Tropical North Atlantic subsurface temperature anomalies: evidence for AMOC variability across Dansgaard-Oscheger events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, A. O.; Schmidt, M. W.; Chang, P.

2013-12-01

A common mechanism often proposed to explain the abrupt climate events of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3), known as Dansgaard-Oscheger (D-O) cycles, invokes variability in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Although proxy evidence shows that D-O cycles resulted in large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation patterns around the planet, an understanding of how the AMOC varied across these events remains unclear. Coupled ocean-atmosphere models demonstrate that AMOC variability is linked to abrupt change in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) through both oceanic and atmospheric processes. A reduction in AMOC causes a subsurface oceanic warming in the TNA as the western boundary current slows, allowing the warm salinity maximum waters to enter the deep tropics. Recently, Schmidt et al. (2012) identified an abrupt subsurface warming at the onset of AMOC slow down during both Heinrich 1 and the Younger Dryas, suggesting this signal may be a robust feature of AMOC variability in the TNA. In order to determine if AMOC variability was the driver of D-O cycles during MIS 3, we present new, high-resolution Mg/Ca and δ18O records from the near-surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera G. ruber and the lower-thermocline dwelling planktonic foraminifera G. crassaformis from 22 - 52 ka BP in southern Caribbean core VM12-107 (11.33oN, 66.63oW, 1079m depth). Sedimentation rates in VM12-107 average 24cm/kyr, providing high temporal resolution able to resolve millennial-scale events. The G. ruber δ18O record shows abrupt oscillations up to 1‰ as well as Mg/Ca-based SST changes of 1.5 - 2oC that are synchronous with some D-O cycles recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Given our ability to resolve D-O cycles in the planktonic record, we find that Mg/Ca ratios from G. crassaformis were, on average, 0.13 × 0.04 mmol/mol higher during stadials. This equates to a temperature increase during stadials of up to 1.5oC. These results imply that AMOC variability played an important role in at least some millennial-scale D-O cycles during MIS 3.

The role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

PubMed

Yan, Xiaoqin; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R

2017-11-22

Observed Atlantic major hurricane frequency has exhibited pronounced multidecadal variability since the 1940s. However, the cause of this variability is debated. Using observations and a coupled earth system model (GFDL-ESM2G), here we show that the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005-2015 is associated with a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) inferred from ocean observations. Directly observed North Atlantic sulfate aerosol optical depth has not increased (but shows a modest decline) over this period, suggesting the decline of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency during 2005-2015 is not likely due to recent changes in anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. Instead, we find coherent multidecadal variations involving the inferred AMOC and Atlantic major hurricane frequency, along with indices of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and inverted vertical wind shear. Our results provide evidence for an important role of the AMOC in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

Response of North Atlantic Ocean Chlorophyll a to the Change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Min; Zhang, Yuanling; Shu, Qi; Zhao, Chang; Wang, Gang; Wu, Zhaohua; Qiao, Fangli

2017-04-01

Changes in marine phytoplankton are a vital component in global carbon cycling. Despite this far-reaching importance, the variable trend in phytoplankton and its response to climate variability remain unclear. This work presents the spatiotemporal evolution of the chlorophyll a trend in the North Atlantic Ocean by using merged ocean color products for the period 1997-2016. We find a dipole pattern between the subpolar gyre and the Gulf Stream path,and chlorophyll a trend signal propagatedalong the opposite direction of the North Atlantic Current. Such a dipole pattern and opposite propagation of chlorophyll a signal are consistent with the recent distinctive signature of the slowdown of the Atlantic MeridionalOverturning Circulation (AMOC). It is suggested that the spatiotemporal evolution of chlorophyll a during the two most recent decades is a part of the multidecadal variation and regulated byAMOC, which could be used as an indicator of AMOC variations.

North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Böning, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra; Canuto, Vittorio M.; Cassou, Christophe; Chassignet, Eric; Coward, Andrew C.; Danilov, Sergey; Diansky, Nikolay; Drange, Helge; Farneti, Riccardo; Fernandez, Elodie; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Forget, Gael; Fujii, Yosuke; Griffies, Stephen M.; Gusev, Anatoly; Heimbach, Patrick; Howard, Armando; Ilicak, Mehmet; Jung, Thomas; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Kelley, Maxwell; Large, William G.; Leboissetier, Anthony; Lu, Jianhua; Madec, Gurvan; Marsland, Simon J.; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio; Nurser, A. J. George; Pirani, Anna; Romanou, Anastasia; Salas y Mélia, David; Samuels, Bonita L.; Scheinert, Markus; Sidorenko, Dmitry; Sun, Shan; Treguier, Anne-Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Valcke, Sophie; Voldoire, Aurore; Wang, Qiang; Yashayaev, Igor

2016-01-01

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments Phase II (CORE-II) . Part II; Inter-Annual to Decadal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Boening, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra;

Strong and deep Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last glacial cycle.

PubMed

Böhm, E; Lippold, J; Gutjahr, M; Frank, M; Blaser, P; Antz, B; Fohlmeister, J; Frank, N; Andersen, M B; Deininger, M

2015-01-01

Extreme, abrupt Northern Hemisphere climate oscillations during the last glacial cycle (140,000 years ago to present) were modulated by changes in ocean circulation and atmospheric forcing. However, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which has a role in controlling heat transport from low to high latitudes and in ocean CO2 storage, is still poorly constrained beyond the Last Glacial Maximum. Here we show that a deep and vigorous overturning circulation mode has persisted for most of the last glacial cycle, dominating ocean circulation in the Atlantic, whereas a shallower glacial mode with southern-sourced waters filling the deep western North Atlantic prevailed during glacial maxima. Our results are based on a reconstruction of both the strength and the direction of the AMOC during the last glacial cycle from a highly resolved marine sedimentary record in the deep western North Atlantic. Parallel measurements of two independent chemical water tracers (the isotope ratios of (231)Pa/(230)Th and (143)Nd/(144)Nd), which are not directly affected by changes in the global cycle, reveal consistent responses of the AMOC during the last two glacial terminations. Any significant deviations from this configuration, resulting in slowdowns of the AMOC, were restricted to centennial-scale excursions during catastrophic iceberg discharges of the Heinrich stadials. Severe and multicentennial weakening of North Atlantic Deep Water formation occurred only during Heinrich stadials close to glacial maxima with increased ice coverage, probably as a result of increased fresh-water input. In contrast, the AMOC was relatively insensitive to submillennial meltwater pulses during warmer climate states, and an active AMOC prevailed during Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadials (Greenland warm periods).

Forced Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Past Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halloran, P. R.; Reynolds, D.; Scourse, J. D.; Hall, I. R.

