their prior history of heavy cigarette smoking. Oropharyngeal cancer rates are also rising in Japan paralleling increases in alcohol and tobacco utilization. As the Japanese life-style and diet continue to become more "westernized," the rates of malignancies of the breast, ovary, corpus uteri, prostate, pancreas, and colon also continue to rise. Nevertheless, the mortality patterns of certain malignancies, viz., laryngeal, esophageal, and urinary bladder cancer, are discrepant with their established risk factor associations, suggesting the existence of other differences in risk factor exposure between the two countries. Epidemiologists and health educators need to develop innovative international programs of investigation and health promotion with preventive impact on common malignancies associated with risk factors of life-style.

Perception of Climate Risk among Rural Farmers in Vietnam: Consistency within Households and with the Empirical Record.

PubMed

Cullen, Alison C; Anderson, C Leigh

2017-03-01

Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers' perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate-related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate-related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate-related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Changing pattern of landslide risk in Europe - The SafeLand project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadim, F.; Kalsnes, B. G.; SafeLand Research Consortium

2011-12-01

The changing pattern of landslide hazard and risk caused by climate change and changes in demography, the need to protect people and property, the reality for society in Europe to live with hazard and risk and the need to manage risk were the motives for the project SafeLand: "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies." SafeLand is a large, integrating research project under the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme (FP7). It started on 1 May 2009 and will go on for 3 years, ending on 30 April 2012. There project involves 27 partners from 12 European countries, and has international collaborators and advisers from China, India, USA, Japan and Hong Kong. SafeLand also involves 25 End-Users from 11 countries. SafeLand is coordinated by the International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) at Norwegian Geotechnical Institute in Norway. Further information on the SafeLand project can be found at its web site http://www.safeland-fp7.eu/ . SafeLand is an ongoing project, which results will be finalized in 2012. This lecture summarizes the SafeLand's activities and achievements until November 2011. The main results achieved so far include: - Development and testing of several empirical methods for predicting the characteristics of threshold rainfall events for triggering of precipitation-induced landslides. - Identification of landslide hazard and risk hotspots by an objective, GIS-based analysis for Europe. The results show clearly where landslides pose the largest hazard in Europe and the objective approach allows a ranking of the countries by exposed area and population. - Different regional climate model simulations over Europe (from the EU FP6 project ENSEMBLES) at a spatial resolution of 25 x 25 km have been used to perform an extreme value analysis for trends in heavy precipitation events. In winter a general trend towards more heavy precipitation events across all analyzed regional climate model simulations is found. For summer, a slight increase of heavy precipitation in Northern Europe and a general decrease in southern Europe is found in all regional climate model simulations. - The prototype of a web-based "toolbox" of innovative and technically appropriate prevention and mitigation measures was developed. The toolbox does a preliminary assessment and ranking of up to 60 structural and non-structural landslide risk mitigation options. - Development of an empirical model for assessing the changes in landslide frequency (hazard) as a function of changes in the demography and population density. - Case histories and "hotspots" of European Land¬slides have been collected and documented. Data for 41 potential case study sites have been compiled and summarized. These comprise 39 sites in Europe located in Italy, France, Norway, Switzerland, Austria, Andorra, and Romania; as well as one site in Canada and one in India. Almost every type of landslide and every type of movement is represented in these sites. - Research on stakeholder workshops and participatory processes to involve the population exposed to landslide risk in the decision-making process for choosing the most appropriate risk mitigation measure(s).

Descriptive and Prospective Analysis of Young Adult Alcohol Use and Romantic Relationships: Disentangling between- and within-Person Associations Using Monthly Assessments.

PubMed

Fleming, Charles B; Lee, Christine M; Rhew, Isaac C; Ramirez, Jason J; Abdallah, Devon Alisa; Fairlie, Anne M

2018-05-08

Prior research on romantic relationships and alcohol use among young adults has not distinguished between differences in patterns of relationship status over extended periods of time and within-person changes in status that only occur for some individuals. This study captured between-person differences in relationship patterns, assessed associations between relationship patterns and alcohol use, and examined within-person associations between alcohol use and relationship status changes. In addition, age and sex differences in between- and within-person associations were tested. We used multilevel modeling of monthly data collected over one year on alcohol use and romantic relationship status from a Seattle area community sample of 620 young adults (ages 18-24). Participants were coded into six relationship pattern groups: (1) single-not-dating (16%), (2) stable-in-a-relationship (30%), (3) single-dating (10%), (4) ended-a-relationship (14%), (5) started-a-relationship (13%), and (6) ended-and-started-a-relationship (18%). Single-not-dating and stable-in-a-relationship groups reported the least drinking across the entire year; the single-dating, ended-a-relationship, and ended-and-started-a-relationship groups reported higher levels of drinking. Examining within-person changes in groups 3-6 revealed increases in drinking associated with months of dating among the single-dating group, months postbreakup among the ended-a-relationship group, and months of breaking up and starting a new relationship among the ended-and-started-a-relationship group. Few differences by age or sex were found for between- or within-person associations. The findings point to heterogeneity in patterns of relationship status over time, differences in relationship patterns associated with variations in drinking, and particular time points of elevated risk for young adults who experience changes in status.

Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models.

PubMed

Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

2006-02-01

Matrix population growth models are standard tools for forecasting population change and for managing rare species, but they are less useful for predicting extinction risk in the face of changing environmental conditions. Deterministic models provide point estimates of lambda, the finite rate of increase, as well as measures of matrix sensitivity and elasticity. Stationary matrix models can be used to estimate extinction risk in a variable environment, but they assume that the matrix elements are randomly sampled from a stationary (i.e., non-changing) distribution. Here we outline a method for using nonstationary matrix models to construct realistic forecasts of population fluctuation in changing environments. Our method requires three pieces of data: (1) field estimates of transition matrix elements, (2) experimental data on the demographic responses of populations to altered environmental conditions, and (3) forecasting data on environmental drivers. These three pieces of data are combined to generate a series of sequential transition matrices that emulate a pattern of long-term change in environmental drivers. Realistic estimates of population persistence and extinction risk can be derived from stochastic permutations of such a model. We illustrate the steps of this analysis with data from two populations of Sarracenia purpurea growing in northern New England. Sarracenia purpurea is a perennial carnivorous plant that is potentially at risk of local extinction because of increased nitrogen deposition. Long-term monitoring records or models of environmental change can be used to generate time series of driver variables under different scenarios of changing environments. Both manipulative and natural experiments can be used to construct a linking function that describes how matrix parameters change as a function of the environmental driver. This synthetic modeling approach provides quantitative estimates of extinction probability that have an explicit mechanistic basis.

Health consequences of postsocialist transition: dietary and lifestyle determinants of plasma lipids in Yakutia.

PubMed

Sorensen, M V; Snodgrass, J J; Leonard, W R; Tarskaia, A; Ivanov, K I; Krivoshapkin, V G; Spitsyn, V A

2005-01-01

The rapid social and cultural changes introduced by the collapse of the Soviet Union have resulted in important differences in cardiovascular health for indigenous Siberians. This study investigated diet and lifestyle determinants of plasma lipids in the Yakut, an indigenous Siberian herding population. The study used a cross-sectional design with data on 201 subjects in three urbanized towns and three rural communities in northeastern Siberia. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, dietary intake, and material lifestyle were collected, and lipids were analyzed from venous whole blood. Diet was analyzed using patterns of dietary intake based on principal components analysis of a dietary intake (food frequency) questionnaire. We identified three diet patterns: a traditional subsistence diet, a market foods diet, and a mixed diet. The effect of lifestyle on cardiovascular risk factors was measured using an ethnographically defined lifestyle index, with two orthogonal dimensions: subsistence lifestyle and modern lifestyle. Total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) were significantly higher among those consuming a traditional subsistence diet of meat and dairy products. A modern lifestyle was associated with lower TC and LDL but higher adiposity and higher risk of obesity. LDL and TC were higher in rural communities and lower in urbanized towns. The significantly higher lipid levels associated with a subsistence diet and indirectly with a subsistence lifestyle indicate the emergence of a significant health problem associated with the social and cultural changes occurring in Yakutia today. These findings underscore the need for dietary modification and promotion of physical activity among those most at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Moreover, these results differ from those commonly seen in "modernizing" populations, in that elements of subsistence lifestyle are associated with an elevated rather than reduced risk of CVD. Such variable responses to lifestyle change emphasize the need to better understand the distinct social and historical events that may influence health changes among populations in transition. Copyright 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc

IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF HUMAN HEALTH RISKS OF CHEMICALS IN THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

PubMed Central

Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair BA; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

2013-01-01

Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:62–78. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23147420

Relating farmer's perceptions of climate change risk to adaptation behaviour in Hungary.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Harrison, Paula A; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2017-01-01

Understanding how farmers perceive climate change risks and how this affects their willingness to adopt adaptation practices is critical for developing effective climate change response strategies for the agricultural sector. This study examines (i) the perceptual relationships between farmers' awareness of climate change phenomena, beliefs in climate change risks and actual adaptation behaviour, and (ii) how these relationships may be modified by farm-level antecedents related to human, social, financial capitals and farm characteristics. An extensive household survey was designed to investigate the current pattern of adaptation strategies and collect data on these perceptual variables and their potential antecedents from private landowners in Veszprém and Tolna counties, Hungary. Path analysis was used to explore the causal connections between variables. We found that belief in the risk of climate change was heightened by an increased awareness of directly observable climate change phenomena (i.e. water shortages and extreme weather events). The awareness of extreme weather events was a significant driver of adaptation behaviour. Farmers' actual adaptation behaviour was primarily driven by financial motives and managerial considerations (i.e. the aim of improving profit and product sales; gaining farm ownership and the amount of land managed; and, the existence of a successor), and stimulated by an innovative personality and the availability of information from socio-agricultural networks. These results enrich the empirical evidence in support of improving understanding of farmer decision-making processes, which is critical in developing well-targeted adaptation policies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The reproductive endocrinology of the menopausal transition.

PubMed

Butler, Laura; Santoro, Nanette

2011-06-01

The menopause transition is a dynamic process that begins with the first appearance of menstrual irregularity and ends with a woman's final menstrual period. As ovarian follicle numbers dwindle, the hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis enters a state of compensated failure. In this state, elevated FSH is capable of maintaining relatively regular folliculogenesis and ovulation, but fertility is reduced. Eventually, this state of compensated failure cannot be sustained, and the ovary becomes unable to produce functioning follicles. Recent multicenter studies from several countries have addressed the pattern of change in hormones and a model form reproductive aging has been developed that helps explain the changes in hormone patterns and fertility that accompany menopause. Perhaps more important, the hormonal changes of the menopausal transition may be predictive of future disease risk. This review will undertake an explanation of the current literature on this topic. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in toe clearance during treadmill walking after long-duration spaceflight.

PubMed

Miller, Christopher A; Peters, Brian T; Brady, Rachel R; Richards, Jason R; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert J; Mulavara, Ajitkumar P; Bloomberg, Jacob J

2010-10-01

Astronauts exhibit sensorimotor changes upon return from long-duration spaceflight that can result in altered gait kinematics and possibly an increased risk of tripping. Toe trajectory during locomotion is a precise motor control task involving both legs, thus providing a composite metric of locomotor control. The purpose of this study was to determine whether astronauts are at an increased risk of tripping after their return from long-duration spaceflight. This was accomplished by assessing the pre- to postflight changes in toe clearance during treadmill walking. Ten crewmembers walked on a treadmill while performing a visual-acuity task pre- and postflight. In the three subjects on whom landing day data were available, each exhibited a characteristic of increased tripping risk on landing day: either a decreased median toe clearance or an increased interquartile range (a measure of variance). For all crewmembers, toe clearance median and interquartile range were not significantly different from preflight for the other postflight sessions (the earliest being 1 d after landing). A follow-up analysis showed that changes in foot pitch, ankle dorsiflexion, and pelvis roll angles were significant predictors of changes in toe clearance. The landing-day observations indicated an increased risk of tripping, which may pose a hazard during locomotion immediately upon return to Earth, especially in an emergency scenario. However, tripping risk on subsequent days was not different than preflight. The joint angle analysis suggested that the crewmembers tried to reestablish their normal walking pattern postflight, instead of developing a new motor control strategy.

Human Health Impacts of and Public Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebi, K. L.

2007-12-01

Weather and climate are among the factors that determine the geographic range and incidence of several major causes of ill health, including undernutrition, diarrheal diseases and other conditions due to unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation, and malaria. The Human Health chapter in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, and that projected climate change will increase the risks of climate-sensitive health outcomes, particularly in lower-income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries. Those at greatest risk include the urban poor, older adults, children, traditional societies, subsistence farmers, and coastal populations, particularly in low income countries. The cause-and-effect chain from climate change to changing patterns of health determinants and outcomes is complex and includes socioeconomic, institutional, and other factors. The severity of future impacts will be determined by changes in climate as well as by concurrent changes in nonclimatic factors and by the adaptation measures implemented to reduce negative impacts. Public health has a long history of effectively intervening to reduce risks to the health of individuals and communities. Lessons learned from more than 150 years of research and intervention can provide insights to guide the design and implementation of effective and efficient interventions to reduce the current and projected impacts of climate variability and change.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Bird mercury concentrations change rapidly as chicks age: Toxicological risk is highest at hatching and fledging.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Herzog, Mark P.

2011-01-01

Toxicological risk of methylmercury exposure to juvenile birds is complex due to the highly transient nature of mercury concentrations as chicks age. We examined total mercury and methylmercury concentrations in blood, liver, kidney, muscle, and feathers of 111 Forster's tern (Sterna forsteri), 69 black-necked stilt (Himantopus mexicanus), and 43 American avocet (Recurvirostra americana) chicks as they aged from hatching through postfledging at wetlands that had either low or high mercury contamination in San Francisco Bay, California. For each waterbird species, internal tissue, and wetland, total mercury and methylmercury concentrations changed rapidly as chicks aged and exhibited a quadratic, U-shaped pattern from hatching through postfledging. Mercury concentrations were highest immediately after hatching, due to maternally deposited mercury in eggs, then rapidly declined as chicks aged and diluted their mercury body burden through growth in size and mercury depuration into growing feathers. Mercury concentrations then increased during fledging when mass gain and feather growth slowed, while chicks continued to acquire dietary mercury. In contrast to mercury in internal tissues, mercury concentrations in chick feathers were highly variable and declined linearly with age. For 58 recaptured Forster's tern chicks, the proportional change in blood mercury concentration was negatively related to the proportional change in body mass, but not to the amount of feathers or wing length. Thus, mercury concentrations declined more in chicks that gained more mass between sampling events. The U-shaped pattern of mercury concentrations from hatching to fledging indicates that juvenile birds may be at highest risk to methylmercury toxicity shortly after hatching when maternally deposited mercury concentrations are still high and again after fledging when opportunities for mass dilution and mercury excretion into feathers are limited.

Maternal immune activation causes age- and region-specific changes in brain cytokines in offspring throughout development

PubMed Central

Garay, Paula A.; Hsiao, Elaine Y.; Patterson, Paul H.; McAllister, A. Kimberley

2012-01-01

Maternal infection is a risk factor for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and schizophrenia (SZ). Indeed, modeling this risk factor in mice through maternal immune activation (MIA) causes ASD- and SZ-like neuropathologies and behaviors in the offspring. Although MIA upregulates pro-inflammatory cytokines in the fetal brain, whether MIA leads to long-lasting changes in brain cytokines during postnatal development remains unknown. Here, we tested this possibility by measuring protein levels of 23 cytokines in the blood and three brain regions from offspring of poly(I:C)- and saline-injected mice at five postnatal ages using multiplex arrays. Most cytokines examined are present in sera and brains throughout development. MIA induces changes in the levels of many cytokines in the brains and sera of offspring in a region- and age-specific manner. These MIA-induced changes follow a few, unexpected and distinct patterns. In frontal and cingulate cortices, several, mostly pro-inflammatory, cytokines are elevated at birth, followed by decreases during periods of synaptogenesis and plasticity, and increases again in the adult. Cytokines are also altered in postnatal hippocampus, but in a pattern distinct from the other regions. The MIA-induced changes in brain cytokines do not correlate with changes in serum cytokines from the same animals. Finally, these MIA-induced cytokine changes are not accompanied by breaches in the blood-brain barrier, immune cell infiltration or increases in microglial density. Together, these data indicate that MIA leads to long-lasting, region-specific changes in brain cytokines in offspring—similar to those reported for ASD and SZ—that may alter CNS development and behavior. PMID:22841693

Breeding phenology of birds: mechanisms underlying seasonal declines in the risk of nest predation.

PubMed

Borgmann, Kathi L; Conway, Courtney J; Morrison, Michael L

2013-01-01

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.

Breeding Phenology of Birds: Mechanisms Underlying Seasonal Declines in the Risk of Nest Predation

PubMed Central

Borgmann, Kathi L.; Conway, Courtney J.; Morrison, Michael L.

2013-01-01

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation. PMID:23776566

Depression impacts the physiological responsiveness of mother–daughter dyads during social interaction

PubMed Central

Amole, Marlissa C.; Cyranowski, Jill M.; Wright, Aidan G. C.; Swartz, Holly A.

2017-01-01

Background Maternal depression is associated with increased risk of psychiatric illness in offspring. While risk may relate to depressed mothers' difficulties regulating emotions in the context of interacting with offspring, physiological indicators of emotion regulation have rarely been examined during mother–child interactions—and never among mother–adolescent dyads in which both mother and adolescent have histories of major depressive disorder (MDD). Methods We examined changes in high-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV), an indicator of parasympathetic (vagal) function that has been related to depression, stress, social engagement, and emotion regulation, in 46 mother–daughter dyads (23 in which both mother and daughter had an MDD history and 23 never-depressed controls). Hierarchical linear models evaluated changes in HF-HRV while mother–daughter dyads engaged in discussions about shared pleasant events and relationship conflicts. Results While control dyads displayed positive slopes (increases) in HF-HRV during both discussions, MDD dyads displayed minimal change in HF-HRV across discussions. Among controls, HF-HRV slopes were positively correlated between mothers and daughters during the pleasant events' discussion. In contrast, HF-HRV slopes were negatively correlated between MDD mothers and daughters during both discussions. Conclusions Vagal responses observed in control mother–daughter dyads suggest a pattern of physiological synchrony and reciprocal positive social engagement, which may play a role in adolescent development of secure social attachments and healthy emotion regulation. In contrast, MDD mothers and daughters displayed diminished and discordant patterns of vagal responsiveness. More research is needed to understand the development and consequences of these patterns of parasympathetic responses among depressed mother–daughter dyads. PMID:28060443

Depression impacts the physiological responsiveness of mother-daughter dyads during social interaction.

PubMed

Amole, Marlissa C; Cyranowski, Jill M; Wright, Aidan G C; Swartz, Holly A

2017-02-01

Maternal depression is associated with increased risk of psychiatric illness in offspring. While risk may relate to depressed mothers' difficulties regulating emotions in the context of interacting with offspring, physiological indicators of emotion regulation have rarely been examined during mother-child interactions-and never among mother-adolescent dyads in which both mother and adolescent have histories of major depressive disorder (MDD). We examined changes in high-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV), an indicator of parasympathetic (vagal) function that has been related to depression, stress, social engagement, and emotion regulation, in 46 mother-daughter dyads (23 in which both mother and daughter had an MDD history and 23 never-depressed controls). Hierarchical linear models evaluated changes in HF-HRV while mother-daughter dyads engaged in discussions about shared pleasant events and relationship conflicts. While control dyads displayed positive slopes (increases) in HF-HRV during both discussions, MDD dyads displayed minimal change in HF-HRV across discussions. Among controls, HF-HRV slopes were positively correlated between mothers and daughters during the pleasant events' discussion. In contrast, HF-HRV slopes were negatively correlated between MDD mothers and daughters during both discussions. Vagal responses observed in control mother-daughter dyads suggest a pattern of physiological synchrony and reciprocal positive social engagement, which may play a role in adolescent development of secure social attachments and healthy emotion regulation. In contrast, MDD mothers and daughters displayed diminished and discordant patterns of vagal responsiveness. More research is needed to understand the development and consequences of these patterns of parasympathetic responses among depressed mother-daughter dyads. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Antibiotic-Impregnated Central Venous Catheters Do Not Change Antibiotic Resistance Patterns.

PubMed

Turnbull, Isaiah R; Buckman, Sara A; Horn, Christopher B; Bochicchio, Grant V; Mazuski, John E

2018-01-01

Antibiotic-impregnated central venous catheters (CVCs) decrease the incidence of infection in high-risk patients. However, use of these catheters carries the hypothetical risk of inducing antibiotic resistance. We hypothesized that routine use of minocycline and rifampin-impregnated catheters (MR-CVC) in a single intensive care unit (ICU) would change the resistance profile for Staphylococcus aureus. We reviewed antibiotic susceptibilities of S. aureus isolates obtained from blood cultures in a large urban teaching hospital from 2002-2015. Resistance patterns were compared before and after implementation of MR-CVC use in the surgical ICU (SICU) in August 2006. We also compared resistance patterns of S. aureus obtained in other ICUs and in non-ICU patients, in whom MR-CVCs were not used. Data for rifampin, oxacillin, and clindamycin were available for 9,703 cultures; tetracycline resistance data were available for 4,627 cultures. After implementation of MR-CVC use in the SICU, rifampin resistance remained unchanged, with rates the same as in other ICU and non-ICU populations (3%). After six years of use of MR-CVCs in the SICU, the rate of tetracycline resistance was unchanged in all facilities (1%-3%). The use of MR-CVCs was not associated with any change in S. aureus oxacillin-resistance rates in the SICU (66% vs. 60%). However, there was a significant decrease in S. aureus clindamycin resistance (59% vs. 34%; p < 0.05) in SICU patients. Routine use of rifampin-minocycline-impregnated CVCs in the SICU was not associated with increased resistance of S. aureus isolates to rifampin or tetracyclines.

Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees

2013-04-01

In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. This paper presents the main components of the SDSS and the overall design and plans for the user interface.

Contact, Travel, and Transmission: The Impact of Winter Holidays on Influenza Dynamics in the United States.

PubMed

Ewing, Anne; Lee, Elizabeth C; Viboud, Cécile; Bansal, Shweta

2017-03-01

The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns. We aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial influenza transmission. We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model. Winter holidays reduced influenza transmission and delayed the trajectory of influenza season epidemics. The holiday period was marked by a shift in the relative risk of disease from children toward adults. Model results indicated that holidays delayed epidemic peaks and synchronized incidence across locations, and that contact reductions from school closures, rather than age-specific mixing and travel, produced these observed holiday influenza dynamics. Winter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk toward adults because of changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The persuasion network is modulated by drug-use risk and predicts anti-drug message effectiveness

PubMed Central

Mangus, J Michael; Turner, Benjamin O

2017-01-01

Abstract While a persuasion network has been proposed, little is known about how network connections between brain regions contribute to attitude change. Two possible mechanisms have been advanced. One hypothesis predicts that attitude change results from increased connectivity between structures implicated in affective and executive processing in response to increases in argument strength. A second functional perspective suggests that highly arousing messages reduce connectivity between structures implicated in the encoding of sensory information, which disrupts message processing and thereby inhibits attitude change. However, persuasion is a multi-determined construct that results from both message features and audience characteristics. Therefore, persuasive messages should lead to specific functional connectivity patterns among a priori defined structures within the persuasion network. The present study exposed 28 subjects to anti-drug public service announcements where arousal, argument strength, and subject drug-use risk were systematically varied. Psychophysiological interaction analyses provide support for the affective-executive hypothesis but not for the encoding-disruption hypothesis. Secondary analyses show that video-level connectivity patterns among structures within the persuasion network predict audience responses in independent samples (one college-aged, one nationally representative). We propose that persuasion neuroscience research is best advanced by considering network-level effects while accounting for interactions between message features and target audience characteristics. PMID:29140500

Seasonal changes in partial, reverse diel vertical migrations of cisco Coregonus artedi.

PubMed

Ahrenstorff, T D; Hrabik, T R

2016-09-01

The objectives of this study were to (1) document changes in partial, reverse diel vertical migrations (DVM) patterns of cisco Coregonus artedi in Ten Mile Lake, MN, U.S.A., throughout the year and (2) evaluate the mechanisms that may cause shifts in migration behaviour. Results indicated that C. artedi vertical distributions remained deep in the water column during the day and night of the spring and autumn, which was related to a low risk, low reward strategy. During summer, a partial migration occurred where a portion of the population remained deeper according to the low risk, low reward strategy, while the other portion performed a more extensive high risk, high reward reverse DVM. In winter, C. artedi did not migrate because there were only low risk, low reward conditions present at all depths. The extensive partial, reverse DVM during summer probably increased the growth potential of C. artedi, helping individuals survive in a lake with low zooplankton prey resources. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Impaired cognitive discrimination and discoordination of coupled theta-gamma oscillations in Fmr1 knockout mice.

PubMed

Radwan, Basma; Dvorak, Dino; Fenton, André A

2016-04-01

Fragile X syndrome (FXS) patients do not make the fragile X mental retardation protein (FMRP). The absence of FMRP causes dysregulated translation, abnormal synaptic plasticity and the most common form of inherited intellectual disability. But FMRP loss has minimal effects on memory itself, making it difficult to understand why the absence of FMRP impairs memory discrimination and increases risk of autistic symptoms in patients, such as exaggerated responses to environmental changes. While Fmr1 knockout (KO) and wild-type (WT) mice perform cognitive discrimination tasks, we find abnormal patterns of coupling between theta and gamma oscillations in perisomatic and dendritic hippocampal CA1 local field potentials of the KO. Perisomatic CA1 theta-gamma phase-amplitude coupling (PAC) decreases with familiarity in both the WT and KO, but activating an invisible shock zone, subsequently changing its location, or turning it off, changes the pattern of oscillatory events in the LFPs recorded along the somato-dendritic axis of CA1. The cognition-dependent changes of this pattern of neural activity are relatively constrained in WT mice compared to KO mice, which exhibit abnormally weak changes during the cognitive challenge caused by changing the location of the shock zone and exaggerated patterns of change when the shock zone is turned off. Such pathophysiology might explain how dysregulated translation leads to intellectual disability in FXS. These findings demonstrate major functional abnormalities after the loss of FMRP in the dynamics of neural oscillations and that these impairments would be difficult to detect by steady-state measurements with the subject at rest or in steady conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Western Dietary Pattern Increases Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Fabiani, Roberto; Minelli, Liliana; Bertarelli, Gaia; Bacci, Silvia

2016-01-01

Dietary patterns were recently applied to examine the relationship between eating habits and prostate cancer (PC) risk. While the associations between PC risk with the glycemic index and Mediterranean score have been reviewed, no meta-analysis is currently available on dietary patterns defined by “a posteriori” methods. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science) to identify studies reporting the relationship between dietary patterns and PC risk. Relevant dietary patterns were selected and the risks estimated were calculated by a random-effect model. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs), for a first-percentile increase in dietary pattern score, were combined by a dose-response meta-analysis. Twelve observational studies were included in the meta-analysis which identified a “Healthy pattern” and a “Western pattern”. The Healthy pattern was not related to PC risk (OR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–1.04) while the Western pattern significantly increased it (OR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.08–1.65). In addition, the “Carbohydrate pattern”, which was analyzed in four articles, was positively associated with a higher PC risk (OR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.35–2.00). A significant linear trend between the Western (p = 0.011) pattern, the Carbohydrate (p = 0.005) pattern, and the increment of PC risk was observed. The small number of studies included in the meta-analysis suggests that further investigation is necessary to support these findings. PMID:27754328

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Adaptive Behaviour and Cognitive Skills: Stability and Change from 7 Months to 7 Years in Siblings at High Familial Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorder.

PubMed

Salomone, Erica; Shephard, Elizabeth; Milosavljevic, Bosiljka; Johnson, Mark H; Charman, Tony

2018-04-03

Cognitive and adaptive behaviour abilities early in life provide important clinical prognostic information. We examined stability of such skills in children at high familial risk for ASD who either met diagnostic criteria for ASD at age 7 years (HR-ASD, n = 15) or did not (HR-non-ASD, n = 24) and low-risk control children (LR, n = 37), prospectively studied from infancy. For both HR groups, cognitive skills were consistently lower across time than those of LR children. HR-ASD children showed increasing difficulties in adaptive behaviour over time compared to LR children, while the HR-non-ASD children showed no such difficulties. This pattern of change may inform our understanding of developmental profiles of HR siblings beyond core ASD symptoms.

