Sample records for choice models

  1. Money Earlier or Later? Simple Heuristics Explain Intertemporal Choices Better than Delay Discounting1

    PubMed Central

    Marzilli Ericson, Keith M.; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D.

    2015-01-01

    Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains of choice. We compare heuristic models of intertemporal choice, which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies, to discounting models. We conduct an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of intertemporal choice models. Heuristic models outperform traditional utility discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best performing models predict choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative (percentage) differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We conclude that heuristic models explain time-money tradeoff choices in experiments better than utility discounting models. PMID:25911124

  2. Money earlier or later? Simple heuristics explain intertemporal choices better than delay discounting does.

    PubMed

    Ericson, Keith M Marzilli; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D

    2015-06-01

    Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains involving choice. We conducted an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of heuristic models of intertemporal choice (which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies) and discounting models. Heuristic models outperformed traditional utility-discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best-performing models predicted choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative percentage differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We concluded that heuristic models explain time-money trade-off choices in experiments better than do utility-discounting models. © The Author(s) 2015.

  3. Multialternative drift-diffusion model predicts the relationship between visual fixations and choice in value-based decisions.

    PubMed

    Krajbich, Ian; Rangel, Antonio

    2011-08-16

    How do we make decisions when confronted with several alternatives (e.g., on a supermarket shelf)? Previous work has shown that accumulator models, such as the drift-diffusion model, can provide accurate descriptions of the psychometric data for binary value-based choices, and that the choice process is guided by visual attention. However, the computational processes used to make choices in more complicated situations involving three or more options are unknown. We propose a model of trinary value-based choice that generalizes what is known about binary choice, and test it using an eye-tracking experiment. We find that the model provides a quantitatively accurate description of the relationship between choice, reaction time, and visual fixation data using the same parameters that were estimated in previous work on binary choice. Our findings suggest that the brain uses similar computational processes to make binary and trinary choices.

  4. A Probabilistic, Dynamic, and Attribute-wise Model of Intertemporal Choice

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Junyi; Busemeyer, Jerome R.

    2014-01-01

    Most theoretical and empirical research on intertemporal choice assumes a deterministic and static perspective, leading to the widely adopted delay discounting models. As a form of preferential choice, however, intertemporal choice may be generated by a stochastic process that requires some deliberation time to reach a decision. We conducted three experiments to investigate how choice and decision time varied as a function of manipulations designed to examine the delay duration effect, the common difference effect, and the magnitude effect in intertemporal choice. The results, especially those associated with the delay duration effect, challenged the traditional deterministic and static view and called for alternative approaches. Consequently, various static or dynamic stochastic choice models were explored and fit to the choice data, including alternative-wise models derived from the traditional exponential or hyperbolic discount function and attribute-wise models built upon comparisons of direct or relative differences in money and delay. Furthermore, for the first time, dynamic diffusion models, such as those based on decision field theory, were also fit to the choice and response time data simultaneously. The results revealed that the attribute-wise diffusion model with direct differences, power transformations of objective value and time, and varied diffusion parameter performed the best and could account for all three intertemporal effects. In addition, the empirical relationship between choice proportions and response times was consistent with the prediction of diffusion models and thus favored a stochastic choice process for intertemporal choice that requires some deliberation time to make a decision. PMID:24635188

  5. Market Assessment For Traveler Services, A Choice Modeling Study Phase Iii, Fast-Trac Deliverable, #16B: Final Choice Modeling Report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-02-12

    FAST-TRAC : THIS REPORT DESCRIBES THE CHOICE MODEL STUDY OF THE FAST-TRAC (FASTER AND SAFER TRAVEL THROUGH TRAFFIC ROUTING AND ADVANCED CONTROLS) OPERATIONAL TEST IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. CHOICE MODELING IS A STATED-PREFERENCE APPROACH IN WHICH RESP...

  6. The Dependent Poisson Race Model and Modeling Dependence in Conjoint Choice Experiments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruan, Shiling; MacEachern, Steven N.; Otter, Thomas; Dean, Angela M.

    2008-01-01

    Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…

  7. Predictors of Latina/o Community College Student Vocational Choice of STEM Fields: Testing of the STEM-Vocational Choice Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Joel D.

    2013-01-01

    This study confirmed appropriate measurement model fit for a theoretical model, the STEM vocational choice (STEM-VC) model. This model identifies exogenous factors that successfully predicted, at a statistically significant level, a student's vocational choice decision to pursue a STEM degree at transfer. The student population examined for this…

  8. Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

    PubMed

    Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2014-06-01

    Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  9. Modeling Mode Choice Behavior Incorporating Household and Individual Sociodemographics and Travel Attributes Based on Rough Sets Theory

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

    2014-01-01

    Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling. PMID:25431585

  10. Stated choice for transportation demand management models : using a disaggregate truth set to study predictive validity

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1997-01-01

    Discrete choice models have expanded the ability of transportation planners to forecast future trends. Where new services or policies are proposed, the stated-choice approach can provide an objective basis for forecasts. Stated-choice models are subj...

  11. Sequential and simultaneous choices: testing the diet selection and sequential choice models.

    PubMed

    Freidin, Esteban; Aw, Justine; Kacelnik, Alex

    2009-03-01

    We investigate simultaneous and sequential choices in starlings, using Charnov's Diet Choice Model (DCM) and Shapiro, Siller and Kacelnik's Sequential Choice Model (SCM) to integrate function and mechanism. During a training phase, starlings encountered one food-related option per trial (A, B or R) in random sequence and with equal probability. A and B delivered food rewards after programmed delays (shorter for A), while R ('rejection') moved directly to the next trial without reward. In this phase we measured latencies to respond. In a later, choice, phase, birds encountered the pairs A-B, A-R and B-R, the first implementing a simultaneous choice and the second and third sequential choices. The DCM predicts when R should be chosen to maximize intake rate, and SCM uses latencies of the training phase to predict choices between any pair of options in the choice phase. The predictions of both models coincided, and both successfully predicted the birds' preferences. The DCM does not deal with partial preferences, while the SCM does, and experimental results were strongly correlated to this model's predictions. We believe that the SCM may expose a very general mechanism of animal choice, and that its wider domain of success reflects the greater ecological significance of sequential over simultaneous choices.

  12. The evolution of mate choice: a dialogue between theory and experiment.

    PubMed

    Roff, Derek A

    2015-12-01

    Research on the evolution of mate choice has followed three avenues of investigation: (1) theoretical models of the evolution of preference and the preferred trait; (2) proposed models of mate choice; and (3) experiments and observations on mate choice, both in the laboratory and with free-ranging animals. However, there has been relatively little dialogue among these three areas. Most attempts to account for observations of mate choice using theoretical mate-choice models have focused only upon a subset of particular models and have generally failed to consider the difference between probabilistic and deterministic models. In this review, I outline the underlying reasoning of the commonly cited mate-choice models and review the conclusions of the empirical investigations. I present a brief outline of how one might go about testing these models. It remains uncertain if, in general, mate-choice models can be realistically analyzed. Although it is clear that females frequently discriminate among males, data also suggest that females may typically have a very limited number of males from which to choose. The extent to which female choice under natural conditions is relatively random because of limited opportunities remains an open question for the majority of species. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.

  13. Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

    PubMed Central

    Piantadosi, Steven T.; Hayden, Benjamin Y.

    2015-01-01

    Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are can be decomposed into additive functions) into a heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic) that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice. PMID:25914613

  14. A Conditional Curie-Weiss Model for Stylized Multi-group Binary Choice with Social Interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Opoku, Alex Akwasi; Edusei, Kwame Owusu; Ansah, Richard Kwame

    2018-04-01

    This paper proposes a conditional Curie-Weiss model as a model for decision making in a stylized society made up of binary decision makers that face a particular dichotomous choice between two options. Following Brock and Durlauf (Discrete choice with social interaction I: theory, 1955), we set-up both socio-economic and statistical mechanical models for the choice problem. We point out when both the socio-economic and statistical mechanical models give rise to the same self-consistent equilibrium mean choice level(s). Phase diagram of the associated statistical mechanical model and its socio-economic implications are discussed.

  15. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  16. Vocational Choice: A Decision Making Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauermann, Henry

    2005-01-01

    We propose a model of vocational choice that can be used for analyzing and guiding the decision processes underlying career and job choices. Our model is based on research in behavioral decision making (BDM), in particular the choice goals framework developed by Bettman, Luce, and Payne (1998). The basic model involves two major processes. First,…

  17. Impact of Retirement Choices of Early Career Marines: A Choice Analysis Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-03-01

    CHOICES OF EARLY CAREER MARINES: A CHOICE ANALYSIS MODEL by André G. La Taste Aaron Masaitis March 2013 Thesis Advisor: Michael Dixon... ANALYSIS MODEL 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) André G. La Taste, Aaron Masaitis 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate...system. The research will be conducted using a discrete choice analysis methodology that is often used to differentiate factors that lead to

  18. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research: background, theories, assumptions and applications.

    PubMed

    Arons, Alexander M M; Krabbe, Paul F M

    2013-02-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the area of health evaluation. They increasingly use discrete choice models based on random utility theory to derive values for healthcare goods or services. Recent attempts have been made to use discrete choice models as an alternative method to derive values for health states. In this article, various probabilistic choice models are described according to their underlying theory. A historical overview traces their development and applications in diverse fields. The discussion highlights some theoretical and technical aspects of the choice models and their similarity and dissimilarity. The objective of the article is to elucidate the position of each model and their applications for health-state valuation.

  19. Nested Logit Models for Multiple-Choice Item Response Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suh, Youngsuk; Bolt, Daniel M.

    2010-01-01

    Nested logit item response models for multiple-choice data are presented. Relative to previous models, the new models are suggested to provide a better approximation to multiple-choice items where the application of a solution strategy precedes consideration of response options. In practice, the models also accommodate collapsibility across all…

  20. Enhancing Consumer Choice: Are We Making Appropriate Recommendations?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Jinkook; Geistfeld, Loren V.

    1998-01-01

    This study used conjoint analysis to identify consumer choice models. Results suggest a need to base choice-making aids on ideal choice models if the aid is to lead consumers to decisions consistent with true preferences. (Author/JOW)

  1. Embodied Choice: How Action Influences Perceptual Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Lepora, Nathan F.; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    Embodied Choice considers action performance as a proper part of the decision making process rather than merely as a means to report the decision. The central statement of embodied choice is the existence of bidirectional influences between action and decisions. This implies that for a decision expressed by an action, the action dynamics and its constraints (e.g. current trajectory and kinematics) influence the decision making process. Here we use a perceptual decision making task to compare three types of model: a serial decision-then-action model, a parallel decision-and-action model, and an embodied choice model where the action feeds back into the decision making. The embodied model incorporates two key mechanisms that together are lacking in the other models: action preparation and commitment. First, action preparation strategies alleviate delays in enacting a choice but also modify decision termination. Second, action dynamics change the prospects and create a commitment effect to the initially preferred choice. Our results show that these two mechanisms make embodied choice models better suited to combine decision and action appropriately to achieve suitably fast and accurate responses, as usually required in ecologically valid situations. Moreover, embodied choice models with these mechanisms give a better account of trajectory tracking experiments during decision making. In conclusion, the embodied choice framework offers a combined theory of decision and action that gives a clear case that embodied phenomena such as the dynamics of actions can have a causal influence on central cognition. PMID:25849349

  2. Embodied choice: how action influences perceptual decision making.

    PubMed

    Lepora, Nathan F; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2015-04-01

    Embodied Choice considers action performance as a proper part of the decision making process rather than merely as a means to report the decision. The central statement of embodied choice is the existence of bidirectional influences between action and decisions. This implies that for a decision expressed by an action, the action dynamics and its constraints (e.g. current trajectory and kinematics) influence the decision making process. Here we use a perceptual decision making task to compare three types of model: a serial decision-then-action model, a parallel decision-and-action model, and an embodied choice model where the action feeds back into the decision making. The embodied model incorporates two key mechanisms that together are lacking in the other models: action preparation and commitment. First, action preparation strategies alleviate delays in enacting a choice but also modify decision termination. Second, action dynamics change the prospects and create a commitment effect to the initially preferred choice. Our results show that these two mechanisms make embodied choice models better suited to combine decision and action appropriately to achieve suitably fast and accurate responses, as usually required in ecologically valid situations. Moreover, embodied choice models with these mechanisms give a better account of trajectory tracking experiments during decision making. In conclusion, the embodied choice framework offers a combined theory of decision and action that gives a clear case that embodied phenomena such as the dynamics of actions can have a causal influence on central cognition.

  3. Choices and Changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students' Longitudinal Reflections about Their Choice of a STEM Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school…

  4. The effects of Georgia's Choice curricular reform model on third grade science scores on the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phemister, Art W.

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice reading curriculum on third grade science scores on the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test from 2002 to 2008. In assessing the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice curriculum model this causal comparative study examined the 105 elementary schools that implemented Georgia's Choice and 105 randomly selected elementary schools that did not elect to use Georgia's Choice. The Georgia's Choice reading program used intensified instruction in an effort to increase reading levels for all students. The study used a non-equivalent control group with a pretest and posttest design to determine the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice curriculum model. Findings indicated that third grade students in Non-Georgia's Choice schools outscored third grade students in Georgia's Choice schools across the span of the study.

  5. Discrete Choice Experiments: A Guide to Model Specification, Estimation and Software.

    PubMed

    Lancsar, Emily; Fiebig, Denzil G; Hole, Arne Risa

    2017-07-01

    We provide a user guide on the analysis of data (including best-worst and best-best data) generated from discrete-choice experiments (DCEs), comprising a theoretical review of the main choice models followed by practical advice on estimation and post-estimation. We also provide a review of standard software. In providing this guide, we endeavour to not only provide guidance on choice modelling but to do so in a way that provides a 'way in' for researchers to the practicalities of data analysis. We argue that choice of modelling approach depends on the research questions, study design and constraints in terms of quality/quantity of data and that decisions made in relation to analysis of choice data are often interdependent rather than sequential. Given the core theory and estimation of choice models is common across settings, we expect the theoretical and practical content of this paper to be useful to researchers not only within but also beyond health economics.

  6. A Bayesian hierarchical model for discrete choice data in health care.

    PubMed

    Antonio, Anna Liza M; Weiss, Robert E; Saigal, Christopher S; Dahan, Ely; Crespi, Catherine M

    2017-01-01

    In discrete choice experiments, patients are presented with sets of health states described by various attributes and asked to make choices from among them. Discrete choice experiments allow health care researchers to study the preferences of individual patients by eliciting trade-offs between different aspects of health-related quality of life. However, many discrete choice experiments yield data with incomplete ranking information and sparsity due to the limited number of choice sets presented to each patient, making it challenging to estimate patient preferences. Moreover, methods to identify outliers in discrete choice data are lacking. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical random effects rank-ordered multinomial logit model for discrete choice data. Missing ranks are accounted for by marginalizing over all possible permutations of unranked alternatives to estimate individual patient preferences, which are modeled as a function of patient covariates. We provide a Bayesian version of relative attribute importance, and adapt the use of the conditional predictive ordinate to identify outlying choice sets and outlying individuals with unusual preferences compared to the population. The model is applied to data from a study using a discrete choice experiment to estimate individual patient preferences for health states related to prostate cancer treatment.

  7. Response repetition biases in human perceptual decisions are explained by activity decay in competitive attractor models

    PubMed Central

    Bonaiuto, James J; de Berker, Archy; Bestmann, Sven

    2016-01-01

    Animals and humans have a tendency to repeat recent choices, a phenomenon known as choice hysteresis. The mechanism for this choice bias remains unclear. Using an established, biophysically informed model of a competitive attractor network for decision making, we found that decaying tail activity from the previous trial caused choice hysteresis, especially during difficult trials, and accurately predicted human perceptual choices. In the model, choice variability could be directionally altered through amplification or dampening of post-trial activity decay through simulated depolarizing or hyperpolarizing network stimulation. An analogous intervention using transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) over left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) yielded a close match between model predictions and experimental results: net soma depolarizing currents increased choice hysteresis, while hyperpolarizing currents suppressed it. Residual activity in competitive attractor networks within dlPFC may thus give rise to biases in perceptual choices, which can be directionally controlled through non-invasive brain stimulation. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.20047.001 PMID:28005007

  8. Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis: Classification vs. Discrete Choice Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giesen, Joachim; Mueller, Klaus; Taneva, Bilyana; Zolliker, Peter

    Conjoint analysis is a family of techniques that originated in psychology and later became popular in market research. The main objective of conjoint analysis is to measure an individual's or a population's preferences on a class of options that can be described by parameters and their levels. We consider preference data obtained in choice-based conjoint analysis studies, where one observes test persons' choices on small subsets of the options. There are many ways to analyze choice-based conjoint analysis data. Here we discuss the intuition behind a classification based approach, and compare this approach to one based on statistical assumptions (discrete choice models) and to a regression approach. Our comparison on real and synthetic data indicates that the classification approach outperforms the discrete choice models.

  9. The Answering Process for Multiple-Choice Questions in Collaborative Learning: A Mathematical Learning Model Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

  10. A comprehensive dwelling unit choice model accommodating psychological constructs within a search strategy for consideration set formation.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2015-12-01

    This study adopts a dwelling unit level of analysis and considers a probabilistic choice set generation approach for residential choice modeling. In doing so, we accommodate the fact that housing choices involve both characteristics of the dwelling u...

  11. Using Decision Trees for Estimating Mode Choice of Trips in Buca-Izmir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oral, L. O.; Tecim, V.

    2013-05-01

    Decision makers develop transportation plans and models for providing sustainable transport systems in urban areas. Mode Choice is one of the stages in transportation modelling. Data mining techniques can discover factors affecting the mode choice. These techniques can be applied with knowledge process approach. In this study a data mining process model is applied to determine the factors affecting the mode choice with decision trees techniques by considering individual trip behaviours from household survey data collected within Izmir Transportation Master Plan. From this perspective transport mode choice problem is solved on a case in district of Buca-Izmir, Turkey with CRISP-DM knowledge process model.

  12. Internet Access as a Structural Factor in Career Choice: A Comparison between Computing and Non-Computing Major Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lotriet, Hugo; Matthee, Machdel; Alexander, Patricia

    2011-01-01

    The career choice model of Adya and Kaiser posits the availability of technology resources as a structural element impacting on career choice. The model distinguishes between accessibility at school and at home. Based on this theoretical point of departure and by arguing a link between choice of major and choice of field of career, this paper…

  13. Hierarchical Diffusion Models for Two-Choice Response Times

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vandekerckhove, Joachim; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Lee, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    Two-choice response times are a common type of data, and much research has been devoted to the development of process models for such data. However, the practical application of these models is notoriously complicated, and flexible methods are largely nonexistent. We combine a popular model for choice response times--the Wiener diffusion…

  14. Predictors of Latina/o Community College Student Vocational Choice in STEM

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Joel D.; Starobin, Soko S.; Santos Laanan, Frankie

    2016-01-01

    This study confirmed appropriate measurement model fit for a theoretical model, the STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) vocational choice (STEM-VC) model. This model identified factors that successfully predicted a student's vocational choice decision to pursue a STEM degree for Latina/o and White community college students.…

  15. Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

    2004-01-01

    Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

  16. Design and analysis of simple choice surveys for natural resource management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fieberg, John; Cornicelli, Louis; Fulton, David C.; Grund, Marrett D.

    2010-01-01

    We used a simple yet powerful method for judging public support for management actions from randomized surveys. We asked respondents to rank choices (representing management regulations under consideration) according to their preference, and we then used discrete choice models to estimate probability of choosing among options (conditional on the set of options presented to respondents). Because choices may share similar unmodeled characteristics, the multinomial logit model, commonly applied to discrete choice data, may not be appropriate. We introduced the nested logit model, which offers a simple approach for incorporating correlation among choices. This forced choice survey approach provides a useful method of gathering public input; it is relatively easy to apply in practice, and the data are likely to be more informative than asking constituents to rate attractiveness of each option separately.

  17. Modeling Confidence Judgments, Response Times, and Multiple Choices in Decision Making: Recognition Memory and Motion Discrimination

    PubMed Central

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2014-01-01

    Confidence in judgments is a fundamental aspect of decision making, and tasks that collect confidence judgments are an instantiation of multiple-choice decision making. We present a model for confidence judgments in recognition memory tasks that uses a multiple-choice diffusion decision process with separate accumulators of evidence for the different confidence choices. The accumulator that first reaches its decision boundary determines which choice is made. Five algorithms for accumulating evidence were compared, and one of them produced proportions of responses for each of the choices and full response time distributions for each choice that closely matched empirical data. With this algorithm, an increase in the evidence in one accumulator is accompanied by a decrease in the others so that the total amount of evidence in the system is constant. Application of the model to the data from an earlier experiment (Ratcliff, McKoon, & Tindall, 1994) uncovered a relationship between the shapes of z-transformed receiver operating characteristics and the behavior of response time distributions. Both are explained in the model by the behavior of the decision boundaries. For generality, we also applied the decision model to a 3-choice motion discrimination task and found it accounted for data better than a competing class of models. The confidence model presents a coherent account of confidence judgments and response time that cannot be explained with currently popular signal detection theory analyses or dual-process models of recognition. PMID:23915088

  18. Model-based choices involve prospective neural activity

    PubMed Central

    Doll, Bradley B.; Duncan, Katherine D.; Simon, Dylan A.; Shohamy, Daphna; Daw, Nathaniel D.

    2015-01-01

    Decisions may arise via “model-free” repetition of previously reinforced actions, or by “model-based” evaluation, which is widely thought to follow from prospective anticipation of action consequences using a learned map or model. While choices and neural correlates of decision variables sometimes reflect knowledge of their consequences, it remains unclear whether this actually arises from prospective evaluation. Using functional MRI and a sequential reward-learning task in which paths contained decodable object categories, we found that humans’ model-based choices were associated with neural signatures of future paths observed at decision time, suggesting a prospective mechanism for choice. Prospection also covaried with the degree of model-based influences on neural correlates of decision variables, and was inversely related to prediction error signals thought to underlie model-free learning. These results dissociate separate mechanisms underlying model-based and model-free evaluation and support the hypothesis that model-based influences on choices and neural decision variables result from prospection. PMID:25799041

  19. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

    Treesearch

    Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

    2010-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

  20. Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

    PubMed Central

    Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-01-01

    Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Methods: Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration–response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O3)-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration–response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA’s 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3. Results: Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O3-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O3-related human health effects resulting from climate change. PMID:22796531

  1. The Stay/Switch Model of Concurrent Choice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacDonall, James S.

    2009-01-01

    This experiment compared descriptions of concurrent choice by the stay/switch model, which says choice is a function of the reinforcers obtained for staying at and for switching from each alternative, and the generalized matching law, which says choice is a function of the total reinforcers obtained at each alternative. For the stay/switch model…

  2. Eye Movements in Strategic Choice

    PubMed Central

    Gächter, Simon; Noguchi, Takao; Mullett, Timothy L.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract In risky and other multiattribute choices, the process of choosing is well described by random walk or drift diffusion models in which evidence is accumulated over time to threshold. In strategic choices, level‐k and cognitive hierarchy models have been offered as accounts of the choice process, in which people simulate the choice processes of their opponents or partners. We recorded the eye movements in 2 × 2 symmetric games including dominance‐solvable games like prisoner's dilemma and asymmetric coordination games like stag hunt and hawk–dove. The evidence was most consistent with the accumulation of payoff differences over time: we found longer duration choices with more fixations when payoffs differences were more finely balanced, an emerging bias to gaze more at the payoffs for the action ultimately chosen, and that a simple count of transitions between payoffs—whether or not the comparison is strategically informative—was strongly associated with the final choice. The accumulator models do account for these strategic choice process measures, but the level‐k and cognitive hierarchy models do not. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:27513881

  3. Children's Conceptions of Career Choice and Attainment: Model Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howard, Kimberly A. S.; Walsh, Mary E.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a model of children's conceptions of two key career development processes: career choice and career attainment. The model of children's understanding of career choice and attainment was constructed with developmental research and theory into children's understanding of allied phenomena such as their understanding of illness,…

  4. Human X-chromosome inactivation pattern distributions fit a model of genetically influenced choice better than models of completely random choice

    PubMed Central

    Renault, Nisa K E; Pritchett, Sonja M; Howell, Robin E; Greer, Wenda L; Sapienza, Carmen; Ørstavik, Karen Helene; Hamilton, David C

    2013-01-01

    In eutherian mammals, one X-chromosome in every XX somatic cell is transcriptionally silenced through the process of X-chromosome inactivation (XCI). Females are thus functional mosaics, where some cells express genes from the paternal X, and the others from the maternal X. The relative abundance of the two cell populations (X-inactivation pattern, XIP) can have significant medical implications for some females. In mice, the ‘choice' of which X to inactivate, maternal or paternal, in each cell of the early embryo is genetically influenced. In humans, the timing of XCI choice and whether choice occurs completely randomly or under a genetic influence is debated. Here, we explore these questions by analysing the distribution of XIPs in large populations of normal females. Models were generated to predict XIP distributions resulting from completely random or genetically influenced choice. Each model describes the discrete primary distribution at the onset of XCI, and the continuous secondary distribution accounting for changes to the XIP as a result of development and ageing. Statistical methods are used to compare models with empirical data from Danish and Utah populations. A rigorous data treatment strategy maximises information content and allows for unbiased use of unphased XIP data. The Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and likelihood ratio tests indicate that a model of genetically influenced XCI choice better fits the empirical data than models of completely random choice. PMID:23652377

  5. Influences That Affect First-Generation College Students' College Choice: A Qualitative Inquiry of Student Perceptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cresswell-Yeager, Tiffany J.

    2012-01-01

    College choice is the three-stage process of aspiring, searching and choosing to attend college. There are many models pertaining to college choice, however, this study uses the Hossler and Gallagher Model---aspiration, search and choice. This qualitative study explored first-generation college students' perceptions about the influences…

  6. How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

    PubMed

    Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

    2017-03-01

    Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    PubMed

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-10-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  8. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-01-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others’ benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making. PMID:26460812

  9. Estimation of an Occupational Choice Model when Occupations Are Misclassified

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sullivan, Paul

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an empirical occupational choice model that corrects for misclassification in occupational choices and measurement error in occupation-specific work experience. The model is used to estimate the extent of measurement error in occupation data and quantify the bias that results from ignoring measurement error in occupation codes…

  10. Analysis of strength-of-preference measures in dichotomous choice models

    Treesearch

    Donald F. Dennis; Peter Newman; Robert Manning

    2008-01-01

    Choice models are becoming increasingly useful for soliciting and analyzing multiple objective decisions faced by recreation managers and others interested in decisions involving natural resources. Choice models are used to estimate relative values for multiple aspects of natural resource management, not individually but within the context of other relevant decision...

  11. From Recurrent Choice to Skill Learning: A Reinforcement-Learning Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fu, Wai-Tat; Anderson, John R.

    2006-01-01

    The authors propose a reinforcement-learning mechanism as a model for recurrent choice and extend it to account for skill learning. The model was inspired by recent research in neurophysiological studies of the basal ganglia and provides an integrated explanation of recurrent choice behavior and skill learning. The behavior includes effects of…

  12. Mechanisms underlying the influence of saliency on value-based decisions

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Xiaomo; Mihalas, Stefan; Niebur, Ernst; Stuphorn, Veit

    2013-01-01

    Objects in the environment differ in their low-level perceptual properties (e.g., how easily a fruit can be recognized) as well as in their subjective value (how tasty it is). We studied the influence of visual salience on value-based decisions using a two alternative forced choice task, in which human subjects rapidly chose items from a visual display. All targets were equally easy to detect. Nevertheless, both value and salience strongly affected choices made and reaction times. We analyzed the neuronal mechanisms underlying these behavioral effects using stochastic accumulator models, allowing us to characterize not only the averages of reaction times but their full distributions. Independent models without interaction between the possible choices failed to reproduce the observed choice behavior, while models with mutual inhibition between alternative choices produced much better results. Mutual inhibition thus is an important feature of the decision mechanism. Value influenced the amount of accumulation in all models. In contrast, increased salience could either lead to an earlier start (onset model) or to a higher rate (speed model) of accumulation. Both models explained the data from the choice trials equally well. However, salience also affected reaction times in no-choice trials in which only one item was present, as well as error trials. Only the onset model could explain the observed reaction time distributions of error trials and no-choice trials. In contrast, the speed model could not, irrespective of whether the rate increase resulted from more frequent accumulated quanta or from larger quanta. Visual salience thus likely provides an advantage in the onset, not in the processing speed, of value-based decision making. PMID:24167161

  13. Think twice before you book? Modelling the choice of public vs private dentist in a choice experiment.

    PubMed

    Kiiskinen, Urpo; Suominen-Taipale, Anna Liisa; Cairns, John

    2010-06-01

    This study concerns the choice of primary dental service provider by consumers. If the health service delivery system allows individuals to choose between public-care providers or if complementary private services are available, it is typically assumed that utilisation is a three-stage decision process. The patient first makes a decision to seek care, and then chooses the service provider. The final stage, involving decisions over the amount and form of treatment, is not considered here. The paper reports a discrete choice experiment (DCE) designed to evaluate attributes affecting individuals' choice of dental-care provider. The feasibility of the DCE approach in modelling consumers' choice in the context of non-acute need for dental care is assessed. The aim is to test whether a separate two-stage logit, a multinomial logit, or a nested logit best fits the choice process of consumers. A nested logit model of indirect utility functions is estimated and inclusive value (IV) constraints are tested for modelling implications. The results show that non-trading behaviour has an impact on the choice of appropriate modelling technique, but is to some extent dependent on the choice of scenarios offered. It is concluded that for traders multinomial logit is appropriate, whereas for non-traders and on average the nested logit is the method supported by the analyses. The consistent finding in all subgroup analyses is that the traditional two-stage decision process is found to be implausible in the context of consumer's choice of dental-care provider.

  14. Fitting observed and theoretical choices - women's choices about prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome.

    PubMed

    Seror, Valerie

    2008-05-01

    Choices regarding prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome - the most frequent chromosomal defect - are particularly relevant to decision analysis, since women's decisions are based on the assessment of their risk of carrying a child with Down syndrome, and involve tradeoffs (giving birth to an affected child vs procedure-related miscarriage). The aim of this study, based on face-to-face interviews with 78 women aged 25-35 with prior experience of pregnancy, was to compare the women' expressed choices towards prenatal diagnosis with those derived from theoretical models of choice (expected utility theory, rank-dependent theory, and cumulative prospect theory). The main finding obtained in this study was that the cumulative prospect model fitted the observed choices best: both subjective transformation of probabilities and loss aversion, which are basic features of the cumulative prospect model, have to be taken into account to make the observed choices consistent with the theoretical ones.

  15. Changing choices in health care: implications for equity, efficiency and cost.

    PubMed

    Bevan, Gwyn; Helderman, Jan-Kees; Wilsford, David

    2010-07-01

    Although choice may be seen as an end in itself, the papers included in this special issue of Health Economics, Policy and Law, examine choice policies in European systems of health care, which aim to be effective instruments for ameliorating the systemic pressures from the iron triangle of equity, efficiency, and cost. Three papers consider the nature of differences between and within countries following the Beveridge and Bismarck models of financing and organising the delivery of care, and how choices are changing within different systems. Within countries following the Beveridge model, current policies in England, Denmark and Sweden emphasise increasing patient choice of provider. Within countries following the Bismarck model, current policies in France and Germany seek to restrict choice of specialists by introducing 'soft' gatekeeping; and in the Netherlands there is a system of managed competition with choice of insurer that, in principle, allows insurers to contract selectively with providers. A fourth paper considers how government policies that seek to restrict choice within systems of universal coverage have been subject to challenges in the courts. A commentary explores the implications of the fraught and complex nature of choices between insurers and providers of health care for designing effective choice policies.

  16. Constructing food choice decisions.

    PubMed

    Sobal, Jeffery; Bisogni, Carole A

    2009-12-01

    Food choice decisions are frequent, multifaceted, situational, dynamic, and complex and lead to food behaviors where people acquire, prepare, serve, give away, store, eat, and clean up. Many disciplines and fields examine decision making. Several classes of theories are applicable to food decision making, including social behavior, social facts, and social definition perspectives. Each offers some insights but also makes limiting assumptions that prevent fully explaining food choice decisions. We used constructionist social definition perspectives to inductively develop a food choice process model that organizes a broad scope of factors and dynamics involved in food behaviors. This food choice process model includes (1) life course events and experiences that establish a food choice trajectory through transitions, turning points, timing, and contexts; (2) influences on food choices that include cultural ideals, personal factors, resources, social factors, and present contexts; and (3) a personal system that develops food choice values, negotiates and balances values, classifies foods and situations, and forms/revises food choice strategies, scripts, and routines. The parts of the model dynamically interact to make food choice decisions leading to food behaviors. No single theory can fully explain decision making in food behavior. Multiple perspectives are needed, including constructionist thinking.

  17. Understanding Predisposition in College Choice: Toward an Integrated Model of College Choice and Theory of Reasoned Action

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan

    2006-01-01

    This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…

  18. Mate-choice copying in single and coupled women: the influence of mate acceptance and mate rejection decisions of other women.

    PubMed

    Deng, Yan; Zheng, Yong

    2015-01-26

    Studies of humans and non-human animals indicate that females tend to change the likelihood of choosing a potential mate based on the decisions of other females; this is known as mate-choice copying. In a sample of both single and coupled women, we examined the influence of other women's (model) mate-choice decisions, including mate acceptance and mate rejection, on participants' attractiveness ratings of men (target) and willingness of mate selection. We also examined whether different types of relationships between the target men and the model women affected mate-choice copying. We found that both the single and coupled women showed mate-choice copying, but their response patterns differed. The significant effects for single women were dependent on a decrease in attractiveness ratings when they perceived the models' mate rejection. However, the significant findings for coupled women relied on an increase in attractiveness ratings when they observed the models' mate acceptance. Furthermore, the relationship status between the target men and the model women affected the magnitude of mate-choice copying effects for the single women. Specifically, they showed less mate-choice copying when the targets and models were in a committed romantic relationship than when in a temporary relationship.

  19. Value-based choice: An integrative, neuroscience-informed model of health goals.

    PubMed

    Berkman, Elliot T

    2018-01-01

    Traditional models of health behaviour focus on the roles of cognitive, personality and social-cognitive constructs (e.g. executive function, grit, self-efficacy), and give less attention to the process by which these constructs interact in the moment that a health-relevant choice is made. Health psychology needs a process-focused account of how various factors are integrated to produce the decisions that determine health behaviour. I present an integrative value-based choice model of health behaviour, which characterises the mechanism by which a variety of factors come together to determine behaviour. This model imports knowledge from research on behavioural economics and neuroscience about how choices are made to the study of health behaviour, and uses that knowledge to generate novel predictions about how to change health behaviour. I describe anomalies in value-based choice that can be exploited for health promotion, and review neuroimaging evidence about the involvement of midline dopamine structures in tracking and integrating value-related information during choice. I highlight how this knowledge can bring insights to health psychology using illustrative case of healthy eating. Value-based choice is a viable model for health behaviour and opens new avenues for mechanism-focused intervention.

  20. Model-based influences on humans’ choices and striatal prediction errors

    PubMed Central

    Daw, Nathaniel D.; Gershman, Samuel J.; Seymour, Ben; Dayan, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2011-01-01

    Summary The mesostriatal dopamine system is prominently implicated in model-free reinforcement learning, with fMRI BOLD signals in ventral striatum notably covarying with model-free prediction errors. However, latent learning and devaluation studies show that behavior also shows hallmarks of model-based planning, and the interaction between model-based and model-free values, prediction errors and preferences is underexplored. We designed a multistep decision task in which model-based and model-free influences on human choice behavior could be distinguished. By showing that choices reflected both influences we could then test the purity of the ventral striatal BOLD signal as a model-free report. Contrary to expectations, the signal reflected both model-free and model-based predictions in proportions matching those that best explained choice behavior. These results challenge the notion of a separate model-free learner and suggest a more integrated computational architecture for high-level human decision-making. PMID:21435563

  1. A behavioural and neural evaluation of prospective decision-making under risk

    PubMed Central

    Symmonds, Mkael; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J.

    2010-01-01

    Making the best choice when faced with a chain of decisions requires a person to judge both anticipated outcomes and future actions. Although economic decision-making models account for both risk and reward in single choice contexts there is a dearth of similar knowledge about sequential choice. Classical utility-based models assume that decision-makers select and follow an optimal pre-determined strategy, irrespective of the particular order in which options are presented. An alternative model involves continuously re-evaluating decision utilities, without prescribing a specific future set of choices. Here, using behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, we studied human subjects in a sequential choice task and use these data to compare alternative decision models of valuation and strategy selection. We provide evidence that subjects adopt a model of re-evaluating decision utilities, where available strategies are continuously updated and combined in assessing action values. We validate this model by using simultaneously-acquired fMRI data to show that sequential choice evokes a pattern of neural response consistent with a tracking of anticipated distribution of future reward, as expected in such a model. Thus, brain activity evoked at each decision point reflects the expected mean, variance and skewness of possible payoffs, consistent with the idea that sequential choice evokes a prospective evaluation of both available strategies and possible outcomes. PMID:20980595

  2. A behavioral and neural evaluation of prospective decision-making under risk.

    PubMed

    Symmonds, Mkael; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J

    2010-10-27

    Making the best choice when faced with a chain of decisions requires a person to judge both anticipated outcomes and future actions. Although economic decision-making models account for both risk and reward in single-choice contexts, there is a dearth of similar knowledge about sequential choice. Classical utility-based models assume that decision-makers select and follow an optimal predetermined strategy, regardless of the particular order in which options are presented. An alternative model involves continuously reevaluating decision utilities, without prescribing a specific future set of choices. Here, using behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, we studied human subjects in a sequential choice task and use these data to compare alternative decision models of valuation and strategy selection. We provide evidence that subjects adopt a model of reevaluating decision utilities, in which available strategies are continuously updated and combined in assessing action values. We validate this model by using simultaneously acquired fMRI data to show that sequential choice evokes a pattern of neural response consistent with a tracking of anticipated distribution of future reward, as expected in such a model. Thus, brain activity evoked at each decision point reflects the expected mean, variance, and skewness of possible payoffs, consistent with the idea that sequential choice evokes a prospective evaluation of both available strategies and possible outcomes.

  3. Measuring and modeling travel well-being in a dynamic context.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-03-01

    Travel behavior models typically assume that people base their travel choices on time and cost : considerations and do not account sufficiently for qualitative factors that affect the choice. Travel : choices are however more likely to be motivated b...

  4. Emerging Australian Education Markets: A Discrete Choice Model of Taiwanese and Indonesian Student Intended Study Destination.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemp, Steven; Madden, Gary; Simpson, Michael

    1998-01-01

    Isolates factors influencing choice of Australia as a preferred destination for international students in emerging regional markets. Uses data obtained from a survey of students in Indonesia and Taiwan to estimate a U.S./Australia and rest-of-world/Australia discrete destination-choice model. This model identifies key factors determining country…

  5. Representing Heterogeneity in Structural Relationships Among Multiple Choice Variables Using a Latent Segmentation Approach

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Garikapati, Venu; Astroza, Sebastian; Pendyala, Ram M.

    Travel model systems often adopt a single decision structure that links several activity-travel choices together. The single decision structure is then used to predict activity-travel choices, with those downstream in the decision-making chain influenced by those upstream in the sequence. The adoption of a singular sequential causal structure to depict relationships among activity-travel choices in travel demand model systems ignores the possibility that some choices are made jointly as a bundle as well as the possible presence of structural heterogeneity in the population with respect to decision-making processes. As different segments in the population may adopt and follow different causalmore » decision-making mechanisms when making selected choices jointly, it would be of value to develop simultaneous equations model systems relating multiple endogenous choice variables that are able to identify population subgroups following alternative causal decision structures. Because the segments are not known a priori, they are considered latent and determined endogenously within a joint modeling framework proposed in this paper. The methodology is applied to a national mobility survey data set to identify population segments that follow different causal structures relating residential location choice, vehicle ownership, and car-share and mobility service usage. It is found that the model revealing three distinct latent segments best describes the data, confirming the efficacy of the modeling approach and the existence of structural heterogeneity in decision-making in the population. Future versions of activity-travel model systems should strive to incorporate such structural heterogeneity to better reflect varying decision processes across population subgroups.« less

  6. Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

    PubMed

    Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

    2009-06-01

    Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

  7. Economic rationality and health and lifestyle choices for people with diabetes.

    PubMed

    Baker, Rachel Mairi

    2006-11-01

    Economic rationality is traditionally represented by goal-oriented, maximising behaviour, or 'instrumental rationality'. Such a consequentialist, instrumental model of choice is often implicit in a biomedical approach to health promotion and education. The research reported here assesses the relevance of a broader conceptual framework of rationality, which includes 'procedural' and 'expressive' rationality as complements to an instrumental model of rationality, in a health context. Q methodology was used to derive 'factors' underlying health and lifestyle choices, based on a factor analysis of the results of a card sorting procedure undertaken by 27 adult respondents with type 2 diabetes in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. These factors were then compared with the rationality framework and the appropriateness of an extended model of economic rationality as a means of better understanding health and lifestyle choices was assessed. Taking a wider rational choice perspective, choices which are rendered irrational within a narrow-biomedical or strictly instrumental model, can be understood in terms of a coherent rationale, grounded in the accounts of respondents. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of rational choice theory and diabetes management and research.

  8. Transformation Model Choice in Nonlinear Regression Analysis of Fluorescence-based Serial Dilution Assays

    PubMed Central

    Fong, Youyi; Yu, Xuesong

    2016-01-01

    Many modern serial dilution assays are based on fluorescence intensity (FI) readouts. We study optimal transformation model choice for fitting five parameter logistic curves (5PL) to FI-based serial dilution assay data. We first develop a generalized least squares-pseudolikelihood type algorithm for fitting heteroscedastic logistic models. Next we show that the 5PL and log 5PL functions can approximate each other well. We then compare four 5PL models with different choices of log transformation and variance modeling through a Monte Carlo study and real data. Our findings are that the optimal choice depends on the intended use of the fitted curves. PMID:27642502

  9. Dynamic Response-by-Response Models of Matching Behavior in Rhesus Monkeys

    PubMed Central

    Lau, Brian; Glimcher, Paul W

    2005-01-01

    We studied the choice behavior of 2 monkeys in a discrete-trial task with reinforcement contingencies similar to those Herrnstein (1961) used when he described the matching law. In each session, the monkeys experienced blocks of discrete trials at different relative-reinforcer frequencies or magnitudes with unsignalled transitions between the blocks. Steady-state data following adjustment to each transition were well characterized by the generalized matching law; response ratios undermatched reinforcer frequency ratios but matched reinforcer magnitude ratios. We modelled response-by-response behavior with linear models that used past reinforcers as well as past choices to predict the monkeys' choices on each trial. We found that more recently obtained reinforcers more strongly influenced choice behavior. Perhaps surprisingly, we also found that the monkeys' actions were influenced by the pattern of their own past choices. It was necessary to incorporate both past reinforcers and past choices in order to accurately capture steady-state behavior as well as the fluctuations during block transitions and the response-by-response patterns of behavior. Our results suggest that simple reinforcement learning models must account for the effects of past choices to accurately characterize behavior in this task, and that models with these properties provide a conceptual tool for studying how both past reinforcers and past choices are integrated by the neural systems that generate behavior. PMID:16596980

  10. Trajectory-adaptive route choice models : specification, choice set generation, and estimation.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-03-01

    The objective of the research is to investigate adaptive route choice behavior using individuallevel route choice data from GPS (Global Positioning System) observations in a real-life : network, where a traveler could revise the route choice based up...

  11. Interacting holographic dark energy models: a general approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Som, S.; Sil, A.

    2014-08-01

    Dark energy models inspired by the cosmological holographic principle are studied in homogeneous isotropic spacetime with a general choice for the dark energy density . Special choices of the parameters enable us to obtain three different holographic models, including the holographic Ricci dark energy (RDE) model. Effect of interaction between dark matter and dark energy on the dynamics of those models are investigated for different popular forms of interaction. It is found that crossing of phantom divide can be avoided in RDE models for β>0.5 irrespective of the presence of interaction. A choice of α=1 and β=2/3 leads to a varying Λ-like model introducing an IR cutoff length Λ -1/2. It is concluded that among the popular choices an interaction of the form Q∝ Hρ m suits the best in avoiding the coincidence problem in this model.

  12. Wrong Answers on Multiple-Choice Achievement Tests: Blind Guesses or Systematic Choices?.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, J. C.

    A multi-faceted model for the selection of answers for multiple-choice tests was developed from the findings of a series of exploratory studies. This model implies that answer selection should be curvilinear. A series of models were tested for fit using the chi square procedure. Data were collected from 359 elementary school students ages 9-12.…

  13. A simple computational algorithm of model-based choice preference.

    PubMed

    Toyama, Asako; Katahira, Kentaro; Ohira, Hideki

    2017-08-01

    A broadly used computational framework posits that two learning systems operate in parallel during the learning of choice preferences-namely, the model-free and model-based reinforcement-learning systems. In this study, we examined another possibility, through which model-free learning is the basic system and model-based information is its modulator. Accordingly, we proposed several modified versions of a temporal-difference learning model to explain the choice-learning process. Using the two-stage decision task developed by Daw, Gershman, Seymour, Dayan, and Dolan (2011), we compared their original computational model, which assumes a parallel learning process, and our proposed models, which assume a sequential learning process. Choice data from 23 participants showed a better fit with the proposed models. More specifically, the proposed eligibility adjustment model, which assumes that the environmental model can weight the degree of the eligibility trace, can explain choices better under both model-free and model-based controls and has a simpler computational algorithm than the original model. In addition, the forgetting learning model and its variation, which assume changes in the values of unchosen actions, substantially improved the fits to the data. Overall, we show that a hybrid computational model best fits the data. The parameters used in this model succeed in capturing individual tendencies with respect to both model use in learning and exploration behavior. This computational model provides novel insights into learning with interacting model-free and model-based components.

  14. The Influence of Consumer Goals and Marketing Activities on Product Bundling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haijun, Wang

    Upon entering a store, consumers are faced with the questions of whether to buy, what to buy, and how much to buy. Consumers include products from different categories in their decision process. Product categories can be related in different ways. Product bundling is a process that involves the choice of at least two non-substitutable items. In this research, the consumers' explicit product bundling activity at the point of sale is focused. We focuses on the retailers' perspective and therefore leaves out consumers' brand choice decisions, concentrating on purchase incidence and quantity. At the base of the current model of the exist researches, we integrate behavioural choice analysis and predictive choice modelling through the underlying behavioural models, called random utility maximization (RUM) models. The methodological contribution of this research lies therein to combine a nested logit choice model with a latent variable factor model. We point out several limitations for both theory and practice at the end.

  15. PEER REVIEW FOR THE CONSUMER VEHICLE CHOICE MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) has recently sponsored the development of a Consumer Vehicle Choice Model (CVCM) by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The specification by OTAQ to ORNL for consumer choice mod...

  16. Exclusive queueing model including the choice of service windows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, Masahiro; Yanagisawa, Daichi; Nishinari, Katsuhiro

    2018-01-01

    In a queueing system involving multiple service windows, choice behavior is a significant concern. This paper incorporates the choice of service windows into a queueing model with a floor represented by discrete cells. We contrived a logit-based choice algorithm for agents considering the numbers of agents and the distances to all service windows. Simulations were conducted with various parameters of agent choice preference for these two elements and for different floor configurations, including the floor length and the number of service windows. We investigated the model from the viewpoint of transit times and entrance block rates. The influences of the parameters on these factors were surveyed in detail and we determined that there are optimum floor lengths that minimize the transit times. In addition, we observed that the transit times were determined almost entirely by the entrance block rates. The results of the presented model are relevant to understanding queueing systems including the choice of service windows and can be employed to optimize facility design and floor management.

  17. Incorporating social impact on new product adoption in choice modeing: A case study in green vehicles

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    He, Lin; Wang, Mingxian; Chen, Wei

    While discrete choice analysis is prevalent in capturing consumer preferences and describing their choice behaviors in product design, the traditional choice modeling approach assumes that each individual makes independent decisions, without considering the social impact. However, empirical studies show that choice is social - influenced by many factors beyond engineering performance of a product and consumer attributes. To alleviate this limitation, we propose a new choice modeling framework to capture the dynamic influence from social networks on consumer adoption of new products. By introducing social influence attributes into a choice utility function, social network simulation is integrated with the traditionalmore » discrete choice analysis in a three-stage process. Our study shows the need for considering social impact in forecasting new product adoption. Using hybrid electric vehicles as an example, our work illustrates the procedure of social network construction, social influence evaluation, and choice model estimation based on data from the National Household Travel Survey. Our study also demonstrates several interesting findings on the dynamic nature of new technology adoption and how social networks may influence hybrid electric vehicle adoption. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved« less

  18. The attentional drift-diffusion model extends to simple purchasing decisions.

    PubMed

    Krajbich, Ian; Lu, Dingchao; Camerer, Colin; Rangel, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    How do we make simple purchasing decisions (e.g., whether or not to buy a product at a given price)? Previous work has shown that the attentional drift-diffusion model (aDDM) can provide accurate quantitative descriptions of the psychometric data for binary and trinary value-based choices, and of how the choice process is guided by visual attention. Here we extend the aDDM to the case of purchasing decisions, and test it using an eye-tracking experiment. We find that the model also provides a reasonably accurate quantitative description of the relationship between choice, reaction time, and visual fixations using parameters that are very similar to those that best fit the previous data. The only critical difference is that the choice biases induced by the fixations are about half as big in purchasing decisions as in binary choices. This suggests that a similar computational process is used to make binary choices, trinary choices, and simple purchasing decisions.

  19. The Attentional Drift-Diffusion Model Extends to Simple Purchasing Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Krajbich, Ian; Lu, Dingchao; Camerer, Colin; Rangel, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    How do we make simple purchasing decisions (e.g., whether or not to buy a product at a given price)? Previous work has shown that the attentional drift-diffusion model (aDDM) can provide accurate quantitative descriptions of the psychometric data for binary and trinary value-based choices, and of how the choice process is guided by visual attention. Here we extend the aDDM to the case of purchasing decisions, and test it using an eye-tracking experiment. We find that the model also provides a reasonably accurate quantitative description of the relationship between choice, reaction time, and visual fixations using parameters that are very similar to those that best fit the previous data. The only critical difference is that the choice biases induced by the fixations are about half as big in purchasing decisions as in binary choices. This suggests that a similar computational process is used to make binary choices, trinary choices, and simple purchasing decisions. PMID:22707945

  20. Choice theories: What are they good for?☆

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Eric J.