2016-02-01

Paul R. Halloran, David J. Reynolds, Ian R. Hall and James D. Scourse Multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) plays a first order role in determining regional atmospheric circulation and moisture transport, with major climatic consequences. These regional climate impacts range from drought in the Sahel and South America, though increased hurricane activity and temperature extremes, to modified monsoonal rainfall. Multidecadal Atlantic SST variability could arise through internal variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (e.g., Knight et al., 2006), or through externally forced change (e.g. Booth et al., 2012). It is critical that we know whether internal or external forcing dominates if we are to provide useful near-term climate projections in the Atlantic region. A persuasive argument that internal variability plays an important role in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is that periodic SST variability has been observed throughout much of the last millennium (Mann et al., 2009), and the hypothesized external forcing of historical Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (Booth et al., 2012) is largely anthropogenic in origin. Here we combine the first annually-resolved millennial marine reconstruction with multi-model analysis, to show that the Atlantic SST variability of the last millennium can be explained by a combination of direct volcanic forcing, and indirect, forced, AMOC variability. Our results indicate that whilst climate models capture the timing of both the directly forced SST and forced AMOC-mediated SST variability, the models fail to capture the magnitude of the forced AMOC change. Does this mean that models underestimate the 21st century reduction in AMOC strength? J. Knight, C. Folland and A. Scaife., Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, GRL, 2006 B.B.B Booth, N. Dunstone, P.R. Halloran et al., Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability, Nature, 2012 M.E. Mann, Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford et al., Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 2009

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation over time: a Nd isotope perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, S. L.; Pena, L. D.; Yehudai, M.; Seguí, M. J.; Kim, J.; Knudson, K. P.; Basak, C.

2017-12-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major means for distributing heat between the tropics and the high latitudes, and thus its temporal variability has major impacts on ice age cycles. We present a summary of work in-progress to generate north-south profiles of the AMOC from the North Atlantic to the Southern Ocean, at various time slices over the past 2 Ma, based on Nd isotopes in Fe-Mn oxide encrusted foraminifera and fish debris. Our sites show a consistent north-south gradient in the North Atlantic source water (NSW) signal strength throughout, providing strong evidence that the data represent the fluctuations of the AMOC. The North Atlantic data show strong evidence that the eNd of the NSW end-member remained similar to today through this time interval (Kim et al. this meeting). We have identified 5 modes of the AMOC circulation. The most common ones are the (1) "interglacial norm" where the NSW signal remains strong into the South Atlantic similar to the present-day, and the (2) "glacial norm" where moderate southern source water (SSW) signals extend into the deep North Atlantic. Less common are the (3) "weak AMOC" mode, typical of Heinrich events, the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), and MIS 10,16, where even the deep North Atlantic shows a strong SSW signal, and its counterpart the (4) "ultra-strong AMOC", in MIS 9, 11, 19, 21 and 25, when the NSW signal is unusually strong south of the equator. Finally, during the (5) "pre-MPT" mode, in MIS 26 and 27, uniquely low Nd isotope ratios in the North Atlantic signals major input of Nd from the Canadian Shield directly preceding the MPT AMOC crisis (Pena and Goldstein, Science 2014), reflecting events there that likely triggered it. Overall we expect that the AMOC profiles will be useful as a means to directly relate climate to concurrent ocean circulation through time.

Timing and nature of AMOC recovery across Termination 2 and magnitude of deglacial CO2 change.

PubMed

Deaney, Emily L; Barker, Stephen; van de Flierdt, Tina

2017-02-27

Large amplitude variations in atmospheric CO 2 were associated with glacial terminations of the Late Pleistocene. Here we provide multiple lines of evidence suggesting that the ∼20 p.p.m.v. overshoot in CO 2 at the end of Termination 2 (T2) ∼129 ka was associated with an abrupt (≤400 year) deepening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In contrast to Termination 1 (T1), which was interrupted by the Bølling-Allerød (B-A), AMOC recovery did not occur until the very end of T2, and was characterized by pronounced formation of deep waters in the NW Atlantic. Considering the variable influences of ocean circulation change on atmospheric CO 2 , we suggest that the net change in CO 2 across the last 2 terminations was approximately equal if the transient effects of deglacial oscillations in ocean circulation are taken into account.

Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC yields a NAO-like pattern with intensified Icelandic low and Azores high, and a warming of 0.25-0.5 °C of the central North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST). The reanalysis forced simulations indicate a coupling between the Labrador Sea Water production rate and an equatorial Atlantic SST index in accordance with observations. This coupling is not identified in the coupled simulation.

The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Ayako; Palter, Jaime B

2016-03-15

Northern Hemisphere climate responds sensitively to multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). It is therefore surprising that an imprint of such variability is conspicuously absent in wintertime western European temperature, despite that Europe's climate is strongly influenced by its neighbouring ocean, where multidecadal variability in basin-average SST persists in all seasons. Here we trace the cause of this missing imprint to a dynamic anomaly of the atmospheric circulation that masks its thermodynamic response to SST anomalies. Specifically, differences in the pathways Lagrangian particles take to Europe during anomalous SST winters suppress the expected fluctuations in air-sea heat exchange accumulated along those trajectories. Because decadal variability in North Atlantic-average SST may be driven partly by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the atmosphere's dynamical adjustment to this mode of variability may have important implications for the European wintertime temperature response to a projected twenty-first century AMOC decline.

The North Atlantic Ocean Is in a State of Reduced Overturning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smeed, D. A.; Josey, S. A.; Beaulieu, C.; Johns, W. E.; Moat, B. I.; Frajka-Williams, E.; Rayner, D.; Meinen, C. S.; Baringer, M. O.; Bryden, H. L.; McCarthy, G. D.

2018-02-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for a variable and climatically important northward transport of heat. Using data from an array of instruments that span the Atlantic at 26°N, we show that the AMOC has been in a state of reduced overturning since 2008 as compared to 2004-2008. This change of AMOC state is concurrent with other changes in the North Atlantic such as a northward shift and broadening of the Gulf Stream and altered patterns of heat content and sea surface temperature. These changes resemble the response to a declining AMOC predicted by coupled climate models. Concurrent changes in air-sea fluxes close to the western boundary reveal that the changes in ocean heat transport and sea surface temperature have altered the pattern of ocean-atmosphere heat exchange over the North Atlantic. These results provide strong observational evidence that the AMOC is a major factor in decadal-scale variability of North Atlantic climate.

Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years.

PubMed

Thornalley, David J R; Oppo, Delia W; Ortega, Pablo; Robson, Jon I; Brierley, Chris M; Davis, Renee; Hall, Ian R; Moffa-Sanchez, Paola; Rose, Neil L; Spooner, Peter T; Yashayaev, Igor; Keigwin, Lloyd D

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that has an essential role in Earth's climate, redistributing heat and influencing the carbon cycle 1, 2 . The AMOC has been shown to be weakening in recent years 1 ; this decline may reflect decadal-scale variability in convection in the Labrador Sea, but short observational datasets preclude a longer-term perspective on the modern state and variability of Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC 1, 3-5 . Here we provide several lines of palaeo-oceanographic evidence that Labrador Sea deep convection and the AMOC have been anomalously weak over the past 150 years or so (since the end of the Little Ice Age, LIA, approximately AD 1850) compared with the preceding 1,500 years. Our palaeoclimate reconstructions indicate that the transition occurred either as a predominantly abrupt shift towards the end of the LIA, or as a more gradual, continued decline over the past 150 years; this ambiguity probably arises from non-AMOC influences on the various proxies or from the different sensitivities of these proxies to individual components of the AMOC. We suggest that enhanced freshwater fluxes from the Arctic and Nordic seas towards the end of the LIA-sourced from melting glaciers and thickened sea ice that developed earlier in the LIA-weakened Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC. The lack of a subsequent recovery may have resulted from hysteresis or from twentieth-century melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet 6 . Our results suggest that recent decadal variability in Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC has occurred during an atypical, weak background state. Future work should aim to constrain the roles of internal climate variability and early anthropogenic forcing in the AMOC weakening described here.

