Perspectivas Pedagogicas. Documentos-Ponencias Y Ensayos Proyecto Teacher Corps, Ciclo XII (Pedagogical Perspectives. Documents, Papers and Essays, Teacher Corps Project, Cycle XII).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albino, Isidra, Ed.; Davila, Sonia, Ed.

The purpose of this book is to stimulate ideas leading to a sharing of approaches, strategies, and methodologies applicable to the education of Puerto Ricans. Following introductory material, 18 papers are presented, the first 10 of which are in Spanish. Titles and authors are: (1) "El maestro que Puerto Rico necesita," Leonides Santos…

Curriculum Guide for Italian Language Arts. Literature Levels AB = Guida alla Lettura della Lingua Italiana Letteratura Ciclo A & B. Working Draft.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chicago Board of Education, IL. Dept. of Curriculum.

A curriculum and teaching guide for introductory literature appreciation in the Chicago public schools is an orientation for the bilingual teacher of Italian students. Concepts such as rhyme and personification are developed for the teacher. For each of the two levels included, the section begins with a list of specific performance objectives,…

Prevendo a atividade solar através de redes neurais nebulosas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, V. A. F.; Poppe, P. C. R.

2003-08-01

Atualmente, a integração de redes neurais com técnicas da Matemática Nebulosa (Fuzzy Sets), tem sido usada robustamente para fazer previsões em vários sistemas físicos. Este trabalho representa uma continuidade da contribuição apresentada anteriormente durante a XXVIIa Reunião Anual da SAB, onde exploramos a aplicação de redes neurais para previsões futuras de séries temporais. Para este, enfatizamos o uso da técnica ANFIS (Adaptative Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System), que consiste em uma rede do tipo back-propagation, onde os dados são processados em uma camada intermediária, tendo numa camada de saída, os dados numéricos. Para que a previsão seja feita com sucesso utilizando-se técnicas matemáticas adequadas, é fundamental a existência de uma série razoavelmente longa de modo que a dinâmica contida nesta possa ser melhor extraída pela rede neural. Nesse sentido, foram utilizados novamente os dados históricos das manchas do Sol (1818-2002) afim de verificar o comportamento futuro da atividade solar (Ciclos de Schawbe) a partir da técnica descrita acima. Previsões realizadas para o ciclo anterior (n.22, máximo de 158,5 em julho de 1989), bem como para o atual (n.23, máximo de 153 em setembro de 2000), apontam valores bastante coerentes com os publicados na literatura, levando em consideração, respectivamente, as barras de erros associadas: 166+/-18 e 160+/-14. Para o próximo ciclo de Schawbe (2006-2017), nossa previsão aponta o valor de 172+/-23 como máximo para o primeiro semestre de 2011 (Abril +/- 3 meses). A ANFIS acompanha de maneira satisfatória o movimento das séries estudadas durante o treinamento e durante a verificação (menor dispersão das funções de pertinência), com erro absoluto inferior a 20 por cento.

Planificacion y registros

Treesearch

R. Kasten Dumroese; Douglass F. Jacobs; Kim M. Wilkinson

2012-01-01

El cultivo de plantines en contenedor no tiene principio ni final; es un ciclo continuo de eventos que se repiten. Todos los aspectos de la producción son importantes y ningún detalle es menos relevante que los demás. Iniciar la producción de los plantines de forma adecuada asegura la obtención de plantas saludables y de buena calidad para la plantación a campo. En...

Species Profiles. Life Histories and Environmental Requirements of Coastal Fishes and Invertebrates (South Florida). WHITE MULLET.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-05-01

of the head Class ............ .Osteichthyes length. Order .... .......... Perciformes - Family .... ........... Mugilidae REASON FOR INCLUSION IN...SERIES Geographic range: Atlantic and East- The white mullet, the second most ern Pacific; in the Western Atlantic common species of the family Mugilidae ...del ciclo de Rep. 55(34):1-15. vida de MugiI curema Valenciennes in Cuviere- Valenciennes, 1836 Moore, R. H. 1973. Energetic re- ilisces: Mugilidae

Matematicas Para El Primer Ciclo Secundario, Volumen II (Parte 2). Traduccion Preliminar de la Edicion en Ingles Revisada. (Mathematics for Junior High School, Volume II, Part 2. Preliminary Translation of the Revised English Edition).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, R. D.; And Others

This is part two of a two-part SMSG mathematics text for junior high school students. Key ideas emphasized are structure of arithmetic from an algebraic viewpoint, the real number system as a progressing development, and metric and non-metric relations in geometry. Chapter topics include real numbers, similar triangles, variation, polyhedrons,…

Matematicas Para El Primer Ciclo Secundario, Volumen I (Parte 2). Traduccion Preliminar de la Edicion Inglesa Revisada. (Mathematics for Junior High School, Volume I, Part 2. Preliminary Translation of the Revised English Edition).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, R. D.; And Others

This is part two of a two-part SMSG mathematics text for junior high school students. Key ideas emphasized are structure of arithmetic from an algebraic viewpoint, the real number system, and metric and non-metric relations in geometry. Included are chapters on the rational number system; parallels, parallelograms, triangles, and right prisms;…

Ciclovía Participation and Impacts in San Diego, CA: The First CicloSDias

PubMed Central

Engelberg, Jessa K.; Carlson, Jordan A.; Black, Michelle L.; Ryan, Sherry; Sallis, James F.

2014-01-01

Objective Ciclovía or Open Streets initiatives support physical activity through cycling/rolling, and walking/running. We evaluated San Diego’s first Open Streets event, CicloSDias, to document attendance, reach and marketing, and effects on social cohesion, businesses, and physical activity. Methods The comprehensive evaluation consisted of a city-wide survey 1 week before and after the event (n=805), counts of event attendees, and surveys of event attendees (n=713) and businesses (n=26). Results An estimated 8,311 people attended the event. Attendees had an average of 144 minutes (SD=85) of physical activity, 97% met the 30 minute/day guideline, and 39% met the 150 minute/week guideline during the event. 27% of attendees would have been inactive without the event. Awareness of the event was 10% before and 26% after the event. When comparing event attendees to San Diego residents, Latinos and non-white race/ethnicities were under-represented. Restaurants/pubs, services, and most retail stores excluding liquor stores and food markets reported positive or neutral impacts on business. Conclusion Open Street initiatives are promising ways to promote physical activity and are desired by the community. Positive effects were observed for physical activity, social cohesion, and businesses, though reach should be expanded to include more underserved community members. Evaluating Open Streets is important for sustaining and improving these efforts. PMID:25459488

Matematicas Para El Primer Ciclo Secundario, Volumen I (Parte 1). Traduccion Preliminar de la Edicion Inglesa Revisada. (Mathematics for Junior High School, Volume I, Part 1, Preliminary Translation of the Revised English Edition).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, R. D.; And Others

This is part one of a two-part SMSG mathematics text for junior high school students. Key ideas emphasized are structure of arithmetic from an algebraic viewpoint, the real number system, and metric and non-metric relations in geometry. Topics included are numbers; cardinal numbers; geometry of lines, points, and planes; geometry of angles,…

Matematicas Para El Primer Ciclo Secundario, Volumen II (Parte 1). Traduccion Preliminar de la Edicion en Ingles Revisada. (Mathematics for Junior High School, Volume II, Part 1. Preliminary Translation of the Revised English Edition).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, R. D.; And Others

This is part one of a two-part SMSG mathematics text for junior high school students. Key ideas emphasized are structure of arithmetic from an algebraic viewpoint, the real number system as a progressing development, and metric and non-metric relations in geometry. Chapter topics include number line and coordinates, equations, scientific notation,…

Insertion of Astronomy as a High School Subject. (Spanish Title: Inserción de Astronomia Como Materia del Ciclo Secundario.) Inserção da Astronomia Como Disciplina Curricular do Ensino Médio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, Claudio André C. M.; Santa Rita, Josué R.

2008-12-01

Astronomy is considered among the first sciences that man dominated, however, the basic skills for the construction of knowledge, relatively to the contents "Earth and the Universe" are not being developed properly for the majority of students concluding the high school level. The students are concluding this teaching cycle without proper knowledge of several subjects in the area of Astronomy, which are mandatory in the national Curricular National Parameters (PCN). Because of this discrepancy, this work stresses the need of the incorporation of a specific subject of Astronomy in the high school, in order to reduce the gap between what is taught and which should be taught. La Astronomía es considerada una de las primeras ciencias que el hombre dominó. Sin embargo, las habilidades básicas para la construcción del conocimento, relativo al eje temático "Tierra y Universo", no vienen siendo trabajadas adecuadamente con la mayoría de los alumnos que concluyen el ciclo escolar medio. Los alumnos están concluyendo este nivel de enseñanza sin conocimentos de varios temas en el área de Astronomía, que son obligatorios según los Parámetros Curriculares Nacionales (PCN). En virtud de esta discrepancia, este trabajo enfatiza la necesidad de incorporar una disciplina específica de Astronomía em el ciclo medio, em pro de la reducción de las distorsiones entre lo que es enseñado y lo que se debe enseñar. A Astronomia é considerada uma das primeiras ciências que o homem dominou, porém as competências básicas para a construção do conhecimento, relativo ao eixo temático "Terra e Universo", não vêm sendo trabalhadas a contento com a maioria dos alunos que concluem o ensino médio. Os alunos estão concluindo este nível de ensino sem conhecimento de vários temas na área de Astronomia, que são obrigatórios nos Parâmetros Curriculares Nacionais (PCN). Em virtude desta discrepância, este trabalho vem evidenciar a necessidade da incorporação de uma disciplina específica de Astronomia, no ensino médio, em prol da redução das distorções entre o que é ensinado e o que se deve ensinar.

Wetlands Research Program. Corps of Engineers Wetlands Delineation Manual. Appendix C. Sections 1 and 2. Region 7 - Southwest.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-01-01

goosefoot :sr’ Standl. Saline goosefoot - ,crs nr->ita Lag. Chloriq " 2 s~er- - ec-r ’ : Ciclo-permum- (Pers.) Sprague ex. Britt. . o *dr e...Fl1. Water purslane OIL DRA C.pev71oides (H.B.K.) Raven Perennial waterprinrose OIL upiraus kirg",* Wats. King lupine FAC _uzu7a -arv-_*-.ra (Ehrh...s22(H. &, A.) Torr. Fleshy porterella CPL 16 tm% Indicator *.. Scientific Name Common Name Status Portuiaca oleracea L. Ra.Common purslane FAC Potw

Life-cycle optimization model for distributed generation in buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safaei, Amir

O setor da construcao e responsavel por uma grande parte do consumo de energia e emissoes na Uniao Europeia. A Geracao Distribuida (GD) de energia, nomeadamente atraves de sistemas de cogeracao e tecnologias solares, representa um papel importante no futuro energetico deste setor. A otimizacao do funcionamento dos sistemas de cogeracao e uma tarefa complexa, devido as diversas variaveis em jogo, designadamente: os diferentes tipos de necessidades energeticas (eletricidade, aquecimento e arrefecimento), os precos dinamicos dos combustiveis (gas natural) e da eletricidade, e os custos fixos e variaveis dos diferentes sistemas de GD. Tal torna-se mais complexo considerando a natureza flutuante das tecnologias solares termicas e fotovoltaicas. Ao mesmo tempo, a liberalizacao do mercado da eletricidade permite exportar para a rede, a electricidade gerada localmente. Adicionalmente, a operacao estrategica de um sistema de GD deve atender aos quadros politicos nacionais, se tiver como objetivo beneficiar de tais regimes. Alem disso, considerando os elevados impactes ambientais do setor da construcao, qualquer avaliacao energetica de edificios rigorosa deve tambem integrar aspetos ambientais, utilizando uma abordagem de Ciclo de Vida (CV). Uma avaliacao de Ciclo de Vida (ACV) completa de um sistema de GD deve incluir as fases relativas a operacao e construcao do sistema, bem como os impactes associados a producao dos combustiveis. Foram analisadas as emissoes da producao de GN, as quais variam de acordo com a origem, tipo (convencional ou nao-convencional), e estado (na forma de GN Liquefeito (GNL) ou gas). Do mesmo modo, o impacte dos sistemas solares e afetado pela meteorologia e radiacao solar, de acordo com a sua localizacao geografica. Sendo assim, uma avaliacao adequada dos sistemas de GD exige um modelo de ACV adequado a localizacao geografica (Portugal), integrando tambem a producao de combustivel (GN), tendo em conta as suas diferentes fontes de abastecimento. O principal objetivo desta tese de doutoramento foi desenvolver um modelo para otimizar o desenho e operacao de sistemas de GD para o setor da construcao de edificios comerciais em Portugal, considerando os respetivos Impactes de Ciclo de Vida (IAVC) e Custos de Ciclo de Vida (CCV), de modo a satisfazer as necessidades energeticas do edificio. Tres tipos de tecnologias de cogeracao (Micro-Turbinas, Motores de combustao interna, e Celulas combustiveis de Oxido solido), e dois tipos de tecnologias de energia solar, solar termica e fotovoltaica, constituem os sistemas de GD que sao acoplados aos sistemas convencionais. Foi desenvolvido um modelo de CV, tendo em conta todos os impactes relacionados com a construcao e operacao dos sistemas de energia, bem como os processos a montante relacionados com a producao do GN. Em particular, o mix de GN consumido em Portugal em 2011 foi identificado (60% da Nigeria, 40% da Argelia) e os impactes relativos a cada uma das vias de abastecimento foram avaliados separadamente para quatro categorias de impacte ambiental: Consumo de Energia Primaria (CEP), Gases com Efeito de Estufa (GEE), acidificacao, e eutrofizacao. Devido a importancia das emissoes de GEE na formulacao de politicas, foi tambem realizada uma analise de incerteza as emissoes de GEE do GN fornecido a Portugal. Foi desenvolvido um modelo matematico, em linguagem de Programacao General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), que utiliza os resultados da ACV dos sistemas de energia e as suas implicacoes economicas para minimizar o CCV e IACV ao longo de um horizonte de planeamento definido pelo decisor. Foram derivadas fronteiras otimas de Pareto, representando as relacoes entre o tipo de IACV (CEP, GEE, acidificacao, eutrofizacao) e CCV decorrentes da satisfacao das necessidades energeticas do edificio. Para aumentar a robustez do modelo, dada a incerteza dos precos dos combustiveis (GN e eletricidade), foi desenvolvido um modelo de custos robusto para os sistemas de GD, que e menos afetado por perturbacoes relativas aos custos de combustivel. A aplicacao do modelo proposto foi testada num caso de estudo real, um edificio comercial localizado na cidade de Coimbra, em Portugal.

Piezoresponse force microscopy of ferroelectric relaxors =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiselev, Dmitry

Nesta tese, ferroelectricos relaxor (I dont know uf the order is correct) de base Pb das familias (Pb,La)(Zr,Ti)O3 (PLZT), Pb(Mg1/3,Nb2/3)O3-PbTiO3 (PMN-PT), Pb(Zn1/3,Nb2/3)O3-PbTiO3 (PZN-PT) foram investigados e analisados. As propriedades ferroelectricas e dielectricas das amostras foram estudadas por metodos convencionais de macro e localmente por microscopia de forca piezoelectrica (PFM). Nos cerâmicos PLZT 9.75/65/35 o contraste da PFM a escala nanometrica foi investigado em funcao do tamanho e orientacao dos graos. Apurou-se que a intensidade do sinal piezoelectrico das nanoestruturas diminui com o aumento da temperatura e desaparece a 490 K (La mol. 8%) e 420 K (9,5%). Os ciclos de histerese locais foram obtidos em funcao da temperatura. A evolucao dos parâmetros macroscopicos e locais com a temperatura de superficie sugere um forte efeito de superficie nas transicoes de fase ferroelectricas do material investigado. A rugosidade da parede de dominio e determinada por PFM para a estrutura de dominio natural existente neste ferroelectrico policristalino. Alem disso, os dominios ferroelectricos artificiais foram criados pela aplicacao de pulsos electricos a ponta do condutor PFM e o tamanho de dominio in-plane foi medido em funcao da duracao do pulso. Todas estas experiencias levaram a conclusao de que a parede de dominio em relaxors do tipo PZT e quase uma interface unidimensional. O mecanismo de contraste na superficie de relaxors do tipo PLZT e medido por PFMAs estruturas de dominio versus evolucao da profundidade foram estudadas em cristais PZN-4,5%PT, com diferentes orientacoes atraves da PFM. Padroes de dominio irregulares com tamanhos tipicos de 20-100 nm foram observados nas superficies com orientacao das amostras unpoled?. Pelo contrario, os cortes de cristal exibem dominios regulares de tamanho micron normal, com os limites do dominio orientados ao longo dos planos cristalograficos permitidos. A existencia de nanodominios em cristais com orientacao esta provisoriamente (wrong Word) atribuida a natureza relaxor de PZN-PT, onde pequenos grupos polares podem formar-se em coindicoes de zero-field-cooling (ZFC). Estes nanodominios sao considerados como os nucleos do estado de polarizacao oposta e podem ser responsaveis pelo menor campo coercitivo para este corte de cristal em particular. No entanto, a histerese local piezoeletrica realizada pelo PFM a escala nanometrica indica uma mudanca de comportamento de PZN-PT semelhante para ambas as orientacoes cristalograficas investigadas. A evolucao das estruturas de dominio com polimento abaixo da superficie do cristal foi investigada. O dominio de ramificacoes e os efeitos de polarizacao de triagem apos o polimento e as medicoes de temperatura tem sido estudados pela PFM e pela analise SEM. Alem disso, verificou-se que a intensidade do sinal piezoelectrico a partir das estruturas de nanodominio diminui com o aumento da temperatura, acabando por desaparecer aos 430 K (orientacao ) e 470 K (orientacao ). Esta diferenca de temperatura nas transicoes de fase local em cristais de diferentes orientacoes e explicada pelo forte efeito de superficie na transicao da fase ferroeletrica em relaxors. A comutacao da polarizacao em relaxor ergodico e nas fases ferroelectricas do sistema PMN-PT foram realizadas pela combinacao de tres metodos, Microscopia de Forca Piezoelectrica, medicao de um unico ponto de relaxamento eletromecânico e por ultimo mapeamento de espectroscopia de tensao. A dependencia do comportamento do relaxamento na amplitude e tempo da tensao de pulso foi encontrada para seguir um comportamento logaritmico universal com uma inclinacao quase constante. Este comportamento e indicativo da progressiva populacao dos estados de relaxamento lento, ao contrario de uma relaxacao linear na presenca de uma ampla distribuicao do tempo de relaxamento. O papel do comportamento de relaxamento, da nao-linearidade ferroelectrica e da heterogeneidade espacial do campo na ponta da sonda de AFM sobre o comportamento do ciclo de histerese e analisada em detalhe. Os ciclos de histerese para ergodica PMN- 10%PT sao mostrados como cineticamente limitados, enquanto que no PMN, com maior teor de PT, sao observados verdadeiros ciclos de histerese ferroelectrica com vies de baixa nucleacao.

Labeling of lectin receptors during the cell cycle.

PubMed

Garrido, J

1976-12-01

Labeling of lectin receptors during the cell cycle. (Localizabión de receptores para lectinas durante el ciclo celular). Arch. Biol. Med. Exper. 10: 100-104, 1976. The topographic distribution of specific cell surface receptors for concanavalin A and wheat germ agglutinin was studied by ultrastructural labeling in the course of the cell cycle. C12TSV5 cells were synchronized by double thymidine block or mechanical selection (shakeoff). They were labeled by means of lectin-peroxidase techniques while in G1 S, G2 and M phases of the cycle. The results obtained were similar for both lectins employed. Interphase cells (G1 S, G2) present a stlihtly discontinous labeling pattern that is similar to the one observed on unsynchronized cells of the same line. Cells in mitosis, on the contrary, present a highly discontinous distribution of reaction product. This pattern disappears after the cells enters G1 and is not present on mitotic cells fixed in aldehyde prior to labeling.

Annual Activity Density of groundbeetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) of a Celtis ehrenbergiana (Rosales: Celtidaceae) Forest of Buenos Aires Province, Argentina

PubMed Central

Castro, Adela V.; Porrini, Darío P.; Cicchino, Armando C.

2014-01-01

Abstract The aim of this study was to describe the annual activity cycle, the sex ratio, and the relationship between the weather variables and activity density of the 16 most abundant carabid species of a typical southeastern region of Pampasia, Argentina. The study focused on the southernmost Celtis ehrenbergiana (Klotzsch) Liebmann ( =  C. tala Guillies ex Planch) native forest of the region, from March 2008 to March 2009, a period during which there was a marked draught associated with the La Niña phenomenon. Forty-five pitfall traps were emptied once every 2 wk, and the occurrence of larvae, tenerals, and subtenerals was recorded. Photoperiod, temperature, and precipitations explained 35% of the total variation in the catch. Total carabid activity was high in early autumn and late spring. Eight species reached their maximum activity in spring, five in winter, two in summer, and one in autumn. Possible reproductive strategies, the influence of different variables involved in the life cycles of the species, and the sex ratio and their limitations are discussed. RESUMEN El objetivo de este trabajo fue describir la proporción de sexos, el ciclo de actividad annual, la relación entre las variables meteorológicas y la actividad de las 16 especies más frecuentes de carábidos de una región típica del sudeste de la Pampasia, Argentina. El trabajo se enfocó en el talar, C. ehrenbergiana (Klotzsch) Liebmann ( =  C. tala Guillies ex Planch), más austral de la región, durante marzo 2008-marzo 2009, período marcado por una sequía asociada con el fenómeno La Niña. Se utilizaron 45 trampas “pitfall” recambiadas quincenalmente. Se registró la presencia de larvas, tenerales y subtenerales. El fotoperíodo, la temperatura y las precipitaciones explicaron el 35% de la variación en el número de total de individuos. La actividad total de los carábidos fue alta en otoño temprano y primavera tardía. Ocho especies alcanzaron el pico de máxima actividad en primavera; cinco en invierno; dos en verano y una en otoño. Se discuten posibles estrategias reproductivas, la influencia de las variables involucradas en los ciclos de vida de las especies y la proporción de sexos y sus limitaciones. PMID:25525112

Analysis of the stability of housekeeping gene expression in the left cardiac ventricle of rats submitted to chronic intermittent hypoxia.

PubMed

Julian, Guilherme Silva; Oliveira, Renato Watanabe de; Tufik, Sergio; Chagas, Jair Ribeiro

2016-01-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with oxidative stress and various cardiovascular consequences, such as increased cardiovascular disease risk. Quantitative real-time PCR is frequently employed to assess changes in gene expression in experimental models. In this study, we analyzed the effects of chronic intermittent hypoxia (an experimental model of OSA) on housekeeping gene expression in the left cardiac ventricle of rats. Analyses via four different approaches-use of the geNorm, BestKeeper, and NormFinder algorithms; and 2-ΔCt (threshold cycle) data analysis-produced similar results: all genes were found to be suitable for use, glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase and 18S being classified as the most and the least stable, respectively. The use of more than one housekeeping gene is strongly advised. RESUMO A apneia obstrutiva do sono (AOS) tem sido associada ao estresse oxidativo e a várias consequências cardiovasculares, tais como risco aumentado de doença cardiovascular. A PCR quantitativa em tempo real é frequentemente empregada para avaliar alterações na expressão gênica em modelos experimentais. Neste estudo, analisamos os efeitos da hipóxia intermitente crônica (um modelo experimental de AOS) na expressão de genes de referência no ventrículo cardíaco esquerdo de ratos. Análises a partir de quatro abordagens - uso dos algoritmos geNorm, BestKeeper e NormFinder e análise de dados 2-ΔCt (ciclo limiar) - produziram resultados semelhantes: todos os genes mostraram-se adequados para uso, sendo que gliceraldeído-3-fosfato desidrogenase e 18S foram classificados como o mais e o menos estável, respectivamente. A utilização de mais de um gene de referência é altamente recomendada.

Comportamiento de la cromósfera solar en la línea H-alpha durante el ciclo 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davoli, D.; Aquilano, R.; Missio, H.

Using the instrumental of the Observatorio Astronómico Municipal de Rosario (OAMR), we analyze the solar chromospheric activity during an approximate period of 11 years. The instrument is a Carl Zeiss refractor telescope of 150 mm aperture and 2250 mm of focal distance with monochromatic filter in the H-alpha line. We take as proxy for the solar activity the area covered by chromospheric plages. Simultaneously, we determine the relative wolf number from observations of the solar photosphere. We describe our technique and the results obtained. We observe 2 maxima of solar activity in the years 2000 and 2001 respectively, and a later decrease of this activity with low average values starting around 2006 that corresponds to the end of cycle 23. FULL TEXT IN SPANISH

Pain from the life cycle perspective: Evaluation and Measurement through psychophysical methods of category estimation and magnitude estimation.

PubMed

Sousa, Fátima Aparecida Emm Faleiros; Silva, Talita de Cássia Raminelli da; Siqueira, Hilze Benigno de Oliveira Moura; Saltareli, Simone; Gomez, Rodrigo Ramon Falconi; Hortense, Priscilla

2016-08-18

to describe acute and chronic pain from the perspective of the life cycle. participants: 861 people in pain. The Multidimensional Pain Evaluation Scale (MPES) was used. in the category estimation method the highest descriptors of chronic pain for children/ adolescents were "Annoying" and for adults "Uncomfortable". The highest descriptors of acute pain for children/adolescents was "Complicated"; and for adults was "Unbearable". In magnitude estimation method, the highest descriptors of chronic pain was "Desperate" and for descriptors of acute pain was "Terrible". the MPES is a reliable scale it can be applied during different stages of development. descrever a dor aguda e a crônica na perspectiva do ciclo vital. Métodos: participaram 861 pessoas com dor. Foi utilizada a Escala Multidimensional de Avaliação da Dor (EMADOR). Resultados: no método da estimação de categoria o descritor da dor crônica de maior atribuição para crianças e adolescentes foi "Chata" e para adultos foi "Desconfortável". Os descritores de maior atribuição para dor aguda em crianças e adolescentes foram "Complicada" e em adultos "Insuportável". No método de estimação de magnitude, o descritor de maior atribuição na dor crônica foi "Atormentadora" e na dor aguda foi "Terrível". a EMADOR é uma escala confiável e pode ser utilizada nas diferentes etapas do desenvolvimento humano. la descripción del dolor agudo y crónico desde las perspectiva del ciclo de vida. participaron 861 personas con dolor. Se utilizó la Escala Multidimensional de Evaluación del Dolor (EMEDOR). en el método de estimación de categoría el descriptor de dolor crónico más alto para niños y adolescentes fue de Molesto y para adultos fue Incómodo. Los descriptores mayores de dolor agudo para niños y adolescentes fueron Complejo y para adultos Insoportable. En el método de estimación de magnitud, el mayor descriptor de dolor crónico fueron Atormentador y el mayor de dolor agudo fue Terrible. la EMEDOR es una escala confiable y puede ser utilizada en diferentes etapas de desarrollo.

Improving integrated waste management at the regional level: the case of Lombardia.

PubMed

Rigamonti, Lucia; Falbo, Alida; Grosso, Mario

2013-09-01

The article summarises the main results of the 'Gestione Rifiuti in Lombardia: Analisi del ciclo di vita' (Waste management in Lombardia region: Life cycle assessment; GERLA) project. Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been selected by Regione Lombardia as a strategic decision support tool in the drafting of its new waste management programme. The goal was to use the life cycle thinking approach to assess the current regional situation and thus to give useful strategic indications for the future waste management. The first phase of the study consisted of the LCA of the current management of municipal waste in the Lombardia region (reference year: 2009). The interpretation of such results has allowed the definition of four possible waste management scenarios for the year 2020, with the final goal being to improve the environmental performance of the regional system. The results showed that the current integrated waste management of Lombardia region is already characterised by good energy and environmental performances. However, there is still room for further improvement: actions based, on the one hand, on a further increase in recycling rates and, on the other hand, on a series of technological modifications, especially in food waste and residual waste management, can be undertaken to improve the overall system.

Life Course Experiences, Pain and Suffering: A Case Study of an Older Mexican American Woman with Mobility Impairment

PubMed Central

Walker, Janiece L.; Harrison, Tracie C.; Hendrickson, Sherry G.

2012-01-01

There is a dearth of literature examining how adversity shapes the experiences of pain and/or suffering in a middle aged Mexican American women. The purpose of this qualitative descriptive study was to understand pain and suffering from a life course perspective as described by a Mexican American woman aging with early onset mobility impairment. This Hispanic woman experienced episodes of abuse and rejection over the life course, which may have significantly influenced her pain and suffering experience in adulthood. This adds to the literature on how adversity influences later life pain experience and provides insight on why pharmacological treatment alone may not be as successful as a holistic intervention. Hay escasez de literatura que examine cómo la adversidad da forma a las experiencias de dolor y / o sufrimiento en mujeres mexicana-americana mayores de edad. El propósito de este estudio descriptivo cualitativo fue comprender el dolor y el sufrimiento desde una perspectiva de ciclo de vida como descrito por una mujer mexicana-americana envejeciendo con inicio temprano de deterioro de movilidad. Esta Latina experimentó episodios de maltrato y rechazo, que se percibió haber afectado su experiencia de dolor y sufrimiento luego como adulta. Este estudio aumenta la literatura sobre cómo la adversidad influya la experiencia de dolor más tarde en la vida, y nos permite comprender mejor como el tratamiento farmacológico por sí solo no es tan exitoso como pueda ser una intervención integral. PMID:24830728

PubMed

Valladares, Macarena; Campos, Brianda; Zapata, Camila; Durán Agüero, Samuel; Obregón, Ana María

2016-11-29

Introducción: existen características respecto a los ritmos circadianos (ciclo sueño-vigilia), lo que genera un rasgo denominado cronotipo (madrugador o trasnochador). Se ha asociado el cronotipo vespertino a menos horas de sueño y hábitos alimentarios poco saludables. El cronotipo vespertino se asocia con un mayor riesgo de desarrollar obesidad.Objetivo: determinar la asociación del cronotipo con variables antropométricas en jóvenes de 18 a 25 años.Métodos: jóvenes (n = 65) (18 a 25 años), se les determinó el cronotipo (cuestionario de Horne-Ostberg) y mediciones antropométricas (peso, talla, porcentaje de grasa y perímetro de cintura). Resultados: los hombres con cronotipo trasnochador presentaron significativamente mayor perímetro de cintura (p = 0,03). Las mujeres con un porcentaje de grasa < 25% se asoció con cronotipo trasnochador (p = 0,05). Conclusiones: el cronotipo trasnochador se asocia a mayor perímetro de cintura y mayor porcentaje de grasa. El cronotipo constituye un nuevo foco para la prevención y el tratamiento de la obesidad.

Use of simulated patients to evaluate combined oral contraceptive dispensing practices of community pharmacists.

PubMed

Obreli-Neto, Paulo Roque; Pereira, Leonardo Régis Leira; Guidoni, Camilo Molino; de Oliveira Baldoni, André; Marusic, Srecko; de Lyra-Júnior, Divaldo Pereira; de Almeida, Kelsen Luis; Pazete, Ana Claudia Montolezi; do Nascimento, Janaina Dutra; Kos, Mitja; Girotto, Edmarlon; Cuman, Roberto Kenji Nakamura

2013-01-01

Combined oral contraceptive (COC) use is the most commonly used reversible method of birth control. The incorrect use of COCs is frequent and one of the most common causes of unintended pregnancies. Community pharmacists (CPs) are in a strategic position to improve COC use because they are the last health professional to interact with patients before drug use. To evaluate the COC dispensing practices of CPs in a developing country. A cross-sectional study was conducted in community pharmacies of Assis and Ourinhos microregions, Brazil, between June 1, 2012, and October 30, 2012. Four simulated patients (SPs) (with counseled audio recording) visited community pharmacies with a prescription for Ciclo 21(®) (a COC containing ethinyl estradiol 30 mcg + levonorgestrel 15 mcg). The audio recording of every SP visit was listened to independently by 3 researchers to evaluate the COC dispensing practice. The percentage of CPs who performed a screening for safe use of COCs (i.e., taking of patients' medical and family history, and measuring of blood pressure) and provided counseling, as well as the quality of the screening and counseling, were evaluated. Of the 185 CPs contacted, 41 (22.2%) agreed to participate in the study and finished the study protocol. Only 3 CPs asked the SP a question (1 question asked by each professional), and all of the questions were closed-ended, viz., "do you smoke?" (n = 2) and "what is your age?" (n = 1). None of the CPs measured the patient's blood pressure. Six CPs provided counseling when dispensing COCs (drug dosing, 5 CPs; possible adverse effects, 2 CPs), and one CP provided counseling regarding both aspects. The CPs evaluated did not dispense COC appropriately and could influence in the occurrence of negatives therapeutic outcomes such as adverse effects and treatment failure.

Increasing severity of damage caused by floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (1960-2014), climate change or vulnerability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, Alfredo; Gil, Salvador; Lopez, Francisco; Barriendos, Mariano

2016-04-01

In recent decades, there has been an increase in physical and economic losses (WMO, CRED and UCL, 2014) that raises serious concerns in society. Climate change projections may explain the rise in flood losses; however, these shouldn't be considered yet (Bouwer, 2011). According to IPCC (2014), there is low confidence in anthropogenic climate change affecting the frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods on a global scale. In other words, this increase in flood events is not completely related to the higher frequency of heavy rainfall. To illustrate the aforementioned, a spatial example can be seen in the study area. In the Spanish Mediterranean coast, we see an increase in economic losses within the last 50 years due to flood events (Gil et al., 2014). It seems that the socio-economic growth and the rise of housing construction (Gaja, 2008) have led to an increase in vulnerability and exposure which are mainly responsible for those losses and the increase in severity of flood events (Pérez et al., 2015). Furthermore, this situation will probably become more precarious if some climate forecasts are met [IPCC, 2014; AEMET, 2015], and if the economic model fails to adopt efficient adaptive measures. Therefore, it is interesting to focus attention on social factors either within the present or future scenario in order to minimise the potential consequences and improve the adaptation. The main objective of this work focuses on the study of the evolution of the severity of the floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coast for the period (1960-2015). To do that, a statistical analysis of the data base [Gil et al., 2014; extended to the entire Spanish Mediterranean coast (MEDIFLOOD)] and a multiscale mapping (local, provincial and regional level) of the frequency of these events will take place in order to make comparisons and show spatiotemporal patterns according to the severity events evolution. Preliminary results show some interesting statistically significant relationships between severity and the increase of population and buildings mentioned above. Bibliography: AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) (2015). Proyecciones Climáticas para el siglo XXI en España. www.aemet.es/es/serviciosclimaticos/cambio_climat Bouwer L.M. (2011). Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 92. Gaja F. (2008). El 'tsunami urbanizador' en el litoral mediterráneo. El ciclo de hiperproducción inmobiliaria 1996-2006. Scripta Nova, 12. Gil S., Pérez A. & Barriendos M. (2014). Increasing vulnerability to flooding in the southern spanish mediterranean coast (1960-2013). In: Hydrological extreme events in historic and prehistoric times. Bonn (Germany). IPCC. (2014) Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri & L.A. Meyer, eds. Geneva, Switzerland. Pérez-Morales, A., Gil-Guirado, S., & Olcina-Cantos, J. (2015). Housing bubbles and the increase of flood exposure. Failures in flood risk management on the Spanish south-eastern coast (1975-2013). Journal of Flood Risk Management. WMO, CRED and UCL (2014). Atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes 1970-2012. Geneva, Switzerland.

Improvement actions in waste management systems at the provincial scale based on a life cycle assessment evaluation.

PubMed

Rigamonti, L; Falbo, A; Grosso, M

2013-11-01

This paper reports some of the findings of the 'GERLA' project: GEstione Rifiuti in Lombardia - Analisi del ciclo di vita (Waste management in Lombardia - Life cycle assessment). The project was devoted to support Lombardia Region in the drafting of the new waste management plan by applying a life cycle thinking perspective. The present paper mainly focuses on four Provinces in the Region, which were selected based on their peculiarities. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was adopted as the methodology to assess the current performance of the integrated waste management systems, to discuss strengths and weaknesses of each of them and to design their perspective evolution as of year 2020. Results show that despite a usual business approach that is beneficial to all the provinces, the introduction of technological and management improvements to the system provides in general additional energy and environmental benefits for all four provinces. The same improvements can be easily extended to the whole Region, leading to increased environmental benefits from the waste management sector, in line with the targets set by the European Union for 2020. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A proposed contents astronomy for basic education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albrecht, E.; Voelzke, M. R.

2014-08-01

A Astronomia é um tema que sempre exerceu fascínio sobre as pessoas de um modo geral. Conhecer e estudar o que há nos “céus”, além de nossos olhos, continua sendo instigador e de grande interesse. Baseado nestas justificativas desenvolveu-se uma pesquisa de Doutorado, na qual, o objetivo principal foi investigar sobre a presença dos conteúdos de Astronomia nas Propostas Curriculares da região Sul do Brasil, a saber, os estados de Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina e, posterior comparação com os Parâmetros Curriculares Nacionais (PCN) que trazem propostas de conteúdos para toda a Educação Básica brasileira. Tal investigação pautou-se na abordagem de caráter qualitativo e utilizouse para tal da Análise de Conteúdos (Bardin, 2011), que possibilitou a construção de quatro categorias, nas quais os conteúdos astronômicos foram agrupados: Terra, Sistema Solar, Via Láctea e Universo. Após a leitura, coleta de dados, construção de categorias, observou-se a dicotomia na apresentação destes conteúdos. As propostas curriculares analisadas foram as de Geografia, Ciências e Física dos estados do Paraná (2008), Rio Grande do Sul (2009) e de Santa Catarina (1998), responsáveis pelo trabalho com Astronomia nestes estados. No Ensino Fundamental, a proposta curricular do estado do Paraná apresenta conteúdos ligados à Astronomia desde o sexto ano até o nono ano, como conteúdo do primeiro bimestre, o que também é apresentado na proposta curricular do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, porém, este, não divide os conteúdos por bimestre e nem por ano, mas por ciclos, sexto e sétimo anos como primeiro ciclo e oitavo e nono anos como segundo ciclo, deixando livre para o professor estruturar sua sequência de conteúdos. A proposta curricular de Santa Catarina não apresenta estes conteúdos de maneira explícita, não divide dos conteúdos nem por ano, nem por série, traz uma sequência de conteúdos para serem trabalhados ao longo dos quatro anos, nos quais, aparecem timidamente alguns conteúdos de Astronomia. Para o Ensino Médio, as propostas curriculares do Paraná e de Santa Catarina parecem que se repetem, apresentando apenas o conteúdo Gravitação Universal, na primeira série do Ensino Médio, já a proposta curricular do Rio Grande do Sul, traz uma sequência que é proposta nos PCN (Brasil, 1998; 1999; 2002), na qual aparece o tema em questão, porém, em todos os anos, em todas as propostas, não há um detalhamento do que, de como trabalhar os conteúdos. O detalhamento facilita a prática pedagógica, pois, conteúdos simples como as Estações do Ano, Fases da Lua, sequer são citados nas propostas curriculares pesquisadas. Outro aspecto observado é que os conteúdos de um modo geral não trazem uma sequência e não primam por partir do entorno do aluno, daquilo que ele conhece para estruturar novos conceitos. Tais aspectos dificultam o fazer pedagógico, pois, por ser uma região com características culturais semelhantes, era esperado que as propostas fossem mais próximas, o! que facilitaria em muito, por exemplo, transferências dentro de um mesmo estado ou interestaduais. Pautando-se no que foi observado, na falta de especificidade dos conteúdos, clareza, sequência dos conteúdos e propostas de trabalho é proposto uma sequência de conteúdos de Astronomia, com materiais e recursos, pois, como apontado por Langhi e Nardi (2009), é necessário fornecer além da informação, do conteúdo, o como fazer. Tal proposta não visa estabelecer-se como regra, mas como suporte ao professor para facilitar sua prática pedagógica e tornar o trabalho com Astronomia presente nas escolas brasileiras. Bardin, L. Análise de conteúdo. Tradução Luís Antero Reto, Augusto Pinheiro. São Paulo: Edições 70, 2011. 279 p. Langhi, R; Nardi, R. Ensino da astronomia no Brasil: educação formal, informal, não-formal e divulgação científica. Revista Brasileira de Ensino de Física, v. 31, n. 4, p. 4402-1 a 4402-11, 2009.

Use of Simulated Patients to Evaluate Combined Oral Contraceptive Dispensing Practices of Community Pharmacists

PubMed Central

Obreli-Neto, Paulo Roque; Pereira, Leonardo Régis Leira; Guidoni, Camilo Molino; Baldoni, André de Oliveira; Marusic, Srecko; de Lyra-Júnior, Divaldo Pereira; de Almeida, Kelsen Luis; Pazete, Ana Claudia Montolezi; do Nascimento, Janaina Dutra; Kos, Mitja; Girotto, Edmarlon; Cuman, Roberto Kenji Nakamura

2013-01-01

Background Combined oral contraceptive (COC) use is the most commonly used reversible method of birth control. The incorrect use of COCs is frequent and one of the most common causes of unintended pregnancies. Community pharmacists (CPs) are in a strategic position to improve COC use because they are the last health professional to interact with patients before drug use. Objective To evaluate the COC dispensing practices of CPs in a developing country. Method A cross-sectional study was conducted in community pharmacies of Assis and Ourinhos microregions, Brazil, between June 1, 2012, and October 30, 2012. Four simulated patients (SPs) (with counseled audio recording) visited community pharmacies with a prescription for Ciclo 21® (a COC containing ethinyl estradiol 30 mcg + levonorgestrel 15 mcg). The audio recording of every SP visit was listened to independently by 3 researchers to evaluate the COC dispensing practice. The percentage of CPs who performed a screening for safe use of COCs (i.e., taking of patients’ medical and family history, and measuring of blood pressure) and provided counseling, as well as the quality of the screening and counseling, were evaluated. Results Of the 185 CPs contacted, 41 (22.2%) agreed to participate in the study and finished the study protocol. Only 3 CPs asked the SP a question (1 question asked by each professional), and all of the questions were closed-ended, viz., “do you smoke?” (n = 2) and “what is your age?” (n = 1). None of the CPs measured the patient’s blood pressure. Six CPs provided counseling when dispensing COCs (drug dosing, 5 CPs; possible adverse effects, 2 CPs), and one CP provided counseling regarding both aspects. Conclusion The CPs evaluated did not dispense COC appropriately and could influence in the occurrence of negatives therapeutic outcomes such as adverse effects and treatment failure. PMID:24324584

Severe maternal morbidity: a case-control study in Maranhao, Brazil

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Maternal mortality and morbidity are among the top public health priorities in Brazil, being quite high, especially among the most disadvantage women. A case control study was developed to identify risk factors for severe maternal morbidity in Sao Luis, one of the poorest Brazilian State Capitals. Methods The case–control study was carried out between 01/03/2009 and 28/02/2010 in two public high-risk maternities facilities and in two intensive care units (ICUs) for referral of obstetric cases. All cases hospitalized due to complications during gestation period, childbirth or up to 42 days of puerperium and who fulfilled any of Mantel's and/or Waterstone's criteria were identified. Two controls per case were randomly selected among patients of the same clinics discharged for other reasons. Data were obtained through a structured interview as well as from medical charts and prenatal cards and included sociodemographic variables, clinical and obstetric histories, behavioral factors and exposure to stress factors during pregnancy, pre-natal assistance and obstetric complication and childbirth care. Results In the final model of the unconditional logistic regression analysis, being older than 35 years (OR=3.11; 95% CI:1.53-6.31), previous hypertension (OR=2.52; 95% CI:1.09-5.80), history of abortion (OR=1.61; 95% CI:0.97-2.68), 4–5 pre-natal consultations (OR=1.78; 95% CI:1.05-3.01) and 1–3 pre-natal consultations (OR=1.89; 95% CI:1.03-3.49) were independently associated with severe maternal morbidity. Conclusions The results corroborate the importance of reproductive healthcare, of identifying a high-risk pregnancy and of a qualified and complete prenatal care to prevent severe morbid events. Resumo Introdução A mortalidade e morbidade maternas estão entre os tópicos prioritários da Saúde Pública brasileira, especialmente na população de menor nível socioeconômico. Um estudo caso-controle foi desenvolvido para identificar os fatores de risco para morbidade materna grave em São Luís, capital de um dos estados mais pobres do Brasil. Método Estudo caso-controle realizado em duas maternidades públicas de alto risco e duas UTIs de referência aos casos obstétricos entre 01/03/2009 e 28/02/2010. Foram incluídas todas as pacientes internadas por complicação do período grávido-puerperal e que preenchiam os critérios de Waterstone e/ou Mantel para morbidade materna grave. Foram selecionados para cada caso, dois controles por sorteio aleatório dentre as pacientes internadas no mesmo período e mesma maternidade que o caso. As informações de domínio sociodemográfico, clínico, obstétrico, comportamental, exposição a eventos estressores na gestação, assistência ao pré-natal, intercorrências obstétricas e atenção ao parto, foram obtidas por meio de entrevista estruturada. As variáveis foram analisadas por modelo de regressão logística múltipla não condicional, baseado em modelo hierarquizado a priori. Resultados Foram identificados como fatores de risco para morbidade materna grave: idade >35 anos (OR=3,11; IC 95%:1,53-6,31), hipertensão prévia à gestação (OR=2,52; IC 95%:1,09-5,80), antecedente de aborto (OR=1,61; IC 95%:0,97-2,68), ter realizado 4–5 consultas pré-natais (OR=1,78; IC 95%:1,05-3,01) ou 1–3 consultas (OR=1,89; IC 95%:1,03-3,49). Conclusão Os resultados do estudo corroboram a importância da assistência à saúde reprodutiva e o pré-natal completo e qualificado na prevenção de eventos mórbidos graves durante o ciclo grávido-puerperal. PMID:23399443

Cobertura de los sistemas de pensiones y factores asociados al acceso a una pensión de jubilación en México

PubMed Central

Murillo-López, Sandra; Venegas-Martínez, Francisco

2016-01-01

Resumen Objetivos: obtener estimaciones de indicadores de cobertura de las pensiones por jubilación o retiro para la población mexicana de 65 y más años, y evaluar el impacto que tienen los sistemas de pensiones en las transiciones al retiro de los adultos en edades medias y avanzadas en México. Para ello se utilizan datos microeconómicos provenientes de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Envejecimiento. Mediante análisis econométrico se identifican los factores sociodemográficos, económicos, laborales e institucionales que están asociados al acceso a una pensión de jubilación, o bien, a la dependencia de otras fuentes de ingresos. Se encontró que, en México, las transiciones al retiro del mercado de trabajo en las etapas avanzadas del ciclo de vida son limitadas debido a las características eminentemente contributivas de los esquemas de pensiones, los cuales favorecen a la población con trayectorias laborales formales y más estables asociadas a: características de género, oportunidades educativas y posibilidades de inserción en el mercado laboral. PMID:27524936

Development policy for the Brazilian health industry and qualification of national public laboratories.

PubMed

Viana, Ana Luiza d'Ávila; Silva, Hudson Pacifico da; Ibañez, Nelson; Iozzi, Fabíola Lana

2016-11-03

Technological innovations play a decisive role in societies' development by contributing to economic growth and the population's welfare. The state has a key role in this process by inducing innovative behavior, strategies, and decisions. This study addresses Brazil's current policy for development of the health industry and its effects on qualification of national public laboratories by contextualizing different cycles of interaction between health policy and the industrial base, discussing the government's development strategy and the transfer and absorption of health technology (through Industrial Development Partnerships), and presenting two current partnerships involving public laboratories in the production of medicines and vaccines. Resumo: As inovações tecnológicas jogam papel decisivo no processo de desenvolvimento das sociedades, visto que contribuem para gerar crescimento econômico e bem-estar da população. O Estado possui grande importância e centralidade nesse processo, pois pode induzir fortemente o comportamento, as estratégias e as decisões relativas à inovação. O presente artigo tem por objetivo investigar a atual política de desenvolvimento produtivo em saúde no Brasil e seus reflexos sobre a capacitação dos laboratórios públicos nacionais. Para essa finalidade, contextualiza os diferentes ciclos de interação entre a política de saúde e a sua base produtiva, discute a estratégia do governo brasileiro para o desenvolvimento, a transferência e a absorção de tecnologia na área da saúde (as parcerias para o desenvolvimento produtivo) e apresenta duas parcerias vigentes envolvendo laboratórios públicos para a produção de medicamentos e vacinas.

Logrank Test and Interval Overlap Test for Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae) Under Different Fertilization Treatments for 7705 Tomato Hybrid

PubMed Central

Vargas-Madríz, Haidel; Bautista-Martínez, Néstor; Vera-Graziano, Jorge; Sánchez-García, Prometeo; García-Gutiérrez, Cipriano; Sánchez-Soto, Saúl; de Jesús García-Avila, Clemente

2014-01-01

Abstract It is known that some nutrients can have both negative and positive effects on some populations of insects. To test this, the Logrank test and the Interval Overlap Test were evaluated for two crop cycles (February–May and May–August) of the 7705 tomato hybrid, and the effect on the psyllid, Bactericera cockerelli (Sulc.) (Hemiptera: Triozidae), was examined under greenhouse conditions. Tomato plants were in polythene bags and irrigated with the following solutions: T1—Steiner solution, T2—Steiner solution with nitrogen reduced to 25%, T3—Steiner solution with potassium reduced to 25%, and T4—Steiner solution with calcium reduced to 25%. In the Logrank test, a significant difference was found when comparing the survival parameters of B. cockerelli generated from the treatment cohorts: T1–T2; T1–T3; T1–T4; T2–T3; and T3–T4, while no significant differences were found in the T2–T4 comparison in the February–May cycle. In the May–August cycle, significant differences were found when comparing the survival parameters generated from the treatment cohorts: T1–T2; T1–T3; and T1–T4, while no significant differences were found in the T2–T3; T2–T4; and T3–T4 comparisons of survival parameters of B. cockerelli fed with the 7705 tomato hybrid. Also, the Interval Overlap Test was done on the treatment cohorts (T1, T2, T3, and T4) in the February–May and May–August cycles. T1 and T2 compare similarly in both cycles when feeding on the treatments up to 36 d. Similarly, in T1 and T3, the behavior of the insect is similar when feeding on the treatments up to 40 and 73 d, respectively. Comparisons T2–T3 and T2–T4 are similar when feeding on both treatments up to 42, 38 and 37, 63 d, respectively. Finally, the T3–T4 comparison was similar when feeding in both treatments up to 20 and 46 d, respectively. RESUMEN. Se sabe que algunos nutrientes pueden tener efectos tanto negativos como positivos en algunas poblaciones de insectos. Para probar esto se evaluó la prueba de rango logarítmico y la prueba de Overlap intervalo de dos ciclos de cultivo (febrero–mayo y mayo–agosto) del híbrido de tomate 7705 y el efecto sobre el psílido, Bactericera cockerelli (Sulc) (Hemiptera: Triozidae) fue examinado bajo condiciones de invernadero. Las plantas de tomate estaban en bolsas de polietileno y regadas con las siguientes soluciones: T1: Solución de Steiner, T2: solución de Steiner con Nitrógeno a 25%, T3: solución de Steiner con Potasio a 25% y T4: solución de Steiner con Calcio a 25%. En la prueba de Logrank se encontró diferencia significativa al comparar los parámetros de supervivencia que se generaron en las cohortes de los tratamientos, T1 – T2; T1 – T3; T1 – T4; T2 – T3 y T3 – T4. En la comparación de T2 – T4, no se encontraron diferencias significativas, entre los parámetros de supervivencia de B. cockerelli ; para el ciclo Mayo-Agosto, se encontró diferencia significativa al comparar los parámetros de supervivencia que se generaron en las cohortes de los tratamientos, T1 - T2; T1 – T3; T1 – T4; en las comparaciones de T2 – T3; T2 – T4; T3 – T4, no se encontraron diferencias significativas, entre los parámetros de supervivencia de B. cockerelli alimentados con el hibrido de tomate 7705. De igual manera se realizó la Prueba de Traslape de Intervalos para las cohortes de los tratamientos (T1, T2, T3 y T4) en los ciclos de Febrero-Mayo y de Mayo-Agosto, se puede observar que la comparación de T1 con T2, son similares cuando se alimenta en ambos tratamientos hasta los 36 días, respectivamente. De igual manera, en la comparación (T1 y T3), siendo similar cuando el insecto se alimenta en ambos tratamientos hasta los 40 y 37 días, respectivamente. Las comparaciones (T2 y T3) y (T2 y T4) es similar cuando se alimenta en ambos tratamientos hasta los (42, 38) y (37, 63) días, respectivamente. Finalmente, la comparación para (T3 y T4) fue similar cuando se alimenta en ambos tratamientos hasta los 20 y 46 días, respectivamente. PMID:25527579

Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouyère, Serge; Carabin, Guy; Dassargues, Alain

An integrated hydrological model (MOHISE) was developed in order to study the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in representative water basins in Belgium. This model considers most hydrological processes in a physically consistent way, more particularly groundwater flows which are modelled using a spatially distributed, finite-element approach. Thanks to this accurate numerical tool, after detailed calibration and validation, quantitative interpretations can be drawn from the groundwater model results. Considering IPCC climate change scenarios, the integrated approach was applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water cycle in the Geer basin in Belgium. The groundwater model is described in detail, and results are discussed in terms of climate change impact on the evolution of groundwater levels and groundwater reserves. From the modelling application on the Geer basin, it appears that, on a pluri-annual basis, most tested scenarios predict a decrease in groundwater levels and reserves in relation to variations in climatic conditions. However, for this aquifer, the tested scenarios show no enhancement of the seasonal changes in groundwater levels. Un modèle hydrologique intégré (MOHISE) a été développé afin d'étudier l'impact du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique de bassins versants représentatifs de Belgique. Ce modèle prend en compte tous les processus hydrologiques d'une manière physiquement consistante, plus particulièrement les écoulements souterrains qui sont modélisés par une approche spatialement distribuée aux éléments finis. Grâce à cet outil numérique précis, après une calibration et une validation détaillées, des interprétations quantitatives peuvent être réalisées à partir des résultats du modèle de nappe. Considérant des scénarios de changements climatiques de l'IPCC, l'approche intégrée a été appliquée pour évaluer l'impact du changement climatique sur le cycle de l'eau du bassin du Geer en Belgique. Le modèle de nappe est décrit en détail et les résultats sont discutés en terme d'impact du changement climatique sur l'évolution des réserves souterraines. Les premiers résultats indiquent que des déficits d'eau souterraine peuvent apparaître dans le futur en Belgique. Se ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico integrado (MOHISE) para estudiar el impacto del cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de cuencas representativas en Bélgica. Este modelo considera todos los procesos hidrológicos de forma coherente, especialmente en relación con los flujos de aguas subterráneas, que son modelados por medio de un enfoque de elementos finitos espacialmente distribuidos. Gracias a esta herramienta numérica precisa, y tras una calibración y validación detalladas, se puede obtener interpretaciones cuantitativas de los resultados del modelo del acuífero. Considerando escenarios de cambio climático IPCC, se ha aplicado el enfoque integrado a la evaluación del impacto de dicho cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de la cuenca del Geer. Se describe los detalles y resultados del modelo de las aguas subterráneas en términos del impacto del cambio climático en la evolución de las reservas de los acuíferos. Los resultados preliminares indican que es posible esperar déficits de aguas subterráneas en un futuro en Bélgica.

