Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobanova, Anastasia; Liersch, Stefan; Tàbara, J. David; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

2017-05-01

Conventional water management strategies, that serve solely socio-economic demands and neglect changing natural conditions of the river basins, face significant challenges in governing complex human-hydrological systems, especially in the areas with constrained water availability. In this study we assess the possibility to harmonize the inter-sectoral water allocation scheme within a highly altered human-hydrological system under reduction in water availability, triggered by projected climate change applying scenario-based approach. The Tagus River Basin headwaters, with significant disproportion in the water resources allocation between the environmental and socio-economic targets were taken as a perfect example of such system out of balance. We propose three different water allocation strategies for this region, including two conventional schemes and one imposing shift to sustainable water management and environmental restoration of the river. We combine in one integrated modelling framework the eco-hydrological process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), coupled with the conceptual reservoir and water allocation modules driven by the latest bias-corrected climate projections for the region and investigate possible water allocation scenarios in the region under constrained water availability in the future. Our results show that the socio-economic demands have to be re-considered and lowered under any water allocation strategy, as the climate impacts may significantly reduce water availability in the future. Further, we show that a shift to sustainable water management strategy and river restoration is possible even under reduced water availability. Finally, our results suggest that the adaptation of complex human-hydrological systems to climate change and a shift to a more sustainable water management are likely to be parts of one joint strategy to cope with climate change impacts.

Competing effects of groundwater withdrawals and climate change on water availability in semi-arid India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sishodia, R. P.; Shukla, S.

2017-12-01

India, a global leader in groundwater use (250 km3/yr), is experiencing groundwater depletion. There has been a 130-fold increase in number of irrigation wells since 1960. Anticipated future increase in groundwater demand is likely to exacerbate the water availability in the semi-arid regions of India. Depending on the direction of change, future climate change may either worsen or enhance the water availability. This study uses an integrated hydrologic modeling approach (MIKE SHE MIKE 11) to compare and combine the effects of future (2040-2069) increased groundwater withdrawals and climate change on surface and groundwater flows and availability for an agricultural watershed in semi-arid south India. Modeling results showed that increased groundwater withdrawals in the future resulted in reduced surface flows (25%) and increased frequency and duration (90 days/yr) of well drying. In contrast, projected future increase in rainfall (7-43%) under the changed climate showed increased groundwater recharge (15-67%) and surface flows (9-155%). Modeling results suggest that the positive effects of climate change may enhance the water availability in this semi-arid region of India. However, in combination with increased withdrawals, climate change was shown to increase the well drying and reduce the water availability especially during dry years. A combination of management options such as flood to drip conversion, energy subsidy reductions and water storage can support increased groundwater irrigated area in the future while mitigating the well drying. A cost-benefit analysis showed that dispersed water storage and flood to drip conversion can be highly cost-effective in this semi-arid region. The study results suggest that the government and management policies need to be focused towards an integrated management of demand and supply to create a sustainable food-water-energy nexus in the region.

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Operations and Future Development of the U.S. Electricity System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S. M.; Averyt, K.; Macknick, J.; Meldrum, J.; Sullivan, P.

2014-12-01

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate reliability concerns for the power sector through changes in water availability and air temperatures. The power sector is responsible for 41% of U.S. freshwater withdrawals, primarily for power plant cooling needs, and any changes in the water available for the power sector, given increasing competition among water users, could affect decisions about new power plant builds and reliable operations for existing generators. Similarly, increases in air temperatures can reduce power plant efficiencies, which in turn increases fuel consumption as well as water withdrawal and consumption rates. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water runoff projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) data are applied to surface water available to generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water availability for the 134 electricity balancing regions in the ReEDS model. In addition, air temperature changes are considered for their impacts on electricity load, transmission capacity, and power plant efficiencies and water use rates. Mean climate projections have only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water access to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states, which experience reduced water access purchases and a greater share of water acquired from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

Determining the impacts of climate change and catchment development on future water availability in Tasmania, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, David

2010-05-01

In a water-scarce country such as Australia, detailed, accurate and reliable assessments of current and future water availability are essential in order to adequately manage the limited water resource. This presentation describes a recently completed study which provided an assessment of current water availability in Tasmania, Australia, and also determined how this water availability would be impacted by climate change and proposed catchment development by the year 2030. The Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project (http://www.csiro.au/partnerships/TasSY.html) assessed current water availability through the application of rainfall-runoff models, river models, and recharge and groundwater models. These were calibrated to streamflow records and parameterised using estimates of current groundwater and surface water extractions and use. Having derived a credible estimate of current water availability, the impacts of future climate change on water availability were determined through deriving changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration from 15 IPCC AR4 global climate models. These changes in rainfall were then dynamically downscaled using the CSIRO-CCAM model over the relatively small study area (50,000 square km). A future climate sequence was derived by modifying the historical 84-year climate sequence based on these changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. This future climate sequence was then run through the rainfall-runoff, river, recharge and groundwater models to give an estimate of water availability under future climate. To estimate the impacts of future catchment development on water availability, the models were modified and re-run to reflect projected increases in development. Specifically, outputs from the rainfall-runoff and recharge models were reduced over areas of projected future plantation forestry. Conversely, groundwater recharge was increased over areas of new irrigated agriculture and new extractions of water for irrigation were implemented in the groundwater and river models. Results indicate that historical average water availability across the project area was 21,815 GL/year. Of this, 636 GL/year of surface water and 38 GL/year of groundwater are currently extracted for use. By 2030, rainfall is projected to decrease by an average of 3% over the project area. This decrease in rainfall and concurrent increase in potential evapotranspiration leads to a decrease in water availability of 5% by 2030. As a result of lower streamflows, under current cease-to-take rules, currently licensed extractions are projected to decrease by 3% (19 GL/year). This however is offset by an additional 120 GL/year of extractions for proposed new irrigated agriculture. These new extractions, along with the increase in commercial forest plantations lead to a reduction in total surface water of 1% in addition to the 5% reduction due to climate change. Results from this study are being used by the Tasmanian and Australian governments to guide the development of a sustainable irrigated agriculture industry in Tasmania. In part, this is necessary to offset the loss of irrigated agriculture from the southern Murray-Darling Basin where climate change induced reductions in rainfall are projected to be far worse.

Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir.

PubMed

Nunes, João Pedro; Jacinto, Rita; Keizer, Jan Jacob

2017-04-15

The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water constraints on European power supply under climate change: impacts on electricity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Vögele, Stefan; Rübbelke, Dirk

2013-09-01

Recent warm, dry summers showed the vulnerability of the European power sector to low water availability and high river temperatures. Climate change is likely to impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power production. Here, we show the impacts of climate change and changes in water availability and water temperature on European electricity production and prices. Using simulations of daily river flows and water temperatures under future climate (2031-2060) in power production models, we show declines in both thermoelectric and hydropower generating potential for most parts of Europe, except for the most northern countries. Based on changes in power production potentials, we assess the cost-optimal use of power plants for each European country by taking electricity import and export constraints into account. Higher wholesale prices are projected on a mean annual basis for most European countries (except for Sweden and Norway), with strongest increases for Slovenia (12-15%), Bulgaria (21-23%) and Romania (31-32% for 2031-2060), where limitations in water availability mainly affect power plants with low production costs. Considering the long design life of power plant infrastructures, short-term adaptation strategies are highly recommended to prevent undesired distributional and allocative effects.

The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Quality and Quantity of Freshwater Available to Humans in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, D. M.; Strang, E. T.; Alessa, L.; Hinzman, L.; Kliskey, A.

2005-12-01

The objective of this research is to understand how humans rely on freshwater at local and regional scales in selected parts of the Arctic, how these dependencies have changed in the recent past, and how they are likely to change in the future. The study seeks to incorporate likely effects of climate change on the hydrologic cycle and water availability to humans in the Arctic. The human demand for freshwater has risen dramatically over the past hundred years. Communities on the Seward Peninsula currently rely on both treated and traditional water sources for their drinking water. In many cases, availability of freshwater limits the use of both of these types of water sources. Future water demand predictions suggest that the demand for treated water will increase significantly as water systems are upgraded and the population of the area increases. Preliminary research indicates that water quality may by impacted by hydrologic changes, and further research is underway to determine the extent of these changes and how they will affect drinking water supplies on the Seward Peninsula. Understanding how climate change will impact the hydrology of this area will help minimize the impact these changes have on both engineered water systems and traditional water uses in the future. This presentation provides the most recent results of this research program. This study is being funded under the NSF Arctic System Science Program, Human Dimensions of the Arctic (OPP-0328686).

Assessing groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Pope, Jason P.; Monti, Jack; Nardi, Mark R.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Groundwater Resources Program is conducting an assessment of groundwater availability throughout the United States to gain a better understanding of the status of the Nation's groundwater resources and how changes in land use, water use, and climate may affect those resources. The goal of this National assessment is to improve our ability to forecast water availability for future economic and environmental uses. Assessments will be completed for the Nation's principal aquifer systems to help characterize how much water is currently available, how water availability is changing, and how much water we can expect to have in the future (Reilly and others, 2008). The concept of groundwater availability is more than just how much water can be pumped from any given aquifer. Groundwater availability is a function of many factors, including the quantity and quality of water and the laws, regulations, economics, and environmental factors that control its use. The primary objective of the North Atlantic Coastal Plain groundwater-availability study is to identify spatial and temporal changes in the overall water budget by more fully determining the natural and human processes that control how water enters, moves through, and leaves the groundwater system. Development of tools such as numerical models can help hydrologists gain an understanding of this groundwater system, allowing forecasts to be made about the response of this system to natural and human stresses, and water quality and ecosystem health to be analyzed, throughout the region.

HyCAW: Hydrological Climate change Adaptation Wizard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Broccoli, Davide; Luzzi, Valerio

2016-04-01

Changes in temporal and total water availability due to hydrologic and climate change requires an efficient use of resources through the selection of the best adaptation options. HyCAW provides a novel service to users willing or needing to adapt to hydrological change, by turning available scientific information into a user friendly online wizard that lets to: • Evaluate the monthly reduction of water availability induced by climate change; • Select the best adaptation options and visualize the benefits in terms of water balance and cost reduction; • Quantify potential of water saving by improving of water use efficiency. The tool entails knowledge of the intra-annual distribution of available surface and groundwater flows at a site under present and future (climate change) scenarios. This information is extracted from long term scenario simulation by E-HYPE (European hydrological predictions for the environment) model from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, to quantify the expected evolution in water availability (e.g. percent reduction of soil infiltration and aquifer recharge; relative seasonal shift of runoff from summer to winter in mountain areas; etc.). Users are requested to provide in input their actual water supply on a monthly basis, both from surface and groundwater sources. Appropriate decision trees and an embedded precompiled database of Water saving technology for different sectors (household, agriculture, industrial, tourisms) lead them to interactively identify good practices for water saving/recycling/harvesting that they may implement in their specific context. Thanks to this service, users are not required to have a detailed understanding neither of data nor of hydrological processes, but may benefit of scientific analysis directly for practical adaptation in a simple and user friendly way, effectively improving their adaptation capacity. The tool is being developed under a collaborative FP7 funded project called SWITCH-ON (EU FP7 project No 603587) coordinated by SMHI (http://water-switch-on.eu/) and online demo is available at www.gecosistema.com/switchon

Reconstructing the role of landuse change on water yield at the Maya urban center Tikal, Guatemala [700-800 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, L.; Duffy, C.; French, K. D.; Murtha, T., Jr.; Garcia-Gonzalez, S. E.

2014-12-01

In recent years scientists have been debating the role of climate on the trajectory of Maya culture in the Late Classic period, 600-900 AD. Paleo-climatologists have reconstructed realizations of climate [Haug 2003; Medina-Elizalde 2012; Hodell 1995] that offer evidence for reduced precipitation in the Late Classic period. Recently French et al [2014] proposed that landuse change may also play an important role in the available water supply at Tikal, with the removal of tropical forest and conversion to maize-agriculture and urban landuse leading to extensive development of sophisticated water storage systems and rainfall harvesting for water supply and irrigation. Rapid population growth is a concurrent and compounding factor [Scarborough 2012; Shaw 2003] where landuse impacts the distribution and availability of water storage in the surrounding watershed. Although proposed climate scenarios for the Late Classic offer a quantitative scenario for possible atmospheric conditions at Tikal, the impact of land use change on the distribution and availability of water supply has not been evaluated. In this research we reconstruct the plausible vulnerability of the water supply at Tikal under the combined forces of climatic and land use change. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) [Qu and Duffy 2007] is used to simulate the daily-to-seasonal space and time distribution of soil moisture, groundwater and surface water storage for the period 700-800 AD, the peak of Tikal's population history. The analysis includes a quantitative assessment of the likely changes in available water storage as tropical forest is converted to maize agriculture and urban land. In particular we examine the important control that reduced canopy interception plays in the seasonal availability of water. Preliminary simulations suggest that removing tropical forest increases runoff and available water storage, which may serve to moderate seasonal and long-term drought conditions.

Habitat Selection by African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in Response to Landscape-Level Fluctuations in Water Availability on Two Temporal Scales

PubMed Central

Bennitt, Emily; Bonyongo, Mpaphi Casper; Harris, Stephen

2014-01-01

Seasonal fluctuations in water availability cause predictable changes in the profitability of habitats in tropical ecosystems, and animals evolve adaptive behavioural and spatial responses to these fluctuations. However, stochastic changes in the distribution and abundance of surface water between years can alter resource availability at a landscape scale, causing shifts in animal behaviour. In the Okavango Delta, Botswana, a flood-pulsed ecosystem, the volume of water entering the system doubled between 2008 and 2009, creating a sudden change in the landscape. We used African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) to test the hypotheses that seasonal habitat selection would be related to water availability, that increased floodwater levels would decrease forage abundance and affect habitat selection, and that this would decrease buffalo resting time, reduce reproductive success and decrease body condition. Buffalo selected contrasting seasonal habitats, using habitats far from permanent water during the rainy season and seasonally-flooded habitats close to permanent water during the early and late flood seasons. The 2009 water increase reduced forage availability in seasonally-flooded habitats, removing a resource buffer used by the buffalo during the late flood season, when resources were most limited. In response, buffalo used drier habitats in 2009, although there was no significant change in the time spent moving or resting, or daily distance moved. While their reproductive success decreased in 2009, body condition increased. A protracted period of high water levels could prove detrimental to herbivores, especially to smaller-bodied species that require high quality forage. Stochastic annual fluctuations in water levels, predicted to increase as a result of anthropogenically-induced climate change, are likely to have substantial impacts on the functioning of water-driven tropical ecosystems, affecting environmental conditions within protected areas. Buffer zones around critical seasonal resources are essential to allow animals to engage in compensatory behavioural and spatial mechanisms in response to changing environmental conditions. PMID:24983377

Habitat selection by African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in response to landscape-level fluctuations in water availability on two temporal scales.

PubMed

Bennitt, Emily; Bonyongo, Mpaphi Casper; Harris, Stephen

2014-01-01

Seasonal fluctuations in water availability cause predictable changes in the profitability of habitats in tropical ecosystems, and animals evolve adaptive behavioural and spatial responses to these fluctuations. However, stochastic changes in the distribution and abundance of surface water between years can alter resource availability at a landscape scale, causing shifts in animal behaviour. In the Okavango Delta, Botswana, a flood-pulsed ecosystem, the volume of water entering the system doubled between 2008 and 2009, creating a sudden change in the landscape. We used African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) to test the hypotheses that seasonal habitat selection would be related to water availability, that increased floodwater levels would decrease forage abundance and affect habitat selection, and that this would decrease buffalo resting time, reduce reproductive success and decrease body condition. Buffalo selected contrasting seasonal habitats, using habitats far from permanent water during the rainy season and seasonally-flooded habitats close to permanent water during the early and late flood seasons. The 2009 water increase reduced forage availability in seasonally-flooded habitats, removing a resource buffer used by the buffalo during the late flood season, when resources were most limited. In response, buffalo used drier habitats in 2009, although there was no significant change in the time spent moving or resting, or daily distance moved. While their reproductive success decreased in 2009, body condition increased. A protracted period of high water levels could prove detrimental to herbivores, especially to smaller-bodied species that require high quality forage. Stochastic annual fluctuations in water levels, predicted to increase as a result of anthropogenically-induced climate change, are likely to have substantial impacts on the functioning of water-driven tropical ecosystems, affecting environmental conditions within protected areas. Buffer zones around critical seasonal resources are essential to allow animals to engage in compensatory behavioural and spatial mechanisms in response to changing environmental conditions.

European scale climate information services for water use sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Donnelly, Chantal; Strömbäck, Lena; Capell, René; Ludwig, Fulco

2015-09-01

This study demonstrates a climate information service for pan-European water use sectors that are vulnerable to climate change induced hydrological changes, including risk and safety (disaster preparedness), agriculture, energy (hydropower and cooling water use for thermoelectric power) and environment (water quality). To study the climate change impacts we used two different hydrological models forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the lowest (2.6) and highest (8.5) representative concentration pathways (RCP). Selected indicators of water related vulnerability for each sector were then calculated from the hydrological model results. Our results show a distinct north-south divide in terms of climate change impacts; in the south the water availability will reduce while in the north water availability will increase. Across different climate models precipitation and streamflow increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, but the latitude at which this change occurs varies depending on the GCM. Hydrological extremes are increasing over large parts of Europe. The agricultural sector will be affected by reduced water availability (in the south) and increased drought. Both streamflow and soil moistures droughts are projected to increase in most parts of Europe except in northern Scandinavia and the Alps. The energy sector will be affected by lower hydropower potential in most European countries and reduced cooling water availability due to higher water temperatures and reduced summer river flows. Our results show that in particular in the Mediterranean the pressures are high because of increasing drought which will have large impacts on both the agriculture and energy sectors. In France and Italy this is combined with increased flood hazards. Our results show important impacts of climate change on European water use sectors indicating a clear need for adaptation.

Open Source Tools for Assessment of Global Water Availability, Demands, and Scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Vernon, C. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Link, R. P.; Liu, Y.; Feng, L.; Huang, Z.; Liu, L.

2017-12-01

Water availability and water demands are essential factors for estimating water scarcity conditions. To reproduce historical observations and to quantify future changes in water availability and water demand, two open source tools have been developed by the JGCRI (Joint Global Change Research Institute): Xanthos and GCAM-STWD. Xanthos is a gridded global hydrologic model, designed to quantify and analyze water availability in 235 river basins. Xanthos uses a runoff generation and a river routing modules to simulate both historical and future estimates of total runoff and streamflows on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD is a spatiotemporal water disaggregation model used with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to spatially downscale global water demands for six major enduse sectors (irrigation, domestic, electricity generation, mining, and manufacturing) from the region scale to the scale of 0.5 degrees. GCAM-STWD then temporally downscales the gridded annual global water demands to monthly results. These two tools, written in Python, can be integrated to assess global, regional or basin-scale water scarcity or water stress. Both of the tools are extensible to ensure flexibility and promote contribution from researchers that utilize GCAM and study global water use and supply.

Impact of climate change on waterborne diseases.

PubMed

Funari, Enzo; Manganelli, Maura; Sinisi, Luciana

2012-01-01

Change in climate and water cycle will challenge water availability but it will also increase the exposure to unsafe water. Floods, droughts, heavy storms, changes in rain pattern, increase of temperature and sea level, they all show an increasing trend worldwide and will affect biological, physical and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. This paper is intended, through reviewing the available literature, to highlight environmental changes and critical situations caused by floods, drought and warmer temperature that will lead to an increase of exposure to water related pathogens, chemical hazards and cyanotoxins. The final aim is provide knowledge-based elements for more focused adaptation measures.

The Future of Water Security in Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo Through Different Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gesualdo, G. C.; Oliveira, P. T. S.; Rodrigues, D. B. B.

2017-12-01

Achieving a balance between water availability and demand is one of the most pressing environmental challenges in the twenty-first century. This challenge is exacerbated by, climate change, which has already affected the water balance of landscapes globally by intensifying runoff, reducing snowpacks, and shifting precipitation regimes. Understanding these changes is crucial to identifying future water availability and developing sustainable management plans, especially in developing countries. Here, we address the developing country water balance challenge by assessing the influence of climate change on the water availability in the Jaguari basin, Southeastern Brazil. The Jaguari basin is one of the main sources of freshwater for 9 million people in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. This region represents about 7% of the Brazil's Gross Domestic Product. The critical importance of the water balance challenge in this area has been highlighted recently when a major drought in southeastern Brazil revealed the vulnerability of current water management systems. Still today, the per capita water availability in the region remains severely limited. To help address this water balance challenge, we use a modeling approach to predict future water vulnerabilities of this region under different climate scenarios. Here, we calibrated and validated a lumped conceptual model using HYMOD to evaluate future scenarios using downscaled climate models resulting from HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 GCMs forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We also present future directions which include bias correction from long-term weather station data and an empirical uncertainty assessment. Our results provide an important overview of climate change impacts on streamflow and future water availability in the Jaguari basin, which can be used to guide the basin`s water security plans and strategies.

Warming and elevated CO2 interact to alter seasonality and reduce variability of soil water in a semiarid grassland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global changes that alter the amount and timing of plant-available water may have profound effects on arid and semi-arid ecosystems. In addition to predicted changes in precipitation, both elevated CO2 and warming can alter water availability, often in opposite ways. Few studies, however, have measu...

Influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China.

PubMed

Sun, Wenchao; Wang, Jie; Li, Zhanjie; Yao, Xiaolei; Yu, Jingshan

2014-01-01

The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer.

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

Climate change impact on water resources - Example of an anthropized basin (Llobregat, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, P.-A.; Pouget, L.; Mc Ennis, S.; Guiu Carrio, R.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Escaler, I.

2012-04-01

The impact of climate change is one of the central topics of study by water agencies and companies. Indeed, the forecasted increase of atmospheric temperature may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation and affect the hydrological cycle: runoff, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc… Moreover, global change combining climate change but also land use and water demand changes, may cause very important impacts on water availability and quality. Global change scenarios in Spain describe a general trend towards increased temperature and water demand, and reduced precipitation as a result of its geographical situation and socio-economic characteristics. The European project WATER CHANGE (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program) aims to develop a modeling system to assess the Global Change impacts, and their associated uncertainties, on water availability for water supply and water use. Its objective is to help river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. This work presents the results obtained by applying the modelling system to the Llobregat river basin (Spain). This is an anthropized catchment of about 5000 km2, where water resources are used for different purposes, such as drinking water production, agriculture irrigation, industry and hydroelectric energy production. Based on future global change scenarios, the water resources system has been assessed in terms of water deficit and supply. A cost-benefit analysis has also been conducted in order to evaluate every realistic measure that could optimize and improve the system.

Impact of climate change on water quality of an impaired New Mexico river

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is predicted to advance runoff timing in snowmelt basins and decrease available water, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Researchers have suggested that the impacts of climate change will degrade water quality by reducing dilution. We use coupled snowmelt and water quality m...

Effects of climate change on snowpack, glaciers, and water resources in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 4

Treesearch

Charles H. Luce

2018-01-01

Water is critical to life, and the effects of climate change on ecosystems are mediated through changes in hydrology. Changes in how snow accumulates and melts are one of the more consistently noted climate-induced changes to water in the western United States (Barnett et al. 2005; Service 2004), and these changes affect when water will be available for forests and...

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Effects of climate change on hydrology, water resources, and soil [Chapter 4

Treesearch

Mark J. Muir; Charles H. Luce; Joseph T. Gurrieri; Marek Matyjasik; Jeffrey L. Bruggink; Stacey L. Weems; James C. Hurja; David B. Marr; Sarah D. Leahy

2018-01-01

Water is critical to life, and many of the effects of climate change on ecosystems are mediated through altered hydrology. Snow accumulation and melt are consistently cited as the most important changes to water in the western United States (Barnett et al. 2005; Service 2004), affecting when water will be available for forests, fish, and people. Changes in summer...

Water System Adaptation to Hydrological Changes: Module 1, Introduction to Water System Adaptation

EPA Science Inventory

Contemporary water management requires resilience, the ability to meet ever increasing water needs, and capacity to adapt to abrupt or transient changes in water quality and availability. For this purpose, effective adaptation to extreme hydrological events (e.g. intense storms, ...

Sensitivity of greenhouse summer dryness to changes in plant rooting characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

1997-01-01

A possible consequence of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere is "summer dryness," a decrease of summer plant-available soil water in middle latitudes, caused by increased availability of energy to drive evapotranspiration. Results from a numerical climate model indicate that summer dryness and related changes of land-surface water balances are highly sensitive to possible concomitant changes of plant-available water-holding capacity of soil, which depends on plant rooting depth and density. The model suggests that a 14% decrease of the soil volume whose water is accessible to plant roots would generate the same summer dryness, by one measure, as an equilibrium doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Conversely, a 14% increase of that soil volume would be sufficient to offset the summer dryness associated with carbon-dioxide doubling. Global and regional changes in rooting depth and density may result from (1) plant and plant-community responses to greenhouse warming, to carbon-dioxide fertilization, and to associated changes in the water balance and (2) anthropogenic deforestation and desertification. Given their apparently critical role, heretofore ignored, in global hydroclimatic change, such changes of rooting characteristics should be carefully evaluated using ecosystem observations, theory, and models.

Assessment of water availability and demand in Lake Guiers , Senegal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sambou, D.; Weihrauch, D.; Hellwing, V.; Diekkrüger, B.; Höllermann, B.; Gaye, A. T.

2015-12-01

Assessment of water availability and demand in Lake Guiers, SenegalWater resources are critical to economic growth and social development. In most African countries, supply of drinking water to satisfy population needs is a key issue because of population growth and climate and land use change. During the last three decades, increasing population, changing patterns of water demand, and concentration of population and economic activities in urban areas has pressurize Senegal's freshwater resources. To overcome this deficit, Senegal turned, to the exploitation of the Lake Guiers. It is the sole water reservoir which can be used extensively as a stable freshwater. Its water is use for irrigating crops and sugar refinery and as a drinking water resource for urban centres, including Dakar, the capital city of Senegal, as well as for the local population and animal herds. To ensure sustainability, a greater understanding of Lake Guiers's water resources and effective management of its use will be required. In this study we developed and quantified future water situation (water availability and demand) in Lake Guiers under scenarios of climate change and population growth until 2050, using the water management model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). The results show that the pressure on Lake Guiers's water resources will increase, leading to greater competition between agriculture and municipal demand site. Decreasing inflows due to climate change will aggravate this situation. WEAP results offer basis to assister lake Guiers water resources manager for an efficient long-term planning and management. Keywords: climate change, population growth , IWRM, Lake Guiers, Senegal

Hindcast of water availability in regional aquifer systems using MODFLOW Farm Process

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmid, Wolfgang; Hanson, Randall T.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Phillips, Steven P.

2015-01-01

Coupled groundwater and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle can be simulated by the Farm Process for MODFLOW (MF-FMP) in both irrigated and non-irrigated areas and aquifer-storage and recovery systems. MF-FMP is being applied to three productive agricultural regions of different scale in the State of California, USA, to assess the availability of water and the impacts of alternative management decisions. Hindcast simulations are conducted for similar periods from the 1960s to near recent times. Historical groundwater pumpage is mostly unknown in one region (Central Valley) and is estimated by MF-FMP. In another region (Pajaro Valley), recorded pumpage is used to calibrate model-estimated pumpage. Multiple types of observations are used to estimate uncertain parameters, such as hydraulic, land-use, and farm properties. MF-FMP simulates how climate variability and water-import availability affect water demand and supply. MF-FMP can be used to predict water availability based on anticipated changes in anthropogenic or natural water demands. Keywords groundwater; surface-water; irrigation; water availability; response to climate variability/change

A STRATEGY FOR FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO SUPPORT WATER AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The status of the Nation’s water resources will continue to change with growing population, increasing urbanization, changing industrial and agricultural practices, and changing climate. Science can inform us about the status of our water resources and help us anticipate the likely effects of water-...

Climate change, livelihoods and the multiple determinants of water adequacy: two approaches at regional to global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lissner, Tabea; Reusser, Dominik

2015-04-01

Inadequate access to water is already a problem in many regions of the world and processes of global change are expected to further exacerbate the situation. Many aspects determine the adequacy of water resources: beside actual physical water stress, where the resource itself is limited, economic and social water stress can be experienced if access to resource is limited by inadequate infrastructure, political or financial constraints. To assess the adequacy of water availability for human use, integrated approaches are needed that allow to view the multiple determinants in conjunction and provide sound results as a basis for informed decisions. This contribution proposes two parts of an integrated approach to look at the multiple dimensions of water scarcity at regional to global scale. These were developed in a joint project with the German Development Agency (GIZ). It first outlines the AHEAD approach to measure Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development, implemented at global scale and at national resolution. This first approach allows viewing impacts of climate change, e.g. changes in water availability, within the wider context of AHEAD conditions. A specific focus lies on the uncertainties in projections of climate change and future water availability. As adequate water access is not determined by water availability alone, in a second step we develop an approach to assess the water requirements for different sectors in more detail, including aspects of quantity, quality as well as access, in an integrated way. This more detailed approach is exemplified at region-scale in Indonesia and South Africa. Our results show that in many regions of the world, water scarcity is a limitation to AHEAD conditions in many countries, regardless of differing modelling output. The more detailed assessments highlight the relevance of additional aspects to assess the adequacy of water for human use, showing that in many regions, quality and infrastructure are the main limitations to water security.

Aerial and surface rivers: downwind impacts on water availability from land use changes in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Wei; Luedeke, Matthias K. B.; Zemp, Delphine C.; Lakes, Tobia; Kropp, Juergen P.

2018-02-01

The abundant evapotranspiration provided by the Amazon forests is an important component of the hydrological cycle, both regionally and globally. Since the last century, deforestation and expanding agricultural activities have been changing the ecosystem and its provision of moisture to the atmosphere. However, it remains uncertain how the ongoing land use change will influence rainfall, runoff, and water availability as findings from previous studies differ. Using moisture tracking experiments based on observational data, we provide a spatially detailed analysis recognizing potential teleconnection between source and sink regions of atmospheric moisture. We apply land use scenarios in upwind moisture sources and quantify the corresponding rainfall and runoff changes in downwind moisture sinks. We find spatially varying responses of water regimes to land use changes, which may explain the diverse results from previous studies. Parts of the Peruvian Amazon and western Bolivia are identified as the sink areas most sensitive to land use change in the Amazon and we highlight the current water stress by Amazonian land use change on these areas in terms of the water availability. Furthermore, we also identify the influential source areas where land use change may considerably reduce a given target sink's water reception (from our example of the Ucayali River basin outlet, rainfall by 5-12 % and runoff by 19-50 % according to scenarios). Sensitive sinks and influential sources are therefore suggested as hotspots for achieving sustainable land-water management.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.; Vecchia, A.V.

2005-01-01

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.

PubMed

Milly, P C D; Dunne, K A; Vecchia, A V

2005-11-17

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Sensitivity of power system operations to projected changes in water availability due to climate change: the Western U.S. case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Macknick, J.; Fu, T.; O'Connell, M.; Zhou, T.; Brinkman, G.

2017-12-01

Water resources provide multiple critical services to the electrical grid through hydropower technologies, from generation to regulation of the electric grid (frequency, capacity reserve). Water resources can also represent vulnerabilities to the electric grid, as hydropower and thermo-electric facilities require water for operations. In the Western U.S., hydropower and thermo-electric plants that rely on fresh surface water represent 67% of the generating capacity. Prior studies have looked at the impact of change in water availability under future climate conditions on expected generating capacity in the Western U.S., but have not evaluated operational risks or changes resulting from climate. In this study, we systematically assess the impact of change in water availability and air temperatures on power operations, i.e. we take into account the different grid services that water resources can provide to the electric grid (generation, regulation) in the system-level context of inter-regional coordination through the electric transmission network. We leverage the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) hydrology simulations under historical and future climate conditions, and force the large scale river routing- water management model MOSART-WM along with 2010-level sectoral water demands. Changes in monthly hydropower potential generation (including generation and reserves), as well as monthly generation capacity of thermo-electric plants are derived for each power plant in the Western U.S. electric grid. We then utilize the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions for the 2010 infrastructure under 100 years of historical and future (2050 horizon) hydroclimate conditions. We use economic metrics as well as operational metrics such as generation portfolio, emissions, and reserve margins to assess the changes in power system operations between historical and future normal and extreme water availability conditions. We provide insight on how this information can be used to support resource adequacy and grid expansion studies over the Western U.S. in the context of inter-annual variability and climate change.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM atmore » the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.« less

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Calvin, K.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model - namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) - is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095, particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase, driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

Influences of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability in Jinjiang Basin, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Jie; Li, Zhanjie; Yao, Xiaolei

2014-01-01

The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer. PMID:24701192

Evaluating changes to reservoir rule curves using historical water-level data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mower, Ethan; Miranda, Leandro E.

2013-01-01

Flood control reservoirs are typically managed through rule curves (i.e. target water levels) which control the storage and release timing of flood waters. Changes to rule curves are often contemplated and requested by various user groups and management agencies with no information available about the actual flood risk of such requests. Methods of estimating flood risk in reservoirs are not easily available to those unfamiliar with hydrological models that track water movement through a river basin. We developed a quantile regression model that uses readily available daily water-level data to estimate risk of spilling. Our model provided a relatively simple process for estimating the maximum applicable water level under a specific flood risk for any day of the year. This water level represents an upper-limit umbrella under which water levels can be operated in a variety of ways. Our model allows the visualization of water-level management under a user-specified flood risk and provides a framework for incorporating the effect of a changing environment on water-level management in reservoirs, but is not designed to replace existing hydrological models. The model can improve communication and collaboration among agencies responsible for managing natural resources dependent on reservoir water levels.

76 FR 31973 - Draft WaterSMART Strategic Implementation Plan

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-02

... best available science to understand the impacts of climate change on water supplies; and provide... and time. It is increasingly recognized that water is the primary means through which climate change... environment, and will identify adaptive measures needed to address climate change and future demands. Within...

Modeling Electricity Sector Vulnerabilities and Costs Associated with Water Temperatures Under Scenarios of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.

2014-12-01

The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.

Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh.

PubMed

Faisal, Islam M; Parveen, Saila

2004-10-01

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.

Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change.

PubMed

Shadkam, Somayeh; Ludwig, Fulco; van Vliet, Michelle T H; Pastor, Amandine; Kabat, Pavel

2016-07-15

Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10(9)m(3) water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2015-04-01

The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem. The analyses show that there will be much more water available in future under the considered emission scenarios but in some months there will be scarcity of water. However, by proper management and optimum utilization of the available water, the scarcity of water can be minimized considerably. Finally, a meta-analysis has been performed to present a combined picture of all scenarios considered in this study. One way to avoid water scarcity is to upgrade and install new reservoirs and water storage capacities to reserve the extra water during high river flow in Indus River, which will then be utilized during low river flow. __________________________________________________________________________________ KEY WORDS: Agriculture, Climate Change, Hydro-power, Indus River, Tarbela Reservoir, Upper Indus Basin, Meta-analysis, Hydrological model.

Potential impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity and water availability in China in the next 100 years

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer Moore; Corey Bunch; Jian Ni

2002-01-01

Soil erosion and water shortages threaten China’s social and economic development in the 21st century. This paper examines how projected climate change could affect soil erosion and water availability across China. We used both historical climate data (1961-1980) and the UKMO Hadley3 climate scenario (1960-2099) to drive regional hydrology and soil erosivity models....

The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

2012-12-01

We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total renewable freshwater available in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, 20% and 27% of the global population in years 2050 and 2095, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of renewable water available in a year (i.e., WSI > 1.0). We also investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water demand and compare them to the contribution of socioeconomic drivers both globally and regionally. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 in year 2095, under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. With more stringent climate mitigation targets, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy while increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food, energy, and land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

Tracing the influence of land-use change on water quality and coral reefs using a Bayesian model.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; Jupiter, Stacy D; Albert, Simon; Klein, Carissa J; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Maina, Joseph M; Mumby, Peter; Olley, Jon; Stewart-Koster, Ben; Tulloch, Vivitskaia; Wenger, Amelia

2017-07-06

Coastal ecosystems can be degraded by poor water quality. Tracing the causes of poor water quality back to land-use change is necessary to target catchment management for coastal zone management. However, existing models for tracing the sources of pollution require extensive data-sets which are not available for many of the world's coral reef regions that may have severe water quality issues. Here we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that uses freely available satellite data to infer the connection between land-uses in catchments and water clarity in coastal oceans. We apply the model to estimate the influence of land-use change on water clarity in Fiji. We tested the model's predictions against underwater surveys, finding that predictions of poor water quality are consistent with observations of high siltation and low coverage of sediment-sensitive coral genera. The model thus provides a means to link land-use change to declines in coastal water quality.

Metabolomic response of Calotropis procera growing in the desert to changes in water availability.

PubMed

Ramadan, Ahmed; Sabir, Jamal S M; Alakilli, Saleha Y M; Shokry, Ahmed M; Gadalla, Nour O; Edris, Sherif; Al-Kordy, Magdy A; Al-Zahrani, Hassan S; El-Domyati, Fotouh M; Bahieldin, Ahmed; Baker, Neil R; Willmitzer, Lothar; Irgang, Susann

2014-01-01

Water availability is a major limitation for agricultural productivity. Plants growing in severe arid climates such as deserts provide tools for studying plant growth and performance under extreme drought conditions. The perennial species Calotropis procera used in this study is a shrub growing in many arid areas which has an exceptional ability to adapt and be productive in severe arid conditions. We describe the results of studying the metabolomic response of wild C procera plants growing in the desert to a one time water supply. Leaves of C. procera plants were taken at three time points before and 1 hour, 6 hours and 12 hours after watering and subjected to a metabolomics and lipidomics analysis. Analysis of the data reveals that within one hour after watering C. procera has already responded on the metabolic level to the sudden water availability as evidenced by major changes such as increased levels of most amino acids, a decrease in sucrose, raffinose and maltitol, a decrease in storage lipids (triacylglycerols) and an increase in membrane lipids including photosynthetic membranes. These changes still prevail at the 6 hour time point after watering however 12 hours after watering the metabolomics data are essentially indistinguishable from the prewatering state thus demonstrating not only a rapid response to water availability but also a rapid response to loss of water. Taken together these data suggest that the ability of C. procera to survive under the very harsh drought conditions prevailing in the desert might be associated with its rapid adjustments to water availability and losses.

Metabolomic Response of Calotropis procera Growing in the Desert to Changes in Water Availability

PubMed Central

Ramadan, Ahmed; Sabir, Jamal S. M.; Alakilli, Saleha Y. M.; Shokry, Ahmed M.; Gadalla, Nour O.; Edris, Sherif; Al-Kordy, Magdy A.; Al-Zahrani, Hassan S.; El-Domyati, Fotouh M.; Bahieldin, Ahmed; Baker, Neil R.; Willmitzer, Lothar; Irgang, Susann

2014-01-01

Water availability is a major limitation for agricultural productivity. Plants growing in severe arid climates such as deserts provide tools for studying plant growth and performance under extreme drought conditions. The perennial species Calotropis procera used in this study is a shrub growing in many arid areas which has an exceptional ability to adapt and be productive in severe arid conditions. We describe the results of studying the metabolomic response of wild C procera plants growing in the desert to a one time water supply. Leaves of C. procera plants were taken at three time points before and 1 hour, 6 hours and 12 hours after watering and subjected to a metabolomics and lipidomics analysis. Analysis of the data reveals that within one hour after watering C. procera has already responded on the metabolic level to the sudden water availability as evidenced by major changes such as increased levels of most amino acids, a decrease in sucrose, raffinose and maltitol, a decrease in storage lipids (triacylglycerols) and an increase in membrane lipids including photosynthetic membranes. These changes still prevail at the 6 hour time point after watering however 12 hours after watering the metabolomics data are essentially indistinguishable from the prewatering state thus demonstrating not only a rapid response to water availability but also a rapid response to loss of water. Taken together these data suggest that the ability of C. procera to survive under the very harsh drought conditions prevailing in the desert might be associated with its rapid adjustments to water availability and losses. PMID:24520340

Estimating changes in heat energy stored within a column of wetland surface water and factors controlling their importance in the surface energy budget

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoemaker, W. Barclay; Sumner, David M.; Castillo, Adrian

2005-01-01

Changes in heat energy stored within a column of wetland surface water can be a considerable component of the surface energy budget, an attribute that is demonstrated by comparing changes in stored heat energy to net radiation at seven sites in the wetland areas of southern Florida, including the Everglades. The magnitude of changes in stored heat energy approached the magnitude of net radiation more often during the winter dry season than during the summer wet season. Furthermore, the magnitude of changes in stored heat energy in wetland surface water generally decreased as surface energy budgets were upscaled temporally. A new method was developed to estimate changes in stored heat energy that overcomes an important data limitation, namely, the limited spatial and temporal availability of water temperature measurements. The new method is instead based on readily available air temperature measurements and relies on the convolution of air temperature changes with a regression‐defined transfer function to estimate changes in water temperature. The convolution‐computed water temperature changes are used with water depths and heat capacity to estimate changes in stored heat energy within the Everglades wetland areas. These results likely can be adapted to other humid subtropical wetlands characterized by open water, saw grass, and rush vegetation type communities.

Water impact studies. [impact of remote sensing techniques on management storage, flow, and delivery of California water

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colwell, R. N.

1973-01-01

An investigation has begun into the potential impact of using modern remote sensing techniques as an aid in managing, even on a day-to-day basis, the storage, flow, and delivery of water made available through the California Water Project. It is obvious that the amount of this impact depends upon the extent to which remote sensing is proven to be useful in improving predictions of both the amount of water that will be available and the amount that will be needed. It is also proposed to investigate the potential impact of remote sensing techniques as an aid in monitoring, and perhaps even in directing, changes in land use and life style being brought about through the increased availability of water in central and southern California as a result of the California Water Project. The impact of remote sensing can be of appreciable significance only if: (1) the induced changes are very substantial ones; (2) remote sensing is found, in this context, to be very useful and potentially very cost effective; and (3) resource managers adopt this new technology. Analyses will be conducted of the changing economic bases and the new land use demands resulting from increased water availability in central and southern California.

Thermal remote sensing of crop water status: pros and cons of two different approaches

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent climate change has lead, in many places around the world, to a decrease in the availability of water resources. This limited water availability is decreasing the cost-effectiveness of irrigated agricultural crops, and practices reducing the required amount of water without decreasing the qua...

Thermal remote sensing of crop water status: pros and cons of two different approaches

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent climate change has lead, in many places around the world, to a decrease in the availability of fresh water resources. This limited water availability decreases the cost-effectiveness of irrigated agricultural crops, and increases the desirability of practices that reduce applied water withou...

Understanding Changes in Water Availability in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo del Norte Basin Under the Influence of Large-Scale Circulation Indices Using the Noah Land Surface Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khedun, C. Prakash; Mishra, Ashok K.; Bolten, John D.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Kaiser, Ronald A.; Giardino, J. Richard; Singh, Vijay P.

2012-01-01

Water availability plays an important role in the socio-economic development of a region. It is however, subject to the influence of large-scale circulation indices, resulting in periodic excesses and deficits. An assessment of the degree of correlation between climate indices and water availability, and the quantification of changes with respect to major climate events is important for long-term water resources planning and management, especially in transboundary basins as it can help in conflict avoidance. In this study we first establish the correlation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with gauged precipitation in the Rio Grande basin, and quantify the changes in water availability using runoff generated from the Noah land surface model. Both spatial and temporal variations are noted, with winter and spring being most influenced by conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Negative correlation is observed at the headwaters and positive correlation across the rest of the basin. The influence of individual ENSO events, classified using four different criteria, is also examined. El Ninos (La Ninas) generally cause an increase (decrease) in runoff, but the pattern is not consistent; percentage change in water availability varies across events. Further, positive PDO enhances the effect of El Nino and dampens that of La Nina, but during neutral/transitioning PDO, La Nina dominates meteorological conditions. Long El Ninos have more influence on water availability than short duration high intensity events. We also note that the percentage increase during El Ninos significantly offsets the drought-causing effect of La Ninas.

Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert I.; Green, Pamela; Balk, Deborah; Fekete, Balazs M.; Revenga, Carmen; Todd, Megan; Montgomery, Mark

2011-01-01

Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations. PMID:21444797

Spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics in the Northeastern United States from the Colonial Era through the Industrial Revolution (1600-1920)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witherell, B. B.; Bain, D. J.; Salant, N.; Aloysius, N. R.

2009-12-01

Humans impact the hydrologic cycle at local, regional and global scales. Understanding how spatial patterns of human water use and hydrologic impact have changed over time is important to future water management in an era of increasing water constraints and globalization of high water-use resources. This study investigates spatial dependence and spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics for the Northeastern United States from 1600 to 1920 through the use of spatial statistical techniques. Several relevant hydro-social metrics, including water residence time, surface water storage (natural and human engineered) and per capita water availability, are analyzed. This study covers a region and period of time that saw significant population growth, landscape change, and industrial growth. These changes had important impacts on water availability. Although some changes such as the elimination of beavers, and the resulting loss of beaver ponds on low-order streams, are felt at a regional scale, preliminary analysis indicates that humans responded to water constraints by acting locally (e.g., mill ponds for water power and water supply reservoirs for public health). This 320-year historical analysis of spatial patterns of hydro-social metrics provides unique insight into long-term changes in coupled human-water systems.

Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

2013-04-01

Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers decisions, the operation of the upstream reservoir (Como Lake) is optimised with respect to the real irrigation demand of the crops. Then, the farmers can re-adapt their decisions according with the new optimal operating strategy, thus activating a loop between the two systems that exchange expected supply and irrigation demand. Results show that the proposed interaction between farmers and water managers is able to enhance the efficiency of water management practices, foster crop production and mitigate climate change impacts.

40 CFR 142.306 - What are the responsibilities of the public water system, State and the Administrator in ensuring...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) Alternative sources of water supply; (iii) Restructuring or consolidation changes, including ownership change... public water system, State and the Administrator in ensuring that sufficient information is available and... Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) NATIONAL PRIMARY DRINKING...

40 CFR 142.306 - What are the responsibilities of the public water system, State and the Administrator in ensuring...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...) Alternative sources of water supply; (iii) Restructuring or consolidation changes, including ownership change... public water system, State and the Administrator in ensuring that sufficient information is available and... Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) NATIONAL PRIMARY DRINKING...

77 FR 76034 - National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-26

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OW-2011-0943; FRL9716-6] National Water Program 2012... availability. SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is publishing the final ``National Water...-term visions and goals for the management of water resources in light of climate change and charts key...

Changes in continental Europe water cycle in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouholahnejad, Elham; Schirmer, Mario; Abbaspour, Karim

2015-04-01

Changes in atmospheric water vapor content provide strong evidence that the water cycle is already responding to a warming climate. According to IPCC's last report on Climate Change (AR5), the water cycle is expected to intensify in a warmer climate as the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This changes the frequency of precipitation extremes, increases evaporation and dry periods, and effects the water redistribution in land. This process is represented by most global climate models (GCMs) by increased summer dryness and winter wetness over large areas of continental mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, associated with a reduction in water availability at continental scale. Observing changes in precipitation and evaporation directly and at continental scale is difficult, because most of the exchange of fresh water between the atmosphere and the surface happens the oceans. Long term precipitation records are available only from over the land and there are no measurement of evaporation or redistribution of precipitation over the land area. On the other hand, understanding the extent of climate change effects on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance for public, private sectors, and policy makers when it comes to fresh water management. In order to better understand the extent of climate change impacts on water resources of continental Europe, we developed a distributed hydrological model of Europe at high spatial and temporal resolution using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The hydrological model was calibrated for 1970 to 2006 using daily observation of streamflow and nitrate loads from 360 gauging stations across Europe. A vegetation growth routine was added to the model to better simulate evapotranspiration. The model results were calibrated with available agricultural crop yield data from other sources. As of future climate scenarios, we used the ISI-MIP project results which provides bias-corrected climate data from the GCMs participating in the CMIP5 at 0.5° x 0.5° resolution. Data cover the time period from 1901 to 2099, i.e. the historical period, and future projections for all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). We used four different models output (GFDL, HADGEMES, MIROC, and IPSL) for all RCPs for near (2006-2035) and far (3065-2099) future. Multi-model ensembles (16 scenarios) are then used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on fresh water availability across Europe.

Groundwater availability of the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, J.J.; Kahle, S.C.; Ely, D.M.; Burns, E.R.; Snyder, D.T.; Haynes, J.V.; Olsen, T.D.; Welch, W.B.; Morgan, D.S.

2015-09-22

Changes in the system from predevelopment times. The model also is a useful tool for investigating water supply, water demand, management strategies, groundwater-surface water exchanges, and potential effects of changing climate on the hydrologic system.

Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes

PubMed Central

Kaser, Georg; Großhauser, Martin; Marzeion, Ben

2010-01-01

Although reliable figures are often missing, considerable detrimental changes due to shrinking glaciers are universally expected for water availability in river systems under the influence of ongoing global climate change. We estimate the contribution potential of seasonally delayed glacier melt water to total water availability in large river systems. We find that the seasonally delayed glacier contribution is largest where rivers enter seasonally arid regions and negligible in the lowlands of river basins governed by monsoon climates. By comparing monthly glacier melt contributions with population densities in different altitude bands within each river basin, we demonstrate that strong human dependence on glacier melt is not collocated with highest population densities in most basins. PMID:21059938

Water Availability and Management of Water Resources

EPA Science Inventory

One of the most pressing national and global issues is the availability of freshwater due to global climate change, energy scarcity issues and the increase in world population and accompanying economic growth. Estimates of water supplies and flows through the world's hydrologic c...

Regional Responses to Constrained Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Y.; Calvin, K. V.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Kim, S. H.; Patel, P.

2017-12-01

There have been many concerns about water as a constraint to agricultural production, electricity generation, and many other human activities in the coming decades. Nevertheless, how different countries/economies would respond to such constraints has not been explored. Here, we examine the responding mechanism of binding water availability constraints at the water basin level and across a wide range of socioeconomic, climate and energy technology scenarios. Specifically, we look at the change in water withdrawals between energy, land-use and other sectors within an integrated framework, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) that also endogenizes water use and allocation decisions based on costs. We find that, when water is taken into account as part of the production decision-making, countries/basins in general fall into three different categories, depending on the change of water withdrawals and water re-allocation between sectors. First, water is not a constraining factor for most of the basins. Second, advancements in water-saving technologies of the electricity generation cooling systems are sufficient of reducing water withdrawals to meet binding water availability constraints, such as in China and the EU-15. Third, water-saving in the electricity sector alone is not sufficient and thus cannot make up the lowered water availability from the binding case; for example, many basins in Pakistan, Middle East and India have to largely reduce irrigated water withdrawals by either switching to rain-fed agriculture or reducing production. The dominant responding strategy for individual countries/basins is quite robust across the range of alternate scenarios that we test. The relative size of water withdrawals between energy and agriculture sectors is one of the most important factors that affect the dominant mechanism.

Water System Adaptations To Hydrological Changes: Module 4, Water Quality Response to Land-use and Precipitation Changes : Case Study of Ohio River Valley, USA

EPA Science Inventory

This course focuses on water system adaptation to short-term and long-term climate and hydrologic stressors that affect water availability, water quality, security, and resilience. The course is organized into 15 sequential modules. The lectures will be augmented by weekly assign...

Water resources vulnerability assessment in the Adriatic Sea region: the case of Corfu Island.

PubMed

Kanakoudis, Vasilis; Tsitsifli, Stavroula; Papadopoulou, Anastasia; Cencur Curk, Barbara; Karleusa, Barbara

2017-09-01

Cross-border water resources management and protection is a complicated task to achieve, lacking a common methodological framework. Especially in the Adriatic region, water used for drinking water supply purposes pass from many different countries, turning its management into a hard task to achieve. During the DRINKADRIA project, a common methodological framework has been developed, for efficient and effective cross-border water supply and resources management, taking into consideration different resources types (surface and groundwater) emphasizing in drinking water supply intake. The common methodology for water resources management is based on four pillars: climate characteristics and climate change, water resources availability, quality, and security. The present paper assesses both present and future vulnerability of water resources in the Adriatic region, with special focus on Corfu Island, Greece. The results showed that climate change is expected to impact negatively on water resources availability while at the same time, water demand is expected to increase. Water quality problems will be intensified especially due to land use changes and salt water intrusion. The analysis identified areas where water resources are more vulnerable, allowing decision makers develop management strategies.

Plasticity in gas-exchange physiology of mature Scots pine and European larch drive short- and long-term adjustments to changes in water availability.

PubMed

Feichtinger, Linda M; Siegwolf, Rolf T W; Gessler, Arthur; Buchmann, Nina; Lévesque, Mathieu; Rigling, Andreas

2017-09-01

Adjustment mechanisms of trees to changes in soil-water availability over long periods are poorly understood, but crucial to improve estimates of forest development in a changing climate. We compared mature trees of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and European larch (Larix decidua) growing along water-permeable channels (irrigated) and under natural conditions (control) at three sites in inner-Alpine dry valleys. At two sites, the irrigation had been stopped in the 1980s. We combined measurements of basal area increment (BAI), tree height and gas-exchange physiology (Δ 13 C) for the period 1970-2009. At one site, the Δ 13 C of irrigated pine trees was higher than that of the control in all years, while at the other sites, it differed in pine and larch only in years with dry climatic conditions. During the first decade after the sudden change in water availability, the BAI and Δ 13 C of originally irrigated pine and larch trees decreased instantly, but subsequently reached higher levels than those of the control by 2009 (15 years afterwards). We found a high plasticity in the gas-exchange physiology of pine and larch and site-specific responses to changes in water availability. Our study highlights the ability of trees to adjust to new conditions, thus showing high resilience. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The inequality of water scarcity events: who is actually being affected?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Wada, Yoshihide; Kummu, Matti; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

2015-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increased regional and global water scarcity problems. In the near future, projected changes in human water use and population growth - in combination with climate change - are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions and its associated impacts on our society. Whilst a wide range of studies have modelled past and future regional and global patterns of change in population or land area impacted by water scarcity conditions, less attention is paid on who is actually affected and how vulnerable this share of the population is to water scarcity conditions. The actual impact of water scarcity events, however, not only depends on the numbers being affected, but merely on how sensitive this population is to water scarcity conditions, how quick and efficient governments can deal with the problems induced by water scarcity, and how many (financial and infrastructural) resources are available to cope with water scarce conditions. Only few studies have investigated the above mentioned interactions between societal composition and water scarcity conditions (e.g. by means of the social water scarcity index and the water poverty index) and, up to our knowledge, a comprehensive global analysis including different water scarcity indicators and multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios is missing. To address this issue, we assess in this contribution the adaptive capacity of a society to water scarcity conditions, evaluate how this may be driven by different societal factors, and discuss how enhanced knowledge on this topic could be of interest for water managers in their design of adaptation strategies coping with water scarcity events. For that purpose, we couple spatial information on water scarcity conditions with different components from, among others, the Human Development Index and the Worldwide Governance Indicators, such as: the share of the population with an income below the poverty line; mean year of schooling; the ratio between urban and rural population; import and export rates; political stability; corruption; and government effectiveness. Moreover, we also take into account the accessibility of fresh water bodies and markets. Underlying water scarcity conditions were estimated as follows: (1) yearly water availability was calculated at 0.5° x 0.5° over the period 1971-2099 using daily discharge and run-off fields from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, forced with different climate change scenarios; (2) statistical methods were applied to fit probability density functions to time-series of yearly water availability and to estimate water availability for a number of return periods covering the current, 2030, and 2050 conditions; (3) water availability results were assembled with scenario estimates of water consumption and population density which resulted in a series of water scarcity estimates.

Assessing climate change impacts on water availability of snowmelt-dominated basins of the Upper Rio Grande Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Study Region- Upper Rio Grande, Colorado and New Mexico, USA: Climate change is predicted to further limit the water availability of the arid southwestern U.S. In this study, the Snowmelt Runoff Model is used to evaluate impacts of increased temperature and altered precipitation on snow covered are...

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

Emerging trends in global freshwater availability.

PubMed

Rodell, M; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Reager, J T; Beaudoing, H K; Landerer, F W; Lo, M-H

2018-05-01

Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002-2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof. Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world's water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security.

Evaluating options for balancing the water-electricity nexus in California: part 1--securing water availability.

PubMed

Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott

2014-11-01

The technical potential and effectiveness of different water supply options for securing water availability in a large-scale, interconnected water supply system under historical and climate-change augmented inflow and demand conditions were compared. Part 1 of the study focused on determining the scale of the options required to secure water availability and compared the effectiveness of different options. A spatially and temporally resolved model of California's major surface reservoirs was developed, and its sensitivity to urban water conservation, desalination, and water reuse was examined. Potential capacities of the different options were determined. Under historical (baseline) hydrology conditions, many individual options were found to be capable of securing water availability alone. Under climate change augment conditions, a portfolio approach was necessary. The water savings from many individual options other than desalination were insufficient in the latter, however, relying on seawater desalination alone requires extreme capacity installations which have energy, brine disposal, management, and cost implications. The importance of identifying and utilizing points of leverage in the system for choosing where to deploy different options is also demonstrated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Socio-hydrological interactions and dynamics in the western Karakoram, Northern Pakistan - a case study from Upper Hunza

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parveen, Sitara; Schmidt, Susanne; Nüsser, Marcus

2017-04-01

In semi-arid mountain regions of Central and South Asia, agricultural production generally depends on snow and glacier melt runoff. Even small glacier changes impact water availability and local communities have developed diverse adaptation strategies to upkeep local irrigation systems. Based on an in-depth study of the village Hussaini in Upper Hunza, located in the western Karakoram, Pakistan we investigate the impact of glacier changes on the socio-hydrological system. The usage of a combined methodological approach based on remote sensing data as well as repeated field surveys and interviews with local farmers enables to integrate environmental and socio-economical changes in an integrated analyis. The irrigation system of Hussaini strongly depends on the melt water of the adjoining Ghulkin Glacier. This debris-covered glacier is characterized by fluctuations of its front position and relatively small glacier thinning rates since the end of the 19th century. At various points in time, three different glacial water sources were abstracted for irrigation: water flowing across the lateral moraine, from the glacier terminus or from the glacio-fluvial stream. Glacier dynamics including fluctuations and floods directly impact the status of irrigation and local water availability. Site-specific adaptation strategies to these glacio-hydrological changes, including constructions and readjustments of water channels and intakes, efforts to maintain existing channels despite glacier thinning and corresponding changes in meltwater runoff, introduction of innovative solutions and changes of water management systems, were mapped and analyzed. Whereas some channels desiccated as a result of glacier down-wasting, some others were reactivated by local water users. Due to decreasing water availability and increasing cash crop production, the local population faces massive problems.

Long-term changes in food availability mediate the effects of temperature on growth, development and survival in striped marsh frog larvae: implications for captive breeding programmes

PubMed Central

Courtney Jones, Stephanie K.; Munn, Adam J.; Penman, Trent D.; Byrne, Phillip G.

2015-01-01

Food availability and temperature are known to trigger phenotypic change, but the interactive effects between these factors are only beginning to be considered. The aim of this study was to examine the independent and interactive effects of long-term stochastic food availability and water temperature on larval survivorship, growth and development of the striped marsh frog, Limnodynastes peronii. Larval L. peronii were reared in conditions of either constant or stochastic food availability and in water at three different temperatures (18, 22 and 26°C), and effects on survival, growth and development were quantified. Over the experimental period, larval growth rate was highest and survivorship lowest at the warmest temperature. However, changes in food availability mediated the effects of temperature, with slower larval growth and higher survivorship in stochastic food availability treatments. Tadpoles in the stochastic food availability treatments did not reach metamorphosis during the experimental period, suggesting that developmental stasis may have been induced by food restriction. Overall, these results demonstrate that changes in food availability alter the effects of water temperature on survival, growth and development. From an applied perspective, understanding how environmental factors interact to cause phenotypic change may assist with amphibian conservation by improving the number of tadpoles generated in captive breeding programmes. PMID:27293714

Climate change impacts on food system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

2014-12-01

Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

Climate Change Impairs Nitrogen Cycling in European Beech Forests.