Recent slowing of Atlantic overturning circulation as a recovery from earlier strengthening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Laura C.; Peterson, K. Andrew; Roberts, Chris D.; Wood, Richard A.

2016-07-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has weakened substantially over the past decade. Some weakening may already have occurred over the past century, and global climate models project further weakening in response to anthropogenic climate change. Such a weakening could have significant impacts on the surface climate. However, ocean model simulations based on historical conditions have often found an increase in overturning up to the mid-1990s, followed by a decrease. It is therefore not clear whether the observed weakening over the past decade is part of decadal variability or a persistent weakening. Here we examine a state-of-the-art global-ocean reanalysis product, GloSea5, which covers the years 1989 to 2015 and closely matches observations of the AMOC at 26.5° N, capturing the interannual variability and decadal trend with unprecedented accuracy. The reanalysis data place the ten years of observations--April 2004 to February 2014--into a longer-term context and suggest that the observed decrease in the overturning circulation is consistent with a recovery following a previous increase. We find that density anomalies that propagate southwards from the Labrador Sea are the most likely cause of these variations. We conclude that decadal variability probably played a key role in the decline of the AMOC observed over the past decade.

Stronger Ocean Meridinal Heat Transport with a Weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sevellec, F.; Fedorov, A. V.

2014-12-01

It is typically assumed that oceanic heat transport is well and positively correlated with the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC). In numerical "water-hosing" experiments, for example, imposing an anomalous freshwater flux in the northern hemisphere leads to a slow-down of the AMOC and a corresponding reduction of the northward heat transport. Here, we study the sensitivity of the heat transport to surface freshwater fluxes using a generalized stability analysis and find that, while the direct relationship between the AMOC and heat transport holds on shorter time scales, it completely reverses on timescales longer than ~500 yr. That is, a reduction in the AMOC volume transport can actually lead to a stronger heat transport on those long timescales, which results from the gradual increase in ocean thermal stratification. We discuss the implications of these results for the problem of steady state (statistically equilibrium) in ocean and climate GCM as well as various paleoclimate problems such as millennial climate variability and the maintenance of equable climate states.

An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, Lesley; Hawkins, Ed; Woollings, Tim

2015-01-01

Many previous studies have shown that unforced climate model simulations exhibit decadal-scale fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and that this variability can have impacts on surface climate fields. However, the robustness of these surface fingerprints across different models is less clear. Furthermore, with the potential for coupled feedbacks that may amplify or damp the response, it is not known whether the associated climate signals are linearly related to the strength of the AMOC changes, or if the fluctuation events exhibit nonlinear behaviour with respect to their strength or polarity. To explore these questions, we introduce an objective and flexible method for identifying the largest natural AMOC fluctuation events in multicentennial/multimillennial simulations of a variety of coupled climate models. The characteristics of the events are explored, including their magnitude, meridional coherence and spatial structure, as well as links with ocean heat transport and the horizontal circulation. The surface fingerprints in ocean temperature and salinity are examined, and compared with the results of linear regression analysis. It is found that the regressions generally provide a good indication of the surface changes associated with the largest AMOC events. However, there are some exceptions, including a nonlinear change in the atmospheric pressure signal, particularly at high latitudes, in HadCM3. Some asymmetries are also found between the changes associated with positive and negative AMOC events in the same model. Composite analysis suggests that there are signals that are robust across the largest AMOC events in each model, which provides reassurance that the surface changes associated with one particular event will be similar to those expected from regression analysis. However, large differences are found between the AMOC fingerprints in different models, which may hinder the prediction and attribution of such events in reality.

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: a perfect model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Nguyen, Sébastien

2017-11-01

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is thought to be a crucial component of the North Atlantic climate, past changes in its strength are challenging to quantify, and only limited information is available. In this study, we use a perfect model approach with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to assess the performance of several surface nudging techniques in reconstructing the variability of the AMOC. Special attention is given to the reproducibility of an extreme positive AMOC peak from a preindustrial control simulation. Nudging includes standard relaxation techniques towards the sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies of this target control simulation, and/or the prescription of the wind-stress fields. Surface nudging approaches using standard fixed restoring terms succeed in reproducing most of the target AMOC variability, including the timing of the extreme event, but systematically underestimate its amplitude. A detailed analysis of the AMOC variability mechanisms reveals that the underestimation of the extreme AMOC maximum comes from a deficit in the formation of the dense water masses in the main convection region, located south of Iceland in the model. This issue is largely corrected after introducing a novel surface nudging approach, which uses a varying restoring coefficient that is proportional to the simulated mixed layer depth, which, in essence, keeps the restoring time scale constant. This new technique substantially improves water mass transformation in the regions of convection, and in particular, the formation of the densest waters, which are key for the representation of the AMOC extreme. It is therefore a promising strategy that may help to better constrain the AMOC variability and other ocean features in the models. As this restoring technique only uses surface data, for which better and longer observations are available, it opens up opportunities for improved reconstructions of the AMOC over the last few decades.

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: A perfect model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Pablo; Guilyardi, Eric; Swingedouw, Didier; Mignot, Juliette; Nguyen, Sebastien

2017-04-01

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is thought to be a crucial component of the North Atlantic climate and its predictability, past changes in its strength are challenging to quantify, and only limited information is available. In this study, we use a perfect model approach with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to assess the performance of several surface nudging techniques in reconstructing the variability of the AMOC. Special attention is given to the reproducibility of an extreme positive AMOC peak from a preindustrial control simulation. Nudging includes standard relaxation techniques towards the sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies of this target control simulation, and/or the prescription of the wind-stress fields. Surface nudging approaches using standard fixed restoring terms succeed in reproducing most of the target AMOC variability, including the timing of the extreme event, but systematically underestimate its amplitude. A detailed analysis of the AMOC variability mechanisms reveals that the underestimation of the extreme AMOC maximum comes from a deficit in the formation of the dense water masses in the main convection region, located south of Iceland in the model. This issue is largely corrected after introducing a novel surface nudging approach, which uses a varying restoring coefficient that is proportional to the simulated mixed layer depth, which, in essence, keeps the restoring time scale constant. This new technique substantially improves water mass transformation in the regions of convection, and in particular, the formation of the densest waters, which are key for the representation of the AMOC extreme. It is therefore a promising strategy that may help to better initialize the AMOC variability and other ocean features in the models, and thus improve decadal climate predictions. As this restoring technique only uses surface data, for which better and longer observations are available, it opens up opportunities for improved reconstructions of the AMOC over the last few decades.