Description of the immature stages of the planthopper Lacertinella australis (Hemiptera: Delphacidae)

PubMed Central

Batiz, M. F. Rossi; Marino de Remes Lenicov, A. M.; Hagedorn, Henry

2014-01-01

Abstract The five immature stages of the planthopper Lacertinella australis (Remes Lenicov and Rossi Batiz) (Hemiptera: Delphacidae: Saccharosydnini) are described and illustrated. The main characters that allowed us to distinguish the various stages were body size, number of tarsomeres and metatibial spines, and number of teeth on the spur. New biological data based on laboratory rearing and field observations showed that L. australis can carry out its biological cycle successfully on the graminaceous pampas grass ( Cortaderia spp. Stapf (Poales: Poaceae)). In addition, the efficient rearing in captivity, the high survivorship registered, and overwintering only on this host plant suggests that L. australis is a potential biocontrol agent of this invasive graminaceous weed. This study provides information about the immature stages , including a key for their identification, based on laboratory reared specimens and field observations. Resumen Se describen e ilustran las cinco etapas inmaduras de la especie de Saccharisydnini Lacertinella australis (Remes Lenicov and Rossi Batiz) (Hemiptera: Delphacidae). Los principales caracteres que permitieron distinguir las diferentes etapas fueron: tamaño corporal, número de espinas en los tarsómeros y metatibia y número de dientes en el espolón tibial. Nuevos datos biológicos, basados en la cría de laboratorio y observaciones de campo, mostraron que L. australis puede realizar su ciclo biológico exitosamente en la graminácea cortadera ( Cortaderia spp. Stapf (Poales: Poaceae)). Además, la eficiente crianza en cautive-rio y la alta supervivencia registrada en esta planta hospedera, sugieren que L. australis podría ser usada como un potencial agente de control biológico de esta maleza invasora. Este estudio proporciona informa-ción sobre las etapas inmaduras, incluyendo una clave para su identificación, basada en individuos provenientes de la cría de laboratorio y de campo. PMID:25199992

Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Cohort Studies of Suicide Risk Assessment among Psychiatric Patients: Heterogeneity in Results and Lack of Improvement over Time

PubMed Central

Large, Matthew; Kaneson, Muthusamy; Myles, Nicholas; Myles, Hannah; Gunaratne, Pramudie; Ryan, Christopher

2016-01-01

Objective It is widely assumed that the clinical care of psychiatric patients can be guided by estimates of suicide risk and by using patient characteristics to define a group of high-risk patients. However, the statistical strength and reliability of suicide risk categorization is unknown. Our objective was to investigate the odds of suicide in high-risk compared to lower-risk categories and the suicide rates in high-risk and lower-risk groups. Method We located longitudinal cohort studies where psychiatric patients or people who had made suicide attempts were stratified into high-risk and lower-risk groups for suicide with suicide mortality as the outcome by searching for peer reviewed publications indexed in PubMed or PsychINFO. Electronic searches were supplemented by hand searching of included studies and relevant review articles. Two authors independently extracted data regarding effect size, study population and study design from 53 samples of risk-assessed patients reported in 37 studies. Results The pooled odds of suicide among high-risk patients compared to lower-risk patients calculated by random effects meta-analysis was of 4.84 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 3.79–6.20). Between-study heterogeneity was very high (I2 = 93.3). There was no evidence that more recent studies had greater statistical strength than older studies. Over an average follow up period of 63 months the proportion of suicides among the high-risk patients was 5.5% and was 0.9% among lower-risk patients. The meta-analytically derived sensitivity and specificity of a high-risk categorization were 56% and 79% respectively. There was evidence of publication bias in favour of studies that inflated the pooled odds of suicide in high-risk patients. Conclusions The strength of suicide risk categorizations based on the presence of multiple risk factors does not greatly exceed the association between individual suicide risk factors and suicide. A statistically strong and reliable method to usefully distinguish patients with a high-risk of suicide remains elusive. PMID:27285387

Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

PubMed

Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

2016-11-01

Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

PubMed

Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

2013-10-01

Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

10-Year Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Using Coronary Artery Calcium and Traditional Risk Factors: Derivation in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) With Validation in the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall) Study and the DHS (Dallas Heart Study).

PubMed

McClelland, Robyn L; Jorgensen, Neal W; Budoff, Matthew; Blaha, Michael J; Post, Wendy S; Kronmal, Richard A; Bild, Diane E; Shea, Steven; Liu, Kiang; Watson, Karol E; Folsom, Aaron R; Khera, Amit; Ayers, Colby; Mahabadi, Amir-Abbas; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Carr, J Jeffrey; Erbel, Raimund; Burke, Gregory L

2015-10-13

Several studies have demonstrated the tremendous potential of using coronary artery calcium (CAC) in addition to traditional risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction. However, to date, no risk score incorporating CAC has been developed. The goal of this study was to derive and validate a novel risk score to estimate 10-year CHD risk using CAC and traditional risk factors. Algorithm development was conducted in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective community-based cohort study of 6,814 participants age 45 to 84 years, who were free of clinical heart disease at baseline and followed for 10 years. MESA is sex balanced and included 39% non-Hispanic whites, 12% Chinese Americans, 28% African Americans, and 22% Hispanic Americans. External validation was conducted in the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study) and the DHS (Dallas Heart Study). Inclusion of CAC in the MESA risk score offered significant improvements in risk prediction (C-statistic 0.80 vs. 0.75; p < 0.0001). External validation in both the HNR and DHS studies provided evidence of very good discrimination and calibration. Harrell's C-statistic was 0.779 in HNR and 0.816 in DHS. Additionally, the difference in estimated 10-year risk between events and nonevents was approximately 8% to 9%, indicating excellent discrimination. Mean calibration, or calibration-in-the-large, was excellent for both studies, with average predicted 10-year risk within one-half of a percent of the observed event rate. An accurate estimate of 10-year CHD risk can be obtained using traditional risk factors and CAC. The MESA risk score, which is available online on the MESA web site for easy use, can be used to aid clinicians when communicating risk to patients and when determining risk-based treatment strategies. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and External Validation of a Melanoma Risk Prediction Model Based on Self-assessed Risk Factors.

PubMed

Vuong, Kylie; Armstrong, Bruce K; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Lund, Eiliv; Adami, Hans-Olov; Veierod, Marit B; Barrett, Jennifer H; Davies, John R; Bishop, D Timothy; Whiteman, David C; Olsen, Catherine M; Hopper, John L; Mann, Graham J; Cust, Anne E; McGeechan, Kevin

2016-08-01

Identifying individuals at high risk of melanoma can optimize primary and secondary prevention strategies. To develop and externally validate a risk prediction model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma using self-assessed risk factors. We used unconditional logistic regression to develop a multivariable risk prediction model. Relative risk estimates from the model were combined with Australian melanoma incidence and competing mortality rates to obtain absolute risk estimates. A risk prediction model was developed using the Australian Melanoma Family Study (629 cases and 535 controls) and externally validated using 4 independent population-based studies: the Western Australia Melanoma Study (511 case-control pairs), Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls), Epigene-QSkin Study (44 544, of which 766 with melanoma), and Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study (49 259 women, of which 273 had melanoma). We validated model performance internally and externally by assessing discrimination using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Additionally, using the Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study, we assessed model calibration and clinical usefulness. The risk prediction model included hair color, nevus density, first-degree family history of melanoma, previous nonmelanoma skin cancer, and lifetime sunbed use. On internal validation, the AUC was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.73). On external validation, the AUC was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69) in the Western Australia Melanoma Study, 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70) in the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study, 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62-0.66) in the Epigene-QSkin Study, and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.67) in the Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study. Model calibration showed close agreement between predicted and observed numbers of incident melanomas across all deciles of predicted risk. In the external validation setting, there was higher net benefit when using the risk prediction model to classify individuals as high risk compared with classifying all individuals as high risk. The melanoma risk prediction model performs well and may be useful in prevention interventions reliant on a risk assessment using self-assessed risk factors.

Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dillaman, Gary

2012-01-01

The Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight study analyzes risk management in large enterprises and how to effectively communicate risks across organizations. The Calysto Risk Management tool developed by NASA's Kennedy Space Center's SharePoint team is used and referenced throughout the study. Calysto is a web-base tool built on Microsoft's SharePoint platform. The risk management process at NASA is examined and incorporated in the study. Using risk management standards from industry and specific organizations at the Kennedy Space Center, three methods of communicating and elevating risk are examined. Each method describes details of the effectiveness and plausibility of using the method in the Calysto Risk Management Tool. At the end of the study suggestions are made for future renditions of Calysto.

HIV Risk Perception, HIV Knowledge, and Sexual Risk Behaviors among Transgender Women in South Florida.

PubMed

De Santis, Joseph P; Hauglum, Shayne D; Deleon, Diego A; Provencio-Vasquez, Elias; Rodriguez, Allan E

2017-05-01

Transgender women experience a variety of factors that may contribute to HIV risk. The purpose of this study was to explore links among HIV risk perception, knowledge, and sexual risk behaviors of transgender women. A descriptive, correlational study design was used. Fifty transgender women from the South Florida area were enrolled in the study. Transgender women completed a demographic questionnaire and standardized instruments measuring HIV risk perception, knowledge, and sexual risk behaviors. Transgender women reported low levels of HIV risk perception, and had knowledge deficits regarding HIV risk/transmission. Some participants engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors. Predictors of sexual risk behaviors among transgender women were identified. More research is needed with a larger sample size to continue studying factors that contribute to sexual risk behaviors in the understudied population of transgender women. Evidence-based guidelines are available to assist public health nurses in providing care for transgender women. Nurses must assess HIV perception risk and HIV knowledge and provide relevant education to transgender women on ways to minimize sexual risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Defining moments in risk communication research: 1996-2005.

PubMed

McComas, Katherine A

2006-01-01

Ten years ago, scholars suggested that risk communication was embarking on a new phase that would give increased attention to the social contexts that surround and encroach on public responses to risk information. A decade later, many researchers have answered the call, with several defining studies examining the social and psychological influences on risk communication. This article reviews risk communication research appearing in the published literature since 1996. Among studies, social trust, the social amplification of risk framework, and the affect heuristic figured prominently. Also common were studies examining the influence of risk in the mass media. Among these were content analyses of media coverage of risk, as well as investigations of possible effects resulting from coverage. The use of mental models was a dominant method for developing risk message content. Other studies examined the use of risk comparisons, narratives, and visuals in the production of risk messages. Research also examined how providing information about a risk's severity, social norms, and efficacy influenced communication behaviors and intentions to follow risk reduction measures. Methods for conducting public outreach in health risk communication rounded out the literature.

Not all risks are created equal: A twin study and meta-analyses of risk taking across seven domains.

PubMed

Wang, X T Xiao-Tian; Zheng, Rui; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Chen, Jie; Li, Shu

2016-11-01

Humans routinely deal with both traditional and novel risks. Different kinds of risks have been a driving force for both evolutionary adaptations and personal development. This study explored the genetic and environmental influences on human risk taking in different task domains. Our approach was threefold. First, we integrated several scales of domain-specific risk-taking propensity and developed a synthetic scale, including both evolutionarily typical and modern risks in the following 7 domains: cooperation/competition, safety, reproduction, natural/physical risk, moral risk, financial risk, and gambling. Second, we conducted a twin study using the scale to estimate the contributions of genes and environment to risk taking in each of these 7 domains. Third, we conducted a series of meta-analyses of extant twin studies across the 7 risk domains. The results showed that individual differences in risk-taking propensity and its consistency across domains were mainly regulated by additive genetic influences and individually unique environmental experiences. The heritability estimates from the meta-analyses ranged from 29% in financial risk taking to 55% in safety. Supporting the notion of risk-domain specificity, both the behavioral and genetic correlations among the 7 domains were generally low. Among the relatively few correlations between pairs of risk domains, our analysis revealed a common genetic factor that regulates moral, financial, and natural/physical risk taking. This is the first effort to separate genetic and environmental influences on risk taking across multiple domains in a single study and integrate the findings of extant twin studies via a series of meta-analyses conducted in different task domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Alcohol demand and risk preference.

PubMed

Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

2008-12-01

Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6-8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use.

Risk factors and study designs used in research of youths' suicide behaviour-an epidemiological discussion with focus on level of evidence.

PubMed

Christiansen, Erik; Larsen, Kim Juul; Agerbo, Esben; Bilenberg, Niels; Stenager, Elsebeth

2014-11-01

Abstract Introduction: Many different epidemiology study designs have been used to analyse risk factors for suicide behaviour. The purpose of this study was to obtain an insight into the current study design used in research on youths' risk factors for suicide behaviour and to rank the studies according to level of evidence (LoE). We searched PubMed and psycINFO in order to identify relevant individual studies. We included 36 studies of children and youth on suicidal behaviour and ideation-many rank low on LoE. For suicide, cohort design was often used, and mental illness (depression, substance abuse and severity of mental illness) was the most common risk factor. Cohort studies are ranked 2b, which is high according to LoE. For suicide attempts, survey was often used, and psychopathology, substance abuse and being exposed to suicidal behaviour were the most common risk factors. For suicidal ideation, survey was the only design used, and substance abuse and psychopathology the most common risk factors. Surveys are ranked 4, which are low according to LoE. Many risk factors were broad and unspecific, and standard definitions of outcome and exposure were rarely used. A good study of risk factors for suicidal behaviour would need a high LoE, as a high-powered longitudinal epidemiological study (cohort or case-control) of very specific risk factors. The factors would have high prevention potential, compared with more broad and unspecific risk factors, to which many people are exposed. We would recommend a cohort design (in high-risk populations) or a case-control design to identify risk factors, using clinical and/or register data instead of self-reported information, reporting adjusted estimates and using standard definition of suicidal outcome and risk factors.

Cancer risk in the rubber industry: a review of the recent epidemiological evidence

PubMed Central

Kogevinas, M.; Sala, M.; Boffetta, P.; Kazerouni, N.; Kromhout, H.; Hoar-Zahm, S.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To examine the recent epidemiological evidence on cancer risk among workers in the rubber industry. METHODS: Epidemiological studies published after the last detailed review by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 1982 were reviewed. 12 cohort studies in nine countries that examined distinct populations of workers in the rubber industry, seven industry based nested case-control studies, 48 community based case-control studies in 16 countries, and 23 studies based on administrative data that reported risks for employment in the rubber industry were identified. RESULTS: Excess risks of bladder cancer, lung cancer, and leukaemia were found in most studies, with risks above 1.5 in about half of the studies. A moderate excess risk for laryngeal cancer was consistent across studies. Excess risks were found in a few studies for cancers of the oesophagus, stomach, colon, liver, pancreas, skin, prostate, kidney, brain, and thyroid, and for malignant lymphoma and multiple myeloma, but overall results were not consistent for these neoplasms. CONCLUSIONS: Magnitude of the observed risks varied considerably between studies, but overall the findings indicate the presence of a widespread moderate increased cancer risk among rubber workers. The most consistent results were for bladder, laryngeal, and lung cancer and for leukaemia. Excess risks were also found for other neoplasms but an evaluation of the consistency of the findings is difficult because of the possible selective reporting of results. Recent studies do not provide information associating specific exposures with cancer risk. The preventive measures taken in the rubber industry in recent years may decrease risks, but this has not been documented yet in epidemiological studies.   PMID:9536156

The discovery of drug-induced illness.

PubMed

Jick, H

1977-03-03

The increased use of drugs (and the concurrent increased risks of drug-induced illness) require definition of relevant research areas and strategy. For established marketed drugs, research needs depend on the magnitudes of risk of an illness from a drug and the base-line risk. With the drug risk high and the base-line risk low, the problem surfaces in premarketing studies or through the epidemic that develops after marketing. If the drug adds slightly to a high base-line risk, the effect is undetectable. When both risks are low, adverse effects can be discovered by chance, but systematic case-referent studies can speed discovery. If both risks are high, clinical trials and nonexperimental studies may be used. With both risks intermediate, systematic evaluations, especially case-referent studies are needed. Newly marketed drugs should be routinely evaluated through compulsory registration and follow-up study of the earliest users.

Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

2012-04-01

Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both Merapi and Bromo. Keywords: Risk management, volcanoes hazard, Merapi and Bromo Volcano Indonesia

Vaccinations and risk of systemic lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Shao, Xiaoqing; Wang, Dan; Xu, Donghua; Zhang, Jin-An

2017-07-01

In the past several years, more and more studies proposed some concerns on the possibly increased risk of autoimmune diseases in individuals receiving vaccinations, but published studies on the associations of vaccinations with risks of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) reported conflicting findings. A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out to comprehensively evaluate the relationship between vaccinations and risk of SLE and RA. Pubmed, Web of Science and Embase were searched for observational studies assessing the associations of vaccinations with risks of RA and SLE. Two authors independently extracted data from those eligible studies. The quality of eligible studies was assessed by using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). The pooled relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was used to measure the risk of RA and SLE associated with vaccinations, and was calculated through random-effect meta-analysis. Sixteen observational studies were finally considered eligible, including 12 studies on the association between vaccinations and SLE risk and 13 studies on the association between vaccinations and RA risk. The pooled findings suggested that vaccinations significantly increased risk of SLE (RR=1.50; 95%CI 1.05-2.12, P=0.02). In addition, there was an obvious association between vaccinations and increased risk of RA (RR=1.32; 95%CI 1.09-1.60, P=0.004). Meta-analysis of studies reporting outcomes of short vaccinated time also suggested that vaccinations could significantly increase risk of SLE (RR=1.93; 95%CI 1.07-3.48, P=0.028) and RA (RR=1.48; 95%CI 1.08-2.03, P=0.015). Sensitivity analyses in studies with low risk of bias also found obvious associations of vaccinations with increased risk of RA and SLE. This study suggests that vaccinations are related to increased risks of SLE and RA. More and larger observational studies are needed to further verify the findings above and to assess the associations of vaccinations with other rheumatic diseases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

PubMed Central

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-01-01

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

The role of the affect and availability heuristics in risk communication.

PubMed

Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael; Gutscher, Heinz

2006-06-01

Results of past research suggest that affect plays an important role in risk perception. Because affect may also increase the availability of risks, affect and availability are closely related concepts. Three studies tested the hypothesis that evoking negative affect (fear), either through past experience or through experimental manipulation, results in greater perceived risk. The present research focused on perception of flooding risk. Study 1 and Study 2 showed that participants who received risk information concerning a longer time period (e.g., 30 years) perceived more danger compared with participants who received risk information for one year. Study 2 showed that the interpretation of risk information was influenced by participants' own experiences with flooding. In Study 3, affect was experimentally manipulated. After looking at photographs depicting houses in a flooded region, participants perceived greater risk compared with participants in a control group. Taken together, the results of these three studies suggest that affect is important for successful risk communication. Results of the present research are in line with the affect heuristic proposed by Slovic and colleagues.

Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

2016-01-01

Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Heinz Nixdorf Recall study and its potential impact on the adoption of atherosclerosis imaging in European primary prevention guidelines.

PubMed

Mahabadi, Amir A; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Dragano, Nico; Kälsch, Hagen; Bauer, Marcus; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Erbel, Raimund

2011-10-01

Non-contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) imaging of the heart enables noninvasive quantification of coronary artery calcification (CAC), a surrogate marker of the atherosclerotic burden in the coronary artery tree. Multiple studies have underlined the ability of CAC score for individual risk stratification and, accordingly, the American Heart Association recommended cardiac CT for risk assessment in individuals with an intermediate risk of cardiovascular events as measured by Framingham Risk Score. However, limitations in transcribing risk stratification algorithms based on American cohort studies into European populations have been acknowledged in the past. Moreover, data on implications for reclassification into higher- or lower-risk groups based on CAC scores were lacking. The Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study is a population-based cohort study that investigated the ability of CAC scoring in risk prediction for major cardiovascular events above and beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors. According to Heinz Nixdorf Recall findings, CAC can be used for reclassification, especially in those in the intermediate-risk group, to advise on lifestyle changes for the reclassified low-risk category, or to implement intensive treatments for the reclassified high-risk individuals. This article discusses the present findings of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study with respect to the current literature, risk stratification algorithms, and current European guidelines for risk prediction.

Heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer: A Swedish population-based cohort study of competing risks and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Häggström, Christel; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Garmo, Hans; Robinson, David; Stattin, Pär; Rowley, Mark; Coolen, Anthony C C; Holmberg, Lars

2018-05-09

Most previous studies of prostate cancer have not taken into account that men in the studied populations are also at risk of competing event, and that these men may have different susceptibility to prostate cancer risk. The aim of this study was to investigate heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer, using a recently developed latent class regression method for competing risks. We further aimed to elucidate the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and prostate cancer risk, and to compare the results with conventional methods for survival analysis. We analysed the risk of prostate cancer in 126,482 men from the comparison cohort of the Prostate Cancer Data base Sweden (PCBaSe) 3.0. During a mean follow-up of 6 years 6,036 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 22,393 men died. We detected heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer with two distinct latent classes in the study population. The smaller class included 9% of the study population in which men had a higher risk of prostate cancer and the risk was stronger associated with class membership than any of the covariates included in the study. Moreover, we found no association between T2DM and risk of prostate cancer after removal of the effect of informative censoring due to competing risks. The recently developed latent class for competing risks method could be used to provide new insights in precision medicine with the target to classify individuals regarding different susceptibility to a particular disease, reaction to a risk factor or response to treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.

Regulatory Mode and Risk-Taking: The Mediating Role of Anticipated Regret

PubMed Central

Panno, Angelo; Lauriola, Marco; Pierro, Antonio

2015-01-01

We propose that decision maker’s regulatory mode affects risk-taking through anticipated regret. In the Study 1 either a locomotion or an assessment orientation were experimentally induced, and in the Studies 2 and 3 these different orientations were assessed as chronic individual differences. To assess risk-taking we used two behavioral measures of risk: BART and hot-CCT. The results show that experimentally induced assessment orientation–compared to locomotion–leads to decreased risk-taking through increased anticipated regret (Study 1). People chronically predisposed to be in the assessment state take less risk through increased anticipated regret (Study 2 and Study 3). Study 2 results also show a marginally non-significant indirect effect of chronic locomotion mode on BART through anticipated regret. Differently, Study 3 shows that people chronically predisposed to be in the locomotion state take greater risk through decreased anticipated regret, when play a dynamic risk task triggering stronger emotional arousal. Through all three studies, the average effect size for the relationship of assessment with anticipated regret was in the moderate-large range, whereas for risk-taking was in the moderate range. The average effect size for the relationship of locomotion with anticipated regret was in the moderate range, whereas for risk-taking was in the small-moderate range. These results increase our understanding of human behavior under conditions of risk obtaining novel insights into regulatory mode theory and decision science. PMID:26580960

Environmental risk factors for dementia: a systematic review.

PubMed

Killin, Lewis O J; Starr, John M; Shiue, Ivy J; Russ, Tom C

2016-10-12

Dementia risk reduction is a major and growing public health priority. While certain modifiable risk factors for dementia have been identified, there remains a substantial proportion of unexplained risk. There is evidence that environmental risk factors may explain some of this risk. Thus, we present the first comprehensive systematic review of environmental risk factors for dementia. We searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases from their inception to January 2016, bibliographies of review articles, and articles related to publically available environmental data. Articles were included if they examined the association between an environmental risk factor and dementia. Studies with another outcome (for example, cognition), a physiological measure of the exposure, case studies, animal studies, and studies of nutrition were excluded. Data were extracted from individual studies which were, in turn, appraised for methodological quality. The strength and consistency of the overall evidence for each risk factor identified was assessed. We screened 4784 studies and included 60 in the review. Risk factors were considered in six categories: air quality, toxic heavy metals, other metals, other trace elements, occupational-related exposures, and miscellaneous environmental factors. Few studies took a life course approach. There is at least moderate evidence implicating the following risk factors: air pollution; aluminium; silicon; selenium; pesticides; vitamin D deficiency; and electric and magnetic fields. Studies varied widely in size and quality and therefore we must be circumspect in our conclusions. Nevertheless, this extensive review suggests that future research could focus on a short list of environmental risk factors for dementia. Furthermore, further robust, longitudinal studies with repeated measures of environmental exposures are required to confirm these associations.

Design of a randomized trial of diabetes genetic risk testing to motivate behavior change: the Genetic Counseling/lifestyle Change (GC/LC) Study for Diabetes Prevention.

PubMed

Grant, Richard W; Meigs, James B; Florez, Jose C; Park, Elyse R; Green, Robert C; Waxler, Jessica L; Delahanty, Linda M; O'Brien, Kelsey E

2011-10-01

The efficacy of diabetes genetic risk testing to motivate behavior change for diabetes prevention is currently unknown. This paper presents key issues in the design and implementation of one of the first randomized trials (The Genetic Counseling/Lifestyle Change (GC/LC) Study for Diabetes Prevention) to test whether knowledge of diabetes genetic risk can motivate patients to adopt healthier behaviors. Because individuals may react differently to receiving 'higher' vs 'lower' genetic risk results, we designed a 3-arm parallel group study to separately test the hypotheses that: (1) patients receiving 'higher' diabetes genetic risk results will increase healthy behaviors compared to untested controls, and (2) patients receiving 'lower' diabetes genetic risk results will decrease healthy behaviors compared to untested controls. In this paper we describe several challenges to implementing this study, including: (1) the application of a novel diabetes risk score derived from genetic epidemiology studies to a clinical population, (2) the use of the principle of Mendelian randomization to efficiently exclude 'average' diabetes genetic risk patients from the intervention, and (3) the development of a diabetes genetic risk counseling intervention that maintained the ethical need to motivate behavior change in both 'higher' and 'lower' diabetes genetic risk result recipients. Diabetes genetic risk scores were developed by aggregating the results of 36 diabetes-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. Relative risk for type 2 diabetes was calculated using Framingham Offspring Study outcomes, grouped by quartiles into 'higher', 'average' (middle two quartiles) and 'lower' genetic risk. From these relative risks, revised absolute risks were estimated using the overall absolute risk for the study group. For study efficiency, we excluded all patients receiving 'average' diabetes risk results from the subsequent intervention. This post-randomization allocation strategy was justified because genotype represents a random allocation of parental alleles ('Mendelian randomization'). Finally, because it would be unethical to discourage participants to participate in diabetes prevention behaviors, we designed our two diabetes genetic risk counseling interventions (for 'higher' and 'lower' result recipients) so that both groups would be motivated despite receiving opposing results. For this initial assessment of the clinical implementation of genetic risk testing we assessed intermediate outcomes of attendance at a 12-week diabetes prevention course and changes in self-reported motivation. If effective, longer term studies with larger sample sizes will be needed to assess whether knowledge of diabetes genetic risk can help patients prevent diabetes. We designed a randomized clinical trial designed to explore the motivational impact of disclosing both higher than average and lower than average genetic risk for type 2 diabetes. This design allowed exploration of both increased risk and false reassurance, and has implications for future studies in translational genomics.

Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study

PubMed Central

Staerk, Laila; Wang, Biqi; Preis, Sarah R; Larson, Martin G; Lubitz, Steven A; Ellinor, Patrick T; McManus, David D; Ko, Darae; Weng, Lu-Chen; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Frost, Lars; Benjamin, Emelia J

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine the association between risk factor burdens—categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated—and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. Design Community based cohort study. Setting Longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study. Participants Individuals free of atrial fibrillation at index ages 55, 65, and 75 years were assessed. Smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, and history of heart failure or myocardial infarction were assessed as being optimal (that is, all risk factors were optimal), borderline (presence of borderline risk factors and absence of any elevated risk factor), or elevated (presence of at least one elevated risk factor) at index age. Main outcome measure Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation at index age up to 95 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. Results At index age 55 years, the study sample comprised 5338 participants (2531 (47.4%) men). In this group, 247 (4.6%) had an optimal risk profile, 1415 (26.5%) had a borderline risk profile, and 3676 (68.9%) an elevated risk profile. The prevalence of elevated risk factors increased gradually when the index ages rose. For index age of 55 years, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.3% to 39.6%). The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 23.4% (12.8% to 34.5%) with an optimal risk profile, 33.4% (27.9% to 38.9%) with a borderline risk profile, and 38.4% (35.5% to 41.4%) with an elevated risk profile. Overall, participants with at least one elevated risk factor were associated with at least 37.8% lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation. The gradient in lifetime risk across risk factor burden was similar at index ages 65 and 75 years. Conclusions Regardless of index ages at 55, 65, or 75 years, an optimal risk factor profile was associated with a lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation of about one in five; this risk rose to more than one in three in individuals with at least one elevated risk factor. PMID:29699974

Association between the MTHFR C677T polymorphism and risk of cancer: evidence from 446 case-control studies.

PubMed

Xie, Shu-Zhe; Liu, Zhi-Zhong; Yu, Jun-hua; Liu, Li; Wang, Wei; Xie, Dao-Lin; Qin, Jiang-Bo

2015-11-01

Many molecular epidemiological studies have been performed to explore the association between MTHFR C677T polymorphism and cancer risk in diverse populations. However, the results were inconsistent. Hence, we performed a meta-analysis to investigate the association between cancer risk and MTHFR C677T (150,086 cases and 200,699 controls from 446 studies) polymorphism. Overall, significantly increased cancer risk was found when all eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis. In the further stratified and sensitivity analyses, significantly increased breast cancer risk was found in Asians and Indians, significantly decreased colon cancer risk was found, significantly decreased colorectal cancer risk was found in male population, significantly increased gastric cancer risk was found in Caucasians and Asians, significantly increased hepatocellular cancer risk was found in Asians, significantly decreased adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia (AALL) risk was found in Caucasians, significantly decreased childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (CALL) risk was found in Asians, and significantly increased multiple myeloma and NHL risk was found in Caucasians. In summary, this meta-analysis suggests that MTHFR C677T polymorphism is associated with increased breast cancer, gastric cancer, and hepatocellular cancer risk in Asians, is associated with increased gastric cancer, multiple myeloma, and NHL risk in Caucasians, is associated with decreased AALL risk in Caucasians, is associated with decreased CALL risk in Asians, is associated with increased breast cancer risk in Asians, is associated with decreased colon cancer risk, and is associated with decreased colorectal cancer risk in male population. Moreover, this meta-analysis also points out the importance of new studies, such as Asians of HNC, Asians of lung cancer, and Indians of breast cancer, because they had high heterogeneity in this meta-analysis (I(2) > 75%).

Design of the BRISC study: a multicentre controlled clinical trial to optimize the communication of breast cancer risks in genetic counselling.

PubMed

Ockhuysen-Vermey, Caroline F; Henneman, Lidewij; van Asperen, Christi J; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Menko, Fred H; Timmermans, Daniëlle R M

2008-10-03

Understanding risks is considered to be crucial for informed decision-making. Inaccurate risk perception is a common finding in women with a family history of breast cancer attending genetic counseling. As yet, it is unclear how risks should best be communicated in clinical practice. This study protocol describes the design and methods of the BRISC (Breast cancer RISk Communication) study evaluating the effect of different formats of risk communication on the counsellee's risk perception, psychological well-being and decision-making regarding preventive options for breast cancer. The BRISC study is designed as a pre-post-test controlled group intervention trial with repeated measurements using questionnaires. The intervention-an additional risk consultation-consists of one of 5 conditions that differ in the way counsellee's breast cancer risk is communicated: 1) lifetime risk in numerical format (natural frequencies, i.e. X out of 100), 2) lifetime risk in both numerical format and graphical format (population figures), 3) lifetime risk and age-related risk in numerical format, 4) lifetime risk and age-related risk in both numerical format and graphical format, and 5) lifetime risk in percentages. Condition 6 is the control condition in which no intervention is given (usual care). Participants are unaffected women with a family history of breast cancer attending one of three participating clinical genetic centres in the Netherlands. The BRISC study allows for an evaluation of the effects of different formats of communicating breast cancer risks to counsellees. The results can be used to optimize risk communication in order to improve informed decision-making among women with a family history of breast cancer. They may also be useful for risk communication in other health-related services. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14566836.

The effect of giving global coronary risk information to adults: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sheridan, Stacey L; Viera, Anthony J; Krantz, Mori J; Ice, Christa L; Steinman, Lesley E; Peters, Karen E; Kopin, Laurie A; Lungelow, Danielle

2010-02-08

Global coronary heart disease (CHD) risk estimation (ie, a quantitative estimate of a patient's chances of CHD calculated by combining risk factors in an empirical equation) is recommended as a starting point for primary prevention efforts in all US adults. Whether it improves outcomes is currently unknown. To assess the effect of providing global CHD risk information to adults, we performed a systematic evidence review. We searched MEDLINE for the years 1980 to 2008, Psych Info, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Database and included English-language articles that met prespecified inclusion criteria. Two reviewers independently reviewed titles, abstracts, and articles for inclusion and assessed study quality. We identified 20 articles, reporting on 18 unique fair or good quality studies (including 14 randomized controlled studies). These showed that global CHD risk information alone or with accompanying education increased the accuracy of perceived risk and probably increased intent to start therapy. Studies with repeated risk information or risk information and repeated doses of counseling showed small significant reductions in predicted CHD risk (absolute differences, -0.2% to -2% over 10 years in studies using risk estimates derived from Framingham equations). Studies providing global risk information at only 1 point in time seemed ineffective. Global CHD risk information seems to improve the accuracy of risk perception and may increase intent to initiate CHD prevention among individuals at moderate to high risk. The effect of global risk presentation on more distal outcomes is less clear and seems to be related to the intensity of accompanying interventions.

Alcohol demand and risk preference

PubMed Central

Dave, Dhaval; Saffer, Henry

2008-01-01

Both economists and psychologists have studied the concept of risk preference. Economists categorize individuals as more or less risk-tolerant based on the marginal utility of income. Psychologists categorize individuals' propensity towards risk based on harm avoidance, novelty seeking and reward dependence traits. The two concepts of risk are related, although the instruments used for empirical measurement are quite different. Psychologists have found risk preference to be an important determinant of alcohol consumption; however economists have not included risk preference in studies of alcohol demand. This is the first study to examine the effect of risk preference on alcohol consumption in the context of a demand function. The specifications employ multiple waves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which permit the estimation of age-specific models based on nationally representative samples. Both of these data sets include a unique and consistent survey instrument designed to directly measure risk preference in accordance with the economist's definition. This study estimates the direct impact of risk preference on alcohol demand and also explores how risk preference affects the price elasticity of demand. The empirical results indicate that risk preference has a significant negative effect on alcohol consumption, with the prevalence and consumption among risk-tolerant individuals being 6–8% higher. Furthermore, the tax elasticity is similar across both risk-averse and risk-tolerant individuals. This suggests that tax policies are as equally effective in deterring alcohol consumption among those who have a higher versus a lower propensity for alcohol use. PMID:19956353

LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

PubMed

Chen, Jing

2017-04-01

This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

A Study of Correlation of Neck Circumference with Framingham Risk Score as a Predictor of Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Koppad, Anand K; Kaulgud, Ram S; Arun, B S

2017-09-01

It has been observed that metabolic syndrome is risk factor for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) and exerts its effects through fat deposition and vascular aging. CAD has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death. In earlier studies, the metabolic risk has been estimated by Framingham risk score. Recent studies have shown that Neck Circumference (NC) has a good correlation with other traditional anthropometric measurements and can be used as marker of obesity. It also correlates with Framingham risk score, which is slightly more sophisticated measure of CAD risk. To assess the risk of CAD in a subject based on NC and to correlate the NC to Framingham risk score. The present cross-sectional study, done at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubli, Karnataka, India, includes 100 subjects. The study duration was of one year from 1 st January 2015 to 31 st December 2015. Anthropometric indices Body Mass Index (BMI) and NC were correlated with 10 year CAD risk as calculated by Framingham risk score. The correlation between BMI, NC, vascular age and Framingham risk score was calculated using Karl Pearson's correlation method. NC has a strong correlation with 10 year CAD risk (p≤0.001). NC was significantly greater in males as compared to females (p≤0.001). Males had greater risk of cardiovascular disease as reflected by higher 10 year Framingham risk score (p≤0.0035). NC gives simple and easy prediction of CAD risk and is more reliable than traditional risk markers like BMI. NC correlates positively with 10 year Framingham risk score.

Defining micro-epidemiology for malaria elimination: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bannister-Tyrrell, Melanie; Verdonck, Kristien; Hausmann-Muela, Susanna; Gryseels, Charlotte; Muela Ribera, Joan; Peeters Grietens, Koen

2017-04-20

Malaria risk can vary markedly between households in the same village, or between villages, but the determinants of this "micro-epidemiological" variation in malaria risk remain poorly understood. This study aimed to identify factors that explain fine-scale variation in malaria risk across settings and improve definitions and methods for malaria micro-epidemiology. A systematic review of studies that examined risk factors for variation in malaria infection between individuals, households, clusters, hotspots, or villages in any malaria-endemic setting was conducted. Four databases were searched for studies published up until 6th October 2015. Crude and adjusted effect estimates for risk factors for malaria infection were combined in random effects meta-analyses. Bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. From 743 retrieved records, 51 studies were selected, representing populations comprising over 160,000 individuals in 21 countries, in high- and low-endemicity settings. Sixty-five risk factors were identified and meta-analyses were conducted for 11 risk factors. Most studies focused on environmental factors, especially increasing distance from a breeding site (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.86-0.92, 10 studies). Individual bed net use was protective (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.77, 12 studies), but not household bed net ownership. Increasing household size (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.15, 4 studies) and household crowding (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.48-2.16, 4 studies) were associated with malaria infection. Health seeking behaviour, medical history and genetic traits were less frequently studied. Only six studies examined whether individual-level risk factors explained differences in malaria risk at village or hotspot level, and five studies reported different risk factors at different levels of analysis. The risk of bias varied from low to high in individual studies. Insufficient reporting and comparability of measurements limited the number of meta-analyses conducted. Several variables associated with individual-level malaria infection were identified, but there was limited evidence that these factors explain variation in malaria risk at village or hotspot level. Social, population and other factors may confound estimates of environmental risk factors, yet these variables are not included in many studies. A structured framework of malaria risk factors is proposed to improve study design and quality of evidence in future micro-epidemiological studies.

Investigation of possible risk factors for depression in Alzheimer's disease: A systematic review of the evidence.

PubMed

Steck, Natassa; Cooper, Claudia; Orgeta, Vasiliki

2018-08-15

Depression is common in people with Alzheimer's disease (AD), and is associated with increased risk of institutionalization and mortality. Understanding risk factors for depression in AD is key to its development and treatment. We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and CINAL databases for longitudinal prospective cohort studies that evaluated risk factors for depression in people with AD. Two authors independently selected articles for inclusion and assessed quality of studies using predetermined criteria. In seven studies that met the inclusion criteria, 2029 participants were followed up for a median of 5 years. Gender and educational attainment were not predictors of depression risk. History of a past psychiatric disorder and greater cognitive impairment predicted increased risk of depression in more than one study. In single studies, younger age, having a family history of psychiatric disorder, neuroticism, functional decline, presence of sleep disturbance and aggression, and increased cardiovascular risk predicted depression risk. Not being within 6 months of dementia onset and, counterintuitively having two comorbid disorders were protective factors in one study. A small number of studies exist overall and only a few have examined the same risk factors. Most of the studies have measured depression using scales that are not validated in AD. These results inform a preliminary model of depression risk in people with AD. Unlike in the general population, men and women and those with higher and lower educational levels of attainment may be equally at risk of depression. Clinicians should be aware of these possible differences in the risk profile for depression in AD populations, to assist detection and enable early treatment. Interventions to delay cognitive and functional decline may reduce depression risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Perceived key injury risk factors in World Cup alpine ski racing—an explorative qualitative study with expert stakeholders

PubMed Central

Spörri, Jörg; Kröll, Josef; Amesberger, Günter; Blake, Ollie M; Müller, Erich

2012-01-01

Background There is limited knowledge about key injury risk factors in alpine ski racing, particularly for World Cup (WC) athletes. Objective This study was undertaken to compile and explore perceived intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors for severe injuries in WC alpine ski racing. Methods Qualitative study. Interviews were conducted with 61 expert stakeholders of the WC ski racing community. Experts’ statements were collected, paraphrased and loaded into a database with inductively derived risk factor categories (Risk Factor Analysis). At the end of the interviews, experts were asked to name those risk factors they believed to have a high potential impact on injury risk and to rank them according to their priority of impact (Risk Factor Rating). Results In total, 32 perceived risk factors categories were derived from the interviews within the basic categories Athlete, Course, Equipment and Snow. Regarding their perceived impact on injury risk, the experts’ top five categories were: system ski, binding, plate and boot; changing snow conditions; physical aspects of the athletes; speed and course setting aspects and speed in general. Conclusions Severe injuries in WC alpine ski racing can have various causes. This study compiled a list of perceived intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors and explored those factors with the highest believed impact on injury risk. Hence, by using more detailed hypotheses derived from this explorative study, further studies should verify the plausibility of these factors as true risk factors for severe injuries in WC alpine ski racing. PMID:22872684

Bullying increased suicide risk: prospective study of Korean adolescents.

PubMed

Kim, Young Shin; Leventhal, Bennett L; Koh, Yun-Joo; Boyce, W Thomas

2009-01-01

This study examines the independent impact of bullying on suicide risk. Bullying was assessed by peer nomination in a prospective study of 1,655 7th and 8th grade Korean students, and suicide by youth self-report. Odds Ratios (ORs) of bullying for suicidal risks were computed, controlling for other suicide risk factors. Victim-Perpetrators and female Victims at baseline showed increased risk for persistent suicidality (OR: 2.4-9.8). Male Incident Victims exhibited increased risk for suicidal behaviors and ideations (OR = 4.4, 3.6). Female Persistent Perpetrators exhibited increased risks for suicidal behaviors; male Incident Perpetrators had increased risk for suicidal ideations (OR = 2.7, 2.3). Baseline-only male Victim-Perpetrators showed increased risk for suicidal ideations. (OR = 6.4). Bullying independently increased suicide risks.

Sex and Age Differences in the Risk Threshold for Delinquency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wong, Thessa M. L.; Loeber, Rolf; Slotboom, Anne-Marie; Bijleveld, Catrien C. J. H.; Hipwell, Alison E.; Stepp, Stephanie D.; Koot, Hans M.

2013-01-01

This study examines sex differences in the risk threshold for adolescent delinquency. Analyses were based on longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Youth Study (n = 503) and the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 856). The study identified risk factors, promotive factors, and accumulated levels of risks as predictors of delinquency and nondelinquency,…

The influence of jumping risk and volatility risk on TAIEX option return

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Wei-Long; Hsieh, Ching-Tang; Huang, Jui-Chan; Wu, Tzu-Jung

2017-06-01

Due to the low profits in recent years environmental, as well as the development of financial engineering that promote the derivatives trading Volume increased. Moreover, the fastest-growing of selected right and the lack of research about option risk. This study aim to explore the relationship between the risk and reward of selected right in Taiwan index. This study focus on the pricing the jump risk of selected right in Taiwan index. Using cross-sectional data as a 12-month study period, using the iteration method to research the effects of abnormal returns, the result shows that different risk factors of fluctuations affected the abnormal returns obviously will cause risk premium as well as the jump risk which consistent with the theory of behavioral finance. However, according to traditional finance theory, contrary to the results of this study consider that higher risks should generate higher-paying as well. According this study, the investors in behavioral finance in modern financial theory is not rational, and the trading behavior is non-random, moreover, the financial market is non-efficiency. Instead, the high risk low reward.

Student nurse perceptions of risk in relation to international placements: a phenomenological research study.

PubMed

Morgan, Debra A

2012-11-01

International nursing electives have been identified as a positive learning experience for students. However, whilst there are risks associated with international student placements in general, there is a scarcity of research specifically relating to student nurse's experiences of risk. This study aimed to investigate UK undergraduate student nurse experiences of risk during an international placement. A phenomenological methodology was applied and semi-structured interviews were conducted with student nurses who had recently returned from an international clinical placement abroad. Ten, second year student nurses, studying on a pre-registration diploma/BSc (Hons) Nursing Studies/Registered Nurse programme from one UK University participated in the study. Findings from the study highlighted that students felt that three types of risk existed; physical risk, clinical-professional risk and socio-cultural risk. Perceptions of risk were influenced by sociological theory relating to the concept of 'the other' and students attempted to reduce risk by employing strategies to reduce 'Otherness'. They also applied psychological theory relating to heuristics such as 'safety in numbers.' It also emerged from the study that exposure to perceived risk enhanced learning as students reported that it encouraged personal and professional development in particular and so assisted students in their move toward self-actualisation. It is suggested, and intended, that findings from this study can be applied to the preparation of students to further enhance their safety and learning experience during international placements abroad. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of graphical and numerical presentation of hypothetical prenatal diagnosis results on risk perception.

PubMed

Siegrist, Michael; Orlow, Pascale; Keller, Carmen

2008-01-01

To evaluate various formats for the communication of prenatal test results. In study 1 (N=400), female students completed a questionnaire assessing risk perception, affect, and perceived usefulness of prenatal test results. A randomized, 2 (risk level; low, high) x 4 (format; ratio with numerator 1, ratio with denominator 1000, Paling Perspective Scale, pictograms) design was used. Study 2 (N=200) employed a 2 (risk level; low, high) x 2 (format; Paling Perspective Scale, risk comparisons in numerical format) design. In study 1, the Paling Perspective Scale resulted in a higher level of perceived risk across different risk levels compared with the other formats. Furthermore, participants in the low-risk group perceived the test results as less risky compared with participants in the high-risk group (P < 0.001) when the Paling Perspective Scale was used. No significant differences between low and high risks were observed for the other 3 formats. In study 2, the Paling Perspective Scale evoked higher levels of perceived risks relative to the numerical presentation of risk comparisons. For both formats, we found that participants confronted with a high risk perceived test results as more risky compared with participants confronted with a low risk. The Paling Perspective Scale resulted in a higher level of perceived risk compared with the other formats. This effect must be taken into account when choosing a graphical or numerical format for risk communication.

Drospirenone-containing oral contraceptive pills and the risk of venous thromboembolism: a systematic review of observational studies.

PubMed

Larivée, N; Suissa, S; Khosrow-Khavar, F; Tagalakis, V; Filion, K B

2017-09-01

The effects of fourth-generation drospirenone-containing combined oral contraceptives (COCs) on the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) are controversial. To assess the methodological strengths and limitations of the evidence on the VTE risk of these COCs. We searched CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, HealthStar, Medline, and the Science Citation Index. Studies were included if they were cohort and case-control studies, reported a venous thrombotic outcome, had a comparator group, reported an effect measure of the association of interest, and were published in English or French. We assessed study quality using the ROBINS-I tool and assessed the presence of four common sources of bias: prevalent user bias, inappropriate choice of comparator, VTE misclassification, and confounding. Our systematic review included 17 studies. The relative risks of VTE associated with drospirenone- versus second-generation levonorgestrel-containing COCs ranged from 1.0 to 3.3. Based on ROBINS-I, three studies had a moderate risk, ten had a serious risk, and four had a critical risk. Nine studies included prevalent users, four included inappropriate comparators, four had VTE misclassification, and five did not account for two or more important confounding factors. The three highest quality studies had relative risks ranging from 1.0 to 1.57. As a result of the methodological limitations of the individual studies, the VTE risk of drospirenone-containing COCs remains unknown. The highest quality studies suggest there are no or slightly increased harmful effects, but their confidence limits do not rule out an almost doubling of the risk. Systematic review of drospirenone: best studies show no or slightly increased VTE risk (versus levonorgestrel). © 2017 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk.

PubMed

Moll, Remington J; Redilla, Kyle M; Mudumba, Tutilo; Muneza, Arthur B; Gray, Steven M; Abade, Leandro; Hayward, Matt W; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Montgomery, Robert A

2017-07-01

Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple competing hypotheses. Addressing the pressing questions in risk effects research, including how, to what extent and on what scale they occur, requires leveraging the advantages of the many methods available to characterize risk while minimizing the confusion caused by variability in their application. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation-Based Disaster Risk Assessment of Desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

2015-01-01

Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an “S” type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China. PMID:25654772

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation-based disaster risk assessment of desertification in Horqin Sand Land, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yongfang; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Sun, Zhongyi

2015-02-03

Desertification is a typical disaster risk event in which human settlements and living environments are destroyed. Desertification Disaster Risk Assessment can control and prevent the occurrence and development of desertification disasters and reduce their adverse influence on human society. This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment and zoning of desertification disasters in Horqin Sand Land. Based on natural disaster risk theory and the desertification disaster formation mechanism, the Desertification Disaster Risk Index (DDRI) combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability and restorability factors and was developed mainly by using multi-source data and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that high risk and middle risk areas account for 28% and 23% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed with an "S" type in the study area. Low risk and very low risk areas account for 21% and 10% of the study area, respectively. They are distributed in the west-central and southwestern parts. Very high risk areas account for 18% of the study area and are distributed in the northeastern parts. The results can be used to know the desertification disaster risk level. It has important theoretical and practical significance to prevention and control of desertification in Horqin Sand Land and even in Northern China.

Failure to perceive increased risk of fracture in women 55 years and older: the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW)

PubMed Central

Gehlbach, S.; Adachi, J. D.; Boonen, S.; Chapurlat, R. D.; Compston, J. E.; Cooper, C.; Delmas, P.; Díez-Pérez, A.; Hooven, F. H.; LaCroix, A. Z.; Netelenbos, J. C.; Pfeilschifter, J.; Rossini, M.; Roux, C.; Saag, K. G.; Sambrook, P.; Silverman, S.; Watts, N. B.; Wyman, A.; Greenspan, S. L.

2010-01-01

Summary We compared self-perception of fracture risk with actual risk among 60,393 postmenopausal women aged ≥55 years, using data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW). Most postmenopausal women with risk factors failed to appreciate their actual risk for fracture. Improved education about osteoporosis risk factors is needed. Introduction This study seeks to compare self-perception of fracture risk with actual risk among postmenopausal women using data from GLOW. Methods GLOW is an international, observational, cohort study involving 723 physician practices in 17 sites in ten countries in Europe, North America, and Australia. Participants included 60,393 women ≥55 years attended by their physician during the previous 24 months. The sample was enriched so that two thirds were ≥65 years. Baseline surveys were mailed October 2006 to February 2008. Main outcome measures were self-perception of fracture risk in women with elevated risk vs women of the same age and frequency of risk factors for fragility fracture. Results In the overall study population, 19% (10,951/58,434) of women rated their risk of fracture as a little/much higher than that of women of the same age; 46% (27,138/58,434) said it was similar; 35% (20,345/58,434) believed it to be a little/much lower. Among women whose actual risk was increased based on the presence of any one of seven risk factors for fracture, the proportion who recognized their increased risk ranged from 19% for smokers to 39% for current users of glucocorticoid medication. Only 33% (4,185/12,612) of those with ≥2 risk factors perceived themselves as being at higher risk. Among women reporting a diagnosis of osteopenia or osteoporosis, only 25% and 43%, respectively, thought their risk was increased. Conclusion In this international, observational study, most postmenopausal women with risk factors failed to appreciate their actual risk for fracture. PMID:20358360

Moving closer to understanding the risks of living kidney donation.

PubMed

Steiner, Robert W

2016-01-01

Recent studies from the United States and Norway have suggested an unexpected 8- to 11-fold relative risk of ESRD after kidney donation, but a low long-term absolute risk. Abundant renal epidemiologic data predict that these studies have underestimated long-term risk. The 1% lifetime post-donation risk in the US study requires medical screening to predict ESRD in 96 of 100 candidates. This is particularly unlikely in the 30-35% of candidates under age 35, half of whose lifetime ESRD will occur after age 64. Many experts have attributed the increased relative risks in these studies to loss of GFR at donation, which ultimately means that high-normal pre-donation GFRs will reduce absolute post-donation risks. The 8- to 11-fold relative risks predict implausible risks of uninephrectomy in the general population, but lower estimates still result in very high risks for black donors. Young vs. older age, low vs. high-normal pre-donation GFRs, black race, and an increased relative risk of donation all predict highly variable individual risks, not a single "low" or "1%" risk as these studies suggest. A uniform, ethically defensible donor selection protocol would accept older donors with many minor medical abnormalities but protect from donation many currently acceptable younger, black, and/or low GFR candidates. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risks of Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, and Primary Peritoneal Cancer Screening

MedlinePlus

... decrease the risk of dying from cancer. Scientists study screening tests to find those with the fewest risks and ... of cancer, including ovarian cancer, or other conditions. Studies have also shown that ... Screening tests have risks. The risks of ovarian, fallopian tube, ...

Regulación del flujo sanguíneo uterino. I. Funciones de estrógeno y receptores estrogénicos α/β en el endotelio vascular uterino durante el embarazo

PubMed Central

Mayra, Pastore R.; Rosalina, Villalón L.; López, Gladys; Iruretagoyena, Jesús; Magness, Ronald

2015-01-01

Resumen El estrógeno y los receptores estrogénicos clásicos (REs), RE-α y RE-β, han demostrado ser parcialmente responsable por las adaptaciones endoteliales uterinas durante el embarazo al corto y largo plazo. Las diferencias moleculares y estructurales, junto con los diferentes efectos causados por estos receptores en las células y los tejidos, sugieren que su función varía dependiendo de la manera en la cual el estrógeno se comunica con sus receptores. En ésta revisión bibliográfica se discuten la función del estrógeno y sus receptores clásicos en las adaptaciones cardiovasculares durante el embarazo y la expresión de los Res in vivo e in vitro en el endotelio de la arteria uterina durante el ciclo ovárico y el embarazo, a la vez comparado con la expresión en endotelio arterial de tejidos reproductivos y no reproductivos. Estos temas integran el conocimiento actual de este amplio campo científico con interpretaciones e hipótesis diversas relacionadas con los efectos estrogénicos mediados bien sea por uno o los dos REs. Esta revisión también incluye la relación con las adaptaciones vasodilatadoras y angiogénicas requeridas para modular el dramático incremento fisiológico en la perfusión útero-placentaria observada durante un embarazo normal. PMID:26113750

Further genetic characterization of the two Trypanosoma cruzi Berenice strains (Be-62 and Be-78) isolated from the first human case of Chagas disease (Chagas, 1909).

PubMed

Cruz, R E; Macedo, A M; Barnabé, C; Freitas, J M; Chiari, E; Veloso, V M; Carneiro, C M; Bahia, M T; Tafuri, Washington L; Lana, M

2006-03-01

We describe here an extension of a previous genetic characterization of Trypanosoma cruzi strains (Be-62 and Be-78) isolated from the patient Berenice, the first human case of Chagas disease [Chagas, C., 1909. Nova Tripanomíase humana. Estudos sobre morfologia e o ciclo evolutivo do Schizotrypanum cruzi, n. gen., n. sp., agente etiolójico da nova entidade morbida do homem. Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz 1, 159-218]. We wanted to verify the composition of T. cruzi populations originated from these two isolates. In the present work, 22 enzymatic loci (MLEE), nine RAPD primers and 7 microsatellite loci were analyzed. Clones from both strains were also characterized to verify whether these strains are mono or polyclonal. Be-62 and Be-78 strains were different in 3 out of 22 enzymatic systems, in 3 out of 9 RAPD primers tested and in all microsatellite loci investigated. However, our data suggests that both strains are phylogenetically closely related, belonging to genetic group 32 from Tibayrenc and Ayala [Tibayrenc, M., Ayala, F.J., 1988. Isoenzime variability in Trypanosoma cruzi, the agent of Chagas' disease: genetical, taxonomical, and epidemiological significance. Evolution 42, 277-292], equivalent to zymodeme 2 and T. cruzi II major lineage which, in Brazil, comprises parasites from the domestic cycle of the disease. Microsatellite analyses showed differences between the parental strains but suggested that both populations are monoclonal since each strain and their respective clones showed the same amplification products.

Actividad solar del ciclo 23. Predicción del máximo y fase decreciente utilizando redes neuronales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parodi, M. A.; Ceccatto, H. A.; Piacentini, R. D.; García, P. J.

Different methods have been proposed in order to predict the maximum amplitude of solar cycles, either as a consequence of the intrinsic importance of this event and because of its relation with solar storms and possible effects upon satellites, communication systems, etc. In this work, a neural network solar activity prediction is presented, measured through the sunspot number (SSN). The 16-units neural network, with a 12:3:1 architecture, was trained in a ``feed-forward" propagation way and learning by the so called ``back propagation rule". The annual mean SSN data in the 1700-1975 and 1987-1998 periods were used as the training set. The solar cycle 21 (1976-1986) was taken as the cross-validation data set. After performing the network training we obtained a prediction of the maximum annual mean for the current solar cycle 23, SSNmax= 135 ±17 at the year 2000, which is 13% smaller than the International Consensus Commitee's mean maximum prediction obtained through ``precursor techniques". On the other hand, our prediction is only about 4% smaller than the Consensus's neural network mean prediction. A ``multiple step" prediction technique was also performed and SSN annual mean predicted values for the near-maximum (from the present year 1999 to beyond the maximum) and the declining activity of solar cycle 23 are presented in this work. The sensibility of predictions is also tested. To do so, we changed the interval width and comparated our results with those of a previous neural network prediction and those of others authors using differents methods.

