Regional variability of the frequency distribution of daily precipitation and the synoptic characteristics of heavy precipitation events in present and future climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeAngelis, Anthony M.

Changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in response to global warming may have serious impacts on human life and property. An analysis of precipitation in climate models is performed to evaluate how well the models simulate the present climate and how precipitation may change in the future. Models participating in phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) have substantial biases in their simulation of heavy precipitation intensity over parts of North America during the 20th century. Despite these biases, the large-scale atmospheric circulation accompanying heavy precipitation is either simulated realistically or the strength of the circulation is overestimated. The biases are not related to the large-scale flow in a simple way, pointing toward the importance of other model deficiencies, such as coarse horizontal resolution and convective parameterizations, for the accurate simulation of intense precipitation. Although the models may not sufficiently simulate the intensity of precipitation, their realistic portrayal of the large-scale circulation suggests that projections of future precipitation may be reliable. In the CMIP5 ensemble, the distribution of daily precipitation is projected to undergo substantial changes in response to future atmospheric warming. The regional distribution of these changes was investigated, revealing that dry days and days with heavy-extreme precipitation are projected to increase at the expense of light-moderate precipitation over much of the middle and low latitudes. Such projections have serious implications for future impacts from flood and drought events. In other places, changes in the daily precipitation distribution are characterized by a shift toward either wetter or drier conditions in the future, with heavy-extreme precipitation projected to increase in all but the driest subtropical subsidence regions. Further analysis shows that increases in heavy precipitation in midlatitudes are largely explained by thermodynamics, including increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, in low latitudes and northern high latitudes, changes in vertical velocity accompanying heavy precipitation are also important. The strength of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is projected to change in accordance with vertical velocity in many places, though the circulation patterns, and therefore physical mechanisms that generate heavy precipitation, may remain the same.

Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.;

CISOCUR - Hydrodynamic circulation in the Curonian Lagoon inferred through stable isotope measurements and numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umgiesser, Georg; Razinkovas-Baziukas, Arturas; Barisevičiūtė, Ruta; Baziukė, Dalia; Ertürk, Ali; Gasiūnaitė, Jovita; Gulbinskas, Saulius; Lubienė, Irma; Maračkinaite, Jurgita; Petkuvienė, Jolita; Pilkaitytė, Renata; Ruginis, Tomas; Zemlys, Petras; Žilius, Mindaugas

2013-04-01

The spatial pattern of the hydrodynamic circulation of the Curonian lagoon, the largest European coastal lagoon, is still little understood. In absence of automatic current registration data all the existing models relied mostly on such data as water levels leaving high level of uncertainty. Here we present CISOCUR, a new project financed by the European Social Fund under the Global Grant measure. The project applies a new methodology that uses the carbon stable isotope (SI) ratio of C12 and C13 that characterize different water sources entering the lagoon and may be altered by internal kinetic processes. Through the tracing of these isotope ratios different water masses can be identified. This gives the possibility to validate several hypotheses of water circulation and validate hydrodynamic models. In particular it will be possible to 1) trace water masses entering the lagoon through the Nemunas and the Klaipeda strait; 2) test the hypothesis of sediment transport mechanisms inside the lagoon; 3) evaluate the importance of physical forcing on the lagoon circulation. The use of a hydrodynamic finite element model, coupled with the SI method, will allow for a realistic description of the transport processes inside the Curonian lagoon. So the main research goal is to apply the stable isotope tracers and a finite element model to determine the circulation patterns in the Curonian lagoon. Overall, the project will develop according to 4 main phases: 1) A pilot study to measure the isotope composition of different carbon compounds (dissolved and suspended) in different water bodies that feed water into the central lagoon. Through this pilot study the optimal study sites for the seasonal campaign will be identified as well. 2) Seasonal field campaigns in the monitoring stations identified in phase 1 to measure the carbon isotope ratio. 3) Development of a model that describes the kinetics of carbon isotopes and its transformation. 4) Application of a hydrodynamic model that includes the kinetic model and uses the data in order to describe the overall circulation patterns in the Curonian lagoon. Project activities will be carried out as common co-ordinated effort of field an SI group and the modeling group that will have to calibrate the hydrodynamic model. In this way the expertise of different groups (physicists and oceanographers) will result in added value, providing the best available expertise along the eastern coast of the Baltic.

Mechanisms and detectability of oxygen depletion in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjiputra, J. F.; Goris, N.; Lauvset, S. K.; Schwinger, J.

2016-12-01

Dissolved oxygen is a key tracer in models used to represent the tight interaction between ocean biogeochemical cycle and circulation. Future ocean warming and stratification are projected, leading to a reduced oxygen concentration. Reduction in export production, in contrast, is projected to increase subsurface concentration by lowering the oxygen consumption during organic matter remineralization. In this exercise, we use a suite of CMIP5 models to study the oxygen evolution under the RCP8.5 scenario focusing on the North Atlantic, a region of rapid and steady circulation change. Most models agree with a large reduction in the deep North Atlantic (north of 40N), whereas an increase is projected in the upper subtropical ocean region. We attribute the former to weakening of the net primary production due to stronger stratification and the latter to less air-sea oxygen flux owing to less ventilation. The models also show that interior oxygen could provide earlier indicator of climate change than surface tracers. Sustained observation of oxygen is therefore crucial to reaffirm the ongoing circulation change due to global warming.

An ocean dynamical thermostat—dominant in observations, absent in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2016-12-01

The pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is coupled to the Walker circulation, necessitating an understanding of how this pattern will change in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) overwhelmingly project a decrease in the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient over the coming century. This decrease in the zonal SST gradient is a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation in the CMIP5 models, a consequence of the mass and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle identified by Held and Soden (2006). CMIP5 models, however, are not able to reproduce the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient between 1900-2013 C.E., which we argue to be robust using advanced statistical techniques and new observational datasets. While the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al. (1996), a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) also contributes to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling. Importantly, the strengthening EUC is a response of the ocean to a seasonal weakening of the Walker circulation and thus can reconcile disparate observations of changes to the atmosphere and ocean in the equatorial Pacific. CMIP5 models do not capture the magnitude of this response of the EUC to anthropogenic radiative forcing potentially because of biases in the sensitivity of the EUC to changes in zonal wind stress, like the weakening Walker circulation. Consequently, they project a continuation of the opposite to what has been observed in the real world, with potentially serious consequences for projected climate impacts that are influenced by the tropical Pacific.

Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Chadwick, Robin; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Dong, Changming; Huang, Gang; Foltz, Gregory R.; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2018-05-01

This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

The Pelagics Habitat Analysis Module (PHAM): Decision Support Tools for Pelagic Fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, E. M.; Harrison, D. P.; Kiefer, D.; O'Brien, F.; Hinton, M.; Kohin, S.; Snyder, S.

2009-12-01

PHAM is a project funded by NASA to integrate satellite imagery and circulation models into the management of commercial and threatened pelagic species. Specifically, the project merges data from fishery surveys, and fisheries catch and effort data with satellite imagery and circulation models to define the habitat of each species. This new information on habitat will then be used to inform population distribution and models of population dynamics that are used for management. During the first year of the project, we created two prototype modules. One module, which was developed for the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, is designed to help improve information available to manage the tuna fisheries of the eastern Pacific Ocean. The other module, which was developed for the Coastal Pelagics Division of the Southwest Fishery Science Center, assists management of by-catch of mako, blue, and thresher sharks along the Californian coast. Both modules were built with the EASy marine geographic information system, which provides a 4 dimensional (latitude, longitude, depth, and time) home for integration of the data. The projects currently provide tools for automated downloading and geo-referencing of satellite imagery of sea surface temperature, height, and chlorophyll concentrations; output from JPL’s ECCO2 global circulation model and its ROM California current model; and gridded data from fisheries and fishery surveys. It also provides statistical tools for defining species habitat from these and other types of environmental data. These tools include unbalanced ANOVA, EOF analysis of satellite imagery, and multivariate search routines for fitting fishery data to transforms of the environmental data. Output from the projects consists of dynamic maps of the distribution of the species that are driven by the time series of satellite imagery and output from the circulation models. It also includes relationships between environmental variables and recruitment. During the talk, we will briefly demonstrate features of the software and present the results of our analyses of habitats.

Recent developments of DMI's operational system: Coupled Ecosystem-Circulation-and SPM model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murawski, Jens; Tian, Tian; Dobrynin, Mikhail

2010-05-01

ECOOP is a pan- European project with 72 partners from 29 countries around the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland region, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. The project aims at the development and the integration of the different coastal and regional observation and forecasting systems. The Danish Meteorological Institute DMI coordinates the project and is responsible for the Baltic Sea regional forecasting System. Over the project period, the Baltic Sea system was developed from a purely hydro dynamical model (version V1), running operationally since summer 2009, to a coupled model platform (version V2), including model components for the simulation of suspended particles, data assimilation and ecosystem variables. The ECOOP V2 model is currently tested and validated, and will replace the V1 version soon. The coupled biogeochemical- and circulation model runs operationally since November 2009. The daily forecasts are presented at DMI's homepage http:/ocean.dmi.dk. The presentation includes a short description of the ECOOP forecasting system, discusses the model results and shows the outcome of the model validation.

ENSO-related Interannual Variability of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation: Assessment and Projected Changes in CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederiksen, Carsten; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu; Sisson, Janice

2013-04-01

ENSO variability is an important driver of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation. Understanding the observed and projected changes in ENSO variability is therefore important to understanding changes in Australian surface climate. Using a recently developed methodology (Zheng et al., 2009), the coherent patterns, or modes, of ENSO-related variability in the SH atmospheric circulation can be separated from modes that are related to intraseasonal variability or to changes in radiative forcings. Under this methodology, the seasonal mean SH 500 hPa geopotential height is considered to consist of three components. These are: (1) an intraseasonal component related to internal dynamics on intraseasonal time scales; (2) a slow-internal component related to internal dynamics on slowly varying (interannual or longer) time scales, including ENSO; and (3) a slow-external component related to external (i.e. radiative) forcings. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) are used to represent the modes of variability of the interannual covariance of the three components. An assessment is first made of the modes in models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset for the SH summer and winter seasons in the 20th century. In reanalysis data, two EOFs of the slow component (which includes the slow-internal and slow-external components) have been found to be related to ENSO variability (Frederiksen and Zheng, 2007). In SH summer, the CMIP5 models reproduce the leading ENSO mode very well when the structures of the EOF and the associated SST, and associated variance are considered. There is substantial improvement in this mode when compared with the CMIP3 models shown in Grainger et al. (2012). However, the second ENSO mode in SH summer has a poorly reproduced EOF structure in the CMIP5 models, and the associated variance is generally underestimated. In SH winter, the performance of the CMIP5 models in reproducing the structure and variance is similar for both ENSO modes, with the associated variance being generally underestimated. Projected changes in the modes in the 21st century are then investigated using ensembles of CMIP5 models that reproduce well the 20th century slow modes. The slow-internal and slow-external components are examined separately, allowing the projected changes in the response to ENSO variability to be separated from the response to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. By using several ensembles, the model-dependency of the projected changes in the ENSO-related slow-internal modes is examined. Frederiksen, C. S., and X. Zheng, 2007: Variability of seasonal-mean fields arising from intraseasonal variability. Part 3: Application to SH winter and summer circulations. Climate Dyn., 28, 849-866. Grainger, S., C. S. Frederiksen, and X. Zheng, 2012: Modes of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP3 models: Assessment and Projections. Climate Dyn., in press. Zheng, X., D. M. Straus, C. S. Frederiksen, and S. Grainger, 2009: Potentially predictable patterns of extratropical tropospheric circulation in an ensemble of climate simulations with the COLA AGCM. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1816-1829.

Final Technical Report for DE-SC0005467

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Broccoli, Anthony J.

2014-09-14

The objective of this project is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the key atmospheric mechanisms and physical processes associated with temperature extremes in order to better interpret and constrain uncertainty in climate model simulations of future extreme temperatures. To achieve this objective, we first used climate observations and a reanalysis product to identify the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America during the late twentieth century. We found that temperature extremes were associated with distinctive signatures in near-surface and mid-tropospheric circulation. The orientations and spatial scales of these circulation anomalies vary with latitude, season,more » and proximity to important geographic features such as mountains and coastlines. We next examined the associations between daily and monthly temperature extremes and large-scale, recurrent modes of climate variability, including the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, the northern annular mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The strength of the associations are strongest with the PNA and NAM and weaker for ENSO, and also depend upon season, time scale, and location. The associations are stronger in winter than summer, stronger for monthly than daily extremes, and stronger in the vicinity of the centers of action of the PNA and NAM patterns. In the final stage of this project, we compared climate model simulations of the circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America with those obtained from observations. Using a variety of metrics and self-organizing maps, we found the multi-model ensemble and the majority of individual models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) generally capture the observed patterns well, including their strength and as well as variations with latitude and season. The results from this project indicate that current models are capable of simulating the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with daily temperature extremes and they suggest that such models can be used to evaluate the extent to which changes in atmospheric circulation will influence future changes in temperature extremes.« less

Reducing the Uncertainty in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S. I.

2016-12-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the ocean might slow down in the future, which can lead to a host of climatic effects in North Atlantic and throughout the world. Despite improvements in climate models and availability of new observations, AMOC projections remain uncertain. Here we constrain CMIP5 multi-model ensemble output with observations of a recently developed AMOC index to provide improved Bayesian predictions of future AMOC. Specifically, we first calculate yearly AMOC index loosely based on Rahmstorf et al. (2015) for years 1880—2004 for both observations, and the CMIP5 models for which relevant output is available. We then assign a weight to each model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging method that accounts for differential model skill in terms of both mean state and variability. We include the temporal autocorrelation in climate model errors, and account for the uncertainty in the parameters of our statistical model. We use the weights to provide future weighted projections of AMOC, and compare them to un-weighted ones. Our projections use bootstrapping to account for uncertainty in internal AMOC variability. We also perform spectral and other statistical analyses to show that AMOC index variability, both in models and in observations, is consistent with red noise. Our results improve on and complement previous work by using a new ensemble of climate models, a different observational metric, and an improved Bayesian weighting method that accounts for differential model skill at reproducing internal variability. Reference: Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., & Schaffernicht, E. J. (2015). Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480. doi:10.1038/nclimate2554

Effects of land cover change on the tropical circulation in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonko, Alexandra Karolina; Hense, Andreas; Feddema, Johannes Jan

2010-09-01

Multivariate statistics are used to investigate sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric circulation to scenario-based global land cover change (LCC), with the largest changes occurring in the tropics. Three simulations performed with the fully coupled Parallel Climate Model (PCM) are compared: (1) a present day control run; (2) a simulation with present day land cover and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) projections; and (3) a simulation with SRES A2 land cover and GHG projections. Dimensionality of PCM data is reduced by projection onto a priori specified eigenvectors, consisting of Rossby and Kelvin waves produced by a linearized, reduced gravity model of the tropical circulation. A Hotelling T 2 test is performed on projection amplitudes. Effects of LCC evaluated by this method are limited to diabatic heating. A statistically significant and recurrent signal is detected for 33% of all tests performed for various combinations of parameters. Taking into account uncertainties and limitations of the present methodology, this signal can be interpreted as a Rossby wave response to prescribed LCC. The Rossby waves are shallow, large-scale motions, trapped at the equator and most pronounced in boreal summer. Differences in mass and flow fields indicate a shift of the tropical Walker circulation patterns with an anomalous subsidence over tropical South America.

AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey

This is the final report for the project titled "AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts". The central goal of this one-year research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean GCMs to Earth system models. The AMOC is a key element of ocean circulation responsible for oceanic transport of heat from low to high latitudes and controlling, to a large extent, climate variations in the North Atlantic. The questions of the AMOC stability, variability andmore » predictability, directly relevant to the questions of climate predictability, were at the center of the research work.« less

Developing quantitative criteria to evaluate AOGCMs for application to regional climate assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.; Bradbury, J.; Degaetano, A.; Hertel, A.

2006-12-01

Climate projections are the foundation for regional assessments of potential climate impacts. However, the soundness of regional assessments depends on the ability of global climate models to reproduce key processes responsible for regional climate trends. Here, we develop a systematic method to compare observed climate with historical atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations, to assess the degree to which AOGCMs are able to reproduce regional circulation patterns. Applying this methodology to the U.S. Northeast (NE), we find that nearly all AOGCMs simulate a reasonable winter NAO pattern and seasonal positions of the Jet Stream and the East Coast Trough. However, not all models capture observed correlations between these circulation patterns and seasonal climate anomalies in the NE. Using only those AOGCMs that meet the criteria in each of these areas, we then develop projections of future climate change in the NE. The primary changes projected to occur over the next century - slightly greater temperature increases in summer than winter, and increases in winter precipitation - are consistent with projected trends in regional climate processes and are relatively independent of model or scale. These suggest confidence in the direction and potential range of the most notable regional climate trends, with the absolute magnitude of change depending on both the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing as well as on human emissions over coming decades.

Circulation and rainfall climatology of a 10-year (1979 - 1988) integration with the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheres general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, J.-H.; Sud, Y. C.

1993-01-01

A 10-year (1979-1988) integration of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) under Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) is analyzed and compared with observation. The first momentum fields of circulation variables and also hydrological variables including precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture are presented. Our goals are (1) to produce a benchmark documentation of the GLA GCM for future model improvements; (2) to examine systematic errors between the simulated and the observed circulation, precipitation, and hydrologic cycle; (3) to examine the interannual variability of the simulated atmosphere and compare it with observation; and (4) to examine the ability of the model to capture the major climate anomalies in response to events such as El Nino and La Nina. The 10-year mean seasonal and annual simulated circulation is quite reasonable compared to the analyzed circulation, except the polar regions and area of high orography. Precipitation over tropics are quite well simulated, and the signal of El Nino/La Nina episodes can be easily identified. The time series of evaporation and soil moisture in the 12 biomes of the biosphere also show reasonable patterns compared to the estimated evaporation and soil moisture.

The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

PubMed Central

Meijers, A. J. S.

2014-01-01

The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercomparison in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Here, we review recent analyses of the historical and projected wind, sea ice, circulation and bulk properties of the Southern Ocean in the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Improvements to the models include higher resolutions, more complex and better-tuned parametrizations of ocean mixing, and improved biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric chemistry. CMIP5 largely reproduces the findings of CMIP3, but with smaller inter-model spreads and biases. By the end of the twenty-first century, mid-latitude wind stresses increase and shift polewards. All water masses warm, and intermediate waters freshen, while bottom waters increase in salinity. Surface mixed layers shallow, warm and freshen, whereas sea ice decreases. The upper overturning circulation intensifies, whereas bottom water formation is reduced. Significant disagreement exists between models for the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength, for reasons that are as yet unclear. PMID:24891395

High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

Narrowing of the Upwelling Branch of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and Hadley Cell in Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Feng; Stolarski, Richard S.; Pawson, Steven; Newman, Paul A.; Waugh, Darryn

2010-01-01

Changes in the width of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and Hadley cell in the 21st Century are investigated using simulations from a coupled chemistry-climate model. In these model simulations the tropical upwelling region narrows in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The narrowing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is caused by an equatorward shift of Rossby wave critical latitudes and Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the subtropical lower stratosphere. In the troposphere, the model projects an expansion of the Hadley cell's poleward boundary, but a narrowing of the Hadley rising branch. Model results suggest that the narrowing of the Hadley cell ascent is also eddy-driven.

Climate model biases in jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic drag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pithan, Felix; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Zappa, Giuseppe; Sandu, Irina

2016-07-01

State-of-the art climate models generally struggle to represent important features of the large-scale circulation. Common model deficiencies include an equatorward bias in the location of the midlatitude westerlies and an overly zonal orientation of the North Atlantic storm track. Orography is known to strongly affect the atmospheric circulation and is notoriously difficult to represent in coarse-resolution climate models. Yet how the representation of orography affects circulation biases in current climate models is not understood. Here we show that the effects of switching off the parameterization of drag from low-level orographic blocking in one climate model resemble the biases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble: An overly zonal wintertime North Atlantic storm track and less European blocking events, and an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemispheric jet and increase in the Southern Annular Mode time scale. This suggests that typical circulation biases in coarse-resolution climate models may be alleviated by improved parameterizations of low-level drag.

High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

Sediment dynamics in the Adriatic Sea investigated with coupled models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, Christopher R.; Book, Jeffrey W.; Carniel, Sandro; Cavaleri, Luigi; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Das, Himangshu; Doyle, James D.; Harris, Courtney K.; Niedoroda, Alan W.; Perkins, Henry; Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Pullen, Julie; Reed, Christopher W.; Russo, Aniello; Sclavo, Mauro; Signell, Richard P.; Traykovski, Peter A.; Warner, John C.

2004-01-01

Several large research programs focused on the Adriatic Sea in winter 2002-2003, making it an exciting place for sediment dynamics modelers (Figure 1). Investigations of atmospheric forcing and oceanic response (including wave generation and propagation, water-mass formation, stratification, and circulation), suspended material, bottom boundary layer dynamics, bottom sediment, and small-scale stratigraphy were performed by European and North American researchers participating in several projects. The goal of EuroSTRATAFORM researchers is to improve our ability to understand and simulate the physical processes that deliver sediment to the marine environment and generate stratigraphic signatures. Scientists involved in the Po and Apennine Sediment Transport and Accumulation (PASTA) experiment benefited from other major research programs including ACE (Adriatic Circulation Experiment), DOLCE VITA (Dynamics of Localized Currents and Eddy Variability in the Adriatic), EACE (the Croatian East Adriatic Circulation Experiment project), WISE (West Istria Experiment), and ADRICOSM (Italian nowcasting and forecasting) studies.

Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles.

PubMed

Yao, Shuai-Lei; Luo, Jing-Jia; Huang, Gang

2016-01-01

Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005-2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). The model ensembles are generated from a suite of different atmospheric initial conditions using the same SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. We find that projected precipitation trends are subject to considerably larger internal uncertainty and hence have lower confidence, compared to the projected SAT trends in both the boreal winter and summer. Projected SAT trends in winter have relatively higher uncertainty than those in summer. Besides, the lower-level atmospheric circulation has larger uncertainty than that in the mid-level. Based on k-means cluster analysis, we demonstrate that a substantial portion of internally-induced precipitation and SAT trends arises from internal large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. These results highlight the importance of internal climate variability in affecting regional climate projections on multi-decadal timescales.

Changing currents: a strategy for understanding and predicting the changing ocean circulation.

PubMed

Bryden, Harry L; Robinson, Carol; Griffiths, Gwyn

2012-12-13

Within the context of UK marine science, we project a strategy for ocean circulation research over the next 20 years. We recommend a focus on three types of research: (i) sustained observations of the varying and evolving ocean circulation, (ii) careful analysis and interpretation of the observed climate changes for comparison with climate model projections, and (iii) the design and execution of focused field experiments to understand ocean processes that are not resolved in coupled climate models so as to be able to embed these processes realistically in the models. Within UK-sustained observations, we emphasize smart, cost-effective design of the observational network to extract maximum information from limited field resources. We encourage the incorporation of new sensors and new energy sources within the operational environment of UK-sustained observational programmes to bridge the gap that normally separates laboratory prototype from operational instrument. For interpreting the climate-change records obtained through a variety of national and international sustained observational programmes, creative and dedicated UK scientists should lead efforts to extract the meaningful signals and patterns of climate change and to interpret them so as to project future changes. For the process studies, individual scientists will need to work together in team environments to combine observational and process modelling results into effective improvements in the coupled climate models that will lead to more accurate climate predictions.

Projected effect of 2000-2050 changes in climate and emissions on aerosol levels in China and associated transboundary transport

EPA Science Inventory

We investigate projected 2000–2050 changes in concentrations of aerosols in China and the associated transboundary aerosol transport by using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 at 4° × ...

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R. D.

1999-01-01

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

Role of dust direct radiative effect on the tropical rain belt over Middle East and North Africa: A high-resolution AGCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2015-05-01

To investigate the influence of direct radiative effect of dust on the tropical summer rain belt across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the present study utilizes the high-resolution capability of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model, the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model. Ensembles of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project style simulations have been conducted with and without dust radiative impacts, to differentiate the influence of dust on the tropical rain belt. The analysis focuses on summer season. The results highlight the role of dust-induced responses in global- and regional-scale circulations in determining the strength and the latitudinal extent of the tropical rain belt. A significant response in the strength and position of the local Hadley circulation is predicted in response to meridionally asymmetric distribution of dust and the corresponding radiative effects. Significant responses are also found in regional circulation features such as African Easterly Jet and West African Monsoon circulation. Consistent with these dynamic responses at various scales, the tropical rain belt across MENA strengthens and shifts northward. Importantly, the summer precipitation over the semiarid strip south of Sahara, including Sahel, increases up to 20%. As this region is characterized by the "Sahel drought," the predicted precipitation sensitivity to the dust loading over this region has a wide range of socioeconomic implications. Overall, the study demonstrates the extreme importance of incorporating dust radiative effects and the corresponding circulation responses at various scales, in the simulations and future projections of this region's climate.

The circulation in the Levantine Basin as inferred from in-situ data and numerical modelling (1995-2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Radhakrishnan, Hari; Lardner, Robin; Hayes, Daniel; Gertman, Isaac; Menna, Milena; Poulain, Pierre-Marie

2014-05-01

The general anticlockwise circulation along the coastline of the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine Basin was first proposed by Nielsen in 1912. Half a century later the schematic of the circulation in the area was enriched with sub-basin flow structures. In late 1980s, a more detailed picture of the circulation composed of eddies, gyres and coastal-offshore jets was defined during the POEM cruises. In 2005, Millot and Taupier-Letage have used SST satellite imagery to argue for a simpler pattern similar to the one proposed almost a century ago. During the last decade, renewed in-situ multi-platforms investigations under the framework of CYBO, CYCLOPS, NEMED, GROOM, HaiSec and PERSEUS projects, as well the development of the operational ocean forecasts and hindcasts in the framework of the MFS, ECOOP, MERSEA and MyOcean projects, have made possible to obtain an improved, higher spatial and temporal resolution picture of the circulation in the area. After some years of scientific disputes on the circulation pattern of the region, the new in-situ data sets and the operational numerical simulations confirm the relevant POEM results. The existing POM-based Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting System (CYCOFOS), downscaling the MyOcean MFS, has been providing operational forecasts in the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine Basin region since early 2002. Recently, Radhakrishnan et al. (2012) parallelized the CYCOFOS hydrodynamic flow model using MPI to improve the accuracy of predictions while reducing the computational time. The parallel flow model is capable of modeling the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine Basin flow at a resolution of 500 m. The model was run in hindcast mode during which the innovations were computed using the historical data collected using gliders and cruises. Then, DD-OceanVar (D'Amore et al., 2013), a data assimilation tool based on 3DVAR developed by CMCC was used to compute the temperature and salinity field corrections. Numerical modeling results after the data assimilation will be presented.

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

2009-04-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

2009-12-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Climate downscaling effects on predictive ecological models: a case study for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucklin, David N.; Watling, James I.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.

2013-01-01

High-resolution (downscaled) projections of future climate conditions are critical inputs to a wide variety of ecological and socioeconomic models and are created using numerous different approaches. Here, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions from climate envelope models for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States to determine whether two different downscaling approaches (with and without the use of a regional climate model) affect climate envelope model predictions when all other sources of variation are held constant. We found that prediction maps differed spatially between downscaling approaches and that the variation attributable to downscaling technique was comparable to variation between maps generated using different general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation variables tended to show greater discrepancies between downscaling techniques than temperature variables, and for one GCM, there was evidence that more poorly resolved precipitation variables contributed relatively more to model uncertainty than more well-resolved variables. Our work suggests that ecological modelers requiring high-resolution climate projections should carefully consider the type of downscaling applied to the climate projections prior to their use in predictive ecological modeling. The uncertainty associated with alternative downscaling methods may rival that of other, more widely appreciated sources of variation, such as the general circulation model or emissions scenario with which future climate projections are created.

Cloud-radiative effects on implied oceanic energy transport as simulated by atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gleckler, P. J.; Randall, D. A.; Boer, G.; Colman, R.; Dix, M.; Galin, V.; Helfand, M.; Kiehl, J.; Kitoh, A.; Lau, W.

1995-01-01

This paper summarizes the ocean surface net energy flux simulated by fifteen atmospheric general circulation models constrained by realistically-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. In general, the simulated energy fluxes are within the very large observational uncertainties. However, the annual mean oceanic meridional heat transport that would be required to balance the simulated surface fluxes is shown to be critically sensitive to the radiative effects of clouds, to the extent that even the sign of the Southern Hemisphere ocean heat transport can be affected by the errors in simulated cloud-radiation interactions. It is suggested that improved treatment of cloud radiative effects should help in the development of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, Andrew J.; Sedláček, Jan; Eby, Michael; Alexander, Kaitlin; Crespin, Elisabeth; Fichefet, Thierry; Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle; Joos, Fortunat; Kawamiya, Michio; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Steinacher, Marco; Tachiiri, Kaoru; Tokos, Kathy; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2012-10-01

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%-25% 5%-95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%-30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%-35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%-44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°-32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

The Double ITCZ Syndrome in GCMs: A Coupled Problem among Convection, Atmospheric and Ocean Circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, G. J.; Song, X.

2017-12-01

The double ITCZ bias has been a long-standing problem in coupled atmosphere-ocean models. A previous study indicates that uncertainty in the projection of global warming due to doubling of CO2 is closely related to the double ITCZ biases in global climate models. Thus, reducing the double ITCZ biases is not only important to getting the current climate features right, but also important to narrowing the uncertainty in future climate projection. In this work, we will first review the possible factors contributing to the ITCZ problem. Then, we will focus on atmospheric convection, presenting recent progress in alleviating the double ITCZ problem and its sensitivity to details of convective parameterization, including trigger conditions for convection onset, convective memory, entrainment rate, updraft model and closure in the NCAR CESM1. These changes together can result in dramatic improvements in the simulation of ITCZ. Results based on both atmospheric only and coupled simulations with incremental changes of convection scheme will be shown to demonstrate the roles of convection parameterization and coupled interaction between convection, atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation in the simulation of ITCZ.

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

Identifying a key physical factor sensitive to the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation simulation in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Go-Un; Seo, Kyong-Hwan

2018-01-01

A key physical factor in regulating the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) simulation is examined by using 26 climate model simulations from the World Meteorological Organization's Working Group for Numerical Experimentation/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study (WGNE and MJO-Task Force/GASS) global model comparison project. For this, intraseasonal moisture budget equation is analyzed and a simple, efficient physical quantity is developed. The result shows that MJO skill is most sensitive to vertically integrated intraseasonal zonal wind convergence (ZC). In particular, a specific threshold value of the strength of the ZC can be used as distinguishing between good and poor models. An additional finding is that good models exhibit the correct simultaneous convection and large-scale circulation phase relationship. In poor models, however, the peak circulation response appears 3 days after peak rainfall, suggesting unfavorable coupling between convection and circulation. For an improving simulation of the MJO in climate models, we propose that this delay of circulation in response to convection needs to be corrected in the cumulus parameterization scheme.

Cardiopulmonary Circuit Models for Predicting Injury to the Heart

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Richard; Wing, Sarah; Bassingthwaighte, James; Neal, Maxwell

2004-11-01

Circuit models have been used extensively in physiology to describe cardiopulmonary function. Such models are being used in the DARPA Virtual Soldier (VS) Project* to predict the response to injury or physiological stress. The most complex model consists of systemic circulation, pulmonary circulation, and a four-chamber heart sub-model. This model also includes baroreceptor feedback, airway mechanics, gas exchange, and pleural pressure influence on the circulation. As part of the VS Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been evaluating various cardiopulmonary circuit models for predicting the effects of injury to the heart. We describe, from a physicist's perspective, the concept of building circuit models, discuss both unstressed and stressed models, and show how the stressed models are used to predict effects of specific wounds. *This work was supported by a grant from the DARPA, executed by the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command/TATRC Cooperative Agreement, Contract # W81XWH-04-2-0012. The submitted manuscript has been authored by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed for the U.S. DOE by UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725. Accordingly, the U.S. Government retains a non-exclusive, royalty-free license to publish or reproduce the published form of this contribution, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purpose.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Gang

Mid-latitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate-related damage. Yet large uncertainties remain in climate model projections of heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain/snow events on regional scales, limiting our ability to effectively use these projections for climate adaptation and mitigation. These uncertainties can be attributed to both the lack of spatial resolution in the models, and to the lack of a dynamical understanding of these extremes. The approach of this project is to relate the fine-scale features to the large scales in current climate simulations, seasonal re-forecasts, and climate change projections in a very widemore » range of models, including the atmospheric and coupled models of ECMWF over a range of horizontal resolutions (125 to 10 km), aqua-planet configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales and High Order Method Modeling Environments (resolutions ranging from 240 km – 7.5 km) with various physics suites, and selected CMIP5 model simulations. The large scale circulation will be quantified both on the basis of the well tested preferred circulation regime approach, and very recently developed measures, the finite amplitude Wave Activity (FAWA) and its spectrum. The fine scale structures related to extremes will be diagnosed following the latest approaches in the literature. The goal is to use the large scale measures as indicators of the probability of occurrence of the finer scale structures, and hence extreme events. These indicators will then be applied to the CMIP5 models and time-slice projections of a future climate.« less

Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

Does coupled ocean enhance ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere circulation changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, S. W.; Han, B. R.; Kim, S. Y.; Park, R.

2017-12-01

The ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation changes, such as poleward shift of westerly jet and Hadley cell widening, have been typically explored with either coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) prescribing stratospheric ozone or chemistry-climate models (CCMs) prescribing surface boundary conditions. Only few studies have utilized ocean-coupled CCMs with a relatively coarse resolution. To better quantify the role of interactive chemistry and coupled ocean in the ozone-hole-induced SH circulation changes, the present study examines a set of CGCM and CCM simulations archived for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CCM initiative (CCMI). Although inter-model spread of Antarctic ozone depletion is substantially large especially in the austral spring, both CGCMs with relatively simple ozone chemistry and CCMs with fully interactive comprehensive chemistry reasonably well reproduce long-term trends of Antarctic ozone and the associated polar-stratospheric temperature changes. Most models reproduce a poleward shift of SH jet and Hadley-cell widening in the austral summer in the late 20th century as identified in reanalysis datasets. These changes are quasi-linearly related with Antarctic ozone changes, confirming the critical role of Antarctic ozone depletion in the austral-summer zonal-mean circulation changes. The CGCMs with simple but still interactive ozone show slightly stronger circulation changes than those with prescribed ozone. However, the long-term circulation changes in CCMs are largely insensitive to the coupled ocean. While a few models show the enhanced circulation changes when ocean is coupled, others show essentially no changes or even weakened circulation changes. This result suggests that the ozone-hole-related stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the late 20th century may be only weakly sensitive to the coupled ocean.

Near-inertial Wave Studies using Historical Mooring Records and a High-Resolution General Circulation Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Mooring Records and a High- Resolution General Circulation Model Harper Simmons School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences 903 Koyukuk Drive Fairbanks AK...oceanographic community has been to develop a global internal wave prediction system analogous to those already in place for surface waves. Early steps have...AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) School of Fisheries and Ocean

DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC POTENTIAL AS PROJECTED BY GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Projected loss of a salamander diversity hotspot as a consequence of projected global climate change.

PubMed

Milanovich, Joseph R; Peterman, William E; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Maerz, John C

2010-08-16

Significant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation. Many plethodontid species in southern Appalachia exist in high elevation habitats that may be at or near their thermal maxima, and may also have limited dispersal abilities across warmer valley bottoms. We used a maximum-entropy approach (program Maxent) to model the suitable climatic habitat of 41 plethodontid salamander species inhabiting the Appalachian Highlands region (33 individual species and eight species included within two species complexes). We evaluated the relative change in suitable climatic habitat for these species in the Appalachian Highlands from the current climate to the years 2020, 2050, and 2080, using both the HADCM3 and the CGCM3 models, each under low and high CO(2) scenarios, and using two-model thresholds levels (relative suitability thresholds for determining suitable/unsuitable range), for a total of 8 scenarios per species. While models differed slightly, every scenario projected significant declines in suitable habitat within the Appalachian Highlands as early as 2020. Species with more southern ranges and with smaller ranges had larger projected habitat loss. Despite significant differences in projected precipitation changes to the region, projections did not differ significantly between global circulation models. CO(2) emissions scenario and model threshold had small effects on projected habitat loss by 2020, but did not affect longer-term projections. Results of this study indicate that choice of model threshold and CO(2) emissions scenario affect short-term projected shifts in climatic distributions of species; however, these factors and choice of global circulation model have relatively small affects on what is significant projected loss of habitat for many salamander species that currently occupy the Appalachian Highlands.

Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhu, Jiang

2017-01-01

Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection.

Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate

PubMed Central

Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhu, Jiang

2017-01-01

Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection. PMID:28070560

Understanding variability of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation in CORE-II models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downes, S. M.; Spence, P.; Hogg, A. M.

2018-03-01

The current generation of climate models exhibit a large spread in the steady-state and projected Southern Ocean upper and lower overturning circulation, with mechanisms for deep ocean variability remaining less well understood. Here, common Southern Ocean metrics in twelve models from the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) are assessed over a 60 year period. Specifically, stratification, surface buoyancy fluxes, and eddies are linked to the magnitude of the strengthening trend in the upper overturning circulation, and a decreasing trend in the lower overturning circulation across the CORE-II models. The models evolve similarly in the upper 1 km and the deep ocean, with an almost equivalent poleward intensification trend in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. However, the models differ substantially in their eddy parameterisation and surface buoyancy fluxes. In general, models with a larger heat-driven water mass transformation where deep waters upwell at the surface ( ∼ 55°S) transport warmer waters into intermediate depths, thus weakening the stratification in the upper 2 km. Models with a weak eddy induced overturning and a warm bias in the intermediate waters are more likely to exhibit larger increases in the upper overturning circulation, and more significant weakening of the lower overturning circulation. We find the opposite holds for a cool model bias in intermediate depths, combined with a more complex 3D eddy parameterisation that acts to reduce isopycnal slope. In summary, the Southern Ocean overturning circulation decadal trends in the coarse resolution CORE-II models are governed by biases in surface buoyancy fluxes and the ocean density field, and the configuration of the eddy parameterisation.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

CISOCUR - Residence time modelling in the Curonian Lagoon and validation through stable isotope measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umgiesser, Georg; Razinkovas-Baziukas, Arturas; Zemlys, Petras; Ertürk, Ali; Mėžinė, Jovita

2015-04-01

The spatial pattern of the hydrodynamic circulation of the Curonian lagoon, the largest European coastal lagoon, is still little understood. In absence of automatic current registration data all the existing models relied mostly on such data as water levels leaving high level of uncertainty. Here we present CISOCUR, a new project financed by European Social Fund under the Global Grant measure. The project applies a new methodology that uses the carbon stable isotope (SI) ratio of C12 and C13 that characterize different water sources entering the lagoon and may be altered by internal kinetic processes. Through the tracing of these isotope ratios different water masses can be identified. This gives the possibility to validate several hypotheses of water circulation and validate hydrodynamic models. In particular it will be possible to 1) trace water masses entering the lagoon through the Nemunas and the Klaipeda strait; 2) test the hypothesis of sediment transport mechanisms inside the lagoon; 3) evaluate the importance of physical forcing on the lagoon circulation. The use of a hydrodynamic finite element model, coupled with the SI method, will allow for a realistic description of the transport processes inside the Curonian lagoon. So the main research goal is to apply the stable isotope tracers and a finite element model to determine the circulation patterns in the Curonian lagoon. Here we show how the SI analysis was used to validate the hydrodynamic model on the basis of residence time. The average residence time of the Nemunas waters is estimated through SI data and is then compared with the model data computed through standard algorithms. Seasonal changes of carbon content are taken care of through a preliminary application of a carbon kinetic model. The results are compared to literature data.

Projections of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grainger, Simon; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Zheng, Xiaogu

2017-02-01

An analysis is made of the coherent patterns, or modes, of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height field under current and projected climate change scenarios. Using three separate multi-model ensembles (MMEs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean is separated into components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. In the CMIP5 RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 experiments, there is very little change in the twenty-first century in the intraseasonal component modes, related to the Southern annular mode (SAM) and mid-latitude wave processes. The leading three slowly-varying internal component modes are related to SAM, the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), and the South Pacific wave (SPW). Structural changes in the slow-internal SAM and ENSO modes do not exceed a qualitative estimate of the spatial sampling error, but there is a consistent increase in the ENSO-related variance. Changes in the SPW mode exceed the sampling error threshold, but cannot be further attributed. Changes in the dominant slowly-varying external mode are related to projected changes in radiative forcing. They reflect thermal expansion of the tropical troposphere and associated changes in the Hadley Cell circulation. Changes in the externally-forced associated variance in the RCP8.5 experiment are an order of magnitude greater than for the internal components, indicating that the SH seasonal mean circulation will be even more dominated by a SAM-like annular structure. Across the three MMEs, there is convergence in the projected response in the slow-external component.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-05-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25–48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

PubMed

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

2017-05-23

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Biomass Burning Data and Information

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2015-04-21

Biomass Burning Data and Information This data set represents ... geographical and temporal distribution of total amount of biomass burned. These data may be used in general circulation models (GCMs) and ... models of the atmosphere. Project Title:  Biomass Burning Discipline:  Tropospheric Composition ...

Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

2018-04-01

Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are underestimated. On the other hand, many G2 models are able to represent most of large-scale circulation over Indo-Pacific region associated with El Niño and hence provide more realistic ENSO-ISM teleconnections. Therefore, this study advocates the importance of representation/simulation of large-scale circulation patterns during El Niño years in coupled models in order to capture El Niño-monsoon teleconnections well.

Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Croley, T.E.; Luukkonen, C.L.

2003-01-01

Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

Spice: Southwest Pacific Ocean Circulation and Climate Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganachaud, A. S.; Melet, A.; Maes, C.

2010-12-01

South Pacific oceanic waters are carried from the subtropical gyre centre in the westward flowing South Equatorial Current (SEC), towards the southwest Pacific-a major circulation pathway that redistributes water from the subtropics to the equator and Southern Ocean. The transit in the Coral Sea is potentially of great importance to tropical climate prediction because changes in either the temperature or the amount of water arriving at the equator have the capability to modulate ENSO and produce basin-scale climate feedbacks. The south branch is associated with comparable impacts in the Tasman Sea area. The Southwest Pacific is a region of complex circulation, with the SEC splitting in strong zonal jets upon encountering island archipelagos. Those jets partition on the Australian eastern boundary to feed the East Australian Current for the southern branch and the North Queensland Current and eventually the Equatorial Undercurrent for the northern branch. On average, the oceanic circulation is driven by the Trade Winds, and subject to substantial variability, related with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) position and intensity. The circulation, and its influence on remote and regional climate, is poorly understood due to the lack of appropriate measurements. Ocean and atmosphere scientists from Australia, France, New Zealand, the United States and Pacific Island countries initiated an international research project under the auspices of CLIVAR to comprehend the southwest Pacific Ocean circulation and its direct and indirect influence on the climate and environment. SPICE is a regionally-coordinated experiment to measure, study and monitor the ocean circulation and the SPCZ, to validate and improve numerical models, and to integrate with assimilating systems. This ongoing project reflects a strong sense that substantial progress can be made through collaboration among South Pacific national research groups, coordinated with broader South Pacific projects.

Changes in present and future circulation types frequency in northwest Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Lorenzo, María N; Ramos, Alexandre M; Taboada, Juan J; Gimeno, Luis

2011-01-21

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4(th) assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types.

Changes in Present and Future Circulation Types Frequency in Northwest Iberian Peninsula

PubMed Central

Lorenzo, María N.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Taboada, Juan J.; Gimeno, Luis

2011-01-01

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types. PMID:21283703

Biomass Burning

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2015-07-27

Projects:  Biomass Burning Definition/Description:  Biomass Burning: This data set represents the geographical and temporal distribution of total amount of biomass burned. These data may be used in general circulation models (GCMs) and ...

Projected climate change for the coastal plain region of Georgia, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climatic patterns for the Coastal Plain region of Georgia, USA, centered on Tifton, Georgia (31 28 30N, 83 31 54W) were examined for long term patterns in precipitation and air temperature. Climate projections based upon output from seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and three future Green Hous...

Tempo-spatial downscaling of multiple GCMs projections for soil erosion risk analysis at El Reno, Oklahoma, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Proper spatial and temporal treatments of climate change scenarios projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) are critical to accurate assessment of climatic impacts on natural resources and ecosystems. For accurate prediction of soil erosion risk at a particular farm or field under climate cha...

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

2013-01-01

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

Robust Hadley Circulation changes and increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections.

PubMed

Lau, William K M; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2015-03-24

In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness (suppressed rainfall and reduced tropospheric relative humidity) under CO2 warming from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model projections. We find a strengthening of the HC manifested in a "deep-tropics squeeze" (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, enhanced ascent, increased high clouds, suppressed low clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hPa) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence and reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among various water-cycle parameters examined, global dryness is found to have the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide a physical basis for inferring that greenhouse warming is likely to contribute to the observed prolonged droughts worldwide in recent decades.

A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

2018-02-01

The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

KAHVE Laboratory RF circulator and transmission line project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cetinkaya, Hakan; ćaǧlar, Aslıhan; ćiçek, Cihan; Özbey, Aydın; Sunar, Ezgi; Türemen, Görkem; Yıldız, Hüseyin; Yüncü, Alperen; Özcan, Erkcan; Ünel, Gökhan; Yaman, Fatih

2018-02-01

An 800 MHz RF circulator and transmission line project has recently started at the newly commissioned Kandilli Detector, Accelerator and Instrumentation (KAHVE) Laboratory at the Boğaziçi University. The aims are to design, build and construct an RF circulator and transmission line in Turkey for high power and high frequency applications. The project consists of 8 transmission line elements: 800 MHz RF generator with 60 kW power (klystron), klystron to waveguide converter, waveguides, E and H bends, 3-port circulator and waveguide to coaxial converter to transmit RF power to a pillbox RF cavity. Design studies and details of the ongoing project will be presented.

Arctic sea-ice variability and its implication to the path of pollutants under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro-Morales, K.; Gerdes, R.; Riemann-Campe, K.; Köberle, C.; Losch, M.

2012-04-01

The increasing concentration of pollutants from anthropogenic origin in the Arctic atmosphere, water, sediments and biota has been evident during the last decade. The sea-ice is an important vehicle for pollutants in the Arctic Ocean. Pollutants are taken up by precipitation and dry atmospheric deposition over the snow and ice cover during winter and released to the ocean during melting. Recent changes in the sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean affect the fresh water balance and the oceanic circulation, and with it, the fate of pollutants in the system. The Arctic Ocean is characterized by complex dynamics and strong stratification. Thus, to evaluate the current and future changes in the Arctic circulation high-resolution models are needed. As part of the EU FP7 project ArcRisk (under the scope of the IPY), we use a high resolution regional sea-ice-ocean coupled model covering the Arctic Ocean and the subpolar North Atlantic based on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology - circulation model (MITgcm). Under realistic atmospheric forcing we obtain hindcast results of circulation patterns for the period 1990 - 2010 for validation of the model. We evaluate possible consequences on the pathways and transport of contaminants by downscaling future climate scenario runs available in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) for the following fifty years. Particular interest is set in the Barents Sea. In this shallow region strong river runoff, sea-ice delivered from the interior of the Arctic Ocean and warm waters from the North Atlantic current are main sources of contaminants. Under a changing climate, a higher input of contaminants delivered to surface waters is expected, remaining in the interior of the Arctic Ocean in a strongly stratified water column remaining.

Walker circulation in a transient climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesca, Elina; Grützun, Verena; Buehler, Stefan A.

2016-04-01

The tropical overturning circulations modulate the heat exchange across the tropics and between the tropics and the poles. The anthropogenic influence on the climate system will affect these circulations, impacting the dynamics of the Earth system. In this work we focus on the Walker circulation. We investigate its temporal and spatial dynamical changes and their link to other climate features, such as surface and sea-surface temperature patterns, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and ocean heat-uptake, both at global and regional scale. In order to determine the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the tropical circulation, we analyze the outputs of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project. We use the experiment with 1% year-1 increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling of the concentration. Consistent with previous studies (ex. Ma and Xie 2013), we find that for this experiment most GCMs associate a weakening Walker circulation to a warming transient climate. Due to the role of the Walker Pacific cell in the meridional heat and moisture transport across the tropical Pacific and also the connection to ENSO, we find that a weakened Walker circulation correlates with more extreme El-Niño events, although without a change in their frequency. The spatial analysis of the Pacific Walker cell suggests an eastward displacement of the ascending branch, which is consistent with positive SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and the link of the Pacific Walker cell to ENSO. Recent studies (ex. England et al. 2014) have linked a strengthened Walker circulation to stronger ocean heat uptake, especially in the western Pacific. The inter-model comparison of the correlation between Walker circulation intensity and ocean heat uptake does not convey a robust response for the investigated experiment. However, there is some evidence that a stronger weakening of the Walker circulation is linked to a higher transient climate response (temperature change by the time of CO2 doubling), which in turn might be related to a decreased ocean heat uptake. This uncertainty across the models we attribute to the multitude of factors controlling ocean and atmosphere heat exchange, both at global and regional scales, as well as to the present capabilities of GCMs in simulating this exchange. References: England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A., 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change 4 (3): 222-227. Ma, J., and Xie, S. P., 2013. Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation*. Journal of Climate, 26 (8): 2482-2501

Estimation and Validation of Oceanic Mass Circulation from the GRACE Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boy, J.-P.; Rowlands, D. D.; Sabaka, T. J.; Luthcke, S. B.; Lemoine, F. G.