PubMed

Dannenmann, Michael; Bimüller, Carolin; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Leberecht, Martin; Tejedor, Javier; Bilela, Silvija; Gasche, Rainer; Hanewinkel, Marc; Baltensweiler, Andri; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Polle, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Simon, Judy; Rennenberg, Heinz

2016-01-01

European beech forests growing on marginal calcareous soils have been proposed to be vulnerable to decreased soil water availability. This could result in a large-scale loss of ecological services and economical value in a changing climate. In order to evaluate the potential consequences of this drought-sensitivity, we investigated potential species range shifts for European beech forests on calcareous soil in the 21st century by statistical species range distribution modelling for present day and projected future climate conditions. We found a dramatic decline by 78% until 2080. Still the physiological or biogeochemical mechanisms underlying the drought sensitivity of European beech are largely unknown. Drought sensitivity of beech is commonly attributed to plant physiological constraints. Furthermore, it has also been proposed that reduced soil water availability could promote nitrogen (N) limitation of European beech due to impaired microbial N cycling in soil, but this hypothesis has not yet been tested. Hence we investigated the influence of simulated climate change (increased temperatures, reduced soil water availability) on soil gross microbial N turnover and plant N uptake in the beech-soil interface of a typical mountainous beech forest stocking on calcareous soil in SW Germany. For this purpose, triple 15N isotope labelling of intact beech seedling-soil-microbe systems was combined with a space-for-time climate change experiment. We found that nitrate was the dominant N source for beech natural regeneration. Reduced soil water content caused a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria and therefore, a massive attenuation of gross nitrification rates and nitrate availability in the soil. Consequently, nitrate and total N uptake of beech seedlings were strongly reduced so that impaired growth of beech seedlings was observed already after one year of exposure to simulated climatic change. We conclude that the N cycle in this ecosystem and here specifically nitrification is vulnerable to reduced water availability, which can directly lead to nutritional limitations of beech seedlings. This tight link between reduced water availability, drought stress for nitrifiers, decreased gross nitrification rates and nitrate availability and finally nitrate uptake by beech seedlings could represent the Achilles' heel for beech under climate change stresses.

Climate Change Impairs Nitrogen Cycling in European Beech Forests

PubMed Central

Dannenmann, Michael; Bilela, Silvija; Gasche, Rainer; Hanewinkel, Marc; Baltensweiler, Andri; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Polle, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Simon, Judy; Rennenberg, Heinz

2016-01-01

European beech forests growing on marginal calcareous soils have been proposed to be vulnerable to decreased soil water availability. This could result in a large-scale loss of ecological services and economical value in a changing climate. In order to evaluate the potential consequences of this drought-sensitivity, we investigated potential species range shifts for European beech forests on calcareous soil in the 21st century by statistical species range distribution modelling for present day and projected future climate conditions. We found a dramatic decline by 78% until 2080. Still the physiological or biogeochemical mechanisms underlying the drought sensitivity of European beech are largely unknown. Drought sensitivity of beech is commonly attributed to plant physiological constraints. Furthermore, it has also been proposed that reduced soil water availability could promote nitrogen (N) limitation of European beech due to impaired microbial N cycling in soil, but this hypothesis has not yet been tested. Hence we investigated the influence of simulated climate change (increased temperatures, reduced soil water availability) on soil gross microbial N turnover and plant N uptake in the beech-soil interface of a typical mountainous beech forest stocking on calcareous soil in SW Germany. For this purpose, triple 15N isotope labelling of intact beech seedling-soil-microbe systems was combined with a space-for-time climate change experiment. We found that nitrate was the dominant N source for beech natural regeneration. Reduced soil water content caused a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria and therefore, a massive attenuation of gross nitrification rates and nitrate availability in the soil. Consequently, nitrate and total N uptake of beech seedlings were strongly reduced so that impaired growth of beech seedlings was observed already after one year of exposure to simulated climatic change. We conclude that the N cycle in this ecosystem and here specifically nitrification is vulnerable to reduced water availability, which can directly lead to nutritional limitations of beech seedlings. This tight link between reduced water availability, drought stress for nitrifiers, decreased gross nitrification rates and nitrate availability and finally nitrate uptake by beech seedlings could represent the Achilles’ heel for beech under climate change stresses. PMID:27410969

Assessing Potential Implications of Climate Change for Long-Term Water Resources Planning in the Colorado River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munevar, A.; Butler, S.; Anderson, R.; Rippole, J.

2008-12-01

While much of the focus on climate change impacts to water resources in the western United States has been related to snow-dominated watersheds, lower elevation basins such as the Colorado River Basin in Texas are dependent on rainfall as the predominant form of precipitation and source of supply. Water management in these basins has evolved to adapt to extreme climatic and hydrologic variability, but the impact of climate change is potentially more acute due to rapid runoff response and subsequent greater soil moisture depletion during the dry seasons. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) - San Antonio Water System (SAWS) Water Project is being studied to conserve water, develop conjunctive groundwater supplies, and capture excess and unused river flows to meet future water needs for two neighboring regions in Texas. Agricultural and other rural water needs would be met on a more reliable basis in the lower Colorado River Basin through water conservation, surface water development and limited groundwater production. Surface water would be transferred to the San Antonio area to meet municipal needs in quantities still being evaluated. Detailed studies are addressing environmental, agricultural, socioeconomic, and engineering aspects of the project. Key planning activities include evaluating instream flow criteria, water quality, bay freshwater inflow criteria, surface water availability and operating approaches, agricultural conservation measures, groundwater availability, and economics. Models used to estimate future water availability and environmental flow requirements have been developed largely based on historical observed hydrologic data. This is a common approach used by water planners as well as by many regulatory agencies for permit review. In view of the project's 80-yr planning horizon, contractual obligations, comments from the Science Review Panel, and increased public and regulatory awareness of climate change issues, the project team is exploring climate change projections and methods to assess potential impacts over the project's expected life. Following an initial qualitative risk assessment, quantitative climate scenarios were developed based on multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations under a range of global emission scenarios. Projected temperature and precipitation changes were evaluated from 112 downscaled AOGCM projections. A Four scenarios were selected for detailed hydrologic evaluations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale model. A quantile mapping procedure was applied to map future climatological period change statistics onto the long-term natural climate variability in the observed record. Simulated changes in runoff, river flow, evaporation, and evapotranspiration are used to generate adjustments to historical hydrology for assessment of potential changes to surface water availability, river water quality, riverine habitat, and Bay health. Projected temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used to estimate changes in agricultural demand. Sea level rise scenarios that include trends in Gulf Coast shelf subsidence are combined with changes in inflows to evaluate increased coastal erosion, upland migration of the estuary, and changes to the salinity regime. Results of the scenario-based analyses are being considered in the development of adaptive management strategies for future operations of the system and the proposed project.

Root-zone temperature and water availability affect early root growth of planted longleaf pine

Treesearch

M.A. Sword

1995-01-01

Longleaf pine seedlings from three seed sources were exposed to three root-zone temperatures and three levels of water availability for 28 days. Root growth declined as temperature and water availability decreased. Root growth differed by seed source. Results suggest that subtle changes in the regeneration environment may influence early root growth of longleaf pine...

Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dedi; Guo, Shenglian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Pan; Xiong, Lihua; Wang, Le; Hong, Xingjun; Xu, Yao; Wang, Zhaoli

2018-01-01

Human activities and climate change have altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability which is a principal prerequisite for allocation of different water resources. In order to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water availability and optimal allocation of water resources, hydrological models and optimal water resource allocation models should be integrated. Given that increasing human water demand and varying water availability conditions necessitate adaptation measures, we propose a framework to assess the effects of these measures on optimal allocation of water resources. The proposed model and framework were applied to a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) were employed to project future climate, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was used to simulate the variability of flows under historical (1956-2011) and future (2012-2099) conditions. The water availability determined by simulating flow with the VIC hydrological model was used to establish the optimal water resources allocation model. The allocation results were derived under an extremely dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 95%), a very dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 90%), a dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 75%), and a normal year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 50%) during historical and future periods. The results show that the total available water resources in the study area and the inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir will increase in the future. However, the uneven distribution of water availability will cause water shortage problems, especially in the boundary areas. The effects of adaptation measures, including water saving, and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) for reservoir operation, were assessed and implemented to alleviate water shortages. The negative impacts from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route) in the mid-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin can be avoided through the dynamic control of FLWLs in Danjiangkou Reservoir, under the historical and future RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. However, the effects of adaptation measures are limited due to their own constraints, such as the characteristics of the reservoirs influencing the FLWLs. The utilization of storm water appears necessary to meet future water demand. Overall, the results indicate that the framework for assessing the effects of adaptation measures on water resources allocation might aid water resources management, not only in the study area but also in other places where water availability conditions vary due to climate change and human activities.

Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Jacob, Daniela

2013-02-01

SummaryAn assessment of the impact of global climate change on the water resources status of the island of Crete, for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime is presented. Three "state of the art" Global Climate Models (GCMs) and an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under emission scenarios B1, A2 and A1B provide future precipitation (P) and temperature (T) estimates that are bias adjusted against observations. The ensemble of RCMs for the A1B scenario project a higher P reduction compared to GCMs projections under A2 and B1 scenarios. Among GCMs model results, the ECHAM model projects a higher P reduction compared to IPSL and CNCM. Water availability for the whole island at basin scale until 2100 is estimated using the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model And a set of demand and infrastructure scenarios are adopted to simulate potential water use. While predicted reduction of water availability under the B1 emission scenario can be handled with water demand stabilized at present values and full implementation of planned infrastructure, other scenarios require additional measures and a robust signal of water insufficiency is projected. Despite inherent uncertainties, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like Crete. The results of the study reinforce the necessity to improve and update local water management planning and adaptation strategies in order to attain future water security.

Modeling seasonal changes in live fuel moisture and equivalent water thickness using a cumulative water balance index

Treesearch

Philip E. Dennison; Dar A. Roberts; Sommer R. Thorgusen; Jon C. Regelbrugge; David Weise; Christopher Lee

2003-01-01

Live fuel moisture, an important determinant of fire danger in Mediterranean ecosystems, exhibits seasonal changes in response to soil water availability. Both drought stress indices based on meteorological data and remote sensing indices based on vegetation water absorption can be used to monitor live fuel moisture. In this study, a cumulative water balance index (...

Water - The key to global change. [of weather and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soffen, Gerald A.

1988-01-01

The role of water in processes of global change is discussed. The importance of water in global warming, the loss of biological diversity, the activity of the El Nino southern oscillation, and the melting of polar ice are examined. Plans for a mission to measure tropical rainfall using a two frequency radar, a visible/IR radiometer and a passive microwave radiometer are noted. The way in which global change is affected by changes in patterns of available water is considered.

Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

2017-04-01

Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of an integrated climate adaptation strategy.

Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century

DOE PAGES

Pagán, Brianna R.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; ...

2016-09-21

The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase,more » rising temperatures result in a shift in precipitation type towards more rainfall, reducing cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in both dry and flood event frequency and intensity. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from reservoirs for flood control, also potentially decreasing water availability. As a result, lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with climate change projections and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.« less

Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pagán, Brianna R.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase,more » rising temperatures result in a shift in precipitation type towards more rainfall, reducing cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in both dry and flood event frequency and intensity. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from reservoirs for flood control, also potentially decreasing water availability. As a result, lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with climate change projections and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.« less

Glacier loss and hydro-social risks in the Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mark, Bryan G.; French, Adam; Baraer, Michel; Carey, Mark; Bury, Jeffrey; Young, Kenneth R.; Polk, Molly H.; Wigmore, Oliver; Lagos, Pablo; Crumley, Ryan; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.; Lautz, Laura

2017-12-01

Accelerating glacier recession in tropical highlands and in the Peruvian Andes specifically is a manifestation of global climate change that is influencing the hydrologic cycle and impacting water resources across a range of socio-environmental systems. Despite predictions regarding the negative effects of long-term glacier decline on water availability, many uncertainties remain regarding the timing and variability of hydrologic changes and their impacts. To improve context-specific understandings of the effects of climate change and glacial melt on water resources in the tropical Andes, this article synthesizes results from long-term transdisciplinary research with new findings from two glacierized Peruvian watersheds to develop and apply a multi-level conceptual framework focused on the coupled biophysical and social determinants of water access and hydro-social risks in these settings. The framework identifies several interacting variables-hydrologic transformation, land cover change, perceptions of water availability, water use and infrastructure in local and regional economies, and water rights and governance-to broadly assess how glacier change is embedded with social risks and vulnerability across diverse water uses and sectors. The primary focus is on the Santa River watershed draining the Cordillera Blanca to the Pacific. Additional analysis of hydrologic change and water access in the geographically distinct Shullcas River watershed draining the Huaytapallana massif towards the city of Huancayo further illuminates the heterogeneous character of hydrologic risk and vulnerability in the Andes.

Assessment of climate change impact on water diversion strategies of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, Sangam; Shrestha, Manish; Babel, Mukand S.

2017-04-01

This paper analyzes the climate change impact on water diversion plan of Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in Nepal. The MWSP is an interbasin water transfer project aimed at diverting water from the Melamchi River of the Indrawati River basin to Kathmandu Valley for drinking water purpose. Future temperature and precipitation of the basin were predicted using the outputs of two regional climate models (RCMs) and two general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios which were then used as inputs to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the water availability and evaluate the water diversion strategies in the future. The average temperature of the basin is projected to increase by 2.35 to 4.25 °C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2085s. The average precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 6-18 % in the future. The annual water availability is projected to increase in the future; however, the variability is observed in monthly water availability in the basin. The water supply and demand scenarios of Kathmandu Valley was also examined by considering the population increase, unaccounted for water and water diversion from MWSP in the future. It is observed that even with the additional supply of water from MWSP and reduction of unaccounted for water, the Kathmandu Valley will be still under water scarcity in the future. The findings of this study can be helpful to formulate water supply and demand management strategies in Kathmandu Valley in the context of climate change in the future.

Water Availability and Use Pilot-A multiscale assessment in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reeves, Howard W.

2011-01-01

Beginning in 2005, water availability and use were assessed for the U.S. part of the Great Lakes Basin through the Great Lakes Basin Pilot of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) national assessment of water availability and use. The goals of a national assessment of water availability and use are to clarify our understanding of water-availability status and trends and improve our ability to forecast the balance between water supply and demand for future economic and environmental uses. This report outlines possible approaches for full-scale implementation of such an assessment. As such, the focus of this study was on collecting, compiling, and analyzing a wide variety of data to define the storage and dynamics of water resources and quantify the human demands on water in the Great Lakes region. The study focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to highlight not only the abundant regional availability of water but also the potential for local shortages or conflicts over water. Regional studies provided a framework for understanding water resources in the basin. Subregional studies directed attention to varied aspects of the water-resources system that would have been difficult to assess for the whole region because of either data limitations or time limitations for the project. The study of local issues and concerns was motivated by regional discussions that led to recent legislative action between the Great Lakes States and regional cooperation with the Canadian Great Lakes Provinces. The multiscale nature of the study findings challenges water-resource managers and the public to think about regional water resources in an integrated way and to understand how future changes to the system-driven by human uses, climate variability, or land-use change-may be accommodated by informed water-resources management.

Water Availability in a Warming World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminzade, Jennifer

As climate warms during the 21st century, the resultant changes in water availability are a vital issue for society, perhaps even more important than the magnitude of warming itself. Yet our climate models disagree in their forecasts of water availability, limiting our ability to plan accordingly. This thesis investigates future water availability projections from Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs), primarily using two water availability measures: soil moisture and the Supply Demand Drought Index (SDDI). Chapter One introduces methods of measuring water availability and explores some of the fundamental differences between soil moisture, SDDI and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). SDDI and PDSI tend to predict more severe future drought conditions than soil moisture; 21st century projections of SDDI show conditions rivaling North American historic mega-droughts. We compare multiple potential evapotranspiration (EP) methods in New York using input from the GISS Model ER GCM and local station data from Rochester, NY, and find that they compare favorably with local pan evaporation measurements. We calculate SDDI and PDSI values using various EP methods, and show that changes in future projections are largest when using EP methods most sensitive to global warming, not necessarily methods producing EP values with the largest magnitudes. Chapter Two explores the characteristics and biases of the five GCMs and their 20th and 21st century climate projections. We compare atmospheric variables that drive water availability changes globally, zonally, and geographically among models. All models show increases in both dry and wet extremes for SDDI and soil moisture, but increases are largest for extreme drying conditions using SDDI. The percentage of gridboxes that agree on the sign of change of soil moisture and SDDI between models is very low, but does increase in the 21st century. Still, differences between models are smaller than differences between SDDI and soil moisture projections. Chapter Three addresses the three major differences between SDDI and soil moisture calculations that shed light on why their future projections diverge: evaporation approximations, dependence on previous months' conditions, and the inclusion of additional variables such as runoff. We implement various changes in SDDI and a GCM vegetation scheme to test the sensitivity of each measure and to evaluate which alterations increase the similarity between SDDI and soil moisture. In addition to deconstructing the differences between SDDI and soil moisture, we analyze their projections regionally in Chapter Four. In seven regions (the southwest U.S., southern Europe, eastern China, eastern Siberia, Australia, Uruguay and Colombia), we (1) assess the forecasts of future water availability changes, (2) compare the atmospheric dynamical processes that produce rainfall and drought in the real world to the way it occurs in individual GCMs, (3) determine how these processes change as global temperatures increase, and (4) identify the most likely scenarios for future regional water availability. Chapter Five summarizes key findings by chapter, enumerating this dissertation's contributions to the field. It then discusses the limitations of existing models and measures, and suggests potential solutions for overcoming their predictive shortfalls. Finally, the chapter concludes with a proposal for future research to expand upon this dissertation work. This thesis highlights the global and zonal differences between two water availability measures, SDDI and soil moisture and identifies regions where they agree and disagree in 21st century modeled scenarios. It provides an explanation for differing projections in soil moisture and SDDI and proves that it is possible to bring convergence to their future projections, which is also applicable to PDSI. Finally, a detailed analysis of climatic changes from five GCMs made it possible to present the most likely scenarios for 21st century water availability in seven regions.

Climate change reduces water availability for agriculture by decreasing non-evaporative irrigation losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Keyvan; Adam, Jennifer C.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Peters, R. Troy

2018-06-01

Irrigation efficiency plays an important role in agricultural productivity; it affects farm-scale water demand, and the partitioning of irrigation losses into evaporative and non-evaporative components. This partitioning determines return flow generation and thus affects water availability. Over the last two decades, hydrologic and agricultural research communities have significantly improved our understanding of the impacts of climate change on water availability and food productivity. However, the impacts of climate change on the efficiency of irrigation systems, particularly on the partitioning between evaporative and non-evaporative losses, have received little attention. In this study, we incorporated a process-based irrigation module into a coupled hydrologic/agricultural modeling framework (VIC-CropSyst). To understand how climate change may impact irrigation losses, we applied VIC-CropSyst over the Yakima River basin, an important agricultural region in Washington State, U.S. We compared the historical period of 1980-2010 to an ensemble of ten projections of climate for two future periods: 2030-2060 and 2060-2090. Results averaged over the watershed showed that a 9% increase in evaporative losses will be compensated by a reduction of non-evaporative losses. Therefore, overall changes in future efficiency are negligible (-0.4%) while the Evaporative Loss Ratio (ELR) (defined as the ratio of evaporative to non-evaporative irrigation losses) is enhanced by 10%. This higher ELR is associated with a reduction in return flows, thus negatively impacting downstream water availability. Results also indicate that the impact of climate change on irrigation losses depend on irrigation type and climate scenarios.

Developing Water Resource Security in a Greenhouse Gas Constrained Context - A Case Study in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarroja, B.; Aghakouchak, A.; Samuelsen, S.

2015-12-01

The onset of drought conditions in regions such as California due to shortfalls in precipitation has brought refreshed attention to the vulnerability of our water supply paradigm to changes in climate patterns. In the face of a changing climate which can exacerbate drought conditions in already dry areas, building resiliency into our water supply infrastructure requires some decoupling of water supply availability from climate behavior through conservation, efficiency, and alternative water supply measures such as desalination and water reuse. The installation of these measures requires varying degrees of direct energy inputs and/or impacts the energy usage of the water supply infrastructure (conveyance, treatment, distribution, wastewater treatment). These impacts have implications for greenhouse gas emissions from direct fuel usage or impacts on the emissions from the electric grid. At the scale that these measures may need to be deployed to secure water supply availability, especially under climate change impacted hydrology, they can potentially pose obstacles for meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable utilization goals. Therefore, the portfolio of these measures must be such that detrimental impacts on greenhouse gas emissions are minimized. This study combines climate data with a water reservoir network model and an electric grid dispatch model for the water-energy system of California to evaluate 1) the different pathways and scale of alternative water resource measures needed to secure water supply availability and 2) the impacts of following these pathways on the ability to meet greenhouse gas and renewable utilization goals. It was discovered that depending on the water supply measure portfolio implemented, impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and renewable utilization can either be beneficial or detrimental, and optimizing the portfolio is more important under climate change conditions due to the scale of measures required.

Projections of water resources availability in Crete for the 21st century under the global change perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, A. G.; Tsanis, I. K.; Jacob, D.

2012-04-01

A robust signal of a warmer and drier climate over the western Mediterranean region is projected from the majority of climate models. This effect appears more pronounced during warm periods, when the seasonal decrease of precipitation can exceed control climatology by 25-30%. The rapid development of Crete in the last 30 years has exerted strong pressures on the natural resources of the region. Urbanization and growth of agriculture, tourism and industry had strong impact on the water resources of island by substantially increasing water demand. The objective of this study is to analyze and assess the impact of global change on the water resources status for the island of Crete for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime, demand and supply potential. Water resources application issues analyzed and facilitated within this study, focusing on a refinement of the future water demands of the island, and comparing with "state of the art" global climate model (GCM) results and an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) under three different emission scenarios, to estimate water resources availability, during the 21st century. A robust signal of water scarcity is projected for all the combinations of emission (A2, A1B and B1), demand and infrastructure scenarios. Despite the uncertainty of the assessments, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an equally important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like the island of Crete. The outcome of this analysis will assist in short and long-term strategic water resources planning by prioritizing water related infrastructure development.

Impacts of Potential Changes in Land Use, Climate, and Water Use on Water Availability, Coastal Carolinas Region, Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurley, L. N.; Garcia, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sustainable growth in coastal areas with rapidly increasing populations, such as the coastal regions of North and South Carolina, relies on an understanding of the current state of coastal natural resources coupled with the ability to assess future impacts of changing coastal communities and resources. Changes in climate, water use, population, and land use (e.g. urbanization) will place additional stress on societal and ecological systems that are already competing for water resources. The potential effects of these stressors on water availability are not fully known. To meet societal and ecological needs, water resources management and planning efforts require estimates of likely impacts of population growth, land-use, and climate. Two Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) hydrologic models were developed to help address the challenges that water managers face in the Carolinas: the (1) Cape Fear and (2) Pee Dee drainage basins. SWAT is a basin-scale, process-based watershed model with the capability of simulating water-management scenarios. Model areas were divided into two square mile sub-basins to evaluate ecological response at headwater streams. The sub-basins were subsequently divided into smaller, discrete hydrologic response units based on land use, slope, and soil type. Monthly and annual water-use data were used for 2000 to 2014 and included estimates of municipal, industrial, agricultural, and commercial water use. Models were calibrated for 2000 to 2014 and potential future streamflows were estimated through 2060 based on a suite of scenarios that integrated land use change projections, climate projections and water-use forecasts. The approaches and new techniques developed as part of this research could be applied to other coastal areas that face similar current and future water availability demands.

Drought, Land-Use Change, and Water Availability in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faunt, C. C.; Sneed, M.; Traum, J.

2015-12-01

The Central Valley is a broad alluvial-filled structural trough that covers about 52,000 square kilometers and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. Because the valley is semi-arid and the availability of surface water varies substantially from year to year, season to season, and from north to south, agriculture developed a reliance on groundwater for irrigation. During recent drought periods (2007-09 and 2012-present), groundwater pumping has increased due to a combination of factors including drought and land-use changes. In response, groundwater levels have declined to levels approaching or below historical low levels. In the San Joaquin Valley, the southern two thirds of the Central Valley, the extensive groundwater pumpage has caused aquifer system compaction, resulting in land subsidence and permanent loss of groundwater storage capacity. The magnitude and rate of subsidence varies based on geologic materials, consolidation history, and historical water levels. Spatially-variable subsidence has changed the land-surface slope, causing operational, maintenance, and construction-design problems for surface-water infrastructure. It is important for water agencies to plan for the effects of continued water-level declines, storage losses, and/or land subsidence. To combat these effects, excess surface water, when available, is artificially recharged. As surface-water availability, land use, and artificial recharge continue to vary, long-term groundwater-level and land-subsidence monitoring and modelling are critical to understanding the dynamics of the aquifer system. Modeling tools, such as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model, can be used in the analysis and evaluation of management strategies to mitigate adverse impacts due to subsidence, while also optimizing water availability. These analyses will be critical for successful implementation of recent legislation aimed toward sustainable groundwater use.

Evaluation of Ground-Water Resources From Available Data, 1992, East Molokai Volcano, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, Stephen S.

1995-01-01

Available ground-water data for East Molokai Volcano consist of well-construction information and records of ground-water pumpage, water levels, and chloride concentrations. Ground-water pumpage records are available for ten wells. Seventeen long-term (10 years or more) records of water-level and/or chloride concentration are available for eleven wells; however, only seven of these records are for observation wells. None of the available data show significant long-term changes in water level or chloride concentration; however, short-term changes due to variations in the quantity of water pumped, and rainfall are evident. Evaluation of the historical distribution and rates of ground-water pumpage, and variations in water levels and chloride concentrations is constrained by the scanty distribution of spatial and temporal data. Data show a range in water levels from greater than 850 feet above mean sea level in wells located in the windward valley of Waikolu to about 10 feet in wells located east of Kualapuu to 1 to 5 feet in the wells located along the south shore of East Molokai Volcano. An accurate contour map of water levels and chloride concentrations at the surface of the basal-water body cannot be constructed for any time period. Because water-level and chloride data are not collected at regular time intervals, many long-term records are incomplete. Information on the variation in chloride concentration with depth through the freshwater part of the basal-water body and into the zone of transition between freshwater and saltwater does not exist.

Impact of water deficit on volatile composition of grapes and wine

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Availability of water has become an increased concern for agriculture, including wine and wine grape production. Water status will directly affect plant nutrient uptake, and change vine canopy size. The canopy size may alter the microclimate within the vine canopy and change vine physiology. The cha...

Soil animal responses to moisture availability are largely scale, not ecosystem dependent: Insight from a cross-site study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change will result in reduced soil water availability in much of the world either due to changes in precipitation or increased temperature and evapotranspiration. Responses of communities of mites and nematodes to changes in moisture availability are not well known, yet these organisms play ...

Inoculating chlamydospores of Trichoderma asperellum SM-12F1 changes arsenic availability and enzyme activity in soils and improves water spinach growth.

PubMed

Su, Shiming; Zeng, Xibai; Bai, Lingyu; Williams, Paul N; Wang, Yanan; Zhang, Lili; Wu, Cuixia

2017-05-01

Arsenic (As)-contaminated agricultural soils threaten crop yields and pose a human health risk. Augmentation of exogenous microorganisms exhibiting plant-growth promoting and As speciation changing shows potential to improve crop growth and change soil As availability. Trichoderma asperellum SM-12F1 exhibiting both traits was developed into chlamydospores to improve its persistence in contaminated soils. After inoculation, As availability and enzyme activity in two types of soils and the growth as well as As uptake of water spinach (Ipomoea aquatic Forsk.) were investigated. The results indicated that inoculation significantly improved water spinach growth in both soils. Inoculating chlamydospores at 5% significantly increased As concentration (139%), bioconcentration factor (150%), and translocation factor (150%) in water spinach grown in Chenzhou (CZ) soils, while no significant change for these in Shimen (SM) soils. Inoculating chlamydospores at 5% caused a significant increase (16%) of available As content in CZ soils, while a significant decrease (13%) in SM soils. Inoculation significantly caused As methylation in both soils, while significant As reduction merely observed in CZ soils. The differential changes in available As contents in both soils were attributed to the soil pH, As fractionations and speciation characteristics. Furthermore, Inoculating chlamydospores at 5% significantly improved the activities of β-glucosidase (155%), chitinase (211%), and phosphatase (108%) in SM soils, while significant decreases in β-glucosidase (81%), phosphatase (54%), aminopeptidase (60%), and catalase (67%) in CZ soils. Bioaugmentation and As availability change were responsible for this result. These observations will be helpful for the application of fungal chlamydospores in the future bioremediation. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The water-energy nexus: an earth science perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, Richard W.; Alley, William M.; Engle, Mark A.; McMahon, Peter B.; Bales, Jerad D.

2015-01-01

Relevant earth science issues analyzed and discussed herein include freshwater availability; water use; ecosystems health; assessment of saline water resources; assessment of fossil-fuel, uranium, and geothermal resources; subsurface injection of wastewater and carbon dioxide and related induced seismicity; climate change and its effect on water availability and energy production; byproducts and waste streams of energy development; emerging energy-development technologies; and energy for water treatment and delivery.

Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabari, Hossein; Taye, Meron Teferi; Willems, Patrick

2015-08-01

We investigate the potential impact of climate change on water availability in central Belgium. Two water balance components being precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are initially projected for the late 21st century (2071-2100) based on 30 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models relative to a baseline period of 1961-1990, assuming forcing by four representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The future available water is then estimated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration projections. The number of wet days and mean monthly precipitation for summer season is projected to decrease in most of the scenarios, while the projections show an increase in those variables for the winter months. Potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase during both winter and summer seasons. The results show a decrease in water availability for summer and an increase for winter, suggesting drier summers and wetter winters for the late 21st century in central Belgium.

Climate change, food, water and population health in China.

PubMed

Tong, Shilu; Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

2016-10-01

Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.

An Index-Based Assessment of Agricultural Water Scarcity for Sustainable Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. E.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, K. S.; Hyun, S.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

Global precipitation pattern is changing due to climate change, causing drought and water scarcity all around the world. As water is mandatory to all lives, water availability is becoming essential and so is sustainable water resource management. Especially in agriculture, water resource management is crucial, as it is directly connected to the production. However, many studies about water scarcity show limits by focusing on current situation and overlooking future possibilities of water availability. Also, most of the studies about water scarcity use single index or model. To overcome these shortcomings, we assessed agricultural water scarcity considering future climate, using water scarcity indices. We assessed present and future water scarcity using several indices and compared the results derived from each index. The study area of this research is South Korea, as drought is a prominent problem in agricultural sector. Precipitation in Korea is concentrated in summer, causing severe drought in spring and fall. Rainfall density in Korea is increasing with climate change, and sustainable water resource management is inevitable. In this research, we used irrigational demand along with current and future crop production of 2030 and 2050 as water demand. We projected the future (2020-2100) runoff of dams located in Korea as water demand under future scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The result showed severe water scarcity in Southern area of Korea both in the present and the future. It was due to increase of water demand and decrease of precipitation. It indicates that the water scarcity gets more intense in the future, and emphasizes the importance of water resource management of the southern part. This research will be valuable in establishing water resource management in agricultural sector for sustainable water availability in the future.

Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds.

PubMed

Fung, Fai; Lopez, Ana; New, Mark

2011-01-13

While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4°C world compared with a +2°C one. In a +2°C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4°C world, climate change becomes more dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases run-off. However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4°C climate.

Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.

2012-04-01

It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.

Olive response to water availability: yield response functions, soil water content indicators and evaluation of adaptability to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riccardi, Maria; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Menenti, Massimo; Monaco, Eugenia; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

Climate evolution, with the foreseen increase of temperature and frequency of drought events during the summer, could cause significant changes in the availability of water resources specially in the Mediterranean region. European countries need to encourage sustainable agriculture practices, reducing inputs, especially of water, and minimizing any negative impact on crop quantity and quality. Olive is an important crop in the Mediterranean region that has traditionally been cultivated with no irrigation and is known to attain acceptable production under dry farming. Therefore this crop will not compete for foreseen reduced water resources. However, a good quantitative knowledge must be available about effects of reduced precipitation and water availability on yield. Yield response functions, coupled with indicators of soil water availability, provide a quantitative description of the cultivar- specific behavior in relation to hydrological conditions. Yield response functions of 11 olive cultivars, typical of Mediterranean environment, were determined using experimental data (unpublished or reported in scientific literature). The yield was expressed as relative yield (Yr); the soil water availability was described by means of different indicators: relative soil water deficit (RSWD), relative evapotranspiration (RED) and transpiration deficit (RTD). Crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions and exhibit threshold responses, so for the yield functions of each olive cultivar both linear regression and threshold-slope models were considered to evaluate the best fit. The level of relative yield attained in rain-fed conditions was identified and defined as the acceptable yield level (Yrrainfed). The value of the indicator (RSWD, RED and RTD) corresponding to Yrrainfed was determined for each cultivar and indicated as the critical value of water availability. The error in the determination of the critical value was estimated. By means of a simulation model of the water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, the indicators of soil water availability were calculated for different soil units in an area of Southern Italy, traditionally cultivated with olive. Simulations were performed for two climate scenarios: reference (1961-90) and future climate (2021-50). The potentiality of the indicators RSWD, RED and RTD to describe soil water availability was evaluated using simulated and experimental data. The analysis showed that RED values were correlated to RTD. The analysis demonstrated that RTD was more effective than RED in representing crop water availability RSWD is very well correlated to RTD and the degree of correlation depends of the period of deficit considered. The probability of adaptation of each cultivar was calculated for both climatic periods by comparing the critical values (and their error distribution) with soil availability indicators. Keywords: Olea europaea, soil water deficit, water availability critical value. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Management of the San Juan Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rich, P. M.; Weintraub, L. H.; Chen, L.; Herr, J.

2005-12-01

Recent climatic events, including regional drought and increased storm severity, have accentuated concerns that climatic extremes may be increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. As part of the ZeroNet Water-Energy Initiative, the San Juan Decision Support System includes a basin-scale modeling tool to evaluate effects of climate change on water budgets under different climate and management scenarios. The existing Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) was enhanced with iterative modeling capabilities to enable construction of climate scenarios based on historical and projected data. We applied WARMF to 42,000 km2 (16,000 mi2) of the San Juan Basin (CO, NM) to assess impacts of extended drought and increased temperature on surface water balance. Simulations showed that drought and increased temperature impact water availability for all sectors (agriculture, energy, municipal, industry), and lead to increased frequency of critical shortages. Implementation of potential management alternatives such as "shortage sharing" or degraded water usage during critical years helps improve available water supply. In the face of growing concern over climate change, limited water resources, and competing demands, integrative modeling tools can enable better understanding of complex interconnected systems, and enable better decisions.

Analysis of key thresholds leading to upstream dependencies in global transboundary water bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munia, Hafsa Ahmed; Guillaume, Joseph; Kummu, Matti; Mirumachi, Naho; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Transboundary water bodies supply 60% of global fresh water flow and are home to about 1/3 of the world's population; creating hydrological, social and economic interdependencies between countries. Trade-offs between water users are delimited by certain thresholds, that, when crossed, result in changes in system behavior, often related to undesirable impacts. A wide variety of thresholds are potentially related to water availability and scarcity. Scarcity can occur because of the country's own water use, and that is potentially intensified by upstream water use. In general, increased water scarcity escalates the reliance on shared water resources, which increases interdependencies between riparian states. In this paper the upstream dependencies of global transboundary river basins are examined at the scale of sub-basin areas. We aim to assess how upstream water withdrawals cause changes in the scarcity categories, such that crossing thresholds is interpreted in terms of downstream dependency on upstream water availability. The thresholds are defined for different types of water availability on which a sub-basin relies: - reliable local runoff (available even in a dry year), - less reliable local water (available in the wet year), - reliable dry year inflows from possible upstream area, and - less reliable wet year inflows from upstream. Possible upstream withdrawals reduce available water downstream, influencing the latter two water availabilities. Upstream dependencies have then been categorized by comparing a sub-basin's scarcity category across different water availability types. When population (or water consumption) grows, the sub-basin satisfies its needs using less reliable water. Thus, the factors affecting the type of water availability being used are different not only for each type of dependency category, but also possibly for every sub- basin. Our results show that, in the case of stress (impacts from high use of water), in 104 (12%) sub- basins out of 886 sub-basins are dependent on upstream water, while in the case of shortage (impacts from insufficient water availability per person), 79 (9%) sub-basins out of 886 sub-basins dependent on upstream water. Categorization of the upstream dependency of the sub-basins helps to differentiate between areas where i) there is currently no dependency on upstream water, ii) upstream water withdrawals are sufficiently high that they alter the scarcity and dependency status, and iii) which are always dependent on upstream water regardless of upstream water withdrawals. Our dependency assessment is expected to considerably support the studies and discussions of hydro-political power relations and management practices in transboundary basins.

Assessing fit, interplay, and scale: Aligning governance and information for improved water management in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchhoff, C.; Dilling, L.

2011-12-01

Water managers have long experienced the challenges of managing water resources in a variable climate. However, climate change has the potential to reshape the experiential landscape by, for example, increasing the intensity and duration of droughts, shifting precipitation timing and amounts, and changing sea levels. Given the uncertainty in evaluating potential climate risks as well as future water availability and water demands, scholars suggest water managers employ more flexible and adaptive science-based management to manage uncertainty (NRC 2009). While such an approach is appropriate, for adaptive science-based management to be effective both governance and information must be concordant across three measures: fit, interplay and scale (Young 2002)(Note 1). Our research relies on interviews of state water managers and related experts (n=50) and documentary analysis in five U.S. states to understand the drivers and constraints to improving water resource planning and decision-making in a changing climate using an assessment of fit, interplay and scale as an evaluative framework. We apply this framework to assess and compare how water managers plan and respond to current or anticipated water resource challenges within each state. We hypothesize that better alignment between the data and management framework and the water resource problem improves water managers' facility to understand (via available, relevant, timely information) and respond appropriately (through institutional response mechanisms). In addition, better alignment between governance mechanisms (between the scope of the problem and identified appropriate responses) improves water management. Moreover, because many of the management challenges analyzed in this study concern present day issues with scarcity brought on by a combination of growth and drought, better alignment of fit, interplay, and scale today will enable and prepare water managers to be more successful in adapting to climate change impacts in the long-term. Note 1: For the purposes of this research, the problem of fit deals with the level of concordance between the natural and human systems while interplay involves how institutional arrangements interact both horizontally and vertically. Lastly, scale considers both spatial and temporal alignment of the physical systems and management structure. For example, to manage water resources effectively in a changing climate suggests having information that informs short-term and long-term changes and having institutional arrangements that seek understanding across temporal scales and facilitate responses based on information available (Young 2002).

Climate change, food, water and population health in China

PubMed Central

Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

2016-01-01

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change’s most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially – although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources – e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change – e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases – are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population’s resilience to the risks of climate variability and change. PMID:27843166

Compounding Impacts of Climate Change and Increased Human Water Withdrawal on Urmia Lake Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alborzi, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Azaranfar, A.; Mallakpour, I.; Ashraf, B.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, climate change and increase in human water withdrawal, combined, have caused ecological degradation in several terminal lakes worldwide. Among them, the shallow and hyper-saline Urmia Lake in Iran has experienced about 6 meters drawdown in lake level and 80% reduction in surface area. Here, we assess the imposed stress on Urmia Basin's water availability and Lake's ecological condition in response to coupled climate change and human-induced water withdrawal. A generalized river basin decision support system model consisting network flow is developed to simulate the basin-lake interactions under a wide range of scenarios. This model explicitly includes water management infrastructure, reservoirs, and irrigation and municipal water use. Studied scenarios represent a wide range of historic climate and water use scenarios including a historical baseline, future increase in water demand, and also improved water efficiency. In this presentation, we show the lake's water level, as a measure of lake's ecological health, under the compounding effects of the climate condition (top-down) and water use (bottom-up) scenarios. This method illustrates what combinations lead to failure in meeting the lake's ecological level.

Physiological Plasticity Is Important for Maintaining Sugarcane Growth under Water Deficit

PubMed Central

Marchiori, Paulo E. R.; Machado, Eduardo C.; Sales, Cristina R. G.; Espinoza-Núñez, Erick; Magalhães Filho, José R.; Souza, Gustavo M.; Pires, Regina C. M.; Ribeiro, Rafael V.

2017-01-01

The water availability at early phenological stages is critical for crop establishment and sugarcane varieties show differential performance under drought. Herein, we evaluated the relative importance of morphological and physiological plasticity of young sugarcane plants grown under water deficit, testing the hypothesis that high phenotypic plasticity is associated with drought tolerance. IACSP95-5000 is a high yielding genotype and IACSP94-2094 has good performance under water limiting environments. Plants were grown in rhizotrons for 35 days under three water availabilities: high (soil water matric potential [Ψm] higher than -20 kPa); intermediate (Ψm reached -65 and -90 kPa at the end of experimental period) and low (Ψm reached values lower than -150 kPa). Our data revealed that morphological and physiological responses of sugarcane to drought are dependent on genotype and intensity of water deficit. In general, IACSP95-5000 showed higher physiological plasticity given by leaf gas exchange and photochemical traits, whereas IACSP94-2094 showed higher morphological plasticity determined by changes in leaf area (LA) and specific LA. As IACSP94-2094 accumulated less biomass than IACSP95-5000 under varying water availability, it is suggested that high morphological plasticity does not always represent an effective advantage to maintain plant growth under water deficit. In addition, our results revealed that sugarcane varieties face water deficit using distinct strategies based on physiological or morphological changes. When the effectiveness of those changes in maintaining plant growth under low water availability is taken into account, our results indicate that the physiological plasticity is more important than the morphological one in young sugarcane plants. PMID:29326744

Understorey productivity in temperate grassy woodland responds to soil water availability but not to elevated [CO2 ].

PubMed

Collins, Luke; Bradstock, Ross A; Resco de Dios, Victor; Duursma, Remko A; Velasco, Sabrina; Boer, Matthias M

2018-06-01

Rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and associated climate change are expected to modify primary productivity across a range of ecosystems globally. Increasing aridity is predicted to reduce grassland productivity, although rising [CO 2 ] and associated increases in plant water use efficiency may partially offset the effect of drying on growth. Difficulties arise in predicting the direction and magnitude of future changes in ecosystem productivity, due to limited field experimentation investigating climate and CO 2 interactions. We use repeat near-surface digital photography to quantify the effects of water availability and experimentally manipulated elevated [CO 2 ] (eCO 2 ) on understorey live foliage cover and biomass over three growing seasons in a temperate grassy woodland in south-eastern Australia. We hypothesised that (i) understorey herbaceous productivity is dependent upon soil water availability, and (ii) that eCO 2 will increase productivity, with greatest stimulation occurring under conditions of low water availability. Soil volumetric water content (VWC) determined foliage cover and growth rates over the length of the growing season (August to March), with low VWC (<0.1 m 3  m -3 ) reducing productivity. However, eCO 2 did not increase herbaceous cover and biomass over the duration of the experiment, or mitigate the effects of low water availability on understorey growth rates and cover. Our findings suggest that projected increases in aridity in temperate woodlands are likely to lead to reduced understorey productivity, with little scope for eCO 2 to offset these changes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Water and nitrogen availability co-control ecosystem CO2 exchange in a semiarid temperate steppe.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaolin; Tan, Yulian; Li, Ang; Ren, Tingting; Chen, Shiping; Wang, Lixin; Huang, Jianhui

2015-10-23

Both water and nitrogen (N) availability have significant effects on ecosystem CO2 exchange (ECE), which includes net ecosystem productivity (NEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP). How water and N availability influence ECE in arid and semiarid grasslands is still uncertain. A manipulative experiment with additions of rainfall, snow and N was conducted to test their effects on ECE in a semiarid temperate steppe of northern China for three consecutive years with contrasting natural precipitation. ECE increased with annual precipitation but approached peak values at different precipitation amount. Water addition, especially summer water addition, had significantly positive effects on ECE in years when the natural precipitation was normal or below normal, but showed trivial effect on GEP when the natural precipitation was above normal as effects on ER and NEP offset one another. Nitrogen addition exerted non-significant or negative effects on ECE when precipitation was low but switched to a positive effect when precipitation was high, indicating N effect triggered by water availability. Our results indicate that both water and N availability control ECE and the effects of future precipitation changes and increasing N deposition will depend on how they can change collaboratively in this semiarid steppe ecosystem.

The impact of climate change on the water resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perac, Marija Å.; Grgurevac, Anamarija

2010-05-01

The EU has defined dangerous climate change as an increase in 2 degrees Celsius of average global temperatures. Rising global temperatures will lead to an intensification of hydrological cycle, resulting in dryer dry season, and subsequently heightened risk of more extreme and frequent floods and drought. Climate change is caused by greenhouse gasses ( GHGs), which enhance the " greenhouse " properties of the earth's atmosphere. These gasses allow solar radiation from the sun to travel through the atmosphere but prevent the reflected heat from escaping back into space. This causes the earth's temperature to rise. Changing climate will also have significant impacts on the availability of water as well as the quality of water that is available and accessible. Possibly, climate change magnificent impact at water cycles in Croatia. It means more droughts, it will have impact in agriculture and natural systems, specially swamp areas. Also, it will be come to reduction river flows, and maybe lower underground water level which used for water supply. Climate change can be impact on intensity of floods and quality/quantity of water.Successes of climate change in Croatia are: decrease volume of precipitation at whole state area; long drought years directly water quantity for irrigation; decreasing drinking water. Ponder able for next 40 years mean temperature will be increase for 2,5 C. It assumes that sea level will be increase at 65 - 100 cm. It will be endanger cities and settlements besides coast ( cities: Split, Zadar; west coast of Istra; delta of Neretva; islands: Krk, Cres, Lošinj…). Suggestions for next activities: monitoring and notation hydro meteorological information's; account impact of climate change on the: evaporation, drain, water balance, water management activity, make a region impact study of a possibly account on the water resources. Maintaining and development of water resources and agrotehnical systems and application water management strategy are essential postulate of accommodation that defined economical expansion of the state. Global heating in 21. century in European continent mostly attack Mediterranean and Alps region.

High-resolution Land Cover Datasets, Composite Curve Numbers, and Storm Water Retention in the Tampa Bay, FL region

EPA Science Inventory

Policy makers need to understand how land cover change alters storm water regimes, yet existing methods do not fully utilize newly available datasets to quantify storm water changes at a landscape-scale. Here, we use high-resolution, remotely-sensed land cover, imperviousness, an...

Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

2017-12-01

The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable renewable generation technologies such as wind and solar.

Potential climate change impacts on water availability and cooling water demand in the Lusatian Lignite Mining Region, Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Koch, Hagen; Gädeke, Anne; Grünewald, Uwe; Kaltofen, Michael; Redetzky, Michael

2014-05-01

In the catchments of the rivers Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems are coupled via a complex water management system in which water users, reservoirs and water transfers are included. Lignite mining and electricity production are major water users in the region: To allow for open pit lignite mining, ground water is depleted and released into the river system while cooling water is used in the thermal power plants. In order to assess potential climate change impacts on water availability in the catchments as well as on the water demand of the thermal power plants, a climate change impact assessment was performed using the hydrological model SWIM and the long term water management model WBalMo. The potential impacts of climate change were considered by using three regional climate change scenarios of the statistical regional climate model STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0, 2 or 3 K by the year 2050 in the region respectively. Furthermore, scenarios assuming decreasing mining activities in terms of a decreasing groundwater depression cone, lower mining water discharges, and reduced cooling water demand of the thermal power plants are considered. In the standard version of the WBalMo model cooling water demand is considered as static with regard to climate variables. However, changes in the future cooling water demand over time according to the plans of the local mining and power plant operator are considered. In order to account for climate change impacts on the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants, a dynamical approach for calculating water demand was implemented in WBalMo. As this approach is based on air temperature and air humidity, the projected air temperature and air humidity of the climate scenarios at the locations of the power plants are included in the calculation. Due to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation declining natural and managed discharges, and hence a lower water availability in the region, were simulated by SWIM and WBalMo respectively. Next to changing climate conditions, also the different mining scenarios have considerable impacts on natural and managed discharges. Using the dynamic approach for cooling water demand, the simulated water demands are lower in winter, but higher in summer compared to the static approach. As a consequence of changes in the seasonal pattern of the cooling water demand of the power plants, lower summer discharges downstream of the thermal power plants are simulated using the dynamical approach. Due to the complex water management system in the region included in the water management model WBalMo, also the simulation of reservoir releases and volumes is impacted by the choice of either the static or the dynamic approach for calculating the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants.

Climate change and epidemiology of human parasitosis in Egypt: A review.

PubMed

Lotfy, Wael M

2014-11-01

Climate change is an emerging global issue. It is expected to have significant impacts both in Egypt and around the world. Thus, the country is in need for taking action to prepare for the unavoidable effects of climate change, including the increase in water stress, the rise in sea level, and the rapidly increasing gap between the limited water availability and the escalating demand for water in the country. Also, weather and climate play a significant role in people's health. Direct impacts of climate change on the Egyptians public health may include also increased prevalence of human parasitic diseases. Climate could strongly influence parasitic diseases transmitted through intermediate hosts. The present work reviews the future of such parasitic diseases in the view of the current available evidence and scenarios for climate change in the Egypt.

Climate change and epidemiology of human parasitosis in Egypt: A review

PubMed Central

Lotfy, Wael M.

2013-01-01

Climate change is an emerging global issue. It is expected to have significant impacts both in Egypt and around the world. Thus, the country is in need for taking action to prepare for the unavoidable effects of climate change, including the increase in water stress, the rise in sea level, and the rapidly increasing gap between the limited water availability and the escalating demand for water in the country. Also, weather and climate play a significant role in people’s health. Direct impacts of climate change on the Egyptians public health may include also increased prevalence of human parasitic diseases. Climate could strongly influence parasitic diseases transmitted through intermediate hosts. The present work reviews the future of such parasitic diseases in the view of the current available evidence and scenarios for climate change in the Egypt. PMID:25685530

Consuming untreated water in four southwestern Alaska Native communities: reasons revealed and recommendations for change.

PubMed

Ritter, Troy L; Lopez, Ellen D S; Goldberger, Rachel; Dobson, Jennifer; Hickel, Korie; Smith, Jeffrey; Johnson, Rhonda M; Bersamin, Andrea

2014-12-01

In this article, the authors provide the first in-depth account of why some Alaska Native people drink untreated water when treated water is available. Their qualitative research was conducted in four Alaska Native village communities that have treated water available from a centralized distribution point. Most respondents (n = 172; 82%) reported that some of their household's drinking water came from an untreated source. Motives for drinking untreated water emerged from analysis of open-ended questions about drinking water practice and could be categorized into six themes: chemicals, taste, health, access, tradition, and cost. Importantly, some residents reported consuming untreated water because they both liked untreated water and disliked treated water. As such, interventions to increase safe water consumption should address this dichotomy by providing education about the benefits of treated water alongside the risks involved with drinking untreated water. Based on the findings, the authors provide specific recommendations for developing behavior change interventions that address influences at multiple social-ecological levels.

Serious-game for water resources management adaptation training to climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroy, Eve; Saulnier, Georges-Marie

2013-04-01

Water resources access is a main issue for territorial development to ensure environmental and human well-being. Indeed, sustainable development is vulnerable to water availability and climate change may affect the quantity and temporality of available water resources for anthropogenic water uses. How then to adapt, how to change water management rules and practices and how to involve stakeholders is such process? To prevent water scarcity situations, which may generate conflicts and impacts on ecosystems, it is important to think about a sustainable development where anthropogenic water uses are in good balance with forecasted water resources availability. This implies to raise awareness and involve stakeholders for a sustainable water management. Stakeholders have to think about future territorial development taking into account climate change impacts on water resources. Collaboration between scientists and stakeholders is essential to insure consistent climate change knowledge, well identification of anthropogenic uses, tensions and stakes of the territory. However sharing information on complex questions such as climate change, hydro-meteorological modeling and practical constraints may be a difficult task. Therefore to contribute to an easier debate and to the global training of all the interested actors, a serious game about water management was built. The serious game uses scientist complex models with real data but via a simple and playful web-game interface. The advantage of this interface is that it may help stakeholders, citizen or the target group to raise their understandings of impacts of climate change on water resources and to raise their awareness to the need for a sustainable water management while using state-of-the-art knowledge. The principle of the game is simple. The gamer is a mayor of a city and has to manage the water withdrawals from hydro systems, water distribution and consumption, water retreatment etc. In the same time, a clock is running and climate change occurs on the territory which impacts the water resources. The gamer has to deal with this evolution and try to help its municipality in growing. If the water management plays well the city can develop. At the opposite, wrong player decisions may generate water, energy or food scarcities, which lead the city to decrease. A first version of this game still under development was built. It makes uses of data from a famous French ski resort: Megève municipality. A demo of this game will be presented. Under a playful approach the serious game helps to discuss essential but strained topics between stakeholders, scientists and citizens. It may be considered as a useful tool for decision support and explanation of a complex topic. It is also hoped that this approach offers new ways of collaboration with stakeholders to approach complex situations in order to find the best paths for future water management.

Integrating a distributed hydrological model and SEEA-Water for improving water account and water allocation management under a climate change context.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jauch, Eduardo; Almeida, Carina; Simionesei, Lucian; Ramos, Tiago; Neves, Ramiro

2015-04-01

The crescent demand and situations of water scarcity and droughts are a difficult problem to solve by water managers, with big repercussions in the entire society. The complexity of this question is increased by trans-boundary river issues and the environmental impacts of the usual adopted solutions to store water, like reservoirs. To be able to answer to the society requirements regarding water allocation in a sustainable way, the managers must have a complete and clear picture of the present situation, as well as being able to understand the changes in the water dynamics both in the short and long time period. One of the available tools for the managers is the System of Environmental-Economic Accounts for Water (SEEA-Water), a subsystem of SEEA with focus on water accounts, developed by the United Nations Statistical Division (UNSD) in collaboration with the London Group on Environmental Accounting, This system provides, between other things, with a set of tables and accounts for water and water related emissions, organizing statistical data making possible the derivation of indicators that can be used to assess the relations between economy and environment. One of the main issues with the SEEA-Water framework seems to be the requirement of large amounts of data, including field measurements of water availability in rivers/lakes/reservoirs, soil and groundwater, as also precipitation, irrigation and other water sources and uses. While this is an incentive to collecting and using data, it diminishes the usefulness of the system on countries where this data is not yet available or is incomplete, as it can lead to a poor understanding of the water availability and uses. Distributed hydrological models can be used to fill missing data required by the SEEA-Water framework. They also make it easier to assess different scenarios (usually soil use, water demand and climate changes) for a better planning of water allocation. In the context of the DURERO project (www.durero.eu), the hydrological model MOHID LAND (www.mohid.com) was used to model the Douro river basin providing information to the SEEA-Water system for the Portuguese side of the basin. The model was also used to model the Tâmega river watershed, a sub-basin of the Douro basin, with different climate change scenarios, using the results to build the SEEA-Water accounts for this pilot river basin. The aim of the present work was to understand the potential of the integration of a distributed hydrological model with the SEEA-Water framework and how this can help improving water allocation management and water account under a climate change context.

Ground-Water Availability Assessment for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is assessing the availability and use of the Nation's water resources to gain a clearer understanding of the status of our water resources and the land-use, water-use, and climatic trends that affect them. The goal of the National assessment is to improve our ability to forecast water availability for future economic and environmental uses. Assessments will be completed for regional aquifer systems across the Nation to help characterize how much water we have now, how water availability is changing, and how much water we can expect to have in the future (Reilly and others, 2008). Water availability is a function of many factors, including the quantity and quality of water, and the laws, regulations, economics, and environmental factors that control its use. The focus of the Columbia Plateau regional ground-water availability assessment is to improve fundamental knowledge of the ground-water balance of the region, including the flows, storage, and ground-water use by humans. An improved quantitative understanding of the region's water balance not only provides key information about water quantity, but also can serve as a fundamental basis for many analyses of water quality and ecosystem health.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.

PubMed

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

2017-08-01

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Multi-Sector Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change at the Energy-Water-Land Nexus in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarland, J.; Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

Effects of climate and socio-economic changes on water availability, use and management at the regional scale - a case study in the dry inner-alpine zone of Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weingartner, Rolf; Reynard, Emmanuel; Graefe, Olivier; Liniger, Hanspeter; Rist, Stephan; Schaedler, Bruno; Schneider, Flurina

2014-05-01

The research program NRP 61 "Sustainable Water Management" of the Swiss National Science Foundation had set the goal to provide a basis for sustainable water management in Switzerland. As part of this research program the effects of climate and socio-economic changes on water availability, water use and water management were investigated in the Crans-Montana-Sierre region, situated in the dry inner-alpine Valais (project MontanAqua). The project followed an inter- and trans-disciplinary approach; stakeholders were involved from the very beginning. We assessed the current water situation with quantitative and qualitative methods: A dense hydro-meteorological network was built-up, tracer experiments were conducted and communal water uses as well as the current water management system were analyzed. These investigations paved the way to develop models to simulate possible changes in the near and far future. For this purpose, we applied existing regional climate change scenarios and developed socio-economic scenarios together with the stakeholders. The findings of MontanAqua can be summarized into five messages, each with a short recommendation: 1 - The socio-economic changes have a greater impact on the water situation in 2050 than climate change: A territorial development that limits water needs is recommended. This requires important changes of current water- and land-management practices. 2 - The water quantities available now and in 2050 are generally sufficient. However, shortages are possible in some areas and seasonally: We recommend establishing a regional water management which goes beyond the development of technical infrastructure such as storage facilities or connections between water supply networks. This measure should be accompanied by a clarification and negotiation of water rights at the regional level. 3 - Water issues are primarily regional management problems: We advocate for better cooperation between the eleven municipalities of the region and the establishment of a demand management strategy which is aimed at coordinating uses and reducing water needs. 4 - Inter-communal measures on infrastructures can help to ensure sustainable water supply, but only if they are integrated into ambitious institutional reforms: A more equitable water management at the regional level requires a new negotiation of management principles and access rights to the water resources. 5 - To achieve a sustainable regional water management, improved data management and transparency is needed: We recommend that the Valais Canton develop a strategy for monitoring water at the regional level and for the collection of homogenized data. We also recommend that the Canton assess the current water management at the regional level in terms of sustainability. Finally, we advocate that a study to clarify the water rights is launched.

Socioeconomic Drought in a Changing Climate: Modeling and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, Amir; Mehran, Ali; Mazdiyasni, Omid

2016-04-01

Drought is typically defined based on meteorological, hydrological and land surface conditions. However, in many parts of the world, anthropogenic changes and water management practices have significantly altered local water availability. Socioeconomic drought refers to conditions whereby the available water supply cannot satisfy the human and environmental water needs. Surface water reservoirs provide resilience against local climate variability (e.g., droughts), and play a major role in regional water management. This presentation focuses on a framework for describing socioeconomic drought based on both water supply and demand information. We present a multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI; Mehran et al., 2015). This model links the information on inflow and surface reservoir storage to water demand. MSRRI integrates a "top-down" and a "bottom-up" approach for describing socioeconomic drought. The "top-down" component describes processes that cannot be simply controlled or altered by local decision-makers and managers (e.g., precipitation, climate variability, climate change), whereas the "bottom-up" component focuses on the local resilience, and societal capacity to respond to droughts. The two components (termed, Inflow-Demand Reliability (IDR) indicator and Water Storage Resilience (WSR) indicator) are integrated using a nonparametric multivariate approach. We use this framework to assess the socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium Drought (1998-2010) and the 2011-2014 California Droughts. MSRRI provides additional information on socioeconomic drought onset, development and termination based on local resilience and human demand that cannot be obtained from the commonly used drought indicators. We show that MSRRI can be used for water management scenario analysis (e.g., local water availability based on different human water demands scenarios). Finally, we provide examples of using the proposed modeling framework for analyzing water availability in a changing climate considering local conditions. Reference: Mehran A., Mazdiyasni O., AghaKouchak A., 2015, A Hybrid Framework for Assessing Socioeconomic Drought: Linking Climate Variability, Local Resilience, and Demand, Journal of Geophysical Research, 120 (15), 7520-7533, doi: 10.1002/2015JD023147

In ecoregions across western USA streamflow increases during post-wildfire recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wine, Michael L.; Cadol, Daniel; Makhnin, Oleg

2018-01-01

Continued growth of the human population on Earth will increase pressure on already stressed terrestrial water resources required for drinking water, agriculture, and industry. This stress demands improved understanding of critical controls on water resource availability, particularly in water-limited regions. Mechanistic predictions of future water resource availability are needed because non-stationary conditions exist in the form of changing climatic conditions, land management paradigms, and ecological disturbance regimes. While historically ecological disturbances have been small and could be neglected relative to climatic effects, evidence is accumulating that ecological disturbances, particularly wildfire, can increase regional water availability. However, wildfire hydrologic impacts are typically estimated locally and at small spatial scales, via disparate measurement methods and analysis techniques, and outside the context of climate change projections. Consequently, the relative importance of climate change driven versus wildfire driven impacts on streamflow remains unknown across the western USA. Here we show that considering wildfire in modeling streamflow significantly improves model predictions. Mixed effects modeling attributed 2%-14% of long-term annual streamflow to wildfire effects. The importance of this wildfire-linked streamflow relative to predicted climate change-induced streamflow reductions ranged from 20%-370% of the streamflow decrease predicted to occur by 2050. The rate of post-wildfire vegetation recovery and the proportion of watershed area burned controlled the wildfire effect. Our results demonstrate that in large areas of the western USA affected by wildfire, regional predictions of future water availability are subject to greater structural uncertainty than previously thought. These results suggest that future streamflows may be underestimated in areas affected by increased prevalence of hydrologically relevant ecological disturbances such as wildfire.

