Improving the Taiwan Military’s Disaster Relief Response to Typhoons

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

circulation, are mostly westbound. When they reach the vicinity of Taiwan or the Philippines , which are always at the edge of the Pacific subtropical high...files from the POM base case model, one set for each design point. To automate the process of running all the GAMS files, a Windows batch file ( BAT ...is used to call on GAMS to solve each version of the model. The BAT file creates a new directory for each run to hold output, and one of the outputs

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2001 Version (Mars-GRAM 2001): Users Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, D. L.

2001-01-01

This document presents Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2001 Version (Mars-GRAM 2001) and its new features. As with the previous version (mars-2000), all parameterizations fro temperature, pressure, density, and winds versus height, latitude, longitude, time of day, and season (Ls) use input data tables from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) for the surface through 80-km altitude and the University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) for 80 to 70 km. Mars-GRAM 2001 is based on topography from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) and includes new MGCM data at the topographic surface. A new auxiliary program allows Mars-GRAM output to be used to compute shortwave (solar) and longwave (thermal) radiation at the surface and top of atmosphere. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAN source code and data files and for running the program. It also provides sample input and output and an example for incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

An elementary model of money circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokrovskii, Vladimir N.; Schinckus, Christophe

2016-12-01

This paper investigates money circulation for a system, consisting of a production system, the government, a central bank, commercial banks and many customers of the commercial banks. A set of equations for the system is written; the theory determines the main features of interaction between production and money circulation. Investigation of the equations in a steady-state situation reveals some relationship among output of the production system and monetary variables. The relation of quantity theory of money is confirmed, whereas a new concept of the efficiency of the system is introduced.

Black Carbon Concentration from Worldwide Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuster, Gregory L.; Dubovik, Oleg; Holben, Brent N.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.

2006-01-01

The carbon emissions inventories used to initialize transport models and general circulation models are highly parameterized, and created on the basis of multiple sparse datasets (such as fuel use inventories and emission factors). The resulting inventories are uncertain by at least a factor of 2, and this uncertainty is carried forward to the model output. [Bond et al., 1998, Bond et al., 2004, Cooke et al., 1999, Streets et al., 2001] Worldwide black carbon concentration measurements are needed to assess the efficacy of the carbon emissions inventory and transport model output on a continuous basis.

Seasonal overturning circulation in the Red Sea: 2. Winter circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Fengchao; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Pratt, Larry J.; Bower, Amy S.; Köhl, Armin; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Rivas, David

2014-04-01

The shallow winter overturning circulation in the Red Sea is studied using a 50 year high-resolution MITgcm (MIT general circulation model) simulation with realistic atmospheric forcing. The overturning circulation for a typical year, represented by 1980, and the climatological mean are analyzed using model output to delineate the three-dimensional structure and to investigate the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The horizontal model circulation in the winter of 1980 is dominated by energetic eddies. The climatological model mean results suggest that the surface inflow intensifies in a western boundary current in the southern Red Sea that switches to an eastern boundary current north of 24°N. The overturning is accomplished through a cyclonic recirculation and a cross-basin overturning circulation in the northern Red Sea, with major sinking occurring along a narrow band of width about 20 km along the eastern boundary and weaker upwelling along the western boundary. The northward pressure gradient force, strong vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing near the boundary are the essential dynamical components in the model's winter overturning circulation. The simulated water exchange is not hydraulically controlled in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb; instead, the exchange is limited by bottom and lateral boundary friction and, to a lesser extent, by interfacial friction due to the vertical viscosity at the interface between the inflow and the outflow.

On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, Archana; Acharya, Nachiketa; Singh, Ankita; Mohanty, U. C.; Panda, T. C.

2013-11-01

In this study the predictability of northeast monsoon (Oct-Nov-Dec) rainfall over peninsular India by eight general circulation model (GCM) outputs was analyzed. These GCM outputs (forecasts for the whole season issued in September) were compared with high-resolution observed gridded rainfall data obtained from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1982-2010. Rainfall, interannual variability (IAV), correlation coefficients, and index of agreement were examined for the outputs of eight GCMs and compared with observation. It was found that the models are able to reproduce rainfall and IAV to different extents. The predictive power of GCMs was also judged by determining the signal-to-noise ratio and the external error variance; it was noted that the predictive power of the models was usually very low. To examine dominant modes of interannual variability, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was also conducted. EOF analysis of the models revealed they were capable of representing the observed precipitation variability to some extent. The teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) and northeast monsoon rainfall was also investigated and results suggest that during OND the SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the central Pacific Ocean (over Nino3 region), and the north and south Atlantic Ocean enhances northeast monsoon rainfall. This observed phenomenon is only predicted by the CCM3v6 model.

Use of Advanced Meteorological Model Output for Coastal Ocean Modeling in Puget Sound

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Wang, Taiping

2011-06-01

It is a great challenge to specify meteorological forcing in estuarine and coastal circulation modeling using observed data because of the lack of complete datasets. As a result of this limitation, water temperature is often not simulated in estuarine and coastal modeling, with the assumption that density-induced currents are generally dominated by salinity gradients. However, in many situations, temperature gradients could be sufficiently large to influence the baroclinic motion. In this paper, we present an approach to simulate water temperature using outputs from advanced meteorological models. This modeling approach was applied to simulate annual variations of water temperatures of Pugetmore » Sound, a fjordal estuary in the Pacific Northwest of USA. Meteorological parameters from North American Region Re-analysis (NARR) model outputs were evaluated with comparisons to observed data at real-time meteorological stations. Model results demonstrated that NARR outputs can be used to drive coastal ocean models for realistic simulations of long-term water-temperature distributions in Puget Sound. Model results indicated that the net flux from NARR can be further improved with the additional information from real-time observations.« less

An integrated coronary circulation teaching model.

PubMed

van Oostrom, Johannes H; Kentgens, S; Beneken, J E W; Gravenstein, J S

2006-08-01

We present in this paper a model of the coronary circulation. This model is integrated with a model of the systemic circulation, and contains models for oxygen supply and demand. Three compartments are created: one for the right ventricle, one for the epicardial segment of the left ventricle and one for the endo-cardial segment of the left ventricle. The model was implemented in the Java programming language and contains a visual representation of the left and right ventricles which beat in real time. Color shading is used to represent the partial pressure of oxygen in the segments. A multitude of model parameters can be changed to simulate different scenarios. The output of the model was characterized under different conditions and the results verified by clinicians. Educational models of human physiology can be very useful for a more in depth understanding of complete physiologic systems. The models must however have enough complexity, interaction with other systems, and realism to show the concepts being taught.

Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Giang T.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sóbester, András; Challenor, Peter

2018-04-01

Climate model components involve both high-dimensional input and output fields. It is desirable to efficiently generate spatio-temporal outputs of these models for applications in integrated assessment modelling or to assess the statistical relationship between such sets of inputs and outputs, for example, uncertainty analysis. However, the need for efficiency often compromises the fidelity of output through the use of low complexity models. Here, we develop a technique which combines statistical emulation with a dimensionality reduction technique to emulate a wide range of outputs from an atmospheric general circulation model, PLASIM, as functions of the boundary forcing prescribed by the ocean component of a lower complexity climate model, GENIE-1. Although accurate and detailed spatial information on atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind speed is well beyond the capability of GENIE-1's energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere, this study demonstrates that the output of this model is useful in predicting PLASIM's spatio-temporal fields through multi-level emulation. Meaningful information from the fast model, GENIE-1 was extracted by utilising the correlation between variables of the same type in the two models and between variables of different types in PLASIM. We present here the construction and validation of several PLASIM variable emulators and discuss their potential use in developing a hybrid model with statistical components.

Modernization of the graphics post-processors of the Hamburg German Climate Computer Center Carbon Cycle Codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevens, E.J.; McNeilly, G.S.

The existing National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) code in the Hamburg Oceanic Carbon Cycle Circulation Model and the Hamburg Large-Scale Geostrophic Ocean General Circulation Model was modernized and reduced in size while still producing an equivalent end result. A reduction in the size of the existing code from more than 50,000 lines to approximately 7,500 lines in the new code has made the new code much easier to maintain. The existing code in Hamburg model uses legacy NCAR (including even emulated CALCOMP subrountines) graphics to display graphical output. The new code uses only current (version 3.1) NCAR subrountines.

Model-free adaptive control of advanced power plants

DOEpatents

Cheng, George Shu-Xing; Mulkey, Steven L.; Wang, Qiang

2015-08-18

A novel 3-Input-3-Output (3.times.3) Model-Free Adaptive (MFA) controller with a set of artificial neural networks as part of the controller is introduced. A 3.times.3 MFA control system using the inventive 3.times.3 MFA controller is described to control key process variables including Power, Steam Throttle Pressure, and Steam Temperature of boiler-turbine-generator (BTG) units in conventional and advanced power plants. Those advanced power plants may comprise Once-Through Supercritical (OTSC) Boilers, Circulating Fluidized-Bed (CFB) Boilers, and Once-Through Supercritical Circulating Fluidized-Bed (OTSC CFB) Boilers.

Mathematical modelling of the maternal cardiovascular system in the three stages of pregnancy.

PubMed

Corsini, Chiara; Cervi, Elena; Migliavacca, Francesco; Schievano, Silvia; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Pennati, Giancarlo

2017-09-01

In this study, a mathematical model of the female circulation during pregnancy is presented in order to investigate the hemodynamic response to the cardiovascular changes associated with each trimester of pregnancy. First, a preliminary lumped parameter model of the circulation of a non-pregnant female was developed, including the heart, the systemic circulation with a specific block for the uterine district and the pulmonary circulation. The model was first tested at rest; then heart rate and vascular resistances were individually varied to verify the correct response to parameter alterations characterising pregnancy. In order to simulate hemodynamics during pregnancy at each trimester, the main changes applied to the model consisted in reducing vascular resistances, and simultaneously increasing heart rate and ventricular wall volumes. Overall, reasonable agreement was found between model outputs and in vivo data, with the trends of the cardiac hemodynamic quantities suggesting correct response of the heart model throughout pregnancy. Results were reported for uterine hemodynamics, with flow tracings resembling typical Doppler velocity waveforms at each stage, including pulsatility indexes. Such a model may be used to explore the changes that happen during pregnancy in female with cardiovascular diseases. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

Treesearch

Azad Henareh Khalyani; William A. Gould; Eric Harmsen; Adam Terando; Maya Quinones; Jaime A. Collazo

2016-01-01

A Simple Model of the Pulmonary Circulation for Hemodynamic Study and Examination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaar, Kermit A., Jr.

1983-01-01

Describes a computer program allowing students to study such circulatory variables as venus return, cardiac output, mean circulatory filling pressure, resistance to venous return, and equilibrium point. Documentation for this Applesoft program (or diskette) is available from author. (JM)

Characterization of Magma-Driven Hydrothermal Systems at Oceanic Spreading Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farough, A.; Lowell, R. P.; Corrigan, R.

2012-12-01

Fluid circulation in high-temperature hydrothermal systems involves complex water-rock chemical reactions and phase separation. Numerical modeling of reactive transport in multi-component, multiphase systems is required to obtain a full understanding of the characteristics and evolution of hydrothermal vent systems. We use a single-pass parameterized model of high-temperature hydrothermal circulation at oceanic spreading centers constrained by observational parameters such as vent temperature, heat output, and vent field area, together with surface area and depth of the sub-axial magma chamber, to deduce fundamental hydrothermal parameters such as mass flow rate, bulk permeability, conductive boundary layer thickness at the base of the system, magma replenishment rate, and residence time in the discharge zone. All of these key subsurface characteristics are known for fewer than 10 sites out of 300 known hydrothermal systems. The principal limitations of this approach stem from the uncertainty in heat output and vent field area. For systems where data are available on partitioning of heat and chemical output between focused and diffuse flow, we determined the fraction of high-temperature vent fluid incorporated into diffuse flow using a two-limb single pass model. For EPR 9°50` N and ASHES, the diffuse flow temperatures calculated assuming conservative mixing are nearly equal to the observed temperatures indicating that approximately 80%-90% of the hydrothermal heat output occurs as high-temperature flow derived from magmatic heat even though most of the heat output appears as low-temperature diffuse discharge. For the Main Endeavour Field and Lucky Strike, diffuse flow fluids show significant conductive cooling and heating respectively. Finally, we calculate the transport of various geochemical constituents in focused and diffuse flow at the vent field scale and compare the results with estimates of geochemical transports from the Rainbow hydrothermal field where diffuse flow is absent.

Reducing the Uncertainty in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S. I.

2016-12-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the ocean might slow down in the future, which can lead to a host of climatic effects in North Atlantic and throughout the world. Despite improvements in climate models and availability of new observations, AMOC projections remain uncertain. Here we constrain CMIP5 multi-model ensemble output with observations of a recently developed AMOC index to provide improved Bayesian predictions of future AMOC. Specifically, we first calculate yearly AMOC index loosely based on Rahmstorf et al. (2015) for years 1880—2004 for both observations, and the CMIP5 models for which relevant output is available. We then assign a weight to each model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging method that accounts for differential model skill in terms of both mean state and variability. We include the temporal autocorrelation in climate model errors, and account for the uncertainty in the parameters of our statistical model. We use the weights to provide future weighted projections of AMOC, and compare them to un-weighted ones. Our projections use bootstrapping to account for uncertainty in internal AMOC variability. We also perform spectral and other statistical analyses to show that AMOC index variability, both in models and in observations, is consistent with red noise. Our results improve on and complement previous work by using a new ensemble of climate models, a different observational metric, and an improved Bayesian weighting method that accounts for differential model skill at reproducing internal variability. Reference: Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., & Schaffernicht, E. J. (2015). Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480. doi:10.1038/nclimate2554

Effects of nifedipine and captopril on vascular capacitance of ganglion-blocked anesthetized dogs.

PubMed

Ogilvie, R I; Zborowska-Sluis, D

1990-03-01

The hemodynamic effects of nifedipine and captopril at doses producing similar reductions in arterial pressure were studied in pentobarbital-anesthetized ventilated dogs after splenectomy during ganglion blockade with hexamethonium. Mean circulatory filling pressure (Pmcf) was determined during transient circulatory arrest induced by acetylcholine at baseline circulating blood volumes and after increases of 5 and 10 mL/kg. Central blood volumes (pulmonary artery to aortic root) were determined from transit times, and separately determined cardiac outputs (right atrium to pulmonary artery) were estimated by thermodilution. Nifedipine (n = 5) increased Pmcf at all circulating blood volumes and reduced total vascular capacitance without a change in total vascular compliance. Central blood volume, right atrial pressure, and cardiac output were increased with induced increases in circulating blood volume. In contrast, captopril (n = 5) did not alter total vascular capacitance, central blood volume, right atrial pressure, or cardiac output at baseline or with increased circulating volume. Thus, at doses producing similar reductions in arterial pressure, nifedipine but not captopril increased venous return and cardiac output in ganglion-blocked dogs.

Dry-bean production under climate change conditions in the north of Argentina: Risk assessment and economic implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feijoo, M.; Mestre, F.; Castagnaro, A.

This study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on Dry-bean production in Argentina, combining climate models, a crop productivity model and a yield response model estimation of climate variables on crop yields. The study was carried out in the North agricultural regions of Jujuy, Salta, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman which include the largest areas of Argentina where dry beans are grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): themore » Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). The results suggest that large climate change may have a negative impact on the Argentine agriculture sector, due to the high relevance of this product in the export sector. The difference negative effect depends on the varieties of dry bean and also the General Circulation Model scenarios considered for double levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.« less

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

2013-01-01

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

Fallon, Nevada FORGE Distinct Element Reservoir Modeling

DOE Data Explorer

Blankenship, Doug; Pettitt, Will; Riahi, Azadeh; Hazzard, Jim; Blanksma, Derrick

2018-03-12

Archive containing input/output data for distinct element reservoir modeling for Fallon FORGE. Models created using 3DEC, InSite, and in-house Python algorithms (ITASCA). List of archived files follows; please see 'Modeling Metadata.pdf' (included as a resource below) for additional file descriptions. Data sources include regional geochemical model, well positions and geometry, principal stress field, capability for hydraulic fractures, capability for hydro-shearing, reservoir geomechanical model-stimulation into multiple zones, modeled thermal behavior during circulation, and microseismicity.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

The economic effect of a physician assistant or nurse practitioner in rural America.

PubMed

Eilrich, Fred C

2016-10-01

Revenues generated by physician assistants (PAs) and NPs in clinics and hospitals create employment opportunities and wages, salaries, and benefits for staff, which in turn are circulated throughout the local economy. An input-output model was used to estimate the direct and secondary effects of a rural primary care PA or NP on the community and surrounding area. This type of model explains how input/output from one sector of industry can be the output/input for another sector. Given two example scenarios, a rural PA or NP can have an employment effect of 4.4 local jobs and labor income of $280,476 from the clinic. The total effect to a community with a hospital increases to 18.5 local jobs and $940,892 of labor income.

Mathematical Modeling of Physical and Cognitive Performance Decrement from Mechanical and Inhalation Insults

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

on specific short term problems. 1.1.1 Dynamic Physiological Modeling The oxygenation of the blood by the lung through respiration is a critical...tests as apnea , reduced arterial saturation, and may even be linked to long term CNS deficits. Inhalation of toxic gases can dramatically affect the...of TGAS model the respiration , circulation, and metabolic processes and include models of the ventilation and cardiac output control due to 3

Simulation model of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics in northern San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, J.E.; Cheng, R.T.

1981-01-01

A pseudo-two-dimensional model is developed to simulate population dynamics of one dominant phytoplankton species (Skeletonema costatum) in northern San Francisco Bay. The model is formulated around a conceptualization of this estuary as two distinct but coupled subsystems-a deep (10-20 m) central channel and lateral areas with shallow (<2 m) water and slow circulation. Algal growth rates are governed by solar irradiation, temperature and salinity, while population losses are assumed to result from grazing bycalanoid copepods. Consequences of estuarine gravitational circulation are approximated simply by reducing convective-dispersive transport in that section of the channel (null zone) where residual bottom currents are near zero, and lateral mixing is treated as a bulkexchange process between the channel and the shoals. Model output is consistent with the hypothesis that, because planktonic algae are light-limited, shallow areas are the sites of active population growth. Seasonal variation in the location of the null zone (a response to variable river discharge) is responsible for maintaining the spring bloom of neritic diatoms in the seaward reaches of the estuary (San Pablo Bay) and the summer bloom upstream (Suisun Bay). Model output suggests that these spring and summer blooms result from the same general process-establishment of populations over the shoals, where growth rates are rapid, coupled with reduced particulate transport due to estuarine gravitational circulation. It also suggests, however, that the relative importance of physical and biological processes to phytoplankton dynamics is different in San Pablo and Suisun Bays. Finally, the model has helped us determine those processes having sufficient importance to merit further refinement in the next generation of models, and it has given new direction to field studies. ?? 1981 Academic Press Inc. (London) Ltd.

Reducing uncertainty in the climatic interpretations of speleothem δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jex, C. N.; Phipps, S. J.; Baker, A.; Bradley, C.

2013-05-01

We explore two principal areas of uncertainty associated with paleoclimate reconstructions from speleothem δ18O (δ18Ospel): potential non-stationarity in relationships between local climate and larger-scale atmospheric circulation, and routing of water through the karst aquifer. Using a δ18Ospel record from Turkey, the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model and the KarstFOR karst hydrology model, we confirm the stationarity of relationships between cool season precipitation and regional circulation dynamics associated with the North Sea-Caspian pattern since 1 ka. Stalagmite δ18O is predicted for the last 500 years, using precipitation and temperature output from the CSIRO Mk3L model and synthetic δ18O of precipitation as inputs for the KarstFOR model. Interannual variability in the δ18Ospel record is captured by KarstFOR, but we cannot reproduce the isotopically lighter conditions of the sixteenth to seventeenth centuries. We argue that forward models of paleoclimate proxies (such as KarstFOR) embedded within isotope-enabled general circulation models are now required.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner; Mary Beth Adams; Douglas Burns; Ivan Fernandez; Myron J. Mitchell; James B. Shanley

2016-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and...

Elucidating Dynamical Processes Relevant to Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography (FLEAT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Encountering Abrupt Topography (FLEAT) Bo Qiu Dept of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Manoa 1000 Pope Rd. Honolulu, HI 96822 phone: (808) 956...c) to explore relevant dynamics by using both simplified models and OGCM output with realistic topography and surface boundary conditions...scale abyssal circulation, we propose to use the Hallberg Isopycnal Model (HIM). The HIM allows sloping isopycnals to interact with bottom topography

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change [includes Supporting Information

Treesearch

Seth J. Wenger; Daniel J. Isaak; Charlie Luce; Helen M. Neville; Kurt D. Fausch; Jason B. Dunham; Daniel C. Dauwalter; Michael K. Young; Marketa M. Elsner; Bruce E. Rieman; Alan F. Hamlet; Jack E. Williams

2011-01-01

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout...

Projected climate change for the coastal plain region of Georgia, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climatic patterns for the Coastal Plain region of Georgia, USA, centered on Tifton, Georgia (31 28 30N, 83 31 54W) were examined for long term patterns in precipitation and air temperature. Climate projections based upon output from seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and three future Green Hous...

Projected changes of the low-latitude north-western Pacific wind-driven circulation under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Jing; Chen, Zhaohui; Wu, Lixin

2017-05-01

Based on the outputs of 25 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, the projected changes of the wind-driven circulation in the low-latitude north-western Pacific are evaluated. Results demonstrate that there will be a decrease in the mean transport of the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Mindanao Current, and Kuroshio Current in the east of the Philippines, accompanied by a northward shift of the NEC bifurcation Latitude (NBL) off the Philippine coast with over 30% increase in its seasonal south-north migration amplitude. Numerical simulations using a 1.5-layer nonlinear reduced-gravity ocean model show that the projected changes of the upper ocean circulation are predominantly determined by the robust weakening of the north-easterly trade winds and the associated wind stress curl under the El Niño-like warming pattern. The changes in the wind forcing and intensified upper ocean stratification are found equally important in amplifying the seasonal migration of the NBL.

Thermospheric dynamics - A system theory approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Codrescu, M.; Forbes, J. M.; Roble, R. G.

1990-01-01

A system theory approach to thermospheric modeling is developed, based upon a linearization method which is capable of preserving nonlinear features of a dynamical system. The method is tested using a large, nonlinear, time-varying system, namely the thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. In the linearized version an equivalent system, defined for one of the desired TGCM output variables, is characterized by a set of response functions that is constructed from corresponding quasi-steady state and unit sample response functions. The linearized version of the system runs on a personal computer and produces an approximation of the desired TGCM output field height profile at a given geographic location.

Study of atmospheric dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcnider, Richard T.; Christy, John R.; Cox, Gregory N.

1993-01-01

In order to better understand the dynamics of the global atmosphere, a data set of precision temperature measurements was developed using the NASA built Microwave Sounding Unit. Modeling research was carried out to validate global model outputs using various satellite data. Idealized flows in a rotating annulus were studied and applied to the general circulation of the atmosphere. Dynamic stratospheric ozone fluctuations were investigated. An extensive bibliography and several reprints are appended.

Wind-driven coastal upwelling and westward circulation in the Yucatan shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Castillo, Eugenio; Gomez-Valdes, Jose; Sheinbaum, Julio; Rioja-Nieto, Rodolfo

2016-04-01

The wind-driven circulation and wind-induced coastal upwelling in a large shelf sea with a zonally oriented coast are examined. The Yucatan shelf is located to the north of the Yucatan peninsula in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This area is a tropical shallow body of water with a smooth sloping bottom and is one of the largest shelves in the world. This study describes the wind-driven circulation and wind-induced coastal upwelling in the Yucatan shelf, which is forced by easterly winds throughout the year. Data obtained from hydrographic surveys, acoustic current profilers and environmental satellites are used in the analysis. Hydrographic data was analyzed and geostrophic currents were calculated in each survey. In addition an analytical model was applied to reproduce the currents. The results of a general circulation model were used with an empirical orthogonal function analysis to study the variability of the currents. The study area is divided in two regions: from the 40 m to the 200 m isobaths (outer shelf) and from the coast to the 40 m isobath (inner shelf). At the outer shelf, observations revealed upwelling events throughout the year, and a westward current with velocities of approximately 0.2 m s-1 was calculated from the numerical model output and hydrographic data. In addition, the theory developed by Pedlosky (2007) for a stratified fluid along a sloping bottom adequately explains the current's primary characteristics. The momentum of the current comes from the wind, and the stratification is an important factor in its dynamics. At the inner shelf, observations and numerical model output show a wind-driven westward current with maximum velocities of 0.20 m s-1. The momentum balance in this region is between local acceleration and friction. A cold-water band is developed during the period of maximum upwelling.

Impact of Parameterized Lee Wave Drag on the Energy Budget of an Eddying Global Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-26

Teixeira, J., Peng, M., Hogan, T.F., Pauley, R., 2002. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS): Forcing for ocean models...Impact of parameterized lee wave drag on the energy budget of an eddying global ocean model David S. Trossman a,⇑, Brian K. Arbic a, Stephen T...input and output terms in the total mechanical energy budget of a hybrid coordinate high-resolution global ocean general circulation model forced by winds

Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Wuenschel, Mark J.; Kimball, Matthew E.

2012-01-01

We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species. PMID:23284974

Efficient quantum walk on a quantum processor

PubMed Central

Qiang, Xiaogang; Loke, Thomas; Montanaro, Ashley; Aungskunsiri, Kanin; Zhou, Xiaoqi; O'Brien, Jeremy L.; Wang, Jingbo B.; Matthews, Jonathan C. F.

2016-01-01

The random walk formalism is used across a wide range of applications, from modelling share prices to predicting population genetics. Likewise, quantum walks have shown much potential as a framework for developing new quantum algorithms. Here we present explicit efficient quantum circuits for implementing continuous-time quantum walks on the circulant class of graphs. These circuits allow us to sample from the output probability distributions of quantum walks on circulant graphs efficiently. We also show that solving the same sampling problem for arbitrary circulant quantum circuits is intractable for a classical computer, assuming conjectures from computational complexity theory. This is a new link between continuous-time quantum walks and computational complexity theory and it indicates a family of tasks that could ultimately demonstrate quantum supremacy over classical computers. As a proof of principle, we experimentally implement the proposed quantum circuit on an example circulant graph using a two-qubit photonics quantum processor. PMID:27146471

Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

2017-10-01

Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

Computational studies of the effects of active and passive circulation enhancement concepts on wind turbine performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tongchitpakdee, Chanin

With the advantage of modern high speed computers, there has been an increased interest in the use of first-principles based computational approaches for the aerodynamic modeling of horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT). Since these approaches are based on the laws of conservation (mass, momentum, and energy), they can capture much of the physics in great detail. The ability to accurately predict the airloads and power output can greatly aid the designers in tailoring the aerodynamic and aeroelastic features of the configuration. First-principles based analyses are also valuable for developing active means (e.g., circulation control), and passive means (e.g., Gurney flaps) of reducing unsteady blade loads, mitigating stall, and for efficient capture of wind energy leading to more electrical power generation. In this present study, the aerodynamic performance of a wind turbine rotor equipped with circulation enhancement technology (trailing edge blowing or Gurney flaps) is investigated using a three-dimensional unsteady viscous flow analysis. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Phase VI horizontal axis wind turbine is chosen as the baseline configuration. Prior to its use in exploring these concepts, the flow solver is validated with the experimental data for the baseline case under yawed flow conditions. Results presented include radial distribution of normal and tangential forces, shaft torque, root flap moment, surface pressure distributions at selected radial locations, and power output. Results show that good agreement has been for a range of wind speeds and yaw angles, where the flow is attached. At high wind speeds, however, where the flow is fully separated, it was found that the fundamental assumptions behind this present methodology breaks down for the baseline turbulence model (Spalart-Allmaras model), giving less accurate results. With the implementation of advanced turbulence model, Spalart-Allmaras Detached Eddy Simulation (SA-DES), the accuracy of the results at high wind speeds are improved. Results of circulation enhancement concepts show that, at low wind speed (attached flow) conditions, a Coanda jet at the trailing edge of the rotor blade is effective at increasing circulation resulting in an increase of lift and the chordwise thrust force. This leads to an increased amount of net power generation compared to the baseline configuration for moderate blowing coefficients. The effects of jet slot height and pulsed jet are also investigated in this study. A passive Gurney flap was found to increase the bound circulation and produce increased power in a manner similar to the Coanda jet. At high wind speed where the flow is separated, both the Coanda jet and Gurney flap become ineffective. Results of leading edge blowing indicate that a leading edge blowing jet is found to be beneficial in increasing power generation at high wind speeds. The effect of Gurney flap angle is also studied. Gurney flap angle has significant influence in power generation. Higher power output is obtained at higher flap angles.

Numerical Modeling of Hydrothermal Circulation at the Longqi-1 Field: Southwest Indian Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Z.; Lowell, R. P.; Tao, C.; Rupke, L.; Lewis, K. C.

2017-12-01

The Longqi-1(Dragon Flag) hydrothermal field is the first high-temperature hydrothermal system observed on the ultra-slow spreading Southwest Indian Ridge. Hydrothermal vents with temperatures near 380 °C are localized by detachment faulting within which extensional deformation likely increases permeability to provide preferred pathways for hydrothermal discharge. To better understand the Longqi-1 circulation system, we construct a 2-D numerical simulations in a NaCl- H2O fluid constrained by key observational data, such as vent temperature and heat output, crust structure derived from seismic data, and fault zone geometry deduced from seismicity. Heat output from AUV surveys is estimated to be » 300 ± 100 MW, and this value, in conjunction with vent temperature was used with the single-pass modeling approach to obtain an average permeability of 10-13 m-2 within the fault zone. In analogy with other fault-controlled hydrothermal systems such as Logatchev-1 we assume a lower background permeability of 10-14 m-2. The top boundary of the system is permeable and maintained at constant seafloor pressure, which is divided into two parts by the detachment fault. The pressure of the southern part is lower than the northern part to simulate the effect of the seafloor topography. The top boundary is upstream weighted to allow high temperature fluid to exit, while recharging fluid is maintained at 10°C. The bottom boundary is impermeable and is given a fixed temperature distribution at a depth of 7 km below the seafloor. The highest value Tmax is maintained over a distance given lateral distance and decreases linearly towards two ends to 300 °C. The salinity is set to 3.2 wt. % NaCl, and the simulations are assumed to be single phase. The results show that with a 7 km deep circulation system, Tmax = 550 oC gives a reasonable temperature and heat output of venting plume.We infer that the observed high salinity results from serpentinization reactions. Assuming all salinity in excess of seawater comes from uptake of H2O during serpentinization, we can estimate the rate of reaction and heat release of serpentinezation based on a simplified reaction equation, observed heat output and salinity data. The estimated rate of heat release during serpentinization is 20 MW. This is approximately 10% of the heat output of Dragon Flag vent field.

System and Method for Generating a Frequency Modulated Linear Laser Waveform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierrottet, Diego F. (Inventor); Petway, Larry B. (Inventor); Amzajerdian, Farzin (Inventor); Barnes, Bruce W. (Inventor); Lockard, George E. (Inventor); Hines, Glenn D. (Inventor)

2017-01-01

A system for generating a frequency modulated linear laser waveform includes a single frequency laser generator to produce a laser output signal. An electro-optical modulator modulates the frequency of the laser output signal to define a linear triangular waveform. An optical circulator passes the linear triangular waveform to a band-pass optical filter to filter out harmonic frequencies created in the waveform during modulation of the laser output signal, to define a pure filtered modulated waveform having a very narrow bandwidth. The optical circulator receives the pure filtered modulated laser waveform and transmits the modulated laser waveform to a target.

System and Method for Generating a Frequency Modulated Linear Laser Waveform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierrottet, Diego F. (Inventor); Petway, Larry B. (Inventor); Amzajerdian, Farzin (Inventor); Barnes, Bruce W. (Inventor); Lockard, George E. (Inventor); Hines, Glenn D. (Inventor)

2014-01-01

A system for generating a frequency modulated linear laser waveform includes a single frequency laser generator to produce a laser output signal. An electro-optical modulator modulates the frequency of the laser output signal to define a linear triangular waveform. An optical circulator passes the linear triangular waveform to a band-pass optical filter to filter out harmonic frequencies created in the waveform during modulation of the laser output signal, to define a pure filtered modulated waveform having a very narrow bandwidth. The optical circulator receives the pure filtered modulated laser waveform and transmits the modulated laser waveform to a target.

Air-sea interaction over the Indian Ocean due to variations in the Indonesian throughflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wajsowicz, R. C.

The effects of the Indonesian throughflow on the upper thermocline circulation and surface heat flux over the Indian Ocean are presented for a 3-D ocean model forced by two different monthly wind-stress climatologies, as they show interesting differences, which could have implications for long-term variability in the Indian and Australasian monsoons. The effects are determined by contrasting a control run with a run in which the throughflow is blocked by an artificial land-bridge across the exit channels into the Indian Ocean. In the model forced by ECMWF wind stresses, there is little impact on the annual mean surface heat flux in the region surrounding the throughflow exit straits, whereas in the model forced by SSM/I-based wind stresses, a modest throughflow of less than 5 ×106 m3s-1 over the upper 300 m induces an extra 10-50 Wm-2 output. In the SSM/I-forced model, there is insignificant penetration of the throughflow into the northern Indian Ocean. However, in the ECMWF-forced model, the throughflow induces a 5-10 Wm-2 reduction in heat input into the ocean, i.e., an effective output, over the Somali Current in the annual mean. These differences are attributed to differences in the strength and direction of the Ekman transport of the ambient flow, and the vertical structure of the transport and temperature anomalies associated with the throughflow. In both models, the throughflow induces a 5-30 Wm-2 increase in net output over a broad swathe of the southern Indian Ocean, and a reduction in heat output of 10-60 Wm-2 in a large L-shaped band around Tasmania. Effective increases in throughflow-induced net output reach up to 40 (60) Wm-2 over the Agulhas Current retroflection in the ECMWF (SSM/I)-forced model. Seasonal variations in the throughflow's effect on the net surface heat flux are attributed to seasonal variations in the ambient circulation of the Indian Ocean, specifically in coastal upwelling along the south Javan, west Australian, and Somalian coasts, and in the depth of convective overturning between 40°S to 50°S, and its sensing of the mean throughflow's thermal anomaly. The seasonal anomalies plus annual mean yield maximum values for the throughflow-induced net surface heat output in boreal summer. Values may exceed 40 Wm-2 in the southern Indian Ocean interior in both models, exceed 60 Wm-2 over the Agulhas retroflection and immediate vicinity of the exit channels in the SSM/I-forced model, and reach 30 Wm-2 over the Somali jet in the ECMWF-forced model.

Sensitivity of a three-mirror cavity to thermal and nonlinear lensing: Gaussian-beam analysis.

PubMed

Anctil, G; McCarthy, N; Piché, M

2000-12-20

We consider a compact three-mirror cavity consisting of a flat output coupler, a curved folding mirror, and an active medium with one facet cut at the Brewster angle and the other facet coated for unit reflectivity. We examine the sensitivity to thermal lensing and to self-focusing in the active medium of the Gaussian beam that is circulating in that cavity. We use a simple thin-lens model; the astigmatism of the beam that is circulating in the cavity and the nonlinear coupling between the field distributions along the two orthogonal axes are taken into account. We find configurations in which beam ellipticity is compensated for at either end of the cavity in the presence of thermal lensing. We have derived an analytical criterion that predicts the sensitivity of the beam size to nonlinear lensing. The ability of the cavity to favor self-mode locking is found to be sensitive to the strength of thermal lensing. In the absence of thermal lensing, cavities operated as telescopic systems (C = 0) or self-imaging systems (B = 0) are most appropriate for achieving self-mode locking, with nonlinear mode selection accomplished through saturation of the spatially varying laser gain. We identify conditions for which self-mode locking can be produced by variable-reflectivity output couplers with either maximum or minimum reflectivity at the center of the coupler. We use our model to estimate the nonlinear gain produced in laser cavities equipped with such output couplers. We identify a cavity configuration for which nonlinear lensing can simultaneously produce mode locking and correction of beam ellipticity at the output coupler.

Sensitivity of a Three-Mirror Cavity to Thermal and Nonlinear Lensing: Gaussian-Beam Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anctil, Geneviève; McCarthy, Nathalie; Piché, Michel

2000-12-01

We consider a compact three-mirror cavity consisting of a flat output coupler, a curved folding mirror, and an active medium with one facet cut at the Brewster angle and the other facet coated for unit reflectivity. We examine the sensitivity to thermal lensing and to self-focusing in the active medium of the Gaussian beam that is circulating in that cavity. We use a simple thin-lens model; the astigmatism of the beam that is circulating in the cavity and the nonlinear coupling between the field distributions along the two orthogonal axes are taken into account. We find configurations in which beam ellipticity is compensated for at either end of the cavity in the presence of thermal lensing. We have derived an analytical criterion that predicts the sensitivity of the beam size to nonlinear lensing. The ability of the cavity to favor self-mode locking is found to be sensitive to the strength of thermal lensing. In the absence of thermal lensing, cavities operated as telescopic systems ( C 0 ) or self-imaging systems ( B 0 ) are most appropriate for achieving self-mode locking, with nonlinear mode selection accomplished through saturation of the spatially varying laser gain. We identify conditions for which self-mode locking can be produced by variable-reflectivity output couplers with either maximum or minimum reflectivity at the center of the coupler. We use our model to estimate the nonlinear gain produced in laser cavities equipped with such output couplers. We identify a cavity configuration for which nonlinear lensing can simultaneously produce mode locking and correction of beam ellipticity at the output coupler.

Updated Results for the Wake Vortex Inverse Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robins, Robert E.; Lai, David Y.; Delisi, Donald P.; Mellman, George R.

2008-01-01

NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA) has developed an Inverse Model for inverting aircraft wake vortex data. The objective of the inverse modeling is to obtain estimates of the vortex circulation decay and crosswind vertical profiles, using time history measurements of the lateral and vertical position of aircraft vortices. The Inverse Model performs iterative forward model runs using estimates of vortex parameters, vertical crosswind profiles, and vortex circulation as a function of wake age. Iterations are performed until a user-defined criterion is satisfied. Outputs from an Inverse Model run are the best estimates of the time history of the vortex circulation derived from the observed data, the vertical crosswind profile, and several vortex parameters. The forward model, named SHRAPA, used in this inverse modeling is a modified version of the Shear-APA model, and it is described in Section 2 of this document. Details of the Inverse Model are presented in Section 3. The Inverse Model was applied to lidar-observed vortex data at three airports: FAA acquired data from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) and Denver International Airport (DEN), and NASA acquired data from Memphis International Airport (MEM). The results are compared with observed data. This Inverse Model validation is documented in Section 4. A summary is given in Section 5. A user's guide for the inverse wake vortex model is presented in a separate NorthWest Research Associates technical report (Lai and Delisi, 2007a).

Measurement of cardiac output from dynamic pulmonary circulation time CT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yee, Seonghwan, E-mail: Seonghwan.Yee@Beaumont.edu; Scalzetti, Ernest M.

Purpose: To introduce a method of estimating cardiac output from the dynamic pulmonary circulation time CT that is primarily used to determine the optimal time window of CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA). Methods: Dynamic pulmonary circulation time CT series, acquired for eight patients, were retrospectively analyzed. The dynamic CT series was acquired, prior to the main CTPA, in cine mode (1 frame/s) for a single slice at the level of the main pulmonary artery covering the cross sections of ascending aorta (AA) and descending aorta (DA) during the infusion of iodinated contrast. The time series of contrast changes obtained for DA,more » which is the downstream of AA, was assumed to be related to the time series for AA by the convolution with a delay function. The delay time constant in the delay function, representing the average time interval between the cross sections of AA and DA, was determined by least square error fitting between the convoluted AA time series and the DA time series. The cardiac output was then calculated by dividing the volume of the aortic arch between the cross sections of AA and DA (estimated from the single slice CT image) by the average time interval, and multiplying the result by a correction factor. Results: The mean cardiac output value for the six patients was 5.11 (l/min) (with a standard deviation of 1.57 l/min), which is in good agreement with the literature value; the data for the other two patients were too noisy for processing. Conclusions: The dynamic single-slice pulmonary circulation time CT series also can be used to estimate cardiac output.« less

The potential of air-sea interactions for improving summertime North Atlantic seasonal forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ossó, Albert; Shaffrey, Len; Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan

2017-04-01

Delivering skillful summertime seasonal forecasts of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude climate is a key unresolved issue for the climate science community. Current climate models have some skill in forecasting the wintertime NH mid-latitude circulation but very limited skill during summertime. To explore the potential predictability of the summertime climate we analyze lagged correlation patterns between the SSTs and summer atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic both in observations and climate model outputs. We find observational evidence in the ERA-Interim (1979-2015) reanalysis and the HadSLP2 and HadISST data of an SST pattern forced by late winter atmospheric circulation persisting from winter to early summer that excites an anticyclonic summer SLP anomaly west of the British Isles. We show that the atmospheric response is driven through the action of turbulent heat fluxes and changes on the background baroclinicity. The lagged atmospheric response to the SSTs could be exploited for summertime predictability over Western Europe. We find a statistical significant correlation of over 0.6 between April-May North Atlantic SSTs and the June-August North Atlantic SLP anomaly. The previous findings are further explored using 120 years of coupled ocean-atmosphere HadGEM3-GC2 model simulation. The climate model qualitatively reproduces the observed spatial relationship between the late winter and spring SSTs and summertime circulation, although the correlations are substantially weaker than observed.

Multivariate Bioclimatic Ecosystem Change Approaches

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-06

course the sandy soils of the Sandhills will not migrate. This observation suggests that a new nomenclature for ecosystems must be developed if...Coast Sandhills. At that time period, not only will the climate be similar, but the soil character will also be similar. Therefore about the year 2115...Disaggregation of global circulation model outputs decision and policy analysis. Working Paper No. 2. Cali, Colombia : International Centre for Tropical

The Role of Arctic Sea Ice in Last Millennium Climate Variability: Model-Proxy Comparisons Using Ensemble Members and Novel Model Experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gertler, C. G.; Monier, E.; Prinn, R. G.

2016-12-01

Variability in sea ice extent is a prominent feature of forced simulations of the last millennium and reconstructions of paleoclimate using proxy records. The rapid 20th century decline in sea ice extent is most likely due to greenhouse gas forcing, but the accuracy of future projections depend on the characterization of natural variability. Declining sea ice extent affects regional climate and society, but also plays a large role in Arctic amplification, with implications for mid-latitude circulation and even large-scale climate oscillations. To characterize the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on sea ice and the related changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, a combination of instrumental record, paleoclimate reconstructions, and general circulation models can be employed to recreate sea ice extents and the corresponding atmosphere-ocean states. Model output from the last millennium ensemble (LME) is compared to a proxy-based sea ice reconstruction and a global proxy network using a variety of statistical and data assimilation techniques. Further model runs using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) are performed with the same inputs as LME but forced with experimental sea ice extents, and results are contextualized within the larger ensemble by a variety of metrics.

Results of various studies made with the NCAR Thermospheric General Circulation Model (TGCM) (invited review)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, R. G.

1986-01-01

The NCAR thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM) has been used for a variety of thermospheric dynamic studies. It has also been used to compare model predictions with measurements made from various ground-based Fabry-Perot interferometer stations, incoherent scatter radar stations and the Dynamics Explorer satellites. The various input and output features of the model are described. These include the specification of solar EUV fluxes, and descriptions of empirical models to specify auroral particle precipitation, ion drag, and magnetospheric convection. Results are presented for solstice conditions giving the model perturbation temperature and circulation response to solar heating forcing alone and also with the inclusion of magnetospheric convections for two different dawn-dusk potential drops, 20 and 60 kV respectively. Results at two constant pressure levels Z =+1 at 300 km and Z= -4 at 120 km are presented for both the winter and summer polar cap regions. The circulation over the Northern Hemisphere polar cap in both the upper and lower thermosphere are presented along with a figure showing that the circulation is mainly a non-divergent irrotational flow responding to ion drag. The results of a study made on the Southern Hemisphere polar cap during October 1981 where Dynamics Explorer satellite measurements of winds, temperature and composition are compared to TGCM predictions are also presented. A diagnostic package that has been developed to analyze the balance of forces operating in the TGCM is presented next illustrating that in the F-region ion drag and pressure provide the main force balance and in the E-region ion drag, pressure and the coriolis forces provide the main balance. The TGCM prediction for the June 10, 1983 total solar eclipse are next presented showing a thermospheric disturbance following the path of totality. Finally, results are presented giving the global circulation, temperature and composition structure of the thermosphere for solar minimum conditions at equinox with 60 kV magnetospheric convection forcing at high latitudes.

Intraventricular filling under increasing left ventricular wall stiffness and heart rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaee, Milad; Lai, Hong Kuan; Schovanec, Joseph; Santhanakrishnan, Arvind; Nagueh, Sherif

2015-11-01

Heart failure with normal ejection fraction (HFNEF) is a clinical syndrome that is prevalent in over 50% of heart failure patients. HFNEF patients show increased left ventricle (LV) wall stiffness and clinical diagnosis is difficult using ejection fraction (EF) measurements. We hypothesized that filling vortex circulation strength would decrease with increasing LV stiffness irrespective of heart rate (HR). 2D PIV and hemodynamic measurements were acquired on LV physical models of varying wall stiffness under resting and exercise HRs. The LV models were comparatively tested in an in vitro flow circuit consisting of a two-element Windkessel model driven by a piston pump. The stiffer LV models were tested in comparison with the least stiff baseline model without changing pump amplitude, circuit compliance and resistance. Increasing stiffness at resting HR resulted in diminishing cardiac output without lowering EF below 50% as in HFNEF. Increasing HR to 110 bpm in addition to stiffness resulted in lowering EF to less than 50%. The circulation strength of the intraventricular filling vortex diminished with increasing stiffness and HR. The results suggest that filling vortex circulation strength could be potentially used as a surrogate measure of LV stiffness. This research was supported by the Oklahoma Center for Advancement of Science and Technology (HR14-022).

Quasi-Geostrophic Diagnosis of Mixed-Layer Dynamics Embedded in a Mesoscale Turbulent Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavanne, C. P.; Klein, P.

2016-02-01

A new quasi-geostrophic model has been developed to diagnose the three-dimensional circulation, including the vertical velocity, in the upper ocean from high-resolution observations of sea surface height and buoyancy. The formulation for the adiabatic component departs from the classical surface quasi-geostrophic framework considered before since it takes into account the stratification within the surface mixed-layer that is usually much weaker than that in the ocean interior. To achieve this, the model approximates the ocean with two constant-stratification layers : a finite-thickness surface layer (or the mixed-layer) and an infinitely-deep interior layer. It is shown that the leading-order adiabatic circulation is entirely determined if both the surface streamfunction and buoyancy anomalies are considered. The surface layer further includes a diabatic dynamical contribution. Parameterization of diabatic vertical velocities is based on their restoring impacts of the thermal-wind balance that is perturbed by turbulent vertical mixing of momentum and buoyancy. The model skill in reproducing the three-dimensional circulation in the upper ocean from surface data is checked against the output of a high-resolution primitive-equation numerical simulation. Correlation between simulated and diagnosed vertical velocities are significantly improved in the mixed-layer for the new model compared to the classical surface quasi-geostrophic model, reaching 0.9 near the surface.

Does Southern Ocean Surface Forcing Shape the Global Ocean Overturning Circulation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shantong; Eisenman, Ian; Stewart, Andrew L.

2018-03-01

Paleoclimate proxy data suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was shallower at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than its preindustrial (PI) depth. Previous studies have suggested that this shoaling necessarily accompanies Antarctic sea ice expansion at the LGM. Here the influence of Southern Ocean surface forcing on the AMOC depth is investigated using ocean-only simulations from a state-of-the-art climate model with surface forcing specified from the output of previous coupled PI and LGM simulations. In contrast to previous expectations, we find that applying LGM surface forcing in the Southern Ocean and PI surface forcing elsewhere causes the AMOC to shoal only about half as much as when LGM surface forcing is applied globally. We show that this occurs because diapycnal mixing renders the Southern Ocean overturning circulation more diabatic than previously assumed, which diminishes the influence of Southern Ocean surface buoyancy forcing on the depth of the AMOC.

Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

2012-12-01

General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Tank, A K; Lenderink, G; Ulden, A van; Oldenborgh, G J van; Katsman, C; Brink, H van den; Keller, F; Bessembinder, J; Burgers, G; Komen, G; Hazeleger, W; Drijfhout, S

2007-01-01

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

Historical droughts in Mediterranean regions during the last 500 years: a data/model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, S.; Alleaume, S.; Guiot, J.; Nicault, A.

2007-06-01

We present here a new method for comparing the output of General Circulation Models (GCMs) with proxy-based reconstructions, using time series of reconstructed and simulated climate parameters. The method uses k-means clustering to allow comparison between different periods that have similar spatial patterns, and a fuzzy logic-based distance measure in order to take reconstruction errors into account. The method has been used to test two coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs over the Mediterranean region for the last 500 years, using an index of drought stress, the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The results showed that, whilst no model exactly simulated the reconstructed changes, all simulations were an improvement over using the mean climate, and a good match was found after 1650 with a model run that took into account changes in volcanic forcing, solar irradiance, and greenhouse gases. A more detailed investigation of the output of this model showed the existence of a set of atmospheric circulation patterns linked to the patterns of drought stress: 1) a blocking pattern over northern Europe linked to dry conditions in the south prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during the 20th century; 2) a NAO-positive like pattern with increased westerlies during the LIA; 3) a NAO-negative like period shown in the model prior to the LIA, but that occurs most frequently in the data during the LIA. The results of the comparison show the improvement in simulated climate as various forcings are included and help to understand the atmospheric changes that are linked to the observed reconstructed climate changes.

A stochastic model for tropical cyclone tracks based on Reanalysis data and GCM output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, K.; Nakano, S.; Ueno, G.

2014-12-01

In the present study, we try to express probability distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories estimated on the basis of GCM output. The TC tracks are mainly controlled by the atmospheric circulation such as the trade winds and the Westerlies as well as are influenced to move northward by the Beta effect. The TC tracks, which calculated with trajectory analysis, would thus correspond to the movement of TCs due to the atmospheric circulation. Comparing the result of the trajectory analysis from reanalysis data with the Best Track (BT) of TC in the present climate, the structure of the trajectory seems to be similar to the BT. However, here is a significant problem for the calculation of a trajectory in the reanalysis wind field because there are many rotation elements including TCs in the reanalysis data. We assume that a TC would move along the steering current and the rotations would not have a great influence on the direction of moving. We are designing a state-space model based on the trajectory analysis and put an adjustment parameter for the moving vector. Here, a simple track generation model is developed. This model has a possibility to gain the probability distributions of calculated TC tracks by fitting to the BT using data assimilation. This work was conducted under the framework of the "Development of Basic Technology for Risk Information on Climate Change" supported by the SOUSEI Program of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; ...

2017-01-01

Our primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud–climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. But, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions Howmore » does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO 2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO 2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO 2 forcing and sea surface warming?CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations?What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models?Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds?How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?« less

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Helene; Douville, Herve; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.;

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro

Our primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud–climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. But, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions Howmore » does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO 2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO 2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO 2 forcing and sea surface warming?CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations?What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models?Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds?How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?« less

Na/beta-alumina/NaAlCl4, Cl2/C circulating cell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cherng, Jing-Yih; Bennion, Douglas N.

1987-01-01

A study was made of a high specific energy battery based on a sodium negative electrode and a chlorine positive electrode with molten AlCl3-NaCl electrolyte and a solid beta alumina separator. The basic performance of a Na beta-alumina NaAlCl4, Cl2/C circulating cell at 200 C was demonstrated. This cell can be started at 150 C. The use of melting sodium chloroaluminate electrolyte overcomes some of the material problems associated with the high working temperatures of present molten salt systems, such as Na/S and LiAl/FeS, and retains the advantages of high energy density and relatively efficient electrode processes. Preliminary investigations were conducted on a sodium-chlorine static cell, material compability, electrode design, wetting, and theoretical calculations to assure a better chance of success before assembling a Na/Cl2 circulating cell. Mathematical models provide a theoretical explanation for the performance of the NaCl2 battery. The results of mathematical models match the experimental results very well. According to the result of the mathematical modeling, an output at 180 mA/sq cm and 3.2 V can be obtained with optimized cell design.

Numerical modeling of general circulation, thermohaline structure, and residence time in Gorgan Bay, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranjbar, Mohammad Hassan; Hadjizadeh Zaker, Nasser

2018-01-01

Gorgan Bay is a semi-enclosed basin located in the southeast of the Caspian Sea, Iran. The bay is recognized as a resting place for migratory birds as well as a spawning habitat for native fish. However, apparently, no detailed research on its physical processes has previously been conducted. In this study, a 3D coupled hydrodynamic and solute transport model was used to investigate general circulation, thermohaline structure, and residence time in Gorgan Bay. Model outputs were validated against a set of field observations. Bottom friction and attenuation coefficient of light intensity were tuned in order to achieve optimum agreement with the observations. Results revealed that, due to the interaction between bathymetry and prevailing winds, a barotropic double-gyre circulation, dominating the general circulation, existed during all seasons in Gorgan Bay. Furthermore, temperature and salinity fluctuations in the bay were seasonal, due to the seasonal variability of atmospheric fluxes. Results also indicated that under the prevailing winds, the domain-averaged residence time in Gorgan Bay would be approximately 95 days. The rivers discharging into Gorgan Bay are considered as the main sources of nutrients in the bay. Since their mouths are located in the area with a residence time of over 100 days, Gorgan Bay could be at risk of eutrophication; it is necessary to adopt preventive measures against water quality degradation.

Projected shifts in copepod surface communities in the Mediterranean Sea under several climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedetti, F.; Guilhaumon, F.; Adloff, F.; Irisson, J. O.; Ayata, S. D.

2016-02-01

Although future increases in water temperature and future changes in regional circulation are expected to have great impacts on the pelagic food-web, estimates focusing on community-level shifts are still lacking for the planktonic compartment. By combining statistical niche models (or species distribution models) with projections from a regional circulation model, the impact of climate change on copepod epipelagic communities is assessed for the Mediterranean Sea. Habitat suitability maps are generated for 106 of the most abundant copepod species to analyze emerging patterns of diversity at the community level. Using variance analysis, we also quantified the uncertainties associated to our modeling strategy (niche model choice, CO2 emission scenario, boundary forcings of the circulation model). Comparing present and future projections, changes in species richness (alpha diversity) and in community composition (beta diversity, decomposed into turnover and nestedness component) are calculated. Average projections show that copepod communities will mainly experience turn-over processes, with little changes in species richness. Species gains are mainly located in the Gulf of Lions, the Northern Adriatic and the Northern Aegean seas. However, projections are highly variable, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We show that such variability is mainly driven by the choice of the niche model, through interactions with the CO2 emission scenario or the boundary forcing of the circulation model can be locally important. Finally, the possible impact of the estimated community changes on zooplanktonic functional and phylogenetic diversity is also assessed. We encourage the enlargement of this type of study to other components of the pelagic food-web, and argue that niche models' outputs should always be given along with a measure of uncertainty, and explained in light of a strong theoretical background.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Otte, Tanya L.

2013-04-01

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.

The Sensitivity of Arctic Ozone Loss to Polar Stratospheric Cloud Volume and Chlorine and Bromine Loading in a Chemistry and Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Strahan, S. E.; Polansky, B. C.

2006-01-01

The sensitivity of Arctic ozone loss to polar stratospheric cloud volume (V(sub PSC)) and chlorine and bromine loading is explored using chemistry and transport models (CTMs). A simulation using multi-decadal output from a general circulation model (GCM) in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) CTM complements one recycling a single year s GCM output in the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM. Winter polar ozone loss in the GSFC CTM depends on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and polar vortex characteristics (temperatures, descent, isolation, polar stratospheric cloud amount). Polar ozone loss in the GMI CTM depends only on changes in EESC as the dynamics repeat annually. The GSFC CTM simulation reproduces a linear relationship between ozone loss and Vpsc derived from observations for 1992 - 2003 which holds for EESC within approx.85% of its maximum (approx.1990 - 2020). The GMI simulation shows that ozone loss varies linearly with EESC for constant, high V(sub PSC).

[Cumulative effect of Coriolis acceleration on coronary hemodynamics].

PubMed

Lapaev, E V; Bednenko, V S

1985-01-01

Time-course variations in coronary circulation and cardiac output were measured in 29 healthy test subjects who performed tests with a continuous cumulation of Coriolis accelerations and in 12 healthy test subjects who were exposed to Coriolis accelerations combined with acute hypoxia. Adaptive changes in coronary circulation were seen. It is recommended to monitor coronary circulation during vestibulometric tests as part of medical expertise of the flying personnel.

Two alternative models concerning the perialveolar microcirculation in mammalian lungs.

PubMed

Günther, Bruno; Morgado, Enrique; Cociña, Manuela

2005-01-01

Despite the fact that the concept of sheet-flow in the pulmonary microcirculation of mammals was introduced more than three decades ago, the capillary circulatory model still prevails in the physiological literature. Since cardiac output is identical in the systemic and in pulmonary circulations, it is noteworthy that in the former, the resulting arterial pressure is five times higher than that of the latter, which means that the corresponding microcirculations must be radically different. The present study addresses this problem from both morphological and physiological perspectives.

Simulations of coupled, Antarctic ice-ocean evolution using POP2x and BISICLES (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Martin, D. F.; Maltrud, M. E.; Hoffman, M. J.

2013-12-01

We present initial results from Antarctic, ice-ocean coupled simulations using large-scale ocean circulation and land ice evolution models. The ocean model, POP2x is a modified version of POP, a fully eddying, global-scale ocean model (Smith and Gent, 2002). POP2x allows for circulation beneath ice shelf cavities using the method of partial top cells (Losch, 2008). Boundary layer physics, which control fresh water and salt exchange at the ice-ocean interface, are implemented following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (1999), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008; Kimura et al., 2013) and with results from other idealized ice-ocean coupling test cases (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2012). The land ice model, BISICLES (Cornford et al., 2012), includes a 1st-order accurate momentum balance (L1L2) and uses block structured, adaptive-mesh refinement to more accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. For idealized test cases focused on marine-ice sheet dynamics, BISICLES output compares very favorably relative to simulations based on the full, nonlinear Stokes momentum balance (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013). Here, we present large-scale (southern ocean) simulations using POP2x with fixed ice shelf geometries, which are used to obtain and validate modeled submarine melt rates against observations. These melt rates are, in turn, used to force evolution of the BISICLES model. An offline-coupling scheme, which we compare with the ice-ocean coupling work of Goldberg et al. (2012), is then used to sequentially update the sub-shelf cavity geometry seen by POP2x.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Trout Lake Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Trout River Basin at Trout Lake in northern Wisconsin.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Clear Creek Basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Clear Creek Basin, near Coralville, Iowa.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Feather River Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Feather River Basin, California.

Watershed scale response to climate change--South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Cathance Stream Basin, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Cathance Stream Basin, Maine.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Pomperaug River Watershed, Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Pomperaug River Basin at Southbury, Connecticut.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Starkweather Coulee Basin, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Starkweather Coulee Basin near Webster, North Dakota.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Sagehen Creek Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Regan, R. Steven

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Sagehen Creek Basin near Truckee, California.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Sprague River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Sprague River Basin near Chiloquin, Oregon.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Black Earth Creek Basin, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Westenbroek, Steven M.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Black Earth Creek Basin, Wisconsin.

Watershed scale response to climate change--East River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William A.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the East River Basin, Colorado.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Naches River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Naches River Basin below Tieton River in Washington.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Flint River Basin, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Flint River Basin at Montezuma, Georgia.

GEOS-5 Chemistry Transport Model User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kouatchou, J.; Molod, A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Auer, B.; Putman, W.; Clune, T.

2015-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) General Circulation Model (GCM) makes use of the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) to enable model configurations with many functions. One of the options of the GEOS-5 GCM is the GEOS-5 Chemistry Transport Model (GEOS-5 CTM), which is an offline simulation of chemistry and constituent transport driven by a specified meteorology and other model output fields. This document describes the basic components of the GEOS-5 CTM, and is a user's guide on to how to obtain and run simulations on the NCCS Discover platform. In addition, we provide information on how to change the model configuration input files to meet users' needs.

An application of hybrid downscaling model to forecast summer precipitation at stations in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ying; Fan, Ke

2014-06-01

A pattern prediction hybrid downscaling method was applied to predict summer (June-July-August) precipitation at China 160 stations. The predicted precipitation from the downscaling scheme is available one month before. Four predictors were chosen to establish the hybrid downscaling scheme. The 500-hPa geopotential height (GH5) and 850-hPa specific humidity (q85) were from the skillful predicted output of three DEMETER (Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction) general circulation models (GCMs). The 700-hPa geopotential height (GH7) and sea level pressure (SLP) were from reanalysis datasets. The hybrid downscaling scheme (HD-4P) has better prediction skill than a conventional statistical downscaling model (SD-2P) which contains two predictors derived from the output of GCMs, although two downscaling schemes were performed to improve the seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in comparison with the original output of the DEMETER GCMs. In particular, HD-4P downscaling predictions showed lower root mean square errors than those based on the SD-2P model. Furthermore, the HD-4P downscaling model reproduced the China summer precipitation anomaly centers more accurately than the scenario of the SD-2P model in 1998. A hybrid downscaling prediction should be effective to improve the prediction skill of summer rainfall at stations in China.

Estimates of runoff using water-balance and atmospheric general circulation models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolock, D.M.; McCabe, G.J.

1999-01-01

The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.

Applications of Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) Supporting Mission Site Selection for Mars Science Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary L.; Justus, Carl G.

2008-01-01

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) is an engineering level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. An overview is presented of Mars-GRAM 2005 and its new features. One new feature of Mars-GRAM 2005 is the 'auxiliary profile' option. In this option, an input file of temperature and density versus altitude is used to replace mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. An auxiliary profile can be generated from any source of data or alternate model output. Auxiliary profiles for this study were produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5)model) and a global Thermal Emission Spectrometer(TES) database. The global TES database has been specifically generated for purposes of making Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components,averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude-longitude bins and 15 degree L(s) bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from the mesoscale model output and TES observed data for candidate Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) landing sites. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

The Description and Validation of a Computationally-Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) Module for 3D Model Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshorbany, Yasin F.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Strode, Sarah A.; Wang, James S.; Kouatchou, Jules

2015-01-01

We present the Efficient CH4-CO-OH Module (ECCOH) that allows for the simulation of the methane, carbon monoxide and hydroxyl radical (CH4-CO-OH cycle, within a chemistry climate model, carbon cycle model, or earth system model. The computational efficiency of the module allows many multi-decadal, sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH cycle, which primarily determines the global tropospheric oxidizing capacity. This capability is important for capturing the nonlinear feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system and understanding the perturbations to relatively long-lived methane and the concomitant impacts on climate. We implemented the ECCOH module into the NASA GEOS-5 Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (AGCM), performed multiple sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH system over two decades, and evaluated the model output with surface and satellite datasets of methane and CO. The favorable comparison of output from the ECCOH module (as configured in the GEOS-5 AGCM) with observations demonstrates the fidelity of the module for use in scientific research.

The Description and Validation of a Computationally-Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOHv1.01) Chemistry Module for 3D Model Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshorbany, Yasin F.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Strode, Sarah A.; Wang, James S.; Kouatchou, Jules

2016-01-01

We present the Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) chemistry module that allows for the simulation of the methane, carbon monoxide, and hydroxyl radical (CH4-CO- OH) system, within a chemistry climate model, carbon cycle model, or Earth system model. The computational efficiency of the module allows many multi-decadal sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH system, which primarily determines the global atmospheric oxidizing capacity. This capability is important for capturing the nonlinear feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system and understanding the perturbations to methane, CO, and OH, and the concomitant impacts on climate. We implemented the ECCOH chemistry module in the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM), performed multiple sensitivity simulations of the CH4-CO-OH system over 2 decades, and evaluated the model output with surface and satellite data sets of methane and CO. The favorable comparison of output from the ECCOH chemistry module (as configured in the GEOS- 5 AGCM) with observations demonstrates the fidelity of the module for use in scientific research.

Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ananichheva, Maria; Arendt, Anthony; Hagen, Jon-Ove; Hock, Regine; Josberger, Edward G.; Moore, R. Dan; Pfeffer, William Tad; Wolken, Gabriel J.

2011-01-01

Projections of future rates of mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic focus primarily on projections of changes in the surface mass balance. Current models are not yet capable of making realistic forecasts of changes in losses by calving. Surface mass balance models are forced with downscaled output from climate models driven by forcing scenarios that make assumptions about the future rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, mass loss projections vary considerably, depending on the forcing scenario used and the climate model from which climate projections are derived. A new study in which a surface mass balance model is driven by output from ten general circulation models (GCMs) forced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B emissions scenario yields estimates of total mass loss of between 51 and 136 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) (or 13% to 36% of current glacier volume) by 2100. This implies that there will still be substantial glacier mass in the Arctic in 2100 and that Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps will continue to influence global sea-level change well into the 22nd century.

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2005-01-01

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

Modeling Inflation Using a Non-Equilibrium Equation of Exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlain, Robert G.

2013-01-01

Inflation is a change in the prices of goods that takes place without changes in the actual values of those goods. The Equation of Exchange, formulated clearly in a seminal paper by Irving Fisher in 1911, establishes an equilibrium relationship between the price index P (also known as "inflation"), the economy's aggregate output Q (also known as "the real gross domestic product"), the amount of money available for spending M (also known as "the money supply"), and the rate at which money is reused V (also known as "the velocity of circulation of money"). This paper offers first a qualitative discussion of what can cause these factors to change and how those causes might be controlled, then develops a quantitative model of inflation based on a non-equilibrium version of the Equation of Exchange. Causal relationships are different from equations in that the effects of changes in the causal variables take time to play out-often significant amounts of time. In the model described here, wages track prices, but only after a distributed lag. Prices change whenever the money supply, aggregate output, or the velocity of circulation of money change, but only after a distributed lag. Similarly, the money supply depends on the supplies of domestic and foreign money, which depend on the monetary base and a variety of foreign transactions, respectively. The spreading of delays mitigates the shocks of sudden changes to important inputs, but the most important aspect of this model is that delays, which often have dramatic consequences in dynamic systems, are explicitly incorporated.macroeconomics, inflation, equation of exchange, non-equilibrium, Athena Project

A combined observational and modeling approach to the study of coastal areas: the case of the Gulf of Trieste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosoli, Simone; Licer, Matjaz; Malacic, Vlado; Papapostolou, Alexandros; Axaopoulos, Panagiotis

2015-04-01

During the last decade high-frequency (HF) radar systems have been installed operationally throughout the world, and extensive validation efforts have proven their reliability in mapping near-surface currents at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Nowadays, they are considered as a reliable benchmark for the validation of numerical circulation models and of tidal current models. Similarly to HFR data, ocean circulation models are now considered reliable tools that are routinely put into operational use to provide a wide range of products of public interest. To insure the scientific integrity, assessing the skill of the model products is a crucial point, especially in coastal areas where tidal processes (such as currents or mixing) are important, bathymetry and changes in the vertical and horizontal structure of temperature, salinity, and density due either to seasonal variations or impulsive-type freshwater input are also critical. Here we present the case of the Gulf of Trieste, northern Adriatic Sea, a complex coastal region in which circulation is controlled by a number of complex processes that include tides, wind, waves and variations in river discharge with significant temporal variability. By comparing radar observations, data from moorings and coastal tide gauges, with the output of different circulation models (NAPOM -an operational version of Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for the Northern Adriatic; and OTPS, a barotropic tidal model for the Northern Adriatic), we show that: HFR observations and model simulations are complementary tools in complex coastal regions, in the sense that they reciprocally help accounting for their intrinsic limitations (i.e., lack of vertical resolution in HFR data; areas with significant topographic gradients for models); tidal models accurately describe tidal features in the region; and that existing intrinsic data-model discrepancies can be interpreted and used to propose correction to the models.

Modeling circulation patterns induced by spatial cross-shore wind variability in a small-size coastal embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerralbo, Pablo; Espino, Manuel; Grifoll, Manel

2016-08-01

This contribution shows the importance of the cross-shore spatial wind variability in the water circulation in a small-sized micro-tidal bay. The hydrodynamic wind response at Alfacs Bay (Ebro River delta, NW Mediterranean Sea) is investigated with a numerical model (ROMS) supported by in situ observations. The wind variability observed in meteorological measurements is characterized with meteorological model (WRF) outputs. From the hydrodynamic simulations of the bay, the water circulation response is affected by the cross-shore wind variability, leading to water current structures not observed in the homogeneous-wind case. If the wind heterogeneity response is considered, the water exchange in the longitudinal direction increases significantly, reducing the water exchange time by around 20%. Wind resolutions half the size of the bay (in our case around 9 km) inhibit cross-shore wind variability, which significantly affects the resultant circulation pattern. The characteristic response is also investigated using idealized test cases. These results show how the wind curl contributes to the hydrodynamic response in shallow areas and promotes the exchange between the bay and the open sea. Negative wind curl is related to the formation of an anti-cyclonic gyre at the bay's mouth. Our results highlight the importance of considering appropriate wind resolution even in small-scale domains (such as bays or harbors) to characterize the hydrodynamics, with relevant implications in the water exchange time and the consequent water quality and ecological parameters.

Modification of the Stratification and Velocity Profile Within the Straits and Seas of the Indonesian Archipelago

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-10

Arnold L. Gordon Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory 61 Route 9 W Palisades , NY 10964-8000 tele: 845 365-8325 fax:845 365-8157 agordon...probably extending through the thermocline. The model output frequently shows a zonally elongated circulation cell encompassing Seram Island. From March to... cell around Seram island. The Seram Sea is a ’traffic cop’ directing the Pacific inflow into multiple possible exit passages. The energetic

Power generation costs and ultimate thermal hydraulic power limits in hypothetical advanced designs with natural circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duffey, R.B.; Rohatgi, U.S.

Maximum power limits for hypothetical designs of natural circulation plants can be described analytically. The thermal hydraulic design parameters are those which limit the flow, being the elevations, flow areas, and loss coefficients. WE have found some simple ``design`` equations for natural circulation flow to power ratio, and for the stability limit. The analysis of historical and available data for maximum capacity factor estimation shows 80% to be reasonable and achievable. The least cost is obtained by optimizing both hypothetical plant performance for a given output,a nd the plant layout and design. There is also scope to increase output andmore » reduce cost by considering design variations of primary and secondary pressure, and by optimizing component elevations and loss coefficients. The design limits for each are set by stability and maximum flow considerations, which deserve close and careful evaluation.« less

Noninvasive measurement of pulsatile intracranial pressure using ultrasound

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ueno, T.; Ballard, R. E.; Shuer, L. M.; Cantrell, J. H.; Yost, W. T.; Hargens, A. R.

1998-01-01

The present study was designed to validate our noninvasive ultrasonic technique (pulse phase locked loop: PPLL) for measuring intracranial pressure (ICP) waveforms. The technique is based upon detecting skull movements which are known to occur in conjunction with altered intracranial pressure. In bench model studies, PPLL output was highly correlated with changes in the distance between a transducer and a reflecting target (R2 = 0.977). In cadaver studies, transcranial distance was measured while pulsations of ICP (amplitudes of zero to 10 mmHg) were generated by rhythmic injections of saline. Frequency analyses (fast Fourier transformation) clearly demonstrate the correspondence between the PPLL output and ICP pulse cycles. Although theoretically there is a slight possibility that changes in the PPLL output are caused by changes in the ultrasonic velocity of brain tissue, the decreased amplitudes of the PPLL output as the external compression of the head was increased indicates that the PPLL output represents substantial skull movement associated with altered ICP. In conclusion, the ultrasound device has sufficient sensitivity to detect transcranial pulsations which occur in association with the cardiac cycle. Our technique makes it possible to analyze ICP waveforms noninvasively and will be helpful for understanding intracranial compliance and cerebrovascular circulation.

A three-dimensional multivariate representation of atmospheric variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žagar, Nedjeljka; Jelić, Damjan; Blaauw, Marten; Jesenko, Blaž

2016-04-01

A recently developed MODES software has been applied to the ECMWF analyses and forecasts and to several reanalysis datasets to describe the global variability of the balanced and inertio-gravity (IG) circulation across many scales by considering both mass and wind field and the whole model depth. In particular, the IG spectrum, which has only recently become observable in global datasets, can be studied simultaneously in the mass field and wind field and considering the whole model depth. MODES is open-access software that performs the normal-mode function decomposition of the 3D global datasets. Its application to the ERA Interim dataset reveals several aspects of the large-scale circulation after it has been partitioned into the linearly balanced and IG components. The global energy distribution is dominated by the balanced energy while the IG modes contribute around 8% of the total wave energy. However, on subsynoptic scales IG energy dominates and it is associated with the main features of tropical variability on all scales. The presented energy distribution and features of the zonally-averaged and equatorial circulation provide a reference for the intercomparison of several reanalysis datasets and for the validation of climate models. Features of the global IG circulation are compared in ERA Interim, MERRA and JRA reanalysis datasets and in several CMIP5 models. Since October 2014 the operational medium-range forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been analyzed by MODES daily and an online archive of all the outputs is available at http://meteo.fmf.uni-lj.si/MODES. New outputs are made available daily based on the 00 UTC run and subsequent 12-hour forecasts up to 240-hour forecast. In addition to the energy spectra and horizontal circulation on selected levels for the balanced and IG components, the equatorial Kelvin waves are presented in time and space as the most energetic tropical IG modes propagating vertically and along the equator from its main generation regions in the upper troposphere over the Indian and Pacific region. The validation of the 10-day ECMWF forecasts with analyses in the modal space suggests a lack of variability in the tropics in the medium range. Reference: Žagar, N. et al., 2015: Normal-mode function representation of global 3-D data sets: open-access software for the atmospheric research community. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1169-1195, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1169-2015 Žagar, N., R. Buizza, and J. Tribbia, 2015: A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 4423-4444 The MODES software is available from http://meteo.fmf.uni-lj.si/MODES.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Yampa River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Battaglin, William A.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Yampa River Basin at Steamboat Springs, Colorado.

The interdependence of Ca2+ activation, sarcomere length, and power output in the heart.

PubMed

McDonald, Kerry S

2011-07-01

Myocardium generates power to perform external work on the circulation; yet, many questions regarding intermolecular mechanisms regulating power output remain unresolved. Power output equals force × shortening velocity, and some interesting new observations regarding control of these two factors have arisen. While it is well established that sarcomere length tightly controls myocyte force, sarcomere length-tension relationships also appear to be markedly modulated by PKA-mediated phosphorylation of myofibrillar proteins. Concerning loaded shortening, historical models predict independent cross-bridge mechanics; however, it seems that the mechanical state of one population of cross-bridges affects the activity of other cross-bridges by, for example, recruitment of cross-bridges from the non-cycling pool to the cycling force-generating pool during submaximal Ca(2+) activation. This is supported by the findings that Ca(2+) activation levels, myofilament phosphorylation, and sarcomere length are all modulators of loaded shortening and power output independent of their effects on force. This fine tuning of power output probably helps optimize myocardial energetics and to match ventricular supply with peripheral demand; yet, the discernment of the chemo-mechanical signals that modulate loaded shortening needs further clarification since power output may be a key convergent point and feedback regulator of cytoskeleton and cellular signals that control myocyte growth and survival.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Hélène; Douville, Hervé; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.; Klein, Stephen A.; Marchand, Roger; Medeiros, Brian; Pier Siebesma, A.; Skinner, Christopher B.; Stevens, Bjorn; Tselioudis, George; Tsushima, Yoko; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-01-01

The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions How does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO2 forcing and sea surface warming?CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions.

1. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations?

2. What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models?

3. Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds?

4. How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?

Uncertainty in Ecohydrological Modeling in an Arid Region Determined with Bayesian Methods

PubMed Central

Yang, Junjun; He, Zhibin; Du, Jun; Chen, Longfei; Zhu, Xi

2016-01-01

In arid regions, water resources are a key forcing factor in ecosystem circulation, and soil moisture is the critical link that constrains plant and animal life on the soil surface and underground. Simulation of soil moisture in arid ecosystems is inherently difficult due to high variability. We assessed the applicability of the process-oriented CoupModel for forecasting of soil water relations in arid regions. We used vertical soil moisture profiling for model calibration. We determined that model-structural uncertainty constituted the largest error; the model did not capture the extremes of low soil moisture in the desert-oasis ecotone (DOE), particularly below 40 cm soil depth. Our results showed that total uncertainty in soil moisture prediction was improved when input and output data, parameter value array, and structure errors were characterized explicitly. Bayesian analysis was applied with prior information to reduce uncertainty. The need to provide independent descriptions of uncertainty analysis (UA) in the input and output data was demonstrated. Application of soil moisture simulation in arid regions will be useful for dune-stabilization and revegetation efforts in the DOE. PMID:26963523

Animating climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DaPonte, John S.; Sadowski, Thomas; Thomas, Paul

2006-05-01

This paper describes a collaborative project conducted by the Computer Science Department at Southern Connecticut State University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS). Animations of output from a climate simulation math model used at GISS to predict rainfall and circulation have been produced for West Africa from June to September 2002. These early results have assisted scientists at GISS in evaluating the accuracy of the RM3 climate model when compared to similar results obtained from satellite imagery. The results presented below will be refined to better meet the needs of GISS scientists and will be expanded to cover other geographic regions for a variety of time frames.

Gravitational effects on global hemodynamics in different postures: A closed-loop multiscale mathematical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiancheng; Noda, Shigeho; Himeno, Ryutaro; Liu, Hao

2017-06-01

We present a novel methodology and strategy to predict pressures and flow rates in the global cardiovascular network in different postures varying from supine to upright. A closed-loop, multiscale mathematical model of the entire cardiovascular system (CVS) is developed through an integration of one-dimensional (1D) modeling of the large systemic arteries and veins, and zero-dimensional (0D) lumped-parameter modeling of the heart, the cardiac-pulmonary circulation, the cardiac and venous valves, as well as the microcirculation. A versatile junction model is proposed and incorporated into the 1D model to cope with splitting and/or merging flows across a multibranched junction, which is validated to be capable of estimating both subcritical and supercritical flows while ensuring the mass conservation and total pressure continuity. To model gravitational effects on global hemodynamics during postural change, a robust venous valve model is further established for the 1D venous flows and distributed throughout the entire venous network with consideration of its anatomically realistic numbers and locations. The present integrated model is proven to enable reasonable prediction of pressure and flow rate waveforms associated with cardiopulmonary circulation, systemic circulation in arteries and veins, as well as microcirculation within normal physiological ranges, particularly in mean venous pressures, which well match the in vivo measurements. Applications of the cardiovascular model at different postures demonstrate that gravity exerts remarkable influence on arterial and venous pressures, venous returns and cardiac outputs whereas venous pressures below the heart level show a specific correlation between central venous and hydrostatic pressures in right atrium and veins.

Utilizing Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) to Evaluate Entry Probe Mission Sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary L.; Justus, Carl G.

2008-01-01

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. An overview is presented of Mars-GRAM 2005 and its new features. The "auxiliary profile" option is one new feature of Mars-GRAM 2005. This option uses an input file of temperature and density versus altitude to replace the mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. Any source of data or alternate model output can be used to generate an auxiliary profile. Auxiliary profiles for this study were produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5) model) and a global Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) database. The global TES database has been specifically generated for purposes of making Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components, averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude-longitude bins and 15 degree Ls bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) sites are used as a sample of how Mars-GRAM' could be a valuable tool for planning of future Mars entry probe missions. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from the mesoscale model output and TES observed data for candidate MSL landing sites. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

Mechanical support of total cavopulmonary connection with an axial flow pump.

PubMed

Riemer, R Kirk; Amir, Gabriel; Reichenbach, Steven H; Reinhartz, Olaf

2005-08-01

Even under optimal circumstances, total cavopulmonary connection is associated with a continuous late risk of death. Hemodynamics are distinctly abnormal, with increased systemic venous pressures and frequent low cardiac output. Our study uses a sheep model of total cavopulmonary connection to test the response to axial flow pump (Thoratec HeartMate II; Thoratec Corporation (Pleasanton, Calif)) support of total cavopulmonary connection, which might be suitable to treat patients with failing Fontan circulation. Eight sheep (42-48 kg) were studied. After pilot studies in 3 animals, 5 underwent both pump-supported and nonsupported total cavopulmonary connection in alternating sequence for up to 2 hours. This was achieved with a 12-mm polytetrafluoroethylene graft from the (distally ligated) superior vena cava to the main pulmonary artery and a cannula placed in the inferior vena cava with an attached 16-mm Dacron graft to the main pulmonary artery. Pressures (arterial, inferior vena cava, left atrium, and pulmonary artery) and flows (ascending aorta and inferior vena cava) were recorded over 1 hour both with unsupported total cavopulmonary connection and after placing an axial flow pump (Thoratec HeartMate II) between the inferior vena caval inflow cannula and the main pulmonary artery. Under nonsupported total cavopulmonary connection circulation, inferior vena caval and aortic blood flow decreased by nearly 50%. Inferior vena caval pressure nearly doubled, whereas arterial pressure decreased by one third. Pulmonary artery pressure became nonpulsatile; however, mean pulmonary artery pressure and left atrial pressure did not change significantly. With pump-supported Fontan circulation, cardiac output, inferior vena caval flow, and arterial pressure returned to baseline. Inferior vena caval pressure decreased to below baseline levels. Mean pulmonary artery pressure and left atrial pressure again remained unchanged. Axial flow pump support from the inferior vena cava to the pulmonary artery can prevent the substantial decrease of aortic flow and pressure associated with total cavopulmonary connection and can reverse its poor hemodynamics. This is a simple model that can be used to further evaluate the potential of mechanical support as a treatment option in failing Fontan circulation.

Measurement of bronchial blood flow in the sheep by video dilution technique.

PubMed Central

Link, D P; Parsons, G H; Lantz, B M; Gunther, R A; Green, J F; Cross, C E

1985-01-01

Bronchial blood flow was determined in five adult anaesthetised sheep by the video dilution technique. This is a new fluoroscopic technique for measuring blood flow that requires only arterial catheterisation. Catheters were placed into the broncho-oesophageal artery and ascending aorta from the femoral arteries for contrast injections and subsequent videotape recording. The technique yields bronchial blood flow as a percentage of cardiac output. The average bronchial artery blood flow was 0.6% (SD 0.20%) of cardiac output. In one sheep histamine (90 micrograms) injected directly into the bronchial artery increased bronchial blood flow by a factor of 6 and histamine (90 micrograms) plus methacholine (4.5 micrograms) augmented flow by a factor of 7.5 while leaving cardiac output unchanged. This study confirms the high degree of reactivity of the bronchial circulation and demonstrates the feasibility of using the video dilution technique to investigate the determinants of total bronchial artery blood flow in a stable animal model avoiding thoracotomy. Images PMID:3883564

Bathymetric Changes Shaped by Longshore Currents on a Natural Beach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, W. L.; Slinn, D.; Plant, N.

2004-12-01

The goal of the project is to simulate beach morphology on time scales of hours to days. Our approach is to develop finite difference solutions from a coupled modeling system consisting of existing nearshore circulation, wave, and sediment flux models. We initialize the model with bathymetry from a dense data set north of the pier at the Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC. We integrate the model system forward in time and compare the results of the hind-cast of the beach evolution with the field observations. The model domain extends 1000 meters in the alongshore direction and 500 meters in the cross-shore direction with 5 meter grid spacing. The bathymetry is interpolated and filtered from CRAB transects. A second-degree exponential smoothing method is used to return the cross-shore beach profile near the edges of the modeled domain back to the mean alongshore profile, because the circulation model implements periodic boundary conditions in the alongshore direction. The offshore wave height and direction are taken from the 8-meter bipod at the FRF and input to the wave-model, SWAN (Spectral Wave Nearshore), with a Gaussian-shaped frequency spectrum and a directional spreading of 5 degrees. A constant depth induced wave breaking parameter of 0.73 is used. The resulting calculated wave induced force per unit surface area (gradient of the radiation stress) output from SWAN is used to drive the currents in the circulation model. The circulation model is based on the free-surface non-linear shallow water equations and uses the fourth order compact scheme to calculate spatial derivatives and a third order Adams-Bashforth time discretization scheme. Free slip, symmetry boundary conditions are applied at both the shoreline and offshore boundaries. The time averaged sediment flux is calculated at each location after one hour of circulation. The sediment flux model is based on the approach of Bagnold and includes approximations for both bed-load and suspended load. The bathymetry is then updated by computing the divergence of the time averaged sediment fluxes. The process is then repeated using the updated bathymetry in both SWAN and the circulation model. The cycle continues for a simulation of 10 hours. The results of bathymetric change vary for different time-dependent wave conditions and initial bathymetric profiles. Typical results indicate that for wave heights on the order of one meter, shoreline advancement and sandbar evolution is observed on the order of tens of centimeters.

Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative User Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2009-12-01

Is it conceivable that models run on 2007 computer hardware could provide robust and credible probabilistic information for decision support and user guidance at the ZIP code level for sub-daily meteorological events in 2060? In 2090? Retrospectively, how informative would output from today’s models have proven in 2003? or the 1930’s? Consultancies in the United Kingdom, including the Met Office, are offering services to “future-proof” their customers from climate change. How is a US or European based user or policy maker to determine the extent to which exciting new Bayesian methods are relevant here? or when a commercial supplier is vastly overselling the insights of today’s climate science? How are policy makers and academic economists to make the closely related decisions facing them? How can we communicate deep uncertainty in the future at small length-scales without undermining the firm foundation established by climate science regarding global trends? Three distinct aspects of the communication of the uses of climate model output targeting users and policy makers, as well as other specialist adaptation scientists, are discussed. First, a brief scientific evaluation of the length and time scales at which climate model output is likely to become uninformative is provided, including a note on the applicability the latest Bayesian methodology to current state-of-the-art general circulation models output. Second, a critical evaluation of the language often employed in communication of climate model output, a language which accurately states that models are “better”, have “improved” and now “include” and “simulate” relevant meteorological processed, without clearly identifying where the current information is thought to be uninformative and misleads, both for the current climate and as a function of the state of the (each) climate simulation. And thirdly, a general approach for evaluating the relevance of quantitative climate model output for a given problem is presented. Based on climate science, meteorology, and the details of the question in hand, this approach identifies necessary (never sufficient) conditions required for the rational use of climate model output in quantitative decision support tools. Inasmuch as climate forecasting is a problem of extrapolation, there will always be harsh limits on our ability to establish where a model is fit for purpose, this does not, however, limit us from identifying model noise as such, and thereby avoiding some cases of the misapplication and over interpretation of model output. It is suggested that failure to clearly communicate the limits of today’s climate model in providing quantitative decision relevant climate information to today’s users of climate information, would risk the credibility of tomorrow’s climate science and science based policy more generally.

Recent Advances in Immersive Visualization of Ocean Data: Virtual Reality Through the Web on Your Laptop Computer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermann, A. J.; Moore, C.; Soreide, N. N.

2002-12-01

Ocean circulation is irrefutably three dimensional, and powerful new measurement technologies and numerical models promise to expand our three-dimensional knowledge of the dynamics further each year. Yet, most ocean data and model output is still viewed using two-dimensional maps. Immersive visualization techniques allow the investigator to view their data as a three dimensional world of surfaces and vectors which evolves through time. The experience is not unlike holding a part of the ocean basin in one's hand, turning and examining it from different angles. While immersive, three dimensional visualization has been possible for at least a decade, the technology was until recently inaccessible (both physically and financially) for most researchers. It is not yet fully appreciated by practicing oceanographers how new, inexpensive computing hardware and software (e.g. graphics cards and controllers designed for the huge PC gaming market) can be employed for immersive, three dimensional, color visualization of their increasingly huge datasets and model output. In fact, the latest developments allow immersive visualization through web servers, giving scientists the ability to "fly through" three-dimensional data stored half a world away. Here we explore what additional insight is gained through immersive visualization, describe how scientists of very modest means can easily avail themselves of the latest technology, and demonstrate its implementation on a web server for Pacific Ocean model output.

In vitro comparison of support capabilities of intra-aortic balloon pump and Impella 2.5 left percutaneous.

PubMed

Schampaert, Stéphanie; van't Veer, Marcel; van de Vosse, Frans N; Pijls, Nico H J; de Mol, Bas A; Rutten, Marcel C M

2011-09-01

The Impella 2.5 left percutaneous (LP), a relatively new transvalvular assist device, challenges the position of the intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP), which has a long record in supporting patients after myocardial infarction and cardiac surgery. However, while more costly and more demanding in management, the advantages of the Impella 2.5 LP are yet to be established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the benefits of the 40 cc IABP and the Impella 2.5 LP operating at 47,000 rpm in vitro, and compare their circulatory support capabilities in terms of cardiac output, coronary flow, cardiac stroke work, and arterial blood pressure. Clinical scenarios of cardiogenic preshock and cardiogenic shock (CS), with blood pressure depression, lowered cardiac output, and constant heart rate of 80 bpm, were modeled in a model-controlled mock circulation, featuring a systemic, pulmonary, and coronary vascular bed. The ventricles, represented by servomotor-operated piston pumps, included the Frank-Starling mechanism. The systemic circulation was modeled with a flexible tube having close-to-human aortic dimensions and compliance properties. Proximally, it featured a branch mimicking the brachiocephalic arteries and a physiological correct coronary flow model. The rest of the systemic and pulmonary impedance was modeled by four-element Windkessel models. In this system, the enhancement of coronary flow and blood pressure was tested with both support systems under healthy and pathological conditions. Hemodynamic differences between the IABP and the Impella 2.5 LP were small. In our laboratory model, both systems approximately yielded a 10% cardiac output increase and a 10% coronary flow increase. However, since the Impella 2.5 LP provided significantly better left ventricular unloading, the circulatory support capabilities were slightly in favor of the Impella 2.5 LP. On the other hand, pulsatility was enhanced with the IABP and lowered with the Impella 2.5 LP. The support capabilities of both the IABP and the Impella 2.5 LP strongly depended on the simulated hemodynamic conditions. Maximum hemodynamic benefits were achieved when mechanical circulatory support was applied on a simulated scenario of deep CS. © 2011, Copyright Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e). Artificial Organs © 2011, International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Atmospheric circulation types and extreme areal precipitation in southern central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobeit, Jucundus; Homann, Markus; Philipp, Andreas; Beck, Christoph

2017-04-01

Gridded daily rainfall data for southern central Europe are aggregated to regions of similar precipitation variability by means of S-mode principal component analyses separately for the meteorological seasons. Atmospheric circulation types (CTs) are derived by a particular clustering technique including large-scale fields of SLP, vertical wind and relative humidity at the 700 hPa level as well as the regional rainfall time series. Multiple regression models with monthly CT frequencies as predictors are derived for monthly frequencies and amounts of regional precipitation extremes (beyond the 95 % percentile). Using predictor output from different global climate models (ECHAM6, ECHAM5, EC-EARTH) for different scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, A1B) and two projection periods (2021-2050, 2071-2100) leads to assessments of future changes in regional precipitation extremes. Most distinctive changes are indicated for the summer season with mainly increasing extremes for the earlier period and widespread decreasing extremes towards the end of the 21st century, mostly for the strong scenario. Considerable uncertainties arise from the predictor use of different global climate models, especially during the winter and spring seasons.

Climate Expressions in Cellulose Isotopologues Over the Southeast Asian Monsoon Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herzog, M. G.; LeGrande, A. N.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2013-12-01

Southeast Asia experiences a highly variant climate, strongly influenced by the Southeast Asian monsoon. Oxygen isotopes in the alpha cellulose of tree rings can be used as a proxy measure of climate, but it is not clear which parameter (precipitation, temperature, water vapor, etc) is the most influential. Earlier forward models using observed meteorological data have been successful simulating tree ring cellulose oxygen isotopes in the tropics. However, by creating a cellulose oxygen isotope model which uses input data from GISS ModelE climate runs, we are able to reduce model variability and integrate δ18O in tree ring cellulose over the entire monsoon domain for the past millennium. Simulated timescales of δ18O in cellulose show a consistent annual cycle, allowing confidence in the identification of interdecadal and interannual climate variability. By comparing paleoclimate data with Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs and a forward tree cellulose δ18O model, this study explores how δ18O can be used as a proxy measure of the monsoon on both local and regional scales. Simulated δ18O in soil water and δ18O in water vapor were found to explain the most variability in the paleoclimate data. Precipitation amount and temperature held little significance. Our results suggest that δ18O in tree cellulose is most influenced by regional controls directly related to cellulose production. top: monthly modeled output for d18O cellulose center: annually averaged model output of d18O cellulose bottom: observed monthly paleoproxy data for d18O cellulose

An improved standardization procedure to remove systematic low frequency variability biases in GCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehrotra, Rajeshwar; Sharma, Ashish

2012-12-01

The quality of the absolute estimates of general circulation models (GCMs) calls into question the direct use of GCM outputs for climate change impact assessment studies, particularly at regional scales. Statistical correction of GCM output is often necessary when significant systematic biasesoccur between the modeled output and observations. A common procedure is to correct the GCM output by removing the systematic biases in low-order moments relative to observations or to reanalysis data at daily, monthly, or seasonal timescales. In this paper, we present an extension of a recently published nested bias correction (NBC) technique to correct for the low- as well as higher-order moments biases in the GCM-derived variables across selected multiple time-scales. The proposed recursive nested bias correction (RNBC) approach offers an improved basis for applying bias correction at multiple timescales over the original NBC procedure. The method ensures that the bias-corrected series exhibits improvements that are consistently spread over all of the timescales considered. Different variations of the approach starting from the standard NBC to the more complex recursive alternatives are tested to assess their impacts on a range of GCM-simulated atmospheric variables of interest in downscaling applications related to hydrology and water resources. Results of the study suggest that three to five iteration RNBCs are the most effective in removing distributional and persistence related biases across the timescales considered.

Walker circulation in a transient climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesca, Elina; Grützun, Verena; Buehler, Stefan A.

2016-04-01

The tropical overturning circulations modulate the heat exchange across the tropics and between the tropics and the poles. The anthropogenic influence on the climate system will affect these circulations, impacting the dynamics of the Earth system. In this work we focus on the Walker circulation. We investigate its temporal and spatial dynamical changes and their link to other climate features, such as surface and sea-surface temperature patterns, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and ocean heat-uptake, both at global and regional scale. In order to determine the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the tropical circulation, we analyze the outputs of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project. We use the experiment with 1% year-1 increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling of the concentration. Consistent with previous studies (ex. Ma and Xie 2013), we find that for this experiment most GCMs associate a weakening Walker circulation to a warming transient climate. Due to the role of the Walker Pacific cell in the meridional heat and moisture transport across the tropical Pacific and also the connection to ENSO, we find that a weakened Walker circulation correlates with more extreme El-Niño events, although without a change in their frequency. The spatial analysis of the Pacific Walker cell suggests an eastward displacement of the ascending branch, which is consistent with positive SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and the link of the Pacific Walker cell to ENSO. Recent studies (ex. England et al. 2014) have linked a strengthened Walker circulation to stronger ocean heat uptake, especially in the western Pacific. The inter-model comparison of the correlation between Walker circulation intensity and ocean heat uptake does not convey a robust response for the investigated experiment. However, there is some evidence that a stronger weakening of the Walker circulation is linked to a higher transient climate response (temperature change by the time of CO2 doubling), which in turn might be related to a decreased ocean heat uptake. This uncertainty across the models we attribute to the multitude of factors controlling ocean and atmosphere heat exchange, both at global and regional scales, as well as to the present capabilities of GCMs in simulating this exchange. References: England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A., 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change 4 (3): 222-227. Ma, J., and Xie, S. P., 2013. Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation*. Journal of Climate, 26 (8): 2482-2501

Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toye, Habib; Zhan, Peng; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kartadikaria, Aditya R.; Huang, Huang; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2017-07-01

We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Soumik; Bhatla, R.; Mall, R. K.; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Sahai, A. K.

2018-03-01

Climate model faces considerable difficulties in simulating the rainfall characteristics of southwest summer monsoon. In this study, the dynamical downscaling of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF's) ERA-Interim (EIN15) has been utilized for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) through the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) over the South Asia Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) domain. The complexities of model simulation over a particular terrain are generally influenced by factors such as complex topography, coastal boundary, and lack of unbiased initial and lateral boundary conditions. In order to overcome some of these limitations, the RegCM-4.3 is employed for simulating the rainfall characteristics over the complex topographical conditions. For reliable rainfall simulation, implementations of numerous lower boundary conditions are forced in the RegCM-4.3 with specific horizontal grid resolution of 50 km over South Asia CORDEX domain. The analysis is considered for 30 years of climatological simulation of rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and wind with different vertical levels over the specified region. The dependency of model simulation with the forcing of EIN15 initial and lateral boundary conditions is used to understand the impact of simulated rainfall characteristics during different phases of summer monsoon. The results obtained from this study are used to evaluate the activity of initial conditions of zonal wind circulation speed, which causes an increase in the uncertainty of regional model output over the region under investigation. Further, the results showed that the EIN15 zonal wind circulation lacks sufficient speed over the specified region in a particular time, which was carried forward by the RegCM output and leads to a disrupted regional simulation in the climate model.

Hypochlorhydria and hypergastrinaemia in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed Central

de Witte, T J; Geerdink, P J; Lamers, C B; Boerbooms, A M; van der Korst, J K

1979-01-01

In order to evaluate the incidence and aetiology of hypergastrinaemia 53 patients with seropositive rheumatoid arthritis were examined for gastric acid secretion, fasting serum gastrin concentration, circulating parietal cell antibodies, and some parameters of the activity of inflammation of rheumatoid arthritis. The basal and maximum acid output was found to be subnormal in this group (P less than 0.01), and in 11 of these patients (23%) the fasting serum gastrin levels were raised (P less than 0.05). This hypergastrinaemia correlated strongly with maximum acid output. Only in cases of achlorhydria or hypochlorhydria (maximum acid output less than 2 mmol/l) was the serum gastrin level markedly raised. Two out of 5 patients with achlorhydria were found to have circulating parietal cell antibodies, and 1 had decreased absorption of vitamin B12. No relationship was found between serum gastrin and duration or activity of rheumatoid arthritis; nor was there a relationship between basal serum gastrin and the various antirheumatic drugs administered. PMID:434940

Effects of body position on exercise capacity and pulmonary vascular pressure-flow relationships.

PubMed

Forton, Kevin; Motoji, Yoshiki; Deboeck, Gael; Faoro, Vitalie; Naeije, Robert

2016-11-01

There has been revival of interest in exercise testing of the pulmonary circulation for the diagnosis of pulmonary vascular disease, but there still is uncertainty about body position and the most relevant measurements. Doppler echocardiography pulmonary hemodynamic measurements were performed at progressively increased workloads in 26 healthy adult volunteers in supine, semirecumbent, and upright positions that were randomly assigned at 24-h intervals. Mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP) was estimated from the maximum tricuspid regurgitation jet velocity. Cardiac output was calculated from the left ventricular outflow velocity-time integral. Pulmonary vascular distensibility α-index, the percent change of vessel diameter per millimeter mercury of mPAP, was calculated from multipoint mPAP-cardiac output plots. Body position did not affect maximum oxygen uptake (Vo 2max ), maximum respiratory exchange ratio, ventilatory equivalent for carbon dioxide, or slope of mPAP-cardiac output relationships, which was on average of 1.5 ± 0.4 mmHg·l -1 ·min -1 Maximum mPAP, cardiac output, and total pulmonary vascular resistance were, respectively, 34 ± 4 mmHg, 18 ± 3 l/min, and 1.9 ± 0.3 Wood units. However, the semirecumbent position was associated with a 10% decrease in maximum workload. Furthermore, cardiac output-workload or cardiac output-Vo 2 relationships were nonlinear and variable. These results suggest that body position does not affect maximum exercise testing of the pulmonary circulation when results are expressed as mPAP-cardiac output or maximum total pulmonary vascular resistance. Maximum workload is decreased in semirecumbent compared with upright exercise. Workload or Vo 2 cannot reliably be used as surrogates for cardiac output. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2000 Version (Mars-GRAM 2000): Users Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; James, B. F.

2000-01-01

This report presents Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2000 Version (Mars-GRAM 2000) and its new features. All parameterizations for temperature, pressure, density, and winds versus height, latitude, longitude, time of day, and L(sub s) have been replaced by input data tables from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) for the surface through 80-km altitude and the University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) for 80 to 170 km. A modified Stewart thermospheric model is still used for higher altitudes and for dependence on solar activity. "Climate factors" to tune for agreement with GCM data are no longer needed. Adjustment of exospheric temperature is still an option. Consistent with observations from Mars Global Surveyor, a new longitude-dependent wave model is included with user input to specify waves having 1 to 3 wavelengths around the planet. A simplified perturbation model has been substituted for the earlier one. An input switch allows users to select either East or West longitude positive. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAM source code and data files and for running the program. It also provides sample input and output and an example for incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

Control of respiration-driven retrograde flow in the subdiaphragmatic venous return of the Fontan circulation

PubMed Central

Vukicevic, M; Conover, T; Jaeggli, M; Zhou, J; Pennati, G; Hsia, TY; Figliola, RS

2014-01-01

Respiration influences the subdiaphragmatic venous return in the total cavopulmonary connection (TCPC) of the Fontan circulation whereby both the inferior vena cava (IVC) and hepatic vein flows can experience retrograde motion. Controlling retrograde flows could improve patient outcomes. Using a patient-specific model within a Fontan mock circulatory system with respiration, we inserted a valve into the IVC to examine its effects on local hemodynamics while varying retrograde volumes by changing vascular impedances. A bovine valved conduit reduced IVC retrograde flow to within 3% of antegrade flow in all cases. The valve closed only under conditions supporting retrograde flow and its effects on local hemodynamics increased with larger retrograde volume. Liver and TCPC pressures improved only while the valve leaflets were closed while cycle-averaged pressures improved only slightly (italic>1 mm Hg). Increased pulmonary vascular resistance raised mean circulation pressures but the valve functioned and cardiac output improved and stabilized. Power loss across the TCPC improved by 12–15% (pbold>0.05) with a valve. The effectiveness of valve therapy is dependent on patient vascular impedance. PMID:24814833

Blood money: Harvey's De motu cordis (1628) as an exercise in accounting.

PubMed

Neuss, Michael J

2018-04-13

William Harvey's famous quantitative argument from De motu cordis (1628) about the circulation of blood explained how a small amount of blood could recirculate and nourish the entire body, upending the Galenic conception of the blood's motion. This paper argues that the quantitative argument drew on the calculative and rhetorical skills of merchants, including Harvey's own brothers. Modern translations of De motu cordis obscure the language of accountancy that Harvey himself used. Like a merchant accounting for credits and debits, intake and output, goods and moneys, Harvey treated venous and arterial blood as essentially commensurate, quantifiable and fungible. For Harvey, the circulation (and recirculation) of blood was an arithmetical necessity. The development of Harvey's circulatory model followed shifts in the epistemic value of mercantile forms of knowledge, including accounting and arithmetic, also drawing on an Aristotelian language of reciprocity and balance that Harvey shared with mercantile advisers to the royal court. This paper places Harvey's calculations in a previously underappreciated context of economic crisis, whose debates focused largely on questions of circulation.

On the influence of meteorological input on photochemical modelling of a severe episode over a coastal area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirovano, G.; Coll, I.; Bedogni, M.; Alessandrini, S.; Costa, M. P.; Gabusi, V.; Lasry, F.; Menut, L.; Vautard, R.

The modelling reconstruction of the processes determining the transport and mixing of ozone and its precursors in complex terrain areas is a challenging task, particularly when local-scale circulations, such as sea breeze, take place. Within this frame, the ESCOMPTE European campaign took place in the vicinity of Marseille (south-east of France) in summer 2001. The main objectives of the field campaign were to document several photochemical episodes, as well as to constitute a detailed database for chemistry transport models intercomparison. CAMx model has been applied on the largest intense observation periods (IOP) (June 21-26, 2001) in order to evaluate the impacts of two state-of-the-art meteorological models, RAMS and MM5, on chemical model outputs. The meteorological models have been used as best as possible in analysis mode, thus allowing to identify the spread arising in pollutant concentrations as an indication of the intrinsic uncertainty associated to the meteorological input. Simulations have been deeply investigated and compared with a considerable subset of observations both at ground level and along vertical profiles. The analysis has shown that both models were able to reproduce the main circulation features of the IOP. The strongest discrepancies are confined to the Planetary Boundary Layer, consisting of a clear tendency to underestimate or overestimate wind speed over the whole domain. The photochemical simulations showed that variability in circulation intensity was crucial mainly for the representation of the ozone peaks and of the shape of ozone plumes at the ground that have been affected in the same way over the whole domain and all along the simulated period. As a consequence, such differences can be thought of as a possible indicator for the uncertainty related to the definition of meteorological fields in a complex terrain area.

Enhancement of Local Climate Analysis Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horsfall, F. M.; Timofeyeva, M. M.; Dutton, J.

2012-12-01

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) will enhance its Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) to incorporate specific capabilities to meet the needs of various users including energy, health, and other communities. LCAT is an online interactive tool that provides quick and easy access to climate data and allows users to conduct analyses at the local level such as time series analysis, trend analysis, compositing, correlation and regression techniques, with others to be incorporated as needed. LCAT uses principles of Artificial Intelligence in connecting human and computer perceptions on application of data and scientific techniques in multiprocessing simultaneous users' tasks. Future development includes expanding the type of data currently imported by LCAT (historical data at stations and climate divisions) to gridded reanalysis and General Circulation Model (GCM) data, which are available on global grids and thus will allow for climate studies to be conducted at international locations. We will describe ongoing activities to incorporate NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS) reanalysis data (CFSR), NOAA model output data, including output from the National Multi Model Ensemble Prediction System (NMME) and longer term projection models, and plans to integrate LCAT into the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and its protocols for accessing model output and observational data to ensure there is no redundancy in development of tools that facilitate scientific advancements and use of climate model information in applications. Validation and inter-comparison of forecast models will be included as part of the enhancement to LCAT. To ensure sustained development, we will investigate options for open sourcing LCAT development, in particular, through the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).

Climate and the equilibrium state of land surface hydrology parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

1991-01-01

For given climatic rates of precipitation and potential evaporation, the land surface hydrology parameterizations of atmospheric general circulation models will maintain soil-water storage conditions that balance the moisture input and output. The surface relative soil saturation for such climatic conditions serves as a measure of the land surface parameterization state under a given forcing. The equilibrium value of this variable for alternate parameterizations of land surface hydrology are determined as a function of climate and the sensitivity of the surface to shifts and changes in climatic forcing are estimated.

A passive dual-circulator based transmit/receive switch for use with reflection resonators in pulse EPR

PubMed Central

Subramanian, V. S.; Epel, Boris; Mailer, Colin; Halpern, Howard J.

2009-01-01

In order to protect the low noise amplifier (LNA) in the receive arm of a pulsed 250 MHz EPR bridge, it is necessary to install as much isolation as possible between the power exciting the spin system and the LNA when high power is present in the receive arm of the bridge, while allowing the voltage induced by the magnetization in the spin sample to be passed undistorted and undiminished to the LNA once power is reduced below the level that can cause a LNA damage. We discuss a combination of techniques to accomplish this involving the power-routing circulator in the bridge, a second circulator acting as an isolator with passive shunt PIN diodes immediately following the second circulator. The low resistance of the forward biased PIN diode passively generates an impedance mismatch at the second circulator output port during the high power excitation pulse and resonator ring down. The mismatch reflects the high power to the remaining port of the second circulator, dumping it into a system impedance matched load. Only when the power diminishes below the diode conduction threshold will the resistance of the PIN diode rise to a value much higher than the system impedance. This brings the device into conduction mode. We find that the present design passively limits the output power to 14 dBm independent of the input power. For high input power levels the isolation may exceed 60 dB. This level of isolation is sufficient to fully protect the LNA of pulse EPR bridge. PMID:20052312

Cardiac output by pulse contour analysis does not match the increase measured by rebreathing during human spaceflight.

PubMed

Hughson, Richard L; Peterson, Sean D; Yee, Nicholas J; Greaves, Danielle K

2017-11-01

Pulse contour analysis of the noninvasive finger arterial pressure waveform provides a convenient means to estimate cardiac output (Q̇). The method has been compared with standard methods under a range of conditions but never before during spaceflight. We compared pulse contour analysis with the Modelflow algorithm to estimates of Q̇ obtained by rebreathing during preflight baseline testing and during the final month of long-duration spaceflight in nine healthy male astronauts. By Modelflow analysis, stroke volume was greater in supine baseline than seated baseline or inflight. Heart rate was reduced in supine baseline so that there were no differences in Q̇ by Modelflow estimate between the supine (7.02 ± 1.31 l/min, means ± SD), seated (6.60 ± 1.95 l/min), or inflight (5.91 ± 1.15 l/min) conditions. In contrast, rebreathing estimates of Q̇ increased from seated baseline (4.76 ± 0.67 l/min) to inflight (7.00 ± 1.39 l/min, significant interaction effect of method and spaceflight, P < 0.001). Pulse contour analysis utilizes a three-element Windkessel model that incorporates parameters dependent on aortic pressure-area relationships that are assumed to represent the entire circulation. We propose that a large increase in vascular compliance in the splanchnic circulation invalidates the model under conditions of spaceflight. Future spaceflight research measuring cardiac function needs to consider this important limitation for assessing absolute values of Q̇ and stroke volume. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Noninvasive assessment of cardiac function during human spaceflight is an important tool to monitor astronaut health. This study demonstrated that pulse contour analysis of finger arterial blood pressure to estimate cardiac output failed to track the 46% increase measured by a rebreathing method. These results strongly suggest that alternative methods not dependent on pulse contour analysis are required to track cardiac function in spaceflight. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Implications of summertime marine stratocumulus on the North American climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, John H. E.

1994-01-01

This study focuses on the effects of summertime stratocumulus over the eastern Pacific. This cloud is linked to the semi-permanent sub-tropical highs that dominate the low-level circulation over the Pacific and Atlantic. Subsidence on the eastern flank of these highs creates an inversion based about 800 m above sea level that caps moist air near the surface. This air overlies cool waters driven by upwelling along the coastal regions of North America. Strong surface north-westerlies mix the boundary layer enough to saturate the air just below the capping inversion. Widespread stratocumulus is thus formed. All calculations were carried out using the GENESIS general circulation model that was run at MSFC. Among the more important properties of the model is that it includes radiative forcing due to absorption of solar radiation and the emission of infrared radiation, interactive clouds (both stratocumulus and cumulus types), exchanges of heat and moisture with the lower boundary. Clouds are interactive in the sense that they impact the circulation by modifying the fields of radiative heating and turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture in the boundary layer. In turn, clouds are modified by the winds through the advection of moisture. In order to isolate the effects of mid- and high-latitude stratocumulus, two runs were made with the model: one with and the other without stratocumulus. The runs were made for a year, but with perpetual July conditions, i.e., solar forcing was fixed. The diurnal solar cycle, however, was allowed for. The sea surface temperature distribution was fixed in both runs to represent climatological July conditions. All dependent variables were represented at 12 surfaces of constant sigma = p/p(sub O), where p is pressure and p(sub O) is surface pressure. To facilitate analysis, model output was transformed to constant pressure surfaces. Structures no smaller in size than 7.5 degrees longitude and 4.5 degrees in latitude were resolved. Smaller features of the circulation were parameterized. The model thus captures synoptic- and planetary-scale circulation features.

An Integrated Gulf Coast Monitoring System Using Field, Remote Sensing and Model Results (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Sa, E. J.; Ko, D. S.; Stone, G.; Walker, N. D.

2010-12-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico is strongly influenced by the discharge of water, nutrients, dissolved and suspended particulate matter from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River system, the largest in North America. It is also frequently impacted by energetic meteorological events that cause storm surge, high waves and affects water quality along its coastal waters. We describe the components of an integrated web-based Gulf Coast Information System (GCIS) (http://gulf-coast.lsu.edu) developed to serve remotely sensed products from a number of NASA satellite sensors such as the SeaWiFS and MODIS ocean color and the QuikSCAT wind sensors. GCIS also serves high-resolution nowcast and 48-hour forecast outputs (sea level variations, temperature, salinity and currents) from a 3-dimensional NCOM coastal circulation model for the coastal states of Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas. The GCIS is coupled to the near real-time outputs of a field monitoring and satellite receiving system, the Wave-Current Information System (WAVCIS) (http://www.wavcis.lsu.edu) and Earth Scan Laboratory (ESL) (www.esl.lsu.edu), respectively that provide critical decision support during hurricanes to the Gulf Coast. We present results on the use of the combined field, satellite and model outputs to monitor the effects of fronts, hurricanes, oil spill and the potential to study longer term climate impacts along the Gulf coast.

Interannual Variability of Martian Global Dust Storms: Simulations with a Low-Order Model of the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pankine, A. A.; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

2002-01-01

We present simulations of the interannual variability of martian global dust storms (GDSs) with a simplified low-order model (LOM) of the general circulation. The simplified model allows one to conduct computationally fast long-term simulations of the martian climate system. The LOM is constructed by Galerkin projection of a 2D (zonally averaged) general circulation model (GCM) onto a truncated set of basis functions. The resulting LOM consists of 12 coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing atmospheric dynamics and dust transport within the Hadley cell. The forcing of the model is described by simplified physics based on Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction. The atmosphere and surface are coupled: atmospheric heating depends on the dustiness of the atmosphere, and the surface dust source depends on the strength of the atmospheric winds. Parameters of the model are tuned to fit the output of the NASA AMES GCM and the fit is generally very good. Interannual variability of GDSs is possible in the IBM, but only when stochastic forcing is added to the model. The stochastic forcing could be provided by transient weather systems or some surface process such as redistribution of the sand particles in storm generating zones on the surface. The results are sensitive to the value of the saltation threshold, which hints at a possible feedback between saltation threshold and dust storm activity. According to this hypothesis, erodable material builds up its a result of a local process, whose effect is to lower the saltation threshold until a GDS occurs. The saltation threshold adjusts its value so that dust storms are barely able to occur.

Simulations of Antarctic ice shelves and the Southern Ocean in the POP2x ocean model coupled with the BISICLES ice-sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, Xylar; Martin, Daniel; Price, Stephen; Maltrud, Mathew

2014-05-01

We present initial results from Antarctic, ice-ocean coupled simulations using large-scale ocean circulation and ice-sheet evolution models. This presentation focuses on the ocean model, POP2x, which is a modified version of POP, a fully eddying, global-scale ocean model (Smith and Gent, 2002). POP2x allows for circulation beneath ice shelf cavities using the method of partial top cells (Losch, 2008). Boundary layer physics, which control fresh water and salt exchange at the ice-ocean interface, are implemented following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013) and with results from other idealized ice-ocean coupling test cases (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2012). A companion presentation, 'Fully resolved whole-continent Antarctica simulations using the BISICLES AMR ice sheet model coupled with the POP2x Ocean Model', concentrates more on the ice-sheet model, BISICLES (Cornford et al., 2012), which includes a 1st-order accurate momentum balance (L1L2) and uses block structured, adaptive-mesh refinement to more accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. For idealized test cases focused on marine-ice sheet dynamics, BISICLES output compares very favorably relative to simulations based on the full, nonlinear Stokes momentum balance (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013). Here, we present large-scale (Southern Ocean) simulations using POP2x at 0.1 degree resolution with fixed ice shelf geometries, which are used to obtain and validate modeled submarine melt rates against observations. These melt rates are, in turn, used to force evolution of the BISICLES model. An offline-coupling scheme, which we compare with the ice-ocean coupling work of Goldberg et al. (2012), is then used to sequentially update the sub-shelf cavity geometry seen by POP2x.

Atmospheric Circulations of Rocky Planets as Heat Engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koll, D. D. B.

2017-12-01

Rocky planets are extremely common in the galaxy and include Earth, Mars, Venus, and hundreds of exoplanets. To understand and compare the climates of these planets, we need theories that are general enough to accommodate drastically different atmospheric and planetary properties. Unfortunately, few such theories currently exist.For Earth, there is a well-known principle that its atmosphere resembles a heat engine - the atmosphere absorbs heat near the surface, at a hot temperature, and emits heat to space in the upper troposphere, at a cold temperature, which allows it to perform work and balance dissipative processes such as friction. However, previous studies also showed that Earth's hydrological cycle uses up a large fraction of the heat engine's work output, which makes it difficult to view other atmospheres as heat engines.In this work I extend the heat engine principle from Earth towards other rocky planets. I explore both dry and moist atmospheres in an idealized general circulation model (GCM), and quantify their work output using entropy budgets. First, I show that convection and turbulent heat diffusion are important entropy sources in dry atmospheres. I develop a scaling that accounts for its effects, which allows me to predict the strength of frictional dissipation in dry atmospheres. There are strong parallels between my scaling and so-called potential intensity theory, which is a seminal theory for understanding tropical cyclones on Earth. Second, I address how moisture affects atmospheric heat engines. Moisture modifies both the thermodynamic properties of air and releases latent heat when water vapor condenses. I explore the impact of both effects, and use numerical simulations to explore the difference between dry and moist atmospheric circulations across a wide range of climates.

Evaluation of statistically downscaled GCM output as input for hydrological and stream temperature simulation in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (1961–99)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Markstrom, Steven

2014-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of daily surface climate for historical conditions (1961–99) and the implications when they are used to drive hydrologic and stream temperature models were assessed for the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River basin (ACFB). The ACFB is a 50 000 km2 basin located in the southeastern United States. Three GCMs were statistically downscaled, using an asynchronous regional regression model (ARRM), to ⅛° grids of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature. These ARRM-based climate datasets were used as input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model used to simulate and evaluate the effects of various combinations of climate and land use on watershed response. The ACFB was divided into 258 hydrologic response units (HRUs) in which the components of flow (groundwater, subsurface, and surface) are computed in response to climate, land surface, and subsurface characteristics of the basin. Daily simulations of flow components from PRMS were used with the climate to simulate in-stream water temperatures using the Stream Network Temperature (SNTemp) model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model for branched stream networks.The climate, hydrology, and stream temperature for historical conditions were evaluated by comparing model outputs produced from historical climate forcings developed from gridded station data (GSD) versus those produced from the three statistically downscaled GCMs using the ARRM methodology. The PRMS and SNTemp models were forced with the GSD and the outputs produced were treated as “truth.” This allowed for a spatial comparison by HRU of the GSD-based output with ARRM-based output. Distributional similarities between GSD- and ARRM-based model outputs were compared using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test in combination with descriptive metrics such as the mean and variance and an evaluation of rare and sustained events. In general, precipitation and streamflow quantities were negatively biased in the downscaled GCM outputs, and results indicate that the downscaled GCM simulations consistently underestimate the largest precipitation events relative to the GSD. The KS test results indicate that ARRM-based air temperatures are similar to GSD at the daily time step for the majority of the ACFB, with perhaps subweekly averaging for stream temperature. Depending on GCM and spatial location, ARRM-based precipitation and streamflow requires averaging of up to 30 days to become similar to the GSD-based output.Evaluation of the model skill for historical conditions suggests some guidelines for use of future projections; while it seems correct to place greater confidence in evaluation metrics which perform well historically, this does not necessarily mean those metrics will accurately reflect model outputs for future climatic conditions. Results from this study indicate no “best” overall model, but the breadth of analysis can be used to give the product users an indication of the applicability of the results to address their particular problem. Since results for historical conditions indicate that model outputs can have significant biases associated with them, the range in future projections examined in terms of change relative to historical conditions for each individual GCM may be more appropriate.

Computational analysis of hybrid Norwood circulation with distal aortic arch obstruction and reverse Blalock-Taussig shunt.

PubMed

Ceballos, Andres; Argueta-Morales, I Ricardo; Divo, Eduardo; Osorio, Ruben; Caldarone, Christopher A; Kassab, Alain J; Decampli, William M

2012-11-01

The hemodynamics characteristics of the hybrid Norwood (HN) procedure differ from those of the conventional Norwood and are not fully understood. We present a multiscale model of HN circulation to understand local hemodynamics and effects of aortic arch stenosis and a reverse Blalock-Taussig shunt (RBTS) on coronary and carotid perfusion. Four 3-dimensional models of four HN anatomic variants were developed, with and without 90% distal preductal arch stenosis and with and without a 4-mm RBTS. A lumped parameter model of the circulation was coupled to a local 3-dimensional computational fluid dynamics model. Outputs from the lumped parameter model provided waveform boundary conditions for the computational fluid dynamics model. A 90% distal arch stenosis reduced pressure and net flow-rate through the coronary and carotid arteries by 30%. Addition of the RBTS completely restored pressure and flow rate to baseline in these vessels. Zones of flow stagnation, flow reversal, and recirculation in the presence of stenosis were rendered more orderly by addition of the RBTS. In the absence of stenosis, presence of the shunt resulted in extensive zones of disturbed flow within the RBTS and arch. We found that a 4-mm × 21-mm RBTS completely compensated for the effects of a 90% discrete stenosis of the distal aortic arch in the HN. Placed preventatively, the RBTS and arch displayed zones with thrombogenic potential showing recirculation and stagnation that persist for a substantial fraction of the cardiac cycle, indicating that anticoagulation should be considered with a prophylactic RBTS. Copyright © 2012 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling fine-scale coral larval dispersal and interisland connectivity to help designate mutually-supporting coral reef marine protected areas: Insights from Maui Nui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt; van Ormondt, Maarten; Chen, Yi-Leng; Elias, Edwin P. L.

2017-01-01

Connectivity among individual marine protected areas (MPAs) is one of the most important considerations in the design of integrated MPA networks. To provide such information for managers in Hawaii, USA, a numerical circulation model was developed to determine the role of ocean currents in transporting coral larvae from natal reefs throughout the high volcanic islands of the Maui Nui island complex in the southeastern Hawaiian Archipelago. Spatially- and temporally-varying wind, wave, and circulation model outputs were used to drive a km-scale, 3-dimensional, physics-based circulation model for Maui Nui. The model was calibrated and validated using satellite-tracked ocean surface current drifters deployed during coral-spawning conditions, then used to simulate the movement of the larvae of the dominant reef-building coral, Porites compressa, from 17 reefs during eight spawning events in 2010–2013. These simulations make it possible to investigate not only the general dispersal patterns from individual coral reefs, but also how anomalous conditions during individual spawning events can result in large deviations from those general patterns. These data also help identify those reefs that are dominated by self-seeding and those where self-seeding is limited to determine their relative susceptibility to stressors and potential roadblocks to recovery. Overall, the numerical model results indicate that many of the coral reefs in Maui Nui seed reefs on adjacent islands, demonstrating the interconnected nature of the coral reefs in Maui Nui and providing a key component of the scientific underpinning essential for the design of a mutually supportive network of MPAs to enhance conservation of coral reefs.

A network-base analysis of CMIP5 "historical" experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bracco, A.; Foudalis, I.; Dovrolis, C.

2012-12-01

In computer science, "complex network analysis" refers to a set of metrics, modeling tools and algorithms commonly used in the study of complex nonlinear dynamical systems. Its main premise is that the underlying topology or network structure of a system has a strong impact on its dynamics and evolution. By allowing to investigate local and non-local statistical interaction, network analysis provides a powerful, but only marginally explored, framework to validate climate models and investigate teleconnections, assessing their strength, range, and impacts on the climate system. In this work we propose a new, fast, robust and scalable methodology to examine, quantify, and visualize climate sensitivity, while constraining general circulation models (GCMs) outputs with observations. The goal of our novel approach is to uncover relations in the climate system that are not (or not fully) captured by more traditional methodologies used in climate science and often adopted from nonlinear dynamical systems analysis, and to explain known climate phenomena in terms of the network structure or its metrics. Our methodology is based on a solid theoretical framework and employs mathematical and statistical tools, exploited only tentatively in climate research so far. Suitably adapted to the climate problem, these tools can assist in visualizing the trade-offs in representing global links and teleconnections among different data sets. Here we present the methodology, and compare network properties for different reanalysis data sets and a suite of CMIP5 coupled GCM outputs. With an extensive model intercomparison in terms of the climate network that each model leads to, we quantify how each model reproduces major teleconnections, rank model performances, and identify common or specific errors in comparing model outputs and observations.

Effects of parasite pressure on parasite mortality and reproductive output in a rodent-flea system: inferring host defense trade-offs.

PubMed

Warburton, Elizabeth M; Kam, Michael; Bar-Shira, Enav; Friedman, Aharon; Khokhlova, Irina S; Koren, Lee; Asfur, Mustafa; Geffen, Eli; Kiefer, Daniel; Krasnov, Boris R; Degen, A Allan

2016-09-01

Evaluating host resistance via parasite fitness helps place host-parasite relationships within evolutionary and ecological contexts; however, few studies consider both these processes simultaneously. We investigated how different levels of parasite pressure affect parasite mortality and reproductive success in relationship to host defense efforts, using the rodent Gerbillus nanus and the flea Xenopsylla conformis as a host-parasite system. Fifteen immune-naïve male rodents were infested with 20, 50, or 100 fleas for four weeks. During this time number of new imagoes produced per adult flea (our flea reproductive output metric), flea mortality, and change in circulating anti-flea immunoglobulin G (our measure of adaptive immune defense) were monitored. Three hypotheses guided this work: (1) increasing parasite pressure would heighten host defenses; (2) parasite mortality would increase and parasite reproductive output would decrease with increasing investment in host defense; and (3) hosts under high parasite pressure could invest in behavioral and/or immune responses. We predicted that at high infestation levels (a) parasite mortality would increase; (b) flea reproductive output per individual would decrease; and (c) host circulating anti-flea antibody levels would increase. The hypotheses were partially supported. Flea mortality significantly increased and flea reproductive output significantly decreased as flea pressure increased. Host adaptive immune defense did not significantly change with increasing flea pressure. Therefore, we inferred that investment in host behavioral defense, either alone or in combination with density-dependent effects, may be more efficient at increasing flea mortality and decreasing flea reproductive output than antibody production during initial infestation in this system.

Effect of decreased gravity on circulation in the rat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Popovic, Vojin P.

1987-01-01

It has been reported that hypokinesia and bed rest induce cardiovascular changes similar to those observed in space flights. Using an animal model that was developed in our laboratory and that was extensively studied and characterized in our laboratory and other laboratories in this country and abroad, we have studied circulatory mechanisms that occur during exposure to hypokinesia (with or without negative tilt) as well as during readaptation to control conditions (free activity). We believe that this study contributes to better understanding of mammalian circulatory mechanisms that operate under 1-g force and will serve to provide control data to be compared with cardiovascular data obtained in conditions of a Space lab. Because survey and anesthesia drastically decrease cardiac output and other circulatory parameters in rats, only unanesthetized rats were used in experiments. Aorta and right atrium of the animals were permanently cannulated fifteen to twenty days before experiments. Arterial and right ventricular blood pressures, cardiac output, cerebral and other regional blood flow, ECG, other cardiovascular parameters, and oxygen consumption were measured with techniques routinely used in our laboratory. Specifically, we undertook the following investigations during the period of three years: (1) A study of circulatory changes (right ventricular pressure, arterial blood pressure, heart rate, cardiac output) during exposure of rats to hypokinetic conditions. Used the head down tilted Holton-Musacchia system in order to compare the results with the results already obtained on unrestrained rats, (2) Humoral changes were investigated in animals exposed to hypokinesia; also, lymphocyte and neutrophil levels in hypokinetic animals (with or without tilt) were determined to ascertain the level of induced stress and possible changes observed in weightless animals, and (3) circulating blood volume was determined during and after hypokinesia.