Improvement actions in waste management systems at the provincial scale based on a life cycle assessment evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rigamonti, L., E-mail: lucia.rigamonti@polimi.it; Falbo, A.; Grosso, M.

Highlights: • LCA was used for evaluating the performance of four provincial waste management systems. • Milano, Bergamo, Pavia and Mantova (Italy) are the provinces selected for the analysis. • Most of the data used to model the systems are primary. • Significant differences were found among the provinces located in the same Region. • LCA was used as a decision-supporting tool by Regione Lombardia. - Abstract: This paper reports some of the findings of the ‘GERLA’ project: GEstione Rifiuti in Lombardia – Analisi del ciclo di vita (Waste management in Lombardia – Life cycle assessment). The project was devotedmore » to support Lombardia Region in the drafting of the new waste management plan by applying a life cycle thinking perspective. The present paper mainly focuses on four Provinces in the Region, which were selected based on their peculiarities. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was adopted as the methodology to assess the current performance of the integrated waste management systems, to discuss strengths and weaknesses of each of them and to design their perspective evolution as of year 2020. Results show that despite a usual business approach that is beneficial to all the provinces, the introduction of technological and management improvements to the system provides in general additional energy and environmental benefits for all four provinces. The same improvements can be easily extended to the whole Region, leading to increased environmental benefits from the waste management sector, in line with the targets set by the European Union for 2020.« less

Adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information: A qualitative study.

PubMed

Perry, John; Johnson, Ilona; Popat, Hashmat; Morgan, Maria Z; Gill, Paul

2018-04-24

For effective risk communication, clinicians must understand patients' values and beliefs in relation to the risks of treatment. This qualitative study aimed to explore adolescent perceptions of orthodontic treatment risks and risk information. Five focus groups were carried out with 32 school/college pupils aged 12-18 in Wales, UK. Participants were purposively selected and had all experienced orthodontic treatment. A thematic approach was used for analysis and data collection was completed at the point of data saturation. Four themes emerged from the data; (a) day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment, (b) important orthodontic risk information, (c) engaging with orthodontic risk information and (d) managing the risks of orthodontic treatment. Day-to-day risks of orthodontic treatment that were affecting participants "here and now" were of most concern. Information about preventing the risks of treatment was deemed to be important. Participants did not actively seek risk information but engaged passively with information from convenient sources. Perceptions of risk susceptibility influenced participants' management of the risks of orthodontic treatment. This study demonstrates that adolescent patients can understand information about the nature and severity of orthodontic treatment risks. However, adolescent patients can have false perceptions if the risks are unfamiliar, perceived only to have a future impact or if seen as easy to control. Adolescent patients must be provided with timely and easily accessible risk information and with practical solutions to prevent the risks of treatment. The views and experiences gathered in this study can assist clinicians to better understand their young patients' beliefs about treatment risks, facilitate effective risk communication and contribute to improved patient-centred care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Affect-laden imagery and risk taking: the mediating role of stress and risk perception.

PubMed

Traczyk, Jakub; Sobkow, Agata; Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz

2015-01-01

This paper investigates how affect-laden imagery that evokes emotional stress influences risk perception and risk taking in real-life scenarios. In a series of three studies, we instructed participants to imagine the consequences of risky scenarios and then rate the intensity of the experienced stress, perceived risk and their willingness to engage in risky behavior. Study 1 showed that people spontaneously imagine negative rather than positive risk consequences, which are directly related to their lower willingness to take risk. Moreover, this relationship was mediated by feelings of stress and risk perception. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings by showing that imagining negative risk consequences evokes psychophysiological stress responses observed in elevated blood pressure. Finally, in Study 3, we once again demonstrated that a higher intensity of mental images of negative risk consequences, as measured by enhanced brain activity in the parieto-occipital lobes, leads to a lower propensity to take risk. Furthermore, individual differences in creating vivid and intense negative images of risk consequences moderated the strength of the relationship between risk perception and risk taking. Participants who created more vivid and intense images of negative risk consequences paid less attention to the assessments of riskiness in rating their likelihood to take risk. To summarize, we showed that feelings of emotional stress and perceived riskiness mediate the relationship between mental imagery and risk taking, whereas individual differences in abilities to create vivid mental images may influence the degree to which more cognitive risk assessments are used in the risk-taking process.

Addressing risks to advance mental health research.

PubMed

Iltis, Ana S; Misra, Sahana; Dunn, Laura B; Brown, Gregory K; Campbell, Amy; Earll, Sarah A; Glowinski, Anne; Hadley, Whitney B; Pies, Ronald; Dubois, James M

2013-12-01

Risk communication and management are essential to the ethical conduct of research, yet addressing risks may be time consuming for investigators and institutional review boards may reject study designs that seem too risky. This can discourage needed research, particularly in higher-risk protocols or those enrolling potentially vulnerable individuals, such as those with some level of suicidality. Improved mechanisms for addressing research risks may facilitate much needed psychiatric research. To provide mental health researchers with practical approaches to (1) identify and define various intrinsic research risks, (2) communicate these risks to others (eg, potential participants, regulatory bodies, and society), (3) manage these risks during the course of a study, and (4) justify the risks. As part of a National Institute of Mental Health-funded scientific meeting series, a public conference and a closed-session expert panel meeting were held on managing and disclosing risks in mental health clinical trials. The expert panel reviewed the literature with a focus on empirical studies and developed recommendations for best practices and further research on managing and disclosing risks in mental health clinical trials. No institutional review board-review was required because there were no human subjects. Challenges, current data, practical strategies, and topics for future research are addressed for each of 4 key areas pertaining to management and disclosure of risks in clinical trials: identifying and defining risks, communicating risks, managing risks during studies, and justifying research risks. Empirical data on risk communication, managing risks, and the benefits of research can support the ethical conduct of mental health research and may help investigators better conceptualize and confront risks and to gain institutional review board-approval.

Affect-Laden Imagery and Risk Taking: The Mediating Role of Stress and Risk Perception

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

This paper investigates how affect-laden imagery that evokes emotional stress influences risk perception and risk taking in real-life scenarios. In a series of three studies, we instructed participants to imagine the consequences of risky scenarios and then rate the intensity of the experienced stress, perceived risk and their willingness to engage in risky behavior. Study 1 showed that people spontaneously imagine negative rather than positive risk consequences, which are directly related to their lower willingness to take risk. Moreover, this relationship was mediated by feelings of stress and risk perception. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings by showing that imagining negative risk consequences evokes psychophysiological stress responses observed in elevated blood pressure. Finally, in Study 3, we once again demonstrated that a higher intensity of mental images of negative risk consequences, as measured by enhanced brain activity in the parieto-occipital lobes, leads to a lower propensity to take risk. Furthermore, individual differences in creating vivid and intense negative images of risk consequences moderated the strength of the relationship between risk perception and risk taking. Participants who created more vivid and intense images of negative risk consequences paid less attention to the assessments of riskiness in rating their likelihood to take risk. To summarize, we showed that feelings of emotional stress and perceived riskiness mediate the relationship between mental imagery and risk taking, whereas individual differences in abilities to create vivid mental images may influence the degree to which more cognitive risk assessments are used in the risk-taking process. PMID:25816238

I'm feeling lucky: the relationship between affect and risk-seeking in the framing effect.

PubMed

Cheung, Elaine; Mikels, Joseph A

2011-08-01

Engagement in risky behavior has traditionally been attributed to an underestimation of the associated risks, but recent perspectives suggest that affective reactions toward a risky option may better explain risk-seeking than risk perception. However, the precise relationship between emotion and risk-seeking remains unclear. The current set of studies elucidates the relationship between emotion and risk-seeking in risky choice framing, using a gambling task. In Study 1, reliance on emotion was related to risk-seeking, but goals to regulate emotion mitigated these effects. In Study 2, positive affect was associated with risk-seeking in loss frames, but unrelated to risk aversion in gain frames. Collectively, these findings indicate a general role for emotion reliance on risk-seeking and a specific role of positive affect on risk-seeking in the loss trials of the framing effect. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Documentation of violence risk information in psychiatric hospital patient charts: an empirical examination.

PubMed

Elbogen, Eric B; Tomkins, Alan J; Pothuloori, Antara P; Scalora, Mario J

2003-01-01

Studies have identified risk factors that show a strong association with violent behavior in psychiatric populations. Yet, little research has been conducted on the documentation of violence risk information in actual clinical practice, despite the relevance of such documentation to risk assessment liability and to conducting effective risk management. In this study, the documentation of cues of risk for violence were examined in psychiatric settings. Patient charts (n = 283) in four psychiatric settings were reviewed for documentation of violence risk information summarized in the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study. The results revealed that particular patient and institutional variables influenced documentation practices. The presence of personality disorder, for example, predicted greater documentation of cues of violence risk, regardless of clinical setting. These findings have medicolegal implications for risk assessment liability and clinical implications for optimizing risk management in psychiatric practice.

Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

PubMed

Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

Dietary Cholesterol Intake and Risk of Lung Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Lin, Xiaojing; Liu, Lingli; Fu, Youyun; Gao, Jing; He, Yunyun; Wu, Yang; Lian, Xuemei

2018-02-08

Multiple epidemiologic studies have evaluated the relationship between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk, but the association is controversial and inconclusive. A meta-analysis of case-control studies and cohort studies was conducted to evaluate the relationship between dietary cholesterol intake and lung cancer risk in this study. A relevant literature search up to October 2017 was performed in Web of Science, PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Sinomed, and VIP Journal Integration Platform. Ten case-control studies and six cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the risk estimates were pooled using either fixed or random effects models. The case-control studies with a total of 6894 lung cancer cases and 29,736 controls showed that dietary cholesterol intake was positively associated with lung cancer risk (Odds Ratio = 1.70, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.43-2.03). However, there was no evidence of an association between dietary cholesterol intake and risk of lung cancer among the 241,920 participants and 1769 lung cancer cases in the cohort studies (Relative Risk = 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.94-1.25). Due to inconsistent results from case-control and cohort studies, it is difficult to draw any conclusion regarding the effects of dietary cholesterol intake on lung cancer risk. Carefully designed and well-conducted cohort studies are needed to identify the association between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk.

Low cigarette consumption and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: meta-analysis of 141 cohort studies in 55 study reports

PubMed Central

Morris, Joan K; Boniface, Sadie; Tang, Jin-Ling; Milenković, Dušan

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To use the relation between cigarette consumption and cardiovascular disease to quantify the risk of coronary heart disease and stroke for light smoking (one to five cigarettes/day). Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline 1946 to May 2015, with manual searches of references. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies with at least 50 events, reporting hazard ratios or relative risks (both hereafter referred to as relative risk) compared with never smokers or age specific incidence in relation to risk of coronary heart disease or stroke. Data extraction/synthesis MOOSE guidelines were followed. For each study, the relative risk was estimated for smoking one, five, or 20 cigarettes per day by using regression modelling between risk and cigarette consumption. Relative risks were adjusted for at least age and often additional confounders. The main measure was the excess relative risk for smoking one cigarette per day (RR1_per_day−1) expressed as a proportion of that for smoking 20 cigarettes per day (RR20_per_day−1), expected to be about 5% assuming a linear relation between risk and consumption (as seen with lung cancer). The relative risks for one, five, and 20 cigarettes per day were also pooled across all studies in a random effects meta-analysis. Separate analyses were done for each combination of sex and disorder. Results The meta-analysis included 55 publications containing 141 cohort studies. Among men, the pooled relative risk for coronary heart disease was 1.48 for smoking one cigarette per day and 2.04 for 20 cigarettes per day, using all studies, but 1.74 and 2.27 among studies in which the relative risk had been adjusted for multiple confounders. Among women, the pooled relative risks were 1.57 and 2.84 for one and 20 cigarettes per day (or 2.19 and 3.95 using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). Men who smoked one cigarette per day had 46% of the excess relative risk for smoking 20 cigarettes per day (53% using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors), and women had 31% of the excess risk (38% using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). For stroke, the pooled relative risks for men were 1.25 and 1.64 for smoking one or 20 cigarettes per day (1.30 and 1.56 using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). In women, the pooled relative risks were 1.31 and 2.16 for smoking one or 20 cigarettes per day (1.46 and 2.42 using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). The excess risk for stroke associated with one cigarette per day (in relation to 20 cigarettes per day) was 41% for men and 34% for women (or 64% and 36% using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). Relative risks were generally higher among women than men. Conclusions Smoking only about one cigarette per day carries a risk of developing coronary heart disease and stroke much greater than expected: around half that for people who smoke 20 per day. No safe level of smoking exists for cardiovascular disease. Smokers should aim to quit instead of cutting down to significantly reduce their risk of these two common major disorders. PMID:29367388

Scientific reporting is suboptimal for aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies: a review of published articles based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies statement.

PubMed

Iglesias, Adriana I; Mihaescu, Raluca; Ioannidis, John P A; Khoury, Muin J; Little, Julian; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

2014-05-01

Our main objective was to raise awareness of the areas that need improvements in the reporting of genetic risk prediction articles for future publications, based on the Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS) statement. We evaluated studies that developed or validated a prediction model based on multiple DNA variants, using empirical data, and were published in 2010. A data extraction form based on the 25 items of the GRIPS statement was created and piloted. Forty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Overall, more than half of the evaluated items (34 of 62) were reported in at least 85% of included articles. Seventy-seven percentage of the articles were identified as genetic risk prediction studies through title assessment, but only 31% used the keywords recommended by GRIPS in the title or abstract. Seventy-four percentage mentioned which allele was the risk variant. Overall, only 10% of the articles reported all essential items needed to perform external validation of the risk model. Completeness of reporting in genetic risk prediction studies is adequate for general elements of study design but is suboptimal for several aspects that characterize genetic risk prediction studies such as description of the model construction. Improvements in the transparency of reporting of these aspects would facilitate the identification, replication, and application of genetic risk prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Examining the interaction of force and repetition on musculoskeletal disorder risk: a systematic literature review.

PubMed

Gallagher, Sean; Heberger, John R

2013-02-01

Our aims were (a) to perform a systematic literature review of epidemiological studies that examined the interaction of force and repetition with respect to musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) risk, (b) to assess the relationship of force and repetition in fatigue failure studies of musculoskeletal tissues, and (c) to synthesize these findings. Many epidemiological studies have examined the effects of force and repetition on MSD risk; however, relatively few have examined the interaction between these risk factors. In a literature search, we identified 12 studies that allowed evaluation of a force-repetition interaction with respect to MSD risk. Identified studies were subjected to a methodological quality assessment and critical review. We evaluated laboratory studies of fatigue failure to examine tissue failure responses to force and repetition. Of the 12 epidemiological studies that tested a Force x Repetition interaction, 10 reported evidence of interaction. Based on these results, the suggestion is made that force and repetition may be interdependent in terms of their influence on MSD risk. Fatigue failure studies of musculoskeletal tissues show a pattern of failure that mirrors the MSD risk observed in epidemiological studies. Evidence suggests that there may be interdependence between force and repetition with respect to MSD risk. Repetition seems to result in modest increases in risk for low-force tasks but rapid increases in risk for high-force tasks. This interaction may be representative of a fatigue failure process in affected tissues.

Infant siblings and the investigation of autism risk factors

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Infant sibling studies have been at the vanguard of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) research over the past decade, providing important new knowledge about the earliest emerging signs of ASD and expanding our understanding of the developmental course of this complex disorder. Studies focused on siblings of children with ASD also have unrealized potential for contributing to ASD etiologic research. Moving targeted time of enrollment back from infancy toward conception creates tremendous opportunities for optimally studying risk factors and risk biomarkers during the pre-, peri- and neonatal periods. By doing so, a traditional sibling study, which already incorporates close developmental follow-up of at-risk infants through the third year of life, is essentially reconfigured as an enriched-risk pregnancy cohort study. This review considers the enriched-risk pregnancy cohort approach of studying infant siblings in the context of current thinking on ASD etiologic mechanisms. It then discusses the key features of this approach and provides a description of the design and implementation strategy of one major ASD enriched-risk pregnancy cohort study: the Early Autism Risk Longitudinal Investigation (EARLI). PMID:22958474

Association Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in Pooled Occupational Cohorts.

PubMed

Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew Steven; Kapellusch, Jay; Merryweather, Andrew S; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Wood, Eric M; Kendall, Richard; Wertsch, Jacqueline; Foster, James; Garg, Arun; Drury, David L

2016-01-01

The aim of the study was to ascertain if cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors are carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) risk factors. Analysis of pooled baseline data from two large prospective cohort studies (n = 1824) assessed the relationships between a modified Framingham Heart Study CVD risk score both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study prevalence. Quantified job exposures, personal and psychosocial confounders were statistically controlled. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for individual risk scores. There was a strong relationship between CVD risk score and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study after adjustment for confounders, with odds ratios as high as 4.16 and 7.35, respectively. Dose responses were also observed. In this workplace population, there is a strong association between CVD risk scores and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study that persisted after controlling for confounders. These data suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism.

Research Risk for Persons With Psychiatric Disorders: A Decisional Framework to Meet the Ethical Challenge

PubMed Central

Yanos, Philip T.; Stanley, Barbara S.; Greene, Carolyn S.

2010-01-01

Objective There is a lack of consensus on how to evaluate the risk of research studies conducted with persons who have psychiatric disorders. The authors reviewed research on vulnerability, risk, and procedures to mitigate risk in studies with this population to help inform evaluation of such research. Methods Searches of MEDLINE (1966–2006), PsycINFO (1967–2006), and Google Scholar used combinations of the terms mental illness, vulnerable, psychiatric, schizophrenia, and depression combined with terms such as research risk, vulnerability, research harm, capacity, risk, and mitigation of risk. Articles were identified from reference lists, and additional searches used terms from identified articles. Results Evidence for two types of vulnerability—capacity based and power based—is presented, which supports the notion of vulnerability as a state, rather than a trait, among persons with psychiatric disorders. Three categories of risk are described—minimal risk, minor increment over minimal risk, and greater than minor increment. Evidence shows that many common types of studies pose risk in the first two categories when conducted with this population. The literature also describes procedures for reducing vulnerability and mitigating risk that should be considered in study evaluations. The authors offer a framework for evaluating the category of risk posed by a study. Conclusions Although more research is needed, there is sufficient evidence that many common types of research present minimal risk or only a minor increment over minimal risk for large segments of the population of persons with psychiatric disorders, as they do for persons in the general population. PMID:19252051

A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

PubMed

Kuypers, Kim Paula Colette; Legrand, Sara-Ann; Ramaekers, Johannes Gerardus; Verstraete, Alain Gaston

2012-01-01

The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases)/sampling (controls). The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR) for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161) and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301) were included in the study. Main findings were that 1) alcohol in general (all the concentrations together) caused an elevated crash risk; 2) cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3) when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

Selected medical conditions and risk of pancreatic cancer.

PubMed

Olson, Sara H

2012-01-01

We review the current evidence for associations of several medical conditions with risk of pancreatic cancer, including allergies, pancreatitis, gall bladder disease, cholecystectomy, ulcers, gastrectomy, appendectomy, and tonsillectomy. There are consistent findings of reduced risk associated with presence of self-reported allergies, particularly hay fever but not asthma; data on other allergies are limited and inconclusive. Several studies provide evidence that patients with pancreatic cancer are more likely than comparison groups to report pancreatitis. Those studies that investigated the time between onset of pancreatitis and diagnosis of pancreatic cancer found that risk estimates declined with longer periods of time; however, increased risks were noted for long-term pancreatitis, indicating that this condition is both a risk factor and a sign of early disease. Increased risk was reported in association with cholelithiasis, but the few studies that considered time before diagnosis of cancer did not find increased risk for cholelithiasis diagnosed in the more distant past. There is weak evidence that cholecystectomy 2 or more years before cancer diagnosis is related to risk, but this is based on only a few studies. There is no consistent association between ulcers and risk, while gastrectomy may increase risk. Overall, study of these conditions, particularly those that are rare, presents methodologic challenges. Time between diagnoses is likely to be important but is not considered in most studies. Lack of adequate control in several studies for risk factors such as smoking and heavy alcohol use also makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions about these results. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Polygenic risk, rapid childhood growth, and the development of obesity: evidence from a 4-decade longitudinal study.

PubMed

Belsky, Daniel W; Moffitt, Terrie E; Houts, Renate; Bennett, Gary G; Biddle, Andrea K; Blumenthal, James A; Evans, James P; Harrington, Honalee; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

2012-06-01

To test how genomic loci identified in genome-wide association studies influence the development of obesity. A 38-year prospective longitudinal study of a representative birth cohort. The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, Dunedin, New Zealand. One thousand thirty-seven male and female study members. We assessed genetic risk with a multilocus genetic risk score. The genetic risk score was composed of single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies of obesity-related phenotypes. We assessed family history from parent body mass index data collected when study members were 11 years of age. Body mass index growth curves, developmental phenotypes of obesity, and adult obesity outcomes were defined from anthropometric assessments at birth and at 12 subsequent in-person interviews through 38 years of age. Individuals with higher genetic risk scores were more likely to be chronically obese in adulthood. Genetic risk first manifested as rapid growth during early childhood. Genetic risk was unrelated to birth weight. After birth, children at higher genetic risk gained weight more rapidly and reached adiposity rebound earlier and at a higher body mass index. In turn, these developmental phenotypes predicted adult obesity, mediating about half the genetic effect on adult obesity risk. Genetic associations with growth and obesity risk were independent of family history, indicating that the genetic risk score could provide novel information to clinicians. Genetic variation linked with obesity risk operates, in part, through accelerating growth in the early childhood years after birth. Etiological research and prevention strategies should target early childhood to address the obesity epidemic.

Sex and Age Differences in the Risk Threshold for Delinquency

PubMed Central

Loeber, Rolf; Slotboom, Anne-Marie; Bijleveld, Catrien C. J. H.; Hipwell, Alison E.; Stepp, Stephanie D.; Koot, Hans M.

2015-01-01

This study examines sex differences in the risk threshold for adolescent delinquency. Analyses were based on longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Youth Study (n = 503) and the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 856). The study identified risk factors, promotive factors, and accumulated levels of risks as predictors of delinquency and nondelinquency, respectively. The risk thresholds for boys and girls were established at two developmental stages (late childhood: ages 10–12 years, and adolescence: ages 13–16 years) and compared between boys and girls. Sex similarities as well as differences existed in risk and promotive factors for delinquency. ROC analyses revealed only small sex differences in delinquency thresholds, that varied by age. Accumulative risk level had a linear relationship with boys’ delinquency and a quadratic relationship with girls’ delinquency, indicating stronger effects for girls at higher levels of risk. PMID:23183920

Ethnic differences in risk factors and total risk of cardiovascular disease based on the Norwegian CONOR study.

PubMed

Rabanal, Kjersti S; Lindman, Anja S; Selmer, Randi M; Aamodt, Geir

2013-12-01

Risk of cardiovascular disease varies between ethnic groups and the aim of this study was to investigate differences in cardiovascular risk factors, and total cardiovascular risk between ethnic groups in Norway. Cross-sectional study using data from the Cohort of Norway (CONOR). A sample of 62,145 participants, 40-65 years of age, originating from 11 geographical regions, were included in our study. Self-reported variables, blood samples and physical measurements were used to estimate age- and time-adjusted mean values of cardiovascular risk factors for different ethnic groups. The 10-year risks of cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular events were calculated using the Framingham and NORRISK risk models. We observed differences between ethnic groups for cardiovascular risk factors and both Framingham and NORRISK risk scores. NORRISK showed significant differences by ethnicity in women only. Immigrants from the Indian subcontinent had the lowest high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels, the highest levels of blood glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol/HDL ratio, waist hip ratio and diabetes prevalence. Immigrants from the former Yugoslavia had the highest Framingham scores, high blood pressure, high total cholesterol/HDL ratio, overweight measures and smoking. Low cardiovascular risk was observed among East Asian immigrants. The previously reported excess cardiovascular risk among immigrants from the Indian subcontinent was supported in this study. We also showed that immigrants from the former Yugoslavian countries had a higher total 10-year risk of cardiovascular events than other ethnic groups. This study adds information about ethnic groups in Norway which needs to be addressed in further research and targeted prevention strategies.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score: Results from the Filipino-American Women Cardiovascular Study.

PubMed

Ancheta, Irma B; Battie, Cynthia A; Volgman, Annabelle S; Ancheta, Christine V; Palaniappan, Latha

2017-02-01

Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality of Filipino-Americans, conventional CVD risk calculators may not be accurate for this population. CVD risk scores of a group of Filipino-American women (FAW) were measured using the major risk calculators. Secondly, the sensitivity of the various calculators to obesity was determined. This is a cross-sectional descriptive study that enrolled 40-65-year-old FAW (n = 236), during a community-based health screening study. Ten-year CVD risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Reynolds Risk Score (RRS), and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) calculators. The 30-year risk FRS and the lifetime ASCVD calculators were also determined. Levels of predicted CVD risk varied as a function of the calculator. The 10-year ASCVD calculator classified 12 % of participants with ≥10 % risk, but the 10-year FRS and RRS calculators classified all participants with ≤10 % risk. The 30-year "Hard" Lipid and BMI FRS calculators classified 32 and 43 % of participants with high (≥20 %) risk, respectively, while 95 % of participants were classified with ≥20 % risk by the lifetime ASCVD calculator. The percent of participants with elevated CVD risk increased as a function of waist circumference for most risk score calculators. Differences in risk score as a function of the risk score calculator indicate the need for outcome studies in this population. Increased waist circumference was associated with increased CVD risk scores underscoring the need for obesity control as a primary prevention of CVD in FAW.

The Effects of Acute Cannabis Use on Nontraffic Injury Risk: Reviewing the Available Literature and Identifying Ways Forward

PubMed Central

Andreuccetti, Gabriel; Ye, Yu; Kang, Jaewook; Korcha, Rachael; Witbrodt, Jane A.; Carvalho, Heraclito B.; Cherpitel, Cheryl J.

2018-01-01

Recent evidence has indicated that cannabis use before driving is associated with a modest but increased risk for traffic-related injuries. However, the question of whether recent cannabis use is associated with a greater risk for other types of injuries remains unanswered. Aiming to understand better how acute cannabis use might affect the risk for all causes of injury, we have summarized the limited data available in the literature on the risk of non-traffic injuries associated with recent cannabis use. Very few studies were able to provide estimate risks for all injuries or injuries other than those related to road traffic injuries, with the limited evidence available showing mixed findings. The only significant risk found (in only one study) suggests an inverse association between all injuries and cannabis use. Study designs are limited, and the majority of studies have neither data on acute cannabis use among injured individuals nor a valid control group for estimating injury risk attributable to cannabis. In conclusion, studies of the association between cannabis and non-traffic injuries present several limitations, particularly regarding sampling strategies, injury risk assessment for different causes of injury, and a dose-response risk relationship with injury. Further studies, incorporating better design for different causes of injury and drug testing, are required to reach firmer conclusions on the association between cannabis use and non-traffic injury risk. PMID:29456273

Adolescent Problem Behavior in Navi Mumbai: An Exploratory Study of Psychosocial Risk and Protection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solomon, R. J.

2007-01-01

Background: A conceptual framework about protective factors (models protection, controls protection, support protection) and risk factors (models risk, opportunity risk, vulnerability risk) was employed to articulate the content of five psychosocial contexts of adolescent life--individual, family, peers, school, and neighborhood--in a study of…

Asthma Risk Profiles of Children Participating in an Asthma Education and Management Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Candice; Rapp, Kristi Isaac; Jack, Leonard, Jr.; Hayes, Sandra; Post, Robert; Malveaux, Floyd

2015-01-01

Background: Focused risk assessment is essential in the effective management of asthma. Purpose: This study identified and examined correlations among areas of pediatric asthma risk and determined associations between these risks and demographic characteristics. Methods: This exploratory study identified risk factors that affect asthma management…

Racing risk, gendering responsibility: a qualitative study of how South African students talk about sexual risk and responsibility.

PubMed

van der Riet, Mary; Nicholson, Tamaryn Jane

2014-01-01

Individuals' perceptions of risk have implications for whether and how they engage with protective strategies. This study investigated how sexual risk, specifically HIV and pregnancy and responsibility for these risks were constructed in discussions across five groups of youth in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The qualitative study used focus groups and interviews with a sample of 28 tertiary level students and 7 peri-urban youth. The constructions of risk intersected with raced and gendered narratives around sexual risk and responsibility. These constructions were used by the participants to assign and displace responsibility for the risks of HIV and pregnancy, rendering some groups immune to these risks. This constitutes a form of stigmatisation and also has implications for participants' prevention practices.

Validation of MASCC Score for Risk Stratification in Patients of Hematological Disorders with Febrile Neutropenia.

PubMed

Taj, M; Nadeem, M; Maqsood, S; Shah, T; Farzana, T; Shamsi, T S

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association of MASCC score (Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer Score) in patients with febrile neutropenia (as resultant treatment of hematological disorders) for risk assessment of morbidity and mortality. Patients presenting with Febrile Neutropenia from November 2011 till December 2013 were enrolled in the study. Initially all patients were hospitalized and their MASCC score was calculated, however those with high risk stayed in hospital till full ANC recovery while low risk group was discharged earlier and keenly followed as out-patient while being on prophylactic oral antibiotics. The MASCC risk-index score was calculated and patients with risk score >21 were regarded as low-risk while <21 were labeled as high-risk. On the basis of 226 febrile neutropenia patient 132(58.4 %) were categorized as low risk while 94(41.5 %) as high risk patients according to MASCC risk index score. In low risk group 123(93 %) had uncomplicated infection while 9(7 %) had complicated infections. There was no mortality documented in low risk group while eight patients died in high risk group. In this study we correctly predicted outcome of 123(93 %) low risk group patients. The study had positive predictive value of 93 % with both sensitivity and specificity of 65 and 75 % respectively. The MASCC risk score is a valuable tool in determining the outcome in patients with febrile neutropenia.

Risk perception and its role in attitudes toward blood transfusion: a qualitative systematic review.

PubMed

Ngo, Ly Thi; Bruhn, Roberta; Custer, Brian

2013-04-01

Despite improvements in blood safety making transfusion a much safer clinical procedure, the general public still perceives it as risky. We systematically reviewed available literature to examine evidence regarding the reasons and causes behind this perception. Electronic databases including PubMed, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE for literature dating back to the 1980s were searched. Eligible studies collected information on blood recipients' demographics, measures of risk domains (sets of values that risks encompass), and general knowledge of blood transfusion in terms of risks and benefits. Each study was assessed for quality of data, research method, and relevant findings. A scoring system was used to subjectively rate the overall quality of each study. Each study was reviewed for its method of data collection and information abstracted on hazards and conceptual dimensions used to measure risk. Risk perception between blood transfusion and other hazards including alternatives to transfusion were compared. Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria, all of which were conducted outside the United States, with most of the studies published more than 10 years ago and conducted by only 3 research groups. Five studies were rated as being very good, four good, five fair, and one of poor quality. The finding of the studies consistently show that objective or raw knowledge is not correlated with risk perception, but subjective or calibrated knowledge is. Thus, it is what people think they know rather than what they actually do know that influences risk perception of transfusion. Of the 3 common conceptual domains-dread, unknown risk, and benefits-blood transfusion was found to be of intermediate dread, intermediate unknown risk, and most beneficial compared with other hazards. Donated blood was found to have lower perceived risk than all other alternatives to transfusion, except for use of autologous blood. There is a lack of recent studies on allogeneic transfusion. However, the more recent studies show that perceived high risk is still prevalent in the general public. The available risk perception studies suggest that although blood transfusion is safe, elevated risk perception of infections persists. Studies of the US population are needed to better understand the influence of both psychological and scientific factors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of evidence on harms of medical interventions in randomized and nonrandomized studies

PubMed Central

Papanikolaou, Panagiotis N.; Christidi, Georgia D.; Ioannidis, John P.A.

2006-01-01

Background Information on major harms of medical interventions comes primarily from epidemiologic studies performed after licensing and marketing. Comparison with data from large-scale randomized trials is occasionally feasible. We compared evidence from randomized trials with that from epidemiologic studies to determine whether they give different estimates of risk for important harms of medical interventions. Methods We targeted well-defined, specific harms of various medical interventions for which data were already available from large-scale randomized trials (> 4000 subjects). Nonrandomized studies involving at least 4000 subjects addressing these same harms were retrieved through a search of MEDLINE. We compared the relative risks and absolute risk differences for specific harms in the randomized and nonrandomized studies. Results Eligible nonrandomized studies were found for 15 harms for which data were available from randomized trials addressing the same harms. Comparisons of relative risks between the study types were feasible for 13 of the 15 topics, and of absolute risk differences for 8 topics. The estimated increase in relative risk differed more than 2-fold between the randomized and nonrandomized studies for 7 (54%) of the 13 topics; the estimated increase in absolute risk differed more than 2-fold for 5 (62%) of the 8 topics. There was no clear predilection for randomized or nonrandomized studies to estimate greater relative risks, but usually (75% [6/8]) the randomized trials estimated larger absolute excess risks of harm than the nonrandomized studies did. Interpretation Nonrandomized studies are often conservative in estimating absolute risks of harms. It would be useful to compare and scrutinize the evidence on harms obtained from both randomized and nonrandomized studies. PMID:16505459

Towards a Typology of At-Risk Students: A Case Study in Singapore

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dobele, Angela R.; Kopanidis, Foula; Gangemi, Michael; Thomas, Stuart; Janssen, Rabea; Blasche, Rose E.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine at-risk students and the reasons they give to explain their poor academic performance, with a view to developing a typology of at-risk students. A case study methodology was used to investigate the total population of at-risk students for Semester 2, 2008 studying at the Singapore campus of an…

The Study Elements and Indicators of Risk Management System for Secondary Schools in Thailand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wandee, Methenan; Sirisuthi, Chaiyuth; Leamvijarn, Subunn

2017-01-01

The purposes of this research aimed 1) to study the elements and indicators of risk management system for secondary schools in Thailand. 2) to study suitable the elements and indicators of the risk management system for secondary schools in Thailand. 3) to study the results of CFA (Confirmatory Factors Analysis) risk management process of risk…

Assessing Risk Prediction Models Using Individual Participant Data From Multiple Studies

PubMed Central

Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R.; Thompson, Simon G.; Wood, Angela M.; Tipping, Robert W.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Couper, David J.; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Coresh, Josef; Goya Wannamethee, S.; Morris, Richard W.; Kiechl, Stefan; Willeit, Johann; Willeit, Peter; Schett, Georg; Ebrahim, Shah; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Yarnell, John W.; Gallacher, John; Cushman, Mary; Psaty, Bruce M.; Tracy, Russ; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Price, Jackie F.; Lee, Amanda J.; McLachlan, Stela; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Brenner, Hermann; Schöttker, Ben; Müller, Heiko; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Wennberg, Patrik; Salomaa, Veikko; Harald, Kennet; Jousilahti, Pekka; Vartiainen, Erkki; Woodward, Mark; D'Agostino, Ralph B.; Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Jørgensen, Torben; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Arima, Hisatomi; Doi, Yasufumi; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Nijpels, Giel; Stehouwer, Coen D. A.; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T.; Meade, Tom W.; Cooper, Jackie A.; Cushman, Mary; Folsom, Aaron R.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Shea, Steven; Döring, Angela; Kuller, Lewis H.; Grandits, Greg; Gillum, Richard F.; Mussolino, Michael; Rimm, Eric B.; Hankinson, Sue E.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Pai, Jennifer K.; Kirkland, Susan; Shaffer, Jonathan A.; Shimbo, Daichi; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Hillege, Hans L.; Amouyel, Philippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Evans, Alun; Ferrières, Jean; Sattar, Naveed; Westendorp, Rudi G.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Cantin, Bernard; Lamarche, Benoît; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Wingard, Deborah L.; Bettencourt, Richele; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Aspelund, Thor; Sigurdsson, Gunnar; Thorsson, Bolli; Kavousi, Maryam; Witteman, Jacqueline C.; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H.; Howard, Barbara V.; Zhang, Ying; Best, Lyle; Umans, Jason G.; Onat, Altan; Sundström, Johan; Michael Gaziano, J.; Stampfer, Meir; Ridker, Paul M.; Michael Gaziano, J.; Ridker, Paul M.; Marmot, Michael; Clarke, Robert; Collins, Rory; Fletcher, Astrid; Brunner, Eric; Shipley, Martin; Kivimäki, Mika; Ridker, Paul M.; Buring, Julie; Cook, Nancy; Ford, Ian; Shepherd, James; Cobbe, Stuart M.; Robertson, Michele; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; Alexander, Myriam; Butterworth, Adam S.; Angelantonio, Emanuele Di; Gao, Pei; Haycock, Philip; Kaptoge, Stephen; Pennells, Lisa; Thompson, Simon G.; Walker, Matthew; Watson, Sarah; White, Ian R.; Wood, Angela M.; Wormser, David; Danesh, John

2014-01-01

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous. PMID:24366051

Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies.

PubMed

Pennells, Lisa; Kaptoge, Stephen; White, Ian R; Thompson, Simon G; Wood, Angela M

2014-03-01

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.

PubMed

Lee, Suzanne; Ayers, Susan; Holden, Des

2014-04-01

risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies. a systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that reported qualitative research into risk perception in relation to high risk pregnancy. A metasynthesis was developed to describe and interpret the studies. the synthesis resulted in the identification of five themes: determinants of risk perception; not seeing it the way others do; normality versus risk; if the infant is ok, I׳m ok; managing risk. this metasynthesis suggests women at high risk during pregnancy use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status. It shows women are aware of the risks posed by their pregnancies but do not perceive risk in the same way as healthcare professionals. They will take steps to ensure the health of themselves and their infants but these may not include following all medical recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

To Take Risk is to Face Loss: A Tonic Pupillometry Study

PubMed Central

Yechiam, Eldad; Telpaz, Ariel

2011-01-01

The construct of risk taking is studied through the prism of the relation between tonic arousal and risk taking behavior. Several theories have proposed that high aroused individuals tend to exhibit risk aversion. We posit that this arousal–behavior association is activated much more strongly in risks with losses, as losses increase arousal and trigger relevant traits associated with the sensitivity to risk. In three studies we examined risk taking in experience-based decision tasks, with either token losses or relative-losses (in the gain domain). In Study 1 we found a negative correlation between pre-task pupil diameter and risk taking in the loss domain but not in the gain domain. In Study 2 we re-analyzed a previous pupillometry dataset involving symmetric mixed gains and losses. We found that the negative correlation in this mixed condition emerged even while the participants did not show loss aversion. This finding was replicated in Study 3. Thus, the effect of losses on arousal provides sufficient conditions for the moderation of the tonic arousal–behavior association. The findings suggest an important role for losses in the psychological and physiological experience of risk. PMID:22125546

Beverage consumption and risk of ulcerative colitis: Systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Nie, Jia-Yan; Zhao, Qiu

2017-12-01

Epidemiological studies have provided controversial evidence between beverage consumption and the risk of ulcerative colitis (UC). This study aimed to determine the role of beverage consumption in the development of UC. A systematic search was conducted in public databases to identify all relevant studies, and study-specific relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using a random-effects model. Sixteen studies were identified with a total of 3689 cases and 335,339 controls. Alcohol consumption showed no significant association with UC risk (RR for the highest vs the lowest consumption level: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.65-1.39). Coffee consumption tended to be inversely associated with UC risk (RR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.33-1.05), but it was not significant and confounded by smoking adjustment. Soft drinks consumption was associated with UC risk (RR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.24-2.30), and tea consumption was inversely associated with UC risk (RR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.58-0.83). In conclusion, high consumption of soft drinks might increase the risk of UC, while tea consumption might decrease the risk.

Predicting Risk of Cognitive Decline in Very Old Adults Using Three Models: The Framingham Stroke Risk Profile; the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia Model; and Oxi-Inflammatory Biomarkers.

PubMed

Harrison, Stephanie L; de Craen, Anton J M; Kerse, Ngaire; Teh, Ruth; Granic, Antoneta; Davies, Karen; Wesnes, Keith A; den Elzen, Wendy P J; Gussekloo, Jacobijn; Kirkwood, Thomas B L; Robinson, Louise; Jagger, Carol; Siervo, Mario; Stephan, Blossom C M

2017-02-01

To examine the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP); the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE) risk score, and oxi-inflammatory load (cumulative risk score of three blood biomarkers-homocysteine, interleukin-6, C-reactive protein) for associations with cognitive decline using three cohort studies of very old adults and to examine whether incorporating these biomarkers with the risk scores can affect the association with cognitive decline. Three longitudinal, population-based cohort studies. Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom; Leiden, the Netherlands; and Lakes and Bay of Plenty District Health Board areas, New Zealand. Newcastle 85+ Study participants (n = 616), Leiden 85-plus Study participants (n = 444), and Life and Living in Advanced Age, a Cohort Study in New Zealand (LiLACS NZ Study) participants (n = 396). FSRP, CAIDE risk score, oxi-inflammatory load, FSRP incorporating oxi-inflammatory load, and CAIDE risk score incorporating oxi-inflammatory load. Oxi-inflammatory load could be calculated only in the Newcastle 85+ and the Leiden 85-plus studies. Measures of global cognitive function were available for all three data sets. Domain-specific measures were available for the Newcastle 85+ and the Leiden 85-plus studies. Meta-analysis of pooled results showed greater risk of incident global cognitive impairment with higher FSRP (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.98), CAIDE (HR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.09-2.14), and oxi-inflammatory load (HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.04-2.88) scores. Adding oxi-inflammatory load to the risk scores increased the risk of cognitive impairment for the FSRP (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.17-2.33) and the CAIDE model (HR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.39-2.67). Adding oxi-inflammatory load to cardiovascular risk scores may be useful for determining risk of cognitive impairment in very old adults. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Polygenic risk predicts obesity in both white and black young adults.

PubMed

Domingue, Benjamin W; Belsky, Daniel W; Harris, Kathleen Mullan; Smolen, Andrew; McQueen, Matthew B; Boardman, Jason D

2014-01-01

To test transethnic replication of a genetic risk score for obesity in white and black young adults using a national sample with longitudinal data. A prospective longitudinal study using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health Sibling Pairs (n = 1,303). Obesity phenotypes were measured from anthropometric assessments when study members were aged 18-26 and again when they were 24-32. Genetic risk scores were computed based on published genome-wide association study discoveries for obesity. Analyses tested genetic associations with body-mass index (BMI), waist-height ratio, obesity, and change in BMI over time. White and black young adults with higher genetic risk scores had higher BMI and waist-height ratio and were more likely to be obese compared to lower genetic risk age-peers. Sibling analyses revealed that the genetic risk score was predictive of BMI net of risk factors shared by siblings. In white young adults only, higher genetic risk predicted increased risk of becoming obese during the study period. In black young adults, genetic risk scores constructed using loci identified in European and African American samples had similar predictive power. Cumulative information across the human genome can be used to characterize individual level risk for obesity. Measured genetic risk accounts for only a small amount of total variation in BMI among white and black young adults. Future research is needed to identify modifiable environmental exposures that amplify or mitigate genetic risk for elevated BMI.

Night Shift Work and Risk of Depression: Meta-analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Lee, Aeyoung; Myung, Seung Kwon; Cho, Jung Jin; Jung, Yu Jin; Yoon, Jong Lull; Kim, Mee Young

2017-07-01

This study aimed to assess whether night shift work is associated with the risk of depression by using a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in August, 2016 to locate eligible studies and investigated the association between night shift work and the risk of depression, reporting outcome measures with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the meta-analysis of a total of 11 observational studies with 9 cross-sectional study, 1 longitudinal study, and 1 cohort study, night shift work was significantly associated with an increased risk of depression (OR/RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24-1.64; I² = 78.0%). Also, subgroup meta-analyses by gender, night shift work duration, type of occupation, continent, and type of publication showed that night shift work was consistently associated with the increased risk of depression. The current meta-analysis suggests that night shift work is associated with the increased risk of depression. However, further large prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm this association. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Night Shift Work and Risk of Depression: Meta-analysis of Observational Studies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This study aimed to assess whether night shift work is associated with the risk of depression by using a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in August, 2016 to locate eligible studies and investigated the association between night shift work and the risk of depression, reporting outcome measures with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the meta-analysis of a total of 11 observational studies with 9 cross-sectional study, 1 longitudinal study, and 1 cohort study, night shift work was significantly associated with an increased risk of depression (OR/RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24–1.64; I2 = 78.0%). Also, subgroup meta-analyses by gender, night shift work duration, type of occupation, continent, and type of publication showed that night shift work was consistently associated with the increased risk of depression. The current meta-analysis suggests that night shift work is associated with the increased risk of depression. However, further large prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm this association. PMID:28581264

Diet Quality during Infancy and Early Childhood in Children with and without Risk of Type 1 Diabetes: A DEDIPAC Study

PubMed Central

Schoen, Stefanie; Jergens, Sibille; Barbaresko, Janett; Nöthlings, Ute; Kersting, Mathilde; Remer, Thomas; Stelmach-Mardas, Marta; Ziegler, Anette-G.; Hummel, Sandra

2017-01-01

Previous studies have indicated that mothers of children at increased risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) may modify their child’s diet following risk notification. Our aim was to investigate the diet quality after notified of T1D risk in at-risk children compared to not-at-risk children. The quality of nutrient intake (PANDiet score) and food intake (analyzed by a newly developed score and the HuSKY score) were assessed using three-day dietary records collected for at-risk children (BABYDIET study, n = 109) and a matched sample of not-at-risk children (DONALD study, n = 205) at nine and 24 months of age. Nutrient and food intake quality were lower at nine months of age and food intake quality was lower at 24 months of age in at-risk than in not-at-risk children (p = 0.01 and p < 0.0001, respectively). The amount of added sugar was higher in at-risk children at both ages (p < 0.0001). In at-risk children, dietary quality was similar between children who were first exposed to gluten at six or 12 months of age. Despite being notified about their child’s risk of T1D, the child’s mother did not switch to healthier diets compared with not-at-risk mothers. PMID:28075358

Higher dietary folate intake reduces the breast cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, P; Li, C; Li, X; Li, J; Chu, R; Wang, H

2014-01-01

Background: Many epidemiological studies have investigated the association between folate intake, circulating folate level and risk of breast cancer; however, the findings were inconsistent between the studies. Methods: We searched the PubMed and MEDLINE databases updated to January, 2014 and performed the systematic review and meta-analysis of the published epidemiological studies to assess the associations between folate intake level, circulating folate level and the overall risk of breast cancer. Results: In all, 16 eligible prospective studies with a total of 744 068 participants and 26 205 breast cancer patients and 26 case–control studies with a total of 16 826 cases and 21 820 controls that have evaluated the association between folate intake and breast cancer risk were identified. Pooled analysis of the prospective studies and case–control studies suggested a potential nonlinearity relationship for dietary folate intake and breast cancer risk. Prospective studies indicated a U-shaped relationship for the dietary folate intake and breast cancer risk. Women with daily dietary folate intake between 153 and 400 μg showed a significant reduced breast cancer risk compared with those <153 μg, but not for those >400 μg. The case–control studies also suggested a significantly negative correlation between the dietary folate intake level and the breast cancer risk. Increased dietary folate intake reduced breast cancer risk for women with higher alcohol intake level, but not for those with lower alcohol intake. No significant association between circulating folate level and breast cancer risk was found when the results of 8 identified studies with 5924 participants were pooled. Conclusions: Our studies suggested that folate may have preventive effects against breast cancer risk, especially for those with higher alcohol consumption level; however, the dose and timing are critical and more studies are warranted to further elucidate the questions. PMID:24667649

Multi-variant study of obesity risk genes in African Americans: The Jackson Heart Study.

PubMed

Liu, Shijian; Wilson, James G; Jiang, Fan; Griswold, Michael; Correa, Adolfo; Mei, Hao

2016-11-30

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) has been successful in identifying obesity risk genes by single-variant association analysis. For this study, we designed steps of analysis strategy and aimed to identify multi-variant effects on obesity risk among candidate genes. Our analyses were focused on 2137 African American participants with body mass index measured in the Jackson Heart Study and 657 common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) genotyped at 8 GWAS-identified obesity risk genes. Single-variant association test showed that no SNPs reached significance after multiple testing adjustment. The following gene-gene interaction analysis, which was focused on SNPs with unadjusted p-value<0.10, identified 6 significant multi-variant associations. Logistic regression showed that SNPs in these associations did not have significant linear interactions; examination of genetic risk score evidenced that 4 multi-variant associations had significant additive effects of risk SNPs; and haplotype association test presented that all multi-variant associations contained one or several combinations of particular alleles or haplotypes, associated with increased obesity risk. Our study evidenced that obesity risk genes generated multi-variant effects, which can be additive or non-linear interactions, and multi-variant study is an important supplement to existing GWAS for understanding genetic effects of obesity risk genes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of religion on sexual HIV risk.

PubMed

Shaw, Stacey A; El-Bassel, Nabila

2014-08-01

This systematic review examines the relationship between religion and sexual HIV risk behavior. It focuses primarily on how studies have conceptualized and defined religion, methodologies, and sexual risk outcomes. We also describe regions where studies were conducted and mechanisms by which religion may be associated with sexual risk. We included 137 studies in this review, classifying them as measuring: (1) only religious affiliation (n = 57), (2) only religiosity (n = 48), and (3) both religious affiliation and religiosity (n = 32). A number of studies identified lower levels of sexual HIV risk among Muslims, although many of these examined HIV prevalence rather than specific behavioral risk outcomes. Most studies identified increased religiosity to be associated with lower levels of sexual HIV risk. This finding persists but is weaker when the outcome considered is condom use. The paper reviews ways in which religion may contribute to increase and reduction in sexual HIV risk, gaps in research, and implications for future research on religion and HIV.

Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study: Rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating rheumatoid arthritis risk education to first-degree relatives

PubMed Central

Sparks, Jeffrey A.; Iversen, Maura D.; Kroouze, Rachel Miller; Mahmoud, Taysir G.; Triedman, Nellie A.; Kalia, Sarah S.; Atkinson, Michael L.; Lu, Bing; Deane, Kevin D.; Costenbader, Karen H.; Green, Robert C.; Karlson, Elizabeth W.

2014-01-01

We present the rationale, design features, and protocol of the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02046005). The PRE-RA Family Study is an NIH-funded prospective, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the willingness to change behaviors in first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without RA after exposure to RA risk educational programs. Consented subjects are randomized to receive education concerning their personalized RA risk based on demographics, RA-associated behaviors, genetics and biomarkers or to receive standard RA information. Four behavioral factors associated with RA risk were identified from prior studies for inclusion in the risk estimate: cigarette smoking, excess body weight, poor oral health, and low fish intake. Personalized RA risk information is presented through an online tool that collects data on an individual's specific age, gender, family history, and risk-related behaviors; presents genetic and biomarker results; displays relative and absolute risk of RA; and provides personalized feedback and education. The trial outcomes will be changes in willingness to alter behaviors from baseline to 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months in the three intervention groups. The design and execution of this trial that targets a special population at risk for RA, while incorporating varied risk factors into a single risk tool, offer distinct challenges. We provide the theoretical rationale for the PRE-RA Family Study and highlight particular design features of this trial that utilize personalized risk education as an intervention. PMID:25151341

Workplace exposure to passive smoking and risk of cardiovascular disease: summary of epidemiologic studies.

PubMed Central

Kawachi, I; Colditz, G A

1999-01-01

We reviewed the published epidemiologic studies addressing the relationship between workplace exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and cardiovascular disease risk in three case-control studies and three cohort studies. Although the point estimates of risk for cardiovascular disease exceeded 1.0 in five of six studies, none of the relative risks was statistically significant because of the small number of cardiovascular end points occurring in individual studies. In common with most epidemiologic investigations of the health risks of ETS, none of the workplace studies included independent biochemical validation of ETS exposure. In contrast to the evidence on increased cardiovascular disease risk from exposure to spousal ETS, studies of ETS exposure in the workplace are still sparse and inconclusive. Conversely, there is no biologically plausible reason to believe that the hazards of ETS exposure that have been demonstrated in the home should not also apply to the workplace. PMID:10592141

A qualitative study on acceptable levels of risk for pregnant women in clinical research.

PubMed

van der Zande, Indira S E; van der Graaf, Rieke; Oudijk, Martijn A; van Delden, Johannes J M

2017-05-15

There is ambiguity with regard to what counts as an acceptable level of risk in clinical research in pregnant women and there is no input from stakeholders relative to such research risks. The aim of our paper was to explore what stakeholders who are actively involved in the conduct of clinical research in pregnant women deem an acceptable level of risk for pregnant women in clinical research. Accordingly, we used the APOSTEL VI study, a low-risk obstetrical randomised controlled trial, as a case-study. We conducted a prospective qualitative study using 35 in-depth semi-structured interviews and one focus group. We interviewed healthcare professionals, Research Ethics Committee members (RECs) and regulators who are actively involved in the conduct of clinical research in pregnant women, in addition to pregnant women recruited for the APOSTEL VI case-study in the Netherlands. Three themes characterise the way stakeholders view risks in clinical research in pregnant women in general. Additionally, one theme characterises the way healthcare professionals and pregnant women view risks with respect to the case-study specifically. First, ideas on what constitutes an acceptable level of risk in general ranged from a preference for zero risk for the foetus up to minimal risk. Second, the desirability of clinical research in pregnant women in general was questioned altogether. Third, stakeholders proposed to establish an upper limit of risk in potentially beneficial clinical research in pregnant women in order to protect the foetus and the pregnant woman from harm. Fourth and finally, the case-study illustrates that healthcare professionals' individual perception of risk may influence recruitment. Healthcare professionals, RECs, regulators and pregnant women are all risk adverse in practice, possibly explaining the continuing underrepresentation of pregnant women in clinical research. Determining the acceptable levels of risk on a universal level alone is insufficient, because the individual perception of risk also influences behaviour towards pregnant women in clinical research. Therefore, bioethicists and researchers might be interested in changing the perception of risk, which could be achieved by education and awareness about the actual benefits and harms of inclusion and exclusion of pregnant women.

Risks from Radon: Reconciling Miner and Residential Epidemiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, Douglas B.; Harley, Naomi H.

2008-08-01

Everyone is exposed to radon, an inert radioactive gas that occurs naturally and is present everywhere in the atmosphere. The annual dose from radon and its (short-lived) decay products is typically about one-half of the dose received by members of the public from all natural sources of ionizing radiation. Data on exposures and consequent effects have recently been reviewed by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Studies of underground miners provides a well-established basis for estimating risks from occupational exposures to radon and for studying factors that may affect the dose response relationship such as the reduction of risk (coefficients) with increasing time since exposure. Miners' studies previously formed the basis for estimating risks to people exposed to radon at home, with downward extrapolation from exposures in mines to residential levels of radon. Presently, the risk estimates from residential studies are adequate to estimate radon risks in homes. Although there are major uncertainties in extrapolating the risks of exposure to radon from the miner studies to assessing risks in the home, there is remarkably good agreement between the average of risk factors derived from miner studies and those from pooled residential case-control studies. There are now over 20 analytical studies of residential radon and lung cancer. These studies typically assess the relative risk from exposure to radon based on estimates of residential exposure over a period of 25 to 30 years prior to diagnosis of lung cancer. Recent pooled analyses of residential case-control studies support a small but detectable lung cancer risk from residential exposure, and this risk increases with increasing concentrations. The excess relative risk of lung cancer from long-term residential exposure is about the same for both smokers and non-smokers; however, because the baseline lung cancer rate for smokers is much higher than for non or never smokers, smokers account for nearly 90% of the population risk from residential exposure to radon. As described in the paper, an excess relative risk (ERR) of 0.12(95% CI: 0.08-0.2)per 100 Bq m-3 (radon gas) can be estimated from combined miner studies. This compares well with the ERR from pooled residential case-control studies (for restricted analysis) for Europe of 0.16(95% CI: 0.05-0.31)[1] and for North America of 0.11(95% CI: 0.0-0.28)[2].

Risk in daily newspaper coverage of red tide blooms in Southwest Florida.

PubMed

Li, Zongchao; Garrison, Bruce; Ullmann, Steven G; Kirkpatrick, Barbara; Fleming, Lora E; Hoagland, Porter

This study investigated newspaper coverage of Florida red tide blooms in four metropolitan areas of Southwest Florida during a 25-year period, 1987-2012. We focused on how journalists framed red tide stories with respect to environmental risk, health risk, and economic risk. We determined risk to be a key factor in this news coverage, being an aspect of coverage of red tide itself in terms of environmental risk, tourism risk, and public health risk. The study found that red tide news coverage is most often framed as an environmental story.