2011-01-01

Since the launch of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) in March 2002, the Earth's surface mass variations have been monitored with unprecedented accuracy and resolution. Compared to the classical spherical harmonic solutions, global high-resolution mascon solutions allows the retrieval of mass variations with higher spatial and temporal sampling (2 degrees and 10 days). We present here the validation of the GRACE global mascon solutions by comparing mass estimates to a set of about 100 ocean bottom pressure (OSP) records, and show that the forward modelling of continental hydrology prior to the inversion of the K-band range rate data allows better estimates of ocean mass variations. We also validate our GRACE results to OSP variations modelled by different state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models, including ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) and operational and reanalysis from the MERCATOR project.

Drying Characteristics and Water-soluble Polysaccharides Evaluation of Kidney Shape Ganoderma lucidum Drying in Air Circulation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyo, D. J.; Jatmiko, T. H.; Poeloengasih, C. D.; Kismurtono, M.

2017-12-01

In this project, drying kinetic of kidney shape Ganoderma lucidum fruiting body in air circulation system was studied. The drying experiments were conducted at 40, 50 and 60°C with air flow rate of 1.3 ms-1. Samples were weighted periodically until no change in sample weight was recorded, and then the samples were analyzed for its moisture content. Four different thin-layer mathematical models (Newton, Page, Two-term, Midilli) were used and compare to evaluate the drying curves of kidney shape G. lucidum. The water-soluble polysaccharides were evaluated in order to find the best drying temperature condition. The results indicates that Midilli model was the fittest model to describe the characteristic of kidney shape G. lucidum in the air circulation drying system and temperature of 50°C was the best drying condition to get highest value of water-soluble polysaccharides.

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, Jose A.; Ambrizzi, Tercio; Da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Alves, Lincoln M.; Cuadra, Santiago V.; Valverde, Maria C.; Torres, Roger R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.

2010-11-01

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N-15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

Maritime Continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toh, Ying Ying; Turner, Andrew G.; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Holloway, Christopher E.

2018-02-01

The fidelity of 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating mean climate over the Maritime Continent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment is evaluated in this study. The performance of AMIP models varies greatly in reproducing seasonal mean climate and the seasonal cycle. The multi-model mean has better skill at reproducing the observed mean climate than the individual models. The spatial pattern of 850 hPa wind is better simulated than the precipitation in all four seasons. We found that model horizontal resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Instead, a model's local Maritime Continent biases are somewhat related to its biases in the local Hadley circulation and global monsoon. The comparison with coupled models in CMIP5 shows that AMIP models generally performed better than coupled models in the simulation of the global monsoon and local Hadley circulation but less well at simulating the Maritime Continent annual cycle of precipitation. To characterize model systematic biases in the AMIP runs, we performed cluster analysis on Maritime Continent annual cycle precipitation. Our analysis resulted in two distinct clusters. Cluster I models are able to capture both the winter monsoon and summer monsoon shift, but they overestimate the precipitation; especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Cluster II models simulate weaker seasonal migration than observed, and the maximum rainfall position stays closer to the equator throughout the year. The tropics-wide properties of these clusters suggest a connection between the skill of simulating global properties of the monsoon circulation and the skill of simulating the regional scale of Maritime Continent precipitation.

Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part I: Past changes and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Shiogama, Hideo

2014-11-01

Land-sea surface air temperature (SAT) contrast, an index of tropospheric thermodynamic structure and dynamical circulation, has shown a significant increase in recent decades over East Asia during the boreal summer. In Part I of this two-part paper, observational data and the results of transient warming experiments conducted using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed to examine changes in land-sea thermal contrast and the associated atmospheric circulation over East Asia from the past to the future. The interannual variability of the land-sea SAT contrast over the Far East for 1950-2012 was found to be tightly coupled with a characteristic tripolar pattern of tropospheric circulation over East Asia, which manifests as anticyclonic anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and around the Philippines, and a cyclonic anomaly over Japan during a positive phase, and vice versa. In response to CO2 increase, the cold northeasterly winds off the east coast of northern Japan and the East Asian rainband were strengthened with the circulation pattern well projected on the observed interannual variability. These results are commonly found in GCMs regardless of future forcing scenarios, indicating the robustness of the East Asian climate response to global warming. The physical mechanisms responsible for the increase of the land-sea contrast are examined in Part II.

Validation of the BASALT model for simulating off-axis hydrothermal circulation in oceanic crust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, Navah X.; Archer, David; Abbot, Dorian S.

2017-08-01

Fluid recharge and discharge between the deep ocean and the porous upper layer of off-axis oceanic crust tends to concentrate in small volumes of rock, such as seamounts and fractures, that are unimpeded by low-permeability sediments. Basement structure, sediment burial, heat flow, and other regional characteristics of off-axis hydrothermal systems appear to produce considerable diversity of circulation behaviors. Circulation of seawater and seawater-derived fluids controls the extent of fluid-rock interaction, resulting in significant geochemical impacts. However, the primary regional characteristics that control how seawater is distributed within upper oceanic crust are still poorly understood. In this paper we present the details of the two-dimensional (2-D) BASALT (Basement Activity Simulated At Low Temperatures) numerical model of heat and fluid transport in an off-axis hydrothermal system. This model is designed to simulate a wide range of conditions in order to explore the dominant controls on circulation. We validate the BASALT model's ability to reproduce observations by configuring it to represent a thoroughly studied transect of the Juan de Fuca Ridge eastern flank. The results demonstrate that including series of narrow, ridge-parallel fractures as subgrid features produces a realistic circulation scenario at the validation site. In future projects, a full reactive transport version of the validated BASALT model will be used to explore geochemical fluxes in a variety of off-axis hydrothermal environments.

Multi-Scale Models for the Scale Interaction of Organized Tropical Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qiu

Assessing the upscale impact of organized tropical convection from small spatial and temporal scales is a research imperative, not only for having a better understanding of the multi-scale structures of dynamical and convective fields in the tropics, but also for eventually helping in the design of new parameterization strategies to improve the next-generation global climate models. Here self-consistent multi-scale models are derived systematically by following the multi-scale asymptotic methods and used to describe the hierarchical structures of tropical atmospheric flows. The advantages of using these multi-scale models lie in isolating the essential components of multi-scale interaction and providing assessment of the upscale impact of the small-scale fluctuations onto the large-scale mean flow through eddy flux divergences of momentum and temperature in a transparent fashion. Specifically, this thesis includes three research projects about multi-scale interaction of organized tropical convection, involving tropical flows at different scaling regimes and utilizing different multi-scale models correspondingly. Inspired by the observed variability of tropical convection on multiple temporal scales, including daily and intraseasonal time scales, the goal of the first project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle on the planetary-scale circulation such as the Hadley cell. As an extension of the first project, the goal of the second project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In the third project, the goals are to simulate the baroclinic aspects of the ITCZ breakdown and assess its upscale impact on the planetary-scale circulation over the eastern Pacific. These simple multi-scale models should be useful to understand the scale interaction of organized tropical convection and help improve the parameterization of unresolved processes in global climate models.

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Condron, Alan

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS showmore » the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.« less

Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

PubMed

Schmittner, Andreas

2005-03-31

Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period. Projections with climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate-ecosystem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations, a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass, owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord, and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations

Treesearch

Yunjun Yao; Shunlin Liang; Xianglan Li; Shaomin Liu; Jiquan Chen; Xiaotong Zhang; Kun Jia; Bo Jiang; Xianhong Xie; Simon Munier; Meng Liu; Jian Yu; Anders Lindroth; Andrej Varlagin; Antonio Raschi; Asko Noormets; Casimiro Pio; Georg Wohlfahrt; Ge Sun; Jean-Christophe Domec; Leonardo Montagnani; Magnus Lund; Moors Eddy; Peter D. Blanken; Thomas Grunwald; Sebastian Wolf; Vincenzo Magliulo

2016-01-01

The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the globalhydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison...

Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges.

PubMed

Alley, Richard B

2003-09-15

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

76 FR 12217 - Exempt Discretionary Program Grants (Section 5309) for Urban Circulator Systems

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-04

... redevelopment of urban spaces into walkable mixed use, high density environments. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION... development. FTA's approval to advance the Urban Circulator projects through project development and grant... urban circulators shall be required to submit information that describes the impact of the urban...

Web-based access, aggregation, and visualization of future climate projections with emphasis on agricultural assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol

2018-01-01

Access to climate and spatial datasets by non-specialists is restricted by technical barriers involving hardware, software and data formats. We discuss an open-source online tool that facilitates downloading the climate data from the global circulation models used by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. The tool also offers temporal and spatial aggregation capabilities for incorporating future climate scenarios in applications where spatial aggregation is important. We hope that streamlined access to these data facilitates analysis of climate related issues while considering the uncertainties derived from future climate projections and temporal aggregation choices.

The study of the hydrological regime extreme effects of the Caspian Sea during the XX-XXI centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaitskaya, Natalia

2016-04-01

The Caspian Sea - the unique largest enclosed inland body of water on Earth. Significant periodic sea level fluctuations are a typical feature of the sea. In the XIX-XX centuries a number of comprehensive studies of the Caspian Sea was carried out. The results are published in the papers, monographs and climatic atlases. But a number of fundamental questions about the features of the hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea is still open: 1. How does the water circulation change during the level variations? 2. What is the effect of heterogeneity of evaporation from the water surface on the formation of the flow field in the conditions of long-term level changes? 3. How does the water salinity regime change depending on the sea level position, water circulation, river flow and different climatic influences? 4. What is the effect of extreme events (multi-hazards) (ice, storms, destruction of the coasts) on coastal infrastructure? In 2016, the project aims to study hydrological regime extreme effects of the Caspian Sea was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research. Within this project all of the above problems will be solved. Geographic information system "Caspian Sea" for the storage and data processing, including a database of primary oceanographic information for the period of instrumental observations (1897-2013), cartographic database (1921-2011) and tools for multidimensional analysis of spatio-temporal information is the basis of the study. The scheme of interconnected hydrodynamic models (Caspian Sea MODel - Ocean Model - Wind wave model) was developed. The important factors are taken into account in the structure of the models: long-term and seasonal dynamics of the sea waves parameters, new long-term values of evaporation from the shallow waters areas of the Caspian Sea, water circulation. Schemes of general seasonal circulation of the Caspian Sea and the Northern Caspian at different positions of the sea level in XX-XXI centuries using interconnected models will be reconstructed. Forecast of seasonal water circulation for the most probable climate change scenarios in the future will be done. Conceptual scheme of calculations of the multi-hazards (ice storms, the destruction of the coasts) in the Caspian Sea was developed. The similar method of calculation was successfully applied to the prediction of natural hazards in the Sea of Azov. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No.16-35-60046 mol_a_dk.

Ice-Shelf Melt Response to Changing Winds and Glacier Dynamics in the Amundsen Sea Sector, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat-Magnin, Marion; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Spence, Paul; Le Sommer, Julien; Gallée, Hubert; Durand, Gaël.

2017-12-01

It has been suggested that the coastal Southern Ocean subsurface may warm over the 21st century in response to strengthening and poleward shifting winds, with potential adverse effects on West Antarctic glaciers. However, using a 1/12° ocean regional model that includes ice-shelf cavities, we find a more complex response to changing winds in the Amundsen Sea. Simulated offshore subsurface waters get colder under strengthened and poleward shifted winds representative of the SAM projected trend. The buoyancy-driven circulation induced by ice-shelf melt transports this cold offshore anomaly onto the continental shelf, leading to cooling and decreased melt below 450 m. In the vicinity of ice-shelf fronts, Ekman pumping contributes to raise the isotherms in response to changing winds. This effect overwhelms the horizontal transport of colder offshore waters at intermediate depths (between 200 and 450 m), and therefore increases melt rates in the upper part of the ice-shelf cavities, which reinforces the buoyancy-driven circulation and further contributes to raise the isotherms. Then, prescribing an extreme grounding line retreat projected for 2100, the total melt rates simulated underneath Thwaites and Pine Island are multiplied by 2.5. Such increase is explained by a larger ocean/ice interface exposed to CDW, which is then amplified by a stronger melt-induced circulation along the ice draft. Our main conclusions are that (1) outputs from ocean models that do not represent ice shelf cavities (e.g., CMIP5 models) should not be directly used to predict the thermal forcing of future ice shelf cavities; (2) coupled ocean/ice sheet models with a velocity-dependent melt formulation are needed for future projections of glaciers experiencing a significant grounding line retreat.

Assessing the Impacts of Mid-latitude Circulation Changes under +1.5ºC and +2ºC Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, C.; Bethke, I.; Seland Graff, L.; Iversen, T.; Li, C.; Mitchell, D.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

Understanding the mid-latitude circulation and its response to global warming is critical for accurately assessing the ensuing regional impacts. Uncertainty in the response arises from uncertainty in emissions scenarios, the climate model used, and the large internal variability of the mid-latitudes. Here, we investigate the latter two sources of uncertainty in the forced response to weak warming using multi-model large ensembles. The experiments are part of the project "Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Implications" (HAPPI), following up on the Paris Agreement of 2015 (Mitchell et al., 2017). With 100 to 501 members from at least five state-of-the-art models, the experiment set allows us to estimate the regional impacts associated with robust responses of the mid-latitude circulation under +1.5ºC and +2ºC warming, and to partition the sources of uncertainty using an analysis of variance method (Samson et al., 2013). In the Northern Hemisphere, the upper-level and eddy-driven jets, as well as the storm track, shift in the warming experiments but the response can be nonlinear with warming. Robust stationary wave changes are seen in North Pacific and North America. Internal variability dominates the spread in the responses, although model spread contributes substantially over Europe, the North Atlantic, and the North Pacific jet entrance. We show how these responses impact temperature and precipitation in specific areas, such as western Europe and North America. Finally, we assess the changes in frequency and duration of blocking events. Results from this study will allow us to better quantify weather-related impacts and risks in a warming climate, and help evaluate how the projected changes may affect society on climatological time scales.

Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

2018-03-01

The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

Demonstrating the Alaska Ocean Observing System in Prince William Sound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoch, G. Carl; McCammon, Molly

2013-07-01

The Alaska Ocean Observing System and the Oil Spill Recovery Institute developed a demonstration project over a 5 year period in Prince William Sound. The primary goal was to develop a quasi-operational system that delivers weather and ocean information in near real time to diverse user communities. This observing system now consists of atmospheric and oceanic sensors, and a new generation of computer models to numerically simulate and forecast weather, waves, and ocean circulation. A state of the art data management system provides access to these products from one internet portal at http://www.aoos.org. The project culminated in a 2009 field experiment that evaluated the observing system and performance of the model forecasts. Observations from terrestrial weather stations and weather buoys validated atmospheric circulation forecasts. Observations from wave gages on weather buoys validated forecasts of significant wave heights and periods. There was an emphasis on validation of surface currents forecasted by the ocean circulation model for oil spill response and search and rescue applications. During the 18 day field experiment a radar array mapped surface currents and drifting buoys were deployed. Hydrographic profiles at fixed stations, and by autonomous vehicles along transects, were made to acquire measurements through the water column. Terrestrial weather stations were the most reliable and least costly to operate, and in situ ocean sensors were more costly and considerably less reliable. The radar surface current mappers were the least reliable and most costly but provided the assimilation and validation data that most improved ocean circulation forecasts. We describe the setting of Prince William Sound and the various observational platforms and forecast models of the observing system, and discuss recommendations for future development.

Recent intensification of the Walker Circulation and the role of natural sea surface temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X.; Allen, R.

2017-12-01

In a warming world, the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation-including the Walker Circulation-is expected to weaken due to thermodynamic constraints. Tropical precipitation increases at a slower rate than water vapor-which increases according to Clausius Clapeyron scaling, assuming constant relative humidity-so the tropical overturning circulation slows down. This is supported by both observations and model simulations, which show a slowdown of the Walker Circulation over the 20th century. Model projections suggest a further weakening of the Walker Circulation in the 21st century. However, over the last several decades (1979-2014), multiple observations reveal a robust strengthening of the Walker Circulation. Although coupled CMIP5 simulations are unable to reproduce this strengthening, AMIP simulations-which feature the observed evolution of SSTs-are generally able to reproduce it. Assuming the ensemble mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from historical CMIP5 simulations accurately represent the externally forced SST response, the observed SSTs can be decomposed into a forced and an unforced component. CAM5 AMIP-type simulations driven by the unforced component of observed SSTs reproduce the observed strengthening of the Walker Circulation. Corresponding simulations driven by the forced component of observed SSTs yield a weaker Walker Circulation. These results are consistent with the zonal tropical SST gradient and the Bjerknes feedback. The unforced component of SSTs yield an increased SST gradient over tropical Pacific (a La Nina like pattern) and strengthening of the tropical trade winds, which constitute the lower branch of the Walker Circulation. The forced component of SSTs yields a zonally uniform tropical Pacific SST warming and a marginal weakening of the Walker Circulation. Our results suggest significant modulation of the tropical Walker Circulation by natural SST variability over the last several decades.

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Zhou, Wen

2018-01-01

We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

Atlantic Ocean Circulation at the Last Glacial Maximum: Inferences from Data and Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

available. Uncertainties in proxies themselves, and in the dating of the proxy records, are generally lower for the LGM than for periods further back...proven useful in understanding new aspects of the modern ocean circulation. Due to the poor dating resolution of sediment cores from the LGM period, and...Environmental Processes of the Ice Age: Land, Oceans, Glaciers (EPI- LOG) project was an effort to reconstruct the state of the Earth in glacial states; a

A Mathematical Model of the Illinois Interlibrary Loan Network. Project Report Number 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouse, William B.; Rouse, Sandra H.

Relatively recent developments, ranging from microfilm catalogs to networked circulation systems, have the potential of removing much of the uncertainty from the routing of interlibrary loan requests. The opportunity of purchasing location and availability information changes the performance of a model interlibrary loan network. Data collected in…

Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

Treesearch

Azad Henareh Khalyani; William A. Gould; Eric Harmsen; Adam Terando; Maya Quinones; Jaime A. Collazo

2016-01-01

Application of Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) to estimate climate variability impacts on nutrient loading from local watersheds

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; Prem B. Parajuli; Gary Feng; Theodor D. Leininger; Yongshan Wan; Padmanava Dash

2018-01-01

A vast amount of future climate scenario datasets, created by climate models such as general circulation models (GCMs), have been used in conjunction with watershed models to project future climate variability impact on hydrological processes and water quality. However, these low spatial-temporal resolution datasets are often difficult to downscale spatially and...

Upgrades, Current Capabilities and Near-Term Plans of the NASA ARC Mars Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, Melinda April; Haberle, Robert M.; Schaeffer, James R.

2012-01-01

We describe and review recent upgrades to the ARC Mars climate modeling framework, in particular, with regards to physical parameterizations (i.e., testing, implementation, modularization and documentation); the current climate modeling capabilities; selected research topics regarding current/past climates; and then, our near-term plans related to the NASA ARC Mars general circulation modeling (GCM) project.

Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system: a Bayesian fusion of century-scale observations with a simple model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, Nathan M.; Keller, Klaus

2010-10-01

How has the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) varied over the past centuries and what is the risk of an anthropogenic AMOC collapse? We report probabilistic projections of the future climate which improve on previous AMOC projection studies by (i) greatly expanding the considered observational constraints and (ii) carefully sampling the tail areas of the parameter probability distribution function (pdf). We use a Bayesian inversion to constrain a simple model of the coupled climate, carbon cycle and AMOC systems using observations to derive multicentury hindcasts and projections. Our hindcasts show considerable skill in representing the observational constraints. We show that robust AMOC risk estimates can require carefully sampling the parameter pdfs. We find a low probability of experiencing an AMOC collapse within the 21st century for a business-as-usual emissions scenario. The probability of experiencing an AMOC collapse within two centuries is 1/10. The probability of crossing a forcing threshold and triggering a future AMOC collapse (by 2300) is approximately 1/30 in the 21st century and over 1/3 in the 22nd. Given the simplicity of the model structure and uncertainty in the forcing assumptions, our analysis should be considered a proof of concept and the quantitative conclusions subject to severe caveats.

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.

2017-10-01

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Stratosphere-resolving CMIP5 models simulate different changes in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rea, Gloria; Riccio, Angelo; Fierli, Federico; Cairo, Francesco; Cagnazzo, Chiara

2018-03-01

This work documents long-term changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation in the austral spring-summer season in the Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, showing that those changes are larger in magnitude and closer to ERA-Interim and other reanalyses if models include a dynamical representation of the stratosphere. Specifically, models with a high-top and included dynamical and—in some cases—chemical feedbacks within the stratosphere better simulate the lower stratospheric cooling observed over 1979-2001 and strongly driven by ozone depletion, when compared to the other models. This occurs because high-top models can fully capture the stratospheric large scale circulation response to the ozone-induced cooling. Interestingly, this difference is also found at the surface for the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) changes, even though all model categories tend to underestimate SAM trends over those decades. In this analysis, models including a proper dynamical stratosphere are more sensitive to lower stratospheric cooling in their tropospheric circulation response. After a brief discussion of two RCP scenarios, our study confirms that at least for large changes in the extratropical regions, stratospheric changes induced by external forcing have to be properly simulated, as they are important drivers of tropospheric climate variations.

Do Coupled Climate Models Correctly SImulate the Upward Branch of the Deept Ocean Global Conveyor?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarmiento, Jorge L; Downes, Stephanie; Bianchi, Daniele

The large-scale meridional overturning circulation (MOC) connects the deep ocean, a major reservoir of carbon, to the other components of the climate system and must therefore be accurately represented in Earth System Models. Our project aims to address the specific question of the pathways and mechanisms controlling the upwelling branch of the MOC, a subject of significant disagreement between models and observational syntheses, and among general circulation models. Observations of these pathways are limited, particularly in regions of complex hydrography such as the Southern Ocean. As such, we rely on models to examine theories of the overturning circulation, both physicallymore » and biogeochemically. This grant focused on a particular aspect of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) where there is currently significant disagreement between models and observationally based analyses of the MOC, and amongst general circulation models. In particular, the research focused on addressing the following questions: 1. Where does the deep water that sinks in the polar regions rise to the surface? 2. What processes are responsible for this rise? 3. Do state-of-the-art coupled GCMs capture these processes? Our research had three key components: observational synthesis, model development and model analysis. In this final report we outline the key results from these areas of research for the 2007 to 2012 grant period. The research described here was carried out primarily by graduate student, Daniele Bianchi (now a Postdoc at McGill University, Canada), and Postdoc Stephanie Downes (now a Research Fellow at The Australian national University, Australia). Additional support was provided for programmers Jennifer Simeon as well as Rick Slater.« less

Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela

2014-05-01

Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

The Practitioner's Dilemma: How to Assess the Credibility of Downscaled Climate Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barsugli, Joseph J.; Guentchev, Galina; Horton, Radley M.; Wood, Andrew; Mearns, Lindo O.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Winkler, Julia A.; Dixon, Keith; Hayhoe, Katharine; Rood, Richard B.;

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Jonathan M.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Griffies, Stephen M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hurlin, William J.; Jungclaus, Johann; Kelley, Maxwell; Lee, Warren G.; Marshall, John; Romanou, Anastasia;

American Issues Forum: Active Projects--Summary Report [And] Nationally Circulated Materials.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Endowment for the Humanities (NFAH), Washington, DC.

These two reports briefly describe the active projects and nationally circulated mateirals associated with the American Issues Forum Bicentennial Programs. The summary report of active projects is designed to show how various national media, national and international organizations, corporations, and state and community groups are actively…

Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta.

Treesearch

Robert A. Monserud; Yuqing Yang; Shongming Huang; Nadja Tchebakova

2008-01-01

We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is...

A framework for process-based assessment of regional climate model experiments: applied to projections of southern African precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Jones, Richard

2015-04-01

There is a demand from adaptation planners for regional climate change projections, particularly the finer resolution data delivered by regional models. However, climate models are subject to important uncertainties, and their projections diverge substantially, particularly for precipitation. So how should decision makers know which futures to consider and which to disregard? Model evaluation is clearly a priority. The majority of studies seeking to assess the validity of projections are based on comparison of the models' twentieth century climatologies with observations or reanalysis. Whilst this work is very important, examination of the modelled mean state it is not sufficient to assess the credibility of modelled changes. Direct investigation of the mechanisms for change is also vital. In this study, a framework for process-based analysis of projections is presented, whereby circulation changes accompanying future responses are examined, and then compared to atmospheric dynamics during historical years in models and reanalyses. This framework has previously been applied to investigate a drying signal in West Africa, and will here be used to examine projected precipitation change in southern Africa. An ensemble of five global and regional model experiments will be employed, consisting of five perturbed versions of HadCM3 and five corresponding runs of HadRM3P (PRECIS), run over the CORDEX Africa domain. The global and regional model runs show contrasting future responses: there is a strong drying in the global models over southern Africa during the rainy season, but the regional models show drying over Madagascar and the south west Indian Ocean. Circulation changes associated with these projections will be presented as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms for change and the reasons for difference between the global and regional models. The interannual variability will also be examined and compared to reanalysis to explore how well the models represent the dipole between southern Africa and Madagascar in the twentieth century simulations. This analysis could shed light on the credibility of the projected changes, and the relative trustworthiness of the global and regional models. This research makes a valuable contribution to the understanding of mechanisms for change in southern Africa. It also has wider relevance for regional climate model studies, in highlighting the need to evaluate models on a case by case basis, and providing a framework for assessment which could be applied to other models and other regions.

Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations.

PubMed

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie; Zhong, Shiyuan; Bian, Xindi; Doubler, Dana; Yu, Lejiang; Walters, Claudia

2017-07-10

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereas current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. The choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.

Estimating the Ocean Flow Field from Combined Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Surface Height Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stammer, Detlef; Lindstrom, Eric (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This project was part of a previous grant at MIT that was moved over to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) together with the principal investigator. The final report provided here is concerned only with the work performed at SIO since January 2000. The primary focus of this project was the study of the three-dimensional, absolute and time-evolving general circulation of the global ocean from a combined analysis of remotely sensed fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH). The synthesis of those two fields was performed with other relevant physical data, and appropriate dynamical ocean models with emphasis on constraining ocean general circulation models by a combination of both SST and SSH data. The central goal of the project was to improve our understanding and modeling of the relationship between the SST and its variability to internal ocean dynamics, and the overlying atmosphere, and to explore the relative roles of air-sea fluxes and internal ocean dynamics in establishing anomalies in SST on annual and longer time scales. An understanding of those problems will feed into the general discussion on how SST anomalies vary with time and the extend to which they interact with the atmosphere.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufresne, J.-L.; Foujols, M.-A.; Denvil, S.; Caubel, A.; Marti, O.; Aumont, O.; Balkanski, Y.; Bekki, S.; Bellenger, H.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Bopp, L.; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Cheruy, F.; Codron, F.; Cozic, A.; Cugnet, D.; de Noblet, N.; Duvel, J.-P.; Ethé, C.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Flavoni, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guez, L.; Guilyardi, E.; Hauglustaine, D.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Ghattas, J.; Joussaume, S.; Kageyama, M.; Krinner, G.; Labetoulle, S.; Lahellec, A.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Lefevre, F.; Levy, C.; Li, Z. X.; Lloyd, J.; Lott, F.; Madec, G.; Mancip, M.; Marchand, M.; Masson, S.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Mignot, J.; Musat, I.; Parouty, S.; Polcher, J.; Rio, C.; Schulz, M.; Swingedouw, D.; Szopa, S.; Talandier, C.; Terray, P.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.

2013-05-01

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathis, Moritz; Elizalde, Alberto; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2018-04-01

Climate change impact studies for the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) make use of various dynamical downscaling strategies in the experimental setup of regional ocean circulation models. Projected change signals from coupled and uncoupled downscalings with different domain sizes and forcing global and regional models show substantial uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate influences of the downscaling strategy on projected changes in the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the NWES. Our results indicate that uncertainties due to different downscaling strategies are similar to uncertainties due to the choice of the parent global model and the downscaling regional model. Downscaled change signals reveal to depend stronger on the downscaling strategy than on the model skills in simulating present-day conditions. Uncoupled downscalings of sea surface temperature (SST) changes are found to be tightly constrained by the atmospheric forcing. The incorporation of coupled air-sea interaction, by contrast, allows the regional model system to develop independently. Changes in salinity show a higher sensitivity to open lateral boundary conditions and river runoff than to coupled or uncoupled atmospheric forcings. Dependencies on the downscaling strategy for changes in SST, salinity, stratification and circulation collectively affect changes in nutrient import and biological primary production.

Robust impact of coupled stratospheric ozone chemistry on the response of the Austral circulation to increased greenhouse gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiodo, G.; Polvani, L. M.

2016-12-01

Due to computational constraints, interactive stratospheric chemistry is commonly neglected in most GCMs participating in inter-comparison projects. The impact of this simplification on the modeled response to external forcings remains largely unexplored. In this work, we examine the impact of the stratospheric chemistry coupling on the SH circulation response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2. We accomplish this with a version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate (WACCM) model, which allows coupling and de-coupling stratospheric chemistry, without altering any other physical parameterization. We find that the chemistry coupling in WACCM significantly reduces (by about 20%) the response of both eddy-driven mid-latitude jet and the Hadley Cell strength, without altering the surface temperature response. This behavior is linked to the representation of stratospheric ozone, and its effects on the meridional temperature gradient at the extratropical tropopause. Our results imply that neglecting stratospheric ozone chemistry results in a potential overestimation of the circulation response to GHGs. Hence, stratospheric ozone chemistry produces a substantial negative feedback on the response of the atmospheric circulation to increased greenhouse gases.

Global warming and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature: Why models and observations do not agree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coats, Sloan; Karnauskas, Kristopher

2017-04-01

The pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean provides an important control on global climate, necessitating an understanding of how this pattern will change in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) overwhelmingly project a decrease in the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient over the coming century. This decrease is, in part, a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation in the CMIP5 models, a consequence of the mass and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle identified by Held and Soden (2006). CMIP5 models, however, are not able to reproduce the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient between 1900-2013 C.E., which we argue to be robust using advanced statistical techniques and new observational datasets. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al. (1996), we provide evidence that a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) also contributes to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling. Importantly, the strengthening EUC is a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation and thus can help to reconcile the range of opposing theories and observations of anthropogenic climate change in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Because of a newly identified bias in their simulation of equatorial coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics, however, CMIP5 models do not capture the magnitude of the response of the EUC to anthropogenic radiative forcing. Consequently, they project a continuation of the opposite to what has been observed in the real world, with potentially serious consequences for projected climate impacts that are influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean.

A Model of Cooperation: The VALNet Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oberg, Larry R.

1986-01-01

Description of VALNet (Valley Library Consortium), a consortium of public, academic, and school libraries in Idaho, highlights proposed online public access union catalog which would include nonbibliographic and referral files and circulation and serials control modules. The political climate, marketing, needs assessment, support and consultation,…

Robust Hadley Circulation Changes and Increasing Global Dryness Due to CO2 Warming from CMIP-5 Model Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness under CO2 warming from CMIP-5 model projections. We find a strengthening of the ascending branch of the HC manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, increased high clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hectopascals) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence, reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among water cycle parameters examined, global dryness has the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide scientific bases for inferring that the observed tend of prolonged droughts in recent decades is likely attributable to greenhouse warming.

Precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula: an overview of the CLIPE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, João A.; Gonçalves, Paulo M.; Rodrigues, Tiago; Carvalho, Maria J.; Rocha, Alfredo

2014-05-01

The main aims of the project "Climate change of precipitation extreme episodes in the Iberian Peninsula and its forcing mechanisms - CLIPE" are 1) to diagnose the climate change signal in the precipitation extremes over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and 2) to identify the underlying physical mechanisms. For the first purpose, a multi-model ensemble of 25 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations, from the ENSEMBLES project, is used. These experiments were generated by 15 RCMs, driven by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under both historic conditions (1951-2000) and SRES A1B scenario (2001-2100). In this project, daily precipitation and mean sea level pressure, for the periods 1961-1990 (recent past) and 2021-2100 (future), are used. Using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) on a daily basis, a precipitation extreme is defined by the pair of threshold values (Dmin, Imin), where Dmin is the minimum number of consecutive days with daily SPI above the Imin value. For both past and future climates, a precipitation extreme of a specific type is then characterised by two variables: the number of episodes with a specific duration in days and the number of episodes with a specific mean intensity (SPI/duration). Climate change is also assessed by changes in their Probability Density Functions (PDFs), estimated at sectors representative of different precipitation regimes. Lastly, for the second objective of this project, links between precipitation and Circulation Weather Regimes (CWRs) are explored for both past and future climates. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project CLIPE (PTDC/AAC-CLI/111733/2009).

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

Ocean regional circulation model sensitizes to resolution of the lateral boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Van Sy; Hwang, Jin Hwan

2017-04-01

Dynamical downscaling with nested regional oceanographic models is an effective approach for forecasting operationally coastal weather and projecting long term climate on the ocean. Nesting procedures deliver the unwanted in dynamic downscaling due to the differences of numerical grid sizes and updating steps. Therefore, such unavoidable errors restrict the application of the Ocean Regional Circulation Model (ORCMs) in both short-term forecasts and long-term projections. The current work identifies the effects of errors induced by computational limitations during nesting procedures on the downscaled results of the ORCMs. The errors are quantitatively evaluated for each error source and its characteristics by the Big-Brother Experiments (BBE). The BBE separates identified errors from each other and quantitatively assess the amount of uncertainties employing the same model to simulate for both nesting and nested model. Here, we focus on discussing errors resulting from two main matters associated with nesting procedures. They should be the spatial grids' differences and the temporal updating steps. After the diverse cases from separately running of the BBE, a Taylor diagram was adopted to analyze the results and suggest an optimization intern of grid size and updating period and domain sizes. Key words: lateral boundary condition, error, ocean regional circulation model, Big-Brother Experiment. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled "Development of integrated estuarine management system" and a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant (No. 2015R1A5A 7037372) funded by MSIP of Korea. The authors thank the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of Seoul National University for administrative support.

Fast Adjustments of the Asian Summer Monsoon to Anthropogenic Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang; Lee, Dong Eun

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic aerosols are a major factor contributing to human-induced climate change, particularly over the densely populated Asian monsoon region. Understanding the physical processes controlling the aerosol-induced changes in monsoon rainfall is essential for reducing the uncertainties in the future projections of the hydrological cycle. Here we use multiple coupled and atmospheric general circulation models to explore the physical mechanisms for the aerosol-driven monsoon changes on different time scales. We show that anthropogenic aerosols induce an overall reduction in monsoon rainfall and circulation, which can be largely explained by the fast adjustments over land north of 20∘N. This fast response occurs before changes in sea surface temperature (SST), largely driven by aerosol-cloud interactions. However, aerosol-induced SST feedbacks (slow response) cause substantial changes in the monsoon meridional circulation over the oceanic regions. Both the land-ocean asymmetry and meridional temperature gradient are key factors in determining the overall monsoon circulation response.

Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, A.W.; Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, K.

2011-04-08

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs,more » we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.« less

Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research. Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, Andrew W.; Ghil, Michael

2011-04-08

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs,more » we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.« less

Numerical Simulation Applications in the Design of EGS Collab Experiment 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, Henry; White, Mark D.; Fu, Pengcheng

The United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is funding a collaborative investigation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) processes at the meso-scale. This study, referred to as the EGS Collab project, is a unique opportunity for scientists and engineers to investigate the creation of fracture networks and circulation of fluids across those networks under in-situ stress conditions. The EGS Collab project is envisioned to comprise three experiments and the site for the first experiment is on the 4850 Level (4,850 feet below ground surface) in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, locatedmore » at the former Homestake Gold Mine, in Lead, South Dakota. Principal objectives of the project are to develop a number of intermediate-scale field sites and to conduct well-controlled in situ experiments focused on rock fracture behavior and permeability enhancement. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO's flagship EGS research effort. As noted, outcomes from the EGS Collab project experiments will serve as benchmarks for computer code verification, but numerical simulation additionally plays an essential role in designing these meso-scale experiments. This paper describes specific numerical simulations supporting the design of Experiment 1, a field test involving hydraulic stimulation of two fractures from notched sections of the injection borehole and fluid circulation between sub-horizontal injection and production boreholes in each fracture individually and collectively, including the circulation of chilled water. Whereas the mine drift allows for accurate and close placement of monitoring instrumentation to the developed fractures, active ventilation in the drift cooled the rock mass within the experimental volume. Numerical simulations were executed to predict seismic events and magnitudes during stimulation, initial fracture orientations for smooth horizontal wellbores, pressure requirements for fracture initiation from notched wellbores, fracture propagation during stimulation between the injection and production boreholes, tracer travel times between the injection and production boreholes, produced fluid temperatures with chilled water injections, pressure limits on fluid circulation to avoid fracture growth, temperature environment surrounding the 4850 Level drift, and fracture propagation within a stress field altered by drift excavation, ventilation cooling, and dewatering.« less

Exploiting Synoptic-Scale Climate Processes to Develop Nonstationary, Probabilistic Flood Hazard Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Brown, C.; Doss-Gollin, J.

2016-12-01

Climate model projections are commonly used for water resources management and planning under nonstationarity, but they do not reliably reproduce intense short-term precipitation and are instead more skilled at broader spatial scales. To provide a credible estimate of flood trend that reflects climate uncertainty, we present a framework that exploits the connections between synoptic-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns and local-scale flood-producing meteorological events to develop long-term flood hazard projections. We demonstrate the method for the Iowa River, where high flow episodes have been found to correlate with tropical moisture exports that are associated with a pressure dipole across the eastern continental United States We characterize the relationship between flooding on the Iowa River and this pressure dipole through a nonstationary Pareto-Poisson peaks-over-threshold probability distribution estimated based on the historic record. We then combine the results of a trend analysis of dipole index in the historic record with the results of a trend analysis of the dipole index as simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under climate change conditions through a Bayesian framework. The resulting nonstationary posterior distribution of dipole index, combined with the dipole-conditioned peaks-over-threshold flood frequency model, connects local flood hazard to changes in large-scale atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns that are related to flooding in a process-driven framework. The Iowa River example demonstrates that the resulting nonstationary, probabilistic flood hazard projection may be used to inform risk-based flood adaptation decisions.

Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; He, Chao; Chen, Zesheng

2017-10-01

The agrarian-based socioeconomic livelihood of densely populated South Asian countries is vulnerable to modest changes in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. How the ISM rainfall will evolve is a question of broad scientific and socioeconomic importance. In response to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, climate models commonly project an increase in ISM rainfall. This wetter ISM projection, however, does not consider large model errors in both the mean state and ocean warming pattern. Here we identify a relationship between biases in simulated present climate and future ISM projections in a multi-model ensemble: models with excessive present-day precipitation over the tropical western Pacific tend to project a larger increase in ISM rainfall under GHG forcing because of too strong a negative cloud-radiation feedback on sea surface temperature. The excessive negative feedback suppresses the local ocean surface warming, strengthening ISM rainfall projections via atmospheric circulation. We calibrate the ISM rainfall projections using this `present-future relationship’ and observed western Pacific precipitation. The correction reduces by about 50% of the projected rainfall increase over the broad ISM region. Our study identifies an improved simulation of western Pacific convection as a priority for reliable ISM projections.

Quantifying the effect of mixing on the mean age of air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietmüller, Simone; Eichinger, Roland; Garny, Hella; Birner, Thomas; Boenisch, Harald; Pitari, Giovanni; Mancini, Eva; Visioni, Daniele; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Rozanov, Eugene; Plummer, David A.; Scinocca, John; Jöckel, Patrick; Oman, Luke; Deushi, Makoto; Kiyotaka, Shibata; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando; Morgenstern, Olaf; Zeng, Guang; Stone, Kane Adam; Schofield, Robyn

2018-05-01

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA.

Predicting Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modes with a Climate Modeling Hierarchy -- Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michael Ghil, UCLA; Andrew W. Robertson, IRI, Columbia Univ.; Sergey Kravtsov, U. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

The goal of the project was to determine midlatitude climate predictability associated with tropical-extratropical interactions on interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. Our strategy was to develop and test a hierarchy of climate models, bringing together large GCM-based climate models with simple fluid-dynamical coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere models, through the use of advanced probabilistic network (PN) models. PN models were used to develop a new diagnostic methodology for analyzing coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in large climate simulations made with the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and to make these tools user-friendly and available to other researchers. We focused on interactions between the tropics and extratropics throughmore » atmospheric teleconnections (the Hadley cell, Rossby waves and nonlinear circulation regimes) over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and the ocean’s thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. We tested the hypothesis that variations in the strength of the THC alter sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and that the latter influence the atmosphere in high latitudes through an atmospheric teleconnection, feeding back onto the THC. The PN model framework was used to mediate between the understanding gained with simplified primitive equations models and multi-century simulations made with the PCM. The project team is interdisciplinary and built on an existing synergy between atmospheric and ocean scientists at UCLA, computer scientists at UCI, and climate researchers at the IRI.« less

Two-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity Land Surface Representation for General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, L.

1994-01-01

A simple two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) land surface model suitable for incorporation in general circulation models (GCMs) is described. The model consists of a two-layer characterization of the soil within a GCM grid cell, and uses an aerodynamic representation of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The effects of GCM spatial subgrid variability of soil moisture and a hydrologically realistic runoff mechanism are represented in the soil layers. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatalogical data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters. Surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiments (FIFE) intensive field compaigns in the summer and fall of 1987 in central Kansas, and from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) in Brazil were used to validate the mode-simulated surface energy fluxes and surface temperature.

Climate Projections from the NARCliM Project: Bayesian Model Averaging of Maximum Temperature Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Evans, J. P.; Fan, Y.

2015-12-01

NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling Project) is a regional climate project for Australia and the surrounding region. It dynamically downscales 4 General Circulation Models (GCMs) using three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to provide climate projections for the CORDEX-AustralAsia region at 50 km resolution, and for south-east Australia at 10 km resolution. The project differs from previous work in the level of sophistication of model selection. Specifically, the selection process for GCMs included (i) conducting literature review to evaluate model performance, (ii) analysing model independence, and (iii) selecting models that span future temperature and precipitation change space. RCMs for downscaling the GCMs were chosen based on their performance for several precipitation events over South-East Australia, and on model independence.Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) provides a statistically consistent framework for weighing the models based on their likelihood given the available observations. These weights are used to provide probability distribution functions (pdfs) for model projections. We develop a BMA framework for constructing probabilistic climate projections for spatially-averaged variables from the NARCliM project. The first step in the procedure is smoothing model output in order to exclude the influence of internal climate variability. Our statistical model for model-observations residuals is a homoskedastic iid process. Comparing RCMs with Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) observations is used to determine model weights through Monte Carlo integration. Posterior pdfs of statistical parameters of model-data residuals are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The uncertainty in the properties of the model-data residuals is fully accounted for when constructing the projections. We present the preliminary results of the BMA analysis for yearly maximum temperature for New South Wales state planning regions for the period 2060-2079.

Present and future connection of Asian-Pacific Oscillation to large-scale atmospheric circulations and East Asian rainfall: results of CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Botao; Xu, Ying; Shi, Ying

2018-01-01

The summer Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO), one of the major modes of climate variability over the Asian-Pacific sector, has a pronounced effect on variations of large-scale atmospheric circulations and climate. This study evaluated the capability of 30 state-of-the-art climate models among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating its association with the atmospheric circulations over the Asian-Pacific region and the precipitation over East Asia. Furthermore, their future connections under the RCP8.5 scenario were examined. The evaluation results show that 5 out of 30 climate models can well capture the observed APO-related features in a comprehensive way, including the strengthened South Asian high (SAH), deepened North Pacific trough (NPT) and northward East Asian jet (EAJ) in the upper troposphere; an intensification of the Asian low and the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) as well as a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the lower troposphere; and a decrease in East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) under the positive APO phase. Based on the five CMIP5 models' simulations, the dynamic linkages of the APO to the SAH, NPT, AL, and NPSH are projected to maintain during the second half of the twenty-first century. However, its connection with the EASR tends to reduce significantly. Such a reduction might result from the weakening of the linkage of the APO to the meridional displacement of the EAJ and WPSH as a response to the warming scenario.

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, C.; Lyon, B.; Ricciardulli, L.

2012-01-01

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Recent Trends of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle Inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Y. P.; Xu, Kuan-Man; Sud, Y. C.; Betts, A. K.

2011-01-01

Scores of modeling studies have shown that increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere impact the global hydrologic cycle; however, disagreements on regional scales are large, and thus the simulated trends of such impacts, even for regions as large as the tropics, remain uncertain. The present investigation attempts to examine such trends in the observations using satellite data products comprising Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud and radiation. Specifically, evolving trends of the tropical hydrological cycle over the last 20-30 years were identified and analyzed. The results show (1) intensification of tropical precipitation in the rising regions of the Walker and Hadley circulations and weakening over the sinking regions of the associated overturning circulation; (2) poleward shift of the subtropical dry zones (up to 2deg/decade in June-July-August (JJA) in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.3-0.7deg/decade in June-July-August and September-October-November in the Southern Hemisphere) consistent with an overall broadening of the Hadley circulation; and (3) significant poleward migration (0.9-1.7deg/decade) of cloud boundaries of Hadley cell and plausible narrowing of the high cloudiness in the Intertropical Convergence Zone region in some seasons. These results support findings of some of the previous studies that showed strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle and expansion of the Hadley cell that are potentially related to the recent global warming trends.

IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANCE SCENARIOS ON SOIL EROSION POTENTIAL IN THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMS) project that rising atmospheric concentrations of CO, and other greenhouse gases may result in lobal changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 50-100 years. quilibrium climate scenarios from 4 GCMs run under doubled CO2 c...

DOUBLED CO2 PRECIPITATION CHANGES FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA BASIN: DOWN-SCALING FROM THE GENESIS GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL. (R824807)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY

EPA Science Inventory

This study analyzes periodic variations in the climate of the mid-Atlantic Region over the last 100 years and uses general circulation models (GCMs) to project major climate trends for the next hundred years. Historical data include the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for th...

Interactions of the Cloudy Arctic Boundary Layer with Variable Surface Conditions and Large-Scale Circulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randell, David A.

2001-01-01

Our project included a variety of activities, ranging from model development to data manipulation and even participation in the SHEBA and FIRE field experiments. The following sections outline the work accomplished under these tasks. A collection of reprints is attached to this report.

Simulation of Asian monsoon seasonal variations with climate model R42L9/LASG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zaizhi; Wu, Guoxiong; Wu, Tongwen; Yu, Rucong

2004-12-01

The seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon were explored by applying the atmospheric general circulation model R42L9 that was developed recently at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP/CAS). The 20-yr (1979 1998) simulation was done using the prescribed 20-yr monthly SST and sea-ice data as required by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) II in the model. The monthly precipitation and monsoon circulations were analyzed and compared with the observations to validate the model’s performance in simulating the climatological mean and seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon. The results show that the model can capture the main features of the spatial distribution and the temporal evolution of precipitation in the Indian and East Asian monsoon areas. The model also reproduced the basic patterns of monsoon circulation. However, some biases exist in this model. The simulation of the heating over the Tibetan Plateau in summer was too strong. The overestimated heating caused a stronger East Asian monsoon and a weaker Indian monsoon than the observations. In the circulation fields, the South Asia high was stronger and located over the Tibetan Plateau. The western Pacific subtropical high was extended westward, which is in accordance with the observational results when the heating over the Tibetan Plateau is stronger. Consequently, the simulated rainfall around this area and in northwest China was heavier than in observations, but in the Indian monsoon area and west Pacific the rainfall was somewhat deficient.

Dynamical and Thermodynamic Elements of Modeled Climate Change at the East African Margin of Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannini, Alessandra; Lyon, Bradfield; Seager, Richard; Vigaud, Nicolas

2018-01-01

We propose a dynamical interpretation of model projections for an end-of-century wetting in equatorial East Africa. In the current generation of global climate models, increased atmospheric moisture content associated with warming is not the dominant process explaining the increase in rainfall, as the regional circulation is only weakly convergent even during the rainy seasons. Instead, projected wetter future conditions are generally consistent with the El Niño-like trend in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in climate models. In addition, a weakening in moisture convergence over the adjacent Congo Basin and Maritime Continent cores of convection results in the weakening of near-surface winds, which increases moisture advection from the Congo Basin core toward the East African margin. Overall confidence in the projections is limited by the significant biases in simulation of the regional climatology and disagreement between observed and modeled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends to date.

Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, T. B.; Forster, P. M.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Fläschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kirkevâg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Samset, B. H.; Shawki, D.; Shindell, D.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.

2018-03-01

Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.

North Atlantic deep water formation and AMOC in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heuzé, Céline; Wåhlin, Anna

2017-04-01

North Atlantic deep water formation processes and properties in climate models are indicative of their ability to simulate future ocean circulation, ventilation, carbon and heat uptake, and sea level rise. Historical time series of temperature, salinity, sea ice concentration and ocean transport in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas from 23 CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) models are compared with observations to reveal the causes and consequences of North Atlantic deep water formation in models. Deep convection occurs at the sea ice edge and is most realistic in models with accurate sea ice extent, mostly those using the CICE model. The trigger of deep convection varies among models; for one third it is intense surface cooling only, while the remaining two thirds also need upward mixing of subsurface warm salty water. The models with the most intense deep convection have the most accurate deep water properties, which are warmer and fresher than in the other models. They also have the strongest Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). For over half of the models, 40% of the variability of the AMOC is explained by the volumes of deep water produced in the subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas, with 3 and 4 years lag respectively. Understanding the dynamical drivers of the AMOC in models is key to realistically forecast a possible slow down and its consequences on the global circulation and marine life.