    2013-01-01

    Simonson et al. present an ambitious sketch of an integrative theory of context. Provoked by this thoughtful proposal, I discuss what is the function of theories of choice in the coming decades. Traditionally, choice models and theory have attempted to predict choices as a function of the attributes of options. I argue that to be truly useful, they need to generate specific and quantitative predictions of the effect of the choice environment upon choice probability. To do this, we need to focus on rigorously modeling and measuring the underlying processes causing these effects, and use the Simonson et al. proposal to provide some examples. I also present some examples from research in decision-making and decision neuroscience, and argue that models that fail, and fail spectacularly are particularly useful. I close with a challenge: How would consumer researcher aid the design of real world choice environments such as the health exchanges under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act? PMID:23794793

  1. Choice Rules and Accumulator Networks

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a preference accumulation model that can be used to implement a number of different multi-attribute heuristic choice rules, including the lexicographic rule, the majority of confirming dimensions (tallying) rule and the equal weights rule. The proposed model differs from existing accumulators in terms of attribute representation: Leakage and competition, typically applied only to preference accumulation, are also assumed to be involved in processing attribute values. This allows the model to perform a range of sophisticated attribute-wise comparisons, including comparisons that compute relative rank. The ability of a preference accumulation model composed of leaky competitive networks to mimic symbolic models of heuristic choice suggests that these 2 approaches are not incompatible, and that a unitary cognitive model of preferential choice, based on insights from both these approaches, may be feasible. PMID:28670592

  2. Modeling Dynamic Food Choice Processes to Understand Dietary Intervention Effects.

    PubMed

    Marcum, Christopher Steven; Goldring, Megan R; McBride, Colleen M; Persky, Susan

    2018-02-17

    Meal construction is largely governed by nonconscious and habit-based processes that can be represented as a collection of in dividual, micro-level food choices that eventually give rise to a final plate. Despite this, dietary behavior intervention research rarely captures these micro-level food choice processes, instead measuring outcomes at aggregated levels. This is due in part to a dearth of analytic techniques to model these dynamic time-series events. The current article addresses this limitation by applying a generalization of the relational event framework to model micro-level food choice behavior following an educational intervention. Relational event modeling was used to model the food choices that 221 mothers made for their child following receipt of an information-based intervention. Participants were randomized to receive either (a) control information; (b) childhood obesity risk information; (c) childhood obesity risk information plus a personalized family history-based risk estimate for their child. Participants then made food choices for their child in a virtual reality-based food buffet simulation. Micro-level aspects of the built environment, such as the ordering of each food in the buffet, were influential. Other dynamic processes such as choice inertia also influenced food selection. Among participants receiving the strongest intervention condition, choice inertia decreased and the overall rate of food selection increased. Modeling food selection processes can elucidate the points at which interventions exert their influence. Researchers can leverage these findings to gain insight into nonconscious and uncontrollable aspects of food selection that influence dietary outcomes, which can ultimately improve the design of dietary interventions.

  3. Choice and explanation in medical management: a multiattribute model of artificial intelligence approaches.

    PubMed

    Rennels, G D; Shortliffe, E H; Miller, P L

    1987-01-01

    This paper explores a model of choice and explanation in medical management and makes clear its advantages and limitations. The model is based on multiattribute decision making (MADM) and consists of four distinct strategies for choice and explanation, plus combinations of these four. Each strategy is a restricted form of the general MADM approach, and each makes restrictive assumptions about the nature of the domain. The advantage of tailoring a restricted form of a general technique to a particular domain is that such efforts may better capture the character of the domain and allow choice and explanation to be more naturally modelled. The uses of the strategies for both choice and explanation are illustrated with analyses of several existing medical management artificial intelligence (AI) systems, and also with examples from the management of primary breast cancer. Using the model it is possible to identify common underlying features of these AI systems, since each employs portions of this model in different ways. Thus the model enables better understanding and characterization of the seemingly ad hoc decision making of previous systems.

  4. Model-based influences on humans' choices and striatal prediction errors.

    PubMed

    Daw, Nathaniel D; Gershman, Samuel J; Seymour, Ben; Dayan, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J

    2011-03-24

    The mesostriatal dopamine system is prominently implicated in model-free reinforcement learning, with fMRI BOLD signals in ventral striatum notably covarying with model-free prediction errors. However, latent learning and devaluation studies show that behavior also shows hallmarks of model-based planning, and the interaction between model-based and model-free values, prediction errors, and preferences is underexplored. We designed a multistep decision task in which model-based and model-free influences on human choice behavior could be distinguished. By showing that choices reflected both influences we could then test the purity of the ventral striatal BOLD signal as a model-free report. Contrary to expectations, the signal reflected both model-free and model-based predictions in proportions matching those that best explained choice behavior. These results challenge the notion of a separate model-free learner and suggest a more integrated computational architecture for high-level human decision-making. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Stated choice models for predicting the impact of user fees at public recreation sites

    Treesearch

    Herbert W. Schroeder; Jordan Louviere

    1999-01-01

    A crucial question in the implementation of fee programs is how the users of recreation sites will respond to various levels and types of fees. Stated choice models can help managers anticipate the impact of user fees on people's choices among the alternative recreation sites available to them. Models developed for both day and overnight trips to several areas and...

  6. Choice as a Global Language in Local Practice: A Mixed Model of School Choice in Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mao, Chin-Ju

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses school choice policy as an example to demonstrate how local actors adopt, mediate, translate, and reformulate "choice" as neo-liberal rhetoric informing education reform. Complex processes exist between global policy about school choice and the local practice of school choice. Based on the theoretical sensibility of…

  7. Alternative fuels and vehicles choice model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1994-10-01

    This report describes the theory and implementation of a model of alternative fuel and vehicle choice (AFVC), designed for use with the United States Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). The AFTM is a static equilibrium model ...

  8. The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning.

    PubMed

    Pedersen, Mads Lund; Frank, Michael J; Biele, Guido

    2017-08-01

    Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups.

  9. The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning

    PubMed Central

    Frank, Michael J.

    2017-01-01

    Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyper-activity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups. PMID:27966103

  10. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Vojnovic, Milan; Yun, Seyoung

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one ormore » more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.« less

  11. Determinants of choice, and vulnerability and recovery in addiction.

    PubMed

    Lamb, R J; Maguire, David R; Ginsburg, Brett C; Pinkston, Jonathan W; France, Charles P

    2016-06-01

    Addiction may be viewed as choice governed by competing contingencies. One factor impacting choice, particularly as it relates to addiction, is sensitivity to delayed rewards. Discounting of delayed rewards influences addiction vulnerability because of competition between relatively immediate gains of drug use, e.g. intoxication, versus relatively remote gains of abstinence, e.g. family stability. Factors modifying delay sensitivity can be modeled in the laboratory. For instance, increased delay sensitivity can be similarly observed in adolescent humans and non-human animals. Similarly, genetic factors influence delay sensitivity in humans and animals. Recovery from addiction may also be viewed as choice behavior. Thus, reinforcing alternative behavior facilitates recovery because reinforcing alternative behavior decreases the frequency of using drugs. How reinforcing alternative behavior influences recovery can also be modeled in the laboratory. For instance, relapse risk decreases as abstinence duration increases, and this decreasing risk can be modeled in animals using choice procedures. In summary, addiction in many respects can be conceptualized as a problem of choice. Animal models of choice disorders stand to increase our understanding of the core processes that establish and maintain addiction and serve as a proving ground for development of novel treatments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Determinants of choice, and vulnerability and recovery in addiction

    PubMed Central

    Lamb, R.J.; Maguire, David R.; Ginsburg, Brett C.; Pinkston, Jonathan W.; France, Charles P.

    2016-01-01

    Addiction may be viewed as choice governed by competing contingencies. One factor impacting choice, particularly as it relates to addiction, is sensitivity to delayed rewards. Discounting of delayed rewards influences addiction vulnerability because of competition between relatively immediate gains of drug use, e.g. intoxication, versus relatively remote gains of abstinence, e.g. family stability. Factors modifying delay sensitivity can be modeled in the laboratory. For instance, increased delay sensitivity can be similarly observed in adolescent humans and non-human animals. Similarly, genetic factors influence delay sensitivity in humans and animals. Recovery from addiction may also be viewed as choice behavior. Thus, reinforcing alternative behavior facilitates recovery because reinforcing alternative behavior decreases the frequency of using drugs. How reinforcing alternative behavior influences recovery can also be modeled in the laboratory. For instance, relapse risk decreases as abstinence duration increases, and this decreasing risk can be modeled in animals using choice procedures. In summary, addiction in many respects can be conceptualized as a problem of choice. Animal models of choice disorders stand to increase our understanding of the core processes that establish and maintain addiction and serve as a proving ground for development of novel treatments. PMID:27083500

  13. A developmental model of recreation choice behavior

    Treesearch

    Daniel R. Williams

    1985-01-01

    Recreation choices are viewed as including, at least implicitly, a selection of an activity, a setting, and a set of companions. With development these three elements become increasingly differentiated from one another. The model is tested by examining the perceived similarities among a set of 15 recreation choices depicted in color slides.

  14. Hierarchical competitions subserving multi-attribute choice

    PubMed Central

    Hunt, Laurence T; Dolan, Raymond J; Behrens, Timothy EJ

    2015-01-01

    Valuation is a key tenet of decision neuroscience, where it is generally assumed that different attributes of competing options are assimilated into unitary values. Such values are central to current neural models of choice. By contrast, psychological studies emphasize complex interactions between choice and valuation. Principles of neuronal selection also suggest competitive inhibition may occur in early valuation stages, before option selection. Here, we show behavior in multi-attribute choice is best explained by a model involving competition at multiple levels of representation. This hierarchical model also explains neural signals in human brain regions previously linked to valuation, including striatum, parietal and prefrontal cortex, where activity represents competition within-attribute, competition between attributes, and option selection. This multi-layered inhibition framework challenges the assumption that option values are computed before choice. Instead our results indicate a canonical competition mechanism throughout all stages of a processing hierarchy, not simply at a final choice stage. PMID:25306549

  15. NEUROBIOLOGY OF ECONOMIC CHOICE: A GOOD-BASED MODEL

    PubMed Central

    Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

    2012-01-01

    Traditionally the object of economic theory and experimental psychology, economic choice recently became a lively research focus in systems neuroscience. Here I summarize the emerging results and I propose a unifying model of how economic choice might function at the neural level. Economic choice entails comparing options that vary on multiple dimensions. Hence, while choosing, individuals integrate different determinants into a subjective value; decisions are then made by comparing values. According to the good-based model, the values of different goods are computed independently of one another, which implies transitivity. Values are not learned as such, but rather computed at the time of choice. Most importantly, values are compared within the space of goods, independent of the sensori-motor contingencies of choice. Evidence from neurophysiology, imaging and lesion studies indicates that abstract representations of value exist in the orbitofrontal and ventromedial prefrontal cortices. The computation and comparison of values may thus take place within these regions. PMID:21456961

  16. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    PubMed

    Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

    2016-06-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. Psychophysics of time perception and intertemporal choice models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Taiki; Oono, Hidemi; Radford, Mark H. B.

    2008-03-01

    Intertemporal choice and psychophysics of time perception have been attracting attention in econophysics and neuroeconomics. Several models have been proposed for intertemporal choice: exponential discounting, general hyperbolic discounting (exponential discounting with logarithmic time perception of the Weber-Fechner law, a q-exponential discount model based on Tsallis's statistics), simple hyperbolic discounting, and Stevens' power law-exponential discounting (exponential discounting with Stevens' power time perception). In order to examine the fitness of the models for behavioral data, we estimated the parameters and AICc (Akaike Information Criterion with small sample correction) of the intertemporal choice models by assessing the points of subjective equality (indifference points) at seven delays. Our results have shown that the orders of the goodness-of-fit for both group and individual data were [Weber-Fechner discounting (general hyperbola) > Stevens' power law discounting > Simple hyperbolic discounting > Exponential discounting], indicating that human time perception in intertemporal choice may follow the Weber-Fechner law. Indications of the results for neuropsychopharmacological treatments of addiction and biophysical processing underlying temporal discounting and time perception are discussed.

  18. Development of discrete choice model considering internal reference points and their effects in travel mode choice context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarif; Kurauchi, Shinya; Yoshii, Toshio

    2017-06-01

    In the conventional travel behavior models such as logit and probit, decision makers are assumed to conduct the absolute evaluations on the attributes of the choice alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers in cognitive psychology and marketing science have been suggesting that the perceptions of attributes are characterized by the benchmark called “reference points” and the relative evaluations based on them are often employed in various choice situations. Therefore, this study developed a travel behavior model based on the mental accounting theory in which the internal reference points are explicitly considered. A questionnaire survey about the shopping trip to the CBD in Matsuyama city was conducted, and then the roles of reference points in travel mode choice contexts were investigated. The result showed that the goodness-of-fit of the developed model was higher than that of the conventional model, indicating that the internal reference points might play the major roles in the choice of travel mode. Also shown was that the respondents seem to utilize various reference points: some tend to adopt the lowest fuel price they have experienced, others employ fare price they feel in perceptions of the travel cost.

  19. Lateral Orbitofrontal Inactivation Dissociates Devaluation-Sensitive Behavior and Economic Choice.

    PubMed

    Gardner, Matthew P H; Conroy, Jessica S; Shaham, Michael H; Styer, Clay V; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

    2017-12-06

    How do we choose between goods that have different subjective values, like apples and oranges? Neuroeconomics proposes that this is done by reducing complex goods to a single unitary value to allow comparison. This value is computed "on the fly" from the underlying model of the goods space, allowing decisions to meet current needs. This is termed "model-based" behavior to distinguish it from pre-determined, habitual, or "model-free" behavior. The lateral orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) supports model-based behavior in rats and primates, but whether the OFC is necessary for economic choice is less clear. Here we tested this question by optogenetically inactivating the lateral OFC in rats in a classic model-based task and during economic choice. Contrary to predictions, inactivation disrupted model-based behavior without affecting economic choice. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  1. A likelihood-based biostatistical model for analyzing consumer movement in simultaneous choice experiments.

    PubMed

    Zeilinger, Adam R; Olson, Dawn M; Andow, David A

    2014-08-01

    Consumer feeding preference among resource choices has critical implications for basic ecological and evolutionary processes, and can be highly relevant to applied problems such as ecological risk assessment and invasion biology. Within consumer choice experiments, also known as feeding preference or cafeteria experiments, measures of relative consumption and measures of consumer movement can provide distinct and complementary insights into the strength, causes, and consequences of preference. Despite the distinct value of inferring preference from measures of consumer movement, rigorous and biologically relevant analytical methods are lacking. We describe a simple, likelihood-based, biostatistical model for analyzing the transient dynamics of consumer movement in a paired-choice experiment. With experimental data consisting of repeated discrete measures of consumer location, the model can be used to estimate constant consumer attraction and leaving rates for two food choices, and differences in choice-specific attraction and leaving rates can be tested using model selection. The model enables calculation of transient and equilibrial probabilities of consumer-resource association, which could be incorporated into larger scale movement models. We explore the effect of experimental design on parameter estimation through stochastic simulation and describe methods to check that data meet model assumptions. Using a dataset of modest sample size, we illustrate the use of the model to draw inferences on consumer preference as well as underlying behavioral mechanisms. Finally, we include a user's guide and computer code scripts in R to facilitate use of the model by other researchers.

  2. Design and Development of a User Interface for the Dynamic Model of Software Project Management.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-03-01

    rectory of the user’s choice for future...the last choice selected. Let us assume for the sake of this tour that the user has selected all eight choices . ESTIMATED ACTUAL PROJECT SIZE DEFINITION...manipulation of varaibles in the * •. TJin~ca model "h ... ser Inter ace for the Dynamica model was designed b in iterative process of prototyping

  3. An aggregate method to calibrate the reference point of cumulative prospect theory-based route choice model for urban transit network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yufeng; Long, Man; Luo, Sida; Bao, Yu; Shen, Hanxia

    2015-12-01

    Transit route choice model is the key technology of public transit systems planning and management. Traditional route choice models are mostly based on expected utility theory which has an evident shortcoming that it cannot accurately portray travelers' subjective route choice behavior for their risk preferences are not taken into consideration. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT), a brand new theory, can be used to describe travelers' decision-making process under the condition of uncertainty of transit supply and risk preferences of multi-type travelers. The method to calibrate the reference point, a key parameter to CPT-based transit route choice model, determines the precision of the model to a great extent. In this paper, a new method is put forward to obtain the value of reference point which combines theoretical calculation and field investigation results. Comparing the proposed method with traditional method, it shows that the new method can promote the quality of CPT-based model by improving the accuracy in simulating travelers' route choice behaviors based on transit trip investigation from Nanjing City, China. The proposed method is of great significance to logical transit planning and management, and to some extent makes up the defect that obtaining the reference point is solely based on qualitative analysis.

  4. Patient or physician preferences for decision analysis: the prenatal genetic testing decision.

    PubMed

    Heckerling, P S; Verp, M S; Albert, N

    1999-01-01

    The choice between amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling for prenatal genetic testing involves tradeoffs of the benefits and risks of the tests. Decision analysis is a method of explicitly weighing such tradeoffs. The authors examined the relationship between prenatal test choices made by patients and the choices prescribed by decision-analytic models based on their preferences, and separate models based on the preferences of their physicians. Preferences were assessed using written scenarios describing prenatal testing outcomes, and were recorded on linear rating scales. After adjustment for sociodemographic and obstetric confounders, test choice was significantly associated with the choice of decision models based on patient preferences (odds ratio 4.44; Cl, 2.53 to 7.78), but not with the choice of models based on the preferences of the physicians (odds ratio 1.60; Cl, 0.79 to 3.26). Agreement between decision analyses based on patient preferences and on physician preferences was little better than chance (kappa = 0.085+/-0.063). These results were robust both to changes in the decision-analytic probabilities and to changes in the model structure itself to simulate non-expected utility decision rules. The authors conclude that patient but not physician preferences, incorporated in decision models, correspond to the choice of amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling made by the patient. Nevertheless, because patient preferences were assessed after referral for genetic testing, prospective preference-assessment studies will be necessary to confirm this association.

  5. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

    PubMed

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

    2013-02-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models.

  6. Does cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine choice vary across the U.S.? An agent-based modeling study.

    PubMed

    DePasse, Jay V; Nowalk, Mary Patricia; Smith, Kenneth J; Raviotta, Jonathan M; Shim, Eunha; Zimmerman, Richard K; Brown, Shawn T

    2017-07-13

    In a prior agent-based modeling study, offering a choice of influenza vaccine type was shown to be cost-effective when the simulated population represented the large, Washington DC metropolitan area. This study calculated the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the same four strategies: No Choice, Pediatric Choice, Adult Choice, or Choice for Both Age Groups in five United States (U.S.) counties selected to represent extremes in population age distribution. The choice offered was either inactivated influenza vaccine delivered intramuscularly with a needle (IIV-IM) or an age-appropriate needle-sparing vaccine, specifically, the nasal spray (LAIV) or intradermal (IIV-ID) delivery system. Using agent-based modeling, individuals were simulated as they interacted with others, and influenza was tracked as it spread through each population. Influenza vaccination coverage derived from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data, was increased by 6.5% (range 3.25%-11.25%) to reflect the effects of vaccine choice. Assuming moderate influenza infectivity, the number of averted cases was highest for the Choice for Both Age Groups in all five counties despite differing demographic profiles. In a cost-effectiveness analysis, Choice for Both Age Groups was the dominant strategy. Sensitivity analyses varying influenza infectivity, costs, and degrees of vaccine coverage increase due to choice, supported the base case findings. Offering a choice to receive a needle-sparing influenza vaccine has the potential to significantly reduce influenza disease burden and to be cost saving. Consistent findings across diverse populations confirmed these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ansari, Asim; Iyengar, Raghuram

    2006-01-01

    We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

  8. Consumer Behavior in the Choice of Mode of Transport: A Case Study in the Toledo-Madrid Corridor

    PubMed Central

    Muro-Rodríguez, Ana I.; Perez-Jiménez, Israel R.; Gutiérrez-Broncano, Santiago

    2017-01-01

    Within the context of the consumption of goods or services the decisions made by individuals involve the choice between a set of discrete alternatives, such as the choice of mode of transport. The methodology for analyzing the consumer behavior are the models of discrete choice based on the Theory of Random Utility. These models are based on the definition of preferences through a utility function that is maximized. These models also denominated of disaggregated demand derived from the decision of a set of individuals, who are formalized by the application of probabilistic models. The objective of this study is to determine the behavior of the consumer in the choice of a service, namely of transport services and in a short-distance corridor, such as Toledo-Madrid. The Toledo-Madrid corridor is characterized by being short distance, with high speed train available within the choice options to get the airport, along with the bus and the car. And where offers of HST and aircraft services can be proposed as complementary modes. By applying disaggregated transport models with revealed preference survey data and declared preferences, one can determine the most important variables involved in the choice and determine the arrangements for payment of individuals. These payment provisions may condition the use of certain transport policies to promote the use of efficient transportation. PMID:28676776

  9. Consumer Behavior in the Choice of Mode of Transport: A Case Study in the Toledo-Madrid Corridor.

    PubMed

    Muro-Rodríguez, Ana I; Perez-Jiménez, Israel R; Gutiérrez-Broncano, Santiago

    2017-01-01

    Within the context of the consumption of goods or services the decisions made by individuals involve the choice between a set of discrete alternatives, such as the choice of mode of transport. The methodology for analyzing the consumer behavior are the models of discrete choice based on the Theory of Random Utility. These models are based on the definition of preferences through a utility function that is maximized. These models also denominated of disaggregated demand derived from the decision of a set of individuals, who are formalized by the application of probabilistic models. The objective of this study is to determine the behavior of the consumer in the choice of a service, namely of transport services and in a short-distance corridor, such as Toledo-Madrid. The Toledo-Madrid corridor is characterized by being short distance, with high speed train available within the choice options to get the airport, along with the bus and the car. And where offers of HST and aircraft services can be proposed as complementary modes. By applying disaggregated transport models with revealed preference survey data and declared preferences, one can determine the most important variables involved in the choice and determine the arrangements for payment of individuals. These payment provisions may condition the use of certain transport policies to promote the use of efficient transportation.

  10. Validity and Realibility of Chemistry Systemic Multiple Choices Questions (CSMCQs)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Priyambodo, Erfan; Marfuatun

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, Rasch model analysis is used widely in social research, moreover in educational research. In this research, Rasch model is used to determine the validation and the reliability of systemic multiple choices question in chemistry teaching and learning. There were 30 multiple choices question with systemic approach for high school student…

  11. Modeling the Bullying Prevention Program Preferences of Educators: A Discrete Choice Conjoint Experiment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cunningham, Charles E.; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally…

  12. Metro passengers’ route choice model and its application considering perceived transfer threshold

    PubMed Central

    Jin, Fanglei; Zhang, Yongsheng; Liu, Shasha

    2017-01-01

    With the rapid development of the Metro network in China, the greatly increased route alternatives make passengers’ route choice behavior and passenger flow assignment more complicated, which presents challenges to the operation management. In this paper, a path sized logit model is adopted to analyze passengers’ route choice preferences considering such parameters as in-vehicle time, number of transfers, and transfer time. Moreover, the “perceived transfer threshold” is defined and included in the utility function to reflect the penalty difference caused by transfer time on passengers’ perceived utility under various numbers of transfers. Next, based on the revealed preference data collected in the Guangzhou Metro, the proposed model is calibrated. The appropriate perceived transfer threshold value and the route choice preferences are analyzed. Finally, the model is applied to a personalized route planning case to demonstrate the engineering practicability of route choice behavior analysis. The results show that the introduction of the perceived transfer threshold is helpful to improve the model’s explanatory abilities. In addition, personalized route planning based on route choice preferences can meet passengers’ diversified travel demands. PMID:28957376

  13. Cognitive models of risky choice: parameter stability and predictive accuracy of prospect theory.

    PubMed

    Glöckner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-04-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are individual differences as measured by model parameters stable enough to improve the ability to predict behavior as compared to modeling without adjustable parameters? We examined this issue in cumulative prospect theory (CPT), arguably the most widely used framework to model decisions under risk. Specifically, we examined (a) the temporal stability of CPT's parameters; and (b) how well different implementations of CPT, varying in the number of adjustable parameters, predict individual choice relative to models with no adjustable parameters (such as CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and various heuristics). We presented participants with risky choice problems and fitted CPT to each individual's choices in two separate sessions (which were 1 week apart). All parameters were correlated across time, in particular when using a simple implementation of CPT. CPT allowing for individual variability in parameter values predicted individual choice better than CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and the heuristics. CPT's parameters thus seem to pick up stable individual differences that need to be considered when predicting risky choice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Modeling the dynamics of choice.

    PubMed

    Baum, William M; Davison, Michael

    2009-06-01

    A simple linear-operator model both describes and predicts the dynamics of choice that may underlie the matching relation. We measured inter-food choice within components of a schedule that presented seven different pairs of concurrent variable-interval schedules for 12 food deliveries each with no signals indicating which pair was in force. This measure of local choice was accurately described and predicted as obtained reinforcer sequences shifted it to favor one alternative or the other. The effect of a changeover delay was reflected in one parameter, the asymptote, whereas the effect of a difference in overall rate of food delivery was reflected in the other parameter, rate of approach to the asymptote. The model takes choice as a primary dependent variable, not derived by comparison between alternatives-an approach that agrees with the molar view of behaviour.

  15. Sample Design for Discrete Choice Analysis of Travel Behavior

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1978-07-01

    Discrete choice models represent the choices of individuals among alternatives such as modes of travel, auto types and destinations. This paper presents a review of the state-of-the-art in designing samples for discrete choice analysis of traveller b...

  16. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    PubMed

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  17. A Personal Value-Based Model of College Students' Aptitudes and Expected Choice Behavior Regarding Retailing Careers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shim, Soyeon; Warrington, Patti; Goldsberry, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    A study of 754 retail management students developed a value-based model of career attitude and expected choice behavior. Findings indicate that personal values had an influence on all aspects of retail career attitudes, which then had a direct effect on expected choice behavior. (Contains 55 references.) (Author/JOW)

  18. Linking harvest choices to timber supply

    Treesearch

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David N. Wear

    2000-01-01

    Aggregate timber supply by ownership was investigated for a small region by applying stand-level harvest choice models to a representative sample of stands and then aggregating to regional totals using the area-frame of the forest survey. Timber harvest choices were estimated as probit models for three ownership categories in coastal plain southern pine stands of North...

  19. Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : testing the gravity and intervening opportunity models as models of destination choice in hurricane evacuation.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2008-03-01

    The objectives of this study are to test whether the Gravity and Intervening Opportunity Models (IOM) can successfully reproduce aggregate evacuation destination choice observed in evacuation behavior from Hurricane Floyd, compare the performance of ...

  20. Street choice logit model for visitors in shopping districts.

    PubMed

    Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

    2014-09-01

    In this study, we propose two models for predicting people's activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that "have more shops, and are wider and lower". In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive).

  1. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    PubMed Central

    Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

  2. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach

    PubMed Central

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.; Pitt, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  3. Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models by Maximum Likelihood and the Simulated Method of Moments

    PubMed Central

    Eisenhauer, Philipp; Heckman, James J.; Mosso, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    We compare the performance of maximum likelihood (ML) and simulated method of moments (SMM) estimation for dynamic discrete choice models. We construct and estimate a simplified dynamic structural model of education that captures some basic features of educational choices in the United States in the 1980s and early 1990s. We use estimates from our model to simulate a synthetic dataset and assess the ability of ML and SMM to recover the model parameters on this sample. We investigate the performance of alternative tuning parameters for SMM. PMID:26494926

  4. An attentional drift diffusion model over binary-attribute choice.

    PubMed

    Fisher, Geoffrey

    2017-11-01

    In order to make good decisions, individuals need to identify and properly integrate information about various attributes associated with a choice. Since choices are often complex and made rapidly, they are typically affected by contextual variables that are thought to influence how much attention is paid to different attributes. I propose a modification of the attentional drift-diffusion model, the binary-attribute attentional drift diffusion model (baDDM), which describes the choice process over simple binary-attribute choices and how it is affected by fluctuations in visual attention. Using an eye-tracking experiment, I find the baDDM makes accurate quantitative predictions about several key variables including choices, reaction times, and how these variables are correlated with attention to two attributes in an accept-reject decision. Furthermore, I estimate an attribute-based fixation bias that suggests attention to an attribute increases its subjective weight by 5%, while the unattended attribute's weight is decreased by 10%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. A Probabilistic Strategy for Understanding Action Selection

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Byounghoon; Basso, Michele A.

    2010-01-01

    Brain regions involved in transforming sensory signals into movement commands are the likely sites where decisions are formed. Once formed, a decision must be read-out from the activity of populations of neurons to produce a choice of action. How this occurs remains unresolved. We recorded from four superior colliculus (SC) neurons simultaneously while monkeys performed a target selection task. We implemented three models to gain insight into the computational principles underlying population coding of action selection. We compared the population vector average (PVA), winner-takes-all (WTA) and a Bayesian model, maximum a posteriori estimate (MAP) to determine which predicted choices most often. The probabilistic model predicted more trials correctly than both the WTA and the PVA. The MAP model predicted 81.88% whereas WTA predicted 71.11% and PVA/OLE predicted the least number of trials at 55.71 and 69.47%. Recovering MAP estimates using simulated, non-uniform priors that correlated with monkeys’ choice performance, improved the accuracy of the model by 2.88%. A dynamic analysis revealed that the MAP estimate evolved over time and the posterior probability of the saccade choice reached a maximum at the time of the saccade. MAP estimates also scaled with choice performance accuracy. Although there was overlap in the prediction abilities of all the models, we conclude that movement choice from populations of neurons may be best understood by considering frameworks based on probability. PMID:20147560

  6. Behavioral variability of choices versus structural inconsistency of preferences.

    PubMed

    Regenwetter, Michel; Davis-Stober, Clintin P

    2012-04-01

    Theories of rational choice often make the structural consistency assumption that every decision maker's binary strict preference among choice alternatives forms a strict weak order. Likewise, the very concept of a utility function over lotteries in normative, prescriptive, and descriptive theory is mathematically equivalent to strict weak order preferences over those lotteries, while intransitive heuristic models violate such weak orders. Using new quantitative interdisciplinary methodologies, we dissociate the variability of choices from the structural inconsistency of preferences. We show that laboratory choice behavior among stimuli of a classical "intransitivity" paradigm is, in fact, consistent with variable strict weak order preferences. We find that decision makers act in accordance with a restrictive mathematical model that, for the behavioral sciences, is extraordinarily parsimonious. Our findings suggest that the best place to invest future behavioral decision research is not in the development of new intransitive decision models but rather in the specification of parsimonious models consistent with strict weak order(s), as well as heuristics and other process models that explain why preferences appear to be weakly ordered.

  7. Sexual selection and the opportunity cost of free mate choice.

    PubMed

    Apostolou, Menelaos

    2016-06-01

    The model of sexual selection under parental choice has been proposed to account for the control that parents exercise over their children's mating decisions. The present paper attempts to formalize and advance this model with the purpose of providing a better understanding of how parental choice mandates the course of sexual selection. In particular, in the proposed formulation, free mate choice involves an opportunity cost which motivates parents to place their children's mate choices under their control. When they succeed in doing so, they become a significant sexual selection force, as traits that appeal to parents in an in-law are selected and increase in frequency in the population. The degree of parental control over mating, and thus the strength of sexual selection under parental choice, is positively predicted by the size of the opportunity cost of free mate choice. The primary factors that affect the level of opportunity cost vary between society types, affecting the strength of parental choice as a sexual selection force.

  8. Optimized bioregenerative space diet selection with crew choice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vicens, Carrie; Wang, Carolyn; Olabi, Ammar; Jackson, Peter; Hunter, Jean

    2003-01-01

    Previous studies on optimization of crew diets have not accounted for choice. A diet selection model with crew choice was developed. Scenario analyses were conducted to assess the feasibility and cost of certain crew preferences, such as preferences for numerous-desserts, high-salt, and high-acceptability foods. For comparison purposes, a no-choice and a random-choice scenario were considered. The model was found to be feasible in terms of food variety and overall costs. The numerous-desserts, high-acceptability, and random-choice scenarios all resulted in feasible solutions costing between 13.2 and 17.3 kg ESM/person-day. Only the high-sodium scenario yielded an infeasible solution. This occurred when the foods highest in salt content were selected for the crew-choice portion of the diet. This infeasibility can be avoided by limiting the total sodium content in the crew-choice portion of the diet. Cost savings were found by reducing food variety in scenarios where the preference bias strongly affected nutritional content.

  9. Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : testing the gravity and intervening opportunity models as models of destination choice in hurricane evacuation.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2006-09-01

    The test was conducted by estimating the models on a portion of evacuation data from South Carolina following Hurricane Floyd, and then observing how well the models reproduced destination choice at the county level on the remaining data. The tests s...

  10. Mechanisms of Individual Differences in Impulsive and Risky Choice in Rats

    PubMed Central

    Kirkpatrick, Kimberly; Marshall, Andrew T.; Smith, Aaron P.

    2016-01-01

    Individual differences in impulsive and risky choice are key risk factors for a variety of maladaptive behaviors such as drug abuse, gambling, and obesity. In our rat model, ordered individual differences are stable across choice parameters, months of testing, and span a broad spectrum, suggesting that rats, like humans, exhibit trait-level impulsive and risky choice behaviors. In addition, impulsive and risky choices are highly correlated, suggesting a degree of correlation between these two traits. An examination of the underlying cognitive mechanisms has suggested an important role for timing processes in impulsive choice. In addition, in an examination of genetic factors in impulsive choice, the Lewis rat strain emerged as a possible animal model for studying disordered impulsive choice, with this strain demonstrating deficient delay processing. Early rearing environment also affected impulsive behaviors, with rearing in an enriched environment promoting adaptable and more self-controlled choices. The combined results with impulsive choice suggest an important role for timing and reward sensitivity in moderating impulsive behaviors. Relative reward valuation also affects risky choice, with manipulation of objective reward value (relative to an alternative reference point) resulting in loss chasing behaviors that predicted overall risky choice behaviors. The combined results are discussed in relation to domain-specific versus domain-general subjective reward valuation processes and the potential neural substrates of impulsive and risky choice. PMID:27695580

  11. Free choice and career choice: Clerkship electives in medical education.

    PubMed

    Mihalynuk, Tanis; Leung, Gentson; Fraser, Joan; Bates, Joanna; Snadden, David

    2006-11-01

    Medical education experiences, particularly in clinical years, are reported determinants of career choice. Less is known about features of clinical education experiences including length, discipline, setting and choice, which may serve as landmarks in career choice decisions. This study's purpose was to explore the benefits of a free choice clerkship elective, and more specifically, its role in clarifying career choice. Using framework and content analysis methodology, we analysed University of British Columbia, third-year medical student anonymised assignments regarding free choice and 2-week clerkship elective experiences. This clerkship was designed to provide students with clerkship experiences outside the conventional curricular model, while encouraging student choice of ambulatory and community settings. Assignment questions included: reasons for choosing elective; whether learning objectives were met; influence of elective on career choice; and unique elective experiences. Iterative review, coding, analysis and indexing of assignments were carried out to identify themes and corroborate findings. Emergent themes included: positive views of experience; transferable knowledge and skills; and influencer of future education and career choices. Although students were encouraged to choose clerkship experiences outside the conventional curricular model, most students chose the elective to clarify future career decisions. This qualitative descriptive study highlights the influence of highly regarded, free choice clerkship elective experiences in the career decision making process in medical education. Further examination of the details of clerkship elective experiences which influence career choice is recommended.

  12. Occupational Choice: A Conditional Logit Model with Special Reference to Wage Subsidies and Occupational Choice. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boskin, Michael J.

    A model of occupational choice based on the theory of human capital is developed and estimated by conditional logit analysis. The empirical results estimated the probability of individuals with certain characteristics (such as race, sex, age, and education) entering each of 11 occupational groups. The results indicate that individuals tend to…

  13. A Note on the Heterogeneous Choice Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rohwer, Goetz

    2015-01-01

    The heterogeneous choice model (HCM) has been proposed as an extension of the standard logit and probit models, which allows taking into account different error variances of explanatory variables. In this note, I show that in an important special case, this model is just another way to specify an interaction effect.

  14. A Cognitive Diagnosis Model for Cognitively Based Multiple-Choice Options

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de la Torre, Jimmy

    2009-01-01

    Cognitive or skills diagnosis models are discrete latent variable models developed specifically for the purpose of identifying the presence or absence of multiple fine-grained skills. However, applications of these models typically involve dichotomous or dichotomized data, including data from multiple-choice (MC) assessments that are scored as…

  15. The Multi-Agent Model of Language Choice: National Planning and Individual Volition in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lam, Agnes S. L.

    2007-01-01

    Language choice is often studied as choices made by the state at the level of national language planning or as individual choice of language or variety in language use. There has been little research to directly connect these two aspects of language choice. This paper attempts to incorporate the two aspects and other related phenomena in a…

  16. The Attentional Drift Diffusion Model of Simple Perceptual Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Tavares, Gabriela; Perona, Pietro; Rangel, Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Perceptual decisions requiring the comparison of spatially distributed stimuli that are fixated sequentially might be influenced by fluctuations in visual attention. We used two psychophysical tasks with human subjects to investigate the extent to which visual attention influences simple perceptual choices, and to test the extent to which the attentional Drift Diffusion Model (aDDM) provides a good computational description of how attention affects the underlying decision processes. We find evidence for sizable attentional choice biases and that the aDDM provides a reasonable quantitative description of the relationship between fluctuations in visual attention, choices and reaction times. We also find that exogenous manipulations of attention induce choice biases consistent with the predictions of the model.

  17. College-"Conocimiento": Toward an Interdisciplinary College Choice Framework for Latinx Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Acevedo-Gil, Nancy

    2017-01-01

    This paper builds upon Perna's college choice model by integrating Anzaldúa's theory of "conocimiento" to propose an interdisciplinary college choice framework for Latinx students. Using previous literature, this paper proposes college-"conocimiento" as a framework that contextualizes Latinx student college choices within the…

  18. Existential autonomy: why patients should make their own choices.

    PubMed

    Madder, H

    1997-08-01

    Savulescu has recently introduced the "rational non-interventional paternalist" model of the patient-doctor relationship. This paper addresses objections to such a model from the perspective of an anaesthetist. Patients need to make their own decisions if they are to be fully autonomous. Rational non-interventional paternalism undermines the importance of patient choice and so threatens autonomy. Doctors should provide an evaluative judgment of the best medical course of action, but ought to restrict themselves to helping patients to make their own choices rather than making such choices for them.

  19. Existential autonomy: why patients should make their own choices.

    PubMed Central

    Madder, H

    1997-01-01

    Savulescu has recently introduced the "rational non-interventional paternalist" model of the patient-doctor relationship. This paper addresses objections to such a model from the perspective of an anaesthetist. Patients need to make their own decisions if they are to be fully autonomous. Rational non-interventional paternalism undermines the importance of patient choice and so threatens autonomy. Doctors should provide an evaluative judgment of the best medical course of action, but ought to restrict themselves to helping patients to make their own choices rather than making such choices for them. PMID:9279743

  20. Valuing improved wetland quality using choice modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morrison, Mark; Bennett, Jeff; Blamey, Russell

    1999-09-01

    The main stated preference technique used for estimating environmental values is the contingent valuation method. In this paper the results of an application of an alternative technique, choice modeling, are reported. Choice modeling has been developed in the marketing and transport applications but has only been used in a handful of environmental applications, most of which have focused on use values. The case study presented here involves the estimation of the nonuse environmental values provided by the Macquarie Marshes, a major wetland in New South Wales, Australia. Estimates of the nonuse value the community places on preventing job losses are also presented. The reported models are robust, having high explanatory power and variables that are statistically significant and consistent with expectations. These results provide support for the hypothesis that choice modeling can be used to estimate nonuse values for both environmental and social consequences of resource use changes.

  1. [Significance of motivation balance for a choice of dog's behavior under conditions of environmental uncertainty].

    PubMed

    Chilingarian, L I; Grigor'ian, G A

    2007-01-01

    Two experimental models with a choice between two reinforcements were used for assessment of individual typological features of dogs. In the first model dogs were given the choice of homogeneous food reinforcements: between less valuable constantly delivered reinforcement and more valuable reinforcement but delivered with low probabilities. In the second model the dogs had the choice of heterogeneous reinforcements: between performing alimentary and defensive reactions. Under conditions of rise of uncertainty owing to a decrease in probability of getting the valuable food, two dogs continued to prefer the valuable reinforcement, while the third animal gradually shifted its behavior from the choice of a highly valuable but infrequent reward to a less valuable but easily achieved reinforcement. Under condition of choice between the valuable food reinforcement and avoidance of electrocutaneous stimulation, the first two dogs preferred food, whereas the third animal which had been previously oriented to the choice of the low-valuable constant reinforcement, steadily preferred the avoidance behavior. The data obtained are consistent with the hypothesis according to which the individual typological characteristics of animals's (human's) behavior substantially depend on two parameters: extent of environmental uncertainty and subjective features of reinforcement assessment.

  2. The dynamics of decision making in risky choice: an eye-tracking analysis.

    PubMed

    Fiedler, Susann; Glöckner, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    In the last years, research on risky choice has moved beyond analyzing choices only. Models have been suggested that aim to describe the underlying cognitive processes and some studies have tested process predictions of these models. Prominent approaches are evidence accumulation models such as decision field theory (DFT), simple serial heuristic models such as the adaptive toolbox, and connectionist approaches such as the parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) model. In two studies involving measures of attention and pupil dilation, we investigate hypotheses derived from these models in choices between two gambles with two outcomes each. We show that attention to an outcome of a gamble increases with its probability and its value and that attention shifts toward the subsequently favored gamble after about two thirds of the decision process, indicating a gaze-cascade effect. Information search occurs mostly within-gambles, and the direction of search does not change over the course of decision making. Pupil dilation, which reflects both cognitive effort and arousal, increases during the decision process and increases with mean expected value. Overall, the results support aspects of automatic integration models for risky choice such as DFT and PCS, but in their current specification none of them can account for the full pattern of results.

  3. Does Choice of Influenza Vaccine Type Change Disease Burden and Cost-Effectiveness in the United States? An Agent-Based Modeling Study.

    PubMed

    DePasse, Jay V; Smith, Kenneth J; Raviotta, Jonathan M; Shim, Eunha; Nowalk, Mary Patricia; Zimmerman, Richard K; Brown, Shawn T

    2017-05-01

    Offering a choice of influenza vaccine type may increase vaccine coverage and reduce disease burden, but it is more costly. This study calculated the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of 4 strategies: no choice, pediatric choice, adult choice, or choice for both age groups. Using agent-based modeling, individuals were simulated as they interacted with others, and influenza was tracked as it spread through a population in Washington, DC. Influenza vaccination coverage derived from data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was increased by 6.5% (range, 3.25%-11.25%), reflecting changes due to vaccine choice. With moderate influenza infectivity, the number of cases averaged 1,117,285 for no choice, 1,083,126 for pediatric choice, 1,009,026 for adult choice, and 975,818 for choice for both age groups. Averted cases increased with increased coverage and were highest for the choice-for-both-age-groups strategy; adult choice also reduced cases in children. In cost-effectiveness analysis, choice for both age groups was dominant when choice increased vaccine coverage by ≥3.25%. Offering a choice of influenza vaccines, with reasonable resultant increases in coverage, decreased influenza cases by >100,000 with a favorable cost-effectiveness profile. Clinical trials testing the predictions made based on these simulation results and deliberation of policies and procedures to facilitate choice should be considered. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. The Role of Intent in Ethical Decision Making: The Ethical Choice Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Christine; Powell, Toni

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews the major theories, studies and models concerning ethical decision making in organizations. The authors drew upon Jones' Model (1991) as the foundation for their Ethical Choice Model, which is designed to further clarify the ethical decision making process as it relates to the construct of intentionality. The model, illustrated…

  5. Impulsive choice behavior in four strains of rats: Evaluation of possible models of Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Garcia, Ana; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2012-01-01

    Several studies have examined impulsive choice behavior in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs) as a possible pre-clinical model for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). However, this strain was not specifically selected for the traits of ADHD and as a result their appropriateness as a model has been questioned. The present study investigated whether SHRs would exhibit impulsive behavior in comparison to their control strain, Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats. In addition, we evaluated a strain that has previously shown high levels of impulsive choice, the Lewis (LEW) rats and compared them with their source strain, Wistar (WIS) rats. In the first phase, rats could choose between a Smaller-sooner (SS) reward of 1 pellet after 10 s and a Larger-later (LL) reward of 2 pellets after 30 s. Subsequently, the rats were exposed to increases in LL reward magnitude and SS delay. These manipulations were designed to assess sensitivity to magnitude and delay within the choice task to parse out possible differences in using the strains as models of specific deficits associated with ADHD. The SHR and WKY strains did not differ in their choice behavior under either delay or magnitude manipulations. In comparison to WIS, LEW showed deficits in choice behavior in the delay manipulation, and to a lesser extent in the magnitude manipulation. An examination of individual differences indicated that the SHR strain may not be sufficiently homogeneous in their impulsive choice behavior to be considered as a viable model for impulse control disorders such as ADHD. The LEW strain may be worthy of further consideration for their suitability as an animal model. PMID:23085479

  6. The Effects of Georgia's Choice Curricular Reform Model on Third Grade Science Scores on the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phemister, Art W.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice reading curriculum on third grade science scores on the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test from 2002 to 2008. In assessing the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice curriculum model this causal comparative study examined the 105 elementary schools that…

  7. SEXUAL SELECTION. Irrationality in mate choice revealed by túngara frogs.

    PubMed

    Lea, Amanda M; Ryan, Michael J

    2015-08-28

    Mate choice models derive from traditional microeconomic decision theory and assume that individuals maximize their Darwinian fitness by making economically rational decisions. Rational choices exhibit regularity, whereby the relative strength of preferences between options remains stable when additional options are presented. We tested female frogs with three simulated males who differed in relative call attractiveness and call rate. In binary choice tests, females' preferences favored stimulus caller B over caller A; however, with the addition of an inferior "decoy" C, females reversed their preferences and chose A over B. These results show that the relative valuation of mates is not independent of inferior alternatives in the choice set and therefore cannot be explained with the rational choice models currently used in sexual selection theory. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  8. A novel concurrent pictorial choice model of mood-induced relapse in hazardous drinkers.

    PubMed

    Hardy, Lorna; Hogarth, Lee

    2017-12-01

    This study tested whether a novel concurrent pictorial choice procedure, inspired by animal self-administration models, is sensitive to the motivational effect of negative mood induction on alcohol-seeking in hazardous drinkers. Forty-eight hazardous drinkers (scoring ≥7 on the Alcohol Use Disorders Inventory) recruited from the community completed measures of alcohol dependence, depression, and drinking coping motives. Baseline alcohol-seeking was measured by percent choice to enlarge alcohol- versus food-related thumbnail images in two alternative forced-choice trials. Negative and positive mood was then induced in succession by means of self-referential affective statements and music, and percent alcohol choice was measured after each induction in the same way as baseline. Baseline alcohol choice correlated with alcohol dependence severity, r = .42, p = .003, drinking coping motives (in two questionnaires, r = .33, p = .02 and r = .46, p = .001), and depression symptoms, r = .31, p = .03. Alcohol choice was increased by negative mood over baseline (p < .001, ηp2 = .280), and matched baseline following positive mood (p = .54, ηp2 = .008). The negative mood-induced increase in alcohol choice was not related to gender, alcohol dependence, drinking to cope, or depression symptoms (ps ≥ .37). The concurrent pictorial choice measure is a sensitive index of the relative value of alcohol, and provides an accessible experimental model to study negative mood-induced relapse mechanisms in hazardous drinkers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. A generalized matching law analysis of cocaine vs. food choice in rhesus monkeys: effects of candidate 'agonist-based' medications on sensitivity to reinforcement.

    PubMed

    Hutsell, Blake A; Negus, S Stevens; Banks, Matthew L

    2015-01-01

    We have previously demonstrated reductions in cocaine choice produced by either continuous 14-day phendimetrazine and d-amphetamine treatment or removing cocaine availability under a cocaine vs. food choice procedure in rhesus monkeys. The aim of the present investigation was to apply the concatenated generalized matching law (GML) to cocaine vs. food choice dose-effect functions incorporating sensitivity to both the relative magnitude and price of each reinforcer. Our goal was to determine potential behavioral mechanisms underlying pharmacological treatment efficacy to decrease cocaine choice. A multi-model comparison approach was used to characterize dose- and time-course effects of both pharmacological and environmental manipulations on sensitivity to reinforcement. GML models provided an excellent fit of the cocaine choice dose-effect functions in individual monkeys. Reductions in cocaine choice by both pharmacological and environmental manipulations were principally produced by systematic decreases in sensitivity to reinforcer price and non-systematic changes in sensitivity to reinforcer magnitude. The modeling approach used provides a theoretical link between the experimental analysis of choice and pharmacological treatments being evaluated as candidate 'agonist-based' medications for cocaine addiction. The analysis suggests that monoamine releaser treatment efficacy to decrease cocaine choice was mediated by selectively increasing the relative price of cocaine. Overall, the net behavioral effect of these pharmacological treatments was to increase substitutability of food pellets, a nondrug reinforcer, for cocaine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models.

    PubMed

    Honda, Hidehito; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Ueda, Kazuhiro

    2017-05-01

    Some researchers on binary choice inference have argued that people make inferences based on simple heuristics, such as recognition, fluency, or familiarity. Others have argued that people make inferences based on available knowledge. To examine the boundary between heuristic and knowledge usage, we examine binary choice inference processes in terms of attribute substitution in heuristic use (Kahneman & Frederick, 2005). In this framework, it is predicted that people will rely on heuristic or knowledge-based inference depending on the subjective difficulty of the inference task. We conducted competitive tests of binary choice inference models representing simple heuristics (fluency and familiarity heuristics) and knowledge-based inference models. We found that a simple heuristic model (especially a familiarity heuristic model) explained inference patterns for subjectively difficult inference tasks, and that a knowledge-based inference model explained subjectively easy inference tasks. These results were consistent with the predictions of the attribute substitution framework. Issues on usage of simple heuristics and psychological processes are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  11. The Potential of Growth Mixture Modelling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muthen, Bengt

    2006-01-01

    The authors of the paper on growth mixture modelling (GMM) give a description of GMM and related techniques as applied to antisocial behaviour. They bring up the important issue of choice of model within the general framework of mixture modelling, especially the choice between latent class growth analysis (LCGA) techniques developed by Nagin and…

  12. The Simplest Complete Model of Choice Response Time: Linear Ballistic Accumulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Scott D.; Heathcote, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    We propose a linear ballistic accumulator (LBA) model of decision making and reaction time. The LBA is simpler than other models of choice response time, with independent accumulators that race towards a common response threshold. Activity in the accumulators increases in a linear and deterministic manner. The simplicity of the model allows…

  13. Risk-sensitive choice in humans as a function of an earnings budget.

    PubMed Central

    Pietras, C J; Hackenberc, T D

    2001-01-01

    Risky choice in 3 adult humans was investigated across procedural manipulations designed to model energy-budget manipulations conducted with nonhumans. Subjects were presented with repeated choices between a fixed and a variable number of points. An energy budget was simulated by use of an earnings budget, defined as the number of points needed within a block of trials for points to be exchanged for money. During positive earnings-budget conditions, exclusive preference for the fixed option met the earnings requirement. During negative earnings-budget conditions, exclusive preference for the certain option did not meet the earnings requirement, but choice for the variable option met the requirement probabilistically. Choice was generally risk averse (the fixed option was preferred) when the earnings budget was positive and risk prone (the variable option was preferred) when the earnings budget was negative. Furthermore, choice was most risk prone during negative earnings-budget conditions in which the earnings requirement was most stringent. Local choice patterns were also frequently consistent with the predictions of a dynamic optimization model, indicating that choice was simultaneously sensitive to short-term choice contingencies, current point earnings, and the earnings requirement. Overall, these results show that the patterns of risky choice generated by energy-budget variables can also be produced by choice contingencies that do not involve immediate survival, and that risky choice in humans may be similar to that shown in nonhumans when choice is studied under analogous experimental conditions. PMID:11516113

  14. Issues or Identity? Cognitive Foundations of Voter Choice

    PubMed Central

    Jenke, Libby; Huettel, Scott A.