Mobile phone use and risk for intracranial tumors.

PubMed

Alexiou, George A; Sioka, Chrissa

2015-12-23

Mobile phone use has been discussed over the last few decades with increased risk for intracranial tumors. The majority of studies have been conducted on gliomas and meningiomas. Although some case-control studies have found a positive association between the use of mobile phones and the risk of tumors, other studies have reported no significant association. A possible long-term mobile phone use may lead to increased risk however, the evidences are not yet conclusive and further studies are needed. In the present study we reviewed the current evidence for the association between mobile phone use and risk for intracranial tumors.

Risk Assessment in Underground Coalmines Using Fuzzy Logic in the Presence of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathy, Debi Prasad; Ala, Charan Kumar

2018-04-01

Fatal accidents are occurring every year as regular events in Indian coal mining industry. To increase the safety conditions, it has become a prerequisite to performing a risk assessment of various operations in mines. However, due to uncertain accident data, it is hard to conduct a risk assessment in mines. The object of this study is to present a method to assess safety risks in underground coalmines. The assessment of safety risks is based on the fuzzy reasoning approach. Mamdani fuzzy logic model is developed in the fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB. A case study is used to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model. The summary of risk evaluation in case study mine indicated that mine fire has the highest risk level among all the hazard factors. This study could help the mine management to prepare safety measures based on the risk rankings obtained.

A Case-Control Study Estimating Accident Risk for Alcohol, Medicines and Illegal Drugs

PubMed Central

Kuypers, Kim Paula Colette; Legrand, Sara-Ann; Ramaekers, Johannes Gerardus; Verstraete, Alain Gaston

2012-01-01

Background The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. Methods A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases)/sampling (controls). The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR) for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161) and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301) were included in the study. Results Main findings were that 1) alcohol in general (all the concentrations together) caused an elevated crash risk; 2) cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3) when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. Conclusion The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope. PMID:22952694

Factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk: thai epidemiologic stroke study.

PubMed

Hanchaiphiboolkul, Suchat; Puthkhao, Pimchanok; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tasanee; Wangphonphatthanasiri, Khwanrat; Termglinchan, Thanes; Nidhinandana, Samart; Suwanwela, Nijasri Charnnarong; Poungvarin, Niphon

2014-08-01

The purpose of the study was to determine the factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on a risk score, and among the risk factors comprising the risk score, which factors had a greater impact on the estimated risk. Thai Epidemiologic Stroke study was a community-based cohort study, which recruited participants from the general population from 5 regions of Thailand. Cross-sectional baseline data of 16,611 participants aged 45-69 years who had no history of stroke were included in this analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on the risk score of the Japan Public Health Center Study, which estimated the projected 10-year risk of incident stroke. Educational level, low personal income, occupation, geographic area, alcohol consumption, and hypercholesterolemia were significantly associated with high estimated 10-year stroke risk. Among these factors, unemployed/house work class had the highest odds ratio (OR, 3.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.47-5.69) followed by illiterate class (OR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.44-3.66). Among risk factors comprising the risk score, the greatest impact as a stroke risk factor corresponded to age, followed by male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Socioeconomic status, in particular, unemployed/house work and illiterate class, might be good proxy to identify the individuals at higher risk of stroke. The most powerful risk factors were older age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Case Study of the Minimum Provable Risk Considering the Variation in Background Risk: Effect of Residual Risk on Epidemiological Studies and a Comparative Assessment of Fatal Disease Risk Due to Radiation Exposure.

PubMed

Sasaki, Michiya; Ogino, Haruyuki; Hattori, Takatoshi

2018-06-08

In order to prove a small increment in a risk of concern in an epidemiological study, a large sample of a population is generally required. Since the background risk of an end point of interest, such as cancer mortality, is affected by various factors, such as lifestyle (diet, smoking, etc.), adjustment for such factors is necessary. However, it is impossible to inclusively and completely adjust for such factors; therefore, uncertainty in the background risk remains for control and exposed populations, indicating that there is a minimum limit to the lower bound for the provable risk regardless of the sample size. In this case study, we developed and discussed the minimum provable risk considering the uncertainty in background risk for hypothetical populations by referring to recent Japanese statistical information to grasp the extent of the minimum provable risk. Risk of fatal diseases due to radiation exposure, which has recently been the focus of radiological protection, was also examined by comparative assessment of the minimum provable risk for cancer and circulatory diseases. It was estimated that the minimum provable risk for circulatory disease mortality was much greater than that for cancer mortality, approximately five to seven times larger; circulatory disease mortality is more difficult to prove as a radiation risk than cancer mortality under the conditions used in this case study.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal.

Cardiovascular risk factors among college students: Knowledge, perception, and risk assessment.

PubMed

Tran, Dieu-My T; Zimmerman, Lani M; Kupzyk, Kevin A; Shurmur, Scott W; Pullen, Carol H; Yates, Bernice C

2017-04-01

To assess college students' knowledge and perception of cardiovascular risk factors and to screen for their cardiovascular risks. The final sample that responded to recruitment consisted of 158 college students from a midwestern university. A cross-sectional, descriptive study was performed using convenience sampling. College students were knowledgeable about cardiovascular risk factors but did not perceive themselves at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors was correlated with the lifetime risk estimates (ρ = .17, p = .048), and perception of cardiovascular risk was positively associated with 30-year CVD risk estimates (ρ = .16, p = .048). More than 50% of the participants had 1 or more cardiovascular risk factors. High knowledge level of cardiovascular risk factors was not sufficient to lower cardiovascular risks within this study population, but changing perception of cardiovascular risk factors may play a bigger role in reducing long-term cardiovascular risks.

Perceived Risk and Risk Reduction Strategies in Study Abroad Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luethge, Denise J.

2004-01-01

The study abroad program (SAP) meets the criteria of a risky purchase, namely of being non-tangible, possessing hidden qualities, being expensive and cannot being able to be tested prior to purchase. In fact, SAPs may score highly on a number of risk components, especially financial risk (expensive), psychological risk (anxiety), physical risk…

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) risk assessment at core assembly production of electronic components manufacturing company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yahya, N. M.; Zahid, M. N. O.

2018-03-01

This study conducted to assess the work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) among the workers at core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company located in Pekan, Pahang, Malaysia. The study is to identify the WMDs risk factor and risk level. A set of questionnaires survey based on modified Nordic Musculoskeletal Disorder Questionnaires have been distributed to respective workers to acquire the WMDs risk factor identification. Then, postural analysis was conducted in order to measure the respective WMDs risk level. The analysis were based on two ergonomics assessment tools; Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) and Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). The study found that 30 respondents out of 36 respondents suffered from WMDs especially at shoulder, wrists and lower back. The WMDs risk have been identified from unloading process, pressing process and winding process. In term of the WMDs risk level, REBA and RULA assessment tools have indicated high risk level to unloading and pressing process. Thus, this study had established the WMDs risk factor and risk level of core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company at Malaysia environment.

Low cigarette consumption and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: meta-analysis of 141 cohort studies in 55 study reports.

PubMed

Hackshaw, Allan; Morris, Joan K; Boniface, Sadie; Tang, Jin-Ling; Milenković, Dušan

2018-01-24

To use the relation between cigarette consumption and cardiovascular disease to quantify the risk of coronary heart disease and stroke for light smoking (one to five cigarettes/day). Systematic review and meta-analysis. Medline 1946 to May 2015, with manual searches of references. Prospective cohort studies with at least 50 events, reporting hazard ratios or relative risks (both hereafter referred to as relative risk) compared with never smokers or age specific incidence in relation to risk of coronary heart disease or stroke. MOOSE guidelines were followed. For each study, the relative risk was estimated for smoking one, five, or 20 cigarettes per day by using regression modelling between risk and cigarette consumption. Relative risks were adjusted for at least age and often additional confounders. The main measure was the excess relative risk for smoking one cigarette per day (RR 1_per_day -1) expressed as a proportion of that for smoking 20 cigarettes per day (RR 20_per_day -1), expected to be about 5% assuming a linear relation between risk and consumption (as seen with lung cancer). The relative risks for one, five, and 20 cigarettes per day were also pooled across all studies in a random effects meta-analysis. Separate analyses were done for each combination of sex and disorder. The meta-analysis included 55 publications containing 141 cohort studies. Among men, the pooled relative risk for coronary heart disease was 1.48 for smoking one cigarette per day and 2.04 for 20 cigarettes per day, using all studies, but 1.74 and 2.27 among studies in which the relative risk had been adjusted for multiple confounders. Among women, the pooled relative risks were 1.57 and 2.84 for one and 20 cigarettes per day (or 2.19 and 3.95 using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). Men who smoked one cigarette per day had 46% of the excess relative risk for smoking 20 cigarettes per day (53% using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors), and women had 31% of the excess risk (38% using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). For stroke, the pooled relative risks for men were 1.25 and 1.64 for smoking one or 20 cigarettes per day (1.30 and 1.56 using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). In women, the pooled relative risks were 1.31 and 2.16 for smoking one or 20 cigarettes per day (1.46 and 2.42 using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). The excess risk for stroke associated with one cigarette per day (in relation to 20 cigarettes per day) was 41% for men and 34% for women (or 64% and 36% using relative risks adjusted for multiple factors). Relative risks were generally higher among women than men. Smoking only about one cigarette per day carries a risk of developing coronary heart disease and stroke much greater than expected: around half that for people who smoke 20 per day. No safe level of smoking exists for cardiovascular disease. Smokers should aim to quit instead of cutting down to significantly reduce their risk of these two common major disorders. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Risk of solid cancer in low dose-rate radiation epidemiological studies and the dose-rate effectiveness factor.

PubMed

Shore, Roy; Walsh, Linda; Azizova, Tamara; Rühm, Werner

2017-10-01

Estimated radiation risks used for radiation protection purposes have been based primarily on the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors who received brief exposures at high dose rates, many with high doses. Information is needed regarding radiation risks from low dose-rate (LDR) exposures to low linear-energy-transfer (low-LET) radiation. We conducted a meta-analysis of LDR epidemiologic studies that provide dose-response estimates of total solid cancer risk in adulthood in comparison to corresponding LSS risks, in order to estimate a dose rate effectiveness factor (DREF). We identified 22 LDR studies with dose-response risk estimates for solid cancer after minimizing information overlap. For each study, a parallel risk estimate was derived from the LSS risk model using matching values for sex, mean ages at first exposure and attained age, targeted cancer types, and accounting for type of dosimetric assessment. For each LDR study, a ratio of the excess relative risk per Gy (ERR Gy -1 ) to the matching LSS ERR risk estimate (LDR/LSS) was calculated, and a meta-analysis of the risk ratios was conducted. The reciprocal of the resultant risk ratio provided an estimate of the DREF. The meta-analysis showed a LDR/LSS risk ratio of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14, 0.57) for the 19 studies of solid cancer mortality and 0.33 (95% CI 0.13, 0.54) when three cohorts with only incidence data also were added, implying a DREF with values around 3, but statistically compatible with 2. However, the analyses were highly dominated by the Mayak worker study. When the Mayak study was excluded the LDR/LSS risk ratios increased: 1.12 (95% CI 0.40, 1.84) for mortality and 0.54 (95% CI 0.09, 0.99) for mortality + incidence, implying a lower DREF in the range of 1-2. Meta-analyses that included only cohorts in which the mean dose was <100 mGy yielded a risk ratio of 1.06 (95% CI 0.30, 1.83) for solid cancer mortality and 0.58 (95% CI 0.10, 1.06) for mortality + incidence data. The interpretation of a best estimate for a value of the DREF depends on the appropriateness of including the Mayak study. This study indicates a range of uncertainty in the value of DREF between 1 and about 2 after protracted radiation exposure. The LDR data provide direct evidence regarding risk from exposures at low dose rates as an important complement to the LSS risk estimates used for radiation protection purposes.

Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.

PubMed

Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K

2013-11-30

Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing risks in the fisheries supply chain using House of Risk Framework (HOR) and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, T. L. T.; Tran, T. T.; Huynh, T. P.; Ho, T. K. D.; Le, A. T.; Do, T. K. H.

2018-04-01

One of the sectors which contributes importantly to the development of Vietnam economy is fishery industry. However, during recent year, it has been witnessed many difficulties on managing the performance of the fishery supply chain operations as a whole. In this paper, a framework for supply chain risk management (SCRM) is proposed. Initially, all the activities are mapped by using Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model. Next, the risk ranking is analyzed in House of Risk. Furthermore, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) is used to identify inter-relationships among supply chain risks and to visualize the risks according to their levels. For illustration, the model has been tested in several case studies with fishery companies in Can Tho, Mekong Delta. This study identifies 22 risk events and 20 risk agents through the supply chain. Also, the risk priority could be used for further House of Risk with proactive actions in future studies.

Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease: The Doetinchem Cohort Study.

PubMed

Hulsegge, Gerben; Smit, Henriëtte A; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Verschuren, W M Monique

2015-10-01

Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Population-based cohort study. Risk factors were measured at baseline (1987-1991) among 5574 cardiovascular disease-free adults aged 20-59 years. They were classified into four risk categories according to smoking status, presence of diabetes and widely accepted cut-off values for blood pressure, total cholesterol/HDL-ratio and body mass index. Categories were subdivided (maintenance, deterioration, improvement) based on risk factor levels at six and 11 years of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for cardiovascular disease incidence 5-10 years following the risk-change period were fitted using Cox proportional hazards models. Only 12% of participants were low risk at baseline, and only 7% maintained it. Participants who maintained a low risk profile over 11 years had seven times lower risk of cardiovascular disease (HR: 0.14, 95% CI: 0.05-0.41) than participants with long-term high risk profile, whereas those low risk at baseline whose profile deteriorated had three times lower risk (HR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.18-0.71). Our results suggest that, within each baseline risk profile group, compared with a stable profile, improving profiles may be associated with up to two-fold lower HRs, and deteriorating profiles with about two-fold higher HRs. Our study, using long-term risk profiles, demonstrates the full benefits of low risk profile. These findings underscore the importance of achieving and maintaining low risk from young adulthood onwards. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

Multi-angle Indicators System of Non-point Pollution Source Assessment in Rural Areas: A Case Study Near Taihu Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lei; Ban, Jie; Han, Yu Ting; Yang, Jie; Bi, Jun

2013-04-01

This study aims to identify key environmental risk sources contributing to water eutrophication and to suggest certain risk management strategies for rural areas. The multi-angle indicators included in the risk source assessment system were non-point source pollution, deficient waste treatment, and public awareness of environmental risk, which combined psychometric paradigm methods, the contingent valuation method, and personal interviews to describe the environmental sensitivity of local residents. Total risk values of different villages near Taihu Lake were calculated in the case study, which resulted in a geographic risk map showing which village was the critical risk source of Taihu eutrophication. The increased application of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N), loss vulnerability of pollutant, and a lack of environmental risk awareness led to more serious non-point pollution, especially in rural China. Interesting results revealed by the quotient between the scores of objective risk sources and subjective risk sources showed what should be improved for each study village. More environmental investments, control of agricultural activities, and promotion of environmental education are critical considerations for rural environmental management. These findings are helpful for developing targeted and effective risk management strategies in rural areas.

The relationship between the effect of pravastatin and risk factors for coronary heart disease in Japanese patients with hypercholesterolemia.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Toshitsugu; Mizuno, Kyoichi; Nakaya, Noriaki; Ohashi, Yasuo; Tajima, Naoko; Kushiro, Toshio; Teramoto, Tamio; Uchiyama, Shinichiro; Nakamura, Haruo

2008-10-01

Several epidemiologic studies in Japan have shown the risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. The present analysis determined the risk factors for CHD in the MEGA Study, a large primary prevention trial with pravastatin in Japanese with hypercholesterolemia. The relationship between each baseline characteristic and the risk of CHD for the 5-year study period were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazard model. The multivariable predictors of CHD were sex, age, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension (HT), and history of smoking. Serum total and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol were not independent risk factors for CHD in the current analysis. In addition, the effect of pravastatin was evaluated by subgroups in each risk factor using the interaction in a Cox model. Diet plus pravastatin treatment reduced CHD risk by 14-43% compared with diet alone, regardless of the presence or absence of risk factors. The risk factors for CHD were sex, age, DM, HT, smoking, and low HDL-C in the MEGA Study. The pravastatin treatment was effective for reducing the risk of CHD, regardless of the presence of risk factors.

A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies

PubMed Central

Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A.; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S.; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S.; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G.; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C.M.; Pencina, Michael J.; Folsom, Aaron R.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Boerwinkle, Eric

2013-01-01

Objective Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). Methods SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. Results The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ= 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004–0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10–1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02–1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Conclusion Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. PMID:22789513

Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

PubMed

Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

2007-02-01

Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian populations as tools developed from data on local cohorts.

[Four numbers and a bit more basic knowledge of mathematics].

PubMed

Günther, Judith; Briel, Matthias; Suter, Katja

2015-02-01

In addition to relative risk, relative risk reduction and absolute risk reduction there circulates another effect size for binary endpoints in the scientific medical literature: the odds ratio. Relative risk and odds ratio are alternative ways of reflecting study results. Both, relative risk (RR) and odds ratio (OR), can easily be calculated from the "2 x 2-table". Advantage of OR: odds ratios can be calculated in every type of controlled study design, including retrospective studies. Furthermore, odds ratios--the biostatisticians are swarming--offer beautiful mathematical properties and therefore are often used in meta-analysis as an effect size for calculating a pooled estimate of the results of different studies with the same clinical question. Disadvantage of OR: In clinical studies the presentation of the results as "odds ratios" may result in an overestimation of the intervention effect. This article shows the difference between "chance" and "risk" and how odds ratio and relative risk are associated.

Improving the Linkages between Air Pollution Epidemiology and Quantitative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Bell, Michelle L.; Walker, Katy; Hubbell, Bryan

2011-01-01

Background: Air pollution epidemiology plays an integral role in both identifying the hazards of air pollution as well as supplying the risk coefficients that are used in quantitative risk assessments. Evidence from both epidemiology and risk assessments has historically supported critical environmental policy decisions. The extent to which risk assessors can properly specify a quantitative risk assessment and characterize key sources of uncertainty depends in part on the availability, and clarity, of data and assumptions in the epidemiological studies. Objectives: We discuss the interests shared by air pollution epidemiology and risk assessment communities in ensuring that the findings of epidemiological studies are appropriately characterized and applied correctly in risk assessments. We highlight the key input parameters for risk assessments and consider how modest changes in the characterization of these data might enable more accurate risk assessments that better represent the findings of epidemiological studies. Discussion: We argue that more complete information regarding the methodological choices and input data used in epidemiological studies would support more accurate risk assessments—to the benefit of both disciplines. In particular, we suggest including additional details regarding air quality, demographic, and health data, as well as certain types of data-rich graphics. Conclusions: Relatively modest changes to the data reported in epidemiological studies will improve the quality of risk assessments and help prevent the misinterpretation and mischaracterization of the results of epidemiological studies. Such changes may also benefit epidemiologists undertaking meta-analyses. We suggest workshops as a way to improve the dialogue between the two communities. PMID:21816702

Depression and Anxiety as Risk Factors for Morbidity and Mortality after Organ Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis1

PubMed Central

Dew, Mary Amanda; Rosenberger, Emily M.; Myaskovsky, Larissa; DiMartini, Andrea F.; DeVito Dabbs, Annette J.; Posluszny, Donna M.; Steel, Jennifer; Switzer, Galen E.; Shellmer, Diana A.; Greenhouse, Joel B.

2015-01-01

Background Depression and anxiety are common mental health problems in transplant populations. There is mixed evidence concerning whether they increase morbidity and mortality risks post-transplant. If such associations exist, additional risk reduction strategies may be needed. Methods Four bibliographic databases were searched from 1981 through September, 2014 for studies prospectively examining whether depression or anxiety (determined with diagnostic evaluations or standardized symptom scales) affected risk for post-transplant mortality, graft loss, acute graft rejection, chronic rejection, cancer, infection, and rehospitalization. Results Twenty-seven studies (10 heart, total n=1,738; 6 liver, n=1,063; 5 kidney, n=49,515; 4 lung, n=584; 1 pancreas, n=80; 1 mixed recipient sample, n=205) were identified. In each, depression and/or anxiety were typically measured pre- or early post-transplant. Follow-up for outcomes was a median of 5.8 years (range:0.50–18.0). Depression increased the relative risk (RR) of mortality by 65% (RR=1.65, 95% CI:1.34,2.05; 20 studies). Meta-regression indicated that risk was stronger in studies that did (v. did not) control for potential confounders(p=.032). Risk was unaffected by type of transplant or other study characteristics. Depression increased death-censored graft loss risk (RR=1.65, CI:1.21,2.26, 3 studies). Depression was not associated with other morbidities (each morbidity assessed in 1–4 studies). Anxiety did not significantly increase mortality risk (RR=1.39, CI:0.85,2.27, 6 studies) or morbidity risks (assessed in single studies). Conclusions Depression increases risk for post-transplant mortality. Few studies considered morbidities; the depression-graft loss association suggests that linkages with morbidities deserve greater attention. Depression screening and treatment may be warranted, although whether these activities would reduce post-transplant mortality requires study. PMID:26492128

Depression and Anxiety as Risk Factors for Morbidity and Mortality After Organ Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Dew, Mary Amanda; Rosenberger, Emily M; Myaskovsky, Larissa; DiMartini, Andrea F; DeVito Dabbs, Annette J; Posluszny, Donna M; Steel, Jennifer; Switzer, Galen E; Shellmer, Diana A; Greenhouse, Joel B

2015-05-01

Depression and anxiety are common mental health problems in transplant populations. There is mixed evidence concerning whether they increase morbidity and mortality risks after transplantation. If such associations exist, additional risk reduction strategies may be needed. Four bibliographic databases were searched from 1981 through September 2014 for studies prospectively examining whether depression or anxiety (determined with diagnostic evaluations or standardized symptom scales) affected risk for posttransplant mortality, graft loss, acute graft rejection, chronic rejection, cancer, infection, and rehospitalization. Twenty-seven studies (10 heart, total n = 1738; 6 liver, n = 1063; 5 kidney, n = 49515; 4 lung, n = 584; 1 pancreas, n = 80; 1 mixed recipient sample, n = 205) were identified. In each, depression and/or anxiety were typically measured before or early after transplantation. Follow-up for outcomes was a median of 5.8 years (range, 0.50-18.0). Depression increased the relative risk (RR) of mortality by 65% (RR, 1.65; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.34-2.05; 20 studies). Meta-regression indicated that risk was stronger in studies that did (vs did not) control for potential confounders (P = .032). Risk was unaffected by type of transplant or other study characteristics. Depression increased death-censored graft loss risk (RR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.21-2.26, 3 studies). Depression was not associated with other morbidities (each morbidity was assessed in 1-4 studies). Anxiety did not significantly increase mortality risk (RR, 1.39; 95% CI, 0.85-2.27, 6 studies) or morbidity risks (assessed in single studies). Depression increases risk for posttransplant mortality. Few studies considered morbidities; the depression-graft loss association suggests that linkages with morbidities deserve greater attention. Depression screening and treatment may be warranted, although whether these activities would reduce posttransplant mortality requires study.

The Alaska Education and Research Towards Health (EARTH) Study: cancer risk factors.

PubMed

Lanier, Anne P; Redwood, Diana G; Kelly, Janet J

2012-04-01

The Alaska Education and Research Towards Health (EARTH) Study assessed cancer risk among 3,821 Alaska Native people (AN). We present the prevalence of selected cancer risk factors and comparison with Healthy People 2010 goals. Participants completed extensive computer-assisted self-administered questionnaires on diet, physical activity, tobacco and alcohol use, cancer screening, family history of cancer, and environmental exposures. Measurement data were collected on blood pressure, height, weight, waist/hip circumference, fasting serum lipids, and glucose. Cancer risk factors are high for the Alaska EARTH study population. For all risk factors studied except for vegetable consumption, Alaska EARTH Study participants did not meet Healthy People 2010 goals. This study is unique in providing questionnaire and measurement data of cancer risk factors on a larger study sample than any previous study among AN living in Alaska. Data show that the prevalence of most cancer risk factors exceeded national recommendations. Given the disease disparities that exist for the AN population, these data provide important baseline data that can be used to target health interventions and reduce health disparities.

Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

PubMed

Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

2013-02-01

Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and Validation of a Video Measure for Assessing Women’s Risk Perception for Alcohol-Related Sexual Assault

PubMed Central

Parks, Kathleen A.; Levonyan-Radloff, Kristine; Dearing, Ronda L.; Hequembourg, Amy; Testa, Maria

2016-01-01

Objective Using an iterative process, a series of three video scenarios were developed for use as a standardized measure for assessing women’s perception of risks for alcohol-related sexual assault (SA). The videos included ambiguous and clear behavioral and environmental risk cues. Method Focus group discussions with young, female heavy drinkers (N = 42) were used to develop three videos at different risk levels (low, moderate, and high) in Study 1. Realism, reliability, and validity of the videos were assessed using multiple methods in Studies 2 and 3. One hundred-four women were used to compare differences in risk perception across the video risk level in Study 2. In Study 3 (N = 60), we assessed women’s perceptions of the low and high risk videos under conditions of no alcohol and alcohol. Results The realism and reliability of the videos were good. Women who viewed the low risk video compared to women who viewed the moderate and high risk videos perceived less risk for SA. We found an interaction between alcohol and risk perception such that, women in the alcohol condition were less likely to perceive risk when watching the high risk video. Conclusions As the video risk level increased, women’s perception of risk increased. These findings provide convergent evidence for the validity of the video measure. Given the limited number of standardized scenarios for assessing risk perception for sexual assault, our findings suggest that these videos may provide a needed standardized measure. PMID:27747131

What leads some people to think they are HIV-positive before knowing their diagnosis? A systematic review of psychological and behavioural correlates of HIV-risk perception.

PubMed

Evangeli, Michael; Baker, Laura L E; Pady, Kirsten; Jones, Bethanie; Wroe, Abigail L

2016-08-01

Current HIV-risk perception refers to the extent to which individuals think they might be HIV-positive. This belief, distinct from the perceived risk about being infected with HIV in the future, is likely to have a range of important consequences. These consequences may include both psychological effects (e.g., impacts on well-being) and behavioural effects (e.g., HIV testing uptake). Given these possible outcomes, and the suggested importance of risk perception in health behaviour models, understanding the behavioural and psychological antecedents of current HIV-risk perception is crucial. This systematic review investigates the relationship between behavioural and psychological factors and current HIV-risk perception (in individuals who are unaware of their actual HIV status). Eight studies were eligible for inclusion in the review (five quantitative and three qualitative studies). Drug risk behaviour and sexual risk behaviour (both self and partner) were often associated with current HIV-risk perception, although other studies failed to show a relationship between one's own sexual risk behaviour and risk perception. Psychological factors were only rarely assessed in relation to current HIV-risk perception. Where these variables were included, there was evidence that experiencing symptoms perceived to be consistent with HIV and prompts to test were associated with increased current HIV-risk perception. These findings are consistent with the Common-Sense Model (CSM) of illness representation and self-regulation. Methodological quality criteria were rarely met for the included studies. In addition, it was often difficult to ascertain whether potentially includable studies were eligible due to imprecise definitions of HIV-risk perception. Research and practice implications are discussed, with particular emphasis on the role of risk appraisals as a potential mediator of the relationship between HIV-risk behaviour, symptoms and current HIV-risk perception.

Genetic Susceptibility to Lymphoma

PubMed Central

Skibola, Christine F.; Curry, John D.; Nieters, Alexandra

2010-01-01

BACKGROUND Genetic susceptibility studies of lymphoma may serve to identify at risk populations and to elucidate important disease mechanisms. METHODS This review considered all studies published through October 2006 on the contribution of genetic polymorphisms in the risk of lymphoma. RESULTS Numerous studies implicate the role of genetic variants that promote B-cell survival and growth with increased risk of lymphoma. Several reports including a large pooled study by InterLymph, an international consortium of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) case-control studies, found positive associations between variant alleles in TNF -308G>A and IL10 -3575T>A genes and risk of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. Four studies reported positive associations between a GSTT1 deletion and risk of Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Genetic studies of folate-metabolizing genes implicate folate in NHL risk, but further studies that include folate and alcohol assessments are needed. Links between NHL and genes involved in energy regulation and hormone production and metabolism may provide insights into novel mechanisms implicating neuro- and endocrine-immune cross-talk with lymphomagenesis, but will need replication in larger populations. CONCLUSIONS Numerous studies suggest that common genetic variants with low penetrance influence lymphoma risk, though replication studies will be needed to eliminate false positive associations. PMID:17606447

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2009-04-01

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

Grandparents, parents, and grandchildren at high risk for depression: a three-generation study.

PubMed

Warner, V; Weissman, M M; Mufson, L; Wickramaratne, P J

1999-03-01

High-risk studies of psychiatric disorders in parents and offspring that include 3 generations are uncommon. Multigenerational studies can be clinically useful as they can provide information for risk prediction from one generation to another for the development of empirically based interventions. Using a high-risk design, this study examines the association of grandparent major depressive disorder (MDD) and parent MDD with psychopathology in grandchildren. Using Cox proportional hazards in a sample of 90 grandchildren at high and low risk for depression by virtue of their grandparents' and parents' depression status, the authors examined the risk for offspring depression and anxiety. Grandparent and parent MDD were associated with grandchild anxiety (relative risk [RR] = 5.51 and R = 3.09, respectively). Grandchildren with both a depressed parent and grandparent had the highest risk for anxiety. Parental MDD is associated with an increased risk for grandchild disruptive disorder (RR = 10.77). Forty-nine percent of the grandchildren in families in which both the parent and grandparent were depressed had some form of psychopathology. The grandchildren from those families were the most impaired. Prepubertal-onset anxiety disorder is a risk factor for the later development of clinically significant recurrent MDD across several generations of families at high risk for depression. Parental impaired functioning increases the risk for disruptive disorders. Children in families with multiple generations of depression are at particularly high risk for some form of psychopathology.

Associations between Yogurt Consumption and Weight Gain and Risk of Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome: A Systematic Review1234

PubMed Central

Martínez-González, Miguel A; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira

2017-01-01

The role of yogurt consumption in the risk of developing overweight, obesity, or metabolic syndrome has been the subject of epidemiologic studies over the last 10 y. A comprehensive literature search on MEDLINE and ISI Web of Knowledge from 1966 through June 2016 was conducted to examine the relation between yogurt consumption and weight gain, as well as the risk of overweight, obesity, or metabolic syndrome, in prospective cohort studies. Ten articles met all the inclusion criteria and were included in our systematic review. Of the 10 cohort studies, 3 analyzed the relation between yogurt consumption and the risk of overweight or obesity, 8 analyzed changes in waist circumference or weight changes, 3 studied the association with the risk of developing metabolic syndrome, and 1 studied the probability of abdominal obesity reversion. Although an inverse association between yogurt consumption and the risk of developing overweight or obesity was not fully consistent or always statistically significant, all studies but one showed in their point estimates inverse associations between yogurt consumption and changes in waist circumference, changes in weight, risk of overweight or obesity, and risk of metabolic syndrome during follow-up, although not all estimates were statistically significant (2 studies). Prospective cohort studies consistently suggested that yogurt consumption may contribute to a reduction in adiposity indexes and the risk of metabolic syndrome. Therefore, there is a need for more prospective studies and high-quality randomized clinical trials to confirm this apparent inverse association. PMID:28096138

The Effect of Subjective Risk Attitudes and Overconfidence on Risk Taking Behaviors: A Experimental Study Based on Traders of the Chinese Stock Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qi-An; Xiao, Yinghong; Chen, Hui; Chen, Liang

Our research analyzes the effect of the traders’ subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence on their risk taking behaviors on the Chinese Stock Market by experimental study method. We find that investors’ risk taking behavior is significantly affected by their subjective risk attitude, optimism and overconfidence. Our results also argue that the objective return and volatility of stock are not as good predictors of risk taking behavior as subjective risk and return measures. Moreover, we illustrate that overconfidence and optimism have an significant impact on risk taking behavior In line with theoretical models.

Occupation and leukemia: a population-based case-control study in Iowa and Minnesota.

PubMed

Blair, A; Zheng, T; Linos, A; Stewart, P A; Zhang, Y W; Cantor, K P

2001-07-01

Studies have suggested that risk of leukemia may be associated with occupational or industrial exposures and risk may vary by the histological type of the disease. A population-based case-control study was conducted in Iowa and Minnesota to evaluate the association between various occupations, industries, and occupational exposures and leukemia risk. A total of 513 cases and 1,087 controls was included in the study. A lifetime occupational history and other risk factor information were collected through in-person interviews, and a job-exposure matrix was used to assess possible risks associated with specific exposures. A significantly increased risk of leukemia was observed among agricultural service industries and among nursing and healthcare workers. Janitors, cleaners, and light truck drivers also experienced increased risk. Those employed in plumbing, heating and air conditioning industries, and sales of nondurable goods (such as paints and varnishes) had an increased risk. Printers, painters, and workers in the food and metal industries had a nonsignificantly increased risk of leukemia. Analyses by specific exposures and histology of leukemia showed that risk of leukemia associated with occupational or industrial exposures may vary by histological type of the disease. An increased risk of leukemia among workers employed in agricultural industries, nursing and healthcare workers, and in a few occupations with possible exposure to solvents is consistent with earlier studies. Associations of risk with occupations not observed previously deserve further assessment. Published 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Exploring Perceived Risk and Risk Reduction Strategies in the Pursuit of Higher Education Abroad

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Jason M. S.; Tong, David Yoon Kin; Ariffin, Ahmad Azmi M.

2017-01-01

While past studies have merely focused on perceived risks that influence how students select the destination of international education best suited to their needs, research on perceived risk regarding post-purchase behavior remains limited. This study attempts to extend and redefine the perceived risk paradigm by uncovering the underlying elements…

The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herrera, Carla; DuBois, David L.; Grossman, Jean Baldwin

2013-01-01

"The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles" presents findings from the first large-scale study to examine how the levels and types of risk youth face may influence their relationships with program-assigned mentors and the benefits they derive from these relationships. The study looked…

A Community-based Cross-sectional Study of Cardiovascular Risk in a Rural Community of Puducherry.

PubMed

Shrivastava, Saurabh R; Ghorpade, Arun G; Shrivastava, Prateek S

2015-01-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) / International Society of Hypertension (ISH) risk prediction chart can predict the risk of cardiovascular events in any population. To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and to estimate the cardiovascular risk using the WHO/ISH risk charts. A cross-sectional study was done from November 2011 to January 2012 in a rural area of Puducherry. Method of sampling was a single stage cluster random sampling, and subjects were enrolled depending on their suitability with the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The data collection tool was a piloted and semi-structured questionnaire, while WHO/ISH cardiovascular risk prediction charts for the South-East Asian region was used to predict the cardiovascular risk. Institutional Ethics committee permission was obtained before the start of the study. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS version 16 and appropriate statistical tests were applied. The mean age in years was 54.2 (±11.1) years with 46.7% of the participants being male. On application of the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts, almost 17% of the study subjects had moderate or high risk for a cardiovascular event. Additionally, high salt diet, alcohol use and low HDL levels, were identified as the major CVD risk factors. To conclude, stratification of people on the basis of risk prediction chart is a major step to have a clear idea about the magnitude of the problem. The findings of the current study revealed that there is a high burden of CVD risk in the rural Puducherry.

The Effect of Childhood Supervisory Neglect on Emerging Adults’ Drinking

PubMed Central

Snyder, Susan M.; Merritt, Darcey H.

2016-01-01

This study investigated the effect of childhood supervisory neglect on emerging adults’ drinking. Child supervisory neglect is the most common form of child maltreatment in the United States, but few studies explore supervisory neglect separate from other forms of maltreatment among emerging adults, 18–25 years old. The study sample included (n = 11,117) emerging adults, 18–25 years old who participated in Waves I and III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). We conducted separate analyses for male and female emerging adults, because they have different rates of alcohol consumption and alcohol risk behaviors. Our study used latent class analysis to understand how patterns of alcohol risk behaviors clustered together. For males, we found the following four classes: (1) multiple-risk drinkers, (2) moderate-risk drinkers, (3) binge-drinkers, and (4) low-risk drinkers or abstainers. For females, we found the following three classes: (1) multiple-risk drinkers, (2) moderate-risk drinkers, and (3) low-risk drinkers or abstainers. For both males and females, supervisory neglect increased the odds of membership in the multiple-risk drinkers’ class compared to the low-risk drinkers or abstainers’ class. Single males who did not live with their parents, and who were white had increased odds of being in the multiple-risk drinkers. For females, being more educated, or in a serious romantic relationship increased the odds of membership in the multiple-risk drinkers’ class. Practitioners should ask about histories of supervisory neglect among emerging adults who engage in alcohol risk behaviors. PMID:26771736

Risk Factors for Intimate Partner Violence: A Comparison of Antisocial and Family-Only Perpetrators.

PubMed

Petersson, Joakim; Strand, Susanne; Selenius, Heidi

2016-03-27

Subtyping male perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) based on their generality of violence could facilitate the difficult task of matching perpetrator subtype with efficient risk management strategies. As such, the aim of the present study was to compare antisocial and family-only male perpetrators of interpersonal violence in terms of (a) demographic and legal characteristics, (b) risk factors for violence, and (c) assessed risk and the importance of specific risk factors for violence. A quantitative design was used in this retrospective register study on data obtained from the Swedish police. Risk assessments performed with the Swedish version of the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) and police registers were used. A sample of 657 male alleged IPV perpetrators were classified asantisocial(n= 341) orfamily-only(n= 316) based on their generality of violence. The results showed that the antisocial perpetrators were significantly younger, as well as more psychologically abusive. Antisocial perpetrators also had significantly more present risk factors for IPV, and were assessed with a significantly higher risk for acute and severe or deadly IPV, compared with the family-only perpetrators. The subtypes also evidenced unique risk factors with a significant impact on elevated risk for acute and severe or deadly such violence. Key findings in the present study concerned the subtypes evidencing unique risk factors increasing the risk for acute and severe or deadly IPV. Major implications of this study include the findings of such unique "red flag" risk factors for each subtype. To prevent future IPV, it is vital for the risk assessor to be aware of these red flags when making decisions about risk, as well as risk management strategies. © The Author(s) 2016.

Examining the relationship between specific cognitive processes and falls risk in older adults: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Hsu, Chun Liang; Nagamatsu, Lindsay S.; Davis, Jennifer C.; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

2015-01-01

Purpose Recent evidence suggests that impaired cognition increases seniors’ risk of falling. The purpose of this review was to identify the cognitive domains that are significantly associated with falls or falls risk in older adults. Methods We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed journal articles published from 1948 to present, focusing on studies investigating different domains of cognitive function and their association with falls or falls risk in adults aged 60 years or older. In accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we completed a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, Pubmed, and EMBASE databases to identify studies examining the association between cognitive function and falls or falls risk. With an expert in the field, we developed a quality assessment questionnaire to rate the quality of the studies included in this systematic review. Results Twenty-five studies were included in the review. We categorized studies based on two related but distinct cognitive domains: 1) executive functions, or 2) dual-task ability. Twelve studies reported a significant association between executive functions and falls risk. Thirteen studies reported that dual-task performance is a predictor of falls or falls risk in older adults. Three studies did not report an association between cognition and falls risk. Conclusion Consistent evidence demonstrated that executive functions and dual-task performance were highly associated with falls or falls risk. The results from this review will aid healthcare professionals and researchers in developing innovative screening and treatment strategies for mitigating falls risk by targeting specific cognitive domains. PMID:22638707

Using genetic prediction from known complex disease Loci to guide the design of next-generation sequencing experiments.

PubMed

Jostins, Luke; Levine, Adam P; Barrett, Jeffrey C

2013-01-01

A central focus of complex disease genetics after genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is to identify low frequency and rare risk variants, which may account for an important fraction of disease heritability unexplained by GWAS. A profusion of studies using next-generation sequencing are seeking such risk alleles. We describe how already-known complex trait loci (largely from GWAS) can be used to guide the design of these new studies by selecting cases, controls, or families who are most likely to harbor undiscovered risk alleles. We show that genetic risk prediction can select unrelated cases from large cohorts who are enriched for unknown risk factors, or multiply-affected families that are more likely to harbor high-penetrance risk alleles. We derive the frequency of an undiscovered risk allele in selected cases and controls, and show how this relates to the variance explained by the risk score, the disease prevalence and the population frequency of the risk allele. We also describe a new method for informing the design of sequencing studies using genetic risk prediction in large partially-genotyped families using an extension of the Inside-Outside algorithm for inference on trees. We explore several study design scenarios using both simulated and real data, and show that in many cases genetic risk prediction can provide significant increases in power to detect low-frequency and rare risk alleles. The same approach can also be used to aid discovery of non-genetic risk factors, suggesting possible future utility of genetic risk prediction in conventional epidemiology. Software implementing the methods in this paper is available in the R package Mangrove.

Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study: rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating rheumatoid arthritis risk education to first-degree relatives.

PubMed

Sparks, Jeffrey A; Iversen, Maura D; Miller Kroouze, Rachel; Mahmoud, Taysir G; Triedman, Nellie A; Kalia, Sarah S; Atkinson, Michael L; Lu, Bing; Deane, Kevin D; Costenbader, Karen H; Green, Robert C; Karlson, Elizabeth W

2014-09-01

We present the rationale, design features, and protocol of the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02046005). The PRE-RA Family Study is an NIH-funded prospective, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the willingness to change behaviors in first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without RA after exposure to RA risk educational programs. Consented subjects are randomized to receive education concerning their personalized RA risk based on demographics, RA-associated behaviors, genetics, and biomarkers or to receive standard RA information. Four behavioral factors associated with RA risk were identified from prior studies for inclusion in the risk estimate: cigarette smoking, excess body weight, poor oral health, and low fish intake. Personalized RA risk information is presented through an online tool that collects data on an individual's specific age, gender, family history, and risk-related behaviors; presents genetic and biomarker results; displays relative and absolute risk of RA; and provides personalized feedback and education. The trial outcomes will be changes in willingness to alter behaviors from baseline to 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months in the three intervention groups. The design and the execution of this trial that targets a special population at risk for RA, while incorporating varied risk factors into a single risk tool, offer distinct challenges. We provide the theoretical rationale for the PRE-RA Family Study and highlight particular design features of this trial that utilize personalized risk education as an intervention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ego depletion increases risk-taking.

PubMed

Fischer, Peter; Kastenmüller, Andreas; Asal, Kathrin

2012-01-01

We investigated how the availability of self-control resources affects risk-taking inclinations and behaviors. We proposed that risk-taking often occurs from suboptimal decision processes and heuristic information processing (e.g., when a smoker suppresses or neglects information about the health risks of smoking). Research revealed that depleted self-regulation resources are associated with reduced intellectual performance and reduced abilities to regulate spontaneous and automatic responses (e.g., control aggressive responses in the face of frustration). The present studies transferred these ideas to the area of risk-taking. We propose that risk-taking is increased when individuals find themselves in a state of reduced cognitive self-control resources (ego-depletion). Four studies supported these ideas. In Study 1, ego-depleted participants reported higher levels of sensation seeking than non-depleted participants. In Study 2, ego-depleted participants showed higher levels of risk-tolerance in critical road traffic situations than non-depleted participants. In Study 3, we ruled out two alternative explanations for these results: neither cognitive load nor feelings of anger mediated the effect of ego-depletion on risk-taking. Finally, Study 4 clarified the underlying psychological process: ego-depleted participants feel more cognitively exhausted than non-depleted participants and thus are more willing to take risks. Discussion focuses on the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.

Hypotheses and fundamental study design characteristics for evaluating potential reduced-risk tobacco products. Part I: Heuristic.

PubMed

Murrelle, Lenn; Coggins, Christopher R E; Gennings, Chris; Carchman, Richard A; Carter, Walter H; Davies, Bruce D; Krauss, Marc R; Lee, Peter N; Schleef, Raymond R; Zedler, Barbara K; Heidbreder, Christian

2010-06-01

The risk-reducing effect of a potential reduced-risk tobacco product (PRRP) can be investigated conceptually in a long-term, prospective study of disease risks among cigarette smokers who switch to a PRRP and in appropriate comparison groups. Our objective was to provide guidance for establishing the fundamental design characteristics of a study intended to (1) determine if switching to a PRRP reduces the risk of lung cancer (LC) compared with continued cigarette smoking, and (2) compare, using a non-inferiority approach, the reduction in LC risk among smokers who switched to a PRRP to the reduction in risk among smokers who quit smoking entirely. Using standard statistical methods applied to published data on LC incidence after smoking cessation, we show that the sample size and duration required for a study designed to evaluate the potential for LC risk reduction for an already marketed PRRP, compared with continued smoking, varies depending on the LC risk-reducing effectiveness of the PRRP, from a 5-year study with 8000-30,000 subjects to a 15-year study with <5000 to 10,000 subjects. To assess non-inferiority to quitting, the required sample size tends to be about 10 times greater, again depending on the effectiveness of the PRRP. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between Work-Related Stress and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Sui, Hua; Sun, Nijing; Zhan, Libin; Lu, Xiaoguang; Chen, Tuo; Mao, Xinyong

2016-01-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly around the world. Work-related stress is thought to be a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes; however, this association has not been widely studied, and the findings that have been reported are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to explore the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. A systematic literature search and manual search limited to articles published in English were performed to select the prospective cohort studies evaluated the association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes up to September 2014 from four electronic databases including PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science. A random-effects model was used to estimate the overall risk. No significant association was found between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes based on meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies involving 214,086 participants and 5,511 cases (job demands: relative risk 0.94 [95% confidence interval 0.72-1.23]; decision latitude: relative risk 1.16 [0.85-1.58]; job strain: relative risk 1.12 [.0.95-1.32]). However, an association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes was observed in women (job strain: relative risk 1.22 [1.01-1.46]) (P = 0.04). A sensitivity analysis conducted by excluding one study in each turn yielded similar results. No publication bias was detected with a funnel plot despite the limited number of studies included in the analysis. The results of this meta-analysis did not confirm a direct association between work-related stress and risk for type 2 diabetes. In subgroup analyses we found job strain was a risk factor for type 2 diabetes in women.

Compressed natural gas bus safety: a quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Samuel; Modarres, Mohammad

2005-04-01

This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 x 10(-5) fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 x 10(-6) and 4.0 x 10(-5), respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.

Risk in daily newspaper coverage of red tide blooms in Southwest Florida

PubMed Central

Li, Zongchao; Garrison, Bruce; Ullmann, Steven G.; Kirkpatrick, Barbara; Fleming, Lora E.; Hoagland, Porter

2016-01-01

This study investigated newspaper coverage of Florida red tide blooms in four metropolitan areas of Southwest Florida during a 25-year period, 1987-2012. We focused on how journalists framed red tide stories with respect to environmental risk, health risk, and economic risk. We determined risk to be a key factor in this news coverage, being an aspect of coverage of red tide itself in terms of environmental risk, tourism risk, and public health risk. The study found that red tide news coverage is most often framed as an environmental story. PMID:27087790

CHEK2, MGMT, SULT1E1 and SULT1A1 polymorphisms and endometrial cancer risk.

PubMed

O'Mara, Tracy A; Ferguson, Kaltin; Fahey, Paul; Marquart, Louise; Yang, Hannah P; Lissowska, Jolanta; Chanock, Stephen; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Thompson, Deborah J; Healey, Catherine S; Dunning, Alison M; Easton, Douglas F; Webb, Penelope M; Spurdle, Amanda B

2011-08-01

Several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in candidate genes of DNA repair and hormone pathways have been reported to be associated with endometrial cancer risk. We sought to confirm these associations in two endometrial cancer case-control sample sets and used additional data from an existing genome-wide association study to prioritize an additional SNP for further study. Five SNPs from the CHEK2, MGMT, SULT1E1 and SULT1A1 genes, genotyped in a total of 1597 cases and 1507 controls from two case-control studies, the Australian National Endometrial Cancer Study and the Polish Endometrial Cancer Study, were assessed for association with endometrial cancer risk using logistic regression analysis. Imputed data was drawn for CHEK2 rs8135424 for 666 cases from the Study of Epidemiology and Risk factors in Cancer Heredity study and 5190 controls from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium. We observed no association between SNPs in the MGMT, SULT1E1 and SULT1A1 genes and endometrial cancer risk. The A allele of the rs8135424 CHEK2 SNP was associated with decreased risk of endometrial cancer (adjusted per-allele OR 0.83; 95%CI 0.70-0.98; p = .03) however this finding was opposite to that previously published. Imputed data for CHEK2 rs8135424 supported the direction of effect reported in this study (OR 0.85; 95% CI 0.65-1.10). Previously reported endometrial cancer risk associations with SNPs from in genes involved in estrogen metabolism and DNA repair were not replicated in our larger study population. This study highlights the need for replication of candidate gene SNP studies using large sample groups, to confirm risk associations and better prioritize downstream studies to assess the causal relationship between genetic variants and cancer risk. Our findings suggest that the CHEK2 SNP rs8135424 be prioritized for further study as a genetic factor associated with risk of endometrial cancer.

How effective are risk assessments/measures for predicting future aggressive behaviour in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID): A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lofthouse, Rachael; Golding, Laura; Totsika, Vasiliki; Hastings, Richard; Lindsay, William

2017-12-01

Risk assessments assist professionals in the identification and management of risk of aggression. The present study aimed to systematically review evidence on the efficacy of assessments for managing the risk of physical aggression in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). A literature search was conducted using the databases PsycINFO, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Electronic and hand searches identified 14 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Standardised mean difference effect sizes Area Under Curve (AUC) were calculated for studies. Random effects subgroup analysis was used to compare different types of risk measures (Actuarial, Structured Professional Judgment and dynamic), and prospective vs. catch-up longitudinal study designs. Overall, evidence of predictive validity was found for risk measures with ID populations: (AUC)=0.724, 95% CI [0.681, 0.768]. There was no variation in the performance of different types of risk measures, or different study design. Risk assessment measures predict the likelihood of aggression in ID population and are comparable to those in mainstream populations. Further meta-analysis is necessary when risk measures are more established in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

PubMed

Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

2014-05-29

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.

Effectiveness of personalized and interactive health risk calculators: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Harle, Christopher A; Downs, Julie S; Padman, Rema

2012-01-01

Risk calculators are popular websites that provide individualized disease risk assessments to the public. Little is known about their effect on risk perceptions and health behavior. This study sought to test whether risk calculator features-namely, personalized estimates of one's disease risk and feedback about the effects of risk-mitigating behaviors-improve risk perceptions and motivate healthy behavior. A web-based experimental study using simple randomization was conducted to compare the effects of 3 prediabetes risk communication websites. Setting The study was conducted in the context of ongoing health promotion activities sponsored by a university's human resources office. Patients Participants were adult university employees. Intervention The control website presented nonindividualized risk information. The personalized noninteractive website presented individualized risk calculations. The personalized interactive website presented individualized risk calculations and feedback about the effects of hypothetical risk-mitigating behaviors. Measurements Pre- and postintervention risk perceptions were measured in absolute and relative terms. Health behavior was measured by assessing participant interest in follow-up preventive health services. On average, risk perceptions decreased by 2%. There was no general effect of personalization or interactivity in aligning subjective risk perceptions with objective risk calculations or in increasing healthy behaviors. However, participants who previously overestimated their risk reduced their perceptions by 16%. This was a significantly larger change than the 2% increase by participants who underestimated their risk. Limitations Results may not generalize to different populations, different diseases, or longer-term outcomes. Compared to nonpersonalized information, individualized risk calculators had little positive effect on prediabetes risk perception accuracy or health behavior. Risk perception accuracy was improved in people who receive relatively "good news" about risk rather than "bad news."

Dietary potassium intake and risk of stroke: a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Larsson, Susanna C; Orsini, Nicola; Wolk, Alicja

2011-10-01

Potassium intake has been inconsistently associated with risk of stroke. Our aim was to conduct a meta-analysis of prospective studies to assess the relation between potassium intake and stroke risk. Pertinent studies were identified by a search of PubMed from January 1966 through March 2011 and by reviewing the reference lists of retrieved articles. We included prospective studies that reported relative risks with 95% CIs of stroke for ≥3 categories of potassium intake or for potassium intake analyzed as a continuous variable. Study-specific results were pooled using a random-effects model. Ten independent prospective studies, with a total of 8695 stroke cases and 268 276 participants, were included in the meta-analysis. We observed a statistically significant inverse association between potassium intake and risk of stroke. For every 1000-mg/day increase in potassium intake, the risk of stroke decreased by 11% (pooled relative risk, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.97). In the 5 studies that reported results for stroke subtypes, the pooled relative risks were 0.89 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.97) for ischemic stroke, 0.95 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.09) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 1.08 (95% CI, 0.92 to 1.27) for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Dietary potassium intake is inversely associated with risk of stroke, in particular ischemic stroke.

Racial differences in risks for first cardiovascular events and noncardiovascular death: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, the Cardiovascular Health Study, and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Feinstein, Matthew; Ning, Hongyan; Kang, Joseph; Bertoni, Alain; Carnethon, Mercedes; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

2012-07-03

No studies have compared first cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and non-CVD death between races in a competing risks framework, which examines risks for numerous events simultaneously. We used competing Cox models to estimate hazards for first CVD events and non-CVD death within and between races in 3 multicenter, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-sponsored cohorts. Of 14 569 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants aged 45 to 64 years with mean follow-up of 10.5 years, 11.6% had CVD and 5.0% had non-CVD death as first events; among 4237 Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) study participants aged 65 to 84 years and followed for 8.5 years, these figures were 43.2% and 15.7%, respectively. Middle-aged blacks were significantly more likely than whites to experience any CVD as a first event; this disparity disappeared by older adulthood and after adjustment for CVD risk factors. The pattern of results was similar for Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants. Traditional Cox and competing risks models yielded different results for coronary heart disease risk. Black men appeared somewhat more likely than white men to experience coronary heart disease with use of a standard Cox model (hazard ratio 1.06; 95% CI 0.90, 1.26), whereas they appeared less likely than white men to have a first coronary heart disease event with use of a competing risks model (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60, 1.00). CVD affects blacks at an earlier age than whites; this may be attributable in part to elevated CVD risk factor levels among blacks. Racial disparities in first CVD incidence disappear by older adulthood. Competing risks analyses may yield somewhat different results than traditional Cox models and provide a complementary approach to examining risks for first CVD events.

Green tea and the risk of gastric cancer: Epidemiological evidence

PubMed Central

Hou, I-Chun; Amarnani, Saral; Chong, Mok T; Bishayee, Anupam

2013-01-01

Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the leading causes of cancer death in the world. Numerous efforts are being made to find chemoprotective agents able to reduce its risk. Amongst these, green tea has been reported to have a protective effect against stomach cancer. This article aims to critically evaluate all epidemiological studies reporting an association between green tea consumption and GC risk. MEDLINE, EBSCOHOST and Google Scholar were used to search for clinical trials of green tea and its correlation to stomach cancer. Studies include cohort and case-control studies. Outcome of interests are inverse association, no association, and positive association. Seventeen epidemiologic studies were reviewed. Eleven studies were conducted in Japan, five in China, and one with Japanese descendent in Hawaii. Ten case-control studies and seven cohort studies were included. The relative risks or odds ratio of GC for the highest level of green tea consumption was compared. Seven studies suggested no association, eight an inverse association, and one a positive association. One study had shown a significantly lowered GC risk when tea was served warm to cold. Another study also showed a significantly risk with lukewarm tea. All studies that analyzed men and women separately have suggested a reduced risk in women than in men, albeit no significant difference. This review demonstrates that there is insufficient information to support green tea consumption reduces the risk of GC. More studies on the subject matter are warranted. PMID:23840110

Ovarian, Fallopian Tube, and Primary Peritoneal Cancer Screening

MedlinePlus

... decrease the risk of dying from cancer. Scientists study screening tests to find those with the fewest risks and ... of cancer, including ovarian cancer, or other conditions. Studies have also shown that ... Screening tests have risks. The risks of ovarian, fallopian tube, ...

Change in risk status during labor in a large Norwegian obstetric department: a prospective study.