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, July 1, 1994--July 31, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, P.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.

1995-07-21

The objective of this research is to assembly and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and validation of General Circulation Models. In addition to changes due to variations in anthropogenic forcing, including greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the anthropogenic effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics.more » To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided by a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to coupled atmosphere ocean General Circulation Models. These analyses are oriented towards obtaining early evidence of anthropogenic climatic change that would lead either to confirmation, rejection or modification of model projections, and towards the statistical validation of General Circulation Model control runs and perturbation experiments.« less

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner; Mary Beth Adams; Douglas Burns; Ivan Fernandez; Myron J. Mitchell; James B. Shanley

2016-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and...

The Use of Convolutional Neural Network in Relating Precipitation to Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, B.; Hsu, K. L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sorooshian, S.

2017-12-01

Precipitation prediction in dynamical weather and climate models depends on 1) the predictability of pressure or geopotential height for the forecasting period and 2) the successive work of interpreting the pressure field in terms of precipitation events. The later task is represented as parameterization schemes in numerical models, where detailed computing inevitably blurs the hidden cause-and-effect relationship in precipitation generation. The "big data" provided by numerical simulation, reanalysis and observation networks requires better causation analysis for people to digest and realize their use. While classic synoptical analysis methods are very-often insufficient for spatially distributed high dimensional data, a Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) is developed here to directly relate precipitation with circulation. Case study carried over west coast United States during boreal winter showed that CNN can locate and capture key pressure zones of different structures to project precipitation spatial distribution with high accuracy across hourly to monthly scales. This direct connection between atmospheric circulation and precipitation offers a probe for attributing precipitation to the coverage, location, intensity and spatial structure of characteristic pressure zones, which can be used for model diagnosis and improvement.

Collaborative testing of turbulence models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradshaw, P.

1992-12-01

This project, funded by AFOSR, ARO, NASA, and ONR, was run by the writer with Profs. Brian E. Launder, University of Manchester, England, and John L. Lumley, Cornell University. Statistical data on turbulent flows, from lab. experiments and simulations, were circulated to modelers throughout the world. This is the first large-scale project of its kind to use simulation data. The modelers returned their predictions to Stanford, for distribution to all modelers and to additional participants ('experimenters')--over 100 in all. The object was to obtain a consensus on the capabilities of present-day turbulence models and identify which types most deserve future support. This was not completely achieved, mainly because not enough modelers could produce results for enough test cases within the duration of the project. However, a clear picture of the capabilities of various modeling groups has appeared, and the interaction has been helpful to the modelers. The results support the view that Reynolds-stress transport models are the most accurate.

Continued development and validation of the AER two-dimensional interactive model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, M. K. W.; Sze, N. D.; Shia, R. L.; Mackay, M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Zhou, S. T.

1996-01-01

Results from two-dimensional chemistry-transport models have been used to predict the future behavior of ozone in the stratosphere. Since the transport circulation, temperature, and aerosol surface area are fixed in these models, they cannot account for the effects of changes in these quantities, which could be modified because of ozone redistribution and/or other changes in the troposphere associated with climate changes. Interactive two-dimensional models, which calculate the transport circulation and temperature along with concentrations of the chemical species, could provide answers to complement the results from three-dimension model calculations. In this project, we performed the following tasks in pursuit of the respective goals: (1) We continued to refine the 2-D chemistry-transport model; (2) We developed a microphysics model to calculate the aerosol loading and its size distribution; (3) The treatment of physics in the AER 2-D interactive model were refined in the following areas--the heating rate in the troposphere, and wave-forcing from propagation of planetary waves.

Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie; Zhong, Shiyuan

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We also assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereasmore » current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. Furthemore, the choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.« less

Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations

DOE PAGES

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie; Zhong, Shiyuan; ...

2017-07-10

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We also assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereasmore » current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. Furthemore, the choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.« less

A Forecast Skill Comparison between CliPAS One-Tier and Two-Tier Hindcast Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Wang, B.; Kang, I.

2006-05-01

A 24-year (1981-2004) MME hindcast experimental dataset is produced under the "Climate Prediction and Its Application to Society" (CliPAS) project sponsored by Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). This dataset consists of 5 one-tier model systems from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC), Seoul National University (SNU), and University of Hawaii (UH) and 5 two-tier model systems from Florida State University (FSU), Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Lab (GFDL), SNU, and UH. Multi-model Ensemble (MME) Forecast skills of seasonal precipitation and atmospheric circulation are compared between CliPAS one-tier and two-tier hindcast experiments for seasonal mean precipitation and atmospheric circulation. For winter prediction, two-tier MME has a comparable skill to one-tier MME. However, it is demonstrated that in the Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) heavy precipitation regions, one-tier systems are superior to two-tier systems in summer season. The reason is that inclusion of the local warm pool- monsoon interaction in the one-tier system improves the ENSO teleconnection with monsoon regions. Both one-tier and two-tier MME fail to predict Indian monsoon circulation, while they have a significantly good skill for the broad scale monsoon circulation defined by Webster and Yang index. One-tier system has a much better skill to predict the monsoon circulation over the western North pacific where air-sea interaction plays an important role than two-tier system.

A new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C. R.; Dowsett, H. J.; Scher, H. D.; Robinson, M. M.

2011-12-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.264 - 3.025 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history with sustained global temperatures in the range of warming predicted for the 21st century, providing an appealing analog with which to examine the Earth system changes we might encounter in the coming century. Ongoing sea surface and deep ocean temperature reconstructions and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model simulations by the USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Group identify a dramatic North Atlantic warm anomaly coupled with increased evaporation in the mid-Pliocene, possibly driving enhanced meridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Deep Water production. However deep ocean temperature is not a conclusive proxy for water mass, and most coupled model simulations predict transient decreases in North Atlantic Deep Water production in 21st century, presenting a contrasting picture of future warmer worlds. Here, we present early results from a new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene, using δ13C of benthic foraminifera as a proxy for water mass age and the neodymium isotopic imprint on fossil fish teeth as a proxy for water mass source region along a three-site depth transect from the Walvis Ridge (subtropical South Atlantic). The deep ocean circulation reconstructions resulting from this project will add a new dimension to the PRISM effort and will be useful for both initialization and evaluation of future model simulations.

Communicating uncertainty in circulation aspects of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Ted

2017-04-01

The usual way of representing uncertainty in climate change is to define a likelihood range of possible futures, conditioned on a particular pathway of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCPs). Typically these likelihood ranges are derived from multi-model ensembles. However, there is no obvious basis for treating such ensembles as probability distributions. Moreover, for aspects of climate related to atmospheric circulation, such an approach generally leads to large uncertainty and low confidence in projections. Yet this does not mean that the associated climate risks are small. We therefore need to develop suitable ways of communicating climate risk whilst acknowledging the uncertainties. This talk will outline an approach based on conditioning the purely thermodynamic aspects of climate change, concerning which there is comparatively high confidence, on circulation-related aspects, and treating the latter through non-probabilistic storylines.

Tidal-flow, circulation, and flushing changes caused by dredge and fill in Hillsborough Bay, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goodwin, Carl R.

1991-01-01

Hillsborough Bay, Florida, underwent extensive physical changes between 1880 and 1972 because of the construction of islands, channels, and shoreline fills. These changes resulted in a progressive reduction in the quantity of tidal water that enters and leaves the bay. Dredging and filling also changed the magnitude and direction of tidal flow in most of the bay. A two-dimensional, finite-difference hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flood, ebb, and residual water transport for physical conditions in Hillsborough Bay and the northeastern part of Middle Tampa Bay during 1880, 1972, and 1985. The calibrated and verified model was used to evaluate cumulative water-transport changes resulting from construction in the study area between 1880 and 1972. The model also was used to evaluate water-transport changes as a result of a major Federal dredging project completed in 1985. The model indicates that transport changes resulting from the Federal dredging project are much less areally extensive than the corresponding transport changes resulting from construction between 1880 and 1972. Dredging-caused changes of more than 50 percent in flood and ebb water transport were computed to occur over only about 8 square miles of the 65-square-mile study area between 1972 and 1985. Model results indicate that construction between 1880 and 1972 caused changes of similar magnitude over about 23 square miles. Dredging-caused changes of more than 50 percent in residual water transport were computed to occur over only 17 square miles between 1972 and 1985. Between 1880 and 1972, changes of similar magnitude were computed to occur over an area of 45 square miles. Model results also reveal historical tide-induced circulation patterns. The patterns consist of a series of about 8 interconnected circulatory features in 1880 and as many as 15 in 1985. Dredging- and construction-caused changes in number, size, position, shape, and intensity of the circulatory features increase tide-induced circulation throughout the bay. Circulation patterns for 1880, 1972, and 1985 levels of development differ in many details, but all exhibit residual landward flow of water in the deep, central part of the bay and residual seaward flow in the shallows along the bay margins. This general residual flow pattern is confirmed by both computed transport of a hypothetical constituent and long-term salinity observations in Hillsborough Bay. The concept has been used to estimate the average time it takes a particle to move from the head to the mouth of the bay. The mean transit time was computed to be 58 days in 1880 and 29 days in 1972 and 1985. This increase in circulation and decrease in transit time since 1880 is estimated to have caused an increase in average salinity of Hillsborough Bay of about 2 parts per thousand. Dredge and fill construction is concluded to have significantly increased circulation and flushing between 1880 and 1972. Little circulation or flushing change is attributed to dredging activity since 1972.

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

PubMed Central

Goberville, Eric; Beaugrand, Grégory; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe

2015-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. PMID:25798227

On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

2014-12-01

Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient simulations we diagnose decreasing tropospheric N2O concentrations, increased transport of N2O from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and increasing stratospheric decay of N2O leading to a reduction in atmospheric lifetime of N2O, in dependency to climate change evolution.

The Relationship of Loss, Mean Age of Air and the Distribution of CFC's to Stratospheric Circulation and Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Jackman, C. H.; Gupta, M. L.; Newman, P. A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Fleming, E. L.

2008-01-01

Model-derived estimates of the annually integrated destruction and lifetime for various ozone depleting substances (ODSs) depend on the simulated stratospheric transport and mixing in the global model used to produce the estimate. Observations in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere show that the mean age of an air parcel (i.e., the time since its stratospheric entry) is related to the fractional release for the ODs (i.e., the amount of the ODS that has been destroyed relative to the amount at the time of stratospheric entry). We use back trajectory calculations to produce an age spectrum, and explain the relationship between the mean age and the fractional release by showing that older elements in the age spectrum have experienced higher altitudes and greater ODs destruction than younger elements. In our study, models with faster circulations produce distributions for the age-of-air that are 'young' compared to a distribution derived from observations. These models also fail to reproduce the observed relationship between the mean age of air and the fractional release. Models with slower circulations produce both realistic distributions for mean age and a realistic relationship between mean age and fractional release. These models also produce a CFCl3 lifetime of approximately 56 years, longer than the 45 year lifetime used to project future mixing ratios. We find that the use of flux boundary conditions in assessment models would have several advantages, including consistency between ODS evolution and simulated loss even if the simulated residual circulation changes due to climate change.

North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S.-I.; Fan, Y.; Evans, J. P.; Caesar, L.

2018-06-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios.

Patterns of crop cover under future climates.

PubMed

Porfirio, Luciana L; Newth, David; Harman, Ian N; Finnigan, John J; Cai, Yiyong

2017-04-01

We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.5 and 8.5 by four global circulation models/earth system models from 2000 to 2100. We use Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, to project the future crop cover. Our results show that, at the global scale, increases and decreases in crop cover cancel each other out. Crop cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to be impacted more by future climate than the in Southern Hemisphere because of the disparity in the warming rate and precipitation patterns between the two Hemispheres. We found that crop cover in temperate regions is projected to decrease more than in tropical regions. We identified regions of concern and opportunities for climate change adaptation and investment.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.

PubMed

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

The Role of Arctic Sea Ice in Last Millennium Climate Variability: Model-Proxy Comparisons Using Ensemble Members and Novel Model Experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gertler, C. G.; Monier, E.; Prinn, R. G.

2016-12-01

Variability in sea ice extent is a prominent feature of forced simulations of the last millennium and reconstructions of paleoclimate using proxy records. The rapid 20th century decline in sea ice extent is most likely due to greenhouse gas forcing, but the accuracy of future projections depend on the characterization of natural variability. Declining sea ice extent affects regional climate and society, but also plays a large role in Arctic amplification, with implications for mid-latitude circulation and even large-scale climate oscillations. To characterize the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on sea ice and the related changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, a combination of instrumental record, paleoclimate reconstructions, and general circulation models can be employed to recreate sea ice extents and the corresponding atmosphere-ocean states. Model output from the last millennium ensemble (LME) is compared to a proxy-based sea ice reconstruction and a global proxy network using a variety of statistical and data assimilation techniques. Further model runs using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) are performed with the same inputs as LME but forced with experimental sea ice extents, and results are contextualized within the larger ensemble by a variety of metrics.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Otte, Tanya L.

2013-04-01

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.

Recent and possible future variations in the North American Monsoon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Chris; Barlow, Mathew; Shukla, Shraddhanand

2016-01-01

The dynamics and recent and possible future changes of the June–September rainfall associated with the North American Monsoon (NAM) are reviewed in this chapter. Our analysis as well as previous analyses of the trend in June–September precipitation from 1948 until 2010 indicate significant precipitation increases over New Mexico and the core NAM region, and significant precipitation decreases over southwest Mexico. The trends in June–September precipitation have been forced by anomalous cyclonic circulation centered at 15°N latitude over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The anomalous cyclonic circulation is responsible for changes in the flux of moisture and the divergence of moisture flux within the core NAM region. Future climate projections using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), support the observed analyses of a later shift in the monsoon season in the presence of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere under the RCP8.5 scenario. The CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario predict significant NAM-related rainfall decreases during June and July and predict significant NAM-related rainfall increases during September and October.

Modeling South Pacific Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Global Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, David M.; Jenkins, Adrian; Jacobs, Stanley S.

2001-01-01

The objective of this project has been to improve the modeling of interactions between large Antarctic ice shelves and adjacent regions of the Southern Ocean. Our larger goal is to gain a better understanding of the extent to which the ocean controls ice shelf attrition, thereby influencing the size and dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Melting and freezing under ice shelves also impacts seawater properties, regional upwelling and sinking and the larger-scale ocean circulation. Modifying an isopycnal coordinate general circulation model for use in sub-ice shelf cavities, we found that the abrupt change in water column thickness at an ice shelf front does not form a strong barrier to buoyancy-driven circulation across the front. Outflow along the ice shelf base, driven by melting of the thickest ice, is balanced by deep inflow. Substantial effort was focused on the Filchner-Ronne cavity, where other models have been applied and time-series records are available from instruments suspended beneath the ice. A model comparison indicated that observed changes in the production of High Salinity Shelf Water could have a major impact on circulation within the cavity. This water propagates into the cavity with an asymmetric seasonal signal that has similar phasing and shape in the model and observations, and can be related to winter production at the sea surface. Even remote parts of the sub-ice shelf cavity are impacted by external forcing on sub-annual time scales. This shows that cavity circulations and products, and therefore cavity shape, will respond to interannual variability in sea ice production and longer-term climate change. The isopycnal model gives generally lower net melt rates than have been obtained from other models and oceanographic data, perhaps due to its boundary layer formulation, or the lack of tidal forcing. Work continues on a manuscript describing the Ross cavity results.

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

2015-01-01

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

The North American winter 'dipole' and extremes activity: A CMIP5 assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Shih-Yu Simon; Huang, Wan -Ru; Yoon, Jin -Ho

The 2013-2014 winter in North American brought intense drought in the West and severe cold in the East. The circulation anomalies were characterized as a dipole: an amplified upper-level ridge over the West Coast and a deepened trough over the central-eastern United States. A previous study using a single model has linked the dipole to the El Nino precursor and found that this link has strengthened in recent years. Here, 17 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are used to examine the dipole activity. As a result, most models capture the dipole and its association with Elmore » Nino precursor and project this association to strengthen.« less

The North American winter 'dipole' and extremes activity: A CMIP5 assessment

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shih-Yu Simon; Huang, Wan -Ru; Yoon, Jin -Ho

2015-02-13

The 2013-2014 winter in North American brought intense drought in the West and severe cold in the East. The circulation anomalies were characterized as a dipole: an amplified upper-level ridge over the West Coast and a deepened trough over the central-eastern United States. A previous study using a single model has linked the dipole to the El Nino precursor and found that this link has strengthened in recent years. Here, 17 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are used to examine the dipole activity. As a result, most models capture the dipole and its association with Elmore » Nino precursor and project this association to strengthen.« less

Kansas State University Libraries' OCR Labeling Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thierer, Joyce; Bower, Merry

This publication describes the planning and implementation of an optical character recognition (OCR) labeling project, the first stage of Kansas State University (KSU) Libraries' program of conversion from a manual to an automated circulation system. It is noted that a telephone survey of libraries with automated circulation systems and…

Arctic Ocean Pathways in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, Yevgeny; van Gennip, Simon J.; Kelly, Stephen J.; Popova, Ekaterina E.; Yool, Andrew

2017-04-01

In the last three decades, changes in the Arctic environment have been occurring at an increasing rate. The opening up of large areas of previously sea ice-covered ocean affects the marine environment with potential impacts on Arctic ecosystems, including through changes in Arctic access, industries and societies. Changes to sea ice and surface winds result in large-scale shifts in ocean circulation and oceanic pathways. This study presents a high-resolution analysis of the projected ocean circulation and pathways of the Arctic water masses across the 21st century. The analysis is based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the ocean general circulation model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) at the 1/4-degree horizontal resolution. The atmospheric forcing is from HadGEM2-ES model output from IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) simulations performed for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), and follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. During the 21st century the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increased by in excess of 4 deg. C. Annual mean Arctic sea ice thickness drops to less than 0.5m, and the Arctic Ocean is ice-free in summer from the mid-century. We use an off-line tracer technique to investigate Arctic pathways of the Atlantic and Pacific waters (AW and PW respectively) under this future climate. The AW tracers have been released in the eastern Fram Strait and in the western Barents Sea, whereas the PW tracer has been seeded in the Bering Strait. In the second half of the century the upper 1000 m ocean circulation shows a reduction in the eastward AW flow along the continental slopes towards the Makarov and Canada basins and a deviation of the PW flow away from the Beaufort Sea towards the Siberian coast. Strengthening of Arctic boundary current and intensification of the cyclonic gyre in the Nansen basin of the Arctic Ocean is accompanied by weakening of the current and an anti-cyclonic gyre spin-up in the Makarov Basin. This presents a shift of the Arctic circulation "dipole" and of the Transpolar Drift, with the consequence that the PW flow towards Fram Strait is significantly reduced by the end of the century, weakening the Pacific-Atlantic connection via the Arctic Ocean, and reducing the Arctic freshwater outflow into the North Atlantic. Examination of the simulations suggests that these circulation changes are primarily due to the shift in the wind.

Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ananichheva, Maria; Arendt, Anthony; Hagen, Jon-Ove; Hock, Regine; Josberger, Edward G.; Moore, R. Dan; Pfeffer, William Tad; Wolken, Gabriel J.

2011-01-01

Projections of future rates of mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic focus primarily on projections of changes in the surface mass balance. Current models are not yet capable of making realistic forecasts of changes in losses by calving. Surface mass balance models are forced with downscaled output from climate models driven by forcing scenarios that make assumptions about the future rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, mass loss projections vary considerably, depending on the forcing scenario used and the climate model from which climate projections are derived. A new study in which a surface mass balance model is driven by output from ten general circulation models (GCMs) forced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B emissions scenario yields estimates of total mass loss of between 51 and 136 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) (or 13% to 36% of current glacier volume) by 2100. This implies that there will still be substantial glacier mass in the Arctic in 2100 and that Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps will continue to influence global sea-level change well into the 22nd century.

Effects of climate change on forest insect and disease outbreaks

Treesearch

David W. Williams; Robert P. Long; Philip M. Wargo; Andrew M. Liebhold

2000-01-01

General circulation models (GCMs) predict dramatic future changes in climate for the northeastern and north central United States under doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) levels (Hansen et al., 1984; Manabe and Wetherald, 1987; Wilson and Mitchell, 1987; Cubasch and Cess, 1990; Mitchell et al., 1990). January temperatures are projected to rise as much...

Drought enhances symbiotic dinitrogen fixation and competitive ability of a temperate forest tree

Treesearch

Nina Wurzburger; Chelcy Ford Miniat

2013-01-01

General circulation models project more intense and frequent droughts over the next century, but many questions remain about how terrestrial ecosystems will respond. Of particular importance, is to understand how drought will alter the species composition of regenerating temperate forests wherein symbiotic dinitrogen (N2)- fixing plants play a...

Mass Balance of Multiyear Sea Ice in the Southern Beaufort Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

model of MY ice circulation, which is shown in Figure 1. In this model , we consider the Beaufort Sea to consist of four zones defined by mean drift...Arctic Regional Climate Model Simulation Project 3 International Arctic Buoy Program 4 Sea ice Experiment - Dynamic Nature of the Arctic 5Cold...2 Table 2: Datasets compiled to date Geophysical data type Source Time period acquired Buoy tracks IABP 12 hrly position data 1978-2012 Ice

Influence of projected snow and sea-ice changes on future climate in heavy snowfall region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumura, S.; Sato, T.

2011-12-01

Snow/ice albedo and cloud feedbacks are critical for climate change projection in cryosphere regions. However, future snow and sea-ice distributions are significantly different in each GCM. Thus, surface albedo in cryosphere regions is one of the causes of the uncertainty for climate change projection. Northern Japan is one of the heaviest snowfall regions in the world. In particular, Hokkaido is bounded on the north by the Okhotsk Sea, where is the southernmost ocean in the Northern Hemisphere that is covered with sea ice during winter. Wintertime climate around Hokkaido is highly sensitive to fluctuations in snow and sea-ice. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of global warming on future climate around Hokkaido, using the Pseudo-Global-Warming method (PGW) by a regional climate model. The boundary conditions of the PGW run were obtained by adding the difference between the future (2090s) and past (1990s) climates simulated by coupled general circulation model (MIROC3.2 medres), which is from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset, into the 6-hourly NCEP reanalysis (R-2) and daily OISST data in the past climate (CTL) run. The PGW experiments show that snow depth significantly decreases over mountainous areas and snow cover mainly decreases over plain areas, contributing to higher surface warming due to the decreased snow albedo. Despite the snow reductions, precipitation mainly increases over the mountainous areas because of enhanced water vapor content. However, precipitation decreases over the Japan Sea and the coastal areas, indicating the weakening of a convergent cloud band, which is formed by convergence between cold northwesteries from the Eurasian continent and anticyclonic circulation over the Okhotsk Sea. These results suggest that Okhotsk sea-ice decline may change the atmospheric circulation and the resulting effect on cloud formation, resulting in changes in winter snow or precipitation. We will also examine another CMIP3 model (MRI-CGCM2.3.2), which sensitivity of surface albedo to surface air temperature is the lowest in the CMIP3 models.

Atmospheric, Climatic, and Environmental Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broecker, Wallace S.; Gornitz, Vivien M.

1994-01-01

The climate and atmospheric modeling project involves analysis of basic climate processes, with special emphasis on studies of the atmospheric CO2 and H2O source/sink budgets and studies of the climatic role Of CO2, trace gases and aerosols. These studies are carried out, based in part on use of simplified climate models and climate process models developed at GISS. The principal models currently employed are a variable resolution 3-D general circulation model (GCM), and an associated "tracer" model which simulates the advection of trace constituents using the winds generated by the GCM.

Absolute wind measurements in the lower thermosphere of Venus using infrared heterodyne spectroscopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, Jeffrey J.

1990-01-01

The first absolute wind velocities above the Venusian cloud-tops were obtained using NASA/Goddard infrared heterodyne spectrometers at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) and the McMath Solar Telescope. Beam-integrated Doppler displacements in the non-thermal emission core of (12)C(16)O2 10.33 micron R(8) sampled the line of sight projection of the lower thermospheric wind field (100 to 120 km). A field-usable Lamb-dip laser stabilization system, developed for spectrometer absolute frequency calibration to less than + or - 0.1 MHz, allowed S/N-limited line of sight velocity resolution at the 1 m/s level. The spectrometer's diffraction-limited beam (1.7 arc-second HPBW at McMath, 0.9 arc-second HPBW at IRTF), and 1 to 2 arc-second seeing, provided the spatial resolution necessary for circulation model discrimination. Qualitative analysis of beam-integrated winds provided definitive evidence of a dominant subsolar-antisolar circulation in the lower thermosphere. Beam-integrated winds were modelled with a 100x100 grid over the beam, incorporating beam spatial rolloff and across-the-beam gradients in non-thermal emission intensity, line of sight projection geometry, and horizontal wind velocity. Horizontal wind velocity was derived from a 2-parameter model wind field comprised of subsolar-antisolar and zonal components. Best-fit models indicated a dominant subsolar-antisolar flow with 120 m/s cross-terminator winds and a retrograde zonal component with a 25 m/s equatorial velocity. A review of all dynamical indicators above the cloud-tops allowed development of an integrated and self-consistent picture of circulation in the 70 to 200 km range.

North Atlantic deep water formation and AMOC in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heuzé, Céline

2017-07-01

Deep water formation in climate models is indicative of their ability to simulate future ocean circulation, carbon and heat uptake, and sea level rise. Present-day temperature, salinity, sea ice concentration and ocean transport in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas from 23 CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) models are compared with observations to assess the biases, causes and consequences of North Atlantic deep convection in models. The majority of models convect too deep, over too large an area, too often and too far south. Deep convection occurs at the sea ice edge and is most realistic in models with accurate sea ice extent, mostly those using the CICE model. Half of the models convect in response to local cooling or salinification of the surface waters; only a third have a dynamic relationship between freshwater coming from the Arctic and deep convection. The models with the most intense deep convection have the warmest deep waters, due to a redistribution of heat through the water column. For the majority of models, the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is explained by the volumes of deep water produced in the subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas up to 2 years before. In turn, models with the strongest AMOC have the largest heat export to the Arctic. Understanding the dynamical drivers of deep convection and AMOC in models is hence key to realistically forecasting Arctic oceanic warming and its consequences for the global ocean circulation, cryosphere and marine life.

Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

The South Carolina Coastal Erosion Study: Integrated Circulation and Sediment Transport Studies. A Project Overview.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voulgaris, G.; Warner, J. C.; Work, P. A.; Hanes, D. M.; Haas, K. A.

2004-12-01

The South Carolina Coastal Erosion Study (SCCES) is a cooperative research program funded by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program and managed by the South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium. The main objective of the study is to understand the factors and processes that control coastal sediment movement along the northern part of the South Carolina coast while at the same time advance our basic understanding of circulation, wave propagation and sediment transport processes. Earlier geological framework studies carried out by the same program provided detailed data on bathymetry, bottom sediment thickness and grain size distribution. They identified an extensive (10km long, 2km wide) sand body deposit located in the inner shelf that has potential use for beach nourishment. The main objectives are to: (1) identify the role of wind-driven circulation in controlling regional sediment distribution on the SC shelf; (2) examine the hypothesis that the shoal is of the "fair-weather type" with bedload being the dominant sediment transport mode and the tidally-averaged flow being at different directions at the two flanks of the shoal; (3) investigate the possibility that the sediment source for the shoal is derived from the nearshore as the result of the convergence of the longshore sediment transport; and finally, (4) quantify the control that the shoal exerts on the nearshore conditions through changes on the wave energy propagation characteristics. Field measurements and numerical modeling techniques are utilized in this project. Two deployments of oceanographic and sediment transport systems took place for a period of 6 months (October 2003 to April 2004) measuring wind forcing, vertical distribution of currents, stratification, and wave spectral characteristics. Further, bed-flow interactions were measured at two locations, with instrumented tripods equipped with pairs of ADVs for measuring turbulence, PC-ADPs for measuring vertical current profiles in the near bed and OBS and ABS for measuring suspended sediment concentrations. The numerical modeling effort utilizes ROMS for 3-D coastal circulation, SWAN for wave propagation on the inner shelf, and SHORECIRC for circulation in the nearshore. As part of the nearshore component of this project a focused short-term surf zone experiment was also carried out.

Extreme heat event projections for a coastal megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, L. E.; Gonzalez, J.

2017-12-01

As summers become warmer, extreme heat events are expected to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. Large urban centers may affect these projections by introducing feedbacks between the atmosphere and the built environment through processes involving anthropogenic heat, wind modification, radiation blocking, and others. General circulation models are often run with spatial resolutions in the order of 100 km, limiting their skill at resolving local scale processes and highly spatially varying features such as cities' heterogeneous landscape and mountain topography. This study employs climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model coupled with a modified multi-layer urban canopy and building energy model to downscale CESM1 at 1 km horizontal resolution across three time slices (2006-2010, 2075-2079, and 2095-2099) and two projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). New York City Metropolitan area, with a population of over 20 million and a complex urban canopy, is used as a case study. The urban canopy model of WRF was modified to include a drag coefficient as a function of the building plant area fraction and the introduction of evaporative cooling systems at building roofs to reject the anthropogenic heat from the buildings, with urban canopy parameters computed from the New York City Property Land-Use Tax-lot Output (PLUTO). Model performance is evaluated against the input model and historical records from airport stations, showing improvement in the statistical characteristics in the downscaled model output. Projection results are presented as spatially distributed anomalies in heat wave frequency, duration, and maximum intensity from the 2006-2010 benchmark period. Results show that local sea-breeze circulations mitigate heat wave impacts, following a positive gradient with increasing distance from the coastline. However, end of century RCP 8.5 projections show the possibility of reversal of this pattern, sea surface temperatures increase and reduce the sea-land temperature gradient, thus reducing the sea-breeze magnitude. Impacts to human health and buildings energy demand are explored for future climate scenarios as key examples of anticipated societal consequences.

A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-01-14

The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth systemmore » models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.« less

Analysis of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation and its Relation to Cloud Radiative Forcing Using TRMM Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, David A.; Fowler, Laura D.; Lin, Xin

1998-01-01

In order to improve our understanding of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and the hydrological cycle simulated in the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we focused our research on the analysis of the diurnal cycle of precipitation, top-of-the-atmosphere and surface radiation budgets, and cloudiness using 10-year long Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Comparisons the simulated diurnal cycle were made against the diurnal cycle of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) radiation budget and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud products. This report summarizes our major findings over the Amazon Basin.

Hydrographic biases in global coupled climate models and their relation to the meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plancherel, Yves

2015-01-01

Comparison of the volumetric θ/S distribution of models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) indicates that these models differ widely in their ability to represent the thermohaline properties of water masses. Relationships between features of the quasi-equilibrium hydrographic mean state of these models and aspects of their overturning circulations are investigated. This is achieved quantitatively with the help of seven diagnostic hydrographic stations. These few stations were specifically selected to provide a minimalist schematic of the global water mass system. Relationships between hydrographic conditions in the North Atlantic measured with a subset of these stations suggest that hydrographic properties in the subpolar North Atlantic are set by the circulation field of each model, pointing towards deficiencies in the models ability to resolve the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current system as a major limitation. Since diapycnal mixing and viscosity parameterizations differ across CMIP3 models and exert a strong control on the overturning, it is likely that these architectural differences ultimately explain the main across-model differences in overturning circulation, temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic. The analysis of properties across the quasi-equilibrium states of the CMIP3 models agrees with previously reported relationships between meridional steric height gradients or horizontal density contrasts at depth and the strength of the deep water cell. Robust relationships are also found in the Southern Ocean linking measures of vertical stratification with the strength of the abyssal circulations across the CMIP3 models. Consistent correlations between aspects of the quasi-equilibrium hydrography in the Southern Ocean and the sensitivity of the abyssal cell to increasing radiative forcing by 2100 were found. Using these relations in conjunction with modern hydrographic observations to interpolate the fate of the abyssal cell suggests that the Southern abyssal cell may decrease by roughly 20 % by the end of the century. Similar systematic relationships between the quasi-equilibrium hydrographic states of the models and the sensitivity of their Atlantic deep water cell could not be found.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tung, K. K.; Yang, H.

1994-01-01

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of the extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 2: A simple mechanistic model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tung, K.K.; Yang, H.

1994-10-01

Although the phenomenon of equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation is relatively well understood, the problem of how the equatorially confined quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wave forcing can induce a signal in the extratropics of comparable or larger magnitude remains unsolved. A simple mechanistic model is constructed to provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the phenomenon of extratropical QBO is mainly caused by an anomalous seasonal circulation induced by an anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux divergence. The anomaly in E-P flux divergence may be caused in turn by the relative poleward and downward shift of the region of irreversible mixing (breaking) of themore » extratropical planetary waves during the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO as compared to its westerly phase. The hemispheric nature of the anomaly wave forcing in solstice seasons (viz., no wave breaking in the summer hemisphere) induces a global circulation anomaly that projects predominantly into the first few zonal Hough modes of Plumb. Such a global QBO circulation pattern, although difficult to measure directly, is reflected in the distribution of stratospheric tracers transported by it. Our model produces a global pattern of QBO anomaly in column ozone that appears to account for much of the unfiltered interannual variability in the column ozone observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument aboard the Nimbus satellite. Furthermore, the model produces the characteristic spectrum of the observation with peaks at periods of 20 and 30 months.« less

Evaluation of major heat waves' mechanisms in EURO-CORDEX RCMs over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, Eva

2018-06-01

The main aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate major heat waves in Central Europe and their associated meteorological factors. Three reference major heat waves (1994, 2006, and 2015) were identified in the E-OBS gridded data set, based on their temperature characteristics, length and spatial extent. Atmospheric circulation, precipitation, net shortwave radiation, and evaporative fraction anomalies during these events were assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The analogous major heat waves and their links to the aforementioned factors were analysed in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs driven by various global climate models in the 1970-2016 period. All three reference major heat waves were associated with favourable circulation conditions, precipitation deficit, reduced evaporative fraction and increased net shortwave radiation. This joint contribution of large-scale circulation and land-atmosphere interactions is simulated with difficulties in majority of the RCMs, which affects the magnitude of modelled major heat waves. In some cases, the seemingly good reproduction of major heat waves' magnitude is erroneously achieved through extremely favourable circulation conditions compensated by a substantial surplus of soil moisture or vice versa. These findings point to different driving mechanisms of major heat waves in some RCMs compared to observations, which should be taken into account when analysing and interpreting future projections of these events.

Automated Circulation Systems in Libraries Serving the Blind and Physically Handicapped: A Reference Guide for Planning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wanger, Judith; And Others

Designed to facilitate communications in future automation projects between library and data processing personnel, especially those projects involving the use of automated systems in the service of disabled patrons, this guide identifies and describes a master set of major circulation system requirements and design considerations, and illustrates…

Middle Atmosphere of the Southern Hemisphere (MASH) Global meteor observations system (GLOBMET) Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements (SSIM) Global Observations and Studies of Stratospheric Aerosols (GOSSA): Progress with the MASH project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneill, A.

1989-01-01

The aim of the MASH project is to study the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the Southern Hemisphere, emphasizing inter-hemispheric differences. Both observational data and data from simulations with numerical models are being used. It is intended that MASH will be complemented by parallel studies on the transport and photochemistry of trace species in the Southern Hemisphere. Impetus for such studies has come from the unexpected finding of a springtime ozone hole over Antarctica. A summary of recent progress with the MASH project is given. Data from polar orbiting satellites are used to discuss the large scale circulation found in the Southern Hemisphere at extratropical latitudes. Comparisons are made with that of the Northern Hemisphere. Particular attention is paid to the springtime final warming, the most spectacular large scale phenomenon in the statosphere of the Southern Hemisphere. The circulation before and after this event has to be taken into account in theories for the formation and subsequent disappearance of the ozone hole.

A combined mean dynamic topography model - DTU17cMDT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, P.; Andersen, O. B.; Nielsen, K.; Maximenko, N. A.

2017-12-01

Within the ESA supported Optimal Geoid for Modelling Ocean Circulation (OGMOC) project a new geoid model have been derived. It is based on the GOCO05C setup though the newer DTU15GRA altimetric surface gravity has been used in the combination. Subsequently the model has been augmented using the EIGEN-6C4 coefficients to d/o 2160. Compared to the DTU13MSS, the DTU15MSS has been derived by including re-tracked CRYOSAT-2 altimetry also, hence, increasing its resolution. Also, some issues in the Polar regions have been solved. The new DTU17MDT has been derived using this new geoid model and the DTU15MSS mean sea surface. Compared to other geoid models the new OGMOC geoid model has been optimized to avoid striations and orange skin like features. The filtering was re-evaluated by adjusting the quasi-gaussian filter width to optimize the fit to drifter velocities. The results show that the new MDT improves the resolution of the details of the ocean circulation. Subsequently, the drifter velocities were integrated to enhance the resolution of the MDT. As a contribution to the ESA supported GOCE++ project DYCOT a special concern was devoted to the coastal areas to optimize the extrapolation towards the coast and to integrate mean sea levels at tide gauges into that process. The presentation will focus on the coastal zone when assessing the methodology, the data and the final model DTU17cMDT.

Ocean-atmosphere relationships from synoptic scale to local scale in South San Francisco Bay, with implications to flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, Silicon Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, W. B.; Costa-Cabral, M. C.; Bromirski, P. D.; Miller, N. L.; Coats, R. N.; Loewenstein, M.; Roy, S. B.; MacWilliams, M.

2012-12-01

This work evaluates the implications to flooding risk at the low-lying NASA Ames Research Center in South San Francisco Bay under historical and projected climate and sea level rise. Atmospheric circulation patterns over the Pacific Ocean, influenced by ENSO and PDO, can result in extended periods of higher mean coastal sea level in California. Simultaneously they originate a larger number of storms that make landfall and have higher mean intensity. These storms generate barometrically-induced high water anomalies, and winds that are sometimes capable of producing large coastal waves. Storm surges that propagate from the coast into the estuary and South Bay, and locally-generated waves, may compromise the discharge capacity of stream channels. These conditions also typically generate high intensity rainfall, and the reduced channel capacity may result in fluvial flooding. Such atmospheric circulation patterns may persist for many months, during which California experiences more precipitation events of longer mean duration and higher intensity, leading to large precipitation totals that saturate soils and may exceed the storage capacity of stormwater retention ponds. Future scenarios of sea level rise, that may surpass a meter in this century according to the projections recently published by the National Research Council for states of CA, OR and WA, and projected atmospheric circulation changes associated with anthropogenic climate change, may amplify these risks. We evaluate the impacts of these changes on NASA's Ames Research Center through four areas of study: (i) wetland accretion and evolution as mean sea level rises, with implications to the Bay's response to the sea level rise and storm surges, (ii) hydrodynamic modeling to simulate the propagation of tidal height and storm surges in the Bay and the influence of local winds on wave height, (iii) evaluation of historical data and future climate projections to identify extreme precipitation events, and (iv) regional climate models to identify moisture source areas and evaluate the role of moisture flux on projected California precipitation.;

Seasonal Water Transport in the Atmosphere of Mars: Applications of a Mars General Circulation Model Using Mars Global Surveyor Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1999-01-01

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. We present below a summary of progress made during the duration of this JRI. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate seasonal water vapor transport in the atmosphere of Mars and its effects on the planet's present climate. To this end, the primary task has been to adapt a new dynamical processor for the adiabatic tendencies of the atmospheric circulation into the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Using identical boundary and initial conditions, several comparative tests between the new and old MGCMs have been performed and the nature of the simulated circulations have been diagnosed. With confidence that the updated version of the Ames MGCM produces quite similar mean and eddy circulation statistics, the new climate model is well poised as a tool to pursue fundamental questions related to the spatial and seasonal variations of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, and to explore exchanges of water with non-atmospheric reservoirs and transport within its atmosphere. In particular, the role of surface sources and sinks can be explored, the range of water-vapor saturation altitudes can be investigated, and plausible precipitation mechanisms can be studied, for a range of atmospheric dust loadings. Such future investigations can contribute to a comprehensive study of surface inventories, exchange mechanisms, and the relative importance of atmospheric transport Mars' water cycle. A listing of presentations made and manuscripts submitted during the course of this project is provided.

Seasonal Water Transport in the Atmosphere of Mars: Applications of a Mars General Circulation Model Using Mars Global Surveyor Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1999-01-01

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. We present below a summary of progress made during the duration of this JRI. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate seasonal water vapor transport in the atmosphere of Mars and its effects on the planet's present climate. To this end, the primary task has been to adapt a new dynamical processor for the adiabatic tendencies of the atmospheric circulation into the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Using identical boundary and initial conditions, several comparative tests between the new and old MGCMs have been performed and the nature of the simulated circulations have been diagnosed. With confidence that the updated version of the Ames MGCM produces quite similar mean and eddy circulation statistics, the new climate model is well poised as a tool to pursue fundamental questions related to the spatial and seasonal variations of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, and to explore exchanges of water with non-atmospheric reservoirs and transport within its atmosphere. In particular, the role of surface sources and sinks can be explored, the range of water-vapor saturation altitudes can be investigated, and plausible precipitation mechanisms can be studied, for a range of atmospheric dust loadings, such future investigations can contribute to a comprehensive study of surface inventories, exchange mechanisms, and the relative importance of atmospheric transport Mars' water cycle. A listing of presentations made and manuscripts submitted during the course of this project is provided.

Nd isotopic structure of the Pacific Ocean 70-30 Ma and numerical evidence for vigorous ocean circulation and ocean heat transport in a greenhouse world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Deborah J.; Korty, Robert; Huber, Matthew; Schubert, Jessica A.; Haines, Brian

2014-05-01

The oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is a crucial component of the climate system, impacting heat and nutrient transport, and global carbon cycling. Past greenhouse climate intervals present a paradox because their weak equator-to-pole temperature gradients imply a weaker MOC, yet increased poleward oceanic heat transport appears to be required to maintain these weak gradients. To investigate the mode of MOC that operated during the early Cenozoic, we compare new Nd isotope data with Nd tracer-enabled numerical ocean circulation and coupled climate model simulations. Assimilation of new Nd isotope data from South Pacific Deep Sea Drilling Project and Ocean Drilling Program Sites 323, 463, 596, 865, and 869 with previously published data confirm the hypothesized MOC characterized by vigorous sinking in the South and North Pacific 70 to 30 Ma. Compilation of all Pacific Nd isotope data indicates vigorous, distinct, and separate overturning circulations in each basin until 40 Ma. Simulations consistently reproduce South Pacific and North Pacific deep convection over a broad range of conditions, but cases using strong deep ocean vertical mixing produced the best data-model match. Strong mixing, potentially resulting from enhanced abyssal tidal dissipation, greater interaction of wind-driven internal wave activity with submarine plateaus, or higher than modern values of the geothermal heat flux enable models to achieve enhanced MOC circulation rates with resulting Nd isotope distributions consistent with the proxy data. The consequent poleward heat transport may resolve the paradox of warmer worlds with reduced temperature gradients.

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Not Unlike Modern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Z.-S.; Nisancioglu, K. H.; Chandler, M. A.; Haywood, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Ramstein, G.; Stepanek, C.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Chan, W. -L.; Sohl, L. E.

2013-01-01

In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), eight state-of-the-art coupled climate models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), northward ocean heat transport and ocean stratification simulated with these models. None of the models participating in PlioMIP simulates a strong mid-Pliocene AMOC as suggested by earlier proxy studies. Rather, there is no consistent increase in AMOC maximum among the PlioMIP models. The only consistent change in AMOC is a shoaling of the overturning cell in the Atlantic, and a reduced influence of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at depth in the basin. Furthermore, the simulated mid-Pliocene Atlantic northward heat transport is similar to the pre-industrial. These simulations demonstrate that the reconstructed high-latitude mid-Pliocene warming can not be explained as a direct response to an intensification of AMOC and concomitant increase in northward ocean heat transport by the Atlantic.

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P. J.; Rötter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L. A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Osborne, T. M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J. W.; Williams, J. R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.

Projection of seasonal summer precipitation over Indian sub-continent with a high-resolution AGCM based on the RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min

2018-05-01

Seasonal changes in precipitation characteristics over India were projected using a high-resolution (40-km) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) during the near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069), and far- (2070-2099) futures. For the model evaluation, we simulated an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-type present-day climate using AGCM with observed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice concentration. Based on this simulation, we have simulated the current climate from 1979 to 2009 and subsequently the future climate projection until 2100 using a CMCC-CM model from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Using various observed precipitation data, the validation of the simulated precipitation indicates that the AGCM well-captured the high and low rain belts and also onset and withdrawal of monsoon in the present-day climate simulation. Future projections were performed for the above-mentioned time slices (near-, mid-, and far futures). The model projected an increase in summer precipitation from 7 to 18% under RCP4.5 and from 14 to 18% under RCP8.5 from the mid- to far futures. Projected summer precipitation from different time slices depicts an increase over northwest (NWI) and west-south peninsular India (SPI) and a reduction over northeast and north-central India. The model projected an eastward shift of monsoon trough around 2° longitude and expansion and intensification of Mascarene High and Tibetan High seems to be associated with projected precipitation. The model projected extreme precipitation events show an increase (20-50%) in rainy days over NWI and SPI. While a significant increase of about 20-50% is noticed in heavy rain events over SPI during the far future.

Radiative-convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison A.; Reed, Kevin A.; Satoh, Masaki; Stevens, Bjorn; Bony, Sandrine; Ohno, Tomoki

2018-03-01

RCEMIP, an intercomparison of multiple types of models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), is proposed. RCE is an idealization of the climate system in which there is a balance between radiative cooling of the atmosphere and heating by convection. The scientific objectives of RCEMIP are three-fold. First, clouds and climate sensitivity will be investigated in the RCE setting. This includes determining how cloud fraction changes with warming and the role of self-aggregation of convection in climate sensitivity. Second, RCEMIP will quantify the dependence of the degree of convective aggregation and tropical circulation regimes on temperature. Finally, by providing a common baseline, RCEMIP will allow the robustness of the RCE state across the spectrum of models to be assessed, which is essential for interpreting the results found regarding clouds, climate sensitivity, and aggregation, and more generally, determining which features of tropical climate a RCE framework is useful for. A novel aspect and major advantage of RCEMIP is the accessibility of the RCE framework to a variety of models, including cloud-resolving models, general circulation models, global cloud-resolving models, single-column models, and large-eddy simulation models.

Projected future wave climate in the NW Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas-Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.

2013-07-01

Projected future regional wave climate scenarios at a high temporal-spatial scale were obtained for the NW Mediterranean Sea, using five combinations of regional-global circulation models. Changes in wave variables were analyzed and related to the variations of the forcing wind projections, while also evaluating the evolution of the presence of the different types of sea states. To assess the significance of the changes produced, a bootstrap-based method was proposed, which accounts for the autocorrelation of data and correctly reproduces the extremes. For the mean climate, relative changes of Hs up to ±10% were obtained, whereas they were around ±20% for the extreme climate. In mean terms, variations of Hs are similar to those associated with wind speed but are enhanced/attenuated, respectively, when fetch conditions are favorable/unfavorable. In general, most notable alterations are not in the Hs magnitude but rather in its direction. In this regard, during the winter season, it is interesting to note that the significant deviations between the results derived from the two global circulation models are larger than those between regional models. ECHAM5 simulated an enhanced west wind flow that is translated into more frequent W-NW waves, whereas the HadCM3Q3 global model gives rise to the east component, which contributes to a higher intensity and number of storms coming from such a direction and directly affects the wind-sea/swell distribution of coastal stretches that face east, like the Catalan coast. Different patterns of change were obtained during the summer when a common rise of NE-E waves was found.

Ocean Hydrodynamics Numerical Model in Curvilinear Coordinates for Simulating Circulation of the Global Ocean and its Separate Basins.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Anatoly; Diansky, Nikolay; Zalesny, Vladimir

2010-05-01

The original program complex is proposed for the ocean circulation sigma-model, developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). The complex can be used in various curvilinear orthogonal coordinate systems. In addition to ocean circulation model, the complex contains a sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics model, as well as the original system of the atmospheric forcing implementation on the basis of both prescribed meteodata and atmospheric model results. This complex can be used as the oceanic block of Earth climate model as well as for solving the scientific and practical problems concerning the World ocean and its separate oceans and seas. The developed program complex can be effectively used on parallel shared memory computational systems and on contemporary personal computers. On the base of the complex proposed the ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was developed. The model is realized in the curvilinear orthogonal coordinate system obtained by the conformal transformation of the standard geographical grid that allowed us to locate the system singularities outside the integration domain. The horizontal resolution of the OGCM is 1 degree on longitude, 0.5 degree on latitude, and it has 40 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model was integrated for 100 years starting from the Levitus January climatology using the realistic atmospheric annual cycle calculated on the base of CORE datasets. The experimental results showed us that the model adequately reproduces the basic characteristics of large-scale World Ocean dynamics, that is in good agreement with both observational data and results of the best climatic OGCMs. This OGCM is used as the oceanic component of the new version of climatic system model (CSM) developed in INM RAS. The latter is now ready for carrying out the new numerical experiments on climate and its change modelling according to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios in the scope of the CMIP-5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). On the base of the complex proposed the Pacific Ocean circulation eddy-resolving model was realized. The integration domain covers the Pacific from Equator to Bering Strait. The model horizontal resolution is 0.125 degree and it has 20 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model adequately reproduces circulation large-scale structure and its variability: Kuroshio meandering, ocean synoptic eddies, frontal zones, etc. Kuroshio high variability is shown. The distribution of contaminant was simulated that is admittedly wasted near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The results demonstrate contaminant distribution structure and provide us understanding of hydrological fields formation processes in the North-West Pacific.