Mortality of aircraft maintenance workers exposed to trichloroethylene and other hydrocarbons and chemicals: extended follow up

PubMed Central

Radican, Larry; Blair, Aaron; Stewart, Patricia; Wartenberg, Daniel

2009-01-01

Objective To extend follow-up of 14,455 workers from 1990 to 2000, and evaluate mortality risk from exposure to trichloroethylene (TCE) and other chemicals. Methods Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate relative risk for exposed vs. unexposed workers based on previously developed exposure surrogates. Results Among TCE exposed workers, there was no statistically significant increased risk of all-cause mortality (RR=1.04) or death from all cancers (RR=1.03). Exposure-response gradients for TCE were relatively flat and did not materially change since 1990. Statistically significant excesses were found for several chemical exposure subgroups and causes, and were generally consistent with the previous follow up. Conclusions Patterns of mortality have not changed substantially since 1990. While positive associations with several cancers were observed, and are consistent with the published literature, interpretation is limited due to the small numbers of events for specific exposures. PMID:19001957

Defending against disasters: global public health emergencies and opportunities for collaboration and action.

PubMed

Iain, Blair

2010-07-01

The World Health Organization project on the Global Burden of Disease quantifies the main causes of premature death and disability. Changing patterns of physical activity, diet, and alcohol and tobacco consumption are producing a growing burden of noncommunicable disease in low-and middle-income countries. This article focuses on a different group of health risks: major health emergencies that do not respect national borders and have an impact on health and the determinants of health such as housing, access to food and water, and other life essentials. Health emergencies, including accidents and natural events, are described, and data on disasters in the Middle East are presented. Disaster response is contrasted with disaster prevention, and disaster risk reduction is discussed in the context of vulnerability, climate change, and sustainable development. Finally, the international policy context of disaster risk reduction is discussed along with opportunities for multidisciplinary and multiinstitutional collaboration and research.

Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

2015-11-01

This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

PubMed

Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

2015-11-01

This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67% more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10% forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

Crash risk analysis during fog conditions using real-time traffic data.

PubMed

Wu, Yina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

2018-05-01

This research investigates the changes of traffic characteristics and crash risks during fog conditions. Using real-time traffic flow and weather data at two regions in Florida, the traffic patterns at the fog duration were compared to the traffic patterns at the clear duration. It was found that the average 5-min speed and the average 5-min volume were prone to decreasing during fog. Based on previous studies, a "Crash Risk Increase Indicator (CRII)" was proposed to explore the differences of crash risk between fog and clear conditions. A binary logistic regression model was applied to link the increase of crash risks with traffic flow characteristics. The results suggested that the proposed indicator worked well in evaluating the increase of crash risk under fog condition. It was indicated that the crash risk was prone to increase at ramp vicinities in fog conditions. Also, the average 5-min volume during fog and the lane position are important factors for crash risk increase. The differences between the regions were also explored in this study. The results indicated that the locations with heavier traffic or locations at the lanes that were closest to the median in Region 2 were more likely to observe an increase in crash risks in fog conditions. It is expected that the proposed indicator can help identify the dangerous traffic status under fog conditions and then proper ITS technologies can be implemented to enhance traffic safety when the visibility declines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Reducing disaster risk in rural Arctic communities through effective communication strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kontar, Y. Y.

2015-12-01

Communication is the process of exchanging and relaying vital information that has bearing on the effectiveness of all phases of emergency management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery, making it one of the most important activities in disasters. Lack of communication between emergency managers, policy makers, and communities at risk may result in an inability to accurately identify disaster risk, and failure to determine priorities during a hazard event. Specific goals of communication change during the four phases of emergency management. Consequently, the communication strategy changes as well. Communication strategy also depends on a variety of attitudinal and motivational characteristics of the population at risk, as well as socioeconomic, cultural, and geographical features of the disaster-prone region. In May 2013, insufficient communication patterns between federal, state, tribal agencies, and affected communities significantly contributed to delays in the flood response and recovery in several rural villages along the Yukon River in central Alaska. This case study finds that long term dialogue is critical for managing disaster risk and increasing disaster resilience in rural Northern communities. It introduces new ideas and highlights best practices in disaster communication.

Measuring transplant center performance: The goals are not controversial but the methods and consequences can be.

PubMed

Jay, Colleen; Schold, Jesse D

2017-03-01

Risks of regulatory scrutiny has generated widespread concern about increasingly risk averse transplant center behaviors regarding both donor and candidate acceptance patterns. To address potential unintended consequences threatening access to care, we discuss recent changes in regulatory metrics and potential improvements in quality oversight of transplant centers. Despite many recent changes to one-year patient and graft survival regulatory criteria, the capacity to accurately identify true underperforming centers and avoiding false positive flagging remains an area of great concern. Numerous studies have demonstrated restrictions in transplant volume and access following transplant center flagging. Current regulatory criteria are limited in their capacity to accurately identify poorly performing centers and potentially encourage risk-averse behavior by transplant centers. Efforts to address these concerns should focus on (1) improving risk-adjustment models with better data which captures the acuity of candidate and donor risk, (2) reconsidering primary outcomes measured to assess comprehensive transplant center performance, (3) improving education to address rational or perceived disincentives, and (4) using data more effectively to share best practices.

Mapping spatial patterns of people's risk perception of landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kofler, Christian; Pedoth, Lydia; Elzbieta Stawinoga, Agnieszka; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

2016-04-01

The resilience of communities against natural hazards is largely influenced by how the individuals perceive risk. A good understanding of people's risk perception, awareness and hazard knowledge is crucial for developing and improving risk management and communication strategies between authorities and the affected population. A lot of research has been done in investigating the social aspects of risks to natural hazards by means of interviews or questionnaires. However, there is still a lack of research in the investigation of the influence of the spatial distance to a hazard event on peoples risk perception. While the spatial dimension of a natural hazard event is always assessed in works with a natural science approach, it is often neglected in works on social aspects of natural hazards. In the present study, we aimed to overcome these gaps by combining methods from different disciplines and assessing and mapping the spatial pattern of risk perception through multivariate statistical approaches based on empirical data from questionnaires. We will present results from a case study carried out in Badia, located in the Province of South Tyrol- Italy, where in December 2012 a landslide destroyed four residential buildings and led to the evacuation of 36 people. By means of questionnaires distributed to all adults living in the case study area we assessed people's risk perception and asked respondents to allocate their place of residence on a map of the case study area subdivided in 7 zones. Based on the data of the questionnaire results we developed a risk perception factor in order to express various assessed aspects linked to risk perception with one metric. We analyzed and mapped this factor according to the different zones reflecting the spatial distance to the event. Furthermore, a cluster analysis identified various risk behavior profiles within the population. We also investigated the spatial patterns of these risk profiles. We revealed that the residential zone in the immediate proximity to the landslide event showed significantly different results than all other zones. Though we have been able to observe spatial patterns of our developed metrics that changed significantly with geographic distance, our results led to the assumption that risk perception cannot be expressed in units of length. The appropriate spatial unit rather seems to be "immediate proximity" to the event. The results of our study can support response forces and authorities in planning and adopting different communication and management strategies tailored to different groups of affected persons.

Seasonal and diurnal changes in starch content and sugar profiles of bermudagrass in the Piedmont region of the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Seasonal and diurnal patterns of sugar accumulation in bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon) pastures were monitored in order to evaluate risk factors for pasture-associated laminitis of ponies and horses. Bermudagrass was collected in the morning and afternoon on a weekly basis, from mid-July until late...

Design and analysis for thematic map accuracy assessment: Fundamental principles

Treesearch

Stephen V. Stehman; Raymond L. Czaplewski

1998-01-01

Land-cover maps are used in numerous natural resource applications to describe the spatial distribution and pattern of land-cover, to estimate areal extent of various cover classes, or as input into habitat suitability models, land-cover change analyses, hydrological models, and risk analyses. Accuracy assessment quantifies data quality so that map users may evaluate...

The Global Epidemiologic Transition: Noncommunicable Diseases and Emerging Health Risk of Allergic Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atiim, George A.; Elliott, Susan J.

2016-01-01

Globally, there has been a shift in the causes of illness and death from infectious diseases to noncommunicable diseases. This changing pattern has been attributed to the effects of an (ongoing) epidemiologic transition. Although researchers have applied epidemiologic transition theory to questions of global health, there have been relatively few…

The role of primary care providers in managing falls.

PubMed

Demons, Jamehl L; Duncan, Pamela W

2014-01-01

Falls threaten the ability of older adults to live independently in the community. Fortunately, national and state organizations have created tools that allow primary care providers to easily assess fall risk, and small changes in practice patterns can provide patients with the resources necessary to prevent falls, thus helping to reverse a costly, deadly epidemic.

Anthropogenic disturbance and the risk of flea-borne disease transmission

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Paul Beier

2010-01-01

Anthropogenic disturbance may lead to the spread of vector-borne diseases through effects on pathogens, vectors, and hosts. Identifying the type and extent of vector response to habitat change will enable better and more accurate management strategies for anthropogenic disease spread. We compiled and analyzed data from published empirical studies to test for patterns...

Scaffolding Mathematics Remediation for Academically At-Risk Students Following Developmental Education Reform in Florida

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rebecca, Brower L.; Woods, Chenoa S.; Bertrand Jones, Tamara; Park, Toby J.; Hu, Shouping; Tandberg, David A.; Nix, Amanda; Rhaming, Sophia G.; Martindale, Sandra K.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this qualitative study is to understand how educational scaffolding may explain changing patterns of student success in mathematics in the era of developmental education (DE or remediation) reform in Florida College System (FCS) institutions. Specifically, we apply the concept of scaffolding to underprepared FCS students who are at…

Scaffolding Mathematics Remediation for Academically At-Risk Students Following Developmental Education Reform in Florida

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brower, Rebecca L.; Woods, Chenoa S.; Jones, Tamara Bertrand; Park, Toby J.; Hu, Shouping; Tandberg, David A.; Nix, Amanda N.; Rahming, Sophia G.; Martindale, Sandra K.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this qualitative study is to understand how educational scaffolding may explain changing patterns of student success in mathematics in the era of developmental education (DE or remediation) reform in Florida College System (FCS) institutions. Specifically, we apply the concept of scaffolding to underprepared FCS students who are at…

Changing risk factors for fluorosis among South Australian children.

PubMed

Spencer, A John; Do, Loc G

2008-06-01

Research in the last decade has shown changing exposure patterns to discretionary fluorides and declining prevalence of fluorosis among South Australian children, raising the question of how risk factors for fluorosis have changed. To examine and compare risk factors for fluorosis among representative samples of South Australian children in 1992/1993 and 2002/2003. Similar sampling strategies and data collection methods were employed in the Child Fluoride Study (CFS) Marks 1 (1992/1993) and 2 (2002/2003). Participants in each CFS round were examined for fluorosis using the Thylstrup and Fejerskov (TF) Index. Exposure history was collected for fluoride in water, toothpaste, fluoride supplements and infant formula, allowing for a fluorosis risk assessment analysis. Data were re-weighted to represent the child population at each time. Changes in prevalence of fluorosis, defined as having a TF score of 1+ on maxillary central incisors, fluoride exposure and risk factors between the two rounds were evaluated. A total of 375 and 677 children participated in the 1992/1993 and 2002/2003 rounds respectively. Prevalence of fluorosis declined significantly from 45.3% to 25.9%. Reduced use of fluoride supplements and increased use of 400-550-ppm children F toothpaste were the most substantial fluoride exposure changes. Early toothpaste use, residence in fluoridated areas and fluoride supplement use were the risk factors in 1992/1993. Early toothpaste use and fluoride supplement use were not risk factors, leaving fluoridated water as the only risk factor among the common variables in 2002/2003. In an analysis stratified by the type of fluoridated toothpaste in 2002/2003, the large amount of toothpaste used was a risk factor in those who used 1000-ppm fluoridated toothpaste, and eating/licking toothpaste when toothpaste use started was a risk factor among children who used either 1000-ppm or 400-550-ppm fluoridated toothpaste. Introduction of the 400-550-ppm F toothpaste and use of smaller amount of toothpaste restricted risk associated with early toothpaste use. Less use and possibly a stricter fluoride supplements regimen also restricted fluorosis risk. Periodic monitoring of risk of fluorosis is required to adjust guidelines for fluoride use in caries prevention.

Streamflow droughts in major watershed regions of the conterminous U.S.: Understanding evolution of historic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournasiri Poshtiri, M.; Pal, I.

2015-12-01

Climate non-stationarity affects regional hydrological extremes. This research looks into historic patterns of streamflow drought indicators and their evolution for major watershed regions in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The results indicate general linear and non-linear drying trends, particularly in the last four decades, as opposed to wetting trends reported in previous studies. Regional differences in the trends are notable, and echo the local climatic changes documented in the recent National Climate Assessment (NCA). A reversal of linear trends is seen for some northern regions after 1980s. Patterns in return periods and corresponding return values of the indicators are also examined, which suggests changing risk conditions that are important for water-resources decision-making. Persistent or flash drought conditions in a river can lead to chronic or short-term water scarcity—a main driver of societal and cross-boundary conflicts. Thus, this research identifies "hotspot" locations where suitable adaptive management measures are most needed.

Does the Mediterranean diet predict longevity in the elderly? A Swedish perspective.

PubMed

Tognon, Gianluca; Rothenberg, Elisabet; Eiben, Gabriele; Sundh, Valter; Winkvist, Anna; Lissner, Lauren

2011-09-01

Dietary pattern analysis represents a useful improvement in the investigation of diet and health relationships. Particularly, the Mediterranean diet pattern has been associated with reduced mortality risk in several studies involving both younger and elderly population groups. In this research, relationships between dietary macronutrient composition, as well as the Mediterranean diet, and total mortality were assessed in 1,037 seventy-year-old subjects (540 females) information. Diet macronutrient composition was not associated with mortality, while a refined version of the modified Mediterranean diet index showed a significant inverse association (HR=0.93, 95% CI: 0.89; 0.98). As expected, inactive subjects, smokers and those with a higher waist circumference had a higher mortality, while a reduced risk characterized married and more educated people. Sensitivity analyses (which confirmed our results) consisted of: exclusion of one food group at a time in the Mediterranean diet index, exclusion of early deaths, censoring at fixed follow-up time, adjusting for activities of daily living and main cardiovascular risk factors including weight/waist circumference changes at follow up. In conclusion, we can reasonably state that a higher adherence to a Mediterranean diet pattern, especially by consuming wholegrain cereals, foods rich in polyunsaturated fatty acids, and a limited amount of alcohol, predicts increased longevity in the elderly.

Dietary patterns predict changes in two-hour post-oral glucose tolerance test plasma glucose concentrations in middle-aged adults.

PubMed

Lau, Cathrine; Toft, Ulla; Tetens, Inge; Carstensen, Bendix; Jørgensen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

2009-03-01

We examined whether the adherence to major dietary patterns at baseline of 5824 nondiabetic Danes (30-60 y) enrolled in the nonpharmacological Inter99 intervention predicted changes in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and postchallenge 2-h plasma glucose (2h-PG) concentrations during a 5 y period and whether a potential association was dependent on baseline glucose tolerance status. Through principal component analysis, a score for a traditional dietary pattern (characterized by higher intakes of high-fat sandwich spreads, red meat, potatoes, butter and lard, low-fat fish, sandwich meat, and sauces) and a score for a modern dietary pattern (characterized by higher intakes of vegetables, fruit, vegetable oil/vinegar dressing, poultry, pasta, rice, and cereals) were estimated for each person at baseline. Random effect models adjusting for relevant confounders were used to estimate changes in repetitive measures of FPG and 2h-PG. A higher modern score (of 1 SD) predicted an annual decrease in 2h-PG of 0.015 mmol/L (P < 0.01) regardless of glucose tolerance status. For individuals with isolated impaired glucose tolerance, a higher traditional score (of 1 SD) predicted an annual increase in 2h-PG of 0.083 mmol/L (P < 0.0001). In conclusion, glucose tolerance status did not, in general, affect the predictive effect of the dietary patterns. The study suggests that the risk of worsening 2h-PG concentrations may be smaller for individuals with a high modern dietary pattern score characterized by high intakes of vegetables, fruit, vegetable oil/vinegar dressing, poultry, pasta, rice, and cereals.

Sleep patterns as predictors for disability pension due to low back diagnoses: a 23-year longitudinal study of Finnish twins.

PubMed

Ropponen, Annina; Silventoinen, Karri; Hublin, Christer; Svedberg, Pia; Koskenvuo, Markku; Kaprio, Jaakko

2013-06-01

Impaired sleep patterns are known to be associated with many chronic conditions and ultimately they may lead to permanent work incapacity. Less is known about the associations between sleep patterns and cause-specific disability pensions, such as low back diagnoses, or whether familial factors (genetics and family environment) can affect the associations. The objective of this study was to investigate sleep patterns as predictors of disability pension due to low back diagnoses with a 23-year follow-up. A prospective cohort study with comprehensive mailed questionnaires about sleep patterns, e.g., quality and length of sleep in 1975 and 1981. Follow-up from the national disability pension register data until 2004. Not applicable. There were 18,979 individuals (7,722 complete twin pairs) born before 1958. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Disability pension due to low back diagnoses had been granted to 467 individuals during the follow-up. Sleeping moderately well (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.02, 1.53), or fairly poorly/poorly (HR 2.05; 95% CI 1.53, 2.73) at baseline predicted a significantly higher risk for disability pension. Stable patterns of sleeping either fairly well (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.01, 1.64), or stably fairly poorly/poorly (HR 2.29; 95% CI 1.49, 3.52) between 1975 and 1981 were associated with a higher risk as compared to a stable pattern of sleeping well. Furthermore, a decrease in quality of sleep from 1975 to 1981 was associated (HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.03, 1.76) with an increased risk of disability pension. Sleep quality and changes in sleep quality appear to be early predictors for disability pension due to low back diagnoses independently from other confounding factors.

Longitudinal patterns and predictors of multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents: The TRAILS study.

PubMed

de Winter, Andrea F; Visser, Leenke; Verhulst, Frank C; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

2016-03-01

Most studies on multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents have cross-sectionally studied a limited number of health behaviors or determinants. To examine the prevalence, longitudinal patterns and predictors of individual and multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents. Eight health risk behaviors (no regular consumption of fruit, vegetables or breakfast, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol use and cannabis use) were assessed in a prospective population study (second and third wave). Participants were assessed in three waves between ages 10 and 17 (2001-2008; n=2230). Multiple linear regression was used to assess the influence of gender, self-control, parental health risk behaviors, parental monitoring and socioeconomic factors on the number of health risk behaviors adjusted for preceding multiple health risk behaviors (analysis: 2013-2014). Rates of >5 health risk behaviors were high: 3.6% at age 13.5 and 10.2% at age 16. Smoking at age 13.5 was frequently associated with health risk behaviors at age 16. No regular consumption of fruit, vegetables and breakfast, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity and smoking predicted the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors at follow-up. Significant predictors of the development of multiple health risk behaviors were adolescents' levels of self-control, socioeconomic status and maternal smoking. Multiple health risk behaviors are common among adolescents. Individual and social factors predict changes in multiple health risk behaviors, showing that prevention targeting multiple risk behaviors is needed. Special attention should be paid to adolescents with low self-control and families with low socioeconomic status or a mother who smokes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changing Susceptibility to Non-Optimum Temperatures in Japan, 1972-2012: The Role of Climate, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Factors.

PubMed

Chung, Yeonseung; Yang, Daewon; Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Fook Sheng Ng, Chris; Kim, Yoonhee; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro

2018-05-02

Previous studies have shown that population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures has changed over time, but little is known about the related time-varying factors that underlie the changes. Our objective was to investigate the changing population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in 47 prefectures of Japan over four decades from 1972 to 2012, addressing three aspects: minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and heat- and cold-related mortality risks. In addition, we aimed to examine how these aspects of susceptibility were associated with climate, demographic, and socioeconomic variables. We first used a two-stage time-series design with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the time-varying MMT, heat- and cold-related mortality risks. We then applied linear mixed effects models to investigate the association between each of the three time-varying aspects of susceptibility and various time-varying factors. MMT increased from 23.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 23, 23.6] to 28.7 (27.0, 29.7) °C. Heat-related mortality risk [relative risk (RR) for the 99th percentile of temperature vs. the MMT] decreased from 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) to 1.01 (0.98, 1.04). Cold-related mortality risk (RR for the first percentile vs. the MMT) generally decreased from 1.48 (1.41, 1.54) to 1.35 (1.32, 1.40), with the exception of a few eastern prefectures that showed increased risk. The changing patterns in all three aspects differed by region, sex, and causes of death. Higher mean temperature was associated ( p <0.01) with lower heat risk, whereas higher humidity was associated with higher cold risk. A higher percentage of elderly people was associated with a higher cold risk, whereas higher economic strength of the prefecture was related to lower cold risk. Population susceptibility to heat has decreased over the last four decades in Japan. Susceptibility to cold has decreased overall except for several eastern prefectures where it has either increased or remained unchanged. Certain climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors explored in the current study might underlie this changing susceptibility. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2546.

West Nile virus in Canada: ever-changing, but here to stay.

PubMed

Zheng, H; Drebot, M A; Coulthart, M B

2014-05-15

The incidence of West Nile virus (WNv) has waxed and waned in Canada over the past 12 years, but it is unlikely to disappear. Climate change models, which suggest warming temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation, predict an expansion of geographic range for WNv in some regions of Canada, such as the Prairie provinces. Such projected changes in WNv distribution might also be accompanied by genetic changes in the virus and/or the range of bird and insect host species it infects. To address this risk, emphasis should be placed on preventing exposure to infected mosquitoes, conducting high-quality surveillance of WNv and WNv disease, controlling mosquito vectors, and promoting public and professional education.

Assessing introduction risk using species’ rank-abundance distributions

PubMed Central

Chan, Farrah T.; Bradie, Johanna; Briski, Elizabeta; Bailey, Sarah A.; Simard, Nathalie; MacIsaac, Hugh J.

2015-01-01

Mixed-species assemblages are often unintentionally introduced into new ecosystems. Analysing how assemblage structure varies during transport may provide insights into how introduction risk changes before propagules are released. Characterization of introduction risk is typically based on assessments of colonization pressure (CP, the number of species transported) and total propagule pressure (total PP, the total abundance of propagules released) associated with an invasion vector. Generally, invasion potential following introduction increases with greater CP or total PP. Here, we extend these assessments using rank-abundance distributions to examine how CP : total PP relationships change temporally in ballast water of ocean-going ships. Rank-abundance distributions and CP : total PP patterns varied widely between trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific voyages, with the latter appearing to pose a much lower risk than the former. Responses also differed by taxonomic group, with invertebrates experiencing losses mainly in total PP, while diatoms and dinoflagellates sustained losses mainly in CP. In certain cases, open-ocean ballast water exchange appeared to increase introduction risk by uptake of new species or supplementation of existing ones. Our study demonstrates that rank-abundance distributions provide new insights into the utility of CP and PP in characterizing introduction risk. PMID:25473007

Epidemiology of cancer in ethnic groups.

PubMed Central

Muir, C. S.

1996-01-01

Substantial differences in the level and patterns of cancer have long been known to exist. Thus, breast cancer mortality in England & Wales in 1908-1912 was ten times higher than in Japan. Today the risk differential is six-fold. The major geographical differences in cancer risk throughout the world are mentioned and the significance of study of changes in cancer risk in migrant populations is emphasised. Thus, while cancer of the large bowel is still relatively uncommon in Japan, the incidence in US Japanese is currently higher than in both US Whites and Blacks. As the Japanese have not changed their genes, it is likely that the higher levels of risk in the US are due to the environment. Within Singapore there are substantial differences in the risk of cancers of the nasopharynx and oesophagus between the various Chinese dialect groups. The information available on ethnic differences in cancer risk in the UK are reviewed. Current analyses are flawed by failure to distinguish between ethnic groups coming from the same continent. The collection of data on ethnic group at the 1991 census and the recently introduced requirement that this also be collected in hospital records will permit direct calculation of incidence and replace anecdote by fact. PMID:8782793

Short-term changes in running mechanics and foot strike pattern after introduction to minimalistic footwear.

PubMed

Willson, John D; Bjorhus, Jordan S; Williams, D S Blaise; Butler, Robert J; Porcari, John P; Kernozek, Thomas W

2014-01-01

Minimalistic footwear has garnered widespread interest in the running community, based largely on the premise that the footwear may reduce certain running-related injury risk factors through adaptations in running mechanics and foot strike pattern. To examine short-term adaptations in running mechanics among runners who typically run in conventional cushioned heel running shoes as they transition to minimalistic footwear. A 2-week, prospective, observational study. A movement science laboratory. Nineteen female runners with a rear foot strike (RFS) pattern who usually train in conventional running shoes. The participants trained for 20 minutes, 3 times per week for 2 weeks by using minimalistic footwear. Three-dimensional lower extremity running mechanics were analyzed before and after this 2-week period. Hip, knee, and ankle joint kinematics at initial contact; step length; stance time; peak ankle joint moment and joint work; impact peak; vertical ground reaction force loading rate; and foot strike pattern preference were evaluated before and after the intervention. The knee flexion angle at initial contact increased 3.8° (P < .01), but the ankle and hip flexion angles at initial contact did not change after training. No changes in ankle joint kinetics or running temporospatial parameters were observed. The majority of participants (71%), before the intervention, demonstrated an RFS pattern while running in minimalistic footwear. The proportion of runners with an RFS pattern did not decrease after 2 weeks (P = .25). Those runners who chose an RFS pattern in minimalistic shoes experienced a vertical loading rate that was 3 times greater than those who chose to run with a non-RFS pattern. Few systematic changes in running mechanics were observed among participants after 2 weeks of training in minimalistic footwear. The majority of the participants continued to use an RFS pattern after training in minimalistic footwear, and these participants experienced higher vertical loading rates. Continued exposure to these greater loading rates may have detrimental effects over time. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accounting for rate instability and spatial patterns in the boundary analysis of cancer mortality maps

PubMed Central

Goovaerts, Pierre

2006-01-01

Boundary analysis of cancer maps may highlight areas where causative exposures change through geographic space, the presence of local populations with distinct cancer incidences, or the impact of different cancer control methods. Too often, such analysis ignores the spatial pattern of incidence or mortality rates and overlooks the fact that rates computed from sparsely populated geographic entities can be very unreliable. This paper proposes a new methodology that accounts for the uncertainty and spatial correlation of rate data in the detection of significant edges between adjacent entities or polygons. Poisson kriging is first used to estimate the risk value and the associated standard error within each polygon, accounting for the population size and the risk semivariogram computed from raw rates. The boundary statistic is then defined as half the absolute difference between kriged risks. Its reference distribution, under the null hypothesis of no boundary, is derived through the generation of multiple realizations of the spatial distribution of cancer risk values. This paper presents three types of neutral models generated using methods of increasing complexity: the common random shuffle of estimated risk values, a spatial re-ordering of these risks, or p-field simulation that accounts for the population size within each polygon. The approach is illustrated using age-adjusted pancreatic cancer mortality rates for white females in 295 US counties of the Northeast (1970–1994). Simulation studies demonstrate that Poisson kriging yields more accurate estimates of the cancer risk and how its value changes between polygons (i.e. boundary statistic), relatively to the use of raw rates or local empirical Bayes smoother. When used in conjunction with spatial neutral models generated by p-field simulation, the boundary analysis based on Poisson kriging estimates minimizes the proportion of type I errors (i.e. edges wrongly declared significant) while the frequency of these errors is predicted well by the p-value of the statistical test. PMID:19023455

A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

2017-12-01

In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability pattern of irrigation systems and networks. The implemented assessment singled out future perspectives of water scarcity risk levels for irrigated agriculture by the administrative extent where individual bodies are in charge of the coordination of public and private irrigation activities (i.e. Reclamation Consortia). Based on the outcomes of the proposed methodology, tailored and knowledge-based adaptation strategies and related actions can be developed, to reduce the risk at both agronomic level (i.e. preferring crops with low vulnerability score, as olive groves) and at structural level (i.e. differentiating the water stocks and supplies and reducing losses and inefficiencies).