Some remarks on using circulation classifications to evaluate circulation model and atmospheric reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

2017-04-01

Automated classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns represent a tool widely used for studying the circulation in both the real atmosphere, represented by atmospheric reanalyses, and in circulation model outputs. It is well known that the results of studies utilizing one of these methods are influenced by several subjective choices, of which one of the most crucial is the selection of the method itself. Authors of the present study used eight methods from the COST733 classification software (Grosswettertypes, two variants of Jenkinson-Collison, Lund, T-mode PCA with oblique rotation of principal components, k-medoids, k-means with differing starting partitions, and SANDRA) to assess the winter 1961-2000 daily sea level pressure patterns in five reanalysis datasets (ERA-40, NCEP-1, JRA-55, 20CRv2, and ERA-20C), as well as in the historical runs and 21st century projections of an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs. The classification methods were quite consistent in displaying the strongest biases in GCM simulations. However, the results also showed that multiple classifications are required to quantify the biases in certain types of circulation (e.g., zonal circulation or blocking-like patterns). There was no sign that any method should have a tendency to over- or underestimate the biases in circulation type frequency. The bias found by a particular method for a particular domain clearly reflects the ability of the algorithm to detect groups of similar patterns within the data space, and whether these groups do or do not differ one dataset to another is to a large extend coincidental. There were, nevertheless, systematic differences between groups of methods that use some form of correlation to classify the patterns to circulation types (CTs) and those which use the Euclidean distance. The comparison of reanalyses, which was conducted over eight European domains, showed that there is even a weak negative correlation between the average differences of CT frequency found by cluster analysis methods on one hand, and the remaining methods on the other. This suggests that groups of different methods capture different kinds of errors and that averaging the results obtained by an ensemble of methods very likely leads to an underestimation of the errors actually present in the data.

Mechanisms Regulating the Cardiac Output Response to Cyanide Infusion, a Model of Hypoxia

PubMed Central

Liang, Chang-seng; Huckabee, William E.

1973-01-01

When tissue metabolic changes like those of hypoxia were induced by intra-aortic infusion of cyanide in dogs, cardiac output began to increase after 3 to 5 min, reached a peak (220% of the control value) at 15 min, and returned to control in 40 min. This pattern of cardiac output rise was not altered by vagotomy with or without atropine pretreatment. However, this cardiac output response could be differentiated into three phases by pretreating the animals with agents that block specific activities of the sympatho-adrenal system. First, ganglionic blockade produced by mecamylamine or sympathetic nerve blockade by bretylium abolished the middle phase of the cardiac output seen in the untreated animal, but early and late phases still could be discerned. Second, beta-adrenergic receptor blockade produced by propranolol shortened the total duration of the cardiac output rise by abolishing the late phase. Third, when given together, propranolol and mecamylamine (or bretylium) prevented most of the cardiac output rise that follows the early phase. When cyanide was given to splenectomized dogs, the duration of the cardiac output response was not shortened, but the response became biphasic, resembling that seen after chemical sympathectomy. A similar biphasic response of the cardiac output also resulted from splenic denervation; sham operation or nephrectomy had no effect on the monophasic pattern of the normal response. Splenic venous blood obtained from cyanide-treated dogs, when infused intraportally, caused an increase in cardiac output in recipient dogs; similar infusion of arterial blood had no effects. These results suggest that the cardiac output response to cyanide infusion consists of three components: an early phase, related neither to the autonomic nervous system nor to circulating catecholamines; a middle phase, caused by a nonadrenergic humoral substance released from the spleen by sympathetic stimulation; and a late phase, dependent upon adrenergic receptors but not upon sympathetic transmission. PMID:4750445

Atmospheric Gravitational Torque Variations Based on Various Gravity Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sanchez, Braulio V.; Rowlands, David; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Advancements in the study of the Earth's variable rate of rotation and the motion of its rotation axis have given impetus to the analysis of the torques between the atmosphere, oceans and solid Earth. The output from global general circulation models of the atmosphere (pressure, surface stress) is being used as input to the torque computations. Gravitational torque between the atmosphere, oceans and solid Earth is an important component of the torque budget. Computation of the gravitational torque involves the adoption of a gravitational model from a wide variety available. The purpose of this investigation is to ascertain to what extent this choice might influence the results of gravitational torque computations.

Modelling of a Convecting, Crystallizing, and Replenished Diopside-Anorthite Axial Magma Chamber beneath Mid Ocean Ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowell, R. P.; Lata, C.

2016-12-01

The aim of this work is to model heat output from a cooling, convective, crystallizing, and replenished basaltic magma sill, representing an axial magma lens (AML) at mid oceanic ridges. As a simplified version of basaltic melt, we have assumed the melt to be a two-component eutectic system composed of diopside and anorthite. Convective vigor is expressed through the Rayleigh number and heat flux is scaled through a classical relationship between the Rayleigh number and Nusselt number, where the temperature difference driving the convective heat flux is derived from a "viscous" temperature scale reflecting the strong temperature dependent viscosity of the system. Viscosity is modeled as a function of melt composition and temperature using the Tammann-Vogel-Fulcher equation, with parameters fit to the values of observed viscosities along the diopside-anorthite liquidus. It was observed for the un-replenished case, in which crystals fall rapidly to the floor of the AML, model results show that the higher initial concentration of diopside, the more vigorous the convection and the faster the rate of crystallization and decay of heat output. Replenishment of the AML accompanied by modest thickening of the melt layer stabilizes the heat output at values similar to those observed at ridge-axis hydrothermal systems. This study is an important step forward in quantitative understanding of thermal evolution of the axial magma lens at a mid-ocean ridge and the corresponding effect on high-temperature hydrothermal systems. Future work could involve improved replenishment mechanisms, more complex melts, and direct coupling with hydrothermal circulation models.

A Method of Relating General Circulation Model Simulated Climate to the Observed Local Climate. Part I: Seasonal Statistics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, Thomas R.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Knight, Richard W.; Portman, David

1990-10-01

Important surface observations such as the daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and cloud ceilings often have localized characteristics that are difficult to reproduce with the current resolution and the physical parameterizations in state-of-the-art General Circulation climate Models (GCMs). Many of the difficulties can be partially attributed to mismatches in scale, local topography. regional geography and boundary conditions between models and surface-based observations. Here, we present a method, called climatological projection by model statistics (CPMS), to relate GCM grid-point flee-atmosphere statistics, the predictors, to these important local surface observations. The method can be viewed as a generalization of the model output statistics (MOS) and perfect prog (PP) procedures used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. It consists of the application of three statistical methods: 1) principle component analysis (FICA), 2) canonical correlation, and 3) inflated regression analysis. The PCA reduces the redundancy of the predictors The canonical correlation is used to develop simultaneous relationships between linear combinations of the predictors, the canonical variables, and the surface-based observations. Finally, inflated regression is used to relate the important canonical variables to each of the surface-based observed variables.We demonstrate that even an early version of the Oregon State University two-level atmospheric GCM (with prescribed sea surface temperature) produces free-atmosphere statistics than can, when standardized using the model's internal means and variances (the MOS-like version of CPMS), closely approximate the observed local climate. When the model data are standardized by the observed free-atmosphere means and variances (the PP version of CPMS), however, the model does not reproduce the observed surface climate as well. Our results indicate that in the MOS-like version of CPMS the differences between the output of a ten-year GCM control run and the surface-based observations are often smaller than the differences between the observations of two ten-year periods. Such positive results suggest that GCMs may already contain important climatological information that can be used to infer the local climate.

Influence of climate on landscape characteristics in safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes.

PubMed

Becker, J K; Lindborg, T; Thorne, M C

2014-12-01

In safety assessments of repositories for radioactive wastes, large spatial and temporal scales have to be considered when developing an approach to risk calculations. A wide range of different types of information may be required. Local to the site of interest, temperature and precipitation data may be used to determine the erosional regime (which may also be conditioned by the vegetation characteristics adopted, based both on climatic and other considerations). However, geomorphological changes may be governed by regional rather than local considerations, e.g. alteration of river base levels, river capture and drainage network reorganisation, or the progression of an ice sheet or valley glacier across the site. The regional climate is in turn governed by the global climate. In this work, a commentary is presented on the types of climate models that can be used to develop projections of climate change for use in post-closure radiological impact assessments of geological repositories for radioactive wastes. These models include both Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity. The relevant outputs available from these models are identified and consideration is given to how these outputs may be used to inform projections of landscape development. Issues of spatial and temporal downscaling of climate model outputs to meet the requirements of local-scale landscape development modelling are also addressed. An example is given of how climate change and landscape development influence the radiological impact of radionuclides potentially released from the deep geological disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel that SKB (the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company) proposes to construct at Forsmark, Sweden. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and surface observations of arsenic dispersion from a large Cu-smelter in southwestern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Bing; Stein, Ariel F.; Castell, Nuria; de la Rosa, Jesus D.; Sanchez de la Campa, Ana M.; Gonzalez-Castanedo, Yolanda; Draxler, Roland R.

2012-03-01

Arsenic is a toxic element for human health. Consequently, a mean annual target level for arsenic at 6 ng m-3 in PM10 was established by the European Directive 2004/107/CE to take effect January 2013. Cu-smelters can contribute to one-third of total emissions of arsenic in the atmosphere. Surface observations taken near a large Cu-smelter in the city of Huelva (Spain) show hourly arsenic concentrations in the range of 0-20 ng m-3. The arsenic peaks of 20 ng m-3 are higher than values normally observed in urban areas around Europe by a factor of 10. The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model has been employed to predict arsenic emissions, transport, and dispersion from the Cu-smelter. The model utilized outputs from different meteorological models and variations in the model physics options to simulate the uncertainty in the dispersion of the arsenic plume. Modeling outputs from the physics ensemble for each meteorological model driving HYSPLIT show the same number of arsenic peaks. HYSPLIT coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) meteorological output predicted the right number of peaks for arsenic concentration at the observation site. The best results were obtained when the WRF simulation used both four-dimensional data assimilation and surface analysis nudging. The prediction was good in local sea breeze circulations or when the flow was dominated by the synoptic scale prevailing winds. However, the predicted peak was delayed when the transport and dispersion was under the influence of an Atlantic cyclone. The calculated concentration map suggests that the plume from the Cu-smelter can cause arsenic pollution events in the city of Huelva as well as other cities and tourist areas in southwestern Spain.

Palaeocirculation across New Zealand during the last glacial maximum at ˜21 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorrey, Andrew M.; Vandergoes, Marcus; Almond, Peter; Renwick, James; Stephens, Tom; Bostock, Helen; Mackintosh, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Williams, Paul W.; Ackerley, Duncan; Neil, Helen; Fowler, Anthony M.

2012-03-01

What circulation pattern drove Southern Alps glacial advances at ˜21 ka? Late 20th century glacial advances in New Zealand are commonly attributed to a dual precipitation increase and cooler than normal temperatures associated with enhanced westerly flow that occur under synoptic pressure patterns termed 'zonal' regimes (Kidson, 2000). But was the circulation pattern that supported major Southern Alps glacial advances during the global LGM similar to the modern analog? Here, a Regional Climate Regime Classification (RCRC) time slice was used to infer past circulation for New Zealand during the LGM at ˜21 ka. Palaeoclimate information that supported the construction of the ˜21 ka time slice was derived from the NZ-INTIMATE Climate Event Stratigraphy (CES), one new Auckland maar proxy record, and additional low-resolution data sourced from the literature. The terrestrial evidence at ˜21 ka implicates several possibilities for past circulation, depending on how interpretations for some proxies are made. The interpretation considered most tenable for the LGM, based on the agreement between terrestrial evidence, marine reconstructions and palaeoclimate model results is an 'anticyclonic/zonal' circulation regime characterized by increased influences from blocking 'highs' over the South Island during winter and an increase in zonal and trough synoptic types (with southerly to westerly quarter wind flow) during summer. These seasonal circulation traits would have generated lower mean annual temperatures, cooler than normal summer temperatures, and overall lower mean annual precipitation for New Zealand (particularly in the western South Island) at ˜21 ka. The anticyclonic/zonal time slice reconstruction presented in this study has different spatial traits than the late 20th Century and the early Little Ice Age signatures, suggesting more than one type of regional circulation pattern can drive Southern Alps glacial activity. This finding lends support to the hypothesis that temperature over precipitation change is more important as the primary modulator of Southern Alps ice advances. The RCRC approach also demonstrates some subtle advantages of integrating multi-proxy data within a palaeocirculation context for New Zealand, notably because this reconstruction technique enables direct comparisons to coarsely resolved palaeoclimate model outputs that do not have downscaled information.

Continuing Development of a Hybrid Model (VSH) of the Neutral Thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, Alan

1996-01-01

We propose to continue the development of a new operational model of neutral thermospheric density, composition, temperatures and winds to improve current engineering environment definitions of the neutral thermosphere. This model will be based on simulations made with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-Ionosphere- Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) and on empirical data. It will be capable of using real-time geophysical indices or data from ground-based and satellite inputs and provides neutral variables at specified locations and times. This "hybrid" model will be based on a Vector Spherical Harmonic (VSH) analysis technique developed (over the last 8 years) at the University of Michigan that permits the incorporation of the TIGCM outputs and data into the model. The VSH model will be a more accurate version of existing models of the neutral thermospheric, and will thus improve density specification for satellites flying in low Earth orbit (LEO).

Shelf Circulation Induced by an Orographic Wind Jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ràfols, Laura; Grifoll, Manel; Jordà, Gabriel; Espino, Manuel; Sairouní, Abdel; Bravo, Manel

2017-10-01

The dynamical response to cross-shelf wind-jet episodes is investigated. The study area is located at the northern margin of the Ebro Shelf, in the Northwestern (NW) Mediterranean Sea, where episodes of strong northwesterly wind occur. In this case, the wind is channeled through the Ebro Valley and intensifies upon reaching the sea, resulting in a wind jet. The wind-jet response in terms of water circulation and vertical density structure is investigated using a numerical model. The numerical outputs agree with water current observations from a high-frequency radar. Additionally, temperature, sea level, and wind measurements are also used for the skill assessment of the model. For the wind-jet episodes, the numerical results show a well-defined two-layer circulation in the cross-shelf direction, with the surface currents in the direction of the wind. This pattern is consistent with sea level set-down due to the wind effect. The comparison of the vertical structure response for different episodes revealed that the increase of stratification leads to an onshore displacement of the transition from inner shelf to mid-shelf. In general, the cross-shelf momentum balance during a wind-jet episode exhibits a balance between the frictional terms and the pressure gradient in shallow waters, shifting to a balance between the Coriolis force and the wind stress terms in deeper waters.

Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2011-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different numerics, algorithms, resolutions, physics models, and parameterizations. These simulations span the 20th century and provide forecasts for various carbon emissions scenarios in the 21st century. All the output from this panoply of models is made available to researchers on an archive maintained by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL. I have downloaded this data and completed the first steps toward a statisticalmore » analysis of these ensembles for the US Southwest. This constitutes the final report for a late start LDRD project. Complete analysis will be the subject of a forthcoming report.« less

Oceanographic and atmospheric conditions on the continental shelf north of the Monterey Bay during August 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramp, Steven R.; Lermusiaux, Pierre F. J.; Shulman, Igor; Chao, Yi; Wolf, Rebecca E.; Bahr, Frederick L.

2011-09-01

A comprehensive data set from the ocean and atmosphere was obtained just north of the Monterey Bay as part of the Monterey Bay 2006 (MB06) field experiment. The wind stress, heat fluxes, and sea surface temperature were sampled by the Naval Postgraduate School's TWIN OTTER research aircraft. In situ data were collected using ships, moorings, gliders and AUVs. Four data-assimilating numerical models were additionally run, including the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS ®) model for the atmosphere and the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), and the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) for the ocean. The scientific focus of the Adaptive Sampling and Prediction Experiment (ASAP) was on the upwelling/relaxation cycle and the resulting three-dimensional coastal circulation near a coastal promontory, in this case Point Año Nuevo, CA. The emphasis of this study is on the circulation over the continental shelf as estimated from the wind forcing, two ADCP moorings, and model outputs. The wind stress during August 2006 consisted of 3-10 day upwelling favorable events separated by brief 1-3 day relaxations. During the first two weeks there was some correlation between local winds and currents and the three models' capability to reproduce the events. During the last two weeks, largely equatorward surface wind stress forced the sea surface and barotropic poleward flow occurred over the shelf, reducing model skill at predicting the circulation. The poleward flow was apparently remotely forced by mesoscale eddies and alongshore pressure gradients, which were not well simulated by the models. The small, high-resolution model domains were highly reliant on correct open boundary conditions to drive these larger-scale poleward flows. Multiply-nested models were no more effective than well-initialized local models in this respect.

The Errors Sources Affect to the Results of One-Way Nested Ocean Regional Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, S. V.

2016-02-01

Pham-Van Sy1, Jin Hwan Hwang2 and Hyeyun Ku3 Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, KoreaEmail: 1phamsymt@gmail.com (Corresponding author) Email: 2jinhwang@snu.ac.krEmail: 3hyeyun.ku@gmail.comAbstractThe Oceanic Regional Circulation Model (ORCM) is an essential tool in resolving highly a regional scale through downscaling dynamically the results from the roughly revolved global model. However, when dynamic downscaling from a coarse resolution of the global model or observations to the small scale, errors are generated due to the different sizes of resolution and lateral updating frequency. This research evaluated the effect of four main sources on the results of the ocean regional circulation model (ORCMs) during downscaling and nesting the output data from the ocean global circulation model (OGCMs). Representative four error sources should be the way of the LBC formulation, the spatial resolution difference between driving and driven data, the frequency for up-dating LBCs and domain size. Errors which are contributed from each error source to the results of the ORCMs are investigated separately by applying the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE). Within resolution of 3km grid point of the ORCMs imposing in the BBE framework, it clearly exposes that the simulation results of the ORCMs significantly depend on the domain size and specially the spatial and temporal resolution of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). The ratio resolution of spatial resolution between driving data and driven model could be up to 3, the updating frequency of the LBCs can be up to every 6 hours per day. The optimal domain size of the ORCMs could be smaller than the OGCMs' domain size around 2 to 10 times. Key words: ORCMs, error source, lateral boundary conditions, domain size Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled as "Developing total management system for the Keum river estuary and coast" and "Development of Technology for CO2 Marine Geological Storage". We also thank to the administrative supports of the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of the Seoul National University.

Atmosphere-Ocean Variations in the Indo-Pacific Sector during ENSO Episodes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Nath, Mary Jo

2003-01-01

The influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on air-sea interaction in the Indian-western Pacific (IWP) Oceans have been investigated using a general circulation model. Observed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the deep tropical eastern/central Pacific (DTEP) have been inserted in the lower boundary of this model through the 1950-99 period. At all maritime grid points outside of DTEP, the model atmosphere has been coupled with an oceanic mixed layer model with variable depth. Altogether 16 independent model runs have been conducted.Composite analysis of selected ENSO episodes illustrates that the prescribed SST anomalies in DTEP affect the surface atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns in IWP through displacements of the near-equatorial Walker circulation and generation of Rossby wave modes in the subtropics. Such atmospheric responses modulate the surface fluxes as well as the oceanic mixed layer depth, and thereby establish a well-defined SST anomaly pattern in the IWP sector several months after the peak in ENSO forcing in DTEP. In most parts of the IWP region, the net SST tendency induced by atmospheric changes has the same polarity as the local composite SST anomaly, thus indicating that the atmospheric forcing acts to reinforce the underlying SST signal.By analyzing the output from a suite of auxiliary experiments, it is demonstrated that the SST perturbations in IWP (which are primarily generated by ENSO-related atmospheric changes) can, in turn, exert notable influences on the atmospheric conditions over that region. This feedback mechanism also plays an important role in the eastward migration of the subtropical anticyclones over the western Pacific in both hemispheres.

Links Between the Deep Western Boundary Current, Labrador Sea Water Formation and Export, and the Meridional Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Paul G.; Kulan, Nilgun

2010-05-01

Based on an isopyncal analysis of historical data, 3-year overlapping triad fields of objectively analysed temperature and salinity are produced for the Labrador Sea, covering 1949-1999. These fields are then used to spectrally nudge an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model of the sub-polar gyre, otherwise forced by inter annually varying surface forcing based upon the Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment (CORE). High frequency output from the reanalysis is used to examine Labrador Sea Water formation and its export. A number of different apprpoaches are used to estimate Labrador Sea Water formation, including an instanteous kinematic approach to calculate the annual rate of water mass subduction at a given density range. Historical transports are computed along sections at 53 and 56N for several different water masses for comparison with recent observations, showing a decline in the stength of the deep western boundary current with time. The variability of the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) from the reanalysis is also examined in both depth and density space. Linkages between MOC variability and water mass formation variability is considered.

Enhanced Actuator Line Simulation of a Wind Turbine by including the Conservative Load at the Blade Tip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herraez, Ivan; Micallef, Daniel; van Kuik, Gijs A. M.; Peinke, Joachim

2015-11-01

At the tip of wind turbine blades, the radial bound circulation is transformed into chordwise circulation just before being released as trailing vorticity, giving rise to the tip vortex. The force acting on the chordwise circulation contains a radial and a normal component with respect to the blade axis. This load does not contribute to the torque, so it is a conservative load. Due to this, it is disregarded in the engineering tools used for the design of wind turbines. However, as we demonstrated in a previous work, the conservative load might influence the trajectory of the tip vortex. In order to see how this affects the blade loads, in this research we perform large eddy simulations with an actuator line model where the conservative load has been included. The conservative load reduces the angle of attack in the tip region as a consequence of the modified tip vortex trajectory. This has a negative influence on the lift and the power output. We conclude that the accuracy of engineering design tools of wind turbines can be improved if the conservative load acting at the tip is considered.

The Sterilization Effect of Cooperative Treatment of High Voltage Electrostatic Field and Variable Frequency Pulsed Electromagnetic Field on Heterotrophic Bacteria in Circulating Cooling Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xuetong; Liu, Zhian; Zhao, Judong

2018-01-01

Compared to other treatment of industrial circulating cooling water in the field of industrial water treatment, high-voltage electrostatic field and variable frequency pulsed electromagnetic field co-sterilization technology, an advanced technology, is widely used because of its special characteristics--low energy consumption, nonpoisonous and environmentally friendly. In order to get a better cooling water sterilization effect under the premise of not polluting the environment, some experiments about sterilization of heterotrophic bacteria in industrial circulating cooling water by cooperative treatment of high voltage electrostatic field and variable frequency pulsed electromagnetic field were carried out. The comparison experiment on the sterilization effect of high-voltage electrostatic field and variable frequency pulsed electromagnetic field co-sterilization on heterotrophic bacteria in industrial circulating cooling water was carried out by change electric field strength and pulse frequency. The results show that the bactericidal rate is selective to the frequency and output voltage, and the heterotrophic bacterium can only kill under the condition of sweep frequency range and output voltage. When the voltage of the high voltage power supply is 4000V, the pulse frequency is 1000Hz and the water temperature is 30°C, the sterilization rate is 48.7%, the sterilization rate is over 90%. Results of this study have important guiding significance for future application of magnetic field sterilization.

Aerosol specification in single-column Community Atmosphere Model version 5

DOE PAGES

Lebassi-Habtezion, B.; Caldwell, P. M.

2015-03-27

Single-column model (SCM) capability is an important tool for general circulation model development. In this study, the SCM mode of version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) is shown to handle aerosol initialization and advection improperly, resulting in aerosol, cloud-droplet, and ice crystal concentrations which are typically much lower than observed or simulated by CAM5 in global mode. This deficiency has a major impact on stratiform cloud simulations but has little impact on convective case studies because aerosol is currently not used by CAM5 convective schemes and convective cases are typically longer in duration (so initialization is less important).more » By imposing fixed aerosol or cloud-droplet and crystal number concentrations, the aerosol issues described above can be avoided. Sensitivity studies using these idealizations suggest that the Meyers et al. (1992) ice nucleation scheme prevents mixed-phase cloud from existing by producing too many ice crystals. Microphysics is shown to strongly deplete cloud water in stratiform cases, indicating problems with sequential splitting in CAM5 and the need for careful interpretation of output from sequentially split climate models. Droplet concentration in the general circulation model (GCM) version of CAM5 is also shown to be far too low (~ 25 cm −3) at the southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site.« less

A new dynamical downscaling approach with GCM bias corrections and spectral nudging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhongfeng; Yang, Zong-Liang

2015-04-01

To improve confidence in regional projections of future climate, a new dynamical downscaling (NDD) approach with both general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections and spectral nudging is developed and assessed over North America. GCM biases are corrected by adjusting GCM climatological means and variances based on reanalysis data before the GCM output is used to drive a regional climate model (RCM). Spectral nudging is also applied to constrain RCM-based biases. Three sets of RCM experiments are integrated over a 31 year period. In the first set of experiments, the model configurations are identical except that the initial and lateral boundary conditions are derived from either the original GCM output, the bias-corrected GCM output, or the reanalysis data. The second set of experiments is the same as the first set except spectral nudging is applied. The third set of experiments includes two sensitivity runs with both GCM bias corrections and nudging where the nudging strength is progressively reduced. All RCM simulations are assessed against North American Regional Reanalysis. The results show that NDD significantly improves the downscaled mean climate and climate variability relative to other GCM-driven RCM downscaling approach in terms of climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vectors, and surface air temperature variability. In the NDD approach, spectral nudging introduces the effects of GCM bias corrections throughout the RCM domain rather than just limiting them to the initial and lateral boundary conditions, thereby minimizing climate drifts resulting from both the GCM and RCM biases.

Extreme heat event projections for a coastal megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, L. E.; Gonzalez, J.

2017-12-01

As summers become warmer, extreme heat events are expected to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. Large urban centers may affect these projections by introducing feedbacks between the atmosphere and the built environment through processes involving anthropogenic heat, wind modification, radiation blocking, and others. General circulation models are often run with spatial resolutions in the order of 100 km, limiting their skill at resolving local scale processes and highly spatially varying features such as cities' heterogeneous landscape and mountain topography. This study employs climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with a modified multi-layer urban canopy and building energy model to downscale CESM1 at 1 km horizontal resolution across three time slices (2006-2010, 2075-2079, and 2095-2099) and two projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). New York City Metropolitan area, with a population of over 20 million and a complex urban canopy, is used as a case study. The urban canopy model of WRF was modified to include a drag coefficient as a function of the building plant area fraction and the introduction of evaporative cooling systems at building roofs to reject the anthropogenic heat from the buildings, with urban canopy parameters computed from the New York City Property Land-Use Tax-lot Output (PLUTO). Model performance is evaluated against the input model and historical records from airport stations, showing improvement in the statistical characteristics in the downscaled model output. Projection results are presented as spatially distributed anomalies in heat wave frequency, duration, and maximum intensity from the 2006-2010 benchmark period. Results show that local sea-breeze circulations mitigate heat wave impacts, following a positive gradient with increasing distance from the coastline. However, end of century RCP 8.5 projections show the possibility of reversal of this pattern, sea surface temperatures increase and reduce the sea-land temperature gradient, thus reducing the sea-breeze magnitude. Impacts to human health and buildings energy demand are explored for future climate scenarios as key examples of anticipated societal consequences.

Numerical simulation of the river and urban discharges into the Sea: Application to the Catalan Coast.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liste, M.; Grifoll, M.; Keupers, I.; Monbaliu, J.

2012-04-01

Introduction The coastal oceans are the recipient of freshwater and land/drained materials that are primarily brought in through river and urban discharge [Kourafalou et al., 1996]. Freshwater discharge from rivers and urban outflows to the ocean water has profound effects on the physical, chemical, and biological processes in coastal waters. It induces circulation patterns and modifies mixing processes [Milliman and Farnsworth, 2011]. Due to their ecological and dynamical importance, a good understanding of the mixing and transport processes in river plumes is required for the maintenance of coastal ecosystems and their resources. In this paper will discuss the results of the land boundary fluxes implementation into the coastal circulation model. As a demonstration part of the Catalan coast has been chosen. The combination of local topography with torrential rainfall can produce considerable local runoff on a short time with a large impact on the receiving coastal waters. Methodology and aim For the coastal circulation model, version 3.0 of the Regional Ocean Modeling System [ROMS, Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005] has been implemented for small portion of the Catalan coast. ROMS uses sigma coordinates and solves the 3-D Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The code design is modular, so that different choices for advection and mixing, for example, may be applied by simply modifying preprocessor flags. Nested increasing-resolution models have been implemented in order to reproduce with enough resolution the coastal circulation and the river plume evolution. The boundary conditions are obtained from the MyOcean products. River and urban run-off are estimated based on rainfall (predictions) form the contributing catchments areas. Conceptual models based on a reservoir-type schematization of the river and sewer network have been set up to allow the fast prediction of the different point source boundary conditions [Keupers et al., 2011]. Model output for selected events will be compared to data from dedicated campaigns during the Field_AC Project and to data from operational buoys in the Catalan coastal area.

Efficacy of a new intraaortic propeller pump vs the intraaortic balloon pump: an animal study.

PubMed

Dekker, André; Reesink, Koen; van der Veen, Erik; Van Ommen, Vincent; Geskes, Gijs; Soemers, Cecile; Maessen, Jos

2003-06-01

To compare the efficacy of a new intraaortic propeller pump (PP) to provide hemodynamic support to the intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) in an acute mitral regurgitation (MR) animal model. A new intraaortic PP (Reitan catheter pump; Jomed; Helsingborg, Sweden) recently has been introduced. The pump's aim is a reduction in afterload via a deployable propeller that is placed in the high descending aorta and can be set at rotational speeds of

[The Contribution of Vascular Capacity and Blood Volume to Maintain Stable Blood Circulation during General Anesthesia].

PubMed

Shigemi, Kenji

2016-05-01

To maintain proper cardiac preload is one of the most effective procedures for the systemic circulation remaining stable. In particular, the balance between vascular capacity and total blood volume must be maintained within appropriate range by the administration of fluids, blood and/or vasoactive drugs with mean circulatory filling pressure (Pmcf), central venous pressure (CVP) or stroke volume variation (SVV). End-diastolic left ventricular volume (Ved) is theoretically the best index of cardiac preload; however, without transesophageal echocardbalanceiogram we cannot directly monitor Ved during anesthesia. The infused fluid volume remaining in intravascular space, the vascular capacity controlled by autonomic nervous system and/or vasoactive agents, and the unstressed blood volume properly mobilized to excess blood volume are the crucial factors to maintain cardiac output The knowledge of vascular physiology contribute the decision making to manipulate such factors to control blood circulation during general anesthesia. For example, CVP is usually maintained in the narrow range and seems to be stable; however, it must be changed just after the circulatory disturbances, such as acute bleeding, blood transfusion, and fluid infusion, and followed by gradual returning to initial value, because of the solid mechanism to preserve cardiac output

Can We Use Single-Column Models for Understanding the Boundary Layer Cloud-Climate Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dal Gesso, S.; Neggers, R. A. J.

2018-02-01

This study explores how to drive Single-Column Models (SCMs) with existing data sets of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs, with the aim of studying the boundary layer cloud response to climate change in the marine subtropical trade wind regime. The EC-EARTH SCM is driven with the large-scale tendencies and boundary conditions as derived from two different data sets, consisting of high-frequency outputs of GCM simulations. SCM simulations are performed near Barbados Cloud Observatory in the dry season (January-April), when fair-weather cumulus is the dominant low-cloud regime. This climate regime is characterized by a near equilibrium in the free troposphere between the long-wave radiative cooling and the large-scale advection of warm air. In the SCM, this equilibrium is ensured by scaling the monthly mean dynamical tendency of temperature and humidity such that it balances that of the model physics in the free troposphere. In this setup, the high-frequency variability in the forcing is maintained, and the boundary layer physics acts freely. This technique yields representative cloud amount and structure in the SCM for the current climate. Furthermore, the cloud response to a sea surface warming of 4 K as produced by the SCM is consistent with that of the forcing GCM.

Assessment of regional climate change and development of climate adaptation decision aids in the Southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmenova, K.; Higgins, G.; Kiley, H.; Apling, D.

2010-12-01

Current General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide a valuable estimate of both natural and anthropogenic climate changes and variability on global scales. At the same time, future climate projections calculated with GCMs are not of sufficient spatial resolution to address regional needs. Many climate impact models require information at scales of 50 km or less, so dynamical downscaling is often used to estimate the smaller-scale information based on larger scale GCM output. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and developing decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather and heating/cooling degree days based on WRF ensemble runs initialized with the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the European Center/Hamburg Model (ECHAM5). Results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans. In addition we evaluated the WRF performance in long-term climate simulations over the Southwestern US and validated against observational datasets.

Electrostimulation of muscles as a method for the treatment and prophylaxis of hemodynamic disturbances during prolonged hypokinesia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dukhin, Y. O.; Zhukovskyy, L. Y.

1980-01-01

Hemodynamic and periopheral circulation indexes were recorded before, at the end of, and 5 days after 10 days of electrostimulation for 45 min daily, at rest and after a physical loading test. It was found that stroke and minute volume, cardiac output, and regional circulation improved and heart rate and peripheral resistance decreased. The functional state of the cardiac muscle and vascular tone are improved by electrostimulation of selected groups of skeletal muscles.

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

2015-01-01

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

Operational seasonal and interannual predictions of ocean conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leetmaa, Ants

1992-01-01

Dr. Leetmaa described current work at the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) on coupled systems leading to a seasonal prediction system. He described the way in which ocean thermal data is quality controlled and used in a four dimensional data assimilation system. This consists of a statistical interpolation scheme, a primitive equation ocean general circulation model, and the atmospheric fluxes that are required to force this. This whole process generated dynamically consist thermohaline and velocity fields for the ocean. Currently routine weekly analyses are performed for the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. These analyses are used for ocean climate diagnostics and as initial conditions for coupled forecast models. Specific examples of output products were shown both in the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean.

Solar Cycle/Seasonal Variations of H, D, H2 and He Distributions and Escape on Mars as Determined by the Mars Thermosphere Global Circulation Model (MTGCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougher, Stephen

2005-01-01

The Mars Thermosphere General Circulation Model (MTGCM) was exercised for Ls = 90 (aphelion) solar minimum, and Ls = 270 perihelion) solar maximum conditions. Simulated MTGCM outputs (i.e. helium density distributions) were compared to those previously observed for Earth and Venus. Winter polar night bulges of helium are predicted on Mars, similar to those observed on the nightside of Venus and in the winter polar regions of Earth. A poster on this research was presented at the European Geophysical Society Meeting (EGS) in 2003. This research paves the way for what might be expected in the polar night regions of Mars during upcoming aerobraking and mapping Campaigns. Lastly, Mars thermosphere (approx. 100-130 km) winter polar warming was observed at high Northern latitudes during the perihelion season, but not at high Southern latitudes during the opposite aphelion season. Presumably, the Mars thermospheric circulation is responsible for the dynamically controlled heating needed to warm polar night temperatures above radiative equilibrium values. Again, MTGCM simulations were conducted for Ls = 90 and Ls = 270 conditions; polar temperatures were examined and found to be much warmer at Northern high latitudes (perihelion) than at Southern high latitudes (aphelion), similar to Mars aerobraking datasets. The Mars thermospheric circulation is found to be stronger during perihelion solstice conditions than during aphelion conditions, owing to both stronger seasonal solar and dust heating during Mars perihelion. An invited talk was given at the Spring AGU 2004 on this research. A forthcoming GRL paper was drafted on this same topic, but not submitted before the termination of this 1-year grant.

Long-Term Heating to Improve Receiver Performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glatzmaier, Greg C.; Cable, Robert; Newmarker, Marc

The buildup of hydrogen in the heat transfer fluid (HTF) that circulates through components of parabolic trough power plants decreases receiver thermal efficiency, and ultimately, it decreases plant performance and electricity output. The generation and occurrence of hydrogen in the HTF provides the driving force for hydrogen to permeate from the HTF through the absorber tube wall and into the receiver annulus. Getters adsorb hydrogen from the annulus volume until they saturate and are no longer able to maintain low hydrogen pressure. The increase in hydrogen pressure within the annulus significantly degrades thermal performance of the receiver and decreases overallmore » power-plant efficiency. NREL and Acciona Energy North America (Acciona) are developing a method to control the levels of dissolved hydrogen in the circulating HTF. The basic approach is to remove hydrogen from the expansion tanks of the HTF subsystem at a rate that maintains hydrogen in the circulating HTF to a target level. Full-plant steady-state models developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) predict that if hydrogen is removed from the HTF within the expansion tanks, the HTF that circulates through the collector field remains essentially free of hydrogen until the HTF returns to the power block in the hot headers. One of the key findings of our modeling is the prediction that hydrogen will reverse-permeate out of the receiver annulus if dissolved hydrogen in the HTF is kept sufficiently low. To test this prediction, we performed extended heating of an in-service receiver that initially had high levels of hydrogen in its annulus. The heating was performed using NREL's receiver test stand. Results of our testing showed that receiver heat loss steadily decreased with daily heating, resulting in a corresponding improvement in receiver thermal efficiency.« less

Modeling of submarine melting in Petermann Fjord, Northwestern Greenland using an ocean general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, C.; Rignot, E. J.; Xu, Y.; An, L.

2013-12-01

Basal melting of the floating tongue of Petermann Glacier, in northwestern Greenland is by far the largest process of mass ablation. Melting of the floating tongue is controlled by the buoyancy of the melt water plume, the pressure-dependence of the melting point of sea ice, and the mixing of warm subsurface water with fresh buoyant subglacial discharge. In prior simulations of this melting process, the role of subglacial discharge has been neglected because in similar configurations (floating ice shelves) in the Antarctic, surface runoff is negligible; this is however not true in Greenland. Here, we use the Mass Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a high spatial resolution (10 m x 10 m) to simulate the melting process of the ice shelf in 2-D. the model is constrained by ice shelf bathymetry and ice thickness from NASA Operation IceBridge, ocean temperature/salinity data from Johnson et al. (2011), and subglacial discharge estimated from output products of the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO). We compare the results obtained in winter (no runoff) with summer, and the sensitivity of the results to thermal forcing from the ocean, and to the magnitude of subglacial runoff. We conclude on the impact of the ocean and surface melting on the melting regime of the floating ice tongue of Petermann. This work is performed under a contract with NASA Cryosphere Program.

Ice-Shelf Melt Response to Changing Winds and Glacier Dynamics in the Amundsen Sea Sector, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat-Magnin, Marion; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Spence, Paul; Le Sommer, Julien; Gallée, Hubert; Durand, Gaël.

2017-12-01

It has been suggested that the coastal Southern Ocean subsurface may warm over the 21st century in response to strengthening and poleward shifting winds, with potential adverse effects on West Antarctic glaciers. However, using a 1/12° ocean regional model that includes ice-shelf cavities, we find a more complex response to changing winds in the Amundsen Sea. Simulated offshore subsurface waters get colder under strengthened and poleward shifted winds representative of the SAM projected trend. The buoyancy-driven circulation induced by ice-shelf melt transports this cold offshore anomaly onto the continental shelf, leading to cooling and decreased melt below 450 m. In the vicinity of ice-shelf fronts, Ekman pumping contributes to raise the isotherms in response to changing winds. This effect overwhelms the horizontal transport of colder offshore waters at intermediate depths (between 200 and 450 m), and therefore increases melt rates in the upper part of the ice-shelf cavities, which reinforces the buoyancy-driven circulation and further contributes to raise the isotherms. Then, prescribing an extreme grounding line retreat projected for 2100, the total melt rates simulated underneath Thwaites and Pine Island are multiplied by 2.5. Such increase is explained by a larger ocean/ice interface exposed to CDW, which is then amplified by a stronger melt-induced circulation along the ice draft. Our main conclusions are that (1) outputs from ocean models that do not represent ice shelf cavities (e.g., CMIP5 models) should not be directly used to predict the thermal forcing of future ice shelf cavities; (2) coupled ocean/ice sheet models with a velocity-dependent melt formulation are needed for future projections of glaciers experiencing a significant grounding line retreat.

The 20 GHz spacecraft IMPATT solid state transmitter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Best, T.; Ngan, Y. C.

1986-01-01

The engineering development of a solid-state transmitter amplifier operating in the 20-GHz frequency range is described. This effort involved a multitude of disciplines including IMPATT device development, circulator design, multiple-diode circuit design, and amplifier integration and test. The objective was to develop a transmitter amplifier demonstrating the feasibility of providing an efficient, reliable, lightweight solid-state transmitter to be flown on a 30 to 20 GHz communication demonstration satellite. The work was done under contract from NASA/Lewis Research Center for a period of three years. The result was the development of a GaAs IMPACT diode amplifier capable of an 11-W CW output power and a 2-dB bandwidth of 300 MHz. GaAs IMPATT diodes incorporating diamond heatsink and double-Read doping profile capable of 5.3-W CW oscillator output power and 15.5% efficiency were developed. Up to 19% efficiency was also observed for an output power level of 4.4 W. High performance circulators with a 0.2 dB inserting loss and bandwidth of 5 GHz have also been developed. These represent a significant advance in both device and power combiner circuit technologies in K-band frequencies.

A reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea.

PubMed

Zeng, Xuezhi; Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Zhijin; Qi, Yiquan; Chen, Rongyu

2014-01-01

Ocean reanalysis provides a temporally continuous and spatially gridded four-dimensional estimate of the ocean state for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and its spatial/temporal variability. Here we present a 19-year (1992-2010) high-resolution ocean reanalysis dataset of the upper ocean in the South China Sea (SCS) produced from an ocean data assimilation system. A wide variety of observations, including in-situ temperature/salinity profiles, ship-measured and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimetry, are assimilated into the outputs of an ocean general circulation model using a multi-scale incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, yielding a daily high-resolution reanalysis dataset of the SCS. Comparisons between the reanalysis and independent observations support the reliability of the dataset. The presented dataset provides the research community of the SCS an important data source for studying the thermodynamic processes of the ocean circulation and meso-scale features in the SCS, including their spatial and temporal variability.

Carrier fluid temperature data in vertical ground heat exchangers with a varying pipe separation.

PubMed

Makasis, Nikolas; Narsilio, Guillermo A; Bidarmaghz, Asal; Johnston, Ian W

2018-06-01

The dataset in this article is related to shallow geothermal energy systems, which efficiently provide renewable heating and cooling to buildings, and specifically to the performance of the vertical ground heat exchangers (GHE) embedded in the ground. GHEs incorporate pipes with a circulating (carrier) fluid, exchanging heat between the ground and the building. The data show the average and inlet temperatures of the carrier fluid circulating in the pipes embedded in the GHEs (which directly relate to the performance of these systems). These temperatures were generated using detailed finite element modelling and comprise part of the daily output of various one-year simulations, accounting for numerous design parameters (including different pipe geometries) and ground conditions. An expanded explanation of the data as well as comprehensive analyses on how they were used can be found in the article titled "Ground-source heat pump systems: the effect of variable pipe separation in ground heat exchangers" (Makasis N, Narsilio GA, Bidarmaghz A, Johnston IW, 2018) [1].

A reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea

PubMed Central

Zeng, Xuezhi; Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Zhijin; Qi, Yiquan; Chen, Rongyu

2014-01-01

Ocean reanalysis provides a temporally continuous and spatially gridded four-dimensional estimate of the ocean state for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and its spatial/temporal variability. Here we present a 19-year (1992–2010) high-resolution ocean reanalysis dataset of the upper ocean in the South China Sea (SCS) produced from an ocean data assimilation system. A wide variety of observations, including in-situ temperature/salinity profiles, ship-measured and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimetry, are assimilated into the outputs of an ocean general circulation model using a multi-scale incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, yielding a daily high-resolution reanalysis dataset of the SCS. Comparisons between the reanalysis and independent observations support the reliability of the dataset. The presented dataset provides the research community of the SCS an important data source for studying the thermodynamic processes of the ocean circulation and meso-scale features in the SCS, including their spatial and temporal variability. PMID:25977803

Artificial blood circulation: stabilization, physiological control, and optimization.

PubMed

Lerner, A Y

1990-04-01

The requirements for creating an efficient Artificial Blood Circulation System (ABCS) have been determined. A hierarchical three-level adaptive control system is suggested for ABCS to solve the following problems: stabilization of the circulation conditions, left and right pump coordination, physiological control for maintaining a proper relation between the cardiac output and the level of gas exchange required for metabolism, and optimization of the system behavior. The adaptations to varying load and body parameters will be accomplished using the signals which characterize the real-time computer-processed values of correlations between the changes in hydraulic resistance of blood vessels, or the changes in aortic pressure, and the oxygen (or carbon dioxide) concentration.

Thundercloud electrification models in atmospheric electricity and meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, L. W.

1980-01-01

A survey is presented of presently-available theoretical models. The models are classified into three main groups: (1) convection models, (2) precipitation models, and (3) general models. The strengths and weaknesses of the models, their dimensionalities and degrees of sophistication, the nature of their inputs and outputs, and the various specific charging mechanisms treated by them, are considered. In results obtained to date, the convection models predict no significant electrification enhancement based on conductivity gradients and convection alone, with the assumed air circulation patterns. Results of the precipitation models show that the initial electrification can occur rapidly and stably through noninductive collision mechanisms involving ice, and breakdown-strength electric fields can relatively easily be achieved subsequently through the collisional-inductive mechanism. A critical difficulty of the collision mechanisms is imprecise knowledge of relaxation times versus contact times, which can easily lead to overestimates of electrification. The general model results tend to support those of the precipitation models in emphasizing the high potential effectiveness of the collisional-inductive mechanism.

Scram signal generator

DOEpatents

Johanson, Edward W.; Simms, Richard

1981-01-01

A scram signal generating circuit for nuclear reactor installations monitors a flow signal representing the flow rate of the liquid sodium coolant which is circulated through the reactor, and initiates reactor shutdown for a rapid variation in the flow signal, indicative of fuel motion. The scram signal generating circuit includes a long-term drift compensation circuit which processes the flow signal and generates an output signal representing the flow rate of the coolant. The output signal remains substantially unchanged for small variations in the flow signal, attributable to long term drift in the flow rate, but a rapid change in the flow signal, indicative of a fast flow variation, causes a corresponding change in the output signal. A comparator circuit compares the output signal with a reference signal, representing a given percentage of the steady state flow rate of the coolant, and generates a scram signal to initiate reactor shutdown when the output signal equals the reference signal.

Scram signal generator

DOEpatents

Johanson, E.W.; Simms, R.

A scram signal generating circuit for nuclear reactor installations monitors a flow signal representing the flow rate of the liquid sodium coolant which is circulated through the reactor, and initiates reactor shutdown for a rapid variation in the flow signal, indicative of fuel motion. The scram signal generating circuit includes a long-term drift compensation circuit which processes the flow signal and generates an output signal representing the flow rate of the coolant. The output signal remains substantially unchanged for small variations in the flow signal, attributable to long term drift in the flow rate, but a rapid change in the flow signal, indicative of a fast flow variation, causes a corresponding change in the output signal. A comparator circuit compares the output signal with a reference signal, representing a given percentage of the steady state flow rate of the coolant, and generates a scram signal to initiate reactor shutdown when the output signal equals the reference signal.

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation covaries with Agulhas leakage

PubMed Central

Biastoch, Arne; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Morrison, Adele K.; van Sebille, Erik; Weijer, Wilbert; Griffies, Stephen M.

2015-01-01

The interoceanic transfer of seawater between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic, ‘Agulhas leakage', forms a choke point for the overturning circulation in the global ocean. Here, by combining output from a series of high-resolution ocean and climate models with in situ and satellite observations, we construct a time series of Agulhas leakage for the period 1870–2014. The time series demonstrates the impact of Southern Hemisphere westerlies on decadal timescales. Agulhas leakage shows a correlation with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on multi-decadal timescales; the former leading by 15 years. This is relevant for climate in the North Atlantic. PMID:26656850

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation covaries with Agulhas leakage

DOE PAGES

Biastoch, Arne; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Morrison, Adele K.; ...

2015-12-10

The interoceanic transfer of seawater between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic, ‘Agulhas leakage’, forms a choke point for the overturning circulation in the global ocean. Here, by combining output from a series of high-resolution ocean and climate models with in situ and satellite observations, we construct a time series of Agulhas leakage for the period 1870–2014. The time series demonstrates the impact of Southern Hemisphere westerlies on decadal timescales. Agulhas leakage shows a correlation with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on multi-decadal timescales; the former leading by 15 years. Lastly, this is relevant for climate in the North Atlantic.

Statistical surrogate models for prediction of high-consequence climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Constantine, Paul; Field, Richard V., Jr.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2011-09-01

In safety engineering, performance metrics are defined using probabilistic risk assessments focused on the low-probability, high-consequence tail of the distribution of possible events, as opposed to best estimates based on central tendencies. We frame the climate change problem and its associated risks in a similar manner. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We therefore propose the use of specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) for the purpose of exploring the probability law of various climate variables of interest.more » A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, e.g., the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), or to a collection of outputs from a General Circulation Model (GCM), e.g., the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and its predecessors. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework is developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, in the use of the proposed approach to assess these risks.« less

Large-scale circulation patterns, instability factors and global precipitation modeling as influenced by external forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundel, A.; Kulikova, I.; Kruglova, E.; Muravev, A.

2003-04-01

The scope of the study is to estimate the relationship between large-scale circulation regimes, various instability indices and global precipitation with different boundary conditions, considered as external forcing. The experiments were carried out in the ensemble-prediction framework of the dynamic-statistical monthly forecast scheme run in the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia every ten days. The extension to seasonal intervals makes it necessary to investigate the role of slowly changing boundary conditions among which the sea surface temperature (SST) may be defined as the most effective factor. Continuous integrations of the global spectral T41L15 model for the whole year 2000 (starting from January 1) were performed with the climatic SST and the Reynolds Archive SSTs. Monthly values of the SST were projected on the year days using spline interpolation technique. First, the global precipitation values in experiments were compared to the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climate Program) daily observation data. Although the global mean precipitation is underestimated by the model, some large-scale regional amounts correspond to the real ones (e.g. for Europe) fairly well. On the whole, however, anomaly phases failed to be reproduced. The precipitation averaged over the whole land revealed a greater sensitivity to the SSTs than that over the oceans. The wavelet analysis was applied to separate the low- and high-frequency signal of the SST influence on the large-scale circulation and precipitation. A derivative of the Wallace-Gutzler teleconnection index for the East-Atlantic oscillation was taken as the circulation characteristic. The daily oscillation index values and precipitation amounts averaged over Europe were decomposed using wavelet approach with different “mother wavelets” up to approximation level 3. It was demonstrated that an increase in the precipitation amount over Europe was associated with the zonal flow intensification over the Northern Atlantic when the real SSTs were used. Blocking structures in the circulation caused decreasing precipitation amounts. The wavelet approach gave a more distinctive discrimination in the modeled circulation and precipitation patterns versus different external forcing than a number of other statistical techniques. Several atmospheric instability indices (e.g. the Phillips like parameters, Richardson number etc) were additionally used in post-processing for a more detailed validation of the modeled large-scale and total precipitation amounts. It was shown that a reasonable variety of instability indices must be used for such validations and for precipitation output corrections. Their statistical stability may be substantiated only on the ensemble modeling basis. This work was performed with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (02-05-64655).

Evaluating the fidelity of CMIP5 models in producing large-scale meteorological patterns over the Northwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintner, B. R.; Loikith, P. C.; Pike, M.; Aragon, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change information is increasingly required at impact-relevant scales. However, most state-of-the-art climate models are not of sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve features explicitly at such scales. This challenge is particularly acute in regions of complex topography, such as the Pacific Northwest of the United States. To address this scale mismatch problem, we consider large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs), which can be resolved by climate models and associated with the occurrence of local scale climate and climate extremes. In prior work, using self-organizing maps (SOMs), we computed LSMPs over the northwestern United States (NWUS) from daily reanalysis circulation fields and further related these to the occurrence of observed extreme temperatures and precipitation: SOMs were used to group LSMPs into 12 nodes or clusters spanning the continuum of synoptic variability over the regions. Here this observational foundation is utilized as an evaluation target for a suite of global climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Evaluation is performed in two primary ways. First, daily model circulation fields are assigned to one of the 12 reanalysis nodes based on minimization of the mean square error. From this, a bulk model skill score is computed measuring the similarity between the model and reanalysis nodes. Next, SOMs are applied directly to the model output and compared to the nodes obtained from reanalysis. Results reveal that many of the models have LSMPs analogous to the reanalysis, suggesting that the models reasonably capture observed daily synoptic states.

Vertical Structure of the Urban Boundary Layer over Marseille Under Sea-Breeze Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemonsu, Aude; Bastin, Sophie; Masson, Valéry; Drobinski, Philippe

2006-03-01

During the UBL-ESCOMPTE program (June July 2001), intensive observations were performed in Marseille (France). In particular, a Doppler lidar, located in the north of the city, provided radial velocity measurements on a 6-km radius area in the lowest 3 km of the troposphere. Thus, it is well adapted to document the vertical structure of the atmosphere above complex terrain, notably in Marseille, which is bordered by the Mediterranean sea and framed by numerous massifs. The present study focuses on the last day of the intensive observation period 2 (26 June 2001), which is characterized by a weak synoptic pressure gradient favouring the development of thermal circulations. Under such conditions, a complex stratification of the atmosphere is observed. Three-dimensional numerical simulations, with the Méso-NH atmospheric model including the town energy balance (TEB) urban parameterization, are conducted over south-eastern France. A complete evaluation of the model outputs was already performed at both regional and city scales. Here, the 250-m resolution outputs describing the vertical structure of the atmosphere above the Marseille area are compared to the Doppler lidar data, for which the spatial resolution is comparable. This joint analysis underscores the consistency between the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) observed by the Doppler lidar and that modelled by Méso-NH. The observations and simulations reveal the presence of a shallow sea breeze (SSB) superimposed on a deep sea breeze (DSB) above Marseille during daytime. Because of the step-like shape of the Marseille coastline, the SSB is organized in two branches of different directions, which converge above the city centre. The analysis of the 250-m wind fields shows evidence of the role of the local topography on the local dynamics. Indeed, the topography tends to reinforce the SSB while it weakens the DSB. The ABL is directly affected by the different sea-breeze circulations, while the urban effects appear to be negligible.

Improving the Amazonian Hydrologic Cycle in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere, Single Column Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, A. B.; Denning, S.; Baker, I.; Prihodko, L.; Branson, M.

2006-12-01

We have coupled a land-surface model, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB3), to a single column of the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU-GCM) in the Amazon River Basin. This is a preliminary step in the broader goal of improved simulation of Basin-wide hydrology. A previous version of the coupled model (SiB2) showed drought and catastrophic dieback of the Amazon rain forest. SiB3 includes updated soil hydrology and root physiology. Our test area for the coupled single column model is near Santarem, Brazil, where measurements from the km 83 flux tower in the Tapajos National Forest can be used to evaluate model output. The model was run for 2001 using NCEP2 Reanalysis as driver data. Preliminary results show that the updated biosphere model coupled to the GCM produces improved simulations of the seasonal cycle of surface water balance and precipitation. Comparisons of the diurnal and seasonal cycles of surface fluxes are also being made.

Non-Dimensional Formulation of Ventricular Work-Load Severity Under Concomitant Heart Valve Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Melody; Simon-Walker, Rachael; Dasi, Lakshmi

2012-11-01

Current guidelines on assessing the severity of heart valve disease rely on dimensional disease specific measures and are thus unable to capture severity under a concomitant heart valve disease scenario. Experiments were conducted to measure ventricular work-load in an in-house in-vitro left heart simulator. In-house tri-leaflet heart valves were built and parameterized to model concomitant heart valve disease. Measured ventricular power varied non-linearly with cardiac output and mean aortic pressure. Significant data collapse could be achieved by the non-dimensionalization of ventricular power with cardiac output, fluid density, and a length scale. The dimensionless power, Circulation Energy Dissipation Index (CEDI), indicates that concomitant conditions require a significant increase in the amount of work needed to sustain cardiac function. It predicts severity without the need to quantify individual disease severities. This indicates the need for new fluid-dynamics similitude based clinical guidelines to assist patients with multiple heart valve diseases. Funded by the American Heart Association.

Arctic Ocean Pathways in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, Yevgeny; van Gennip, Simon J.; Kelly, Stephen J.; Popova, Ekaterina E.; Yool, Andrew

2017-04-01

In the last three decades, changes in the Arctic environment have been occurring at an increasing rate. The opening up of large areas of previously sea ice-covered ocean affects the marine environment with potential impacts on Arctic ecosystems, including through changes in Arctic access, industries and societies. Changes to sea ice and surface winds result in large-scale shifts in ocean circulation and oceanic pathways. This study presents a high-resolution analysis of the projected ocean circulation and pathways of the Arctic water masses across the 21st century. The analysis is based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the ocean general circulation model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) at the 1/4-degree horizontal resolution. The atmospheric forcing is from HadGEM2-ES model output from IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) simulations performed for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), and follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. During the 21st century the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increased by in excess of 4 deg. C. Annual mean Arctic sea ice thickness drops to less than 0.5m, and the Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer from the mid-century. We use an off-line tracer technique to investigate Arctic pathways of the Atlantic and Pacific waters (AW and PW respectively) under this future climate. The AW tracers have been released in the eastern Fram Strait and in the western Barents Sea, whereas the PW tracer has been seeded in the Bering Strait. In the second half of the century the upper 1000 m ocean circulation shows a reduction in the eastward AW flow along the continental slopes towards the Makarov and Canada basins and a deviation of the PW flow away from the Beaufort Sea towards the Siberian coast. Strengthening of Arctic boundary current and intensification of the cyclonic gyre in the Nansen basin of the Arctic Ocean is accompanied by weakening of the current and an anti-cyclonic gyre spin-up in the Makarov Basin. This presents a shift of the Arctic circulation "dipole" and of the Transpolar Drift, with the consequence that the PW flow towards Fram Strait is significantly reduced by the end of the century, weakening the Pacific-Atlantic connection via the Arctic Ocean, and reducing the Arctic freshwater outflow into the North Atlantic. Examination of the simulations suggests that these circulation changes are primarily due to the shift in the wind.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8: Users Guide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Justus, C. G.; James, B. F.

1999-05-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8 is presented and its new features are discussed. Mars-GRAM uses new values of planetary reference ellipsoid radii, gravity term, and rotation rate (consistent with current JPL values) and includes centrifugal effects on gravity. The model now uses NASA Ames Global Circulation Model low resolution topography. Curvature corrections are applied to winds and limits based on speed of sound are applied. Altitude of the F1 ionization peak and density scale height, including effects of change of molecular weight with altitude are computed. A check is performed to disallow temperatures below CO2 sublimination. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAM source code and data files and running the program. Sample input and output are provided. An example of incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code is also given.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8: Users Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; James, B. F.

1999-01-01

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) Version 3.8 is presented and its new features are discussed. Mars-GRAM uses new values of planetary reference ellipsoid radii, gravity term, and rotation rate (consistent with current JPL values) and includes centrifugal effects on gravity. The model now uses NASA Ames Global Circulation Model low resolution topography. Curvature corrections are applied to winds and limits based on speed of sound are applied. Altitude of the F1 ionization peak and density scale height, including effects of change of molecular weight with altitude are computed. A check is performed to disallow temperatures below CO2 sublimination. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAM source code and data files and running the program. Sample input and output are provided. An example of incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code is also given.

[Clinical and experimental study of the production of renal hemodynamic effects of IABP-assisted pulsatile flow extracorporeal circulation].

PubMed

Moro, H

1992-01-01

Renal hemodynamics during IABP-assisted pulsatile flow extracorporeal circulation was assessed in terms of measurement values for intraoperative renal blood flow obtained by the local thermodilution method in human clinical patients. In addition, the effect of IABP on renal hemodynamics was investigated in an animal model of renal denervation in a study undertaken to elucidate the action mechanism of IABP. Eighteen patients with acquired heart disease were involved in the study and measured for the renal blood flow (RBF), cardiac output (CO), renal-systemic partition coefficient for blood flow (RBF/CO), renal vascular resistance (RVR) and perfusion pressure. In the pulsatile flow group, the RBF/CO increased as the number of pump runs increased, whole the RVR was conversely reduced with increasing pump runs. The experimental study without extracorporeal circulation was conducted on 19 mongrel dogs. During IABP runs RBF/CO increased, while the RVR decreased. After renal denervation, no noticeable influence of IABP upon renal hemodynamics was observed. Following a loading dose of noradrenaline (Norad), the RVR increased in a Norad concentration-dependent fashion, independently of IABP and renal denervation. These results indicate that IABP reduces the RVR and thereby exerts a favorable action on renal hemodynamics during pump times. The study thus warrants us to surmise that a mechanism involving the renal sympathetic nerves might play an important role in the production of favorable renal hemodynamic effects of IABP-assisted pulsatile flow extracorporeal circulation.

Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land–sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areasmore » of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630–3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.« less

Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

2017-12-01

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630-3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

Numerical Modeling of a Shallow Borehole Thermal Energy Storage System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catolico, N.; Ge, S.; Lu, N.; McCartney, J. S.

2014-12-01

Borehole thermal energy storage (BTES) combined with solar thermal energy harvesting is an economic technological system to garner and store energy as well as an environmentally-sustainable alternative for the heating of buildings. The first community-scale BTES system in North America was installed in 2007 in the Drake Landing Solar Community (DLSC), about 35 miles south of Calgary, Canada. The BTES system involves direct circulation of water heated from solar thermal panels in the summer into a storage tank, after which it is circulate within an array of 144 closed-loop geothermal heat exchangers having a depth of 35 m and a spacing of 2.5 m. In the winter the circulation direction is reversed to supply heat to houses. Data collection over a six year period indicates that this system can supply more than 90% of the winter heating energy needs for 52 houses in the community. One major challenge facing the BTES system technology is the relatively low annual efficiency, i.e., the ratio of energy input and output is in the range of 15% to 40% for the system in Drake Landing. To better understand the working principles of BTES and to improve BTES performance for future applications at larger scales, a three-dimensional transient coupled fluid and heat transfer model is established using TOUGH2. The time-dependent injection temperatures and circulation rate measured over the six years of monitoring are used as model input. The simulations are calibrated using soil temperature data measured at different locations over time. The time-dependent temperature distributions within the borehole region agree well with the measured temperatures for soil with an intrinsic permeability of 10e-19 m2, an apparent thermal conductivity of 2.03 W/m°C, and a volumetric heat capacity of 2.31 MJ/m-3°C. The calibrated model serves as the basis for a sensitivity analysis of soil and operational parameters on BTES system efficiency preformed with TOUGH2. Preliminary results suggest 1) BTES efficiency increases with increased in-pipe circulation rates; 2) BTES efficiency increases with decreasing soil thermal conductivity due to lateral heat loss from the system; and 3) BTES efficiency increases only slightly with decreasing soil permeability.

A Physical Heart Failure Simulation System Utilizing the Total Artificial Heart and Modified Donovan Mock Circulation.