Timing and nature of AMOC recovery across Termination 2 and magnitude of deglacial CO2 change

PubMed Central

Deaney, Emily L.; Barker, Stephen; van de Flierdt, Tina

2017-01-01

Large amplitude variations in atmospheric CO2 were associated with glacial terminations of the Late Pleistocene. Here we provide multiple lines of evidence suggesting that the ∼20 p.p.m.v. overshoot in CO2 at the end of Termination 2 (T2) ∼129 ka was associated with an abrupt (≤400 year) deepening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In contrast to Termination 1 (T1), which was interrupted by the Bølling-Allerød (B-A), AMOC recovery did not occur until the very end of T2, and was characterized by pronounced formation of deep waters in the NW Atlantic. Considering the variable influences of ocean circulation change on atmospheric CO2, we suggest that the net change in CO2 across the last 2 terminations was approximately equal if the transient effects of deglacial oscillations in ocean circulation are taken into account. PMID:28239149

Predictability of Subsurface Temperature and the AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Y.; Schubert, S. D.

2013-12-01

GEOS 5 coupled model is extensively used for experimental decadal climate prediction. Understanding the limits of decadal ocean predictability is critical for making progress in these efforts. Using this model, we study the subsurface temperature initial value predictability, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its impacts on the global climate. Our approach is to utilize the idealized data assimilation technology developed at the GMAO. The technique 'replay' allows us to assess, for example, the impact of the surface wind stresses and/or precipitation on the ocean in a very well controlled environment. By running the coupled model in replay mode we can in fact constrain the model using any existing reanalysis data set. We replay the model constraining (nudging) it to the MERRA reanalysis in various fields from 1948-2012. The fields, u,v,T,q,ps, are adjusted towards the 6-hourly analyzed fields in atmosphere. The simulated AMOC variability is studied with a 400-year-long segment of replay integration. The 84 cases of 10-year hindcasts are initialized from 4 different replay cycles. Here, the variability and predictability are examined further by a measure to quantify how much the subsurface temperature and AMOC variability has been influenced by atmospheric forcing and by ocean internal variability. The simulated impact of the AMOC on the multi-decadal variability of the SST, sea surface height (SSH) and sea ice extent is also studied.

Unstable AMOC during glacial intervals and millennial variability: The role of mean sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sévellec, Florian; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-11-01

A striking feature of paleoclimate records is the greater stability of the Holocene epoch relative to the preceding glacial interval, especially apparent in the North Atlantic region. In particular, strong irregular variability with an approximately 1500 yr period, known as the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, punctuates the last glaciation, but is absent during the interglacial. Prevailing theories, modeling and data suggest that these events, seen as abrupt warming episodes in Greenland ice cores and sea surface temperature records in the North Atlantic, are linked to reorganizations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study, using a new low-order ocean model that reproduces a realistic power spectrum of millennial variability, we explore differences in the AMOC stability between glacial and interglacial intervals of the 100 kyr glacial cycle of the Late Pleistocene (1 kyr = 1000 yr). Previous modeling studies show that the edge of sea ice in the North Atlantic shifts southward during glacial intervals, moving the region of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation and the AMOC also southward. Here we demonstrate that, by shifting the AMOC with respect to the mean atmospheric precipitation field, such a displacement makes the system unstable, which explains chaotic millennial variability during the glacials and the persistence of stable ocean conditions during the interglacials.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation.

PubMed

Clement, Amy; Bellomo, Katinka; Murphy, Lisa N; Cane, Mark A; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Rädel, Gaby; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-10-16

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a major mode of climate variability with important societal impacts. Most previous explanations identify the driver of the AMO as the ocean circulation, specifically the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we show that the main features of the observed AMO are reproduced in models where the ocean heat transport is prescribed and thus cannot be the driver. Allowing the ocean circulation to interact with the atmosphere does not significantly alter the characteristics of the AMO in the current generation of climate models. These results suggest that the AMO is the response to stochastic forcing from the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, with thermal coupling playing a role in the tropics. In this view, the AMOC and other ocean circulation changes would be largely a response to, not a cause of, the AMO. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-12-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

PubMed Central

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

2014-12-08

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S.-I.; Fan, Y.; Evans, J. P.; Caesar, L.

2018-06-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios.

Late Holocene sea level variability and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Farmer, Jesse R.; Marzen, R. E.; Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J.C.

2014-01-01

Pre-twentieth century sea level (SL) variability remains poorly understood due to limits of tide gauge records, low temporal resolution of tidal marsh records, and regional anomalies caused by dynamic ocean processes, notably multidecadal changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examined SL and AMOC variability along the eastern United States over the last 2000 years, using a SL curve constructed from proxy sea surface temperature (SST) records from Chesapeake Bay, and twentieth century SL-sea surface temperature (SST) relations derived from tide gauges and instrumental SST. The SL curve shows multidecadal-scale variability (20–30 years) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), as well as the twentieth century. During these SL oscillations, short-term rates ranged from 2 to 4 mm yr−1, roughly similar to those of the last few decades. These oscillations likely represent internal modes of climate variability related to AMOC variability and originating at high latitudes, although the exact mechanisms remain unclear. Results imply that dynamic ocean changes, in addition to thermosteric, glacio-eustatic, or glacio-isostatic processes are an inherent part of SL variability in coastal regions, even during millennial-scale climate oscillations such as the MCA and LIA and should be factored into efforts that use tide gauges and tidal marsh sediments to understand global sea level rise.

The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Ayako; Palter, Jaime B.

2016-01-01

Northern Hemisphere climate responds sensitively to multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). It is therefore surprising that an imprint of such variability is conspicuously absent in wintertime western European temperature, despite that Europe's climate is strongly influenced by its neighbouring ocean, where multidecadal variability in basin-average SST persists in all seasons. Here we trace the cause of this missing imprint to a dynamic anomaly of the atmospheric circulation that masks its thermodynamic response to SST anomalies. Specifically, differences in the pathways Lagrangian particles take to Europe during anomalous SST winters suppress the expected fluctuations in air–sea heat exchange accumulated along those trajectories. Because decadal variability in North Atlantic-average SST may be driven partly by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the atmosphere's dynamical adjustment to this mode of variability may have important implications for the European wintertime temperature response to a projected twenty-first century AMOC decline. PMID:26975331

Timing of Deglacial AMOC Variability From a High-Resolution Seawater Cadmium Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valley, Shannon; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean; Marchitto, Thomas M.

2017-11-01

A new, high-resolution record of benthic seawater Cd (Cdw) was generated from a Florida Straits sediment core at 546 m water depth. The record provides additional evidence for Cdw below modern values in this channel during the Younger Dryas and Heinrich Stadial 1—climatological periods associated with ice sheet melt. Lower Cdw values are interpreted as a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), reflecting a decreased northward transport of southern sourced higher-nutrient intermediate waters by the surface return flow of AMOC. Comparison of this new Cdw record with previously published neodymium isotope and δ18O records from the same core shows synchronous transitions, further illustrating the connection between Cdw levels and AMOC strength in the Florida Straits. An increase in Cdw near 16 ka bolsters existing evidence for a resumption of upper branch AMOC strength approximately midway through Heinrich Stadial 1.