Insulin Resistance of Puberty.

PubMed

Kelsey, Megan M; Zeitler, Philip S

2016-07-01

Puberty is a time of considerable metabolic and hormonal change. Notably, puberty is associated with a marked decrease in insulin sensitivity, on par with that seen during pregnancy. In otherwise healthy youth, there is a nadir in insulin sensitivity in mid-puberty, and then it recovers at puberty completion. However, there is evidence that insulin resistance (IR) does not resolve in youth who are obese going into puberty and may result in increased cardiometabolic risk. Little is known about the underlying pathophysiology of IR in puberty, and how it might contribute to increased disease risk (e.g., type 2 diabetes). In this review, we have outlined what is known about the IR in puberty in terms of pattern, potential underlying mechanisms and other mediating factors. We also outline other potentially related metabolic changes that occur during puberty, and effects of underlying insulin resistant states (e.g., obesity) on pubertal changes in insulin sensitivity.

Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark.

PubMed

Zhou, Q; Halsnæs, K; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities.

Epidemiology of and Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes in Egypt.

PubMed

Hegazi, Refaat; El-Gamal, Mohamed; Abdel-Hady, Nagy; Hamdy, Osama

2015-01-01

Diabetes is a fast-growing health problem in Egypt with a significant impact on morbidity, mortality, and health care resources. Currently, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Egypt is around 15.6% of all adults aged 20 to 79. To describe the epidemiology, principal causes, associated risk factors, cultural aspects, and challenges that may contribute to the rapid rise in T2D in Egypt. Review of papers in PubMed and relevant gray literature. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) has identified Egypt as the ninth leading country in the world for the number of patients with T2D. The prevalence of T2D in Egypt was almost tripled over the last 2 decades. This sharp rise could be attributed to either an increased pattern of the traditional risk factors for T2D such as obesity and physical inactivity and change in eating pattern or other risk factors unique to Egypt. These include increased exposure to environmental risk factors like pesticides and increased prevalence of chronic hepatitis C. Prevention, early identification, and effective intervention are integral components of effective T2D care in Egypt. These strategies may reduce the expanding economic burden associated with T2D care. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Matriarchal model for cardiovascular prevention.

PubMed

Wild, R A; Taylor, E L; Knehans, A; Cleaver, V

1994-02-01

Family patterns of cardiovascular risk behavior are well documented. Significant correlation exists between spouse-spouse, parent-child, and sibling-sibling for cholesterol, high- and low-density lipoprotein, diet, physical activity, and smoking. Family/environmental influences are important in how/if risk and/or preventive behavior is learned. The family matriarch commonly functions as gatekeeper, controlling eating behavior, access to health care, and other patterns. She often acts as menu planner, shopper, and preparer of meals for all family members. She provides information and verbal reinforcement about food and is a powerful model concerning dietary practices. In fact, the mother, as head of household in most single-parent families, may be the only adult model for many children. Because relevance and credibility are the most important characteristics of a behavioral model, parents (especially mothers) are strong models for observational learning by children. Risk factor information and risk reduction activities adopted by the matriarch can be generalized to the entire family if she learns the skills to act as a change agent. Initiation of this process of education and training the matriarch lies with primary care providers for women (Ob-Gyns see most women). By teaching risk reduction to the matriarch as a component of primary care, physician interaction can have a rippling effect.

Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

2011-12-01

According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans with respect to human health.

Healthy dietary patterns decrease the risk of colorectal cancer in the Mecca Region, Saudi Arabia: a case-control study.

PubMed

Azzeh, Firas S; Alshammari, Eyad M; Alazzeh, Awfa Y; Jazar, Abdelelah S; Dabbour, Ibrahim R; El-Taani, Hani A; Obeidat, Ahmed A; Kattan, Fayrooz A; Tashtoush, Sufyan H

2017-06-29

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the first most common cancer in males and the third most common cancer in females in Saudi Arabia. Dietary habits are strongly associated with the inhibition or proliferation of malignancy. Therefore, this study is aiming to investigate the risks and protective benefits of dietary factors affecting CRC in the Mecca region of Saudi Arabia. A case-control study was conducted from June 2014 to March 2015. One hundred thirty-seven patients with colon and/or rectal cancer were recruited in the case group, while 164 healthy participants were recruited in the control group. A questionnaire was completed with the help of trained dietitians to study the effects of several dietary patterns on the risk of CRC. Dairy product intake of 1-5 servings/day, legume intake of 3-5 servings/week, leafy vegetables intake of 1-5 servings/week, olive oil intake of 1-5 servings/week, black tea intake of three or more cups/day, and coffee intake of one or more cups/day was found to decrease the risk of CRC in participants. This study highlights the importance of changing dietary habits to decrease CRC incidence in the Mecca region.

Point process methods in epidemiology: application to the analysis of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome mortality in urban areas.

PubMed

Quesada, Jose Antonio; Melchor, Inmaculada; Nolasco, Andreu

2017-05-26

The analysis of spatio-temporal patterns of disease or death in urban areas has been developed mainly from the ecological studies approach. These designs may have some limitations like the ecological fallacy and instability with few cases. The objective of this study was to apply the point process methodology, as a complement to that of aggregated data, to study HIV/AIDS mortality in men in the city of Alicante (Spain). A case-control study in residents in the city during the period 2004-2011 was designed. Cases were men who died from HIV/AIDS and controls represented the general population, matched by age to cases. The risk surfaces of death over the city were estimated using the log-risk function of intensities, and we contrasted their temporal variations over the two periods. High risk significant areas of death by HIV/AIDS, which coincide with the most deprived areas in the city, were detected. Significant spatial change of the areas at risk between the periods studied was not detected. The point process methodology is a useful tool to analyse the patterns of death by HIV/AIDS in urban areas.

Dietary patterns and risk of colorectal adenoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Godos, J; Bella, F; Torrisi, A; Sciacca, S; Galvano, F; Grosso, G

2016-12-01

Current evidence suggests that dietary patterns may play an important role in colorectal cancer risk. The present study aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies exploring the association between dietary patterns and colorectal adenomas (a precancerous condition). Pubmed and EMBASE electronic databases were systematically searched to retrieve eligible studies. Only studies exploring the risk or association with colorectal adenomas for the highest versus lowest category of exposure to a posteriori dietary patterns were included in the quantitative analysis. Random-effects models were applied to calculate relative risks (RRs) of colorectal adenomas for high adherence to healthy or unhealthy dietary patterns. Statistical heterogeneity and publication bias were explored. Twelve studies were reviewed. Three studies explored a priori dietary patterns using scores identifying adherence to the Mediterranean, Paleolithic and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet and reported an association with decreased colorectal adenoma risk. Two studies tested the association with colorectal adenomas between a posteriori dietary patterns showing lower odds of disease related to plant-based compared to meat-based dietary patterns. Seven studies identified 23 a posteriori dietary patterns and the analysis revealed that higher adherence to healthy and unhealthy dietary patterns was significantly associated risk of colorectal adenomas (RR = 0.81, 95% confidence interval = 0.71, 0.94 and RR = 1.24, 95% confidence interval = 1.13, 1.35, respectively) with no evidence of heterogeneity or publication bias. The results of this systematic review and meta-analysis indicate that dietary patterns may be associated with the risk of colorectal adenomas. © 2016 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Cardiovascular diseases and risk factors among Chinese immigrants.

PubMed

Gong, Zhizhong; Zhao, Dong

2016-04-01

The aim of this study is to identify the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and major CVD risk factors, including diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, obesity and smoking among Chinese immigrants by a systematic review of studies from various countries. PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases were searched for studies of the prevalence of major CVDs and risk factors, and of CVD mortality among Chinese immigrants. The search identified 386 papers, 16 of which met the inclusion criteria for this review. In mainland China, there is a pattern of high stroke prevalence but low coronary heart disease (CHD) prevalence. Among Chinese immigrants, there is a much lower prevalence and mortality of stroke, but a higher prevalence and mortality of CHD, even though these are lower than the rates in immigrants of other ethnicities in the host country. The prevalence of CVD risk factors is also markedly different in immigrants. Compared with mainland Chinese, Chinese immigrants have a higher prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, higher serum cholesterol, poorer dietary patterns, and higher prevalence of obesity and smoking. Thus, the epidemiological pattern of CVD among Chinese immigrants changes compared with resident mainland Chinese. The less healthy environmental factor after immigration may be a major trigger in the adverse CVD status of Chinese immigrants. It is important for policy-makers to pay more attention to specific minority immigrant groups, and to implement more effective preventive measures to improve the health of immigrant populations.

Fine-resolution conservation planning with limited climate-change information.

PubMed

Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L; Ando, Amy W; Guntenspergen, Glenn R

2017-04-01

Climate-change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation-planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk-diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate-change scenarios for carrying out fine-resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate-change information and full climate-change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate-change forecasts such that the best possible risk-return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate-change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Temporal Trends and the Impact of Race, Insurance, and Socioeconomic Status in the Management of Localized Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Gray, Phillip J; Lin, Chun Chieh; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Jemal, Ahmedin; Efstathiou, Jason A

2017-05-01

Numerous management options exist for patients with prostate cancer; however, recent trends and their influencing factors are not well described. To describe modern patterns of care and factors associated with management choice using the National Cancer Database. Patients with localized prostate cancer diagnosed between 2004 and 2012 were included and grouped according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines into low, intermediate, or high risk. Trend analyses and multivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with management. There were 598 640 patients who met the study criteria; 36.3% were classified as low risk, 43.8% intermediate risk, and 20.0% high risk. Over the study period, among low-risk patients, observation increased from 9.2% to 21.3%, while radical prostatectomy (RP) increased from 29.5% to 51.1% (p<0.001 for both). In contrast, external beam radiotherapy decreased from 24.3% to 14.5%, while brachytherapy decreased from 31.7% to 11.1%. A similar pattern was seen for patients with intermediate-risk or high-risk disease. Among high-risk patients, RP increased from 25.1% to 43.4% replacing external beam radiotherapy as the dominant therapy. On multivariate analysis, racial minorities, the uninsured, and low-income patients were less likely to receive RP. Low-risk patients in similar subgroups were significantly more likely to be observed. Limitations include potential miscoding or misclassification of variables. Patterns of care in localized prostate cancer are changing rapidly. While use of observation is increasing in low-risk groups, the use of RP is increasing across all risk groups with a concomitant decline in use of radiotherapy. Socioeconomic factors appear to influence management choice. In this report we identify a recent significant increase in the use of radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer patients. Socioeconomic factors such as race, insurance type, and income may affect treatments offered to and received by patients. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in Diversification Patterns and Signatures of Selection during the Evolution of Murinae-Associated Hantaviruses

PubMed Central

Castel, Guillaume; Razzauti, Maria; Jousselin, Emmanuelle; Kergoat, Gael J.; Cosson, Jean-François

2014-01-01

In the last 50 years, hantaviruses have significantly affected public health worldwide, but the exact extent of the distribution of hantavirus diseases, species and lineages and the risk of their emergence into new geographic areas are still poorly known. In particular, the determinants of molecular evolution of hantaviruses circulating in different geographical areas or different host species are poorly documented. Yet, this understanding is essential for the establishment of more accurate scenarios of hantavirus emergence under different climatic and environmental constraints. In this study, we focused on Murinae-associated hantaviruses (mainly Seoul Dobrava and Hantaan virus) using sequences available in GenBank and conducted several complementary phylogenetic inferences. We sought for signatures of selection and changes in patterns and rates of diversification in order to characterize hantaviruses’ molecular evolution at different geographical scales (global and local). We then investigated whether these events were localized in particular geographic areas. Our phylogenetic analyses supported the assumption that RNA virus molecular variations were under strong evolutionary constraints and revealed changes in patterns of diversification during the evolutionary history of hantaviruses. These analyses provide new knowledge on the molecular evolution of hantaviruses at different scales of time and space. PMID:24618811

The changing aetiology of head and neck squamous cell cancer: a tale of three cancers?

PubMed

Thomas, Steven J; Penfold, Chris M; Waylen, Andrea; Ness, Andrew R

2018-05-16

Head and neck cancers are the sixth most common cancers worldwide and an important cause of ill health.(1) Each year about 9000 cases are reported in the UK.(2) Survival is poor and despite advances in treatment, has not improved until recently.(3) The majority of head and neck cancers are squamous cell carcinomas, affecting the larynx, oropharynx and oral cavity. The aetiology is changing and this has implications for prevention and treatment. Twenty years ago, tobacco and alcohol consumption were considered to be the established risk factors and it was estimated that these risk factors accounted for about 75% of cases.(4) More recently human papillomavirus (HPV) has emerged as a likely cause of oropharyngeal cancer.(4) Here we argue that each cancer site is predicted differently by smoking, alcohol and sexual behaviour. We also suggest that these risk factors do not fully explain the changing pattern of disease observed in the UK. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The identification of age-associated cancer markers by an integrative analysis of dynamic DNA methylation changes.

PubMed

Wang, Yihan; Zhang, Jingyu; Xiao, Xingjun; Liu, Hongbo; Wang, Fang; Li, Song; Wen, Yanhua; Wei, Yanjun; Su, Jianzhong; Zhang, Yunming; Zhang, Yan

2016-03-07

As one of the most widely studied epigenetic modifications, DNA methylation has an important influence on human traits and cancers. Dynamic variations in DNA methylation have been reported in malignant neoplasm and aging; however, the mechanisms remain poorly understood. By constructing an age-associated and cancer-related weighted network (ACWN) based on the correlation of the methylation level and the protein-protein interaction, we found that DNA methylation changes associated with age were closely related to the occurrence of cancer. Additional analysis of 102 module genes mined from the ACWN revealed discrimination based on two main patterns. One pattern involved methylation levels that increased with aging and were higher in cancer patients compared with normal controls (HH pattern). The other pattern involved methylation levels that decreased with aging and were lower in cancer compared with normal (LL pattern). Upon incorporation with gene expression levels, 25 genes were filtered based on negative regulation by DNA methylation. These genes were regarded as potential cancer risk markers that were influenced by age in the process of carcinogenesis. Our results will facilitate further studies regarding the impact of the epigenetic effects of aging on diseases and will aid in the development of tailored cancer preventive strategies.

The identification of age-associated cancer markers by an integrative analysis of dynamic DNA methylation changes

PubMed Central

Wang, Yihan; Zhang, Jingyu; Xiao, Xingjun; Liu, Hongbo; Wang, Fang; Li, Song; Wen, Yanhua; Wei, Yanjun; Su, Jianzhong; Zhang, Yunming; Zhang, Yan

2016-01-01

As one of the most widely studied epigenetic modifications, DNA methylation has an important influence on human traits and cancers. Dynamic variations in DNA methylation have been reported in malignant neoplasm and aging; however, the mechanisms remain poorly understood. By constructing an age-associated and cancer-related weighted network (ACWN) based on the correlation of the methylation level and the protein-protein interaction, we found that DNA methylation changes associated with age were closely related to the occurrence of cancer. Additional analysis of 102 module genes mined from the ACWN revealed discrimination based on two main patterns. One pattern involved methylation levels that increased with aging and were higher in cancer patients compared with normal controls (HH pattern). The other pattern involved methylation levels that decreased with aging and were lower in cancer compared with normal (LL pattern). Upon incorporation with gene expression levels, 25 genes were filtered based on negative regulation by DNA methylation. These genes were regarded as potential cancer risk markers that were influenced by age in the process of carcinogenesis. Our results will facilitate further studies regarding the impact of the epigenetic effects of aging on diseases and will aid in the development of tailored cancer preventive strategies. PMID:26949191

Change in Pattern of Relapse After Antiangiogenic Therapy in High-Grade Glioma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Narayana, Ashwatha, E-mail: ashwatha.narayana@nyumc.org; Department of Neurosurgery, New York University Langone Medical Center, New York, NY; Kunnakkat, Saroj D.

2012-01-01

Purpose: Local recurrence is the dominant pattern of relapse in high-grade glioma (HGG) after conventional therapy. The recent use of antiangiogenic therapy has shown impressive radiologic and clinical responses in adult HGG. The preclinical data suggesting increased invasiveness after angiogenic blockade have necessitated a detailed analysis of the pattern of recurrence after therapy. Methods and Materials: A total of 162 consecutive patients with HGG, either newly diagnosed (n = 58) or with recurrent disease (n = 104) underwent therapy with bevacizumab at 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks and conventional chemotherapy with or without involved field radiotherapy until disease progression. Themore » pattern of recurrence and interval to progression were the primary aims of the present study. Diffuse invasive recurrence (DIR) was defined as the involvement of multiple lobes with or without crossing the midline. Results: At a median follow-up of 7 months (range, 1-37), 105 patients had recurrence, and 79 patients ultimately developed DIR. The interval to progression was similar in the DIR and local recurrence groups (6.5 and 6.3 months, p = .296). The hazard risk of DIR increased exponentially with time and was similar in those with newly diagnosed and recurrent HGG (R{sup 2} = 0.957). The duration of bevacizumab therapy increased the interval to recurrence (p < .0001) and improved overall survival (p < .0001). However, the pattern of relapse did not affect overall survival (p = .253). Conclusion: Along with an increase in median progression-free survival, bevacizumab therapy increased the risk of DIR in HGG patients. The risk of increased invasion with prolonged angiogenic blockade should be addressed in future clinical trials.« less

Using Integrated Assessment Models to Estimate the Economic Damages from Temperature Related Human Health Effects in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Calvin, K. V.; Puett, R.; Sapkota, A.; Schwarber, A.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase risks to human health. One pathway that may be particularly difficult to manage is adverse human health impacts (e.g. premature mortality and morbidity) from increases in mean temperatures and changing patterns of temperature extremes. Modeling how these health risks evolve over decadal time-scales is challenging as the severity of the impacts depends on changes in climate as well as socioeconomic conditions. Here, we show estimates of health damages as well as both direct and indirect economic damages that span climate and socioeconomic dimensions for each US state to 2050. We achieve this objective by extending the integrated assessment model (IAM), Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA). First, we quantify the change in premature mortality. We identify a range of exposure-response relationships for temperature related mortality through a critical review of the literature. We then implement these relationships in the GCAM by coupling them with projections of future temperature patterns and population estimates. Second, we monetize the effect of these adverse health effects, including both direct and indirect economic costs through labor force participation and productivity along a range of possible economic pathways. Finally, we evaluate how uncertainty in the parameters and assumptions affects the range of possible estimates. We conclude that the model is sensitive to assumptions regarding exposure-response relationship and population growth. The economic damages, however, are driven by the estimates of income and GDP growth as well as the potential for adaptation measures, namely the use and effectiveness of air conditioning.

Learning Temporal Patterns of Risk in a Predator-Diverse Environment

PubMed Central

Bosiger, Yoland J.; Lonnstedt, Oona M.; McCormick, Mark I.; Ferrari, Maud C. O.

2012-01-01

Predation plays a major role in shaping prey behaviour. Temporal patterns of predation risk have been shown to drive daily activity and foraging patterns in prey. Yet the ability to respond to temporal patterns of predation risk in environments inhabited by highly diverse predator communities, such as rainforests and coral reefs, has received surprisingly little attention. In this study, we investigated whether juvenile marine fish, Pomacentrus moluccensis (lemon damselfish), have the ability to learn to adjust the intensity of their antipredator response to match the daily temporal patterns of predation risk they experience. Groups of lemon damselfish were exposed to one of two predictable temporal risk patterns for six days. “Morning risk” treatment prey were exposed to the odour of Cephalopholis cyanostigma (rockcod) paired with conspecific chemical alarm cues (simulating a rockcod present and feeding) during the morning, and rockcod odour only in the evening (simulating a rockcod present but not feeding). “Evening risk” treatment prey had the two stimuli presented to them in the opposite order. When tested individually for their response to rockcod odour alone, lemon damselfish from the morning risk treatment responded with a greater antipredator response intensity in the morning than in the evening. In contrast, those lemon damselfish previously exposed to the evening risk treatment subsequently responded with a greater antipredator response when tested in the evening. The results of this experiment demonstrate that P. moluccensis have the ability to learn temporal patterns of predation risk and can adjust their foraging patterns to match the threat posed by predators at a given time of day. Our results provide the first experimental demonstration of a mechanism by which prey in a complex, multi-predator environment can learn and respond to daily patterns of predation risk. PMID:22493699

Atypical dimensions of caregiver–adolescent interaction in an economically disadvantaged sample

PubMed Central

Kobak, Roger; Zajac, Kristyn; Abbott, Caroline; Zisk, Abby; Bounoua, Nadia

2018-01-01

The Goal-corrected Partnership Adolescent Coding System (GPACS) has shown promise in assessing a secure as well as three atypical patterns of parent-adolescent interaction during a conflict discussion. The current study of 186 economically disadvantaged families examines the degree to which four GPACS patterns: Secure/Collaborative, Punitive, Role Confused and Disoriented—account for residual change in adolescents’ social competence and maladaptive behavior (internalizing, externalizing, and risk behaviors) between ages 13 to 15. Adolescents from Secure/Collaborative dyads at age 13 were more likely to have a secure state of mind in the AAI at age 15 and showed increases in teachers’ ratings of empathy and decreases in teachers’ ratings of externalizing behaviors between ages 13 and 15. Adolescents in Disoriented dyads showed a dramatic increase in teacher-rated internalizing problems, while male adolescents in Role Confused dyads reported increased involvement in risk behaviors including unprotected sexual activity and substance use problems. PMID:28401833

Families discovering asthma in their high-risk infants and toddlers with severe persistent disease.

PubMed

Koenig, Karel

2006-02-01

Interpretive phenomenology was used to discover the earliest experiences of families of children younger than 4 years hospitalized for severe persistent asthma. The children who were African American or Latino and living in poverty were at highest risk of morbidity and mortality. Three families with distinctly varied responses to early symptoms were chosen from an investigation of 11 families for this study. Each gave three home interviews and participated in home observations. All families experienced life-changing responses to their children's distressed breathing. All had experienced asthma in themselves or others that shaped their beliefs and management patterns. Family experiences prior to and following diagnosis are discussed. Findings suggest that understanding these experiences and respecting families' earliest responses will help clarify established family management patterns for severe asthma in infants and toddlers and will enhance the ability of providers to guide the care of these families and children.

Dietary patterns derived with multiple methods from food diaries and breast cancer risk in the UK Dietary Cohort Consortium

PubMed Central

Pot, Gerda K; Stephen, Alison M; Dahm, Christina C; Key, Timothy J; Cairns, Benjamin J; Burley, Victoria J; Cade, Janet E; Greenwood, Darren C; Keogh, Ruth H; Bhaniani, Amit; McTaggart, Alison; Lentjes, Marleen AH; Mishra, Gita; Brunner, Eric J; Khaw, Kay Tee

2015-01-01

Background/ Objectives In spite of several studies relating dietary patterns to breast cancer risk, evidence so far remains inconsistent. This study aimed to investigate associations of dietary patterns derived with three different methods with breast cancer risk. Subjects/ Methods The Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), principal components analyses (PCA) and reduced rank regression (RRR) were used to derive dietary patterns in a case-control study of 610 breast cancer cases and 1891 matched controls within 4 UK cohort studies. Dietary intakes were collected prospectively using 4-to 7-day food diaries and resulting food consumption data were grouped into 42 food groups. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for associations between pattern scores and breast cancer risk adjusting for relevant covariates. A separate model was fitted for post-menopausal women only. Results The MDS was not associated with breast cancer risk (OR comparing 1st tertile with 3rd 1.20 (95% CI 0.92; 1.56)), nor the first PCA-derived dietary pattern, explaining 2.7% of variation of diet and characterized by cheese, crisps and savoury snacks, legumes, nuts and seeds (OR 1.18 (95% CI 0.91; 1.53)). The first RRR-derived pattern, a ‘high-alcohol’ pattern, was associated with a higher risk of breast cancer (OR 1.27; 95% CI 1.00; 1.62), which was most pronounced in post-menopausal women (OR 1.46 (95% CI 1.08; 1.98). Conclusions A ‘high-alcohol’ dietary pattern derived with RRR was associated with an increased breast cancer risk; no evidence of associations of other dietary patterns with breast cancer risk was observed in this study. PMID:25052230

Spatiotemporal causal modeling for the management of Dengue Fever

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Huang, Tailin; Lee, Chieh-Han

2015-04-01

Increasing climatic extremes have caused growing concerns about the health effects and disease outbreaks. The association between climate variation and the occurrence of epidemic diseases play an important role on a country's public health systems. Part of the impacts are direct casualties associated with the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoons, the proliferation of disease vectors and the short-term increase of clinic visits on gastro-intestinal discomforts, diarrhea, dermatosis, or psychological trauma. Other impacts come indirectly from the influence of disasters on the ecological and socio-economic systems, including the changes of air/water quality, living environment and employment condition. Previous risk assessment studies on dengue fever focus mostly on climatic and non-climatic factors and their association with vectors' reproducing pattern. The public-health implication may appear simple. Considering the seasonal changes and regional differences, however, the causality of the impacts is full of uncertainties. Without further investigation, the underlying dengue fever risk dynamics may not be assessed accurately. The objective of this study is to develop an epistemic framework for assessing dynamic dengue fever risk across space and time. The proposed framework integrates cross-departmental data, including public-health databases, precipitation data over time and various socio-economic data. We explore public-health issues induced by typhoon through literature review and spatiotemporal analytic techniques on public health databases. From those data, we identify relevant variables and possible causal relationships, and their spatiotemporal patterns derived from our proposed spatiotemporal techniques. Eventually, we create a spatiotemporal causal network and a framework for modeling dynamic dengue fever risk.

Modifiers: Increasing Richness and Nuance of Design Pattern Languages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolfschoten, Gwendolyn L.; Briggs, Robert O.; Lukosch, Stephan

One of the challenges when establishing and maintaining a pattern language is to balance richness with simplicity. On the one hand, designers need a variety of useful design patterns to increase the speed of their design efforts and to reduce design risk. On the other hand, the greater the variety of design patterns in a language, the higher the cognitive load to remember and select among them. One solution to this problem is the concept of a modifier design pattern, a design pattern for pattern languages. A modifier pattern is a named, documented variation that can be applied to some set of other design patterns. They create similar, useful changes and refinements to the solutions derived from any pattern to which they are applied. The modifier concept, described in this paper emerged in a relatively new design pattern language for collaborative work practices in which the design patterns are called thinkLets. When analyzing the thinkLet pattern language, we found that many of the patterns we knew were variations and refinements of other patterns. However, we also found patterns in these variations; we found variations that could be applied to different patterns, with similar effects. We document these variations as modifiers. In this paper, we introduce the concept of modifier design patterns and illustrate the use of modifiers with two case studies.

Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

PubMed

Shao, Wanyun; Goidel, Kirby

2016-11-01

What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A multicomponent nutrient bar promotes weight loss and improves dyslipidemia and insulin resistance in the overweight/obese: Chronic inflammation blunts these improvements

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Poor diets are a major cause of obesity-associated metabolic dysregulation. It is difficult for many people to change dietary patterns. We hypothesized that dietary-induced metabolic dysregulation, and consequent increased risk of disease, is due in large part to what poor diets are lacking; a nutri...

Land cover variation and West Nile virus prevalence: Patterns, processes, and implications for disease control

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ezenwa, V.O.; Milheim, L.E.; Coffey, M.F.; Godsey, M.S.; King, R.J.; Guptill, S.C.

2007-01-01

Identifying links between environmental variables and infectious disease risk is essential to understanding how human-induced environmental changes will effect the dynamics of human and wildlife diseases. Although land cover change has often been tied to spatial variation in disease occurrence, the underlying factors driving the correlations are often unknown, limiting the applicability of these results for disease prevention and control. In this study, we described associations between land cover composition and West Nile virus (WNV) infection prevalence, and investigated three potential processes accounting for observed patterns: (1) variation in vector density; (2) variation in amplification host abundance; and (3) variation in host community composition. Interestingly, we found that WNV infection rates among Culex mosquitoes declined with increasing wetland cover, but wetland area was not significantly associated with either vector density or amplification host abundance. By contrast, wetland area was strongly correlated with host community composition, and model comparisons suggested that this factor accounted, at least partially, for the observed effect of wetland area on WNV infection risk. Our results suggest that preserving large wetland areas, and by extension, intact wetland bird communities, may represent a valuable ecosystem-based approach for controlling WNV outbreaks. ?? Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

Dietary patterns and breast cancer risk in a prospective Japanese study.