PubMed

Crosby, Jessica R; DeCook, Katrina J; Tran, Phat L; Betterton, Edward; Smith, Richard G; Larson, Douglas F; Khalpey, Zain I; Burkhoff, Daniel; Slepian, Marvin J

2017-07-01

With the growth and diversity of mechanical circulatory support (MCS) systems entering clinical use, a need exists for a robust mock circulation system capable of reliably emulating and reproducing physiologic as well as pathophysiologic states for use in MCS training and inter-device comparison. We report on the development of such a platform utilizing the SynCardia Total Artificial Heart and a modified Donovan Mock Circulation System, capable of being driven at normal and reduced output. With this platform, clinically relevant heart failure hemodynamics could be reliably reproduced as evidenced by elevated left atrial pressure (+112%), reduced aortic flow (-12.6%), blunted Starling-like behavior, and increased afterload sensitivity when compared with normal function. Similarly, pressure-volume relationships demonstrated enhanced sensitivity to afterload and decreased Starling-like behavior in the heart failure model. Lastly, the platform was configured to allow the easy addition of a left ventricular assist device (HeartMate II at 9600 RPM), which upon insertion resulted in improvement of hemodynamics. The present configuration has the potential to serve as a viable system for training and research, aimed at fostering safe and effective MCS device use. © 2016 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Ajayi, V. O.; Adejare, A. T.; Adeyeri, O. E.; Gbode, I. E.; Ogunjobi, K. O.; Nikulin, G.; Abolude, A. T.

2018-04-01

This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann-Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980-2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.

Multi-criterion model ensemble of CMIP5 surface air temperature over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tiantian; Tao, Yumeng; Li, Jingjing; Zhu, Qian; Su, Lu; He, Xiaojia; Zhang, Xiaoming

2018-05-01

The global circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for simulating climate change, projecting future temperature changes, and therefore, supporting the preparation of national climate adaptation plans. However, different GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over various regions. The reason is that GCMs' configurations, module characteristics, and dynamic forcings vary from one to another. Model ensemble techniques are extensively used to post-process the outputs from GCMs and improve the variability of model outputs. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC, or R) and uncertainty are commonly used statistics for evaluating the performances of GCMs. However, the simultaneous achievements of all satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed in using many model ensemble techniques. In this paper, we propose a multi-model ensemble framework, using a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm (termed MOSPD), to evaluate different characteristics of ensemble candidates and to provide comprehensive trade-off information for different model ensemble solutions. A case study of optimizing the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over different geographical regions of China is carried out. The data covers from the period of 1900 to 2100, and the projections of SAT are analyzed with regard to three different statistical indices (i.e., RMSE, CC, and uncertainty). Among the derived ensemble solutions, the trade-off information is further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistics. The comparison results over historical period (1900-2005) show that the optimized solutions are superior over that obtained simple model average, as well as any single GCM output. The improvements of statistics are varying for different climatic regions over China. Future projection (2006-2100) with the proposed ensemble method identifies that the largest (smallest) temperature changes will happen in the South Central China (the Inner Mongolia), the North Eastern China (the South Central China), and the North Western China (the South Central China), under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Enhanced electrostatic vibrational energy harvesting using integrated opposite-charged electrets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Kai; Wu, Jin; Tang, Lihua; Hu, Liangxing; Woh Lye, Sun; Miao, Jianmin

2017-04-01

This paper presents a sandwich-structured MEMS electret-based vibrational energy harvester (e-VEH) that has two opposite-charged electrets integrated into a single electrostatic device. Compared to the conventional two-plate configuration where the maximum charge can only be induced when the movable mass reaches its lowest position, the proposed harvester is capable of creating maximum charge induction at both the highest and the lowest extremes, leading to an enhanced output performance. As a proof of concept, an out-of-plane MEMS e-VEH device with an overall volume of about 0.24 cm3 is designed, modeled, fabricated and characterized. A holistic equivalent circuit model incorporating the mechanical dynamic model and two capacitive circuits has been established to study the charge circulations. With the fabricated prototype, the experimental analysis demonstrates the superior performance of the proposed sandwiched e-VEH: the output voltage increases by 80.9% and 18.6% at an acceleration of 5 m s-2 compared to the top electret alone and bottom electret alone configurations, respectively. The experimental results also confirm the waveform derivation with the increase of excitation, which is in good agreement with the circuit simulation results. The proposed sandwiched e-VEH topology provides an effective and convenient methodology for improving the performance of electrostatic energy harvesting devices.

Variational analysis of drifter positions and model outputs for the reconstruction of surface currents in the central Adriatic during fall 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taillandier, V.; Griffa, A.; Poulain, P.-M.; Signell, R.; Chiggiato, J.; Carniel, S.

2008-01-01

In this paper we present an application of a variational method for the reconstruction of the velocity field in a coastal flow in the central Adriatic Sea, using in situ data from surface drifters and outputs from the ROMS circulation model. The variational approach, previously developed and tested for mesoscale open ocean flows, has been improved and adapted to account for inhomogeneities on boundary current dynamics over complex bathymetry and coastline and for weak Lagrangian persistence in coastal flows. The velocity reconstruction is performed using nine drifter trajectories over 45 d, and a hierarchy of indirect tests is introduced to evaluate the results as the real ocean state is not known. For internal consistency and impact of the analysis, three diagnostics characterizing the particle prediction and transport, in terms of residence times in various zones and export rates from the boundary current toward the interior, show that the reconstruction is quite effective. A qualitative comparison with sea color data from the MODIS satellite images shows that the reconstruction significantly improves the description of the boundary current with respect to the ROMS model first guess, capturing its main features and its exchanges with the interior when sampled by the drifters. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Mars-GRAM Applications for Mars Science Laboratory Mission Site Selection Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary; Justus, C. G.

2007-01-01

An overview is presented of the Mars-Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) and its new features. One important new feature is the "auxiliary profile" option, whereby a simple input file is used to replace mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. An auxiliary profile can be generated from any source of data or alternate model output. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5) model) for three candidate Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) landing sites (Terby Crater, Melas Chasma, and Gale Crater). A global Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) database has also been generated for purposes of making 'Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components, averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude bins and 15 degree L(sub S) bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. Comparisons show reasonably good consistency between Mars-GRAM with low dust optical depth and both TES observed and mesoscale model simulated density at the three study sites. Mean winds differ by a more significant degree. Comparisons of mesoscale and TES standard deviations' with conventional Mars-GRAM values, show that Mars-GRAM density perturbations are somewhat conservative (larger than observed variability), while mesoscale-modeled wind variations are larger than Mars-GRAM model estimates. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

Characterizing observed circulation patterns within a bay using HF radar and numerical model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donncha, Fearghal; Hartnett, Michael; Nash, Stephen; Ren, Lei; Ragnoli, Emanuele

2015-02-01

In this study, High Frequency Radar (HFR), observations in conjunction with numerical model simulations investigate surface flow dynamics in a tidally-active, wind-driven bay; Galway Bay situated on the West coast of Ireland. Comparisons against ADCP sensor data permit an independent assessment of HFR and model performance, respectively. Results show root-mean-square (rms) differences in the range 10 - 12cm/s while model rms equalled 12 - 14cm/s. Subsequent analysis focus on a detailed comparison of HFR and model output. Harmonic analysis decompose both sets of surface currents based on distinct flow process, enabling a correlation analysis between the resultant output and dominant forcing parameters. Comparisons of barotropic model simulations and HFR tidal signal demonstrate consistently high agreement, particularly of the dominant M2 tidal signal. Analysis of residual flows demonstrate considerably poorer agreement, with the model failing to replicate complex flows. A number of hypotheses explaining this discrepancy are discussed, namely: discrepancies between regional-scale, coastal-ocean models and globally-influenced bay-scale dynamics; model uncertainties arising from highly-variable wind-driven flows across alarge body of water forced by point measurements of wind vectors; and the high dependence of model simulations on empirical wind-stress coefficients. The research demonstrates that an advanced, widely-used hydro-environmental model does not accurately reproduce aspects of surface flow processes, particularly with regards wind forcing. Considering the significance of surface boundary conditions in both coastal and open ocean dynamics, the viability of using a systematic analysis of results to improve model predictions is discussed.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L

2017-06-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation.

Climate Simulations based on a different-grid nested and coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dan; Ji, Jinjun; Li, Yinpeng

2002-05-01

An atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (A VIM) has been coupled with a nine-layer General Cir-culation Model (GCM) of Institute of Atmospheic Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (IAP/LASG), which is rhomboidally truncated at zonal wave number 15, to simulate global climatic mean states. A VIM is a model having inter-feedback between land surface processes and eco-physiological processes on land. As the first step to couple land with atmosphere completely, the physiological processes are fixed and only the physical part (generally named the SVAT (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme) model) of AVIM is nested into IAP/LASG L9R15 GCM. The ocean part of GCM is prescribed and its monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is the climatic mean value. With respect to the low resolution of GCM, i.e., each grid cell having lon-gitude 7.5° and latitude 4.5°, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere. The coupling model has been integrated for 15 years and its last ten-year mean of outputs was chosen for analysis. Compared with observed data and NCEP reanalysis, the coupled model simulates the main characteris-tics of global atmospheric circulation and the fields of temperature and moisture. In particular, the simu-lated precipitation and surface air temperature have sound results. The work creates a solid base on coupling climate models with the biosphere.

Aeolian dunes as ground truth for atmospheric modeling on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayward, R.K.; Titus, T.N.; Michaels, T.I.; Fenton, L.K.; Colaprete, A.; Christensen, P.R.

2009-01-01

Martian aeolian dunes preserve a record of atmosphere/surface interaction on a variety of scales, serving as ground truth for both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and mesoscale climate models, such as the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS). We hypothesize that the location of dune fields, expressed globally by geographic distribution and locally by dune centroid azimuth (DCA), may record the long-term integration of atmospheric activity across a broad area, preserving GCM-scale atmospheric trends. In contrast, individual dune morphology, as expressed in slipface orientation (SF), may be more sensitive to localized variations in circulation, preserving topographically controlled mesoscale trends. We test this hypothesis by comparing the geographic distribution, DCA, and SF of dunes with output from the Ames Mars GCM and, at a local study site, with output from MRAMS. When compared to the GCM: 1) dunes generally lie adjacent to areas with strongest winds, 2) DCA agrees fairly well with GCM modeled wind directions in smooth-floored craters, and 3) SF does not agree well with GCM modeled wind directions. When compared to MRAMS modeled winds at our study site: 1) DCA generally coincides with the part of the crater where modeled mean winds are weak, and 2) SFs are consistent with some weak, topographically influenced modeled winds. We conclude that: 1) geographic distribution may be valuable as ground truth for GCMs, 2) DCA may be useful as ground truth for both GCM and mesoscale models, and 3) SF may be useful as ground truth for mesoscale models. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

The OregonHeart Total Artificial Heart: Design and Performance on a Mock Circulatory Loop.

PubMed

Glynn, Jeremy; Song, Howard; Hull, Bryan; Withers, Stanley; Gelow, Jill; Mudd, James; Starr, Albert; Wampler, Richard

2017-10-01

Widespread use of heart transplantation is limited by the scarcity of donor organs. Total artificial heart (TAH) development has been pursued to address this shortage, especially to treat patients who require biventricular support. We have developed a novel TAH that utilizes a continuously spinning rotor that shuttles between two positions to provide pulsatile, alternating blood flow to the systemic and pulmonary circulations without artificial valves. Flow rates and pressures generated by the TAH are controlled by adjusting rotor speed, cycle frequency, and the proportion of each cycle spent pumping to either circulation. To validate the design, a TAH prototype was placed in a mock circulatory loop that simulates vascular resistance, pressure, and compliance in normal and pathophysiologic conditions. At a systemic blood pressure of 120/80 mm Hg, nominal TAH output was 7.4 L/min with instantaneous flows reaching 17 L/min. Pulmonary artery, and left and right atrial pressures were all maintained within normal ranges. To simulate implant into a patient with severe pulmonary hypertension, the pulmonary vascular resistance of the mock loop was increased to 7.5 Wood units. By increasing pump speed to the pulmonary circulation, cardiac output could be maintained at 7.4 L/min as mean pulmonary artery pressure increased to 56 mm Hg while systemic blood pressures remained normal. This in vitro testing of a novel, shuttling TAH demonstrated that cardiac output could be maintained across a range of pathophysiologic conditions including pulmonary hypertension. These experiments serve as a proof-of-concept for the design, which has proceeded to in vivo testing. © 2017 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing During Boreal Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

2005-01-01

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on simulations using the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of clouds in Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS). The aerosol loading are prescribed from three-dimensional monthly distribution of tropospheric aerosols viz., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from output of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor are computed as wavelength-dependent radiative forcing in the radiative transfer scheme of the fvGCM, and as a function of the aerosol loading and ambient relative humidity. We find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excites a planetary scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Additionally, atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over Northern Africa, and Middle East), and black carbon (over South-East Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east-west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea, and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentration are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations.

Periodic fluctuations in deep water formation due to sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, R.

2012-12-01

During the last ice age, several abrupt warming events took place, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. Their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature increase. The leading hypothesis to explain their occurrence postulates that the warming was caused by abrupt disruptions of the North Atlantic Current due to meltwater discharge from destabilized ice sheets (Heinrich events). However, the number of warming events outnumber the those of ice-sheet collapse. Thus, the majority of D-O events are not attributed to surface freshwater anomalies, and the underlying mechanism behind their occurrence remain unexplained. Using a simple dynamical model of sea ice and an overturning circulation, I show the existence of self-sustained relaxation oscillations in the overturning circulation. The insulating effect of sea ice is shown to paradoxically lead to a net loss of heat from the top layer of the polar ocean when sea ice retreats. Repeated heat loss results in a denser top layer and a destabilized water column, which triggers convection. The convective state pulls the system out of its preferred mode of circulation, setting up relaxation oscillations. The period of oscillations in this case is linked to the geometry of the ocean basin, if solar forcing is assumed to remain constant. If appropriate glacial freshwater forcing is applied to the model, a pattern of oscillation is produced that bears remarkable similarity to the observed fluctuations in North Atlantic climate between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present.; Comparison of NGRIP δ 18-O (proxy for near surface air temperature) between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present, showing Bond cycles (left) with the model output when forced with appropriate glacial freshwater forcing (right).

Validation of Mars-GRAM and Planned New Features

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Duvall, Aleta; Keller, Vernon W.

2004-01-01

For altitudes below 80 km, Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is based on output climatology from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). At COSPAR 2002, results were presented of validation tests of Mars-GRAM versus data from Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Radio Science (RS) experiment. Further validation tests are presented comparing Mars- GRAM densities with those from the European Mars Climate Database (MCD), and comparing densities from both Mars-GRAM and MCD against TES observations. Throughout most of the height and latitude range of TES data (040 km and 70s to 70N), good agreement is found between atmospheric densities from Mars-GRAM and MCD. However, at the season and latitude zone for Mars Phoenix arrival and landing (Ls = 65 to 80 degrees and latitude 65 to 75N), Mars-GRAM densities are about 30 to 45 percent higher than MCD densities near 40 km altitude. Further evaluation is warranted concerning potential impact of these model differences on planning for Phoenix entry and descent. Three planned features for Mars-GRAM update are also discussed: (1) new MGCM and Thermospheric General Circulation Model data sets to be used as a revised basis for Mars-GRAM mean atmosphere, (2) a new feature to represent planetary-scale traveling waves for upper altitude density variations (such as found during Mars Odyssey aerobraking), and (3) a new model for effects of high resolution topographic slope on winds near the surface (0 to 4.5 km above MOLA topography level). Mars-GRAM slope winds will be computed from a diagnostic (algebraic) relationship based on Ye, Segal, and Pielke (1990). This approach differs from mesoscale models (such as MRAMS and Mars MM5), which use prognostic, full-physics solutions of the time- and space-dependent differential equations of motion. As such, slope winds in Mars-GRAM will be consistent with its "engineering-level" approach, and will be extremely fast and easy to evaluate, compared with mesoscale model solutions. Mars-GRAM slope winds are not being suggested as a replacement for sophisticated, full-physics Mars mesoscale models, but may have value, particularly for preliminary screening of large numbers of candidate landing sites for future Mars missions, such as Phoenix and Mars Science Laboratory. Test output is presented from Mars-GRAM slope winds in the area of Gusev Crater and Valles Marineris.

Causes and Model Skill of the Persistent Intense Rainfall and Flooding in Paraguay during the Austral Summer 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Munoz, A. G.; Pastén, M.

2017-12-01

During the austral summer 2015-16 severe flooding displaced over 150,000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and Southern Brazil. This flooding was out of phase with the typical seasonal cycle of the Paraguay River, and was driven by repeated intense rainfall events in the Lower Paraguay River basin. Using a weather typing approach within a diagnostic framework, we show that enhanced moisture inflow from the low-level jet and local convergence associated with baroclinic systems favored the development of mesoscale convective activity and enhanced precipitation. The observed circulation patterns were made more likely by the cross-timescale interactions of multiple climate mechanisms including the strong, mature El Niño event and an active Madden-Julien Oscillation in phases four and five. We also perform a comparison of the rainfall predictability using seasonal forecasts from the Latin American Observatory of Climate Events (OLE2) and sub-seasonal forecasts produced by the ECMWF. We find that the model output precipitation field exhibited limited skill at lead times beyond the synoptic timescale, but that a Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach, in which the leading principal components of the observed rainfall field are regressed on the leading principal components of model-simulated rainfall fields, substantially improves spatial representation of rainfall forecasts. Possible implications for flood preparedness are briefly discussed.

The Extrapolar SWIFT model (version 1.0): fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreyling, Daniel; Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

2018-03-01

The Extrapolar SWIFT model is a fast ozone chemistry scheme for interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast to the widely used prescribed ozone, the SWIFT ozone layer interacts with the model dynamics and can respond to atmospheric variability or climatological trends.The Extrapolar SWIFT model employs a repro-modelling approach, in which algebraic functions are used to approximate the numerical output of a full stratospheric chemistry and transport model (ATLAS). The full model solves a coupled chemical differential equation system with 55 initial and boundary conditions (mixing ratio of various chemical species and atmospheric parameters). Hence the rate of change of ozone over 24 h is a function of 55 variables. Using covariances between these variables, we can find linear combinations in order to reduce the parameter space to the following nine basic variables: latitude, pressure altitude, temperature, overhead ozone column and the mixing ratio of ozone and of the ozone-depleting families (Cly, Bry, NOy and HOy). We will show that these nine variables are sufficient to characterize the rate of change of ozone. An automated procedure fits a polynomial function of fourth degree to the rate of change of ozone obtained from several simulations with the ATLAS model. One polynomial function is determined per month, which yields the rate of change of ozone over 24 h. A key aspect for the robustness of the Extrapolar SWIFT model is to include a wide range of stratospheric variability in the numerical output of the ATLAS model, also covering atmospheric states that will occur in a future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes or reduction of stratospheric chlorine loading).For validation purposes, the Extrapolar SWIFT model has been integrated into the ATLAS model, replacing the full stratospheric chemistry scheme. Simulations with SWIFT in ATLAS have proven that the systematic error is small and does not accumulate during the course of a simulation. In the context of a 10-year simulation, the ozone layer simulated by SWIFT shows a stable annual cycle, with inter-annual variations comparable to the ATLAS model. The application of Extrapolar SWIFT requires the evaluation of polynomial functions with 30-100 terms. Computers can currently calculate such polynomial functions at thousands of model grid points in seconds. SWIFT provides the desired numerical efficiency and computes the ozone layer 104 times faster than the chemistry scheme in the ATLAS CTM.

The contribution of natural variability to GCM bias: Can we effectively bias-correct climate projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAfee, S. A.; DeLaFrance, A.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impacts of climate change often entails using projections from inherently imperfect general circulation models (GCMs) to drive models that simulate biophysical or societal systems in great detail. Error or bias in the GCM output is often assessed in relation to observations, and the projections are adjusted so that the output from impacts models can be compared to historical or observed conditions. Uncertainty in the projections is typically accommodated by running more than one future climate trajectory to account for differing emissions scenarios, model simulations, and natural variability. The current methods for dealing with error and uncertainty treat them as separate problems. In places where observed and/or simulated natural variability is large, however, it may not be possible to identify a consistent degree of bias in mean climate, blurring the lines between model error and projection uncertainty. Here we demonstrate substantial instability in mean monthly temperature bias across a suite of GCMs used in CMIP5. This instability is greatest in the highest latitudes during the cool season, where shifts from average temperatures below to above freezing could have profound impacts. In models with the greatest degree of bias instability, the timing of regional shifts from below to above average normal temperatures in a single climate projection can vary by about three decades, depending solely on the degree of bias assessed. This suggests that current bias correction methods based on comparison to 20- or 30-year normals may be inappropriate, particularly in the polar regions.

Transport of chemical tracers from the boundary layer to stratosphere associated with the dynamics of the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Laura L.; Honomichl, Shawn B.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Abalos, Marta; Randel, William J.; Bergman, John W.; Bian, Jianchun

2016-12-01

Chemical transport associated with the dynamics of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) system is investigated using model output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model run in specified dynamics mode. The 3-D day-to-day behavior of modeled carbon monoxide is analyzed together with dynamical fields and transport boundaries to identify preferred locations of uplifting from the boundary layer, the role of subseasonal-scale dynamics in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), and the relationship of ASM transport and the stratospheric residual circulation. The model simulation of CO shows the intraseasonal east-west oscillation of the anticyclone may play an essential role in transporting convectively pumped boundary layer pollutants in the UTLS. A statistical analysis of 11 year CO also shows that the southern flank of the Tibetan plateau is a preferred location for boundary layer tracers to be lofted to the tropopause region. The vertical structure of a model tracer (E90) further shows that the rapid ASM vertical transport is only effective up to the tropopause level (around 400 K). The efficiency of continued vertical transport into the deep stratosphere is limited by the slow ascent associated with the zonal-mean residual circulation in the lower stratosphere during northern summer. Quasi-isentropic transport near the 400 K potential temperature level is likely the most effective process for ASM anticyclone air to enter the stratosphere.

Predicting the Arctic Ocean Environment in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, Yevgeny; Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Nurser, George

2015-04-01

Recent environmental changes in the Arctic have clearly demonstrated that climate change is faster and more vigorously in the Polar Regions than anywhere else. Significantly, change in the Arctic Ocean (AO) environment presents a variety of impacts, from ecological to social-economic and political. Mitigation of this change and adaptation to it requires detailed and robust environmental predictions. Here we present a detailed projection of ocean circulation and sea ice from the present until 2099, based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the NEMO ¼ degree ocean model. The model is forced at the surface with HadGEM2-ES atmosphere model output from the UK Met. Office IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The HadGEM2-ES simulations span 1860-2099 and are one of an ensemble of runs performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and IPCC AR5. Between 2000-2009 and 2090-2099 the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increasing on average by about 4° C, particularly in the Barents and Kara Seas, and in the Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay. By the end of the simulation, Arctic sea ice has an average annual thickness of less than 10 cm in the central AO, and less than 0.5 m in the East-Siberian Sea and Canadian Archipelago, and disappears entirely during the Arctic summer. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface waves leads to the Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In winter, sea ice persists until the 2030s; then it sharply declines and disappears from the Central Arctic Ocean by the end of the 21st century, with MIZ provinces remaining in winter along the Siberian, Alaskan coasts and in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Analysis of the AO circulation reveals evidence of (i) the reversal of the Arctic boundary currents in the Canadian Basin, from a weak cyclonic current in 2040-2049 to a strong anti-cyclonic current in 2090-2099, and (ii) increased anti-cyclonic surface ocean circulation in the eastern part of the AO, while the surface circulation in the western Arctic becomes more cyclonic. We relate the shift in the circulation to changes in the winds and reduction of sea ice cover, which modify momentum transfer from atmosphere to the ocean. Our simulation suggests a potentially complex picture of future AO change, and highlights the importance of high resolution modelling in forecasting it.

Right Ventricular Failure Post LVAD Implantation Corrected with Biventricular Support: An In Vitro Model.

PubMed

Shehab, Sajad; Allida, Sabine M; Davidson, Patricia M; Newton, Phillip J; Robson, Desiree; Jansz, Paul C; Hayward, Christopher S

Right ventricular failure after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation is associated with high mortality. Management remains limited to pharmacologic therapy and temporary mechanical support. Delayed right ventricular assist device (RVAD) support after LVAD implantation is associated with poorer outcomes. With the advent of miniaturized, durable, continuous flow ventricular assist device systems, chronic RVAD and biventricular assist device (BiVAD) support has been used with some success. The purpose of this study was to assess combined BiVAD and LVAD with delayed RVAD support within a four-elemental mock circulatory loop (MCL) simulating the human cardiovascular system. Our hypothesis was that delayed continuous flow RVAD (RVAD) would produce similar hemodynamic and flow parameters to those of initial BiVAD support. Using the MCL, baseline biventricular heart failure with elevated right and left filling pressures with low cardiac output was simulated. The addition of LVAD within a biventricular configuration improved cardiac output somewhat, but was associated with persistent right heart failure with elevated right-sided filling pressures. The addition of an RVAD significantly improved LVAD outputs and returned filling pressures to normal throughout the circulation. In conclusion, RVAD support successfully restored hemodynamics and flow parameters of biventricular failure supported with isolated LVAD with persistent elevated right atrial pressure.

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2006-01-01

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Prognostic Aspects of Sub-seasonal Rainfall Characteristics using the Outputs of General Circulation Model: An Application of Statistical Downscaling and Temporal Disaggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ghosh, K.

2015-12-01

Most regions of India experience varied rainfall duration during the southwest monsoon, changes in which exhibit major impact not only agriculture, but also other sectors like hydrology, agriculture, food and fodder storage etc. In addition, changes in sub-seasonal rainfall characteristics highly impact the rice production. As part of the endeavor seasonal climate outlook, as well as information for weather within climate may be helpful for advance planning and risk management in agriculture. The General Circulation Model (GCM) provide an alternative to gather information for weather within climate but variability is very low in comparison to observation. On the other hand, the spatial resolution of GCM predicted rainfall is not found at the observed station/grid point. To tackle the problem, initially a statistical downscaling over 19 station of Odisha state is undertaken using the atmospheric parameters predicted by a GCM (NCEP-CFSv2). For the purpose, an extended domain is taken for analyzing the significant zone for the atmospheric parameters like zonal wind at 850hPa, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), geopotential height. A statistical model using the pattern projection method is further developed based on empirical orthogonal function. The downscaled rainfall is found better in association with station observation in comparison to raw GCM prediction in view of deterministic and probabilistic skill measure. Further, the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast from the GCMs can be used at different time steps for risk management. Therefore, downscaled seasonal/monthly rainfall is further converted to sub-seasonal/daily time scale using a non-homogeneous markov model. The simulated weather sequences are further compared with the observed sequence in view of categorical rainfall events. The outcomes suggest that the rainfall amount are overestimated for excess rainfall and henceforth larger excess rainfall events can be realized. The skill for prediction of rainfall events corresponding to lower thresholds is found higher. A detail discussion regarding skill of spatial downscale rainfall at observed stations and its further representation of sub-seasonal characteristics (spells, less rainfall, heavy rainfall, and moderate rainfall events) of rainfall for disaggregated outputs will be presented.

The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation

PubMed Central

Thompson, David W. J.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2017-01-01

Abstract We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the relationships between large‐scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and the detailed structure of Antarctic precipitation. We examine linkages between the high spatial resolution precipitation from a regional atmospheric model and four patterns of large‐scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability: the southern baroclinic annular mode, the southern annular mode, and the two Pacific‐South American teleconnection patterns. Variations in all four patterns influence the spatial configuration of precipitation over Antarctica, consistent with their signatures in high‐latitude meridional moisture fluxes. They impact not only the mean but also the incidence of extreme precipitation events. Current coupled‐climate models are able to reproduce all four patterns of atmospheric variability but struggle to correctly replicate their regional impacts on Antarctic climate. Thus, linking these patterns directly to Antarctic precipitation variability may allow a better estimate of future changes in precipitation than using model output alone. PMID:29398735

Anomalous circulation in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean in July-December 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panteleev, G.; Francis, O. P.; Yaremchuk, M.; Zhang, J.; Kulakov, M.; Onat, Y.

2017-12-01

Variability of the mean summer-fall ocean state in the Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean (PSAO) is studied using a dynamically constrained synthesis (4Dvar) of historical in situ observations collected during 1972 to 2008. Specifically, the oceanic response to the cyclonic (1989-1996) and anticyclonic (1972-1978, 1997-2006) phases o f the Arctic Ocean Oscillation (AOO) is assessed for the purpose of quantitatively comparing the 2008 circulation pattern that followed the 2007 ice cover minimum.It is shown that the PSAO circulation during July-December of 2008 was characterized by a pronounced negative Sea Surface Height (SSH) anomaly along theEurasian shelf break, which caused a significant decline of the transport in the Atlantic Water (AW) inflow region into the PSAO and increased the sea level difference betweenthe Bering and Chukchi Seas. This anomaly could be one of the reasons for the observed amplification of the Bering Strait transport carrying fresh Pacific Waters into the PSAO. Largrangian analysis of the optimized solution suggests that the freshwater (FW) accumulation in the Beaufort Gyre has a negligible contribution from the East Siberian Sea and is likely caused by the enhanced FW export from the region north of the Canadian Archipelago/Greenland.The inverse modeling results are confirmed by validation against independent altimetry observations and in situ velocity data from NABOS moorings. It is also shown that presented results are in significantly better agreement with the data than the output of the PIOMAS model run utilized as a first guess solution for the 4dVar analysis.

Mathematical Models of Seafloor Hydrothermal Systems Driven by Serpentinization of Peridotite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowell, R. P.; Rona, P. A.; Germanovich, L. N.

2001-12-01

Most seafloor hydrothermal systems are driven by heat transfer from subsurface magma bodies. At slow spreading ridges of the Atlantic and Indian oceans, however, magma supply is low; and tectonic activity brings mantle rocks to shallow depths in the crust. Then, the heat of formation released upon serpentinization of peridotite provides the energy source for hydrothermal circulation. This latter class of system has been relatively unstudied, but recent discoveries of peridotite-hosted hydrothermal systems along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge suggest that such systems may play an important role in geochemical cycling and biogeochemical processes. The likelihood that peridotite-hosted hydrothermal systems was more prevalent during the Archean further suggests that such systems may have played a role in the origin of life. We present the first mathematical models of seafloor hydrothermal systems driven by heat released upon serpentinization of peridotite. We assume seawater circulates through a major crack network in the host-peridotite and that cooling of the host-rock leads to the formation of microcracks through which the fluid infiltrates. Reaction of the fluid in microcracks with the host rock results in serpentinization and the heat released upon serpentinization is transported to the seafloor by the fluid circulating in the main crack network. The temperature and heat output of the resulting hydrothermal system is a function of the main network permeability and the rate at which the serpentinization reaction proceeds via diffusion and propagation of the microcracks. Although the temperature of such a system can be quite variable, vent temperatures between 10° C and 100° C are likely for typical crustal parameters.

Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.

2017-12-01

The frequency of extreme summer drought has been increasing in North China during the past sixty years, which has caused serious water shortages. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increasing extreme droughts. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations with various combinations of historical forcings, the authors investigated the driving mechanism behind the observed changes. Metrological drought is usually measured by precipitation anomalies, which show lower fidelity in current climate models compared to largescale circulation patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, a linear relationship is firstly established between the weakest regional average 850 hPa southerly winds and extreme summer drought. This meridional winds index (MWI) is then used as a proxy for attribution of extreme North China drought using CMIP5 outputs. Examination of the CMIP5 simulations reveals that the probability of the extreme summer droughts with the first percentile of MWI for 1850-2004 under anthropogenic forcing has increased by 100%, on average, relative to a pre-industrial control run. The more frequent occurrence of extremely weak MWIs or drought over North China is ascribed from weakened climate and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation due to the direct cooling effect from increased aerosol.

Evaluating the utility of dynamical downscaling in agricultural impacts projections

PubMed Central

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua; McInerney, David; Best, Neil; Foster, Ian; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

2014-01-01

Interest in estimating the potential socioeconomic costs of climate change has led to the increasing use of dynamical downscaling—nested modeling in which regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with general circulation model (GCM) output—to produce fine-spatial-scale climate projections for impacts assessments. We evaluate here whether this computationally intensive approach significantly alters projections of agricultural yield, one of the greatest concerns under climate change. Our results suggest that it does not. We simulate US maize yields under current and future CO2 concentrations with the widely used Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model, driven by a variety of climate inputs including two GCMs, each in turn downscaled by two RCMs. We find that no climate model output can reproduce yields driven by observed climate unless a bias correction is first applied. Once a bias correction is applied, GCM- and RCM-driven US maize yields are essentially indistinguishable in all scenarios (<10% discrepancy, equivalent to error from observations). Although RCMs correct some GCM biases related to fine-scale geographic features, errors in yield are dominated by broad-scale (100s of kilometers) GCM systematic errors that RCMs cannot compensate for. These results support previous suggestions that the benefits for impacts assessments of dynamically downscaling raw GCM output may not be sufficient to justify its computational demands. Progress on fidelity of yield projections may benefit more from continuing efforts to understand and minimize systematic error in underlying climate projections. PMID:24872455

Artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression model using principal components to estimate rainfall over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares dos Santos, T.; Mendes, D.; Rodrigues Torres, R.

2016-01-01

Several studies have been devoted to dynamic and statistical downscaling for analysis of both climate variability and climate change. This paper introduces an application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression (MLR) by principal components to estimate rainfall in South America. This method is proposed for downscaling monthly precipitation time series over South America for three regions: the Amazon; northeastern Brazil; and the La Plata Basin, which is one of the regions of the planet that will be most affected by the climate change projected for the end of the 21st century. The downscaling models were developed and validated using CMIP5 model output and observed monthly precipitation. We used general circulation model (GCM) experiments for the 20th century (RCP historical; 1970-1999) and two scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5; 2070-2100). The model test results indicate that the ANNs significantly outperform the MLR downscaling of monthly precipitation variability.

Sensitivity simulations of superparameterised convection in a general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybka, Harald; Tost, Holger

2015-04-01

Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) covering a horizontal grid spacing from a few hundred meters up to a few kilometers have been used to explicitly resolve small-scale and mesoscale processes. Special attention has been paid to realistically represent cloud dynamics and cloud microphysics involving cloud droplets, ice crystals, graupel and aerosols. The entire variety of physical processes on the small-scale interacts with the larger-scale circulation and has to be parameterised on the coarse grid of a general circulation model (GCM). Since more than a decade an approach to connect these two types of models which act on different scales has been developed to resolve cloud processes and their interactions with the large-scale flow. The concept is to use an ensemble of CRM grid cells in a 2D or 3D configuration in each grid cell of the GCM to explicitly represent small-scale processes avoiding the use of convection and large-scale cloud parameterisations which are a major source for uncertainties regarding clouds. The idea is commonly known as superparameterisation or cloud-resolving convection parameterisation. This study presents different simulations of an adapted Earth System Model (ESM) connected to a CRM which acts as a superparameterisation. Simulations have been performed with the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model comparing conventional GCM runs (including convection and large-scale cloud parameterisations) with the improved superparameterised EMAC (SP-EMAC) modeling one year with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice content. The sensitivity of atmospheric temperature, precipiation patterns, cloud amount and types is observed changing the embedded CRM represenation (orientation, width, no. of CRM cells, 2D vs. 3D). Additionally, we also evaluate the radiation balance with the new model configuration, and systematically analyse the impact of tunable parameters on the radiation budget and hydrological cycle. Furthermore, the subgrid variability (individual CRM cell output) is analysed in order to illustrate the importance of a highly varying atmospheric structure inside a single GCM grid box. Finally, the convective transport of Radon is observed comparing different transport procedures and their influence on the vertical tracer distribution.

Potential decline in geothermal energy generation due to rising temperatures under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angel, E.; Ortega, S.; Gonzalez-Duque, D.; Ruiz-Carrascal, D.

2016-12-01

Geothermal energy production depends on the difference between air temperature and the geothermal fluid temperature. The latter remains approximately constant over time, so the power generation varies according to local atmospheric conditions. Projected changes in near-surface air temperatures in the upper levels of the tropical belt are likely to exceed the projected temperature anomalies across many other latitudes, which implies that geothermal plants located in these regions may be affected, reducing their energy output. This study focuses on a hypothetical geothermal power plant, located in the headwaters of the Claro River watershed, a key high-altitude basin in Los Nevados Natural Park, on the El Ruiz-Tolima volcanic massif, in the Colombian Central Andes, a region with a known geothermal potential. Four different Atmospheric General Circulation Models where used to project temperature anomalies for the 2040-2069 prospective period. Their simulation outputs were merged in a differentially-weighted multi-model ensemble, whose weighting factors were defined according to the capability of individual models to reproduce ground truth data from a set of digital data-loggers installed in the basin since 2008 and from weather stations gathering climatic variables since the early 50s. Projected anomalies were computed for each of the Representative Concentration Pathways defined by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in the studied region. These climate change projections indicate that air temperatures will likely reach positive anomalies in the range +1.27 ºC to +3.47 ºC, with a mean value of +2.18 ºC. Under these conditions, the annual energy output declines roughly 1% per each degree of increase in near-surface temperature. These results must be taken into account in geothermal project evaluations in the region.

Posttransfusion Increase of Hematocrit per se Does Not Improve Circulatory Oxygen Delivery due to Increased Blood Viscosity.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Robert; Tsai, Amy G; Salazar Vázquez, Beatriz Y; Cabrales, Pedro; Hofmann, Axel; Meier, Jens; Shander, Aryeh; Spahn, Donat R; Friedman, Joel M; Tartakovsky, Daniel M; Intaglietta, Marcos

2017-05-01

Blood transfusion is used to treat acute anemia with the goal of increasing blood oxygen-carrying capacity as determined by hematocrit (Hct) and oxygen delivery (DO2). However, increasing Hct also increases blood viscosity, which may thus lower DO2 if the arterial circulation is a rigid hydraulic system as the resistance to blood flow will increase. The net effect of transfusion on DO2 in this system can be analyzed by using the relationship between Hct and systemic blood viscosity of circulating blood at the posttransfusion Hct to calculate DO2 and comparing this value with pretransfusion DO2. We hypothesized that increasing Hct would increase DO2 and tested our hypothesis by mathematically modeling DO2 in the circulation. Calculations were made assuming a normal cardiac output (5 L/min) with degrees of anemia ranging from 5% to 80% Hct deficit. We analyzed the effects of transfusing 0.5 or more units of 300 cc of packed red blood cells (PRBCs) at an Hct of 65% and calculated microcirculatory DO2 after accounting for increased blood viscosity and assuming no change in blood pressure. Our model accounts for O2 diffusion out of the circulation before blood arriving to the nutritional circulation and for changes in blood flow velocity. The immediate posttransfusion DO2 was also compared with DO2 after the transient increase in volume due to transfusion has subsided. Blood transfusion of up to 3 units of PRBCs increased DO2 when Hct (or hemoglobin) was 60% lower than normal, but did not increase DO2 when administered before this threshold. After accounting for the effect of increasing blood viscosity on blood flow owing to increasing Hct, we found in a mathematical simulation of DO2 that transfusion of up to 3 units of PRBCs does not increase DO2, unless anemia is the result of an Hct deficit greater than 60%. Observations that transfusions occasionally result in clinical improvement suggest that other mechanisms possibly related to increased blood viscosity may compensate for the absence of increase in DO2.

Circulation and physical processes within the San Gabriel River Estuary during summer 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberger, Kurt J.; Xu, Jingping; Stein, Eric D.; Noble, Marlene A.; Gartner, Anne L.

2007-01-01

The Southern California Coastal Water Research Project (SCCWRP) is developing a hydrodynamic model of the SGR estuary, which is part of the comprehensive water-quality model of the SGR estuary and watershed investigated by SCCWRP and other local agencies. The hydrodynamic model will help understanding of 1) the exchange processes between the estuary and coastal ocean; 2) the circulation patterns in the estuary; 3) upstream natural runoff and the cooling discharge from PGS. Like all models, the SGR hydrodynamic model is only useful after it is fully calibrated and validated. In May 2005, SCCWRP requested the assistance of the U.S. geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology team (CMG) in collecting data on the hydrodynamic conditions in the estuary during the summer dry season. The summer was chosen for field data collection as this was assumed to be the season with the greatest potential for chronic degraded water quality due to low river flow and high thermal stratification within the estuary (due to both higher average air temperature and PGS output). Water quality can be degraded in winter as well, when higher river discharge events bring large volumes of water from the Los Angeles basin into the estuary. The objectives of this project were to 1) collect hydrodynamic data along the SGR estuary; 2) study exchange processes within the estuary through analysis of the hydrodynamic data; and 3) provide field data for model calibration and validation. As the data only exist for the summer season, the results herein only apply to summer conditions.

Web processing service for climate impact and extreme weather event analyses. Flyingpigeon (Version 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hempelmann, Nils; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Brockmann, Patrick; Falk, Wolfgang; Hoffmann, Jörg; Kindermann, Stephan; Koziol, Ben; Nangini, Cathy; Radanovics, Sabine; Vautard, Robert; Yiou, Pascal

2018-01-01

Analyses of extreme weather events and their impacts often requires big data processing of ensembles of climate model simulations. Researchers generally proceed by downloading the data from the providers and processing the data files ;at home; with their own analysis processes. However, the growing amount of available climate model and observation data makes this procedure quite awkward. In addition, data processing knowledge is kept local, instead of being consolidated into a common resource of reusable code. These drawbacks can be mitigated by using a web processing service (WPS). A WPS hosts services such as data analysis processes that are accessible over the web, and can be installed close to the data archives. We developed a WPS named 'flyingpigeon' that communicates over an HTTP network protocol based on standards defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), to be used by climatologists and impact modelers as a tool for analyzing large datasets remotely. Here, we present the current processes we developed in flyingpigeon relating to commonly-used processes (preprocessing steps, spatial subsets at continent, country or region level, and climate indices) as well as methods for specific climate data analysis (weather regimes, analogues of circulation, segetal flora distribution, and species distribution models). We also developed a novel, browser-based interactive data visualization for circulation analogues, illustrating the flexibility of WPS in designing custom outputs. Bringing the software to the data instead of transferring the data to the code is becoming increasingly necessary, especially with the upcoming massive climate datasets.

The use of data-mining techniques for developing effective decisionsupport systems: A case study of simulating the effects ofclimate change on coastal salinity intrusion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Edwin Roehl, Jr.

2017-01-01

Natural-resource managers and stakeholders face difficult challenges when managing interactions between natural and societal systems. Potential changes in climate could alter interactions between environmental and societal systems and adversely affect the availability of water resources in many coastal communities. The availability of freshwater in coastal streams can be threatened by saltwater intrusion. Even though the collective interests and computer skills of the community of managers, scientists and other stakeholders are quite varied, there is an overarching need for equal access by all to the scientific knowledge needed to make the best possible decisions. This paper describes a decision support system, PRISM-2, developed to evaluate salinity intrusion due to potential climate change along the South Carolina coast in southeastern USA. The decision support system is disseminated as a spreadsheet application and integrates the output of global circulation models, watershed models and salinity intrusion models with real-time databases for simulation, graphical user interfaces, and streaming displays of results. The results from PRISM-2 showed that a 31-cm and 62-cm increase in sea level reduced the daily availability of freshwater supply to a coastal municipal intake by 4% and 12% of the time, respectively. Future climate change projections by a global circulation model showed a seasonal change in salinity intrusion events from the summer to the fall for the majority of events.

Improved Mars Upper Atmosphere Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougher, S. W.

2004-01-01

The detailed characterization of the Mars upper atmosphere is important for future Mars aerobraking activities. Solar cycle, seasonal, and dust trends (climate) as well as planetary wave activity (weather) are crucial to quantify in order to improve our ability to reasonably depict the state of the Mars upper atmosphere over time. To date, our best information is found in the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Accelerometer (ACC) database collected during Phase 1 (Ls = 184 - 300; F10.7 = 70 - 90) and Phase 2 (Ls = 30 - 90; F10.7 = 90 - 150) of aerobraking. This database (100 - 170 km) consists of thermospheric densities, temperatures, and scale heights, providing our best constraints for exercising the coupled Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) and the Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM). The Planetary Data System (PDS) contains level 0 and 2 MGS Accelerometer data, corresponding to atmospheric densities along the orbit track. Level 3 products (densities, temperatures, and scale heights at constant altitudes) are also available in the PDS. These datasets provide the primary model constraints for the new MGCM-MTGCM simulations summarized in this report. Our strategy for improving the characterization of the Mars upper atmospheres using these models has been three-fold : (a) to conduct data-model comparisons using the latest MGS data covering limited climatic and weather conditions at Mars, (b) to upgrade the 15-micron cooling and near-IR heating rates in the MGCM and MTGCM codes for ad- dressing climatic variations (solar cycle and seasonal) important in linking the lower and upper atmospheres (including migrating tides), and (c) to exercise the detailed coupled MGCM and MTGCM codes to capture and diagnose the planetary wave (migrating plus non-migrating tidal) features throughout the Mars year. Products from this new suite of MGCM-MTGCM coupled simulations are being used to improve our predictions of the structure of the Mars upper atmosphere for the upcoming MRO aerobraking exercises in 2006. A Michigan website, containing MTGCM output fields from previous climate simulations, is being expanded to include new MGCM-MTGCM simulations addressing planetary wave influences upon thermospheric aerobraking fields (densities and temperatures). In addition, similar MTGCM output fields have been supplied to the MSFC MARSGRAM - 200X empirical model, which will be used in mission operations for conducting aerobraking maneuvers.

Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Devashish; Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2015-07-01

Wind extremes have consequences for renewable energy sectors, critical infrastructures, coastal ecosystems, and insurance industry. Considerable debates remain regarding the impacts of climate change on wind extremes. While climate models have occasionally shown increases in regional wind extremes, a decline in the magnitude of mean and extreme near-surface wind speeds has been recently reported over most regions of the Northern Hemisphere using observed data. Previous studies of wind extremes under climate change have focused on selected regions and employed outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs ultimately rely on the outputs of global circulation models (GCMs), and the value-addition from the former over the latter has been questioned. Regional model runs rarely employ the full suite of GCM ensembles, and hence may not be able to encapsulate the most likely projections or their variability. Here we evaluate the performance of the latest generation of GCMs, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in simulating extreme winds. We find that the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean captures the spatial variability of annual maximum wind speeds over most regions except over the mountainous terrains. However, the historical temporal trends in annual maximum wind speeds for the reanalysis data, ERA-Interim, are not well represented in the GCMs. The historical trends in extreme winds from GCMs are statistically not significant over most regions. The MME model simulates the spatial patterns of extreme winds for 25-100 year return periods. The projected extreme winds from GCMs exhibit statistically less significant trends compared to the historical reference period.

Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

1998-03-01

Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

A Numerical Study of Nonlinear Nonhydrostatic Conditional Symmetric Instability in a Convectively Unstable Atmosphere.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seman, Charles J.

1994-06-01

Nonlinear nonhydrostatic conditional symmetric instability (CSI) is studied as an initial value problem using a two-dimensional (y, z)nonlinear, nonhydrostatic numerical mesoscale/cloud model. The initial atmosphere for the rotating, baroclinic (BCF) simulation contains large convective available potential energy (CAPE). Analytical theory, various model output diagnostics, and a companion nonrotating barotropic (BTNF) simulation are used to interpret the results from the BCF simulation. A single warm moist thermal initiates convection for the two 8-h simulations.The BCF simulation exhibited a very intricate life cycle. Following the initial convection, a series of discrete convective cells developed within a growing mesoscale circulation. Between hours 4 and 8, the circulation grew upscale into a structure resembling that of a squall-line mesoscale convective system (MCS). The mesoscale updrafts were nearly vertical and the circulation was strongest on the baroclinically cool side of the initial convection, as predicted by a two-dimensional Lagrangian parcel model of CSI with CAPE. The cool-side mesoscale circulation grew nearly exponentially over the last 5 h as it slowly propagated toward the warm air. Significant vertical transport of zonal momentum occurred in the (multicellular) convection that developed, resulting in local subgeostrophic zonal wind anomalies aloft. Over time, geostrophic adjustment acted to balance these anomalies. The system became warm core, with mesohigh pressure aloft and mesolow pressure at the surface. A positive zonal wind anomaly also formed downstream from the mesohigh.Analysis of the BCF simulation showed that convective momentum transport played a key role in the evolution of the simulated MCS, in that it fostered the development of the nonlinear CSI on mesoscale time scales. The vertical momentum transport in the initial deep convection generated a subgeostrophic zonal momentum anomaly aloft; the resulting imbalance in pressure gradient and Coriolis forces accelerated the meridional outflow toward the baroclinically cool side, transporting zonal momentum horizontally. The vertical (horizontal) momentum transport occurred on a convective (inertial) time scale. Taken together, the sloping convective updraft/cool side outflow represents the release of the CSI in the convectively unstable atmosphere. Further diagnostics showed that mass transports in the horizontal outflow branch ventilated the upper levels of the system, with enhanced mesoscale lifting in the core and on the leading edge of the MCS, which assisted in convective redevelopments on mesoscale time scales. Geostrophic adjustment acted to balance the convectively generated zonal momentum anomalies, thereby limiting the strength of the meridional outflow predicted by CSI theory. Circulation tendency diagnostics showed that the mesoscale circulation developed in response to thermal wind imbalances generated by the deep convection.Comparison of the BCF and BTNF simulations showed that baroclinicity enhanced mesoscale circulation growth. The BTNF circulation was more transient on mesoscale time and space scales. Overall, the BCF system produced more rainfall than the BTNF.Based on the present and past work in CSI theory, a new definition for the term `slantwise convection' is proposed.

A Study of Subseasonal Predictability of the Atmospheric Circulation Low-frequency Modes based on SL-AV forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruglova, Ekaterina; Kulikova, Irina; Khan, Valentina; Tischenko, Vladimir

2017-04-01

The subseasonal predictability of low-frequency modes and the atmospheric circulation regimes is investigated based on the using of outputs from global Semi-Lagrangian (SL-AV) model of the Hydrometcentre of Russia and Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Science. Teleconnection indices (AO, WA, EA, NAO, EU, WP, PNA) are used as the quantitative characteristics of low-frequency variability to identify zonal and meridional flow regimes with focus on control distribution of high impact weather patterns in the Northern Eurasia. The predictability of weekly and monthly averaged indices is estimated by the methods of diagnostic verification of forecast and reanalysis data covering the hindcast period, and also with the use of the recommended WMO quantitative criteria. Characteristics of the low frequency variability have been discussed. Particularly, it is revealed that the meridional flow regimes are reproduced by SL-AV for summer season better comparing to winter period. It is shown that the model's deterministic forecast (ensemble mean) skill at week 1 (days 1-7) is noticeably better than that of climatic forecasts. The decrease of skill scores at week 2 (days 8-14) and week 3( days 15-21) is explained by deficiencies in the modeling system and inaccurate initial conditions. It was noticed the slightly improvement of the skill of model at week 4 (days 22-28), when the condition of atmosphere is more determined by the flow of energy from the outside. The reliability of forecasts of monthly (days 1-30) averaged indices is comparable to that at week 1 (days 1-7). Numerical experiments demonstrated that the forecast accuracy can be improved (thus the limit of practical predictability can be extended) through the using of probabilistic approach based on ensemble forecasts. It is shown that the quality of forecasts of the regimes of circulation like blocking is higher, than that of zonal flow.

Satellite and Ocean Model Analysis of Thermal Conditions Affecting Coral Reefs in the Western Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez Delgado, Z.; Ummenhofer, C.; Swales, D. J.

2016-02-01

Corals are thought to be one of the smallest yet most productive ecosystems in the world. They have great economic and ecological value, but are increasingly affected by anthropogenic, biological and physical threats, such as a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification due to an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, among other factors. Here, specific events are investigated that likely exerted significant stress on corals, focusing particularly on unusual climatic conditions in the Western Indian Ocean during the 2001 to 2007 period as reflected by anomalies in degree heating weeks, hotspots and SST. Anomalous conditions in subsurface temperatures and mixed layer depth across the Indian Ocean region are also examined. We do this by using monthly, year-to-date, and annual composites of twice-weekly 50-km satellite coral bleaching monitoring products from the NOAA Coral Reef Watch and complementing it with output from a high-resolution global ocean model hindcast (1948-2007) forced with observed atmospheric forcing. Two years stand out in our analysis for the satellite data and model output: 2003 and 2005 exhibit strong warming in the Western Indian Ocean and cooling in the East. To establish the physical mechanisms giving rise to the unusual conditions and hotspot origins in 2003 and 2005 we also evaluate regional circulation changes in the Western Indian Ocean.

The Lick Observatory image-dissector scanner.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, L. B.; Wampler, E. J.

1972-01-01

A scanner that uses an image dissector to scan the output screen of an image tube has proven to be a sensitive and linear detector for faint astronomical spectra. The image-tube phosphor screen acts as a short-term storage element and allows the system to approach the performance of an ideal multichannel photon counter. Pulses resulting from individual photons, emitted from the output phosphor and detected by the image dissector, trigger an amplifier-discriminator and are counted in a 24-bit, 4096-word circulating memory. Aspects of system performance are discussed, giving attention to linearity, dynamic range, sensitivity, stability, and scattered light properties.

Apparatus and method for measurement of weak optical absorptions by thermally induced laser pulsing

DOEpatents

Cremers, D.A.; Keller, R.A.

1982-06-08

The thermal lensing phenomenon is used as the basis for measurement of weak optical absorptions when a cell containing the sample to be investigated is inserted into a normally continuous-wave operation laser-pumped dye laser cavity for which the output coupler is deliberately tilted relative to intracavity circulating laser light, and pulsed laser output ensues, the pulsewidth of which can be rlated to the sample absorptivity by a simple algorithm or calibration curve. A minimum detection limit of less than 10/sup -5/ cm/sup -1/ has been demonstrated using this technique.

Apparatus and method for measurement of weak optical absorptions by thermally induced laser pulsing

DOEpatents

Cremers, D.A.; Keller, R.A.

1985-10-01

The thermal lensing phenomenon is used as the basis for measurement of weak optical absorptions when a cell containing the sample to be investigated is inserted into a normally continuous-wave operation laser-pumped dye laser cavity for which the output coupler is deliberately tilted relative to intracavity circulating laser light, and pulsed laser output ensues, the pulsewidth of which can be related to the sample absorptivity by a simple algorithm or calibration curve. A minimum detection limit of less than 10[sup [minus]5] cm[sup [minus]1] has been demonstrated using this technique. 6 figs.

Apparatus and method for measurement of weak optical absorptions by thermally induced laser pulsing

DOEpatents

Cremers, David A.; Keller, Richard A.

1985-01-01

The thermal lensing phenomenon is used as the basis for measurement of weak optical absorptions when a cell containing the sample to be investigated is inserted into a normally continuous-wave operation laser-pumped dye laser cavity for which the output coupler is deliberately tilted relative to intracavity circulating laser light, and pulsed laser output ensues, the pulsewidth of which can be related to the sample absorptivity by a simple algorithm or calibration curve. A minimum detection limit of less than 10.sup.-5 cm.sup.-1 has been demonstrated using this technique.

Assessment of the Suitability of High Resolution Numerical Weather Model Outputs for Hydrological Modelling in Mountainous Cold Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Hayashi, M.; Fang, X.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

The hydrology of mountainous cold regions has a large spatial variability that is driven both by climate variability and near-surface process variability associated with complex terrain and patterns of vegetation, soils, and hydrogeology. There is a need to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulations towards the fine scales that cold regions hydrological processes operate at to assess their spatial variability in complex terrain and quantify uncertainties by comparison to field observations. In this research, three high resolution numerical weather prediction models, namely, the Intermediate Complexity Atmosphere Research (ICAR), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models are used to represent spatial and temporal patterns of atmospheric conditions appropriate for hydrological modelling. An area covering high mountains and foothills of the Canadian Rockies was selected to assess and compare high resolution ICAR (1 km × 1 km), WRF (4 km × 4 km), and GEM (2.5 km × 2.5 km) model outputs with station-based meteorological measurements. ICAR with very low computational cost was run with different initial and boundary conditions and with finer spatial resolution, which allowed an assessment of modelling uncertainty and scaling that was difficult with WRF. Results show that ICAR, when compared with WRF and GEM, performs very well in precipitation and air temperature modelling in the Canadian Rockies, while all three models show a fair performance in simulating wind and humidity fields. Representation of local-scale atmospheric dynamics leading to realistic fields of temperature and precipitation by ICAR, WRF, and GEM makes these models suitable for high resolution cold regions hydrological predictions in complex terrain, which is a key factor in estimating water security in western Canada.

Emergy evaluation of water utilization benefits in water-ecological-economic system based on water cycle process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, X.; Wu, Z.; Lv, C.

2017-12-01

The water utilization benefits are formed by the material flow, energy flow, information flow and value stream in the whole water cycle process, and reflected along with the material circulation of inner system. But most of traditional water utilization benefits evaluation are based on the macro level, only consider the whole material input and output and energy conversion relation, and lack the characterization of water utilization benefits accompanying with water cycle process from the formation mechanism. In addition, most studies are from the perspective of economics, only pay attention to the whole economic output and sewage treatment economic investment, but neglect the ecological function benefits of water cycle, Therefore, from the perspective of internal material circulation in the whole system, taking water cycle process as the process of material circulation and energy flow, the circulation and flow process of water and other ecological environment, social economic elements were described, and the composition of water utilization positive and negative benefits in water-ecological-economic system was explored, and the performance of each benefit was analyzed. On this basis, the emergy calculation method of each benefit was proposed by emergy quantitative analysis technique, which can realize the unified measurement and evaluation of water utilization benefits in water-ecological-economic system. Then, taking Zhengzhou city as an example, the corresponding benefits of different water cycle links were calculated quantitatively by emergy method, and the results showed that the emergy evaluation method of water utilization benefits can unify the ecosystem and the economic system, achieve uniform quantitative analysis, and measure the true value of natural resources and human economic activities comprehensively.

Computational modeling of cardiovascular response to orthostatic stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heldt, Thomas; Shim, Eun B.; Kamm, Roger D.; Mark, Roger G.

2002-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a model of the cardiovascular system capable of simulating the short-term (< or = 5 min) transient and steady-state hemodynamic responses to head-up tilt and lower body negative pressure. The model consists of a closed-loop lumped-parameter representation of the circulation connected to set-point models of the arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreflexes. Model parameters are largely based on literature values. Model verification was performed by comparing the simulation output under baseline conditions and at different levels of orthostatic stress to sets of population-averaged hemodynamic data reported in the literature. On the basis of experimental evidence, we adjusted some model parameters to simulate experimental data. Orthostatic stress simulations are not statistically different from experimental data (two-sided test of significance with Bonferroni adjustment for multiple comparisons). Transient response characteristics of heart rate to tilt also compare well with reported data. A case study is presented on how the model is intended to be used in the future to investigate the effects of post-spaceflight orthostatic intolerance.

Electrical Lumped Model Examination for Load Variation of Circulation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koya, Yoshiharu; Ito, Mitsuyo; Mizoshiri, Isao

Modeling and analysis of the circulation system enables the characteristic decision of circulation system in the body to be made. So, many models of circulation system have been proposed. But, they are complicated because the models include a lot of elements. Therefore, we proposed a complete circulation model as a lumped electrical circuit, which is comparatively simple. In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of the complete circulation model as a lumped electrical circuit. We use normal, angina pectoris, dilated cardiomyopathy and myocardial infarction for evaluation of the ventricular contraction function.

Power Output Stability Research for Harvesting Automobile Exhaust Energy with Heat Capacity Material as Intermediate Medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Longjie; He, Tianming; Mei, Binyu; Wang, Yiping; Wang, Zongsong; Tan, Gangfeng

2018-01-01

Automobile exhaust energy thermoelectric utilization can promote energy-saving and emission-reduction. Unexpected urban traffic conditions lead to the hot-end temperature instability of the exhaust pipe-mounted thermoelectric generator (TEG), and influence the TEG power generation efficiency. The heat conduction oil circulation located at the hot-end could smooth the temperature fluctuation, at the expense of larger system size and additional energy supply. This research improves the TEG hot-end temperature stability by installing solid heat capacity material (SHCM) to the area between the outer wall of the exhaust pipe and the TEG, which has the merits of simple structure, light weight and no additional energy consumption. The exhaust temperature and flow rate characteristics with various driving conditions are firstly studied for the target engine. Then the convective heat transfer models of SHCM's hot-end and thermoelectric material's cold-end are established. Meanwhile, SHCM thermal properties' effects on the amplitude and response speed of the TEG hot-end temperature are studied. The candidate SHCM with the characteristics of low thermal resistance and high heat capacity is determined. And the heat transfer model going through from TEG's hot-end to the cold-end is established. The results show that the SHCM significantly improves the TEG hot-end temperature stability but slightly reduces the average power output. When the engine working conditions change a lot, the SHCM's improvement on the TEG hot-end temperature stability is more significant, but the reduction of the average power output becomes more remarkable.

Parcels v0.9: prototyping a Lagrangian ocean analysis framework for the petascale age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Michael; van Sebille, Erik

2017-11-01

As ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) move into the petascale age, where the output of single simulations exceeds petabytes of storage space, tools to analyse the output of these models will need to scale up too. Lagrangian ocean analysis, where virtual particles are tracked through hydrodynamic fields, is an increasingly popular way to analyse OGCM output, by mapping pathways and connectivity of biotic and abiotic particulates. However, the current software stack of Lagrangian ocean analysis codes is not dynamic enough to cope with the increasing complexity, scale and need for customization of use-cases. Furthermore, most community codes are developed for stand-alone use, making it a nontrivial task to integrate virtual particles at runtime of the OGCM. Here, we introduce the new Parcels code, which was designed from the ground up to be sufficiently scalable to cope with petascale computing. We highlight its API design that combines flexibility and customization with the ability to optimize for HPC workflows, following the paradigm of domain-specific languages. Parcels is primarily written in Python, utilizing the wide range of tools available in the scientific Python ecosystem, while generating low-level C code and using just-in-time compilation for performance-critical computation. We show a worked-out example of its API, and validate the accuracy of the code against seven idealized test cases. This version 0.9 of Parcels is focused on laying out the API, with future work concentrating on support for curvilinear grids, optimization, efficiency and at-runtime coupling with OGCMs.

Power Output Stability Research for Harvesting Automobile Exhaust Energy with Heat Capacity Material as Intermediate Medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Longjie; He, Tianming; Mei, Binyu; Wang, Yiping; Wang, Zongsong; Tan, Gangfeng

2018-06-01

Automobile exhaust energy thermoelectric utilization can promote energy-saving and emission-reduction. Unexpected urban traffic conditions lead to the hot-end temperature instability of the exhaust pipe-mounted thermoelectric generator (TEG), and influence the TEG power generation efficiency. The heat conduction oil circulation located at the hot-end could smooth the temperature fluctuation, at the expense of larger system size and additional energy supply. This research improves the TEG hot-end temperature stability by installing solid heat capacity material (SHCM) to the area between the outer wall of the exhaust pipe and the TEG, which has the merits of simple structure, light weight and no additional energy consumption. The exhaust temperature and flow rate characteristics with various driving conditions are firstly studied for the target engine. Then the convective heat transfer models of SHCM's hot-end and thermoelectric material's cold-end are established. Meanwhile, SHCM thermal properties' effects on the amplitude and response speed of the TEG hot-end temperature are studied. The candidate SHCM with the characteristics of low thermal resistance and high heat capacity is determined. And the heat transfer model going through from TEG's hot-end to the cold-end is established. The results show that the SHCM significantly improves the TEG hot-end temperature stability but slightly reduces the average power output. When the engine working conditions change a lot, the SHCM's improvement on the TEG hot-end temperature stability is more significant, but the reduction of the average power output becomes more remarkable.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2017-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation. PMID:28782014

Hydrological impacts of climate change on the Tejo and Guadiana Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilsby, C. G.; Tellier, S. S.; Fowler, H. J.; Howels, T. R.

