Dynamic and static equilibrium sea level effects of Greenland Ice Sheet melt: An assessment of partially-coupled idealized water hosing experiments (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Griffies, S. M.; Yin, J.; Hay, C. C.; Stouffer, R. J.

2010-12-01

Regional sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution. Both effects will contribute to future sea level change, but because they are studied by two different subdisciplines -- climate modeling and glacial rebound modeling -- projections that attempt to combine both have to date been scarce. To compare their magnitude, we simulated the effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt by conducting idealized North Atlantic "water-hosing" experiments in a climate model unidirectionally coupled to a SE sea level model. At current rates of GIS melt, freshwater hosing experiments in fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) do not yield clear DSL trends but do generate DSL variability; comparing that variability to expected static equilibrium "fingerprints" suggests that at least about 40 years of observations are needed to detect the "fingerprints" of ice sheet melt at current Greenland melt rates of about 0.3 mm equivalent sea level (esl)/year. Accelerated melt rates of about 2--6 mm esl/y, as may occur later in the century, should be detectable above background DSL variability within less than a decade of their onset. At these higher melt rates, AOGCMs do yield clear DSL trends. In the GFDL CM 2.1 model, DSL trends are strongest in the western North Atlantic, while SE effects come to dominate in most of the ocean when melt exceeds about 20 cm esl.

A climate-based multivariate extreme emulator of met-ocean-hydrological events for coastal flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, Paula; Rueda, Ana; Mendez, Fernando J.; Tomas, Antonio; Del Jesus, Manuel; Losada, Iñigo J.

2015-04-01

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are useful to analyze large-scale climate variability (long-term historical periods, future climate projections). However, applications such as coastal flood modeling require climate information at finer scale. Besides, flooding events depend on multiple climate conditions: waves, surge levels from the open-ocean and river discharge caused by precipitation. Therefore, a multivariate statistical downscaling approach is adopted to reproduce relationships between variables and due to its low computational cost. The proposed method can be considered as a hybrid approach which combines a probabilistic weather type downscaling model with a stochastic weather generator component. Predictand distributions are reproduced modeling the relationship with AOGCM predictors based on a physical division in weather types (Camus et al., 2012). The multivariate dependence structure of the predictand (extreme events) is introduced linking the independent marginal distributions of the variables by a probabilistic copula regression (Ben Ayala et al., 2014). This hybrid approach is applied for the downscaling of AOGCM data to daily precipitation and maximum significant wave height and storm-surge in different locations along the Spanish coast. Reanalysis data is used to assess the proposed method. A commonly predictor for the three variables involved is classified using a regression-guided clustering algorithm. The most appropriate statistical model (general extreme value distribution, pareto distribution) for daily conditions is fitted. Stochastic simulation of the present climate is performed obtaining the set of hydraulic boundary conditions needed for high resolution coastal flood modeling. References: Camus, P., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Izaguirre, C., Espejo, A., Cánovas, V., Pérez, J., Rueda, A., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2014b). A weather-type statistical downscaling framework for ocean wave climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi: 10.1002/2014JC010141. Ben Ayala, M.A., Chebana, F., Ouarda, T.B.M.J. (2014). Probabilistic Gaussian Copula Regression Model for Multisite and Multivariable Downscaling, Journal of Climate, 27, 3331-3347.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Modelling large-scale ice-sheet-climate interactions at the last glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Browne, O. J. H.; Gregory, J. M.; Payne, A. J.; Ridley, J. K.; Rutt, I. C.

2010-05-01

In order to investigate the interactions between coevolving climate and ice-sheets on multimillenial timescales, a low-resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) has been coupled to a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model. We use the FAMOUS AOGCM, which is almost identical in formulation to the widely used HadCM3 AOGCM, but on account of its lower resolution (7.5° longitude × 5° latitude in the atmosphere, 3.75°× 2.5° in the ocean) it runs about ten times faster. We use the community ice-sheet model Glimmer at 20 km resolution, with the shallow ice approximation and an annual degree-day scheme for surface mass balance. With the FAMOUS-Glimmer coupled model, we have simulated the growth of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets at the last glacial inception, under constant orbital forcing and atmospheric composition for 116 ka BP. Ice grows in both regions, totalling 5.8 m of sea-level equivalent in 10 ka, slower than proxy records suggest. Positive climate feedbacks reinforce this growth at local scales (order hundreds of kilometres), where changes are an order of magnitude larger than on the global average. The albedo feedback (higher local albedo means a cooler climate) is important in the initial expansion of the ice-sheet area. The topography feedback (higher surface means a cooler climate) affects ice-sheet thickness and is not noticeable for the first 1 ka. These two feedbacks reinforce each other. Without them, the ice volume is ~90% less after 10 ka. In Laurentia, ice expands initially on the Canadian Arctic islands. The glaciation of the islands eventually cools the nearby mainland climate sufficiently to produce a positive mass balance there. Adjacent to the ice-sheets, cloud feedbacks tend to reduce the surface mass balance and restrain ice growth; this is an example of a local feedback whose simulation requires a model that includes detailed atmospheric physics.

Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

PubMed

Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

2002-07-15

Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerley, Duncan; Reeves, Jessica; Barr, Cameron; Bostock, Helen; Fitzsimmons, Kathryn; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Gouramanis, Chris; McGregor, Helen; Mooney, Scott; Phipps, Steven J.; Tibby, John; Tyler, Jonathan

2017-11-01

This study uses the simplified patterns of temperature and effective precipitation approach from the Australian component of the international palaeoclimate synthesis effort (INTegration of Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records - OZ-INTIMATE) to compare atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations and proxy reconstructions. The approach is used in order to identify important properties (e.g. circulation and precipitation) of past climatic states from the models and proxies, which is a primary objective of the Southern Hemisphere Assessment of PalaeoEnvironment (SHAPE) initiative. The AOGCM data are taken from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) mid-Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present, 6 ka) and pre-industrial control (ca. 1750 CE, 0 ka) experiments. The synthesis presented here shows that the models and proxies agree on the differences in climate state for 6 ka relative to 0 ka, when they are insolation driven. The largest uncertainty between the models and the proxies occurs over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). The analysis shows that the lower temperatures in the Pacific at around 6 ka in the models may be the result of an enhancement of an existing systematic error. It is therefore difficult to decipher which one of the proxies and/or the models is correct. This study also shows that a reduction in the Equator-to-pole temperature difference in the Southern Hemisphere causes the mid-latitude westerly wind strength to reduce in the models; however, the simulated rainfall actually increases over the southern temperate zone of Australia as a result of higher convective precipitation. Such a mechanism (increased convection) may be useful for resolving disparities between different regional proxy records and model simulations. Finally, after assessing the available datasets (model and proxy), opportunities for better model-proxy integrated research are discussed.

Climate Change, Habitat Loss, Protected Areas and the Climate Adaptation Potential of Species in Mediterranean Ecosystems Worldwide

PubMed Central

Klausmeyer, Kirk R.; Shaw, M. Rebecca

2009-01-01

Mediterranean climate is found on five continents and supports five global biodiversity hotspots. Based on combined downscaled results from 23 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for three emissions scenarios, we determined the projected spatial shifts in the mediterranean climate extent (MCE) over the next century. Although most AOGCMs project a moderate expansion in the global MCE, regional impacts are large and uneven. The median AOGCM simulation output for the three emissions scenarios project the MCE at the end of the 21st century in Chile will range from 129–153% of its current size, while in Australia, it will contract to only 77–49% of its current size losing an area equivalent to over twice the size of Portugal. Only 4% of the land area within the current MCE worldwide is in protected status (compared to a global average of 12% for all biome types), and, depending on the emissions scenario, only 50–60% of these protected areas are likely to be in the future MCE. To exacerbate the climate impact, nearly one third (29–31%) of the land where the MCE is projected to remain stable has already been converted to human use, limiting the size of the potential climate refuges and diminishing the adaptation potential of native biota. High conversion and low protection in projected stable areas make Australia the highest priority region for investment in climate-adaptation strategies to reduce the threat of climate change to the rich biodiversity of the mediterranean biome. PMID:19641600

Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeed, F.; Athar, H.

2017-11-01

A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse and climatically vulnerable region of Pakistan (20°-37° N and 60°-78° E), for the first time, for the baseline period (1975-1999), as well as for the three projected periods during the twenty-first century centered at 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively, both on seasonal and on annual bases, under three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, and B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting of the IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that during the winter season (from December to March), 66% of the models display robust projected increase of winter precipitation by about 10% relative to the baseline period, irrespective of emission scenario and projection period, in the upper northern subregion of Pakistan (latitude > 35° N). The projected robust changes in the temperature by the end of twenty-first century are in the range of 3 to 4 ° C during the winter season and on an annual basis, in the central and western regions of Punjab province, especially in A2 and A1B emission scenarios. In particular, the IPCC AR4 models project a progressive increase in temperature throughout Pakistan, in contrast to spatial distribution of precipitation, where spatially less uniform and robust results for projected periods are obtained on sign of change. In general, changes in both precipitation and temperature are larger in the summer season (JAS) as compared to the winter season in the coming decades, relative to the baseline period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan, in comparison to what is currently envisaged.

Evaluation of surface water budget and assessment the global water cycle for the IPCC AR4 A1B scenario simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, H.; Park, E.; Kwon, W.

2009-12-01

Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies, because humans require water for their survival. Especially, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species. The goal of this study is to assess the closure and annual variations of the water cycles based on the multi-model ensemble approach. In this study, the projection results of the previous works focusing on global and six sub-regions are updated using sixteen atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Before projecting future climate, model performances are evaluated on the simulation of the present-day climate. From the result, we construct and use mainly multi-model ensembles (MMEs), which is referred to as MME9, defined from nine selected AOGCMs of higher performance. Analyzed variables include annual and seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. The overall projection results from MME9 show that most regions will experience warmer and wetter climate at the end of 21st century. The evaporation shows a very similar trend to precipitation, but not in the runoff projection. The internal and inter-model variabilities are larger in the runoff than both precipitation and evaporation. Moreover, the runoff is notably reduced in Europe at the end of 21st century.

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Villarini, Gabriele

2015-12-01

Future coastal flood risk will be strongly influenced by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. These two factors are generally considered independently. Here, we assess twenty-first century changes in the coastal hazard for the US East Coast using a flood index (FI) that accounts for changes in flood duration and magnitude driven by SLR and changes in power dissipation index (PDI, an integrated measure of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration). Sea-level rise and PDI are derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations of 15 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). By 2080-2099, projected changes in the FI relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range 4-75 times higher for RCP 2.6 and 35-350 times higher for RCP 8.5. High-end FI projections are driven by three AOGCMs that project the largest increases in SLR, PDI and upper ocean temperatures. Changes in PDI are particularly influential if their intra-model correlation with SLR is included, increasing the RCP 8.5 90th percentile FI by a further 25%. Sea-level rise from other, possibly correlated, climate processes (for example, ice sheet and glacier mass changes) will further increase coastal flood risk and should be accounted for in comprehensive assessments.

Joint Projections of US East Coast Sea Level and Storm Surge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Villarini, Gabriele

2015-01-01

Future coastal flood risk will be strongly influenced by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. These two factors are generally considered independently. Here, we assess twenty-first century changes in the coastal hazard for the US East Coast using a flood index (FI) that accounts for changes in flood duration and magnitude driven by SLR and changes in power dissipation index (PDI, an integrated measure of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration). Sea-level rise and PDI are derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations of 15 atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). By 2080-2099, projected changes in the FI relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range 4-75 times higher for RCP 2.6 and 35-350 times higher for RCP 8.5. High-end Fl projections are driven by three AOGCMs that project the largest increases in SLR, PDI and upper ocean temperatures. Changes in PDI are particularly influential if their intra-model correlation with SLR is included, increasing the RCP 8.5 90th percentile FI by a further 25%. Sea-level rise from other, possibly correlated, climate processes (for example, ice sheet and glacier mass changes) will further increase coastal flood risk and should be accounted for in comprehensive assessments.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, Andrew J.; Sedláček, Jan; Eby, Michael; Alexander, Kaitlin; Crespin, Elisabeth; Fichefet, Thierry; Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle; Joos, Fortunat; Kawamiya, Michio; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Steinacher, Marco; Tachiiri, Kaoru; Tokos, Kathy; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2012-10-01

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%-25% 5%-95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%-30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%-35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%-44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°-32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

Northern African and Indian Precipitation at the end of the 21st Century: An Integrated Application of Regional and Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patricola, C. M.; Cook, K. H.

2008-12-01

As greenhouse warming continues there is growing concern about the future climate of both Africa, which is highlighted by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) as exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, and India. Precipitation projections from the AOGCMs of the IPCC AR4 are relatively consistent over India, but not over northern Africa. Inconsistencies can be related to the model's inability to capture climate process correctly, deficiencies in physical parameterizations, different SST projections, or horizontal atmospheric resolution that is too coarse to realistically represent the tight gradients over West Africa and complex topography of East Africa and India. Treatment of the land surface in a model may also be an issue over West Africa and India where land-surface/atmosphere interactions are very important. Here a method for simulating future climate is developed and applied using a high-resolution regional model in conjunction with output from a suite of AOGCMs, drawing on the advantages of both the regional and global modeling approaches. Integration by the regional model allows for finer horizontal resolution and regionally appropriate selection of parameterizations and land-surface model. AOGCM output is used to provide SST projections and lateral boundary conditions to constrain the regional model. The control simulation corresponds to 1981-2000, and eight future simulations representing 2081-2100 are conducted, each constrained by a different AOGCM and forced by CO2 concentrations from the SRES A2 emissions scenario. After model spin-up, May through October remain for investigation. Analysis is focused on climate change parameters important for impacts on agriculture and water resource management, and is presented in a format compatible with the IPCC reports. Precipitation projections simulated by the regional model are quite consistent, with 75% or more ensemble members agreeing on the sign of the anomaly over vast regions of Africa and India. Over West Africa, where the regional model provides the greatest improvement over the AOGCMs in consistency of ensemble members, precipitation at the end of the century is generally projected to increase during May and decrease in June and July. Wetter conditions are simulated during August though October, with the exception of drying close to the Guinean Coast in August. In late summer, high rainfall rates are simulated more frequently in the future, indicating the possibility for increases in flooding events. The regional model's projections over India are in stark contrast to the AOGCM's, producing intense and generally widespread drying in August and September. The very promising method developed here is young and further potential developments are recognized, including the addition of ocean, vegetation, and dust models. Ensembles which employ other regional models, sets of parameterizations, and emissions scenarios should also be explored.

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinshausen, M.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, S. C. B.

2011-02-01

Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M. K.; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J.; Shanley, James B.

2017-01-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change.

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J; Shanley, James B

2017-02-01

A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stochastic Ocean Eddy Perturbations in a Coupled General Circulation Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howe, N.; Williams, P. D.; Gregory, J. M.; Smith, R. S.

2014-12-01

High-resolution ocean models, which are eddy permitting and resolving, require large computing resources to produce centuries worth of data. Also, some previous studies have suggested that increasing resolution does not necessarily solve the problem of unresolved scales, because it simply introduces a new set of unresolved scales. Applying stochastic parameterisations to ocean models is one solution that is expected to improve the representation of small-scale (eddy) effects without increasing run-time. Stochastic parameterisation has been shown to have an impact in atmosphere-only models and idealised ocean models, but has not previously been studied in ocean general circulation models. Here we apply simple stochastic perturbations to the ocean temperature and salinity tendencies in the low-resolution coupled climate model, FAMOUS. The stochastic perturbations are implemented according to T(t) = T(t-1) + (ΔT(t) + ξ(t)), where T is temperature or salinity, ΔT is the corresponding deterministic increment in one time step, and ξ(t) is Gaussian noise. We use high-resolution HiGEM data coarse-grained to the FAMOUS grid to provide information about the magnitude and spatio-temporal correlation structure of the noise to be added to the lower resolution model. Here we present results of adding white and red noise, showing the impacts of an additive stochastic perturbation on mean climate state and variability in an AOGCM.

Time variation of effective climate sensitivity in GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, K. D.; Ingram, W. J.; Gregory, J. M.

2009-04-01

Effective climate sensitivity is often assumed to be constant (if uncertain), but some previous studies of General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have found it varying as the simulation progresses. This complicates the fitting of simple models to such simulations, as well as having implications for the estimation of climate sensitivity from observations. This study examines the evolution of the feedbacks determining the climate sensitivity in GCMs submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Apparent centennial-timescale variations of effective climate sensitivity during stabilisation to a forcing can be considered an artefact of using conventional forcings which only allow for instantaneous effects and stratospheric adjustment. If the forcing is adjusted for processes occurring on timescales which are short compared to the climate stabilisation timescale then there is little centennial timescale evolution of effective climate sensitivity in any of the GCMs. We suggest that much of the apparent variation in effective climate sensitivity identified in previous studies is actually due to the comparatively fast forcing adjustment. Persistent differences are found in the strength of the feedbacks between the coupled atmosphere - ocean (AO) versions and their atmosphere - mixed-layer ocean (AML) counterparts, (the latter are often assumed to give the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the AOGCM). The AML model can typically only estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the parallel AO version to within about 0.5K. The adjustment to the forcing to account for comparatively fast processes varies in magnitude and sign between GCMs, as well as differing between AO and AML versions of the same model. There is evidence from one AOGCM that the forcing adjustment may take a couple of decades, with implications for observationally based estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. We suggest that at least some of the spread in 21st century global temperature predictions between GCMs is due to differing adjustment processes, hence work to understand these differences should be a priority.

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

DOE PAGES

Winterhalter, Wade E.

2011-09-01

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I foundmore » that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.« less

The effects of climate downscaling technique and observational data set on modeled ecological responses.

PubMed

Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K

2016-07-01

Assessments of future climate change impacts on ecosystems typically rely on multiple climate model projections, but often utilize only one downscaling approach trained on one set of observations. Here, we explore the extent to which modeled biogeochemical responses to changing climate are affected by the selection of the climate downscaling method and training observations used at the montane landscape of the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. We evaluated three downscaling methods: the delta method (or the change factor method), monthly quantile mapping (Bias Correction-Spatial Disaggregation, or BCSD), and daily quantile regression (Asynchronous Regional Regression Model, or ARRM). Additionally, we trained outputs from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) (CCSM3, HadCM3, PCM, and GFDL-CM2.1) driven by higher (A1fi) and lower (B1) future emissions scenarios on two sets of observations (1/8º resolution grid vs. individual weather station) to generate the high-resolution climate input for the forest biogeochemical model PnET-BGC (eight ensembles of six runs).The choice of downscaling approach and spatial resolution of the observations used to train the downscaling model impacted modeled soil moisture and streamflow, which in turn affected forest growth, net N mineralization, net soil nitrification, and stream chemistry. All three downscaling methods were highly sensitive to the observations used, resulting in projections that were significantly different between station-based and grid-based observations. The choice of downscaling method also slightly affected the results, however not as much as the choice of observations. Using spatially smoothed gridded observations and/or methods that do not resolve sub-monthly shifts in the distribution of temperature and/or precipitation can produce biased results in model applications run at greater temporal and/or spatial resolutions. These results underscore the importance of carefully considering field observations used for training, as well as the downscaling method used to generate climate change projections, for smaller-scale modeling studies. Different sources of variability including selection of AOGCM, emissions scenario, downscaling technique, and data used for training downscaling models, result in a wide range of projected forest ecosystem responses to future climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Limiting global warming to 2°C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, K.; Meinshausen, M.; Golly, A.; Mengel, M.; Lebek, K.; Donner, S. D.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.

2013-02-01

Mass coral bleaching events have become a widespread phenomenon causing serious concerns with regard to the survival of corals. Triggered by high ocean temperatures, bleaching events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Here, we provide a comprehensive global study of coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change, based on an extended set of emissions scenarios and models. We show that preserving >10% of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting warming to below 1.5°C (atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) range: 1.3-1.8°C) relative to pre-industrial levels. Even under optimistic assumptions regarding corals' thermal adaptation, one-third (9-60%, 68% uncertainty range) of the world's coral reefs are projected to be subject to long-term degradation under the most optimistic new IPCC emissions scenario, RCP3-PD. Under RCP4.5 this fraction increases to two-thirds (30-88%, 68% uncertainty range). Possible effects of ocean acidification reducing thermal tolerance are assessed within a sensitivity experiment.

Long History of IAM Comparisons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2015-04-23

Correspondence to editor: We agree with the editors that the assumptions behind models of all types, including integrated assessment models (IAMs), should be as transparent as possible. The editors were in error, however, when they implied that the IAM community is just “now emulating the efforts of climate researchers by instigating their own model inter-comparison projects (MIPs).” In fact, model comparisons for integrated assessment and climate models followed a remarkably similar trajectory. Early General Circulation Model (GCM) comparison efforts, evolved to the first Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP), which was initiated in the early 1990s. Atmospheric models evolved to coupledmore » atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCMs) and results from the first Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP1) become available about a decade later. Results of first energy model comparison exercise, conducted under the auspices of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum, were published in 1977. A summary of the first comparison focused on climate change was published in 1993. As energy models were coupled to simple economic and climate models to form IAMs, the first comparison exercise for IAMs (EMF-14) was initiated in 1994, and IAM comparison exercises have been on-going since this time.« less

Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

2016-04-01

Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long-lasting rainfall variations over India on a centennial time-scale.

An AOGCM based assessment of interseasonal variability in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asmat, U.; Athar, H.; Nabeel, A.; Latif, M.

2018-01-01

The interseasonal variability of two basic climatic parameters (precipitation and temperature) is assessed, over vulnerable and data sparse region of Pakistan (23° to 37°N and 60° to 75°E), for two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) based Atmospheric-Oceanic General Circulation Model (AOGCM) versions: CM2.0 and CM2.1 by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and two CMIP5 based AOGCM versions: CM2p1 and CM3.0. A recent historical 50-year period (1951-2000) is analyzed and compared with APHRODITE for precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis based gridded datasets for temperature for the following four seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON. The study area is divided into three regions: all Pakistan, northern Pakistan, and southern Pakistan. The interseasonal variability of the precipitation and the temperature are derived from all three (five) runs of CM2.0 (CM2.1) and from all ten (five) runs of CM 2p1 (CM3.0). The bias, root mean square error (RMSE), one-sigma standard deviation (SD) and correlation coefficient (CC) are used as assessing metrics. The following individual runs have positive CC with respect to APHRODITE at ≤1% Confidence Level (CL). On seasonal basis for CMIP5 based GFDL models during DJF: CM2p1R5 (for all Pakistan), CM2p1R5 (for northern Pakistan), and during MAM: CM2p1R5 (for southern Pakistan; this run has the lowest centered RMSE of 0.11 mm/day), whereas on annual basis: CM3.0R3 (for all Pakistan). However, out of these four runs, only CM2p1 (for southern Pakistan) has SD < SDobs (0.08 < 0.12 mm/day). There are 13 other runs for which the positive CC is at ≤5% CL, both relative to observed precipitation or temperature. Out of these 13 runs, only the average of runs of GFDL-CM2.1 in CMIP3 in JJA in southern Pakistan has SD < SDobs (0.56 < 0.59 °C) with a centered RMSE value of 0.65 °C. These characteristics of GFDL-CM2p1 runs are supported by their relatively better simulation of spatial distribution of 1000-850 hPa averaged layer wind patterns, relative to NCEP/NCAR 1000-850 hPa averaged wind patterns, over Pakistan, in respective seasons. A variance based bias adjustment when applied displays considerable interseasonal bias reduction both in precipitation and temperature in long term mean with no change in trend.

A new method for probabilistic assessment of regional climate impacts in dependence of cumulative GHG emission budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, Nadine; Hare, Bill

2010-05-01

Given the expected and already observed impacts of climate change there is growing agreement that global mean temperature rise should be limited to below 2 or 1.5 degrees. The translation of such a temperature target into guidelines for global emission reduction over the coming decades has become one of the most important and urgent tasks. In fact, there are four recent studies (Meinshausen et al. 2009, Allen et al. 2009, Matthews et al. 2009 and Zickfeld et al. 2009) which take a very comprehensive approach to quantifying the current uncertainties related to the question of what are the "allowed amounts" of global emissions given specific limits of global warming. Here, we present an extension of this budget approach allowing to focus on specific regional impacts. The method is based on probabilistic projections of regional temperature and precipitation changes providing the input for available impact functions. Using the example of Greenland's surface mass balance (Gregory et al., 2006) we will demonstrate how the probability of specific impacts can be described in dependence of global GHG emission budgets taking into account the uncertainty of global mean temperature projections as well as uncertainties of regional climate patterns varying from AOGCM to AOGCM. The method utilizes the AOGCM based linear relation between global mean temperature changes and regionally averaged changes in temperature and precipitation. It allows to handle the variations of regional climate projections from AR4 AOGCM runs independent of the uncertainties of global mean temperature change that are estimated by a simple climate model (Meinshausen et al., 2009). While the linearity of this link function is already established for temperature and to a lesser degree (depending on the region) also for precipitation (Santer et al. 1990; Mitchell et al. 1999; Giorgi et al., 2008; Solomon et al., 2009), we especially focus on the quantification of the uncertainty (in particularly the inter-AOGCM variations) of the associated scaling coefficients. Our approach is based on a linear mixed effects model (e.g. Bates and Pinheiro, 2001). In comparison to other scaling approaches we do not fit separate models for the temperature and precipitation data but we apply a two-dimensional model, i.e., we explicitly account for the fact that models (scenarios or runs) showing an especially high temperature increase may also show high precipitation increases or vice versa. Coupling the two-dimensional distribution of the scaling coefficients with the uncertainty distributions of global mean temperature change given different GHG emission trajectories finally provides time series of two dimensional uncertainty distributions of regional changes in temperature and precipitation, where both components might be correlated. These samples provide the input for regional specific impact functions. In case of Greenland we use a function by Gregory et al., 2006 that allows us to calculate changes in sea level rise due to changes in Greenland's surface mass balance in dependence of regionally averaged changes in temperature and precipitation. The precipitation signal turns out to be relatively strong for Greenland with AOGCMs consistently showing increasing precipitation with increasing global mean temperature. In addition, temperature and precipitation increases turned out to be highly correlated for Greenland: Models showing an especially high temperature increase also show high precipitation increases reflected by a correlation coefficient of 0.88 for the inter-model variations of both components of the scaling coefficients. Taking these correlations into account is especially important because the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet critically depends on the interaction of the temperature and precipitation component of climate change: Increasing precipitation may at least partly balance the loss due to increasing temperatures.

A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2012-11-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Oka, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-08-01

Recent studies have indicated that the uncertainty in the global carbon cycle may have a significant impact on the climate. Since state of the art models are too computationally expensive for it to be possible to explore their parametric uncertainty in anything approaching a comprehensive fashion, we have developed a simplified system for investigating this problem. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs), which contain detailed and complex processes, and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), which are quick and capable of large ensembles, we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM) which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model, using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC, which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model, by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite) which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean (COCO) including an ocean carbon cycle (an NPZD-type marine ecosystem model); a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE); and a database of daily temperature, precipitation, and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite, with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which, in this case, is a 1% pa increasing CO2 concentration scenario. By adjusting the effective climate sensitivity (equivalent to the equilibrium climate sensitivity for an energy balance model) of MIROC-lite, the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.0 K) version of MIROC3.2. By tuning of the physical and biogeochemical parameters it was possible to reasonably reproduce the bulk physical and biogeochemical properties of previously published CO2 stabilisation scenarios for that model. As an example of an application of the LCM, the behavior of the high sensitivity version of MIROC3.2 (with a 6.3 K equilibrium climate sensitivity) is also demonstrated. Given the highly adjustable nature of the model, we believe that the LCM should be a very useful tool for studying uncertainty in global climate change, and we have named the model, JUMP-LCM, after the name of our research group (Japan Uncertainty Modelling Project).

How does the sensitivity of climate affect stratospheric solar radiation management?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, K.; Rowlands, D. J.; Ingram, W.; Keith, D.; Morgan, M. G.

2011-12-01

If implementation of proposals to engineer the climate through solar radiation management (SRM) ever occurs, it is likely to be contingent upon climate sensitivity. Despite this, no modeling studies have examined how the effectiveness of SRM forcings differs between the typical Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) with climate sensitivities close to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) mean and ones with high climate sensitivities. Here, we use a perturbed physics ensemble modeling experiment to examine variations in the response of climate to SRM under different climate sensitivities. When SRM is used as a substitute for mitigation its ability to maintain the current climate state gets worse with increased climate sensitivity and with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. However, our results also demonstrate that the potential of SRM to slow climate change, even at the regional level, grows with climate sensitivity. On average, SRM reduces regional rates of temperature change by more than 90 percent and rates of precipitation change by more than 50 percent in these higher sensitivity model configurations. To investigate how SRM might behave in models with high climate sensitivity that are also consistent with recent observed climate change we perform a "perturbed physics" ensemble (PPE) modelling experiment with the climateprediction.net (cpdn) version of the HadCM3L AOGCM. Like other perturbed physics climate modelling experiments, we simulate past and future climate scenarios using a wide range of model parameter combinations that both reproduce past climate within a specified level of accuracy and simulate future climates with a wide range of climate sensitivities. We chose 43 members ("model versions") from a subset of the 1,550 from the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climateprediction.net project that have data that allow restarts. We use our results to explore how much assessments of SRM that use best-estimate models, and so near-median climate sensitivity, may be ignoring important contingencies associated with implementing SRM in reality. A primary motivation for studying SRM via the injection of aerosols in the stratosphere is to evaluate its potential effectiveness as "insurance" in the case of higher-than-expected climate response to global warming. We find that this is precisely when SRM appears to be least effective in returning regional climates to their baseline states and reducing regional rates of precipitation change. On the other hand, given the very high regional temperature anomalies associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations in high sensitivity models, it is also where SRM is most effective in reducing rates of change relative to a no SRM alternative.

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Rienecker, Michael M.; Suarez, M.; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Zhao, Bin; Marshak, Jelena; Vernieres, Guillaume; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2012-01-01

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office?s GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). The hindcasts are initialized every December from 1959 to 2010 following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from the atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) generated using the GEOS-5 atmospheric model. The forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble mean is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but forced with observed CO2. The results show that initialization acts to increase the forecast skill of Northern Atlantic SST compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) index is predictable up to a 5-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the Northern Atlantic. While the skill measured by Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS) shows 50% improvement up to 10-year lead forecast over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, however, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre, due in part to the fact that the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region appears to be unrealistic. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017: June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard I.; Borovikov, Anna Y.; Hackert, Eric C.; Kovach, Robin M.; Marshak, Jelena; Molod, Andrea M.; Pawson, Steven; Suarez, Max J.; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Zhao, Bin

2017-01-01

The GMAO seasonal forecast is produced from coupled model integrations that are initialized every five days, with seven additional ensemble members generated by coupled model breeding and initialized on the date closest to the beginning of the month. The main components of the AOGCM are the GEOS-5 atmospheric model, the MOM4 ocean model, and CICE sea ice model. Forecast fields were re-gridded to the passive microwave grid for averaging.

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017 July Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard I.; Borovikov, Anna Y.; Hackert, Eric C.; Kovach, Robin M.; Marshak, Jelena; Molod, Andrea M.; Pawson, Steven; Suarez, Max J.; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Zhao, Bin

2017-01-01

The GMAO seasonal forecast is produced from coupled model integrations that are initialized every five days, with seven additional ensemble members generated by coupled model breeding and initialized on the date closest to the beginning of the month. The main components of the AOGCM are the GEOS-5 atmospheric model, the MOM4 ocean model, and CICE sea ice model. Forecast fields were re-gridded to the passive microwave grid for averaging.

Hierarchical stochastic modeling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Moran, Edward H.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Dey, Rima

2017-01-01

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, cli- mate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our down- scaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.

What Can Earth Paleoclimates Reveal About the Resiliency of Habitable States? An Example from the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohl, L.

2014-04-01

The Neoproterozoic "Snowball Earth" glaciations ( 750-635 Ma) have been a special focus for outer habitable zone investigations, owing in large part to a captivating and controversial hypothesis suggesting that Earth may have only narrowly escaped a runaway icehouse state on multiple occasions (a.k.a. "the hard snowball"; Hoffman and Schrag 2001). A review of climate simulations exploring snowball inception (Godderis et al. 2011) reveals that a broad range of models (EBMs, EMICs and AGCMs) tend to yield hard snowball solutions, whereas models with greater 3-D dynamic response capabilities (AOGCMs) typically do not, unless some of their climate feedback responses (e.g., wind-driven ocean circulation, cloud forcings) are disabled (Poulsen and Jacobs 2004). This finding raises the likelihood that models incorporating dynamic climate feedbacks are essential to understanding how much flexibility there may be in the definition of a planet's habitable zone boundaries for a given point in its history. In the first of a series of new Snowball Earth simulations, we use the NASA/GISS ModelE2 Global Climate Model - a 3-D coupled atmosphere/ocean model with dynamic sea ice response - to explore the impacts of wind-driven ocean circulation, clouds and deep ocean circulation on the sea ice front when solar luminosity and atmospheric carbon dioxide are reduced to Neoproterozoic levels (solar = 94%, CO2 = 40 ppmv). The simulation includes a realistic Neoproterozoic land mass distribution, which is concentrated at mid- to tropical latitudes. After 300 years, the sea ice front is established near 30 degrees latitude, and after 600 years it remains stable. As with earlier coupled model simulations we conclude that runaway glacial states would have been difficult to achieve during the Neoproterozoic, and would be more likely to have occurred during earlier times in Earth history when solar luminosity was less. Inclusion of dynamic climate feedback capabilities in habitable zone modeling studies is likely to result in an expansion of our view of what a "Goldilocks" state can entail. Future simulations with a modified version of the NASA/GISS GCM, ROCKE-3D, will take advantage of newly-added model capabilities that evaluate the influence of rotation rate, solar spectral variability, CO2 surface condensation and CO2 clouds on the outer edge of Earth's habitable zone.

Heat uptake in the Southern Ocean in a warmer, windier world: a process-based analysis using an AOGCM with an eddy-permitting ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhlbrodt, T.; Gregory, J. M.

2016-02-01

About 90% of the anthropogenic increase in heat stored in the climate system is found the oceans. Therefore it is relevant to understand the details of ocean heat uptake. Here we present a detailed, process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes in HiGEM1.2, an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) with an eddy-permitting ocean component of 1/3° resolution. Similarly to various other models, HiGEM1.2 shows that the global heat budget is dominated by a downward advection of heat compensated by upward isopycnal diffusion. This upward isopycnal diffusion of heat is located mostly in the Southern Ocean (Fig. 1a).We compare the responses to a 4xCO2 forcing and an enhancement of the windstress forcing in the Southern Ocean. In line with the CMIP5 models, HiGEM1.2 shows a band of strong OHU in the mid-latitude Southern Ocean in the 4xCO2 run, which is mostly advective. By contrast, in the high-latitude Southern Ocean regions it is the suppression of convection that leads to OHU (Fig. 1b). In the enhanced windstress run, convection is strengthened at high Southern latitudes (Fig. 1c), leading to heat loss, while the magnitude of the OHU in the Southern mid-latitudes is very similar to the 4xCO2 results. Remarkably, there is only very small global OHU in the enhanced windstress run. The wind stress forcing just leads to a redistribution of heat. We relate the ocean changes at high southern latitudes to the effect of climate change on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). It weakens in the 4xCO2 run and strengthens in the wind stress run. The weakening is due to a narrowing of the ACC, caused by an expansion of the Weddell Gyre, and a flattening of the isopycnals, which are explained by a combination of the wind stress forcing and increased precipitation. The presentation will also try to clarify the definitions of terms like "advective", "diffusive" and "eddy-induced" when used for observed and modelled (at various resolutions) ocean heat uptake processes. Fig. 1: Horizontally averaged temperature tendency diagnostics for the high-latitude Southern Ocean, for (a) the control run, (b) the 4xCO2 anomalies and (c) the windstress anomalies. Both axes are scaled according to a power law. "VM"- vertical mixing, which includes convection ("conv").

Effects of Drake Passage on the Ocean's Thermal and Mechanical Energy Budget in a Coupled AOGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von der Heydt, A. S.; Viebahn, J. P.

2016-12-01

During the Cenozoic Earth's climate has undergone a major long-term transition from `greenhouse' to `icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The gradual cooling may be seen as response to the overall slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2-concentration due to weathering processes in the Earth System, however, continental geometry has changed considerably over this period and the long-term gradual trend was interrupted, by several rapid transitions and periods where temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations seem to be decoupled. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary ( 34 Ma, E/O) and mid-Miocene climatic transition ( 13 Ma, MCT) reflect major phases of Antarctic ice sheet build-up and global climate cooling, while Northern Hemisphere ice sheets developed much later ( 2.7Ma). Thresholds in atmospheric CO2-concentration together with feedback mechanisms related to land ice formation are among the favoured mechanisms of these climatic transitions, while the long-proposed ocean circulation changes caused by opening of tectonic gateways seem to play a less direct role. The opening of the Southern Ocean gateways, however, has eventually led to the development of today's strongest ocean current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, playing a major role in the transport properties of the global ocean circulation. The overall state of the global ocean circulation, therefore, must precondition the climate system to dramatic events such as major ice sheet formation. Closing Drake Passage in ocean-only and coupled climate models under otherwise present-day boundary conditions has become a classic experiment, indicating that there exists a considerable uncertainty in the climate response of those models to a closed Drake Passage. Here we quantify the climate response to a closed Drake Passage in a state-of-the-art coupled climate model (CESM). We show that the ocean gateway mechanism is robust in the sense that the equatorward expansion of the Southern Ocean sub-polar gyres inevitably leads to widespread warming around Antarctica. Moreover, we provide a framework to characterise the ocean temperature response to a closed Drake Passage in terms of both the mechanical and thermal energy budget of the ocean.

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard I.; Keppenne, Christian L.; Marshak, Jelena; Pawson, Steven; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J.; Vernieres, Guillaume; Zhao, Bin

2015-01-01

The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2.

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.

2015-07-01

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.; Samset, B. H.

2015-02-01

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Climate Variability In The Euro-atlantic Sector As Simulated By Echam4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, I.; Corte-Real, J.; Ramos, A.; Conde, F.

The atmosphere is a fundamental component of the climate system and its influence in local and global climates results from its composition, structure and motion. The best available tools to simulate future climates are coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 (T42 L19)[1] being a very relevant exam- ple of such a model due to its elaborated parametrizations of physical processes. The purpose of this work is twofold : (1) to assess the ability of ECHAM4 in reproducing the reference climate of 1961-1990, over the Euro-Atlantic sector (29N-71N; 67W- 59E) in terms of mean sea level pressure, surface temperature and total precipitation; (2) to evaluate the expected changes of the same climate elements in a warmer world. To attain the first goal the ECHAMSs control run output is compared with observed data obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU data set)[2-5]; to achieve the second objective, the modelSs control run is compared with its transient run forced by greenhouse gases. In both cases, comparisons are made in terms of mean values, variability in space and time and extremes. References [1] E. Roeckner, K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Christoph, M. Claussen, L. Dümenil, M. Esch, M. Giorgetta, U. Schlese, and U. Schulzweida, 1996: The atmospheric gen- eral circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Report No. 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp. [2] M. Hulme, D. Conway, P.D. Jones, T. Jiang, E.M. Barrow, and C. Turney (1995), Construction of a 1961-90 European climatology for climate change impacts and mod- elling applications, Int. J. Climatol., 15, 1333-1363. [3] M. Hulme (1994), The cost of climate data U a European experience, Weather, 49, 168-175. [4] M. Hulme, and M.G. New (1997), Dependence of large-scale precipitation clima- tologies on temporal and spatial sampling, J. Climate, 10, 1099-1113. 1 [5] C.J. Willmot, S.M. Robeson and M.J. Janis (1996), Comparison of approaches for estimating time-averaged precipitation using data from the United States, Int. J. Cli- matol., 16, 1103-1115. 2

A Semi-empirical Model of the Stratosphere in the Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sodergren, A. H.; Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.; Meinshausen, M.; McDonald, A.

2014-12-01

Chemistry climate models (CCMs) currently used to project changes in Antarctic ozone are extremely computationally demanding. CCM projections are uncertain due to lack of knowledge of future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone depleting substances (ODSs), as well as parameterizations within the CCMs that have weakly constrained tuning parameters. While projections should be based on an ensemble of simulations, this is not currently possible due to the complexity of the CCMs. An inexpensive but realistic approach to simulate changes in stratospheric ozone, and its coupling to the climate system, is needed as a complement to CCMs. A simple climate model (SCM) can be used as a fast emulator of complex atmospheric-ocean climate models. If such an SCM includes a representation of stratospheric ozone, the evolution of the global ozone layer can be simulated for a wide range of GHG and ODS emissions scenarios. MAGICC is an SCM used in previous IPCC reports. In the current version of the MAGICC SCM, stratospheric ozone changes depend only on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC). In this work, MAGICC is extended to include an interactive stratospheric ozone layer using a semi-empirical model of ozone responses to CO2and EESC, with changes in ozone affecting the radiative forcing in the SCM. To demonstrate the ability of our new, extended SCM to generate projections of global changes in ozone, tuning parameters from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and 10 carbon cycle models (to create an ensemble of 190 simulations) have been used to generate probability density functions of the dates of return of stratospheric column ozone to 1960 and 1980 levels for different latitudes.

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, J.J.; Shafer, S.L.; White, D.; Kareiva, P.; Maurer, E.P.; Blaustein, A.R.; Bartlein, P.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modelling the thermosteric contribution to global and regional sea-level rise during the last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singarayer, Joy; Stone, Emma; Whipple, Matthew; Lunt, Dan; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Gregory, Jonathan

2014-05-01

Global sea level during the last interglacial is likely to have been between 5.5 and 9m above present (Dutton and Lambeck, 2012). Recent calculations, taking into account latest NEEM ice core information, suggest that Greenland would probably not have contributed more than 2.2m to this (Stone et al, 2013), implying a considerable contribution from Antarctica. Previous studies have suggested a significant loss from the West Antarctic ice-sheet (e.g. Holden et al, 2010), which could be initiated following a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and resultant warming in the Southern Ocean. Here, model simulations with FAMOUS and HadCM3 have been performed of the last interglacial under various scenarios of reduced Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet configurations, and with and without collapsed AMOC. Thermal expansion and changes in regional density structure (resulting from ocean circulation changes) can also influence sea level, in addition to ice mass effects discussed thus far. The HadCM3 and FAMOUS simulations will be used to estimate the contribution to global and regional sea level change in interglacials from the latter two factors using a similar methodology to the IPCC TAR/AR4 estimations of future sea level rise (Gregory and Lowe, 2000). The HadCM3 and FAMOUS both have a rigid lid in their ocean model, and consequently a fixed ocean volume. Thermal expansion can, however, be calculated as a volume change from in-situ density (a prognostic variable from the model). Relative sea surface topography will then be estimated from surface pressure gradients and changes in atmospheric pressure. Dutton A., and Lambeck K., 2013. Ice Volume and Sea Level During the Last Interglacial. Science, 337, 216-219 Gregory J.M. and Lowe J.A., 2000. Predictions of global and regional sea-level using AOGCMs with and without flux adjustment. GRL, 27, 3069-3072 Holden P. et al., 2010. Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials. Clim. Past, 6, 431-443 Stone E.J., et al., 2013. Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise. Clim. Past, 9, 621-639

Ocean Heat and Carbon Uptake in Transient Climate Change: Identifying Model Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanou, Anastasia; Marshall, John

2015-01-01

Global warming on decadal and centennial timescales is mediated and ameliorated by the oceansequestering heat and carbon into its interior. Transient climate change is a function of the efficiency by whichanthropogenic heat and carbon are transported away from the surface into the ocean interior (Hansen et al. 1985).Gregory and Mitchell (1997) and Raper et al. (2002) were the first to identify the importance of the ocean heat uptakeefficiency in transient climate change. Observational estimates (Schwartz 2012) and inferences from coupledatmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; Gregory and Forster 2008; Marotzke et al. 2015), suggest thatocean heat uptake efficiency on decadal timescales lies in the range 0.5-1.5 W/sq m/K and is thus comparable to theclimate feedback parameter (Murphy et al. 2009). Moreover, the ocean not only plays a key role in setting the timing ofwarming but also its regional patterns (Marshall et al. 2014), which is crucial to our understanding of regional climate,carbon and heat uptake, and sea-level change. This short communication is based on a presentation given by A.Romanou at a recent workshop, Oceans Carbon and Heat Uptake: Uncertainties and Metrics, co-hosted by US CLIVARand OCB. As briefly reviewed below, we have incomplete but growing knowledge of how ocean models used in climatechange projections sequester heat and carbon into the interior. To understand and thence reduce errors and biases inthe ocean component of coupled models, as well as elucidate the key mechanisms at work, in the final section we outlinea proposed model intercomparison project named FAFMIP. In FAFMIP, coupled integrations would be carried out withprescribed overrides of wind stress and freshwater and heat fluxes acting at the sea surface.

Effectiveness and limitations of parameter tuning in reducing biases of top-of-atmosphere radiation and clouds in MIROC version 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogura, Tomoo; Shiogama, Hideo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Yokohata, Tokuta; Annan, James D.; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Ushigami, Naoto; Hirota, Kazuya; Someya, Yu; Kamae, Youichi; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Kimoto, Masahide

2017-12-01

This study discusses how much of the biases in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and clouds can be removed by parameter tuning in the present-day simulation of a climate model in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) generation. We used output of a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) experiment conducted with an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) without flux adjustment. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) was used for the PPE experiment. Output of the PPE was compared with satellite observation data to evaluate the model biases and the parametric uncertainty of the biases with respect to TOA radiation and clouds. The results indicate that removing or changing the sign of the biases by parameter tuning alone is difficult. In particular, the cooling bias of the shortwave cloud radiative effect at low latitudes could not be removed, neither in the zonal mean nor at each latitude-longitude grid point. The bias was related to the overestimation of both cloud amount and cloud optical thickness, which could not be removed by the parameter tuning either. However, they could be alleviated by tuning parameters such as the maximum cumulus updraft velocity at the cloud base. On the other hand, the bias of the shortwave cloud radiative effect in the Arctic was sensitive to parameter tuning. It could be removed by tuning such parameters as albedo of ice and snow both in the zonal mean and at each grid point. The obtained results illustrate the benefit of PPE experiments which provide useful information regarding effectiveness and limitations of parameter tuning. Implementing a shallow convection parameterization is suggested as a potential measure to alleviate the biases in radiation and clouds.

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teshager, Awoke D.; Gassman, Philip W.; Schoof, Justin T.; Secchi, Silvia

2016-08-01

Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO2 in the late Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forrest, M.; Eronen, J. T.; Utescher, T.; Knorr, G.; Stepanek, C.; Lohmann, G.; Hickler, T.

2015-12-01

There is an increasing need to understand the pre-Quaternary warm climates, how climate-vegetation interactions functioned in the past, and how we can use this information to understand the present. Here we report vegetation modelling results for the Late Miocene (11-7 Ma) to study the mechanisms of vegetation dynamics and the role of different forcing factors that influence the spatial patterns of vegetation coverage. One of the key uncertainties is the atmospheric concentration of CO2 during past climates. Estimates for the last 20 million years range from 280 to 500 ppm. We simulated Late Miocene vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations, 280 ppm CO2 and 450 ppm CO2, with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) driven by climate input from a coupled AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model). The simulated vegetation was compared to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. For the comparison we developed a novel approach that uses information of the relative dominance of different plant functional types (PFTs) in the palaeobotanical data to provide a quantitative estimate of the agreement between the simulated and reconstructed vegetation. Based on this quantitative assessment we find that pre-industrial CO2 levels are largely consistent with the presence of seasonal temperate forests in Europe (suggested by fossil data) and open vegetation in North America (suggested by multiple lines of evidence). This suggests that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.

Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.

2010-01-01

West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.; Luo, L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E.; Anderson, B.; Bradbury, J.; DeGaetano, A.; Troy, T.J.; Wolfe, D.

2007-01-01

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen in the 21st Century: Projections of the Responses of an Old-Growth Douglas-Fir Forest in the Pacific Northwest under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Z.; Driscoll, C. T.; Hayhoe, K.; Pourmokhtarian, A.; Stoner, A. M. K.

2015-12-01

The biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, was applied to Watershed 2 in H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, to project ecosystem carbon and nitrogen responses under different future climate change scenarios. Downscaled climate change inputs derived from two IPCC scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were interpreted by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) at Andrews Forest. Model results showed decreases in foliar production under high temperature/CO2 scenarios due to increasing vapor pressure deficit. Projections by PnET-BGC suggest that under future climate changes in primary production coupled with an increasing rate of decomposition may result in decreases in litterfall carbon and nitrogen and soil organic carbon and nitrogen. Such changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen may cause wide range of changes in ecosystem processing of nitrogen and carbon, such as nitrogen mineralization, plant NH4+ uptake, and stream NH4+ and dissolved organic carbon concentrations depending on climate change scenario considered. Under most high emission scenarios, net nitrogen mineralization and plant NH4+ uptake are projected to increase until the end of this century as result of increasing temperature and associated higher rates of decomposition. An accumulation of nitrogen in plant tissue due to decreasing litterfall decreases plant demand for nitrogen. Such changes in nitrogen mineralization and uptake will result in increase in stream NH4+ concentrations under high emission scenarios. Under low emission scenarios, net nitrogen mineralization and plant NH4+ uptake are projected to increase up to mid-century, then slightly decrease until the end of the century.

Equilibrium and Effective Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugenstein, M.; Bloch-Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, as well as the real world, take thousands of years to equilibrate to CO2 induced radiative perturbations. Equilibrium climate sensitivity - a fully equilibrated 2xCO2 perturbation - has been used for decades as a benchmark in model intercomparisons, as a test of our understanding of the climate system and paleo proxies, and to predict or project future climate change. Computational costs and limited time lead to the widespread practice of extrapolating equilibrium conditions from just a few decades of coupled simulations. The most common workaround is the "effective climate sensitivity" - defined through an extrapolation of a 150 year abrupt2xCO2 simulation, including the assumption of linear climate feedbacks. The definitions of effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity are often mixed up and used equivalently, and it is argued that "transient climate sensitivity" is the more relevant measure for predicting the next decades. We present an ongoing model intercomparison, the "LongRunMIP", to study century and millennia time scales of AOGCM equilibration and the linearity assumptions around feedback analysis. As a true ensemble of opportunity, there is no protocol and the only condition to participate is a coupled model simulation of any stabilizing scenario simulating more than 1000 years. Many of the submitted simulations took several years to conduct. As of July 2016 the contribution comprises 27 scenario simulations of 13 different models originating from 7 modeling centers, each between 1000 and 6000 years. To contribute, please contact the authors as soon as possible We present preliminary results, discussing differences between effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity, the usefulness of transient climate sensitivity, extrapolation methods, and the state of the coupled climate system close to equilibrium. Caption for the Figure below: Evolution of temperature anomaly and radiative imbalance of 22 simulations with 12 models (color indicates the model). 20 year moving average.

An Analysis of the Climate Change Mitigation Potential through Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration in a Corn Belt Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattarai, M. D.; Secchi, S.; Schoof, J. T.

2015-12-01

The sequestration of carbon constitutes one of major options in agricultural climate change land-based mitigation. We examined the carbon sequestration potential of alternative agricultural land uses in an intensively farmed Corn Belt watershed. We Used downscaled data from eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for a simulation period between 2015 and 2099 with three emission pathways reflecting low, medium and high greenhouse gas scenarios. The use of downscaled data, coupled with high resolution land use and soil data, can help policy makers and land managers better understand spatial and temporal impacts of climate change. We consider traditional practices such as no-till corn-soybean rotations and continuous corn and include also switchgrass, a bioenergy crop. Our results show that switching from conventional tillage continuous corn to no-till corn-soybean can sequester the equivalent of 156,000 MtCO2 of soil organic carbon with a sequestration rate of 2.38 MtCO2 ha-1 yr-1 for the simulated period. Our results also indicate that switchgrass can sequester the equivalent of 282,000 MtCO2 of soil organic carbon with a sequestration rate of 4.4 MtCO2 ha-1 yr-1 for the period. Our finding also suggests that while climate change impacts corn and soybean yields, it does not have a significant effect on switchgrass yields possibly due to carbon fertilization effect on switchgrass yields.

Assessing Potential Implications of Climate Change for Long-Term Water Resources Planning in the Colorado River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munevar, A.; Butler, S.; Anderson, R.; Rippole, J.

2008-12-01

While much of the focus on climate change impacts to water resources in the western United States has been related to snow-dominated watersheds, lower elevation basins such as the Colorado River Basin in Texas are dependent on rainfall as the predominant form of precipitation and source of supply. Water management in these basins has evolved to adapt to extreme climatic and hydrologic variability, but the impact of climate change is potentially more acute due to rapid runoff response and subsequent greater soil moisture depletion during the dry seasons. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) - San Antonio Water System (SAWS) Water Project is being studied to conserve water, develop conjunctive groundwater supplies, and capture excess and unused river flows to meet future water needs for two neighboring regions in Texas. Agricultural and other rural water needs would be met on a more reliable basis in the lower Colorado River Basin through water conservation, surface water development and limited groundwater production. Surface water would be transferred to the San Antonio area to meet municipal needs in quantities still being evaluated. Detailed studies are addressing environmental, agricultural, socioeconomic, and engineering aspects of the project. Key planning activities include evaluating instream flow criteria, water quality, bay freshwater inflow criteria, surface water availability and operating approaches, agricultural conservation measures, groundwater availability, and economics. Models used to estimate future water availability and environmental flow requirements have been developed largely based on historical observed hydrologic data. This is a common approach used by water planners as well as by many regulatory agencies for permit review. In view of the project's 80-yr planning horizon, contractual obligations, comments from the Science Review Panel, and increased public and regulatory awareness of climate change issues, the project team is exploring climate change projections and methods to assess potential impacts over the project's expected life. Following an initial qualitative risk assessment, quantitative climate scenarios were developed based on multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations under a range of global emission scenarios. Projected temperature and precipitation changes were evaluated from 112 downscaled AOGCM projections. A Four scenarios were selected for detailed hydrologic evaluations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale model. A quantile mapping procedure was applied to map future climatological period change statistics onto the long-term natural climate variability in the observed record. Simulated changes in runoff, river flow, evaporation, and evapotranspiration are used to generate adjustments to historical hydrology for assessment of potential changes to surface water availability, river water quality, riverine habitat, and Bay health. Projected temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used to estimate changes in agricultural demand. Sea level rise scenarios that include trends in Gulf Coast shelf subsidence are combined with changes in inflows to evaluate increased coastal erosion, upland migration of the estuary, and changes to the salinity regime. Results of the scenario-based analyses are being considered in the development of adaptive management strategies for future operations of the system and the proposed project.

ENSO Prediction in the NASA GMAO GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovach, R. M.; Borovikov, A.; Marshak, J.; Pawson, S.; Vernieres, G.

2016-12-01

Seasonal-to-Interannual coupled forecasts are conducted in near-real time with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). A 30-year suite of 9-month hindcasts is available, initialized with the MERRA-Ocean, MERRA-Land, and MERRA atmospheric fields. These forecasts are used to predict the timing and magnitude of ENSO and other short-term climate variability. The 2015 El Niño peaked in November 2015 and was considered a "very strong" event with the Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea-surface-temperature (SST) anomalies higher than 2.0 °C. These very strong temperature anomalies began in Sep/Oct/Nov (SON) of 2015 and persisted through Dec/Jan/Feb (DJF) of 2016. The other two very strong El Niño events recently recorded occurred in 1981/82 and 1997/98. The GEOS-5 system began predicting a very strong El Niño for SON starting with the March 2015 forecast. At this time, the GMAO forecast was an outlier in both the NMME and IRI multi-model ensemble prediction plumes. The GMAO May 2015 forecast for the November 2015 peak in temperature anomaly in the Niño3.4 region was in excellent agreement with the real event, but in May this forecast was still one of the outliers in the multi-model forecasts. The GEOS-5 May 2015 forecast also correctly predicted the weakening of the Eastern Pacific (Niño1+2) anomalies for SON. We will present a summary of the NASA GMAO GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System skills based on historic hindcasts. Initial conditions, prediction of ocean surface and subsurface evolution for the 2015/16 El Niño will be compared to the 1998/97 event. GEOS-5 capability to predict the precipitation, i.e. to model the teleconnection patterns associated with El Niño will also be shown. To conclude, we will highlight some new developments in the GEOS forecasting system.

Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting at NASA in Support of the National Earth System Prediction Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Considine, D. B.; Pawson, S.; Koster, R. D.; Kovach, R. M.; Vernieres, G.; Schubert, S. D.

2016-12-01

NASA has developed and maintains, within the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), a seasonal-to-interannual prediction activity in support of the National ESPC, based on the GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). This system generates atmospheric, land, and ocean/ice analyses that are used to produce global forecasts. Each month, a 17-member ensemble of forecasts is made, from which various oceanic indices (e.g., El Niño, East Indian Dipole, Atlantic SST anomalies), are computed. Additionally, monthly and seasonal anomalies are computed for several variables from the atmosphere (e.g., 2-meter temperatures, precipitation, geopotential heights), land (drought indices), ocean (subsurface temperature anomalies), and sea ice. These forecasts are provided to the National Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) sea ice outlook. The quasi-operational nature of this system, with constant generation of products that are shared with the broader community, allows for continual assessment of the impacts of NASA observations on seasonal forecasts - a current example is the altimetry data from the JASON series of satellites. The GMAO's seasonal prediction system is currently being upgraded. Alongside typical enhancements, such as increased spatial resolution and use of more recent model versions with improved representation of physical processes, these developments are designed to enhance the use of NASA observations. One example is the use of aerosol information from NASA's EOS instruments (MODIS). A major motivation is also to include NASA's novel data types, such as soil-moisture from SMAP and other sources of oceanic information (such as salinity). This approach enables NASA to continue contributing to national seasonal forecasting efforts, while simultaneously introducing its novel observing capabilities into the seasonal system in a manner that can demonstrate their systematic impacts on the quality of the products.

Prediction Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2010-01-01

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is a core NASA resource for the development and use of satellite observations through the integrating tools of models and assimilation systems. Global ocean, atmosphere and land surface models are developed as components of assimilation and forecast systems that are used for addressing the weather and climate research questions identified in NASA's science mission. In fact, the GMAO is actively engaged in addressing one of NASA's science mission s key questions concerning how well transient climate variations can be understood and predicted. At weather time scales the GMAO is developing ultra-high resolution global climate models capable of resolving high impact weather systems such as hurricanes. The ability to resolve the detailed characteristics of weather systems within a global framework greatly facilitates addressing fundamental questions concerning the link between weather and climate variability. At sub-seasonal time scales, the GMAO is engaged in research and development to improve the use of land information (especially soil moisture), and in the improved representation and initialization of various sub-seasonal atmospheric variability (such as the MJO) that evolves on time scales longer than weather and involves exchanges with both the land and ocean The GMAO has a long history of development for advancing the seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction problem using an older version of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This includes the development of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to facilitate the multivariate assimilation of ocean surface altimetry, and an EnKF developed for the highly inhomogeneous nature of the errors in land surface models, as well as the multivariate assimilation needed to take advantage of surface soil moisture and snow observations. The importance of decadal variability, especially that associated with long-term droughts is well recognized by the climate community. An improved understanding of the nature of decadal variability and its predictability has important implications for efforts to assess the impacts of global change in the coming decades. In fact, the GMAO has taken on the challenge of carrying out experimental decadal predictions in support of the IPCC AR5 effort.