ENSO-Related Precipitation and Its Statistical Relationship with the Walker Circulation Trend in CMIP5 AMIP Models

DOE PAGES

Yim, Bo; Yeh, Sang -Wook; Sohn, Byung -Ju

2016-01-29

Observational evidence shows that the Walker circulation (WC) in the tropical Pacific has strengthened in recent decades. In this study, we examine the WC trend for 1979–2005 and its relationship with the precipitation associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the sea surface temperature (SST)-constrained Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. All of the 29 models show a strengthening of the WC trend in response to an increase in the SST zonal gradient along the equator. Despite the same SST-constrained AMIP simulations, however, a large diversity ismore » found among the CMIP5 climate models in the magnitude of the WC trend. The relationship between the WC trend and precipitation anomalies (PRCPAs) associated with ENSO (ENSO-related PRCPAs) shows that the longitudinal position of the ENSO-related PRCPAs in the western tropical Pacific is closely related to the magnitude of the WC trend. Specifically, it is found that the strengthening of the WC trend is large (small) in the CMIP5 AMIP simulations in which the ENSO-related PRCPAs are located relatively westward (eastward) in the western tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the zonal shift of the ENSO-related precipitation in the western tropical Pacific, which is associated with the climatological mean precipitation in the tropical Pacific, could play an important role in modifying the WC trend in the CMIP5 climate models.« less

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

PubMed Central

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N.; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. PMID:24344283

On the glacial and inter-glacial thermohaline circulation and the associated transports of heat and freshwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarotta, M.; Falahat, S.; Brodeau, L.; Döös, K.

2014-03-01

The change of the thermohaline circulation (THC) between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ≈ 21 kyr ago) and the present day climate are explored using an Ocean General Circulation Model and stream functions projected in various coordinates. Compared to the present day period, the LGM circulation is reorganised in the Atlantic Ocean, in the Southern Ocean and particularly in the abyssal ocean, mainly due to the different haline stratification. Due to stronger wind stress, the LGM tropical circulation is more vigorous than under modern conditions. Consequently, the maximum tropical transport of heat is slightly larger during the LGM. In the North Atlantic basin, the large sea-ice extent during the LGM constrains the Gulf Stream to propagate in a more zonal direction, reducing the transport of heat towards high latitudes and reorganising the freshwater transport. The LGM circulation is represented as a large intrusion of saline Antarctic Bottom Water into the Northern Hemisphere basins. As a result, the North Atlantic Deep Water is shallower in the LGM simulation. The stream functions in latitude-salinity coordinates and thermohaline coordinates point out the different haline regimes between the glacial and interglacial period, as well as a LGM Conveyor Belt circulation largely driven by enhanced salinity contrast between the Atlantic and the Pacific basin. The thermohaline structure in the LGM simulation is the result of an abyssal circulation that lifts and deviates the Conveyor Belt cell from the area of maximum volumetric distribution, resulting in a ventilated upper layer above a deep stagnant layer, and an Atlantic circulation more isolated from the Pacific. An estimation of the turnover times reveal a deep circulation almost sluggish during the LGM, and a Conveyor Belt cell more vigorous due to the combination of stronger wind stress and shortened circulation route.

Regional influence of monsoons in the current and a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saini, Roop

Monsoon rainfall is of critical societal importance and monsoon circulations comprise an important part of global climate. Here, the thermodynamics of monsoon onsets in India and North America are considered both for observed data and for model projections with increasing greenhouse gases, in order to better understand the regional influence of monsoons in the current and warming climate. The regional influence of the monsoon onsets is analyzed in terms of the thermodynamic energy equation, regional circulation, and precipitation. For the Indian Monsoon, a Rossby-like response to the monsoon onset is clear in the observational data and is associated with horizontal temperature advection at midlevels as the westerlies intersect the warm temperature anomalies of the Rossby wave. The horizontal temperature advection is balanced by subsidence over areas of North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East, with an associated decrease in precipitation over those regions. The same processes that favor subsidence to the west of the monsoon also force rising motion over northern India and appear to be an important factor for the inland development of the monsoon. For the smaller spatial scales of the North American Monsoon, the descent to the northwest of the primary onset in Northwest Mexico is much more local and occurs directly in the path of monsoon development, apparently providing a self-limiting mechanism. For both monsoon onsets, simple Gill-Matsuno dynamics provide some qualitative understanding of the onset circulation, but do not reproduce the large spatial scales of the upper-level flow, which appear to be related to interactions with the mean westerly jets. The monsoon onsets for both regions were also analyzed for 5 models with available data from the CMIP5 project for runs with 1% per year CO2 increases. For the models considered, there is little consensus regarding changes to the strength of the monsoon onset in a warmer climate in terms of precipitation, although the upper level circulation is somewhat stronger in a warmer climate for both the monsoons, perhaps as a result of changes to the westerly jets. There is a large range in pattern and magnitude of the monsoon onsets between different models, even without greenhouse gas changes.

Regional Climate Change across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T. L.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2011-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. Preliminary results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0.

Predicting the Arctic Ocean Environment in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksenov, Yevgeny; Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Nurser, George

2015-04-01

Recent environmental changes in the Arctic have clearly demonstrated that climate change is faster and more vigorously in the Polar Regions than anywhere else. Significantly, change in the Arctic Ocean (AO) environment presents a variety of impacts, from ecological to social-economic and political. Mitigation of this change and adaptation to it requires detailed and robust environmental predictions. Here we present a detailed projection of ocean circulation and sea ice from the present until 2099, based on an eddy-permitting high-resolution global simulation of the NEMO ¼ degree ocean model. The model is forced at the surface with HadGEM2-ES atmosphere model output from the UK Met. Office IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The HadGEM2-ES simulations span 1860-2099 and are one of an ensemble of runs performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and IPCC AR5. Between 2000-2009 and 2090-2099 the AO experiences a significant warming, with sea surface temperature increasing on average by about 4° C, particularly in the Barents and Kara Seas, and in the Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay. By the end of the simulation, Arctic sea ice has an average annual thickness of less than 10 cm in the central AO, and less than 0.5 m in the East-Siberian Sea and Canadian Archipelago, and disappears entirely during the Arctic summer. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface waves leads to the Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In winter, sea ice persists until the 2030s; then it sharply declines and disappears from the Central Arctic Ocean by the end of the 21st century, with MIZ provinces remaining in winter along the Siberian, Alaskan coasts and in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Analysis of the AO circulation reveals evidence of (i) the reversal of the Arctic boundary currents in the Canadian Basin, from a weak cyclonic current in 2040-2049 to a strong anti-cyclonic current in 2090-2099, and (ii) increased anti-cyclonic surface ocean circulation in the eastern part of the AO, while the surface circulation in the western Arctic becomes more cyclonic. We relate the shift in the circulation to changes in the winds and reduction of sea ice cover, which modify momentum transfer from atmosphere to the ocean. Our simulation suggests a potentially complex picture of future AO change, and highlights the importance of high resolution modelling in forecasting it.

A Possible Cause for Recent Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, Mojib; Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major oceanic current system with widespread climate impacts. AMOC influences have been discussed among others with regard to Atlantic hurricane activity, regional sea level variability, and surface air temperature and precipitation changes on land areas adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. Most climate models project significant AMOC slowing during the 21st century, if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise unabatedly. Recently, a marked decadal decline in AMOC strength has been observed, which was followed by strongly reduced oceanic poleward heat transport and record low sea surface temperature in parts of the North Atlantic. Here, we provide evidence from observations, re-analyses and climate models that the AMOC decline was due to the combined action of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern, the two leading modes of North Atlantic atmospheric surface pressure variability, which prior to the decline both transitioned into their negative phases. This change in atmospheric circulation diminished oceanic heat loss over the Labrador Sea and forced ocean circulation changes lowering upper ocean salinity transport into that region. As a consequence, Labrador Sea deep convection weakened, which eventually slowed the AMOC. This study suggests a new mechanism for decadal AMOC variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability and climate change detection in the North Atlantic sector.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2011-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different numerics, algorithms, resolutions, physics models, and parameterizations. These simulations span the 20th century and provide forecasts for various carbon emissions scenarios in the 21st century. All the output from this panoply of models is made available to researchers on an archive maintained by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL. I have downloaded this data and completed the first steps toward a statisticalmore » analysis of these ensembles for the US Southwest. This constitutes the final report for a late start LDRD project. Complete analysis will be the subject of a forthcoming report.« less

Drivers of Arctic Ocean warming in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgard, Clara; Notz, Dirk

2017-05-01

We investigate changes in the Arctic Ocean energy budget simulated by 26 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 framework. Our goal is to understand whether the Arctic Ocean warming between 1961 and 2099 is primarily driven by changes in the net atmospheric surface flux or by changes in the meridional oceanic heat flux. We find that the simulated Arctic Ocean warming is driven by positive anomalies in the net atmospheric surface flux in 11 models, by positive anomalies in the meridional oceanic heat flux in 11 models, and by positive anomalies in both energy fluxes in four models. The different behaviors are mainly characterized by the different changes in meridional oceanic heat flux that lead to different changes in the turbulent heat loss to the atmosphere. The multimodel ensemble mean is hence not representative of a consensus across the models in Arctic climate projections.

Fracture Evolution Following a Hydraulic Stimulation within an EGS Reservoir

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mella, Michael

The objective of this project was to develop and demonstrate an approach for tracking the evolution of circulation immediately following a hydraulic stimulation in an EGS reservoir. Series of high-resolution tracer tests using conservative and thermally reactive tracers were designed at recently created EGS reservoirs in order to track changes in fluid flow parameters such as reservoir pore volume, flow capacity, and effective reservoir temperature over time. Data obtained from the project would be available for the calibration of reservoir models that could serve to predict EGS performance following a hydraulic stimulation.

Effects of Whitecaps on Satellite-Derived Ocean Color

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frouin, Robert

2000-01-01

During the 3.25 years of the project, various aspects of satellite ocean-color remote sensing were investigated, including effect of whitecaps on atmospheric correction, validity of aerosol models, and evaluation of ocean-color products. Algorithms to estimate pigment concentration and photo-synthetically active radiation (PAR) were developed, and studies of geophysical phenomena, such as the 1998 Asian Dust event, were performed. The influence of solar radiation absorption by phytoplankton on mixed layer dynamics, ocean circulation, and climate was also investigated. The project's results and findings are described.

Mayo Clinic Jacksonville electronic radiology practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, Richard L.; Berquist, Thomas H.; Rueger, Wolfgang

1996-05-01

We have begun a project to implement an Electronic (Filmless) Radiology Practice (ERP) at Mayo Clinic Jacksonville. This project is integrated with the implementation of a project (Automated Clinical Practice--ACP) to eliminate circulation and archival of the current paper Medical Record. The ERP will result in elimination of screen/film radiography and the transmittal of film throughout the institution by the end of 1996. In conjunction with the ACP, paper and film will not circulate within the clinic by the end of this year.

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.

PubMed

Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A

2017-04-28

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

Identifying misbehaving models using baseline climate variance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2011-06-01

The majority of projections made using general circulation models (GCMs) are conducted to help tease out the effects on a region, or on the climate system as a whole, of changing climate dynamics. Sun et al., however, used model runs from 20 different coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs to try to understand a different aspect of climate projections: how bias correction, model selection, and other statistical techniques might affect the estimated outcomes. As a case study, the authors focused on predicting the potential change in precipitation for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a 1-million- square- kilometer area in southeastern Australia that suffered a recent decade of drought that left many wondering about the potential impacts of climate change on this important agricultural region. The authors first compared the precipitation predictions made by the models with 107 years of observations, and they then made bias corrections to adjust the model projections to have the same statistical properties as the observations. They found that while the spread of the projected values was reduced, the average precipitation projection for the end of the 21st century barely changed. Further, the authors determined that interannual variations in precipitation for the MDB could be explained by random chance, where the precipitation in a given year was independent of that in previous years.

Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

PubMed Central

Garcia, Raquel A; Burgess, Neil D; Cabeza, Mar; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B

2012-01-01

Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub-Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17 general circulation models, we introduce a consensus methodology that combines co-varying models. Thus, we quantify and map the relative contribution to uncertainty of seven bioclimatic envelope models, three multi-model climate projections and three emissions scenarios, and explore the resulting variability in species turnover estimates. We show that bioclimatic envelope models contribute most to variability, particularly in projected novel climatic conditions over Sahelian and southern Saharan Africa. To summarize agreements among projections from the bioclimatic envelope models we compare five consensus methodologies, which generally increase or retain projection accuracy and provide consistent estimates of species turnover. Variability from emissions scenarios increases towards late-century and affects southern regions of high species turnover centred in arid Namibia. Twofold differences in median species turnover across the study area emerge among alternative climate projections and emissions scenarios. Our ensemble of projections underscores the potential bias when using a single algorithm or climate projection for Africa, and provides a cautious first approximation of the potential exposure of sub-Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological uncertainties and contextualize results.

Influence of high-resolution surface databases on the modeling of local atmospheric circulation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiva, L. M. S.; Bodstein, G. C. R.; Pimentel, L. C. G.

2014-08-01

Large-eddy simulations are performed using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) code at horizontal grid resolutions as fine as 300 m to assess the influence of detailed and updated surface databases on the modeling of local atmospheric circulation systems of urban areas with complex terrain. Applications to air pollution and wind energy are sought. These databases are comprised of 3 arc-sec topographic data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, 10 arc-sec vegetation-type data from the European Space Agency (ESA) GlobCover project, and 30 arc-sec leaf area index and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation data from the ESA GlobCarbon project. Simulations are carried out for the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro using six one-way nested-grid domains that allow the choice of distinct parametric models and vertical resolutions associated to each grid. ARPS is initialized using the Global Forecasting System with 0.5°-resolution data from the National Center of Environmental Prediction, which is also used every 3 h as lateral boundary condition. Topographic shading is turned on and two soil layers are used to compute the soil temperature and moisture budgets in all runs. Results for two simulated runs covering three periods of time are compared to surface and upper-air observational data to explore the dependence of the simulations on initial and boundary conditions, grid resolution, topographic and land-use databases. Our comparisons show overall good agreement between simulated and observational data, mainly for the potential temperature and the wind speed fields, and clearly indicate that the use of high-resolution databases improves significantly our ability to predict the local atmospheric circulation.

Where Did the Reference Desk Go? Transforming Staff and Space to Meet User Needs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bunnett, Brian; Boehme, Andrea; Hardin, Steve; Arvin, Shelley; Evans, Karen; Huey, Paula; LaBella, Carey

2016-01-01

A sharp decline in the number of reference queries prompted the library administration at Indiana State University to begin a project to combine the circulation, reference, and IT desks to reduce staffing at a new consolidated service point. All faculty and staff in the reference/instruction and circulation units participated in the project. The…

Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

2016-01-01

Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer’s field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over the long term. PMID:26784113

Near-Surface Dispersion and Circulation in the Marmara Sea (MARMARA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

NURC (P.I.s: Drs. S. Besiktepe and J. Chiggiato ) • The NRL Exchange Processes in Ocean Straits (EPOS) project to improve our understanding on the...View/AEGEAN_SEA ) PUBLICATIONS Chiggiato , J., S. Besiktepe, E. Jarosz, J. Book, R. Gerin, P.-M. Poulain and L. Torrisi (2010) Numerical modelling of...EGU2010-2697. Chiggiato , J., S. Besiktepe, E. Jarosz, J. Book, R. Gerin, P.-M. Poulain and L. Torrisi (2010) Numerical modelling of the surface

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

2014-01-01

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Long History of IAM Comparisons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2015-04-23

Correspondence to editor: We agree with the editors that the assumptions behind models of all types, including integrated assessment models (IAMs), should be as transparent as possible. The editors were in error, however, when they implied that the IAM community is just “now emulating the efforts of climate researchers by instigating their own model inter-comparison projects (MIPs).” In fact, model comparisons for integrated assessment and climate models followed a remarkably similar trajectory. Early General Circulation Model (GCM) comparison efforts, evolved to the first Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP), which was initiated in the early 1990s. Atmospheric models evolved to coupledmore » atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCMs) and results from the first Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP1) become available about a decade later. Results of first energy model comparison exercise, conducted under the auspices of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum, were published in 1977. A summary of the first comparison focused on climate change was published in 1993. As energy models were coupled to simple economic and climate models to form IAMs, the first comparison exercise for IAMs (EMF-14) was initiated in 1994, and IAM comparison exercises have been on-going since this time.« less

Scientific advances of the MyOcean projects underpinning the transition towards the Marine Copernicus service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseur, Pierre

2015-04-01

The MyOcean projects supported by the European Commission period have been developed during the 2008-2015 period to build an operational service of ocean physical state and ecosystem information to intermediate and downstream users in the areas of marine safety, marine resources, marine and coastal environment and weather, climate and seasonal forecasting. The "core" information provided to users is obtained through the combination of satellite and in situ observations, eddy-resolving modelling of the global ocean and regional european seas, biochemistry, ecosystem and sea-ice modelling, and data assimilation for global to basin scale circulation. A comprehensive R&D plan was established in 2010 to ensure the collection and provision of information of best possible quality for daily estimates of the ocean state (real-time), its short-term evolution, and its history over the past (reanalyses). A service validation methodology was further developed to ensure proper scientific evaluation and routine monitoring of the accuracy of MyOcean products. In this presentation, we will present an overview of the main scientific advances achieved in MyOcean using the NEMO modelling platform, ensemble-based assimilation schemes, coupled circulation-ecosystem, sea-ice assimilative models and probabilistic methodologies for ensemble validation. We will further highlight the key areas that will require additional innovation effort to support the Marine Copernicus service evolution.

Bathymetric Changes Shaped by Longshore Currents on a Natural Beach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, W. L.; Slinn, D.; Plant, N.

2004-12-01

The goal of the project is to simulate beach morphology on time scales of hours to days. Our approach is to develop finite difference solutions from a coupled modeling system consisting of existing nearshore circulation, wave, and sediment flux models. We initialize the model with bathymetry from a dense data set north of the pier at the Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC. We integrate the model system forward in time and compare the results of the hind-cast of the beach evolution with the field observations. The model domain extends 1000 meters in the alongshore direction and 500 meters in the cross-shore direction with 5 meter grid spacing. The bathymetry is interpolated and filtered from CRAB transects. A second-degree exponential smoothing method is used to return the cross-shore beach profile near the edges of the modeled domain back to the mean alongshore profile, because the circulation model implements periodic boundary conditions in the alongshore direction. The offshore wave height and direction are taken from the 8-meter bipod at the FRF and input to the wave-model, SWAN (Spectral Wave Nearshore), with a Gaussian-shaped frequency spectrum and a directional spreading of 5 degrees. A constant depth induced wave breaking parameter of 0.73 is used. The resulting calculated wave induced force per unit surface area (gradient of the radiation stress) output from SWAN is used to drive the currents in the circulation model. The circulation model is based on the free-surface non-linear shallow water equations and uses the fourth order compact scheme to calculate spatial derivatives and a third order Adams-Bashforth time discretization scheme. Free slip, symmetry boundary conditions are applied at both the shoreline and offshore boundaries. The time averaged sediment flux is calculated at each location after one hour of circulation. The sediment flux model is based on the approach of Bagnold and includes approximations for both bed-load and suspended load. The bathymetry is then updated by computing the divergence of the time averaged sediment fluxes. The process is then repeated using the updated bathymetry in both SWAN and the circulation model. The cycle continues for a simulation of 10 hours. The results of bathymetric change vary for different time-dependent wave conditions and initial bathymetric profiles. Typical results indicate that for wave heights on the order of one meter, shoreline advancement and sandbar evolution is observed on the order of tens of centimeters.

Radon measurements aboard the Kuiper Airborne Observatory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kritz, Mark A.; Rosner, Stefan W.

1995-01-01

We have carried out three (piggyback) radon-related projects aboard the KAO. The first, which was limited to upper tropospheric measurements while in level flight, revealed the systematic occurrence of unexpectedly high radon concentrations in this region of the atmosphere. The second project was an instrument development project, which led to the installation of an automatic radon measurement system aboard the NASA ER-2 High Altitude Research Aircraft. In the third, we installed a new system capable of collecting samples during the normal climb and descent of the KAO. The results obtained in these projects have resulted in significant contributions to our knowledge of atmospheric transport processes, and are currently playing a key role in the validation of global circulation and transport models.

A Canonical Repsonse of Precipitation Characteristics to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.; Kim, K.-M.

2013-01-01

In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to a warming climate. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7+/-2.4%/K1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5+/-0.6%/K), more light precipitation (+1.8+/-1.3%/K1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7+/-2.1%/K). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Our results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce a global adjustment in circulation and moisture availability manifested in basic changes in global precipitation characteristics, including increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

Hydrological impacts of climate change on the Tejo and Guadiana Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilsby, C. G.; Tellier, S. S.; Fowler, H. J.; Howels, T. R.

2007-05-01

A distributed daily rainfall runoff model is applied to the Tejo and Guadiana river basins in Spain and Portugal to simulate the effects of climate change on runoff production, river flows and water resource availability with results aggregated to the monthly level. The model is calibrated, validated and then used for a series of climate change impact assessments for the period 2070 2100. Future scenarios are derived from the HadRM3H regional climate model (RCM) using two techniques: firstly a bias-corrected RCM output, with monthly mean correction factors calculated from observed rainfall records; and, secondly, a circulation-pattern-based stochastic rainfall model. Major reductions in rainfall and streamflow are projected throughout the year; these results differ from those for previous studies where winter increases are projected. Despite uncertainties in the representation of heavily managed river systems, the projected impacts are serious and pose major threats to the maintenance of bipartite water treaties between Spain and Portugal and the supply of water to urban and rural regions of Portugal.

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

2016-05-01

Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution <2°) can more accurately simulate precipitation, most likely due to their ability to capture precipitation induced by topography. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s-2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The influence of the NASH on Kiremt-season precipitation becomes more evident in the future due to the offsetting effects of two other major circulation systems: the East African Low-level Jet (EALLJ) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). The high-resolution models project a strengthening of the EALLJ, but a weakening of the TEJ. Future changes in the EALLJ and TEJ will drive this precipitation system in opposite directions, leading to small or no net changes in precipitation in Ethiopia.

Surface circulation in the Strait of Gibraltar: a comparison study between HF radar and high resolution model data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto-Navarro, Javier; Lorente, Pablo; Álvarez-Fanjul, Enrique; Ruiz-Gil de la Serna, M. Isabel

2015-04-01

Surface currents from the HF radar system deployed by Puertos del Estado (PdE) at the Strait of Gibraltar and an operational high resolution configuration of the MIT global circulation model, implemented in the strait area in the frame of the SAMPA project, have been analyzed and compared in the period February 2013 - September 2014. The comparison have been carried out in the time and frequency domains, by statistical a geophysical (tide ellipses, wind forcing, EOF) methods. Results show good agreement between both current fields in the strait axis, with correlation around 0.6 (reaching 0.9 in the low frequency band). Higher discrepancies are found in the boundaries of the domain, due to the differences in the meridional components, likely related to the sparser and less accurate radar measurements in these areas. Rotary spectral analysis show a very good agreement between both systems, which is reflected in a very similar and realistic representation of the main tide constituents (M2, S2 and K1). The wind forced circulation pattern, of special interest in the mouth of the Bay of Algeciras, is also precisely represented by radar and model. Finally, the spatial patterns of the first four EOF modes of both fields are rather close, reinforcing the previous results. As conclusion, the analysis points out the proper representation of the surface circulation of the area performed by the PdE HF radar system and the SAMPA model. However, weak and strong points are found in both, stressing the importance of having two complementary tools in the area.

Fast I/O for Massively Parallel Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OKeefe, Matthew T.

1996-01-01

The two primary goals for this report were the design, contruction and modeling of parallel disk arrays for scientific visualization and animation, and a study of the IO requirements of highly parallel applications. In addition, further work in parallel display systems required to project and animate the very high-resolution frames resulting from our supercomputing simulations in ocean circulation and compressible gas dynamics.

Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate

Treesearch

Y. Liu; J.A. Stanturf; S.L. Goodrick

2009-01-01

The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070–2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and...

Comparative genetic responses to climate in the varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii: reforestation

Treesearch

Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Barry C. Jaquish; Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; Dennis G. Joyce; Laura P. Leites; J. Bradley St Clair; Javier Lopez-Upton

2014-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the climatic niche of the sub-specific varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii and on the adaptedness of their populations are considered from the viewpoint of reforestation. In using climate projections from an ensemble of 17 general circulation models targeting the decade surrounding 2060, our analyses suggest that a...

Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation.

PubMed

Caesar, L; Rahmstorf, S; Robinson, A; Feulner, G; Saba, V

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)-a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic-has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature 'fingerprint'-consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region-and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years.

General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

2008-12-01

The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

2-D Circulation Control Airfoil Benchmark Experiments Intended for CFD Code Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Englar, Robert J.; Jones, Gregory S.; Allan, Brian G.; Lin, Johb C.

2009-01-01

A current NASA Research Announcement (NRA) project being conducted by Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) personnel and NASA collaborators includes the development of Circulation Control (CC) blown airfoils to improve subsonic aircraft high-lift and cruise performance. The emphasis of this program is the development of CC active flow control concepts for both high-lift augmentation, drag control, and cruise efficiency. A collaboration in this project includes work by NASA research engineers, whereas CFD validation and flow physics experimental research are part of NASA s systematic approach to developing design and optimization tools for CC applications to fixed-wing aircraft. The design space for CESTOL type aircraft is focusing on geometries that depend on advanced flow control technologies that include Circulation Control aerodynamics. The ability to consistently predict advanced aircraft performance requires improvements in design tools to include these advanced concepts. Validation of these tools will be based on experimental methods applied to complex flows that go beyond conventional aircraft modeling techniques. This paper focuses on recent/ongoing benchmark high-lift experiments and CFD efforts intended to provide 2-D CFD validation data sets related to NASA s Cruise Efficient Short Take Off and Landing (CESTOL) study. Both the experimental data and related CFD predictions are discussed.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Influence on North Atlantic Sector Surface Air Temperature and its Predictability in the Kiel Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, M.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on the North Atlantic sector surface air temperature (SAT) in two multi-millennial control integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). One model version employs a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic, while the other does not. A clear influence of the AMOC on North Atlantic sector SAT only is simulated in the corrected model that depicts much reduced upper ocean salinity and temperature biases in comparison to the uncorrected model. Further, the model with much reduced biases depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector relative to the uncorrected model. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected model is due to a stronger and more variable AMOC and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SST and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

Laboratory Simulation of the Geothermal Heating Effects on Ocean Overturning Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, K. Q.; Wang, F.; Huang, S. D.; Zhou, S. Q.

2016-12-01

A large-scale circulation subject to an additional heat flux from the bottom is investigated laboratorially, motivated by understanding the geothermal heating effects on ocean circulation. Despite its idealization, our experiment suggests that the leading order effect of geothermal heating is to significantly enhance the abyssal overturning, which is in agreement with the findings in ocean circulation models. Our results also suggest that geothermal heating could not influence the poleward heat transport due to the strong stratification in the thermocline. It is revealed that the ratio of geothermal-flux-induced turbulent dissipation to the dissipation due to other energies is the key determining the dynamical importance of geothermal heating. This quantity explains why the impact of geothermal heating is sensitive to the deep stratification and the diapycnal mixing, in addition to the amount of geothermal flux. Moreover, this dissipation ratio may be used to understand results from different studies in a consistent way. This work is supported by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council under Grant No. CUHK1430115 and by the CUHK Research Committee through a Direct Grant (Project No. 3132740).

A zonally symmetric model for the monsoon-Hadley circulation with stochastic convective forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De La Chevrotière, Michèle; Khouider, Boualem

2017-02-01

Idealized models of reduced complexity are important tools to understand key processes underlying a complex system. In climate science in particular, they are important for helping the community improve our ability to predict the effect of climate change on the earth system. Climate models are large computer codes based on the discretization of the fluid dynamics equations on grids of horizontal resolution in the order of 100 km, whereas unresolved processes are handled by subgrid models. For instance, simple models are routinely used to help understand the interactions between small-scale processes due to atmospheric moist convection and large-scale circulation patterns. Here, a zonally symmetric model for the monsoon circulation is presented and solved numerically. The model is based on the Galerkin projection of the primitive equations of atmospheric synoptic dynamics onto the first modes of vertical structure to represent free tropospheric circulation and is coupled to a bulk atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) model. The model carries bulk equations for water vapor in both the free troposphere and the ABL, while the processes of convection and precipitation are represented through a stochastic model for clouds. The model equations are coupled through advective nonlinearities, and the resulting system is not conservative and not necessarily hyperbolic. This makes the design of a numerical method for the solution of this system particularly difficult. Here, we develop a numerical scheme based on the operator time-splitting strategy, which decomposes the system into three pieces: a conservative part and two purely advective parts, each of which is solved iteratively using an appropriate method. The conservative system is solved via a central scheme, which does not require hyperbolicity since it avoids the Riemann problem by design. One of the advective parts is a hyperbolic diagonal matrix, which is easily handled by classical methods for hyperbolic equations, while the other advective part is a nilpotent matrix, which is solved via the method of lines. Validation tests using a synthetic exact solution are presented, and formal second-order convergence under grid refinement is demonstrated. Moreover, the model is tested under realistic monsoon conditions, and the ability of the model to simulate key features of the monsoon circulation is illustrated in two distinct parameter regimes.

Multi-platform validation of a high-resolution model in the Western Mediterranean Sea: insight into spatial-temporal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, Eva; Mourre, Baptiste; Heslop, Emma; Juza, Mélanie; Escudier, Romain; Tintoré, Joaquín

2017-04-01

This study focuses on the validation of the high resolution Western Mediterranean Operational model (WMOP) developed at SOCIB, the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System. The Mediterranean Sea is often seen as a small scale ocean laboratory where energetic eddies, fronts and circulation features have important ecological consequences. The Medclic project is a program between "La Caixa" Foundation and SOCIB which aims at characterizing and forecasting the "oceanic weather" in the Western Mediterranean Sea, specifically investigating the interactions between the general circulation and mesoscale processes. We use a WMOP 2009-2015 free run hindcast simulation and available observational datasets (altimetry, moorings and gliders) to both assess the numerical simulation and investigate the ocean variability. WMOP has a 2-km spatial resolution and uses CMEMS Mediterranean products as initial and boundary conditions, with surface forcing from the high-resolution Spanish Meteorological Agency model HIRLAM. Different aspects of the spatial and temporal variability in the model are validated from local to regional and basin scales: (1) the principal axis of variability of the surface circulation using altimetry and moorings along the Iberian coast, (2) the inter-annual changes of the surface flows incorporating also glider data, (3) the propagation of mesoscale eddies formed in the Algerian sub-basin using altimetry, and (4) the statistical properties of eddies (number, rotation, size) applying an eddy tracker detection method in the Western Mediterranean Sea. With these key points evaluated in the model, EOF analysis of sea surface height maps are used to investigate spatial patterns of variability associated with eddies, gyres and the basis-scale circulation and so gain insight into the interconnections between sub-basins, as well as the interactions between physical processes at different scales.

Design Construction and Operation of a Supercritical Carbon Dioxide (sCO 2) Loop for Investigation of Dry Cooling and Natural Circulation Potential for Use in Advanced Small Modular Reactors Utilizing sCO 2 Power Conversion Cycles.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Middleton, Bobby D.; Rodriguez, Salvador B.; Carlson, Matthew David

This report outlines the work completed for a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project at Sandia National Laboratories from October 2012 through September 2015. An experimental supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) loop was designed, built, and o perated. The experimental work demonstrated that sCO 2 can be uti lized as the working fluid in an air - cooled, natural circulation configuration to transfer heat from a source to the ultimate heat sink, which is the surrounding ambient environment in most ca ses. The loop was also operated in an induction - heated, water - cooled configuration that allows formore » measurements of physical parameters that are difficult to isolate in the air - cooled configuration. Analysis included the development of two computational flu id dynamics models. Future work is anticipated to answer questions that were not covered in this project.« less

Natural and drought scenarios in an east central Amazon forest: Fidelity of the Community Land Model 3.5 with three biogeochemical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Zeng, Xubin; Christoffersen, Bradley J.; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Saleska, Scott R.; Brando, Paulo M.

2011-03-01

Recent development of general circulation models involves biogeochemical cycles: flows of carbon and other chemical species that circulate through the Earth system. Such models are valuable tools for future projections of climate, but still bear large uncertainties in the model simulations. One of the regions with especially high uncertainty is the Amazon forest where large-scale dieback associated with the changing climate is predicted by several models. In order to better understand the capability and weakness of global-scale land-biogeochemical models in simulating a tropical ecosystem under the present day as well as significantly drier climates, we analyzed the off-line simulations for an east central Amazon forest by the Community Land Model version 3.5 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and its three independent biogeochemical submodels (CASA', CN, and DGVM). Intense field measurements carried out under Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, including forest response to drought from a throughfall exclusion experiment, are utilized to evaluate the whole spectrum of biogeophysical and biogeochemical aspects of the models. Our analysis shows reasonable correspondence in momentum and energy turbulent fluxes, but it highlights three processes that are not in agreement with observations: (1) inconsistent seasonality in carbon fluxes, (2) biased biomass size and allocation, and (3) overestimation of vegetation stress to short-term drought but underestimation of biomass loss from long-term drought. Without resolving these issues the modeled feedbacks from the biosphere in future climate projections would be questionable. We suggest possible directions for model improvements and also emphasize the necessity of more studies using a variety of in situ data for both driving and evaluating land-biogeochemical models.

High resolution infrared datasets useful for validating stratospheric models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rinsland, Curtis P.

1992-01-01

An important objective of the High Speed Research Program (HSRP) is to support research in the atmospheric sciences that will improve the basic understanding of the circulation and chemistry of the stratosphere and lead to an interim assessment of the impact of a projected fleet of High Speed Civil Transports (HSCT's) on the stratosphere. As part of this work, critical comparisons between models and existing high quality measurements are planned. These comparisons will be used to test the reliability of current atmospheric chemistry models. Two suitable sets of high resolution infrared measurements are discussed.

3D Groundwater flow model at the Upper Rhine Graben scale to delineate preferential target areas for geothermal projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armandine Les Landes, Antoine; Guillon, Théophile; Peter-Borie, Mariane; Rachez, Xavier

2017-04-01

Any deep unconventional geothermal project remains risky because of the uncertainty regarding the presence of the geothermal resource at depth and the drilling costs increasing accordingly. That's why this resource must be located as precisely as possible to increase the chances of successful projects and their economic viability. To minimize the risk, as much information as possible should be gathered prior to any drilling. Usually, the position of the exploration wells of geothermal energy systems is chosen based on structural geology observations, geophysics measurements and geochemical analyses. Confronting these observations to results from additional disciplines should bring more objectivity in locating the region to explore and where to implant the geothermal system. The Upper Rhine Graben (URG) is a tectonically active rift system that corresponds to one branch of the European Cenozoic Rift System where the basin hosts a significant potential for geothermal energy. The large fault network inherited from a complex tectonic history and settled under the sedimentary deposits hosts fluid circulation patterns. Geothermal anomalies are strongly influenced by fluid circulations within permeable structures such as fault zones. In order to better predict the location of the geothermal resource, it is necessary to understand how it is influenced by heat transport mechanisms such as groundwater flow. The understanding of fluid circulation in hot fractured media at large scale can help in the identification of preferential zones at a finer scale where additional exploration can be carried out. Numerical simulations is a useful tool to deal with the issue of fluid circulations through large fault networks that enable the uplift of deep and hot fluids. Therefore, we build a numerical model to study groundwater flow at the URG scale (150 x 130km), which aims to delineate preferential zones. The numerical model is based on a hybrid method using a Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) and 3D elements to simulate groundwater flow in the 3D regional fault network and in sedimentary deposits, respectively. Firstly, the geometry of the 3D fracture network and its hydraulic connections with 3D elements (sedimentary cover) is built in accordance with the tectonic history and based on geological and geophysical evidences. Secondly, data from previous studies and site-specific geological knowledge provide information on the fault zones family sets and on respective hydraulic properties. Then, from the simulated 3D groundwater flow model and based on a particle tracking methodology, groundwater flow paths are constructed. The regional groundwater flow paths results are extracted and analysed to delineate preferential zones to explore at finer scale and so to define the potential positions of the exploration wells. This work is conducted in the framework of the IMAGE project (Integrated Methods for Advanced Geothermal Exploration, grant agreement No. 608553), which aims to develop new methods for better siting of exploitation wells.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

PubMed

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.;

Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi; Liu, Jian; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2014-01-01

We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model's performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The "warm land-cool ocean" favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced.

El Nino-like Teleconnection Increases California Precipitation in Response to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, R.

2017-12-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Nino teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Nino-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Numerical Modeling of Permeability Enhancement by Hydroshearing: the Case of Phase I Reservoir Creation at Fenton Hill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutqvist, J.; Rinaldi, A. P.

2017-12-01

The exploitation of a geothermal system is one of the most promising clean and almost inexhaustible forms of energy production. However, the exploitation of hot dry rock (HDR) reservoirs at depth requires circulation of a large amount of fluids. Indeed, the conceptual model of an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) requires that the circulation is enhanced by fluid injection. The pioneering experiments at Fenton Hill demonstrated the feasibility of EGS by producing the world's first HDR reservoirs. Such pioneering project demonstrated that the fluid circulation can be effectively enhanced by stimulating a preexisting fracture zone. The so-called "hydroshearing" involving shear activation of preexisting fractures is recognized as one of the main processes effectively enhancing permeability. The goal of this work is to quantify the effect of shear reactivation on permeability by proposing a model that accounts for fracture opening and shearing. We develop a case base on a pressure stimulation experiment at Fenton Hill, in which observation suggest that a fracture was jacked open by pressure increase. The proposed model can successfully reproduce such a behavior, and we compare the base case of pure elastic opening with the hydroshearing model to demonstrate that this latter could have occurred at the field, although no "felt" seismicity was observed. Then we investigate on the sensitivity of the proposed model by varying some of the critical parameters such as the maximum aperture, the dilation angle, as well as the fracture density.

A High Resolution Hydrodynamic Model of Puget Sound to Support Nearshore Restoration Feasibility Analysis and Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khangaonkar, Tarang; Yang, Zhaoqing

2011-01-01

Estuarine and coastal hydrodynamic processes are sometimes neglected in the design and planning of nearshore restoration actions. Despite best intentions, efforts to restore nearshore habitats can result in poor outcomes if circulation and transport which also affect freshwater-saltwater interactions are not properly addressed. Limitations due to current land use can lead to selection of sub-optimal restoration alternatives that may result in undesirable consequences, such as flooding, deterioration of water quality, and erosion, requiring immediate remedies and costly repairs. Uncertainty with achieving restoration goals, such as recovery of tidal exchange, supply of sediment and nutrients, and establishment of fish migration pathways,more » may be minimized by using numerical models designed for application to the nearshore environment. A high resolution circulation and transport model of the Puget Sound, in the state of Washington, was developed to assist with nearshore habitat restoration design and analysis, and to answer the question “can we achieve beneficial restoration outcomes at small local scale, as well as at a large estuary-wide scale?” The Puget Sound model is based on an unstructured grid framework to define the complex Puget Sound shoreline using a finite volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM). The capability of the model for simulating the important nearshore processes, such as circulation in complex multiple tidal channels, wetting and drying of tide flats, and water quality and sediment transport as part of restoration feasibility, are illustrated through examples of restoration projects in Puget Sound.« less

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation. 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

DOE PAGES

Daleu, C. L.; Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.; ...

2015-10-24

Here, as part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak-temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistentmore » implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.« less

pyhector: A Python interface for the simple climate model Hector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

N Willner, Sven; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

2017-04-01

Pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production andmore » respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system (Hartin et al. 2016). The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2. These were developed to cover the range of baseline and mitigation emissions scenarios and are widely used in climate change research and model intercomparison projects. Using DataFrames from the Python library Pandas (McKinney 2010) as a data structure for the scenarios simplifies generating and adapting scenarios. Other parameters of the Hector model can easily be modified when running the model. Pyhector can be installed using pip from the Python Package Index.3 Source code and issue tracker are available in Pyhector's GitHub repository4. Documentation is provided through Readthedocs5. Usage examples are also contained in the repository as a Jupyter Notebook (Pérez and Granger 2007; Kluyver et al. 2016). Courtesy of the Mybinder project6, the example Notebook can also be executed and modified without installing Pyhector locally.« less

Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Camille; Michel, Clio; Seland Graff, Lise; Bethke, Ingo; Zappa, Giuseppe; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Fischer, Erich; Harvey, Ben J.; Iversen, Trond; King, Martin P.; Krishnan, Harinarayan; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Mitchell, Daniel; Scinocca, John; Shiogama, Hideo; Stone, Dáithí A.; Wettstein, Justin J.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 °C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 °C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2 °C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.

Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotstayn, L. D.; Jeffrey, S. J.; Collier, M. A.; Dravitzki, S. M.; Hirst, A. C.; Syktus, J. I.; Wong, K. K.

2012-07-01

We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the drivers of trends in summer rainfall and circulation in the vicinity of northern Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we perform a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). To investigate the roles of different forcing agents, we also perform multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951-2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO_AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO_AA. CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong summer rainfall decrease over north-western Australia (NWA) in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weakly positive (but insignificant) during 1951-2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol-induced increase. Observations show a significant increase of summer rainfall over NWA during the last few decades. The large magnitude of the observed NWA rainfall trend is not captured by 440 unforced 60-yr trends calculated from a 500-yr pre-industrial control run, even though the model's decadal variability appears to be realistic. This suggests that the observed trend includes a forced component, despite the fact that the model does not simulate the magnitude of the observed rainfall increase in response to "all forcings" (HIST). We investigate the mechanism of simulated and observed NWA rainfall changes by exploring changes in circulation over the Indo-Pacific region. The key circulation feature associated with the rainfall increase in reanalyses is a lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA, which enhances the monsoonal flow. The model shows an aerosol-induced cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA, whereas GHGAS shows an anticyclonic circulation trend. This explains why the aerosol-induced effect is an increase of rainfall over NWA, and the greenhouse gas-induced effect is of opposite sign. Possible explanations for the cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation trend in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS) involve changes in the Walker circulation or the local Hadley circulation. In either case, a plausible atmospheric mechanism is that the circulation anomaly is a Rossby wave response to convective heating anomalies south of the Equator. We also discuss the possible role of air-sea interactions, e.g. an increase (decrease) of sea-surface temperatures off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS). Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms and the extent to which these are model-dependent. In summary, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols may have "masked" greenhouse gas-induced changes in rainfall over NWA and in circulation over the wider Indo-Pacific region. Due to the opposing effects of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, future trends may be very different from trends observed over the last few decades.

On the role of circulation changes in future Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seager, R.; Ting, M.; Simpson, I.; Shaw, T.

2015-12-01

The "dry-get-drier, wet-get-wetter", otherwise known as "rich-get-richer, poor-get-poorer" concept of the hydrological cycle response to rising greenhouse gases was a major advance in terms of perception of climate change in the research community and the winder public. It provides a good description of hydroclimate change in many regions but especially over the oceans. Here there is a clear divide between wet regions, with positive precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), and dry regions with negative P-E. However over land, long term P-E is either zero or positive and balanced by streamflow and it is not so simple to divide between wet and dry regions. What is more, the simple wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier paradigm is based only on thermodynamics with rising humidity causing increased amplitude of moisture convergence and moisture divergence and, hence, larger variations in P-E. It is now being realized more and more that changes in atmospheric circulation can also drive changes in moisture convergence/divergence and that a full explanation of hydrological cycle change requires attention to circulation change. This will be illustrated with reference to North America and the Mediterranean region. In both case changes in the mean circulation are important drivers of regional hydroclimate change. Model-projected North American hydroclimate change in winter is strongly influenced by a lengthening of the zonal scale of intermediate-scale stationary waves forced by extratropical heating. Wetting at the west coast, drying in the interior southwest and wetting at the US east coast are stronger in models that have a climatological wave field that exaggerates these waves than in models that have more realistic amplitude wave fields. Intense Mediterranean region drying in both summer and winter is also explained in part by shifts towards regional high pressure that, as of now, have not been fully explained. In neither southwest North America nor the Mediterranean, despite the importance of storm systems in delivering moisture to the regions, is projected drying caused by reduced transient eddy moisture convergence. Instead thermodynamic drying and mean flow changes share the responsibility for shifting the regions to drier, more water-stressed, climates.

A Bayesian network modeling approach to forecasting the 21st century worldwide status of polar bears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amstrup, Steven C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.

To inform the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision, whether or not to list polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), we projected the status of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) for decades centered on future years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2095. We defined four ecoregions based on current and projected sea ice conditions: seasonal ice, Canadian Archipelago, polar basin divergent, and polar basin convergent ecoregions. We incorporated general circulation model projections of future sea ice into a Bayesian network (BN) model structured around the factors considered in ESA decisions. This first-generation BN model combined empirical data, interpretations of data, and professional judgments of one polar bear expert into a probabilistic framework that identifies causal links between environmental stressors and polar bear responses. We provide guidance regarding steps necessary to refine the model, including adding inputs from other experts. The BN model projected extirpation of polar bears from the seasonal ice and polar basin divergent ecoregions, where ≈2/3 of the world's polar bears currently occur, by mid century. Projections were less dire in other ecoregions. Decline in ice habitat was the overriding factor driving the model outcomes. Although this is a first-generation model, the dependence of polar bears on sea ice is universally accepted, and the observed sea ice decline is faster than models suggest. Therefore, incorporating judgments of multiple experts in a final model is not expected to fundamentally alter the outlook for polar bears described here.

A modeling study of tidal energy extraction and the associated impact on tidal circulation in a multi-inlet bay system of Puget Sound

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing

Previous tidal energy projects in Puget Sound have focused on major deep channels such as Admiralty Inlet that have a larger power potential but pose greater technical challenges than minor tidal channels connecting to small sub-basins. This paper focuses on the possibility of extracting energy from minor tidal channels by using a hydrodynamic model to quantify the power potential and the associated impact on tidal circulation. The study site is a multi-inlet bay system connected by two narrow inlets, Agate Pass and Rich Passage, to the Main Basin of Puget Sound. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to the studymore » site and calibrated for tidal elevations and currents. We examined three energy extraction scenarios in which turbines were deployed in each of the two passages and concurrently in both. Extracted power rates and associated changes in tidal elevation, current, tidal flux, and residence time were examined. Maximum instantaneous power rates reached 250 kW, 1550 kW, and 1800 kW, respectively, for the three energy extraction scenarios. The model suggests that with the proposed level of energy extraction, the impact on tidal circulation is very small. It is worth investigating the feasibility of harnessing tidal energy from minor tidal channels of Puget Sound.« less

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

2014-09-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

Atlas of Seasonal Means Simulated by the NSIPP 1 Atmospheric GCM. Volume 17

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Bacmeister, Julio; Pegion, Philip J.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This atlas documents the climate characteristics of version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). The AGCM includes an interactive land model (the Mosaic scheme), and is part of the NSIPP coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. The results presented here are based on a 20-year (December 1979-November 1999) "ANIIP-style" integration of the AGCM in which the monthly-mean sea-surface temperature and sea ice are specified from observations. The climate characteristics of the AGCM are compared with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalyses. Other verification data include Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSNM) total precipitable water, the Xie-Arkin estimates of precipitation, and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) measurements of short and long wave radiation. The atlas is organized by season. The basic quantities include seasonal mean global maps and zonal and vertical averages of circulation, variance/covariance statistics, and selected physics quantities.

Final Technical Report for Department of Energy Award DE-SC0006625, “Predictability of the carbon-climate system on seasonal to decadal time scales.”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fung, Inez

The project aims to investigate the feasibility of advancing our understanding of the carbon cycle, using a carbon-weather data assimilation system that updates the modeled carbon dioxide concentration and atmospheric circulation every six hours using CO 2 data (from the OCO 2 satellite) and weather data. At the core of the system is the DOE-NCAR-CAM5fv global circulation model coupled to the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Data Assimilation Testbed, running an ensemble of 30 models. This combination provides realistic vertical carbon dioxide gradients and conservation of dry air mass. A global four-dimensional distribution of atmospheric CO 2 concentration is produced.more » Our results show (1) that OCO 2 total precipitable water data are reliable and provide valuable uncertainty information for the OCO 2 data assimilation; and (2) that our approach is a promising method for monitoring national carbon dioxide emissions.« less

Watershed scale response to climate change--Yampa River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Battaglin, William A.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Yampa River Basin at Steamboat Springs, Colorado.

Internal pedestrian circulation and common open space, also illustrating mature ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

Internal pedestrian circulation and common open space, also illustrating mature landscape features. Building 35 at left foreground. Facing east - Harbor Hills Housing Project, 26607 Western Avenue, Lomita, Los Angeles County, CA

Antarctic boundary layer parametrization in a general circulation model: 1-D simulations facing summer observations at Dome C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vignon, Etienne; Hourdin, Frédéric; Genthon, Christophe; Gallée, Hubert; Bazile, Eric; Lefebvre, Marie-Pierre; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Van de Wiel, Bas J. H.