Drinking water quality and hospital admissions of elderly people for gastrointestinal illness in Eastern Massachusetts, 1998-2008.

PubMed

Beaudeau, Pascal; Schwartz, Joel; Levin, Ronnie

2014-04-01

We used a Poisson regression to compare daily hospital admissions of elderly people for acute gastrointestinal illness in Boston against daily variations in drinking water quality over an 11-year period, controlling for weather, seasonality and time trends. The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA), which provides non-filtered water to 1.5 million people in the greater Boston area, changed its disinfection method from chlorination to ozonation during the study period so we were also able to evaluate changes in risk associated with the change in disinfection method. Other available water quality data from the MWRA included turbidity, fecal coliforms, UV-absorbance, and planktonic algae and cyanobacteriae concentrations. Daily weather, rainfall data and water temperature were also available. Low water temperature, increases in turbidity and, to a lesser extent, in fecal coliform and cyanobacteriae were associated with a higher risk of hospital admissions, while the shift from chlorination to ozonation has possibly reduced the health risk. The MWRA complied with US drinking water regulations throughout the study period. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Near-infrared imaging of water in human hair.

PubMed

Egawa, Mariko; Hagihara, Motofumi; Yanai, Motohiro

2013-02-01

The water content of hair can be evaluated by weighing, the Karl Fischer method, and from electrical properties. However, these methods cannot be used to study the distribution of water in the hair. Imaging techniques are required for this purpose. In this study, a highly sensitive near-infrared (NIR) imaging system was developed for evaluating water in human hair. The results obtained from NIR imaging and conventional methods were compared. An extended indium-gallium-arsenide NIR camera (detection range: 1100-2200 nm) and diffuse illumination unit developed in our laboratory were used to obtain a NIR image of hair. A water image was obtained using a 1950-nm interference filter and polarization filter. Changes in the hair water content with relative humidity (20-95% RH) and after immersion in a 7% (w/w) sorbitol solution were measured using the NIR camera and an insulation resistance tester. The changes in the water content after treatment with two types of commercially available shampoo were also measured using the NIR camera. As the water content increased with changes in the relative humidity, the brightness of the water image decreased and the insulation resistance decreased. The brightness in the NIR image of hair treated with sorbitol solution was lower than that in the image of hair treated with water. This shows the sorbitol-treated hair contains more water than water-treated hair. The sorbitol-treated hair had a lower resistance after treatment than before, which also shows that sorbitol treatment increases the water content. With this system, we could detect a difference in the moisturizing effect between two commercially available shampoos. The highly sensitive imaging system could be used to study water in human hair. Changes in the water content of hair depended on the relative humidity and treatment with moisturizer. The results obtained using the NIR imaging system were similar to those obtained using a conventional method. Our system could detect differences in the moisturizing effects of two commercially available shampoos. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Water Resources Availability in Kabul, Afghanistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akbari, A. M.; Chornack, M. P.; Coplen, T. B.; Emerson, D. G.; Litke, D. W.; Mack, T. J.; Plummer, N.; Verdin, J. P.; Verstraeten, I. M.

2008-12-01

The availability of water resources is vital to the rebuilding of Kabul, Afghanistan. In recent years, droughts and increased water use for drinking water and agriculture have resulted in widespread drying of wells. Increasing numbers of returning refugees, rapid population growth, and potential climate change have led to heightened concerns for future water availability. The U.S. Geological Survey, with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development, began collaboration with the Afghanistan Geological Survey and Ministry of Energy and Water on water-resource investigations in the Kabul Basin in 2004. This has led to the compilation of historic and recent water- resources data, creation of monitoring networks, analyses of geologic, geophysical, and remotely sensed data. The study presented herein provides an assessment of ground-water availability through the use of multidisciplinary hydrogeologic data analysis. Data elements include population density, climate, snowpack, geology, mineralogy, surface water, ground water, water quality, isotopic information, and water use. Data were integrated through the use of conceptual ground-water-flow model analysis and provide information necessary to make improved water-resource planning and management decisions in the Kabul Basin. Ground water is currently obtained from a shallow, less than 100-m thick, highly productive aquifer. CFC, tritium, and stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopic analyses indicate that most water in the shallow aquifer appears to be recharged post 1970 by snowmelt-supplied river leakage and secondarily by late winter precipitation. Analyses indicate that increasing withdrawals are likely to result in declining water levels and may cause more than 50 percent of shallow supply wells to become dry or inoperative particularly in urbanized areas. The water quality in the shallow aquifer is deteriorated in urban areas by poor sanitation and water availability concerns may be compounded by poor well construction practices and little planning. By 2050, the available water resources in the Kabul Basin may be reduced as a result of Central Asian climate changes. Increasing air temperatures associated with climate change are likely to lead to a decreasing snowpack and an earlier growing season, resulting in less recharge from river leakage. As a result, more than 60 percent of existing supply wells may become dry or inoperative. The impacts of climate change would likely be greatest in the agricultural regions in the western areas of the basin. Water resources in the in northern areas of the basin may meet future water needs. However, in other areas of the basin, particularly the more urbanized southern areas adjacent to and including the city of Kabul, water resources may be stressed. Ground water in deep aquifers, more than 100 m below land surface, is presently unused. Conceptual ground-water-flow simulations indicate that ground water in deep aquifers may be thousands of years old. The deep aquifer may sustain limited increases in municipal water use, but may not support increased agricultural use which is much greater than municipal use. However, the hydraulic feasibility and quality of deep ground-water extractions are not well known and are being investigated.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Allen, David V.; Danner, M.R.; Walzem, Vince; Cillessen, J.L.; Kenney, T.A.; Wilkowske, C.D.; Eacret, Robert J.; Downhour, Paul; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.; Fisher, M.J.

2005-01-01

This is the forty-second in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, provide data to enable inter­ested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water with­drawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2004. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights and Division of Water Resources. This report is available online at http://www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ wwwpub/gw2005.pdf and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/GW2005.pdf.

Relative controls of natural and socio-economic drivers on water availability over India: an exploratory modelling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, A.; Singh, R.; Kumar, R.

2017-12-01

India, a water stressed nation with an estimated per capita water availability of 1500m3/year/person, is projected to surpass China in population to become the most populous country by 2022. This increasing population will further exacerbate the water stress, which will also vary due to climate and land use change. Here, we quantify the relative controls on per capita water availability from climatic, non-climatic and socio-economic factors. We achieve this by using several definitions of per capita water availability and accounting for virtual water trade transfer. Our exploratory analysis employs the recently developed probabilistic Budyko framework modified to account for inter-regional virtual water trade. We find that the Indo-Gangetic plains and Southeastern parts of India emerge as vulnerable regions where a growing population will lead to a drastic reduction in per capita water availability. The proposed framework can serve as a prototype for understanding the relative importance of socio-economic interventions versus water infrastructure or demand reduction investments.

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

Radiolarians decreased silicification as an evolutionary response to reduced Cenozoic ocean silica availability.

PubMed

Lazarus, David B; Kotrc, Benjamin; Wulf, Gerwin; Schmidt, Daniela N

2009-06-09

It has been hypothesized that increased water column stratification has been an abiotic "universal driver" affecting average cell size in Cenozoic marine plankton. Gradually decreasing Cenozoic radiolarian shell weight, by contrast, suggests that competition for dissolved silica, a shared nutrient, resulted in biologic coevolution between radiolaria and marine diatoms, which expanded dramatically in the Cenozoic. We present data on the 2 components of shell weight change--size and silicification--of Cenozoic radiolarians. In low latitudes, increasing Cenozoic export of silica to deep waters by diatoms and decreasing nutrient upwelling from increased water column stratification have created modern silica-poor surface waters. Here, radiolarian silicification decreases significantly (r = 0.91, P < 0.001), from approximately 0.18 (shell volume fraction) in the basal Cenozoic to modern values of approximately 0.06. A third of the total change occurred rapidly at 35 Ma, in correlation to major increases in water column stratification and abundance of diatoms. In high southern latitudes, Southern Ocean circulation, present since the late Eocene, maintains significant surface water silica availability. Here, radiolarian silicification decreased insignificantly (r = 0.58, P = 0.1), from approximately 0.13 at 35 Ma to 0.11 today. Trends in shell size in both time series are statistically insignificant and are not correlated with each other. We conclude that there is no universal driver changing cell size in Cenozoic marine plankton. Furthermore, biologic and physical factors have, in concert, by reducing silica availability in surface waters, forced macroevolutionary changes in Cenozoic low-latitude radiolarians.

Appropriate technology and climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gomez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Climate change is emerging as the greatest significant environmental problem for the 21st Century and the most important global challenge faced by human kind. Based on evidence recognized by the international scientific community, climate change is already an unquestionable reality, whose first effects are beginning to be measured. Available climate projections and models can assist in anticipating potential far-reaching consequences for development processes. Climatic transformations will impact the environment, biodiversity and water resources, putting several productive processes at risk; and will represent a threat to public health and water availability in quantity and quality.

Potential effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion on streamflow in California's Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baguskas, S. A.; Bart, R.; Molinari, N.; Tague, C.; Moritz, M.

2014-12-01

There is widespread concern that changes in climate and fire regime may lead to vegetation change across California, which in turn may influence watershed hydrology. Although plant cover is known to affect numerous hydrological processes, sensitivities to vegetation type and spatial arrangement of species within watersheds are not well understood. The primary objective of our research was to generate mechanistically-based projections of how potential type conversion from forested to shrub dominated systems may affect streamflow. During the 2014 growing season, we measured ecophysiological responses (plant water status and leaf gas exchange rates) of two dominant tree and shrub species to changes in seasonal water availability at two sites within the southern Sierra Nevada Critical Zone Observatory. Plant physiological observations were used to parameterize a process-based eco-hydrological model, RHESSys. This model was used to evaluate the impact of changes in seasonal water availability and vegetation type-conversion on streamflow. Based on our field observations, shrubs and trees had similar access to water through the early part of the growing season (April-early June); however, by late July, available water to shrubs was twice that of trees (shrubs, -0.55 ± 0.08 MPa; trees, -1.07 ± 0.08 MPa, p<0.05). Likewise, maximum transpiration (E) and carbon assimilation (A) rates per unit leaf area were twice as high for shrubs then trees in July (shrubs, A= 21 ± 2.3 μmol m-2 s-1, E=6.6 ± 1.8 mmol m-2 s-1; trees, A=8.2 ± 1.9 μmol m-2 s-1, E=2.4 ± 0.3 mmol m-2 s-1). Preliminary modeled changes in streamflow following simulated vegetation conversion were found to affect both the timing and amount of discharge. Controls on pre vs. post-conversion streamflow included changes in interception, rooting depth, energy balance, and plant response to changes in seasonal water availability. Our research demonstrates how linking strategic field data collection and mechanistic ecohydrologic models can be used as a robust tool for assessing the potential impact of vegetation change on the water balance of an ecosystem. This is an increasingly valuable approach to inform management decisions focused on adapting strategies based on projected changes in climate.

Climate change impacts on water availability in the Red River Basin and critical areas for future water conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani Sabzi, H.; Moreno, H. A.; Neeson, T. M.; Rosendahl, D. H.; Bertrand, D.; Xue, X.; Hong, Y.; Kellog, W.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Hudson, C.; Austin, B. N.

2017-12-01

Previous periods of severe drought followed by exceptional flooding in the Red River Basin (RRB) have significantly affected industry, agriculture, and the environment in the region. Therefore, projecting how climate may change in the future and being prepared for potential impacts on the RRB is crucially important. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on water availability across the RRB. We used three down-scaled global climate models and three potential greenhouse gas emission scenarios to assess precipitation, temperature, streamflow and lake levels throughout the RRB from 1961 to 2099 at a spatial resolution of 1/10°. Unit-area runoff and streamflow were obtained using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model applied across the entire basin. We found that most models predict less precipitation in the western side of the basin and more in the eastern side. In terms of temperature, the models predict that average temperature could increase as much as 6°C. Most models project slightly more precipitation and streamflow values in the future, specifically in the eastern side of the basin. Finally, we analyzed the projected meteorological and hydrologic parameters alongside regional water demand for different sectors to identify the areas on the RRB that will need water-environmental conservation actions in the future. These hotspots of future low water availability are locations where regional environmental managers, water policy makers, and the agricultural and industrial sectors must proactively prepare to deal with declining water availability over the coming decades.

Hydrological study of climate change impact on the Llobregat basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Ballinas-Gonzáles, Romeo; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Escaler, Isabel

2010-05-01

Climate change may cause a progressive increase of atmospheric temperature and consequently may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation. All these changes of meteorological variables may modify the water cycle: run-off, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc… In Spain, climate change scenarios describe a general trend to increase temperature and reduced precipitation. This would result in a reduction of available water between 5 and 14% that can rise to 20-22% for the scenarios of the XXI century (AEMET, 2008). This work has focused on studying the impacts of climate change in one of the most important basins in Catalonia (Spain), the Llobregat river basin. It is a highly populated and urbanized catchment, where water resources are used for different purposes, such as drinking water production, agriculture irrigation, industry and hydro-electric energy production. This work is part of the European project "Water Change" (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program) which deals with medium and long-term water resources modelling as a tool for planning and global change adaptation. Usually, to study the impact of climate change, future climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) are used. To adapt the large-scale information provided by GCMs to a finer spatial scale required for regional and environmental impact studies, downscaling techniques have been developed. Here, an analogues downscaling method has been applied to simulate daily precipitation projections at rain gauge locations. The HBV hydrological model has been chosen to evaluate the discharges for strategic points (dam, channel and water extractions) in different areas within the watershed. The first results have shown that the water available for supply has a tendency to decrease, implying that measures have to be taken to face the future miss.

Endogenous change: on cooperation and water availability in two ancient societies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.

2014-05-01

We propose and test the theory of endogenous change in societal institutions based on historical reconstructions of two ancient civilizations, the Indus and Hohokam, in two water-scarce basins, the Indus Basin in the Indian subcontinent and the lower Colorado Basin in the southwestern United States. In our reconstructions, institutions are approximated by the scale of "cooperation", be it in the form of the extent of trade, sophisticated irrigation networks, a central state or a loosely held state with a common cultural identity. We study changes in institutions brought about by changes in factors like rainfall, population density, and land-use-induced water resource availability, in a proximate manner. These factors either change naturally or are changed by humans; in either case we contend that the changes affect the stability of cooperative structures over time. We relate the quantitative dimensions of water access by ancient populations to the co-evolution of water access and the socioeconomic and sociopolitical organizations. In doing so, we do not claim that water manipulation was the single most significant factor in stimulating social development and complexity - this would be highly reductionist. Nonetheless, we provide a discussion with the aim to enhance our understanding of the complexity of coupled human-hydrological systems. We find that scarcity triggered more complex cooperative arrangements in both Indus and Hohokam societies.

Water governance within Kenya's Upper Ewaso Ng'iro Basin: Assessing the performance of water projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCord, P. F.; Evans, T. P.; Dell'Angelo, J.; Gower, D.; McBride, L.; Caylor, K. K.

2013-12-01

Climate change processes are projected to change the availability and seasonality of streamflow with dramatic implications for irrigated agricultural systems. Within mountain environments, this alteration in water availability may be quite pronounced over a relatively short distance as upstream users with first access to river water directly impact the availability of water to downstream users. Livelihood systems that directly depend on river water for both domestic consumption and practices such as irrigated agriculture are particularly vulnerable. The Mount Kenya region is an exemplary case of a semi-arid upstream-downstream system in which water availability rapidly decreases and directly impacts the livelihoods of river water users existing across this steep environmental gradient. To effectively manage river water within these water-scarce environs, water projects have been established along the major rivers of the Mount Kenya region. These water projects are responsible for managing water within discrete sub-catchments of the region. While water projects develop rules that encourage the responsible use of water and maintenance of the project itself, the efficiency of water allocation to the projects' members remains unclear. This research analyzes water projects from five sub-catchments on the northwest slopes of Mount Kenya. It utilizes data from household surveys and water project management surveys as well as stream gauge data and flow measurements within individual water projects to assess the governance structure and performance of water projects. The performance of water projects is measured through a variety of household level metrics including: farm-level water flow and volume over time, mean and variability in maize yield, per capita crop productivity, household-level satisfaction with water availability, number of days where water volume was insufficient for irrigation, and quantity harvested compared with expected quantity harvested. We present results demonstrating the heterogeneity of these individual measures and discuss the influence of topography, network design, household behaviors and water governance on the overall performance of these water projects. This work is the foundation for an agent-based model of these water projects that investigates the impact of climate change and population pressure on sustained agricultural production in the region. Additionally, the study highlights the utility of pairing distinct fields of scholarship by utilizing both survey responses and hydrological data to study complex social-ecological systems. This pairing allows for insights regarding governance structures that are effectively managing river water in the present and helps to understand the structures that may be suitable for future water management.

Water Relations of White Alder

Treesearch

Virginia I. Dains

1989-01-01

White alder (Alnus rhombifolia) is a potentially valuable indicator of water stress along California's waterways. Measurements of stomatal conductance, water potential and tissue water relations in conjunction with growth and morphological studies give evidence for the sensitivity of this species to changes in water availability. Potted...

The Sensitivity of Soil Moisture in Western U.S. Mountains to Changes in Snowmelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harpold, A. A.

2014-12-01

Snowmelt is the primary water source for human needs and ecosystems services in much of the Western U.S. Regional warming is expected to hasten snow disappearance and reduce snowpacks. The soil water budget strongly mediates the effects of changing snowmelt patterns by storing water and altering is partitioning to evaporation, transpiration, and runoff. This study therefore asked the research question, "Under what conditions was soil water availability coupled to snowmelt magnitudes and timing across Western U.S. mountains?" We posed three potential hypotheses to explain decoupling between soil water availability and snowmelt: 1. Contributions from post-snowmelt rainfall, 2. Longer growing season length and/or greater water demand, and/or 3. Insufficient soil water storage. Using 259 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, we showed that the timing of Peak Soil Moisture (PSM) was strongly explained by snow disappearance (Pearson r-value of 0.62). However, differences in the coupling of PSM with DSD were dependent on soil and bedrock type, with well-drained areas having earlier PSM relative to DSD. A second analysis focused on 48 SNOTEL and Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) stations in the Northwest and Intermountain Western U.S. where detailed soil hydraulic properties existed. We found the timing of snow disappearance was a strong influence (p<0.01) on the number of days per year that soil moisture was below wilting point at individual stations, whereas summer precipitation was a weaker predictor. We develop a framework to classify stations into three classes: 1. stations that were not subject to water stress from changing snowmelt patterns over the historical records, 2. stations subject to water stress during poor snowmelt years, and 3. stations that relied on rainfall to avoid water stress across historical records. Our combined results demonstrate that snow disappearance timing is a first-order control on soil water availability across many Western U.S. mountain ecosystems. However, soils properties could make areas more/less sensitive to changing snowpacks depending on seasonal precipitation patterns. This type of simple framework could be used to identify areas at risk of changing snowpacks and help constrain vegetation distributions as a consequence of climate change.

Implications of various land use change scenarios on global water scarcity over the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Le Page, Y.; Calvin, K. V.

2017-12-01

While the effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on hydrological processes (e.g., runoff, peak flow and discharge) and water availability have been extensively researched, the impacts of LULCC on water scarcity has been rarely investigated. Water scarcity, usually defined as the ratio of water demand to available renewable water supply. The involved water demand is an important human-dimension factor, which is affected by both socio-economic conditions (e.g., population, income) as well as LULCC (e.g., the amount of land we dedicate for food, feed, and fuel crops). Recent studies have assessed the combined effects of climate change and human interventions (e.g., dams, water withdrawals and LULCC) on water scarcity, but none to date has focused on the implications of different pathways of LULCC alone on water scarcity. We establish a set of LULCC scenarios under changing climate and socioeconomic pathways using an integrated assessment model - Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), which integrates natural systems (e.g., water supply, ecosystems, climate) and human systems (e.g., water demand, land use, economy, food, energy, population). The LULCC scenarios encompass varying degrees of protected areas, different magnitudes of crop/bioenergy production and subsidies, and whether to penalize potential land use emissions from bioenergy production (e.g., loss of wood carbon stock from land conversion). Then we investigate how water scarcity responds to LULCC and how the distribution of global population under severe water stress varies in the 21st century. Preliminary results indicate that the LULCC-induced changes in water scarcity are overall small at the global scale (<2%), but significant (5%-10%) in areas where LULCC is substantial (e.g., deforestation in South America and equatorial Africa). This study highlights the role of land use policies in determining the fate of water stress and population being affected. Findings from this research could be used to inform strategies focused on alleviating water stress around the world.

Water availability drives gas exchange and growth of trees in northeastern US, not elevated CO2 and reduced acid deposition.

PubMed

Levesque, Mathieu; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Pederson, Neil

2017-04-10

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) exhibit high uncertainty about how climate change, elevated atmospheric CO 2 (atm. CO 2 ) concentration, and atmospheric pollutants will impact carbon sequestration in forested ecosystems. Although the individual roles of these environmental factors on tree growth are understood, analyses examining their simultaneous effects are lacking. We used tree-ring isotopic data and structural equation modeling to examine the concurrent and interacting effects of water availability, atm. CO 2 concentration, and SO 4 and nitrogen deposition on two broadleaf tree species in a temperate mesic forest in the northeastern US. Water availability was the strongest driver of gas exchange and tree growth. Wetter conditions since the 1980s have enhanced stomatal conductance, photosynthetic assimilation rates and, to a lesser extent, tree radial growth. Increased water availability seemingly overrides responses to reduced acid deposition, CO 2 fertilization, and nitrogen deposition. Our results indicate that water availability as a driver of ecosystem productivity in mesic temperate forests is not adequately represented in DGVMs, while CO 2 fertilization is likely overrepresented. This study emphasizes the importance to simultaneously consider interacting climatic and biogeochemical drivers when assessing forest responses to global environmental changes.

Assessment of Long-term Irrigation Water Availability over Highly Managed and Economically Important Agricultural Region of the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Rushi, B. R.; Malek, K.; Rajagopalan, K.; Hall, S.; Kruger, C. E.; Brady, M.; Stockle, C.; Adam, J. C.

2016-12-01

Agriculture contributes about 12% in Washington State's economy. Water diverted from the Columbia River Basin (CRB) is the major source of irrigation water in this region. Although agriculture accounts for 80% of this state's total water withdrawal, this sector is the first to be curtailed (i.e., irrigators do not receive their full water right allocation) while there is a water shortage. This snow dominated region is already threatened by climate change. A robust regional-scale analysis of water supply, demand, unmet crop water requirements and associated impacts is critical to develop sustainable water resources plans under climate change. This study uses a dynamically-coupled hydrologic and cropping systems model, VIC-CropSyst, a reservoir management model, ColSim, and a water curtailment model to simulate changes in surface water irrigation demand projecting 30 years in the future in response to various climate, management and economic scenarios. Five downscaled climate scenarios for each of the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (rcp4.5) and 8.5 (rcp8.5) are selected in a way that they capture the projected spread of temperature and precipitation changes for the area. Results show an increase in total water availability across the CRB. Water availability is predicted to shift earlier in the season due to warming-induced snowpack reductions. Agricultural water demand is projected to decrease by approximately 5.0% (±0.7%) and 6.9% (±0.7%) respectively across the entire CRB and the Washington portion of the CRB by 2035. Irrigation demand is expected to shift earlier in the season along with water availability. This shift in demand may cause higher amount of early season irrigation water curtailment in some highly managed watersheds of the CRB in Washington State. This reduction and shift in demand is due to a warmer climate and an elevated atmospheric CO2 level which are leading to a shorter but early starting growing season. This study does not consider any expansion of irrigated crop lands for future, or any adaption measures such as double cropping, switching to slow maturing crop varieties. Curtailment increasing in the early season and declining in the late season may require adjustments to reservoir operations unless proper adaptive measures are taken.

Modeling the impacts of climate change, landuse change, and human population dynamics on water availability and demands in the Southeastern U.S.

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Erika Cohen; David Wear

2005-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a method to fully budget annual water supply (Precipitation - Evapotranspiration (ET) + Groundwater supply + Return Flow) and water use from thermoelectric, irrigation, domestic, industry, livestock, minirig, and commercial uses at the regional scale. We used a generalized annual ET model that estimates water loss as a function...

IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION ON SUSTAINABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation presents the potential impacts that global climate change may have on the quality and quantity of water available to drinking water and wastewater treatment systems and the adaptations these systems might have to employ in order to remain in regulatory complianc...

Water, Weeds and Autumn Leaves: Learning to Be Drier in the Alpine Region

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foley, Annette; Grace, Lauri

2009-01-01

Our paper explores how and what adults living and working in the Alpine region of Victoria understand and are learning about the changes to water availability, in a time when the response to water availability is subject to extensive debate and policy attention. Interviews for this study were conducted in the towns of Bright and Mount Beauty, with…

A vulnerability assessment for water availability related to the impacts of climate change in Banyuasin Valley, South Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdani, Y.

2018-03-01

Banyuasin Valley region is located in lowland areas that is potentially subjected to hazard of flooding and submergence. The indication of reduction hazard in water availability is in the period of 2010 with decreasing value of Total Run Off at - 500 mm/year and in the period 2030 is the lowest decline of the region Banyuasin with a value of -100 mm/year. Tanjung Api-api port, built in this area, is feared to be vulnerable to the availability of clean water due to the impact of climate change. The vulnerability components consist of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The formula means vulnerability to a certain hazard is strengthened by its exposure and its sensitivity and decreased by its adaptive capacity. The results of this study showed that water availability in the baseline condition is in low vulnerability (47.91%) whereas, at the projection condition, vulnerability is in the category of moderate vulnerability (81.28%).

Socio-hydrological resilience of an arid aquifer system, subject to changing climate and inadequate agricultural management: A case study from the Valley of Santo Domingo, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurl, Jobst; Gámez, Alba E.; Ivanova, Antonina; Imaz Lamadrid, Miguel A.; Hernández-Morales, Pablo

2018-04-01

Mismanagement has caused the overexploitation of one third of the major aquifers in Mexico, mainly due to excessive water extraction for agricultural irrigation. Santo Domingo (Baja California Sur, in northern Mexico, where agriculture absorbs nearly 80% of water) is the only aquifer in the Mexico where, after a period of overexploitation, equality between extraction and recharge rates was achieved, although this has not meant the securement of long-term water availability. This paper offers an analysis of hydrological resilience of a water-limited arid ecosystem under future extraction scenarios and changing climate conditions. A regional groundwater flow model is proposed using MODFLOW software. Then, different indicators were modeled as outcomes of coupled human-water systems to predict water trajectories under different human impacts. The aim was to recognize water insecurity scenarios and define appropriate actions to a more sustainable use of this scarce resource in the region. Thus, although runoff derived from extreme floods may favor infiltration, the involvement of local stakeholders and decision makers to reverse the adverse impacts of current water management and climate change is imperative if water availability and better quality are to be secured.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Allen, David V.; Danner, M.R.; Enright, Michael; Cillessen, J.L.; Gerner, S.J.; Eacret, Robert J.; Downhour, Paul; Slaugh, Bradley A.; Swenson, Robert L.; Howells, James H.; Christiansen, Howard K.; Fisher, Martel J.

2007-01-01

This is the forty-fourth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2006. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is available online at http://www.waterrights.utah. gov/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/newUTAH/GW2007.pdf.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Allen, David V.; Danner, M.R.; Fisher, Martel J.; Freeman, Michael L.; Downhour, Paul; Wilkowske, C.D.; Eacret, Robert J.; Enright, Michael; Swenson, Robert L.; Howells, James H.; Christiansen, Howard K.

2008-01-01

This is the forty-fifth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2007. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is available online at http://www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/GW2008.pdf.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Allen, David V.; Rowland, Ryan C.; Fisher, Martel J.; Freeman, Michael L.; Downhour, Paul; Nielson, Ashley; Eacret, Robert J.; Myers, Andrew; Slaugh, Bradley A.; Swenson, Robert L.; Howells, James H.; Christiansen, Howard K.

2009-01-01

This is the forty-sixth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2008. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is available online at http://www.waterrights. utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/ GW2009.pdf.

Compensatory Water Effects Link Yearly Global Land CO2 Sink Changes to Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Tramontana, Gianluca; Viovy, Nicolas; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Weber, Ulrich; Weber, Ulrich; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning;

Groundwater nitrate pollution and climate change: learnings from a water balance-based analysis of several aquifers in a western Mediterranean region (Catalonia).

PubMed

Mas-Pla, Josep; Menció, Anna

2018-04-11

Climate change will affect the dynamics of the hydrogeological systems and their water resources quality; in particular nitrate, which is herein taken as a paradigmatic pollutant to illustrate the effects of climate change on groundwater quality. Based on climatic predictions of temperature and precipitation for the horizon of 2021 and 2050, as well as on land use distribution, water balances are recalculated for the hydrological basins of distinct aquifer systems in a western Mediterranean region as Catalonia (NE Spain) in order to determine the reduction of available water resources. Besides the fact that climate change will represent a decrease of water availability, we qualitatively discuss the modifications that will result from the future climatic scenarios and their impact on nitrate pollution according to the geological setting of the selected aquifers. Climate effects in groundwater quality are described according to hydrological, environmental, socio-economic, and political concerns. Water reduction stands as a major issue that will control stream-aquifer interactions and subsurface recharge, leading to a general modification of nitrate in groundwater as dilution varies. A nitrate mass balance model provides a gross estimation of potential nitrate evolution in these aquifers, and it points out that the control of the fertilizer load will be crucial to achieve adequate nitrate content in groundwater. Reclaimed wastewater stands as local reliable resource, yet its amount will only satisfy a fraction of the loss of available resources due to climate change. Finally, an integrated management perspective is necessary to avoid unplanned actions from private initiatives that will jeopardize the achievement of sustainable water resources exploitation under distinct hydrological scenarios.

A Novel Application of Agent-based Modeling: Projecting Water Access and Availability Using a Coupled Hydrologic Agent-based Model in the Nzoia Basin, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, A.; Pricope, N. G.

2015-12-01

Projections indicate that increasing population density, food production, and urbanization in conjunction with changing climate conditions will place stress on water resource availability. As a result, a holistic understanding of current and future water resource distribution is necessary for creating strategies to identify the most sustainable means of accessing this resource. Currently, most water resource management strategies rely on the application of global climate predictions to physically based hydrologic models to understand potential changes in water availability. However, the need to focus on understanding community-level social behaviors that determine individual water usage is becoming increasingly evident, as predictions derived only from hydrologic models cannot accurately represent the coevolution of basin hydrology and human water and land usage. Models that are better equipped to represent the complexity and heterogeneity of human systems and satellite-derived products in place of or in conjunction with historic data significantly improve preexisting hydrologic model accuracy and application outcomes. We used a novel agent-based sociotechnical model that combines the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Agent Analyst and applied it in the Nzoia Basin, an area in western Kenya that is becoming rapidly urbanized and industrialized. Informed by a combination of satellite-derived products and over 150 household surveys, the combined sociotechnical model provided unique insight into how populations self-organize and make decisions based on water availability. In addition, the model depicted how population organization and current management alter water availability currently and in the future.

Mapping water availability, projected use and cost in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Moreland, Barbara D.; Zemlick, Katie M.; Roberts, Barry L.; Passell, Howard D.; Jensen, Daniel; Forsgren, Christopher; Sehlke, Gerald; Cook, Margaret A.; King, Carey W.; Larsen, Sara

2014-05-01

New demands for water can be satisfied through a variety of source options. In some basins surface and/or groundwater may be available through permitting with the state water management agency (termed unappropriated water), alternatively water might be purchased and transferred out of its current use to another (termed appropriated water), or non-traditional water sources can be captured and treated (e.g., wastewater). The relative availability and cost of each source are key factors in the development decision. Unfortunately, these measures are location dependent with no consistent or comparable set of data available for evaluating competing water sources. With the help of western water managers, water availability was mapped for over 1200 watersheds throughout the western US. Five water sources were individually examined, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water, municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Also mapped was projected change in consumptive water use from 2010 to 2030. Associated costs to acquire, convey and treat the water, as necessary, for each of the five sources were estimated. These metrics were developed to support regional water planning and policy analysis with initial application to electric transmission planning in the western US.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE PAGES

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; ...

2017-06-27

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

2014-12-01

Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the irrigated area. The most sensitive area is along the Boise Foothill which is the transitioning zone from water deficit to water abundant. However, these trends vary significantly between scenarios in space and time. The outcome of the study will serve as a reference for local stakeholders to make decisions on future land use.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the Columbia River basin: incorporating water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, J. C.; Rajagopalan, K.; Stockle, C. O.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C. E.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Nelson, R.

2014-12-01

Changes in global population, food consumption and climate lead to a food security challenge for the future. Water resources, agricultural productivity and the relationships between them will to a large extent dictate how we address this challenge. Although food security is a global issue, impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural productivity, as well as viability of adaptation strategies, are location specific; e.g., it is important to consider the regional regulatory environment. Our work focuses on the Columbia River basin (CRB) of the Pacific Northwest US. The water resources of the CRB are heavily managed to meet competing demands. There also exists a legal system for individuals/groups to obtain rights to use the publicly owned water resources, and the possibility of curtailing (i.e., restricting) some of these water rights in times of shortage. It is important to include an approximation of this water resource regulation and water rights curtailment process in modeling water availability and impacts of water shortages on agricultural production. The overarching objective of this work is to apply an integrated hydrologic-crop-water management modeling framework over the CRB to characterize the impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands, irrigation water availability, water shortages, and associated impacts in the 2030s. Results indicate that climate change has both positive and negative effects on agricultural production in the CRB and this varies by region and crop type. Certain watersheds that are already water stressed are projected to experience increasing stress in the future. Although, climate change results in increased water shortages and water rights curtailment in the region, this does not necessarily translate into an increased negative effect on yields; some crops are projected to increase in yield despite curtailment. This could be attributed to higher water use efficiency under elevated CO2 levels as well crops moving through growth stages earlier in the season with wetter and warmer spring conditions. Incorporating regulations into integrated modeling framework results in a more realistic assessment of climate change impacts.

Distinct germination response of endangered and common arable weeds to reduced water potential.

PubMed

Rühl, A T; Eckstein, R L; Otte, A; Donath, T W

2016-01-01

Arable weeds are one of the most endangered species groups in Europe. Modern agriculture and intensive land-use management are the main causes of their dramatic decline. However, besides the changes in land use, climate change may further challenge the adaptability of arable weeds. Therefore, we investigated the response pattern of arable weeds to different water potential and temperature regimes during the phase of germination. We expected that endangered arable weeds would be more sensitive to differences in water availability and temperature than common arable weeds. To this end, we set up a climate chamber experiment where we exposed seeds of five familial pairs of common and endangered arable weed species to different temperatures (5/15, 10/20 °C) and water potentials (0.0 to -1.2 MPa). The results revealed a significant relationship between the reaction of arable weed species to water availability and their Red List status. The effects of reduced water availability on total germination, mean germination time and synchrony were significantly stronger in endangered than in common arable weeds. Therefore, global climate change may present a further threat to the survival of endangered arable weed species. © 2015 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Blue Water Trade-Offs With Vegetation in a CO2-Enriched Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Seager, Richard; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Williams, A. Park; Horton, Radley M.

2018-04-01

Present and future freshwater availability and drought risks are physically tied to the responses of surface vegetation to increasing CO2. A single-model large ensemble identifies the occurrence of colocated warming- and CO2-induced leaf area index increases with summer soil moisture declines. This pattern of "greening" and "drying," which occurs over 42% of global vegetated land area, is largely attributable to changes in the partitioning of precipitation at the land surface away from runoff and toward terrestrial vegetation ecosystems. Changes in runoff and ecosystem partitioning are inversely related, with changes in runoff partitioning being governed by changes in precipitation (mean and extremes) and ecosystem partitioning being governed by ecosystem water use and surface resistance to evapotranspiration (ET). Projections show that warming-influenced and CO2-enriched terrestrial vegetation ecosystems use water that historically would have been partitioned to runoff over 48% of global vegetated land areas, largely in Western North America, the Amazon, and Europe, many of the same regions with colocated greening and drying. These results have implications for how water available for people will change in response to anthropogenic warming and raise important questions about model representations of vegetation water responses to high CO2.

Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

Treesearch

Peter Caldwell; Catalina Segura; Shelby Gull Laird; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Maria Sandercock; Johnny Boggs; James M. Vose

2015-01-01

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we...

Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-07-01

This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

Insights on the energy-water nexus through modeling of the integrated water cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Voisin, N.; Leng, G.

2016-12-01

For sustainable energy planning, understanding the impacts of climate change, land use change, and water management is essential as they all exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production. An integrated water model representing river processes, irrigation water use and water management has been developed and coupled to a land surface model to investigate the energy-water nexus. Simulations driven by two climate change projections with the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on both floods and droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the climate mitigation (RCP 4.5) and business as usual (RCP 8.5) scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to energy production. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) to enable investigation of the energy-water nexus in the fully coupled Earth system.

Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production.

PubMed

Delpla, I; Jung, A-V; Baures, E; Clement, M; Thomas, O

2009-11-01

Besides climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological risks, the consequences on water quality is just beginning to be studied. This review aims at proposing a synthesis of the most recent existing interdisciplinary literature on the topic. After a short presentation about the role of the main factors (warming and consequences of extreme events) explaining climate change effects on water quality, the focus will be on two main points. First, the impacts on water quality of resources (rivers and lakes) modifying parameters values (physico-chemical parameters, micropollutants and biological parameters) are considered. Then, the expected impacts on drinking water production and quality of supplied water are discussed. The main conclusion which can be drawn is that a degradation trend of drinking water quality in the context of climate change leads to an increase of at risk situations related to potential health impact.

Landsat Evapotranspiration for Historical Field-scale Water Use (1984-2015) in the Upper Rio Grande River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senay, G. B.; Schauer, M.; Singh, R. K.; Friedrichs, M.

2017-12-01

Field-scale water use maps derived from evapotranspiration (ET) can characterize water use patterns and the impacts of water management decisions. This project generated historical (1984-2015) Landsat-based ET maps for the entire Upper Rio Grande basin which makes this one of the largest regions in the United States with remotely sensed historical ET at Landsat resolution. More than 10,000 Landsat images spanning 32 years were processed using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model which integrates weather data and remotely sensed images to estimate monthly and annual ET. Time-series analysis focused on three water-intensive study areas within the basin: the San Luis Valley in Colorado, irrigated fields along the Rio Grande River near Albuquerque, NM, and irrigated fields near Las Cruces, NM. Preliminary analysis suggests land use changes result in declining water use in irrigated areas of the basin which corresponds with increases in land surface temperatures. Time-series analysis of water use patterns at multiple temporal and spatial scales demonstrates the impact of water management decisions on the availability of water in the basin. Comparisons with cropland data from the USDA (NASS CDL) demonstrate how water use for particular crop types changes over time in response to land use changes and shifts in water management. This study illustrates a useful application of "Big Data" earth observation science for quantifying impacts of climate and land use changes on water availability within the United States as well as applications in planning water resource allocation, managing water rights, and sustaining agricultural production in the Upper Rio Grande basin.

Microbial Response to Experimentally Controlled Redox Transitions at the Sediment Water Interface.

PubMed

Frindte, Katharina; Allgaier, Martin; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Eckert, Werner

2015-01-01

The sediment-water interface of freshwater lakes is characterized by sharp chemical gradients, shaped by the interplay between physical, chemical and microbial processes. As dissolved oxygen is depleted in the uppermost sediment, the availability of alternative electron acceptors, e.g. nitrate and sulfate, becomes the limiting factor. We performed a time series experiment in a mesocosm to simulate the transition from aerobic to anaerobic conditions at the sediment-water interface. Our goal was to identify changes in the microbial activity due to redox transitions induced by successive depletion of available electron acceptors. Monitoring critical hydrochemical parameters in the overlying water in conjunction with a new sampling strategy for sediment bacteria enabled us to correlate redox changes in the water to shifts in the active microbial community and the expression of functional genes representing specific redox-dependent microbial processes. Our results show that during several transitions from oxic-heterotrophic condition to sulfate-reducing condition, nitrate-availability and the on-set of sulfate reduction strongly affected the corresponding functional gene expression. There was evidence of anaerobic methane oxidation with NOx. DGGE analysis revealed redox-related changes in microbial activity and expression of functional genes involved in sulfate and nitrite reduction, whereas methanogenesis and methanotrophy showed only minor changes during redox transitions. The combination of high-frequency chemical measurements and molecular methods provide new insights into the temporal dynamics of the interplay between microbial activity and specific redox transitions at the sediment-water interface.

High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

The U.S. electricity sector depends on large amounts of water for hydropower generation and cooling thermoelectric power plants. Variability in water quantity and temperature due to climate change could reduce the performance and reliability of individual power plants and of the electric grid as a system. While studies have modeled water usage in power systems planning, few have linked grid operations with physical water constraints or with climate-induced changes in water resources to capture the role of the energy-water nexus in power systems flexibility and adequacy. In addition, many hydrologic and hydropower models have a limited representation of power sector water demands and grid interaction opportunities of demand response and ancillary services. A multi-model framework was developed to integrate and harmonize electricity, water, and climate models, allowing for high-resolution simulation of the spatial, temporal, and physical dynamics of these interacting systems. The San Juan River basin in the Southwestern U.S., which contains thermoelectric power plants, hydropower facilities, and multiple non-energy water demands, was chosen as a case study. Downscaled data from three global climate models and predicted regional water demand changes were implemented in the simulations. The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model was used to project inflows, ambient air temperature, and humidity in the San Juan River Basin. Resulting river operations, water deliveries, water shortage sharing agreements, new water demands, and hydroelectricity generation at the basin-scale were estimated with RiverWare. The impacts of water availability and temperature on electric grid dispatch, curtailment, cooling water usage, and electricity generation cost were modeled in PLEXOS. Lack of water availability resulting from climate, new water demands, and shortage sharing agreements will require thermoelectric generators to drastically decrease power production, as much as 50% during intensifying drought scenarios, which can have broader electricity sector system implications. Results relevant to stakeholder and power provider interests highlight the vulnerabilities in grid operations driven by water shortage agreements and changes in the climate.

Soil responses to management, increased precipitation, and added nitrogen in ponderosa pine forests.

PubMed

Hungate, Bruce A; Hart, Stephen C; Selmants, Paul C; Boyle, Sarah I; Gehring, Catherine A

2007-07-01

Forest management, climatic change, and atmospheric N deposition can affect soil biogeochemistry, but their combined effects are not well understood. We examined the effects of water and N amendments and forest thinning and burning on soil N pools and fluxes in ponderosa pine forests near Flagstaff, Arizona (USA). Using a 15N-depleted fertilizer, we also documented the distribution of added N into soil N pools. Because thinning and burning can increase soil water content and N availability, we hypothesized that these changes would alleviate water and N limitation of soil processes, causing smaller responses to added N and water in the restored stand. We found little support for this hypothesis. Responses of fine root biomass, potential net N mineralization, and the soil microbial N to water and N amendments were mostly unaffected by stand management. Most of the soil processes we examined were limited by N and water, and the increased N and soil water availability caused by forest restoration was insufficient to alleviate these limitations. For example, N addition caused a larger increase in potential net nitrification in the restored stand, and at a given level of soil N availability, N addition had a larger effect on soil microbial N in the restored stand. Possibly, forest restoration increased the availability of some other limiting resource, amplifying responses to added N and water. Tracer N recoveries in roots and in the forest floor were lower in the restored stand. Natural abundance delta15N of labile soil N pools were higher in the restored stand, consistent with a more open N cycle. We conclude that thinning and burning open up the N cycle, at least in the short-term, and that these changes are amplified by enhanced precipitation and N additions. Our results suggest that thinning and burning in ponderosa pine forests will not increase their resistance to changes in soil N dynamics resulting from increased atmospheric N deposition or increased precipitation due to climatic change. Restoration plans should consider the potential impact on long-term forest productivity of greater N losses from a more open N cycle, especially during the period immediately after thinning and burning.

Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagán, Brianna R.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kendall, Donald R.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Mei, Rui; Pal, Jeremy S.

2016-09-01

The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble modeling approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift towards more rainfall, reduced cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in the frequency and the intensity of both drier conditions and flooding events. The 50 year extreme daily maximum precipitation and runoff events are 1.5-6 times more likely to occur depending on the water supply basin. Simultaneously, a clear deficit in total annual runoff over mountainous snow generating regions like the Sierra Nevada is projected. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from control reservoirs, which may potentially decrease water availability outside of the wet season. Lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with projected climate changes and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.

Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

2010-12-01

Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and discuss the impact of climate change on future development of the region.

77 FR 19661 - Draft National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-02

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OW-2011-0943; FRL-9655-1] Draft National Water Program 2012 Strategy: Response to Climate Change AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice of availability and request for comments. SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency is publishing...

The Impacts of Water Quality and Food Availability on Children's Health in West Africa: A Spatial Analysis Using Remotely Sensed Data and Small-Scale Water Quality Data and Country-level Health Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, L.; Grace, K.; Lloyd, B.

2014-12-01

As the global climate changes and the populations of many African countries grow, ensuring clean drinking water and food has become a pressing concern. Because of their vulnerability to malnutrition and food insecurity, children face the greatest risk for adverse health outcomes related to climate change. Vulnerability, however, is highly variable, with some children in food insecure communities showing healthy growth, while some children in food secure communities show signs of malnutrition. In West Africa, Burkina Faso faces high levels of child malnutrition, loses to farmland and a large share of the population have no access to clean water. Because the overwhelming majority of children rely on locally grown, rainfed agriculture and well/surface water, the combined impact of climate change and population growth decreases water availability and farmland per person. However, there is notable community and individual variation in malnutrition levels suggesting that there are important coping strategies that vulnerable families may use to secure their children's health. No spatially relevant analysis of water and food insecurity and children's health exists for Burkina Faso. The goal of this research is to identify and quantify the combined and inter-related impact of unsafe drinking water and community-level food availability on the physical health outcomes of Burkinabe children under five years of age. To accomplish this goal we rely on a publically available highly detailed, geo-referenced data set (Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)) to provide information on measures of childhood malnutrition and details on parental characteristics related to children's health. Information on water source (covered/uncovered well, piped water, etc.) and water quality (measures of arsenic and pollution) comes from DHS along with a recently collected geo-referenced US Agency for International Development (USAID) data set. Critical information on food production, environmental characteristics and population density come from high resolution remotely sensed data.

The Impacts of Water Quality and Food Availability on Children's Health in West Africa: A Spatial Analysis Using Remotely Sensed Data and Small-Scale Water Quality Data and Country-level Health Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, L.; Grace, K.; Lloyd, B.

2015-12-01

As the global climate changes and the populations of many African countries grow, ensuring clean drinking water and food has become a pressing concern. Because of their vulnerability to malnutrition and food insecurity, children face the greatest risk for adverse health outcomes related to climate change. Vulnerability, however, is highly variable, with some children in food insecure communities showing healthy growth, while some children in food secure communities show signs of malnutrition. In West Africa, Burkina Faso faces high levels of child malnutrition, loses to farmland and a large share of the population have no access to clean water. Because the overwhelming majority of children rely on locally grown, rainfed agriculture and well/surface water, the combined impact of climate change and population growth decreases water availability and farmland per person. However, there is notable community and individual variation in malnutrition levels suggesting that there are important coping strategies that vulnerable families may use to secure their children's health. No spatially relevant analysis of water and food insecurity and children's health exists for Burkina Faso. The goal of this research is to identify and quantify the combined and inter-related impact of unsafe drinking water and community-level food availability on the physical health outcomes of Burkinabe children under five years of age. To accomplish this goal we rely on a publically available highly detailed, geo-referenced data set (Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)) to provide information on measures of childhood malnutrition and details on parental characteristics related to children's health. Information on water source (covered/uncovered well, piped water, etc.) and water quality (measures of arsenic and pollution) comes from DHS along with a recently collected geo-referenced US Agency for International Development (USAID) data set. Critical information on food production, environmental characteristics and population density come from high resolution remotely sensed data.

Climate change hampers endangered species through intensified moisture-related plant stresses (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartholomeus, R.; Witte, J.; van Bodegom, P.; Dam, J. V.; Aerts, R.

2010-12-01

With recent climate change, extremes in meteorological conditions are forecast and observed to increase globally, and to affect vegetation composition. More prolonged dry periods will alternate with more intensive rainfall events, both within and between years, which will change soil moisture dynamics. In temperate climates, soil moisture, in concert with nutrient availability and soil acidity, is the most important environmental filter in determining local plant species composition, as it determines the availability of both oxygen and water to plant roots. These resources are indispensable for meeting the physiological demands of plants. The consequences of climate change for our natural environment are among the most pressing issues of our time. The international research community is beginning to realise that climate extremes may be more powerful drivers of vegetation change and species extinctions than slow-and-steady climatic changes, but the causal mechanisms of such changes are presently unknown. The roles of amplitudes in water availability as drivers of vegetation change have been particularly elusive owing to the lack of integration of the key variables involved. Here we show that the combined effect of increased rainfall variability, temperature and atmospheric CO2-concentration will lead to an increased variability in both wet and dry extremes in stresses faced by plants (oxygen and water stress, respectively). We simulated these plant stresses with a novel, process-based approach, incorporating in detail the interacting processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. In order to quantify oxygen and water stress with causal measures, we focused on interacting meteorological, soil physical, microbial, and plant physiological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. As both the supply and demand of oxygen and water depend strongly on the prevailing meteorological conditions, both oxygen and water stress were calculated dynamically in time to capture climate change effects. We demonstrate that increased rainfall variability in interaction with predicted changes in temperature and CO2, affects soil moisture conditions and plant oxygen and water demands such, that both oxygen stress and water stress will intensify due to climate change. Moreover, these stresses will increasingly coincide, causing variable stress conditions. These variable stress conditions were found to decrease future habitat suitability, especially for plant species that are presently endangered. The future existence of such species is thus at risk by climate change, which has direct implications for policies to maintain endangered species, as applied by international nature management organisations (e.g. IUCN). Our integrated mechanistic analysis of two stresses combined, which has never been done so far, reveals large impacts of climate change on species extinctions and thereby on biodiversity.

A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

2017-04-01

Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land surface model-flood inundation model to produce hydrological variables and indices at daily, 0.25-degree resolution, globally. The system is updated in near real-time (< 2 days) using satellite precipitation and weather model data, and produces forecasts at short-term (out to 7 days) based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) and seasonal (up to 6 months) based on U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts. Climate change projections are based on bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate data that is used to force the hydrological model. Example products from the system include real-time and forecast drought indices for precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow, and flood magnitude and extent indices. The model outputs are complemented by satellite based products and indices based on satellite data for vegetation health (MODIS NDVI) and soil moisture (SMAP). We show examples of the validation of the system at regional scales, including how local information can significantly improve predictions, and examples of how the system can be used to understand large-scale water resource issues, and in real-world contexts for early warning, decision making and planning.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, D.V.; Steiger, J.I.; Sory, J.D.; Garrett, R.B.; Burden, Carole B.; Danner, M.R.; Herbert, L.R.; Gerner, S.J.; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.; Bagley, A.D.

1995-01-01

This is the thirty-second in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources, provide data to enable interested parties to keep abreast of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, related changes in precipitation and streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Supplementary data, such as maps showing water-level contours, are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas for which applicable data are available and are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 1994. Much of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Divisions of Water Rights and Water Resources.

Groundwater conditions in Utah, spring of 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Birken, Adam S.; Gerner, Steven J.; Carricaburu, John P.; Derrick, V. Noah; Downhour, Paul; Smith, Lincoln; Eacret, Robert J.; Gibson, Travis L.; Slaugh, Bradley A.; Whittier, Nickolas R.; Howells, James H.; Christiansen, Howard K.; Fisher, Martel J.

2014-01-01

This is the fifty-first in a series of annual reports that describe groundwater conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing groundwater conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, groundwater withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of groundwater. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas that are important to a discussion of changing groundwater conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of groundwater development in the State for calendar year 2013. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is also available online at http://www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water. usgs.gov/publications/GW2014.pdf. Groundwater conditions in Utah for calendar year 2012 are reported in Burden and others (2013) and are available online at http://ut.water.usgs. gov/publications/GW2013.pdf

Groundwater conditions in Utah, Spring of 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.

2017-01-01

This is the fifty-fourth in a series of annual reports that describe groundwater conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing groundwater conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, groundwater withdrawals from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to new wells constructed for withdrawal of groundwater. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas that are important to a discussion of changing groundwater conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of groundwater development in the State for calendar year 2016. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is also available online at http://www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/GW2017.pdf. Groundwater conditions in Utah for calendar year 2015 are reported in Burden and others (2016) and are available online at http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/GW2016.pdf.

Groundwater conditions in Utah, spring of 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.

2014-01-01

This is the fifty-first in a series of annual reports that describe groundwater conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing groundwater conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, groundwater withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of groundwater. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas that are important to a discussion of changing groundwater conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of groundwater development in the State for calendar year 2013. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is also available online at http://www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water. usgs.gov/publications/GW2014.pdf. Groundwater conditions in Utah for calendar year 2012 are reported in Burden and others (2013) and are available online at http://ut.water.usgs. gov/publications/GW2013.pdf

Groundwater conditions in Utah, spring of 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Birken, Adam S.; Derrick, V. Noah; Fisher, Martel J.; Holt, Christopher M.; Downhour, Paul; Smith, Lincoln; Eacret, Robert J.; Gibson, Travis L.; Slaugh, Bradley A.; Whittier, Nickolas R.; Howells, James H.; Christiansen, Howard K.

2013-01-01

This is the fiftieth in a series of annual reports that describe groundwater conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing groundwater conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, groundwater withdrawals from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of groundwater. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas that are important to a discussion of changing groundwater conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of groundwater development in the State for calendar year 2012. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is also available online at http://www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water. usgs.gov/publications/GW2013.pdf. Groundwater conditions in Utah for calendar year 2011 are reported in Burden and others (2012) and available online at http://ut.water.usgs.gov/ publications/GW2012.pdf

Groundwater conditions in Utah, spring of 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Allen, David V.; Holt, Christopher M.; Fisher, Martel J.; Downhour, Paul; Smith, Lincoln; Eacret, Robert J.; Gibson, Travis L.; Slaugh, Bradley A.; Whittier, Nickolas R.; Howells, James H.; Christiansen, Howard K.

2012-01-01

This is the forty-ninth in a series of annual reports that describe groundwater conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing groundwater conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, groundwater withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of groundwater. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas that are important to a discussion of changing groundwater conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of groundwater development in the State for calendar year 2011. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is also available online at http:// www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs. gov/publications/GW2012.pdf. Groundwater conditions in Utah for calendar year 2010 are reported in Burden and others (2011) and available online at http://ut.water.usgs.gov/ publications/GW2011.pdf.

Groundwater conditions in Utah, spring of 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.

2016-01-01

This is the fifty-third in a series of annual reports that describe groundwater conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing groundwater conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, groundwater withdrawals from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to new wells constructed for withdrawal of groundwater. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas that are important to a discussion of changing groundwater conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of groundwater development in the State for calendar year 2015. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is also available online at http://www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/GW2016.pdf. Groundwater conditions in Utah for calendar year 2014 are reported in Burden and others (2015) and are available online at http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/GW2015.pdf

Water, plants, and early human habitats in eastern Africa.

PubMed

Magill, Clayton R; Ashley, Gail M; Freeman, Katherine H

2013-01-22

Water and its influence on plants likely exerted strong adaptive pressures in human evolution. Understanding relationships among water, plants, and early humans is limited both by incomplete terrestrial records of environmental change and by indirect proxy data for water availability. Here we present a continuous record of stable hydrogen-isotope compositions (expressed as δD values) for lipid biomarkers preserved in lake sediments from an early Pleistocene archaeological site in eastern Africa--Olduvai Gorge. We convert sedimentary leaf- and algal-lipid δD values into estimates for ancient source-water δD values by accounting for biochemical, physiological, and environmental influences on isotopic fractionation via published water-lipid enrichment factors for living plants, algae, and recent sediments. Reconstructed precipitation and lake-water δD values, respectively, are consistent with modern isotopic hydrology and reveal that dramatic fluctuations in water availability accompanied ecosystem changes. Drier conditions, indicated by less negative δD values, occur in association with stable carbon-isotopic evidence for open, C(4)-dominated grassland ecosystems. Wetter conditions, indicated by lower δD values, are associated with expanded woody cover across the ancient landscape. Estimates for ancient precipitation amounts, based on reconstructed precipitation δD values, range between approximately 250 and 700 mm · y(-1) and are consistent with modern precipitation data for eastern Africa. We conclude that freshwater availability exerted a substantial influence on eastern African ecosystems and, by extension, was central to early human proliferation during periods of rapid climate change.

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

2012-08-01

The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

Quantifying Fast and Slow Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Exchange across a Water Availability Gradient in North American Flux Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Goulden, M.

2014-12-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and severity of water limitation, altering terrestrial ecosystems and their carbon exchange with the atmosphere. Here we compare site-level temporal sensitivity of annual carbon fluxes to interannual variations in water availability against cross-site spatial patterns over a network of 19 eddy covariance flux sites. This network represents one order of magnitude in mean annual productivity and includes western North American desert shrublands and grasslands, savannahs, woodlands, and forests with continuous records of 4 to 12 years. Our analysis reveals site-specific patterns not identifiable in prior syntheses that pooled sites. We interpret temporal variability as an indicator of ecosystem response to annual water availability due to fast-changing factors such as leaf stomatal response and microbial activity, while cross-site spatial patterns are used to infer ecosystem adjustment to climatic water availability through slow-changing factors such as plant community and organic carbon pools. Using variance decomposition, we directly quantify how terrestrial carbon balance depends on slow- and fast-changing components of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and total ecosystem respiration (TER). Slow factors explain the majority of variance in annual net ecosystem production (NEP) across the dataset, and their relative importance is greater at wetter, forest sites than desert ecosystems. Site-specific offsets from spatial patterns of GEP and TER explain one third of NEP variance, likely due to slow-changing factors not directly linked to water, such as disturbance. TER and GEP are correlated across sites as previously shown, but our site-level analysis reveals surprisingly consistent linear relationships between these fluxes in deserts and savannahs, indicating fast coupling of TER and GEP in more arid ecosystems. Based on the uncertainty associated with slow and fast factors, we suggest a framework for improved prediction of terrestrial carbon balance. We will also present results of ongoing work to quantify fast and slow contributions to the relationship between evapotranspiration and precipitation across a precipitation gradient.

Differential growth responses to water balance of coexisting deciduous tree species are linked to wood density in a Bolivian tropical dry forest.

PubMed

Mendivelso, Hooz A; Camarero, J Julio; Royo Obregón, Oriol; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Toledo, Marisol

2013-01-01

A seasonal period of water deficit characterizes tropical dry forests (TDFs). There, sympatric tree species exhibit a diversity of growth rates, functional traits, and responses to drought, suggesting that each species may possess different strategies to grow under different conditions of water availability. The evaluation of the long-term growth responses to changes in the soil water balance should provide an understanding of how and when coexisting tree species respond to water deficit in TDFs. Furthermore, such differential growth responses may be linked to functional traits related to water storage and conductance. We used dendrochronology and climate data to retrospectively assess how the radial growth of seven coexisting deciduous tree species responded to the seasonal soil water balance in a Bolivian TDF. Linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the relationships between basal area increment and seasonal water balance. We related these relationships with wood density and sapwood production to assess if they affect the growth responses to climate. The growth of all species responded positively to water balance during the wet season, but such responses differed among species as a function of their wood density. For instance, species with a strong growth response to water availability averaged a low wood density which may facilitate the storage of water in the stem. By contrast, species with very dense wood were those whose growth was less sensitive to water availability. Coexisting tree species thus show differential growth responses to changes in soil water balance during the wet season. Our findings also provide a link between wood density, a trait related to the ability of trees to store water in the stem, and wood formation in response to water availability.

Differential Growth Responses to Water Balance of Coexisting Deciduous Tree Species Are Linked to Wood Density in a Bolivian Tropical Dry Forest

PubMed Central

Mendivelso, Hooz A.; Camarero, J. Julio; Royo Obregón, Oriol; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Toledo, Marisol

2013-01-01

A seasonal period of water deficit characterizes tropical dry forests (TDFs). There, sympatric tree species exhibit a diversity of growth rates, functional traits, and responses to drought, suggesting that each species may possess different strategies to grow under different conditions of water availability. The evaluation of the long-term growth responses to changes in the soil water balance should provide an understanding of how and when coexisting tree species respond to water deficit in TDFs. Furthermore, such differential growth responses may be linked to functional traits related to water storage and conductance. We used dendrochronology and climate data to retrospectively assess how the radial growth of seven coexisting deciduous tree species responded to the seasonal soil water balance in a Bolivian TDF. Linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the relationships between basal area increment and seasonal water balance. We related these relationships with wood density and sapwood production to assess if they affect the growth responses to climate. The growth of all species responded positively to water balance during the wet season, but such responses differed among species as a function of their wood density. For instance, species with a strong growth response to water availability averaged a low wood density which may facilitate the storage of water in the stem. By contrast, species with very dense wood were those whose growth was less sensitive to water availability. Coexisting tree species thus show differential growth responses to changes in soil water balance during the wet season. Our findings also provide a link between wood density, a trait related to the ability of trees to store water in the stem, and wood formation in response to water availability. PMID:24116001

The Carbon Balance Pivot Point of Southwestern U.S. Semiarid Ecosystems: Insights From the 21st Century Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Hamerlynck, E. P.