PubMed

Lippert, Tonje; Nesje, Ellen; Koss, Karen Sofie; Oian, Pål

2013-06-01

This study aimed to observe risk status on admission to hospital and change in risk status during labor. A prospective observational study allocating all women into low-risk and high-risk groups on admittance to hospital and during labor based on prespecified risk criteria. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology in a district hospital. All 6406 deliveries from 2 May 2004 to 30 September 2006. A special form was filled out for all women admitted to the department in labor classifying them as either low or high risk. A change in risk status during labor was also recorded. Risk status (low and high risk) on admittance to hospital and change in risk status during first stage of labor. On admittance, 67% of women with an intended vaginal delivery were low risk. During the first stage of labor, 41% of the low-risk women changed risk status. Use of epidural anesthesia gave rise to 73% of the risk changes during the first stage of labor and use of oxytocin caused 12%. Two-thirds of the women were low risk before labor, and 39% of these remained low-risk at the end of the first stage of labor. The main reason for a change of risk status in the obstetric department was the use of epidural anesthesia. © 2013 The Authors Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica © 2013 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Validation of the pooled cohort risk score in an Asian population - a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2014-11-20

The Pooled Cohort Risk Equation was introduced by the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) 2013 in their Blood Cholesterol Guideline to estimate the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. However, absence of Asian ethnicity in the contemporary cohorts and limited studies to examine the use of the risk score limit the applicability of the equation in an Asian population. This study examines the validity of the pooled cohort risk score in a primary care setting and compares the cardiovascular risk using both the pooled cohort risk score and the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk score. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of randomly selected patients aged 40-79 years. Baseline demographic data, co-morbidities and cardiovascular (CV) risk parameters were captured from patient records in 1998. Pooled cohort risk score and Framingham General CVD risk score for each patient were computed. All ASCVD events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease (CHD) death, fatal and nonfatal stroke) occurring from 1998-2007 were recorded. A total of 922 patients were studied. In 1998, mean age was 57.5 ± 8.8 years with 66.7% female. There were 47% diabetic patients and 59.9% patients receiving anti-hypertensive treatment. More than 98% of patients with pooled cohort risk score ≥7.5% had FRS >10%. A total of 45 CVD events occurred, 22 (7.2%) in males and 23 (3.7%) in females. The median pooled cohort risk score for the population was 10.1 (IQR 4.7-20.6) while the actual ASCVD events that occurred was 4.9% (45/922). Our study showed moderate discrimination with AUC of 0.63. There was good calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2 = 12.6, P = 0.12. The pooled cohort risk score appears to overestimate CV risk but this apparent over-prediction could be a result of treatment. In the absence of a validated score in an untreated population, the pooled cohort risk score appears to be appropriate for use in a primary care setting.

Cardiovascular risk assessment in type 2 diabetes mellitus: comparison of the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts versus UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine.

PubMed

Herath, Herath M Meththananda; Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Umesha, Dilini

2015-01-01

Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, and assessment of their cardiac risk is important for preventive strategies. The Ministry of Health of Sri Lanka has recommended World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for cardiac risk assessment in individuals with T2DM. However, the most suitable cardiac risk assessment tool for Sri Lankans with T2DM has not been studied. This study was designed to evaluate the performance of two cardiac risk assessments tools; WHO/ISH charts and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Cardiac risk assessments were done in 2,432 patients with T2DM attending a diabetes clinic in Southern Sri Lanka using the two risk assessment tools. Validity of two assessment tools was further assessed by their ability to recognize individuals with raised low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and raised diastolic blood pressure in a cohort of newly diagnosed T2DM patients (n=332). WHO/ISH charts identified 78.4% of subjects as low cardiac risk whereas the UKPDS risk engine categorized 52.3% as low cardiac risk (P<0.001). In the risk categories of 10%-<20%, the UKPDS risk engine identified higher proportions of patients (28%) compared to WHO/ISH charts (7%). Approximately 6% of subjects were classified as low cardiac risk (<10%) by WHO/ISH when UKPDS recognized them as cardiac risk of >20%. Agreement between the two tools was poor (κ value =0.144, P<0.01). Approximately 82% of individuals categorized as low cardiac risk by WHO/ISH had higher LDL cholesterol than the therapeutic target of 100 mg/dL. There is a significant discrepancy between the two assessment tools with WHO/ISH risk chart recognizing higher proportions of patients having low cardiac risk than the UKPDS risk engine. Risk assessment by both assessment tools demonstrated poor sensitivity in identifying those with treatable levels of LDL cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure.

Integrating Professional and Folk Models of HIV Risk: YMSM’s Perceptions of High-Risk Sex

PubMed Central

Kubicek, Katrina; Carpineto, Julie; McDavitt, Bryce; Weiss, George; Iverson, Ellen F.; Au, Chi-Wai; Kerrone, Dustin; Martinez, Miguel; Kipke, Michele D.

2009-01-01

Risks associated with HIV are well documented in research literature. While a great deal has been written about high-risk sex, little research has been conducted to examine how young men who have sex with men (YMSM) perceive and define high-risk sexual behavior. In this study, we compare the “professional’ and “folk” models of HIV-risk based on YMSM’s understanding of high-risk sex and where and how they gathered their understanding of HIV-risk behaviors. The findings reported here emerged from the quantitative and qualitative interviews from the Healthy Young Men’s Study (HYM), a longitudinal study examining risk and protective factors for substance use and sexual risk among an ethnically diverse sample of YMSM. Findings are discussed in relation to framing how service providers and others can increase YMSM’s knowledge of sexual behavior and help them build solid foundations of sexual health education to protect them from STI and HIV infection. PMID:18558819

Polygenic Risk, Rapid Childhood Growth, and the Development of Obesity

PubMed Central

Belsky, Daniel W.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Houts, Renate; Bennett, Gary G.; Biddle, Andrea K.; Blumenthal, James A.; Evans, James P.; Harrington, HonaLee; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

2012-01-01

Objective To test how genomic loci identified in genome-wide association studies influence the development of obesity. Design A 38-year prospective longitudinal study of a representative birth cohort. Setting The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study, Dunedin, New Zealand. Participants One thousand thirty-seven male and female study members. Main Exposures We assessed genetic risk with a multilocus genetic risk score. The genetic risk score was composed of single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies of obesity-related phenotypes. We assessed family history from parent body mass index data collected when study members were 11 years of age. Main Outcome Measures Body mass index growth curves, developmental phenotypes of obesity, and adult obesity outcomes were defined from anthropometric assessments at birth and at 12 subsequent in-person interviews through 38 years of age. Results Individuals with higher genetic risk scores were more likely to be chronically obese in adulthood. Genetic risk first manifested as rapid growth during early childhood. Genetic risk was unrelated to birth weight. After birth, children at higher genetic risk gained weight more rapidly and reached adiposity rebound earlier and at a higher body mass index. In turn, these developmental phenotypes predicted adult obesity, mediating about half the genetic effect on adult obesity risk. Genetic associations with growth and obesity risk were independent of family history, indicating that the genetic risk score could provide novel information to clinicians. Conclusions Genetic variation linked with obesity risk operates, in part, through accelerating growth in the early childhood years after birth. Etiological research and prevention strategies should target early childhood to address the obesity epidemic. PMID:22665028

Parity, infertility, oral contraceptives, and hormone replacement therapy and the risk of ovarian serous borderline tumors: A nationwide case-control study.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Emma L Kaderly; Hannibal, Charlotte Gerd; Dehlendorff, Christian; Baandrup, Louise; Junge, Jette; Vang, Russell; Kurman, Robert J; Kjaer, Susanne K

2017-03-01

Few studies have examined the risk of an ovarian serous borderline tumor (SBT) associated with parity, infertility, oral contraceptives (OCs), or hormone replacement therapy (HRT), which was the study aim. This nationwide case-control study included all women with an SBT diagnosis in Denmark, 1978-2002. SBTs were confirmed by centralized expert pathology review. For each case, 15 age-matched female controls were randomly selected using risk-set sampling. Cases and controls with previous cancer (except for non-melanoma skin cancer) and controls with bilateral oophorectomy or salpingo-oophorectomy were excluded. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We found a strongly decreased risk of SBTs among parous women which decreased with increasing number of children (p<0.01). Older age at first birth also decreased the SBT risk (p=0.03). An increased SBT risk was associated with infertility (OR=3.31; 95% CI: 2.44-4.49), which was present both among parous and nulliparous women. HRT use increased the SBT risk (OR=1.32; 95% CI: 1.02-1.72), whereas OC use decreased the risk (OR=0.40; 95% CI: 0.26-0.62). Our nationwide study with expert histopathologic review of all SBTs showed that parity, infertility, use of HRT, and use of OCs, respectively, were strongly associated with the risk of SBTs. This is the first study to report a strong and significantly decreased SBT risk associated with OC use and a significantly increased risk with infertility, and HRT use. This supports that SBTs and serous ovarian cancer share similar risk factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validated context-dependent associations of coronary heart disease risk with genotype variation in the chromosome 9p21 region: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

PubMed Central

Lusk, Christine M.; Dyson, Greg; Clark, Andrew G.; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Boerwinkle, Eric

2014-01-01

Markers of the chromosome 9p21 region are regarded as the strongest and most reliably significant genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals for Coronary heart disease (CHD) risk; this was recently confirmed by the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium meta-analysis. However, while these associations are significant at the population level, they may not be clinically relevant predictors of risk for all individuals. We describe here the results of a study designed to address the question: What is the contribution of context defined by traditional risk factors in determining the utility of DNA sequence variations marking the 9p21 region for explaining variation in CHD risk? We analyzed a sample of 7,589 (3,869 females and 3,720 males) European American participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. We confirmed CHD-SNP genotype associations for two 9p21 region marker SNPs previously identified by the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium study, of which ARIC was a part. We then tested each marker SNP genotype effect on prediction of CHD within sub-groups of the ARIC sample defined by traditional CHD risk factors by applying a novel multi-model strategy, PRIM. We observed that the effects of SNP genotypes in the 9p21 region were strongest in a subgroup of hypertensives. We subsequently validated the effect of the region in an independent sample from the Copenhagen City Heart Study. Our study suggests that marker SNPs identified as predictors of CHD risk in large population based GWAS may have their greatest utility in explaining risk of disease in particular sub-groups characterized by biological and environmental effects measured by the traditional CHD risk factors. PMID:24889828

The Relationship between Market and Accounting Determined Risk Measures: Reviewing and Updating the Beaver, Kettler, Scholes (1970) Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarvela, Michael; Kozyra, James; Potter, Carla

2009-01-01

The association between market-determined risk measures and accounting-determined risk measures was originally explored in the 1970s by Beaver, Kettler, and Scholes (BKS). The results of the BKS (1970) study suggest that accounting information is usefulness in assessing firm specific risk. Since BKS, there have been few studies conducted to…

Risk Management and Disaster Recovery in Public Libraries in South Australia: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velasquez, Diane L.; Evans, Nina; Kaeding, Joanne

2016-01-01

Introduction: This paper reports the findings of a study of risk management in public libraries. The focus of the research was to determine whether the libraries had a risk management and disaster plan for major disasters. Method: A qualitative study was done to investigate risk management and disaster recovery in public libraries in South…

Sensation Seeking and Risk-Taking Propensity as Mediators in the Relationship between Childhood Abuse and HIV-Related Risk Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bornovalova, Marina A.; Gwadz, Marya A.; Kahler, Christopher; Aklin, W. M.; Lejuez, C. W.

2008-01-01

Objectives: Although a wealth of literature suggests that childhood physical, emotional, and sexual abuse are related to later-life HIV-related risk behaviors, few studies have explored disinhibition (e.g., impulsivity, risk-taking propensity, and sensation-seeking) as a risk factor in this relationship. Method: This cross-sectional study examined…

Racial Differences in Risk-Taking Propensity on the Youth Version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART-Y)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collado, Anahi; Risco, Cristina M.; Banducci, Anne N.; Chen, Kevin W.; MacPherson, Laura; Lejuez, Carl W.

2017-01-01

Research indicates that White adolescents tend to engage in greater levels of risk behavior relative to Black adolescents. To better understand these differences, the current study examined real-time changes in risk-taking propensity (RTP). The study utilized the Balloon Analogue Risk Task-Youth Version (BART-Y), a well-validated real-time,…

The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles. Executive Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herrera, Carla; DuBois, David L.; Grossman, Jean Baldwin

2013-01-01

"The Role of Risk: Mentoring Experiences and Outcomes for Youth with Varying Risk Profiles" presents findings from the first large-scale study to examine how the levels and types of risk youth face may influence their relationships with program-assigned mentors and the benefits they derive from these relationships. The study looked…

Risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors with or without concurrent nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory use: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Anglin, Rebecca; Yuan, Yuhong; Moayyedi, Paul; Tse, Frances; Armstrong, David; Leontiadis, Grigorios I

2014-06-01

There is emerging concern that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) may be associated with an increased risk of upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, and that this risk may be further increased by concurrent use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) medications. Previous reviews of a relatively small number of studies have reported a substantial risk of upper GI bleeding with SSRIs; however, more recent studies have produced variable results. The objective of this study was to obtain a more precise estimate of the risk of upper GI bleeding with SSRIs, with or without concurrent NSAID use. MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, the Cochrane central register of controlled trials (through April 2013), and US and European conference proceedings were searched. Controlled trials, cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies that reported the incidence of upper GI bleeding in adults on SSRIs with or without concurrent NSAID use, compared with placebo or no treatment were included. Data were extracted independently by two authors. Dichotomous data were pooled to obtain odds ratio (OR) of the risk of upper GI bleeding with SSRIs +/- NSAID, with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The main outcome and measure of the study was the risk of upper GI bleeding with SSRIs compared with placebo or no treatment. Fifteen case-control studies (including 393,268 participants) and four cohort studies were included in the analysis. There was an increased risk of upper GI bleeding with SSRI medications in the case-control studies (OR=1.66, 95% CI=1.44,1.92) and cohort studies (OR=1.68, 95% CI=1.13,2.50). The number needed to harm for upper GI bleeding with SSRI treatment in a low-risk population was 3,177, and in a high-risk population it was 881. The risk of upper GI bleeding was further increased with the use of both SSRI and NSAID medications (OR=4.25, 95% CI=2.82,6.42). SSRI medications are associated with a modest increase in the risk of upper GI bleeding, which is lower than has previously been estimated. This risk is significantly elevated when SSRI medications are used in combination with NSAIDs, and physicians prescribing these medications together should exercise caution and discuss this risk with patients.

Pre- and posttest evaluation of a breast cancer risk assessment program for nurse practitioners.

PubMed

Edwards, Quannetta T; Seibert, Diane

2010-07-01

Numerous studies have shown that healthcare providers, including nurse practitioners (NPs) fail to provide breast cancer risk assessment (BrCRA) in primary care settings. A potential barrier to the use of BrCRA is insufficient knowledge or training of risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to analyze the outcome of a BrCRA program developed to enhance NPs' knowledge of risk assessment and use of empiric risk assessment models. Thirty-five NPs participated in a before-after (pretest-posttest design) study evaluating the effectiveness of a BrCRA education program conducted at a national NP conference. Demographics, pre/post knowledge, and course satisfaction measures were all examined as a part of this pilot study. Continuing education through the implementation of a BrCRA program significantly increased NPs knowledge in assessing breast cancer risk and the use of empiric risk assessment models. Many healthcare providers, including NPs, are inadequately prepared to assess a woman's risk for breast cancer. Understanding breast cancer risk assessment is essential if NPs are to provide appropriate counseling, management, and referral strategies needed to reduce a woman's risk for developing the disease. Continuing education provides one means to enhance NP's knowledge of BrCRA.

A modified fall risk assessment tool that is specific to physical function predicts falls in community-dwelling elderly people.

PubMed

Hirase, Tatsuya; Inokuchi, Shigeru; Matsusaka, Nobuou; Nakahara, Kazumi; Okita, Minoru

2014-01-01

Developing a practical fall risk assessment tool to predict the occurrence of falls in the primary care setting is important because investigators have reported deterioration of physical function associated with falls. Researchers have used many performance tests to predict the occurrence of falls. These performance tests predict falls and also assess physical function and determine exercise interventions. However, the need for such specialists as physical therapists to accurately conduct these tests limits their use in the primary care setting. Questionnaires for fall prediction offer an easy way to identify high-risk fallers without requiring specialists. Using an existing fall assessment questionnaire, this study aimed to identify items specific to physical function and determine whether those items were able to predict falls and estimate physical function of high-risk fallers. The analysis consisted of both retrospective and prospective studies and used 2 different samples (retrospective, n = 1871; prospective, n = 292). The retrospective study and 3-month prospective study comprised community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years or older and older adults using community day centers. The number of falls, risk factors for falls (15 risk factors on the questionnaire), and physical function determined by chair standing test (CST) and Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) were assessed. The retrospective study selected fall risk factors related to physical function. The prospective study investigated whether the number of selected risk factors could predict falls. The predictive power was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Seven of the 15 risk factors were related to physical function. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors was 0.82 (P = .00). The best cutoff point was 4 risk factors, with sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 68%, respectively. The mean values for the CST and TUGT at the best cutoff point were 12.9 and 12.5 seconds, respectively. In the retrospective study, the values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point from the prospective study were 13.2 and 11.4 seconds, respectively. This study confirms that a screening tool comprising 7 fall risk factors can be used to predict falls. The values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point for the selected 7 risk factors determined in our prospective study were similar to the cutoff points for the CST and TUGT in previous studies for fall prediction. We propose that the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors may be identified as the estimated value for physical function. These findings may contribute to earlier identification of high-risk fallers and intervention for fall prevention.

Applying GIS to develop a model for forest fire risk: A case study in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

PubMed

Eugenio, Fernando Coelho; dos Santos, Alexandre Rosa; Fiedler, Nilton Cesar; Ribeiro, Guido Assunção; da Silva, Aderbal Gomes; dos Santos, Áureo Banhos; Paneto, Greiciane Gaburro; Schettino, Vitor Roberto

2016-05-15

A forest fire risk map is a basic element for planning and protecting forested areas. The main goal of this study was to develop a statistical model for preparing a forest fire risk map using GIS. Such model is based on assigning weights to nine variables divided into two classes: physical factors of the site (terrain slope, land-use/occupation, proximity to roads, terrain orientation, and altitude) and climatic factors (precipitation, temperature, water deficit, and evapotranspiration). In regions where the climate is different from the conditions of this study, the model will require an adjustment of the variables weights according to the local climate. The study area, Espírito Santo State, exhibited approximately 3.81% low risk, 21.18% moderate risk, 30.10% high risk, 41.50% very high risk, and 3.40% extreme risk of forest fire. The areas classified as high risk, very high and extreme, contemplated a total of 78.92% of heat spots. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A case-control study to assess the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk.

PubMed

Assi, Valentina; Massat, Nathalie J; Thomas, Susan; MacKay, James; Warwick, Jane; Kataoka, Masako; Warsi, Iqbal; Brentnall, Adam; Warren, Ruth; Duffy, Stephen W

2015-05-15

Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, but its potential application in risk management is not clear, partly due to uncertainties about its interaction with other breast cancer risk factors. We aimed to quantify the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer (average lifetime risk of 23%), in particular in premenopausal women, and to investigate its relationship with other breast cancer risk factors in this population. We present the results from a case-control study nested with the FH01 cohort study of 6,710 women mostly aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer. One hundred and three cases of breast cancer were age-matched to one or two controls. Density was measured by semiautomated interactive thresholding. Absolute density, but not percent density, was a significant risk factor for breast cancer in this population after adjusting for area of nondense tissue (OR per 10 cm(2) = 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p = 0.04). The effect was stronger in premenopausal women, who made up the majority of the study population. Absolute density remained a significant predictor of breast cancer risk after adjusting for age at menarche, age at first live birth, parity, past or present hormone replacement therapy, and the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate of breast cancer. Absolute density can improve breast cancer risk stratification and delineation of high-risk groups alongside the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate. © 2014 UICC.

How are lung cancer risk perceptions and cigarette smoking related?-testing an accuracy hypothesis.

PubMed

Chen, Lei-Shih; Kaphingst, Kimberly A; Tseng, Tung-Sung; Zhao, Shixi

2016-10-01

Subjective risk perception is an important theoretical construct in the field of cancer prevention and control. Although the relationship between subjective risk perception and health behaviors has been widely studied in many health contexts, the causalities and associations between the risk perception of developing lung cancer and cigarette smoking have been inconsistently reported among studies. Such inconsistency may be from discrepancies between study designs (cross-sectional versus longitudinal designs) and the three hypotheses (i.e., the behavior motivation hypothesis, the risk reappraisals hypothesis, and the accuracy hypothesis) testing different underlying associations between risk perception and cigarette-smoking behaviors. To clarify this issue, as an initial step, we examined the association between absolute and relative risk perceptions of developing lung cancer and cigarette-smoking behaviors among a large, national representative sample of 1,680 U.S. adults by testing an accuracy hypothesis (i.e., people who smoke accurately perceived a higher risk of developing lung cancer). Data from the U.S. Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) were analyzed using logistic regression and multivariate linear regression to examine the associations between risk perception and cigarette-smoking behaviors among 1,680 U.S. adults. Findings from this cross-sectional survey suggest that absolute and relative risk perceptions were positively and significantly correlated with having smoked >100 cigarettes during lifetime and the frequency of cigarette smoking. Only absolute risk perception was significantly associated with the number of cigarettes smoked per day among current smokers. Because both absolute and relative risk perceptions are positively related to most cigarette-smoking behaviors, this study supports the accuracy hypothesis. Moreover, absolute risk perception might be a more sensitive measurement than relative risk perception for perceived lung cancer risk. Longitudinal research is needed in the future to investigate other types of risk perception-risk behavior hypotheses-the behavior motivation and the risk reappraisals hypotheses-among nationally representative samples to further examine the causations between risk perception of obtaining lung cancer and smoking behaviors.

Calculated and perceived cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic subjects submitted to a routine medical evaluation: The perception gap.

PubMed

Katz, Marcelo; Laurinavicius, Antonio G; Franco, Fabio G M; Conceicao, Raquel D; Carvalho, Jose A M; Pesaro, Antonio E P; Wajngarten, Mauricio; Santos, Raul D

2015-08-01

Poor adherence to medical treatment represents a major health problem. A subject's misperception of his own cardiovascular risk has been indicated as a key driver for low compliance with preventive measures. This study analysed the relationship between objectively calculated short- and long-term cardiovascular risk and its subjective perception. Cross-sectional study in asymptomatic Brazilian subjects. Individuals (N = 6544, mean age 49.1 ± 7 years, 22.2% female) who underwent a routine mandatory health evaluation were studied. A questionnaire in which each individual rated his own cardiovascular risk as low, intermediate or high according to his own perception was used. The 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular risk were calculated respectively using the Framingham risk (FRS) and Lifetime risk (LRS) scores. Individuals were classified as hypo-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk lower than estimated risk), normo-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk coincident with estimated risk) and hyper-perceivers (i.e. perceived risk higher than estimated risk). Cardiovascular risk, using the FRS, was low in 77.9% (N = 5071), intermediate in 14.4% (N = 939) and high in 7.7% (N = 499) of subjects. Cardiovascular risk, using the LRS, was low in 7.6% (N = 492), intermediate in 43.1% (N = 2787) and high in 49.3% (N = 3184) of the study population. The prevalence of normo-perceivers was 57.6% using the FRS and only 20.6% using the LRS. Using the LRS, 72.3% of the intermediate and 91.2% of the high-risk subjects were hypo-perceivers. In a large sample of asymptomatic individuals, there was a gap between calculated and perceived cardiovascular risk. Using a long-term risk score, most of the intermediate- and high-risk subjects were hypo-perceivers. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Meta-analysis of paternal age and schizophrenia risk in male versus female offspring.

PubMed

Miller, Brian; Messias, Erick; Miettunen, Jouko; Alaräisänen, Antti; Järvelin, Marjo-Riita; Koponen, Hannu; Räsänen, Pirkko; Isohanni, Matti; Kirkpatrick, Brian

2011-09-01

Advanced paternal age (APA) is a reported risk factor for schizophrenia in the offspring. We performed a meta-analysis of this association, considering the effect of gender and study design. We identified articles by searching Pub Med, PsychInfo, ISI, and EMBASE, and the reference lists of identified studies. Previously unpublished data from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort (NFBC 1966) study were also included. There were 6 cohort studies and 6 case-control studies that met the inclusion criteria. In both study designs, there was a significant increase in risk of schizophrenia in the offspring of older fathers (≥30) compared to a reference paternal age of 25-29, with no gender differences. The relative risk (RR) in the oldest fathers (≥50) was 1.66 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.46-1.89, P < 0.01]. A significant increase in risk was also found for younger fathers (<25) in males (RR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02-1.14, P = 0.01) but not females (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.97-1.14, P = 0.28). The population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) was 10% for paternal age ≥30 and 5% for paternal age <25. Both APA (≥30) and younger paternal age (<25) increase the risk of schizophrenia; younger paternal age may be associated with an increased risk in males but not females. This risk factor increases the risk of schizophrenia as much as any single candidate gene of risk. The mechanism of these associations is not known and may differ for older and younger fathers.

Assessment on the pedestrian risk during floods based on numerical simulation - A case study in Jinan City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, T.; Xu, Z.; Hong, S.

2017-12-01

Flood disasters frequently attack the urban area in Jinan City during past years, and the city is faced with severe road flooding which greatly threaten pedestrians' safety. Therefore, it is of great significance to investigate the pedestrian risk during floods under specific topographic condition. In this study, a model coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic processes is developed in the study area to simulate the flood routing process on the road for the "7.18" rainstorm and validated with post-disaster damage survey information. The risk of pedestrian is estimated with a flood risk assessment model. The result shows that the coupled model performs well in the rainstorm flood process. On the basis of the simulation result, the areas with extreme risk, medium risk, and mild risk are identified, respectively. Regions with high risk are generally located near the mountain front area with steep slopes. This study will provide scientific support for the flood control and disaster reduction in Jinan City.

Dose-Response Relationship between Dietary Magnesium Intake and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Fang, Xin; Han, Hedong; Li, Mei; Liang, Chun; Fan, Zhongjie; Aaseth, Jan; He, Jia; Montgomery, Scott; Cao, Yang

2016-11-19

The epidemiological evidence for a dose-response relationship between magnesium intake and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is sparse. The aim of the study was to summarize the evidence for the association of dietary magnesium intake with risk of T2D and evaluate the dose-response relationship. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies that reported dietary magnesium intake and risk of incident T2D. We identified relevant studies by searching major scientific literature databases and grey literature resources from their inception to February 2016. We included cohort studies that provided risk ratios, i.e., relative risks (RRs), odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs), for T2D. Linear dose-response relationships were assessed using random-effects meta-regression. Potential nonlinear associations were evaluated using restricted cubic splines. A total of 25 studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies comprised 637,922 individuals including 26,828 with a T2D diagnosis. Compared with the lowest magnesium consumption group in the population, the risk of T2D was reduced by 17% across all the studies; 19% in women and 16% in men. A statistically significant linear dose-response relationship was found between incremental magnesium intake and T2D risk. After adjusting for age and body mass index, the risk of T2D incidence was reduced by 8%-13% for per 100 mg/day increment in dietary magnesium intake. There was no evidence to support a nonlinear dose-response relationship between dietary magnesium intake and T2D risk. The combined data supports a role for magnesium in reducing risk of T2D, with a statistically significant linear dose-response pattern within the reference dose range of dietary intake among Asian and US populations. The evidence from Europe and black people is limited and more prospective studies are needed for the two subgroups.

VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

PubMed

Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

2005-04-18

BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be worthwhile testing in medical practice in order to confirm or refute the positive findings of this study. Our cohort study will be continued to include more VTE cases and to increase predictive value of the model.

Associations between Yogurt Consumption and Weight Gain and Risk of Obesity and Metabolic Syndrome: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Sayon-Orea, Carmen; Martínez-González, Miguel A; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira

2017-01-01

The role of yogurt consumption in the risk of developing overweight, obesity, or metabolic syndrome has been the subject of epidemiologic studies over the last 10 y. A comprehensive literature search on MEDLINE and ISI Web of Knowledge from 1966 through June 2016 was conducted to examine the relation between yogurt consumption and weight gain, as well as the risk of overweight, obesity, or metabolic syndrome, in prospective cohort studies. Ten articles met all the inclusion criteria and were included in our systematic review. Of the 10 cohort studies, 3 analyzed the relation between yogurt consumption and the risk of overweight or obesity, 8 analyzed changes in waist circumference or weight changes, 3 studied the association with the risk of developing metabolic syndrome, and 1 studied the probability of abdominal obesity reversion. Although an inverse association between yogurt consumption and the risk of developing overweight or obesity was not fully consistent or always statistically significant, all studies but one showed in their point estimates inverse associations between yogurt consumption and changes in waist circumference, changes in weight, risk of overweight or obesity, and risk of metabolic syndrome during follow-up, although not all estimates were statistically significant (2 studies). Prospective cohort studies consistently suggested that yogurt consumption may contribute to a reduction in adiposity indexes and the risk of metabolic syndrome. Therefore, there is a need for more prospective studies and high-quality randomized clinical trials to confirm this apparent inverse association. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Comparison of ergonomic risk assessment outputs from rapid entire body assessment and quick exposure check in an engine oil company.

PubMed

Motamedzade, Majid; Ashuri, Mohammad Reza; Golmohammadi, Rostam; Mahjub, Hossein

2011-06-13

During the last decades, to assess the risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs), enormous observational methods have been developed. Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) are two general methods in this field. This study aimed to compare ergonomic risk assessment outputs from QEC and REBA in terms of agreement in distribution of postural loading scores based on analysis of working postures. This cross-sectional study was conducted in an engine oil company in which 40 jobs were studied. All jobs were observed by a trained occupational health practitioner. Job information was collected to ensure the completion of ergonomic risk assessment tools, including QEC, and REBA. The result revealed that there was a significant correlation between final scores (r=0.731) and the action levels (r =0.893) of two applied methods. Comparison between the action levels and final scores of two methods showed that there was no significant difference among working departments. Most of studied postures acquired low and moderate risk level in QEC assessment (low risk=20%, moderate risk=50% and High risk=30%) and in REBA assessment (low risk=15%, moderate risk=60% and high risk=25%). There is a significant correlation between two methods. They have a strong correlation in identifying risky jobs, and determining the potential risk for incidence of WMSDs. Therefore, there is possibility for researchers to apply interchangeably both methods, for postural risk assessment in appropriate working environments.

A study on the risk perception of light pollution and the process of social amplification of risk in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Kyung Hee; Choi, Jae Wook; Lee, Eunil; Cho, Yong Min; Ahn, Hyung Rae

2015-05-01

In this study, the risk perception level of each light pollution type was analyzed, and the effects of the variables (e.g., psychometric paradigm factor, trust in the government, etc.) on the process of the increase in the risk perception were analyzed. For the sample population (1096 persons) in Korea, the risk perception levels of each light pollution type and other environmental and health risk factors were compared, and the relative magnitude was examined. In addition, to test which variables affect the group with high-risk perception of each light pollution type, a logistic regression analysis was performed. For the group with highest risk perception of light pollution, the odds ratios (OR) of all psychometric paradigms (excluding controllability) increased compared to those of the group with low-risk perception. Additionally, the level showing the acquisition of information from the media and the recollection level of media criticism on each light pollution type showed a statistically significant increase. Especially, the risk perception of light trespass increased as trust in the government decreased. The significance of this study includes the finding that the public's risk perception of light pollution was significantly affected by the psychometric paradigm factors. Moreover, this study analyzed the differences of the variables that affect the increase in the risk perception of each light pollution type and provided a theoretical framework that can practically reflect the strategy for the risk communication of light pollution.

Risk factors for geriatric patient falls in rehabilitation hospital settings: a systematic review.

PubMed

Vieira, Edgar Ramos; Freund-Heritage, Rosalie; da Costa, Bruno R

2011-09-01

To review the literature to identify and synthesize the evidence on risk factors for patient falls in geriatric rehabilitation hospital settings. Eligible studies were systematically searched on 16 databases from inception to December 2010. The search strategies used a combination of terms for rehabilitation hospital patients, falls, risk factors and older adults. Cross-sectional, cohort, case-control studies and randomized clinical trials (RCTs) published in English that investigated risks for falls among patients ≥65 years of age in rehabilitation hospital settings were included. Studies that investigated fall risk assessment tools, but did not investigate risk factors themselves or did not report a measure of risk (e.g. odds ratio, relative risk) were excluded. A total of 2,824 references were identified; only eight articles concerning six studies met the inclusion criteria. In these, 1,924 geriatric rehabilitation patients were followed. The average age of the patients ranged from 77 to 83 years, the percentage of women ranged from 56% to 81%, and the percentage of fallers ranged from 15% to 54%. Two were case-control studies, two were RCTs and four were prospective cohort studies. Several intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors for falls were identified. Carpet flooring, vertigo, being an amputee, confusion, cognitive impairment, stroke, sleep disturbance, anticonvulsants, tranquilizers and antihypertensive medications, age between 71 and 80, previous falls, and need for transfer assistance are risk factors for geriatric patient falls in rehabilitation hospital settings.

Soy food intake and risk of gastric cancer: A dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Weng, Ke-Gui; Yuan, Ya-Ling

2017-08-01

Epidemiological studies were inconsistent on the association between soy food intake and risk of gastric cancer (GC). This study aimed to determine the role of soy food intake in the development of GC.A systematic search was conducted in PubMed and Web of Science to identify all relevant studies. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using a random-effects model, and the dose-response relationship between soy food intake and GC risk was also assessed.Thirteen prospective studies were identified with a total of 517,106 participants and 5800 cases. Among 11 types of soy food, high intake of total soy food (the highest vs the lowest category: RR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62-0.98) and nonfermented soy food (RR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.50-0.79) were inversely associated with GC risk, while high intake of miso soup was associated with the risk in male (RR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.02-1.36). In dose-response meta-analysis, total soy food intake (0-150 g/day) showed no significant association with GC risk, while high intake of nonfermented soy food was inversely related, especially an intake of more than 100 g/day. In male, miso soup intake (1-5 cups/day) was significantly associated with GC risk.High intake of nonfermented soy food might reduce the risk of GC, while miso soup intake might increase the risk in male.

Alerting the general population to genetic risks: the value of health messages communicating the existence of genetic risk factors for public health promotion.

PubMed

Smerecnik, Chris M R; Mesters, Ilse; de Vries, Nanne K; de Vries, Hein

2009-11-01

Health messages alerting the public to previously unknown genetic risk factors for multifactorial diseases are a potentially useful strategy to create public awareness, and may be an important first step in promoting public health. However, there is a lack of evidence-based insight into its impact on individuals who were unaware of the existence of genetic risk factors at the moment of information exposure. The authors conducted 3 experimental studies with health messages communicating information about genetic risk factors for salt sensitivity (Studies 1A and 1B) and heightened cholesterol (Study 2) compared with general information without reference to genetic risk factors as a between-subjects variable and risk perception and intention to engage in preventive behavior as dependent variables. All 3 studies revealed lower perceived susceptibility among participants who received information on genetic risk factors, which was associated with lowered intentions to engage in preventive behavior. In Studies 1A and 1B, these effects were observed only for previously unaware individuals, whereas in Study 2, they were observed for the entire sample. Alerting the public to the existence of genetic risk factors may not necessarily be beneficial to public health. Public health promoters should be aware of the possible adverse effects of alerting the general population to genetic risk factors, and should simultaneously educate the public about the meaning and consequences of such factors. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

HIV infection and sexual risk behaviour among youth who have experienced orphanhood: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Previous research has suggested that orphaned children and adolescents might have elevated risk for HIV infection. We examined the state of evidence regarding the association between orphan status and HIV risk in studies of youth aged 24 years and younger. Methods Using systematic review methodology, we identified 10 studies reporting data from 12 countries comparing orphaned and non-orphaned youth on HIV-related risk indicators, including HIV serostatus, other sexually transmitted infections, pregnancy and sexual behaviours. We meta-analyzed data from six studies reporting prevalence data on the association between orphan status and HIV serostatus, and we qualitatively summarized data from all studies on behavioural risk factors for HIV among orphaned youth. Results Meta-analysis of HIV testing data from 19,140 participants indicated significantly greater HIV seroprevalence among orphaned (10.8%) compared with non-orphaned youth (5.9%) (odds ratio = 1.97; 95% confidence interval = 1.41-2.75). Trends across studies showed evidence for greater sexual risk behaviour in orphaned youth. Conclusions Studies on HIV risk in orphaned populations, which mostly include samples from sub-Saharan Africa, show nearly two-fold greater odds of HIV infection among orphaned youth and higher levels of sexual risk behaviour than among their non-orphaned peers. Interventions to reduce risk for HIV transmission in orphaned youth are needed to address the sequelae of parental illness and death that might contribute to sexual risk and HIV infection. PMID:21592368

[Does fertility treatment increase the risk of breast cancer? Current knowledge and meta-analysis].

PubMed

Gabriele, V; Benabu, J-C; Ohl, J; Youssef, C Akladios; Mathelin, C

2017-05-01

The objective of this review was to assess the level of risk of breast cancer for women exposed to ovulation-inducing therapy (OIT). The 25 selected studies were extracted from the PUBMED database from January 2000 until March 2016 with the following key-words: "fertility agents", "infertility treatments", "clomiphene citrate", "buserelin", "ovarian stimulation", "assisted reproductive technology" and "breast cancer". Our meta-analysis was performed using Review Manager software, Cochrane Collaboration, 2014. The results were calculated by type of OIT, as well as globally. The analysis of these published epidemiological studies confirms that exposition to OIT is not a breast cancer risk factor, but the results are contradictory. Two studies have shown a significantly increased risk of breast cancer in a population of infertile women, while two others have found a significant decrease of this risk. The twenty others did not show any impact of IOT over this risk. Our meta-analysis of 20 selected studies has not identified a significant association between exposition to OIT and breast cancer risk (relative risk=0,96; IC 95: (0,81-1,14) for cohort studies and odds ratio=0,94; IC 95% (0,81-1,10) for case-control studies). Exposition to OIT is not an identified risk factor for breast cancer. A message reassuring about a possible risk of OIT-related breast cancer should be given to these women. Exposition to OIT is therefore not an indication of increased breast surveillance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Development of risk reduction behavioral counseling for Ebola virus disease survivors enrolled in the Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study, 2015-2016.

PubMed

Abad, Neetu; Malik, Tasneem; Ariyarajah, Archchun; Ongpin, Patricia; Hogben, Matthew; McDonald, Suzanna L R; Marrinan, Jaclyn; Massaquoi, Thomas; Thorson, Anna; Ervin, Elizabeth; Bernstein, Kyle; Ross, Christine; Liu, William J; Kroeger, Karen; Durski, Kara N; Broutet, Nathalie; Knust, Barbara; Deen, Gibrilla F

2017-09-01

During the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic, the public health community had concerns that sexual transmission of the Ebola virus (EBOV) from EVD survivors was a risk, due to EBOV persistence in body fluids of EVD survivors, particularly semen. The Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study was initiated to investigate this risk by assessing EBOV persistence in numerous body fluids of EVD survivors and providing risk reduction counseling based on test results for semen, vaginal fluid, menstrual blood, urine, rectal fluid, sweat, tears, saliva, and breast milk. This publication describes implementation of the counseling protocol and the key lessons learned. The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol was developed from a framework used to prevent transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The framework helped to identify barriers to risk reduction and facilitated the development of a personalized risk-reduction plan, particularly around condom use and abstinence. Pre-test and post-test counseling sessions included risk reduction guidance, and post-test counseling was based on the participants' individual test results. The behavioral counseling protocol enabled study staff to translate the study's body fluid test results into individualized information for study participants. The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol provided guidance to mitigate the risk of EBOV transmission from EVD survivors. It has since been shared with and adapted by other EVD survivor body fluid testing programs and studies in Ebola-affected countries.

Geographic Mapping as a Tool for Identifying Communities at High Risk for Fires.

PubMed

Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol; Coty, Mary-Beth

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the sample of older adults in a home fire safety (HFS) study captured participants living in the areas at highest risk for fire occurrence. The secondary aim was to identify high risk areas to focus future HFS interventions. Geographic information systems software was used to identify census tracts where study participants resided. Census data for these tracts were compared with participant data based on seven risk factors (ie, age greater than 65 years, nonwhite race, below high school education, low socioeconomic status, rented housing, year home built, home value) previously identified in a fire risk model. The distribution of participants and census tracts among risk categories determined how well higher risk census tracts were sampled. Of the 46 census tracts where the HFS intervention was implemented, 78% (n = 36) were identified as high or severe risk according to the fire risk model. Study participants' means for median annual family income (P < .0001) and median home value (P < .0001) were significantly lower than the census tract means (n = 46), indicating participants were at higher risk of fire occurrence. Of the 92 census tracts identified as high or severe risk in the entire county, the study intervention was implemented in 39% (n = 36), indicating 56 census tracts as potential areas for future HFS interventions. The Geographic information system-based fire risk model is an underutilized but important tool for practice that allows community agencies to develop, plan, and evaluate their outreach efforts and ensure the most effective use of scarce resources.

Risk of ischemic heart disease following occupational exposure to welding fumes: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mocevic, Emina; Kristiansen, Pernille; Bonde, Jens Peter

2015-04-01

Air pollution has been linked to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), but less is known about occupational exposure to welding fumes and the risk of IHD. The objective of this paper was to review the epidemiological evidence on causal links between welding fume exposure and risk of IHD and to investigate whether the risk of IHD depends on specific welding characteristics. A systematic search in Medline 1979-2013 and EMBASE 1974-2013 identified 18 epidemiological studies with at least one risk estimate of IHD morbidity or mortality among workers exposed to welding fumes. Following an assessment of completeness of reporting, confounding, and bias, each risk estimate was characterized as more or less reliable. Pooled risk estimates were computed across studies by random effect meta-analyses. The weighted relative risk (RR) for IHD following exposure to welding fumes was 1.09 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.00, 1.19]. We calculated a RR of 1.39 (95 % CI 0.96, 2.02) among studies using an internal reference group and 1.08 (95 % CI 0.99, 1.18) for studies using an external reference group. An increased risk was observed for acute myocardial infarction RR = 1.69 (95 % CI 1.18, 2.42) and other IHDs RR = 1.06 (95 % CI 0.98, 1.14). There was too limited evidence to evaluate the risk of IHD related to specific welding characteristics. Several studies indicate that welding is associated with a moderately increased risk of IHD; however, bias and confounding cannot be ruled out with reasonable confidence.

The Tripartite Model of Risk Perception (TRIRISK): Distinguishing Deliberative, Affective, and Experiential Components of Perceived Risk.

PubMed

Ferrer, Rebecca A; Klein, William M P; Persoskie, Alexander; Avishai-Yitshak, Aya; Sheeran, Paschal

2016-10-01

Although risk perception is a key predictor in health behavior theories, current conceptions of risk comprise only one (deliberative) or two (deliberative vs. affective/experiential) dimensions. This research tested a tripartite model that distinguishes among deliberative, affective, and experiential components of risk perception. In two studies, and in relation to three common diseases (cancer, heart disease, diabetes), we used confirmatory factor analyses to examine the factor structure of the tripartite risk perception (TRIRISK) model and compared the fit of the TRIRISK model to dual-factor and single-factor models. In a third study, we assessed concurrent validity by examining the impact of cancer diagnosis on (a) levels of deliberative, affective, and experiential risk perception, and (b) the strength of relations among risk components, and tested predictive validity by assessing relations with behavioral intentions to prevent cancer. The tripartite factor structure was supported, producing better model fit across diseases (studies 1 and 2). Inter-correlations among the components were significantly smaller among participants who had been diagnosed with cancer, suggesting that affected populations make finer-grained distinctions among risk perceptions (study 3). Moreover, all three risk perception components predicted unique variance in intentions to engage in preventive behavior (study 3). The TRIRISK model offers both a novel conceptualization of health-related risk perceptions, and new measures that enhance predictive validity beyond that engendered by unidimensional and bidimensional models. The present findings have implications for the ways in which risk perceptions are targeted in health behavior change interventions, health communications, and decision aids.

Association between physical activity and risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Qiu, Shanhu; Cai, Xue; Sun, Zilin; Li, Ling; Zügel, Martina; Steinacker, Jürgen Michael; Schumann, Uwe

2017-09-01

Increased physical activity (PA) is a key element in the management of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD); however, its association with NAFLD risk has not been systematically assessed. This meta-analysis of observational studies was to quantify this association with dose-response analysis. Electronic databases were searched to January 2017 for studies of adults reporting the risk of NAFLD in relation to PA with cohort or case-control designs. Studies that reported sex-specific data were included as separate studies. The overall risk estimates were pooled using a random-effects model, and the dose-response analysis was conducted to shape the quantitative relationship. A total of 6 cohort studies from 5 articles with 32,657 incident NAFLD cases from 142,781 participants, and 4 case-control studies from 3 articles with 382 NAFLD cases and 302 controls were included. Compared with the lowest PA level, the highest PA level was associated with a risk reduction of NAFLD in cohort [RR (risk ratio) 0.79, 95% CI (confidence interval) 0.71-0.89] and case-control studies [OR (odds ratio) 0.43, 95% CI 0.27-0.68]. For cohort studies, both highest and moderate PA levels were superior to the light one in lowering NAFLD risk ( p for interaction = 0.006 and 0.02, respectively), and there was a log-linear dose-response association ( p for nonlinearity = 0.10) between PA and NAFLD risk [RR 0.82 (95% CI 0.73-0.91) for every 500 metabolic equivalent (MET)-minutes/week increment in PA]. Increased PA may lead to a reduced risk of NAFLD in a dose-dependent manner, and the current guideline-recommended minimum PA level that approximates to 500 MET-minutes/week is able to moderately reduce the NAFLD risk.

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies

PubMed Central

Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-01

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture. PMID:27911854

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Xu, Jiuhong; Song, Chunli; Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-10

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture.

Proton-pump inhibitors and risk of fractures: an update meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, B; Huang, Y; Li, H; Sun, W; Liu, J

2016-01-01

To identify the relationship between proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) and the risk of fracture, we conducted an update meta-analysis of observational studies. Results showed that PPI use was associated with a modestly increased risk of hip, spine, and any-site fracture. Many studies have investigated the association of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) with fracture risk, but the results have been inconsistent. To evaluate this question, we performed a meta-analysis of relevant observational studies. A systematic literature search up to February 2015 was performed in PubMed. We combined relative risks (RRs) for fractures using random-effects models and conducted subgroup and stratified analyses. Eighteen studies involving a total of 244,109 fracture cases were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled analysis showed that PPI use could moderately increase the risk of hip fracture [RR = 1.26, 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) 1.16–1.36]. There was statistically significant heterogeneity among studies (p < 0.001; I 2 = 71.9 %). After limiting to cohort studies, there was also a moderate increase in hip fracture risk without evidence of study heterogeneity. Pooling revealed that short-term use (<1 year) and longer use (>1 year) were similarly associated with increased risk of hip fracture. Furthermore, a moderately increased risk of spine (RR = 1.58, 95 % CI 1.38–1.82) and any-site fracture (RR = 1.33, 95 % CI 1.15–1.54) was also found among PPI users. In this update meta-analysis of observational studies, PPI use modestly increased the risk of hip, spine, and any-site fracture, but no evidence of duration effect in subgroup analysis.

An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

PubMed

Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

2018-06-01

Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Circulating interleukin-10 and risk of cardiovascular events: a prospective study in the elderly at risk.

PubMed

Welsh, Paul; Murray, Heather M; Ford, Ian; Trompet, Stella; de Craen, Anton J M; Jukema, J Wouter; Stott, David J; McInnes, Iain B; Packard, Chris J; Westendorp, Rudi G J; Sattar, Naveed

2011-10-01

The goal of this study was to examine the association of the antiinflammatory interleukin-10 (IL-10) with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). In the PROSPER (PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk) cohort, we related baseline concentrations of circulating IL-10 to risk of CVD events in a nested case (n=819)-control (n=1618) study of 3.2 years of follow-up. Circulating IL-10 showed few strong associations with classical risk factors but was positively correlated with IL-6 and C-reactive protein. IL-10 was positively associated with risk of CVD events (odds ratio [OR] 1.17, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31 per unit increase in log IL-10) after adjusting for classical risk factors and C-reactive protein. Furthermore, IL-10 was associated more strongly with CVD risk among those with no previous history of CVD (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.70), compared with those with previous CVD (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.19; P=0.018). Overall, IL-10 showed a modest ability to add discrimination to classical risk factors (C-statistic +0.005, P=0.002). Baseline circulating levels of the antiinflammatory IL-10 are positively associated with risk of CVD among the elderly without prior CVD events, although the association is less evident in those with a history of CVD. Additional epidemiological and mechanistic studies investigating the role of IL-10 in CVD are warranted.

Cancer risk of sulfonylureas in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A systematic review.

PubMed

Chen, Yuehong; Du, Liang; Li, Ling; Ma, Jun; Geng, Xingyuan; Yao, Xun; Liu, Guanjian; Sun, Xin

2017-05-01

Increasing evidence suggests that oral hypoglycemic agents used in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) may affect cancer risk. Sulfonylureas (SUs) are the most frequently used antidiabetic medications for T2DM. Whether using SUs has any effect on cancer has received considerable attention. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of SUs on cancer risk in T2DM patients. Published studies were identified in PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Register of Clinical Studies, and ClinicalTrials.gov was searched for additional information to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs), cohort studies, and case-control studies. The abstracts and full text were screened, data collected, and the risk of bias assessed for each individual study. Seventy-seven studies (33 RCTs, 27 cohort studies, and 17 case-control studies) were analyzed. The RCTs did not report a difference in the risk of malignant tumor between SU-treated T2DM patients and controls (odds ratio [OR] 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-1.18); cohort studies showed that cancer risk was higher in patients using SUs than metformin (relative risk 1.60 [95%CI 1.37-1.87]; adjusted hazard ratio 1.13 [95%CI 1.06-1.19]), and case-control studies suggested a trend for increased cancer risk in those using SUs compared with non-SU users (adjusted OR 1.13; 95%CI 0.93-1.37). The available evidence clearly shows that SUs can significantly increase the risk of cancer compared with metformin. Although the evidence suggests the possibility that SU users may have a higher risk of cancer than those using alternative medications in addition to metformin, it remains inadequate to enable definitive conclusions to be drawn. © 2016 Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Depression and risk of fracture and bone loss: an updated meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Wu, Q; Liu, B; Tonmoy, S

2018-03-12

This meta-analysis pooled results from 23 qualifying individual cohort studies and found that depression was significantly associated with an increased risk of fractures and bone loss. The association between depression and risk of fracture remains controversial. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis to examine the effect of depression on the risk of osteoporotic fractures and bone loss. We searched databases and reviewed citations in relevant articles for eligible cohort studies. Two investigators independently conducted study selection, appraisal, and data abstraction through the use of a standardized protocol. Random effect models were used for meta-analysis. Cochrane Q and I 2 statistics were used to assess heterogeneity. Funnel plots and rank correlation tests were used to evaluate publication bias. Twenty-three studies were included for meta-analysis. In studies that reported hazard ratio (HR) as the outcome (nine studies [n = 309,862]), depression was associated with 26% increase in fracture risk (HR = 1.26, 95% CI, 1.10-1.43, p < 0.001). Studies that reported risk ratio (RR) as the outcome (seven studies [n = 64,975]) suggested that depression was associated with 39% increase in fracture risk (RR = 1.39, 95% CI, 1.19-1.62, p < 0.001). Among studies that reported hip bone mineral density (BMD) as an outcome (eight studies [n = 15,442]), depression was associated with a reduced mean annual bone loss rate of 0.35% (0.18-0.53%, p < 0.001). The increased risk of fracture and bone loss associated with depression was consistent in all meta-analysis having modified inclusion criteria and in different subgroup analyses as well. Significant heterogeneity was observed in the meta-analysis; however, no significant publication bias was detected. Depression is associated with a significant increased risk in fracture and bone loss. Effective prevention may decrease such risk.

Modified social ecological model: a tool to guide the assessment of the risks and risk contexts of HIV epidemics.

PubMed

Baral, Stefan; Logie, Carmen H; Grosso, Ashley; Wirtz, Andrea L; Beyrer, Chris

2013-05-17

Social and structural factors are now well accepted as determinants of HIV vulnerabilities. These factors are representative of social, economic, organizational and political inequities. Associated with an improved understanding of multiple levels of HIV risk has been the recognition of the need to implement multi-level HIV prevention strategies. Prevention sciences research and programming aiming to decrease HIV incidence requires epidemiologic studies to collect data on multiple levels of risk to inform combination HIV prevention packages. Proximal individual-level risks, such as sharing injection devices and unprotected penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex, are necessary in mediating HIV acquisition and transmission. However, higher order social and structural-level risks can facilitate or reduce HIV transmission on population levels. Data characterizing these risks is often far more actionable than characterizing individual-level risks. We propose a modified social ecological model (MSEM) to help visualize multi-level domains of HIV infection risks and guide the development of epidemiologic HIV studies. Such a model may inform research in epidemiology and prevention sciences, particularly for key populations including men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PID), and sex workers. The MSEM builds on existing frameworks by examining multi-level risk contexts for HIV infection and situating individual HIV infection risks within wider network, community, and public policy contexts as well as epidemic stage. The utility of the MSEM is demonstrated with case studies of HIV risk among PID and MSM. The MSEM is a flexible model for guiding epidemiologic studies among key populations at risk for HIV in diverse sociocultural contexts. Successful HIV prevention strategies for key populations require effective integration of evidence-based biomedical, behavioral, and structural interventions. While the focus of epidemiologic studies has traditionally been on describing individual-level risk factors, the future necessitates comprehensive epidemiologic data characterizing multiple levels of HIV risk.

Youth Suicide Risk and Sexual Orientation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rutter, Philip A.; Soucar, Emil

2002-01-01

Study examines the relationship between sexual orientation and youth suicide risk. The suicide risk demonstrated by sexual minorities in this study was no greater than that of their heterosexual peers. Youth who reported more external support demonstrated lower overall suicide risk and, specifically, lower levels of hostility, hopelessness, and…

Coronary artery disease: the role of lipids, hypertension and smoking.

PubMed

Keil, U

2000-01-01

Pioneering epidemiological projects such as the Seven Countries study, and the Framingham Heart study established the classical risk factor concept for coronary heart disease (CAD). These landmark studies showed that a raised serum total cholesterol, high blood pressure (systolic and diastolic) and smoking increase the risk of developing CHD in men and women in a graded fashion. Women develop CHD about 10 years later than men and women's risk is smaller. In the years and decades following these early studies many more prospective cohort studies primarily in the US and Europe have confirmed the early findings. In Germany two occupational and one population based cohort studies have contributed further information on this topic. In addition interactions between the three classical risk factors have been quantified, demonstrating for example that smoking carries a much higher risk for CHD in persons with high cholesterol values. Most cohort studies have confirmed that the relative risks for the classical risk factors are very similar. However, the respective absolute risks can differ tremendously, indicating that many more factors such as socio-economic conditions, nutrition, physical activity and others are of importance for the development of CHD. The scientific community, however, did not accept the consistent findings from the many observational studies as proof of causality. They required evidence that the risk for CHD could be reduced when the respective risk factor(s) was (were) diminished or eliminated. The late 1960s early 1970s thus saw the beginning of the era of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) following the advice of Archibald Cochrane who once wrote "we have to find that point on the distribution curve where therapy does more good than harm". We now know from meta-analyses of RCTs that a 1% reduction in serum cholesterol produces a 2-3% decline in risk for CHD and we can achieve reductions in total cholesterol of 20% or more. Regarding treatment of high blood pressure, meta-analyses of RCTs have shown that a reduction of 1 mmHg in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) produces a 2-3% decline in risk of CHD, and we can achieve reductions in DBP on average of 5-6 mmHg. With regard to smoking cessation, observational studies have shown that within 1-5 years of cessation those who stop smoking have a 50-70% lower risk than current smokers. Thus the findings from observational studies, RCTs and studies on mechanisms have clearly established the importance of the three classical risk factors for CHD. The successful treatment of these risk factors will not only lower the burden of CHD in the population but promises to be the most effective way of improving the health of the whole population.

Cardiovascular risk with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: systematic review of population-based controlled observational studies.