Late Quaternary Variability of Arctic Sea Ice: Insights From Biomarker Proxy Records and Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, R. H.; Fahl, K.; Gierz, P.; Niessen, F.; Lohmann, G.

2017-12-01

Over the last about four decades, coinciding with global warming and atmospheric CO2increase, the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, a decrease much more rapid than predicted by climate models. The driving forces of this change are still not fully understood. In this context, detailed paleoclimatic records going back beyond the timescale of direct observations, i.e., high-resolution Holocene records but also records representing more distant warm periods, may help to to distinguish and quantify more precisely the natural and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing of global climate change and related sea ice decrease. Here, we concentrate on sea ice biomarker records representing the penultimate glacial/last interglacial (MIS 6/MIS 5e) and the Holocene time intervals. Our proxy records are compared with climate model simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Based on our data, polynya-type sea ice conditions probably occurred off the major ice sheets along the northern Barents and East Siberian continental margins during late MIS 6. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even during MIS 5e, i.e., a time interval when the high latitudes have been significantly warmer than today, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Assuming a closed Bering Strait (no Pacific Water inflow) during early MIS 5, model simulations point to a significantly reduced sea ice cover in the central Arctic Ocean, a scenario that is however not supported by the proxy record and thus seems to be less realistic. Our Holocene biomarker proxy records from the Chukchi Sea indicate that main factors controlling the millennial Holocene variability in sea ice are probably changes in surface water and heat flow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean as well as the long-term decrease in summer insolation. Here, increased Pacific Water inflow (and heat flux) may have triggered the contemporaneous decrease in sea ice and maximum surface-water productivity during mid-Holocene times.

Transient climate simulation from the Maunder Minimum to present day using prescribed changes in GHG, total/spectral solar irradiance and ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Schimanke, Semjon

A fully coupled AO-GCM including representation of the middle atmosphere is used for tran-sient simulation of climate from 1630 to 2000 AD. For better representation of changes in the UV/visible part of the solar spectrum an improved short-wave radiation scheme is implemented. The model is driven by changes in GHG concentrations, solar activity and volcanic eruptions. Solar variability is introduced via changes in total/spectral solar irradiance (TSI/SSI) and pre-scribed changes in stratospheric ozone. The secular trend in TSI is in the range of 0.1 percent increase from Maunder Minimum to present-day. Volcanic eruptions are represented via abrupt reduction in TSI. With the applied forcings the model does not simulate a clear reduction of the annual Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean near surface temperature during Maunder Minimum. By contrast the Dalton Minimum is characterized by distinct cooling and there is a significant raise of NH mean near surface temperature until the end of the 20th century. Focusing on the North Atlantic/European region the winter mean near surface temperature change pat-tern from Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) to present-day (1960-1990) reveals maximum warming over north-eastern Europe and cooling over the western North Atlantic with maxi-mum cooling west of Greenland. These changes can partly be explained by a shift of the NAO towards a more positive phase. The simulated changes in tropospheric circulation are discussed with special emphasize on the role of the solar forcing. Besides the stratospheric solar forcing which may affect NAO variability via downward propagation of the solar signal from the strato-sphere to the troposphere the magnitude of the secular trend in TSI might play a role. For the period from Maunder Minimum to present-day the simulation shows less near surface temper-ature increase especially over arctic regions when compared to simulations performed with the same model including the standard radiation scheme but applying larger TSI variations. The associated changes in lower tropospheric baroclinicity are more favourable for synoptic scale wave activity over the North Atlantic and might thereby contribute to strengthening of the NAO.

Understanding Climate Uncertainty with an Ocean Focus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokmakian, R. T.

2009-12-01

Uncertainty in climate simulations arises from various aspects of the end-to-end process of modeling the Earth’s climate. First, there is uncertainty from the structure of the climate model components (e.g. ocean/ice/atmosphere). Even the most complex models are deficient, not only in the complexity of the processes they represent, but in which processes are included in a particular model. Next, uncertainties arise from the inherent error in the initial and boundary conditions of a simulation. Initial conditions are the state of the weather or climate at the beginning of the simulation and other such things, and typically come from observations. Finally, there is the uncertainty associated with the values of parameters in the model. These parameters may represent physical constants or effects, such as ocean mixing, or non-physical aspects of modeling and computation. The uncertainty in these input parameters propagates through the non-linear model to give uncertainty in the outputs. The models in 2020 will no doubt be better than today’s models, but they will still be imperfect, and development of uncertainty analysis technology is a critical aspect of understanding model realism and prediction capability. Smith [2002] and Cox and Stephenson [2007] discuss the need for methods to quantify the uncertainties within complicated systems so that limitations or weaknesses of the climate model can be understood. In making climate predictions, we need to have available both the most reliable model or simulation and a methods to quantify the reliability of a simulation. If quantitative uncertainty questions of the internal model dynamics are to be answered with complex simulations such as AOGCMs, then the only known path forward is based on model ensembles that characterize behavior with alternative parameter settings [e.g. Rougier, 2007]. The relevance and feasibility of using "Statistical Analysis of Computer Code Output" (SACCO) methods for examining uncertainty in ocean circulation due to parameter specification will be described and early results using the ocean/ice components of the CCSM climate model in a designed experiment framework will be shown. Cox, P. and D. Stephenson, Climate Change: A Changing Climate for Prediction, 2007, Science 317 (5835), 207, DOI: 10.1126/science.1145956. Rougier, J. C., 2007: Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations, Climatic Change, 81, 247-264. Smith L., 2002, What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proc. Nat’l Academy of Sciences, Vol. 99, suppl. 1, 2487-2492 doi:10.1073/pnas.012580599.

GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borovikov, Anna; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

2018-01-01

The GEOS-5 AOGCM known as S2S-1.0 has been in service from June 2012 through January 2018 (Borovikov et al. 2017). The atmospheric component of S2S-1.0 is Fortuna-2.5, the same that was used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), but with adjusted parameterization of moist processes and turbulence. The ocean component is the Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4). The sea ice component is the Community Ice CodE, version 4 (CICE). The land surface model is a catchment-based hydrological model coupled to the multi-layer snow model. The AGCM uses a Cartesian grid with a 1 deg × 1.25 deg horizontal resolution and 72 hybrid vertical levels with the upper most level at 0.01 hPa. OGCM nominal resolution of the tripolar grid is 1/2 deg, with a meridional equatorial refinement to 1/4 deg. In the coupled model initialization, selected atmospheric variables are constrained with MERRA. The Goddard Earth Observing System integrated Ocean Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS) is used for both ocean state and sea ice initialization. SST, T and S profiles and sea ice concentration were assimilated.

Adaptation options to future climate of maize crop in Southern Italy examined using thermal sums

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Tommasi, P.; Alfieri, S. M.; Bonfante, A.; Basile, A.; De Lorenzi, F.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

Future climate scenarios predict substantial changes in air temperature within a few decades and agriculture needs to increase the capacity of adaptation both by changing spatial distribution of crops and shifting timing of management. In this context the prediction of future behaviour of crops with respect to present climate could be useful for farm and landscape management. In this work, thermal sums were used to simulate a maize crop in a future scenario, in terms of length of the growing season and of intervals between the main phenological stages. The area under study is the Sele plain (Campania Region), a pedo-climatic homogeneous area, one of the most agriculturally advanced and relevant flatland in Southern Italy. Maize was selected for the present study since it is extensively grown in the Sele Plain for water buffalofeeding,. Daily time-series of climatic data of the area under study were generated within the Italian project AGROSCENARI, and include maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. The 1961-1990 and the 1998-2008 periods were compared to a future climate scenario (2021-2050). Future time series were generated using a statistical downscaling technique (Tomozeiu et al., 2007) from general circulation models (AOGCM). Differences in crop development length were calculated for different maize varieties under 3 management options for sowing time: custom date (typical for the area), before and after custom date. The interactions between future thermal regime and the length of growing season under the different management options were analyzed. Moreover, frequency of spells of high temperatures during the anthesis was examined. The feasibility of the early sowing option was discussed in relation with field trafficability at the beginning of the crop cycle. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Hydrological risks of a 2.0 oC warmer world: Assessing infrastructure exposure to the Paris Agreement.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paltan, H.; Allen, M. R.; Haustein, K.; Dadson, S. J.

2017-12-01

The Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in its Paris Agreement in December 2015 agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2.0 °C above pre- industrial levels. Nonetheless it is not yet clear how hydrological risks would change when this threshold is reached. In consequence, this may have important repercussions to existent or planned infrastructure as their functioning and the service they provide may be undermined if they do not adapt to shifts in water variability and, thus compromising global water security. In this study, we estimate the way in which hydrological risks will differ in a world 2 °C warmer. We used multi-ensembles outputs from 4 general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating in the HAPPI experimental protocol to generate global future river flows. From here we calculate extreme value probabilistics to calculate the increase in the frequency of the 100-year return period flow. Globally, we find that areas such as China and South Asia will be severly affecteed. Additional important changes are detected in Eastern Europe and in the area sorrounding the Gulf of California. Lastly, as a case study we show the implications of this climate target in the hydropower and transport infrastructure of Myanmar. We find that about 40% of mapped hydropower sites are in areas where the historical 100-year return period flow will significantly increase their frequency. We also find that about 30% of the roads and about 35% of the rail network of Myanmar are importantly exposed to such increases. We expect that this study is an initial step to analyse the propagation of hydrological risk associated with the Paris outcome; and thus, offer a tool to detect vulnerable population groups and economic sectors.

Effects of future climate change on grape and wine quality: a case study for the Aglianico grape, Campania. Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, Antonello; Gambuti, Angelita; Monaco, Eugenia; Langella, Giuliano; Manna, Piero; Orefice, Nadia; Albrizio, Rossella; Basile, Angelo; Terribile, Fabio

2016-04-01

Water deficits limit yields and this is one of the negative aspects of climate change. However, this applies particularly when emphasis is on biomass production (e.g. for crops like maize, wheat, etc.) but not for plants where quality, not quantity is most relevant. For example, water stress occurring during specific phenological phases of grapevine development is an important factor when producing good quality wines. It induces, for example, the production of anthocyanins and aroma precursors. Water stress due to future increases of temperature and decreases of rainfall due to climate change can, therefore, represent an opportunity to increase winegrowers' incomes. This study was carried out in Campania region (Southern Italy), an area well known for high quality wine production. Growth of the Aglianico grapevine cultivar, with a standard clone population on 1103 Paulsen rootstocks, was studied on two different types of soil: Calcisols and Cambisols occurring along a slope of 90 m length with 11% gradient. The agro-hydrological model SWAP was calibrated and applied to estimate soil-plant water status at the various crop phenological phases for three vintages (2011-2013). Then, the Crop water stress index (CWSI), as estimated by the model, was related to physiological measurements (e.g. leaf water potential), grape bunches measurements (e.g. sugar content) and wine quality (e.g. tannins). For both soils, the correlation between measurements and CWSI were high (e.g. -0.97** with sugar; 0.895* with anthocyanins in the skins). Next, the model was applied to future climate conditions (2021-2051) obtained from statistical downscaling of Global Circulation Models (AOGCM) in order to estimate the effect of the climate on CWSI and hence on vine quality. Results show that the effects of climate change on grape and wine quality are not expected to be significant for this particular grape variety when grown on these Calcisols and Cambisols. However, significant differences are found between the two soils in terms of ultra, standard and low quality grapes, which confirms the reliability of the terroir concept for the Calcisol. CWSI >15 values for the Calcisol indicate the potential benefits of drip irrigation which is, however, not allowed under current regulations.

Adaptive management of irrigation and crops' biodiversity: a case study on tomato

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzi, Francesca; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Monaco, Eugenia; Riccardi, Maria; Menenti, Massimo

2013-04-01

We have assessed the impacts of climate change and evaluated options to adapt irrigation management in the face of predicted changes of agricultural water demand. We have evaluated irrigation scheduling and its effectiveness (versus crop transpiration), and cultivars' adaptability. The spatial and temporal variations of effectiveness and adaptability were studied in an irrigated district of Southern Italy. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data consist of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. The work was carried out in the Destra Sele irrigation scheme (18.000 ha. Twenty-five soil units were identified and their hydrological properties were determined (measured or estimated from texture through pedo-transfer functions). A tomato crop, in a rotation typical of the area, was considered. A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was used to study crop water requirements and water consumption. The model was calibrated and validated in the same area for many different crops. Tomato crop input data and model parameters were estimated on the basis of scientific literature and assumed to be generically representative of the species. Simulations were performed for reference and future climate, and for different irrigation scheduling options. In all soil units, six levels of irrigation volumes were applied: full irrigation (100%), deficit irrigation (80%, 60%, 40%, 20%), no irrigation. From simulation runs, indicators of soil water availability were calculated, moreover the marginal increases of transpiration per unit of irrigation volume, i.e. the effectiveness of irrigation (ΔT/I), were computed, in both climate scenarios. Indicators and marginal increases were used to evaluate the tomato crop adaptability to future climate. To this purpose, for several tomato cultivars, threshold values of their yield responses to soil water availability were determined (data from scientific literature). Cultivars' threshold values were evaluated, in all soil units, against the indicators' values, for irrigation levels with different ΔT/I. Less water intensive cultivars and irrigation volumes that optimize transpiration (and yield) could thus be identified in both climate scenarios, and irrigation management scenarios were determined taking into account soils' hydrological properties, crop biodiversity, and efficient use of water resource. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, adaptation, simulation models, deficit irrigation, water resource efficiency, SWAP

Electrical Lumped Model Examination for Load Variation of Circulation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koya, Yoshiharu; Ito, Mitsuyo; Mizoshiri, Isao

Modeling and analysis of the circulation system enables the characteristic decision of circulation system in the body to be made. So, many models of circulation system have been proposed. But, they are complicated because the models include a lot of elements. Therefore, we proposed a complete circulation model as a lumped electrical circuit, which is comparatively simple. In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of the complete circulation model as a lumped electrical circuit. We use normal, angina pectoris, dilated cardiomyopathy and myocardial infarction for evaluation of the ventricular contraction function.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

2018-04-01

In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

Understanding and Portraying the Global Atmospheric Circulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrington, John, Jr.; Oliver, John E.

2000-01-01

Examines teaching models of atmospheric circulation and resultant surface pressure patterns, focusing on the three-cell model and the meaning of meridional circulation as related to middle and high latitudes. Addresses the failure of the three-cell model to explain seasonal variations in atmospheric circulation. Suggests alternative models. (CMK)

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

2018-04-01

The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional and zonal components of global atmospheric circulation.

A common fallacy in climate model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annan, J. D.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Tachiiri, K.

2012-04-01

We discuss the assessment of model ensembles such as that arising from the CMIP3 coordinated multi-model experiments. An important aspect of this is not merely the closeness of the models to observations in absolute terms but also the reliability of the ensemble spread as an indication of uncertainty. In this context, it has been widely argued that the multi-model ensemble of opportunity is insufficiently broad to adequately represent uncertainties regarding future climate change. For example, the IPCC AR4 summarises the consensus with the sentence: "Those studies also suggest that the current AOGCMs may not cover the full range of uncertainty for climate sensitivity." Similar claims have been made in the literature for other properties of the climate system, including the transient climate response and efficiency of ocean heat uptake. Comparison of model outputs with observations of the climate system forms an essential component of model assessment and is crucial for building our confidence in model predictions. However, methods for undertaking this comparison are not always clearly justified and understood. Here we show that the popular approach which forms the basis for the above claims, of comparing the ensemble spread to a so-called "observationally-constrained pdf", can be highly misleading. Such a comparison will almost certainly result in disagreement, but in reality tells us little about the performance of the ensemble. We present an alternative approach based on an assessment of the predictive performance of the ensemble, and show how it may lead to very different, and rather more encouraging, conclusions. We additionally outline some necessary conditions for an ensemble (or more generally, a probabilistic prediction) to be challenged by an observation.

Using a Gravity Model to Predict Circulation in a Public Library System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ottensmann, John R.

1995-01-01

Describes the development of a gravity model based upon principles of spatial interaction to predict the circulation of libraries in the Indianapolis-Marion County Public Library (Indiana). The model effectively predicted past circulation figures and was tested by predicting future library circulation, particularly for a new branch library.…

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Held, Isaac M.; Leetmaa, Ants; Harrison, Matthew J.

2006-05-01

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean-driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east-known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, B.; Crane, R. G.

1992-01-01

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

2018-04-01

Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are underestimated. On the other hand, many G2 models are able to represent most of large-scale circulation over Indo-Pacific region associated with El Niño and hence provide more realistic ENSO-ISM teleconnections. Therefore, this study advocates the importance of representation/simulation of large-scale circulation patterns during El Niño years in coupled models in order to capture El Niño-monsoon teleconnections well.

Simulation of seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation using coupled atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolstykh, M. A.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Kiktev, D. B.

2014-03-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model intended for the simulation of coupled circulation at time scales up to a season is developed. The semi-Lagrangian atmospheric general circulation model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, SLAV, is coupled with the sigma model of ocean general circulation developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), INMOM. Using this coupled model, numerical experiments on ensemble modeling of the atmosphere and ocean circulation for up to 4 months are carried out using real initial data for all seasons of an annual cycle in 1989-2010. Results of these experiments are compared to the results of the SLAV model with the simple evolution of the sea surface temperature. A comparative analysis of seasonally averaged anomalies of atmospheric circulation shows prospects in applying the coupled model for forecasts. It is shown with the example of the El Niño phenomenon of 1997-1998 that the coupled model forecasts the seasonally averaged anomalies for the period of the nonstationary El Niño phase significantly better.

Library Circulation Systems: An Overview

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Surace, Cecily J.

1972-01-01

The model circulation system outlined is an on-line real time system in which the circulation file is created from the shelf list. The model extends beyond the operational limits of most existing circulation systems and can be considered a reflection of the current state of the art. (36 references) (Author/NH)

Objective Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in the North-West Pacific Basin Based on Wind Field Information only

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Befort, D. J.; Kruschke, T.

2016-12-01

Although only ca. 12% of the global insured losses of natural disasters occurred in Asia, there are two major reasons to be concerned about risks in Asia: a) The fraction of loss events was substantial higher with 39% of which 94% were due to atmospheric processes; b) Asia and especially China, is undergoing quick transitions and especially the insurance market is rapidly growing. In order to allow for the estimation of potential future (loss) impacts in East-Asia, in this study we further developed and applied a feature tracking system based on extreme wind speed occurrences to tropical cyclones, which was originally developed for extra-tropical cyclones (Leckebusch et al., 2008). In principle, wind fields will be identified and tracked once a coherent exceedance of local percentile thresholds is identified. The focus on severe wind impact will allow an objective link between the strength of a cyclone and its potential damages over land. The wind tracking is developed in such a way to be applicable also to course-gridded AOGCM simulation. In the presented configuration the wind tracking algorithm is applied to the Japanese reanalysis (JRA55) and TC Identification is based on 850hPa wind speeds (6h resolution) from 1979 to 2014 over the Western North Pacific region. For validation the IBTrACS Best Track archive version v03r8 is used. Out of all 904 observed tracks, about 62% can be matched to at least one windstorm event identified in JRA55. It is found that the relative amount of matched best tracks increases with the maximum intensity. Thus, a positive matching (hit rate) of above 98% for Violent Typhoons (VTY), above 90% for Very Strong Typhoons (VSTY), about 75% for Typhoons (TY), and still some 50% for less intense TCs (TD, TS, STS) is found. This result is extremely encouraging to apply this technique to AOGCM outputs and to derive information about affected regions and intensity-frequency distributions potentially changed under future climate conditions.

A blood circulation model for reference man

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Williams, L.R.

This paper describes a dynamic blood circulation model that predicts the movement and gradual dispersal of a bolus of material in the circulation after its intravascular injection into an adult human. The main purpose of the model is to improve the dosimetry of internally deposited radionuclides that decay in the circulation to a significant extent. The total blood volume is partitioned into the blood contents of 24 separate organs or tissues, right heart chambers, left heart chambers, pulmonary circulation, arterial outflow to the systemic tissues (aorta and large arteries), and venous return from the systemic tissues (large veins). As amore » compromise between physical reality and computational simplicity, the circulation of blood is viewed as a system of first-order transfers between blood pools, with the delay time depending on the mean transit time across the pool. The model allows consideration of incomplete, tissue-dependent extraction of material during passage through the circulation and return of material from tissues to plasma.« less

Solar related waves in the Venusian atmosphere from the cloud tops to 100 km

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elson, L. S.

1983-01-01

A quasi-linear diagnostic model using observed solar-related temperatures and a specified solar mean circulation and surface structure to find the solar-related circulation above the clouds of Venus is presented. Despite the greater dependence of model-derived, solar-related circulation on the mean flow than is the case for terrestrial tides, as well as the uncertainty concerning this mean flow, significant conclusions are drawn for the solar-related circulation and thermal structure of Venus. An anomalously large response is found in the polar regions, due to the model's requirement of a process such as dissipation which will act as a major sink for momentum. Dissipation is specified in the model as Rayleigh friction with an unknown free parameter coefficient. In view of this, dissipation is either very efficient by terrestrial standards and accompanied by small solar-related circulation, or similar to that of earth and possessed of a circulation large enough to have an impact on the mean circulation.

Complex mean circulation over the inner shelf south of Martha's Vineyard revealed by observations and a high-resolution model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Lentz, Steven J.; Kirincich, Anthony R.; Farrar, J. Thomas

2011-01-01

Inner-shelf circulation is governed by the interaction between tides, baroclinic forcing, winds, waves, and frictional losses; the mean circulation ultimately governs exchange between the coast and ocean. In some cases, oscillatory tidal currents interact with bathymetric features to generate a tidally rectified flow. Recent observational and modeling efforts in an overlapping domain centered on the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO) provided an opportunity to investigate the spatial and temporal complexity of circulation on the inner shelf. ADCP and surface radar observations revealed a mean circulation pattern that was highly variable in the alongshore and cross-shore directions. Nested modeling incrementally improved representation of the mean circulation as grid resolution increased and indicated tidal rectification as the generation mechanism of a counter-clockwise gyre near the MVCO. The loss of model skill with decreasing resolution is attributed to insufficient representation of the bathymetric gradients (Δh/h), which is important for representing nonlinear interactions between currents and bathymetry. The modeled momentum balance was characterized by large spatial variability of the pressure gradient and horizontal advection terms over short distances, suggesting that observed inner-shelf momentum balances may be confounded. Given the available observational and modeling data, this work defines the spatially variable mean circulation and its formation mechanism—tidal rectification—and illustrates the importance of model resolution for resolving circulation and constituent exchange near the coast. The results of this study have implications for future observational and modeling studies near the MVCO and other inner-shelf locations with alongshore bathymetric variability.

An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1998-01-01

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical 'cores' of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. The two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical 'simple physics' parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1998-01-01

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Cen- ter and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical "cores" of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. ne two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical "simple physics" parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santikayasa, I. P.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

Circulation and rainfall climatology of a 10-year (1979 - 1988) integration with the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheres general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, J.-H.; Sud, Y. C.

1993-01-01

A 10-year (1979-1988) integration of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) under Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) is analyzed and compared with observation. The first momentum fields of circulation variables and also hydrological variables including precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture are presented. Our goals are (1) to produce a benchmark documentation of the GLA GCM for future model improvements; (2) to examine systematic errors between the simulated and the observed circulation, precipitation, and hydrologic cycle; (3) to examine the interannual variability of the simulated atmosphere and compare it with observation; and (4) to examine the ability of the model to capture the major climate anomalies in response to events such as El Nino and La Nina. The 10-year mean seasonal and annual simulated circulation is quite reasonable compared to the analyzed circulation, except the polar regions and area of high orography. Precipitation over tropics are quite well simulated, and the signal of El Nino/La Nina episodes can be easily identified. The time series of evaporation and soil moisture in the 12 biomes of the biosphere also show reasonable patterns compared to the estimated evaporation and soil moisture.

Olive cultivars adaptability in Southern Italy in present and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riccardi, M.; Alfieri, S.; Bonfante, A.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Menenti, M.; De Lorenzi, F.

2012-04-01

The intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops is very significant and likely to provide the single major opportunity to cope with the effects of the changing climate on agricultural ecosystems. Assessment of adaptive capacity must rely on quantitative descriptions of plant responses to environmental factors (e.g. soil water availability, temperature). Moreover climate scenario needs to be downscaled to the spatial scale relevant to crop and farm management. Distributed models of crop response to environmental forcing might be used for this purpose, but severely constrained by the very scarce knowledge on variety-specific values of model parameters, thus limiting the potential exploitation of intra-specific biodiversity towards adaptation. We have developed an approach towards this objective that relies on two complementary elements: a)a distributed model of the soil plant atmosphere system to downscale climate scenarios to landscape units, where generic model parameters for each species are used; b)a data base on climatic requirements of as many varieties as feasible for each species relevant to the agricultural production system of a given region. By means of this approach, the adaptability of some olive cultivars was evaluated in a composite (hills and plains) area of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, Campania Region, about 20.000 ha). The yearly average temperature is 22.5 °C and rainfall ranges between 600 and 900 mm. Two different climate scenarios were considered: current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050). Future climate scenarios at low spatial resolution were generated with general circulation models (AOGCM) and down-scaled by means of a statistical model (Tomozeiu et al., 2007). The climate was represented by daily observations of minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km; 50 realizations were used for future climate. The soil water regime of 45 soil units was described for the two climate scenarios by using an hydrological distributed model (SWAP). For 11 olive cultivars, the yield response function to soil water regime was determined through the re-analysis of experimental data (unpublished or derived from scientific literature). According to these responses, cultivar-specific threshold values of soil water (or evapotranspiration) deficit were defined. The soil water regime calculated by the distributed model was compared with the threshold values to identify cultivars compatible with present and expected climates. The operation is repeated for a set of realizations of each climate scenario. This analysis is performed in a distributed manner, i.e. using the time series for each model grid to assess possible variations in the extent and spatial distribution of cultivated area of olive cultivars. In the study area future climate scenarios predict an increase of monthly minimum and maximum air temperature of about 2°C during the summer (June, July and August) and a reduction of rainfall in autumn. Spatial pattern of cultivars distribution, according their threshold values and soil water regime, was determined in the present and future climate scenarios, thus assessing variations in cultivars adaptability to future climate with respect to the present. Key words: climate change, biodiversity, water availability, yield response. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008).

Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the results of the earlier decisions, as simulated by C-ROADS. Preliminary evaluations show that both exercises have the potential to provide powerful learning experiences. University students who played World Climate in a climate change course cited it as one of the course activities "promoting the most learning." Students' responses on anonymous surveys and open-ended questions revealed that the experience affected them at visceral, as well as intellectual levels. All of the students recommended that the exercise be continued in future years and many felt that it was the most important learning experience of the semester. Similarly, understanding of climate change and the dynamics of the climate improved for the majority of Future Climate participants, and 90% of participants stated that they were more likely to take action to address climate change on a personal level because of their experience.

Sustainability of irrigated crops under future climate: the interplay of irrigation strategies and cultivar responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzi, F.; Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, S.; Patanè, C.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Monaco, E.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

Climate evolution will cause significant changes in the quality and availability of water resources, affecting many sectors including food production, where available water resources for irrigation play a crucial role. Strategies focused on managing and conserving water are one way to deal with the impact; moreover concurring adaptation measurements will be needed to cope with the foreseen decline of water resource. This work deals with i) the impacts of climate change on water requirements of an horticultural crop, determined in an irrigated district in Southern Italy, ii) the possible irrigation scheduling options and their sustainability in the future, iii) the adaptation measurements that can be undertaken to protect production, relying on intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops. Two climate scenarios were considered: present climate (1961-90) and future climate (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data set consists of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and rainfall on a grid with spatial resolution of 35 km. The analysis of climate scenarios showed that significant increases in summer maximum daily temperature could be expected in 2021-2050 period. Soil water regime was determined by means of a mechanistic model (SWAP) of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Twenty? soil units were identified in the district (in Sele Plain, Campania Region) and simulations were performed accounting for hydro-pedological properties of different soil units. Parameters of a generic tomato crop, in a rotation typical of the area, were used in simulations. Soil water balance was simulated in the present and future climate, both with optimal water availability and under constrains that irrigation schemes will pose. Indicators of soil water availability were calculated, in terms of soil water or evapotranspiration deficit. For several tomato cultivars, quantitative yield response functions to water availability were determined through the re-analysis of experimental data, derived from scientific literature. Variety-specific threshold values of yield reduction in dependence of soil water and evapotranspiration deficit were determined. The spatial pattern of soil water availability indicators was calculated., for present and future climate scenarios and for different irrigation scheduling options. Cultivars' threshold values were matched with indicators' values in all soil units. The future adaptability of the crop in the area is thus evaluated, and adaptation options that exploit the intra-specific biodiversity of the crop are indicated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, tomato, deficit irrigation, biodiversity

An Isopycnal Box Model with predictive deep-ocean structure for biogeochemical cycling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip

2012-07-01

To simulate global ocean biogeochemical tracer budgets a model must accurately determine both the volume and surface origins of each water-mass. Water-mass volumes are dynamically linked to the ocean circulation in General Circulation Models, but at the cost of high computational load. In computationally efficient Box Models the water-mass volumes are simply prescribed and do not vary when the circulation transport rates or water mass densities are perturbed. A new computationally efficient Isopycnal Box Model is presented in which the sub-surface box volumes are internally calculated from the prescribed circulation using a diffusive conceptual model of the thermocline, in which upwelling of cold dense water is balanced by a downward diffusion of heat. The volumes of the sub-surface boxes are set so that the density stratification satisfies an assumed link between diapycnal diffusivity, κd, and buoyancy frequency, N: κd = c/(Nα), where c and α are user prescribed parameters. In contrast to conventional Box Models, the volumes of the sub-surface ocean boxes in the Isopycnal Box Model are dynamically linked to circulation, and automatically respond to circulation perturbations. This dynamical link allows an important facet of ocean biogeochemical cycling to be simulated in a highly computationally efficient model framework.

Computational models of the pulmonary circulation: Insights and the move towards clinically directed studies

PubMed Central

Tawhai, Merryn H.; Clark, Alys R.; Burrowes, Kelly S.

2011-01-01

Biophysically-based computational models provide a tool for integrating and explaining experimental data, observations, and hypotheses. Computational models of the pulmonary circulation have evolved from minimal and efficient constructs that have been used to study individual mechanisms that contribute to lung perfusion, to sophisticated multi-scale and -physics structure-based models that predict integrated structure-function relationships within a heterogeneous organ. This review considers the utility of computational models in providing new insights into the function of the pulmonary circulation, and their application in clinically motivated studies. We review mathematical and computational models of the pulmonary circulation based on their application; we begin with models that seek to answer questions in basic science and physiology and progress to models that aim to have clinical application. In looking forward, we discuss the relative merits and clinical relevance of computational models: what important features are still lacking; and how these models may ultimately be applied to further increasing our understanding of the mechanisms occurring in disease of the pulmonary circulation. PMID:22034608

Seasonal overturning circulation in the Red Sea: 2. Winter circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Fengchao; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Pratt, Larry J.; Bower, Amy S.; Köhl, Armin; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Rivas, David

2014-04-01

The shallow winter overturning circulation in the Red Sea is studied using a 50 year high-resolution MITgcm (MIT general circulation model) simulation with realistic atmospheric forcing. The overturning circulation for a typical year, represented by 1980, and the climatological mean are analyzed using model output to delineate the three-dimensional structure and to investigate the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The horizontal model circulation in the winter of 1980 is dominated by energetic eddies. The climatological model mean results suggest that the surface inflow intensifies in a western boundary current in the southern Red Sea that switches to an eastern boundary current north of 24°N. The overturning is accomplished through a cyclonic recirculation and a cross-basin overturning circulation in the northern Red Sea, with major sinking occurring along a narrow band of width about 20 km along the eastern boundary and weaker upwelling along the western boundary. The northward pressure gradient force, strong vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing near the boundary are the essential dynamical components in the model's winter overturning circulation. The simulated water exchange is not hydraulically controlled in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb; instead, the exchange is limited by bottom and lateral boundary friction and, to a lesser extent, by interfacial friction due to the vertical viscosity at the interface between the inflow and the outflow.

Tracer transport by the diabatic circulation deduced from satellite observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, S.; Kiehl, J. T.; Garcia, R. R.; Grose, W.

1986-01-01

Nimbus-7 sensor data were used to track the diabatic circulation in the stratosphere to study the advective transport of CH4 and N2O as tracer species. Advective transport by the mean circulation was found to be a function of the temperature field and associated deviations from radiative equilibrium. A photochemical model was applied to account for the disappearance of the tracer species from the stratosphere. Comparisons between the SAMS data and modeling on the basis of the chemical loss rates of the tracers and the LIMS circulation data showed that the model predictions underestimated the resident abundances, although the global distributions and circulations exhibited a good match.

Does coupled ocean enhance ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere circulation changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, S. W.; Han, B. R.; Kim, S. Y.; Park, R.

2017-12-01

The ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation changes, such as poleward shift of westerly jet and Hadley cell widening, have been typically explored with either coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) prescribing stratospheric ozone or chemistry-climate models (CCMs) prescribing surface boundary conditions. Only few studies have utilized ocean-coupled CCMs with a relatively coarse resolution. To better quantify the role of interactive chemistry and coupled ocean in the ozone-hole-induced SH circulation changes, the present study examines a set of CGCM and CCM simulations archived for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CCM initiative (CCMI). Although inter-model spread of Antarctic ozone depletion is substantially large especially in the austral spring, both CGCMs with relatively simple ozone chemistry and CCMs with fully interactive comprehensive chemistry reasonably well reproduce long-term trends of Antarctic ozone and the associated polar-stratospheric temperature changes. Most models reproduce a poleward shift of SH jet and Hadley-cell widening in the austral summer in the late 20th century as identified in reanalysis datasets. These changes are quasi-linearly related with Antarctic ozone changes, confirming the critical role of Antarctic ozone depletion in the austral-summer zonal-mean circulation changes. The CGCMs with simple but still interactive ozone show slightly stronger circulation changes than those with prescribed ozone. However, the long-term circulation changes in CCMs are largely insensitive to the coupled ocean. While a few models show the enhanced circulation changes when ocean is coupled, others show essentially no changes or even weakened circulation changes. This result suggests that the ozone-hole-related stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the late 20th century may be only weakly sensitive to the coupled ocean.

U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

major contributors to the strength of the Gulf Stream, (1) the wind forcing, (2) the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and (3) a...convergence and sensitivity studies with North Atlantic circulation models. Part I. The western boundary current system. Ocean Model., 16, 141-159...a baroclinic version of ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), the latter an unstructured grid model for baroclinic coastal/estuarian applications. NCOM is

Do we know how to reconcile preservation of landscapes with adaptation of agriculture to climate change? A case-study in a hilly area in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menenti, Massimo; Alfieri, Silvia; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Monaco, Eugenia; Riccardi, Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

Limited impacts of climate change on agricultural yields are unlikely to induce any significant changes in current landscapes. Larger impacts, unacceptable on economic or social ground, are likely to trigger interventions towards adaptation of agricultural production systems by reducing or removing vulnerabilities to climate variability and change. Such interventions may require a transition to a different production system, i.e. complete substitution of current crops, or displacement of current crops at their current location towards other locations, e.g. at higher elevations within the landscape. We have assessed the impacts of climate change and evaluated options for adaptation of a valley in Southern Italy, dominated by vine and olive orchards with a significant presence of wheat. We have first estimated the climatic requirements of several varieties for each dominant species. Next, to identify options for adaptation we have evaluated the compatibility of such requirements with indicators of a reference (current) climate and of future climate. This climate - compatibility assessment was done for each soil unit within the valley, leading to maps of locations where each crop is expected to be compatible with climate. This leads to identify both potential crop substitutions within the entire valley and crop displacements from one location to another within the valley. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data consists of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. We evaluated the adaptive capacity of the "Valle Telesina" (Campania Region, Southern Italy). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was used to describe the hydrological conditions in response to climate for each soil unit. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were estimated on the basis of local experiments and of scientific literature and assumed to be generically representative of the species. Time series of MODIS TIR data were used to downscale gridded climate data on air temperature for both the reference and the future climate. The results indicate that no complete crop substitution will be required within this time frame, i.e. the Valle Telesina will preserve its typical landscape features of a vine - olive orchards dominated production system, typical of many regions in Mediterranean Europe. On the other hand very significant crop displacements will be necessary to grow each variety under optimal hydrothermal conditions, from the point of view of both quantity and quality of yield. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, M.; Matsuno, T.; Tomita, H.; Miura, H.; Nasuno, T.; Iga, S.

2008-03-01

A new type of ultra-high resolution atmospheric global circulation model is developed. The new model is designed to perform "cloud resolving simulations" by directly calculating deep convection and meso-scale circulations, which play key roles not only in the tropical circulations but in the global circulations of the atmosphere. Since cores of deep convection have a few km in horizontal size, they have not directly been resolved by existing atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In order to drastically enhance horizontal resolution, a new framework of a global atmospheric model is required; we adopted nonhydrostatic governing equations and icosahedral grids to the new model, and call it Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). In this article, we review governing equations and numerical techniques employed, and present the results from the unique 3.5-km mesh global experiments—with O(10 9) computational nodes—using realistic topography and land/ocean surface thermal forcing. The results show realistic behaviors of multi-scale convective systems in the tropics, which have not been captured by AGCMs. We also argue future perspective of the roles of the new model in the next generation atmospheric sciences.

Minimal modeling of the extratropical general circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Brien, Enda; Branscome, Lee E.

1989-01-01

The ability of low-order, two-layer models to reproduce basic features of the mid-latitude general circulation is investigated. Changes in model behavior with increased spectral resolution are examined in detail. Qualitatively correct time-mean heat and momentum balances are achieved in a beta-plane channel model which includes the first and third meridional modes. This minimal resolution also reproduces qualitatively realistic surface and upper-level winds and mean meridional circulations. Higher meridional resolution does not result in substantial changes in the latitudinal structure of the circulation. A qualitatively correct kinetic energy spectrum is produced when the resolution is high enough to include several linearly stable modes. A model with three zonal waves and the first three meridional modes has a reasonable energy spectrum and energy conversion cycle, while also satisfying heat and momentum budget requirements. This truncation reproduces the basic mechanisms and zonal circulation features that are obtained at higher resolution. The model performance improves gradually with higher resolution and is smoothly dependent on changes in external parameters.

The decline of winter monsoon velocity in the South China Sea through the 20th century: Evidence from the Sr/Ca records in corals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Yajing; Peng, Z.; Chen, T.; Wei, G.; Sun, W.; Sun, R.; He, J.; Liu, Gaisheng; Chou, C.-L.; Zartman, R.E.

2008-01-01

A modern massive Porites coral was collected from the Longwan Bay (19??20???N, 110??39???E) on the east coast of the Hainan Island, China. The coral was sectioned vertical to the growth axis into discs of double density-bands representing annual growth. The samples were analyzed for the Sr/Ca ratio by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. The history of winter sea-surface temperature (SST) is reconstructed using the Sr/Ca ratio in winter bands of corals. The winter SST at Xisha in the middle of the South China Sea (SCS) is weakly correlated with the instrument-measured winter monsoon velocity (WMV) with a correlation coefficient of 0.19. The winter SST data from corals at Longwan Bay, Hainan, in the northern SCS are moderately correlated with the WMV (r = 0.40). Interestingly we found that the difference of winter SSTs between the two sites (Xisha and Longwan Bay, Hainan) (the X-H index) is significantly negatively correlated with the WMV (r = - 0.73). This negative correlation may be related to the intrusion of the warm Kuroshio Current into the SCS through the Luzon Strait promoted by the strong northeastern monsoon winds in the winter. Using the relationship between our coralline data and observed WMV, the calculated winter monsoon velocity (WMVc) was obtained for 87??years. This data set in combination with the instrument-measured data between 1993 and 1998 generate a record of WMVc for a period of 93??years from 1906 to 1998. The WMVc in the 20th century shows significant interannual and decadal variability with a trend of persistent decline in the whole 20th century at the rate of decrease of - 0.02 (m/s)/a. The lowest wind velocity occurred during the last two decades of the 20th century. The WMVc has decreased significantly by about 30% from the early to the late of 20th century. The 20th century decline of winter monsoon velocity evidenced from the SCS coral records is consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) simulations for monsoon response to increasing temperatures. In addition, an obvious decline shift of WMV around 1976 can be seen in both instrumental and proxy records and it coincides with many other Pacific records. This shift is likely to correspond to a Pacific-wide change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation occurring at the same time. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Library Circulation Systems -- An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Surace, Cecily J.

The model circulation system outlined is an on-line real time system in which the circulation file is created from the shelf list and the terminal inquiry system includes the capability to query and browse through the bibliographic system and the circulation subsystem together to determine the availability for circulation of specific documents, or…

Modeling bronchial circulation with application to soluble gas exchange: description and sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Bui, T D; Dabdub, D; George, S C

1998-06-01

The steady-state exchange of inert gases across an in situ canine trachea has recently been shown to be limited equally by diffusion and perfusion over a wide range (0.01-350) of blood solubilities (betablood; ml . ml-1 . atm-1). Hence, we hypothesize that the exchange of ethanol (betablood = 1,756 at 37 degrees C) in the airways depends on the blood flow rate from the bronchial circulation. To test this hypothesis, the dynamics of the bronchial circulation were incorporated into an existing model that describes the simultaneous exchange of heat, water, and a soluble gas in the airways. A detailed sensitivity analysis of key model parameters was performed by using the method of Latin hypercube sampling. The model accurately predicted a previously reported experimental exhalation profile of ethanol (R2 = 0.991) as well as the end-exhalation airstream temperature (34.6 degrees C). The model predicts that 27, 29, and 44% of exhaled ethanol in a single exhalation are derived from the tissues of the mucosa and submucosa, the bronchial circulation, and the tissue exterior to the submucosa (which would include the pulmonary circulation), respectively. Although the concentration of ethanol in the bronchial capillary decreased during inspiration, the three key model outputs (end-exhaled ethanol concentration, the slope of phase III, and end-exhaled temperature) were all statistically insensitive (P > 0.05) to the parameters describing the bronchial circulation. In contrast, the model outputs were all sensitive (P < 0.05) to the thickness of tissue separating the core body conditions from the bronchial smooth muscle. We conclude that both the bronchial circulation and the pulmonary circulation impact soluble gas exchange when the entire conducting airway tree is considered.

Understanding variability of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation in CORE-II models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downes, S. M.; Spence, P.; Hogg, A. M.

2018-03-01

The current generation of climate models exhibit a large spread in the steady-state and projected Southern Ocean upper and lower overturning circulation, with mechanisms for deep ocean variability remaining less well understood. Here, common Southern Ocean metrics in twelve models from the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) are assessed over a 60 year period. Specifically, stratification, surface buoyancy fluxes, and eddies are linked to the magnitude of the strengthening trend in the upper overturning circulation, and a decreasing trend in the lower overturning circulation across the CORE-II models. The models evolve similarly in the upper 1 km and the deep ocean, with an almost equivalent poleward intensification trend in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. However, the models differ substantially in their eddy parameterisation and surface buoyancy fluxes. In general, models with a larger heat-driven water mass transformation where deep waters upwell at the surface ( ∼ 55°S) transport warmer waters into intermediate depths, thus weakening the stratification in the upper 2 km. Models with a weak eddy induced overturning and a warm bias in the intermediate waters are more likely to exhibit larger increases in the upper overturning circulation, and more significant weakening of the lower overturning circulation. We find the opposite holds for a cool model bias in intermediate depths, combined with a more complex 3D eddy parameterisation that acts to reduce isopycnal slope. In summary, the Southern Ocean overturning circulation decadal trends in the coarse resolution CORE-II models are governed by biases in surface buoyancy fluxes and the ocean density field, and the configuration of the eddy parameterisation.

Diagnostics of severe convection and subsynoptic scale ageostrophic circulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Diagnostics of severe convection and subsynoptic scale ageostrophic circulations are reported. Mesoscale circulations through forcing of ageostrophic motion by adiabatic, diabatic and frictional processes were studied. The development and application of a hybrid isentropic sigma coordinate numerical model was examined. The numerical model simulates mesoscale ageostrophic circulations associated with propagating jet streaks and severe convection. A complete list of publications and these completed through support of the NASA severe storms research project is included.

Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Ocean Model Response to Hurricane Ivan (PREPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-18

analysis of upper-limb meridional overturning circulation interior ocean pathways in the tropical/subtropical Atlantic . In: Interhemispheric Water...diminishing returns are encountered when either resolution is increased. 3 1. Introduction Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models have become...northwest Caribbean Sea 4 and GOM. Evaluation is difficult because ocean general circulation models incorporate a large suite of numerical algorithms

Can increased poleward oceanic heat flux explain the warm Cretaceous climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

1996-10-01

The poleward transport of heat in the mid-Cretaceous (100 Ma) is examined using an idealized coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The oceanic component consists of two zonally averaged basins representing the proto-Pacific and proto-Indian oceans and models the dynamics of the meridional thermohaline circulation. The atmospheric component is a simple energy and moisture balance model which includes the diffusive meridional transport of sensible heat and moisture. The ocean model is spun up with a variety of plausible Cretaceous surface temperature and salinity profiles, and a consistent atmosphere is objectively derived based on the resultant sea surface temperature and the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. The coupled model does not exhibit climate drift. Multiple equilibria of the coupled model are found that break the initial symmetry of the ocean circulation; several of these equilibria have one-cell (northern or southern sinking) thermohaline circulation patterns. Two main classes of circulation are found: circulations where the densest water is relatively cool and is formed at the polar latitudes and circulations where the densest water is warm, but quite saline, and the strongest sinking occurs at the tropics. In all cases, significant amounts of warm, saline bottom water are formed in the proto-Indian basin which modify the deepwater characteristics in the larger (proto-Pacific) basin. Temperatures in the deep ocean are warm, 10°-17°C, in agreement with benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope data. The poleward transport of heat in the modeled Cretaceous oceans is larger than in some comparable models of the present day thermohaline circulation and significantly larger than estimates of similar processes in the present-day ocean. It is consistently larger in the polar sinking cases when compared with that seen in the tropical sinking cases, but this represents an increase of only 10%. The largest increase over present-day model transports is in the atmospheric latent heat transport, where an increased hydrological cycle (especially in the tropical sinking cases) contributes up to an extra 1 PW of poleward heat transport. Better constraints on the oceanic deepwater circulation during this period are necessary before the meridional circulation can be unambiguously described.

Numerical simulation of terrain-induced mesoscale circulation in the Chiang Mai area, Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathitkunarat, Surachai; Wongwises, Prungchan; Pan-Aram, Rudklao; Zhang, Meigen

2008-11-01

The regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) was applied to Chiang Mai province, a mountainous area in Thailand, to study terrain-induced mesoscale circulations. Eight cases in wet and dry seasons under different weather conditions were analyzed to show thermal and dynamic impacts on local circulations. This is the first study of RAMS in Thailand especially investigating the effect of mountainous area on the simulated meteorological data. Analysis of model results indicates that the model can reproduce major features of local circulation and diurnal variations in temperatures. For evaluating the model performance, model results were compared with observed wind speed, wind direction, and temperature monitored at a meteorological tower. Comparison shows that the modeled values are generally in good agreement with observations and that the model captured many of the observed features.

Correlations between the modelled potato crop yield and the general atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepp, Mait; Saue, Triin

2012-07-01

Biology-related indicators do not usually depend on just one meteorological element but on a combination of several weather indicators. One way to establish such integral indicators is to classify the general atmospheric circulation into a small number of circulation types. The aim of present study is to analyse connections between general atmospheric circulation and potato crop yield in Estonia. Meteorologically possible yield (MPY), calculated by the model POMOD, is used to characterise potato crop yield. Data of three meteorological stations and the biological parameters of two potato sorts were applied to the model, and 73 different classifications of atmospheric circulation from catalogue 1.2 of COST 733, domain 05 are used to qualify circulation conditions. Correlation analysis showed that there is at least one circulation type in each of the classifications with at least one statistically significant (99%) correlation with potato crop yield, whether in Kuressaare, Tallinn or Tartu. However, no classifications with circulation types correlating with MPY in all three stations at the same time were revealed. Circulation types inducing a decrease in the potato crop yield are more clearly represented. Clear differences occurred between the observed geographical locations as well as between the seasons: derived from the number of significant circulation types, summer and Kuressaare stand out. Of potato varieties, late 'Anti' is more influenced by circulation. Analysis of MSLP maps of circulation types revealed that the seaside stations (Tallinn, Kuressaare) suffer from negative effects of anti-cyclonic conditions (drought), while Tartu suffers from the cyclonic activity (excessive water).

On the Freshwater Sensitivity of the Arctic-Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, E.; Eldevik, T.; Haugan, P.

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) carries heat and salt toward the Arctic. This circulation is generally believed to be inhibited by northern freshwater input as indicated by the `box-model' of Stommel (1961). The inferred freshwater-sensitivity of the THC, however, varies considerably between studies, both quantitatively and qualitatively. The northernmost branch of the Atlantic THC, which forms a double estuarine circulation in the Arctic Mediterranean, is one example where both strengthening and weakening of the circulation may occur due to increased freshwater input. We have accordingly built on Stommel's original concept to accomodate a THC similar to that in the Arctic Mediterranean. This model consists of three idealized basins, or boxes, connected by two coupled branches of circulation - the double estuary. The net transport of these two branches represents the extension of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic. Its sensitivity to a change in freshwater forcing depends largely on the distribution of freshwater over the two northern basins. Varying this distribution opens a spectrum of qualitative behaviours ranging from Stommel's original freshwater-inhibited overturning circulation to a freshwater-facilitated estuarine circulation. Between these limiting cases, a Hopf and a cusp bifurcation divide the spectrum into three qualitative regions. In the first region, the circulation behaves similarly to Stommel's circulation, and sufficient freshwater input can induce an abrupt transition into a reversed flow; in the second, a similar transition can be found, although it does not reverse the circulation; in the third, no transition can occur and the circulation is generally facilitated by the northern freshwater input. Overall, the northern THC appears more stable than what would be inferred based on Stommel's model; it requires a larger amount and more localized freshwater input to `collapse' it, and a double estuary circulation is less prone to flow reversal.

Bond Graph Model of Cerebral Circulation: Toward Clinically Feasible Systemic Blood Flow Simulations.

PubMed

Safaei, Soroush; Blanco, Pablo J; Müller, Lucas O; Hellevik, Leif R; Hunter, Peter J

2018-01-01

We propose a detailed CellML model of the human cerebral circulation that runs faster than real time on a desktop computer and is designed for use in clinical settings when the speed of response is important. A lumped parameter mathematical model, which is based on a one-dimensional formulation of the flow of an incompressible fluid in distensible vessels, is constructed using a bond graph formulation to ensure mass conservation and energy conservation. The model includes arterial vessels with geometric and anatomical data based on the ADAN circulation model. The peripheral beds are represented by lumped parameter compartments. We compare the hemodynamics predicted by the bond graph formulation of the cerebral circulation with that given by a classical one-dimensional Navier-Stokes model working on top of the whole-body ADAN model. Outputs from the bond graph model, including the pressure and flow signatures and blood volumes, are compared with physiological data.

Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jézéquel, Aglaé; Cattiaux, Julien; Naveau, Philippe; Radanovics, Sabine; Ribes, Aurélien; Vautard, Robert; Vrac, Mathieu; Yiou, Pascal

2018-05-01

The influence of climate change on mid-latitudes atmospheric circulation is still very uncertain. The large internal variability makes it difficult to extract any statistically significant signal regarding the evolution of the circulation. Here we propose a methodology to calculate dynamical trends tailored to the circulation of specific days by computing the evolution of the distances between the circulation of the day of interest and the other days of the time series. We compute these dynamical trends for two case studies of the hottest days recorded in two different European regions (corresponding to the heat-waves of summer 2003 and 2010). We use the NCEP reanalysis dataset, an ensemble of CMIP5 models, and a large ensemble of a single model (CESM), in order to account for different sources of uncertainty. While we find a positive trend for most models for 2003, we cannot conclude for 2010 since the models disagree on the trend estimates.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

PubMed

van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

2017-07-01

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On Lagrangian residual currents with applications in south San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, Ralph T.; Casulli, Vincenzo

1982-01-01

The Lagrangian residual circulation has often been introduced as the sum of the Eulerian residual circulation and the Stokes' drift. Unfortunately, this definition of the Lagrangian residual circulation is conceptually incorrect because both the Eulerian residual circulation and the Stokes' drift are Eulerian variables. In this paper a classification of various residual variables are reviewed and properly defined. The Lagrangian residual circulation is then studied by means of a two-stage formulation of a computer model. The tidal circulation is first computed in a conventional Eulerian way, and then the Lagrangian residual circulation is determined by a method patterned after the method of markers and cells. To demonstrate properties of the Lagrangian residual circulation, application of this approach in South San Francisco Bay, California, is considered. With the aid of the model results, properties of the Eulerian and Lagrangian residual circulation are examined. It can be concluded that estimation of the Lagrangian residual circulation from Eulerian data may lead to unacceptable error, particularly in a tidal estuary where the tidal excursion is of the same order of magnitude as the length scale of the basin. A direction calculation of the Lagrangian residual circulation must be made and has been shown to be feasible.

Relations between winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

1995-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of atmospheric circulation are more reliable than GCM simulations of temperature and precipitation. In this study, temporal correlations between 700 hPa height anomalies simulated winter precipitation at eight locations in the conterminous United States are compared with corresponding correlations in observations. The objectives are to 1) characterize the relations between atmospheric circulation and winter precipitation simulated by the GFDL, GCM for selected locations in the conterminous USA, ii) determine whether these relations are similar to those found in observations of the actual climate system, and iii) determine if GFDL-simulated precipitation is forced by the same circulation patterns as in the real atmosphere. -from Authors

Tidal flushing and wind driven circulation of Ahe atoll lagoon (Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia) from in situ observations and numerical modelling.

PubMed

Dumas, F; Le Gendre, R; Thomas, Y; Andréfouët, S

2012-01-01

Hydrodynamic functioning and water circulation of the semi-closed deep lagoon of Ahe atoll (Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia) were investigated using 1 year of field data and a 3D hydrodynamical model. Tidal amplitude averaged less than 30 cm, but tide generated very strong currents (2 ms(-1)) in the pass, creating a jet-like circulation that partitioned the lagoon into three residual circulation cells. The pass entirely flushed excess water brought by waves-induced radiation stress. Circulation patterns were computed for climatological meteorological conditions and summarized with stream function and flushing time. Lagoon hydrodynamics and general overturning circulation was driven by wind. Renewal time was 250 days, whereas the e-flushing time yielded a lagoon-wide 80-days average. Tide-driven flush through the pass and wind-driven overturning circulation designate Ahe as a wind-driven, tidally and weakly wave-flushed deep lagoon. The 3D model allows studying pearl oyster larvae dispersal in both realistic and climatological conditions for aquaculture applications. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Idealised modelling of ocean circulation driven by conductive and hydrothermal fluxes at the seabed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Jowan M.; Morales Maqueda, Miguel A.; Polton, Jeff A.; Megann, Alex P.

2018-02-01

Geothermal heating is increasingly recognised as an important factor affecting ocean circulation, with modelling studies suggesting that this heat source could lead to first-order changes in the formation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water, as well as a significant warming effect in the abyssal ocean. Where it has been represented in numerical models, however, the geothermal heat flux into the ocean is generally treated as an entirely conductive flux, despite an estimated one third of the global geothermal flux being introduced to the ocean via hydrothermal sources. A modelling study is presented which investigates the sensitivity of the geothermally forced circulation to the way heat is supplied to the abyssal ocean. An analytical two-dimensional model of the circulation is described, which demonstrates the effects of a volume flux through the ocean bed. A simulation using the NEMO numerical general circulation model in an idealised domain is then used to partition a heat flux between conductive and hydrothermal sources and explicitly test the sensitivity of the circulation to the formulation of the abyssal heat flux. Our simulations suggest that representing the hydrothermal flux as a mass exchange indeed changes the heat distribution in the abyssal ocean, increasing the advective heat transport from the abyss by up to 35% compared to conductive heat sources. Consequently, we suggest that the inclusion of hydrothermal fluxes can be an important addition to course-resolution ocean models.

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, Bruce

1994-01-01

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Angular circulation speed of tablets in a vibratory tablet coating pan.

PubMed

Kumar, Rahul; Wassgren, Carl

2013-03-01

In this work, a single tablet model and a discrete element method (DEM) computer simulation are developed to obtain the angular circulation speed of tablets in a vibratory tablet coating pan for range of vibration frequencies and amplitudes. The models identify three important dimensionless parameters that influence the speed of the tablets: the dimensionless amplitude ratio (a/R), the Froude number (aω2/g), and the tablet-wall friction coefficient, where a is the peak vibration amplitude at the drum center, ω is the vibration angular frequency, R is the drum radius, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. The models predict that the angular circulation speed of tablets increases with an increase in each of these parameters. The rate of increase in the angular circulation speed is observed to decrease for larger values of a/R. The angular circulation speed reaches an asymptote beyond a tablet-wall friction coefficient value of about 0.4. Furthermore, it is found that the Froude number should be greater than one for the tablets to start circulating. The angular circulation speed increases as Froude number increases but then does not change significantly at larger values of the Froude number. Period doubling, where the motion of the bed is repeated every two cycles, occurs at a Froude number larger than five. The single tablet model, although much simpler than the DEM model, is able to predict the maximum circulation speed (the limiting case for a large value of tablet-wall friction coefficient) as well as the transition to period doubling.

Wind directions predicted from global circulation models and wind directions determined from eolian sandstones of the western United States-A comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Judith T.; Peterson, F.

1988-01-01

Wind directions for Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic time are predicted from global circulation models for the western United States. These predictions are compared with paleowind directions interpreted from eolian sandstones of Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic age. Predicted regional wind directions correspond with at least three-quarters of the paleowind data from the sandstones; the rest of the data may indicate problems with correlation, local effects of paleogeography on winds, and lack of resolution of the circulation models. The data and predictions suggest the following paleoclimatic developments through the time interval studied: predominance of winter subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Late Pennsylvanian; predominance of summer subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Permian; predominance of summer monsoonal circulation in the Triassic and earliest Jurassic; and, during the remainder of the Jurassic, influence of both summer subtropical and summer monsoonal circulation, with the boundary between the two systems over the western United States. This sequence of climatic changes is largely owing to paleogeographic changes, which influenced the buildup and breakdown of the monsoonal circulation, and possibly owing partly to a decrease in the global temperature gradient, which might have lessened the influence of the subtropical high-pressure circulation. The atypical humidity of Triassic time probably resulted from the monsoonal circulation created by the geography of Pangaea. This circulation is predicted to have been at a maximum in the Triassic and was likely to have been powerful enough to draw moisture along the equator from the ocean to the west. ?? 1988.