2015-12-01

Global-scale studies indicate that semiarid ecosystems strongly regulate the long-term trend and interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon sink, possibly due to changes in vegetation and an inherent sensitivity to changes in water availability. However, we lack understanding of how climate shifts, such as the ongoing decadal-scale drought in the Southwest US, impact carbon sink functioning in semiarid ecosystems with differing structure. Therefore, we investigated the response of net ecosystem production of carbon dioxide (NEP) to changes in annual water availability in four Southwest US ecosystems varying in relative shrub, tree and grass abundance. Using eddy covariance carbon dioxide and water vapor flux measurements collected over the last drought-impacted decade, we identified a precipitation "pivot point" in the annual carbon balance for each ecosystem type where annual NEP switched from negative to positive. At the three sites with larger amounts of grass, rather than woody plant, cover, pivot points were closer to the drought-period mean annual precipitation (MAP) than MAP over the preceding 30 years, suggesting the carbon pools of these grassier ecosystems have more quickly adjusted to the decadal-scale drought. Current-year water availability, as quantified by evapotranspiration (ET) overwhelmingly drove the response of gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) and respiration (Reco) fluxes. Ecosystem water use efficiency (GEP/ET) increased with water availability and leaf area index, resulting in a more efficient photosynthetic use of water in wetter years and at wetter sites. Grasslands supported a higher leaf area than shrublands at a given water availability, and thus had higher GEP/ET. Differences in GEP/ET were also related to the relative proportion of abiotic evaporation, estimated from the ET intercept in a linear regression of ET and GEP, to total ET at a site, highlighting the importance of ET partitioning for understanding how semiarid rainfall drives plant productivity.

Soil physical property changes at the North American long-term soil productivity study sites: 1 and 5 years after compaction

Treesearch

Deborah S. Page-Dumroese; Martin F. Jurgensen; Allan E. Tiarks; Felix Ponder; Felipe G. Sanchez; Robert L. Fleming; J. Marty Kranabetter; Robert F. Powers; Douglas M. Stone; John D. Elioff; D. Andrew Scott

2006-01-01

The impact of forest management operations on soil physical properties is important to understand, since management can significantly change site productivity by altering root growth potential, water infiltration and soil erosion, and water and nutrient availability. We studied soil bulk density and strength changes as indicators of soil compaction before harvesting...

Assessment of 21st century change of climate drivers to hydrological change across the Appalachian Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, R.; Zegre, N.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric water supply and demand largely drives the available water in the land surface. Precipitation (P) is the main supply of water to the land surface, while water demand largely depends on energy supply. Most frameworks that analyze climate change have limit their scope to changes in P and temperature as an indicator of energy. However, atmospheric water demand is not only dependent on temperature but also on variables such as solar radiation, air humidity and wind. For this study, we use the downscaled GCM outputs of (P) and calculate atmospheric water demand by aggregating solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind as potential evapotranspiration (EP) using the Penman-Monteith equation across the Appalachian Region. We investigate absolute changes in P and EP and changes in their relation or aridity index (AI=EP/P) to spatially determine places becoming wetter or drier. Moreover, we explore how their changes are distributed throughout the year, i.e. changes in the seasonality for P and widening of the intra-annual cycle of EP. The changes in seasonality can act as a further indicator of the partition of precipitation into evaporation or land surface water. Changes of precipitation that occur during summer are likely to be partitioned towards evapotranspiration whereas changes in winter are likely to be absorbed by land surface components of storage and runoff. Furthermore, widening of the intra-annual cycle of EP means that there will be water demand for a longer part of the year (earlier in spring and later in autumn). Our results show that places with lower mean annual temperature are likely to experience larger temperature changes. Regarding the AI, the Eastern Coasts of North and South Carolina, and Georgia as well as Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky are likely to get drier. The states of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and inland North and South Carolina and Alabama are likely to become wetter, with West Virginia having mixed results. Most of the changes in P are projected to take place during winter in Ohio and New York, whereas they are likely to happen in summer south of Ohio and Pennsylvania. These results highlight areas where water availability will change given projected changes in atmospheric water supply and demand across the Appalachian region.

Projecting water resources changes in potential large-scale agricultural investment areas of the Kafue River Basin in Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Trainor, A. M.; Baker, T. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts regional water availability through the spatial and temporal redistribution of available water resources. This study focuses on understanding possible response of water resources to climate change in regions where potentials for large-scale agricultural investments are planned in the upper and middle Kafue River Basin in Zambia. We used historical and projected precipitation and temperature to assess changes in water yield, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Some of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model outputs for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios project a temperature warming range from 1.8 - 5.7 °C over the region from 2020 to 2095. Precipitation projection patterns vary monthly but tend toward drier dry seasons with a slight increase in precipitation during the rainy season as compared to the historical time series. The best five calibrated parameter sets generated for the historical record (1965 - 2005) were applied for two future periods, 2020 - 2060 and 2055 - 2095, to project water yield change. Simulations projected that the 90th percentile water yield would be exceeded across most of the study area by up to 800% under the medium-low (RCP4.5) CO2 emission scenario, whereas the high (RCP8.5) CO2 emission scenario resulted in a more spatially varied pattern mixed with increasing (up to 500%) and decreasing (up to -54%) trends. The 10th percentile water yield indicated spatially varied pattern across the basin, increasing by as much as 500% though decreasing in some areas by 66%, with the greatest decreases during the dry season under RCP8.5. Overall, available water resources in the study area are projected to trend toward increased floods (i.e. water yields far exceeding 90th percentile) as well as increasing drought (i.e. water yield far below 10th percentile) vulnerability. Because surface water is a primary source for agriculture in this region, planning must focus on simulating the potential range in spatial and temporal variability of water resources for different agricultural production schemes, their infrastructure requirements, and attendant influence on water resources in the basin.

Using Bayesian methods to predict climate impacts on groundwater availability and agricultural production in Punjab, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

2015-12-01

Lasting success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India relies on continued availability of local water resources. Supplying primarily rice and wheat for the rest of India, Punjab supports crop irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. The detailed data required to physically model future impacts on water supplies agricultural production is not readily available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements for an under-constrained mass balance model. Using measured values of historical precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we present a method using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to solve for a distribution of values for each unknown parameter in a conceptual mass balance model. Due to heterogeneity across the state, and the resolution of input data, we estimate model parameters at the district-scale using spatial pooling. The resulting model is used to predict the impact of precipitation change scenarios on groundwater availability under multiple cropping options. Predicted groundwater declines vary across the state, suggesting that crop selection and water management strategies should be determined at a local scale. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where water resource management is required to resolve competition between food security and available resources in a changing climate.

Water Availability for the Western United States - Key Scientific Challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Mark Theodore; Woosley, Lloyd H.

2005-01-01

In the Western United States, the availability of water has become a serious concern for many communities and rural areas. Near population centers, surface-water supplies are fully appropriated, and many communities are dependent upon ground water drawn from storage, which is an unsustainable strategy. Water of acceptable quality is increasingly hard to find because local sources are allocated to prior uses, depleted by overpumping, or diminished by drought stress. Some of the inherent characteristics of the West add complexity to the task of securing water supplies. The Western States, including the arid Southwest, have the most rapid population growth in the United States. The climate varies widely in the West, but it is best known for its low precipitation, aridity, and drought. There is evidence that the climate is warming, which will have consequences for Western water supplies, such as increased minimum streamflow and earlier snowmelt events in snow-dominated basins. The potential for departures from average climatic conditions threatens to disrupt society and local to regional economies. The appropriative rights doctrine governs the management of water in most Western States, although some aspects of the riparian doctrine are being incorporated. The 'use it or lose it' provisions of Western water law discourage conservation and make the reallocation of water to instream environmental uses more difficult. The hydrologic sciences have defined the interconnectedness of ground water and surface water, yet these resources are still administered separately by most States. The definition of water availability has been expanded to include sustaining riparian ecosystems and individual endangered species, which are disproportionately represented in the Western States. Federal reserved rights, common in the West because of the large amount of Federal land, exist with quite senior priority dates whether or not water is currently being used. A major challenge for water users in the West is that these reserved rights may supersede other existing users. The minimum amount of water required, however, to sustain native peoples, a riparian system, or an endangered species eventually will need to be known in order to manage the available water supply. Periodic inventory and assessment of the amounts and trends of water available in surface water and ground water are needed to support water management. There is a widespread perception that the amount of available water is diminishing with time. This and other perceptions about water availability should be replaced by objective data and analysis. Some data are presented here for the major Western rivers that show that flows are not decreasing in most streams and rivers in the West. Systematic information is lacking to make broad assessments of ground-water availability, but available data for specific aquifers indicate that these aquifers are being depleted, especially near population centers. The complexity added to the issue of Western water availability by these and other factors gives rise to a significant role of science. Science has played a role in support of Western water development from the beginning, and the role has evolved and changed over time as society's values have changed. In this report, the role of science is discussed in three phases: (1) development and construction, (2) consequences and environmental awareness, and (3) sustainability. The development and construction phase includes some historical accounting of water development in the West and shows how some precedents set in those early days are still applied today. Science has played an important role in the second phase by objectively pointing out the consequences of this development and construction phase, such as the effects from converting rivers to reservoirs, the effects of ground-water pumping on surface water in streams, land-surface subsidence, and the changes in water quality brought about by the dispo

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic.

Biochar can positively influence soil moisture relations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One major issue related to climate change is the potential to improve soil water relations in light of changes in future precipitation patterns or reductions in water availability in drier portions of the world (such as the western US). It appears that biochar may play a positive role, but that rol...

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Allen, David V.; Danner, M.R.; Walzem, Vince; Cillessen, J.L.; Downhour, Paul; Wilkowske, C.D.; Eacret, Robert J.; Wilberg, D.E.; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.; Fisher, M.J.

2006-01-01

This is the forty-third in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable inter­ested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water with­drawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2005. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is available online at http://www.waterrights.utah. gov/techinfo/wwwpub/gw2006.pdf and http://ut.water.usgs. gov/publications/GW2006.pdf.

A Marginal Cost Based "Social Cost of Carbon" Provides Inappropriate Guidance in a World That Needs Rapid and Deep Decarbonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, M. G.; Vaishnav, P.; Azevedo, I. L.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2016-12-01

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

Blue water tradeoffs with ecosystems in a CO2-enriched climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, J. S.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, B. I.; Williams, A. P.; Seager, R.

2017-12-01

Present and future freshwater availability and drought risks are physically tied to the competing responses of surface vegetation to increasing CO2, which includes radiative and plant physiological forcing, as well as their consequences for plant phenology, water use efficiency, and CO2 fertilization. Because Earth system models (ESMs) have increased their sophistication in representing the coupling among biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes at the land surface, projected linkages among ecosystem responses to CO2 and blue water (runoff) can be explored. A detailed analysis of the Western US demonstrates that CO2- and radiatively-induced vegetation growth drives projected decreases in soil moisture and runoff in the NCAR CESM LENS, creating a curious pattern of colocated 'greening' and 'drying.' Here we explore these responses at the global-scale and the consequences of such vegetation-driven drying on blue water availability for people. We present a simple metric that quantifies the tradeoff that occurs between ecosystems and blue water and link their occurrence to changes in daily-scale precipitation extremes, plant functional types, and changes in leaf areas. These results have implications for blue water availability for people and raise important questions about model representations of vegetation-water responses to high CO2.

Mycorrhizal fungi enhance plant nutrient acquisition and modulate nitrogen loss with variable water regimes.

PubMed

Bowles, Timothy M; Jackson, Louise E; Cavagnaro, Timothy R

2018-01-01

Climate change will alter both the amount and pattern of precipitation and soil water availability, which will directly affect plant growth and nutrient acquisition, and potentially, ecosystem functions like nutrient cycling and losses as well. Given their role in facilitating plant nutrient acquisition and water stress resistance, arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi may modulate the effects of changing water availability on plants and ecosystem functions. The well-characterized mycorrhizal tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) genotype 76R (referred to as MYC+) and the mutant mycorrhiza-defective tomato genotype rmc were grown in microcosms in a glasshouse experiment manipulating both the pattern and amount of water supply in unsterilized field soil. Following 4 weeks of differing water regimes, we tested how AM fungi affected plant productivity and nutrient acquisition, short-term interception of a 15NH4+ pulse, and inorganic nitrogen (N) leaching from microcosms. AM fungi enhanced plant nutrient acquisition with both lower and more variable water availability, for instance increasing plant P uptake more with a pulsed water supply compared to a regular supply and increasing shoot N concentration more when lower water amounts were applied. Although uptake of the short-term 15NH4+ pulse was higher in rmc plants, possibly due to higher N demand, AM fungi subtly modulated NO3- leaching, decreasing losses by 54% at low and high water levels in the regular water regime, with small absolute amounts of NO3- leached (<1 kg N/ha). Since this study shows that AM fungi will likely be an important moderator of plant and ecosystem responses to adverse effects of more variable precipitation, management strategies that bolster AM fungal communities may in turn create systems that are more resilient to these changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Planetary-scale surface water detection from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Winsemius, H.; Gorelick, N.

2017-12-01

Accurate, efficient and high-resolution methods of surface water detection are needed for a better water management. Datasets on surface water extent and dynamics are crucial for a better understanding of natural and human-made processes, and as an input data for hydrological and hydraulic models. In spite of considerable progress in the harmonization of freely available satellite data, producing accurate and efficient higher-level surface water data products remains very challenging. This presentation will provide an overview of existing methods for surface water extent and change detection from multitemporal and multi-sensor satellite imagery. An algorithm to detect surface water changes from multi-temporal satellite imagery will be demonstrated as well as its open-source implementation (http://aqua-monitor.deltares.nl). This algorithm was used to estimate global surface water changes at high spatial resolution. These changes include climate change, land reclamation, reservoir construction/decommissioning, erosion/accretion, and many other. This presentation will demonstrate how open satellite data and open platforms such as Google Earth Engine have helped with this research.

Changes in rainfall amount and frequency do not affect the outcome of the interaction between the shrub Retama sphaerocarpa and its neighbouring grasses in two semiarid communities

PubMed Central

Soliveres, Santiago; García-Palacios, Pablo; Maestre, Fernando T.; Escudero, Adrián; Valladares, Fernando

2015-01-01

We evaluated the net outcome of the interaction between the shrub Retama sphaerocarpa, our target plant, and different herbaceous neighbours in response to changes in the magnitude and frequency of rainfall events during three years. The experiment was conducted in natural and anthropogenic grasslands dominated by a perennial stress-tolerator and ruderal annual species, respectively. In spite of the neutral or positive effects of neighbours on water availability, neighbouring plants reduced the performance of Retama juveniles, suggesting competition for resources other than water. The negative effects of grasses on the photochemical efficiency of Retama juveniles decreased with higher water availabilities or heavier irrigation pulses, depending on the grassland studied; however, these effects did not extent to the survival and growth of Retama juveniles. Our findings show the prevalence of competitive interactions among the studied plants, regardless of the water availability and its temporal pattern. These results suggest that positive interactions may not prevail under harsher conditions when shade-intolerant species are involved. This study could be used to further refine our predictions of how plant-plant interactions will respond to changes in rainfall, either natural or increased by the ongoing climatic change, in ecosystems where grass-shrubs interactions are prevalent. PMID:25914429

Changes in rainfall amount and frequency do not affect the outcome of the interaction between the shrub Retama sphaerocarpa and its neighbouring grasses in two semiarid communities.

PubMed

Soliveres, Santiago; García-Palacios, Pablo; Maestre, Fernando T; Escudero, Adrián; Valladares, Fernando

2013-04-01

We evaluated the net outcome of the interaction between the shrub Retama sphaerocarpa , our target plant, and different herbaceous neighbours in response to changes in the magnitude and frequency of rainfall events during three years. The experiment was conducted in natural and anthropogenic grasslands dominated by a perennial stress-tolerator and ruderal annual species, respectively. In spite of the neutral or positive effects of neighbours on water availability, neighbouring plants reduced the performance of Retama juveniles, suggesting competition for resources other than water. The negative effects of grasses on the photochemical efficiency of Retama juveniles decreased with higher water availabilities or heavier irrigation pulses, depending on the grassland studied; however, these effects did not extent to the survival and growth of Retama juveniles. Our findings show the prevalence of competitive interactions among the studied plants, regardless of the water availability and its temporal pattern. These results suggest that positive interactions may not prevail under harsher conditions when shade-intolerant species are involved. This study could be used to further refine our predictions of how plant-plant interactions will respond to changes in rainfall, either natural or increased by the ongoing climatic change, in ecosystems where grass-shrubs interactions are prevalent.

Soil Microbial Properties and Plant Growth Responses to Carbon and Water Addition in a Temperate Steppe: The Importance of Nutrient Availability

PubMed Central

Guo, Chengyuan; Wang, Renzhong; Xiao, Chunwang

2012-01-01

Background Global climatic change is generally expected to stimulate net primary production, and consequently increase soil carbon (C) input. The enhanced C input together with potentially increased precipitation may affect soil microbial processes and plant growth. Methodology/Principal Findings To examine the effects of C and water additions on soil microbial properties and plant growth, we conducted an experiment lasting two years in a temperate steppe of northeastern China. We found that soil C and water additions significantly affected microbial properties and stimulated plant growth. Carbon addition significantly increased soil microbial biomass and activity but had a limited effect on microbial community structure. Water addition significantly increased soil microbial activity in the first year but the response to water decreased in the second year. The water-induced changes of microbial activity could be ascribed to decreased soil nitrogen (N) availability and to the shift in soil microbial community structure. However, no water effect on soil microbial activity was visible under C addition during the two years, likely because C addition alleviated nutrient limitation of soil microbes. In addition, C and water additions interacted to affect plant functional group composition. Water addition significantly increased the ratio of grass to forb biomass in C addition plots but showed only minor effects under ambient C levels. Our results suggest that soil microbial activity and plant growth are limited by nutrient (C and N) and water availability, and highlight the importance of nutrient availability in modulating the responses of soil microbes and plants to potentially increased precipitation in the temperate steppe. Conclusions/Significance Increased soil C input and precipitation would show significant effects on soil microbial properties and plant growth in the temperate steppe. These findings will improve our understanding of the responses of soil microbes and plants to the indirect and direct climate change effects. PMID:22496905

Improving models to assess impacts of climate change on Mediterranean water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, João; Carvalho Santos, Cláudia; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro

2016-04-01

In recent decades, water availability for human consumption has faced major constraints due to increasing pollution and reduced water availability. Water resources availability can gain additional stresses and pressures in the context of potential climate change scenarios. For the last decades, the climate change paradigm has been the scope of many researchers and the focus of decision makers, policies and environmental/climate legislation. Decision-makers face a wide range of constrains, as they are forced to define new strategies that merge planning, management and climate change adaptations. In turn, decision-makers must create integrated strategies aiming at the sustainable use of resources. There are multiple uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment and water resources. Typically, most studies have dealt with uncertainties in emission scenarios and resulting socio-economic conditions, including land-use and water use. Less frequently, studies have address the disparities between the future climates generated by climate models for the same greenhouse gas concentrations; and the uncertainties related with the limited knowledge of how watersheds work, which also limits the capacity to simulate them with models. Therefore, the objective of this study is to apply the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to a catchment in Alentejo, southern Portugal; and to evaluate the uncertainty associated both to the calibration of hydrological models and the use of different climate change scenarios and models (a combination of 4 GCM (General Circulation Models) and 1 RCM (Regional Circulation Models) for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Alentejo region is highly vulnerable to the effects of potential climate changes with particular focus on water resources availability, despite several reservoirs used for freshwater supply and agriculture irrigation (e.g. the Alqueva reservoir - the largest artificial lake of the Iberian Peninsula). Here the SWAT2012 model was applied to the catchment of Monte Novo and Vigia. The Monte Novo and Vigia reservoirs were selected due to their importance for the district of Évora, respectively for urban water supply and irrigation. The catchment is a multipurpose reservoir system that covers an area of about 81473 ha and drains into the Alqueva reservoir (25.000 ha). The SWAT2012 model was run for 1973-2012. The calibration routines were conducted on a monthly basis using the SWATCUP. The calibration performance rating is expressed by: NSE 0.89, bR² 0.89, Pbias 7.29 (Vigia) and NSE 0.84, bR² 0.83, Pbias 6.29 (Monte Novo). Expected results are a generalized decrease of water availability in the basin, more intense under the scenario RCP 8.5. However the uncertainty related to the use of different climate change models show different outcomes, which may be considered for the strategies to be adopted. We will take advantage of SWAT's automatic calibration capacities to explore how multiple interpretations of present-day hydrological processes could lead to different outputs in future climate scenarios, and compare this uncertainty with other sources of uncertainty related with future scenarios or different outputs from climate models.

Climate Adaptation Capacity for Conventional Drinking Water Treatment Facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, A.; Goodrich, J.; Yang, J.

2013-12-01

Water supplies are vulnerable to a host of climate- and weather-related stressors such as droughts, intense storms/flooding, snowpack depletion, sea level changes, and consequences from fires, landslides, and excessive heat or cold. Surface water resources (lakes, reservoirs, rivers, and streams) are especially susceptible to weather-induced changes in water availability and quality. The risks to groundwater systems may also be significant. Typically, water treatment facilities are designed with an underlying assumption that water quality from a given source is relatively predictable based on historical data. However, increasing evidence of the lack of stationarity is raising questions about the validity of traditional design assumptions, particularly since the service life of many facilities can exceed fifty years. Given that there are over 150,000 public water systems in the US that deliver drinking water to over 300 million people every day, it is important to evaluate the capacity for adapting to the impacts of a changing climate. Climate and weather can induce or amplify changes in physical, chemical, and biological water quality, reaction rates, the extent of water-sediment-air interactions, and also impact the performance of treatment technologies. The specific impacts depend on the watershed characteristics and local hydrological and land-use factors. Water quality responses can be transient, such as erosion-induced increases in sediment and runoff. Longer-term impacts include changes in the frequency and intensity of algal blooms, gradual changes in the nature and concentration of dissolved organic matter, dissolved solids, and modulation of the microbiological community structure, sources and survival of pathogens. In addition, waterborne contaminants associated with municipal, industrial, and agricultural activities can also impact water quality. This presentation evaluates relationships between climate and weather induced water quality variability and the capacity of treatment facilities and supporting water infrastructure to deliver safe drinking water consistently and reliably. Simulation models of water treatment facilities are used to evaluate the outcome of specific source water quality scenarios on treatment system performance and reliability. Modeling results are used to evaluate the process and operational capacity to respond to transient water quality changes and adapt to longer-term variability in water quality and availability. In some cases, changes in temperature and mineral content serve to improve the overall treatment performance. In addition, the integration of microbially enhanced treatment systems such as biological filtration can provide additional capacity. Conversely, changes in the nutrient and temperature dynamics can trigger algal and cyanobacterial blooms that can impair performance. Research needs are identified and the importance of developing more integrated modeling systems is highlighted.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Water-Energy Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, W.; Jacobs, J. M.

2014-12-01

Water-energy nexus refers to the fact that a lot of energy is used for treating and delivering water, and a large amount of water is needed for energy production. This interrelation reinforces water and energy consumptions and challenges the sustainable management of both resources in light of growing population, developing economy, and dwindling resources. Climate change often exacerbates the negative effects of the water-energy nexus by intervening water and energy allocation, availability, and quality, forcing communities to seek more energy dependent alternative water sources and/or more water dependent alternative energy sources. The climate-water-energy interrelations play an important role in water and energy management, yet our understandings on the interactions between climate and the water-energy nexus are still very limited. Therefore, this study aims at qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the impacts of climate change from the water-energy nexus perspective by investigating previous literatures, case studies, climate change patterns, and recent extreme climate events. Management difficulties resulted from climate related source shifts as well as policy and regulation changes will be illustrated and discussed. Research needs and gaps on the climate-water-energy interrelations will be addressed.

The Indus basin in the framework of current and future water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laghari, A. N.; Vanham, D.; Rauch, W.

2012-04-01

The Indus basin is one of the regions in the world that is faced with major challenges for its water sector, due to population growth, rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, environmental degradation, unregulated utilization of the resources, inefficient water use and poverty, all aggravated by climate change. The Indus Basin is shared by 4 countries - Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and China. With a current population of 237 million people which is projected to increase to 319 million in 2025 and 383 million in 2050, already today water resources are abstracted almost entirely (more than 95% for irrigation). Climate change will result in increased water availability in the short term. However in the long term water availability will decrease. Some current aspects in the basin need to be re-evaluated. During the past decades water abstractions - and especially groundwater extractions - have augmented continuously to support a rice-wheat system where rice is grown during the kharif (wet, summer) season (as well as sugar cane, cotton, maize and other crops) and wheat during the rabi (dry, winter) season. However, the sustainability of this system in its current form is questionable. Additional water for domestic and industrial purposes is required for the future and should be made available by a reduction in irrigation requirements. This paper gives a comprehensive listing and description of available options for current and future sustainable water resources management (WRM) within the basin. Sustainable WRM practices include both water supply management and water demand management options. Water supply management options include: (1) reservoir management as the basin is characterised by a strong seasonal behaviour in water availability (monsoon and meltwater) and water demands; (2) water quality conservation and investment in wastewater infrastructure; (3) the use of alternative water resources like the recycling of wastewater and desalination; (4) land use planning and soil conservation as well as flood management, with a focus on the reduction of erosion and resulting sedimentation as well as the restoration of ecosystem services like wetlands and natural floodplains. Water demand management options include: (1) the management of conjunctive use of surface and groundwater; as well as (2) the rehabilitation and modernization of existing infrastructure. Other demand management options are: (3) the increase of water productivity for agriculture; (4) crop planning and diversification including the critical assessment of agricultural export, especially (basmati) rice; (5) economic instruments and (6) changing food demand patterns and limiting post-harvest losses.

America's Water in the 20th Century: Measures to address climate induced risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

This work develops an understanding of water risk for USA considering linkages between water supply and competing demands. It explores how climate variability and changing water demands manifest as water deficits and how public-private management decisions determine regional water availability and drought resilience. We develop insights on regional water risks, infrastructure investments, sectoral allocation and policy modifications for America's future water sustainability. In this talk, I will focus on demonstrating how the variations in climate over the last century influenced changes in water use across the continent USA. A peak into our interactive modeling environment for future evolution of water use and supply will also be provided.

Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaninelli, Pablo G.; Menéndez, Claudio G.; Falco, Magdalena; López-Franca, Noelia; Carril, Andrea F.

2018-05-01

Changes between two time slices (1961-1990 and 2071-2100) in hydroclimatological conditions for South America have been examined using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual mean precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (EP) are jointly considered through the balances of land water and energy. Drying or wetting conditions, associated with changes in land water availability and atmospheric demand, are analysed in the Budyko space. The water supply limit (E limited by P) is exceeded at about 2% of the grid points, while the energy limit to evapotranspiration (E = EP) is overall valid. Most of the continent, except for the southeast and some coastal areas, presents a shift toward drier conditions related to a decrease in water availability (the evaporation rate E/P increases) and, mostly over much of Brazil, to an increase in the aridity index (V = EP/P). These changes suggest less humid conditions with decreasing surface runoff over Amazonia and the Brazilian Highlands. In contrast, Argentina and the coasts of Ecuador and Peru are characterized by a tendency toward wetter conditions associated with an increase of water availability and a decrease of aridity index, primarily due to P increasing faster than both E and EP. This trend towards wetter soil conditions suggest that the chances of having larger periods of flooding and enhanced river discharges would increase over parts of southeastern South America. Interannual variability increases with V (for a given time slice) and with climate change (for a given aridity regimen). There are opposite interannual variability responses to the cliamte change in Argentina and Brazil by which the variability increases over the Brazilian Highlands and decreases in central-eastern Argentina.

Relationships between vegetation dynamics and hydroclimatic drivers in the northern high-latitude uplands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Tetzlaff, D.; Buttle, J. M.; Carey, S. K.; Laudon, H.; McNamara, J. P.; Soulsby, C.; Spence, C.

2015-12-01

IPCC projections show that climate warming will be particularly high in northern high-latitude regions, which has profound ecohydrological implications: a small rise of temperature may result in lower water availability in summer due to less rainfall and more evapotranspiration, increase flooding risks by accelerating melting rates in spring, and more rain rather than snow in winter, etc. These impacts will affect vegetation communities by altering timing of the spring "green-up" and fall "senescence". Change in vegetation water use will feedback to atmospheric and hydrological cycles. Here, we report results from the PLATO "Plant-water interlinkages in northern uplands - mediation of climate change?" project where we investigate water uptake by plants and consequent water availability in northern regions along a cross-regional climate gradient to understand future responses to change in high-latitude uplands. Six sites in Sweden (Krycklan), Canada (Wolf Creek; Baker Creek; Dorset), Scotland (Girnock) and the USA (Dry Creek) span moisture and energy gradients found at high-latitudes. We are presenting preliminary results of vegetation phenology changes from 2000 to 2014 by analysing remote sensing vegetation indices. The relationship between vegetation phenology and climatic drivers (temperature and precipitation) is also investigated.

The limit of irrigation adaption due to the inter-crop conflict of water use under changing climate and landuse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Sakamoto, T.; Kotoku, M.; Sakurai, G.; Nishimori, M.

2017-12-01

Replacing rainfed cropping system by irrigated one is assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation in agriculture. However, in many agricultural impact assessments, future irrigation scenarios are externally given and do not consider variations in the availability of irrigation water under changing climate and land use. Therefore, we assess the potential effects of adaption measure expanding irrigated area under climate change by using a large-scale crop-river coupled model, CROVER [Okada et al. 2015, JAMES]. The CROVER model simulates the large-scale terrestrial hydrological cycle and crop growth depending on climate, soil properties, landuse, crop cultivation management, socio-economic water demand, and reservoir operation management. The bias-corrected GCMs outputs under the RCP 8.5 scenario were used. The future expansion of irrigation area was estimated by using the extrapolation method based on the historical change in irrigated and rainfed areas. As the results, the irrigation adaptation has only a limited effect on the rice production in East Asia due to the conflict of water use for irrigation with the other crops, whose farmlands require unsustainable water extraction with the excessively expanding irrigated area. In contrast, the irrigation adaptation benefits maize production in Europe due to the little conflict of water use for irrigation. Our findings suggest the importance of simulating the river water availability and crop production in a single model for the more realistic assessment in the irrigation adaptation potential effects of crop production under changing climate and land use.

Water, plants, and early human habitats in eastern Africa

PubMed Central

Magill, Clayton R.; Ashley, Gail M.; Freeman, Katherine H.

2013-01-01

Water and its influence on plants likely exerted strong adaptive pressures in human evolution. Understanding relationships among water, plants, and early humans is limited both by incomplete terrestrial records of environmental change and by indirect proxy data for water availability. Here we present a continuous record of stable hydrogen-isotope compositions (expressed as δD values) for lipid biomarkers preserved in lake sediments from an early Pleistocene archaeological site in eastern Africa—Olduvai Gorge. We convert sedimentary leaf- and algal-lipid δD values into estimates for ancient source-water δD values by accounting for biochemical, physiological, and environmental influences on isotopic fractionation via published water–lipid enrichment factors for living plants, algae, and recent sediments. Reconstructed precipitation and lake-water δD values, respectively, are consistent with modern isotopic hydrology and reveal that dramatic fluctuations in water availability accompanied ecosystem changes. Drier conditions, indicated by less negative δD values, occur in association with stable carbon-isotopic evidence for open, C4-dominated grassland ecosystems. Wetter conditions, indicated by lower δD values, are associated with expanded woody cover across the ancient landscape. Estimates for ancient precipitation amounts, based on reconstructed precipitation δD values, range between approximately 250 and 700 mm·y−1 and are consistent with modern precipitation data for eastern Africa. We conclude that freshwater availability exerted a substantial influence on eastern African ecosystems and, by extension, was central to early human proliferation during periods of rapid climate change. PMID:23267102

State Water Resource Competition and the Resulting Consequences of Diminished Water Supply

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

world . Because this realization is becoming more and more prevalent, the human survival instinct is prompting competition and conflict over water...the main contributing factors in creating a more interdependent world when it comes to freshwater. Freshwater availability has diminished over time...climate change, appears to be changing the landscape of our world for the worse. Along with a new landscape comes new demand for resource

Parameterizing a Large-scale Water Balance Model in Regions with Sparse Data: The Tigris-Euphrates River Basins as an Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, A. L.; Flint, L. E.

2010-12-01

The characterization of hydrologic response to current and future climates is of increasing importance to many countries around the world that rely heavily on changing and uncertain water supplies. Large-scale models that can calculate a spatially distributed water balance and elucidate groundwater recharge and surface water flows for large river basins provide a basis of estimates of changes due to future climate projections. Unfortunately many regions in the world have very sparse data for parameterization or calibration of hydrologic models. For this study, the Tigris and Euphrates River basins were used for the development of a regional water balance model at 180-m spatial scale, using the Basin Characterization Model, to estimate historical changes in groundwater recharge and surface water flows in the countries of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Necessary input parameters include precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil properties and thickness, and estimates of bulk permeability from geologic units. Data necessary for calibration includes snow cover, reservoir volumes (from satellite data and historic, pre-reservoir elevation data) and streamflow measurements. Global datasets for precipitation, air temperature, and PET were available at very large spatial scales (50 km) through the world scale databases, finer scale WorldClim climate data, and required downscaling to fine scales for model input. Soils data were available through world scale soil maps but required parameterization on the basis of textural data to estimate soil hydrologic properties. Soil depth was interpreted from geomorphologic interpretation and maps of quaternary deposits, and geologic materials were categorized from generalized geologic maps of each country. Estimates of bedrock permeability were made on the basis of literature and data on driller’s logs and adjusted during calibration of the model to streamflow measurements where available. Results of historical water balance calculations throughout the Tigris and Euphrates River basins will be shown along with details of processing input data to provide spatial continuity and downscaling. Basic water availability analysis for recharge and runoff is readily available from a determinisitic solar radiation energy balance model and a global potential evapotranspiration model and global estimates of precipitation and air temperature. Future climate estimates can be readily applied to the same water and energy balance models to evaluate future water availability for countries around the globe.

Climate change impacts analysis on hydrological processes in the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-12-01

The study aims to examine the variation of hydrological processes (in terms of mean annual, seasonal, and monthly) under changing climate within the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia at both basin and sub-basin level using ArcSWAT hydrologic model. The climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation characteristics within the basin have been studied using GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2, and GFDL-ESM2G models for RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 scenarios from coupled model inter-comparison project 5 (CMIP5) which have been downscaled by SDSM. The results revealed that the mean annual temperature and precipitation reveal a statistically significant (at 5% significant level) increasing trend in the nine ESM-RCP scenarios for all the future time slices. The mean annual actual evapotranspiration, baseflow, soil water content, percolation, and water availability in the stream exhibit a rise for all the ESMs-RCP scenarios in the entire basin and in all the sub-basins. However, surface runoff and potential evapotranspiration show a decreasing trend. The mean annual water availability increases between 9.18 and 27.97% (RCP8.5), 3.98 and 19.61% (RCP4.5), and 11.82 and 17.06% (RCP2.6) in the entire basin. The sub-basin level analysis reveals that the annual, seasonal, and monthly variations of hydrological processes in all the sub-basins are similar regarding direction but different in magnitude as compared to that of the entire basin analysis. In addition, it is observed that there is a larger monthly and seasonal variation in hydrological processes as compared to the variation in annual scale. The net water availability tends to decline in the dry season; this might cause water shortage in the lowland region and greater increases in an intermediate and rainy seasons; this might cause flooding to some flood prone region of the basin. Since the variation of water availability among the sub-basins in upcoming period is high, there is a scope of meeting agriculture water demand through water transfer from sub-basin having more available water in small area to the sub-basin having less available water in a larger agricultural area.

Water Resources by 2100 in Mountains with Declining Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beniston, M.

2015-12-01

Future shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, and changes in the behavior of snow and ice - and possibly the quasi-disappearance of glaciers - in many mountain regions will change the quantity, seasonality, and possibly also the quality of water originating in mountains and uplands. As a result, changing water availability will affect both upland and populated lowland areas. Economic sectors such as agriculture, tourism or hydropower may enter into rivalries if water is no longer available in sufficient quantities or at the right time of the year. The challenge is thus to estimate as accurately as possible future changes in order to prepare the way for appropriate adaptation strategies and improved water governance. The European ACQWA project, coordinated by the author, aimed to assess the vulnerability of water resources in mountain regions such as the European Alps, the Central Chilean Andes, and the mountains of Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) where declining snow and ice are likely to strongly affect hydrological regimes in a warmer climate. Based on RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations, a suite of cryosphere, biosphere and economic models were then used to quantify the environmental, economic and social impacts of changing water resources in order to assess how robust current water governance strategies are and what adaptations may be needed to alleviate the most negative impacts of climate change on water resources and water use. Hydrological systems will respond in quantity and seasonality to changing precipitation patterns and to the timing of snow-melt in the studied mountain regions, with a greater risk of flooding during the spring and droughts in summer and fall. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, agriculture and the insurance industry that will be confronted to more frequent natural disasters. The results from the ACQWA project suggest that there is a need for a more integrated and comprehensive approach to water use and management. In particular, beyond the conventional water basin management perspective, there is a need to consider other socio-economic factors and the manner in which water policies interact with, or are affected by, other policies at the local, national, and supra-national levels.

Change in Dense Shelf Water and Adélie Land Bottom Water Precipitated by Iceberg Calving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Rintoul, S. R.; Sloyan, B. M.; Hogg, A. McC.

2018-03-01

Antarctic Bottom Water supplies the deep limb of the global overturning circulation and ventilates the abyssal ocean. Antarctic Bottom Water has warmed, freshened, and contracted in recent decades, but the causes remain poorly understood. We use unique multiyear observations from the continental shelf and deep ocean near the Mertz Polynya to examine the sensitivity of this bottom water formation region to changes on the continental shelf, including the calving of a large iceberg. Postcalving, the seasonal cycle of Dense Shelf Water (DSW) density almost halved in amplitude and the volume of DSW available for export reduced. In the deep ocean, the density and volume of Adélie Land Bottom Water decreased sharply after calving, while oxygen concentrations remained high, indicating continued ventilation by DSW. This natural experiment illustrates how local changes in forcing over the Antarctic continental shelf can drive large and rapid changes in the abyssal ocean.

Bidirectional Anticipation of Future Osmotic Challenges by Vasopressin Neurons.

PubMed

Mandelblat-Cerf, Yael; Kim, Angela; Burgess, Christian R; Subramanian, Siva; Tannous, Bakhos A; Lowell, Bradford B; Andermann, Mark L

2017-01-04

Ingestion of water and food are major hypo- and hyperosmotic challenges. To protect the body from osmotic stress, posterior pituitary-projecting, vasopressin-secreting neurons (VP pp neurons) counter osmotic perturbations by altering their release of vasopressin, which controls renal water excretion. Vasopressin levels begin to fall within minutes of water consumption, even prior to changes in blood osmolality. To ascertain the precise temporal dynamics by which water or food ingestion affect VP pp neuron activity, we directly recorded the spiking and calcium activity of genetically defined VP pp neurons. In states of elevated osmolality, water availability rapidly decreased VP pp neuron activity within seconds, beginning prior to water ingestion, upon presentation of water-predicting cues. In contrast, food availability following food restriction rapidly increased VP pp neuron activity within seconds, but only following feeding onset. These rapid and distinct changes in activity during drinking and feeding suggest diverse neural mechanisms underlying anticipatory regulation of VP pp neurons. Published by Elsevier Inc.

How well are the climate indices related to the GRACE-observed total water storage changes in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devaraju, B.; Vishwakarma, B.; Sneeuw, N. J.

2017-12-01

The fresh water availability over land masses is changing rapidly under the influence of climate change and human intervention. In order to manage our water resources and plan for a better future, we need to demarcate the role of climate change. The total water storage change in a region can be obtained from the GRACE satellite mission. On the other hand, many climate change indicators, for example ENSO, are derived from sea surface temperature. In this contribution we investigate the relationship between the total water storage change over China with the climate indices using statistical time-series decomposition techniques, such as Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). The anomalies in climate variables, such as sea surface temperature, are responsible for anomalous precipitation and thus an anomalous total water storage change over land. Therefore, it is imperative that we use a GRACE product that can capture anomalous water storage changes with unprecedented accuracy. Since filtering decreases the sensitivity of GRACE products substantially, we use the data-driven method of deviation for recovering the signal lost due to filtering. To this end, we are able to obtain the spatial fingerprint of individual climate index on total water storage change observed over China.

Water security-National and global issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tindall, James A.; Campbell, Andrew A.

2010-01-01

Potable or clean freshwater availability is crucial to life and economic, environmental, and social systems. The amount of freshwater is finite and makes up approximately 2.5 percent of all water on the Earth. Freshwater supplies are small and randomly distributed, so water resources can become points of conflict. Freshwater availability depends upon precipitation patterns, changing climate, and whether the source of consumed water comes directly from desalination, precipitation, or surface and (or) groundwater. At local to national levels, difficulties in securing potable water sources increase with growing populations and economies. Available water improves living standards and drives urbanization, which increases average water consumption per capita. Commonly, disruptions in sustainable supplies and distribution of potable water and conflicts over water resources become major security issues for Government officials. Disruptions are often influenced by land use, human population, use patterns, technological advances, environmental impacts, management processes and decisions, transnational boundaries, and so forth.

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

2017-01-01

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Lake-level variability and water availability in the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilcox, Douglas A.; Thompson, Todd A.; Booth, Robert K.; Nicholas, J.R.

2007-01-01

In this report, we present recorded and reconstructed (pre-historical) changes in water levels in the Great Lakes, relate them to climate changes of the past, and highlight major water-availability implications for storage, coastal ecosystems, and human activities. 'Water availability,' as conceptualized herein, includes a recognition that water must be available for human and natural uses, but the balancing of how much should be set aside for which use is not discussed. The Great Lakes Basin covers a large area of North America. The lakes capture and store great volumes of water that are critical in maintaining human activities and natural ecosystems. Water enters the lakes mostly in the form of precipitation and streamflow. Although flow through the connecting channels is a primary output from the lakes, evaporation is also a major output. Water levels in the lakes vary naturally on timescales that range from hours to millennia; storage of water in the lakes changes at the seasonal to millennial scales in response to lake-level changes. Short-term changes result from storm surges and seiches and do not affect storage. Seasonal changes are driven by differences in net basin supply during the year related to snowmelt, precipitation, and evaporation. Annual to millennial changes are driven by subtle to major climatic changes affecting both precipitation (and resulting streamflow) and evaporation. Rebounding of the Earth's surface in response to loss of the weight of melted glaciers has differentially affected water levels. Rebound rates have not been uniform across the basin, causing the hydrologic outlet of each lake to rise in elevation more rapidly than some parts of the coastlines. The result is a long-term change in lake level with respect to shoreline features that differs from site to site. The reconstructed water-level history of Lake Michigan-Huron over the past 4,700 years shows three major high phases from 2,300 to 3,300, 1,100 to 2,000, and 0 to 800 years ago. Within that record is a quasi-periodic rise and fall of about 160 ? 40 years in duration and a shorter fluctuation of 32 ? 6 years that is superimposed on the 160-year fluctuation. Recorded lake-level history from 1860 to the present falls within the longer-term pattern and appears to be a single 160-year quasi-periodic fluctuation. Independent investigations of past climate change in the basin over the long-term period of record confirm that most of these changes in lake level were responses to climatically driven changes in water balance, including lake-level highstands commonly associated with cooler climatic conditions and lows with warm climate periods. The mechanisms underlying these large hydroclimatic anomalies are not clear, but they may be related to internal dynamics of the ocean-atmosphere system or dynamical responses of the ocean-atmosphere system to variability in solar radiation or volcanic activity. The large capacities of the Great Lakes allow them to store great volumes of water. As calculated at chart datum, Lake Superior stores more water (2,900 mi3) than all the other lakes combined (2,539 mi3). Lake Michigan's storage is 1,180 mi3; Lake Huron's, 850 mi3; Lake Ontario's, 393 mi3; and Lake Erie's, 116 mi3. Seasonal lake-level changes alter storage by as much as 6 mi3 in Lake Superior and as little as 2.1 mi3 in Lake Erie. The extreme high and low lake levels measured in recorded lake-level history have altered storage by as much as 31 mi3 in Lake Michigan-Huron and as little as 9 mi3 in Lake Ontario. Diversions of water into and out of the lakes are very small compared to the total volume of water stored in the lakes. The water level of Lake Superior has been regulated since about 1914 and levels of Lake Ontario since about 1960. The range of Lake Superior water-level fluctuations and storage has not been altered greatly by regulation. However, fluctuations on Lake Ontario have been reduced from 6.6 ft preregulation

Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2005-05-01

Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From the estimation of present stress level (withdrawal to resource ratio), the months between January to May was found to have the highest number of population above water stress level, while the months between June to August having lower population in stress. The regions suffering from high seasonal variability are those of Asian monsoon zone, south-central Africa and central-east part of South America. Inter-annual variability, on the other hand, is dominant mostly along the Middle-east or Sahara regions and the western part of South America and Latin America. Virtual water trading among countries was estimated on per capita basis. It shows that many Middle east countries are able to compensate their water stress significantly through virtual water trading. The overall effect of climate change on lowering of river runoff mostly affected Europe, southern part of China and Latin America. India or Central Africa have better runoff availability under changing climate, but still subject to a higher water stress because of socio-economic factors like high population growth and expected increase in rate of water uses. Decrease in population as well as saturation level of maximum water uses along most European countries, on the contrary, relaxed the pressure of lowering river runoff, causing no significant change in future stress.

Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, N.; Kintner-Meyer, M.; Skaggs, R.

Recent studies have highlighted the potential impact of climate change on US electricity generation capacity by exploring the effect of changes in stream temperatures on available capacity of thermo-electric plants that rely on fresh-water cooling. However, little is known about the electric system impacts under extreme climate event such as drought. Vulnerability assessments are usually performed for a baseline water year or a specific drought, which do not provide insights into the full grid stress distribution across the diversity of climate events. In this paper we estimate the impacts of the water availability on the electricity generation and transmission inmore » the Western US grid for a range of historical water availability combinations. We softly couple an integrated water model, which includes climate, hydrology, routing, water resources management and socio-economic water demand models, into a grid model (production cost model) and simulate 30 years of historical hourly power flow conditions in the Western US grid. The experiment allows estimating the grid stress distribution as a function of inter-annual variability in regional water availability. Results indicate a clear correlation between grid vulnerability (as quantified in unmet energy demand and increased production cost) for the summer month of August and annual water availability. There is a 3% chance that at least 6% of the electricity demand cannot be met in August, and 21% chance of not meeting 0.5% of the load in the Western US grid. There is a 3% chance that at least 6% of the electricity demand cannot be met in August, and 21% chance of not meeting 0.1% or more of the load in the Western US grid. The regional variability in water availability contributes significantly to the reliability of the grid and could provide trade off opportunities in times of stress. This paper is the first to explore operational grid impacts imposed by droughts in the Western U.S. grid.« less

Assessing Water Level Changes in Lake, Reservoir, Wetland, and River Systems with Remote Sensing Tools and Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Beckley, B. D.

2017-12-01

The NASA/USDA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (G-REALM) offers multi-mission satellite radar altimetry derived surface water level products for a subset of large reservoirs, lakes, and wetlands. These products complement the in situ networks by providing stage information at un-gauged locations, and filling existing data gaps. The availability of both satellite-based rainfall (e.g., TRMM, GPCP) and surface water level products offers great opportunities to estimate and monitor additional hydrologic properties of the lake/reservoir systems. A simple water balance model relating the net freshwater flux over a catchment basin to the lake/reservoir level has been previously utilized (Ricko et al., 2011). The applicability of this approach enables the construction of a longer record of surface water level, i.e. improving the climate data record. As instrument technology and data availability evolve, this method can be used to estimate the water level of a greater number of water bodies, and a greater number of much smaller targets. In addition, such information can improve water balance estimation in different lake, reservoir, wetland, and river systems, and be very useful for assessment of improved prediction of surface water availability. Connections to climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales are explored here, with a focus on a future ability to predict changes in storage volume for water resources or natural hazards concerns.

77 FR 75429 - Notice of Availability of Proposed National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-20

... produced water. These changes are discussed in more detail below, and in the fact sheet accompanying the... part, the proposed permit is very similar to the 2004 permit. The major changes from the 2004 permit... limits and monitoring requirements for produced water based on an updated reasonable potential analysis...

Adaptation of a Weighted Regression Approach to Evaluate Water Quality Trends in Tampa Bay, Florida

EPA Science Inventory

The increasing availability of long-term monitoring data can improve resolution of temporal and spatial changes in water quality. In many cases, the fact that changes have occurred is no longer a matter of debate. However, the relatively simple methods that have been used to ev...

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strat...

Water governance: learning by developing adaptive capacity to incorporate climate variability and change.

PubMed

Kashyap, A

2004-01-01

There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities.

Country-level assessment of future risk of water scarcity in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, Luis; Iglesias, Ana; Granados, Alfredo

2018-06-01

A methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The risk of water scarcity is the combined result of hydrological processes, which determine streamflow in natural conditions, and human intervention, which determines water management using the available hydraulic infrastructure and establishes water supply conditions through operating rules. Model results show that changes in runoff and availability obtained for individual GCM projections can be large and even contradictory. These heterogeneous results are summarized in the water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios. The countries at larger risk are (in this order) Spain, Portugal, Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, France and Italy. They are mostly Mediterranean countries already exposed to significant water scarcity problems. There are countries, like Slovakia, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Croatia and Romania, with mild risk. Northern Arctic countries, like Sweden, Finland, Norway and Russia, show a robust however mild increase in water availability.

Assessing the impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes on flow and phosphorus flux in the Ganga river system.

PubMed

Jin, L; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Sinha, R; Futter, M N; Butterfield, D; Caesar, J; Crossman, J

2015-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change has impacted and will continue to impact the natural environment and people around the world. Increasing temperatures and altered rainfall patterns combined with socio-economic factors such as population changes, land use changes and water transfers will affect flows and nutrient fluxes in river systems. The Ganga river, one of the largest river systems in the world, supports approximately 10% global population and more than 700 cities. Changes in the Ganga river system are likely to have a significant impact on water availability, water quality, aquatic habitats and people. In order to investigate these potential changes on the flow and water quality of the Ganga river, a multi-branch version of INCA Phosphorus (INCA-P) model has been applied to the entire river system. The model is used to quantify the impacts from a changing climate, population growth, additional agricultural land, pollution control and water transfers for 2041-2060 and 2080-2099. The results provide valuable information about potential effects of different management strategies on catchment water quality.

The moving confluence route technology with WAD scheme for 3D hydrodynamic simulation in high altitude inland waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yonggui; Yang, Yinqun; Chen, Xiaolong; Engel, Bernard A.; Zhang, Wanshun

2018-04-01

For three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations in inland waters, the rapid changes with moving boundary and various input conditions should be considered. Some models are developed with moving boundary but the dynamic change of discharges is unresolved or ignored. For better hydrodynamic simulation in inland waters, the widely used 3D model, ECOMSED, has been improved by moving confluence route (MCR) method with a wetting and drying scheme (WAD). The fixed locations of water and pollutants inputs from tributaries, point sources and non-point sources have been changed to dynamic confluence routes as the boundary moving. The improved model was applied in an inland water area, Qingshuihai reservoir, Kunming City, China, for a one-year hydrodynamic simulation. The results were verified by water level, flow velocity and water mass conservation. Detailed water level variation analysis and velocity field comparison at different times showed that the improved model has better performance for simulating the boundary moving phenomenon and moving discharges along with water level changing than the original one. The improved three-dimensional model is available for hydrodynamics simulation in water bodies where water boundary shifts along with change of water level and have various inlets.

Water Resilience by Design: A water infrastructure planning framework for developing sustainable water management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Ray, P. A.; Freeman, S.

2016-12-01

Societal need for improved water management and concerns for the long-term sustainability of water resources systems are prominent around the world. The continued susceptibility of society to the harmful effects of hydrologic variability, pervasive concerns related to climate change and the emergent awareness of devastating effects of current practice on aquatic ecosystems all illustrate our limited understanding of how water ought to be managed in a dynamic world. To address these challenges, new problem solving approaches are required that acknowledge uncertainties, incorporate best available information, and link engineering design principles, typically based on determinism, with our best geoscience-based understanding of planetary change. In this presentation, we present and demonstrate a framework for developing water planning and management strategies that are resilient in the face of future uncertainties and our limited ability to anticipate the future. The approach begins with stakeholder engagement and decision framing to elicit relevant context, uncertainties, choices and connections that drive planning and serve as an entry point to exploring possible futures. The result is the development of water strategies that are informed by the best available predictive information and designed to perform well over a future of change. Examples from around the world are presented to illustrate the methodology.

Molecular assessment of bacterial pathogens - a contribution to drinking water safety.

PubMed

Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred G

2008-06-01

Human bacterial pathogens are considered as an increasing threat to drinking water supplies worldwide because of the growing demand of high-quality drinking water and the decreasing quality and quantity of available raw water. Moreover, a negative impact of climate change on freshwater resources is expected. Recent advances in molecular detection technologies for bacterial pathogens in drinking water bear the promise in improving the safety of drinking water supplies by precise detection and identification of the pathogens. More importantly, the array of molecular approaches allows understanding details of infection routes of waterborne diseases, the effects of changes in drinking water treatment, and management of freshwater resources.

Incorporating agricultural management into an earth system model for the Pacific Northwest region: Interactions between climate, hydrology, agriculture, and economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.; Brady, M.; Rajagopalan, K.; Barber, M. E.; Dinesh, S.; Malek, K.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.; Marsh, T.; Yoder, J.

2011-12-01

For better management and decision making in the face of climate change, earth system models must explicitly account for natural resource and agricultural management activities. Including crop system, water management, and economic models into an earth system modeling framework can help in answering questions related to the impacts of climate change on irrigation water and crop productivity, how agricultural producers can adapt to anticipated climate change, and how agricultural practices can mitigate climate change. Herein we describe the coupling of the Variability Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, which solves the water and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle at regional scales, with a crop-growth model, CropSyst. This new model, VIC-CropSyst, is the land surface model that will be used in a new regional-scale model development project focused on the Pacific Northwest, termed BioEarth. Here we describe the VIC-CropSyst coupling process and its application over the Columbia River basin (CRB) using agricultural-specific land cover information. The Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA) and U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cropland data layers were used to identify agricultural land use patterns, in which both irrigated and dry land crops were simulated. The VIC-CropSyst model was applied over the CRB for the historical period of 1976 - 2006 to establish a baseline for surface water availability, irrigation demand, and crop production. The model was then applied under future (2030s) climate change scenarios derived from statistically-downscaled Global Circulation Models output under two emission scenarios (A1B and B1). Differences between simulated future and historical irrigation demand, irrigation water availability, and crop production were used in an economics model to identify the most economically-viable future cropping pattern. The economics model was run under varying scenarios of regional growth, trade, water pricing, and water capacity providing a spectrum of possible future cropping patterns. The resulting cropping patterns were then used in VIC-CropSyst to quantify the impacts of climate change, economic, and water management scenarios on crop production, and water resources availability. This modeling framework provides opportunities to study the interactions between human activities and complex natural processes and is a valuable tool for inclusion in an earth system model with the goal of informing land use and water management.

A model for evaluating effects of climate, water availability, and water management on wetland impoundments--a case study on Bowdoin, Long Lake, and Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangen, Brian A.; Gleason, Robert A.; Stamm, John F.

2013-01-01

Many wetland impoundments managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System throughout the northern Great Plains rely on rivers as a primary water source. A large number of these impoundments currently are being stressed from changes in water supplies and quality, and these problems are forecast to worsen because of projected changes to climate and land use. For example, many managed wetlands in arid regions have become degraded owing to the long-term accumulation of salts and increased salinity associated with evapotranspiration. A primary goal of the USFWS is to provide aquatic habitats for a diversity of waterbirds; thus, wetland managers would benefit from a tool that facilitates evaluation of wetland habitat quality in response to current and anticipated impacts of altered hydrology and salt balances caused by factors such as climate change, water availability, and management actions. A spreadsheet model that simulates the overall water and salinity balance (WSB model) of managed wetland impoundments is presented. The WSB model depicts various habitat metrics, such as water depth, salinity, and surface areas (inundated, dry), which can be used to evaluate alternative management actions under various water-availability and climate scenarios. The WSB model uses widely available spreadsheet software, is relatively simple to use, relies on widely available inputs, and is readily adaptable to specific locations. The WSB model was validated using data from three National Wildlife Refuges with direct and indirect connections to water resources associated with rivers, and common data limitations are highlighted. The WSB model also was used to conduct simulations based on hypothetical climate and management scenarios to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating alternative management strategies and climate futures. The WSB model worked well across a range of National Wildlife Refuges and could be a valuable tool for USFWS staff when evaluating system state and management alternatives and establishing long-term goals and objectives.

Scarcity of Fresh Water Resources in the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murshed, S. B.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

2017-12-01

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is a classical example of water insecurity in a transboundary river basin where limitations in quantity, quality and timing of available water is producing disastrous conditions. Two opposite extreme water conditions, i.e., fresh water scarcity and floods are common in this region during dry and wet seasons, respectively. The purpose of this study is to manage fresh water requirement of people and environment considering the seasonal availability of surface water (SW) and ground water (GW). SW availability was analyzed by incoming stream flow including the effects of upstream water diversion, rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration (ET). Flow duration curves (FDC), and rainfall and temperature elasticity are used to assess the change of incoming upstream flow. Groundwater data were collected from 285 piezometers and monitoring wells established by Bangladesh water development board. Variation of groundwater depth shows major withdrawals of GW are mostly concentrated in the north part of the study area. Irrigation is the largest sector of off-stream (irrigation, industrial and domestic) water use which occupies 82% SW and 17% GW of total water consumption. Although domestic water use is entirely depend on GW but arsenic pollution is limiting the GW use. FDC depicts a substantial difference between high flow threshold (20%) and low flow threshold (70%) in the Bangladesh part of Ganges River. A large variation of around 83% is observed for instream water volume between wet and dry seasons. The reduction of upstream fresh water flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. Presently GW is also contaminated by saline water. This fresh water scarcity is reducing the livelihood options considerably and indirectly forcing population migration from the delta region. This study provides insight to the changes in hydrology and limitations to freshwater availability enabling better formulation of water resources management in the region.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2018-03-01

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

Mapping of Temporal Surface-water Resources Availability and Agricultural Adaptability due to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity in a Hot Semi-arid Region of Maharashtra State, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, A.; Inamdar, A. B.

2016-12-01

Major part of Godavari River Basin is intensely drought prone and climate vulnerable in the Western Maharashtra State, India. The economy of the state depends on the agronomic productivity of this region. So, it is necessary to regulate the effects of existing and upcoming hydro-meteorological advances in various strata. This study investigates and maps the surface water resources availability and vegetation, their decadal deviations with multi-temporal LANDSAT images; and finally quantifies the agricultural adaptations. This work involves the utilization of Remote Sensing and GIS with Hydrological modeling. First, climatic trend analysis is carried out with NCEP dataset. Then, multi-temporal LANDSAT images are classified to determine the decadal LULC changes and correlated to the community level hydrological demand. Finally, NDVI, NDWI and SWAT model analysis are accomplished to determine irrigated and non-irrigated cropping area for identifying the agricultural adaptations. The analysis shows that the mean value of annual and monsoon rainfall is significantly decreasing, whereas the mean value of annual and summer temperature is increasing significantly and the winter temperature is decreasing. The analysis of LANDSAT images shows that the surface water availability is highly dependent on climatic conditions. Barren-lands are most dynamic during the study period followed by, vegetation, and water bodies. The spatial extent of barren-lands is increased drastically during the climate vulnerable years replacing the vegetation and surface water bodies. Hence, the barren lands are constantly increasing and the vegetation cover is linearly decreasing, whereas the water extent is changing either way in a random fashion. There appears a positive correlation between surface water and vegetation occurrence; as they are fluctuating in a similar fashion in all the years. The vegetation cover is densely replenished around the dams and natural water bodies which serve as the water supply stations for the irrigation purposes. Moreover, there is a shift to non-irrigated and less water demanding crops, from more water demanding crops, which is a conspicuous adaptation. Hence, the study shows there are alteration in meteorological predictors, land cover, agricultural practices and surface water availability.