PubMed

Kojima, Reiji; Okada, Emiko; Ukawa, Shigekazu; Mori, Mitsuru; Wakai, Kenji; Date, Chigusa; Iso, Hiroyasu; Tamakoshi, Akiko

2017-01-01

The association between dietary patterns and breast cancer has been inconsistent. This study examined associations between dietary patterns and risk of developing breast cancer among 23,172 women from the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study, including 119 incidences of breast cancer diagnosed during a median 16.9-year follow-up period. Factor analysis was conducted to obtain dietary patterns, and Cox proportional models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) for breast cancer morbidity. Three dietary patterns were identified: ''vegetable pattern'' (vegetables, potatoes, seaweed, tofu, fruits, fresh fish, eggs, and miso soup); ''animal food pattern'' (meat, deep-fried foods, fried vegetables, fish paste and salt-preserved fish); and "dairy product pattern'' (milk, dairy products, fruits, coffee and tea). After adjusting for potential confounders, the vegetable and dairy product patterns were not significantly associated with risk of breast cancer. However, the animal food pattern was significantly associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer morbidity among premenopausal women by HR 0.47 for the 2nd tertile (95 % CI 0.22-1.00) and HR 0.42 for the 3rd tertile (95 % CI 0.18-0.93), compared with the bottom tertile (p for trend 0.04). We found no significant association between the vegetable and dairy product dietary patterns and breast cancer risk; however, an animal product diet may reduce risk of breast cancer among premenopausal Japanese women.

Use of historical logging patterns to identify disproportionately logged ecosystems within temperate rainforests of southeastern Alaska.

PubMed

Albert, David M; Schoen, John W

2013-08-01

The forests of southeastern Alaska remain largely intact and contain a substantial proportion of Earth's remaining old-growth temperate rainforest. Nonetheless, industrial-scale logging has occurred since the 1950s within a relatively narrow range of forest types that has never been quantified at a regional scale. We analyzed historical patterns of logging from 1954 through 2004 and compared the relative rates of change among forest types, landform associations, and biogeographic provinces. We found a consistent pattern of disproportionate logging at multiple scales, including large-tree stands and landscapes with contiguous productive old-growth forests. The highest rates of change were among landform associations and biogeographic provinces that originally contained the largest concentrations of productive old growth (i.e., timber volume >46.6 m³/ha). Although only 11.9% of productive old-growth forests have been logged region wide, large-tree stands have been reduced by at least 28.1%, karst forests by 37%, and landscapes with the highest volume of contiguous old growth by 66.5%. Within some island biogeographic provinces, loss of rare forest types may place local viability of species dependent on old growth at risk of extirpation. Examination of historical patterns of change among ecological forest types can facilitate planning for conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of forest resources. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Dengue Fever Trends and Climate Change in San Juan, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller-Karger, F. E.; Mendez-Lazaro, P.; Otis, D. B.; McCarthy, M.; Pena-Orellana, M.

2014-12-01

Climate change has important implications for public health. We developed and tested the hypothesis that conditions for dengue fever transmission in San Juan (Puerto Rico, USA) are becoming favorable as a result of meteorological drivers being modified with climate change. Sea level pressure, mean sea level (MSL), wind, sea surface temperature (SST), air surface temperature (AST), rainfall, and confirmed dengue cases were variables examined over the past 30 years, or longer for some variables. Statistical tools used included Principal Component Analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient, Mann-Kendall trend tests, and logistic regressions. Results show that dry days are increasing and that wet days are decreasing. MSL is steadily increasing, which increases the risk of dengue cases along the coast, as the perimeter of the San Juan Bay estuary expands and the shoreline moves inland. Warming is evident in both SST and AST. Maximum and minimum air surface temperature extremes have also increased. Incidence of dengue is accelerating along with environmental change. For example, between 2000-2011, dengue transmission increased by a factor of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.9-6.1) for each 1ºC increase in SST. Between 2007 and 2011, this risk factor increased to 5.2 (95% CI: 1.9-13.9) for every 1ºC increase in SST. An important but difficult to examine problem is how social and economic factors affect such dengue fever transmission rates in light of environmental change. A concern is that the patterns observed in San Juan are representative of potential incidence of dengue virus in other parts of the island of Puerto Rico and in other Caribbean nations. These results help understand patterns of disease spreading, and allow public health officials to evaluate scenarios and interventions intended to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Comparison of the spatial patterns of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe at two points in time, spaced twenty-nine years apart: is climate variability of importance?

PubMed

Pedersen, Ulrik B; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Midzi, Nicholas; Mduluza, Tkafira; Mukaratirwa, Samson; Fensholt, Rasmus; Vennervald, Birgitte J; Kristensen, Thomas K; Vounatsou, Penelope; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie

2017-05-08

Temperature, precipitation and humidity are known to be important factors for the development of schistosome parasites as well as their intermediate snail hosts. Climate therefore plays an important role in determining the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis and it is expected that climate change will alter distribution and transmission patterns. Reliable predictions of distribution changes and likely transmission scenarios are key to efficient schistosomiasis intervention-planning. However, it is often difficult to assess the direction and magnitude of the impact on schistosomiasis induced by climate change, as well as the temporal transferability and predictive accuracy of the models, as prevalence data is often only available from one point in time. We evaluated potential climate-induced changes on the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe using prevalence data from two points in time, 29 years apart; to our knowledge, this is the first study investigating this over such a long time period. We applied historical weather data and matched prevalence data of two schistosome species (Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni). For each time period studied, a Bayesian geostatistical model was fitted to a range of climatic, environmental and other potential risk factors to identify significant predictors that could help us to obtain spatially explicit schistosomiasis risk estimates for Zimbabwe. The observed general downward trend in schistosomiasis prevalence for Zimbabwe from 1981 and the period preceding a survey and control campaign in 2010 parallels a shift towards a drier and warmer climate. However, a statistically significant relationship between climate change and the change in prevalence could not be established.

The consequences of land-cover changes on soil erosion distribution in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cebecauer, Tomáš; Hofierka, Jaroslav

2008-06-01

Soil erosion is a complex process determined by mutual interaction of numerous factors. The aim of erosion research at regional scales is a general evaluation of the landscape susceptibility to soil erosion by water, taking into account the main factors influencing this process. One of the key factors influencing the susceptibility of a region to soil erosion is land cover. Natural as well as human-induced changes of landscape may result in both the diminishment and acceleration of soil erosion. Recent studies of land-cover changes indicate that during the last decade more than 4.11% of Slovak territory has changed. The objective of this study is to assess the influence of land-cover and crop rotation changes over the 1990-2000 period on the intensity and spatial pattern of soil erosion in Slovakia. The assessment is based on principles defined in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) modified for application at regional scale and the use of the CORINE land cover (CLC) databases for 1990 and 2000. The C factor for arable land has been refined using statistical data on the mean crop rotation and the acreage of particular agricultural crops in the districts of Slovakia. The L factor has been calculated using sample areas with parcels identified by LANDSAT TM data. The results indicate that the land-cover and crop rotation changes had a significant influence on soil erosion pattern predominately in the hilly and mountainous parts of Slovakia. The pattern of soil erosion changes exhibits high spatial variation with overall slightly decreased soil erosion risks. These changes are associated with ongoing land ownership changes, changing structure of crops, deforestation and afforestation.

Use of Academic Detailing With Audit and Feedback to Improve Antipsychotic Pharmacotherapy.

PubMed

Brunette, Mary F; Cotes, Robert O; de Nesnera, Alexander; McHugo, Gregory; Dzebisashvili, Nino; Xie, Haiyi; Bartels, Stephen J

2018-06-08

Second-generation antipsychotics vary in their propensity to cause serious cardiometabolic side effects. In addition, use of two or more antipsychotics (polypharmacy) may lead to additive side effects and has not been shown to be consistently more effective than monotherapy. This study examined the use of academic detailing with audit and feedback to improve antipsychotic prescribing practices, including antipsychotic polypharmacy and utilization of medication with high or low risk of cardiometabolic side effects ("high risk" or "low risk," respectively). Four intervention sessions were provided over two years to psychiatric care providers at community mental health centers. Segmented regression within the general estimating equation model framework used Medicaid pharmacy claims to examine prescribing patterns before and after the intervention among all beneficiaries (67,721 person-months) over a five-year period. After the intervention, 10.9% of beneficiaries with antipsychotic claims were on polypharmacy, compared with 13.1% before the invention. Use of high-risk and low-risk antipsychotics did not change. The final adjusted polypharmacy model showed that antipsychotic polypharmacy decreased among young adults and adults ages 40 or older compared with beneficiaries ages 30-39 (β=-.02, p=.04, and β=-.02, p=.007, respectively). The raw proportion of beneficiaries on high- and low-risk agents did not change, although final adjusted models demonstrated changes in use of high- and low-risk agents by diagnosis and risk group. Polypharmacy decreased among young and older adults after academic detailing with audit and feedback. Although further research is needed, this low-intensity intervention may help mental health systems reduce antipsychotic polypharmacy.

What are infant siblings teaching us about autism in infancy?

PubMed Central

Rogers, Sally J.

2009-01-01

International research to understand infant patterns of development in autism spectrum disorders has recently focused on a research paradigm involving prospective longitudinal studies of infant siblings of children with autism. Such designs use a comparison group of infant siblings without any familial risks (the low- risk group) to gather longitudinal information about developmental skills across the first three years of life, followed by clinical diagnosis of ASD at 36 months. This review focuses on five topics: presence of ASD in the infant sibling groups, patterns and characteristics of motor development, patterns and characteristics of social and emotional development, patterns and characteristics of intentional communication, both verbal and nonverbal, and patterns that mark the onset of behaviors pathognomonic for ASD. Symptoms in all these areas typically begin to be detected during the age period of 12 –24 months in infants who will develop autism. Onset of the symptoms occurs at varying ages and in varying patterns, but the pattern of frank loss of skills and marked regression reported from previous retrospective studies in 20–30% of children is seldom reported in these infant sibling prospective studies. Two surprises involve the very early onset of repetitive and unusual sensory behaviors, and the lack of predictive symptoms at age 6 months. Contrary to current views that autism is a disorder that profoundly affects social development from the earliest months of life, the data from these studies presents a picture of autism as a disorder involving symptoms across multiple domains with a gradual onset that changes both ongoing developmental rate and established behavioral patterns across the first two to three years of life. PMID:19582867

What are infant siblings teaching us about autism in infancy?

PubMed

Rogers, Sally J

2009-06-01

International research to understand infant patterns of development in autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) has recently focused on a research paradigm involving prospective longitudinal studies of infant siblings of children with autism. Such designs use a comparison group of infant siblings without any familial risks (the low-risk group) to gather longitudinal information about developmental skills across the first 3 years of life, followed by clinical diagnosis of ASD at 36 months. This review focuses on five topics: presence of ASD in the infant sibling groups, patterns and characteristics of motor development, patterns and characteristics of social and emotional development, patterns and characteristics of intentional communication, both verbal and nonverbal, and patterns that mark the onset of behaviors pathognomonic for ASD. Symptoms in all these areas typically begin to be detected during the age period of 12-24 months in infants who will develop autism. Onset of the symptoms occurs at varying ages and in varying patterns, but the pattern of frank loss of skills and marked regression reported from previous retrospective studies in 20-30% of children is seldom reported in these infant sibling prospective studies. Two surprises involve the very early onset of repetitive and unusual sensory behaviors, and the lack of predictive symptoms at the age of 6 months. Contrary to current views that autism is a disorder that profoundly affects social development from the earliest months of life, the data from these studies presents a picture of autism as a disorder involving symptoms across multiple domains with a gradual onset that changes both ongoing developmental rate and established behavioral patterns across the first 2-3 years of life.

Epigenetic mechanisms in developmental programming of adult disease

PubMed Central

Chen, Man; Zhang, Lubo

2011-01-01

Adverse insults during intrauterine life can result in permanent changes in the physiology and metabolism of the offspring, which in turn leads to an increased risk of disease in adulthood. This is an adaptational response by the fetus to changes in the environmental signals that it receives during early life to ensure its survival and prepare itself for postnatal life. Increasing evidence suggests that the epigenetic regulation of gene expression patterns has a crucial role in the developmental programming of adult disease. This review summarizes recent studies of epigenetic mechanisms and focuses particularly on studies that explore identifiable epigenetic biomarkers in the promoters of specific disease-associated genes. Such biomarkers would enable early recognition of children who might be at risk of developing adult disease with fetal origins. PMID:21945859

Clinical implications of treating depressed older adults with SSRIs: possible risk of hyponatremia.

PubMed

Smith, Judith M

2010-04-01

Depression is a serious mental health problem in older adults. Some of the symptoms of depression include depressed mood, significant change in weight or appetite, changes in sleep patterns, a decrease in concentration and energy, and possible suicide. However, depression is a treatable illness, especially with the newer class of antidepressant agents, the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). One side effect of SSRI use includes hyponatremia, which is becoming an increasingly serious complication that may have harmful clinical ramifications. Older adults are especially at risk for hyponatremia and could experience serious consequences if left untreated. The purpose of this article is to use an individual example to demonstrate the clinical importance of detecting hyponatremia in older adults receiving SSRI treatment. Copyright 2010, SLACK Incorporated.

Spatial pattern of risk of common raven predation on desert tortoises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kristan, W. B.; Boarman, W.I.

2003-01-01

Common Ravens (Corvus corax) in the Mojave Desert of California, USA are subsidized by anthropogenic resources. Large numbers of nonbreeding ravens are attracted to human developments and thus are spatially restricted, whereas breeding ravens are distributed more evenly throughout the area. We investigated whether the spatial distribution of risk of predation by ravens to juveniles of the threatened desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) was determined by the spatial distribution of (1) nonbreeding ravens at human developments (leading to "spillover" predation) or (2) breeding individuals throughout developed and undeveloped areas (leading to " hyperpredation"). Predation risk, measured using styrofoam models of juvenile desert tortoises, was high near places attracting large numbers of nonbreeding ravens, near successful nests, and far from successful nests when large numbers of nonbreeding ravens were present. Patterns consistent with both "spillover" predation and "hyperpredation" were thus observed, attributed to the nonbreeding and breeding segments of the population, respectively. Furthermore, because locations of successful nests changed almost annually, consistent low-predation refugia for juvenile desert tortoises were nearly nonexistent. Consequently, anthropogenic resources for ravens could indirectly lead to the suppression, decline, or even extinction of desert tortoise populations.

The Risk of Some Veterinary Antimicrobial Agents on Public Health Associated with Antimicrobial Resistance and their Molecular Basis

PubMed Central

Hao, Haihong; Sander, Pascal; Iqbal, Zahid; Wang, Yulian; Cheng, Guyue; Yuan, Zonghui

2016-01-01

The risk of antimicrobial agents used in food-producing animals on public health associated with antimicrobial resistance continues to be a current topic of discussion as related to animal and human public health. In the present review, resistance monitoring data, and risk assessment results of some important antimicrobial agents were cited to elucidate the possible association of antimicrobial use in food animals and antimicrobial resistance in humans. From the selected examples, it was apparent from reviewing the published scientific literature that the ban on use of some antimicrobial agents (e.g., avoparcin, fluoroquinolone, tetracyclines) did not change drug resistance patterns and did not mitigate the intended goal of minimizing antimicrobial resistance. The use of some antimicrobial agents (e.g., virginiamycin, macrolides, and cephalosporins) in food animals may have an impact on the antimicrobial resistance in humans, but it was largely depended on the pattern of drug usage in different geographical regions. The epidemiological characteristics of resistant bacteria were closely related to molecular mechanisms involved in the development, fitness, and transmission of antimicrobial resistance. PMID:27803693

The effects of perception of risk and importance of answering and initiating a cellular phone call while driving.

PubMed

Nelson, Erik; Atchley, Paul; Little, Todd D

2009-05-01

Recent data suggest that laws banning cellular phone use while driving may not change use patterns, especially among young drivers with high rates of mobile phone adoption. We examined reasons younger drivers choose or do not choose to talk on a phone while driving among a sample of young drivers (n=276) with very high ownership of cellular phones (over 99%) and a very high use of cellular phones while driving (100% for those that were primary operators of an automobile). Respondents were surveyed for patterns of use, types of call, perceived risk, and motivations for use. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) to explore the relationships between perceived risk of the behavior, emotionality of the call, perceived importance of the call, and how often calls were initiated versus answered. The model suggests that even though people believe that talking on a cellular phone while driving is dangerous, they will tend to initiate a cellular conversation if they believe that the call is important.

Dietary patterns, goitrogenic food, and thyroid cancer: a case-control study in French Polynesia.

PubMed

Cléro, Énora; Doyon, Françoise; Chungue, Vaïana; Rachédi, Frédérique; Boissin, Jean-Louis; Sebbag, Joseph; Shan, Larrys; Rubino, Carole; de Vathaire, Florent

2012-01-01

French Polynesia has one of the world's highest thyroid cancer incidence rates. A case-control study among native residents of French Polynesia included 229 cases of differentiated thyroid cancer diagnosed between 1979 and 2004, and 371 population controls. Dietary patterns and goitrogenic food consumption (cabbage, cassava) were analyzed. We used a factor analysis to identify dietary patterns and a conditional logistic regression analysis to investigate the association between dietary patterns or food items and thyroid cancer risk. Two distinct dietary patterns were identified: traditional Polynesian and Western. A nonsignificant inverse association was observed between the traditional Polynesian dietary pattern and thyroid cancer risk. The Western pattern was not associated with thyroid cancer risk. Cassava consumption was significantly associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer. In conclusion, a traditional Polynesian dietary pattern led to a weak reduced risk of thyroid cancer in French Polynesia. The protective effect of cassava on this cancer does not seem to be substantially different from that of cabbage, which was the main goitrogenic food studied to date.

Simvastatin prescribing patterns before and after FDA dosing restrictions: a retrospective analysis of a large healthcare claims database.

PubMed

Tuchscherer, Rhianna M; Nair, Kavita; Ghushchyan, Vahram; Saseen, Joseph J

2015-02-01

Muscle-related events, or myopathies, are a commonly reported adverse event associated with statin use. In June 2011, the US FDA released a Drug Safety Communication that provided updated product labeling with dosing restrictions for simvastatin to minimize the risk of myopathies. Our objective was to describe prescribing patterns of simvastatin in combination with medications known to increase the risk of myopathies following updated product labeling dosing restrictions in June 2011. A retrospective observational analysis was carried out, in which administrative claims data were utilized to identify prescribing patterns of simvastatin in combination with calcium channel blockers (CCBs) and other pre-specified drug therapies. Prescribing patterns were analyzed on a monthly basis 24 months prior to and 9 months following product label changes. Incidence of muscle-related events was also analyzed. In June 2011, a total of 60% of patients with overlapping simvastatin-CCB claims and 94% of patients with overlapping simvastatin-non-CCB claims were prescribed an against-label combination. As of March 2012, a total of 41% and 93% of patients continued to be prescribed against-label simvastatin-CCB and simvastatin-non-CCB combinations, respectively. The most commonly prescribed dose of simvastatin was 20 mg (39%). Against-label combinations were most commonly prescribed at a simvastatin dose of 40 mg (56%). Amlodipine was the most commonly prescribed CCB in combination with simvastatin (70%) and the most common CCB prescribed against-label (67%). Despite improvements in prescribing practices, many patients are still exposed to potentially harmful simvastatin combinations. Aggressive changes in simvastatin prescribing systems and processes are needed to improve compliance with FDA labeling to improve medication and patient safety.

A two-period assessment of changes in specialist contact in a high-risk pregnancy telemedical program.

PubMed

Britt, David W; Norton, Jonathan D; Hubanks, Amanda S; Navidad, Susan A; Perkins, Rosalyn J; Lowery, Curtis L

2006-02-01

The purpose was to examine the organizational impact of a state-wide high-risk pregnancy telemedical system, Antenatal and Neonatal Guidelines, Education and Learning System (ANGELS), after the first year of its roll out. The focus is on several aspects of system organization, including the volume and diversity of patient-based telemedical consultations and weekly telemedical case discussions, telephone consultations, and changes in the pattern of birth-related patient transports. Individual data on patient transports and associated hospital days, provider-specialist telephone calls, and telemedical consultations were collected for two time periods: December 2002-May 2003 (prior to initiation of ANGELS), and December 2003-May 2004 (postinitiation of ANGELS). Different statistical tests were constructed to compare the two periods as appropriate. Significant increases were observed in the volume and geographic diversity of telemedical consultations and the volume of telephone consultations. There was a moderate, but nonsignificant decrease in the number of maternal transports to University of Arkansas School of Medical Sciences (UAMS), and the average length of stay decreased. The type of specialist-provider and specialist-patient contact has changed as the ANGELS high-risk pregnancy telemedical system has evolved over the first year. We conclude that the rollout of the ANGELS program is changing the shape of high-risk patient care in Arkansas, and we attribute that to an evolving collegial network between specialists and generalists.

Dietary patterns and gastric cancer risk in Mexico.

PubMed

Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar; Hernández-Ramírez, Raúl U; López-Carrillo, Lizbeth

2014-01-01

Multiple epidemiological studies have evaluated the relationship between diet and gastric cancer (GC), focusing on individual foods and nutrients. However, some studies have estimated the association between dietary patterns and GC risk. To identify the dietary patterns of residents of Mexico City and to assess the association of these patterns with GC, a population-based case-control study with 248 histologically confirmed GC cases and 478 controls paired by age and sex was carried out. The dietary patterns were characterized from 22 food groups through factorial analysis. Three major dietary patterns were identified. Pattern 1 was characterized by the consumption of vegetables, fruits, and white meat; subjects in the highest quintile of this pattern had a lower GC risk than those in the lowest quintile [odds ratio (OR(Q5 vs. Q1)) = 0.43; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.24-0.77; P trend = 0.010]. A comparison between the extreme quintiles of the third pattern (which included major consumption of refined grains and desserts), resulted in the following: OR(Q5 vs. Q1) = 4.80; 95%CI: 2.56-8.98; P-trend < 0.001). Additionally, we found no significant association between the second pattern (characterized by high consumption of Mexican food) and GC risk. This is the first study of associations between dietary patterns and GC in Mexico to confirm that GC risk is lower in individuals with healthy dietary patterns.

The persuasion network is modulated by drug-use risk and predicts anti-drug message effectiveness.

PubMed

Huskey, Richard; Mangus, J Michael; Turner, Benjamin O; Weber, René

2017-12-01

While a persuasion network has been proposed, little is known about how network connections between brain regions contribute to attitude change. Two possible mechanisms have been advanced. One hypothesis predicts that attitude change results from increased connectivity between structures implicated in affective and executive processing in response to increases in argument strength. A second functional perspective suggests that highly arousing messages reduce connectivity between structures implicated in the encoding of sensory information, which disrupts message processing and thereby inhibits attitude change. However, persuasion is a multi-determined construct that results from both message features and audience characteristics. Therefore, persuasive messages should lead to specific functional connectivity patterns among a priori defined structures within the persuasion network. The present study exposed 28 subjects to anti-drug public service announcements where arousal, argument strength, and subject drug-use risk were systematically varied. Psychophysiological interaction analyses provide support for the affective-executive hypothesis but not for the encoding-disruption hypothesis. Secondary analyses show that video-level connectivity patterns among structures within the persuasion network predict audience responses in independent samples (one college-aged, one nationally representative). We propose that persuasion neuroscience research is best advanced by considering network-level effects while accounting for interactions between message features and target audience characteristics. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

Sleep Patterns as Predictors for Disability Pension Due to Low Back Diagnoses: A 23-Year Longitudinal Study of Finnish Twins

PubMed Central

Ropponen, Annina; Silventoinen, Karri; Hublin, Christer; Svedberg, Pia; Koskenvuo, Markku; Kaprio, Jaakko

2013-01-01

Study Objectives: Impaired sleep patterns are known to be associated with many chronic conditions and ultimately they may lead to permanent work incapacity. Less is known about the associations between sleep patterns and cause-specific disability pensions, such as low back diagnoses, or whether familial factors (genetics and family environment) can affect the associations. The objective of this study was to investigate sleep patterns as predictors of disability pension due to low back diagnoses with a 23-year follow-up. Design and Setting: A prospective cohort study with comprehensive mailed questionnaires about sleep patterns, e.g., quality and length of sleep in 1975 and 1981. Follow-up from the national disability pension register data until 2004. Interventions: Not applicable. Participants: There were 18,979 individuals (7,722 complete twin pairs) born before 1958. Measurements and Results: Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Disability pension due to low back diagnoses had been granted to 467 individuals during the follow-up. Sleeping moderately well (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.02, 1.53), or fairly poorly/poorly (HR 2.05; 95% CI 1.53, 2.73) at baseline predicted a significantly higher risk for disability pension. Stable patterns of sleeping either fairly well (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.01, 1.64), or stably fairly poorly/poorly (HR 2.29; 95% CI 1.49, 3.52) between 1975 and 1981 were associated with a higher risk as compared to a stable pattern of sleeping well. Furthermore, a decrease in quality of sleep from 1975 to 1981 was associated (HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.03, 1.76) with an increased risk of disability pension. Conclusions: Sleep quality and changes in sleep quality appear to be early predictors for disability pension due to low back diagnoses independently from other confounding factors. Citation: Ropponen A; Silventoinen K; Hublin C; Svedberg P; Koskenvuo M; Kaprio J. Sleep patterns as predictors for disability pension due to low back diagnoses: a 23-year longitudinal study of Finnish twins. SLEEP 2013;36(6):891-897. PMID:23729932

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of climate change on the microbial safety of pre-harvest leafy green vegetables as indicated by Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.

PubMed

Liu, Cheng; Hofstra, Nynke; Franz, Eelco

2013-05-15

The likelihood of leafy green vegetable (LGV) contamination and the associated pathogen growth and survival are strongly related to climatic conditions. Particularly temperature increase and precipitation pattern changes have a close relationship not only with the fate and transport of enteric bacteria, but also with their growth and survival. Using all relevant literature, this study reviews and synthesises major impacts of climate change (temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes) on contamination sources (manure, soil, surface water, sewage and wildlife) and pathways of foodborne pathogens (focussing on Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.) on pre-harvested LGVs. Whether climate change increases their prevalence depends not only on the resulting local balance of the positive and negative impacts but also on the selected regional climate change scenarios. However, the contamination risks are likely to increase. This review shows the need for quantitative modelling approaches with scenario analyses and additional laboratory experiments. This study gives an extensive overview of the impacts of climate change on the contamination of pre-harvested LGVs and shows that climate change should not be ignored in food safety management and research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of climate change on skin disease in North America.

PubMed

Kaffenberger, Benjamin H; Shetlar, David; Norton, Scott A; Rosenbach, Misha

2017-01-01

Global temperatures continue to rise, reaching new records almost every year this decade. Although the causes are debated, climate change is a reality. Consequences of climate change include melting of the arctic ice cap, rising of sea levels, changes in precipitation patterns, and increased severe weather events. This article updates dermatologists about the effects of climate change on the epidemiology and geographic ranges of selected skin diseases in North America. Although globalization, travel, and trade are also important to changing disease and vector patterns, climate change creates favorable habitats and expanded access to immunologically naïve hosts. Endemic North American illnesses such as Lyme disease, leishmaniasis, and dimorphic fungal infections have recently expanded the geographic areas of risk. As temperatures increase, epidemic viral diseases such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease may develop transmission seasons that are longer and more intense. Chikungunya and dengue are now reported within the southern United States, with Zika on the horizon. Cutaneous injuries from aquatic and marine organisms that have expanding habitats and longer durations of peak activity include jellyfish envenomation, cercarial dermatitis, and seabather eruption, among others. Skin cancer rates may also be affected indirectly by changes in temperature and associated behaviors. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Ecological risk assessment of land use based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA): a case study of Haitan Island, Fujian Province].