Influence of glacial ice sheets on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through surface wind change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherriff-Tadano, Sam; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Oka, Akira; Chan, Wing-Le

2018-04-01

Coupled modeling studies have recently shown that the existence of the glacial ice sheets intensifies the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, most models show a strong AMOC in their simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is biased compared to reconstructions that indicate both a weaker and stronger AMOC during the LGM. Therefore, a detailed investigation of the mechanism behind this intensification of the AMOC is important for a better understanding of the glacial climate and the LGM AMOC. Here, various numerical simulations are conducted to focus on the effect of wind changes due to glacial ice sheets on the AMOC and the crucial region where the wind modifies the AMOC. First, from atmospheric general circulation model experiments, the effect of glacial ice sheets on the surface wind is evaluated. Second, from ocean general circulation model experiments, the influence of the wind stress change on the AMOC is evaluated by applying wind stress anomalies regionally or at different magnitudes as a boundary condition. These experiments demonstrate that glacial ice sheets intensify the AMOC through an increase in the wind stress at the North Atlantic mid-latitudes, which is induced by the North American ice sheet. This intensification of the AMOC is caused by the increased oceanic horizontal and vertical transport of salt, while the change in sea ice transport has an opposite, though minor, effect. Experiments further show that the Eurasian ice sheet intensifies the AMOC by directly affecting the deep-water formation in the Norwegian Sea.

Role of the North Atlantic Ocean in Low Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, G.; Yeager, S. G.; Kim, W. M.; Castruccio, F. S.

2017-12-01

The Atlantic Ocean is a unique basin with its extensive, North - South overturning circulation, referred to as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). AMOC is thought to represent the dynamical memory of the climate system, playing an important role in decadal and longer time scale climate variability as well as prediction of the earth's future climate on these time scales via its large heat and salt transports. This oceanic memory is communicated to the atmosphere primarily through the influence of persistent sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Indeed, many modeling studies suggest that ocean circulation, i.e., AMOC, is largely responsible for the creation of coherent SST variability in the North Atlantic, referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). AMV has been linked to many (multi)decadal climate variations in, e.g., Sahel and Brazilian rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, and Arctic sea-ice extent. In the absence of long, continuous observations, much of the evidence for the ocean's role in (multi)decadal variability comes from model simulations. Although models tend to agree on the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in creating the density anomalies that proceed the changes in ocean circulation, model fidelity in representing variability characteristics, mechanisms, and air-sea interactions remains a serious concern. In particular, there is increasing evidence that models significantly underestimate low frequency variability in the North Atlantic compared to available observations. Such model deficiencies can amplify the relative influence of external or stochastic atmospheric forcing in generating (multi)decadal variability, i.e., AMV, at the expense of ocean dynamics. Here, a succinct overview of the current understanding of the (North) Atlantic Ocean's role on the regional and global climate, including some outstanding questions, will be presented. In addition, a few examples of the climate impacts of the AMV via atmospheric teleconnections from a set of coupled simulations, also considering the relative roles of its tropical and extratropical components, will be highlighted.

Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions.

PubMed

Swingedouw, Didier; Ortega, Pablo; Mignot, Juliette; Guilyardi, Eric; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Butler, Paul G; Khodri, Myriam; Séférian, Roland

2015-03-30

While bidecadal climate variability has been evidenced in several North Atlantic paleoclimate records, its drivers remain poorly understood. Here we show that the subset of CMIP5 historical climate simulations that produce such bidecadal variability exhibits a robust synchronization, with a maximum in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) 15 years after the 1963 Agung eruption. The mechanisms at play involve salinity advection from the Arctic and explain the timing of Great Salinity Anomalies observed in the 1970s and the 1990s. Simulations, as well as Greenland and Iceland paleoclimate records, indicate that coherent bidecadal cycles were excited following five Agung-like volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Climate simulations and a conceptual model reveal that destructive interference caused by the Pinatubo 1991 eruption may have damped the observed decreasing trend of the AMOC in the 2000s. Our results imply a long-lasting climatic impact and predictability following the next Agung-like eruption.

The Oceanic Contribution to Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, R. C.; Armour, K.; Battisti, D. S.; Hartmann, D. L.

2017-12-01

Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) is typically associated with variability in ocean heat transport (OHT) by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, recent work has cast doubt on this connection by showing that slab-ocean climate models, in which OHT cannot vary, exhibit similar variability. Here, we apply low-frequency component analysis to isolate the variability of Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that occurs on decadal and longer time scales. In observations and in pre-industrial control simulations of comprehensive climate models, we find that AMV is confined to the extratropics, with the strongest temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. We show that warm subpolar temperatures are associated with a strengthened AMOC, increased poleward OHT, and local heat fluxes from the ocean into the atmosphere. In contrast, the traditional index of AMV based on the basin-averaged SST anomaly shows warm temperatures preceded by heat fluxes from the atmosphere into the ocean, consistent with the atmosphere driving this variability, and shows a weak relationship with AMOC. The autocorrelation time of the basin-averaged SST index is 1 year compared to an autocorrelation time of 5 years for the variability of subpolar temperatures. This shows that multi-decadal variability of Atlantic SSTs is sustained by OHT variability associated with AMOC, while atmosphere-driven SST variability, such as exists in slab-ocean models, contributes primarily on interannual time scales.

Tropical North Atlantic subsurface warming events as a fingerprint for AMOC variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Andrew O.; Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping

2015-11-01

The role of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as the driver of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) variability that characterized Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) has long been hypothesized. Although there is ample proxy evidence suggesting that DO events were robust features of glacial climate, there is little data supporting a link with AMOC. Recently, modeling studies and subsurface temperature reconstructions have suggested that subsurface warming across the tropical North Atlantic can be used to fingerprint a weakened AMOC during the deglacial because a reduction in the strength of the western boundary current allows warm salinity maximum water of the subtropical gyre to enter the deep tropics. To determine if AMOC variability played a role during the DO cycles of MIS 3, we present new, high-resolution Mg/Ca and δ18O records spanning 24-52 kyr from the near-surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber and the lower thermocline dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globorotalia truncatulinoides in Southern Caribbean core VM12-107 (11.33°N, 66.63°W, 1079 m depth). Our subsurface Mg/Ca record reveals abrupt increases in Mg/Ca ratios (the largest equal to a 4°C warming) during the interstadial-stadial transition of most DO events during this period. This change is consistent with reconstructions of subsurface warming events associated with cold events across the deglacial using the same core. Additionally, our data support the conclusion reached by a recently published study from the Florida Straits that AMOC did not undergo significant reductions during Heinrich events 2 and 3. This record presents some of the first high-resolution marine sediment derived evidence for variable AMOC during MIS 3.

Atlantic deep water circulation during the last interglacial.