2007-05-01

A distributed daily rainfall runoff model is applied to the Tejo and Guadiana river basins in Spain and Portugal to simulate the effects of climate change on runoff production, river flows and water resource availability with results aggregated to the monthly level. The model is calibrated, validated and then used for a series of climate change impact assessments for the period 2070 2100. Future scenarios are derived from the HadRM3H regional climate model (RCM) using two techniques: firstly a bias-corrected RCM output, with monthly mean correction factors calculated from observed rainfall records; and, secondly, a circulation-pattern-based stochastic rainfall model. Major reductions in rainfall and streamflow are projected throughout the year; these results differ from those for previous studies where winter increases are projected. Despite uncertainties in the representation of heavily managed river systems, the projected impacts are serious and pose major threats to the maintenance of bipartite water treaties between Spain and Portugal and the supply of water to urban and rural regions of Portugal.

Computer program documentation for a subcritical wing design code using higher order far-field drag minimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhlman, J. M.; Shu, J. Y.

1981-01-01

A subsonic, linearized aerodynamic theory, wing design program for one or two planforms was developed which uses a vortex lattice near field model and a higher order panel method in the far field. The theoretical development of the wake model and its implementation in the vortex lattice design code are summarized and sample results are given. Detailed program usage instructions, sample input and output data, and a program listing are presented in the Appendixes. The far field wake model assumes a wake vortex sheet whose strength varies piecewise linearly in the spanwise direction. From this model analytical expressions for lift coefficient, induced drag coefficient, pitching moment coefficient, and bending moment coefficient were developed. From these relationships a direct optimization scheme is used to determine the optimum wake vorticity distribution for minimum induced drag, subject to constraints on lift, and pitching or bending moment. Integration spanwise yields the bound circulation, which is interpolated in the near field vortex lattice to obtain the design camber surface(s).

Simulating Freshwater Availability under Future Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Zeng, N.; Motesharrei, S.; Gustafson, K. C.; Rivas, J.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.; Kalnay, E.

2013-12-01

Freshwater availability is a key factor for regional development. Precipitation, evaporation, river inflow and outflow are the major terms in the estimate of regional water supply. In this study, we aim to obtain a realistic estimate for these variables from 1901 to 2100. First we calculated the ensemble mean precipitation using the 2011-2100 RCP4.5 output (re-sampled to half-degree spatial resolution) from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The projections are then combined with the half-degree 1901-2010 Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS3.2 dataset after bias correction. We then used the combined data to drive our UMD Earth System Model (ESM), in order to generate evaporation and runoff. We also developed a River-Routing Scheme based on the idea of Taikan Oki, as part of the ESM. It is capable of calculating river inflow and outflow for any region, driven by the gridded runoff output. River direction and slope information from Global Dominant River Tracing (DRT) dataset are included in our scheme. The effects of reservoirs/dams are parameterized based on a few simple factors such as soil moisture, population density and geographic regions. Simulated river flow is validated with river gauge measurements for the world's major rivers. We have applied our river flow calculation to two data-rich watersheds in the United States: Phoenix AMA watershed and the Potomac River Basin. The results are used in our SImple WAter model (SIWA) to explore water management options.

Experiments on solar photovoltaic power generation using concentrator and liquid cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beam, B. H.; Hansen, C. F.

1975-01-01

Calculations and experimental data are presented leading to the development of a practical, economical solar photovoltaic power supply. The concept involves concentration of sunlight up to about 100 times normal solar intensity in a solar tracking collector and directing this to an array of solar cells. The cells are immersed in water circulated from a thermal reservoir which limits cell temperature rise to about 20 C above ambient during the day and which cools to ambient temperature during the night. Experiments were conducted on solar cells using a Fresnel lens for magnification, a telescope equatorial mount with clock drive, and tap water circulated through the solar cell holder cavity. Test results show that cells operate satisfactorily under these conditions. Power outputs achieved experimentally with cell optimized for 25 suns were linear with concentration to about 15 suns. Cells optimized for 100 suns were not available, but a corresponding linear relation of power output with concentration is anticipated. Test results have been used in a design analysis of the cost of systems utilizing this technique.

Estimation of climate change impact on dead fuel moisture at local scale by using weather generators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Bortolu, Sara; Dubrovsky, Martin; Arca, Bachisio; Ventura, Andrea; Duce, Pierpaolo

2015-04-01

The moisture content of dead fuel is an important variable in fire ignition and fire propagation. Moisture exchange in dead materials is controlled by physical processes, and is clearly dependent on atmospheric changes. According to projections of future climate in Southern Europe, changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme events are expected. More prolonged drought seasons could influence fuel moisture content and, consequently, the number of days characterized by high ignition danger in Mediterranean ecosystems. The low resolution of the climate data provided by the general circulation models (GCMs) represents a limitation for evaluating climate change impacts at local scale. For this reason, the climate research community has called to develop appropriate downscaling techniques. One of the downscaling approaches, which transform the raw outputs from the climate models (GCMs or RCMs) into data with more realistic structure, is based on linking a stochastic weather generator with the climate model outputs. Weather generators linked to climate change scenarios can therefore be used to create synthetic weather series (air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation) representing present and future climates at local scale. The main aims of this work are to identify useful tools to determine potential impacts of expected climate change on dead fuel status in Mediterranean shrubland and, in particular, to estimate the effect of climate changes on the number of days characterized by critical values of dead fuel moisture. Measurements of dead fuel moisture content (FMC) in Mediterranean shrubland were performed by using humidity sensors in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for six years. Meteorological variables were also recorded. Data were used to determine the accuracy of the Canadian Fine Fuels Moisture Code (FFM code) in modelling moisture dynamics of dead fuel in Mediterranean vegetation. Critical threshold values of FFM code for Mediterranean climate were identified by percentile analysis, and new fuel moisture code classes were also defined. A stochastic weather generator (M&Rfi), linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs), was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Western Sardinia, Italy. The number of days with critical FFM code values for present and future climate were calculated and the potential impact of future climate change was analysed.

Input and output budgets of radiocesium concerning the forest floor in the mountain forest of Fukushima released from the TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident.

PubMed

Niizato, Tadafumi; Abe, Hironobu; Mitachi, Katsuaki; Sasaki, Yoshito; Ishii, Yasuo; Watanabe, Takayoshi

2016-09-01

Estimations of radiocesium input and output concerning the forest floor within a mountain forest region have been conducted in the north and central part of the Abukuma Mountains of Fukushima, northeast Japan, after a 2-3 year period following the TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. The radiocesium input and output associated with surface washoff, throughfall, stemflow, and litterfall processes at experimental plots installed on the forest floor of evergreen Japanese cedars and deciduous Konara oaks have been monitored. Despite the high output potential in the mountainous forest of Fukushima, the results at both monitoring locations show the radiocesium input to be 4-50 times higher than the output during the summer monsoon in Fukushima. These results indicate that the radiocesium tends to be preserved in the forest ecosystem due to extremely low output ratios (0.05%-0.19%). Thus, the associated fluxes throughout the circulation process are key issues for the projecting the environmental fate of the radiocesium levels, along with the subsequent reconstruction of life emphasized within the setting. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Design, manufacture, and test of coolant pump-motor assembly for Brayton power conversion system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gabacz, L. E.

1973-01-01

The design, development, fabrication, and testing of seven coolant circulating pump-motor assemblies are discussed. The pump-motor assembly is driven by the nominal 44.4-volt, 400-Hz, 3-phase output of a nominal 56-volt dc input inverter. The pump-motor assembly will be used to circulate Dow Corning 200 liquid coolant for use in a Brayton cycle space power system. The pump-motor assembly develops a nominal head of 70 psi at 3.7 gpm with an over-all efficiency of 26 percent. The design description, drawings, photographs, reliability results, and developmental and acceptance test results are included.

Juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles linked to decadal changes in ocean circulation.

PubMed

Ascani, François; Van Houtan, Kyle S; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Jones, T Todd

2016-11-01

Given the threats of climate change, understanding the relationship of climate with long-term population dynamics is critical for wildlife conservation. Previous studies have linked decadal climate oscillations to indices of juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), but without a clear understanding of mechanisms. Here, we explore the underlying processes that may explain these relationships. Using the eddy-resolving Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator, we generate hatch-year trajectories for loggerhead turtles emanating from Japan over six decades (1950-2010). We find that the proximity of the high-velocity Kuroshio Current to the primary nesting areas in southern Japan is remarkably stable and that hatchling dispersal to oceanic habitats itself does not vary on decadal timescales. However, we observe a shift in latitudes of trajectories, consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In a negative PDO phase, the Kuroshio Extension Current (KEC) is strong and acts as a physical barrier to the northward transport of neonates. As a result, hatch-year trajectories remain mostly below 35°N in the warm, unproductive region south of the Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front (TZCF). During a positive PDO phase, however, the KEC weakens facilitating the neonates to swim north of the TZCF into cooler and more productive waters. As a result, annual cohorts from negative PDO years may face a lack of resources, whereas cohorts from positive PDO years may find sufficient resources during their pivotal first year. These model outputs indicate that the ocean circulation dynamics, combined with navigational swimming behavior, may be a key factor in the observed decadal variability of sea turtle populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

ADCIRC: An Advanced Three-Dimensional Circulation Model for Shelves, Coasts, and Estuaries. Report 5. A Tropical Storm Database for the East and Gulf of Mexico Coasts of the United States.

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-08-01

paring the output of 134 events to observed data at hundreds of locations was beyond the scope, in both time and cost , of this project. However, as...40.054 40.054 4056 40.0554-.64 40.0% 4.054 -. 0544-.0574-.057 -0.057 _C0111 -0.03B 4.0590.059 40.059 40.0ŝ -L.05 - cost 4.0540.059 40.4p-4.09 -0.059...B28 Appnchx B Historc Stiom Event Tr~dks HURRICANE 241 NOT NAMED 9/16/1920 ඣ 90 e4 Appenix B Historic Slo"m Evnt Tracks B29 HURRICANE 219 NOT NAMED

Assessing the vertical structure of baroclinic tidal currents in a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timko, Patrick; Arbic, Brian; Scott, Robert

2010-05-01

Tidal forcing plays an important role in many aspects of oceanography. Mixing, transport of particulates and internal wave generation are just three examples of local phenomena that may depend on the strength of local tidal currents. Advances in satellite altimetry have made an assessment of the global barotropic tide possible. However, the vertical structure of the tide may only be observed by deployment of instruments throughout the water column. Typically these observations are conducted at pre-determined depths based upon the interest of the observer. The high cost of such observations often limits both the number and the length of the observations resulting in a limit to our knowledge of the vertical structure of tidal currents. One way to expand our insight into the baroclinic structure of the ocean is through the use of numerical models. We compare the vertical structure of the global baroclinic tidal velocities in 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) to a global database of current meter records. The model output is a subset of a 5 year global simulation that resolves the eddying general circulation, barotropic tides and baroclinic tides using 32 vertical layers. The density structure within the simulation is both vertically and horizontally non-uniform. In addition to buoyancy forcing the model is forced by astronomical tides and winds. We estimate the dominant semi-diurnal (M2), and diurnal (K1) tidal constituents of the model data using classical harmonic analysis. In regions where current meter record coverage is adequate, the model skill in replicating the vertical structure of the dominant diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal currents is assessed based upon the strength, orientation and phase of the tidal ellipses. We also present a global estimate of the baroclinic tidal energy at fixed depths estimated from the model output.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

2018-04-01

In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

Eddy energy sources and mesoscale eddies in the Sea of Okhotsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, Dmitry V.; Diansky, Nikolay A.; Fomin, Vladimir V.

2018-05-01

Based on eddy-permitting ocean circulation model outputs, the mesoscale variability is studied in the Sea of Okhotsk. We confirmed that the simulated circulation reproduces the main features of the general circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk. In particular, it reproduced a complex structure of the East-Sakhalin current and the pronounced seasonal variability of this current. We established that the maximum of mean kinetic energy was associated with the East-Sakhalin Current. In order to uncover causes and mechanisms of the mesoscale variability, we studied the budget of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Sea of Okhotsk. Spatial distribution of the EKE showed that intensive mesoscale variability occurs along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk, where the East-Sakhalin Current extends. We revealed a pronounced seasonal variability of EKE with its maximum intensity in winter and its minimum intensity in summer. Analysis of EKE sources and rates of energy conversion revealed a leading role of time-varying (turbulent) wind stress in the generation of mesoscale variability along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk in winter and spring. We established that a contribution of baroclinic instability predominates over that of barotropic instability in the generation of mesoscale variability along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk. To demonstrate the mechanism of baroclinic instability, the simulated circulation was considered along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk from January to April 2005. In April, the mesoscale anticyclonic eddies are observed along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk. The role of the sea ice cover in the intensification of the mesoscale variability in the Sea of Okhotsk was discussed.

Statistical Perspectives on Stratospheric Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sparling, L. C.

1999-01-01

Long-lived tropospheric source gases, such as nitrous oxide, enter the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, are transported throughout the stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and are photochemically destroyed in the upper stratosphere. These chemical constituents, or "tracers" can be used to track mixing and transport by the stratospheric winds. Much of our understanding about the stratospheric circulation is based on large scale gradients and other spatial features in tracer fields constructed from satellite measurements. The point of view presented in this paper is different, but complementary, in that transport is described in terms of tracer probability distribution functions (PDFs). The PDF is computed from the measurements, and is proportional to the area occupied by tracer values in a given range. The flavor of this paper is tutorial, and the ideas are illustrated with several examples of transport-related phenomena, annotated with remarks that summarize the main point or suggest new directions. One example shows how the multimodal shape of the PDF gives information about the different branches of the circulation. Another example shows how the statistics of fluctuations from the most probable tracer value give insight into mixing between different regions of the atmosphere. Also included is an analysis of the time-dependence of the PDF during the onset and decline of the winter circulation, and a study of how "bursts" in the circulation are reflected in transient periods of rapid evolution of the PDF. The dependence of the statistics on location and time are also shown to be important for practical problems related to statistical robustness and satellite sampling. The examples illustrate how physically-based statistical analysis can shed some light on aspects of stratospheric transport that may not be obvious or quantifiable with other types of analyses. An important motivation for the work presented here is the need for synthesis of the large and growing database of observations of the atmosphere and the vast quantities of output generated by atmospheric models.

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butchart, Neal; Anstey, James A.; Hamilton, Kevin; Osprey, Scott; McLandress, Charles; Bushell, Andrew C.; Kawatani, Yoshio; Kim, Young-Ha; Lott, Francois; Scinocca, John; Stockdale, Timothy N.; Andrews, Martin; Bellprat, Omar; Braesicke, Peter; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Chen, Chih-Chieh; Chun, Hye-Yeong; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Garcia, Rolando R.; Garcia-Serrano, Javier; Gray, Lesley J.; Holt, Laura; Kerzenmacher, Tobias; Naoe, Hiroaki; Pohlmann, Holger; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Scaife, Adam A.; Schenzinger, Verena; Serva, Federico; Versick, Stefan; Watanabe, Shingo; Yoshida, Kohei; Yukimoto, Seiji

2018-03-01

The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) aims to improve the fidelity of tropical stratospheric variability in general circulation and Earth system models by conducting coordinated numerical experiments and analysis. In the equatorial stratosphere, the QBO is the most conspicuous mode of variability. Five coordinated experiments have therefore been designed to (i) evaluate and compare the verisimilitude of modelled QBOs under present-day conditions, (ii) identify robustness (or alternatively the spread and uncertainty) in the simulated QBO response to commonly imposed changes in model climate forcings (e.g. a doubling of CO2 amounts), and (iii) examine model dependence of QBO predictability. This paper documents these experiments and the recommended output diagnostics. The rationale behind the experimental design and choice of diagnostics is presented. To facilitate scientific interpretation of the results in other planned QBOi studies, consistent descriptions of the models performing each experiment set are given, with those aspects particularly relevant for simulating the QBO tabulated for easy comparison.

An oil-based model of inhalation anesthetic uptake and elimination.

PubMed

Loughlin, P J; Bowes, W A; Westenskow, D R

1989-08-01

An oil-based model was developed as a physical simulation of inhalation anesthetic uptake and elimination. It provides an alternative to animal models in testing the performance of anesthesia equipment. A 7.5-1 water-filled manometer simulates pulmonary mechanics. Nitrogen and carbon dioxide flowing into the manometer simulate oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production. Oil-filled chambers (180 ml and 900 ml) simulate the uptake and washout of halothane by the vessel-rich and muscle tissue groups. A 17.2-1 air-filled chamber simulates uptake by the lung group. Gas circulates through the chambers (3.7, 13.8, and 25 l/min) to simulate the transport of anesthetic to the tissues by the circulatory system. Results show that during induction and washout, the rate of rise in endtidal halothane fraction simulated by the model parallels that measured in patients. The model's end-tidal fraction changes correctly with changes in cardiac output and alveolar ventilation. The model has been used to test anesthetic controllers and to evaluate gas sensors, and should be useful in teaching principles underlying volatile anesthetic uptake.

Downscaling of Global Climate Change Estimates to Regional Scales: An Application to Iberian Rainfall in Wintertime.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Cubasch, Ulrich

1993-06-01

A statistical strategy to deduct regional-scale features from climate general circulation model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to interrelate the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of large-scale atmospheric flow using the canonical correlation technique.The large-scale North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) is related to the regional, variable, winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to a good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to present from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. It is shown that this observed relationship between these two variables is not well reproduced in the output of a general circulation model (GCM).The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous `2 C02' doubling experiment, using the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field to predict Iberian rainfall yields, there is an insignificant increase of area-averaged rainfall of 1 mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the peninsula. In contrast, for the four GCM grid points representing the Iberian Peninsula, the change is 10 mm/month, with a minimum of 19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A ("business as usual") increase Of C02, the statistical-model results partially differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: in the experimental range of 100 years, the area-averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model), and by 9 mm/month (GCM); at the same time the amplitude of the interdecadal variability is quite different.

Understanding and Portraying the Global Atmospheric Circulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrington, John, Jr.; Oliver, John E.

2000-01-01

Examines teaching models of atmospheric circulation and resultant surface pressure patterns, focusing on the three-cell model and the meaning of meridional circulation as related to middle and high latitudes. Addresses the failure of the three-cell model to explain seasonal variations in atmospheric circulation. Suggests alternative models. (CMK)

Dielectric-loaded waveguide circulator for cryogenically cooled and cascaded maser waveguide structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clauss, R. C.; Quinn, R. B. (Inventor)

1980-01-01

A dielectrically loaded four port waveguide circulator is used with a reflected wave maser connected to a second port between first and third ports to form one of a plurality of cascaded maser waveguide structures. The fourth port is connected to a waveguide loaded with microwave energy absorbing material. The third (output signal) port of one maser waveguide structure is connected by a waveguide loaded with dielectric material to the first (input) port of an adjacent maser waveguide structure, and the second port is connected to a reflected wave maser by a matching transformer which passes the signal to be amplified into and out of the reflected wavemaser and blocks pumping energy in the reflected wave maser from entering the circulator. A number of cascaded maser waveguide structures are thus housed in a relatively small volume of conductive material placed within a cryogenically cooled magnet assembly.

Doppler radar with multiphase modulation of transmitted and reflected signal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shores, Paul W. (Inventor); Griffin, John W. (Inventor); Kobayashi, Herbert S. (Inventor)

1989-01-01

A microwave radar signal is generated and split by a circulator. A phase shifter introduces a series of phase shifts into a first part of the split signal which is then transmitted by antenna. A like number of phase shifts is introduced by the phase shifter into the return signal from the target. The circulator delivers the phase shifted return signal and the leakage signal from the circulator to a mixer which generates an IF signal output at the Doppler frequency. The IF signal is amplified, filtered, counted per unit of time, and the result displayed to provide indications of target sense and range rate. An oscillator controls rate of phase shift in the transmitted and received radar signals and provides a time base for the counter. The phase shift magnitude increases may be continuous and linear or discrete functions of time.

(Neuro)transmitter systems in circulating immune cells: a target of immunopharmacological interventions?

PubMed

Tayebati, Seyed Khosrow; Amenta, Francesco

2008-01-01

Increasing evidence indicates the existence of an association between nervous and immune systems. The two systems communicate with each-other to maintain immune homeostasis. Activated immune cells secrete cytokines that influence central nervous system activity. Nervous system, through its peripheral and/or autonomic divisions activates output regulating levels of immune cell activity and the subsequent magnitude of an immune response. On the other hand, neurotransmitters, which represent the main substances involved in nerve cell communications, can influence immune function. Immune organs and circulating immune cells express several (neuro)transmitter systems that can be involved in regulating their activity. The expression of neurotransmitter systems by different subsets of circulating immune cells was reviewed. The regulatory role of different families of (neuro)transmitters (catecholamines, 5-hydroxytryptamine, acetylcholine, histamine and neuropeptides) in modulating levels of immune mediators or specific immune responses is discussed.

Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2018-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

Interaction between the tidal and seasonal variability of the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith; Lu, Youyu; Loder, John

2017-04-01

In the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf (off the northeastern coast of North America) tides are large and can alter the local hydrographic properties, circulation, and sea surface height through processes such as tidal rectification, mixing, and horizontal advection. Furthermore, the stratification of the water column can influence tidal elevation and currents over the shelves (e.g., baroclinic tides). To investigate this interaction, a newly developed high resolution (1/36 degree) regional circulation model is used (GoMSS model). First, numerical experiments with and without density stratification are used to demonstrate the influence of stratification on the tides. GoMSS model is then used to interpret the physical mechanisms responsible for the largest seasonal variations in the M2 surface current which occur over, and to the north of, Georges Bank. An alternating pattern of highs and lows in the summer maximum M2 surface speed in the Gulf of Maine is identified, for the first time, in both the model output and observations by a high frequency coastal radar system. This pattern consists of extended striations in tidal speed aligned with the northern flank of Georges Bank that separates the Gulf of Maine from the North Atlantic. The striations are explained in terms of a linear superposition of the barotropic tide flowing across the northern flank of Georges Bank and the reflected, phase-locked baroclinic tide. The striations have amplitudes of about 0.1 m/s and longitudinal length scales of order 100 km, and are thus of practical significance.

Regional modeling of the water masses and circulation annual variability at the Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendonça, L. F.; Souza, R. B.; Aseff, C. R. C.; Pezzi, L. P.; Möller, O. O.; Alves, R. C. M.

2017-02-01

The Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf (SBCS) is one of the more productive areas for fisheries in Brazilian waters. The water masses and the dynamical processes of the region present a very seasonal behavior that imprint strong effects in the ecosystem and the weather of the area and its vicinity. This paper makes use of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for studying the water mass distribution and circulation variability in the SBCS during the year of 2012. Model outputs were compared to in situ, historical observations and to satellite data. The model was able to reproduce the main thermohaline characteristics of the waters dominating the SBCS and the adjacent region. The mixing between the Subantarctic Shelf Water and the Subtropical Shelf Water, known as the Subtropical Shelf Front (STSF), presented a clear seasonal change in volume. As a consequence of the mixing and of the seasonal oscillation of the STSF position, the stability of the water column inside the SBCS also changes seasonally. Current velocities and associated transports estimated for the Brazil Current (BC) and for the Brazilian Coastal Current (BCC) agree with previous measurements and estimates, stressing the fact that the opposite flow of the BCC occurring during winter in the study region is about 2 orders of magnitude smaller than that of the BC. Seasonal maps of simulated Mean Kinetic Energy and Eddy Kinetic Energy demonstrate the known behavior of the BC and stressed the importance of the mean coastal flow off Argentina throughout the year.

Development of an infrared analyzer following the

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

A radar calibration subsystem for measuring the radar backscattering characteristics of an imaged terrain is described. To achieve the required accuracy for the backscattering coefficient measurement (about 2 dB with 80 percent confidence), the space hardware design includes a means of monitoring the state parameters of the radar. For example, the transmitter output power is sampled and a replica of its output waveform is circulated through the receiver. These are recorded digitally and are used on the ground to determine such radar parameters as the transmitter power and the receiver gain. This part of the data is needed by the ground processor to measure the terrain backscattering characteristics.

Venous Return and Clinical Hemodynamics: How the Body Works during Acute Hemorrhage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shen, Tao; Baker, Keith

2015-01-01

Venous return is a major determinant of cardiac output. Adjustments within the venous system are critical for maintaining venous pressure during loss in circulating volume. This article reviews two factors that are thought to enable the venous system to compensate during acute hemorrhage: 1) changes in venous elastance and 2) mobilization of…

Defining the Habitat of Pacific Tuna of the Eastern Tropical Pacific from Satellite Imagery, Climatologies, and a Global Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiefer, D. A.; Hinton, M. G.; Armstrong, E. M.; Harrison, D. P.; Menemenlis, D.; Hu, C.

2016-02-01

With support from NASA's Ecological Forecasting program, we have developed a Tuna Stock Assessment Support System, which merges time series of satellite imagery, a global ocean circulation model, climatology from field surveys, and fisheries data on catch and effort. The purpose of this software is to extract information on the habitat of skipjack, bigeye, and yellowfin tuna in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. The support system is based upon a 50-year record of catch and effort from long-line and purse seine vessels provide by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission. This database, which covers thousands of kilometers of ocean surface, provides monthly information at a 1 degree spatial resolution for the purse seine fleet and 5 degree resolution for the long line fishery. This data is then merged in time and space with satellite imagery of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and height, as well as NODC climatologies of oxygen concentration and temperature, and output from NASA's ECCO-2 global circulation model, which provides 3-dimensional simulations of water density, current velocity, mixed layer depth, and sea surface height. Our analyses have yielded a broad range of understanding of the habitat and dynamics both the fish and the fisherman. The purse seine ground, which targets younger tuna, is constrained to waters where the hypoxic layer is shallow. The longline fishery, which targets older tuna, is not constrained by the hypoxic layer and has a much larger distribution. We have characterized the preferences of each species to environmental variables including the depth of the hypoxic layer, the depth of the water column, as well as sea surface height, temperature, and chlorophyll concentration. Finally, the analyses have revealed information on local depletion by fishing, the size distribution of the schools of younger fish, and the impact of ENSO on fishing activities.

Development and testing of meteorology and air dispersion models for Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, M. D.; Brown, M. J.; Cruz, X.; Sosa, G.; Streit, G.

Los Alamos National Laboratory and Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo are completing a joint study of options for improving air quality in Mexico City. We have modified a three-dimensional, prognostic, higher-order turbulence model for atmospheric circulation (HOTMAC) and a Monte Carlo dispersion and transport model (RAPTAD) to treat domains that include an urbanized area. We used the meteorological model to drive models which describe the photochemistry and air transport and dispersion. The photochemistry modeling is described in a separate paper. We tested the model against routine measurements and those of a major field program. During the field program, measurements included: (1) lidar measurements of aerosol transport and dispersion, (2) aircraft measurements of winds, turbulence, and chemical species aloft, (3) aircraft measurements of skin temperatures, and (4) Tethersonde measurements of winds and ozone. We modified the meteorological model to include provisions for time-varying synoptic-scale winds, adjustments for local wind effects, and detailed surface-coverage descriptions. We developed a new method to define mixing-layer heights based on model outputs. The meteorology and dispersion models were able to provide reasonable representations of the measurements and to define the sources of some of the major uncertainties in the model-measurement comparisons.

An ocean data assimilation system and reanalysis of the World Ocean hydrophysical fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelenko, A. A.; Vil'fand, R. M.; Resnyanskii, Yu. D.; Strukov, B. S.; Tsyrulnikov, M. D.; Svirenko, P. I.

2016-07-01

A new version of the ocean data assimilation system (ODAS) developed at the Hydrometcentre of Russia is presented. The assimilation is performed following the sequential scheme analysis-forecast-analysis. The main components of the ODAS are procedures for operational observation data processing, a variational analysis scheme, and an ocean general circulation model used to estimate the first guess fields involved in the analysis. In situ observations of temperature and salinity in the upper 1400-m ocean layer obtained from various observational platforms are used as input data. In the new ODAS version, the horizontal resolution of the assimilating model and of the output products is increased, the previous 2D-Var analysis scheme is replaced by a more general 3D-Var scheme, and a more flexible incremental analysis updating procedure is introduced to correct the model calculations. A reanalysis of the main World Ocean hydrophysical fields over the 2005-2015 period has been performed using the updated ODAS. The reanalysis results are compared with data from independent sources.

Biogeographic patterns in ocean microbes emerge in a neutral agent-based model.

PubMed

Hellweger, Ferdi L; van Sebille, Erik; Fredrick, Neil D

2014-09-12

A key question in ecology and evolution is the relative role of natural selection and neutral evolution in producing biogeographic patterns. We quantify the role of neutral processes by simulating division, mutation, and death of 100,000 individual marine bacteria cells with full 1 million-base-pair genomes in a global surface ocean circulation model. The model is run for up to 100,000 years and output is analyzed using BLAST (Basic Local Alignment Search Tool) alignment and metagenomics fragment recruitment. Simulations show the production and maintenance of biogeographic patterns, characterized by distinct provinces subject to mixing and periodic takeovers by neighbors (coalescence), after which neutral evolution reestablishes the province and the patterns reorganize. The emergent patterns are substantial (e.g., down to 99.5% DNA identity between North and Central Pacific provinces) and suggest that microbes evolve faster than ocean currents can disperse them. This approach can also be used to explore environmental selection. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High-Consequence Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, R.; Constantine, P.; Boslough, M.

2011-12-01

We have posed the climate change problem in a framework similar to that used in safety engineering, by acknowledging that probabilistic risk assessments focused on low-probability, high-consequence climate events are perhaps more appropriate than studies focused simply on best estimates. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We have developed specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) that can be used to make predictions about the tails of the associated probability distributions. A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field, that is, a random variable for every fixed location in the atmosphere at all times. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, or to a collection of outputs from general circulation models. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework was also developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, to assess these risks. To illustrate the use of the SSM, we considered two collections of NCAR CCSM 3.0 output data. The first collection corresponds to average December surface temperature for years 1990-1999 based on a collection of 8 different model runs obtained from the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). We calibrated the surrogate model to the available model data and make various point predictions. We also analyzed average precipitation rate in June, July, and August over a 54-year period assuming a cyclic Y2K ocean model. We applied the calibrated surrogate model to study the probability that the precipitation rate falls below certain thresholds and utilized the Bayesian approach to quantify our confidence in these predictions. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

PULMONARY CIRCULATION AT EXERCISE

PubMed Central

NAEIJE, R; CHESLER, N

2012-01-01

The pulmonary circulation is a high flow and low pressure circuit, with an average resistance of 1 mmHg.min.L−1 in young adults, increasing to 2.5 mmHg.min.L−1 over 4–6 decades of life. Pulmonary vascular mechanics at exercise are best described by distensible models. Exercise does not appear to affect the time constant of the pulmonary circulation or the longitudinal distribution of resistances. Very high flows are associated with high capillary pressures, up to a 20–25 mmHg threshold associated with interstitial lung edema and altered ventilation/perfusion relationships. Pulmonary artery pressures of 40–50 mmHg, which can be achieved at maximal exercise, may correspond to the extreme of tolerable right ventricular afterload. Distension of capillaries that decrease resistance may be of adaptative value during exercise, but this is limited by hypoxemia from altered diffusion/perfusion relationships. Exercise in hypoxia is associated with higher pulmonary vascular pressures and lower maximal cardiac output, with increased likelihood of right ventricular function limitation and altered gas exchange by interstitial lung edema. Pharmacological interventions aimed at the reduction of pulmonary vascular tone have little effect on pulmonary vascular pressure-flow relationships in normoxia, but may decrease resistance in hypoxia, unloading the right ventricle and thereby improving exercise capacity. Exercise in patients with pulmonary hypertension is associated with sharp increases in pulmonary artery pressure and a right ventricular limitation of aerobic capacity. Exercise stress testing to determine multipoint pulmonary vascular pressures-flow relationships may uncover early stage pulmonary vascular disease. PMID:23105961

Implementation of local grid refinement (LGR) for the Lake Michigan Basin regional groundwater-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, C.J.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating water availability and use within the Great Lakes Basin. This is a pilot effort to develop new techniques and methods to aid in the assessment of water availability. As part of the pilot program, a regional groundwater-flow model for the Lake Michigan Basin was developed using SEAWAT-2000. The regional model was used as a framework for assessing local-scale water availability through grid-refinement techniques. Two grid-refinement techniques, telescopic mesh refinement and local grid refinement, were used to illustrate the capability of the regional model to evaluate local-scale problems. An intermediate model was developed in central Michigan spanning an area of 454 square miles (mi2) using telescopic mesh refinement. Within the intermediate model, a smaller local model covering an area of 21.7 mi2 was developed and simulated using local grid refinement. Recharge was distributed in space and time using a daily output from a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance method. The soil-water-balance method derived recharge estimates from temperature and precipitation data output from an atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model. The particular atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model used, simulated climate change caused by high global greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere. The surface-water network simulated in the regional model was refined and simulated using a streamflow-routing package for MODFLOW. The refined models were used to demonstrate streamflow depletion and potential climate change using five scenarios. The streamflow-depletion scenarios include (1) natural conditions (no pumping), (2) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in surficial glacial deposits, (3) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in deeper glacial deposits, and (4) a pumping well near a stream; the well is open to a deep bedrock aquifer. Results indicated that a range of 59 to 50 percent of the water pumped originated from the stream for the shallow glacial and deep bedrock pumping scenarios, respectively. The difference in streamflow reduction between the shallow and deep pumping scenarios was compensated for in the deep well by deriving more water from regional sources. The climate-change scenario only simulated natural conditions from 1991-2044, so there was no pumping stress simulated. Streamflows were calculated for the simulated period and indicated that recharge over the period generally increased from the start of the simulation until approximately 2017, and decreased from then to the end of the simulation. Streamflow was highly correlated with recharge so that the lowest streamflows occurred in the later stress periods of the model when recharge was lowest.

North Atlantic Storm Activity During the Younger Dryas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toomey, M.

2015-12-01

The risks posed to cities along the Eastern Seaboard by a potential intensification of tropical cyclone activity over the coming decades remain poorly constrained, in part, due to a lack of available storm proxy records that extend beyond the relatively stable climates of the late Holocene. Previous work in the Bahamas shows that coarse-grained, high-energy event layers in carbonate bank margin sediments: (1) closely track recent historic hurricane events and (2) that the sensitivity of this proxy may be less affected by the deglacial changes in sea level that have limited our ability to reconstruct past hurricane activity using overwash records from back-barrier beach settings. Here we present a record of storm triggered turbidite deposition from a suite of well dated (e.g. Lynch-Stieglitz et al., 2011, Paleoceanography) jumbo piston cores taken offbank (300-500 mbsl) the Dry Tortugas, Florida, that spans abrupt transitions in North Atlantic sea surface temperature and thermohaline circulation during the Younger Dryas (12.9 - 11.5 kyr BP). This record, along with General Circulation Model output (TraCE: NCAR-CGD), indicates strong hurricane activity may have occurred along Southeastern US coasts through this interval despite considerably colder North Atlantic SSTs.

Surrogate-Based Optimization of Biogeochemical Transport Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prieß, Malte; Slawig, Thomas

2010-09-01

First approaches towards a surrogate-based optimization method for a one-dimensional marine biogeochemical model of NPZD type are presented. The model, developed by Oschlies and Garcon [1], simulates the distribution of nitrogen, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus in a water column and is driven by ocean circulation data. A key issue is to minimize the misfit between the model output and given observational data. Our aim is to reduce the overall optimization cost avoiding expensive function and derivative evaluations by using a surrogate model replacing the high-fidelity model in focus. This in particular becomes important for more complex three-dimensional models. We analyse a coarsening in the discretization of the model equations as one way to create such a surrogate. Here the numerical stability crucially depends upon the discrete stepsize in time and space and the biochemical terms. We show that for given model parameters the level of grid coarsening can be choosen accordingly yielding a stable and satisfactory surrogate. As one example of a surrogate-based optimization method we present results of the Aggressive Space Mapping technique (developed by John W. Bandler [2, 3]) applied to the optimization of this one-dimensional biogeochemical transport model.

Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skiles, J. W.

1995-01-01

Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

2014-09-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

Dynamical influences on thermospheric composition: implications for semi-empirical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, E. K.; Solomon, S. C.

2014-12-01

The TIE-GCM was recently augmented to include helium and argon, two approximately inert species that can be used as tracers of dynamics in the thermosphere. The former species is treated as a major species due to its large abundance near the upper boundary. The effects of exospheric transport are also included in order to simulate realistic seasonal and latitudinal helium distributions. The latter species is treated as a classical minor species, imparting absolutely no forces on the background atmosphere. In this study, we examine the interplay of the various dynamical terms - i.e. background circulation, molecular and Eddy diffusion - as they drive departures from the distributions that would be expected under the assumption of diffusive equilibrium. As this has implications on the formulation of all empirical thermospheric models, we use this understanding to address the following questions: (1) how do errors caused by the assumption of diffusive equilibrium manifest within empirical models of the thermosphere? and (2) where and when does an empirical model's output disagree with its underlying datasets due to the inherent limitations of said model's formulation?

Evaluation of uncertainty in capturing the spatial variability and magnitudes of extreme hydrological events for the uMngeni catchment, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton Toucher, Michele L.; van Garderen, Emma Archer

2018-02-01

Downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) output are used to forecast climate change and provide information used as input for hydrological modelling. Given that our understanding of climate change points towards an increasing frequency, timing and intensity of extreme hydrological events, there is therefore the need to assess the ability of downscaled GCMs to capture these extreme hydrological events. Extreme hydrological events play a significant role in regulating the structure and function of rivers and associated ecosystems. In this study, the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method was adapted to assess the ability of simulated streamflow (using downscaled GCMs (dGCMs)) in capturing extreme river dynamics (high and low flows), as compared to streamflow simulated using historical climate data from 1960 to 2000. The ACRU hydrological model was used for simulating streamflow for the 13 water management units of the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa. Statistically downscaled climate models obtained from the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town were used as input for the ACRU Model. Results indicated that, high flows and extreme high flows (one in ten year high flows/large flood events) were poorly represented both in terms of timing, frequency and magnitude. Simulated streamflow using dGCMs data also captures more low flows and extreme low flows (one in ten year lowest flows) than that captured in streamflow simulated using historical climate data. The overall conclusion was that although dGCMs output can reasonably be used to simulate overall streamflow, it performs poorly when simulating extreme high and low flows. Streamflow simulation from dGCMs must thus be used with caution in hydrological applications, particularly for design hydrology, as extreme high and low flows are still poorly represented. This, arguably calls for the further improvement of downscaling techniques in order to generate climate data more relevant and useful for hydrological applications such as in design hydrology. Nevertheless, the availability of downscaled climatic output provide the potential of exploring climate model uncertainties in different hydro climatic regions at local scales where forcing data is often less accessible but more accurate at finer spatial scales and with adequate spatial detail.

From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact

PubMed Central

Baron, Christian; Sultan, Benjamin; Balme, Maud; Sarr, Benoit; Traore, Seydou; Lebel, Thierry; Janicot, Serge; Dingkuhn, Michael

2005-01-01

General circulation models (GCM) are increasingly capable of making relevant predictions of seasonal and long-term climate variability, thus improving prospects of predicting impact on crop yields. This is particularly important for semi-arid West Africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security. Translating GCM outputs into attainable crop yields is difficult because GCM grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield, involving partitioning of rain among runoff, evaporation, transpiration, drainage and storage at plot scale. This study analyses the bias introduced to crop simulation when climatic data is aggregated spatially or in time, resulting in loss of relevant variation. A detailed case study was conducted using historical weather data for Senegal, applied to the crop model SARRA-H (version for millet). The study was then extended to a 10°N–17° N climatic gradient and a 31 year climate sequence to evaluate yield sensitivity to the variability of solar radiation and rainfall. Finally, a down-scaling model called LGO (Lebel–Guillot–Onibon), generating local rain patterns from grid cell means, was used to restore the variability lost by aggregation. Results indicate that forcing the crop model with spatially aggregated rainfall causes yield overestimations of 10–50% in dry latitudes, but nearly none in humid zones, due to a biased fraction of rainfall available for crop transpiration. Aggregation of solar radiation data caused significant bias in wetter zones where radiation was limiting yield. Where climatic gradients are steep, these two situations can occur within the same GCM grid cell. Disaggregation of grid cell means into a pattern of virtual synoptic stations having high-resolution rainfall distribution removed much of the bias caused by aggregation and gave realistic simulations of yield. It is concluded that coupling of GCM outputs with plot level crop models can cause large systematic errors due to scale incompatibility. These errors can be avoided by transforming GCM outputs, especially rainfall, to simulate the variability found at plot level. PMID:16433096

Hydroclimatic sustainability assessment of changing climate on cholera in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasr-Azadani, Fariborz; Khan, Rakibul; Rahimikollu, Javad; Unnikrishnan, Avinash; Akanda, Ali; Alam, Munirul; Huq, Anwar; Jutla, Antarpreet; Colwell, Rita

2017-10-01

The association of cholera and climate has been extensively documented. However, determining the effects of changing climate on the occurrence of disease remains a challenge. Bimodal peaks of cholera in Bengal Delta are hypothesized to be linked to asymmetric flow of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Spring cholera is related to intrusion of bacteria-laden coastal seawater during low flow seasons, while autumn cholera results from cross-contamination of water resources when high flows in the rivers cause massive inundation. Coarse resolution of General Circulation Model (GCM) output (usually at 100 - 300 km)cannot be used to evaluate variability at the local scale(10-20 km),hence the goal of this study was to develop a framework that could be used to understand impacts of climate change on occurrence of cholera. Instead of a traditional approach of downscaling precipitation, streamflow of the two rivers was directly linked to GCM outputs, achieving reasonable accuracy (R2 = 0.89 for the Ganges and R2 = 0.91 for the Brahmaputra)using machine learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression-Particle Swarm Optimization). Copula methods were used to determine probabilistic risks of cholera under several discharge conditions. Key results, using model outputs from ECHAM5, GFDL, andHadCM3for A1B and A2 scenarios, suggest that the combined low flow of the two rivers may increase in the future, with high flows increasing for first half of this century, decreasing thereafter. Spring and autumn cholera, assuming societal conditions remain constant e.g., at the current rate, may decrease. However significant shifts were noted in the magnitude of river discharge suggesting that cholera dynamics of the delta may well demonstrate an uncertain predictable pattern of occurrence over the next century.

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.

2017-10-01

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Paulo; Moura, Antonio D.; Sun, Liqiang

2001-12-01

This study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January-April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one-way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80-km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM-80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80-km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root-mean-square error. On the other hand, the RSM-20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM-80 model is one of the principal reasons for better-forecast scores of the RSM-80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic-scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80-km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

2018-04-01

The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional and zonal components of global atmospheric circulation.

A Novel Approach to Develop the Lower Order Model of Multi-Input Multi-Output System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajalakshmy, P.; Dharmalingam, S.; Jayakumar, J.

2017-10-01

A mathematical model is a virtual entity that uses mathematical language to describe the behavior of a system. Mathematical models are used particularly in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines like physics, biology, and electrical engineering as well as in the social sciences like economics, sociology and political science. Physicists, Engineers, Computer scientists, and Economists use mathematical models most extensively. With the advent of high performance processors and advanced mathematical computations, it is possible to develop high performing simulators for complicated Multi Input Multi Ouptut (MIMO) systems like Quadruple tank systems, Aircrafts, Boilers etc. This paper presents the development of the mathematical model of a 500 MW utility boiler which is a highly complex system. A synergistic combination of operational experience, system identification and lower order modeling philosophy has been effectively used to develop a simplified but accurate model of a circulation system of a utility boiler which is a MIMO system. The results obtained are found to be in good agreement with the physics of the process and with the results obtained through design procedure. The model obtained can be directly used for control system studies and to realize hardware simulators for boiler testing and operator training.

Decompression models: review, relevance and validation capabilities.

PubMed

Hugon, J

2014-01-01

For more than a century, several types of mathematical models have been proposed to describe tissue desaturation mechanisms in order to limit decompression sickness. These models are statistically assessed by DCS cases, and, over time, have gradually included bubble formation biophysics. This paper proposes to review this evolution and discuss its limitations. This review is organized around the comparison of decompression model biophysical criteria and theoretical foundations. Then, the DCS-predictive capability was analyzed to assess whether it could be improved by combining different approaches. Most of the operational decompression models have a neo-Haldanian form. Nevertheless, bubble modeling has been gaining popularity, and the circulating bubble amount has become a major output. By merging both views, it seems possible to build a relevant global decompression model that intends to simulate bubble production while predicting DCS risks for all types of exposures and decompression profiles. A statistical approach combining both DCS and bubble detection databases has to be developed to calibrate a global decompression model. Doppler ultrasound and DCS data are essential: i. to make correlation and validation phases reliable; ii. to adjust biophysical criteria to fit at best the observed bubble kinetics; and iii. to build a relevant risk function.

A Survey of Business Trends at BioOne Publishing Partners and its Implications for BioOne

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carpenter, Todd A.; Joseph, Heather; Waltham, Mary

2004-01-01

This paper describes a survey of BioOne participating publishers that was conducted during the fall of 2003. In that survey, BioOne collected data from 18 not-for-profit publishers on circulation levels, scholarly output in terms of pages and articles produced, revenues, and expenditures. From eight of the publishers, complete profit, loss, and…

Mode calculations in unstable resonators with flowing saturable gain. 1:hermite-gaussian expansion.

PubMed

Siegman, A E; Sziklas, E A

1974-12-01

We present a procedure for calculating the three-dimensional mode pattern, the output beam characteristics, and the power output of an oscillating high-power laser taking into account a nonuniform, transversely flowing, saturable gain medium; index inhomogeneities inside the laser resonator; and arbitrary mirror distortion and misalignment. The laser is divided into a number of axial segments. The saturated gain-and-index variation. across each short segment is lumped into a complex gain profile across the midplane of that segment. The circulating optical wave within the resonator is propagated from midplane to midplane in free-space fashion and is multiplied by the lumped complex gain profile upon passing through each midplane. After each complete round trip of the optical wave inside the resonator, the saturated gain profiles are recalculated based upon the circulating fields in the cavity. The procedure when applied to typical unstable-resonator flowing-gain lasers shows convergence to a single distorted steady-state mode of oscillation. Typical near-field and far-field results are presented. Several empirical rules of thumb for finite truncated Hermite-Gaussian expansions, including an approximate sampling theorem, have been developed as part of the calculations.

Using a Gravity Model to Predict Circulation in a Public Library System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ottensmann, John R.

1995-01-01

Describes the development of a gravity model based upon principles of spatial interaction to predict the circulation of libraries in the Indianapolis-Marion County Public Library (Indiana). The model effectively predicted past circulation figures and was tested by predicting future library circulation, particularly for a new branch library.…

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Held, Isaac M.; Leetmaa, Ants; Harrison, Matthew J.

2006-05-01

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean-driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east-known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.

Effects of Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Arrays on Wave, Current, and Sediment Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruehl, K.; Roberts, J. D.; Jones, C.; Magalen, J.; James, S. C.

2012-12-01

The characterization of the physical environment and commensurate alteration of that environment due to Wave Energy Conversion (WEC) devices, or arrays of devices, must be understood to make informed device-performance predictions, specifications of hydrodynamic loads, and environmental evaluations of eco-system responses (e.g., changes to circulation patterns, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Hydrodynamic and sediment issues associated with performance of wave-energy devices will primarily be nearshore where WEC infrastructure (e.g., anchors, piles) are exposed to large forces from the surface-wave action and currents. Wave-energy devices will be subject to additional corrosion, fouling, and wear of moving parts caused by suspended sediments in the water column. The alteration of the circulation and sediment transport patterns may also alter local ecosystems through changes in benthic habitat, circulation patterns, or other environmental parameters. Sandia National Laboratories is developing tools and performing studies to quantitatively characterize the environments where WEC devices may be installed and to assess potential affects to hydrodynamics and local sediment transport. The primary tools are wave, hydrodynamic, and sediment transport models. To ensure confidence in the resulting evaluation of system-wide effects, the models are appropriately constrained and validated with measured data where available. An extension of the US EPA's EFDC code, SNL-EFDC, provides a suitable platform for modeling the necessary hydrodynamics;it has been modified to directly incorporate output from a SWAN wave model of the region. Model development and results are presented. In this work, a model is exercised for Monterey Bay, near Santa Cruz where a WEC array could be deployed. Santa Cruz is located on the northern coast of Monterey Bay, in Central California, USA. This site was selected for preliminary research due to the readily available historical hydrodynamic data (currents and wave heights, periods, and directions), sediment characterization data, and near-shore bathymetric data. In addition, the region has been under evaluation for future ocean energy projects. The modeling framework of SWAN and SNL-EFDC combined with field validation datasets allows for a robust quantitative description of the nearshore environment within which the MHK devices will be evaluated. This quantitative description can be directly incorporated into environmental impact assessments to eliminate guesswork related to the effects of the presence of large-scale arrays. These results can be used to design more efficient arrays while minimizing impacts on the nearshore environments. Further investigations into fine-scale scour near the structures will help determine if these large-scale results show that, in fact, there is deposition adjacent to the arrays, which could have design implications on anchorage and cabling systems.

Intercomparison of Downscaling Methods on Hydrological Impact for Earth System Model of NE United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, P.; Fekete, B. M.; Rosenzweig, B.; Lengyel, F.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2012-12-01

Atmospheric dynamics are essential inputs to Regional-scale Earth System Models (RESMs). Variables including surface air temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed and humidity must be downscaled from coarse-resolution, global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to the high temporal and spatial resolution required for regional modeling. However, this downscaling procedure can be challenging due to the need to correct for bias from the GCM and to capture the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the regional dynamics. In this study, the results obtained using several downscaling techniques and observational datasets were compared for a RESM of the Northeast Corridor of the United States. Previous efforts have enhanced GCM model outputs through bias correction using novel techniques. For example, the Climate Impact Research at Potsdam Institute developed a series of bias-corrected GCMs towards the next generation climate change scenarios (Schiermeier, 2012; Moss et al., 2010). Techniques to better represent the heterogeneity of climate variables have also been improved using statistical approaches (Maurer, 2008; Abatzoglou, 2011). For this study, four downscaling approaches to transform bias-corrected HADGEM2-ES Model output (daily at .5 x .5 degree) to the 3'*3'(longitude*latitude) daily and monthly resolution required for the Northeast RESM were compared: 1) Bilinear Interpolation, 2) Daily bias-corrected spatial downscaling (D-BCSD) with Gridded Meteorological Datasets (developed by Abazoglou 2011), 3) Monthly bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (M-BCSD) with CRU(Climate Research Unit) and 4) Dynamic Downscaling based on Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Spatio-temporal analysis of the variability in precipitation was conducted over the study domain. Validation of the variables of different downscaling methods against observational datasets was carried out for assessment of the downscaled climate model outputs. The effects of using the different approaches to downscale atmospheric variables (specifically air temperature and precipitation) for use as inputs to the Water Balance Model (WBMPlus, Vorosmarty et al., 1998;Wisser et al., 2008) for simulation of daily discharge and monthly stream flow in the Northeast US for a 100-year period in the 21st century were also assessed. Statistical techniques especially monthly bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (M-BCSD) showed potential advantage among other methods for the daily discharge and monthly stream flow simulation. However, Dynamic Downscaling will provide important complements to the statistical approaches tested.

Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuttle, Samuel E.; Salvucci, Guido D.

2017-07-01

Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.

Solid state Ku-band spacecraft transmitters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wisseman, W. R.; Tserng, H. Q.; Coleman, D. J.; Doerbeck, F. H.

1977-01-01

A transmitter is considered that consists of GaAs IMPATT and Read diodes operating in a microstrip circuit environment to provide amplification with a minimum of 63 db small signal gain and a minimum compressed gain at 5 W output of 57 db. Reported are Schottky-Read diode design and fabrication, microstrip and circulator optimization, preamplifier development, power amplifier development, dc-to-dc converter design, and integration of the breadboard transmitter modules. A four-stage power amplifier in cascade with a three-stage preamplifier had an overall gain of 56.5 db at 13.5 GHz with a power output of 4.5 W. A single-stage Read amplifier delivered 5.9 W with 4 db gain at 22% efficiency.

Diode-quad bridge circuit means

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, D. R.; Dimeff, J. (Inventor)

1975-01-01

Diode-quad bridge circuit means is described for use as a transducer circuit or as a discriminator circuit. It includes: (1) a diode bridge having first, second, third, and fourth bridge terminals consecutively coupled together by four diodes polarized in circulating relationship; (2) a first impedance connected between the second bridge terminal and a circuit ground; (3) a second impedance connected between the fourth bridge terminal and the circuit ground; (4) a signal source having a first source terminal capacitively coupled to the first and third bridge terminals, and a second source terminal connected to the circuit ground; and (5) an output terminal coupled to the first bridge terminal and at which an output signal may be taken.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.

PubMed

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

Global modeling of thermospheric airglow in the far ultraviolet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, Stanley C.

2017-07-01

The Global Airglow (GLOW) model has been updated and extended to calculate thermospheric emissions in the far ultraviolet, including sources from daytime photoelectron-driven processes, nighttime recombination radiation, and auroral excitation. It can be run using inputs from empirical models of the neutral atmosphere and ionosphere or from numerical general circulation models of the coupled ionosphere-thermosphere system. It uses a solar flux module, photoelectron generation routine, and the Nagy-Banks two-stream electron transport algorithm to simultaneously handle energetic electron distributions from photon and auroral electron sources. It contains an ion-neutral chemistry module that calculates excited and ionized species densities and the resulting airglow volume emission rates. This paper describes the inputs, algorithms, and code structure of the model and demonstrates example outputs for daytime and auroral cases. Simulations of far ultraviolet emissions by the atomic oxygen doublet at 135.6 nm and the molecular nitrogen Lyman-Birge-Hopfield bands, as viewed from geostationary orbit, are shown, and model calculations are compared to limb-scan observations by the Global Ultraviolet Imager on the TIMED satellite. The GLOW model code is provided to the community through an open-source academic research license.

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

Real-time monitoring of spinal cord blood flow with a novel sensor mounted on a cerebrospinal fluid drainage catheter in an animal model.

PubMed

Hayatsu, Yukihiro; Kawamoto, Shunsuke; Matsunaga, Tadao; Haga, Yoichi; Saiki, Yoshikatsu

2014-10-01

The aim of our study was to develop a novel monitoring system for spinal cord blood flow (SCBF) to test the efficacy of the SCBF sensor in an animal model. The sensor system consisted of 2 optical fibers, a pedestal for fiber fixation, and a mirror for the laser reflection and was incorporated into a cerebrospinal fluid drainage catheter. In vivo studies were performed in a swine model (n=10) to measure SCBF during spinal cord ischemia induced by clamping the descending thoracic aorta and supra-aortic neck vessels, when necessary. A temporary low cardiac output model was also created by inflow clamping of the inferior vena cava to analyze the quantitative changes in SCBF during this maneuver. The developed SCBF monitoring catheter placed intrathecally could detect SCBF in all the swine. The SCBF after aortic crossclamping at the fourth intercostal level exhibited diverse changes reproducibly among the swine, with a >25% reduction in SCBF in 5 pigs, an increase in 3, and no significant changes in 2. Consistent reductions were recorded during inferior vena cava occlusion. The mean SCBF decreased by 32% after inferior vena cava occlusion when the cardiac output had decreased by 27%. We have developed a novel SCBF sensor that could detect real-time changes in spinal cord perfusion in a swine model. The device holds promise to detect imminent ischemia or ensure acceptable blood perfusion in the spinal cord and could further enhance our understanding of spinal cord circulation. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness and limitations of parameter tuning in reducing biases of top-of-atmosphere radiation and clouds in MIROC version 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogura, Tomoo; Shiogama, Hideo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Yokohata, Tokuta; Annan, James D.; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Ushigami, Naoto; Hirota, Kazuya; Someya, Yu; Kamae, Youichi; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Kimoto, Masahide

2017-12-01

This study discusses how much of the biases in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and clouds can be removed by parameter tuning in the present-day simulation of a climate model in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) generation. We used output of a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) experiment conducted with an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) without flux adjustment. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) was used for the PPE experiment. Output of the PPE was compared with satellite observation data to evaluate the model biases and the parametric uncertainty of the biases with respect to TOA radiation and clouds. The results indicate that removing or changing the sign of the biases by parameter tuning alone is difficult. In particular, the cooling bias of the shortwave cloud radiative effect at low latitudes could not be removed, neither in the zonal mean nor at each latitude-longitude grid point. The bias was related to the overestimation of both cloud amount and cloud optical thickness, which could not be removed by the parameter tuning either. However, they could be alleviated by tuning parameters such as the maximum cumulus updraft velocity at the cloud base. On the other hand, the bias of the shortwave cloud radiative effect in the Arctic was sensitive to parameter tuning. It could be removed by tuning such parameters as albedo of ice and snow both in the zonal mean and at each grid point. The obtained results illustrate the benefit of PPE experiments which provide useful information regarding effectiveness and limitations of parameter tuning. Implementing a shallow convection parameterization is suggested as a potential measure to alleviate the biases in radiation and clouds.

Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory.

PubMed

Yu, Qin; Epstein, Howard; Engstrom, Ryan; Walker, Donald

2017-09-01

Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Statistical Downscaling of General Circulation Model Outputs to Precipitation Accounting for Non-Stationarities in Predictor-Predictand Relationships

PubMed Central

Sachindra, D. A.; Perera, B. J. C.

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel approach to incorporate the non-stationarities characterised in the GCM outputs, into the Predictor-Predictand Relationships (PPRs) in statistical downscaling models. In this approach, a series of 42 PPRs based on multi-linear regression (MLR) technique were determined for each calendar month using a 20-year moving window moved at a 1-year time step on the predictor data obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data archive and observations of precipitation at 3 stations located in Victoria, Australia, for the period 1950–2010. Then the relationships between the constants and coefficients in the PPRs and the statistics of reanalysis data of predictors were determined for the period 1950–2010, for each calendar month. Thereafter, using these relationships with the statistics of the past data of HadCM3 GCM pertaining to the predictors, new PPRs were derived for the periods 1950–69, 1970–89 and 1990–99 for each station. This process yielded a non-stationary downscaling model consisting of a PPR per calendar month for each of the above three periods for each station. The non-stationarities in the climate are characterised by the long-term changes in the statistics of the climate variables and above process enabled relating the non-stationarities in the climate to the PPRs. These new PPRs were then used with the past data of HadCM3, to reproduce the observed precipitation. It was found that the non-stationary MLR based downscaling model was able to produce more accurate simulations of observed precipitation more often than conventional stationary downscaling models developed with MLR and Genetic Programming (GP). PMID:27997609

Statistical Downscaling of General Circulation Model Outputs to Precipitation Accounting for Non-Stationarities in Predictor-Predictand Relationships.

PubMed

Sachindra, D A; Perera, B J C

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel approach to incorporate the non-stationarities characterised in the GCM outputs, into the Predictor-Predictand Relationships (PPRs) in statistical downscaling models. In this approach, a series of 42 PPRs based on multi-linear regression (MLR) technique were determined for each calendar month using a 20-year moving window moved at a 1-year time step on the predictor data obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data archive and observations of precipitation at 3 stations located in Victoria, Australia, for the period 1950-2010. Then the relationships between the constants and coefficients in the PPRs and the statistics of reanalysis data of predictors were determined for the period 1950-2010, for each calendar month. Thereafter, using these relationships with the statistics of the past data of HadCM3 GCM pertaining to the predictors, new PPRs were derived for the periods 1950-69, 1970-89 and 1990-99 for each station. This process yielded a non-stationary downscaling model consisting of a PPR per calendar month for each of the above three periods for each station. The non-stationarities in the climate are characterised by the long-term changes in the statistics of the climate variables and above process enabled relating the non-stationarities in the climate to the PPRs. These new PPRs were then used with the past data of HadCM3, to reproduce the observed precipitation. It was found that the non-stationary MLR based downscaling model was able to produce more accurate simulations of observed precipitation more often than conventional stationary downscaling models developed with MLR and Genetic Programming (GP).

What radiologists need to know about the pulmonary-systemic flow ratio (Qp/Qs): what it is, how to calculate it, and what it is for.

PubMed

Marín Rodríguez, C; Sánchez Alegre, M L; Lancharro Zapata, Á; Alarcón Rodríguez, J

2015-01-01

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (cMRI) provides abundant morphological and functional information in the study of congenital heart disease. The functional information includes pulmonary output and systemic output; the ratio between these two (Qp/Qs) is the shunt fraction. After birth, in normal conditions the pulmonary output is practically identical to the systemic output, so Qp/Qs = 1. In patients with « shunts » between the systemic and pulmonary circulations, the ratio changes, and the interpretation of these findings varies in function of the location of the shunt (intracardiac or extracardiac) and of the associated structural or postsurgical changes. We review the concept of Qp/Qs; the methods to calculate it, with special emphasis on cMRI; and the meaning of the results obtained. We place special emphasis on the relevance of these findings depending on the underlying disease and the treatment the patient has undergone. Copyright © 2015 SERAM. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

An energetic perspective on hydrological cycle changes in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, Ben; Rasch, Philip J.; Forster, Piers M.; Andrews, Timothy; Cole, Jason N. S.; Irvine, Peter J.; Ji, Duoying; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Moore, John C.; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Robock, Alan; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yoon, Jin-Ho

2013-12-01

of surface and atmospheric energy budget responses to CO2 and solar forcings can be used to reveal mechanisms of change in the hydrological cycle. We apply this energetic perspective to output from 11 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models simulating experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), which achieves top-of-atmosphere energy balance between an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial levels (abrupt4xCO2) and uniform solar irradiance reduction. We divide the climate system response into a rapid adjustment, in which climate response is due to adjustment of the atmosphere and land surface on short time scales, and a feedback response, in which the climate response is predominantly due to feedback related to global mean temperature changes. Global mean temperature change is small in G1, so the feedback response is also small. G1 shows a smaller magnitude of land sensible heat flux rapid adjustment than in abrupt4xCO2 and a larger magnitude of latent heat flux adjustment, indicating a greater reduction of evaporation and less land temperature increase than abrupt4xCO2. The sum of surface flux changes in G1 is small, indicating little ocean heat uptake. Using an energetic perspective to assess precipitation changes, abrupt4xCO2 shows decreased mean evaporative moisture flux and increased moisture convergence, particularly over land. However, most changes in precipitation in G1 are in mean evaporative flux, suggesting that changes in mean circulation are small.

Ocean angular momentum signals in a climate model and implications for Earth rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, R. M.; Rajamony, J.; Gregory, J. M.

2002-03-01

Estimates of ocean angular momentum (OAM) provide an integrated measure of variability in ocean circulation and mass fields and can be directly related to observed changes in Earth rotation. We use output from a climate model to calculate 240 years of 3-monthly OAM values (two equatorial terms L1 and L2, related to polar motion or wobble, and axial term L3, related to length of day variations) representing the period 1860-2100. Control and forced runs permit the study of the effects of natural and anthropogenically forced climate variability on OAM. All OAM components exhibit a clear annual cycle, with large decadal modulations in amplitude, and also longer period fluctuations, all associated with natural climate variability in the model. Anthropogenically induced signals, inferred from the differences between forced and control runs, include an upward trend in L3, related to inhomogeneous ocean warming and increases in the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and a significantly weaker seasonal cycle in L2 in the second half of the record, related primarily to changes in seasonal bottom pressure variability in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. Variability in mass fields is in general more important to OAM signals than changes in circulation at the seasonal and longer periods analyzed. Relation of OAM signals to changes in surface atmospheric forcing are discussed. The important role of the oceans as an excitation source for the annual, Chandler and Markowitz wobbles, is confirmed. Natural climate variability in OAM and related excitation is likely to measurably affect the Earth rotation, but anthropogenically induced effects are comparatively weak.

Sea Level Rise, Rainfall and Coastal Flooding in Northeastern U.S. Cities Vivien Gornitz, Radley Horton, Philip Orton, Nickitas Georgas, Alan Blumberg, and Cynthia Rosenzweig

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gornitz, V.; Horton, R. M.; Orton, P. M.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Rosenzweig, C.