PubMed

Wu, Jian; Chen, Peng; Wen, Chao-Xiang; Fu, Shi-Feng; Chen, Qing-Hui

2014-07-01

As a novel environment management tool, ecological risk assessment has provided a new perspective for the quantitative evaluation of ecological effects of land-use change. In this study, Haitan Island in Fujian Province was taken as a case. Based on the Landsat TM obtained in 1990, SPOT5 RS images obtained in 2010, general layout planning map of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone in 2030, as well as the field investigation data, we established an ecological risk index to measure ecological endpoints. By using spatial autocorrelation and semivariance analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), the ecological risk of Haitan Island under different land-use situations was assessed, including the past (1990), present (2010) and future (2030), and the potential risk and its changing trend were analyzed. The results revealed that the ecological risk index showed obvious scale effect, with strong positive correlation within 3000 meters. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregations were predominant types in spatial distribution of ecological risk index. The ecological risk index showed significant isotropic characteristics, and its spatial distribution was consistent with Anselin Local Moran I (LISA) distribution during the same period. Dramatic spatial distribution change of each ecological risk area was found among 1990, 2010 and 2030, and the fluctuation trend and amplitude of different ecological risk areas were diverse. The low ecological risk area showed a rise-to-fall trend while the medium and high ecological risk areas showed a fall-to-rise trend. In the planning period, due to intensive anthropogenic disturbance, the high ecological risk area spread throughout the whole region. To reduce the ecological risk in land-use and maintain the regional ecological security, the following ecological risk control strategies could be adopted, i.e., optimizing the spatial pattern of land resources, protecting the key ecoregions and controlling the scale of construction land use.

Snacking patterns, diet quality, and cardiovascular risk factors in adults

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The relationship of snacking patterns on nutrient intake and cardiovascular risk factors in adults is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the associations of snacking patterns with nutrient intake, diet quality, and a selection of cardiovascular risk factors in adults participating in the ...

Impact of climate change on waterborne diseases.

PubMed

Funari, Enzo; Manganelli, Maura; Sinisi, Luciana

2012-01-01

Change in climate and water cycle will challenge water availability but it will also increase the exposure to unsafe water. Floods, droughts, heavy storms, changes in rain pattern, increase of temperature and sea level, they all show an increasing trend worldwide and will affect biological, physical and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. This paper is intended, through reviewing the available literature, to highlight environmental changes and critical situations caused by floods, drought and warmer temperature that will lead to an increase of exposure to water related pathogens, chemical hazards and cyanotoxins. The final aim is provide knowledge-based elements for more focused adaptation measures.

Global methane and nitrous oxide emissions from terrestrial ecosystems due to multiple environmental changes

DOE PAGES

Tian, Hanqin; Chen, Guangsheng; Lu, Chaoqun; ...

2015-03-16

Greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced climate change is among the most pressing sustainability challenges facing humanity today, posing serious risks for ecosystem health. Methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2O) are the two most important GHGs after carbon dioxide (CO 2), but their regional and global budgets are not well known. In this paper, we applied a process-based coupled biogeochemical model to concurrently estimate the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of CH 4 and N 2O fluxes as driven by multiple environmental changes, including climate variability, rising atmospheric CO 2, increasing nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone pollution, land use change, andmore » nitrogen fertilizer use.« less

Local cattle movements in response to ongoing bovine tuberculosis zonation and regulations in Michigan, USA.

PubMed

Grear, Daniel A; Kaneene, John B; Averill, James J; Webb, Colleen T

2014-06-01

Bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) is an ongoing management issue in the state of Michigan with eradication from livestock as the ultimate goal. Eradication has been a challenge owing to the presence of a wildlife reservoir; competing interests in managing the livestock and wildlife hosts; and many uncertainties in transmission dynamics of M. bovis. One of the cornerstones of the eradication effort has been to stop movement of infected cattle among farms by imposing strict pre-movement testing on cattle being moved within, into and out of the Modified Accredited Zone (MAZ) in northeastern Michigan. In addition to pre-movement tuberculosis testing, detailed information about the origin and destination premises of all movements within the MAZ has been recorded in Michigan. The aim of this study was to describe the farm-to-farm movements of cattle within the MAZ, report changes in the network of movements during a 6-year period when the MAZ was a constant size (2004-2009), and examine changes in cattle movement patterns when the MAZ was reduced from 11 to 5 counties in 2010. Non-slaughter cattle movement within the MAZ was characterized by predominantly local movements at a sub-county scale. Premises that shipped cattle were primarily senders or receivers, but rarely both. From 2004 to 2009, the number of cattle shipped, size of shipments, number of shipments and distance of shipments decreased; there was little change in the network patterns of interaction among individual premises; and interactions among all premises became more disconnected. After accounting for MAZ size, there were also no changes in cattle movement network patterns following the reduction of the MAZ in 2010. The movement of cattle was likely not a key risk factor in bTB spread among premises in the MAZ during the study period and the effect of zonation and movement regulations appeared to further reduce the risk of tuberculosis spread via cattle movements among farms in Michigan's MAZ. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dietary patterns and the risk of rhinitis in primary school children: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Liu, Xudong; Wong, Claudie Chiu-Yi; Yu, Ignatius T. S.; Zhang, Zilong; Tan, Lixing; Lau, Arthur P. S.; Lee, Albert; Yeoh, Eng Kiong; Lao, Xiang Qian

2017-01-01

This study was to investigate the association between dietary patterns and rhinitis in primary school children. 1,599 students without rhinitis at baseline survey were selected from a primary school children cohort. Information on food consumption, respiratory symptoms, and confounders was collected using questionnaires. Dietary patterns were defined using principal component analysis. Logistic regression was performed to calculate odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The incidence of rhinitis during 12 months follow-up was 21.2%. Three patterns were extracted and labeled as pattern I, II and III. Dietary pattern II which had higher factor loadings of legumes, butter, nuts and potatoes was associated with an increased risk of rhinitis (OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.01–1.87) when the highest tertile of pattern score was compared to the lowest tertile, after adjusted for confounders. Besides, every 1-unit increase of score of pattern II was also associated with an increased risk of rhinitis (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.05–1.35). Neither pattern I nor Pattern III was observed to be associated with risk of rhinitis. A diet with higher levels of consumption of legumes, butter, nuts and potatoes may increase the risk of allergic rhinitis in primary school children. PMID:28294150

LONGITUDINAL PATTERNS OF CARDIORESPIRATORY FITNESS PREDICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF HYPERTENSION AMONG MEN AND WOMEN

PubMed Central

Sui, Xuemei; Sarzynski, Mark A.; Lee, Duck-chul; Lavie, Carl J.; Zhang, Jiajia; Kokkinos, Peter F.; Payne, Jonathan; Blair, Steven N.

2016-01-01

Background Most of the existing literature has linked either a baseline cardiorespiratory fitness, or change between baseline and one follow-up measurement of cardiorespiratory fitness, to hypertension. The purpose of the study is to assess the association between longitudinal patterns of cardiorespiratory fitness changes with time and incident hypertension in adult men and women. Patients and Methods Participants were aged from 20 to 82 years, free of hypertension during the first three examinations, and received at least four preventive medical examinations at the Cooper Clinic in Dallas, TX, during 1971 – 2006. They were classified into one of five groups based on all of the measured cardiorespiratory fitness values (in metabolic equivalents) during maximal treadmill tests. Logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results Among a total of 4,932 participants (13% women), 1,954 developed hypertension. After controlling for baseline potential confounders, follow-up duration, and number of follow-up visits, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for hypertension were: 1.00 for decreasing group (referent), 0.64 (0.52–0.80) for increasing, 0.89 (0.70–1.12) for Bell-shape, 0.78 (0.62–0.98) for U-shape, and 0.83 (0.69–1.00) for inconsistent group. The general pattern of the association was consistent regardless of participants’ baseline cardiorespiratory fitness or body mass index levels. Conclusion An increasing pattern of cardiorespiratory fitness provides the lowest risk of hypertension in this middle-aged relatively healthy population. Identifying specific pattern(s) of cardiorespiratory fitness change may be important for determining associations with comorbidity such as hypertension. PMID:27986522

Dietary Patterns and Risk of Esophageal Cancer Mortality: The Japan Collaborative Cohort Study.

PubMed

Okada, Emiko; Nakamura, Koshi; Ukawa, Shigekazu; Sakata, Kiyomi; Date, Chigusa; Iso, Hiroyasu; Tamakoshi, Akiko

2016-01-01

Several case-control studies have associated dietary patterns with esophageal cancer (EC) risk, but prospective studies are scarce. We investigated dietary pattern and EC mortality risk associations by smoking status. Participants were 26,562 40- to 79-yr-old Japanese men, who enrolled in the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study between 1988 and 1990. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for EC mortality in nonsmokers and smokers were estimated using Cox proportional models. During follow-up (1988-2009), 132 participants died of EC. Using a baseline food frequency questionnaire and factor analysis, vegetable, animal, and dairy product food patterns were identified. EC risk decreased significantly with a higher factor score for the dairy product pattern (Ptrend = 0.042) and was more pronounced in smokers [multivariable HR (4th vs. 1st quartiles) = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.30, 1.09; Ptrend = 0.021]. Neither vegetable nor animal food patterns were significant overall; however, EC risk increased with a higher factor score for the animal food pattern in nonsmokers [multivariable HR (4th vs. 1st quartiles) = 6.01, 95% CI: 1.17, 30.88; Ptrend = 0.021], although the small number of events was a limitation. Our findings suggest a dairy product pattern may reduce EC risk in Japanese men, especially smokers.

Does Lipid Profile Affect Thrombin Generation During Ramadan Fasting in Patients With Cardiovascular Risks?

PubMed

Sassi, Mouna; Chakroun, Taher; Chouchène, Saoussen; Hellara, Ilhem; Boubaker, Hamdi; Grissa, Mohamed Habib; Khochtali, Ines; Hassine, Mohsen; Addad, Faouzi; Elalamy, Ismail; Nouira, Semir

2017-11-01

There is evidence that diet and variation in lipid metabolism can influence blood coagulation, but little is known about the effect of Ramadan fasting on plasmatic coagulation pattern. We investigated the effect of Ramadan fasting on thrombin generation (TG) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks, and we aimed to assess the effect of lipid profile on TG parameters. The study was conducted in 36 adults having at least 2 CVD risks and in 30 healthy controls. Coagulation pattern was assessed by both classical clotting times and TG test. A complete lipid profile was performed simultaneously. Patients were invited 2 times: 1 week before Ramadan and during the last week of the Ramadan. The TG parameters were not different in patients with CVD risks compared to healthy controls. Fasting had no effect on plasmatic coagulation parameters and on TG profile. Individual analysis of the mean rate index (MRI) of TG revealed 3 groups: group 1 with no modification of MRI, group 2 with a significant increase in MRI (81.64 nM/min vs 136.07 nM/min; P < .001), and group 3 with a significant decrease in MRI (125.27 nM/min vs 73.18 nM/min; P = .001). Only in group 2, a significant increase was observed in total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Changes in lipid profile during Ramadan fasting did not influence the global coagulation pattern in patients with CVD risks. Whereas, a significant increase in the propagation phase of TG was associated with a significant increase in cholesterol levels, which was not found with the other TG parameters.

Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: ecological buffering mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wichmann, Matthias C.; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Jeltsch, Florian; Grimm, Volker

2005-07-01

The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle ( Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted.

The Effect of Time in a New Job on Hospitalization Rates for Accidents and Injuries in the U.S. Navy, 1977-1983.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-05-01

HELMKANP ET AL. MAY 86 UNCLASSIFIED NAYHLTHRSCHC-6-19 F/0 519 NL urnn iLbu 2.5 ;111 i- L L. MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHARTNATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS-I96...which bring about a significant change In an Individual’s ongoing life pattern may cause psychological turmoil that can exacerbate the risk of...to an increased incidence of% hospitalization. Although one would expect the stress and psychological effect resulting from a job change to be

Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, A.

2012-05-01

Scientists and public administrators are devoting increasing attention to the Po River, in Italy, in view of concerns related to the impact of increasing urbanisation and exploitation of water resources. A better understanding of the hydrological regime of the river is necessary to improve water resources management and flood protection. In particular, the analysis of the effects of hydrological and climatic change is crucial for planning sustainable development and economic growth. An extremely interesting issue is to inspect to what extent river flows can be naturally affected by the occurrence of long periods of water abundance or scarcity, which can be erroneously interpreted as irreversible changes due to human impact. In fact, drought and flood periods alternatively occurred in the recent past in the form of long term cycles. This paper presents advanced graphical and analytical methods to gain a better understanding of the temporal distribution of the Po River discharge. In particular, we present an analysis of river flow variability and memory properties to better understand natural patterns and in particular long term changes, which may affect the future flood risk and availability of water resources.

Longitudinal Changes in Hip Strength and Range of Motion in Female Youth Soccer Players: Implications for ACL Injury, A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Nguyen, Anh-Dung; Zuk, Emma F; Baellow, Andrea L; Pfile, Kate R; DiStefano, Lindsay J; Boling, Michelle C

2017-09-01

Risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries in young female athletes increases with age, appearing to peak during maturation. Changes in hip muscle strength and range of motion (ROM) during this time may contribute to altered dynamic movement patterns that are known to increase risk of ACL injuries. Understanding the longitudinal changes in hip strength and ROM is needed to develop appropriate interventions to reduce the risk of ACL injuries. To examine the longitudinal changes in hip strength and ROM in female youth soccer players. Longitudinal descriptive study. Field setting. 14 female youth soccer athletes (14.1 ± 1.1 y, 165.8 ± 5.3 cm, 57.5 ± 9.9 kg) volunteered as part of a multiyear risk factor screening project. Clinical measures of hip strength and ROM were collected annually over 3 consecutive years. Passive hip internal rotation (IR), external rotation (ER), abduction (ABD), and adduction (ADD) ROM were measured with a digital inclinometer. Isometric hip ABD and extension (EXT) strength were evaluated using a hand-held dynamometer. Separate repeated-measures ANOVAs compared hip strength and ROM values across 3 consecutive years (P < .05). As youth female soccer players increased in age, there were no changes in normalized hip ABD (P = .830) or EXT strength (P = .062) across 3 consecutive years. Longitudinal changes in hip ROM were observed with increases in hip IR (P = .001) and ABD (P < .001), while hip ADD (P = .009) and ER (P < .001) decreased. Anatomical changes at the hip occur as youth female soccer players increase in age. While there are no changes in hip strength, there is an increase in hip IR and ABD ROM with a concomitant decrease in hip ER and ADD ROM. The resulting asymmetries in hip ROM may decrease the activation and force producing capabilities of the hip muscles during dynamic activities, contributing to altered lower extremity mechanics known to increase the risk of ACL injuries.

Patterns of top-down control in a seagrass ecosystem: could a roving apex predator induce a behaviour-mediated trophic cascade?

PubMed

Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Wirsing, Aaron; Dill, Lawrence M

2013-11-01

1. The loss of large-bodied herbivores and/or top predators has been associated with large-scale changes in ecosystems around the world, but there remain important questions regarding the contexts in which such changes are most likely and the mechanisms through which they occur, particularly in marine ecosystems. 2. We used long-term exclusion cages to examine the effects of large grazers (sea cows, Dugong dugon; sea turtles Chelonia mydas) on seagrass community structure, biomass and nutrient dynamics. Experiments were conducted in habitats with high risk of predation (interior of shallow banks) and lower risk (edges of banks) to elucidate whether nonconsumptive (risk) effects of tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier), a roving predator, structure herbivore impacts on seagrasses. 3. In lower-risk habitats, excluding large herbivores resulted in increased leaf length for Cymodocea angustata and Halodule uninervis. C. angustata shoot densities nearly tripled when released from herbivory, while H. uninervis nearly disappeared from exclusion cages over the course of the study. 4. We found no support for the hypothesis that grazing increases seagrass nutrient content. Instead, phosphorus content was higher in seagrasses within exclosures. This pattern is consistent with decreased light availability in the denser C. angustata canopies that formed in exclosures, and may indicate that competition for light led to the decrease in H. uninervis. 5. Impacts of large grazers were consistent with a behaviour-mediated trophic cascade (BMTC) initiated by tiger sharks and mediated by risk-sensitive foraging by large grazers. 6, Our results suggest that large-bodied grazers likely played important roles in seagrass ecosystem dynamics historically and that roving predators are capable of initiating a BMTC. Conservation efforts in coastal ecosystems must account for such interactions or risk unintended consequences. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

2017-02-01

The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience.

Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

PubMed Central

Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

2017-01-01

The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience. PMID:28148952

Climate change in metacommunities: dispersal gives double-sided effects on persistence.

PubMed

Eklöf, Anna; Kaneryd, Linda; Münger, Peter

2012-11-05

Climate change is increasingly affecting the structure and dynamics of ecological communities both at local and at regional scales, and this can be expected to have important consequences for their robustness and long-term persistence. The aim of the present work is to analyse how the spatial structure of the landscape and dispersal patterns of species (dispersal rate and average dispersal distance) affects metacommunity response to two disturbances: (i) increased mortality during dispersal and (ii) local species extinction. We analyse the disturbances both in isolation and in combination. Using a spatially and dynamically explicit metacommunity model, we find that the effect of dispersal on metacommunity persistence is two-sided: on the one hand, high dispersal significantly reduces the risk of bottom-up extinction cascades following the local removal of a species; on the other hand, when dispersal imposes a risk to the dispersing individuals, high dispersal increases extinction risks, especially when dispersal is global. Large-bodied species with long generation times at the highest trophic level are particularly vulnerable to extinction when dispersal involves a risk. This suggests that decreasing the mortality risk of dispersing individuals by improving the quality of the habitat matrix may greatly increase the robustness of metacommunities.

Stratification Pattern of Static and Scale-Invariant Dynamic Measures of Heartbeat Fluctuations Across Sleep Stages in Young and Elderly

PubMed Central

Schmitt, Daniel T.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

2010-01-01

Cardiac dynamics exhibit complex variability characterized by scale-invariant and nonlinear temporal organization related to the mechanism of neuroautonomic control, which changes with physiologic states and pathologic conditions. Changes in sleep regulation during sleep stages are also related to fluctuations in autonomic nervous activity. However, the interaction between sleep regulation and cardiac autonomic control remains not well understood. Even less is known how this interaction changes with age, as aspects of both cardiac dynamics and sleep regulation differ in healthy elderly compared to young subjects. We hypothesize that because of the neuroautonomic responsiveness in young subjects, fractal and nonlinear features of cardiac dynamics exhibit a pronounced stratification pattern across sleep stages, while in elderly these features will remain unchanged due to age-related loss of cardiac variability and decline of neuroautonomic responsiveness. We analyze the variability and the temporal fractal organization of heartbeat fluctuations across sleep stages in both young and elderly. We find that independent linear and nonlinear measures of cardiac control consistently exhibit the same ordering in their values across sleep stages, forming a robust stratification pattern. Despite changes in sleep architecture and reduced heart rate variability in elderly subjects, this stratification surprisingly does not break down with advanced age. Moreover, the difference between sleep stages for some linear, fractal, and nonlinear measures exceeds the difference between young and elderly, suggesting that the effect of sleep regulation on cardiac dynamics is significantly stronger than the effect of healthy aging. Quantifying changes in this stratification pattern may provide insights into how alterations in sleep regulation contribute to increased cardiac risk. PMID:19203874

Serum microRNA expression patterns that predict early treatment failure in prostate cancer patients.

PubMed

Singh, Prashant K; Preus, Leah; Hu, Qiang; Yan, Li; Long, Mark D; Morrison, Carl D; Nesline, Mary; Johnson, Candace S; Koochekpour, Shahriar; Kohli, Manish; Liu, Song; Trump, Donald L; Sucheston-Campbell, Lara E; Campbell, Moray J

2014-02-15

We aimed to identify microRNA (miRNA) expression patterns in the serum of prostate cancer (CaP) patients that predict the risk of early treatment failure following radical prostatectomy (RP). Microarray and Q-RT-PCR analyses identified 43 miRNAs as differentiating disease stages within 14 prostate cell lines and reflectedpublically available patient data. 34 of these miRNA were detectable in the serum of CaP patients. Association with time to biochemical progression was examined in a cohort of CaP patients following RP. A greater than two-fold increase in hazard of biochemical progression associated with altered expression of miR-103, miR-125b and miR-222 (p<.0008) in the serum of CaP patients. Prediction models based on penalized regression analyses showed that the levels of the miRNAs and PSA together were better at detecting false positives than models without miRNAs, for similar level of sensitivity. Analyses of publically available data revealed significant and reciprocal relationships between changes in CpG methylation and miRNA expression patterns suggesting a role for CpG methylation to regulate miRNA. Exploratory validation supported roles for miR-222 and miR-125b to predict progression risk in CaP. The current study established that expression patterns of serum-detectable miRNAs taken at the time of RP are prognostic for men who are at risk of experiencing subsequent early biochemical progression. These non-invasive approaches could be used to augment treatment decisions.

Asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White Pattern ECG in USAF Aviators.

PubMed

Davenport, Eddie D; Rupp, Karen A N; Palileo, Edwin; Haynes, Jared

2017-01-01

Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) pattern is occasionally found in asymptomatic aviators during routine ECGs. Aeromedical concerns regarding WPW pattern include risk of dysrhythmia or sudden cardiac death (SCD), thus affecting the safety of flight. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and outcomes of aviators with asymptomatic WPW pattern and assess for risk factors that contribute to progression to dysrhythmia or symptoms. The U.S. Air Force (USAF) ECG library database containing over 1.2 million ECGs collected over the past 68 yr was used to identify 638 individual aviators with WPW pattern. Demographic, medical history, and outcome data were obtained by medical record review. Aviators who developed high risk features defined as symptoms, arrhythmia, or ablation of a high risk pathway, were compared to those who remained asymptomatic. Prevalence of WPW pattern was 0.30% among all USAF aviators. Of the 638 individuals, 64 (10%) progressed to the combined endpoint of SCD, arrhythmia, and/or ablation of a high risk pathway over 6868 patient years, with average follow-up of 10.5 yr. There were two sudden cardiac deaths (0.3%). Annual risk of possible sudden incapacitation was 0.95% and of SCD 0.03%. Those that progressed to high risk were significantly younger, had lower diastolic blood pressure, lower total cholesterol, and better physical fitness testing scores. WPW pattern on ECG found in asymptomatic aviators confers < 1% annual risk of arrhythmia or incapacitating events with the highest risk in the younger, healthier, and most fit populations.Davenport ED, Rupp KAN, Palileo E, Haynes J. Asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White pattern ECG in USAF aviators. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(1):56-60.

THE PATTERN OF LONGITUDINAL CHANGE IN SERUM CREATININE AND NINETY-DAY MORTALITY AFTER MAJOR SURGERY

PubMed Central

Hobson, Charles E; Pardalos, Panos

2016-01-01

Objective Calculate mortality risk that accounts for both severity and recovery of postoperative kidney dysfunction using the pattern of longitudinal change in creatinine. Summary Background Data Although the importance of renal recovery after acute kidney injury (AKI) is increasingly recognized, the complex association that accounts for longitudinal creatinine changes and mortality is not fully described. Methods We used routinely collected clinical information for 46,299 adult patients undergoing major surgery to develop a multivariable probabilistic model optimized for non-linearity of serum creatinine time series that calculates the risk function for ninety-day mortality. We performed a 70/30 cross validation analysis to assess the accuracy of the model. Results All creatinine time series exhibited nonlinear risk function in relation to ninety-day mortality and their addition to other clinical factors improved the model discrimination. For any given severity of AKI, patients with complete renal recovery, as manifested by the return of the discharge creatinine to the baseline value, experienced a significant decrease in the odds of dying within ninety days of admission compared to patients with partial recovery. Yet, for any severity of AKI even complete renal recovery did not entirely mitigate the increased odds of dying as patients with mild AKI and complete renal recovery still had significantly increased odds for dying compared to patients without AKI (odds ratio 1,48 (95% confidence interval 1.30-1.68). Conclusions We demonstrate the nonlinear relationship between both severity and recovery of renal dysfunction and ninety-day mortality after major surgery. We have developed an easily applicable computer algorithm that calculates this complex relationship. PMID:26181482

Functional consequences of inadequate sleep in adolescents: a systematic review.

PubMed

Shochat, Tamar; Cohen-Zion, Mairav; Tzischinsky, Orna

2014-02-01

During adolescence, changes in sleep patterns due to biological and environmental factors are well documented. Later bedtimes and inadequate sleep, i.e., short and disrupted sleep patterns, insomnia and daytime sleepiness, have become increasingly common. Accumulating evidence suggests that sleep plays a crucial role in healthy adolescent development. This review systematically explores descriptive evidence, based on prospective and cross sectional investigations, indicating that inadequate sleep is associated with negative outcomes in several areas of health and functioning, including somatic and psychosocial health, school performance and risk taking behavior. Findings highlight the need for longitudinal investigations aimed at establishing the underpinnings of these associations and for developing and implementing interventions designed to achieve healthier and more balanced sleep patterns in the adolescent population. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Empirically derived dietary patterns and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in a large prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Velie, Ellen M; Schairer, Catherine; Flood, Andrew; He, Jian-Ping; Khattree, Ravindra; Schatzkin, Arthur

2005-12-01

Inconsistent associations have been reported between diet and breast cancer. We prospectively examined the association between dietary patterns and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in a US-wide cohort study. Data were analyzed from 40 559 women who completed a self-administered 61-item Block food-frequency questionnaire in the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project, 1987-1998; 1868 of those women developed breast cancer. Dietary patterns were defined by using principal components factor analysis. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to assess breast cancer risk. Three major dietary patterns emerged: vegetable-fish/poultry-fruit, beef/pork-starch, and traditional southern. The vegetable-fish/poultry-fruit pattern was associated with higher education than were the other patterns, but was similar in nutrient intake to the traditional southern pattern. After adjustment for confounders, there was no significant association between the vegetable-fish/poultry-fruit and beef/pork-starch patterns and breast cancer. The traditional southern pattern, however, was associated with a nonsignificantly reduced breast cancer risk among all cases (in situ and invasive) that was significant for invasive breast cancer (relative hazard = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.65, 0.95; P for trend = 0.003). This diet was also associated with a reduced risk in women without a family history of breast cancer (P = 0.05), who were underweight or normal weight [body mass index (in kg/m(2)) < 25; P = 0.02], or who had tumors positive for estrogen receptor (P = 0.01) or progesterone receptor (P = 0.003). Foods in the traditional southern pattern associated with reduced breast cancer risk were legumes, low mayonnaise-salad dressing intake, and possibly cabbage. The traditional southern diet or its components are associated with a reduced risk of invasive breast cancer in postmenopausal women.

Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Hanqin; Chen, Guangsheng; Lu, Chaoqun

Greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced climate change is among the most pressing sustainability challenges facing humanity today, posing serious risks for ecosystem health. Methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2O) are the two most important GHGs after carbon dioxide (CO 2), but their regional and global budgets are not well known. In this paper, we applied a process-based coupled biogeochemical model to concurrently estimate the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of CH 4 and N 2O fluxes as driven by multiple environmental changes, including climate variability, rising atmospheric CO 2, increasing nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone pollution, land use change, andmore » nitrogen fertilizer use.« less

17β-Estradiol Induced Effects on Anterior Cruciate Ligament Laxness and Neuromuscular Activation Patterns in Female Runners.

PubMed

Khowailed, Iman Akef; Petrofsky, Jerrold; Lohman, Everett; Daher, Noha; Mohamed, Olfat

2015-08-01

We investigate the effects of 17β-Estradiol across phases of menstrual cycle on the laxness of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and the neuromuscular control patterns around the knee joint in female runners. Twelve healthy female runners who reported normal menstrual cycles for the previous 6 months were tested twice across one complete menstrual cycle for serum levels of 17β-estradiol, and knee joint laxity (KJL). Electromyographic (EMG) activity of the quadriceps and hamstrings muscles was also recorded during running on a treadmill. The changes in the EMG activity, KJL, and hormonal concentrations were recorded for each subject during the follicular and the ovulatory phases across the menstrual cycle. An observed increase in KJL in response to peak estradiol during the ovulatory phase was associated with increased preactivity of the hamstring muscle before foot impact (p<0.001). A consistent pattern was also observed in the firing of the quadriceps muscle recruitment pattern throughout the follicular phase associated with decreased hamstring recruitment pattern during weight acceptance phase of running (p=0.02). Additionally, a low ratio of medial to lateral quadriceps recruitment was associated with a significant reduction of the quadriceps to hamstring co-contraction ratio during the follicular phase. Changes in KJL during the menstrual cycle in response to 17β-estradiol fluctuations changes the neuromuscular control around the knee during running. Female runners utilize different neuromuscular control strategies during different phases of the menstrual cycle, which may contribute to increased ACL injury risk.