An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

2014-12-01

Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture, urban, industrial) on a spatially distributed basis. The resulting combinations of climate scenarios and adaptation responses were subjected to a combined hydro-economic assessment based on the degree of water security together with its cost-effectiveness against the Business-as-usual scenario.

Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 3, Consequences of Prolonged Drought on Urban Water System Resilience: Case Study from Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

EPA Science Inventory

This course focuses on water system adaptation to short-term and long-term climate and hydrologic stressors that affect water availability, water quality, security, and resilience. The course is organized into 15 sequential modules. The lectures will be augmented by weekly assign...

Impacts of invading alien plant species on water flows at stand and catchment scales.

PubMed

Le Maitre, D C; Gush, M B; Dzikiti, S

2015-05-01

There have been many studies of the diverse impacts of invasions by alien plants but few have assessed impacts on water resources. We reviewed the information on the impacts of invasions on surface runoff and groundwater resources at stand to catchment scales and covering a full annual cycle. Most of the research is South African so the emphasis is on South Africa's major invaders with data from commercial forest plantations where relevant. Catchment studies worldwide have shown that changes in vegetation structure and the physiology of the dominant plant species result in changes in surface runoff and groundwater discharge, whether they involve native or alien plant species. Where there is little change in vegetation structure [e.g. leaf area (index), height, rooting depth and seasonality] the effects of invasions generally are small or undetectable. In South Africa, the most important woody invaders typically are taller and deeper rooted than the native species. The impacts of changes in evaporation (and thus runoff) in dryland settings are constrained by water availability to the plants and, thus, by rainfall. Where the dryland invaders are evergreen and the native vegetation (grass) is seasonal, the increases can reach 300-400 mm/year. Where the native vegetation is evergreen (shrublands) the increases are ∼200-300 mm/year. Where water availability is greater (riparian settings or shallow water tables), invading tree water-use can reach 1.5-2.0 times that of the same species in a dryland setting. So, riparian invasions have a much greater impact per unit area invaded than dryland invasions. The available data are scattered and incomplete, and there are many gaps and issues that must be addressed before a thorough understanding of the impacts at the site scale can be gained and used in extrapolating to watershed scales, and in converting changes in flows to water supply system yields. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Impacts of invading alien plant species on water flows at stand and catchment scales

PubMed Central

Le Maitre, D. C.; Gush, M. B.; Dzikiti, S.

2015-01-01

There have been many studies of the diverse impacts of invasions by alien plants but few have assessed impacts on water resources. We reviewed the information on the impacts of invasions on surface runoff and groundwater resources at stand to catchment scales and covering a full annual cycle. Most of the research is South African so the emphasis is on South Africa's major invaders with data from commercial forest plantations where relevant. Catchment studies worldwide have shown that changes in vegetation structure and the physiology of the dominant plant species result in changes in surface runoff and groundwater discharge, whether they involve native or alien plant species. Where there is little change in vegetation structure [e.g. leaf area (index), height, rooting depth and seasonality] the effects of invasions generally are small or undetectable. In South Africa, the most important woody invaders typically are taller and deeper rooted than the native species. The impacts of changes in evaporation (and thus runoff) in dryland settings are constrained by water availability to the plants and, thus, by rainfall. Where the dryland invaders are evergreen and the native vegetation (grass) is seasonal, the increases can reach 300–400 mm/year. Where the native vegetation is evergreen (shrublands) the increases are ∼200–300 mm/year. Where water availability is greater (riparian settings or shallow water tables), invading tree water-use can reach 1.5–2.0 times that of the same species in a dryland setting. So, riparian invasions have a much greater impact per unit area invaded than dryland invasions. The available data are scattered and incomplete, and there are many gaps and issues that must be addressed before a thorough understanding of the impacts at the site scale can be gained and used in extrapolating to watershed scales, and in converting changes in flows to water supply system yields. PMID:25935861

To what extent do they sway Australian water management decision making?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papas, Maureen

2016-10-01

At a time when the reliability of freshwater resources has become highly unpredictable, as a result of climate change and increased droughts frequency, the role of scientific evidence in forecasting the availability of seasonal water has become more critical. Australia is one of the driest inhabited continents. Its freshwater availability is highly variable, which poses unique problems for the management of the nation's water resources. Under Australia's federal system, water management challenges have been progressively dealt with through political institutions that rely on best available science to inform policy development. However, it could be argued that evidenced-based policy making is an impossible aim in a highly complex and uncertain political environment: that such a rational approach would be defeated by competing values and vested interests across stakeholders. This article demonstrates that, while science has a fundamental role to play in effective water resource management, the reality on the ground often diverges from the intended aim and does not always reflect efforts at reform. This article briefly reviews the Water Act 2007 (Cth) and comments on why policy makers need to manage rather than try to eliminate uncertainty to promote change.

Groundwater conditions in Utah, spring of 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.

2015-01-01

This is the fifty-second in a series of annual reports that describe groundwater conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing groundwater conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, groundwater withdrawals from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to new wells constructed for withdrawal of groundwater. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas that are important to a discussion of changing groundwater conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of groundwater development in the State for calendar year 2014. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is also available online at http://www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/GW2015.pdf. Groundwater conditions in Utah for calendar year 2013 are reported in Burden and others (2014) and are available online at http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/GW2014.pdf.The water-level change maps in this report show the difference between water levels measured in the same well at two distinct times: in the spring of 1985 and the spring of 2015. Throughout the state, many groundwater levels were near their peak in or around 1985 following a multiple-year period of above average precipitation in the early 1980s. Conversely, consecutive years of significant drought have contributed to low groundwater levels in 2015. For these reasons, the difference between 1985 and 2015 groundwater levels may not accurately portray long-term changes in an aquifer. An evaluation of water-level trends should also include consideration of the annual water-level measurement plots provided for each of the major areas of groundwater development in this report.

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2016-01-01

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

Groundwater conditions in Utah, spring of 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Allen, David V.; Cederberg, Jay R.; Fisher, Martel J.; Freeman, Michael L.; Downhour, Paul; Enright, Michael; Eacret, Robert J.; Guzman, Manuel; Slaugh, Bradley A.; Swenson, Robert L.; Howells, James H.; Christiansen, Howard K.

2010-01-01

This is the forty-seventh in a series of annual reports that describe groundwater conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing groundwater conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, groundwater withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of groundwater. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing groundwater conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of groundwater development in the State for calendar year 2009. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is also available online at http://www. waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs.gov/ publications/GW2010.pdf. Groundwater conditions in Utah for calendar year 2008 are reported in Burden and others (2009) and available online at http://ut.water.usgs.gov/publications/ GW2009.pdf.Analytical results associated with water samples collected from each area of groundwater development were compared to State of Utah maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) and secondary drinking-water standards of routinely measureable substances present in water supplies. The MCLs and secondary drinking-water standards can be accessed online at http://www.rules.utah.gov/publicat/code/r309/r309-200. htm#T5. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) drinking-water standards can be accessed at http://www.epa. gov/safewater/mcl.html#mcls. Maximum contaminant levels and secondary drinking-water standards were developed for public water systems and do not apply to the majority of wells sampled during this study.Every 5 years, this report series includes maps depicting comparisons of 30-year changes in water levels for each of the major areas of groundwater development. The water-level change maps in this report show the difference between water levels measured in 1980 and in 2010. Water-level rises or declines occurring on shorter time scales are shown in plots of annual water-level measurements for several wells in each of the major areas of groundwater development.

Changes in soil water availability in vineyards can be traced by the carbon and nitrogen isotope composition of dried wines.

PubMed

Spangenberg, Jorge E; Zufferey, Vivian

2018-04-13

The grapevine is one of the most important edible fruit plants cultivated worldwide, and it is highly sensitive to changes in the soil water content. We studied the total carbon and nitrogen contents and stable isotope compositions (C/N WSR , δ 13 C WSR and δ 15 N WSR values) of the solid residues obtained by freeze-drying wines produced from two white grapevine cultivars (Vitis vinifera L. cv Chasselas and Petite Arvine) field grown under different soil water regimes while maintaining other climatic and ecopedological conditions identical. These experiments simulated the more frequent and extended climate change-induced periods of soil water shortage. The wines were from the 2009-2014 vintages, produced using the same vinification procedure. The plant water status, reflecting soil water availability, was assessed by the predawn leaf water potential (Ψ pd ), monitored in the field during the growing seasons. For both wine varieties, the δ 13 C WSR values are highly correlated with Ψ pd values and record the soil water availability set by soil water holding capacity, rainfall and irrigation water supply. These relationships were the same as those observed for the carbon isotope composition of fruit sugars (i.e., must sugars) and plant water status. In Chasselas wines, the nitrogen content and δ 15 N WSR values decreased with soil water deficit, indicating control of the flux of soil-water soluble nutrients into plants by soil water availability. Such a correlation was not found for Petite Arvine, probably due to different N-metabolism processes in this genetically atypical cultivar. The results presented in this study confirm and generalize what was previously found for red wine (Pinot noir); the carbon isotope composition of wine solid residues is a reliable indicator of the soil and the plant water status and thus can be used to trace back local climatic conditions in the vineyard's region. In most wines (except Petite Arvine) the C/N WSR and δ 15 N WSR values are indicators of the origin of the nitrogen supplied to the plant's fruit (grape) that can be used to assess the N dynamics in the soil-water-plant system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing Portuguese Guadiana Basin water management impacts under climate change and paleoclimate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maia, Rodrigo; Oliveira, Bruno; Ramos, Vanessa; Brekke, Levi

2014-05-01

The water balance in each reservoir and the subsequent, related, water resource management decisions are, presently, highly information dependent and are therefore often limited to a reactive response (even if aimed towards preventing future issues regarding the water system). Taking advantage of the availability of scenarios for climate projections, it is now possible to estimate the likely future evolution of climate which represents an important stepping stone towards proactive, adaptative, water resource management. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential effects of climate change in terms of temperature, precipitation, runoff and water availability/scarcity for application in water resource management decisions. The analysis here presented was applied to the Portuguese portion of the Guadiana River Basin, using a combination of observed climate and runoff data and the results of the Global Climate Models. The Guadiana River Basin was represented by its reservoirs on the Portuguese portion of the basin and, for the future period, an estimated value of the inflows originating in the Spanish part of the Basin. The change in climate was determined in terms of relative and absolute variations of climate (precipitation and temperature) and hydrology (runoff and water balance related information). Apart from the previously referred data, an hydrological model and a water management model were applied so as to obtain an extended range of data regarding runoff generation (calibrated to observed data) and water balance in the reservoirs (considering the climate change impacts in the inflows, outflows and water consumption). The water management model was defined in order to represent the reservoirs interaction including upstream to downstream discharges and water transfers. Under the present climate change context, decision-makers and stakeholders are ever more vulnerable to the uncertainties of climate. Projected climate in the Guadiana basin indicates an increase in temperatures and a reduction of the precipitation values which go well beyond the observed values and, therefore, must be forcefully included in any realistic proactive water resource management decision. Using the results of this study it is possible to estimate future water availability and consumption satisfaction allowing for the elaboration of informed management decisions. In this study, the CMIP 3 Global Climate Models were considered for the definition of the effects of climate change, using the median and extreme tendencies based on the range of variation of the multiple climate projection scenarios. The observed climate variability, along with these model-derived tendencies, were used to inform the hydrology and water management models for the historical and future periods, respectively. Additionally, for a more comprehensive analysis on climate variability, a stochastic model was implemented based on the paleoclimate variability obtained from tree-ring records.

Water scarcity and economic damage in Europe: regionally relevant simulations from 2000 to 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad; Bisselink, Bernard; Gelati, Emiliano; Karssenberg, Derek; de Jong, Steven

2017-04-01

Water availability is unequally distributed across Europe. Where certain regions experience a surplus of water, other areas have limited water availability which causes economic damage to the water using sectors such as households, industries or agriculture. Future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions are expected to further increase the competition for available water that is already present in Europe. This means there is an increasing need for models that are able to simulate this multi-sectorial system of water availability and demand and incorporate the socio-economic component required for robust decisions and policy support. We present our modelling study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water scarcity and economic damage simulations. First we developed regionally relevant pan-European water demand simulations for the household and industry sector from 2000 up to 2050. For the household sector we developed a model to simulate water use based on water price, income and several other relevant variables at NUTS-3 level (over 1200 regions in Europe). Alternatively, we modelled industrial water use based on regionally downscaled water productivity values at the national level for ten sub-sections of the NACE (Nomenclature of Economic Activities) classification for economic activities. Subsequently we used scenario projections of our explanatory variables to make scenario simulations of water demand from 2000 up to 2050 at pan-European scale with unprecedented spatial and sub-sectorial detail. In order to analyze the European water use system we integrated these water demand scenarios into the hydrological rainfall-runoff model called LISFLOOD (Distributed Water Balance and Flood Simulation Model), which incorporates a vegetation module for the simulation of crop yield and irrigation water demand of the agriculture sector. We simulated river discharge and groundwater availability for abstractions of water using sectors across Europe from 2000 up to 2050 at 5km grid level for multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios. This allowed us to identify regions with water scarcity problems from the recent past up to 2050 and quantify the economic damage that can be attributed to the limited water availability. Results showed several regions where substantially more water is extracted from the system than what would be sustainable into the future. Furthermore, we analyzed how changing water prices or relocation of economic activities could reduce future water scarcity problems and decrease the related economical damage. We found that for some regions, relatively small measurers already could have a positive impact on water scarcity problems.

Short-term effect of nutrient availability and rainfall distribution on biomass production and leaf nutrient content of savanna tree species.

PubMed

Barbosa, Eduardo R M; Tomlinson, Kyle W; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Kirkman, Kevin; de Bie, Steven; Prins, Herbert H T; van Langevelde, Frank

2014-01-01

Changes in land use may lead to increased soil nutrient levels in many ecosystems (e.g. due to intensification of agricultural fertilizer use). Plant species differ widely in their response to differences in soil nutrients, and for savannas it is uncertain how this nutrient enrichment will affect plant community dynamics. We set up a large controlled short-term experiment in a semi-arid savanna to test how water supply (even water supply vs. natural rainfall) and nutrient availability (no fertilisation vs. fertilisation) affects seedlings' above-ground biomass production and leaf-nutrient concentrations (N, P and K) of broad-leafed and fine-leafed tree species. Contrary to expectations, neither changes in water supply nor changes in soil nutrient level affected biomass production of the studied species. By contrast, leaf-nutrient concentration did change significantly. Under regular water supply, soil nutrient addition increased the leaf phosphorus concentration of both fine-leafed and broad-leafed species. However, under uneven water supply, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentration declined with soil nutrient supply, this effect being more accentuated in broad-leafed species. Leaf potassium concentration of broad-leafed species was lower when growing under constant water supply, especially when no NPK fertilizer was applied. We found that changes in environmental factors can affect leaf quality, indicating a potential interactive effect between land-use changes and environmental changes on savanna vegetation: under more uneven rainfall patterns within the growing season, leaf quality of tree seedlings for a number of species can change as a response to changes in nutrient levels, even if overall plant biomass does not change. Such changes might affect herbivore pressure on trees and thus savanna plant community dynamics. Although longer term experiments would be essential to test such potential effects of eutrophication via changes in leaf nutrient concentration, our findings provide important insights that can help guide management plans that aim to preserve savanna biodiversity.

Estimating the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower and Power Marketing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sale, Michael J; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Uria Martinez, Rocio

The U.S. Department of Energy is currently preparing an assessment of the effects of climate change on federal hydropower, as directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the Secure Water Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-11). This paper describes the assessment approach being used in a Report to Congress currently being prepared by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The 9505 assessment will examine climate change effects on water available for hydropower operations and the future power supplies marketed from federal hydropower projects. It will also include recommendations from the Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) on potential changes in operation or contracting practices thatmore » could address these effects and risks of climate change. Potential adaption and mitigation strategies will also be identified. Federal hydropower comprises approximately half of the U.S. hydropower portfolio. The results from the 9505 assessment will promote better understanding among federal dam owners/operators of the sensitivity of their facilities to water availability, and it will provide a basis for planning future actions that will enable adaptation to climate variability and change. The end-users of information are Congressional members, their staff, the PMAs and their customers, federal dam owners/operators, and the DOE Water Power Program.« less

Relations of changes in wastewater-treatment practices to changes in stream-water quality during 1978-88 in the Chicago area, Illinois, and implications for regional and national water-quality assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terrio, P.J.

1994-01-01

A study in the upper Illinois River Basin defined relations between changes in wastewater-treatment practices and changes in stream-water quality on the basis of available information. These relations were examined for five large wastewater-treatment plants in the Chicago area, Illinois. At the three largest treatment plants, two major changes in wastewater-treatment practices were identified--the cessation of chlorination and the implementation of Chicago's Tunnel and Reservoir Plan (TARP). Other changes, such as improved aeration and expansion of the facilities, also were made at some of the treatment plants. At the Calumet Water Reclamation Plant, median densities of fecal coliform bacteria in the effluent increased from 3,100 to 1,200,000 colonies per 100 milliliters after the cessation of chlorination. Median densities at the nearest downstream monitoring site increased from 9,500 to 250,000 colonies per 100 milliliters. Similar changes in bacteria densities were indicated for other treatment plants and stream-monitoring sites, but increases in densities of fecal coliform bacteria were not indicated at distances greater than 7 miles downstream. Substantial changes in effluent and stream-water quality, primarily improvements, were identified after the implemen- of TARP and improvements in aeration. Decreases in some of the largest concentrations of ammonia were particularly notable and were likely results of the cape and treatment of combined sewer overflows by TARP. Improvements in water quality were commonly related to climatic season, with greater changes taking place during warm periods. Substantial decreases in concentrations were identified for many constituents, including oxygen demand, ammonia, bacteria, and cyanide. The water-quality data available for this study were considered to be more accurate and were more comprehensive than data from most other monitoring programs. The results of this study, however, identified some needed enhancements to increase the usefulness of the data for additional purposes and analyses.

Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santikayasa, I. P.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

PubMed

Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

2010-04-01

This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential for Loss of Breeding Habitat for Imperiled Mountain Yellow-legged Frog ( Rana muscosa) in High Sierra Nevada Mountain Water Bodies due to Reduced Snowpack: Interaction of Climate Change and an Introduced Predator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacan, I.; Matthews, K. R.

2005-12-01

Year to year variation in snowpack (20-200% average) and summer rain create large fluctuations in the volume of water in ponds and small lakes of the higher elevation (> 3000 m) Sierra Nevada. These water bodies are critical habitat for the imperiled mountain yellow-legged frog, Rana muscosa, which has decreased in abundance by 90% during the past century, due in part to the loss of suitable habitat and introduction of a fish predator (trout, Oncorhynchus spp.). Climate change is predicted to reduce the amount of snowpack, potentially impacting amphibian habitats throughout the Sierra Nevada by further reducing the lake and pond water levels and resulting in drying of small lakes during the summer. Mountain yellow-legged frogs are closely tied to water during all life stages, and are unique in having a three- to four-year tadpole phase. Thus, tadpole survival and future recruitment of adult frogs requires adequate water in lakes and ponds throughout the year, but larger lakes are populated with fish that prey on frogs and tadpoles. Thus, most successful frog breeding occurs in warm, shallow, fishless ponds that undergo wide fluctuations in volume. These water bodies would be most susceptible to the potential climate change effects of reduced snowpack, possibly resulting in lower tadpole survival. This study explores the link between the changes in water availability -- including complete pond drying -- and the abundance and recruitment of mountain yellow-legged frog in Dusy Basin, Kings Canyon National Park, California, USA. We propose using the low-snowpack years (1999, 2002, 2004) as comparative case studies to predict future effects of climate change on aquatic habitat availability and amphibian abundance and survival. To quantify the year to year variation and changes in water volume available to amphibians, we initiated GPS lake mapping in 2002 to quantify water volumes, water surface area, and shoreline length. We tracked these changes by repeated mapping of water surface and volume (bathymetry) during the summer, and concurrently counting all the life stages (adults, subadults, tadpoles) of frogs. As a baseline in this analysis, we present 2002 data when pond volume declined 40-100% during summer in three breeding lakes. The lakes that completely dried up in 2002 were repopulated by adults in 2003 but showed no recruitment of metamorphosed frogs from previous year's tadpoles. The lakes that retained water -- even if they underwent a large reduction in water volume (-60%), surface area (-70%) and shoreline length (-70%) during the summer -- show consistent tadpole-to-subadult recruitment in the following year (2003). Similar results are obtained using frog counts from 1999-2000 and 2004-2005 and estimates of water volume in those years. Our results suggest that more frequent summer drying of small ponds -- as may be induced by climate change -- will severely reduce frog recruitment. When combined with the invasive fish that prevent frog breeding in larger lakes, such effect of climate change may cause loss of local frog populations, and push the entire species towards extinction.

Application of MODFLOW’s farm process to California’s Central Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia; Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Belitz, Kenneth

2008-01-01

landscape processes. The FMP provides coupled simulation of the ground-water and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle for irrigated and non-irrigated areas. A dynamic allocation of ground-water recharge and ground-water pumping is simulated on the basis of residual crop-water demand after surface-water deliveries and root uptake from shallow ground water. The FMP links with the Streamflow Routing Package SFR1) to facilitate the simulated conveyance of surface-water deliveries. Ground-water Pumpage through both single-aquifer and multi-node wells, irrigation return flow, and variable irrigation efficiencies also are simulated by the FMP. The simulated deliveries and ground-water pumpage in the updated model reflect climatic differences, differences among defined water-balance regions, and changes in the waterdelivery system, during the 1961–2003 simulation period. The model is designed to accept forecasts from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the potential effects on surface-water delivery, ground-water pumpage, and ground-water storage in response to climate change. The model provides a detailed transient analysis of changes in ground-water availability in relation to climatic variability, urbanization, and changes in irrigated agriculture.

An annual quasidifference approach to water price elasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, David R.; Griffin, Ronald C.

2008-08-01

The preferred price specification for retail water demand estimation has not been fully settled by prior literature. Empirical consistency of price indices is necessary to enable testing of competing specifications. Available methods of unbiasing the price index are summarized here. Using original rate information from several hundred Texas utilities, new indices of marginal and average price change are constructed. Marginal water price change is shown to explain consumption variation better than average water price change, based on standard information criteria. Annual change in quantity consumed per month is estimated with differences in climate variables and the new quasidifference marginal price index. As expected, the annual price elasticity of demand is found to vary with daily high and low temperatures and the frequency of precipitation.

The trade-offs between milk production and soil organic carbon storage in dairy systems under different management and environmental factors.

PubMed

Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Schipper, Louis A; Mudge, Paul L; Rutledge, Susanna; Puche, Nicolas J B; Campbell, David I

2017-01-15

A possible agricultural climate change mitigation option is to increase the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC). Conversely, some factors might lead to inadvertent losses of SOC. Here, we explore the effect of various management options and environmental changes on SOC storage and milk production of dairy pastures in New Zealand. We used CenW 4.1, a process-based ecophysiological model, to run a range of scenarios to assess the effects of changes in management options, plant properties and environmental factors on SOC and milk production. We tested the model by using 2years of observations of the exchanges of water and CO 2 measured with an eddy covariance system on a dairy farm in New Zealand's Waikato region. We obtained excellent agreement between the model and observations, especially for evapotranspiration and net photosynthesis. For the scenario analysis, we found that SOC could be increased through supplying supplemental feed, increasing fertiliser application, or increasing water availability through irrigation on very dry sites, but SOC decreased again for larger increases in water availability. Soil warming strongly reduced SOC. For other changes in key properties, such as changes in soil water-holding capacity and plant root:shoot ratios, SOC changes were often negatively correlated with changes in milk production. The work showed that changes in SOC were determined by the complex interplay between (1) changes in net primary production; (2) the carbon fraction taken off-site through grazing; (3) carbon allocation within the system between labile and stabilised SOC; and (4) changes in SOC decomposition rates. There is a particularly important trade-off between carbon either being removed by grazing or remaining on site and available for SOC formation. Changes in SOC cannot be fully understood unless all four factors are considered together in an overall assessment. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Novel Approach for Evaluation of Water Quality Trends in Gulf Coast Estuaries

EPA Science Inventory

Water quality data form the backbone of management programs aimed at protecting environmental resources. The increasing availability of long-term monitoring data for estuaries can improve detection of temporal and spatial changes in water quality. However, the relatively simple...

Development of the Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI) and short-term assessment with multi-scale remote sensing technologies.

PubMed

Chang, Ni-Bin; Yang, Y Jeffrey; Goodrich, James A; Daranpob, Ammarin

2010-06-01

Global climate change will influence environmental conditions including temperature, surface radiation, soil moisture, and sea level, and it will also significantly impact regional-scale hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, runoff, and snowmelt. The quantity and quality of water available for drinking and other domestic usage is also likely to be affected by changes in these processes. Consequently, it is necessary to assess and reflect upon the challenges ahead for water infrastructure and the general public in metropolitan regions. One approach to the problem is to use index-based assessment, forecasting and planning. The drought indices previously developed were not developed for domestic water supplies, and thus are insufficient for the purpose of such an assessment. This paper aims to propose and develop a "Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI)" to assess the status of both the quantity and quality of available potable water sources diverted from the hydrologic cycle in a metropolitan region. In this approach, the accessible water may be expressed as volume per month or week (i.e., m(3)/month or m(3)/week) relative to a prescribed historical record, and such a trend analysis may result in final MWAI values ranging from -1 to +1 for regional water management decision making. The MWAI computation uses data and information from both historical point measurements and spatial remote-sensing based monitoring. Variables such as precipitation, river discharge, and water quality changes at drinking water plant intakes at specific locations are past "point" measurements in MWAI calculations. On the other hand, remote sensing provides information on both spatial and temporal distributions of key variables. Examples of remote-sensing images and sensor network technologies are in-situ sensor networks, ground-based radar, air-borne aircraft, and even space-borne satellites. A case study in Tampa Bay, Florida is described to demonstrate the short-term assessment of the MWAI concept at a practical level. It is anticipated that such a forecasting methodology may be extended for middle-term and long-term water supply assessment. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishiwa, Peter; Nobert, Joel; Kongo, Victor; Ndomba, Preksedis

2018-05-01

This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16-18 % in 2050s relative to 1980-1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 °C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

North American water availability under stress and duress: building understanding from simulations, observations and data products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.; Atchley, A. L.; Hector, B.

2017-12-01

Quantifying the available freshwater for human use and ecological function depends on fluxes and stores that are hard to observe. Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest terrestrial flux of water behind precipitation but is observed with low spatial density. Likewise, groundwater is the largest freshwater store, yet is equally uncertain. The ability to upscale observations of these variables is an additional complication; point measurements are made at scales orders of magnitude smaller than remote sensing data products. Integrated hydrologic models that simulate continental extents at fine spatial resolution are now becoming an additional tool to constrain fluxes and address interconnections. For example, recent work has shown connections between water table depth and transpiration partitioning, and demonstrated the ability to reconcile point observations and large-scale inferences. Here we explore the dynamics of large hydrologic systems experiencing change and stress across continental North America using integrated model simulations, observations and data products. Simulations of aquifer depletion due to pervasive groundwater pumping diagnose both stream depletion and changes in ET. Simulations of systematic increases in temperature are used to understand the relationship between snowpack dynamics, surface and groundwater flow, ET and a changing climate. Remotely sensed products including the GRACE estimates of total storage change are downscaled using model simulations to better understand human impacts to the hydrologic cycle. These example applications motivate a path forward to better use simulations to understand water availability.

Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains.

PubMed

Ragettli, Silvan; Immerzeel, Walter W; Pellicciotti, Francesca

2016-08-16

Mountain ranges are the world's natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.

Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains

PubMed Central

Pellicciotti, Francesca

2016-01-01

Mountain ranges are the world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority. PMID:27482082

In brief: Climate change and water: Perspectives from the Forest Service

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service

2008-01-01

Freshwater availability is an increasing concern across the globe and it may be the most important natural resource issue of the century. Climate change and its effects on water are expected to intensify freshwater scarcity and conflict. A forthcoming Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture report will highlight the importance of managing forests to provide...

Species Richness Patterns and Water-Energy Dynamics in the Drylands of Northwest China

PubMed Central

Zerbe, Stefan; Abdusalih, Nurbay; Tang, Zhiyao; Ma, Ming; Yin, Linke; Mohammat, Anwar; Han, Wenxuan; Fang, Jingyun

2013-01-01

Dryland ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climatic and land-use changes, while the mechanisms underlying patterns of dryland species richness are still elusive. With distributions of 3637 native vascular plants, 154 mammals, and 425 birds in Xinjiang, China, we tested the water-energy dynamics hypothesis for species richness patterns in Central Asian drylands. Our results supported the water-energy dynamics hypothesis. We found that species richness of all three groups was a hump-shaped function of energy availability, but a linear function of water availability. We further found that water availability had stronger effects on plant richness, but weaker effects on vertebrate richness than energy availability. We conducted piecewise linear regressions to detect the breakpoints in the relationship between species richness and potential evapotranspiration which divided Xinjiang into low and high energy regions. The concordance between mammal and plant richness was stronger in high than in low energy regions, which was opposite to that between birds and plants. Plant richness had stronger effects than climate on mammal richness regardless of energy levels, but on bird richness only in high energy regions. The changes in the concordance between vertebrate and plant richness along the climatic gradient suggest that cautions are needed when using concordance between taxa in conservation planning. PMID:23840472

Species richness patterns and water-energy dynamics in the drylands of Northwest China.

PubMed

Li, Liping; Wang, Zhiheng; Zerbe, Stefan; Abdusalih, Nurbay; Tang, Zhiyao; Ma, Ming; Yin, Linke; Mohammat, Anwar; Han, Wenxuan; Fang, Jingyun

2013-01-01

Dryland ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climatic and land-use changes, while the mechanisms underlying patterns of dryland species richness are still elusive. With distributions of 3637 native vascular plants, 154 mammals, and 425 birds in Xinjiang, China, we tested the water-energy dynamics hypothesis for species richness patterns in Central Asian drylands. Our results supported the water-energy dynamics hypothesis. We found that species richness of all three groups was a hump-shaped function of energy availability, but a linear function of water availability. We further found that water availability had stronger effects on plant richness, but weaker effects on vertebrate richness than energy availability. We conducted piecewise linear regressions to detect the breakpoints in the relationship between species richness and potential evapotranspiration which divided Xinjiang into low and high energy regions. The concordance between mammal and plant richness was stronger in high than in low energy regions, which was opposite to that between birds and plants. Plant richness had stronger effects than climate on mammal richness regardless of energy levels, but on bird richness only in high energy regions. The changes in the concordance between vertebrate and plant richness along the climatic gradient suggest that cautions are needed when using concordance between taxa in conservation planning.

Agent-Based Modelling of Agricultural Water Abstraction in Response to Climate, Policy, and Demand Changes: Results from East Anglia, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swinscoe, T. H. A.; Knoeri, C.; Fleskens, L.; Barrett, J.

2014-12-01

Freshwater is a vital natural resource for multiple needs, such as drinking water for the public, industrial processes, hydropower for energy companies, and irrigation for agriculture. In the UK, crop production is the largest in East Anglia, while at the same time the region is also the driest, with average annual rainfall between 560 and 720 mm (1971 to 2000). Many water catchments of East Anglia are reported as over licensed or over abstracted. Therefore, freshwater available for agricultural irrigation abstraction in this region is becoming both increasingly scarce due to competing demands, and increasingly variable and uncertain due to climate and policy changes. It is vital for water users and policy makers to understand how these factors will affect individual abstractors and water resource management at the system level. We present first results of an Agent-based Model that captures the complexity of this system as individual abstractors interact, learn and adapt to these internal and external changes. The purpose of this model is to simulate what patterns of water resource management emerge on the system level based on local interactions, adaptations and behaviours, and what policies lead to a sustainable water resource management system. The model is based on an irrigation abstractor typology derived from a survey in the study area, to capture individual behavioural intentions under a range of water availability scenarios, in addition to farm attributes, and demographics. Regional climate change scenarios, current and new abstraction licence reforms by the UK regulator, such as water trading and water shares, and estimated demand increases from other sectors were used as additional input data. Findings from the integrated model provide new understanding of the patterns of water resource management likely to emerge at the system level.

Sustainability of irrigated crops under future climate: the interplay of irrigation strategies and cultivar responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzi, F.; Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, S.; Patanè, C.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Monaco, E.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

Climate evolution will cause significant changes in the quality and availability of water resources, affecting many sectors including food production, where available water resources for irrigation play a crucial role. Strategies focused on managing and conserving water are one way to deal with the impact; moreover concurring adaptation measurements will be needed to cope with the foreseen decline of water resource. This work deals with i) the impacts of climate change on water requirements of an horticultural crop, determined in an irrigated district in Southern Italy, ii) the possible irrigation scheduling options and their sustainability in the future, iii) the adaptation measurements that can be undertaken to protect production, relying on intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops. Two climate scenarios were considered: present climate (1961-90) and future climate (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data set consists of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and rainfall on a grid with spatial resolution of 35 km. The analysis of climate scenarios showed that significant increases in summer maximum daily temperature could be expected in 2021-2050 period. Soil water regime was determined by means of a mechanistic model (SWAP) of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Twenty? soil units were identified in the district (in Sele Plain, Campania Region) and simulations were performed accounting for hydro-pedological properties of different soil units. Parameters of a generic tomato crop, in a rotation typical of the area, were used in simulations. Soil water balance was simulated in the present and future climate, both with optimal water availability and under constrains that irrigation schemes will pose. Indicators of soil water availability were calculated, in terms of soil water or evapotranspiration deficit. For several tomato cultivars, quantitative yield response functions to water availability were determined through the re-analysis of experimental data, derived from scientific literature. Variety-specific threshold values of yield reduction in dependence of soil water and evapotranspiration deficit were determined. The spatial pattern of soil water availability indicators was calculated., for present and future climate scenarios and for different irrigation scheduling options. Cultivars' threshold values were matched with indicators' values in all soil units. The future adaptability of the crop in the area is thus evaluated, and adaptation options that exploit the intra-specific biodiversity of the crop are indicated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, tomato, deficit irrigation, biodiversity

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

PubMed Central

Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-01-01

Abstract Decision‐Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi‐method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder‐identified decision‐critical metrics are examined: a basin‐wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade‐offs emerge between intrabasin and basin‐wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long‐term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision‐making under deep uncertainty. PMID:29706676

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Conceptual model of water resources in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Thomas J.; Akbari, M. Amin; Ashoor, M. Hanif; Chornack, Michael P.; Coplen, Tyler B.; Emerson, Douglas G.; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Litke, David W.; Michel, Robert L.; Plummer, Niel; Rezai, M. Taher; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.; Verstraeten, Ingrid M.

2010-01-01

The United States (U.S.) Geological Survey has been working with the Afghanistan Geological Survey and the Afghanistan Ministry of Energy and Water on water-resources investigations in the Kabul Basin under an agreement supported by the United States Agency for International Development. This collaborative investigation compiled, to the extent possible in a war-stricken country, a varied hydrogeologic data set and developed limited data-collection networks to assist with the management of water resources in the Kabul Basin. This report presents the results of a multidisciplinary water-resources assessment conducted between 2005 and 2007 to address questions of future water availability for a growing population and of the potential effects of climate change. Most hydrologic and climatic data-collection activities in Afghanistan were interrupted in the early 1980s as a consequence of war and civil strife and did not resume until 2003 or later. Because of the gap of more than 20 years in the record of hydrologic and climatic observations, this investigation has made considerable use of remotely sensed data and, where available, historical records to investigate the water resources of the Kabul Basin. Specifically, this investigation integrated recently acquired remotely sensed data and satellite imagery, including glacier and climatic data; recent climate-change analyses; recent geologic investigations; analysis of streamflow data; groundwater-level analysis; surface-water- and groundwater-quality data, including data on chemical and isotopic environmental tracers; and estimates of public-supply and agricultural water uses. The data and analyses were integrated by using a simplified groundwater-flow model to test the conceptual model of the hydrologic system and to assess current (2007) and future (2057) water availability. Recharge in the basin is spatially and temporally variable and generally occurs near streams and irrigated areas in the late winter and early spring. In irrigated areas near uplands or major rivers, the annual recharge rate may be about 1.2 ? 10-3 meters per year; however, in areas at lower altitude with little irrigation, the recharge rate may average about 0.7 ? 10-3 meters per year. With increasing population, the water needs of the Kabul Basin are estimated to increase from 112,000 cubic meters per day to about 725,000 cubic meters per day by the year 2057. In some areas of the basin, particularly in the north along the western mountain front and near major rivers, water resources are generally adequate for current needs. In other areas of the basin, such as in the east and away from major rivers, the available water resources may not meet future needs. On the basis of the model simulations, increasing withdrawals are likely to result in declining water levels that may cause more than 50 percent of shallow (typically less than 50 meters deep) supply wells to become dry or inoperative. The water quality in the shallow (less than 100 meters thick), unconsolidated primary aquifer has deteriorated in urban areas because of poor sanitation. Concerns about water availability may be compounded by poor well-construction practices and lack of planning. Future water resources of the Kabul Basin will likely be reduced as a result of increasing air temperatures associated with global climate change. It is estimated that at least 60 percent of shallow groundwater-supply wells would be affected and may become dry or inoperative as a result of climate change. These effects of climate change would likely be greatest in the agricultural areas adjacent to the Paghman Mountains where a majority of springs, karezes, and wells would be affected. The water available in the shallow primary aquifer of the basin may meet future water needs in the northern areas of the Kabul Basin near the Panjsher River. Conceptual groundwater-flow simulations indicate that the basin likely has groundwater reserves in unused unconsolidate

76 FR 9594 - Notice of Availability of the Draft Northern Arizona Proposed Withdrawal Environmental Impact...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-18

... availability of uranium resources; Dewatering of perched aquifers and changes in water availability in deep... 241A; AZA 035138] Notice of Availability of the Draft Northern Arizona Proposed Withdrawal... Management, Interior. ACTION: Notice of availability. SUMMARY: In accordance with the National Environmental...

Availability of Water in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Thomas J.; Chornack, Michael P.; Coplen, T.B.; Plummer, Niel; Rezai, M.T.; Verstraeten, Ingrid M.

2010-01-01

The availability of water resources is vital to the social and economic well being and rebuilding of Afghanistan. Kabul City currently (2010) has a population of nearly 4 million and is growing rapidly as a result of periods of relative security and the return of refugees. Population growth and recent droughts have placed new stresses on the city's limited water resources and have caused many wells to become contaminated, dry, or inoperable in recent years. The projected vulnerability of Central and West Asia to climate change (Cruz and others, 2007; Milly and others, 2005) and observations of diminishing glaciers in Afghanistan (Molnia, 2009) have heightened concerns for future water availability in the Kabul Basin of Afghanistan.

Irrigation Dynamics and Tactics - Developing a Sustainable and Profitable Irrigation Strategy for Agricultural Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Opstal, J.; Neale, C. M. U.; Lecina, S.

2014-12-01

Irrigation management is a dynamic process that adapts according to weather conditions and water availability, as well as socio-economic influences. The goal of water users is to adapt their management to achieve maximum profits. However, these decisions should take into account the environmental impact on the surroundings. Agricultural irrigation systems need to be viewed as a system that is an integral part of a watershed. Therefore changes in the infrastructure, operation and management of an irrigated area, has an impact on the water quantity and quality available for other water users. A strategy can be developed for decision-makers using an irrigation system modelling tool. Such a tool can simulate the impact of the infrastructure, operation and management of an irrigation area on its hydrology and agricultural productivity. This combination of factors is successfully simulated with the Ador model, which is able to reproduce on-farm irrigation and water delivery by a canal system. Model simulations for this study are supported with spatial analysis tools using GIS and remote sensing. Continuous measurements of drainage water will be added to indicate the water quality aspects. The Bear River Canal Company located in Northern Utah (U.S.A.) is used as a case study for this research. The irrigation area encompasses 26,000 ha and grows mainly alfalfa, grains, corn and onions. The model allows the simulation of different strategies related to water delivery, on-farm water use, crop rotations, and reservoirs and networks capacities under different weather and water availability conditions. Such changes in the irrigation area will have consequences for farmers in the study area regarding crop production, and for downstream users concerning both the quantity and quality of outflows. The findings from this study give insight to decision-makers and water users for changing irrigation water delivery strategies to improve the sustainability and profitability of agriculture in the future.

Habitat degradation affects the summer activity of polar bears.

PubMed

Ware, Jasmine V; Rode, Karyn D; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Douglas, David C; Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steven C; Durner, George M; Pagano, Anthony M; Olson, Jay; Robbins, Charles T; Jansen, Heiko T

2017-05-01

Understanding behavioral responses of species to environmental change is critical to forecasting population-level effects. Although climate change is significantly impacting species' distributions, few studies have examined associated changes in behavior. Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations have varied in their near-term responses to sea ice decline. We examined behavioral responses of two adjacent subpopulations to changes in habitat availability during the annual sea ice minimum using activity data. Location and activity sensor data collected from 1989 to 2014 for 202 adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) subpopulations were used to compare activity in three habitat types varying in prey availability: (1) land; (2) ice over shallow, biologically productive waters; and (3) ice over deeper, less productive waters. Bears varied activity across and within habitats with the highest activity at 50-75% sea ice concentration over shallow waters. On land, SB bears exhibited variable but relatively high activity associated with the use of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale carcasses, whereas CS bears exhibited low activity consistent with minimal feeding. Both subpopulations had fewer observations in their preferred shallow-water sea ice habitats in recent years, corresponding with declines in availability of this substrate. The substantially higher use of marginal habitats by SB bears is an additional mechanism potentially explaining why this subpopulation has experienced negative effects of sea ice loss compared to the still-productive CS subpopulation. Variability in activity among, and within, habitats suggests that bears alter their behavior in response to habitat conditions, presumably in an attempt to balance prey availability with energy costs.

Habitat degradation affects the summer activity of polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ware, Jasmine V.; Rode, Karyn D.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Douglas, David C.; Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Durner, George M.; Pagano, Anthony M.; Olson, Jay; Robbins, Charles T.; Jansen, Heiko T

2017-01-01

Understanding behavioral responses of species to environmental change is critical to forecasting population-level effects. Although climate change is significantly impacting species’ distributions, few studies have examined associated changes in behavior. Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations have varied in their near-term responses to sea ice decline. We examined behavioral responses of two adjacent subpopulations to changes in habitat availability during the annual sea ice minimum using activity data. Location and activity sensor data collected from 1989 to 2014 for 202 adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) subpopulations were used to compare activity in three habitat types varying in prey availability: (1) land; (2) ice over shallow, biologically productive waters; and (3) ice over deeper, less productive waters. Bears varied activity across and within habitats with the highest activity at 50–75% sea ice concentration over shallow waters. On land, SB bears exhibited variable but relatively high activity associated with the use of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale carcasses, whereas CS bears exhibited low activity consistent with minimal feeding. Both subpopulations had fewer observations in their preferred shallow-water sea ice habitats in recent years, corresponding with declines in availability of this substrate. The substantially higher use of marginal habitats by SB bears is an additional mechanism potentially explaining why this subpopulation has experienced negative effects of sea ice loss compared to the still-productive CS subpopulation. Variability in activity among, and within, habitats suggests that bears alter their behavior in response to habitat conditions, presumably in an attempt to balance prey availability with energy costs.

Intersects between Land, Energy, Water and the Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbard, K. A.; Skaggs, R.; Wilson, T.

2012-12-01

Climate change affects water, and land resources, and with growing human activity, each of these sectors relies increasingly on the others for critical resources. Events such as drought across the South Central U.S. during 2011 demonstrate that climatic impacts within each of these sectors can cascade through interactions between sectors. Energy, water, and land resources are each vulnerable to impacts on either of the other two sectors. For example, energy systems inherently require land and water. Increased electricity demands to contend with climate change can impose additional burdens on overly subscribed water resources. Within this environment, energy systems compete for water with agriculture, human consumption, and other needs. In turn, climate driven changes in landscape attributes and land use affect water quality and availability as well as energy demands. Diminishing water quality and availability impose additional demands for energy to access and purify water, and for land to store and distribute water. In some situations, interactions between water, energy, and land resources make options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions vulnerable to climate change. Energy options such as solar power or biofuel use can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions as well as U.S. dependence on foreign resources. As a result, the U.S. is expanding renewable energy systems. Advanced technology such as carbon dioxide capture with biofuels may offer a means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. But as with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources can impose significant demands for water and land. For example, solar power mayrequire significant land to site facilities and water for cooling or to produce steam. Raising crops to produce biofuels uses arable land and water that might otherwise be available for food production. Thus, warmer and drier climate can compromise these renewable energy resources, and drought can stress water supplies creating competition between energy production and agriculture. These kinds of stresses often initiate innovated technological developments, such as dry cooling to reduce water demands in the U.S. Southwest for utility-scalesolar development, however, the need for large areas of land remain, and often, large land tracts in this region are under Federal ownership and used as conservation or wildlife refuges. Conflicting stakeholder views, institutional commitments, and international concerns can constrain options for reducing vulnerability to climate change, and interactions among water, energy, and land resource sectors can intensify such constraints. While management decisions may focus primarily on one of these resource sectors, where the three sectors are tightly coupled, options for mitigating or adapting to climate change may be limited more than expected. For example, the Columbia River Treaty between Canada and the U.S. emphasizes hydroelectric power and flood control, but with warmer temperatures and drier summers projected for the Northwest, diminishing water supplies will result in increased pumping for resource production (i.e., deeper groundwater) and transmission. Finally, coordinated water management for agriculture, ecosystem services, and hydropower will be an important aspect of adaptation not necessarily accommodated by the Treaty.

Exploiting water versus tolerating drought: water-use strategies of trees in a secondary successional tropical dry forest

Treesearch

Fernando Pineda-García; Horacio Paz; Frederick C. Meinzer; Guillermo Angeles; Guillermo Goldstein

2015-01-01

In seasonal plant communities where water availability changes dramatically both between and within seasons, understanding the mechanisms that enable plants to exploit water pulses and to survive drought periods is crucial. By measuring rates of physiological processes, we examined the trade-off between water exploitation and drought tolerance among seedlings of trees...

Impacts of forest biomass removal on water yield across the United States

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Liangxia Zhang; Kai Duan; Benjamin Rau

2017-01-01

Water is essential to all forms of life on earth and is a powerful, integrated indicator of environmental health and ecosystem sustainability (Asbjornsen et al. 2015). In some areas of the United States, water availability and water quality are declining as a result of urbanization, climate change, and increased water demand for agricul- tural irrigation, power...

Radiolarians decreased silicification as an evolutionary response to reduced Cenozoic ocean silica availability

PubMed Central

Lazarus, David B.; Kotrc, Benjamin; Wulf, Gerwin; Schmidt, Daniela N.

2009-01-01

It has been hypothesized that increased water column stratification has been an abiotic “universal driver” affecting average cell size in Cenozoic marine plankton. Gradually decreasing Cenozoic radiolarian shell weight, by contrast, suggests that competition for dissolved silica, a shared nutrient, resulted in biologic coevolution between radiolaria and marine diatoms, which expanded dramatically in the Cenozoic. We present data on the 2 components of shell weight change—size and silicification—of Cenozoic radiolarians. In low latitudes, increasing Cenozoic export of silica to deep waters by diatoms and decreasing nutrient upwelling from increased water column stratification have created modern silica-poor surface waters. Here, radiolarian silicification decreases significantly (r = 0.91, P < 0.001), from ≈0.18 (shell volume fraction) in the basal Cenozoic to modern values of ≈0.06. A third of the total change occurred rapidly at 35 Ma, in correlation to major increases in water column stratification and abundance of diatoms. In high southern latitudes, Southern Ocean circulation, present since the late Eocene, maintains significant surface water silica availability. Here, radiolarian silicification decreased insignificantly (r = 0.58, P = 0.1), from ≈0.13 at 35 Ma to 0.11 today. Trends in shell size in both time series are statistically insignificant and are not correlated with each other. We conclude that there is no universal driver changing cell size in Cenozoic marine plankton. Furthermore, biologic and physical factors have, in concert, by reducing silica availability in surface waters, forced macroevolutionary changes in Cenozoic low-latitude radiolarians. PMID:19458255

Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.

PubMed

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Laizé, Cédric L R; Acreman, Michael C; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

2014-01-01

Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Assessing the Use of Remote Sensing and a Crop Growth Model to Improve Modeled Streamflow in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richey, A. S.; Richey, J. E.; Tan, A.; Liu, M.; Adam, J. C.; Sokolov, V.

2015-12-01

Central Asia presents a perfect case study to understand the dynamic, and often conflicting, linkages between food, energy, and water in natural systems. The destruction of the Aral Sea is a well-known environmental disaster, largely driven by increased irrigation demand on the rivers that feed the endorheic sea. Continued reliance on these rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, often place available water resources at odds between hydropower demands upstream and irrigation requirements downstream. A combination of tools is required to understand these linkages and how they may change in the future as a function of climate change and population growth. In addition, the region is geopolitically complex as the former Soviet basin states develop management strategies to sustainably manage shared resources. This complexity increases the importance of relying upon publically available information sources and tools. Preliminary work has shown potential for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to recreate the natural water balance in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins by comparing results to total terrestrial water storage changes observed from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Modeled streamflow is well correlated to observed streamflow at upstream gauges prior to the large-scale expansion of irrigation and hydropower. However, current modeled results are unable to capture the human influence of water use on downstream flow. This study examines the utility of a crop simulation model, CropSyst, to represent irrigation demand and GRACE to improve modeled streamflow estimates in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Specifically we determine crop water demand with CropSyst utilizing available data on irrigation schemes and cropping patterns. We determine how this demand can be met either by surface water, modeled by VIC with a reservoir operation scheme, and/or by groundwater derived from GRACE. Finally, we assess how the inclusion of CropSyst and groundwater to model and meet irrigation demand improves modeled streamflow from VIC throughout the basins. The results of this work are integrated into a decision support platform to assist the basin states in understanding water availability and the impact of management decisions on available resources.

Economic resilience through "One-Water" management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

Disruption of water availability leads to food scarcity and loss of economic opportunity. Development of effective water-resource policies and management strategies could provide resiliance to local economies in the face of water disruptions such as drought, flood, and climate change. To accomplish this, a detailed understanding of human water use and natural water resource availability is needed. A hydrologic model is a computer software system that simulates the movement and use of water in a geographic area. It takes into account all components of the water cycle--“One Water”--and helps estimate water budgets for groundwater, surface water, and landscape features. The U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW One-Water Integrated Hydrologic Model (MODFLOWOWHM) software and scientific methods can provide water managers and political leaders with hydrologic information they need to help ensure water security and economic resilience.

Evaluating the contribution of Sustainable Land Management to climate change adaptation and mitigation, and its impacts on Mediterranean ecosystem services.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vente, Joris; Zagaria, Cecilia; Pérez-Cutillas, Pedro; Almagro, Maria; Martínez-Mena, Maria; Baartman, Jantiene; Boix-Fayos, Carolina

2015-04-01

Changing climate and land management have strong implications for soil and water resources and for many essential ecosystem services (ES), such as provision of drinking and irrigation water, soil erosion control, and carbon sequestration. Large impacts of climate change are expected in the Mediterranean, characterized by a high dependence on scarce soil and water resources. On the other hand, well designed Sustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies can reduce the risks associated with climate change, but their design requires knowledge of their multiple effects on ecosystem services under present and future climate scenarios and of possible tradeoffs. Moreover, strategies are only viable if suited to local environmental, socio-economic and cultural conditions, so stakeholder engagement is crucial during their selection, evaluation and implementation. We present preliminary results of a catchment wide assessment of the expected impacts of climate change on water availability in the Segura basin (18800 km2) southeastern Spain. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of past land use changes and the benefits of catchment wide implementation of SLM practices to protect soil and water resources, prevent sedimentation of reservoirs and increase carbon sequestration in soil and vegetation. We used the InVEST modeling framework to simulate the water availability and sediment export under different climate, land use and land management scenarios, and quantified carbon stocks in soil and vegetation. Realistic scenarios of implementation of SLM practices were prepared based on an extensive process of stakeholder engagement and using latest climate change predictions from Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios. Results indicate a strong decrease in water availability in the Segura catchment under expected climate change, with average reductions of upto 60% and large spatial variability. Land use changes (1990 - 2006) resulted in a slight increase in water yield (3.3%), a decrease in sediment export (21%) and organic carbon stock (1.7%). Headwaters showed on average a decrease in water yield, while downstream water yield increased, while changes in carbon stocks showed the opposite trend. Under present day land use, headwaters show highest carbon stocks and generally provide most ES per hectare. Yet, rainfed arable land located mainly in downstream parts of the catchment accounts for about 20% of the total carbon stock. Implementation of reduced tillage in combination with green manure results in an increase of the total carbon stock of the Segura catchment by about 3.3%, while sediment export reduces by 28% and water yield increases by 2.15% with an adoption rate of 10%. Under higher adoption levels decreasing water yield was found possibly indicating decreased water stress for crops. Overall, reduced tillage-green manure was found to lead to an increase in ES provision with important spatial variability and strongly affected by local environmental conditions. These results allow us to compare the effectiveness and efficiency of land use versus land management changes on protection of ecosystem services, tradeoffs and disparities between sub-catchments of the Segura River. This study's value lies in providing stakeholders with quantitative information upon which SLM strategies result in greatest catchment wide ecosystem service provision and tradeoffs, and thus greatest resilience to expected climate change impacts.

Climate Change Impacts on Rivers and Implications for Electricity Generation in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Macknick, J.; Corsi, F.; Cohen, S. M.; Tidwell, V. C.; Newmark, R. L.; Prousevitch, A.

2015-12-01

The contemporary power sector in the United States is heavily reliant on water resources to provide cooling water for thermoelectric generation. Efficient thermoelectric plant operations require large volumes of water at sufficiently cool temperatures for their cooling process. The total amount of water that is withdrawn or consumed for cooling and any potential declines in efficiencies are determined by the sector's fuel mix and cooling technologies. As such, the impact of climate change, and the extent of impact, on the power sector is shaped by the choice of electricity generation technologies that will be built over the coming decades. In this study, we model potential changes in river discharge and temperature in the contiguous US under a set of climate scenarios to year 2050 using the Water Balance Model-Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Model (WBM-TP2M). Together, these models quantify, in high-resolution (3-min), river temperatures, discharge and power plant efficiency losses associated with changes in available cooling water that incorporates climate, hydrology, river network dynamics and multi-plant impacts, on both single power plant and regional scales. Results are used to assess the aptness and vulnerability of contemporary and alternative electricity generation pathways to changes in climate and water availability for cooling purposes, and the concomitant impacts on power plant operating efficiencies. We assess the potential impacts by comparing six regions (Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest as in the National Climate Assessment (2014)) across the US. These experiments allow us to assess tradeoffs among electricity-water-climate to provide useful insight for decision-makers managing regional power production and aquatic environments.

Long-term trends in field level irrigation water demand in Mahanadi delta districts - a hydrological modeling approach for coping with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju Pokkuluri, Venkat; Rao, Diwakar Parsi Guru; Hazra, Sugata; Srikant Kulkarni, Sunil

2017-04-01

India uses its 85 percent of available water resources for irrigation making it the country with largest net irrigated area in the world. With one of the largest delta plains, sustaining the needs of irrigation supplies is critical for food security and coping with challenges of climate change. The extensive development of upstream river basins/catchments is posing serious challenge and constrains to the water availability to delta regions, which depend on the controlled/regulated flows from the upstream catchments. The irrigation water demands vary due to changes in agricultural practices, cropping pattern and changing climate conditions. Estimation of realistic irrigation water demand and its trend over time is critical for meeting the supplementary water needs of productive agricultural lands in delta plains and there by coping the challenges of extensive upstream river basin development and climate change. The present study carried out in delta districts of Mahanadi river in Odisha State of India, wherein the long-term trends in field level irrigation water requirements were estimated, both on spatial & temporal scales, using hydrological modeling framework. This study attempts to estimate field level irrigation water requirements through simulation of soil water balance during the crop growing season through process based hydrological modeling framework. The soil water balance computations were carried out using FAO-56 framework, by modifying the crop coefficient (Kc) proportional to the water stress coefficient (Ks), which is a function of root zone depletion of water. Daily meteorological data, spatial cropping pattern, terrain are incorporated in the soil water balance simulation in the model. The irrigation water demand is derived considering the exclusion of soil water stress for each model time step. The field level irrigation water requirement at 8 day interval had been estimated for the each Rabi season (post-monsoon) spanning over 1986 to 2015. The results indicate that irrigation water requirements show spatial and temporal changes and tend to deviate from notional/envisaged demands. Validation of estimated irrigation demand is attempted through correlation of gap in supply and demand with the trends in crop water stress and crop production during the study years. Crop water Stress Index (CWSI), which is the ratio of deficit of actual evapotranspiration (AET) from the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and is derived from MODIS Evapotranspiration data. Agricultural production data is used from State/Central government statistics. The attempted methodology provides opportunities to estimate future irrigation water demand under projected climate change scenarios and for planning for basin level water resources development sustaining the delta agriculture, which are projected to be more vulnerable to climate change.

Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century.

PubMed

Veldkamp, T I E; Wada, Y; Aerts, J C J H; Döll, P; Gosling, S N; Liu, J; Masaki, Y; Oki, T; Ostberg, S; Pokhrel, Y; Satoh, Y; Kim, H; Ward, P J

2017-06-15

Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971-2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4-16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4-15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI.

Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

PubMed Central

Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Döll, P.; Gosling, S. N.; Liu, J.; Masaki, Y.; Oki, T.; Ostberg, S.; Pokhrel, Y.; Satoh, Y.; Kim, H.; Ward, P. J.

2017-01-01

Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971–2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4–16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4–15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI. PMID:28643784

Water Scarcity Hotspots Travel Downstream Due to Human Interventions in the 20th and 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Doell, P.; Gosling, S. N.; Liu, J.; Masaki, Y.; Oki, T.; Ostberg, S.; Pokhrel, Y.;

Developing a state water plan: Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 1978

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gates, Joseph S.; Jibson, W.N.; Herbert, L.R.; Mower, R.W.; Razem, A.C.; Cordova, R.M.; Jensen, V.L.; ReMillard, M.D.; Emett, D.C.; Sumison, C.T.; Carroll, P.A.; DeGrand, M.J.; Sandberg, G.W.

1978-01-01

This report is the fifteenth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, prepared cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Division of Water Resources, provide data to enable interested parties to keep abreast of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others (see References, p. 13), contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawals, water-level changes, and related changes in precipitation and streamflow. Supplementary data such as graphs showing chemical quality of water and maps showing water-table configuration are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas for which applicable data are available and are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions.This report includes individual discussions of selected major areas of ground-water withdrawal in the State for the calendar year 1977. Water-level fluctuations, however, are described for the period spring 1977 to spring 1978. Much of the data used in this report were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Division of Water Rights, Utah Department of Natural Resources.

Developing a state water plan: Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 1979

USGS Publications Warehouse

Price, Don; Jibson, W.N.; Contratto, P. Kay; Mower, R.W.; Steiger, Judy I.; Jensen, V.L.; ReMillard, M.D.; Emett, D.C.; Sumison, C.T.; Carroll, P.A.; Neff, L.J.; Sandberg, G.W.; Herbert, L.R.

1979-01-01

This report is the sixteenth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, prepared cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Division of Water Resources, provide data to enable interested parties to keep abreast of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawals, water-level changes, and related changes in precipitation and streamflow. Supplementary data such as graphs showing chemical quality of water and maps showing water-table configuration are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas for which applicable data are available and are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions.This report includes individual discussions of selected major areas of ground-water withdrawal in the State for the calendar year 1978. Water-level fluctuations, however, are described for the period spring 1978 to spring 1979. Much of the data used in this report were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Division of Water Rights, Utah Department of Natural Resources.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 1994

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, D.V.; Garrett, R.B.; Sory, J.D.; Burden, Carole B.; Danner, M.R.; Herbert, L.R.; Steiger, J.I.; ReMillard, M.D.; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.; Bagley, A.D.

1994-01-01

This is the thirty-first in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Division of Water Resources, provide data to enable interested parties to keep abreast of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, related changes in precipitation and streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Supplementary data, such as maps showing water-level contours, are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas for which applicable data are available and are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 1993. Water-level fluctuations and selected related data, however, are described from the spring of 1989 to the spring of 1994. Much of the data used in this report were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Divisions of Water Rights and Water Resources, Utah Department of Natural Resources.

Understanding Water-Energy-Ecology Nexus from an Integrated Earth-Human System Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Zhuang, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Both Earth and human systems exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production and ecosystem health. An integrated water model representing river processes and reservoir regulations has been developed and coupled to a land surface model and an integrated assessment model of energy, land, water, and socioeconomics to investigate the energy-water-ecology nexus in the context of climate change and water management. Simulations driven by two climate change projections following the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature in the U.S. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on hydrological droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to thermoelectricity production and future survival of juvenile Salmon. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME), a coupled Earth System Model, to enable future investigations of the energy-water-ecology nexus in the integrated Earth-Human system.

Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. water supplies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frederick, K.D.; Schwarz, G.E.

1999-01-01

A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.

Leveraging Earth Observations to Improve Data Resolution and Tracking of Sustainable Development Goals in Water Resources and Public Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Nusrat, F.; Hasan, M. A.; Fallatah, O.

2017-12-01

Water scarcity affects more than 40 per cent of the world population and is projected to rise substantially, affecting safe water and sanitation access globally. The recently released WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) 2017 report on global water and sanitation access paints a grim picture across the planet; approximately 30% people worldwide, or 2.1 billion, still lack access to safe, readily available clean water, and 60% people worldwide, or 4.5 billion ppl, lack safely managed sanitation. Meanwhile, demand for water and competition for water resources are sharply rising amid growing uncertainty of climate change and its impacts on water resources. The United Nations Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for substantially increasing water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensuring sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity, providing clean water and sanitation for all, increasing international cooperation over transboundary surface and groundwater resources (under Goal 6), as well as ending preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age, and end the epidemics of neglected tropical and water-borne diseases (under Goal 3). Data availability in developing regions, especially at the appropriate resolution in both space and time, has been a recurring problem for various technological and institutional reasons. Earth observation techniques provide the most cost-effective and encompassing tool to monitor these regions, large transboundary river basins and aquifer systems, and water resources vulnerabilities to climate change around the globe. University of Rhode Island, with US and international collaborators, is using earth observations to develop tools to analyze, monitor and support decision-makers to track their progress towards SDGs with better data resolution and accuracy. Here, we provide case studies on 1) providing safe water and sanitation access South Asia through safe water resources mapping, 2) identifying groundwater depletion rates in transboundary aquifer systems and emerging hotspots in arid Middle East, and 3) monitoring changes in hydrologic regimes of High Mountain Asia and impact on water availability in downstream riparian countries.

Exploring the impact of co-varying water availability and energy price on productivity and profitability of Alpine hydropower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Botter, Martina; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Alpine hydropower systems are experiencing dramatic changes both from the point of view of hydrological conditions, e.g., water availability and frequency of extremes events, and of energy market conditions, e.g., partial or total liberalization of the market and increasing share of renewable power sources. Scientific literature has, so far, mostly focused on the analysis of climate change impacts and associated uncertainty on hydropower operation, underlooking the consequences that socio-economic changes, e.g., energy demand and/or price changes, can have on hydropower productivity and profitability. In this work, we analyse how hydropower reservoir operation is affected by changes in both water availability and energy price. We consider stochastically downscaled climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature to simulate reservoir inflows using a physically explicit hydrological model. We consider different scenarios of energy demand and generation mix to simulate energy prices using an electricity market model, which includes different generation sources, demand sinks, and features of the transmission lines. We then use Multi-Objective optimization techniques to design the operation of hydropower reservoirs for different purposes, e.g. maximization of revenue and/or energy production. The objective of the work is to assess how the tradeoffs between the multiple operating objectives evolve under different co-varying climate change and socio-economic scenarios and to assess the adaptive capacity of the system. The modeling framework is tested on the real-world case study of the Mattmark reservoir in Switzerland.

Impacts of multiple stresses on water demand and supply across the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer A. Moore Myers; Erika C. Cohen

2008-01-01

Assessment of long-term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation ) evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow...

Examining Thought Processes to Understand the Impact of Water Conservation Messages on Attitude

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rumble, Joy N.; Lamm, Alexa J.; Martin, Emmett T.; Warner, Laura A.

2017-01-01

Water availability issues have plagued many regions around the world and is viewed as the top issue facing the world. As a result, encouraging water conservation has become a priority for agricultural communicators. Previous research suggests strategically framed messages can impact attitudes about water conservation, but whether this change is a…

Water System Adaptation to Hydrological Changes: Module 2, Stormwater Management and Sewer Performance under Intense Storms: Case Study from Lawrence, Massachusetts, U.S.A.

EPA Science Inventory

This course focuses on water system adaptation to short-term and long-term climate and hydrologic stressors that affect water availability, water quality, security, and resilience. The course is organized into 15 sequential modules. The lectures will be augmented by weekly assign...

Vertical stratification of soil water storage and release dynamics in Pacific Northwest coniferous forests.

Treesearch

J.M. Warren; F.C. Meinzer; J.R. Brooks; J.C. Domec

2005-01-01

We characterized vertical variation in the seasonal release of stored soil moisture in old-growth ponderosa pine (OG-PP, xeric), and young and old-growth Douglas-fir (Y-DF, OG-DF, mesic) forests to evaluate changes in water availability for root uptake. Soil water potential (ψ) and volumetric water content (θ...

Water2Invest: Global facility for calculating investments needed to bridge the climate-induced water gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straatsma, Menno; Droogers, Peter; Brandsma, Jairus; Buytaert, Wouter; Karssenberg, Derek; Meijer, Karen; van Aalst, Maaike; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

Decision makers responsible for climate change adaptation investments are confronted with large uncertainties regarding future water availability and water demand, as well as the investment cost required to reduce the water gap. Moreover, scientists have worked hard to increase fundamental knowledge on climate change and its impacts (climate services), while practical use of this knowledge is limited due to a lack of tools for decision support under uncertain long term future scenarios (decision services). The Water2Invest project aims are to (i) assess the joint impact of climate change and socioeconomic change on water scarcity, (ii) integrate impact and potential adaptation in one flow, (iii) prioritize adaptation options to counteract water scarcity on their financial, regional socio-economic and environmental implications, and (iv) deliver all this information in an integrated user-friendly web-based service. Global water availability is computed between 2006 and 2100 using the PCR-GLOBWB water resources model at a 6 minute spatial resolution. Climate change scenarios are based on the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that defines four CO2 emission scenarios as representative concentration pathways. Water demand is computed for agriculture, industry, domestic, and environmental requirements based on socio-economic scenarios of increase in population and gross domestic product. Using a linear programming algorithm, water is allocated on a monthly basis over the four sectors. Based on these assessments, the user can evaluate various technological and infrastructural adaptation measures to assess the investments needed to bridge the future water gap. Regional environmental and socioeconomic effects of these investments are evaluated, such as environmental flows or downstream effects. A scheme is developed to evaluate the strategies on robustness and flexibility under climate change and scenario uncertainty, and each measure is linked to possibilities for investment and financing mechanisms. The tool can be used by consultants, water authorities, non-governmental and commercial investors alike to test investment strategies, but could also be used by companies as a vehicle for advertisement water saving or crop water productivity technologies that can be evaluated on their effectiveness on the spot. We show initial results based on a preliminary study on the Middle East and North African region.

Understanding and predicting climate variations in the Middle East for sustainable water resource management and development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, Rana

Water issues are a source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. In the and region of the Middle East, water supply is not just scarce but also uncertain: It is not uncommon for annual rainfall to be as little as 60% or as much as 125% of the multiannual average. This combination of scarcity and uncertainty exacerbates the already strained economy and the already tensed political situation. The uncertainty could be alleviated if it were possible to better forecast water availability. Such forecasting is key not only for water planning and management, but also for economic policy and for political decision making. Water forecasts at multiple time scales are necessary for crop choice, aquifer operation and investments in desalination infrastructure. The unequivocal warming of the climate system adds another level of uncertainty as global and regional water cycles change. This makes the prediction of water availability an even greater challenge. Understanding the impact of climate change on precipitation can provide the information necessary for appropriate risk assessment and water planning. Unfortunately, current global circulation models (GCMs) are only able to predict long term climatic evolution at large scales but not local rainfall. The statistics of local precipitation are traditionally predicted using historical rainfall data. Obviously these data cannot anticipate changes that result from climate change. It is therefore clear that integration of the global information about climate evolution and local historical data is needed to provide the much needed predictions of regional water availability. Currently, there is no theoretical or computational framework that enables such integration for this region. In this dissertation both a conceptual framework and a computational platform for such integration are introduced. In particular, suite of models that link forecasts of climatic evolution under different CO2 emissions scenarios to observed rainfall data from local stations are developed. These are used to develop scenarios for local rainfall statistics such as average annual amounts, dry spells, wet spells and drought persistence. This suite of models can provide information that is not attainable from existing tools in terms of its spatial and temporal resolution. Specifically, the goal is to project the impact of established global climate change scenarios in this region and, how much of the change might be mitigated by proposed CO2 reduction strategies. A major problem in this enterprise is to find the best way to integrate global climatic information with local rainfall data. From the climatologic perspective the problem is to find the right teleconnections. That is, non local or global measurable phenomena that influence local rainfall in a way that could be characterized and quantified statistically. From the computational perspective the challenge is to model these subtle, nonlinear relationships and to downscale the global effects into local predictions. Climate simulations to the year 2100 under selected climate change scenarios are used. Overall, the suite of models developed and presented can be applied to answer most questions from the different water users and planners. Farmers and the irrigation community can ask "What is the probability of rain over the next week?" Policy makers can ask "How much desalination capacity will I need to meet demand 90% of the time in the climate change scenario over the next 20 years?" Aquifer managers can ask "What is the expected recharge rate of the aquifers over the next decade?" The use of climate driven answers to these questions will help the region better prepare and adapt to future shifts in water resources and availability.

Floodplain ecohydrology: Climatic, anthropogenic, and local physical controls on partitioning of water sources to riparian trees.

PubMed

Singer, Michael Bliss; Sargeant, Christopher I; Piégay, Hervé; Riquier, Jérémie; Wilson, Rob J S; Evans, Cristina M

2014-05-01

Seasonal and annual partitioning of water within river floodplains has important implications for ecohydrologic links between the water cycle and tree growth. Climatic and hydrologic shifts alter water distribution between floodplain storage reservoirs (e.g., vadose, phreatic), affecting water availability to tree roots. Water partitioning is also dependent on the physical conditions that control tree rooting depth (e.g., gravel layers that impede root growth), the sources of contributing water, the rate of water drainage, and water residence times within particular storage reservoirs. We employ instrumental climate records alongside oxygen isotopes within tree rings and regional source waters, as well as topographic data and soil depth measurements, to infer the water sources used over several decades by two co-occurring tree species within a riparian floodplain along the Rhône River in France. We find that water partitioning to riparian trees is influenced by annual (wet versus dry years) and seasonal (spring snowmelt versus spring rainfall) fluctuations in climate. This influence depends strongly on local (tree level) conditions including floodplain surface elevation and subsurface gravel layer elevation. The latter represents the upper limit of the phreatic zone and therefore controls access to shallow groundwater. The difference between them, the thickness of the vadose zone, controls total soil moisture retention capacity. These factors thus modulate the climatic influence on tree ring isotopes. Additionally, we identified growth signatures and tree ring isotope changes associated with recent restoration of minimum streamflows in the Rhône, which made new phreatic water sources available to some trees in otherwise dry years. Water shifts due to climatic fluctuations between floodplain storage reservoirsAnthropogenic changes to hydrology directly impact water available to treesEcohydrologic approaches to integration of hydrology afford new possibilities.

Floodplain ecohydrology: Climatic, anthropogenic, and local physical controls on partitioning of water sources to riparian trees

PubMed Central

Singer, Michael Bliss; Sargeant, Christopher I; Piégay, Hervé; Riquier, Jérémie; Wilson, Rob J S; Evans, Cristina M

2014-01-01

Seasonal and annual partitioning of water within river floodplains has important implications for ecohydrologic links between the water cycle and tree growth. Climatic and hydrologic shifts alter water distribution between floodplain storage reservoirs (e.g., vadose, phreatic), affecting water availability to tree roots. Water partitioning is also dependent on the physical conditions that control tree rooting depth (e.g., gravel layers that impede root growth), the sources of contributing water, the rate of water drainage, and water residence times within particular storage reservoirs. We employ instrumental climate records alongside oxygen isotopes within tree rings and regional source waters, as well as topographic data and soil depth measurements, to infer the water sources used over several decades by two co-occurring tree species within a riparian floodplain along the Rhône River in France. We find that water partitioning to riparian trees is influenced by annual (wet versus dry years) and seasonal (spring snowmelt versus spring rainfall) fluctuations in climate. This influence depends strongly on local (tree level) conditions including floodplain surface elevation and subsurface gravel layer elevation. The latter represents the upper limit of the phreatic zone and therefore controls access to shallow groundwater. The difference between them, the thickness of the vadose zone, controls total soil moisture retention capacity. These factors thus modulate the climatic influence on tree ring isotopes. Additionally, we identified growth signatures and tree ring isotope changes associated with recent restoration of minimum streamflows in the Rhône, which made new phreatic water sources available to some trees in otherwise dry years. Key Points Water shifts due to climatic fluctuations between floodplain storage reservoirs Anthropogenic changes to hydrology directly impact water available to trees Ecohydrologic approaches to integration of hydrology afford new possibilities PMID:25506099

Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

2014-12-01

Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in regions where human activity is significant, even if it is under the worst-case RCP8.5 scenario. More realistic assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and the cost estimation of how much economic investments are needed to maintain the current level of the risks of water scarcity are necessary.

The Resilience of Microbial Community under Drying and Rewetting Cycles of Three Forest Soils.

PubMed

Zhou, Xue; Fornara, Dario; Ikenaga, Makoto; Akagi, Isao; Zhang, Ruifu; Jia, Zhongjun

2016-01-01

Forest soil ecosystems are associated with large pools and fluxes of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), which could be strongly affected by variation in rainfall events under current climate change. Understanding how dry and wet cycle events might influence the metabolic state of indigenous soil microbes is crucial for predicting forest soil responses to environmental change. We used 454 pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR to address how present (DNA-based) and potentially active (RNA-based) soil bacterial communities might response to the changes in water availability across three different forest types located in two continents (Africa and Asia) under controlled drying and rewetting cycles. Sequencing of rRNA gene and transcript indicated that Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Acidobacteria were the most responsive phyla to changes in water availability. We defined the ratio of rRNA transcript to rRNA gene abundance as a key indicator of potential microbial activity and we found that this ratio was increased following soil dry-down process whereas it decreased after soil rewetting. Following rewetting Crenarchaeota-like 16S rRNA gene transcript increased in some forest soils and this was linked to increases in soil nitrate levels suggesting greater nitrification rates under higher soil water availability. Changes in the relative abundance of (1) different microbial phyla and classes, and (2) 16S and amoA genes were found to be site- and taxa-specific and might have been driven by different life-strategies. Overall, we found that, after rewetting, the structure of the present and potentially active bacterial community structure as well as the abundance of bacterial (16S), archaeal (16S) and ammonia oxidizers (amoA), all returned to pre-dry-down levels. This suggests that microbial taxa have the ability to recover from desiccation, a critical response, which will contribute to maintaining microbial biodiversity in harsh ecosystems under environmental perturbations, such as significant changes in water availability.

The Resilience of Microbial Community under Drying and Rewetting Cycles of Three Forest Soils

PubMed Central

Zhou, Xue; Fornara, Dario; Ikenaga, Makoto; Akagi, Isao; Zhang, Ruifu; Jia, Zhongjun

2016-01-01

Forest soil ecosystems are associated with large pools and fluxes of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), which could be strongly affected by variation in rainfall events under current climate change. Understanding how dry and wet cycle events might influence the metabolic state of indigenous soil microbes is crucial for predicting forest soil responses to environmental change. We used 454 pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR to address how present (DNA-based) and potentially active (RNA-based) soil bacterial communities might response to the changes in water availability across three different forest types located in two continents (Africa and Asia) under controlled drying and rewetting cycles. Sequencing of rRNA gene and transcript indicated that Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Acidobacteria were the most responsive phyla to changes in water availability. We defined the ratio of rRNA transcript to rRNA gene abundance as a key indicator of potential microbial activity and we found that this ratio was increased following soil dry-down process whereas it decreased after soil rewetting. Following rewetting Crenarchaeota-like 16S rRNA gene transcript increased in some forest soils and this was linked to increases in soil nitrate levels suggesting greater nitrification rates under higher soil water availability. Changes in the relative abundance of (1) different microbial phyla and classes, and (2) 16S and amoA genes were found to be site- and taxa-specific and might have been driven by different life-strategies. Overall, we found that, after rewetting, the structure of the present and potentially active bacterial community structure as well as the abundance of bacterial (16S), archaeal (16S) and ammonia oxidizers (amoA), all returned to pre-dry-down levels. This suggests that microbial taxa have the ability to recover from desiccation, a critical response, which will contribute to maintaining microbial biodiversity in harsh ecosystems under environmental perturbations, such as significant changes in water availability. PMID:27486444

Waters Without Borders: Scarcity and the Future of State Interactions over Shared Water Resources

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

urbanization, increasing per capita consumption (associated with globalization and economic development), pollution , and climate change will exacerbate...Standards of Living, and Pollution : Water is fundamental to ensuring an adequate food supply. Agricultural irrigation accounts for 70% of fresh water...Agricultural run-off is also a major source of pollution reducing the quality and availability of drinking water. Energy: Water is also needed for the

The evaluation of the climate change effects on maize and fennel cultivation by means of an hydrological physically based model: the case study of an irrigated district of southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, M. S.; Basile, A.; De Lorenzi, F.; Fiorentino, N.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

The effect of climate change on irrigated agricultural systems will be different from area to area depending on some factors as: (i) water availability, (ii) crop water demand (iii) soil hydrological behavior and (iv) irrigation management strategy. The adaptation of irrigated crop systems to future climate change can be supported by physically based model which simulate the water and heat fluxes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effects of climate change on the heat and water balance of a maize-fennel rotation. This was applied to a on-demand irrigation district of Southern Italy ("Destra Sele", Campania Region, 22.645 ha). Two climate scenarios were considered, current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050), the latter constructed by applying statistical downscaling to GCMs scenarios. For each climate scenario the soil moisture regime of the selected study area was calculated by means of a simulation model of the soil-water-atmosphere system (SWAP). Synthetic indicators of the soil water regimes (e.g., crop water stress index - CWSI, available water content) have been calculated and impacts evaluated taking into account the yield response functions to water availability of different cultivars. Different irrigation delivering strategies were also simulated. The hydrological model SWAP was applied to the representative soils of the whole area (20 soil units) for which the soil hydraulic properties were derived by means of pedo-transfer function (HYPRES) tested and validated on the typical soils in the study area. Upper boundary conditions were derived from two climate scenarios, i.e. current and future. Unit gradient in soil water potential was set as lower boundary condition. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were derived from field experiments, in the same area, where the SWAP model was calibrated and validated. The results obtained have shown a significant increase of CWSI in the future climate scenario, and some spatial patterns strongly influenced by the soils characteristics. Adaptability of different maize cultivars has been evaluated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: Plant Adaptative capacity, SWAP, Climate changes, Maize, Fennel

40 CFR 170.250 - Decontamination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... vehicular access: (i) The soap, single-use towels, clean change of clothing, and water may be at the nearest... handler employer shall provide handlers with enough water for routine washing, for emergency eyeflushing, and for washing the entire body in case of an emergency. At all times when the water is available to...

40 CFR 170.250 - Decontamination.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... vehicular access: (i) The soap, single-use towels, clean change of clothing, and water may be at the nearest... handler employer shall provide handlers with enough water for routine washing, for emergency eyeflushing, and for washing the entire body in case of an emergency. At all times when the water is available to...

Probabilistic Water Availability Prediction in the Rio Grande Basin using Large-scale Circulation Indices as Precursor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khedun, C. P.; Mishra, A. K.; Giardino, J. R.; Singh, V. P.

2011-12-01

Hydrometeorological conditions, and therefore water availability, is affected by large-scale circulation indices. In the Rio Grande, which is a transboundary basin shared between the United States and Mexico, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence local hydrological conditions. Different sub-regions of the basin exhibit varying degrees of correlation, but in general, an increase (decrease) in runoff during El Niños (La Niñas) is noted. Positive PDO enhances the effect of El Niño and dampens the negative effect of La Niña, and when it is in its neutral/transition phase, La Niña dominates climatic conditions and reduces water availability. Further, lags of up to 3 months have been found between ENSO and precipitation in the basin. We hypothesize that (1) a trivariate statistical relationship can be established between the two climate indices and water availability, and (2) the relationship can be used to predict water availability based on projected PDO and ENSO conditions. We use copula to establish the dependence between climate indices and water availability. Water availability is generated from Noah land surface model (LSM), forced with the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). The model is run within NASA GSFC's Land Information System. LSM generated runoff gives a more realistic picture of available surface water as it is not affected by anthropogenic changes, such as the construction of dams, diversions, and other land use land cover changes, which may obscure climatic influences. Marginals from climate indices and runoff are from different distribution families, thus conventional functional forms of multivariate frequency distributions cannot be employed. Copulas offer a viable alternative as marginals from different families can be combined into a joint distribution. Uncertainties in the statistical relationship can be determined and the statistical model can be used for prediction purposes. The outcome of the study can provide advanced warning on the expected state of surface water, based on projected ENSO and PDO conditions. Such warning may help trigger drought management plans in both the US and Mexico for example, and ensure the long-term sustainable management of water in the basin.

Integrating Agent Models of Subsistence Farming With Dynamic Models of Water Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bithell, M.; Brasington, J.

2004-12-01

Subsistence farming communities are dependent on the landscape to provide the resource base upon which their societies can be built. A key component of this is the role of climate, and the feedback between rainfall, crop growth and land clearance, and their coupling to the hydrological cycle. Temporal fluctuations in rainfall on timescales from annual through to decadal and longer, and the associated changes in in the spatial distribution of water availability mediated by the soil-type, slope and landcover determine the locations within the landscape that can support agriculture, and control sustainability of farming practices. We seek to make an integrated modelling system to represent land use change by coupling an agent based model of subsistence farming, and the associated exploitation of natural resources, to a realistic representation of the hydrology at the catchment scale, using TOPMODEL to map the spatial distribution of crop water stress for given time-series of rainfall. In this way we can, for example, investigate how demographic changes and associated removal of forest cover influence the possibilities for field locations within the catchment, through changes in ground water availability. The framework for this modelling exercise will be presented and preliminary results from this system will be discussed.

Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany.

PubMed

Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Svoboda, Nikolai; Schröder, Winfried

2016-01-15

The question whether global climate change invalidates the efficiency of established land use practice cannot be answered without systemic considerations on a region specific basis. In this context plant water availability and irrigation requirements, respectively, were investigated in Northern Germany. The regions under investigation--Diepholz, Uelzen, Fläming and Oder-Spree--represent a climatic gradient with increasing continentality from West to East. Besides regional climatic variation and climate change, soil conditions and crop management differ on the regional scale. In the model regions, temporal seasonal droughts influence crop success already today, but on different levels of intensity depending mainly on climate conditions. By linking soil water holding capacities, crop management data and calculations of evapotranspiration and precipitation from the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 irrigation requirements for maintaining crop productivity were estimated for the years 1991 to 2070. Results suggest that water requirement for crop irrigation is likely to increase with considerable regional variation. For some of the regions, irrigation requirements might increase to such an extent that the established regional agricultural practice might be hard to retain. Where water availability is limited, agricultural practice, like management and cultivated crop spectrum, has to be changed to deal with the new challenges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Peatland Plant Functional Types and Altered Hydrology on Porewater Chemistry in a Northern Bog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, A.; Kane, E. S.; Lilleskov, E. A.; Kolka, R. K.; Chimner, R. A.; Potvin, L. R.; Romanowicz, K. J.

2012-12-01

Northern wetlands, peatlands in particular, have been shown to store around 30% of the world's soil carbon and thus play a significant role in the carbon cycle of our planet. Carbon accumulation in peatlands is the result of retarded decomposition due to low oxygen availability in these water-logged environments. Changes in our planet's climate cycles are altering peatland hydrology and vegetation communities, resulting in changes in their ability to sequester carbon through increases in peat carbon oxidation and mineralization. To date, the consequences of altered hydrology and changes in vegetation communities, and their interactive effects on carbon storage, are not well understood. We have initiated a research plan that assesses the varying roles that water table variation and vegetation communities have on extracellular enzyme activity and labile carbon availability in porewater from an ombrotrophic bog. We assessed the effects of plant functional group (ericaceous shrubs, sedges, and bryophytes) and water table position on biogeochemical processes. Specifically, we measured dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), enzyme activity, organic acids, anions and cations, spectral indexes of aromaticity, and phenolic content in addressing our hypotheses of responses to climate change drivers. Research on these components will evaluate the relative importance of biology, water table, and their interactive affects on the porewater quality of peatlands. We hypothesized that oxygen availability will strongly influence decomposition in these systems but that this response will largely be mediated by changes in plant community and the enzymes associated with root exudates and mycorrhizae. To date, our data confirm vegetation and water table related patterns. Acetate and propionate concentrations in the sedge-dominated communities dropped significantly with depth and drainage, relative to the control and ericaceous treatments, which likely reflects changes in redox potential owing to physiological differences in sedges which contain aerenchyma cell, and a reduction in the products of anaerobic metabolism. DOC increased in the lowered water table treatments in all vegetation community types. Enzymatic activities have changed in response to water table level and vegetation community. While we have not detected significant levels of peroxidase enzymes in porewater, initial results indicate that hydrolase enzyme activities were higher in the sedge-dominated communities with a lowered water table. Through this research, we are hoping to advance our knowledge of the drivers behind peatland biogeochemistry and how ombrotrophic peat systems may respond to climate change influences.

Toward hydro-social modeling: Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models (Santa River, Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, Mark; Baraer, Michel; Mark, Bryan G.; French, Adam; Bury, Jeffrey; Young, Kenneth R.; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.

2014-10-01

Glacier shrinkage caused by climate change is likely to trigger diminished and less consistent stream flow in glacier-fed watersheds worldwide. To understand, model, and adapt to these climate-glacier-water changes, it is vital to integrate the analysis of both water availability (the domain of hydrologists) and water use (the focus for social scientists). Drawn from a case study of the Santa River watershed below Peru’s glaciated Cordillera Blanca mountain range, this paper provides a holistic hydro-social framework that identifies five major human variables critical to hydrological modeling because these forces have profoundly influenced water use over the last 60 years: (1) political agendas and economic development; (2) governance: laws and institutions; (3) technology and engineering; (4) land and resource use; and (5) societal responses. Notable shifts in Santa River water use-including major expansions in hydroelectricity generation, large-scale irrigation projects, and other land and resource-use practices-did not necessarily stem from changing glacier runoff or hydrologic shifts, but rather from these human variables. Ultimately, then, water usage is not predictable based on water availability alone. Glacier runoff conforms to certain expected trends predicted by models of progressively reduced glacier storage. However, societal forces establish the legal, economic, political, cultural, and social drivers that actually shape water usage patterns via human modification of watershed dynamics. This hydro-social framework has widespread implications for hydrological modeling in glaciated watersheds from the Andes and Alps to the Himalaya and Tien Shan, as well as for the development of climate change adaptation plans.

Climate change may affect fish through an interaction of parental and juvenile environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donelson, J. M.; Munday, P. L.; McCormick, M. I.

2012-09-01

Changes to tropical sea surface temperature and plankton communities are expected to occur over the next 100 years due to climate change. There is a limited understanding of how these environmental changes are likely to impact coral reef fishes, especially in terms of population replenishment through the quality of progeny produced. The present study investigated the effect that elevated sea water temperature and changes to food availability may have on the production of offspring by the reef fish Acanthochromis polyacanthus (Pomacentridae), as well as the performance of progeny in environments of varying food availability. An orthogonal design of three water temperatures and two food availabilities (high and low ration) was used, with water temperatures being the current-day average for the collection location (28.5 °C), +1.5 °C (30.0 °C) and +3.0 °C (31.5 °C), representing likely temperatures by 2100. Generally, an increase in the water temperature for adults resulted in a reduction in the size, weight and amount of yolk possessed by newly hatched offspring. Offspring whose parents were maintained under elevated temperature (30.0 °C high ration) had lower survival than offspring produced by parents at the current-day temperature (28.5 °C high ration) at 15 days post-hatching, but only when juveniles were reared under conditions of low food availability. In contrast, by 30 days post-hatching, the growth and condition of these offspring produced by parents held under elevated temperature (30.0 °C high ration) were the best of all treatment groups in all levels of juvenile food availability. This result illustrates the potential for initial parental effects to be modified by compensatory growth early in life (within 1 month) and that parental effects are not necessarily long lasting. These findings suggest that the performance of juvenile reef fish in future ocean conditions may not only depend on initial parental effects, but the interaction between their parentally mediated phenotype and their present food availability.

Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Averyt, K.

2014-05-01

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact onmore » national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states that purchase fewer water rights and obtain a greater share from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.« less

Groundwater conditions in Utah, spring of 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.

2011-01-01

This is the forty-eighth in a series of annual reports that describe groundwater conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing groundwater conditions. This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, groundwater withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of groundwater. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas that are important to a discussion of changing groundwater conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of groundwater development in the State for calendar year 2010. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Water Quality. This report is also available online at http:// www.waterrights.utah.gov/techinfo/ and http://ut.water.usgs. gov/publications/GW2011.pdf. Groundwater conditions in Utah for calendar year 2009 are reported in Burden and others (2010) and available online at http://ut.water.usgs.gov/ publications/GW2010.pdf.Analytical results associated with water samples collected from each area of groundwater development were compared to State of Utah Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) and secondary drinking-water standards of routinely measureable substances present in water supplies. The MCLs and secondary drinking-water standards can be accessed online at http://www.rules.utah.gov/publicat/code/r309/r309-200. htm#T5. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) drinking-water standards can be accessed at http://www.epa. gov/safewater/mcl.html#mcls. Maximum Contaminant Levels and secondary drinking-water standards were developed for public water systems and do not apply to the majority of wells sampled during this study.

Assessment of Agricultural Water Management in Punjab, India using Bayesian Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; Sidhu, R.

2013-12-01

The success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India is threatened by the declining water table (approx. 1 m/yr). Punjab, a major agricultural supplier for the rest of India, supports irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. Groundwater development in many districts is greater than 200% the annual recharge rate. The hydrologic data required to complete a mass-balance model are not available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements. Using the known values of precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we solve for each unknown parameter (often a coefficient) using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Results provide regional estimates of irrigation requirements and groundwater recharge rates under observed climate conditions (1972 to 2002). Model results are used to estimate future water availability and demand to help inform agriculture management decisions under projected climate conditions. We find that changing cropping patterns for the region can maintain food production while balancing groundwater pumping with natural recharge. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where agricultural water management is required to resolve competition between food security and changing resource availability.

Canopy management in rainfed vineyards (cv. Tempranillo) for optimising water use and enhancing wine quality.

PubMed

Pascual, Miquel; Romero, María-Paz; Rufat, Josep; Villar, Josep M

2015-12-01

Rainfed viticulture, mainly in semi-arid environments, is limited by environmental variability, particularly precipitation and its seasonal distribution, and soil water availability, thus ultimately determining the final quality of grape and wine. Studies on the feasibility of practices such as canopy management to adapt plant growth and yield to soil water availability open up possibilities to preserve wine quality and reinforce the characteristics of the terroir. Principal components analysis was used to identify the relationships between a large set of variables, including soil, plant, canopy management, and wine characteristics. Canopy management was found to have a predominant influence on plant response to soil water by modifying plant water status, changing the amino acid profile in berries and, concomitantly, altering the sensorial attributes of the wine obtained. Grapevine canopy management strategies, such as reiterate shoot trimming to restrict growth during early phases, are effective in adapting plant response to soil water availability. Such strategies affect berry and wine quality, mainly the amino acid profile and sensorial attributes of the wine, without changing yield or grape harvest quality control parameters. Also, in such conditions, nitrogen does not make a significant contribution to grapevine growth or yield or to grape quality. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

A National Climate Change Adaptation Network for Protecting Water Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, A.; Sauchyn, D.; Byrne, J. M.

2009-12-01

Water security and resource-dependent community-survival are being increasingly challenged as a consequence of climate change, and it is urgent that we plan now for the security of our water supplies which support our lives and livelihoods. However, the range of impacts of climate change on water availability, and the consequent environmental and human adaptations that are required, is so complex and serious that it will take the combined work of natural, health and social scientists working with industries and communities to solve them. Networks are needed that will identify crucial water issues under climate change at a range of scales in order to provide regionally-sensitive, solutions-oriented research and adaptation. We suggest national and supra-national water availability and community sustainability issues must be addressed by multidisciplinary research and adaptation networks. The work must be driven by a bottom-up research paradigm — science in the service of community and governance. We suggest that interdisciplinary teams of researchers, in partnership with community decision makers and local industries, are the best means to develop solutions as communities attempt to address future water demands, protect their homes from infrastructure damage, and meet their food, drinking water, and other essential resource requirements. The intention is to cover: the impact of climate change on Canadian natural resources, both marine and terrestrial; issues of long-term sustainability and resilience in human communities and the environments in which they are embedded; the making and moving of knowledge, be that between members of Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities, researchers of different disciplines, communities, industry, policymakers and the academy and the crucial involvement of the various orders of government in the response to water problems, under conditions of heightened uncertainty. Such an adaptation network must include a national communications strategy that will ensure widespread visibility of the network’s activities and findings and general public awareness-raising regarding water challenges and opportunities, including accessible web infrastructure and printed materials and communication with key organizations.

Shallow ground-water conditions, Tom Green County, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, J.N.

1986-01-01

Pollution from oil-field activities may affect the quality of water in some isolated wells and in some areas in the county. No historical records are available for determining any changes in pesticides, minor elements, or bacteria.

Preparing for Future Water Resources Conflicts through Climate Change Adaptation Planning: A Case Study in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehlert, B. B.; Neumann, J. E.; Strzepek, K.; Sutton, W.; Srivastava, J.

2011-12-01

Uncertainties posed by climate change and rapidly rising global water demand suggest that existing conflicts over water resources are likely to be exacerbated and new conflicts will appear where little or no conflict occurs today. Successfully planning for and preventing conflicts first requires a sound scientific understanding of the timing, location, and magnitude of water resource shortfalls, identification of the most appropriate climate adaptation options based on multiple criteria, and development of broad, multi-level consensus within the affected community. We recently applied this approach in a World Bank-funded adaptation assessment for the agricultural sectors of four countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia-Albania, Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan. For each major basin, we first used a hydrological model to project changes in water availability through 2050 under country-specific high, medium, and low climate impact scenarios. Next, under the three climate scenarios, we projected changes in agricultural water demand using a crop model (i.e., AquaCrop and DSSAT), and changes in water demand in other sectors based on population projections and sectoral forecasts of changes in per capita use. We incorporated these water availability and demand projections-along with other characteristics of the water system such as water supply priorities, environmental and transboundary flow requirements, irrigation efficiency, and reservoir locations and volumes-into a monthly integrated water resource planning tool (the Water Evaluation And Planning tool, or WEAP) to generate projected unmet water demand under each climate scenario and to each sector through 2050. The findings suggest that the agricultural sector in each country (except the relatively water-rich Albania) would experience significant unmet water demands, up to 52 percent in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya River basins of Uzbekistan. Potential adaptation responses to address unmet water demands-such as improving farm and basin-level irrigation efficiency -were evaluated using multiple approaches, including participatory farmer consultations, modeling of net economic benefits, and expert assessment. Recommendations were further refined through consensus building discussions among stakeholders at National Conferences. By using sound analytical approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change, and by consulting government ministries, in-country scientific and academic institutions, and farmers, the final sets of recommendations have gained wide support within the countries and have become strong candidates for multilateral investment. The work also provides a starting point for resolving transboundary conflicts between countries, including the existing disputes over the Amu Darya River between Uzbekistan and upstream Tajikistan, and between Macedonia and downstream Greece over the Vardar-Axios River.

Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani, Reza; Akhond-Ali, Ali-Mohammad; Roozbahani, Abbas; Fattahi, Rouhollah

2017-08-01

Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025-2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.

Importance of return flow as a component of water use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trotta, L.C.; Horn, M.S.

1990-01-01

Understanding the relation between the hydrologjc cycle and water use is important for effective water-resources management. The hydrologic cycle is the natural pathway of water from evaporation to precipitation to infiltration or runoff and to storage from which evaporation can again occur. The science of water use is the study of human influences on the hydrologic cycle. Human activities affect the hydrologic cycle by changing the quantity, distribution, and quality of available water. Quantifying return flow is useful to water managers in evaluating such changes. Return flow is often thought of as what runs down the drain, or what is leftover after the water's purpose has been served. As innocuous as that may sound, return flow plays a significant part in the overall water-use picture.

Soil moisture and biogeochemical factors influence the distribution of annual Bromus species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Stark, John Thomas; Rau, Benjamin; Allen, Edith B.; Phillips, Sue

2016-01-01

Abiotic factors have a strong influence on where annual Bromus species are found. At the large regional scale, temperature and precipitation extremes determine the boundaries of Bromusoccurrence. At the more local scale, soil characteristics and climate influence distribution, cover, and performance. In hot, dry, summer-rainfall-dominated deserts (Sonoran, Chihuahuan), little or noBromus is found, likely due to timing or amount of soil moisture relative to Bromus phenology. In hot, winter-rainfall-dominated deserts (parts of the Mojave Desert), Bromus rubens is widespread and correlated with high phosphorus availability. It also responds positively to additions of nitrogen alone or with phosphorus. On the Colorado Plateau, with higher soil moisture availability, factors limiting Bromus tectorum populations vary with life stage: phosphorus and water limit germination, potassium and the potassium/magnesium ratio affect winter performance, and water and potassium/magnesium affect spring performance. Controlling nutrients also change with elevation. In cooler deserts with winter precipitation (Great Basin, Columbia Plateau) and thus even greater soil moisture availability, B. tectorum populations are controlled by nitrogen, phosphorus, or potassium. Experimental nitrogen additions stimulate Bromus performance. The reason for different nutrients limiting in dissimilar climatic regions is not known, but it is likely that site conditions such as soil texture (as it affects water and nutrient availability), organic matter, and/or chemistry interact in a manner that regulates nutrient availability and limitations. Under future drier, hotter conditions,Bromus distribution is likely to change due to changes in the interaction between moisture and nutrient availability.

Environmental Impact Statement Space Shuttle Program, Vandenberg AFB, California. Supplement.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-07-01

area, will induce significant population growth and aggravate current housing and water availability problems . Six appendices offer more detailed...impacts have been reevaluated in light of recent changes in the p-ogram, research studies in problem areas, and newly- acquired knowledge of the...aggravate short-term problems concerning housing, and the quality and quantity of available water. x 7. PERMITS AND OTHER ENTITLEMENTS Air quality

Linking the physical and the socio-economic compartments of an integrated water and land use management model on a river basin scale using an object-oriented water supply model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthel, Roland; Nickel, Darla; Meleg, Alejandro; Trifkovic, Aleksandar; Braun, Juergen

Within the framework of the research project ‘GLOWA-Danube’, a model of the water supply sector has been developed. GLOWA-Danube investigates long-term changes in the water cycle of the Upper Danube river basin in light of global change. For this purpose, the decision support system DANUBIA, comprising 15 fully coupled models, has been developed. Within DANUBIA the water supply model (‘WaterSupply’) forms the link between various physical models determining water quality and availability and several socio-economic models determining water consumption and demand. Having a central focus on public drinking water supply, its purpose is to correctly simulate the present day system of water extraction and distribution and the related costs, but also to allow meaningful response to possible future changes of boundary conditions, first and foremost changes in water demand or water availability and quality. Response mechanisms are also envisioned for changes in political and economic boundary conditions, and advances in technology. The model will be used locate critical regions which could experience water stress in the future, but does not aim to find the appropriate solutions or to predict the optimal organisation of water supply in the Danube Basin under such changing conditions. In the object-oriented model structure, both water supply companies (WSC) and communities are represented by main classes. Both classes have a limited view and knowledge of their environment. A community knows where and how much water is consumed and from which WSC it is served. A WSC possesses information regarding extraction sites and water rights, raw water quality and potential collaborating WSC. The WSC can perform actions that are different from ‘business as usual’. These deviations from their usual behaviour can be interpreted by decision makers but should not be regarded as a replacement for the decision-making process itself. The model is conceptualised using object-oriented concepts of the Unified Modelling Language (UML) and is implemented in JAVA. This short overview is meant to answer key questions such as why and how WaterSupply was implemented, what is unique and new about the model and what are the general lessons learned and the added value with regard to integrated modelling on a river basin scale. It is obvious that in the attempt to answer these questions it is not possible to satisfy experts from all the relevant related fields, which include computer sciences, economy, behavioural science and not least water supply engineering and hydrology.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Enright, Michael; Danner, M.R.; Fisher, M.J.; Haraden, Peter L.; Kenney, T.A.; Wilkowske, C.D.; Eacret, Robert J.; Downhour, Paul; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.

2002-01-01

This is the thirty-ninth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2001. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights and Division of Water Resources.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Spangler, L.E.; Sory, J.D.; Eacret, Robert J.; Kenney, T.A.; Johnson, K.K.; Loving, B.L.; Brockner, S.J.; Danner, M.R.; Downhour, Paul; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.; Fisher, M.J.

1999-01-01

This is the thirty-sixth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 1998. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Divisions of Water Rights and Water Resources.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Sory, J.D.; Danner, M.R.; Fisher, M.J.; Haraden, Peter L.; Kenney, T.A.; Eacret, Robert J.; Downhour, Paul; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.

2001-01-01

This is the thirty-eighth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2000. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights and Division of Water Resources.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Enright, Michael; Danner, M.R.; Fisher, M.J.; Haraden, Peter L.; Kenney, T.A.; Wilkowske, C.D.; Eacret, Robert J.; Downhour, Paul; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.

2003-01-01

This is the fortieth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2002. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights and Division of Water Resources.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Sory, J.D.; Danner, M.R.; Johnson, K.K.; Kenny, T.A.; Brockner, S.J.; Eacret, Robert J.; Downhour, Paul; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.; Fisher, M.J.

2000-01-01

This is the thirty-seventh in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 1999. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Divisions of Water Rights and Water Resources.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burden, Carole B.; Allen, David V.; Danner, M.R.; Walzem, Vince; Cillessen, J.L.; Kenney, T.A.; Wilkowske, C.D.; Eacret, Robert J.; Downhour, Paul; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.; Fisher, M.J.

2004-01-01

This is the forty-first in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources and Division of Water Rights, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 2003. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights and Division of Water Resources.

The Tropical Andes without Snow and Ice - Impacts, Uncertainties and Challenges Ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M. F.

2015-12-01

Climate change has lead to significant glacier retreat in the tropical Andes over the past several decades. Despite the apparent hiatus in warming along the Pacific coast, temperature continues to rise at higher elevations, putting smaller glaciers in lower lying mountain ranges on the verge of complete disappearance. As a result water availability and water quality in glacier-fed river systems will be reduced during the dry season. The lack of a seasonal snow cover in the tropics, which provides for an additional hydrologic buffer in mid-latitude mountain ranges, further exacerbates the situation. Altered precipitation regimes, including changes in total precipitation amount, changes in the rain/snow ratio, or changes in the wet season length will also affect water availability, but projections of these changes are currently fraught with uncertainty. The importance of glacier-fed water supply varies between regions and depends on the presence of other water regulators (reservoirs, wetlands), the length of the dry season and the trajectory of water demand (population growth, expanding economic activities). Here we will review downscaled CMIP5 model results for some of these mountain ranges and discuss the consequences of future warming and projected precipitation changes for the Andean cryosphere, while considering uncertainties associated with downscaling methodology, model dependency and choice of emission scenario. Adaptation strategies will be evaluated in the light of these results, discussing the need to pursue no-regret strategies, when implementing water conservation measures. Lessons learned from past adaptation and capacity building activities in the region will be discussed, emphasizing a) the need to strengthen the institutional standing of authorities involved in glacier research, b) alignment of capacity building and international cooperation with the national and regional needs and c) improvements to long-term climate and glacier monitoring programs in the region, allowing for a more adequate future management of water resources.

Characterizing Seasonal Drought, Water Supply Pattern and Their Impact on Vegetation Growth Using Satellite Soil Moisture Data, GRACE Water Storage and Precipitation Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A, G.; Velicogna, I.; Kimball, J. S.; Du, J.; Kim, Y.; Njoku, E. G.; Colliander, A.

2016-12-01

We combine soil moisture (SM) data from AMSR-E, AMSR-2 and SMAP, terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes from GRACE and precipitation measurements from GPCP to delineate and characterize drought and water supply pattern and its impact on vegetation growth. GRACE TWS provides spatially continuous observations of total terrestrial water storage changes and regional drought extent, persistence and severity, while satellite derived soil moisture estimates provide enhanced delineation of plant-available soil moisture. Together these data provide complementary metrics quantifying available plant water supply and have important implications for water resource management. We use these data to investigate the supply changes from different water components in relation to satellite based vegetation productivity metrics from MODIS, before, during and following the major drought events observed in the continental US during the past 13 years. We observe consistent trends and significant correlations between monthly time series of TWS, SM, and vegetation productivity. In Texas and surrounding semi-arid areas, we find that the spatial pattern of the vegetation-moisture relation follows the gradient in mean annual precipitation. In Texas, GRACE TWS and surface SM show strong coupling and similar characteristic time scale in relatively normal years, while during the 2011 onward hydrological drought, GRACE TWS manifests a longer time scale than that of surface SM, implying stronger drought persistence in deeper water storage. In the Missouri watershed, we find a spatially varying vegetation-moisture relationship where in the drier northwestern portion of the basin, the inter-annual variability in summer vegetation productivity is closely associated with changes in carry-on GRACE TWS from spring, whereas in the moist southeastern portion of the basin, summer precipitation is the dominant controlling factor on vegetation growth.

Identifying Hotspots in Land and Water Resource Uses on the Way towards Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzo, A.; Havlik, P.; Van Dijk, M.; Leclere, D.

2017-12-01

Agriculture plays a key role in achieving adequate food, water, and energy security (as summarized in the Sustainable Development Goals SDGs) as populations grow and incomes rise. Yet, agriculture is confronted with an enormous challenge to produce more using less. Land and water resources are projected to be strongly affected by climate change demand and agriculture faces growing competition in the demand for these resources. To formulate policies that contribute to achieving the SDGs, policy makers need assessments that can anticipate and navigate the trade-offs within the water/land/energy domain. Assessments that identify locations or hotspots where trade-offs between the multiple, competing users of resources may exist must consider both the local scale impacts of resource use as well as regional scale socioeconomic trends, policies, and international markets that further contribute to or mitigate the impacts of resource trade-offs. In this study, we quantify impacts of increased pressure on the land system to provide agricultural and bioenergy products under increasingly scarce water resources using a global economic and land use model, GLOBIOM. We model the supply and demand of agricultural products at a high spatial resolution in an integrated approach that considers the impacts of global change (socioeconomic and climatic) on the biophysical availability and the growing competition of land and water. We also developed a biodiversity module that relates changes in land uses to changes in local species richness and global species extinction risk. We find that water available for agriculture and freshwater ecosystems decreases due to climate change and growing demand from other sectors (domestic, energy and industry) (Fig 1). Climate change impacts will limit areas suitable for irrigation and may lead to an expansion of rainfed areas in biodiverse areas. Impacts on food security from climate change are significant in some regions (SSA and SA) and policies that protect environmental stream flows compound that effect (Fig 2).

Climate change and the water cycle in newly irrigated areas.

PubMed

Abrahão, Raphael; García-Garizábal, Iker; Merchán, Daniel; Causapé, Jesús

2015-02-01

Climate change is affecting agriculture doubly: evapotranspiration is increasing due to increments in temperature while the availability of water resources is decreasing. Furthermore, irrigated areas are expanding worldwide. In this study, the dynamics of climate change impacts on the water cycle of a newly irrigated watershed are studied through the calculation of soil water balances. The study area was a 752-ha watershed located on the left side of the Ebro river valley, in Northeast Spain. The soil water balance procedures were carried out throughout 1827 consecutive days (5 years) of hydrological and agronomical monitoring in the study area. Daily data from two agroclimatic stations were used as well. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on the water cycle considered the creation of two future climate scenarios for comparison: 2070 decade with climate change and 2070 decade without climate change. The main indicators studied were precipitation, irrigation, reference evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, drainage from the watershed, and irrigation losses. The aridity index was also applied. The results represent a baseline scenario in which adaptation measures may be included and tested to reduce the impacts of climate change in the studied area and other similar areas.

Ecohydrology of adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems: the consequences of climate change and disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.

2014-01-01

Sagebrush steppe and lodgepole pine forests are two of the most widespread vegetation types in the western United States and they play crucial roles in the hydrologic cycle of these water-limited regions. We used a process-based ecosystem water model to characterize the potential impact of climate change and disturbance (wildfire and beetle mortality) on water cycling in adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems. Despite similar climatic and topographic conditions between these ecosystems at the sites examined, lodgepole pine, and sagebrush exhibited consistent differences in water balance, notably more evaporation and drier summer soils in the sagebrush and greater transpiration and less water yield in lodgepole pine. Canopy disturbances (either fire or beetle) have dramatic impacts on water balance and availability: reducing transpiration while increasing evaporation and water yield. Results suggest that climate change may reduce snowpack, increase evaporation and transpiration, and lengthen the duration of dry soil conditions in the summer, but may have uncertain effects on drainage. Changes in the distribution of sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems as a consequence of climate change and/or altered disturbance regimes will likely alter ecosystem water balance.

Compensatory responses in plant-herbivore interactions: Impacts of insects on leaf water relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peschiutta, María L.; Bucci, Sandra J.; Scholz, Fabián G.; Goldstein, Guillermo

2016-05-01

Herbivore damage to leaves has been typically evaluated in terms of fractions of area removed; however morpho-physiological changes in the remaining tissues can occur in response to removal. We assessed the effects of partial removal of the leaf mesophyll by Caliroa cerasi (Hymenoptera) on leaf hydraulic conductance (Kleaf), vascular architecture, water relations and leaf size of three Prunus avium cultivars. The insect feeds on the leaf mesophyll leaving the vein network intact (skeletonization). Within each cultivar there were trees without infestations and trees chronically infested, at least over the last three years. Leaf size of intact leaves tended to be similar during leaf expansion before herbivore attack occurs across infested and non-infested trees. However, after herbivore attack and when the leaves were fully expanded, damaged leaves were smaller than leaves from non-infested trees. Damaged area varied between 21 and 31% depending on cultivar. The non-disruption of the vascular system together with either vein density or capacitance increased in damaged leaves resulted in similar Kleaf and stomatal conductance in infested and non-infested trees. Non-stomatal water loss from repeated leaf damage led to lower leaf water potentials in two of the infested cultivars. Lower leaf osmotic potentials and vulnerability to loss of Kleaf were observed in infested plants. Our results show that skeletonization resulted in compensatory changes in terms of water relations and hydraulics traits and in cultivar-specific physiological changes in phylogenetic related P. avium. Our findings indicate that detrimental effects of herbivory on the photosynthetic surface are counterbalanced by changes providing higher drought resistance, which has adaptive significance in ecosystems where water availability is low and furthermore where global climate changes would decrease soil water availability in the future even further.

Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

2016-12-01

With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

Impact of changes in GRACE derived terrestrial water storage on vegetation growth in Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A, G.; Velicogna, I.; Kimball, J. S.; Kim, Y.

2015-12-01

We use GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage (TWS) and ERA-interim air temperature, as proxy for available water and temperature constraints on vegetation productivity, inferred from MODIS satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), in Northern Eurasia during 2002-2011. We investigate how changes in TWS affect the correlation between NDVI and temperature during the non-frozen season. We find that vegetation growth exhibits significant spatial and temporal variability associated with varying trend in TWS and temperature. The largest NDVI gains occur over boreal forests associated with warming and wetting. The largest NDVI losses occur over grasslands in the Southwestern Ob associated with regional drying and cooling, with dominant constraint from TWS. Over grasslands and temperate forests in the Southeast Ob and South Yenisei, wetting and cooling lead to a dominant temperature constraint due to the relaxation of TWS constraints. Overall, we find significant monthly correlation of NDVI with TWS and temperature over 35% and 50% of the domain, respectively. These results indicate that water availability (TWS) plays a major role in modulating Eurasia vegetation response to temperature changes.

Leveraging this Golden Age of Remote Sensing and Modeling of Terrestrial Hydrology to Understand Water Cycling in the Water Availability Grand Challenge for North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, T. H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Stephens, G. L.

2016-12-01

We live in a time of increasing strains on our global fresh water availability due to increasing population, warming climate, changes in precipitation, and extensive depletion of groundwater supplies. At the same time, we have seen enormous growth in capabilities to remotely sense the regional to global water cycle and model complex systems with physically based frameworks. The GEWEX Water Availability Grand Challenge for North America is poised to leverage this convergence of remote sensing and modeling capabilities to answer fundamental questions on the water cycle. In particular, we envision an experiment that targets the complex and resource-critical Western US from California to just into the Great Plains, constraining physically-based hydrologic modeling with the US and international remote sensing capabilities. In particular, the last decade has seen the implementation or soon-to-be launch of water cycle missions such as GRACE and GRACE-FO for groundwater, SMAP for soil moisture, GPM for precipitation, SWOT for terrestrial surface water, and the Airborne Snow Observatory for snowpack. With the advent of convection-resolving mesoscale climate and water cycle modeling (e.g. WRF, WRF-Hydro) and mesoscale models capable of quantitative assimilation of remotely sensed data (e.g. the JPL Western States Water Mission), we can now begin to test hypotheses on the nature and changes in the water cycle of the Western US from a physical standpoint. In turn, by fusing water cycle science, water management, and ecosystem management while addressing these hypotheses, this golden age of remote sensing and modeling can bring all fields into a markedly less uncertain state of present knowledge and decadal scale forecasts.

Managing forest water quantity and quality under climate change

Treesearch

Daniel A. Marion; Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Chelcy F. Miniat; Ying Ouyang; Devendra M. Amatya; Barton D. Clinton; Paul A. Conrads; Shelby Gull Laird; Zhaohua Dai; J. Alan Clingenpeel; Yonqiang Liu; Edwin A. Roehl; Jennifer A. Moore Myers; Carl Trettin

2014-01-01

Water is a critical resource of the Southern United States and is intimately linked to other ecosystem and societal values. The South is known for its warm climate, rich water resources (Figure 9.1), and large acreage of forest lands that provide an ideal place for people to live. Indeed, water availability is central to sustaining an economy that relies on irrigation...

Effects of management on aquatic tree-hole communities in temperate forests are mediated by detritus amount and water chemistry.

PubMed

Gossner, Martin M; Lade, Peggy; Rohland, Anja; Sichardt, Nora; Kahl, Tiemo; Bauhus, Jürgen; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Petermann, Jana S

2016-01-01

Arthropod communities in water-filled tree holes may be sensitive to impacts of forest management, for example via changes in environmental conditions such as resource input. We hypothesized that increasing forest management intensity (ForMI) negatively affects arthropod abundance and richness and shifts community composition and trophic structure of tree hole communities. We predicted that this shift is caused by reduced habitat and resource availability at the forest stand scale as well as reduced tree hole size, detritus amount and changed water chemistry at the tree holes scale. We mapped 910 water-filled tree holes in two regions in Germany and studied 199 tree hole inhabiting arthropod communities. We found that increasing ForMI indeed significantly reduced arthropod abundance and richness in water-filled tree holes. The most important indirect effects of management intensity on tree hole community structure were the reduced amounts of detritus for the tree hole inhabiting organisms and changed water chemistry at the tree hole scale, both of which seem to act as a habitat filter. Although habitat availability at the forest stand scale decreased with increasing management intensity, this unexpectedly increased local arthropod abundance in individual tree holes. However, regional species richness in tree holes significantly decreased with increasing management intensity, most likely due to decreased habitat diversity. We did not find that the management-driven increase in plant diversity at the forest stand scale affected communities of individual tree holes, for example via resource availability for adults. Our results suggest that management of temperate forests has to target a number of factors at different scales to conserve diverse arthropod communities in water-filled tree holes. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Arctic lake physical processes and regimes with implications for winter water availability and management in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska.

PubMed

Jones, Benjamin M; Arp, Christopher D; Hinkel, Kenneth M; Beck, Richard A; Schmutz, Joel A; Winston, Barry

2009-06-01

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA.

Arctic lake physical processes and regimes with implications for winter water availability and management in the national petroleum reserve alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, C.D.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Beck, R.A.; Schmutz, J.A.; Winston, B.

2009-01-01

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Water-saving interventions assessment framework: an application for the Urmia Lake Restoration Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shadkam, Somayeh; Oel, Pieter; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

2017-04-01

Increasing water demand often results in unsustainable water use leaving insufficient amounts of water for sustaining natural environments. Therefore, to save natural resources water-saving interventions have been introduced to the environmental policy agenda in many (semi)-arid regions. Many policies, however, have failed reaching their objectives to increase water availability for the environment. This calls for a comprehensive tool to assess water-saving policies. Therefore, this study introduces a constructive framework to assess the policies by estimating five components: 1) Total water demand under socio-economic scenarios, 2) Water supply under climate change scenarios, 3) Water withdrawal for different sectors, 4) Water depletion and 5) Environmental flow. The framework, was applied to assess Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP), which aims to restore the drying Urmia Lake in north-western Iran by increasing the lake inflow by 3.1×106m3yr-1. Results suggest that although the ULRP helps to increase inflow by up to 57% it is unlikely to fully reach its target. The analysis shows that there are three main reasons for the potential poor performance. The first reason is decreasing return flows due to increasing irrigation efficiency. This means that the expected increase in lake inflow volume is smaller than the volume saved by increasing irrigation efficiency. The second reason is increased depletion which is due to neglecting the fact that agricultural water demand is currently higher than available water for agriculture. As a result, increasing water use efficiency may result in increased water depletion. The third reason is ignoring the potential impact of climate change, which might decrease future water availability by 3% to 15%. Our analysis suggests that to reach the intervention target, measures need to focus on reducing Water demand and Water depletion rather than on reducing Water withdrawals. The assessment framework can be used to comprehensively assess water-saving intervention plans, particularly in water-stressed basins.

The Coupling of Ecosystem Productivity and Water Availability in Dryland Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Barron-Gafford, G.

2014-12-01

Land cover and climatic change will alter biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of water vapor and carbon dioxide depending, in part, on feedbacks between biotic activity and water availability. Eddy covariance observations allow us to estimate ecosystem-scale productivity and respiration, and these datasets are now becoming sufficiently mature to advance understanding of these ecohydrological interactions. Here we use a network of sites in semiarid western North America representing gradients of water availability and functional plant type. We examine how precipitation (P) controls evapotranspiration (ET), net ecosystem production (NEP), and its component fluxes of ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem production (GEP). Despite the high variability in seasonal and annual precipitation timing and amounts that we expect to influence ecosystem function, we find persistent overall relationships between P or ET and the fluxes of NEP, Reco and GEP across the network, indicating a commonality and resilience in ecosystem soil and plant response to water availability. But we also observe several important site differences such as prior seasonal legacy effects on subsequent fluxes which vary depending on dominant plant functional type. For example, multiyear droughts, episodic cool-season droughts, and hard winter freezes seem to affect the herbaceous species differently than the woody ones. Nevertheless, the overall, strong coupling between hydrologic and ecologic processes at these sites bolsters our ability to predict the response of dryland ecosystems to future precipitation change.

36 CFR 219.19 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... response to climate change. Conservation. The protection, preservation, management, or restoration of... structure and/or function and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment... carbon; climate regulation; water filtration, purification, and storage; soil stabilization; flood...

36 CFR 219.19 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... response to climate change. Conservation. The protection, preservation, management, or restoration of... structure and/or function and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment... carbon; climate regulation; water filtration, purification, and storage; soil stabilization; flood...

36 CFR 219.19 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... response to climate change. Conservation. The protection, preservation, management, or restoration of... structure and/or function and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment... carbon; climate regulation; water filtration, purification, and storage; soil stabilization; flood...

Objective Assessment of Groundwater Resources for the Isle of Wight, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, M.; Butler, A. P.; McIntyre, N.

2012-12-01

Water resources are of crucial importance to the UK, and are essential to agriculture and industry as well as for domestic usage. A combination of factors - population growth, climate change and increasing regulatory restriction - will alter water availability over the next fifty years, potentially leading to shortages. Groundwater systems, representing 60% of available water in the southern UK, are typically conceptualised through geological interpretation, resulting in skilful and widely used systems models. Where these models are not successful, alternative approaches to groundwater resource assessments are required. A process for objectively modelling groundwater systems from borehole level observation data is presented, along with a methodology for incorporating climate change and population growth forecasts into an assessment of future water availability. The objective assessment described is a three stage process. Firstly, the observation data can be associated into groups, in order to best represent the water table response and thus identify units with consistent storage coefficient and transport process, analogous to varying aquifer media. Here this is achieved through the use of cluster analysis, applying various distance metrics to observation variances and incorporating spatial displacement. Secondly, the resulting groups are used to generate interpolated surfaces of mean water table level. A series of interpolative methods, including stochastic approaches, are applied and cross-validated to generate the most credible groundwater surface. Thirdly, the presence and influence of spatial and temporal anomalies such as groundwater abstraction points are identified through examination of observations furthest from the final interpolated groundwater surface. This groundwater systems model can then be incorporated into a groundwater/surface model relating rainfall to water table level and river flow, which in turn is used in conjunction with state-of-the-art climate projections and population change forecasts to generate projections of change for future scenarios. A case study illustrating the use of this methodology is presented. The Isle of Wight, a small island off the south coast of England with a population of 140,000, is exceptionally water stressed by UK standards and currently dependent on mainland transfers. These transfers are under review due to environmental pressure on the neighbouring county of Hampshire. Alongside this, a high population growth rate and the southerly location make the Isle of Wight the most likely part of the UK to be affected by reduced water availability. Lower Greensands and Chalk aquifer systems provide most of the island's non-imported water, yet these remain poorly understood. The principle reason for this is the exceptionally complex geology, a result of the island's location at the convergence of two asymmetric anticlinal structures and, in the case of the Lower Greensand group, multiple layers of alternating aquiferous and non-aquiferous material. A statistical assessment of borehole data may provide evidence for groundwater processes where direct lithological analysis is not appropriate. Through development of a credible groundwater systems model and sensible projections of future water availability, critical information can be provided to influence future water management policy.