    2016-01-01

    Voter choice is one of the most important problems in political science. The most common models assume that voting is a rational choice based on policy positions (e.g., key issues) and non-policy information (e.g., social identity, personality). Though such models explain macroscopic features of elections, they also reveal important anomalies that have been resistant to explanation. We argue for a new approach that builds upon recent research in cognitive science and neuroscience; specifically, we contend that policy positions and social identities do not combine in merely an additive manner, but compete to determine voter preferences. This model not only explains several key anomalies in voter choice, but also suggests new directions for research in both political science and cognitive science. PMID:27769726

  15. Determinants of Awareness, Consideration, and Choice Set Size in University Choice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dawes, Philip L.; Brown, Jennifer

    2002-01-01

    Developed and tested a model of students' university "brand" choice using five individual-level variables (ethnic group, age, gender, number of parents going to university, and academic ability) and one situational variable (duration of search) to explain variation in the sizes of awareness, consideration, and choice decision sets. (EV)

  16. College Students' Choice Modeling of Taking On-Line International Business Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeh, Robert S.

    2006-01-01

    To understand students' choice behavior of taking on-line international business courses, a survey study is conducted to collect information regarding students' actual choices of taking on-line courses and potential factors that may have impacts on students' choices of online learning. Potential factors such as enrollment status, demographic…

  17. A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

    2017-01-01

    Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

  18. Eye Movements in Risky Choice

    PubMed Central

    Hermens, Frouke; Matthews, William J.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract We asked participants to make simple risky choices while we recorded their eye movements. We built a complete statistical model of the eye movements and found very little systematic variation in eye movements over the time course of a choice or across the different choices. The only exceptions were finding more (of the same) eye movements when choice options were similar, and an emerging gaze bias in which people looked more at the gamble they ultimately chose. These findings are inconsistent with prospect theory, the priority heuristic, or decision field theory. However, the eye movements made during a choice have a large relationship with the final choice, and this is mostly independent from the contribution of the actual attribute values in the choice options. That is, eye movements tell us not just about the processing of attribute values but also are independently associated with choice. The pattern is simple—people choose the gamble they look at more often, independently of the actual numbers they see—and this pattern is simpler than predicted by decision field theory, decision by sampling, and the parallel constraint satisfaction model. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:27522985

  19. The Effects of the Previous Outcome on Probabilistic Choice in Rats

    PubMed Central

    Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the effects of previous outcomes on subsequent choices in a probabilistic-choice task. Twenty-four rats were trained to choose between a certain outcome (1 or 3 pellets) versus an uncertain outcome (3 or 9 pellets), delivered with a probability of .1, .33, .67, and .9 in different phases. Uncertain outcome choices increased with the probability of uncertain food. Additionally, uncertain choices increased with the probability of uncertain food following both certain-choice outcomes and unrewarded uncertain choices. However, following uncertain-choice food outcomes, there was a tendency to choose the uncertain outcome in all cases, indicating that the rats continued to “gamble” after successful uncertain choices, regardless of the overall probability or magnitude of food. A subsequent manipulation, in which the probability of uncertain food varied within each session as a function of the previous uncertain outcome, examined how the previous outcome and probability of uncertain food affected choice in a dynamic environment. Uncertain-choice behavior increased with the probability of uncertain food. The rats exhibited increased sensitivity to probability changes and a greater degree of win–stay/lose–shift behavior than in the static phase. Simulations of two sequential choice models were performed to explore the possible mechanisms of reward value computations. The simulation results supported an exponentially decaying value function that updated as a function of trial (rather than time). These results emphasize the importance of analyzing global and local factors in choice behavior and suggest avenues for the future development of sequential-choice models. PMID:23205915

  20. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Cohen, Erika; Ancona, Zachary H.; McNulty, Steven; Sun, Ge

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address these questions at national, provincial, and subwatershed scales in Rwanda. We compared results for carbon, water, and sediment as modeled using InVEST and WaSSI using (1) land cover data at 30 and 300 m resolution and (2) three different input land cover datasets. WaSSI and simpler InVEST models (carbon storage and annual water yield) were relatively insensitive to the choice of spatial resolution, but more complex InVEST models (seasonal water yield and sediment regulation) produced large differences when applied at differing resolution. Six out of nine ES metrics (InVEST annual and seasonal water yield and WaSSI) gave similar predictions for at least two different input land cover datasets. Despite differences in mean values when using different data sources and resolution, we found significant and highly correlated results when using Spearman's rank correlation, indicating consistent spatial patterns of high and low values. Our results confirm and extend conclusions of past studies, showing that in certain cases (e.g., simpler models and national-scale analyses), results can be robust to data and modeling choices. For more complex models, those with different output metrics, and subnational to site-based analyses in heterogeneous environments, data and model choices may strongly influence study findings.

  1. Building a Bridge into the Future: Dynamic Connectionist Modeling as an Integrative Tool for Research on Intertemporal Choice

    PubMed Central

    Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice. PMID:23181048

  2. Building a bridge into the future: dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice.

    PubMed

    Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

  3. Belief in the "free choice" model of homosexuality: a correlate of homophobia in registered nurses.

    PubMed

    Blackwell, Christopher W

    2007-01-01

    A great amount of social science research has supported the positive correlation between heterosexuals' belief in the free choice model of homosexuality and homophobia. Heterosexuals who believe gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (GLBT) persons consciously choose their sexual orientation and practice a lifestyle conducive to that choice are much more likely to possess discriminatory, homophobic, homonegative, and heterosexist beliefs. In addition, these individuals are less likely to support gay rights initiatives such as nondiscrimination policies or same-sex partner benefits in the workplace or hate crime enhancement legislation inclusive of GLBT persons. Although researchers have demonstrated this phenomenon in the general population, none have specifically assessed it in the nursing workforce. The purpose of this study was to examine registered nurses' overall levels of homophobia and attitudes toward a workplace policy protective of gays and lesbians. These variables were then correlated with belief in the free choice model of homosexuality. Results indicated that belief in the free choice model of homosexuality was the strongest predictor of homophobia in nurses. Implications for nursing leadership and management, nursing education, and future research are discussed.

  4. Choice Shift in Opinion Network Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gabbay, Michael

    Choice shift is a phenomenon associated with small group dynamics whereby group discussion causes group members to shift their opinions in a more extreme direction so that the mean post-discussion opinion exceeds the mean pre-discussion opinion. Also known as group polarization, choice shift is a robust experimental phenomenon and has been well-studied within social psychology. In opinion network models, shifts toward extremism are typically produced by the presence of stubborn agents at the extremes of the opinion axis, whose opinions are much more resistant to change than moderate agents. However, we present a model in which choice shift can arise without the assumption of stubborn agents; the model evolves member opinions and uncertainties using coupled nonlinear differential equations. In addition, we briefly describe the results of a recent experiment conducted involving online group discussion concerning the outcome of National Football League games are described. The model predictions concerning the effects of network structure, disagreement level, and team choice (favorite or underdog) are in accord with the experimental results. This research was funded by the Office of Naval Research and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

  5. Cognitive control predicts use of model-based reinforcement learning.

    PubMed

    Otto, A Ross; Skatova, Anya; Madlon-Kay, Seth; Daw, Nathaniel D

    2015-02-01

    Accounts of decision-making and its neural substrates have long posited the operation of separate, competing valuation systems in the control of choice behavior. Recent theoretical and experimental work suggest that this classic distinction between behaviorally and neurally dissociable systems for habitual and goal-directed (or more generally, automatic and controlled) choice may arise from two computational strategies for reinforcement learning (RL), called model-free and model-based RL, but the cognitive or computational processes by which one system may dominate over the other in the control of behavior is a matter of ongoing investigation. To elucidate this question, we leverage the theoretical framework of cognitive control, demonstrating that individual differences in utilization of goal-related contextual information--in the service of overcoming habitual, stimulus-driven responses--in established cognitive control paradigms predict model-based behavior in a separate, sequential choice task. The behavioral correspondence between cognitive control and model-based RL compellingly suggests that a common set of processes may underpin the two behaviors. In particular, computational mechanisms originally proposed to underlie controlled behavior may be applicable to understanding the interactions between model-based and model-free choice behavior.

  6. Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice

    Treesearch

    Maksym Polyakov; David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

    2009-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price...

  7. Testing Signal-Detection Models of Yes/No and Two-Alternative Forced-Choice Recognition Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jang, Yoonhee; Wixted, John T.; Huber, David E.

    2009-01-01

    The current study compared 3 models of recognition memory in their ability to generalize across yes/no and 2-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) testing. The unequal-variance signal-detection model assumes a continuous memory strength process. The dual-process signal-detection model adds a thresholdlike recollection process to a continuous…

  8. "Role Models" among Elite Young Male Rugby League Players in Britain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fleming, Scott; Hardman, Alun; Jones, Carwyn; Sheridan, Heather

    2005-01-01

    There is a taken-for-granted acceptance that sports stars have responsibilities as "role models", yet the concept of a "role model" is unclear. The present study addressed the choice of "role models" amongst elite young British rugby league players, and the reasons for their choices. During the summer of 2002 under-13…

  9. The Carrot or the Stick for School Desegregation Policy?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rossell, Christine H.

    1990-01-01

    Compares the public-choice model for school desegregation, which involves parents choosing magnet schools, to the command-and-control model, which involves mandatory reassignment plans, in order to evaluate the desegregation effectiveness of each plan. The public-choice model works for school desegregation. Mandatory reassignment produces more…

  10. Airline Choice for Domestic Flights in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena

    2006-01-01

    Using the conditional (multinomial) LOGIT model, this paper addresses airline choice in the S o Paulo Metropolitan Area. There are two airports in this region, where two, three or even four airlines compete for passengers flying to an array of domestic destinations. The airline choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers face among flight cost, flight frequency and airline performance. It was found that the lowest fare better explains airline choice than the highest fare, whereas direct flight frequencies give better explanation to airline choice than indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) ones. Out of 15 variables tested, the lowest fare was the variable that best explained airline choice. However, its signal was counterintuitive (positive) possibly because the cheapest airline was offering few flights, so passengers overwhelmingly failed to choose the cheapest airline. The model specification most adjusted to the data considered the lowest fare, direct flight frequency in the travel day and period (morning or afternoon peak) and airline age. Passengers departing from S o Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) airport make their airline choice in terms of cost whereas those from Sao Paulo-Congonhas Airport (CGH) airport do not. Finally, senior passengers place more importance on airline age than junior passengers.

  11. Influence of choice on vegetable intake in children: an in-home study.

    PubMed

    de Wild, Victoire W T; de Graaf, Cees; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Jager, Gerry

    2015-08-01

    Children's vegetable consumption is still far below that recommended, and stimulating their intake is a challenge for caregivers. The objective of this study was to investigate whether choice-offering is an effective strategy to increase children's vegetable intake in an in-home situation. Seventy children (mean age 3.7; SD 1) randomly assigned to a choice or a no-choice condition, were exposed 12 times to six familiar target vegetables at home during dinner. In the choice group, two selected vegetables were offered each time, whereas the no-choice group only received one vegetable. Vegetable intake was measured by weighing children's plates before and after dinner. A mixed linear model with age, gender, and baseline vegetable liking as covariates was used to compare intake between the choice and the no-choice group. Mixed linear model analysis yielded estimated means for vegetable intake of 48.5 g +/- 30 in the no-choice group and 57.7 g +/- 31 for the choice group (P = 0.09). In addition, baseline vegetable liking (P <0.001) and age (P = 0.06) predicted vegetable intake to be higher when the child liked vegetables better and with older age. These findings suggest that choice-offering has some, but hardly robust, effect on increasing vegetable intake in children. Other factors such as age and liking of vegetables also mediate the effect of offering a choice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Models of Affective Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Charpentier, Caroline J.; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P.; Sharot, Tali

    2016-01-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. PMID:27071751

  13. Modeling the Effect of Enlarging Seating Room on Passengers' Preference of Taiwan's Domestic Airlines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lu, Jin-Long; Tsai, Li-Non

    2003-01-01

    This study addresses the need for measuring the effect of enlarging seating room in airplane on passengers' preferences of airline in Taiwan. The results can assist Taiwan's domestic air carriers in better understanding their customers' expectations. Stated choice experiment is used to incorporate passengers' trade-offs in the preferred measurement, and three major attributes are taken into account in the stated choice experiment: (1) type of seat (enlarged or not), (2) price, and (3) brand names of airlines. Furthermore, a binary logit model is used to model the choice behavior of air passengers. The findings show that the type of seat is a major significant variable; price and airline's brand are also significant as well. It concludes that air carriers should put more emphasis on the issue of improving the quality of seat comfort. Keywords: Passengers' preference, Enlarged seating room, Stated choice experiment, Binary logit model.

  14. Choice Inconsistencies among the Elderly: Evidence from Plan Choice in the Medicare Part D Program: Reply

    PubMed Central

    ABALUCK, JASON

    2017-01-01

    We explore the in- and out- of sample robustness of tests for choice inconsistencies based on parameter restrictions in parametric models, focusing on tests proposed by Ketcham, Kuminoff and Powers (KKP). We argue that their non-parametric alternatives are inherently conservative with respect to detecting mistakes. We then show that our parametric model is robust to KKP’s suggested specification checks, and that comprehensive goodness of fit measures perform better with our model than the expected utility model. Finally, we explore the robustness of our 2011 results to alternative normative assumptions highlighting the role of brand fixed effects and unobservable characteristics. PMID:29170561

  15. Using partial site aggregation to reduce bias in random utility travel cost models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lupi, Frank; Feather, Peter M.

    1998-12-01

    We propose a "partial aggregation" strategy for defining the recreation sites that enter choice sets in random utility models. Under the proposal, the most popular sites and sites that will be the subject of policy analysis enter choice sets as individual sites while remaining sites are aggregated into groups of similar sites. The scheme balances the desire to include all potential substitute sites in the choice sets with practical data and modeling constraints. Unlike fully aggregate models, our analysis and empirical applications suggest that the partial aggregation approach reasonably approximates the results of a disaggregate model. The partial aggregation approach offers all of the data and computational advantages of models with aggregate sites but does not suffer from the same degree of bias as fully aggregate models.

  16. Predicting Career Choice in College Women: Empirical Test of a Theory-Based Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eisler, Terri A.; Iverson, Barbara

    While investigations of the impact of parental factors on children's career choices have identified variables that appear predictive of career choice in males, variables which influence career choice in females are less well documented. This study used social learning theory as a framework for examining the impact of parental reinforcement,…

  17. Comparing the Nutritional Impact of Dietary Strategies to Reduce Discretionary Choice Intake in the Australian Adult Population: A Simulation Modelling Study.

    PubMed

    Grieger, Jessica A; Johnson, Brittany J; Wycherley, Thomas P; Golley, Rebecca K

    2017-05-03

    Dietary strategies to reduce discretionary choice intake are commonly utilized in practice, but evidence on their relative efficacy is lacking. The aim was to compare the potential impact on nutritional intake of three strategies to reducing discretionary choices intake in the Australian adult (19-90 years) population. Dietary simulation modelling using data from the National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey 2011-2012 was conducted ( n = 9341; one 24 h dietary recall). Strategies modelled were: moderation (reduce discretionary choices by 50%, with 0%, 25% or 75% energy compensation); substitution (replace 50% of discretionary choices with core choices); reformulation (replace 50% SFA with unsaturated fats, reduce added sugars by 25%, and reduce sodium by 20%). Compared to the base case (observed) intake, modelled intakes in the moderation scenario showed: -17.3% lower energy (sensitivity analyses, 25% energy compensation -14.2%; 75% energy compensation -8.0%), -20.9% lower SFA (-17.4%; -10.5%), -43.3% lower added sugars (-41.1%; -36.7%) and 17.7% lower sodium (-14.3%; -7.5%). Substitution with a range of core items, or with fruits, vegetables and core beverages only, resulted in similar changes in energy intake (-13.5% and -15.4%), SFA (-17.7% and -20.1%), added sugars (-42.6% and -43%) and sodium (-13.7% and -16.5%), respectively. Reformulating discretionary choices had minimal impact on reducing energy intake but reduced SFA (-10.3% to -30.9%), added sugars (-9.3% to -52.9%), and alcohol (-25.0% to -49.9%) and sodium (-3.3% to -13.2%). The substitution and reformulation scenarios minimized negative changes in fiber, protein and micronutrient intakes. While each strategy has strengths and limitations, substitution of discretionary choices with core foods and beverages may optimize the nutritional impact.

  18. A multiple indicator solution approach to endogeneity in discrete-choice models for environmental valuation.

    PubMed

    Mariel, Petr; Hoyos, David; Artabe, Alaitz; Guevara, C Angelo

    2018-08-15

    Endogeneity is an often neglected issue in empirical applications of discrete choice modelling despite its severe consequences in terms of inconsistent parameter estimation and biased welfare measures. This article analyses the performance of the multiple indicator solution method to deal with endogeneity arising from omitted explanatory variables in discrete choice models for environmental valuation. We also propose and illustrate a factor analysis procedure for the selection of the indicators in practice. Additionally, the performance of this method is compared with the recently proposed hybrid choice modelling framework. In an empirical application we find that the multiple indicator solution method and the hybrid model approach provide similar results in terms of welfare estimates, although the multiple indicator solution method is more parsimonious and notably easier to implement. The empirical results open a path to explore the performance of this method when endogeneity is thought to have a different cause or under a different set of indicators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Celia, Michael A.

    This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO 2 injection,migration, leakage and long-term fate” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objective of the project was to investigate modeling approaches of various levels of complexity relevant to geologic carbon storage (GCS) modeling with the goal to establish guidelines on choice of modeling approach.

  20. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    Treesearch

    Kenneth J. Bagstad; Erika Cohen; Zachary H. Ancona; Steven. G. McNulty; Ge   Sun

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address...

  1. Uncertainty in action-value estimation affects both action choice and learning rate of the choice behaviors of rats

    PubMed Central

    Funamizu, Akihiro; Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji; Kanzaki, Ryohei; Takahashi, Hirokazu

    2012-01-01

    The estimation of reward outcomes for action candidates is essential for decision making. In this study, we examined whether and how the uncertainty in reward outcome estimation affects the action choice and learning rate. We designed a choice task in which rats selected either the left-poking or right-poking hole and received a reward of a food pellet stochastically. The reward probabilities of the left and right holes were chosen from six settings (high, 100% vs. 66%; mid, 66% vs. 33%; low, 33% vs. 0% for the left vs. right holes, and the opposites) in every 20–549 trials. We used Bayesian Q-learning models to estimate the time course of the probability distribution of action values and tested if they better explain the behaviors of rats than standard Q-learning models that estimate only the mean of action values. Model comparison by cross-validation revealed that a Bayesian Q-learning model with an asymmetric update for reward and non-reward outcomes fit the choice time course of the rats best. In the action-choice equation of the Bayesian Q-learning model, the estimated coefficient for the variance of action value was positive, meaning that rats were uncertainty seeking. Further analysis of the Bayesian Q-learning model suggested that the uncertainty facilitated the effective learning rate. These results suggest that the rats consider uncertainty in action-value estimation and that they have an uncertainty-seeking action policy and uncertainty-dependent modulation of the effective learning rate. PMID:22487046

  2. Box-Cox Mixed Logit Model for Travel Behavior Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orro, Alfonso; Novales, Margarita; Benitez, Francisco G.

    2010-09-01

    To represent the behavior of travelers when they are deciding how they are going to get to their destination, discrete choice models, based on the random utility theory, have become one of the most widely used tools. The field in which these models were developed was halfway between econometrics and transport engineering, although the latter now constitutes one of their principal areas of application. In the transport field, they have mainly been applied to mode choice, but also to the selection of destination, route, and other important decisions such as the vehicle ownership. In usual practice, the most frequently employed discrete choice models implement a fixed coefficient utility function that is linear in the parameters. The principal aim of this paper is to present the viability of specifying utility functions with random coefficients that are nonlinear in the parameters, in applications of discrete choice models to transport. Nonlinear specifications in the parameters were present in discrete choice theory at its outset, although they have seldom been used in practice until recently. The specification of random coefficients, however, began with the probit and the hedonic models in the 1970s, and, after a period of apparent little practical interest, has burgeoned into a field of intense activity in recent years with the new generation of mixed logit models. In this communication, we present a Box-Cox mixed logit model, original of the authors. It includes the estimation of the Box-Cox exponents in addition to the parameters of the random coefficients distribution. Probability of choose an alternative is an integral that will be calculated by simulation. The estimation of the model is carried out by maximizing the simulated log-likelihood of a sample of observed individual choices between alternatives. The differences between the predictions yielded by models that are inconsistent with real behavior have been studied with simulation experiments.

  3. Issues or Identity? Cognitive Foundations of Voter Choice.

    PubMed

    Jenke, Libby; Huettel, Scott A

    2016-11-01

    Voter choice is one of the most important problems in political science. The most common models assume that voting is a rational choice based on policy positions (e.g., key issues) and nonpolicy information (e.g., social identity, personality). Though such models explain macroscopic features of elections, they also reveal important anomalies that have been resistant to explanation. We argue for a new approach that builds upon recent research in cognitive science and neuroscience; specifically, we contend that policy positions and social identities do not combine in merely an additive manner, but compete to determine voter preferences. This model not only explains several key anomalies in voter choice, but also suggests new directions for research in both political science and cognitive science. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A Range-Normalization Model of Context-Dependent Choice: A New Model and Evidence

    PubMed Central

    Camerer, Colin

    2012-01-01

    Most utility theories of choice assume that the introduction of an irrelevant option (called the decoy) to a choice set does not change the preference between existing options. On the contrary, a wealth of behavioral data demonstrates the dependence of preference on the decoy and on the context in which the options are presented. Nevertheless, neural mechanisms underlying context-dependent preference are poorly understood. In order to shed light on these mechanisms, we design and perform a novel experiment to measure within-subject decoy effects. We find within-subject decoy effects similar to what have been shown previously with between-subject designs. More importantly, we find that not only are the decoy effects correlated, pointing to similar underlying mechanisms, but also these effects increase with the distance of the decoy from the original options. To explain these observations, we construct a plausible neuronal model that can account for decoy effects based on the trial-by-trial adjustment of neural representations to the set of available options. This adjustment mechanism, which we call range normalization, occurs when the nervous system is required to represent different stimuli distinguishably, while being limited to using bounded neural activity. The proposed model captures our experimental observations and makes new predictions about the influence of the choice set size on the decoy effects, which are in contrast to previous models of context-dependent choice preference. Critically, unlike previous psychological models, the computational resource required by our range-normalization model does not increase exponentially as the set size increases. Our results show that context-dependent choice behavior, which is commonly perceived as an irrational response to the presence of irrelevant options, could be a natural consequence of the biophysical limits of neural representation in the brain. PMID:22829761

  5. The malleability of intertemporal choice

    PubMed Central

    Lempert, Karolina M.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Intertemporal choices are ubiquitous: people often have to choose between outcomes realized at different times. Although it is generally believed that people have stable tendencies toward being impulsive or patient, an emerging body of evidence indicates that intertemporal choice is malleable and can be profoundly influenced by context. How the choice is framed, or the state of the decision-maker at the time of choice, can induce a shift in preference. Framing effects are underpinned by: allocation of attention to choice attributes, reference-dependence and time construal. Incidental affective states and prospection also influence intertemporal choice. We advocate that intertemporal choice models account for these context effects, and encourage the use of this knowledge to nudge people toward making more advantageous choices. PMID:26483153

  6. Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior

    PubMed Central

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents’ to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus ‘keep their options open’. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations. PMID:26564686

  7. The Role of Aspiration Level in Risky Choice: A Comparison of Cumulative Prospect Theory and SP/A Theory.

    PubMed

    Lopes; Oden

    1999-06-01

    In recent years, descriptive models of risky choice have incorporated features that reflect the importance of particular outcome values in choice. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) does this by inserting a reference point in the utility function. SP/A (security-potential/aspiration) theory uses aspiration level as a second criterion in the choice process. Experiment 1 compares the ability of the CPT and SP/A models to account for the same within-subjects data set and finds in favor of SP/A. Experiment 2 replicates the main finding of Experiment 1 in a between-subjects design. The final discussion brackets the SP/A result by showing the impact on fit of both decreasing and increasing the number of free parameters. We also suggest how the SP/A approach might be useful in modeling investment decision making in a descriptively more valid way and conclude with comments on the relation between descriptive and normative theories of risky choice. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  8. Predictors of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics choice options: A meta-analytic path analysis of the social-cognitive choice model by gender and race/ethnicity.

    PubMed

    Lent, Robert W; Sheu, Hung-Bin; Miller, Matthew J; Cusick, Megan E; Penn, Lee T; Truong, Nancy N

    2018-01-01

    We tested the interest and choice portion of social-cognitive career theory (SCCT; Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) in the context of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) domains. Data from 143 studies (including 196 independent samples) conducted over a 30-year period (1983 through 2013) were subjected to meta-analytic path analyses. The interest/choice model was found to fit the data well over all samples as well as within samples composed primarily of women and men and racial/ethnic minority and majority persons. The model also accounted for large portions of the variance in interests and choice goals within each path analysis. Despite the general predictive utility of SCCT across gender and racial/ethnic groups, we did find that several parameter estimates differed by group. We present both the group similarities and differences and consider their implications for future research, intervention, and theory refinement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Estimating current modal splits.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2005-11-01

    This project is the second part in a two part modeling effort. In previous work*, mode : choice was modeled by examining characteristics of individuals and the trips they make. : A study of the choices of individuals is necessary for a fundamental un...

  10. On the importance of methods in hydrological modelling. Perspectives from a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri

    2017-04-01

    The hydrological community generally appreciates that developing any non-trivial hydrological model requires a multitude of modelling choices. These choices may range from a (seemingly) straightforward application of mass conservation, to the (often) guesswork-like selection of constitutive functions, parameter values, etc. The application of a model itself requires a myriad of methodological choices - the selection of numerical solvers, objective functions for model calibration, validation approaches, performance metrics, etc. Not unreasonably, hydrologists embarking on ever ambitious projects prioritize hydrological insight over the morass of methodological choices. Perhaps to emphasize "ideas" over "methods", some journals have even reduced the fontsize of the methodology sections of its articles. However, the very nature of modelling is that seemingly routine methodological choices can significantly affect the conclusions of case studies and investigations - making it dangerous to skimp over methodological details in an enthusiastic rush towards the next great hydrological idea. This talk shares modelling insights from a hydrological study of a 300 km2 catchment in Luxembourg, where the diversity of hydrograph dynamics observed at 10 locations begs the question of whether external forcings or internal catchment properties act as dominant controls on streamflow generation. The hydrological insights are fascinating (at least to us), but in this talk we emphasize the impact of modelling methodology on case study conclusions and recommendations. How did we construct our prior set of hydrological model hypotheses? What numerical solver was implemented and why was an objective function based on Bayesian theory deployed? And what would have happened had we omitted model cross-validation, or not used a systematic hypothesis testing approach?

  11. Vegetarian or meat? Food choice modeling of main dishes occurs outside of awareness.

    PubMed

    Christie, Chelsea D; Chen, Frances S

    2018-02-01

    It is well established that the amount eaten by other people affects how much we eat, but unanswered questions exist regarding how much the food choices of other people affect the types of food that we choose. Past research on food choice modeling has primarily been conducted in controlled laboratory situations and has focused on snack foods. The current research examines the extent to which food choice modeling of a main dish occurs in a real-life context and whether people are aware of being influenced by others. The lunch orders of café patrons were surreptitiously tracked and participants were recruited after they paid for their lunch. Participants were asked what they ordered, whether they were influenced by the prior order, and what their relationship was to the person ahead of them in line. We analyzed the data of participants who were not acquainted with the person ahead of them (N = 174). As hypothesized, participants' main-dish lunch orders matched the choice of the person ordering ahead of them in line at rates significantly higher than chance. A significant modeling effect was observed even among participants who reported that their order was not influenced by the prior order. This research provided evidence of main-dish choice modeling occurring in real-life eating situations and outside of conscious awareness - demonstrating a powerful social influence on eating behaviours. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Forced-Choice Assessment of Work-Related Maladaptive Personality Traits: Preliminary Evidence From an Application of Thurstonian Item Response Modeling.

    PubMed

    Guenole, Nigel; Brown, Anna A; Cooper, Andrew J

    2018-06-01

    This article describes an investigation of whether Thurstonian item response modeling is a viable method for assessment of maladaptive traits. Forced-choice responses from 420 working adults to a broad-range personality inventory assessing six maladaptive traits were considered. The Thurstonian item response model's fit to the forced-choice data was adequate, while the fit of a counterpart item response model to responses to the same items but arranged in a single-stimulus design was poor. Monotrait heteromethod correlations indicated corresponding traits in the two formats overlapped substantially, although they did not measure equivalent constructs. A better goodness of fit and higher factor loadings for the Thurstonian item response model, coupled with a clearer conceptual alignment to the theoretical trait definitions, suggested that the single-stimulus item responses were influenced by biases that the independent clusters measurement model did not account for. Researchers may wish to consider forced-choice designs and appropriate item response modeling techniques such as Thurstonian item response modeling for personality questionnaire applications in industrial psychology, especially when assessing maladaptive traits. We recommend further investigation of this approach in actual selection situations and with different assessment instruments.

  13. Perceived and Implicit Ranking of Academic Journals: An Optimization Choice Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xie, Frank Tian; Cai, Jane Z.; Pan, Yue

    2012-01-01

    A new system of ranking academic journals is proposed in this study and optimization choice model used to analyze data collected from 346 faculty members in a business discipline. The ranking model uses the aggregation of perceived, implicit sequencing of academic journals by academicians, therefore eliminating several key shortcomings of previous…

  14. Application of a Multidimensional Nested Logit Model to Multiple-Choice Test Items

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolt, Daniel M.; Wollack, James A.; Suh, Youngsuk

    2012-01-01

    Nested logit models have been presented as an alternative to multinomial logistic models for multiple-choice test items (Suh and Bolt in "Psychometrika" 75:454-473, 2010) and possess a mathematical structure that naturally lends itself to evaluating the incremental information provided by attending to distractor selection in scoring. One potential…

  15. Graduate School Choice: An Examination of Individual and Institutional Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    English, David; Umbach, Paul D.

    2016-01-01

    Using the 2000/01 Baccalaureate & Beyond Longitudinal Study (B&B:00/01), this paper employs multilevel modeling to test a conceptual model of graduate school choice that draws significantly from human capital theory while incorporating the salient concepts of cultural and social capital. The model posits that the graduate school choice…

  16. A Conceptual Model of Leisure-Time Choice Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergier, Michel J.

    1981-01-01

    Methods of studying the gap between predisposition and actual behavior of consumers of spectator sports is discussed. A model is drawn from the areas of behavioral sciences, consumer behavior, and leisure research. The model is constructed around the premise that choice is primarily a function of personal, product, and environmental factors. (JN)

  17. Formulating a New Model of College Choice and Persistence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Southerland, J. Nathaniel

    2006-01-01

    The study of college choice and persistence enjoys a lengthy history. However, many of the prominent models upon which the majority of research in these fields is based arise from studies involving traditional 18- to 22-year-old residential students. This paper investigates the rapidly-evolving student population and formulates a new model for…

  18. A Model of Postsecondary and Adult Student Choice Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hollenbeck, Kevin

    A model was developed of the choice-making behavior of students participating in postsecondary occupational education. The model was estimated empirically with data from a national survey of public or nonprofit institutions that offer such education, conducted in spring 1987. The survey involved 432 institutions and 3,330 students. Data were…

  19. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  20. The stay/switch model describes choice among magnitudes of reinforcers.

    PubMed

    MacDonall, James S

    2008-06-01

    The stay/switch model is an alternative to the generalized matching law for describing choice in concurrent procedures. The purpose of the present experiment was to extend this model to choice among magnitudes of reinforcers. Rats were exposed to conditions in which the magnitude of reinforcers (number of food pellets) varied for staying at alternative 1, switching from alternative 1, staying at alternative 2 and switching from alternative 2. A changeover delay was not used. The results showed that the stay/switch model provided a good account of the data overall, and deviations from fits of the generalized matching law to response allocation data were in the direction predicted by the stay/switch model. In addition, comparisons among specific conditions suggested that varying the ratio of obtained reinforcers, as in the generalized matching law, was not necessary to change the response and time allocations. Other comparisons suggested that varying the ratio of obtained reinforcers was not sufficient to change response allocation. Taken together these results provide additional support for the stay/switch model of concurrent choice.

  1. Context-dependent preferences in starlings: linking ecology, foraging and choice.

    PubMed

    Vasconcelos, Marco; Monteiro, Tiago; Kacelnik, Alex

    2013-01-01

    Foraging animals typically encounter opportunities that they either pursue or skip, but occasionally meet several alternatives simultaneously. Behavioural ecologists predict preferences using absolute properties of each option, while decision theorists focus on relative evaluations at the time of choice. We use European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) to integrate ecological reasoning with decision models, linking and testing hypotheses for value acquisition and choice mechanism. We hypothesise that options' values depend jointly on absolute attributes, learning context, and subject's state. In simultaneous choices, preference could result either from comparing subjective values using deliberation time, or from processing each alternative independently, without relative comparisons. The combination of the value acquisition hypothesis and independent processing at choice time has been called the Sequential Choice Model. We test this model with options equated in absolute properties to exclude the possibility of preference being built at the time of choice. Starlings learned to obtain food by responding to four stimuli in two contexts. In context [AB], they encountered options A5 or B10 in random alternation; in context [CD], they met C10 or D20. Delay to food is denoted, in seconds, by the suffixes. Observed latency to respond (Li) to each option alone (our measure of value) ranked thus: LA≈LC

  2. Effects of monetary reserves and rate of gain on human risky choice under budget constraints.

    PubMed

    Pietras, Cynthia J; Searcy, Gabriel D; Huitema, Brad E; Brandt, Andrew E

    2008-07-01

    The energy-budget rule is an optimal foraging model that predicts that choice should be risk averse when net gains plus reserves meet energy requirements (positive energy-budget conditions) and risk prone when net gains plus reserves fall below requirements (negative energy-budget conditions). Studies have shown that the energy-budget rule provides a good description of risky choice in humans when choice is studied under economic conditions (i.e., earnings budgets) that simulate positive and negative energy budgets. In previous human studies, earnings budgets were manipulated by varying earnings requirements, but in most nonhuman studies, energy budgets have been manipulated by varying reserves and/or mean rates of reinforcement. The present study therefore investigated choice in humans between certain and variable monetary outcomes when earnings budgets were manipulated by varying monetary reserves and mean rates of monetary gain. Consistent with the energy-budget rule, choice tended to be risk averse under positive-budget conditions and risk neutral or risk prone under negative-budget conditions. Sequential choices were also well described by a dynamic optimization model, especially when expected earnings for optimal choices were high. These results replicate and extend the results of prior experiments in showing that humans' choices are generally consistent with the predictions of the energy-budget rule when studied under conditions analogous to those used in nonhuman energy-budget studies, and that choice patterns tend to maximize reinforcement.

  3. Discrete Choice Modeling (DCM): An Exciting Marketing Research Survey Method for Educational Researchers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berdie, Doug R.

    Discrete Choice Marketing (DCM), a research technique that has become more popular in recent marketing research, is described. DCM is a method that forces people to look at the combination of relevant variables within each choice domain and, with each option fully defined in terms of the values for those variables, make a choice of options. DCM…

  4. The Dynamics of Study-Work Choice and Its Effect on Intended and Actual University Attainment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gong, Xiaodong

    2017-01-01

    We study the dynamics of study-work choices of Australian high school students and how these choices affect intended and actual enrolment in universities when they finish their school education. A dynamic random effect multi-equation model is constructed and estimated. We find that study-work choices are state dependent, driven by student…

  5. Multilevel models for cost-effectiveness analyses that use cluster randomised trial data: An approach to model choice.

    PubMed

    Ng, Edmond S-W; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Grieve, Richard; Nixon, Richard M; Thompson, Simon G; Carpenter, James R

    2016-10-01

    Multilevel models provide a flexible modelling framework for cost-effectiveness analyses that use cluster randomised trial data. However, there is a lack of guidance on how to choose the most appropriate multilevel models. This paper illustrates an approach for deciding what level of model complexity is warranted; in particular how best to accommodate complex variance-covariance structures, right-skewed costs and missing data. Our proposed models differ according to whether or not they allow individual-level variances and correlations to differ across treatment arms or clusters and by the assumed cost distribution (Normal, Gamma, Inverse Gaussian). The models are fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Our approach to model choice is based on four main criteria: the characteristics of the data, model pre-specification informed by the previous literature, diagnostic plots and assessment of model appropriateness. This is illustrated by re-analysing a previous cost-effectiveness analysis that uses data from a cluster randomised trial. We find that the most useful criterion for model choice was the deviance information criterion, which distinguishes amongst models with alternative variance-covariance structures, as well as between those with different cost distributions. This strategy for model choice can help cost-effectiveness analyses provide reliable inferences for policy-making when using cluster trials, including those with missing data. © The Author(s) 2013.

  6. Route-choice modeling using GPS-based travel surveys.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-06-01

    The advent of GPS-based travel surveys offers an opportunity to develop empirically-rich route-choice models. However, the GPS traces must first be mapped to the roadway network, map-matching, to identify the network-links actually traversed. For thi...

  7. Patient choice modelling: how do patients choose their hospitals?

    PubMed

    Smith, Honora; Currie, Christine; Chaiwuttisak, Pornpimol; Kyprianou, Andreas

    2018-06-01

    As an aid to predicting future hospital admissions, we compare use of the Multinomial Logit and the Utility Maximising Nested Logit models to describe how patients choose their hospitals. The models are fitted to real data from Derbyshire, United Kingdom, which lists the postcodes of more than 200,000 admissions to six different local hospitals. Both elective and emergency admissions are analysed for this mixed urban/rural area. For characteristics that may affect a patient's choice of hospital, we consider the distance of the patient from the hospital, the number of beds at the hospital and the number of car parking spaces available at the hospital, as well as several statistics publicly available on National Health Service (NHS) websites: an average waiting time, the patient survey score for ward cleanliness, the patient safety score and the inpatient survey score for overall care. The Multinomial Logit model is successfully fitted to the data. Results obtained with the Utility Maximising Nested Logit model show that nesting according to city or town may be invalid for these data; in other words, the choice of hospital does not appear to be preceded by choice of city. In all of the analysis carried out, distance appears to be one of the main influences on a patient's choice of hospital rather than statistics available on the Internet.

  8. Experimental and computational models of neurite extension at a choice point in response to controlled diffusive gradients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catig, G. C.; Figueroa, S.; Moore, M. J.

    2015-08-01

    Ojective. Axons are guided toward desired targets through a series of choice points that they navigate by sensing cues in the cellular environment. A better understanding of how microenvironmental factors influence neurite growth during development can inform strategies to address nerve injury. Therefore, there is a need for biomimetic models to systematically investigate the influence of guidance cues at such choice points. Approach. We ran an adapted in silico biased turning axon growth model under the influence of nerve growth factor (NGF) and compared the results to corresponding in vitro experiments. We examined if growth simulations were predictive of neurite population behavior at a choice point. We used a biphasic micropatterned hydrogel system consisting of an outer cell restrictive mold that enclosed a bifurcated cell permissive region and placed a well near a bifurcating end to allow proteins to diffuse and form a gradient. Experimental diffusion profiles in these constructs were used to validate a diffusion computational model that utilized experimentally measured diffusion coefficients in hydrogels. The computational diffusion model was then used to establish defined soluble gradients within the permissive region of the hydrogels and maintain the profiles in physiological ranges for an extended period of time. Computational diffusion profiles informed the neurite growth model, which was compared with neurite growth experiments in the bifurcating hydrogel constructs. Main results. Results indicated that when applied to the constrained choice point geometry, the biased turning model predicted experimental behavior closely. Results for both simulated and in vitro neurite growth studies showed a significant chemoattractive response toward the bifurcated end containing an NGF gradient compared to the control, though some neurites were found in the end with no NGF gradient. Significance. The integrated model of neurite growth we describe will allow comparison of experimental studies against growth cone guidance computational models applied to axon pathfinding at choice points.

  9. Choice and ego-depletion: the moderating role of autonomy.

    PubMed

    Moller, Arlen C; Deci, Edward L; Ryan, Richard M

    2006-08-01

    The self-regulatory strength model maintains that all acts of self-regulation, self-control, and choice result in a state of fatigue called ego-depletion. Self-determination theory differentiates between autonomous regulation and controlled regulation. Because making decisions represents one instance of self-regulation, the authors also differentiate between autonomous choice and controlled choice. Three experiments support the hypothesis that whereas conditions representing controlled choice would be egodepleting, conditions that represented autonomous choice would not. In Experiment 3, the authors found significant mediation by perceived self-determination of the relation between the choice condition (autonomous vs. controlled) and ego-depletion as measured by performance.

  10. Modeling the Theory of Planned Behavior from Survey Data for Action Choice in Social Simulations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-03-01

    develop an argument for the benefits of informing action choice models such as TPB from representative survey data. 1. Introduction Icek Ajzen’s...matter expert (SME) input, such as the development of narrative ethnographies, and quantitative survey and polling data, such as the U.S. General...societies, a full description of the TPB implementation within an artificial society, and develop an argument for the benefits of informing action choice

  11. Career Choices: Reducing Sex-Role Stereotyping in Careers. A Model Career Decision-Making Program to Reduce the Effects of Sex-Role Stereotyping in the Career Choices of Senior High Students. Final Project Performance Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Jody

    A model career decision-making program to reduce the effects of sex-role stereotyping in career choices of senior high school students was conducted at Columbine High School (Lakewood, Colorado). Project goals included the following: (1) to provide students with self-awareness and career-decision-making activities designed to broaden options these…

  12. How the health belief model helps the tobacco industry: individuals, choice, and "information".

    PubMed

    Balbach, Edith D; Smith, Elizabeth A; Malone, Ruth E

    2006-12-01

    To analyse trial and deposition testimony of tobacco industry executives to determine how they use the concepts of "information" and "choice" and consider how these concepts are related to theoretical models of health behaviour change. We coded and analysed transcripts of trial and deposition testimony of 14 high-level executives representing six companies plus the Tobacco Institute. We conducted an interpretive analysis of industry executives' characterisation of the industry's role as information provider and the agency of tobacco consumers in making "choices". Tobacco industry executives deployed the concept of "information" as a mechanism that shifted to consumers full moral responsibility for the harms caused by tobacco products. The industry's role was characterised as that of impartial supplier of value-free "information", without regard to its quality, accuracy and truthfulness. Tobacco industry legal defences rely on assumptions congruent with and supported by individual rational choice theories, particularly those that emphasise individual, autonomous decision-makers. Tobacco control advocates and health educators must challenge the industry's preferred framing, pointing out that "information" is not value-free. Multi-level, multi-sectoral interventions are critical to tobacco use prevention. Over-reliance on individual and interpersonal rational choice models may have the effect of validating the industry's model of smoking and cessation behaviour, absolving it of responsibility and rendering invisible the "choices" the industry has made and continues to make in promoting the most deadly consumer product ever made.

  13. Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice.

    PubMed

    Towal, R Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

    2013-10-01

    Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift-diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions.

  14. Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice

    PubMed Central

    Towal, R. Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

    2013-01-01

    Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift–diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions. PMID:24019496

  15. Trait impulsive choice predicts resistance to extinction and propensity to relapse to cocaine seeking: a bidirectional investigation.

    PubMed

    Broos, Nienke; Diergaarde, Leontien; Schoffelmeer, Anton Nm; Pattij, Tommy; De Vries, Taco J

    2012-05-01

    Despite the strong association between impulsivity and addiction in humans, it is still a matter of debate whether impulsive choice predisposes to, or results from, drug dependence. Furthermore, it is unknown whether treating impulsivity can protect against relapse propensity. Therefore, this study explored the bidirectional relationship between impulsive choice and cocaine taking and seeking in rat behavioral models. In experiment 1, to determine whether impulsive choice predisposes to cocaine taking or seeking, rats were selected based on trait impulsivity in a delayed reward task and subsequently compared on various stages of cocaine self-administration (SA). To examine the consequence of cocaine intake on impulsive choice, impulsivity was monitored once a week throughout various stages of cocaine SA. To determine whether treating impulsive choice can protect against relapse propensity, in experiment 2, impulsive choice was manipulated by pharmacological interventions and cocaine-associated contextual cues. Trait impulsive choice as determined in experiment 1 predicted high extinction resistance and enhanced propensity to context-induced relapse in the cocaine SA model, whereas cocaine intake did not alter impulsive choice. Furthermore, acute changes in impulsive choice were not related to rates of context-induced relapse. Taken together, the current data indicate that trait impulsive choice predicts persistent cocaine seeking during extinction and enhanced propensity to relapse, whereas acute manipulations of impulsive choice had no favorable outcomes on relapse measures. These observations suggest that trait impulsivity can be used as a predictive factor for addiction liability, but treating this impulsivity does not necessarily protect against relapse.

  16. Optimal assessment of multiple cues.

    PubMed Central

    Fawcett, Tim W; Johnstone, Rufus A

    2003-01-01

    In a wide range of contexts from mate choice to foraging, animals are required to discriminate between alternative options on the basis of multiple cues. How should they best assess such complex multicomponent stimuli? Here, we construct a model to investigate this problem, focusing on a simple case where a 'chooser' faces a discrimination task involving two cues. These cues vary in their accuracy and in how costly they are to assess. As an example, we consider a mate-choice situation where females choose between males of differing quality. Our model predicts the following: (i) females should become less choosy as the cost of finding new males increases; (ii) females should prioritize cues differently depending on how choosy they are; (iii) females may sometimes prioritize less accurate cues; and (iv) which cues are most important depends on the abundance of desirable mates. These predictions are testable in mate-choice experiments where the costs of choice can be manipulated. Our findings are applicable to other discrimination tasks besides mate choice, for example a predator's choice between palatable and unpalatable prey, or an altruist's choice between kin and non-kin. PMID:12908986

  17. A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

    DOE PAGES

    Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun; ...

    2017-11-08

    Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

  18. A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun

    Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

  19. Incorporating environmental attitudes in discrete choice models: an exploration of the utility of the awareness of consequences scale.

    PubMed

    Hoyos, David; Mariel, Petr; Hess, Stephane

    2015-02-01

    Environmental economists are increasingly interested in better understanding how people cognitively organise their beliefs and attitudes towards environmental change in order to identify key motives and barriers that stimulate or prevent action. In this paper, we explore the utility of a commonly used psychometric scale, the awareness of consequences (AC) scale, in order to better understand stated choices. The main contribution of the paper is that it provides a novel approach to incorporate attitudinal information into discrete choice models for environmental valuation: firstly, environmental attitudes are incorporated using a reinterpretation of the classical AC scale recently proposed by Ryan and Spash (2012); and, secondly, attitudinal data is incorporated as latent variables under a hybrid choice modelling framework. This novel approach is applied to data from a survey conducted in the Basque Country (Spain) in 2008 aimed at valuing land-use policies in a Natura 2000 Network site. The results are relevant to policy-making because choice models that are able to accommodate underlying environmental attitudes may help in designing more effective environmental policies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A Multiple-Choice Task with Changes of Mind

    PubMed Central

    Albantakis, Larissa; Branzi, Francesca M.; Costa, Albert; Deco, Gustavo

    2012-01-01

    The role of changes of mind and multiple choices has recently received increased attention in the study of perceptual decision-making. Previously, these extensions to standard two-alternative tasks have been studied separately. Here we explored how changes of mind depend on the number of choice-alternatives. To this end, we tested 14 human subjects on a 2- and 4-alternative direction-discrimination task. Changes of mind in the participants' movement trajectories could be observed for two and for four choice alternatives. With fewer alternatives, participants responded faster and more accurately. The frequency of changes of mind, however, did not significantly differ for the different numbers of choice alternatives. Nevertheless, mind-changing improved the participants' final performance, particularly for intermediate difficulty levels, in both experimental conditions. Moreover, the mean reaction times of individual participants were negatively correlated with their overall tendency to make changes of mind. We further reproduced these findings with a multi-alternative attractor model for decision-making, while a simple race model could not account for the experimental data. Our experiment, combined with the theoretical models allowed us to shed light on: (1) the differences in choice behavior between two and four alternatives, (2) the differences between the data of our human subjects and previous monkey data, (3) individual differences between participants, and (4) the inhibitory interaction between neural representations of choice alternatives. PMID:22916216

  1. Women's perceptions of their right to choose the place of childbirth: an integrative review.

    PubMed

    Hadjigeorgiou, Eleni; Kouta, Christiana; Papastavrou, Evridiki; Papadopoulos, Irena; Mårtensson, Lena B

    2012-06-01

    to provide a critical synthesis of published research concerning women's experiences in choosing where to give birth. an integrative literature review was conducted using three databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL and Ovid) for 1997-2009. Inclusion criteria were: (1) publication in the English language; (2) research article; (3) focus on women's perceptions for their birthplace choices; and (4) data collected during pregnancy, at birth and post partum. twenty-one research-based papers met the inclusion criteria, and these used a range of approaches and methods. Four themes were derived from the data: choice of birthplace and medicalisation of childbirth; the midwifery model of care and the rhetoric of birthplace choices; perceptions of safety shaped women's preferences; and choice is related to women's autonomy. there is considerable evidence that women worldwide wish to be able to exercise their rights and make informed choices about where to give birth. The medical model remains a strong and powerful influence on women's decisions in many countries. The midwifery model offers birthplace choices to women, while policies and culture in some countries affect midwifery practise. Perceptions of safety shaped women's preferences, and women's autonomy facilitated birthplace choices. these findings can be seen as a challenge for health professionals and policy makers to improve perinatal care based on women's needs. Local research is advisable due to cultural and health system differences. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Cognitive Control Predicts Use of Model-Based Reinforcement-Learning

    PubMed Central

    Otto, A. Ross; Skatova, Anya; Madlon-Kay, Seth; Daw, Nathaniel D.

    2015-01-01

    Accounts of decision-making and its neural substrates have long posited the operation of separate, competing valuation systems in the control of choice behavior. Recent theoretical and experimental work suggest that this classic distinction between behaviorally and neurally dissociable systems for habitual and goal-directed (or more generally, automatic and controlled) choice may arise from two computational strategies for reinforcement learning (RL), called model-free and model-based RL, but the cognitive or computational processes by which one system may dominate over the other in the control of behavior is a matter of ongoing investigation. To elucidate this question, we leverage the theoretical framework of cognitive control, demonstrating that individual differences in utilization of goal-related contextual information—in the service of overcoming habitual, stimulus-driven responses—in established cognitive control paradigms predict model-based behavior in a separate, sequential choice task. The behavioral correspondence between cognitive control and model-based RL compellingly suggests that a common set of processes may underpin the two behaviors. In particular, computational mechanisms originally proposed to underlie controlled behavior may be applicable to understanding the interactions between model-based and model-free choice behavior. PMID:25170791

  3. Loss Aversion and Inhibition in Dynamical Models of Multialternative Choice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Usher, Marius; McClelland, James L.

    2004-01-01

    The roles of loss aversion and inhibition among alternatives are examined in models of the similarity, compromise, and attraction effects that arise in choices among 3 alternatives differing on 2 attributes. R. M. Roe, J. R. Busemeyer, and J. T. Townsend (2001) have proposed a linear model in which effects previously attributed to loss aversion…

  4. Random Behaviour or Rational Choice? Family Planning, Teenage Pregnancy and Sexually Transmitted Infections

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paton, David

    2006-01-01

    Rational choice models of teenage sexual behaviour lead to radically different predictions than do models that assume such behaviour is random. Existing empirical evidence has not been able to distinguish conclusively between these competing models. I use regional data from England between 1998 and 2001 to examine the impact of recent increases in…

  5. Truck Choice Modeling: Understanding California's Transition to Zero-Emission Vehicle Trucks Taking into Account Truck Technologies, Costs, and Fleet Decision Behavior

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2017-11-01

    This report presents the results of a project to develop a truck vehicle/fuel decision choice model for California and to use that model to make initial projections of truck sales by technology out to 2050. The report also describes the linkage of th...