Orbitofrontal sulcogyral patterns are related to temperamental risk for psychopathology.

PubMed

Whittle, Sarah; Bartholomeusz, Cali; Yücel, Murat; Dennison, Meg; Vijayakumar, Nandita; Allen, Nicholas B

2014-02-01

There are marked individual differences in the pattern of cortical (sulcogyral) folding in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), and there is a growing literature suggesting that these individual differences are associated with risk for psychotic disorders. To date, however, no study has investigated whether OFC folding patterns are associated with broader risk factors relevant to a range of psychopathology. This study helps address this knowledge gap by examining whether OFC sulcogyral folding patterns are associated with putative risk factors, specifically affective temperament and psychiatric symptoms, in a large community sample (N = 152) of adolescents. Results showed that the most common pattern of folding ('Type I', marked by discontinuity of the medial orbital sulcus and continuity of the lateral orbital sulcus) was associated with low levels of Surgency, high levels of Negative Affectivity (in girls) and higher depressive symptoms. This pattern was also associated with reduced thickness of OFC gray matter. Overall, the findings, combined with previous work, suggest some specificity of neurodevelopmental risk for different types of psychopathology. Thus, these results have the potential to inform the early identification of at-risk individuals.

Cancer risk diversity in non-western migrants to Europe: An overview of the literature.

PubMed

Arnold, Melina; Razum, Oliver; Coebergh, Jan-Willem

2010-09-01

Cancer risk varies geographically and across ethnic groups that can be monitored in cancer control to respond to observed trends as well as ensure appropriate health care. The study of cancer risk in immigrant populations has great potential to contribute new insights into aetiology, diagnosis and treatment of cancer. Disparities in cancer risk patterns between immigrant and autochthonous populations have been reported many times, but up to now studies have been heterogeneous and may be discordant in their findings. The aim of this overview was to compile and compare studies on cancer occurrence in migrant populations from non-western countries residing in Western Europe in order to reflect current knowledge in this field and to appeal for further research and culturally sensitive prevention strategies. We included 37 studies published in the English language between 1990 and April 2010 focussing on cancer in adult migrants from non-western countries, living in the industrialised countries of the European Union. Migrants were defined based on their country of birth, ethnicity and name-based approaches. We conducted a between-country comparison of age-adjusted cancer incidence and mortality in immigrant populations with those in autochthonous populations. Across the board migrants from non-western countries showed a more favourable all-cancer morbidity and mortality compared with native populations of European host countries, but with considerable site-specific risk diversity: Migrants from non-western countries were more prone to cancers that are related to infections experienced in early life, such as liver, cervical and stomach cancer. In contrast, migrants of non-western origin were less likely to suffer from cancers related to a western lifestyle, e.g. colorectal, breast and prostate cancer. Confirming the great cancer risk diversity in non-western migrants in and between different European countries, this overview reaffirms the importance of exposures experienced during life course (before, during and after migration) for carcinogenesis. Culturally sensitive cancer prevention programmes should focus on individual risk patterns and specific health care needs. Therefore, continuously changing environments and subsequently changing risks in both migrant and autochthonous populations need to be observed carefully in the future. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Growth Models of Dyadic Synchrony and Mother-Child Vagal Tone in the Context of Parenting At-Risk

PubMed Central

Giuliano, Ryan J.; Skowron, Elizabeth A.; Berkman, Elliot T.

2015-01-01

We used multilevel modeling to examine dynamic changes in respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) and observer-coded interactive synchrony for mother-child dyads engaged in a laboratory interaction, to characterize parenting-at-risk. Seventy-nine preschooler-mother dyads including a subset with documented child maltreatment (CM; n=43) were observed completing a joint puzzle task while physiological measures were recorded. Dyads led by CM mothers showed decreases in positive synchrony over time, whereas no variation was observed in non-CM dyads. Growth models of maternal RSA indicated that mothers who maintained high levels of positive interactive synchrony with their child evidenced greater RSA reactivity, characterized by an initial withdrawal followed by augmentation as the task progressed, after accounting for CM group status. These results help to clarify patterns of RSA responding in the context of caregiver-child interactions, and demonstrate the importance of modeling dynamic changes in physiology over time in order to better understanding biological correlates of parenting-at-risk. PMID:25542759

Impact of socio-emotional context, brain development, and pubertal maturation on adolescent risk-taking.

PubMed

Smith, Ashley R; Chein, Jason; Steinberg, Laurence

2013-07-01

While there is little doubt that risk-taking is generally more prevalent during adolescence than before or after, the underlying causes of this pattern of age differences have long been investigated and debated. One longstanding popular notion is the belief that risky and reckless behavior in adolescence is tied to the hormonal changes of puberty. However, the interactions between pubertal maturation and adolescent decision making remain largely understudied. In the current review, we discuss changes in decision making during adolescence, focusing on the asynchronous development of the affective, reward-focused processing system and the deliberative, reasoned processing system. As discussed, differential maturation in the structure and function of brain systems associated with these systems leaves adolescents particularly vulnerable to socio-emotional influences and risk-taking behaviors. We argue that this asynchrony may be partially linked to pubertal influences on development and specifically on the maturation of the affective, reward-focused processing system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heart Health...Your Choice. 11-14 Year Olds.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Inst. (DHHS/NIH), Bethesda, MD.

The purpose of this illustrated booklet is to teach 11-14 year old students that all healthy Americans, 2 years of age or older, should eat in a way that is low in saturated fat and cholesterol to help reduce the risk of heart disease. The guide is designed to promote changes in eating patterns, to show children how to switch to good eating…

Eating With Your Heart In Mind: 7 to 10 Year Olds.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Inst. (DHHS/NIH), Bethesda, MD.

The purpose of this brightly illustrated guide is to teach 7-10 year old children that all healthy Americans, 2 years of age or older, should eat in a way that is low in saturated fat and cholesterol so as to help reduce the risk of heart disease. The theme reflected throughout the manual is that changes in eating patterns help lower blood…

Hearty Habits. Don't Eat Your Heart Out. 15-18 Year Olds.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Inst. (DHHS/NIH), Bethesda, MD.

The purpose of this illustrated guide is to teach 15-18 year old students that all healthy Americans, 2 years of age or older, should eat in a way that is low in saturated fat and cholesterol to help reduce the risk of heart disease. The theme reflected throughout the manual is that changes in eating patterns help lower blood cholesterol levels…

[Scale effect of Li-Xiang Railway construction impact on landscape pattern and its ecological risk].

PubMed

Wang, De-zhi; Qiu, Peng-hua; Fang, Yuan-min

2015-08-01

As a large corridor project, plateau railway has multiple points and passes various sensitive environments along the railway. The determination of the scope of impact on ecological environment from railway construction is often controversial in ecological impact assessment work. Taking the Tangbu-Jiantang section of Li-Xiang Railway as study object, and using present land use map (1:10000) in 2012 and DEM as data sources, corridor cutting degree index ( CCI) and cumulative effect index of corridor (CCEI) were established by topology, buffer zone and landscape metrics methods. Besides, the ecological risk index used for railway construction was improved. By quantitative analysis of characteristics of the spatio-temporal change of landscape pattern and its evolution style at different spatial scales before and after railway construction, the most appropriate evaluation scale of the railway was obtained. Then the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variation of ecological risk within this scale before and after railway construction were analyzed. The results indicated that the cutting model and degree of railway corridor to various landscape types could be effectively reflected by CCI, and the exposure and harm relations between risk sources and risk receptors of railway can be measured by CCEI. After the railway construction, the railway corridor would cause a great deal of middle cutting effect on the landscape along the railroad, which would influence wood land and grassland landscape most greatly, while would cause less effect of edge cutting and internal cutting. Landscape indices within the 600 m buffer zone demonstrated the most obvious scale effect, therefore, the 600 m zone of the railway was set as the most suitable range of ecological impact assessment. Before railway construction, the low ecological risk level covered the biggest part of the 600 m assessment zone. However, after the railway construction, the ecological risk increased significantly, and the most part of the study area was at the moderate ecological risk level. The ecological risk presented ring-shaped and multi-kernel patterns, and was lower in the southern part than in the northern part of the study area.

Initiation Patterns of Statins in the 2 Years After Release of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Cholesterol Management Guideline in a Large US Health Plan.

PubMed

Olufade, Temitope; Zhou, Siting; Anzalone, Deborah; Kern, David M; Tunceli, Ozgur; Cziraky, Mark J; Willey, Vincent J

2017-05-04

The purpose of this study was to characterize changes in statin utilization patterns in patients newly initiated on therapy in the 2 years following the release of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) cholesterol management guideline in a large US health plan population. This retrospective, observational study used administrative medical and pharmacy claims data to identify patients newly initiated on statin therapy over 4 quarters prior to and 8 quarters following the release of the guideline (average N/quarter=3596). Patients were divided into the 4 statin benefit groups (SBGs) based on risk factors and laboratory lipid levels as defined in the guideline: SBG1 (with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease [ASCVD]; N=1046/quarter), SBG2 (without ASCVD, with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥190 mg/dL; N=454/quarter), SBG3 (without ASCVD, aged 40-75 years, with diabetes mellitus, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol 70-189 mg/dL; N=1391/quarter), SBG4 (no ASCVD or diabetes mellitus, age 40-75 years, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol 70-189 mg/dL, estimated 10-year ASCVD risk of ≥7.5%; N=705/quarter). Demographic variables, statin utilization patterns, lipid levels, and comorbidities were analyzed for pre- and postguideline periods. Postguideline, gradually increased high-intensity statin initiation occurred in SBG1, SBG2, and in SBG3 patients with 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%. Moderate- to high-intensity statin initiation gradually increased among SBG4 patients. Recommended-intensity statin choice changed to a greater degree among patients treated by specialty care physicians. Regarding sex, target-intensity statin initiation was lower in women in all groups before and after guideline release. Prescriber implementation of the guideline recommendations has gradually increased, with the most marked change in the increased initiation of high-intensity statins in patients with ASCVD and in those treated by a specialist. © 2017 The Authors, AstraZeneca, and HealthCore. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Differences among Job Positions Related to Communication Errors at Construction Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Akiko; Ishida, Toshiro

In a previous study, we classified the communicatio n errors at construction sites as faulty intention and message pattern, inadequate channel pattern, and faulty comprehension pattern. This study seeks to evaluate the degree of risk of communication errors and to investigate differences among people in various job positions in perception of communication error risk . Questionnaires based on the previous study were a dministered to construction workers (n=811; 149 adminis trators, 208 foremen and 454 workers). Administrators evaluated all patterns of communication error risk equally. However, foremen and workers evaluated communication error risk differently in each pattern. The common contributing factors to all patterns wer e inadequate arrangements before work and inadequate confirmation. Some factors were common among patterns but other factors were particular to a specific pattern. To help prevent future accidents at construction sites, administrators should understand how people in various job positions perceive communication errors and propose human factors measures to prevent such errors.

Assessment of Alzheimer's disease risk with functional magnetic resonance imaging: an arterial spin labeling study.

PubMed

Bangen, Katherine J; Restom, Khaled; Liu, Thomas T; Wierenga, Christina E; Jak, Amy J; Salmon, David P; Bondi, Mark W

2012-01-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) of older adults at risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD) by virtue of their cognitive (i.e., mild cognitive impairment [MCI]) and/or genetic (i.e., apolipoprotein E [APOE] ε4 allele) status demonstrate divergent brain response patterns during memory encoding across studies. Using arterial spin labeling MRI, we examined the influence of AD risk on resting cerebral blood flow (CBF) as well as the CBF and blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signal response to memory encoding in the medial temporal lobes (MTL) in 45 older adults (29 cognitively normal [14 APOE ε4 carriers and 15 noncarriers]; 16 MCI [8 APOE ε4 carriers, 8 noncarriers]). Risk groups were comparable in terms of mean age, years of education, gender distribution, and vascular risk burden. Individuals at genetic risk for AD by virtue of the APOE ε4 allele demonstrated increased MTL resting state CBF relative to ε4 noncarriers, whereas individuals characterized as MCI showed decreased MTL resting state CBF relative to their cognitively normal peers. For percent change CBF, there was a trend toward a cognitive status by genotype interaction. In the cognitively normal group, there was no difference in percent change CBF based on APOE genotype. In contrast, in the MCI group, APOE ε4 carriers demonstrated significantly greater percent change in CBF relative to ε4 noncarriers. No group differences were found for BOLD response. Findings suggest that abnormal resting state CBF and CBF response to memory encoding may be early indicators of brain dysfunction in individuals at risk for developing AD.

Patterns of cognitive dissonance-reducing beliefs among smokers: a longitudinal analysis from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey.

PubMed

Fotuhi, Omid; Fong, Geoffrey T; Zanna, Mark P; Borland, Ron; Yong, Hua-Hie; Cummings, K Michael

2013-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to assess whether smokers adjust their beliefs in a pattern that is consistent with Cognitive Dissonance Theory. This is accomplished by examining the longitudinal pattern of belief change among smokers as their smoking behaviours change. A telephone survey was conducted of nationally representative samples of adult smokers from Canada, the USA, the UK and Australia from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey. Smokers were followed across three waves (October 2002 to December 2004), during which they were asked to report on their smoking-related beliefs and their quitting behaviour. Smokers with no history of quitting across the three waves exhibited the highest levels of rationalisations for smoking. When smokers quit smoking, they reported having fewer rationalisations for smoking compared with when they had previously been smoking. However, among those who attempted to quit but then relapsed, there was once again a renewed tendency to rationalise their smoking. This rebound in the use of rationalisations was higher for functional beliefs than for risk-minimising beliefs, as predicted by social psychological theory. Smokers are motivated to rationalise their behaviour through the endorsement of more positive beliefs about smoking, and these beliefs change systematically with changes in smoking status. More work is needed to determine if this cognitive dissonance-reducing function has an inhibiting effect on any subsequent intentions to quit.

Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN Red List criteria.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Mahony, Michael; Hines, Harry; Elith, Jane; Regan, Tracey J; Baumgartner, John B; Hunter, David; Heard, Geoffrey W; Mitchell, Nicola J; Parris, Kirsten M; Penman, Trent; Scheele, Ben; Simpson, Christopher C; Tingley, Reid; Tracy, Christopher R; West, Matt; Akçakaya, H Resit

2014-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow-acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short-lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Ocean acidification risk assessment for Alaska's fishery sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathis, J. T.; Cooley, S. R.; Lucey, N.; Colt, S.; Ekstrom, J.; Hurst, T.; Hauri, C.; Evans, W.; Cross, J. N.; Feely, R. A.

2015-08-01

The highly productive fisheries of Alaska are located in seas projected to experience strong global change, including rapid transitions in temperature and ocean acidification-driven changes in pH and other chemical parameters. Many of the marine organisms that are most intensely affected by ocean acidification (OA) contribute substantially to the state's commercial fisheries and traditional subsistence way of life. Prior studies of OA's potential impacts on human communities have focused only on possible direct economic losses from specific scenarios of human dependence on commercial harvests and damages to marine species. However, other economic and social impacts, such as changes in food security or livelihoods, are also likely to result from climate change. This study evaluates patterns of dependence on marine resources within Alaska that could be negatively impacted by OA and current community characteristics to assess the potential risk to the fishery sector from OA. Here, we used a risk assessment framework based on one developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to analyze earth-system global ocean model hindcasts and projections of ocean chemistry, fisheries harvest data, and demographic information. The fisheries examined were: shellfish, salmon and other finfish. The final index incorporates all of these data to compare overall risk among Alaska's federally designated census areas. The analysis showed that regions in southeast and southwest Alaska that are highly reliant on fishery harvests and have relatively lower incomes and employment alternatives likely face the highest risk from OA. Although this study is an intermediate step toward our full understanding, the results presented here show that OA merits consideration in policy planning, as it may represent another challenge to Alaskan communities, some of which are already under acute socio-economic strains.

Test-retest assessment of functional near-infrared spectroscopy to measure risk decision making in young adults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lin; Lin, Zijing; Cazzell, Mary; Liu, Hanli

2013-03-01

Investigation of the reliability and reproducibility of the hemodynamic response is important for interpretation and understanding of the results of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). It measures optical signals absorbed by the brain tissue and reflects the neuronal activities indirectly. Here we described an fNIRS study measured in the prefrontal region (Brodman area 9, 10, part of 46)to examine the risk decision-making behavior in nine young adults. The Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) is widely used to test the level of risk taking ability in the field of psychology. BART was a protocol utilized in this study to evoke a risk-taking environment with a gambling-like balloon game in each subject. Specifically, we recorded the brain oxygenated-hemoglobin (HbO) and deoxygenated-hemoglobin (HHb) changes during the two repeated measurements within a time interval of 3 weeks. The results demonstrate that the changes in HbO2 amplitudes have high reliability at the group level, and that the spatial patterns of the tomographic images have high reproducibility in size and a moderate degree of overlap. Overall, this study confirms that the hemodynamic response to risk decision-making (i.e., BART) seen by fNIRS is highly reliable and reproducible.

A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

2016-10-07

Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide.

A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

2016-01-01

Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide. PMID:27713530

Patterns of Health-Risk Behavior among Japanese High School Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Takakura, Minoru; Nagayama, Tomoko; Sakihara, Seizo; Willcox, Craig

2001-01-01

Surveyed Japanese high school students' health risk behavior patterns, examining clustering and accumulation of health risk behaviors. Physical inactivity and alcohol use were the most common risk behaviors. Prevalence rates for most risk behaviors varied by demographic variables. Smoking, drinking, and sexual intercourse clustered among both…

Patterns of adolescent physical activity and dietary behaviours

PubMed Central

Pearson, Natalie; Atkin, Andrew J; Biddle, Stuart JH; Gorely, Trish; Edwardson, Charlotte

2009-01-01

Background The potential synergistic effects of multiple dietary and physical activity behaviours on the risk of chronic conditions and health outcomes is a key issue for public health. This study examined the prevalence and clustering patterns of multiple health behaviours among a sample of adolescents in the UK. Methods Cross-sectional survey of 176 adolescents aged 12–16 years (49% boys). Adolescents wore accelerometers for seven days and completed a questionnaire assessing fruit, vegetable, and breakfast consumption. The prevalence of adolescents meeting the physical activity (≥ 60 minutes moderate-to-vigorous physical activity/day), fruit and vegetable (≥ 5 portions of FV per day) and breakfast recommendations (eating breakfast on ≥ 5 days per week), and clustering patterns of these health behaviours are described. Results Boys were more active than girls (p < 0.001) and younger adolescents were more active than older adolescents (p < 0.01). Boys ate breakfast on more days per week than girls (p < 0.01) and older adolescents ate more fruit and vegetables than younger adolescents (p < 0.01). Almost 54% of adolescents had multiple risk behaviours and only 6% achieved all three of the recommendations. Girls had significantly more risk factors than boys (p < 0.01). For adolescents with two risk behaviours, the most prevalent cluster was formed by not meeting the physical activity and fruit and vegetable recommendations. Conclusion Many adolescents fail to meet multiple diet and physical activity recommendations, highlighting that physical activity and dietary behaviours do not occur in isolation. Future research should investigate how best to achieve multiple health behaviour change in adolescent boys and girls. PMID:19624822

Cohort Study of ECG Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Trajectories: Ethnic Disparities, Associations With Cardiovascular Outcomes, and Clinical Utility.

PubMed

Iribarren, Carlos; Round, Alfred D; Lu, Meng; Okin, Peter M; McNulty, Edward J

2017-10-05

ECG left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is a well-known predictor of cardiovascular disease. However, no prior study has characterized patterns of presence/absence of ECG LVH ("ECG LVH trajectories") across the adult lifespan in both sexes and across ethnicities. We examined: (1) correlates of ECG LVH trajectories; (2) the association of ECG LVH trajectories with incident coronary heart disease, transient ischemic attack, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and heart failure; and (3) reclassification of cardiovascular disease risk using ECG LVH trajectories. We performed a cohort study among 75 412 men and 107 954 women in the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program who had available longitudinal exposures of ECG LVH and covariates, followed for a median of 4.8 (range <1-9.3) years. ECG LVH was measured by Cornell voltage-duration product. Adverse trajectories of ECG LVH (persistent, new development, or variable pattern) were more common among blacks and Native American men and were independently related to incident cardiovascular disease with hazard ratios ranging from 1.2 for ECG LVH variable pattern and transient ischemic attack in women to 2.8 for persistent ECG LVH and heart failure in men. ECG LVH trajectories reclassified 4% and 7% of men and women with intermediate coronary heart disease risk, respectively. ECG LVH trajectories were significant indicators of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure risk, independently of level and change in cardiovascular disease risk factors, and may have clinical utility. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Changing pattern in the risk factors for diabetes in young adults from the rural area of Baluchistan.

PubMed

Fawwad, Asher; Alvi, Syed Faraz Danish; Basit, Abdul; Ahmed, Khursheed; Ahmedani, Muhammad Yakoob; Hakeem, Rubina

2013-09-01

To observe changing pattern in the risk factors for diabetes as overweight, obesity, smoking, hypertension and family history of diabetes in young adults in the rural area of Baluchistan. A community based observational study was carried out in the rural area of Baluchistan by conducting two surveys, in the years 2002 and 2009 respectively. The survey was further subdivided into two groups i.e. young adults (15-25 years) and adults (> or = 25 years). In this study, data of young adults was analyzed. Data obtained in 2002 was also analyzed according to the current guidelines and compared with 2009 survey. A total of 230 and 197 young adults participated in 2002 and 2009 surveys respectively. Obesity increased significantly (p < 0.001) from 20 (10.15%) young adults in the year 2002 to 64 (27.82%) in 2009. Similarly 15 (7.61%) young adults were overweight in 2002 which increased to 24 (10.43%) in 2009 (p < 0.317). Smoking increased from 8 (4.06%) to 49 (21.3%) in 2009 (p < 0.001). Family history of diabetes mellitus also showed a significant increase (p < 0.005). Hypertension increased from 13 (6.6%) young adults in 2002 survey to 17 (7.39%) in 2009, the increase was not statistically significant (p < 0.749). The present study showed that risk factors for diabetes such as overweight, obesity, smoking, hypertension and family history of diabetes increased over time in the young adults of rural Baluchistan.

Comparison of 3 Methods for Identifying Dietary Patterns Associated With Risk of Disease

PubMed Central

DiBello, Julia R.; Kraft, Peter; McGarvey, Stephen T.; Goldberg, Robert; Campos, Hannia

2008-01-01

Reduced rank regression and partial least-squares regression (PLS) are proposed alternatives to principal component analysis (PCA). Using all 3 methods, the authors derived dietary patterns in Costa Rican data collected on 3,574 cases and controls in 1994–2004 and related the resulting patterns to risk of first incident myocardial infarction. Four dietary patterns associated with myocardial infarction were identified. Factor 1, characterized by high intakes of lean chicken, vegetables, fruit, and polyunsaturated oil, was generated by all 3 dietary pattern methods and was associated with a significantly decreased adjusted risk of myocardial infarction (28%–46%, depending on the method used). PCA and PLS also each yielded a pattern associated with a significantly decreased risk of myocardial infarction (31% and 23%, respectively); this pattern was characterized by moderate intake of alcohol and polyunsaturated oil and low intake of high-fat dairy products. The fourth factor derived from PCA was significantly associated with a 38% increased risk of myocardial infarction and was characterized by high intakes of coffee and palm oil. Contrary to previous studies, the authors found PCA and PLS to produce more patterns associated with cardiovascular disease than reduced rank regression. The most effective method for deriving dietary patterns related to disease may vary depending on the study goals. PMID:18945692

Dietary pattern classifications with nutrient intake and health-risk factors in Korean men.

PubMed

Lee, Ji Eun; Kim, Jung-Hyun; Son, Say Jin; Ahn, Younjhin; Lee, Juyoung; Park, Chan; Lee, Lilha; Erickson, Kent L; Jung, In-Kyung

2011-01-01

This study was performed to identify dietary patterns in Korean men and to determine the associations among dietary patterns, nutrient intake, and health-risk factors. Using baseline data from the Korean Health and Genome Study, dietary patterns were identified using factor analysis of data from a validated food-frequency questionnaire, and associations between these dietary patterns and health-risk factors were analyzed. Three dietary patterns were identified: 1) the "animal-food" pattern (greater intake of meats, fish, and dairy products), 2) the "rice-vegetable" pattern (greater intake of rice, tofu, kimchi, soybean paste, vegetables, and seaweed), and 3) the "noodle-bread" pattern (greater intake of instant noodles, Chinese noodles, and bread). The animal-food pattern (preferred by younger people with higher income and education levels) had a positive correlation with obesity and hypercholesterolemia, whereas the rice-vegetable pattern (preferred by older people with lower income and educational levels) was positively associated with hypertension. The noodle-bread pattern (also preferred by younger people with higher income and education levels) had a positive association with abdominal obesity and hypercholesterolemia. This study identifies three unique dietary patterns in Korean men, which are independently associated with certain health-risk factors. The rice-vegetable dietary pattern, modified for a low sodium intake, might be a healthy dietary pattern for Korean men. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie L

2017-09-01

Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.

Climate Change and River Ecosystems: Protection and Adaptation Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Margaret A.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Poff, N. Leroy; Postel, Sandra L.; Richter, Brian; Warner, Richard

2009-12-01

Rivers provide a special suite of goods and services valued highly by the public that are inextricably linked to their flow dynamics and the interaction of flow with the landscape. Yet most rivers are within watersheds that are stressed to some extent by human activities including development, dams, or extractive uses. Climate change will add to and magnify risks that are already present through its potential to alter rainfall, temperature, runoff patterns, and to disrupt biological communities and sever ecological linkages. We provide an overview of the predicted impacts based on published studies to date, discuss both reactive and proactive management responses, and outline six categories of management actions that will contribute substantially to the protection of valuable river assets. To be effective, management must be place-based focusing on local watershed scales that are most relevant to management scales. The first priority should be enhancing environmental monitoring of changes and river responses coupled with the development of local scenario-building exercises that take land use and water use into account. Protection of a greater number of rivers and riparian corridors is essential, as is conjunctive groundwater/surface water management. This will require collaborations among multiple partners in the respective river basins and wise land use planning to minimize additional development in watersheds with valued rivers. Ensuring environmental flows by purchasing or leasing water rights and/or altering reservoir release patterns will be needed for many rivers. Implementing restoration projects proactively can be used to protect existing resources so that expensive reactive restoration to repair damage associated with a changing climate is minimized. Special attention should be given to diversifying and replicating habitats of special importance and to monitoring populations at high risk or of special value so that management interventions can occur if the risks to habitats or species increase significantly over time.

Empirically derived dietary patterns and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis on prospective observational studies.

PubMed

Maghsoudi, Zahra; Ghiasvand, Reza; Salehi-Abargouei, Amin

2016-02-01

To systematically review prospective cohort studies about the association between dietary patterns and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence, and to quantify the effects using a meta-analysis. Databases such as PubMed, ISI Web of Science, SCOPUS and Google Scholar were searched up to 15 January 2015. Cohort studies which tried to examine the association between empirically derived dietary patterns and incident T2DM were selected. The relative risks (RR) and their 95 % confidence intervals for diabetes among participants with highest v. lowest adherence to derived dietary patterns were incorporated into meta-analysis using random-effects models. Ten studies (n 404 528) were enrolled in the systematic review and meta-analysis; our analysis revealed that adherence to the 'healthy' dietary patterns significantly reduced the risk of T2DM (RR=0·86; 95 % CI 0·82, 0·90), while the 'unhealthy' dietary patterns adversely affected diabetes risk (RR=1·30; 95 % CI 1·18, 1·43). Subgroup analysis showed that unhealthy dietary patterns in which foods with high phytochemical content were also loaded did not significantly increase T2DM risk (RR=1·06; 95 % CI 0·87, 1·30). 'Healthy' dietary patterns containing vegetables, fruits and whole grains can lower diabetes risk by 14 %. Consuming higher amounts of red and processed meats, high-fat dairy and refined grains in the context of 'unhealthy' dietary patterns will increase diabetes risk by 30 %; while including foods with high phytochemical content in these patterns can modify this effect.