The Sensitivity of the Midlatitude Moist Isentropic Circulation on Both Sides of the Climate Model Hierarchy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fajber, R. A.; Kushner, P. J.; Laliberte, F. B.

2017-12-01

In the midlatitude atmosphere, baroclinic eddies are able to raise warm, moist air from the surface into the midtroposphere where it condenses and warms the atmosphere through latent heating. This coupling between dynamics and moist thermodynamics motivates using a conserved moist thermodynamic variable, such as the equivalent potential temperature, to study the midlatitude circulation and associated heat transport since it implicitly accounts for latent heating. When the equivalent potential temperature is used to zonally average the circulation, the moist isentropic circulation takes the form of a single cell in each hemisphere. By utilising the statistical transformed Eulerian mean (STEM) circulation we are able to parametrize the moist isentropic circulation in terms of second order dynamic and moist thermodynamic statistics. The functional dependence of the STEM allows us to analytically calculate functional derivatives that reveal the spatially varying sensitivity of the moist isentropic circulation to perturbations in different statistics. Using the STEM functional derivatives as sensitivity kernels we interpret changes in the moist isentropic circulation from two experiments: surface heating in an idealised moist model, and a climate change scenario in a comprehensive atmospheric general circulation model. In both cases we find that the changes in the moist isentropic circulation are well predicted by the functional sensitivities, and that the total heat transport is more sensitive to changes in dynamical processes driving local changes in poleward heat transport than it is to thermodynamic and/or radiative processes driving changes to the distribution of equivalent potential temperature.

Optimal control of CPR procedure using hemodynamic circulation model

DOEpatents

Lenhart, Suzanne M.; Protopopescu, Vladimir A.; Jung, Eunok

2007-12-25

A method for determining a chest pressure profile for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) includes the steps of representing a hemodynamic circulation model based on a plurality of difference equations for a patient, applying an optimal control (OC) algorithm to the circulation model, and determining a chest pressure profile. The chest pressure profile defines a timing pattern of externally applied pressure to a chest of the patient to maximize blood flow through the patient. A CPR device includes a chest compressor, a controller communicably connected to the chest compressor, and a computer communicably connected to the controller. The computer determines the chest pressure profile by applying an OC algorithm to a hemodynamic circulation model based on the plurality of difference equations.

Study of Circulation in the Tillamook Bay and the Surrounding Wetland Applying Triple-Nested Models Downscaling from Global Ocean to Estuary

EPA Science Inventory

To study the circulation and water quality in the Tillamook Bay, Oregon, a high-resolution estuarine model that covers the shallow bay and the surrounding wetland has been developed. The estuarine circulation at Tillamook Bay is mainly driven by the tides and the river flows and ...

The vertical distribution of nutrients and oxygen 18 in the upper Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

BjöRk, GöRan

1990-09-01

The observed vertical nutrient distribution including a maximum at about 100 m depth in the Arctic Ocean is investigated using a one-dimensional time-dependent circulation model together with a simple biological model. The circulation model includes a shelf-forced circulation. This is thought to take place in a box from which the outflow is specified regarding temperature and volume flux at different salinities. It has earlier been shown that the circulation model is able to reproduce the observed mean salinity and temperature stratification in the Arctic Ocean. Before introducing nutrients in the model a test is performed using the conservative tracer δ18 (18O/16O ratio) as one extra state variable in order to verify the circulation model. It is shown that the field measurements can be simulated. The result is, however, rather sensitive to the tracer concentration in the Bering Strait inflow. The nutrients nitrate, phosphate, and silicate are then treated by coupling a simple biological model to the circulation model. The biological model describes some overall effects of production, sinking, and decomposition of organic matter. First a standard case of the biological model is presented. This is followed by some modified cases. It is shown that the observed nutrient distribution including the maximum can be generated. The available nutrient data from the Arctic Ocean are not sufficient to decide which among the cases is the most likely to occur. One case is, however, chosen as the best case. A nutrient budget and estimates of the magnitudes of the new production are presented for this case.

Calibrating the ECCO ocean general circulation model using Green's functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menemenlis, D.; Fu, L. L.; Lee, T.; Fukumori, I.

2002-01-01

Green's functions provide a simple, yet effective, method to test and calibrate General-Circulation-Model(GCM) parameterizations, to study and quantify model and data errors, to correct model biases and trends, and to blend estimates from different solutions and data products.

Impact of GODAE Products on Nested HYCOM Simulations of the West Florida Shelf

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-20

circulation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation . For temperature, the non-assimilative outer model had a cold...associated with the basin-scale wind-driven gyres and with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is incor- rectly represented. In contrast...not contain realistic LC transport variability associated with the wind-driven gyre circulation and the Atlantic Meridio- nal Overturning Circulation

A theoretical model of the variation of the meridional circulation with the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Gopal; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

2017-12-01

Observations of the meridional circulation of the Sun, which plays a key role in the operation of the solar dynamo, indicate that its speed varies with the solar cycle, becoming faster during the solar minima and slower during the solar maxima. To explain this variation of the meridional circulation with the solar cycle, we construct a theoretical model by coupling the equation of the meridional circulation (the ϕ component of the vorticity equation within the solar convection zone) with the equations of the flux transport dynamo model. We consider the back reaction due to the Lorentz force of the dynamo-generated magnetic fields and study the perturbations produced in the meridional circulation due to it. This enables us to model the variations of the meridional circulation without developing a full theory of the meridional circulation itself. We obtain results which reproduce the observational data of solar cycle variations of the meridional circulation reasonably well. We get the best results on assuming the turbulent viscosity acting on the velocity field to be comparable to the magnetic diffusivity (i.e. on assuming the magnetic Prandtl number to be close to unity). We have to assume an appropriate bottom boundary condition to ensure that the Lorentz force cannot drive a flow in the subadiabatic layers below the bottom of the tachocline. Our results are sensitive to this bottom boundary condition. We also suggest a hypothesis on how the observed inward flow towards the active regions may be produced.

Assessing the adaptive capacity of maize hybrids to climate change in an irrigated district of Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaco, Eugenia; Bonfante, Antonello; De Mascellis, Roberto; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Menenti, Massimo; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

Climate change will cause significant changes in water distribution and availability; as a consequence the water resources in some areas (like Mediterranean regions) will be limiting factors to the cultivation of some species, included cereals. So the perspective of climate change requires an analysis of the adaptation possibilities of food and fiber species currently cultivated. A powerful tool for adaptation is the relevant intra-specific biodiversity of crops. The knowledge, for different crop cultivars, of the responses to different environmental conditions (e.g. yield response functions to water regime) can be a tool to identify adaptation options to future climate. Moreover, simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system can be coupled with future climate scenarios to predict the soil water regime also accounting for different irrigation scheduling options. In this work the adaptive capacity of maize hybrids (Zea mays L.) was evaluated in an irrigated district of Southern Italy (the "Destra Sele" plain, an area of about 18.000 ha), where maize is extensively grown for water buffalo feeding. Horticultural crops (tomato, fennel, artichoke) are grown, as well. The methodology applied is based on two complementary elements: - a database on climatic requirements of 30 maize hybrids: the yield response functions to water availability were determined from experimental data derived both from scientific literature and from field trials carried out by ISAFOM-CNR. These functions were applied to describe the behaviour of the hybrids with respect to the relative evapotranspiration deficit; - the simulation performed by the agro-hydrological model SWAP (soil-water-plant and atmosphere), to determine the future soil water regime at landscape scale. Two climate scenarios were studied: "past" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). Future climate scenarios were generated within the Italian National Project AGROSCENARI. Climate scenarios at low spatial resolution generated with general circulation models (AOGCMs) were down-scaled by means of a statistical model (Tomozeiu et al., 2007). The downscaled climate scenario includes 50 realizations of daily minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation data, on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. The hydraulic properties of 25 representative soils of the "Destra Sele" area were estimated with HYPRES pedo-transfer function previously tested in the area. The model SWAP was run to determine the soil water balance with different irrigation strategies: optimal irrigation, no irrigation, and deficit irrigation, in both climate periods. Deficit irrigation was scheduled applying water volumes equal to 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% of optimal ones. From the outputs of the model runs the relative evapotranspiration deficit (or Crop Water Stress Index - CWSI) was calculated and compared with the yield response functions of the hybrids. By means of these functions, for each hybrid a critical value of CWSI was identified, namely a CWSI value corresponding to a relative yield of 0.9. By comparing the CWSI of soil units with hybrid's critical values, cultivar's adaptability to future water regime was determined, both as a function of irrigation scheduling and of soils' physical properties. The case study shows how, in the future climate scenario, with limited water resources, the intra-specific variability will allow to maintain current crop production system. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Methods of testing parameterizations: Vertical ocean mixing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tziperman, Eli

1992-01-01

The ocean's velocity field is characterized by an exceptional variety of scales. While the small-scale oceanic turbulence responsible for the vertical mixing in the ocean is of scales a few centimeters and smaller, the oceanic general circulation is characterized by horizontal scales of thousands of kilometers. In oceanic general circulation models that are typically run today, the vertical structure of the ocean is represented by a few tens of discrete grid points. Such models cannot explicitly model the small-scale mixing processes, and must, therefore, find ways to parameterize them in terms of the larger-scale fields. Finding a parameterization that is both reliable and plausible to use in ocean models is not a simple task. Vertical mixing in the ocean is the combined result of many complex processes, and, in fact, mixing is one of the less known and less understood aspects of the oceanic circulation. In present models of the oceanic circulation, the many complex processes responsible for vertical mixing are often parameterized in an oversimplified manner. Yet, finding an adequate parameterization of vertical ocean mixing is crucial to the successful application of ocean models to climate studies. The results of general circulation models for quantities that are of particular interest to climate studies, such as the meridional heat flux carried by the ocean, are quite sensitive to the strength of the vertical mixing. We try to examine the difficulties in choosing an appropriate vertical mixing parameterization, and the methods that are available for validating different parameterizations by comparing model results to oceanographic data. First, some of the physical processes responsible for vertically mixing the ocean are briefly mentioned, and some possible approaches to the parameterization of these processes in oceanographic general circulation models are described in the following section. We then discuss the role of the vertical mixing in the physics of the large-scale ocean circulation, and examine methods of validating mixing parameterizations using large-scale ocean models.

Accelerated Edge-Preserving Image Restoration Without Boundary Artifacts

PubMed Central

Matakos, Antonios; Ramani, Sathish; Fessler, Jeffrey A.

2013-01-01

To reduce blur in noisy images, regularized image restoration methods have been proposed that use non-quadratic regularizers (like l1 regularization or total-variation) that suppress noise while preserving edges in the image. Most of these methods assume a circulant blur (periodic convolution with a blurring kernel) that can lead to wraparound artifacts along the boundaries of the image due to the implied periodicity of the circulant model. Using a non-circulant model could prevent these artifacts at the cost of increased computational complexity. In this work we propose to use a circulant blur model combined with a masking operator that prevents wraparound artifacts. The resulting model is non-circulant, so we propose an efficient algorithm using variable splitting and augmented Lagrangian (AL) strategies. Our variable splitting scheme, when combined with the AL framework and alternating minimization, leads to simple linear systems that can be solved non-iteratively using FFTs, eliminating the need for more expensive CG-type solvers. The proposed method can also efficiently tackle a variety of convex regularizers including edge-preserving (e.g., total-variation) and sparsity promoting (e.g., l1 norm) regularizers. Simulation results show fast convergence of the proposed method, along with improved image quality at the boundaries where the circulant model is inaccurate. PMID:23372080

The East Asian Atmospheric Water Cycle and Monsoon Circulation in the Met Office Unified Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, José M.; Milton, Sean F.; Marzin, Charline

2017-10-01

In this study the low-level monsoon circulation and observed sources of moisture responsible for the maintenance and seasonal evolution of the East Asian monsoon are examined, studying the detailed water budget components. These observational estimates are contrasted with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulation performance in capturing the circulation and water cycle at a variety of model horizontal resolutions and in fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. We study the role of large-scale circulation in determining the hydrological cycle by analyzing key systematic errors in the model simulations. MetUM climate simulations exhibit robust circulation errors, including a weakening of the summer west Pacific Subtropical High, which leads to an underestimation of the southwesterly monsoon flow over the region. Precipitation and implied diabatic heating biases in the South Asian monsoon and Maritime Continent region are shown, via nudging sensitivity experiments, to have an impact on the East Asian monsoon circulation. By inference, the improvement of these tropical biases with increased model horizontal resolution is hypothesized to be a factor in improvements seen over East Asia with increased resolution. Results from the annual cycle of the hydrological budget components in five domains show a good agreement between MetUM simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis in northern and Tibetan domains. In simulations, the contribution from moisture convergence is larger than in reanalysis, and they display less precipitation recycling over land. The errors are closely linked to monsoon circulation biases.

Bond Graph Model of Cerebral Circulation: Toward Clinically Feasible Systemic Blood Flow Simulations

PubMed Central

Safaei, Soroush; Blanco, Pablo J.; Müller, Lucas O.; Hellevik, Leif R.; Hunter, Peter J.

2018-01-01

We propose a detailed CellML model of the human cerebral circulation that runs faster than real time on a desktop computer and is designed for use in clinical settings when the speed of response is important. A lumped parameter mathematical model, which is based on a one-dimensional formulation of the flow of an incompressible fluid in distensible vessels, is constructed using a bond graph formulation to ensure mass conservation and energy conservation. The model includes arterial vessels with geometric and anatomical data based on the ADAN circulation model. The peripheral beds are represented by lumped parameter compartments. We compare the hemodynamics predicted by the bond graph formulation of the cerebral circulation with that given by a classical one-dimensional Navier-Stokes model working on top of the whole-body ADAN model. Outputs from the bond graph model, including the pressure and flow signatures and blood volumes, are compared with physiological data. PMID:29551979

Climate model biases in jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic drag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pithan, Felix; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Zappa, Giuseppe; Sandu, Irina

2016-07-01

State-of-the art climate models generally struggle to represent important features of the large-scale circulation. Common model deficiencies include an equatorward bias in the location of the midlatitude westerlies and an overly zonal orientation of the North Atlantic storm track. Orography is known to strongly affect the atmospheric circulation and is notoriously difficult to represent in coarse-resolution climate models. Yet how the representation of orography affects circulation biases in current climate models is not understood. Here we show that the effects of switching off the parameterization of drag from low-level orographic blocking in one climate model resemble the biases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble: An overly zonal wintertime North Atlantic storm track and less European blocking events, and an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemispheric jet and increase in the Southern Annular Mode time scale. This suggests that typical circulation biases in coarse-resolution climate models may be alleviated by improved parameterizations of low-level drag.

Modeling of circulating fluised beds for post-combustion carbon capture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, A.; Shadle, L.; Miller, D.

2011-01-01

A compartment based model for a circulating fluidized bed reactor has been developed based on experimental observations of riser hydrodynamics. The model uses a cluster based approach to describe the two-phase behavior of circulating fluidized beds. Fundamental mass balance equations have been derived to describe the movement of both gas and solids though the system. Additional work is being performed to develop the correlations required to describe the hydrodynamics of the system. Initial testing of the model with experimental data shows promising results and highlights the importance of including end effects within the model.

Stochastic simulation of human pulmonary blood flow and transit time frequency distribution based on anatomic and elasticity data.

PubMed

Huang, Wei; Shi, Jun; Yen, R T

2012-12-01

The objective of our study was to develop a computing program for computing the transit time frequency distributions of red blood cell in human pulmonary circulation, based on our anatomic and elasticity data of blood vessels in human lung. A stochastic simulation model was introduced to simulate blood flow in human pulmonary circulation. In the stochastic simulation model, the connectivity data of pulmonary blood vessels in human lung was converted into a probability matrix. Based on this model, the transit time of red blood cell in human pulmonary circulation and the output blood pressure were studied. Additionally, the stochastic simulation model can be used to predict the changes of blood flow in human pulmonary circulation with the advantage of the lower computing cost and the higher flexibility. In conclusion, a stochastic simulation approach was introduced to simulate the blood flow in the hierarchical structure of a pulmonary circulation system, and to calculate the transit time distributions and the blood pressure outputs.

Correcting Borehole Temperture Profiles for the Effects of Postglacial Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rath, V.; Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F.

2010-09-01

Though the investigation of observed borehole temperatures has proved to be a valuable tool for the reconstruction of ground surface temperature histories, there are many open questions concerning the signifcance and accuracy of the reconstructions from these data. In particular, the temperature signal of the warming after the Last glacial Maximum (LGM) is still present in borehole temperature proiles. It also influences the relatively shallow boreholes used in current paleoclimate inversions to estimate temperature changes in the last centuries. This is shown using Monte Carlo experiments on past surface temperature change, using plausible distributions for the most important parameters, i.e.,amplitude and timing of the glacial-interglacial transition, the prior average temperature, and petrophysical properties. It has been argued that the signature of the last glacial-interglacial transition could be responsible for the high amplitudes of millennial temperature reconstructions. However, in shallow boreholes the additional effect of past climate can reasonably approximated by a linear variation of temperature with depth, and thus be accommodated by a "biased" background heat flow. This is good news for borehole climatology. A simple correction based on subtracting an appropriate prior surface temperature history shows promising results reducing these errors considerably, in particular with deeper boreholes, where the warming signal in heat flow can no longer be approximated linearly. We will show examples from North America and Eurasia, comparing temperatures reduced the proposed algoritm with AOGCM modeling results.

South Atlantic Ocean circulation: Simulation experiments with a quasi-geostrophic model and assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS 1 altimeter data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florenchie, P.; Verron, J.

1998-10-01

Simulation experiments of South Atlantic Ocean circulations are conducted with a 1/6°, four-layered, quasi-geostrophic model. By means of a simple nudging data assimilation procedure along satellite tracks, TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS 1 altimeter measurements are introduced into the model to control the simulation of the basin-scale circulation for the period from October 1992 to September 1994. The model circulation appears to be strongly influenced by the introduction of altimeter data, offering a consistent picture of South Atlantic Ocean circulations. Comparisons with observations show that the assimilating model successfully simulates the kinematic behavior of a large number of surface circulation components. The assimilation procedure enables us to produce schematic diagrams of South Atlantic circulation in which patterns ranging from basin-scale currents to mesoscale eddies are portrayed in a realistic way, with respect to their complexity. The major features of the South Atlantic circulation are described and analyzed, with special emphasis on the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence region, the Subtropical Gyre with the formation of frontal structures, and the Agulhas Retroflection. The Agulhas eddy-shedding process has been studied extensively. Fourteen eddies appear to be shed during the 2-year experiment. Because of their strong surface topographic signature, Agulhas eddies have been tracked continuously during the assimilation experiment as they cross the South Atlantic basin westward. Other effects of the assimilation procedure are shown, such as the intensification of the Subtropical Gyre, the appearance of a strong seasonal cycle in the Brazil Current transport, and the increase of the mean Brazil Current transport. This last result, combined with the westward oriention of the Agulhas eddies' trajectories, leads to a southward transport of mean eddy kinetic energy across 30°S.

Development of a hydraulic model of the human systemic circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharp, M. K.; Dharmalingham, R. K.

1999-01-01

Physical and numeric models of the human circulation are constructed for a number of objectives, including studies and training in physiologic control, interpretation of clinical observations, and testing of prosthetic cardiovascular devices. For many of these purposes it is important to quantitatively validate the dynamic response of the models in terms of the input impedance (Z = oscillatory pressure/oscillatory flow). To address this need, the authors developed an improved physical model. Using a computer study, the authors first identified the configuration of lumped parameter elements in a model of the systemic circulation; the result was a good match with human aortic input impedance with a minimum number of elements. Design, construction, and testing of a hydraulic model analogous to the computer model followed. Numeric results showed that a three element model with two resistors and one compliance produced reasonable matching without undue complication. The subsequent analogous hydraulic model included adjustable resistors incorporating a sliding plate to vary the flow area through a porous material and an adjustable compliance consisting of a variable-volume air chamber. The response of the hydraulic model compared favorably with other circulation models.

The dynamics of the Snowball Earth Hadley circulation for off-equatorial and seasonally varying insolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2013-11-01

I study the Hadley circulation of a completely ice-covered Snowball Earth through simulations with a comprehensive atmosphere general circulation model. Because the Snowball Earth atmosphere is an example of a dry atmosphere, these simulations allow me to test to what extent dry theories and idealized models capture the dynamics of realistic dry Hadley circulations. Perpetual off-equatorial as well as seasonally varying insolation is used, extending a previous study for perpetual on-equatorial (equinox) insolation. Vertical diffusion of momentum, representing the momentum transport of dry convection, is fundamental to the momentum budgets of both the winter and summer cells. In the zonal budget, it is the primary process balancing the Coriolis force. In the meridional budget, it mixes meridional momentum between the upper and the lower branch and thereby decelerates the circulation. Because of the latter, the circulation intensifies by a factor of three when vertical diffusion of momentum is suppressed. For seasonally varying insolation, the circulation undergoes rapid transitions from the weak summer into the strong winter regime. Consistent with previous studies in idealized models, these transitions result from a mean-flow feedback, because of which they are insensitive to the treatment of vertical diffusion of momentum. Overall, the results corroborate previous findings for perpetual on-equatorial insolation. They demonstrate that descriptions of realistic dry Hadley circulations, in particular their strength, need to incorporate the vertical momentum transport by dry convection, a process that is neglected in most dry theories and idealized models. An improved estimate of the strength of the Snowball Earth Hadley circulation will also help to better constrain the climate of a possible Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth and its deglaciation threshold.

The dynamics of the Snowball Earth Hadley circulation for off-equatorial and seasonally-varying insolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2013-08-01

I study the Hadley circulation of a completely ice-covered Snowball Earth through simulations with a comprehensive atmosphere general circulation model. Because the Snowball Earth atmosphere is an example of a dry atmosphere, these simulations allow me to test to what extent dry theories and idealized models capture the dynamics of dry Hadley circulations. Perpetual off-equatorial as well as seasonally-varying insolation is used, extending a previous study for perpetual on-equatorial (equinox) insolation. Vertical diffusion of momentum, representing the momentum transport of dry convection, is fundamental to the momentum budgets of both the winter and summer cells. In the zonal budget, it is the primary process balancing the Coriolis force. In the meridional budget, it mixes meridional momentum between the upper and the lower branch and thereby decelerates the circulation. Because of the latter, the circulation intensifies by a factor of three when vertical diffusion of momentum is suppressed. For seasonally-varying insolation, the circulation undergoes rapid transitions from the weak summer into the strong winter regime. Consistent with previous studies in idealized models, these transitions result from a mean-flow feedback, because of which they are insensitive to the treatment of vertical diffusion of momentum. Overall, the results corroborate previous findings for perpetual on-equatorial insolation. They demonstrate that an appropriate description of dry Hadley circulations, in particular their strength, needs to incorporate the vertical momentum transport by dry convection, a process that is neglected in most dry theories and idealized models. An improved estimate of the strength of the Snowball Earth Hadley circulation will also help to better constrain the climate of a possible Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth and its deglaciation threshold.

An Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) investigation of the Red Sea circulation: 2. Three-dimensional circulation in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, Sarantis S.; Johns, William E.

2003-03-01

The three-dimensional circulation of the Red Sea is studied using a set of Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) simulations. The model performance is tested against the few available observations in the basin and shows generally good agreement with the main observed features of the circulation. The main findings of this analysis include an intensification of the along-axis flow toward the coasts, with a transition from western intensified boundary flow in the south to eastern intensified flow in the north, and a series of strong seasonal or permanent eddy-like features. Model experiments conducted with different forcing fields (wind-stress forcing only, surface buoyancy forcing only, or both forcings combined) showed that the circulation produced by the buoyancy forcing is stronger overall and dominates the wind-driven part of the circulation. The main circulation pattern is related to the seasonal buoyancy flux (mostly due to the evaporation), which causes the density to increase northward in the basin and produces a northward surface pressure gradient associated with the downward sloping of the sea surface. The response of the eastern boundary to the associated mean cross-basin geostrophic current depends on the stratification and β-effect. In the northern part of the basin this results in an eastward intensification of the northward surface flow associated with the presence of Kelvin waves while in the south the traditional westward intensification due to Rossby waves takes place. The most prominent gyre circulation pattern occurs in the north where a permanent cyclonic gyre is present that is involved in the formation of Red Sea Outflow Water (RSOW). Beneath the surface boundary currents are similarly intensified southward undercurrents that carry the RSOW to the sill to flow out of the basin into the Indian Ocean.

Parameterizing Gravity Waves and Understanding Their Impacts on Venus' Upper Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brecht, A. S.; Bougher, S. W.; Yigit, Erdal

2018-01-01

The complexity of Venus’ upper atmospheric circulation is still being investigated. Simulations of Venus’ upper atmosphere largely depend on the utility of Rayleigh Friction (RF) as a driver and necessary process to reproduce observations (i.e. temperature, density, nightglow emission). Currently, there are additional observations which provide more constraints to help characterize the driver(s) of the circulation. This work will largely focus on the impact parameterized gravity waves have on Venus’ upper atmosphere circulation within a three dimensional hydrodynamic model (Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model).

Impact of moisture variations on the circulation of the south-west monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.; Narayanan, M. S.; Manna, S. K.; Sharma, O. P.; Agarwal, Sangeeta; Upadhyaya, H. C.

1993-12-01

The impact of moisture anomalies on the circulation of the south-west Indian monsoon has been studied with a general circulation model. Newtonian relaxation is adopted to subject the model atmosphere under sustained moisture anomalies. The impact of negative anomalies of moisture was seen as a divergent circulation anomaly, while the positive anomaly was a stronger convergent anomaly. Although the humidity fields display a resilient behaviour, and relax back to normal patterns 1-2 days after the forcing terms in humidity are withdrawn, the circulation anomalies created by the moisture variation keeps growing. A feedback between positive moisture anomalies and low level convergence exists, which is terminated in the absence of external forcings.

Numerical simulation of the circulation of the atmosphere of Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hourdin, F.; Levan, P.; Talagrand, O.; Courtin, Regis; Gautier, Daniel; Mckay, Christopher P.

1992-01-01

A three dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) of Titan's atmosphere is described. Initial results obtained with an economical two dimensional (2D) axisymmetric version of the model presented a strong superrotation in the upper stratosphere. Because of this result, a more general numerical study of superrotation was started with a somewhat different version of the GCM. It appears that for a slowly rotating planet which strongly absorbs solar radiation, circulation is dominated by global equator to pole Hadley circulation and strong superrotation. The theoretical study of this superrotation is discussed. It is also shown that 2D simulations systemically lead to instabilities which make 2D models poorly adapted to numerical simulation of Titan's (or Venus) atmosphere.

Temperature field study of hot water circulation pump shaft system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y. Y.; Kong, F. Y.; Daun, X. H.; Zhao, R. J.; Hu, Q. L.

2016-05-01

In the process of engineering application under the condition of hot water circulation pump, problems of stress concentration caused by the temperature rise may happen. In order to study the temperature field in bearing and electric motor chamber of the hot water circulation pump and optimize the structure, in present paper, the model of the shaft system is created through CREO. The model is analyzed by ANSYS workbench, in which the thermal boundary conditions are applied to calculate, which include the calorific values from the bearings, the thermal loss from electric motor and the temperature from the transporting medium. From the result, the finite element model can reflect the distribution of thermal field in hot water circulation pump. Further, the results show that the maximum temperature locates in the bearing chamber.The theoretical guidance for the electric motor heat dissipation design of the hot water circulation pump can be achieved.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model for Long-Circulating Inorganic Nanoparticles.

PubMed

Liang, Xiaowen; Wang, Haolu; Grice, Jeffrey E; Li, Li; Liu, Xin; Xu, Zhi Ping; Roberts, Michael S

2016-02-10

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model was developed for accurately characterizing and predicting the in vivo fate of long-circulating inorganic nanoparticles (NPs). This model is built based on direct visualization of NP disposition details at the organ and cellular level. It was validated with multiple data sets, indicating robust inter-route and interspecies predictive capability. We suggest that the biodistribution of long-circulating inorganic NPs is determined by the uptake and release of NPs by phagocytic cells in target organs.

A Wind Tunnel Model to Explore Unsteady Circulation Control for General Aviation Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cagle, Christopher M.; Jones, Gregory S.

2002-01-01

Circulation Control airfoils have been demonstrated to provide substantial improvements in lift over conventional airfoils. The General Aviation Circular Control model is an attempt to address some of the concerns of this technique. The primary focus is to substantially reduce the amount of air mass flow by implementing unsteady flow. This paper describes a wind tunnel model that implements unsteady circulation control by pulsing internal pneumatic valves and details some preliminary results from the first test entry.

Empirical justification of the elementary model of money circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schinckus, Christophe; Altukhov, Yurii A.; Pokrovskii, Vladimir N.

2018-03-01

This paper proposes an elementary model describing the money circulation for a system, composed by a production system, the government, a central bank, commercial banks and their customers. A set of equations for the system determines the main features of interaction between the production and the money circulation. It is shown, that the money system can evolve independently of the evolution of production. The model can be applied to any national economy but we will illustrate our claim in the context of the Russian monetary system.

Impact of Data Assimilation And Resolution On Modeling The Gulf Stream Pathway

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-18

currents could be generated by either the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) associated with the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) or by...abyssal gyre centered directly beneath the surface gyre. Figure 7. Meridional overturning circulation stream function for four 1/12° global HYCOM... circulation and have a weak overturning circulation . The Gulf Stream path is poorly simulated without the steering by the abyssal circulation . A

The Pattern and Dynamics of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Upper Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

Atlantic . Figure 4a shows that the center of meridional overturning circulation occurs at a level of about one kilometer. Circulation is weak at...maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. 5. Global Simulation The most exciting experiment would be to fully model the...mechanisms responsible for the strength and maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean are not

Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

A modeling study on the hydrodynamics of a coastal embayment occupied by mussel farms (Ria de Ares-Betanzos, NW Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, Pedro; Alvarez-Salgado, Xosé Antón; Fernández-Reiriz, Maria José; Piedracoba, Silvia; Labarta, Uxío

2014-06-01

The present study suggests that both under upwelling and downwelling winds, the residual circulation of Ria de Ares-Betanzos remains positive with a strong influence from river discharge and a positive feedback from wind, unlike what is generally accepted for Galician rias. Furthermore, mussel cultivation areas may reduce residual velocities by almost 40%, suggesting their potential feedbacks on food replenishment for cultivated mussels. The Ria de Ares-Betanzos is a partially stratified estuary in the NW Iberian upwelling system where blue mussels are extensively cultured on hanging ropes. This type of culture depends to a large extent on water circulation and residence times, since mussels feed on suspended particles. Therefore, understanding the role of tides, continental runoff, and winds on the circulation of this embayment has important practical applications. Furthermore, previous works have emphasized the potential importance of aquaculture leases on water circulation within coastal ecosystems, with potential negative feedbacks on production carrying capacity. Here we implemented and validated a 3D hydrodynamic numerical model for the Ria de Ares-Betanzos to (i) evaluate the relative importance of the forcing agents on the circulation within the ria and (ii) estimate the importance of culture leases on circulation patterns at the scale of the mussel farms from model simulations. The model was successfully validated with empirical current velocity data collected during July and October 2007 using an assortment of efficiency criteria. Model simulations were carried out to isolate the effects of wind and river flows on circulation patterns.

Clarifying the Dynamics of the General Circulation: Phillips's 1956 Experiment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, John M.

1998-01-01

In the mid-1950s, amid heated debate over the physical mechanisms that controlled the known features of the atmosphere's general circulation, Norman Phillips simulated hemispheric motion on the high-speed computer at the Institute for Advanced Study. A simple energetically consistent model was integrated for a simulated time of approximately 1 month. Analysis of the model results clarified the respective roles of the synoptic-scale eddies (cyclones-anticyclones) and mean meridional circulation in the maintenance of the upper-level westerlies and the surface wind regimes. Furthermore, the modeled cyclones clearly linked surface frontogenesis with the upper-level Charney-Eady wave. In addition to discussing the model results in light of the controversy and ferment that surrounded general circulation theory in the 1940s-1950s, an effort is made to follow Phillips's scientific path to the experiment.

Large-Scale Transport Responses to Tropospheric Circulation Changes Using GEOS-5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orbe, Clara; Molod, Andrea; Arnold, Nathan; Waugh, Darryn W.; Yang, Huang

2017-01-01

The mean age since air was last at the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude surface is a fundamental property of tropospheric transport. Recent comparisons among chemistry climate models, however, reveal that there are large differences in the mean age among models and that these differences are most likely related to differences in tropical (parameterized) convection. Here we use aquaplanet simulations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5) to explore the sensitivity of the mean age to changes in the tropical circulation. Tropical circulation changes are forced by prescribed localized off-equatorial warm sea surface temperature anomalies that (qualitatively) reproduce the convection and circulation differences among the comprehensive models. Idealized chemical species subject to prescribed OH loss are also integrated in parallel in order to illustrate the impact of tropical transport changes on interhemispheric constituent transport.

Thrust Removal Scheme for the FAST-MAC Circulation Control Model Tested in the National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, David T.; Milholen, William E., II; Jones, Gregory S.; Goodliff, Scott L.

2014-01-01

A second wind tunnel test of the FAST-MAC circulation control semi-span model was recently completed in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The model allowed independent control of four circulation control plenums producing a high momentum jet from a blowing slot near the wing trailing edge that was directed over a 15% chord simple-hinged flap. The model was configured for transonic testing of the cruise configuration with 0deg flap deflection to determine the potential for drag reduction with the circulation control blowing. Encouraging results from analysis of wing surface pressures suggested that the circulation control blowing was effective in reducing the transonic drag on the configuration, however this could not be quantified until the thrust generated by the blowing slot was correctly removed from the force and moment balance data. This paper will present the thrust removal methodology used for the FAST-MAC circulation control model and describe the experimental measurements and techniques used to develop the methodology. A discussion on the impact to the force and moment data as a result of removing the thrust from the blowing slot will also be presented for the cruise configuration, where at some Mach and Reynolds number conditions, the thrust-removed corrected data showed that a drag reduction was realized as a consequence of the blowing.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Robinson, Allan R.; Haley, Patrick J.; Leslie, Wayne G.; Lozano, Carlos J.; Bisagni, James J.; Yu, Zhitao

2003-03-01

The multiscale synoptic circulation system in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank (GOMGB) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or 'features', are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the buoyancy-driven Maine Coastal Current, the Georges Bank anticyclonic frontal circulation system, the basin-scale cyclonic gyres (Jordan, Georges and Wilkinson), the deep inflow through the Northeast Channel (NEC), the shallow outflow via the Great South Channel (GSC), and the shelf-slope front (SSF). Their synoptic water-mass ( T- S) structures are characterized and parameterized in a generalized formulation to develop temperature-salinity feature models. A synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in the coastal-to-deep region of the GOMGB system is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and then objectively analyzed with appropriate background climatology in the coastal region. Furthermore, these fields are melded with adjacent deep-ocean regional circulation (Gulf Stream Meander and Ring region) along and across the SSF. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the primitive equation model. Simulation results are analyzed to calibrate the multiparameter feature-oriented modeling system. Experimental short-term synoptic simulations are presented for multiple resolutions in different regions with and without atmospheric forcing. The presented 'generic and portable' methodology demonstrates the potential of applying similar FORMS in many other regions of the Global Coastal Ocean.

Research on Parallel Three Phase PWM Converters base on RTDS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Yan; Zou, Jianxiao; Li, Kai; Liu, Jingbo; Tian, Jun

2018-01-01

Converters parallel operation can increase capacity of the system, but it may lead to potential zero-sequence circulating current, so the control of circulating current was an important goal in the design of parallel inverters. In this paper, the Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) is used to model the converters parallel system in real time and study the circulating current restraining. The equivalent model of two parallel converters and zero-sequence circulating current(ZSCC) were established and analyzed, then a strategy using variable zero vector control was proposed to suppress the circulating current. For two parallel modular converters, hardware-in-the-loop(HIL) study based on RTDS and practical experiment were implemented, results prove that the proposed control strategy is feasible and effective.

Exploring the Impact of Students' Learning Approach on Collaborative Group Modeling of Blood Circulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Shinyoung; Kang, Eunhee; Kim, Heui-Baik

2015-01-01

This study aimed to explore the effect on group dynamics of statements associated with deep learning approaches (DLA) and their contribution to cognitive collaboration and model development during group modeling of blood circulation. A group was selected for an in-depth analysis of collaborative group modeling. This group constructed a model in a…

A MODEL FOR FINE PARTICLE AGGLOMERATION IN CIRCULATING FLUIDIZED BED ABSORBERS

EPA Science Inventory

A model for fine particle agglomeration in circulating fluidized bed absorbers (CFBAS) has been developed. It can model the influence of different factors on agglomeration, such as the geometry of CFBAs, superficial gas velocity, initial particle size distribution, and type of ag...

Assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Data into a Global Ocean Circulation Model: Are the Results Any Good?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, I.; Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

1998-01-01

The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/POSEIDON data is analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model.

The influence of the tropics upon the prediction of the Southern Hemisphere circulation within the GLAS GCM. [Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Paegle, J.

1983-01-01

An examination is undertaken of the sensitivity of short term Southern Hemisphere circulation prediction to tropical wind data and tropical latent heat release. The data assimilation experiments employ the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences' fourth-order general circulation model. Two of the experiments are identical, but for the fact that one uses tropical wind data while the other does not. A third experiment contains the identical initial conditions of forecasts with tropical winds, while suppressing tropical latent heat release.

Field estimates of groundwater circulation depths in two mountainous watersheds in the western U.S. and the effect of deep circulation on solute concentrations in streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frisbee, Marty D.; Tolley, Douglas G.; Wilson, John L.

2017-04-01

Estimates of groundwater circulation depths based on field data are lacking. These data are critical to inform and refine hydrogeologic models of mountainous watersheds, and to quantify depth and time dependencies of weathering processes in watersheds. Here we test two competing hypotheses on the role of geology and geologic setting in deep groundwater circulation and the role of deep groundwater in the geochemical evolution of streams and springs. We test these hypotheses in two mountainous watersheds that have distinctly different geologic settings (one crystalline, metamorphic bedrock and the other volcanic bedrock). Estimated circulation depths for springs in both watersheds range from 0.6 to 1.6 km and may be as great as 2.5 km. These estimated groundwater circulation depths are much deeper than commonly modeled depths suggesting that we may be forcing groundwater flow paths too shallow in models. In addition, the spatial relationships of groundwater circulation depths are different between the two watersheds. Groundwater circulation depths in the crystalline bedrock watershed increase with decreasing elevation indicative of topography-driven groundwater flow. This relationship is not present in the volcanic bedrock watershed suggesting that both the source of fracturing (tectonic versus volcanic) and increased primary porosity in the volcanic bedrock play a role in deep groundwater circulation. The results from the crystalline bedrock watershed also indicate that relatively deep groundwater circulation can occur at local scales in headwater drainages less than 9.0 km2 and at larger fractions than commonly perceived. Deep groundwater is a primary control on streamflow processes and solute concentrations in both watersheds.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation.

PubMed

Clement, Amy; Bellomo, Katinka; Murphy, Lisa N; Cane, Mark A; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Rädel, Gaby; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-10-16

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a major mode of climate variability with important societal impacts. Most previous explanations identify the driver of the AMO as the ocean circulation, specifically the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we show that the main features of the observed AMO are reproduced in models where the ocean heat transport is prescribed and thus cannot be the driver. Allowing the ocean circulation to interact with the atmosphere does not significantly alter the characteristics of the AMO in the current generation of climate models. These results suggest that the AMO is the response to stochastic forcing from the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, with thermal coupling playing a role in the tropics. In this view, the AMOC and other ocean circulation changes would be largely a response to, not a cause of, the AMO. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A Regression Study of Demand, Cost and Pricing Public Library Circulation Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratton, Peter J.

This paper examines three aspects of the public library's circulation service: (1) a demand function for the service is estimated; (2) a long-run unit circulation cost curve is developed; and (3) using the economist's notion of "efficiency," a general model for the pricing of the circulation service is presented. The estimated demand…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pipin, V. V.; Kosovichev, A. G.

Recent helioseismology findings, as well as advances in direct numerical simulations of global dynamics of the Sun, have indicated that in each solar hemisphere meridional circulation may form more than one cell along the radius in the convection zone. In particular, recent helioseismology results revealed a double-cell structure of the meridional circulation. We investigate properties of a mean-field solar dynamo with such double-cell meridional circulation. The dynamo model also includes the realistic profile of solar differential rotation (including the tachocline and subsurface shear layer) and takes into account effects of turbulent pumping, anisotropic turbulent diffusivity, and conservation of magnetic helicity.more » Contrary to previous flux-transport dynamo models, we find that the dynamo model can robustly reproduce the basic properties of the solar magnetic cycles for a wide range of model parameters and circulation speeds. The best agreement with observations is achieved when the surface meridional circulation speed is about 12 m s{sup –1}. For this circulation speed, the simulated sunspot activity shows good synchronization with the polar magnetic fields. Such synchronization was indeed observed during previous sunspot Cycles 21 and 22. We compare theoretical and observed phase diagrams of the sunspot number and the polar field strength and discuss the peculiar properties of Cycle 23.« less

Interannual Variability of the Patagonian Shelf Circulation and Cross-Shelf Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combes, V.; Matano, R. P.

2016-02-01

Observational studies have already established the general mean circulation and hydrographic characteristics of the Patagonian shelf waters using data from in situ observation, altimetry and more recently from the Aquarius satellite sea surface salinity, but the paucity of those data in time or below the surface leave us with an incomplete picture of the shelf circulation and of its variability. This study discusses the variability of the Patagonian central shelf circulation and off-shelf transport using a high-resolution model experiment for the period 1979-2012. The model solution shows high skill in reproducing the best-known aspects of the shelf and deep-ocean circulations. This study links the variability of the central shelf circulation and off-shelf transport to the wind variability, southern shelf transport variability and large-scale current variability. We find that while the inner and central shelf circulation are principally wind driven, the contribution of the Brazil/Malvinas Confluence (BMC) variability becomes important in the outer shelf and along the shelf break. The model also indicates that whereas the location of the off-shelf transport is controlled by the BMC, its variability is modulated by the southern shelf transport. The variability of the subtropical shelf front, where the fresh southern shelf waters encounters the saline northern shelf waters, is also presented in this study.

Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trossman, D.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-12-01

We argue that a substantial fraction of the uncertainty in the cloud radiative feedback during transient climate change may be due to uncertainty in the ocean circulation perturbation. A suite of climate model simulations in which the ocean circulation, the cloud radiative feedback, or a combination of both are held fixed while CO2 doubles, shows that changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback. Specifically, a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) helps to maintain low cloud cover in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. We propose that the AMOC decline increases the meridional SST gradient, strengthening the storm track, its attendant clouds and the amount of shortwave radiation they reflect back to space. If the results of our model were to scale proportionately in the CMIP5 models, whose AMOC decline ranges from 15 to 60% under RCP8.5, then as much as 70% of the intermodel spread in the cloud radiative feedback and 35% of the spread in the transient climate response could possibly stem from the model representations of AMOC decline.

Planning for Downtown Circulation Systems. Volume 3. Appendices.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-10-01

This volume contains worksheets for estimating circulator patronage, costs, revenues and travel impacts, detailed discussions of estimation and application procedures for the demand models developed, and a case study of the models' application using ...

[Establishment and evaluation of extracorporeal circulation model in rats].

PubMed

Xie, Xiao-Jun; Tao, Kai-Yu; Tang, Meng-Lin; Du, Lei; An, Qi; Lin, Ke; Gan, Chang-Ping; Chen, You-Wen; Luo, Shu-Hua

2012-09-01

To establish an extracorporeal circulation (ECC) rat model, and evaluate the inflammatory response and organ injury induced in the model. SD rats were anesthetized and cannulated from right common carotid artery to left femoral vein to establish the bypass of extracorporeal circulation. Then the rats were randomly divided into ECC group and sham group. The rats in ECC group were subjected to extracorporeal circulation for 2 hours and then rest for 2 hours, while the rats in sham group were only observed for 4 hours without extracorporeal circulation. After that, blood routine examination, blood gas analysis, the measurement of pro-inflammatory factors in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and lung tissue were performed to evaluate the lung injury induced by ECC. Circulating endothelial cells were also calculated by flow cytometry to assess the vascular endothelial injury. At 2 hours after ECC, red blood cell counts in both groups kept normal, while leukocyte and neutrophil counts, plasmatic tumor necrosis factor-a level and neutrophil elastase level, circulating endothelial cells in the rats of ECC group were significantly higher than those in sham group. Tumor necrosis factor-alpha in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and water content in lung of the ECC rats were also significantly higher, while the oxygenation index was significantly lower. Neutrophil infiltration was also observed in lung tissues with increased thickness of alveolar membrane in ECC group. The ECC model established from right common carotid artery to left femoral vein in our study can successfully induce systemic inflammatory response, and acute lung injury associated with inflammation.

A numerical study of circulation in the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea. Part I: Whole-basin gyres and mean currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lips, Urmas; Zhurbas, Victor; Skudra, Maris; Väli, Germo

2016-01-01

A regional model of the Gulf of Riga (GoR) with horizontal grid spacing of 0.5 nautical miles was applied to study the features and driving forces of the whole-basin circulation in the GoR. The initial conditions and atmospheric forcing were taken from the operational models High Resolution Operational Model for the Baltic (HIROMB) and High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), respectively. The wind stress curl is shown to be a major contributor to the whole-basin circulation pattern. An anticyclonic circulation pattern in the summer is determined by a combined effect of the negative wind stress curl, thermal density stratification and bottom topography. Positive values of the wind stress curl and a cyclonic circulation pattern prevail during the cold period of the year when seasonal thermocline is absent. During calm periods, the anticyclonic type of circulation is established due to a combined effect of the river runoff, saltier water inflow into and mixed water outflow from the GoR. Two seasonal baroclinic jet-like currents are identified in the summer: the Northward Longshore Current in the western GoR and Southward Subsurface Longshore Current in the eastern GoR. The alteration of the circulation pattern in the GoR from cyclonic in the cold period of the year to anticyclonic in the summer, and vice versa, was shown to be observed not every year due to inter-annual variability of wind forcing.

Fast neural network surrogates for very high dimensional physics-based models in computational oceanography.

PubMed

van der Merwe, Rudolph; Leen, Todd K; Lu, Zhengdong; Frolov, Sergey; Baptista, Antonio M

2007-05-01

We present neural network surrogates that provide extremely fast and accurate emulation of a large-scale circulation model for the coupled Columbia River, its estuary and near ocean regions. The circulation model has O(10(7)) degrees of freedom, is highly nonlinear and is driven by ocean, atmospheric and river influences at its boundaries. The surrogates provide accurate emulation of the full circulation code and run over 1000 times faster. Such fast dynamic surrogates will enable significant advances in ensemble forecasts in oceanography and weather.

IMPORTANCE OF MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION IN FLUX TRANSPORT DYNAMO: THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAUNDER-LIKE GRAND MINIMUM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karak, Bidya Binay, E-mail: bidya_karak@physics.iisc.ernet.i

2010-12-01

Meridional circulation is an important ingredient in flux transport dynamo models. We have studied its importance on the period, the amplitude of the solar cycle, and also in producing Maunder-like grand minima in these models. First, we model the periods of the last 23 sunspot cycles by varying the meridional circulation speed. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then we find that most of the cycle amplitudes also get modeled up to some extent when we model the periods. Next, we propose that at the beginning of the Maunder minimum the amplitude of meridional circulation dropped to amore » low value and then after a few years it increased again. Several independent studies also favor this assumption. With this assumption, a diffusion-dominated dynamo is able to reproduce many important features of the Maunder minimum remarkably well. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then a slower meridional circulation means that the poloidal field gets more time to diffuse during its transport through the convection zone, making the dynamo weaker. This consequence helps to model both the cycle amplitudes and the Maunder-like minima. We, however, fail to reproduce these results if the dynamo is in an advection-dominated regime.« less

Zebrafish as an early stage screening tool to study the systemic circulation of nanoparticulate drug delivery systems in vivo.

PubMed

Sieber, Sandro; Grossen, Philip; Detampel, Pascal; Siegfried, Salome; Witzigmann, Dominik; Huwyler, Jörg

2017-10-28

Nanomedicines have gained much attention for the delivery of small molecules or nucleic acids as treatment options for many diseases. However, the transfer from experimental systems to in vivo applications remains a challenge since it is difficult to assess their circulation behavior in the body at an early stage of drug discovery. Thus, innovative and improved concepts are urgently needed to overcome this issue and to close the gap between empiric nanoparticle design, in vitro assessment, and first in vivo experiments using rodent animal models. This study was focused on the zebrafish as a vertebrate screening model to assess the circulation in blood and extravasation behavior of nanoparticulate drug delivery systems in vivo. To validate this novel approach, monodisperse preparations of fluorescently labeled liposomes with similar size and zeta potential were injected into transgenic zebrafish lines expressing green fluorescent protein in their vasculature. Phosphatidylcholine-based lipids differed by fatty acid chain length and saturation. Circulation behavior and vascular distribution pattern were evaluated qualitatively and semi-quantitatively using image analysis. Liposomes composed of lipids with lower transition temperature (<28°C) as well as PEGylated liposomes showed longer circulation times and extravasation. In contrast, liposomes composed of lipids with transition temperatures>28°C bound to venous parts of the vasculature. This circulation patterns in the zebrafish model did correlate with published and experimental pharmacokinetic data from mice and rats. Our findings indicate that the zebrafish model is a useful vertebrate screening tool for nanoparticulate drug delivery systems to predict their in vivo circulation behavior with respect to systemic circulation time and exposure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maintenance of Summer Monsoon Circulations: A Planetary-Scale Perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang

2003-06-01

The monsoon circulation, which is generally considered to be driven by the landmass-ocean thermal contrast, like a gigantic land-sea breeze circulation, exhibits a phase reversal in its vertical structure; a monsoon high aloft over a continental thermal low is juxtaposed with a midoceanic trough underlaid by an oceanic anticyclone. This classic monsoon circulation model is well matched by the monsoon circulation depicted with the observational data prior to the First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment (FGGE). However, synthesizing findings of the global circulation portrayed with the post-FGGE data, it was found that some basic features of major monsoon circulations in Asia, North America, South America, and Australia differ from those of the classic monsoon circulation model. Therefore, a revision of the classic monsoon theory is suggested. With four different wave regimes selected to fit the horizontal dimensions of these monsoon circulations, basic features common to all four major monsoons are illustrated in terms of diagnostic analyses of the velocity potential maintenance equation (which relates diabatic heating and velocity potential) and the streamfunction budget (which links velocity potential and streamfunction) in these wave regimes. It is shown that a monsoon circulation is actually driven by the east-west differential heating and maintained dynamically by a balance between a vorticity source and advection. This dynamic balance is reflected by a spatial quadrature relationship between the monsoon divergent circulation and the monsoon high (low) at upper (lower) levels.

Identifying a key physical factor sensitive to the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation simulation in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Go-Un; Seo, Kyong-Hwan

2018-01-01

A key physical factor in regulating the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) simulation is examined by using 26 climate model simulations from the World Meteorological Organization's Working Group for Numerical Experimentation/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study (WGNE and MJO-Task Force/GASS) global model comparison project. For this, intraseasonal moisture budget equation is analyzed and a simple, efficient physical quantity is developed. The result shows that MJO skill is most sensitive to vertically integrated intraseasonal zonal wind convergence (ZC). In particular, a specific threshold value of the strength of the ZC can be used as distinguishing between good and poor models. An additional finding is that good models exhibit the correct simultaneous convection and large-scale circulation phase relationship. In poor models, however, the peak circulation response appears 3 days after peak rainfall, suggesting unfavorable coupling between convection and circulation. For an improving simulation of the MJO in climate models, we propose that this delay of circulation in response to convection needs to be corrected in the cumulus parameterization scheme.

PARTICLE FLOW, MIXING, AND CHEMICAL REACTION IN CIRCULATING FLUIDIZED BED ABSORBERS

EPA Science Inventory

A mixing model has been developed to simulate the particle residence time distribution (RTD) in a circulating fluidized bed absorber (CFBA). Also, a gas/solid reaction model for sulfur dioxide (SO2) removal by lime has been developed. For the reaction model that considers RTD dis...

Documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 1: Model documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay, E.; Balgovind, R.; Chao, W.; Edelmann, J.; Pfaendtner, J.; Takacs, L.; Takano, K.

1983-01-01

The volume 1, of a 3 volume technical memoranda which contains a documentation of the GLAS Fourth Order General Circulation Model is presented. Volume 1 contains the documentation, description of the stratospheric/tropospheric extension, user's guide, climatological boundary data, and some climate simulation studies.

Toward Better Intraseasonal and Seasonal Prediction: Verification and Evaluation of the NOGAPS Model Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

Circulation (HC) in terms of the meridional streamfunction. The interannual variability of the Atlantic HC in boreal summer was examined using the EOF...large-scale circulations in the NAVGEM model and the source of predictability for the seasonal variation of the Atlantic TCs. We have been working...EOF analysis of Meridional Circulation (JAS). (a) The leading mode (M1); (b) variance explained by the first 10 modes. 9

Dynamical Evaluation of Ocean Models using the Gulf Stream as an Example

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

transport for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as the 3 nonlinear solutions discussed in Section 2. The model boundary is...Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) wind stress climatology and the northward upper ocean flow (14 Sv) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... overturning circulation (AMOC) streamfunction with a 5 Sv contour interval from (a) 1/12° Atlantic MICOM, (b) 1/12° Atlantic HYCOM, and (c) 1/12

Salinity Boundary Conditions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Depth and Quasi-Isopycnic Coordinate Global Ocean Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-30

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Depth and Quasi-Isopycnic Coordinate Global Ocean...2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Salinity Boundary Conditions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Depth and Quasi-Isopycnic Coordinate... Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in global simulations performed with the depth coordinate Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean

A Simple Diagnostic Model of the Circulation Beneath an Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, Adrian; Nøst, Ole Anders

2017-04-01

The ocean circulation beneath ice shelves supplies the heat required to melt ice and exports the resulting freshwater. It therefore plays a key role in determining the mass balance and geometry of the ice shelves and hence the restraint they impose on the outflow of grounded ice from the interior of the ice sheet. Despite this critical role in regulating the ice sheet's contribution to eustatic sea level, an understanding of some of the most basic features of the circulation is lacking. The conventional paradigm is one of a buoyancy-forced overturning circulation, with inflow of warm, salty water along the seabed and outflow of cooled and freshened waters along the ice base. However, most sub-ice-shelf cavities are broad relative to the internal Rossby radius, so a horizontal circulation accompanies the overturning. Primitive equation ocean models applied to idealised geometries produce cyclonic gyres of comparable magnitude, but in the absence of a theoretical understanding of what controls the gyre strength, those solutions can only be validated against each other. Furthermore, we have no understanding of how the gyre circulation should change given more complex geometries. To begin to address this gap in our theoretical understanding we present a simple, linear, steady-state model for the circulation beneath an ice shelf. Our approach in analogous to that of Stommel's classic analysis of the wind-driven gyres, but is complicated by the fact that his most basic assumption of homogeneity is inappropriate. The only forcing on the flow beneath an ice shelf arises because of the horizontal density gradients set up by melting. We thus arrive at a diagnostic model which gives us the depth-dependent horizontal circulation that results from an imposed geometry and density distribution. We describe the development of the model and present some preliminary solutions for the simplest cavity geometries.

3D Visualization of Global Ocean Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, V. G.; Sharma, R.; Zhang, E.; Schmittner, A.; Jenny, B.

2015-12-01

Advanced 3D visualization techniques are seldom used to explore the dynamic behavior of ocean circulation. Streamlines are an effective method for visualization of flow, and they can be designed to clearly show the dynamic behavior of a fluidic system. We employ vector field editing and extraction software to examine the topology of velocity vector fields generated by a 3D global circulation model coupled to a one-layer atmosphere model simulating preindustrial and last glacial maximum (LGM) conditions. This results in a streamline-based visualization along multiple density isosurfaces on which we visualize points of vertical exchange and the distribution of properties such as temperature and biogeochemical tracers. Previous work involving this model examined the change in the energetics driving overturning circulation and mixing between simulations of LGM and preindustrial conditions. This visualization elucidates the relationship between locations of vertical exchange and mixing, as well as demonstrates the effects of circulation and mixing on the distribution of tracers such as carbon isotopes.

Quantifying predictability variations in a low-order ocean-atmosphere model - A dynamical systems approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nese, Jon M.; Dutton, John A.

1993-01-01

The predictability of the weather and climatic states of a low-order moist general circulation model is quantified using a dynamic systems approach, and the effect of incorporating a simple oceanic circulation on predictability is evaluated. The predictability and the structure of the model attractors are compared using Liapunov exponents, local divergence rates, and the correlation and Liapunov dimensions. It was found that the activation of oceanic circulation increases the average error doubling time of the atmosphere and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by 10 percent and decreases the variance of the largest local divergence rate by 20 percent. When an oceanic circulation develops, the average predictability of annually averaged states is improved by 25 percent and the variance of the largest local divergence rate decreases by 25 percent.

Comparing a quasi-3D to a full 3D nearshore circulation model: SHORECIRC and ROMS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haas, Kevin A.; Warner, John C.

2009-01-01

Predictions of nearshore and surf zone processes are important for determining coastal circulation, impacts of storms, navigation, and recreational safety. Numerical modeling of these systems facilitates advancements in our understanding of coastal changes and can provide predictive capabilities for resource managers. There exists many nearshore coastal circulation models, however they are mostly limited or typically only applied as depth integrated models. SHORECIRC is an established surf zone circulation model that is quasi-3D to allow the effect of the variability in the vertical structure of the currents while maintaining the computational advantage of a 2DH model. Here we compare SHORECIRC to ROMS, a fully 3D ocean circulation model which now includes a three dimensional formulation for the wave-driven flows. We compare the models with three different test applications for: (i) spectral waves approaching a plane beach with an oblique angle of incidence; (ii) monochromatic waves driving longshore currents in a laboratory basin; and (iii) monochromatic waves on a barred beach with rip channels in a laboratory basin. Results identify that the models are very similar for the depth integrated flows and qualitatively consistent for the vertically varying components. The differences are primarily the result of the vertically varying radiation stress utilized by ROMS and the utilization of long wave theory for the radiation stress formulation in vertical varying momentum balance by SHORECIRC. The quasi-3D model is faster, however the applicability of the fully 3D model allows it to extend over a broader range of processes, temporal, and spatial scales.

Comparing a quasi-3D to a full 3D nearshore circulation model: SHORECIRC and ROMS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haas, K.A.; Warner, J.C.