Hydrologic implications of GRACE satellite data in the Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Reedy, Robert C.; Pool, Donald R.; Save, Himanshu; Long, Di; Chen, Jianli; Wolock, David M.; Conway, Brian D.; Winester, Daniel

2015-01-01

Use of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites for assessing global water resources is rapidly expanding. Here we advance application of GRACE satellites by reconstructing long-term total water storage (TWS) changes from ground-based monitoring and modeling data. We applied the approach to the Colorado River Basin which has experienced multiyear intense droughts at decadal intervals. Estimated TWS declined by 94 km3 during 1986–1990 and by 102 km3 during 1998–2004, similar to the TWS depletion recorded by GRACE (47 km3) during 2010–2013. Our analysis indicates that TWS depletion is dominated by reductions in surface reservoir and soil moisture storage in the upper Colorado basin with additional reductions in groundwater storage in the lower basin. Groundwater storage changes are controlled mostly by natural responses to wet and dry cycles and irrigation pumping outside of Colorado River delivery zones based on ground-based water level and gravity data. Water storage changes are controlled primarily by variable water inputs in response to wet and dry cycles rather than increasing water use. Surface reservoir storage buffers supply variability with current reservoir storage representing ∼2.5 years of available water use. This study can be used as a template showing how to extend short-term GRACE TWS records and using all available data on storage components of TWS to interpret GRACE data, especially within the context of droughts.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerner, S.J.; Steiger, J.I.; Sory, J.D.; Burden, Carole B.; Loving, B.L.; Brockner, S.J.; Danner, M.R.; Downhour, Paul; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.; Herbert, L.R.

1997-01-01

This is the thirty-fourth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources, provide data to enable interested parties to keep aware of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas for which applicable data are available and are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 1996. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Divisions of Water Rights and Water Resources.

Ground-water conditions in Utah, spring of 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Susong, David D.; Burden, Carole B.; Sory, J.D.; Eacret, Robert J.; Johnson, K.K.; Loving, B.L.; Brockner, S.J.; Danner, M.R.; Downhour, Paul; Slaugh, B.A.; Swenson, R.L.; Howells, J.H.; Christiansen, H.K.; Herbert, L.R.

1998-01-01

This is the thirty-fifth in a series of annual reports that describe ground-water conditions in Utah. Reports in this series, published cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources, provide data to enable interested parties to maintain awareness of changing ground-water conditions.This report, like the others in the series, contains information on well construction, ground-water withdrawal from wells, water-level changes, precipitation, streamflow, and chemical quality of water. Information on well construction included in this report refers only to wells constructed for new appropriations of ground water. Supplementary data are included in reports of this series only for those years or areas which are important to a discussion of changing ground-water conditions and for which applicable data are available.This report includes individual discussions of selected significant areas of ground-water development in the State for calendar year 1997. Most of the reported data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Divisions of Water Rights and Water Resources.

Topographic, edaphic, and vegetative controls on plant-available water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dymond, Salli F.; Bradford, John B.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Kolka, Randall K.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; DeSutter, Thomas S.

2017-01-01

Soil moisture varies within landscapes in response to vegetative, physiographic, and climatic drivers, which makes quantifying soil moisture over time and space difficult. Nevertheless, understanding soil moisture dynamics for different ecosystems is critical, as the amount of water in a soil determines a myriad ecosystem services and processes such as net primary productivity, runoff, microbial decomposition, and soil fertility. We investigated the patterns and variability in in situ soil moisture measurements converted to plant-available water across time and space under different vegetative cover types and topographic positions at the Marcell Experimental Forest (Minnesota, USA). From 0 – 228.6 cm soil depth, plant-available water was significantly higher under the hardwoods (12%), followed by the aspen (8%) and red pine (5%) cover types. Across the same soil depth, toeslopes were wetter (mean plant-available water = 10%) than ridges and backslopes (mean plant-available water was 8%), although these differences were not statistically significant (p < 0.05). Using a mixed model of fixed and random effects, we found that cover type, soil texture, and time were related to plant-available water and that topography was not significantly related to plant-available water within this low-relief landscape. Additionally, during the three-year monitoring period, red pine and quaking aspen sites experienced plant-available water levels that may be considered limiting to plant growth and function. Given that increasing temperatures and more erratic precipitation patterns associated with climate change may result in decreased soil moisture in this region, these species may be sensitive and vulnerable to future shifts in climate.

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

PubMed

Hemming, Debbie; Buontempo, Carlo; Burke, Eleanor; Collins, Mat; Kaye, Neil

2010-11-28

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

Terrestrial carbon balance in a drier world: the effects of water availability in southwestern North America.

PubMed

Biederman, Joel A; Scott, Russell L; Goulden, Michael L; Vargas, Rodrigo; Litvak, Marcy E; Kolb, Thomas E; Yepez, Enrico A; Oechel, Walter C; Blanken, Peter D; Bell, Tom W; Garatuza-Payan, Jaime; Maurer, Gregory E; Dore, Sabina; Burns, Sean P

2016-05-01

Global modeling efforts indicate semiarid regions dominate the increasing trend and interannual variation of net CO2 exchange with the atmosphere, mainly driven by water availability. Many semiarid regions are expected to undergo climatic drying, but the impacts on net CO2 exchange are poorly understood due to limited semiarid flux observations. Here we evaluated 121 site-years of annual eddy covariance measurements of net and gross CO2 exchange (photosynthesis and respiration), precipitation, and evapotranspiration (ET) in 21 semiarid North American ecosystems with an observed range of 100 - 1000 mm in annual precipitation and records of 4-9 years each. In addition to evaluating spatial relationships among CO2 and water fluxes across sites, we separately quantified site-level temporal relationships, representing sensitivity to interannual variation. Across the climatic and ecological gradient, photosynthesis showed a saturating spatial relationship to precipitation, whereas the photosynthesis-ET relationship was linear, suggesting ET was a better proxy for water available to drive CO2 exchanges after hydrologic losses. Both photosynthesis and respiration showed similar site-level sensitivity to interannual changes in ET among the 21 ecosystems. Furthermore, these temporal relationships were not different from the spatial relationships of long-term mean CO2 exchanges with climatic ET. Consequently, a hypothetical 100-mm change in ET, whether short term or long term, was predicted to alter net ecosystem production (NEP) by 64 gCm(-2) yr(-1). Most of the unexplained NEP variability was related to persistent, site-specific function, suggesting prioritization of research on slow-changing controls. Common temporal and spatial sensitivity to water availability increases our confidence that site-level responses to interannual weather can be extrapolated for prediction of CO2 exchanges over decadal and longer timescales relevant to societal response to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Spatial patterns of development drive water use

Treesearch

G. M. Sanchez; J. W. Smith; A. Terando; G. Sun; R. K. Meentemeyer

2018-01-01

Water availability is becoming more uncertain as human populations grow, cities expand into rural regions and the climate changes. In this study, we examine the functional relationship between water use and the spatial patterns of developed land across the rapidly growing region of the southeastern United States. We quantified the spatial pattern of developed land...

Effects of available water on growth and competition of southern pine beetle associated fungi

Treesearch

Kier D. Klepzig; J. Flores-Otero; R.W. Hofstetter; M.P. Ayers

2004-01-01

Competitive interactions among bark beetle associated fungi are potentially influenced by abiotic factors. Water potential, in particular, undergoes marked changes over the course of beetle colonization of tree hosts. To investigate the impact of water potential on competition among three southern pine beetle associated fungi, Ophiostoma minus,

Learning about Drinking Water: How Important Are the Three Dimensions of Knowledge That Can Change Individual Behavior?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fremerey, Christian; Bogner, Franz X.

2014-01-01

Clean drinking water, our most important resource, needs comprehensive protection. Due to its ubiquitous availability, the awareness of the importance of clean drinking water has partially vanished. Therefore, sensitizing within this context and improving individual ecological behavior has become an important issue in science curricula. We…

Biochar particle size, shape, and porosity act together to influence soil water properties

PubMed Central

Dugan, Brandon; Masiello, Caroline A.; Gonnermann, Helge M.

2017-01-01

Many studies report that, under some circumstances, amending soil with biochar can improve field capacity and plant-available water. However, little is known about the mechanisms that control these improvements, making it challenging to predict when biochar will improve soil water properties. To develop a conceptual model explaining biochar’s effects on soil hydrologic processes, we conducted a series of well constrained laboratory experiments using a sand matrix to test the effects of biochar particle size and porosity on soil water retention curves. We showed that biochar particle size affects soil water storage through changing pore space between particles (interpores) and by adding pores that are part of the biochar (intrapores). We used these experimental results to better understand how biochar intrapores and biochar particle shape control the observed changes in water retention when capillary pressure is the main component of soil water potential. We propose that biochar’s intrapores increase water content of biochar-sand mixtures when soils are drier. When biochar-sand mixtures are wetter, biochar particles’ elongated shape disrupts the packing of grains in the sandy matrix, increasing the volume between grains (interpores) available for water storage. These results imply that biochars with a high intraporosity and irregular shapes will most effectively increase water storage in coarse soils. PMID:28598988

Biochar particle size, shape, and porosity act together to influence soil water properties.

PubMed

Liu, Zuolin; Dugan, Brandon; Masiello, Caroline A; Gonnermann, Helge M

2017-01-01

Many studies report that, under some circumstances, amending soil with biochar can improve field capacity and plant-available water. However, little is known about the mechanisms that control these improvements, making it challenging to predict when biochar will improve soil water properties. To develop a conceptual model explaining biochar's effects on soil hydrologic processes, we conducted a series of well constrained laboratory experiments using a sand matrix to test the effects of biochar particle size and porosity on soil water retention curves. We showed that biochar particle size affects soil water storage through changing pore space between particles (interpores) and by adding pores that are part of the biochar (intrapores). We used these experimental results to better understand how biochar intrapores and biochar particle shape control the observed changes in water retention when capillary pressure is the main component of soil water potential. We propose that biochar's intrapores increase water content of biochar-sand mixtures when soils are drier. When biochar-sand mixtures are wetter, biochar particles' elongated shape disrupts the packing of grains in the sandy matrix, increasing the volume between grains (interpores) available for water storage. These results imply that biochars with a high intraporosity and irregular shapes will most effectively increase water storage in coarse soils.

Examining Projected Changes in Weather & Air Quality Extremes Between 2000 & 2030 using Dynamical Downscaling

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change may alter regional weather extremes resulting in a range of environmental impacts including changes in air quality, water quality and availability, energy demands, agriculture, and ecology. Dynamical downscaling simulations were conducted with the Weather Research...

Water quality status and trends in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Matthew C.; Hamilton, Pixie A.; Werkheiser, William H.; Ahuja, Satinder

2013-01-01

Information about water quality is vital to ensure long-term availability and sustainability of water that is safe for drinking and recreation and suitable for industry, irrigation, fish, and wildlife. Protecting and enhancing water quality is a national priority, requiring information on water-quality status and trends, progress toward clean water standards, continuing problems, and emerging challenges. In this brief review, we discuss U.S. Geological Survey assessments of nutrient pollution, pesticides, mixtures of organic wastewater compounds (known as emerging contaminants), sediment-bound contaminants (like lead and DDT), and mercury, among other contaminants. Additionally, aspects of land use and current and emerging challenges associated with climate change are presented. Climate change must be considered, as water managers continue their efforts to maintain sufficient water of good quality for humans and for the ecosystem.

Separating Vegetation Greening and Climate Change Controls on Evapotranspiration trend over the Loess Plateau.

PubMed

Jin, Zhao; Liang, Wei; Yang, Yuting; Zhang, Weibin; Yan, Jianwu; Chen, Xuejuan; Li, Sha; Mo, Xingguo

2017-08-15

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key ecological process connecting the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system, and its changes seriously affects the regional distribution of available water resources, especially in the arid and semiarid regions. With the Grain-for-Green project implemented in the Loess Plateau (LP) since 1999, water and heat distribution across the region have experienced great changes. Here, we investigate the changes and associated driving forces of ET in the LP from 2000 to 2012 using a remote sensing-based evapotranspiration model. Results show that annual ET significantly increased by 3.4 mm per year (p = 0.05) with large interannual fluctuations during the study period. This trend is higher than coincident increases in precipitation (2.0 mm yr -2 ), implying a possible pressure of water availability. The correlation analysis showed that vegetation change is the major controlling factor on interannual variability of annual ET with ~52.8% of pixels scattered in the strip region from the northeastern to southwestern parts of the LP. Further factorial analysis suggested that vegetation greening is the primary driver of the rises of ET over the study period relative to climate change. Our study can provide an improved understanding of the effects of vegetation and climate change on terrestrial ecosystem ET in the LP.

Development and Performance of Alternative Electricity Sector Pathways Subject to Multiple Climate and Water Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Sun, Y.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Tidwell, V. C.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts on air temperatures and water availability have the potential to alter future electricity sector investment decisions as well as the reliability and performance of the power sector. Different electricity sector configurations are more or less vulnerable to climate-induced changes. For example, once-through cooled thermal facilities are the most cost-effective and efficient technologies under cooler and wetter conditions, but can be substantially affected by and vulnerable to warmer and drier conditions. Non-thermal renewable technologies, such as PV and wind, are essentially "drought-proof" but have other integration and reliability challenges. Prior efforts have explored the impacts of climate change on electric sector development for a limited set of climate and electricity scenarios. Here, we provide a comprehensive suite of scenarios that evaluate how different electricity sector pathways could be affected by a range of climate and water resource conditions. We use four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios under five global circulation models (GCM) as climate drivers to a Water Balance Model (WBM), to provide twenty separate future climate-water conditions. These climate-water conditions influence electricity sector development from present day to 2050 as determined using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) model. Four unique electricity sector pathways will be considered, including business-as-usual, carbon cap, high renewable energy technology costs, and coal reliance scenarios. The combination of climate-water and electricity sector pathway scenarios leads to 80 potential future cases resulting in different national and regional electricity infrastructure configurations. The vulnerability of these configurations in relation to climate change (including in-stream thermal pollution impacts and environmental regulations) is evaluated using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model, providing quantitative estimates of the power sector's ability to meet loads, given changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability.

Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lutz, James A.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Franklin, Jerry F.

2010-01-01

Aim  (1) To calculate annual potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (AET) and climatic water deficit (Deficit) with high spatial resolution; (2) to describe distributions for 17 tree species over a 2300-m elevation gradient in a 3000-km2 landscape relative to AET and Deficit; (3) to examine changes in AET and Deficit between past (c. 1700), present (1971–2000) and future (2020–49) climatological means derived from proxies, observations and projections; and (4) to infer how the magnitude of changing Deficit may contribute to changes in forest structure and composition.Location  Yosemite National Park, California, USA.Methods  We calculated the water balance within Yosemite National Park using a modified Thornthwaite-type method and correlated AET and Deficit with tree species distribution. We used input data sets with different spatial resolutions parameterized for variation in latitude, precipitation, temperature, soil water-holding capacity, slope and aspect. We used climate proxies and climate projections to model AET and Deficit for past and future climate. We compared the modelled future water balance in Yosemite with current species water-balance ranges in North America.Results  We calculated species climatic envelopes over broad ranges of environmental gradients – a range of 310 mm for soil water-holding capacity, 48.3°C for mean monthly temperature (January minima to July maxima), and 918 mm yr−1 for annual precipitation. Tree species means were differentiated by AET and Deficit, and at higher levels of Deficit, species means were increasingly differentiated. Modelled Deficit for all species increased by a mean of 5% between past (c. 1700) and present (1971–2000). Projected increases in Deficit between present and future (2020–49) were 23% across all plots.Main conclusions  Modelled changes in Deficit between past, present and future climate scenarios suggest that recent past changes in forest structure and composition may accelerate in the future, with species responding individualistically to further declines in water availability. Declining water availability may disproportionately affect Pinus monticola and Tsuga mertensiana. Fine-scale heterogeneity in soil water-holding capacity, aspect and slope implies that plant water balance may vary considerably within the grid cells of kilometre-scale climate models. Sub-grid-cell soil and topographical data can partially compensate for the lack of spatial heterogeneity in gridded climate data, potentially improving vegetation-change projections in mountainous landscapes with heterogeneous topography.

Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China

DOE PAGES

Ye, Qing; Yang, Xiaoguang; Dai, Shuwei; ...

2015-06-05

Here, we discuss that rice is one of the main crops grown in southern China. Global climate change has significantly altered the local water availability and temperature regime for rice production. In this study, we explored the influence of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, rice cropping systems and crop water requirements (CWRs) during the growing season for historical (from 1951 to 2010) and future (from 2011 to 2100) time periods. The results indicated that the land areas suitable for rice cropping systems shifted northward and westward from 1951 to 2100 but with different amplitudes.

Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation and Hydropower Potential: A Case of Upper Blue Nile Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdella, E. J.; Gosain, A. K.; Khosa, R.

2017-12-01

Due to the growing pressure in water resource and climate change there is great uncertainty in the availability of water for existing as well as proposed irrigation and hydropower projects in the Upper Blue Nile basin (longitude 34oE and 39oE and latitude 7oN and 12oN). This study quantitatively assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the basin which intern affect water availability for different use including hydropower and irrigation. Ensemble of four bias corrected regional climate models (RCM) of CORDEX Africa domain and two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to determine climate projections for future (2021-2050) period. The outputs from the climate models used to drive the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to simulate future runoff. The simulated discharge were used as input to a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) water allocation model to determine the implication in hydropower and irrigation potential of the basin. The WEAP model was setup to simulate three scenarios which includes Current, Medium-term (by 2025) and Long-term (by 2050) Development scenario. The projected mean annual temperature of the basin are warmer than the baseline (1982 - 2005) average in the range of 1 to 1.4oC. Projected mean annual precipitation varies across the basin in the range of - 3% to 7%, much of the expected increase is in the highland region of the basin. The water use simulation indicate that the current annual average irrigation water demand in the basin is 1.29Bm3y-1 with 100% coverage. By 2025 and 2050, with the development of new schemes and changing climate, water demand for irrigation is estimated to increase by 2.5 Bm3y-1 and 3.4 Bm3y-1 with 99 % and 96% coverage respectively. Simulation for domestic water demand coverage for all scenarios shows that there will be 100% coverage for the two major cities in the basin. The hydropower generation simulation indicate that 98% of hydroelectricity potential could be produced if all planed dams are constructed. The results in this study demonstrate the general idea of future water availability for different purpose in the basin, but uncertainties still exist in the projected future climate and simulated runoff. Optimal operation of existing and proposed reservoirs is also crucial in the context of climate change.

Hydrologic Effects and Biogeographic Impacts of Coastal Fog, Channel Islands, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, D. T.; Still, C. J.; Williams, A. P.

2006-12-01

Fog has long been recognized as an important component of the hydrological cycle in many ecosystems, including coastal desert fog belts, tropical cloud forests, and montane areas worldwide. Fog drip can be a major source of water, particularly during the dry season, and there is evidence in some ecosystems of direct fogwater uptake by foliar absorption. Fog and low clouds can also increase availability of water by reducing evaporative water losses. In the California Channel Islands, fog and low stratus clouds dramatically affect the water budget of coastal vegetation, particularly during the long summer drought. This work focuses on a population of Bishop pine (Pinus muricata D. Don) on Santa Cruz Island. This is the southernmost large stand of this species, and tree growth and survival appears to be strongly limited by water availability. We have used parallel measurement and modeling approaches to quantify the importance of fogwater inputs and persistent cloud cover to Bishop pine growth. We have modeled drought stress over the last century based on local climate records, calibrated against a dense network of 12 weather stations on a 7km coastal-inland elevation gradient. Water availability is highly variable year to year, with episodic droughts that are associated with widespread tree mortality. Frequent cloud cover near the coast reduces evapotranspiration relative to the inland site (on the order of 25%), thereby delaying the onset of, and moderating the severity of the annual summer drought. Substantial summer fog drip at higher elevations provides additional water inputs that also reduce drought severity. Beyond the theoretical availability of extra water from fog drip, tree ring analysis and xylem water isotopic data suggest that significant amounts of fog water are actually taken up by these trees. Stand boundaries appear to be driven by spatial patterns of mortality related to water availability and frequency of severe drought. These results suggest that coastal endemic forests may be particularly susceptible to climate change, particularly if it leads to changes in the fog and low stratus cloud regime, in agreement with palynological and plant macrofossil evidence from the Santa Barbara basin showing the contraction of coastal pines during warm periods over the last 160 kyrs.

Coupled Soil-Plant Water Dynamics During Drought-Rewetting Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volkmann, T. H.; Haberer, K.; Gessler, A.; Weiler, M.

2013-12-01

The predicted climate and land-use changes could have dramatic effects on the water balance of the soil-vegetation system, particularly under frequent drought and subsequent rewetting conditions. Yet, estimation of these effects and associated consequences for the structure and functioning of ecosystems, groundwater recharge, drinking water availability, and the water cycle is currently impeded by gaps in our understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil water in the rooted soil horizons, the dynamics and driving physiological processes of plant water acquisition, and the transpiration from plant leaves under changing environmental conditions. Combining approaches from the disciplines of plant ecophysiology and soil and isotope hydrology, this work aims to fill this gap by quantitatively characterizing the interaction between plant water use - as affected by rooting patterns and ecophysiology of different plant functional groups - and the water balance of variably complex ecosystems with emphasis on drought and rewetting phases. Results from artificial drought and subsequent rewetting in field experiments using isotopically and dye (Brilliant Blue FCF) labeled water conducted on plots of various surface cover (bare soil, grass, beech, oak, vine) established on luvisol on loess in southwestern Germany are presented. Detailed spatiotemporal insights into the coupled short-term (hours to days) dynamics of soil and plant water during the experiments is facilitated by the application of newly developed techniques for high-frequency in-situ monitoring of stable isotope signatures in both pore water and transpired water using commercial laser-based spectrometers in conjunction with plant ecophysiological, soil physical state, and dye staining observations. On the one hand, the spatiotemporal patterns of plant water uptake are assessed and related to morphological and physiological traits driving plant water uptake, functional adaptations of plants to changes of soil water availability, and intra- and interspecies competition for water resources access. On the other hand, the effects of vegetation cover on infiltration, preferential flow paths characteristics, and soil water storage in the rooted soil horizons are investigated. The results of the experiments and the developed methodology will contribute to an improved understanding of ecosystem response and adaptation to drought and short-term changes in environmental conditions.

Modeling the resilience of urban water supply using the capital portfolio approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, E. H.; Klammler, H.; Borchardt, D.; Frank, K.; Jawitz, J. W.; Rao, P. S.

2017-12-01

The dynamics of global change challenge the resilience of cities in a multitude of ways, including pressures resulting from population and consumption changes, production patterns, climate and landuse change, as well as environmental hazards. Responses to these challenges aim to improve urban resilience, but lack an adequate understanding of 1) the elements and processes that lead to the resilience of coupled natural-human-engineered systems, 2) the complex dynamics emerging from the interaction of these elements, including the availability of natural resources, infrastructure, and social capital, which may lead to 3) unintended consequences resulting from management responses. We propose a new model that simulates the coupled dynamics of five types of capitals (water resources, infrastructure, finances, political capital /management, and social adaptive capacity) that are necessary for the provision of water supply to urban residents. We parameterize the model based on data for a case study city, which is limited by constraints in water availability, financial resources, and faced with degrading infrastructure, as well as population increase, which challenge the urban management institutions. Our model analyzes the stability of the coupled system, and produces time series of the capital dynamics to quantify its resilience as a result of the portfolio of capitals available to usher adaptive capacity and to secure water supply subjected to multiple recurring shocks. We apply our model to one real urban water supply system located in an arid environment, as well as a wide range of hypothetical case studies, which demonstrates its applicability to various types of cities, and its ability to quantify and compare water supply resilience. The analysis of a range of urban water systems provides valuable insights into guiding more sustainable responses for maintaining the resilience of urban water supply around the globe, by showing how unsustainable responses risk the loss of resilience. We suggest that the same model can be generalized to represent other types of urban infrastructure service systems with different parameterizations.

Linking Pan-European data to the local scale for decision making for global change and water scarcity within water resources planning and management.

PubMed

Suárez-Almiñana, Sara; Pedro-Monzonís, María; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín; Solera, Abel

2017-12-15

This study focuses on a novel type of methodology which connects Pan-European data to the local scale in the field of water resources management. This methodology is proposed to improve and facilitate the decision making within the planning and management of water resources, taking into account climate change and its expected impacts. Our main point of interest is focused on the assessment of the predictability of extreme events and their possible effects, specifically droughts and water scarcity. Consequently, the Júcar River Basin was selected as the case study, due to the ongoing water scarcity problems and the last drought episodes suffered in the Mediterranean region. In order to study these possible impacts, we developed a modeling chain divided into four steps, they are: i) data collection, ii) analysis of available data, iii) models calibration and iv) climate impact analysis. Over previous steps, we used climate data from 15 different regional climate models (RCMs) belonging to the three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) coming from a hydrological model across all of Europe called E-HYPE. The data were bias corrected and used to obtain statistical results of the availability of water resources for the future (horizon 2039) and in form of indicators. This was performed through a hydrological (EVALHID), stochastic (MASHWIN) and risk management (SIMRISK) models, all of which were specifically calibrated for this basin. The results show that the availability of water resources is much more enthusiastic than in the current situation, indicating the possibility that climate change, which was predicted to occur in the future has already happened in the Júcar River Basin. It seems that the so called "Effect 80", an important decrease in water resources for the last three decades, is not well contemplated in the initial data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of climate change on spring wheat phenophase and water requirement in Heihe River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Dongmei; Yan, Denghua; Xu, Xinyi; Gao, Yu

2017-02-01

Climate change has significantly altered the temperature rhythm which is a key factor for the growth and phenophase of the crop. And temperature change further affects crop water requirement and irrigation system. In the north-west of China, one of the most important crop production bases is Heihe River basin where the observed phenological data is scarce. This study thus first adopted accumulated temperature threshold (ATT) method to define the phenological stages of the crop, and analysed the effect of climate change on phenological stages and water requirement of the crop during growing season. The results indicated the ATT was available for the determination of spring wheat phenological stages. The start dates of all phenological stages became earlier and the growing season length (days) was reduced by 7 days under climate change. During the growing season, water requirement without consideration of phenophase change has been increased by 26.1 mm, while that with consideration of phenophase change was featured in the decrease of water requirement by 50 mm. When temperature increased by 1°C on average, the changes were featured in the 2 days early start date of growing season, 2 days decrease of growing season length, and the 1.4 mm increase of water requirement, respectively.

An operational ensemble prediction system for catchment rainfall over eastern Africa spanning multiple temporal and spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddle, E. E.; Hopson, T. M.; Gebremichael, M.; Boehnert, J.; Broman, D.; Sampson, K. M.; Rostkier-Edelstein, D.; Collins, D. C.; Harshadeep, N. R.; Burke, E.; Havens, K.

2017-12-01

While it is not yet certain how precipitation patterns will change over Africa in the future, it is clear that effectively managing the available water resources is going to be crucial in order to mitigate the effects of water shortages and floods that are likely to occur in a changing climate. One component of effective water management is the availability of state-of-the-art and easy to use rainfall forecasts across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We present a web-based system for displaying and disseminating ensemble forecast and observed precipitation data over central and eastern Africa. The system provides multi-model rainfall forecasts integrated to relevant hydrological catchments for timescales ranging from one day to three months. A zoom-in features is available to access high resolution forecasts for small-scale catchments. Time series plots and data downloads with forecasts, recent rainfall observations and climatological data are available by clicking on individual catchments. The forecasts are calibrated using a quantile regression technique and an optimal multi-model forecast is provided at each timescale. The forecast skill at the various spatial and temporal scales will discussed, as will current applications of this tool for managing water resources in Sudan and optimizing hydropower operations in Ethiopia and Tanzania.

Surface water-quality assessment of the lower Kansas River basin, Kansas and Nebraska: analysis of available water-quality data through 1986

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jordan, P.R.; Stamer, J.K.

1991-01-01

Beginning in 1986, the U.S. Congress appropriated funds for the U.S. Geological Survey to test and refine concepts for a National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The long-term goals of the full-scale program are to: (1) provide a nationally consistent description of current water-quality conditions for a large part of the Nation's surface- and ground-water resources; (2) define long-term trends (or lack of trends) in water quality; and (3) identify, describe, and explain, insofar as possible, the major factors that affect current conditions and trends in water quality. This information, obtained on a continuing basis, will be made available to water managers, policy makers, and the public to provide an improved scientific basis for evaluating the effectiveness of water-quality-management programs and for predicting the likely effects of contemplated changes in land-and water-management practices. At present (1990), the assessment program is in a pilot phase in seven areas that represent diverse hydrologic environments and water-quality conditions.This report completes one of the first activities undertaken as part of the lower Kansas River basin pilot study, which was to compile, screen, and interpret available water-quality data for the study unit through 1986. The report includes information on the sources and types of water-quality data available, the utility of available water-quality data for assessment purposes, and a description of current water-quality conditions and trends and their relation to natural and human factors.

An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

2012-12-01

Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of climate change on crop productivity in a watershed. The first was carried out by the large-scale crop model alone. The second was carried out by the integrated model of the large-scale crop model and the H08 model. The former projected that changes in temperature and precipitation due to future climate change would give rise to increasing the water stress in crops. Nevertheless, the latter projected that the increasing amount of agricultural water resources in the watershed would supply sufficient amount of water for irrigation, consequently reduce the water stress. The integrated model demonstrated the importance of taking into account the water circulation in watershed when predicting the regional crop production.

User manuals for the Delaware River Basin Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (DRB–WATER) and associated WATER application utilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.

2015-11-18

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system (DSS) for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin (DRB) that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that have been parameterized using three hydrologic response units—forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. It is this integration that enables the regional hydrologic-modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model. The DSS provides a “historical” database, ideal for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. The WATER Application Utilities are provided with the DSS and apply change factors for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration to a 1981–2011 climatic record provided with the DSS. These change factors were derived from a suite of general circulation models (GCMs) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. These change factors are based on 25-year monthly averages (normals) that are centere on 2030 and 2060. The WATER Application Utilities also can be used to apply a 2010 snapshot of water use for the DRB; a factorial approach enables scenario testing of increased or decreased water use for each simulation. Finally, the WATER Application Utilities can be used to reformat streamflow time series for input to statistical or reservoir management software. 

Multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE): A new concept for ecosystem production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUEmore » (i.e., “declining marginal returns”); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., “inverse feedback”). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. Furthermore, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.« less

Multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE): A new concept for ecosystem production

DOE PAGES

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan; ...

2016-11-21

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUEmore » (i.e., “declining marginal returns”); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., “inverse feedback”). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. Furthermore, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.« less

Multiple Resource Use Efficiency (mRUE): A New Concept for Ecosystem Production.

PubMed

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan; Wan, Shiqiang

2016-11-21

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail ). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUE (i.e., "declining marginal returns"); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., "inverse feedback"). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. However, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.

Monitoring and Characterizing Seasonal Drought, Water Supply Pattern and Their Impact on Vegetation Growth Using Satellite Soil Moisture Data, GRACE Water Storage and In-situ Observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A, G.; Velicogna, I.; Kimball, J. S.; Kim, Y.; Colliander, A.; Njoku, E. G.

2015-12-01

We combine soil moisture (SM) data from AMSR-E, AMSR-2 and SMAP, terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes from GRACE, in-situ groundwater measurements and atmospheric moisture data to delineate and characterize the evolution of drought and its impact on vegetation growth. GRACE TWS provides spatially continuous observations of total terrestrial water storage changes and regional drought extent, persistence and severity, while satellite derived soil moisture estimates provide enhanced delineation of plant-available soil moisture. Together these data provide complementary metrics quantifying available plant water supply. We use these data to investigate the supply changes from water components at different depth in relation to satellite based vegetation metrics, including vegetation greenness (NDVI) measures from MODIS and related higher order productivity (GPP) before, during and following the major drought events observed in the continental US for the past 14 years. We observe consistent trends and significant correlations between monthly time series of TWS, SM, NDVI and GPP. We study how changes in atmosphere moisture stress and coupling of water storage components at different depth impact on the spatial and temporal correlation between TWS, SM and vegetation metrics. In Texas, we find that surface SM and GRACE TWS agree with each other in general, and both capture the underlying water supply constraints to vegetation growth. Triggered by a transit increase in precipitation following the 2011 hydrological drought, vegetation productivity in Texas shows more sensitivity to surface SM than TWS. In the Great Plains, the correspondence between TWS and vegetation productivity is modulated by temperature-induced atmosphere moisture stress and by the coupling between surface soil moisture and groundwater through irrigation.

Impacts of Water Stress on Forest Recovery and Its Interaction with Canopy Height.

PubMed

Xu, Peipei; Zhou, Tao; Yi, Chuixiang; Luo, Hui; Zhao, Xiang; Fang, Wei; Gao, Shan; Liu, Xia

2018-06-13

Global climate change is leading to an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events, which can affect the functioning of forest ecosystems. Because human activities such as afforestation and forest attributes such as canopy height may exhibit considerable spatial differences, such differences may alter the recovery paths of drought-impacted forests. To accurately assess how climate affects forest recovery, a quantitative evaluation on the effects of forest attributes and their possible interaction with the intensity of water stress is required. Here, forest recovery following extreme drought events was analyzed for Yunnan Province, southwest China. The variation in the recovery of forests with different water availability and canopy heights was quantitatively assessed at the regional scale by using canopy height data based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements, enhanced vegetation index data, and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) data. Our results indicated that forest recovery was affected by water availability and canopy height. Based on the enhanced vegetation index measures, shorter trees were more likely to recover than taller ones after drought. Further analyses demonstrated that the effect of canopy height on recovery rates after drought also depends on water availability—the effect of canopy height on recovery diminished as water availability increased after drought. Additional analyses revealed that when the water availability exceeded a threshold (SPEI > 0.85), no significant difference in the recovery was found between short and tall trees ( p > 0.05). In the context of global climate change, future climate scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 showed more frequent water stress in Yunnan by the end of the 21st century. In summary, our results indicated that canopy height casts an important influence on forest recovery and tall trees have greater vulnerability and risk to dieback and mortality from drought. These results may have broad implications for policies and practices of forest management.

TERENO-MED: Terrestrial Environmental Observatories in the Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, Elisabeth; Friesen, Jan; Kallioras, Andreas; Bogena, Heye; Devaraju, Anusuriya; Vereecken, Harry; Teutsch, Georg

2013-04-01

The Mediterranean region is one of the most imperilled regions in the world concerning present and future water scarcity. The region is delicately positioned at the crossroads between East and West, interlinking Europe, Asia and Africa. Societal and economic changes causing population growth, industrialisation and urbanisation lead to significant increases in food, water and energy demand. Hence, natural resources, such as water and soils, as well as ecosystems are put under pressure and water availability and quality will be severely affected in the future. At the same time, climate and extreme event projections from climate models for the Mediterranean are, unlike for most regions worldwide, consistent in their trends based on various scenarios. This consistency in the model predictions shows that the Mediterranean will face some of the most severe increases in dryness worldwide (based on consecutive dry days and soil moisture), and indicate a decrease of up to 50 % in available water resources within the next 50-100 years. These developments are accentuated by the fact that in many of the Mediterranean countries, natural renewable water resources are fully exploited or over-exploited already today, mainly due to agricultural irrigation, but also touristic activities. At the same time, the Mediterranean region is a global hot spot of freshwater biodiversity, with a high proportion of endemic and endangered species. While trend projections for water availability and climate change derived from global studies are consistent, regional patterns and heterogeneities, as well as local adaptation measures will largely determine the functioning of societies and the health of ecosystems. However, a lack of environmental data prohibits the development of sustainable adaptation measures to water scarcity on a scientific basis. Building on the experiences gained in the national TERENO network, a Mediterranean observatory network will be set-up, coordinated by two Helmholtz Centres and jointly operated with local partners across the Mediterranean region. In a number of Mediterranean mesoscale hydrological catchments TERENO-MED will investigate the long-term effects of global change on the quality and the dynamics of water resources in human-influenced environments under water scarcity. The Helmholtz Centres UFZ (overall coordinator) and FZJ have therefore initiated the set-up of a network of global change observatories in 5-10 Mediterranean river catchments. The TERENO-MED observatories will: - investigate societally relevant water problems in the context of 'typical' Mediterranean environments, - provide long-term and quality-controlled data available to the scientific community, - be operated and maintained through local research institutes and universities, - establish common monitoring platforms and foster synergies between research organizations, - provide solutions to pressing local and regional water problems by building partnerships between scientific partners and regional authorities.

Trade-offs Between Socio-economic Development and Ecosystem Health under Changing Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Elshorbagy, A. A.; Wheater, H. S.; Gober, P.; Jardine, T.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

2017-12-01

Natural and human water systems at regional scales are often developed around key characteristics of streamflow. As a result, changes in streamflow regime can affect both socio-economic activities and freshwater ecosystems. In addition to natural variability and/or climate change, extensive water resource management to support socio-economic growth has also changed streamflow regimes. This study aims at understanding the trade-offs between agricultural expansion in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada, and alterations in the ecohydrological characteristics of the Saskatchewan River Delta (SRD) located downstream. Changes in climate along with extensive water resource management have altered the upstream flow regime. Moreover, Saskatchewan is investigating the possible expansion of irrigated agriculture to boost the provincial economy. To evaluate trade-offs across a range of possible scenarios for streamflow changes, the potential increase in provincial net benefit versus potential vulnerability of the SRD was assessed using perturbed flow realizations along with scenarios of irrigation expansion as input to an integrated water resource system model. This study sheds light on the potential variability in trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem health under a range of streamflow conditions, with the aim of informing decisions that can benefit both natural and human water systems.

Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor Vulnerability Assessments (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Change: The Challenges of conducting Multi-Stressor Global Change Vulnerability Assessments. This report investigates the issues and challenges associated with identifying, calculating, and ...

Regional water table (2000) and ground-water-level changes in the Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins, southwestern Mojave Desert, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Gregory A.

2003-01-01

The Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water systems, and consequently, water availability. During 2000, the U. S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,500 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and, when compared with previous data, changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from about 500 wells, providing coverage for most of the basins. Twenty-nine hydrographs show long-term (up to 70 years) water-level conditions throughout the basins, and 13 short-term (1996 to 2000) hydrographs show the effects of recharge and discharge along the Mojave River. In addition, a water-level-change map was compiled to compare 1998 and 2000 water-levels throughout the basins. In the Mojave River ground-water basins, water-level data showed little change from 1998 to 2000, with the exception of areas along the Mojave River. Water levels along the Mojave River were typically in decline or unchanged, with exceptions near the Hodge and the Lenwood outlet, where water levels rose in response to artificial recharge. The Morongo ground-water basin had virtually no change in water levels from 1998 to 2000, with the exception of Yucca Valley, where artificial recharge and ground-water withdrawal continues.

Tracing society in climate change: Societal negotiations and physical dynamics of water under climate change conditions in the Cordillera Blanca region, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuburger, Martina; Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Maussion, Fabien; Singer, Katrin; Kaser, Georg

2017-04-01

Natural scientists observe and project changes in precipitation and temperature at different spatio-temporal scales and investigate impacts on glaciers and hydrological regimes. Simultaneously, social groups experience ecological phenomena as linked to climate change and integrate them into their understanding of nature and their logics of action, while political actors refer to scientific results as legitimization to focus on adaptation and mitigation strategies on global, national and regional/local level. However, natural and socio-political changes on various scales (regarding time and space) are not directly interlinked, but are communicated by energy and material flows, by discourses, power relations and institutional regulations. In this context, it remains still unclear how natural dynamics are (dis)entangled with societal processes in their historical dimensions and in their interrelations from global via national to regional and local scales. Considering the Cordillera Blanca region in Peru as an example, we analyze the intertwining of scales (global, national, regional, local) and spheres (natural, political, societal) to detect entanglements and disconnections of observed processes. Using the methodology of a time line, we present precipitation variability and glacier recession at different scales, estimate qualitative water availability and investigate the links to the implementation of international and national political programs on climate change adaptation in the Cordillera Blanca region focusing on water and agrarian programs. Finally, we include supposedly contradictory reports of rural population on climate change and related impacts on water availability and agricultural production to analyze the (dis)entanglement due to changing power relations and dominant discourses.

Expected increase in staple crop imports in water-scarce countries in 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouchane, Hatem; Krol, Maarten; Hoekstra, Arjen

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a major challenge in the coming decades. The increasing population and the changing pattern of water availability that results from global warming reduce the potential of sufficient food production in many countries over the world. Today, two thirds of the global population are already living under conditions of severe water scarcity at least one month of the year. This rises the importance of addressing the present and future relationship between water availability and food import in water-scarce countries. The net import of staple crops (barley, cassava, maize, millet and products, oats, potatoes, rice, rye, sorghum, soybeans, sweet potatoes, wheat and yams) is analysed in relation to water availability per capita for the period 1961-2010, considering five decadal averages. The relation found is used together with the low, medium and high population growth scenarios from the United Nations to project the staple crops import in water-scarce countries for the year 2050. Additionally, we investigate the uncertainties related to the three population scenarios. Results will help countries to better understand the impact of population growth and limited water resources on their future food trade. This study will provide a valuable supporting tool for policy makers towards more sustainable and water-efficient food production as targeted with the Sustainable Development Goals. Keywords: Water Availability, Food Import, Staple Crops, Water Scarcity, Water-Use Efficiency, Sustainable Development Goals.

Environmental and socio-economic methodologies and solutions towards integrated water resources management.

PubMed

Friesen, Jan; Rodriguez Sinobas, Leonor; Foglia, Laura; Ludwig, Ralf

2017-03-01

Semi-arid regions are facing the challenge of managing water resources under conditions of increasing scarcity and drought. These are recently pressured by the impact of climate change favoring the shifting from using surface water to groundwater without taking sustainability issues into account. Likewise, water scarcity raises the competition for water among users, increasing the risk of social conflicts, as the availability of fresh water in sufficient quality and quantity is already one of the major factors limiting socio-economic development. In terms of hydrology, semi-arid regions are characterized by very complex hydro- and hydrogeological systems. The complexity of the water cycle contrasts strongly with the poor data availability, (1) which limits the number of analysis techniques and methods available to researchers, (2) limits the accuracy of models and predictions, and (3) consequently challenges the capabilities to develop appropriate management measures to mitigate or adapt the environment to scarcity and drought conditions. Integrated water resources management is a holistic approach to focus on both environmental as well as on socio-economic factors influencing water availability and supply. The management approaches and solutions adopted, e.g. in form of decision support for specific water resources systems, are often highly specific for individual case studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and water security with a focus on the Arctic.

PubMed

Evengard, Birgitta; Berner, Jim; Brubaker, Michael; Mulvad, Gert; Revich, Boris

2011-01-01

Water is of fundamental importance for human life; access to water of good quality is of vital concern for mankind. Currently however, the situation is under severe pressure due to several stressors that have a clear impact on access to water. In the Arctic, climate change is having an impact on water availability by melting glaciers, decreasing seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration, and drying lakes and rivers existing in permafrost grounds. Water quality is also being impacted as manmade pollutants stored in the environment are released, lowland areas are flooded with salty ocean water during storms, turbidity from permafrost-driven thaw and erosion is increased, and the growth or emergence of natural pollutants are increased. By 2030 it is estimated that the world will need to produce 50% more food and energy which means a continuous increase in demand for water. Decisionmakers will have to very clearly include life quality aspects of future generations in the work as impact of ongoing changes will be noticeable, in many cases, in the future. This article will focus on effects of climate-change on water security with an Arctic perspective giving some examples from different countries how arising problems are being addressed.

Climate change and water security with a focus on the Arctic

PubMed Central

Evengard, Birgitta; Berner, Jim; Brubaker, Michael; Mulvad, Gert; Revich, Boris

2011-01-01

Water is of fundamental importance for human life; access to water of good quality is of vital concern for mankind. Currently however, the situation is under severe pressure due to several stressors that have a clear impact on access to water. In the Arctic, climate change is having an impact on water availability by melting glaciers, decreasing seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration, and drying lakes and rivers existing in permafrost grounds. Water quality is also being impacted as manmade pollutants stored in the environment are released, lowland areas are flooded with salty ocean water during storms, turbidity from permafrost-driven thaw and erosion is increased, and the growth or emergence of natural pollutants are increased. By 2030 it is estimated that the world will need to produce 50% more food and energy which means a continuous increase in demand for water. Decisionmakers will have to very clearly include life quality aspects of future generations in the work as impact of ongoing changes will be noticeable, in many cases, in the future. This article will focus on effects of climate-change on water security with an Arctic perspective giving some examples from different countries how arising problems are being addressed. PMID:22043217

Contrasting response of coexisting plant's water-use patterns to experimental precipitation manipulation in an alpine grassland community of Qinghai Lake watershed, China.

PubMed

Wu, Huawu; Li, Jing; Li, Xiao-Yan; He, Bin; Liu, Jinzhao; Jiang, Zhiyun; Zhang, Cicheng

2018-01-01

Understanding species-specific changes in water-use patterns under recent climate scenarios is necessary to predict accurately the responses of seasonally dry ecosystems to future climate. In this study, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment to investigate the changes in water-use patterns of two coexisting species (Achnatherum splendens and Allium tanguticum) to alterations in soil water content (SWC) resulting from increased and decreased rainfall treatments. The results showed that the leaf water potential (Ψ) of A. splendens and A. tanguticum responded to changes in shallow and middle SWC at both the control and treatment plots. However, A. splendens proportionally extracted water from the shallow soil layer (0-10cm) when it was available but shifted to absorbing deep soil water (30-60 cm) during drought. By contrast, the A. tanguticum did not differ significantly in uptake depth between treatment and control plots but entirely depended on water from shallow soil layers. The flexible water-use patterns of A.splendens may be a key factor facilitating its dominance and it better acclimates the recent climate change in the alpine grassland community around Qinghai Lake.

Contrasting response of coexisting plant’s water-use patterns to experimental precipitation manipulation in an alpine grassland community of Qinghai Lake watershed, China

PubMed Central

Li, Xiao-Yan; He, Bin; Liu, Jinzhao; Jiang, Zhiyun; Zhang, Cicheng

2018-01-01

Understanding species-specific changes in water-use patterns under recent climate scenarios is necessary to predict accurately the responses of seasonally dry ecosystems to future climate. In this study, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment to investigate the changes in water-use patterns of two coexisting species (Achnatherum splendens and Allium tanguticum) to alterations in soil water content (SWC) resulting from increased and decreased rainfall treatments. The results showed that the leaf water potential (Ψ) of A. splendens and A. tanguticum responded to changes in shallow and middle SWC at both the control and treatment plots. However, A. splendens proportionally extracted water from the shallow soil layer (0–10cm) when it was available but shifted to absorbing deep soil water (30–60 cm) during drought. By contrast, the A. tanguticum did not differ significantly in uptake depth between treatment and control plots but entirely depended on water from shallow soil layers. The flexible water-use patterns of A.splendens may be a key factor facilitating its dominance and it better acclimates the recent climate change in the alpine grassland community around Qinghai Lake. PMID:29677195

Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

DOE PAGES

Fabre, Julie; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain; ...

2016-08-02

This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basinsmore » of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km 2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. Furthermore, the causes of unsustainability vary across sub-basins and scenarios, and in most areas results are highly dependent on the climate change scenario.« less

Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fabre, Julie; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain

This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basinsmore » of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km 2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. Furthermore, the causes of unsustainability vary across sub-basins and scenarios, and in most areas results are highly dependent on the climate change scenario.« less

Water resource sensitivity from a Mediterranean perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, S. W.; Klein, J.; Archibald, J. A.; Walter, T.

2012-12-01

The water cycle in semiarid environments is intimately connected to plant-water interactions making these regions sensitive to both future climatic changes and landuse alterations. This study explores the sensitivity of water resource availability from a Mediterranean perspective using the Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO) in Costa Navarino, Greece as a large-scale laboratory for developing and testing the potential resource impacts of various landuse/climatic trajectories. Direct measurements of evapotranspiration were combined with Penman-Monteith estimates to compare water vapor flux variability across the gradient of current management conditions found within the NEO landscape. These range from native, non-managed vegetation to historic, traditionally managed agriculture to modern, actively managed recreational lands. These management conditions greatly impact the vertical flux of water vapor in this semiarid landscape. Our evapotranspiration estimates were placed into a process-based modeling framework to characterize the current state of regional water resource availability and simulate future trajectories (and the associated uncertainties) in response to landuse/climatic changes. This region is quite sensitive with regards to water cycle modifications due to the anthropogenic redistribution of water within and across the landscape. Such sensitivity typifies that expected for much of the Mediterranean region, highlighting the NEO as a potential key location for future observation and investigation.

Skylab water balance analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leonard, J. I.

1977-01-01

The water balance of the Skylab crew was analyzed. Evaporative water loss using a whole body input/output balance equation, water, body tissue, and energy balance was analyzed. The approach utilizes the results of several major Skylab medical experiments. Subsystems were designed for the use of the software necessary for the analysis. A partitional water balance that graphically depicts the changes due to water intake is presented. The energy balance analysis determines the net available energy to the individual crewman during any period. The balances produce a visual description of the total change of a particular body component during the course of the mission. The information is salvaged from metabolic balance data if certain techniques are used to reduce errors inherent in the balance method.

EPA's Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Increasing demands for sources of clean water—combined with changing land use practices, population growth, aging infrastructure, and climate change and variability—pose significant threats to our water resources. Failure to manage the Nation’s waters in an integrated, sustainable manner can jeopardize human and aquatic ecosystem health, which can impact our society and economy.Through innovative science and engineering, the SSWR Research Program is developing cost-effective, sustainable solutions to 21st century complex water issues and proactively developing solutions to emerging concerns. Our research is helping to ensure that clean, adequate, and equitable supplies of water are available to support human health and resilient aquatic ecosystems, now and into the future. To share information on EPA's water research program

When should irrigators invest in more water-efficient technologies as an adaptation to climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Yoder, J.

2015-12-01

The western US is expected to experience more frequent droughts with higher magnitudes and persistence due to the climate change, with potentially large impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. Irrigated farmers have many options for minimizing drought impacts including changing crops, engaging in water markets, and switching irrigation technologies. Switching to more efficient irrigation technologies, which increase water availability in the crop root zone through reduction of irrigation losses, receives significant attention because of the promise of maintaining current production with less. However, more efficient irrigation systems are almost always more capital-intensive adaptation strategy particularly compared to changing crops or trading water. A farmer's decision to switch will depend on how much money they project to save from reducing drought damages. The objective of this study is to explore when (and under what climate change scenarios) it makes sense economically for farmers to invest in a new irrigation system. This study was performed over the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State, although the tools and information gained from this study are transferable to other watersheds in the western US. We used VIC-CropSyst, a large-scale grid-based modeling framework that simulates hydrological processes while mechanistically capturing crop water use, growth and development. The water flows simulated by VIC-CropSyst were used to run the RiverWare river system and water management model (YAK-RW), which simulates river processes and calculates regional water availability for agricultural use each day (i.e., the prorationing ratio). An automated computational platform has been developed and programed to perform the economic analysis for each grid cell, crop types and future climate projections separately, which allows us to explore whether or not implementing a new irrigation system is economically viable. Results of this study indicate that climate change could justify the investment in new irrigation systems during this century, but the timing of a farmer's response is likely to depend on a variety of factors, including changes in the frequency and magnitude of drought events, current irrigation systems, climatological characteristics within the basin, and crop type.

Water Accounting Plus for sustainable water management in the Volta river basin, West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dembélé, Moctar; Schaefli, Bettina; Mariéthoz, Grégroire; Ceperley, Natalie; Zwart, Sander J.

2017-04-01

Water Accounting Plus (WA+) is a standard framework that provides estimates of manageable and unmanageable water flows, stocks, consumption among users, and interactions with land use. The water balance terms are estimated based on remotely sensed data from online open access databases. The main difference with other methods is the use of spatiotemporal data, limiting the errors due to the use of static data. So far, no studies have incorporated climate change scenarios in the WA+ framework to assess future water resources, which would be desirable for developing mitigation and adaptation policies. Moreover WA+ has been implemented using remote sensing data while hydrological models data can also be used as inputs for projections on the future water accounts. This study aims to address the above challenges by providing quantified information on the current and projected state of the Volta basin water resources through the WA+ framework. The transboundary Volta basin in West Africa is vulnerable to floods and droughts that damage properties and take lives. Residents are dependent on subsistence agriculture, mainly rainfed, which is sensitive to changes and variation in the climate. Spatially, rainfall shows high spatiotemporal variability with a south-north gradient of increasing aridity. As in many basins in semi-arid environments, most of the rainfall in the Volta basin returns to the atmosphere. The competition for scarce water resources will increase in the near future due to the combined effects of urbanization, economic development, and rapid population growth. Moreover, upstream and downstream countries do not agree on their national priorities regarding the use of water and this brings tensions among them. Burkina Faso increasingly builds small and medium reservoirs for small-scale irrigation, while Ghana seeks to increase electricity production. Information on current and future water resources and uses is thus fundamental for water actors. The adopted methodology for this study will consist of using hydrological models, downscaled climate scenarios, satellite measurements and public domain data. The expected outputs are an assessment of the impacts of external (climate change) and internal influences (land use change) on water resources, their implications for water availability and current and projected water accounting reports. The WA+ framework allows computing a set of indicators that are used to summarize the overall water resources situation. They give an insight of the parts of water that are available, utilized, utilizable, managed, manageable and beneficial or not for the consumptive use. In a transboundary context, the WA+ methodology can serve as a central database on water-land-ecosystems to be used by decision makers. An independent and unbiased assessment of the spatiotemporal availability of water resources and uses could potentially alleviate tensions among the riparian countries.

A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

2015-05-01

A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

Citizen Science: Participatory Monitoring of Water Resources Management in Mustang District, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regmi, S.; Bhusal, J.; Gurung, P.; Ochoa-Tocachi, B. F.; Buytaert, W.

2016-12-01

Abstract The Mustang region of the Himalayas has unique geographical and climatic features. This region is characterized by a cold-arid climate with total annual precipitation of less than 300mm. Agriculture and livestock grazing lands are the major ecosystem services, which support directly the livelihoods of local populations yet, are strongly determined by low water availability. As a result, optimizing water resources management is paramount to support local development, but this is severely complicated by the lack of information about water availability. This problem is further aggravated by increasing pressure on the social, physical and climatic environments. In order to support the management of scarce water in irrigation and domestic uses, stream flow and precipitation monitoring networks were established using a participatory approach under the principle of citizen science. Data collection, and the following interpretation and application of the co-generated knowledge relies on local users, whereas the establishment of the system, knowledge co-generation, and development of application tools particularly is part of a collaboration of members of the general public with professional scientists. We show how the resulting data enable local users to quantify the water balance in the area and reduce the uncertainty associated to data-scarcity, which leads to the generation of useable information about water availability for irrigation, livestock grazing, and domestic demand. We contrast the current scenario of water use, under different conditions of natural variability and environmental change, with an optimized water management strategy generated and agreed with local users. This approach contributes to an optimal use of water, to an improvement in ecosystem services supporting to livelihood development and economic progress of local populations. Key words: ecosystem services, climate change, water balance, knowledge generation, irrigation

Forest legacies, climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species and water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.; Jarnevich, C.; Kumar, S.

2007-01-01

The factors that must be considered in seeking to predict changes in water availability has been examined. These factors are the following: forest legacies including logging, mining, agriculture, grazing, elimination of large carnivores, human-caused wildfire, and pollution; climate change and stream flow; altered disturbances such as frequency intensity and pattern of wildfires and insect outbreaks as well as flood control; lastly, invasive species like forest pests and pathogens. An integrated approach quantifying the current and past condition trends can be combined with spatial and temporal modeling to develop future change in forest structures and water supply. The key is a combination of geographic information system technologies with climate and land use scenarios, while preventing and minimizing the effects of harmful invasive species.

Assessing surface water availability considering human water use and projected climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammd; Moftakhari, Hamed; Anjileli, Hassan

2017-04-01

Climate variability along with anthropogenic activities alter the hydrological cycle and local water availability. The overarching goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the compounding interactions between human water use/withdrawals and climate change and variability. We focus on Karkheh River basin and Urmia basin, in western Iran, that have high level of human activity and water use, and suffer from low water productivity. The future of these basins and their growth relies on sustainable water resources and hence, requires a holistic, basin-wide management to cope with water scarcity challenges. In this study, we investigate changes in the hydrology of the basin including human-induced alterations of the system, during the past three decades. Then, we investigate the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human water withdrawals on surface water storage in the 21st century. We use bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from ensemble mean of eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that, hydrology of the studied basins are significantly dominated by human activities over the baseline period (1976 - 2005). Results show that the increased anthropogenic water demand resulting from substantial socio-economic growth in the past three decades have put significant stress on water resources. We evaluate a number of future water demand scenarios and their interactions with future climate projections. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, the compounding effects of increased irrigation water demand and precipitation variability may lead to severe local water scarcity in these basins. Our study highlights the necessity for understanding and considering the compounding effects of human water use and future climate projections. Such studies would be useful for improving water management and developing adaption plans in water scarce regions.

Mountains in the third millennium - a decade of droughts and water scarcity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, C.; Shaban, A.; Belete, T.

2012-04-01

Droughts and water scarcity have touched the Alps, Mediterranean and East African mountain chains more intensively since the beginning of the third millennium and pose a major challenge for water management. The year 2011 has been no exception, with the lowest river levels on record over the past 50 years even for alpine rivers. Although considerable climate fluctuations and persistent droughts have occurred in the past, it is quite remarkable that the five hottest summers over the past 500 years in Europe and the Alps have all been concentrated after 2002, falling far outside their normal historical distribution. In most mountain chains drought phenomena are persistent over large areas and over a variety of scales. The hydrological consequences, such as decreased rain- and snowfall, drying of springs, decreased river and groundwater discharge, lowering of lake levels and excessive evaporation etc. are considerable. Seasonality has been considerably affected, with the summer extending well into the spring and autumn. Mountain-fed rivers have experienced unusually low discharge over the last 10 years, with a decreasing trend both in summer and winter discharge. These hydrological changes have multiple impacts on availability of drinking water and the energy sector, decreasing hydroelectric production and availability of cooling water for the nuclear industry and negatively effecting river navigation, irrigation agriculture as well as winter tourism in mountains. Despite these naturally-induced shortcomings, adaptation has not always been rational. In some cases, maladaptation has led to overexploitation of water resources during drought conditions, exasperating water scarcity. For example, for the tourism sector in the Alps, water demand for drinking water and artificial snow making lies far above the available resources during the winter season for numerous resorts. This has long term environmental and socio-economic impacts such as destruction of wetlands, desiccation of streams and drinking water conflicts. However, Environmental Impact Assessments still lack consideration of climate change. Data availability and measurements are so sparse in these environments that proper interdisciplinary modelling has still to be developed and most predictions are based on conceptual model approaches. Nevertheless, there is increasing necessity to adapt swiftly and rationally to droughts and increased climate irregularities in mountains. Some countries and regions have already adopted adaptation plans and strategies at the national level but they rarely consider mountain regions. Others have left it up to spontaneous adaptation at the local level. Even at the European level, there are few activities and policies yet dealing with adaptation to climate change under consideration of a combination of droughts, water scarcity or energy issues apart from the EU Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation planned for 2013. Under such conditions, it is essential to carry out scientific observations and modelling as well as develop innovative indicators, for example via climate change witnesses identified amongst the local stakeholders as well as local and regional think tanks.

Water resources scientific information center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cardin, C. William; Campbell, J.T.