  6. A Decision Model for Steady-State Choice in Concurrent Chains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christensen, Darren R.; Grace, Randolph C.

    2010-01-01

    Grace and McLean (2006) proposed a decision model for acquisition of choice in concurrent chains which assumes that after reinforcement in a terminal link, subjects make a discrimination whether the preceding reinforcer delay was short or long relative to a criterion. Their model was subsequently extended by Christensen and Grace (2008, 2009a,…

  7. Complexity of Choice: Teachers' and Students' Experiences Implementing a Choice-Based Comprehensive School Health Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sulz, Lauren; Gibbons, Sandra; Naylor, Patti-Jean; Wharf Higgins, Joan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Comprehensive School Health models offer a promising strategy to elicit changes in student health behaviours. To maximise the effect of such models, the active involvement of teachers and students in the change process is recommended. Objective: The goal of this project was to gain insight into the experiences and motivations of…

  8. In Search of the Wild Things: The Choice, Voice, and Challenge (CVC) Model for Creative Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perkins, Emma Gillespie; Carter, Mary C.

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the Choice, Voice, and Challenge (CVC) Instruction, an instructional model that encourages creativity or "wild things". CVC Instruction defines ways in which classroom teachers may provide vehicles for their students' mental journeys that can lead to creative and imaginative actions and outcomes. The CVC model provides a…

  9. The Multiple-Choice Model: Some Solutions for Estimation of Parameters in the Presence of Omitted Responses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abad, Francisco J.; Olea, Julio; Ponsoda, Vicente

    2009-01-01

    This article deals with some of the problems that have hindered the application of Samejima's and Thissen and Steinberg's multiple-choice models: (a) parameter estimation difficulties owing to the large number of parameters involved, (b) parameter identifiability problems in the Thissen and Steinberg model, and (c) their treatment of omitted…

  10. Model Choice and Sample Size in Item Response Theory Analysis of Aphasia Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hula, William D.; Fergadiotis, Gerasimos; Martin, Nadine

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify the most appropriate item response theory (IRT) measurement model for aphasia tests requiring 2-choice responses and to determine whether small samples are adequate for estimating such models. Method: Pyramids and Palm Trees (Howard & Patterson, 1992) test data that had been collected from…

  11. Analyzing the impact of modeling choices and assumptions in compartmental epidemiological models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Nutaro, James J.; Pullum, Laura L.; Ramanathan, Arvind

    In this study, computational models have become increasingly used as part of modeling, predicting, and understanding how infectious diseases spread within large populations. These models can be broadly classified into differential equation-based models (EBM) and agent-based models (ABM). Both types of models are central in aiding public health officials design intervention strategies in case of large epidemic outbreaks. We examine these models in the context of illuminating their hidden assumptions and the impact these may have on the model outcomes. Very few ABM/EBMs are evaluated for their suitability to address a particular public health concern, and drawing relevant conclusions aboutmore » their suitability requires reliable and relevant information regarding the different modeling strategies and associated assumptions. Hence, there is a need to determine how the different modeling strategies, choices of various parameters, and the resolution of information for EBMs and ABMs affect outcomes, including predictions of disease spread. In this study, we present a quantitative analysis of how the selection of model types (i.e., EBM vs. ABM), the underlying assumptions that are enforced by model types to model the disease propagation process, and the choice of time advance (continuous vs. discrete) affect the overall outcomes of modeling disease spread. Our study reveals that the magnitude and velocity of the simulated epidemic depends critically on the selection of modeling principles, various assumptions of disease process, and the choice of time advance.« less

  12. Analyzing the impact of modeling choices and assumptions in compartmental epidemiological models

    DOE PAGES

    Nutaro, James J.; Pullum, Laura L.; Ramanathan, Arvind; ...

    2016-05-01

    In this study, computational models have become increasingly used as part of modeling, predicting, and understanding how infectious diseases spread within large populations. These models can be broadly classified into differential equation-based models (EBM) and agent-based models (ABM). Both types of models are central in aiding public health officials design intervention strategies in case of large epidemic outbreaks. We examine these models in the context of illuminating their hidden assumptions and the impact these may have on the model outcomes. Very few ABM/EBMs are evaluated for their suitability to address a particular public health concern, and drawing relevant conclusions aboutmore » their suitability requires reliable and relevant information regarding the different modeling strategies and associated assumptions. Hence, there is a need to determine how the different modeling strategies, choices of various parameters, and the resolution of information for EBMs and ABMs affect outcomes, including predictions of disease spread. In this study, we present a quantitative analysis of how the selection of model types (i.e., EBM vs. ABM), the underlying assumptions that are enforced by model types to model the disease propagation process, and the choice of time advance (continuous vs. discrete) affect the overall outcomes of modeling disease spread. Our study reveals that the magnitude and velocity of the simulated epidemic depends critically on the selection of modeling principles, various assumptions of disease process, and the choice of time advance.« less

  13. Uncertainty in action-value estimation affects both action choice and learning rate of the choice behaviors of rats.

    PubMed

    Funamizu, Akihiro; Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji; Kanzaki, Ryohei; Takahashi, Hirokazu

    2012-04-01

    The estimation of reward outcomes for action candidates is essential for decision making. In this study, we examined whether and how the uncertainty in reward outcome estimation affects the action choice and learning rate. We designed a choice task in which rats selected either the left-poking or right-poking hole and received a reward of a food pellet stochastically. The reward probabilities of the left and right holes were chosen from six settings (high, 100% vs. 66%; mid, 66% vs. 33%; low, 33% vs. 0% for the left vs. right holes, and the opposites) in every 20-549 trials. We used Bayesian Q-learning models to estimate the time course of the probability distribution of action values and tested if they better explain the behaviors of rats than standard Q-learning models that estimate only the mean of action values. Model comparison by cross-validation revealed that a Bayesian Q-learning model with an asymmetric update for reward and non-reward outcomes fit the choice time course of the rats best. In the action-choice equation of the Bayesian Q-learning model, the estimated coefficient for the variance of action value was positive, meaning that rats were uncertainty seeking. Further analysis of the Bayesian Q-learning model suggested that the uncertainty facilitated the effective learning rate. These results suggest that the rats consider uncertainty in action-value estimation and that they have an uncertainty-seeking action policy and uncertainty-dependent modulation of the effective learning rate. © 2012 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2012 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  14. Understanding the Hows and Whys of Decision-Making: From Expected Utility to Divisive Normalization.

    PubMed

    Glimcher, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of the last century, economists and ethologists have built detailed models from first principles of how humans and animals should make decisions. Over the course of the last few decades, psychologists and behavioral economists have gathered a wealth of data at variance with the predictions of these economic models. This has led to the development of highly descriptive models that can often predict what choices people or animals will make but without offering any insight into why people make the choices that they do--especially when those choices reduce a decision-maker's well-being. Over the course of the last two decades, neurobiologists working with economists and psychologists have begun to use our growing understanding of how the nervous system works to develop new models of how the nervous system makes decisions. The result, a growing revolution at the interdisciplinary border of neuroscience, psychology, and economics, is a new field called Neuroeconomics. Emerging neuroeconomic models stand to revolutionize our understanding of human and animal choice behavior by combining fundamental properties of neurobiological representation with decision-theoretic analyses. In this overview, one class of these models, based on the widely observed neural computation known as divisive normalization, is presented in detail. The work demonstrates not only that a discrete class of computation widely observed in the nervous system is fundamentally ubiquitous, but how that computation shapes behaviors ranging from visual perception to financial decision-making. It also offers the hope of reconciling economic analysis of what choices we should make with psychological observations of the choices we actually do make. Copyright © 2014 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press; all rights reserved.

  15. Neural Activity Reveals Preferences Without Choices

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Alec; Bernheim, B. Douglas; Camerer, Colin

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the feasibility of inferring the choices people would make (if given the opportunity) based on their neural responses to the pertinent prospects when they are not engaged in actual decision making. The ability to make such inferences is of potential value when choice data are unavailable, or limited in ways that render standard methods of estimating choice mappings problematic. We formulate prediction models relating choices to “non-choice” neural responses and use them to predict out-of-sample choices for new items and for new groups of individuals. The predictions are sufficiently accurate to establish the feasibility of our approach. PMID:25729468

  16. Do choices of sport fisheries reflect angler preferences for site attributes?

    Treesearch

    Harris. Charles C.; B. L. Driver; Bergersen. E. P.

    1985-01-01

    A revised recreation choice model is proposed and partially tested using results of a 1980 survey of Colorado anglers. Results of discriminant analyses show modest and useful prediction from preference for trout fishery site attributes to choice of type of fishery used.

  17. People learn other people's preferences through inverse decision-making.

    PubMed

    Jern, Alan; Lucas, Christopher G; Kemp, Charles

    2017-11-01

    People are capable of learning other people's preferences by observing the choices they make. We propose that this learning relies on inverse decision-making-inverting a decision-making model to infer the preferences that led to an observed choice. In Experiment 1, participants observed 47 choices made by others and ranked them by how strongly each choice suggested that the decision maker had a preference for a specific item. An inverse decision-making model generated predictions that were in accordance with participants' inferences. Experiment 2 replicated and extended a previous study by Newtson (1974) in which participants observed pairs of choices and made judgments about which choice provided stronger evidence for a preference. Inverse decision-making again predicted the results, including a result that previous accounts could not explain. Experiment 3 used the same method as Experiment 2 and found that participants did not expect decision makers to be perfect utility-maximizers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. A review of game-theoretic models of road user behaviour.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews game-theoretic models that have been developed to explain road user behaviour in situations where road users interact with each other. The paper includes the following game-theoretic models: 1.A general model of the interaction between road users and their possible reaction to measures improving safety (behavioural adaptation).2.Choice of vehicle size as a Prisoners’ dilemma game.3.Speed choice as a co-ordination game.4.Speed compliance as a game between drivers and the police.5.Merging into traffic from an acceleration lane as a mixed-strategy game.6.Choice of level of attention in following situations as an evolutionary game.7.Choice of departure time to avoid congestion as variant of a Prisoners’ dilemma game.8.Interaction between cyclists crossing the road and car drivers.9.Dipping headlights at night well ahead of the point when glare becomes noticeable.10.Choice of evasive action in a situation when cars are on collision course. The models reviewed are different in many respects, but a common feature of the models is that they can explain how informal norms of behaviour can develop among road users and be sustained even if these informal norms violate the formal regulations of the traffic code. Game-theoretic models are not applicable to every conceivable interaction between road users or to situations in which road users choose behaviour without interacting with other road users. Nevertheless, it is likely that game-theoretic models can be applied more widely than they have been until now. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Neural signatures of experience-based improvements in deterministic decision-making.

    PubMed

    Tremel, Joshua J; Laurent, Patryk A; Wolk, David A; Wheeler, Mark E; Fiez, Julie A

    2016-12-15

    Feedback about our choices is a crucial part of how we gather information and learn from our environment. It provides key information about decision experiences that can be used to optimize future choices. However, our understanding of the processes through which feedback translates into improved decision-making is lacking. Using neuroimaging (fMRI) and cognitive models of decision-making and learning, we examined the influence of feedback on multiple aspects of decision processes across learning. Subjects learned correct choices to a set of 50 word pairs across eight repetitions of a concurrent discrimination task. Behavioral measures were then analyzed with both a drift-diffusion model and a reinforcement learning model. Parameter values from each were then used as fMRI regressors to identify regions whose activity fluctuates with specific cognitive processes described by the models. The patterns of intersecting neural effects across models support two main inferences about the influence of feedback on decision-making. First, frontal, anterior insular, fusiform, and caudate nucleus regions behave like performance monitors, reflecting errors in performance predictions that signal the need for changes in control over decision-making. Second, temporoparietal, supplementary motor, and putamen regions behave like mnemonic storage sites, reflecting differences in learned item values that inform optimal decision choices. As information about optimal choices is accrued, these neural systems dynamically adjust, likely shifting the burden of decision processing from controlled performance monitoring to bottom-up, stimulus-driven choice selection. Collectively, the results provide a detailed perspective on the fundamental ability to use past experiences to improve future decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Distinguishing bias from sensitivity effects in multialternative detection tasks.

    PubMed

    Sridharan, Devarajan; Steinmetz, Nicholas A; Moore, Tirin; Knudsen, Eric I

    2014-08-21

    Studies investigating the neural bases of cognitive phenomena increasingly employ multialternative detection tasks that seek to measure the ability to detect a target stimulus or changes in some target feature (e.g., orientation or direction of motion) that could occur at one of many locations. In such tasks, it is essential to distinguish the behavioral and neural correlates of enhanced perceptual sensitivity from those of increased bias for a particular location or choice (choice bias). However, making such a distinction is not possible with established approaches. We present a new signal detection model that decouples the behavioral effects of choice bias from those of perceptual sensitivity in multialternative (change) detection tasks. By formulating the perceptual decision in a multidimensional decision space, our model quantifies the respective contributions of bias and sensitivity to multialternative behavioral choices. With a combination of analytical and numerical approaches, we demonstrate an optimal, one-to-one mapping between model parameters and choice probabilities even for tasks involving arbitrarily large numbers of alternatives. We validated the model with published data from two ternary choice experiments: a target-detection experiment and a length-discrimination experiment. The results of this validation provided novel insights into perceptual processes (sensory noise and competitive interactions) that can accurately and parsimoniously account for observers' behavior in each task. The model will find important application in identifying and interpreting the effects of behavioral manipulations (e.g., cueing attention) or neural perturbations (e.g., stimulation or inactivation) in a variety of multialternative tasks of perception, attention, and decision-making. © 2014 ARVO.

  1. Distinguishing bias from sensitivity effects in multialternative detection tasks

    PubMed Central

    Sridharan, Devarajan; Steinmetz, Nicholas A.; Moore, Tirin; Knudsen, Eric I.

    2014-01-01

    Studies investigating the neural bases of cognitive phenomena increasingly employ multialternative detection tasks that seek to measure the ability to detect a target stimulus or changes in some target feature (e.g., orientation or direction of motion) that could occur at one of many locations. In such tasks, it is essential to distinguish the behavioral and neural correlates of enhanced perceptual sensitivity from those of increased bias for a particular location or choice (choice bias). However, making such a distinction is not possible with established approaches. We present a new signal detection model that decouples the behavioral effects of choice bias from those of perceptual sensitivity in multialternative (change) detection tasks. By formulating the perceptual decision in a multidimensional decision space, our model quantifies the respective contributions of bias and sensitivity to multialternative behavioral choices. With a combination of analytical and numerical approaches, we demonstrate an optimal, one-to-one mapping between model parameters and choice probabilities even for tasks involving arbitrarily large numbers of alternatives. We validated the model with published data from two ternary choice experiments: a target-detection experiment and a length-discrimination experiment. The results of this validation provided novel insights into perceptual processes (sensory noise and competitive interactions) that can accurately and parsimoniously account for observers' behavior in each task. The model will find important application in identifying and interpreting the effects of behavioral manipulations (e.g., cueing attention) or neural perturbations (e.g., stimulation or inactivation) in a variety of multialternative tasks of perception, attention, and decision-making. PMID:25146574

  2. Neural signatures of experience-based improvements in deterministic decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Tremel, Joshua J.; Laurent, Patryk A.; Wolk, David A.; Wheeler, Mark E.; Fiez, Julie A.

    2016-01-01

    Feedback about our choices is a crucial part of how we gather information and learn from our environment. It provides key information about decision experiences that can be used to optimize future choices. However, our understanding of the processes through which feedback translates into improved decision-making is lacking. Using neuroimaging (fMRI) and cognitive models of decision-making and learning, we examined the influence of feedback on multiple aspects of decision processes across learning. Subjects learned correct choices to a set of 50 word pairs across eight repetitions of a concurrent discrimination task. Behavioral measures were then analyzed with both a drift-diffusion model and a reinforcement learning model. Parameter values from each were then used as fMRI regressors to identify regions whose activity fluctuates with specific cognitive processes described by the models. The patterns of intersecting neural effects across models support two main inferences about the influence of feedback on decision-making. First, frontal, anterior insular, fusiform, and caudate nucleus regions behave like performance monitors, reflecting errors in performance predictions that signal the need for changes in control over decision-making. Second, temporoparietal, supplementary motor, and putamen regions behave like mnemonic storage sites, reflecting differences in learned item values that inform optimal decision choices. As information about optimal choices is accrued, these neural systems dynamically adjust, likely shifting the burden of decision processing from controlled performance monitoring to bottom-up, stimulus-driven choice selection. Collectively, the results provide a detailed perspective on the fundamental ability to use past experiences to improve future decisions. PMID:27523644

  3. Logistic Mixed Models to Investigate Implicit and Explicit Belief Tracking.

    PubMed

    Lages, Martin; Scheel, Anne

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the proposition of a two-systems Theory of Mind in adults' belief tracking. A sample of N = 45 participants predicted the choice of one of two opponent players after observing several rounds in an animated card game. Three matches of this card game were played and initial gaze direction on target and subsequent choice predictions were recorded for each belief task and participant. We conducted logistic regressions with mixed effects on the binary data and developed Bayesian logistic mixed models to infer implicit and explicit mentalizing in true belief and false belief tasks. Although logistic regressions with mixed effects predicted the data well a Bayesian logistic mixed model with latent task- and subject-specific parameters gave a better account of the data. As expected explicit choice predictions suggested a clear understanding of true and false beliefs (TB/FB). Surprisingly, however, model parameters for initial gaze direction also indicated belief tracking. We discuss why task-specific parameters for initial gaze directions are different from choice predictions yet reflect second-order perspective taking.

  4. Testing Multi-Alternative Decision Models with Non-Stationary Evidence

    PubMed Central

    Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Usher, Marius; McClelland, James L.

    2011-01-01

    Recent research has investigated the process of integrating perceptual evidence toward a decision, converging on a number of sequential sampling choice models, such as variants of race and diffusion models and the non-linear leaky competing accumulator (LCA) model. Here we study extensions of these models to multi-alternative choice, considering how well they can account for data from a psychophysical experiment in which the evidence supporting each of the alternatives changes dynamically during the trial, in a way that creates temporal correlations. We find that participants exhibit a tendency to choose an alternative whose evidence profile is temporally anti-correlated with (or dissimilar from) that of other alternatives. This advantage of the anti-correlated alternative is well accounted for in the LCA, and provides constraints that challenge several other models of multi-alternative choice. PMID:21603227

  5. Testing multi-alternative decision models with non-stationary evidence.

    PubMed

    Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Usher, Marius; McClelland, James L

    2011-01-01

    Recent research has investigated the process of integrating perceptual evidence toward a decision, converging on a number of sequential sampling choice models, such as variants of race and diffusion models and the non-linear leaky competing accumulator (LCA) model. Here we study extensions of these models to multi-alternative choice, considering how well they can account for data from a psychophysical experiment in which the evidence supporting each of the alternatives changes dynamically during the trial, in a way that creates temporal correlations. We find that participants exhibit a tendency to choose an alternative whose evidence profile is temporally anti-correlated with (or dissimilar from) that of other alternatives. This advantage of the anti-correlated alternative is well accounted for in the LCA, and provides constraints that challenge several other models of multi-alternative choice.

  6. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS.

    PubMed

    Hastings, Justine S; Shapiro, Jesse M

    2013-11-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat "gas money" as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series.

  7. Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges.

    PubMed

    Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans

    We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.

  8. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

    PubMed Central

    Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

    2015-01-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat “gas money” as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series. PMID:26937053

  9. Testing process predictions of models of risky choice: a quantitative model comparison approach

    PubMed Central

    Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Brandstätter, Eduard

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a quantitative model comparison contrasting the process predictions of two prominent views on risky choice. One view assumes a trade-off between probabilities and outcomes (or non-linear functions thereof) and the separate evaluation of risky options (expectation models). Another view assumes that risky choice is based on comparative evaluation, limited search, aspiration levels, and the forgoing of trade-offs (heuristic models). We derived quantitative process predictions for a generic expectation model and for a specific heuristic model, namely the priority heuristic (Brandstätter et al., 2006), and tested them in two experiments. The focus was on two key features of the cognitive process: acquisition frequencies (i.e., how frequently individual reasons are looked up) and direction of search (i.e., gamble-wise vs. reason-wise). In Experiment 1, the priority heuristic predicted direction of search better than the expectation model (although neither model predicted the acquisition process perfectly); acquisition frequencies, however, were inconsistent with both models. Additional analyses revealed that these frequencies were primarily a function of what Rubinstein (1988) called “similarity.” In Experiment 2, the quantitative model comparison approach showed that people seemed to rely more on the priority heuristic in difficult problems, but to make more trade-offs in easy problems. This finding suggests that risky choice may be based on a mental toolbox of strategies. PMID:24151472

  10. Choice-Based Segmentation as an Enrollment Management Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Young, Mark R.

    2002-01-01

    This article presents an approach to enrollment management based on target marketing strategies developed from a choice-based segmentation methodology. Students are classified into "switchable" or "non-switchable" segments based on their probability of selecting specific majors. A modified multinomial logit choice model is used to identify…

  11. The Effect of Including an Opt-Out Option in Discrete Choice Experiments

    PubMed Central

    Veldwijk, Jorien; Lambooij, Mattijs S.; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W.; Smit, Henriëtte A.; de Wit, G. Ardine

    2014-01-01

    Objective to determine to what extent the inclusion of an opt-out option in a DCE may have an effect on choice behaviour and therefore might influence the attribute level estimates, the relative importance of the attributes and calculated trade-offs. Methods 781 Dutch Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus patients completed a questionnaire containing nine choice tasks with an opt-out option and nice forced choice tasks. Mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the five lifestyle program related attributes that were included. Willingness to pay (WTP) values were calculated and it was tested whether results differed between respondents who answered the choice tasks with an opt-out option in the first or second part of the questionnaire. Results 21.4% of the respondents always opted out. Respondents who were given the opt-out option in the first part of the questionnaire as well as lower educated respondents significantly more often opted out. For both the forced and unforced choice model, different attributes showed significant estimates, the relative importance of the attributes was equal. However, due to differences in relative importance weights, the WTP values for the PA schedule differed significantly between both datasets. Conclusions Results show differences in opting out based on the location of the opt-out option and respondents' educational level; this resulted in small differences between the forced and unforced choice model. Since respondents seem to learn from answering forced choice tasks, a dual response design might result in higher data quality compared to offering a direct opt-out option. Future research should empirically explore how choice sets should be presented to make them as easy and less complex as possible in order to reduce the proportion of respondents that opts-out due to choice task complexity. Moreover, future research should debrief respondents to examine the reasons for choosing the opt-out alternative. PMID:25365169

  12. The effect of including an opt-out option in discrete choice experiments.

    PubMed

    Veldwijk, Jorien; Lambooij, Mattijs S; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; Smit, Henriëtte A; de Wit, G Ardine

    2014-01-01

    to determine to what extent the inclusion of an opt-out option in a DCE may have an effect on choice behaviour and therefore might influence the attribute level estimates, the relative importance of the attributes and calculated trade-offs. 781 Dutch Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus patients completed a questionnaire containing nine choice tasks with an opt-out option and nice forced choice tasks. Mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the five lifestyle program related attributes that were included. Willingness to pay (WTP) values were calculated and it was tested whether results differed between respondents who answered the choice tasks with an opt-out option in the first or second part of the questionnaire. 21.4% of the respondents always opted out. Respondents who were given the opt-out option in the first part of the questionnaire as well as lower educated respondents significantly more often opted out. For both the forced and unforced choice model, different attributes showed significant estimates, the relative importance of the attributes was equal. However, due to differences in relative importance weights, the WTP values for the PA schedule differed significantly between both datasets. Results show differences in opting out based on the location of the opt-out option and respondents' educational level; this resulted in small differences between the forced and unforced choice model. Since respondents seem to learn from answering forced choice tasks, a dual response design might result in higher data quality compared to offering a direct opt-out option. Future research should empirically explore how choice sets should be presented to make them as easy and less complex as possible in order to reduce the proportion of respondents that opts-out due to choice task complexity. Moreover, future research should debrief respondents to examine the reasons for choosing the opt-out alternative.

  13. An empirical comparison of methods for analyzing correlated data from a discrete choice survey to elicit patient preference for colorectal cancer screening

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is a preference survey which asks participants to make a choice among product portfolios comparing the key product characteristics by performing several choice tasks. Analyzing DCE data needs to account for within-participant correlation because choices from the same participant are likely to be similar. In this study, we empirically compared some commonly-used statistical methods for analyzing DCE data while accounting for within-participant correlation based on a survey of patient preference for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening tests conducted in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada in 2002. Methods A two-stage DCE design was used to investigate the impact of six attributes on participants' preferences for CRC screening test and willingness to undertake the test. We compared six models for clustered binary outcomes (logistic and probit regressions using cluster-robust standard error (SE), random-effects and generalized estimating equation approaches) and three models for clustered nominal outcomes (multinomial logistic and probit regressions with cluster-robust SE and random-effects multinomial logistic model). We also fitted a bivariate probit model with cluster-robust SE treating the choices from two stages as two correlated binary outcomes. The rank of relative importance between attributes and the estimates of β coefficient within attributes were used to assess the model robustness. Results In total 468 participants with each completing 10 choices were analyzed. Similar results were reported for the rank of relative importance and β coefficients across models for stage-one data on evaluating participants' preferences for the test. The six attributes ranked from high to low as follows: cost, specificity, process, sensitivity, preparation and pain. However, the results differed across models for stage-two data on evaluating participants' willingness to undertake the tests. Little within-patient correlation (ICC ≈ 0) was found in stage-one data, but substantial within-patient correlation existed (ICC = 0.659) in stage-two data. Conclusions When small clustering effect presented in DCE data, results remained robust across statistical models. However, results varied when larger clustering effect presented. Therefore, it is important to assess the robustness of the estimates via sensitivity analysis using different models for analyzing clustered data from DCE studies. PMID:22348526

  14. Minimizing effects of methodological decisions on interpretation and prediction in species distribution studies: An example with background selection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Talbert, Marian; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Brown, Cynthia; Kumar, Sunil; Manier, Daniel; Talbert, Colin; Holcombe, Tracy R.

    2017-01-01

    Evaluating the conditions where a species can persist is an important question in ecology both to understand tolerances of organisms and to predict distributions across landscapes. Presence data combined with background or pseudo-absence locations are commonly used with species distribution modeling to develop these relationships. However, there is not a standard method to generate background or pseudo-absence locations, and method choice affects model outcomes. We evaluated combinations of both model algorithms (simple and complex generalized linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, Maxent, boosted regression trees, and random forest) and background methods (random, minimum convex polygon, and continuous and binary kernel density estimator (KDE)) to assess the sensitivity of model outcomes to choices made. We evaluated six questions related to model results, including five beyond the common comparison of model accuracy assessment metrics (biological interpretability of response curves, cross-validation robustness, independent data accuracy and robustness, and prediction consistency). For our case study with cheatgrass in the western US, random forest was least sensitive to background choice and the binary KDE method was least sensitive to model algorithm choice. While this outcome may not hold for other locations or species, the methods we used can be implemented to help determine appropriate methodologies for particular research questions.

  15. Acquisition of choice in concurrent chains: Assessing the cumulative decision model.

    PubMed

    Grace, Randolph C

    2016-05-01

    Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Factors Influencing Changes in Eating Patterns Among Hong Kong Young Adults Transitioning to Tertiary Education.

    PubMed

    Kwok, Sin Tung; Capra, Sandra; Leveritt, Michael

    2016-05-01

    Transitioning to tertiary education is a significant life course event that has the potential to influence lifelong eating patterns. This study used a theoretic model developed from a life course perspective to examine factors influencing the change of food choices among 31 young adults in Hong Kong after they moved on to tertiary education. Qualitative analysis of transcripts based on the constant comparative method revealed that present life course experiences, especially increased autonomy, and social-environmental factors strongly influenced young adults' present food choices. A model was developed from life course theory and social-ecological theory to reflect the factors that led to change of food choices among participants. The model provides unique insights on food choices of the future adult population. It could also be used as a reference for the development of nutrition education interventions targeting tertiary students as they experience increased autonomy. In conclusion, food choices of young adults on transitioning to tertiary education are strongly influenced by increased autonomy and change of social and environmental factors. © 2016 APJPH.

  17. Validating a behavioral economic approach to assess food demand: effects of body mass index, dietary restraint, and impulsivity.

    PubMed

    Reslan, Summar; Saules, Karen K; Greenwald, Mark K

    2012-10-01

    Behavioral economic theory is a useful framework for analyzing factors influencing choice, but the majority of human behavioral economic research has focused on drug choice. The behavioral economic choice paradigm may also be valuable for understanding food-maintained behavior. Our primary objective was two-fold: (1) Validate a human laboratory model of food-appetitive behavior, and (2) Assess the contribution of individual level factors that may differentially impact food choice behavior. Two studies were conducted. In Study 1, female subjects (N=17) participated in two consecutive food choice experimental sessions, whereas in Study 2, female subjects (N=21) participated in one concurrent food choice experimental session. During consecutive choice sessions (Study 1), demand for the more palatable food (i.e., high-sugar/high-fat) was more inelastic than the less palatable (i.e., low-sugar/low-fat) option. During concurrent choice sessions, demand for the more palatable food (i.e., high-sugar/high-fat) was more inelastic for restrained vs. unrestrained eaters, and for those who were overweight vs. normal weight. Demand for both palatable and less palatable choices was more elastic for high-impulsive vs. low-impulsive subjects. These findings suggest that the behavioral economic framework can be used successfully to develop a human laboratory model of food-appetitive behavior. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. From creatures of habit to goal-directed learners: Tracking the developmental emergence of model-based reinforcement learning

    PubMed Central

    Decker, Johannes H.; Otto, A. Ross; Daw, Nathaniel D.; Hartley, Catherine A.

    2016-01-01

    Theoretical models distinguish two decision-making strategies that have been formalized in reinforcement-learning theory. A model-based strategy leverages a cognitive model of potential actions and their consequences to make goal-directed choices, whereas a model-free strategy evaluates actions based solely on their reward history. Research in adults has begun to elucidate the psychological mechanisms and neural substrates underlying these learning processes and factors that influence their relative recruitment. However, the developmental trajectory of these evaluative strategies has not been well characterized. In this study, children, adolescents, and adults, performed a sequential reinforcement-learning task that enables estimation of model-based and model-free contributions to choice. Whereas a model-free strategy was evident in choice behavior across all age groups, evidence of a model-based strategy only emerged during adolescence and continued to increase into adulthood. These results suggest that recruitment of model-based valuation systems represents a critical cognitive component underlying the gradual maturation of goal-directed behavior. PMID:27084852

  19. Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

    2011-06-01

    Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

  20. Attraction Effect in Risky Choice Can Be Explained by Subjective Distance Between Choice Alternatives.

    PubMed

    Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2017-08-21

    Individuals make decisions under risk throughout daily life. Standard models of economic decision making typically assume that people evaluate choice options independently. There is, however, substantial evidence showing that this independence assumption is frequently violated in decision making without risk. The present study extends these findings to the domain of decision making under risk. To explain the independence violations, we adapted a sequential sampling model, namely Multialternative Decision Field Theory (MDFT), to decision making under risk and showed how this model can account for the observed preference shifts. MDFT not only better predicts choices compared with the standard Expected Utility Theory, but it also explains individual differences in the size of the observed context effect. Evidence in favor of the chosen option, as predicted by MDFT, was positively correlated with brain activity in the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC) and negatively correlated with brain activity in the anterior insula (aINS). From a neuroscience perspective, the results of the present study show that specific brain regions, such as the mOFC and aINS, not only code the value or risk of a single choice option but also code the evidence in favor of the best option compared with other available choice options.

  1. Factors modulating social influence on spatial choice in rats.

    PubMed

    Bisbing, Teagan A; Saxon, Marie; Sayde, Justin M; Brown, Michael F

    2015-07-01

    Three experiments examined the conditions under which the spatial choices of rats searching for food are influenced by the choices made by other rats. Model rats learned a consistent set of baited locations in a 5 × 5 matrix of locations, some of which contained food. In Experiment 1, subject rats could determine the baited locations after choosing 1 location because all of the baited locations were on the same side of the matrix during each trial (the baited side varied over trials). Under these conditions, the social cues provided by the model rats had little or no effect on the choices made by the subject rats. The lack of social influence on choices occurred despite a simultaneous social influence on rats' location in the testing arena (Experiment 2). When the outcome of the subject rats' own choices provided no information about the positions of other baited locations, on the other hand, social cues strongly controlled spatial choices (Experiment 3). These results indicate that social information about the location of food influences spatial choices only when those cues provide valid information that is not redundant with the information provided by other cues. This suggests that social information is learned about, processed, and controls behavior via the same mechanisms as other kinds of stimuli. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Patterns of Reinforcement and the Essential Value of Brands: II. Evaluation of a Model of Consumer Choice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yan, Ji; Foxall, Gordon R.; Doyle, John R.

    2012-01-01

    We employ a behavioral-economic equation put forward by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) to explain human consumption behavior among substitutable food brands, applying a consumer-choice model--the behavioral perspective model (BPM; Foxall, 1990/2004, 2005). In this study, we apply the behavioral-economic equation to human economic consumption data. We…

  3. Preference as a Function of Active Interresponse Times: A Test of the Active Time Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Misak, Paul; Cleaveland, J. Mark

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe a test of the active time model for concurrent variable interval (VI) choice. The active time model (ATM) suggests that the time since the most recent response is one of the variables controlling choice in concurrent VI VI schedules of reinforcement. In our experiment, pigeons were trained in a multiple concurrent…

  4. Using a Systematic Conceptual Model for a Process Evaluation of a Middle School Obesity Risk-Reduction Nutrition Curriculum Intervention: "Choice, Control & Change"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Heewon; Contento, Isobel R.; Koch, Pamela

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To use and review a conceptual model of process evaluation and to examine the implementation of a nutrition education curriculum, "Choice, Control & Change", designed to promote dietary and physical activity behaviors that reduce obesity risk. Design: A process evaluation study based on a systematic conceptual model. Setting: Five…

  5. Food and energy choices for India: a programming model with partial endogenous energy requirements.

    PubMed

    Parikh, K S; Srinivasan, T N

    1980-09-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model for all matter-energy processing subsystems at the level of the society, specifically India. It explores India's choices in the food and energy sectors over the coming decades. Alternative land intensive, irrigation energy intensive, and fertilizer intensive techniques of food production are identified using a nonlinear programming model. The land saved is devoted to growing firewood. The optimum combination of railway (steam, diesel, and electric traction) and road (automobiles, diesel trucks, and diesel and gasoline buses) transport is determined. For the oil sector, two alternative sources of supply of crude oil and petroleum products are included, namely, domestic production and imports. The optimum choice is determined through a linear programming model. While the model is basically a static one, designed to determine the optimal choice for the target year of 2000-2001, certain intertemporal detail is incorporated for electricity generation. The model minimizes the costs of meeting the needs for food, transport in terms of passenger kilometers and goods per ton per kilometer, energy needs for domestic cooking and lighting, and the energy needs of the rest of the economy.

  6. The role of consensus and culture in children's imitation of inefficient actions.

    PubMed

    DiYanni, Cara J; Corriveau, Kathleen H; Kurkul, Katelyn; Nasrini, Jad; Nini, Deniela

    2015-09-01

    A significant body of work has demonstrated children's imitative abilities when learning novel actions. Although some research has examined the role of cultural background in children's imitation of inefficient actions, to our knowledge no research has explored how culture and conformity interact when engaging in imitation. In Study 1, 87 Caucasian American and Chinese American preschoolers were presented with either one model or three models performing an inefficient action. Whereas there were no cultural differences in imitation in the Single Model condition, Chinese Americans were significantly more likely to copy the model's preference for an inefficient tool in the Consensus condition. Children's tool choice was associated with their justification for their choice as well as their memory for the model's action. Study 2 explored the impact of immigration status on the cultural differences in children's tool choice by including 16 first-generation Caucasian American children. When comparing the findings with the rates from Study 1, both groups of Caucasian American preschoolers imitated at rates significantly lower than the Chinese American preschoolers. We suggest that the tool choices of Caucasian American children relate to a tendency to engage in a perceptually driven mode of learning, whereas the choices of the Chinese American children reflect a greater likelihood to use a socially driven mode. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Determinants of choice of delivery place: Testing rational choice theory and habitus theory.

    PubMed

    Broda, Anja; Krüger, Juliane; Schinke, Stephanie; Weber, Andreas

    2018-05-07

    The current study uses two antipodal social science theories, the rational choice theory and the habitus theory, and applies these to describe how women choose between intraclinical (i.e., hospital-run birth clinics) and extraclinical (i.e., midwife-led birth centres or home births) delivery places. Data were collected in a cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey among 189 women. A list of 22 determinants, conceptualized to capture the two theoretical concepts, were rated on a 7-point Likert scale with 1 = unimportant to 7 = very important. The analytic method was structural equation modelling. A model was built, in which the rational choice theory and the habitus theory as latent variables predicted the choice of delivery place. With regards to the choice of delivery place, 89.3% of the women wanted an intraclinical and 10.7% an extraclinical delivery place at the time of their last child's birth. Significant differences between women with a choice of an intraclinical or extraclinical delivery place were found for 14 of the 22 determinants. In the structural equation model, rational choice theory determinants predicted a choice of intraclinical delivery and habitus theory determinants predicted a choice of extraclinical delivery. The two theories had diametrically opposed effects on the choice of delivery place. Women are more likely to decide on intraclinical delivery when arguments such as high medical standards, positive evaluations, or good advanced information are rated important. In contrast, women are more likely to decide on extraclinical delivery when factors such as family atmosphere during birth, friendliness of health care professionals, or consideration of the woman's interests are deemed important. A practical implication of our study is that intraclinical deliveries may be promoted by providing comprehensive information, data and facts on various delivery-related issues, while extraclinical deliveries may be fostered by healthcare professionals tailoring personal or social beliefs, attitudes and opinions. Our study advocates that legislation and policy- and decision-makers should support different delivery place options in order to accommodate the choices and preferences of different women. The study demonstrates the usefulness of theory for describing and explaining a complex decision-making process, here the choice of delivery place. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Comparing the Nutritional Impact of Dietary Strategies to Reduce Discretionary Choice Intake in the Australian Adult Population: A Simulation Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Grieger, Jessica A.; Johnson, Brittany J.; Wycherley, Thomas P.; Golley, Rebecca K.

    2017-01-01

    Dietary strategies to reduce discretionary choice intake are commonly utilized in practice, but evidence on their relative efficacy is lacking. The aim was to compare the potential impact on nutritional intake of three strategies to reducing discretionary choices intake in the Australian adult (19–90 years) population. Dietary simulation modelling using data from the National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey 2011–2012 was conducted (n = 9341; one 24 h dietary recall). Strategies modelled were: moderation (reduce discretionary choices by 50%, with 0%, 25% or 75% energy compensation); substitution (replace 50% of discretionary choices with core choices); reformulation (replace 50% SFA with unsaturated fats, reduce added sugars by 25%, and reduce sodium by 20%). Compared to the base case (observed) intake, modelled intakes in the moderation scenario showed: −17.3% lower energy (sensitivity analyses, 25% energy compensation −14.2%; 75% energy compensation −8.0%), −20.9% lower SFA (−17.4%; −10.5%), −43.3% lower added sugars (−41.1%; −36.7%) and 17.7% lower sodium (−14.3%; −7.5%). Substitution with a range of core items, or with fruits, vegetables and core beverages only, resulted in similar changes in energy intake (−13.5% and −15.4%), SFA (−17.7% and −20.1%), added sugars (−42.6% and −43%) and sodium (−13.7% and −16.5%), respectively. Reformulating discretionary choices had minimal impact on reducing energy intake but reduced SFA (−10.3% to −30.9%), added sugars (−9.3% to −52.9%), and alcohol (−25.0% to −49.9%) and sodium (−3.3% to −13.2%). The substitution and reformulation scenarios minimized negative changes in fiber, protein and micronutrient intakes. While each strategy has strengths and limitations, substitution of discretionary choices with core foods and beverages may optimize the nutritional impact. PMID:28467387

  9. College Choice and Documented Chinese Immigrant Community College Students in Massachusetts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luie, Siu Ming

    2010-01-01

    College-choice studies have long been conducted to help colleges improve their recruitment strategies (Chapman, 1981; Hossler & Gallagher, 1987; Jackson, 1982; Litten, 1982). The dominant college-choice models and studies have, however, focused solely on traditional aged students seeking to enroll in four-year colleges/universities upon high…

  10. A Feminist Critique of Rational-Choice Theories: Implications for Sociology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    England, Paula

    1989-01-01

    Provides a feminist critique of rational-choice theory and the interdisciplinary feminist theories of sociology. Applies the separative model of self to four assumptions of the neoclassical economics version of rational-choice theory. Uses research on marital power to illustrate how removing distorting assumptions can help illuminate sociological…

  11. Preference Reversal: A New Look at an Old Problem

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Shu

    2006-01-01

    A generalized "weak dominance" approach is used to test the documented preference reversal (PR) phenomenon. This approach simply models risky choice behavior in PR as a choice between the best possible outcomes or a choice between the worst possible outcomes by equating smaller paired outcome difference between bets. The preference…

  12. Racial Labor Market Gaps: The Role of Abilities and Schooling Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Urzua, Sergio

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the relationship between abilities, schooling choices, and black-white differentials in labor market outcomes. The analysis is based on a model of endogenous schooling choices. Agents' schooling decisions are based on expected future earnings, family background, and unobserved abilities. Earnings are also determined by…

  13. Education by Choice: The Case for Family Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coons, John E.; Sugarman, Stephen D.

    This book examines the philosophical issues, possible variations, and implementation of voucher plans of educational choice. The voucher system proposed here (the Quality Choice Model) is based on the assumption that a voucher system can ensure the equal provision of educational resources to children regardless of residential mobility or ability…

  14. Proving the Viability of a School Choice Voucher. Policy Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haller, Scott

    2015-01-01

    A recent Pioneer Institute report written by Ken Ardon and Cara Stilling Candal, "Modeling Urban Scholarship Vouchers in Massachusetts," explores the viability of a school choice voucher program in the Commonwealth. Nationally, school choice has been shown to improve parent satisfaction and student achievement, reduce racial segregation,…

  15. What counts as a choice? U.S. Americans are more likely than Indians to construe actions as choices.

    PubMed

    Savani, Krishna; Markus, Hazel Rose; Naidu, N V R; Kumar, Satishchandra; Berlia, Neha

    2010-03-01

    People everywhere select among multiple alternatives, but are they always making choices? In five studies, we found that people in U.S. American contexts, where the disjoint model of agency is prevalent, are more likely than those in Indian contexts to construe their own and other individuals' behaviors as choices, to construe ongoing behaviors and behaviors recalled from memory as choices, to construe naturally occurring and experimentally controlled behaviors as choices, to construe mundane and important actions as choices, and to construe personal and interpersonal actions as choices. Indians showed a greater tendency to construe actions as choices when these actions involved responding to other people than when they did not. These findings show that whether people construe actions as choices is significantly shaped by sociocultural systems of meanings and practices. Together, they suggest that the positive consequences associated with maximizing the availability of personal choice may not be universal and instead may be limited to North American contexts.

  16. Social choice for one: On the rationality of intertemporal decisions.

    PubMed

    Paglieri, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    When faced with an intertemporal choice between a smaller short-term reward and a larger long-term prize, is opting for the latter always indicative of delay tolerance? And is delay tolerance always to be regarded as a manifestation of self-control, and thus as a rational solution to intertemporal dilemmas? I argue in favor of a negative answer to both questions, based on evidence collected in the delay discounting literature. This highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of rationality in intertemporal choice, to capture also situations in which waiting is not the optimal strategy. This paper suggests that such an understanding is fostered by adopting social choice theory as a promising framework to model intertemporal decision making. Some preliminary results of this approach are discussed, and its potential is compared with a much more studied formal model for intertemporal choice, i.e. game theory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Are We Rational or Not? The Exploration of Voter Choices during the 2016 Presidential and Legislative Elections in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Lee, I-Ching; Chen, Eva E.; Yen, Nai-Shing; Tsai, Chia-Hung; Cheng, Hsu-Po

    2017-01-01

    The decisions voters make—and whether those decisions are rational—have profound implications on the functionality of a democratic society. In this study, we delineated two criteria in evaluating voter rationality and weigh evidence of voter rationality versus irrationality. Furthermore, we compared models in two different elections in Taiwan to explore the reasons behind the irrational choices voters can make. Survey questions and an implicit association test (IAT) were administered prior to both elections among 197 voters in Taipei. These voters then reported their actual votes post-election. Model testing suggests that voters often are rational, but are more likely to make irrational choices in more important elections. Our findings indicate that voters generally aim to be diligent and to optimize their choices, even if they make less rational choices in the end. Further implications regarding elections and human rationality are discussed. PMID:29075215

  18. Obligatory Effort [Hishtadlut] as an Explanatory Model: A Critique of Reproductive Choice and Control.

    PubMed

    Teman, Elly; Ivry, Tsipy; Goren, Heela

    2016-06-01

    Studies on reproductive technologies often examine women's reproductive lives in terms of choice and control. Drawing on 48 accounts of procreative experiences of religiously devout Jewish women in Israel and the US, we examine their attitudes, understandings and experiences of pregnancy, reproductive technologies and prenatal testing. We suggest that the concept of hishtadlut-"obligatory effort"-works as an explanatory model that organizes Haredi women's reproductive careers and their negotiations of reproductive technologies. As an elastic category with negotiable and dynamic boundaries, hishtadlut gives ultra-orthodox Jewish women room for effort without the assumption of control; it allows them to exercise discretion in relation to medical issues without framing their efforts in terms of individual choice. Haredi women hold themselves responsible for making their obligatory effort and not for pregnancy outcomes. We suggest that an alternative paradigm to autonomous choice and control emerges from cosmological orders where reproductive duties constitute "obligatory choices."

  19. Counterfactual simulations applied to SHRP2 crashes: The effect of driver behavior models on safety benefit estimations of intelligent safety systems.

    PubMed

    Bärgman, Jonas; Boda, Christian-Nils; Dozza, Marco

    2017-05-01

    As the development and deployment of in-vehicle intelligent safety systems (ISS) for crash avoidance and mitigation have rapidly increased in the last decades, the need to evaluate their prospective safety benefits before introduction has never been higher. Counterfactual simulations using relevant mathematical models (for vehicle dynamics, sensors, the environment, ISS algorithms, and models of driver behavior) have been identified as having high potential. However, although most of these models are relatively mature, models of driver behavior in the critical seconds before a crash are still relatively immature. There are also large conceptual differences between different driver models. The objective of this paper is, firstly, to demonstrate the importance of the choice of driver model when counterfactual simulations are used to evaluate two ISS: Forward collision warning (FCW), and autonomous emergency braking (AEB). Secondly, the paper demonstrates how counterfactual simulations can be used to perform sensitivity analyses on parameter settings, both for driver behavior and ISS algorithms. Finally, the paper evaluates the effect of the choice of glance distribution in the driver behavior model on the safety benefit estimation. The paper uses pre-crash kinematics and driver behavior from 34 rear-end crashes from the SHRP2 naturalistic driving study for the demonstrations. The results for FCW show a large difference in the percent of avoided crashes between conceptually different models of driver behavior, while differences were small for conceptually similar models. As expected, the choice of model of driver behavior did not affect AEB benefit much. Based on our results, researchers and others who aim to evaluate ISS with the driver in the loop through counterfactual simulations should be sure to make deliberate and well-grounded choices of driver models: the choice of model matters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Valuing Non-market Benefits of Rehabilitation of Hydrologic Cycle Improvements in the Anyangcheon Watershed: Using Mixed Logit Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, J.; Kong, K.

    2010-12-01

    This research the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with the Anyangcheon watershed improvements in Rep. of Korea. The Anyangcheon watershed has suffered from streamflow depletion and poor stream quality, which often negatively affect instream and near-stream ecologic integrity, as well as water supply. Such distortions in the hydrologic cycle mainly result from rapid increase of impermeable area due to urbanization, decreases of baseflow runoff due to groundwater pumping, and reduced precipitation inputs driven by climate forcing. As well, combined sewer overflows and increase of non-point source pollution from urban regions decrease water quality. The appeal of choice experiments (CE) in economic analysis is that it is based on random utility theory (McFadden, 1974; Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985). In contrast to contingent valuation method (CVM), which asks people to choose between a base case and a specific alternative, CE asks people to choice between cases that are described by attributes. The attributes of this study were selected from hydrologic vulnerability components that represent flood damage possibility, instreamflow depletion, water quality deterioration, form of the watershed and tax. Their levels were divided into three grades include status quo. Two grades represented the ideal conditions. These scenarios were constructed from a 35 orthogonal main effect design. This design resulted in twenty-seven choice sets. The design had nine different choice scenarios presented to each respondent. The most popular choice models in use are the conditional logit (CNL). This model provides closed-form choice probability calculation. The shortcoming of CNL comes from irrelevant alternatives (IIA). In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) is applied to allow the coefficient’s variation for random taste heterogeneity in the population. The mixed logit model(with normal distributions for the attributes) fit the data best, indication that allowing for both heterogeneous preferences across households and correlation between repeated choices may represent actual choice behaviors best of all the estimated models. The annual benefits to improve of the Anyancheon watershed for 1% improvement of each attribute was 406.7 billion Won(0.34 billion USD). This study is expected to contribute to the decision-making process for policy-makers by providing useful methodological framework and quantitative information related to watershed improvement projects.Table 1. Estimated Results of Conditional Logit and Mixed Logit Model 1) t-values are shown in brackets

  1. Computational mate choice: theory and empirical evidence.

    PubMed

    Castellano, Sergio; Cadeddu, Giorgia; Cermelli, Paolo

    2012-06-01

    The present review is based on the thesis that mate choice results from information-processing mechanisms governed by computational rules and that, to understand how females choose their mates, we should identify which are the sources of information and how they are used to make decisions. We describe mate choice as a three-step computational process and for each step we present theories and review empirical evidence. The first step is a perceptual process. It describes the acquisition of evidence, that is, how females use multiple cues and signals to assign an attractiveness value to prospective mates (the preference function hypothesis). The second step is a decisional process. It describes the construction of the decision variable (DV), which integrates evidence (private information by direct assessment), priors (public information), and value (perceived utility) of prospective mates into a quantity that is used by a decision rule (DR) to produce a choice. We make the assumption that females are optimal Bayesian decision makers and we derive a formal model of DV that can explain the effects of preference functions, mate copying, social context, and females' state and condition on the patterns of mate choice. The third step of mating decision is a deliberative process that depends on the DRs. We identify two main categories of DRs (absolute and comparative rules), and review the normative models of mate sampling tactics associated to them. We highlight the limits of the normative approach and present a class of computational models (sequential-sampling models) that are based on the assumption that DVs accumulate noisy evidence over time until a decision threshold is reached. These models force us to rethink the dichotomy between comparative and absolute decision rules, between discrimination and recognition, and even between rational and irrational choice. Since they have a robust biological basis, we think they may represent a useful theoretical tool for behavioural ecologist interested in integrating proximate and ultimate causes of mate choice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Let your preference be your guide? Preferences and choices are more tightly linked for North Americans than for Indians.