2009-01-01

Predictions of nearshore and surf zone processes are important for determining coastal circulation, impacts of storms, navigation, and recreational safety. Numerical modeling of these systems facilitates advancements in our understanding of coastal changes and can provide predictive capabilities for resource managers. There exists many nearshore coastal circulation models, however they are mostly limited or typically only applied as depth integrated models. SHORECIRC is an established surf zone circulation model that is quasi-3D to allow the effect of the variability in the vertical structure of the currents while maintaining the computational advantage of a 2DH model. Here we compare SHORECIRC to ROMS, a fully 3D ocean circulation model which now includes a three dimensional formulation for the wave-driven flows. We compare the models with three different test applications for: (i) spectral waves approaching a plane beach with an oblique angle of incidence; (ii) monochromatic waves driving longshore currents in a laboratory basin; and (iii) monochromatic waves on a barred beach with rip channels in a laboratory basin. Results identify that the models are very similar for the depth integrated flows and qualitatively consistent for the vertically varying components. The differences are primarily the result of the vertically varying radiation stress utilized by ROMS and the utilization of long wave theory for the radiation stress formulation in vertical varying momentum balance by SHORECIRC. The quasi-3D model is faster, however the applicability of the fully 3D model allows it to extend over a broader range of processes, temporal, and spatial scales. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

A Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with multi-cellular meridional circulation in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belucz, B.; Dikpati, M.; Forgacs-Dajka, E.

2014-12-01

Babcock-Leighton type solar dynamo models with single cell meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solarcycle features, and recently such a model was applied for solarcycle 24 amplitude prediction. It seems that cycle 24 amplitudeforecast may not be validated. One of the reasons is the assumption of a single cell meridional circulation. Recent observations andtheoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celledflow pattern. So it is nessecary to examine the role of complexmulti-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model in the advection and diffusion dominated regimes.By simulating a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with multi-cellularflow, we show that the presence of a weak, second, high-latitudereverse cell speeds up the cycle and slighty enhances the poleward branch in the butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cellin depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing and leads to ananti-solar type feature. If, instead, the butterfly diagram isconstructed from the middle of the convection zone in that case, a solar-like pattern can be retrieved. All the above cases behavequalitatively similar in advection and diffusion-dominated regimes.However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing fourcells in latitude behaves distinctly different in the two regimes, producing a solar-like butterfly diagram with fast cycles indiffusion-dominated regime, and a complex branches in the butterflydiagram in the advection-dominated regime. Another interestingfinding from our studies is that a four-celled flow pattern containing two in radius and two in latitude always producesquadrupolar parity as the relaxed solution.

The impact of climatological model biases in the North Atlantic jet on predicted future circulation change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, I.

2015-12-01

A long standing bias among global climate models (GCMs) is their incorrect representation of the wintertime circulation of the North Atlantic region. Specifically models tend to exhibit a North Atlantic jet (and associated storm track) that is too zonal, extending across central Europe, when it should tilt northward toward Scandinavia. GCM's consistently predict substantial changes in the large scale circulation in this region, consisting of a localized anti-cyclonic circulation, centered over the Mediterranean and accompanied by increased aridity there and increased storminess over Northern Europe.Here, we present preliminary results from experiments that are designed to address the question of what the impact of the climatological circulation biases might be on this predicted future response. Climate change experiments will be compared in two versions of the Community Earth System Model: the first is a free running version of the model, as typically used in climate prediction; the second is a bias corrected version of the model in which a seasonally varying cycle of bias correction tendencies are applied to the wind and temperature fields. These bias correction tendencies are designed to account for deficiencies in the fast parameterized processes, with an aim to push the model toward a more realistic climatology.While these experiments come with the caveat that they assume the bias correction tendencies will remain constant with time, they allow for an initial assessment, through controlled experiments, of the impact that biases in the climatological circulation can have on future predictions in this region. They will also motivate future work that can make use of the bias correction tendencies to understand the underlying physical processes responsible for the incorrect tilt of the jet.

Computer Simulation of the Circulation Subsystem of a Library

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, W. M., Jr.

1975-01-01

When circulation data are used as input parameters for a computer simulation of a library's circulation subsystem, the results of the simulation provide information on book availability and delays. The model may be used to simulate alternative loan policies. (Author/LS)

Residual estuarine circulation in the Mandovi, a monsoonal estuary: A three-dimensional model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vijith, V.; Shetye, S. R.; Baetens, K.; Luyten, P.; Michael, G. S.

2016-05-01

Observations in the Mandovi estuary, located on the central west coast of India, have shown that the salinity field in this estuary is remarkably time-dependent and passes through all possible states of stratification (riverine, highly-stratified, partially-mixed and well-mixed) during a year as the runoff into the estuary varies from high values (∼1000 m3 s-1) in the wet season to negligible values (∼1 m3 s-1) at end of the dry season. The time-dependence is forced by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and hence the estuary is referred to as a monsoonal estuary. In this paper, we use a three-dimensional, open source, hydrodynamic, numerical model to reproduce the observed annual salinity field in the Mandovi. We then analyse the model results to define characteristics of residual estuarine circulation in the Mandovi. Our motivation to study this aspect of the Mandovi's dynamics is derived from the following three considerations. First, residual circulation is important to long-term evolution of an estuary; second, we need to understand how this circulation responds to strongly time-dependent runoff forcing experienced by a monsoonal estuary; and third, Mandovi is among the best studied estuaries that come under the influence of ISM, and has observations that can be used to validate the model. Our analysis shows that the residual estuarine circulation in the Mandovi shows four distinct phases during a year: a river like flow that is oriented downstream throughout the estuary; a salt-wedge type circulation, with flow into the estuary near the bottom and out of the estuary near the surface restricted close to the mouth of the estuary; circulation associated with a partially-mixed estuary; and, the circulation associated with a well-mixed estuary. Dimensional analysis of the field of residual circulation helped us to establish the link between strength of residual circulation at a location and magnitude of river runoff and rate of mixing at the location. We then derive an analytical expression that approximates exchange velocity (bottom velocity minus near freshwater velocity at a location) as a function of freshwater velocity and rate of mixing.

Numerical Investigation of the Middle Atlantic Bight Shelfbreak Frontal Circulation Using a High-Resolution Ocean Hindcast Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

circulation from December 2003 to June 2008 . The model is driven by tidal harmonics, realistic atmospheric forcing, and dynamically consistent initial and open...important element of the regional circulation (He and Wilkin 2006). We applied the method of Mellor and Yamada (1982) to compute vertical turbulent...shelfbreak ROMS hindcast ran continuously from December 2003 through January 2008 . Initial conditions were taken from the MABGOM ROMS simulation on 1

Risk mapping of West Nile virus circulation in Spain, 2015.

PubMed

Sánchez-Gómez, Amaya; Amela, Carmen; Fernández-Carrión, Eduardo; Martínez-Avilés, Marta; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Sierra-Moros, María José

2017-05-01

West Nile fever is an emergent disease in Europe. The objective of this study was to conduct a predictive risk mapping of West Nile Virus (WNV) circulation in Spain based on historical data of WNV circulation. Areas of Spain with evidence of WNV circulation were mapped based on data from notifications to the surveillance systems and a literature review. A logistic regression-based spatial model was used to assess the probability of WNV circulation. Data were analyzed at municipality level. Mean temperatures of the period from June to October, presence of wetlands and presence of Special Protection Areas for birds were considered as potential predictors. Two predictors of WNV circulation were identified: higher temperature [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.07, 95% CI 1.82-2.35, p<0.01] and presence of wetlands (3.37, 95% CI 1.89-5.99, p<0.01). Model validations indicated good predictions: area under the ROC curve was 0.895 (95% CI 0.870-0.919) for internal validation and 0.895 (95% CI 0.840-0.951) for external validation. This model could support improvements of WNV risk- based surveillance in Spain. The importance of a comprehensive surveillance for WNF, including human, animal and potential vectors is highlighted, which could additionally result in model refinements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deep water characteristics and circulation in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Aimei; Du, Yan; Peng, Shiqiu; Liu, Kexiu; Huang, Rui Xin

2018-04-01

This study investigates the deep circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) using oceanographic observations combined with results from a bottom layer reduced gravity model. The SCS water, 2000 m below the surface, is quite different from that in the adjacent Pacific Ocean, and it is characterized by its low dissolved oxygen (DO), high temperature and low salinity. The horizontal distribution of deep water properties indicates a basin-scale cyclonic circulation driven by the Luzon overflow. The results of the bottom layer reduced gravity model are consistent with the existence of the cyclonic circulation in the deep SCS. The circulation is stronger at the northern/western boundary. After overflowing the sill of the Luzon Strait, the deep water moves broadly southwestward, constrained by the 3500 m isobath. The broadening of the southward flow is induced by the downwelling velocity in the interior of the deep basin. The main deep circulation bifurcates into two branches after the Zhongsha Islands. The southward branch continues flowing along the 3500 m isobath, and the eastward branch forms the sub-basin scale cyclonic circulation around the seamounts in the central deep SCS. The returning flow along the east boundary is fairly weak. The numerical experiments of the bottom layer reduced gravity model reveal the important roles of topography, bottom friction, and the upwelling/downwelling pattern in controlling the spatial structure, particularly the strong, deep western boundary current.

Circulating DNA and its methylation level in inflammatory bowel disease and related colon cancer.

PubMed

Bai, Xuming; Zhu, Yaqun; Pu, Wangyang; Xiao, Li; Li, Kai; Xing, Chungen; Jin, Yong

2015-01-01

Both of chronic inflammation and abnormal immune in inflammatory bowel disease can induce colon cancer. Previous research showed that cell apoptosis and necrosis become the main source of circulating DNA in the peripheral blood during tumorigenesis that reduced along with methylation degree. However, its role in the process of colitis transforming to colon cancer is not clarified. Drinking 3% DSS was used to establish colitis model, while 3% dextran sodium sulfate (DSS) combined with azo oxidation methane (AOM) intraperitoneal injection was applied to establish colitis related colon cancer model. Circulating DNA and its methylation level in peripheral blood were tested. Morphology observation, HE staining, and p53 and β-catenin expression detection confirmed that drinking 3% DSS and 3% DSS combined with AOM intraperitoneal injection can successfully establish colitis and colitis associated colorectal cancer models. Circulating DNA level in colitis and colon cancer mice increased by gradient compared with control, while significant difference was observed between each other. Circulating DNA methylation level decreased obviously in colitis and colon cancer, and significant difference was observed between each other. Abnormal protein expression, circulating DNA and its methylation level in ulcerative colitis associated colorectal tissues change in gradient, suggesting that circulating DNA and its methylation level can be treated as new markers for colitis cancer transformation that has certain significance to explore the mechanism of human ulcerative colitis canceration.

Exploring Secondary Students' Epistemological Features Depending on the Evaluation Levels of the Group Model on Blood Circulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Shinyoung; Kim, Heui-Baik

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to identify the epistemological features and model qualities depending on model evaluation levels and to explore the reasoning process behind high-level evaluation through small group interaction about blood circulation. Nine groups of three to four students in the eighth grade participated in the modeling practice.…

Mathematical modelling of the maternal cardiovascular system in the three stages of pregnancy.

PubMed

Corsini, Chiara; Cervi, Elena; Migliavacca, Francesco; Schievano, Silvia; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Pennati, Giancarlo

2017-09-01

In this study, a mathematical model of the female circulation during pregnancy is presented in order to investigate the hemodynamic response to the cardiovascular changes associated with each trimester of pregnancy. First, a preliminary lumped parameter model of the circulation of a non-pregnant female was developed, including the heart, the systemic circulation with a specific block for the uterine district and the pulmonary circulation. The model was first tested at rest; then heart rate and vascular resistances were individually varied to verify the correct response to parameter alterations characterising pregnancy. In order to simulate hemodynamics during pregnancy at each trimester, the main changes applied to the model consisted in reducing vascular resistances, and simultaneously increasing heart rate and ventricular wall volumes. Overall, reasonable agreement was found between model outputs and in vivo data, with the trends of the cardiac hemodynamic quantities suggesting correct response of the heart model throughout pregnancy. Results were reported for uterine hemodynamics, with flow tracings resembling typical Doppler velocity waveforms at each stage, including pulsatility indexes. Such a model may be used to explore the changes that happen during pregnancy in female with cardiovascular diseases. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observations and Modeling of the Transient General Circulation of the North Pacific Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McWilliams, James C.

2000-01-01

Because of recent progress in satellite altimetry and numerical modeling and the accumulation and archiving of long records of hydrographic and meteorological variables, it is becoming feasible to describe and understand the transient general circulation of the ocean (i.e., variations with spatial scales larger than a few hundred kilometers and time scales of seasonal and longer-beyond the mesoscale). We have carried out various studies in investigation of the transient general circulation of the Pacific Ocean from a coordinated analysis of satellite altimeter data, historical hydrographic gauge data, scatterometer wind observations, reanalyzed operational wind fields, and a variety of ocean circulation models. Broadly stated, our goal was to achieve a phenomenological catalogue of different possible types of large-scale, low-frequency variability, as a context for understanding the observational record. The approach is to identify the simplest possible model from which particular observed phenomena can be isolated and understood dynamically and then to determine how well these dynamical processes are represented in more complex Oceanic General Circulation Models (OGCMs). Research results have been obtained on Rossby wave propagation and transformation, oceanic intrinsic low-frequency variability, effects of surface gravity waves, pacific data analyses, OGCM formulation and developments, and OGCM simulations of forced variability.

Modelling study of three-dimensional circulation and particle movement over the Sable Gully of Nova Scotia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Shiliang; Sheng, Jinyu; Greenan, Blair John William

2014-01-01

The Sable Gully is a broad deep underwater canyon located to the east of Sable Island on the edge of the Scotian Shelf. Being the home of many marine species including the endangered Northern Bottlenose Whale, the Gully was designated as a marine protected area (MPA) in 2004. Better understanding of physical environmental conditions over this MPA is needed for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, a multi-nested ocean circulation model and a particle tracking model are used to examine the three-dimensional (3D) circulation and movement of particles carried passively by the flow over the Sable Gully. The 3D circulation model is driven by tides, wind, and surface heat/freshwater fluxes. The model performance is assessed by comparing the results with the previous numerical tidal results and current meter observations made in the Gully. The simulated tidal circulation over the Gully and adjacent waters is relatively strong on shallow banks and relatively weak on the continental slope. Below the depth of the Gully rim ( ˜ 200 m), the tidal currents are constrained by the thalweg of the Gully and amplified toward the Gully head. The simulated subtidal circulation in the Gully has a complex spatial structure and significant seasonal variability. The simulated time-dependent 3D flow fields are then used in a particle tracking model to study the particle movements, downstream and upstream areas, and residence time of the Gully. Based on the movements of particles released at the depth of the Gully rim and tracked forward in time, the e-folding residence time is estimated to be about 7 and 13 days in February and August 2006, respectively. The Gully flanks are identified as high retention areas with the typical residence time of 10 and 20 days in February and August 2006, respectively. Tracking particles with and without tides reveals that tidal circulation reduces the value of residence time in the Gully, particularly along the Gully flanks.

Magnetic Flux Circulation During Dawn-Dusk Oriented Interplanetary Magnetic Field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, E. J.; Lopez, R. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Deng, Y.; Wiltberger, M.; Lyon, J.

2010-01-01

Magnetic flux circulation is a primary mode of energy transfer from the solar wind into the ionosphere and inner magnetosphere. For southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), magnetic flux circulation is described by the Dungey cycle (dayside merging, night side reconnection, and magnetospheric convection), and both the ionosphere and inner magnetosphere receive energy. For dawn-dusk oriented IMF, magnetic flux circulation is not well understood, and the inner magnetosphere does not receive energy. Several models have been suggested for possible reconnection patterns; the general pattern is: dayside merging; reconnection on the dayside or along the dawn/dusk regions; and, return flow on dayside only. These models are consistent with the lack of energy in the inner magnetosphere. We will present evidence that the Dungey cycle does not explain the energy transfer during dawn-dusk oriented IMF. We will also present evidence of how magnetic flux does circulate during dawn-dusk oriented IMF, specifically how the magnetic flux reconnects and circulates back.

Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, F.; Hoteit, I.; Koehl, A.

2010-12-01

The Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonal overturning circulation. In winter, a typical two-layer exchange structure, with a fresher inflow from the Gulf of Aden on top of an outflow from the Red Sea, is established. In summer months (June to September) this circulation pattern is changed to a three-layer structure: a surface outflow from the Red Sea on top of a subsurface intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water and a weakened deep outflow. This seasonal variability is studied using a general circulation model, MITgcm, with 6 hourly NCEP atmospheric forcing. The model is able to reproduce the observed seasonal variability very well. The forcing mechanisms of the seasonal variability related to seasonal surface wind stress and buoyancy flux, and water mass transformation processes associated with the seasonal overturning circulation are analyzed and presented.

The Twist Tensor Nuclear Norm for Video Completion.

PubMed

Hu, Wenrui; Tao, Dacheng; Zhang, Wensheng; Xie, Yuan; Yang, Yehui

2017-12-01

In this paper, we propose a new low-rank tensor model based on the circulant algebra, namely, twist tensor nuclear norm (t-TNN). The twist tensor denotes a three-way tensor representation to laterally store 2-D data slices in order. On one hand, t-TNN convexly relaxes the tensor multirank of the twist tensor in the Fourier domain, which allows an efficient computation using fast Fourier transform. On the other, t-TNN is equal to the nuclear norm of block circulant matricization of the twist tensor in the original domain, which extends the traditional matrix nuclear norm in a block circulant way. We test the t-TNN model on a video completion application that aims to fill missing values and the experiment results validate its effectiveness, especially when dealing with video recorded by a nonstationary panning camera. The block circulant matricization of the twist tensor can be transformed into a circulant block representation with nuclear norm invariance. This representation, after transformation, exploits the horizontal translation relationship between the frames in a video, and endows the t-TNN model with a more powerful ability to reconstruct panning videos than the existing state-of-the-art low-rank models.

Efficiency of circulant diallels via mixed models in the selection of papaya genotypes resistant to foliar fungal diseases.

PubMed

Vivas, M; Silveira, S F; Viana, A P; Amaral, A T; Cardoso, D L; Pereira, M G

2014-07-02

Diallel crossing methods provide information regarding the performance of genitors between themselves and their hybrid combinations. However, with a large number of parents, the number of hybrid combinations that can be obtained and evaluated become limited. One option regarding the number of parents involved is the adoption of circulant diallels. However, information is lacking regarding diallel analysis using mixed models. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the method of linear mixed models to estimate, for variable resistance to foliar fungal diseases, components of general and specific combining ability in a circulant table with different s values. Subsequently, 50 diallels were simulated for each s value, and the correlations and estimates of the combining abilities of the different diallel combinations were analyzed. The circulant diallel method using mixed modeling was effective in the classification of genitors regarding their combining abilities relative to the complete diallels. The numbers of crosses in which each genitor(s) will compose the circulant diallel and the estimated heritability affect the combining ability estimates. With three crosses per parent, it is possible to obtain good concordance (correlation above 0.8) between the combining ability estimates.

Narrowing of the Upwelling Branch of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and Hadley Cell in Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Feng; Stolarski, Richard S.; Pawson, Steven; Newman, Paul A.; Waugh, Darryn

2010-01-01

Changes in the width of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and Hadley cell in the 21st Century are investigated using simulations from a coupled chemistry-climate model. In these model simulations the tropical upwelling region narrows in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The narrowing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is caused by an equatorward shift of Rossby wave critical latitudes and Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the subtropical lower stratosphere. In the troposphere, the model projects an expansion of the Hadley cell's poleward boundary, but a narrowing of the Hadley rising branch. Model results suggest that the narrowing of the Hadley cell ascent is also eddy-driven.

A time-dependent, three-dimensional model of the Delaware Bay and River system. Part 2: Three-dimensional flow fields and residual circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galperin, Boris; Mellor, George L.

1990-09-01

The three-dimensional model of Delaware Bay, River and adjacent continental shelf was described in Part 1. Here, Part 2 of this two-part paper demonstrates that the model is capable of realistic simulation of current and salinity distributions, tidal cycle variability, events of strong mixing caused by high winds and rapid salinity changes due to high river runoff. The 25-h average subtidal circulation strongly depends on the wind forcing. Monthly residual currents and salinity distributions demonstrate a classical two-layer estuarine circulation wherein relatively low salinity water flows out at the surface and compensating high salinity water from the shelf flows at the bottom. The salinity intrusion is most vigorous along deep channels in the Bay. Winds can generate salinity fronts inside and outside the Bay and enhance or weaken the two-layer circulation pattern. Since the portion of the continental shelf included in the model is limited, the model shelf circulation is locally wind-driven and excludes such effects as coastally trapped waves and interaction with Gulf Stream rings; nevertheless, a significant portion of the coastal elevation variability is hindcast by the model. Also, inclusion of the shelf improves simulation of salinity inside the Bay compared with simulations where the salinity boundary condition is specified at the mouth of the Bay.

Relationship among Phosphorus Circulation Activity, Bacterial Biomass, pH, and Mineral Concentration in Agricultural Soil.

PubMed

Adhikari, Dinesh; Jiang, Tianyi; Kawagoe, Taiki; Kai, Takamitsu; Kubota, Kenzo; Araki, Kiwako S; Kubo, Motoki

2017-12-04

Improvement of phosphorus circulation in the soil is necessary to enhance phosphorus availability to plants. Phosphorus circulation activity is an index of soil's ability to supply soluble phosphorus from organic phosphorus in the soil solution. To understand the relationship among phosphorus circulation activity; bacterial biomass; pH; and Fe, Al, and Ca concentrations (described as mineral concentration in this paper) in agricultural soil, 232 soil samples from various agricultural fields were collected and analyzed. A weak relationship between phosphorus circulation activity and bacterial biomass was observed in all soil samples ( R ² = 0.25), and this relationship became significantly stronger at near-neutral pH (6.0-7.3; R ² = 0.67). No relationship between phosphorus circulation activity and bacterial biomass was observed at acidic (pH < 6.0) or alkaline (pH > 7.3) pH. A negative correlation between Fe and Al concentrations and phosphorus circulation activity was observed at acidic pH ( R ² = 0.72 and 0.73, respectively), as well as for Ca at alkaline pH ( R ² = 0.64). Therefore, bacterial biomass, pH, and mineral concentration should be considered together for activation of phosphorus circulation activity in the soil. A relationship model was proposed based on the effects of bacterial biomass and mineral concentration on phosphorus circulation activity. The suitable conditions of bacterial biomass, pH, and mineral concentration for phosphorus circulation activity could be estimated from the relationship model.

Circulating asymmetric dimethylarginine and the risk of preeclampsia: a meta-analysis based on 1338 participants.

PubMed

Yuan, Jing; Wang, Xinguo; Xie, Yudou; Wang, Yuzhi; Dong, Lei; Li, Hong; Zhu, Tongyu

2017-07-04

Patients with preeclampsia have higher circulating asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA). However, whether circulating ADMA is elevated before the diagnosis of preeclampsia has not been determined. A meta-analysis of observational studies that reported circulating ADMA level before the onset of preeclampsia was performed. Pubmed and Embase were searched. Standardized mean differences (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to estimate the differences in circulating ADMA. A random effect model or a fixed effect model was applied depending on the heterogeneity. The predictive efficacy of circulating ADMA for the incidence of preeclampsia was also explored. Eleven comparisons with 1338 pregnant women were included. The pooled results showed that the circulating ADMA was significantly higher in women who subsequently developed preeclampsia as compared with those did not (SMD: 0.71, p < 0.001) with a moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 43%). Stratified analyses suggested elevation of circulating ADMA is more remarkable in studies with GA of ADMA sampling ≥ 20 weeks (SMD: 0.89, p < 0.01) as compared those with GA of ADMA sampling < 20 weeks (SMD: 0.56, p < 0.01; p for subgroup interaction = 0.03). Differences of maternal age, study design, and ADMA measurement methods did not significantly affect the results. Only two studies evaluated the potential predicting ability of circulating ADMA for subsequent preeclampsia, and retrieved moderate predictive efficacy. Circulating ADMA is elevated before the development of preeclampsia. Studies are needed to evaluate the predictive efficacy of ADMA for the incidence of preeclampsia.

Recent intensification of the Walker Circulation and the role of natural sea surface temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X.; Allen, R.

2017-12-01

In a warming world, the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation-including the Walker Circulation-is expected to weaken due to thermodynamic constraints. Tropical precipitation increases at a slower rate than water vapor-which increases according to Clausius Clapeyron scaling, assuming constant relative humidity-so the tropical overturning circulation slows down. This is supported by both observations and model simulations, which show a slowdown of the Walker Circulation over the 20th century. Model projections suggest a further weakening of the Walker Circulation in the 21st century. However, over the last several decades (1979-2014), multiple observations reveal a robust strengthening of the Walker Circulation. Although coupled CMIP5 simulations are unable to reproduce this strengthening, AMIP simulations-which feature the observed evolution of SSTs-are generally able to reproduce it. Assuming the ensemble mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from historical CMIP5 simulations accurately represent the externally forced SST response, the observed SSTs can be decomposed into a forced and an unforced component. CAM5 AMIP-type simulations driven by the unforced component of observed SSTs reproduce the observed strengthening of the Walker Circulation. Corresponding simulations driven by the forced component of observed SSTs yield a weaker Walker Circulation. These results are consistent with the zonal tropical SST gradient and the Bjerknes feedback. The unforced component of SSTs yield an increased SST gradient over tropical Pacific (a La Nina like pattern) and strengthening of the tropical trade winds, which constitute the lower branch of the Walker Circulation. The forced component of SSTs yields a zonally uniform tropical Pacific SST warming and a marginal weakening of the Walker Circulation. Our results suggest significant modulation of the tropical Walker Circulation by natural SST variability over the last several decades.

Thermospheric dynamics during November 21-22, 1981 - Dynamics Explorer measurements and thermospheric general circulation model predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, R. G.; Killeen, T. L.; Spencer, N. W.; Heelis, R. A.; Reiff, P. H.

1988-01-01

Time-dependent aurora and magnetospheric convection parameterizations have been derived from solar wind and aurora particle data for November 21-22, 1981, and are used to drive the auroral and magnetospheric convection models that are embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM). Neutral wind speeds and transition boundaries between the midlatitude solar-driven circulation and the high-latitude magnetospheric convection-driven circulation are examined on an orbit-by-orbit basis. The results show that TGCM-calculated winds and reversal boundary locations are in generally good agreement with Dynamics Explorer 2 measurements for the orbits studied. This suggests that, at least for this particular period of relatively moderate geomagnetic activity, the TGCM parameterizations on the eveningside of the auroral oval and polar cap are adequate.

Parameterized and resolved Southern Ocean eddy compensation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulsen, Mads B.; Jochum, Markus; Nuterman, Roman

2018-04-01

The ability to parameterize Southern Ocean eddy effects in a forced coarse resolution ocean general circulation model is assessed. The transient model response to a suite of different Southern Ocean wind stress forcing perturbations is presented and compared to identical experiments performed with the same model in 0.1° eddy-resolving resolution. With forcing of present-day wind stress magnitude and a thickness diffusivity formulated in terms of the local stratification, it is shown that the Southern Ocean residual meridional overturning circulation in the two models is different in structure and magnitude. It is found that the difference in the upper overturning cell is primarily explained by an overly strong subsurface flow in the parameterized eddy-induced circulation while the difference in the lower cell is mainly ascribed to the mean-flow overturning. With a zonally constant decrease of the zonal wind stress by 50% we show that the absolute decrease in the overturning circulation is insensitive to model resolution, and that the meridional isopycnal slope is relaxed in both models. The agreement between the models is not reproduced by a 50% wind stress increase, where the high resolution overturning decreases by 20%, but increases by 100% in the coarse resolution model. It is demonstrated that this difference is explained by changes in surface buoyancy forcing due to a reduced Antarctic sea ice cover, which strongly modulate the overturning response and ocean stratification. We conclude that the parameterized eddies are able to mimic the transient response to altered wind stress in the high resolution model, but partly misrepresent the unperturbed Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation and associated heat transports.

Simulations show decreasing carbon stocks and potential for carbon emissions in Rocky Mountain forests over the next century.

PubMed

Boisvenue, Céline; Running, Steven W

2010-07-01

Climate change has altered the environment in which forests grow, and climate change models predict more severe alterations to come. Forests have already responded to these changes, and the future temperature and precipitation scenarios are of foremost concern, especially in the mountainous western United States, where forests occur in the dry environments that interface with grasslands. The objective of this study was to understand the trade-offs between temperature and water controls on these forested sites in the context of available climate projections. Three temperature and precipitation scenarios from IPCC AR4 AOGCMs ranging in precipitation levels were input to the process model Biome-BGC for key forested sites in the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains. Despite the omission of natural and human-caused disturbances in our simulations, our results show consequential effects from these conservative future temperature and precipitation scenarios. According to these projections, if future precipitation and temperatures are similar to or drier than the dry scenario depicted here, high-elevation forests on both the drier and wetter sites, which have in the absence of disturbance accumulated carbon, will reduce their carbon accumulation. Under the marginally drier climate projections, most forests became carbon sources by the end of the simulation horizon (2089). Under all three scenarios, growing season lengthened, the number of days with snow on the ground decreased, peak snow occurred earlier, and water stress increased through the projection horizon (1950-2089) for all sites, which represent the temperature and precipitation spectrum of forests in this region. The quantity, form, and timing of precipitation ultimately drive the carbon accumulation trajectory of forests in this region.

Representation of Clear and Cloudy Boundary Layers in Climate Models. Chapter 14

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, D. A.; Shao, Q.; Branson, M.

1997-01-01

The atmospheric general circulation models which are being used as components of climate models rely on their boundary layer parameterizations to produce realistic simulations of the surface turbulent fluxes of sensible heat. moisture. and momentum: of the boundary-layer depth over which these fluxes converge: of boundary layer cloudiness: and of the interactions of the boundary layer with the deep convective clouds that grow upwards from it. Two current atmospheric general circulation models are used as examples to show how these requirements are being addressed: these are version 3 of the Community Climate Model. which has been developed at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research. and the Colorado State University atmospheric general circulation model. The formulations and results of both models are discussed. Finally, areas for future research are suggested.

Greenland ice sheet surface mass-balance modeling in a 131-year perspective, 1950-2080

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mernild, Sebastian Haugard; Liston, Glen; Hiemstra, Christopher

2009-01-01

Fluctuations in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass-balance (SMB) and freshwater influx to the surrounding oceans closely follow climate fluctuations and are of considerable importance to the global eustatic sea level rise. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system, was used to simulate variations in the GrIS melt extent, surface water balance components, changes in SMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the IPCC scenario AlB modeled by the HIRHAM4 RCM (using boundary conditions from ECHAM5 AOGCM) from 1950 through 2080. In-situ meteorological station (GC-Net and WMO DMI) observations from inside and outside the GrISmore » were used to validate and correct RCM output data before it was used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirm the model's robustness. We simulated a {approx}90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2}) from 1950 to 2080, and a melt index (above 2,000-m elevation) increase of 138% (1.96 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} x days). The greatest difference in melt extent occured in the southern part of the GrIS, and the greatest changes in the number of melt days was seen in the eastern part of the GrIS ({approx}50-70%) and was lowest in the west ({approx}20-30%). The rate of SMB loss, largely tied to changes in ablation processes, lead to an enhanced average loss of 331 km{sup 3} from 1950 to 2080, an average 5MB level of -99 km{sup 3} for the period 2070-2080. GrIS surface freshwater runoff yielded an eustatic rise in sea level from 0.8 {+-} 0.1 (1950-1959) to 1.9 {+-} 0.1 mm (2070-2080) sea level equivalent (SLE) y{sup -1}. The accumulated GrIS freshwater runoff contribution from surface melting equaled 160 mm SLE from 1950 through 2080.« less

Renewed circulation scheme of the Baltic Sea - based on the 40-year simulation with GETM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maljutenko, Ilja; Raudsepp, Urmas

2015-04-01

The general circulation of the Baltic Sea has been characterized as cyclonic in all sub-basins based on numerous measurements and model simulations. From the long-term hydrodynamical simulation our model results have verified the general cyclonic circulation in the Baltic Proper and in the Gulf of Bothnia, but the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga have shown tendency to anticyclonic circulation. We have applied the General Estuarine Transport Model ( GETM ) for the period of 1966 - 2006 with a 1 nautical mile horizontal resolution and density adaptive bottom following vertical coordinates to make it possible to simulate horizontal and vertical density gradients with better precision. The atmospheric forcing from dynamically downscaled ERA40-HIRLAM and parametrized lateral boundary conditions are applied. Model simulation show close agreement with measurements conducted in the main monitoring stations in the BS during the simulation period. The geostrophic adjustment of density driven currents along with the upward salinity flux due to entrainment could explain the anticyclonic circulation and strong coastal current. Mean vertical velocities show that upward and downward movements are forming closed vertical circulation loops along the bottom slope of the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Bothnia. The model has also reproduced patchy vertical movement across the BS with some distinctive areas of upward advective fluxes in the GoF along the thalweg. The distinctive areas of deepwater upwelling are also evident in the Gdansk Basin, western Gotland Basin, northern Gotland Basin and in the northen part of the Bothnia Sea.

Documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 2: Scalar code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay, E.; Balgovind, R.; Chao, W.; Edelmann, D.; Pfaendtner, J.; Takacs, L.; Takano, K.

1983-01-01

Volume 2, of a 3 volume technical memoranda contains a detailed documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 2 contains the CYBER 205 scalar and vector codes of the model, list of variables, and cross references. A variable name dictionary for the scalar code, and code listings are outlined.

A Nonlinear Multigrid Solver for an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Based on Semi-Implicit Semi-Lagrangian Advection of Potential Vorticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCormick, S.; Ruge, John W.

1998-01-01

This work represents a part of a project to develop an atmospheric general circulation model based on the semi-Lagrangian advection of potential vorticity (PC) with divergence as the companion prognostic variable.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappa, G.; Pithan, F.; Shepherd, T. G.

2018-01-01

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections.

PubMed

Zappa, G; Pithan, F; Shepherd, T G

2018-01-28

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO 2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Simulations of the north sea circulation, its variability, and its implementation as hydrodynamical forcing in ERSEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenhart, Hermann J.; Radach, Günther; Backhaus, Jan O.; Pohlmann, Thomas

The rationale is given of how the gross physical features of the circulation and the stratification of the North Sea have been aggregated for inclusion in the ecosystem box model ERSEM. As the ecosystem dynamics are to a large extent determined by small-scale physical events, the ecosystem model is forced with the circulation of a specific year rather than using the long-term mean circulation field. Especially the vertical exchange processes have been explicitly included, because the primary production strongly depends on them. Simulations with a general circulation model (GCM), forced by three-hourly meteorological fields, have been utilized to derive daily horizontal transport values driving ERSEM on boxes of sizes of a few 100 km. The daily vertical transports across a fixed 30-m interface provide the necessary short-term event character of the vertical exchange. For the years 1988 and 1989 the properties of the hydrodynamic flow fields are presented in terms of trajectories of the flow, thermocline depths, of water budgets, flushing times and diffusion rates. The results of the standard simulation with ERSEM show that the daily variability of the circulation, being smoothed by the box integration procedure, is transferred to the chemical and biological state variables to a very limited degree only.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Cloud Feedback in Atmospheric General Circulation Models: An Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M. H.; Ingram, W. J.; Potter, G. L.; Alekseev, V.; Barker, H. W.; Cohen-Solal, E.; Colman, R. A.; Dazlich, D. A.; DelGenio, A. D.;

Mars atmospheric circulation - Aspects from Viking Landers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, J. A.

1985-01-01

Winds measured by the two Viking Landers have been filtered and then compared with predictions from the general circulation model and to Orbiter observations of clouds and surface phenomena that indicate wind direction. This was done to determine the degree to which filtered winds may represent aspects of the general circulation. Excellent agreement was found between wind direction data from Lander 1 and the model predictions and Orbiter observations. For Lander 2, agreement was generally good, but there were periods of disagreement which indicate that the filtering did not remove other extraneous effects. It is concluded that Lander 1 gives a good representation of the general circulation at 22.5 deg N latitude but that Lander 2 is suspect. Most wind data from Lander 1 have yet to be analyzed. It appears that when analyzed these Lander 1 data (covering 3.5 Mars years) can provide information about interannual variations in the general circulation at the Lander latitude.

The key role of ozone depleting substances in weakening the Walker Circulation over the second half of the 20th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellomo, K.; Polvani, L. M.

2017-12-01

It is widely believed that the Walker Circulation will weaken in response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) by the end of the 21st century. But over the 20th century, the existence of a statistical significant weakening trends in the observations remains unclear. We here present new modelling evidence showing that Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) may have significantly contributed to the weakening of the Walker Circulation over the years 1955-2005. While the primary impact of increasing ODS has been the formation of the ozone hole, it is perhaps not as widely appreciated that ODS are also powerful greenhouse gases. Using an ensemble of integrations with the the Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model, we show that the surface warming caused by increasing ODS over the second half of the 20th century causes a statistically significant weakening of the Walker Circulation in the model. In fact, we find that the increase of the other well-mixed GHG alone leads to a strengthening, not a weakening of the Walker Circulation, over that period in our model. When ODS concentrations are held fixed at 1950's levels, the effect of the other GHG is not sufficient, and a warming delay in the eastern tropical Pacific SST leads to an increase in the east-west SST gradient which is accompanied by a strengthening of the Walker Circulation. But, when the forcing from ODS is added in, the additional radiative forcing causes the eastern Pacific to warm faster, and the trend in the Walker Circulation reverses sign and becomes negative over the second half of the 20th century.

Variational data assimilative modeling of the Gulf of Maine in spring and summer 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yizhen; He, Ruoying; Chen, Ke; McGillicuddy, Dennis J.

2015-05-01

A data assimilative ocean circulation model is used to hindcast the Gulf of Maine [GOM) circulation in spring and summer 2010. Using the recently developed incremental strong constraint 4D Variational data assimilation algorithm, the model assimilates satellite sea surface temperature and in situ temperature and salinity profiles measured by expendable bathythermograph, Argo floats, and shipboard CTD casts. Validation against independent observations shows that the model skill is significantly improved after data assimilation. The data-assimilative model hindcast reproduces the temporal and spatial evolution of the ocean state, showing that a sea level depression southwest of the Scotian Shelf played a critical role in shaping the gulf-wide circulation. Heat budget analysis further demonstrates that both advection and surface heat flux contribute to temperature variability. The estimated time scale for coastal water to travel from the Scotian Shelf to the Jordan Basin is around 60 days, which is consistent with previous estimates based on in situ observations. Our study highlights the importance of resolving upstream and offshore forcing conditions in predicting the coastal circulation in the GOM.

Stratospheric wind errors, initial states and forecast skill in the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tenenbaum, J.

1983-01-01

Relations between stratospheric wind errors, initial states and 500 mb skill are investigated using the GLAS general circulation model initialized with FGGE data. Erroneous stratospheric winds are seen in all current general circulation models, appearing also as weak shear above the subtropical jet and as cold polar stratospheres. In this study it is shown that the more anticyclonic large-scale flows are correlated with large forecast stratospheric winds. In addition, it is found that for North America the resulting errors are correlated with initial state jet stream accelerations while for East Asia the forecast winds are correlated with initial state jet strength. Using 500 mb skill scores over Europe at day 5 to measure forecast performance, it is found that both poor forecast skill and excessive stratospheric winds are correlated with more anticyclonic large-scale flows over North America. It is hypothesized that the resulting erroneous kinetic energy contributes to the poor forecast skill, and that the problem is caused by a failure in the modeling of the stratospheric energy cycle in current general circulation models independent of vertical resolution.

A sigma-coordinate primitive equation model for studying the circulation in the South Atlantic Part II: Meridional transports and seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchesiello, P.; Barnier, B.; de Miranda, A. P.

1998-04-01

The mean and seasonal variability of the circulation and meridional heat transport in the South Atlantic are investigated using a set of numerical experiments. The primitive equation model uses a topography-following (sigma) coordinate. The model domain is limited to the South Atlantic basin. Artificial boundaries at Drake Passage, between Brazil and Angola, and between South Africa and Antarctica are treated as open boundaries. Finally, recent and self-consistent estimates of seasonal fluxes are used to define a model-dependent atmospheric forcing. Quasi-diagnostic simulations forced by constant climatological winds are first conducted to determine the sensitivity of model solutions to bottom topography smoothing, and to diagnose meridional fluxes from a mass field that is relaxed to the annual climatology of Levitus (1982). Model results show good agreement with known climatological circulation features in this basin, especially in the Confluence Region, where coarse resolution models usually give smooth structures. Sensitivity studies show that the more detailed features of the circulation are influenced by the model bathymetry. The model simulates a meridional circulation whose upper branch (the return flow that balances the southward flow of North Atlantic Deep Water) is composed of Intermediate (IW) and Thermocline (TW) Waters. The transport of IW is found to be predominant, and the value of meridional heat transport consequently falls within the low estimates. We notice that the meridional heat balance is sensitive to the position of the Confluence. When this region occurs too far south, the amount of IW contributing to the return flow of the overturning cell is reduced. Prognostic simulations forced by seasonal winds and heat fluxes are studied to quantify the impact of wind forcing on the circulation in the South Atlantic. Particular attention is focused on meridional transports at 30°S. Analysis of the mean annual circulation confirms that the upper branch of the meridional circulation is predominantly composed of IW (9 Sv), rather than TW (5.3 Sv). The mean transport of the lower branch is 16 Sv, in agreement with recent estimates by Schlitzer (1996). The annual meridional heat transport (0.29 PW) is still within the low estimates, but agrees well with other estimates that give a dominant role to IW (Rintoul, 1991). Original results also concern the variability of the upper branch of the meridional circulation. It is shown that the wind creates seasonal variability in the Subtropical Gyre, which has a marked impact on the water mass balance in the South Atlantic. In winter, a large convergence to the north of the Subtropical Gyre (27°S) reduces the northward flow of IW, whereas stronger Ekman pumping favors an equatorward transport of TW. In summer, this convergence disappears and a larger transport of IW is allowed. Thus a more complex scheme is proposed for the meridional circulation, in which local wind forcing in the South Atlantic Basin has a significant role in preconditioning the surface waters of the global overturning cell.

The Numerical Studies Program for the Atmospheric General Circulation Experiment (AGCE) for Spacelab Flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fowlis, W. W. (Editor); Davis, M. H. (Editor)

1981-01-01

The atmospheric general circulation experiment (AGCE) numerical design for Spacelab flights was studied. A spherical baroclinic flow experiment which models the large scale circulations of the Earth's atmosphere was proposed. Gravity is simulated by a radial dielectric body force. The major objective of the AGCE is to study nonlinear baroclinic wave flows in spherical geometry. Numerical models must be developed which accurately predict the basic axisymmetric states and the stability of nonlinear baroclinic wave flows. A three dimensional, fully nonlinear, numerical model and the AGCE based on the complete set of equations is required. Progress in the AGCE numerical design studies program is reported.

Can the Ocean's Heat Engine Control Horizontal Circulation? Insights From the Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruneau, Nicolas; Zika, Jan; Toumi, Ralf

2017-10-01

We investigate the role of the ocean's heat engine in setting horizontal circulation using a numerical model of the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea can be seen as a virtual laboratory—a compromise between realistic global models that are hampered by long equilibration times and idealized basin geometry models, which are not constrained by observations. We find that increases in vertical mixing drive stronger thermally direct overturning and consequent conversion of available potential to kinetic energy. Numerical solutions with water mass structures closest to observations overturn 0.02-0.04 × 106 m3/s (sverdrup) representing the first estimate of Caspian Sea overturning. Our results also suggest that the overturning is thermally forced increasing in intensity with increasing vertical diffusivity. Finally, stronger thermally direct overturning is associated with a stronger horizontal circulation in the Caspian Sea. This suggests that the ocean's heat engine can strongly impact broader horizontal circulations in the ocean.

A continuum model for pressure-flow relationship in human pulmonary circulation.

PubMed

Huang, Wei; Zhou, Qinlian; Gao, Jian; Yen, R T

2011-06-01

A continuum model was introduced to analyze the pressure-flow relationship for steady flow in human pulmonary circulation. The continuum approach was based on the principles of continuum mechanics in conjunction with detailed measurement of vascular geometry, vascular elasticity and blood rheology. The pulmonary arteries and veins were considered as elastic tubes and the "fifth-power law" was used to describe the pressure-flow relationship. For pulmonary capillaries, the "sheet-flow" theory was employed and the pressure-flow relationship was represented by the "fourth-power law". In this paper, the pressure-flow relationship for the whole pulmonary circulation and the longitudinal pressure distribution along the streamlines were studied. Our computed data showed general agreement with the experimental data for the normal subjects and the patients with mitral stenosis and chronic bronchitis in the literature. In conclusion, our continuum model can be used to predict the changes of steady flow in human pulmonary circulation.

Linear thermal circulator based on Coriolis forces.

PubMed

Li, Huanan; Kottos, Tsampikos

2015-02-01

We show that the presence of a Coriolis force in a rotating linear lattice imposes a nonreciprocal propagation of the phononic heat carriers. Using this effect we propose the concept of Coriolis linear thermal circulator which can control the circulation of a heat current. A simple model of three coupled harmonic masses on a rotating platform permits us to demonstrate giant circulating rectification effects for moderate values of the angular velocities of the platform.

SpaceX Dragon Air Circulation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hernandez, Brenda; Piatrovich, Siarhei; Prina, Mauro

2011-01-01

The Dragon capsule is a reusable vehicle being developed by Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) that will provide commercial cargo transportation to the International Space Station (ISS). Dragon is designed to be a habitable module while it is berthed to ISS. As such, the Dragon Environmental Control System (ECS) consists of pressure control and pressure equalization, air sampling, fire detection, illumination, and an air circulation system. The air circulation system prevents pockets of stagnant air in Dragon that can be hazardous to the ISS crew. In addition, through the inter-module duct, the air circulation system provides fresh air from ISS into Dragon. To utilize the maximum volume of Dragon for cargo packaging, the Dragon ECS air circulation system is designed around cargo rack optimization. At the same time, the air circulation system is designed to meet the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) inter-module and intra-module ventilation requirements and acoustic requirements. A flight like configuration of the Dragon capsule including the air circulation system was recently assembled for testing to assess the design for inter-module and intra-module ventilation and acoustics. The testing included the Dragon capsule, and flight configuration in the pressure section with cargo racks, lockers, all of the air circulation components, and acoustic treatment. The air circulation test was also used to verify the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the Dragon capsule. The CFD model included the same Dragon internal geometry that was assembled for the test. This paper will describe the Dragon air circulation system design which has been verified by testing the system and with CFD analysis.

Validation of the BASALT model for simulating off-axis hydrothermal circulation in oceanic crust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, Navah X.; Archer, David; Abbot, Dorian S.

2017-08-01

Fluid recharge and discharge between the deep ocean and the porous upper layer of off-axis oceanic crust tends to concentrate in small volumes of rock, such as seamounts and fractures, that are unimpeded by low-permeability sediments. Basement structure, sediment burial, heat flow, and other regional characteristics of off-axis hydrothermal systems appear to produce considerable diversity of circulation behaviors. Circulation of seawater and seawater-derived fluids controls the extent of fluid-rock interaction, resulting in significant geochemical impacts. However, the primary regional characteristics that control how seawater is distributed within upper oceanic crust are still poorly understood. In this paper we present the details of the two-dimensional (2-D) BASALT (Basement Activity Simulated At Low Temperatures) numerical model of heat and fluid transport in an off-axis hydrothermal system. This model is designed to simulate a wide range of conditions in order to explore the dominant controls on circulation. We validate the BASALT model's ability to reproduce observations by configuring it to represent a thoroughly studied transect of the Juan de Fuca Ridge eastern flank. The results demonstrate that including series of narrow, ridge-parallel fractures as subgrid features produces a realistic circulation scenario at the validation site. In future projects, a full reactive transport version of the validated BASALT model will be used to explore geochemical fluxes in a variety of off-axis hydrothermal environments.

The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.

2013-01-01

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.

Uncertainties in Carbon Dioxide Radiative Forcing in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M.-H.; Potter, G. L.; Gates, W. L.; Taylor, K. E.; Barker, H. W.; Colman, R. A.; Fraser, J. R.; McAvaney, B. J.; Dazlich, D. A.;

Do Coupled Climate Models Correctly SImulate the Upward Branch of the Deept Ocean Global Conveyor?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarmiento, Jorge L; Downes, Stephanie; Bianchi, Daniele

The large-scale meridional overturning circulation (MOC) connects the deep ocean, a major reservoir of carbon, to the other components of the climate system and must therefore be accurately represented in Earth System Models. Our project aims to address the specific question of the pathways and mechanisms controlling the upwelling branch of the MOC, a subject of significant disagreement between models and observational syntheses, and among general circulation models. Observations of these pathways are limited, particularly in regions of complex hydrography such as the Southern Ocean. As such, we rely on models to examine theories of the overturning circulation, both physicallymore » and biogeochemically. This grant focused on a particular aspect of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) where there is currently significant disagreement between models and observationally based analyses of the MOC, and amongst general circulation models. In particular, the research focused on addressing the following questions: 1. Where does the deep water that sinks in the polar regions rise to the surface? 2. What processes are responsible for this rise? 3. Do state-of-the-art coupled GCMs capture these processes? Our research had three key components: observational synthesis, model development and model analysis. In this final report we outline the key results from these areas of research for the 2007 to 2012 grant period. The research described here was carried out primarily by graduate student, Daniele Bianchi (now a Postdoc at McGill University, Canada), and Postdoc Stephanie Downes (now a Research Fellow at The Australian national University, Australia). Additional support was provided for programmers Jennifer Simeon as well as Rick Slater.« less

Multi-scale modeling of Puget Sound using an unstructured-grid coastal ocean model: from tide flats to estuaries and coastal waters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang

2010-11-19

Water circulation in Puget Sound, a large complex estuary system in the Pacific Northwest coastal ocean of the United States, is governed by multiple spatially and temporally varying forcings from tides, atmosphere (wind, heating/cooling, precipitation/evaporation, pressure), and river inflows. In addition, the hydrodynamic response is affected strongly by geomorphic features, such as fjord-like bathymetry and complex shoreline features, resulting in many distinguishing characteristics in its main and sub-basins. To better understand the details of circulation features in Puget Sound and to assist with proposed nearshore restoration actions for improving water quality and the ecological health of Puget Sound, a high-resolutionmore » (around 50 m in estuaries and tide flats) hydrodynamic model for the entire Puget Sound was needed. Here, a threedimensional circulation model of Puget Sound using an unstructured-grid finite volume coastal ocean model is presented. The model was constructed with sufficient resolution in the nearshore region to address the complex coastline, multi-tidal channels, and tide flats. Model open boundaries were extended to the entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the northern end of the Strait of Georgia to account for the influences of ocean water intrusion from the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Fraser River plume from the Strait of Georgia, respectively. Comparisons of model results, observed data, and associated error statistics for tidal elevation, velocity, temperature, and salinity indicate that the model is capable of simulating the general circulation patterns on the scale of a large estuarine system as well as detailed hydrodynamics in the nearshore tide flats. Tidal characteristics, temperature/salinity stratification, mean circulation, and river plumes in estuaries with tide flats are discussed.« less

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends.

PubMed

Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

2014-12-01

Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient simulations we diagnose decreasing tropospheric N2O concentrations, increased transport of N2O from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and increasing stratospheric decay of N2O leading to a reduction in atmospheric lifetime of N2O, in dependency to climate change evolution.

Circulating a Good Service Model at Its Core: Circulation!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hernandez, Edmee Sofia; Germain, Carol Anne, Ed.

2009-01-01

Circulation is the library's tireless foot soldier: it serves as the front gate to the library's services and resources. This service point is where most patrons enter and leave; and experience their first and last impressions--impressions that linger. In an age when academic libraries are facing meager budgets and declining usage statistics, this…

Dispensing with the DVD Circulation Dilemma

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellis, Mark

2008-01-01

Richmond Public Library (RPL) is a four-branch suburban library with the highest per capita circulation of any comparable library in Canada. While DVDs naturally fit into RPL's emphasis on popular material, circulating them using the standard model proved problematic: Long hold queues built up, DVDs idled on the hold shelves, and the circulation…

A comparison of two- and three-dimensional tracer transport within a stratospheric circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneider, H.-R.; Geller, M. A.

1985-01-01

Use of the residual circulation for stratospheric tracer transport has been compared to a fully three-dimensional calculation. The wind fields used in this study were obtained from a global, semispectral, primitive equation model, extending from 10 to 100 km in altitude. Comparisons were done with a passive tracer and an ozone-like substance over a two-month period corresponding to a Northern Hemisphere winter. It was found that the use of the residual circulation can lead to errors in the tracer concentrations of about a factor of 2. The error is made up of two components. One is fluctuating with a period of approximately one month and reflects directly the wave transience that occurs on that time-scale. The second part is increasing steadily over the integration period and results from an overestimate of the vertical transport by the residual circulation. Furthermore, the equatorward and upward mixing that occurs with transport by the three-dimensional circulation at low latitudes is not well reproduced when the residual circulation is used.

Wind effect on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation via sea ice and vertical diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Haijun; Wang, Kun; Dai, Haijin; Wang, Yuxing; Li, Qing

2016-06-01

Effects of wind and fresh water on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated using a fully coupled climate model. The AMOC can change significantly when perturbed by either wind stress or freshwater flux in the North Atlantic. This study focuses on wind stress effect. Our model results show that the wind forcing is crucial in maintaining the AMOC. Reducing wind forcing over the ocean can cause immediately weakening of the vertical salinity diffusion and convection in the mid-high latitudes Atlantic, resulting in an enhancement of vertical salinity stratification that restrains the deep water formation there, triggering a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. As the thermohaline circulation weakens, the sea ice expands southward and melts, providing the upper ocean with fresh water that weakens the thermohaline circulation further. The wind perturbation experiments suggest a positive feedback between sea-ice and thermohaline circulation strength, which can eventually result in a complete shutdown of the AMOC. This study also suggests that sea-ice variability may be also important to the natural AMOC variability on decadal and longer timescales.

Changes in present and future circulation types frequency in northwest Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Lorenzo, María N; Ramos, Alexandre M; Taboada, Juan J; Gimeno, Luis

2011-01-21

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4(th) assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types.

Changes in Present and Future Circulation Types Frequency in Northwest Iberian Peninsula

PubMed Central

Lorenzo, María N.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Taboada, Juan J.; Gimeno, Luis

2011-01-01

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types. PMID:21283703

Using the Gamma-Poisson Model to Predict Library Circulations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burrell, Quentin L.

1990-01-01

Argues that the gamma mixture of Poisson processes, for all its perceived defects, can be used to make predictions regarding future library book circulations of a quality adequate for general management requirements. The use of the model is extensively illustrated with data from two academic libraries. (Nine references) (CLB)

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscal...

An integrated coronary circulation teaching model.

PubMed

van Oostrom, Johannes H; Kentgens, S; Beneken, J E W; Gravenstein, J S

2006-08-01

We present in this paper a model of the coronary circulation. This model is integrated with a model of the systemic circulation, and contains models for oxygen supply and demand. Three compartments are created: one for the right ventricle, one for the epicardial segment of the left ventricle and one for the endo-cardial segment of the left ventricle. The model was implemented in the Java programming language and contains a visual representation of the left and right ventricles which beat in real time. Color shading is used to represent the partial pressure of oxygen in the segments. A multitude of model parameters can be changed to simulate different scenarios. The output of the model was characterized under different conditions and the results verified by clinicians. Educational models of human physiology can be very useful for a more in depth understanding of complete physiologic systems. The models must however have enough complexity, interaction with other systems, and realism to show the concepts being taught.

Adaptation of a general circulation model to ocean dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Rees, T. H.; Woodbury, G. E.

1976-01-01

A primitive-variable general circulation model of the ocean was formulated in which fast external gravity waves are suppressed with rigid-lid surface constraint pressires which also provide a means for simulating the effects of large-scale free-surface topography. The surface pressure method is simpler to apply than the conventional stream function models, and the resulting model can be applied to both global ocean and limited region situations. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are also presented.

On a sparse pressure-flow rate condensation of rigid circulation models

PubMed Central

Schiavazzi, D. E.; Hsia, T. Y.; Marsden, A. L.

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular simulation has shown potential value in clinical decision-making, providing a framework to assess changes in hemodynamics produced by physiological and surgical alterations. State-of-the-art predictions are provided by deterministic multiscale numerical approaches coupling 3D finite element Navier Stokes simulations to lumped parameter circulation models governed by ODEs. Development of next-generation stochastic multiscale models whose parameters can be learned from available clinical data under uncertainty constitutes a research challenge made more difficult by the high computational cost typically associated with the solution of these models. We present a methodology for constructing reduced representations that condense the behavior of 3D anatomical models using outlet pressure-flow polynomial surrogates, based on multiscale model solutions spanning several heart cycles. Relevance vector machine regression is compared with maximum likelihood estimation, showing that sparse pressure/flow rate approximations offer superior performance in producing working surrogate models to be included in lumped circulation networks. Sensitivities of outlets flow rates are also quantified through a Sobol’ decomposition of their total variance encoded in the orthogonal polynomial expansion. Finally, we show that augmented lumped parameter models including the proposed surrogates accurately reproduce the response of multiscale models they were derived from. In particular, results are presented for models of the coronary circulation with closed loop boundary conditions and the abdominal aorta with open loop boundary conditions. PMID:26671219

Effect of Vortex Circulation on Injectant from a Single Film-Cooling Hole and a Row of Film-Cooling Holes in a Turbulent Boundary Layer. Part 1. Injection Beneath the Vortex Downwash

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

coefficients vortex circulation, symbols used in vorticity plots representing circulation values derived from different vortex core models injection...derived from different vortex core models dimensionless core size parameter: t wice the a verage core radius divided by t h e i n jection hole...Wall Heating, xjd=109.2, m=0.5, Single Injection Hole Vortex w, Temp. Difference Range (.5- 2.5) degree s 91. Local Temperature Distribution

Mixing parametrizations for ocean climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Anatoly; Moshonkin, Sergey; Diansky, Nikolay; Zalesny, Vladimir

2016-04-01

The algorithm is presented of splitting the total evolutionary equations for the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and turbulence dissipation frequency (TDF), which is used to parameterize the viscosity and diffusion coefficients in ocean circulation models. The turbulence model equations are split into the stages of transport-diffusion and generation-dissipation. For the generation-dissipation stage, the following schemes are implemented: the explicit-implicit numerical scheme, analytical solution and the asymptotic behavior of the analytical solutions. The experiments were performed with different mixing parameterizations for the modelling of Arctic and the Atlantic climate decadal variability with the eddy-permitting circulation model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) using vertical grid refinement in the zone of fully developed turbulence. The proposed model with the split equations for turbulence characteristics is similar to the contemporary differential turbulence models, concerning the physical formulations. At the same time, its algorithm has high enough computational efficiency. Parameterizations with using the split turbulence model make it possible to obtain more adequate structure of temperature and salinity at decadal timescales, compared to the simpler Pacanowski-Philander (PP) turbulence parameterization. Parameterizations with using analytical solution or numerical scheme at the generation-dissipation step of the turbulence model leads to better representation of ocean climate than the faster parameterization using the asymptotic behavior of the analytical solution. At the same time, the computational efficiency left almost unchanged relative to the simple PP parameterization. Usage of PP parametrization in the circulation model leads to realistic simulation of density and circulation with violation of T,S-relationships. This error is majorly avoided with using the proposed parameterizations containing the split turbulence model. The high sensitivity of the eddy-permitting circulation model to the definition of mixing is revealed, which is associated with significant changes of density fields in the upper baroclinic ocean layer over the total considered area. For instance, usage of the turbulence parameterization instead of PP algorithm leads to increasing circulation velocity in the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current, as well as the subpolar cyclonic gyre in the North Atlantic and Beaufort Gyre in the Arctic basin are reproduced more realistically. Consideration of the Prandtl number as a function of the Richardson number significantly increases the modelling quality. The research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant № 16-05-00534) and the Council on the Russian Federation President Grants (grant № MK-3241.2015.5)

IAS Mesoscale Surface Circulation Observed Through Satellite Altimetry and its Influence in a Small Scale, Coastal Domain, Studied with a ROMS Model of the Cariaco Basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvera-Azcarate, A.; Barth, A.; Virmani, J. I.; Weisberg, R. H.