PubMed

McGettigan, Patricia; Henry, David

2011-09-01

Randomised trials have highlighted the cardiovascular risks of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in high doses and sometimes atypical settings. Here, we provide estimates of the comparative risks with individual NSAIDs at typical doses in community settings. We performed a systematic review of community-based controlled observational studies. We conducted comprehensive literature searches, extracted adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates, and pooled the estimates for major cardiovascular events associated with use of individual NSAIDs, in different doses, and in populations with low and high background risks of cardiovascular events. We also compared individual drugs in pair-wise (within study) analyses, generating ratios of RRs (RRRs). Thirty case-control studies included 184,946 cardiovascular events, and 21 cohort studies described outcomes in >2.7 million exposed individuals. Of the extensively studied drugs (ten or more studies), the highest overall risks were seen with rofecoxib, 1.45 (95% CI 1.33, 1.59), and diclofenac, 1.40 (1.27, 1.55), and the lowest with ibuprofen, 1.18 (1.11, 1.25), and naproxen, 1.09 (1.02, 1.16). In a sub-set of studies, risk was elevated with low doses of rofecoxib, 1.37 (1.20, 1.57), celecoxib, 1.26 (1.09, 1.47), and diclofenac, 1.22 (1.12, 1.33), and rose in each case with higher doses. Ibuprofen risk was seen only with higher doses. Naproxen was risk-neutral at all doses. Of the less studied drugs etoricoxib, 2.05 (1.45, 2.88), etodolac, 1.55 (1.28, 1.87), and indomethacin, 1.30 (1.19, 1.41), had the highest risks. In pair-wise comparisons, etoricoxib had a higher RR than ibuprofen, RRR = 1.68 (99% CI 1.14, 2.49), and naproxen, RRR = 1.75 (1.16, 2.64); etodolac was not significantly different from naproxen and ibuprofen. Naproxen had a significantly lower risk than ibuprofen, RRR = 0.92 (0.87, 0.99). RR estimates were constant with different background risks for cardiovascular disease and rose early in the course of treatment. This review suggests that among widely used NSAIDs, naproxen and low-dose ibuprofen are least likely to increase cardiovascular risk. Diclofenac in doses available without prescription elevates risk. The data for etoricoxib were sparse, but in pair-wise comparisons this drug had a significantly higher RR than naproxen or ibuprofen. Indomethacin is an older, rather toxic drug, and the evidence on cardiovascular risk casts doubt on its continued clinical use. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Police response to domestic violence: making decisions about risk and risk management.

PubMed

Perez Trujillo, Monica; Ross, Stuart

2008-04-01

Assessing and responding to risk are key elements in how police respond to domestic violence. However, relatively little is known about the way police make judgments about the risks associated with domestic violence and how these judgments influence their actions. This study examines police decisions about risk in domestic violence incidents when using a risk assessment instrument. Based on a sample of 501 risk assessments completed by police in Australia, this study shows that a limited number of items on the risk assessment instrument are important in police officers' decisions about risk. Statistical analyses show that the victim's level of fear contributes to police officers' judgment on the level of risk and their decisions on which risk management strategy should be used. These findings suggest that research on police responses to domestic violence needs to pay greater attention to situational dynamics and the task requirements of risk-based decision making.

Migraine Headache and Ischemic Stroke Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Spector, June T.; Kahn, Susan R.; Jones, Miranda R.; Jayakumar, Monisha; Dalal, Deepan; Nazarian, Saman

2010-01-01

Background Observational studies, including recent large cohort studies which were unavailable for prior meta-analysis, have suggested an association between migraine headache and ischemic stroke. We performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the strength of association between migraine and ischemic stroke risk. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, through February 2009 for studies of human subjects in the English language. Study selection using a priori selection criteria, data extraction, and assessment of study quality were conducted independently by reviewer pairs using standardized forms. Results Twenty-one (60%) of 35 studies met the selection criteria, for a total of 622,381 participants (13 case-control, 8 cohort studies) included in the meta-analysis. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of ischemic stroke comparing migraineurs to non-migraineurs using a random effects model was 2.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.76). The pooled adjusted effect estimates for studies that reported relative risks and hazard ratios, respectively, were 2.41 (95% CI, 1.81-3.20) and 1.52 (95% CI, 0.99-2.35). The overall pooled effect estimate was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.72-2.43). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding lower quality studies. Conclusions Migraine is associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. These findings underscore the importance of identifying high-risk migraineurs with other modifiable stroke risk factors. Future studies of the effect of migraine treatment and modifiable risk factor reduction on stroke risk in migraineurs are warranted. PMID:20493462

Adherence to healthy lifestyle and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Zhang, Cuilin; Tobias, Deirdre K; Chavarro, Jorge E; Bao, Wei; Wang, Dong; Ley, Sylvia H; Hu, Frank B

2014-09-30

To quantify the association between a combination of healthy lifestyle factors before pregnancy (healthy body weight, healthy diet, regular exercise, and not smoking) and the risk of gestational diabetes. Prospective cohort study. Nurses' Health Study II, United States. 20,136 singleton live births in 14,437 women without chronic disease. Self reported incident gestational diabetes diagnosed by a physician, validated by medical records in a previous study. Incident first time gestational diabetes was reported in 823 pregnancies. Each lifestyle factor measured was independently and significantly associated with risk of gestational diabetes. The combination of three low risk factors (non-smoker, ≥ 150 minutes a week of moderate to vigorous physical activity, and healthy eating (top two fifths of Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 adherence score)) was associated with a 41% lower risk of gestational diabetes compared with all other pregnancies (relative risk 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.48 to 0.71). Addition of body mass index (BMI) <25 before pregnancy (giving a combination of four low risk factors) was associated with a 52% lower risk of gestational diabetes compared with all other pregnancies (relative risk 0.48, 0.38 to 0.61). Compared with pregnancies in women who did not meet any of the low risk lifestyle factors, those meeting all four criteria had an 83% lower risk of gestational diabetes (relative risk 0.17, 0.12 to 0.25). The population attributable risk percentage of the four risk factors in combination (smoking, inactivity, overweight, and poor diet) was 47.5% (95% confidence interval 35.6% to 56.6%). A similar population attributable risk percentage (49.2%) was observed when the distributions of the four low risk factors from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-10) data were applied to the calculation. Adherence to a low risk lifestyle before pregnancy is associated with a low risk of gestational diabetes and could be an effective strategy for the prevention of gestational diabetes. © Zhang et al 2014.

Information security risk management for computerized health information systems in hospitals: a case study of Iran.

PubMed

Zarei, Javad; Sadoughi, Farahnaz

2016-01-01

In recent years, hospitals in Iran - similar to those in other countries - have experienced growing use of computerized health information systems (CHISs), which play a significant role in the operations of hospitals. But, the major challenge of CHIS use is information security. This study attempts to evaluate CHIS information security risk management at hospitals of Iran. This applied study is a descriptive and cross-sectional research that has been conducted in 2015. The data were collected from 551 hospitals of Iran. Based on literature review, experts' opinion, and observations at five hospitals, our intensive questionnaire was designed to assess security risk management for CHISs at the concerned hospitals, which was then sent to all hospitals in Iran by the Ministry of Health. Sixty-nine percent of the studied hospitals pursue information security policies and procedures in conformity with Iran Hospitals Accreditation Standards. At some hospitals, risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk estimation, as well as risk treatment, are unstructured without any specified approach or methodology. There is no significant structured approach to risk management at the studied hospitals. Information security risk management is not followed by Iran's hospitals and their information security policies. This problem can cause a large number of challenges for their CHIS security in future. Therefore, Iran's Ministry of Health should develop practical policies to improve information security risk management in the hospitals of Iran.

The contribution of recently identified adult BMI risk loci to paediatric obesity in a Singaporean Chinese childhood dataset.

PubMed

Dorajoo, R; Ong, R T-H; Sim, X; Wang, L; Liu, W; Tai, E S; Liu, J; Saw, S-M

2017-12-01

Recent genome-wide association studies have identified 103 adult obesity risk loci; however, it is unclear if these findings are relevant to East-Asian childhood body mass index (BMI) levels. We evaluated for paediatric obesity associations at these risk loci utilizing genome-wide data from Chinese childhood subjects in the Singapore Cohort study Of the Risk factors for Myopia study (N = 1006). A weighted gene-risk score of all adult obesity risk loci in the Singapore Cohort study Of the Risk factors for Myopia study showed strong associations with BMI at age 9 (p-value = 3.40 × 10 -12 ) and 4-year average BMI (age 9 to 12, p-value = 6.67 × 10 -8 ). Directionally consistent nominal associations for 15 index single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (p-value < 0.05) were observed. Pathway analysis with genes from these 15 replicating loci revealed over-representation for the G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR)-mediated integration of entero-endocrine signalling pathway exemplified by L-cell (adjusted p-value = 0.018). Evaluations of birth weight to modify the effects of BMI risk SNPs in paediatric obesity did not reveal significant interactions, and these SNPs were generally not associated with birth weight. At least some common adult BMI risk variants predispose to paediatric obesity risk in East-Asians. © 2016 World Obesity Federation.

Modifiable risk factors of hypertension: A hospital-based case-control study from Kerala, India.

PubMed

Pilakkadavath, Zarin; Shaffi, Muhammed

2016-01-01

Hypertension is a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in Kerala. Excess dietary salt, low dietary potassium, overweight and obesity, physical inactivity, excess alcohol, smoking, socioeconomic status, psychosocial stressors, and diabetes are considered as modifiable risk factors for hypertension. To estimate and compare the distribution of modifiable risk factors among hypertensive (cases) and nonhypertensive (controls) patients and to estimate the effect relationship of risk factors. Age- and sex-matched case-control study was conducted in a tertiary care hospital in Kerala using a pretested interviewer-administered structured questionnaire based on the WHO STEPS instrument for chronic disease risk factor surveillance. Bivariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were done. A total of 296 subjects were included in the study. The mean age of study sample was 50.13 years. All modifiable risk factors studied vis-ΰ-vis obesity, lack of physical activity, inadequate fruits and vegetable intake, diabetes, smoking, and alcohol use were significantly different in proportion among cases and controls. Obesity, lack of physical activity, smoking, and diabetes were found to be significant risk factors for hypertension after adjusting for other risk factors. Hypertension is strongly driven by a set of modifiable risk factors. Massive public awareness campaign targeting risk factors is essential in controlling hypertension in Kerala, especially focusing on physical exercise and control of diabetes, obesity, and on quitting smoking.

Assessment of ecological and human health risks of metals in urban road dust based on geochemical fractionation and potential bioavailability.

PubMed

Jayarathne, Ayomi; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Ayoko, Godwin A; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2018-09-01

Metals are one of the primary pollutants in the urban environment that pose adverse ecological and human health impacts. Therefore, the accurate quantification of the risk posed by metals is essential for developing effective risk management strategies to safeguard the urban environment. This study assessed the ecological and human health risks of six metals, commonly present in road dust by improving the original risk indices based on their potential bioavailability characteristics. The bioavailability of metals was determined by considering their distribution between the different geochemical phases of exchangeable, reducible, oxidisable and residual. The results of the modified risk analysis indicated that the road dust poses a low ecological risk in most of the study sites. According to the present situation, the non-cancer risk of individual metals for both, children and adults followed the decreasing trend of Pb > Cu > Cr > Zn > Ni > Cd. This study also found that depending on the particle size ranges, the potential of multiple metals being able to cause non-cancer health risk was low at most study sites. In terms of cancer health risk, Cr present at most of the study sites was found to be within the cancer threshold limit, even though the Cr content and the bioavailable fractions were relatively low. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social Reconnection Revisited: The Effects of Social Exclusion Risk on Reciprocity, Trust, and General Risk-Taking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Derfler-Rozin, Rellie; Pillutla, Madan; Thau, Stefan

2010-01-01

We hypothesize that people at risk of exclusion from groups will engage in actions that can socially reconnect them with others and test the hypothesis in four studies. We show that participants at risk of exclusion reciprocated the behavior of an unknown person (Study 1a) and a potential excluder (Study 1b) more compared to two control groups…

History of Military Service and the Risk of Suicidal Ideation: Findings from the 2008 National Survey on Drug Use and Health

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Richard; Barber, Catherine; Azrael, Deb; Mukamal, Kenneth J.; Miller, Matthew

2011-01-01

Studies of completed suicide by history of military service have produced inconsistent findings; no representative population-based study has compared the risk of nonfatal suicidal behavior among veterans with risk among nonveterans. The objective of this study was to examine whether male veterans of the U.S. military are at heightened risk of…

Learning To Fail: Case Studies of Students At Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strother, Deborah Burnett, Ed.

This study of students at risk was conducted to determine who is at risk, what puts students at risk, what schools are doing to help those students, and how effective these efforts are. Data were collected on about 49,000 students and almost 10,000 teachers in over 275 schools in 85 U.S. communities, and researchers conducted case studies of 65…

The effectiveness of risk management: an analysis of project risk planning across industries and countries.

PubMed

Zwikael, Ofer; Ahn, Mark

2011-01-01

This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi-industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002-2007 period. Results of this study show that project context--industry and country where a project is executed--significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Association of High-Density Lipoprotein-Cholesterol Versus Apolipoprotein A-I With Risk of Coronary Heart Disease: The European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer-Norfolk Prospective Population Study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, and the Women's Health Study.

PubMed

van Capelleveen, Julian C; Bochem, Andrea E; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Mora, Samia; Hoogeveen, Ron C; Ballantyne, Christie M; Ridker, Paul M; Sun, Wensheng; Barter, Philip J; Tall, Alan R; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Kastelein, John J P; Wareham, Nick J; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Hovingh, G Kees

2017-08-03

The contribution of apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk stratification over and above high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is unclear. We studied the associations between plasma levels of HDL-C and apoA-I, either alone or combined, with risk of CHD events and cardiovascular risk factors among apparently healthy men and women. HDL-C and apoA-I levels were measured among 17 661 participants of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-Norfolk prospective population study. Hazard ratios for CHD events and distributions of risk factors were calculated by quartiles of HDL-C and apoA-I. Results were validated using data from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and WHS (Women's Health Study) cohorts, comprising 15 494 and 27 552 individuals, respectively. In EPIC-Norfolk, both HDL-C and apoA-I quartiles were strongly and inversely associated with CHD risk. Within HDL-C quartiles, higher apoA-I levels were not associated with lower CHD risk; in fact, CHD risk was higher within some HDL-C quartiles. ApoA-I levels were associated with higher levels of CHD risk factors: higher body mass index, HbA1c, non-HDL-C, triglycerides, apolipoprotein B, systolic blood pressure, and C-reactive protein, within fixed HDL-C quartiles. In contrast, HDL-C levels were consistently inversely associated with overall CHD risk and CHD risk factors within apoA-I quartiles ( P <0.001). These findings were validated in the ARIC and WHS cohorts. Our findings demonstrate that apoA-I levels do not offer predictive information over and above HDL-C. In fact, within some HDL-C quartiles, higher apoA-I levels were associated with higher risk of CHD events, possibly because of the unexpected higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in association with higher apoA-I levels. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00000479. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Focusing on appraisals: how and why anger and fear influence driving risk perception.

PubMed

Lu, Jingyi; Xie, Xiaofei; Zhang, Ruogu

2013-06-01

The present research explores how and why anger and fear influence driving risk perception. Based on appraisal tendency framework, researchers hypothesized that anger and fear would influence driving risk perception in opposite directions due to their differences in appraisals. Study 1 showed that anger reduced risk perception, whereas fear increased it. In Studies 2, 3, and 4, the researchers adopted the paradigm of reappraisal to investigate the causes of the opposite effects found in Study 1. Consistent with our hypothesis, appraisals accounted for these effects: After reappraisals along the dimensions of certainty (Study 2), control (Study 3), and responsibility (Study 4), the different effects between anger and fear on driving risk perception diminished or disappeared. In addition, fearful or angry experience mediated the effects of reappraisals on driving risk perception. The findings highlight the necessity to differentiate anger and fear in road safety management. Additionally, the current research also provides feasible methods (e.g., certainty, control, or responsibility reappraisal) to intervene in driving risk perception, which is important for driving safety. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[EVALUATION OF THE PERCEPTION OF RISK IN THE NURSING STAFF IN CARE OF PATIENTS WITH SUSPECTED BIOLOGICAL HAZARD].

PubMed

Grau Giner, Ana; Fornieles Moreira, Margarita; Márquez Mora, Mónica; Moragas Bayés, Núria; Rodríguez Ruiz, Ma José; Gisbert Cases, Ángels

2016-05-01

Healthcare personnel is especially vulnerable to the risks derived from their job. The complexity that has the care of patients with Ebola justifies the study of the perception of risk of such professionals. To know the perception of risk in the nursing staff that takes care of patients suspected of suffering the Ebola virus. Transversal study carried out in the Hospital Clinic of Barcelona. 19 professionals of nursing staff that attended suspected Ebola patients were included in the study. The data was collected through a questionnaire of dimensional evaluation of the perceived risk along with sociodemographic variables and a subsequent statistics analysis. A percentage of 68% of the nursing staff refereed having a high level of knowledge of the risk associated with the factor of this study. A percentage of 42% determined that there was a very high possibility of being harmed. A percentage of 63% considered that the most harmful consequences would appear in short term, and finally a percentage of 48% considered that there was a very high risk of accident or illness associated to the factor of this study, whereas a percentage of 5% considered the risk to be very low. The answers obtained showed not only that nursing staff had a very high level of knowledge regarding the risk associated to the factor of this study, but also that the emotional fear was very high.

Alcohol consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japanese: a systematic review.

PubMed

Seike, Nobuko; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Kadowaki, Takashi

2008-01-01

To evaluate the association between alcohol consumption and the risk for type 2 diabetes (DM) in Japanese. We searched the MEDLINE data base with the key words 'alcohol intake' (or 'alcohol consumption') and 'Japanese' cross-linked with 'diabetes mellitus' (or 'impaired glucose tolerance'). The reports we sought were restricted to prospective cohort studies, randomized controlled trials, meta-analyses and systematic reviews. Computerized and hand searches were conducted in June 2007. Seven prospective cohort studies were adopted. We previously reported that in lean Japanese men (BMI < or =22.0 kg/m2), moderate to heavy alcohol intake is a risk factor for diabetes. One study found heavy alcohol intake to be associated with an increased risk in low-BMI men while moderate alcohol intake was associated with a reduced risk in higher-BMI men. Another study suggested daily alcohol consumption to be a risk factor in low-BMI participants, while being protective in middle-BMI participants. Yet another study demonstrated a U-shaped association between alcohol consumption and the risk of diabetes in men. Three other studies, which did not divide the subjects in terms of BMI values, indicated alcohol intake to be an increased risk for diabetes, two being in men and one being in women, respectively. For a large number of Japanese men who have relatively low BMI, alcohol intake is an established risk factor for diabetes.

An evaluation of venous thromboembolic risk in acutely ill medical patients immobilized at home: the AT-HOME Study.

PubMed

Haas, Sylvia K; Hach-Wunderle, Viola; Mader, Frank H; Ruster, Katherine; Paar, Wilhelm D

2007-01-01

Many risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized medical patients are also present in medical outpatients. VTE prevention represents an important challenge for physicians treating patients at home. The AT-HOME study was a prospective cross-sectional observational study designed to assess awareness of the risk of VTE in immobilized acutely ill medical outpatients among German physicians, many of whom were participating in a national Continuing Medical Education (CME) program designed to raise awareness of VTE. The study involved 1210 medical patients who were acutely confined to bed at home. Physicians performed a subjective assessment of VTE risk, which was rated on a 10-point scale (1 = very low risk; 10 = very high risk). The risk of VTE was also assessed retrospectively by using a scorecard developed for use in hospitalized medical patients. Of the 1210 patients, 198 (16%) had risk scores of 0-4, 319 (26%) had scores of 5 or 6, and 693 (57%) had scores > or =7. Overall, 966 patients (80%) received thromboprophylaxis. The proportion of patients receiving thromboprophylaxis was 0% to 47% in risk score groups 0-4, 76% to 85% in groups 5 and 6, and 90% to 100% in risk score groups 7-10. In the retrospective assessment of VTE risk, 74% of patients were at high risk, 15% were at intermediate risk, and 11% were at low risk. The proportions of patients receiving thromboprophylaxis in these groups were 87%, 61%, and 55%, respectively. The involvement of physicians in educational activities focusing on VTE awareness appeared to create awareness of the risks of VTE in acutely ill medical outpatients.

A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.

PubMed

Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A

2010-07-01

To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

Clinical application of the Melbourne risk prediction tool in a high-risk upper abdominal surgical population: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Parry, S; Denehy, L; Berney, S; Browning, L

2014-03-01

(1) To determine the ability of the Melbourne risk prediction tool to predict a pulmonary complication as defined by the Melbourne Group Scale in a medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery population during the postoperative period; (2) to identify the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications; and (3) to examine the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications in this high-risk population. Observational cohort study. Tertiary Australian referral centre. 50 individuals who underwent medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery. Presence of postoperative pulmonary complications was screened daily for seven days using the Melbourne Group Scale (Version 2). Postoperative pulmonary risk prediction was calculated according to the Melbourne risk prediction tool. (1) Melbourne risk prediction tool; and (2) the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. Sixty-six percent (33/50) underwent hepatobiliary or upper gastrointestinal surgery. Mean (SD) anaesthetic duration was 377.8 (165.5) minutes. The risk prediction tool classified 84% (42/50) as high risk. Overall postoperative pulmonary complication incidence was 42% (21/50). The tool was 91% sensitive and 21% specific with a 50% chance of correct classification. This is the first study to externally validate the Melbourne risk prediction tool in an independent medically defined high-risk population. There was a higher incidence of pulmonary complications postoperatively observed compared to that previously reported. Results demonstrated poor validity of the tool in a population already defined medically as high risk and when applied postoperatively. This observational study has identified several important points to consider in future trials. Copyright © 2013 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of genetic testing for risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus on health behaviors and outcomes: study rationale, development and design.

PubMed

Cho, Alex H; Killeya-Jones, Ley A; O'Daniel, Julianne M; Kawamoto, Kensaku; Gallagher, Patrick; Haga, Susanne; Lucas, Joseph E; Trujillo, Gloria M; Joy, Scott V; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S

2012-01-18

Type 2 diabetes is a prevalent chronic condition globally that results in extensive morbidity, decreased quality of life, and increased health services utilization. Lifestyle changes can prevent the development of diabetes, but require patient engagement. Genetic risk testing might represent a new tool to increase patients' motivation for lifestyle changes. Here we describe the rationale, development, and design of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) assessing the clinical and personal utility of incorporating type 2 diabetes genetic risk testing into comprehensive diabetes risk assessments performed in a primary care setting. Patients are recruited in the laboratory waiting areas of two primary care clinics and enrolled into one of three study arms. Those interested in genetic risk testing are randomized to receive either a standard risk assessment (SRA) for type 2 diabetes incorporating conventional risk factors plus upfront disclosure of the results of genetic risk testing ("SRA+G" arm), or the SRA alone ("SRA" arm). Participants not interested in genetic risk testing will not receive the test, but will receive SRA (forming a third, "no-test" arm). Risk counseling is provided by clinic staff (not study staff external to the clinic). Fasting plasma glucose, insulin levels, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference are measured at baseline and 12 months, as are patients' self-reported behavioral and emotional responses to diabetes risk information. Primary outcomes are changes in insulin resistance and BMI after 12 months; secondary outcomes include changes in diet patterns, physical activity, waist circumference, and perceived risk of developing diabetes. The utility, feasibility, and efficacy of providing patients with genetic risk information for common chronic diseases in primary care remain unknown. The study described here will help to establish whether providing type 2 diabetes genetic risk information in a primary care setting can help improve patients' clinical outcomes, risk perceptions, and/or their engagement in healthy behavior change. In addition, study design features such as the use of existing clinic personnel for risk counseling could inform the future development and implementation of care models for the use of individual genetic risk information in primary care. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00849563.

Organochlorine pesticides across the tributaries of River Ravi, Pakistan: Human health risk assessment through dermal exposure, ecological risks, source fingerprints and spatio-temporal distribution.

PubMed

Baqar, Mujtaba; Sadef, Yumna; Ahmad, Sajid Rashid; Mahmood, Adeel; Li, Jun; Zhang, Gan

2018-03-15

This study monitored the human health risks through dermal exposure, hazardous risks to ecological integrity, contamination levels, spatio-temporal distribution, and congener specific analysis of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) across River Ravi and its three northern tributaries (Nullah Bein, Nullah Basanter and Nullah Deg). The residual levels of OCPs isomers were screened for water (n=54) and surface sediment (n=54) samples from twenty seven sampling sites in two alternate seasons (pre-monsoon and post-monsoon). The ∑OCPs concentrations ranged from 13.61 to 1992.18ng/g dry weight and 12.89 to 128.16ng/L with predominance of β-endosulfan and p,p'-DDT in sediment and water matrixes, respectively. Distribution pattern revealed significantly higher concentrations in upstream and midstream, suggesting considerable transboundary OCPs pollution. Calculated ratios of α-HCH/γ-HCH, o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT, (DDE+DDD)/∑DDTs and cis/trans-chlordane for water and sediments identified the fresh addition of lindane, technical DDTs and chlordane in the study area. Risk quotient (RQ) based ecological risk was found to be >1 at all studied streams during both seasons and elucidates higher risks for endosulfan (α-endosulfan) and endrin. Human health risk assessment indicated absence of hazardous (non-carcinogenic) risk through bathing in studied streams; as the hazard index values ranged from 1.09E-05 to 2.48E-02 (acceptable limit; <1). However, the calculated carcinogenic risk possessed by OCPs through dermal exposure ranged from 1.39E-10 to 1.98E-05 that highlighted the considerable carcinogenic risk associated to aldrin, dieldrin, p,p'-DDT and β-endosulfan at certain studied sites. Therefore, the high levels of ecological risk and carcinogenic human health risk had emphasized an immediate elimination of ongoing OCPs addition in the studied area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A genetic risk score based on direct associations with coronary heart disease improves coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC), but not in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring, Studies.

PubMed

Brautbar, Ariel; Pompeii, Lisa A; Dehghan, Abbas; Ngwa, Julius S; Nambi, Vijay; Virani, Salim S; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Pencina, Michael J; Folsom, Aaron R; Cupples, L Adrienne; Ballantyne, Christie M; Boerwinkle, Eric

2012-08-01

Multiple studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We examined whether SNPs selected based on predefined criteria will improve CHD risk prediction when added to traditional risk factors (TRFs). SNPs were selected from the literature based on association with CHD, lack of association with a known CHD risk factor, and successful replication. A genetic risk score (GRS) was constructed based on these SNPs. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate CHD risk based on the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham CHD risk scores with and without the GRS. The GRS was associated with risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.13). Addition of the GRS to the ARIC risk score significantly improved discrimination, reclassification, and calibration beyond that afforded by TRFs alone in non-Hispanic whites in the ARIC study. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.742 to 0.749 (Δ = 0.007; 95% CI, 0.004-0.013), and the net reclassification index (NRI) was 6.3%. Although the risk estimates for CHD in the Framingham Offspring (HR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10-1.14) and Rotterdam (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14) Studies were significantly improved by adding the GRS to TRFs, improvements in AUC and NRI were modest. Addition of a GRS based on direct associations with CHD to TRFs significantly improved discrimination and reclassification in white participants of the ARIC Study, with no significant improvement in the Rotterdam and Framingham Offspring Studies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A risk score for predicting near-term incidence of hypertension: the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Parikh, Nisha I; Pencina, Michael J; Wang, Thomas J; Benjamin, Emelia J; Lanier, Katherine J; Levy, Daniel; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Kannel, William B; Vasan, Ramachandran S

2008-01-15

Studies suggest that targeting high-risk, nonhypertensive individuals for treatment may delay hypertension onset, thereby possibly mitigating vascular complications. Risk stratification may facilitate cost-effective approaches to management. To develop a simple risk score for predicting hypertension incidence by using measures readily obtained in the physician's office. Longitudinal cohort study. Framingham Heart Study, Framingham, Massachusetts. 1717 nonhypertensive white individuals 20 to 69 years of age (mean age, 42 years; 54% women), without diabetes and with both parents in the original cohort of the Framingham Heart Study, contributed 5814 person-examinations. Scores were developed for predicting the 1-, 2-, and 4-year risk for new-onset hypertension, and performance characteristics of the prediction algorithm were assessed by using calibration and discrimination measures. Parental hypertension was ascertained from examinations of the original cohort of the Framingham Heart Study. During follow-up (median time over all person-examinations, 3.8 years), 796 persons (52% women) developed new-onset hypertension. In multivariable analyses, age, sex, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, parental hypertension, and cigarette smoking were significant predictors of hypertension. According to the risk score based on these factors, the 4-year risk for incident hypertension was classified as low (<5%) in 34% of participants, medium (5% to 10%) in 19%, and high (>10%) in 47%. The c-statistic for the prediction model was 0.788, and calibration was very good. The risk score findings may not be generalizable to persons of nonwhite race or ethnicity or to persons with diabetes. The risk score algorithm has not been validated in an independent cohort and is based on single measurements of risk factors and blood pressure. The hypertension risk prediction score can be used to estimate an individual's absolute risk for hypertension on short-term follow-up, and it represents a simple, office-based tool that may facilitate management of high-risk individuals with prehypertension.

Reducing risk for mother-to-infant transmission of hepatitis C virus: a systematic review for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

PubMed

Cottrell, Erika Barth; Chou, Roger; Wasson, Ngoc; Rahman, Basmah; Guise, Jeanne-Marie

2013-01-15

Mother-to-infant transmission is the leading cause of childhood hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with up to 4000 new cases each year in the United States. To evaluate effects of mode of delivery, labor management strategies, and breastfeeding practices on risk for mother-to-infant transmission of HCV. MEDLINE (1947 to May 2012), the Cochrane Library Database, clinical trial registries, and reference lists. Randomized trials and observational studies on mode of delivery, labor management strategies, and breastfeeding practices and risk for mother-to-infant transmission of HCV. Investigators abstracted and reviewed study details and quality using predefined criteria. Eighteen observational studies evaluated the association between mode of delivery, labor management strategies, or breastfeeding practices and risk for mother-to-infant HCV transmission. Fourteen studies (2 good-quality, 4 fair-quality, and 8 poor-quality studies) found no clear association between mode of delivery (vaginal versus cesarean delivery) and risk for transmission. Two studies (1 good-quality and 1 poor-quality study) reported an association between prolonged duration of ruptured membranes and increased risk for transmission. Fourteen studies (2 good-quality, 2 fair-quality, and 10 poor-quality studies) found no association between breastfeeding and risk for transmission. Only English-language articles were included. Studies were observational, and most had important methodological shortcomings, including failure to adjust for potential confounders and small sample sizes. No intervention has been clearly demonstrated to reduce the risk for mother-to-infant HCV transmission. Avoidance of breastfeeding does not seem to be indicated for reducing transmission risk. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Risk Factors for Chronic Disease in Viet Nam: A Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Rao, Chalapati; Nhung, Nguyen Thi Trang; Marks, Geoffrey; Hoa, Nguyen Phuong

2013-01-01

Introduction Chronic diseases account for most of the disease burden in low- and middle-income countries, particularly those in Asia. We reviewed literature on chronic disease risk factors in Viet Nam to identify patterns and data gaps. Methods All population-based studies published from 2000 to 2012 that reported chronic disease risk factors were considered. We used standard chronic disease terminology to search PubMed and assessed titles, abstracts, and articles for eligibility for inclusion. We summarized relevant study information in tables listing available studies, risk factors measured, and the prevalence of these risk factors. Results We identified 23 studies conducted before 2010. The most common age range studied was 25 to 64 years. Sample sizes varied, and sample frames were national in 5 studies. A combination of behavioral, physical, and biological risk factors was studied. Being overweight or obese was the most common risk factor studied (n = 14), followed by high blood pressure (n = 11) and tobacco use (n = 10). Tobacco and alcohol use were high among men, and tobacco use may be increasing among Vietnamese women. High blood pressure is common; however, people’s knowledge that they have high blood pressure may be low. A high proportion of diets do not meet international criteria for fruit and vegetable consumption. Prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing. None of the studies evaluated measured dietary patterns or total caloric intake, and only 1 study measured dietary salt intake. Conclusion Risk factors for chronic diseases are common in Viet Nam; however, more recent and context-specific information is required for planning and monitoring interventions to reduce risk factors and chronic disease in this country. PMID:23306076

Adolescent Risk Behaviors and Religion: Findings from a National Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinha, Jill W.; Cnaan, Ram A.; Gelles, Richard J.

2007-01-01

Too few studies have assessed the relationship between youth risk behaviors and religiosity using measures which captured the varied extent to which youth are engaged in religion. This study applied three measures of religiosity and risk behaviors. In addition, this study ascertained information about youths' participation in religious activities…

Age Patterns in Risk Taking Across the World.

PubMed

Duell, Natasha; Steinberg, Laurence; Icenogle, Grace; Chein, Jason; Chaudhary, Nandita; Di Giunta, Laura; Dodge, Kenneth A; Fanti, Kostas A; Lansford, Jennifer E; Oburu, Paul; Pastorelli, Concetta; Skinner, Ann T; Sorbring, Emma; Tapanya, Sombat; Uribe Tirado, Liliana Maria; Alampay, Liane Peña; Al-Hassan, Suha M; Takash, Hanan M S; Bacchini, Dario; Chang, Lei

2018-05-01

Epidemiological data indicate that risk behaviors are among the leading causes of adolescent morbidity and mortality worldwide. Consistent with this, laboratory-based studies of age differences in risk behavior allude to a peak in adolescence, suggesting that adolescents demonstrate a heightened propensity, or inherent inclination, to take risks. Unlike epidemiological reports, studies of risk taking propensity have been limited to Western samples, leaving questions about the extent to which heightened risk taking propensity is an inherent or culturally constructed aspect of adolescence. In the present study, age patterns in risk-taking propensity (using two laboratory tasks: the Stoplight and the BART) and real-world risk taking (using self-reports of health and antisocial risk taking) were examined in a sample of 5227 individuals (50.7% female) ages 10-30 (M = 17.05 years, SD = 5.91) from 11 Western and non-Western countries (China, Colombia, Cyprus, India, Italy, Jordan, Kenya, the Philippines, Sweden, Thailand, and the US). Two hypotheses were tested: (1) risk taking follows an inverted-U pattern across age groups, peaking earlier on measures of risk taking propensity than on measures of real-world risk taking, and (2) age patterns in risk taking propensity are more consistent across countries than age patterns in real-world risk taking. Overall, risk taking followed the hypothesized inverted-U pattern across age groups, with health risk taking evincing the latest peak. Age patterns in risk taking propensity were more consistent across countries than age patterns in real-world risk taking. Results suggest that although the association between age and risk taking is sensitive to measurement and culture, around the world, risk taking is generally highest among late adolescents.

Perceived and actual risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in Korea: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Boo, Sunjoo; Froelicher, Erika S; Yun, Ju-Hui; Kim, Ye-Won; Jung, Ju-Yang; Suh, Chang-Hee

2016-10-01

The purposes of this study were to compare the perceived and actual 10-year risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to evaluate the influence of cardiovascular risk factors on perceived CVD risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Korea. Additionally, the attainment of CVD prevention guideline goals by 3 levels of CVD risk (low, moderate, and high) was presented.For this cross-sectional study, data were collected from 208 patients with RA. Actual CVD risk was estimated with the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and goal attainment was assessed based on the European League Against Rheumatism guidelines. Actual CVD risk and perceived risk were compared with cross-tabulation. Chi-square tests were used to evaluate differences in cardiovascular risk factors by perceived risk. Levels of goal attainment were presented in percentages.Among patients with RA, 13.9% were identified as being at high risk for CVD, whereas 39.9% were at moderate risk, and 46.2% were at low risk. The majority of those at high risk (96.6%) underestimated their risk for CVD. The use of antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medications and having a parental history of CVD significantly increased the likelihood that subjects with RA would perceive themselves as being at high risk for CVD. Diabetes, smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity did not affect perceived risk. A substantial proportion of the subjects with RA did not meet the prevention guideline goals.Patients with RA who are at increased risk of developing CVD must be managed as soon as possible to attain the guideline goals and, accordingly, lower their risk of future CVD.

HIV Risk Perception and Risky Behavior Among People Who Inject Drugs in Kermanshah, Western Iran.

PubMed

Noroozi, Mehdi; Ahounbar, Elahe; Karimi, Salah Eddin; Ahmadi, Sina; Najafi, Mohammad; Bazrafshan, Ali; Shushtari, Zahra Jorjoran; Farhadi, Mohammad Hassan; Higgs, Peter; Rezaei, Fatemeh; Ghiasvand, Hesam; Sharhani, Asaad; Armoon, Bahram; Waye, Katherine

2017-08-01

Understanding and increasing awareness on individual risk for HIV infection as well as HIV risk perception's effects on different behavioral outcomes for people who inject drugs (PWID) is important for policymaking and planning purposes. The objectives of the present study were to determine whether HIV risk perception was associated with greater injection and sexual risk-taking behaviors among PWIDs. We surveyed 460 PWID in Kermanshah regarding their demographic characteristics, sexual risk behaviors, HIV risk perception, and drug-related risk behaviors in the month prior to the study. Three classes of HIV risk perception were identified using ordinal regression to determine factors associated with HIV risk perception. Study participants were categorized as follows: "low" (n = 100, 22%), "moderate" (n = 150, 32%), and "high" (n = 210, 46%) risk perception for becoming infected with HIV. The odds of categorizing as "high" risk for HIV was significantly greater in PWID that reported unprotected sex (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.4, p value 0.02), receptive syringe sharing (AOR 1.8, p value 0.01), and multiple sex partners (AOR 1.4, p value 0.03). PWID who reported unprotected sex had 2.7 times the odds of "high" risk perception when compared to PWID with "low" risk perception. Findings show that PWID could rate their HIV risk with acceptable accuracy. Additionally, perceived HIV risk was associated with many risk factors for transmission of HIV, emphasizing the importance of developing targeted prevention and harm reduction programs for all domains of risk behaviors, both sexual and drug-related use.

Beyond Words: Amplification of Cancer Risk Communication on Social Media.

PubMed

Strekalova, Yulia A; Krieger, Janice L

2017-10-01

Social media provide a unique channel for disseminating evidence-based information to diverse audiences and organizational and private stakeholders, thus facilitating a dialog about health and health risks. Guided by the social amplification of risk framework, the goal of this study was to assess the level of audience engagement with messages posted on the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Facebook page and evaluate the differences in the audience information behavior toward risk-related and non-risk posts. Data included 1,975 posts published on the NCI Facebook page as well as the corresponding 4,537 comments, 77,298 shares, and 145,462 likes. Links and images were the top two most frequent types of content for both risk-related and non-risk posts, but risk-related messages were more amplified through comments, shares, and likes. Comparing the modality of risk-related messages, videos, contrary to the prediction, were not more effective in attracting audience engagement than images. Finally, comments to risk-related posts did not repeat risk-related language suggesting that future studies should examine risk signal recognition and dissemination as separate behaviors. This study's findings emphasize the importance of focused investigation of message design strategies and message effects on the dissemination and amplification of communication related to health risks.

Development of risk perception and substance use of tobacco, alcohol and cannabis among adolescents and emerging adults: evidence of directional influences.

PubMed

Grevenstein, Dennis; Nagy, Ede; Kroeninger-Jungaberle, Henrik

2015-02-01

While several studies have investigated the relationship between risk perception and substance use, surprisingly little is known about mutual influences between both variables over time. The present study aimed to explore two different hypotheses separately for tobacco, alcohol and cannabis: influences from risk perception on behavior (motivational hypothesis) and influences from behavior on risk perception (risk reappraisal hypothesis). A prospective and longitudinal cross-lagged panel design was used with substance use and risk perception measured five times over the course of 10 years. Participants were 318 German youths aged 14-15 at the beginning of the study. Risk perception and substance use frequency were measured using self-reports. Structural equation modeling indicated significant influences of risk perception on substance use behavior for all substances, which supports the motivational hypothesis. Changes in risk perception predict changes in future substance use of tobacco, alcohol and cannabis. Specifically for cannabis, influences of substance use on risk perception can also be shown, thus, supporting the risk reappraisal hypothesis. While there is support for the rationale behind adequate risk perception as a goal of preventive interventions, the possibility of risk reappraisal should not be neglected, especially regarding illicit substances.

Primordial Prevention of Cardiometabolic Risk in Childhood.

PubMed

Tanrikulu, Meryem A; Agirbasli, Mehmet; Berenson, Gerald

2017-01-01

Fetal life and childhood are important in the development of cardiometabolic risk and later clinical disease of atherosclerosis, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Molecular and environmental conditions leading to cardiometabolic risk in early life bring us a challenge to develop effective prevention and intervention strategies to reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk in children and later disease. It is important that prevention strategies begin at an early age to reduce future CV morbidity and mortality. Pioneering work from longitudinal studies such as Bogalusa Heart Study (BHS), the Finnish Youth Study and other programs provide an awareness of the need for public and health services to begin primordial prevention. The impending CV risk beginning in childhood has a significant socioeconomic burden. Directions to achieve primordial prevention of cardiometabolic risk in children have been developed by prior longitudinal studies. Based on those studies that show risk factors in childhood as precursors of adult CV risk, implementation of primordial prevention will have effects at broad levels. Considering the epidemic of obesity, the high prevalence of hypertension and cardiometabolic risk, prevention early in life is valuable. Comprehensive health education, such as 'Health Ahead/Heart Smart', for all elementary school age children is one approach to begin primordial prevention and can be included in public education beginning in kindergarten along with the traditional education subject matter.

The relation between risk perceptions and physical activity among older adults: a prospective study.

PubMed

Stephan, Yannick; Boiche, Julie; Trouilloud, David; Deroche, Thomas; Sarrazin, Philippe

2011-07-01

Past studies have found that risk perceptions of suffering from diseases play an important role in the development of intentions to perform physical activity (PA). According to the behaviour motivation hypothesis, perceived risk could be positively and directly related to PA, but this possibility has been ignored and/or underestimated. Accounting for recent methodological developments on the importance of study design and risk perception assessment, the purpose of the present study was to examine the risk-perceptions-PA relationship among older adults. Participants (N=143) aged from 61 to 70 years initially underwent measurement of risk perceptions, baseline PA, socio-demographic and health factors. Six months later, they were asked about their PA participation. Multiple regression analyses revealed that perceived risk of suffering from diseases and conditions without regular PA participation was an independent positive predictor of later PA, over and beyond baseline behaviour, socio-demographic and health variables. This study fills a gap in the existing literature on the PAs of older adults and reveals that risk perceptions are directly linked to their participation. In addition, it extends existing knowledge in health psychology on the behaviour motivation hypothesis, and emphasises the necessity of methodological adjustments when assessing the risk-perception-behaviour relationship. © 2011 Taylor & Francis

Variables Affecting Emerging Adults' Self-Reported Risk and Reckless Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duangpatra, Krisna N. K.; Bradley, Graham L.; Glendon, A. Ian

2009-01-01

Young adults' behaviors are frequently characterized by risk-taking and recklessness. Few studies have examined the correlates of risk and reckless behaviors in emerging adults. Drawing on theories emphasising multifactorial effects of personality, social, and cognitive variables, this study explores psychosocial factors contributing to risk and…

A Comparative Study of Adolescent Risk Assessment Instruments: Predictive and Incremental Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welsh, Jennifer L.; Schmidt, Fred; McKinnon, Lauren; Chattha, H. K.; Meyers, Joanna R.

2008-01-01

Promising new adolescent risk assessment tools are being incorporated into clinical practice but currently possess limited evidence of predictive validity regarding their individual and/or combined use in risk assessments. The current study compares three structured adolescent risk instruments, Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory…

Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China

PubMed Central

Li, Shasha; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Fan, Chenjing; Wu, Yunqing; Ren, Chongqiang

2017-01-01

Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual’s earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded. PMID:28272359

Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China.

PubMed

Li, Shasha; Zhai, Guofang; Zhou, Shutian; Fan, Chenjing; Wu, Yunqing; Ren, Chongqiang

2017-03-07

Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual's earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

Stroke Risk Perception in Atrial Fibrillation Patients is not Associated with Clinical Stroke Risk.

PubMed

Fournaise, Anders; Skov, Jane; Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Leppin, Anja

2015-11-01

Clinical risk stratification models, such as the CHA2DS2-VASc, are used to assess stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. No study has yet investigated whether and to which extent these patients have a realistic perception of their personal stroke risk. The purpose of this study was to investigate and describe the association between AF patients' stroke risk perception and clinical stroke risk. In an observational cross-sectional study design, we surveyed 178 AF patients with a mean age of 70.6 years (SD 8.3) in stable anticoagulant treatment (65% treatment duration >12 months). Clinical stroke risk was scored through the CHA2DS2-VASc, and patients rated their perceived personal stroke risk on a 7-point Likert scale. There was no significant association between clinical stroke risk assessment and patients' stroke risk perception (rho = .025; P = .741). Approximately 60% of the high-risk patients had an unrealistic perception of their own stroke risk, and there was no significant increase in risk perception from those with a lower compared with a higher risk factor load (χ(2) = .010; P = .522). Considering possible negative implications in terms of lack of motivation for lifestyle behavior change and adequate adherence to the treatment and monitoring of vitamin K antagonist, the apparent underestimation of risk by large subgroups warrants attention and needs further investigation with regard to possible behavioral consequences. Copyright © 2015 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneous Risk Perceptions: The Case of Poultry Meat Purchase Intentions in Finland

PubMed Central

Heikkilä, Jaakko; Pouta, Eija; Forsman-Hugg, Sari; Mäkelä, Johanna

2013-01-01

This study focused on the heterogeneity of consumer reactions, measured through poultry meat purchase intentions, when facing three cases of risk. The heterogeneity was analysed by latent class logistic regression that included all three risk cases. Approximately 60% of the respondents belonged to the group of production risk avoiders, in which the intention to purchase risk food was significantly lower than in the second group of risk neutrals. In addition to socio-demographic variables, the purchase intentions were statistically associated with several attitude-based variables. We highlighted some policy implications of the heterogeneity. Overall, the study demonstrated that risk matters to consumers, not all risk is equal, and consumer types react somewhat differently to different types of risk. PMID:24157513

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

1995-01-01

Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

Predicting Geriatric Falls Following an Episode of Emergency Department Care: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Christopher R.; Avidan, Michael S.; Wildes, Tanya; Stark, Susan; Fowler, Susan A.; Lo, Alexander X.

2015-01-01

Background Falls are the leading cause of traumatic mortality in geriatric adults. Despite recent multispecialty guideline recommendations that advocate for proactive fall prevention protocols in the emergency department (ED), the ability of risk factors or risk stratification instruments to identify subsets of geriatric patients at increased risk for short-term falls is largely unexplored. Objectives This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of ED-based history, physical examination, and fall risk stratification instruments with the primary objective of providing a quantitative estimate for each risk factor’s accuracy to predict future falls. A secondary objective was to quantify ED fall risk assessment test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity. Methods A medical librarian and two emergency physicians (EPs) conducted a medical literature search of PUBMED, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, DARE, the Cochrane Registry, and Clinical Trials. Unpublished research was located by a hand search of emergency medicine (EM) research abstracts from national meetings. Inclusion criteria for original studies included ED-based assessment of pre-ED or post-ED fall risk in patients 65 years and older with sufficient detail to reproduce contingency tables for meta-analysis. Original study authors were contacted for additional details when necessary. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) was used to assess individual study quality for those studies that met inclusion criteria. When more than one qualitatively similar study assessed the same risk factor for falls at the same interval following an ED evaluation, then meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for fall risk factors or risk stratification instruments. Secondary outcomes included estimates of test and treatment thresholds using the Pauker method based on accuracy, screening risk, and the projected benefits or harms of fall prevention interventions in the ED. Results A total of 608 unique and potentially relevant studies were identified, but only three met our inclusion criteria. Two studies that included 660 patients assessed 29 risk factors and two risk stratification instruments for falls in geriatric patients in the 6 months following an ED evaluation, while one study of 107 patients assessed the risk of falls in the preceding 12 months. A self-report of depression was associated with the highest positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41 to 30.48). Six fall predictors were identified in more than one study (past falls, living alone, use of walking aid, depression, cognitive deficit, and more than six medications) and meta-analysis was performed for these risk factors. One screening instrument was sufficiently accurate to identify a subset of geriatric ED patients at low risk for falls with a negative LR of 0.11 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.20). The test threshold was 6.6% and the treatment threshold was 27.5%. Conclusions This study demonstrates the paucity of evidence in the literature regarding ED-based screening for risk of future falls among older adults. The screening tools and individual characteristics identified in this study provide an evidentiary basis on which to develop screening protocols for geriatrics adults in the ED to reduce fall risk PMID:25293956

Predicting geriatric falls following an episode of emergency department care: a systematic review.

PubMed

Carpenter, Christopher R; Avidan, Michael S; Wildes, Tanya; Stark, Susan; Fowler, Susan A; Lo, Alexander X

2014-10-01

Falls are the leading cause of traumatic mortality in geriatric adults. Despite recent multispecialty guideline recommendations that advocate for proactive fall prevention protocols in the emergency department (ED), the ability of risk factors or risk stratification instruments to identify subsets of geriatric patients at increased risk for short-term falls is largely unexplored. This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of ED-based history, physical examination, and fall risk stratification instruments with the primary objective of providing a quantitative estimate for each risk factor's accuracy to predict future falls. A secondary objective was to quantify ED fall risk assessment test and treatment thresholds using derived estimates of sensitivity and specificity. A medical librarian and two emergency physicians (EPs) conducted a medical literature search of PUBMED, EMBASE, CINAHL, CENTRAL, DARE, the Cochrane Registry, and Clinical Trials. Unpublished research was located by a hand search of emergency medicine (EM) research abstracts from national meetings. Inclusion criteria for original studies included ED-based assessment of pre-ED or post-ED fall risk in patients 65 years and older with sufficient detail to reproduce contingency tables for meta-analysis. Original study authors were contacted for additional details when necessary. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) was used to assess individual study quality for those studies that met inclusion criteria. When more than one qualitatively similar study assessed the same risk factor for falls at the same interval following an ED evaluation, then meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software. The primary outcomes were sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios for fall risk factors or risk stratification instruments. Secondary outcomes included estimates of test and treatment thresholds using the Pauker method based on accuracy, screening risk, and the projected benefits or harms of fall prevention interventions in the ED. A total of 608 unique and potentially relevant studies were identified, but only three met our inclusion criteria. Two studies that included 660 patients assessed 29 risk factors and two risk stratification instruments for falls in geriatric patients in the 6 months following an ED evaluation, while one study of 107 patients assessed the risk of falls in the preceding 12 months. A self-report of depression was associated with the highest positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 6.55 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41 to 30.48). Six fall predictors were identified in more than one study (past falls, living alone, use of walking aid, depression, cognitive deficit, and more than six medications) and meta-analysis was performed for these risk factors. One screening instrument was sufficiently accurate to identify a subset of geriatric ED patients at low risk for falls with a negative LR of 0.11 (95% CI = 0.06 to 0.20). The test threshold was 6.6% and the treatment threshold was 27.5%. This study demonstrates the paucity of evidence in the literature regarding ED-based screening for risk of future falls among older adults. The screening tools and individual characteristics identified in this study provide an evidentiary basis on which to develop screening protocols for geriatrics adults in the ED to reduce fall risk. © 2014 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Protective and risk behaviors of rural minority adolescent women.

PubMed

Champion, Jane Dimmitt; Kelly, Pat

2002-01-01

Studies of adolescent risk and protective behaviors have focused on identifying modifiable psychosocial variables that predict differential outcomes for subsequent intervention efforts. Research has been scarce in studies of rural minority adolescent women. This study examined the protective and risk behaviors of these women and their relationship to physical or sexual abuse. Rural minority adolescent women endured high levels of psychological distress and many high risk behaviors, yet experienced many protective behaviors. Barriers to health care included access and confidentiality. Physically or sexually abused adolescents endured relatively greater risk and fewer protective behaviors than nonabused adolescents. The prevalence of risk behaviors and abuse among rural minority adolescent women presents a need for development of psychotherapeutic interventions as part of behavioral interventions for risk reduction. These women may benefit from confidential identification and assessment of abuse history and risk and protective behaviors so that appropriate psychological treatment can accompany accessible medical treatment.

Perception of risks from electromagnetic fields: A psychometric evaluation of a risk-communication approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacGregor, D.G.; Slovic, P.; Morgan, M.G.

Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reaching the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs aboutmore » the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed. 19 refs., 1 fig., 11 tabs.« less

Clinical validation of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration among patients who experienced a cerebrovascular accident.

PubMed

Cavalcante, Tahissa Frota; de Araújo, Thelma Leite; Moreira, Rafaella Pessoa; Guedes, Nirla Gomes; Lopes, Marcos Venicios de Oliveira; da Silva, Viviane Martins

2013-01-01

the study's objective was the clinical validation of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration among patients who experienced cerebrovascular accidents (CVA). a prospective cohort study was conducted with 24 patients hospitalized due to a CVA. The instrument used to collect the data addressed the risk factors for respiratory aspiration, validated by concept analysis and by experts. the most frequent risk factors for respiratory aspiration were: dysphagia (54.2%) and impaired physical mobility (41.7%). The prevalence of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration was 58.3% and the prevalence of respiratory aspiration over the span of 48 hours (monitoring period) was 37.5%. Risk factors for dysphagia and impaired physical mobility were significantly associated with respiratory aspiration. the risk factors dysphagia and impaired physical mobility are good predictors of the nursing diagnosis Risk for Aspiration. This study contributed to improving the NANDA-I Taxonomy and the systematization of the nursing process.

Association Between Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Rotator Cuff Tendinopathy: A Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Applegate, Kara Arnold; Thiese, Matthew S; Merryweather, Andrew S; Kapellusch, Jay; Drury, David L; Wood, Eric; Kendall, Richard; Foster, James; Garg, Arun; Hegmann, Kurt T

2017-02-01

Recent evidence has found potential associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and common musculoskeletal disorders. We evaluated possible associations between risk factors and both glenohumeral joint pain and rotator cuff tendinopathy. Data from WISTAH hand study participants (n = 1226) were assessed for associations between Framingham Heart Study CVD risk factors and both health outcomes. A strong association was observed between CVD risk scores and both glenohumeral joint pain and rotator cuff tendinopathy. Peak odds ratios (ORs) of the adjusted models were 4.55 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.97 to 10.31] and 5.97 (95% CI 2.12 to 16.83), respectively. The results show a dose-response trend of increasing risk. Individual risk factors were associated with both outcomes. Combined, CVD risk factors demonstrated a strong correlation with glenohumeral joint pain and an even stronger correlation with rotator cuff tendinopathy. Results suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism.

From Correlates to Causes: Can Quasi-Experimental Studies and Statistical Innovations Bring Us Closer to Identifying the Causes of Antisocial Behavior?

PubMed Central

Jaffee, Sara R.; Strait, Luciana B.; Odgers, Candice L.

2011-01-01

Longitudinal, epidemiological studies have identified robust risk factors for youth antisocial behavior, including harsh and coercive discipline, maltreatment, smoking during pregnancy, divorce, teen parenthood, peer deviance, parental psychopathology, and social disadvantage. Nevertheless, because this literature is largely based on observational studies, it remains unclear whether these risk factors have truly causal effects. Identifying causal risk factors for antisocial behavior would be informative for intervention efforts and for studies that test whether individuals are differentially susceptible to risk exposures. In this paper, we identify the challenges to causal inference posed by observational studies and describe quasi-experimental methods and statistical innovations that may move us beyond discussions of risk factors to allow for stronger causal inference. We then review studies that use these methods and we evaluate whether robust risk factors identified from observational studies are likely to play a causal role in the emergence and development of youth antisocial behavior. For most of the risk factors we review, there is evidence that they have causal effects. However, these effects are typically smaller than those reported in observational studies, suggesting that familial confounding, social selection, and misidentification might also explain some of the association between risk exposures and antisocial behavior. For some risk factors (e.g., smoking during pregnancy, parent alcohol problems) the evidence is weak that they have environmentally mediated effects on youth antisocial behavior. We discuss the implications of these findings for intervention efforts to reduce antisocial behavior and for basic research on the etiology and course of antisocial behavior. PMID:22023141

From correlates to causes: can quasi-experimental studies and statistical innovations bring us closer to identifying the causes of antisocial behavior?