1986-01-01

The Water Resources Scientific Information Center (WRSIC) acquires, abstracts and indexes the major water resources related literature of the world, and makes information available to the water resources community and the public. A component of the Water Resources Division of the US Geological Survey, the Center maintains a searchable computerized bibliographic data base, and publishers a monthly journal of abstracts. Through its services, the Center is able to provide reliable scientific and technical information about the most recent water resources developments, as well as long-term trends and changes. WRSIC was established in 1966 by the Secretary of the Interior to further the objectives of the Water Resources Research Act of 1964--legislation that encouraged research in water resources and the prevention of needless duplication of research efforts. It was determined the WRSIC should be the national center for information on water resources, covering research reports, scientific journals, and other water resources literature of the world. WRSIC would evaluate all water resources literature, catalog selected articles, and make the information available in publications or by computer access. In this way WRSIC would increase the availability and awareness of water related scientific and technical information. (Lantz-PTT)

Water Resources Risks and the Climate Resilience Toolkit: Tools, Case Studies, and Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, E. K.; Blodgett, D. L.; Booth, N.

2014-12-01

The Water Resources Risk topic of the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) is designed to provide decision support, technical, and educational resources to communities, water resource managers, policy analysts, and water utilities working to increase the resilience of water resources to climate change. We highlight the partnerships (between federal and state agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private partners), tools (e.g., downscaled climate products, historical and real-time water data, and decision support) and success stories that are informing the CRT Water Resources Risks Theme content, and identify remaining needs in available resources for building resilience of water resources to climate change. The following questions will frame the content of the Water Resources Risk CRT: How are human and natural components of the hydrologic cycle changing? How can communities and water managers plan for uncertain future conditions? How will changing water resources impact food production, energy resources, ecosystems, and human health? What water resources data are of high value to society and are they easily accessible? Input on existing tools, resources, or potential partnerships that could be used to further develop content and fill gaps in the Water Resources CRT is welcome. We also invite ideas for water resources 'innovation challenges', in which technology developers work to create tools to that enhance the capacity of communities and managers to increase resilience of water resources at the local and regional scales.

Xanthos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2017-05-30

Xanthos is a Python package designed to quantify and analyze global water availability in history and in future at 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution and a monthly time step under a changing climate. Its performance was also tested through real applications. It is open-source, extendable and convenient to researchers who work on long-term climate data for studies of global water supply, and Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). This package integrates inherent global gridded data maps, I/O modules, Water-Balance Model modules and diagnostics modules by user-defined configuration.

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss the pros and cons of available algorithms, address various sources of uncertainty and highlight limitations in current applications. We conclude that current capability of large-scale models to represent human water demands is rather limited, particularly with respect to future projections and coupled land-atmospheric simulations. To fill these gaps, the available models, algorithms and data for representing various water demands should be systematically tested, intercompared and improved. In particular, human water demands should be considered in conjunction with water supply and allocation, particularly in the face of water scarcity and unknown future climate.

Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

2015-01-01

We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

The impacts of climate change on global irrigation water requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

2011-12-01

Climate change tends to affect the irrigation water requirement of current irrigated agricultural land, and also changes the water availability for current rain-fed land by the end of this century. We use the most up-to-date climatic and crop datasets (e.g., global irrigated/rain-fed crop areas and grid level crop growing calendar (Portmann, Siebert and Döll, 2010, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 24)) to evaluate the requirements of currently irrigated land and the water deficit for rain-fed land for all major crops under current and projected climate. Six general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B & B1, are assembled using two methods, the Simple Average Method (SAM) and Root Mean Square Error Ensemble Method (RMSEMM), to deal with the GCM regional variability. It is found that the global irrigation requirement and the water deficit are both going to increase significantly under all scenarios, particularly under the A1B emission scenario. For example, the projected irrigation requirement is expected to increase by about 2500 million m3 for wheat, 3200 million m3 for maize and another 3300 million m3 for rice. At the same time, the water deficit for current rain-fed cropland will be widened by around 3000, 4000, 2100 million m3 for wheat, maize and rice respectively. Regional analysis is conducted for Africa, China, Europe, India, South America and the United States. It is found that the U.S. may expect the greatest rise in irrigation requirements for wheat and maize, while the South America may suffer the greatest increase for rice. In addition, Africa and the U.S. may face a larger water deficit for both wheat and maize on rain-fed land, and South America just for rice. In summary, climate change is likely to bring severe challenges for irrigation systems and make global water shortage even worse by the end of this century. These pressures will call for extensive adaptation measures. The change in crop water requirements and availability will lead to changes in regional food production, demand and trade, and will affect global food markets. It is also likely that the network and paths of the so-called global virtual water flow will be altered due to the impact of climate change on food production at the regional level.

Regional carbon sequestration and climate change: It’s all about water

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Steve McNulty; Eric Ward; Jean-Christophe Domec; Asko Noormets

2013-01-01

Forests need a lot of water to produce the goods (e.g., timber) and services (e.g., carbon sequestration and climate moderation) that benefit humans. Forests grow naturally in water-rich regions where precipitation is abundant or where groundwater is available, such as riparian areas in arid regions. For example, loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.)...

Facing climate change in forests and fields

Treesearch

Amy Daniels; Nancy Shaw; Dave Peterson; Keith Nislow; Monica Tomosy; Mary Rowland

2014-01-01

As a growing body of science shows, climate change impacts on wildlife are already profound - from shifting species' ranges and altering the synchronicity of food sources to changing the availability of water. Such impacts are only expected to increase in the coming decades. As climate change shapes complex, interwoven ecological processes, novel conditions and...

Temporal changes in the vertical distribution of flow and chloride in deep wells.

PubMed

Izbicki, John A; Christensen, Allen H; Newhouse, Mark W; Smith, Gregory A; Hanson, Randall T

2005-01-01

The combination of flowmeter and depth-dependent water-quality data was used to evaluate the quantity and source of high-chloride water yielded from different depths to eight production wells in the Pleasant Valley area of southern California. The wells were screened from 117 to 437 m below land surface, and in most cases, flow from the aquifer into the wells was not uniformly distributed throughout the well screen. Wells having as little as 6 m of screen in the overlying upper aquifer system yielded as much as 50% of their water from the upper system during drought periods, while the deeper parts of the well screens yielded 15% or less of the total yield of the wells. Mixing of water within wells during pumping degraded higher-quality water with poorer-quality water from deeper depths, and in some cases with poorer-quality water from the overlying upper aquifer system. Changes in the mixture of water within a well, resulting from changes in the distribution of flow into the well, changed the quality of water from the surface discharge of wells over time. The combination of flowmeter and depth-dependent water quality data yielded information about sources of high-chloride water to wells that was not available on the basis of samples collected from nearby observation wells. Changing well design to eliminate small quantities of poor-quality water from deeper parts of the well may improve the quality of water from some wells without greatly reducing well yield.

People, lakes and seashores: Studies from the Baltic Sea basin and adjacent areas in the early and Mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groß, Daniel; Zander, Annabell; Boethius, Adam; Dreibrodt, Stefan; Grøn, Ole; Hansson, Anton; Jessen, Catherine; Koivisto, Satu; Larsson, Lars; Lübke, Harald; Nilsson, Björn

2018-04-01

During the Early and Mid-Holocene significant changes in the ecology and socio-cultural spheres occurred around the Baltic Sea. Because of the underlying climatic changes and thus environmental alterations, the area was the scene for various cultural developments during the period under investigation. In the course of the melting of the glaciers at the end of the last Ice Age, isostatic and eustatic movements caused continual changes to the Baltic Sea basin. Changes in water level, however, affected not only the Early and Mid-Holocene coastlines, but also the whole Baltic Sea drainage system, including large lakes, rivers and watersheds in the hinterland were also dramatically impacted by these ecological changes. Prehistoric people were thus affected by changes in resource availability and reduction or enlargement of their territories, respectively. In order to evaluate the impact of changes in the water and land networks on the environment, resource availability, and human behaviour, and to reconstruct human responses to these changes, we pursue an interdisciplinary approach connecting environmental and archaeological research highlighted through different case studies.

Modelling impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Hooghly and Mahanadi river systems in India and Bangladesh.

PubMed

Whitehead, Paul G; Jin, Li; Macadam, Ian; Janes, Tamara; Sarkar, Sananda; Rodda, Harvey J E; Sinha, Rajiv; Nicholls, Robert J

2018-09-15

The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River System, the associated Hooghly River and the Mahanadi River System represent the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 780 million. The rivers are of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as they provide fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and support the Delta System in the Bay of Bengal. Future changes in both climate and socio-economics have been investigated to assess whether these will alter river flows and water quality. Climate datasets downscaled from three different Global Climate Models have been used to drive a daily process based flow and water quality model. The results suggest that due to climate change the flows will increase in the monsoon period and also be enhanced in the dry season. However, once socio-economic changes are also considered, increased population, irrigation, water use and industrial development reduce water availability in drought conditions, threatening water supplies and posing a threat to river and coastal ecosystems. This study, as part of the DECCMA (Deltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation) project, also addresses water quality issues, particularly nutrients (N and P) and their transport along the rivers and discharge into the Delta System. Climate will alter flows, increasing flood flows and changing pollution dilution factors in the rivers, as well as other key processes controlling water quality. Socio-economic change will affect water quality, as water diversion strategies, increased population and industrial development alter the water balance and enhance fluxes of nutrients from agriculture, urban centers and atmospheric deposition. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional Water Table (1998) and Ground-Water-Level Changes in the Mojave River, and the Morongo Ground-Water Basins, San Bernardino County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Gregory A.; Pimentel, M. Isabel

2000-01-01

The Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The rapid and continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The continuing collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water systems and, consequently, water availability. During 1998 the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,370 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from 450 wells, providing coverage for most of both basins. Twenty-three hydrographs show long-term (as much as 70 years) water-level trends throughout the basins. To help show effects of late seasonal recharge along the Mojave River, 14 short-term (13 years) hydrographs were created. A water-level change map was compiled to enable comparison of 1996 and 1998 water levels. The Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins had little change in water levels between 1996 and 1998 - with the exception of the areas of the Yucca Valley affected by artificial recharge. Other water-level changes were localized and reflected pumping or measurements made before seasonal recharge. Three areas of perched ground water were identified: El Mirage Lake (dry), Adelanto, and Lucerne Valley.

Evaluating Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Water Resources in Semiarid Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanlon, B. R.; Faunt, C. C.; Pool, D. R.; Reedy, R. C.

2017-12-01

Land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes play an integral role in water resources by controlling the partitioning of water at the land surface. Here we evaluate impacts of changing LU/LC on water resources in response to climate variation and change and land use change related to agriculture using data from semiarid regions in the southwestern U.S. Land cover changes in response to climate can amplify or dampen climate impacts on water resources. Changes from wet Pleistocene to much drier Holocene climate resulted in expansion of perennial vegetation, amplifying climate change impacts on water resources by reducing groundwater recharge as shown in soil profiles in the southwestern U.S.. In contrast, vegetation response to climate extremes, including droughts and floods, dampen impacts of these extremes on water resources, as shown by water budget monitoring in the Mojave Desert. Agriculture often involves changes from native perennial vegetation to annual crops increasing groundwater recharge in many semiarid regions. Irrigation based on conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater increases water resource availability, as shown in the Central Valley of California and in southern Arizona. Surface water irrigation in these regions is enhanced by water transported from more humid settings through extensive pipelines. These projects have reversed long-term declining groundwater trends in some regions. While irrigation design has often focused on increased efficiency, "more crop per drop", optimal water resource management may benefit more from inefficient (e.g. flood irrigation) surface-water irrigation combined with efficient (e.g. subsurface drip) irrigation to maximize groundwater recharge, as seen in parts of the Central Valley. Flood irrigation of perennial crops, such as almonds and vineyards, during winter is being considered in the Central Valley to enhance groundwater recharge. Managed aquifer recharge can be considered a special case of conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater use where spreading basins focus recharge in southern California and Arizona. This overview highlights the importance of changes in LU/LC in controlling water budgets in semiarid regions. Understanding these controls should allow us to better manage water resources.

Climate Change and Water Scarcity: The Case of Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

DeNicola, Erica; Aburizaiza, Omar S; Siddique, Azhar; Khwaja, Haider; Carpenter, David O

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to bring increases in average global temperatures (1.4°C-5.8°C [34.52°F-42.44°F] by 2100) and precipitation levels to varying degrees around the globe. The availability and quality of water will be severely affected, and public health threats from the lack of this valuable resource will be great unless water-scarce nations are able to adapt. Saudi Arabia provides a good example of how the climate and unsustainable human activity go hand in hand in creating stress on and depleting water resources, and an example for adaptation and mitigation. A search of the English literature addressing climate change, water scarcity, human health, and related topics was conducted using online resources and databases accessed through the University at Albany, State University of New York library web page. Water scarcity, which encompasses both water availability and water quality, is an important indicator of health. Beyond drinking, water supply is intimately linked to food security, sanitation, and hygiene, which are primary contributors to the global burden of disease. Poor and disadvantaged populations are the ones who will suffer most from the negative effects of climate change on water supply and associated human health issues. Examples of adaptation and mitigation measures that can help reduce the strain on conventional water resources (surface waters and fossil aquifers or groundwater) include desalination, wastewater recycling and reuse, and outsourcing food items or "virtual water trade." These are strategies being used by Saudi Arabia, a country that is water poor primarily due to decades of irresponsible irrigation practices. The human and environmental health risks associated with these adaptation measures are examined. Finally, strategies to protect human health through international collaboration and the importance of these efforts are discussed. International, multidisciplinary cooperation and collaboration will be needed to promote global water security and to protect human health, particularly in low-income countries that do not have the resources necessary to adapt on their own. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of 1972 and 1996 water levels in the Goleta central ground-water subbasin, Santa Barbara County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaehler, Charles A.; Pratt, David A.; Paybins, Katherine S.

1997-01-01

Ground-water levels for 1996 were compared with 1972 water levels to determine if a "drought buffer" currently exists. The drought buffer was defined previously, in a litigated settlement involving the Goleta Water District, as the 1972 water level in the Central ground-water subbasin. To make this deter mination, a network of 15 well sites was selected, water levels were measured monthly from April through December 1996, and the 1996 water-level data were compared with1972 data. The study was done in cooperation with the Goleta Water District. The 1972-1996 water-level-altitude changes for corresponding months of the comparison years were averaged for each network well. These averaged changes ranged from a rise of 9.4 ft for well 2N2 to a decline of 45.0 ft for well 8K8. The results of the comparison indicate a rise in water level at 1 site (well 2N2) and a decline at 14 sites. The mean of the 14 negative average values was a decline of 24.0 ft. The altitude of the bottom of well 2N2 was higher than the bottom altitudes at the other network sites, and this well is located a few feet from a fault that acts as a hydrologic barrier. The results of the water-level comparison for the Central subbasin were influenced to some unknown degree by the areal distribution of the set of wells selected for the network and the vertical dis tribution of the perforated intervals of the wells. For this reason, the mean water-level change--a decline of 21.8 ft--calculated from the averages of the month-to-month changes for the 15 network sites, should be used with caution. In addition, the number of usable individual monthly comparison measurements available for an individual site ranged from one to nine, and averaged six. Therefore, a weighted mean of the monthly averages was calculated on the basis of the number of comparison measurements available for each site. The weighted mean is a decline of 20.9 ft. All Central subbasin wells that were idle (that is, were not being pumped) when measured in 1972 and that were measureable in 1996 were included in the network. Therefore, the network is the most inclusive possible, given the available data. The objective of the study strictly was to compare 1972 and 1996 water levels in the Central sub basin, and the conclusion is that, overall, 1996 water levels are lower than 1972 levels. In general, hydro graphs for selected network wells indicate stable or rising water levels during 1972-83, declining levels during 1984-92, and rising water levels during 1993-96.

Water availability and environmental temperature correlate with geographic variation in water balance in common lizards.

PubMed

Dupoué, Andréaz; Rutschmann, Alexis; Le Galliard, Jean François; Miles, Donald B; Clobert, Jean; DeNardo, Dale F; Brusch, George A; Meylan, Sandrine

2017-12-01

Water conservation strategies are well documented in species living in water-limited environments, but physiological adaptations to water availability in temperate climate environments are still relatively overlooked. Yet, temperate species are facing more frequent and intense droughts as a result of climate change. Here, we examined variation in field hydration state (plasma osmolality) and standardized evaporative water loss rate (SEWL) of adult male and pregnant female common lizards (Zootoca vivipara) from 13 natural populations with contrasting air temperature, air humidity, and access to water. We found different patterns of geographic variation between sexes. Overall, males were more dehydrated (i.e. higher osmolality) than pregnant females, which likely comes from differences in field behaviour and water intake since the rate of SEWL was similar between sexes. Plasma osmolality and SEWL rate were positively correlated with environmental temperature in males, while plasma osmolality in pregnant females did not correlate with environmental conditions, reproductive stage or reproductive effort. The SEWL rate was significantly lower in populations without access to free standing water, suggesting that lizards can adapt or adjust physiology to cope with habitat dryness. Environmental humidity did not explain variation in water balance. We suggest that geographic variation in water balance physiology and behaviour should be taken account to better understand species range limits and sensitivity to climate change.

WaterSMART-The Colorado River Basin focus-area study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bruce, Breton W.

2012-01-01

Increasing demand for the limited water resources of the United States continues to put pressure on water-resource agencies to balance the competing needs of ecosystem health with municipal, agricultural, and recreational uses. In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) identified a National Water Census as one of six pivotal future science directions for the USGS in the following decade. The envisioned USGS National Water Census would evaluate large-scale effects of changes in land use and land cover, water use, and climate on water availability, water quality, and human and aquatic ecosystem health. The passage of the SECURE (Science and Engineering to Comprehensively Understand and Responsibly Enhance) Water Act in 2009 was a key step towards implementing the USGS National Water Census. Section 9508 of the Act authorizes a "national water availability and use assessment program" within the USGS (1) to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States; and (2) to develop the science for improved forecasts of the availability of water for future economic, energy production, and environmental uses. Initial funding for the USGS to begin working on the National Water Census came with the approval of the U.S. Department of the Interior's WaterSMART (Sustain and Manage America's Resources for Tomorrow) Initiative. The WaterSMART Initiative provides funding to the USGS, Bureau of Reclamation, and U.S. Department of Energy to achieve a sustainable water strategy to meet the Nation's water needs. WaterSMART funding also allowed the USGS to begin the national Water Availability and Use Assessment, as called for under the SECURE Water Act.

Multi-Scale Simulations of Past and Future Projections of Hydrology in Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.; Dettinger, M. D.; Rajagopal, S.; Gardner, M.; Morton, C. G.; Reeves, D. M.; Pohll, G. M.

2013-12-01

Water resources in the Tahoe basin are susceptible to long-term climate change and extreme events because it is a middle-altitude, snow-dominated basin that experiences large inter-annual climate variations. Lake Tahoe provides critical water supply for its basin and downstream populations, but changes in water supply are obscured by complex climatic and hydrologic gradients across the high relief, geologically complex basin. An integrated surface and groundwater model of the Lake Tahoe basin has been developed using GSFLOW to assess the effects of climate change and extreme events on surface and groundwater resources. Key hydrologic mechanisms are identified with this model that explains recent changes in water resources of the region. Critical vulnerabilities of regional water-supplies and hazards also were explored. Maintaining a balance between (a) accurate representation of spatial features (e.g., geology, streams, and topography) and hydrologic response (i.e., groundwater, stream, lake, and wetland flows and storages), and (b) computational efficiency, is a necessity for the desired model applications. Potential climatic influences on water resources are analyzed here in simulations of long-term water-availability and flood responses to selected 100-year climate-model projections. GSFLOW is also used to simulate a scenario depicting an especially extreme storm event that was constructed from a combination of two historical atmospheric-river storm events as part of the USGS MultiHazards Demonstration Project. Historical simulated groundwater levels, streamflow, wetlands, and lake levels compare well with measured values for a 30-year historical simulation period. Results are consistent for both small and large model grid cell sizes, due to the model's ability to represent water table altitude, streams, and other hydrologic features at the sub-grid scale. Simulated hydrologic responses are affected by climate change, where less groundwater resources will be available during more frequent droughts. Simulated floods for the region indicate issues related to drainage in the developed areas around Lake Tahoe, and necessary dam releases that create downstream flood risks.

Response of the water status of soybean to changes in soil water potentials controlled by the water pressure in microporous tubes.

PubMed

Steinberg, S L; Henninger, D L

1997-12-01

Water transport through a microporous tube-soil-plant system was investigated by measuring the response of soil and plant water status to step change reductions in the water pressure within the tubes. Soybeans were germinated and grown in a porous ceramic 'soil' at a porous tube water pressure of -0.5 kpa for 28 d. During this time, the soil matric potential was nearly in equilibrium with tube water pressure. Water pressure in the porous tubes was then reduced to either -1.0, -1.5 or -2.0 kPa. Sap flow rates, leaf conductance and soil, root and leaf water potentials were measured before and after this change. A reduction in porous tube water pressure from -0.5 to -1.0 or -1.5 kPa did not result in any significant change in soil or plant water status. A reduction in porous tube water pressure to -2.0 kPa resulted in significant reductions in sap flow, leaf conductance, and soil, root and leaf water potentials. Hydraulic conductance, calculated as the transpiration rate/delta psi between two points in the water transport pathway, was used to analyse water transport through the tube-soil-plant continuum. At porous tube water pressures of -0.5 to-1.5 kPa soil moisture was readily available and hydraulic conductance of the plant limited water transport. At -2.0 kPa, hydraulic conductance of the bulk soil was the dominant factor in water movement.

Response of the water status of soybean to changes in soil water potentials controlled by the water pressure in microporous tubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, S. L.; Henninger, D. L.

1997-01-01

Water transport through a microporous tube-soil-plant system was investigated by measuring the response of soil and plant water status to step change reductions in the water pressure within the tubes. Soybeans were germinated and grown in a porous ceramic 'soil' at a porous tube water pressure of -0.5 kpa for 28 d. During this time, the soil matric potential was nearly in equilibrium with tube water pressure. Water pressure in the porous tubes was then reduced to either -1.0, -1.5 or -2.0 kPa. Sap flow rates, leaf conductance and soil, root and leaf water potentials were measured before and after this change. A reduction in porous tube water pressure from -0.5 to -1.0 or -1.5 kPa did not result in any significant change in soil or plant water status. A reduction in porous tube water pressure to -2.0 kPa resulted in significant reductions in sap flow, leaf conductance, and soil, root and leaf water potentials. Hydraulic conductance, calculated as the transpiration rate/delta psi between two points in the water transport pathway, was used to analyse water transport through the tube-soil-plant continuum. At porous tube water pressures of -0.5 to-1.5 kPa soil moisture was readily available and hydraulic conductance of the plant limited water transport. At -2.0 kPa, hydraulic conductance of the bulk soil was the dominant factor in water movement.

Testing the sensitivity of snowpack to climatic change in a large physiographically diverse watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, R. J.; Byrne, J. M.; Kienzle, S. W.; Sauchyn, D.

2009-12-01

Snowpack in mountain watersheds provide a large portion of fresh water for many human and ecosystem function. Given the sensitivity of snow processes to temperature, it is likely that available water from snowpack will be reduced under future climate warming. It is important to understand how mountain environments will respond to changes in climate in order to properly manage water future resources. In order to assess potential changes in mountain snowpack and subsequent effects on water supply, we use a combination of hydrometeorological and general circulation models (GCMs). This work describes the application of the GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) spatial hydrometeorological model in simulating potential future changes in snowpack for the North Saskatchewan River watershed, Alberta. Snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River watershed supplies fresh water for over one million people and supports a wide range of ecosystem processes. To assess how snowpack may change in the watershed, scenarios from five GCMs are applied by perturbing the 1961-90 time series with mean changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2010-39, 2040-69 and 2070-99 periods. This study demonstrates that snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River watershed is highly susceptible to climate change and adaptive management strategies should be implemented to ensure sustainable water resources in the region.

Potential effects of landscape change on water supplies in the presence of reservoir storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guswa, Andrew J.; Hamel, Perrine; Dennedy-Frank, P. James

2017-04-01

This work presents a set of methods to evaluate the potential effects of landscape changes on water supplies. Potential impacts are a function of the seasonality of precipitation, losses of water to evapotranspiration and deep recharge, the flow-regulating ability of watersheds, and the availability of reservoir storage. For a given reservoir capacity, simple reservoir simulations with daily precipitation and streamflow enable the determination of the maximum steady supply of water for both the existing watershed and a hypothetical counter-factual that has neither flow-regulating benefits nor any losses. These two supply values, representing land use end-members, create an envelope that defines the water-supply service and bounds the effect of landscape change on water supply. These bounds can be used to discriminate between water supplies that may be vulnerable to landscape change and those that are unlikely to be affected. Two indices of the water-supply service exhibit substantial variability across 593 watersheds in the continental United States. Rcross, the reservoir capacity at which landscape change is unlikely to have any detrimental effect on water supply has an interquartile range of 0.14-4% of mean-annual-streamflow. Steep, forested watersheds with seasonal climates tend to have greater service values, and the indices of water-supply service are positively correlated with runoff ratios during the months with lowest flows.

Why Does a Shift in Precipitation from Snow Towards Rain Lead to a Decrease in Long Term Mean River Flow?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, R. A.

2017-12-01

Empirical evidence suggests that a shift in precipitation from snow towards rain leads to a strong decrease in long term mean river flow, for a diverse set of snow-dominated catchments across the USA (Berghuijs et al, 2014, Nature Climate Change). Mutually inconsistent hypotheses have been proposed, but no comprehensive explanations are available to explain the observations. Why does less snow apparently lead to less river flow and more evaporation? Is it caused by changes in snow cover, soil freezing, infiltration processes, timing of plant water uptake or something else? Which processes are important where? Solving this scientific puzzle will have significant follow-on impacts for hydrological models, flood risk assessment, seasonal water forecasts, and climate change impacts on water availability, ecosystem functions and other systems impacted by long-term reductions in river flow and evaporation, and their feedbacks to the water cycle.A large international research collaboration (CHIPPER, 35 groups from 15 countries) has formed to make a joint contribution to improved understanding of links between the phase of precipitation and the hydrological cycle, with a particular focus on water balance. This presentation will review progress since 2014 on the topic, outline intended future lines of investigation, and invite feedback and additional collaborations.

Why Does a Shift in Precipitation from Snow Towards Rain Lead to a Decrease in Long Term Mean River Flow?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Ross

2017-04-01

Empirical evidence suggests that a shift in precipitation from snow towards rain leads to a strong decrease in long term mean river flow, for a diverse set of snow-dominated catchments across the USA (Berghuijs et al, 2014, Nature Climate Change). Mutually inconsistent hypotheses have been proposed, but no comprehensive explanations are available to explain the observations. Why does less snow apparently lead to less river flow and more evaporation? Is it caused by changes in snow cover, soil freezing, infiltration processes, timing of plant water uptake or something else? Which processes are important where? Solving this scientific puzzle will have significant follow-on impacts for hydrological models, flood risk assessment, seasonal water forecasts, and climate change impacts on water availability, ecosystem functions and other systems impacted by long-term reductions in river flow and evaporation, and their feedbacks to the water cycle. A large international research collaboration (CHIPPER, 34 groups from 14 countries) has formed to make a joint contribution to improved understanding of links between the phase of precipitation and the hydrological cycle, with a particular focus on water balance. This presentation will review progress since 2014 on the topic, outline intended future lines of investigation, and invite feedback and additional collaborations.

Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau's climate system and its impact on East Asia.

PubMed

Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

2017-03-13

The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the "Third Pole" of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on "water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology" multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored.

Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau’s climate system and its impact on East Asia

PubMed Central

Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

2017-01-01

The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the “Third Pole” of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on “water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology” multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored. PMID:28287648

Elevated CO2 does not offset greater water stress predicted under climate change for native and exotic riparian plants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Morgan, Jack A.; LeCain, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

In semiarid western North American riparian ecosystems, increased drought and lower streamflows under climate change may reduce plant growth and recruitment, and favor drought-tolerant exotic species over mesic native species. We tested whether elevated atmospheric CO2 might ameliorate these effects by improving plant water-use efficiency. We examined the effects of CO2 and water availability on seedlings of two native (Populus deltoids spp. monilifera, Salix exigua) and three exotic (Elaeagnus angustifolia, Tamarix spp., Ulmus pumila) western North American riparian species in a CO2-controlled glasshouse, using 1-m-deep pots with different water-table decline rates. Low water availability reduced seedling biomass by 70–97%, and hindered the native species more than the exotics. Elevated CO2 increased biomass by 15%, with similar effects on natives and exotics. Elevated CO2 increased intrinsic water-use efficiency (Δ13Cleaf), but did not increase biomass more in drier treatments than wetter treatments. The moderate positive effects of elevated CO2 on riparian seedlings are unlikely to counteract the large negative effects of increased aridity projected under climate change. Our results suggest that increased aridity will reduce riparian seedling growth despite elevated CO2, and will reduce growth more for native Salix and Populus than for drought-tolerant exotic species.

Elevated CO2 does not offset greater water stress predicted under climate change for native and exotic riparian plants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Morgan, Jack A.; LeCain, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

* In semiarid western North American riparian ecosystems, increased drought and lower streamflows under climate change may reduce plant growth and recruitment, and favor drought-tolerant exotic species over mesic native species. We tested whether elevated atmospheric CO2 might ameliorate these effects by improving plant water-use efficiency. * We examined the effects of CO2 and water availability on seedlings of two native (Populus deltoides spp. monilifera, Salix exigua) and three exotic (Elaeagnus angustifolia, Tamarix spp., Ulmus pumila) western North American riparian species in a CO2-controlled glasshouse, using 1-m-deep pots with different water-table decline rates. * Low water availability reduced seedling biomass by 70–97%, and hindered the native species more than the exotics. Elevated CO2 increased biomass by 15%, with similar effects on natives and exotics. Elevated CO2 increased intrinsic water-use efficiency (Δ13Cleaf), but did not increase biomass more in drier treatments than wetter treatments. * The moderate positive effects of elevated CO2 on riparian seedlings are unlikely to counteract the large negative effects of increased aridity projected under climate change. Our results suggest that increased aridity will reduce riparian seedling growth despite elevated CO2, and will reduce growth more for native Salix and Populus than for drought-tolerant exotic species.

Elevated CO₂ does not offset greater water stress predicted under climate change for native and exotic riparian plants.

PubMed

Perry, Laura G; Shafroth, Patrick B; Blumenthal, Dana M; Morgan, Jack A; LeCain, Daniel R

2013-01-01

In semiarid western North American riparian ecosystems, increased drought and lower streamflows under climate change may reduce plant growth and recruitment, and favor drought-tolerant exotic species over mesic native species. We tested whether elevated atmospheric CO₂ might ameliorate these effects by improving plant water-use efficiency. We examined the effects of CO₂ and water availability on seedlings of two native (Populus deltoides spp. monilifera, Salix exigua) and three exotic (Elaeagnus angustifolia, Tamarix spp., Ulmus pumila) western North American riparian species in a CO₂-controlled glasshouse, using 1-m-deep pots with different water-table decline rates. Low water availability reduced seedling biomass by 70-97%, and hindered the native species more than the exotics. Elevated CO₂ increased biomass by 15%, with similar effects on natives and exotics. Elevated CO₂ increased intrinsic water-use efficiency (Δ¹³C(leaf) ), but did not increase biomass more in drier treatments than wetter treatments. The moderate positive effects of elevated CO₂ on riparian seedlings are unlikely to counteract the large negative effects of increased aridity projected under climate change. Our results suggest that increased aridity will reduce riparian seedling growth despite elevated CO₂, and will reduce growth more for native Salix and Populus than for drought-tolerant exotic species. No claim to original US government works. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

2015-12-01

The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

Variation in piñon pine growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress using an individual-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, M. D.; Kelsey, K.; Urza, A.; Barger, N. N.

2015-12-01

Forest and woodland ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle and may be strongly affected by changing climate. Here we use an individual-based approach to model piñon pine (Pinus edulis) radial growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress. We sampled piñon pine trees at 24 sites across southwestern Colorado that varied in soil available water capacity, elevation, and latitude, obtaining a total of 552 pinon pine tree ring series. We used linear mixed effect models to assess piñon pine growth responses to climate and site-level environmental stress (mean annual climatic water deficit and soil available water capacity). Using a similar modeling approach, we also determined long-term growth trends across our gradients of environmental stress. Piñon pine growth was strongly positively associated with winter precipitation and strongly negatively associated with summer vapor pressure deficit. However, the strength of the relationship between winter precipitation and piñon pine growth was affected by site-level environmental stress. Trees at sites with greater climatic water deficit (i.e. hotter, drier sites) were more sensitive to winter precipitation. Interestingly, trees at sites with greater soil available water capacity were also more sensitive to winter precipitation, as these trees had much higher growth rates during years of high precipitation. We found weak evidence of long-term declines in piñon growth rates over the past century within our study area. Growth trends overtime did vary across our soil available water capacity gradient: trees growing at sites with higher soil available water capacity responded more positively to the cool, wet climate conditions of the 1910s and 1980s, whereas tree growth rates at sites with lower soil available water capacity declined more linearly over the last century. Our findings suggest that the sensitivity of woodland ecosystems to changing climate will vary across the landscape due to differences in edaphic and physiographic factors. These results support recent dendroecology studies that emphasize the need to use a more individual-based approach to enhance our understanding of tree growth responses to climate.

The Potential Connectivity of Waterhole Networks and the Effectiveness of a Protected Area under Various Drought Scenarios

PubMed Central

O’Farrill, Georgina; Gauthier Schampaert, Kim; Rayfield, Bronwyn; Bodin, Örjan; Calmé, Sophie; Sengupta, Raja; Gonzalez, Andrew

2014-01-01

Landscape connectivity is considered a priority for ecosystem conservation because it may mitigate the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss. Climate change predictions suggest changes in precipitation regimes, which will affect the availability of water resources, with potential consequences for landscape connectivity. The Greater Calakmul Region of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) has experienced a 16% decrease in precipitation over the last 50 years, which we hypothesise has affected water resource connectivity. We used a network model of connectivity, for three large endangered species (Baird’s tapir, white-lipped peccary and jaguar), to assess the effect of drought on waterhole availability and connectivity in a forested landscape inside and adjacent to the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. We used reported travel distances and home ranges for our species to establish movement distances in our model. Specifically, we compared the effects of 10 drought scenarios on the number of waterholes (nodes) and the subsequent changes in network structure and node importance. Our analysis revealed that drought dramatically influenced spatial structure and potential connectivity of the network. Our results show that waterhole connectivity and suitable habitat (area surrounding waterholes) is lost faster inside than outside the reserve for all three study species, an outcome that may drive them outside the reserve boundaries. These results emphasize the need to assess how the variability in the availability of seasonal water resource may affect the viability of animal populations under current climate change inside and outside protected areas. PMID:24830392

The potential connectivity of waterhole networks and the effectiveness of a protected area under various drought scenarios.

PubMed

O'Farrill, Georgina; Gauthier Schampaert, Kim; Rayfield, Bronwyn; Bodin, Örjan; Calmé, Sophie; Sengupta, Raja; Gonzalez, Andrew

2014-01-01

Landscape connectivity is considered a priority for ecosystem conservation because it may mitigate the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss. Climate change predictions suggest changes in precipitation regimes, which will affect the availability of water resources, with potential consequences for landscape connectivity. The Greater Calakmul Region of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) has experienced a 16% decrease in precipitation over the last 50 years, which we hypothesise has affected water resource connectivity. We used a network model of connectivity, for three large endangered species (Baird's tapir, white-lipped peccary and jaguar), to assess the effect of drought on waterhole availability and connectivity in a forested landscape inside and adjacent to the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. We used reported travel distances and home ranges for our species to establish movement distances in our model. Specifically, we compared the effects of 10 drought scenarios on the number of waterholes (nodes) and the subsequent changes in network structure and node importance. Our analysis revealed that drought dramatically influenced spatial structure and potential connectivity of the network. Our results show that waterhole connectivity and suitable habitat (area surrounding waterholes) is lost faster inside than outside the reserve for all three study species, an outcome that may drive them outside the reserve boundaries. These results emphasize the need to assess how the variability in the availability of seasonal water resource may affect the viability of animal populations under current climate change inside and outside protected areas.

Aerial biomass and elemental changes in Atriplex canescens and A. acanthocarpa as affected by salinity and soil water availability

Treesearch

Ricardo Mata-Gonzalez; Ruben Melendez-Gonzalez; J. Jesus Martinez-Hernandez

2001-01-01

Atriplex canescens and A. acanthocarpa from the Chihuahuan Desert in Mexico were subjected to different salinity and irrigation treatments in a greenhouse study. Plants were grown in pots containing soil and irrigated with NaCl solutions of 0, 50, and 100 mM at 40 and 80 percent available soil water. Aerial biomass of A. canescens declined as NaCl treatments increased...

Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Bailey, Michael; Zemlick, Katie M.; Moreland, Barbara D.

2016-12-01

Consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development of new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.

Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Bailey, Michael; Zemlick, Katie M.

Here, consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development ofmore » new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.« less

Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection

DOE PAGES

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Bailey, Michael; Zemlick, Katie M.; ...

2016-11-21

Here, consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development ofmore » new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.« less

Estimating national water use associated with unconventional oil and gas development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, Janet M.; Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.; Thamke, Joanna N.; Delzer, Gregory C.

2016-05-18

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Water Availability and Use Science Program (WAUSP) goals are to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States and assist in the determination of the quantity and quality of water that is available for beneficial uses. These assessments would identify long-term trends or changes in water availability since the 1950s in the United States and help to develop the basis for an improved ability to forecast water avail- ability for future economic, energy-production, and environmental uses. The National Water Census (http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus/), a research program of the WAUSP, supports studies to develop new water accounting tools and assess water availability at the regional and national scales. Studies supported by this program target focus areas with identified water availability concerns and topical science themes related to the use of water within a specific type of environmental setting. The topical study described in this fact sheet will focus on understanding the relation between production of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) for energy and the water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development. This relation applies to the life-cycle of renewable and nonrenewable forms of UOG energy and includes extraction, production, refinement, delivery, and disposal of waste byproducts. Water-use data and models derived from this topical study will be applied to other similar oil and gas plays within the United States to help resource managers assess and account for water used or needed in these areas. Additionally, the results from this topical study will be used to further refine the methods used in compiling water-use data for selected categories (for example, mining, domestic self-supplied, public supply, and wastewater) in the USGS’s 5-year national water-use estimates reports (http://water.usgs.gov/watuse/).

Impact of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on the water resources of India: challenges in management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shadananan Nair, K.

2016-10-01

Freshwater resources of India are getting fast degraded and depleted from the changing climate and pressure of fast rising population. Changing intensity and seasonality of rainfall affect quantity and quality of water. Most of the rivers are polluted far above safety limits from the untreated domestic, industrial and agricultural effluents. Changes in the intensity, frequency and tracks of storms salinate coastal aquifers. Aquifers are also under the threat from rising sea level. Groundwater in urban limits and industrial zones are far beyond safety limits. Large-scale destruction of wetlands for industries and residential complexes has affected the quality of surface and groundwater resources in most parts of India. Measures to maintain food security and the new developments schemes such as river linking will further deteriorate the water resources. Falling water availability leads to serious health issues and various socio-economic issues. India needs urgent and appropriate adaptation strategies in the water sector.

Quantifying changes in water use and groundwater availability in a megacity using novel integrated systems modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyndman, D. W.; Xu, T.; Deines, J. M.; Cao, G.; Nagelkirk, R.; Viña, A.; McConnell, W.; Basso, B.; Kendall, A. D.; Li, S.; Luo, L.; Lupi, F.; Ma, D.; Winkler, J. A.; Yang, W.; Zheng, C.; Liu, J.

2017-08-01

Water sustainability in megacities is a growing challenge with far-reaching effects. Addressing sustainability requires an integrated, multidisciplinary approach able to capture interactions among hydrology, population growth, and socioeconomic factors and to reflect changes due to climate variability and land use. We developed a new systems modeling framework to quantify the influence of changes in land use, crop growth, and urbanization on groundwater storage for Beijing, China. This framework was then used to understand and quantify causes of observed decreases in groundwater storage from 1993 to 2006, revealing that the expansion of Beijing's urban areas at the expense of croplands has enhanced recharge while reducing water lost to evapotranspiration, partially ameliorating groundwater declines. The results demonstrate the efficacy of such a systems approach to quantify the impacts of changes in climate and land use on water sustainability for megacities, while providing a quantitative framework to improve mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help address future water challenges.

Higher Resolution for Water Resources Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumenil-Gates, L.

2009-12-01

The Earth system science community is providing an increasing range of science results for the benefit of achieving the Millennium Development Goals. In addressing questions such as reducing poverty and hunger, achieving sustainable global development, or by defining adaptation strategies for climate change, one of the key issues will be the quantitative description and understanding of the global water cycle, which will allow useful projections of available future water resources for several decades ahead. The quantities of global water cycle elements that we observe today - and deal with in hydrologic and atmospheric modeling - are already very different from the natural flows as human influence on the water cycle by storage, consumption and edifice has been going on for millennia, and climate change is expected to add more uncertainty. In this case Tony Blair’s comment that perhaps the most worrying problem is climate change does not cover the full story. We shall also have to quantify how the human demand for water resources and alterations of the various elements of the water cycle may proceed in the future: will there be enough of the precious water resource to sustain current and future demands by the various sectors involved? The topics that stakeholders and decision makers concerned with managing water resources are interested in cover a variety of human uses such as agriculture, energy production, ecological flow requirements to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services, or human cultural aspects, recreation and human well-being - all typically most relevant at the regional or local scales, this being quite different from the relatively large-scale that the IPCC assessment addresses. Halfway through the Millennium process, the knowledge base of the global water cycle is still limited. The sustainability of regional water resources is best assessed through a research program that combines high-resolution climate and hydrologic models for expected future scenarios (as in the IPCC ensembles) with appropriate observational data under current conditions in order to benchmark the models’ accuracy. Expected future changes in water availability could then be characterized and appropriate adaptation action designed in co-operation with the water use community. In situ observations of water cycle variables can also be used and developed together with remote sensing data from space to provide initial data for global seasonal or decadal forecasting and monitoring of global change in less well observed regions of the world.

Challenges and Opportunities for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into WaSH Development Planning in Ghana

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of Ghana. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. Despite awareness of climate change, adaptation measures have not been considered, and the immediate WaSH needs remain the priority. Overall, stakeholders felt the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning. PMID:28698518

Challenges and Opportunities for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into WaSH Development Planning in Ghana.

PubMed

Alhassan, Salley; Hadwen, Wade L

2017-07-10

Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of Ghana. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. Despite awareness of climate change, adaptation measures have not been considered, and the immediate WaSH needs remain the priority. Overall, stakeholders felt the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning.

Reliability of groundwater supply from a coastal aquifer in the context of climate and socio-economic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eley, Malte; Schöniger, Hans Matthias; Gelleszun, Marlene; Wolf, Jens; Schneider, Anke; Wiederhold, Helga; Meon, Günter

2017-04-01

Especially coastal areas are vulnerable in case of sea level rise and changing climate conditions. Therefore, the NAWAK study (design of sustainable adaptation strategies for infrastructures in water management under the conditions of climatic and demographic change) started in 2013. It is designed to assess impairments of groundwater availability for a coastal lowland aquifer system in North-West Germany (> 1.000 km2) in the context of climate and socio-economic changes. The research results are focused on the quantification of the groundwater availability for past and future scenarios. Impacts from both climatic and socio-economic changes on the water availability and water balance are assessed by means of hydrologic, hydrogeological and geophysical models and methods, which where developed and adapted by project partners. For the model area there are three fields of work to create the conditions for a density dependent calculation of changings in salt-freshwater budget with the numerical model d3f++ (distributed density-driven Flow). The first is the description of initial conditions in three dimensions, especially for the salt-freshwater boundary. That description is based on airborne electromagnetic data of the underground and a complex processing to identify the differences between salt and freshwater, without anthropogenic and geologic influences. A validation is possible by comparison with groundwater measurements and an online monitoring of specific conductivity. The second is the calculation and measurement of flow conditions to derive the boundary conditions and the groundwater recharge. The groundwater recharge was calculated by using the hydrologic model PANTA RHEI. It is a conceptual model with partly physic-based modules, especially for the soil water processes. The model was calibrated and validated by discharge measurements and groundwater levels. The third step is a detailed information about the spatial discretization and the reconstruction of the geologic body. The interpolation of point information's from boreholes and geologic sections was calculated with the geologic modelling software SubsurfaceViewerMX. For implementation in the groundwater model, the layers were combined to hydrogeological similar units. With this sophisticated models it is possible to model the density-dependent complex groundwater systems at large spatial scales as well as contaminant transport. The modeling analysis is focused on water-budget components (groundwater recharge, submarine groundwater discharge, surface-groundwater interaction and water supply), salt- water intrusion and sea level rise under different climate and water-use scenarios. With our models we offer the capability to evaluate possible coastal aquifer management strategies of real-world applications.

Identification of glacial melt water runoff in a karstic environment and its implication for present and future water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, D.; Hugentobler, A.; Huss, M.; Voinesco, A.; Wernli, H.; Fischer, D.; Weber, E.; Jeannin, P.-Y.; Kauzlaric, M.; Wirz, A.; Vennemann, T.; Hüsler, F.; Schädler, B.; Weingartner, R.

2013-03-01

Glaciers all over the world are expected to continue to retreat due to the global warming throughout the 21st century. Consequently, future seasonal water availability might become scarce once glacier areas have declined below a certain threshold affecting future water management strategies. Particular attention should be paid to glaciers located in a karstic environment, as parts of the melt water can be drained by souterrain karst systems. In this study tracer experiments, karst modeling and glacier melt modeling are combined in order to identify flow paths in a high alpine, glacierized, karstic environment (Glacier de la Plaine Morte, Switzerland) and to investigate current and predict future downstream water availability. Flow paths through the karst underground were determined with natural and fluorescent tracers. Subsequently, tracer results and geologic information were assembled in a karst model. Finally, glacier melt projections driven with a climate scenario were performed to discuss future water availability in the area surrounding the glacier. The results suggest that during late summer glacier melt water is rapidly drained through well-developed channels at the glacier bottom to the north of the glacier, while during low flow season melt water enters into the karst and is drained to the south. Climate change projections reveal that by the end of the century glacier melt will be significantly reduced in the summer, jeopardizing water availability in glacier-fed karst springs.

Integrating indigenous ecological and scientific hydro-geological knowledge using a Bayesian Network in the context of water resource development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liedloff, A. C.; Woodward, E. L.; Harrington, G. A.; Jackson, S.

2013-08-01

The contributions indigenous ecological knowledge can make to better inform water management decisions are currently undervalued leading to an underrepresentation of indigenous values in water planning and policy. This paper outlines a novel approach in which indigenous ecological knowledge informs cause and effect relationships between species and aquatic habitats to promote broader ecosystem understanding. A Bayesian Network was developed to synthesise the seasonal aquatic knowledge of a group of Gooniyandi Aboriginal language speakers, including fish species’ availability, condition and required habitat, and integrate it with hydrogeological understanding obtained from research undertaken in a stretch of the Fitzroy River, Western Australia. This river system, like most in northern Australia, is highly seasonal and entirely dependent upon groundwater for maintaining flow during prolonged dry seasons. We found that potential changes in river flow rates caused by future water resource development, such as groundwater extraction and surface water diversion, may have detrimental effects on the ability to catch the high value aquatic food species such as Barramundi and Sawfish, but also that species such as Black Bream may benefit. These findings result from changes in availability of habitats at times when Gooniyandi understanding shows they are important for providing aquatic resources in good condition. This study raises awareness of the potential outcomes of future water management and stimulates communication between indigenous people, the scientific community and water managers by developing a model of indigenous understanding from which to predict eco-hydrological change.

Hydrologic implications of GRACE satellite data in the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Reedy, Robert C.; Pool, Donald R.; Save, Himanshu; Long, Di; Chen, Jianli; Wolock, David M.; Conway, Brian D.; Winester, Daniel

2015-12-01

Use of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites for assessing global water resources is rapidly expanding. Here we advance application of GRACE satellites by reconstructing long-term total water storage (TWS) changes from ground-based monitoring and modeling data. We applied the approach to the Colorado River Basin which has experienced multiyear intense droughts at decadal intervals. Estimated TWS declined by 94 km3 during 1986-1990 and by 102 km3 during 1998-2004, similar to the TWS depletion recorded by GRACE (47 km3) during 2010-2013. Our analysis indicates that TWS depletion is dominated by reductions in surface reservoir and soil moisture storage in the upper Colorado basin with additional reductions in groundwater storage in the lower basin. Groundwater storage changes are controlled mostly by natural responses to wet and dry cycles and irrigation pumping outside of Colorado River delivery zones based on ground-based water level and gravity data. Water storage changes are controlled primarily by variable water inputs in response to wet and dry cycles rather than increasing water use. Surface reservoir storage buffers supply variability with current reservoir storage representing ˜2.5 years of available water use. This study can be used as a template showing how to extend short-term GRACE TWS records and using all available data on storage components of TWS to interpret GRACE data, especially within the context of droughts. This article was corrected on 12 JAN 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

Sustainability analysis of bioenergy based land use change under climate change and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.; Brouder, S. M.; Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Frankenberger, J.; Goforth, R. R.; Gramig, B. M.; Volenec, J. J.

2014-12-01

Sustainability analyses of futuristic plausible land use and climate change scenarios are critical in making watershed-scale decisions for simultaneous improvement of food, energy and water management. Bioenergy production targets for the US are anticipated to impact farming practices through the introduction of fast growing and high yielding perennial grasses/trees, and use of crop residues as bioenergy feedstocks. These land use/land management changes raise concern over potential environmental impacts of bioenergy crop production scenarios, both in terms of water availability and water quality; impacts that may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. The objective of the study was to assess environmental, economic and biodiversity sustainability of plausible bioenergy scenarios for two watersheds in Midwest US under changing climate scenarios. The study considers fourteen sustainability indicators under nine climate change scenarios from World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate perennial bioenergy crops such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and corn stover removal at various removal rates and their impacts on hydrology and water quality. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) developed to evaluate stream fish response to hydrology and water quality changes associated with land use change were used to quantify biodiversity sustainability of various bioenergy scenarios. The watershed-scale sustainability analysis was done in the St. Joseph River watershed located in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio; and the Wildcat Creek watershed, located in Indiana. The results indicate streamflow reduction at watershed outlet with increased evapotranspiration demands for high-yielding perennial grasses. Bioenergy crops in general improved in-stream water quality compared to conventional cropping systems (maize-soybean). Water quality benefits due to land use change were generally greater than the effects of climate change variability.

The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

2014-05-01

Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get an integrated analysis across different spatial scales. To fulfil the objectives of the ClimAware project, the following modelling methodology was implemented. Starting from a European modelling approach of water availability and use based on the WaterGAP3 model, the changes in the hydrologic regimes and water use of different sectors were analysed. Subsequently three case studies were used to investigate the impacts of CC at a regional scale. Regional models from three different countries and focusing on three types of water management issues were developed: • Hydromorphology (Eder basin, Germany): By using different scenarios, the influence of CC on the hydromorphological characteristics of the River Weser according to the WFD was evaluated and proposals for implementation were given. The objective was to examine, on typical river sections, how the WFD objectives can be implemented under CC constraints. • Dam management (Seine basin, France): Water management on the River Seine for water supply and flood alleviation is partly based on the management of artificial reservoirs. The case study developed scenarios linking the impact of CC on water resources and the expected change on the uses and on the management of the system. • Agricultural water use (Apulia region, Italy): In this region, economic and demographic changes cause an increase in the demand for good-quality municipal and industrial water. Besides, changes in the agricultural practices increase the demand for water in the agricultural sector. Since water is scarce in this region, the study focuses on the agricultural sector, which has the largest water saving potential. The final assessment comprises a cross-scale integration between the European and regional modelling frameworks in order to facilitate knowledge transfer and to help establishing sustainable and integrated water resources management plans.

77 FR 19281 - Environmental Impacts Statements; Notice of Availability

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-30

..., FL, Central and Southern Florida Project, Broward County Water Preserve Areas, Updates Resulting from Policy Changes that occurred since 2007 Civil Works Board Approval, South Florida Water Management... for this project. EIS No. 20120089, Final EIS, USFS, CA, Greys Mountain Ecological Restoration Project...

PP-SWAT: A phython-based computing software for efficient multiobjective callibration of SWAT

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With enhanced data availability, distributed watershed models for large areas with high spatial and temporal resolution are increasingly used to understand water budgets and examine effects of human activities and climate change/variability on water resources. Developing parallel computing software...

Ecophysiological responses of three dominant species to experimental drought on the Colorado Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duniway, M.; Hoover, D. L.; Belnap, J.

2014-12-01

Water limitations in dryland ecosystems are predicted to intensify with climate change due to the combination of decreased precipitation and increased warming. Plants in these ecosystems may be living at or near their tolerance limits, and thus subtle changes in water availability may have dramatic effects on their performance. To examine the impacts of subtle, but chronic reductions in water availability, we established a network of 40 rainfall removal shelters across a range of plant communities, soil types and elevations in the Colorado Plateau. Each site consisted of a control plot receiving ambient precipitation paired with a drought plot that received a 35% precipitation reduction. After three years, we observed a range of ecosystem-level responses to the treatments by key plant functional types. The experimental drought had dramatic effects on the C3 grasses (mortality and cover changes), but the treatment effects were relatively minor for the C4 grasses (cover change only) and C3 shrubs (no treatment effects on cover or mortality). We investigated the mechanisms behind the relative drought tolerances of the latter two plant functional types by measuring the ecophysiological responses of three dominant species on the Colorado Plateau: Pleuraphis jamensii (C4 grass), Coleogyne ramosissima (C3 shrub) and Ephedra viridis (C3 shrub). During the 2014 growing season, we measured mid-day leaf water potential and net photosynthesis monthly for these dominant species under the control and drought treatments (n=5). We analyzed the effects of treatment, month and their interaction on these measurements using a mixed effects model for each species separately. Overall, P. jamensii was the most sensitive to drought of the three focal species as evidenced by significant effects of drought on both leaf water potential and net photosynthesis (30% reduction). Neither of the C3 shrubs had significant treatment effects on either ecophysiolgoical variable. These results provide mechanistic evidence behind the ecosystem-level effects; the drought treatments are causing stress in C4 grasses but not C3 shrubs. These results suggest that subtle but chronic changes in water availability may alter the structure and function of the Colorado Plateau ecosystem by differentially impacting key plant functional types.

Climate-mediated spatiotemporal variability in the terrestrial productivity across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Mahecha, M. D.; Reichstein, M.; Ciais, P.; Wattenbach, M.; Babst, F.; Frank, D.; Zang, C.

2013-11-01

Quantifying the interannual variability (IAV) of the terrestrial productivity and its sensitivity to climate is crucial for improving carbon budget predictions. However, the influence of climate and other mechanisms underlying the spatiotemporal patterns of IAV of productivity are not well understood. In this study we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of IAV of historical observations of crop yields, tree ring width, remote sensing retrievals of FAPAR and NDVI, and other variables relevant to the terrestrial productivity in Europe in tandem with a set of climate variables. Our results reveal distinct spatial patterns in the IAV of most variables linked to terrestrial productivity. In particular, we find higher IAV in water-limited regions of Europe (Mediterranean and temperate continental Europe) compared to other regions. Our results further indicate that variations in the water balance during active growing season exert a more pronounced and direct effect than variations of temperature on explaining the spatial patterns in IAV of productivity related variables in temperate Europe. We also observe a~temporally increasing trend in the IAV of terrestrial productivity and an increasing sensitivity of productivity to water availability in dry regions of Europe, which is likely attributable to the recently increased IAV of water availability in these regions. These findings suggest nonlinear responses of carbon fluxes to climate variability in Europe and that the IAV of terrestrial productivity has become more sensitive and more vulnerable to changes in water availability in the dry regions in Europe. The changing climate sensitivity of terrestrial productivity accompanied by the changing IAV of climate could impact carbon stocks and the net carbon balance of European ecosystems.

Satellite-derived temperature data for monitoring water status in a floodplain forest of the Upper Sabine River, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lemon, Mary Grace T.; Allen, Scott T.; Edwards, Brandon L.; King, Sammy L.; Keim, Richard F.

2016-01-01

Decreased water availability due to hydrologic modifications, groundwater withdrawal, and climate change threaten bottomland hardwood (BLH) forest communities. We used satellite-derived (MODIS) land-surface temperature (LST) data to investigate spatial heterogeneity of canopy temperature (an indicator of plant-water status) in a floodplain forest of the upper Sabine River for 2008–2014. High LST pixels were generally further from the river and at higher topographic locations, indicating lower water-availability. Increasing rainfall-derived soil moisture corresponded with decreased heterogeneity of LST between pixels but there was weaker association between Sabine River stage and heterogeneity. Stronger dependence of LST convergence on rainfall rather than river flow suggests that some regions are less hydrologically connected to the river, and vegetation may rely on local precipitation and other contributions to the riparian aquifer to replenish soil moisture. Observed LST variations associated with hydrology encourage further investigation of the utility of this approach for monitoring forest stress, especially with considerations of climate change and continued river management.

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Li, Cuihua; Naik, Naomi; Cook, Benjamin; Nakamura, Jennifer; Liu, Haibo

2012-01-01

Global warming driven by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations is expected to cause wet regions of the tropics and mid to high latitudes to get wetter and subtropical dry regions to get drier and expand polewards. Over southwest North America, models project a steady drop in precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P -- E, the net flux of water at the land surface, leading to, for example, a decline in Colorado River flow. This would cause widespread and important social and ecological consequences. Here, using new simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five, to be assessed in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report Five, we extend previous work by examining changes in P, E, runoff and soil moisture by season and for three different water resource regions. Focusing on the near future, 2021-2040, the new simulations project declines in surface-water availability across the southwest that translate into reduced soil moisture and runoff in California and Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and Texas.

Bioenergy costs and potentials with special attention to implications for the land system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Dietrich, J.; Klein, D.; Bauer, N.; Krause, M.; Beringer, T.; Gerten, D.

2011-12-01

In the coming decades, an increasing competition for global land and water resources can be expected, due to rising demand for agricultural products, goals of nature conservation, and changing production conditions due to climate change. Especially biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops, such as Miscanthus or poplar, is being proposed to play a substantial role in future energy systems if climate policy aims at stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration at low levels. However, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements, land availability for biomass plantations, and implications for the land system. In order to explore the cost-effective contribution of bioenergy to a low carbon transition with special attention to implications for the land system, we present a modeling framework with detailed biophysical and economic representation of the land and energy sector: We have linked the global dynamic vegetation and water balance model LPJmL (Bondeau et al. 2007, Rost et al. 2008), the global land and water use model MAgPIE (Lotze-Campen et al. 2008, Popp et al. 2010), and the global energy-economy-climate model ReMIND (Leimbach et al. 2009). In this modeling framework LPJmL supplies spatially explicit (0.5° resolution) agricultural yields as well as carbon and water stocks and fluxes. Based on this biophysical input MAgPIE delivers cost-optimized land use patterns (0.5° resolution), associated GHG emissions and rates of future yield increases in agricultural production. Moreover, shadow prices are calculated for irrigation water (as an indicator for water scarcity), food commodities, and bioenergy (as an indicator for changes in production costs) under different land use constraints such as forest conservation for climate change mitigation and as a contribution to biodiversity conservation. The energy-economy-climate model ReMIND generates the demand for bioenergy, taking into account the direct competition with other energy technology options for GHG mitigation, based on economic costs of bioenergy production. As a result, we find that bioenergy from specialized grassy and woody bioenergy crops can contribute approximately 100 EJ in 2055 and up to 300 EJ of primary energy in 2095. Protecting natural forests decreases biomass availability for energy production in the medium run, but not in the long run. Reducing the land available for agricultural use can partially be compensated for by higher rates of technological change in agriculture; however, bioenergy crops will occupy large shares of available cropland in both scenarios. In addition, our trade-off analysis indicates that forest protection combined with large-scale cultivation of dedicated bioenergy is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, but also to increase global food prices and increase water scarcity.

Forecasting regional grassland and shrubland responses to directional changes in climate using multi-year dry or wet periods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Although air temperatures are increasing, the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation (increase or decrease) are uncertain for many sites. Given that water availability is the primary driver...

Multiple-scale proximal sensor and remote imagery technology for sustaining agricultural productivity during climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in climatic patterns have had dramatic influence on agricultural areas worldwide, particularly in irrigated arid-zone agricultural areas subjected to recurring drought, such as California’s San Joaquin Valley. Climate change has impacted water availability, which subsequently has impacted so...

Forecasting regional grassland and shrubland responses to directional changes in climate using multi-year dry or wet period

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Although air temperatures are increasing, the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation (increase or decrease) are uncertain for many sites. Given that water availability is the primary driver...

Hydrologic Futures: Using Scenario Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forecasted Land Use Change on Hydrologic Services

EPA Science Inventory

Land cover and land use changes can substantially alter hydrologic ecosystem services. Water availability and quality can change with modifications to the type or amount of surface vegetation, the permeability of soil and other surfaces, and the introduction of contaminants throu...