2007-05-01

The Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) surface circulation is characterized by large scale currents. The Caribbean current, which originates in the Lesser Antilles, travels westwards through the Caribbean Sea and eastern Mexico and passes through the Gulf of Mexico to finally form the Gulf Stream. This complex system of currents is also characterized by a high mesoscale variability, such as eddies and meanders. The objectives of this work are twofold: first, the multi-scale surface circulation of the IAS is described using satellite altimetry. The topographic influence of the different basins forming the IAS, the characteristic time and spatial scales, and the time variability of the surface circulation will be addressed. The second objective is to analyze the influence of this large scale circulation on a small scale coastal domain with a ROMS-based model of the Cariaco basin (Venezuela). Cariaco is a deep (1400 m), semi-enclosed basin connected to the open ocean by two shallow channels (Tortuga and Centinela Channels). Its connection with the open sea, and therefore the ventilation of the basin, occurs in the surface layers. The Cariaco ROMS model will be used to study the exchanges of mass, heat and salt through the channels. A 1/60 degree ROMS model nested in the global 1/12 degree HYCOM model from the Naval Research Laboratory will be used for this study. In addition, a series of observations (satellite altimetry and in situ temperature, salinity and velocity data), will be used to assess the influence of the Caribbean circulation on the basin.

The Southern Ocean's role in ocean circulation and climate transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, A. F.; Stewart, A.; Hines, S.; Adkins, J. F.

2017-12-01

The ventilation of deep and intermediate density classes at the surface of the Southern Ocean impacts water mass modification and the air-sea exchange of heat and trace gases, which in turn influences the global overturning circulation and Earth's climate. Zonal variability occurs along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Antarctic margins related to flow-topography interactions, variations in surface boundary conditions, and exchange with northern basins. Information about these zonal variations, and their impact on mass and tracer transport, are suppressed when the overturning is depicted as a two-dimensional (depth-latitude) streamfunction. Here we present an idealized, multi-basin, time-dependent circulation model that applies residual circulation theory in the Southern Ocean and allows for zonal water mass transfer between different ocean basins. This model efficiently determines the temporal evolution of the ocean's stratification, ventilation and overturning strength in response to perturbations in the external forcing. With this model we explore the dynamics that lead to transitions in the circulation structure between multiple, isolated cells and a three-dimensional, "figure-of-eight," circulation in which traditional upper and lower cells are interleaved. The transient model is also used to support a mechanistic explanation of the hemispheric asymmetry and phase lag associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events during the last glacial period. In particular, the 200 year lag in southern hemisphere temperatures, following a perturbation in North Atlantic deep water formation, depends critically on the migration of Southern Ocean isopycnal outcropping in response to low-latitude stratification changes. Our results provide a self-consistent dynamical framework to explain various ocean overturning transitions that have occurred over the Earth's last 100,000 years, and motivate an exploration of these mechanisms in more sophisticated climate models.

Objective estimates of mantle 3He in the ocean and implications for constraining the deep ocean circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzer, Mark; DeVries, Timothy; Bianchi, Daniele; Newton, Robert; Schlosser, Peter; Winckler, Gisela

2017-01-01

Hydrothermal vents along the ocean's tectonic ridge systems inject superheated water and large amounts of dissolved metals that impact the deep ocean circulation and the oceanic cycling of trace metals. The hydrothermal fluid contains dissolved mantle helium that is enriched in 3He relative to the atmosphere, providing an isotopic tracer of the ocean's deep circulation and a marker of hydrothermal sources. This work investigates the potential for the 3He/4He isotope ratio to constrain the ocean's mantle 3He source and to provide constraints on the ocean's deep circulation. We use an ensemble of 11 data-assimilated steady-state ocean circulation models and a mantle helium source based on geographically varying sea-floor spreading rates. The global source distribution is partitioned into 6 regions, and the vertical profile and source amplitude of each region are varied independently to determine the optimal 3He source distribution that minimizes the mismatch between modeled and observed δ3He. In this way, we are able to fit the observed δ3He distribution to within a relative error of ∼15%, with a global 3He source that ranges from 640 to 850 mol yr-1, depending on circulation. The fit captures the vertical and interbasin gradients of the δ3He distribution very well and reproduces its jet-sheared saddle point in the deep equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates that the data-assimilated models have much greater fidelity to the deep ocean circulation than other coarse-resolution ocean models. Nonetheless, the modelled δ3He distributions still display some systematic biases, especially in the deep North Pacific where δ3He is overpredicted by our models, and in the southeastern tropical Pacific, where observed westward-spreading δ3He plumes are not well captured. Sources inferred by the data-assimilated transport with and without isopycnally aligned eddy diffusivity differ widely in the Southern Ocean, in spite of the ability to match the observed distributions of CFCs and radiocarbon for either eddy parameterization.

Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Seok-Woo; Han, Bo-Reum; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Kim, Seo-Yeon; Park, Rokjin; Abraham, N. Luke; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Archibald, Alexander T.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dameris, Martin; Deushi, Makoto; Dhomse, Sandip S.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Jöckel, Patrick; Kinnison, Douglas; Michou, Martine; Morgenstern, Olaf; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Oman, Luke D.; Plummer, David A.; Pozzer, Andrea; Revell, Laura E.; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Stone, Kane; Tilmes, Simone; Yamashita, Yousuke; Zeng, Guang

2018-05-01

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

A simple biosphere model (SiB) for use within general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, P. J.; Mintz, Y.; Sud, Y. C.; Dalcher, A.

1986-01-01

A simple realistic biosphere model for calculating the transfer of energy, mass and momentum between the atmosphere and the vegetated surface of the earth has been developed for use in atmospheric general circulation models. The vegetation in each terrestrial model grid is represented by an upper level, representing the perennial canopy of trees and shrubs, and a lower level, representing the annual cover of grasses and other heraceous species. The vegetation morphology and the physical and physiological properties of the vegetation layers determine such properties as: the reflection, transmission, absorption and emission of direct and diffuse radiation; the infiltration, drainage, and storage of the residual rainfall in the soil; and the control over the stomatal functioning. The model, with prescribed vegetation parameters and soil interactive soil moisture, can be used for prediction of the atmospheric circulation and precipitaion fields for short periods of up to a few weeks.

On the validation of a code and a turbulence model appropriate to circulation control airfoils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viegas, J. R.; Rubesin, M. W.; Maccormack, R. W.

1988-01-01

A computer code for calculating flow about a circulation control airfoil within a wind tunnel test section has been developed. This code is being validated for eventual use as an aid to design such airfoils. The concept of code validation being used is explained. The initial stages of the process have been accomplished. The present code has been applied to a low-subsonic, 2-D flow about a circulation control airfoil for which extensive data exist. Two basic turbulence models and variants thereof have been successfully introduced into the algorithm, the Baldwin-Lomax algebraic and the Jones-Launder two-equation models of turbulence. The variants include adding a history of the jet development for the algebraic model and adding streamwise curvature effects for both models. Numerical difficulties and difficulties in the validation process are discussed. Turbulence model and code improvements to proceed with the validation process are also discussed.

Simulation of the atmospheric thermal circulation of a martian volcano using a mesoscale numerical model.

PubMed

Rafkin, Scot C R; Sta Maria, Magdalena R V; Michaels, Timothy I

2002-10-17

Mesoscale (<100 km) atmospheric phenomena are ubiquitous on Mars, as revealed by Mars Orbiter Camera images. Numerical models provide an important means of investigating martian atmospheric dynamics, for which data availability is limited. But the resolution of general circulation models, which are traditionally used for such research, is not sufficient to resolve mesoscale phenomena. To provide better understanding of these relatively small-scale phenomena, mesoscale models have recently been introduced. Here we simulate the mesoscale spiral dust cloud observed over the caldera of the volcano Arsia Mons by using the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modelling System. Our simulation uses a hierarchy of nested models with grid sizes ranging from 240 km to 3 km, and reveals that the dust cloud is an indicator of a greater but optically thin thermal circulation that reaches heights of up to 30 km, and transports dust horizontally over thousands of kilometres.

Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J. P.; Boer, G. J.; Del Genio, A. D.

1990-01-01

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.

Integrated and spectral energetics of the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tenenbaum, J.

1981-01-01

Integrated and spectral error energetics of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) general circulation model are compared with observations for periods in January 1975, 1976, and 1977. For two cases the model shows significant skill in predicting integrated energetics quantities out to two weeks, and for all three cases, the integrated monthly mean energetics show qualitative improvements over previous versions of the model in eddy kinetic energy and barotropic conversions. Fundamental difficulties remain with leakage of energy to the stratospheric level. General circulation model spectral energetics predictions are compared with the corresponding observational spectra on a day by day basis. Eddy kinetic energy can be correct while significant errors occur in the kinetic energy of wavenumber three. Single wavenumber dominance in eddy kinetic energy and the correlation of spectral kinetic and potential energy are demonstrated.

Relationships between hormones and aggressive behavior in green anole lizards: an analysis using structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Yang, Eun-Jin; Wilczynski, Walter

2002-09-01

We investigated the relationship between aggressive behavior and circulating androgens in the context of agonistic social interaction and examined the effect of this interaction on the androgen-aggression relationship in response to a subsequent social challenge in male Anolis carolinensis lizards. Individuals comprising an aggressive encounter group were exposed to an aggressive conspecific male for 10 min per day during a 5-day encounter period, while controls were exposed to a neutral stimulus for the same period. On the sixth day, their responses to an intruder test were observed. At intervals, individuals were sacrificed to monitor plasma androgen levels. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test three a priori interaction models of the relationship between social stimulus, aggressive behavior, and androgen. Model 1 posits that exposure to a social stimulus influences androgen and aggressive behavior independently. In Model 2, a social stimulus triggers aggressive behavior, which in turn increases circulating levels of androgen. In Model 3, exposure to a social stimulus influences circulating androgen levels, which in turn triggers aggressive behavior. During the 5 days of the encounter period, circulating testosterone (T) levels of the aggressive encounter group followed the same pattern as their aggressive behavioral responses, while the control group did not show significant changes in their aggressive behavior or T level. Our SEM results supported Model 2. A means analysis showed that during the intruder test, animals with 5 days of aggressive encounters showed more aggressive responses than did control animals, while their circulating androgen levels did not differ. This further supports Model 2, suggesting that an animal's own aggressive behavior may trigger increases in levels of plasma androgen. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science (USA)

Timeslice experiments for understanding regional climate projections: applications to the tropical hydrological cycle and European winter circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadwick, Robin; Douville, Hervé; Skinner, Christopher B.

2017-11-01

A set of atmosphere-only timeslice experiments are described, designed to examine the processes that cause regional climate change and inter-model uncertainty in coupled climate model responses to CO_2 forcing. The timeslice experiments are able to reproduce the pattern of regional climate change in the coupled models, and are applied here to two cases where inter-model uncertainty in future projections is large: the tropical hydrological cycle, and European winter circulation. In tropical forest regions, the plant physiological effect is the largest cause of hydrological cycle change in the two models that represent this process. This suggests that the CMIP5 ensemble mean may be underestimating the magnitude of water cycle change in these regions, due to the inclusion of models without the plant effect. SST pattern change is the dominant cause of precipitation and circulation change over the tropical oceans, and also appears to contribute to inter-model uncertainty in precipitation change over tropical land regions. Over Europe and the North Atlantic, uniform SST increases drive a poleward shift of the storm-track. However this does not consistently translate into an overall polewards storm-track shift, due to large circulation responses to SST pattern change, which varies across the models. Coupled model SST biases influence regional rainfall projections in regions such as the Maritime Continent, and so projections in these regions should be treated with caution.

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poutou, E.; Krinner, G.; Genthon, C.

2002-12-01

Impact of lakes and wetlands on present and future boreal climate The role of lakes and wetlands in present-day high latitude climate is quantified using a general circulation model of the atmosphere. The atmospheric model includes a lake module which is presented and validated. Seasonal and spatial wetland distribution is calculated as a function of the hydrological budget of the wetlands themselves and of continental soil whose runoff feeds them. Wetland extent is simulated and discussed both in simulations forced by observed climate and in general circulation model simulations. In off-line simulations, forced by ECMWF reanalyses, the lake model simulates correctly observed lake ice durations, while the wetland extent is somewhat underestimated in the boreal regions. Coupled to the general circulation model, the lake model yields satisfying ice durations, although the climate model biases have impacts on the modeled lake ice conditions. Boreal wetland extents are overestimated in the general circulation model as simulated precipitation is too high. The impact of inundated surfaces on the simulated climate is strongest in summer when these surfaces are ice-free. Wetlands seem to play a more important role than lakes in cooling the boreal regions in summer and in humidifying the atmosphere. The role of lakes and wetlands in future climate change is evaluated by analyzing simulations of present and future climate with and without prescribed inland water bodies.

U. S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

2008). There are three major contributors to the strength of the Gulf Stream, (1) the wind forcing, (2) the Atlantic meridional overturning ...Smith, 2007. Resolution convergence and sensitivity studies with North Atlantic circulation models. Part I. The western boundary current system...σ-z coordinates, and (3) a baroclinic version of ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), the latter an unstructured grid model for baroclinic coastal

Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation, and global-scale circulation patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vincent, Dayton G.; Robertson, Franklin

1993-01-01

The research sponsored by this grant is a continuation and an extension of the work conducted under a previous contract, 'South Pacific Convergence Zone and Global-Scale Circulations'. In the prior work, we conducted a detailed investigation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), and documented many of its significant features and characteristics. We also conducted studies of its interaction with global-scale circulation features through the use of both observational and modeling studies. The latter was accomplished toward the end of the contract when Dr. James Hurrell, then a Ph.D. candidate, successfully ported the NASA GLA general circulation model (GCM) to Purdue University. In our present grant, we have expanded our previous research to include studies of other convectively-driven circulation systems in the tropics besides the SPCZ. Furthermore, we have continued to examine the relationship between these convective systems and global-scale circulation patterns. Our recent research efforts have focused on three objectives: (1) determining the periodicity of large-scale bands of organized convection in the tropics, primarily synoptic to intraseasonal time scales in the Southern Hemisphere; (2) examining the relative importance of tropical versus mid-latitude forcing for Southern Hemisphere summertime subtropical jets, particularly over the Pacific Ocean; and (3) estimating tropical precipitation, especially over oceans, using observational and budget methods. A summary list of our most significant accomplishments in the past year is given.

Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 1: Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model, version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Takacs, Lawrence L.; Molod, Andrea; Wang, Tina

1994-01-01

This technical report documents Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model (GCM). The GEOS-1 GCM is being used by NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) to produce multiyear data sets for climate research. This report provides a documentation of the model components used in the GEOS-1 GCM, a complete description of model diagnostics available, and a User's Guide to facilitate GEOS-1 GCM experiments.

Combination of TOPEX/POSEIDON Data with a Hydrographic Inversion for Determination of the Oceanic General Circulation and its Relation to Geoid Accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganachaud, Alexandre; Wunsch, Carl; Kim, Myung-Chan; Tapley, Byron

1997-01-01

A global estimate of the absolute oceanic general circulation from a geostrophic inversion of in situ hydrographic data is tested against and then combined with an estimate obtained from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric data and a geoid model computed using the JGM-3 gravity-field solution. Within the quantitative uncertainties of both the hydrographic inversion and the geoid estimate, the two estimates derived by very different methods are consistent. When the in situ inversion is combined with the altimetry/geoid scheme using a recursive inverse procedure, a new solution, fully consistent with both hydrography and altimetry, is found. There is, however, little reduction in the uncertainties of the calculated ocean circulation and its mass and heat fluxes because the best available geoid estimate remains noisy relative to the purely oceanographic inferences. The conclusion drawn from this is that the comparatively large errors present in the existing geoid models now limit the ability of satellite altimeter data to improve directly the general ocean circulation models derived from in situ measurements. Because improvements in the geoid could be realized through a dedicated spaceborne gravity recovery mission, the impact of hypothetical much better, future geoid estimates on the circulation uncertainty is also quantified, showing significant hypothetical reductions in the uncertainties of oceanic transport calculations. Full ocean general circulation models could better exploit both existing oceanographic data and future gravity-mission data, but their present use is severely limited by the inability to quantify their error budgets.

Cloud-radiative effects on implied oceanic energy transport as simulated by atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gleckler, P. J.; Randall, D. A.; Boer, G.; Colman, R.; Dix, M.; Galin, V.; Helfand, M.; Kiehl, J.; Kitoh, A.; Lau, W.

1995-01-01

This paper summarizes the ocean surface net energy flux simulated by fifteen atmospheric general circulation models constrained by realistically-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. In general, the simulated energy fluxes are within the very large observational uncertainties. However, the annual mean oceanic meridional heat transport that would be required to balance the simulated surface fluxes is shown to be critically sensitive to the radiative effects of clouds, to the extent that even the sign of the Southern Hemisphere ocean heat transport can be affected by the errors in simulated cloud-radiation interactions. It is suggested that improved treatment of cloud radiative effects should help in the development of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.

On the design of an interactive biosphere for the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mintz, Y.; Sellers, P. J.; Willmott, C. J.

1983-01-01

Improving the realism and accuracy of the GLAS general circulation model (by adding an interactive biosphere that will simulate the transfers of latent and sensible heat from land surface to atmosphere as functions of the atmospheric conditions and the morphology and physiology of the vegetation) is proposed.

A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.

2002-01-01

Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

Potential effects of climate change on ground water in Lansing, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Croley, T.E.; Luukkonen, C.L.

2003-01-01

Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.

OCEAN CIRCULATION. Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises.

PubMed

Srokosz, M A; Bryden, H L

2015-06-19

The importance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) heat transport for climate is well acknowledged. Climate models predict that the AMOC will slow down under global warming, with substantial impacts, but measurements of ocean circulation have been inadequate to evaluate these predictions. Observations over the past decade have changed that situation, providing a detailed picture of variations in the AMOC. These observations reveal a surprising degree of AMOC variability in terms of the intraannual range, the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle, the interannual changes in strength affecting the ocean heat content, and the decline of the AMOC over the decade, both of the latter two exceeding the variations seen in climate models. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Diffuse fluorescence fiber probe for in vivo detection of circulating cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pera, Vivian; Tan, Xuefei; Runnels, Judith; Sardesai, Neha; Lin, Charles P.; Niedre, Mark

2017-03-01

There has been significant recent interest in the development of technologies for enumeration of rare circulating cells directly in the bloodstream in many areas of research, for example, in small animal models of circulating tumor cell dissemination during cancer metastasis. We describe a fiber-based optical probe that allows fluorescence detection of labeled circulating cells in vivo in a diffuse reflectance configuration. We validated this probe in a tissue-mimicking flow phantom model in vitro and in nude mice injected with fluorescently labeled multiple myeloma cells in vivo. Compared to our previous work, this design yields an improvement in detection signal-to-noise ratio of 10 dB, virtually eliminates problematic motion artifacts due to mouse breathing, and potentially allows operation in larger animals and limbs.

Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotstayn, L. D.; Jeffrey, S. J.; Collier, M. A.; Dravitzki, S. M.; Hirst, A. C.; Syktus, J. I.; Wong, K. K.

2012-07-01

We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the drivers of trends in summer rainfall and circulation in the vicinity of northern Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we perform a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). To investigate the roles of different forcing agents, we also perform multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951-2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO_AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO_AA. CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong summer rainfall decrease over north-western Australia (NWA) in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weakly positive (but insignificant) during 1951-2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol-induced increase. Observations show a significant increase of summer rainfall over NWA during the last few decades. The large magnitude of the observed NWA rainfall trend is not captured by 440 unforced 60-yr trends calculated from a 500-yr pre-industrial control run, even though the model's decadal variability appears to be realistic. This suggests that the observed trend includes a forced component, despite the fact that the model does not simulate the magnitude of the observed rainfall increase in response to "all forcings" (HIST). We investigate the mechanism of simulated and observed NWA rainfall changes by exploring changes in circulation over the Indo-Pacific region. The key circulation feature associated with the rainfall increase in reanalyses is a lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA, which enhances the monsoonal flow. The model shows an aerosol-induced cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA, whereas GHGAS shows an anticyclonic circulation trend. This explains why the aerosol-induced effect is an increase of rainfall over NWA, and the greenhouse gas-induced effect is of opposite sign. Possible explanations for the cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation trend in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS) involve changes in the Walker circulation or the local Hadley circulation. In either case, a plausible atmospheric mechanism is that the circulation anomaly is a Rossby wave response to convective heating anomalies south of the Equator. We also discuss the possible role of air-sea interactions, e.g. an increase (decrease) of sea-surface temperatures off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS). Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms and the extent to which these are model-dependent. In summary, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols may have "masked" greenhouse gas-induced changes in rainfall over NWA and in circulation over the wider Indo-Pacific region. Due to the opposing effects of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, future trends may be very different from trends observed over the last few decades.

Simulating effects of highway embankments on estuarine circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Jonathan K.; Schaffranek, Raymond W.; Baltzer, Robert A.

1994-01-01

A two-dimensional depth-averaged, finite-difference, numerical model was used to simulate tidal circulation and mass transport in the Port Royal Sound. South Carolina, estuarine system. The purpose of the study was to demonstrate the utility of the Surface-Water. Integrated. Flow and Transport model (SWIFT2D) for evaluating changes in circulation patterns and mass transport caused by highway-crossing embankments. A model of subregion of Port Royal Sound including the highway crossings and having a grid size of 61 m (200ft) was derived from a 183-m (600-ft) model of the entire Port Royal Sound estuarine system. The 183-m model was used to compute boundary-value data for the 61-m submodel, which was then used to simulate flow conditions with and without the highway embankments in place. The numerical simulations show that, with the highway embankment in place, mass transport between the Broad River and Battery Creek is reduced and mass transport between the Beaufort River and Battery Creek is increased. The net result is that mass transport into and out of upper Battery Creek is reduced. The presence of the embankments also alters circulation patterns within Battery Creek.

Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

2017-10-01

Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Design of Complex Systems to Achieve Passive Safety: Natural Circulation Cooling of Liquid Salt Pebble Bed Reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarlat, Raluca Olga

This dissertation treats system design, modeling of transient system response, and characterization of individual phenomena and demonstrates a framework for integration of these three activities early in the design process of a complex engineered system. A system analysis framework for prioritization of experiments, modeling, and development of detailed design is proposed. Two fundamental topics in thermal-hydraulics are discussed, which illustrate the integration of modeling and experimentation with nuclear reactor design and safety analysis: thermal-hydraulic modeling of heat generating pebble bed cores, and scaled experiments for natural circulation heat removal with Boussinesq liquids. The case studies used in this dissertation are derived from the design and safety analysis of a pebble bed fluoride salt cooled high temperature nuclear reactor (PB-FHR), currently under development in the United States at the university and national laboratories level. In the context of the phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) methodology, new tools and approaches are proposed and demonstrated here, which are specifically relevant to technology in the early stages of development, and to analysis of passive safety features. A system decomposition approach is proposed. Definition of system functional requirements complements identification and compilation of the current knowledge base for the behavior of the system. Two new graphical tools are developed for ranking of phenomena importance: a phenomena ranking map, and a phenomena identification and ranking matrix (PIRM). The functional requirements established through this methodology were used for the design and optimization of the reactor core, and for the transient analysis and design of the passive natural circulation driven decay heat removal system for the PB-FHR. A numerical modeling approach for heat-generating porous media, with multi-dimensional fluid flow is presented. The application of this modeling approach to the PB-FHR annular pebble bed core cooled by fluoride salt mixtures generated a model that is called Pod. Pod. was used to show the resilience of the PB-FHR core to generation of hot spots or cold spots, due to the effect of buoyancy on the flow and temperature distribution in the packed bed. Pod. was used to investigate the PB-FHR response to ATWS transients. Based on the functional requirements for the core, Pod. was used to generate an optimized design of the flow distribution in the core. An analysis of natural circulation loops cooled by single-phase Boussinesq fluids is presented here, in the context of reactor design that relies on natural circulation decay heat removal, and design of scaled experiments. The scaling arguments are established for a transient natural circulation loop, for loops that have long fluid residence time, and negligible contribution of fluid inertia to the momentum equation. The design of integral effects tests for the loss of forced circulation (LOFC) for PB-FHR is discussed. The special case of natural circulation decay heat removal from a pebble bed reactor was analyzed. A way to define the Reynolds number in a multi-dimensional pebble bed was identified. The scaling methodology for replicating pebble bed friction losses using an electrically resistance heated annular pipe and a needle valve was developed. The thermophysical properties of liquid fluoride salts lead to design of systems with low flow velocities, and hence long fluid residence times. A comparison among liquid coolants for the performance of steady state natural circulation heat removal from a pebble bed was performed. Transient natural circulation experimental data with simulant fluids for fluoride salts is given here. The low flow velocity and the relatively high viscosity of the fluoride salts lead to low Reynolds number flows, and a low Reynolds number in conjunction with a sufficiently high coefficient of thermal expansion makes the system susceptible to local buoyancy effects Experiments indicate that slow exchange of stagnant fluid in static legs can play a significant role in the transient response of natural circulation loops. The effect of non-linear temperature profiles on the hot or cold legs or other segments of the flow loop, which may develop during transient scenarios, should be considered when modeling the performance of natural circulation loops. The data provided here can be used for validation of the application of thermal-hydraulic systems codes to the modeling of heat removal by natural circulation with liquid fluoride salts and its simulant fluids.

Quantifying the effect of mixing on the mean age of air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietmüller, Simone; Eichinger, Roland; Garny, Hella; Birner, Thomas; Boenisch, Harald; Pitari, Giovanni; Mancini, Eva; Visioni, Daniele; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Rozanov, Eugene; Plummer, David A.; Scinocca, John; Jöckel, Patrick; Oman, Luke; Deushi, Makoto; Kiyotaka, Shibata; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando; Morgenstern, Olaf; Zeng, Guang; Stone, Kane Adam; Schofield, Robyn

2018-05-01

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA.

High-Reynolds Number Circulation Control Testing in the National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milholen, William E., II; Jones, Gregory S.; Chan, David T.; Goodliff, Scott L.

2012-01-01

A new capability to test active flow control concepts and propulsion simulations at high Reynolds numbers in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center is being developed. The first active flow control experiment was completed using the new FAST-MAC semi-span model to study Reynolds number scaling effects for several circulation control concepts. Testing was conducted over a wide range of Mach numbers, up to chord Reynolds numbers of 30 million. The model was equipped with four onboard flow control valves allowing independent control of the circulation control plenums, which were directed over a 15% chord simple-hinged flap. Preliminary analysis of the uncorrected lift data showed that the circulation control increased the low-speed maximum lift coefficient by 33%. At transonic speeds, the circulation control was capable of positively altering the shockwave pattern on the upper wing surface and reducing flow separation. Furthermore, application of the technique to only the outboard portion of the wing demonstrated the feasibility of a pneumatic based roll control capability.

A case study of sea breeze circulation at Thumba Coast through observations and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunhikrishnan, P. K.; Ramachandran, Radhika; Alappattu, Denny P.; Kiran Kumar, N. V. P.; Balasubrahamanyam, D.

2006-12-01

A case study of sea breeze circulation at a coastal region Thumba (8.5°N, 76.9°E) was carried out using Doppler Sodar, surface wind, temperature, humidity measurements and radiosonde ascents. The analysis of surface meteorological data showed that the onset of sea breeze on 12th April 2006 was at 0945 hrs. GPS sonde observation over sea at 1425 hrs and Radiosonde observation over land at 1730 showed a well developed sea breeze circulation over Thumba coast by afternoon hours. The vertical extent of sea breeze circulation was ~1000m over sea as well as on land. The Thermal Internal Boundary Layer (TIBL) depth associated with sea breeze circulation was about 400m at 8 km away from coast. The marine mixed layer height was ~500m about 12 km away from the coast. Numerical simulation of sea breeze was made using HRM (High Resolution Model) and compared the results with the observations.

Results of various studies made with the NCAR Thermospheric General Circulation Model (TGCM) (invited review)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, R. G.

1986-01-01

The NCAR thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM) has been used for a variety of thermospheric dynamic studies. It has also been used to compare model predictions with measurements made from various ground-based Fabry-Perot interferometer stations, incoherent scatter radar stations and the Dynamics Explorer satellites. The various input and output features of the model are described. These include the specification of solar EUV fluxes, and descriptions of empirical models to specify auroral particle precipitation, ion drag, and magnetospheric convection. Results are presented for solstice conditions giving the model perturbation temperature and circulation response to solar heating forcing alone and also with the inclusion of magnetospheric convections for two different dawn-dusk potential drops, 20 and 60 kV respectively. Results at two constant pressure levels Z =+1 at 300 km and Z= -4 at 120 km are presented for both the winter and summer polar cap regions. The circulation over the Northern Hemisphere polar cap in both the upper and lower thermosphere are presented along with a figure showing that the circulation is mainly a non-divergent irrotational flow responding to ion drag. The results of a study made on the Southern Hemisphere polar cap during October 1981 where Dynamics Explorer satellite measurements of winds, temperature and composition are compared to TGCM predictions are also presented. A diagnostic package that has been developed to analyze the balance of forces operating in the TGCM is presented next illustrating that in the F-region ion drag and pressure provide the main force balance and in the E-region ion drag, pressure and the coriolis forces provide the main balance. The TGCM prediction for the June 10, 1983 total solar eclipse are next presented showing a thermospheric disturbance following the path of totality. Finally, results are presented giving the global circulation, temperature and composition structure of the thermosphere for solar minimum conditions at equinox with 60 kV magnetospheric convection forcing at high latitudes.

Numerical simulation and prediction of coastal ocean circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, P.

1992-01-01

Numerical simulation and prediction of coastal ocean circulation have been conducted in three cases. 1. A process-oriented modeling study is conducted to study the interaction of a western boundary current (WBC) with coastal water, and its responses to upstream topographic irregularities. It is hypothesized that the interaction of propagating WBC frontal waves and topographic Rossby waves are responsible for upstream variability. 2. A simulation of meanders and eddies in the Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC) for February and March of 1988 is conducted with a newly developed nested dynamic interactive model. The model employs a coarse-grid, large domain to account formore » non-local forcing and a fine-grid nested domain to resolve meanders and eddies. The model is forced by wind stresses, heat fluxes and atmospheric pressure corresponding Feb/March of 1988, and accounts for river/fjord discharges, open ocean inflow and outflow, and M[sub 2] tides. The simulation reproduced fairly well the observed circulation, tides, and salinity features in the North Sea, Norwegian Trench and NCC region in the large domain and fairly realistic meanders and eddies in the NCC in the nested region. 3. A methodology for practical coastal ocean hindcast/forecast is developed, taking advantage of the disparate time scales of various forcing and considering wind to be the dominant factor in affecting density fluctuation in the time scale of 1 to 10 days. The density field obtained from a prognostic simulation is analyzed by the empirical orthogonal function method (EOF), and correlated with the wind; these information are then used to drive a circulation model which excludes the density calculation. The method is applied to hindcast the circulation in the New York Bight for spring and summer season of 1988. The hindcast fields compare favorably with the results obtained from the prognostic circulation model.« less

The circulation in the Levantine Basin as inferred from in-situ data and numerical modelling (1995-2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Radhakrishnan, Hari; Lardner, Robin; Hayes, Daniel; Gertman, Isaac; Menna, Milena; Poulain, Pierre-Marie

2014-05-01

The general anticlockwise circulation along the coastline of the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine Basin was first proposed by Nielsen in 1912. Half a century later the schematic of the circulation in the area was enriched with sub-basin flow structures. In late 1980s, a more detailed picture of the circulation composed of eddies, gyres and coastal-offshore jets was defined during the POEM cruises. In 2005, Millot and Taupier-Letage have used SST satellite imagery to argue for a simpler pattern similar to the one proposed almost a century ago. During the last decade, renewed in-situ multi-platforms investigations under the framework of CYBO, CYCLOPS, NEMED, GROOM, HaiSec and PERSEUS projects, as well the development of the operational ocean forecasts and hindcasts in the framework of the MFS, ECOOP, MERSEA and MyOcean projects, have made possible to obtain an improved, higher spatial and temporal resolution picture of the circulation in the area. After some years of scientific disputes on the circulation pattern of the region, the new in-situ data sets and the operational numerical simulations confirm the relevant POEM results. The existing POM-based Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting System (CYCOFOS), downscaling the MyOcean MFS, has been providing operational forecasts in the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine Basin region since early 2002. Recently, Radhakrishnan et al. (2012) parallelized the CYCOFOS hydrodynamic flow model using MPI to improve the accuracy of predictions while reducing the computational time. The parallel flow model is capable of modeling the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine Basin flow at a resolution of 500 m. The model was run in hindcast mode during which the innovations were computed using the historical data collected using gliders and cruises. Then, DD-OceanVar (D'Amore et al., 2013), a data assimilation tool based on 3DVAR developed by CMCC was used to compute the temperature and salinity field corrections. Numerical modeling results after the data assimilation will be presented.

Modeling the influence of river discharge on salt intrusion and residual circulation in Danshuei River estuary, Taiwan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, W.-C.; Chen, W.-B.; Cheng, R.T.; Hsu, M.-H.; Kuo, A.Y.

2007-01-01

A 3-D, time-dependent, baroclinic, hydrodynamic and salinity model was implemented and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system and the adjacent coastal sea in Taiwan. The model forcing functions consist of tidal elevations along the open boundaries and freshwater inflows from the main stream and major tributaries in the Danshuei River estuarine system. The bottom friction coefficient was adjusted to achieve model calibration and verification in model simulations of barotropic and baroclinic flows. The turbulent diffusivities were ascertained through comparison of simulated salinity time series with observations. The model simulation results are in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The validated model was then used to investigate the influence of freshwater discharge on residual current and salinity intrusion under different freshwater inflow condition in the Danshuei River estuarine system. The model results reveal that the characteristic two-layered estuarine circulation prevails most of the time at Kuan-Du station near the river mouth. Comparing the estuarine circulation under low- and mean flow conditions, the circulation strengthens during low-flow period and its strength decreases at moderate river discharge. The river discharge is a dominating factor affecting the salinity intrusion in the estuarine system. A correlation between the distance of salt intrusion and freshwater discharge has been established allowing prediction of salt intrusion for different inflow conditions. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating habitat volume of living resources using three-dimensional circulation and biogeochemical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Katharine A.; Schlag, Zachary; North, Elizabeth W.

2018-07-01

Coupled three-dimensional circulation and biogeochemical models predict changes in water properties that can be used to define fish habitat, including physiologically important parameters such as temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen. However, methods for calculating the volume of habitat defined by the intersection of multiple water properties are not well established for coupled three-dimensional models. The objectives of this research were to examine multiple methods for calculating habitat volume from three-dimensional model predictions, select the most robust approach, and provide an example application of the technique. Three methods were assessed: the "Step," "Ruled Surface", and "Pentahedron" methods, the latter of which was developed as part of this research. Results indicate that the analytical Pentahedron method is exact, computationally efficient, and preserves continuity in water properties between adjacent grid cells. As an example application, the Pentahedron method was implemented within the Habitat Volume Model (HabVol) using output from a circulation model with an Arakawa C-grid and physiological tolerances of juvenile striped bass (Morone saxatilis). This application demonstrates that the analytical Pentahedron method can be successfully applied to calculate habitat volume using output from coupled three-dimensional circulation and biogeochemical models, and it indicates that the Pentahedron method has wide application to aquatic and marine systems for which these models exist and physiological tolerances of organisms are known.

Studies in the parameterization of cloudiness in climate models and the analysis of radiation fields in general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN

1990-01-01

Broad-band parameterizations for atmospheric radiative transfer were developed for clear and cloudy skies. These were in the shortwave and longwave regions of the spectrum. These models were compared with other models in an international effort called ICRCCM (Intercomparison of Radiation Codes for Climate Models). The radiation package developed was used for simulations of a General Circulation Model (GCM). A synopsis is provided of the research accomplishments in the two areas separately. Details are available in the published literature.

Modeling the Impact of Fjord-glacier Geometry on Subglacial Plume, Wind, and Tidally-forced Circulation in Outlet Glacier Fjords

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, D.; Sutherland, D.; Nash, J. D.; Shroyer, E.; de Steur, L.; Catania, G. A.; Stearns, L. A.

2016-12-01

The acceleration, retreat, and thinning of Greenland's outlet glaciers coincided with a warming of Atlantic waters, suggesting that marine-terminating glaciers are sensitive to ocean forcing. However, we still lack a precise understanding of what factors control the variability of ocean heat transport toward the glacier terminus. Here we use an idealized ocean general circulation model (3D MITgcm) to systematically evaluate how fjord circulation driven by subglacial plumes, wind stress (along-fjord and along-shelf), and tides depends on grounding line depth, fjord width, sill height, and latitude. Our results indicate that while subglacial plumes in deeply grounded systems can draw shelf waters over a sill and toward the glacier, shallowly grounded systems require external forcing to renew basin waters. We use a coupled sea ice model to explore the competing influence of tidal mixing and surface buoyancy forcing on fjord stratification. Passive tracers injected in the plume, fjord basin, and shelf waters are used to quantify turnover timescales. Finally, we compare our model results with a two-year mooring record to explain fundamental differences in observed circulation and hydrography in Rink Isbræ and Kangerlussuup Sermia fjords in west Greenland. Our results underscore the first-order effect that geometry has in controlling fjord circulation and, thus, ocean heat flux to the ice.

Ocean Hydrodynamics Numerical Model in Curvilinear Coordinates for Simulating Circulation of the Global Ocean and its Separate Basins.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Anatoly; Diansky, Nikolay; Zalesny, Vladimir

2010-05-01

The original program complex is proposed for the ocean circulation sigma-model, developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). The complex can be used in various curvilinear orthogonal coordinate systems. In addition to ocean circulation model, the complex contains a sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics model, as well as the original system of the atmospheric forcing implementation on the basis of both prescribed meteodata and atmospheric model results. This complex can be used as the oceanic block of Earth climate model as well as for solving the scientific and practical problems concerning the World ocean and its separate oceans and seas. The developed program complex can be effectively used on parallel shared memory computational systems and on contemporary personal computers. On the base of the complex proposed the ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was developed. The model is realized in the curvilinear orthogonal coordinate system obtained by the conformal transformation of the standard geographical grid that allowed us to locate the system singularities outside the integration domain. The horizontal resolution of the OGCM is 1 degree on longitude, 0.5 degree on latitude, and it has 40 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model was integrated for 100 years starting from the Levitus January climatology using the realistic atmospheric annual cycle calculated on the base of CORE datasets. The experimental results showed us that the model adequately reproduces the basic characteristics of large-scale World Ocean dynamics, that is in good agreement with both observational data and results of the best climatic OGCMs. This OGCM is used as the oceanic component of the new version of climatic system model (CSM) developed in INM RAS. The latter is now ready for carrying out the new numerical experiments on climate and its change modelling according to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios in the scope of the CMIP-5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). On the base of the complex proposed the Pacific Ocean circulation eddy-resolving model was realized. The integration domain covers the Pacific from Equator to Bering Strait. The model horizontal resolution is 0.125 degree and it has 20 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model adequately reproduces circulation large-scale structure and its variability: Kuroshio meandering, ocean synoptic eddies, frontal zones, etc. Kuroshio high variability is shown. The distribution of contaminant was simulated that is admittedly wasted near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The results demonstrate contaminant distribution structure and provide us understanding of hydrological fields formation processes in the North-West Pacific.

An investigation of anticyclonic circulation in the southern Gulf of Riga during the spring period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soosaar, Edith; Maljutenko, Ilja; Raudsepp, Urmas; Elken, Jüri

2014-04-01

Previous studies of the gulf-type Region of Freshwater Influence (ROFI) have shown that circulation near the area of freshwater inflow sometimes becomes anticyclonic. Such a circulation is different from basic coastal ocean buoyancy-driven circulation where an anticyclonic bulge develops near the source and a coastal current is established along the right hand coast (in the northern hemisphere), resulting in the general cyclonic circulation. The spring (from March to June) circulation and spreading of river discharge water in the southern Gulf of Riga (GoR) in the Baltic Sea was analyzed based on the results of a 10-year simulation (1997-2006) using the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM). Monthly mean currents in the upper layer of the GoR revealed a double gyre structure dominated either by an anticyclonic or cyclonic gyre in the near-head southeastern part and corresponding cyclonic/anticyclonic gyre in the near-mouth northwestern part of the gulf. Time series analysis of PCA and vorticity, calculated from velocity data and model sensitivity tests, showed that in spring the anticyclonic circulation in the upper layer of the southern GoR is driven primarily by the estuarine type density field. This anticyclonic circulation is enhanced by easterly winds but blocked or even reversed by westerly winds. The estuarine type density field is maintained by salt flux in the northwestern connection to the Baltic Proper and river discharge in the southern GoR.

An investigation of anticyclonic circulation in the southern Gulf of Riga during the spring period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soosaar, Edith; Maljutenko, Ilja; Raudsepp, Urmas; Elken, Jüri

2015-04-01

Previous studies of the gulf-type Region of Freshwater Influence (ROFI) have shown that circulation near the area of freshwater inflow sometimes becomes anticyclonic. Such a circulation is different from basic coastal ocean buoyancy-driven circulation where an anticyclonic bulge develops near the source and a coastal current is established along the right hand coast (in the northern hemisphere), resulting in the general cyclonic circulation. The spring (from March to June) circulation and spreading of river discharge water in the southern Gulf of Riga (GoR) in the Baltic Sea was analyzed based on the results of a 10-year simulation (1997-2006) using the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM). Monthly mean currents in the upper layer of the GoR revealed a double gyre structure dominated either by an anticyclonic or cyclonic gyre in the near-head southeastern part and corresponding cyclonic/anticyclonic gyre in the near-mouth northwestern part of the gulf. Time series analysis of PCA and vorticity, calculated from velocity data and model sensitivity tests, showed that in spring the anticyclonic circulation in the upper layer of the southern GoR is driven primarily by the estuarine type density field. This anticyclonic circulation is enhanced by easterly winds but blocked or even reversed by westerly winds. The estuarine type density field is maintained by salt flux in the northwestern connection to the Baltic Proper and river discharge in the southern GoR.

Reconciling the Observed and Modeled Southern Hemisphere Circulation Response to Volcanic Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGraw, M. C.; Barnes, E. A.; Deser, C.

2016-12-01

Confusion exists regarding the tropospheric circulation response to volcanic eruptions, with models and observations seeming to disagree on the sign of the response. The forced Southern Hemisphere circulation response to the eruptions of Pinatubo and El Chichon is shown to be a robust positive annular mode, using over 200 ensemble members from 38 climate models. It is demonstrated that the models and observations are not at odds, but rather, internal climate variability is large and can overwhelm the forced response. It is further argued that the state of ENSO can at least partially explain the sign of the observed anomalies, and may account for the perceived discrepancy between model and observational studies. The eruptions of both El Chichon and Pinatubo occurred during El Nino events, and it is demonstrated that the SAM anomalies following volcanic eruptions are weaker during El Nino events compared to La Nina events.

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Chandra, Sushil; Stolarski, Richard S.; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Kaye, Jack A.

1991-01-01

Values of the monthly mean heating rates and the residual circulation characteristics were calculated using NMC data for temperature and the solar backscattered UV ozone for the period between 1979 and 1986. The results were used in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the effects of temperature and residual circulation on the interannual variability of ozone. It was found that the calculated total ozone was more sensitive to variations in interannual residual circulation than in the interannual temperature. The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability was found to be similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year-to-year deviations were, for the most part, uncorrelated, due to the fact that the model did not account for most of the QBO forcing and for some of the observed tropospheric changes.

On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

PubMed

Hofmann, Matthias; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2009-12-08

One of the most important large-scale ocean current systems for Earth's climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we review its stability properties and present new model simulations to study the AMOC's hysteresis response to freshwater perturbations. We employ seven different versions of an Ocean General Circulation Model by using a highly accurate tracer advection scheme, which minimizes the problem of numerical diffusion. We find that a characteristic freshwater hysteresis also exists in the predominantly wind-driven, low-diffusion limit of the AMOC. However, the shape of the hysteresis changes, indicating that a convective instability rather than the advective Stommel feedback plays a dominant role. We show that model errors in the mean climate can make the hysteresis disappear, and we investigate how model innovations over the past two decades, like new parameterizations and mixing schemes, affect the AMOC stability. Finally, we discuss evidence that current climate models systematically overestimate the stability of the AMOC.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Otte, Tanya L.

2013-04-01

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.

Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L S; Fung, Inez Y; Chiang, John C H

2012-01-17

We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO(2), but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

Experimental Study and CFD Simulation of a 2D Circulating Fluidized Bed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallio, S.; Guldén, M.; Hermanson, A.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) gains popularity in fluidized bed modeling. For model validation, there is a need of detailed measurements under well-defined conditions. In the present study, experiments were carried out in a 40 em wide and 3 m high 2D circulating fluidized bed. Two experiments were simulated by means of the Eulerian multiphase models of the Fluent CFD software. The vertical pressure and solids volume fraction profiles and the solids circulation rate obtained from the simulation were compared to the experimental results. In addition, lateral volume fraction profiles could be compared. The simulated CFB flow patterns and the profiles obtained from simulations were in general in a good agreement with the experimental results.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-05-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Research on the identification of inefficient and invalid circulation in ultra-high water cut stage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shaoxin

2018-06-01

After oil field entered into ultra-high water cut stage, big channels are formed in some oil and water wells and lead to the inefficient and ineffective circulation of injected water, which not only inhibit the increase of recovery ratio of oil and gas, but also cause the waste of resources. This article selects three static parameters and four dynamic parameters which can perform inefficient and ineffective circulation characteristics between oil and water wells, integrates the fuzzy mathematics theory, establishes fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to identify the inefficient and ineffective circulation wells in the research area, on this basis, inefficient and ineffective circulation position is further determined through the logging curve characteristics and logging ratio method, the identification of inefficient and ineffective circulation "determine well and layer" is achieved, and provide powerful basis for governance work of inefficient and ineffective circulation.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25–48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

PubMed

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

2017-05-23

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Atmospheric Circulation and Composition of GJ1214b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menou, Kristen

2012-01-01

The exoplanet GJ1214b presents an interesting example of compositional degeneracy for low-mass planets. Its atmosphere may be composed of water, super-solar or solar metallicity material. We present atmospheric circulation models of GJ1214b for these three compositions, with explicit gray radiative transfer and an optional treatment of MHD bottom drag. All models develop strong, superrotating zonal winds (~1-2 km s-1). The degree of eastward heat advection, which can be inferred from secondary eclipse and thermal phase curve measurements, varies greatly between the models. These differences are understood as resulting from variations in the radiative times at the thermal photosphere, caused by separate molecular weight and opacity effects. Our GJ1214b models illustrate how atmospheric circulation can be used as a probe of composition for similar tidally locked exoplanets in the mini-Neptune/waterworld class.

The 1997/98 El Nino: A Test for Climate Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, R; Dong, B; Cess, R D

Version 3 of the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) has been used to demonstrate one means of comparing a general circulation model with observations for a specific climate perturbation, namely the strong 1997/98 El Nino. This event was characterized by the collapse of the tropical Pacific's Walker circulation, caused by the lack of a zonal sea surface temperature gradient during the El Nino. Relative to normal years, cloud altitudes were lower in the western portion of the Pacific and higher in the eastern portion. HadAM3 likewise produced the observed collapse of the Walker circulation, and it did a reasonable jobmore » of reproducing the west/east cloud structure changes. This illustrates that the 1997/98 El Nino serves as a useful means of testing cloud-climate interactions in climate models.« less

A Weak Constraint 4D-Var Assimilation System for the Navy Coastal Model Using the Representer Method

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

the help of the Parametric Fortrai compiler (PFC), Erwig et al. 2007 . Some general circulation models of the complexity of NCOM have seen 1 similar...the Mir general circulation model (MITgcm, Marotzke et al. 1999) also used in the ECCO consortium assimilation experiments ( Stammer et al. 2002...using the« inverse Regional Ocean Modeling System (IROMS, Di Lorenzo et al. 2007 ) with horizontal resolutions of 10 and 30km. The CCS is a large

Testing the Reconstruction Potential for North Pacific Circulation Anomalies inside the TraCE-21ka Paleoclimate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elison Timm, O.; Flamholtz, W. M.; Li, S.; Massa, C.; Beilman, D. W.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study was sparked by the idea that paleoclimate temperature and precipitation proxies provide sufficient information to make inferences about extratropical atmospheric circulation changes over the North Pacific during the Holocene. Typical targets for the circulation reconstruction problem include the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and the storm tracks. The reconstruction problem was investigated under idealized conditions using model simulation results from the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/TraCE/), which covers the Last Glacial Maximum to present. It is demonstrated that modes of variability found on interannual to multidecadal timescales during the preindustrial era provide inadequate pattern for reconstructing long-term mean changes during the past 22,000 years. Our circulation reconstruction target was the geopotential height field at 500hPa (Z500) over the North Pacific Ocean during winter. We applied a field reconstruction method using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). The MCA was applied to Z500 and surface temperatures as predictor information. The MCA was given model data containing interannual to multidecadal variability from the pre-industrial climate (1000BP-900BP). We worked with ten leading MCA modes in the reconstruction, which can reproduce about 90% of the covariability during the preindustrial period. Within the model simulation, we validated the field reconstructions against the model's circulation states over the last 22,000 years. Spatial skill scores show that the reconstruction skill drops significantly prior to the late Holocene. Reasons for the loss of reconstruction skill are due to the fact that externally forced climate changes do not resemble the internal modes of variability and that covariance between circulation and temperatures on interannual-multidecadal time scales changes with the background climate state. However, the reconstruction can be improved by including data from the early Holocene and the LGM era in the MCA. Based on these results, we advocate that paleoclimate model simulation results should be used define a set of first-guess pattern for the reconstruction of circulation anomalies from sparse and noisy proxy data.

Numerical model of the circulation and dispersion in the east Adriatic coastal waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beg Paklar, Gordana; Dzoic, Tomislav; Koracin, Darko; Matijevic, Slavica; Grbec, Branka; Ivatek-Sahdan, Stjepan

2017-04-01

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) was implemented to reproduce physical properties of the area around submarine outlet Stobrec in the middle Adriatic coastal area. ROMS model run was forced with realistic atmospheric fields obtained from meteorological model Aladin, climatological river discharges, tides and dynamics of the surrounding area imposed at the open boundaries. Atmospheric forcing included momentum, heat and water fluxes calculated interactively from the Aladin surface fields during ROMS model simulations. Simulated fields from the Adriatic and shelf scale models were used to prescribe the initial and open boundary conditions for fine resolution coastal domain. Model results were compared with available CTD measurements and discussed in the light of the climatological circulation and thermohaline properties of the middle Adriatic coastal area. Variability in the circulation is related to the prevailing atmospheric conditions, changes in the hydrological conditions and water mass exchange at the open boundaries. Basic features of the coastal circulation are well reproduced by the ROMS model, as well as temperatures and salinities which are within corresponding seasonal intervals, although with lower stratification than measured ones. In order to reproduce dispersion of the passive tracer the ROMS model was coupled with Lagrangian dispersion model. Multiyear monitoring of the physical, chemical and biological parameters around the sewage outlet was used to assess the quality of the dispersion model results. Among measured parameters, redox potential of the surface sediment layer was selected to be compared with model results as its negative values are direct consequence of increased organic matter input that can be attributed to the sewage system inflow.

Climate change, variability and extreme events : risk assessment and management strategies in a Peach cultivated area in Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo

2014-05-01

Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess thermal hazard and vulnerability in sensitive phenological stages. Cultivar-specific yield response functions to water availability were used to assess the reduction of yield for a determinate management option. Downscaled climate scenarios have been used to calculate indicators of soil water availability and thermal times and to evaluate the variability of crop phenology in combination with critical temperatures. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Management options were defined by combinations of irrigation strategies (optimal, rainfed and deficit) with use of alternate varieties. As regards hydrologic conditions, risk assessment has been done at landscape scale in all soil units within each study area. The mechanistic model SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model) of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system was used to describe the hydrological conditions in response to climate and irrigation. Different farm management options were evaluated. In a moderate water shortage scenario, deficit irrigation was an effective strategy to cope with climate change risks. In a severe water shortage scenario, the study showed the potentiality of intra-specific biodiversity to reduce risk of yield losses, although costs should be evaluated against the benefits of each specific management option. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo

2014-05-01

Soil water availability is one of the main components of the terroir concept, influencing crop yield and fruit composition in grapes. The aim of this work is to analyze some elements of the "natural environment" of terroir (climate and soil) in combination with the intra-specific biodiversity of yield responses of grapevine to water availability. From a reference (1961-90) to a future (2021-50) climate case, the effects of climate evolution on soil water availability are assessed and, regarding soil water regime as a predictor variable, the potential spatial distribution of wine-producing cultivars is determined. In a region of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, 20,000 ha), where a terroir classification has been produced (Bonfante et al., 2011), we applied an agro-hydrological model to determine water availability indicators. Simulations were performed in 60 soil typological units, over the entire study area, and water availability (= hydrological) indicators were determined. Two climate cases were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of predictions by general circulation models (AOGCM) under A1B SRES scenario. Climatic data consist of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. Spatial and temporal variability of hydrological indicators was addressed. With respect to temporal variability, both inter-annual and intra-annual (i.e. at different stages of crop cycle) variability were analyzed. Some cultivar-specific relations between hydrological indicators and characteristics of must quality were established. Moreover, for several wine-producing cultivars, hydrological requirements were determined by means of yield response functions to soil water availability, through the re-analysis of experimental data derived from scientific literature. The standard errors of estimated requirements were determined. To assess cultivars adaptability, hydrological requirements were evaluated against hydrological indicators. A probabilistic assessment of adaptability was performed, and the inaccuracy of estimated hydrological requirements was accounted for by the error of estimate and its distribution. Maps of cultivars potential distribution, i.e. locations where each cultivar is expected to be compatible with climate, were derived and possible options for adaptation to climate change were defined. The 2021 - 2050 climate scenario was characterized by higher temperatures throughout the year and by a significant decrease in precipitation during spring and autumn. The results have shown the relevant variability of soils water regime and its effects on cultivars adaptability. In the future climate scenario, a hydrological indicator (i.e. relative evapotranspiration deficit - RETD), averaged over the growing season, showed an average increase of 5-8 %, and more pronounced increases occurred in the phenological phases of berry formation and ripening. At the locations where soil hydrological conditions were favourable (like the ancient terraces), hydrological indicators were quite similar in both climate scenarios and the adaptability of the cultivars was high both in the reference and future climate case. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, Vitis vinifera L., simulation model, yield response functions, potential cultivation area.

Using a global ocean circulation model to conduct a preliminary risk assessment of oil spills in the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, Zoe; Popova, Katya; Hirschi, Joel; Coward, Andrew; Yool, Andrew; van Gennip, Simon; Anifowose, Babtunde; Harrington-Missin, Liam

2017-04-01

Although oil blowouts from deep-water drilling happen very rarely, they can cause catastrophic damage to the environment. Despite such potentially high impacts, relatively little research effort has gone into understanding subsurface oil plumes in the deep ocean. In this study, we demonstrate the significance of this problem and offer potential solutions using a novel approach based on a leading-edge, high-resolution global ocean circulation model. We present examples demonstrating: (a) the importance of ocean circulation in the propagation of oil spills; and (b) likely circulation footprints for oil spills at four key locations in the Atlantic Ocean that exist in different circulation regimes - the shelves of Brazil, the Gulf of Guinea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Faroe-Shetland Channel. In order to quantify the variability at each site on seasonal timescales, interannual timescales and at different depths, we utilize the Modified Hausdorff Distance (MHD), which is a shape-distance metric that measures the similarity between two shapes. The scale of the footprints across the four focus locations varies considerably and is determined by the main circulation features in their vicinity. For example, the hypothetical oil plume can be affected by variations in the speed and location of a particular current (e.g. Brazil Current at the Brazilian shelf site) or be influenced by different currents entirely depending on the release depth, month and year (e.g. Angola Current or Southern Equatorial Current at the Gulf of Guinea site). Overall, our results demonstrate the need to use state of the art global, or basin-scale, ocean circulation models when assessing the environmental impacts of proposed oil drilling activities.

Circulation in the South China Sea during summer 2000 as obtained from observations and a generalized topography-following ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqun; Yuan, Yaochu; Guan, Weibing; Lou, Ruyun; Wang, Kangshan

2004-07-01

On the basis of the recently obtained hydrographic data in the South China Sea, the improved Princeton Ocean Model with a generalized topography-following coordinate system is used to study the circulation in the region during summer 2000. Several sensitivity experiments are carried out to achieve reasonable model parameters for the South China Sea (SCS). It is shown from the resting stratification experiments that the generalized topography-following coordinate scheme is better than the standard sigma grid scheme for reducing the pressure gradient errors. The combination of sea surface height anomaly derived from TOPEX/Poseidon and numerical results with both diagnostic and semidiagnostic simulations provides a consistent circulation pattern for the SCS in August, and the main circulation features can be summarized as follows: (1) There is a notable anticyclonic warm eddy southeast of Vietnam with a horizontal scale of ˜300 km, and there is a cyclonic cold eddy. The simultaneous existence of these cold and warm eddies is one of the important circulation characteristics in the SCS during summer 2000. (2) A secondary cold eddy is found east of Vietnam. (3) The northwestern part of the SCS is dominated by an anticyclonic circulation system. (4) There is also a secondary warm eddy southwest off the Luzon Island. (5) A cyclonic eddy is found west off the Borneo Island. (6) A western intensification phenomenon obviously occurs in the SCS. The dynamical mechanisms of the above-mentioned circulation pattern in the SCS are the interaction between the wind stress and bottom topography and the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief.