2012-12-01

Populations and infrastructure along much of the northeastern coast of the United States will become increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of rising sea level and storm surges over the coming century. This vulnerability is amplified by regional land subsidence and likely also by shifts in ocean circulation. Building upon recent studies for the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), New York State ClimAid assessment, and the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment, we report new regional sea level rise projections based on the latest CMIP-5 global climate models (GCMs) and RCP emission scenarios, adjusted for revised glacial ice melt contributions, and other factors such as gravitational effects, land water storage, and changes in the Atlantic Meriodional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Over the coming two years, GCM-derived sea level outputs for future decades will be utilized in risk assessments for coastal flooding in New York City, Boston, and Philadelphia, as part of the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast-RISA project. The Stevens Institute Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM) will be used to produce best estimates (including uncertainty ranges) of sea level rise impacts for a wide range of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones for the 2010s, 2050s, and 2080s. Major improvements over prior studies include (a) the use of a detailed, extensively validated ocean model, and (b) inclusion of rainfall and river flow influences on coastal flooding, which affect flood levels in enclosed tidal waterways (e.g., the Hudson and Delaware Rivers), and which are also likely important in coastal confluence zones of impermeable urbanized watersheds. In addition to the sea level rise results, we present initial model validation results for historical storms.

The duration of hypotension before the initiation of antibiotic treatment is a critical determinant of survival in a murine model of Escherichia coli septic shock: association with serum lactate and inflammatory cytokine levels.

PubMed

Kumar, Anand; Haery, Cameron; Paladugu, Bhanu; Kumar, Aseem; Symeoneides, Simon; Taiberg, Leo; Osman, Jailan; Trenholme, Gordon; Opal, Steven M; Goldfarb, Roy; Parrillo, Joseph E

2006-01-15

This study was designed to examine the relationship between the timing of antibiotic treatment and both survival rates and hemodynamic/inflammatory correlates of survival in a murine model of Escherichia coli septic shock. Surgical implantation of an E. coli (O18:K1:H7)-laced, gelatin capsule-encased fibrinogen clot was used to generate a bacteremic model of murine septic shock. Survival duration, hemodynamic responses, and circulating serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha , interleukin (IL)-6, and lactate levels were assessed in relation to increasing delays in or absence of antibiotic treatment. A critical inflection point with respect to survival occurred between 12 and 15 h after implantation. When initiated at or before 12 h, antibiotic treatment resulted in < or = 20% mortality, but, when initiated at or after 15 h, it resulted in >85% mortality. Physiologically relevant hypotension developed in untreated septic mice by 12 h after implantation. Values for heart rate differed between untreated septic mice and sham-infected control mice by 6 h after implantation, whereas values for cardiac output and stroke volume did not differ until at least 18-24 h after implantation. Antibiotic treatment initiated > or = 12 h after implantation was associated with persistence of increased circulating serum lactate, TNF- alpha , and IL-6 levels. The timing of antibiotic treatment relative to hypotension is closely associated with survival in this murine model of septic shock. Delay in antibiotic treatment results in the persistence of inflammatory/stress markers even after antibiotic treatment is initiated.

A three-dimensional ocean mesoscale simulation using data from the SEMAPHORE experiment: Mixed layer heat budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caniaux, Guy; Planton, Serge

1998-10-01

A primitive equation model is used to simulate the mesoscale circulation associated with a portion of the Azores Front investigated during the intensive observation period (IOP) of the Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphere, Proprietes des Heterogeneites Oceaniques: Recherche Experimentale (SEMAPHORE) experiment in fall 1993. The model is a mesoscale version of the ocean general circulation model (OGCM) developed at the Laboratoire d'Océanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie (LODYC) in Paris and includes open lateral boundaries, a 1.5-level-order turbulence closure scheme, and fine mesh resolution (0.11° for latitude and 0.09° for longitude). The atmospheric forcing is provided by satellite data for the solar and infrared fluxes and by analyzed (or reanalyzed for the wind) atmospheric data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast model. The extended data set collected during the IOP of SEMAPHORE enables a detailed initialization of the model, a coupling with the rest of the basin through time dependent open boundaries, and a model/data comparison for validation. The analysis of model outputs indicates that most features are in good agreement with independent available observations. The surface front evolution is subject to an intense deformation different from that of the deep front system, which evolves only weakly. An estimate of the upper layer heat budget is performed during the 22 days of the integration of the model. Each term of this budget is analyzed according to various atmospheric events that occurred during the experiment, such as the passage of a strong storm. This facilitates extended estimates of mixed layer or relevant surface processes beyond those which are obtainable directly from observations. Surface fluxes represent 54% of the heat loss in the mixed layer and 70% in the top 100-m layer, while vertical transport at the mixed layer bottom accounts for 31% and three-dimensional processes account for 14%.

Isca, v1.0: a framework for the global modelling of the atmospheres of Earth and other planets at varying levels of complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallis, Geoffrey K.; Colyer, Greg; Geen, Ruth; Gerber, Edwin; Jucker, Martin; Maher, Penelope; Paterson, Alexander; Pietschnig, Marianne; Penn, James; Thomson, Stephen I.

2018-03-01

Isca is a framework for the idealized modelling of the global circulation of planetary atmospheres at varying levels of complexity and realism. The framework is an outgrowth of models from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, USA, designed for Earth's atmosphere, but it may readily be extended into other planetary regimes. Various forcing and radiation options are available, from dry, time invariant, Newtonian thermal relaxation to moist dynamics with radiative transfer. Options are available in the dry thermal relaxation scheme to account for the effects of obliquity and eccentricity (and so seasonality), different atmospheric optical depths and a surface mixed layer. An idealized grey radiation scheme, a two-band scheme, and a multiband scheme are also available, all with simple moist effects and astronomically based solar forcing. At the complex end of the spectrum the framework provides a direct connection to comprehensive atmospheric general circulation models. For Earth modelling, options include an aquaplanet and configurable continental outlines and topography. Continents may be defined by changing albedo, heat capacity, and evaporative parameters and/or by using a simple bucket hydrology model. Oceanic Q fluxes may be added to reproduce specified sea surface temperatures, with arbitrary continental distributions. Planetary atmospheres may be configured by changing planetary size and mass, solar forcing, atmospheric mass, radiation, and other parameters. Examples are given of various Earth configurations as well as a giant planet simulation, a slowly rotating terrestrial planet simulation, and tidally locked and other orbitally resonant exoplanet simulations. The underlying model is written in Fortran and may largely be configured with Python scripts. Python scripts are also used to run the model on different architectures, to archive the output, and for diagnostics, graphics, and post-processing. All of these features are publicly available in a Git-based repository.

Response of the pelagic system of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California Peninsula to the projected effects of climate change: insights from a numerical model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, B.; Rivas, D.

2015-12-01

The response of the physical and biological dynamics of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California to the projected effects of climate change are studied using numerical simulations. This region is part of the California Current System, which is a highly productive ecosystem due to the seasonal upwelling, supporting all the trophic levels and important fisheries. The response of the ecosystem to the effects of climate change is uncertain and the information generated by models could be useful to predict future conditions. A three-dimensional hydrodinamical model is coupled to a Nitrate-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) trophic model, and it is forced by the GFDL 3.0 model outputs. Monthly climatologies of variables such as temperature, nutrients, wind, and ocean circulation patterns during the historical period 1985-2005 are compared to the available observed data in order to assess the model's ability to reproduce the observed patterns. The system's response to a high-emission scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also studied. The experiments are carried out using data correspondig to the RCP 6.0 scenario during the period 2006-2050.

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, B.; Crane, R. G.

1992-01-01

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

[Cardiovascular circulation feedback control treatment instrument].

PubMed

Ge, Yu-zhi; Zhu, Xing-huan; Sheng, Guo-tai; Cao, Ping-liang; Liu, Dong-sheng; Wu, Zhi-ting

2005-07-01

The cardiovascular circulation feedback control treatment instrument (CFCTI) is an automatic feedback control treatment system, which has the function of monitoring, alarming, trouble self-diagnosis and testing on the line in the closed loop. The instrument is designed based on the successful clinical experiences and the data are inputted into the computer in real-time through a pressure sensor and A/D card. User interface window is set up for the doctor's choosing different medicine. The orders are outputted to control the dose of medicine through the transfusion system. The response to medicine is updated continually. CFCTI can avoid the man-made errors and the long interval of sampling. Its reliability and accuracy in rescuing the critical patients are much higher than the traditional methods.

Clinical-Physiological Considerations in Patients Undergoing Staged Palliation for a Functionally Single Ventricle.

PubMed

Penny, Daniel J; Krishnamurthy, Rajesh

2016-08-01

The objectives of this review are to discuss the pathophysiology of the circulation with a functionally univentricular heart, with a focus on the unique physiologic characteristics, which provide the underpinnings for the management of these complex patients. MEDLINE and PubMed. The circulation of the patient with a functionally univentricular heart displays unique physiologic characteristics, which are quite different from those of the normal biventricular circulation. There are profound differences within the heart itself in terms of ventricular function, interventricular interactions, and myocardial architecture, which are likely to have significant implications for the efficiency of ventricular ejection and metabolism. The coupling between the systemic ventricle and the aorta also displays unique features. The 3D orientation of the Fontan anastomosis itself can profoundly impact cardiac output, although the "portal" pulmonary arterial bed is a crucial determinant of overall cardiovascular function. As a result, disease-specific approaches to improve cardiovascular function are required at all stages during the care of these complex patients.

Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

2018-04-01

Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are underestimated. On the other hand, many G2 models are able to represent most of large-scale circulation over Indo-Pacific region associated with El Niño and hence provide more realistic ENSO-ISM teleconnections. Therefore, this study advocates the importance of representation/simulation of large-scale circulation patterns during El Niño years in coupled models in order to capture El Niño-monsoon teleconnections well.

An artificial right ventricle for failing fontan: in vitro and computational study.

PubMed

Lacour-Gayet, François G; Lanning, Craig J; Stoica, Serban; Wang, Rui; Rech, Bryan A; Goldberg, Steven; Shandas, Robin

2009-07-01

The aim of this study is to develop a destination low-pressure artificial right ventricle (ARV) to correct the impaired hemodynamics in the failing Fontan circulation. An in vitro model circuit of the Fontan circulation was created to reproduce the hemodynamics of the failing Fontan and test ARV performance under various central venous pressures (CVP) and flows. A novel geometry of the extracardiac conduit was designed to adapt to the need of the pump. The ARV was a low-pressure axial flow pump designed to produce a low suction inflow pressure and moderate outflow increase. With the power off, the passive forward gradient across the propeller is 2 mm Hg at 4.5 L/min. The ARV would require 4 watts at a rotation of 5000 rpm. To examine the shear loading on the red blood cells, virtual particles were injected upstream of the ARV inducer and tracked by computerized modeling. The effect of the ARV on the failing Fontan was studied at various CVP pressures and flows, and under constant values of lung resistances and left atrial pressure set respectively to 2.5 Woods Units and 7 mm Hg. The CVP pressures decreased respectively from 25, 22.5, 20, 17.5, 15, and 10 mm Hg to a minimal value of 2 to 5 mm Hg with a pump speed varying from 1700 to 4500 rpm. The pulmonary artery pressures increased moderately between 12.5 and 25 mm Hg at 4500 rpm. Cardiac output at 4500 rpm was increased by an average gain of 2 L/min. The average blood damage index was 0.92%, far below the 5% value considered to cause hemolysis. The flow structure produced by the pump was suitable. The performance of this novel low-pressure ARV was satisfactory, showing good decrease of CVP pressures, a moderate increase of pulmonary artery pressures, adequate increase of cardiac output, and minimal hemolysis. The use of a mock Fontan model circuit facilitates device prototyping and design to a far greater extent than can be achieved using animal studies, and is an essential first step for rapid design iteration of a novel ARV device. The next steps are the manufacturing of this device, including an electromagnetic engine, a regulatory system, and further testing the device in a survival animal experiment.

Origin and Radiative Forcing of Black Carbon Aerosol: Production and Consumption Perspectives.

PubMed

Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Yi, Kan; Yang, Haozhe; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Zhang, Jiachen; Ou, Jiamin; Dorling, Stephen; Mi, Zhifu; Shen, Huizhong; Zhong, Qirui; Tao, Shu

2018-05-14

Air pollution, a threat to air quality and human health, has attracted ever-increasing attention in recent years. In addition to having local influence, air pollutants can also travel the globe via atmospheric circulation and international trade. Black carbon (BC), emitted from incomplete combustion, is a unique but representative particulate pollutant. This study tracked down the BC aerosol and its direct radiative forcing to the emission sources and final consumers using the global chemical transport model (MOZART-4), the rapid radiative transfer model for general circulation simulations (RRTM), and a multiregional input-output analysis (MRIO). BC was physically transported (i.e., atmospheric transport) from western to eastern countries in the midlatitude westerlies, but its magnitude is near an order of magnitude higher if the virtual flow embodied in international trade is considered. The transboundary effects on East and South Asia by other regions increased from about 3% (physical transport only) to 10% when considering both physical and virtual transport. The influence efficiency on East Asia was also large because of the comparatively large emission intensity and emission-intensive exports (e.g., machinery and equipment). The radiative forcing in Africa imposed by consumption from Europe, North America, and East Asia (0.01 Wm -2 ) was even larger than the total forcing in North America. Understanding the supply chain and incorporating both atmospheric and virtual transport may improve multilateral cooperation on air pollutant mitigation both domestically and internationally.

Simulation of seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation using coupled atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolstykh, M. A.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Kiktev, D. B.

2014-03-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model intended for the simulation of coupled circulation at time scales up to a season is developed. The semi-Lagrangian atmospheric general circulation model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, SLAV, is coupled with the sigma model of ocean general circulation developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), INMOM. Using this coupled model, numerical experiments on ensemble modeling of the atmosphere and ocean circulation for up to 4 months are carried out using real initial data for all seasons of an annual cycle in 1989-2010. Results of these experiments are compared to the results of the SLAV model with the simple evolution of the sea surface temperature. A comparative analysis of seasonally averaged anomalies of atmospheric circulation shows prospects in applying the coupled model for forecasts. It is shown with the example of the El Niño phenomenon of 1997-1998 that the coupled model forecasts the seasonally averaged anomalies for the period of the nonstationary El Niño phase significantly better.

Why do global climate models struggle to represent low-level clouds in the West African summer monsoon?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knippertz, Peter; Hannak, Lisa; Fink, Andreas H.; Kniffka, Anke; Pante, Gregor

2017-04-01

Climate models struggle to realistically represent the West African monsoon (WAM), which hinders reliable future projections and the development of adequate adaption measures. Low-level clouds over southern West Africa (5-10°N, 8°W-8°E) during July-September are an integral part of the WAM through their effect on the surface energy balance and precipitation, but their representation in climate models has so far received little attention. These clouds usually form during the night near the level of the nocturnal low-level jet ( 950 hPa), thicken and spread until the mid-morning ( 09 UTC), and then break up and rise in the course of the day, typically to about 850 hPa. The low thermal contrast to the surface and the frequent presence of obscuring higher-level clouds make detection of the low-level clouds from space rather challenging. Here we use 30 years of output from 18 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) as well as 20 years of output from 8 models participating in the Year of Tropical Convection (YoTC) experiments to identify cloud biases and their causes. A great advantage of the YoTC dataset is the 6-hourly output frequency, which allows an analysis of the diurnal cycle, and the availability of temperature and moisture tendencies from parameterized processes such as convection, radiation and boundary-layer turbulence. A comparison to earlier analyses based on CMIP3 output reveals rather limited improvements with regard to the represenation of low-level cloud and winds. Compared to ERA-Interim re-analyses, which shows satisfactory agreement with surface observations, many of the CMIP5 and YoTC models still have large biases in low-level cloudiness of both signs and a tendency to too high elevation and too weak diurnal cycles. At the same time, these models tend to have too strong low-level jets, the impact of which is unclear due to concomitant effects on temperature and moisture advection as well as turbulent mixing. Part of the differences between the models and ERA-Interim appear to be related to the different subgrid cloud schemes used. While nighttime tendencies in temperature and humidity are broadly realistic in most models, daytime tendencies show large variation in the vertical transport of heat and moisture. Many models simulate too low near-surface relative humidities, leading to insufficient low cloud cover, abundant solar radiation, and thus a too large diurnal cycle in temperature and relative humidity. Currently, targeted model sensitivity experiments are conducted to test possible feedback mechanisms between low clouds, radiation, boundary-layer dynamics, precipitation and the WAM circulation in the framework of the EU-funded DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project (http://www.dacciwa.eu).

Modeling Single Ventricle Physiology: Review of Engineering Tools to Study First Stage Palliation of Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome

PubMed Central

Biglino, Giovanni; Giardini, Alessandro; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Figliola, Richard; Taylor, Andrew M.; Schievano, Silvia

2013-01-01

First stage palliation of hypoplastic left heart syndrome, i.e., the Norwood operation, results in a complex physiological arrangement, involving different shunting options (modified Blalock-Taussig, RV-PA conduit, central shunt from the ascending aorta) and enlargement of the hypoplastic ascending aorta. Engineering techniques, both computational and experimental, can aid in the understanding of the Norwood physiology and their correct implementation can potentially lead to refinement of the decision-making process, by means of patient-specific simulations. This paper presents some of the available tools that can corroborate clinical evidence by providing detailed insight into the fluid dynamics of the Norwood circulation as well as alternative surgical scenarios (i.e., virtual surgery). Patient-specific anatomies can be manufactured by means of rapid prototyping and such models can be inserted in experimental set-ups (mock circulatory loops) that can provide a valuable source of validation data as well as hydrodynamic information. Such models can be tuned to respond to differing the patient physiologies. Experimental set-ups can also be compatible with visualization techniques, like particle image velocimetry and cardiovascular magnetic resonance, further adding to the knowledge of the local fluid dynamics. Multi-scale computational models include detailed three-dimensional (3D) anatomical information coupled to a lumped parameter network representing the remainder of the circulation. These models output both overall hemodynamic parameters while also enabling to investigate the local fluid dynamics of the aortic arch or the shunt. As an alternative, pure lumped parameter models can also be employed to model Stage 1 palliation, taking advantage of a much lower computational cost, albeit missing the 3D anatomical component. Finally, analytical techniques, such as wave intensity analysis, can be employed to study the Norwood physiology, providing a mechanistic perspective on the ventriculo-arterial coupling for this specific surgical scenario. PMID:24400277

Library Circulation Systems: An Overview

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Surace, Cecily J.

1972-01-01

The model circulation system outlined is an on-line real time system in which the circulation file is created from the shelf list. The model extends beyond the operational limits of most existing circulation systems and can be considered a reflection of the current state of the art. (36 references) (Author/NH)

Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models.

PubMed

MacMartin, Douglas G; Tziperman, Eli

2014-09-08

Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input-output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe the dynamics of individual subsystem processes relevant to ENSO. Estimating process parameters allows the identification of compensating model errors that may lead to a seemingly realistic simulation in spite of incorrect model physics. This tool is applied here to the TAO array ocean data, the GFDL-CM2.1 and CCSM4 general circulation models, and to the Cane-Zebiak ENSO model. The delayed oscillator description is used to motivate a few relevant processes involved in the dynamics, although any other ENSO mechanism could be used instead. We identify several differences in the processes between the models and data that may be useful for model improvement. The transfer function methodology is also useful in understanding the dynamics and evaluating models of other climate processes.

Impacts of fine particulate matter on premature mortality under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Allen, R.; Lim, C. H.

2016-12-01

Climate change modulates concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, surface PM2.5 is significantly associated with respiratory diseases and premature mortality. In this study, we assess the response of PM2.5 concentration to climate change in the future (end of 21st century) and its effects on year of life lost (YLL) and premature mortality. We use outputs from five models participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) to evaluate climate change effects on PM2.5: for present climate with current aerosol emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, and for future climate, also with present-day aerosol emissions, but with end-of-the century greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea-ice. The results show that climate change is associated with an increase in PM2.5 concentration. Combined with global future population data from the United Nation (UN), we also find an increase in premature mortality and YLL.

Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley

2017-10-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modelling approach and current-generation general circulation model output under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Results show that by the middle of the twenty-first century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services, shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley M.

2016-01-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China.

PubMed

Sun, Wenchao; Wang, Jie; Li, Zhanjie; Yao, Xiaolei; Yu, Jingshan

2014-01-01

The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer.

Timescales of Land Surface Evapotranspiration Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, Russell; Entekhabi, Dara; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

1997-01-01

Soil and vegetation exert strong control over the evapotranspiration rate, which couples the land surface water and energy balances. A method is presented to quantify the timescale of this surface control using daily general circulation model (GCM) simulation values of evapotranspiration and precipitation. By equating the time history of evaporation efficiency (ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration) to the convolution of precipitation and a unit kernel (temporal weighting function), response functions are generated that can be used to characterize the timescales of evapotranspiration response for the land surface model (LSM) component of GCMS. The technique is applied to the output of two multiyear simulations of a GCM, one using a Surface-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer (SVAT) scheme and the other a Bucket LSM. The derived response functions show that the Bucket LSM's response is significantly slower than that of the SVAT across the globe. The analysis also shows how the timescales of interception reservoir evaporation, bare soil evaporation, and vegetation transpiration differ within the SVAT LSM.

Characterization of fluid physics effects on cardiovascular response to microgravity (G-572)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pantalos, George M.; Bennett, Thomas E.; Sharp, M. Keith; Woodruff, Stewart; Oleary, Sean; Gillars, Kevin; Lemon, Mark; Sojka, Jan

1995-01-01

The investigation of cardiovascular adaptation to space flight has seen substantial advancement in the last several years. In-flight echocardiographic measurements of astronaut cardiac function on the Space Shuttle have documented an initial increase, followed by a progressive reduction in both left ventricular volume index and stroke volume with a compensatory increase in heart rate to maintain cardiac output. To date, the reduced cardiac size and stroke volume have been presumed to be the consequence of the reduction in circulating fluid volume within a few days after orbital insertion. However, no specific mechanism for the reduced stroke volume has been identified. The following investigation proposes the use of a hydraulic model of the cardiovascular system to examine the possibility that the observed reduction in stroke volume may, in part, be related to fluid physics effects on heart function. The automated model is being prepared to fly as a Get Away Special (GAS) payload within the next year.

Bioimpedance harmonic analysis as a tool to simultaneously assess circulation and nervous control.

PubMed

Mudraya, I S; Revenko, S V; Nesterov, A V; Gavrilov, I Yu; Kirpatovsky, V I

2011-07-01

Multicycle harmonic (Fourier) analysis of bioimpedance was employed to simultaneously assess circulation and neural activity in visceral (rat urinary bladder) and somatic (human finger) organs. The informative value of the first cardiac harmonic of the bladder impedance as an index of bladder circulation is demonstrated. The individual reactions of normal and obstructive bladders in response to infusion cystometry were recorded. The potency of multicycle harmonic analysis of bioimpedance to assess sympathetic and parasympathetic neural control in urinary bladder is discussed. In the human finger, bioimpedance harmonic analysis revealed three periodic components at the rate of the heart beat, respiration and Mayer wave (0.1 Hz), which were observed under normal conditions and during blood flow arrest in the hand. The revealed spectrum peaks were explained by the changes in systemic blood pressure and in regional vascular tone resulting from neural vasomotor control. During normal respiration and circulation, two side cardiac peaks were revealed in a bioimpedance amplitude spectrum, whose amplitude reflected the depth of amplitude respiratory modulation of the cardiac output. During normal breathing, the peaks corresponding to the second and third cardiac harmonics were split, reflecting frequency respiratory modulation of the heart rate. Multicycle harmonic analysis of bioimpedance is a novel potent tool to examine the interaction between the respiratory and cardiovascular system and to simultaneously assess regional circulation and neural influences in visceral and somatic organs.

Where Is the “Optimal” Fontan Hemodynamics?

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Fontan circulation is generally characterized by high central venous pressure, low cardiac output, and slightly low arterial oxygen saturation, and it is quite different from normal biventricular physiology. Therefore, when a patient with congenital heart disease is selected as a candidate for this type of circulation, the ultimate goals of therapy consist of 2 components. One is a smooth adjustment to the new circulation, and the other is long-term circulatory stabilization after adjustment. When either of these goals is not achieved, the patient is categorized as having “failed” Fontan circulation, and the prognosis is dismal. For the first goal of smooth adjustment, a lot of effort has been made to establish criteria for patient selection and intensive management immediately after the Fontan operation. For the second goal of long-term circulatory stabilization, there is limited evidence of successful strategies for long-term hemodynamic stabilization. Furthermore, there have been no data on optimal hemodynamics in Fontan circulation that could be used as a reference for patient management. Although small clinical trials and case reports are available, the results cannot be generalized to the majority of Fontan survivors. We recently reported the clinical and hemodynamic characteristics of early and late failing Fontan survivors and their association with all-cause mortality. This knowledge could provide insight into the complex Fontan pathophysiology and might help establish a management strategy for long-term hemodynamic stabilization. PMID:29035429

Airway and Pulmonary β2-Adrenergic Vasodilatory Function in Current Smokers and Never Smokers.

PubMed

Hurwitz, Barry E; Mendes, Eliana S; Schmid, Andreas; Parker, Meela; Arana, Johana; Gonzalez, Alex; Wanner, Adam

2017-03-01

Cigarette smoking has been associated with diminished vasodilatory function in the airway circulation. It is possible that cigarette smoking similarly affects the pulmonary circulation before resting pulmonary circulatory abnormalities become manifested. The aim of this study was to compare the acute effect of inhaled albuterol on airway and pulmonary hemodynamic function as an index of β 2 -adrenoceptor-mediated vasodilation in smokers and never smokers. In 30 adults, airway and pulmonary vascular function was assessed before and 15 min after albuterol inhalation (270 μg). From mean systemic arterial pressure, cardiac output, airway blood flow, and mean pulmonary arterial pressure, airway vascular resistance (AVR) and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) were derived. Albuterol induced a substantial drop in mean (± SE) PVR (-67.2% ± 5%), with no difference between groups. In contrast, the albuterol-induced decrease in AVR was significantly greater in never smokers than in smokers (-28.6% ± 3% vs -3.1% ± 6%; P < .02). These results are consistent with a dysfunction in a β 2 -adrenergic signaling pathway mediating vasorelaxation in the airway circulation of current smokers. The vasodilatory deficit in the airway circulation but not in the pulmonary circulation could be related to local differences in the impact of cigarette smoke on the vascular endothelium. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

RFQ (radio-frequency quadrupole) accelerator tuning system

DOEpatents

Bolie, V.W.

1988-04-12

A cooling system is provided for maintaining a preselected operating temperature in a device, which may be an RFQ accelerator, having a variable heat removal requirement, by circulating a cooling fluid through a cooling system remote from the device. Internal sensors in the device enable an estimated error signal to be generated from parameters which are indicative of the heat removal requirement from the device. Sensors are provided at predetermined locations in the cooling system for outputting operational temperature signals. Analog and digital computers define a control signal functionally related to the temperature signals and the estimated error signal, where the control signal is defined effective to return the device to the preselected operating temperature in a stable manner. The cooling system includes a first heat sink responsive to a first portion of the control signal to remove heat from a major portion of the circulating fluid. A second heat sink is responsive to a second portion of the control to remove heat from a minor portion of the circulating fluid. The cooled major and minor portions of the circulating fluid are mixed in responsive to a mixing portion of the control signal, which is effective to proportion the major and minor portions of the circulating fluid to establish a mixed fluid temperature which is effective to define the preselected operating temperature for the remote device. 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Improving hemodynamics of cardiovascular system under a novel intraventricular assist device support via modeling and simulations.

PubMed

Zhu, Shidong; Luo, Lin; Yang, Bibo; Li, Xinghui; Wang, Xiaohao

2017-12-01

Ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are increasingly recognized for supporting blood circulation in heart failure patients who are non-transplant eligible. Because of its volume, the traditional pulsatile device is not easy to implant intracorporeally. Continuous flow LVADs (CF-LVADs) reduce arterial pulsatility and only offer continuous flow, which is different from physiological flow, and may cause long-term complications in the cardiovascular system. The aim of this study was to design a new pulsatile assist device that overcomes this disadvantage, and to test this device in the cardiovascular system. Firstly, the input and output characteristics of the new device were tested in a simple cardiovascular mock system. A detailed mathematical model was established by fitting the experimental data. Secondly, the model was tested in four pathological cases, and was simulated and coupled with a fifth-order cardiovascular system and a new device model using Matlab software. Using assistance of the new device, we demonstrated that the left ventricle pressure, aortic pressure, and aortic flow of heart failure patients improved to the levels of a healthy individual. Especially, in state IV level heart failure patients, the systolic blood pressure increased from 81.34 mmHg to 132.1 mmHg, whereas the diastolic blood pressure increased from 54.28 mmHg to 78.7 mmHg. Cardiac output increased from 3.21 L/min to 5.16 L/min. The newly-developed assist device not only provided a physiological flow that was similar to healthy individuals, but also effectively improved the ability of the pathological ventricular volume. Finally, the effects of the new device on other hemodynamic parameters are discussed.

Higher cerebral oxygen saturation may provide higher urinary output during continuous regional cerebral perfusion.

PubMed

Miyamoto, Takashi; Miyaji, Kagami; Okamoto, Hirotsugu; Kohira, Satoshi; Tomoyasu, Takahiro; Inoue, Nobuyuki; Ohara, Kuniyoshi

2008-10-31

We examined the hypothesis that higher cerebral oxygen saturation (rSO2) during RCP is correlated with urinary output. Between December 2002 and August 2006, 12 patients aged 3 to 61 days and weighing 2.6 to 3.4 kg underwent aortic arch repair with RCP. Urinary output and rSO2 were analyzed retrospectively. Data were assigned to either of 2 groups according to their corresponding rSO2: Group A (rSO2 < or = 75%) and Group B (rSO2 < 75%). Seven and 5 patients were assigned to Group A and Group B, respectively.Group A was characterized by mean radial arterial pressure (37.9 +/- 9.6 vs 45.8 +/- 7.8 mmHg; P = 0.14) and femoral arterial pressure (6.7 +/- 6.1 vs 20.8 +/- 14.6 mmHg; P = 0.09) compared to Group B. However, higher urinary output during CPB (1.03 +/- 1.18 vs 0.10 +/- 0.15 ml.kg-1.h-1; P = 0.03). Furthermore our results indicate that a higher dose of Chlorpromazine was used in Group A (2.9 +/- 1.4 vs 1.7 +/- 1.0 mg/kg; P = 0.03). Higher cerebral oxygenation may provide higher urinary output due to higher renal blood flow through collateral circulation.

Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar; Nayan, Zuliana Binti Hj; Rahman, Ena Kartina Abdul

2017-06-01

Climate is changing and evidence suggests that the impact of climate change would influence our everyday lives, including agriculture, built environment, energy management, food security and water resources. Brunei Darussalam located within the heart of Borneo will be affected both in terms of precipitation and temperature. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend and assess how important climate indicators like temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future in order to minimise its impact. This study assesses the application of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) results for maximum and minimum temperatures along with precipitation in Brunei Darussalam. It investigates future climate changes based on numerous scenarios using Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs. The SDSM outputs were improved with the implementation of bias correction and also using a monthly sub-model instead of an annual sub-model. The outcomes of this assessment show that monthly sub-model performed better than the annual sub-model. This study indicates a satisfactory applicability for generation of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and precipitation for future periods of 2017-2046 and 2047-2076. All considered models and the scenarios were consistent in predicting increasing trend of maximum temperature, increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreasing trend of precipitations. Maximum overall trend of Tmax was also observed for CanESM2 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The increasing trend is 0.014 °C per year. Accordingly, by 2076, the highest prediction of average maximum temperatures is that it will increase by 1.4 °C. The same model predicts an increasing trend of Tmin of 0.004 °C per year, while the highest trend is seen under CGCM3-A2 scenario which is 0.009 °C per year. The highest change predicted for the Tmin is therefore 0.9 °C by 2076. The precipitation showed a maximum trend of decrease of 12.7 mm year. It is also seen in the output using CanESM2 data that precipitation will be more chaotic with some reaching 4800 mm per year and also producing low rainfall about 1800 mm per year. All GCMs considered are consistent in predicting it is very likely that Brunei is expected to experience more warming as well as less frequent precipitation events but with a possibility of intensified and drastically high rainfalls in the future.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M. K.; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J.; Shanley, James B.

2017-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J; Shanley, James B

2017-02-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How To Assess The Future Tree-Cover Potential For Reforestation Planning In Semi-Arid Regions? An Attempt Using The Vegetation Model ORCHIDEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.

2015-12-01

More and more reforestation projects are undertaken at local to continental scales to fight desertification, to address development challenges, and to improve local living conditions in tropical semi-arid regions. These regions are very sensitive to climatic changes and the potential for maintaining tree-covers will be altered in the next decades. Therefore, reforestation planning needs predicting the future "climatic tree-cover potential": the optimum tree-fraction sustainable in future climatic states. Global circulation models projections provide possible future climatologies for the 21st century. These can be used at the global scale to force a land-surface model, which in turn simulates the vegetation development under these conditions. The tree cover leading to an optimum development may then be identified. We propose here to run a state-of-the-art model and to assess the span and the relevance of the answers that can be obtained for reforestation planning. The ORCHIDEE vegetation model is chosen here to allow a multi-criteria evaluation of the optimum cover, as it returns surface climate state variables as well as vegetation functioning and biomass products. It is forced with global climate data (WFDEI and CRU) for the 20th century and models projections (CMIP5 outputs) for the 21st century. At the grid-cell resolution of the forcing climate data, tree-covers ranging from 0 to 100% are successively prescribed. A set of indicators is then derived from the model outputs, meant for modulating reforestation strategies according to the regional priorities (e.g. maximize the biomass production or decrease the surface air temperature). The choice of indicators and the relevance of the final answers provided will be collectively assessed by the climate scientists and reforestation project management experts from the KINOME social enterprise (http://en.kinome.fr). Such feedback will point towards the model most urging needs for improvement.

Satellite-enhanced dynamical downscaling for the analysis of extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana M. B.

2016-09-01

The use of regional models in the downscaling of general circulation models provides a strategy to generate more detailed climate information. In that case, boundary-forcing techniques can be useful to maintain the large-scale features from the coarse-resolution global models in agreement with the inner modes of the higher-resolution regional models. Although those procedures might improve dynamics, downscaling via regional modeling still aims for better representation of physical processes. With the purpose of improving dynamics and physical processes in regional downscaling of global reanalysis, the Regional Spectral Model—originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction—employs a newly reformulated scale-selective bias correction, together with the 3-hourly assimilation of the satellite-based precipitation estimates constructed from the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique. The two-scheme technique for the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis can be applied in analyses of environmental disasters and risk assessment, with hourly outputs, and resolution of about 25 km. Here the satellite-enhanced dynamical downscaling added value is demonstrated in simulations of the first reported hurricane in the western South Atlantic Ocean basin through comparisons with global reanalyses and satellite products available in ocean areas.

Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

2017-11-01

Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

Understanding the influence of orography on the precipitation diurnal cycle and the associated atmospheric processes in the central Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junquas, C.; Takahashi, K.; Condom, T.; Espinoza, J.-C.; Chavez, S.; Sicart, J.-E.; Lebel, T.

2018-06-01

In the tropical Andes, the identification of the present synoptic mechanisms associated with the diurnal cycle of precipitation and its interaction with orography is a key step to understand how the atmospheric circulation influences the patterns of precipitation variability on longer time-scales. In particular we aim to better understand the combination of the local and regional mechanisms controlling the diurnal cycle of summertime (DJF) precipitation in the Northern Central Andes (NCA) region of Southern Peru. A climatology of the diurnal cycle is obtained from 15 wet seasons (2000-2014) of 3-hourly TRMM-3B42 data (0.25° × 0.25°) and swath data from the TRMM-2A25 precipitation radar product (5 km × 5 km). The main findings are: (1) in the NCA region, the diurnal cycle shows a maximum precipitation occurring during the day (night) in the western (eastern) side of the Andes highlands, (2) in the valleys of the Cuzco region and in the Amazon slope of the Andes the maximum (minimum) precipitation occurs during the night (day). The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) regional atmospheric model is used to simulate the mean diurnal cycle in the NCA region for the same period at 27 km and 9 km horizontal grid spacing and 3-hourly output, and at 3 km only for the month of January 2010 in the Cuzco valleys. Sensitivity experiments were also performed to investigate the effect of the topography on the observed rainfall patterns. The model reproduces the main diurnal precipitation features. The main atmospheric processes identified are: (1) the presence of a regional-scale cyclonic circulation strengthening during the afternoon, (2) diurnal thermally driven circulations at local scale, including upslope (downslope) wind and moisture transport during the day (night), (3) channelization of the upslope moisture transport from the Amazon along the Apurimac valleys toward the western part of the cordillera.

Secondary Circulations between an isolated semi-arid Pine Forest and the surrounding Shrub Land: A LES Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeniger, K.; De Roo, F.; Huq, S.; Brugger, P.; Mauder, M.

2017-12-01

Afforestation in semi-arid regions is a topic of growing interest in times of changing climate. However, due to the extreme environmental conditions in these regions, survival of artificial eco-systems is not guaranteed a priori and therefore needs to be investigated. As an example of an artificially planted semi-arid forest, we study the Israeli pine forest Yatir, which is located at the northern edge of the Negev desert. The coincidence of large global radiation with the low forest albedo results in net radiation intensities of more than 700 W m-2, requiring an efficient mechanism of heat removal, indispensable for tree survival. In the distinct dry summer periods evaporative cooling becomes negligible, while a substantially enhanced sensible heat flux removes the largest part of the incoming energy load. This enhanced sensible heat flux above the forest is believed to be amplified by the albedo difference between the forest and the surrounding shrub land, generating secondary circulations between these two eco-systems. The focus of our work is studying the interconnection of enhanced sensible heat flux and secondary circulations in varying conditions. We perform large eddy simulations (LES) for a region that is sufficiently large to model the forest and parts of the surrounding shrub land (20 km x 20 km) with a grid resolution of 2.5 m. This fine resolution allows us to explicitly resolve the forest canopy, to obtain more realistic results than by applying roughness length parametrizations. The LES are initialized by measured data from several field campaigns, eddy covariance towers and satellite images. By varying the background wind and the underlying topography in several LES, we study the influence of those parameters on the canopy-atmosphere exchange. Additional, we compare the LES output to LIDAR measurements taken above and upstream of the forest for model validation.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Idealized WRF model sensitivity simulations of sea breeze types and their effects on offshore windfields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, C. J.; Dorling, S. R.; von Glasow, R.; Bacon, J.

2013-01-01

The behaviour and characteristics of the marine component of sea breeze cells have received little attention relative to their onshore counterparts. Yet there is a growing interest and dependence on the offshore wind climate from, for example, a wind energy perspective. Using idealized model experiments, we investigate the sea breeze circulation at scales which approximate to those of the southern North Sea, a region of major ongoing offshore wind farm development. We also contrast the scales and characteristics of the pure and the little known corkscrew and backdoor sea breeze types, where the type is pre-defined by the orientation of the synoptic scale flow relative to the shoreline. We find, crucially, that pure sea breezes, in contrast to corkscrew and backdoor types, can lead to substantial wind speed reductions offshore and that the addition of a second eastern coastline emphasises this effect through generation of offshore "calm zones". The offshore extent of all sea breeze types is found to be sensitive to both the influence of Coriolis acceleration and to the boundary layer scheme selected. These extents range, for example for a pure sea breeze produced in a 2 m s-1 offshore gradient wind, from 0 km to 21 km between the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino and the Yonsei State University schemes respectively. The corkscrew type restricts the development of a backdoor sea breeze on the opposite coast and is also capable of traversing a 100 km offshore domain even under high along-shore gradient wind speed (>15 m s-1) conditions. Realistic variations in sea surface skin temperature and initializing vertical thermodynamic profile do not significantly alter the resulting circulation, though the strengths of the simulated sea breezes are modulated if the effective land-sea thermal contrast is altered. We highlight how sea breeze impacts on circulation need to be considered in order to improve the accuracy of both assessments of the offshore wind energy climate and forecasts of wind energy output.

A compact Nd:YAG DPSSL using diamond-cooled technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Hsian P.; Wang, Yu-Lin; Hasson, Victor H.; Trainor, Daniel W.

2005-03-01

In our diamond-cooled approach, thin disks of laser gain material, e.g., Nd:YAG, are alternated between thin disks of single crystal synthetic diamond whose heat conductivity is over 2000 W/m-°K. The gain medium is face-pumped (along the optical axis) by the output of laser diode arrays. This optical configuration produces heat transfer from Nd:YAG to the diamond, in the direction of the optical axis, and then heat is rapidly conducted radially outward through the diamond to the cooling fluid circulating at the circumference of the diamond/YAG assembly. This geometry effectively removes the heat from the gain material in a manner that permits the attainment of high power output with excellent beam quality.

Non-dimensional physics of pulsatile cardiovascular networks and energy efficiency.

PubMed

Yigit, Berk; Pekkan, Kerem

2016-01-01

In Nature, there exist a variety of cardiovascular circulation networks in which the energetic ventricular load has both steady and pulsatile components. Steady load is related to the mean cardiac output (CO) and the haemodynamic resistance of the peripheral vascular system. On the other hand, the pulsatile load is determined by the simultaneous pressure and flow waveforms at the ventricular outlet, which in turn are governed through arterial wave dynamics (transmission) and pulse decay characteristics (windkessel effect). Both the steady and pulsatile contributions of the haemodynamic power load are critical for characterizing/comparing disease states and for predicting the performance of cardiovascular devices. However, haemodynamic performance parameters vary significantly from subject to subject because of body size, heart rate and subject-specific CO. Therefore, a 'normalized' energy dissipation index, as a function of the 'non-dimensional' physical parameters that govern the circulation networks, is needed for comparative/integrative biological studies and clinical decision-making. In this paper, a complete network-independent non-dimensional formulation that incorporates pulsatile flow regimes is developed. Mechanical design variables of cardiovascular flow systems are identified and the Buckingham Pi theorem is formally applied to obtain the corresponding non-dimensional scaling parameter sets. Two scaling approaches are considered to address both the lumped parameter networks and the distributed circulation components. The validity of these non-dimensional number sets is tested extensively through the existing empirical allometric scaling laws of circulation systems. Additional validation studies are performed using a parametric numerical arterial model that represents the transmission and windkessel characteristics, which are adjusted to represent different body sizes and non-dimensional haemodynamic states. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed non-dimensional indices are independent of body size for healthy conditions, but are sensitive to deviations caused by off-design disease states that alter the energetic load. Sensitivity simulations are used to identify the relationship between pulsatile power loss and non-dimensional characteristics, and optimal operational states are computed. © 2016 The Author(s).

Improving Representation of Tropical Cloud Overlap in GCMs Based on Cloud-Resolving Model Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Xianwen; Zhang, Hua; Satoh, Masaki; Zhao, Shuyun

2018-04-01

The decorrelation length ( L cf) has been widely used to describe the behavior of vertical overlap of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs); however, it has been a challenge to associate L cf with the large-scale meteorological conditions during cloud evolution. This study explored the relationship between L cf and the strength of atmospheric convection in the tropics based on output from a global cloud-resolving model. L cf tends to increase with vertical velocity in the mid-troposphere ( w 500) at locations of ascent, but shows little or no dependency on w 500 at locations of descent. A representation of L cf as a function of vertical velocity is obtained, with a linear regression in ascending regions and a constant value in descending regions. This simple and dynamic-related representation of L cf leads to a significant improvement in simulation of both cloud cover and radiation fields compared with traditional overlap treatments. This work presents a physically justifiable approach to depicting cloud overlap in the tropics in GCMs.

Snow Cover and Precipitation Impacts on Dry Season Streamflow in the Lower Mekong Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Bell, A. R.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Buckley, B. M.

2012-01-01

Climate change impacts on dry season streamflow in the Mekong River are relatively understudied, despite the fact that water availability during this time is critically important for agricultural and ecological systems. Analyses of two gauging stations (Vientiane and Kratie) in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) show significant positive correlations between dry season (March through May, MAM) discharge and upper basin snow cover and local precipitation. Using snow cover, precipitation, and upstream discharge as predictors, we develop skillful regression models for MAM streamflow at Vientiane and Kratie, and force these models with output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) experiments for the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The GCM simulations predict divergent trends in snow cover (decreasing) and precipitation (increasing) over the twenty-first century, driving overall negligible long-term trends in dry season streamflow. Our study demonstrates how future changes in dry season streamflow in the LMB will depend on changes in snow cover and precipitation, factors that will need to be considered when assessing the full basin response to other climatic and non-climatic drivers.

Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

2016-09-01

We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

Laser Gyro Attitude Control System Feasibility Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-04-24

GYROS (Distinguishable by method used to circumvent lock-in phenomenon) M ECHANICAL DITHER ,. MAGNETIC MIRROR DILAG (MULTI-OSCILLATOR) Figure 1...by a multiple transit of a light beam within a closed optical cavity (a three- mirror system). The beam traverses the cavity continuously; after each...circulation a small fraction of the beam intensity is output at one of the mirrors . Each transit incurs a phase % %0 ? % o I" us ol *..~% % %~*,~*)*f

Superiority of desflurane over sevoflurane and isoflurane in the presence of pressure-overload right ventricle hypertrophy in rats.

PubMed

Blaudszun, Grégoire; Morel, Denis R

2012-11-01

Pulmonary hypertension and associated pressure-overload right ventricular (RV) hypertrophy represent a tremendous challenge for the anesthesiologist, as optimal perioperative management is mandatory. However, the ideal anesthetic agent remains unknown because scientific evidence is lacking. Twenty-eight rats were randomly assigned to a control or a monocrotaline group (60 mg kg). Four weeks later, animals were anesthetized, instrumented with a RV conductance catheter, and underwent well-controlled dose-responses to isoflurane, desflurane, and sevoflurane inhalation (minimum alveolar concentrations 0.5, 1.0, 1.5). Compared with controls, rats injected with monocrotaline presented with RV hypertrophy, increased afterload, and contractility, without change in cardiac output. The ratio of pressures in the right over the left circulation increased. The halogenated volatiles differently altered hemodynamics. Sevoflurane reduced RV contractility (more than 50%) and the right over left pressures ratio increased (from 0.41 ± 0.08 [SD] to 0.82 ± 0.14; P < 0.0001) secondary to profound concomitant systemic vasodilation, demonstrating a critical pressure gradient between right and left circulations. Despite significantly higher RV systolic pressures and afterload, desflurane decreased RV contractility much less (<10%; P < 0.0001 vs. sevoflurane) and maintained the right over left pressures ratio at more favorable values (0.47 ± 0.07; P < 0.0001 vs. sevoflurane). Isoflurane presented intermediate effects. In the presence of pressure-overload RV hypertrophy, hemodynamics are better preserved under desflurane inhalation, whereas sevoflurane-and to a lesser extent isoflurane-cause large discrepancies on the left and right circulations, raising the right over left pressures ratio to critical levels despite a conserved cardiac output.

Cavopulmonary support with a microaxial pump for the failing Fontan physiology.

PubMed

Zhu, Jiaquan; Kato, Hideyuki; Fu, Yaqin Y; Zhao, Lisa; Foreman, Celeste; Davey, Lisa; Weisel, Richard D; Van Arsdell, Glen S; Honjo, Osami

2015-01-01

The number of patients with the failing Fontan physiology is increasing. We tested a novel in situ microaxial pump (Impella) to support the failing atrio-pulmonary Fontan circulation in an acute pig model. A Fontan model was established in eight juvenile pigs by connecting the right atrium to the main pulmonary artery after tricuspid valve destruction. The Impella pump was inserted retrograde from the distal main pulmonary artery into the right atrium. Hemodynamics, blood gas, and echocardiographic data were compared among baseline, pure Fontan physiology (10 minutes), and mechanically assisted Fontan physiology (up to 12 hours). The Impella system generated a blood flow of 75-85 ml/kg/minute in six animals, and 55-65 ml/kg/minute in two animals. The mechanically assisted Fontan attained a significantly higher mean blood pressure (39.6 ± 7 vs. 24.7 ± 3.3 mm Hg, p < 0.01), lower central venous pressure (5 ± 2.4 vs. 12.8 ± 1.7 mm Hg, p < 0.01), and higher mixed venous saturation (60.4 ± 10.8 vs. 23.4 ± 8.4 mm Hg, p < 0.01) compared with pure Fontan physiology. Cardiac output and stroke volume were similar during baseline and mechanically assisted Fontan (p = not significant). This acute pig study demonstrated the feasibility of mechanical circulatory support in the failing Fontan physiology. The in situ microaxial pump maintained cardiac output while increasing blood pressure and reducing venous pressure.

A blood circulation model for reference man

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Williams, L.R.

This paper describes a dynamic blood circulation model that predicts the movement and gradual dispersal of a bolus of material in the circulation after its intravascular injection into an adult human. The main purpose of the model is to improve the dosimetry of internally deposited radionuclides that decay in the circulation to a significant extent. The total blood volume is partitioned into the blood contents of 24 separate organs or tissues, right heart chambers, left heart chambers, pulmonary circulation, arterial outflow to the systemic tissues (aorta and large arteries), and venous return from the systemic tissues (large veins). As amore » compromise between physical reality and computational simplicity, the circulation of blood is viewed as a system of first-order transfers between blood pools, with the delay time depending on the mean transit time across the pool. The model allows consideration of incomplete, tissue-dependent extraction of material during passage through the circulation and return of material from tissues to plasma.« less

Solar related waves in the Venusian atmosphere from the cloud tops to 100 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elson, L. S.

1983-01-01

A quasi-linear diagnostic model using observed solar-related temperatures and a specified solar mean circulation and surface structure to find the solar-related circulation above the clouds of Venus is presented. Despite the greater dependence of model-derived, solar-related circulation on the mean flow than is the case for terrestrial tides, as well as the uncertainty concerning this mean flow, significant conclusions are drawn for the solar-related circulation and thermal structure of Venus. An anomalously large response is found in the polar regions, due to the model's requirement of a process such as dissipation which will act as a major sink for momentum. Dissipation is specified in the model as Rayleigh friction with an unknown free parameter coefficient. In view of this, dissipation is either very efficient by terrestrial standards and accompanied by small solar-related circulation, or similar to that of earth and possessed of a circulation large enough to have an impact on the mean circulation.

Influence of Gravity on Blood Volume and Flow Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pendergast, D.; Olszowka, A.; Bednarczyk, E.; Shykoff, B.; Farhi, L.

1999-01-01

In our previous experiments during NASA Shuttle flights SLS 1 and 2 (9-15 days) and EUROMIR flights (30-90 days) we observed that pulmonary blood flow (cardiac output) was elevated initially, and surprisingly remained elevated for the duration of the flights. Stroke volume increased initially and then decreased, but was still above 1 Gz values. As venous return was constant, the changes in SV were secondary to modulation of heart rate. Mean blood pressure was at or slightly below 1 Gz levels in space, indicating a decrease in total peripheral resistance. It has been suggested that plasma volume is reduced in space, however cardiac output/venous return do not return to 1 Gz levels over the duration of flight. In spite of the increased cardiac output, central venous pressure was not elevated in space. These data suggest that there is a change in the basic relationship between cardiac output and central venous pressure, a persistent "hyperperfusion" and a re-distribution of blood flow and volume during space flight. Increased pulmonary blood flow has been reported to increase diffusing capacity in space, presumably due to the improved homogeneity of ventilation and perfusion. Other studies have suggested that ventilation may be independent of gravity, and perfusion may not be gravity- dependent. No data for the distribution of pulmonary blood volume were available for flight or simulated microgravity. Recent studies have suggested that the pulmonary vascular tree is influenced by sympathetic tone in a manner similar to that of the systemic system. This implies that the pulmonary circulation is dilated during microgravity and that the distribution of blood flow and volume may be influenced more by vascular control than by gravity. The cerebral circulation is influenced by sympathetic tone similarly to that of the systemic and pulmonary circulations; however its effects are modulated by cerebral autoregulation. Thus it is difficult to predict if cerebral perfusion is increased and if there is edema in space. Anecdotal evidence suggests there may be cerebral edema early in flight. Cerebral artery velocity has been shown to be elevated in simulated microgravity. The elevated cerebral artery velocity during simulated microgravity may reflect vasoconstriction of the arteries and not increased cerebral blood flow. The purpose of our investigations was to evaluate the effects of alterations in simulated gravity (+/-), resulting in changes in cardiac output (+/-), and on the blood flow and volume distribution in the lung and brain of human subjects. The first hypothesis of these studies was that blood flow and volume would be affected by gravity, but their distribution in the lung would be independent of gravity and due to vasoactivity changing vascular resistance in lung vessels. The vasodilitation of the lung vasculature (lower resistance) along with increased "compliance" of the heart could account for the absence of increased central venous pressure in microgravity. Secondly, we postulate that cerebral blood velocity is increased in microgravity due to large artery vasoconstriction, but that cerebral blood flow would be reduced due to autoregulation.

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the convective region in solar maximum compared to solar minimum for January and July. The column integrated humidity in all the model experiments with different composition, different solar forcing, and different ocean module, increased with solar forcing in the tropical band over the Atlantic sector in both seasons. The model's humidity response pattern is generally consistent with the paleoclimate records indicating increased precipitation near the equator that decreases at subtropical to middle latitudes with increased solar output. The differences in the zonally averaged vertical velocities indicate that the ascending branch of the Hadley cell is enhanced and shifted northward, and that the descending branch is weakened and shifted northward in the solar MAX simulation in January. The downward branch of the Hadley cell is strengthened in MAX in July. A possible link of climate response in midlatitudes to solar forcing is also presented by showing changes in zonal mean wind, changes in temperature gradient, and changes in E-P flux.

On the Specification of Upward-Propagating Tides for ICON Science Investigations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, Jeffrey M.; Zhang, Xiaoli; Hagan, Maura E.; England, Scott L.; Liu, Guiping; Gasperini, Federico

2017-10-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) will provide a physics-based context for the interpretation of ICON measurements. To optimize the realism of the model simulations, ICON wind and temperature measurements near the ˜97 km lower boundary of the TIEGCM will be used to specify the upward-propagating tidal spectrum at this altitude. This will be done by fitting a set of basis functions called Hough Mode Extensions (HMEs) to 27-day mean tidal winds and temperatures between 90 and 105 km altitude and between 12 °S and 42 °N latitude on a day-by-day basis. The current paper assesses the veracity of the HME fitting methodology given the restricted latitude sampling and the UT-longitude sampling afforded by the MIGHTI instrument viewing from the ICON satellite, which will be in a circular 27° inclination orbit. These issues are investigated using the output from a reanalysis-driven global circulation model, which contains realistic variability of the important tidal components, as a mock data set. ICON sampling of the model reveals that the 27-day mean diurnal and semidiurnal tidal components replicate well the 27-day mean tidal components obtained from full synoptic sampling of the model, but the terdiurnal tidal components are not faithfully reproduced. It is also demonstrated that reconstructed tidal components based on HME fitting to the model tides between 12 °S and 42 °N latitude provide good approximations to the major tidal components expected to be encountered during the ICON mission. This is because the constraints provided by fitting both winds and temperatures over the 90-105 km height range are adequate to offset the restricted sampling in latitude. The boundary conditions provided by the methodology described herein will greatly enhance the ability of the TIEGCM to provide a physical framework for interpreting atmosphere-ionosphere coupling in ICON observations due to atmospheric tides.

Modelling and parameterizing the influence of tides on ice-shelf melt rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jourdain, N.; Molines, J. M.; Le Sommer, J.; Mathiot, P.; de Lavergne, C.; Gurvan, M.; Durand, G.

2017-12-01

Significant Antarctic ice sheet thinning is observed in several sectors of Antarctica, in particular in the Amundsen Sea sector, where warm circumpolar deep waters affect basal melting. The later has the potential to trigger marine ice sheet instabilities, with an associated potential for rapid sea level rise. It is therefore crucial to simulate and understand the processes associated with ice-shelf melt rates. In particular, the absence of tides representation in ocean models remains a caveat of numerous ocean hindcasts and climate projections. In the Amundsen Sea, tides are relatively weak and the melt-induced circulation is stronger than the tidal circulation. Using a regional 1/12° ocean model of the Amundsen Sea, we nonetheless find that tides can increase melt rates by up to 36% in some ice-shelf cavities. Among the processes that can possibly affect melt rates, the most important is an increased exchange at the ice/ocean interface resulting from the presence of strong tidal currents along the ice drafts. Approximately a third of this effect is compensated by a decrease in thermal forcing along the ice draft, which is related to an enhanced vertical mixing in the ocean interior in presence of tides. Parameterizing the effect of tides is an alternative to the representation of explicit tides in an ocean model, and has the advantage not to require any filtering of ocean model outputs. We therefore explore different ways to parameterize the effects of tides on ice shelf melt. First, we compare several methods to impose tidal velocities along the ice draft. We show that getting a realistic spatial distribution of tidal velocities in important, and can be deduced from the barotropic velocities of a tide model. Then, we explore several aspects of parameterized tidal mixing to reproduce the tide-induced decrease in thermal forcing along the ice drafts.

Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

von Storch, H.; Zorita, E.; Cubasch, U.

A statistical strategy to deduct regional-scale features from climate general circulation model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to interrelate the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of large-scale atmospheric flow using the canonical correlation technique. The large-scale North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) is related to the regional, variable, winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to a good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to present from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. It ismore » shown that this observed relationship between these two variables is not well reproduced in the output of a general circulation model (GCM). The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous [open quotes]2 CO[sub 2][close quotes] doubling experiment, using the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field to predict Iberian rainfall yields, there is an insignificant increase of area-averaged rainfall of I mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the peninsula. In contrast, for the four GCM grid points representing the lberian Peninsula, the change is - 10 mm/month, with a minimum of - 19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A ([open quotes]business as usual[close quotes]) increase of CO[sub 2], the statistical-model results partially differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: in the experimental range of 100 years, the area-averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model), and by 9 mm/month (GCM); at the same time the amplitude of the interdecadal variability is quite different. 17 refs., 10 figs.« less

Characterization of the 3-Dimensional Mississippi River Plume Using a High Resolution Circulation Model Coupled with Ocean Color Imagery and Field Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto Ramos, I. M.; Arnone, R.; Cambazoglu, M. K.; Jacobs, G. A.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Howden, S. D.

2016-02-01

The Mississippi River Plume (MRP) is responsible for creating a highly dynamic environment in the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM). It is also responsible for the transport of rich-nutrient waters, physical and biological connectivity between the nGoM coastal waters to the deep ocean and other regions within the Gulf, and in cases of unfortunate events such as the Deep Horizon Oil Spill it may contribute to the transport and fate of hydrocarbons. The main objective of this work is to characterize the 3-Dimensional MRP using modeled salinity data from the 1 km resolution Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) and ocean color data (e.g., Chlorophyll-a) from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Field data from ships and gliders were used to validate the model and satellite data. An initial step for this study was to determine how to define a "river plume". We selected several study cases of 7 to 10 days in which the river plume was visible in the satellite imagery and examined the vertical salinity distribution at selected cross sections along the river plume. Different salinity thresholds were used to define a river plume and characterize the 3-D dilution and dispersion of the MRP during the study cases. The surface response as means of chlorophyll and light availability in relationship to the depth of the river plume was investigated. Our results improved understanding of the formation of the mixed layer depth in the MRP and how we can integrate model and satellite data to delineate the 3D structure of the river plume and better understand the biological surface response observed in the satellite imagery. The output of this study highlights how circulation models and satellite data can be integrated to better understand the connectivity, transport and fate of sediments, nutrients, and pollutants in the Gulf of Mexico.

Obtaining a Pragmatic Representation of Fire Disturbance in Dynamic Vegetation Models by Assimilating Earth Observation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun

2015-04-01

Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.

Major challenges for correlational ecological niche model projections to future climate conditions.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Cobos, Marlon E; Jiménez-García, Daniel

2018-06-20

Species-level forecasts of distributional potential and likely distributional shifts, in the face of changing climates, have become popular in the literature in the past 20 years. Many refinements have been made to the methodology over the years, and the result has been an approach that considers multiple sources of variation in geographic predictions, and how that variation translates into both specific predictions and uncertainty in those predictions. Although numerous previous reviews and overviews of this field have pointed out a series of assumptions and caveats associated with the methodology, three aspects of the methodology have important impacts but have not been treated previously in detail. Here, we assess those three aspects: (1) effects of niche truncation on model transfers to future climate conditions, (2) effects of model selection procedures on future-climate transfers of ecological niche models, and (3) relative contributions of several factors (replicate samples of point data, general circulation models, representative concentration pathways, and alternative model parameterizations) to overall variance in model outcomes. Overall, the view is one of caution: although resulting predictions are fascinating and attractive, this paradigm has pitfalls that may bias and limit confidence in niche model outputs as regards the implications of climate change for species' geographic distributions. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

A computer model of the pediatric circulatory system for testing pediatric assist devices.

PubMed

Giridharan, Guruprasad A; Koenig, Steven C; Mitchell, Michael; Gartner, Mark; Pantalos, George M

2007-01-01

Lumped parameter computer models of the pediatric circulatory systems for 1- and 4-year-olds were developed to predict hemodynamic responses to mechanical circulatory support devices. Model parameters, including resistance, compliance and volume, were adjusted to match hemodynamic pressure and flow waveforms, pressure-volume loops, percent systole, and heart rate of pediatric patients (n = 6) with normal ventricles. Left ventricular failure was modeled by adjusting the time-varying compliance curve of the left heart to produce aortic pressures and cardiac outputs consistent with those observed clinically. Models of pediatric continuous flow (CF) and pulsatile flow (PF) ventricular assist devices (VAD) and intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) were developed and integrated into the heart failure pediatric circulatory system models. Computer simulations were conducted to predict acute hemodynamic responses to PF and CF VAD operating at 50%, 75% and 100% support and 2.5 and 5 ml IABP operating at 1:1 and 1:2 support modes. The computer model of the pediatric circulation matched the human pediatric hemodynamic waveform morphology to within 90% and cardiac function parameters with 95% accuracy. The computer model predicted PF VAD and IABP restore aortic pressure pulsatility and variation in end-systolic and end-diastolic volume, but diminish with increasing CF VAD support.

Simulating physiological interactions in a hybrid system of mathematical models.

PubMed

Kretschmer, Jörn; Haunsberger, Thomas; Drost, Erick; Koch, Edmund; Möller, Knut

2014-12-01

Mathematical models can be deployed to simulate physiological processes of the human organism. Exploiting these simulations, reactions of a patient to changes in the therapy regime can be predicted. Based on these predictions, medical decision support systems (MDSS) can help in optimizing medical therapy. An MDSS designed to support mechanical ventilation in critically ill patients should not only consider respiratory mechanics but should also consider other systems of the human organism such as gas exchange or blood circulation. A specially designed framework allows combining three model families (respiratory mechanics, cardiovascular dynamics and gas exchange) to predict the outcome of a therapy setting. Elements of the three model families are dynamically combined to form a complex model system with interacting submodels. Tests revealed that complex model combinations are not computationally feasible. In most patients, cardiovascular physiology could be simulated by simplified models decreasing computational costs. Thus, a simplified cardiovascular model that is able to reproduce basic physiological behavior is introduced. This model purely consists of difference equations and does not require special algorithms to be solved numerically. The model is based on a beat-to-beat model which has been extended to react to intrathoracic pressure levels that are present during mechanical ventilation. The introduced reaction to intrathoracic pressure levels as found during mechanical ventilation has been tuned to mimic the behavior of a complex 19-compartment model. Tests revealed that the model is able to represent general system behavior comparable to the 19-compartment model closely. Blood pressures were calculated with a maximum deviation of 1.8 % in systolic pressure and 3.5 % in diastolic pressure, leading to a simulation error of 0.3 % in cardiac output. The gas exchange submodel being reactive to changes in cardiac output showed a resulting deviation of less than 0.1 %. Therefore, the proposed model is usable in combinations where cardiovascular simulation does not have to be detailed. Computing costs have been decreased dramatically by a factor 186 compared to a model combination employing the 19-compartment model.