    PubMed

    Savani, Krishna; Markus, Hazel Rose; Conner, Alana L

    2008-10-01

    Using experimental paradigms from economics and social psychology, the authors examined the cross-cultural applicability of 3 widely held assumptions about preference and choice: People (a) recruit or construct preferences to make choices; (b) choose according to their preferences; and (c) are motivated to express their preferences in their choices. In 6 studies, they compared how middle-class North American and Indian participants choose among consumer products. Participants in both contexts construct nonrandom preferences at similar speeds. Those in Indian contexts, however, are slower to make choices, less likely to choose according to their personal preferences, and less motivated to express their preferences in their choices. The authors infer that the strong link between preferences and choices observed among North Americans is not a universal feature of human nature. Instead, this link reflects the disjoint model of agency, which prescribes that people should choose freely on the basis of their preferences. In contrast, Indian contexts reflect and promote a conjoint model of agency, according to which agency is responsive to the desires and expectations of important others and may require restraining one's preferences.

  3. Predicting hospital choice for rural Medicare beneficiaries: the role of severity of illness.

    PubMed Central

    Adams, E K; Houchens, R; Wright, G E; Robbins, J

    1991-01-01

    Previous research has confirmed that desirable hospital attributes as well as increased distance, or travel time, have an impact on hospital choice. These studies have become increasingly sophisticated in modeling choice. This study adds to the existing literature by estimating the effect of both hospital and individual characteristics on hospital choice, using McFadden's conditional logit model. Some patient characteristics have not previously been accounted for in this type of analysis. In particular, the effect of a patient's complexity of illness (as measured by Disease Staging) on the choice of hospital is taken into account. The data consist of over 12,000 Medicare discharges in three overlapping rural market areas during 1986. The hospital choice set was aggregated into seven groups of urban and rural hospitals. Results indicate that rural Medicare beneficiaries tend to choose hospitals with a large scope of service and with teaching activity over those with a lower scope of service and no teaching activity, holding other factors constant. Distance is a deterrent to hospital choice, especially for older Medicare beneficiaries. The more complex cases tend to choose larger urban and rural hospitals over small rural hospitals more often than less complex cases do. PMID:1743970

  4. Cognitive Diagnostic Models for Tests with Multiple-Choice and Constructed-Response Items

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuo, Bor-Chen; Chen, Chun-Hua; Yang, Chih-Wei; Mok, Magdalena Mo Ching

    2016-01-01

    Traditionally, teachers evaluate students' abilities via their total test scores. Recently, cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) have begun to provide information about the presence or absence of students' skills or misconceptions. Nevertheless, CDMs are typically applied to tests with multiple-choice (MC) items, which provide less diagnostic…

  5. Sensitivity of WRF Regional Climate Simulations to Choice of Land Use Dataset

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of this study is to assess the sensitivity of regional climate simulations run with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the choice of datasets representing land use and land cover (LULC). Within a regional climate modeling application, an accurate repres...

  6. Distance Education Strategy: Mental Models and Strategic Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adams, John C.; Seagren, Alan T.

    2004-01-01

    What issues do distance education (DE) leaders believe will influence the future of DE? What are their colleges' DE strategies? This qualitative study compares DE strategic thinking and strategic choices at three community colleges. Two propositions are investigated: (1) each college's DE leaders use common strategic mental models (ways of…

  7. Using Laptop Computers in Class: A Student Motivation Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houle, Philip A.; Reed, Diana; Vaughan, Amy Grace; Clayton, Suzanne R.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the reasons why students choose to take laptop computers into college classes. The model involved the individual student choice involving opportunity, ability and motivation. The resulting model demonstrated how some (primary) factors, such as effective learning, directly impact the laptop usage choice, and other factors…

  8. Autoshaped choice in artificial neural networks: implications for behavioral economics and neuroeconomics.

    PubMed

    Burgos, José E; García-Leal, Óscar

    2015-05-01

    An existing neural network model of conditioning was used to simulate autoshaped choice. In this phenomenon, pigeons first receive an autoshaping procedure with two keylight stimuli X and Y separately paired with food in a forward-delay manner, intermittently for X and continuously for Y. Then pigeons receive unreinforced choice test trials of X and Y concurrently present. Most pigeons choose Y. This preference for a more valuable response alternative is a form of economic behavior that makes the phenomenon relevant to behavioral economics. The phenomenon also suggests a role for Pavlovian contingencies in economic behavior. The model used, in contrast to others, predicts autoshaping and automaintenance, so it is uniquely positioned to predict autoshaped choice. The model also contemplates neural substrates of economic behavior in neuroeconomics, such as dopaminergic and hippocampal systems. A feedforward neural network architecture was designed to simulate a neuroanatomical differentiation between two environment-behavior relations X-R1 and Y-R2, [corrected] where R1 and R2 denote two different emitted responses (not unconditionally elicited by the reward). Networks with this architecture received a training protocol that simulated an autoshaped-choice procedure. Most networks simulated the phenomenon. Implications for behavioral economics and neuroeconomics, limitations, and the issue of model appraisal are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. GROWTH AND INEQUALITY: MODEL EVALUATION BASED ON AN ESTIMATION-CALIBRATION STRATEGY

    PubMed Central

    Jeong, Hyeok; Townsend, Robert

    2010-01-01

    This paper evaluates two well-known models of growth with inequality that have explicit micro underpinnings related to household choice. With incomplete markets or transactions costs, wealth can constrain investment in business and the choice of occupation and also constrain the timing of entry into the formal financial sector. Using the Thai Socio-Economic Survey (SES), we estimate the distribution of wealth and the key parameters that best fit cross-sectional data on household choices and wealth. We then simulate the model economies for two decades at the estimated initial wealth distribution and analyze whether the model economies at those micro-fit parameter estimates can explain the observed macro and sectoral aspects of income growth and inequality change. Both models capture important features of Thai reality. Anomalies and comparisons across the two distinct models yield specific suggestions for improved research on the micro foundations of growth and inequality. PMID:20448833

  10. A decision network account of reasoning about other people's choices

    PubMed Central

    Jern, Alan; Kemp, Charles

    2015-01-01

    The ability to predict and reason about other people's choices is fundamental to social interaction. We propose that people reason about other people's choices using mental models that are similar to decision networks. Decision networks are extensions of Bayesian networks that incorporate the idea that choices are made in order to achieve goals. In our first experiment, we explore how people predict the choices of others. Our remaining three experiments explore how people infer the goals and knowledge of others by observing the choices that they make. We show that decision networks account for our data better than alternative computational accounts that do not incorporate the notion of goal-directed choice or that do not rely on probabilistic inference. PMID:26010559

  11. Adding small differences can increase similarity and choice.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jongmin; Novemsky, Nathan; Dhar, Ravi

    2013-02-01

    Similarity plays a critical role in many judgments and choices. Traditional models of similarity posit that increasing the number of differences between objects cannot increase judged similarity between them. In contrast to these previous models, the present research shows that introducing a small difference in an attribute that previously was identical across objects can increase perceived similarity between those objects. We propose an explanation based on the idea that small differences draw more attention than identical attributes do and that people's perceptions of similarity involve averaging attributes that are salient. We provide evidence that introducing small differences between objects increases perceived similarity. We also show that an increase in similarity decreases the difficulty of choice and the likelihood that a choice will be deferred.

  12. Simulated Models Suggest That Price per Calorie Is the Dominant Price Metric That Low-Income Individuals Use for Food Decision Making123

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Background: The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. Objective: We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. Methods: With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. Results: The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Conclusions: Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. PMID:27655757

  13. Simulated Models Suggest That Price per Calorie Is the Dominant Price Metric That Low-Income Individuals Use for Food Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Igusa, Takeru; Jones-Smith, Jessica

    2016-11-01

    The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  14. Estimating preferences for local public services using migration data.

    PubMed

    Dahlberg, Matz; Eklöf, Matias; Fredriksson, Peter; Jofre-Monseny, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Using Swedish micro data, the paper examines the impact of local public services on community choice. The choice of community is modelled as a choice between a discrete set of alternatives. It is found that, given taxes, high spending on child care attracts migrants. Less conclusive results are obtained with respect to the role of spending on education and elderly care. High local taxes deter migrants. Relaxing the independence of the irrelevant alternatives assumption, by estimating a mixed logit model, has a significant impact on the results.

  15. About the choice of Gibbs' potential for modelling of FCC ↔ HCP transformation in FeMnSi-based shape memory alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evard, Margarita E.; Volkov, Aleksandr E.; Belyaev, Fedor S.; Ignatova, Anna D.

    2018-05-01

    The choice of Gibbs' potential for microstructural modeling of FCC ↔ HCP martensitic transformation in FeMn-based shape memory alloys is discussed. Threefold symmetry of the HCP phase is taken into account on specifying internal variables characterizing volume fractions of martensite variants. Constraints imposed on model constants by thermodynamic equilibrium conditions are formulated.

  16. Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Stephens, Thomas S.; Levinson, Rebecca S.; Brooker, Aaron

    Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception ofmore » ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible.« less

  17. How Important Is Study Mode in Student University Choice?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagel, Pauline; Shaw, Robin N.

    2010-01-01

    Conjoint analysis was used to model the importance of study mode in students' choice of university. Study mode was proposed as a key choice attribute as universities have diversified their means of delivering education and increased the use of online delivery. Results are reported for two conjoint experiments. The first investigated how…

  18. Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Honda, Hidehito; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Ueda, Kazuhiro

    2017-01-01

    Some researchers on binary choice inference have argued that people make inferences based on simple heuristics, such as recognition, fluency, or familiarity. Others have argued that people make inferences based on available knowledge. To examine the boundary between heuristic and knowledge usage, we examine binary choice inference processes in…

  19. Factors Influencing Career Choice among Police Recruits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cole, Bryan

    2012-01-01

    This quantitative, non-experimental study examined the career choice factors of 154 (n = 154) police recruits to determine a correlation of age group generation to the five career choice factors presented in the Sibson Reward of Work Model. Law enforcement agencies faced a shortage of viable candidates to fill vacant positions. While extensive…

  20. The Greenfield School Revolution and School Choice. National Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forster, Greg; Woodworth, James L.

    2012-01-01

    This study uses descriptive data from the U.S. Department of Education to examine the composition of the private school sector in localities with sizeable school choice programs. If existing school choice programs are attracting educational entrepreneurs and unlocking the potential of new school models, the authors should expect to see significant…

  1. Educational Choice Regarding Technical Education: Research with Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kacerauskas, Tomas; Šaparauskas, Jonas

    2017-01-01

    In first part, the models, theories, mechanisms and presumptions, as well as the ideas of educational choice discourse have been scrutinized. In the second part, the survey on educational choice at Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania has been presented. The methodology used in this research is a survey of respondents and survey…

  2. Opportunities for Young Children to Make Choices in a Model Interdisciplinary and Inclusive Preschool Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jolivette, Kristine; McCormick, Katherine; McLaren, Elizabeth; Steed, Elizabeth A.

    2009-01-01

    The provision of choice making is frequently cited as an indicator of developmentally appropriate practice for young children with and without disabilities; however, there is little empirical evidence regarding the rate of delivery of choices within the preschool classroom. The delivery of intervention strategies by a classroom-based…

  3. The College-Choice Process of High Achieving Freshmen: A Comparative Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dale, Amanda

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the college-choice process of high achieving students. Employing current literature and previous research, it combined current models of college choice and the influential factors identified throughout the literature while utilizing the concept of bounded rationality to create a conceptual framework to…

  4. Graduate School Choice: An Examination of Individual and Institutional Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    English, David Judson

    2012-01-01

    While significant scholarly attention focuses on the development and testing of theoretically grounded models of the college choice process at the undergraduate level, far less research explores the area of graduate school enrollments. Graduate school choice, which is defined for the purposes of this paper as the decision to pursue any…

  5. Students' Choice of Universities in Germany: Structure, Factors and Information Sources Used

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Obermeit, Katrin

    2012-01-01

    Student recruitment is an increasingly important topic for universities worldwide. But in order to develop sophisticated recruitment strategies, recruitment officers need to have a clear understanding of how and why students choose colleges. This review compares the German and US research concerning university choice models, choice criteria and…

  6. Impact of the CHOICES Intervention in Preventing Alcohol-Exposed Pregnancies in American Indian Women.

    PubMed

    Hanson, Jessica D; Nelson, Morgan E; Jensen, Jamie L; Willman, Amy; Jacobs-Knight, Jacque; Ingersoll, Karen

    2017-04-01

    Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) comprise a continuum of lifelong outcomes in those born prenatally exposed to alcohol. Although studies have shown no differences in rates by race, FASD is of particular concern for American Indian communities. One tribally run prevention program is the Oglala Sioux Tribe (OST) CHOICES Program, which is modeled after the evidence-based CHOICES program that was focused on preconceptional prevention of alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP) by reducing risky drinking in women at risk for pregnancy and/or preventing unintended pregnancy. The OST CHOICES Program was made culturally appropriate for American Indian women and implemented with 3 communities, 2 on the reservation and 1 off. Data on drinking, sexual activity, and contraception use were collected at baseline and 3 and 6 months postintervention. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, 1-way analysis of variance, and a random intercept generalized estimating equation model. A total of 193 nonpregnant American Indian women enrolled in the OST CHOICES Program, and all were at risk for AEP because of binge drinking and being at risk for an unintended pregnancy. Fifty-one percent of participants completed both 3- and 6-month follow-ups. Models showed a significant decrease in AEP risk from baseline at both 3- and 6-month follow-ups, indicating the significant impact of the OST CHOICES intervention. Women in the OST CHOICES Program were more likely to reduce their risk for AEP by utilizing contraception, rather than decreasing binge drinking. Even with minor changes to make the CHOICES intervention culturally and linguistically appropriate and the potential threats to program validity those changes entail, we found a significant impact in reducing AEP risk. This highlights the capacity for the CHOICES intervention to be implemented in a wide variety of settings and populations. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  7. Analysis of the Professional Choice Self-Efficacy Scale Using the Rasch-Andrich Rating Scale Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ambiel, Rodolfo A. M.; Noronha, Ana Paula Porto; de Francisco Carvalho, Lucas

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this research was to analyze the psychometrics properties of the professional choice self-efficacy scale (PCSES), using the Rasch-Andrich rating scale model. The PCSES assesses four factors: self-appraisal, gathering occupational information, practical professional information search and future planning. Participants were 883 Brazilian…

  8. Choosing at School: A Model of Decisionmaking Behaviour within Compulsory Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents selected findings from an ESRC-funded research project examining the choices and occupational aspirations of 59 students approaching the end of their compulsory schooling. It concentrates on the development of a choice model conceptualising the decisionmaking processes of the young people involved in the study, whilst avoiding…

  9. Pricing Policy and the College Choice Process. AIR Forum Paper 1978.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chapman, Randall G.

    A presentation of a conceptual framework for viewing the admissions management process in higher education institutions and a discussion of the pricing policy process, particularly of private colleges and universities, precedes an examination of the stochastic utility model, a statistical model of the college choice process. Using student choice…

  10. Logistic Mixed Models to Investigate Implicit and Explicit Belief Tracking

    PubMed Central

    Lages, Martin; Scheel, Anne

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the proposition of a two-systems Theory of Mind in adults’ belief tracking. A sample of N = 45 participants predicted the choice of one of two opponent players after observing several rounds in an animated card game. Three matches of this card game were played and initial gaze direction on target and subsequent choice predictions were recorded for each belief task and participant. We conducted logistic regressions with mixed effects on the binary data and developed Bayesian logistic mixed models to infer implicit and explicit mentalizing in true belief and false belief tasks. Although logistic regressions with mixed effects predicted the data well a Bayesian logistic mixed model with latent task- and subject-specific parameters gave a better account of the data. As expected explicit choice predictions suggested a clear understanding of true and false beliefs (TB/FB). Surprisingly, however, model parameters for initial gaze direction also indicated belief tracking. We discuss why task-specific parameters for initial gaze directions are different from choice predictions yet reflect second-order perspective taking. PMID:27853440

  11. Do Choice Experiments Generate Reliable Willingness to Pay Estimates Theory and Experimental Evidence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-01

    make a series of choices over sets of goods which vary in terms of the levels of their attributes and their costs. The results of these surveys...results motivated the development of the theoretical model reported in Part II, followed by a second experiment (reported in Part III) to test the...deviations from truthful preference revelation in each choice mechanism. The results demonstrate that of the four choice mechanisms tested , only the repeated

  12. Genetic and Modeling Approaches Reveal Distinct Components of Impulsive Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Nautiyal, Katherine M; Wall, Melanie M; Wang, Shuai; Magalong, Valerie M; Ahmari, Susanne E; Balsam, Peter D; Blanco, Carlos; Hen, René

    2017-01-01

    Impulsivity is an endophenotype found in many psychiatric disorders including substance use disorders, pathological gambling, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Two behavioral features often considered in impulsive behavior are behavioral inhibition (impulsive action) and delayed gratification (impulsive choice). However, the extent to which these behavioral constructs represent distinct facets of behavior with discrete biological bases is unclear. To test the hypothesis that impulsive action and impulsive choice represent statistically independent behavioral constructs in mice, we collected behavioral measures of impulsivity in a single cohort of mice using well-validated operant behavioral paradigms. Mice with manipulation of serotonin 1B receptor (5-HT1BR) expression were included as a model of disordered impulsivity. A factor analysis was used to characterize correlations between the measures of impulsivity and to identify covariates. Using two approaches, we dissociated impulsive action from impulsive choice. First, the absence of 5-HT1BRs caused increased impulsive action, but not impulsive choice. Second, based on an exploratory factor analysis, a two-factor model described the data well, with measures of impulsive action and choice separating into two independent factors. A multiple-indicator multiple-causes analysis showed that 5-HT1BR expression and sex were significant covariates of impulsivity. Males displayed increased impulsivity in both dimensions, whereas 5-HT1BR expression was a predictor of increased impulsive action only. These data support the conclusion that impulsive action and impulsive choice are distinct behavioral phenotypes with dissociable biological influences that can be modeled in mice. Our work may help inform better classification, diagnosis, and treatment of psychiatric disorders, which present with disordered impulsivity. PMID:27976680

  13. Role of the plurality rule in multiple choices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvão, A. M.; Ramos, M.; Anteneodo, C.

    2016-02-01

    People are often challenged to select one among several alternatives. This situation is present not only in decisions about complex issues, e.g. political or academic choices, but also about trivial ones, such as in daily purchases at a supermarket. We tackle this scenario by means of the tools of statistical mechanics. Following this approach, we introduce and analyse a model of opinion dynamics, using a Potts-like state variable to represent the multiple choices, including the ‘undecided state’, which represents the individuals who do not make a choice. We investigate the dynamics over Erdös-Rényi and Barabási-Albert networks, two paradigmatic classes with the small-world property, and we show the impact of the type of network on the opinion dynamics. Depending on the number of available options q and on the degree distribution of the network of contacts, different final steady states are accessible: from a wide distribution of choices to a state where a given option largely dominates. The abrupt transition between them is consistent with the sudden viral dominance of a given option over many similar ones. Moreover, the probability distributions produced by the model are validated by real data. Finally, we show that the model also contemplates the real situation of overchoice, where a large number of similar alternatives makes the choice process harder and indecision prevail.

  14. Association of Sleep Adequacy With More Healthful Food Choices and Positive Workplace Experiences Among Motor Freight Workers

    PubMed Central

    Quintiliani, Lisa M.; Yang, May H.; Ebbeling, Cara B.; Stoddard, Anne M.; Pereira, Lesley K.; Sorensen, Glorian

    2009-01-01

    Objectives. We assessed whether adequate sleep is linked to more healthful eating behaviors among motor freight workers and whether it mediates the effects of workplace experiences. Methods. Data were derived from a baseline survey and assessment of permanent employees at 8 trucking terminals. Bivariate and multivariate regression models were used to examine relationships between work environment, sleep adequacy, and dietary choices. Results. The sample (n = 542) was 83% White, with a mean age of 49 years and a mean body mass index of 30 kg/m2. Most of the participants were satisfied with their job (87.5%) and reported adequate sleep (51%); 30% reported job strain. In our first model, lack of job strain and greater supervisor support were significantly associated with adequate sleep. In our second model, educational level, age, and adequate sleep were significantly associated with at least 2 of the 3 healthful eating choices assessed (P < .05). However, work experiences were not significant predictors of healthful food choices when adequate sleep was included. Conclusions. Adequate sleep is associated with more healthful food choices and may mediate the effects of workplace experiences. Thus, workplace health programs should be responsive to workers' sleep patterns. PMID:19890169

  15. Compositions and their application to the analysis of choice.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Greg

    2014-07-01

    Descriptions of steady-state patterns of choice allocation under concurrent schedules of reinforcement have long relied on the "generalized matching law" (Baum, 1974), a log-odds power function. Although a powerful model in some contexts, a series of conflicting empirical results have cast its generality in doubt. The relevance and analytic relevance of matching models can be greatly expanded by considering them in terms of compositions (Aitchison, 1986). A composition encodes a set of ratios (e.g., 5:3:2) as a vector with a constant sum, and this constraint (called closure) restricts the data to a nonstandard sample space. By exploiting this sample space, unbiased estimates of model parameters can be obtained to predict behavior given any number of choice alternatives. Additionally, the compositional analysis of choice provides tools that can accommodate both violations of scale invariance and unequal discriminability of stimuli signaling schedules of reinforcement. In order to demonstrate how choice data can be analyzed using the compositional approach, data from three previously published studies are reanalyzed. Additionally, new data is reported comparing matching behavior given four, six, and eight response alternatives. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  16. Risky choice with heuristics: reply to Birnbaum (2008), Johnson, Schulte-Mecklenbeck, and Willemsen (2008), and Rieger and Wang (2008).

    PubMed

    Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

    2008-01-01

    E. Brandstätter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig (2006) showed that the priority heuristic matches or outperforms modifications of expected utility theory in predicting choice in 4 diverse problem sets. M. H. Birnbaum (2008) argued that sets exist in which the opposite is true. The authors agree--but stress that all choice strategies have regions of good and bad performance. The accuracy of various strategies systematically depends on choice difficulty, which the authors consider a triggering variable underlying strategy selection. Agreeing with E. J. Johnson, M. Schulte-Mecklenbeck, and M. C. Willemsen (2008) that process (not "as-if") models need to be formulated, the authors show how quantitative predictions can be derived and test them. Finally, they demonstrate that many of Birnbaum's and M. O. Rieger and M. Wang's (2008) case studies championing their preferred models involved biased tests in which the priority heuristic predicted data, whereas the parameterized models were fitted to the same data. The authors propose an adaptive toolbox approach of risky choice, according to which people first seek a no-conflict solution before resorting to conflict-resolving strategies such as the priority heuristic. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

  17. A decision network account of reasoning about other people's choices.

    PubMed

    Jern, Alan; Kemp, Charles

    2015-09-01

    The ability to predict and reason about other people's choices is fundamental to social interaction. We propose that people reason about other people's choices using mental models that are similar to decision networks. Decision networks are extensions of Bayesian networks that incorporate the idea that choices are made in order to achieve goals. In our first experiment, we explore how people predict the choices of others. Our remaining three experiments explore how people infer the goals and knowledge of others by observing the choices that they make. We show that decision networks account for our data better than alternative computational accounts that do not incorporate the notion of goal-directed choice or that do not rely on probabilistic inference. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Adaptive History Biases Result from Confidence-Weighted Accumulation of past Choices

    PubMed Central

    2018-01-01

    Perceptual decision-making is biased by previous events, including the history of preceding choices: observers tend to repeat (or alternate) their judgments of the sensory environment more often than expected by chance. Computational models postulate that these so-called choice history biases result from the accumulation of internal decision signals across trials. Here, we provide psychophysical evidence for such a mechanism and its adaptive utility. Male and female human observers performed different variants of a challenging visual motion discrimination task near psychophysical threshold. In a first experiment, we decoupled categorical perceptual choices and motor responses on a trial-by-trial basis. Choice history bias was explained by previous perceptual choices, not motor responses, highlighting the importance of internal decision signals in action-independent formats. In a second experiment, observers performed the task in stimulus environments containing different levels of autocorrelation and providing no external feedback about choice correctness. Despite performing under overall high levels of uncertainty, observers adjusted both the strength and the sign of their choice history biases to these environments. When stimulus sequences were dominated by either repetitions or alternations, the individual degree of this adjustment of history bias was about as good a predictor of individual performance as individual perceptual sensitivity. The history bias adjustment scaled with two proxies for observers' confidence about their previous choices (accuracy and reaction time). Together, our results are consistent with the idea that action-independent, confidence-modulated decision variables are accumulated across choices in a flexible manner that depends on decision-makers' model of their environment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Decisions based on sensory input are often influenced by the history of one's preceding choices, manifesting as a bias to systematically repeat (or alternate) choices. We here provide support for the idea that such choice history biases arise from the context-dependent accumulation of a quantity referred to as the decision variable: the variable's sign dictates the choice and its magnitude the confidence about choice correctness. We show that choices are accumulated in an action-independent format and a context-dependent manner, weighted by the confidence about their correctness. This confidence-weighted accumulation of choices enables decision-makers to flexibly adjust their behavior to different sensory environments. The bias adjustment can be as important for optimizing performance as one's sensitivity to the momentary sensory input. PMID:29371318

  19. Adaptive History Biases Result from Confidence-weighted Accumulation of Past Choices.

    PubMed

    Braun, Anke; Urai, Anne E; Donner, Tobias H

    2018-01-25

    Perceptual decision-making is biased by previous events, including the history of preceding choices: Observers tend to repeat (or alternate) their judgments of the sensory environment more often than expected by chance. Computational models postulate that these so-called choice history biases result from the accumulation of internal decision signals across trials. Here, we provide psychophysical evidence for such a mechanism and its adaptive utility. Male and female human observers performed different variants of a challenging visual motion discrimination task near psychophysical threshold. In a first experiment, we decoupled categorical perceptual choices and motor responses on a trial-by-trial basis. Choice history bias was explained by previous perceptual choices, not motor responses, highlighting the importance of internal decision signals in action-independent formats. In a second experiment, observers performed the task in stimulus environments containing different levels of auto-correlation and providing no external feedback about choice correctness. Despite performing under overall high levels of uncertainty, observers adjusted both the strength and the sign of their choice history biases to these environments. When stimulus sequences were dominated by either repetitions or alternations, the individual degree of this adjustment of history bias was about as good a predictor of individual performance as individual perceptual sensitivity. The history bias adjustment scaled with two proxies for observers' confidence about their previous choices (accuracy and reaction time). Taken together, our results are consistent with the idea that action-independent, confidence-modulated decision variables are accumulated across choices in a flexible manner that depends on decision-makers' model of their environment. Significance statement: Decisions based on sensory input are often influenced by the history of one's preceding choices, manifesting as a bias to systematically repeat (or alternate) choices. We here provide support for the idea that such choice history biases arise from the context-dependent accumulation of a quantity referred to as the decision variable: the variable's sign dictates the choice and its magnitude the confidence about choice correctness. We show that choices are accumulated in an action-independent format and a context-dependent manner, weighted by the confidence about their correctness. This confidence-weighted accumulation of choices enables decision-makers to flexibly adjust their behavior to different sensory environments. The bias adjustment can be as important for optimizing performance as one's sensitivity to the momentary sensory input. Copyright © 2018 Braun et al.

  20. Fast and accurate Monte Carlo sampling of first-passage times from Wiener diffusion models.

    PubMed

    Drugowitsch, Jan

    2016-02-11

    We present a new, fast approach for drawing boundary crossing samples from Wiener diffusion models. Diffusion models are widely applied to model choices and reaction times in two-choice decisions. Samples from these models can be used to simulate the choices and reaction times they predict. These samples, in turn, can be utilized to adjust the models' parameters to match observed behavior from humans and other animals. Usually, such samples are drawn by simulating a stochastic differential equation in discrete time steps, which is slow and leads to biases in the reaction time estimates. Our method, instead, facilitates known expressions for first-passage time densities, which results in unbiased, exact samples and a hundred to thousand-fold speed increase in typical situations. In its most basic form it is restricted to diffusion models with symmetric boundaries and non-leaky accumulation, but our approach can be extended to also handle asymmetric boundaries or to approximate leaky accumulation.

  1. Modeling the Value of Strategic Actions in the Superior Colliculus

    PubMed Central

    Thevarajah, Dhushan; Webb, Ryan; Ferrall, Christopher; Dorris, Michael C.

    2009-01-01

    In learning models of strategic game play, an agent constructs a valuation (action value) over possible future choices as a function of past actions and rewards. Choices are then stochastic functions of these action values. Our goal is to uncover a neural signal that correlates with the action value posited by behavioral learning models. We measured activity from neurons in the superior colliculus (SC), a midbrain region involved in planning saccadic eye movements, while monkeys performed two saccade tasks. In the strategic task, monkeys competed against a computer in a saccade version of the mixed-strategy game ”matching-pennies”. In the instructed task, saccades were elicited through explicit instruction rather than free choices. In both tasks neuronal activity and behavior were shaped by past actions and rewards with more recent events exerting a larger influence. Further, SC activity predicted upcoming choices during the strategic task and upcoming reaction times during the instructed task. Finally, we found that neuronal activity in both tasks correlated with an established learning model, the Experience Weighted Attraction model of action valuation (Camerer and Ho, 1999). Collectively, our results provide evidence that action values hypothesized by learning models are represented in the motor planning regions of the brain in a manner that could be used to select strategic actions. PMID:20161807

  2. Sensorimotor Learning Biases Choice Behavior: A Learning Neural Field Model for Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Schöner, Gregor; Gail, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making) should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action selection required for decision making in ambiguous choice situations. PMID:23166483

  3. From Creatures of Habit to Goal-Directed Learners: Tracking the Developmental Emergence of Model-Based Reinforcement Learning.

    PubMed

    Decker, Johannes H; Otto, A Ross; Daw, Nathaniel D; Hartley, Catherine A

    2016-06-01

    Theoretical models distinguish two decision-making strategies that have been formalized in reinforcement-learning theory. A model-based strategy leverages a cognitive model of potential actions and their consequences to make goal-directed choices, whereas a model-free strategy evaluates actions based solely on their reward history. Research in adults has begun to elucidate the psychological mechanisms and neural substrates underlying these learning processes and factors that influence their relative recruitment. However, the developmental trajectory of these evaluative strategies has not been well characterized. In this study, children, adolescents, and adults performed a sequential reinforcement-learning task that enabled estimation of model-based and model-free contributions to choice. Whereas a model-free strategy was apparent in choice behavior across all age groups, a model-based strategy was absent in children, became evident in adolescents, and strengthened in adults. These results suggest that recruitment of model-based valuation systems represents a critical cognitive component underlying the gradual maturation of goal-directed behavior. © The Author(s) 2016.

  4. Consequences of gas flux model choice on the interpretation of metabolic balance across 15 lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dugan, Hilary; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Santoso, Arianto; Corman, Jessica; Jaimes, Aline; Nodine, Emily; Patil, Vijay; Zwart, Jacob A.; Brentrup, Jennifer A.; Hetherington, Amy; Oliver, Samantha K.; Read, Jordan S.; Winters, Kirsten; Hanson, Paul; Read, Emily; Winslow, Luke; Weathers, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystem metabolism and the contribution of carbon dioxide from lakes to the atmosphere can be estimated from free-water gas measurements through the use of mass balance models, which rely on a gas transfer coefficient (k) to model gas exchange with the atmosphere. Theoretical and empirically based models of krange in complexity from wind-driven power functions to complex surface renewal models; however, model choice is rarely considered in most studies of lake metabolism. This study used high-frequency data from 15 lakes provided by the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) to study how model choice of kinfluenced estimates of lake metabolism and gas exchange with the atmosphere. We tested 6 models of k on lakes chosen to span broad gradients in surface area and trophic states; a metabolism model was then fit to all 6 outputs of k data. We found that hourly values for k were substantially different between models and, at an annual scale, resulted in significantly different estimates of lake metabolism and gas exchange with the atmosphere.

  5. Interneuronal Mechanism for Tinbergen’s Hierarchical Model of Behavioral Choice

    PubMed Central

    Pirger, Zsolt; Crossley, Michael; László, Zita; Naskar, Souvik; Kemenes, György; O’Shea, Michael; Benjamin, Paul R.; Kemenes, Ildikó

    2014-01-01

    Summary Recent studies of behavioral choice support the notion that the decision to carry out one behavior rather than another depends on the reconfiguration of shared interneuronal networks [1]. We investigated another decision-making strategy, derived from the classical ethological literature [2, 3], which proposes that behavioral choice depends on competition between autonomous networks. According to this model, behavioral choice depends on inhibitory interactions between incompatible hierarchically organized behaviors. We provide evidence for this by investigating the interneuronal mechanisms mediating behavioral choice between two autonomous circuits that underlie whole-body withdrawal [4, 5] and feeding [6] in the pond snail Lymnaea. Whole-body withdrawal is a defensive reflex that is initiated by tactile contact with predators. As predicted by the hierarchical model, tactile stimuli that evoke whole-body withdrawal responses also inhibit ongoing feeding in the presence of feeding stimuli. By recording neurons from the feeding and withdrawal networks, we found no direct synaptic connections between the interneuronal and motoneuronal elements that generate the two behaviors. Instead, we discovered that behavioral choice depends on the interaction between two unique types of interneurons with asymmetrical synaptic connectivity that allows withdrawal to override feeding. One type of interneuron, the Pleuro-Buccal (PlB), is an extrinsic modulatory neuron of the feeding network that completely inhibits feeding when excited by touch-induced monosynaptic input from the second type of interneuron, Pedal-Dorsal12 (PeD12). PeD12 plays a critical role in behavioral choice by providing a synaptic pathway joining the two behavioral networks that underlies the competitive dominance of whole-body withdrawal over feeding. PMID:25155505

  6. Neural Mechanism for Stochastic Behavior During a Competitive Game

    PubMed Central

    Soltani, Alireza; Lee, Daeyeol; Wang, Xiao-Jing

    2006-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that non-human primates can generate highly stochastic choice behavior, especially when this is required during a competitive interaction with another agent. To understand the neural mechanism of such dynamic choice behavior, we propose a biologically plausible model of decision making endowed with synaptic plasticity that follows a reward-dependent stochastic Hebbian learning rule. This model constitutes a biophysical implementation of reinforcement learning, and it reproduces salient features of behavioral data from an experiment with monkeys playing a matching pennies game. Due to interaction with an opponent and learning dynamics, the model generates quasi-random behavior robustly in spite of intrinsic biases. Furthermore, non-random choice behavior can also emerge when the model plays against a non-interactive opponent, as observed in the monkey experiment. Finally, when combined with a meta-learning algorithm, our model accounts for the slow drift in the animal’s strategy based on a process of reward maximization. PMID:17015181

  7. Valuing river characteristics using combined site choice and participation travel cost models.

    PubMed

    Johnstone, C; Markandya, A

    2006-08-01

    This paper presents new welfare measures for marginal changes in river quality in selected English rivers. The river quality indicators used include chemical, biological and habitat-level attributes. Economic values for recreational use of three types of river-upland, lowland and chalk-are presented. A survey of anglers was carried out and using these data, two travel cost models were estimated, one to predict the numbers of trips and the other to predict angling site choice. These models were then linked to estimate the welfare associated with marginal changes in river quality using the participation levels as estimated in the trip prediction model. The model results showed that higher flow rates, biological quality and nutrient pollution levels affect site choice and influence the likelihood of a fishing trip. Consumer surplus values per trip for a 10% change in river attributes range from pound 0.04 to pound 3.93 ( pound 2001) depending on the attribute.

  8. Evaluation of the Science Enrichment Activities (SEA) Program: A Decision Oriented Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linn, Marcia C.

    1978-01-01

    Three questions guided an evaluation of sixth and eighth grade science enrichment activities: (1) Does a free choice interactive program affect cognitive abilities? (2) Do students in a free choice program make predictable selections of activities based on their age, sex, or ability level? and (3) Are specific student choices associated with…

  9. School Choice and School Discipline: Why We Should Expect the Former to Improve the Latter

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garen, John

    2014-01-01

    This article argues that school choice/competition ought to play a central role in determining school discipline policy. Unfortunately, the status quo emphasizes disciplinary rules established by central authorities and school choice is often limited. The author provides an overview of these issues and presents a model of rules- versus…

  10. Providing Information to Parents of Children with Mental Health Problems: A Discrete Choice Conjoint Analysis of Professional Preferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cunningham, Charles E.; Deal, Ken; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Buchanan, Don H.; Sdao-Jarvie, Kathie

    2009-01-01

    We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the ways 645 children's mental health (CMH) professionals preferred to provide information to parents seeking CMH services. Participants completed 20 choice tasks presenting experimentally varied combinations of the study's 14 4-level CMH information transfer attributes. Latent class analysis…

  11. Patterns of Response Times and Response Choices to Science Questions: The Influence of Relative Processing Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heckler, Andrew F.; Scaife, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    We report on five experiments investigating response choices and response times to simple science questions that evoke student "misconceptions," and we construct a simple model to explain the patterns of response choices. Physics students were asked to compare a physical quantity represented by the slope, such as speed, on simple physics…

  12. A field test for host discrimination and avoidance behavior for Rhagoletis pomonella flies in the western United States

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Prezygotic isolation due to habitat choice is important to many models of speciation-with-gene-flow. Habitat choice is usually thought to occur through positive preferences of organisms for particular environments. However, avoidance of non-natal environments may also play a role in choice and have ...

  13. The Relation between Metastrategic Knowledge, Strategy Use and Task Performance: Findings and Reflections from a Numerosity Judgement Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luwel, Koen; Torbeyns, Joke; Verschaffel, Lieven

    2003-01-01

    In the research literature several positions concerning the role played by metacognition in adaptive strategy choice can be distinguished. While many authors adhere so-called metacognitive models of strategy choice and strategy change, others have questioned the extent to which metacognitive factors are associated with strategy choice and task…

  14. Field of Study Choice by Community College Students in Canada

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boudarbat, Brahim

    2008-01-01

    Community college education is a key component of Canadian postsecondary education, with 21% of the population aged 25-64 having college credentials. In order to understand educational decisions at this level, we estimate a model of choice of field of study and analyze, among other things, the effect of earnings on this choice. In this way, we…

  15. School Choice and the Decision-Making of School Leaders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kalmar, William F., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    Almost since the time public schools first opened in the United States there have been those seeking to reform them. One of the most persistent cries for reform has been the call to apply the free market economic model of competition through consumer choice on the public school system. Schools, consumer choice supporters posit, when faced with the…

  16. Community choices and housing demands: a spatial analysis of the southern Appalachian highlands

    Treesearch

    Seong-Hoon Cho; David H. Newman; David N. Wear

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines housing demand using an integrated approach that combines residential decisions about choices of community in the Southern Appalachian region with the application of a Geographic Information System (GIS). The empirical model infers a distinctive heterogeneity in the characteristics of community choices. The results also indicate that socio-economic...

  17. Student Destination Choices in Higher Education: Exploring Attitudes of Brazilian Students to Study in the United Kingdom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Monika

    2014-01-01

    Cross-border education provides evidence about international student destination choice including the push and pull model of international student choice. The research upon which this article is based, into Brazilian students' decisions to study at universities in the United Kingdom, reveals some particular barriers such as cost, negative past…

  18. Previous Experience Not Required: Contextualizing the Choice to Teach School-Based Agricultural Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marx, Adam A.; Smith, Amy R.; Smalley, Scott W.; Miller, Courtney

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify key career choice items which lead students without previous experience in school-based agricultural education (SBAE) to pursuing agricultural education. The Ag Ed FIT-Choice® model adapted by Lawver (2009) and developed by Richardson and Watt (2006) provided the investigative framework to design this…

  19. Bayes factors and multimodel inference

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

    2009-01-01

    Multimodel inference has two main themes: model selection, and model averaging. Model averaging is a means of making inference conditional on a model set, rather than on a selected model, allowing formal recognition of the uncertainty associated with model choice. The Bayesian paradigm provides a natural framework for model averaging, and provides a context for evaluation of the commonly used AIC weights. We review Bayesian multimodel inference, noting the importance of Bayes factors. Noting the sensitivity of Bayes factors to the choice of priors on parameters, we define and propose nonpreferential priors as offering a reasonable standard for objective multimodel inference.

  20. Genetic determination of height-mediated mate choice.

    PubMed

    Tenesa, Albert; Rawlik, Konrad; Navarro, Pau; Canela-Xandri, Oriol

    2016-01-19

    Numerous studies have reported positive correlations among couples for height. This suggests that humans find individuals of similar height attractive. However, the answer to whether the choice of a mate with a similar phenotype is genetically or environmentally determined has been elusive. Here we provide an estimate of the genetic contribution to height choice in mates in 13,068 genotyped couples. Using a mixed linear model we show that 4.1% of the variation in the mate height choice is determined by a person's own genotype, as expected in a model where one's height determines the choice of mate height. Furthermore, the genotype of an individual predicts their partners' height in an independent dataset of 15,437 individuals with 13% accuracy, which is 64% of the theoretical maximum achievable with a heritability of 0.041. Theoretical predictions suggest that approximately 5% of the heritability of height is due to the positive covariance between allelic effects at different loci, which is caused by assortative mating. Hence, the coupling of alleles with similar effects could substantially contribute to the missing heritability of height. These estimates provide new insight into the mechanisms that govern mate choice in humans and warrant the search for the genetic causes of choice of mate height. They have important methodological implications and contribute to the missing heritability debate.

  1. Choice of electricity provider in California after deregulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keanini, Rasa Ilze

    Surveys often ask consumers how much they are willing to pay for certain goods and services, without requiring the consumer to actually pay for the good or service. Such surveys, termed stated preference studies, find that consumers value renewable electricity. This result is in contrast to actual experiences in recently deregulated electricity markets in several states, including California. When given the opportunity to choose in California, only one to two percent of the population opted for renewable electricity products. This dissertation used data from residential customers who chose an alternative electricity product in California's deregulated electricity market to determine the value placed on the renewable attribute of electricity products. This dissertation begins by taking a historical look at the electricity market of the nation and specifically California. From 1998 through 2001, California's electricity market was deregulated to include retail competition. This dissertation used data from electric service providers to reveal the factors influencing residential customer's choice of electricity product. Discrete choice models were used to determine the factors influencing electricity product choice. The results indicated that both price and renewable content had an effect on choice of product. Additionally, a more complicated model jointly estimating the discrete choice of electricity product with the continuous choice of electricity consumption (kWh) was specified and estimated.

  2. Decisions reduce sensitivity to subsequent information.

    PubMed

    Bronfman, Zohar Z; Brezis, Noam; Moran, Rani; Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Donner, Tobias; Usher, Marius

    2015-07-07

    Behavioural studies over half a century indicate that making categorical choices alters beliefs about the state of the world. People seem biased to confirm previous choices, and to suppress contradicting information. These choice-dependent biases imply a fundamental bound of human rationality. However, it remains unclear whether these effects extend to lower level decisions, and only little is known about the computational mechanisms underlying them. Building on the framework of sequential-sampling models of decision-making, we developed novel psychophysical protocols that enable us to dissect quantitatively how choices affect the way decision-makers accumulate additional noisy evidence. We find robust choice-induced biases in the accumulation of abstract numerical (experiment 1) and low-level perceptual (experiment 2) evidence. These biases deteriorate estimations of the mean value of the numerical sequence (experiment 1) and reduce the likelihood to revise decisions (experiment 2). Computational modelling reveals that choices trigger a reduction of sensitivity to subsequent evidence via multiplicative gain modulation, rather than shifting the decision variable towards the chosen alternative in an additive fashion. Our results thus show that categorical choices alter the evidence accumulation mechanism itself, rather than just its outcome, rendering the decision-maker less sensitive to new information. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  3. Intertemporal choice in lemurs.

    PubMed

    Stevens, Jeffrey R; Mühlhoff, Nelly

    2012-02-01

    Different species vary in their ability to wait for delayed rewards in intertemporal choice tasks. Models of rate maximization account for part of this variation, but other factors such as social structure and feeding ecology seem to underly some species differences. Though studies have evaluated intertemporal choice in several primate species, including Old World monkeys, New World monkeys, and apes, prosimians have not been tested. This study investigated intertemporal choices in three species of lemur (black-and-white ruffed lemurs, Varecia variegata, red ruffed lemurs, Varecia rubra, and black lemurs, Eulemur macaco) to assess how they compare to other primate species and whether their choices are consistent with rate maximization. We offered lemurs a choice between two food items available immediately and six food items available after a delay. We found that by adjusting the delay to the larger reward, the lemurs were indifferent between the two options at a mean delay of 17 s, ranging from 9 to 25 s. These data are comparable to data collected from common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus). The lemur data were not consistent with models of rate maximization. The addition of lemurs to the list of species tested in these tasks will help uncover the role of life history and socio-ecological factors influencing intertemporal choices. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Contextual and social influences on valuation and choice.

    PubMed

    Engelmann, Jan B; Hein, Grit

    2013-01-01

    To survive in our complex environment, we have to adapt to changing contexts. Prior research that investigated how contextual changes are processed in the human brain has demonstrated important modulatory influences on multiple cognitive processes underlying decision-making, including perceptual judgments, working memory, as well as cognitive and attentional control. However, in everyday life, the importance of context is even more obvious during economic and social interactions, which often have implicit rule sets that need to be recognized by a decision-maker. Here, we review recent evidence from an increasing number of studies in the fields of Neuroeconomics and Social Neuroscience that investigate the neurobiological basis of contextual effects on valuation and social choice. Contrary to the assumptions of rational choice theory, multiple contextual factors, such as the availability of alternative choice options, shifts in reference point, and social context, have been shown to modulate behavior, as well as signals in task-relevant neural networks. A consistent picture that emerges from neurobiological results is that valuation-related activity in striatum and ventromedial prefrontal cortex is highly context dependent during both social and nonsocial choice. Alternative approaches to model and explain choice behavior, such as comparison-based choice models, as well as implications for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. The Behavioral Economics of Choice and Interval Timing

    PubMed Central

    Jozefowiez, J.; Staddon, J. E. R.; Cerutti, D. T.

    2009-01-01

    We propose a simple behavioral economic model (BEM) describing how reinforcement and interval timing interact. The model assumes a Weber-law-compliant logarithmic representation of time. Associated with each represented time value are the payoffs that have been obtained for each possible response. At a given real time, the response with the highest payoff is emitted. The model accounts for a wide range of data from procedures such as simple bisection, metacognition in animals, economic effects in free-operant psychophysical procedures and paradoxical choice in double-bisection procedures. Although it assumes logarithmic time representation, it can also account for data from the time-left procedure usually cited in support of linear time representation. It encounters some difficulties in complex free-operant choice procedures, such as concurrent mixed fixed-interval schedules as well as some of the data on double bisection, that may involve additional processes. Overall, BEM provides a theoretical framework for understanding how reinforcement and interval timing work together to determine choice between temporally differentiated reinforcers. PMID:19618985

  6. Piéron’s Law and Optimal Behavior in Perceptual Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    van Maanen, Leendert; Grasman, Raoul P. P. P.; Forstmann, Birte U.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2012-01-01

    Piéron’s Law is a psychophysical regularity in signal detection tasks that states that mean response times decrease as a power function of stimulus intensity. In this article, we extend Piéron’s Law to perceptual two-choice decision-making tasks, and demonstrate that the law holds as the discriminability between two competing choices is manipulated, even though the stimulus intensity remains constant. This result is consistent with predictions from a Bayesian ideal observer model. The model assumes that in order to respond optimally in a two-choice decision-making task, participants continually update the posterior probability of each response alternative, until the probability of one alternative crosses a criterion value. In addition to predictions for two-choice decision-making tasks, we extend the ideal observer model to predict Piéron’s Law in signal detection tasks. We conclude that Piéron’s Law is a general phenomenon that may be caused by optimality constraints. PMID:22232572

  7. Continuous track paths reveal additive evidence integration in multistep decision making.

    PubMed

    Buc Calderon, Cristian; Dewulf, Myrtille; Gevers, Wim; Verguts, Tom

    2017-10-03

    Multistep decision making pervades daily life, but its underlying mechanisms remain obscure. We distinguish four prominent models of multistep decision making, namely serial stage, hierarchical evidence integration, hierarchical leaky competing accumulation (HLCA), and probabilistic evidence integration (PEI). To empirically disentangle these models, we design a two-step reward-based decision paradigm and implement it in a reaching task experiment. In a first step, participants choose between two potential upcoming choices, each associated with two rewards. In a second step, participants choose between the two rewards selected in the first step. Strikingly, as predicted by the HLCA and PEI models, the first-step decision dynamics were initially biased toward the choice representing the highest sum/mean before being redirected toward the choice representing the maximal reward (i.e., initial dip). Only HLCA and PEI predicted this initial dip, suggesting that first-step decision dynamics depend on additive integration of competing second-step choices. Our data suggest that potential future outcomes are progressively unraveled during multistep decision making.

  8. I can't wait: Methods for measuring and moderating individual differences in impulsive choice.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Jennifer R; Hill, Catherine C; Marshall, Andrew T; Stuebing, Sarah L; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2015-01-01

    Impulsive choice behavior occurs when individuals make choices without regard for future consequences. This behavior is often maladaptive and is a common symptom in many disorders, including drug abuse, compulsive gambling, and obesity. Several proposed mechanisms may influence impulsive choice behavior. These mechanisms provide a variety of pathways that may provide the basis for individual differences that are often evident when measuring choice behavior. This review provides an overview of these different pathways to impulsive choice, and the behavioral intervention strategies being developed to moderate impulsive choice. Because of the compelling link between impulsive choice behavior and the near-epidemic pervasiveness of obesity in the United States, we focus on the relationship between impulsive choice behavior and obesity as a test case for application of the multiple pathways approach. Choosing immediate gratification over healthier long term food choices is a contributing factor to the obesity crisis. Behavioral interventions can lead to more self controlled choices in a rat pre-clinical model, suggesting a possible gateway for translation to human populations. Designing and implementing effective impulsive choice interventions is crucial to improving the overall health and well-being of impulsive individuals.

  9. I can't wait: Methods for measuring and moderating individual differences in impulsive choice

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, Jennifer R.; Hill, Catherine C.; Marshall, Andrew T.; Stuebing, Sarah L.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2016-01-01

    Impulsive choice behavior occurs when individuals make choices without regard for future consequences. This behavior is often maladaptive and is a common symptom in many disorders, including drug abuse, compulsive gambling, and obesity. Several proposed mechanisms may influence impulsive choice behavior. These mechanisms provide a variety of pathways that may provide the basis for individual differences that are often evident when measuring choice behavior. This review provides an overview of these different pathways to impulsive choice, and the behavioral intervention strategies being developed to moderate impulsive choice. Because of the compelling link between impulsive choice behavior and the near-epidemic pervasiveness of obesity in the United States, we focus on the relationship between impulsive choice behavior and obesity as a test case for application of the multiple pathways approach. Choosing immediate gratification over healthier long term food choices is a contributing factor to the obesity crisis. Behavioral interventions can lead to more self controlled choices in a rat pre-clinical model, suggesting a possible gateway for translation to human populations. Designing and implementing effective impulsive choice interventions is crucial to improving the overall health and well-being of impulsive individuals. PMID:27695664

  10. Latent lifestyle preferences and household location decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Joan L.; Li, Jieping

    2007-04-01

    Lifestyle, indicating preferences towards a particular way of living, is a key driver of the decision of where to live. We employ latent class choice models to represent this behavior, where the latent classes are the lifestyles and the choice model is the choice of residential location. Thus, we simultaneously estimate lifestyle groups and how lifestyle impacts location decisions. Empirical results indicate three latent lifestyle segments: suburban dwellers, urban dwellers, and transit-riders. The suggested lifestyle segments have intriguing policy implications. Lifecycle characteristics are used to predict lifestyle preferences, although there remain significant aspects that cannot be explained by observable variables.