CISOCUR - Hydrodynamic circulation in the Curonian Lagoon inferred through stable isotope measurements and numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umgiesser, Georg; Razinkovas-Baziukas, Arturas; Barisevičiūtė, Ruta; Baziukė, Dalia; Ertürk, Ali; Gasiūnaitė, Jovita; Gulbinskas, Saulius; Lubienė, Irma; Maračkinaite, Jurgita; Petkuvienė, Jolita; Pilkaitytė, Renata; Ruginis, Tomas; Zemlys, Petras; Žilius, Mindaugas

2013-04-01

The spatial pattern of the hydrodynamic circulation of the Curonian lagoon, the largest European coastal lagoon, is still little understood. In absence of automatic current registration data all the existing models relied mostly on such data as water levels leaving high level of uncertainty. Here we present CISOCUR, a new project financed by the European Social Fund under the Global Grant measure. The project applies a new methodology that uses the carbon stable isotope (SI) ratio of C12 and C13 that characterize different water sources entering the lagoon and may be altered by internal kinetic processes. Through the tracing of these isotope ratios different water masses can be identified. This gives the possibility to validate several hypotheses of water circulation and validate hydrodynamic models. In particular it will be possible to 1) trace water masses entering the lagoon through the Nemunas and the Klaipeda strait; 2) test the hypothesis of sediment transport mechanisms inside the lagoon; 3) evaluate the importance of physical forcing on the lagoon circulation. The use of a hydrodynamic finite element model, coupled with the SI method, will allow for a realistic description of the transport processes inside the Curonian lagoon. So the main research goal is to apply the stable isotope tracers and a finite element model to determine the circulation patterns in the Curonian lagoon. Overall, the project will develop according to 4 main phases: 1) A pilot study to measure the isotope composition of different carbon compounds (dissolved and suspended) in different water bodies that feed water into the central lagoon. Through this pilot study the optimal study sites for the seasonal campaign will be identified as well. 2) Seasonal field campaigns in the monitoring stations identified in phase 1 to measure the carbon isotope ratio. 3) Development of a model that describes the kinetics of carbon isotopes and its transformation. 4) Application of a hydrodynamic model that includes the kinetic model and uses the data in order to describe the overall circulation patterns in the Curonian lagoon. Project activities will be carried out as common co-ordinated effort of field an SI group and the modeling group that will have to calibrate the hydrodynamic model. In this way the expertise of different groups (physicists and oceanographers) will result in added value, providing the best available expertise along the eastern coast of the Baltic.

Distribution of N2O in the atmosphere under global warming - a simulation study with the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, Daniela; Manzini, Elisa; Reick, Christian H.; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf

2014-05-01

Climate change is driven by an increasing release of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide (N2O). Besides fossil fuel burning, also land use change and land management are anthropogenic sources of GHGs. Especially inputs of reactive nitrogen via fertilizer and deposition lead to enhanced emissions of N2O. One effect of a drastic future increase in surface temperature is a modification of atmospheric circulation, e.g. an accelerated Brewer Dobson circulation affecting the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decayed only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in atmospheric circulation, especially changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere, will affect the atmospheric transport, decay, and distribution of N2O. In our study we assess the impact of global warming on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O. As terrestrial N2O emissions are highly determined by inputs of reactive nitrogen - the location of which being determined by human choice - we examine in particular the importance of latitudinal source regions of N2O for its global distribution. For this purpose we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation.

The Regional Water Cycle and Water Ice Clouds in the Tharsis - Valles Marineris System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, C. W. S.; Rafkin, S. C.

2017-12-01

The regional atmospheric circulation on Mars is highly influenced by local topographic gradients. Terrain-following air parcels forced along the slopes of the major Tharsis volcanoes and the steep canyon walls of Valles Marineris significantly impact the local water vapor concentration and the associated conditions for cloud formation. Using a non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model with aerosol & cloud microphysics, we investigate the meteorological conditions for water ice cloud formation in the coupled Tharsis - Valles Marineris system near the aphelion season. The usage of a limited area regional model ensures that topographic slopes are well resolved compared to the typical resolutions of a global-coverage general circulation model. The effects of shadowing and slope angle geometries on the energy budget is also taken into account. Diurnal slope winds in complex terrains are typically characterized by the reversal of wind direction twice per sol: upslope during the day, and downslope at night. However, our simulation results of the regional circulation and diurnal water cycle indicate substantial asymmetries in the day-night circulation. The convergence of moist air masses enters Valles Marineris via easterly flows, whereas dry air sweep across the plateau of the canyon system from the south towards the north. We emphasize the non-uniform vertical distribution of water vapor in our model results. Water vapor mixing ratios in the lower planetary boundary layer may be factors greater than the mixing ratio aloft. Water ice clouds are important contributors to the climatic forcing on Mars, and their effects on the mesoscale circulations in the Tharsis - Valles Marineris region significantly contribute to the regional perturbations in the large-scale global atmospheric circulation.

Effect of potential vorticity flux on the circulation in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yaohua; Sun, Junchuan; Wang, Yonggang; Wei, Zexun; Yang, Dezhou; Qu, Tangdong

2017-08-01

This study analyzes temperature and salinity products from the U.S. Navy Generalized Digital Environment Model. To avoid the fictitious assumption of no-motion reference level, a P-vector inverse method is employed to derive geostrophic velocity. Line integral of geostrophic velocity shows evidence for the existence of a sandwiched circulation in the South China Sea (SCS), i.e., cyclonic circulation in the subsurface and deep layers and anticyclonic in the intermediate layer. To reveal the factors responsible for the sandwiched circulation, we derive the potential vorticity equation based on a four-and-a-half-layer quasi-geostrophic model and apply theoretical potential vorticity constraint to density layers. The result shows that the sandwiched circulation is largely induced by planetary potential vorticity flux through lateral boundaries, mainly the Luzon Strait. This dynamical mechanism lies in the fact that the net potential vorticity inflow in the subsurface and deep layers leads to a positive layer-average vorticity in the SCS basin, yielding vortex stretching and a cyclonic basin-wide circulation. On the contrary, the net potential vorticity outflow in the intermediate layer induces a negative layer-average vorticity, generating an anticyclonic basin-wide circulation in the SCS. Furthermore, by illustrating different consequence from depth/density layers, we clarify that density layers are essential for applying theoretical potential vorticity constraint to the isolated deep SCS basin.

Predicting the Necessity for Extracorporeal Circulation During Lung Transplantation: A Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Hinske, Ludwig Christian; Hoechter, Dominik Johannes; Schröeer, Eva; Kneidinger, Nikolaus; Schramm, René; Preissler, Gerhard; Tomasi, Roland; Sisic, Alma; Frey, Lorenz; von Dossow, Vera; Scheiermann, Patrick

2017-06-01

The factors leading to the implementation of unplanned extracorporeal circulation during lung transplantation are poorly defined. Consequently, the authors aimed to identify patients at risk for unplanned extracorporeal circulation during lung transplantation. Retrospective data analysis. Single-center university hospital. A development data set of 170 consecutive patients and an independent validation cohort of 52 patients undergoing lung transplantation. The authors investigated a cohort of 170 consecutive patients undergoing single or sequential bilateral lung transplantation without a priori indication for extracorporeal circulation and evaluated the predictive capability of distinct preoperative and intraoperative variables by using automated model building techniques at three clinically relevant time points (preoperatively, after endotracheal intubation, and after establishing single-lung ventilation). Preoperative mean pulmonary arterial pressure was the strongest predictor for unplanned extracorporeal circulation. A logistic regression model based on preoperative mean pulmonary arterial pressure and lung allocation score achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85. Consequently, the authors developed a novel 3-point scoring system based on preoperative mean pulmonary arterial pressure and lung allocation score, which identified patients at risk for unplanned extracorporeal circulation and validated this score in an independent cohort of 52 patients undergoing lung transplantation. The authors showed that patients at risk for unplanned extracorporeal circulation during lung transplantation could be identified by their novel 3-point score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A local-circulation model for Darrieus vertical-axis wind turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masse, B.

1986-04-01

A new computational model for the aerodynamics of the vertical-axis wind turbine is presented. Based on the local-circulation method generalized for curved blades, combined with a wake model for the vertical-axis wind turbine, it differs markedly from current models based on variations in the streamtube momentum and vortex models using the lifting-line theory. A computer code has been developed to calculate the loads and performance of the Darrieus vertical-axis wind turbine. The results show good agreement with experimental data and compare well with other methods.

Developing Novel Therapeutic Approaches in Small Cell Lung Carcinoma Using Genetically Engineered Mouse Models and Human Circulating Tumor Cells

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

AD_________________ Award Number: W81XWH-13-1-0325 TITLE: Developing Novel Therapeutic Approaches in Small Cell Lung Carcinoma Using ...Genetically Engineered Mouse Models and Human Circulating Tumor Cells PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Jeffrey Engelman MD PhD CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION ...Novel Therapeutic Approaches in Small Cell Lung 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER W81XWH-13-1-0325 Carcinoma Using Genetically Engineered Mouse Models and 5b

Walker circulation in a transient climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesca, Elina; Grützun, Verena; Buehler, Stefan A.

2016-04-01

The tropical overturning circulations modulate the heat exchange across the tropics and between the tropics and the poles. The anthropogenic influence on the climate system will affect these circulations, impacting the dynamics of the Earth system. In this work we focus on the Walker circulation. We investigate its temporal and spatial dynamical changes and their link to other climate features, such as surface and sea-surface temperature patterns, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and ocean heat-uptake, both at global and regional scale. In order to determine the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the tropical circulation, we analyze the outputs of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project. We use the experiment with 1% year-1 increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling of the concentration. Consistent with previous studies (ex. Ma and Xie 2013), we find that for this experiment most GCMs associate a weakening Walker circulation to a warming transient climate. Due to the role of the Walker Pacific cell in the meridional heat and moisture transport across the tropical Pacific and also the connection to ENSO, we find that a weakened Walker circulation correlates with more extreme El-Niño events, although without a change in their frequency. The spatial analysis of the Pacific Walker cell suggests an eastward displacement of the ascending branch, which is consistent with positive SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and the link of the Pacific Walker cell to ENSO. Recent studies (ex. England et al. 2014) have linked a strengthened Walker circulation to stronger ocean heat uptake, especially in the western Pacific. The inter-model comparison of the correlation between Walker circulation intensity and ocean heat uptake does not convey a robust response for the investigated experiment. However, there is some evidence that a stronger weakening of the Walker circulation is linked to a higher transient climate response (temperature change by the time of CO2 doubling), which in turn might be related to a decreased ocean heat uptake. This uncertainty across the models we attribute to the multitude of factors controlling ocean and atmosphere heat exchange, both at global and regional scales, as well as to the present capabilities of GCMs in simulating this exchange. References: England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A., 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change 4 (3): 222-227. Ma, J., and Xie, S. P., 2013. Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation*. Journal of Climate, 26 (8): 2482-2501

Autologous circulating angiogenic cells treated with osteopontin and delivered via a collagen scaffold enhance wound healing in the alloxan-induced diabetic rabbit ear ulcer model.

PubMed

O'Loughlin, Aonghus; Kulkarni, Mangesh; Vaughan, Erin E; Creane, Michael; Liew, Aaron; Dockery, Peter; Pandit, Abhay; O'Brien, Timothy

2013-01-01

Diabetic foot ulceration is the leading cause of amputation in people with diabetes mellitus. Peripheral vascular disease is present in the majority of patients with diabetic foot ulcers. Despite standard treatments there exists a high amputation rate. Circulating angiogenic cells previously known as early endothelial progenitor cells are derived from peripheral blood and support angiogenesis and vasculogenesis, providing a potential topical treatment for non-healing diabetic foot ulcers. A scaffold fabricated from Type 1 collagen facilitates topical cell delivery to a diabetic wound. Osteopontin is a matricellular protein involved in wound healing and increases the angiogenic potential of circulating angiogenic cells. A collagen scaffold seeded with circulating angiogenic cells was developed. Subsequently the effect of autologous circulating angiogenic cells that were seeded in a collagen scaffold and topically delivered to a hyperglycemic cutaneous wound was assessed. The alloxan-induced diabetic rabbit ear ulcer model was used to determine healing in response to the following treatments: collagen seeded with autologous circulating angiogenic cells exposed to osteopontin, collagen seeded with autologous circulating angiogenic cells, collagen alone and untreated wound. Stereology was used to assess angiogenesis in wounds. The cells exposed to osteopontin and seeded on collagen increased percentage wound closure as compared to other groups. Increased angiogenesis was observed with the treatment of collagen and collagen seeded with circulating angiogenic cells. These results demonstrate that topical treatment of full thickness cutaneous ulcers with autologous circulating angiogenic cells increases wound healing. Cells exposed to the matricellular protein osteopontin result in superior wound healing. The wound healing benefit is associated with a more efficient vascular network. This topical therapy provides a potential novel therapy for the treatment of non-healing diabetic foot ulcers in humans.

Forcing mechanism of the seasonally asymmetric quasi-biennial oscillation secondary circulation in ERA-40 and MAECHAM5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña-Ortiz, C.; Ribera, P.; García-Herrera, R.; Giorgetta, M. A.; García, R. R.

2008-08-01

The seasonality of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its secondary circulation is analyzed in the European Reanalysis (ERA-40) and Middle Atmosphere European Centre Hamburg Model (MAECHAM5) general circulation model data sets through the multitaper method-singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). In agreement with previous studies, the results reveal a strong seasonal dependence of the QBO secondary circulation. This is characterized by a two-cell structure symmetric about the equator during autumn and spring. However, anomalies strongly weaken in the summer hemisphere and strengthen in the winter hemisphere, leading to an asymmetric QBO secondary circulation characterized by a single-cell structure displaced into the winter hemisphere during the solstices. In ERA-40, this asymmetry is more pronounced during the northern than during the southern winter. These results provide the first observation of the QBO secondary circulation asymmetries in the ERA-40 reanalysis data set across the full stratosphere and the lower mesosphere, up to 0.1 hPa. The MTM-SVD reconstruction of the seasonal QBO signals in the residual circulation and the QBO signals in Eliassen Palm (EP) flux divergences suggest a particular mechanism for the seasonal asymmetries of the QBO secondary circulation and its extension across the midlatitudes. The analysis shows that the QBO modulates the EP flux in the winter hemispheric surf zone poleward of the QBO jets. The zonal wind forcing by EP flux divergence is transformed by the Coriolis effect into a meridional wind signal. The seasonality in the stratospheric EP flux and the hemispheric differences in planetary wave forcing cause the observed seasonality in the QBO secondary circulation and its hemispheric differences.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

Experimental Investigation of a 2D Supercritical Circulation-Control Airfoil Using Particle Image Velocimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Gregory S.; Yao, Chung-Sheng; Allan, Brian G.

2006-01-01

Recent efforts in extreme short takeoff and landing aircraft configurations have renewed the interest in circulation control wing design and optimization. The key to accurately designing and optimizing these configurations rests in the modeling of the complex physics of these flows. This paper will highlight the physics of the stagnation and separation regions on two typical circulation control airfoil sections.

Interannual drought index variations in Central Europe related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation—application and evaluation of statistical downscaling approaches based on circulation type classifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus

2015-08-01

This contribution investigates the relationship between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and interannual variations of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Central Europe. To this end, circulation types (CT) have been derived from a variety of circulation type classifications (CTC) applied to daily sea level pressure (SLP) data and mean circulation indices of vorticity ( V), zonality ( Z) and meridionality ( M) have been calculated. Occurrence frequencies of CTs and circulation indices have been utilized as predictors within multiple regression models (MRM) for the estimation of gridded 3-month SPI values over Central Europe, for the period 1950 to 2010. CTC-based MRMs used in the analyses comprise variants concerning the basic method for CT classification, the number of CTs, the size and location of the spatial domain used for CTCs and the exclusive use of CT frequencies or the combined use of CT frequencies and mean circulation indices as predictors. Adequate MRM predictor combinations have been identified by applying stepwise multiple regression analyses within a resampling framework. The performance (robustness) of the resulting MRMs has been quantified based on a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure applying several skill scores. Furthermore, the relative importance of individual predictors has been estimated for each MRM. From these analyses, it can be stated that model skill is improved by (i) the consideration of vorticity characteristics within CTCs, (ii) a relatively small size of the spatial domain to which CTCs are applied and (iii) the inclusion of mean circulation indices. However, model skill exhibits distinct variations between seasons and regions. Whereas promising skill can be stated for the western and northwestern parts of the Central European domain, only unsatisfactory skill is reached in the more continental regions and particularly during summer. Thus, it can be concluded that the presented approaches feature the potential for the downscaling of Central European drought index variations from the large-scale circulation, at least for some regions. Further improvements of CTC-based approaches may be expected from the optimization of CTCs for explaining the SPI, e.g. via the inclusion of additional variables in the classification procedure.

Tidal and tidally averaged circulation characteristics of Suisun Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Lawrence H.; Cheng, Ralph T.

1987-01-01

Availability of extensive field data permitted realistic calibration and validation of a hydrodynamic model of tidal circulation and salt transport for Suisun Bay, California. Suisun Bay is a partially mixed embayment of northern San Francisco Bay located just seaward of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The model employs a variant of an alternating direction implicit finite-difference method to solve the hydrodynamic equations and an Eulerian-Lagrangian method to solve the salt transport equation. An upwind formulation of the advective acceleration terms of the momentum equations was employed to avoid oscillations in the tidally averaged velocity field produced by central spatial differencing of these terms. Simulation results of tidal circulation and salt transport demonstrate that tides and the complex bathymetry determine the patterns of tidal velocities and that net changes in the salinity distribution over a few tidal cycles are small despite large changes during each tidal cycle. Computations of tidally averaged circulation suggest that baroclinic and wind effects are important influences on tidally averaged circulation during low freshwater-inflow conditions. Exclusion of baroclinic effects would lead to overestimation of freshwater inflow by several hundred m3/s for a fixed set of model boundary conditions. Likewise, exclusion of wind would cause an underestimation of flux rates between shoals and channels by 70–100%.

Integrated and spectral energetics of the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tenenbaum, J.

1982-01-01

Integrated and spectral error energetics of the GLAS General circulation model are compared with observations for periods in January 1975, 1976, and 1977. For two cases the model shows significant skill in predicting integrated energetics quantities out to two weeks, and for all three cases, the integrated monthly mean energetics show qualitative improvements over previous versions of the model in eddy kinetic energy and barotropic conversions. Fundamental difficulties remain with leakage of energy to the stratospheric level, particularly above strong initial jet streams associated in part with regions of steep terrain. The spectral error growth study represents the first comparison of general circulation model spectral energetics predictions with the corresponding observational spectra on a day by day basis. The major conclusion is that eddy kinetics energy can be correct while significant errors occur in the kinetic energy of wavenumber 3. Both the model and observations show evidence of single wavenumber dominance in eddy kinetic energy and the correlation of spectral kinetics and potential energy.

The 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer: Preliminary Simulations of Mesoscale Vortices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Atlas, R.; Chern, J.-D.; Reale, O.; Lin, S.-J.; Lee, T.; Chang, J.

2005-01-01

The NASA Columbia supercomputer was ranked second on the TOP500 List in November, 2004. Such a quantum jump in computing power provides unprecedented opportunities to conduct ultra-high resolution simulations with the finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). During 2004, the model was run in realtime experimentally at 0.25 degree resolution producing remarkable hurricane forecasts [Atlas et al., 2005]. In 2005, the horizontal resolution was further doubled, which makes the fvGCM comparable to the first mesoscale resolving General Circulation Model at the Earth Simulator Center [Ohfuchi et al., 2004]. Nine 5-day 0.125 degree simulations of three hurricanes in 2004 are presented first for model validation. Then it is shown how the model can simulate the formation of the Catalina eddies and Hawaiian lee vortices, which are generated by the interaction of the synoptic-scale flow with surface forcing, and have never been reproduced in a GCM before.)

Seasonal cycle of circulation in the Antarctic Peninsula and the off-shelf transport of shelf waters into southern Drake Passage and Scotia Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Mingshun; Charette, Matthew A.; Measures, Christopher I.; Zhu, Yiwu; Zhou, Meng

2013-06-01

The seasonal cycle of circulation and transport in the Antarctic Peninsula shelf region is investigated using a high-resolution (˜2 km) regional model based on the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). The model also includes a naturally occurring tracer with a strong source over the shelf (radium isotope 228Ra, t1/2=5.8 years) to investigate the sediment Fe input and its transport. The model is spun-up for three years using climatological boundary and surface forcing and then run for the 2004-2006 period using realistic forcing. Model results suggest a persistent and coherent circulation system throughout the year consisting of several major components that converge water masses from various sources toward Elephant Island. These currents are largely in geostrophic balance, driven by surface winds, topographic steering, and large-scale forcing. Strong off-shelf transport of the Fe-rich shelf waters takes place over the northeastern shelf/slope of Elephant Island, driven by a combination of topographic steering, extension of shelf currents, and strong horizontal mixing between the ACC and shelf waters. These results are generally consistent with recent and historical observational studies. Both the shelf circulation and off-shelf transport show a significant seasonality, mainly due to the seasonal changes of surface winds and large-scale circulation. Modeled and observed distributions of 228Ra suggest that a majority of Fe-rich upper layer waters exported off-shelf around Elephant Island are carried by the shelfbreak current and the Bransfield Strait Current from the shallow sills between Gerlache Strait and Livingston Island, and northern shelf of the South Shetland Islands, where strong winter mixing supplies much of the sediment derived nutrients (including Fe) input to the surface layer.

Tidally averaged circulation in Puget Sound sub-basins: Comparison of historical data, analytical model, and numerical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khangaonkar, Tarang; Yang, Zhaoqing; Kim, Tae Yun

2011-07-20

Through extensive field data collection and analysis efforts conducted since the 1950s, researchers have established an understanding of the characteristic features of circulation in Puget Sound. The pattern ranges from the classic fjordal behavior in some basins, with shallow brackish outflow and compensating inflow immediately below, to the typical two-layer flow observed in many partially mixed estuaries with saline inflow at depth. An attempt at reproducing this behavior by fitting an analytical formulation to past data is presented, followed by the application of a three-dimensional circulation and transport numerical model. The analytical treatment helped identify key physical processes and parameters,more » but quickly reconfirmed that response is complex and would require site-specific parameterization to include effects of sills and interconnected basins. The numerical model of Puget Sound, developed using unstructured-grid finite volume method, allowed resolution of the sub-basin geometric features, including presence of major islands, and site-specific strong advective vertical mixing created by bathymetry and multiple sills. The model was calibrated using available recent short-term oceanographic time series data sets from different parts of the Puget Sound basin. The results are compared against (1) recent velocity and salinity data collected in Puget Sound from 2006 and (2) a composite data set from previously analyzed historical records, mostly from the 1970s. The results highlight the ability of the model to reproduce velocity and salinity profile characteristics, their variations among Puget Sound subbasins, and tidally averaged circulation. Sensitivity of residual circulation to variations in freshwater inflow and resulting salinity gradient in fjordal sub-basins of Puget Sound is examined.« less

Three-dimensional circulation dynamics of along-channel flow in stratified estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musiak, Jeffery Daniel

Estuaries are vital because they are the major interface between humans and the oceans and provide valuable habitat for a wide range of organisms. Therefore it is important to model estuarine circulation to gain a better comprehension of the mechanics involved and how people effect estuaries. To this end, this dissertation combines analysis of data collected in the Columbia River estuary (CRE) with novel data processing and modeling techniques to further the understanding of estuaries that are strongly forced by riverflow and tides. The primary hypothesis tested in this work is that the three- dimensional (3-D) variability in along-channel currents in a strongly forced estuary can be largely accounted for by including the lateral variations in density and bathymetry but neglecting the secondary, or lateral, flow. Of course, the forcing must also include riverflow and oceanic tides. Incorporating this simplification and the modeling ideas put forth by others with new modeling techniques and new ideas on estuarine circulation will allow me to create a semi-analytical quasi 3-D profile model. This approach was chosen because it is of intermediate complexity to purely analytical models, that, if tractable, are too simple to be useful, and 3-D numerical models which can have excellent resolution but require large amounts of time, computer memory and computing power. Validation of the model will be accomplished using velocity and density data collected in the Columbia River Estuary and by comparison to analytical solutions. Components of the modeling developed here include: (1) development of a 1-D barotropic model for tidal wave propagation in frictionally dominated systems with strong topography. This model can have multiple tidal constituents and multiply connected channels. (2) Development and verification of a new quasi 3-D semi-analytical velocity profile model applicable to estuarine systems which are strongly forced by both oceanic tides and riverflow. This model includes diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal and non- linearly generated overtide circulation and residual circulation driven by riverflow, baroclinic forcing, surface wind stress and non-linear tidal forcing. (3) Demonstration that much of the lateral variation in along-channel currents is caused by variations in along- channel density forcing and bathymetry.

Performance Analysis and Optimization on the UCLA Parallel Atmospheric General Circulation Model Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lou, John; Ferraro, Robert; Farrara, John; Mechoso, Carlos

1996-01-01

An analysis is presented of several factors influencing the performance of a parallel implementation of the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) on massively parallel computer systems. Several modificaitons to the original parallel AGCM code aimed at improving its numerical efficiency, interprocessor communication cost, load-balance and issues affecting single-node code performance are discussed.

School and Modernity Representations as Pedagogical Models: A Study on Their Circulation and Usages in Brazil (1889-1940)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Carvalho, Marta Maria Chagas

2005-01-01

This article addresses the issue of school and modernity representations that circulated in Brazil as from the end of the nineteenth century until the middle of the twentieth century and determined the configuration process of the Republican school. First, the article examines the pedagogical models that guided the process of school…

New Approaches to the Parameterization of Gravity-Wave and Flow-Blocking Drag due to Unresolved Mesoscale Orography Guided by Mesoscale Model Predictability Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

oscillation (SAO) and quasi-biennial oscillation ( QBO ) of stratospheric equatorial winds in long-term (10-year) nature runs. The ability of these new schemes...to generate and maintain tropical SAO and QBO circulations in Navy models for the first time is an important breakthrough, since these circulations

Simulation of the early Martian climate using a general circulation model, DRAMATIC MGCM: Impacts of thermal inertia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamada, A.; Kuroda, T.; Kasaba, Y.; Terada, N.; Akiba, T.

2017-09-01

Our Mars General Circulation Model was used to reproduce the early Martian climate which was thought to be warm and wet. Our simulation with high thermal inertia assuming wet soils and ancient ocean/lakes succeeded in producing the surface temperature above 273K throughout a year in low-mid latitudes of northern hemisphere.

Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

2018-01-01

Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

EUREC4A: A Field Campaign to Elucidate the Couplings Between Clouds, Convection and Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Ament, Felix; Bigorre, Sebastien; Chazette, Patrick; Crewell, Susanne; Delanoë, Julien; Emanuel, Kerry; Farrell, David; Flamant, Cyrille; Gross, Silke; Hirsch, Lutz; Karstensen, Johannes; Mayer, Bernhard; Nuijens, Louise; Ruppert, James H.; Sandu, Irina; Siebesma, Pier; Speich, Sabrina; Szczap, Frédéric; Totems, Julien; Vogel, Raphaela; Wendisch, Manfred; Wirth, Martin

2017-11-01

Trade-wind cumuli constitute the cloud type with the highest frequency of occurrence on Earth, and it has been shown that their sensitivity to changing environmental conditions will critically influence the magnitude and pace of future global warming. Research over the last decade has pointed out the importance of the interplay between clouds, convection and circulation in controling this sensitivity. Numerical models represent this interplay in diverse ways, which translates into different responses of trade-cumuli to climate perturbations. Climate models predict that the area covered by shallow cumuli at cloud base is very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, while process models suggest the opposite. To understand and resolve this contradiction, we propose to organize a field campaign aimed at quantifying the physical properties of trade-cumuli (e.g., cloud fraction and water content) as a function of the large-scale environment. Beyond a better understanding of clouds-circulation coupling processes, the campaign will provide a reference data set that may be used as a benchmark for advancing the modelling and the satellite remote sensing of clouds and circulation. It will also be an opportunity for complementary investigations such as evaluating model convective parameterizations or studying the role of ocean mesoscale eddies in air-sea interactions and convective organization.

Transonic Drag Reduction Through Trailing-Edge Blowing on the FAST-MAC Circulation Control Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, David T.; Jones, Gregory S.; Milholen, William E., II; Goodliff, Scott L.

2017-01-01

A third wind tunnel test of the FAST-MAC circulation control semi-span model was completed in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center where the model was configured for transonic testing of the cruise configuration with 0deg flap detection to determine the potential for transonic drag reduction with the circulation control blowing. The model allowed independent control of four circulation control plenums producing a high momentum jet from a blowing slot near the wing trailing edge that was directed over a 15% chord simple-hinged ap. Recent upgrades to transonic semi-span flow control testing at the NTF have demonstrated an improvement to overall data repeatability, particularly for the drag measurement, that allows for increased confidence in the data results. The static thrust generated by the blowing slot was removed from the wind-on data using force and moment balance data from wind-o thrust tares. This paper discusses the impact of the trailing-edge blowing to the transonic aerodynamics of the FAST-MAC model in the cruise configuration, where at flight Reynolds numbers, the thrust-removed corrected data showed that an overall drag reduction and increased aerodynamic efficiency was realized as a consequence of the blowing.

Modeling the periodic stratification and gravitational circulation in San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, Ralph T.; Casulli, Vincenzo

1996-01-01

A high resolution, three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic numerical model is applied to San Francisco Bay, California to simulate the periodic tidal stratification caused by tidal straining and stirring and their long-term effects on gravitational circulation. The numerical model is formulated using fixed levels in the vertical and uniform computational mesh on horizontal planes. The governing conservation equations, the 3-D shallow water equations, are solved by a semi-implicit finite-difference scheme. Numerical simulations for estuarine flows in San Francisco Bay have been performed to reproduce the hydrodynamic properties of tides, tidal and residual currents, and salt transport. All simulations were carried out to cover at least 30 days, so that the spring-neap variance in the model results could be analyzed. High grid resolution used in the model permits the use of a simple turbulence closure scheme which has been shown to be sufficient to reproduce the tidal cyclic stratification and well-mixed conditions in the water column. Low-pass filtered 3-D time-series reveals the classic estuarine gravitational circulation with a surface layer flowing down-estuary and an up-estuary flow near the bottom. The intensity of the gravitational circulation depends upon the amount of freshwater inflow, the degree of stratification, and spring-neap tidal variations.

EUREC4A: A Field Campaign to Elucidate the Couplings Between Clouds, Convection and Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Ament, Felix; Bigorre, Sebastien; Chazette, Patrick; Crewell, Susanne; Delanoë, Julien; Emanuel, Kerry; Farrell, David; Flamant, Cyrille; Gross, Silke; Hirsch, Lutz; Karstensen, Johannes; Mayer, Bernhard; Nuijens, Louise; Ruppert, James H.; Sandu, Irina; Siebesma, Pier; Speich, Sabrina; Szczap, Frédéric; Totems, Julien; Vogel, Raphaela; Wendisch, Manfred; Wirth, Martin

Trade-wind cumuli constitute the cloud type with the highest frequency of occurrence on Earth, and it has been shown that their sensitivity to changing environmental conditions will critically influence the magnitude and pace of future global warming. Research over the last decade has pointed out the importance of the interplay between clouds, convection and circulation in controling this sensitivity. Numerical models represent this interplay in diverse ways, which translates into different responses of tradecumuli to climate perturbations. Climate models predict that the area covered by shallow cumuli at cloud base is very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, while process models suggest the opposite. To understand and resolve this contradiction, we propose to organize a field campaign aimed at quantifying the physical properties of tradecumuli (e.g., cloud fraction and water content) as a function of the large-scale environment. Beyond a better understanding of clouds-circulation coupling processes, the campaign will provide a reference data set that may be used as a benchmark for advancing the modelling and the satellite remote sensing of clouds and circulation. It will also be an opportunity for complementary investigations such as evaluating model convective parameterizations or studying the role of ocean mesoscale eddies in air-sea interactions and convective organization.

Impact of Seawater Nonlinearities on Nordic Seas Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helber, R. W.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Shriver, J. F.

2017-12-01

The Nordic Seas (Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian Seas) form an ocean basin important for Arctic-mid-latitude climate linkages. Cold fresh water from the Arctic Ocean and warm salty water from the North Atlantic Ocean meet in the Nordic Seas, where a delicate balance between temperature and salinity variability results in deep water formation. Seawater non-linearities are stronger at low temperatures and salinities making high-latitude oceans highly subject to thermbaricity and cabbeling. This presentation highlights and quantifies the impact of seawater non-linearities on the Nordic Seas circulation. We use two layered ocean circulation models, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYOCM) and the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6), that enable accurate representation of processes along and across density or neutral density surfaces. Different equations-of-state and vertical coordinates are evaluated to clarify the impact of seawater non-linearities. Present Navy systems, however, do not capture some features in the Nrodic Seas vertical structure. For example, observations from the Greenland Sea reveal a subsurface temperature maximum that deepens from approximately 1500 m during 1998 to 1800 m during 2005. We demonstrate that in terms of density, salinity is the largest source of error in Nordic Seas Navy forecasts, regional scale models can represent mesoscale features driven by thermobaricity, vertical coordinates are a critical issue in Nordic Sea circulation modeling.

Mesoscale mixing of the Denmark Strait Overflow in the Irminger Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koszalka, Inga M.; Haine, Thomas W. N.; Magaldi, Marcello G.

2017-04-01

The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) is a major export route for dense waters from the Nordic Seas forming the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important element of the climate system. Mixing processes along the DSO pathway influence its volume transport and properties contributing to the variability of the deep overturning circulation. They are poorly sampled by observations, however, which hinders development of a proper DSO representation in global circulation models. We employ a high resolution regional ocean model of the Irminger Basin to quantify impact of the mesoscale flows on DSO mixing focusing on geographical localization and the time-modulation of water property changes. The model reproduces the observed bulk warming of the DSO plume 100-200 km downstream of the Denmark Strait sill. It also reveals that mesoscale variability of the overflow ('DSO-eddies', of 20-30 km extent and a time scale of 2-5 day) modulates water property changes and turbulent mixing, diagnosed with the vertical shear of horizontal velocity and the eddy heat flux divergence. The space-time localization of the DSO mixing and warming and the role of coherent mesoscale structures should be explored by turbulence measurements and factored into the coarse circulation models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing

Increased eutrophication and degraded water quality in estuarine and coastal waters have been a worldwide environmental concern. While it is commonly accepted that anthropogenic impact plays a major role in many emerging water quality issues, natural conditions such as restricted water circulations controlled by geometry may also substantially contribute to unfavorable water quality in certain ecosystems. To elucidate the contributions from different factors, a hydrodynamic-water quality model that integrates both physical transport and pollutant loadings is particularly warranted. A preliminary modeling study using the Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) is conducted to investigate hydrodynamic circulation and low dissolved oxygen (DO)more » in Hood Canal, a representative fjord in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Because the water quality modeling work is still ongoing, this paper focuses on the progress in hydrodynamic modeling component. The hydrodynamic model has been set up using the publicly available forcing data and was calibrated against field observations or NOAA predictions for tidal elevation, current, salinity and temperature. The calibrated model was also used to estimate physical transport timescales such as residence time in the estuary. The preliminary model results demonstrate that the EFDC Hood Canal model is capable of capturing the general circulation patterns in Hood Canal, including weak tidal current and strong vertical stratification. The long residence time (i.e., on the order of 100 days for the entire estuary) also indicates that restricted water circulation could contribute to low DO in the estuary and also makes the system especially susceptible to anthropogenic disturbance, such as excess nutrient input.« less

Good News for Borehole Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rath, Volker; Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, J.; Goosse, Hugues

2010-05-01

Though the investigation of observed borehole temperatures has proved to be a valuable tool for the reconstruction of ground surface temperature histories, there are many open questions concerning the significance and accuracy of the reconstructions from these data. In particular, the temperature signal of the warming after the Last glacial Maximum (LGM) is still present in borehole temperature profiles. It influences the relatively shallow boreholes used in current paleoclimate inversions to estimate temperature changes in the last centuries. This is shown using Monte Carlo experiments on past surface temperature change, using plausible distributions for the most important parameters, i.e.,amplitude and timing of the glacial-interglacial transition, the prior average temperature, and petrophysical properties. It has been argued that the signature of the last glacial-interglacial transition could be responsible for the high amplitudes of millennial temperature reconstructions. However, in shallow boreholes the additional effect of past climate can reasonably approximated by a linear variation of temperature with depth, and thus be accommodated by a "biased" background heat flow. This is good news for borehole climate, but implies that the geological heat flow values have to be interpreted accordingly. Borehole climate reconstructions from these shallow are most probably underestimating past variability due to the diffusive character of the heat conduction process, and the smoothness constraints necessary for obtaining stable solutions of this ill-posed inverse problem. A simple correction based on subtracting an appropriate prior surface temperature history shows promising results reducing these errors considerably, also with deeper boreholes, where the heat flow signal can not be approximated linearly, and improves the comparisons with AOGCM modeling results.

Performance and stability analysis of gas-injection enhanced natural circulation in heavy-liquid-metal-cooled systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Yeon-Jong

The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance and stability of the gas-injection enhanced natural circulation in heavy-liquid-metal-cooled systems. The target system is STAR-LM, which is a 400-MWt-class advanced lead-cooled fast reactor under development by Argonne National Laboratory and Oregon State University. The primary loop of STAR-LM relies on natural circulation to eliminate main circulation pumps for enhancement of passive safety. To significantly increase the natural circulation flow rate for the incorporation of potential future power uprates, the injection of noncondensable gas into the coolant above the core is envisioned ("gas lift pump"). Reliance upon gas-injection enhanced natural circulation raises the concern of flow instability due to the relatively high temperature change in the reactor core and the two-phase flow condition in the riser. For this study, the one-dimensional flow field equations were applied to each flow section and the mixture models of two-phase flow, i.e., both the homogeneous and drift-flux equilibrium models were used in the two-phase region of the riser. For the stability analysis, the linear perturbation technique based on the frequency-domain approach was used by employing the Nyquist stability criterion and a numerical root search method. It has been shown that the thermal power of the STAR-LM natural circulation system could be increased from 400 up to 1152 MW with gas injection under the limiting void fraction of 0.30 and limiting coolant velocity of 2.0 m/s from the steady-state performance analysis. As the result of the linear stability analysis, it has turned out that the STAR-LM natural circulation system would be stable even with gas injection. In addition, through the parametric study, it has been found that the thermal inertia effects of solid structures such as fuel rod and heat exchanger tube should be considered in the stability analysis model. The results of this study will be a part of the optimized stable design of the gas-injection enhanced natural circulation of STAR-LM with substantially improved power level and economical competitiveness. Furthermore, combined with the parametric study, this research could contribute a guideline for the design of other similar heavy-liquid-metal-cooled natural circulation systems with gas injection.

Model-free adaptive control of supercritical circulating fluidized-bed boilers

DOEpatents

Cheng, George Shu-Xing; Mulkey, Steven L

2014-12-16

A novel 3-Input-3-Output (3.times.3) Fuel-Air Ratio Model-Free Adaptive (MFA) controller is introduced, which can effectively control key process variables including Bed Temperature, Excess O2, and Furnace Negative Pressure of combustion processes of advanced boilers. A novel 7-input-7-output (7.times.7) MFA control system is also described for controlling a combined 3-Input-3-Output (3.times.3) process of Boiler-Turbine-Generator (BTG) units and a 5.times.5 CFB combustion process of advanced boilers. Those boilers include Circulating Fluidized-Bed (CFB) Boilers and Once-Through Supercritical Circulating Fluidized-Bed (OTSC CFB) Boilers.

Keynesian multiplier versus velocity of money

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yougui; Xu, Yan; Liu, Li

2010-08-01

In this paper we present the relation between Keynesian multiplier and the velocity of money circulation in a money exchange model. For this purpose we modify the original exchange model by constructing the interrelation between income and expenditure. The random exchange yields an agent's income, which along with the amount of money he processed determines his expenditure. In this interactive process, both the circulation of money and Keynesian multiplier effect can be formulated. The equilibrium values of Keynesian multiplier are demonstrated to be closely related to the velocity of money. Thus the impacts of macroeconomic policies on aggregate income can be understood by concentrating solely on the variations of money circulation.

Rotor Wake Development During the First Revolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McAlister, Kenneth W.

2003-01-01

The wake behind a two-bladed model rotor in light climb was measured using particle image velocimetry, with particular emphasis on the development of the trailing vortex during the first revolution of the rotor. The distribution of vorticity was distinguished from the slightly elliptical swirl pattern. Peculiar dynamics within the void region may explain why the peak vorticity appeared to shift away from the center as the vortex aged, suggesting the onset of instability. The swirl and axial velocities (which reached 44 and 12 percent of the rotor-tip speed, respectively) were found to be asymmetric relative to the vortex center. In particular, the axial flow was composed of two concentrated zones moving in opposite directions. The radial distribution of the circulation rapidly increased in magnitude until reaching a point just beyond the core radius, after which the rate of growth decreased significantly. The core-radius circulation increased slightly with wake age, but the large-radius circulation appeared to remain relatively constant. The radial distributions of swirl velocity and vorticity exhibit self-similar behaviors, especially within the core. The diameter of the vortex core was initially about 10 percent of the rotor-blade chord, but more than doubled its size after one revolution of the rotor. According to vortex models that approximate the measured data, the core-radius circulation was about 79 percent of the large-radius circulation, and the large-radius circulation was about 67 percent of the maximum bound circulation on the rotor blade. On average, about 53 percent of the maximum bound circulation resides within the vortex core during the first revolution of the rotor.

Quantifying the dose-response relationship between circulating folate concentrations and colorectal cancer in cohort studies: a meta-analysis based on a flexible meta-regression model.

PubMed

Chuang, Shu-Chun; Rota, Matteo; Gunter, Marc J; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Eussen, Simone J P M; Vollset, Stein Emil; Ueland, Per Magne; Norat, Teresa; Ziegler, Regina G; Vineis, Paolo

2013-10-01

Most epidemiologic studies on folate intake suggest that folate may be protective against colorectal cancer, but the results on circulating (plasma or serum) folate are mostly inconclusive. We conducted a meta-analysis of case-control studies nested within prospective studies on circulating folate and colorectal cancer risk by using flexible meta-regression models to test the linear and nonlinear dose-response relationships. A total of 8 publications (10 cohorts, representing 3,477 cases and 7,039 controls) were included in the meta-analysis. The linear and nonlinear models corresponded to relative risks of 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.91, 1.02) and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.02), respectively, per 10 nmol/L of circulating folate in contrast to the reference value. The pooled relative risks when comparing the highest with the lowest category were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.99) for radioimmunoassay and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.22) for microbiological assay. Overall, our analyses suggest a null association between circulating folate and colorectal cancer risk. The stronger association for the radioimmunoassay-based studies could reflect differences in cohorts and study designs rather than assay performance. Further investigations need to integrate more accurate measurements and flexible modeling to explore the effects of folate in the presence of genetic, lifestyle, dietary, and hormone-related factors.

Bathymetric Changes Shaped by Longshore Currents on a Natural Beach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reilly, W. L.; Slinn, D.; Plant, N.

2004-12-01

The goal of the project is to simulate beach morphology on time scales of hours to days. Our approach is to develop finite difference solutions from a coupled modeling system consisting of existing nearshore circulation, wave, and sediment flux models. We initialize the model with bathymetry from a dense data set north of the pier at the Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC. We integrate the model system forward in time and compare the results of the hind-cast of the beach evolution with the field observations. The model domain extends 1000 meters in the alongshore direction and 500 meters in the cross-shore direction with 5 meter grid spacing. The bathymetry is interpolated and filtered from CRAB transects. A second-degree exponential smoothing method is used to return the cross-shore beach profile near the edges of the modeled domain back to the mean alongshore profile, because the circulation model implements periodic boundary conditions in the alongshore direction. The offshore wave height and direction are taken from the 8-meter bipod at the FRF and input to the wave-model, SWAN (Spectral Wave Nearshore), with a Gaussian-shaped frequency spectrum and a directional spreading of 5 degrees. A constant depth induced wave breaking parameter of 0.73 is used. The resulting calculated wave induced force per unit surface area (gradient of the radiation stress) output from SWAN is used to drive the currents in the circulation model. The circulation model is based on the free-surface non-linear shallow water equations and uses the fourth order compact scheme to calculate spatial derivatives and a third order Adams-Bashforth time discretization scheme. Free slip, symmetry boundary conditions are applied at both the shoreline and offshore boundaries. The time averaged sediment flux is calculated at each location after one hour of circulation. The sediment flux model is based on the approach of Bagnold and includes approximations for both bed-load and suspended load. The bathymetry is then updated by computing the divergence of the time averaged sediment fluxes. The process is then repeated using the updated bathymetry in both SWAN and the circulation model. The cycle continues for a simulation of 10 hours. The results of bathymetric change vary for different time-dependent wave conditions and initial bathymetric profiles. Typical results indicate that for wave heights on the order of one meter, shoreline advancement and sandbar evolution is observed on the order of tens of centimeters.

More robust regional precipitation projection from selected CMIP5 models based on multiple-dimensional metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Wang, L.; Leung, L. R.; Lin, G.; Lu, J.; Gao, Y.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Projecting precipitation changes is challenging because of incomplete understanding of the climate system and biases and uncertainty in climate models. In East Asia where summer precipitation is dominantly influenced by the monsoon circulation and the global models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), however, give various projection of precipitation change for 21th century. It is critical for community to know which models' projection are more reliable in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. In this study we defined multiple-dimensional metrics, measuring the model performance in simulating the present-day of large-scale circulation, regional precipitation and relationship between them. The large-scale circulation features examined in this study include the lower tropospheric southwesterly winds, the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South China Sea Subtropical High, and the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere. Each of these circulation features transport moisture to East Asia, enhancing the moist static energy and strengthening the Meiyu moisture front that is the primary mechanism for precipitation generation in eastern China. Based on these metrics, 30 models in CMIP5 ensemble are classified into three groups. Models in the top performing group projected regional precipitation patterns that are more similar to each other than the bottom or middle performing group and consistently projected statistically significant increasing trends in two of the large-scale circulation indices and precipitation. In contrast, models in the bottom or middle performing group projected small drying or no trends in precipitation. We also find the models that only reasonably reproduce the observed precipitation climatology does not guarantee more reliable projection of future precipitation because good simulation skill could be achieved through compensating errors from multiple sources. Herein the potential for more robust projections of precipitation changes at regional scale is demonstrated through the use of discriminating metric to subsample the multi-model ensemble. The results from this study provides insights for how to select models from CMIP ensemble to project regional climate and hydrological cycle changes.

Hydrographic biases in global coupled climate models and their relation to the meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plancherel, Yves

2015-01-01

Comparison of the volumetric θ/S distribution of models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) indicates that these models differ widely in their ability to represent the thermohaline properties of water masses. Relationships between features of the quasi-equilibrium hydrographic mean state of these models and aspects of their overturning circulations are investigated. This is achieved quantitatively with the help of seven diagnostic hydrographic stations. These few stations were specifically selected to provide a minimalist schematic of the global water mass system. Relationships between hydrographic conditions in the North Atlantic measured with a subset of these stations suggest that hydrographic properties in the subpolar North Atlantic are set by the circulation field of each model, pointing towards deficiencies in the models ability to resolve the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current system as a major limitation. Since diapycnal mixing and viscosity parameterizations differ across CMIP3 models and exert a strong control on the overturning, it is likely that these architectural differences ultimately explain the main across-model differences in overturning circulation, temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic. The analysis of properties across the quasi-equilibrium states of the CMIP3 models agrees with previously reported relationships between meridional steric height gradients or horizontal density contrasts at depth and the strength of the deep water cell. Robust relationships are also found in the Southern Ocean linking measures of vertical stratification with the strength of the abyssal circulations across the CMIP3 models. Consistent correlations between aspects of the quasi-equilibrium hydrography in the Southern Ocean and the sensitivity of the abyssal cell to increasing radiative forcing by 2100 were found. Using these relations in conjunction with modern hydrographic observations to interpolate the fate of the abyssal cell suggests that the Southern abyssal cell may decrease by roughly 20 % by the end of the century. Similar systematic relationships between the quasi-equilibrium hydrographic states of the models and the sensitivity of their Atlantic deep water cell could not be found.

The diagnosis and forecast system of hydrometeorological characteristics for the White, Barents, Kara and Pechora Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fomin, Vladimir; Diansky, Nikolay; Gusev, Anatoly; Kabatchenko, Ilia; Panasenkova, Irina

2017-04-01

The diagnosis and forecast system for simulating hydrometeorological characteristics of the Russian Western Arctic seas is presented. It performs atmospheric forcing computation with the regional non-hydrostatic atmosphere model Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with spatial resolution 15 km, as well as computation of circulation, sea level, temperature, salinity and sea ice with the marine circulation model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) with spatial resolution 2.7 km, and the computation of wind wave parameters using the Russian wind-wave model (RWWM) with spatial resolution 5 km. Verification of the meteorological characteristics is done for air temperature, air pressure, wind velocity, water temperature, currents, sea level anomaly, wave characteristics such as wave height and wave period. The results of the hydrometeorological characteristic verification are presented for both retrospective and forecast computations. The retrospective simulation of the hydrometeorological characteristics for the White, Barents, Kara and Pechora Seas was performed with the diagnosis and forecast system for the period 1986-2015. The important features of the Kara Sea circulation are presented. Water exchange between Pechora and Kara Seas is described. The importance is shown of using non-hydrostatic atmospheric circulation model for the atmospheric forcing computation in coastal areas. According to the computation results, extreme values of hydrometeorological characteristics were obtained for the Russian Western Arctic seas.

Past Asian Monsoon circulation from multiple tree-ring proxies and models (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Herzog, M.; Hernandez, M.; Martin-Benito, D.; Gagen, M.; LeGrande, A. N.; Ummenhofer, C.; Buckley, B.; Cook, E. R.

2013-12-01

The Asian monsoon can be characterized in terms of precipitation variability as well as features of regional atmospheric circulation across a range of spatial and temporal scales. While multicentury time series of tree-ring widths at hundreds of sites across Asia provide estimates of past rainfall, the oxygen isotope ratios of annual rings at some of these sites can reveal broader regional atmosphere-ocean dynamics. Here we present a replicated, multicentury stable isotope series from Vietnam that integrates the influence of monsoon circulation on water isotopes. Stronger (weaker) monsoon flow over Indochina is associated with lower (higher) oxygen isotope values in our long-lived tropical conifers. Ring width and isotopes show particular coherence at multidecadal time scales, and together allow past precipitation amount and circulation strength to be disentangled. Combining multiple tree-ring proxies with simulations from isotope-enabled and paleoclimate general circulation models allows us to independently assess the mechanisms responsible for proxy formation and to evaluate how monsoon rainfall is influenced by ocean-atmosphere interactions at timescales from interannual to multidecadal.

Response to perturbations for granular flow in a hopper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wambaugh, John F.; Behringer, Robert P.; Matthews, John V.; Gremaud, Pierre A.

2007-11-01

We experimentally investigate the response to perturbations of circular symmetry for dense granular flow inside a three-dimensional right-conical hopper. These experiments consist of particle tracking velocimetry for the flow at the outer boundary of the hopper. We are able to test commonly used constitutive relations and observe granular flow phenomena that we can model numerically. Unperturbed conical hopper flow has been described as a radial velocity field with no azimuthal component. Guided by numerical models based upon continuum descriptions, we find experimental evidence for secondary, azimuthal circulation in response to perturbation of the symmetry with respect to gravity by tilting. For small perturbations we can discriminate between constitutive relations, based upon the agreement between the numerical predictions they produce and our experimental results. We find that the secondary circulation can be suppressed as wall friction is varied, also in agreement with numerical predictions. For large tilt angles we observe the abrupt onset of circulation for parameters where circulation was previously suppressed. Finally, we observe that for large tilt angles the fluctuations in velocity grow, independent of the onset of circulation.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-12-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

PubMed Central

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

2014-12-08

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Improved short-term variability in the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Häusler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Maute, A.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Gasperini, F.

2014-08-01

We report on a new source of tidal variability in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). Lower boundary forcing of the TIME-GCM for a simulation of November-December 2009 based on 3-hourly Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) reanalysis data includes day-to-day variations in both diurnal and semidiurnal tides of tropospheric origin. Comparison with TIME-GCM results from a heretofore standard simulation that includes climatological tropospheric tides from the global-scale wave model reveal evidence of the impacts of MERRA forcing throughout the model domain, including measurable tidal variability in the TIME-GCM upper thermosphere. Additional comparisons with measurements made by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite show improved TIME-GCM capability to capture day-to-day variations in thermospheric density for the November-December 2009 period with the new MERRA lower boundary forcing.

Tropical forecasting - Predictability perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.

1989-01-01

Results are presented of classical predictability studies and forecast experiments with observed initial conditions to show the nature of initial error growth and final error equilibration for the tropics and midlatitudes, separately. It is found that the theoretical upper limit of tropical circulation predictability is far less than for midlatitudes. The error growth for a complete general circulation model is compared to a dry version of the same model in which there is no prognostic equation for moisture, and diabatic heat sources are prescribed. It is found that the growth rate of synoptic-scale errors for the dry model is significantly smaller than for the moist model, suggesting that the interactions between dynamics and moist processes are among the important causes of atmospheric flow predictability degradation. Results are then presented of numerical experiments showing that correct specification of the slowly varying boundary condition of SST produces significant improvement in the prediction of time-averaged circulation and rainfall over the tropics.

THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF THE HOT JUPITER WASP-43b: COMPARING THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODELS TO SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kataria, Tiffany; Showman, Adam P.; Fortney, Jonathan J.

The hot Jupiter WASP-43b (2 M{sub J}, 1 R{sub J}, T {sub orb} = 19.5 hr) has now joined the ranks of transiting hot Jupiters HD 189733b and HD 209458b as an exoplanet with a large array of observational constraints. Because WASP-43b receives a similar stellar flux as HD 209458b but has a rotation rate four times faster and a higher gravity, studying WASP-43b probes the effect of rotation rate and gravity on the circulation when stellar irradiation is held approximately constant. Here we present three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation models of WASP-43b, exploring the effects of composition, metallicity, and frictional drag. We find thatmore » the circulation regime of WASP-43b is not unlike other hot Jupiters, with equatorial superrotation that yields an eastward-shifted hotspot and large day-night temperature variations (∼600 K at photospheric pressures). We then compare our model results to Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/WFC3 spectrophotometric phase curve measurements of WASP-43b from 1.12 to 1.65 μm. Our results show the 5× solar model light curve provides a good match to the data, with a peak flux phase offset and planet/star flux ratio that is similar to observations; however, the model nightside appears to be brighter. Nevertheless, our 5× solar model provides an excellent match to the WFC3 dayside emission spectrum. This is a major success, as the result is a natural outcome of the 3D dynamics with no model tuning. These results demonstrate that 3D circulation models can help interpret exoplanet atmospheric observations, even at high resolution, and highlight the potential for future observations with HST, James Webb Space Telescope, and other next-generation telescopes.« less

Modeling South Pacific Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Global Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, David M.; Jenkins, Adrian; Jacobs, Stanley S.

2001-01-01

The objective of this project has been to improve the modeling of interactions between large Antarctic ice shelves and adjacent regions of the Southern Ocean. Our larger goal is to gain a better understanding of the extent to which the ocean controls ice shelf attrition, thereby influencing the size and dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Melting and freezing under ice shelves also impacts seawater properties, regional upwelling and sinking and the larger-scale ocean circulation. Modifying an isopycnal coordinate general circulation model for use in sub-ice shelf cavities, we found that the abrupt change in water column thickness at an ice shelf front does not form a strong barrier to buoyancy-driven circulation across the front. Outflow along the ice shelf base, driven by melting of the thickest ice, is balanced by deep inflow. Substantial effort was focused on the Filchner-Ronne cavity, where other models have been applied and time-series records are available from instruments suspended beneath the ice. A model comparison indicated that observed changes in the production of High Salinity Shelf Water could have a major impact on circulation within the cavity. This water propagates into the cavity with an asymmetric seasonal signal that has similar phasing and shape in the model and observations, and can be related to winter production at the sea surface. Even remote parts of the sub-ice shelf cavity are impacted by external forcing on sub-annual time scales. This shows that cavity circulations and products, and therefore cavity shape, will respond to interannual variability in sea ice production and longer-term climate change. The isopycnal model gives generally lower net melt rates than have been obtained from other models and oceanographic data, perhaps due to its boundary layer formulation, or the lack of tidal forcing. Work continues on a manuscript describing the Ross cavity results.

A finite volume model simulation for the Broughton Archipelago, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foreman, M. G. G.; Czajko, P.; Stucchi, D. J.; Guo, M.

A finite volume circulation model is applied to the Broughton Archipelago region of British Columbia, Canada and used to simulate the three-dimensional velocity, temperature, and salinity fields that are required by a companion model for sea lice behaviour, development, and transport. The absence of a high resolution atmospheric model necessitated the installation of nine weather stations throughout the region and the development of a simple data assimilation technique that accounts for topographic steering in interpolating/extrapolating the measured winds to the entire model domain. The circulation model is run for the period of March 13-April 3, 2008 and correlation coefficients between observed and model currents, comparisons between model and observed tidal harmonics, and root mean square differences between observed and model temperatures and salinities all showed generally good agreement. The importance of wind forcing in the near-surface circulation, differences between this simulation and one computed with another model, the effects of bathymetric smoothing on channel velocities, further improvements necessary for this model to accurately simulate conditions in May and June, and the implication of near-surface current patterns at a critical location in the 'migration corridor' of wild juvenile salmon, are also discussed.

In vivo acoustic and photoacoustic focusing of circulating cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galanzha, Ekaterina I.; Viegas, Mark G.; Malinsky, Taras I.; Melerzanov, Alexander V.; Juratli, Mazen A.; Sarimollaoglu, Mustafa; Nedosekin, Dmitry A.; Zharov, Vladimir P.

2016-03-01

In vivo flow cytometry using vessels as natural tubes with native cell flows has revolutionized the study of rare circulating tumor cells in a complex blood background. However, the presence of many blood cells in the detection volume makes it difficult to count each cell in this volume. We introduce method for manipulation of circulating cells in vivo with the use of gradient acoustic forces induced by ultrasound and photoacoustic waves. In a murine model, we demonstrated cell trapping, redirecting and focusing in blood and lymph flow into a tight stream, noninvasive wall-free transportation of blood, and the potential for photoacoustic detection of sickle cells without labeling and of leukocytes targeted by functionalized nanoparticles. Integration of cell focusing with intravital imaging methods may provide a versatile biological tool for single-cell analysis in circulation, with a focus on in vivo needleless blood tests, and preclinical studies of human diseases in animal models.

Optimization of Progressive Freeze Concentration on Apple Juice via Response Surface Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsuri, S.; Amran, N. A.; Jusoh, M.

2018-05-01

In this work, a progressive freeze concentration (PFC) system was developed to concentrate apple juice and was optimized by response surface methodology (RSM). The effects of various operating conditions such as coolant temperature, circulation flowrate, circulation time and shaking speed to effective partition constant (K) were investigated. Five different level of central composite design (CCD) was employed to search for optimal concentration of concentrated apple juice. A full quadratic model for K was established by using method of least squares. A coefficient of determination (R2) of this model was found to be 0.7792. The optimum conditions were found to be coolant temperature = -10.59 °C, circulation flowrate = 3030.23 mL/min, circulation time = 67.35 minutes and shaking speed = 30.96 ohm. A validation experiment was performed to evaluate the accuracy of the optimization procedure and the best K value of 0.17 was achieved under the optimized conditions.

In vivo acoustic and photoacoustic focusing of circulating cells

PubMed Central

Galanzha, Ekaterina I.; Viegas, Mark G.; Malinsky, Taras I.; Melerzanov, Alexander V.; Juratli, Mazen A.; Sarimollaoglu, Mustafa; Nedosekin, Dmitry A.; Zharov, Vladimir P.