Control of stress-induced persistent anxiety by an extra-amygdala septohypothalamic circuit

PubMed Central

Anthony, Todd E.; Dee, Nick; Bernard, Amy; Lerchner, Walter; Heintz, Nathaniel; Anderson, David J.

2014-01-01

The extended amygdala has dominated research on the neural circuitry of fear and anxiety, but the septo-hippocampal axis plays an important role as well. The lateral septum (LS) is thought to suppress fear and anxiety, through its outputs to the hypothalamus. However, this structure has not yet been dissected using modern tools. The type 2 CRF receptor (Crfr2) marks a subset of LS neurons, whose functional connectivity we have investigated using optogenetics. Crfr2+ cells include GABAergic projection neurons that connect with the anterior hypothalamus. Surprisingly, we find that these LS outputs enhance stress-induced behavioral measures of anxiety. Furthermore, transient activation of Crfr2+ neurons promotes, while inhibition suppresses, persistent anxious behaviors. LS Crfr2+ outputs also positively regulate circulating corticosteroid levels. These data identify a subset of LS projection neurons that promote, rather than suppress, stress-induced behavioral and endocrinological dimensions of persistent anxiety states, and provide a cellular point-of-entry to LS circuitry. PMID:24485458

Influence of synoptic weather patterns on solar irradiance variability in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parding, Kajsa; Hinkelman, Laura; Liepert, Beate; Ackerman, Thomas; Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Asle Olseth, Jan

2014-05-01

Solar radiation is important for many aspects of existence on Earth, including the biosphere, the hydrological cycle, and creatures living on the planet. Previous studies have reported decadal trends in observational records of surface shortwave (SW) irradiance around the world, too strong to be caused by varying solar output. These observed decadal trends have been dubbed "solar dimming and brightening" and are believed to be related to changes in atmospheric aerosols and cloud cover. Because the observed solar variability coincides with qualitative air pollution histories, the dimming and brightening have become almost synonymous with shortwave attenuation by anthropogenic aerosols. However, there are indications that atmospheric circulation patterns have influenced the dimming and brightening in some regions, e.g., Alaska and Scandinavia. In this work, we focus on the role of atmospheric circulation patterns in modifying shortwave irradiance. An examination of European SW irradiance data from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) shows that while there are periods of predominantly decreasing (~1970-1985) and increasing (~1985-2007) SW irradiance, the changes are not spatially uniform within Europe and in a majority of locations not statistically significant. To establish a connection between weather patterns and sunshine, regression models of SW irradiance are fitted using a daily classification of European weather called Grosswetterlagen (GWL). The GWL reconstructions of shortwave irradiance represent the part of the solar variability that is related to large scale weather patterns, which should be effectively separated from the influence of varying anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The correlation (R) between observed and reconstruced SW irradiance is between 0.31 and 0.75, depending on station and season, all statistically significant (p<0.05, estimated with a bootstrap test). In central and eastern parts of Europe, the observed decadal SW variability is poorly represented by the GWL models, but in northern Europe, the GWL model recreates observed decadal solar variability well. This finding suggests that natural and/or anthropogenic variations in circulation patterns have influenced solar dimming and brightening to a higher degree in the north than in the rest of Europe.

Effects of 27-day averaged tidal forcing on the thermosphere-ionosphere as examined by the TIEGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Forbes, J. M.; Hagan, M. E.

2016-12-01

The variability of the ionosphere and thermosphere is influenced by solar and geomagnetic forcing and by lower atmosphere coupling. During the last solar minimum low- and mid-latitude ionospheric observations have shown strong longitudinal signals which are associated with upward propagating tides. Progress has been made in explaining observed ionospheric and thermospheric variations by investigating possible coupling mechanisms e.g., wind dynamo, propagation of tides into the upper thermosphere, global circulation changes, and compositional effects. To fully understand the vertical coupling a comprehensive set of simultaneous measurements of key quantities is missing. The Ionospheric Connection (ICON) explorer will provide such a data set and the data interpretation will be supported by numerical modeling to investigate the lower to upper atmosphere coupling. Due to ICON's orbit, 27 days of measurements are needed to cover all longitudes and local times and to be able to derive tidal components. In this presentation we employ the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) to evaluate the influence of the 27-day processing window on the ionosphere and thermosphere state. Specifically, we compare TIEGCM simulations that are forced at its 97 km lower boundary by daily tidal fields from 2009 MERRA-forced TIME-GCM output [Häusler et al., 2015], and by the corresponding 27-day mean tidal fields. Apart from the expected reduced day-to-day variability when using 27-day averaged tidal forcing, the simulations indicate net NmF2 changes at low latitudes, which vary with season. First results indicate that compositional effects may influence the Nmf2 modifications. We will quantify the effect of using a 27-day averaged diurnal tidal forcing versus daily ones on the equatorial vertical drift, low and mid-latitude NmF2 and hmF2, global circulation, and composition. The possible causes for the simulated changes will be examined. The result of this study will be important for the comparison of the ICON observations with the accompanying ICON-TIEGCM simulations and guide the model-data interpretation.

Assessment of Surface Air Temperature over China Using Multi-criterion Model Ensemble Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Zhu, Q.; Su, L.; He, X.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

The General Circulation Models (GCMs) are designed to simulate the present climate and project future trends. It has been noticed that the performances of GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over different regions. Model ensemble techniques have been developed to post-process the GCMs' outputs and improve their prediction reliabilities. To evaluate the performances of GCMs, root-mean-square error, correlation coefficient, and uncertainty are commonly used statistical measures. However, the simultaneous achievements of these satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed when using many model ensemble techniques. Meanwhile, uncertainties and future scenarios are critical for Water-Energy management and operation. In this study, a new multi-model ensemble framework was proposed. It uses a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm, termed Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization with Principle Component Analysis and Crowding Distance (MOSPD), to derive optimal GCM ensembles and demonstrate the trade-offs among various solutions. Such trade-off information was further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistical measures. A case study was conducted to optimize the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over seven geographical regions of China for the historical period (1900-2005) and future projection (2006-2100). The results showed that the ensemble solutions derived with MOSPD algorithm are superior over the simple model average and any single model output during the historical simulation period. For the future prediction, the proposed ensemble framework identified that the largest SAT change would occur in the South Central China under RCP 2.6 scenario, North Eastern China under RCP 4.5 scenario, and North Western China under RCP 8.5 scenario, while the smallest SAT change would occur in the Inner Mongolia under RCP 2.6 scenario, South Central China under RCP 4.5 scenario, and South Central China under RCP 8.5 scenario.

Respiratory exacerbation in a young adult with cystic fibrosis and tricuspid atresia.

PubMed

Wood, Jamie; Sawyer, Abbey; Mulrennan, Siobhain; Bullock, Andrew

2018-07-01

Tricuspid atresia (TAt) is a complex congenital heart defect (CHD) characterized by the absence of the tricuspid valve and right ventricular hypoplasia requiring surgery in childhood, the Fontan procedure. We present a case of a 21-year-old male with TAt and cystic fibrosis (CF), who underwent a Fontan procedure in childhood, presenting to an adult CF clinic with severe deterioration in his respiratory status and multi-organ dysfunction associated with CF. This report describes problems associated with the management of a CF respiratory exacerbation and extrapulmonary manifestations of CF in the unique situation of a Fontan circulation, a circulation with absence of a subpulmonary ventricle and pulsatile pulmonary arterial blood flow where maintenance of systemic cardiac output is totally dependent on good respiratory function and low pulmonary artery pressures.

Single-Chip T/R Module for 1.2 GHz

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moussessian, Alina; Mojarradi, Mohammad; Johnson, Travis; Davis, John; Grigorian, Edwin; Hoffman, James; Caro, Edward; Kuhn, William

2006-01-01

A single-chip CMOS-based (complementary-metal-oxide-semiconductorbased) transmit/receive (T/R) module is being developed for L-band radar systems. Previous T/R module implementations required multiple chips employing different technologies (GaAs, Si, and others) combined with off-chip transmission lines and discrete components including circulators. The new design eliminates the bulky circulator, significantly reducing the size and mass of the T/R module. Compared to multi-chip designs, the single-chip CMOS can be implemented with lower cost. These innovations enable cost-effective realization of advanced phased array and synthetic aperture radar systems that require integration of thousands of T/R modules. The circulator is a ferromagnetic device that directs the flow of the RF (radio frequency) power during transmission and reception. During transmission, the circulator delivers the transmitted power from the amplifier to the antenna, while preventing it from damaging the sensitive receiver circuitry. During reception, the circulator directs the energy from the antenna to the low-noise amplifier (LNA) while isolating the output of the power amplifier (PA). In principle, a circulator could be replaced by series transistors acting as electronic switches. However, in practice, the integration of conventional series transistors into a T/R chip introduces significant losses and noise. The prototype single-chip T/R module contains integrated transistor switches, but not connected in series; instead, they are connected in a shunt configuration with resonant circuits (see figure). The shunt/resonant circuit topology not only reduces the losses associated with conventional semiconductor switches but also provides beneficial transformation of impedances for the PA and the LNA. It provides full singlepole/ double-throw switching for the antenna, isolating the LNA from the transmitted signal and isolating the PA from the received signal. During reception, the voltage on control line RX/TX (raised bar) is high, causing the field-effect transistor (FET) switch S1 to be closed, forming a parallel resonant tank circuit L1||C1. This circuit presents high impedance to the left of the antenna, so that the received signal is coupled to the LNA. At the same time, FET switches S2 and S3 are open, so that C2 is removed from the circuit (except for a small parasitic capacitance). The combination of L2 and C3 forms a matching network that transforms the antenna impedance of 50 ohms to a higher value from the perspective of the LNA input terminal. This transformation of impedance improves LNA noise figure by increasing the received voltage delivered to the input transistor. This allows lower transconductance and therefore a smaller transistor, which makes it possible to design the CMOS LNA for low power consumption. During transmission, the voltage on control line RX/TX (raised bar) is low, causing switch S1 to be open. In this configuration, the combination of L1 and C1 transforms the antenna impedance to a lower value from the perspective of the PA. This low impedance is helpful in producing a relatively high output power compatible with the low CMOS operating potential. At the same time, switches S2 and S3 are closed, forming the parallel resonant tank circuit L2||C2. This circuit presents high impedance to the right of the antenna, directing the PA output signal to the antenna and away from the LNA. During this time, S3 presents a short circuit across the LNA input terminals to guarantee that the voltage seen by the LNA is small enough to prevent damage.

Fast Simulators for Satellite Cloud Optical Centroid Pressure Retrievals, 1. Evaluation of OMI Cloud Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joiner, J.; Vasilkov, A. P.; Gupta, Pawan; Bhartia, P. K.; Veefkind, Pepijn; Sneep, Maarten; deHaan, Johan; Polonsky, Igor; Spurr, Robert

2011-01-01

We have developed a relatively simple scheme for simulating retrieved cloud optical centroid pressures (OCP) from satellite solar backscatter observations. We have compared simulator results with those from more detailed retrieval simulators that more fully account for the complex radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere. We used this fast simulator to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of cloud OCPs from the two OMI algorithms using collocated data from CloudSat and Aqua MODIS, a unique situation afforded by the A-train formation of satellites. We find that both OMI algorithms perform reasonably well and that the two algorithms agree better with each other than either does with the collocated CloudSat data. This indicates that patchy snow/ice, cloud 3D, and aerosol effects not simulated with the CloudSat data are affecting both algorithms similarly. We note that the collocation with CloudSat occurs mainly on the East side of OMI's swath. Therefore, we are not able to address cross-track biases in OMI cloud OCP retrievals. Our fast simulator may also be used to simulate cloud OCP from output generated by general circulation models (GCM) with appropriate account of cloud overlap. We have implemented such a scheme and plan to compare OMI data with GCM output in the near future.

Improved Analysis of Earth System Models and Observations using Simple Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiga, B. T.; Urban, N. M.

2016-12-01

Earth system models (ESM) are the most comprehensive tools we have to study climate change and develop climate projections. However, the computational infrastructure required and the cost incurred in running such ESMs precludes direct use of such models in conjunction with a wide variety of tools that can further our understanding of climate. Here we are referring to tools that range from dynamical systems tools that give insight into underlying flow structure and topology to tools that come from various applied mathematical and statistical techniques and are central to quantifying stability, sensitivity, uncertainty and predictability to machine learning tools that are now being rapidly developed or improved. Our approach to facilitate the use of such models is to analyze output of ESM experiments (cf. CMIP) using a range of simpler models that consider integral balances of important quantities such as mass and/or energy in a Bayesian framework.We highlight the use of this approach in the context of the uptake of heat by the world oceans in the ongoing global warming. Indeed, since in excess of 90% of the anomalous radiative forcing due greenhouse gas emissions is sequestered in the world oceans, the nature of ocean heat uptake crucially determines the surface warming that is realized (cf. climate sensitivity). Nevertheless, ESMs themselves are never run long enough to directly assess climate sensitivity. So, we consider a range of models based on integral balances--balances that have to be realized in all first-principles based models of the climate system including the most detailed state-of-the art climate simulations. The models range from simple models of energy balance to those that consider dynamically important ocean processes such as the conveyor-belt circulation (Meridional Overturning Circulation, MOC), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and eddy mixing. Results from Bayesian analysis of such models using both ESM experiments and actual observations are presented. One such result points to the importance of direct sequestration of heat below 700 m, a process that is not allowed for in the simple models that have been traditionally used to deduce climate sensitivity.

Dependence of Cardiac Systolic Function on Elevated Fatty Acid Availability in Obese, Insulin-Resistant Rats.

PubMed

Smith, Wayne; Norton, Gavin R; Woodiwiss, Angela J; Lochner, Amanda; du Toit, Eugene F

2016-07-01

Clinical data advocating an adverse effect of obesity on left ventricular (LV) systolic function independent of comorbidities is controversial. We hypothesized that in obesity with prediabetic insulin resistance, circulating fatty acids (FAs) become a valuable fuel source in the maintenance of normal systolic function. Male Wistar rats were fed a high caloric diet for 32 weeks to induce obesity. Myocardial LV systolic function was assessed using echocardiography and isolated heart preparations. Aortic output was reduced in obese rat hearts over a range of filling pressures (for example: 15 cmH2O, obese: 32.6 ± 1.2 ml/min vs control: 46.2 ± 0.9 ml/min, P < .05) when perfused with glucose alone. Similarly, the slope of the LV end-systolic pressure-volume relationship decreased, and there was a right shift in the LV end-systolic stress-strain relationship as determined in Langendorff perfused, isovolumic rat heart preparations in the presence of isoproterenol (10(-8)M) (LV systolic stress-strain relationship and a reduced load-independent intrinsic systolic myocardial function, obese: 791 ± 62 g/cm(2) vs control: 1186 ± 74 g/cm(2), P < .01). The addition of insulin to the perfusion buffer improved aortic output, whereas the addition of FAs completely normalized aortic output. LV function was maintained in obese animals in vivo during an inotropic challenge. Elevated circulating FA levels may be important to maintain myocardial systolic function in the initial stages of obesity and insulin resistance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-Fluid Geothermal Energy Systems: Using CO2 for Dispatchable Renewable Power Generation and Grid Stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buscheck, T. A.; Bielicki, J. M.; Randolph, J.; Chen, M.; Hao, Y.; Sun, Y.

2013-12-01

Abstract We present an approach to use CO2 to (1) generate dispatchable renewable power that can quickly respond to grid fluctuations and be cost-competitive with natural gas, (2) stabilize the grid by efficiently storing large quantities of energy, (3) enable seasonal storage of solar thermal energy for grid integration, (4) produce brine for power-plant cooling, all which (5) increase CO2 value, rendering CO2 capture to be commerically viable, while (6) sequestering huge quantities of CO2. These attributes reduce carbon intensity of electric power, and enable cost-competitive, dispatchable power from major sources of renewable energy: wind, solar, and geothermal. Conventional geothermal power systems circulate brine as the working fluid to extract heat, but the parasitic power load for this circulation can consume a large portion of gross power output. Recently, CO2 has been considered as a working fluid because its advantageous properties reduce this parasitic loss. We expand on this idea by using multiple working fluids: brine, CO2, and N2. N2 can be separated from air at lower cost than captured CO2, it is not corrosive, and it will not react with the formation. N2 also can improve the economics of energy production and enable energy storage, while reducing operational risk. Extracting heat from geothermal reservoirs often requires submersible pumps to lift brine, but these pumps consume much of the generated electricity. In contrast, our approach drives fluid circulation by injecting supplemental, compressible fluids (CO2, and N2) with high coefficients of thermal expansion. These fluids augment reservoir pressure, produce artesian flow at the producers, and reduce the parasitic load. Pressure augmentation is improved by the thermosiphon effect that results from injecting cold/dense CO2 and N2. These fluids are heated to reservoir temperature, greatly expand, and increase the artesian flow of brine and supplemental fluid at the producers. Rather than using pumps, the thermosiphon directly converts reservoir thermal energy into mechanical energy for fluid circulation. Because stored pressure drives fluid production, the response time is faster than that of conventional geothermal power, already considered to be dispatchable. For conventional geothermal, the parasitic power load is in phase with gross power output. In contrast, our approach can time-shift much of the parasitic power load, which is dominated by the power required to separate N2 from air and compress it for injection. Because N2 is readily available, it can be injected intermittently. Thus, most of the parasitic power load can be shifted to coincide with minimum power demand or when there is a surplus of renewable power. Such a time-shift also allows net power output to be nearly equal to gross power output during peak demand. Energy storage can be almost 100 percent efficient because it is achieved by shifting the parasitic load, which is more efficient than other methods used to store energy and stabilize the grid. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. DOE by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

An operational mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system: E-RTFDDA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hopson, T.; Roux, G.; Hacker, J.; Xu, M.; Warner, T.; Swerdlin, S.

2009-04-01

Mesoscale (2-2000 km) meteorological processes differ from synoptic circulations in that mesoscale weather changes rapidly in space and time, and physics processes that are parameterized in NWP models play a great role. Complex interactions of synoptic circulations, regional and local terrain, land-surface heterogeneity, and associated physical properties, and the physical processes of radiative transfer, cloud and precipitation and boundary layer mixing, are crucial in shaping regional weather and climate. Mesoscale ensemble analysis and prediction should sample the uncertainties of mesoscale modeling systems in representing these factors. An innovative mesoscale Ensemble Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (E-RTFDDA) and forecasting system has been developed at NCAR. E-RTFDDA contains diverse ensemble perturbation approaches that consider uncertainties in all major system components to produce multi-scale continuously-cycling probabilistic data assimilation and forecasting. A 30-member E-RTFDDA system with three nested domains with grid sizes of 30, 10 and 3.33 km has been running on a Department of Defense high-performance computing platform since September 2007. It has been applied at two very different US geographical locations; one in the western inter-mountain area and the other in the northeastern states, producing 6 hour analyses and 48 hour forecasts, with 4 forecast cycles a day. The operational model outputs are analyzed to a) assess overall ensemble performance and properties, b) study terrain effect on mesoscale predictability, c) quantify the contribution of different ensemble perturbation approaches to the overall forecast skill, and d) assess the additional contributed skill from an ensemble calibration process based on a quantile-regression algorithm. The system and the results will be reported at the meeting.

Multi-platform operational validation of the Western Mediterranean SOCIB forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juza, Mélanie; Mourre, Baptiste; Renault, Lionel; Tintoré, Joaquin

2014-05-01

The development of science-based ocean forecasting systems at global, regional, and local scales can support a better management of the marine environment (maritime security, environmental and resources protection, maritime and commercial operations, tourism, ...). In this context, SOCIB (the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System, www.socib.es) has developed an operational ocean forecasting system in the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMOP). WMOP uses a regional configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS, Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005) nested in the larger scale Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) with a spatial resolution of 1.5-2km. WMOP aims at reproducing both the basin-scale ocean circulation and the mesoscale variability which is known to play a crucial role due to its strong interaction with the large scale circulation in this region. An operational validation system has been developed to systematically assess the model outputs at daily, monthly and seasonal time scales. Multi-platform observations are used for this validation, including satellite products (Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Anomaly), in situ measurements (from gliders, Argo floats, drifters and fixed moorings) and High-Frequency radar data. The validation procedures allow to monitor and certify the general realism of the daily production of the ocean forecasting system before its distribution to users. Additionally, different indicators (Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity, Eddy Kinetic Energy, Mixed Layer Depth, Heat Content, transports in key sections) are computed every day both at the basin-scale and in several sub-regions (Alboran Sea, Balearic Sea, Gulf of Lion). The daily forecasts, validation diagnostics and indicators from the operational model over the last months are available at www.socib.es.

Complex mean circulation over the inner shelf south of Martha's Vineyard revealed by observations and a high-resolution model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Lentz, Steven J.; Kirincich, Anthony R.; Farrar, J. Thomas

2011-01-01

Inner-shelf circulation is governed by the interaction between tides, baroclinic forcing, winds, waves, and frictional losses; the mean circulation ultimately governs exchange between the coast and ocean. In some cases, oscillatory tidal currents interact with bathymetric features to generate a tidally rectified flow. Recent observational and modeling efforts in an overlapping domain centered on the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO) provided an opportunity to investigate the spatial and temporal complexity of circulation on the inner shelf. ADCP and surface radar observations revealed a mean circulation pattern that was highly variable in the alongshore and cross-shore directions. Nested modeling incrementally improved representation of the mean circulation as grid resolution increased and indicated tidal rectification as the generation mechanism of a counter-clockwise gyre near the MVCO. The loss of model skill with decreasing resolution is attributed to insufficient representation of the bathymetric gradients (Δh/h), which is important for representing nonlinear interactions between currents and bathymetry. The modeled momentum balance was characterized by large spatial variability of the pressure gradient and horizontal advection terms over short distances, suggesting that observed inner-shelf momentum balances may be confounded. Given the available observational and modeling data, this work defines the spatially variable mean circulation and its formation mechanism—tidal rectification—and illustrates the importance of model resolution for resolving circulation and constituent exchange near the coast. The results of this study have implications for future observational and modeling studies near the MVCO and other inner-shelf locations with alongshore bathymetric variability.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

PubMed Central

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N.; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. PMID:24344283

Regional and climate forcing on forage fish and apex predators in the California Current: new insights from a fully coupled ecosystem model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, J.; Rose, K.; Curchitser, E. N.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Costa, D. P.; Hedstrom, K.

2016-12-01

A fully coupled ecosystem model is used to describe the impact of regional and climate variability on changes in abundance and distribution of forage fish and apex predators in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel (NEMURO) embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel (ROMS), and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for two forage fish species (sardine and anchovy) and one apex predator (California sea lion). Sardine and anchovy are specifically included in the model as they exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances, and are commonly found in the diet of California sea lions. Output from the model demonstrates how regional-scale (i.e., upwelling intensity) and basin-scale (i.e., PDO and ENSO signals) physical processes control species distributions and predator-prey interactions on interannual time scales. The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions leads to the formation of seasonal hotspots where prey and predator spatially overlap. While specifically focused on sardine, anchovy and sea lions, the modeling framework presented here can provide new insights into the physical and biological mechanisms controlling trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

Mechanisms driving the global and seasonal structure of the 16-day planetary wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, V.; Chang, L. C.; Liu, H.; Palo, S. E.

2013-12-01

Past observations have shown that the effects of the quasi 16-day planetary wave, representing the second symmetric Rossby normal mode, are prevalent throughout the middle atmosphere and occasionally, some portions of the upper atmosphere. In the presented work, we investigate the mechanisms driving the propagation of the quasi 16-day planetary wave from a source in the lower atmosphere to higher altitudes by using the NCAR Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The quasi 16-day planetary wave is simulated in the model by introducing perturbations in geopotential height at the lower boundary of the model and comparing it to a control run. Analysis of the model runs over the course of a year show that the background zonal winds play an important role in driving seasonal changes in the quasi 16-day planetary wave structure. Derived quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity gradient and Eliassen-Palm flux from the model output also show that the penetration of the wave into regions of mean wind instability can drive wave amplification in certain regions. The model results are compared to the quasi 16-day wave structure derived from TIMED-SABER observations to identify similarities/differences between the model and observations, and provide further insight into the mechanisms driving the wave propagation.

Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal

2012-09-01

Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1998-01-01

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical 'cores' of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. The two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical 'simple physics' parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1998-01-01

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Cen- ter and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical "cores" of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. ne two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical "simple physics" parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

The Environmental Impact of a Wave Dragon Array Operating in the Black Sea

PubMed Central

Rusu, Eugen

2013-01-01

The present work describes a study related to the influence on the shoreline dynamics of a wave farm consisting of Wave Dragon devices operating in the western side of the Black Sea. Based on historical data analysis of the wave climate, the most relevant environmental conditions that could occur were defined, and for these cases, simulations with SWAN spectral phase averaged wave model were performed. Two situations were considered for the most representative patterns: model simulations without any wave energy converter and simulations considering a wave farm consisting of six Wave Dragon devices. Comparisons of the wave model outputs have been carried out in both geographical and spectral spaces. The results show that although a significant influence appears near the wave farm, this gradually decreases to the coast line level. In order to evaluate the influence of the wave farm on the longshore currents, a nearshore circulation modeling system was used. In relative terms, the longshore current velocities appear to be more sensitive to the presence of the wave farm than the significant wave height. Finally, the possible impact on the marine flora and fauna specific to the target area was also considered and discussed. PMID:23844401

Examining South Atlantic Subtropical Cyclone Anita using the Satellite-Enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies Hourly Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaicberg, H.; Palmeira, A. C. P. A.; Nunes, A.

2017-12-01

Studies on South Atlantic cyclones are mainly compromised by scarcity of observations. Therefore, remote sensing and global (re) analysis products are usually employed in investigations of their evolution. However, the frequent use of global reanalysis might difficult the assessment of the characteristics of the cyclones found in South Atlantic. In that regard, studies on "subtropical" cyclones have been performed using the 25-km resolution, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), a product developed at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. In SRDAS, the Regional Spectral Model assimilates precipitation estimates from environmental satellites, while dynamically downscaling a global reanalysis using the spectral nudging technique to maintain the large-scale features in agreement with the regional model solution. The use of regional models in the downscaling of general circulation models provides more detailed information on weather and climate. As a way of illustrating the usefulness of SRDAS in the study of the subtropical South Atlantic cyclones, the subtropical cyclone Anita was selected because of its intensity. Anita developed near Brazilian south/southeast coast, with damages to local communities. Comparisons with available observations demonstrated the skill of SRDAS in simulating such an extreme event.

The environmental impact of a Wave Dragon array operating in the Black Sea.

PubMed

Diaconu, Sorin; Rusu, Eugen

2013-01-01

The present work describes a study related to the influence on the shoreline dynamics of a wave farm consisting of Wave Dragon devices operating in the western side of the Black Sea. Based on historical data analysis of the wave climate, the most relevant environmental conditions that could occur were defined, and for these cases, simulations with SWAN spectral phase averaged wave model were performed. Two situations were considered for the most representative patterns: model simulations without any wave energy converter and simulations considering a wave farm consisting of six Wave Dragon devices. Comparisons of the wave model outputs have been carried out in both geographical and spectral spaces. The results show that although a significant influence appears near the wave farm, this gradually decreases to the coast line level. In order to evaluate the influence of the wave farm on the longshore currents, a nearshore circulation modeling system was used. In relative terms, the longshore current velocities appear to be more sensitive to the presence of the wave farm than the significant wave height. Finally, the possible impact on the marine flora and fauna specific to the target area was also considered and discussed.

Circulation and rainfall climatology of a 10-year (1979 - 1988) integration with the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheres general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, J.-H.; Sud, Y. C.

1993-01-01

A 10-year (1979-1988) integration of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) under Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) is analyzed and compared with observation. The first momentum fields of circulation variables and also hydrological variables including precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture are presented. Our goals are (1) to produce a benchmark documentation of the GLA GCM for future model improvements; (2) to examine systematic errors between the simulated and the observed circulation, precipitation, and hydrologic cycle; (3) to examine the interannual variability of the simulated atmosphere and compare it with observation; and (4) to examine the ability of the model to capture the major climate anomalies in response to events such as El Nino and La Nina. The 10-year mean seasonal and annual simulated circulation is quite reasonable compared to the analyzed circulation, except the polar regions and area of high orography. Precipitation over tropics are quite well simulated, and the signal of El Nino/La Nina episodes can be easily identified. The time series of evaporation and soil moisture in the 12 biomes of the biosphere also show reasonable patterns compared to the estimated evaporation and soil moisture.

Depth-Dependent Permeability and Heat Output at Basalt-Hosted Hydrothermal Systems Across Mid-Ocean Ridge Spreading Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barreyre, Thibaut; Olive, Jean-Arthur; Crone, Timothy J.; Sohn, Robert A.

2018-04-01

The permeability of the oceanic crust exerts a primary influence on the vigor of hydrothermal circulation at mid-ocean ridges, but it is a difficult to measure parameter that varies with time, space, and geological setting. Here we develop an analytical model for the poroelastic response of hydrothermal exit-fluid velocities and temperatures to ocean tidal loading in a two-layered medium to constrain the discharge zone permeability of each layer. The top layer, corresponding to extrusive lithologies (e.g., seismic layer 2A) overlies a lower permeability layer, corresponding to intrusive lithologies (e.g., layer 2B). We apply the model to three basalt-hosted hydrothermal fields (i.e., Lucky Strike, Main Endeavour and 9°46'N L-vent) for which the seismic stratigraphy is well-established, and for which robust exit-fluid temperature data are available. We find that the poroelastic response to tidal loading is primarily controlled by layer 2A permeability, which is about 3 orders of magnitude higher for the Lucky Strike site (˜10-10 m2) than the 9°46'N L-vent site (˜10-13 m2). By contrast, layer 2B permeability does not exert a strong control on the poroelastic response to tidal loading, yet strongly modulates the heat output of hydrothermal discharge zones. Taking these constraints into account, we estimate a plausible range of layer 2B permeability between ˜10-15 m2 and an upper-bound value of ˜10-14 (9°46'N L-vent) to ˜10-12 m2 (Lucky Strike). These permeability structures reconcile the short-term response and long-term thermal output of hydrothermal sites, and provide new insights into the links between permeability and tectono-magmatic processes along the global mid-ocean ridge.

An Isopycnal Box Model with predictive deep-ocean structure for biogeochemical cycling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip

2012-07-01

To simulate global ocean biogeochemical tracer budgets a model must accurately determine both the volume and surface origins of each water-mass. Water-mass volumes are dynamically linked to the ocean circulation in General Circulation Models, but at the cost of high computational load. In computationally efficient Box Models the water-mass volumes are simply prescribed and do not vary when the circulation transport rates or water mass densities are perturbed. A new computationally efficient Isopycnal Box Model is presented in which the sub-surface box volumes are internally calculated from the prescribed circulation using a diffusive conceptual model of the thermocline, in which upwelling of cold dense water is balanced by a downward diffusion of heat. The volumes of the sub-surface boxes are set so that the density stratification satisfies an assumed link between diapycnal diffusivity, κd, and buoyancy frequency, N: κd = c/(Nα), where c and α are user prescribed parameters. In contrast to conventional Box Models, the volumes of the sub-surface ocean boxes in the Isopycnal Box Model are dynamically linked to circulation, and automatically respond to circulation perturbations. This dynamical link allows an important facet of ocean biogeochemical cycling to be simulated in a highly computationally efficient model framework.

Computational models of the pulmonary circulation: Insights and the move towards clinically directed studies

PubMed Central

Tawhai, Merryn H.; Clark, Alys R.; Burrowes, Kelly S.

2011-01-01

Biophysically-based computational models provide a tool for integrating and explaining experimental data, observations, and hypotheses. Computational models of the pulmonary circulation have evolved from minimal and efficient constructs that have been used to study individual mechanisms that contribute to lung perfusion, to sophisticated multi-scale and -physics structure-based models that predict integrated structure-function relationships within a heterogeneous organ. This review considers the utility of computational models in providing new insights into the function of the pulmonary circulation, and their application in clinically motivated studies. We review mathematical and computational models of the pulmonary circulation based on their application; we begin with models that seek to answer questions in basic science and physiology and progress to models that aim to have clinical application. In looking forward, we discuss the relative merits and clinical relevance of computational models: what important features are still lacking; and how these models may ultimately be applied to further increasing our understanding of the mechanisms occurring in disease of the pulmonary circulation. PMID:22034608

Local and regional effects of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on winter wind power output in Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubiate, Laura; McDermott, Frank; Sweeney, Conor; O'Malley, Mark

2014-05-01

Recent studies (Brayshaw, 2009, Garcia-Bustamante, 2010, Garcia-Bustamante, 2013) have drawn attention to the sensitivity of wind speed distributions and likely wind energy power output in Western Europe to changes in low-frequency, large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wind speed variations and directional shifts as a function of the NAO state can be larger or smaller depending on the North Atlantic region that is considered. Wind speeds in Ireland and the UK for example are approximately 20 % higher during NAO + phases, and up to 30 % lower during NAO - phases relative to the long-term (30 year) climatological means. By contrast, in southern Europe, wind speeds are 15 % lower than average during NAO + phases and 15 % higher than average during NAO - phases. Crucially however, some regions such as Brittany in N.W. France have been identified in which there is negligible variability in wind speeds as a function of the NAO phase, as observed in the ERA-Interim 0.5 degree gridded reanalysis database. However, the magnitude of these effects on wind conditions is temporally and spatially non-stationary. As described by Comas-Bru and McDermott (2013) for temperature and precipitation, such non-stationarity is caused by the influence of two other patterns, the East Atlantic pattern, (EA), and the Scandinavian pattern, (SCA), which modulate the position of the NAO dipole. This phenomenon has also implications for wind speeds and directions, which has been assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and the indices obtained from the PC analysis of sea level pressure over the Atlantic region. In order to study the implications for power production, the interaction of the NAO and the other teleconnection patterns with local topography was also analysed, as well as how these interactions ultimately translate into wind power output. The objective is to have a better defined relationship between wind speed and power output at a local level and a tool that wind farm developers could use to inform site selection. A particular priority was to assess how the potential wind power outputs over a 25-30 year windfarm lifetime in less windy, but resource-stable regions, compare with those from windier but more variable sites.

Phase 1 Free Air CO2 Enrichment Model-Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS): Model Output Data (2015)

DOE Data Explorer

Walker, A. P.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Medlyn, B. E.; Zaehle, S.; Asao, S.; Dietze, M.; El-Masri, B.; Hanson, P. J.; Hickler, T.; Jain, A.; Luo, Y.; Parton, W. J.; Prentice, I. C.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Wang, S.; Wang, Y -P; Warlind, D.; Weng, E.; Oren, R.; Norby, R. J.

2015-01-01

These datasets comprise the model output from phase 1 of the FACE-MDS. These include simulations of the Duke and Oak Ridge experiments and also idealised long-term (300 year) simulations at both sites (please see the modelling protocol for details). Included as part of this dataset are modelling and output protocols. The model datasets are formatted according to the output protocols. Phase 1 datasets are reproduced here for posterity and reproducibility although the model output for the experimental period have been somewhat superseded by the Phase 2 datasets.

Hemodynamic Effects of Ventricular Assist Device Implantation on Norwood, Glenn, and Fontan Circulation: A Simulation Study.

PubMed

Di Molfetta, Arianna; Amodeo, Antonio; Gagliardi, Maria G; Trivella, Maria G; Fresiello, Libera; Filippelli, Sergio; Toscano, Alessandra; Ferrari, Gianfranco

2016-01-01

The growing population of failing single-ventricle (SV) patients might benefit from ventricular assist device (VAD) support as a bridge to heart transplantation. However, the documented experience is limited to isolated case reports. Considering the complex and different physiopathology of Norwood, Glenn, and Fontan patients and the lack of established experience, the aim of this work is to realize and test a lumped parameter model of the cardiovascular system able to simulate SV hemodynamics and VAD implantation effects to support clinical decision. Hemodynamic and echocardiographic data of 30 SV patients (10 Norwood, 10 Glenn, and 10 Fontan) were retrospectively collected and used to simulate patients' baseline. Then, the effects of VAD implantation were simulated. Simulation results suggest that the implantation of VAD: (i) increases the cardiac output and the mean arterial systemic pressure in all the three palliation conditions (Norwood 77.2 and 19.7%, Glenn 38.6 and 32.2%, and Fontan 17.2 and 14.2%); (ii) decreases the SV external work (Norwood 55%, Glenn 35.6%, and Fontan 41%); (iii) decreases the pressure pulsatility index (Norwood 65.2%, Glenn 81.3%, and Fontan 64.8%); (iv) increases the pulmonary arterial pressure in particular in the Norwood circulation (Norwood 39.7%, Glenn 12.1% and Fontan 3%); and (v) decreases the atrial pressure (Norwood 2%, Glenn 10.6%, and Fontan 8.6%). Finally, the VAD work is lower in the Norwood circulation (30.4 mL·mm Hg) in comparison with Fontan (40.3 mL·mm Hg) and to Glenn (64.5 mL·mm Hg) circulations. The use of VAD in SV physiology could be helpful to bridge patients to heart transplantations by increasing the CO and unloading the SV with a decrement of the atrial pressure and the SV external work. The regulation of the pulmonary flow is challenging because the Pap is increased by the presence of VAD. The hemodynamic changes are different in the different SV palliation step. The use of numerical models could be helpful to support patient and VAD selection to optimize the clinical outcome. Copyright © 2015 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

RFQ accelerator tuning system

DOEpatents

Bolie, V.W.

1990-07-03

A cooling system is provided for maintaining a preselected operating temperature in a device, which may be an RFQ accelerator, having a variable heat removal requirement, by circulating a cooling fluid through a cooling system remote from the device. Internal sensors in the device enable an estimated error signal to be generated from parameters which are indicative of the heat removal requirement from the device. Sensors are provided at predetermined locations in the cooling system for outputting operational temperature signals. Analog and digital computers define a control signal functionally related to the temperature signals and the estimated error signal, where the control signal is defined effective to return the device to the preselected operating temperature in a stable manner. The cooling system includes a first heat sink responsive to a first portion of the control signal to remove heat from a major portion of the circulating fluid. A second heat sink is responsive to a second portion of the control signal to remove heat from a minor portion of the circulating fluid. The cooled major and minor portions of the circulating fluid are mixed in response to a mixing portion of the control signal, which is effective to proportion the major and minor portions of the circulating fluid to establish a mixed fluid temperature which is effective to define the preselected operating temperature for the remote device. In an RFQ environment the stable temperature control enables the resonant frequency of the device to be maintained at substantially a predetermined value during transient operations. 3 figs.

RFQ accelerator tuning system

DOEpatents

Bolie, Victor W.

1990-01-01

A cooling system is provided for maintaining a preselected operating temperature in a device, which may be an RFQ accelerator, having a variable heat removal requirement, by circulating a cooling fluid through a cooling system remote from the device. Internal sensors in the device enable an estimated error signal to be generated from parameters which are indicative of the heat removal requirement from the device. Sensors are provided at predetermined locations in the cooling system for outputting operational temperature signals. Analog and digital computers define a control signal functionally related to the temperature signals and the estimated error signal, where the control signal is defined effective to return the device to the preselected operating temperature in a stable manner. The cooling system includes a first heat sink responsive to a first portion of the control signal to remove heat from a major portion of the circulating fluid. A second heat sink is responsive to a second portion of the control signal to remove heat from a minor portion of the circulating fluid. The cooled major and minor portions of the circulating fluid are mixed in response to a mixing portion of the control signal, which is effective to proportion the major and minor portions of the circulating fluid to establish a mixed fluid temperature which is effective to define the preselected operating temperature for the remote device. In an RFQ environment the stable temperature control enables the resonant frequency of the device to be maintained at substantially a predetermined value during transient operations.

Patient-specific computational modeling of blood flow in the pulmonary arterial circulation.

PubMed

Kheyfets, Vitaly O; Rios, Lourdes; Smith, Triston; Schroeder, Theodore; Mueller, Jeffrey; Murali, Srinivas; Lasorda, David; Zikos, Anthony; Spotti, Jennifer; Reilly, John J; Finol, Ender A

2015-07-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of the pulmonary vasculature has the potential to reveal continuum metrics associated with the hemodynamic stress acting on the vascular endothelium. It is widely accepted that the endothelium responds to flow-induced stress by releasing vasoactive substances that can dilate and constrict blood vessels locally. The objectives of this study are to examine the extent of patient specificity required to obtain a significant association of CFD output metrics and clinical measures in models of the pulmonary arterial circulation, and to evaluate the potential correlation of wall shear stress (WSS) with established metrics indicative of right ventricular (RV) afterload in pulmonary hypertension (PH). Right Heart Catheterization (RHC) hemodynamic data and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) imaging were retrospectively acquired for 10 PH patients and processed to simulate blood flow in the pulmonary arteries. While conducting CFD modeling of the reconstructed patient-specific vasculatures, we experimented with three different outflow boundary conditions to investigate the potential for using computationally derived spatially averaged wall shear stress (SAWSS) as a metric of RV afterload. SAWSS was correlated with both pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) (R(2)=0.77, P<0.05) and arterial compliance (C) (R(2)=0.63, P<0.05), but the extent of the correlation was affected by the degree of patient specificity incorporated in the fluid flow boundary conditions. We found that decreasing the distal PVR alters the flow distribution and changes the local velocity profile in the distal vessels, thereby increasing the local WSS. Nevertheless, implementing generic outflow boundary conditions still resulted in statistically significant SAWSS correlations with respect to both metrics of RV afterload, suggesting that the CFD model could be executed without the need for complex outflow boundary conditions that require invasively obtained patient-specific data. A preliminary study investigating the relationship between outlet diameter and flow distribution in the pulmonary tree offers a potential computationally inexpensive alternative to pressure based outflow boundary conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantification of errors induced by temporal resolution on Lagrangian particles in an eddy-resolving model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Xuerong; van Sebille, Erik; Sen Gupta, Alexander

2014-04-01

Lagrangian particle tracking within ocean models is an important tool for the examination of ocean circulation, ventilation timescales and connectivity and is increasingly being used to understand ocean biogeochemistry. Lagrangian trajectories are obtained by advecting particles within velocity fields derived from hydrodynamic ocean models. For studies of ocean flows on scales ranging from mesoscale up to basin scales, the temporal resolution of the velocity fields should ideally not be more than a few days to capture the high frequency variability that is inherent in mesoscale features. However, in reality, the model output is often archived at much lower temporal resolutions. Here, we quantify the differences in the Lagrangian particle trajectories embedded in velocity fields of varying temporal resolution. Particles are advected from 3-day to 30-day averaged fields in a high-resolution global ocean circulation model. We also investigate whether adding lateral diffusion to the particle movement can compensate for the reduced temporal resolution. Trajectory errors reveal the expected degradation of accuracy in the trajectory positions when decreasing the temporal resolution of the velocity field. Divergence timescales associated with averaging velocity fields up to 30 days are faster than the intrinsic dispersion of the velocity fields but slower than the dispersion caused by the interannual variability of the velocity fields. In experiments focusing on the connectivity along major currents, including western boundary currents, the volume transport carried between two strategically placed sections tends to increase with increased temporal averaging. Simultaneously, the average travel times tend to decrease. Based on these two bulk measured diagnostics, Lagrangian experiments that use temporal averaging of up to nine days show no significant degradation in the flow characteristics for a set of six currents investigated in more detail. The addition of random-walk-style diffusion does not mitigate the errors introduced by temporal averaging for large-scale open ocean Lagrangian simulations.

Control of hepatocyte metabolism by sympathetic and parasympathetic hepatic nerves.

PubMed

Püschel, Gerhard P

2004-09-01

More than any other organ, the liver contributes to maintaining metabolic equilibrium of the body, most importantly of glucose homeostasis. It can store or release large quantities of glucose according to changing demands. This homeostasis is controlled by circulating hormones and direct innervation of the liver by autonomous hepatic nerves. Sympathetic hepatic nerves can increase hepatic glucose output; they appear, however, to contribute little to the stimulation of hepatic glucose output under physiological conditions. Parasympathetic hepatic nerves potentiate the insulin-dependent hepatic glucose extraction when a portal glucose sensor detects prandial glucose delivery from the gut. In addition, they might coordinate the hepatic and extrahepatic glucose utilization to prevent hypoglycemia and, at the same time, warrant efficient disposal of excess glucose. Copyright 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Projecting Wind Energy Potential Under Climate Change with Ensemble of Climate Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, A.; Shashikanth, K.; Ghosh, S.; Mukherjee, P. P.

2013-12-01

Recent years have witnessed an increasing global concern over energy sustainability and security, triggered by a number of issues, such as (though not limited to): fossil fuel depletion, energy resource geopolitics, economic efficiency versus population growth debate, environmental concerns and climate change. Wind energy is a renewable and sustainable form of energy in which wind turbines convert the kinetic energy of wind into electrical energy. Global warming and differential surface heating may significantly impact the wind velocity and hence the wind energy potential. Sustainable design of wind mills requires understanding the impacts of climate change on wind energy potential, which we evaluate here with multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs). GCMs simulate the climate variables globally considering the greenhouse emission scenarios provided as Representation Concentration path ways (RCPs). Here we use new generation climate model outputs obtained from Coupled model Intercomparison Project 5(CMIP5). We first compute the wind energy potential with reanalysis data (NCEP/ NCAR), at a spatial resolution of 2.50, where the gridded data is fitted to Weibull distribution and with the Weibull parameters, the wind energy densities are computed at different grids. The same methodology is then used, to CMIP5 outputs (resultant of U-wind and V-wind) of MRI, CMCC, BCC, CanESM, and INMCM4 for historical runs. This is performed separately for four seasons globally, MAM, JJA, SON and DJF. We observe the muti-model average of wind energy density for historic period has significant bias with respect to that of reanalysis product. Here we develop a quantile based superensemble approach where GCM quantiles corresponding to selected CDF values are regressed to reanalysis data. It is observed that this regression approach takes care of both, bias in GCMs and combination of GCMs. With superensemble, we observe that the historical wind energy density resembles quite well with reanalysis/ observed output. We apply the same for future under RCP scenarios. We observe spatially and temporally varying global change of wind energy density. The underlying assumption is that the regression relationship will also hold good for future. The results highlight the needs to change the design standards of wind mills at different locations, considering climate change and at the same time the requirement of height modifications for existing mills to produce same energy in future.

Diagnosis of middle atmosphere chemistry-dynamics interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Swartz, W. H.; Garcia, R. R.; Chartier, A.; Yee, J. H.; Yue, J.

2017-12-01

We apply the recently developed middle atmosphere climate feedback-response analysis method (MCFRAM) to diagnosing the temperature variations associated with chemistry-dynamics interactions in the middle atmosphere. By using output fields from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) coupled with the measurements, we identify and isolate the distinctive characteristics of different components in the observed temperature variations. Both the temperature trends associated with the anthropogenic forcing and temperature changes associated with natural and internal feedback processes are quantified based on MCFRAM defined partial temperature changes corresponding to localized radiative heating, non-localized chemical heating, eddy transport, and transport by the mean meridional circulation of energy and chemical species. In addition, the temperature responses to variations of CO2, O3, and solar flux have distinctly different spatial structures that can be systematically categorized by the eigenmodes of the generalized damping matrix derived from MCFRAM.

Multi-decadal Variability of the Wind Power Output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner Bossi, Nicolas; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Prieto, Luis; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2014-05-01

The knowledge of the long-term wind power variability is essential to provide a realistic outlook on the power output during the lifetime of a planned wind power project. In this work, the Power Output (Po) of a market wind turbine is simulated with a daily resolution for the period 1871-2009 at two different locations in Spain, one at the Central Iberian Plateau and another at the Gibraltar Strait Area. This is attained through a statistical downscaling of the daily wind conditions. It implements a Greedy Algorithm as classificator of a geostrophic-based wind predictor, which is derived by considering the SLP daily field from the 56 ensemble members of the longest homogeneous reanalysis available (20CR, 1871-2009). For calibration and validation purposes we use 10 years of wind observations (the predictand) at both sites. As a result, a series of 139 annual wind speed Probability Density Functions (PDF) are obtained, with a good performance in terms of wind speed uncertainty reduction (average daily wind speed MAE=1.48 m/s). The obtained centennial series allow to investigate the multi-decadal variability of wind power from different points of view. Significant periodicities around the 25-yr frequency band, as well as long-term linear trends are detected at both locations. In addition, a negative correlation is found between annual Po at both locations, evidencing the differences in the dynamical mechanisms ruling them (and possible complementary behavior). Furthermore, the impact that the three leading large-scale circulation patterns over Iberia (NAO, EA and SCAND) exert over wind power output is evaluated. Results show distinct (and non-stationary) couplings to these forcings depending on the geographical position and season or month. Moreover, significant non-stationary correlations are observed with the slow varying Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index for both case studies. Finally, an empirical relationship is explored between the annual Po and the parameters of the Weibull PDF. This allowed us to derive a linear model to estimate the annual power output from those parameters, which results especially useful when no wind power data is available.

Higher cerebral oxygen saturation may provide higher urinary output during continuous regional cerebral perfusion

PubMed Central

Miyamoto, Takashi; Miyaji, Kagami; Okamoto, Hirotsugu; Kohira, Satoshi; Tomoyasu, Takahiro; Inoue, Nobuyuki; Ohara, Kuniyoshi

2008-01-01

Objective We examined the hypothesis that higher cerebral oxygen saturation (rSO2) during RCP is correlated with urinary output. Methods Between December 2002 and August 2006, 12 patients aged 3 to 61 days and weighing 2.6 to 3.4 kg underwent aortic arch repair with RCP. Urinary output and rSO2 were analyzed retrospectively. Data were assigned to either of 2 groups according to their corresponding rSO2: Group A (rSO2 ≦ 75%) and Group B (rSO2 < 75%). Results Seven and 5 patients were assigned to Group A and Group B, respectively. Group A was characterized by mean radial arterial pressure (37.9 ± 9.6 vs 45.8 ± 7.8 mmHg; P = 0.14) and femoral arterial pressure (6.7 ± 6.1 vs 20.8 ± 14.6 mmHg; P = 0.09) compared to Group B. However, higher urinary output during CPB (1.03 ± 1.18 vs 0.10 ± 0.15 ml·kg-1·h-1; P = 0.03). Furthermore our results indicate that a higher dose of Chlorpromazine was used in Group A (2.9 ± 1.4 vs 1.7 ± 1.0 mg/kg; P = 0.03). Conclusion Higher cerebral oxygenation may provide higher urinary output due to higher renal blood flow through collateral circulation. PMID:18973699

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shaunak, S.K.; Soni, B.K.

With research interests shifting away from primarily military or industrial applications to more environmental applications, the area of ocean modelling has become an increasingly popular and exciting area of research. This paper presents a CIPS (Computation Field Simulation) system customized for the solution of oceanographic problems. This system deals primarily with the generation of simple, yet efficient grids for coastal areas. The two primary grid approaches are both structured in methodology. The first approach is a standard approach which is used in such popular grid generation softwares as GE-NIE++, EAGLEVIEW, and TIGER, where the user defines boundaries via points, lines,more » or curves, varies the distribution of points along these boundaries and then creates the interior grid. The second approach is to allow the user to interactively select points on the screen to form the boundary curves and then create the interior grid from these spline curves. The program has been designed with the needs of the ocean modeller in mind so that the modeller can obtain results in a timely yet elegant manner. The modeller performs four basic steps in using the program. First, he selects a region of interest from a popular database. Then, he creates a grid for that region. Next, he sets up boundary and input conditions and runs a circulation model. Finally, the modeller visualizes the output.« less

Modeling the interaction between the intra-aortic balloon pump and the cardiovascular system: the effect of timing.

PubMed

Schampaert, Stéphanie; Rutten, Marcel C M; van T Veer, Marcel; van Nunen, Lokien X; Tonino, Pim A L; Pijls, Nico H J; van de Vosse, Frans N

2013-01-01

Because of the large number of interaction factors involved, the effects of the intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) have not been investigated deeply. To enhance its clinical efficiency and to better define indications for use, advanced models are required to test the interaction between the IABP and the cardiovascular system. A patient with mild blood pressure depression and a lowered cardiac output is modeled in a lumped parameter computational model, developed with physiologically representative elements for relevant components of circulation and device. IABP support is applied, and the moments of balloon inflation and deflation are varied around their conventional timing modes. For validation purposes, timing is adapted within acceptable ranges in ten patients undergoing IABP therapy for typical clinical indications. In both model and patients, the IABP induces a diastolic blood pressure augmentation as well as a systolic reduction in afterload. The support capabilities of the IABP benefit the most when the balloon is deflated simultaneously with ventricular contraction, whereas inflation before onset of diastole unconditionally interferes with ejection. The physiologic response makes the model an excellent tool for testing the interaction between the IABP and the cardiovascular system, and how alterations of specific IABP parameters (i.e., timing) affect this coupling.

Angular momentum and torques in a simulation of the atmosphere's response to the 1982-83 El Nino

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ponte, R.M.; Rosen, R.D.; Boer, G.J.

Anomalies in the angular momentum of the atmosphere (M) during the 1982-83 El Nino event and the torques responsible for these anomalies are investigated using output from the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model. Model values of M during the year of the event are generally larger than those for the model climatology, thereby capturing the observed tendency toward higher values of M during El Nino. Differences exist between the model and observations in the timing and amplitude of the largest anomalies, but these differences may be due to natural variability and not necessarily directly associated with the 1982-83 Elmore » Nino conditions. In late September and October 1982, the model atmosphere acquires momentum more rapidly than usual, leading to the development of the largest deviations from mean conditions at the end of October. A secondary maximum in the departure from mean M values occurs in January 1983 and is related to a general strengthening of westerly momentum anomalies over the model's tropical and midlatitude regions. Both mountain and tangential stress torques are involved in this episode, but no particular mechanism or region dominates the anomalous exchange of momentum. 24 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.« less

Mid-Holocene hydrologic model of the Shingobee watershed, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Filby, S.K.; Locke, Sharon M.; Person, M.A.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.; Ito, E.

2002-01-01

A hydrologifc model of the Shingobee Watershed in north-central Minnesota was developed to reconstruct mid-Holocene paleo-lake levels for Williams Lake, a surface-water body located in the southern portion of the watershed. Hydrologic parameters for the model were first estimated in a calibration exercise using a 9-yr historical record (1990-1998) of climatic and hydrologic stresses. The model reproduced observed temporal and spatial trends in surface/groundwater levels across the watershed. Mid-Holocene aquifer and lake levels were then reconstructed using two paleoclimatic data sets: CCM1 atmospheric general circulation model output and pollen-transfer functions using sediment core data from Williams Lake. Calculated paleo-lake levels based on pollen-derived paleoclimatic reconstructions indicated a 3.5-m drop in simulated lake levels and were in good agreement with the position of mid-Holocene beach sands observed in a Williams Lake sediment core transect. However, calculated paleolake levels based on CCM1 climate forcing produced only a 0.05-m drop in lake levels. We found that decreases in winter precipitation rather than temperature increases had the largest effect on simulated mid-Holocene lake levels. The study illustrates how watershed models can be used to critically evaluate paleoclimatic reconstructions by integrating geologic, climatic, limnologic, and hydrogeologic data sets. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.

2009-12-01

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment,more » and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.« less

Tracer transport by the diabatic circulation deduced from satellite observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, S.; Kiehl, J. T.; Garcia, R. R.; Grose, W.

1986-01-01

Nimbus-7 sensor data were used to track the diabatic circulation in the stratosphere to study the advective transport of CH4 and N2O as tracer species. Advective transport by the mean circulation was found to be a function of the temperature field and associated deviations from radiative equilibrium. A photochemical model was applied to account for the disappearance of the tracer species from the stratosphere. Comparisons between the SAMS data and modeling on the basis of the chemical loss rates of the tracers and the LIMS circulation data showed that the model predictions underestimated the resident abundances, although the global distributions and circulations exhibited a good match.

Exploring Wave-Wave Interactions in a General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nystrom, Virginia; Gasperini, Federico; Forbes, Jeffrey M.; Hagan, Maura E.

2018-01-01

Nonlinear interactions involving Kelvin waves with (periods, zonal wave numbers) = (3.7d, s =- 1) (UFKW1) and = (2.4d, s =- 1) (UFKW2) and s = 0 and s = 1 quasi 9 day waves (Q9DW) with diurnal tides DW1, DW2, DW3, DE2, and DE3 are explored within a National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulation driven at its ˜30 km lower boundary by interpolated 3-hourly output from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The existence of nonlinear wave-wave interactions between the above primary waves is determined by the presence of secondary waves (SWs) with frequencies and zonal wave numbers that are the sums and differences of those of the primary (interacting) waves. Focus is on 10-21 April 2009, when the nontidal dynamics in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region is dominated by UFKW and when identification of SW is robust. Fifteen SWs are identified in all. An interesting triad is identified involving UFKW1, DE3, and a secondary UFKW4 = (1.5d, s =- 2): The UFKW1-DE3 interaction produces UFKW4, the UFKW4-DE3 interaction produces UFKW1, and the UFKW1 interaction with UFKW4 produces DE3. At 120 km the dynamic range of the reconstructed latitude-longitude zonal wind field due to all of the SW is roughly half that of the primary waves, which produced them. This suggests that nonlinear wave-wave interactions could significantly modify the way that the lower atmosphere couples with the ionosphere.

NIR-Driven Moist Upper Atmospheres of Synchronously Rotating Temperate Terrestrial Exoplanets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fujii, Yuka; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Amundsen, David S.

2017-01-01

H2O is a key molecule in characterizing atmospheres of temperate terrestrial planets, and observations of transmission spectra are expected to play a primary role in detecting its signatures in the near future. The detectability of H2O absorption features in transmission spectra depends on the abundance of water vapor in the upper part of the atmosphere. We study the three-dimensional distribution of atmospheric H2O for synchronously rotating Earth-sized aquaplanets using the general circulation model (GCM) ROCKE-3D, and examine the effects of total incident flux and stellar spectral type. We observe a more gentle increase of the water vapor mixing ratio in response to increased incident flux than one-dimensional models suggest, in qualitative agreement with the climate-stabilizing effect of clouds around the substellar point previously observed in GCMs applied to synchronously rotating planets. However, the water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere starts to increase while the surface temperature is still moderate. This is explained by the circulation in the upper atmosphere being driven by the radiative heating due to absorption by water vapor and cloud particles, causing efficient vertical transport of water vapor. Consistently, the water vapor mixing ratio is found to be well-correlated with the near-infrared portion of the incident flux. We also simulate transmission spectra based on the GCM outputs, and show that for the more highly irradiated planets, the H2O signatures may be strengthened by a factor of a few, loosening the observational demands for a H2O detection.

Responses of Basal Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves to the Climatic Forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum and CO2 Doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Obase, T.

2017-12-01

Basal melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is an important factor in determining the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. This study used the climatic outputs of an atmosphere?ocean general circulation model to force a circumpolar ocean model that resolves ice shelf cavity circulation to investigate the response of Antarctic ice shelf melting to different climatic conditions, i.e., to an increase (doubling) of CO2 and the Last Glacial Maximum conditions. We also conducted sensitivity experiments to investigate the role of surface atmospheric change, which strongly affects sea ice production, and the change of oceanic lateral boundary conditions. We found that the rate of change of basal melt due to climate warming is much greater (by an order of magnitude) than due to cooling. This is mainly because the intrusion of warm water onto the continental shelves, linked to sea ice production and climate change, is crucial in determining the basal melt rate of many ice shelves. Sensitivity experiments showed that changes of atmospheric heat flux and ocean temperature are both important for warm and cold climates. The offshore wind change together with atmospheric heat flux change strongly affected the production of sea ice and high-density water, preventing warmer water approaching the ice shelves under a colder climate. These results reflect the importance of both water mass formation in the Antarctic shelf seas and subsurface ocean temperature in understanding the long-term response to climate change of the melting of Antarctic ice shelves.

Formation of fine sediment deposit from a flash flood river in the Mediterranean Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grifoll, Manel; Gracia, Vicenç; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Guillén, Jorge; Espino, Manuel; Warner, John C.

2014-01-01

We identify the mechanisms controlling fine deposits on the inner-shelf in front of the Besòs River, in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. This river is characterized by a flash flood regime discharging large amounts of water (more than 20 times the mean water discharge) and sediment in very short periods lasting from hours to few days. Numerical model output was compared with bottom sediment observations and used to characterize the multiple spatial and temporal scales involved in offshore sediment deposit formation. A high-resolution (50 m grid size) coupled hydrodynamic-wave-sediment transport model was applied to the initial stages of the sediment dispersal after a storm-related flood event. After the flood, sediment accumulation was predominantly confined to an area near the coastline as a result of preferential deposition during the final stage of the storm. Subsequent reworking occurred due to wave-induced bottom shear stress that resuspended fine materials, with seaward flow exporting them toward the midshelf. Wave characteristics, sediment availability, and shelf circulation determined the transport after the reworking and the final sediment deposition location. One year simulations of the regional area revealed a prevalent southwestward average flow with increased intensity downstream. The circulation pattern was consistent with the observed fine deposit depocenter being shifted southward from the river mouth. At the southern edge, bathymetry controlled the fine deposition by inducing near-bottom flow convergence enhancing bottom shear stress. According to the short-term and long-term analyses, a seasonal pattern in the fine deposit formation is expected.

Does coupled ocean enhance ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere circulation changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, S. W.; Han, B. R.; Kim, S. Y.; Park, R.

2017-12-01

The ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation changes, such as poleward shift of westerly jet and Hadley cell widening, have been typically explored with either coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) prescribing stratospheric ozone or chemistry-climate models (CCMs) prescribing surface boundary conditions. Only few studies have utilized ocean-coupled CCMs with a relatively coarse resolution. To better quantify the role of interactive chemistry and coupled ocean in the ozone-hole-induced SH circulation changes, the present study examines a set of CGCM and CCM simulations archived for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CCM initiative (CCMI). Although inter-model spread of Antarctic ozone depletion is substantially large especially in the austral spring, both CGCMs with relatively simple ozone chemistry and CCMs with fully interactive comprehensive chemistry reasonably well reproduce long-term trends of Antarctic ozone and the associated polar-stratospheric temperature changes. Most models reproduce a poleward shift of SH jet and Hadley-cell widening in the austral summer in the late 20th century as identified in reanalysis datasets. These changes are quasi-linearly related with Antarctic ozone changes, confirming the critical role of Antarctic ozone depletion in the austral-summer zonal-mean circulation changes. The CGCMs with simple but still interactive ozone show slightly stronger circulation changes than those with prescribed ozone. However, the long-term circulation changes in CCMs are largely insensitive to the coupled ocean. While a few models show the enhanced circulation changes when ocean is coupled, others show essentially no changes or even weakened circulation changes. This result suggests that the ozone-hole-related stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the late 20th century may be only weakly sensitive to the coupled ocean.

U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

major contributors to the strength of the Gulf Stream, (1) the wind forcing, (2) the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and (3) a...convergence and sensitivity studies with North Atlantic circulation models. Part I. The western boundary current system. Ocean Model., 16, 141-159...a baroclinic version of ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), the latter an unstructured grid model for baroclinic coastal/estuarian applications. NCOM is

A two-stage DEA approach for environmental efficiency measurement.