PubMed

Luo, Yiming; Tjiputra, Jerry; Guo, Chuncheng; Zhang, Zhongshi; Lippold, Jörg

2018-03-13

Understanding how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) evolved during crucial past geological periods is important in order to decipher the interplay between ocean dynamics and global climate change. Previous research, based on geological proxies, has provided invaluable insights into past AMOC changes. However, the causes of the changes in water mass distributions in the Atlantic during different periods remain mostly elusive. Using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we show that the bulk of NCW in the deep South Atlantic Ocean below 4000 m migrated from the western basins at 125 ka to the eastern basins at 115 ka, though the AMOC strength is only slightly reduced. These changes are consistent with proxy records, and it is mainly due to more penetration of the AABW at depth at 115 ka, as a result of a larger density of AABW formed at 115 ka. Our results show that depth changes in regional deep water pathways can result in large local changes, while the overall AMOC structure hardly changes. Future research should thus be careful when interpreting single proxy records in terms of large-scale AMOC changes, and considering variability of water-mass distributions on sub-basin scale would give more comprehensive interpretations of sediment records.

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kilbourne, Hali; Klockmann, Marlene; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Ortega, Pablo; Romanou, Anastasia; Srokosz, Meric; Szuts, Zoltan; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Hall, Ian; Heimbach, Patrick;

Unstable AMOC during glacial intervals and millennial variability: The role of mean sea ice extent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sevellec, Florian; Fedorov, Alexey V.

A striking feature of paleoclimate records is the greater stability of the Holocene epoch relative to the preceding glacial interval, especially apparent in the North Atlantic region. In particular, strong irregular variability with an approximately 1500 yr period, known as the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, punctuates the last glaciation, but is absent during the interglacial. Prevailing theories, modeling and data suggest that these events, seen as abrupt warming episodes in Greenland ice cores and sea surface temperature records in the North Atlantic, are linked to reorganizations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study, using a new low-order oceanmore » model that reproduces a realistic power spectrum of millennial variability, we explore differences in the AMOC stability between glacial and interglacial intervals of the 100 kyr glacial cycle of the Late Pleistocene (1 kyr = 1000 yr). Previous modeling studies show that the edge of sea ice in the North Atlantic shifts southward during glacial intervals, moving the region of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation and the AMOC also southward. Finally, here we demonstrate that, by shifting the AMOC with respect to the mean atmospheric precipitation field, such a displacement makes the system unstable, which explains chaotic millennial variability during the glacials and the persistence of stable ocean conditions during the interglacials.« less

Unstable AMOC during glacial intervals and millennial variability: The role of mean sea ice extent

DOE PAGES

Sevellec, Florian; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-11-01

A striking feature of paleoclimate records is the greater stability of the Holocene epoch relative to the preceding glacial interval, especially apparent in the North Atlantic region. In particular, strong irregular variability with an approximately 1500 yr period, known as the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, punctuates the last glaciation, but is absent during the interglacial. Prevailing theories, modeling and data suggest that these events, seen as abrupt warming episodes in Greenland ice cores and sea surface temperature records in the North Atlantic, are linked to reorganizations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study, using a new low-order oceanmore » model that reproduces a realistic power spectrum of millennial variability, we explore differences in the AMOC stability between glacial and interglacial intervals of the 100 kyr glacial cycle of the Late Pleistocene (1 kyr = 1000 yr). Previous modeling studies show that the edge of sea ice in the North Atlantic shifts southward during glacial intervals, moving the region of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation and the AMOC also southward. Finally, here we demonstrate that, by shifting the AMOC with respect to the mean atmospheric precipitation field, such a displacement makes the system unstable, which explains chaotic millennial variability during the glacials and the persistence of stable ocean conditions during the interglacials.« less

Subpolar Atlantic cooling and North American east coast warming linked to AMOC slowdown

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, Stefan; Caesar, Levke; Feulner, Georg; Saba, Vincent

2017-04-01

Reconstructing the history of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is difficult due to the limited availability of data. One approach has been to use instrumental and proxy data for sea surface temperature (SST), taking multi-decadal and longer SST variations in the subpolar gyre region as indicator for AMOC changes [Rahmstorf et al., 2015]. Recent high-resolution global climate model results [Saba et al., 2016] as well as dynamical theory and conceptual modelling [Zhang and Vallis, 2007] suggest that an AMOC weakening will not only cool the subpolar Atlantic but simultaneously warm the Northwest Atlantic between Cape Hatteras and Nova Scotia, thus providing a characteristic SST pattern associated with AMOC variations. We analyse sea surface temperature (SST) observations from this region together with high-resolution climate model simulations to better understand the linkages of SST variations to AMOC variability and to provide further evidence for an ongoing AMOC slowdown. References Rahmstorf, S., J. E. Box, G. Feulner, M. E. Mann, A. Robinson, S. Rutherford, and E. J. Schaffernicht (2015), Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2554. Saba, V. S., et al. (2016), Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 121(1), 118-132, doi: 10.1002/2015JC011346. Zhang, R., and G. K. Vallis (2007), The Role of Bottom Vortex Stretching on the Path of the North Atlantic Western Boundary Current and on the Northern Recirculation Gyre, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(8), 2053-2080, doi: 10.1175/jpo3102.1.

North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reintges, Annika; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant variability mode for the winter climate of the North Atlantic sector. During a positive (negative) NAO phase, the sea level pressure (SLP) difference between the subtropical Azores high and the subpolar Icelandic low is anomalously strong (weak). This affects, for example, temperature, precipitation, wind, and surface heat flux over the North Atlantic, and over large parts of Europe. In observations we find enhanced sub-decadal variability of the NAO index that goes along with a dipolar sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. The corresponding SLP and SST patterns are reproduced in a control experiment of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Large-scale air-sea interaction is suggested to be essential for the North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in the KCM. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a key role, setting the timescale of the variability by providing a delayed negative feedback to the NAO. The interplay of the NAO and the AMOC on the sub-decadal timescale is further investigated in the CMIP5 model ensemble. For example, the average CMIP5 model AMOC pattern associated with sub-decadal variability is characterized by a deep-reaching dipolar structure, similar to the KCM's sub-decadal AMOC variability pattern. The results suggest that dynamical air-sea interactions are crucial to generate enhanced sub-decadal variability in the North Atlantic climate.

Dynamical Evaluation of Ocean Models Using the Gulf Stream as an Example

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-10

Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) wind stress climatology and the northward upper ocean flow (14 Sv) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ...30 35 55N 65N Fig. 21.14 Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) streamfunction from the same four simulations as Fig. 21.11. An AMOC...typically develops a northern or southern bias. A shallow bias in the southward abyssal flow of the Atlan- tic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC

Introduction to: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Carton, James A.