PubMed

Jaffee, Sara R; Strait, Luciana B; Odgers, Candice L

2012-03-01

Longitudinal, epidemiological studies have identified robust risk factors for youth antisocial behavior, including harsh and coercive discipline, maltreatment, smoking during pregnancy, divorce, teen parenthood, peer deviance, parental psychopathology, and social disadvantage. Nevertheless, because this literature is largely based on observational studies, it remains unclear whether these risk factors have truly causal effects. Identifying causal risk factors for antisocial behavior would be informative for intervention efforts and for studies that test whether individuals are differentially susceptible to risk exposures. In this article, we identify the challenges to causal inference posed by observational studies and describe quasi-experimental methods and statistical innovations that may move researchers beyond discussions of risk factors to allow for stronger causal inference. We then review studies that used these methods, and we evaluate whether robust risk factors identified from observational studies are likely to play a causal role in the emergence and development of youth antisocial behavior. There is evidence of causal effects for most of the risk factors we review. However, these effects are typically smaller than those reported in observational studies, suggesting that familial confounding, social selection, and misidentification might also explain some of the association between risk exposures and antisocial behavior. For some risk factors (e.g., smoking during pregnancy, parent alcohol problems), the evidence is weak that they have environmentally mediated effects on youth antisocial behavior. We discuss the implications of these findings for intervention efforts to reduce antisocial behavior and for basic research on the etiology and course of antisocial behavior.

Use of benzodiazepine and risk of cancer: A meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Kim, Hong-Bae; Myung, Seung-Kwon; Park, Yon Chul; Park, Byoungjin

2017-02-01

Several observational epidemiological studies have reported inconsistent results on the association between the use of benzodiazepine and the risk of cancer. We investigated the association by using a meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the bibliographies of relevant articles to locate additional publications in January 2016. Three evaluators independently reviewed and selected eligible studies based on predetermined selection criteria. Of 796 articles meeting our initial criteria, a total of 22 observational epidemiological studies with 18 case-control studies and 4 cohort studies were included in the final analysis. Benzodiazepine use was significantly associated with an increased risk of cancer (odds ratio [OR] or relative risk [RR] 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.21) in a random-effects meta-analysis of all studies. Subgroup meta-analyses by various factors such as study design, type of case-control study, study region, and methodological quality of study showed consistent findings. Also, a significant dose-response relationship was observed between the use of benzodiazepine and the risk of cancer (p for trend <0.01). The current meta-analysis of observational epidemiological studies suggests that benzodiazepine use is associated with an increased risk of cancer. © 2016 UICC.

Risk assessment for juvenile justice: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schwalbe, Craig S

2007-10-01

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.

Spatial variation in mortality risk for haematological malignancies near a petrochemical refinery: a population-based case-control study

PubMed Central

Di Salvo, Francesca; Meneghini, Elisabetta; Vieira, Veronica; Baili, Paolo; Mariottini, Mauro; Baldini, Marco; Micheli, Andrea; Sant, Milena

2015-01-01

Introduction The study investigated the geographic variation of mortality risk for hematological malignancies (HMs) in order to identify potential high-risk areas near an Italian petrochemical refinery. Material and methods A population-based case-control study was conducted and residential histories for 171 cases and 338 sex- and age-matched controls were collected. Confounding factors were obtained from interviews with consenting relatives for 109 HM deaths and 267 controls. To produce risk mortality maps, two different approaches were applied. We mapped (1) adptive kernel density relative risk estimation (KDE) for case-control studies which estimates a spatial relative risk function using the ratio between cases and controls’ densities, and (2) estimated odds ratios for case-control study data using generalized additive models (GAMs) to smooth the effect of location, a proxy for exposure, while adjusting for confounding variables. Results No high-risk areas for HM mortality were identified among all subjects (men and women combined), by applying both approaches. Using the adaptive KDE approach, we found a significant increase in death risk only among women in a large area 2–6 km southeast of the refinery and the application of GAMs also identified a similarly-located significant high-risk area among women only (global p-value<0.025). Potential confounding risk factors we considered in the GAM did not alter the results. Conclusion Both approaches identified a high-risk area close to the refinery among women only. Those spatial methods are useful tools for public policy management to determine priority areas for intervention. Our findings suggest several directions for further research in order to identify other potential environmental exposures that may be assessed in forthcoming studies based on detailed exposure modeling. PMID:26073202

The risk of coronary heart disease of seafarers on vessels sailing under a German flag.

PubMed

Oldenburg, Marcus; Jensen, Hans-Joachim; Latza, Ute; Baur, Xaver

2010-01-01

This study aimed to predict the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) among seafarers on German-flagged vessels and to assess the association of shipboard job duration at sea with the risk of CHD. During the legally required medical fitness test for nautical service, 161 seafarers in Hamburg participated in a cross-sectional study which included an interview, blood sampling, and blood pressure measurements (response 84.9%). The predicted 10-year risk of an acute coronary event of the examined German seafarers aged 35 to 64 years (n = 46) was assessed in comparison with a sample of male German employees of the same age working ashore (PROCAM study). The number of independent CHD risk factors (according to the PROCAM study) was compared in the groups with 'shorter' and 'longer' median shipboard job duration at sea (15.0 years). The examined German seafarers had a similar age-standardized predicted 10-year CHD risk as the German reference population. Nearly all independent CHD risk factors were significantly more frequent in seamen with job duration at sea of ≥ 15 years than in those with 〈 15 years. After adjusting for age, the number of CHD risk factors was associated with job duration (OR 1.08 [95% CI 1.02-1.14] per year). Seafarers on German-flagged ships have to attend a medical fitness test for nautical service every 2 years. Thus, it can be assumed that seafarers present a healthier population than employees ashore. In this study, however, CHD risk of seafarers was similar to that of the reference population. This may indicate that working onboard implies a high coronary risk. Furthermore, the study results suggest a tendency of increased risk of CHD among seafarers with longer job duration at sea.

Investigation of established genetic risk variants for glioma in prediagnostic samples from a population-based nested case-control study.

PubMed

Wibom, Carl; Späth, Florentin; Dahlin, Anna M; Langseth, Hilde; Hovig, Eivind; Rajaraman, Preetha; Johannesen, Tom Børge; Andersson, Ulrika; Melin, Beatrice

2015-05-01

Although glioma etiology is poorly understood in general, growing evidence indicates a genetic component. Four large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have linked common genetic variants with an increased glioma risk. However, to date, these studies are based largely on a case-control design, where cases have been recruited at the time of or after diagnosis. They may therefore suffer from a degree of survival bias, introduced when rapidly fatal cases are not included. To confirm glioma risk variants in a prospective setting, we have analyzed 11 previously identified risk variants in a set of prediagnostic serum samples with 598 cases and 595 matched controls. Serum samples were acquired from The Janus Serum Bank, a Norwegian population-based biobank reserved for cancer research. We confirmed the association with glioma risk for variants within five genomic regions: 8q24.21 (CCDC26), 9p21.3 (CDKN2B-AS1), 11q23.3 (PHLDB1), 17p13.1 (TP53), and 20q13.33 (RTEL1). However, previously identified risk variants within the 7p11.2 (EGFR) region were not confirmed by this study. Our results indicate that the risk variants that were confirmed by this study are truly associated with glioma risk and may, consequently, affect gliomagenesis. Though the lack of positive confirmation of EGFR risk variants may be attributable to relatively limited statistical power, it nevertheless raises the question whether they truly are risk variants or markers for glioma prognosis. Our findings indicate the need for further studies to clarify the role of glioma risk loci with respect to prolonged survival versus etiology. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still relatively undeveloped in several key topic areas including cancers other than breast and in specific populations. Future rigorous risk perception research using experimental designs and focused on cancers other than breast would advance the field. PMID:21595959

Perceived Risk towards Mobile Banking: A case study of Malaysia Young Adulthood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuhidan, Shuhaida Mohamed; Rahah Hamidi, Saidatul; Syazwani Saleh, Intan

2017-08-01

The advancement of technology and the raise of smart devices ownership in Malaysia has eventually increase the exploration of mobile banking services. Mobile banking has been first commercialized in Malaysia on 2005 and expected to growth. Despite the exponential growth, the mobile banking penetration rate is slow compared to online banking. This study aims to highlight the issues and challenges of mobile banking and to have insight on young adulthood perceived risk towards mobile banking, specifically in Malaysia. In order to support the exploratory study, these risks are surveyed in quantitative study conducted among young adulthood in Malaysia. The self-administered questionnaire distributed through email with 384 respondents indicated that the most impacted facets perceiveed risks are performance risk, following by security risk. The results of this study can be used by the practitioner to address the customer challenges, customer interest and concern for mobile banking service improvement.

Application of receptor-specific risk distribution in the arsenic contaminated land management.

PubMed

Chen, I-chun; Ng, Shane; Wang, Gen-shuh; Ma, Hwong-wen

2013-11-15

Concerns over health risks and financial costs have caused difficulties in the management of arsenic contaminated land in Taiwan. Inflexible risk criteria and lack of economic support often result in failure of a brownfields regeneration project. To address the issue of flexible risk criteria, this study is aimed to develop maps with receptor-specific risk distribution to facilitate scenario analysis of contaminated land management. A contaminated site risk map model (ArcGIS for risk assessment and management, abbreviated as Arc-RAM) was constructed by combining the four major steps of risk assessment with Geographic Information Systems. Sampling of contaminated media, survey of exposure attributes, and modeling of multimedia transport were integrated to produce receptor group-specific maps that depicted the probabilistic spatial distribution of risks of various receptor groups. Flexible risk management schemes can then be developed and assessed. In this study, a risk management program that took into account the ratios of various land use types at specified risk levels was explored. A case study of arsenic contaminated land of 6.387 km(2) has found that for a risk value between 1.00E-05 and 1.00E-06, the proposed flexible risk management of agricultural land achieves improved utilization of land. Using this method, the investigated case can reduce costs related to compensation for farmland totaling approximately NTD 5.94 million annually. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advanced maternal age and risk perception: A qualitative study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Advanced maternal age (AMA) is associated with several adverse pregnancy outcomes, hence these pregnancies are considered to be “high risk.” A review of the empirical literature suggests that it is not clear how women of AMA evaluate their pregnancy risk. This study aimed to address this gap by exploring the risk perception of pregnant women of AMA. Methods A qualitative descriptive study was undertaken to obtain a rich and detailed source of explanatory data regarding perceived pregnancy risk of 15 women of AMA. The sample was recruited from a variety of settings in Winnipeg, Canada. In-depth interviews were conducted with nulliparous women aged 35 years or older, in their third trimester, and with singleton pregnancies. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim, and content analysis was used to identify themes and categories. Results Four main themes emerged: definition of pregnancy risk, factors influencing risk perception, risk alleviation strategies, and risk communication with health professionals. Conclusions Several factors may influence women's perception of pregnancy risk including medical risk, psychological elements, characteristics of the risk, stage of pregnancy, and health care provider’s opinion. Understanding these influential factors may help health professionals who care for pregnant women of AMA to gain insight into their perspectives on pregnancy risk and improve the effectiveness of risk communication strategies with this group. PMID:22988825

Perception of recurrent stroke risk among black, white and Hispanic ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack survivors: the SWIFT study.

PubMed

Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Carman, Heather; Moran, Megan; Doyle, Margaret; Paik, Myunghee C

2011-01-01

Risk modification through behavior change is critical for primary and secondary stroke prevention. Theories of health behavior identify perceived risk as an important component to facilitate behavior change; however, little is known about perceived risk of vascular events among stroke survivors. The SWIFT (Stroke Warning Information and Faster Treatment) study includes a prospective population-based ethnically diverse cohort of ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack survivors. We investigate the baseline relationship between demographics, health beliefs, and knowledge on risk perception. Regression models examined predictors of inaccurate perception. Only 20% accurately estimated risk, 10% of the participants underestimated risk, and 70% of the 817 study participants significantly overestimated their risk for a recurrent stroke. The mean perceived likelihood of recurrent ischemic stroke in the next 10 years was 51 ± 7%. We found no significant differences by race-ethnicity with regard to accurate estimation of risk. Inaccurate estimation of risk was associated with attitudes and beliefs [worry (p < 0.04), fatalism (p < 0.07)] and memory problems (p < 0.01), but not history or knowledge of vascular risk factors. This paper provides a unique perspective on how factors such as belief systems influence risk perception in a diverse population at high stroke risk. There is a need for future research on how risk perception can inform primary and secondary stroke prevention. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Risk factors for depression in community-treated epilepsy: systematic review.

PubMed

Lacey, Cameron J; Salzberg, Michael R; D'Souza, Wendyl J

2015-02-01

Depression is one of the most common psychiatric comorbidities in epilepsy; however, the factors contributing to this association remain unclear. There is a growing consensus that methodological limitations, particularly selection bias, affect many of the original studies. A systematic review focussed on community-based studies offers an alternative approach for the identification of the risk factors for depression. Searches were performed in MEDLINE (Ovid), 2000 to 31 December 2013, EMBASE, and Google Scholar to identify studies examining risk factors for depression in epilepsy. Community-based studies of adults with epilepsy that reported at least one risk factor for depression were included. The search identified 17 studies that met selection criteria, representing a combined total of 12,212 people with epilepsy with a mean sample size of 718. The most consistent risk factors for depression were sociodemographic factors, despite the fact that most studies focus on epilepsy-related factors. Most studies lacked a systematic conceptual approach to investigating depression, and few risk factors were consistently well studied. Future community-based studies require a detailed systematic approach to improve the ability to detect risk factors for depression in epilepsy. Psychological factors were rarely studied in community-based samples with epilepsy, although the consistent association with depression in the few studies that did suggests this warrants further examination. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

PubMed

Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

2011-07-01

In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder to improve risk understanding by low numerates: a study of visual attention.

PubMed

Keller, Carmen

2011-07-01

Previous experimental research provides evidence that a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder is understood by low- and high-numerate individuals. It especially helps low numerates to better evaluate risk. In the present study, an eye tracker was used to capture individuals' visual attention to a familiar risk comparison, such as the risk associated with smoking. Two parameters of information processing-efficiency and level-were derived from visual attention. A random sample of participants from the general population (N= 68) interpreted a given risk level with the help of the risk ladder. Numeracy was negatively correlated with overall visual attention on the risk ladder (r(s) =-0.28, p= 0.01), indicating that the lower the numeracy, the more the time spent looking at the whole risk ladder. Numeracy was positively correlated with the efficiency of processing relevant frequency (r(s) = 0.34, p < 0.001) and relevant textual information (r(s) = 0.34, p < 0.001), but not with the efficiency of processing relevant comparative information and numerical information. There was a significant negative correlation between numeracy and the level of processing of relevant comparative risk information (r(s) =-0.21, p < 0.01), indicating that low numerates processed the comparative risk information more deeply than the high numerates. There was no correlation between numeracy and perceived risk. These results add to previous experimental research, indicating that the smoking risk comparison was crucial for low numerates to evaluate and understand risk. Furthermore, the eye-tracker method is promising for studying information processing and improving risk communication formats. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

The socio-spatial context as a risk factor for hospitalization due to mental illness in the metropolitan areas of Portugal.

PubMed

Loureiro, Adriana; Costa, Cláudia; Almendra, Ricardo; Freitas, Ângela; Santana, Paula

2015-11-01

This study's aims are: (i) identifying spatial patterns for the risk of hospitalization due to mental illness and for the potential risk resulting from contextual factors with influence on mental health; and (ii) analyzing the spatial association between risk of hospitalization due to mental illness and potential risk resulting from contextual factors in the metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto, Portugal. A cross-sectional ecological study was conducted by applying statistical methods for assessing spatial dependency and heterogeneity. Results reveal a spatial association between risk of hospitalization due to mental illness and potential risk resulting from contextual factors with a statistical relevance of moderate intensity. 20% of the population under study lives in areas with a simultaneously high potential risk resulting from contextual factors and risk of hospitalization due to mental illness. Porto Metropolitan Area show the highest percentage of population living in parishes with a significantly high risk of hospitalization due to mental health, which puts forward the need for interventions on territory-adjusted contextual factors influencing mental health.

Risk perception measures' associations with behavior intentions, affect, and cognition following colon cancer screening messages.

PubMed

Dillard, Amanda J; Ferrer, Rebecca A; Ubel, Peter A; Fagerlin, Angela

2012-01-01

Risk perception is important for motivating health behavior (e.g., Janz & Becker, 1984), but different measures of the construct may change how important that relationship appears. In two studies, we examined associations between four measures of risk perception, health behavior intentions and possible behavioral determinants. Participants in these studies, who were due for colorectal cancer screening, read an online message about the importance of screening to reduce the chance of cancer. We examined bivariate and multivariate associations between risk perception measures, including absolute, comparative, and feelings-of-risk, and behavioral intentions to screen, general worry, and knowledge and attitudes related to screening. Results across the two studies were consistent, with all risk perception measures being correlated with intentions and attitudes. Multivariate analyses revealed that feelings-of-risk was most predictive of all variables, with the exception of general worry, for which comparative measures were the most predictive. Researchers interested in risk perception should assess feelings-of-risk along with more traditional measures. Those interested in influencing health behavior specifically should attempt to increase feelings of vulnerability rather than numerical risk.

Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchbinder, Ben

1993-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

Astronaut Biography Project for Countermeasures of Human Behavior and Performance Risks in Long Duration Space Flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, Akeem

2012-01-01

This final report will summarize research that relates to human behavioral health and performance of astronauts and flight controllers. Literature reviews, data archival analyses, and ground-based analog studies that center around the risk of human space flight are being used to help mitigate human behavior and performance risks from long duration space flights. A qualitative analysis of an astronaut autobiography was completed. An analysis was also conducted on exercise countermeasure publications to show the positive affects of exercise on the risks targeted in this study. The three main risks targeted in this study are risks of behavioral and psychiatric disorders, risks of performance errors due to poor team performance, cohesion, and composition, and risks of performance errors due to sleep deprivation, circadian rhythm. These three risks focus on psychological and physiological aspects of astronauts who venture out into space on long duration space missions. The purpose of this research is to target these risks in order to help quantify, identify, and mature countermeasures and technologies required in preventing or mitigating adverse outcomes from exposure to the spaceflight environment

Associations between Vitamin D Status, Supplementation, Outdoor Work and Risk of Parkinson's Disease: A Meta-Analysis Assessment.

PubMed

Shen, Liang; Ji, Hong-Fang

2015-06-15

The present study aimed to quantitatively assess the associations between vitamin D and Parkinson's Disease (PD) risks, which include: (i) risk of PD in subjects with deficient and insufficient vitamin D levels; (ii) association between vitamin D supplementation and risk of PD; and (iii) association between outdoor work and PD risk, through meta-analyzing available data. An electronic literature search supplemented by hand searching up to March 2015 identified seven eligible studies comprising 5690 PD patients and 21251 matched controls. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of PD risk were assessed through pooling the collected data from eligible studies using Stata software. Pooled data showed that subjects with deficient and insufficient vitamin D levels had increased PD risks compared with matched-controls according to the corresponding OR: 2.08, 95% CI: 1.63 to 2.65, and 1.29, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.51. Vitamin D supplementation was associated with significantly reduced risk of PD (OR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.35 to 0.90). Outdoor work was also related to reduced risk of PD (OR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.81). The findings may stimulate larger, well-designed studies to further verify the associations between vitamin D and PD risk.

Multicentre, Prospective Observational Study of Pegfilgrastim Primary Prophylaxis in Patients at High Risk of Febrile Neutropenia in Poland: PROFIL Study

PubMed Central

Jurczak, Wojciech; Kalinka-Warzocha, Ewa; Chmielowska, Ewa; Duchnowska, Renata; Wojciechowska-Lampka, Elzbieta

2015-01-01

Aim of the study PROFIL was a prospective observational study conducted to investigate physicians’ evaluation of febrile neutropenia (FN) risk and reasons for giving pegfilgrastim primary prophylaxis (PP) in routine clinical practice in Poland. Material and methods Adult cancer patients treated with chemotherapy (CT), assessed by investigators as having high overall FN risk, and who received pegfilgrastim in cycle 1 were enrolled between 03/2009 and 09/2010. Investigators assessed FN risk of the CT regimen, individual risk factors, and overall FN risk, and were asked to provide the most important reasons for providing pegfilgrastim PP. Investigator-assessed CT FN risk was compared with guideline classification. Results Data were analysed from 1006 breast, ovarian, and lung cancer, and non-Hodgkin (NHL) and Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients. The most important reasons for using pegfilgrastim PP were high CT FN risk and advanced disease; these were consistent across tumour types and treatment intent. The investigators generally assessed high CT FN risk in agreement with guideline classification. Febrile neutropenia occurred in 4% of patients, most commonly in HL, NHL, and patients with advanced disease. Conclusions High CT FN risk and advanced stage of disease were found to be the most important reasons for providing pegfilgrastim PP by physicians in Poland. PMID:26557762

Characterizing environmental risk factors for West Nile virus in Quebec, Canada, using clinical data in humans and serology in pet dogs.

PubMed

Rocheleau, J P; Michel, P; Lindsay, L R; Drebot, M; Dibernardo, A; Ogden, N H; Fortin, A; Arsenault, J

2017-10-01

The identification of specific environments sustaining emerging arbovirus amplification and transmission to humans is a key component of public health intervention planning. This study aimed at identifying environmental factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) infections in southern Quebec, Canada, by modelling and jointly interpreting aggregated clinical data in humans and serological data in pet dogs. Environmental risk factors were estimated in humans by negative binomial regression based on a dataset of 191 human WNV clinical cases reported in the study area between 2011 and 2014. Risk factors for infection in dogs were evaluated by logistic and negative binomial models based on a dataset including WNV serological results from 1442 dogs sampled from the same geographical area in 2013. Forested lands were identified as low-risk environments in humans. Agricultural lands represented higher risk environments for dogs. Environments identified as impacting risk in the current study were somewhat different from those identified in other studies conducted in north-eastern USA, which reported higher risk in suburban environments. In the context of the current study, combining human and animal data allowed a more comprehensive and possibly a more accurate view of environmental WNV risk factors to be obtained than by studying aggregated human data alone.

Baseline Functioning and Stress Reactivity in Maltreating Parents and At-Risk Adults

PubMed Central

Reijman, Sophie; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J.; Hiraoka, Regina; Crouch, Julie L.; Milner, Joel S.; van IJzendoorn, Marinus H.

2016-01-01

We reviewed and meta-analyzed 10 studies (N = 492) that examined the association between (risk for) child maltreatment perpetration and basal autonomic activity, and 10 studies (N = 471) that examined the association between (risk for) child maltreatment and autonomic stress reactivity. We hypothesized that maltreating parents/at-risk adults would show higher basal levels of heart rate (HR) and skin conductance (SC) and lower levels of HR variability (HRV) and would show greater HR and SC stress reactivity, but blunted HRV reactivity. A narrative review showed that evidence from significance testing within and across studies was mixed. The first set of meta-analyses revealed that (risk for) child maltreatment was associated with higher HR baseline activity (g = 0.24), a possible indication of allostatic load. The second set of meta-analyses yielded no differences in autonomic stress reactivity between maltreating/at-risk participants and nonmaltreating/low-risk comparison groups. Cumulative meta-analyses showed that positive effects for sympathetic stress reactivity as a risk factor for child maltreatment were found in a few early studies, whereas each subsequently aggregated study reduced the combined effect size to a null effect, an indication of the winner’s curse. Most studies were underpowered. Future directions for research are suggested. PMID:27462035

Dietary fat intake and endometrial cancer risk

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jing; Lyu, Chen; Gao, Jian; Du, Li; Shan, Boer; Zhang, Hong; Wang, Hua-Ying; Gao, Ying

2016-01-01

Abstract Since body fatness is a convincing risk factor for endometrial cancer, dietary fat intake was speculated to be associated with endometrial cancer risk. However, epidemiological studies are inconclusive. We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to assess the associations between dietary fat intake and endometrial cancer risk. We searched the PubMed, Embase, and Web of science databases updated to September 2015. In total, 7 cohort and 14 case–control studies were included. Pooled analysis of case–control studies suggested that endometrial cancer risk was significantly increased by 5% per 10% kilocalories from total fat intake (P=0.02) and by 17% per 10 g/1000 kcal of saturated fat intake (P < 0.001). Summary of 3 cohort studies showed significant inverse association between monounsaturated fatty acids and endometrial cancer risk (odds ratio = 0.84, 95% confidence interval = 0.73–0.98) with a total of 524583 participants and 3503 incident cases. No significant associations were found for polyunsaturated fatty acids and linoleic acid. In conclusion, positive associations with endometrial cancer risk were observed for total fat and saturated fat intake in the case–control studies. Results from the cohort studies suggested higher monounsaturated fatty acids intake was significantly associated with lower endometrial cancer risk. PMID:27399120

Outrage Factors in Government Press Releases of Food Risk and Their Influence on News Media Coverage.

PubMed

Ju, Youngkee; Lim, Jeongsub; Shim, Minsun; You, Myoungsoon

2015-08-01

An appropriate level of risk perception should be a critical issue in modern "risk society." There have been many studies on the influences on risk perception. This study investigates whether risk communication scholar Dr. Peter Sandman's outrage factors intensify journalistic attention to health risks from food consumption. A content analysis of a health institution's press releases was conducted to examine 15 outrage factors of food risks conveyed in the governmental risk communication. In addition, the news stories covering the food risks informed by the press releases were calculated to evaluate the relation between outrage factors of a risk and the number of news stories covering the risk. Results showed that controllability was the most salient outrage factor, followed by trust, voluntariness, familiarity, and human origin; the greater the outrage score of a risk, the more news stories of the risk. For individual outrage factors, a risk with an implication of catastrophic potential was associated with an increase of news stories. Food providers' distrustful behaviors also influenced journalistic attention to the food risks. The implication of the findings to health message designers is discussed.

How Fear-Arousing News Messages Affect Risk Perceptions and Intention to Talk About Risk.

PubMed

Paek, Hye-Jin; Oh, Sang-Hwa; Hove, Thomas

2016-09-01

Building on the theoretical arguments of the impersonal-impact and differential-impact hypotheses, this study has a twofold purpose: first, to demonstrate how fear-arousing media messages about risk are associated with personal-level risk perception, as well as, and perhaps more so than, societal-level risk perception; and second, to examine how the resulting risk perceptions can mediate intention to talk about the risk with family and friends. A news message evaluation study was conducted among the general public in South Korea concerning two major risks, carcinogens and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Two sets of structural equation models reveal three main findings: (a) Fear-arousing news messages are positively related to personal-level risk perception, as well as to societal-level risk perception; (b) fear-arousing news messages result in intention to talk about the risk directly and indirectly through risk perception; and (c) personal-level risk perception appears more strongly related to intention to talk than does societal-level risk perception, although such relationships may vary across risk topics.

Morbidity, mortality, and categorization of the risk of perioperative complications in lung cancer patients*

PubMed Central

Stanzani, Fabiana; Paisani, Denise de Moraes; de Oliveira, Anderson; de Souza, Rodrigo Caetano; Perfeito, João Aléssio Juliano; Faresin, Sonia Maria

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine morbidity and mortality rates by risk category in accordance with the American College of Chest Physicians guidelines, to determine what role pulmonary function tests play in this categorization process, and to identify risk factors for perioperative complications (PCs). METHODS: This was a historical cohort study based on preoperative and postoperative data collected for cases of lung cancer diagnosed or suspected between 2001 and 2010. RESULTS: Of the 239 patients evaluated, only 13 (5.4%) were classified as being at high risk of PCs. Predicted postoperative FEV1 (FEV1ppo) was sufficient to define the risk level in 156 patients (65.3%); however, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) was necessary for identifying those at high risk. Lung resection was performed in 145 patients. Overall morbidity and mortality rates were similar to those reported in other studies. However, morbidity and mortality rates for patients at an acceptable risk of PCs were 31.6% and 4.3%, respectively, whereas those for patients at high risk were 83.3% and 33.3%. Advanced age, COPD, lobe resection, and lower FEV1ppo were correlated with PCs. CONCLUSIONS: Although spirometry was sufficient for risk assessment in the majority of the population studied, CPET played a key role in the identification of high-risk patients, among whom the mortality rate was seven times higher than was that observed for those at an acceptable risk of PCs. The risk factors related to PCs coincided with those reported in previous studies. PMID:24626266

Brief Intervention for Truant Youth Sexual Risk Behavior and Marijuana Use

PubMed Central

Dembo, Richard; Briones-Robinson, Rhissa; Barrett, Kimberly; Ungaro, Rocio; Winters, Ken C.; Belenko, Steven; Karas, Lora M.; Gulledge, Laura; Wareham, Jennifer

2013-01-01

Substance use and sexual risk behaviors are common among adolescents. Although attention has focused primarily on alcohol use, less is known about the relationship between marijuana use and sexual risk behavior among high-risk youth. Since truant youth often experience problems in school, troubled family situations, and other psychosocial problems, they represent an important group of high-risk youth to study. Previous research suggests that truant youth are at considerable risk of continuing their troubled behavior in school and entering the juvenile justice system. It is also likely that truant youth are involved in marijuana use and sexual risk behavior at a higher rate, than the general youth population. Involving them in effective intervention services could reduce these risk behaviors. The current study presents interim findings from a NIDA-funded experimental, brief intervention (BI) study involving truant youths and their parents/guardians. Longitudinal data were analyzed to study: (1) the relationships between the youths’ marijuana use and engaging in sexual risk behavior over time, and (2) the effects of a substance use BI on their marijuana use and sexual risk behavior. Analyses examined a growth model for parallel processes in marijuana use and sexual risk behavior, and an assessment of the effect of the intervention on linear and quadratic trends, and on subgroups of youth differing in their sexual risk behavior and marijuana use. Implications of the results for future research and service delivery are considered. PMID:25400493

A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Regression Analysis on Early-Life Energy Restriction and Cancer Risk in Humans.

PubMed

Elands, Rachel J J; Simons, Colinda C J M; Dongen, Martien van; Schouten, Leo J; Verhage, Bas A J; van den Brandt, Piet A; Weijenberg, Matty P

2016-01-01

In animal models, long-term moderate energy restriction (ER) is reported to decelerate carcinogenesis, whereas the effect of severe ER is inconsistent. The impact of early-life ER on cancer risk has never been reviewed systematically and quantitatively based on observational studies in humans. We conducted a systematic review of observational studies and a meta-(regression) analysis on cohort studies to clarify the association between early-life ER and organ site-specific cancer risk. PubMed and EMBASE (1982 -August 2015) were searched for observational studies. Summary relative risks (RRs) were estimated using a random effects model when available ≥3 studies. Twenty-four studies were included. Eleven publications, emanating from seven prospective cohort studies and some reporting on multiple cancer endpoints, met the inclusion criteria for quantitative analysis. Women exposed to early-life ER (ranging from 220-1660 kcal/day) had a higher breast cancer risk than those not exposed (RRRE all ages = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.05-1.56; RRRE for 10-20 years of age = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.09-1.34). Men exposed to early-life ER (ranging from 220-800kcal/day) had a higher prostate cancer risk than those not exposed (RRRE = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.30). Summary relative risks were not computed for colorectal cancer, because of heterogeneity, and for stomach-, pancreas-, ovarian-, and respiratory cancer because there were <3 available studies. Longer duration of exposure to ER, after adjustment for severity, was positively associated with overall cancer risk in women (p = 0.02). Ecological studies suggest that less severe ER is generally associated with a reduced risk of cancer. Early-life transient severe ER seems to be associated with increased cancer risk in the breast (particularly ER exposure at adolescent age) and prostate. The duration, rather than severity of exposure to ER, seems to positively influence relative risk estimates. This result should be interpreted with caution due to the limited number of studies and difficulty in disentangling duration, severity, and geographical setting of exposure.

A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Regression Analysis on Early-Life Energy Restriction and Cancer Risk in Humans

PubMed Central

Elands, Rachel J. J.; Simons, Colinda C. J. M.; van Dongen, Martien; Schouten, Leo J.; Verhage, Bas A. J.; van den Brandt, Piet A.; Weijenberg, Matty P.

2016-01-01

Background In animal models, long-term moderate energy restriction (ER) is reported to decelerate carcinogenesis, whereas the effect of severe ER is inconsistent. The impact of early-life ER on cancer risk has never been reviewed systematically and quantitatively based on observational studies in humans. Objective We conducted a systematic review of observational studies and a meta-(regression) analysis on cohort studies to clarify the association between early-life ER and organ site-specific cancer risk. Methods PubMed and EMBASE (1982 –August 2015) were searched for observational studies. Summary relative risks (RRs) were estimated using a random effects model when available ≥3 studies. Results Twenty-four studies were included. Eleven publications, emanating from seven prospective cohort studies and some reporting on multiple cancer endpoints, met the inclusion criteria for quantitative analysis. Women exposed to early-life ER (ranging from 220–1660 kcal/day) had a higher breast cancer risk than those not exposed (RRRE all ages = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.05–1.56; RRRE for 10–20 years of age = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.09–1.34). Men exposed to early-life ER (ranging from 220–800kcal/day) had a higher prostate cancer risk than those not exposed (RRRE = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03–1.30). Summary relative risks were not computed for colorectal cancer, because of heterogeneity, and for stomach-, pancreas-, ovarian-, and respiratory cancer because there were <3 available studies. Longer duration of exposure to ER, after adjustment for severity, was positively associated with overall cancer risk in women (p = 0.02). Ecological studies suggest that less severe ER is generally associated with a reduced risk of cancer. Conclusions Early-life transient severe ER seems to be associated with increased cancer risk in the breast (particularly ER exposure at adolescent age) and prostate. The duration, rather than severity of exposure to ER, seems to positively influence relative risk estimates. This result should be interpreted with caution due to the limited number of studies and difficulty in disentangling duration, severity, and geographical setting of exposure. PMID:27643873

Epidemiologic review of marijuana use and cancer risk.

PubMed

Hashibe, Mia; Straif, Kurt; Tashkin, Donald P; Morgenstern, Hal; Greenland, Sander; Zhang, Zuo-Feng

2005-04-01

Marijuana is the most commonly used illegal drug in the United States and is considered by young adults to be the illicit drug with the least risk. On the other hand, marijuana smoke contains several of the same carcinogens and co-carcinogens as the tar from tobacco, raising concerns that smoking of marijuana may be a risk factor for tobacco-related cancers. We reviewed two cohort studies and 14 case-control studies with assessment of the association of marijuana use and cancer risk. In the cohort studies, increased risks of lung or colorectal cancer due to marijuana smoking were not observed, but increased risks of prostate and cervical cancers among non-tobacco smokers, as well as adult-onset glioma among tobacco and non-tobacco smokers, were observed. The 14 case-control studies included four studies on head and neck cancers, two studies on lung cancer, two studies on non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, one study on anal cancer, one study on penile cancer, and four studies on childhood cancers with assessment of parental exposures. Zhang and colleagues reported that marijuana use may increase risk of head and neck cancers in a hospital-based case-control study in the United States, with dose-response relations for both frequency and duration of use. However, Rosenblatt and co-workers reported no association between oral cancer and marijuana use in a population-based case-control study. An eightfold increase in risk among marijuana users was observed in a lung cancer study in Tunisia. However, there was no assessment of the dose response, and marijuana may have been mixed with tobacco. Parental marijuana use during gestation was associated with increased risks of childhood leukemia, astrocytoma, and rhabdomyosarcoma, but dose-response relations were not assessed. In summary, sufficient studies are not available to adequately evaluate marijuana impact on cancer risk. Several limitations of previous studies include possible underreporting where marijuana use is illegal, small sample sizes, and too few heavy marijuana users in the study sample. Recommendations for future studies are to (1) focus on tobacco-related cancer sites; (2) obtain detailed marijuana exposure assessment, including frequency, duration, and amount of personal use as well as mode of use (smoked in a cigarette, pipe, or bong; taken orally); (3) adjust for tobacco smoking and conduct analyses on nonusers of tobacco; and (4) conduct larger studies, meta-analyses, or pooled analyses to maximize statistical precision and investigate sources of differences in results. Despite the challenges, elucidation of the association between marijuana use and cancer risk is important in weighing the benefits and risks of medical marijuana use and to clarify the impact of marijuana use on public health.

Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners’ use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs’ descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. Results GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: ‘positive’, ‘scare tactic’, and ‘indirect’. A ‘positive’ strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A ‘scare tactic’ strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to ‘scare’ them into taking action. An ‘indirect’ strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. Conclusions This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice. PMID:24885409

Predicting Cancer-Prevention Behavior: Disentangling the Effects of Risk Aversion and Risk Perceptions.

PubMed

Riddel, Mary; Hales, David

2018-05-16

Experimental and survey research spanning the last two decades concludes that people who are more risk tolerant are more likely to engage in risky health activities such as smoking and heavy alcohol consumption, and are more likely to be obese. Subjective perceptions of the risk associated with different activities have also been found to be associated with health behaviors. While there are numerous studies that link risk perceptions with risky behavior, it is notable that none of these controls for risk aversion. Similarly, studies that control for risk aversion fail to control for risk misperceptions. We use a survey of 474 men and women to investigate the influence of risk aversion, risk misperceptions, and cognitive ability on the choice to engage in behaviors that either increase or mitigate cancer risk. We measure optimism in two dimensions: baseline optimists are those who inaccurately believe their cancer risk to be below its expert-assessed level, while control optimists are those who believe they can reduce their risk of cancer (by changing their lifestyle choices) to a greater extent than is actually the case. Our results indicate that baseline optimism is significantly and negatively correlated with subjects' tendencies to engage in cancer-risk-reducing behaviors, and positively correlated with risky behaviors. Subjects' control misperceptions also appear to play a role in their tendency to engage in risky and prevention behaviors. When controlling for both of these types of risk misperception, risk aversion plays a much smaller role in determining health behaviors than found in past studies. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Consumption of whole grains and cereal fiber in relation to cancer risk: a systematic review of longitudinal studies

PubMed Central

Makarem, Nour; Nicholson, Joseph M.; Bandera, Elisa V.; McKeown, Nicola M.

2016-01-01

Context: Evidence from previous reviews is supportive of the hypothesis that whole grains may protect against various cancers. However, the reviews did not report risk estimates for both whole grains and cereal fiber and only case–control studies were evaluated. It is unclear whether longitudinal studies support this conclusion. Objective: To evaluate associations between whole grains and cereal fiber in relation to risk of lifestyle-related cancers data from longitudinal studies was evaluated. Data Sources: The following 3 databases were systematically searched: PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL. Study Selection: A total of 43 longitudinal studies conducted in Europe and North America that reported multivariable-adjusted risk estimates for whole grains (n = 14), cereal fiber (n = 23), or both (n = 6) in relation to lifestyle-related cancers were included. Data Extraction: Information on study location, cohort name, follow-up duration, sample characteristics, dietary assessment method, risk estimates, and confounders was extracted. Data Synthesis: Of 20 studies examining whole grains and cancer, 6 studies reported a statistically significant 6%–47% reduction in risk, but 14 studies showed no association. Of 29 studies examining cereal fiber intake in relation to cancer, 8 showed a statistically significant 6%–49% reduction in risk, whereas 21 studies reported no association. Conclusions: This systematic review concludes that most studies were suggestive of a null association. Whole grains and cereal fiber may protect against gastrointestinal cancers, but these findings require confirmation in additional studies. PMID:27257283

T wave alternans as a predictor of recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients: prospective comparison with conventional risk markers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hohnloser, S. H.; Klingenheben, T.; Li, Y. G.; Zabel, M.; Peetermans, J.; Cohen, R. J.

1998-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The current standard for arrhythmic risk stratification is electrophysiologic (EP) testing, which, due to its invasive nature, is limited to patients already known to be at high risk. A number of noninvasive tests, such as determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or heart rate variability, have been evaluated as additional risk stratifiers. Microvolt T wave alternans (TWA) is a promising new risk marker. Prospective evaluation of noninvasive risk markers in low- or moderate-risk populations requires studies involving very large numbers of patients, and in such studies, documentation of the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias is difficult. In the present study, we identified a high-risk population, recipients of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), and prospectively compared microvolt TWA with invasive EP testing and other risk markers with respect to their ability to predict recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias as documented by ICD electrograms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with a history of ventricular tachyarrhythmias undergoing implantation of an ICD underwent EP testing, assessment of TWA, as well as determination of LVEF, baroreflex sensitivity, signal-averaged ECG, analysis of 24-hour Holter monitoring, and QT dispersion from the 12-lead surface ECG. The endpoint of the study was first appropriate ICD therapy for electrogram-documented ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia during follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that TWA (P < 0.006) and LVEF (P < 0.04) were the only significant univariate risk stratifiers. EP testing was not statistically significant (P < 0.2). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that TWA was the only statistically significant independent risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of microvolt TWA compared favorably with both invasive EP testing and other currently used noninvasive risk assessment methods in predicting recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients. This study suggests that TWA might also be a powerful tool for risk stratification in low- or moderate-risk patients, and needs to be prospectively evaluated in such populations.

Cardiovascular risk from water arsenic exposure in Vietnam: Application of systematic review and meta-regression analysis in chemical health risk assessment.

PubMed

Phung, Dung; Connell, Des; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia

2017-06-01

A systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis cannot provide the endpoint answer for a chemical risk assessment (CRA). The objective of this study was to apply SR and meta-regression (MR) analysis to address this limitation using a case study in cardiovascular risk from arsenic exposure in Vietnam. Published studies were searched from PubMed using the keywords of arsenic exposure and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Random-effects meta-regression was applied to model the linear relationship between arsenic concentration in water and risk of CVD, and then the no-observable-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) were identified from the regression function. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique was applied to characterize risk of CVD due to arsenic exposure by estimating the overlapping coefficient between dose-response and exposure distribution curves. The risks were evaluated for groundwater, treated and drinking water. A total of 8 high quality studies for dose-response and 12 studies for exposure data were included for final analyses. The results of MR suggested a NOAEL of 50 μg/L and a guideline of 5 μg/L for arsenic in water which valued as a half of NOAEL and guidelines recommended from previous studies and authorities. The results of PRA indicated that the observed exposure level with exceeding CVD risk was 52% for groundwater, 24% for treated water, and 10% for drinking water in Vietnam, respectively. The study found that systematic review and meta-regression can be considered as an ideal method to chemical risk assessment due to its advantages to bring the answer for the endpoint question of a CRA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear reduction in risk for colorectal cancer by fruit and vegetable intake based on meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Aune, Dagfinn; Lau, Rosa; Chan, Doris S M; Vieira, Rui; Greenwood, Darren C; Kampman, Ellen; Norat, Teresa

2011-07-01

The association between fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk has been investigated by many studies but is controversial because of inconsistent results and weak observed associations. We summarized the evidence from cohort studies in categorical, linear, and nonlinear, dose-response meta-analyses. We searched PubMed for studies of fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk that were published until the end of May 2010. We included 19 prospective studies that reported relative risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of colorectal cancer-associated with fruit and vegetable intake. Random effects models were used to estimate summary relative risks. The summary relative risk for the highest vs the lowest intake was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-0.99) for fruit and vegetables combined, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.83-0.98) for fruit, and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.86-0.96) for vegetables (P for heterogeneity=.24, .05, and .54, respectively). The inverse associations appeared to be restricted to colon cancer. In linear dose-response analysis, only intake of vegetables was significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk (summary relative risk=0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-0.99), per 100 g/d. However, significant inverse associations emerged in nonlinear models for fruits (Pnonlinearity<.001) and vegetables (Pnonlinearity=.001). The greatest risk reduction was observed when intake increased from very low levels of intake. There was generally little evidence of heterogeneity in the analyses and there was no evidence of small-study bias. Based on meta-analysis of prospective studies, there is a weak but statistically significant nonlinear inverse association between fruit and vegetable intake and colorectal cancer risk. Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Red and processed meat consumption and risk of glioma in adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

PubMed Central

Saneei, Parvane; Willett, Walter; Esmaillzadeh, Ahmad

2015-01-01

Background: These findings from several observational studies, investigated the association between red meat consumption and gliomas, were inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies to summarize available date on the relation between meat intake and risk of glioma. Materials and Methods: A systematic literature search of relevant reports published until May 2014 of the PubMed/Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, Excerpta Medica database, Ovid database, Google Scholar, and Scopus databases was conducted. From 723 articles yielded in the preliminary literature search, data from eighteen publications (14 case-control, three cohort, and one nested case-control study) on unprocessed red meat, processed meat, and/or total red meat consumption in relation to glioma in adults were included in the analysis. Quality assessment of studies was performed. Random effects model was used to conduct the meta-analysis. Results: We found a positive significant association between unprocessed red meat intake and risk of glioma (relative risk [RR] = 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.58) after excluding three studies with uncertain type of brain cancer. This analysis included only one cohort study which revealed no relation between unprocessed red meat intake and glioma (RR = 1.75; 95% CI: 0.35-8.77). Consumption of processed meats was not related to increased risk of glioma in population-based case-control studies (RR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.05-1.51) and reduced risk in hospital-based case-controls (RR = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.65-0.97). No significant association was seen between processed red meat intake and risk of glioma in cohort studies (RR: 1.08; 95% CI: 0.84-1.37). Total red meat consumption was not associated with risk of adult glioma in case-control or cohort studies. Conclusion: In this meta-analysis of 18 observational studies, we found a modest positive association between unprocessed red meat intake and risk of gliomas based almost entirely on case-control studies. Processed red meat was overall not associated with risk of gliomas in case-control or cohort studies. PMID:26600837

Real and hypothetical monetary rewards modulate risk taking in the brain.

PubMed

Xu, Sihua; Pan, Yu; Wang, You; Spaeth, Andrea M; Qu, Zhe; Rao, Hengyi

2016-07-07

Both real and hypothetical monetary rewards are widely used as reinforcers in risk taking and decision making studies. However, whether real and hypothetical monetary rewards modulate risk taking and decision making in the same manner remains controversial. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERP) with a balloon analogue risk task (BART) paradigm to examine the effects of real and hypothetical monetary rewards on risk taking in the brain. Behavioral data showed reduced risk taking after negative feedback (money loss) during the BART with real rewards compared to those with hypothetical rewards, suggesting increased loss aversion with real monetary rewards. The ERP data demonstrated a larger feedback-related negativity (FRN) in response to money loss during risk taking with real rewards compared to those with hypothetical rewards, which may reflect greater prediction error or regret emotion after real monetary losses. These findings demonstrate differential effects of real versus hypothetical monetary rewards on risk taking behavior and brain activity, suggesting a caution when drawing conclusions about real choices from hypothetical studies of intended behavior, especially when large rewards are used. The results have implications for future utility of real and hypothetical monetary rewards in studies of risk taking and decision making.

Risk assessment in infrastructure in educational institution: A study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasdan Ismail, Ahmad; Adilah Hamzah, Noor; Kamilah Makhtar, Nor; Azhar Mat Daud, Khairul; Zulkarnaen Khidzir, Nik; Husna Che Hassan, Nurul; Arifpin Mansor, Muhamad

2017-10-01

This particular study was conducted to assess the hazard exposure in education institution and to highlight the possible risk level available. The assessment utilised is Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC). There was a 2008’s form in order to determine the risk level of the hazard. There were over 111 of education institutions were selected around Malaysia to perform this assessment. Area chosen for each institution was office, playing field, canteen, classroom, toilet and drainage. By referring HIRARC Guideline 2008, the determination of risk rank is measure based on the formula likelihood multiply severity and the rank need to refer from risk matrix standard. There are several hazard have be found and shows the high, medium and low of risk level. The higher level of risk was discussed in the study which is hazard found in playing field and hazard in office. There several hazard that need to be control by education management to avoid increase of case accident in Education Sector, Malaysia. As conclusion, the exposure hazard among the staff and educators is high and further action and control are needed. Further study need to explore the best recommendation for control measure of the hazard exposed by education institution.

Psychiatric morbidity after surgery for inflammatory bowel disease: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Zangenberg, Marie Strøm; El-Hussuna, Alaa

2017-01-01

AIM To examine the evidence about psychiatric morbidity after inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)-related surgery. METHODS PRISMA guidelines were followed and a protocol was published at PROSPERO (CRD42016037600). Inclusion criteria were studies describing patients with inflammatory bowel disease undergoing surgery and their risk of developing psychiatric disorder. RESULTS Twelve studies (including 4340 patients) were eligible. All studies were non-randomized and most had high risk of bias. Patients operated for inflammatory bowel disease had an increased risk of developing depression, compared with surgical patients with diverticulitis or inguinal hernia, but not cancer. In addition, patients with Crohn’s disease had higher risk of depression after surgery compared with non-surgical patients. Patients with ulcerative colitis had higher risk of anxiety after surgery compared with surgical colorectal cancer patients. Charlson comorbidity score more than three and female gender were independent predictors for depression and anxiety following surgery. CONCLUSION The review cannot give any clear answer to the risks of psychiatric morbidity after surgery for IBD studies with the lowest risk of bias indicated an increased risk of depression among surgical patients with Crohn’s disease and increased risk of anxiety among patients with ulcerative colitis. PMID:29358872

An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov; Thompson, Chad M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A descriptionmore » of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.« less

Relationships between direct predation and risk effects.

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Christianson, David

2008-04-01

Risk effects arise when prey alter their behavior in response to predators, and these responses carry costs. Empirical studies have found that risk effects can be large. Nonetheless, studies of predation in vertebrate conservation and management usually consider only direct predation. Given the ubiquity and strength of behavioral responses to predators by vertebrate prey, it is not safe to assume that risk effects on dynamics can be ignored. Risk effects can be larger than direct effects. Risk effects can exist even when the direct rate of predation is zero. Risk effects and direct effects do not necessarily change in parallel. When risk effects reduce reproduction rather than survival, they are easily mistaken for limitation by food supply.

Framingham risk score for estimation of 10-years of cardiovascular diseases risk in patients with metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Jahangiry, Leila; Farhangi, Mahdieh Abbasalizad; Rezaei, Fatemeh

2017-11-13

There are a few studies evaluating the predictive value of Framingham risk score (FRS) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment in patients with metabolic syndrome in Iran. Because of the emerging high prevalence of CVD among Iranian population, it is important to predict its risk among populations with potential predictive tools. Therefore, the aim of the current study is to evaluate the FRS and its determinants in patients with metabolic syndrome. In the current cross-sectional study, 160 patients with metabolic syndrome diagnosed according to the National Cholesterol Education Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III criteria were enrolled. The FRS was calculated using a computer program by a previously suggested algorithm. Totally, 77.5, 16.3, and 6.3% of patients with metabolic syndrome were at low, intermediate, and high risk of CVD according to FRS categorization. The highest prevalence of all of metabolic syndrome components were in low CVD risk according to the FRS grouping (P < 0.05), while the lowest prevalence of these components was in high CVD risk group (P < 0.05). According to multiple logistic regression analysis, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and fasting serum glucose (FSG) were potent determinants of intermediate and high risk CVD risk of FRS scoring compared with low risk group (P < 0.05). In the current study, significant associations between components of metabolic syndrome and different FRS categorization among patients with metabolic syndrome were identified. High SBP and FSG were associated with meaningfully increased risk of CVD compared with other parameters. The study is not a trial; the registration number is not applicable.

Marijuana smoking and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium.

PubMed

Berthiller, Julien; Lee, Yuan-Chin Amy; Boffetta, Paolo; Wei, Qingyi; Sturgis, Erich M; Greenland, Sander; Morgenstern, Hal; Zhang, Zuo-Feng; Lazarus, Philip; Muscat, Joshua; Chen, Chu; Schwartz, Stephen M; Eluf Neto, José; Wünsch Filho, Victor; Koifman, Sergio; Curado, Maria Paula; Matos, Elena; Fernandez, Leticia; Menezes, Ana; Daudt, Alexander W; Ferro, Gilles; Brennan, Paul; Hashibe, Mia

2009-05-01

Marijuana contains carcinogens similar to tobacco smoke and has been suggested by relatively small studies to increase the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC). Because tobacco is a major risk factor for HNC, large studies with substantial numbers of never tobacco users could help to clarify whether marijuana smoking is independently associated with HNC risk. We pooled self-reported interview data on marijuana smoking and known HNC risk factors on 4,029 HNC cases and 5,015 controls from five case-control studies within the INHANCE Consortium. Subanalyses were conducted among never tobacco users (493 cases and 1,813 controls) and among individuals who did not consume alcohol or smoke tobacco (237 cases and 887 controls). The risk of HNC was not elevated by ever marijuana smoking [odds ratio (OR), 0.88; 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), 0.67-1.16], and there was no increasing risk associated with increasing frequency, duration, or cumulative consumption of marijuana smoking. An increased risk of HNC associated with marijuana use was not detected among never tobacco users (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.63-1.37; three studies) nor among individuals who did not drink alcohol and smoke tobacco (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.47-2.38; two studies). Our results are consistent with the notion that infrequent marijuana smoking does not confer a risk of these malignancies. Nonetheless, because the prevalence of frequent marijuana smoking was low in most of the contributing studies, we could not rule out a moderately increased risk, particularly among subgroups without exposure to tobacco and alcohol.

Motives for risk-taking in adolescence: a cross-cultural study.

PubMed

Kloep, M; Güney, N; Cok, F; Simsek, O F

2009-02-01

Most research on adolescent risk-taking has been conducted in Western societies, but it is as yet unknown whether motives to engage in risk behaviours show cultural variety. This study sets out to investigate differences in perceived motives to engage in perceived risks in Turkish and Welsh samples of young people (N=922) between 14 and 20 years of age. For this, a measurement scale to assess motives for risk-taking was constructed and validated cross-culturally. The scale was based on Kloep and Hendry's [(1999). Challenges, risks and coping in adolescence. In D. Messer, & S. Millar (Eds.), Exploring developmental psychology (pp. 400-416). London: Arnold] theoretical framework and the results of a study by Güney and Cok [(2006). Adolescent risk-taking: Calculated risks, Turkish experience. In Paper presented at the 10th Bi-annual conference of the European Association for Research on Adolescence, Antalya, Turkey]. Results show that different motives are associated with different risk behaviours, confirming Kloep and Hendry's expanded model. There were small, but significant, national differences, implying that motives to take risks-as opposed to actual risks taken-could be similar across adolescent populations, independent of culture.

Feelings and intervention judgments as mediators in the risk perception-intention relationship.

PubMed

Soureti, Anastasia; Hurling, Robert; Cobain, Mark R; van Mechelen, Willem; Chinapaw, Mai

2013-07-01

To explore the mediating role of measures of persuasion in the relationship between risk perceptions and intentions. The first study included 413 obese subjects (mean age = 45.3 years); the second study, 781 overweight subjects (mean age = 46.6 years). All measures were assessed by self-report. Feelings and intervention judgments were mediators in the relationship between risk perceptions and intention to eat healthier, do more physical activity (study 1) and intention to reduce saturated fat (study 2). Feelings was the only mediator in the relationship between risk perceptions and intention to stop smoking (study 1). Future interventions targeting risk perceptions to increase intentions are likely to be more effective if subjects find the information emotionally impactful, credible, and engaging.

Securing Location Services Infrastructures: Practical Criteria for Application Developers and Solutions Architects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karamanian, Andre

2013-01-01

This qualitative, exploratory, normative study examined the security and privacy of location based services in mobile applications. This study explored risk, and controls to implement privacy and security. This study was addressed using components of the FIPS Risk Management Framework. This study found that risk to location information was…

Longitudinal patterns and predictors of multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents: The TRAILS study.