2017-07-01

The parametrization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is critical over the Antarctic Plateau for climate modelling since it affects the climatological temperature inversion and the negatively buoyant near-surface flow over the ice-sheet. This study challenges state-of-the-art parametrizations used in general circulation models to represent the clear-sky summertime diurnal cycle of the ABL at Dome C, Antarctic Plateau. The Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Zoom model is run in a 1-D configuration on the fourth Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges Project Atmospheric Boundary Layers Study case. Simulations are analyzed and compared to observations, giving insights into the sensitivity of one model that participates to the intercomparison exercise. Snow albedo and thermal inertia are calibrated leading to better surface temperatures. Using the so-called "thermal plume model" improves the momentum mixing in the diurnal ABL. In stable conditions, four turbulence schemes are tested. Best simulations are those in which the turbulence cuts off above 35 m in the middle of the night, highlighting the contribution of the longwave radiation in the ABL heat budget. However, the nocturnal surface layer is not stable enough to distinguish between surface fluxes computed with different stability functions. The absence of subsidence in the forcings and an underestimation of downward longwave radiation are identified to be likely responsible for a cold bias in the nocturnal ABL. Apart from model-specific improvements, the paper clarifies on which are the critical aspects to improve in general circulation models to correctly represent the summertime ABL over the Antarctic Plateau.

Evaluation of operational numerical weather predictions in relation to the prevailing synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Karacostas, Theodore; Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Kartsios, Stergios; Bampzelis, Dimitrios

2015-04-01

The Thessaly plain, which is located in central Greece, has a vital role in the financial life of the country, because of its significant agricultural production. The aim of DAPHNE project (http://www.daphne-meteo.gr) is to tackle the problem of drought in this area by means of Weather Modification in convective clouds. This problem is reinforced by the increase of population and the water demand for irrigation, especially during the warm period of the year. The nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), is utilized for research and operational purposes of DAPHNE project. The WRF output fields are employed by the partners in order to provide high-resolution meteorological guidance and plan the project's operations. The model domains cover: i) Europe, the Mediterranean sea and northern Africa, ii) Greece and iii) the wider region of Thessaly (at selected periods), at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km, respectively, using 2-way telescoping nesting. The aim of this research work is to investigate the model performance in relation to the prevailing upper-air synoptic circulation. The statistical evaluation of the high-resolution operational forecasts of near-surface and upper air fields is performed at a selected period of the operational phase of the project using surface observations, gridded fields and weather radar data. The verification is based on gridded, point and object oriented techniques. The 10 upper-air circulation types, which describe the prevailing conditions over Greece, are employed in the synoptic classification. This methodology allows the identification of model errors that occur and/or are maximized at specific synoptic conditions and may otherwise be obscured in aggregate statistics. Preliminary analysis indicates that the largest errors are associated with cyclonic conditions. Acknowledgments This research work of Daphne project (11SYN_8_1088) is co-funded by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" in the framework of the Operational Programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staten, Paul; Reichler, Thomas; Lu, Jian

Tropospheric circulation shifts have strong potential to impact surface climate. But the magnitude of these shifts in a changing climate, and the attending regional hydrological changes, are difficult to project. Part of this difficulty arises from our lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms behind the circulation shifts themselves. In order to better delineate circulation shifts and their respective causes, we decompose the circulation response into (1) the "direct" response to radiative forcings themselves, and (2) the "indirect" response to changing sea surface temperatures. Using ensembles of 90-day climate model simulations with immediate switch-on forcings, including perturbed greenhouse gas concentrations,more » stratospheric ozone concentrations, and sea surface temperatures, we document the direct and indirect transient responses of the zonal mean general circulation, and investigate the roles of previously proposed mechanisms in shifting the midlatitude jet. We find that both the direct and indirect wind responses often begin in the lower stratosphere. Changes in midlatitude eddies are ubiquitous and synchronous with the midlatitude zonal wind response. Shifts in the critical latitude of wave absorption on either flank of the jet are not indicted as primary factors for the poleward shifting jet, although we see some evidence for increasing equatorward wave reflection over the southern hemisphere in response to sea surface warming. Mechanisms for the northern hemisphere jet shift are less clear.« less

Circulation on the Go-Implementing Wireless Laptop Circulation in a State University Academic Library

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Power, June L.

2007-01-01

In 2004, Sampson-Livermore Library at The University of North Carolina at Pembroke, began circulating laptops to its patrons. After a small pilot project, full-scale implementation occurred and the service proved to be very popular. Policies and procedures were adjusted at several steps along the way to accommodate lessons learned from the…

Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.

This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the fivemore » ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.« less

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Status and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, R.

2009-04-01

NARCCAP is an international program that is generating projections of climate change for the U.S., Canada, and northern Mexico at decision-relevant regional scales. NARCCAP uses multiple limited-area regional climate models (RCMs) nested within multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The use of multiple regional and global models allows us to investigate the uncertainty in model responses to future emissions (here, the A2 SRES scenario). The project also includes global time-slice experiments at the same discretization (50 km) using the GFDL atmospheric model (AM2.1) and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3). Phase I of the experiment uses the regional models nested within reanalysis in order to establish uncertainty attributable to the RCMs themselves. Phase II of the project then nests the RCMs within results from the current and future runs of the AOGCMs to explore the cascade of uncertainty from the global to the regional models. Phase I has been completed and the results to be shown include findings that spectral nudging is beneficial in some regions but not in others. Phase II is nearing completion and some preliminary results will be shown.

Circulation and physical processes within the San Gabriel River Estuary during summer 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberger, Kurt J.; Xu, Jingping; Stein, Eric D.; Noble, Marlene A.; Gartner, Anne L.

2007-01-01

The Southern California Coastal Water Research Project (SCCWRP) is developing a hydrodynamic model of the SGR estuary, which is part of the comprehensive water-quality model of the SGR estuary and watershed investigated by SCCWRP and other local agencies. The hydrodynamic model will help understanding of 1) the exchange processes between the estuary and coastal ocean; 2) the circulation patterns in the estuary; 3) upstream natural runoff and the cooling discharge from PGS. Like all models, the SGR hydrodynamic model is only useful after it is fully calibrated and validated. In May 2005, SCCWRP requested the assistance of the U.S. geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology team (CMG) in collecting data on the hydrodynamic conditions in the estuary during the summer dry season. The summer was chosen for field data collection as this was assumed to be the season with the greatest potential for chronic degraded water quality due to low river flow and high thermal stratification within the estuary (due to both higher average air temperature and PGS output). Water quality can be degraded in winter as well, when higher river discharge events bring large volumes of water from the Los Angeles basin into the estuary. The objectives of this project were to 1) collect hydrodynamic data along the SGR estuary; 2) study exchange processes within the estuary through analysis of the hydrodynamic data; and 3) provide field data for model calibration and validation. As the data only exist for the summer season, the results herein only apply to summer conditions.

Longitudinal Evaluation of Fatty Acid Metabolism in Normal and Spontaneously Hypertensive Rat Hearts with Dynamic MicroSPECT Imaging

DOE PAGES

Reutter, Bryan W.; Huesman, Ronald H.; Brennan, Kathleen M.; ...

2011-01-01

The goal of this project is to develop radionuclide molecular imaging technologies using a clinical pinhole SPECT/CT scanner to quantify changes in cardiac metabolism using the spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR) as a model of hypertensive-related pathophysiology. This paper quantitatively compares fatty acid metabolism in hearts of SHR and Wistar-Kyoto normal rats as a function of age and thereby tracks physiological changes associated with the onset and progression of heart failure in the SHR model. The fatty acid analog, 123 I-labeled BMIPP, was used in longitudinal metabolic pinhole SPECT imaging studies performed every seven months for 21 months. The uniqueness ofmore » this project is the development of techniques for estimating the blood input function from projection data acquired by a slowly rotating camera that is imaging fast circulation and the quantification of the kinetics of 123 I-BMIPP by fitting compartmental models to the blood and tissue time-activity curves.« less

Storm-induced changes in coastal geomorphology control estuarine secondary productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filgueira, Ramón; Guyondet, Thomas; Comeau, Luc A.; Grant, Jon

2014-01-01

Estuarine ecosystems are highly sensitive not only to projected effects of climate change such as ocean warming, acidification, and sea-level rise but also to the incidence of nor'easter storms and hurricanes. The effects of storms and hurricanes can be extreme, with immediate impact on coastal geomorphology and water circulation, which is integral to estuarine function and consequently to provision of ecosystem services. In this article, we present the results of a natural estuarine-scale experiment on the effects of changes in coastal geomorphology on hydrodynamics and aquaculture production. A bay in Prince Edward Island, Canada, was altered when a nor'easter storm eroded a second tidal inlet through a barrier island. Previous field and modeling studies allowed a comparison of prestorm and post-storm circulation, food limitation by cultured mussels, and aquaculture harvest. Dramatic increases in mussel production occurred in the year following the opening of the new inlet. Model studies showed that post-storm circulation reduced food limitation for cultured mussels, allowing greater growth. Climate change is expected to have severe effects on the delivery of marine ecosystem services to human populations by changing the underlying physical-biological coupling inherent to their functioning.

On the glacial and interglacial thermohaline circulation and the associated transports of heat and freshwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarotta, M.; Falahat, S.; Brodeau, L.; Döös, K.

2014-11-01

The thermohaline circulation (THC) and the oceanic heat and freshwater transports are essential for understanding the global climate system. Streamfunctions are widely used in oceanography to represent the THC and estimate the transport of heat and freshwater. In the present study, the regional and global changes of the THC, the transports of heat and freshwater and the timescale of the circulation between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ≈ 21 kyr ago) and the present-day climate are explored using an Ocean General Circulation Model and streamfunctions projected in various coordinate systems. We found that the LGM tropical circulation is about 10% stronger than under modern conditions due to stronger wind stress. Consequently, the maximum tropical transport of heat is about 20% larger during the LGM. In the North Atlantic basin, the large sea-ice extent during the LGM constrains the Gulf Stream to propagate in a more zonal direction, reducing the transport of heat towards high latitudes by almost 50% and reorganising the freshwater transport. The strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation depends strongly on the coordinate system. It varies between 9 and 16 Sv during the LGM, and between 12 to 19 Sv for the present day. Similar to paleo-proxy reconstructions, a large intrusion of saline Antarctic Bottom Water takes place into the Northern Hemisphere basins and squeezes most of the Conveyor Belt circulation into a shallower part of the ocean. These different haline regimes between the glacial and interglacial period are illustrated by the streamfunctions in latitude-salinity coordinates and thermohaline coordinates. From these diagnostics, we found that the LGM Conveyor Belt circulation is driven by an enhanced salinity contrast between the Atlantic and the Pacific basin. The LGM abyssal circulation lifts and makes the Conveyor Belt cell deviate from the abyssal region, resulting in a ventilated upper layer above a deep stagnant layer, and an Atlantic circulation more isolated from the Pacific. An estimate of the timescale of the circulation reveals a sluggish abyssal circulation during the LGM, and a Conveyor Belt circulation that is more vigorous due to the combination of a stronger wind stress and a shortened circulation route.

Variability of hydrological extreme events in East Asia and their dynamical control: a comparison between observations and two high-resolution global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freychet, N.; Duchez, A.; Wu, C.-H.; Chen, C.-A.; Hsu, H.-H.; Hirschi, J.; Forryan, A.; Sinha, B.; New, A. L.; Graham, T.; Andrews, M. B.; Tu, C.-Y.; Lin, S.-J.

2017-02-01

This work investigates the variability of extreme weather events (drought spells, DS15, and daily heavy rainfall, PR99) over East Asia. It particularly focuses on the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with high levels of the occurrence of these extreme events. Two observational datasets (APHRODITE and PERSIANN) are compared with two high-resolution global climate models (HiRAM and HadGEM3-GC2) and an ensemble of other lower resolution climate models from CMIP5. We first evaluate the performance of the high resolution models. They both exhibit good skill in reproducing extreme events, especially when compared with CMIP5 results. Significant differences exist between the two observational datasets, highlighting the difficulty of having a clear estimate of extreme events. The link between the variability of the extremes and the large scale circulation is investigated, on monthly and interannual timescales, using composite and correlation analyses. Both extreme indices DS15 and PR99 are significantly linked to the low level wind intensity over East Asia, i.e. the monsoon circulation. It is also found that DS15 events are strongly linked to the surface temperature over the Siberian region and to the land-sea pressure contrast, while PR99 events are linked to the sea surface temperature anomalies over the West North Pacific. These results illustrate the importance of the monsoon circulation on extremes over East Asia. The dependencies on of the surface temperature over the continent and the sea surface temperature raise the question as to what extent they could affect the occurrence of extremes over tropical regions in future projections.

The contribution of natural variability to GCM bias: Can we effectively bias-correct climate projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAfee, S. A.; DeLaFrance, A.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impacts of climate change often entails using projections from inherently imperfect general circulation models (GCMs) to drive models that simulate biophysical or societal systems in great detail. Error or bias in the GCM output is often assessed in relation to observations, and the projections are adjusted so that the output from impacts models can be compared to historical or observed conditions. Uncertainty in the projections is typically accommodated by running more than one future climate trajectory to account for differing emissions scenarios, model simulations, and natural variability. The current methods for dealing with error and uncertainty treat them as separate problems. In places where observed and/or simulated natural variability is large, however, it may not be possible to identify a consistent degree of bias in mean climate, blurring the lines between model error and projection uncertainty. Here we demonstrate substantial instability in mean monthly temperature bias across a suite of GCMs used in CMIP5. This instability is greatest in the highest latitudes during the cool season, where shifts from average temperatures below to above freezing could have profound impacts. In models with the greatest degree of bias instability, the timing of regional shifts from below to above average normal temperatures in a single climate projection can vary by about three decades, depending solely on the degree of bias assessed. This suggests that current bias correction methods based on comparison to 20- or 30-year normals may be inappropriate, particularly in the polar regions.

A Wetter Future For California?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luptowitz, R.; Allen, R.

2016-12-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large natural variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project driven by the business-as-usual scenario, and find a robust increase in CA precipitation. This implies CMIP5 model differences are the dominant cause of the large range of future CA precipitation projections. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection, including a southeastward shift of the upper level winds and an increase in storm track activity in the east Pacific, and an increase in CA moisture convergence. We further show that warming of tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures-a robust feature in all models-accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnections, including CESM, tend to yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation. Our results show that California will become wetter in a warmer world.

Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Choi, Jun-Young; Jin, Fei-Fei; Watanabe, Masahiro

2018-01-01

Future changes in rainfall have serious impacts on human adaptation to climate change, but quantification of these changes is subject to large uncertainties in climate model projections. To narrow these uncertainties, significant efforts have been made to understand the intermodel differences in future rainfall changes. Here, we show a strong inverse relationship between present-day precipitation and its future change to possibly calibrate future precipitation change by removing the present-day bias in climate models. The results of the models with less tropical (40° S-40° N) present-day precipitation are closely linked to the dryness over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, and project weaker regional precipitation increase due to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing1-6 with stronger zonal Walker circulation. This induces Indo-western Pacific warming through Bjerknes feedback, which reduces relative humidity by the enhanced atmospheric boundary-layer mixing in the future projection. This increases the air-sea humidity difference to enhance tropical evaporation and the resultant precipitation. Our estimation of the sensitivity of the tropical precipitation per 1 K warming, after removing a common bias in the present-day simulation, is about 50% greater than the original future multi-model projection.

Limits on determining the skill of North Atlantic Ocean decadal predictions.

PubMed

Menary, Matthew B; Hermanson, Leon

2018-04-27

The northern North Atlantic is important globally both through its impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and through widespread atmospheric teleconnections. The region has been shown to be potentially predictable a decade ahead with the skill of decadal predictions assessed against reanalyses of the ocean state. Here, we show that the prediction skill in this region is strongly dependent on the choice of reanalysis used for validation, and describe the causes. Multiannual skill in key metrics such as Labrador Sea density and the AMOC depends on more than simply the choice of the prediction model. Instead, this skill is related to the similarity between the nature of interannual density variability in the underlying climate model and the chosen reanalysis. The climate models used in these decadal predictions are also used in climate projections, which raises questions about the sensitivity of these projections to the models' innate North Atlantic density variability.

Two-dimensional models of early-type fast rotating stars: the ESTER project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieutord, Michel

In this talk I present the latest results of the ESTER project that has taken up the challenge of building two dimensional (axisymmetric) models of stars rotating at any rotation rate. In particular, I focus on main sequence massive and intermediate mass stars. I show what should be expected in such stars as far as the differential rotation and the associated meridional circulation are concerned, notably the emergence of a Stewartson layer along the tangent cylinder of the core. I also indicate what may be inferred about the evolution of an intermediate-mass star at constant angular momentum and how Be stars may form. I finally give some comparisons between models and observations of the gravity darkening on some nearby fast rotators as it has been derived from interferometric observations. In passing, I also discuss how 2D models can help to recover the fundamental parameters of a star.

Key processes for the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation based on multimodel simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xianan

2017-01-01

As a prominent climate variability mode with widespread influences on global weather extremes, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains poorly represented in the latest generation of general circulation models (GCMs), with a particular challenge in simulating its eastward propagating convective signals. In this study, by analyzing multimodel simulations from a recent global MJO model evaluation project, an effort is made to identify key processes for the eastward propagation of the MJO through analyses of moisture entropy (ME) processes under a "moisture mode" framework for the MJO. The column-integrated horizontal ME advection is found to play a critical role for the eastward propagation of the MJO in both observations and good MJO models, with a primary contribution through advection of the lower tropospheric seasonal mean ME by the MJO anomalous circulations. By contrast, the horizontal ME advection effect for the eastward propagation is greatly underestimated in poor MJO GCMs, due to model deficiencies in simulating both the seasonal mean ME pattern and MJO circulations, leading to a largely stationary MJO mode in these GCMs. These results thus pinpoint an important guidance toward improved representation of the MJO in climate and weather forecast models. While this study mainly focuses on fundamental physics for the MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean, complex influences by the Maritime Continent on the MJO and also ME processes associated with the MJO over the western Pacific warrant further investigations.

Electrical Lumped Model Examination for Load Variation of Circulation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koya, Yoshiharu; Ito, Mitsuyo; Mizoshiri, Isao

Modeling and analysis of the circulation system enables the characteristic decision of circulation system in the body to be made. So, many models of circulation system have been proposed. But, they are complicated because the models include a lot of elements. Therefore, we proposed a complete circulation model as a lumped electrical circuit, which is comparatively simple. In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of the complete circulation model as a lumped electrical circuit. We use normal, angina pectoris, dilated cardiomyopathy and myocardial infarction for evaluation of the ventricular contraction function.

Overview and Status of the Los Alamos PSR Injection Upgrade Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzgerald, D. H.; Ahn, H.; Blind, B.; Borden, M. J.; Macek, R. J.; Neri, F.; Rose, C. R.; Thiessen, H. A.; Wilkinson, C. A.; Zumbro, M. V.

1997-05-01

An upgrade is in progress to the Los Alamos Proton Storage Ring (PSR) to allow direct injection of the H^- beam into the ring and provide a beam bump system to move the circulating beam off the stripper foil. The primary benefits of this upgrade are matching the transverse phase space of the injected beam to the PSR acceptance and reduction of foil hits by the circulating beam by a factor of ten. Foil thickness is optimized to minimize the combination of circulating-beam losses plus losses due to excited H^0 states produced at injection. An overall factor of four reduction in losses is expected. The project comprises extensive modifications of the injection line, the injection section of the ring, and the waste-beam transport line. We will discuss the goals of the project, present an overview of the technical design, and describe the status of the implementation plan.

Ocean Carbon Flux, Transport, and Burial Within the Western and Eastern US Coastal Zones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McWilliams, James C.; Moisan, John R.; Haidvogel, Dale B.; Miller, Arthur J.; Cornuelle, Bruce; Stolzenbach, Keith D.

2004-01-01

This project has been to develop and apply a regional. eddy-resolving circulation and biogeochemistry model of both the western and eastern U.S. coastal regions, capable of simulating the processes that control the carbon cycle. Validation has been by statistical comparison with analyses from various satellite measurements, including those from EOS sensors, as well as from in situ measurements. Sensitivity studies were carried out to investigate how the coastal ecosystem and biogeochemical cycles respond to changes in climate, large-scale eutrophication from indus- trial pollution, and other anthropogenic induced changes. The research has been conducted in collaboration with research groups at UCLA. NASA/GSFC (Wallops), Rutgers, and SIO. Overall. the project was focused on several key modeling issues, each of which tie back into completing the primary task of developing a coastal carbon model for both the eastern and western US. coasts. Individual groups within the entire program are still collaborating to address these specific tasks. These include: implementation of the coupled circulation/biogeochemical model within the U.S. West Coast. including high-resolution, embedded subdomains for the Southern California Bight and Monterey Bay region; development of a biogeochemical model with resolved carbon, nitrogen and oxygen cycles; development of data assimilation techniques for use of satellite data sets; reconfiguration of the model domain to U.S. East Coast; development of coastal forcing fields: development of methods to compare the model against remotely sensed data; and, the test of model sensitivity to environmental conditions. Below, we present a summary of the progress made toward achieving these soak. Because this has been a multi-institutional, collaborative effort, we note the groups involved with particular activities.

A Statistical Modeling Framework for Projecting Future Ambient Ozone and its Health Impact due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

2014-01-01

The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041–2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999–2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: −7% to 24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models. PMID:24764746

Reliability of the North America CORDEX and NARCCAP simulations in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmalkar, A.

2017-12-01

Ensembles of dynamically downscaled climate change simulations are routinely used to capture uncertainty in projections at regional scales. I assess the reliability of two such ensembles for North America - NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX - by investigating the impact of model selection on representing uncertainty in regional projections, and the ability of the regional climate models (RCMs) to provide reliable information. These aspects - discussed for the six regions used in the US National Climate Assessment - provide an important perspective on the interpretation of downscaled results. I show that selecting general circulation models for downscaling based on their equilibrium climate sensitivities is a reasonable choice, but the six models chosen for NA-CORDEX do a poor job at representing uncertainty in winter temperature and precipitation projections in many parts of the eastern US, which lead to overconfident projections. The RCM performance is highly variable across models, regions, and seasons and the ability of the RCMs to provide improved seasonal mean performance relative to their parent GCMs seems limited in both RCM ensembles. Additionally, the ability of the RCMs to simulate historical climates is not strongly related to their ability to simulate climate change across the ensemble. This finding suggests limited use of models' historical performance to constrain their projections. Given these challenges in dynamical downscaling, the RCM results should not be used in isolation. Information on how well the RCM ensembles represent known uncertainties in regional climate change projections discussed here needs to be communicated clearly to inform maagement decisions.

The Canary Basin contribution to the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Hernández, M. D.; McCarthy, G. D.; Vélez-Belchí, P.; Smeed, D. A.; Fraile-Nuez, E.; Hernández-Guerra, A.

2015-11-01

This study examines the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its eastern boundary contributions. The cycle has a magnitude of 6 Sv, as measured by the RAPID/MOCHA/WBTS project array at 26°N, which is driven largely by the eastern boundary. The eastern boundary variations are explored in the context of the regional circulation around the Canary Islands. There is a 3 month lag between maximum wind forcing and the largest eastern boundary transports, which is explained in terms of a model for Rossby wave generated at the eastern boundary. Two dynamic processes take place through the Lanzarote Passage (LP) in fall: the recirculation of the Canary Current and the northward flow of the Intermediate Poleward Undercurrent. In contrast, during the remaining seasons the transport through the LP is southward due to the Canary Upwelling Current. These processes are linked to the seasonal cycle of the AMOC.

The Dynamics of Hadley Circulation Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Nicholas Alexander

The Hadley circulation exerts a dominant control on the surface climate of earth's tropical belt. Its converging surface winds fuel the tropical rains, while subsidence in the subtropics dries and stabilizes the atmosphere, creating deserts on land and stratocumulus decks over the oceans. Because of the strong meridional gradients in temperature and precipitation in the subtropics, any shift in the Hadley circulation edge could project as major changes in surface climate. While climate model simulations predict an expansion of the Hadley cells in response to greenhouse gas forcings, the mechanisms remain elusive. An analysis of the climatology, variability, and response of the Hadley circulation to radiative forcings in climate models and reanalyses illuminates the broader landscape in which Hadley cell expansion is realized. The expansion is a fundamental response of the atmosphere to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations as it scales with other key climate system changes, including polar amplification, increasing static stability, stratospheric cooling, and increasing global-mean surface temperatures. Multiple measures of the Hadley circulation edge latitudes co-vary with the latitudes of the eddy-driven jets on all timescales, and both exhibit a robust poleward shift in response to forcings. Further, across models there is a robust coupling between the eddy-driving on the Hadley cells and their width. On the other hand, the subtropical jet and tropopause break latitudes, two common observational proxies for the tropical belt edges, lack a strong statistical relationship with the Hadley cell edges and have no coherent response to forcings. This undermines theories for the Hadley cell width predicated on angular momentum conservation and calls for a new framework for understanding Hadley cell expansion. A numerical framework is developed within an idealized general circulation model to isolate the mean flow and eddy responses of the global atmosphere to radiative forcings. It is found that it is primarily the eddy response to greenhouse-gas-like forcings that causes Hadley cell expansion. However, the mean flow changes in the Hadley circulation itself crucially mediate this eddy response such that the full response comes about due to eddy-mean flow interactions. A theoretical scaling for the Hadley cell width based on moist static energy is developed to provide an improved framework to understand climate change responses of the general circulation. The scaling predicts that expansion is driven by increases in the surface latent heat flux and the width of the rising branch of the circulation and opposed by increases in tropospheric radiative cooling. A reduction in subtropical moist static energy flux divergence by the eddies is key, as it tilts the energetic balance in favor of expansion.

Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

2014-12-01

Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This study is part of the FuturAgua project funded by the Belmont Freshwater Security call. The expert opinions on expected changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern are being used to inform regional efforts to build drought resilience and to create and compare alternative water management strategies with the region's stakeholders.

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

2018-01-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

Coupled-Circulation-Chemistry Studies with the Finite-Volume CCM: Trace Gas Transport in the Tropopause Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, Steven; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Rood, Richard B.; Nebuda, Sharon; Nielsen, J. Eric; Douglass, Anne R.

2000-01-01

A joint project between the Data Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC and NCAR involves linking the physical packages from the Community Climate Model (CCM) with the flux-form semi-Lagrangian dynamical core developed by Lin and Rood in the DAO. A further development of this model includes the implementation of a chemical package developed by Douglass and colleagues in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch at NASA GSFC. Results from this coupled dynamics-radiation-chemistry model will be presented, focussing on trace gas transport in the tropopause region.

Supporting observation campaigns with high resolution modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klocke, Daniel; Brueck, Matthias; Voigt, Aiko

2017-04-01

High resolution simulation in support of measurement campaigns offers a promising and emerging way to create large-scale context for small-scale observations of clouds and precipitation processes. As these simulation include the coupling of measured small-scale processes with the circulation, they also help to integrate the research communities from modeling and observations and allow for detailed model evaluations against dedicated observations. In connection with the measurement campaign NARVAL (August 2016 and December 2013) simulations with a grid-spacing of 2.5 km for the tropical Atlantic region (9000x3300 km), with local refinement to 1.2 km for the western part of the domain, were performed using the icosahedral non-hydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model. These simulations are again used to drive large eddy resolving simulations with the same model for selected days in the high definition clouds and precipitation for advancing climate prediction (HD(CP)2) project. The simulations are presented with the focus on selected results showing the benefit for the scientific communities doing atmospheric measurements and numerical modeling of climate and weather. Additionally, an outlook will be given on how similar simulations will support the NAWDEX measurement campaign in the North Atlantic and AC3 measurement campaign in the Arctic.

MOCASSIM - an operational forecast system for the Portuguese coastal waters.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitorino, J.; Soares, C.; Almeida, S.; Rusu, E.; Pinto, J.

2003-04-01

An operational system for the forecast of oceanographic conditions off the Portuguese coast is presently being implemented at Instituto Hidrográfico (IH), in the framework of project MOCASSIM. The system is planned to use a broad range of observations provided both from IH observational networks (wave buoys, tidal gauges) and programs (hydrographic surveys, moorings) as well as from external sources. The MOCASSIM system integrates several numerical models which, combined, are intended to cover the relevant physical processes observed in the geographical areas of interest. At the present stage of development the system integrates a circulation module and a wave module. The circulation module is based on the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), a primitive equation model formulated under the rigid lid assumption, which includes a data assimilation module. The wave module is based on the WaveWatch3 (WW3) model, which provides wave conditions in the North Atlantic basin, and on the SWAN model which is used to improve the wave forecasts on coastal or other specific areas of interest. The models use the meteorological forcing fields of a limited area model (ALADIN model) covering the Portuguese area, which are being provided in the framework of a close colaboration with Instituto de Meteorologia. Although still under devellopment, the MOCASSIM system has already been used in several operationnal contexts. These included the operational environmental assessment during both national and NATO navy exercises and, more recently, the monitoring of the oceanographic conditions in the NW Iberian area affected by the oil spill of MV "Prestige". The system is also a key component of ongoing research on the oceanography of the Portuguese continental margin, which is presently being conducted at IH in the framework of national and European funded projects.

Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

2016-01-01

The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

Feasibility of Tidal and Ocean Current Energy in False Pass, Aleutian Islands, Alaska final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wright, Bruce Albert

The Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association was awarded a U.S. Department of Energy Tribal Energy Program grant (DE-EE0005624) for the Feasibility of Tidal and Ocean Current Energy in False Pass, Aleutian Islands, Alaska (Project). The goal of the Project was to perform a feasibility study to determine if a tidal energy project would be a viable means to generate electricity and heat to meet long-term fossil fuel use reduction goals, specifically to produce at least 30% of the electrical and heating needs of the tribally-owned buildings in False Pass. The Project Team included the Aleut Region organizations comprised of the Aleutianmore » Pribilof Island Association (APIA), and Aleutian Pribilof Island Community Development Association (APICDA); the University of Alaska Anchorage, ORPC Alaska a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ocean Renewable Power Company (ORPC), City of False Pass, Benthic GeoScience, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The following Project objectives were completed: collected existing bathymetric, tidal, and ocean current data to develop a basic model of current circulation at False Pass, measured current velocities at two sites for a full lunar cycle to establish the viability of the current resource, collected data on transmission infrastructure, electrical loads, and electrical generation at False Pass, performed economic analysis based on current costs of energy and amount of energy anticipated from and costs associated with the tidal energy project conceptual design and scoped environmental issues. Utilizing circulation modeling, the Project Team identified two target sites with strong potential for robust tidal energy resources in Isanotski Strait and another nearer the City of False Pass. In addition, the Project Team completed a survey of the electrical infrastructure, which identified likely sites of interconnection and clarified required transmission distances from the tidal energy resources. Based on resource and electrical data, the Project Team developed a conceptual tidal energy project design utilizing ORPC’s TidGen® Power System. While the Project Team has not committed to ORPC technology for future development of a False Pass project, this conceptual design was critical to informing the Project’s economic analysis. The results showed that power from a tidal energy project could be provided to the City of False at a rate at or below the cost of diesel generated electricity and sold to commercial customers at rates competitive with current market rates, providing a stable, flat priced, environmentally sound alternative to the diesel generation currently utilized for energy in the community. The Project Team concluded that with additional grants and private investment a tidal energy project at False Pass is well-positioned to be the first tidal energy project to be developed in Alaska, and the first tidal energy project to be interconnected to an isolated micro grid in the world. A viable project will be a model for similar projects in coastal Alaska.« less

Mapping (un)certainties in the sign of hydrological projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, Lieke; Addor, Nans; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Torfs, Paul; Clark, Martyn; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Ryan

2017-04-01

While hydrological projections are of vital importance, particularly for water infrastructure design and food production, they are also prone to different sources of uncertainty. Using a multi-model set-up we investigated the uncertainty in hydrological projections for the period 2070-2100 associated with the parameterization of hydrological models, hydrological model structure, and General Circulation Models (GCMs) needed to force the hydrological model, for 605 basins throughout the contiguous United States. The use of such a large sample of basins gave us the opportunity to recognize spatial patterns in the results, and to attribute the uncertainty to particular hydrological processes. We investigated the sign of the projected change in mean annual runoff. The parameterization influenced the sign of change in 5 to 34% of the basins, depending on the hydrological model and GCM forcing. The hydrological model structure led to uncertainty in the sign of the change in 13 to 26% of the basins, depending on GCM forcing. This uncertainty could largely be attributed to the conceptualization of snow processes in the hydrological models. In 14% of the basins, none of the hydrological models was behavioural, which could be related to catchments with high aridity and intermittent flow behaviour. In 41 to 69% of the basins, the sign of the change was uncertain due to GCM forcing, which could be attributed to disagreement among the climate models regarding the projected change in precipitation. The results demonstrate that even the sign of change in mean annual runoff is highly uncertain in the majority of the investigated basins. If we want to use hydrological projections for water management purposes, including the design of water infrastructure, we clearly need to increase our understanding of climate and hydrological processes and their feedbacks.

Co-Production of Electricity and Hydrogen Using a Novel Iron-based Catalyst

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hilaly, Ahmad; Georgas, Adam; Leboreiro, Jose

2011-09-30

The primary objective of this project was to develop a hydrogen production technology for gasification applications based on a circulating fluid-bed reactor and an attrition resistant iron catalyst. The work towards achieving this objective consisted of three key activities: Development of an iron-based catalyst suitable for a circulating fluid-bed reactor; Design, construction, and operation of a bench-scale circulating fluid-bed reactor system for hydrogen production; Techno-economic analysis of the steam-iron and the pressure swing adsorption hydrogen production processes. This report describes the work completed in each of these activities during this project. The catalyst development and testing program prepared and iron-basedmore » catalysts using different support and promoters to identify catalysts that had sufficient activity for cyclic reduction with syngas and steam oxidation and attrition resistance to enable use in a circulating fluid-bed reactor system. The best performing catalyst from this catalyst development program was produced by a commercial catalyst toll manufacturer to support the bench-scale testing activities. The reactor testing systems used during material development evaluated catalysts in a single fluid-bed reactor by cycling between reduction with syngas and oxidation with steam. The prototype SIP reactor system (PSRS) consisted of two circulating fluid-bed reactors with the iron catalyst being transferred between the two reactors. This design enabled demonstration of the technical feasibility of the combination of the circulating fluid-bed reactor system and the iron-based catalyst for commercial hydrogen production. The specific activities associated with this bench-scale circulating fluid-bed reactor systems that were completed in this project included design, construction, commissioning, and operation. The experimental portion of this project focused on technical demonstration of the performance of an iron-based catalyst and a circulating fluid-bed reactor system for hydrogen production. Although a technology can be technically feasible, successful commercial deployment also requires that a technology offer an economic advantage over existing commercial technologies. To effective estimate the economics of this steam-iron process, a techno-economic analysis of this steam iron process and a commercial pressure swing adsorption process were completed. The results from this analysis described in this report show the economic potential of the steam iron process for integration with a gasification plant for coproduction of hydrogen and electricity.« less

Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

2005-12-01

We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such modelsmore » do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3« less

Pre-test analysis of protected loss of primary pump transients in CIRCE-HERO facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narcisi, V.; Giannetti, F.; Del Nevo, A.; Tarantino, M.; Caruso, G.

2017-11-01

In the frame of LEADER project (Lead-cooled European Advanced Demonstration Reactor), a new configuration of the steam generator for ALFRED (Advanced Lead Fast Reactor European Demonstrator) was proposed. The new concept is a super-heated steam generator, double wall bayonet tube type with leakage monitoring [1]. In order to support the new steam generator concept, in the framework of Horizon 2020 SESAME project (thermal hydraulics Simulations and Experiments for the Safety Assessment of MEtal cooled reactors), the ENEA CIRCE pool facility will be refurbished to host the HERO (Heavy liquid mEtal pRessurized water cOoled tubes) test section to investigate a bundle of seven full scale bayonet tubes in ALFRED-like thermal hydraulics conditions. The aim of this work is to verify thermo-fluid dynamic performance of HERO during the transition from nominal to natural circulation condition. The simulations have been performed with RELAP5-3D© by using the validated geometrical model of the previous CIRCE-ICE test section [2], in which the preceding heat exchanger has been replaced by the new bayonet bundle model. Several calculations have been carried out to identify thermal hydraulics performance in different steady state conditions. The previous calculations represent the starting points of transient tests aimed at investigating the operation in natural circulation. The transient tests consist of the protected loss of primary pump, obtained by reducing feed-water mass flow to simulate the activation of DHR (Decay Heat Removal) system, and of the loss of DHR function in hot conditions, where feed-water mass flow rate is absent. According to simulations, in nominal conditions, HERO bayonet bundle offers excellent thermal hydraulic behavior and, moreover, it allows the operation in natural circulation.

Porosity evolution in Icelandic hydrothermal systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thien, B.; Kosakowski, G.; Kulik, D. A.

2014-12-01

Mineralogical alteration of reservoir rocks, driven by fluid circulation in natural or enhanced hydrothermal systems, is likely to influence the long-term performance of geothermal power generation. A key factor is the change of porosity due to dissolution of primary minerals and precipitation of secondary phases. Porosity changes will affect fluid circulation and solute transport, which, in turn, influence mineralogical alteration. This study is part of the Sinergia COTHERM project (COmbined hydrological, geochemical and geophysical modeling of geotTHERMal systems, grant number CRSII2_141843/1) that is an integrative research project aimed at improving our understanding of the sub-surface processes in magmatically-driven natural geothermal systems. These are typically high enthalphy systems where a magmatic pluton is located at a few kilometers depth. These shallow plutons increase the geothermal gradient and trigger the circulation of hydrothermal waters with a steam cap forming at shallow depth. Field observations suggest that active and fossil Icelandic hydrothermal systems are built from a superposition of completely altered and completely unaltered layers. With help of 1D and 2D reactive transport models (OpenGeoSys-GEM code), we investigate the reasons for this finding, by studying the mineralogical evolution of protoliths with different initial porosities at different temperatures and pressures, different leaching water composition and gas content, and different porosity geometries (i.e. porous medium versus fractured medium). From this study, we believe that the initial porosity of protoliths and volume changes due to their transformation into secondary minerals are key factors to explain the different alteration extents observed in field studies. We also discuss how precipitation and dissolution kinetics can influence the alteration time scales.

Simulated impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading to Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Saad, David A.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Lorenz, David J

2016-01-01

Phosphorus (P) loading to the Great Lakes has caused various types of eutrophication problems. Future climatic changes may modify this loading because climatic models project changes in future meteorological conditions, especially for the key hydrologic driver — precipitation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to project how P loading may change from the range of projected climatic changes. To project the future response in P loading, the HydroSPARROW approach was developed that links results from two spatially explicit models, the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) transport and fate watershed model and the water-quantity Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS was used to project changes in streamflow throughout the Lake Michigan Basin using downscaled meteorological data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Downscaled GCMs project a + 2.1 to + 4.0 °C change in average-annual air temperature (+ 2.6 °C average) and a − 5.1% to + 16.7% change in total annual precipitation (+ 5.1% average) for this geographic area by the middle of this century (2045–2065) and larger changes by the end of the century. The climatic changes by mid-century are projected to result in a − 21.2% to + 8.9% change in total annual streamflow (− 1.8% average) and a − 29.6% to + 17.2% change in total annual P loading (− 3.1% average). Although the average projected changes in streamflow and P loading are relatively small for the entire basin, considerable variability exists spatially and among GCMs because of their variability in projected future precipitation.

Performance evaluation approach for the supercritical helium cold circulators of ITER

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vaghela, H.; Sarkar, B.; Bhattacharya, R.

2014-01-29

The ITER project design foresees Supercritical Helium (SHe) forced flow cooling for the main cryogenic components, namely, the superconducting (SC) magnets and cryopumps (CP). Therefore, cold circulators have been selected to provide the required SHe mass flow rate to cope with specific operating conditions and technical requirements. Considering the availability impacts of such machines, it has been decided to perform evaluation tests of the cold circulators at operating conditions prior to the series production in order to minimize the project technical risks. A proposal has been conceptualized, evaluated and simulated to perform representative tests of the full scale SHe coldmore » circulators. The objectives of the performance tests include the validation of normal operating condition, transient and off-design operating modes as well as the efficiency measurement. A suitable process and instrumentation diagram of the test valve box (TVB) has been developed to implement the tests at the required thermodynamic conditions. The conceptual engineering design of the TVB has been developed along with the required thermal analysis for the normal operating conditions to support the performance evaluation of the SHe cold circulator.« less

Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

1995-01-01

In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

2018-04-01

In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

IS-ENES project management - lessons learnt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parinet, Marie; Guglielmo, Francesca; Joussaume, Sylvie

2017-04-01

IS-ENES is the distributed e-infrastructure of models, model data and metadata of the European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES). It has benefitted from two EC FP7 grants and aims towards further European and national funding to achieve sustainability. We highlight here several challenges related to project management that have risen in the course of these two project-phases spanning 8 years. Some challenges are related to the heterogeneity of the activities within IS-ENES, with different groups working on very diverse activities, not necessarily strictly interdependent. An immediate consequence is the need of implementing and setting up in early phases of the project efficient collection and circulation of information to preserve and reinforce the systemic view of the infrastructure as a whole and the pursuit of common goals, including coordinated provision of services. Toward and beyond such common goals, managing IS-ENES, covering both scientific and more strictly management-related aspects, implies a double-paced approach: besides setting up efficient project workflow, there is the need of setting up longer term objectives. This implies, within the project lifetime, to elaborate and implement a coherent organizational (consistent with scientific goals, funding schemes, research and technology landscape) strategy to pursue these goals beyond the project itself. Furthermore, a series of more generic project management challenges will also be listed and can be gathered around 3 main objectives: ease the internal processes in order to optimize the work, anticipate delays and budget issues, and motivate the project teams by ensuring an efficient internal and external communication.

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Circulation pattern-based assessment of projected climate change for a catchment in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Jódar, Jorge; Carrera, Jesús

2018-01-01

We present an approach for evaluating catchment-scale hydro-meteorological impacts of projected climate change based on the atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) of a region. Our approach is motivated by the conjecture that GCMs are especially good at simulating the atmospheric circulation patterns that control moisture transport, and which can be expected to change in response to global warming. In support of this, we show (for the late 20th century) that GCMs provide much better simulations of ACPs than those of precipitation amount for the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain. For the same period, four of the twenty GCMs participating in the most recent (5th) IPCC Assessment provide quite accurate representations of the spatial patterns of mean sea level pressure, the frequency distribution of ACP type, the 'number of rainy days per month', and the daily 'probability of rain' (they also reproduce the trend of 'wet day amount', though not the actual magnitudes). A consequent analysis of projected trends and changes in hydro-climatic ACPology between the late 20th and 21st Centuries indicates that (1) actual changes appear to be occurring faster than predicted by the models, and (2) for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) the expected decline in precipitation volume is associated mainly with a few specific ACPs (primarily directional flows from the Atlantic Ocean and Cantabric Sea), and with decreasing probability of rain (linked to increasing temperatures) rather than wet day amount. Our approach is a potentially more insightful alternative for catchment-scale climate impacts assessments than the common approach of statistical downscaling and bias correction.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daleu, C. L.; Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.

Here, as part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak-temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistentmore » implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.« less

River-Lake Mixing, Eutrophication, and Hypoxia in Green Bay, Lake Michigan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klump, J. V.; LaBuhn, S.

2014-12-01

Despite being a freshwater system, Green Bay in Lake Michigan, has many estuarine-like characteristics, including water mass exchange and the mixing between riverine inflow and the open lake. The bay has experienced excessive nutrient loading for decades resulting in hyper-eutrophic conditions and extensive algal blooms. Combined with a restricted, estuarine like circulation, this has resulted in the reoccurrence of late summer "dead zones" and wide spread bottom water oxygen concentrations below water quality standards. The onset of hypoxia is clearly related to thermal stratification which, in Green Bay, arises both from direct atmospheric forcing, i.e. low winds, high air temperatures, and increased solar radiation, and from indirect atmospheric forcing that drives circulation patterns resulting in the southerly incursion of cooler Lake Michigan bottom waters onto highly reducing organic rich sediment deposits. This circulation pattern can re-stratify a well-mixed water column within hours, and can set up stable stratified water column conditions that persist for days to weeks during which time sediment oxygen demand rates are sufficient to completely deplete hypolimnetic oxygen. Modeling hypoxia, therefore, is somewhat more complex than in a system which is driven largely or solely by seasonal thermal fluctuations. Understanding both the general circulation and the onset and duration of stratification in the bay are essential to determining the potential for hypoxic conditions to improve or worsen, particularly in the face of climate change projections of warmer conditions, less ice cover, and an earlier summer. Using D and O-18 isotopes in water, Rn-222, and dissolved methane as tracers we examine the relationship between river/lake mixing, transport rates and oxygen depletion in an attempt to verify the spatial and temporal scales of hypoxia in the bay, and estimate the potential impact of future climate change projections.

Modeling nonbreeding distributions of shorebirds and waterfowl in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reese, Gordon; Skagen, Susan K.

2017-01-01

To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eBird citizen-science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land-use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981–2010 (hindcast) and 2041–2070 (forecast) in “model space.” Projected changes in shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species-specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long-distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from −0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios.

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.

PubMed

Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Byfield, Valborg; Cochrane, Kevern; Coward, Andrew C; Salim, Shyam S; Gasalla, Maria A; Henson, Stephanie A; Hobday, Alistair J; Pecl, Gretta T; Sauer, Warwick H; Roberts, Michael J

2016-06-01

Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2 -driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Local and Remote Influences on Vertical Wind Shear over the Northern Tropical Atlantic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saravanan, R.; Zhu, X.

2009-12-01

Vertical wind shear is one of the most important parameters controlling the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes. It has been argued that in global warming scenarios, the mechanical effect of changing vertical wind shear may even trump the thermodynamic effect of increasing Atlantic sea surface temperatures, when it comes to projected trends in Atlantic hurricane activity. Despite its importance, little is known about the connection between vertical shear in the north Atlantic region and the global atmospheric circulation, apart from the well-known positive correlation with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we analyze the statistical relationship between vertical shear and features of the large-scale circulation such as the distribution of sea surface temperature and vertical motion. We examine whether this relationship is different on interannual timescales associated with ENSO as compared to the decadal timescales associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We also investigate how well the global general circulation models manage to simulate the observed vertical shear in this region, and its relationship to the large-scale circulation. Our analyses reveal an interesting sensitivity to air-sea coupling in model simulations of vertical shear. Another interesting property of vertical shear, as defined in the context of hurricane studies, is that it is positive definite, rather like precipitation. This means that it has a very nongaussian probability distribution on short timescales. We analyze how this nongaussianity changes when averaged over longer timescales.

Gateway Arch Circulator Conceptual Feasibility Study : Jefferson National Expansion Memorial

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-01

The Jefferson National Expansion Memorial (JEFF) is undergoing major design changes as part of the City Arch River 2015 project (CAR) that will impact access for park visitors. The park and stakeholders are considering a circulator system to facilita...

Statistical downscaling of sub-daily (6-hour) temperature in Romania, by means of artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cǎrbunaru, Felicia

2016-04-01

The role of statistical downscaling is to model the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and climatic variables on a regional and sub-regional scale, making use of the predictions of future circulation generated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) in order to capture the effects of climate change on smaller areas. The study presents a statistical downscaling model based on a neural network-based approach, by means of multi-layer perceptron networks. Sub-daily temperature data series from 81 meteorological stations over Romania, with full data records are used as predictands. As large-scale predictor, the NCEP/NCAD air temperature data at 850 hPa over the domain 20-30E / 40-50N was used, at a spatial resolution of 2.5×2.5 degrees. The period 1961-1990 was used for calibration, while the validation was realized over the 1991-2010 interval. Further, in order to estimate future changes in air temperature for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, air temperature data at 850 hPa corresponding to the IPCC A1B scenario was extracted from the CNCM33 model (Meteo-France) and used as predictor. This work has been realized within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian Executive Agency for Higher Education Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI).

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

2015-01-01

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

A comparison of metrics for assessing state-of-the-art climate models and implications for probabilistic projections of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ring, Christoph; Pollinger, Felix; Kaspar-Ott, Irena; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Paeth, Heiko

2018-03-01

A major task of climate science are reliable projections of climate change for the future. To enable more solid statements and to decrease the range of uncertainty, global general circulation models and regional climate models are evaluated based on a 2 × 2 contingency table approach to generate model weights. These weights are compared among different methodologies and their impact on probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation changes is investigated. Simulated seasonal precipitation and temperature for both 50-year trends and climatological means are assessed at two spatial scales: in seven study regions around the globe and in eight sub-regions of the Mediterranean area. Overall, 24 models of phase 3 and 38 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project altogether 159 transient simulations of precipitation and 119 of temperature from four emissions scenarios are evaluated against the ERA-20C reanalysis over the 20th century. The results show high conformity with previous model evaluation studies. The metrics reveal that mean of precipitation and both temperature mean and trend agree well with the reference dataset and indicate improvement for the more recent ensemble mean, especially for temperature. The method is highly transferrable to a variety of further applications in climate science. Overall, there are regional differences of simulation quality, however, these are less pronounced than those between the results for 50-year mean and trend. The trend results are suitable for assigning weighting factors to climate models. Yet, the implications for probabilistic climate projections is strictly dependent on the region and season.

Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chung, Uran; Mack, Liz; Yun, Jin I.; Kim, Soo-Hyung

2011-01-01

Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis ‘Yoshino’ and Prunus serrulata ‘Kwanzan’) in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r2 = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r2 = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = −2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s ) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines. PMID:22087317

Understanding and Portraying the Global Atmospheric Circulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrington, John, Jr.; Oliver, John E.