  11. Emotion and decision making.

    PubMed

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S

    2015-01-03

    A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

  12. Fetal Monitoring: Creating a Culture of Safety With Informed Choice

    PubMed Central

    Heelan, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    The dominant culture in labor and birth is the medical model, not the midwifery model of woman-centered care. Consensus among professional and governmental groups is that, based on the evidence, intermittent auscultation is safer to use in healthy women with uncomplicated pregnancies than electronic fetal monitoring (EFM). Barriers impact the laboring woman’s ability to give informed choice regarding fetal monitoring. Lack of informed choice denies a woman her right to be in control of her birth experience, and is in opposition to a woman’s right to autonomy and self-determination. PMID:24868127

  13. Efficient processing of two-dimensional arrays with C or C++

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Donato, David I.

    2017-07-20

    Because fast and efficient serial processing of raster-graphic images and other two-dimensional arrays is a requirement in land-change modeling and other applications, the effects of 10 factors on the runtimes for processing two-dimensional arrays with C and C++ are evaluated in a comparative factorial study. This study’s factors include the choice among three C or C++ source-code techniques for array processing; the choice of Microsoft Windows 7 or a Linux operating system; the choice of 4-byte or 8-byte array elements and indexes; and the choice of 32-bit or 64-bit memory addressing. This study demonstrates how programmer choices can reduce runtimes by 75 percent or more, even after compiler optimizations. Ten points of practical advice for faster processing of two-dimensional arrays are offered to C and C++ programmers. Further study and the development of a C and C++ software test suite are recommended.Key words: array processing, C, C++, compiler, computational speed, land-change modeling, raster-graphic image, two-dimensional array, software efficiency

  14. Comparing theories of reference-dependent choice.

    PubMed

    Bhatia, Sudeep

    2017-09-01

    Preferences are influenced by the presence or absence of salient choice options, known as reference points. This behavioral tendency is traditionally attributed to the loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity assumptions of prospect theory. In contrast, some psychological research suggests that reference dependence is caused by attentional biases that increase the subjective weighting of the reference point's primary attributes. Although both theories are able to successfully account for behavioral findings involving reference dependence, this article shows that these theories make diverging choice predictions when available options are inferior to the reference point. It presents the results of 2 studies that use settings with inferior choice options to compare these 2 theories. The analysis involves quantitative fits to participant-level choice data, and the results indicate that most participants are better described by models with attentional bias than they are by models with loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity. These differences appear to be caused by violations of loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in losses. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Theory of choice in bandit, information sampling and foraging tasks.

    PubMed

    Averbeck, Bruno B

    2015-03-01

    Decision making has been studied with a wide array of tasks. Here we examine the theoretical structure of bandit, information sampling and foraging tasks. These tasks move beyond tasks where the choice in the current trial does not affect future expected rewards. We have modeled these tasks using Markov decision processes (MDPs). MDPs provide a general framework for modeling tasks in which decisions affect the information on which future choices will be made. Under the assumption that agents are maximizing expected rewards, MDPs provide normative solutions. We find that all three classes of tasks pose choices among actions which trade-off immediate and future expected rewards. The tasks drive these trade-offs in unique ways, however. For bandit and information sampling tasks, increasing uncertainty or the time horizon shifts value to actions that pay-off in the future. Correspondingly, decreasing uncertainty increases the relative value of actions that pay-off immediately. For foraging tasks the time-horizon plays the dominant role, as choices do not affect future uncertainty in these tasks.

  16. The Neural Basis of Risky Choice with Affective Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Suter, Renata S.; Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Endestad, Tor; Biele, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Both normative and many descriptive theories of decision making under risk are based on the notion that outcomes are weighted by their probability, with subsequent maximization of the (subjective) expected outcome. Numerous investigations from psychology, economics, and neuroscience have produced evidence consistent with this notion. However, this research has typically investigated choices involving relatively affect-poor, monetary outcomes. We compared choice in relatively affect-poor, monetary lottery problems with choice in relatively affect-rich medical decision problems. Computational modeling of behavioral data and model-based neuroimaging analyses provide converging evidence for substantial differences in the respective decision mechanisms. Relative to affect-poor choices, affect-rich choices yielded a more strongly curved probability weighting function of cumulative prospect theory, thus signaling that the psychological impact of probabilities is strongly diminished for affect-rich outcomes. Examining task-dependent brain activation, we identified a region-by-condition interaction indicating qualitative differences of activation between affect-rich and affect-poor choices. Moreover, brain activation in regions that were more active during affect-poor choices (e.g., the supramarginal gyrus) correlated with individual trial-by-trial decision weights, indicating that these regions reflect processing of probabilities. Formal reverse inference Neurosynth meta-analyses suggested that whereas affect-poor choices seem to be based on brain mechanisms for calculative processes, affect-rich choices are driven by the representation of outcomes’ emotional value and autobiographical memories associated with them. These results provide evidence that the traditional notion of expectation maximization may not apply in the context of outcomes laden with affective responses, and that understanding the brain mechanisms of decision making requires the domain of the decision to be taken into account. PMID:25830918

  17. The neural basis of risky choice with affective outcomes.

    PubMed

    Suter, Renata S; Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Endestad, Tor; Biele, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Both normative and many descriptive theories of decision making under risk are based on the notion that outcomes are weighted by their probability, with subsequent maximization of the (subjective) expected outcome. Numerous investigations from psychology, economics, and neuroscience have produced evidence consistent with this notion. However, this research has typically investigated choices involving relatively affect-poor, monetary outcomes. We compared choice in relatively affect-poor, monetary lottery problems with choice in relatively affect-rich medical decision problems. Computational modeling of behavioral data and model-based neuroimaging analyses provide converging evidence for substantial differences in the respective decision mechanisms. Relative to affect-poor choices, affect-rich choices yielded a more strongly curved probability weighting function of cumulative prospect theory, thus signaling that the psychological impact of probabilities is strongly diminished for affect-rich outcomes. Examining task-dependent brain activation, we identified a region-by-condition interaction indicating qualitative differences of activation between affect-rich and affect-poor choices. Moreover, brain activation in regions that were more active during affect-poor choices (e.g., the supramarginal gyrus) correlated with individual trial-by-trial decision weights, indicating that these regions reflect processing of probabilities. Formal reverse inference Neurosynth meta-analyses suggested that whereas affect-poor choices seem to be based on brain mechanisms for calculative processes, affect-rich choices are driven by the representation of outcomes' emotional value and autobiographical memories associated with them. These results provide evidence that the traditional notion of expectation maximization may not apply in the context of outcomes laden with affective responses, and that understanding the brain mechanisms of decision making requires the domain of the decision to be taken into account.

  18. Group differences in adult simple arithmetic: good retrievers, not-so-good retrievers, and perfectionists.

    PubMed

    Hecht, Steven A

    2006-01-01

    We used the choice/no-choice methodology in two experiments to examine patterns of strategy selection and execution in groups of undergraduates. Comparisons between choice and no-choice trials revealed three groups. Some participants good retrievers) were consistently able to use retrieval to solve almost all arithmetic problems. Other participants (perfectionists) successfully used retrieval substantially less often in choice-allowed trials than when strategy choices were prohibited. Not-so-good retrievers retrieved correct answers less often than the other participants in both the choice-allowed and no-choice conditions. No group differences emerged with respect to time needed to search and access answers from long-term memory; however, not-so-good retrievers were consistently slower than the other subgroups at executing fact-retrieval processes that are peripheral to memory search and access. Theoretical models of simple arithmetic, such as the Strategy Choice and Discovery Simulation (Shrager & Siegler, 1998), should be updated to include the existence of both perfectionist and not-so-good retriever adults.

  19. Application of rrm as behavior mode choice on modelling transportation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surbakti, M. S.; Sadullah, A. F.

    2018-03-01

    Transportation mode selection, the first step in transportation planning process, is probably one of the most important planning elements. The development of models that can explain the preference of passengers regarding their chosen mode of public transport option will contribute to the improvement and development of existing public transport. Logit models have been widely used to determine the mode choice models in which the alternative are different transport modes. Random Regret Minimization (RRM) theory is a theory developed from the behavior to choose (choice behavior) in a state of uncertainty. During its development, the theory was used in various disciplines, such as marketing, micro economy, psychology, management, and transportation. This article aims to show the use of RRM in various modes of selection, from the results of various studies that have been conducted both in north sumatera and western Java.

  20. Personal Attitudes or Structural Factors? A Contextual Analysis of Breastfeeding Duration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKinley, Nita Mary; Hyde, Janet Shibley

    2004-01-01

    A personal attitudes model (i.e., infant feeding choices are based on personal attitudes primarily) and a structural factors model (i.e., feeding choices are shaped by the structural contexts of women's lives, as much as personal attitudes) of women's breastfeeding behavior were tested by surveying a longitudinal sample of 548 mostly European…

  1. Learning a Generative Probabilistic Grammar of Experience: A Process-Level Model of Language Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kolodny, Oren; Lotem, Arnon; Edelman, Shimon

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a set of biologically and computationally motivated design choices for modeling the learning of language, or of other types of sequential, hierarchically structured experience and behavior, and describe an implemented system that conforms to these choices and is capable of unsupervised learning from raw natural-language corpora. Given…

  2. Using the Contextual Model of Learning to Understand Visitor Learning from a Science Center Exhibition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, John; Storksdieck, Martin

    2005-01-01

    Falk and Dierking's Contextual Model of Learning was used as a theoretical construct for investigating learning within a free-choice setting. A review of previous research identified key variables fundamental to free-choice science learning. The study sought to answer two questions: (1) How do specific independent variables individually contribute…

  3. A Model of Creativity in Organizations: John Holland's Theory of Vocational Choice (1973) at Multiple Levels of Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharif, Rukhsar

    2017-01-01

    This conceptual paper serves to create a model of creativity and innovation at different organizational levels. It draws on John Holland's Theory of Vocational Choice (1973) as the basis for its structure by incorporating the six different personality types from his theory: conventional, enterprising, realistic, social, investigative, and…

  4. Learning Styles, Motivation, and Career Choice: Insights for International Business Students from Linguistic Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tran, Xuan; Williams, Janae; Mitre, Bridget; Walker, Victoria; Carter, Kala

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop a model of motives and career choice based on learning styles in order to apply the model in teaching business. Although the relationship between learning and McClelland's (1961) three motives (achievement, affiliation, and power) as confirmed that motives are "learned," little research…

  5. Learning To Spell: Variability, Choice, and Change in Children's Strategy Use.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rittle-Johnson, Bethany; Siegler, Robert S.

    1999-01-01

    Employed a trial-by-trial analysis of spelling-strategy use to examine whether the overlapping-waves model could account for strategy choices in spelling for children tested in first and second grade. Found that the model was useful for understanding the development of spelling, despite the fact that explicit use of backup strategies had a minimal…

  6. Family extension and the elderly: economic, demographic, and family cycle factors.

    PubMed

    Kobrin, F E

    1981-05-01

    This paper reports on the results of applying a multivariate regression model of living arrangements choices to census data on the 1970 U. S. population of nonmarried, nonparenting adults. The model examines the factors affecting living with (1) relatives or (2) living alone or with nonrelatives. These factors include sex, income, marital history, and age. In addition, the model tests whether living arrangements choices differ for the elderly relative to other ages. The analysis shows that higher income, the experience of divorce, and being male are all associated with a higher probability of nonfamily living. Widowhood has the same effect, but only for women. The central finding, however, is that there is no special role for the elderly in living arrangements choices.

  7. Behavioral and Neural Signatures of Reduced Updating of Alternative Options in Alcohol-Dependent Patients during Flexible Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Reiter, Andrea M F; Deserno, Lorenz; Kallert, Thomas; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Heinz, Andreas; Schlagenhauf, Florian

    2016-10-26

    Addicted individuals continue substance use despite the knowledge of harmful consequences and often report having no choice but to consume. Computational psychiatry accounts have linked this clinical observation to difficulties in making flexible and goal-directed decisions in dynamic environments via consideration of potential alternative choices. To probe this in alcohol-dependent patients (n = 43) versus healthy volunteers (n = 35), human participants performed an anticorrelated decision-making task during functional neuroimaging. Via computational modeling, we investigated behavioral and neural signatures of inference regarding the alternative option. While healthy control subjects exploited the anticorrelated structure of the task to guide decision-making, alcohol-dependent patients were relatively better explained by a model-free strategy due to reduced inference on the alternative option after punishment. Whereas model-free prediction error signals were preserved, alcohol-dependent patients exhibited blunted medial prefrontal signatures of inference on the alternative option. This reduction was associated with patients' behavioral deficit in updating the alternative choice option and their obsessive-compulsive drinking habits. All results remained significant when adjusting for potential confounders (e.g., neuropsychological measures and gray matter density). A disturbed integration of alternative choice options implemented by the medial prefrontal cortex appears to be one important explanation for the puzzling question of why addicted individuals continue drug consumption despite negative consequences. In addiction, patients maintain substance use despite devastating consequences and often report having no choice but to consume. These clinical observations have been theoretically linked to disturbed mechanisms of inference, for example, to difficulties when learning statistical regularities of the environmental structure to guide decisions. Using computational modeling, we demonstrate disturbed inference on alternative choice options in alcohol addiction. Patients neglecting "what might have happened" was accompanied by blunted coding of inference regarding alternative choice options in the medial prefrontal cortex. An impaired integration of alternative choice options implemented by the medial prefrontal cortex might contribute to ongoing drug consumption in the face of evident negative consequences. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3610935-14$15.00/0.

  8. Should flavours be banned in cigarettes and e-cigarettes? Evidence on adult smokers and recent quitters from a discrete choice experiment.

    PubMed

    Buckell, John; Marti, Joachim; Sindelar, Jody L

    2018-05-28

    To provide the policy-relevant estimates of impacts of alternative flavour bans on preferences and demand for cigarettes and e-cigarettes in adult smokers and recent quitters. A best-best discrete choice experiment (DCE) is used to elicit smokers' and recent quitters' preferences for flavours, price, health impact and nicotine level in cigarettes and e-cigarettes. Choice of tobacco products and an opt-out option were examined. An efficient design yielded 36 choice sets. Exploded logit choice models were estimated. Flavour bans are modelled by restricting flavour coefficients in the estimated model. A sample of 2031 adult smokers and recent quitters was recruited to complete an online survey and DCE. Current smokers and recent quitters, on average, prefer cigarettes and menthol cigarettes over flavoured e-cigarettes. However, there is substantial preference heterogeneity by younger adults (ages 18-25), race/ethnicity and respondents with higher education. Our predictions suggest that a ban on menthol cigarettes would produce the greatest reduction in the choice of cigarettes (-5.2%), but with an accompanying increase in e-cigarettes use (3.8%). In contrast, banning flavours in e-cigarettes, while allowing menthol in cigarettes would result in the greatest increase in the selection of cigarettes (8.3%), and a decline in the use of e-cigarettes (-11.1%). A ban on all flavours, but tobacco in both products would increase 'opting-out' the most (5.2%) but would also increase choice of cigarettes (2.7%) and decrease choice of e-cigarettes (-7.9%). A ban on flavoured e-cigarettes alone would likely increase the choice of cigarettes in smokers, arguably the more harmful way of obtaining nicotine, whereas a ban on menthol cigarettes alone would likely be more effective in reducing the choice of cigarettes. A ban on all flavours in both products would likely reduce the smoking/vaping rates, but the use of cigarettes would be higher than in the status quo. Policy-makers should use these results to guide the choice of flavour bans in light of their stance on the potential health impacts both products. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  9. Impact of co-located general practitioner (GP) clinics and patient choice on duration of wait in the emergency department.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Anurag; Inder, Brett

    2011-08-01

    To empirically model the determinants of duration of wait of emergency (triage category 2) patients in an emergency department (ED) focusing on two questions: (i) What is the effect of enhancing the degree of choice for non-urgent (triage category 5) patients on duration of wait for emergency (category 2) patients in EDs; and (ii) What is the effect of co-located GP clinics on duration of wait for emergency patients in EDs? The answers to these questions will help in understanding the effectiveness of demand management strategies, which are identified as one of the solutions to ED crowding. The duration of wait for each patient (difference between arrival time and time first seen by treating doctor) was modelled as a function of input factors (degree of choice, patient characteristics, weekend admission, metro/regional hospital, concentration of emergency (category 2) patients in hospital service area), throughput factors (availability of doctors and nurses) and output factor (hospital bed capacity). The unit of analysis was a patient episode and the model was estimated using a survival regression technique. The degree of choice for non-urgent (category 5) patients has a non-linear effect: more choice for non-urgent patients is associated with longer waits for emergency patients at lower values and shorter waits at higher values of degree of choice. Thus more choice of EDs for non-urgent patients is related to a longer wait for emergency (category 2) patients in EDs. The waiting time for emergency patients in hospital campuses with co-located GP clinics was 19% lower (1.5 min less) on average than for those waiting in campuses without co-located GP clinics. These findings suggest that diverting non-urgent (category 5) patients to an alternative model of care (co-located GP clinics) is a more effective demand management strategy and will reduce ED crowding.

  10. Forecasting the impact of transport improvements on commuting and residential choice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elhorst, J. Paul; Oosterhaven, Jan

    2006-03-01

    This paper develops a probabilistic, competing-destinations, assignment model that predicts changes in the spatial pattern of the working population as a result of transport improvements. The choice of residence is explained by a new non-parametric model, which represents an alternative to the popular multinominal logit model. Travel times between zones are approximated by a normal distribution function with different mean and variance for each pair of zones, whereas previous models only use average travel times. The model’s forecast error of the spatial distribution of the Dutch working population is 7% when tested on 1998 base-year data. To incorporate endogenous changes in its causal variables, an almost ideal demand system is estimated to explain the choice of transport mode, and a new economic geography inter-industry model (RAEM) is estimated to explain the spatial distribution of employment. In the application, the model is used to forecast the impact of six mutually exclusive Dutch core-periphery railway proposals in the projection year 2020.

  11. Course Selection Theory and College Transition Seminars: An Adaptation of College Choice Models to Explain First-Year Students' Course Enrollment Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graff, Curt Gerard

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation examines the course-enrollment behavior of first-year students at a public Midwestern university. Using the student choice construct, modern college choice theory, and the constructs of habitus, human capital, financial capital, social capital, cultural capital, along with background variables such as gender and locus of control,…

  12. The Use of Arabic in Kuwaiti EFL Classrooms: An Exploratory Study on the Patterns and Functions of Language Choice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bader Alghasab, Maha

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between the functions and patterns of language choice in EFL classrooms in a Kuwaiti primary school. It applies the overall order model, specifically the medium of classroom interaction, to identify three patterns of language choice: an English monolingual medium, an Arabic monolingual medium and a bilingual…

  13. Choice of College Major: An Exploration of Appalachian Female Choice of an Early Childhood Education Major

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gannoe, Lisa N.

    2013-01-01

    First generation Appalachian female students are exposed to gender differences in roles and career choices that are modeled in the family. A case study approach was used to obtain qualitative data from five students at Eastern Kentucky University and their mothers regarding why these students chose to major in child development and early childhood…

  14. An Exploratory Study of the Factors Influencing Undergraduate Student Choice: The Case of Higher Education in Scotland

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Briggs, Senga

    2006-01-01

    This article explores the factors influencing student choice at six contrasting universities in Scotland to establish if there is value in developing a model for predicting institutional choice for Scottish undergraduate entry. It is based on a survey of 651 students in two undergraduate disciplines, accountancy and engineering, across the six…

  15. Social Cognitive Career Theory and the Prediction of Interests and Choice Goals in the Computing Disciplines

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lent, Robert W.; Lopez, Antonio M., Jr.; Lopez, Frederick G.; Sheu, Hung-Bin

    2008-01-01

    We tested the fit of the social cognitive choice model [Lent, R.W., Brown, S.D., & Hackett, G. (1994). "Toward a unifying social cognitive theory of career and academic interest, choice, and performance [Monograph]." "Journal of Vocational Behavior," 45, 79-122] to the data across gender, educational level, and type of university among students in…

  16. Mutual Mate Choice: When it Pays Both Sexes to Avoid Inbreeding

    PubMed Central

    Lihoreau, Mathieu; Zimmer, Cédric; Rivault, Colette

    2008-01-01

    Theoretical models of sexual selection predict that both males and females of many species should benefit by selecting their mating partners. However, empirical evidence testing and validating this prediction is scarce. In particular, whereas inbreeding avoidance is expected to induce sexual conflicts, in some cases both partners could benefit by acting in concert and exerting mutual mate choice for non-assortative pairings. We tested this prediction with the gregarious cockroach Blattella germanica (L.). We demonstrated that males and females base their mate choice on different criteria and that choice occurs at different steps during the mating sequence. Males assess their relatedness to females through antennal contacts before deciding to court preferentially non-siblings. Conversely, females biased their choice towards the most vigorously courting males that happened to be non-siblings. This study is the first to demonstrate mutual mate choice leading to close inbreeding avoidance. The fact that outbred pairs were more fertile than inbred pairs strongly supports the adaptive value of this mating system, which includes no “best phenotype” as the quality of two mating partners is primarily linked to their relatedness. We discuss the implications of our results in the light of inbreeding conflict models. PMID:18843373

  17. Mutual mate choice: when it pays both sexes to avoid inbreeding.

    PubMed

    Lihoreau, Mathieu; Zimmer, Cédric; Rivault, Colette

    2008-01-01

    Theoretical models of sexual selection predict that both males and females of many species should benefit by selecting their mating partners. However, empirical evidence testing and validating this prediction is scarce. In particular, whereas inbreeding avoidance is expected to induce sexual conflicts, in some cases both partners could benefit by acting in concert and exerting mutual mate choice for non-assortative pairings. We tested this prediction with the gregarious cockroach Blattella germanica (L.). We demonstrated that males and females base their mate choice on different criteria and that choice occurs at different steps during the mating sequence. Males assess their relatedness to females through antennal contacts before deciding to court preferentially non-siblings. Conversely, females biased their choice towards the most vigorously courting males that happened to be non-siblings. This study is the first to demonstrate mutual mate choice leading to close inbreeding avoidance. The fact that outbred pairs were more fertile than inbred pairs strongly supports the adaptive value of this mating system, which includes no "best phenotype" as the quality of two mating partners is primarily linked to their relatedness. We discuss the implications of our results in the light of inbreeding conflict models.

  18. Free to Choose? Reform, Choice, and Consideration Sets in the English National Health Service.

    PubMed

    Gaynor, Martin; Propper, Carol; Seiler, Stephan

    2016-11-01

    Choice in public services is controversial. We exploit a reform in the English National Health Service to assess the effect of removing constraints on patient choice. We estimate a demand model that explicitly captures the removal of the choice constraints imposed on patients. We find that, post-removal, patients became more responsive to clinical quality. This led to a modest reduction in mortality and a substantial increase in patient welfare. The elasticity of demand faced by hospitals increased substantially post- reform and we find evidence that hospitals responded to the enhanced incentives by improving quality. This suggests greater choice can raise quality.

  19. A framework for understanding and advancing intertemporal choice research using rodent models

    PubMed Central

    Fobbs, Wambura C.; Mizumori, Sheri J. Y.

    2017-01-01

    Intertemporal choices are common and consequential to private and public life. Thus, there is considerable interest in understanding the neural basis of intertemporal decision making. In this minireview, we briefly describe conceptual and psychological perspectives on intertemporal choice and then provide a comprehensive evaluation of the neural structures and signals that comprise the underlying cortico-limbic-striatal circuit. Even though great advances have been made, our understanding of the neurobiology of intertemporal choice is still in its infancy because of the complex and dynamic nature of this form of decision making. We close by briefly discussing recommendations for the future study of intertemporal choice research. PMID:28065715

  20. How General are Risk Preferences? Choices under Uncertainty in Different Domains*

    PubMed Central

    Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Pascu, Iuliana; Cullen, Mark R.

    2011-01-01

    We analyze the extent to which individuals’ choices over five employer-provided insurance coverage decisions and one 401(k) investment decision exhibit systematic patterns, as would be implied by a general utility component of risk preferences. We provide evidence consistent with an important domain-general component that operates across all insurance choices. We find a considerably weaker relationship between one's insurance decisions and 401(k) asset allocation, although this relationship appears larger for more “financially sophisticated” individuals. Estimates from a stylized coverage choice model suggest that up to thirty percent of our sample makes choices that may be consistent across all six domains. PMID:24634517

  1. Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Porfirio, Luciana L.; Harris, Rebecca M. B.; Lefroy, Edward C.; Hugh, Sonia; Gould, Susan F.; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Mackey, Brendan

    2014-01-01

    Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models. PMID:25420020

  2. Integration of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and probabilistic dynamic programming in formulating an optimal fleet management model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teoh, Lay Eng; Khoo, Hooi Ling

    2013-09-01

    This study deals with two major aspects of airlines, i.e. supply and demand management. The aspect of supply focuses on the mathematical formulation of an optimal fleet management model to maximize operational profit of the airlines while the aspect of demand focuses on the incorporation of mode choice modeling as parts of the developed model. The proposed methodology is outlined in two-stage, i.e. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is first adopted to capture mode choice modeling in order to quantify the probability of probable phenomena (for aircraft acquisition/leasing decision). Then, an optimization model is developed as a probabilistic dynamic programming model to determine the optimal number and types of aircraft to be acquired and/or leased in order to meet stochastic demand during the planning horizon. The findings of an illustrative case study show that the proposed methodology is viable. The results demonstrate that the incorporation of mode choice modeling could affect the operational profit and fleet management decision of the airlines at varying degrees.

  3. The Association between Freedom of Choice and Effectiveness of Home Care Services.

    PubMed

    Steffansson, Marina; Pulliainen, Marjo; Kettunen, Aija; Linnosmaa, Ismo; Halonen, Miikka

    2016-03-31

    The aim of this paper is to study home care clients' freedom to choose their services, as well the association between the effectiveness of home care services and freedom of choice, among other factors. A structured postal survey was conducted among regular home care clients (n = 2096) aged 65 or older in three towns in Finland. Freedom of choice was studied based on clients' subjective experiences. The effectiveness of the services was evaluated by means of changes in the social-care-related quality of life. Regression analyses were used to test associations. As much as 62% of home care recipients reported having some choice regarding their services. Choosing meals and visiting times for the care worker were associated with better effectiveness. The basic model, which included needs and other factors expected to have an impact on quality of life, explained 15.4% of the changes in quality of life, while the extended model, which included the freedom-of-choice variables, explained 17.4%. The inclusion of freedom-of-choice variables increased the adjusted coefficient of determination by 2%. There was a significant positive association between freedom of choice and the effectiveness of public home care services. Freedom of choice does not exist for all clients of home care who desire it. By changing social welfare activities and structures, it is possible to show respect for clients' opinions and to thereby improve the effectiveness of home care services.

  4. The Association between Freedom of Choice and Effectiveness of Home Care Services

    PubMed Central

    Pulliainen, Marjo; Kettunen, Aija; Linnosmaa, Ismo; Halonen, Miikka

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this paper is to study home care clients’ freedom to choose their services, as well the association between the effectiveness of home care services and freedom of choice, among other factors. Methods: A structured postal survey was conducted among regular home care clients (n = 2096) aged 65 or older in three towns in Finland. Freedom of choice was studied based on clients’ subjective experiences. The effectiveness of the services was evaluated by means of changes in the social-care-related quality of life. Regression analyses were used to test associations. Results: As much as 62% of home care recipients reported having some choice regarding their services. Choosing meals and visiting times for the care worker were associated with better effectiveness. The basic model, which included needs and other factors expected to have an impact on quality of life, explained 15.4% of the changes in quality of life, while the extended model, which included the freedom-of-choice variables, explained 17.4%. The inclusion of freedom-of-choice variables increased the adjusted coefficient of determination by 2%. There was a significant positive association between freedom of choice and the effectiveness of public home care services. Conclusion: Freedom of choice does not exist for all clients of home care who desire it. By changing social welfare activities and structures, it is possible to show respect for clients’ opinions and to thereby improve the effectiveness of home care services. PMID:27616949

  5. Sources of Inspiration: The role of significant persons in young people's choice of science in higher education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sjaastad, Jørgen

    2012-07-01

    The objectives of this article were to investigate to which extent and in what ways persons influence students' choice of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) in tertiary education, and to assess the suitability of an analytical framework for describing this influence. In total, 5,007 Norwegian STEM students completed a questionnaire including multiple-choice as well as open-ended questions about sources of inspiration for their educational choice. Using the conceptualisation of significant persons suggested by Woelfel and Haller, the respondents' descriptions of parents and teachers are presented in order to elaborate on the different ways these significant persons influence a STEM-related educational choice. Parents engaged in STEM themselves are models, making the choice of STEM familiar, and they help youngsters define themselves through conversation and support, thus being definers. Teachers are models by displaying how STEM might bring fulfilment in someone's life and by giving pupils a positive experience with the subjects. They help young people discover their STEM abilities, thus being definers. Celebrities are reported to have minor influence on STEM-related educational choices. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses indicate that interpersonal relationships are key factors in order to inspire and motivate a choice of STEM education. Implications for recruitment issues and for research on interpersonal influence are discussed. It is suggested that initiatives to increase recruitment to STEM might be aimed at parents and other persons in interpersonal relationships with youth as a target group.

  6. Effort-Related Motivational Effects of the VMAT-2 Inhibitor Tetrabenazine: Implications for Animal Models of the Motivational Symptoms of Depression

    PubMed Central

    Nunes, Eric J.; Randall, Patrick A.; Hart, Evan E.; Freeland, Charlotte; Yohn, Samantha E.; Baqi, Younis; Müller, Christa E.; López-Cruz, Laura; Correa, Mercè

    2013-01-01

    Motivated behaviors are often characterized by a high degree of behavioral activation, and work output and organisms frequently make effort-related decisions based upon cost/benefit analyses. Moreover, people with major depression and other disorders often show effort-related motivational symptoms such as anergia, psychomotor retardation, and fatigue. It has been suggested that tasks measuring effort-related choice behavior could be used as animal models of the motivational symptoms of depression, and the present studies characterized the effort-related effects of the vesicular monoamine transport (VMAT) inhibitor tetrabenazine. Tetrabenazine produces depressive symptoms in humans and, because of its selective inhibition of VMAT-2, it preferentially depletes dopamine (DA). Rats were assessed using a concurrent fixed-ratio 5/chow feeding choice task that is known to be sensitive to dopaminergic manipulations. Tetrabenazine shifted response choice in rats, producing a dose-related decrease in lever pressing and a concomitant increase in chow intake. However, it did not alter food intake or preference in parallel free-feeding choice studies. The effects of tetrabenazine on effort-related choice were reversed by the adenosine A2A antagonist MSX-3 and the antidepressant bupropion. A behaviorally active dose of tetrabenazine decreased extracellular DA in nucleus accumbens and increased expression of DARPP-32 in accumbens medium spiny neurons in a pattern indicative of reduced transmission at both D1 and D2 DA receptors. These experiments demonstrate that tetrabenazine, which is used in animal models to produce depression-like effects, can alter effort-related choice behavior. These studies have implications for the development of animal models of the motivational symptoms of depression and related disorders. PMID:24305809

  7. Women's Values and Preferences for Thromboprophylaxis during Pregnancy: A Comparison of Direct-choice and Decision Analysis using Patient Specific Utilities

    PubMed Central

    Eckman, Mark H.; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Guyatt, Gordon H.; Ebrahim, Shanil; Tikkinen, Kari A.O.; Lopes, Luciane Cruz; Neumann, Ignacio; McDonald, Sarah D.; Zhang, Yuqing; Zhou, Qi; Akl, Elie A.; Jacobsen, Ann Flem; Santamaría, Amparo; Annichino-Bizzacchi, Joyce Maria; Bitar, Wael; Sandset, Per Morten; Bates, Shannon M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Women with a history of venous thromboembolism (VTE) have an increased recurrence risk during pregnancy. Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) reduces this risk, but is costly, burdensome, and may increase risk of bleeding. The decision to start thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy is sensitive to women's values and preferences. Our objective was to compare women's choices using a holistic approach in which they were presented all of the relevant information (direct-choice) versus a personalized decision analysis in which a mathematical model incorporated their preferences and VTE risk to make a treatment recommendation. Methods Multicenter, international study. Structured interviews were on women with a history of VTE who were pregnant, planning, or considering pregnancy. Women indicated their willingness to receive thromboprophylaxis based on scenarios using personalized estimates of VTE recurrence and bleeding risks. We also obtained women's values for health outcomes using a visual analog scale. We performed individualized decision analyses for each participant and compared model recommendations to decisions made when presented with the direct-choice exercise. Results Of the 123 women in the study, the decision model recommended LMWH for 51 women and recommended against LMWH for 72 women. 12% (6/51) of women for whom the decision model recommended thromboprophylaxis chose not to take LMWH; 72% (52/72) of women for whom the decision model recommended against thromboprophylaxis chose LMWH. Conclusions We observed a high degree of discordance between decisions in the direct-choice exercise and decision model recommendations. Although which approach best captures individuals’ true values remains uncertain, personalized decision support tools presenting results based on personalized risks and values may improve decision making. PMID:26033397

  8. Women's values and preferences for thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy: a comparison of direct-choice and decision analysis using patient specific utilities.

    PubMed

    Eckman, Mark H; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Guyatt, Gordon H; Ebrahim, Shanil; Tikkinen, Kari A O; Lopes, Luciane Cruz; Neumann, Ignacio; McDonald, Sarah D; Zhang, Yuqing; Zhou, Qi; Akl, Elie A; Jacobsen, Ann Flem; Santamaría, Amparo; Annichino-Bizzacchi, Joyce Maria; Bitar, Wael; Sandset, Per Morten; Bates, Shannon M

    2015-08-01

    Women with a history of venous thromboembolism (VTE) have an increased recurrence risk during pregnancy. Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) reduces this risk, but is costly, burdensome, and may increase risk of bleeding. The decision to start thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy is sensitive to women's values and preferences. Our objective was to compare women's choices using a holistic approach in which they were presented all of the relevant information (direct-choice) versus a personalized decision analysis in which a mathematical model incorporated their preferences and VTE risk to make a treatment recommendation. Multicenter, international study. Structured interviews were on women with a history of VTE who were pregnant, planning, or considering pregnancy. Women indicated their willingness to receive thromboprophylaxis based on scenarios using personalized estimates of VTE recurrence and bleeding risks. We also obtained women's values for health outcomes using a visual analog scale. We performed individualized decision analyses for each participant and compared model recommendations to decisions made when presented with the direct-choice exercise. Of the 123 women in the study, the decision model recommended LMWH for 51 women and recommended against LMWH for 72 women. 12% (6/51) of women for whom the decision model recommended thromboprophylaxis chose not to take LMWH; 72% (52/72) of women for whom the decision model recommended against thromboprophylaxis chose LMWH. We observed a high degree of discordance between decisions in the direct-choice exercise and decision model recommendations. Although which approach best captures individuals' true values remains uncertain, personalized decision support tools presenting results based on personalized risks and values may improve decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Shared decision making, paternalism and patient choice.

    PubMed

    Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

    2010-03-01

    In patient centred care, shared decision making is a central feature and widely referred to as a norm for patient centred medical consultation. However, it is far from clear how to distinguish SDM from standard models and ideals for medical decision making, such as paternalism and patient choice, and e.g., whether paternalism and patient choice can involve a greater degree of the sort of sharing involved in SDM and still retain their essential features. In the article, different versions of SDM are explored, versions compatible with paternalism and patient choice as well as versions that go beyond these traditional decision making models. Whenever SDM is discussed or introduced it is of importance to be clear over which of these different versions are being pursued, since they connect to basic values and ideals of health care in different ways. It is further argued that we have reason to pursue versions of SDM involving, what is called, a high level dynamics in medical decision-making. This leaves four alternative models to choose between depending on how we balance between the values of patient best interest, patient autonomy, and an effective decision in terms of patient compliance or adherence: Shared Rational Deliberative Patient Choice, Shared Rational Deliberative Paternalism, Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision, and Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise. In relation to these models it is argued that we ideally should use the Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision model. However, when the patient and professional fail to reach consensus we will have reason to pursue the Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise model since this will best harmonise between the different values at stake: patient best interest, patient autonomy, patient adherence and a continued care relationship.

  10. Temporal competition between differentiation programs determines cell fate choice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchina, Anna; Espinar, Lorena; Cagatay, Tolga; Balbin, Alejandro; Alvarado, Alma; Garcia-Ojalvo, Jordi; Suel, Gurol

    2011-03-01

    During pluripotent differentiation, cells adopt one of several distinct fates. The dynamics of this decision-making process are poorly understood, since cell fate choice may be governed by interactions between differentiation programs that are active at the same time. We studied the dynamics of decision-making in the model organism Bacillus subtilis by simultaneously measuring the activities of competing differentiation programs (sporulation and competence) in single cells. We discovered a precise switch-like point of cell fate choice previously hidden by cell-cell variability. Engineered artificial crosslinks between competence and sporulation circuits revealed that the precision of this choice is generated by temporal competition between the key players of two differentiation programs. Modeling suggests that variable progression towards a switch-like decision might represent a general strategy to maximize adaptability and robustness of cellular decision-making.

  11. Demand-driven care and hospital choice. Dutch health policy toward demand-driven care: results from a survey into hospital choice.

    PubMed

    Lako, Christiaan J; Rosenau, Pauline

    2009-03-01

    In the Netherlands, current policy opinion emphasizes demand-driven health care. Central to this model is the view, advocated by some Dutch health policy makers, that patients should be encouraged to be aware of and make use of health quality and health outcomes information in making personal health care provider choices. The success of the new health care system in the Netherlands is premised on this being the case. After a literature review and description of the new Dutch health care system, the adequacy of this demand-driven health policy is tested. The data from a July 2005, self-administered questionnaire survey of 409 patients (response rate of 94%) as to how they choose a hospital are presented. Results indicate that most patients did not choose by actively employing available quality and outcome information. They were, rather, referred by their general practitioner. Hospital choice is highly related to the importance a patient attaches to his or her physician's opinion about a hospital. Some patients indicated that their hospital choice was affected by the reputation of the hospital, by the distance they lived from the hospital, etc. but physician's advice was, by far, the most important factor. Policy consequences are important; the assumptions underlying the demand-driven model of patient health provider choice are inadequate to explain the pattern of observed responses. An alternative, more adequate model is required, one that takes into account the patient's confidence in physician referral and advice.

  12. The response dynamics of preferential choice.

    PubMed

    Koop, Gregory J; Johnson, Joseph G

    2013-12-01

    The ubiquity of psychological process models requires an increased degree of sophistication in the methods and metrics that we use to evaluate them. We contribute to this venture by capitalizing on recent work in cognitive science analyzing response dynamics, which shows that the bearing information processing dynamics have on intended action is also revealed in the motor system. This decidedly "embodied" view suggests that researchers are missing out on potential dependent variables with which to evaluate their models-those associated with the motor response that produces a choice. The current work develops a method for collecting and analyzing such data in the domain of decision making. We first validate this method using widely normed stimuli from the International Affective Picture System (Experiment 1), and demonstrate that curvature in response trajectories provides a metric of the competition between choice options. We next extend the method to risky decision making (Experiment 2) and develop predictions for three popular classes of process model. The data provided by response dynamics demonstrate that choices contrary to the maxim of risk seeking in losses and risk aversion in gains may be the product of at least one "online" preference reversal, and can thus begin to discriminate amongst the candidate models. Finally, we incorporate attentional data collected via eye-tracking (Experiment 3) to develop a formal computational model of joint information sampling and preference accumulation. In sum, we validate response dynamics for use in preferential choice tasks and demonstrate the unique conclusions afforded by response dynamics over and above traditional methods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. In the Opponent's Shoes: Increasing the Behavioral Validity of Attackers' Judgments in Counterterrorism Models.

    PubMed

    Sri Bhashyam, Sumitra; Montibeller, Gilberto

    2016-04-01

    A key objective for policymakers and analysts dealing with terrorist threats is trying to predict the actions that malicious agents may take. A recent trend in counterterrorism risk analysis is to model the terrorists' judgments, as these will guide their choices of such actions. The standard assumptions in most of these models are that terrorists are fully rational, following all the normative desiderata required for rational choices, such as having a set of constant and ordered preferences, being able to perform a cost-benefit analysis of their alternatives, among many others. However, are such assumptions reasonable from a behavioral perspective? In this article, we analyze the types of assumptions made across various counterterrorism analytical models that represent malicious agents' judgments and discuss their suitability from a descriptive point of view. We then suggest how some of these assumptions could be modified to describe terrorists' preferences more accurately, by drawing knowledge from the fields of behavioral decision research, politics, philosophy of choice, public choice, and conflict management in terrorism. Such insight, we hope, might help make the assumptions of these models more behaviorally valid for counterterrorism risk analysis. © 2016 The Authors Wound Repair and Regeneration published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wound Healing Society.

  14. Is more choice always desirable? Evidence and arguments from leks, food selection, and environmental enrichment.

    PubMed

    Hutchinson, John M C

    2005-02-01

    Recent studies on humans show that too much choice can make subjects less likely to choose any item. I consider general adaptive and non-adaptive explanations of why such choice aversion, or its converse, might occur in animals. There are three questions: is more choice always preferred, does it ever lead to less consumption (or a lower probability of consumption), and may it result in worse items being selected ? A preference for choice is one of the main explanations for lek formation and I draw attention to previously unrecognised parallels with models of human shopping behaviour. There is indeed evidence of female preference for larger leks, although much of the observational data are open to other interpretations. Unfortunately nobody has looked for choice aversion where it is most to be expected, in leks larger than normally occur. Evidence that too much choice of males confuses females is strongest in acoustically advertising frogs, but the widespread decrease of mating skew in larger leks might also have this explanation. A model reanalyses data on skew in black grouse Tetrao tetrix and suggests that considering only a random subset of a large lek may increase the chances of selecting the better males: larger leks are more likely to include better males, but these are less likely to be selected. These opposing effects may lead to an optimum lek size, but only with a sufficient decline in choice accuracy with size. With food choice, very few studies have avoided confounding choice with food quality, by manipulating only flavour. The widespread phenomena of stimulus-specific satiety and novelty seeking imply that monotonous diets are aversive, but no studies test whether animals choose sites where they know food diversity to be greater. Operant experiments that demonstrate mild preferences for free choice concern choice about the means to get food rather than the food itself. In some insect species even moderate choice of diet can be deleterious, and studies on search images and the confusion effect may be evidence of this in vertebrates. Environmental enrichment of captive animals often relies on increasing the options available, but it need not be the choice itself that is beneficial. I consider briefly further areas in biology where choice preference or aversion are potentially important.

  15. Efficient implementation of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, with application to the Cormack?Jolly?Seber model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    Judicious choice of candidate generating distributions improves efficiency of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. In Bayesian applications, it is sometimes possible to identify an approximation to the target posterior distribution; this approximate posterior distribution is a good choice for candidate generation. These observations are applied to analysis of the Cormack?Jolly?Seber model and its extensions.

  16. The Fixed-Links Model in Combination with the Polynomial Function as a Tool for Investigating Choice Reaction Time Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schweizer, Karl

    2006-01-01

    A model with fixed relations between manifest and latent variables is presented for investigating choice reaction time data. The numbers for fixation originate from the polynomial function. Two options are considered: the component-based (1 latent variable for each component of the polynomial function) and composite-based options (1 latent…

  17. Have Disability Transfers Caused the Decline in Older Male Labor Force Participation? A Work-Status Rational Choice Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haveman, Robert H.; Wolfe, Barbara L.

    This paper presents a decision-process model for explaining the growth in transfer recipiency (the receipt by working age people of disability income), the choice of work status, and the reduction in labor force participation of older workers. It is hypothesized that the attractiveness of disability income transfer options has led older male…

  18. Modelling the Reasons for Training Choices: Technical Paper. Support Document

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Andrew; Oczkowski, Eddie; Hill, Mark

    2009-01-01

    This report provides the technical details on the modelling aspects of identifying significant drivers for the reasons for using certain types of training and for the choice of training types. The employed data is from the 2005 Survey of Employer Use and Views of the VET system (SEUV). The data has previously been analysed in NCVER (2006). This…

  19. Age-Related Parenting Education: Model Development and Application to an Emerging Family Constellation - Single-by-Choice Mothers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holle, Kimberly Ann

    The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to describe an adaptation of the Schaefer Circumplex Model to age-related parenting theory and techniques, and (2) to illustrate its application in relation to the emerging numbers of single-by-choice mothers. The method described superimposes both a child's and a parent's cognitive and psychosocial…

  20. Acquisition, representation, and transfer of models of visuo-motor error

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Hang; Kulsa, Mila Kirstie C.; Maloney, Laurence T.

    2015-01-01

    We examined how human subjects acquire and represent models of visuo-motor error and how they transfer information about visuo-motor error from one task to a closely related one. The experiment consisted of three phases. In the training phase, subjects threw beanbags underhand towards targets displayed on a wall-mounted touch screen. The distribution of their endpoints was a vertically elongated bivariate Gaussian. In the subsequent choice phase, subjects repeatedly chose which of two targets varying in shape and size they would prefer to attempt to hit. Their choices allowed us to investigate their internal models of visuo-motor error distribution, including the coordinate system in which they represented visuo-motor error. In the transfer phase, subjects repeated the choice phase from a different vantage point, the same distance from the screen but with the throwing direction shifted 45°. From the new vantage point, visuo-motor error was effectively expanded horizontally by . We found that subjects incorrectly assumed an isotropic distribution in the choice phase but that the anisotropy they assumed in the transfer phase agreed with an objectively correct transfer. We also found that the coordinate system used in coding two-dimensional visuo-motor error in the choice phase was effectively one-dimensional. PMID:26057549

  1. Choice and privatisation in Swedish primary care.

    PubMed

    Anell, Anders

    2011-10-01

    In 2007, a new wave of local reforms involving choice for the population and privatisation of providers was initiated in Swedish primary care. Important objectives behind reforms were to strengthen the role of primary care and to improve performance in terms of access and responsiveness. The purpose of this article was to compare the characteristics of the new models and to discuss changes in financial incentives for providers and challenges regarding governance from the part of county councils. A majority of the models being introduced across the 21 county councils can best be described as innovative combinations between a comprehensive responsibility for providers and significant degrees of freedom regarding choice for the population. Key financial characteristics of fixed payment and comprehensive financial responsibility for providers may create financial incentives to under-provide care. Informed choices by the population, in combination with reasonably low barriers for providers to enter the primary care market, should theoretically counterbalance such incentives. To facilitate such competition is indeed a challenge, not only because of difficulties in implementing informed choices but also because the new models favour large and/or horizontally integrated providers. To prevent monopolistic behaviour, county councils may have to accept more competition as well as more governance over clinical practice than initially intended.

  2. Relationship between Attitude towards Technical Education and Academic Achievement in Mathematics and Science of the First and Second Year High School Students, Caritas Don Bosco School, SY 2002-2003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magno, Carlo

    2003-01-01

    Background: This study made use of the "Model of Academic Choice" by Meece et al. (1982). It is a general model of academic choice, expectation and value of attitude leading to achievement. The model links achievement with constructs of expectation of success on a task and the subjective value of the task influencing the attitude of…

  3. Impact of modeling Choices on Inventory and In-Cask Criticality Calculations for Forsmark 3 BWR Spent Fuel

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Martinez-Gonzalez, Jesus S.; Ade, Brian J.; Bowman, Stephen M.

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel depletion poses a challenge for nuclide inventory validation and nuclear criticality safety analyses. This challenge is due to the complex operating conditions and assembly design heterogeneities that characterize these nuclear systems. Fuel depletion simulations and in-cask criticality calculations are affected by (1) completeness of design information, (2) variability of operating conditions needed for modeling purposes, and (3) possible modeling choices. These effects must be identified, quantified, and ranked according to their significance. This paper presents an investigation of BWR fuel depletion using a complete set of actual design specifications and detailed operational datamore » available for five operating cycles of the Swedish BWR Forsmark 3 reactor. The data includes detailed axial profiles of power, burnup, and void fraction in a very fine temporal mesh for a GE14 (10×10) fuel assembly. The specifications of this case can be used to assess the impacts of different modeling choices on inventory prediction and in-cask criticality, specifically regarding the key parameters that drive inventory and reactivity throughout fuel burnup. This study focused on the effects of the fidelity with which power history and void fraction distributions are modeled. The corresponding sensitivity of the reactivity in storage configurations is assessed, and the impacts of modeling choices on decay heat and inventory are addressed.« less

  4. CD-SEM metrology and OPC modeling for 2D patterning in advanced technology nodes (Conference Presentation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallow, Thomas I.; Zhang, Chen; Fumar-Pici, Anita; Chen, Jun; Laenens, Bart; Spence, Christopher A.; Rio, David; van Adrichem, Paul; Dillen, Harm; Wang, Jing; Yang, Peng-Cheng; Gillijns, Werner; Jaenen, Patrick; van Roey, Frieda; van de Kerkhove, Jeroen; Babin, Sergey

    2017-03-01

    In the course of assessing OPC compact modeling capabilities and future requirements, we chose to investigate the interface between CD-SEM metrology methods and OPC modeling in some detail. Two linked observations motivated our study: 1) OPC modeling is, in principle, agnostic of metrology methods and best practice implementation. 2) Metrology teams across the industry use a wide variety of equipment, hardware settings, and image/data analysis methods to generate the large volumes of CD-SEM measurement data that are required for OPC in advanced technology nodes. Initial analyses led to the conclusion that many independent best practice metrology choices based on systematic study as well as accumulated institutional knowledge and experience can be reasonably made. Furthermore, these choices can result in substantial variations in measurement of otherwise identical model calibration and verification patterns. We will describe several experimental 2D test cases (i.e., metal, via/cut layers) that examine how systematic changes in metrology practice impact both the metrology data itself and the resulting full chip compact model behavior. Assessment of specific methodology choices will include: • CD-SEM hardware configurations and settings: these may range from SEM beam conditions (voltage, current, etc.,) to magnification, to frame integration optimizations that balance signal-to-noise vs. resist damage. • Image and measurement optimization: these may include choice of smoothing filters for noise suppression, threshold settings, etc. • Pattern measurement methodologies: these may include sampling strategies, CD- and contour- based approaches, and various strategies to optimize the measurement of complex 2D shapes. In addition, we will present conceptual frameworks and experimental methods that allow practitioners of OPC metrology to assess impacts of metrology best practice choices on model behavior. Finally, we will also assess requirements posed by node scaling on OPC model accuracy, and evaluate potential consequences for CD-SEM metrology capabilities and practices.

  5. Meal patterns, satiety, and food choice in a rat model of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Huiyuan; Shin, Andrew C; Lenard, Natalie R; Townsend, R Leigh; Patterson, Laurel M; Sigalet, David L; Berthoud, Hans-Rudolf

    2009-11-01

    Gastric bypass surgery efficiently and lastingly reduces excess body weight and reverses type 2 diabetes in obese patients. Although increased energy expenditure may also play a role, decreased energy intake is thought to be the main reason for weight loss, but the mechanisms involved are poorly understood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to characterize the changes in ingestive behavior in a rat model of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB). Obese (24% body fat compared with 18% in chow-fed controls), male Sprague-Dawley rats maintained for 15 wk before and 4 mo after RYGB or sham-surgery on a two-choice low-fat/high-fat diet, were subjected to a series of tests assessing energy intake, meal patterning, and food choice. Although sham-operated rats gained an additional 100 g body wt during the postoperative period, RYGB rats lost approximately 100 g. Intake of a nutritionally complete and palatable liquid diet (Ensure) was significantly reduced by approximately 50% during the first 2 wk after RYGB compared with sham surgery. Decreased intake was the result of greatly reduced meal size with only partial compensation by meal frequency, and a corresponding increase in the satiety ratio. Similar results were obtained with solid food (regular or high-fat chow) 6 wk after surgery. In 12- to 24-h two-choice liquid or solid diet paradigms with nutritionally complete low- and high-fat diets, RYGB rats preferred the low-fat choice (solid) or showed decreased acceptance for the high-fat choice (liquid), whereas sham-operated rats preferred the high-fat choices. A separate group of rats offered chow only before surgery completely avoided the solid high-fat diet in a choice paradigm. The results confirm anecdotal reports of "nibbling" behavior and fat avoidance in RYGB patients and provide a basis for more mechanistic studies in this rat model.