2011-01-01

A striking conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report is the crucial role that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play in anthropogenic climate change. However, these IPCC coupled climate simulations show a broad range of uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of AMOC transport change ranging from none to nearly complete collapse within the 21st century. The potential consequences of large changes in the characteristics of AMOC have motivated the creation in the United States of an interagency program and implementation plan to develop monitoring and prediction capabilities for the AMOC This program parallels the development of substantial monitoring efforts by European, South American and African countries -- notably the UK Rapid and Rapid-Watch programs. The papers contained in this volume are derived from presentations at the First U.S. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Meeting held 4 - 6 May, 2009 to review the US implementation plan and its coordination with other monitoring activities. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation consists of multiple components illustrated in an attached figure. Water enters the South Atlantic at upper and intermediate depths through both western and eastern routes (where eddy transport is especially important) and is transported northward across the equator, where it recirculates within the northern subtropical and subpolar gyres. The northern end is defined by the sinking regions of the Nordic Seas and the Labrador Sea where the waters that eventually form the upper and lower branches of North Atlantic Deep Water are conditioned. High surface salinities, the result of high net evaporation in the tropics and subtropics (including the Mediterranean Sea), and presence of regions of the Arctic Ocean that remain ice-free even in winter allow for the rapid cooling and thus densification of surface water. This dense surface water becomes the source of deep water formation in the sinking regions. In addition to transporting mass, the AMOC transports roughly half of the total amount of heat carried northward through the northern subtropics (down the temperature-gradient) by the ocean. In contrast in the Southern Hemisphere AMOC transports heat up-gradient from the cool Circumpolar Current to the warm tropics. Paleoevidence suggests that AMOC heat transport in the two hemispheres has varied over time in ways intimately tied to millennial changes in the Earth's climate. In one example, the abrupt Younger Dryas spell of cold weather over the North Atlantic, which began 13,000 years ago, has generally been linked to a millennial shutdown of the AMOC as a result of massive freshwater discharge from the North American continent. The current AMOC monitoring array consists of a series of instrumented transects located across key passages (see Cunningham et al., 2010 for a recent review). In the Arctic and sub-Arctic, transects cross Fram Strait, Denmark Strait and the Faroe Channel (connecting Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom), as well as the entrance to the Labrador Sea. Further south and extending outwards from the east coast of North America there are a series of monitoring arrays including arrays of the Canadian Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program, deployments of the Rapid Western Atlantic Variability Experiment (WAVE), Line W at 39 N, as well as the Rapid-MOC moored array. The latter spans the entire Atlantic basin along 26.5 N. At tropical latitudes we have the Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) array at 16 N, while in the Southern Hemisphere a corresponding basin-spanning transect is being established at the latitude of Cape of Good Hope, complemented by arrays at Drake Passage.

An electrical analogy relating the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

PubMed

Kurtz, Bruce E

2014-01-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the northward flow of surface water to subpolar latitudes where deepwater is formed, balanced by southward abyssal flow and upwelling in the vicinity of the Southern Ocean. It is generally accepted that AMOC flow oscillates with a period of 60-80 years, creating a regular variation in North Atlantic sea surface temperature known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). This article attempts to answer two questions: how is the AMOC driven and why does it oscillate? Using methods commonly employed by chemical engineers for analyzing processes involving flowing liquids, apparently not previously applied to trying to understand the AMOC, an equation is developed for AMOC flow as a function of the meridional density gradient or the corresponding temperature gradient. The equation is based on the similarity between the AMOC and an industrial thermosyphon loop cooler, which circulates a heat transfer liquid without using a mechanical pump. Extending this equation with an analogy between the flow of heat and electricity explains why the AMOC flow oscillates and what determines its period. Calculated values for AMOC flow and AMO oscillation period are in good agreement with measured values.

An Electrical Analogy Relating the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

PubMed Central

Kurtz, Bruce E.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the northward flow of surface water to subpolar latitudes where deepwater is formed, balanced by southward abyssal flow and upwelling in the vicinity of the Southern Ocean. It is generally accepted that AMOC flow oscillates with a period of 60–80 years, creating a regular variation in North Atlantic sea surface temperature known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). This article attempts to answer two questions: how is the AMOC driven and why does it oscillate? Using methods commonly employed by chemical engineers for analyzing processes involving flowing liquids, apparently not previously applied to trying to understand the AMOC, an equation is developed for AMOC flow as a function of the meridional density gradient or the corresponding temperature gradient. The equation is based on the similarity between the AMOC and an industrial thermosyphon loop cooler, which circulates a heat transfer liquid without using a mechanical pump. Extending this equation with an analogy between the flow of heat and electricity explains why the AMOC flow oscillates and what determines its period. Calculated values for AMOC flow and AMO oscillation period are in good agreement with measured values. PMID:24940739

North Atlantic deep water formation and AMOC in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heuzé, Céline; Wåhlin, Anna

2017-04-01

North Atlantic deep water formation processes and properties in climate models are indicative of their ability to simulate future ocean circulation, ventilation, carbon and heat uptake, and sea level rise. Historical time series of temperature, salinity, sea ice concentration and ocean transport in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas from 23 CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) models are compared with observations to reveal the causes and consequences of North Atlantic deep water formation in models. Deep convection occurs at the sea ice edge and is most realistic in models with accurate sea ice extent, mostly those using the CICE model. The trigger of deep convection varies among models; for one third it is intense surface cooling only, while the remaining two thirds also need upward mixing of subsurface warm salty water. The models with the most intense deep convection have the most accurate deep water properties, which are warmer and fresher than in the other models. They also have the strongest Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). For over half of the models, 40% of the variability of the AMOC is explained by the volumes of deep water produced in the subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas, with 3 and 4 years lag respectively. Understanding the dynamical drivers of the AMOC in models is key to realistically forecast a possible slow down and its consequences on the global circulation and marine life.

Combined influences of seasonal East Atlantic Pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation to excite Atlantic multidecadal variability in a climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Cassou, Christophe

2015-01-01

The physical processes underlying the internal component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) are investigated from a 1,000-yr pre-industrial control simulation of the CNRM-CM5 model. The low-frequency fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are shown to be the main precursor for the model AMV. The full life cycle of AMOC/AMV events relies on a complex time-evolving relationship with both North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) that must be considered from a seasonal perspective in order to isolate their action; the ocean is responsible for setting the multidecadal timescale of the fluctuations. AMOC rise leading to a warm phase of AMV is statistically preceded by wintertime NAO+ and EAP+ from ~Lag -40/-20 yrs. Associated wind stress anomalies induce an acceleration of the subpolar gyre (SPG) and enhanced northward transport of warm and saline subtropical water. Concurrent positive salinity anomalies occur in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas in link to local sea-ice decline; those are advected by the Eastern Greenland Current to the Labrador Sea participating to the progressive densification of the SPG and the intensification of ocean deep convection leading to AMOC strengthening. From ~Lag -10 yrs prior an AMOC maximum, opposite relationship is found with the NAO for both summer and winter seasons. Despite negative lags, NAO- at that time is consistent with the atmospheric response through teleconnection to the northward shift/intensification of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in link to the ongoing warming of tropical north Atlantic basin due to AMOC rise/AMV build-up. NAO- acts as a positive feedback for the full development of the model AMV through surface fluxes but, at the same time, prepares its termination through negative retroaction on AMOC. Relationship between EAP+ and AMOC is also present in summer from ~Lags -30/+10 yrs while winter EAP- is favored around the AMV peak. Based on additional atmospheric-forced experiments, both are interpreted as the local seasonal-dependent atmospheric response to warmer North Atlantic. Finally, advection of fresher water from the tropical basin created by local atmosphere/ocean anomalous circulation on one hand and from the Arctic on the other hand due to large-scale sea ice melting leads to decrease of density in the SPG and contributes terminating the model AMOC/AMV events. All together, the combined effects of NAO and EAP, their intertwined seasonal forcing/forced role upon/by the ocean and the primary role of salinity anomalies associated with oceanic dynamical changes acting as an integrator are responsible in CNRM-CM5 for an irregular and damped mode of variability for AMOC/AMV that takes about 35-40 (15-20) years to build up (dissipate).