2000-01-01

Examines teaching models of atmospheric circulation and resultant surface pressure patterns, focusing on the three-cell model and the meaning of meridional circulation as related to middle and high latitudes. Addresses the failure of the three-cell model to explain seasonal variations in atmospheric circulation. Suggests alternative models. (CMK)

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

2017-02-01

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Diagnostic Codes Catalogue – metrics, diagnostics and methodologies to evaluate, understand and improve the representation of clouds and cloud feedbacks in climate models

DOE PAGES

Tsushima, Yoko; Brient, Florent; Klein, Stephen A.; ...

2017-11-27

The CFMIP Diagnostic Codes Catalogue assembles cloud metrics, diagnostics and methodologies, together with programs to diagnose them from general circulation model (GCM) outputs written by various members of the CFMIP community. This aims to facilitate use of the diagnostics by the wider community studying climate and climate change. Here, this paper describes the diagnostics and metrics which are currently in the catalogue, together with examples of their application to model evaluation studies and a summary of some of the insights these diagnostics have provided into the main shortcomings in current GCMs. Analysis of outputs from CFMIP and CMIP6 experiments willmore » also be facilitated by the sharing of diagnostic codes via this catalogue. Any code which implements diagnostics relevant to analysing clouds – including cloud–circulation interactions and the contribution of clouds to estimates of climate sensitivity in models – and which is documented in peer-reviewed studies, can be included in the catalogue. We very much welcome additional contributions to further support community analysis of CMIP6 outputs.« less

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Diagnostic Codes Catalogue – metrics, diagnostics and methodologies to evaluate, understand and improve the representation of clouds and cloud feedbacks in climate models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsushima, Yoko; Brient, Florent; Klein, Stephen A.

The CFMIP Diagnostic Codes Catalogue assembles cloud metrics, diagnostics and methodologies, together with programs to diagnose them from general circulation model (GCM) outputs written by various members of the CFMIP community. This aims to facilitate use of the diagnostics by the wider community studying climate and climate change. Here, this paper describes the diagnostics and metrics which are currently in the catalogue, together with examples of their application to model evaluation studies and a summary of some of the insights these diagnostics have provided into the main shortcomings in current GCMs. Analysis of outputs from CFMIP and CMIP6 experiments willmore » also be facilitated by the sharing of diagnostic codes via this catalogue. Any code which implements diagnostics relevant to analysing clouds – including cloud–circulation interactions and the contribution of clouds to estimates of climate sensitivity in models – and which is documented in peer-reviewed studies, can be included in the catalogue. We very much welcome additional contributions to further support community analysis of CMIP6 outputs.« less

Wind and Wave Driven Nearshore Circulation at Cape Hatteras Point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, N.; Voulgaris, G.; Warner, J. C.; List, J. H.

2012-12-01

We have used a measurement and modeling approach to identify hydrodynamic processes responsible for alongshore transport of sediment that can support the maintenance of Diamond Shoals, NC, a large inner-shelf sedimentary convergent feature. As a part of Carolina Coastal Change Processes project, a one month field experiment was conducted around Cape Hatteras point during February, 2010. The instrumentation consisted of 15 acoustic current meters (measuring pressure and velocity profile) deployed in water depths varying from 3-10m and a very high frequency (VHF) beam forming radar system providing surface waves and currents with a resolution of 150 m and a spatial coverage of 10-15 km2. Analysis of field observation suggests that wind-driven circulation and littoral current dominate surf zone and inner shelf processes at least at an order higher than tidally rectified flows. However, the data analysis identified that relevant processes like non-linear advective acceleration, pressure gradient and vortex-force (due to interaction between wave-induced drift and mean flow vorticity), may be significant, but were not assessed accurately due to instrument location and accuracy. To obtain a deeper physical understanding of the hydrodynamics in this study-site, we applied a three-dimensional Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave_Sediment-Transport (COAWST) numerical model. The COAWST modeling system is comprised of nested, coupled, three-dimensional ocean-circulation model (ROMS) and wave propagation model (SWAN), configured for the study site to simulate wave height, direction, period and mean current velocities (both Eulerian and Lagrangian). The nesting follows a two-way grid refinement process for the circulation module, and one-way for the wave model. The coarsest parent grid resolved processes on the spatial and temporal scales of mid-shelf to inner-shelf, and subsequent child grids evolved at inner-shelf and surf zone scales. Preliminary results show that the model successfully reproduces wind-driven circulation and littoral currents. Furthermore, model simulation provides evidence for (a) circulation pattern suggesting a mechanism for sediment movement from littoral zone to the Diamond Shoals complex; (b) Diamond shoals complex acting as independent coastline, which restricts the littoral currents to follow the coastline orientation around Cape Hatteras point. As a part of this study, simulated hydrodynamic parameters will be validated against field observations of wave height and direction and Eulerian velocities from acoustic current meters, and sea surface maps of wave height and Lagrangian flows provided by the VHF radar. Moreover, the model results will be analyzed to (a) identify the significance of the terms in momentum balance which are not estimated accurately through field observations; (b) provide a quasi-quantitative estimate of sediment transport contributing to shoal building process.

Some remarks on using circulation classifications to evaluate circulation model and atmospheric reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

2017-04-01

Automated classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns represent a tool widely used for studying the circulation in both the real atmosphere, represented by atmospheric reanalyses, and in circulation model outputs. It is well known that the results of studies utilizing one of these methods are influenced by several subjective choices, of which one of the most crucial is the selection of the method itself. Authors of the present study used eight methods from the COST733 classification software (Grosswettertypes, two variants of Jenkinson-Collison, Lund, T-mode PCA with oblique rotation of principal components, k-medoids, k-means with differing starting partitions, and SANDRA) to assess the winter 1961-2000 daily sea level pressure patterns in five reanalysis datasets (ERA-40, NCEP-1, JRA-55, 20CRv2, and ERA-20C), as well as in the historical runs and 21st century projections of an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs. The classification methods were quite consistent in displaying the strongest biases in GCM simulations. However, the results also showed that multiple classifications are required to quantify the biases in certain types of circulation (e.g., zonal circulation or blocking-like patterns). There was no sign that any method should have a tendency to over- or underestimate the biases in circulation type frequency. The bias found by a particular method for a particular domain clearly reflects the ability of the algorithm to detect groups of similar patterns within the data space, and whether these groups do or do not differ one dataset to another is to a large extend coincidental. There were, nevertheless, systematic differences between groups of methods that use some form of correlation to classify the patterns to circulation types (CTs) and those which use the Euclidean distance. The comparison of reanalyses, which was conducted over eight European domains, showed that there is even a weak negative correlation between the average differences of CT frequency found by cluster analysis methods on one hand, and the remaining methods on the other. This suggests that groups of different methods capture different kinds of errors and that averaging the results obtained by an ensemble of methods very likely leads to an underestimation of the errors actually present in the data.

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

PubMed Central

Allen, Robert J.; Luptowitz, Rainer

2017-01-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century. PMID:28681837

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Robert J.; Luptowitz, Rainer

2017-07-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

A 4 U Laser Heterodyne Radiometer for Methane (CH4) and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Measurements from an Occultation-Viewing CubSat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Emily L.; DiGregorio, A. J.; Riot, Vincent J.; Ammons, Mark S.; Bruner, WIlliam W.; Carter, Darrell; Mao, Jianping; Ramanathan, Anand; Strahan, Susan E.; Oman, Luke D.;

Ocean dynamics in the Nordic Seas using satellite altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pettersson, Lasse H.; Johannessen, O. M.; Olaussen, T. I.

1991-01-01

The main objective of this TOPEX/POSEIDON project is to integrate the accurately measured sea surface topography, as resolved by both TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimeters, into the above-mentioned quantitative studies of the short- and long-term variations in the mesoscale ocean dynamics of the Nordic Seas south of 66 deg N. This implies: (1) comparison and validation of the capability to resolve the general basin-scale circulation and the mesoscale variability by, respectively, radar altimeters and numerical ocean circulation models; (2) calibration and validation of the altimeter-derived sea surface topography against in situ measurements from research vessels and moorings, particularly under extreme wind and wave conditions; and (3) improved monitoring and understanding of the flux variations between the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas, both on the short and seasonal time scales.

The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) project: a summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, Ed; Day, Jonny; Tietsche, Steffen

2016-04-01

Recent years have seen significant developments in seasonal-to-interannual timescale climate prediction capabilities. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had not been assessed. We describe a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Inter-annual TimEscales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Here we provide a summary and update of the project's results which include: (1) quantifying the predictability of Arctic climate, especially sea ice; (2) the state-dependence of this predictability, finding that extreme years are potentially more predictable than neutral years; (3) analysing a spring 'predictability barrier' to skillful forecasts; (4) initial sea ice thickness information provides much of the skill for summer forecasts; (5) quantifying the sources of error growth and uncertainty in Arctic predictions. The dataset is now publicly available.

Climate-change driven range shifts of anchovy biomass projected by bio-physical coupling individual based model in the marginal seas of East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Sukgeun; Pang, Ig-Chan; Lee, Joon-ho; Lee, Kyunghwan

2016-12-01

Recent studies in the western North Pacific reported a declining standing stock biomass of anchovy ( Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and a climate-driven southward shift of anchovy catch in Korean waters. We investigated the effects of a warming ocean on the latitudinal shift of anchovy catch by developing and applying individual-based models (IBMs) based on a regional ocean circulation model and an IPCC climate change scenario. Despite the greater uncertainty, our two IBMs projected that, by the 2030s, the strengthened Tsushima warm current in the Korea Strait and the East Sea, driven by global warming, and the subsequent confinement of the relatively cold water masses within the Yellow Sea will decrease larval anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea, but will increase it in the Korea Strait and the East Sea. The decreasing trend of anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea was reproduced by our models, but further validation and enhancement of the models is required together with extended ichthyoplankton surveys to understand and reliably project range shifts of anchovy and the impacts such range shifts will have on the marine ecosystems and fisheries in the region.

Test of High-resolution Global and Regional Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Nikulin, Grigory; Hansson, Ulf; Kjellström, Erik; Raj, Jerry; Bangalath, Hamza; Osipov, Sergey

2014-05-01

In scope of CORDEX project we have simulated the past (1975-2005) and future (2006-2050) climates using the GFDL global high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM) and the Rossby Center nested regional model RCA4 for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Both global and nested runs were performed with roughly the same spatial resolution of 25 km in latitude and longitude, and were driven by the 2°x2.5°-resolution fields from GFDL ESM2M IPCC AR5 runs. The global HIRAM simulations could naturally account for interaction of regional processes with the larger-scale circulation features like Indian Summer Monsoon, which is lacking from regional model setup. Therefore in this study we specifically address the consistency of "global" and "regional" downscalings. The performance of RCA4, HIRAM, and ESM2M is tested based on mean, extreme, trends, seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface temperature, precipitation, and winds. The impact of climate change on dust storm activity, extreme precipitation and water resources is specifically addressed. We found that the global and regional climate projections appear to be quite consistent for the modeled period and differ more significantly from ESM2M than between each other.

Sensitivity of Precipitation in Coupled Land-Atmosphere Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neelin, David; Zeng, N.; Suarez, M.; Koster, R.

2004-01-01

The project objective was to understand mechanisms by which atmosphere-land-ocean processes impact precipitation in the mean climate and interannual variations, focusing on tropical and subtropical regions. A combination of modeling tools was used: an intermediate complexity land-atmosphere model developed at UCLA known as the QTCM and the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Program general circulation model (NSIPP GCM). The intermediate complexity model was used to develop hypotheses regarding the physical mechanisms and theory for the interplay of large-scale dynamics, convective heating, cloud radiative effects and land surface feedbacks. The theoretical developments were to be confronted with diagnostics from the more complex GCM to validate or modify the theory.

Early Detection of NSCLC Using Stromal Markers in Peripheral Blood

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

circulating myeloid cells, flow cytometry, RNA -sequencing, expression profiling. 3. ACCOMPLISHMENTS:  What were the major goals of the project...Subtask 2: Flow cytometry sorting of circulating myeloid cells. Subtask 3: RNA -Sequencing Subtask 4: RNA -seq data analysis Subtask 5: Feasible RT-PCR...accomplished the patient recruitment, flow cytometry sorting of circulating myeloid cells, RNA -sequencing of the samples. During the RNA - seq data analysis, we

Response of the North Atlantic dynamic sea level and circulation to Greenland meltwater and climate change in an eddy-permitting ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saenko, Oleg A.; Yang, Duo; Myers, Paul G.

2017-10-01

The response of the North Atlantic dynamic sea surface height (SSH) and ocean circulation to Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) meltwater fluxes is investigated using a high-resolution model. The model is forced with either present-day-like or projected warmer climate conditions. In general, the impact of meltwater on the North Atlantic SSH and ocean circulation depends on the surface climate. In the two major regions of deep water formation, the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, the basin-mean SSH increases with the increase of the GrIS meltwater flux. This SSH increase correlates with the decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, while in the Labrador Sea the warming forcing and GrIS meltwater input lead to sea level rise, in the Nordic Seas these two forcings have an opposite influence on the convective mixing and basin-mean SSH (relative to the global mean). The warming leads to less sea-ice cover in the Nordic Seas, which favours stronger surface heat loss and deep mixing, lowering the SSH and generally increasing the transport of the East Greenland Current. In the Labrador Sea, the increased SSH and weaker deep convection are reflected in the decreased transport of the Labrador Current (LC), which closes the subpolar gyre in the west. Among the two major components of the LC transport, the thermohaline and bottom transports, the former is less sensitive to the GrIS meltwater fluxes under the warmer climate. The SSH difference across the LC, which is a component of the bottom velocity, correlates with the long-term mean AMOC rate.

Interannual Variability of Martian Global Dust Storms: Simulations with a Low-Order Model of the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pankine, A. A.; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

2002-01-01

We present simulations of the interannual variability of martian global dust storms (GDSs) with a simplified low-order model (LOM) of the general circulation. The simplified model allows one to conduct computationally fast long-term simulations of the martian climate system. The LOM is constructed by Galerkin projection of a 2D (zonally averaged) general circulation model (GCM) onto a truncated set of basis functions. The resulting LOM consists of 12 coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing atmospheric dynamics and dust transport within the Hadley cell. The forcing of the model is described by simplified physics based on Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction. The atmosphere and surface are coupled: atmospheric heating depends on the dustiness of the atmosphere, and the surface dust source depends on the strength of the atmospheric winds. Parameters of the model are tuned to fit the output of the NASA AMES GCM and the fit is generally very good. Interannual variability of GDSs is possible in the IBM, but only when stochastic forcing is added to the model. The stochastic forcing could be provided by transient weather systems or some surface process such as redistribution of the sand particles in storm generating zones on the surface. The results are sensitive to the value of the saltation threshold, which hints at a possible feedback between saltation threshold and dust storm activity. According to this hypothesis, erodable material builds up its a result of a local process, whose effect is to lower the saltation threshold until a GDS occurs. The saltation threshold adjusts its value so that dust storms are barely able to occur.

An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

Relationship between climate extremes in Romania and their connection to large-scale air circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbu, Nicu; Ştefan, Sabina

2015-04-01

The aim of this paper is to investigate the connection between climate extremes (temperature and precipitation) in Romania and large-scale air circulation. Daily observational data of maximum air temperature and amount of precipitation for the period 1961-2010 were used to compute two seasonal indices associated with temperature and precipitation, quantifying their frequency, as follows: frequency of very warm days (FTmax90 ≥ 90th percentile), frequency of very wet days (FPp90; daily precipitation amount ≥ 90th percentile). Seasonally frequency of circulation types were calculated from daily circulation types determined by using two objective catalogues (GWT - GrossWetter-Typen and WLK - WetterLargenKlassifikation) from the COST733Action. Daily reanalysis data sets (sea level pressure, geopotential height at 925 and 500 hPa, u and v components of wind vector at 700 hPa and precipitable water content for the entire atmospheric column) build up by NCEP/NCAR, with 2.5°/2.5° lat/lon spatial resolution, were used to determine the circulation types. In order to select the optimal domain size related to the FTmax90 and the FPp90, the explained variance (EV) has been used. The EV determines the relation between the variance among circulation types and the total variance of the variable under consideration. This method quantifies the discriminatory power of a classification. The relationships between climate extremes in Romania and large-scale air circulation were investigated by using multiple linear regression model (MLRM), the predictands are FTmax90 and FPp90 and the circulation types were used as predictors. In order to select the independent predictors to build the MLRM the collinearity and multicollinearity analysis were performed. The study period is dividend in two periods: the period 1961-2000 is used to train the MLRM and the period 2001-2010 is used to validate the MLRM. The analytical relationship obtained by using MLRM can be used for future projection of the considered predictand. Preliminari results sows that in case of the FTmax90 the optimal domain size must by larger compared to TPp90. We have obtained some good correlation between registered and estimated values of the FTmax90 and the TPp90. Author Barbu N. work was supported by the strategic grant POSDRU/159/1.5/9.137750, "Project Doctoral and Postdoctoral programs support for increased competitiveness in Exact Sciences research" co-financed by the European Social Founds within the Sectoral Operational Program Human Resources Development 2007 - 2013.

Atmospheric circulation types and extreme areal precipitation in southern central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobeit, Jucundus; Homann, Markus; Philipp, Andreas; Beck, Christoph

2017-04-01

Gridded daily rainfall data for southern central Europe are aggregated to regions of similar precipitation variability by means of S-mode principal component analyses separately for the meteorological seasons. Atmospheric circulation types (CTs) are derived by a particular clustering technique including large-scale fields of SLP, vertical wind and relative humidity at the 700 hPa level as well as the regional rainfall time series. Multiple regression models with monthly CT frequencies as predictors are derived for monthly frequencies and amounts of regional precipitation extremes (beyond the 95 % percentile). Using predictor output from different global climate models (ECHAM6, ECHAM5, EC-EARTH) for different scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5, A1B) and two projection periods (2021-2050, 2071-2100) leads to assessments of future changes in regional precipitation extremes. Most distinctive changes are indicated for the summer season with mainly increasing extremes for the earlier period and widespread decreasing extremes towards the end of the 21st century, mostly for the strong scenario. Considerable uncertainties arise from the predictor use of different global climate models, especially during the winter and spring seasons.

Determination and impact of surface radiative processes for TOGA COARE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, Judith A.; Ackerman, Thomas; Rossow, William B.; Webster, Peter J.

1991-01-01

Experiments using atmospheric general circulation models have shown that the atmospheric circulation is very sensitive to small changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific Ocean warm pool region. The mutual sensitivity of the ocean and the atmosphere in the warm pool region places stringent requirements on models of the coupled ocean atmosphere system. At present, the situation is such that diagnostic studies using available data sets have been unable to balance the surface energy budget in the warm pool region to better than 50 to 80 W/sq m. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) is an observation and modelling program that aims specifically at the elucidation of the physical process which determine the mean and transient state of the warm pool region and the manner in which the warm pool interacts with the global ocean and atmosphere. This project focuses on one very important aspect of the ocean atmosphere interface component of TOGA COARE, namely the temporal and spatial variability of surface radiative fluxes in the warm pool region.

Understanding uncertainty in precipitation changes in a balanced perturbed-physics ensemble under multiple climate forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Ingram, W.; Allen, M. R.; Lowe, J.

2013-12-01

Temperature and precipitation patterns are the climate variables with the greatest impacts on both natural and human systems. Due to the small spatial scales and the many interactions involved in the global hydrological cycle, in general circulation models (GCMs) representations of precipitation changes are subject to considerable uncertainty. Quantifying and understanding the causes of uncertainty (and identifying robust features of predictions) in both global and local precipitation change is an essential challenge of climate science. We have used the huge distributed computing capacity of the climateprediction.net citizen science project to examine parametric uncertainty in an ensemble of 20,000 perturbed-physics versions of the HadCM3 general circulation model. The ensemble has been selected to have a control climate in top-of-atmosphere energy balance [Yamazaki et al. 2013, J.G.R.]. We force this ensemble with several idealised climate-forcing scenarios including carbon dioxide step and transient profiles, solar radiation management geoengineering experiments with stratospheric aerosols, and short-lived climate forcing agents. We will present the results from several of these forcing scenarios under GCM parametric uncertainty. We examine the global mean precipitation energy budget to understand the robustness of a simple non-linear global precipitation model [Good et al. 2012, Clim. Dyn.] as a better explanation of precipitation changes in transient climate projections under GCM parametric uncertainty than a simple linear tropospheric energy balance model. We will also present work investigating robust conclusions about precipitation changes in a balanced ensemble of idealised solar radiation management scenarios [Kravitz et al. 2011, Atmos. Sci. Let.].

Stratiform clouds and their interaction with atmospheric motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, John H. E.; Shirer, Hampton N.

1990-01-01

During 1989 and 1990, the researchers saw the publication of two papers and the submission of a third for review on work supported primarily by the previous contract, NAS8-36150; the delivery of an invited talk at the SIAM Conference on Dynamical Systems in Orlando, Florida; and the start of two new projects on the radiative effects of stratocumulus on the large-scale flow. The published papers discuss aspects of stratocumulus circulations (Laufersweiler and Shirer, 1989) and the Hadley to Rossby regime transition in rotating spherical systems (Higgins and Shirer, 1990). The submitted paper (Haack and Shirer, 1990) discusses a new nonlinear model of roll circulations that are forced both dynamically and thermally. The invited paper by H. N. Shirer and R. Wells presented an objective means for determining appropriate truncation levels for low-order models of flows involving two incommensurate periods; this work has application to the Hadley to Rossby transition problem in quasi-geostrophic flows (Moroz and Holmes, 1984). The new projects involve the development of a multi-layered quasi-geostrophic channel model for study of the modulation of the large-scale flow by stratocumulus clouds that typically develop off the coasts of continents. In this model the diabatic forcing in the lowest layer will change in response to the (parameterized) development of extensive fields of stratocumulus clouds. To guide creation of this parameterization scheme, researchers are producing climatologies of stratocumulus frequency and the authors correlate these frequencies with the phasing and amplitude of the large-scale flow pattern. Researchers discuss the above topics in greater detail.

Interannual variability of March snow mass over Northern Eurasia and its relation to the concurrent and preceding surface air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Kunhui

2018-06-01

The interannual variability of March snow water equivalent (SWE) in Northern Eurasia and its influencing factors are studied. The surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation are the dominant factors for the snow accumulation in northern Europe and the remaining region, respectively. The strongest contribution of SAT to snow accumulation is mainly found in those months with moderate mean SAT. The strongest contribution of precipitation is not collocated with the climatological maxima in precipitation. The leading mode of March SWE variability is obtained and characterized by a spatial dipole. Anomalies in atmospheric water vapor divergence, storm activity and the associated atmospheric circulation can explain many of the associated precipitation and SAT features. Anomalies in autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents Sea and Kara Sea (B/K Sea) and a dipole pattern of November snow cover (SC) in Eurasia are also observed. The atmospheric circulation anomalies that resemble a negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) are strongly projected onto the wintertime atmospheric circulation. Both observations and model experiment support that the autumn B/K Sea SIC has some impacts on the autumn and AO/NAO-like wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns. The dipole pattern of November Eurasian SC seems to be strongly forced by the autumn B/K Sea SIC and its feedback to the atmospheric circulation is important. Therefore, the impacts of autumn B/K Sea SIC on the autumn/wintertime atmospheric circulation and thus the March SWE variability may be modulated by both constructive and destructive interference of autumn Eurasian SC.

Recent slowing of Atlantic overturning circulation as a recovery from earlier strengthening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Laura C.; Peterson, K. Andrew; Roberts, Chris D.; Wood, Richard A.

2016-07-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has weakened substantially over the past decade. Some weakening may already have occurred over the past century, and global climate models project further weakening in response to anthropogenic climate change. Such a weakening could have significant impacts on the surface climate. However, ocean model simulations based on historical conditions have often found an increase in overturning up to the mid-1990s, followed by a decrease. It is therefore not clear whether the observed weakening over the past decade is part of decadal variability or a persistent weakening. Here we examine a state-of-the-art global-ocean reanalysis product, GloSea5, which covers the years 1989 to 2015 and closely matches observations of the AMOC at 26.5° N, capturing the interannual variability and decadal trend with unprecedented accuracy. The reanalysis data place the ten years of observations--April 2004 to February 2014--into a longer-term context and suggest that the observed decrease in the overturning circulation is consistent with a recovery following a previous increase. We find that density anomalies that propagate southwards from the Labrador Sea are the most likely cause of these variations. We conclude that decadal variability probably played a key role in the decline of the AMOC observed over the past decade.

Impact of small-scale structures on estuarine circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhuo; Zhang, Yinglong J.; Wang, Harry V.; Huang, Hai; Wang, Zhengui; Ye, Fei; Sisson, Mac

2018-05-01

We present a novel and challenging application of a 3D estuary-shelf model to the study of the collective impact of many small-scale structures (bridge pilings of 1 m × 2 m in size) on larger-scale circulation in a tributary (James River) of Chesapeake Bay. We first demonstrate that the model is capable of effectively transitioning grid resolution from 400 m down to 1 m near the pilings without introducing undue numerical artifact. We then show that despite their small sizes and collectively small area as compared to the total channel cross-sectional area, the pilings exert a noticeable impact on the large-scale circulation, and also create a rich structure of vortices and wakes around the pilings. As a result, the water quality and local sedimentation patterns near the bridge piling area are likely to be affected as well. However, when evaluating over the entire waterbody of the project area, the near field effects are weighed with the areal percentage which is small compared to that for the larger unaffected area, and therefore the impact on the lower James River as a whole becomes relatively insignificant. The study highlights the importance of the use of high resolution in assessing the near-field impact of structures.

Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, S.; Caesar, L.; Feulner, G.; Robinson, A.; Saba, V. S.

2017-12-01

The overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean (AMOC) has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution over the past hundred years or so is poorly known for lack of direct measurements. We use a high-resolution global climate model to derive a characteristic spatial and seasonal fingerprint of AMOC changes and compare this to the observed linear temperature trend since 1870. Both the model and observations show a remarkably similar pattern of a cooling in the subpolar gyre region (most pronounced for the November to May season) and a warming in the Gulf Stream region which in their combination can only be explained by a reduction in the AMOC. We explain the mechanisms that link the pattern to an AMOC slowdown, and use an ensemble of CMIP5 simulations to calibrate the observed decline. This suggests a weakening of the AMOC by 3 Sv ( 16%) since the mid-20th Century. Its recent evolution is consistent with direct measurements in the RAPID project and reaches record low values in recent years.

Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Cornford, Stephen L.; Durand, Gaël

Coupled ice sheet-ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computationalmore » experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet-ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.« less

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

PubMed

Hemming, Debbie; Buontempo, Carlo; Burke, Eleanor; Collins, Mat; Kaye, Neil

2010-11-28

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

PubMed

Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

2010-08-01

*Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.

The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Tietsche, S.; Collins, M.; Goessling, H. F.; Guemas, V.; Guillory, A.; Hurlin, W. J.; Ishii, M.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Sigmond, M.; Tatebe, H.; Hawkins, E.

2015-10-01

Recent decades have seen significant developments in seasonal-to-interannual timescale climate prediction capabilities. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had not been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Here we present a description of the archived data set (which is available at the British Atmospheric Data Centre) and an update of the project's results. Although designed to address Arctic predictability, this data set could also be used to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate variability on these timescales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Animating climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DaPonte, John S.; Sadowski, Thomas; Thomas, Paul

2006-05-01

This paper describes a collaborative project conducted by the Computer Science Department at Southern Connecticut State University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS). Animations of output from a climate simulation math model used at GISS to predict rainfall and circulation have been produced for West Africa from June to September 2002. These early results have assisted scientists at GISS in evaluating the accuracy of the RM3 climate model when compared to similar results obtained from satellite imagery. The results presented below will be refined to better meet the needs of GISS scientists and will be expanded to cover other geographic regions for a variety of time frames.

Evaluating the utility of dynamical downscaling in agricultural impacts projections

PubMed Central

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua; McInerney, David; Best, Neil; Foster, Ian; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

2014-01-01

Interest in estimating the potential socioeconomic costs of climate change has led to the increasing use of dynamical downscaling—nested modeling in which regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with general circulation model (GCM) output—to produce fine-spatial-scale climate projections for impacts assessments. We evaluate here whether this computationally intensive approach significantly alters projections of agricultural yield, one of the greatest concerns under climate change. Our results suggest that it does not. We simulate US maize yields under current and future CO2 concentrations with the widely used Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model, driven by a variety of climate inputs including two GCMs, each in turn downscaled by two RCMs. We find that no climate model output can reproduce yields driven by observed climate unless a bias correction is first applied. Once a bias correction is applied, GCM- and RCM-driven US maize yields are essentially indistinguishable in all scenarios (<10% discrepancy, equivalent to error from observations). Although RCMs correct some GCM biases related to fine-scale geographic features, errors in yield are dominated by broad-scale (100s of kilometers) GCM systematic errors that RCMs cannot compensate for. These results support previous suggestions that the benefits for impacts assessments of dynamically downscaling raw GCM output may not be sufficient to justify its computational demands. Progress on fidelity of yield projections may benefit more from continuing efforts to understand and minimize systematic error in underlying climate projections. PMID:24872455

Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

2013-09-24

Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.

Probabilistic regional climate projection in Japan using a regression model with CMIP5 multi-model ensemble experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishizaki, N. N.; Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.

2016-12-01

We have developed a statistical downscaling method for estimating probabilistic climate projection using CMIP5 multi general circulation models (GCMs). A regression model was established so that the combination of weights of GCMs reflects the characteristics of the variation of observations at each grid point. Cross validations were conducted to select GCMs and to evaluate the regression model to avoid multicollinearity. By using spatially high resolution observation system, we conducted statistically downscaled probabilistic climate projections with 20-km horizontal grid spacing. Root mean squared errors for monthly mean air surface temperature and precipitation estimated by the regression method were the smallest compared with the results derived from a simple ensemble mean of GCMs and a cumulative distribution function based bias correction method. Projected changes in the mean temperature and precipitation were basically similar to those of the simple ensemble mean of GCMs. Mean precipitation was generally projected to increase associated with increased temperature and consequent increased moisture content in the air. Weakening of the winter monsoon may affect precipitation decrease in some areas. Temperature increase in excess of 4 K was expected in most areas of Japan in the end of 21st century under RCP8.5 scenario. The estimated probability of monthly precipitation exceeding 300 mm would increase around the Pacific side during the summer and the Japan Sea side during the winter season. This probabilistic climate projection based on the statistical method can be expected to bring useful information to the impact studies and risk assessments.

Theoretical and numerical investigations towards a new geoid model for the Mediterranean Sea - The GEOMED2 project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barzaghi, Riccardo; Vergos, Georgios S.; Albertella, Alberta; Carrion, Daniela; Cazzaniga, Noemi; Tziavos, Ilias N.; Grigoriadis, Vassilios N.; Natsiopoulos, Dimitrios A.; Bruinsma, Sean; Bonvalot, Sylvain; Lequentrec-Lalancette, Marie-Françoise; Bonnefond, Pascal; Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole; Simav, Mehmet; Yildiz, Hasan; Basic, Tomislav; Gil, Antonio J.

2016-04-01

The unique features of the Mediterranean Sea, with its large gravity variations, complex circulation, and geodynamic peculiarities have always constituted this semi-enclosed sea area as a unique geodetic, geodynamics and ocean laboratory. The main scope of the GEOMED 2 project is the collection of all available gravity, topography/bathymetry and satellite altimetry data in order to improve the representation of the marine geoid and estimate the Mean Dynamic sea surface Topography (MDT) and the circulation with higher accuracy and resolution. Within GEOMED2, the data employed are land and marine gravity data, GOCE/GRACE based Global Geopotential Models and a combination after proper validation of MISTRAL, HOMONIM and SRTM/bathymetry terrain models. In this work we present the results achieved for an inner test region spanning the Adriatic Sea area, bounded between 36o < φ < 48o and 10o < λ < 22o. Within this test region, the available terrain/bathymetry models have been evaluated in terms of their contribution to geoid modeling, the processing methodologies have been tested in terms of the provided geoid accuracy and finally some preliminary results on the MDT determination have been compiled. The aforementioned will server as the guide for the Mediterranean-wide marine geoid estimation. The processing methodology was based on the well-known remove-compute-restore method following both stochastic and spectral methods. Classic least-squares collocation (LSC) with errors has been employed, along with fast Fourier transform (FFT)-based techniques, the Least-Squares Modification of Stokes' Formula (KTH) method and windowed LSC. All methods have been evaluated against in-situ collocated GPS/Levelling geoid heights, using EGM2008 as a reference, in order to conclude on the one(s) to be used for the basin-wide geoid evaluation.

Heat-energy storage through semi-opened circulation into low-permeability hard-rock aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettenati, Marie; Bour, Olivier; Ausseur, Jean-Yves; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; de la Bernardie, Jérôme; Chatton, Eliot; Lesueur, Hervé; Bethencourt, Lorine; Mougin, Bruno; Aquilina, Luc; Koch, Florian; Dewandel, Benoit; Boisson, Alexandre; Mosser, Jean-François; Pauwels, Hélène

2016-04-01

In low-permeability environments, the solutions of heat storage are still limited to the capacities of geothermal borehole heat exchangers. The ANR Stock-en-Socle project explores the possibilities of periodic storage of sensitive heat1 in low-permeability environments that would offer much better performance than that of borehole heat exchangers, especially in terms of unit capacity. This project examines the storage possibilities of using semi-open water circulation in typically a Standing Column Well (SCW), using the strong heterogeneity of hard-rock aquifers in targeting the least favorable areas for water resources. To solve the main scientific issues, which include evaluating the minimum level of permeability required around a well as well as its evolution through time (increase and decrease) due to water-rock interaction processes, the study is based on an experimental program of fieldwork and modelling for studying the thermal, hydraulic and geochemical processes involved. This includes tracer and water-circulation tests by injecting hot water in different wells located in distinct hard-rock settings (i.e. granite and schist) in Brittany, Ploemeur (H+ observatory network) and Naizin. A numerical modelling approach allows studying the effects of permeability structures on the storage and heat-recovery capacities, whereas the modelling of reactive transfers will provide an understanding of how permeability evolves under the influence of dissolution and precipitation. Based on the obtained results, technical solutions will be studied for constructing a well of the SCW type in a low-permeability environment. This work will be completed by a technical and economic feasibility study leading to an investment and operations model. This study aims to describe the suitability of SCW storage for shallow geothermal energy. In order to reach these objectives, Stock-en-Socle is constructed around a public/private partnership between two public research organizations, Géosciences Rennes and BRGM, and two companies, Antea Group and Soletanche Bachy, experts in groundwater and geothermal energy. 1Sensitive heat: modifies the temperature of water and its surrounding solids without modification of physical properties, as opposed to latent heat that causes a phase change, such as vaporization.

Using in-situ observations of atmospheric water vapor isotopes to benchmark and isotope-enabled General Circulation Models and improve ice core paleo-climate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Sveinbjörnsdottir, Arny; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Werner, Martin; Risi, Camille; Yoshimura, Kei

2016-04-01

We have since 2010 carried out in-situ continuous water vapor isotope observations on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (3 seasons at NEEM), in Svalbard (1 year), in Iceland (4 years), in Bermuda (4 years). The expansive dataset containing high accuracy and precision measurements of δ18O, δD, and the d-excess allow us to validate and benchmark the treatment of the atmospheric hydrological cycle's processes in General Circulation Models using simulations nudged to reanalysis products. Recent findings from both Antarctica and Greenland have documented strong interaction between the snow surface isotopes and the near surface atmospheric water vapor isotopes on diurnal to synoptic time scales. In fact, it has been shown that the snow surface isotopes take up the synoptic driven atmospheric water vapor isotopic signal in-between precipitation events, erasing the precipitation isotope signal in the surface snow. This highlights the importance of using General or Regional Climate Models, which accurately are able to simulate the atmospheric water vapor isotopic composition, to understand and interpret the ice core isotope signal. With this in mind we have used three isotope-enabled General Circulation Models (isoGSM, ECHAM5-wiso, and LMDZiso) nudged to reanalysis products. We have compared the simulations of daily mean isotope values directly with our in-situ observations. This has allowed us to characterize the variability of the isotopic composition in the models and compared it to our observations. We have specifically focused on the d-excess in order to characterize why both the mean and the variability is significantly lower than our observations. We argue that using water vapor isotopes to benchmark General Circulation Models offers an excellent tool for improving the treatment and parameterization of the atmospheric hydrological cycle. Recent studies have documented a very large inter-model dispersion in the treatment of the Arctic water cycle under a future global warming and greenhouse gas emission scenario. Our results call for action to create an international pan-Arctic monitoring water vapor isotope network in order to improve future projections of Arctic climate.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

2018-04-01

The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional and zonal components of global atmospheric circulation.

Convection in Extratropical Cyclones: Analysis of GPM, NexRAD, GCMs and Re-Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeyaratnam, J.; Booth, J. F.; Naud, C. M.; Luo, J.

2017-12-01

Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) are the most common cause of extreme precipitation in mid-latitudes and are important in the general atmospheric circulation as they redistribute moisture and heat. Isentropic lifting, upright convection, and slantwise convection are mechanisms of vertical motion within an ETC, which deliver different rain rates and might respond differently to global warming. In this study we compare different metrics for identifying convection within the ETC's and calculate the relative contribution of convection to total ETC precipitation. We determine if convection occurs preferentially in specific regions of the storm and decide how to best utilize GPM retrievals covering other parts of the mid-latitudes. Additionally, mid-latitude cyclones are tracked and composites of these tracked cyclones are compared amongst multiple versions of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) prototype models and re-analysis data; Model Diagnostic Task Force (MDTF) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) using a two-plume convection scheme, MDTF GFDL using the Donner convection scheme, Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and European Reanalysis produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Sub-scale Inverse Wind Turbine Blade Design Using Bound Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Christopher; Berg, Jonathan

2014-11-01

A goal of the National Rotor Testbed project at Sandia is to design a sub-scale wind turbine blade that has similitude to a modern, commercial size blade. However, a smaller diameter wind turbine operating at the same tip-speed-ratio exhibits a different range of operating Reynolds numbers across the blade span, thus changing the local lift and drag coefficients. Differences to load distribution also affect the wake dynamics and stability. An inverse wind turbine blade design tool has been implemented which uses a target, dimensionless circulation distribution from a full-scale blade to find the chord and twist along a sub-scale blade. In addition, airfoil polar data are interpolated from a few specified span stations leading to a smooth, manufacturable blade. The iterative process perturbs chord and twist, after running a blade element momentum theory code, to reduce the residual sum of the squares between the modeled sub-scale circulation and the target full-scale circulation. It is shown that the converged sub-scale design also leads to performance similarity in thrust and power coefficients. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

The Baltic haline conveyor belt or the overturning circulation and mixing in the Baltic.

PubMed

Döös, Kristofer; Meier, H E Markus; Döscher, Ralf

2004-06-01

A study of the water-mass circulation of the Baltic has been undertaken by making use of a three dimensional Baltic Sea model simulation. The saline water from the North Atlantic is traced through the Danish Sounds into the Baltic where it upwells and mixes with the fresh water inflow from the rivers forming a Baltic haline conveyor belt. The mixing of the saline water from the Great Belt and Oresund with the fresh water is investigated making use of overturning stream functions and Lagrangian trajectories. The overturning stream function was calculated as a function of four different vertical coordinates (depth, salinity, temperature and density) in order to understand the path of the water and where it upwells and mixes. Evidence of a fictive depth overturning cell similar to the Deacon Cell in the Southern Ocean was found in the Baltic proper corresponding to the gyre circulation around Gotland, which vanishes when the overturning stream function is projected on density layers. A Lagrangian trajectory study was performed to obtain a better view of the circulation and mixing of the saline and fresh waters. The residence time of the water masses in the Baltic is calculated to be 26-29 years and the Lagrangian dispersion reaches basin saturation after 5 years.

Dyamical Systems Theory and Lagrangian Data Assimilation in 4D Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

The long-term goal of our project (known as OCEAN 3D +1) was to better understand and predict ocean circulation features that are fundamentally three...dimensional in space and that vary in time. In particular, we sought to quantify the dynamical processes that govern the formation , evolution, and...predictability of 3D +1 transport pathways in the ocean. Our approach was to develop algorithms to thoroughly analyze a hierarchy of model and

Massively Parallel Assimilation of TOGA/TAO and Topex/Poseidon Measurements into a Quasi Isopycnal Ocean General Circulation Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele; Borovikov, Anna Y.; Suarez, Max

1999-01-01

A massively parallel ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)is used to assimilate temperature data from the TOGA/TAO array and altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON into a Pacific basin version of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. The EnKF is an approximate Kalman filter in which the error-covariance propagation step is modeled by the integration of multiple instances of a numerical model. An estimate of the true error covariances is then inferred from the distribution of the ensemble of model state vectors. This inplementation of the filter takes advantage of the inherent parallelism in the EnKF algorithm by running all the model instances concurrently. The Kalman filter update step also occurs in parallel by having each processor process the observations that occur in the region of physical space for which it is responsible. The massively parallel data assimilation system is validated by withholding some of the data and then quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The distributions of the forecast and analysis error covariances predicted by the ENKF are also examined.

Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

2010-05-01

Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

Uncertainty in modeled upper ocean heat content change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokmakian, Robin; Challenor, Peter

2014-02-01

This paper examines the uncertainty in the change in the heat content in the ocean component of a general circulation model. We describe the design and implementation of our statistical methodology. Using an ensemble of model runs and an emulator, we produce an estimate of the full probability distribution function (PDF) for the change in upper ocean heat in an Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model, the Community Climate System Model v. 3, across a multi-dimensional input space. We show how the emulator of the GCM's heat content change and hence, the PDF, can be validated and how implausible outcomes from the emulator can be identified when compared to observational estimates of the metric. In addition, the paper describes how the emulator outcomes and related uncertainty information might inform estimates of the same metric from a multi-model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble. We illustrate how to (1) construct an ensemble based on experiment design methods, (2) construct and evaluate an emulator for a particular metric of a complex model, (3) validate the emulator using observational estimates and explore the input space with respect to implausible outcomes and (4) contribute to the understanding of uncertainties within a multi-model ensemble. Finally, we estimate the most likely value for heat content change and its uncertainty for the model, with respect to both observations and the uncertainty in the value for the input parameters.

A System of Conservative Regridding for Ice-Atmosphere Coupling in a General Circulation Model (GCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fischer, R.; Nowicki, S.; Kelley, M.; Schmidt, G. A.

2014-01-01

The method of elevation classes, in which the ice surface model is run at multiple elevations within each grid cell, has proven to be a useful way for a low-resolution atmosphere inside a general circulation model (GCM) to produce high-resolution downscaled surface mass balance fields for use in one-way studies coupling atmospheres and ice flow models. Past uses of elevation classes have failed to conserve mass and energy because the transformation used to regrid to the atmosphere was inconsistent with the transformation used to downscale to the ice model. This would cause problems for two-way coupling. A strategy that resolves this conservation issue has been designed and is presented here. The approach identifies three grids between which data must be regridded and five transformations between those grids required by a typical coupled atmosphere-ice flow model. This paper develops a theoretical framework for the problem and shows how each of these transformations may be achieved in a consistent, conservative manner. These transformations are implemented in Glint2, a library used to couple atmosphere models with ice models. Source code and documentation are available for download. Confounding real-world issues are discussed, including the use of projections for ice modeling, how to handle dynamically changing ice geometry, and modifications required for finite element ice models.

Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasonova, Olga N.; Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological projections (for 2006-2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs slightly decreases with time.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-02-10

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

PubMed Central

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-01-01

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacMartin, Douglas G.; Kravitz, Ben

2016-12-22

Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project project the climate effects that result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without further relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We extend this idea to include different amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of greenhouse gas concentrations, by training emulators from a multi-model ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4 × CO 2 and a compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing predictions against a simulated 1 % per yearmore » CO 2 increase and a similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including regional effects), and annual-mean Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, with the difference between simulation and prediction typically being smaller than natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is less well predicted, indicating a limit to the linearity assumption.« less

Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation over Central Asia by CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, X.; Zhao, Y.

2017-12-01

Future changes in the annual cycle of the precipitation in central Asia (CA) were estimated based on the historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 25 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations, the historical (1979-1999) experiments showed that most models can capture the migration of rainfall centers, but remarkable discrepancies exist in the location and intensity of rainfall centers between simulations and observations. Considering the skill scores of precipitation and pattern correlations of circulations, which are closely related to the precipitation for each month, for the 25 models, the four best models (e.g., CanESM2, CMCC-CMS, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR) with relatively good performance were selected. The four models' ensemble mean indicated that the migration and location of the precipitation centers were better reproduced, except the intensity of the centers was overestimated, compared with the result that only considered precipitation. Based on the four best models' ensemble mean under RCP8.5 scenarios, precipitation was projected to increase dramatically over most of the CA region in the boreal cold seasons (November, December, January, February, March, April and May) with the maximum in December in the end of twenty-first century (2079-2099), and several positive centers were located in the Pamirs Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains. By contrast, the precipitation changes were weak in the boreal warm seasons (June, July, August, September and October), with a wet center located in the northern Himalayas. Furthermore, there remain some uncertainties in the projected precipitation regions and periods obtained by comparing models' ensemble results of this paper and the results of previous studies. These uncertainties should be investigated in future work.

Opportunities and Efficiencies in Building a New Service Desk Model.

PubMed

Mayo, Alexa; Brown, Everly; Harris, Ryan

2017-01-01

In July 2015, the Health Sciences and Human Services Library (HS/HSL) at the University of Maryland, Baltimore (UMB), merged its reference and circulation services, creating the Information Services Department and Information Services Desk. Designing the Information Services Desk with a team approach allowed for the re-examination of the HS/HSL's service model from the ground up. With the creation of a single service point, the HS/HSL was able to create efficiencies, improve the user experience by eliminating handoffs, create a collaborative team environment, and engage information services staff in a variety of new projects.

Using a Gravity Model to Predict Circulation in a Public Library System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ottensmann, John R.

1995-01-01

Describes the development of a gravity model based upon principles of spatial interaction to predict the circulation of libraries in the Indianapolis-Marion County Public Library (Indiana). The model effectively predicted past circulation figures and was tested by predicting future library circulation, particularly for a new branch library.…

COTHERM: Modelling fluid-rock interactions in Icelandic geothermal systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thien, Bruno; Kosakowski, Georg; Kulik, Dmitrii

2014-05-01

Mineralogical alteration of reservoir rocks, driven by fluid circulation in natural or enhanced geothermal systems, is likely to influence the long-term performance of geothermal power generation. A key factor is the change of porosity due to dissolution of primary minerals and precipitation of secondary phases. Porosity changes will affect fluid circulation and solute transport, which, in turn, influence mineralogical alteration. This study is part of the Sinergia COTHERM project (COmbined hydrological, geochemical and geophysical modeling of geotTHERMal systems) that is an integrative research project aimed at improving our understanding of the sub-surface processes in magmatically-driven natural geothermal systems. We model the mineralogical and porosity evolution of Icelandic geothermal systems with 1D and 2D reactive transport models. These geothermal systems are typically high enthalphy systems where a magmatic pluton is located at a few kilometers depth. The shallow plutons increase the geothermal gradient and trigger the circulation of hydrothermal waters with a steam cap forming at shallow depth. We investigate two contrasting geothermal systems: Krafla, for which the water recharge consists of meteoritic water; and Reykjanes, for which the water recharge mainly consists of seawater. The initial rock composition is a fresh basalt. We use the GEM-Selektor geochemical modeling package [1] for calculation of kinetically controlled mineral equilibria between the rock and the ingression water. We consider basalt minerals dissolution kinetics according to Palandri & Kharaka [2]. Reactive surface areas are assumed to be geometric surface areas, and are corrected using a spherical-particle surface/mass relationship. For secondary minerals, we consider the partial equilibrium assuming that the primary mineral dissolution is slow, and the secondary mineral precipitation is fast. Comparison of our modeling results with the mineralogical assemblages observed in the field by Gudmundsson & Arnorsson [3] and by Icelandic partners of the COTHERM project suggests that the concept of partial equilibrium with instantaneous precipitation of secondary minerals is not sufficient to satisfactorily describe the experimental data. Considering kinetic controls also for secondary minerals appears as indispensable to properly describe the geothermal system evolution using a reactive transport modelling approach [4]. [1] Kulik D.A., Wagner T., Dmytrieva S.V., Kosakowski G., Hingerl F.F., Chudnenko K.V., Berner U., 2013. GEM-Selektor geochemical modeling package: revised algorithm and GEMS3K numerical kernel for coupled simulation codes. Computational Geosciences 17, 1-24. http://gems.web.psi.ch. [2] Palandri, J.L., Kharaka, Y.K., 2004. A compilation of rate parameters of water-mineral interaction kinetics for application to geochemical modelling. U.S.Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, pp. 1-64. [3] Gudmundsson B.T., Arnorsson S., 2005. Secondary mineral-fluid equilibria in the Krafla and Namafjall geothermal systems, Iceland. Applied Geochememistry 20, 1607-1625. [4] Kosakowski, G., & Watanabe, N., 2013. OpenGeoSys-Gem: A numerical tool for calculating geochemical and porosity changes in saturated and partially saturated media. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2013.11.008

The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

2016-08-01

Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the Catchment Simulator modelling frameworks based on the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO) model, which was expanded to estimate discharge by incorporating the effects of forest-type transition across the whole of Japan. The results indicated that, by the 2090s, annual runoff will increase above present-day values. Increases in annual variation in runoff by the 2090s was predicted to be around 14.1% when using the MRI-GCM data and 44.4% when using the HadGEM data. Analysis by long-term projection showed the largest increases in runoff in the 2090s were related to the type of forest, such as evergreen. Increased runoff can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including increased flooding events, worsened water quality, habitat destruction and changes to the forest moisture-retaining function. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on water generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

2015-01-01

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of climate change on coastal systems.