  6. Eliciting regret improves decision making at the end of life.

    PubMed

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Mhaskar, Rahul; Hozo, Iztok; Miladinovic, Branko; Tuch, Howard

    2016-11-01

    Management choices at the end of life are high-stake decisions fraught with emotions, chief among is regret. Our objective in this paper is to test the utility of a regret-based model to facilitate referral to hospice care while helping patients clarify their preferences on how they wish to spend the remaining days of their lives. A prospective cohort study that enrolled consecutive adult patients (n = 178) aware of the terminal nature of their disease. The patients were at the point in care where they had to decide between continuing potentially 'curative/life-prolonging' treatment (Rx) versus hospice care. Preferences were elicited using a Dual Visual Analog Scale regarding the level of regret of omission versus commission (RgO/RgC) towards hospice care and Rx. Each patient's RgO/RgC was contrasted against the predictive probability of death to suggest a management plan, which was then compared with the patient's actual choice. The probability of death was estimated using validated Palliative Performance Scale predictive model. Eighty-five percent (151/178) of patients agreed with the model's recommendations (p < 0.000001). Model predicted the actual choices for 72% (128/178) of patients (p < 0.00001). Logistic regression analysis showed that people who were initially inclined to be referred to hospice and were predicted to choose hospice over disease-directed treatment by the regret model have close to 98% probability of choosing hospice care at the end of their lives. No other factors (age, gender, race, educational status and pain level) affected their choice. Using regret to elicit choices in the end-of-life setting is both descriptively and prescriptively valid. People with terminal disease who are initially inclined to choose hospice and do not regret such a choice will select hospice care with high level of certainty. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Hold it! The influence of lingering rewards on choice diversification and persistence.

    PubMed

    Schulze, Christin; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Newell, Ben R

    2017-11-01

    Learning to choose adaptively when faced with uncertain and variable outcomes is a central challenge for decision makers. This study examines repeated choice in dynamic probability learning tasks in which outcome probabilities changed either as a function of the choices participants made or independently of those choices. This presence/absence of sequential choice-outcome dependencies was implemented by manipulating a single task aspect between conditions: the retention/withdrawal of reward across individual choice trials. The study addresses how people adapt to these learning environments and to what extent they engage in 2 choice strategies often contrasted as paradigmatic examples of striking violation of versus nominal adherence to rational choice: diversification and persistent probability maximizing, respectively. Results show that decisions approached adaptive choice diversification and persistence when sufficient feedback was provided on the dynamic rules of the probabilistic environments. The findings of divergent behavior in the 2 environments indicate that diversified choices represented a response to the reward retention manipulation rather than to the mere variability of outcome probabilities. Choice in both environments was well accounted for by the generalized matching law, and computational modeling-based strategy analyses indicated that adaptive choice arose mainly from reliance on reinforcement learning strategies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. State-dependent decisions cause apparent violations of rationality in animal choice.

    PubMed

    Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Pompilio, Lorena; Kacelnik, Alex

    2004-12-01

    Normative models of choice in economics and biology usually expect preferences to be consistent across contexts, or "rational" in economic language. Following a large body of literature reporting economically irrational behaviour in humans, breaches of rationality by animals have also been recently described. If proven systematic, these findings would challenge long-standing biological approaches to behavioural theorising, and suggest that cognitive processes similar to those claimed to cause irrationality in humans can also hinder optimality approaches to modelling animal preferences. Critical differences between human and animal experiments have not, however, been sufficiently acknowledged. While humans can be instructed conceptually about the choice problem, animals need to be trained by repeated exposure to all contingencies. This exposure often leads to differences in state between treatments, hence changing choices while preserving rationality. We report experiments with European starlings demonstrating that apparent breaches of rationality can result from state-dependence. We show that adding an inferior alternative to a choice set (a "decoy") affects choices, an effect previously interpreted as indicating irrationality. However, these effects appear and disappear depending on whether state differences between choice contexts are present or not. These results open the possibility that some expressions of maladaptive behaviour are due to oversights in the migration of ideas between economics and biology, and suggest that key differences between human and nonhuman research must be recognised if ideas are to safely travel between these fields.

  9. Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas

    PubMed Central

    Ellis, Randall P.; Fernandez, Juan Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    Interest has grown worldwide in risk adjustment and risk sharing due to their potential to contain costs, improve fairness, and reduce selection problems in health care markets. Significant steps have been made in the empirical development of risk adjustment models, and in the theoretical foundations of risk adjustment and risk sharing. This literature has often modeled the effects of risk adjustment without highlighting the institutional setting, regulations, and diverse selection problems that risk adjustment is intended to fix. Perhaps because of this, the existing literature and their recommendations for optimal risk adjustment or optimal payment systems are sometimes confusing. In this paper, we present a unified way of thinking about the organizational structure of health care systems, which enables us to focus on two key dimensions of markets that have received less attention: what choices are available that may lead to selection problems, and what financial or regulatory tools other than risk adjustment are used to influence these choices. We specifically examine the health care systems, choices, and problems in four countries: the US, Canada, Chile, and Colombia, and examine the relationship between selection-related efficiency and fairness problems and the choices that are allowed in each country, and discuss recent regulatory reforms that affect choices and selection problems. In this sample, countries and insurance programs with more choices have more selection problems. PMID:24284351

  10. Classification image analysis: estimation and statistical inference for two-alternative forced-choice experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abbey, Craig K.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

    2002-01-01

    We consider estimation and statistical hypothesis testing on classification images obtained from the two-alternative forced-choice experimental paradigm. We begin with a probabilistic model of task performance for simple forced-choice detection and discrimination tasks. Particular attention is paid to general linear filter models because these models lead to a direct interpretation of the classification image as an estimate of the filter weights. We then describe an estimation procedure for obtaining classification images from observer data. A number of statistical tests are presented for testing various hypotheses from classification images based on some more compact set of features derived from them. As an example of how the methods we describe can be used, we present a case study investigating detection of a Gaussian bump profile.

  11. How does consumer knowledge affect environmentally sustainable choices? Evidence from a cross-country latent class analysis of food labels.

    PubMed

    Peschel, Anne O; Grebitus, Carola; Steiner, Bodo; Veeman, Michele

    2016-11-01

    This paper examines consumers' knowledge and lifestyle profiles and preferences regarding two environmentally labeled food staples, potatoes and ground beef. Data from online choice experiments conducted in Canada and Germany are analyzed through latent class choice modeling to identify the influence of consumer knowledge (subjective and objective knowledge as well as usage experience) on environmentally sustainable choices. We find that irrespective of product or country under investigation, high subjective and objective knowledge levels drive environmentally sustainable food choices. Subjective knowledge was found to be more important in this context. Usage experience had relatively little impact on environmentally sustainable choices. Our results suggest that about 20% of consumers in both countries are ready to adopt footprint labels in their food choices. Another 10-20% could be targeted by enhancing subjective knowledge, for example through targeted marketing campaigns. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Own-Choice Marriage and Fertility in Turkey

    PubMed Central

    Weinreb, Alexander A.

    2016-01-01

    Goode’s foundational work on the fertility transition identified own-choice marriage as a factor driving fertility decline, part of a widening repertoire of choice pertaining to marriage and childbearing. Yet research supporting this connection in today’s transitional societies is scarce and somewhat contradictory, and it is unclear how other marital traditions, such as consanguineous marriage, shape this relationship. This study evaluates Goode’s theorized connection using pooled Demographic and Health Survey data from Turkey, comparing children ever born, use of contraception, and parity progression across four types of marriage: own-choice and arranged marriage; and marriage to a cousin versus an unrelated spouse. Results are largely consistent with the idea that a move towards own-choice marriage reflects a widening repertoire of choice that also leads to fertility decline. However, they also show that hybrid models like own-choice marriage to a cousin tempers these effects. PMID:28316343

  13. Estimating the executive demands of a one-back choice reaction time task by means of the selective interference paradigm.

    PubMed

    Szmalec, Arnaud; Vandierendonck, André

    2007-08-01

    The present study proposes a new executive task, the one-back choice reaction time (RT) task, and implements the selective interference paradigm to estimate the executive demands of the processing components involved in this task. Based on the similarities between a one-back choice RT task and the n-back updating task, it was hypothesized that one-back delaying of a choice reaction involves executive control. In three experiments, framed within Baddeley's (1986) working-memory model, a one-back choice RT task, a choice RT task, articulatory suppression, and matrix tapping were performed concurrently with primary tasks involving verbal, visuospatial, and executive processing. The results demonstrate that one-back delaying of a choice reaction interferes with tasks requiring executive control, while the potential interference at the level of the verbal or visuospatial working memory slave systems remains minimal.

  14. Effects of fictive reward on rat's choice behavior

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Ko-Un; Huh, Namjung; Jang, Yunsil; Lee, Daeyeol; Jung, Min Whan

    2015-01-01

    Choices of humans and non-human primates are influenced by both actually experienced and fictive outcomes. To test whether this is also the case in rodents, we examined rat's choice behavior in a binary choice task in which variable magnitudes of actual and fictive rewards were delivered. We found that the animal's choice was significantly influenced by the magnitudes of both actual and fictive rewards in the previous trial. A model-based analysis revealed, however, that the effect of fictive reward was more transient and influenced mostly the choice in the next trial, whereas the effect of actual reward was more sustained, consistent with incremental learning of action values. Our results suggest that the capacity to modify future choices based on fictive outcomes might be shared by many different animal species, but fictive outcomes are less effective than actual outcomes in the incremental value learning system. PMID:25623929

  15. Dynamics of memory-guided choice behavior in Drosophila

    PubMed Central

    ICHINOSE, Toshiharu; TANIMOTO, Hiromu

    2016-01-01

    Memory retrieval requires both accuracy and speed. Olfactory learning of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster serves as a powerful model system to identify molecular and neuronal substrates of memory and memory-guided behavior. The behavioral expression of olfactory memory has traditionally been tested as a conditioned odor response in a simple T-maze, which measures the result, but not the speed, of odor choice. Here, we developed multiplexed T-mazes that allow video recording of the choice behavior. Automatic fly counting in each arm of the maze visualizes choice dynamics. Using this setup, we show that the transient blockade of serotonergic neurons slows down the choice, while leaving the eventual choice intact. In contrast, activation of the same neurons impairs the eventual performance leaving the choice speed unchanged. Our new apparatus contributes to elucidating how the speed and the accuracy of memory retrieval are implemented in the fly brain. PMID:27725473

  16. Own-Choice Marriage and Fertility in Turkey.

    PubMed

    Manglos-Weber, Nicolette D; Weinreb, Alexander A

    2017-04-01

    Goode's foundational work on the fertility transition identified own-choice marriage as a factor driving fertility decline, part of a widening repertoire of choice pertaining to marriage and childbearing. Yet research supporting this connection in today's transitional societies is scarce and somewhat contradictory, and it is unclear how other marital traditions, such as consanguineous marriage, shape this relationship. This study evaluates Goode's theorized connection using pooled Demographic and Health Survey data from Turkey, comparing children ever born, use of contraception, and parity progression across four types of marriage: own-choice and arranged marriage; and marriage to a cousin versus an unrelated spouse. Results are largely consistent with the idea that a move towards own-choice marriage reflects a widening repertoire of choice that also leads to fertility decline. However, they also show that hybrid models like own-choice marriage to a cousin tempers these effects.

  17. A Scalar Product Model for the Multidimensional Scaling of Choice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bechtel, Gordon G.; And Others

    1971-01-01

    Contains a solution for the multidimensional scaling of pairwise choice when individuals are represented as dimensional weights. The analysis supplies an exact least squares solution and estimates of group unscalability parameters. (DG)

  18. The role of presumed probability density functions in the simulation of nonpremixed turbulent combustion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coclite, A.; Pascazio, G.; De Palma, P.; Cutrone, L.

    2016-07-01

    Flamelet-Progress-Variable (FPV) combustion models allow the evaluation of all thermochemical quantities in a reacting flow by computing only the mixture fraction Z and a progress variable C. When using such a method to predict turbulent combustion in conjunction with a turbulence model, a probability density function (PDF) is required to evaluate statistical averages (e. g., Favre averages) of chemical quantities. The choice of the PDF is a compromise between computational costs and accuracy level. The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of the PDF choice and its modeling aspects to predict turbulent combustion. Three different models are considered: the standard one, based on the choice of a β-distribution for Z and a Dirac-distribution for C; a model employing a β-distribution for both Z and C; and the third model obtained using a β-distribution for Z and the statistically most likely distribution (SMLD) for C. The standard model, although widely used, does not take into account the interaction between turbulence and chemical kinetics as well as the dependence of the progress variable not only on its mean but also on its variance. The SMLD approach establishes a systematic framework to incorporate informations from an arbitrary number of moments, thus providing an improvement over conventionally employed presumed PDF closure models. The rational behind the choice of the three PDFs is described in some details and the prediction capability of the corresponding models is tested vs. well-known test cases, namely, the Sandia flames, and H2-air supersonic combustion.

  19. A sensitivity study of the effects of evaporation/condensation accommodation coefficients on transient heat pipe modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, Michael L.; Doster, J. Michael

    1990-03-01

    The dynamic behavior of liquid metal heat pipe models is strongly influenced by the choice of evaporation and condensation modeling techniques. Classic kinetic theory descriptions of the evaporation and condensation processes are often inadequate for real situations; empirical accommodation coefficients are commonly utilized to reflect nonideal mass transfer rates. The complex geometries and flow fields found in proposed heat pipe systems cause considerable deviation from the classical models. the THROHPUT code, which has been described in previous works, was developed to model transient liquid metal heat pipe behavior from frozen startup conditions to steady state full power operation. It is used here to evaluate the sensitivity of transient liquid metal heat pipe models to the choice of evaporation and condensation accommodation coefficients. Comparisons are made with experimental liquid metal heat pipe data. It is found that heat pipe behavior can be predicted with the proper choice of the accommodation coefficients. However, the common assumption of spatially constant accommodation coefficients is found to be a limiting factor in the model.

  20. Bayesian prediction of placebo analgesia in an instrumental learning model

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Won-Mo; Lee, Ye-Seul; Wallraven, Christian; Chae, Younbyoung

    2017-01-01

    Placebo analgesia can be primarily explained by the Pavlovian conditioning paradigm in which a passively applied cue becomes associated with less pain. In contrast, instrumental conditioning employs an active paradigm that might be more similar to clinical settings. In the present study, an instrumental conditioning paradigm involving a modified trust game in a simulated clinical situation was used to induce placebo analgesia. Additionally, Bayesian modeling was applied to predict the placebo responses of individuals based on their choices. Twenty-four participants engaged in a medical trust game in which decisions to receive treatment from either a doctor (more effective with high cost) or a pharmacy (less effective with low cost) were made after receiving a reference pain stimulus. In the conditioning session, the participants received lower levels of pain following both choices, while high pain stimuli were administered in the test session even after making the decision. The choice-dependent pain in the conditioning session was modulated in terms of both intensity and uncertainty. Participants reported significantly less pain when they chose the doctor or the pharmacy for treatment compared to the control trials. The predicted pain ratings based on Bayesian modeling showed significant correlations with the actual reports from participants for both of the choice categories. The instrumental conditioning paradigm allowed for the active choice of optional cues and was able to induce the placebo analgesia effect. Additionally, Bayesian modeling successfully predicted pain ratings in a simulated clinical situation that fits well with placebo analgesia induced by instrumental conditioning. PMID:28225816

  1. Quality and provider choice: a multinomial logit-least-squares model with selectivity.

    PubMed Central

    Haas-Wilson, D; Savoca, E

    1990-01-01

    A Federal Trade Commission survey of contact lens wearers is used to estimate a multinomial logit-least-squares model of the joint determination of provider choice and quality of care in the contact lens industry. The effect of personal and industry characteristics on a consumer's choice among three types of providers--opticians, ophthalmologists, and optometrists--is estimated via multinomial logit. The regression model of the quality of care has two features that distinguish it from previous work in the area. First, it uses an outcome rather than a structural or process measure of quality. Quality is measured as an index of the presence of seven potentially pathological eye conditions caused by poorly fitted lenses. Second, the model controls for possible selection bias that may arise from the fact that the sample observations on quality are generated by consumers' nonrandom choices of providers. The multinomial logit estimates of provider choice indicate that professional regulations limiting the commercial practices of optometrists shift demand for contact lens services away from optometrists toward ophthalmologists. Further, consumers are more likely to have their lenses fitted by opticians in states that require the licensing of opticians. The regression analysis of variations in quality across provider types shows a strong positive selection bias in the estimate of the quality of care received by consumers of ophthalmologists' services. Failure to control for this selection bias results in an overestimate of the quality of care provided by ophthalmologists. PMID:2312308

  2. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    PubMed Central

    Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Gutjar, Swetlana; ter Horst, Gert J.; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J.; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores. PMID:25521352

  3. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    PubMed

    Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  4. Bringing free will down to Earth: people's psychological concept of free will and its role in moral judgment.

    PubMed

    Monroe, Andrew E; Dillon, Kyle D; Malle, Bertram F

    2014-07-01

    Belief in free will is widespread, and this belief is supposed to undergird moral and legal judgment. Despite the importance of the free will concept, however, there remains widespread confusion regarding its definition and its connection to blame. We address this confusion by testing two prominent models of the folk concept of free will-a metaphysical model, in which free will involves a soul as an uncaused "first mover," and a psychological model, in which free will involves choice, alignment with desires, and lack of constraints. We test the predictions of these two models by creating agents that vary in their capacity for choice and the presence of a soul. In two studies, people's judgments of free will and blame for these agents show little to no basis in ascriptions of a soul but are powerfully predicted by ascriptions of choice capacity. These results support a psychological model of the folk concept of free will. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Quantified choice of root-mean-square errors of approximation for evaluation and power analysis of small differences between structural equation models.

    PubMed

    Li, Libo; Bentler, Peter M

    2011-06-01

    MacCallum, Browne, and Cai (2006) proposed a new framework for evaluation and power analysis of small differences between nested structural equation models (SEMs). In their framework, the null and alternative hypotheses for testing a small difference in fit and its related power analyses were defined by some chosen root-mean-square error of approximation (RMSEA) pairs. In this article, we develop a new method that quantifies those chosen RMSEA pairs and allows a quantitative comparison of them. Our method proposes the use of single RMSEA values to replace the choice of RMSEA pairs for model comparison and power analysis, thus avoiding the differential meaning of the chosen RMSEA pairs inherent in the approach of MacCallum et al. (2006). With this choice, the conventional cutoff values in model overall evaluation can directly be transferred and applied to the evaluation and power analysis of model differences. © 2011 American Psychological Association

  6. Making choices impairs subsequent self-control: a limited-resource account of decision making, self-regulation, and active initiative.

    PubMed

    Vohs, Kathleen D; Baumeister, Roy F; Schmeichel, Brandon J; Twenge, Jean M; Nelson, Noelle M; Tice, Dianne M

    2008-05-01

    The current research tested the hypothesis that making many choices impairs subsequent self-control. Drawing from a limited-resource model of self-regulation and executive function, the authors hypothesized that decision making depletes the same resource used for self-control and active responding. In 4 laboratory studies, some participants made choices among consumer goods or college course options, whereas others thought about the same options without making choices. Making choices led to reduced self-control (i.e., less physical stamina, reduced persistence in the face of failure, more procrastination, and less quality and quantity of arithmetic calculations). A field study then found that reduced self-control was predicted by shoppers' self-reported degree of previous active decision making. Further studies suggested that choosing is more depleting than merely deliberating and forming preferences about options and more depleting than implementing choices made by someone else and that anticipating the choice task as enjoyable can reduce the depleting effect for the first choices but not for many choices. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

  7. On the development of a semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model for travel-related choices

    PubMed Central

    Ye, Xin; Pendyala, Ram M.; Zou, Yajie

    2017-01-01

    A semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model, formulated using orthonormal Legendre polynomials to extend the standard Gumbel distribution, is presented in this paper. The resulting semi-nonparametric function can represent a probability density function for a large family of multimodal distributions. The model has a closed-form log-likelihood function that facilitates model estimation. The proposed method is applied to model commute mode choice among four alternatives (auto, transit, bicycle and walk) using travel behavior data from Argau, Switzerland. Comparisons between the multinomial logit model and the proposed semi-nonparametric model show that violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption lead to considerable inconsistency in parameter estimates and model inferences. PMID:29073152

  8. On the development of a semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model for travel-related choices.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ke; Ye, Xin; Pendyala, Ram M; Zou, Yajie

    2017-01-01

    A semi-nonparametric generalized multinomial logit model, formulated using orthonormal Legendre polynomials to extend the standard Gumbel distribution, is presented in this paper. The resulting semi-nonparametric function can represent a probability density function for a large family of multimodal distributions. The model has a closed-form log-likelihood function that facilitates model estimation. The proposed method is applied to model commute mode choice among four alternatives (auto, transit, bicycle and walk) using travel behavior data from Argau, Switzerland. Comparisons between the multinomial logit model and the proposed semi-nonparametric model show that violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption lead to considerable inconsistency in parameter estimates and model inferences.

  9. Stochastic Technology Choice Model for Consequential Life Cycle Assessment.

    PubMed

    Kätelhön, Arne; Bardow, André; Suh, Sangwon

    2016-12-06

    Discussions on Consequential Life Cycle Assessment (CLCA) have relied largely on partial or general equilibrium models. Such models are useful for integrating market effects into CLCA, but also have well-recognized limitations such as the poor granularity of the sectoral definition and the assumption of perfect oversight by all economic agents. Building on the Rectangular-Choice-of-Technology (RCOT) model, this study proposes a new modeling approach for CLCA, the Technology Choice Model (TCM). In this approach, the RCOT model is adapted for its use in CLCA and extended to incorporate parameter uncertainties and suboptimal decisions due to market imperfections and information asymmetry in a stochastic setting. In a case study on rice production, we demonstrate that the proposed approach allows modeling of complex production technology mixes and their expected environmental outcomes under uncertainty, at a high level of detail. Incorporating the effect of production constraints, uncertainty, and suboptimal decisions by economic agents significantly affects technology mixes and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the system under study. The case study also shows the model's ability to determine both the average and marginal environmental impacts of a product in response to changes in the quantity of final demand.

  10. Location contexts of user check-ins to model urban geo life-style patterns.

    PubMed

    Hasan, Samiul; Ukkusuri, Satish V

    2015-01-01

    Geo-location data from social media offers us information, in new ways, to understand people's attitudes and interests through their activity choices. In this paper, we explore the idea of inferring individual life-style patterns from activity-location choices revealed in social media. We present a model to understand life-style patterns using the contextual information (e. g. location categories) of user check-ins. Probabilistic topic models are developed to infer individual geo life-style patterns from two perspectives: i) to characterize the patterns of user interests to different types of places and ii) to characterize the patterns of user visits to different neighborhoods. The method is applied to a dataset of Foursquare check-ins of the users from New York City. The co-existence of several location contexts and the corresponding probabilities in a given pattern provide useful information about user interests and choices. It is found that geo life-style patterns have similar items-either nearby neighborhoods or similar location categories. The semantic and geographic proximity of the items in a pattern reflects the hidden regularity in user preferences and location choice behavior.

  11. Discrete choice modeling of season choice for Minnesota turkey hunters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.; Cornicelli, Louis; Merchant, Steven S.

    2018-01-01

    Recreational turkey hunting exemplifies the interdisciplinary nature of modern wildlife management. Turkey populations in Minnesota have reached social or biological carrying capacities in many areas, and changes to turkey hunting regulations have been proposed by stakeholders and wildlife managers. This study employed discrete stated choice modeling to enhance understanding of turkey hunter preferences about regulatory alternatives. We distributed mail surveys to 2,500 resident turkey hunters. Results suggest that, compared to season structure and lotteries, additional permits and level of potential interference from other hunters most influenced hunter preferences for regulatory alternatives. Low hunter interference was preferred to moderate or high interference. A second permit issued only to unsuccessful hunters was preferred to no second permit or permits for all hunters. Results suggest that utility is not strictly defined by harvest or an individual's material gain but can involve preference for other outcomes that on the surface do not materially benefit an individual. Discrete stated choice modeling offers wildlife managers an effective way to assess constituent preferences related to new regulations before implementing them. 

  12. Using Distractor-Driven Standards-Based Multiple-Choice Assessments and Rasch Modeling to Investigate Hierarchies of Chemistry Misconceptions and Detect Structural Problems with Individual Items

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herrmann-Abell, Cari F.; DeBoer, George E.

    2011-01-01

    Distractor-driven multiple-choice assessment items and Rasch modeling were used as diagnostic tools to investigate students' understanding of middle school chemistry ideas. Ninety-one items were developed according to a procedure that ensured content alignment to the targeted standards and construct validity. The items were administered to 13360…

  13. Quantum probability, choice in large worlds, and the statistical structure of reality.

    PubMed

    Ross, Don; Ladyman, James

    2013-06-01

    Classical probability models of incentive response are inadequate in "large worlds," where the dimensions of relative risk and the dimensions of similarity in outcome comparisons typically differ. Quantum probability models for choice in large worlds may be motivated pragmatically - there is no third theory - or metaphysically: statistical processing in the brain adapts to the true scale-relative structure of the universe.

  14. A Research Brief: A Novel Characteristic of Role Model Choice by Black Male College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bennett, B. J.; Davis, R.; Harris, A.; Brown, K.; Wood, P.; Jones, D. R.; Spencer, S.; Nelson, L.; Brown, J.; Waddell, T.; Jones, C. B.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the present research brief is to report a novel characteristic of role model choice that may be unreported in the literature for black males and to assess this finding in relation to perceived attractiveness of self and a member of the opposite sex. The study found that the proportion of males choosing themselves as their own role…

  15. Testing Transitivity of Preferences on Two-Alternative Forced Choice Data

    PubMed Central

    Regenwetter, Michel; Dana, Jason; Davis-Stober, Clintin P.

    2010-01-01

    As Duncan Luce and other prominent scholars have pointed out on several occasions, testing algebraic models against empirical data raises difficult conceptual, mathematical, and statistical challenges. Empirical data often result from statistical sampling processes, whereas algebraic theories are nonprobabilistic. Many probabilistic specifications lead to statistical boundary problems and are subject to nontrivial order constrained statistical inference. The present paper discusses Luce's challenge for a particularly prominent axiom: Transitivity. The axiom of transitivity is a central component in many algebraic theories of preference and choice. We offer the currently most complete solution to the challenge in the case of transitivity of binary preference on the theory side and two-alternative forced choice on the empirical side, explicitly for up to five, and implicitly for up to seven, choice alternatives. We also discuss the relationship between our proposed solution and weak stochastic transitivity. We recommend to abandon the latter as a model of transitive individual preferences. PMID:21833217

  16. Evidence integration in model-based tree search

    PubMed Central

    Solway, Alec; Botvinick, Matthew M.

    2015-01-01

    Research on the dynamics of reward-based, goal-directed decision making has largely focused on simple choice, where participants decide among a set of unitary, mutually exclusive options. Recent work suggests that the deliberation process underlying simple choice can be understood in terms of evidence integration: Noisy evidence in favor of each option accrues over time, until the evidence in favor of one option is significantly greater than the rest. However, real-life decisions often involve not one, but several steps of action, requiring a consideration of cumulative rewards and a sensitivity to recursive decision structure. We present results from two experiments that leveraged techniques previously applied to simple choice to shed light on the deliberation process underlying multistep choice. We interpret the results from these experiments in terms of a new computational model, which extends the evidence accumulation perspective to multiple steps of action. PMID:26324932

  17. Developing multiple-choices test items as tools for measuring the scientific-generic skills on solar system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhakti, Satria Seto; Samsudin, Achmad; Chandra, Didi Teguh; Siahaan, Parsaoran

    2017-05-01

    The aim of research is developing multiple-choices test items as tools for measuring the scientific of generic skills on solar system. To achieve the aim that the researchers used the ADDIE model consisting Of: Analyzing, Design, Development, Implementation, dan Evaluation, all of this as a method research. While The scientific of generic skills limited research to five indicator including: (1) indirect observation, (2) awareness of the scale, (3) inference logic, (4) a causal relation, and (5) mathematical modeling. The participants are 32 students at one of junior high schools in Bandung. The result shown that multiple-choices that are constructed test items have been declared valid by the expert validator, and after the tests show that the matter of developing multiple-choices test items be able to measuring the scientific of generic skills on solar system.

  18. Managing Disease Risks from Trade: Strategic Behavior with Many Choices and Price Effects.

    PubMed

    Chitchumnong, Piyayut; Horan, Richard D

    2018-03-16

    An individual's infectious disease risks, and hence the individual's incentives for risk mitigation, may be influenced by others' risk management choices. If so, then there will be strategic interactions among individuals, whereby each makes his or her own risk management decisions based, at least in part, on the expected decisions of others. Prior work has shown that multiple equilibria could arise in this setting, with one equilibrium being a coordination failure in which individuals make too few investments in protection. However, these results are largely based on simplified models involving a single management choice and fixed prices that may influence risk management incentives. Relaxing these assumptions, we find strategic interactions influence, and are influenced by, choices involving multiple management options and market price effects. In particular, we find these features can reduce or eliminate concerns about multiple equilibria and coordination failure. This has important policy implications relative to simpler models.

  19. Public reporting in health care: how do consumers use quality-of-care information? A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Faber, Marjan; Bosch, Marije; Wollersheim, Hub; Leatherman, Sheila; Grol, Richard

    2009-01-01

    One of the underlying goals of public reporting is to encourage the consumer to select health care providers or health plans that offer comparatively better quality-of-care. To review the weight consumers give to quality-of-care information in the process of choice, to summarize the effect of presentation formats, and to examine the impact of quality information on consumers' choice behavior. The evidence is organized in a theoretical consumer choice model. English language literature was searched in PubMed, the Cochrane Clinical Trial, and the EPOC Databases (January 1990-January 2008). Study selection was limited to randomized controlled trails, controlled before-after trials or interrupted time series. Included interventions focused on choice behavior of consumers in health care settings. Outcome measures referred to one of the steps in a consumer choice model. The quality of the study design was rated, and studies with low quality ratings were excluded. All 14 included studies examine quality information, usually CAHPS, with respect to its impact on the consumer's choice of health plans. Easy-to-read presentation formats and explanatory messages improve knowledge about and attitude towards the use of quality information; however, the weight given to quality information depends on other features, including free provider choice and costs. In real-world settings, having seen quality information is a strong determinant for choosing higher quality-rated health plans. This review contributes to an understanding of consumer choice behavior in health care settings. The small number of included studies limits the strength of our conclusions.

  20. Search, Memory, and Choice Error: An Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Sanjurjo, Adam

    2015-01-01

    Multiple attribute search is a central feature of economic life: we consider much more than price when purchasing a home, and more than wage when choosing a job. An experiment is conducted in order to explore the effects of cognitive limitations on choice in these rich settings, in accordance with the predictions of a new model of search memory load. In each task, subjects are made to search the same information in one of two orders, which differ in predicted memory load. Despite standard models of choice treating such variations in order of acquisition as irrelevant, lower predicted memory load search orders are found to lead to substantially fewer choice errors. An implication of the result for search behavior, more generally, is that in order to reduce memory load (thus choice error) a limited memory searcher ought to deviate from the search path of an unlimited memory searcher in predictable ways-a mechanism that can explain the systematic deviations from optimal sequential search that have recently been discovered in peoples' behavior. Further, as cognitive load is induced endogenously (within the task), and found to affect choice behavior, this result contributes to the cognitive load literature (in which load is induced exogenously), as well as the cognitive ability literature (in which cognitive ability is measured in a separate task). In addition, while the information overload literature has focused on the detrimental effects of the quantity of information on choice, this result suggests that, holding quantity constant, the order that information is observed in is an essential determinant of choice failure. PMID:26121356

  1. Personal food systems of male collegiate football players: a grounded theory investigation.

    PubMed

    Long, Doug; Perry, Christina; Unruh, Scott A; Lewis, Nancy; Stanek-Krogstrand, Kaye

    2011-01-01

    Factors that affect food choices include the physical and social environments, quality, quantity, perceived healthfulness, and convenience. The personal food choice process was defined as the procedures used by athletes for making food choices, including the weighing and balancing of activities of daily life, physical well-being, convenience, monetary resources, and social relationships. To develop a theoretical model explaining the personal food choice processes of collegiate football players. Qualitative study. National Collegiate Athletic Association Division II football program. Fifteen football players were purposefully sampled to represent various positions, years of athletic eligibility, and ethnic backgrounds. For text data collection, we used predetermined, open-ended questions. Data were analyzed using the constant comparison method. The athletes' words were used to label and describe their interactions and experiences with the food choice process. Member checks and an external audit were conducted by a qualitative methodologist and a nutrition specialist, and the findings were triangulated with the current literature to ensure trustworthiness of the text data. Time was the core category and yielded a cyclic graphic of a theoretical model for the food choice system. Planning hydration, macronutrient strategies, snacks, and healthful food choices emerged as themes. The athletes planned meals and snacks around their academic and athletic schedules while attempting to consume foods identified as healthful. Healthful foods were generally lower in fat but high in preferred macronutrients. High-protein foods were the players' primary goal; carbohydrate consumption was secondary. The athletes had established plans to maintain hydration. Professionals may use these findings to implement educational programs on food choices for football players.

  2. The Environment Makes a Difference: The Impact of Explicit and Implicit Attitudes as Precursors in Different Food Choice Tasks

    PubMed Central

    König, Laura M.; Giese, Helge; Schupp, Harald T.; Renner, Britta

    2016-01-01

    Studies show that implicit and explicit attitudes influence food choice. However, precursors of food choice often are investigated using tasks offering a very limited number of options despite the comparably complex environment surrounding real life food choice. In the present study, we investigated how the assortment impacts the relationship between implicit and explicit attitudes and food choice (confectionery and fruit), assuming that a more complex choice architecture is more taxing on cognitive resources. Specifically, a binary and a multiple option choice task based on the same stimulus set (fake food items) were presented to ninety-seven participants. Path modeling revealed that both explicit and implicit attitudes were associated with relative food choice (confectionery vs. fruit) in both tasks. In the binary option choice task, both explicit and implicit attitudes were significant precursors of food choice, with explicit attitudes having a greater impact. Conversely, in the multiple option choice task, the additive impact of explicit and implicit attitudes was qualified by an interaction indicating that, even if explicit and implicit attitudes toward confectionery were inconsistent, more confectionery was chosen than fruit if either was positive. This compensatory ‘one is sufficient’-effect indicates that the structure of the choice environment modulates the relationship between attitudes and choice. The study highlights that environmental constraints, such as the number of choice options, are an important boundary condition that need to be included when investigating the relationship between psychological precursors and behavior. PMID:27621719

  3. The Environment Makes a Difference: The Impact of Explicit and Implicit Attitudes as Precursors in Different Food Choice Tasks.

    PubMed

    König, Laura M; Giese, Helge; Schupp, Harald T; Renner, Britta

    2016-01-01

    Studies show that implicit and explicit attitudes influence food choice. However, precursors of food choice often are investigated using tasks offering a very limited number of options despite the comparably complex environment surrounding real life food choice. In the present study, we investigated how the assortment impacts the relationship between implicit and explicit attitudes and food choice (confectionery and fruit), assuming that a more complex choice architecture is more taxing on cognitive resources. Specifically, a binary and a multiple option choice task based on the same stimulus set (fake food items) were presented to ninety-seven participants. Path modeling revealed that both explicit and implicit attitudes were associated with relative food choice (confectionery vs. fruit) in both tasks. In the binary option choice task, both explicit and implicit attitudes were significant precursors of food choice, with explicit attitudes having a greater impact. Conversely, in the multiple option choice task, the additive impact of explicit and implicit attitudes was qualified by an interaction indicating that, even if explicit and implicit attitudes toward confectionery were inconsistent, more confectionery was chosen than fruit if either was positive. This compensatory 'one is sufficient'-effect indicates that the structure of the choice environment modulates the relationship between attitudes and choice. The study highlights that environmental constraints, such as the number of choice options, are an important boundary condition that need to be included when investigating the relationship between psychological precursors and behavior.

  4. A Simplified Model of Choice Behavior under Uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Ching-Hung; Lin, Yu-Kai; Song, Tzu-Jiun; Huang, Jong-Tsun; Chiu, Yao-Chu

    2016-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated that models with the prospect utility (PU) function are more effective than the EU models in the IGT (Ahn et al., 2008). Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests based on our behavioral dataset and modeling, it was determined that the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results. This study aims to modify the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model to a simplified model and used the IGT performance of 145 subjects as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly as the value of α approached zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ, and A in the PU model. Notably, the influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical power structure in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there are other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic-uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found yet. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated. PMID:27582715

  5. Dealing with the health state 'dead' when using discrete choice experiments to obtain values for EQ-5D-5L heath states.

    PubMed

    Ramos-Goñi, Juan Manuel; Rivero-Arias, Oliver; Errea, María; Stolk, Elly A; Herdman, Michael; Cabasés, Juan Manuel

    2013-07-01

    To evaluate two different methods to obtain a dead (0)--full health (1) scale for EQ-5D-5L valuation studies when using discrete choice (DC) modeling. The study was carried out among 400 respondents from Barcelona who were representative of the Spanish population in terms of age, sex, and level of education. The DC design included 50 pairs of health states in five blocks. Participants were forced to choose between two EQ-5D-5L states (A and B). Two extra questions concerned whether A and B were considered worse than dead. Each participant performed ten choice exercises. In addition, values were collected using lead-time trade-off (lead-time TTO), for which 100 states in ten blocks were selected. Each participant performed five lead-time TTO exercises. These consisted of DC models offering the health state 'dead' as one of the choices--for which all participants' responses were used (DCdead)--and a model that included only the responses of participants who chose at least one state as worse than dead (WTD) (DCWTD). The study also estimated DC models rescaled with lead-time TTO data and a lead-time TTO linear model. The DC(dead) and DCWTD models produced relatively similar results, although the coefficients in the DCdead model were slightly lower. The DC model rescaled with lead-time TTO data produced higher utility decrements. Lead-time TTO produced the highest utility decrements. The incorporation of the state 'dead' in the DC models produces results in concordance with DC models that do not include 'dead'.

  6. Lost in the crowd? Using eye-tracking to investigate the effect of complexity on attribute non-attendance in discrete choice experiments.

    PubMed

    Spinks, Jean; Mortimer, Duncan

    2016-02-03

    The provision of additional information is often assumed to improve consumption decisions, allowing consumers to more accurately weigh the costs and benefits of alternatives. However, increasing the complexity of decision problems may prompt changes in information processing. This is particularly relevant for experimental methods such as discrete choice experiments (DCEs) where the researcher can manipulate the complexity of the decision problem. The primary aims of this study are (i) to test whether consumers actually process additional information in an already complex decision problem, and (ii) consider the implications of any such 'complexity-driven' changes in information processing for design and analysis of DCEs. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is used to simulate a complex decision problem; here, the choice between complementary and conventional medicine for different health conditions. Eye-tracking technology is used to capture the number of times and the duration that a participant looks at any part of a computer screen during completion of DCE choice sets. From this we can analyse what has become known in the DCE literature as 'attribute non-attendance' (ANA). Using data from 32 participants, we model the likelihood of ANA as a function of choice set complexity and respondent characteristics using fixed and random effects models to account for repeated choice set completion. We also model whether participants are consistent with regard to which characteristics (attributes) they consider across choice sets. We find that complexity is the strongest predictor of ANA when other possible influences, such as time pressure, ordering effects, survey specific effects and socio-demographic variables (including proxies for prior experience with the decision problem) are considered. We also find that most participants do not apply a consistent information processing strategy across choice sets. Eye-tracking technology shows promise as a way of obtaining additional information from consumer research, improving DCE design, and informing the design of policy measures. With regards to DCE design, results from the present study suggest that eye-tracking data can identify the point at which adding complexity (and realism) to DCE choice scenarios becomes self-defeating due to unacceptable increases in ANA. Eye-tracking data therefore has clear application in the construction of guidelines for DCE design and during piloting of DCE choice scenarios. With regards to design of policy measures such as labelling requirements for CAM and conventional medicines, the provision of additional information has the potential to make difficult decisions even harder and may not have the desired effect on decision-making.

  7. Neural Signatures of Value Comparison in Human Cingulate Cortex during Decisions Requiring an Effort-Reward Trade-off

    PubMed Central

    Kennerley, Steven W.; Friston, Karl; Bestmann, Sven

    2016-01-01

    Integrating costs and benefits is crucial for optimal decision-making. Although much is known about decisions that involve outcome-related costs (e.g., delay, risk), many of our choices are attached to actions and require an evaluation of the associated motor costs. Yet how the brain incorporates motor costs into choices remains largely unclear. We used human fMRI during choices involving monetary reward and physical effort to identify brain regions that serve as a choice comparator for effort-reward trade-offs. By independently varying both options' effort and reward levels, we were able to identify the neural signature of a comparator mechanism. A network involving supplementary motor area and the caudal portion of dorsal anterior cingulate cortex encoded the difference in reward (positively) and effort levels (negatively) between chosen and unchosen choice options. We next modeled effort-discounted subjective values using a novel behavioral model. This revealed that the same network of regions involving dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and supplementary motor area encoded the difference between the chosen and unchosen options' subjective values, and that activity was best described using a concave model of effort-discounting. In addition, this signal reflected how precisely value determined participants' choices. By contrast, separate signals in supplementary motor area and ventromedial prefrontal cortex correlated with participants' tendency to avoid effort and seek reward, respectively. This suggests that the critical neural signature of decision-making for choices involving motor costs is found in human cingulate cortex and not ventromedial prefrontal cortex as typically reported for outcome-based choice. Furthermore, distinct frontal circuits seem to drive behavior toward reward maximization and effort minimization. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The neural processes that govern the trade-off between expected benefits and motor costs remain largely unknown. This is striking because energetic requirements play an integral role in our day-to-day choices and instrumental behavior, and a diminished willingness to exert effort is a characteristic feature of a range of neurological disorders. We use a new behavioral characterization of how humans trade off reward maximization with effort minimization to examine the neural signatures that underpin such choices, using BOLD MRI neuroimaging data. We find the critical neural signature of decision-making, a signal that reflects the comparison of value between choice options, in human cingulate cortex, whereas two distinct brain circuits drive behavior toward reward maximization or effort minimization. PMID:27683898

  8. Neural Signatures of Value Comparison in Human Cingulate Cortex during Decisions Requiring an Effort-Reward Trade-off.

    PubMed

    Klein-Flügge, Miriam C; Kennerley, Steven W; Friston, Karl; Bestmann, Sven

    2016-09-28

    Integrating costs and benefits is crucial for optimal decision-making. Although much is known about decisions that involve outcome-related costs (e.g., delay, risk), many of our choices are attached to actions and require an evaluation of the associated motor costs. Yet how the brain incorporates motor costs into choices remains largely unclear. We used human fMRI during choices involving monetary reward and physical effort to identify brain regions that serve as a choice comparator for effort-reward trade-offs. By independently varying both options' effort and reward levels, we were able to identify the neural signature of a comparator mechanism. A network involving supplementary motor area and the caudal portion of dorsal anterior cingulate cortex encoded the difference in reward (positively) and effort levels (negatively) between chosen and unchosen choice options. We next modeled effort-discounted subjective values using a novel behavioral model. This revealed that the same network of regions involving dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and supplementary motor area encoded the difference between the chosen and unchosen options' subjective values, and that activity was best described using a concave model of effort-discounting. In addition, this signal reflected how precisely value determined participants' choices. By contrast, separate signals in supplementary motor area and ventromedial prefrontal cortex correlated with participants' tendency to avoid effort and seek reward, respectively. This suggests that the critical neural signature of decision-making for choices involving motor costs is found in human cingulate cortex and not ventromedial prefrontal cortex as typically reported for outcome-based choice. Furthermore, distinct frontal circuits seem to drive behavior toward reward maximization and effort minimization. The neural processes that govern the trade-off between expected benefits and motor costs remain largely unknown. This is striking because energetic requirements play an integral role in our day-to-day choices and instrumental behavior, and a diminished willingness to exert effort is a characteristic feature of a range of neurological disorders. We use a new behavioral characterization of how humans trade off reward maximization with effort minimization to examine the neural signatures that underpin such choices, using BOLD MRI neuroimaging data. We find the critical neural signature of decision-making, a signal that reflects the comparison of value between choice options, in human cingulate cortex, whereas two distinct brain circuits drive behavior toward reward maximization or effort minimization. Copyright © 2016 Klein-Flügge et al.

  9. A framework for estimating health state utility values within a discrete choice experiment: modeling risky choices.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Angela; Spencer, Anne; Moffatt, Peter

    2015-04-01

    There has been recent interest in using the discrete choice experiment (DCE) method to derive health state utilities for use in quality-adjusted life year (QALY) calculations, but challenges remain. We set out to develop a risk-based DCE approach to derive utility values for health states that allowed 1) utility values to be anchored directly to normal health and death and 2) worse than dead health states to be assessed in the same manner as better than dead states. Furthermore, we set out to estimate alternative models of risky choice within a DCE model. A survey was designed that incorporated a risk-based DCE and a "modified" standard gamble (SG). Health state utility values were elicited for 3 EQ-5D health states assuming "standard" expected utility (EU) preferences. The DCE model was then generalized to allow for rank-dependent expected utility (RDU) preferences, thereby allowing for probability weighting. A convenience sample of 60 students was recruited and data collected in small groups. Under the assumption of "standard" EU preferences, the utility values derived within the DCE corresponded fairly closely to the mean results from the modified SG. Under the assumption of RDU preferences, the utility values estimated are somewhat lower than under the assumption of standard EU, suggesting that the latter may be biased upward. Applying the correct model of risky choice is important whether a modified SG or a risk-based DCE is deployed. It is, however, possible to estimate a probability weighting function within a DCE and estimate "unbiased" utility values directly, which is not possible within a modified SG. We conclude by setting out the relative strengths and weaknesses of the 2 approaches in this context. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups.

    PubMed

    van der Harst, Eugenie; Potting, José; Kroeze, Carolien

    2014-10-01

    This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as waste processing options, and for the PLA and biopaper cup also composting and anaerobic digestion. Multiple data sets and modelling choices were systematically used to calculate average results and the spread in results for each disposable cup in eleven impact categories. The LCA results of all combinations of data sets and modelling choices consistently identify three processes that dominate the environmental impact: (1) production of the cup's basic material (PS, PLA, biopaper), (2) cup manufacturing, and (3) waste processing. The large spread in results for impact categories strongly overlaps among the cups, however, and therefore does not allow a preference for one type of cup material. Comparison of the individual waste treatment options suggests some cautious preferences. The average waste treatment results indicate that recycling is the preferred option for PLA cups, followed by anaerobic digestion and incineration. Recycling is slightly preferred over incineration for the biopaper cups. There is no preferred waste treatment option for the PS cups. Taking into account the spread in waste treatment results for all cups, however, none of these preferences for waste processing options can be justified. The only exception is composting, which is least preferred for both PLA and biopaper cups. Our study illustrates that using multiple data sets and modelling choices can lead to considerable spread in LCA results. This makes comparing products more complex, but the outcomes more robust. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. How do the methodological choices of your climate change study affect your results? A hydrologic case study across the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Rupp, D. E.; Kao, S. C.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    We describe results from a large hydrologic climate change dataset developed across the Pacific Northwestern United States and discuss how the analysis of those results can be seen as a framework for other large hydrologic ensemble investigations. This investigation will better inform future modeling efforts and large ensemble analyses across domains within and beyond the Pacific Northwest. Using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we provide projections of hydrologic change for the domain through the end of the 21st century. The dataset is based upon permutations of four methodological choices: (1) ten global climate models (2) two representative concentration pathways (3) three meteorological downscaling methods and (4) four unique hydrologic model set-ups (three of which entail the same hydrologic model using independently calibrated parameter sets). All simulations were conducted across the Columbia River Basin and Pacific coastal drainages at a 1/16th ( 6 km) resolution and at a daily timestep. In total, the 172 distinct simulations offer an updated, comprehensive view of climate change projections through the end of the 21st century. The results consist of routed streamflow at 400 sites throughout the domain as well as distributed spatial fields of relevant hydrologic variables like snow water equivalent and soil moisture. In this presentation, we discuss the level of agreement with previous hydrologic projections for the study area and how these projections differ with specific methodological choices. By controlling for some methodological choices we can show how each choice affects key climatic change metrics. We discuss how the spread in results varies across hydroclimatic regimes. We will use this large dataset as a case study for distilling a wide range of hydroclimatological projections into useful climate change assessments.

  12. Monte Carlo Study Elucidates the Type 1/Type 2 Choice in Apoptotic Death Signaling in Healthy and Cancer Cells

    PubMed Central

    Raychaudhuri, Subhadip; Raychaudhuri, Somkanya C

    2013-01-01

    Apoptotic cell death is coordinated through two distinct (type 1 and type 2) intracellular signaling pathways. How the type 1/type 2 choice is made remains a central problem in the biology of apoptosis and has implications for apoptosis related diseases and therapy. We study the problem of type 1/type 2 choice in silico utilizing a kinetic Monte Carlo model of cell death signaling. Our results show that the type 1/type 2 choice is linked to deterministic versus stochastic cell death activation, elucidating a unique regulatory control of the apoptotic pathways. Consistent with previous findings, our results indicate that caspase 8 activation level is a key regulator of the choice between deterministic type 1 and stochastic type 2 pathways, irrespective of cell types. Expression levels of signaling molecules downstream also regulate the type 1/type 2 choice. A simplified model of DISC clustering elucidates the mechanism of increased active caspase 8 generation and type 1 activation in cancer cells having increased sensitivity to death receptor activation. We demonstrate that rapid deterministic activation of the type 1 pathway can selectively target such cancer cells, especially if XIAP is also inhibited; while inherent cell-to-cell variability would allow normal cells stay protected. PMID:24709706

  13. The influence of ethical values and food choice motivations on intentions to purchase sustainably sourced foods.

    PubMed

    Dowd, Kylie; Burke, Karena J

    2013-10-01

    This study examined a three-step adaptation of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) applied to the intention of consumers to purchase sustainably sourced food. The sample consisted of 137 participants, of which 109 were female, who were recruited through a farmers market and an organic produce outlet in an Australian capital city. Participants completed an online questionnaire containing the TPB scales of attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioural control and intention; measures of positive moral attitude and ethical self identity; and food choice motives. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to examine the predictive utility of the TPB in isolation (step 1) and the TPB expanded to include the constructs of moral attitude and ethical self-identity (step 2). The results indicated the expansion of the TPB to include these constructs added significantly to the predictive model measuring intention to purchase sustainably sourced food. The third step in the adaptation utilised this expanded TPB model and added a measure of retail channel (where consumers reported buying fresh produce) and 9 food choice motives, in order to assess the predictive utility of the inclusion of choice motivations in this context. Of the 8 food choice motives examined, only health and ethical values significantly predicted intention to purchase sustainably sourced food. However, with the addition of food choice motives, ethical self-identity was no longer a significant predictor of intention to purchase sustainably sourced food. Overall the adapted TPB model explained 76% of the variance in intention to purchase sustainably sourced food. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning.