Drinking Level, Drinking Pattern, and Twenty-Year Total Mortality Among Late-Life Drinkers.

PubMed

Holahan, Charles J; Schutte, Kathleen K; Brennan, Penny L; Holahan, Carole K; Moos, Rudolf H

2015-07-01

Research on moderate drinking has focused on the average level of drinking. Recently, however, investigators have begun to consider the role of the pattern of drinking, particularly heavy episodic drinking, in mortality. The present study examined the combined roles of average drinking level (moderate vs. high) and drinking pattern (regular vs. heavy episodic) in 20-year total mortality among late-life drinkers. The sample comprised 1,121 adults ages 55-65 years. Alcohol consumption was assessed at baseline, and total mortality was indexed across 20 years. We used multiple logistic regression analyses controlling for a broad set of sociodemographic, behavioral, and health status covariates. Among individuals whose high level of drinking placed them at risk, a heavy episodic drinking pattern did not increase mortality odds compared with a regular drinking pattern. Conversely, among individuals who engage in a moderate level of drinking, prior findings showed that a heavy episodic drinking pattern did increase mortality risk compared with a regular drinking pattern. Correspondingly, a high compared with a moderate drinking level increased mortality risk among individuals maintaining a regular drinking pattern, but not among individuals engaging in a heavy episodic drinking pattern, whose pattern of consumption had already placed them at risk. Findings highlight that low-risk drinking requires that older adults drink low to moderate average levels of alcohol and avoid heavy episodic drinking. Heavy episodic drinking is frequent among late-middle-aged and older adults and needs to be addressed along with average consumption in understanding the health risks of late-life drinkers.

Risk stratification in cervical cancer screening by complete screening history: Applying bioinformatics to a general screening population.

PubMed

Baltzer, Nicholas; Sundström, Karin; Nygård, Jan F; Dillner, Joakim; Komorowski, Jan

2017-07-01

Women screened for cervical cancer in Sweden are currently treated under a one-size-fits-all programme, which has been successful in reducing the incidence of cervical cancer but does not use all of the participants' available medical information. This study aimed to use women's complete cervical screening histories to identify diagnostic patterns that may indicate an increased risk of developing cervical cancer. A nationwide case-control study was performed where cervical cancer screening data from 125,476 women with a maximum follow-up of 10 years were evaluated for patterns of SNOMED diagnoses. The cancer development risk was estimated for a number of different screening history patterns and expressed as Odds Ratios (OR), with a history of 4 benign cervical tests as reference, using logistic regression. The overall performance of the model was moderate (64% accuracy, 71% area under curve) with 61-62% of the study population showing no specific patterns associated with risk. However, predictions for high-risk groups as defined by screening history patterns were highly discriminatory with ORs ranging from 8 to 36. The model for computing risk performed consistently across different screening history lengths, and several patterns predicted cancer outcomes. The results show the presence of risk-increasing and risk-decreasing factors in the screening history. Thus it is feasible to identify subgroups based on their complete screening histories. Several high-risk subgroups identified might benefit from an increased screening density. Some low-risk subgroups identified could likely have a moderately reduced screening density without additional risk. © 2017 UICC.

The interplay between knowledge, perceived efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change: a one-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Milfont, Taciano L

2012-06-01

If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, Francisco; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Tol, Richard S. J.

2017-06-01

Climate change impacts can be especially large in cities. Several large cities are taking climate change into account in long-term strategies, for which it is important to have information on the costs and benefits of adaptation. Studies on climate change impacts in cities mostly focus on a limited set of countries and risks, for example sea-level rise, health and water resources. Most of these studies are qualitative, except for the costs of sea-level rise in cities. These impact estimates do not take into account that large cities will experience additional warming due to the urban heat island effect, that is, the change of local climate patterns caused by urbanization. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the economic costs of the joint impacts of local and global climate change for all main cities around the world. Cost-benefit analyses are presented of urban heat island mitigation options, including green and cool roofs and cool pavements. It is shown that local actions can be a climate risk-reduction instrument. Furthermore, limiting the urban heat island through city adaptation plans can significantly amplify the benefits of international mitigation efforts.

Depression and Delinquency Covariation in an Accelerated Longitudinal Sample of Adolescents

PubMed Central

Kofler, Michael J.; McCart, Michael R.; Zajac, Kristyn; Ruggiero, Kenneth J.; Saunders, Benjamin E.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.

2015-01-01

Objectives The current study tested opposing predictions stemming from the failure and acting out theories of depression-delinquency covariation. Methods Participants included a nationwide longitudinal sample of adolescents (N = 3,604) ages 12 to 17. Competing models were tested using cohort-sequential latent growth curve modeling to determine whether depressive symptoms at age 12 (baseline) predicted concurrent and age-related changes in delinquent behavior, whether the opposite pattern was apparent (delinquency predicting depression), and whether initial levels of depression predict changes in delinquency significantly better than vice versa. Results Early depressive symptoms predicted age-related changes in delinquent behavior significantly better than early delinquency predicted changes in depressive symptoms. In addition, the impact of gender on age-related changes in delinquent symptoms was mediated by gender differences in depressive symptom changes, indicating that depressive symptoms are a particularly salient risk factor for delinquent behavior in girls. Conclusion Early depressive symptoms represent a significant risk factor for later delinquent behavior – especially for girls – and appear to be a better predictor of later delinquency than early delinquency is of later depression. These findings provide support for the acting out theory and contradict failure theory predictions. PMID:21787049

Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E.; Jones, R. G.; Halladay, K.; Allen, M. R.

2013-12-01

The effects of projected future global and regional climate change on the water cycle and thus on global water security are amongst the most economically and politically important challenges that society faces in the 21st century. The provision of secure access to water resources and the protection of communities from water-related risks have emerged as top priorities amongst policymakers within the public and private sectors alike. Investment decisions on water infrastructure rely heavily on quantitative assessments of risks and uncertainties associated with future changes in water-related threats. Especially with the introduction of loss and damages on the agenda of the UNFCCC additionally the attribution of such changes to anthropogenic climate change and other external climate drivers is crucial. Probabilistic event attribution (PEA) provides a method of evaluating the extent to which human-induced climate change is affecting localised weather events and impacts of such events that relies on good observations as well as climate modelling. The overall approach is to simulate both, the statistics of observed weather, and the statistics of the weather that would have occurred had specific external drivers of climate change been absent. The majority of studies applying PEA have focused on quantifying attributable risk, with changes in risk depending on an assumption of 'all other things being equal', including natural drivers of climate change and vulnerability. Most previous attribution studies have focused on European extreme weather events, but the most vulnerable regions to climate change are in Asia and Africa. One of the most complex hydrological systems is the tropical rainforest, with the rainforests in tropical Africa being some of the most under-researched regions in the world. Research in the Amazonian rainforest suggests potential vulnerability to climate change. We will present results from using the large ensemble of atmosphere-only general circulation model (AGCM) simulations within the weather@home project, and analysing statistics of precipitation in the dry season of the Congo Basin rainforests. Because observed data sets in that region are of very poor quality we show how validation methods not only relying on such data have been used to investigate the applicability of PEA analysis from large model ensembles to this tropical region. Additionally we will present results for the same region but generated with a very large ensemble of regional climate simulations which allows analysing the importance of a realistic simulation of small scale precipitation processes for attribution studies in a tropical climate. We highlight that PEA analysis has the potential to provide valuable scientific evidence of recent or anticipated climatological changes in the water cycle, especially in regions with sparse observational data and unclear projections of future changes. However, the strong influence of SST tele-connection patterns on tropical precipitation provides more challenges in the set-up of attribution studies than studies on mid-latitude rainfall.

Context and Cardiovascular Risk Modification in Two Regions of Ontario, Canada: A Photo Elicitation Study

PubMed Central

Angus, Jan E.; Rukholm, Ellen; Michel, Isabelle; Larocque, Sylvie; Seto, Lisa; Lapum, Jennifer; Timmermans, Katherine; Chevrier-Lamoureux, Renée; Nolan, Robert P.

2009-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases, which include coronary heart diseases (CHD), remain the leading cause of death in Canada and other industrialized countries. This qualitative study used photo-elicitation, focus groups and in-depth interviews to understand health behaviour change from the perspectives of 38 people who were aware of their high risk for CHD and had received information about cardiovascular risk modification while participating in a larger intervention study. Participants were drawn from two selected regions: Sudbury and District (northern Ontario) and the Greater Toronto Area (southern Ontario). Analysis drew on concepts of place and space to capture the complex interplay between geographic location, sociodemographic position, and people’s efforts to understand and modify their risk for CHD. Three major sites of difference and ambiguity emerged: 1) place and access to health resources; 2) time and food culture; and 3) itineraries or travels through multiple locations. All participants reported difficulties in learning and adhering to new lifestyle patterns, but access to supportive health resources was different in the two regions. Even within regions, subgroups experienced different patterns of constraint and advantage. In each region, “fast” food and traditional foods were entrenched within different temporal and social meanings. Finally, different and shifting strategies for risk modification were required at various points during daily and seasonal travels through neighbourhoods, to workplaces, or on vacation. Thus health education for CHD risk modification should be place-specific and tailored to the needs and resources of specific communities. PMID:19826558

Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

2015-04-01

Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare traditional vulnerability distributions with more recent conceptualisation of risks, more research should be devoted to global assessments of climate change risk distributions.

Plantar loading and foot-strike pattern changes with speed during barefoot running in those with a natural rearfoot strike pattern while shod.

PubMed

Cooper, Danielle M; Leissring, Sarah K; Kernozek, Thomas W

2015-06-01

Claims of injury reduction related to barefoot running has resulted in interest from the running public; however, its risks are not well understood for those who typically wear cushioned footwear. Examine how plantar loading changes during barefoot running in a group of runners that ordinarily wear cushioned footwear and demonstrate a rearfoot strike pattern (RFSP) without cueing or feedback alter their foot strike pattern and plantar loading when asked to run barefoot at different speeds down a runway. Forty-one subjects ran barefoot at three different speeds across a pedography platform which collected plantar loading variables for 10 regions of the foot; data were analyzed using two-way mixed multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). A significant foot strike position (FSP)×speed interaction in each of the foot regions indicated that plantar loading differed based on FSP across the different speeds. The RFSP provided the highest total forces across the foot while the pressures displayed in subjects with a non-rearfoot strike pattern (NRFSP) was more similar between each of the metatarsals. The majority of subjects ran barefoot with a NRFSP and demonstrated lower total forces and more uniform force distribution across the metatarsal regions. This may have an influence in injuries sustained in barefoot running. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dietary patterns and the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A population-based case-control study in a rural population.

PubMed

Liu, Xudong; Wang, Xiaorong; Lin, Sihao; Lao, Xiangqian; Zhao, Jin; Song, Qingkun; Su, Xuefen; Tak-Sun Yu, Ignatius

2017-02-01

Few studies were available in exploring the roles of dietary patterns in the development of esophageal cancer, especially in China. This study aimed to investigate the roles of dietary patterns in the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in a Chinese rural population. A population-based cases-control study was designed and conducted in Yanting County, Sichuan Province of China during two years (between June 2011 and May 2013). A total of 942 pairs of ESCC cases and controls were recruited. A food frequency questionnaire was adopted to collect information of dietary consumption. Dietary patterns were extracted by using principle component and factor analysis based on 24 dietary groups. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by using logistic regression model, with adjustment for possible confounding variables. Four major dietary patterns were identified, which were labeled as "prudent", "vegetable and fruits", "processed food" and "alcohol drinking". In comparison of the highest with the lowest quartiles of pattern scores, the processed food pattern (OR: 2.84, 95% CI: 2.13-3.80) and alcohol drinking pattern (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.95-3.71) were significantly associated with an increased risk of ESCC, while the vegetable and fruit pattern (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.53-0.92) was associated with reduced risk by 30%. The prudent pattern was associated with a reduced risk by 33% (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.50-0.88) in a multivariate logistic regression model, but no statistical significance was reached in a composite model. The results suggest an important role of dietary patterns in ESCC. Diets rich in vegetables and fruits may decrease the risk of ESCC, whereas diets rich in processed food and drinking alcohol may increase the risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

What controls springtime fine dust variability in the western United States? Implications for air quality and public health risks under future climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achakulwisut, P.; Mickley, L. J.; Shen, L.; Anenberg, S.

2017-12-01

Studies suggest that deposition of atmospheric dust and its surface concentrations have recently been increasing in the Southwest, and a key concern is that climate change will impact dust mobilization and transport across the western United States. Here we diagnose the dominant meteorological factors driving observed fine dust interannual variability in the western United States during 2002-2015 in March-May, and investigate the implications of our results for future dust levels. Empirical orthogonal function analysis suggests that for each spring month, 50-61% of present-day variance in fine dust can be explained by either a coherent pattern of co-variability across the West or a dipole Northwest-Southwest pattern. We identify the key drivers of fine dust variability to be regional precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture, which in turn are influenced at least in part by large-scale changes in sea surface temperature and/or atmospheric circulation patterns. Fluctuations in the trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust also contribute to fine dust variability in March and April. We find that March fine dust concentrations have increased from 2002 to 2015 in Southwest regions (0.09 ± 0.07 μg m-3 a-1). Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that these increases are associated with: (1) regionally drier and warmer conditions driven by constructive interference between El Niño Southern-Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation; (2) soil moisture reductions in areas spanning the North American deserts; and (3) stronger trans-Pacific transport. We then use observed drought-sensitivities to project future changes in annual mean fine dust during the late-21st century (2076-2095), using bias-corrected downscaled meteorological outputs from 23 CMIP5 models following two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Together with projections of future population and baseline incidence rates, and results from epidemiological studies of health risks due to PM2.5 exposure, we estimate the excess premature mortality and morbidity associated with projected changes in annual mean fine dust in the southwest United States.

Old Ideals and New Realities: The Changing Context of Adolescent Partnerships in Cebu, Philippines

PubMed Central

Gultiano, Socorro A.; Avila, Josephine L.; Hindin, Michelle J.

2014-01-01

The Philippines has experienced rapid sociodemographic changes in recent years, with implications for adolescents. This study combines quantitative and qualitative data from Metro Cebu to assess the timing and predictors of adolescent partnerships, as well as the context in which these partnerships are occurring. The majority of adolescents (54%) had premarital sex, though this pattern varied by gender. Wealthier, urban men, and women with less education and lower reported religiosity, were more likely to have premarital sex. Engagement in risk behaviors was predictive of premarital sex for both males and females. The qualitative data contextualize the circumstances under which adolescents engage in sex and form partnerships, and illustrate how sociocultural norms contribute to gender differences in partnership patterns. Given the ‘new’ realities of young Filipinos’ lives, targeted efforts to support adolescents’ transition to adulthood are needed to avert potentially adverse lifeevents. PMID:22587636

Dietary patterns and cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents and young adults: the Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project.

PubMed

McCourt, Hannah J; Draffin, Claire R; Woodside, Jayne V; Cardwell, Chris R; Young, Ian S; Hunter, Steven J; Murray, Liam J; Boreham, Colin A; Gallagher, Alison M; Neville, Charlotte E; McKinley, Michelle C

2014-11-28

Dietary pattern (DP) analysis allows examination of the combined effects of nutrients and foods on the markers of CVD. Very few studies have examined these relationships during adolescence or young adulthood. Traditional CVD risk biomarkers were analysed in 12-15-year-olds (n 487; Young Hearts (YH)1) and again in the same individuals at 20-25 years of age (n 487; YH3). Based on 7 d diet histories, in the present study, DP analysis was performed using a posteriori principal component analysis for the YH3 cohort and the a priori Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) was calculated for both YH1 and YH3 cohorts. In the a posteriori DP analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the 'healthy' DP were found to have lower pulse wave velocity (PWV) and homocysteine concentrations, the 'sweet tooth' DP were found to have increased LDL concentrations, and decreased HDL concentrations, [corrected] the 'drinker/social' DP were found to have lower LDL and homocysteine concentrations, but exhibited a trend towards a higher TAG concentration, and finally the 'Western' DP were found to have elevated homocysteine and HDL concentrations. In the a priori dietary score analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the Mediterranean diet were found to exhibit a trend towards a lower PWV. MDS did not track between YH1 and YH3, and nor was there a longitudinal relationship between the change in the MDS and the change in CVD risk biomarkers. In conclusion, cross-sectional analysis revealed that some associations between DP and CVD risk biomarkers were already evident in the young adult population, namely the association between the healthy DP (and the MDS) and PWV; however, no longitudinal associations were observed between these relatively short time periods.

Angiographic prevalence and pattern of coronary artery disease in women.

PubMed

Ezhumalai, Babu; Jayaraman, Balachander

2014-01-01

There are not many studies describing the prevalence and pattern of "coronary artery disease" (CAD) in women undergoing "coronary angiography" (CAG). Hence, uncertainty thrives with regard to the angiographic prevalence and pattern of CAD in women. Our objective was to study the prevalence and pattern of CAD among women undergoing CAG. Data of 500 women who underwent CAG for suspected CAD over 3 years were retrospectively analyzed. They were classified into young group (age < 55 years) and elderly group (age ≥ 55 years). Angiographic profile of "left main disease" (LMD) was also studied. There was greater prevalence of obstructive CAD especially double vessel disease and triple vessel disease in elderly group while normal coronaries were more prevalent in young group. There was equal distribution of non-significant lesions and intermediate lesions between the two groups. The prevalence of LMD is 3.4%, obstructive CAD is 45.4%, and multivessel disease is 28%. The prevalence of LMD and multivessel disease is 31.4%. The pattern of involvement of coronary arteries was same between the two groups; left anterior descending artery is the most commonly affected vessel. Chronic total occlusion mostly involved right coronary artery. Bifurcation lesion involving distal left main coronary artery is the most prevalent pattern of LMD. There has been a change with regard to clinical presentation and onset of risk factors for CAD at young age, but the load of atherosclerotic burden and pattern of involvement of coronary arteries have not changed in women. Copyright © 2014 Cardiological Society of India. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Patterns and Predictors of Language and Literacy Abilities 4-10 Years in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children.

PubMed

Zubrick, Stephen R; Taylor, Catherine L; Christensen, Daniel

2015-01-01

Oral language is the foundation of literacy. Naturally, policies and practices to promote children's literacy begin in early childhood and have a strong focus on developing children's oral language, especially for children with known risk factors for low language ability. The underlying assumption is that children's progress along the oral to literate continuum is stable and predictable, such that low language ability foretells low literacy ability. This study investigated patterns and predictors of children's oral language and literacy abilities at 4, 6, 8 and 10 years. The study sample comprised 2,316 to 2,792 children from the first nationally representative Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Six developmental patterns were observed, a stable middle-high pattern, a stable low pattern, an improving pattern, a declining pattern, a fluctuating low pattern, and a fluctuating middle-high pattern. Most children (69%) fit a stable middle-high pattern. By contrast, less than 1% of children fit a stable low pattern. These results challenged the view that children's progress along the oral to literate continuum is stable and predictable. Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate risks for low literacy ability at 10 years and sensitivity-specificity analysis was used to examine the predictive utility of the multivariate model. Predictors were modelled as risk variables with the lowest level of risk as the reference category. In the multivariate model, substantial risks for low literacy ability at 10 years, in order of descending magnitude, were: low school readiness, Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander status and low language ability at 8 years. Moderate risks were high temperamental reactivity, low language ability at 4 years, and low language ability at 6 years. The following risk factors were not statistically significant in the multivariate model: Low maternal consistency, low family income, health care card, child not read to at home, maternal smoking, maternal education, family structure, temperamental persistence, and socio-economic area disadvantage. The results of the sensitivity-specificity analysis showed that a well-fitted multivariate model featuring risks of substantive magnitude did not do particularly well in predicting low literacy ability at 10 years.

Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh

2014-01-01

Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has the geographic distribution of authors contributing to the knowledge base for climate change assessments. Authorship of climate change publications from developing countries has increased, although it still represents a small fraction of the total. The unequal distribution of publications presents a challenge to the production of a comprehensive and balanced global assessment.

Lipidomic fatty acid profile and global gene expression pattern in mammary gland of rats that were exposed to lard-based high fat diet during fetal and lactation periods associated to breast cancer risk in adulthood.

PubMed

Andrade, Fábia de Oliveira; de Assis, Sonia; Jin, Lu; Fontelles, Camile Castilho; Barbisan, Luís Fernando; Purgatto, Eduardo; Hilakivi-Clarke, Leena; Ong, Thomas Prates

2015-09-05

The persistent effects of animal fat consumption during pregnancy and nursing on the programming of breast cancer risk among female offspring were studied here. We have previously found that female offspring of rat dams that consumed a lard-based high-fat (HF) diet (60% fat-derived energy) during pregnancy, or during pregnancy and lactation, were at a reduced risk of developing mammary cancer. To better understand the unexpected protective effects of early life lard exposure, we have applied lipidomics and nutrigenomics approaches to investigate the fatty acid profile and global gene expression patterns in the mammary tissue of the female offspring. Consumption of this HF diet during gestation had few effects on the mammary tissue fatty acids profile of young adult offspring, while exposure from gestation throughout nursing promoted significant alterations in the fatty acids profile. Major differences were related to decreases in saturated fatty acids (SFA) and increases in omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) and conjugated linolenic acid (CLA) concentrations. In addition several differences in gene expression patterns by microarray analysis between the control and in utero or in utero and during lactation HF exposed offspring were identified. Differential dependency network (DDN) analysis indicated that many of the genes exhibited unique connections to other genes only in the HF offspring. These unique connections included Hrh1-Ythdf1 and Repin1-Elavl2 in the in utero HF offspring, and Rnf213-Htr3b and Klf5-Chrna4 in the in utero and lactation HF offspring, compared with the control offspring. We conclude that an exposure to a lard-based HF diet during early life changes the fatty acid profile and transcriptional network in mammary gland in young adult rats, and these changes appear to be consistent with reduced mammary cancer risk observed in our previous study. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Female streetwalkers' perspectives on migration and HIV/STI risks in a changing economic and social environment: a qualitative study in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Huang, Z Jennifer; Hu, Dier; Chang, Ruth; Zaccaro, Heather; Iguchi, Martin; Zheng, Huang; He, Na

2015-01-01

China's 30-year economic boom has created a unique social and economic market for commercial sex, as well as for a workforce of migrant women from rural China. This qualitative study explores the impact of the rapidly changing social and economic environment on migration patterns, knowledge of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), STI risk behaviours and health beliefs among female streetwalkers in Shanghai. Qualitative data were collected in 2010 through semi-structured in-depth interviews with 16 streetwalkers to characterise their migration passages, sexual health and behaviours, and peer networks. Many streetwalkers reported histories of childhood impoverishment, of family or partner violence or trauma, of migration consistent with the timeline and routes of economic development and of a scarcity in health, social or economic support. Their knowledge of the prevention and treatment of HIV and STIs was limited. They had little bargaining power on condom use and the majority resorted to vaginal douching and self-management with antibiotics as preventative measures. The study identifies streetwalkers' perspectives on the changing environment, their options and actions and, finally, HIV/STI risks that were unique to this hidden population.

Glucose-lowering agents and the patterns of risk for cancer: a study with the General Practice Research Database and secondary care data.

PubMed

van Staa, T P; Patel, D; Gallagher, A M; de Bruin, M L

2012-03-01

Recent studies suggesting an increased cancer risk with glucose-lowering agents have received widespread publicity. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the comparability in underlying cancer risk and patterns of cancer risk over time with different glucose-lowering agents. The General Practice Research Database (GPRD) was used to identify cohorts of new users. Cancer outcomes were obtained from the GPRD, Hospital Episode Statistics and cancer registries. Relative rates of cancer comparing different glucose-lowering agents were estimated using Poisson regression. A total of 206,940 patients was identified. There was no difference in cancer risk and quartile for HbA(1c) value. There were differences in cancer incidence in the first 6 months after starting treatment (adjusted relative rate of 0.83 [95% CI 0.70, 0.99] with thiazolidinediones, 1.34 [95% CI 1.19, 1.51] with sulfonylureas and 1.79 [95% CI 1.53, 2.10] with insulin, compared with metformin). Insulin users had decreasing cancer incidence over time (adjusted relative rate of 0.58 [95% CI 0.50, 0.68] during months 6-24, relative rate of 0.50 [95% CI 0.42, 0.59] during months 25-60 and relative rate of 0.48 [95% CI 0.40, 0.59] during months 60+) compared with months 0-6 after starting insulin. Similar patterns were found with sulfonylureas and metformin. There were no increases over time with insulin glargine (A21Gly, B31Arg, B32Arg human insulin; relative rate of 0.70 [95% CI 0.52, 0.95], 0.77 [95% CI 0.56, 1.07] and 0.60 [95% CI 0.36, 1.02], respectively, for 6-24, 25-60 and >60 months). These findings do not provide evidence of either beneficial or adverse effects of glucose-lowering agents on cancer risk and are consistent with changes in diabetes treatment in the few months prior to the diagnosis of cancer.

Meat consumption as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Barnard, Neal; Levin, Susan; Trapp, Caroline

2014-02-21

Disease risk factors identified in epidemiological studies serve as important public health tools, helping clinicians identify individuals who may benefit from more aggressive screening or risk-modification procedures, allowing policymakers to prioritize intervention programs, and encouraging at-risk individuals to modify behavior and improve their health. These factors have been based primarily on evidence from cross-sectional and prospective studies, as most do not lend themselves to randomized trials. While some risk factors are not modifiable, eating habits are subject to change through both individual action and broader policy initiatives. Meat consumption has been frequently investigated as a variable associated with diabetes risk, but it has not yet been described as a diabetes risk factor. In this article, we evaluate the evidence supporting the use of meat consumption as a clinically useful risk factor for type 2 diabetes, based on studies evaluating the risks associated with meat consumption as a categorical dietary characteristic (i.e., meat consumption versus no meat consumption), as a scalar variable (i.e., gradations of meat consumption), or as part of a broader dietary pattern.

Meat Consumption as a Risk Factor for Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Barnard, Neal; Levin, Susan; Trapp, Caroline

2014-01-01

Disease risk factors identified in epidemiological studies serve as important public health tools, helping clinicians identify individuals who may benefit from more aggressive screening or risk-modification procedures, allowing policymakers to prioritize intervention programs, and encouraging at-risk individuals to modify behavior and improve their health. These factors have been based primarily on evidence from cross-sectional and prospective studies, as most do not lend themselves to randomized trials. While some risk factors are not modifiable, eating habits are subject to change through both individual action and broader policy initiatives. Meat consumption has been frequently investigated as a variable associated with diabetes risk, but it has not yet been described as a diabetes risk factor. In this article, we evaluate the evidence supporting the use of meat consumption as a clinically useful risk factor for type 2 diabetes, based on studies evaluating the risks associated with meat consumption as a categorical dietary characteristic (i.e., meat consumption versus no meat consumption), as a scalar variable (i.e., gradations of meat consumption), or as part of a broader dietary pattern. PMID:24566443

Developing a methodology for the national-scale assessment of rainfall-induced landslide hazard in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurchescu, Marta; Micu, Dana; Sima, Mihaela; Bălteanu, Dan; Bojariu, Roxana; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Dragotă, Carmen; Micu, Mihai; Senzaconi, Francisc

2017-04-01

Landslides together with earthquakes and floods represent the main natural hazards in Romania, causing major impacts to human activities. The RO-RISK (Disaster Risk Evaluation at a National Level) project is a flagship project aimed to strengthen risk prevention and management in Romania, by evaluating - among the specific risks in the country - landslide hazard and risk at a national level. Landslide hazard is defined as "the probability of occurrence within a specified period of time and within a given area of a landslide of a given magnitude" (Varnes 1984; Guzzetti et al. 1999). Nevertheless, most landslide ʿhazardʾ maps only consist in susceptibility (i.e. spatial probability) zonations without considering temporal or magnitude information on the hazard. This study proposes a methodology for the assessment of landslide hazard at the national scale on a scenario basis, while also considering changes in hazard patterns and levels under climate change conditions. A national landslide database consisting of more than 3,000 records has been analyzed against a meteorological observation dataset in order to assess the relationship between precipitation and landslides. Various extreme climate indices were computed in order to account for the different rainfall patterns able to prepare/trigger landslides (e.g. extreme levels of seasonal rainfall, 3-days rainfall or number of consecutive rainy days with different return periods). In order to derive national rainfall thresholds, i.e. valid for diverse climatic environments across the country, values in the parameter maps were rendered comparable by means of normalization with the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day-normal. A hazard assessment builds on a frequency-magnitude relationship. In the current hazard scenario approach, frequency was kept constant for each single map, while the magnitude of the expected geomorphic event was modeled in relation to the distributed magnitude of the triggering factor. Given the small-scale context, landslides were interpreted as multiple-occurrence regional landslide events (MORLE) (Crozier 2005) and consequently their magnitude was expressed by means of the number of triggered processes. In order to achieve acceptable relations between the intensity of the trigger and the magnitude of the MORLE for different morphological and lithological conditions, a prior distinction of homogenous territories in terms of landslide predisposing characteristics was considered. Since landslide data was statistically insufficient, empiric knowledge gained on rainfall thresholds was used to modulate expert judgment and build semi-quantitative hazard matrices. Climate projections (2021-2050) from EURO-CORDEX regional models (downscaled to a 1 km resolution) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were considered to estimate future patterns and levels of landslide hazard across Romania and investigate expected changes. The established hazard scenarios allow the identification of the high-hazard 'hotspot' regions across the country as well as of those assigned to the medium-to-high hazard magnitudes under both current and future climates. Trends in the expected impact of climate change on landslide hazard are discussed with reference to related uncertainties. This study is part of the RO-RISK project coordinated by the Romanian General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (IGSU) and supported by the European Social Fund through the Operational Programme for Administrative Capacity (POCA).