2016-01-01

In vivo flow cytometry using vessels as natural tubes with native cell flows has revolutionized the study of rare circulating tumor cells in a complex blood background. However, the presence of many blood cells in the detection volume makes it difficult to count each cell in this volume. We introduce method for manipulation of circulating cells in vivo with the use of gradient acoustic forces induced by ultrasound and photoacoustic waves. In a murine model, we demonstrated cell trapping, redirecting and focusing in blood and lymph flow into a tight stream, noninvasive wall-free transportation of blood, and the potential for photoacoustic detection of sickle cells without labeling and of leukocytes targeted by functionalized nanoparticles. Integration of cell focusing with intravital imaging methods may provide a versatile biological tool for single-cell analysis in circulation, with a focus on in vivo needleless blood tests, and preclinical studies of human diseases in animal models. PMID:26979811

The puzzling Venusian polar atmospheric structure reproduced by a general circulation model

PubMed Central

Ando, Hiroki; Sugimoto, Norihiko; Takagi, Masahiro; Kashimura, Hiroki; Imamura, Takeshi; Matsuda, Yoshihisa

2016-01-01

Unlike the polar vortices observed in the Earth, Mars and Titan atmospheres, the observed Venus polar vortex is warmer than the midlatitudes at cloud-top levels (∼65 km). This warm polar vortex is zonally surrounded by a cold latitude band located at ∼60° latitude, which is a unique feature called ‘cold collar' in the Venus atmosphere. Although these structures have been observed in numerous previous observations, the formation mechanism is still unknown. Here we perform numerical simulations of the Venus atmospheric circulation using a general circulation model, and succeed in reproducing these puzzling features in close agreement with the observations. The cold collar and warm polar region are attributed to the residual mean meridional circulation enhanced by the thermal tide. The present results strongly suggest that the thermal tide is crucial for the structure of the Venus upper polar atmosphere at and above cloud levels. PMID:26832195

Omalizumab therapy is associated with reduced circulating basophil populations in asthmatic children

PubMed Central

Hill, D.A.; Siracusa, M.; Ruymann, K.; Wojno, E.D. Tait; Artis, D.; Spergel, J.M.

2014-01-01

Basophils have been implicated in promoting the early development of TH2 cell responses in some murine models of TH2 cytokine-associated inflammation. However, the specific role of basophils in allergic asthma remains an active area of research. Recent studies in animal models and human subjects suggest that IgE may regulate the homeostasis of human basophil populations. Here, we examine basophil populations in children with severe asthma before and during therapy with the IgE directed monoclonal antibody omalizumab. Omalizumab therapy was associated with a significant reduction in circulating basophil numbers, a finding that was concurrent with improved clinical outcomes. The observation that circulating basophils are reduced following omalizumab therapy supports a mechanistic link between IgE levels and circulating basophil populations and may provide new insights into one mechanism by which omalizumab improves asthma symptoms. PMID:24611974

Normal growth and development in the absence of hepatic insulin-like growth factor I

PubMed Central

Yakar, Shoshana; Liu, Jun-Li; Stannard, Bethel; Butler, Andrew; Accili, Domenici; Sauer, Brian; LeRoith, Derek

1999-01-01

The somatomedin hypothesis proposed that insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) was a hepatically derived circulating mediator of growth hormone and is a crucial factor for postnatal growth and development. To reassess this hypothesis, we have used the Cre/loxP recombination system to delete the igf1 gene exclusively in the liver. igf1 gene deletion in the liver abrogated expression of igf1 mRNA and caused a dramatic reduction in circulating IGF-I levels. However, growth as determined by body weight, body length, and femoral length did not differ from wild-type littermates. Although our model proves that hepatic IGF-I is indeed the major contributor to circulating IGF-I levels in mice it challenges the concept that circulating IGF-I is crucial for normal postnatal growth. Rather, our model provides direct evidence for the importance of the autocrine/paracrine role of IGF-I. PMID:10377413

Eddy Resolving Global Ocean Prediction including Tides

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic . Journal of Geophysical Research vol 118, doi:10.1002/jgrc,20065. [published, refereed] ...global ocean circulation model was examined using results from years 2005-2009 of a seven and a half year 1/12.5° global simulation that resolves...internal tides, along with barotropic tides and the eddying general circulation . We examined tidal amplitudes computed using 18 183-day windows that

Interannual to decadal variability of circulation in the northern Japan/East Sea, 1958-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, Dmitry; Stepanova, Victoriia; Gusev, Anatoly

2015-04-01

We use a numerical ocean model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) and atmospheric forcing data extracted from the CORE (Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiments) dataset and reconstruct a circulation in the Japan/East Sea (JES) from 1958 to 2006 and its interannual and decadal variability in the intermediate and abyssal layers in the northern JES. It is founded that the circulation is cyclonic over the course of a climatological year. The circulation increases in spring and decreases in autumn. We analyzes the relative vorticity (RV) averaged over the Japan Basin (JB) and show that the variability is characterized by the interannual oscillations (2.3, 3.7 and 4.7 years) and decadal variability (9.5 and 14.3 years). The spectrum structure of the average RV variability does not change with depth; however, the energy of the decadal oscillations decreases in contrast to that of the interannual oscillations. We analyze monthly anomalies of the wind stress curl and sensible heat flux and reveal that interannual variability (3-4 years) of the circulation over the JB result from 4-year variability of the wind stress curl. In contrast, the decadal variability (period of 9.5 years) of the circulation over the JB is generated by both the wind stress curl and the decadal variability in deep convection.

Effect of wave-current interaction on wind-driven circulation in narrow, shallow embayments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Signell, Richard P.; Beardsley, Robert C.; Graber, H. C.; Capotondi, A.

1990-01-01

The effect of wind waves on the steady wind-driven circulation in a narrow, shallow bay is investigated with a two-dimensional (y, z) circulation model and the Grant and Madsen [1979] bottom-boundary layer model, which includes wave-current interaction. A constant wind stress is applied in the along-channel x direction to a channel with a constant cross-sectional profile h(y). The wind-induced flushing of shallow bays is shown to be sensitive to both the shape of the cross section and the effects of surface waves. The flushing increases with increasing , where h′ is the standard deviation of cross-channel depth and  is the mean depth. This is consistent with the findings of Hearn et al. [1987]. The flushing decreases, however, with the inclusion of surface wave effects which act to increase the bottom drag felt by the currents. Increasing effective bottom friction reduces the strength of the circulation, while the along-bay surface slope, bottom stress and the structure of current profiles remain nearly unchanged. An implication of the circulation dependence on wave-current interaction is that low-frequency oscillatory winds may drive a mean circulation when the wave field changes with wind direction.x

Simulation of mesoscale circulation in the Tatar Strait of the Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomarev, V. I.; Fayman, P. A.; Prants, S. V.; Budyansky, M. V.; Uleysky, M. Yu.

2018-06-01

The eddy-resolved ocean circulation model RIAMOM (Lee et al., 2003) is used to analyze seasonal variability of mesoscale circulation in the Tatar Strait of the Japan Sea. The model domain is a vast area including the northern Japan Sea, Okhotsk Sea and adjacent region in the Pacific Ocean. A numerical experiment with a horizontal 1/18° resolution has been carried out under realistic meteorological conditions from the ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis with restoring of surface temperature and salinity. The simulated seasonal variability of both the current system and mesoscale eddy dynamics in the Tatar Strait is in a good agreement with temperature and salinity distributions of oceanographic observation data collected during various seasons and years. Two general circulation regimes in the Strait have been found. The circulation regime changes from summer to winter due to seasonal change of the North Asian Monsoon. On a synoptic time scale, the similar change of the circulation regime occurs due to change of the southeastern wind to the northwestern one when the meteorological situation with an anticyclone over the Okhotsk Sea changes to that with a strong cyclone. The Lagrangian maps illustrate seasonal changes in direction of the main currents and in polarity and location of mesoscale eddies in the Strait.

Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

PubMed

Schmittner, Andreas

2005-03-31

Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period. Projections with climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate-ecosystem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations, a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass, owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord, and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Mars Pathfinder meteorological observations on the basis of results of an atmospheric global circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forget, Francois; Hourdin, F.; Talagrand, O.

1994-01-01

The Mars Pathfinder Meteorological Package (ASI/MET) will measure the local pressure, temperature, and winds at its future landing site, somewhere between the latitudes 0 deg N and 30 deg N. Comparable measurements have already been obtained at the surface of Mars by the Viking Landers at 22 deg N (VL1) and 48 deg N (VL2), providing much useful information on the martian atmosphere. In particular the pressure measurements contain very instructive information on the global atmospheric circulation. At the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD), we have analyzed and simulated these measurements with a martian atmospheric global circulation model (GCM), which was the first to simulate the martian atmospheric circulation over more than 1 year. The model is able to reproduce rather accurately many observed features of the martian atmosphere, including the long- and short-period oscillations of the surface pressure observed by the Viking landers. From a meteorological point of view, we think that a landing site located near or at the equator would be an interesting choice.

An Improved Heat Budget Estimation Including Bottom Effects for General Ocean Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carder, Kendall; Warrior, Hari; Otis, Daniel; Chen, R. F.

2001-01-01

This paper studies the effects of the underwater light field on heat-budget calculations of general ocean circulation models for shallow waters. The presence of a bottom significantly alters the estimated heat budget in shallow waters, which affects the corresponding thermal stratification and hence modifies the circulation. Based on the data collected during the COBOP field experiment near the Bahamas, we have used a one-dimensional turbulence closure model to show the influence of the bottom reflection and absorption on the sea surface temperature field. The water depth has an almost one-to-one correlation with the temperature rise. Effects of varying the bottom albedo by replacing the sea grass bed with a coral sand bottom, also has an appreciable effect on the heat budget of the shallow regions. We believe that the differences in the heat budget for the shallow areas will have an influence on the local circulation processes and especially on the evaporative and long-wave heat losses for these areas. The ultimate effects on humidity and cloudiness of the region are expected to be significant as well.

3D General Circulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere of Jupiter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zube, Nicholas Gerard; Zhang, Xi; Li, Cheng; Le, Tianhao

2017-10-01

The characteristics of Jupiter’s large-scale stratospheric circulation remain largely unknown. Detailed distributions of temperature and photochemical species have been provided by recent observations [1], but have not yet been accurately reproduced by middle atmosphere general circulation models (GCM). Jupiter’s stratosphere and upper troposphere are influenced by radiative forcing from solar insolation and infrared cooling from hydrogen and hydrocarbons, as well as waves propagating from the underlying troposphere [2]. The relative significance of radiative and mechanical forcing on stratospheric circulation is still being debated [3]. Here we present a 3D GCM of Jupiter’s atmosphere with a correlated-k radiative transfer scheme. The simulation results are compared with observations. We analyze the impact of model parameters on the stratospheric temperature distribution and dynamical features. Finally, we discuss future tracer transport and gravity wave parameterization schemes that may be able to accurately simulate the middle atmosphere dynamics of Jupiter and other giant planets.[1] Kunde et al. 2004, Science 305, 1582.[2] Zhang et al. 2013a, EGU General Assembly, EGU2013-5797-2.[3] Conrath 1990, Icarus, 83, 255-281.

Importance of ocean salinity for climate and habitability

PubMed Central

Cullum, Jodie; Stevens, David P.; Joshi, Manoj M.

2016-01-01

Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies. PMID:27044090

Importance of ocean salinity for climate and habitability.

PubMed

Cullum, Jodie; Stevens, David P; Joshi, Manoj M

2016-04-19

Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies.

Tropical atmospheric circulations with humidity effects.

PubMed

Hsia, Chun-Hsiung; Lin, Chang-Shou; Ma, Tian; Wang, Shouhong

2015-01-08

The main objective of this article is to study the effect of the moisture on the planetary scale atmospheric circulation over the tropics. The modelling we adopt is the Boussinesq equations coupled with a diffusive equation of humidity, and the humidity-dependent heat source is modelled by a linear approximation of the humidity. The rigorous mathematical analysis is carried out using the dynamic transition theory. In particular, we obtain mixed transitions, also known as random transitions, as described in Ma & Wang (2010 Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. 26 , 1399-1417. (doi:10.3934/dcds.2010.26.1399); 2011 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28 , 612-622. (doi:10.1007/s00376-010-9089-0)). The analysis also indicates the need to include turbulent friction terms in the model to obtain correct convection scales for the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulations, leading in particular to the right critical temperature gradient and the length scale for the Walker circulation. In short, the analysis shows that the effect of moisture lowers the magnitude of the critical thermal Rayleigh number and does not change the essential characteristics of dynamical behaviour of the system.

Subtle exchange model of flow depended on the blood cell shape to enhance the micro-circulation in capillary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Iatneng

2012-02-01

In general the exchange of gases or other material in capillary system is conceptualized by the diffusion effect. But in this model, we investigate a micro-flow pattern by simulation and computation on a micro-exchange model in which the blood cell is a considered factor, especially on its shape. It shows that the cell benefits the circulation while it is moving in the capillary. In the study, the flow detail near the cell surface is mathematically analyzed, such that the Navier-Stokes equations are applied and the viscous factor is also briefly considered. For having a driven force to the motion of micro-circulation, a breathing mode is suggested to approximately compute on the flow rate in the blood capillary during the transfer of cell. The rate is also used to estimate the enhancement to the circulation in additional to the outcome of diffusion. Moreover in the research, the shape change of capillary wall under pressure influence is another element in the beginning calculation for the effect in the assistance to cell motion.

Circulatory shear flow alters the viability and proliferation of circulating colon cancer cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Rong; Emery, Travis; Zhang, Yongguo; Xia, Yuxuan; Sun, Jun; Wan, Jiandi

2016-06-01

During cancer metastasis, circulating tumor cells constantly experience hemodynamic shear stress in the circulation. Cellular responses to shear stress including cell viability and proliferation thus play critical roles in cancer metastasis. Here, we developed a microfluidic approach to establish a circulatory microenvironment and studied circulating human colon cancer HCT116 cells in response to a variety of magnitude of shear stress and circulating time. Our results showed that cell viability decreased with the increase of circulating time, but increased with the magnitude of wall shear stress. Proliferation of cells survived from circulation could be maintained when physiologically relevant wall shear stresses were applied. High wall shear stress (60.5 dyne/cm2), however, led to decreased cell proliferation at long circulating time (1 h). We further showed that the expression levels of β-catenin and c-myc, proliferation regulators, were significantly enhanced by increasing wall shear stress. The presented study provides a new insight to the roles of circulatory shear stress in cellular responses of circulating tumor cells in a physiologically relevant model, and thus will be of interest for the study of cancer cell mechanosensing and cancer metastasis.

Equatorial waves in the NCAR stratospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boville, B. A.

1985-01-01

Equatorially trapped wave modes are very important in the tropical stratospheric momentum balance. Kelvin waves and mixed Rossby-gravity waves are believed to be responsible for the quasi-biennial oscillation of the zonal winds in the equatorial lower stratosphere. Both Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves have been identified in observations and in numerical models. Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves are identified in a general circulation model extending from the surface into the mesosphere and looks at the effect on the waves of lowering the top of the model.

Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

1975-01-01

Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

Role of dust direct radiative effect on the tropical rain belt over Middle East and North Africa: A high-resolution AGCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2015-05-01

To investigate the influence of direct radiative effect of dust on the tropical summer rain belt across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the present study utilizes the high-resolution capability of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model, the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model. Ensembles of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project style simulations have been conducted with and without dust radiative impacts, to differentiate the influence of dust on the tropical rain belt. The analysis focuses on summer season. The results highlight the role of dust-induced responses in global- and regional-scale circulations in determining the strength and the latitudinal extent of the tropical rain belt. A significant response in the strength and position of the local Hadley circulation is predicted in response to meridionally asymmetric distribution of dust and the corresponding radiative effects. Significant responses are also found in regional circulation features such as African Easterly Jet and West African Monsoon circulation. Consistent with these dynamic responses at various scales, the tropical rain belt across MENA strengthens and shifts northward. Importantly, the summer precipitation over the semiarid strip south of Sahara, including Sahel, increases up to 20%. As this region is characterized by the "Sahel drought," the predicted precipitation sensitivity to the dust loading over this region has a wide range of socioeconomic implications. Overall, the study demonstrates the extreme importance of incorporating dust radiative effects and the corresponding circulation responses at various scales, in the simulations and future projections of this region's climate.

Mechanisms for the extratropical QBO in circulation and ozone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kinnersley, J.S.; Tung, K.K.

1999-06-15

A two-and-a-half-dimensional interactive stratospheric model, whose equatorial zonal wind was relaxed toward the observed Singapore zonal wind, was able to reproduce much of the observed quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) variability in the column ozone, in its vertical distribution in the low and middle latitudes, and also in the high southern polar latitudes. To reveal the mechanisms responsible for producing the modeled QBO signal over the globe, several control runs were also performed. The authors find that the ozone variability in the lower stratosphere--and hence also in the column--is determined mainly by two dynamical mechanisms. In the low to midlatitudes it ismore » created by a direct QBO circulation. Unlike the classic picture of a nonseasonal two-cell QBO circulation symmetric about the equator, a more correct picture is a direct QBO circulation that is strongly seasonal, driven by the seasonality in diabatic heating, which is very weak in the summer hemisphere and strong in the winter hemisphere at low and midlatitudes. Transport by the climatological circulation and diffusion is found to be ineffective. At high latitudes, there is again a circulation anomaly, but here it is induced by the modulation of the planetary wave potential vorticity flux by the QBO. This so-called Holton-Tan mechanism is responsible for most of the QBO ozone signal poleward of 60[degree]. During spring in the modeled northern polar region, chaotic behavior is another important source of interannual variability, in addition to the interannual variability of planetary wave sources in the troposphere previously studied by the authors.« less

Understanding the West African Monsoon from the analysis of diabatic heating distributions as simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, G. M.; Peyrillé, P.; Roehrig, R.; Rio, C.; Caian, M.; Bellon, G.; Codron, F.; Lafore, J.-P.; Poan, D. E.; Idelkadi, A.

2017-03-01

Vertical and horizontal distributions of diabatic heating in the West African monsoon (WAM) region as simulated by four model families are analyzed in order to assess the physical processes that affect the WAM circulation. For each model family, atmosphere-only runs of their CMIP5 configurations are compared with more recent configurations which are on the development path toward CMIP6. The various configurations of these models exhibit significant differences in their heating/moistening profiles, related to the different representation of physical processes such as boundary layer mixing, convection, large-scale condensation and radiative heating/cooling. There are also significant differences in the models' simulation of WAM rainfall patterns and circulations. The weaker the radiative cooling in the Saharan region, the larger the ascent in the rainband and the more intense the monsoon flow, while the latitude of the rainband is related to heating in the Gulf of Guinea region and on the northern side of the Saharan heat low. Overall, this work illustrates the difficulty experienced by current climate models in representing the characteristics of monsoon systems, but also that we can still use them to understand the interactions between local subgrid physical processes and the WAM circulation. Moreover, our conclusions regarding the relationship between errors in the large-scale circulation of the WAM and the structure of the heating by small-scale processes will motivate future studies and model development.

Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models (in English;Russian)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burtis, M.D.; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G.

1996-10-01

This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

Documentation of a ground hydrology parameterization for use in the GISS atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, J. D.; Aleano, J.; Bock, P.

1978-01-01

The moisture transport processes related to the earth's surface relevant to the ground circulation model GCM are presented. The GHM parametrizations considered are: (1) ground wetness and soil parameters; (2) precipitation; (3) evapotranspiration; (4) surface storage of snow and ice; and (5) runout. The computational aspects of the GHM using computer programs and flow charts are described.

High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

Numerical Simulation of Regional Circulation in the Monterey Bay Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tseng, Y. H.; Dietrich, D. E.; Ferziger, J. H.

2003-01-01

The objective of this study is to produce a high-resolution numerical model of Mon- terey Bay area in which the dynamics are determined by the complex geometry of the coastline, steep bathymetry, and the in uence of the water masses that constitute the CCS. Our goal is to simulate the regional-scale ocean response with realistic dynamics (annual cycle), forcing, and domain. In particular, we focus on non-hydrostatic e ects (by comparing the results of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models) and the role of complex geometry, i.e. the bay and submarine canyon, on the nearshore circulation. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is the rst to simulate the regional circulation in the vicinity of Monterey Bay using a non-hydrostatic model. Section 2 introduces the high resolution Monterey Bay area regional model (MBARM). Section 3 provides the results and veri cation with mooring and satellite data. Section 4 compares the results of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic models.

On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Matthias; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2009-01-01

One of the most important large-scale ocean current systems for Earth's climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we review its stability properties and present new model simulations to study the AMOC's hysteresis response to freshwater perturbations. We employ seven different versions of an Ocean General Circulation Model by using a highly accurate tracer advection scheme, which minimizes the problem of numerical diffusion. We find that a characteristic freshwater hysteresis also exists in the predominantly wind-driven, low-diffusion limit of the AMOC. However, the shape of the hysteresis changes, indicating that a convective instability rather than the advective Stommel feedback plays a dominant role. We show that model errors in the mean climate can make the hysteresis disappear, and we investigate how model innovations over the past two decades, like new parameterizations and mixing schemes, affect the AMOC stability. Finally, we discuss evidence that current climate models systematically overestimate the stability of the AMOC. PMID:19897722

Recent changes in the summer monsoon circulation and their impact on dynamics and thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratik, Kad; Parekh, Anant; Karmakar, Ananya; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-05-01

The present study examines changes in the low-level summer monsoon circulation over the Arabian Sea and their impact on the ocean dynamics using reanalysis data. The study confirms intensification and northward migration of low-level jet during 1979 to 2015. Further during the study period, an increase in the Arabian Sea upper ocean heat content is found in spite of a decreasing trend in the net surface heat flux, indicating the possible role of ocean dynamics in the upper ocean warming. Increase in the anti-cyclonic wind stress curl associated with the change in the monsoon circulation induces downwelling over the central Arabian Sea, favoring upper ocean warming. The decreasing trend of southward Ekman transport, a mechanism transporting heat from the land-locked north Indian Ocean to southern latitudes, also supports increasing trend of the upper ocean heat content. To reinstate and quantify the role of changing monsoon circulation in increasing the heat content over the Arabian Sea, sensitivity experiment is carried out using ocean general circulation model. In this experiment, the model is forced by inter-annual momentum forcing while rest of the forcing is climatological. Experiment reveals that the changing monsoon circulation increases the upper ocean heat content, effectively by enhancing downwelling processes and reducing southward heat transport, which strongly endorses our hypothesis that changing ocean dynamics associated with low-level monsoon circulation is causing the increasing trend in the heat content of the Arabian Sea.

Circulating miRNAs in Pediatric Pulmonary Hypertension Show Promise as Biomarkers of Vascular Function

PubMed Central

Sucharov, Carmen C.; Truong, Uyen; Dunning, Jamie; Ivy, Dunbar; Miyamoto, Shelley; Shandas, Robin

2017-01-01

Background/Objectives The objective of this study was to evaluate the utility of circulating miRNAs as biomarkers of vascular function in pediatric pulmonary hypertension. Method Fourteen pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension patients underwent simultaneous right heart catheterization (RHC) and blood biochemical analysis. Univariate and stepwise multivariate linear regression was used to identify and correlate measures of reactive and resistive afterload with circulating miRNA levels. Furthermore, circulating miRNA candidates that classified patients according to a 20% decrease in resistive afterload in response to oxygen (O2) or inhaled nitric oxide (iNO) were identified using receiver-operating curves. Results Thirty-two circulating miRNAs correlated with the pulmonary vascular resistance index (PVRi), pulmonary arterial distensibility, and PVRi decrease in response to O2 and/or iNO. Multivariate models, combining the predictive capability of multiple promising miRNA candidates, revealed a good correlation with resistive (r = 0.97, P2−tailed < 0.0001) and reactive (r = 0.86, P2−tailed < 0.005) afterloads. Bland-Altman plots showed that 95% of the differences between multivariate models and RHC would fall within 0.13 (mmHg−min/L)m2 and 0.0085/mmHg for resistive and reactive afterloads, respectively. Circulating miR-663 proved to be a good classifier for vascular responsiveness to acute O2 and iNO challenges. Conclusion This study suggests that circulating miRNAs may be biomarkers to phenotype vascular function in pediatric PAH. PMID:28819545

Event-driven management algorithm of an Engineering documents circulation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzenkov, V.; Zebzeev, A.; Gromakov, E.

2015-04-01

Development methodology of an engineering documents circulation system in the design company is reviewed. Discrete event-driven automatic models using description algorithms of project management is offered. Petri net use for dynamic design of projects is offered.

Land surface hydrology parameterization for atmospheric general circulation models including subgrid scale spatial variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entekhabi, D.; Eagleson, P. S.

1989-01-01

Parameterizations are developed for the representation of subgrid hydrologic processes in atmospheric general circulation models. Reasonable a priori probability density functions of the spatial variability of soil moisture and of precipitation are introduced. These are used in conjunction with the deterministic equations describing basic soil moisture physics to derive expressions for the hydrologic processes that include subgrid scale variation in parameters. The major model sensitivities to soil type and to climatic forcing are explored.

Developing Novel Therapeutic Approaches in Small Cell Lung Carcinoma Using Genetically Engineered Mouse Models and Human Circulating Tumor Cells

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

xenograft models . 12-36 Dr. Engelman Subtask 3: Analyze CTCs for P-4EBP1, P-S6, BIM , Bcl-2, Bcl-xL, and Mcl-1 using ISH and IHC We propose...Using Genetically Engineered Mouse Models and Human Circulating Tumor Cells PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Jeffrey Engelman MD PhD CONTRACTING...reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions

Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Chadwick, Robin; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Dong, Changming; Huang, Gang; Foltz, Gregory R.; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2018-05-01

This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

A Thermodynamically General Theory for Convective Circulations and Vortices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renno, N. O.

2007-12-01

Convective circulations and vortices are common features of atmospheres that absorb low-entropy-energy at higher temperatures than they reject high-entropy-energy to space. These circulations range from small to planetary-scale and play an important role in the vertical transport of heat, momentum, and tracer species. Thus, the development of theoretical models for convective phenomena is important to our understanding of many basic features of planetary atmospheres. A thermodynamically general theory for convective circulations and vortices is proposed. The theory includes irreversible processes and quantifies the pressure drop between the environment and any point in a convective updraft. The article's main result is that the proposed theory provides an expression for the pressure drop along streamlines or streamtubes that is a generalization of Bernoulli's equation to convective circulations. We speculate that the proposed theory not only explains the intensity, but also shed light on other basic features of convective circulations and vortices.

The influence of an atmospheric Two-Way coupled model system on the predictability of extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Mareike; Thürkow, Markus; Weiher, Stefan; Kirchner, Ingo; Ulbrich, Uwe; Will, Andreas

2016-04-01

A general bias of global atmosphere ocean models, and also of the MPI-ESM, is an under-representation of the high latitude cyclone activity and an overestimation of the mid latitude cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, thus representing the extra-tropical storm track too zonal. We will show, that this effect can be antagonized by applying an atmospheric Two-Way Coupling (TWC). In this study we present a newly developed Two-Way Coupled model system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, and show that it is able to capture the mean storm track location more accurate. It also influences the sub-decadal deterministic predictability of extra-tropical cyclones and shows significantly enhanced skill compared to the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM standalone system. This study evaluates a set of hindcast experiments performed with said Two-Way Coupled model system. The regional model COSMO CLM is Two-Way Coupled to the atmosphere of the global Max-Plack-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and therefore integrates and exchanges the state of the atmosphere every 10 minutes (MPI-TWC-ESM). In the coupled source region (North Atlantic), mesoscale processes which are relevant for the formation and early-stage development of cyclones are expected to be better represented, and therefore influence the large scale dynamics of the target region (Europe). The database covers 102 "uncoupled" years and 102 Two-Way Coupled years of the recent climate (1960-2010). Results are validated against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Besides the climatological point of view, the design of this single model ensemble allows for an analysis of the predictability of the first and second leadyears of the hindcasts. As a first step to understand the improved predictability of cyclones, we will show a detailed analysis of climatologies for specific cyclone categories, sorted by season and region. Especially for cyclones affecting Europe, the TWC is capable to counteract the AOGCM's biases in the North Atlantic. Also, cyclones which are generated in the northern North Atlantic and the Labrador Sea are to an extraordinary extent underestimated in the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM - for the latter region the TWC can balance this shortcoming. In the Northern Hemisphere annual mean statistics the TWC does not change the distribution of the strength of cyclones, but it changes the distribution of the lifetime of cyclones.

Assessment of circulation and inter-basin transport in the Salish Sea including Johnstone Strait and Discovery Islands pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Xu, Wenwei

The Salish Sea consisting of Puget Sound and Georgia Basin in U.S and Canadian waters has been the subject of several independent data collection and modeling studies. However, these interconnected basins and their hydrodynamic interactions have not received attention as a contiguous unit. The Strait of Juan de Fuca is the primary pathway through which Pacific Ocean water enters the Salish Sea but the role played by Johnstone Strait and the complex channels northeast of Vancouver Island, connecting the Salish Sea and the Pacific Ocean, on overall Salish Sea circulation has not been characterized. In this paper we present amore » modeling-based assessment of the two-layer circulation and transport through the multiple interconnected sub-basins within the Salish Sea including the effect of exchange via Johnstone Strait and Discovery Islands. The Salish Sea Model previously developed using the finite volume community ocean model (FVCOM) was expanded over the continental shelf for this assessment encircling Vancouver Island, including Discovery Islands, Johnstone Strait, Broughton Archipelago and the associated waterways. A computational technique was developed to allow summation of volume fluxes across arbitrary transects through unstructured finite volume cells. Tidally averaged volume fluxes were computed at multiple transects. The results were used to validate the classic model of Circulation in Embracing Sills for Puget Sound and to provide quantitative estimates of the lateral distribution of tidally averaged transport through the system. Sensitivity tests with and without exchanges through Johnstone Strait demonstrate that it is a pathway for Georgia Basin runoff and Fraser River water to exit the Salish Sea and for Pacific Ocean inflow. However the relative impact of this exchange on circulation and flushing in Puget Sound Basin is small.« less

Evaluating wave-current interaction in an urban estuary and flooding implications for coastal communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cifuentes-Lorenzen, A.; O'Donnell, J.; Howard-Strobel, M. M.; Fake, T.; McCardell, G.

2016-12-01

Accurate hydrodynamic-wave coupled coastal circulation models aid the prediction of storm impacts, particularly in areas where data is absent, and can inform mitigation options. They are essential everywhere to account for the effects of climate change. Here, the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) was used to estimate the residual circulation inside a small urban estuary, Long Island Sound, during three severe weather events of different magnitude (i.e. 1/5, 1/25 and 1/50 year events). The effect of including wave coupling using a log-layer bottom boundary and the bottom wave-current coupling, following the approach of Madsen (1994) on the simulated residual circulation was assessed. Significant differences in the solutions were constrained to the near surface (s>-0.3) region. No significant difference in the depth-averaged residual circulation was detected. When the Madsen (1994) bottom boundary layer model for wave-current interaction was employed, differences in residual circulation resulted. The bottom wave-current interaction also plays an important role in the wave dynamics. Significant wave heights along the northern Connecticut shoreline were enhanced by up to 15% when the bottom wave-current interaction was included in the simulations. The wave-induced bottom drag enhancement has a substantial effect on tides in the Sound, possibly because it is nearly resonant at semidiurnal frequencies. This wave-current interaction current leads to severe tidal dampening ( 40% amplitude reduction) at the Western end of the estuary in the modeled sea surface displacement. The potential magnitude of these effects means that wave current interaction should be included and carefully evaluated in models of estuaries that are useful.

An Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) investigation of the Red Sea circulation, 1. Exchange between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, Sarantis S.; Johns, William E.

2002-11-01

The mechanisms involved in the seasonal exchange between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean are studied using an Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM), namely the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The model reproduces the basic characteristics of the seasonal circulation observed in the area of the strait of Bab el Mandeb. There is good agreement between model results and available observations on the strength of the exchange and the characteristics of the water masses involved, as well as the seasonal flow pattern. During winter, this flow consists of a typical inverse estuarine circulation, while during summer, the surface flow reverses, there is an intermediate inflow of relatively cold and fresh water, and the hypersaline outflow at the bottom of the strait is significantly reduced. Additional experiments with different atmospheric forcing (seasonal winds, seasonal thermohaline air-sea fluxes, or combinations) were performed in order to assess the role of the atmospheric forcing fields in the exchange flow at Bab el Mandeb. The results of both the wind- and thermohaline-driven experiments exhibit a strong seasonality at the area of the strait, which is in phase with the observations. However, it is the combination of both the seasonal pattern of the wind stress and the seasonal thermohaline forcing that can reproduce the observed seasonal variability at the strait. The importance of the seasonal cycle of the thermohaline forcing on the exchange flow pattern is also emphasized by these results. In the experiment where the thermohaline forcing is represented by its annual mean, the strength of the exchange is reduced almost by half.

A Computational Model of the Fetal Circulation to Quantify Blood Redistribution in Intrauterine Growth Restriction

PubMed Central

Garcia-Canadilla, Patricia; Rudenick, Paula A.; Crispi, Fatima; Cruz-Lemini, Monica; Palau, Georgina; Camara, Oscar; Gratacos, Eduard; Bijens, Bart H.

2014-01-01

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) due to placental insufficiency is associated with blood flow redistribution in order to maintain delivery of oxygenated blood to the brain. Given that, in the fetus the aortic isthmus (AoI) is a key arterial connection between the cerebral and placental circulations, quantifying AoI blood flow has been proposed to assess this brain sparing effect in clinical practice. While numerous clinical studies have studied this parameter, fundamental understanding of its determinant factors and its quantitative relation with other aspects of haemodynamic remodeling has been limited. Computational models of the cardiovascular circulation have been proposed for exactly this purpose since they allow both for studying the contributions from isolated parameters as well as estimating properties that cannot be directly assessed from clinical measurements. Therefore, a computational model of the fetal circulation was developed, including the key elements related to fetal blood redistribution and using measured cardiac outflow profiles to allow personalization. The model was first calibrated using patient-specific Doppler data from a healthy fetus. Next, in order to understand the contributions of the main parameters determining blood redistribution, AoI and middle cerebral artery (MCA) flow changes were studied by variation of cerebral and peripheral-placental resistances. Finally, to study how this affects an individual fetus, the model was fitted to three IUGR cases with different degrees of severity. In conclusion, the proposed computational model provides a good approximation to assess blood flow changes in the fetal circulation. The results support that while MCA flow is mainly determined by a fall in brain resistance, the AoI is influenced by a balance between increased peripheral-placental and decreased cerebral resistances. Personalizing the model allows for quantifying the balance between cerebral and peripheral-placental remodeling, thus providing potentially novel information to aid clinical follow up. PMID:24921933

Tropical Cyclone Footprint in the Ocean Mixed Layer Observed by Argo in the Northwest Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-25

668. Hu, A., and G. A. Meehl (2009), Effect of the Atlantic hurricanes on the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and heat transport, Geo...atmospheric circulation [Hart et al., 2007]. Several studies, based on observations and modeling, suggest that TC-induced energy input and mixing may play...an important role in climate variability through regulating the oceanic general circulation and its variability [e.g., Emanuel, 2001; Sriver and Huber

Dynamical Evaluation of Ocean Models Using the Gulf Stream as an Example

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-10

Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) wind stress climatology and the northward upper ocean flow (14 Sv) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ...30 35 55N 65N Fig. 21.14 Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) streamfunction from the same four simulations as Fig. 21.11. An AMOC...typically develops a northern or southern bias. A shallow bias in the southward abyssal flow of the Atlan- tic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC

Themes on circulation in the third world.

PubMed

Chapman, M; Prothero, R M

1983-01-01

"This article focuses upon circulation, or reciprocal flows of people, with specific reference to Third World societies." Aspects considered include attempts to standardize terminology and to formulate typologies of population movement; the development of explanatory models of circulation and modernization, social networks, family welfare, and capitalism; and "the transfer of methods and concepts to societies and populations different from those from which they initially evolved and in which they were first tested." excerpt

Wind-induced circulation in a large tropical lagoon: Chetumal Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palacios, E.; Carrillo, L.

2013-05-01

Chetumal Bay is a large tropical lagoon located at the Mesoamerican Reef System. Windinduced circulation in this basin was investigated by using direct measurements of current, sea level, and 2d barotropic numerical model. Acoustic Doppler Profiler (ADP) transects covering the north of Chetumal Bay during two campaigns September 2006 and March 2007 were used. The 2d barotropic numerical model was ROMs based and wind forced. Wind information was obtained from a meteorological station located at ECOSUR Chetumal. Sea level data was collected from a pressure sensor deployed in the lagoon. A seasonal pattern of circulation was observed. From observations, during September 2006, a northward flow was shown in most part of the bay and a southward flow in the eastern coast was observed with velocities ranged from 6 cm s-1 to 36 cm s-1. In March 2007, the current pattern was more complex; divergences and converges were identified. The dominant circulation was northward in eastern portion, and southward in the central and western zone. The average current speed was 6 cm s-1 with maximum values of 26 -34 cm s-1. During September 2006 predominant wind was easternsoutheastern and during March 2007, northerly wind events were recorded. Sea level amplitude responded quickly to changes in the magnitude and direction of the wind. Results of sea level and circulation from the 2d barotropic numerical model agreed with observations at first approximation.

The Effect of Surface Ice and Topography on the Atmospheric Circulation and Distribution of Nitrogen Ice on Pluto

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafkin, Scot C. R.; Soto, Alejandro; Michaels, Timothy I.

2016-10-01

A newly developed general circulation model (GCM) for Pluto is used to investigate the impact of a heterogeneous distribution of nitrogen surface ice and large scale topography on Pluto's atmospheric circulation. The GCM is based on the GFDL Flexible Modeling System (FSM). Physics include a gray model radiative-conductive scheme, subsurface conduction, and a nitrogen volatile cycle. The radiative-conductive model takes into account the 2.3, 3.3 and 7.8 μm bands of CH4 and CO, including non-local thermodynamic equilibrium effects. including non-local thermodynamic equilibrium effects. The nitrogen volatile cycle is based on a vapor pressure equilibrium assumption between the atmosphere and surface. Prior to the arrival of the New Horizons spacecraft, the expectation was that the volatile ice distribution on the surface of Pluto would be strongly controlled by the latitudinal temperature gradient. If this were the case, then Pluto would have broad latitudinal bands of both ice covered surface and ice free surface, as dictated by the season. Further, the circulation, and the thus the transport of volatiles, was thought to be driven almost exclusively by sublimation and deposition flows associated with the volatile cycle. In contrast to expectations, images from New Horizon showed an extremely complex, heterogeneous distribution of surface ices draped over substantial and variable topography. To produce such an ice distribution, the atmospheric circulation and volatile transport must be more complex than previously envisioned. Simulations where topography, surface ice distributions, and volatile cycle physics are added individually and in various combinations are used to individually quantify the importance of the general circulation, topography, surface ice distributions, and condensation flows. It is shown that even regional patches of ice or large craters can have global impacts on the atmospheric circulation, the volatile cycle, and hence, the distribution of surface ices. The work demonstrates that explaining Pluto's volatile cycle and the expression of that cycle in the surface ice distributions requires consideration of atmospheric processes beyond simple vapor pressure equilibrium arguments.

A January angular momentum balance in the OSU two-level atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, J.-W.; Grady, W.

1982-01-01

The present investigation is concerned with an analysis of the atmospheric angular momentum balance, based on the simulation data of the Oregon State University two-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). An attempt is also made to gain an understanding of the involved processes. Preliminary results on the angular momentum and mass balance in the AGCM are shown. The basic equations are examined, and questions of turbulent momentum transfer are investigated. The methods of analysis are discussed, taking into account time-averaged balance equations, time and longitude-averaged balance equations, mean meridional circulation, the mean meridional balance of relative angular momentum, and standing and transient components of motion.

Adrenaline, terlipressin, and corticoids versus adrenaline in the treatment of experimental pediatric asphyxial cardiac arrest.

PubMed

González, Rafael; Urbano, Javier; Botrán, Marta; López, Jorge; Solana, Maria J; García, Ana; Fernández, Sarah; López-Herce, Jesús

2014-07-01

To analyze if treatment with adrenaline (epinephrine) plus terlipressin plus corticoids achieves higher return of spontaneous circulation than adrenaline in an experimental infant animal model of asphyxial cardiac arrest. Prospective randomized animal study. Experimental department in a University Hospital. Forty-nine piglets were studied. Cardiac arrest was induced by at least 10 minutes of removal of mechanical ventilation and was followed by manual external chest compressions and mechanical ventilation. After 3 minutes of resuscitation, piglets that did not achieve return of spontaneous circulation were randomized to two groups: adrenaline 0.02 mg kg every 3 minutes (20 animals) and adrenaline 0.02 mg kg every 3 minutes plus terlipressin 20 μg kg every 6 minutes plus hydrocortisone 30 mg kg one dose (22 animals). Resuscitation was discontinued when return of spontaneous circulation was achieved or after 24 minutes. Return of spontaneous circulation was achieved in 14 piglets (28.5%), 14.2% with only cardiac massage and ventilation. Return of spontaneous circulation was achieved in 25% of piglets treated with adrenaline and in 9.1% of those treated with adrenaline plus terlipressin plus hydrocortisone (p = 0.167). Return of spontaneous circulation was achieved in 45.4% of animals with pulseless electric activity, 20% with asystole, and 0% with ventricular fibrillation (p = 0.037). Shorter duration of cardiac arrest, higher mean blood pressure and EtCO2 and lower PaCO2 before resuscitation, and higher mean blood pressure during resuscitation were associated with higher return of spontaneous circulation. Treatment with adrenaline plus terlipressin plus corticoids does not achieve higher return of spontaneous circulation than that with adrenaline in an infant animal model of asphyxial cardiac arrest.

Simulation of Asian monsoon seasonal variations with climate model R42L9/LASG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zaizhi; Wu, Guoxiong; Wu, Tongwen; Yu, Rucong

2004-12-01

The seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon were explored by applying the atmospheric general circulation model R42L9 that was developed recently at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP/CAS). The 20-yr (1979 1998) simulation was done using the prescribed 20-yr monthly SST and sea-ice data as required by Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) II in the model. The monthly precipitation and monsoon circulations were analyzed and compared with the observations to validate the model’s performance in simulating the climatological mean and seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon. The results show that the model can capture the main features of the spatial distribution and the temporal evolution of precipitation in the Indian and East Asian monsoon areas. The model also reproduced the basic patterns of monsoon circulation. However, some biases exist in this model. The simulation of the heating over the Tibetan Plateau in summer was too strong. The overestimated heating caused a stronger East Asian monsoon and a weaker Indian monsoon than the observations. In the circulation fields, the South Asia high was stronger and located over the Tibetan Plateau. The western Pacific subtropical high was extended westward, which is in accordance with the observational results when the heating over the Tibetan Plateau is stronger. Consequently, the simulated rainfall around this area and in northwest China was heavier than in observations, but in the Indian monsoon area and west Pacific the rainfall was somewhat deficient.

Effects of a Model Inducer, Phenobarbital, on Thyroid Hormone Glucuronidation in Rat Hepatocytes

EPA Science Inventory

In vivo, hepatic enzyme inducers such as phenobarbital (PB) decrease circulating thyroid hormone (TH) concentrations. This decrease in circulating TH occurs in part through extrathyroidal mechanisms. Specifically, through the induction of hepatic xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes...

Evaluation of wind induced currents modeling along the Southern Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohluly, Asghar; Esfahani, Fariba Sadat; Montazeri Namin, Masoud; Chegini, Fatemeh

2018-02-01

To improve our understanding of the Caspian Sea hydrodynamics, its circulation is simulated with special focus on wind-driven currents of its southern basin. The hydrodynamic models are forced with a newly developed fine resolution wind field to increase the accuracy of current modeling. A 2D shallow water equation model and a 3D baroclinic model are applied separately to examine the performance of each model for specific applications in the Caspian Sea. The model results are validated against recent field measurements including AWAC and temperature observations in the southern continental shelf region. Results show that the 2D model is able to well predict the depth-averaged current speed in storm conditions in narrow area of southern coasts. This finding suggests physical oceanographers apply 2D modeling as a more affordable method for extreme current speed analysis at the continental shelf region. On the other hand the 3D model demonstrates a better performance in reproducing monthly mean circulation and hence is preferable for surface circulation of Caspian Sea. Monthly sea surface circulation fields of the southern basin reveal a dipole cyclonic-anticyclonic pattern, a dominant eastward current along the southern coasts which intensifies from May to November and a dominant southward current along the eastern coasts in all months except February when the flow is northward. Monthly mean wind fields exhibit two main patterns including a north-south pattern occurring at warm months and collision of two wind fronts especially in the cold months. This collision occurs on a narrow region at the southern continental shelf regions. Due to wind field complexities, it leads to a major source of uncertainty in predicting the wind-driven currents. However, this source of uncertainty is significantly alleviated by applying a fine resolution wind field.

Numerical Study Comparing RANS and LES Approaches on a Circulation Control Airfoil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rumsey, Christopher L.; Nishino, Takafumi

2011-01-01

A numerical study over a nominally two-dimensional circulation control airfoil is performed using a large-eddy simulation code and two Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes codes. Different Coanda jet blowing conditions are investigated. In addition to investigating the influence of grid density, a comparison is made between incompressible and compressible flow solvers. The incompressible equations are found to yield negligible differences from the compressible equations up to at least a jet exit Mach number of 0.64. The effects of different turbulence models are also studied. Models that do not account for streamline curvature effects tend to predict jet separation from the Coanda surface too late, and can produce non-physical solutions at high blowing rates. Three different turbulence models that account for streamline curvature are compared with each other and with large eddy simulation solutions. All three models are found to predict the Coanda jet separation location reasonably well, but one of the models predicts specific flow field details near the Coanda surface prior to separation much better than the other two. All Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computations produce higher circulation than large eddy simulation computations, with different stagnation point location and greater flow acceleration around the nose onto the upper surface. The precise reasons for the higher circulation are not clear, although it is not solely a function of predicting the jet separation location correctly.

Theoretical analysis of multiphase flow during oil-well drilling by a conservative model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas-Lopez, Ruben

2005-11-01

In order to decrease cost and improve drilling operations is necessary a better understood of the flow mechanisms. Therefore, it was carried out a multiphase conservative model that includes three mass equations and a momentum equation. Also, the measured geothermal gradient is utilized by state equations for estimating physical properties of the phases flowing. The mathematical model is solved by numerical conservative schemes. It is used to analyze the interaction among solid-liquid-gas phases. The circulating system consists as follow, the circulating fluid is pumped downward into the drilling pipe until the bottom of the open hole then it flows through the drill bit, and at this point formation cuttings are incorporated to the circulating fluid and carried upward to the surface. The mixture returns up to the surface by an annular flow area. The real operational conditions are fed to conservative model and the results are matched up to field measurements in several oil wells. Mainly, flow rates, drilling rate, well and tool geometries are data to estimate the profiles of pressure, mixture density, equivalent circulating density, gas fraction and solid carrying capacity. Even though the problem is very complex, the model describes, properly, the hydrodynamics of drilling techniques applied at oil fields. *Authors want to thank to Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo and Petroleos Mexicanos for supporting this research.

Enhancements to the FAST-MAC Circulation Control Model and Recent High-Reynolds Number Testing in the National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milholen, William E., II; Jones, Gregory S.; Chan, David T.; Goodliff, Scott L.; Anders, Scott G.; Melton, Latunia P.; Carter, Melissa B.; Allan, Brian G.; Capone, Francis J.

2013-01-01

A second wind tunnel test of the FAST-MAC circulation control model was recently completed in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The model was equipped with four onboard flow control valves allowing independent control of the circulation control plenums, which were directed over a 15% chord simple-hinged flap. The model was configured for low-speed high-lift testing with flap deflections of 30 and 60 degrees, along with the transonic cruise configuration with zero degree flap deflection. Testing was again conducted over a wide range of Mach numbers up to 0.88, and Reynolds numbers up to 30 million based on the mean chord. The first wind tunnel test had poor transonic force and moment data repeatability at mild cryogenic conditions due to inadequate thermal conditioning of the balance. The second test demonstrated that an improvement to the balance heating system significantly improved the transonic data repeatability, but also indicated further improvements are still needed. The low-speed highlift performance of the model was improved by testing various blowing slot heights, and the circulation control was again demonstrated to be effective in re-attaching the flow over the wing at off-design transonic conditions. A new tailored spanwise blowing technique was also demonstrated to be effective at transonic conditions with the benefit of reduced mass flow requirements.

Modelling the ocean circulation on the West Greenland shelf with special emphasis on northern shrimp recruitment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hvid Ribergaard, Mads; Anker Pedersen, Søren; Ådlandsvik, Bjørn; Kliem, Nicolai

2004-08-01

The ocean circulation on the West Greenland shelf are modelled using a 3D finite element circulation model forced by wind data from the Danish Meteorological Institute-High-Resolution Limited Area Model operational atmospheric model for the Greenland area and tides at the open boundary. Residual anticyclonic eddies are generated around the shelf banks north of 64∘N and areas of permanent upwelling are located west of the shelf banks. The potential distances of shrimp larvae transport from larval release to settling at the bottom were studied, using a particle-tracking model. Particles released (hatched shrimp larvae) south of 62∘N had a probability of about 2% of being lost to the Canadian Shelf, whereas for particles released north of 64∘N almost none were lost from the West Greenland Shelf. The particles tended to have long retention times at the shelf banks caused by the residual anticyclonic eddies. The retention times increased slightly for particles tracked at depths from 80 to 30 m with minor implications for potential transport distances of larval shrimp and plankton.

Decision Support Tool Evaluation Report for General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment(GNOME) Version 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie; Zanoni, Vicki; Blonski, Slawomir; D'Sa, Eurico; Estep, Lee; Holland, Donald; Moore, Roxzana F.; Pagnutti, Mary; Terrie, Gregory

2004-01-01

NASA's Earth Science Applications Directorate evaluated the potential of NASA remote sensing data and modeling products to enhance the General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME) decision support tool. NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) Response Division is interested in enhancing GNOME with near-realtime (NRT) NASA remote sensing products on oceanic winds and ocean circulation. The NASA SeaWinds sea surface wind and Jason-1 sea surface height NRT products have potential, as do sea surface temperature and reflectance products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and sea surface reflectance products from Landsat and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer. HAZMAT is also interested in the Advanced Circulation model and the Ocean General Circulation Model. Certain issues must be considered, including lack of data continuity, marginal data redundancy, and data formatting problems. Spatial resolution is an issue for near-shore GNOME applications. Additional work will be needed to incorporate NASA inputs into GNOME, including verification and validation of data products, algorithms, models, and NRT data.

Reducing uncertainty in the climatic interpretations of speleothem δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jex, C. N.; Phipps, S. J.; Baker, A.; Bradley, C.

2013-05-01

We explore two principal areas of uncertainty associated with paleoclimate reconstructions from speleothem δ18O (δ18Ospel): potential non-stationarity in relationships between local climate and larger-scale atmospheric circulation, and routing of water through the karst aquifer. Using a δ18Ospel record from Turkey, the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model and the KarstFOR karst hydrology model, we confirm the stationarity of relationships between cool season precipitation and regional circulation dynamics associated with the North Sea-Caspian pattern since 1 ka. Stalagmite δ18O is predicted for the last 500 years, using precipitation and temperature output from the CSIRO Mk3L model and synthetic δ18O of precipitation as inputs for the KarstFOR model. Interannual variability in the δ18Ospel record is captured by KarstFOR, but we cannot reproduce the isotopically lighter conditions of the sixteenth to seventeenth centuries. We argue that forward models of paleoclimate proxies (such as KarstFOR) embedded within isotope-enabled general circulation models are now required.

Lens intracellular hydrostatic pressure is generated by the circulation of sodium and modulated by gap junction coupling

PubMed Central

Gao, Junyuan; Sun, Xiurong; Moore, Leon C.; White, Thomas W.; Brink, Peter R.

2011-01-01

We recently modeled fluid flow through gap junction channels coupling the pigmented and nonpigmented layers of the ciliary body. The model suggested the channels could transport the secretion of aqueous humor, but flow would be driven by hydrostatic pressure rather than osmosis. The pressure required to drive fluid through a single layer of gap junctions might be just a few mmHg and difficult to measure. In the lens, however, there is a circulation of Na+ that may be coupled to intracellular fluid flow. Based on this hypothesis, the fluid would cross hundreds of layers of gap junctions, and this might require a large hydrostatic gradient. Therefore, we measured hydrostatic pressure as a function of distance from the center of the lens using an intracellular microelectrode-based pressure-sensing system. In wild-type mouse lenses, intracellular pressure varied from ∼330 mmHg at the center to zero at the surface. We have several knockout/knock-in mouse models with differing levels of expression of gap junction channels coupling lens fiber cells. Intracellular hydrostatic pressure in lenses from these mouse models varied inversely with the number of channels. When the lens’ circulation of Na+ was either blocked or reduced, intracellular hydrostatic pressure in central fiber cells was either eliminated or reduced proportionally. These data are consistent with our hypotheses: fluid circulates through the lens; the intracellular leg of fluid circulation is through gap junction channels and is driven by hydrostatic pressure; and the fluid flow is generated by membrane transport of sodium. PMID:21624945

Mediterranean summer climate and the importance of Middle-East Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Isla; Seager, Richard; Shaw, Tiffany; Ting, Mingfang

2015-04-01

In summer, the atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean is characterized by localized intense subsidence and low level northerlies over the central- to eastern portion of the basin. Here, simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 are used to investigate the influence of the elevated terrain of North Africa and the Middle East on this summertime circulation. This builds on previous work that recognized a role for North African topography in localizing the Mediterranean subsidence. By flattening the two regions of elevated terrain in the model it is demonstrated that, while they both conspire to produce about 30% of the summertime subsidence, contrary to previous work, the mountains of the Middle-East dominate in this topographic contribution by far. This topography, consisting primarily of the Zagros Mountain range, alters the circulation throughout the depth of the troposphere over the Mediterranean, and further East. The model results suggest that about 20% of the Mediterranean summertime moisture deficit can be attributed to this mountain induced circulation. This topography, therefore, plays an important role in the climate of the Mediterranean and the large scale circulation over the rest of Eurasia during the summer. Further stationary wave modelling reveals that the mountain influence is produced via mechanical forcing of the flow. The greatest influence of the topography occurs when the low level incident flow is easterly, as happens during the summer, primarily due to the presence of condensational heating over Asia. During other seasons, when the low level incident flow is westerly, the influence of Middle-East topography on the Mediterranean is negligible.

High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

Spectrum Analysis of Inertial and Subinertial Motions Based on Analyzed Winds and Wind-Driven Currents from a Primitive Equation General Ocean Circulation Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

1Muter.Te Motions Based on Ana lyzed Winds and wind-driven December 1982 Currents from. a Primitive Squat ion General a.OW -love"*..* Oean Circulation...mew se"$ (comeS.... do oISN..u am ae~ 00do OWaor NUN Fourier and Rotary Spc , Analysis Modeled Inertial and Subinrtial Motion 4 Primitive Equation

Global circulation as the main source of cloud activity on Titan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, S.; Le, Mouelic S.; Rannou, P.; Tobie, G.; Baines, K.H.; Barnes, J.W.; Griffith, C.A.; Hirtzig, M.; Pitman, K.M.; Sotin, Christophe; Brown, R.H.; Buratti, B.J.; Clark, R.N.; Nicholson, P.D.

2009-01-01

Clouds on Titan result from the condensation of methane and ethane and, as on other planets, are primarily structured by circulation of the atmosphere. At present, cloud activity mainly occurs in the southern (summer) hemisphere, arising near the pole and at mid-latitudes from cumulus updrafts triggered by surface heating and/or local methane sources, and at the north (winter) pole, resulting from the subsidence and condensation of ethane-rich air into the colder troposphere. General circulation models predict that this distribution should change with the seasons on a 15-year timescale, and that clouds should develop under certain circumstances at temperate latitudes (40??) in the winter hemisphere. The models, however, have hitherto been poorly constrained and their long-term predictions have not yet been observationally verified. Here we report that the global spatial cloud coverage on Titan is in general agreement with the models, confirming that cloud activity is mainly controlled by the global circulation. The non-detection of clouds at latitude 40??N and the persistence of the southern clouds while the southern summer is ending are, however, both contrary to predictions. This suggests that Titans equator-to-pole thermal contrast is overestimated in the models and that its atmosphere responds to the seasonal forcing with a greater inertia than expected. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

High resolution simulations on the North Aegean Sea seasonal circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kourafalou, V. H.; Barbopoulos, K.

2003-01-01

The seasonal characteristics of the circulation in the North Aegean Sea are examined with the aid of a climatological type simulation (three-year run with perpetual year forcing) on a fine resolution grid (2.5 km by 2.5 km). The model is based on the Princeton Ocean Model with a parameterisation of plume dynamics that is employed for the input of waters with hydrographic properties that are different than the properties of basin waters, as the Black Sea Water (BSW) outflow through the Dardanelles Strait and riverine sources. The model is nested with a sequence of coarser regional and basin-wide models that provide for the long-term interaction between the study area and the Eastern Mediterranean at large. The results are employed to discuss the response of the North Aegean to the important circulation forcing mechanisms in the region, namely wind stress, heat and salt fluxes, buoyancy due to rivers and the BSW outflow (which is low in salinity and occasionally low in temperature) and the interaction with the Southern Aegean. The high resolution allows for the detailed representation of the complicated topography that presides in the region. This helps produce a rich eddy field and it allows for variability in the pathways of BSW that has implications in the basin hydrography and circulation.

Interannual drought index variations in Central Europe related to large-scale atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus

2014-05-01

This contribution investigates the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and interannual variations of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in central Europe. To this end occurrence frequencies of circulation types (CT) derived from a variety of circulation type classifications (CTC) applied to daily sea level pressure (SLP) data and mean circulation indices of vorticity (V), zonality (Z) and meridionality (M) have been utilized as predictors within multiple regression models (MRM) for the estimation of gridded 3-month SPI values over central Europe for the period 1950 to 2010. CTC based MRMs used in the analyses comprise variants concerning the basic method for CT classification, the number of CTs, the size and location of the spatial domain used for CTCs and the exclusive use of CT frequencies or the combined use of CT frequencies and mean circulation indices as predictors. Adequate MRM predictor combinations have been identified by applying stepwise multiple regression analyses within a resampling framework. The performance (robustness) of the resulting MRMs has been quantified based on a leave-one out cross-validation procedure applying several skill scores. Furthermore the relative importance of individual predictors has been estimated for each MRM. From these analyses it can be stated that i.) the consideration of vorticity characteristics within CTCs, ii.) a relatively small size of the spatial domain to which CTCs are applied and iii.) the inclusion of mean circulation indices appear to improve model skill. However model skill exhibits distinct variations between seasons and regions. Whereas promising skill can be stated for the western and northwestern parts of the central European domain only unsatisfactorily skill is reached in the more continental regions and particularly during summer. Thus it can be concluded that the here presented approaches feature the potential for the downscaling of central European drought index variations from large-scale circulation at least for some regions. Further improvements of CTC based approaches may be expected from the optimization of CTCs for explaining the SPI e.g. via the inclusion of additional variables into the classification procedure.