    PubMed

    Urata, Junji; Pel, Adam J

    2018-05-01

    Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Pupil-linked arousal is driven by decision uncertainty and alters serial choice bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urai, Anne E.; Braun, Anke; Donner, Tobias H.

    2017-03-01

    While judging their sensory environments, decision-makers seem to use the uncertainty about their choices to guide adjustments of their subsequent behaviour. One possible source of these behavioural adjustments is arousal: decision uncertainty might drive the brain's arousal systems, which control global brain state and might thereby shape subsequent decision-making. Here, we measure pupil diameter, a proxy for central arousal state, in human observers performing a perceptual choice task of varying difficulty. Pupil dilation, after choice but before external feedback, reflects three hallmark signatures of decision uncertainty derived from a computational model. This increase in pupil-linked arousal boosts observers' tendency to alternate their choice on the subsequent trial. We conclude that decision uncertainty drives rapid changes in pupil-linked arousal state, which shape the serial correlation structure of ongoing choice behaviour.

  16. Analyzing Multiple-Choice Questions by Model Analysis and Item Response Curves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wattanakasiwich, P.; Ananta, S.

    2010-07-01

    In physics education research, the main goal is to improve physics teaching so that most students understand physics conceptually and be able to apply concepts in solving problems. Therefore many multiple-choice instruments were developed to probe students' conceptual understanding in various topics. Two techniques including model analysis and item response curves were used to analyze students' responses from Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation (FMCE). For this study FMCE data from more than 1000 students at Chiang Mai University were collected over the past three years. With model analysis, we can obtain students' alternative knowledge and the probabilities for students to use such knowledge in a range of equivalent contexts. The model analysis consists of two algorithms—concentration factor and model estimation. This paper only presents results from using the model estimation algorithm to obtain a model plot. The plot helps to identify a class model state whether it is in the misconception region or not. Item response curve (IRC) derived from item response theory is a plot between percentages of students selecting a particular choice versus their total score. Pros and cons of both techniques are compared and discussed.

  17. Maximum likelihood: Extracting unbiased information from complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garlaschelli, Diego; Loffredo, Maria I.

    2008-07-01

    The choice of free parameters in network models is subjective, since it depends on what topological properties are being monitored. However, we show that the maximum likelihood (ML) principle indicates a unique, statistically rigorous parameter choice, associated with a well-defined topological feature. We then find that, if the ML condition is incompatible with the built-in parameter choice, network models turn out to be intrinsically ill defined or biased. To overcome this problem, we construct a class of safely unbiased models. We also propose an extension of these results that leads to the fascinating possibility to extract, only from topological data, the “hidden variables” underlying network organization, making them “no longer hidden.” We test our method on World Trade Web data, where we recover the empirical gross domestic product using only topological information.

  18. The Pitman-Yor Process and an Empirical Study of Choice Behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hisakado, Masato; Sano, Fumiaki; Mori, Shintaro

    2018-02-01

    This study discusses choice behavior using a voting model in which voters can obtain information from a finite number of previous r voters. Voters vote for a candidate with a probability proportional to the previous vote ratio, which is visible to the voters. We obtain the Pitman sampling formula as the equilibrium distribution of r votes. We present the model as a process of posting on a bulletin board system, 2ch.net, where users can choose one of many threads to create a post. We explore how this choice depends on the last r posts and the distribution of these last r posts across threads. We conclude that the posting process is described by our voting model with analog herders for a small r, which might correspond to the time horizon of users' responses.

  19. Improving Transferability of Introduced Species’ Distribution Models: New Tools to Forecast the Spread of a Highly Invasive Seaweed

    PubMed Central

    Verbruggen, Heroen; Tyberghein, Lennert; Belton, Gareth S.; Mineur, Frederic; Jueterbock, Alexander; Hoarau, Galice; Gurgel, C. Frederico D.; De Clerck, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    The utility of species distribution models for applications in invasion and global change biology is critically dependent on their transferability between regions or points in time, respectively. We introduce two methods that aim to improve the transferability of presence-only models: density-based occurrence thinning and performance-based predictor selection. We evaluate the effect of these methods along with the impact of the choice of model complexity and geographic background on the transferability of a species distribution model between geographic regions. Our multifactorial experiment focuses on the notorious invasive seaweed Caulerpacylindracea (previously Caulerpa racemosa var. cylindracea ) and uses Maxent, a commonly used presence-only modeling technique. We show that model transferability is markedly improved by appropriate predictor selection, with occurrence thinning, model complexity and background choice having relatively minor effects. The data shows that, if available, occurrence records from the native and invaded regions should be combined as this leads to models with high predictive power while reducing the sensitivity to choices made in the modeling process. The inferred distribution model of Caulerpacylindracea shows the potential for this species to further spread along the coasts of Western Europe, western Africa and the south coast of Australia. PMID:23950789

  20. Variability in Dopamine Genes Dissociates Model-Based and Model-Free Reinforcement Learning

    PubMed Central

    Bath, Kevin G.; Daw, Nathaniel D.; Frank, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that multiple learning systems can drive behavior. Choice can proceed reflexively from previous actions and their associated outcomes, as captured by “model-free” learning algorithms, or flexibly from prospective consideration of outcomes that might occur, as captured by “model-based” learning algorithms. However, differential contributions of dopamine to these systems are poorly understood. Dopamine is widely thought to support model-free learning by modulating plasticity in striatum. Model-based learning may also be affected by these striatal effects, or by other dopaminergic effects elsewhere, notably on prefrontal working memory function. Indeed, prominent demonstrations linking striatal dopamine to putatively model-free learning did not rule out model-based effects, whereas other studies have reported dopaminergic modulation of verifiably model-based learning, but without distinguishing a prefrontal versus striatal locus. To clarify the relationships between dopamine, neural systems, and learning strategies, we combine a genetic association approach in humans with two well-studied reinforcement learning tasks: one isolating model-based from model-free behavior and the other sensitive to key aspects of striatal plasticity. Prefrontal function was indexed by a polymorphism in the COMT gene, differences of which reflect dopamine levels in the prefrontal cortex. This polymorphism has been associated with differences in prefrontal activity and working memory. Striatal function was indexed by a gene coding for DARPP-32, which is densely expressed in the striatum where it is necessary for synaptic plasticity. We found evidence for our hypothesis that variations in prefrontal dopamine relate to model-based learning, whereas variations in striatal dopamine function relate to model-free learning. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Decisions can stem reflexively from their previously associated outcomes or flexibly from deliberative consideration of potential choice outcomes. Research implicates a dopamine-dependent striatal learning mechanism in the former type of choice. Although recent work has indicated that dopamine is also involved in flexible, goal-directed decision-making, it remains unclear whether it also contributes via striatum or via the dopamine-dependent working memory function of prefrontal cortex. We examined genetic indices of dopamine function in these regions and their relation to the two choice strategies. We found that striatal dopamine function related most clearly to the reflexive strategy, as previously shown, and that prefrontal dopamine related most clearly to the flexible strategy. These findings suggest that dissociable brain regions support dissociable choice strategies. PMID:26818509

  1. The Effects of industrial workers' food choice attribute on sugar intake pattern and job satisfaction with Structural Equcation Model

    PubMed Central

    Park, Young Il

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES This research analyzes the effects of the food choices of industrial workers according to their sugar intake pattern on their job satisfaction through the construction of a model on the relationship between sugar intake pattern and job satisfaction. SUBJECTS/METHODS Surveys were collected from May to July 2015. A statistical analysis of the 775 surveys from Kyungsangnam-do was conducted using SPSS13.0 for Windows and SEM was performed using the AMOS 5.0 statistics package. RESULTS The reliability of the data was confirmed by an exploratory factor analysis through a Cronbach's alpha coefficient, and the measurement model was proven to be appropriate by a confirmatory factor analysis in conjunction with AMOS. The results of factor analysis on food choice, sugar intake pattern and job satisfaction were categorized into five categories. The reliability of these findings was supported by a Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.6 and higher for all factors except confection (0.516) and dairy products (0.570). The multicollinearity results did not indicate a problem between the variables since the highest correlation coefficient was 0.494 (P < 0.01). In an attempt to study the sugar intake pattern in accordance with the food choices and job satisfaction of industrial workers, a structural equation model was constructed and analyzed. CONCLUSIONS All tests confirmed that the model satisfied the recommended levels for the goodness of fit index, and thus, the overall research model was proven to be appropriate. PMID:27478555

  2. Study of the viscosity of hydrocarbon mixtures under pressure and temperature: A critical model of the corresponding states to double reference in the modeling domain.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ettahir, Aziz; Boned, Christian; Lagourette, Bernard; Kettani, Kamal; Amarrayi, Khaoula; Garoumi, Mohammed

    2017-10-01

    The studied predictive model of behavior viscosimetric is the model of K.A. Petersen [1]. The dominant idea of this method is to characterize the viscosity of a fluid from two models taken as a reference in passing through a reduced pressure. The method is corresponding state with two references. This study shows that this method is dependent on the choice of reference and for each of the possibilities of C10/C6H6 and C1/C10 references . The results were investigated for four different weight ratios. It shows that the introduction of an adjusted coefficient does not improve significantly compared to results without adjustment factor, which appears to be the best choice. Regarding the influence of the choice of references, generally the two couples appear suitable but we noted that the choice is not necessary. In the case of mixtures containing at least one aromatic, the results are correct, especially if one takes the ratio of adjustment and our ratio without adjustment compared to that of K. A. PETERSEN[1]. The experimental results of the viscosity exhibit a good agreement with the calculated values. We can predict that the relative improvement is the finding that the introduction of the second body of reference (C10) from the model states corresponding to a reference (C1) of the authors.

  3. Early Design Choices: Capture, Model, Integrate, Analyze, Simulate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.

    2004-01-01

    I. Designs are constructed incrementally to meet requirements and solve problems: a) Requirements types: objectives, scenarios, constraints, ilities. etc. b) Problem/issue types: risk/safety, cost/difficulty, interaction, conflict, etc. II. Capture requirements, problems and solutions: a) Collect design and analysis products and make them accessible for integration and analysis; b) Link changes in design requirements, problems and solutions; and c) Harvest design data for design models and choice structures. III. System designs are constructed by multiple groups designing interacting subsystems a) Diverse problems, choice criteria, analysis methods and point solutions. IV. Support integration and global analysis of repercussions: a) System implications of point solutions; b) Broad analysis of interactions beyond totals of mass, cost, etc.

  4. Influence of branding on preference-based decision making.

    PubMed

    Philiastides, Marios G; Ratcliff, Roger

    2013-07-01

    Branding has become one of the most important determinants of consumer choices. Intriguingly, the psychological mechanisms of how branding influences decision making remain elusive. In the research reported here, we used a preference-based decision-making task and computational modeling to identify which internal components of processing are affected by branding. We found that a process of noisy temporal integration of subjective value information can model preference-based choices reliably and that branding biases are explained by changes in the rate of the integration process itself. This result suggests that branding information and subjective preference are integrated into a single source of evidence in the decision-making process, thereby altering choice behavior.

  5. Discrete Choice Model of Food Store Trips Using National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS).

    PubMed

    Hillier, Amy; Smith, Tony E; Whiteman, Eliza D; Chrisinger, Benjamin W

    2017-09-27

    Where households across income levels shop for food is of central concern within a growing body of research focused on where people live relative to where they shop, what they purchase and eat, and how those choices influence the risk of obesity and chronic disease. We analyzed data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS) using a conditional logit model to determine where participants shop for food to be prepared and eaten at home and how individual and household characteristics of food shoppers interact with store characteristics and distance from home in determining store choice. Store size, whether or not it was a full-service supermarket, and the driving distance from home to the store constituted the three significant main effects on store choice. Overall, participants were more likely to choose larger stores, conventional supermarkets rather than super-centers and other types of stores, and stores closer to home. Interaction effects show that participants receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) were even more likely to choose larger stores. Hispanic participants were more likely than non-Hispanics to choose full-service supermarkets while White participants were more likely to travel further than non-Whites. This study demonstrates the value of explicitly spatial discrete choice models and provides evidence of national trends consistent with previous smaller, local studies.

  6. Discrete Choice Model of Food Store Trips Using National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS)

    PubMed Central

    Hillier, Amy; Smith, Tony E.; Whiteman, Eliza D.

    2017-01-01

    Where households across income levels shop for food is of central concern within a growing body of research focused on where people live relative to where they shop, what they purchase and eat, and how those choices influence the risk of obesity and chronic disease. We analyzed data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS) using a conditional logit model to determine where participants shop for food to be prepared and eaten at home and how individual and household characteristics of food shoppers interact with store characteristics and distance from home in determining store choice. Store size, whether or not it was a full-service supermarket, and the driving distance from home to the store constituted the three significant main effects on store choice. Overall, participants were more likely to choose larger stores, conventional supermarkets rather than super-centers and other types of stores, and stores closer to home. Interaction effects show that participants receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) were even more likely to choose larger stores. Hispanic participants were more likely than non-Hispanics to choose full-service supermarkets while White participants were more likely to travel further than non-Whites. This study demonstrates the value of explicitly spatial discrete choice models and provides evidence of national trends consistent with previous smaller, local studies. PMID:28953221

  7. The Proposal of a BDS Syllabus Framework to Suit Choice Based Credit System (CBCS).

    PubMed

    Manivasakan, Shivasakthy; Sethuraman, K R; Narayan, K A

    2016-08-01

    Higher education takes a new dimension universally in the form of choice based Credit System (CBCS). In India, the University Grants Commission (UGC) has made CBCS mandatory in all fields except for Health Profession. Not much attempts were made in designing a BDS syllabus to suit CBCS. Aim of the study was to propose a model dental syllabus to fit into choice based credit system. A model BDS syllabus Prototype for CBCS was designed based on the UGC guidelines for terms as well as calculations for CBCS. Engineering curriculum models from IIT and Anna University were also referred to. Semester based BDS syllabus was designed without changing the norms of Dental Council of India (DCI). All the must know areas of the subjects were considered as "core" areas and the desirable and nice to know areas are left for "electives" by the students. By this method, none of the subject was left out at the same time students are provided with electives to learn deeper on their topics of choice. The existing BDS syllabus can be effectively modified by incorporating few changes based on the UGC regulations for Choice based credit system. The proposed framework gives an insight on the nature of modifications that are needed. By adopting this, BDS Course regulations can also follow CBCS without neglecting or reducing the weightage of any subject.

  8. Commuting Mode Choice in a High-Density City: Do Land-Use Density and Diversity Matter in Hong Kong?

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Guibo; Sarkar, Chinmoy; Xiao, Yang

    2018-01-01

    Hong Kong is a densely populated and transit-oriented Chinese city, which provides an ideal urban environment with which to study the various successful facets of land use policy as a model for potential replication to curb increasing car use in other Chinese cities. We examine the commuting mode choice of 203,900 households living in 4768 street blocks in Hong Kong from 2011 census. A street block is the smallest planning unit, made up of one or more housing estates with a homogenous built environment and socioeconomic status. The built environment is measured using the five Ds framework, an international dimensioning framework for classifying and measuring attributes of the built environment for physical activity and travel behaviors. Generalized, multi-level mixed models were applied to detect the associations between travel choice and built environment characteristics, while adjusting for socioeconomic status. Design and destination accessibility had greater effects on the choices to walk and take public transport than on the choice to drive. Density and diversity had only marginal effects on mode choice. Unexpectedly, distance to the urban center had the opposite effect on automobile use to that found in Western studies. Hong Kong residents living close to the urban center were more likely to drive for commuting trips. The contrasting findings between our study and Western studies suggest that the associations between a high-density built environment and travel choice vary with urban context. PMID:29734721

  9. State-Dependent Decisions Cause Apparent Violations of Rationality in Animal Choice

    PubMed Central

    Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Pompilio, Lorena

    2004-01-01

    Normative models of choice in economics and biology usually expect preferences to be consistent across contexts, or “rational” in economic language. Following a large body of literature reporting economically irrational behaviour in humans, breaches of rationality by animals have also been recently described. If proven systematic, these findings would challenge long-standing biological approaches to behavioural theorising, and suggest that cognitive processes similar to those claimed to cause irrationality in humans can also hinder optimality approaches to modelling animal preferences. Critical differences between human and animal experiments have not, however, been sufficiently acknowledged. While humans can be instructed conceptually about the choice problem, animals need to be trained by repeated exposure to all contingencies. This exposure often leads to differences in state between treatments, hence changing choices while preserving rationality. We report experiments with European starlings demonstrating that apparent breaches of rationality can result from state-dependence. We show that adding an inferior alternative to a choice set (a “decoy”) affects choices, an effect previously interpreted as indicating irrationality. However, these effects appear and disappear depending on whether state differences between choice contexts are present or not. These results open the possibility that some expressions of maladaptive behaviour are due to oversights in the migration of ideas between economics and biology, and suggest that key differences between human and nonhuman research must be recognised if ideas are to safely travel between these fields. PMID:15550984

  10. To See the World or Stay at Home: Applying an Integrated Student Choice Model to Explore the Gender Gap in the Intent to Study Abroad

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salisbury, Mark H.; Paulsen, Michael B.; Pascarella, Ernest T.

    2010-01-01

    Although interest in study abroad has grown consistently in recent decades, study abroad professionals and higher education scholars have been unable to explain or rectify the long-standing gender gap in study abroad participation. This study applies an integrated model of the student-choice construct to explore differences between male and female…

  11. A spatial econometric analysis of land-use change with land cover trends data: an application to the Pacific Northwest

    Treesearch

    David J. Lewis; Ralph J. Alig

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a plot-level spatial econometric land-use model and estimates it with U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Trends (LCT) geographic information system panel data for the western halves of the states of Oregon and Washington. The discrete-choice framework we use models plot-scale choices of the three dominant land uses in this region: forest, agriculture...

  12. Instance-based learning: integrating sampling and repeated decisions from experience.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez, Cleotilde; Dutt, Varun

    2011-10-01

    In decisions from experience, there are 2 experimental paradigms: sampling and repeated-choice. In the sampling paradigm, participants sample between 2 options as many times as they want (i.e., the stopping point is variable), observe the outcome with no real consequences each time, and finally select 1 of the 2 options that cause them to earn or lose money. In the repeated-choice paradigm, participants select 1 of the 2 options for a fixed number of times and receive immediate outcome feedback that affects their earnings. These 2 experimental paradigms have been studied independently, and different cognitive processes have often been assumed to take place in each, as represented in widely diverse computational models. We demonstrate that behavior in these 2 paradigms relies upon common cognitive processes proposed by the instance-based learning theory (IBLT; Gonzalez, Lerch, & Lebiere, 2003) and that the stopping point is the only difference between the 2 paradigms. A single cognitive model based on IBLT (with an added stopping point rule in the sampling paradigm) captures human choices and predicts the sequence of choice selections across both paradigms. We integrate the paradigms through quantitative model comparison, where IBLT outperforms the best models created for each paradigm separately. We discuss the implications for the psychology of decision making. © 2011 American Psychological Association

  13. A two-layered diffusion model traces the dynamics of information processing in the valuation-and-choice circuit of decision making.

    PubMed

    Piu, Pietro; Fargnoli, Francesco; Innocenti, Alessandro; Rufa, Alessandra

    2014-01-01

    A circuit of evaluation and selection of the alternatives is considered a reliable model in neurobiology. The prominent contributions of the literature to this topic are reported. In this study, valuation and choice of a decisional process during Two-Alternative Forced-Choice (TAFC) task are represented as a two-layered network of computational cells, where information accrual and processing progress in nonlinear diffusion dynamics. The evolution of the response-to-stimulus map is thus modeled by two linked diffusive modules (2LDM) representing the neuronal populations involved in the valuation-and-decision circuit of decision making. Diffusion models are naturally appropriate for describing accumulation of evidence over the time. This allows the computation of the response times (RTs) in valuation and choice, under the hypothesis of ex-Wald distribution. A nonlinear transfer function integrates the activities of the two layers. The input-output map based on the infomax principle makes the 2LDM consistent with the reinforcement learning approach. Results from simulated likelihood time series indicate that 2LDM may account for the activity-dependent modulatory component of effective connectivity between the neuronal populations. Rhythmic fluctuations of the estimate gain functions in the delta-beta bands also support the compatibility of 2LDM with the neurobiology of DM.

  14. Using a Novel Alternative to Drug Choice in a Human Laboratory Model of a Cocaine Binge: A Game of Chance

    PubMed Central

    Vosburg, Suzanne K.; Haney, Margaret; Rubin, Eric; Foltin, Richard W.

    2010-01-01

    Human laboratory studies have shown that, once initiated, cocaine self-administration is difficult to disrupt using non-drug alternatives. This inpatient study examined whether binge self-administration of cocaine could be altered by an immediate, non-drug reinforcer. Ten cocaine-dependent participants completed 5 consecutive laboratory session days with 2 sessions per day (a model binge), 9 days where cocaine was not available, and subsequent 2 laboratory session days where cocaine was again available (a second model binge). In each laboratory session, participants could choose to either self-administer smoked cocaine or play a game of chance by drawing a pre-determined number of balls from a bingo wheel. Balls were worth monetary amounts from $0 – $20. Participants’ choice to smoke cocaine varied as a function of number of balls drawn. Thus, this game of chance served as an alternative reinforcer to smoking cocaine. Choice varied lawfully as a function of the number of opportunities to earn money indicating that an immediate behavioral alternative can reduce cocaine self-administration after initiation of use. The current model could be used to evaluate whether behavioral and pharmacological manipulations shift choice from cocaine to a non-drug alternative. PMID:20346597

  15. Prospect theory reflects selective allocation of attention.

    PubMed

    Pachur, Thorsten; Schulte-Mecklenbeck, Michael; Murphy, Ryan O; Hertwig, Ralph

    2018-02-01

    There is a disconnect in the literature between analyses of risky choice based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) and work on predecisional information processing. One likely reason is that for expectation models (e.g., CPT), it is often assumed that people behaved only as if they conducted the computations leading to the predicted choice and that the models are thus mute regarding information processing. We suggest that key psychological constructs in CPT, such as loss aversion and outcome and probability sensitivity, can be interpreted in terms of attention allocation. In two experiments, we tested hypotheses about specific links between CPT parameters and attentional regularities. Experiment 1 used process tracing to monitor participants' predecisional attention allocation to outcome and probability information. As hypothesized, individual differences in CPT's loss-aversion, outcome-sensitivity, and probability-sensitivity parameters (estimated from participants' choices) were systematically associated with individual differences in attention allocation to outcome and probability information. For instance, loss aversion was associated with the relative attention allocated to loss and gain outcomes, and a more strongly curved weighting function was associated with less attention allocated to probabilities. Experiment 2 manipulated participants' attention to losses or gains, causing systematic differences in CPT's loss-aversion parameter. This result indicates that attention allocation can to some extent cause choice regularities that are captured by CPT. Our findings demonstrate an as-if model's capacity to reflect characteristics of information processing. We suggest that the observed CPT-attention links can be harnessed to inform the development of process models of risky choice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Parallel Representation of Value-Based and Finite State-Based Strategies in the Ventral and Dorsal Striatum

    PubMed Central

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2015-01-01

    Previous theoretical studies of animal and human behavioral learning have focused on the dichotomy of the value-based strategy using action value functions to predict rewards and the model-based strategy using internal models to predict environmental states. However, animals and humans often take simple procedural behaviors, such as the “win-stay, lose-switch” strategy without explicit prediction of rewards or states. Here we consider another strategy, the finite state-based strategy, in which a subject selects an action depending on its discrete internal state and updates the state depending on the action chosen and the reward outcome. By analyzing choice behavior of rats in a free-choice task, we found that the finite state-based strategy fitted their behavioral choices more accurately than value-based and model-based strategies did. When fitted models were run autonomously with the same task, only the finite state-based strategy could reproduce the key feature of choice sequences. Analyses of neural activity recorded from the dorsolateral striatum (DLS), the dorsomedial striatum (DMS), and the ventral striatum (VS) identified significant fractions of neurons in all three subareas for which activities were correlated with individual states of the finite state-based strategy. The signal of internal states at the time of choice was found in DMS, and for clusters of states was found in VS. In addition, action values and state values of the value-based strategy were encoded in DMS and VS, respectively. These results suggest that both the value-based strategy and the finite state-based strategy are implemented in the striatum. PMID:26529522

  17. Nutrieconomic model can facilitate healthy and low-cost food choices.

    PubMed

    Primavesi, Laura; Caccavelli, Giovanna; Ciliberto, Alessandra; Pauze, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    Promotion of healthy eating can no longer be postponed as a priority, given the alarming growth rate of chronic degenerative diseases in Western countries. We elaborated a nutrieconomic model to assess and identify the most nutritious and affordable food choices. Seventy-one food items representing the main food categories were included and their nationally representative prices monitored. Food composition was determined using CRA-NUT (Centro di Ricerca per gli Alimenti e la Nutrizione) and IEO (Istituto Europeo di Oncologia) databases. To define food nutritional quality, the mean adequacy ratio and mean excess ratio were combined. Both prices and nutritional quality were normalised for the edible food content and for the recommended serving sizes for the Italian adult population. Stores located in different provinces throughout Italy. Not applicable. Cereals and legumes presented very similar nutritional qualities and prices per serving. Seasonal fruits and vegetables presented differentiated nutritional qualities and almost equal prices. Products of animal origin showed similar nutritional qualities and varied prices: the best nutrieconomic choices were milk, oily fish and poultry for the dairy products, fish and meat groups, respectively. Analysing two balanced weekly menus, our nutrieconomic model was able to note a significant decrease in cost of approximately 30 % by varying animal-protein sources without affecting nutritional quality. Healthy eating does not necessarily imply spending large amounts of money but rather being able to make nutritionally optimal choices. The nutrieconomic model is an innovative and practical way to help consumers make correct food choices and nutritionists increase the compliance of their patients.

  18. Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Stephens, Thomas S.; Levinson, Rebecca S.; Brooker, Aaron

    Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception ofmore » ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible. Projections by all models were in close agreement only in the first few years. Although the projections from LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, and ParaChoice were in qualitative agreement, there were significant differences in sales shares given by the different models for individual powertrain types, particularly in later years (2030 and later). For example, projected sales shares of conventional spark-ignition vehicles in 2030 for a given scenario ranged from 35% to 74%. Reasons for such differences are discussed, recognizing that these models were not developed to give quantitatively accurate predictions of future sales shares, but to represent vehicles markets realistically and capture the connections between sales and important influences. Model features were also compared at a high level, and suggestions for further comparison of models are given to enable better understanding of how different features and algorithms used in these models may give different projections.« less

  19. Factoring out nondecision time in choice reaction time data: Theory and implications.

    PubMed

    Verdonck, Stijn; Tuerlinckx, Francis

    2016-03-01

    Choice reaction time (RT) experiments are an invaluable tool in psychology and neuroscience. A common assumption is that the total choice response time is the sum of a decision and a nondecision part (time spent on perceptual and motor processes). While the decision part is typically modeled very carefully (commonly with diffusion models), a simple and ad hoc distribution (mostly uniform) is assumed for the nondecision component. Nevertheless, it has been shown that the misspecification of the nondecision time can severely distort the decision model parameter estimates. In this article, we propose an alternative approach to the estimation of choice RT models that elegantly bypasses the specification of the nondecision time distribution by means of an unconventional convolution of data and decision model distributions (hence called the D*M approach). Once the decision model parameters have been estimated, it is possible to compute a nonparametric estimate of the nondecision time distribution. The technique is tested on simulated data, and is shown to systematically remove traditional estimation bias related to misspecified nondecision time, even for a relatively small number of observations. The shape of the actual underlying nondecision time distribution can also be recovered. Next, the D*M approach is applied to a selection of existing diffusion model application articles. For all of these studies, substantial quantitative differences with the original analyses are found. For one study, these differences radically alter its final conclusions, underlining the importance of our approach. Additionally, we find that strongly right skewed nondecision time distributions are not at all uncommon. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. A random utility model of delay discounting and its application to people with externalizing psychopathology.

    PubMed

    Dai, Junyi; Gunn, Rachel L; Gerst, Kyle R; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Finn, Peter R

    2016-10-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that working memory capacity plays a central role in delay discounting in people with externalizing psychopathology. These studies used a hyperbolic discounting model, and its single parameter-a measure of delay discounting-was estimated using the standard method of searching for indifference points between intertemporal options. However, there are several problems with this approach. First, the deterministic perspective on delay discounting underlying the indifference point method might be inappropriate. Second, the estimation procedure using the R2 measure often leads to poor model fit. Third, when parameters are estimated using indifference points only, much of the information collected in a delay discounting decision task is wasted. To overcome these problems, this article proposes a random utility model of delay discounting. The proposed model has 2 parameters, 1 for delay discounting and 1 for choice variability. It was fit to choice data obtained from a recently published data set using both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian parameter estimation. As in previous studies, the delay discounting parameter was significantly associated with both externalizing problems and working memory capacity. Furthermore, choice variability was also found to be significantly associated with both variables. This finding suggests that randomness in decisions may be a mechanism by which externalizing problems and low working memory capacity are associated with poor decision making. The random utility model thus has the advantage of disclosing the role of choice variability, which had been masked by the traditional deterministic model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. The memory state heuristic: A formal model based on repeated recognition judgments.

    PubMed

    Castela, Marta; Erdfelder, Edgar

    2017-02-01

    The recognition heuristic (RH) theory predicts that, in comparative judgment tasks, if one object is recognized and the other is not, the recognized one is chosen. The memory-state heuristic (MSH) extends the RH by assuming that choices are not affected by recognition judgments per se, but by the memory states underlying these judgments (i.e., recognition certainty, uncertainty, or rejection certainty). Specifically, the larger the discrepancy between memory states, the larger the probability of choosing the object in the higher state. The typical RH paradigm does not allow estimation of the underlying memory states because it is unknown whether the objects were previously experienced or not. Therefore, we extended the paradigm by repeating the recognition task twice. In line with high threshold models of recognition, we assumed that inconsistent recognition judgments result from uncertainty whereas consistent judgments most likely result from memory certainty. In Experiment 1, we fitted 2 nested multinomial models to the data: an MSH model that formalizes the relation between memory states and binary choices explicitly and an approximate model that ignores the (unlikely) possibility of consistent guesses. Both models provided converging results. As predicted, reliance on recognition increased with the discrepancy in the underlying memory states. In Experiment 2, we replicated these results and found support for choice consistency predictions of the MSH. Additionally, recognition and choice latencies were in agreement with the MSH in both experiments. Finally, we validated critical parameters of our MSH model through a cross-validation method and a third experiment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Believing Is Doing: Emotion Regulation Beliefs Are Associated With Emotion Regulation Behavioral Choices and Subjective Well-Being

    PubMed Central

    Ortner, Catherine Nicole Marie; Briner, Esther Lydia; Marjanovic, Zdravko

    2017-01-01

    Research in emotion regulation has begun to examine various predictors of emotion regulation choices, including individual differences and contextual variables. However, scant attention has been paid to the extent to which people’s beliefs about the specific consequences of emotion regulation strategies for the components of an emotional response and long-term well-being predict their behavioral regulatory choices and, in turn, their subjective well-being. Participants completed measures to assess their beliefs about the consequences of functional and dysfunctional strategies, behavioral choices of emotion regulation strategies in negative scenarios, and subjective well-being. The model that fit the data indicated partial mediation whereby beliefs were associated with approximately 9% of the variance in choices. Emotion regulation choices were related to subjective well-being, with an additional direct effect between beliefs and well-being. This suggests beliefs play a role in people’s regulatory choices. Future research should explore how beliefs interact with individual differences and contextual variables to better understand why people regulate their emotions in different ways and, ultimately, to help individuals make healthy emotion regulation choices. PMID:28344675

  3. Believing Is Doing: Emotion Regulation Beliefs Are Associated With Emotion Regulation Behavioral Choices and Subjective Well-Being.

    PubMed

    Ortner, Catherine Nicole Marie; Briner, Esther Lydia; Marjanovic, Zdravko

    2017-03-01

    Research in emotion regulation has begun to examine various predictors of emotion regulation choices, including individual differences and contextual variables. However, scant attention has been paid to the extent to which people's beliefs about the specific consequences of emotion regulation strategies for the components of an emotional response and long-term well-being predict their behavioral regulatory choices and, in turn, their subjective well-being. Participants completed measures to assess their beliefs about the consequences of functional and dysfunctional strategies, behavioral choices of emotion regulation strategies in negative scenarios, and subjective well-being. The model that fit the data indicated partial mediation whereby beliefs were associated with approximately 9% of the variance in choices. Emotion regulation choices were related to subjective well-being, with an additional direct effect between beliefs and well-being. This suggests beliefs play a role in people's regulatory choices. Future research should explore how beliefs interact with individual differences and contextual variables to better understand why people regulate their emotions in different ways and, ultimately, to help individuals make healthy emotion regulation choices.

  4. Cognitive Components Underpinning the Development of Model-Based Learning

    PubMed Central

    Potter, Tracey C.S.; Bryce, Nessa V.; Hartley, Catherine A.

    2016-01-01

    Reinforcement learning theory distinguishes “model-free” learning, which fosters reflexive repetition of previously rewarded actions, from “model-based” learning, which recruits a mental model of the environment to flexibly select goal-directed actions. Whereas model-free learning is evident across development, recruitment of model-based learning appears to increase with age. However, the cognitive processes underlying the development of model-based learning remain poorly characterized. Here, we examined whether age-related differences in cognitive processes underlying the construction and flexible recruitment of mental models predict developmental increases in model-based choice. In a cohort of participants aged 9–25, we examined whether the abilities to infer sequential regularities in the environment (“statistical learning”), maintain information in an active state (“working memory”) and integrate distant concepts to solve problems (“fluid reasoning”) predicted age-related improvements in model-based choice. We found that age-related improvements in statistical learning performance did not mediate the relationship between age and model-based choice. Ceiling performance on our working memory assay prevented examination of its contribution to model-based learning. However, age-related improvements in fluid reasoning statistically mediated the developmental increase in the recruitment of a model-based strategy. These findings suggest that gradual development of fluid reasoning may be a critical component process underlying the emergence of model-based learning. PMID:27825732

  5. Cognitive components underpinning the development of model-based learning.

    PubMed

    Potter, Tracey C S; Bryce, Nessa V; Hartley, Catherine A

    2017-06-01

    Reinforcement learning theory distinguishes "model-free" learning, which fosters reflexive repetition of previously rewarded actions, from "model-based" learning, which recruits a mental model of the environment to flexibly select goal-directed actions. Whereas model-free learning is evident across development, recruitment of model-based learning appears to increase with age. However, the cognitive processes underlying the development of model-based learning remain poorly characterized. Here, we examined whether age-related differences in cognitive processes underlying the construction and flexible recruitment of mental models predict developmental increases in model-based choice. In a cohort of participants aged 9-25, we examined whether the abilities to infer sequential regularities in the environment ("statistical learning"), maintain information in an active state ("working memory") and integrate distant concepts to solve problems ("fluid reasoning") predicted age-related improvements in model-based choice. We found that age-related improvements in statistical learning performance did not mediate the relationship between age and model-based choice. Ceiling performance on our working memory assay prevented examination of its contribution to model-based learning. However, age-related improvements in fluid reasoning statistically mediated the developmental increase in the recruitment of a model-based strategy. These findings suggest that gradual development of fluid reasoning may be a critical component process underlying the emergence of model-based learning. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Choice Set Size and Decision-Making: The Case of Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans

    PubMed Central

    Bundorf, M. Kate; Szrek, Helena

    2013-01-01

    Background The impact of choice on consumer decision-making is controversial in U.S. health policy. Objective Our objective was to determine how choice set size influences decision-making among Medicare beneficiaries choosing prescription drug plans. Methods We randomly assigned members of an internet-enabled panel age 65 and over to sets of prescription drug plans of varying sizes (2, 5, 10, and 16) and asked them to choose a plan. Respondents answered questions about the plan they chose, the choice set, and the decision process. We used ordered probit models to estimate the effect of choice set size on the study outcomes. Results Both the benefits of choice, measured by whether the chosen plan is close to the ideal plan, and the costs, measured by whether the respondent found decision-making difficult, increased with choice set size. Choice set size was not associated with the probability of enrolling in any plan. Conclusions Medicare beneficiaries face a tension between not wanting to choose from too many options and feeling happier with an outcome when they have more alternatives. Interventions that reduce cognitive costs when choice sets are large may make this program more attractive to beneficiaries. PMID:20228281

  7. Food choice by people with intellectual disabilities at day centres: A qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Cartwright, Luke; Reid, Marie; Hammersley, Richard; Blackburn, Chrissie; Glover, Lesley

    2015-06-01

    People with intellectual disabilities experience a range of health inequalities. It is important to investigate possible contributory factors that may lead to these inequalities. This qualitative study identified some difficulties for healthy eating in day centres. (1) Service users and their family carers were aware of healthy food choices but framed these as diets for weight loss rather than as everyday eating. (2) Paid carers and managers regarded the principle of service user autonomy and choice as paramount, which meant that they felt limited in their capacity to influence food choices, which they attributed to the home environment. (3) Carers used food as a treat, a reward and for social bonding with service users. (4) Service users' food choices modelled other service users' and carers' choices at the time. It is suggested that healthy eating should be made more of a priority in day care, with a view to promoting exemplarily behaviour that might influence food choice at home. © The Author(s) 2014.

  8. Reward Contrast Effects on Impulsive Choice and Timing in Rats

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Aaron P.; Peterson, Jennifer R.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2016-01-01

    Despite considerable interest in impulsive choice as a predictor of a variety of maladaptive behaviors, the mechanisms that drive choice behavior are still poorly understood. The present study sought to examine the influence of one understudied variable, reward magnitude contrast, on choice and timing behavior as changes in magnitude commonly occur within choice procedures. In addition, assessments of indirect effects on choice behavior through magnitude-timing interactions were assessed by measuring timing within the choice task. Rats were exposed to choice procedures composed of different pairs of magnitudes of rewards for either the smaller-sooner (SS) or larger-later (LL) option. In Phase 2, the magnitude of reward either increased or decreased by 1 pellet in different groups (LL increase = 1v1→1v2; SS decrease = 2v2 → 1v2; SS increase = 1v2 → 2v2), followed by a return to baseline in Phase 3. Choice behavior was affected by the initial magnitudes experienced in the task, demonstrating a strong anchor effect. The nature of the change in magnitude affected choice behavior as well. Timing behavior was also affected by the reward contrast manipulation albeit to a lesser degree and the timing and choice effects were correlated. The results suggest that models of choice behavior should incorporate reinforcement history, reward contrast elements, and magnitude-timing interactions, but that direct effects of reward contrast on choice should be given more weight than the indirect reward-timing interactions. A better understanding of the factors that contribute to choice behavior could supply key insights into this important individual differences variable. PMID:27867839

  9. The effects of nutrition labeling on consumer food choice: a psychological experiment and computational model.

    PubMed

    Helfer, Peter; Shultz, Thomas R

    2014-12-01

    The widespread availability of calorie-dense food is believed to be a contributing cause of an epidemic of obesity and associated diseases throughout the world. One possible countermeasure is to empower consumers to make healthier food choices with useful nutrition labeling. An important part of this endeavor is to determine the usability of existing and proposed labeling schemes. Here, we report an experiment on how four different labeling schemes affect the speed and nutritional value of food choices. We then apply decision field theory, a leading computational model of human decision making, to simulate the experimental results. The psychology experiment shows that quantitative, single-attribute labeling schemes have greater usability than multiattribute and binary ones, and that they remain effective under moderate time pressure. The computational model simulates these psychological results and provides explanatory insights into them. This work shows how experimental psychology and computational modeling can contribute to the evaluation and improvement of nutrition-labeling schemes. © 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.

  10. Causal Modeling the Delayed-Choice Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaves, Rafael; Lemos, Gabriela Barreto; Pienaar, Jacques

    2018-05-01

    Wave-particle duality has become one of the flagships of quantum mechanics. This counterintuitive concept is highlighted in a delayed-choice experiment, where the experimental setup that reveals either the particle or wave nature of a quantum system is decided after the system has entered the apparatus. Here we consider delayed-choice experiments from the perspective of device-independent causal models and show their equivalence to a prepare-and-measure scenario. Within this framework, we consider Wheeler's original proposal and its variant using a quantum control and show that a simple classical causal model is capable of reproducing the quantum mechanical predictions. Nonetheless, among other results, we show that, in a slight variant of Wheeler's gedanken experiment, a photon in an interferometer can indeed generate statistics incompatible with any nonretrocausal hidden variable model, whose dimensionality is the same as that of the quantum system it is supposed to mimic. Our proposal tolerates arbitrary losses and inefficiencies, making it specially suited to loophole-free experimental implementations.

  11. A Game-Theoretic Approach to Information-Flow Control via Protocol Composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvim, Mário; Chatzikokolakis, Konstantinos; Kawamoto, Yusuke; Palamidessi, Catuscia

    2018-05-01

    In the inference attacks studied in Quantitative Information Flow (QIF), the attacker typically tries to interfere with the system in the attempt to increase its leakage of secret information. The defender, on the other hand, typically tries to decrease leakage by introducing some controlled noise. This noise introduction can be modeled as a type of protocol composition, i.e., a probabilistic choice among different protocols, and its effect on the amount of leakage depends heavily on whether or not this choice is visible to the attacker. In this work, we consider operators for modeling visible and hidden choice in protocol composition, and we study their algebraic properties. We then formalize the interplay between defender and attacker in a game-theoretic framework adapted to the specific issues of QIF, where the payoff is information leakage. We consider various kinds of leakage games, depending on whether players act simultaneously or sequentially, and on whether or not the choices of the defender are visible to the attacker. In the case of sequential games, the choice of the second player is generally a function of the choice of the first player, and his/her probabilistic choice can be either over the possible functions (mixed strategy) or it can be on the result of the function (behavioral strategy). We show that when the attacker moves first in a sequential game with a hidden choice, then behavioral strategies are more advantageous for the defender than mixed strategies. This contrasts with the standard game theory, where the two types of strategies are equivalent. Finally, we establish a hierarchy of these games in terms of their information leakage and provide methods for finding optimal strategies (at the points of equilibrium) for both attacker and defender in the various cases.

  12. Change of water consumption and its potential influential factors in Shanghai: A cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Different water choices affect access to drinking water with different quality. Previous studies suggested social-economic status may affect the choice of domestic drinking water. The aim of this study is to investigate whether recent social economic changes in China affect residents’ drinking water choices. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey to investigate residents’ water consumption behaviour in 2011. Gender, age, education, personal income, housing condition, risk perception and personal preference of a certain type of water were selected as potential influential factors. Univariate and backward stepwise logistic regression analyses were performed to analyse the relation between these factors and different drinking water choices. Basic information was compared with that of a historical survey in the same place in 2001. Self-reported drinking-water-related diarrhoea was found correlated with different water choices and water hygiene treatment using chi-square test. Results The percentage of tap water consumption remained relatively stable and a preferred choice, with 58.99% in 2001 and 58.25% in 2011. The percentage of bottled/barrelled water consumption was 36.86% in 2001 and decreased to 25.75% in 2011. That of household filtrated water was 4.15% in 2001 and increased to 16.00% in 2011. Logistic regression model showed strong correlation between one’s health belief and drinking water choices (P < 0.001). Age, personal income, education, housing condition, risk perception also played important roles (P < 0.05) in the models. Drinking-water-related diarrhoea was found in all types of water and improper water hygiene behaviours still existed among residents. Conclusions Personal health belief, housing condition, age, personal income, education, taste and if worm ever founded in tap water affected domestic drinking water choices in Shanghai. PMID:22708830

  13. Personal Food Systems of Male Collegiate Football Players: A Grounded Theory Investigation

    PubMed Central

    Long, Doug; Perry, Christina; Unruh, Scott A.; Lewis, Nancy; Stanek-Krogstrand, Kaye

    2011-01-01

    Context: Factors that affect food choices include the physical and social environments, quality, quantity, perceived healthfulness, and convenience. The personal food choice process was defined as the procedures used by athletes for making food choices, including the weighing and balancing of activities of daily life, physical well-being, convenience, monetary resources, and social relationships. Objective: To develop a theoretical model explaining the personal food choice processes of collegiate football players. Design: Qualitative study. Setting: National Collegiate Athletic Association Division II football program. Patients or Other Participants: Fifteen football players were purposefully sampled to represent various positions, years of athletic eligibility, and ethnic backgrounds. Data Collection and Analysis: For text data collection, we used predetermined, open-ended questions. Data were analyzed using the constant comparison method. The athletes' words were used to label and describe their interactions and experiences with the food choice process. Member checks and an external audit were conducted by a qualitative methodologist and a nutrition specialist, and the findings were triangulated with the current literature to ensure trustworthiness of the text data. Results: Time was the core category and yielded a cyclic graphic of a theoretical model for the food choice system. Planning hydration, macronutrient strategies, snacks, and healthful food choices emerged as themes. Conclusions: The athletes planned meals and snacks around their academic and athletic schedules while attempting to consume foods identified as healthful. Healthful foods were generally lower in fat but high in preferred macronutrients. High-protein foods were the players' primary goal; carbohydrate consumption was secondary. The athletes had established plans to maintain hydration. Professionals may use these findings to implement educational programs on food choices for football players. PMID:22488196

  14. Change of water consumption and its potential influential factors in Shanghai: a cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hanyi; Zhang, Yaying; Ma, Linlin; Liu, Fangmin; Zheng, Weiwei; Shen, Qinfeng; Zhang, Hongmei; Wei, Xiao; Tian, Dajun; He, Gengsheng; Qu, Weidong

    2012-06-18

    Different water choices affect access to drinking water with different quality. Previous studies suggested social-economic status may affect the choice of domestic drinking water. The aim of this study is to investigate whether recent social economic changes in China affect residents' drinking water choices. We conducted a cross-sectional survey to investigate residents' water consumption behaviour in 2011. Gender, age, education, personal income, housing condition, risk perception and personal preference of a certain type of water were selected as potential influential factors. Univariate and backward stepwise logistic regression analyses were performed to analyse the relation between these factors and different drinking water choices. Basic information was compared with that of a historical survey in the same place in 2001. Self-reported drinking-water-related diarrhoea was found correlated with different water choices and water hygiene treatment using chi-square test. The percentage of tap water consumption remained relatively stable and a preferred choice, with 58.99% in 2001 and 58.25% in 2011. The percentage of bottled/barrelled water consumption was 36.86% in 2001 and decreased to 25.75% in 2011. That of household filtrated water was 4.15% in 2001 and increased to 16.00% in 2011. Logistic regression model showed strong correlation between one's health belief and drinking water choices (P < 0.001). Age, personal income, education, housing condition, risk perception also played important roles (P < 0.05) in the models. Drinking-water-related diarrhoea was found in all types of water and improper water hygiene behaviours still existed among residents. Personal health belief, housing condition, age, personal income, education, taste and if worm ever founded in tap water affected domestic drinking water choices in Shanghai.

  15. Factors associated to the career choice of family medicine among Japanese physicians: the dawn of a new era.

    PubMed

    Ie, Kenya; Tahara, Masao; Murata, Akiko; Komiyama, Manabu; Onishi, Hirotaka

    2014-01-01

    Despite recent developments in post-graduate family medicine training in Japan, the numbers of junior doctors entering family medicine residencies are still limited. The objective of this qualitative study was to investigate the possible factors associated to the career choice of family medicine, especially in the context of the newly established family medicine programs in Japan. From December 2010 to January 2011, we distributed a semi-structured questionnaire about career choice to 58 physician members of the Japan Primary Care Association, and 41 of them responded. Four researchers used the Modified Grounded Theory Approach (Kinoshita, 2003) for three-stage conceptualization. We extracted a conceptual model of the choice of newly established family medicine as a career in Japan, consisting of six categories and 77 subordinate concepts from 330 variations. The subcategories of personal background affecting the family-medicine career choice were characteristics ("self-reliance," "pioneering spirit"), career direction ("community/rural-orientedness," "multifaceted orientation") and experience (e.g., "discomfort with fragmented care"). We divided the influencing factors that were identified for career choice into supporters (e.g., "role model"), conflict of career choice (e.g., "anxiety about diverse/broad practice"), and the dawn of a new era in family medicine in Japan (e.g., "lack of social recognition," "concern about livelihood," and "too few role models"). Although the dawn of a new era seemed a rather negative influencer, it was unique to our study that the dawn itself could attract those with a "pioneering spirit" and an "attitude of self-training." Unlike previous studies, the positive factors such as lifestyle and the short residency program were not shown to be part of family medicine's attractiveness. In contrast, "concern about livelihood" was specific among our respondents and was related to career choice in the dawn period. "Community-orientedness" and "multifaceted orientation" (which have aspects in common with previous studies' findings) would appear to be universal regardless of cultural and medical system differences. In our study, these universal factors were also found to be part of the attractiveness of family medicine from the practitioners' viewpoints, and these factors may become great influencers for family medicine candidates.

  16. Sequential effects in pigeon delayed matching-to-sample performance.

    PubMed

    Roitblat, H L; Scopatz, R A

    1983-04-01

    Pigeons were tested in a three-alternative delayed matching-to-sample task in which second-choices were permitted following first-choice errors. Sequences of responses both within and between trials were examined in three experiments. The first experiment demonstrates that the sample information contained in first-choice errors is not sufficient to account for the observed pattern of second choices. This result implies that second-choices following first-choice errors are based on a second examination of the contents of working memory. Proactive interference was found in the second experiment in the form of a dependency, beyond that expected on the basis of trial independent response bias, of first-choices from one trial on the first-choice emitted on the previous trial. Samples from the previous trial were not found to exert a significant influence on later trials. The magnitude of the intertrial association (Experiment 3) did not depend on the duration of the intertrial interval. In contrast, longer intertrial intervals and longer sample durations did facilitate choice accuracy, by strengthening the association between current samples and choices. These results are incompatible with a trace-decay and competition model; they suggest strongly that multiple influences act simultaneously and independently to control delayed matching-to-sample responding. These multiple influences include memory for the choice occurring on the previous trial, memory for the sample, and general effects of trial spacing.

  17. Adaptive route choice modeling in uncertain traffic networks with real-time information.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-03-01

    The objective of the research is to study travelers' route choice behavior in uncertain traffic networks : with real-time information. The research is motivated by two observations of the traffic system: 1) : the system is inherently uncertain with r...

  18. Why Governments Run Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Byron W.

    1992-01-01

    Discusses problems of uncertainty and imperfect information that affect organizational choices for schools. Develops two models suggesting that schools, whether public or private, resemble each other while offering diverse curricula and outcomes. Considers the question of institutional choice by applying transaction cost economics to the options…

  19. Item Response Modeling of Forced-Choice Questionnaires

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Anna; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    Multidimensional forced-choice formats can significantly reduce the impact of numerous response biases typically associated with rating scales. However, if scored with classical methodology, these questionnaires produce ipsative data, which lead to distorted scale relationships and make comparisons between individuals problematic. This research…

  20. TCRP H-37 Characteristics of Premium Transit Services That Affect Mode Choice: Summary of Phase 1

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-11-15

    This research seeks to improve the understanding of the full range of determinants for mode choice behavior and to offer practical solutions to practitioners on representing and distinguishing these characteristics in travel demand forecasting models...

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