Life Course Pathways of Economic Hardship and Mobility and Midlife Trajectories of Health.

PubMed

Willson, Andrea E; Shuey, Kim M

2016-09-01

We utilize over 40 years of prospective data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (N = 1,229) and repeated-measures latent class analysis to examine how long-term patterns of stability and change in economic hardship from childhood to adulthood are related to subsequent trajectories of midlife health. We review conceptual and methodological approaches to examining health inequality across the life course and highlight the contribution of a person-centered, disaggregated approach to modeling health and its association with long-term pathways of economic resources, including changing resources associated with mobility. Findings suggest those who experienced early mobility out of economic hardship were less likely than those in persistent economic hardship to experience a high-risk health trajectory, while experiencing later mobility did not lessen this risk. We conclude with a call for further investigation into the role of social mobility and the timing, degree, and direction of change in investigations of health inequality. © American Sociological Association 2016.

Inmate responses to prison-based drug treatment: a repeated measures analysis.

PubMed

Welsh, Wayne N

2010-06-01

Using a sample of 347 prison inmates and general linear modeling (GLM) repeated measures analyses, this paper examined during-treatment responses (e.g., changes in psychological and social functioning) to prison-based TC drug treatment. These effects have rarely been examined in previous studies, and never with a fully multivariate model accounting for within-subjects effects (changes over time), between-subjects effects (e.g., levels of risk and motivation), and within/between-subjects interactions (timexriskxmotivation). The results provide evidence of positive inmate change in response to prison TC treatment, but the patterns of results varied depending upon: (a) specific indicators of psychological and social functioning, motivation, and treatment process; (b) the time periods examined (1, 6, and 12 months during treatment); and (c) baseline levels of risk and motivation. Significant interactions between time and type of inmate suggest important new directions for research, theory, and practice in offender-based substance abuse treatment. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risky drinking patterns are being continued into pregnancy: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Anderson, Amy E; Hure, Alexis J; Forder, Peta M; Powers, Jennifer; Kay-Lambkin, Frances J; Loxton, Deborah J

2014-01-01

Risky patterns of alcohol use prior to pregnancy increase the risk of alcohol-exposed pregnancies and subsequent adverse outcomes. It is important to understand how consumption changes once women become pregnant. The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of women that partake in risky drinking patterns before pregnancy and to examine how these patterns change once they become pregnant. A sample of 1577 women from the 1973-78 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were included if they first reported being pregnant in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009 and reported risky drinking patterns prior to that pregnancy. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine which risky drinking patterns were most likely to continue into pregnancy. When reporting risky drinking patterns prior to pregnancy only 6% of women reported weekly drinking only, whereas 46% reported binge drinking only and 48% reported both. Women in both binge categories were more likely to have experienced financial stress, not been partnered, smoked, used drugs, been nulliparous, experienced a violent relationship, and were less educated. Most women (46%) continued these risky drinking patterns into pregnancy, with 40% reducing these behaviors, and 14% completely ceasing alcohol consumption. Once pregnant, women who binged only prior to pregnancy were more likely to continue (55%) rather than reduce drinking (29%). Of the combined drinking group 61% continued to binge and 47% continued weekly drinking. Compared with the combined drinking group, binge only drinkers prior to pregnancy were less likely to reduce rather than continue their drinking once pregnant (OR = 0.37, 95% CI  =  0.29, 0.47). Over a third of women continued risky drinking into pregnancy, especially binge drinking, suggesting a need to address alcohol consumption prior to pregnancy.

Prepregnancy adherence to dietary patterns and lower risk of gestational diabetes mellitus123

PubMed Central

Tobias, Deirdre K; Zhang, Cuilin; Chavarro, Jorge; Bowers, Katherine; Rich-Edwards, Janet; Rosner, Bernard; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Hu, Frank B

2012-01-01

Background: Previous studies observed inverse associations of adherence to the alternate Mediterranean (aMED), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), and alternate Healthy Eating Index (aHEI) dietary patterns with risk of type 2 diabetes; however, their associations with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) risk are unknown. Objective: This study aimed to assess usual prepregnancy adherence to well-known dietary patterns and GDM risk. Design: Our study included 21,376 singleton live births reported from 15,254 participants of the Nurses’ Health Study II cohort between 1991 and 2001. Pregnancies were free of prepregnancy chronic disease or previous GDM. Prepregnancy dietary pattern adherence scores were computed based on participants’ usual intake of the patterns’ components, assessed with a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regressions with generalized estimating equations were used to estimate the RRs and 95% CIs. Results: Incident first-time GDM was reported in 872 pregnancies. All 3 scores were inversely associated with GDM risk after adjustment for several covariables. In a comparison of the multivariable risk of GDM in participants in the fourth and first quartiles of dietary pattern adherence scores, aMED was associated with a 24% lower risk (RR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.95; P-trend = 0.004), DASH with a 34% lower risk (RR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.53, 0.82; P-trend = 0.0005), and aHEI with a 46% lower risk (RR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.43, 0.68; P-trend < 0.0001). Conclusion: Prepregnancy adherence to healthful dietary patterns is significantly associated with a lower risk of GDM. PMID:22760563

Dietary patterns are associated with incident stroke and contribute to excess risk of stroke in black Americans.

PubMed

Judd, Suzanne E; Gutiérrez, Orlando M; Newby, P K; Howard, George; Howard, Virginia J; Locher, Julie L; Kissela, Brett M; Shikany, James M

2013-12-01

Black Americans and residents of the Southeastern United States are at increased risk of stroke. Diet is one of many potential factors proposed that might explain these racial and regional disparities. Between 2003 and 2007, the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study enrolled 30 239 black and white Americans aged≥45 years. Dietary patterns were derived using factor analysis and foods from food frequency data. Incident strokes were adjudicated using medical records by a team of physicians. Cox-proportional hazards models were used to examine risk of stroke. During 5.7 years, 490 incident strokes were observed. In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, greater adherence to the plant-based pattern was associated with lower stroke risk (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.91; Ptrend=0.005). This association was attenuated after addition of income, education, total energy intake, smoking, and sedentary behavior. Participants with a higher adherence to the Southern pattern experienced a 39% increased risk of stroke (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.05, 1.84), with a significant (P=0.009) trend across quartiles. Including Southern pattern in the model mediated the black-white risk of stroke by 63%. These data suggest that adherence to a Southern style diet may increase the risk of stroke, whereas adherence to a more plant-based diet may reduce stroke risk. Given the consistency of finding a dietary effect on stroke risk across studies, discussing nutrition patterns during risk screening may be an important step in reducing stroke.

The impact of climate change on infectious disease transmission: perceptions of CDC health professionals in Shanxi Province, China.

PubMed

Wei, Junni; Hansen, Alana; Zhang, Ying; Li, Hong; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Xue, Shulian; Zhao, Shufang; Bi, Peng

2014-01-01

There have been increasing concerns about the challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change, especially in developing countries including China. Health professionals play a significant role in the battle to control and prevent infectious diseases. This study therefore aims to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of health professionals at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in different levels in China, and to consider adaptation measures to deal with the challenge of climate change. In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 staff in CDCs in Shanxi Province, China, whose routine work involves disease control and prevention. Data were analyzed using descriptive methods and logistic regression. A majority of the CDC staff were aware of the health risks from climate change, especially its impacts on infectious disease transmission in their jurisdictions, and believed climate change might bring about both temporal and spatial change in transmission patterns. It was thought that adaptation measures should be established including: strengthening/improving currently existing disease surveillance systems and vector monitoring; building CDC capacity in terms of infrastructure and in-house health professional training; development and refinement of relevant legislation, policies and guidelines; better coordination among various government departments; the involvement of the community in infectious disease interventions; and collaborative research with other institutions. This study provides a snapshot of the understanding of CDC staff regarding climate change risks relevant to infectious diseases and adaptation in China. Results may help inform future efforts to develop adaptation measures to minimize infectious disease risks due to climate change.

Western Dietary Pattern Increases, and Prudent Dietary Pattern Decreases, Risk of Incident Diverticulitis in a Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Strate, Lisa L; Keeley, Brieze R; Cao, Yin; Wu, Kana; Giovannucci, Edward L; Chan, Andrew T

2017-04-01

Dietary fiber is implicated as a risk factor for diverticulitis. Analyses of dietary patterns may provide information on risk beyond those of individual foods or nutrients. We examined whether major dietary patterns are associated with risk of incident diverticulitis. We performed a prospective cohort study of 46,295 men who were free of diverticulitis and known diverticulosis in 1986 (baseline) using data from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. Each study participant completed a detailed medical and dietary questionnaire at baseline. We sent supplemental questionnaires to men reporting incident diverticulitis on biennial follow-up questionnaires. We assessed diet every 4 years using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Western (high in red meat, refined grains, and high-fat dairy) and prudent (high in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains) dietary patterns were identified using principal component analysis. Follow-up time accrued from the date of return of the baseline questionnaire in 1986 until a diagnosis of diverticulitis, diverticulosis or diverticular bleeding; death; or December 31, 2012. The primary end point was incident diverticulitis. During 894,468 person years of follow-up, we identified 1063 incident cases of diverticulitis. After adjustment for other risk factors, men in the highest quintile of Western dietary pattern score had a multivariate hazard ratio of 1.55 (95% CI, 1.20-1.99) for diverticulitis compared to men in the lowest quintile. High vs low prudent scores were associated with decreased risk of diverticulitis (multivariate hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.60-0.91). The association between dietary patterns and diverticulitis was predominantly attributable to intake of fiber and red meat. In a prospective cohort study of 46,295 men, a Western dietary pattern was associated with increased risk of diverticulitis, and a prudent pattern was associated with decreased risk. These data can guide dietary interventions for the prevention of diverticulitis. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Healthful dietary patterns and type 2 diabetes mellitus risk among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Tobias, Deirdre K; Hu, Frank B; Chavarro, Jorge; Rosner, Bernard; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Zhang, Cuilin

2012-11-12

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has reached epidemic proportions. Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at high risk for T2DM after pregnancy. Adherence to healthful dietary patterns has been inversely associated with T2DM in the general population; however, whether these dietary patterns are associated with progression to T2DM among a susceptible population is unknown. Four thousand four hundred thirteen participants from the Nurses' Health Study II cohort with prior GDM were followed up from 1991 to 2005. We derived the alternate Mediterranean diet (aMED), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), and alternate Healthy Eating Index (aHEI) dietary pattern adherence scores from a post-GDM validated food-frequency questionnaire, with cumulative average updating every 4 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models estimated the relative risk (hazard ratios) and 95% confidence intervals. We observed 491 cases of incident T2DM during 52 743 person-years. All 3 patterns were inversely associated with T2DM risk with adjustment for age, total calorie intake, age at first birth, parity, ethnicity, parental diabetes, oral contraceptive use, menopause, and smoking. When we compared participants with the highest adherence (quartile 4) vs lowest (quartile 1), the aMED pattern was associated with 40% lower risk of T2DM (hazard ratio, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.44-0.82; P=.002]); the DASH pattern, with 46% lower risk (0.54 [0.39-0.73; P.001]); and the aHEI pattern, with 57% lower risk (0.43 [0.31-0.59; P.001]). Adjustment for body mass index moderately attenuated these findings. Adherence to healthful dietary patterns is associated with lower T2DM risk among women with a history of GDM. The inverse associations are partly mediated by body mass index.

A quantitative index for classification of plantar thermal changes in the diabetic foot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Contreras, D.; Peregrina-Barreto, H.; Rangel-Magdaleno, J.; Gonzalez-Bernal, J. A.; Altamirano-Robles, L.

2017-03-01

One of the main complications caused by diabetes mellitus is the development of diabetic foot, which in turn, can lead to ulcerations. Because ulceration risks are linked to an increase in plantar temperatures, recent approaches analyze thermal changes. These approaches try to identify spatial patterns of temperature that could be characteristic of a diabetic group. However, this is a difficult task since thermal patterns have wide variations resulting on complex classification. Moreover, the measurement of contralateral plantar temperatures is important to determine whether there is an abnormal difference but, this only provides information when thermal changes are asymmetric and in absence of ulceration or amputation. Therefore, in this work is proposed a quantitative index for measuring the thermal change in the plantar region of participants diagnosed diabetes mellitus regards to a reliable reference (control) or regards to the contralateral foot (as usual). Also, a classification of the thermal changes based on a quantitative index is proposed. Such classification demonstrate the wide diversity of spatial distributions in the diabetic foot but also demonstrate that it is possible to identify common characteristics. An automatic process, based on the analysis of plantar angiosomes and image processing, is presented to quantify these thermal changes and to provide valuable information to the medical expert.

The social and economic context and determinants of schistosomiasis japonica.

PubMed

Huang, Yi-Xin; Manderson, Lenore

2005-01-01

A variety of biological and social factors govern schistosomiasis japonica in China. Social factors include those at a national and regional level, such as policies and patterns of development, which impact on local economic activities, and affect community, household and personal risk factors of infection. Drawing on research conducted in China, we illustrate how social structural and related factors influence individual risk and prevalence of infection. At a macro-level, political changes have occurred resulting in the shift from collective to family-based production, leading to clustering of infection in families. Industrialization and urbanization, and associated increased population mobility, have also influenced patterns of transmission and infection. Types of activities and local production patterns determine the exposure of individuals to schistosome-infested water sources. Fishermen have the most frequent water contact, aquatic workers the second and farmers the third; the relative risk of Schistosoma japonicum infection follows the same order. Among farmers, human infection is significantly related to agricultural production in rice fields infested with the intermediate host snail, and to rates of the infection in livestock. Risk of S. japonicum infection is also influenced by the domestic environment, including both the location of the house in relation to snail-colonized water sources, access to safe water, and improved sanitation. Household wealth and income determine family ability to provide and maintain safe water and sanitation, while determining or interacting with other variables. At an individual level, sex, age, educational level and ethnicity are all associated with different patterns of water use and water contact behaviour thereby affecting infection rates. Schistosomiasis impairs the growth and nutrition of children and the physical work capacity of adults, and so affects economic development. Given this, we note the importance of further research and social and contextual aspects of schistosomiasis infection in order to develop and sustain sound control strategies.

Snowfall in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula: Synoptic Circulation Patterns and Their Influence on Snow Day Trends

PubMed Central

Merino, Andrés; Fernández, Sergio; Hermida, Lucía; López, Laura; Sánchez, José Luis; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Gascón, Estíbaliz

2014-01-01

In recent decades, a decrease in snowfall attributed to the effects of global warming (among other causes) has become evident. However, it is reasonable to investigate meteorological causes for such decrease, by analyzing changes in synoptic scale patterns. On the Iberian Peninsula, the Castilla y León region in the northwest consists of a central plateau surrounded by mountain ranges. This creates snowfalls that are considered both an important water resource and a transportation risk. In this work, we develop a classification of synoptic situations that produced important snowfalls at observation stations in the major cities of Castilla y León from 1960 to 2011. We used principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster techniques to define four synoptic patterns conducive to snowfall in the region. Once we confirmed homogeneity of the series and serial correlation of the snowfallday records at the stations from 1960 to 2011, we carried out a Mann-Kendall test. The results show a negative trend at most stations, so there are a decreased number of snowfall days. Finally, variations in these meteorological variables were related to changes in the frequencies of snow events belonging to each synoptic pattern favorable for snowfall production at the observatory locations. PMID:25152912

Dietary patterns and risk of colorectal cancer in Tehran Province: a case-control study.

PubMed

Safari, Akram; Shariff, Zalilah Mohd; Kandiah, Mirnalini; Rashidkhani, Bahram; Fereidooni, Foroozandeh

2013-03-12

Colorectal cancer is the third and fourth leading cause of cancer incidence and mortality among men and women, respectively in Iran. However, the role of dietary factors that could contribute to this high cancer incidence remains unclear. The aim of this study was to determine major dietary patterns and its relationship with colorectal cancer. This case-control study was conducted in four hospitals in Tehran city of Iran. A total of 71 patients (35 men and 36 women, aged 40-75 years) with incident clinically confirmed colorectal cancer (CRC) and 142 controls (70 men and 72 women, aged 40-75 years) admitted to hospital for acute, non-neoplastic diseases were recruited and interviewed. Dietary data were assessed by 125-item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the relationship between dietary patterns and risk of colorectal cancer. Two major dietary patterns (Healthy pattern and Western pattern) were derived using principal component analysis. Each dietary pattern explained 11.9% (Healthy pattern) and 10.3% (Western pattern) of the variation in food intake, respectively. After adjusting for confounding factors, the Healthy dietary pattern was significantly associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer (OR= 0.227; 95% CI=0.108-0.478) while an increased risk of colorectal cancer was observed with the Western dietary pattern (OR=2.616; 95% CI= 1.361-5.030). Specific dietary patterns, which include healthy and western patterns, may be associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. This diet-disease relationship can be used for developing interventions that aim to promote healthy eating for the prevention of chronic disease, particularly colorectal cancer in the Iranian population.

Dietary patterns and risk of colorectal cancer: a systematic review of cohort studies (2000-2011).

PubMed

Yusof, Afzaninawati Suria; Isa, Zaleha Md; Shah, Shamsul Azhar

2012-01-01

This systematic review of cohort studies aimed to identify any association between specific dietary patterns and risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Dietary patterns involve complex interactions of food and nutrients summarizing the total diet or key aspects of the diet for a population under study. This review involves 6 cohort studies of dietary patterns and their association with colorectal cancer. An exploratory or a posteriori approach and a hypothesis-oriented or a priori approach were employed to identify dietary patterns. The dietary pattern identified to be protective against CRC was healthy, prudent, fruits and vegetables, fat reduced/diet foods, vegetables/fish/poultry, fruit/wholegrain/dairy, healthy eating index 2005, alternate healthy eating index, Mediterranean score and recommended food score. An elevated risk of CRC was associated with Western diet, pork processed meat, potatoes, traditional meat eating, and refined grain pattern. The Western dietary pattern which mainly consists of red and processed meat and refined grains is associated with an elevated risk of development of CRC. Protective factors against CRC include a healthy or prudent diet, consisting of vegetables, fruits, fish and poultry.

Colorimetric Topography of Atherosclerotic Lesions by Television Image Processing

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-06-15

image. Indeed, the system is capable of detecting such fine dynamics that epidemiologic factors effecting those changes can not be measured...different occurance patterns and development of clinical atherosclerosis (30). Numerous risk factors have been determined by group comparison and some...techniques and scanners today are much more uniform, and these errors are no longer limiting factors . Since the films were "black and white," and scanned as

El Niño and human health.

PubMed Central

Kovats, R. S.

2000-01-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the best known example of quasi-periodic natural climate variability on the interannual time scale. It comprises changes in sea temperature in the Pacific Ocean (El Niño) and changes in atmospheric pressure across the Pacific Basin (the Southern Oscillation), together with resultant effects on world weather. El Niño events occur at intervals of 2-7 years. In certain countries around the Pacific and beyond, El Niño is associated with extreme weather conditions that can cause floods and drought. Globally it is linked to an increased impact of natural disasters. There is evidence that ENSO is associated with a heightened risk of certain vector-borne diseases in specific geographical areas where weather patterns are linked with the ENSO cycle and disease control is limited. This is particularly true for malaria, but associations are also suggested in respect of epidemics of other mosquito-borne and rodent-borne diseases that can be triggered by extreme weather conditions. Seasonal climate forecasts, predicting the likelihood of weather patterns several months in advance, can be used to provide early indicators of epidemic risk, particularly for malaria. Interdisciplinary research and cooperation are required in order to reduce vulnerability to climate variability and weather extremes. PMID:11019461

Fall risk as a function of time after admission to sub-acute geriatric hospital units.

PubMed

Rapp, Kilian; Ravindren, Johannes; Becker, Clemens; Lindemann, Ulrich; Jaensch, Andrea; Klenk, Jochen

2016-10-07

There is evidence about time-dependent fracture rates in different settings and situations. Lacking are data about underlying time-dependent fall risk patterns. The objective of the study was to analyse fall rates as a function of time after admission to sub-acute hospital units and to evaluate the time-dependent impact of clinical factors at baseline on fall risk. This retrospective cohort study used data of 5,255 patients admitted to sub-acute units in a geriatric rehabilitation clinic in Germany between 2010 and 2014. Falls, personal characteristics and functional status at admission were extracted from the hospital information system. The rehabilitation stay was divided in 3-day time-intervals. The fall rate was calculated for each time-interval in all patients combined and in subgroups of patients. To analyse the influence of covariates on fall risk over time multivariate negative binomial regression models were applied for each of 5 time-intervals. The overall fall rate was 10.2 falls/1,000 person-days with highest fall risks during the first week and decreasing risks within the following weeks. A particularly pronounced risk pattern with high fall risks during the first days and decreasing risks thereafter was observed in men, disoriented people, and people with a low functional status or impaired cognition. In disoriented patients, for example, the fall rate decreased from 24.6 falls/1,000 person-days in day 2-4 to about 13 falls/1,000 person-days 2 weeks later. The incidence rate ratio of baseline characteristics changed also over time. Fall risk differs considerably over time during sub-acute hospitalisation. The strongest association between time and fall risk was observed in functionally limited patients with high risks during the first days after admission and declining risks thereafter. This should be considered in the planning and application of fall prevention measures.

Dietary patterns and breast cancer risk: a study in 2 cohorts.

PubMed

Catsburg, Chelsea; Kim, Ryung S; Kirsh, Victoria A; Soskolne, Colin L; Kreiger, Nancy; Rohan, Thomas E

2015-04-01

Evidence for a role of dietary risk factors in the cause of breast cancer has been inconsistent. The evaluation of overall dietary patterns instead of foods in isolation may better reflect the nature of true dietary exposure in a population. We used 2 cohort studies to identify and confirm associations between dietary patterns and breast cancer risk. Dietary patterns were derived by using a principal components factor analysis in 1097 breast cancer cases and an age-stratified subcohort of 3320 women sampled from 39,532 female participants in the Canadian Study of Diet, Lifestyle and Health (CSDLH). We conducted a confirmatory factor analysis in 49,410 subjects in the National Breast Screening Study (NBSS) in whom 3659 cases of incident breast cancer developed. Cox regression models were used to estimate HRs for the association between derived dietary factors and risk of breast cancer in both cohorts. The following 3 dietary factors were identified from the CSDLH: healthy, ethnic, and meat and potatoes. In the CSDLH, the healthy dietary pattern was associated with reduced risk of breast cancer (HR for high compared with low quintiles: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.91; P-trend = 0.001), and the meat and potatoes dietary pattern was associated with increased risk in postmenopausal women only (HR for high compared with low quintiles: 1.26; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.73; P-trend = 0.043). In the NBSS, the association between the meat and potatoes pattern and postmenopausal breast cancer risk was confirmed (HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.76; P-trend = 0.043), but there was no association between the healthy pattern and risk of breast cancer. Adherence to a plant-based diet that limits red meat intake may be associated with reduced risk of breast cancer, particularly in postmenopausal women. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Sleep patterns, sleep disorders and mammographic density in spanish women: The DDM-Spain/Var-DDM study.

PubMed

Pedraza-Flechas, Ana María; Lope, Virginia; Moreo, Pilar; Ascunce, Nieves; Miranda-García, Josefa; Vidal, Carmen; Sánchez-Contador, Carmen; Santamariña, Carmen; Pedraz-Pingarrón, Carmen; Llobet, Rafael; Aragonés, Nuria; Salas-Trejo, Dolores; Pollán, Marina; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz

2017-05-01

We explored the relationship between sleep patterns and sleep disorders and mammographic density (MD), a marker of breast cancer risk. Participants in the DDM-Spain/var-DDM study, which included 2878 middle-aged Spanish women, were interviewed via telephone and asked questions on sleep characteristics. Two radiologists assessed MD in their left craneo-caudal mammogram, assisted by a validated semiautomatic-computer tool (DM-scan). We used log-transformed percentage MD as the dependent variable and fitted mixed linear regression models, including known confounding variables. Our results showed that neither sleeping patterns nor sleep disorders were associated with MD. However, women with frequent changes in their bedtime due to anxiety or depression had higher MD (e β :1.53;95%CI:1.04-2.26). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impact of the 2008 Economic Crisis on Substance Use Patterns in the Countries of the European Union.

PubMed

Dom, Geert; Samochowiec, Jerzy; Evans-Lacko, Sara; Wahlbeck, Kristian; Van Hal, Guido; McDaid, David

2016-01-13

From 2008 on, a severe economic crisis (EC) has characterized the European Union (E.U.). However, changes in substance use behavioral patterns as a result of the economic crisis in Europe, have been poorly reflected upon, and underlying mechanisms remain to be identified; In this review we explore and systematize the available data on the effect of the 2008 economic crisis on patterns of substance use and related disorders, within the E.U. countries; The results show that effects of the recession need to be differentiated. A number of studies point to reductions in population's overall substance use. In contrast, an increase in harmful use and negative effects is found within specific subgroups within the society. Risk factors include job-loss and long-term unemployment, and pre-existing vulnerabilities. Finally, our findings point to differences between types of substances in their response on economic crisis periods; the effects of the 2008 economic crisis on substance use patterns within countries of the European Union are two-sided. Next to a reduction in a population's overall substance use, a number of vulnerable subgroups experience serious negative effects. These groups are in need of specific attention and support, given that there is a real risk that they will continue to suffer negative health effects long after the economic downfall has formally been ended.

The Impact of the 2008 Economic Crisis on Substance Use Patterns in the Countries of the European Union

PubMed Central

Dom, Geert; Samochowiec, Jerzy; Evans-Lacko, Sara; Wahlbeck, Kristian; Van Hal, Guido; McDaid, David

2016-01-01

Background: From 2008 on, a severe economic crisis (EC) has characterized the European Union (E.U.). However, changes in substance use behavioral patterns as a result of the economic crisis in Europe, have been poorly reflected upon, and underlying mechanisms remain to be identified; Methods: In this review we explore and systematize the available data on the effect of the 2008 economic crisis on patterns of substance use and related disorders, within the E.U. countries; Results: The results show that effects of the recession need to be differentiated. A number of studies point to reductions in population’s overall substance use. In contrast, an increase in harmful use and negative effects is found within specific subgroups within the society. Risk factors include job-loss and long-term unemployment, and pre-existing vulnerabilities. Finally, our findings point to differences between types of substances in their response on economic crisis periods; Conclusions: the effects of the 2008 economic crisis on substance use patterns within countries of the European Union are two-sided. Next to a reduction in a population’s overall substance use, a number of vulnerable subgroups experience serious negative effects. These groups are in need of specific attention and support, given that there is a real risk that they will continue to suffer negative health effects long after the economic downfall has formally been ended. PMID:26771628