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Influence on North Atlantic Sector Surface Air Temperature and its Predictability in the Kiel Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, M.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on the North Atlantic sector surface air temperature (SAT) in two multi-millennial control integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). One model version employs a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic, while the other does not. A clear influence of the AMOC on North Atlantic sector SAT only is simulated in the corrected model that depicts much reduced upper ocean salinity and temperature biases in comparison to the uncorrected model. Further, the model with much reduced biases depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector relative to the uncorrected model. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected model is due to a stronger and more variable AMOC and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SST and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N.

PubMed

Matei, Daniela; Baehr, Johanna; Jungclaus, Johann H; Haak, Helmuth; Müller, Wolfgang A; Marotzke, Jochem

2012-01-06

Attempts to predict changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have yielded little success to date. Here, we demonstrate predictability for monthly mean AMOC strength at 26.5°N for up to 4 years in advance. This AMOC predictive skill arises predominantly from the basin-wide upper-mid-ocean geostrophic transport, which in turn can be predicted because we have skill in predicting the upper-ocean zonal density difference. Ensemble forecasts initialized between January 2008 and January 2011 indicate a stable AMOC at 26.5°N until at least 2014, despite a brief wind-induced weakening in 2010. Because AMOC influences many aspects of climate, our results establish AMOC as an important potential carrier of climate predictability.

Coherent response of Antarctic Intermediate Water and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the last deglaciation: reconciling contrasting neodymium isotope reconstructions in tropical Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, S.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, J.; Rempfer, J.; Joos, F.; Oppo, D.

2017-12-01

Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) plays important roles in the global climate system and the global ocean nutrient and carbon cycles. However, it is unclear how AAIW responds to global climate changes. In particular, neodymium isotopic composition (ɛNd) reconstructions from different locations in tropical Atlantic, have led to a debate on the relationship between the northward penetration of AAIW into the tropical Atlantic and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability during the last deglaciation. We resolve this controversy by studying the transient oceanic evolution during the last deglaciation using a neodymium-enabled ocean model. Our results suggest a coherent response of AAIW and AMOC: when AMOC weakens, the northward penetration and transport of AAIW decreases while its depth and thickness increase. Our study highlights that as part of the return flow of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), the northward penetration of AAIW in Atlantic is determined predominately by AMOC intensity. Moreover, the inconsistency among different tropical Atlantic ɛNd reconstructions is reconciled by considering their corresponding core locations and depths, which were influenced by different water masses and ocean currents in the past. The very radiogenic water from the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, which was previously overlooked in interpretations of deglacial ɛNd variability, can be transported to shallow layers during active AMOC, and modulates ɛNd in the tropical Atlantic. Changes in the AAIW core depth must also be considered. Thus, interpretation of ɛNd reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic is more complicated than suggested in previous studies. ­­

On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

PubMed

Hofmann, Matthias; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2009-12-08

One of the most important large-scale ocean current systems for Earth's climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we review its stability properties and present new model simulations to study the AMOC's hysteresis response to freshwater perturbations. We employ seven different versions of an Ocean General Circulation Model by using a highly accurate tracer advection scheme, which minimizes the problem of numerical diffusion. We find that a characteristic freshwater hysteresis also exists in the predominantly wind-driven, low-diffusion limit of the AMOC. However, the shape of the hysteresis changes, indicating that a convective instability rather than the advective Stommel feedback plays a dominant role. We show that model errors in the mean climate can make the hysteresis disappear, and we investigate how model innovations over the past two decades, like new parameterizations and mixing schemes, affect the AMOC stability. Finally, we discuss evidence that current climate models systematically overestimate the stability of the AMOC.

Multi-proxy Reconstructions of Deglacial Variability of Antarctic Intermediate Water Circulation in the Western Tropical Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, K.; Oppo, D.; Curry, W. B.

2012-12-01

Reconstruction of changes in Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) circulation across the last deglaciation is critical in constraining the links between AAIW and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and understanding how AAIW influences oceanic heat transport and carbon budget across abrupt climate events. Here we systematically establish in situ calibrations for carbonate saturation state (B/Ca), nutrient (Cd/Ca and δ13C) and watermass proxies (ɛNd) in foraminifera using multicore tops and ambient seawater samples collected from the Demerara Rise, western tropical Atlantic. Through the multi-proxy reconstructions, deglacial variability of intermediate water circulation in the western tropical Atlantic can be further constrained. The reconstructed seawater Cd record from the Demerara Rise sediment core (KNR197-3-46CDH, at 947 m water depth) over the last 21 kyrs suggests reduced presence of AAIW during the cold intervals (LGM, H1 and YD) when AMOC was reduced. Down-core B/Ca record shows elevated intermediate water Δ[CO32-] during these cold intervals, further indicating a weaker influence of AAIW in the western tropical Atlantic. The δ13C record exhibits a pronounced deglacial minimum and a clear decoupling between δ13C and Cd/Ca after the AMOC completely recovered at around 8 kyr BP. This could be due to the carbonate ion effect on benthic Cd/Ca or the influence of organic matter remineralization on benthic δ13C. A new ɛNd record for the last deglaciation will be provided to evaluate the relative proportions of southern and northern waters at this intermediate site in the western tropical Atlantic.

The importance of deep, basinwide measurements in optimized Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation observing arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, G. D.; Menary, M. B.; Mecking, J. V.; Moat, B. I.; Johns, W. E.; Andrews, M. B.; Rayner, D.; Smeed, D. A.

2017-03-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key process in the global redistribution of heat. The AMOC is defined as the maximum of the overturning stream function, which typically occurs near 30°N in the North Atlantic. The RAPID mooring array has provided full-depth, basinwide, continuous estimates of this quantity since 2004. Motivated by both the need to deliver near real-time data and optimization of the array to reduce costs, we consider alternative configurations of the mooring array. Results suggest that the variability observed since 2004 could be reproduced by a single tall mooring on the western boundary and a mooring to 1500 m on the eastern boundary. We consider the potential future evolution of the AMOC in two generations of the Hadley Centre climate models and a suite of additional CMIP5 models. The modeling studies show that deep, basinwide measurements are essential to capture correctly the future decline of the AMOC. We conclude that, while a reduced array could be useful for estimates of the AMOC on subseasonal to decadal time scales as part of a near real-time data delivery system, extreme caution must be applied to avoid the potential misinterpretation or absence of a climate time scale AMOC decline that is a key motivation for the maintenance of these observations.