MEAN-FIELD SOLAR DYNAMO MODELS WITH A STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CONVECTION ZONE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pipin, V. V.; Kosovichev, A. G.

2011-09-01

This paper presents a study of kinematic axisymmetric mean-field dynamo models for the case of meridional circulation with a deep-seated stagnation point and a strong return flow at the bottom of the convection zone. This kind of circulation follows from mean-field models of the angular momentum balance in the solar convection zone. The dynamo models include turbulent sources of the large-scale poloidal magnetic field production due to kinetic helicity and a combined effect due to the Coriolis force and large-scale electric current. In these models the toroidal magnetic field, which is responsible for sunspot production, is concentrated at the bottommore » of the convection zone and is transported to low-latitude regions by a meridional flow. The meridional component of the poloidal field is also concentrated at the bottom of the convection zone, while the radial component is concentrated in near-polar regions. We show that it is possible for this type of meridional circulation to construct kinematic dynamo models that resemble in some aspects the sunspot magnetic activity cycle. However, in the near-equatorial regions the phase relation between the toroidal and poloidal components disagrees with observations. We also show that the period of the magnetic cycle may not always monotonically decrease with the increase of the meridional flow speed. Thus, for further progress it is important to determine the structure of the meridional circulation, which is one of the critical properties, from helioseismology observations.« less

Implications of Warm Rain in Shallow Cumulus and Congestus Clouds for Large-Scale Circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuijens, Louise; Emanuel, Kerry; Masunaga, Hirohiko; L'Ecuyer, Tristan

2017-11-01

Space-borne observations reveal that 20-40% of marine convective clouds below the freezing level produce rain. In this paper we speculate what the prevalence of warm rain might imply for convection and large-scale circulations over tropical oceans. We present results using a two-column radiative-convective model of hydrostatic, nonlinear flow on a non-rotating sphere, with parameterized convection and radiation, and review ongoing efforts in high-resolution modeling and observations of warm rain. The model experiments investigate the response of convection and circulation to sea surface temperature (SST) gradients between the columns and to changes in a parameter that controls the conversion of cloud condensate to rain. Convection over the cold ocean collapses to a shallow mode with tops near 850 hPa, but a congestus mode with tops near 600 hPa can develop at small SST differences when warm rain formation is more efficient. Here, interactive radiation and the response of the circulation are crucial: along with congestus a deeper moist layer develops, which leads to less low-level radiative cooling, a smaller buoyancy gradient between the columns, and therefore a weaker circulation and less subsidence over the cold ocean. The congestus mode is accompanied with more surface precipitation in the subsiding column and less surface precipitation in the deep convecting column. For the shallow mode over colder oceans, circulations also weaken with more efficient warm rain formation, but only marginally. Here, more warm rain reduces convective tops and the boundary layer depth—similar to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) studies—which reduces the integrated buoyancy gradient. Elucidating the impact of warm rain can benefit from large-domain high-resolution simulations and observations. Parameterizations of warm rain may be constrained through collocated cloud and rain profiling from ground, and concurrent changes in convection and rain in subsiding and convecting branches of circulations may be revealed from a collocation of space-borne sensors, including the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and upcoming Aeolus missions.

Trends and variability in the Hadley circulation over the Last Millennium from the proxy record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horlick, K. A.; Noone, D.; Hakim, G. J.; Tardif, R.; Anderson, D. M.; Perkins, W. A.; Erb, M. P.; Steig, E. J.

2017-12-01

The Hadley circulation (HC) is the dominant atmospheric overturning circulation controlling variability in precipitation distribution in the tropics and subtropics, affecting agricultural production and water resource allocation, among other human civilizational dependencies. A lack of pre-instrumental data-model synthesis has been cited as the barrier to diagnostic analyses of the variability in width, position, and intensity of the HC and its response to anthropogenic forcing. We analyze the HC, and its rising limb associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), over the past 1000 years using the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) (Hakim et al. 2016). The LMR systematically blends the dynamical constraints of climate models with a proxy network of coral, tree ring, and ice core records. It allows for a spatiotemporal analysis with robust uncertainty measures. A three dimensional analysis of LMR wind fields shows an centennial-scale circulatory trend over the last 200 years resembling that which might be expected from an ENSO and PDO-like structure. An observed aridification of both the central equatorial Pacific and the southwest United States, a strengthening of the east-west sea surface temperature and sea level pressure gradient in the equatorial Pacific, and a strengthening of the Walker overturning circulation suggest a more "La Niña-like" mean state. This is compared to our statistical description of the centennial-scale mean circulation and variability of the previous millennia. Similarly, precipitation and relative humidity trends suggest expansion and asymmetric meridional movement of the Hadley circulation as a result of asymmetric shifts in mean ITCZ position and intensity. These observations are then compared to free running model simulations, other instrumental reanalysis products, and late-Holocene aerosol, solar, and greenhouse forcings. This LMR reconstruction improves upon previous work by enabling a proxy-consistent, quantitative analysis of Hadley circulation intensity, structure, and variability rather than relying on simpler empirical reconstructions of variables like surface temperature alone.

Stratosphere-resolving CMIP5 models simulate different changes in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rea, Gloria; Riccio, Angelo; Fierli, Federico; Cairo, Francesco; Cagnazzo, Chiara

2018-03-01

This work documents long-term changes in the Southern Hemisphere circulation in the austral spring-summer season in the Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, showing that those changes are larger in magnitude and closer to ERA-Interim and other reanalyses if models include a dynamical representation of the stratosphere. Specifically, models with a high-top and included dynamical and—in some cases—chemical feedbacks within the stratosphere better simulate the lower stratospheric cooling observed over 1979-2001 and strongly driven by ozone depletion, when compared to the other models. This occurs because high-top models can fully capture the stratospheric large scale circulation response to the ozone-induced cooling. Interestingly, this difference is also found at the surface for the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) changes, even though all model categories tend to underestimate SAM trends over those decades. In this analysis, models including a proper dynamical stratosphere are more sensitive to lower stratospheric cooling in their tropospheric circulation response. After a brief discussion of two RCP scenarios, our study confirms that at least for large changes in the extratropical regions, stratospheric changes induced by external forcing have to be properly simulated, as they are important drivers of tropospheric climate variations.

Assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data into a circulation model of the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blayo, E.; Verron, J.; Molines, J. M.

1994-12-01

Assimilation experiments were conducted using the first 12 months of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter measurements in a multilayered quasi-geostrophic model of the North Atlantic between 20°N and 60°N. These experiments demonstrate the feasibility of using T/P data to control a basin-scale circulation model by means of an assimilation procedure. Moreover, they allow us to recreate the four-dimensional behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean during the year October 1992-September 1993 and to improve our knowledge and understanding of such circulation patterns. For this study we used a four-layer quasigeostrophic model of high horizontal resolution (1/6° in latitude and longitude). The assimilation procedure used is an along-track, sequential, nudging technique. The evolution of the model general circulation is described and analyzed from a deterministic and statistical point of view, with special emphasis on the Gulf Stream area. The gross features of the North Atlantic circulation in terms of mean transport and circulation are reproduced, such as the path, penetration and recirculation of the Gulf Stream, and its meandering throughout the eastern basin. The North Atlantic Drift is, however, noticeably underestimated. A northern meander of the north wall of the Gulf Stream above the New England Seamount Chain is present for most of the year, while, just downstream, the southern part of the jet is subject to a 100-km southeastward deflection. The Azores current is shown to remain stable and to shift southward with time from the beginning of December 1992 to the end of April 1993, the amplitude of the shift being about 2°. The computation of the mean latitude of the Gulf Stream as a function of time shows an abrupt shift from a northern position to a southern position in January, and a reverse shift, from a southern position to a northern position, in July. Finally, some issues are addressed concerning the comparison of assimilation experiments using T/P data and Geosat data. The first results show that the T/P simulations are more energetic than the Geosat simulations, especially east of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, for every wavelength from 50 km to 500 km. This property is also verified in the deep ocean. The predicted abyssal circulation is indeed more energetic in the T/P case, which is more in accordance with what we know of the real ocean. Moreover, the good T/P altimeter coverage near the coasts greatly improves the model eddy kinetic energy levels in these areas, especially east of 25°W.

Heat flow in the flanks of the Oceanographer-Hayes segment of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Gal, V.; Lucazeau, F.; Cannat, M.; Battani, A.; Poort, J.; Guichet, X.; Monnin, C.; Fontaine, F. J.; Leroy, S. D.

2016-12-01

It is currently estimated that a third of the oceanic heat loss is due to fluid circulation in the oceanic crust. Besides high and low temperature fluid discharge at ridge axis, off-axis low temperature fluid circulations can affect large volumes of the oceanic crust. Long term investigations of the Eastern Juan de Fuca ridge flank (Hutnak et al.2006) have established a circulation pattern where hydrothermal discharge and recharge occur at basement outcrops and where sediment is mostly impermeable. Here, we present results from the recent Oceanograflu cruise (2013), on the Oceanographer-Hayes segment ridge flanks of the Mid-Atlantic ridge in crust 5 and 12 myrs in age. On both flanks, we obtained 185 temperature gradients and conductivities in-situ, 30 Küllenberg cores (3 to 5 meters long) coupled with temperature gradients in-situ and conductivity measurements onboard. These data are interpreted in terms of heat flow values and are generally lower than the conductive cooling model. Several temperature-depth profiles don't show linear gradients, but rather sigmoid shapes or inverse gradients suggesting superficial circulations through the first meters of sediments. The corresponding heat flow pattern is not similar to the one observed at Juan de Fuca. No systematic links have been observed between basement outcrops and lower or higher heat flow which would point to discharge or recharge sites. Instead, the pattern recalls studies in the North Pond area (Langseth et al.1992), with a clear predominance of low heat flow values over the site. We propose that the North Pond circulation model is applicable to large portions of slow-spreading ridge flanks such as the Atlantic. In this model, seawater cools the uppermost crust below sediments in basins that are typically tens of kms wide, reducing the surface heat flow under cooling model values. Based on subsidence rates, these shallow hydrothermal circulations have a minor impact on the cooling of the diverging plates.

Impacts of wave-induced circulation in the surf zone on wave setup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guérin, Thomas; Bertin, Xavier; Coulombier, Thibault; de Bakker, Anouk

2018-03-01

Wave setup corresponds to the increase in mean water level along the coast associated with the breaking of short-waves and is of key importance for coastal dynamics, as it contributes to storm surges and the generation of undertows. Although overall well explained by the divergence of the momentum flux associated with short waves in the surf zone, several studies reported substantial underestimations along the coastline. This paper investigates the impacts of the wave-induced circulation that takes place in the surf zone on wave setup, based on the analysis of 3D modelling results. A 3D phase-averaged modelling system using a vortex force formalism is applied to hindcast an unpublished field experiment, carried out at a dissipative beach under moderate to very energetic wave conditions (Hm 0 = 6m at breaking and Tp = 22s). When using an adaptive wave breaking parameterisation based on the beach slope, model predictions for water levels, short waves and undertows improved by about 30%, with errors reducing to 0.10 m, 0.10 m and 0.09 m/s, respectively. The analysis of model results suggests a very limited impact of the vertical circulation on wave setup at this dissipative beach. When extending this analysis to idealized simulations for different beach slopes ranging from 0.01 to 0.05, it shows that the contribution of the vertical circulation (horizontal and vertical advection and vertical viscosity terms) becomes more and more relevant as the beach slope increases. In contrast, for a given beach slope, the wave height at the breaking point has a limited impact on the relative contribution of the vertical circulation on the wave setup. For a slope of 0.05, the contribution of the terms associated with the vertical circulation accounts for up to 17% (i.e. a 20% increase) of the total setup at the shoreline, which provides a new explanation for the underestimations reported in previously published studies.

A zonally symmetric model for the monsoon-Hadley circulation with stochastic convective forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De La Chevrotière, Michèle; Khouider, Boualem

2017-02-01

Idealized models of reduced complexity are important tools to understand key processes underlying a complex system. In climate science in particular, they are important for helping the community improve our ability to predict the effect of climate change on the earth system. Climate models are large computer codes based on the discretization of the fluid dynamics equations on grids of horizontal resolution in the order of 100 km, whereas unresolved processes are handled by subgrid models. For instance, simple models are routinely used to help understand the interactions between small-scale processes due to atmospheric moist convection and large-scale circulation patterns. Here, a zonally symmetric model for the monsoon circulation is presented and solved numerically. The model is based on the Galerkin projection of the primitive equations of atmospheric synoptic dynamics onto the first modes of vertical structure to represent free tropospheric circulation and is coupled to a bulk atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) model. The model carries bulk equations for water vapor in both the free troposphere and the ABL, while the processes of convection and precipitation are represented through a stochastic model for clouds. The model equations are coupled through advective nonlinearities, and the resulting system is not conservative and not necessarily hyperbolic. This makes the design of a numerical method for the solution of this system particularly difficult. Here, we develop a numerical scheme based on the operator time-splitting strategy, which decomposes the system into three pieces: a conservative part and two purely advective parts, each of which is solved iteratively using an appropriate method. The conservative system is solved via a central scheme, which does not require hyperbolicity since it avoids the Riemann problem by design. One of the advective parts is a hyperbolic diagonal matrix, which is easily handled by classical methods for hyperbolic equations, while the other advective part is a nilpotent matrix, which is solved via the method of lines. Validation tests using a synthetic exact solution are presented, and formal second-order convergence under grid refinement is demonstrated. Moreover, the model is tested under realistic monsoon conditions, and the ability of the model to simulate key features of the monsoon circulation is illustrated in two distinct parameter regimes.

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Multi-scale Predictability with a New Coupled Non-hydrostatic Global Model over the Arctic Annual Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

tropopause polar vortices, which are prevalent circulation features over the Arctic that play a major role in the evolution of surface pressure anomalies...pressure and tropospheric circulation anomalies and will allow us to answer specific questions regarding its ability to reproduce the appropriate AO... circulation patterns (Fig. 1c). While the mean patterns are favorable regarding the ability of MPAS to encapsulate the overall patterns of these two

Optimal Geoid Modelling to determine the Mean Ocean Circulation - Project Overview and early Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fecher, Thomas; Knudsen, Per; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Gruber, Thomas; Maximenko, Nikolai; Pie, Nadege; Siegismund, Frank; Stammer, Detlef

2017-04-01

The ESA project GOCE-OGMOC (Optimal Geoid Modelling based on GOCE and GRACE third-party mission data and merging with altimetric sea surface data to optimally determine Ocean Circulation) examines the influence of the satellite missions GRACE and in particular GOCE in ocean modelling applications. The project goal is an improved processing of satellite and ground data for the preparation and combination of gravity and altimetry data on the way to an optimal MDT solution. Explicitly, the two main objectives are (i) to enhance the GRACE error modelling and optimally combine GOCE and GRACE [and optionally terrestrial/altimetric data] and (ii) to integrate the optimal Earth gravity field model with MSS and drifter information to derive a state-of-the art MDT including an error assessment. The main work packages referring to (i) are the characterization of geoid model errors, the identification of GRACE error sources, the revision of GRACE error models, the optimization of weighting schemes for the participating data sets and finally the estimation of an optimally combined gravity field model. In this context, also the leakage of terrestrial data into coastal regions shall be investigated, as leakage is not only a problem for the gravity field model itself, but is also mirrored in a derived MDT solution. Related to (ii) the tasks are the revision of MSS error covariances, the assessment of the mean circulation using drifter data sets and the computation of an optimal geodetic MDT as well as a so called state-of-the-art MDT, which combines the geodetic MDT with drifter mean circulation data. This paper presents an overview over the project results with focus on the geodetic results part.

Projected shifts in copepod surface communities in the Mediterranean Sea under several climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedetti, F.; Guilhaumon, F.; Adloff, F.; Irisson, J. O.; Ayata, S. D.

2016-02-01

Although future increases in water temperature and future changes in regional circulation are expected to have great impacts on the pelagic food-web, estimates focusing on community-level shifts are still lacking for the planktonic compartment. By combining statistical niche models (or species distribution models) with projections from a regional circulation model, the impact of climate change on copepod epipelagic communities is assessed for the Mediterranean Sea. Habitat suitability maps are generated for 106 of the most abundant copepod species to analyze emerging patterns of diversity at the community level. Using variance analysis, we also quantified the uncertainties associated to our modeling strategy (niche model choice, CO2 emission scenario, boundary forcings of the circulation model). Comparing present and future projections, changes in species richness (alpha diversity) and in community composition (beta diversity, decomposed into turnover and nestedness component) are calculated. Average projections show that copepod communities will mainly experience turn-over processes, with little changes in species richness. Species gains are mainly located in the Gulf of Lions, the Northern Adriatic and the Northern Aegean seas. However, projections are highly variable, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We show that such variability is mainly driven by the choice of the niche model, through interactions with the CO2 emission scenario or the boundary forcing of the circulation model can be locally important. Finally, the possible impact of the estimated community changes on zooplanktonic functional and phylogenetic diversity is also assessed. We encourage the enlargement of this type of study to other components of the pelagic food-web, and argue that niche models' outputs should always be given along with a measure of uncertainty, and explained in light of a strong theoretical background.

The Relationship of Loss, Mean Age of Air and the Distribution of CFC's to Stratospheric Circulation and Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Jackman, C. H.; Gupta, M. L.; Newman, P. A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Fleming, E. L.

2008-01-01

Model-derived estimates of the annually integrated destruction and lifetime for various ozone depleting substances (ODSs) depend on the simulated stratospheric transport and mixing in the global model used to produce the estimate. Observations in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere show that the mean age of an air parcel (i.e., the time since its stratospheric entry) is related to the fractional release for the ODs (i.e., the amount of the ODS that has been destroyed relative to the amount at the time of stratospheric entry). We use back trajectory calculations to produce an age spectrum, and explain the relationship between the mean age and the fractional release by showing that older elements in the age spectrum have experienced higher altitudes and greater ODs destruction than younger elements. In our study, models with faster circulations produce distributions for the age-of-air that are 'young' compared to a distribution derived from observations. These models also fail to reproduce the observed relationship between the mean age of air and the fractional release. Models with slower circulations produce both realistic distributions for mean age and a realistic relationship between mean age and fractional release. These models also produce a CFCl3 lifetime of approximately 56 years, longer than the 45 year lifetime used to project future mixing ratios. We find that the use of flux boundary conditions in assessment models would have several advantages, including consistency between ODS evolution and simulated loss even if the simulated residual circulation changes due to climate change.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 16; Filtering Techniques on a Stretched Grid General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takacs, Lawrence L.; Sawyer, William; Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Fox-Rabinowitz, Michael S.

1999-01-01

This report documents the techniques used to filter quantities on a stretched grid general circulation model. Standard high-latitude filtering techniques (e.g., using an FFT (Fast Fourier Transformations) to decompose and filter unstable harmonics at selected latitudes) applied on a stretched grid are shown to produce significant distortions of the prognostic state when used to control instabilities near the pole. A new filtering technique is developed which accurately accounts for the non-uniform grid by computing the eigenvectors and eigenfrequencies associated with the stretching. A filter function, constructed to selectively damp those modes whose associated eigenfrequencies exceed some critical value, is used to construct a set of grid-spaced weights which are shown to effectively filter without distortion. Both offline and GCM (General Circulation Model) experiments are shown using the new filtering technique. Finally, a brief examination is also made on the impact of applying the Shapiro filter on the stretched grid.

Heat flow bounds over the Cascadia margin derived from bottom simulating reflectors and implications for thermal models of subduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phrampus, Benjamin J.; Harris, Robert N.; Tréhu, Anne M.

2017-09-01

Understanding the thermal structure of the Cascadia subduction zone is important for understanding megathrust earthquake processes and seismogenic potential. Currently our understanding of the thermal structure of Cascadia is limited by a lack of high spatial resolution heat flow data and by poor understanding of thermal processes such as hydrothermal fluid circulation in the subducting basement, sediment thickening and dewatering, and frictional heat generation on the plate boundary. Here, using a data set of publically available seismic lines combined with new interpretations of bottom simulating reflector (BSR) distributions, we derive heat flow estimates across the Cascadia margin. Thermal models that account for hydrothermal circulation predict BSR-derived heat flow bounds better than purely conductive models, but still over-predict surface heat flows. We show that when the thermal effects of in-situ sedimentation and of sediment thickening and dewatering due to accretion are included, models with hydrothermal circulation become consistent with our BSR-derived heat flow bounds.

Numerical simulation of isolation of cancer cells in a microfluidic chip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djukic, T.; Topalovic, M.; Filipovic, N.

2015-08-01

Cancer is a disease that is characterized by the uncontrolled increase of numbers of cells. Circulating tumour cells (CTCs) are separated from the primary tumor, circulate in the bloodstream and form metastases. Circulating tumor cells can be identified in the blood of a patient by taking a blood sample. Microfluidic chips are a new technique that is used to isolate these cells from the blood sample. In this paper a numerical model is presented that is able to simulate the motion of individual cells through a microfluidic chip. The proposed numerical model gives very valuable insight into the processes happening within a microfluidic chip. The accuracy of the proposed model is compared with experimental results. The experimental setup that is described in literature is used to create identical geometrical domains and define simulation parameters. A good agreement of experimental and numerical results demonstrates that the proposed model can be successfully used to simulate complex behaviour of CTCs inside microfluidic chips.

Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Simulation of a 2D Circulation Control Wind Tunnel Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allan, Brian G.; Jones, Greg; Lin, John C.

2011-01-01

Numerical simulations are performed using a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver for a circulation control airfoil. 2D and 3D simulation results are compared to a circulation control wind tunnel test conducted at the NASA Langley Basic Aerodynamics Research Tunnel (BART). The RANS simulations are compared to a low blowing case with a jet momentum coefficient, C(sub u), of 0:047 and a higher blowing case of 0.115. Three dimensional simulations of the model and tunnel walls show wall effects on the lift and airfoil surface pressures. These wall effects include a 4% decrease of the midspan sectional lift for the C(sub u) 0.115 blowing condition. Simulations comparing the performance of the Spalart Allmaras (SA) and Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence models are also made, showing the SST model compares best to the experimental data. A Rotational/Curvature Correction (RCC) to the turbulence model is also evaluated demonstrating an improvement in the CFD predictions.

Modelling the baroclinic circulation with tidal components in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guarnieri, A.; Pinardi, N.; Oddo, P.; Bortoluzzi, G.; Ravaioli, M.

2012-04-01

The impact of tides in the circulation of the Adriatic sea has been investigated by means of a nested baroclinic numerical ocean model. Tides have been introduced using a modified Flather boundary condition at the open side of the domain. The results show that tidal amplitudes and phases are reproduced correctly by the baroclinic model and the tidal harmonic constants errors are comparable with those resulting from the most consolidated barotropic models. Numerical experiments were conducted to estimate and assess the impact of (i) the modified Flather lateral boundary condition, (ii) the tides on temperature, salinity and stratification structures in the basin, and (iii) the tides on mixing and circulation in general. Tides induce a different momentum advective component in the basin which in turn produces a different distribution of water masses in the basin. Tides impact on mixing and stratification in the Po river region (north-western Adriatic) and induce fluctuations of salinity and temperature on semidiurnal frequencies in all seasons for the first and only winter for the second.

Simulating pathways of subsurface oil in the Faroe-Shetland Channel using an ocean general circulation model.

PubMed

Main, C E; Yool, A; Holliday, N P; Popova, E E; Jones, D O B; Ruhl, H A

2017-01-15

Little is known about the fate of subsurface hydrocarbon plumes from deep-sea oil well blowouts and their effects on processes and communities. As deepwater drilling expands in the Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC), oil well blowouts are a possibility, and the unusual ocean circulation of this region presents challenges to understanding possible subsurface oil pathways in the event of a spill. Here, an ocean general circulation model was used with a particle tracking algorithm to assess temporal variability of the oil-plume distribution from a deep-sea oil well blowout in the FSC. The drift of particles was first tracked for one year following release. Then, ambient model temperatures were used to simulate temperature-mediated biodegradation, truncating the trajectories of particles accordingly. Release depth of the modeled subsurface plumes affected both their direction of transport and distance travelled from their release location, and there was considerable interannual variability in transport. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Latest on the Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model: Capabilities and Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brecht, A. S.; Bougher, S. W.; Parkinson, C. D.

2017-01-01

Venus has a complex and dynamic upper atmosphere. This has been observed many times by ground-based, orbiters, probes, and fly-by missions going to other planets. Two over-arching questions are generally asked when examining the Venus upper atmosphere: (1) what creates the complex structure in the atmosphere, and (2) what drives the varying dynamics. A great way to interpret and connect observations to address these questions utilizes numerical modeling; and in the case of the middle and upper atmosphere (above the cloud tops), a 3D hydrodynamic numerical model called the Venus Thermospheric General Circulation Model (VTGCM) can be used. The VTGCM can produce climatological averages of key features in comparison to observations (i.e. nightside temperature, O2 IR nightglow emission). More recently, the VTGCM has been expanded to include new chemical constituents and airglow emissions, as well as new parameterizations to address waves and their impact on the varying global circulation and corresponding airglow distributions.

A Pacific Ocean general circulation model for satellite data assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Y.; Halpern, D.; Mechoso, C. R.

1991-01-01

A tropical Pacific Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to be used in satellite data assimilation studies is described. The transfer of the OGCM from a CYBER-205 at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to a CRAY-2 at NASA's Ames Research Center is documented. Two 3-year model integrations from identical initial conditions but performed on those two computers are compared. The model simulations are very similar to each other, as expected, but the simulations performed with the higher-precision CRAY-2 is smoother than that with the lower-precision CYBER-205. The CYBER-205 and CRAY-2 use 32 and 64-bit mantissa arithmetic, respectively. The major features of the oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific, namely the North Equatorial Current, the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current, and the Equatorial Undercurrent, are realistically produced and their seasonal cycles are described. The OGCM provides a powerful tool for study of tropical oceans and for the assimilation of satellite altimetry data.

Prolonged effect of the stratospheric pathway in linking Barents-Kara Sea sea ice variability to the midlatitude circulation in a simplified model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Yutian; Smith, Karen L.

2018-01-01

To better understand the dynamical mechanism that accounts for the observed lead-lag correlation between the early winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice variability and the later winter midlatitude circulation response, a series of experiments are conducted using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model with a prescribed idealized near-surface heating over the BKS. A prolonged effect is found in the idealized experiments following the near-surface heating and can be explicitly attributed to the stratospheric pathway and the long time scale in the stratosphere. The analysis of the Eliassen-Palm flux shows that, as a result of the imposed heating and linear constructive interference, anomalous upward propagating planetary-scale waves are excited and weaken the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists for approximately 1-2 months accompanied by downward migration to the troposphere and the surface. This downward migration largely amplifies and extends the low-level jet deceleration in the midlatitudes and cold air advection over central Asia. The idealized model experiments also suggest that the BKS region is the most effective in affecting the midlatitude circulation than other regions over the Arctic.

Estimation and Validation of \\delta18O Global Distribution with Rayleigh-type two Dimensional Isotope Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, K.; Oki, T.; Ohte, N.; Kanae, S.; Ichiyanagi, K.

2004-12-01

A simple water isotope circulation model on a global scale that includes a Rayleigh equation and the use of _grealistic_h external meteorological forcings estimates short-term variability of precipitation 18O. The results are validated by Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) monthly observations and by daily observations at three sites in Thailand. This good agreement highlights the importance of large scale transport and mixing of vapor masses as a control factor for spatial and temporal variability of precipitation isotopes, rather than in-cloud micro processes. It also indicates the usefulness of the model and the isotopes observation databases for evaluation of two-dimensional atmospheric water circulation fields in forcing datasets. In this regard, two offline simulations for 1978-1993 with major reanalyses, i.e. NCEP and ERA15, were implemented, and the results show that, over Europe ERA15 better matched observations at both monthly and interannual time scales, mainly owing to better precipitation fields in ERA15, while in the tropics both produced similarly accurate isotopic fields. The isotope analyses diagnose accuracy of two-dimensional water circulation fields in datasets with a particular focus on precipitation processes.

Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

Tropical Pacific moisture variability: Its detection, synoptic structure and consequences in the general circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, James P.

1990-01-01

Satellite data analysis tools are developed and implemented for the diagnosis of atmospheric circulation systems over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The tools include statistical multi-variate procedures, a multi-spectral radiative transfer model, and the global spectral forecast model at NMC. Data include in-situ observations; satellite observations from VAS (moisture, infrared and visible) NOAA polar orbiters (including Tiros Operational Satellite System (TOVS) multi-channel sounding data and OLR grids) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR); and European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECHMWF) analyses. A primary goal is a better understanding of the relation between synoptic structures of the area, particularly tropical plumes, and the general circulation, especially the Hadley circulation. A second goal is the definition of the quantitative structure and behavior of all Pacific tropical synoptic systems. Finally, strategies are examined for extracting new and additional information from existing satellite observations. Although moisture structure is emphasized, thermal patterns are also analyzed. Both horizontal and vertical structures are studied and objective quantitative results are emphasized.

Borehole model for simulation transport geothermal heat with heat pipe system and with forced circulation of heat carrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakubský, Michal; Lenhard, Richard; Vantúch, Martin; Malcho, Milan

2012-04-01

In the call OPVaV-2008/2.2/01-SORO Operational Programme Research and Development - knowledge and technology transfer from research and development into practice (ITMS-26220220057), whose strategic goal is "Device to use low-potential geothermal heat without forced circulation of heat carrier deep in the well "in the Department of Energy laboratory techniques to construct a simulator of transport low potential of geothermal energy in comparative test-drilling in the laboratory. The article describes a device that was designed as a scale model of two deep boreholes each of which withdraws the earth's heat by heat transfer technology and heat carrier. Device using forced circulation of heat carrier will respond in the construction of equipment currently used to transport heat from deep borehole. As the heat carrier will be used CO2. Facilities without using forced circulation of heat carrier, the new technology, which will be used as heat carrier ammonia (NH3).

On the Origin of the Double-cell Meridional Circulation in the Solar Convection Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pipin, V. V.; Kosovichev, A. G.

2018-02-01

Recent advances in helioseismology, numerical simulations and mean-field theory of solar differential rotation have shown that the meridional circulation pattern may consist of two or more cells in each hemisphere of the convection zone. According to the mean-field theory the double-cell circulation pattern can result from the sign inversion of a nondiffusive part of the radial angular momentum transport (the so-called Λ-effect) in the lower part of the solar convection zone. Here, we show that this phenomenon can result from the radial inhomogeneity of the Coriolis number, which depends on the convective turnover time. We demonstrate that if this effect is taken into account then the solar-like differential rotation and the double-cell meridional circulation are both reproduced by the mean-field model. The model is consistent with the distribution of turbulent velocity correlations determined from observations by tracing motions of sunspots and large-scale magnetic fields, indicating that these tracers are rooted just below the shear layer.

What Drives the Variability of the Atlantic Water Circulation in the Arctic Ocean?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lique, C.; Johnson, H. L.

2016-02-01

The Atlantic Water (AW) layer in the Arctic Basin is isolated from the atmosphere by the overlaying surface layer; yet observations of the AW pan-Arctic boundary current have revealed that the velocities in this layer exhibit significant variations on all timescales. Here, analysis of a global ocean/sea ice model hindcast, complemented by experiments performed with an idealized process model, are used to investigate what controls the variability of AW circulation, with a focus on the role of wind forcing. The AW circulation carries the imprint of wind variations, both remotely over the Nordic and Barents seas where they force variability on the AW inflow to the Arctic Basin, and locally over the Arctic Basin through the forcing of the wind-driven Beaufort gyre, which modulates and transfers the wind variability to the AW layer. Our results further suggest that understanding variability in the large amount of heat contained within the AW layer requires a better understanding of the circulation within both AW and surface layers.

Use of Ocean Remote Sensing Data to Enhance Predictions with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.

1999-01-01

Surface height, sea surface temperature and surface wind observations from satellites have given a detailed time sequence of the initiation and evolution of the 1997/98 El Nino. The data have beet complementary to the subsurface TAO moored data in their spatial resolution and extent. The impact of satellite observations on seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model will be presented.

Near-inertial Wave Studies Using Historical Mooring Records and a High-Resolution General Circulation Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-30

Mooring Records and a High- Resolution General Circulation Model Harper Simmons School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences 903 Koyukuk Drive Fairbanks AK...oceanographic community has been to develop a global internal wave prediction system analogous to those already in place for surface waves. Early steps have... Fisheries and Ocean Sciences,903 Koyukuk Drive,Fairbanks,AK,99775 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND

Estimation and Validation of Oceanic Mass Circulation from the GRACE Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boy, J.-P.; Rowlands, D. D.; Sabaka, T. J.; Luthcke, S. B.; Lemoine, F. G.

2011-01-01

Since the launch of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) in March 2002, the Earth's surface mass variations have been monitored with unprecedented accuracy and resolution. Compared to the classical spherical harmonic solutions, global high-resolution mascon solutions allows the retrieval of mass variations with higher spatial and temporal sampling (2 degrees and 10 days). We present here the validation of the GRACE global mascon solutions by comparing mass estimates to a set of about 100 ocean bottom pressure (OSP) records, and show that the forward modelling of continental hydrology prior to the inversion of the K-band range rate data allows better estimates of ocean mass variations. We also validate our GRACE results to OSP variations modelled by different state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models, including ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) and operational and reanalysis from the MERCATOR project.

Mars dust storms - Interannual variability and chaos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Lyons, James R.

1993-01-01

The hypothesis is that the global climate system, consisting of atmospheric dust interacting with the circulation, produces its own interannual variability when forced at the annual frequency. The model has two time-dependent variables representing the amount of atmospheric dust in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Absorption of sunlight by the dust drives a cross-equatorial Hadley cell that brings more dust into the heated hemisphere. The circulation decays when the dust storm covers the globe. Interannual variability manifests itself either as a periodic solution in which the period is a multiple of the Martian year, or as an aperiodic (chaotic) solution that never repeats. Both kinds of solution are found in the model, lending support to the idea that interannual variability is an intrinsic property of the global climate system. The next step is to develop a hierarchy of dust-circulation models capable of being integrated for many years.

Drying Characteristics and Water-soluble Polysaccharides Evaluation of Kidney Shape Ganoderma lucidum Drying in Air Circulation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyo, D. J.; Jatmiko, T. H.; Poeloengasih, C. D.; Kismurtono, M.

2017-12-01

In this project, drying kinetic of kidney shape Ganoderma lucidum fruiting body in air circulation system was studied. The drying experiments were conducted at 40, 50 and 60°C with air flow rate of 1.3 ms-1. Samples were weighted periodically until no change in sample weight was recorded, and then the samples were analyzed for its moisture content. Four different thin-layer mathematical models (Newton, Page, Two-term, Midilli) were used and compare to evaluate the drying curves of kidney shape G. lucidum. The water-soluble polysaccharides were evaluated in order to find the best drying temperature condition. The results indicates that Midilli model was the fittest model to describe the characteristic of kidney shape G. lucidum in the air circulation drying system and temperature of 50°C was the best drying condition to get highest value of water-soluble polysaccharides.

Ocean Data Assimilation in Support of Climate Applications: Status and Perspectives.

PubMed

Stammer, D; Balmaseda, M; Heimbach, P; Köhl, A; Weaver, A

2016-01-01

Ocean data assimilation brings together observations with known dynamics encapsulated in a circulation model to describe the time-varying ocean circulation. Its applications are manifold, ranging from marine and ecosystem forecasting to climate prediction and studies of the carbon cycle. Here, we address only climate applications, which range from improving our understanding of ocean circulation to estimating initial or boundary conditions and model parameters for ocean and climate forecasts. Because of differences in underlying methodologies, data assimilation products must be used judiciously and selected according to the specific purpose, as not all related inferences would be equally reliable. Further advances are expected from improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information in data assimilation systems. Ultimately, data assimilation into coupled climate system components is needed to support ocean and climate services. However, maintaining the infrastructure and expertise for sustained data assimilation remains challenging.

Responses of East Asian Summer Monsoon to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in the 17 Latest CMIP5 Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Fengfei; Zhou, Tianjun; Qian, Yun

2014-01-31

In this study, we examined the responses of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) to natural (solar variability and volcanic aerosols) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gasses and aerosols) forcings simulated in the 17 latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 (CMIP5) models with 105 realizations. The observed weakening trend of low-level EASM circulation during 1958-2001 is partly reproduced under all-forcing runs. A comparison of separate forcing experiments reveals that the aerosol-forcing plays a primary role in driving the weakened low-level monsoon circulation. The preferential cooling over continental East Asia caused by aerosol affects the monsoon circulation through reducing the land-sea thermal contrastmore » and results in higher sea level pressure over northern China. In the upper-level, both natural-forcing and aerosol-forcing contribute to the observed southward shift of East Asian subtropical jet through changing the meridional temperature gradient.« less

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

The Effect of Enhanced Diabatic Heating on Stratospheric Circulation. Degree awarded by Michigan University, 1997.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleb, Mary M.

1997-01-01

The objective of this research focuses on the stratospheric dynamical response to the increase in aerosol loading and subsequent enhanced diabatic heating resulting from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. The Langley research Center three dimensional general circulation model and modifications made to that model for this study are described (addition of hydrogen fluoride tracer and diabatic heating enhancement). Unperturbed hydrogen fluoride distribution is compared to the hydrogen fluoride distribution measured by HALOE. A comparison of control and perturbed model runs is presented.

Experience with a vectorized general circulation weather model on Star-100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soll, D. B.; Habra, N. R.; Russell, G. L.

1977-01-01

A version of an atmospheric general circulation model was vectorized to run on a CDC STAR 100. The numerical model was coded and run in two different vector languages, CDC and LRLTRAN. A factor of 10 speed improvement over an IBM 360/95 was realized. Efficient use of the STAR machine required some redesigning of algorithms and logic. This precludes the application of vectorizing compilers on the original scalar code to achieve the same results. Vector languages permit a more natural and efficient formulation for such numerical codes.

Quantitative Prediction of Drug–Drug Interactions Involving Inhibitory Metabolites in Drug Development: How Can Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling Help?

PubMed Central

Chen, Y; Mao, J; Lin, J; Yu, H; Peters, S; Shebley, M

2016-01-01

This subteam under the Drug Metabolism Leadership Group (Innovation and Quality Consortium) investigated the quantitative role of circulating inhibitory metabolites in drug–drug interactions using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. Three drugs with major circulating inhibitory metabolites (amiodarone, gemfibrozil, and sertraline) were systematically evaluated in addition to the literature review of recent examples. The application of PBPK modeling in drug interactions by inhibitory parent–metabolite pairs is described and guidance on strategic application is provided. PMID:27642087

Coupling biology and oceanography in models.

PubMed

Fennel, W; Neumann, T

2001-08-01

The dynamics of marine ecosystems, i.e. the changes of observable chemical-biological quantities in space and time, are driven by biological and physical processes. Predictions of future developments of marine systems need a theoretical framework, i.e. models, solidly based on research and understanding of the different processes involved. The natural way to describe marine systems theoretically seems to be the embedding of chemical-biological models into circulation models. However, while circulation models are relatively advanced the quantitative theoretical description of chemical-biological processes lags behind. This paper discusses some of the approaches and problems in the development of consistent theories and indicates the beneficial potential of the coupling of marine biology and oceanography in models.

Investigating Downscaling Methods and Evaluating Climate Models for Use in Estimating Regional Water Resources in Mountainous Regions under Changing Climatic Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frei, Allan; Nolin, Anne W.; Serreze, Mark C.; Armstrong, Richard L.; McGinnis, David L.; Robinson, David A.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this three-year study is to develop and evaluate techniques to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of climate change in mountainous areas. Three main objectives are set out in the proposal. (1) To develop and evaluate transfer functions to link tropospheric circulation to regional snowfall. (2) To evaluate a suite of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for use in estimating synoptic scale circulation and the resultant regional snowfall. And (3) to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of changing climate in the two case study areas: the Upper Colorado River basin, and the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York State. Both regions provide water to large populations.

The Dynamics of Hadley Circulation Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Nicholas Alexander

The Hadley circulation exerts a dominant control on the surface climate of earth's tropical belt. Its converging surface winds fuel the tropical rains, while subsidence in the subtropics dries and stabilizes the atmosphere, creating deserts on land and stratocumulus decks over the oceans. Because of the strong meridional gradients in temperature and precipitation in the subtropics, any shift in the Hadley circulation edge could project as major changes in surface climate. While climate model simulations predict an expansion of the Hadley cells in response to greenhouse gas forcings, the mechanisms remain elusive. An analysis of the climatology, variability, and response of the Hadley circulation to radiative forcings in climate models and reanalyses illuminates the broader landscape in which Hadley cell expansion is realized. The expansion is a fundamental response of the atmosphere to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations as it scales with other key climate system changes, including polar amplification, increasing static stability, stratospheric cooling, and increasing global-mean surface temperatures. Multiple measures of the Hadley circulation edge latitudes co-vary with the latitudes of the eddy-driven jets on all timescales, and both exhibit a robust poleward shift in response to forcings. Further, across models there is a robust coupling between the eddy-driving on the Hadley cells and their width. On the other hand, the subtropical jet and tropopause break latitudes, two common observational proxies for the tropical belt edges, lack a strong statistical relationship with the Hadley cell edges and have no coherent response to forcings. This undermines theories for the Hadley cell width predicated on angular momentum conservation and calls for a new framework for understanding Hadley cell expansion. A numerical framework is developed within an idealized general circulation model to isolate the mean flow and eddy responses of the global atmosphere to radiative forcings. It is found that it is primarily the eddy response to greenhouse-gas-like forcings that causes Hadley cell expansion. However, the mean flow changes in the Hadley circulation itself crucially mediate this eddy response such that the full response comes about due to eddy-mean flow interactions. A theoretical scaling for the Hadley cell width based on moist static energy is developed to provide an improved framework to understand climate change responses of the general circulation. The scaling predicts that expansion is driven by increases in the surface latent heat flux and the width of the rising branch of the circulation and opposed by increases in tropospheric radiative cooling. A reduction in subtropical moist static energy flux divergence by the eddies is key, as it tilts the energetic balance in favor of expansion.

Progress toward a circulation atlas for application to coastal water siting problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munday, J. C., Jr.; Gordon, H. H.

1978-01-01

Circulation data needed to resolve coastal siting problems are assembled from historical hydrographic and remote sensing studies in the form of a Circulation Atlas. Empirical data are used instead of numerical model simulations to achieve fine resolution and include fronts and convergence zones. Eulerian and Langrangian data are collected, transformed, and combined into trajectory maps and current vector maps as a function of tidal phase and wind vector. Initial Atlas development is centered on the Elizabeth River, Hampton Roads, Virgina.

Mock Circulatory System of the Fontan Circulation to Study Respiration Effects on Venous Flow Behavior

PubMed Central

Vukicevic, M.; Chiulli, J.A.; Conover, T.; Pennati, G.; Hsia, T.Y.; Figliola, R.S.

2013-01-01

We describe an in vitro model of the Fontan circulation with respiration to study subdiaphragmatic venous flow behavior. The venous and arterial connections of a total cavopulmonary connection (TCPC) test section were coupled with a physical lumped parameter (LP) model of the circulation. Intrathoracic and subdiaphragmatic pressure changes associated with normal breathing were applied. This system was tuned for two patients (5 years, 0.67 m2; 10 years, 1.2 m2) to physiological values. System function was verified by comparison to the analytical model on which it was based and by consistency with published clinical measurements. Overall, subdiaphragmatic venous flow was influenced by respiration. Flow within the arteries and veins increased during inspiration but decreased during expiration with retrograde flow in the inferior venous territories. System pressures and flows showed close agreement with the analytical LP model (p < 0.05). The ratio of the flow rates occurring during inspiration to expiration were within the clinical range of values reported elsewhere. The approach used to setup and control the model was effective and provided reasonable comparisons with clinical data. PMID:23644612

Parameter estimation of anisotropic Manning's n coefficient for advanced circulation (ADCIRC) modeling of estuarine river currents (lower St. Johns River)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Henok K.; Bacopoulos, Peter

2017-05-01

A rich dataset of time- and space-varying velocity measurements for a macrotidal estuary was used in the development of a vector-based formulation of bottom roughness in the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The updates to the parallel code of ADCIRC to include directionally based drag coefficient are briefly discussed in the paper, followed by an application of the data assimilation (nudging analysis) to the lower St. Johns River (northeastern Florida) for parameter estimation of anisotropic Manning's n coefficient. The method produced converging estimates of Manning's n values for ebb (0.0290) and flood (0.0219) when initialized with uniform and isotropic setting of 0.0200. Modeled currents, water levels and flows were improved at observation locations where data were assimilated as well as at monitoring locations where data were not assimilated, such that the method increases model skill locally and non-locally with regard to the data locations. The methodology is readily transferrable to other circulation/estuary models, given pre-developed quality mesh/grid and adequate data available for assimilation.

Secondary Gravity Waves in the Winter Mesosphere: Results From a High-Resolution Global Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Erich; Vadas, Sharon L.

2018-03-01

This study analyzes a new high-resolution general circulation model with regard to secondary gravity waves in the mesosphere during austral winter. The model resolves gravity waves down to horizontal and vertical wavelengths of 165 and 1.5 km, respectively. The resolved mean wave drag agrees well with that from a conventional model with parameterized gravity waves up to the midmesosphere in winter and up to the upper mesosphere in summer. About half of the zonal-mean vertical flux of westward momentum in the southern winter stratosphere is due to orographic gravity waves. The high intermittency of the primary orographic gravity waves gives rise to secondary waves that result in a substantial eastward drag in the winter mesopause region. This induces an additional eastward maximum of the mean zonal wind at z ˜ 100 km. Radar and lidar measurements at polar latitudes and results from other high-resolution global models are consistent with this finding. Hence, secondary gravity waves may play a significant role in the general circulation of the winter mesopause region.

Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

CISOCUR - Residence time modelling in the Curonian Lagoon and validation through stable isotope measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umgiesser, Georg; Razinkovas-Baziukas, Arturas; Zemlys, Petras; Ertürk, Ali; Mėžinė, Jovita

2015-04-01

The spatial pattern of the hydrodynamic circulation of the Curonian lagoon, the largest European coastal lagoon, is still little understood. In absence of automatic current registration data all the existing models relied mostly on such data as water levels leaving high level of uncertainty. Here we present CISOCUR, a new project financed by European Social Fund under the Global Grant measure. The project applies a new methodology that uses the carbon stable isotope (SI) ratio of C12 and C13 that characterize different water sources entering the lagoon and may be altered by internal kinetic processes. Through the tracing of these isotope ratios different water masses can be identified. This gives the possibility to validate several hypotheses of water circulation and validate hydrodynamic models. In particular it will be possible to 1) trace water masses entering the lagoon through the Nemunas and the Klaipeda strait; 2) test the hypothesis of sediment transport mechanisms inside the lagoon; 3) evaluate the importance of physical forcing on the lagoon circulation. The use of a hydrodynamic finite element model, coupled with the SI method, will allow for a realistic description of the transport processes inside the Curonian lagoon. So the main research goal is to apply the stable isotope tracers and a finite element model to determine the circulation patterns in the Curonian lagoon. Here we show how the SI analysis was used to validate the hydrodynamic model on the basis of residence time. The average residence time of the Nemunas waters is estimated through SI data and is then compared with the model data computed through standard algorithms. Seasonal changes of carbon content are taken care of through a preliminary application of a carbon kinetic model. The results are compared to literature data.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

A combined observational and modeling approach to the study of coastal areas: the case of the Gulf of Trieste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosoli, Simone; Licer, Matjaz; Malacic, Vlado; Papapostolou, Alexandros; Axaopoulos, Panagiotis

2015-04-01

During the last decade high-frequency (HF) radar systems have been installed operationally throughout the world, and extensive validation efforts have proven their reliability in mapping near-surface currents at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Nowadays, they are considered as a reliable benchmark for the validation of numerical circulation models and of tidal current models. Similarly to HFR data, ocean circulation models are now considered reliable tools that are routinely put into operational use to provide a wide range of products of public interest. To insure the scientific integrity, assessing the skill of the model products is a crucial point, especially in coastal areas where tidal processes (such as currents or mixing) are important, bathymetry and changes in the vertical and horizontal structure of temperature, salinity, and density due either to seasonal variations or impulsive-type freshwater input are also critical. Here we present the case of the Gulf of Trieste, northern Adriatic Sea, a complex coastal region in which circulation is controlled by a number of complex processes that include tides, wind, waves and variations in river discharge with significant temporal variability. By comparing radar observations, data from moorings and coastal tide gauges, with the output of different circulation models (NAPOM -an operational version of Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for the Northern Adriatic; and OTPS, a barotropic tidal model for the Northern Adriatic), we show that: HFR observations and model simulations are complementary tools in complex coastal regions, in the sense that they reciprocally help accounting for their intrinsic limitations (i.e., lack of vertical resolution in HFR data; areas with significant topographic gradients for models); tidal models accurately describe tidal features in the region; and that existing intrinsic data-model discrepancies can be interpreted and used to propose correction to the models.

Towards the impact of eddies on the response of the global ocean circulation to Southern Ocean gateway opening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viebahn, Jan; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

2014-05-01

During the past 65 Million (Ma) years, Earth's climate has undergone a major change from warm 'greenhouse' to colder 'icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The Eocene-Oligocene (~34 Ma) and Oligocene-Miocene (~23 Ma) boundaries reflect major transitions in Cenozoic global climate change. Proposed mechanisms of these transitions include reorganization of ocean circulation due to critical gateway opening/deepening, changes in atmospheric CO2-concentration, and feedback mechanisms related to land-ice formation. A long-standing hypothesis is that the formation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current due to opening/deepening of Southern Ocean gateways led to glaciation of the Antarctic continent. However, while this hypothesis remains controversial, its assessment via coupled climate model simulations depends crucially on the spatial resolution in the ocean component. More precisely, only high-resolution modeling of the turbulent ocean circulation is capable of adequately describing reorganizations in the ocean flow field and related changes in turbulent heat transport. In this study, for the first time results of a high-resolution (0.1° horizontally) realistic global ocean model simulation with a closed Drake Passage are presented. Changes in global ocean temperatures, heat transport, and ocean circulation (e.g., Meridional Overturning Circulation and Antarctic Coastal Current) are established by comparison with an open Drake Passage high-resolution reference simulation. Finally, corresponding low-resolution simulations are also analyzed. The results highlight the essential impact of the ocean eddy field in palaeoclimatic change.

A Forecast Skill Comparison between CliPAS One-Tier and Two-Tier Hindcast Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Wang, B.; Kang, I.

2006-05-01

A 24-year (1981-2004) MME hindcast experimental dataset is produced under the "Climate Prediction and Its Application to Society" (CliPAS) project sponsored by Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). This dataset consists of 5 one-tier model systems from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC), Seoul National University (SNU), and University of Hawaii (UH) and 5 two-tier model systems from Florida State University (FSU), Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Lab (GFDL), SNU, and UH. Multi-model Ensemble (MME) Forecast skills of seasonal precipitation and atmospheric circulation are compared between CliPAS one-tier and two-tier hindcast experiments for seasonal mean precipitation and atmospheric circulation. For winter prediction, two-tier MME has a comparable skill to one-tier MME. However, it is demonstrated that in the Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) heavy precipitation regions, one-tier systems are superior to two-tier systems in summer season. The reason is that inclusion of the local warm pool- monsoon interaction in the one-tier system improves the ENSO teleconnection with monsoon regions. Both one-tier and two-tier MME fail to predict Indian monsoon circulation, while they have a significantly good skill for the broad scale monsoon circulation defined by Webster and Yang index. One-tier system has a much better skill to predict the monsoon circulation over the western North pacific where air-sea interaction plays an important role than two-tier system.

A new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C. R.; Dowsett, H. J.; Scher, H. D.; Robinson, M. M.

2011-12-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.264 - 3.025 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history with sustained global temperatures in the range of warming predicted for the 21st century, providing an appealing analog with which to examine the Earth system changes we might encounter in the coming century. Ongoing sea surface and deep ocean temperature reconstructions and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model simulations by the USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Group identify a dramatic North Atlantic warm anomaly coupled with increased evaporation in the mid-Pliocene, possibly driving enhanced meridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Deep Water production. However deep ocean temperature is not a conclusive proxy for water mass, and most coupled model simulations predict transient decreases in North Atlantic Deep Water production in 21st century, presenting a contrasting picture of future warmer worlds. Here, we present early results from a new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene, using δ13C of benthic foraminifera as a proxy for water mass age and the neodymium isotopic imprint on fossil fish teeth as a proxy for water mass source region along a three-site depth transect from the Walvis Ridge (subtropical South Atlantic). The deep ocean circulation reconstructions resulting from this project will add a new dimension to the PRISM effort and will be useful for both initialization and evaluation of future model simulations.

Investigation of the effect of traditional Chinese medicine on pain and inflammation in chronic nonbacterial prostatitis in rats.

PubMed

Liu, Y-J; Song, G-H; Liu, G T

2016-08-01

According to traditional Chinese medicine, the symptoms of chronic nonbacterial prostatitis/chronic pelvic pain syndrome (CNP/CPPS) may be treated using a cocktail of herbs that stimulate blood circulation ('activating blood circulation formula'). We investigated the effect of three doses of this formula on a rat model of CNP/CPPS. Male Wistar rats were injected with a saline extract of male sex accessory glands on days 0 and 30 to induce prostatitis and then treated daily by gavage between days 32 and 60. Treatment with low, medium and high doses of activating blood circulation formula resulted in an almost total rescue of paw withdrawal threshold at day 60, and treatment with the highest dose also significantly decreased prostate inflammation (assessed histopathologically). We further observed elevated serum prostaglandin E2 levels in the CNP/CPPS model which decreased upon high-dose treatment, and increased Cox-2 expression in the prostate and spinal cord dorsal horn which was rescued in both tissues in the high-dose group and in the prostate in the medium-dose group. These results shed light on a possible mechanism by which activating blood circulation therapy may alleviate pain in a rat model of CNP/CPPS by downregulating Cox-2 expression in the spinal cord, thereby raising the pain threshold. Further research will be needed to fully characterise the mechanism by which activating blood circulation therapy produces this therapeutic effect. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

A Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model with Multi-cellular Meridional Circulation in Advection- and Diffusion-dominated Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belucz, Bernadett; Dikpati, Mausumi; Forgács-Dajka, Emese

2015-06-01

Babcock-Leighton type-solar dynamo models with single-celled meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solar cycle features. Recent observations and theoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celled flow pattern. We examine the role of complex multi-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes. We show from simulations that the presence of a weak, second, high-latitude reverse cell speeds up the cycle and slightly enhances the poleward branch in the butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cell in depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing to an antisolar type. A butterfly diagram constructed from the middle of convection zone yields a solar-like pattern, but this may be difficult to realize in the Sun because of magnetic buoyancy effects. Each of the above cases behaves similarly in higher and lower magnetic diffusivity regimes. However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing four cells in latitude behaves distinctly differently in the two regimes, producing solar-like butterfly diagrams with fast cycles in the higher diffusivity regime, and complex branches in butterfly diagrams in the lower diffusivity regime. We also find that dynamo solutions for a four-celled pattern, two in radius and two in latitude, prefer to quickly relax to quadrupolar parity if the bottom flow speed is strong enough, of similar order of magnitude as the surface flow speed.

A BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL WITH MULTI-CELLULAR MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION IN ADVECTION- AND DIFFUSION-DOMINATED REGIMES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belucz, Bernadett; Forgács-Dajka, Emese; Dikpati, Mausumi, E-mail: bbelucz@astro.elte.hu, E-mail: dikpati@ucar.edu

Babcock–Leighton type-solar dynamo models with single-celled meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solar cycle features. Recent observations and theoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celled flow pattern. We examine the role of complex multi-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock–Leighton solar dynamo in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes. We show from simulations that the presence of a weak, second, high-latitude reverse cell speeds up the cycle and slightly enhances the poleward branch in the butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cell in depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing to an antisolar type. A butterflymore » diagram constructed from the middle of convection zone yields a solar-like pattern, but this may be difficult to realize in the Sun because of magnetic buoyancy effects. Each of the above cases behaves similarly in higher and lower magnetic diffusivity regimes. However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing four cells in latitude behaves distinctly differently in the two regimes, producing solar-like butterfly diagrams with fast cycles in the higher diffusivity regime, and complex branches in butterfly diagrams in the lower diffusivity regime. We also find that dynamo solutions for a four-celled pattern, two in radius and two in latitude, prefer to quickly relax to quadrupolar parity if the bottom flow speed is strong enough, of similar order of magnitude as the surface flow speed.« less

Modeling options to manage type 1 wild poliovirus imported into Israel in 2013.

PubMed

Kalkowska, Dominika A; Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Grotto, Itamar; Shulman, Lester M; Anis, Emilia; Wassilak, Steven G F; Pallansch, Mark A; Thompson, Kimberly M

2015-06-01

After 25 years without poliomyelitis cases caused by circulating wild poliovirus (WPV) in Israel, sewage sampling detected WPV type 1 (WPV1) in April 2013, despite high vaccination coverage with only inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) since 2005. We used a differential equation-based model to simulate the dynamics of poliovirus transmission and population immunity in Israel due to past exposure to WPV and use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in addition to IPV. We explored the influences of various immunization options to stop imported WPV1 circulation in Israel. We successfully modeled the potential for WPVs to circulate without detected cases in Israel. Maintaining a sequential IPV/OPV schedule instead of switching to an IPV-only schedule in 2005 would have kept population immunity high enough in Israel to prevent WPV1 circulation. The Israeli response to WPV1 detection prevented paralytic cases; a more rapid response might have interrupted transmission more quickly. IPV-based protection alone might not provide sufficient population immunity to prevent poliovirus transmission after an importation. As countries transition to IPV in immunization schedules, they may need to actively manage population immunity and consider continued use of OPV, to avoid the potential circulation of imported live polioviruses before globally coordinated cessation of OPV use. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, M. A.; Casado, M. J.

2012-10-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes.

Wave–turbulence interaction-induced vertical mixing and its effects in ocean and climate models

PubMed Central

Qiao, Fangli; Yuan, Yeli; Deng, Jia; Dai, Dejun; Song, Zhenya

2016-01-01

Heated from above, the oceans are stably stratified. Therefore, the performance of general ocean circulation models and climate studies through coupled atmosphere–ocean models depends critically on vertical mixing of energy and momentum in the water column. Many of the traditional general circulation models are based on total kinetic energy (TKE), in which the roles of waves are averaged out. Although theoretical calculations suggest that waves could greatly enhance coexisting turbulence, no field measurements on turbulence have ever validated this mechanism directly. To address this problem, a specially designed field experiment has been conducted. The experimental results indicate that the wave–turbulence interaction-induced enhancement of the background turbulence is indeed the predominant mechanism for turbulence generation and enhancement. Based on this understanding, we propose a new parametrization for vertical mixing as an additive part to the traditional TKE approach. This new result reconfirmed the past theoretical model that had been tested and validated in numerical model experiments and field observations. It firmly establishes the critical role of wave–turbulence interaction effects in both general ocean circulation models and atmosphere–ocean coupled models, which could greatly improve the understanding of the sea surface temperature and water column properties distributions, and hence model-based climate forecasting capability. PMID:26953182