PubMed

de Winter, Andrea F; Visser, Leenke; Verhulst, Frank C; Vollebergh, Wilma A M; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

2016-03-01

Most studies on multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents have cross-sectionally studied a limited number of health behaviors or determinants. To examine the prevalence, longitudinal patterns and predictors of individual and multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents. Eight health risk behaviors (no regular consumption of fruit, vegetables or breakfast, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol use and cannabis use) were assessed in a prospective population study (second and third wave). Participants were assessed in three waves between ages 10 and 17 (2001-2008; n=2230). Multiple linear regression was used to assess the influence of gender, self-control, parental health risk behaviors, parental monitoring and socioeconomic factors on the number of health risk behaviors adjusted for preceding multiple health risk behaviors (analysis: 2013-2014). Rates of >5 health risk behaviors were high: 3.6% at age 13.5 and 10.2% at age 16. Smoking at age 13.5 was frequently associated with health risk behaviors at age 16. No regular consumption of fruit, vegetables and breakfast, overweight or obesity, physical inactivity and smoking predicted the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors at follow-up. Significant predictors of the development of multiple health risk behaviors were adolescents' levels of self-control, socioeconomic status and maternal smoking. Multiple health risk behaviors are common among adolescents. Individual and social factors predict changes in multiple health risk behaviors, showing that prevention targeting multiple risk behaviors is needed. Special attention should be paid to adolescents with low self-control and families with low socioeconomic status or a mother who smokes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contribution of Established Stroke Risk Factors to the Burden of Stroke in Young Adults.

PubMed

Aigner, Annette; Grittner, Ulrike; Rolfs, Arndt; Norrving, Bo; Siegerink, Bob; Busch, Markus A

2017-07-01

As stroke in young adults is assumed to have different etiologies and risk factors than in older populations, the aim of this study was to examine the contribution of established potentially modifiable cardiovascular risk factors to the burden of stroke in young adults. A German nationwide case-control study based on patients enrolled in the SIFAP1 study (Stroke In Young Fabry Patients) 2007 to 2010 and controls from the population-based GEDA study (German Health Update) 2009 to 2010 was performed. Cases were 2125 consecutive patients aged 18 to 55 years with acute first-ever stroke from 26 clinical stroke centers; controls (age- and sex-matched, n=8500, without previous stroke) were from a nationwide community sample. Adjusted population-attributable risks of 8 risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, smoking, heavy episodic alcohol consumption, low physical activity, and obesity) and their combinations for all stroke, ischemic stroke, and primary intracerebral hemorrhage were calculated. Low physical activity and hypertension were the most important risk factors, accounting for 59.7% (95% confidence interval, 56.3-63.2) and 27.1% (95% confidence interval, 23.6-30.6) of all strokes, respectively. All 8 risk factors combined explained 78.9% (95% confidence interval, 76.3-81.4) of all strokes. Population-attributable risks of all risk factors were similar for all ischemic stroke subtypes. Population-attributable risks of most risk factors were higher in older age groups and in men. Modifiable risk factors previously established in older populations also account for a large part of stroke in younger adults, with 4 risk factors explaining almost 80% of stroke risk. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00414583. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk of incident cardiovascular events amongst individuals with anxiety and depression: A prospective cohort study in the east London primary care database.

PubMed

Mathur, R; Pérez-Pinar, M; Foguet-Boreu, Q; Ayis, S; Ayerbe, L

2016-12-01

It is unknown how risk of myocardial infarction and stroke differ for patients with and without anxiety or depression, and whether this risk can be explained by demographics, medication use, cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of this study is to quantify differences in risk of non-fatal MI or stroke among patients with anxiety or depression. Prospective cohort study examining risk of incident MI and stroke between March 2005 and March 2015 for 524,952 patients aged 30 and over from the east London primary care database for patients with anxiety or depression. Amongst 21,811 individuals with depression at baseline, 1.2% had MI and 0.4% had stroke. Of 22,128 individuals with anxiety at baseline, 1.1% had MI and 0.3% had stroke. Depression was independently associated with both MI and stroke, whereas anxiety was associated with MI only before adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. Antidepressant use increased risk for MI but not stroke. Mean age at first MI was lower in those with anxiety, while mean age at first stroke was lower in those with depression. The study was limited to patients currently registered in the database and thus we did not have any patients that died during the course of follow-up. Patients with depression have increased risk of cardiovascular events. The finding of no increased cardiovascular risk in those with anxiety after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors is of clinical importance and highlights that the adequate control of traditional risk factors is the cornerstone of cardiovascular disease prevention. Targeting management of classical cardiovascular risk factors and evaluating the risks of antidepressant prescribing should be prioritized. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interaction of a genetic risk score with physical activity, physical inactivity, and body mass index in relation to venous thromboembolism risk.

PubMed

Kim, Jihye; Kraft, Peter; Hagan, Kaitlin A; Harrington, Laura B; Lindstroem, Sara; Kabrhel, Christopher

2018-06-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is highly heritable. Physical activity, physical inactivity and body mass index (BMI) are also risk factors, but evidence of interaction between genetic and environmental risk factors is limited. Data on 2,134 VTE cases and 3,890 matched controls were obtained from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS), Nurses' Health Study II (NHS II), and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). We calculated a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) using 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with VTE risk in published genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Data on three risk factors, physical activity (metabolic equivalent [MET] hours per week), physical inactivity (sitting hours per week) and BMI, were obtained from biennial questionnaires. VTE cases were incident since cohort inception; controls were matched to cases on age, cohort, and genotype array. Using conditional logistic regression, we assessed joint effects and interaction effects on both additive and multiplicative scales. We also ran models using continuous wGRS stratified by risk-factor categories. We observed a supra-additive interaction between wGRS and BMI. Having both high wGRS and high BMI was associated with a 3.4-fold greater risk of VTE (relative excess risk due to interaction = 0.69, p = 0.046). However, we did not find evidence for a multiplicative interaction with BMI. No interactions were observed for physical activity or inactivity. We found a synergetic effect between a genetic risk score and high BMI on the risk of VTE. Intervention efforts lowering BMI to decrease VTE risk may have particularly large beneficial effects among individuals with high genetic risk. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

A systematic review of risk factors associated with accidental falls, outcome measures and interventions to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults.

PubMed

Rice, Laura A; Ousley, Cherita; Sosnoff, Jacob J

2015-01-01

To systematically review peer-reviewed literature pertaining to risk factors, outcome measures and interventions managing fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Twenty-one papers were selected for inclusion from databases including PubMed/Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Library, Scopus, Consumer Health Complete and Web of Science. Selected studies involved a description of fall related risk factors, outcomes to assess fall risk and intervention studies describing protocols to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Studies were selected by two reviewers and consultation provided by a third reviewer. The most frequently cited risk factors/characteristics associated with falls included: wheelchair related characteristics, transfer activities, impaired seated balance and environmental factors. The majority of the outcomes were found to evaluate seated postural control. One intervention study was identified describing a protocol targeting specific problems of individual participants. A global fall prevention program was not identified. Several risk factors associated with falls were identified and must be understood by clinicians to better serve their clients. To improve objective assessment, a comprehensive outcome assessment specific to non-ambulatory adults is needed. Finally, additional research is needed to examine the impact of structured protocols to manage fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Falls are a common health concern for non-ambulatory adults. Risk factors commonly associated with falls include wheelchair related characteristics, transfer activities, impaired seated balance and environmental factors. Limited outcome measures are available to assess fall risk in non-ambulatory adults. Clinicians must be aware of the known risk factors and provide comprehensive education to their clients on the potential for falls. Additional research is needed to develop and evaluate protocols to clinically manage fall risk.

Alcohol Intake and Risk of Thyroid Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Hong, Seung-Hee; Myung, Seung-Kwon; Kim, Hyeon Suk

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess whether alcohol intake is associated with the risk of thyroid cancer by a meta-analysis of observational studies. We searched PubMed and EMBASE in June of 2015 to locate eligible studies. We included observational studies such as cross-sectional studies, case-control studies, and cohort studies reporting odd ratios (ORs) or relative risk (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We included 33 observational studies with two cross-sectional studies, 20 case-controls studies, and 11 cohort studies, which involved a total of 7,725 thyroid cancer patients and 3,113,679 participants without thyroid cancer in the final analysis. In the fixed-effect model meta-analysis of all 33 studies, we found that alcohol intake was consistently associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer (OR or RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.83; I 2 =38.6%). In the subgroup meta-analysis by type of study, alcohol intake also decreased the risk of thyroid cancer in both case-control studies (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.92; I 2 =29.5%; n=20) and cohort studies (RR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.82; I 2 =0%; n=11). Moreover, subgroup meta-analyses by type of thyroid cancer, gender, amount of alcohol consumed, and methodological quality of study showed that alcohol intake was significantly associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer. The current meta-analysis of observational studies found that, unlike most of other types of cancer, alcohol intake decreased the risk of thyroid cancer.

Risk Factors for Invasive Fungal Disease in Pediatric Cancer and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Fisher, Brian T; Robinson, Paula D; Lehrnbecher, Thomas; Steinbach, William J; Zaoutis, Theoklis E; Phillips, Bob; Sung, Lillian

2017-05-26

Although a number of risk factors have been associated with invasive fungal disease (IFD), a systematic review of the literature to document pediatric-specific factors has not been performed. We used the Ovid SP platform to search Medline, Medline In-Process, and Embase for studies that identified risk factors for IFD in children with cancer or those who undergo hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We included studies if they consisted of children or adolescents (<25 years) who were receiving treatment for cancer or undergoing HSCT and if the study evaluated risk factors among patients with and those without IFD. Among the 3566 studies screened, 22 studies were included. A number of pediatric factors commonly associated with an increased risk for IFD were confirmed, including prolonged neutropenia, high-dose steroid exposure, intensive-timing chemotherapy for acute myeloid leukemia, and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease. Increasing age, a factor not commonly associated with IFD risk, was identified as a risk factor in multiple published cohorts. With this systematic review, we have confirmed IFD risk factors that are considered routinely in daily clinical practice. Increasing age should also be considered when assessing patient risk for IFD. Future efforts should focus on defining more precise thresholds for a particular risk factor (ie, age, neutropenia duration) and on development of prediction rules inclusive of individual factors to further refine the risk prediction. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Successful implementation of clinical practice guidelines for pressure risk management in a home nursing setting.

PubMed

Kapp, Suzanne

2013-10-01

This paper reports an initiative which promoted evidence-based practice in pressure risk assessment and management among home nursing clients in Melbourne, Australia. The aim of this study was to evaluate the introduction and uptake of the Australian Wound Management Association Guidelines for the Prediction and Prevention of Pressure Ulcers. In 2007 a pilot study was conducted. Nurse perspectives (n=21) were obtained via survey and a client profile (n=218) was generated. Audit of the uptake and continued use of the pressure risk screening tool, during the pilot study and later once implemented as standard practice organizational wide, was conducted. Nurses at the pilot site successfully implemented the practice guidelines, pressure risk screening was adopted and supporting resources were well received. Most clients were at low risk of pressure ulcer development. The pilot site maintained and extended their pilot study success, ensuring more than 90% of clients were screened for pressure risk over the 18 months which followed. All other sites performed less well initially, however subsequently improved, meeting the pilot sites success after 18 months. Two years later, the organization continues to screen more than 90% of all clients for pressure risk. Implementation of clinical practice guidelines was successful in the pilot project and pressure risk screening became a well-adopted practice. Success continued following organizational wide implementation. Pilot study findings suggest it may be prudent to monitor the pressure ulcer risk status of low risk clients so as to prevent increasing risk and pressure ulcer development among this group. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Literature review of baseline study for risk analysis - the landfill leachate case.

PubMed

Butt, T E; Gouda, H M; Baloch, M I; Paul, P; Javadi, A A; Alam, A

2014-02-01

There is growing awareness and public concern about environmental impacts of waste management and disposal. Environmental policy instruments have been strengthened and associated governmental programmes have increased in recent years, resulting in high level strategies for waste management. Risk assessment is now an essential tool in the prioritisation of environmental and human health protection. However, regulators need to compare the full range of risks on a sound and consistent basis. Comparing risks from such diverse sources poses a significant challenge, and traditional hazard and risk assessments are no longer sufficient. Consideration now needs to be given to a much wider range of factors if risk assessment is to be used as an aid to more integrated decision-making process. For this purpose, baseline study - the foundation of risk assessment - can play a crucial role. To date limited research has been conducted on the need, parameters, requirements, and constituents of baseline study particularly in the context of how, why, and what information is to be collated in order to render risk assessments more appropriately integrated and complete. To establish the 'state-of-the-art' of baseline study, this paper comprehensively reviews the literature regarding environmental risk assessment in general terms, and then proceeds to review work that is specifically related to landfills and landfill leachate, thereby identifying knowledge gaps and shortfall areas. This review concludes that a holistic baseline study procedure for waste disposal sites, which risk assessors could use for carrying out risk analyses specifically for landfill leachate, does not as yet exist. © 2013.

Risk of injury for occupants of motor vehicle collisions from unbelted occupants.

PubMed

MacLennan, P A; McGwin, G; Metzger, J; Moran, S G; Rue, L W

2004-12-01

Unbelted occupants may increase the risk of injury for other occupants in a motor vehicle collision (MVC). This study evaluated the association between occupant restraint use and the risk of injury (including death) to other vehicle occupants. A population based cohort study. United States. MVC occupants (n = 152 191 unweighted, n = 18 426 684 weighted) seated between a belted or unbelted occupant and the line of the principal direction of force in frontal, lateral, and rear MVCs were sampled from the 1991-2002 National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System. Offset MVCs were not included in the study. Risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals for injury (including death) for occupants seated contiguous to unbelted occupants compared to occupants seated contiguous to belted occupants. Risk ratios were adjusted for at risk occupant's sex, age, seating position, vehicle type, collision type, travel speed, crash severity, and at risk occupants' own seat belt use. Exposure to unbelted occupants was associated with a 40% increased risk of any injury. Belted at risk occupants were at a 90% increased risk of injury but unbelted occupants were not at increased risk. Risks were similar for non-incapacitating and capacitating injuries. There was a 4.8-fold increased risk of death for exposed belted occupants but no increased risk of death for unbelted occupants. Belted occupants are at an increased risk of injury and death in the event of a MVC from unbelted occupants.

Risk of injury for occupants of motor vehicle collisions from unbelted occupants

PubMed Central

MacLennan, P; McGwin, G; Metzger, J; Moran, S; Rue, L

2004-01-01

Objective: Unbelted occupants may increase the risk of injury for other occupants in a motor vehicle collision (MVC). This study evaluated the association between occupant restraint use and the risk of injury (including death) to other vehicle occupants. Design: A population based cohort study. Setting: United States. Subjects: MVC occupants (n = 152 191 unweighted, n = 18 426 684 weighted) seated between a belted or unbelted occupant and the line of the principal direction of force in frontal, lateral, and rear MVCs were sampled from the 1991–2002 National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System. Offset MVCs were not included in the study. Main outcome measure: Risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals for injury (including death) for occupants seated contiguous to unbelted occupants compared to occupants seated contiguous to belted occupants. Risk ratios were adjusted for at risk occupant's sex, age, seating position, vehicle type, collision type, travel speed, crash severity, and at risk occupants' own seat belt use. Results: Exposure to unbelted occupants was associated with a 40% increased risk of any injury. Belted at risk occupants were at a 90% increased risk of injury but unbelted occupants were not at increased risk. Risks were similar for non-incapacitating and capacitating injuries. There was a 4.8-fold increased risk of death for exposed belted occupants but no increased risk of death for unbelted occupants. Conclusions: Belted occupants are at an increased risk of injury and death in the event of a MVC from unbelted occupants. PMID:15583258

Lycopene and Risk of Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Chen, Ping; Zhang, Wenhao; Wang, Xiao; Zhao, Keke; Negi, Devendra Singh; Zhuo, Li; Qi, Mao; Wang, Xinghuan; Zhang, Xinhua

2015-01-01

Abstract Prostate cancer (PCa) is a common illness for aging males. Lycopene has been identified as an antioxidant agent with potential anticancer properties. Studies investigating the relation between lycopene and PCa risk have produced inconsistent results. This study aims to determine dietary lycopene consumption/circulating concentration and any potential dose–response associations with the risk of PCa. Eligible studies published in English up to April 10, 2014, were searched and identified from Pubmed, Sciencedirect Online, Wiley online library databases and hand searching. The STATA (version 12.0) was applied to process the dose–response meta-analysis. Random effects models were used to calculate pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and to incorporate variation between studies. The linear and nonlinear dose–response relations were evaluated with data from categories of lycopene consumption/circulating concentrations. Twenty-six studies were included with 17,517 cases of PCa reported from 563,299 participants. Although inverse association between lycopene consumption and PCa risk was not found in all studies, there was a trend that with higher lycopene intake, there was reduced incidence of PCa (P = 0.078). Removal of one Chinese study in sensitivity analysis, or recalculation using data from only high-quality studies for subgroup analysis, indicated that higher lycopene consumption significantly lowered PCa risk. Furthermore, our dose–response meta-analysis demonstrated that higher lycopene consumption was linearly associated with a reduced risk of PCa with a threshold between 9 and 21 mg/day. Consistently, higher circulating lycopene levels significantly reduced the risk of PCa. Interestingly, the concentration of circulating lycopene between 2.17 and 85 μg/dL was linearly inversed with PCa risk whereas there was no linear association >85 μg/dL. In addition, greater efficacy for the circulating lycopene concentration on preventing PCa was found for studies with high quality, follow-up >10 years and where results were adjusted by the age or the body mass index. In conclusion, our novel data demonstrates that higher lycopene consumption/circulating concentration is associated with a lower risk of PCa. However, further studies are required to determine the mechanism by which lycopene reduces the risk of PCa and if there are other factors in tomato products that might potentially decrease PCa risk and progression. PMID:26287411

Gender Differences in Risk for Intimate Partner Violence among South African Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gass, Jesse D.; Stein, Dan J.; Williams, David R.; Seedat, Soraya

2011-01-01

Despite a high prevalence of intimate partner violence in South Africa, few epidemiological studies have assessed individual risk factors and differential vulnerability by gender. This study seeks to analyze gender differences in risk for intimate partner violence victimization and perpetration according to childhood and adult risk factors in a…

Stability, Correlates, and Outcome of Adolescent Suicidal Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Bosiger, Ruth; Metzke, Christa Winkler

2006-01-01

Background: The goal of this study was to investigate the stability and correlates of adolescent suicidal risk across adolescence. Methods: Suicidal risk was studied longitudinally in N = 593 subjects in 1994, 1997, and 2001 at mean ages of 13, 16, and 20 years. Three partly overlapping suicidal risk groups were compared to three control groups…

Childhood Risk Factors for Lifetime Anorexia Nervosa by Age 30 Years in a National Birth Cohort

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nicholls, Dasha E.; Viner, Russell M.

2009-01-01

Whether previously identified childhood risk factors for anorexia nervosa (AN) predict self-reported lifetime AN by age 30 is examined. The cohort confirmed four risk and two protective factors out of the 22 suggested risk factors. The study used data from the 1970 British Cohort Study.

Single particle effects, Biostack, and risk evaluation - Studies on the radiation risk from Galactic cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Stanley B.

1993-01-01

The possible health risks posed by Galactic cosmic rays, especially the possible heightened cancer risk, are examined. The results of the Biostack studies of the biological effects of high-energy cosmic rays are discussed. The biological mechanisms involved in possible harm due to cosmic rays are considered.

Effects of Positive Affect on Risk Perceptions in Adolescence and Young Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haase, Claudia M.; Silbereisen, Rainer K.

2011-01-01

Affective influences may play a key role in adolescent risk taking, but have rarely been studied. Using an audiovisual method of affect induction, two experimental studies examined the effect of positive affect on risk perceptions in adolescence and young adulthood. Outcomes were risk perceptions regarding drinking alcohol, smoking a cigarette,…

Risk Management for Study Abroad Programs: Issues and Resources to Inform Program Development, Administration, and Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhodes, Gary

2014-01-01

This chapter provides a practical background to the health and safety risks and challenges for U.S. colleges and universities and other program providers. Potential risks, field-based guidelines, good practices, and resources to support the management of risks by study abroad offices will be covered.

Behavioral Control and Reward Sensitivity in Adolescents' Risk Taking Behavior: A Longitudinal TRAILS Study.

PubMed

Peeters, Margot; Oldehinkel, Tineke; Vollebergh, Wilma

2017-01-01

Neurodevelopmental theories of risk behavior hypothesize that low behavioral control in combination with high reward sensitivity explains adolescents' risk behavior. However, empirical studies examining this hypothesis while including actual risk taking behavior in adolescence are lacking. In this study we tested whether the imbalance between behavioral control and reward sensitivity underlies risk taking behavior in adolescence, using a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 715 adolescents, of which 66% revealed an increased risk for mental health problems. To assess behavioral control at age 11 we used both self-report (effortful control) as well as behavioral measures of cognitive control (i.e., working memory and response inhibition). Reward sensitivity was assessed with the Bangor Gambling Task. The main finding of this study was that effortful control at age 11 was the best predictor of risk taking behavior (alcohol and cannabis use) at age 16, particularly among adolescents who were more reward sensitive. Risk taking behavior in adolescents might be explained by relatively weak behavioral control functioning combined with high sensitivity for reward.

Motives for volunteering are associated with mortality risk in older adults.

PubMed

Konrath, Sara; Fuhrel-Forbis, Andrea; Lou, Alina; Brown, Stephanie

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of motives for volunteering on respondents' mortality risk 4 years later. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine whether motives for volunteering predicted later mortality risk, above and beyond volunteering itself, in older adults from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Covariates included age, gender, socioeconomic variables, physical, mental, and cognitive health, health risk behaviors, personality traits, received social support, and actual volunteering behavior. Replicating prior work, respondents who volunteered were at lower risk for mortality 4 years later, especially those who volunteered more regularly and frequently. However, volunteering behavior was not always beneficially related to mortality risk: Those who volunteered for self-oriented reasons had a mortality risk similar to nonvolunteers. Those who volunteered for other-oriented reasons had a decreased mortality risk, even in adjusted models. This study adds to the existing literature on the powerful effects of social interactions on health and is the first study to our knowledge to examine the effect of motives on volunteers' subsequent mortality. Volunteers live longer than nonvolunteers, but this is only true if they volunteer for other-oriented reasons.

Dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of stroke: a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

PubMed Central

Tang, Zhenyu; Li, Min; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hou, Wenshang

2016-01-01

Objective To clarify and quantify the potential association between intake of flavonoids and risk of stroke. Design Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Data source Studies published before January 2016 identified through electronic searches using PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective cohort studies with relative risks and 95% CIs for stroke according to intake of flavonoids (assessed as dietary intake). Results The meta-analysis yielded 11 prospective cohort studies involving 356 627 participants and more than 5154 stroke cases. The pooled estimate of the multivariate relative risk of stroke for the highest compared with the lowest dietary flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.97; p=0.006). Dose-response analysis indicated that the summary relative risk of stroke for an increase of 100 mg flavonoids consumed per day was 0.91 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.08) without heterogeneity among studies (I2=0%). Stratifying by follow-up duration, the relative risk of stroke for flavonoid intake was 0.89 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.99) in studies with more than 10 years of follow-up. Conclusions Results from this meta-analysis suggest that higher dietary flavonoid intake may moderately lower the risk of stroke. PMID:27279473

Breast Cancer and Deodorants/Antiperspirants: a Systematic Review.

PubMed

Allam, Mohamed Farouk

2016-09-01

Over the last decade, the possible association between underarm deodorants/ antiperspirants use and breast cancer risk has raised important interest in the scientific community. The objective of our systematic review is to estimate the pooled risk of deodorants/antiperspirants use for breast cancer. All observational studies that evaluated the association between breast cancer risk and deodorants/antiperspirants use were reviewed. We have only identified two case-control studies, carried out between 2002 and 2006. The first study was conducted in USA and investigated the possible relationship between use of products applied for underarm perspiration and the risk for breast cancer in women aged 20-74 years. This population-based case-control study gathered information by in-person interview. The second study was conducted in Iraq and investigated the possible relationship between use of antiperspirants and the risk for breast cancer in women attending a teaching hospital. This study also gathered information by in-person interview. There was no risk of antiperspirants use in the pooled risk (odds ratio 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.35-0.46). Our comprehensive search has identified an insufficient number of studies to conduct a quantitative review and obtain reliable results. Further prospective studies are strongly needed. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2016

Coffee consumption is not associated with ovarian cancer risk: a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Berretta, Massimiliano; Micek, Agnieszka; Lafranconi, Alessandra; Rossetti, Sabrina; Di Francia, Raffaele; De Paoli, Paolo; Rossi, Paola; Facchini, Gaetano

2018-04-17

Coffee consumption has been associated with numerous cancers, but evidence on ovarian cancer risk is controversial. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis on prospective cohort studies in order to review the evidence on coffee consumption and risk of ovarian cancer. Studies were identified through searching the PubMed and MEDLINE databases up to March 2017. Risk estimates were retrieved from the studies, and dose-response analysis was modelled by using restricted cubic splines. Additionally, a stratified analysis by menopausal status was performed. A total of 8 studies were eligible for the dose-response meta-analysis. Studies included in the analysis comprised 787,076 participants and 3,541 ovarian cancer cases. The results showed that coffee intake was not associated with ovarian cancer risk (RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.26). Stratified and subgroup analysis showed consisted results. This comprehensive meta-analysis did not find evidence of an association between the consumption of coffee and risk of ovarian cancer.

Disease Risk Assessments Involving Companion Animals: an Overview for 15 Selected Pathogens Taking a European Perspective.

PubMed

Rijks, J M; Cito, F; Cunningham, A A; Rantsios, A T; Giovannini, A

2016-07-01

Prioritization of companion animal transmissible diseases was performed by the Companion Animals multisectoriaL interprofessionaL Interdisciplinary Strategic Think tank On zoonoses (CALLISTO) project. The project considered diseases occurring in domesticated species commonly kept as pets, such as dogs and cats, but also included diseases occurring in captive wild animals and production animal species. The prioritization process led to the selection of 15 diseases of prime public health relevance, agricultural economic importance, or both. An analysis was made of the current knowledge on the risk of occurrence and transmission of these diseases among companion animals, and from companion animals to man (zoonoses) or to livestock. The literature was scanned for risk assessments for these diseases. Studies were classified as import risk assessments (IRAs) or risk factor analyses (RFAs) in endemic areas. For those pathogens that are absent from Europe, only IRAs were considered; for pathogens present throughout Europe, only RFAs were considered. IRAs were identified for seven of the eight diseases totally or partially absent from Europe. IRAs for classical rabies and alveolar echinococcosis found an increased risk for introduction of the pathogen into officially disease-free areas as a consequence of abandoning national rules and adopting the harmonized EU rules for pet travel. IRAs for leishmaniosis focused on risk associated with the presence of persistently infected dogs in new geographical areas, taking into consideration the risk of disease establishment should a competent vector arise. IRAs for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever and West Nile fever indicated that the likelihood of introduction via companion animals was low. IRAs for bluetongue paid no attention to the risk of introduction via companion animals, which was also the case for IRAs for foot-and-mouth disease, the only disease considered to be absent from Europe. RFAs dealing with the risk factors for companion animals to become infected were identified for eight of the 14 diseases found in Europe or parts of it. RFAs for leptospirosis were most numerous (four studies). The host related risk factor 'age' was identified as significant for dogs in at least two RFAs for cystic echinococcosis and giardiasis. Among husbandry and healthcare related factors, 'eating (uncooked) offal', 'being free roaming' and 'poor deworming practice' were associated with risk for dogs in at least two RFAs for cystic echinococcosis, while 'having received recent veterinary treatment' was identified as a risk factor in at least two studies on infection with extended spectrum beta lactamase-producing bacteria, one in horses and the other in dogs and cats. Finally, although the environmental factors 'season' and 'hydrological density' were identified as significant risk factors for dogs in at least two RFAs for leptospirosis, the inconsistent case definitions used in those studies made comparison of study results problematic. RFAs considering the risk of people becoming infected from companion animals were identified for eight of the 14 diseases found in Europe or parts of it. RFAs for human campylobacteriosis were the most numerous (n = 6). Most studies made an assessment as to whether keeping a pet per se, or keeping a pet with supposed or known risk factors, was a risk factor for people relative to other risks. This allowed some studies to report the population attributable risk or population attributable fraction of the incidence of human disease due to companion animals (for campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis and toxoplasmosis), which is a measure that is easy to perceive for laymen and policy makers. No RFAs were found that dealt with the risk to food animals from companion animals for any of the 15 pathogens investigated. Few risk method-based studies were identified that provided information on risk factors for companion animals and on their role as a source of these 15 selected diseases, indicating a clear knowledge gap. There were not enough assessments for any of the 15 diseases to allow meta-analyses, whether these assessments dealt with companion animal disease risk or companion animal-associated human disease risk. Important method and technology gaps were the lack of harmonization in the case definitions used for a given disease and the lack of good diagnostics allowing pathogen identification to taxonomic levels that are meaningful for risk analysis. Molecular epidemiology studies on zoonotic pathogens, which included companion animals among the potential human risk factors, were not found, although such studies would provide good preliminary insights without requiring any tracing of people or any interviews. In addition to performing further risk studies that take into account these issues, there is a need for responsible pet ownership and continued education of professionals in companion animal zoonoses. Additional risk assessment studies should allow more targeted actions to reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases transferred via companion animals and provide information that will promote risk-awareness in healthy human-animal relationships. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Deterrence and Risk Preferences in Sequential Attacker-Defender Games with Continuous Efforts.

PubMed

Payyappalli, Vineet M; Zhuang, Jun; Jose, Victor Richmond R

2017-11-01

Most attacker-defender games consider players as risk neutral, whereas in reality attackers and defenders may be risk seeking or risk averse. This article studies the impact of players' risk preferences on their equilibrium behavior and its effect on the notion of deterrence. In particular, we study the effects of risk preferences in a single-period, sequential game where a defender has a continuous range of investment levels that could be strategically chosen to potentially deter an attack. This article presents analytic results related to the effect of attacker and defender risk preferences on the optimal defense effort level and their impact on the deterrence level. Numerical illustrations and some discussion of the effect of risk preferences on deterrence and the utility of using such a model are provided, as well as sensitivity analysis of continuous attack investment levels and uncertainty in the defender's beliefs about the attacker's risk preference. A key contribution of this article is the identification of specific scenarios in which the defender using a model that takes into account risk preferences would be better off than a defender using a traditional risk-neutral model. This study provides insights that could be used by policy analysts and decisionmakers involved in investment decisions in security and safety. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Lifetime risk of stroke in young-aged and middle-aged Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Liu, Jing; Wang, Wei; Wang, Miao; Qi, Yue; Xie, Wuxiang; Li, Yan; Sun, Jiayi; Liu, Jun; Zhao, Dong

2016-01-01

Objective: Stroke is a major cause of premature death in China. Early prevention of stroke requires a more effective method to differentiate the stroke risk among young-aged and middle-aged individuals than the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to establish a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts for the young-aged and middle-aged population in China. Methods: The Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study participants (n = 21 953) aged 35–84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for 18 years (263 016 person-years). Modified Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate the mean lifetime stroke risk up to age of 80 years and the lifetime stroke risk according to major stroke risk factors for the population aged 35–60 years. Results: A total of 917 participants developed first-ever strokes. For the participants aged 35–40 years (98 stroke cases), the lifetime stroke risk was 18.0 and 14.7% in men and women, respectively. Blood pressure most effectively discriminated the lifetime stroke risk. The lifetime risk of stroke for the individuals with all risk factors optimal was 8–10 times lower compared with those with two or more high risk factors at age 35–60 years at baseline. Conclusion: In young-aged and middle-aged population, the lifetime stroke risk will keep very low if major risk factors especially blood pressure level is at optimal levels, but the risk substantially increases even with a slight elevation of major risk factors, which could not be identified using 10-year risk estimation. PMID:27512963

Information security risk management for computerized health information systems in hospitals: a case study of Iran

PubMed Central

Zarei, Javad; Sadoughi, Farahnaz

2016-01-01

Background In recent years, hospitals in Iran – similar to those in other countries – have experienced growing use of computerized health information systems (CHISs), which play a significant role in the operations of hospitals. But, the major challenge of CHIS use is information security. This study attempts to evaluate CHIS information security risk management at hospitals of Iran. Materials and methods This applied study is a descriptive and cross-sectional research that has been conducted in 2015. The data were collected from 551 hospitals of Iran. Based on literature review, experts’ opinion, and observations at five hospitals, our intensive questionnaire was designed to assess security risk management for CHISs at the concerned hospitals, which was then sent to all hospitals in Iran by the Ministry of Health. Results Sixty-nine percent of the studied hospitals pursue information security policies and procedures in conformity with Iran Hospitals Accreditation Standards. At some hospitals, risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk estimation, as well as risk treatment, are unstructured without any specified approach or methodology. There is no significant structured approach to risk management at the studied hospitals. Conclusion Information security risk management is not followed by Iran’s hospitals and their information security policies. This problem can cause a large number of challenges for their CHIS security in future. Therefore, Iran’s Ministry of Health should develop practical policies to improve information security risk management in the hospitals of Iran. PMID:27313481

Developing Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula: a Systematic Review of Methodology and Reporting Quality.

PubMed

Wen, Zhang; Guo, Ya; Xu, Banghao; Xiao, Kaiyin; Peng, Tao; Peng, Minhao

2016-04-01

Postoperative pancreatic fistula is still a major complication after pancreatic surgery, despite improvements of surgical technique and perioperative management. We sought to systematically review and critically access the conduct and reporting of methods used to develop risk prediction models for predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases to identify articles published before January 1, 2015, which described the development of models to predict the risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula. We extracted information of developing a prediction model including study design, sample size and number of events, definition of postoperative pancreatic fistula, risk predictor selection, missing data, model-building strategies, and model performance. Seven studies of developing seven risk prediction models were included. In three studies (42 %), the number of events per variable was less than 10. The number of candidate risk predictors ranged from 9 to 32. Five studies (71 %) reported using univariate screening, which was not recommended in building a multivariate model, to reduce the number of risk predictors. Six risk prediction models (86 %) were developed by categorizing all continuous risk predictors. The treatment and handling of missing data were not mentioned in all studies. We found use of inappropriate methods that could endanger the development of model, including univariate pre-screening of variables, categorization of continuous risk predictors, and model validation. The use of inappropriate methods affects the reliability and the accuracy of the probability estimates of predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula.

Soy food intake and risk of gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Weng, Ke-Gui; Yuan, Ya-Ling

2017-01-01

Abstract Epidemiological studies were inconsistent on the association between soy food intake and risk of gastric cancer (GC). This study aimed to determine the role of soy food intake in the development of GC. A systematic search was conducted in PubMed and Web of Science to identify all relevant studies. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using a random-effects model, and the dose–response relationship between soy food intake and GC risk was also assessed. Thirteen prospective studies were identified with a total of 517,106 participants and 5800 cases. Among 11 types of soy food, high intake of total soy food (the highest vs the lowest category: RR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62–0.98) and nonfermented soy food (RR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.50–0.79) were inversely associated with GC risk, while high intake of miso soup was associated with the risk in male (RR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.02–1.36). In dose–response meta-analysis, total soy food intake (0–150 g/day) showed no significant association with GC risk, while high intake of nonfermented soy food was inversely related, especially an intake of more than 100 g/day. In male, miso soup intake (1–5 cups/day) was significantly associated with GC risk. High intake of nonfermented soy food might reduce the risk of GC, while miso soup intake might increase the risk in male. PMID:28816973

History of Severe Sunburn and Risk of Skin Cancer Among Women and Men in 2 Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Wu, Shaowei; Cho, Eunyoung; Li, Wen-Qing; Weinstock, Martin A.; Han, Jiali; Qureshi, Abrar A.

2016-01-01

Few studies have assessed the relationship between sunburn and risk of different skin cancers (melanoma, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC)) in prospective studies simultaneously, and little is known about the association of severe sunburns at different body sites with skin cancer risk. We used data on 87,166 women in the Nurses' Health Study (1982–2010) and 32,959 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1992–2010) to investigate skin cancer risk associated with history of severe sunburns at different body sites (face/arms, trunk, and lower limbs). After adjustment for other risk factors, overall baseline history of severe sunburn was more apparently associated with risk of melanoma than with risk of SCC and BCC in men (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were 2.41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32, 4.41) for melanoma, 1.48 (95% CI: 1.08, 2.03) for SCC, and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.32) for BCC) but not in women. Sunburn on the trunk appeared to be more closely associated with melanoma risk, but not risk of SCC and BCC, when compared with sunburns at other body sites (face/arms and lower limbs). These differences were more apparent in men than in women. Pending further investigation, our findings add novel insights to the existing literature on sunburn history and skin cancer risk. PMID:27045074

Does high sugar consumption exacerbate cardiometabolic risk factors and increase the risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease?

PubMed Central

Sonestedt, Emily; Øverby, Nina Cecilie; Laaksonen, David E.; Birgisdottir, Bryndis Eva

2012-01-01

Consumption of sugar has been relatively high in the Nordic countries; the impact of sugar intake on metabolic risk factors and related diseases has been debated. The objectives were to assess the effect of sugar intake (sugar-sweetened beverages, sucrose and fructose) on association with type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and related metabolic risk factors (impaired glucose tolerance, insulin sensitivity, dyslipidemia, blood pressure, uric acid, inflammation markers), and on all-cause mortality, through a systematic review of prospective cohort studies and randomised controlled intervention studies published between January 2000 and search dates. The methods adopted were as follows: the first search was run in PubMed in October 2010. A second search with uric acid as risk marker was run in April 2011. The total search strategy was rerun in April 2011 in SveMed+. An update was run in PubMed in January 2012. Two authors independently selected studies for inclusion from the 2,743 abstracts according to predefined eligibility criteria. The outcome was that out of the 17 studies extracted, 15 were prospective cohort studies and two were randomised controlled crossover trials. All of the studies included only adults. With respect to incident type 2 diabetes (nine studies), four of six prospective cohort studies found a significant positive association for sugar-sweetened beverage intake. In general, larger cohort studies with longer follow-up more often reported positive associations, and BMI seemed to mediate part of the increased risk. For other metabolic or cardiovascular risk factors or outcomes, too few studies have been published to draw conclusions. In conclusion, data from prospective cohort studies published in the years 2000–2011 suggest that sugar-sweetened beverages probably increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. For related metabolic risk factors, cardiovascular disease or all-cause mortality and other types of sugars, too few studies were available to draw conclusions. PMID:22855643

Sviluppi di Ricevitori E di Componentistica Per Banda 3 mm Ad INAF-OA Cagliari

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarrini, Alessandro

2017-11-01

L'INAF-OA Cagliari (OACa) sta sviluppando un ricevitore criogenico a basso rumore basato su un mixer SSB (Single Side Band) a superconduttore SIS (Superconductor-Insulator-Superconductor) per la banda 3 mm. Il ricevitore, acquistato da IRAM, è stato fortemente modificato per essere adattato al fuoco Gregoriano di SRT (Sardinia Radio Telescope). Lo strumento è caratterizzato da una nuova criogenia a ciclo chiuso 4 K (per evitare l'uso di elio liquido in antenna), da un nuovo oscillatore locale (di tipo ALMA Banda 3) e da un nuovo sistema di controllo e di monitoraggio basato su schede Raspberry ed Arduino sviluppato ad OACa. Verranno presentati i recenti sviluppi sul ricevitore, inclusi i risultati preliminari della misura della temperatura di rumore, che raggiunge un valore pari a Trec=66 K alla frequenza di 86 GHz, nonostante la criogenia non sia ancora ottimizzata. L'INAF-OACa è coinvolto nel progetto AETHRA (Advanced European Technologies for Heterodyne Receivers for Astronomy) nel quadro del programma Radionet/Horizon2020 per il quale sta contribuendo al WP1 (Work Package 1). Lo scopo del WP1 è di sviluppare e costruire un dimostratore di un array di ricevitori a doppia polarizzazione per la banda 3 mm basato su amplificatori criogenici a basso rumore (LNA) in tecnologia a semiconduttore MMIC. Nell'ambito del WP1 l'OACa ha in carico il progetto di un OrthomodeTransducer (OMT) in guida d'onda o in tecnologia planare per la banda 72-116 GHz che sia integrabile con amplificatori MMICs ed adatto all'integrazione in un array da installare nel piano focale di un radiotelescopio. Verranno presentati i design preliminari degli OMT per AETHRA, che sono basati su prototipi sviluppati in passato da OACa.

La Enseñanza/Aprendizaje del Modelo Sol-Tierra Análisis de la Situación Actual y Propuesta de Mejora Para la Formación de los Futuros Profesores de Primaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez Sebastià, Bernat

2004-12-01

This work is an extened summary of the autor's PhD thesis. It deals with the teaching of astronomy (day/night, seasons) in primary school. At first, students teachers' undestanding of astronomical concepts related to Sun-Earth system have been analysed. Taking into account the results of the previous analysis and using a socio-constructivist approach a teaching sequence has been designed. This sequence has been tested with different groups of students teachers showing an improvement in their undestanding of elementary astronomical concepts. El trabajo que presentamos es un resumen extenso de la tesis doctoral del autor. El enfoque utilizado ha sido tratar de ligar la investigación sobre las ideas, razonamientos y obstáculos de los profesores de primaria con la planificación de la enseñanza del modelo Sol-Tierra que permite explicar el ciclo día/noche y las estaciones. En primer lugar, se ha procedido a realizar un análisis crítico de los resultados que se obtienen en el aprendizaje de los contenidos astronómicos en la enseñanza habitual. En segundo lugar se ha diseñado un curriculum potencialmente superador de esta situación desde una orientación que concibe la enseñanza y el aprendizaje como un proceso de construcción de conocimientos en una estructura problematizada. Finalmente, esta secuencia didáctica ha sido experimentada con diferentes grupos de estudiantes de magisterio, mostrando una mejora relevante en la comprensión de los conceptos astronómicos fundamentales.

Actividad Solar Desde EL Espacio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovira, M. G.

1990-11-01

RESUMEN. Se describen los principales descubrimientos realizados por los arti+iciales con instrumentos dedicados a la observaci6n del Sol, durante los dos ultimos ciclos de su acti vi dad. La observaci6n el espacio ha permitido cubrir todas las zonas del espectro no observables desde tierra1 desde el ultravioleta hasta la radiaci6n gamma. Se hace referencia, en particular, a los resultados producidos por los dos grandes observatorios: el Skylab y el SMM. Este ultimo incluy6 un conjunto de instrumentos especialmente coordinados para observar en detalle las fulguraciones solares. Es un resumen para astr6nomos no especializados en la fisica solar, en el que se muestra que la gran riqueza del material observacional acumulado ha resuelto problemas preexistentes y, al mismo tiempo, ha abierto numerosos interrogantes a los que se buscar respuesta con la instrumentaci6n en desarrollo. Finalmente, se mencionan las caracteristicas de los proyectados para la pr6xima decada. : The main discoveries performed by artificial satellites instrumented for the observation of the Sun, during the last two cycles of its activity, are described. The space observations allowed of almost all the spectral regions which are not observable from the ground, from the ultraviolet to the gamma radiation. In particular, we ref er' to the two large solar space observatories: the Skylab and the SMM. The last one included a set 0+ coordinated instruments to observe in detail the solar flares. This is a summary for astronomers not dedicated to solar physics, where we show that the of observational material have solv# d many of the preexistent problems but, at the ame time, it opened many new questions to which the improved instrumentation will try to answer. , the characteristics of the satellites planned the next decade are mentioned. Key : SUN-ACTIVITY - SUN-CORONA - SUN-X-RAYS

Recommendations for the design of laboratory studies on non-target arthropods for risk assessment of genetically engineered plants

PubMed Central

Hellmich, Richard L.; Candolfi, Marco P.; Carstens, Keri; De Schrijver, Adinda; Gatehouse, Angharad M. R.; Herman, Rod A.; Huesing, Joseph E.; McLean, Morven A.; Raybould, Alan; Shelton, Anthony M.; Waggoner, Annabel

2010-01-01

This paper provides recommendations on experimental design for early-tier laboratory studies used in risk assessments to evaluate potential adverse impacts of arthropod-resistant genetically engineered (GE) plants on non-target arthropods (NTAs). While we rely heavily on the currently used proteins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) in this discussion, the concepts apply to other arthropod-active proteins. A risk may exist if the newly acquired trait of the GE plant has adverse effects on NTAs when they are exposed to the arthropod-active protein. Typically, the risk assessment follows a tiered approach that starts with laboratory studies under worst-case exposure conditions; such studies have a high ability to detect adverse effects on non-target species. Clear guidance on how such data are produced in laboratory studies assists the product developers and risk assessors. The studies should be reproducible and test clearly defined risk hypotheses. These properties contribute to the robustness of, and confidence in, environmental risk assessments for GE plants. Data from NTA studies, collected during the analysis phase of an environmental risk assessment, are critical to the outcome of the assessment and ultimately the decision taken by regulatory authorities on the release of a GE plant. Confidence in the results of early-tier laboratory studies is a precondition for the acceptance of data across regulatory jurisdictions and should encourage agencies to share useful information and thus avoid redundant testing. PMID:20938806

The Effects of Racial Discrimination on the HIV-risk Cognitions and Behaviors of Black Adolescents and Young Adults

PubMed Central

Stock, Michelle L.; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Peterson, Laurel M.; Gerrard, Meg

2012-01-01

Objective Two studies examined the impact of racial discrimination on HIV-risk (substance use and risky sex) behaviors (Study 1) and cognitions (Study 2) among African Americans. Methods Study 1 examined longer-term effects of cumulative discrimination on HIV-risk behaviors among 833 adolescents. In Study 2, Black young adults were excluded or included in an online game (Cyberball) by White peers. Results Study 1 revealed that discrimination was associated with greater HIV-risk behaviors contemporaneously, and with an increase in these behaviors over a three-year period. In Study 2, excluded participants tended to attribute their exclusion to racial discrimination and reported greater risky sex and substance use willingness. In Study 1, the relation between discrimination and risky sex was mediated by substance use behavior. In Study 2, substance use willingness mediated the relation between perceived discrimination and risky sex willingness. Conclusions Findings highlight the importance of examining the effects of discrimination on HIV-risk among Black youth. The studies also demonstrate the utility of assessing social-psychological processes when examining the effects of discrimination on HIV-risk cognitions and behavior. PMID:23646837

The effects of racial discrimination on the HIV-risk cognitions and behaviors of Black adolescents and young adults.

PubMed

Stock, Michelle L; Peterson, Laurel M; Gibbons, Frederick X; Gerrard, Meg

2013-05-01

Two studies examined the impact of racial discrimination on HIV-risk (substance use and risky sex) behaviors (Study 1) and cognitions (Study 2) among African Americans. Study 1 examined longer-term effects of cumulative discrimination on HIV-risk behaviors among 833 adolescents. In Study 2, Black young adults were excluded or included in an online game (Cyberball) by White peers. Study 1 revealed that discrimination was associated with greater HIV-risk behaviors contemporaneously, and with an increase in these behaviors over a 3-year period. In Study 2, excluded participants tended to attribute their exclusion to racial discrimination and reported greater risky sex and substance use willingness. In Study 1, the relation between discrimination and risky sex was mediated by substance use behavior. In Study 2, substance use willingness mediated the relation between perceived discrimination and risky sex willingness. Findings highlight the importance of examining the effects of discrimination on HIV risk among Black youth. The studies also demonstrate the utility of assessing social-psychological processes when examining the effects of discrimination on HIV-risk cognitions and behavior. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Geographic risk modeling of childhood cancer relative to county-level crops, hazardous air pollutants and population density characteristics in Texas.

PubMed

Thompson, James A; Carozza, Susan E; Zhu, Li

2008-09-25

Childhood cancer has been linked to a variety of environmental factors, including agricultural activities, industrial pollutants and population mixing, but etiologic studies have often been inconclusive or inconsistent when considering specific cancer types. More specific exposure assessments are needed. It would be helpful to optimize future studies to incorporate knowledge of high-risk locations or geographic risk patterns. The objective of this study was to evaluate potential geographic risk patterns in Texas accounting for the possibility that multiple cancers may have similar geographic risks patterns. A spatio-temporal risk modeling approach was used, whereby 19 childhood cancer types were modeled as potentially correlated within county-years. The standard morbidity ratios were modeled as functions of intensive crop production, intensive release of hazardous air pollutants, population density, and rapid population growth. There was supportive evidence for elevated risks for germ cell tumors and "other" gliomas in areas of intense cropping and for hepatic tumors in areas of intense release of hazardous air pollutants. The risk for Hodgkin lymphoma appeared to be reduced in areas of rapidly growing population. Elevated spatial risks included four cancer histotypes, "other" leukemias, Central Nervous System (CNS) embryonal tumors, CNS other gliomas and hepatic tumors with greater than 95% likelihood of elevated risks in at least one county. The Bayesian implementation of the Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive model provided a flexible approach to the spatial modeling of multiple childhood cancer histotypes. The current study identified geographic factors supporting more focused studies of germ cell tumors and "other" gliomas in areas of intense cropping, hepatic cancer near Hazardous Air Pollutant (HAP) release facilities and specific locations with increased risks for CNS embryonal tumors and for "other" leukemias. Further study should be performed to evaluate potentially lower risk for Hodgkin lymphoma and malignant bone tumors in counties with rapidly growing population.

Equine grass sickness in Scotland: a case-control study of signalment- and meteorology-related risk factors.

PubMed

Wylie, C E; Shaw, D J; Fordyce, F M; Lilly, A; McGorum, B C

2014-01-01

Equine grass sickness (EGS) remains a frequently fatal disease of equids in Britain. Since previous investigations of signalment- and meteorology-related risk factors for EGS have yielded some conflicting data, further investigation is warranted. To identify signalment- and meteorology-related risk factors for EGS in Scotland. Retrospective time-matched case-control study. This study was undertaken using data for 455 EGS cases and 910 time-matched controls that were referred to the Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, and average UK Meteorological Office weather station meteorological values from the month of admission of the animal, from the 3, 6 and 12 months prior to admission, and for the entire 1990-2006 period. Signalment-related risk factors associated with an increased risk of EGS were native Scottish pure breeds compared with crossbreeds (odds ratio [OR] = 3.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.43-5.43) and animals living on premises located further north within the study region (OR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.06-1.10). There was a decreased risk of EGS in animals aged 11-20 years compared with animals 2-10 years (OR = 0.32, 95% CI 0.22-0.45), non-native Scottish pure breeds compared with crossbreeds (OR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.54-0.94), and stallions compared with mares (OR = 0.43, 95% CI 0.22-0.86). Meteorology-related risk factors associated with an increased risk of EGS were (if Ordnance Survey northing is excluded) more sun hours (OR>1.43) and more frost days (OR>1.13), while there was a decreased risk of EGS with higher average maximum temperature (OR<0.83). The signalment-related risk factors will help owners identify high-risk animals, thereby allowing them to prioritise management strategies. The identification of meteorological risk factors may assist studies on the aetiology of EGS. © 2013 EVJ Ltd.

Ethnicity-related variation in breast cancer risk factors.

PubMed

Bernstein, Leslie; Teal, Cayla R; Joslyn, Sue; Wilson, Jerome

2003-01-01

A variety of factors are predictors of breast cancer risk. However, the studies conducted to establish these risk factors have rarely included African American women. The few studies with sufficient numbers of African-American women suggest that risk factors for breast cancer among African-American women are similar to those of white women. Although risk factors may be similar for African-American and white women, differences in the prevalence of risk factors may explain the differences in patterns of incidence. The authors reviewed the epidemiologic studies of breast cancer among African-American women and identified resources with information regarding the prevalence of risk factors among African American and white women. Considerable variation exists in the studies of breast cancer risk factors among African American women. Because few studies have included sufficient numbers of African-American women, no firm conclusions can be drawn regarding whether risk estimates for African American women differ from those of white women. Estimates of the prevalence of breast cancer risk factors indicate that African American and white women differ in terms of their ages at menarche, menstrual cycle patterns, birth rates, lactation histories, patterns of oral contraceptive use, levels of obesity, frequency of menopausal hormone use, physical activity patterns, and alcohol intake. The risk factor profile of African-American women appears to differ from that of white women. This may explain in part, the higher incidence rates for African Americans before age 45 years and the lower incidence rates at older ages. Discussions of these data at a workshop highlighted the need for future research on breast cancer risk among African Americans. This research should acknowledge the heterogeneous heritage, cultural beliefs, and cultural knowledge of African-American women. Studies conducted in collaboration with the African-American community of women and with the breast cancer advocacy community can benefit from assistance in the design of questionnaires and recruitment of participants.

Metabolite Profiling and Cardiovascular Event Risk: A Prospective Study of Three Population-Based Cohorts

PubMed Central

Würtz, Peter; Havulinna, Aki S; Soininen, Pasi; Tynkkynen, Tuulia; Prieto-Merino, David; Tillin, Therese; Ghorbani, Anahita; Artati, Anna; Wang, Qin; Tiainen, Mika; Kangas, Antti J; Kettunen, Johannes; Kaikkonen, Jari; Mikkilä, Vera; Jula, Antti; Kähönen, Mika; Lehtimäki, Terho; Lawlor, Debbie A; Gaunt, Tom R; Hughes, Alun D; Sattar, Naveed; Illig, Thomas; Adamski, Jerzy; Wang, Thomas J; Perola, Markus; Ripatti, Samuli; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Raitakari, Olli T; Gerszten, Robert E; Casas, Juan-Pablo; Chaturvedi, Nish; Ala-Korpela, Mika; Salomaa, Veikko

2015-01-01

Background High-throughput profiling of circulating metabolites may improve cardiovascular risk prediction over established risk factors. Methods and Results We applied quantitative NMR metabolomics to identify biomarkers for incident cardiovascular disease during long-term follow-up. Biomarker discovery was conducted in the FINRISK study (n=7256; 800 events). Replication and incremental risk prediction was assessed in the SABRE study (n=2622; 573 events) and British Women’s Health and Heart Study (n=3563; 368 events). In targeted analyses of 68 lipids and metabolites, 33 measures were associated with incident cardiovascular events at P<0.0007 after adjusting for age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes and medication. When further adjusting for routine lipids, four metabolites were associated with future cardiovascular events in meta-analyses: higher serum phenylalanine (hazard ratio per standard deviation: 1.18 [95%CI 1.12–1.24]; P=4×10−10) and monounsaturated fatty acid levels (1.17 [1.11–1.24]; P=1×10−8) were associated with increased cardiovascular risk, while higher omega-6 fatty acids (0.89 [0.84–0.94]; P=6×10−5) and docosahexaenoic acid levels (0.90 [0.86–0.95]; P=5×10−5) were associated with lower risk. A risk score incorporating these four biomarkers was derived in FINRISK. Risk prediction estimates were more accurate in the two validation cohorts (relative integrated discrimination improvement 8.8% and 4.3%), albeit discrimination was not enhanced. Risk classification was particularly improved for persons in the 5–10% risk range (net reclassification 27.1% and 15.5%). Biomarker associations were further corroborated with mass spectrometry in FINRISK (n=671) and the Framingham Offspring Study (n=2289). Conclusions Metabolite profiling in large prospective cohorts identified phenylalanine, monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids as biomarkers for cardiovascular risk. This study substantiates the value of high-throughput metabolomics for biomarker discovery and improved risk assessment. PMID:25573147

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk case study: a framework for assessing climate change risks to forest carbon stocks

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke

2012-01-01

Forest ecosystems have the ability to reduce the effects of climate change through the sequestration of carbon (C) (Pan et al. 2011) as well as contribute to net emissions through disturbance events such as wildfires and widespread tree mortality (Kurz et al. 2008). A conceptual framework for assessing climate-change risks to forest ecosystem C stocks facilitates...

Mind the Gap: Bridging economic and naturalistic risk-taking with cognitive neuroscience

PubMed Central

Schonberg, Tom; Fox, Craig R.; Poldrack, Russell A.

2010-01-01

Economists define risk in terms of variability of possible outcomes whereas clinicians and laypeople generally view risk as exposure to possible loss or harm. Neuroeconomic studies using relatively simple behavioral tasks have identified a network of brain regions that respond to economic risk, but these studies have had limited success predicting naturalistic risk-taking. In contrast, more complex behavioral tasks developed by clinicians (e.g., Balloon Analogue Risk Task and Iowa Gambling Task) correlate with naturalistic risk-taking but resist decomposition into distinct cognitive constructs. We propose that to bridge this gap and better understand neural substrates of naturalistic risk-taking, new tasks are needed that: (1) are decomposable into basic cognitive/economic constructs; (2) predict naturalistic risk-taking; and (3) engender dynamic, affective engagement. PMID:21130018

How to Shape Climate Risk Policies After the Paris Agreement? The Importance of Perceptions as a Driver for Climate Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Máñez Costa, María.; Shreve, Cheney; Carmona, María.

2017-10-01