A Question of Gender-Sensitive Pedagogy: Discourses in Pedagogical Guidelines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karlson, Ingrid; Simonsson, Maria

2011-01-01

In this article, some of the discourses concerning "gender-sensitive pedagogy" that circulate in Swedish preschools are discussed. Two guideline documents that circulate in gender- and equity-sensitive projects in preschool are investigated, and the question is asked: What gender-related messages can possibly reach preschools from the…

Dynamics of the middle atmosphere as observed by the ARISE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elisabeth

2015-04-01

The atmosphere is a complex system submitted to disturbances in a wide range of scales, including high frequency sources as volcanoes, thunderstorms, tornadoes and at larger scales, gravity waves from deep convection or wind over mountains, atmospheric tides and planetary waves. These waves affect the different atmospheric layers submitted to different temperature and wind systems which strongly control the general atmospheric circulation. The full description of gravity and planetary waves constitutes a challenge for the development of future models of atmosphere and climate. The objective of this paper is to present a review of recent advances obtained in this topic, especially in the framework of the ARISE (Atmospheric dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe) project

Lagrangian Modeling of Arctic Ocean Circulation Pathways: Impact of Advection on Spread of Pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, S.; Popova, E.; Aksenov, Y.; Marsh, R.; Yool, A.

2018-04-01

Sea-ice-free summers are projected to become a prominent feature of the Arctic environment in the coming decades. From a shipping perspective, this means larger areas of open water in the summer, thinner and less compact ice all year round, and longer operating seasons. Therefore, the possibility for easier navigation along trans-Arctic shipping routes arises. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is one trans-Arctic route, and it offers a potential 10 day shortcut between Western Europe and the Far East. More ships transiting the NSR means an increased risk of an accident, and associated oil spill, occurring. Previous research suggests that current infrastructure is insufficient for increased shipping. Therefore, should an oil spill occur, the window for a successful clean-up will be short. In the event of a failed recovery, the long-term fate of the unrecovered pollutants must be considered, at least until the next melt season when it could become accessible again. Here we investigate the role of oceanic advection in determining the long-term fate of Arctic pollutants using a high-resolution ocean model along with Lagrangian particle-tracking to simulate the spread of pollutants. The resulting "advective footprints" of pollutants are proposed as an informative metric for analyzing such experiments. We characterize the circulation along different parts of the NSR, defining three main regions in the Eurasian Arctic, and relate the distinctive circulation pathways of each to the long-term fate of spilled oil. We conclude that a detailed understanding of ocean circulation is critical for determining the long-term fate of Arctic pollutants.

Interpreting the rich-get-richer effect in precipitation change under global warming: issues at monsoon scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J.; Langenbrunner, B.; Meyerson, J. E.

2012-12-01

Precipitation changes under global warming are often discussed in terms of wet areas receiving more precipitation and dry areas receiving less, sometimes termed the "rich-get-richer" effect. Since the first use of this term, it has been known that contributions can be broken diagnostically into a relatively straightforward tendency associated with moisture increases acted on by the climatological circulation and dynamical feedbacks associated with changes in circulation. A number of studies indicate the latter to be prone to yield scatter in model projections of precipitation change. At the spatial scales of the major monsoon regions, substantial contributions from dynamical feedbacks tend to occur. Factors affecting this dependence will be reviewed with an eye to asking how the community can make succinct statements without oversimplifying the challenges at the regional scale.

Longitudinal biases in the Seychelles Dome simulated by 35 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagura, Motoki; Sasaki, Wataru; Tozuka, Tomoki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-02-01

Seychelles Dome refers to the shallow climatological thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean, where ocean wave dynamics efficiently affect sea surface temperature, allowing sea surface temperature anomalies to be predicted up to 1-2 years in advance. Accurate reproduction of the dome by ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is essential for successful seasonal predictions in the Indian Ocean. This study examines the Seychelles Dome as simulated by 35 CGCMs, including models used in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region. This result is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models reproducing an eastward-displaced dome, easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall, which result in shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and a spurious upwelling dome in the region. Compared to the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes.

Impact of the GeoMIP G1 sunshade geoengineering experiment on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Yu; Moore, John C.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Ji, Duoying; Phipps, Steven J.; Lenton, Andrew; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Zhao, Liyun

2017-03-01

We analyze the multi-earth system model responses of ocean temperatures and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under an idealized solar radiation management scenario (G1) from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. All models simulate warming of the northern North Atlantic relative to no geoengineering, despite geoengineering substantially offsetting the increases in mean global ocean temperatures. Increases in the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean at the surface (˜0.25 K) and at a depth of 500 m (˜0.10 K) are mainly due to a 10 Wm-2 reduction of total heat flux from ocean to atmosphere. Although the AMOC is slightly reduced under the solar dimming scenario, G1, relative to piControl, it is about 37% stronger than under abrupt4 × CO2 . The reduction of the AMOC under G1 is mainly a response to the heat flux change at the northern North Atlantic rather than to changes in the water flux and the wind stress. The AMOC transfers heat from tropics to high latitudes, helping to warm the high latitudes, and its strength is maintained under solar dimming rather than weakened by greenhouse gas forcing acting alone. Hence the relative reduction in high latitude ocean temperatures provided by solar radiation geoengineering, would tend to be counteracted by the correspondingly active AMOC circulation which furthermore transports warm surface waters towards the Greenland ice sheet, warming Arctic sea ice and permafrost.

The role of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and biological sequestration on atmospheric CO2 uptake during the last deglaciation (CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muschitiello, Francesco; D'Andrea, William J.; Dokken, Trond M.; Schmittner, Andreas

2017-04-01

Understanding the impact of ocean circulation on the global atmospheric CO2 budget is of paramount importance for anticipating the consequences of projected future changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In particular, the efficiency of the oceanic biological pump can impact atmospheric CO2 through changes in vertical carbon export mediated by variations in the nutrient inventory of the North Atlantic basin. However, the causal relationship between North Atlantic Ocean circulation, biological carbon sequestration, and atmospheric CO2 is poorly understood. Here we present new high-resolution planktic-benthic 14C data and biomarker records from an exceptionally well-dated marine core from the Nordic Seas spanning the last deglaciation ( 15,000-10,000 years BP). The records document for the first time large and rapid atmospheric CO2 drawdowns and increase in plankton stocks during major North Atlantic cooling events. Using transient climate simulations from a fully coupled climate-biosphere model, we show that minor perturbations of the North Atlantic biological pump resulting from surface freshening and AMOC weakening can have a major impact on the global atmospheric CO2 budget. Furthermore, our data help clarifying the timing and magnitude of the deglacial CO2 signal recorded in Antarctic ice cores. We conclude that the global CO2 budget is more sensitive to perturbations in North Atlantic circulation than previously thought, which has significance in the future debate of the AMOC response to anthropogenic warming.

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes in land use pattern are robust.

Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Q.

2015-12-01

The Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL) is introduced in this work. FAMIL have the flexible horizontal and vertical resolutions up to 25km and 1Pa respectively, which currently running on the "Tianhe 1A&2" supercomputers. FAMIL is the atmospheric component of the third-generation Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land climate System model (FGOALS3) which will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition to describing the dynamical core and physical parameterizations of FAMIL, this talk describes the simulated characteristics of energy and water balances, precipitation, Asian Summer Monsoon and stratospheric circulation, and compares them with observational/reanalysis data. Finally, the model biases as well as possible solutions are discussed.

Numerical simulation of the river and urban discharges into the Sea: Application to the Catalan Coast.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liste, M.; Grifoll, M.; Keupers, I.; Monbaliu, J.

2012-04-01

Introduction The coastal oceans are the recipient of freshwater and land/drained materials that are primarily brought in through river and urban discharge [Kourafalou et al., 1996]. Freshwater discharge from rivers and urban outflows to the ocean water has profound effects on the physical, chemical, and biological processes in coastal waters. It induces circulation patterns and modifies mixing processes [Milliman and Farnsworth, 2011]. Due to their ecological and dynamical importance, a good understanding of the mixing and transport processes in river plumes is required for the maintenance of coastal ecosystems and their resources. In this paper will discuss the results of the land boundary fluxes implementation into the coastal circulation model. As a demonstration part of the Catalan coast has been chosen. The combination of local topography with torrential rainfall can produce considerable local runoff on a short time with a large impact on the receiving coastal waters. Methodology and aim For the coastal circulation model, version 3.0 of the Regional Ocean Modeling System [ROMS, Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005] has been implemented for small portion of the Catalan coast. ROMS uses sigma coordinates and solves the 3-D Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The code design is modular, so that different choices for advection and mixing, for example, may be applied by simply modifying preprocessor flags. Nested increasing-resolution models have been implemented in order to reproduce with enough resolution the coastal circulation and the river plume evolution. The boundary conditions are obtained from the MyOcean products. River and urban run-off are estimated based on rainfall (predictions) form the contributing catchments areas. Conceptual models based on a reservoir-type schematization of the river and sewer network have been set up to allow the fast prediction of the different point source boundary conditions [Keupers et al., 2011]. Model output for selected events will be compared to data from dedicated campaigns during the Field_AC Project and to data from operational buoys in the Catalan coastal area.

Stratospheric Ozone Response in Experiments G3 and G4 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pitari, Giovanni; Aquila, Valentina; Kravitz, Ben; Watanabe, Shingo; Tilmes, Simone; Mancini, Eva; DeLuca, Natalia; DiGenova, Glauco

2013-01-01

Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols has been proposed as a means of temporarily cooling the planet, alleviating some of the side effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, one of the known side effects of stratospheric injections of sulfate aerosols is a decrease in stratospheric ozone. Here we show results from two general circulation models and two coupled chemistry climate models that have simulated stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering as part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Changes in photolysis rates and upwelling of ozone-poor air in the tropics reduce stratospheric ozone, suppression of the NOx cycle increases stratospheric ozone, and an increase in available surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry modulates reductions in ozone. On average, the models show a factor 20-40 increase of the sulfate aerosol surface area density (SAD) at 50 hPa in the tropics with respect to unperturbed background conditions and a factor 3-10 increase at mid-high latitudes. The net effect for a tropical injection rate of 5 Tg SO2 per year is a decrease in globally averaged ozone by 1.1-2.1 DU in the years 2040-2050 for three models which include heterogeneous chemistry on the sulfate aerosol surfaces. GISS-E2-R, a fully coupled general circulation model, performed simulations with no heterogeneous chemistry and a smaller aerosol size; it showed a decrease in ozone by 9.7 DU. After the year 2050, suppression of the NOx cycle becomes more important than destruction of ozone by ClOx, causing an increase in total stratospheric ozone. Contribution of ozone changes in this experiment to radiative forcing is 0.23 W m-2 in GISS-E2-R and less than 0.1 W m-2 in the other three models. Polar ozone depletion, due to enhanced formation of both sulfate aerosol SAD and polar stratospheric clouds, results in an average 5 percent increase in calculated surface UV-B.

A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liang, XU; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Wood, Eric F.; Burges, Stephen J.

1994-01-01

A generalization of the single soil layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrological model previously implemented in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation model (GCM) is described. The new model is comprised of a two-layer characterization of the soil column, and uses an aerodynamic representation of the latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The infiltration algorithm for the upper layer is essentially the same as for the single layer VIC model, while the lower layer drainage formulation is of the form previously implemented in the Max-Planck-Institut GCM. The model partitions the area of interest (e.g., grid cell) into multiple land surface cover types; for each land cover type the fraction of roots in the upper and lower zone is specified. Evapotranspiration consists of three components: canopy evaporation, evaporation from bare soils, and transpiration, which is represented using a canopy and architectural resistance formulation. Once the latent heat flux has been computed, the surface energy balance is iterated to solve for the land surface temperature at each time step. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatological data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters, and surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) intensive field campaigns in the summer-fall of 1987 to validate the surface energy fluxes.

Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, Monireh; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Farzaneh, Mohammad Reza; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Yang, Hong

2013-02-01

SummaryThis study analyzes the impact of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa at the subbasin level for the period of 2020-2040. Future climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the four IPCC emission scenarios were fed into an existing SWAT hydrological model to project the impact on different components of water resources across the African continent. The GCMs have been downscaled based on observed data of Climate Research Unit to represent local climate conditions at 0.5° grid spatial resolution. The results show that for Africa as a whole, the mean total quantity of water resources is likely to increase. For individual subbasins and countries, variations are substantial. Although uncertainties are high in the simulated results, we found that in many regions/countries, most of the climate scenarios projected the same direction of changes in water resources, suggesting a relatively high confidence in the projections. The assessment of the number of dry days and the frequency of their occurrences suggests an increase in the drought events and their duration in the future. Overall, the dry regions have higher uncertainties than the wet regions in the projected impacts on water resources. This poses additional challenge to the agriculture in dry regions where water shortage is already severe while irrigation is expected to become more important to stabilize and increase food production.

Extreme waves from tropical cyclones and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Projected strengthening of Amazonian dry season by constrained climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boisier, Juan P.; Ciais, Philippe; Ducharne, Agnès; Guimberteau, Matthieu

2015-07-01

The vulnerability of Amazonian rainforest, and the ecological services it provides, depends on an adequate supply of dry-season water, either as precipitation or stored soil moisture. How the rain-bearing South American monsoon will evolve across the twenty-first century is thus a question of major interest. Extensive savanization, with its loss of forest carbon stock and uptake capacity, is an extreme although very uncertain scenario. We show that the contrasting rainfall projections simulated for Amazonia by 36 global climate models (GCMs) can be reproduced with empirical precipitation models, calibrated with historical GCM data as functions of the large-scale circulation. A set of these simple models was therefore calibrated with observations and used to constrain the GCM simulations. In agreement with the current hydrologic trends, the resulting projection towards the end of the twenty-first century is for a strengthening of the monsoon seasonal cycle, and a dry-season lengthening in southern Amazonia. With this approach, the increase in the area subjected to lengthy--savannah-prone--dry seasons is substantially larger than the GCM-simulated one. Our results confirm the dominant picture shown by the state-of-the-art GCMs, but suggest that the `model democracy' view of these impacts can be significantly underestimated.

Are Droughts in the United States Great Plains Predictable on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, M.; Pegion, P.; Kistler, M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The United States Great Plains has experienced numerous episodes of unusually dry conditions lasting anywhere from months to several years, In this presentation, we will examine the predictability of such episodes and the physical mechanisms controlling the variability of the summer climate of the continental United States. The analysis is based on ensembles of multi-year simulations and seasonal hindcasts generated with the NASA Seasonal to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) General Circulation Model.

Large-scale circulation patterns, instability factors and global precipitation modeling as influenced by external forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundel, A.; Kulikova, I.; Kruglova, E.; Muravev, A.

2003-04-01

The scope of the study is to estimate the relationship between large-scale circulation regimes, various instability indices and global precipitation with different boundary conditions, considered as external forcing. The experiments were carried out in the ensemble-prediction framework of the dynamic-statistical monthly forecast scheme run in the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia every ten days. The extension to seasonal intervals makes it necessary to investigate the role of slowly changing boundary conditions among which the sea surface temperature (SST) may be defined as the most effective factor. Continuous integrations of the global spectral T41L15 model for the whole year 2000 (starting from January 1) were performed with the climatic SST and the Reynolds Archive SSTs. Monthly values of the SST were projected on the year days using spline interpolation technique. First, the global precipitation values in experiments were compared to the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climate Program) daily observation data. Although the global mean precipitation is underestimated by the model, some large-scale regional amounts correspond to the real ones (e.g. for Europe) fairly well. On the whole, however, anomaly phases failed to be reproduced. The precipitation averaged over the whole land revealed a greater sensitivity to the SSTs than that over the oceans. The wavelet analysis was applied to separate the low- and high-frequency signal of the SST influence on the large-scale circulation and precipitation. A derivative of the Wallace-Gutzler teleconnection index for the East-Atlantic oscillation was taken as the circulation characteristic. The daily oscillation index values and precipitation amounts averaged over Europe were decomposed using wavelet approach with different “mother wavelets” up to approximation level 3. It was demonstrated that an increase in the precipitation amount over Europe was associated with the zonal flow intensification over the Northern Atlantic when the real SSTs were used. Blocking structures in the circulation caused decreasing precipitation amounts. The wavelet approach gave a more distinctive discrimination in the modeled circulation and precipitation patterns versus different external forcing than a number of other statistical techniques. Several atmospheric instability indices (e.g. the Phillips like parameters, Richardson number etc) were additionally used in post-processing for a more detailed validation of the modeled large-scale and total precipitation amounts. It was shown that a reasonable variety of instability indices must be used for such validations and for precipitation output corrections. Their statistical stability may be substantiated only on the ensemble modeling basis. This work was performed with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (02-05-64655).

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

Sea Level Rise, Rainfall and Coastal Flooding in Northeastern U.S. Cities Vivien Gornitz, Radley Horton, Philip Orton, Nickitas Georgas, Alan Blumberg, and Cynthia Rosenzweig

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gornitz, V.; Horton, R. M.; Orton, P. M.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Rosenzweig, C.

2012-12-01

Populations and infrastructure along much of the northeastern coast of the United States will become increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of rising sea level and storm surges over the coming century. This vulnerability is amplified by regional land subsidence and likely also by shifts in ocean circulation. Building upon recent studies for the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), New York State ClimAid assessment, and the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment, we report new regional sea level rise projections based on the latest CMIP-5 global climate models (GCMs) and RCP emission scenarios, adjusted for revised glacial ice melt contributions, and other factors such as gravitational effects, land water storage, and changes in the Atlantic Meriodional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Over the coming two years, GCM-derived sea level outputs for future decades will be utilized in risk assessments for coastal flooding in New York City, Boston, and Philadelphia, as part of the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast-RISA project. The Stevens Institute Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM) will be used to produce best estimates (including uncertainty ranges) of sea level rise impacts for a wide range of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones for the 2010s, 2050s, and 2080s. Major improvements over prior studies include (a) the use of a detailed, extensively validated ocean model, and (b) inclusion of rainfall and river flow influences on coastal flooding, which affect flood levels in enclosed tidal waterways (e.g., the Hudson and Delaware Rivers), and which are also likely important in coastal confluence zones of impermeable urbanized watersheds. In addition to the sea level rise results, we present initial model validation results for historical storms.

An energetic perspective on hydrological cycle changes in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, Ben; Rasch, Philip J.; Forster, Piers M.; Andrews, Timothy; Cole, Jason N. S.; Irvine, Peter J.; Ji, Duoying; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Moore, John C.; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Robock, Alan; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yoon, Jin-Ho

2013-12-01

of surface and atmospheric energy budget responses to CO2 and solar forcings can be used to reveal mechanisms of change in the hydrological cycle. We apply this energetic perspective to output from 11 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models simulating experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), which achieves top-of-atmosphere energy balance between an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial levels (abrupt4xCO2) and uniform solar irradiance reduction. We divide the climate system response into a rapid adjustment, in which climate response is due to adjustment of the atmosphere and land surface on short time scales, and a feedback response, in which the climate response is predominantly due to feedback related to global mean temperature changes. Global mean temperature change is small in G1, so the feedback response is also small. G1 shows a smaller magnitude of land sensible heat flux rapid adjustment than in abrupt4xCO2 and a larger magnitude of latent heat flux adjustment, indicating a greater reduction of evaporation and less land temperature increase than abrupt4xCO2. The sum of surface flux changes in G1 is small, indicating little ocean heat uptake. Using an energetic perspective to assess precipitation changes, abrupt4xCO2 shows decreased mean evaporative moisture flux and increased moisture convergence, particularly over land. However, most changes in precipitation in G1 are in mean evaporative flux, suggesting that changes in mean circulation are small.

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, B.; Crane, R. G.

1992-01-01

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Wireless Technology in the Library: The RIT Experience: Overview of the Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pitkin, Pat

2001-01-01

Provides an overview of a project at RIT (Rochester Institute of Technology) that experimented with wireless technology, including laptop computers that circulate within the library building. Discusses project requirements, including ease of use, low maintenance, and low cost; motivation, including mobility; implementation; and benefits to the…

Circulation/Reserves Area Makeover: Practical and Aesthetic Considerations in a Remodeling Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Werre, Pam

2003-01-01

The following article describes a literature review on factors that went into the planning for a new circulation/reserves desk at the Livingston Lord Library at Minnesota State University, Moorhead. Many issues have been reported in the literature and must be considered when designing a functional, convenient, and ADA-compliant…

Meta-analysis of 49 549 individuals imputed with the 1000 Genomes Project reveals an exonic damaging variant in ANGPTL4 determining fasting TG levels

PubMed Central

van Leeuwen, Elisabeth M; Sabo, Aniko; Bis, Joshua C; Huffman, Jennifer E; Manichaikul, Ani; Smith, Albert V; Feitosa, Mary F; Demissie, Serkalem; Joshi, Peter K; Duan, Qing; Marten, Jonathan; van Klinken, Jan B; Surakka, Ida; Nolte, Ilja M; Zhang, Weihua; Mbarek, Hamdi; Li-Gao, Ruifang; Trompet, Stella; Verweij, Niek; Evangelou, Evangelos; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Tayo, Bamidele O; Deelen, Joris; van der Most, Peter J; van der Laan, Sander W; Arking, Dan E; Morrison, Alanna; Dehghan, Abbas; Franco, Oscar H; Hofman, Albert; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Sijbrands, Eric J; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Mychaleckyj, Josyf C; Campbell, Archie; Hocking, Lynne J; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Brody, Jennifer A; Rice, Kenneth M; White, Charles C; Harris, Tamara; Isaacs, Aaron; Campbell, Harry; Lange, Leslie A; Rudan, Igor; Kolcic, Ivana; Navarro, Pau; Zemunik, Tatijana; Salomaa, Veikko; Kooner, Angad S; Kooner, Jaspal S; Lehne, Benjamin; Scott, William R; Tan, Sian-Tsung; de Geus, Eco J; Milaneschi, Yuri; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Willemsen, Gonneke; de Mutsert, Renée; Ford, Ian; Gansevoort, Ron T; Segura-Lepe, Marcelo P; Raitakari, Olli T; Viikari, Jorma S; Nikus, Kjell; Forrester, Terrence; McKenzie, Colin A; de Craen, Anton J M; de Ruijter, Hester M; Pasterkamp, Gerard; Snieder, Harold; Oldehinkel, Albertine J; Slagboom, P Eline; Cooper, Richard S; Kähönen, Mika; Lehtimäki, Terho; Elliott, Paul; van der Harst, Pim; Jukema, J Wouter; Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O; Boomsma, Dorret I; Chambers, John C; Swertz, Morris; Ripatti, Samuli; Willems van Dijk, Ko; Vitart, Veronique; Polasek, Ozren; Hayward, Caroline; Wilson, James G; Wilson, James F; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Rich, Stephen S; Psaty, Bruce M; Borecki, Ingrid B; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rotter, Jerome I; Cupples, L Adrienne; van Duijn, Cornelia M

2016-01-01

Background So far, more than 170 loci have been associated with circulating lipid levels through genome-wide association studies (GWAS). These associations are largely driven by common variants, their function is often not known, and many are likely to be markers for the causal variants. In this study we aimed to identify more new rare and low-frequency functional variants associated with circulating lipid levels. Methods We used the 1000 Genomes Project as a reference panel for the imputations of GWAS data from ∼60 000 individuals in the discovery stage and ∼90 000 samples in the replication stage. Results Our study resulted in the identification of five new associations with circulating lipid levels at four loci. All four loci are within genes that can be linked biologically to lipid metabolism. One of the variants, rs116843064, is a damaging missense variant within the ANGPTL4 gene. Conclusions This study illustrates that GWAS with high-scale imputation may still help us unravel the biological mechanism behind circulating lipid levels. PMID:27036123

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), American Coot (Fulica americana), Black Tern (Chlidonias niger), Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) and Sora (Porzana carolina), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

2018-02-01

Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them for future streamflow projections and segregate the contribution of various sources to the uncertainty.

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Composite Study Of Aerosol Long-Range Transport Events From East Asia And North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Waliser, D. E.; Guan, B.; Xavier, P.; Petch, J.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S.

2011-12-01

While the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) exerts pronounced influences on global climate and weather systems, current general circulation models (GCMs) exhibit rather limited capability in representing this prominent tropical variability mode. Meanwhile, the fundamental physics of the MJO are still elusive. Given the central role of the diabatic heating for prevailing MJO theories and demands for reducing the model deficiencies in simulating the MJO, a global model inter-comparison project on diabatic processes and vertical heating structure associated with the MJO has been coordinated through a joint effort by the WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX YOTC MJO Task Force and GEWEX GASS Program. In this presentation, progress of this model inter-comparison project will be reported, with main focus on climate simulations from about 27 atmosphere-only and coupled GCMs. Vertical structures of heating and diabatic processes associated with the MJO based on multi-model simulations will be presented along with their reanalysis and satellite estimate counterparts. Key processes possibly responsible for a realistic simulation of the MJO, including moisture-convection interaction, gross moist stability, ocean coupling, and surface heat flux, will be discussed.

Observationally constrained projections of Antarctic ice sheet instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Tamsin; Ritz, Catherine; Durand, Gael; Payne, Anthony; Peyaud, Vincent; Hindmarsh, Richard

2015-04-01

Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lie on bedrock below sea level and may be vulnerable to a positive feedback known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica, induced by circulation of warm Circumpolar Deep Water. If this retreat is sustained the region could contribute up to 1-2 m to global mean sea level, and if triggered in other areas the potential contribution to sea level on centennial to millennial timescales could be two to three times greater. However, physically plausible projections of Antarctic MISI are challenging: numerical ice sheet models are too low in spatial resolution to resolve grounding line processes or else too computationally expensive to assess modelling uncertainties, and no dynamical models exist of the ocean-atmosphere-ice sheet system. Furthermore, previous numerical ice sheet model projections for Antarctica have not been calibrated with observations, which can reduce uncertainties. Here we estimate the probability of dynamic mass loss in the event of MISI under a medium climate scenario, assessing 16 modelling uncertainties and calibrating the projections with observed mass losses in the ASE from 1992-2011. We project losses of up to 30 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100 and 72 cm SLE by 2200 (95% credibility interval: CI). Our results are substantially lower than previous estimates. The ASE sustains substantial losses, 83% of the continental total by 2100 and 67% by 2200 (95% CI), but in other regions losses are limited by ice dynamical theory, observations, or a lack of projected triggers.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPherson, Michelle Yvonne; García-García, Almudena; José Cuesta-Valero, Francisco; Beltrami, Hugo; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Hume Ogden, Nicholas

2017-04-01

A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical and forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis. As in previous studies, R0 of I. scapularis increased with a warming climate under future projected climate. Increases in the multi-model mean R0 values showed significant changes over time under all RCP scenarios, however; only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences. Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. On-going planning is needed to inform and guide adaptation in light of the projected range of possible futures.

Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Chung, Eun-Sung; Ismail, Tarmizi bin

2017-11-01

This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in-situ observed rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2-75.2 and skill score (SS) of 0.94-0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and decreased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate of - 7.9% to - 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of - 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing rainfall during the first period (2010-2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070-2099.

Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme heat stress on rice across southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Liang; Cleverly, James; Wang, Bin; Jin, Ning; Mi, Chunrong; Liu, De Li; Yu, Qiang

2017-08-01

Extreme heat events have become more frequent and intense with climate warming, and these heatwaves are a threat to rice production in southern China. Projected changes in heat stress in rice provide an assessment of the potential impact on crop production and can direct measures for adaptation to climate change. In this study, we calculated heat stress indices using statistical scaling techniques, which can efficiently downscale output from general circulation models (GCMs). Data across the rice belt in southern China were obtained from 28 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) with two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 for current emissions and RCP8.5 for increasing emissions). Multi-model ensemble projections over the historical period (1960-2010) reproduced the trend of observations in heat stress indices (root-mean-square error RMSE = 6.5 days) better than multi-model arithmetic mean (RMSE 8.9 days) and any individual GCM (RMSE 11.4 days). The frequency of heat stress events was projected to increase by 2061-2100 in both scenarios (up to 185 and 319% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively), especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This increasing risk of exposure to heat stress above 30 °C during flowering and grain filling is predicted to impact rice production. The results of our study suggest the importance of specific adaption or mitigation strategies, such as selection of heat-tolerant cultivars and adjustment of planting date in a warmer future world.

Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Tang, Jianping; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Gao, Xuejie; Wu, Jia; Hong, Songyou; Gutowski, William J.; McGregor, John

2015-10-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, future precipitation projection in China is constructed using five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same global climate model (GCM) of European Centre/Hamburg version 5. The simulations cover both the control climate (1978-2000) and future projection (2041-2070) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. For the control climate, the RCMs have an advantage over the driving GCM in reproducing the summer mean precipitation distribution and the annual cycle. The biases in simulating summer precipitation mainly are caused by the deficiencies in reproducing the low-level circulation, such as the western Pacific subtropical high. In addition, large inter-RCM differences exist in the summer precipitation simulations. For the future climate, consistent and inconsistent changes in precipitation between the driving GCM and the nested RCMs are observed. Similar changes in summer precipitation are projected by RCMs over western China, but model behaviors are quite different over eastern China, which is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The inter-RCM difference of rainfall changes is more pronounced in spring over eastern China. North China and the southern part of South China are very likely to experience less summer rainfall in multi-RCM mean (MRM) projection, while limited credibility in increased summer rainfall MRM projection over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The inter-RCM variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and South China during 2041-2060, while lowest for Northeast China, being less than 40%.

A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposures due to these impacts was developed by linking climate, air quality, land-use, and human exposure models. This methodology was then applied to characterize changes in predicted human exposures to O3 under multiple future scenarios. Regional climate projections for the U.S. were developed by downscaling global circulation model (GCM) scenarios for three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional climate results were in turn used to generate air quality (concentration) projections using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. For each of the climate change scenarios, future U.S. census-tract level population distributions from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model for four future scenarios based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) storylines were used. These climate, air quality, and population projections were used as inputs to EPA’s Air Pollutants Exposure (APEX) model for 12 U.S. cities. Probability density functions show changes in the population distribution of 8 h maximum daily O3 exposur

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Suchul; Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-03-01

In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12 km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optical circulator analysis and optimization: a mini-project for physical optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Zhujun

2017-08-01

One of the mini-projects for the course of physical optics is reported. The project is designed to increase comprehension on the basics and applications of polarized light and birefringent crystal. Firstly, the students are required to analyze the basic principle of an optical circulator based on birefringent crystal. Then, they need to consider the engineering optimization problems. The key tasks include analyzing the polarization transforming unit (composed of a half-waveplate and a Faraday rotator) based on Jones matrix, maximizing the walk-off angle between e-ray and o-ray in birefringent crystal, separating e-ray and o-ray symmetrically, employment of a transformed Wollaston prism for input/output coupling of optical beams to fibers. Three years' practice shows that the project is of moderate difficulty, while it covers most of the related knowledge required for the course and helps to train the engineering thinking.

An Evaluation of CMIP5 Precipitation Variability for China Relative to Observations and CMIP3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frauenfeld, O. W.; Chen, L.

2013-12-01

Precipitation represents an important link between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere and is thus a key component of the climate system. As indicated by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface air temperatures increased by 0.74°C during the 20th century, with further warming of 0.2°C/decade projected by the 2030s. Projected changes in precipitation, however, are much more variable, and exhibit more complex temporal and spatial patterns. This presentation focuses on precipitation variability based on 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the fifth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). Specifically, we focus on China and provide a comprehensive evaluation of the CMIP5 models compared to historical 20th century precipitation variability from two observational precipitation products: the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time series (TS) dataset version 3.10, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) version 6. We also reassess the performance of the third CMIP (CMIP3) to quantify potential improvements in CMIP5 over the previous generation of GCMs. Finally, we provide 21st century precipitation projections for China based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6. These future precipitation projections are presented in light of the observed 20th century biases in the models. We find that CMIP5 models are able to better reproduce the general spatial pattern of observed 20th century precipitation than CMIP3. However, for China as a whole, the annual precipitation magnitude is overestimated in CMIP5, more so than in CMIP3. This smaller overestimation in CMIP3 was primarily driven by a large underestimation of summer precipitation. Spatially, overestimated precipitation magnitudes are evident for most regions of China, especially along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Over southeastern China during summer, the precipitation amounts are underestimated. The multidecadal precipitation variability in CMIP5 is muted relative to observations, but improved when compared to CMIP3. We also assess precipitation trends and correlations relative to observations, and again find better agreement for CMIP5 than for CMIP3. Both observations and models indicated precipitation increases over parts of northwestern China, and decreases over the Tibetan Plateau throughout the 20th century. However, for the southeastern and northern regions of China there is poor agreement in precipitation trends. Precipitation is projected to increase across all of China under all the three emission scenarios during the 21st century. The largest significant trend is evident for RCP 8.5, which projects a precipitation increase of 1.5 mm/year, resulting in a 16% increase in precipitation by the end of the century. The smallest increases are projected to occur under the RCP 2.6 scenario, resulting in only a +6% change by 2100. The regions of greatest precipitation increases are the Tibetan Plateau and eastern China during summer, suggesting a potential change in the monsoonal circulation in the future.

Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. water supplies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frederick, K.D.; Schwarz, G.E.

1999-01-01

A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.

Cirrus cloud spectra and layers observed during the FIRE and GASP projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flatau, Piotr J.; Gultepe, I.; Nastrom, G.; Cotton, William R.; Heymsfield, A. J.

1990-01-01

A general characterization is developed for cirrus clouds in terms of their spectra, shapes, optical thicknesses, and radiative properties for use in numerical models. Data sets from the Global Atmospheric Sampling Project (GASP) of the upper troposphere and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) are combined and analyzed to study general traits of cirrus clouds. A definition is given for 2D turbulence, and the GASP and FIRE data sets are examined with respect to cirrus layers and entrainment and to dominant turbulent scales. The approach employs conditional sampling in cloudy and clear air, power-spectral analysis, and mixing-line-type diagrams. Evidence is given for a well mixed cloud deck and for the tendency of cirrus to be formed in multilayer structures. The results are of use in mesoscale and global circulation models which predict cirrus, in small-scale cirrus modeling, and in studying the role of gravity waves in the horizontal structure of upper tropospheric clouds.

Common Warming Pattern Emerges Irrespective of Forcing Location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Sarah M.; Park, Kiwoong; Jin, Fei-Fei; Stuecker, Malte F.

2017-10-01

The Earth's climate is changing due to the existence of multiple radiative forcing agents. It is under question whether different forcing agents perturb the global climate in a distinct way. Previous studies have demonstrated the existence of similar climate response patterns in response to aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings. In this study, the sensitivity of tropospheric temperature response patterns to surface heating distributions is assessed by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet slab ocean with a wide range of possible forcing patterns. We show that a common climate pattern emerges in response to localized forcing at different locations. This pattern, characterized by enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and the polar lower troposphere, resembles the historical trends from observations and models as well as the future projections. Atmospheric dynamics in combination with thermodynamic air-sea coupling are primarily responsible for shaping this pattern. Identifying this common pattern strengthens our confidence in the projected response to GHG and aerosols in complex climate models.

Simulation of seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation using coupled atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolstykh, M. A.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Kiktev, D. B.

2014-03-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model intended for the simulation of coupled circulation at time scales up to a season is developed. The semi-Lagrangian atmospheric general circulation model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, SLAV, is coupled with the sigma model of ocean general circulation developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), INMOM. Using this coupled model, numerical experiments on ensemble modeling of the atmosphere and ocean circulation for up to 4 months are carried out using real initial data for all seasons of an annual cycle in 1989-2010. Results of these experiments are compared to the results of the SLAV model with the simple evolution of the sea surface temperature. A comparative analysis of seasonally averaged anomalies of atmospheric circulation shows prospects in applying the coupled model for forecasts. It is shown with the example of the El Niño phenomenon of 1997-1998 that the coupled model forecasts the seasonally averaged anomalies for the period of the nonstationary El Niño phase significantly better.

The Ability of a General Circulation Model to represent the Atmospheric Boundary Layer over the Antarctic Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vignon, Etienne; Hourdin, Frédéric; Genthon, Christophe; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Cheruy, Frédérique; Gallée, Hubert; Bazile, Eric; Lefebvre, Marie-Pierre; Van de Wiel, Bas J. H.

2017-04-01

In a General Circulation Model (GCM), the turbulent mixing parametrization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the Antarctic Plateau is critical since it affects the continental scale temperature inversion, the katabatic winds and finally the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the representation of the Antarctic Plateau ABL in the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Zoom (LMDZ) GCM, the atmospheric component of the IPSL Earth System Model in preparation for the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project. We carry out 1D simulations on the fourth Gewex Atmospheric Boundary Layers Study (GABLS4) case, and 3D simulations with the 'zooming capability' of the horizontal grid and with nudging. Simulations are evaluated and validated using in-situ measurements obtained at Dome C, East Antarctic Plateau, and satellite data. Sensitivity tests to surface parameters, vertical grid and turbulent mixing parametrizations led to significant improvements of the model and to a new configuration better adapted for Antarctic conditions. In particular, we point out the need to remove minimum turbulence thresholds to correctly reproduce very steep temperature and wind speed gradients in the stable ABL. We then assess the ability of the GCM to represent the two distinct stable ABL regimes and very strong near-surface temperature inversions, which are fascinating and critical features of the Dome C climate. This leads us to investigate the competition between radiative and turbulent coupling between the ABL and the snow surface in the model. Our results show that the new configuration of LMDZ reproduces reasonnably well the Dome C climatology and it is able to model strong temperature inversions and radiatively-dominated ABL. However, they also reveal a strong sensitivity of the modeling of the different regimes to the radiative scheme and vertical resolution. The present work finally hints at future developments to better and more physically represent the polar ABL in a GCM.

An efficient mode-splitting method for a curvilinear nearshore circulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shi, Fengyan; Kirby, James T.; Hanes, Daniel M.

2007-01-01

A mode-splitting method is applied to the quasi-3D nearshore circulation equations in generalized curvilinear coordinates. The gravity wave mode and the vorticity wave mode of the equations are derived using the two-step projection method. Using an implicit algorithm for the gravity mode and an explicit algorithm for the vorticity mode, we combine the two modes to derive a mixed difference–differential equation with respect to surface elevation. McKee et al.'s [McKee, S., Wall, D.P., and Wilson, S.K., 1996. An alternating direction implicit scheme for parabolic equations with mixed derivative and convective terms. J. Comput. Phys., 126, 64–76.] ADI scheme is then used to solve the parabolic-type equation in dealing with the mixed derivative and convective terms from the curvilinear coordinate transformation. Good convergence rates are found in two typical cases which represent respectively the motions dominated by the gravity mode and the vorticity mode. Time step limitations imposed by the vorticity convective Courant number in vorticity-mode-dominant cases are discussed. Model efficiency and accuracy are verified in model application to tidal current simulations in San Francisco Bight.

Inability of CMIP5 Climate Models to Simulate Recent Multi-decadal Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, S.; Delage, F.; Kociuba, G.; Wang, G.; Smith, I.

2017-12-01

Observed 15-year surface temperature trends beginning 1998 or later have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in models and the implications for global warming generally. Here we analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP5 climate models. All of the models simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This stark difference cannot be fully explained by observed, internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. We also show that CMIP5 models are not able to simulate the magnitude of the strengthening of the Walker Circulation over the past thirty years. Some of the reasons for these major shortcomings in the ability of models to simulate multi-decadal variability in the Pacific, and the impact these findings have on our confidence in global 21st century projections, will be discussed.

Library Circulation Systems: An Overview

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Surace, Cecily J.

1972-01-01

The model circulation system outlined is an on-line real time system in which the circulation file is created from the shelf list. The model extends beyond the operational limits of most existing circulation systems and can be considered a reflection of the current state of the art. (36 references) (Author/NH)

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Statistical wave climate projections for coastal impact assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Losada, I. J.; Izaguirre, C.; Espejo, A.; Menéndez, M.; Pérez, J.

2017-09-01

Global multimodel wave climate projections are obtained at 1.0° × 1.0° scale from 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global circulation model (GCM) realizations. A semi-supervised weather-typing approach based on a characterization of the ocean wave generation areas and the historical wave information from the recent GOW2 database are used to train the statistical model. This framework is also applied to obtain high resolution projections of coastal wave climate and coastal impacts as port operability and coastal flooding. Regional projections are estimated using the collection of weather types at spacing of 1.0°. This assumption is feasible because the predictor is defined based on the wave generation area and the classification is guided by the local wave climate. The assessment of future changes in coastal impacts is based on direct downscaling of indicators defined by empirical formulations (total water level for coastal flooding and number of hours per year with overtopping for port operability). Global multimodel projections of the significant wave height and peak period are consistent with changes obtained in previous studies. Statistical confidence of expected changes is obtained due to the large number of GCMs to construct the ensemble. The proposed methodology is proved to be flexible to project wave climate at different spatial scales. Regional changes of additional variables as wave direction or other statistics can be estimated from the future empirical distribution with extreme values restricted to high percentiles (i.e., 95th, 99th percentiles). The statistical framework can also be applied to evaluate regional coastal impacts integrating changes in storminess and sea level rise.

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.

2002-01-01

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Branscome, Lee E.; Bleck, Rainer; Obrien, Enda

1990-01-01

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Evaluation of surface water budget and assessment the global water cycle for the IPCC AR4 A1B scenario simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, H.; Park, E.; Kwon, W.

2009-12-01

Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies, because humans require water for their survival. Especially, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species. The goal of this study is to assess the closure and annual variations of the water cycles based on the multi-model ensemble approach. In this study, the projection results of the previous works focusing on global and six sub-regions are updated using sixteen atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Before projecting future climate, model performances are evaluated on the simulation of the present-day climate. From the result, we construct and use mainly multi-model ensembles (MMEs), which is referred to as MME9, defined from nine selected AOGCMs of higher performance. Analyzed variables include annual and seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. The overall projection results from MME9 show that most regions will experience warmer and wetter climate at the end of 21st century. The evaporation shows a very similar trend to precipitation, but not in the runoff projection. The internal and inter-model variabilities are larger in the runoff than both precipitation and evaporation. Moreover, the runoff is notably reduced in Europe at the end of 21st century.

Future changes in tropospheric ozone under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawase, Hiroaki; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Sudo, Kengo; Nozawa, Toru

2011-03-01

We consider future changes in tropospheric ozone based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are new emission and concentration scenarios for the 5th coupled model intercomparison project. In contrast to the SRES scenarios, all the RCP scenarios assume an emission reduction of NOx by the late 21st Century that has the potential to achieve tropospheric ozone reduction. However, increasing radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases and changes in CH4 concentration also contribute to differences in the tropospheric ozone distribution among RCP scenarios. In the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, assuming the stabilization of RF, the increase in tropospheric ozone due to enhanced residual circulation is cancelled out by the ozone reduction due to ozone precursor reductions. In contrast, in the RCP8.5, assuming increasing RF even after 2100, further enhanced residual circulation and significant increase in CH4 cause a dramatic increase in tropospheric ozone.

A 4 U laser heterodyne radiometer for methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements from an occultation-viewing CubeSat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Emily L.; DiGregorio, A. J.; Riot, Vincent J.; Ammons, Mark S.; Bruner, William W.; Carter, Darrell; Mao, Jianping; Ramanathan, Anand; Strahan, Susan E.; Oman, Luke D.; Hoffman, Christine; Garner, Richard M.

2017-03-01

We present a design for a 4 U (20 cm  ×  20 cm  ×  10 cm) occultation-viewing laser heterodyne radiometer (LHR) that measures methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O) in the limb that is designed for deployment on a 6 U CubeSat. The LHR design collects sunlight that has undergone absorption by the trace gas and mixes it with a distributive feedback (DFB) laser centered at 1640 nm that scans across CO2, CH4, and H2O absorption features. Upper troposphere/lower stratosphere measurements of these gases provide key inputs to stratospheric circulation models: measuring stratospheric circulation and its variability is essential for projecting how climate change will affect stratospheric ozone.

The role of the Gulf Stream in European climate.

PubMed

Palter, Jaime B

2015-01-01

The Gulf Stream carries the warm, poleward return flow of the wind-driven North Atlantic subtropical gyre and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This northward flow drives a significant meridional heat transport. Various lines of evidence suggest that Gulf Stream heat transport profoundly influences the climate of the entire Northern Hemisphere and, thus, Europe's climate on timescales of decades and longer. The Gulf Stream's influence is mediated through feedback processes between the ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere. This review synthesizes paleoclimate archives, model simulations, and the instrumental record, which collectively suggest that decadal and longer-scale variability of the Gulf Stream's heat transport manifests in changes in European temperature, precipitation, and storminess. Given that anthropogenic climate change is projected to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, associated changes in European climate are expected. However, large uncertainty in the magnitude of the anticipated weakening undermines the predictability of the future climate in Europe.

A Robust Response of the Hadley Circulation to Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2014-01-01

Tropical rainfall is expected to increase in a warmer climate. Yet, recent studies have inferred that the Hadley Circulation (HC), which is primarily driven by latent heating from tropical rainfall, is weakened under global warming. Here, we show evidence of a robust intensification of the HC from analyses of 33 CMIP5 model projections under a scenario of 1 per year CO2 emission increase. The intensification is manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze, characterized by a pronounced increase in the zonal mean ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere, a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone and enhanced rainfall in the deep tropics. These changes occur in conjunction with a rise in the region of maximum outflow of the HC, with accelerated meridional mass outflow in the uppermost branch of the HC away from the equator, coupled to a weakened inflow in the return branches of the HC in the lower troposphere.

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2011-01-01

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

Modeling transport of nutrients & sediment loads into Lake Tahoe under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riverson, John; Coats, Robert; Costa-Cabral, Mariza; Dettinger, Mike; Reuter, John; Sahoo, Goloka; Schladow, Geoffrey

2013-01-01

The outputs from two General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emissions scenarios were downscaled and bias-corrected to develop regional climate change projections for the Tahoe Basin. For one model—the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory or GFDL model—the daily model results were used to drive a distributed hydrologic model. The watershed model used an energy balance approach for computing evapotranspiration and snowpack dynamics so that the processes remain a function of the climate change projections. For this study, all other aspects of the model (i.e. land use distribution, routing configuration, and parameterization) were held constant to isolate impacts of climate change projections. The results indicate that (1) precipitation falling as rain rather than snow will increase, starting at the current mean snowline, and moving towards higher elevations over time; (2) annual accumulated snowpack will be reduced; (3) snowpack accumulation will start later; and (4) snowmelt will start earlier in the year. Certain changes were masked (or counter-balanced) when summarized as basin-wide averages; however, spatial evaluation added notable resolution. While rainfall runoff increased at higher elevations, a drop in total precipitation volume decreased runoff and fine sediment load from the lower elevation meadow areas and also decreased baseflow and nitrogen loads basin-wide. This finding also highlights the important role that the meadow areas could play as high-flow buffers under climatic change. Because the watershed model accounts for elevation change and variable meteorological patterns, it provided a robust platform for evaluating the impacts of projected climate change on hydrology and water quality.

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eyring, V.; Arblaster, J. M.; Cionni, I.; Sedlacek, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Young, P. J.; Bekki, S.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Collins, W. J.;

Patterns and variability of projected bioclimatic habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

PubMed

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

Patterns and Variability of Projected Bioclimatic Habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area

PubMed Central

Chang, Tony; Hansen, Andrew J.; Piekielek, Nathan

2014-01-01

Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980–2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2–29% and 0.04–10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010–2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910–2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios. PMID:25372719

Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Boos, William R.; Braconnot, Pascale; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kang, Sarah M.; Mapes, Brian E.; Scheff, Jacob; Schumacher, Courtney; Sobel, Adam H.; Xie, Shang-Ping

2018-06-01

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.

An analysis of the high-latitude thermospheric wind pattern calculated by a thermospheric general circulation model. I - Momentum forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Killeen, T. L.; Roble, R. G.

1984-01-01

A diagnostic processor (DP) was developed for analysis of hydrodynamic and thermodynamic processes predicted by the NCAR thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM). The TGCM contains a history file on the projected wind, temperature and composition fields at each grid point for each hour of universal time. The DP assimilates the history file plus ion drag tensors and drift velocities, specific heats, coefficients of viscosity, and thermal conductivity and calculates the individual forcing terms for the momentum and energy equations for a given altitude. Sample momentum forcings were calculated for high latitudes in the presence of forcing by solar radiation and magnetospheric convection with a 60 kV cross-tail potential, i.e., conditions on Oct. 21, 1981. It was found that ion drag and pressure forces balance out at F region heights where ion drift velocities are small. The magnetic polar cap/auroral zone boundary featured the largest residual force or net acceleration. Diurnal oscillations were detected in the thermospheric convection, and geostrophic balance was dominant in the E layer.

Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution.

PubMed

Root, Terry L; MacMynowski, Dena P; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

2005-05-24

Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climatic change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data, which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies, we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution," a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally, our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3).

The progressive aridification of southwest North America: The what, the why, the when and the how (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seager, R.; Liu, H.; Henderson, N.; Kushnir, Y.; Ting, M.; Cook, B.; Nakamura, J.