PubMed

Song, Malin; Wang, Shuhong; Liu, Wei

2014-05-01

The slacks-based measure (SBM) model based on the constant returns to scale has achieved some good results in addressing the undesirable outputs, such as waste water and water gas, in measuring environmental efficiency. However, the traditional SBM model cannot deal with the scenario in which desirable outputs are constant. Based on the axiomatic theory of productivity, this paper carries out a systematic research on the SBM model considering undesirable outputs, and further expands the SBM model from the perspective of network analysis. The new model can not only perform efficiency evaluation considering undesirable outputs, but also calculate desirable and undesirable outputs separately. The latter advantage successfully solves the "dependence" problem of outputs, that is, we can not increase the desirable outputs without producing any undesirable outputs. The following illustration shows that the efficiency values obtained by two-stage approach are smaller than those obtained by the traditional SBM model. Our approach provides a more profound analysis on how to improve environmental efficiency of the decision making units.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Allocation in Karkheh River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davtalabsabet, R.; Madani, K.; Massah, A.; Farajzadeh, M.

2013-12-01

Rahman Davtalab1, 2, Kaveh Madani2, Alireza Massah3, Manouchehr Farajzadeh1 1Department of Geography, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran 2Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA 3Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Abureyhan , University of Tehran, Iran Abstract Karkheh river basin, with an area of 50,000 km2 is located, in southwest Iran. This basin supplies water for major agricultural activities and large hydropower production in five Iranian provinces with the total population of four million people. Due to development and population growth, this large trans-boundary basin is incapable of meeting the water demands of the five riparian provinces, causing water allocation conflicts in the region. The situation has been exacerbated by the frequent droughts and is expected to worsen further by climate change. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on water supply reliability and allocation in this basin. First, outputs of several General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different emission scenarios for different future time horizons are statistically downscaled. Then multiple river flow time series (RFTS) are generated by feeding GCM outputs into a HEC-HMS model, using the Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA). Given a wide range of variations in GCM outputs and the resulting RFTS, the Ward's method is used to identity different RFTS clusters. Clustering helps with increasing the ability of the modeler to test a range of possible future conditions while reducing the redundancies in input data. Karkheh river basin's ability to meet the growing demand under decreasing flows is evaluated for each RFTS cluster representative. Results indicate that Karkheh river flow might decrease by 50% toward the end of the century. This would decrease the reliability of agricultural water deliveries from 78-95% to less than 50%. While currently hydropower dams can only use 50% of their generation capacity for electricity production due to limited water availability, this figure would reduce to less than 30% with climate change. Several adaptation strategies are suggested based on the findings to minimize the economic losses of climate change in this developing basin.

Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, M.; Matsuno, T.; Tomita, H.; Miura, H.; Nasuno, T.; Iga, S.

2008-03-01

A new type of ultra-high resolution atmospheric global circulation model is developed. The new model is designed to perform "cloud resolving simulations" by directly calculating deep convection and meso-scale circulations, which play key roles not only in the tropical circulations but in the global circulations of the atmosphere. Since cores of deep convection have a few km in horizontal size, they have not directly been resolved by existing atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In order to drastically enhance horizontal resolution, a new framework of a global atmospheric model is required; we adopted nonhydrostatic governing equations and icosahedral grids to the new model, and call it Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). In this article, we review governing equations and numerical techniques employed, and present the results from the unique 3.5-km mesh global experiments—with O(10 9) computational nodes—using realistic topography and land/ocean surface thermal forcing. The results show realistic behaviors of multi-scale convective systems in the tropics, which have not been captured by AGCMs. We also argue future perspective of the roles of the new model in the next generation atmospheric sciences.

Minimal modeling of the extratropical general circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Brien, Enda; Branscome, Lee E.

1989-01-01

The ability of low-order, two-layer models to reproduce basic features of the mid-latitude general circulation is investigated. Changes in model behavior with increased spectral resolution are examined in detail. Qualitatively correct time-mean heat and momentum balances are achieved in a beta-plane channel model which includes the first and third meridional modes. This minimal resolution also reproduces qualitatively realistic surface and upper-level winds and mean meridional circulations. Higher meridional resolution does not result in substantial changes in the latitudinal structure of the circulation. A qualitatively correct kinetic energy spectrum is produced when the resolution is high enough to include several linearly stable modes. A model with three zonal waves and the first three meridional modes has a reasonable energy spectrum and energy conversion cycle, while also satisfying heat and momentum budget requirements. This truncation reproduces the basic mechanisms and zonal circulation features that are obtained at higher resolution. The model performance improves gradually with higher resolution and is smoothly dependent on changes in external parameters.

Library Circulation Systems -- An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Surace, Cecily J.

The model circulation system outlined is an on-line real time system in which the circulation file is created from the shelf list and the terminal inquiry system includes the capability to query and browse through the bibliographic system and the circulation subsystem together to determine the availability for circulation of specific documents, or…

Improving models to assess impacts of climate change on Mediterranean water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, João; Carvalho Santos, Cláudia; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro

2016-04-01

In recent decades, water availability for human consumption has faced major constraints due to increasing pollution and reduced water availability. Water resources availability can gain additional stresses and pressures in the context of potential climate change scenarios. For the last decades, the climate change paradigm has been the scope of many researchers and the focus of decision makers, policies and environmental/climate legislation. Decision-makers face a wide range of constrains, as they are forced to define new strategies that merge planning, management and climate change adaptations. In turn, decision-makers must create integrated strategies aiming at the sustainable use of resources. There are multiple uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment and water resources. Typically, most studies have dealt with uncertainties in emission scenarios and resulting socio-economic conditions, including land-use and water use. Less frequently, studies have address the disparities between the future climates generated by climate models for the same greenhouse gas concentrations; and the uncertainties related with the limited knowledge of how watersheds work, which also limits the capacity to simulate them with models. Therefore, the objective of this study is to apply the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to a catchment in Alentejo, southern Portugal; and to evaluate the uncertainty associated both to the calibration of hydrological models and the use of different climate change scenarios and models (a combination of 4 GCM (General Circulation Models) and 1 RCM (Regional Circulation Models) for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Alentejo region is highly vulnerable to the effects of potential climate changes with particular focus on water resources availability, despite several reservoirs used for freshwater supply and agriculture irrigation (e.g. the Alqueva reservoir - the largest artificial lake of the Iberian Peninsula). Here the SWAT2012 model was applied to the catchment of Monte Novo and Vigia. The Monte Novo and Vigia reservoirs were selected due to their importance for the district of Évora, respectively for urban water supply and irrigation. The catchment is a multipurpose reservoir system that covers an area of about 81473 ha and drains into the Alqueva reservoir (25.000 ha). The SWAT2012 model was run for 1973-2012. The calibration routines were conducted on a monthly basis using the SWATCUP. The calibration performance rating is expressed by: NSE 0.89, bR² 0.89, Pbias 7.29 (Vigia) and NSE 0.84, bR² 0.83, Pbias 6.29 (Monte Novo). Expected results are a generalized decrease of water availability in the basin, more intense under the scenario RCP 8.5. However the uncertainty related to the use of different climate change models show different outcomes, which may be considered for the strategies to be adopted. We will take advantage of SWAT's automatic calibration capacities to explore how multiple interpretations of present-day hydrological processes could lead to different outputs in future climate scenarios, and compare this uncertainty with other sources of uncertainty related with future scenarios or different outputs from climate models.

Updated Model of the Solar Energetic Proton Environment in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiggens, Piers; Heynderickx, Daniel; Sandberg, Ingmar; Truscott, Pete; Raukunen, Osku; Vainio, Rami

2018-05-01

The Solar Accumulated and Peak Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Environment (SAPPHIRE) model provides environment specification outputs for all aspects of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) environment. The model is based upon a thoroughly cleaned and carefully processed data set. Herein the evolution of the solar proton model is discussed with comparisons to other models and data. This paper discusses the construction of the underlying data set, the modelling methodology, optimisation of fitted flux distributions and extrapolation of model outputs to cover a range of proton energies from 0.1 MeV to 1 GeV. The model provides outputs in terms of mission cumulative fluence, maximum event fluence and peak flux for both solar maximum and solar minimum periods. A new method for describing maximum event fluence and peak flux outputs in terms of 1-in-x-year SPEs is also described. SAPPHIRE proton model outputs are compared with previous models including CREME96, ESP-PSYCHIC and the JPL model. Low energy outputs are compared to SEP data from ACE/EPAM whilst high energy outputs are compared to a new model based on GLEs detected by Neutron Monitors (NMs).

A Ground-Based Doppler Radar and Micropulse Lidar Forward Simulator for GCM Evaluation of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds: Moving Forward Towards an Apples-to-apples Comparison of Hydrometeor Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamer, K.; Fridlind, A. M.; Ackerman, A. S.; Kollias, P.; Clothiaux, E. E.

2017-12-01

An important aspect of evaluating Artic cloud representation in a general circulation model (GCM) consists of using observational benchmarks which are as equivalent as possible to model output in order to avoid methodological bias and focus on correctly diagnosing model dynamical and microphysical misrepresentations. However, current cloud observing systems are known to suffer from biases such as limited sensitivity, and stronger response to large or small hydrometeors. Fortunately, while these observational biases cannot be corrected, they are often well understood and can be reproduced in forward simulations. Here a ground-based millimeter wavelength Doppler radar and micropulse lidar forward simulator able to interface with output from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE GCM is presented. ModelE stratiform hydrometeor fraction, mixing ratio, mass-weighted fall speed and effective radius are forward simulated to vertically-resolved profiles of radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity and spectrum width as well as lidar backscatter and depolarization ratio. These forward simulated fields are then compared to Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) ground-based observations to assess cloud vertical structure (CVS). Model evalution of Arctic mixed-phase cloud would also benefit from hydrometeor phase evaluation. While phase retrieval from synergetic observations often generates large uncertainties, the same retrieval algorithm can be applied to observed and forward-simulated radar-lidar fields, thereby producing retrieved hydrometeor properties with potentially the same uncertainties. Comparing hydrometeor properties retrieved in exactly the same way aims to produce the best apples-to-apples comparisons between GCM ouputs and observations. The use of a comprenhensive ground-based forward simulator coupled with a hydrometeor classification retrieval algorithm provides a new perspective for GCM evaluation of Arctic mixed-phase clouds from the ground where low-level supercooled liquid layer are more easily observed and where additional environmental properties such as cloud condensation nuclei are quantified. This should help assist in choosing between several possible diagnostic ice nucleation schemes for ModelE stratiform cloud.

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; ...

2016-08-01

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

A Tester for Carbon Nanotube Mode Lockers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yong-Won; Yamashita, Shinji

2007-05-01

We propose and demonstrate a tester for laser pulsating operation of carbon nanotubes employing a circulator with the extra degree of freedom of the second port to access diversified nanotube samples. The nanotubes are deposited onto the end facet of a dummy optical fiber by spray method that guarantees simple sample loading along with the minimized perturbation of optimized laser cavity condition. Resultant optical spectra, autocorrelation traces and pulse train of the laser outputs with qualified samples are presented.

Understanding variability of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation in CORE-II models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downes, S. M.; Spence, P.; Hogg, A. M.

2018-03-01

The current generation of climate models exhibit a large spread in the steady-state and projected Southern Ocean upper and lower overturning circulation, with mechanisms for deep ocean variability remaining less well understood. Here, common Southern Ocean metrics in twelve models from the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) are assessed over a 60 year period. Specifically, stratification, surface buoyancy fluxes, and eddies are linked to the magnitude of the strengthening trend in the upper overturning circulation, and a decreasing trend in the lower overturning circulation across the CORE-II models. The models evolve similarly in the upper 1 km and the deep ocean, with an almost equivalent poleward intensification trend in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. However, the models differ substantially in their eddy parameterisation and surface buoyancy fluxes. In general, models with a larger heat-driven water mass transformation where deep waters upwell at the surface ( ∼ 55°S) transport warmer waters into intermediate depths, thus weakening the stratification in the upper 2 km. Models with a weak eddy induced overturning and a warm bias in the intermediate waters are more likely to exhibit larger increases in the upper overturning circulation, and more significant weakening of the lower overturning circulation. We find the opposite holds for a cool model bias in intermediate depths, combined with a more complex 3D eddy parameterisation that acts to reduce isopycnal slope. In summary, the Southern Ocean overturning circulation decadal trends in the coarse resolution CORE-II models are governed by biases in surface buoyancy fluxes and the ocean density field, and the configuration of the eddy parameterisation.

Spectral Generation from the Ames Mars GCM for the Study of Martian Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassen, David R.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Wolff, Michael J.; Haberle, Robert; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2017-10-01

Studies of martian clouds come from two distinct groups of researchers: those modeling the martian system from first principles and those observing Mars from ground-based and orbital platforms. The model-view begins with global circulation models (GCMs) or mesoscale models to track a multitude of state variables over a prescribed set of spatial and temporal resolutions. The state variables can then be processed into distinct maps of derived product variables, such as integrated optical depth of aerosol (e.g., water ice cloud, dust) or column integrated water vapor for comparison to observational results. The observer view begins, typically, with spectral images or imaging spectra, calibrated to some form of absolute units then run through some form of radiative transfer model to also produce distinct maps of derived product variables. Both groups of researchers work to adjust model parameters and assumptions until some level of agreement in derived product variables is achieved. While this system appears to work well, it is in some sense only an implicit confirmation of the model assumptions that attribute to the work from both sides. We have begun a project of testing the NASA Ames Mars GCM and key aerosol model assumptions more directly by taking the model output and creating synthetic TES-spectra from them for comparison to actual raw-reduced TES spectra. We will present some preliminary generated GCM spectra and TES comparisons.

A tracer analysis study on the redistribution and oxidization of endogenous carbon monoxide in the human body.

PubMed

Sawano, Makoto; Shimouchi, Akito

2010-09-01

Past studies have suggested that some carbon monoxide (CO) moves from blood haemoglobin to tissue cells and that mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase oxidizes CO to carbon dioxide (CO(2)). However, no study has demonstrated this redistribution and oxidization of CO under physiological conditions. The objective of this study was to trace the redistribution and oxidization of CO in the human body by detecting (13)CO(2) production after the inhalation of (13)CO. In Experiment 1, we asked a healthy subject to inhale 50 ppm (13)CO gas. In Experiment 2, we circulated heparinized human blood in a cardio-pulmonary bypass circuit and supplied 50 ppm (13)CO gas to the oxygenator. We sequentially sampled exhaled and output gases and measured the (13)CO(2)/(12)CO(2) ratios. In Experiment 1, the exhaled (13)CO(2)/(12)CO(2) ratio increased significantly between 4 to 31 h of (13)CO inhalation. In Experiment 2, the output (13)CO(2)/(12)CO(2) ratio showed no significant increase within 36 h of (13)CO input. Experiment 1 demonstrated the oxidization of CO in the human body under physiological conditions. Experiment 2 confirmed that oxidization does not occur in the circulating blood and indicated the redistribution of CO from blood carboxyhaemoglobin to tissue cells.

Oxygen removal from water versus arterial oxygen delivery: calibrating the Fick equation in Pacific salmon.

PubMed

Farrell, Anthony P; Eliason, Erika J; Clark, Timothy D; Steinhausen, Maria F

2014-10-01

While it is well known that O2 is directly removed from the water by skin and gill tissues of fish, the mismatch between O2 removal from water (O2 uptake; [Formula: see text]) and the O2 delivered to tissues by the primary circulation (O2 consumption; [Formula: see text]) has never been measured directly. Using data from four recent studies that simultaneously measured [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] in 2-5 kg Pacific salmon, our analysis revealed that sockeye salmon can remove an additional 12-48 % more O2 from the water than the primary circulation delivers to the systemic tissues. This percentage did not change significantly during swimming activity, a result that contradicts an earlier prediction that the difference should decrease when [Formula: see text] increases during exercise. In resting Chinook salmon, a similar percentage difference in simultaneously measured [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] was observed, yet the difference tended to disappear during acute heat stress to a near lethal temperature. These results emphasize that caution should be exercised when using the Fick equation to estimate cardiac output because the overestimate of cardiac output that results from using the Fick equation in Pacific salmon is not small, may not be fixed and may exist in other teleosts.

Workstation-Based Real-Time Mesoscale Modeling Designed for Weather Support to Operations at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manobianco, John; Zack, John W.; Taylor, Gregory E.

1996-01-01

This paper describes the capabilities and operational utility of a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) that has been developed to support operational weather forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The implementation of local, mesoscale modeling systems at KSC/CCAS is designed to provide detailed short-range (less than 24 h) forecasts of winds, clouds, and hazardous weather such as thunderstorms. Short-range forecasting is a challenge for daily operations, and manned and unmanned launches since KSC/CCAS is located in central Florida where the weather during the warm season is dominated by mesoscale circulations like the sea breeze. For this application, MASS has been modified to run on a Stardent 3000 workstation. Workstation-based, real-time numerical modeling requires a compromise between the requirement to run the system fast enough so that the output can be used before expiration balanced against the desire to improve the simulations by increasing resolution and using more detailed physical parameterizations. It is now feasible to run high-resolution mesoscale models such as MASS on local workstations to provide timely forecasts at a fraction of the cost required to run these models on mainframe supercomputers. MASS has been running in the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) at KSC/CCAS since January 1994 for the purpose of system evaluation. In March 1995, the AMU began sending real-time MASS output to the forecasters and meteorologists at CCAS, Spaceflight Meteorology Group (Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas), and the National Weather Service (Melbourne, Florida). However, MASS is not yet an operational system. The final decision whether to transition MASS for operational use will depend on a combination of forecaster feedback, the AMU's final evaluation results, and the life-cycle costs of the operational system.

Diagnostics of severe convection and subsynoptic scale ageostrophic circulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Diagnostics of severe convection and subsynoptic scale ageostrophic circulations are reported. Mesoscale circulations through forcing of ageostrophic motion by adiabatic, diabatic and frictional processes were studied. The development and application of a hybrid isentropic sigma coordinate numerical model was examined. The numerical model simulates mesoscale ageostrophic circulations associated with propagating jet streaks and severe convection. A complete list of publications and these completed through support of the NASA severe storms research project is included.

Progress Towards a Time-Dependent Theory of Solar Meridional Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirley, James H.

2017-08-01

Large-scale meridional motions of solar materials play an important role in flux transport dynamo models. Meridional flows transport surface magnetic flux to polar regions of the Sun, where it may later be subducted and conveyed back towards the equatorial region by a deep return flow in the convection zone. The transported flux may thereafter lead to the generation of new toroidal fields, thereby completing the dynamo cycle. More than two decades of observations have revealed that meridional flow speeds vary substantially with time. Further, a complex morphological variability of meridional flow cells is now recognized, with multiple cell structures detected both in latitude and in depth. ‘Countercells’ with reversed flow directions have been detected at various times. Flow speeds are apparently influenced by the proximity of flows to active regions. This complexity represents a considerable challenge to dynamo modeling efforts. Flows morphology and speed changes may be arbitrarily prescribed in models, but physical realism of model outputs may be questionable, and elusive: The models are ‘trying to hit a moving target.’ Considerations such as these led Belucz et al. (2013; Ap. J. 806:169) to call for “time-dependent theories that can tell us theoretically how this circulation may change its amplitude and form in each hemisphere.” Such a theory now exists for planetary atmospheres (Shirley, 2017; Plan. Sp. Sci. 141, 1-16). Proof of concept for the non-tidal orbit-spin coupling hypothesis of Shirley (2017) was obtained through numerical modeling of the atmospheric circulation of Mars (Mischna & Shirley, 2017; Plan. Sp. Sci. 141, 45-72). Much-improved correspondence of numerical modeling outcomes with observations was demonstrated. In this presentation we will briefly review the physical hypothesis and some prior evidence of its possible role in solar dynamo excitation. We show a strong correlation between observed meridional flow speeds of magnetic features in Cycle 23 with the putative dynamical forcing function. We will also briefly discuss the potential for incorporating orbit-spin coupling accelerations within existing numerical solar dynamo models.

Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Ocean Model Response to Hurricane Ivan (PREPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-18

analysis of upper-limb meridional overturning circulation interior ocean pathways in the tropical/subtropical Atlantic . In: Interhemispheric Water...diminishing returns are encountered when either resolution is increased. 3 1. Introduction Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models have become...northwest Caribbean Sea 4 and GOM. Evaluation is difficult because ocean general circulation models incorporate a large suite of numerical algorithms

Can increased poleward oceanic heat flux explain the warm Cretaceous climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

1996-10-01

The poleward transport of heat in the mid-Cretaceous (100 Ma) is examined using an idealized coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The oceanic component consists of two zonally averaged basins representing the proto-Pacific and proto-Indian oceans and models the dynamics of the meridional thermohaline circulation. The atmospheric component is a simple energy and moisture balance model which includes the diffusive meridional transport of sensible heat and moisture. The ocean model is spun up with a variety of plausible Cretaceous surface temperature and salinity profiles, and a consistent atmosphere is objectively derived based on the resultant sea surface temperature and the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. The coupled model does not exhibit climate drift. Multiple equilibria of the coupled model are found that break the initial symmetry of the ocean circulation; several of these equilibria have one-cell (northern or southern sinking) thermohaline circulation patterns. Two main classes of circulation are found: circulations where the densest water is relatively cool and is formed at the polar latitudes and circulations where the densest water is warm, but quite saline, and the strongest sinking occurs at the tropics. In all cases, significant amounts of warm, saline bottom water are formed in the proto-Indian basin which modify the deepwater characteristics in the larger (proto-Pacific) basin. Temperatures in the deep ocean are warm, 10°-17°C, in agreement with benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope data. The poleward transport of heat in the modeled Cretaceous oceans is larger than in some comparable models of the present day thermohaline circulation and significantly larger than estimates of similar processes in the present-day ocean. It is consistently larger in the polar sinking cases when compared with that seen in the tropical sinking cases, but this represents an increase of only 10%. The largest increase over present-day model transports is in the atmospheric latent heat transport, where an increased hydrological cycle (especially in the tropical sinking cases) contributes up to an extra 1 PW of poleward heat transport. Better constraints on the oceanic deepwater circulation during this period are necessary before the meridional circulation can be unambiguously described.

Lagrangian water mass tracing from pseudo-Argo, model-derived salinity, tracer and velocity data: An application to Antarctic Intermediate Water in the South Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanke, Bruno; Speich, Sabrina; Rusciano, Emanuela

2015-01-01

We use the tracer and velocity fields of a climatological ocean model to investigate the ability of Argo-like data to estimate accurately water mass movements and transformations, in the style of analyses commonly applied to the output of ocean general circulation model. To this end, we introduce an algorithm for the reconstruction of a fully non-divergent three-dimensional velocity field from the simple knowledge of the model vertical density profiles and 1000-m horizontal velocity components. The validation of the technique consists in comparing the resulting pathways for Antarctic Intermediate Water in the South Atlantic Ocean to equivalent reference results based on the full model information available for velocity and tracers. We show that the inclusion of a wind-induced Ekman pumping and of a well-thought-out expression for vertical velocity at the level of the intermediate waters is essential for the reliable reproduction of quantitative Lagrangian analyses. Neglecting the seasonal variability of the velocity and tracer fields is not a significant source of errors, at least well below the permanent thermocline. These results give us confidence in the success of the adaptation of the algorithm to true gridded Argo data for investigating the dynamics of flows in the ocean interior.

An assessment of the cloud signals simulated by NICAM using ISCCP, CALIPSO, and CloudSat satellite simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodama, C.; Noda, A. T.; Satoh, M.

2012-06-01

This study presents an assessment of three-dimensional structures of hydrometeors simulated by the NICAM, global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model without cumulus parameterization, using multiple satellite data sets. A satellite simulator package (COSP: the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package) is employed to consistently compare model output with ISCCP, CALIPSO, and CloudSat satellite observations. Special focus is placed on high thin clouds, which are not observable in the conventional ISCCP data set, but can be detected by the CALIPSO observations. For the control run, the NICAM simulation qualitatively captures the geographical distributions of the high, middle, and low clouds, even though the horizontal mesh spacing is as coarse as 14 km. The simulated low cloud is very close to that of the CALIPSO low cloud. Both the CloudSat observations and NICAM simulation show a boomerang-type pattern in the radar reflectivity-height histogram, suggesting that NICAM realistically simulates the deep cloud development process. A striking difference was found in the comparisons of high thin cirrus, showing overestimated cloud and higher cloud top in the model simulation. Several model sensitivity experiments are conducted with different cloud microphysical parameters to reduce the model-observation discrepancies in high thin cirrus. In addition, relationships among clouds, Hadley circulation, outgoing longwave radiation and precipitation are discussed through the sensitivity experiments.

Comparative study of Arctic sea ice response from NEMO-LIM3 to two different atmospheric forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massonnet, Francois; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Mathiot, Pierre; König Beatty, Christof; Vancoppenolle, Martin

2010-05-01

Sea ice plays a key role within the climate system as it is, e.g., an efficient barrier to transfers of heat, mass and momentum between atmosphere and ocean. In order to simulate the observed sea ice state, global Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) must benefit from good quality atmospheric forcings. NEMO-LIM3 is one of those OGCMs. This model results from the coupling of the sea ice model LIM3 with the ocean model OPA. So far, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset (2-m atmospheric temperatures and 10-m wind speeds) has been used jointly with monthly climatologies of relative humidity, cloudiness and precipitation to set up and calibrate NEMO-LIM3. Clear biases in model outputs have been tentatively attributed to this forcing. Here, we investigate the consequences of using the ERA-40-based DFS4 forcing on an ORCA1 configuration (1° resolution), with focus on the Arctic sea ice. Using an adequate metric, we measure the discrepancies between the simulations resulting from the respective forcings. A particular attention is paid to the sea ice features along Siberia at the beginning of the 80s, as previous NEMO-LIM3 runs with the NCEP/NCAR forcing exhibit a significant overestimation of ice extent in this area during this time period.

A Zebrafish Heart Failure Model for Assessing Therapeutic Agents.

PubMed

Zhu, Xiao-Yu; Wu, Si-Qi; Guo, Sheng-Ya; Yang, Hua; Xia, Bo; Li, Ping; Li, Chun-Qi

2018-03-20

Heart failure is a leading cause of death and the development of effective and safe therapeutic agents for heart failure has been proven challenging. In this study, taking advantage of larval zebrafish, we developed a zebrafish heart failure model for drug screening and efficacy assessment. Zebrafish at 2 dpf (days postfertilization) were treated with verapamil at a concentration of 200 μM for 30 min, which were determined as optimum conditions for model development. Tested drugs were administered into zebrafish either by direct soaking or circulation microinjection. After treatment, zebrafish were randomly selected and subjected to either visual observation and image acquisition or record videos under a Zebralab Blood Flow System. The therapeutic effects of drugs on zebrafish heart failure were quantified by calculating the efficiency of heart dilatation, venous congestion, cardiac output, and blood flow dynamics. All 8 human heart failure therapeutic drugs (LCZ696, digoxin, irbesartan, metoprolol, qiliqiangxin capsule, enalapril, shenmai injection, and hydrochlorothiazide) showed significant preventive and therapeutic effects on zebrafish heart failure (p < 0.05, p < 0.01, and p < 0.001) in the zebrafish model. The larval zebrafish heart failure model developed and validated in this study could be used for in vivo heart failure studies and for rapid screening and efficacy assessment of preventive and therapeutic drugs.

Numerical simulation of terrain-induced mesoscale circulation in the Chiang Mai area, Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathitkunarat, Surachai; Wongwises, Prungchan; Pan-Aram, Rudklao; Zhang, Meigen

2008-11-01

The regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) was applied to Chiang Mai province, a mountainous area in Thailand, to study terrain-induced mesoscale circulations. Eight cases in wet and dry seasons under different weather conditions were analyzed to show thermal and dynamic impacts on local circulations. This is the first study of RAMS in Thailand especially investigating the effect of mountainous area on the simulated meteorological data. Analysis of model results indicates that the model can reproduce major features of local circulation and diurnal variations in temperatures. For evaluating the model performance, model results were compared with observed wind speed, wind direction, and temperature monitored at a meteorological tower. Comparison shows that the modeled values are generally in good agreement with observations and that the model captured many of the observed features.

Correlations between the modelled potato crop yield and the general atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepp, Mait; Saue, Triin

2012-07-01

Biology-related indicators do not usually depend on just one meteorological element but on a combination of several weather indicators. One way to establish such integral indicators is to classify the general atmospheric circulation into a small number of circulation types. The aim of present study is to analyse connections between general atmospheric circulation and potato crop yield in Estonia. Meteorologically possible yield (MPY), calculated by the model POMOD, is used to characterise potato crop yield. Data of three meteorological stations and the biological parameters of two potato sorts were applied to the model, and 73 different classifications of atmospheric circulation from catalogue 1.2 of COST 733, domain 05 are used to qualify circulation conditions. Correlation analysis showed that there is at least one circulation type in each of the classifications with at least one statistically significant (99%) correlation with potato crop yield, whether in Kuressaare, Tallinn or Tartu. However, no classifications with circulation types correlating with MPY in all three stations at the same time were revealed. Circulation types inducing a decrease in the potato crop yield are more clearly represented. Clear differences occurred between the observed geographical locations as well as between the seasons: derived from the number of significant circulation types, summer and Kuressaare stand out. Of potato varieties, late 'Anti' is more influenced by circulation. Analysis of MSLP maps of circulation types revealed that the seaside stations (Tallinn, Kuressaare) suffer from negative effects of anti-cyclonic conditions (drought), while Tartu suffers from the cyclonic activity (excessive water).

On the Freshwater Sensitivity of the Arctic-Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, E.; Eldevik, T.; Haugan, P.

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) carries heat and salt toward the Arctic. This circulation is generally believed to be inhibited by northern freshwater input as indicated by the `box-model' of Stommel (1961). The inferred freshwater-sensitivity of the THC, however, varies considerably between studies, both quantitatively and qualitatively. The northernmost branch of the Atlantic THC, which forms a double estuarine circulation in the Arctic Mediterranean, is one example where both strengthening and weakening of the circulation may occur due to increased freshwater input. We have accordingly built on Stommel's original concept to accomodate a THC similar to that in the Arctic Mediterranean. This model consists of three idealized basins, or boxes, connected by two coupled branches of circulation - the double estuary. The net transport of these two branches represents the extension of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic. Its sensitivity to a change in freshwater forcing depends largely on the distribution of freshwater over the two northern basins. Varying this distribution opens a spectrum of qualitative behaviours ranging from Stommel's original freshwater-inhibited overturning circulation to a freshwater-facilitated estuarine circulation. Between these limiting cases, a Hopf and a cusp bifurcation divide the spectrum into three qualitative regions. In the first region, the circulation behaves similarly to Stommel's circulation, and sufficient freshwater input can induce an abrupt transition into a reversed flow; in the second, a similar transition can be found, although it does not reverse the circulation; in the third, no transition can occur and the circulation is generally facilitated by the northern freshwater input. Overall, the northern THC appears more stable than what would be inferred based on Stommel's model; it requires a larger amount and more localized freshwater input to `collapse' it, and a double estuary circulation is less prone to flow reversal.

Vascular capacitance and cardiac output in pacing-induced canine models of acute and chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Ogilvie, R I; Zborowska-Sluis, D

1995-11-01

The relationship between stressed and total blood volume, total vascular capacitance, central blood volume, cardiac output (CO), and pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (Ppcw) was investigated in pacing-induced acute and chronic heart failure. Acute heart failure was induced in anesthetized splenectomized dogs by a volume load (20 mL/kg over 10 min) during rapid right ventricular pacing at 250 beats/min (RRVP) for 60 min. Chronic heart failure was induced by continuous RRVP for 2-6 weeks (average 24 +/- 2 days). Total vascular compliance and capacitance were calculated from the mean circulatory filling pressure (Pmcf) during transient circulatory arrest after acetylcholine at three different circulating volumes. Stressed blood volume was calculated as a product of compliance and Pmcf, with the total blood volume measured by a dye dilution. Central blood volume (CBV) and CO were measured by thermodilution. Central (heart and lung) vascular capacitance was estimated from the plot of Ppcw against CBV. Acute volume loading without RRVP increased capacitance and CO, whereas after volume loading with RRVP, capacitance and CO were unaltered from baseline. Chronic RRVP reduced capacitance and CO. All interventions, volume +/- RRVP or chronic RRVP, increased stressed and central blood volumes and Ppcw. Acute or chronic RRVP reduced central vascular capacitance. Cardiac output was increased when stressed and unstressed blood volumes increased proportionately as during volume loading alone. When CO was reduced and Ppcw increased, as during chronic RRVP or acute RRVP plus a volume load, stressed blood volume was increased and unstressed blood volume was decreased. Thus, interventions that reduced CO and increased Ppcw also increased stressed and reduced unstressed blood volume and total vascular capacitance.

Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jézéquel, Aglaé; Cattiaux, Julien; Naveau, Philippe; Radanovics, Sabine; Ribes, Aurélien; Vautard, Robert; Vrac, Mathieu; Yiou, Pascal

2018-05-01

The influence of climate change on mid-latitudes atmospheric circulation is still very uncertain. The large internal variability makes it difficult to extract any statistically significant signal regarding the evolution of the circulation. Here we propose a methodology to calculate dynamical trends tailored to the circulation of specific days by computing the evolution of the distances between the circulation of the day of interest and the other days of the time series. We compute these dynamical trends for two case studies of the hottest days recorded in two different European regions (corresponding to the heat-waves of summer 2003 and 2010). We use the NCEP reanalysis dataset, an ensemble of CMIP5 models, and a large ensemble of a single model (CESM), in order to account for different sources of uncertainty. While we find a positive trend for most models for 2003, we cannot conclude for 2010 since the models disagree on the trend estimates.

Lymph node and circulating T cell characteristics are strongly correlated in end-stage renal disease patients, but highly differentiated T cells reside within the circulation.

PubMed

Dedeoglu, B; de Weerd, A E; Huang, L; Langerak, A W; Dor, F J; Klepper, M; Verschoor, W; Reijerkerk, D; Baan, C C; Litjens, N H R; Betjes, M G H

2017-05-01

Ageing is associated with changes in the peripheral T cell immune system, which can be influenced significantly by latent cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection. To what extent changes in circulating T cell populations correlate with T cell composition of the lymph node (LN) is unclear, but is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the T cell system. T cells from peripheral blood (PB) and LN of end-stage renal disease patients were analysed for frequency of recent thymic emigrants using CD31 expression and T cell receptor excision circle content, relative telomere length and expression of differentiation markers. Compared with PB, LN contained relatively more CD4 + than CD8 + T cells (P < 0·001). The percentage of naive and central memory CD4 + and CD8 + T cells and thymic output parameters showed a strong linear correlation between PB and LN. Highly differentiated CD28 null T cells, being CD27 - , CD57 + or programmed death 1 (PD-1 + ), were found almost exclusively in the circulation but not in LN. An age-related decline in naive CD4 + and CD8 + T cell frequency was observed (P = 0·035 and P = 0·002, respectively) within LN, concomitant with an increase in central memory CD8 + T cells (P = 0·033). Latent CMV infection increased dramatically the frequency of circulating terminally differentiated T cells, but did not alter T cell composition and ageing parameters of LN significantly. Overall T cell composition and measures of thymic function in PB and LN are correlated strongly. However, highly differentiated CD28 null T cells, which may comprise a large part of circulating T cells in CMV-seropositive individuals, are found almost exclusively within the circulation. © 2017 British Society for Immunology.

Combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment for the hydrological system in the Vu Gia- Thu Bon River Basin.

PubMed

Tra, Tran Van; Thinh, Nguyen Xuan; Greiving, Stefan

2018-07-15

Vu Gia- Thu Bon (VGTB) River Basin, located in the Central Coastal zone of Viet Nam currently faces water shortage. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the challenge. Therefore, there is a need to study the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the river basin. The study adopts a combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment to address the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the VGTB River Basin. A MIKE BASIN water balance model for the river basin was established to simulate the response of the hydrological system. Simulations were performed through parametrically varying temperature and precipitation to determine the vulnerability space of water shortage. General Circulation Models (GCMs) were then utilized to provide climate projections for the river basin. The output from GCMs was then mapped onto the vulnerability space determined earlier. In total, 9 out of 55 water demand nodes in the simulation are expected to face problematic conditions as future climate changes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

PubMed

Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

2009-03-13

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

Significant Threat to North American forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, R. M.; Lesk, C.; Coffel, E.; D'Amato, A. W.

2016-12-01

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

Potential role of resurfacing Subtropical Underwater in ENSO evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, T.; Chi, J.

2017-12-01

Results from a model of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) have shown that the resurfacing of high salinity Subtropical Underwater contributes to the sea surface salinity variability in the equatorial Pacific. On interannual time scale, this contribution can account for as much as 25% of the surface freshwater flux anomalies and is believed to play a role in ENSO evolution. Having these results in mind, this study investigates the surface salinity budget and its primary controls in the equatorial Pacific using ECCO output for the period 1993-2016. Particular attention is paid to 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Preliminary analyses of the model results suggest that enhanced subsurface processes and in particular enhanced entrainment of Subtropical Underwater are primarily responsible for the positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during 2014/2015, which represents an opposite phase of El Niño. These subsurface processes weakened during 2015/2016, diretly contributing to the development of the 2015/2016 El Niño. The mechanisms controlling these subsurface processes are discussed.

Influences of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability in Jinjiang Basin, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Jie; Li, Zhanjie; Yao, Xiaolei

2014-01-01

The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer. PMID:24701192

On-chip cell sorting via patterned magnetic traps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byvank, Tom; Prikockis, Michael; Chen, Aaron; Miller, Brandon; Chalmers, Jeffrey; Sooryakumar, Ratnasingham

2015-03-01

Due to their importance in research for the diagnosis and treatment of cancer, numerous schemes have been developed to sort rare cell populations, e.g., circulating tumor cells (CTCs), from a larger ensemble of cells. Here, we improve upon a previously developed microfluidic device (Lab Chip 13, 1172, (2013)) to increase throughput and sorting purity of magnetically labeled cells. The separation mechanism involves controlling magnetic forces by manipulating the magnetic domain structures of embedded permalloy microdisks with weak external fields. These forces move labeled cells from the input flow stream into an adjacent buffer flow stream. Such magnetically activated transfer separates the magnetic entities from their non-magnetic counterparts as the two flow streams split apart and move toward their respective outputs. Purity of the magnetic output is modulated by the withdrawal rate of the non-magnetic output relative to the inputs. A proof of concept shows that CTCs from metastatic breast cancer patients can be sorted, recovered from the device, and confirmed as CTCs using separate immunofluorescence staining and analysis. With further optimizations, the channel could become a useful device for high purity final sorting of enriched patient cell samples.

Circulatory failure during severe hyperthermia in dog.

PubMed

Miki, K; Morimoto, T; Nose, H; Itoh, T; Yamada, S

1983-01-01

The effect of acute hyperthermia on circulatory function was studied in 6 mongrel dogs. At a core temperature of about 40 degrees C, central venous pressure and stroke volume were maintained at almost normal level. Cardiac output significantly increased (26 ml/(kg . min)) while systemic vascular resistance significantly decreased (1.2 mmHg . sec/ml). In addition, significant decrease in vascular compliance by 40% was observed. When body temperature was raised further (severe hyperthermia), an abrupt fall of arterial pressure was observed at the rectal temperature of about 41-42 degrees C. Concomitant decreases in central venous pressure (3 mmHg), stroke volume (2.1 ml/beat) and cardiac output (29 ml/(kg . min)) were observed while heart rate increased (48 beats/min). These results suggest that the decrease in cardiac output during severe hyperthermia is due to the fall of central venous pressure, and the fall was attributed to the increase in unstressed vascular volume of systemic circulation due to the heat-induced cutaneous vasodilation. The observed decrease in systemic vascular compliance is considered to have a significant role in the maintenance of central venous pressure under hyperthermia.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

PubMed

van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

2017-07-01

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Do the Brazilian sardine commercial landings respond to local ocean circulation?

PubMed

Gouveia, Mainara B; Gherardi, Douglas F M; Lentini, Carlos A D; Dias, Daniela F; Campos, Paula C

2017-01-01

It has been reported that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, flow intensity and mesoscale ocean processes, all affect sardine production, both in eastern and western boundary current systems. Here we tested the hypothesis whether extreme high and low commercial landings of the Brazilian sardine fisheries in the South Brazil Bight (SBB) are sensitive to different oceanic conditions. An ocean model (ROMS) and an individual based model (Ichthyop) were used to assess the relationship between oceanic conditions during the spawning season and commercial landings of the Brazilian sardine one year later. Model output was compared with remote sensing and analysis data showing good consistency. Simulations indicate that mortality of eggs and larvae by low temperature prior to maximum and minimum landings are significantly higher than mortality caused by offshore advection. However, when periods of maximum and minimum sardine landings are compared with respect to these causes of mortality no significant differences were detected. Results indicate that mortality caused by prevailing oceanic conditions at early life stages alone can not be invoked to explain the observed extreme commercial landings of the Brazilian sardine. Likely influencing factors include starvation and predation interacting with the strategy of spawning "at the right place and at the right time".

Fine-Scale Comparison of TOMS Total Ozone Data with Model Analysis of an Intense Midwestern Cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Mark A.; Gallus, William A., Jr.; Stanford, John L.; Brown, John M.

2000-01-01

High-resolution (approx. 40 km) along-track total column ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are compared with a high-resolution mesoscale numerical model analysis of an intense cyclone in the Midwestern United States. Total ozone increased by 100 DU (nearly 38%) as the TOMS instrument passed over the associated tropopause fold region. Complex structure is seen in the meteorological fields and compares well with the total ozone observations. Ozone data support the meteorological analysis showing that stratospheric descent was confined to levels above approx. 600 hPa; significant positive potential vorticity at lower levels is attributable to diabetic processes. Likewise, meteorological fields show that two pronounced ozone streamers extending north and northeastward into Canada at high levels are not bands of stratospheric air feeding into the cyclone; one is a channel of exhaust downstream from the system, and the other apparently previously connected the main cyclonic circulation to a southward intrusion of polar stratospheric air and advected eastward as the cut-off cyclone evolved. Good agreement between small-scale features in the model output and total ozone data underscores the latter's potential usefulness in diagnosing upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric dynamics and kinematics.

Simulating a 40-year flood event climatology of Australia with a view to ocean-land teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Andreadis, Konstantinos; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Bates, Paul

2015-04-01

We develop, for the first time, a proof-of-concept version for a high-resolution global flood inundation model to generate a flood inundation climatology of the past 40 years (1973-2012) for the entire Australian continent at a native 1 km resolution. The objectives of our study includes (1) deriving an inundation climatology for a continent (Australia) as a demonstrator case to understand the requirements for expanding globally; (2) developing a test bed to assess the potential and value of current and future satellite missions (GRACE, SMAP, ICESat-2, AMSR-2, Sentinels and SWOT) in flood monitoring; and (3) answering science questions such as the linking of inundation to ocean circulation teleconnections. We employ the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model to generate a flood inundation climatology. The model will be built from freely available SRTM-derived data (channel widths, bank heights and floodplain topography corrected for vegetation canopy using ICESat canopy heights). Lakes and reservoirs are represented and channel hydraulics are resolved using actual channel data with bathymetry inferred from hydraulic geometry. Simulations are run with gauged flows and floodplain inundation climatology are compared to observations from GRACE, flood maps from Landsat, SAR, and MODIS. Simulations have been completed for the entire Australian continent. Additionally, changes in flood inundation have been correlated with indices related to global ocean circulation, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation index. We will produce data layers on flood event climatology and other derived (default) products from the proposed model including channel and floodplain depths, flow direction, velocity vectors, floodplain water volume, shoreline extent and flooded area. These data layers will be in the form of simple vector and raster formats. Since outputs will be large in size we propose to upload them onto Google Earth under the GEE API license.

On Lagrangian residual currents with applications in south San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, Ralph T.; Casulli, Vincenzo

1982-01-01

The Lagrangian residual circulation has often been introduced as the sum of the Eulerian residual circulation and the Stokes' drift. Unfortunately, this definition of the Lagrangian residual circulation is conceptually incorrect because both the Eulerian residual circulation and the Stokes' drift are Eulerian variables. In this paper a classification of various residual variables are reviewed and properly defined. The Lagrangian residual circulation is then studied by means of a two-stage formulation of a computer model. The tidal circulation is first computed in a conventional Eulerian way, and then the Lagrangian residual circulation is determined by a method patterned after the method of markers and cells. To demonstrate properties of the Lagrangian residual circulation, application of this approach in South San Francisco Bay, California, is considered. With the aid of the model results, properties of the Eulerian and Lagrangian residual circulation are examined. It can be concluded that estimation of the Lagrangian residual circulation from Eulerian data may lead to unacceptable error, particularly in a tidal estuary where the tidal excursion is of the same order of magnitude as the length scale of the basin. A direction calculation of the Lagrangian residual circulation must be made and has been shown to be feasible.

Method and apparatus for reducing microwave oscillator output noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dick, G. John (Inventor); Saunders, Jonathan E. (Inventor)

1991-01-01

Microwave oscilltors incorporate r.f. feedback with carrier suppression to reduce phase noise. In a direct feedback oscillator arrngement a circulator is interposed between the r.f. amplifier and the high-Q resonator. The amplifier output is applied to the slightly over-coupled input port of the resonator so that the resultant net return signal is the vectorial difference between the signals emitted and reflected from the resonator. The gain of the r.f. amplifier is chosen to regenerate the forward signal from the net return signal. In a STALO-type arrangement, the resonator is critically coupled and an r.f. amplifier added to the path of the net return signal. The sensitivity of the STALO-type feedback loop is thereby enhanced while added amplifier noise is minimized by the superposition of the signals emitted by and reflected from the resonator.

Relations between winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

1995-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of atmospheric circulation are more reliable than GCM simulations of temperature and precipitation. In this study, temporal correlations between 700 hPa height anomalies simulated winter precipitation at eight locations in the conterminous United States are compared with corresponding correlations in observations. The objectives are to 1) characterize the relations between atmospheric circulation and winter precipitation simulated by the GFDL, GCM for selected locations in the conterminous USA, ii) determine whether these relations are similar to those found in observations of the actual climate system, and iii) determine if GFDL-simulated precipitation is forced by the same circulation patterns as in the real atmosphere. -from Authors

Tidal flushing and wind driven circulation of Ahe atoll lagoon (Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia) from in situ observations and numerical modelling.

PubMed

Dumas, F; Le Gendre, R; Thomas, Y; Andréfouët, S

2012-01-01

Hydrodynamic functioning and water circulation of the semi-closed deep lagoon of Ahe atoll (Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia) were investigated using 1 year of field data and a 3D hydrodynamical model. Tidal amplitude averaged less than 30 cm, but tide generated very strong currents (2 ms(-1)) in the pass, creating a jet-like circulation that partitioned the lagoon into three residual circulation cells. The pass entirely flushed excess water brought by waves-induced radiation stress. Circulation patterns were computed for climatological meteorological conditions and summarized with stream function and flushing time. Lagoon hydrodynamics and general overturning circulation was driven by wind. Renewal time was 250 days, whereas the e-flushing time yielded a lagoon-wide 80-days average. Tide-driven flush through the pass and wind-driven overturning circulation designate Ahe as a wind-driven, tidally and weakly wave-flushed deep lagoon. The 3D model allows studying pearl oyster larvae dispersal in both realistic and climatological conditions for aquaculture applications. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The atmosphere- and hydrosphere-correlated signals in GPS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogusz, Janusz; Boy, Jean-Paul; Klos, Anna; Figurski, Mariusz

2015-04-01

The circulation of surface geophysical fluids (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, continental hydrology, etc.) induces global mass redistribution at the Earth's surface, and then surface deformations and gravity variations. The deformations can be reliably recorded by permanent GPS observations nowadays. The loading effects can be precisely modelled by convolving outputs from global general circulation models and Green's functions describing the Earth's response. Previously published papers showed that either surface gravity records or space-based observations can be efficiently corrected for atmospheric loading effects using surface pressure fields from atmospheric models. In a similar way, loading effects due to continental hydrology can be corrected from precise positioning observations. We evaluated 3-D displacement at the selected ITRF2008 core sites that belong to IGS (International GNSS Service) network due to atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological circulation using different models. Atmospheric and induced oceanic loading estimates were computed using the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) operational and reanalysis (ERA interim) surface pressure fields, assuming an inverted barometer ocean response or a barotropic ocean model forced by air pressure and winds (MOG2D). The IB (Inverted Barometer) hypothesis was classically chosen, in which atmospheric pressure variations are fully compensated by static sea height variations. This approximation is valid for periods exceeding typically 5 to 20 days. At higher frequencies, dynamic effects cannot be neglected. Hydrological loading were provided using MERRA land (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications - NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5)) for the different stations. After that we compared the results to the GPS-derived time series of North, East and Up components. The analysis of satellite data was performed twofold: firstly, the time series from network solution (NS) processed in Bernese 5.0 software by the Military University of Technology EPN Local Analysis Centre, secondly, the ones from PPP (Precise Point Positioning) from JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) processing in Gipsy-Oasis were analyzed. Both were modelled with wavelet decomposition with Meyer orthogonal mother wavelet. Here, nine levels of decomposition were applied and eighth detail of it was interpreted as changes close to one year. In this way, both NS and PPP time series where presented as curves with annual period with amplitudes and phases changeable in time. The same analysis was performed for atmospheric (ATM) and hydrospheric (HYDR) models. All annual curves (modelled from NS, PPP, ATM and HYDR) were then compared to each other to investigate whether GPS observations contain the atmosphere and hydrosphere correlated signals and in what way the amplitudes of them may disrupt the GPS time series.

The stratopause semiannual oscillation in the NCAR Community Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sassi, Fabrizio; Garcia, Roland R.; Boville, Byron A.

1993-01-01

The middle atmospheric version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM2) has been used to study the development of the equatorial semiannual oscillation (SAO) in the stratosphere. The model domain extends from the ground to about 80 km, with a vertical resolution of 1 km. Transport of nitrous oxide (N2O) with simplified photochemistry is included in the calculation to illustrate the influence of tropical circulations on the distribution of trace species. Diagnosis of model output reveals two distinct phases in the evolution of the zonal mean state on the equator. In early December, a strong and broad easterly jet appears near the stratopause in connection with a midlatitude wave event (sudden stratospheric warming) that reverses the winter westerlies of the Northern Hemisphere throughout the upper stratosphere. When the wave forcing dies out, the radiative drive allows the westerlies to recover at midlatitudes, while easterlies persist in the tropics. The resulting strong meridional gradient of the zonal mean wind provides favorable conditions for the development of inertial instability at lower latitudes. The meridional circulation associated with the instability shapes the 'nose' of the easterly jet, reducing the extension of the unstable region. In equinoctial conditions, a jet of westerlies appears in the lower equatorial mesosphere and descends to lower altitudes; positive accelerations associated with the descending westerlies are due primarily to Kelvin waves. The descent of the westerly jet does not reproduce well the observed behavior of the SAO westerly phase, either in amplitude or in the extent of downward propagation. As a consequence, the model does not simulate the 'double peak' observed in the tropical distribution of N2O. Comparison of wave amplitudes in the model with those derived from satellite observations shows that the calculated amplitudes are larger than observed in the upper stratosphere. It follows that inadequate Kelvin wave forcing is not the cause of the weak westerly phase in the model, and that some other mechanism must be responsible for the generation of the strong westerly phase observed.

Idealised modelling of ocean circulation driven by conductive and hydrothermal fluxes at the seabed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Jowan M.; Morales Maqueda, Miguel A.; Polton, Jeff A.; Megann, Alex P.

2018-02-01

Geothermal heating is increasingly recognised as an important factor affecting ocean circulation, with modelling studies suggesting that this heat source could lead to first-order changes in the formation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water, as well as a significant warming effect in the abyssal ocean. Where it has been represented in numerical models, however, the geothermal heat flux into the ocean is generally treated as an entirely conductive flux, despite an estimated one third of the global geothermal flux being introduced to the ocean via hydrothermal sources. A modelling study is presented which investigates the sensitivity of the geothermally forced circulation to the way heat is supplied to the abyssal ocean. An analytical two-dimensional model of the circulation is described, which demonstrates the effects of a volume flux through the ocean bed. A simulation using the NEMO numerical general circulation model in an idealised domain is then used to partition a heat flux between conductive and hydrothermal sources and explicitly test the sensitivity of the circulation to the formulation of the abyssal heat flux. Our simulations suggest that representing the hydrothermal flux as a mass exchange indeed changes the heat distribution in the abyssal ocean, increasing the advective heat transport from the abyss by up to 35% compared to conductive heat sources. Consequently, we suggest that the inclusion of hydrothermal fluxes can be an important addition to course-resolution ocean models.

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, Bruce

1994-01-01

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Angular circulation speed of tablets in a vibratory tablet coating pan.

PubMed

Kumar, Rahul; Wassgren, Carl

2013-03-01

In this work, a single tablet model and a discrete element method (DEM) computer simulation are developed to obtain the angular circulation speed of tablets in a vibratory tablet coating pan for range of vibration frequencies and amplitudes. The models identify three important dimensionless parameters that influence the speed of the tablets: the dimensionless amplitude ratio (a/R), the Froude number (aω2/g), and the tablet-wall friction coefficient, where a is the peak vibration amplitude at the drum center, ω is the vibration angular frequency, R is the drum radius, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. The models predict that the angular circulation speed of tablets increases with an increase in each of these parameters. The rate of increase in the angular circulation speed is observed to decrease for larger values of a/R. The angular circulation speed reaches an asymptote beyond a tablet-wall friction coefficient value of about 0.4. Furthermore, it is found that the Froude number should be greater than one for the tablets to start circulating. The angular circulation speed increases as Froude number increases but then does not change significantly at larger values of the Froude number. Period doubling, where the motion of the bed is repeated every two cycles, occurs at a Froude number larger than five. The single tablet model, although much simpler than the DEM model, is able to predict the maximum circulation speed (the limiting case for a large value of tablet-wall friction coefficient) as well as the transition to period doubling.

Wind directions predicted from global circulation models and wind directions determined from eolian sandstones of the western United States-A comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Judith T.; Peterson, F.

1988-01-01

Wind directions for Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic time are predicted from global circulation models for the western United States. These predictions are compared with paleowind directions interpreted from eolian sandstones of Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic age. Predicted regional wind directions correspond with at least three-quarters of the paleowind data from the sandstones; the rest of the data may indicate problems with correlation, local effects of paleogeography on winds, and lack of resolution of the circulation models. The data and predictions suggest the following paleoclimatic developments through the time interval studied: predominance of winter subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Late Pennsylvanian; predominance of summer subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Permian; predominance of summer monsoonal circulation in the Triassic and earliest Jurassic; and, during the remainder of the Jurassic, influence of both summer subtropical and summer monsoonal circulation, with the boundary between the two systems over the western United States. This sequence of climatic changes is largely owing to paleogeographic changes, which influenced the buildup and breakdown of the monsoonal circulation, and possibly owing partly to a decrease in the global temperature gradient, which might have lessened the influence of the subtropical high-pressure circulation. The atypical humidity of Triassic time probably resulted from the monsoonal circulation created by the geography of Pangaea. This circulation is predicted to have been at a maximum in the Triassic and was likely to have been powerful enough to draw moisture along the equator from the ocean to the west. ?? 1988.

Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus on methodology of coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Nevecherja, Artiom

2018-03-01

Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland.

Lamp system with conditioned water coolant and diffuse reflector of polytetrafluorethylene(PTFE)

DOEpatents

Zapata, Luis E.; Hackel, Lloyd

1999-01-01

A lamp system with a very soft high-intensity output is provided over a large area by water cooling a long-arc lamp inside a diffuse reflector of polytetrafluorethylene (PTFE) and titanium dioxide (TiO.sub.2) white pigment. The water is kept clean and pure by a one micron particulate filter and an activated charcoal/ultraviolet irradiation system that circulates and de-ionizes and biologically sterilizes the coolant water at all times, even when the long-arc lamp is off.

Lamp system for uniform semiconductor wafer heating

DOEpatents

Zapata, Luis E.; Hackel, Lloyd

2001-01-01

A lamp system with a very soft high-intensity output is provided over a large area by water cooling a long-arc lamp inside a diffuse reflector of polytetrafluorethylene (PTFE) and titanium dioxide (TiO.sub.2) white pigment. The water is kept clean and pure by a one micron particulate filter and an activated charcoal/ultraviolet irradiation system that circulates and de-ionizes and biologically sterilizes the coolant water at all times, even when the long-arc lamp is off.

The Sensitivity of the Midlatitude Moist Isentropic Circulation on Both Sides of the Climate Model Hierarchy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fajber, R. A.; Kushner, P. J.; Laliberte, F. B.

2017-12-01

In the midlatitude atmosphere, baroclinic eddies are able to raise warm, moist air from the surface into the midtroposphere where it condenses and warms the atmosphere through latent heating. This coupling between dynamics and moist thermodynamics motivates using a conserved moist thermodynamic variable, such as the equivalent potential temperature, to study the midlatitude circulation and associated heat transport since it implicitly accounts for latent heating. When the equivalent potential temperature is used to zonally average the circulation, the moist isentropic circulation takes the form of a single cell in each hemisphere. By utilising the statistical transformed Eulerian mean (STEM) circulation we are able to parametrize the moist isentropic circulation in terms of second order dynamic and moist thermodynamic statistics. The functional dependence of the STEM allows us to analytically calculate functional derivatives that reveal the spatially varying sensitivity of the moist isentropic circulation to perturbations in different statistics. Using the STEM functional derivatives as sensitivity kernels we interpret changes in the moist isentropic circulation from two experiments: surface heating in an idealised moist model, and a climate change scenario in a comprehensive atmospheric general circulation model. In both cases we find that the changes in the moist isentropic circulation are well predicted by the functional sensitivities, and that the total heat transport is more sensitive to changes in dynamical processes driving local changes in poleward heat transport than it is to thermodynamic and/or radiative processes driving changes to the distribution of equivalent potential temperature.

Optimal control of CPR procedure using hemodynamic circulation model

DOEpatents

Lenhart, Suzanne M.; Protopopescu, Vladimir A.; Jung, Eunok

2007-12-25

A method for determining a chest pressure profile for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) includes the steps of representing a hemodynamic circulation model based on a plurality of difference equations for a patient, applying an optimal control (OC) algorithm to the circulation model, and determining a chest pressure profile. The chest pressure profile defines a timing pattern of externally applied pressure to a chest of the patient to maximize blood flow through the patient. A CPR device includes a chest compressor, a controller communicably connected to the chest compressor, and a computer communicably connected to the controller. The computer determines the chest pressure profile by applying an OC algorithm to a hemodynamic circulation model based on the plurality of difference equations.

Aerodynamics of wing-assisted incline running in birds.

PubMed

Tobalske, Bret W; Dial, Kenneth P

2007-05-01

Wing-assisted incline running (WAIR) is a form of locomotion in which a bird flaps its wings to aid its hindlimbs in climbing a slope. WAIR is used for escape in ground birds, and the ontogeny of this behavior in precocial birds has been suggested to represent a model analogous to transitional adaptive states during the evolution of powered avian flight. To begin to reveal the aerodynamics of flap-running, we used digital particle image velocimetry (DPIV) and measured air velocity, vorticity, circulation and added mass in the wake of chukar partridge Alectoris chukar as they engaged in WAIR (incline 65-85 degrees; N=7 birds) and ascending flight (85 degrees, N=2). To estimate lift and impulse, we coupled our DPIV data with three-dimensional wing kinematics from a companion study. The ontogeny of lift production was evaluated using three age classes: baby birds incapable of flight [6-8 days post hatching (d.p.h.)] and volant juveniles (25-28 days) and adults (45+ days). All three age classes of birds, including baby birds with partially emerged, symmetrical wing feathers, generated circulation with their wings and exhibited a wake structure that consisted of discrete vortex rings shed once per downstroke. Impulse of the vortex rings during WAIR was directed 45+/-5 degrees relative to horizontal and 21+/-4 degrees relative to the substrate. Absolute values of circulation in vortex cores and induced velocity increased with increasing age. Normalized circulation was similar among all ages in WAIR but 67% greater in adults during flight compared with flap-running. Estimated lift during WAIR was 6.6% of body weight in babies and between 63 and 86% of body weight in juveniles and adults. During flight, average lift was 110% of body weight. Our results reveal for the first time that lift from the wings, rather than wing inertia or profile drag, is primarily responsible for accelerating the body toward the substrate during WAIR, and that partially developed wings, not yet capable of flight, can produce useful lift during WAIR. We predict that neuromuscular control or power output, rather than external wing morphology, constrain the onset of flight ability during development in birds.

Optical circulator analysis and optimization: a mini-project for physical optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Zhujun

2017-08-01

One of the mini-projects for the course of physical optics is reported. The project is designed to increase comprehension on the basics and applications of polarized light and birefringent crystal. Firstly, the students are required to analyze the basic principle of an optical circulator based on birefringent crystal. Then, they need to consider the engineering optimization problems. The key tasks include analyzing the polarization transforming unit (composed of a half-waveplate and a Faraday rotator) based on Jones matrix, maximizing the walk-off angle between e-ray and o-ray in birefringent crystal, separating e-ray and o-ray symmetrically, employment of a transformed Wollaston prism for input/output coupling of optical beams to fibers. Three years' practice shows that the project is of moderate difficulty, while it covers most of the related knowledge required for the course and helps to train the engineering thinking.

An implantable blood pressure and flow transmitter.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rader, R. D.; Meehan, J. P.; Henriksen, J. K. C.

1973-01-01

A miniature totally implantable FM/FM telemetry system has been developed to simultaneously measure blood pressure and blood flow, thus providing an appreciation of the hemodynamics of the circulation to the entire body or to a particular organ. Developed for work with animal subjects, the telemetry system's transmission time is controlled by an RF signal that permits an operating life of several months. Pressure is detected by a miniature intravascular transducer and flow is detected by an extravascular interferometric ultrasonic technique. Both pressure and flow are calibrated prior to implanting. The pressure calibration can be checked after the implanting by cannulation; flow calibration can be verified only at the end of the experiment by determining the voltage output from the implanted sensing system as a function of several measured flow rates. The utility of this device has been established by its use in investigating canine renal circulation during exercise, emotional encounters, administration of drugs, and application of accelerative forces.

BLOOD PRESSURE REGULATION III: WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ONE SYSTEM MUST SERVE TWO MASTERS: TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE REGULATION?

PubMed Central

Kenney, W. Larry; Stanhewicz, Anna E.; Bruning, Rebecca S.; Alexander, Lacy M.

2013-01-01

When prolonged intense exercise is performed at high ambient temperatures, cardiac output must meet dual demands for increased blood flow to contracting muscle and to the skin. The literature has commonly painted this scenario as a fierce competition, wherein one circulation preserves perfusion at the expense of the other, with the regulated maintenance of blood pressure as the ultimate goal. This review redefines this scenario as commensalism, an integrated balance of regulatory control where one circulation benefits with little functional effect on the other. In young, healthy subjects, arterial pressure rarely falls to any great extent during either extreme passive heating or prolonged dynamic exercise in the heat. Nor does body temperature rise disproportionately due to a compromised skin blood flow. Rather, it often takes the superimposition of additional stressors – e.g., dehydration or simulated hemorrhage – upon heat stress to substantially impact blood pressure regulation. PMID:23636697

Blood pressure regulation III: what happens when one system must serve two masters: temperature and pressure regulation?

PubMed

Kenney, W Larry; Stanhewicz, Anna E; Bruning, Rebecca S; Alexander, Lacy M

2014-03-01

When prolonged intense exercise is performed at high ambient temperatures, cardiac output must meet dual demands for increased blood flow to contracting muscle and to the skin. The literature has commonly painted this scenario as a fierce competition, wherein one circulation preserves perfusion at the expense of the other, with the regulated maintenance of blood pressure as the ultimate goal. This review redefines this scenario as commensalism, an integrated balance of regulatory control where one circulation benefits with little functional effect on the other. In young, healthy subjects, arterial pressure rarely falls to any great extent during either extreme passive heating or prolonged dynamic exercise in the heat, nor does body temperature rise disproportionately due to a compromised skin blood flow. Rather, it often takes the superimposition of additional stressors--e.g., dehydration or simulated hemorrhage--upon heat stress to substantially impact blood pressure regulation.