2013-12-01

The latest generation of global coupled climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five (CMIP5), much anticipated after the prior CMIP3 models projected the southwest of North America to transition in the near term to a more arid climate, turned out to be a case of deja-vu all over again. While suggesting that northern California might get more midwinter precipitation, overall the CMIP5 models, like their CMIP3 precursors, project that the interior southwest of the U.S., most of Mexico, Texas and the southern Plains, will progressively transition to a more arid climate with reduced precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration driving a reduction in soil moisture and streamflow. An about 10% reduction of Colorado River flow for the 2021-2040 period relative to the last half of the 20th Century appears a good ball park number to motivate adaptation efforts. Here we will present new detailed analyses of Reanalysis and CMIP5 model moisture budgets to determine the causes of the projected aridification. The role of moisture convergences by the mean and transient flows will be addressed as well as the dynamical causes of the shifts in atmospheric circulation that contribute to drying or locally offset it. The hydroclimate history of the West for the past few decades will also be examined for evidence that model projected aridification is in progress or cannot currently be detected amidst the large natural variability of hydroclimate in the region. But it will be cautioned that waiting for statistical significance might be as fruitful as Waiting for Godot while, during the wait, the southwest will already have transitioned into a troublingly drier climate with serious impacts on people, societies, ecosystems and agriculture.

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Kenneth L.; Ironside, Kirsten; Eischeid, Jon K.; Garfin, Gregg; Duffy, Phil; Toney, Chris

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Rockford Public Library's Circulation Services: A Work Flow Analysis and Spacial Analysis Study with Recommendations and Comments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Titus, Elizabeth; Grant, Wallace

The purpose of this project was to perform an analysis of the Rockford Public Library (Illinois) circulation services department and provide recommendations leading to customer service improvement, better space utilization, and improved departmental work flow. Based on an analysis of input from individual interviews with staff, review of…

The contrasting response of Hadley circulation to different meridional structure of sea surface temperature in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Li, Jianping; Zhu, Jianlei; Li, Yang; Li, Fei

2018-02-01

The response of the Hadley circulation (HC) to the sea surface temperature (SST) is determined by the meridional structure of SST and varies according to the changing nature of this meridional structure. The capability of the models from the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is utilized to represent the contrast response of the HC to different meridional SST structures. To evaluate the responses, the variations of HC and SST were linearly decomposed into two components: the equatorially asymmetric (HEA for HC, and SEA for SST) and equatorially symmetric (HES for HC, and SES for SST) components. The result shows that the climatological features of HC and tropical SST (including the spatial structures and amplitude) are reasonably simulated in all the models. However, the response contrast of HC to different SST meridional structures shows uncertainties among models. This may be due to the fact that the long-term temporal variabilities of HEA, HES, and SEA are limited reproduced in the models, although the spatial structures of their long-term variabilities are relatively reasonably simulated. These results indicate that the performance of the CMIP5 models to simulate long-term temporal variability of different meridional SST structures and related HC variations plays a fundamental role in the successful reproduction of the response of HC to different meridional SST structures.

Wind-Stress Simulations and Equatorial Dynamics in an AGCM. Part 1; Basic Results from a 1979-1999 Forced SST Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bacmeister, Julio T.; Suarez, Max J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This is the first of a two part study examining the connection of the equatorial momentum budget in an AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model), with simulated equatorial surface wind stresses over the Pacific. The AGCM used in this study forms part of a newly developed coupled forecasting system used at NASA's Seasonal- to-Interannual Prediction Project. Here we describe the model and present results from a 20-year (1979-1999) AMIP-type experiment forced with observed SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures). Model results are compared them with available observational data sets. The climatological pattern of extra-tropical planetary waves as well as their ENSO-related variability is found to agree quite well with re-analysis estimates. The model's surface wind stress is examined in detail, and reveals a reasonable overall simulation of seasonal interannual variability, as well as seasonal mean distributions. However, an excessive annual oscillation in wind stress over the equatorial central Pacific is found. We examine the model's divergent circulation over the tropical Pacific and compare it with estimates based on re-analysis data. These comparisons are generally good, but reveal excessive upper-level convergence in the central Pacific. In Part II of this study a direct examination of individual terms in the AGCM's momentum budget is presented. We relate the results of this analysis to the model's simulation of surface wind stress.

Middle atmosphere project. A semi-spectral numerical model for the large-scale stratospheric circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holton, J. R.; Wehrbein, W.

1979-01-01

The complete model is a semispectral model in which the longitudinal dependence is represented by expansion in zonal harmonics while the latitude and height dependencies are represented by a finite difference grid. The model is based on the primitive equations in the log pressure coordinate system. The lower boundary of the model domain is set at the 100 mb level (i.e., near the tropopause) and the effects of tropospheric forcing are included in the lower boundary condition. The upper boundary is at approximately 96 km, and the latitudinal extent is either global or hemispheric. The basic differential equations and boundary conditions are outlined. The finite difference equations are described. The initial conditions are discussed and a sample calculation is presented. The FORTRAN code is given in the appendix.

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; ...

2016-08-01

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representativemore » Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H +] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO 2 concentrations – Q 10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q 10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.« less

Effects of wetland management on carrying capacity of diving ducks and shorebirds in a coastal estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brand, L. Arriana; Takekawa, John Y.; Shinn, Joel; Graham, Tanya; Buffington, Kevin; Gustafson, K. Benjamin; Smith, Lacy M.; Spring, Sarah E.; Miles, A. Keith

2014-01-01

With global loss of natural wetlands, managed wetlands increasingly support energy requirements for wintering shorebirds and waterfowl. Despite numerous studies of avian bioenergetics in freshwater systems, less is known of the energetic capacity of estuarine systems. In San Francisco Bay, managed saline ponds converted from former commercial salt evaporation ponds form part of the largest wetland restoration project on the Pacific coast of North America. A daily-ration model was applied to assess carrying capacity for diving ducks and shorebirds during four winter seasons (2007–2010) in seasonal and circulation ponds, each in two salinity classes. Diving ducks comprised an estimated 35,450 ± 1,559 (x ± SE) in average years and 45,458 ± 1,653 in peak years with > 95% in circulation ponds. Shorebirds comprised 64,253 ± 14,838 (x ± SE) in average years and 108,171 ± 4,854 in peak years with > 64% in seasonal ponds. Macroinvertebrate energy density was highest in mesohaline (5–30 ppt) circulation ponds and lowest in seasonal ponds for both guilds. Energy requirements for diving ducks in mesohaline followed by low-hyperhaline (30–80 ppt) circulation ponds were mostly met by available prey energy. Available energy for shorebirds was substantially less than they required in seasonal ponds but exceeded their needs in mesohaline circulation ponds. Mesohaline circulation ponds supported 9,443 ± 1,649 (x ± SE) shorebird use-days·ha-1 of accessible habitat and 2,297 ± 402 diving duck use-days·ha-1 of accessible habitat, twice the capacity of low-hyperhaline circulation ponds and greater than five times that of seasonal ponds for both guilds. Our results indicated that reducing salinity to mesohaline levels and altering water depth to increase accessibility substantially increased energy available for these species in estuarine managed ponds.

Effects of wetland management on carrying capacity of diving ducks and shorebirds in a coastal estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brand, Arianna L.; Takekawa, John Y.; Shinn, Joel; Graham, Tanya R.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Gustafson, K. Ben; Smith, Lacy M.; Spring, Sarah E.; Miles, A. Keith

2014-01-01

With global loss of natural wetlands, managed wetlands increasingly support energy requirements for wintering shorebirds and waterfowl. Despite numerous studies of avian bioenergetics in freshwater systems, less is known of the energetic capacity of estuarine systems. In San Francisco Bay, managed saline ponds converted from former commercial salt evaporation ponds form part of the largest wetland restoration project on the Pacific coast of North America. A daily-ration model was applied to assess carrying capacity for diving ducks and shorebirds during four winter seasons (2007–2010) in seasonal and circulation ponds, each in two salinity classes. Diving ducks comprised an estimated 35,450 ± 1,559 ( ± SE) in average years and 45,458 ± 1,653 in peak years with > 95% in circulation ponds. Shorebirds comprised 64,253 ± 14,838 ( ± SE) in average years and 108,171 ± 4,854 in peak years with > 64% in seasonal ponds. Macroinvertebrate energy density was highest in mesohaline (5–30 ppt) circulation ponds and lowest in seasonal ponds for both guilds. Energy requirements for diving ducks in mesohaline followed by low-hyperhaline (30–80 ppt) circulation ponds were mostly met by available prey energy. Available energy for shorebirds was substantially less than they required in seasonal ponds but exceeded their needs in mesohaline circulation ponds. Mesohaline circulation ponds supported 9,443 ± 1,649 ( ± SE) shorebird use-days·ha-1 of accessible habitat and 2,297 ± 402 diving duck use-days·ha-1 of accessible habitat, twice the capacity of low-hyperhaline circulation ponds and greater than five times that of seasonal ponds for both guilds. Our results indicated that reducing salinity to mesohaline levels and altering water depth to increase accessibility substantially increased energy available for these species in estuarine managed ponds.

On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of extreme water levels and their return periods with similar estimates derived from local observations reveals an interesting pattern of match and mismatch. The match is almost perfect in measurement sites where local effects (e.g., wave-induced set-up or local surge in very shallow areas that are not resolved by circulation models) do not contribute to the observed values of water level. There is, however, substantial mismatch between projected and observed extreme values for most of the Estonian coast. The mismatch is largest for sections that are open to high waves and for several bays that are deeply cut into mainland but open for predominant strong wind directions. Detailed quantification of this mismatch eventually makes it possible to develop substantially improved estimates of extreme water levels in sections where local effects considerably contribute into the total water level.

Numerical Simulations of Airflows and Tracer Transport in the Southwestern United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, Tetsuji

2000-03-01

Project MOHAVE (Measurement of Haze and Visual Effects) produced a unique set of tracer data over the southwestern United States. During the summer of 1992, a perfluorocarbon tracer gas was released from the Mohave Power Project (MPP), a large coal-fired facility in southern Nevada. Three-dimensional atmospheric models, the Higher-Order Turbulence Model for Atmospheric Circulation-Random Puff Transport and Diffusion (HOTMAC-RAPTAD), were used to simulate the concentrations of tracer gas that were observed during a portion of the summer intensive period of Project MOHAVE. The study area extended from northwestern Arizona to southern Nevada and included Lake Mead, the Colorado River Valley, the Grand Canyon National Park, and MPP. The computational domain was 368 km in the east-west direction by 252 km in the north-south direction. Rawinsonde and radar wind profiler data were used to provide initial and boundary conditions to HOTMAC simulations. HOTMAC with a horizontal grid spacing of 4 km was able to simulate the diurnal variations of drainage and upslope flows along the Grand Canyon and Colorado River Valley. HOTMAC also captured the diurnal variations of turbulence, which played important roles for the transport and diffusion simulations by RAPTAD. The modeled tracer gas concentrations were compared with observations. The model's performance was evaluated statistically.

Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Tilele; Madani, Kaveh

2016-11-01

Agriculture is the mainstay of Malawi’s economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), adverse effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in Malawi are expected to be significant. We examined the impacts of CC on maize production and food security in Malawi’s dominant cereal producing region, Lilongwe District. We used five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to make future (2011 to 2100) rainfall and temperature projections and simulated maize yields under these projections. Our future rainfall projections did not reveal a strong increasing or decreasing trend, but temperatures are expected to increase. Our crop modelling results, for the short-term future, suggest that maize farming might benefit from CC. However, faster crop growth could worsen Malawi’s soil fertility problem. Increasing temperature could drive lower maize yields in the medium to long-term future. Consequently, up to 12% of the population in Lilongwe District might be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century. Measures to increase soil fertility and moisture must be developed to build resilience into Malawi’s agriculture sector.

Emerging climate change signals in the interior ocean oxygen content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Schwinger, Jörg; Lauvset, Siv

2017-04-01

Earth System Models (ESMs) indicate that human-induced climate change will introduce spatially heterogeneous modifications of dissolved oxygen in the North Atlantic. In the upper ocean, an increase (decrease) is predicted at low (high) latitude. Oxygen increase is driven by a reduction of the oxygen consumption for biological remineralization while warming-induced reduction in air-sea fluxes and increase in remineralization due to weaker overturning circulation lead to the projected decrease. In the interior ocean, modifications in the apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) dominate the overall oxygen changes. Moreover, for the southern subpolar gyre, both observations and model hindcast indicate a close relationship between interior ocean oxygen and the subpolar gyre index. Over the 21st century, all ESMs consistently project a steady weakening of this index and consequently the oxygen. Our finding shows that climate change-induced oxygen depletion in the interior has likely occurred and can already be detected. Nevertheless, considering the observational uncertainties, we show that in the proximity of southern subpolar gyre the projected interior trend is sufficiently large enough for early detection.

Remote forcing at the Last Glacial Maximum in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreasen, Dyke H.; Ravelo, A. Christina; Broccoli, Anthony J.

2001-01-01

We present results of a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) wind stress sensitivity experiment using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model of the tropical Pacific Ocean. LGM wind stress, used to drive the ocean model, was generated using an atmospheric general circulation model simulation forced by LGM boundary conditions as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) [Broccoli, 2000]. LGM wind stress anomalies were large in the western half of the basin, yet there was a significant hydrographic response in the eastern half. This ocean model experiment hind casts changes that are in close agreement with paleoceanographic data from the entire region, even without the explicit modeling of the air-sea interactions. Data and model both predict that the annual average thermocline tilt across the basin was enhanced. Data and model are consistent with a stronger equatorial undercurrent which shoaled to the west of where it does today, and stronger advection of water from the Peru Current into the east equatorial Pacific and across the equator. Paleoproductivity and sea surface temperature (SST) data are interpreted in light of the modeling results, indicating that paleoproductivity changes were related to wind-forced dynamical changes resulting from LGM boundary conditions, while SST changes were related to independent, possibly radiative, forcing. Overall, our results imply that much of the dynamic response of the tropical Pacific during the LGM can be explained by wind field changes resulting from global LGM boundary conditions.

Tidal influences on a future evolution of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf cavity in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Rachael D.; Hattermann, Tore; Howard, Susan L.; Padman, Laurie

2018-02-01

Recent modeling studies of ocean circulation in the southern Weddell Sea, Antarctica, project an increase over this century of ocean heat into the cavity beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS). This increase in ocean heat would lead to more basal melting and a modification of the FRIS ice draft. The corresponding change in cavity shape will affect advective pathways and the spatial distribution of tidal currents, which play important roles in basal melting under FRIS. These feedbacks between heat flux, basal melting, and tides will affect the evolution of FRIS under the influence of a changing climate. We explore these feedbacks with a three-dimensional ocean model of the southern Weddell Sea that is forced by thermodynamic exchange beneath the ice shelf and tides along the open boundaries. Our results show regionally dependent feedbacks that, in some areas, substantially modify the melt rates near the grounding lines of buttressed ice streams that flow into FRIS. These feedbacks are introduced by variations in meltwater production as well as the circulation of this meltwater within the FRIS cavity; they are influenced locally by sensitivity of tidal currents to water column thickness (wct) and non-locally by changes in circulation pathways that transport an integrated history of mixing and meltwater entrainment along flow paths. Our results highlight the importance of including explicit tidal forcing in models of future mass loss from FRIS and from the adjacent grounded ice sheet as individual ice-stream grounding zones experience different responses to warming of the ocean inflow.

Baroclinic stabilization effect of the Atlantic-Arctic water exchange simulated by the eddy-permitting ocean model and global atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moshonkin, Sergey; Bagno, Alexey; Gritsun, Andrey; Gusev, Anatoly

2017-04-01

Numerical experiments were performed with the global atmosphere-ocean model INMCM5 (for version of the international project CMIP6, resolution for atmosphere is 2°x1.5°, 21 level) and with the three-dimensional, free surface, sigma coordinate eddy-permitting ocean circulation model for Atlantic (from 30°S) - Arctic and Bering sea domain (0.25 degrees resolution, Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model or INMOM). Spatial resolution of the INMCM5 oceanic component is 0.5°x0.25°. Both models have 40 s-levels in ocean. Previously, the simulations were carried out for INMCM5 to generate climatic system stable state. Then model was run for 180 years. In the experiment with INMOM, CORE-II data for 1948-2009 were used. As the goal for comparing results of two these numerical models, we selected evolution of the density and velocity anomalies in the 0-300m active ocean layer near Fram Strait in the Greenland Sea, where oceanic cyclonic circulation influences Atlantic-Arctic water exchange. Anomalies were count without climatic seasonal cycle for time scales smaller than 30 years. We use Singular Value Decomposition analysis (SVD) for density-velocity anomalies with time lag from minus one to six months. Both models perform identical stable physical result. They reveal that changes of heat and salt transports by West Spitsbergen and East Greenland currents, caused by atmospheric forcing, produce the baroclinic modes of velocity anomalies in 0-300m layer, thereby stabilizing ocean response on the atmospheric forcing, which stimulates keeping water exchange between the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean at the certain climatological level. The first SVD-mode of density-velocity anomalies is responsible for the cyclonic circulation variability. The second and third SVD-modes stabilize existing ocean circulation by the anticyclonic vorticity generation. The second and third SVD-modes give 35% of the input to the total dispersion of density anomalies and 16-18% of the input to the total dispersion of velocity anomalies for numerical results as in INMCM5 so in INMOM models. Input to the total dispersion of velocity anomalies for the first SVD-mode is equal to 50% for INMCM5 and only 19% for INMOM. The research was done in the INM RAS. The model INMOM was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant №16-05-00534), and the model INMCM was supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation (grant №14-27-00126).

A blood circulation model for reference man

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Williams, L.R.

This paper describes a dynamic blood circulation model that predicts the movement and gradual dispersal of a bolus of material in the circulation after its intravascular injection into an adult human. The main purpose of the model is to improve the dosimetry of internally deposited radionuclides that decay in the circulation to a significant extent. The total blood volume is partitioned into the blood contents of 24 separate organs or tissues, right heart chambers, left heart chambers, pulmonary circulation, arterial outflow to the systemic tissues (aorta and large arteries), and venous return from the systemic tissues (large veins). As amore » compromise between physical reality and computational simplicity, the circulation of blood is viewed as a system of first-order transfers between blood pools, with the delay time depending on the mean transit time across the pool. The model allows consideration of incomplete, tissue-dependent extraction of material during passage through the circulation and return of material from tissues to plasma.« less

Solar related waves in the Venusian atmosphere from the cloud tops to 100 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elson, L. S.

1983-01-01

A quasi-linear diagnostic model using observed solar-related temperatures and a specified solar mean circulation and surface structure to find the solar-related circulation above the clouds of Venus is presented. Despite the greater dependence of model-derived, solar-related circulation on the mean flow than is the case for terrestrial tides, as well as the uncertainty concerning this mean flow, significant conclusions are drawn for the solar-related circulation and thermal structure of Venus. An anomalously large response is found in the polar regions, due to the model's requirement of a process such as dissipation which will act as a major sink for momentum. Dissipation is specified in the model as Rayleigh friction with an unknown free parameter coefficient. In view of this, dissipation is either very efficient by terrestrial standards and accompanied by small solar-related circulation, or similar to that of earth and possessed of a circulation large enough to have an impact on the mean circulation.

Use of an Existing Airborne Radon Data Base in the Verification of the NASA/AEAP Core Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kritz, Mark A.

1998-01-01

The primary objective of this project was to apply the tropospheric atmospheric radon (Rn222) measurements to the development and verification of the global 3-D atmospheric chemical transport model under development by NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP). The AEAP project had two principal components: (1) a modeling effort, whose goal was to create, test and apply an elaborate three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model (the NASA/AEAP Core model to an evaluation of the possible short and long-term effects of aircraft emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate--and (2) a measurement effort, whose goal was to obtain a focused set of atmospheric measurements that would provide some of the observational data used in the modeling effort. My activity in this project was confined to the first of these components. Both atmospheric transport and atmospheric chemical reactions (as well the input and removal of chemical species) are accounted for in the NASA/AEAP Core model. Thus, for example, in assessing the effect of aircraft effluents on the chemistry of a given region of the upper troposphere, the model must keep track not only of the chemical reactions of the effluent species emitted by aircraft flying in this region, but also of the transport into the region of these (and other) species from other, remote sources--for example, via the vertical convection of boundary layer air to the upper troposphere. Radon, because of its known surface source and known radioactive half-life, and freedom from chemical production or loss, and from removal from the atmosphere by physical scavenging, is a recognized and valuable tool for testing the transport components of global transport and circulation models.

Problems with the North American Monsoon in CMIP/IPCC GCM Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiffer, N. J.; Nesbitt, S. W.

2011-12-01

Successful water management in the Desert Southwest and surrounding areas hinges on anticipating the timing and distribution of precipitation. IPCC AR4 models predict a more arid climate, more extreme precipitation events, and an earlier peak in springtime streamflow in the North American Monsoon region as the area warms. This study aims to assess the summertime skill with which general circulation models (GCMs) simulate precipitation and related dynamics over this region, a necessary precursor to reliable hydroclimate projections. Thirty-year climatologies of several GCMs in the third and fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) are statistically evaluated against each other and observed climatology for their skill in representing the location, timing, variability, character, and large-scale forcing of precipitation over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The results of this study will lend greater credence to more detailed, higher resolution studies, based on the CMIP and IPCC models, of the region's future hydrology. Our ultimate goal is to provide guidance such that decision-makers can plan future water management with more confidence.

Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Flores, A. N.; Benner, S. G.

2017-12-01

In semiarid and arid regions where water supply is intensively managed, future water scarcity is a product of complex interactions between climate change and human activities. Evaluating future water scarcity under alternative scenarios of climate change, therefore, necessitates modeling approaches that explicitly represent the coupled biophysical and social processes responsible for the redistribution of water in these regions. At regional scales a particular challenge lies in adequately capturing not only the central tendencies of change in projections of climate change, but also the associated plausible range of variability in those projections. This study develops a framework that combines a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. The method generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations, avoiding deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations. Three climate change scenario groups reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 future projections are developed. Importantly, the model explicitly captures the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights in a rapidly growing, semi-arid human-environment system in southwest Idaho. We use this modeling framework to project water use and scarcity patterns under the three future climate change scenarios. The model is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling framework. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The increase of temperature has a direct influence on the increase of the irrigation water use and water scarcity, while the influence of increased precipitation on water use is less clear. The predicted changes are potentially useful in identifying areas in the watershed particularly sensitive to water scarcity, the relative importance of changes in precipitation versus temperature as a driver of scarcity, and potential shortcomings of the current water management framework in the region.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

Uncertainties of statistical downscaling from predictor selection: Equifinality and transferability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Guobin; Charles, Stephen P.; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Ekström, Marie; Potter, Nick J.

2018-05-01

The nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) statistical downscaling model, 38 catchments in southeast Australia and 19 general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this study to demonstrate statistical downscaling uncertainties caused by equifinality to and transferability. That is to say, there could be multiple sets of predictors that give similar daily rainfall simulation results for both calibration and validation periods, but project different amounts (or even directions of change) of rainfall changing in the future. Results indicated that two sets of predictors (Set 1 with predictors of sea level pressure north-south gradient, u-wind at 700 hPa, v-wind at 700 hPa, and specific humidity at 700 hPa and Set 2 with predictors of sea level pressure north-south gradient, u-wind at 700 hPa, v-wind at 700 hPa, and dewpoint temperature depression at 850 hPa) as inputs to the NHMM produced satisfactory results of seasonal rainfall in comparison with observations. For example, during the model calibration period, the relative errors across the 38 catchments ranged from 0.48 to 1.76% with a mean value of 1.09% for the predictor Set 1, and from 0.22 to 2.24% with a mean value of 1.16% for the predictor Set 2. However, the changes of future rainfall from NHMM projections based on 19 GCMs produced projections with a different sign for these two different sets of predictors: Set 1 predictors project an increase of future rainfall with magnitudes depending on future time periods and emission scenarios, but Set 2 predictors project a decline of future rainfall. Such divergent projections may present a significant challenge for applications of statistical downscaling as well as climate change impact studies, and could potentially imply caveats in many existing studies in the literature.

Dengue: recent past and future threats

PubMed Central

Rogers, David J.

2015-01-01

This article explores four key questions about statistical models developed to describe the recent past and future of vector-borne diseases, with special emphasis on dengue: (1) How many variables should be used to make predictions about the future of vector-borne diseases?(2) Is the spatial resolution of a climate dataset an important determinant of model accuracy?(3) Does inclusion of the future distributions of vectors affect predictions of the futures of the diseases they transmit?(4) Which are the key predictor variables involved in determining the distributions of vector-borne diseases in the present and future?Examples are given of dengue models using one, five or 10 meteorological variables and at spatial resolutions of from one-sixth to two degrees. Model accuracy is improved with a greater number of descriptor variables, but is surprisingly unaffected by the spatial resolution of the data. Dengue models with a reduced set of climate variables derived from the HadCM3 global circulation model predictions for the 1980s are improved when risk maps for dengue's two main vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) are also included as predictor variables; disease and vector models are projected into the future using the global circulation model predictions for the 2020s, 2040s and 2080s. The Garthwaite–Koch corr-max transformation is presented as a novel way of showing the relative contribution of each of the input predictor variables to the map predictions. PMID:25688021

Numerical Hindcast Experiments for Study Tropical Convections and MJO Events during Year of Tropical Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chern, J.; Tao, W.; Shen, B.

2011-12-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant component of intraseasonal variability in the tropic. It interacts and influences a wide range of weather and climate phenomena across different temporal and spatial scales. Despite the important role the MJO plays in the weather and climate system, past multi-model MJO intercomparison studies have shown that current global general circulation models (GCMs) still have considerable shortcomings in representing and forecasting this phenomenon. To improve representation of MJO and tropical convective cloud systems in global model, an Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) in which a cloud-resolving model takes the place of the sing-column cumulus parameterization used in convectional GCMs has been successfully developed at NAAS Goddard (Tao et al. 2009). To evaluate and improve the ability of this modeling system in representation and prediction of the MJO, several numerical hindcast experiments of a few selected MJO events during YOTC have been carried out. The ability of the model to simulate the MJO events is examined using diagnostic and skill metrics developed by the CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project as well as comparisons with a high-resolution global mesoscale model simulations, satellite observations, and analysis dataset. Several key variables associated with the MJO are investigated, including precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, large-scale circulation, surface latent heat flux, low-level moisture convergence, vertical structure of moisture and hydrometers, and vertical diabatic heating profiles to gain insight of cloud processes associated with the MJO events.

The Hornsund fjord - modeling of the general circulation, heat exchange and water masses transport.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Przyborska, Anna; Jakacki, Jaromir; Kosecki, Szymon; Sundfjord, Arild

2015-04-01

The MIKE3D hydrodynamic model has been implemented for diagnosis an ecosystem status in the most southern fjord of the Svalbard Archipelago. The model is based on MIKE 3 Flow Model FM that uses flexible mesh grid. The spatial discretization in solutions of equations is performed by the finite element method. The regional scale of the model implicated implementation of external data at the lateral boundary region. In our case Flather's boundary condition let us to force the model with combined information. At the same time tidal ordinate and barotropic component of velocity that reflects the West Spitsbergen Current are implemented. Also salinity and temperature were nested at the boundary area. The upper boundary conditions was also introduced. The data for the boundary were taken from Global Tide Model (all tidal components), an 800 m ROMS simulation of the Svalbard area made by the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research (bartoropic velocities, temperature and salinity), European Centre for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and also from Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). Implemented model was validated and the mean circulation and its seasonal variability will be presented. Also influence of the shelf water masses on the fjord will be discussed. Fresh water transport from glaciers, run off and snow will be estimated. Results are based on 5 years simulation (2005-2010) This work was partially performed in the frame of the projects GAME (DEC-2012/04/A/NZ8/00661) and AWAKE2 (Pol-Nor/198675/17/2013)

Response of the pelagic system of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California Peninsula to the projected effects of climate change: insights from a numerical model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, B.; Rivas, D.

2015-12-01

The response of the physical and biological dynamics of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California to the projected effects of climate change are studied using numerical simulations. This region is part of the California Current System, which is a highly productive ecosystem due to the seasonal upwelling, supporting all the trophic levels and important fisheries. The response of the ecosystem to the effects of climate change is uncertain and the information generated by models could be useful to predict future conditions. A three-dimensional hydrodinamical model is coupled to a Nitrate-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) trophic model, and it is forced by the GFDL 3.0 model outputs. Monthly climatologies of variables such as temperature, nutrients, wind, and ocean circulation patterns during the historical period 1985-2005 are compared to the available observed data in order to assess the model's ability to reproduce the observed patterns. The system's response to a high-emission scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also studied. The experiments are carried out using data correspondig to the RCP 6.0 scenario during the period 2006-2050.

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: historical simulations and future changes with the new high-resolution Arpege AGCM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilon, R.; Chauvin, F.; Palany, P.; Belmadani, A.

2017-12-01

A new version of the variable high-resolution Meteo-France Arpege atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) has been developed for tropical cyclones (TC) studies, with a focus on the North Atlantic basin, where the model horizontal resolution is 15 km. Ensemble historical AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type simulations (1965-2014) and future projections (2020-2080) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario have been produced. TC-like vortices tracking algorithm is used to investigate TC activity and variability. TC frequency, genesis, geographical distribution and intensity are examined. Historical simulations are compared to best-track and reanalysis datasets. Model TC frequency is generally realistic but tends to be too high during the rst decade of the historical simulations. Biases appear to originate from both the tracking algorithm and model climatology. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate extremely well intense TCs corresponding to category 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic, where grid resolution is highest. Interaction between developing TCs and vertical wind shear is shown to be contributing factor for TC variability. Future changes in TC activity and properties are also discussed.

Linking Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge and Marine production in Greenland via Fiord Circulation. 'FreshLink', an Interdisciplinary Project Involving Researchers from Multiple Countries.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bøggild, C. E.; Rysgaard, S.; Mortensen, J.; Kallenborn, R.; Truffer, M.; Forsberg, R.; Ahlstrøm, A. P.; Petersen, D.

2008-12-01

This interdisciplinary and international project has recently been initiated mainly with IPY funding from Denmark and Greenland. In short the project investigates the linkage between ice sheet freshwater release to a fiord near Nuuk (South-western Greenland) and the resulting fiord circulation. The low density melt water draining into the innermost of the long fiord forms a brackish outward sloping top layer, which exits the fiord and is balanced by entrance of nutritious salty oceanic water below. Such nutritious water, in turn, favors marine production in the fiord. The perspectives of a warmer climate, where more ice sheet melt water will increase the marine production, is of vital interest to investigate for the Greenland society because the present export from the country is totally dominated by living resources of the oceans. This interdisciplinary research project involves scientists from Greenland, Norway, Denmark and USA. Scientific disciplines presently covered are; marine ecology (biological production), cryospheric sciences (ice sheet and snow-water release), pollution chemistry (separating present from ancient precipitation), marine geology (history of freshwater input), oceanography (fiord circulation), geodesy (cryospheric elevation changes), and hydrology (land runoff). First field results will be presented together with the perspectives for linking each fresh water component coming from land and ice to the observed freshwater budget in the fiord.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, 3D Cloud-Resolving Model and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional singlecolumn models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from Merent geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloudscale model (termed a super-parameterization or multiscale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameteridon NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D Goddard cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF in being developed and production nms will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), (3) A cloud library generated by Goddard MMF, and 3D GCE model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Final Technical Report for "High-resolution global modeling of the effects of subgrid-scale clouds and turbulence on precipitating cloud systems"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larson, Vincent

2016-11-25

The Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) embeds a cloud-resolving model in each grid column of a General Circulation Model (GCM). A MMF model does not need to use a deep convective parameterization, and thereby dispenses with the uncertainties in such parameterizations. However, MMF models grossly under-resolve shallow boundary-layer clouds, and hence those clouds may still benefit from parameterization. In this grant, we successfully created a climate model that embeds a cloud parameterization (“CLUBB”) within a MMF model. This involved interfacing CLUBB’s clouds with microphysics and reducing computational cost. We have evaluated the resulting simulated clouds and precipitation with satellite observations. Themore » chief benefit of the project is to provide a MMF model that has an improved representation of clouds and that provides improved simulations of precipitation.« less

Indigenous Waters: Applying the SWAT Hydrological Model to the Lumbee River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, J.; Singh, N.; Martin, K. L.; Vose, J. M.; Wear, D. N.; Emanuel, R. E.

2016-12-01

Hydrological modeling can reveal insight about how rainfall becomes streamflow in a watershed comprising heterogeneous soils, terrain and land cover. Modeling can also help disentangle predicted impacts of climate and land use change on hydrological processes. We applied a hydrological model to the Lumbee River watershed, also known as the Lumber River Watershed, in the coastal plain of North Carolina (USA) to better understand how streamflow may be impacted by predicted climate and land use change in the mid-21st century. The Lumbee River flows through a predominantly Native American community, which may be affected by changing water resources during this period. The long-term goal of our project is to predict the effects of climate and land use change on the Lumbee River watershed and on the Native community that relies upon the river. We applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool for ArcGIS (ArcSWAT), which was calibrated to historical climate and USGS streamflow data during the late 20th century, and we determined frequency distributions for key model parameters that best predicted streamflow during this time period. After calibrating and validating the model during the historical period, we identified land use and climate projections to represent a range of future conditions in the watershed. Specifically, we selected downscaled climate forcing data from four general circulation models running the RCP8.5 scenario. We also selected land use projections from a cornerstone scenario of the USDA Forest Service's Southern Forest Futures Project. This presentation reports on our methods for propagating parameter and climatic uncertainty through model predictions, and it reports on spatial patterns of land use change predicted by the cornerstone scenario.

Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River, New Zealand)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jobst, Andreas M.; Kingston, Daniel G.; Cullen, Nicolas J.; Schmid, Josef

2018-06-01

As climate change is projected to alter both temperature and precipitation, snow-controlled mid-latitude catchments are expected to experience substantial shifts in their seasonal regime, which will have direct implications for water management. In order to provide authoritative projections of climate change impacts, the uncertainty inherent to all components of the modelling chain needs to be accounted for. This study assesses the uncertainty in potential impacts of climate change on the hydro-climate of a headwater sub-catchment of New Zealand's largest catchment (the Clutha River) using a fully distributed hydrological model (WaSiM) and unique ensemble encompassing different uncertainty sources: general circulation model (GCM), emission scenario, bias correction and snow model. The inclusion of snow models is particularly important, given that (1) they are a rarely considered aspect of uncertainty in hydrological modelling studies, and (2) snow has a considerable influence on seasonal patterns of river flow in alpine catchments such as the Clutha. Projected changes in river flow for the 2050s and 2090s encompass substantial increases in streamflow from May to October, and a decline between December and March. The dominant drivers are changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation (for the 2090s +29 to +84 % in winter) and substantial decreases in the seasonal snow storage due to temperature increase. A quantitative comparison of uncertainty identified GCM structure as the dominant contributor in the seasonal streamflow signal (44-57 %) followed by emission scenario (16-49 %), bias correction (4-22 %) and snow model (3-10 %). While these findings suggest that the role of the snow model is comparatively small, its contribution to the overall uncertainty was still found to be noticeable for winter and summer.

Complex mean circulation over the inner shelf south of Martha's Vineyard revealed by observations and a high-resolution model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Lentz, Steven J.; Kirincich, Anthony R.; Farrar, J. Thomas

2011-01-01

Inner-shelf circulation is governed by the interaction between tides, baroclinic forcing, winds, waves, and frictional losses; the mean circulation ultimately governs exchange between the coast and ocean. In some cases, oscillatory tidal currents interact with bathymetric features to generate a tidally rectified flow. Recent observational and modeling efforts in an overlapping domain centered on the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO) provided an opportunity to investigate the spatial and temporal complexity of circulation on the inner shelf. ADCP and surface radar observations revealed a mean circulation pattern that was highly variable in the alongshore and cross-shore directions. Nested modeling incrementally improved representation of the mean circulation as grid resolution increased and indicated tidal rectification as the generation mechanism of a counter-clockwise gyre near the MVCO. The loss of model skill with decreasing resolution is attributed to insufficient representation of the bathymetric gradients (Δh/h), which is important for representing nonlinear interactions between currents and bathymetry. The modeled momentum balance was characterized by large spatial variability of the pressure gradient and horizontal advection terms over short distances, suggesting that observed inner-shelf momentum balances may be confounded. Given the available observational and modeling data, this work defines the spatially variable mean circulation and its formation mechanism—tidal rectification—and illustrates the importance of model resolution for resolving circulation and constituent exchange near the coast. The results of this study have implications for future observational and modeling studies near the MVCO and other inner-shelf locations with alongshore bathymetric variability.

Response of deciduous trees spring phenology to recent and projected climate change in Central Lithuania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juknys, Romualdas; Kanapickas, Arvydas; Šveikauskaitė, Irma; Sujetovienė, Gintarė

2016-10-01

The analysis of long-term time series of spring phenology for different deciduous trees species has shown that leaf unfolding for all the investigated species is the most sensitive to temperatures in March and April and illustrates that forcing temperature is the main driver of the advancement of leaf unfolding. Available chilling amount has increased by 22.5 % over the last 90 years, indicating that in the investigated geographical region there is no threat of chilling shortage. The projection of climatic parameters for Central Lithuania on the basis of three global circulation models has shown that under the optimistic climate change scenario (RCP 2.6) the mean temperature tends to increase by 1.28 °C and under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) by 5.03 °C until the end of the current century. Recently, different statistical models are used not only to analyze but also to project the changes in spring phenology. Our study has shown that when the data of long-term phenological observations are available, multiple regression models are suitable for the projection of the advancement of leaf unfolding under the changing climate. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected advancement in leaf unfolding for early-season species birch consists of almost 15 days as an average of all three used GSMs. Markedly less response to the projected far future (2071-2100), climate change is foreseen for other investigated climax species: -9 days for lime, 10 days for oak, and 11 days for maple.

Response of deciduous trees spring phenology to recent and projected climate change in Central Lithuania.

PubMed

Juknys, Romualdas; Kanapickas, Arvydas; Šveikauskaitė, Irma; Sujetovienė, Gintarė

2016-10-01

The analysis of long-term time series of spring phenology for different deciduous trees species has shown that leaf unfolding for all the investigated species is the most sensitive to temperatures in March and April and illustrates that forcing temperature is the main driver of the advancement of leaf unfolding. Available chilling amount has increased by 22.5 % over the last 90 years, indicating that in the investigated geographical region there is no threat of chilling shortage. The projection of climatic parameters for Central Lithuania on the basis of three global circulation models has shown that under the optimistic climate change scenario (RCP 2.6) the mean temperature tends to increase by 1.28 °C and under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) by 5.03 °C until the end of the current century. Recently, different statistical models are used not only to analyze but also to project the changes in spring phenology. Our study has shown that when the data of long-term phenological observations are available, multiple regression models are suitable for the projection of the advancement of leaf unfolding under the changing climate. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projected advancement in leaf unfolding for early-season species birch consists of almost 15 days as an average of all three used GSMs. Markedly less response to the projected far future (2071-2100), climate change is foreseen for other investigated climax species: -9 days for lime, 10 days for oak, and 11 days for maple.

Application of physical scaling towards downscaling climate model precipitation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaur, Abhishek; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

2018-04-01

Physical scaling (SP) method downscales climate model data to local or regional scales taking into consideration physical characteristics of the area under analysis. In this study, multiple SP method based models are tested for their effectiveness towards downscaling North American regional reanalysis (NARR) daily precipitation data. Model performance is compared with two state-of-the-art downscaling methods: statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and generalized linear modeling (GLM). The downscaled precipitation is evaluated with reference to recorded precipitation at 57 gauging stations located within the study region. The spatial and temporal robustness of the downscaling methods is evaluated using seven precipitation based indices. Results indicate that SP method-based models perform best in downscaling precipitation followed by GLM, followed by the SDSM model. Best performing models are thereafter used to downscale future precipitations made by three global circulation models (GCMs) following two emission scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 over the twenty-first century. The downscaled future precipitation projections indicate an increase in mean and maximum precipitation intensity as well as a decrease in the total number of dry days. Further an increase in the frequency of short (1-day), moderately long (2-4 day), and long (more than 5-day) precipitation events is projected.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat waves over China in regional climate simulations within the CORDEX-EA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pinya; Tang, Jianping; Sun, Xuguang; Liu, Jianyong; Juan, Fang

2018-03-01

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in 20-year regional climate simulations over East Asia, and investigates the capability of WRF to reproduce observational heat waves in China. Within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the WRF model is driven by the ERA-Interim (ERAIN) reanalysis, and five continuous simulations are conducted from 1989 to 2008. Of these, four runs apply the interior spectral nudging (SN) technique with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validations show that WRF can reasonably reproduce the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in China. Compared with the experiment without SN, the application of SN is effectie on improving the skill of the model in simulating both the spatial distributions and temporal variations of heat waves of different intensities. The WRF model shows advantages in reproducing the synoptic circulations with SN and therefore yields better representations for heat wave events. Besides, the SN method is able to preserve the variability of large-scale circulations quite well, which in turn adjusts the extreme temperature variability towards the observation. Among the four SN experiments, those with stronger nudging coefficients perform better in modulating both the spatial and temporal features of heat waves. In contrast, smaller nudging coefficients weaken the effects of SN on improving WRF's performances.

Superhot fluids circulating close to magma intrusions: a contribution from analogue modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, Domenico; Agostini, Andrea; Bonini, Marco; Corti, Giacomo

2017-04-01

Magma overpressure at the time of the emplacement at shallow crustal levels may lead to deformation (i.e. forced folding, fracturing and faulting) in the country rock, both at local and regional scale. To get insights into this process, we reproduced and analysed in the laboratory the fracture/fault network associated with the emplacement of magma at shallow crustal levels. We used a mixture of quartz sand and K-feldspar fine sand as an analogue for the brittle crust, and polyglycerols for the magma. The models were able to reproduce complex 3D architectures of deformation resulting from magma emplacement, with different deformation patterns -invariably dominated by forced folding and associated brittle faulting/fracturing- resulting from variable parameters. These results provide useful hints into geothermal researches. Fractures and faults associated with magma emplacement are indeed expected to significantly influence the distribution and migration of superhot geothermal fluids near the edge of the magma intrusion. These structures can therefore be considered as potential targets for geothermal or mineral deposits exploration. In this perspective, the results of analogue models may provide useful geometric and conceptual constraints for field work, numerical modeling, and particularly seismic interpretation for achieving a better understanding and tuning of the integrated conceptual model concerning the circulation of supercritical fluids. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement No. 608553 (Project IMAGE).

Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeWeaver, Eric T.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Tremblay, L.-Bruno

This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include • An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; • A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; • A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; • Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; • A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

Seasonal variability of water transport through the Straits of Gibraltar, Sicily and Corsica, derived from a high-resolution model of the Mediterranean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Béranger, K.; Mortier, L.; Crépon, M.

2005-08-01

The variability of the water transport through three major straits of the Mediterranean Sea (Gibraltar, Sicily and Corsica) was investigated using a high-resolution model. This model of the Mediterranean circulation was developed in the context of the Mercator project. The region of interest is the western Mediterranean between the Strait of Gibraltar and the Strait of Sicily. The major water masses and the winter convection in the Gulf of Lions were simulated. The model reproduced the meso-scale and large-scale patterns of the circulation in very good agreement with recent observations. The western and the eastern gyres of the Alboran Sea were observed but high interannual variability was noticed. The Algerian Current splits into several branches at the longitude of the Strait of Sicily level, forming the Tyrrhenian branch, and, the Atlantic Ionian Stream and the Atlantic Tunisian Current in the eastern Mediterranean. The North Current retroflexed north of the Balearic Islands and a dome structure was observed in the Gulf of Lions. The cyclonic barotropic Algerian gyre, which was recently observed during the MATER and ELISA experiment, was evidenced in the simulation. From time-series of 10-day mean transport, the three straits presented a high variability at short time-scales. The transport was generally maximum, in April for the Strait of Gibraltar, in November for the Strait of Sicily, and in January for the Strait of Corsica. The amplitudes of the transport through the Straits of Gibraltar (0.11 Sv) and Sicily (0.30 Sv) presented a weaker seasonal variability than that of the Strait of Corsica (0.70 Sv). The study of the relation between transport and wind forcing showed that the transport through the Strait of Gibraltar is dependent on local zonal wind over short time-scales (70%), which was not the case for the other straits (less than 30%). The maximum (minimum) of the transport occurred for an eastward (westward) wind stress in the strait. An interannual event was noticed in November-December 2001, which corresponded to a very low transport (0.3 Sv), which was characterised by a cyclonic circulation in the western Alboran Sea. That circulation was also reproduced by the model for other periods than winter during the interannual simulation. The transport through the Strait of Sicily is not influenced by local wind. The wind stress curl of the northwestern Mediterranean influenced the transport through the Strait of Corsica.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baptista, António M.

This work focuses on the numerical modeling of Columbia River estuarine circulation and associated modeling-supported analyses conducted as an integral part of a multi-disciplinary and multi-institutional effort led by NOAA's Northwest Fisheries Science Center. The overall effort is aimed at: (1) retrospective analyses to reconstruct historic bathymetric features and assess effects of climate and river flow on the extent and distribution of shallow water, wetland and tidal-floodplain habitats; (2) computer simulations using a 3-dimensional numerical model to evaluate the sensitivity of salmon rearing opportunities to various historical modifications affecting the estuary (including channel changes, flow regulation, and diking of tidalmore » wetlands and floodplains); (3) observational studies of present and historic food web sources supporting selected life histories of juvenile salmon as determined by stable isotope, microchemistry, and parasitology techniques; and (4) experimental studies in Grays River in collaboration with Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST) and the Columbia Land Trust (CLT) to assess effects of multiple tidal wetland restoration projects on various life histories of juvenile salmon and to compare responses to observed habitat-use patterns in the mainstem estuary. From the above observations, experiments, and additional modeling simulations, the effort will also (5) examine effects of alternative flow-management and habitat-restoration scenarios on habitat opportunity and the estuary's productive capacity for juvenile salmon. The underlying modeling system is part of the SATURN1coastal-margin observatory [1]. SATURN relies on 3D numerical models [2, 3] to systematically simulate and understand baroclinic circulation in the Columbia River estuary-plume-shelf system [4-7] (Fig. 1). Multi-year simulation databases of circulation are produced as an integral part of SATURN, and have multiple applications in understanding estuary/plume variability, the role of the estuary and plume on salmon survival, and functional changes in the estuary-plume system in response to climate and human activities.« less

Observational and numerical studies of extreme frontal scale contraction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, Steven E.

1995-01-01

The general objective of this effort is to increase understanding of how frontal scale contraction processes may create and sustain intense mesoscale precipitation along intensifying cold fronts. The five-part project (an expansion of the originally proposed two-part project) employed conventional meteorological data, special mesoscale data, remote sensing measurements, and various numerical models. First an idealized hydrostatic modeling study of the scale contraction effects of differential cloud cover on low-level frontal structure and dynamics was completed and published in a peer-reviewed journal. The second objective was to complete and publish the results from a three dimensional numerical model simulation of a cold front in which differential sensible heating related to cloud coverage patterns was apparently crucial in the formation of a severe frontal squall line. The third objective was to use a nonhydrostatic model to examine the nonlinear interactions between the transverse circulation arising from inhomogeneous cloud cover, the adiabatic frontal circulation related to semi-geostrophic forcing, and diabatic effects related to precipitation processes, in the development of a density current-like microstructure at the leading edge of cold fronts. Although the development of a frontal model that could be used to initialize such a primitive equation model was begun, we decided to focus our efforts instead on a project that could be successfully completed in this short time, due to the lack of prospects for continued NASA funding beyond this first year (our proposal was not accepted for future funding). Thus, a fourth task was added, which was to use the nonhydrostatic model to test tentative hypotheses developed from the most detailed observations ever obtained on a density current (primarily sodar and wind profiler data). These simulations were successfully completed, the findings were reported at a scientific conference, and the results have recently been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. The fifth objective was to complete the analysis of data collected during the Cooperative Oklahoma Profiler Studies (COPS-91) field project, which was supported by NASA. The analysis of the mesoscale surface and sounding data, Doppler radar imagery, and other remote sensing data from multi frequency wind profiler, microwave radiometer, and the Radio Acoustic Sounding System has been completed. This study is a unique investigation of processes that caused the contraction of a cold front to a microscale zone exhibiting an undular bore-like structure. Results were reported at a scientific conference and are being prepared for publication. In summary, considerable progress has been achieved under NASA funding in furthering our understanding of frontal scale contraction and density current - gravity wave interaction processes, and in utilizing models and remotely sensed data in such studies.

Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment.

PubMed

Chapra, Steven C; Boehlert, Brent; Fant, Charles; Bierman, Victor J; Henderson, Jim; Mills, David; Mas, Diane M L; Rennels, Lisa; Jantarasami, Lesley; Martinich, Jeremy; Strzepek, Kenneth M; Paerl, Hans W

2017-08-15

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) have serious adverse effects on human and environmental health. Herein, we developed a modeling framework that predicts the effect of climate change on cyanobacteria concentrations in large reservoirs in the contiguous U.S. The framework, which uses climate change projections from five global circulation models, two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and two cyanobacterial growth scenarios, is unique in coupling climate projections with a hydrologic/water quality network model of the contiguous United States. Thus, it generates both regional and nationwide projections useful as a screening-level assessment of climate impacts on CyanoHAB prevalence as well as potential lost recreation days and associated economic value. Our projections indicate that CyanoHAB concentrations are likely to increase primarily due to water temperature increases tempered by increased nutrient levels resulting from changing demographics and climatic impacts on hydrology that drive nutrient transport. The combination of these factors results in the mean number of days of CyanoHAB occurrence ranging from about 7 days per year per waterbody under current conditions, to 16-23 days in 2050 and 18-39 days in 2090. From a regional perspective, we find the largest increases in CyanoHAB occurrence in the Northeast U.S., while the greatest impacts to recreation, in terms of costs, are in the Southeast.